The set-up: Pittsburgh has won two straight, but I think it’ll have enough of a “letdown” here to let the hungry Browns sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Cleveland comes in off a tight 26-23 OT loss to Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh scored the difficult 28-21 road win over the Bengals. Note that these teams played to a 21-21 tie in Week 1.

The teams: Cleveland is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 25.3. QB Baker Mayfield has 1,291 passing yards and a 6/5 TD:INT. The Browns looked sharp defensively, posting four sacks and two INT’s against the high-flying Bucs.

Pittsburgh is averaging 28.5 PPG, but it’s allowing 25.7. QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,033 passing yards and a mediocre 12:6 TD/INT on the season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine following a SU win, while Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS the last four in this series. No outright, but expect a battle until the end. Grab the points.

The set-up: SDSU comes in on top form having won six straight and I look for it to keep the momentum rolling. Nevada broke a two-game slide against Hawaii in its latest outing, but I have a hard time seeing the Wolf Pack keeping pace with the Aztecs down the stretch.

The pick: Nevada is getting much better play in Jay Norvell’s second year as head coach (4-4 so far this season), but note that the Wolf Pack are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten against teams with winning records and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a SU victory. The Aztecs are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Also note that SDSU is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. The Wolf Pack have been a pleasant surprise, but I think they’re completely outclassed here. Lay the points.

The set-up: Washington has a lot of work ahead of it if it hopes to be invited to the College Football Playoff. It’s going to have to sweep the table and I think it’ll get things started with a big victory on the road against Cal. The Golden Bears return home off a 49-7 win over Oregon State. 

The teams: The Huskies come in off a 27-13 win over Colorado last week. QB Jake Browning had 150 yards passing with one TD and one INT. RB Salvon Ahmed had 73 yards and a TD as well. Through six games Washington is averaging 28.6 PPG and allowing only 15.6. 

Cal is averaging 26.7 PPG and it’s allowing 24. RB Chase Garbers had 234 passing yards and three TD’s last week. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cal is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four as as road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Terps come in off a 23-0 loss at Iowa, while Illinois fell 49-20 on the road at Wisconsin last weekend.

The teams: Illinois has struggled against the “better” conference competition this season, but it did smash Rutgers 38-17 on the road. The Illini also has a much more favorable schedule moving forward, vs. Maryland this weekend and then Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. The defense hasn’t been terrible either with 15 turnovers created through six games.

Maryland looked decent defensively in last weeks’ loss, holding the Hawkeyes to 310 total yards. But the offense was held to just seven first downs and 115 total yards. QB Kasim Hill has a weak 51.7 percent completion rate.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Maryland is interestingly just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous games, while Illinois is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss. The Terps offense is broken. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

The set-up: USC is short-handed and deflated after last week’s 41-28 road loss to Utah. USC is likely down to third-string QB Jack Sears as well. ASU is in last place in the South in the Pac 12 and it most recently comes in off a hard-fought 20-13 setback to Stanford.

The teams: ASU held the Cardinal to 358 total yards last week, but three costly turnovers proved to be the difference. Overall QB Manny Wilkins was competitive though, accounting for 394 yards of total offense.

The uncertainty at QB doesn’t bode well for a Trojans’ offense that’s still reeling from last week’s loss. Additionally note that USC is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss.

The pick: On the year Wilkins has 1,799 passing yards with 11 TD’s and only two INT’s. ASU is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss. I think the Trojans’ frustrating trend of “playing down” to the level of its competition continues this weekend. Grab the points.

The set-up: UNC enters hungry off a 40-37 road loss to Syracuse in OT to fall to 1-3 in conference play. Virginia comes in off a 28-14 road victory over Duke to move to 3-1 in league play. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tar Heels after the Cavs took last years contest on the road 20-14.

The teams: In last week’s loss the Tar Heels put up 500 yards of offense, including 321 through the air. QB Nathan Elliot had 321 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. The defense looked terrible, but the Cavs rank as one of the worst passing teams in the country.

Virginia gets the job done with tough defensive play, ranked 20th in points allowed with just 18.4. But the Tar Heels won’t be rolling over and UNC’s offense comes in on top form. Bryce Perkins has been decent, not great this season (but he hasn’t had to be, simply to manage.)

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games in which it gave up 40 points or more and lost in OT in its previous outing. No outright, but much closer than expected. Play on North Carolina.

The set-up: These two teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I expect those trends to continues here. Louisiana Tech has won two in a row, most recently 31-24 over UTEP, while FAU has lost three of its last four.

The teams: Louisiana Tech has never had an issue putting points on the board, but it’s now gotten some better defensive play of late as well, especially from DE Jaylon Ferguson in last week’s victory, as he’d posted 3.5 sacks.

The Owls most recently come in off a humbling 31-7 loss to Marshall, which for all intents and purposes has already eliminated them from repeating as Conf-USA Champs. But FAU has been hit hard by the injury bug this year, including to defensive stand out Azeez Al-Shaair. WR Dante Cousar suffered a broken leg in the loss to Mashall.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FAU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a loss by 20 or more points, while the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with losing records. A short week is not what the doctor ordered for FAU and while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’m going to grab the points in the end.

The set-up: Miami has lost three of its last four, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit, while Houston comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won four straight, most recently a commanding 20-7 win on the road over Jacksonville. On the short week, I believe points will be at a premium.

The teams: Miami was out gained 457-322 last week against a pretty bad Lions defense. And that doesn’t bode well this week facing a Texans’ defensive unit which is clearly “firing on all cylinders.” It wasn’t a pretty win last week by the Texans by any means, as they’d hold on for a slim 272-259 yardage edge in the victory.

The pick: Miami’s only hope on offense is to run the ball today (18th in the league in rushing, but it’s rushed for at least 100 yards in five of seven games.) Dolphins’ QB Ryan Tannehill is injured and Brock Osweiler is “hit or miss.” The Texans have been getting the job done by letting DeShaun Watson “manage” the offense and I don’t think anything will change this week either. Note that Miami has seen the total go “under” in three of its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: App State is on the AP Top 25 for the first time in its history and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Perhaps not enough of one to completely lose this one outright, but I do expect the hungry home side to go down fighting. In the end, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The teams: App State is 5-1, while Georgia Southern is 6-1. The Mountaineers have won five in a row after an OT loss at Penn State, but the offense which had put up at least 35 points during that run, didn’t last week against the Ragin’ Cajuns. Also note that the defense, which had limited four straight opponents to single digits in scoring, would then give up 17 points to Arkansas State. The Eagles are averaging 276.6 YPG on the ground, which is ranked fifth in the entire country. I believe the home side will have its opportunities to control the pace of this contest.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but App State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after four or more SU victories. Grab the points.

The set-up: WVU comes in off a humbling loss to Iowa State and I believe it’ll take out its frustrations on the Bears. While the setback probably is the nail in the coffin for the Mountaineers playoff chances, they’ll still try to run the table from here on out and see where they stand at the end. Baylor is the perfect opponent to get untracked against in my opinion, as it looks poised for a letdown here after almost upsetting Texas two weeks ago and coming out of its bye.

The teams: A letdown here seems imminent to me for Baylor after it’s “oh-so-close” 23-17 setback to No. 9 Texas two weeks ago. The defense was decent, but the offense was once again stagnant, as QB Charlie Brewer had 240 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The run game was basically non-existent though.

Mountaineers’ QB Will Grier had an “off night” last time out, going 11 of 15 for 100 yards, one TD and one INT in the shocking loss to Iowa State. I’m not going to read too much into one crummy showing though and I do definitely expect Grier and WVU’s high-flying offense to get back on track in friendly confines and against Baylor’s suspect secondary.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WVU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four following an ATS victory. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Troy head to Ladd-Peebles Stadium off a 22-16 road loss to Liberty, while South Alabama destroyed Alabama State 45-7. Note that this is a revenge game for the Trojans after the Jaguars scored the 19-8 road victory last year.

The teams: Troy is averaging 33.7 PPG and it’s conceding only 24.6. QB Sawyer Smith has taken over pivot duties after an injury to Kaleb Barker. RB BJ Smith was a bright spot last time out with 111 yards on 20 carries.

South Alabama is averaging 25.7 PPG and it’s allowing 39.3. QB Evan Orth has a decent 7/3 TD:INT on the season, while RB Tra Minter had 300 rushing yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but South Alabama is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 following an ATS victory and only 5-17 ATS In its last 22 following a SU win, while Troy is 7-1 ATSin its last eight on the road and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six conference contests. Lay the points.

The set-up: The winner of this game will keep its slim playoff hopes alive, while the loser will officially be eliminated from contention. I think home field advantage will prove to be a big difference maker in this one. Atlanta is just 2-3, but it held on for a 34-29 win over Tampa last weekend, while New York comes in with a 1-5 record.

The teams: The Giants most recently fell 34-13 at home to the Eagles. RB Saquon Barkley was a bright spot with 100 yards rushing and 99 yards receiving. But the tension between WR Odell Beckham Jr. and QB Eli Manning is real, as the coaching staff continues to move away from having their all star pivot from throwing down the field.

The Falcons continue to look horrible defensively, but the offense continues to put up decent numbers and I have a hard time seeing the Giants keeping pace down the stretch. Last week Matt Ryan had 354 yards passing with three TD’s. Overall he has 1,432 passing with 12 TD’s and an INT.

The pick: The good news for the Falcons? They’re only 2.5 games behind the Saints in the NFC South and this is the start of four very “winnable” games for them as well, with three contests against the NFC East and also the Cleveland Browns. Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while ATL is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Lay the points.

The set-up: These division rivals are very evenly matched, but I think the Cowboys will stumble in this difficult road venue. Both teams enter with identical 3-3 records.

The teams: Dallas comes in off a 40-7 win over a road-weary Jacksonville team. I’m not going to read too much into the victory though and I do believe regression is imminent here as the team has shown a propensity to struggle away from friendly confines already this season. Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and allowing 17.2.

Washington is averaging 21.2 PPG and it’s allowing 20.9. Last week Alex Smith had 163 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. I think the veteran pivot will have some opportunities today in front of the home town crowd as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest. Divisional battles are always the most important and they always mean more to the home side. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Patriots look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their epic shootout victory at home over the Chiefs last Sunday night. The Bears recent momentum was stopped in a humbling loss to Miami last week and I believe they’ll bounce back and find a way to defend Soldier Field.

The teams: Tom Brady faced the league’s worst pass defense last week and he shredded it. It was a dream match-up and the legend delivered the goods. But we’ve already seen Brady struggle this year in difficult road venues against capable defenses.

And Khalil Mack and the Bears’ defense at home is an entirely different “animal” than KC. Brady may have looked great last weekend, but what looked horrible for New England was its defense. The unit is lucky that Brady played as well as he did, otherwise the Chiefs would still be undefeated. Suffice it to say, I think that Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky will have his opportunities today.

The pick: The Bears have yet to lose at home this year and I believe that trend continues. And take it for what you will as well, but note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the Bears.

The set-up: The Vikes come in off a 27-12 home win over the Cardinals and I look for the team to carry that momentum over here. New York enters off a 42-34 home victory over Indianapolis, but it now faces one of its most challenging defenses of the season. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it.

The teams: Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins had 233 passing yards with one TD and one INT last week. So far he has 1,921 passing yards with a sharp 12/3 TD:INT. RB LaTavius Murray had 155 rushing yards in the victory. The defense was tremendous, holding the Cards to just 269 total yards, including only 61 rushing yards.

Jets’ QB Sam Darnold has a 9/7 TD:INT after going for 280 yards and two TD’s last weekend. While the offense looked decent though, note that the defense allowed 428 total yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game, while the Vikes are 7-3 ATS in their last ten on the road. The Vikes come in with momentum, taking out the Eagles on the road and then the Cards at home. Look for New York to take a predicable step back this week and lay the points.

The set-up: Tampa’s fallen on hard times since starting out 2-0, coming into this one having lost three straight. Cleveland is 2-1 in its last three, but it got destroyed at home by the high-flying Chargers last weekend. I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “under” between these two hungry teams.

The teams: The Browns offense looked terrible last week against a pretty mediocre Chargers’ defense. Baker Mayfield was picked off twice and he only connected on 47.8 percent of his passes. So far he has a 4/5 TD:INT ratio. Mayfield doesn’t have many standout receivers, so look for Cleveland to try and establish the run here so as to alleviate some of the pressure of their rookie pivot.

The Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith following a 34-29 setback to the Falcons last Sunday. With the shift in management, I believe we’ll see a marked improvement on that side of the ball this weekend.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, I believe the “conditions” are right for a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a wide open “shoot-out.” Play the “under.”

The set-up: I think a trip across the pond does the Titans good after their worst offensive performance in a decade. Conversely, I believe this trip will be detrimental to the Chargers’ recent chemistry. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but Marcus Mariota and the Titans definitely have something to prove this weekend after last Sunday’s performance.

The teams: Despite last week’s 21-0 loss to Baltimore (the Ravens own the leagues’ No. 1 defense), Tennessee is still tied atop the AFC South.

LA comes in complacent in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently a 38-14 victory at Cleveland. Melvin Gordon was a standout with 132 yards rushing and three TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 4-0 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses, while LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU victories and only 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite. Grab the points.

The set-up: Penn State dropped its second straight in a 21-17 home loss to MSU last Saturday and I think it stumbles again here. The Hoosiers enter off a 42-16 home loss to Iowa this past weekend, their second straight setback. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as the Nittany Lions have take the last four meetings, including a 45-14 home win last September.

The teams: Penn State is averaging 44.2 PPG and it’s allowing 21. QB Trace McSorely has 12,41 passing with with 11 TD’s and two INT’s.

This is an important game for the Hoosiers, who are still bowl hopeful at this point. Indiana is averaging 26.1 PPG and it’s allowing 28.1. QB Peyton Ramsey has 1,624 passing yards with 12 TD’s and seven INT’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Penn State is 0-4 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Indiana is 6-4 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records. I’m banking on the Hoosier catching the Nittany Lions “flat footed” in this one, so grab those points!

The set-up: Cincinnati is undefeated at 6-0, most recently dispatching of Tulane two weeks ago. The Bearcats come in hungry for more out of their break and I think they’ll catch a complacent and tired Temple team “flat footed.” The Owls come in off consecutive wins over East Carolina and Navy.

The teams: Cincinnati has put up 63, 34, 49 and 37 points over its last four games. QB Desmon Ridder has 1,062 passing yards with ten TD’s and two INT’s. Overall the Bearcats are allowing only 13.7 PPG.

Temple enters off the 24-17 win over Navy. Prior to the back-to-back wins, QB Anthony Russo had looked pretty horrible, throwing just one TD pass, while being picks off five times over his first four games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. Look for the well rested visitors to pull away down the stretch.

The set-up: Two struggling teams collide on a short week on Thursday night and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Denver comes in having lost four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams, while Arizona fell 27-17 in Minnesota to fall to 1-5.

The teams: The Broncos gave up 323 yards on the ground in a 34-16 win in New York two weeks ago, only to then allow 270 yards to the Rams on the ground in last Sunday’s setback. QB Case Keenum is nothing more than a clock manager, as the run game, special teams and defense continue to lead the way.

Arizona’s offense has been terrible this year, averaging only 13.6 PPG at home so far. Last week the Cardinals looked decent for the first half, before then falling apart in the second.

The pick: This one isn’t going to be decided by the QB’s. It’s going to be decided in the trenches, by the defenses and by special teams play. Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 against clubs with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home. Play the “under.”

The set-up: These teams last met in 2016 and Arkansas State won 31-16 on the road. Georgia State comes in “rusty” here in my opinion after its bye week, before that it got blown out 37-20 by Troy. Arkansas State looks to take advantage and to get back on track after a 35-9 home loss to App State last Tuesday.

The teams: Georgia State is averaging 22.3 PPG and it’s allowing 34.2. Two weeks ago the Trojans rolled up 554 yards of offense. QB Dan Ellington has 1,224 yards with five TDs and two INTs.

Arkansas State is averaging 23.5 PPG and it’s allowing 30.2. QB Justice Hansen had a horrible game against App State last week, but he still has 1,538 passing with 11 TDs and five INTs.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Arkansas State is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 conference games and 7-3 ATS in its last ten home games against a team with a losing road record, while Georgia State is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six conference games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 200 rushing yards. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: The 49ers are 1-4 and last place in the NFC West. This is a “must win” game for San Francisco if it hopes to compete in the playoffs. Starting QB Jimmy Garraopolo was lost to injury for the season three weeks ago, so it’s “do or die” tonight. The 2-2-1 Packers have looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers will be eager to bounce back in front of the home town crowd.

The teams: San Fran is now led offensively by RB Matt Breida, who is averaging 7.5 yards on 49 carries so far this year. QB CJ Beathard makes his third start after falling 29-27 to the Chargers most recently.

Rodgers comes in sporting an elite 10:1 TD/INT and I have a hard time seeing San Francisco slowing him down tonight after the critics have been quick to jump on him after last week’s sub-par effort.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 home games as a favorite of 9 points or more. I’m expecting a wide-open affair, play the “over.”

The set-up: The Falcons have lost three in a row. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Falcons, as another loss to a divisional foe and a 1-5 record would be too much of a hole for them to climb out of. Tampa started the year on fire, but it went into its “bye week” off two straight losses. And now the Bucs welcome back Jameis Winston under center, a situation which will surely need some time to develop property chemistry. In my opinion, the stage is set for a lop-sided home blowout victory.

The teams: Tampa’s defense though is the main reason why I believe that Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan and company can bounce back today. Last year the Bucs were last in the league in the pass rush, and this season they’re ranked 30th.

Despite the 1-4 record, Ryan continues to put up impressive numbers with 1,601 passing yards so far, ranked 7th overall.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bucs are a terrible 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with losing home records, while the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU losses, including a loss to a divisional foe in their most recent. As mentioned off the top, this one has “rout” written all over it. Lay the points.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BC is 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with losing records, while Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a loss and only 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. The Eagles are averaging a whopping 223 yards on the ground this year, a number which will increase dramatically after this contest. Lay the points.

The set-up: Georgia Southern has won two in a row and I look for the Eagles to keep the momentum rolling on Thursday night against the lowly Bobcats (just 1-4.)

The teams: Since falling to Clemson, Georgia Southern has beat Arkansas State and South Alabama (48-13 last weekend.) GSU has scored at least 28 points in its four wins, including at least 34 on three occasions. QB Shai Werts had two rushing TD’s against South Alabama. Overall the Eagles are averaging 30.8 PPG, including th seventh most-rushing yards in the natoin with an average of 276.6 per game.

Texas State has given up at least 35 points in three different games this year and it’s given up more than 40 twice. The Bobcats have issues at QB as well (the team is splitting time between Willie Jones III and Tyler Vitt.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the conference, while Texas State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: I think the App State has a letdown here after its 52-7 home win over South Alabama. Conversely, it’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Red Wolves after they fell in a tight 28-21 decision to Georgia Southern in its most recent action.

The teams: I think this does indeed set up as a bit of a “trap” for the Mountaineers after three straight victories. QB Zac Thomas has 896 yards and an 8/3 TD:INT. Overall Appalachian State is averaging 51.8 points per game, while allowing only 17. In my opinion, these numbers are unsustainable and are skewed due to the competition level faced.

Arkansas State is averaging 26.4 PPG and it’s allowing 29.2. QB Justice Hansen was phenomenal in a losing cause last week, going for 376 yards and a TD. Note that he doesn’t have an INT over his last three games and he has 1,329 passing yards and an 11/2 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arkansas Sate is 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while App Sate is 0-5 ATS in its last five against schools with winning records. I’m not calling the outright, but I do expect a very competitive battle. Grab the points.

analysis coming

The set-up: Both teams won last week, but I think the Texans will find a way to defend their home field. Dallas held on for a 26-24 home win over Detroit, while Houston prevailed 37-34 in OT over the Colts.

The teams: Despite last week’s decent effort, the Cowboys are still averaging only 16.8 PPG. The team’s strength is clearly on the defensive side of the ball as it’s allow only 19.2 PPG. Dak Prescott had 255 yards and two TD’s last week, while Ezekiel Elliot had 152 rushing yards.

Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 375 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Like their counterparts today though, the Texans’ have struggled at times on both sides of the ball.
However I expect Watson to build off his best outing of the year and take advantage of friendly confines.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 37 or more points in its previous contest, while Dallas is just 12-26-1 ATS in its last 39 on field turf. Lay the points.

The set-up: Each team comes in off a high-scoring, hard-fought victory last week and I believe they come in “gassed.” The Raiders held on for a 45-42 OT win over the Browns, while the Chargers held on for a 29-27 home victory over a San Francisco team which was using its back-up QB.

The teams: The Raiders got a big game from Derek Carr last week, but overall the Oakland offense has been inconsistent this year. Marshawn Lynch though has been a pleasant surprise, as he’d go for 130 yards last week and he now has 300 yards total along with three major scores. The defense has been hit or miss this season as well, looking horrible last week. However, I think it does indeed catch a break here facing what I believe to be a tired Chargers side.

LA is averaging 27.8 PPG and it’s allowing 30 PPG. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. The Bolts have never had issues putting points on the board with Philip Rivers under center (he so far has 11 TD’s and two INT’s), but if the team hopes to take “the next step,” clearly its going to have to get things figured out on the defensive side of the ball.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oakland has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while LA has seen the total go “under” seven of its last ten against clubs with losing records. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Tennessee comes in tired in my opinion after its 26-23 OT win over Philadelphia, while the Bills come in focused and hungry after their humbling 22-0 road loss in Green Bay. Clearly the “outright” isn’t out of the question, but I’m grabbing the points in a game which I envision coming right down to the wire.

The teams: The Titans are averaging only 18.8 PPG, but they’re allowing just 18.2. Last week they had to rally from a 17-3 deficit to knock off the defending champs. QB Marcus Marriota was a stand out with 344 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT. The defense is the strength of the team, but it looked pretty pedestrian last week in allowing 315 passing yards.

The Bills are averaging only 12.5 PPG while allowing 26.5. So far rookie QB Josh Allen has 666 passing yards and a 2/4 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Tennessee is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record, while Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after getting shutout in its previous outing. I think the more “desperate” team takes this one down to the wire. Grab the points.

The set-up: Carolina enters off its bye week and I think it’ll get caught flat-footed here, just enough to allow the desperate Giants to sneak in through the back door.

The teams: New York is averaging 18.2 PPG and it’s struggled on the defensive side of the ball as well. Hence the 1-3 record. RB Saquon Barkley has been a bright spot though, he so far has 453 yards from scrimmage.

Fortunately for the Giants they face a Carolina offense which is averaging just 203.7 yards passing per game. The defense is weak against the run as well, allowing 110 yards per game on 4.93 yards per carry.

The pick: And that doesn’t bode well facing Barkley and this underachieving Giants offense. Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect a battle to the end and grab the points.

The set-up: Jacksonville comes in off a 31-12 home win over the Jets last week, while KC enters off a 27-23 road win over Denver. I think these AFC heavyweights “throw down” on Sunday.

The teams: So far Jacksonville is averaging only 22 points, while allowing just 14. That’s first in the NFL. However, the Jags’ defense is about to face its stiffest test to date. Blake Bortles look great last week and he’s going to benefit in facing this porous Chiefs’ secondary this afternoon.

KC leads the NFL with an average of 36.2 PPG. The Chiefs need to score a lot of points though, as the defense is allowing 28.8 PPG. So far QB Patrick Mahomes has a 14:0 TD/INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Jacksonville has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 16 when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while KC has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four off a win against a division rival. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Chip Kelly and UCLA are 0-4 to open the year, most recently falling 38-16 at Colorado last Friday. Washington comes to town off a 44-23 win over BYU and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today.

The teams: Washington comes in complacent in my opinion after four straight victories of the “rocking chair” variety. Last week QB Jake Browning had 277 yards and a TD, while the run game produced 187 yards. The Huskies allow just 11.6 PPG.

UCLA starting QB Wilson Speight was injured in the first game and it’s taken the team some time to adjust. Backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been decent, last week he was 17 of 35 for 138 yards and for the year he has 660 yards, three TD’s and two picks. One bright spot was the play of RB Joshua Kelley, who had 151 yards last week.

The pick: Washington’s weakness on defense? Against the run, allowing 126 YPG (ranked 40th.) I’m banking on the more desperate team keeping this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

The set-up: ODU is coming off a 37-35 road loss to ECU last Saturday and I think it’ll stumble here as well after that disheartening setback. FAU is looking to bounce back after a 25-24 loss to MTSU on the road, its second straight setback.

The teams: The Monarchs enter averaging 27.8 PPG and allowing 36. QB Steven Williams is 41 of 81 for 507 yards with two TD’s and two INT’s, while Blake LaRussa has 928 yards with seven TD’s and one INT.

FAU has lost two straight. Overall the Owls are averaging 31.2 PPG and allowing 39.8. QB Chris Robison has 1,077 passing yards with five TD’s so far this year as swell as six INT’s and another 118 rushing yards and a major score. Devin Singletary leads the ground game 459 yards and 12 TD’s already.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ODU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records, while FAU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting less then 170 passing yards in its previous contest. FAU destroyed ODU 58-28 on the road last year and I’m expecting a similar sort of blowout here as well. Lay the points.

The set-up: This is an AAC conference battle from Lincoln Financial Field. ECU comes in off a thrilling 37-35 win over ODU last weekend and I think it’ll have a predictable “letdown” here after moving to .500 with that victory. Temple on the other hand will be looking to take out its frustrations on someone after battling hard and com in yup short in a loss at Boston College last weekend.

The teams: Reid Herring suffered an ankle injury in last week’s win over ODU, but the QB isn’t expected to miss anytime. He’s only competed 54 percent of his passes and he owns a weak 6:5 TD/INT ratio. Overall ECU averages 28.5 PPG.

The Owls are not having any issues scoring points, posting at least 31 in their last three games. Last week they came up short in a 45-35 setback at Boston College though. Ryquell Armstead had 171 yards on 24 carries with four TD’s and I have a hard time seeing this suspect Pirates defensive line slowing down the red hot RB.

The pick: The Owls’ defense catches a break this week. Look for Temple to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and for the Pirates to stumble after its big win last weekend. Lay the points.

The set-up: I absolutely believe that an outright win is possible here, but I’m still going to recommend grabbing the points. BYU has improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball and it does have the “revenge” factor working in its favor today, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to keep pace with the high-flying Aggies. Last year Utah State won 40-24 at home in this game.

The teams: Utah State is rested, coming into this one off its bye week. The Aggies have won four straight, most recently a 42-32 home victory over Air Force. Overall Utah State is averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing only 23.8. QB Jordan Love has 1,070 yards and a 5/3 TD:INT (although no INT’s in the last two games.)

Despite being smashed 35-7 last week by the No. 11 Huskies, the Cougars still concede just 20.6 PPG, which ranks them 35th in the country. However, the offense is the weak point, a unit which ranks near the bottom of many offensive categories. QB Tanner Mangum has 772 passing yards and 3:2 TD/INT (the offense does focus mainly on the ground game.)

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but note that BYU is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 after posting less than 170 passing yards in their previous game and just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home overall, while Utah State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five away from friendly confines. The Aggies are well balanced on offense and they’re also well rested. The Utah State defense is improved from last year as well. As mentioned off the top, as good as the Cougars have looked on the defensive side of the ball this year, the offense has been a major disappointment. Grab the points, but don’t be surprised by an outright upset!

The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals are in a “free fall” right now, losers of two straight, most recently against Virginia and FSU. Georgia Tech is just 1-3, but it comes in with some momentum after beating Bowling Green this past weekend.

The teams: Georgia Tech is 3-2 in its last five in having to play on a short week. QB TaQuon Marshall has rushed for at least one TD in all five games this year. So far in total he has seven rushing and two passing TD’s. The Yellow Jackets most recently steamrolled Bowling Green 63-17 this past Saturday and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Tobias Oliver was another standout with 115 yards rushing and two TD’s.

Louisville is struggling to find its No. 1 QB still, as head coach Bobby Petrino has been switching between Malik Cunningham and Jawon Pass. Pass would play the entire game last week in the loss to the Seminoles, going 24 of 45 for 306 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. He also fumbled the ball three times.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but GT is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 when playing with six or less days rest and interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in Weeks 5 through 9, while Louisville is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight October games and only 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Look for the Georgia Tech up-tempo offense to prove be too much for the Cardinals to keep up to. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Pats broke a two-game slide with a 38-7 win over Miami last Sunday, while the Colts came up on the short end of the stick in a 37-34 OT setback at Houston last Sunday. These teams haven’t played since 2015.

The teams: Indianapolis had a 478-466 edge in offense last week, but it just wasn’t to be in the end. QB Andrew Luck so far has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s. Adam Vinatieri continues to be a steady source of production as well, hitting all eight extra points and eight nine field goals with a long of 51.

The Pats smashed the Dolphins last week with a 449-172 yardage advantage. So far QB Tom Brady has an unremarkable 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. RB Sony Michels has 196 yards and a TD.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indianapolis is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including 2-0 ATS this season) and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road (including 2-0 ATS this year), while New England is a horrible 0-4 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. I think Luck will match Brady. Grab the points.

The set-up: Tulsa enter off a listless 31-17 loss to Temple on the road last time out, so a well rested and high-powered Houston Cougars team will look to take advantage. The home side comes in off its bye, but previous tot that it destroyed Texas Southern 70-14.

The teams: The Golden Hurricane average 24 PPG and they allow 28.8. QB Like Skipper has four TD’s and six INT’s, while RB Shamari Brooks is a bright spot with 375 yards rushing and four TD’s.

Houston is averaging 52.2 PPG and it’s conceding 30.5. Defense is the weak point, but the unit catches a break today facing Tulsa’s impotent offense. QB D’Eriq King so far has 1,197 yards passing with 15 TD’s, one INT, to go along with 107 rushing yards and five more TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a losing road record, while Tulsa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. When these teams played last year it was Houston that pulled away for the simple 45-17 road victory. Now that the Cougars are playing at home, I’m expecting an even bigger rout. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Chiefs are 3-0 and feature the most explosive offense in the league. While the defense has been a weak point, KC catches a break this week facing the inconsistent Broncos. I think the Chiefs keep the foot on the gas in Week 4 and pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover.

The teams: KC is seventh in total offense with 398.3 YPG.Denver is 21st in the league in pass defense, allowing 262.7 YPG through the air. The Chiefs already have 15 pass plays that covered at least 20 yards this season. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has three TD’s and five INT’s and his passing yards have declined each week (last week he was 22 of 34 for 173 yards and an INT in the loss to the Ravens.)

The pick: The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five MNF contests, while Denver is just 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 MNF appearances. Lay the points and expect a rout, play on Kansas City.

The set-up: Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over the Bucs last week, but it’ll still be desperate to avoid a 1-3 start. Baltimore though has struggled on the road over the last few years and after beating the Broncos at home last week, I think it’ll predictably stumble here.

The teams: Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has yet to post a 100 yard game and Baltimore ranks among the worst rushing offenses in the league. QB Joe Flacco continues to look decent one game and horrible the next. Pittsburgh has struggled against the run, but Baltimore’s one-dimensional offense isn’t going to fool the home side I don’t think tonight.

Pittsburgh had/has plenty of off-field drama to contend with with player hold-outs, but it took a big step in the right direction in last weeks convincing victory over Tampa Bay. Big Ben looked sharp under center and I think the pivot carries that momentum over here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. I think Flacco struggles in this difficult venue and I look for Roethlisberger and company to step up on the National stage. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in at 1-2 and each will be hungry for a victory here. The only difference is, the 49ers lost the services of starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the remainder of the season to injury last week. I think veteran QB Phillip Rivers takes full advantage and puts the pressure on the visitors from start to finish.

The teams: San Fran enters off a 38-27 loss to KC. Not only is Garoppolo out, but so too is defensive specialist Richard Sherman with a quad injury.

LA comes in off a 12 point loss to the Rams. Rivers already has 906 yards, eight TD’s and one INT, while Melvin Gordon has 172 yards and two scores on the ground. WR Keenan Allen has 219 receiving yards and a TD as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but LA is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while San Fran is interestingly just 1-8 ATS in its last nine after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous outing. Look for the Chargers to go straight for the jugular. Lay the points.

The set-up: Miami is 3-0 to open the season and it’ll be looking to kick New England when its down. The Pats enter off a horrible 26-10 road loss to Detroit and I think they’re ripe for the picking here. The outright isn’t out of the question. Note that New England took the first game last season 35-17, before the Fish countered with a 27-20 home win in the second.

The teams: Miami’ QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s in a victory over the Raiders. He now has 687 passing yards and a 7:2 TD/INT. WR Kenny Still had 61 receiving yards last week and overall he has 184. Miami is averaging 25 PPG and it’s allowing 17.3 (good for sixth.)

New England’s season will essentially be over if it falls to 1-3. Miami can smell the blood in the water and will look to take advantage of a Patriots team which is averaging 19 PPG and allowing 25.7 (21st overall).

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Pats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting less than 150 passing yards in their previous game, while the Fish are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU victory. “The Changing Of The Guard” is happening right before our eyes. Get ready for it. But grab the points just in case!

The set-up: Buffalo comes in off a commanding 27-6 road win over Minnesota last week and I think it’ll carry that confidence and momentum over here. Green Bay comes in dejected after it’s 31-17 road loss to Washington.

The teams: Buffalo is averaging 16.7 PPG and it’s allowing 28. Those numbers are a bit skewed though I think after two really horrible games to open the season. With QB Josh Allen finally getting comfortable, clearly the Bills looked a lot better last week. Allen was 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and he also added two more rushing TD’s. The defense also rebounded in a big way and it’ll have some opportunities to make some plays today too I think.

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers had 265 passing yards with two TD’s. He played with a brace on his knee and he was seen many times hobbling around. The run game mustered a paltry 87 yards. overall the Pack is averaging 23.3 PPG and it’s allowing 27.7.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing less than 15 points in its previous contest. I’ll even recommend “sprinkling a little” on the money line. That said, grab the points!

The set-up: The Cardinals enter off a 38-31 OT road win in Oregon and I think it’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. Notre Dame annihilated Wake Forest 56-27 and it’ll be out to push the pace as well. Note that these teams played to a higher-scoring affair last year as well when Stanford won 38-20.

The teams: Cardinal’ QB KJ Costello was 19 of 26 for 327 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s in last week’s win. Stanford is 47th in the country in passing at 264 YPG. RB Bryce Love had 89 yards and a TD last week. The defense has been super, allowing only 13.5 PPG, but clearly that units faces its stiffest test of the season.

Notre Dame is 71st in passing and 66th in total offense with 416.5 YPG. Last week Ian Book threw for 325 yards and two TD’s without an INT in the victory over the Deacons.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Stanford has seen the total go “over” the number in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Notre Dame has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four against the Pac 12. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

analysis soon

The set-up: I think Cincinnati comes in complacent here at 3-0 and facing the lowly Huskies. UConn is just 1-3 following a setback against Syracuse last week but I expect it to keep this one competitive.

The teams: Cincinnati comes in off an emotional come-from-behind win over Ohio last week, with QB Desmond Ridder going 19 of 29 for 274 yards and two TD’s. The Ground game is averaging 235.2 YPG so far.

Connecticut ranks last in the FBS on defense, allowing 54.5 YPG. It’s difficult to say too many positive things about this team, as for the most part it’s struggled. It’s looked decent offensively though and I think it’ll have its opportunities again today against this disinterested Bearcats side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Cincinnati is still just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as a favorite, while UConn is 6-4 ATS in its last ten against a team with a winning record. No outright, but a tight battle. Grab the points.

The set-up: UCLA is horrible, it’s 0-3 for the first time since 1971 following last week’s 38-14 home loss to Fresno State last Saturday. The team suffered more bad new with backup QB Devon Modster announced this week that he’s transferring. Colorado looks to deliver the knock out blow at home and improve to 4-0.

The teams: UCLA has given up more than 400 yards of offense in every game this year, while averaging just 320. 13 of the team’s 41 Blue Chip recruits have left the team after Jim Mora was replaced by Jim Kelly at coach.

Buffalo QB Steven Montez has 855 passing yards, eight TD’s and two picks so far this season. Last week the Buffs had 311 yards of rushing in a 45-14 destruction of New Hampshire.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of mor ethan 20 points, while UCLA is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 conference game sand just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road. I don’t think the Bruins respond here at all. In fact, I as mentioned off the top, I look for the Buffs to kick this team while it’s down. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Vikes are 1-1-1 and they’ll be laying everything on the line on the short week to try and score the upset here and avoid the 1-2-1 hole. LA is 3-0 and it’ll be out to avoid any letdowns here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. I think points are going to be plentiful.

The teams: The Vikes beat the 49ers 24-16 at home in Week 1 and then followed that up with a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Green Bay on the road. But Minnesota comes into this one off a terrible 27-6 home loss to Buffalo, a game in which it was a 17 point favorite. Two critical first half fumbles didn’t help their cause obviously. Another loss here and Minnesota’s season is “on the ropes” essentially.

The Rams would love nothing more than to deliver the “knock out blow” as well. LA beat the Raiders 33-13 on the road on MNF in Week 1, then followed it up with a 34-0 destruction of Arizona in Week 2 and then last week it pulled away for the 35-23 home victory over the Chargers. QB Jared Goff had 354 yards and three TD’s last week.

The pick: Minnesota can’t sit back and hope things work out. The Vikes’ offense has to produce tonight, or they’re going to get left behind by the high-powered Rams. LA’s greatest strength early it seems is that it can play any style of game. Wide open, defensive battle, either way it’s adapted its style early and done well in every scenario. I’m anticipating a more wide open affair today. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Two hungry teams collide on Monday night and I think points are going to be plentiful. Tampa is 2-0 to open the year with wins over New Orleans and Philadelphia, while Pittsburgh comes in desperate at 0-1-1, with a tie against the Browns, followed by a loss to the Chiefs.

The teams: Pittsburgh’s defense is in shambles after allowing 21 points to Cleveland (14 of which came in the fourth quarter), along with 42 to Kansas City. KC posted 326 passing yards and Pat Mahomes had six TD’s. Mahomes was sacked just once and the Steelers defense has just two total turnovers over the first two weeks. While Ben Roethlisberger is down some offensive weapons, he’ll clearly be given the green light today to air the ball out.

Tampa QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will look to take immediate advantage of the Steelers’ porous defense, so far he’s completed 78.7 percent of his passes for 819 yards, eight TD’s and one INT over the first two games. DeSean Jackson had five catches and 146 yards with two TD’s in the win over the Saints.

The pick: Pittsburgh’s offense is going to have to put some points on the board today, because it knows that its defense isn’t going to stop anyone. This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout. Play the “over.”

analysis soon

The set-up: Outright upset? Of course not. But I think Miami Florida comes in distracted enough to let lowly FIU sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

The teams: FIU destroyed UMass 63-24 last weekend, as QB James Morgan had 207 yards and two TD’s. Shawndarrius Phillips had 117 rushing yards. Overall Morgan has six TD’s and three INT’s. Clearly this is a huge step up in competition, but after two straight wins, the Panthers won’t just be rolling over here today.

Miami Florida comes in off a big win too, smashing Toledo 49-24. QB Malik Rosier was 13 of 23 for 205 yards and two TD’s, while also adding 80 yards and three more scores on the ground. Note that the defense took a major hit with an injury to Jaquan Johnson. He he went out Toledo gained huge chunks through the air.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but FIU is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Miami Florida is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records. I think a confident and “under the radar” FIU team can keep this one competitive against an over-confident and complacent Hurricanes home side. Grab the points.

The set-up: It’s an important early season ACC match-up between Clemson and Georgia Tech. Clemson enters off a 38-7 victory at home over Georgia Southern, while Georgia Tech is off a tough 24-19 road loss to Pittsburgh. Note that when these teams played last year it was Clemson that won 24-10 at home.

The teams: Clemson comes in complacent here, now ranked No. 2 in the country. So far the Tigers are averaging 38 PPG and allowing 13.3. Clemson has a QB battle going on still between Trevor Lawrence and Kelly Bryant.

Georgia Tech comes in hungry after opening the season 1-2. After a win over Alcorn State, the Yellow Jackets have dropped two straight on the road to South Florida and Pittsburgh. Overall the team is ranked 21st in the nation in total offense (510 YPG) and 64th in scoring with 32.7. The defense has also been sharp in allowing only 24.3 PPG.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while Georgia Tech is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog and 5-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. The conditions are right for a much tighter than expected affair in my opinion. Grab the points.

The set-up: UCF comes in refreshed because its game last weekend was cancelled because of Hurricane Florence. Central Florida is already 2-0 with victories over UConn and South Carolina State. FAU lost to Oklahoma, before then bouncing back with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman.

The teams: The Owls do indeed come in off the 49-28 win over Bethune-Cookman, but they’ve had just five days off. Clearly the visitors are at a major disadvantage from a fitness and mental stand-point this week already. Devin Singletary was a standout in the latest victory with a school-record five rushing TD’s.

The Knights have 612 yards on the ground through two games and 606 through the air. Seven different players have gained at least 68 yards, led by Adrian Killins Jr., who has 127 yards and three TD’s. QB McKenzie Milton is so far 45 of 71 for 589 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but FAU is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while UCF is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think the “fresher” home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

The set-up: New York is 1-1, looking great in Week 1, but stumbling in Week 2. Cleveland has been very competitive in both of its losses to open the season. These are two young and hungry teams looking for a big win on a short week and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it.

The teams: New York has lost five of its last six on the road. QB Sam Darnold so far has 532 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s. The Jets are averaging 105.5 yards on the ground per game. The defense has been a bright spot early in allowing just 18.5 points, but I think that the unit comes in “gassed” on the short week.

Cleveland is desperate. The Browns haven’t won a game since Christmas Eve 2016. QB Tyrod Taylor has 443 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s so far. The ground game has been a strength, averaging 135 YPG, with Carlos Hyde leading the charge with 105 yards and two TD’s. Cleveland has been decent defensively as well, allowing 21 PPG.

The pick: If not for some “back luck,” the Browns could actually be 2-0 to start the season. I think the home side opens up the playbook today as it lays everything on the line to try and secure the victory on the National stage. Darnold and company won’t be going down without a fight though. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Both teams come in at 0-1 and only one will leave this contest with a victory. I think that home field will prove to be the difference for Chicago.

The teams: Seattle threw everything it had on the line in Week 1, but it still came up short in a 27-24 setback in Denver. The offense lost star WR Doug Baldwin to injury and his return in unknown at this point. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards, but no receiver caught more than four passes. QB Russell Wilson had 298 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s, but he was just 19 of 33 overall.

The Bears lost 24-23 in Green Bay. The defense looked great until the final moments when it gave up a 75 yard TD strike to Randall Cobb. QB Mitch Trubisky had 171 passing yards and 32 yards and a TD on the ground. RB Jordan Howard at 85 yards on 15 carries. Khalil Mack put on a show defensively and I think he’s going to have a big night here as well against the Seahawks’ suspect O-line.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 at home (also 6-2 ATS in its last eight MNF contests), while Seattle is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four Week 2 contests. The Hawks were a terrible 2 for 12 on third down against the Broncos and now they face a similar swarming defensive unit. I like Trubisky to find a way to get the job done at home. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams looked terrible last week. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” one which is going to be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. In a scenario like that, I’m going to grab the points every time.

The teams: New York lost 20-15 at home to Jacksonville. RB Saquon Barkley was a stand out with 106 yards and a TD. Eli Manning had 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT. The veteran should make significant progression as the season wears on though. The defense was sharp overall, allowing just 305 yards.

Dallas looked horrible offensively in Week 1 and it all falls onto QB Dak Prescott’s shoulders. He was 19 of 29 for 17 yards. He also lost a fumble. He was also sacked six times. The beleaguered Cowboys’ QB is getting progressively worse with each outing as he’s now thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while New York is interestingly 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 2 contests. The Jags have one of the best defensive units in the league, but New York faces a much more manageable opponent this week. The outright isn’t out of the question, but I’m going to grab the points.

The set-up: I like the Lions to bounce back on the road here after a tough setback in Week 1. The 49ers also lost in Week 1 and I think they’re ripe for the picking.

The teams: Detroit was humbled 48-17 last week and new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat. The Lions would give up 31 third-quarter points: “It came to a point there in the third quarter where we just didn’t have control anymore in all three phases,” Patricia assessed. “We just have to do a better job. Obviously, we have to coach this a lot better than what we did tonight and we have to go out and execute a lot better on the field. We have to do a better job altogether. It starts with me.” QB Matt Stafford had 286 yards, while the defense allowed 169 rushing yards.

San Francisco didn’t look too much better in its 24-16 loss at Minnesota. QB Jimmy Garoppolo looked poor, going 15 of 33 for 261 yards, one TD and three INT’s. Is there any QB more over-rated than this guy? The 49ers finished with just 13 points on four trips inside the Red Zone. The team lost the services of WR Marquise Goodwin to injury also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I expect a hard-fought battle, one which will likely be decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points.

The set-up: Indianapolis fell 34-23 to the Bengals at home in its opener, while Washington took care of business in Arizona 24-6. The Colts hit the road for the first time in a hostile environment this season and I think they’ll have an even more difficult time moving the ball in Week 2. Indianapolis played better defensively than what last week’s score would indicate and I think the unit will have opportunities today as well. This number is high.

The teams: Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 319 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. No. 1 RB Marlon Mack was out and he’s questionable for this one as well. WR TY Hilton had just five catches for 46 yards. As mentioned off the top, the defense was decent despite the final score, as one of the TD’s conceded was a defensive one.

Washington QB Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD passes last week. The run game stole the show offensively though with 182 combined, led by Adrian Peterson with 96. The defense was outstanding, holding the Cardinals to only 213 yards and 1 of 8 on third down attempts.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indy has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six as a favorite in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Both teams are hungry here after Week 1 setbacks. Both clubs looked horrible defensively last weekend and I think that’ll be the case here again as well. This number is a little low.

The teams: The Bills lost 47-3 last week. Josh Allen has been named the starting QB in Week 2 after Nathan Peterman imploded. LeSean McCoy only had 22 yards last week, after finishing with over 1,100 last year. Clearly the only way the Buffalo offense can go is up. The defense gave up 369 yards, including allowing Baltimore to go 6 for 6 in the Red Zone.

LA QB Philip Rivers will be looking to exploit the Bills’ weak pass defense. The Chargers were decent defensively last year, but the unit struggled in Week 1 and I think it’ll have its hands full here against a Buffalo offense that’s out to atone itself.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Buffalo has seen the total go “over” in 12 of its last 15 at home. With each side pushing the pace and hungry for a win, I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: The Falcons have been over-rated for quite some time in my estimation. Atlanta had several chances to deliver the knock out blow to Eagles in Week 1, but the offense stalled in the Red Zone on three different occasions, with the visitors coming up completely empty. With that loss still on their minds, I think the Falcons are ripe for the picking here. The Panthers will be happy to oblige as they look to move to 2-0 and gain an early critical victory over a divisional foe.

The teams: Carolina prevailed 16-8 against Dallas last week, holding the Cowboys to 0 for 5 on third down in the first half. Cam Newton had his hands full for the most of the game, but he made some big plays when he needed too. And now he faces a much more suspect defensive unit in the Falcons.

Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 251 yards, no TD’s and an INT in last week’s 18-12 loss at Philadelphia. The defense looked decent, but the book is still out on the Eagles offense at this point, so it’s hard to read too much into what the Falcons’ unit did in Week 1.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Atlanta is just 12-13 ATS in its last 25 as a favorite. Grab the points, play on Carolina.

The set-up: Missouri comes in as the more complacent team here as it’s won two straight to open the season, most recently a 40-13 destruction of Wyoming at home last weekend. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for Purdue which has lost two in a row, most recently a shocking 20-19 setback to EMU last Saturday.

The teams: Missouri is so far averaging 396 yards per game in the early going, but it faces a stiff test today. The offense has put up 45.5 PPG, while the defense has allowed only 13.5. QB Drew Lock had 687 yards, eight TD’s and no INT’s.

Purdue is ranked 89th in the country in passing offense with an average of 202.5 YPG. 24th in rushing offense though with 271.5 YPG. So far the combination of David Blough and Elijah Sindelar has come up short under center, but I think that changes this weekend. The offense is averaging just 23 PPG right now, but the defense is giving up only 25.5.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field, while Purdue is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. An outright upset? Possibly. Purdue is without question the “hungrier” team and I think this game will be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points, play on Purdue.

The set-up: This is a classic “David vs. Goliath” match-up. However in this version, I believe Goliath will pound David through the field turf! Oregon comes in off back-to-back blowout victories and I fully expect that trend to carry over here for one more game. San Jose State on the other hand was shutout in a loss to Washington State last weekend.

The teams: The Spartans put up 38 points in a loss to FCS UC Davis and then got killed by Washington State. Overall San Jose State has a total of 109 yards of offense over the first two games, with 100 of those coming through the air.

So far Oregon has outscored its opponents by 31 points to open the year, as QB Justin Herbert has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for 531 yards, nine TD’s and two INT’s. The ground attack has been solid as well and it looks poised for a massive game here against SJSU’s pathetic defense.

The pick: The Spartans though have been particularly horrible against the pass, giving up an average of 433 yards per game through the air to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while San Jose State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine on the road. I don’t think SJSU will score a point. Lay the points.

The set-up: Of course I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for the Badgers to come in a tiny bit complacent here and I expect them to get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent. Wisconsin has won two in a row, most recently hammering New Mexico 45-14, while BYU comes in off a slim 21-18 home setback to Cal. Not surprisingly this is a “revenge” game after Wisconsin smashed BYU 40-6 on the road last year.

The teams: BYU QB Tanner Mangum was 22 of 41 for 196 yards and two INT’s last week. So far he has a 2:2 TD/INT over two games. Over the first two games the offense is averaging 23 points. The defense though has looked pretty good, last week it gave up 386 total yards. Over the first two games the Cougars are allowing 22 points.

Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook has a 3:1 TD/INT after two games, after throwing 25 TD passes last season. RB Jonathan Taylor had 253 rushing yards, but he’ll be up against a decent BYU rush defense this week. The defense was a strength of the team last year and it will be again this season as well. However note that the unit did lose eight starters from last year’s squad.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is still 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Wisconsin is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 at home and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. Grab the points, play on BYU.

The set-up: I think Minnesota comes in complacent here after two straight wins, most recently a 21-14 victory at home over Fresno State. Miami Ohio on the other hand is looking to atone after a 21-0 “dud” loss to Cincinnati.

The teams: Redhawks’ QB Gus Ragland had 357 yards passing in Week 1’s loss to Marshall, but he was just 22 of 41 for 139 in last week’s loss. WR James Gardner has been a bright spot early with 142 yards over the first two games. Miami Ohio has looked decent defensively in the early going as well, last week limiting Cincinnati to just 233 total yards. Note that he pass defense was ranked 41st last season.

Last week the Golden Gophers limited Fresno State to 299 total yards. QB Zack Annexstad had 175 yards in the win. But the victory came at a major cost, as note that star RB Rodney Smith was lost for the season with a knee injury. He is arguably the best player on the team and it’s a major blow to the team’s psyche.

The pick: With a game at 2-0 Maryland next week, I think this does indeed set up as a classic “trap” game for the Golden Gophers. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.