The Bengals were a road favorite just a few days ago, but with clarification about Mahomes' availability, this game is now a pick'em.  The Bengals have had more success than any team against the Chiefs.  Against the Bills last week, the Bengals' offense was the complete package. Burrow threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns, and the run game put up a huge 160+ yards against a tough Bills run defense.  The defense dominated, limiting the Bills to just 60 rush yards, and Allen to no passing TDs.
The Chiefs are not above giving up points, especially in the air (32nd ranked in pass TDs allowed), and there will be concern about Mahomes' mobility, not to mention the three straight losses against the Bengals.
Not to underestimate Mahomes and the Chiefs, but Burrow is the prince in waiting, the Cincinnati run game put up some big numbers, and the Bengals' defense really impressed.  Take the Bengals to win and cover.

PLEASE NOTE: This pick was previously posted as favoring the Chiefs, when the write-up clearly stated that it was a selection on the Bengals. It has since been corrected. Call it pilot error: I clicked the wrong button.  My apologies for the confusion.

The Eagles have home field and the crowd on Sunday, but face a 49ers team that has been completely dominant in the second half of the season. Both teams are healthy but the 49ers face some question marks around Samuel and their starting running backs. Philadelphia whipped the Giants, but it has not been smooth sailing while Hurts was injured.  He put concerns about his shoulder to rest last week but faces the league's best run defense this week and will likely have to throw the ball more. The SF defense is more susceptible in the air and has also not faced a good rushing QB since Mariotta and the Falcons.  Atlanta won that game convincingly.

49ers' QB Purdy has been an eye-opener this season. He does what he is told to do more than competently, and with very few mistakes.  The kid appears to have ice water in his veins, but he did struggle against a very good Cowboys pass defense and saw his passer rating drop by 40 points last week.  The 49ERS are a rush-first team, but the bulk of their points still come in the air.  While they can be run on, the Eagles have THE elite pass defense in the league and pressure a passer like no-one else.
I have waffled about this game, but believe the variety of the Eagles' offense will win out in the end.  Hurts does too many things well to discount and has experience on his side.  Purdy will have to be better than he ever has been under intense pressure from the crowd, nerves and that superlative Eagles pass defense.  Take the Eagles to win and cover.

Two very fine teams, both off huge wild card victories, meet up on Sunday.  We are looking at the 4th and 5th best offenses, and the 5th and 6th best defenses, so there is no obvious advantage.  That said, each defense has weak point. For Dallas, it is the run game; 21st rated though improving lately.  The 49ers' soft spot is their pass defense.  They are 20th in pass yards allowed and 22 in completion rate.
Prescott pulled apart the Bucs' very good pass defense last week, and looked exceptionally sharp. Vs the Commanders the week before, it was the combination of Washington's top pass defense and the Commanders' ability to exploit Dallas's poorer run defense that led to the Commanders' success.
The Cowboys can run the ball but it will be tough to move vs the 49ers' elite run defense, however Prescott should be able to continue his fine passing play against the weaker 49ers' pass defense.  The 49ers can and will run the ball vs Dallas, but the bulk of their points are coming via the pass.  Purdy will face a very tough and active Cowboys' pass defense, the best he has faced yet.  Although he hasn't played like it, Purdy is still a rookie with limited experience in a very very big game.  While it will likely be a very close game, I am going with the more experienced passer today.  Take the Cowboys with the points, now more than a field goal.

The Bengals travel to Buffalo to play in the snow tomorrow against a favored Bills team.  The Dolphins, the best pass-centric team the Bills have faced this year, put up 81 points in three games against Buffalo this year, winning once and losing the others by 3 points.  The Bengals are an elite pass-first team with a far better defense than Miami's. With the spread now at 6 points, I am not at all confident that the Bills can put this game away, in spite of Cincinnati's O-line injuries. Burrow, of all passers, is the least likely to be seriously affected by O line deficiencies. Very high sack totals has been the norm for him until this year, and he has thrived anyway.  The cold weather has not affected him, he loves the limelight, and he and the Bengals are unlikely to be affected by crowd noise.
At times last week, Allen moved the ball with ease against the Dolphins, but his slew of picks and fumbles in recent games is concerning.  The Bengals play a very clean game when it comes to turnovers. A game-deciding mistake is far more likely to come from Allen and the Bills this week.
On paper Buffalo has the edge in defense, especially rush defense. The Bengals are unlikely to run the ball excessively, and as far as points-allowed goes, Cincinnati has the upper hand, with 17 on average L3 games, and 17 last week compared to the Bills' 22 points allowed L3 and 31 last week.
In the last ill-fated and shortened meeting of these two teams, The Bengals were moving the ball with ease.  Look for a close game tomorrow, and take the Bengals plus the points.

The Giants face the Eagles at home in the divisional round.  This should be no contest considering their respective positions in the standings, but I believe it will be a much closer game and here is why.  
-Jalen Hurts is playing but in all likelihood is not completely healthy, and I doubt he is capable of going all-in on Saturday. We have seen how the Eagles fare without Hurts, and he did not impress in week 18.
-The Giants are inspired by their situation. Daboll has their attention, and he and they seem to learn from their mistakes this season.  A case in point; the Giants lost to the Vikings in week 16.  Three weeks later, in the biggest of games, they roll out a win over Minnesota.
-As good as the Eagles are against the pass, they have been susceptible on the ground. The Giants moved the ball in week 18 missing Barkley and Jones. Look for much better results this week.
-It isn't just the Eagles offense that has struggled in recent games.  Phillie's offense lacks some of the lustre we saw earlier in the season. While their passer pressure has remained a constant, their passing yards allowed has crept up, along with all other pass categories not related to pressure.  The Giants' defense has shown general improvement down the stretch, as has the offense.

I don't expect Jones to pass for 300 yards this week, and I don't really expect the Giants to win outright, but a close game, decided by one score, is very likely.  Take the Giants, now a seven+ point underdog, with the points, as the Eagles are out-coached and held in check on Saturday.

The last really good team the Chiefs played was the Bengals and they lost. They beat the Chargers, the Jags' competition last week, by 3 points, and the rest of their recent competition hasn't been strong. This is a much better Jags team than the last time the Chiefs faced them and we are now looking at a 9 point spread. Lawrence has grown immensely as a passer and bounced back from some uncharacteristically poor play in the first halves of his last two games, so let us hope his jitters are behind him.  The weather will be been less than perfect on Saturday and the Jags have the edge in the run department, so a possible edge there. The Jags' O-line has protected Lawrence very well to date but the Chiefs are a voracious team when it comes to passer pressure. I expect a big game from Etienne on  Saturday.
Mahomes is Mahomes, but the Chiefs' record against the spread is not impressive.  This is too many points considering the Jags are on a huge and unexpected run against really tough odds this season. Look for a closer game that the line would suggest.  Take an inspired Jags team and the points.

Even after a sub .500 season it is hard to go against Brady and the Bucs.  It would be easier if Prescott were playing a little better.  A few things stand out in this match-up.  As noted in the media, the Cowboys  a. haven't won in a quite a while against the Bucs, b. don't play well on real grass, and c. Tampa, while losing more than winning this season, are above .500 at home.

The Cowboys have gotten away from their running game lately; the Bucs who are last in the league in rush yards for the season, have put up just as many yards as Dallas lately. The Bucs seldom run the ball, but did against the Cowboys in their first game and again against the Seahawks, two of their best performances this year.  The Cowboys are susceptible to the run, so it is a possibility we will see more from Fournette and the rush defense on Monday.  Brady has looked better connected to his targets, and might hold on to the ball a little longer with the season on the line. 

Prescott has no impressed at all in recent games, and it isn't just the picks he has thrown.  The offensive breakdown in a game that should have mattered last week is concerning.  Dallas could revert to the run, and should be able to move the ball vs Tampa, but in the end, given his history and his ability to move the ball when he needs to this season, I'm choosing Brady over Prescott.  Tampa is as healthy as they have been all season.  A mistake could decide this game, a pick or an interception, and it is more likely to come from Dallas. Take Tampa + the points.

It is offense vs defense when the Bengals host the Ravens on Sunday.  Resting Andrews, Dobbins and others last week, the Ravens deserted their running game, with rookie QB Anthony Brown throwing for 270+ yards, not to mention 2 picks and an end zone fumble. Credit to the kid, he did appear to settle somewhat as the game went on, and it was surprisingly easy at times for the Ravens to move the ball.  It will likely be back to Huntley, Dobbins and the running game this week against a solid Bengals run and an average pass defense. Of note, the Bengals are susceptible to longer passing plays; the Ravens averaged over 14 yards per completion last week.
Burrow threw for just 200 yards, down considerably from average, especially considering all of the Ravens' turnovers.  He has struggled against the Ravens defense this year. Baltimore limited Burrow and targets to short gains and a poor completion rate, sacking him twice. The Bengals hardly ran the ball last week.
Look for the Ravens to eat up the clock on the ground, and hopefully not turn the ball over as often.  I don't think they have enough offense to put up many points, but I do think their fine defense can make it very tough on Burrow and the Bengals.  A Ravens win is not likely in the cards, but I'm wagering on the Baltimore to keep it close.  Take the Ravens plus the points.

The Bengals and the Ravens put up 53 points last week but that included two costly picks and a "fumble-six" by the Ravens' rookie QB.  Look for the Ravens to go back to their usual rush-first style and slo-ow the game down this week.  Burrow has had his struggles against the Baltimore defense this year, and was held to just 200 passing yards, short receptions and a poor completion rate last week.  The Ravens haven't been able to put up many points with Huntley under center, and the Bengals are tough to run against. Baltimore's tough defense, with a dry run last week, will tighten the screws on Burrow and limit points more successfully this week.  Take Sunday's game to go under the total!

This will be an interesting match-up between two young QBs. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags got a taste of "lose and it is over" last week, and Lawrence did seem a little jittery vs. the Titans.  He has been a quick study in his brief history so far, and I think he will step up this week.  Etienne and the Jags' running game will be a deciding factor.  The Jags, unlike the Chargers, have some balance in their offense, and the Chargers REALLY struggle against the run.
The Chargers have a fine passer in Herbert, but they may be without Williams this week which takes a little of the juice out of their passing game.  They don't run much.  They could step that up but the Jags are tough vs the run.  The Jags defense, including their weak pass D, has improved as the season progressed. I believe it will be status quo for the Chargers pass-first offense. Can the Jags' pass defense handle Herbert and his targets?  They've averaged 3 sacks a week and have held passers to a 70 rating last three games, and an 89 rate for the season, just one point above LA's seasonal average.
The Chargers really haven't beaten anyone very impressive to get this far.  I am not sold on them as a wild card winner. The Jags have momentum, a little extra rest and have no expectations on them.  They will be at home in front of a delirious crowd.  Take the Jags to cover.  An outright win would not surprise me.

It would be hard to imagine the 49ers not emerging victorious on Saturday but the question is "by how much?"  First off, there is a huge risk of  heavy rain and wind, making for the likelihood of a run-dominated game. The Giants ran 60% of the time in their last game and have had plenty of success with it, averaging 160+ yards in their last three games. The Seahawks' defense doesn't handle the run at all well, so the 49ers would be wise to take advantage irregardless of the weather.  Seattle, and especially Walker has had rush success lately, as the Seahawks have put up even more yards than the 49ers on the ground L3  Seattle will likely have a tougher time moving the ball against an excellent SF rush defense.
The 49er's pass defense, while not exactly struggling lately, has given up more passing yards, a higher completion % and more points lately.  Smith has excellent targets, but his star is not nearly as shiny in recent games, and he will face formidable pass pressure from the 49ers.  Purdy has improved each week and is off a passer rating of 115 in his last three games, but he doesn't exactly air it out.  He is still very much a rookie, and the Seahawks' pass defense has been much better recently, with 5 sacks last week and a passer rating allowed of just 65 in their last three games.
Considering the field conditions, I think this game will be closer than expected.  Carroll will have the Seahawks prepared, and certainly the team from Emerald City are no strangers to rain.  While a win is not likely for the Seahawks, neither is a blow out.  Take Seattle plus the points

TCU seems like a pretty square dog to me. Including the semifinal win over Michigan, they have six wins by eight points or less. Give them credit for getting here, but the Horned Frogs are severely outclassed in this National Championship matchup with Georgia. 

Against Michigan, the Horned Frogs needed two pick-sixes and a pair of turnovers at the goal line. And they still only won by six! They were outgained for the game 528-488.

While Georgia did trail almost the entire game against Ohio State, they actually did outgain the Buckeyes 533-467. And OSU is a much better team than TCU, who may not have its starting running back for this game. 

The Bulldogs have not only won 10 straight times as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, but they have covered the spread in 9 of those 10 wins. 

I think in a situation like this, it’s typically a good idea to fade the crowd and it’s pretty clear to me that vast majority of people are taking the points in this one. I think that’s a mistake. UGA wins big and repeats as National Champs. 10*

The Seahawks let the season get away after that promising start, but all is not quite lost yet. A win against the Rams gives them a statistical chance.  Seattle rallied last week, putting up 23 points against a tough Jets defense.  Smith was solid again, and a little more diverse in his targets and RB Walker is finally back in form, off a pair of 100 yard games in his last two starts.  Their defense has been the stumbling block but it has shown recent improvement against some tough competition in their last three weeks. At this point it is at least better than the Rams'.
Other than the blow-out vs a hapless Broncos team, the Rams have not impressed, especially last week against the Chargers.  Other than Mayfield the Rams don't have much to play for.  They are up against an all-in Seahawks team that is tough at home.  And, they'll be playing in the rain.  The Rams defense has taken a huge turn for the worse lately.  They gave up 430 yards last week.  Their rushing defense has disintegrated, and their pass defense, sub-par all season, allowed a 120 rating with 0 sacks last week.  They will likely continue to run the ball, but Seattle's run defense has shown well lately.
A driven Seattle team will win and cover against the Rams, as LA plays out the string after a very disappointing season.

The Ravens, missing Lamar Jackson and other starters, travel to Cincinnati, to face Burrow and the mostly healthy Bengals. Taking the emotional unknown of last week's tragic event out of the game, this is not a situation that favors Baltimore. The Bengals are very much pass-first, in spite of a fine if underused RB in Mixon.  While Baltimore is very tough against the run, the Ravens' pass defense is barely average this year, and while they've shown improvement vs the pass lately, the Ravens have not faced a top QB since the Jags.  The Ravens can successfully press a QB, but Burrow is an old hand vs passer pressure, and the Bengals O line is much improved this year.
The Ravens struggle to put up points at any time.  They are reliant on the run game, and with Jackson out, it is up to Dobbins, with Huntley, if he plays, chipping in some yards.  Not to underestimate Dobbins, but the Bengals' defense will be the toughest rush defense that Baltimore has faced.  Note that the Steelers' 7th rated rush defense was able to hold Baltimore to 120 yards last week, down considerably from their 160+ average.
It remains to be seen if the Bengals can put last week's event at least on hold, but I do feel that, otherwise this game is a bit of a mismatch.  Look for the Bengals, with their fine air attack to win and cover.

The Titans are on the road, facing a surging Jags team for all the marbles.  While last week’s loss was more of a rest game, the Titans have stumbled almost unbelievably in their last 6 games, with the defense regressing almost everywhere but rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt.  Compare to the Jags’ defense who have shown real improvement down the stretch.  Points against totals are hugely better, and they are much tougher in the red zone and against the run.  Even their passing game is improving,  a bonus against the Titans poor pass offense.
On offense, there really is no comparison.  The Jags have much better rushing stats than Tennessee, supposedly the Titans’ realm.  Lawrence was not as strong last time out, but his improvement this year has been a real eye-opener.  He will face one of the easier pass defenses this week.  The Jags’ offense is much more balanced; the run offense has averaged 160+ yards in the last three weeks, although they will face a tough Titans’ run defense.
Not to mention beating the Titans just 4 weeks ago, the Jags have also beaten the Cowboys and the Texans, both of whom won against the Titans in recent weeks. The Titans REALLY miss Tannehill, and even with the King returning this week,  the Titans will have more than their hands full on Saturday.  Other than an attack of nerves, this game is there for the Jags to take.  Jaguars will win, cover, and head into the play-offs.

Utah is likely to be motivated here after losing last year’s Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State. The Utes led most of that game, only to see QB Cam Rising get hurt. 

The Utes are once again Pac 12 Champs and even though TE Kincaid won’t play here, they should have no problem scoring on a Penn State defense that allowed 41 to Michigan and 44 to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won’t have their top corner (Joey Porter Jr) here as well. 

Utah will be without CB Clark Phillips III, who is arguably their best defender. 

The Penn State offense is top 10 in the country at scoring touchdowns when inside the red zone. Conversely, the Utah defense was 110th at giving up TDs when opposing offenses get inside the 20. 

The market seems to believe we’re in store for a second straight high scoring Rose Bowl Game and so do I. The Over is 12-5 in Penn State’s last 17 non-conf games and 4-0 their last four games vs. Pac 12 opponents. 10* 

With the “skeleton crew” they’ll be trotting out, I don’t think you should expect many points from Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Among those missing in action on the offensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers will be: QB O’Connell, WR Jones and TE Durham. 

That’s why we’ve seen this line balloon over the course of the last couple weeks. Purdue will be without several defensive starters as well. But it’s the offense that I’m most worried about. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers also lost their head coach (Jeff Brohm) to Louisville. 

Brohm’s younger brother Brian will be the interim coach here. But how interested is he? Things are so dire at the QB position that famous alum Drew Brees has been tapped to mentor Austin Burton, who will be making just his second career start. 

LSU won’t have WR Boutee, who decided to opt-out. The Tigers also have opt outs on the defensive side, but because of their superior depth should have little problem shutting down Purdue’s depleted offense.

Unless the LSU offense goes completely wild in this game, which I don’t anticipate happening, then the Under looks like a formality. That’s the way the market is moving as well. 8*

The Raiders have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year, and are now at home to the best defense in the league with a fill-in QB. The 49ers have several reasons to keep their foot on the gas.  They have an outside chance at a bye week in the playoffs and they need to give their young and promising QB all the experience they can before the playoffs.  Vegas has seen their points-scored drop by 5 in their last three games and by thirteen last week.  They lost to the Rams and Steelers with a total of 26 points while Carr was at QB.  Now with an untried Stidham under center, the prospects are bleak for point production.  Stidham will have to face  a healthy Bosa and the rest of the 49ers headhunters.  Carr was sacked 3 times last week, and it could go up on Sunday.  The Raiders real hope is elite running back Jacobs, but he will have his hands full against the top rushing defense in the league.  Jacobs was limited to under three yards a carry last week.
Then there is young Brock Purdy, some very good targets, not to mention McCaffrey. The 49ers have put up31 points on average in their last three games, and 37 last week.  Purdy had a passer rating of 119, a completion rate of 69+ and just 1 pick in his last three games.  He faces a Raiders' team 27th ranked in pass defense, and 30th in sacks.
The benching of Raiders' long time quarterback will not be without effect on a Raiders team going nowhere fast. It will be pedal to the metal for SF on Sunday.  Take the 49ers to win and cover.

The Giants are home to the Colts in Week 17.  It is a very significant game for NY, and they likely couldn't have a better opponent.  The Colts are going nowhere fast, with an indifferent game last week and essentially no offense. Foles, with very limited time with the team, was about as expected; 3 points and a trio of picks. On a short week for the Colts, don't expect huge improvements from him.
The Colts' usually dependable defense has fallen apart in the last three games; their avg. points-allowed has ballooned to 37, they bombed against the Cowboys and were humiliated in the second half by the Vikings.  They are still tough on passers with 4 sacks last week, but their run defense is not elite, allowing 137 yards and 2+ TDs on average L3 games.
The Giants have the edge in all offensive categories.  They can run or pass, with both Barkley and Jones playing well lately. Jones' passer rating is consistently in the 90's.  He has cut down on turnovers, and can gain ground with his legs too.  He put up over 350 yards last week, but won't manage that against the Colts.
The Colts are, in my opinion, done for the year. They had 69 yards on the ground and 104 in the air last week against an average Chargers defense.  The Giants' postseason is ripe for the picking. They are healthier and at home.  Take the Giants to win and cover.

Who would believe the Jaguars as a potential play off team a year ago? The Jags now face the Texans on the road, hoping to improve on a 4-1 recent record.  Lawrence has the Jags' offense working very well, with a passer rating of over 100 in 5 of 7 games.  Last week was not one of them, but he still played a smart effective game with no picks, against a very tough Jets pass defense.  While we have seen more of a pass-first offense lately, the Jags, with Etienne and Robinson (and Lawrence chipping in), could go back to running the ball on Sunday.  Houston's rush defense is a mere shadow of their pass defense, and is 32nd in the league in rush yards allowed.  Lawrence has been protected well this season but will face some pressure from the Texans, who have had 4 sacks on average over their last three games. The pass defense is the Texans' best (some would say only) asset, but Lawrence maneuvered around an even better one last week.

The Jags' defense has shown improvement in most categories lately and should not be underestimated.  They've cut down on yards-allowed, are tough against the run and even their weak spot, pass yards-allowed, is improved.  They're averaging 3 sacks a game in their L3, and face an average Texans O-line this week.

Houston's offense is among the league's bottom feeders in almost every category.  While they have nothing to play for, they shouldn't be taken lightly.  The Jags are a legitimate potential playoff team, and will play like it on Sunday.  Take Jacksonville to win and cover on the road.

I’m targeting the CFP semifinal between Ohio State and Georgia for my biggest O/U play of bowl season. 

Ohio State is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games. We all saw the defensive issues against Michigan. But the Buckeyes are still averaging 44.5 points/game themselves for the season.

Georgia should have no problem putting up points Saturday night. They scored 50 in the SEC Championship against LSU. They also gave up 30 though. 

As great as the Bulldogs’ defense is, I see them struggling to contain Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud, who led the country in passing efficiency.

Also worth noting is that the Over is 6-0 the last six times Ohio State has faced a team with a winning record. I may add to my analysis later, but definitely wanted to get this pick out ASAP so you can bet now. I expect the number will continue to rise. 10*

Our first New Year’s Six Bowl Game is a matchup of top 10 teams, but #6 Tennessee and #7 Clemson are in drastically different places heading into the Orange Bowl.

Tennessee’s season came crashing down with a 63-38 loss to South Carolina in the second to last game. Not only was that a humiliating result, but it cost the Volunteers a shot at the College Football Playoff. Adding injury to insult, QB Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending injury. In addition to not having Hooker here, the Vols have seen their two top receivers opt out and they will be without offensive coordinator Alex Golesh, who is now the head coach at USF.

Clemson has some opt outs as well. But the big news for them is the switch at QB. Cade Klubnik is now the starter after an impressive ACC Championship Game performance where he completed 20 of 24 passes for 279 yards, sending DJ Uiagalelei packing. All of a sudden, an 11-2 season that was “disappointing” (by this program’s standard) has renewed enthusiasm. 

Hooker’s replacement is Joe Milton and you can look for him to struggle against what remains an outstanding Clemson defense (even with the opt outs). Milton is simply not very accurate on deep balls and was only 11 of 21 for 147 yards against Vanderbilt.

I think Clemson is the team that “wants” this game more. The Tigers have covered 11 of their last 14 bowl appearances and are 20-7-1 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents under Dabo Swinney. Lay the points. 10* 

I am holding my nose this week and taking the Cowboy against a wounded and slumping Titans side.  We don't know who will actually play for the Titans in a somehow meaningless game for their playoff hopes.  For the Cowboys, Thursday's game is a fine chance to press for a play-off bye week, and an opportunity to work out some bugs in their recent inabilities to defend.  There are some significant issues in the Cowboys' defense.  Their tidal surge of passer pressure (3rd in the league) has ebbed alarmingly in their last three weeks, exposing some real problems.  Their passing yards-allowed has climbed by a full 100yds L3, and is actually worse than the 31st ranked Titans' figures over the last three games.  Their rushing yards allowed did improve in their last game, but their abilities against the run have not impressed in the second half of the season.  Luckily for the Cowboys, the much injured Titans are in no position to take advantage.  Tannehill, a very under-rated QB, is out and Henry, who is questionable, may well be rested.  The Titans' pass attack was pitiful last week, and the Cowboys' passer rushers should have their way against a poor Titans' pass defense.
On the plus side for the Cowboys, Prescott and their pass offense has been outstanding in recent games.  Prescott's passer rating was a monster 124 last week, in spite of 6 sacks.  The Cowboys have averaged 270+ yards in the air with an over 70% completion rate lately.  The Titans are dependably one of the worst teams against the pass and their sack % is just 3% over their last tree games.  The Titans continue to be strong against the run, but in recent games we have seen the Cowboys rely less on their strong running game.
With just 14 points scored last week and an average of 18, that 10 points  to cover looks like a reasonable bet this week.  The Cowboys have averaged over 30 points lately, with 40 against the Eagles and 54 vs. the Colts.  Take Dallas to show improvement on defense, roll on offense, and win and cover.

Looking to go Over in the Pinstripe Bowl as Minnesota takes on Syracuse. It’s a very low total, one of the lowest of the entire bowl season.

This was set to be a battle of top tier running backs. But Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has opted out. That’s one of the reasons they are big favorites to the Golden Gophers, who will have Mohamed Ibrahim. 

The Orange closed the regular season poorly, by losing five of six after a 6-0 start. Minnesota, closed strong, winning four of five and has a defense that isn’t expected to give up many points to the Tucker-less Orange. But I expect Syracuse to pass the ball effectively in this game and catch the Golden Gophers defense off guard. 

On the other side, Minnesota should have its way on the ground against a Syracuse defense that is bad against the run. The Orange are 112th in rushing success allowed and 117th in line yards. 

Considering Syracuse allowed 38 or more points in three of its last five games, Minnesota won’t need much help getting this one Over the low total. Play Over. 10*

This matchup between Kansas and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl should produce a ton of points. The first thing you need to know is that Arkansas’ defense will be very short-handed, due to players opting out. The most notable absences are at linebacker where Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool won’t play. 

The Kansas offense had no problem putting up points in 2022, especially when QB Jalon Daniels was healthy, which he is here. The Jayhawks’ offense will be the best unit on the field Wednesday and comes in averaging over 34 points/game against defenses that mostly cared. Not sure Arkansas’ defense cares here and there will be a ton of inexperience out there.

But the Razorbacks, who are favored, should score as well. The Kansas’ defense isn’t any good as it yielded over 33 points/game in the regular season. The last three Jayhawks’ opponents scored 47, 55 and 43 points. 

I think this has a good shot at being the highest scoring bowl we’ve seen thus far, topping last night’s Birmingham Bowl (82 points). Over is the clear call.

The Over has hit in five of Kansas’ last six games and six of Arkansas’ last eight games. 10*

The uncertain status of QB John Rhys Plumlee makes this handicap a bit difficult, but UCF is certainly not the play given the uncertainty and Duke is a team that really improved throughout 2022 and should be fired up to be here in the Military Bowl (played in Annapolis, MD).  

The Blue Devils won five ACC games this year. That’s after winning none last year. This is the program’s first bowl since 2018, meaning the first for virtually every current player. On the other side, UCF had higher aspirations for the season than this game. The line move reflects the respective motivations. 

Losing to Tulane in the AAC Championship Game cost the Knights a shot at playing in the Cotton Bowl. They come into the bowl on a three-game ATS losing streak. There was an outright loss to Navy and they only beat USF by 7. 

All of Duke’s losses this year were by one score, so they could have finished better than 8-4 and even been in the ACC Title Game. The three conference losses were by a total of eight points. 

Duke QB Riley Leonard accounted for the third most touchdowns in the entire FBS (31 - 20 passing + 11 rushing). This is an offense that can run the ball effectively.  So can UCF, but Plumlee not being 100%/possibly out would hurt them. There’s no opt-outs for Duke, who will be at full strength and that should give them the edge over a possibly disinterested UCF team. 10* 

This number is down to -7 and I think it’s time to hit Memphis, who should be favored by double digits here against Utah State in the First Responder Bowl, playing in Gerald J Ford Stadium (home of SMU) in Dallas, TX. 

The venue is familiar to Memphis as this is where they played their last regular season game, which ended up being a 34-31 loss to SMU. That was one of three losses by a field goal or less for the Tigers, who went 0-4 in one-score games this season. That’s pretty unlucky.

Utah State was last seen suffering the worst beat of this, or any other, College Football season. They were on the verge of being Boise State outright, but then fell apart and ended up not even covering as 17-point underdogs. But close calls mostly went the Aggies way this season; they were 4-0 SU in one-score games.

Close game records aside; Memphis is the much better football team here. I’ve got Utah State rated as one of the very worst teams in a bowl this year. Memphis will be motivated to win as they want to avoid their first losing season since ‘13. As a favorite, the Tigers are 6-1 this year and are winning by an average of 20 points/game.

The Utah State offense is going to be without its two top running backs due to opt out and injury. They will struggle to move the ball while Memphis should have no problem cashing in against an Aggies’ defense that is 94th in points per drive allowed when opponents get inside the 40-yard line. Lay the points in this one. 10*

The Chargers, who still have a shot at a wild card spot, travel to meet up with a struggling Colts team, now finished as far as the postseason. The Colts’ strength has been their defense, but last week’s 2nd half debacle follows a 54 points- allowed effort to the Cowboys, neither looking like an elite defensive performance. 3 Fumbles, 11 penalties and 426 yards-against last week does not look like a team with it’s heart in the game. Coach Saturday’s solution? Replace the quarterback with Foles, who has about three days experience with the offense. Add the loss of Jonathon Taylor, who has driven the Colts’ offense, and you have a recipe for failure.

The Chargers don’t run much but Herbert and Co. have put up over more than 300 passing yards on average in the last three games.   Perhaps, as we have seen with many pass-centric teams in the late season, the Chargers will be running at the the Colts' average run defense.  Other than last week, Herbert doesn’t usually throw the ball away. He is 2nd in completion % and passing yards this season. The Chargers' very average rush defense is at least a little better against the run lately, holding the Titans to 127 rushing yards and just 1 TD on the ground. They’ve been respectable and improving against the pass, land have limited teams to just 19 points overall in their last three games.

The Chargers are healthier and starting to show what they are capable late in the season. I am not convinced the Colts will show up and put in a full effort after the poor showing of the last two weeks. LA has the momentum and the need for a win. Chargers to win and cover.

These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.

BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.

Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games. 

The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks! 

BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* 

The Broncos are in LA to take on the Rams on Christmas day.  Who gets the black stuff gift-wrapped under the tree?  My bet is the Rams, and here is why.

The Broncos are top five on defense, tough to play against in all areas.  The Rams have a QB with 3 weeks experience and a suspect track record up against a very good pass defense. with good passer pressure stats as well.  The Rams are even worse than the Broncos as far as protecting their passer, and rarely run the ball.  Mayfield will have a bull's eye on his back all afternoon.

The offensively-challenged Broncos have actually scored more points than someone over the last three weeks, and that "someone" is the Rams.  The Broncos have kicked it up a notch on offense recently.  Their ran for 50% of plays last week, finishing with 165 yards and  4.9 a carry.  Russell Wilson is back and Aaron Donald is not.  Merry Christmas Russ.  The Rams defense has struggled lately, and the pass defense is only 22nd rated.  Wilson will be all in to finish on a high note after a putrid season.

The Broncos are favored, which just shows how far the mighty Rams have fallen.  Give me the Broncos to win and cover.

The Dolphins are home for Christmas after three straight road losses, so situation-critical for them.  The Packers are off a pair of wins and still have a small shot at a wild card spot.  Miami has a better record at home this season.  They had better step up this week.  They gave up 29 points on average in their last three games, a full 8 points off break-even.  Other than passer pressure, their pass defense is pretty poor, averaging  close to 300 yards in their last three games. Their red zone defense and 3rd down conversions-allowed are well below average as well.
Tua bounced back after a couple of rough outings, but in a bit of a twist, the Dolphins ran much more last week, resulting in a huge jump in rush play %, rush yards (188) and yds per carry (6.5).  The Packers have a top ten pass defense, but struggle against the rush, so Miami would be wise to continue their run tactic.
It has been a disappointing season for the Packers, so it is difficult to buy their recent wins as a turnaround, however Rodgers does seem to have more confidence in his targets, and his receivers are healthy.  I feel like the Packers match up well against the Dolphins.  The Packers might just have a little gas in the tank for a playoff run, so this game is a must-win for them as well.  I'm looking for the Packers in the warm climes of Miami to at least keep this game close.  Take the Packers plus the points.  Oh, and a Very Merry Christmas!!

It is the Bengals vs the Patriots in a Christmas Eve match-up.  The Patriots are off a foolish loss in week 15.  They beat poor teams (usually) but struggle more than expected vs elite ones.  The Bengals, winners of 7 straight games, are an elite team, certainly on offense.  Burrow's average  passer rating is 105 over the last 3 weeks, and Week 15's was exactly double that of Mac Jones'.  The Bengals have a solid run game in Mixon and Perine should they choose to use it, but really, the offense is all about the pass.

The Patriots are a top ten defense, but have given up more points than the Bengals' somewhat  underrated D.  NE's best quality is  passer pressure: they are third in sacks and first in completion rate allowed.  They do give up more TDs to opposing passers than might be expected.  Burrow is certainly no stranger in dealing with passer pressure, and the Bengals' O-line is much improved.

The Patriots are very average on offense; mid-pack in points-scored, but last in red zone offense, and poor in third down conversions.  They have a pair of solid running backs, but Mac Jones isn't scaring anyone lately.  The Bengals defense is solid; eighth and improving in rush yards allowed. Their weak point is their pass defense.  They  are just 20th in passer yards given up, but other than last week, are very stingy in pass TDs allowed.

Anything can happen on any given week, but the Bengals' as a 3 point favorite is a golden opportunity to me.  Jump on this play.

The surging Detroit Lions travel to meet a Panthers team that has won 2 of 3 games, however the only team to beat Detroit recently is the Bills.  Goff has been an eye-opener this year. Now a top ten QB, he has been well protected, averaging over 300 yards passing with no picks in 3 weeks.  The Lions' time of possession is 56% in the last three weeks, and in spite of a pass-first offense, they have a very acceptable running game.
The Lions' defense has made great strides lately with avg. points allowed at just 18 in their last three games, the rush defense showing great improvement, and with a big increase in passer pressure.
The Panthers' offense with Sam Darnold at QB put up 30 points vs the Seahawks, but are otherwise averaging just 19 points-for a game.  They are poor in the red zone and in 3rd down conversions.  Their running game is all over the map, usually solid, but with just 21 yards vs the Steelers last week.  They are just 30th in passing yards and passer rating this season, and Darnold was sacked 4 times last week.
On defense, the Panthers are competent, although they struggle defending in the red zone and on 3rd down conversions, and are nothing special in passer pressure.
This is definitely a good situation for the Lions to keep rolling.  The Panthers will struggle to keep up with Detroit's offense on Saturday.  A very favorable line is available.  Take Detroit to win and cover.

Wake Forest finished the regular season on a 1-4 slide, its only win coming against slumping Syracuse. But I do expect the Demon Deacons to “show up” for the Gasparilla Bowl against Missouri. QB Sam Hartman is just one touchdown away from tying an ACC record.

Missouri picked up a nice win over Arkansas in its last regular season game, which they needed to become bowl eligible. My concern with the Tigers is that they only averaged 18 points/game outside of Columbia. Now some of that is due to facing the gauntlet of SEC defenses. But, home or road, Mizzou scored 24 or less eight times this year.

I like what I’m hearing from Wake head coach Dave Clawson, who has said he’s happy with the matchup and wants to beat a SEC team. Clawson always seems to get his team to exceed expectations every year. Receiver A.T. Perry not opting out of the bowl is another plus. He’s Hartman’s favorite option to throw to.

Missouri’s defense, which is the strength of the team, is dealing with some opt-outs. The two top defensive linemen won’t play and neither will safety Martuez Manuel. 

On the offensive side of the ball, Mizzou has had to say goodbye to its playcaller (took another job) and receiver Lovett (led team in catches won’t play today either). In the end, look for Wake QB Hartman to be the difference for a Wake team that is on a 9-4 SU/ATS run in bowls. Lay it. 10*

It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. 

Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. 

Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. 

That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. 

Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10*

The Jets host the Jaguars in the rain and the wind and prime time on TNF. No Mike White this week for the Jets.  It is back to Zach Wilson, who has performed poorly this season, and does not appear to have the confidence of his team mates. As good as the Jets' defense is they are offensively challenged, averaging just 17 points in their last 3 games, and 27th ranked in red zone scoring. Wilson has just 6 TDs, to 6 picks, and has one of the worst completion %s in the league.  The Jets are not compensating on the ground, with just 82 yards average rushing last 3 games and 50 last week.
The opposing QB, Lawrence has found his form lately, with QB rating of 121 last week, and 114 L3 games.  He has been well protected and threw for 4 TDs vs the Cowboys last week.  He has paid his dues, fouling up on a rain-soaked field earlier, and will know what to expect.  As good as Trevor Lawrence has been, it would be remiss to underplay Etienne and the rest of the rush offense.  The Jags had 190+ yards vs the Cowboys in overtime and 127 yards average, compared to the Jets' totals.
There is no question that the Jets have a formidable defense. There is a little wiggle room with the run defense, and they haven't been as tough on passers lately.  Williams is still questionable which could be a reason for some of the defensive slippage.  The Jag's defense has been opportunistic at best, often below average, but tougher on passers lately, averaging 3 sacks a game/ Last three.

The Jags have the momentum, the better run game and a much better pass attack.  They rallied against a tough Cowboys team last week. I just can't see where the points will come for the Jets this week. Take the Jags, a slight underdog, to win.

I’m going to lay the points here with South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl. Since making the jump to the FBS level a decade ago, the Jaguars have never won in a bowl. They’ve only been to two, the last one coming in 2016 (a 45-21 loss to Air Force in the Arizona Bowl). Motivation always has to be part of your handicap in these early bowl games. USA should be motivated to win here. 

Meanwhile, there’s an odd situation with Western Kentucky. Their QB Austin Reed, who was second in the country in passing yards (Penix of Washington #1), announced his intention to enter the transfer portal. But then there was an “about face” and Reed is back, set to start the bowl. Teammates are saying the right things, but it’s hardly ideal bowl prep.

The Sun Belt is already 3-0 in bowl games with Troy, Southern Miss and Marshall all victorious thus far. Conference USA is pretty weak and has already dropped two of three bowl matchups. The lone win was UAB against a MAC school (Miami OH). The MAC is the only conference I have rated lower than C-USA. 

South Alabama was 2-10 SU three years ago and now has “flipped” that record, entering this game with a 10-2 record. Their defense is excellent, allowing just 19.4 points and 303.7 yards per game. This matchup is all about the Jaguars’ defense vs. the Hilltoppers’ offense. 

Again, I’m playing the favorite here. USA’s only two losses this year were to Troy (Sun Belt Champs) and UCLA and they were by a combined five points! WKU also lost a close game to Troy and stayed within three at Indiana. But the Hoosiers aren’t a bowl team and the Hilltoppers also got blown out by North Texas and Auburn. USA’s motivation of trying to win their first bowl trumps all. 10* 

The MAC representative has generally not fared well in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, claiming just three wins since 2011. Now it isn’t always MAC vs. Mountain West, but when it has been, the MWC is 5-3 straight up. But for this year’s matchup between Eastern Michigan and San Jose State, I like the MAC team getting points.

Part of that is motivation. Coach Chris Creighton has really done a pretty good job at turning this EMU program around. The Eagles had been a doormat for years prior to Creighton’s arrival, but this is will be their fifth bowl appearance in his nine seasons. The thing is, they’ve yet to win one. The program’s last bowl win came all the way back in 1987,  in the California Raisin Bowl, against (you won’t believe this, San Jose State). It’s one of the longest bowl droughts in the FBS. 

Off a poor finish to the regular season, where they failed to cover their last six games, don’t see where the motivation for SJSU comes from. This also figures to be the rare cold weather bowl game. Temperatures are expected to be in the 30’s, something the Spartans are not accustomed with.

Eastern Michigan won its final three regular season games (scoring 31 or more every time) to finish 8-4. QB Powell had 581 yards passing and a 6-0 TD-INT ratio the last two games. In its last two games away from home, the San Jose State defense allowed 35 and 43 points. EMU can run as well. I expect them to put up a good number of points here. 

As for the San Jose State offense, it is led by QB Cordeiro, who ran hot and cold all year. Eastern Michigan was #2 against the pass in the MAC and won six of the seven games it didn’t allow 240+ pass yards. SJSU’s offensive line is bad, allowing too much pressure and there isn’t much of a ground game. 10*

It will be a cold day in Lambeau Field when the Rams travel to face the Packers.  the Packers are healthier, better rested and favored by a touchdown on Monday.  Mayfield was the talk of the town this week for that last minute drive to beat the Raiders in week 14.  Let's keep things in perspective; he and the Rams did nothing for most of the game, the Raiders' pass defense is very poor, and the Rams ended the game with 17 points, almost exactly average for them this season. a plus for the Rams is their run defense, 4th rated this season although yards-against have climbed in the last three games. They are generally below average in passing yards allowed and don't pressure the passer particularly.  On offense, they don't usually run the ball although that could change this week.  The Packers are very poor against the run, and much tougher (4th in yards allowed} when defending against the pass.  Mayfield has been with the team barely 10 days.  I think he was running on adrenaline last week and this week will be the real test.
Rodgers has not been all that he can be, but will have both key wide receivers this week, and has looked more comfortable in recent games.  The Packers have a fine duo of running backs, who the Packers have been using more with good success. With Rodgers at home and under the lights and with an extra week off, I am taking the Packers to win and cover on Monday.

The Titans face the Chargers at home in a a very significant game for both sides.  The Chargers are healthier this week with 2 top WRs and their center healthy which should provide a boost to their passing offense.  Herbert was on fire last week, throwing for a massive 342 yards vs the Dolphins.  Pass defense is the Titan's sore point; they've given up the 31st ranked passing yards this season including 340 on average in the last three games.

As Henry goes, so go the Titans' offense. Usually. The king bounced back vs the Jaguars last week after a couple of off weeks, but the Titans' pass attack just hasn't been dynamic enough to win games lately.  They average just 175 yards passing and 18 points-for, and even with Henry they are just 16th in rush yards this season.

Henry should be able to run against LA, but the Chargers have been tough to move against in the air lately, with an opponent's average passer rating of 81 L3 games, and 65 last week.

The Chargers have the momentum, are at home and need this game to keep playoff hopes alive.  Look for the Chargers' pass attack to improve this week and LA to win and cover.

The Eagles are best in so many categories, points for, TDs scored, and most pass defense categories to name a few, that it is easier to talk about their faults which mostly relate to their run defense.  Rush yards-against is just 18th rated, yards per carry is 24th, and they are poor vs rushing QBs.  They have also allowed high marks to passers in two of their last three games.
The Bears' offense is best in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry.  They run the most often in the league, and have Fields, who is not the best option as a passer, but has the best QB wheels in the game.  That said, the Bears have been throwing the ball more lately, whether out of choice or necessity.  On defense it is a different story.  The Bears are poor vs the run, while somewhat better against the pass.  They don't blitz or pressure passers much, but have handled rushing QBs like Hurts well.  The Bears have not been able to control the game the way the Commanders did against the Eagles, but they have managed to put up points against everyone else they've played recently other than the Jets.
The Eagles are averaging 41 points over their last three games, but do give up points, 20 on average.  Fields and the Bears rush success will keep this game from being a blow-out, But I'm betting Philly will continue to rack up the points.  Take Sunday's game to go over.

The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins” pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami’s pass attack. The Dolphins don’t run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!)

The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn’t seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They’ve been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season.

Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami’s pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under.

Rice is a 5-7 team that only got to a bowl because there weren’t enough 6-win teams. For that reason, most will be writing off the Owls here in the Lending Tree Bowl vs. Southern Miss. But don’t discount the Owls’ motivation. This will be the program’s first bowl appearance since 2014. They will be out to win. So I’m taking the points.

Southern Miss is in a bowl for the first time since 2019. They won their final game (20-10 over LA Monroe) to get to 6-6. The Golden Eagles’ offense goes through RB Frank Gore Jr, who I concede could be a problem for a shaky Rice run defense (166.8 YPG allowed). 

These teams are quite familiar with one another as they were rivals in Conference USA up until this season when USM bolted for the Sun Belt. Rice has actually beaten Southern Miss each of the last two seasons, 24-19 and 30-6, both times as a one-point underdog. 

Half of Rice’s games this season were decided by seven points or less. The same was true of Southern Miss. With a low total, I think it just makes sense to take the points here. 

Turnovers were the Owls’ bugaboo this year. Only Northwestern coughed it up more. As long as they can protect the football, I have no doubt that they can cover this number and possibly win outright. 10* 

This is the more “marquee” bowl on Friday as we’ve got Troy taking on UTSA in the Cure Bowl, played in Orlando, FL. You’ve got to think the Roadrunners want this one badly. They’ve gone 0-2 in bowls the last two years and are 0-3 all-time in bowls in program history.

I won’t dispute the fact that Troy has the edge defensively heading into this game. But my concern for the Trojans is whether or not they have enough offense to keep up with UTSA. My gut says “no.” UTSA averages 38.7 points/game, which is Top 12 in the country and #1 among Group of Five teams.

UTSA QB Frank Harris leads the charge with 3,865 yards passing this season and 9,158 in his career. Him sticking around to play in this game is a major reason why I’m putting my money on the Roadrunners. 

Both teams won their respective conferences, Troy the Sun Belt and UTSA C-USA. Of the four combined losses, three were to ranked teams (at the time) and the other on a Hail Mary.

Troy is 10-2 ATS, tied for the best cover percentage in the FBS. But teams coming into the bowls with a ATS win percentage of .750 or higher are just 41% ATS over the last decade. I believe UTSA is the substantially better team, which is NOT reflected in the line. 10*

Double digit dogs in bowl games have been a valuable investment through the years. We’ve got one of those in our very first bowl game of the season as Miami takes on UAB in the Bahamas.

Now I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami ends up as a single digit dog by kickoff. That’s because on Thursday afternoon it was announced UAB stud RB DeWayne McBride is sitting this game out. UAB already was dealing with some upheaval as Trent Dilfer will be coming in as the next head coach. But it will be an interim (Bryant Vincent) coaching this game. Many of the players wanted Vincent to get the head coaching job on a permanent basis.

Both teams were 6-6 SU in the regular season. However, UAB didn’t cover the spread a single time away from home (0-6 ATS). McBride is a major loss as he led all of FBS in rushing yards (1,713) and touchdowns (19). 

Miami is a perfect 3-0 ATS in bowls under Chuck Martin and this will be the first time since 2003-04 that the program has gone bowling in consecutive years. The RedHawks defeated North Texas in the Frisco Classic last year. They have covered four straight bowls. 

I’d bet this one ASAP as I expect the line to go down. But, no matter the number, taking the points would be the right move. In fact, an outright upset wouldn’t shock me here. UAB is 0-3 ATS this season when playing with more than a week of rest. The Blazers’ defense has struggled against mobile QBs and Miami has one in Aveon Smith (with Brett Gabbert out). A double digit dog with a total this low is attractive. Take the points. 8*

The 49ers survived without Jimmy G very well thank you very much, however it was a  very ugly week for the Seahawks, losing to the Lowly Panthers at home.  The Panthers ran all over the Seahawks, finishing with more than 200 yards rushing.  Geno Smith looked very human vs. a decent Panthers' pass defense, and was sacked three times by a team 20th in sacks this season.  The Giants defense will be in a feeding frenzy after a no sacks but dominant defensive performance against Tampa Bay.  The jury is still out on injured Seahawks' running backs, though it looks like Walker will be back.  The 49ers are not a team to face with an unbalanced offense, and Seattle managed just 46 yards rushing yards last week and an average of 67 yards L3 games. Purdy is questionable at QB, but there is nothing wrong with the 49ers' running game. These are very favorable odds for the moment, and they will not get better.  Jump on this one without delay.

The Cardinals put points on the board when they face mediocre defenses, but that hasn't guaranteed a win by any means.  When they face a top defense, and there haven't been many lately, they struggle to score at all.  It isn't as if Murray or the Cardinals' offense has excelled in any offensive areas.  Murray has been average in passing yards for, and worst in the NFL in yards per attempt and completion. He might be more difficult against the Patriots as a rusher.  The Patriots have struggled to contain running quarterbacks in the past. Wheels or not, I have confidence that New England will shut down Murray and the Cardinals offense.
Points have come at a premium as the Patriots have averaged just 15 per game in their last three starts, but that included both the Bills (4th ranked D) and the Jets (6th ranked D.). Against weaker defenses, the Patriots have but up 52 points total.  I has been an exaggerated pattern all season.  New England scores big against weak defenses, and not at all vs dominant ones.
The Cardinals are ineffective vs the pass, giving up the 30th ranked points and a passer rating of 107 in their last three games.  They do blitz but have just 23 sacks to date.  This is not really a meaningful game for Arizona, and much there is a sizable amount of distraction on the sidelines.  The Patriots are still in a wild card position if they can reverse their fortunes this week.  Watch the Patriots limit Murray and the Cardinals offense, while scoring enough points to win and cover.

The Buccaneers face the 49ers at home after a come-from-behind victory vs the Saints last week.  Let's not forget that the Bucs did nothing on offense for most of the game, ending with one less than the usual average 18 points on offense.  The 49ers defense is a different beast than the Saints'.  They are first overall, stifling against the run if Tampa attempts it, and a healthy eighth against the pass.  The 49ers have held passers including Tua to a 69 passer rating in their last three weeks. The 49ers are also physically tough on passers, and had 4 sacks and 4 takeaways last week.
I expect a cautious approach from Purdy and the 49ers offense on Sunday, possibly running the ball more than they have lately.  The Bucs' defense is just behind the 49ers in points given up, and 4th in sacks. As much attention as the QBs have received this week, Sunday's game is much more likely a battle between a pair of top defenses.  Take the total to go under.

The Raven are an underdog in Pittsburgh, missing Lamar Jackson for at least this game.  Huntley filled in well against a tough Broncos defense, passing for 187 yards and throwing for a high completion rate, while running efffectively and getting the game-winning TD. We will likely see more of a pass-focused attack from Huntley, which is a benefit vs the Steelers.  The Steelers are tough against the rush, but one of the worst teams in the league when defending against the pass. They don't even pressure passers consistently with just 22 sacks, including only one last week.  The Steelers' big defensive weapon, TJ Watts is questionable and likely compromised for this week.

 Rookie QB Pickett has shown much better in recent weeks, but against relatively poor defenses.  The Ravens are easily a top ten defense, very good at limiting points and third down conversions. The Steelers rushed for over 150 yards last week but no one runs successfully against the Ravens.  While they are looser (but improving) in passing yards allowed, they will be tough on the young quarterback, with 37 sacks on just a 19% pressure rate.   

The Ravens are a large step above any defense that the Steelers have shown well against, and Pittsburgh may have much more trouble moving the ball. Considering the Steelers' pass defense, Huntley and the Ravens may show quite well against the Steelers on Sunday.  Take the Ravens to cover, if not win.

The Lions are favored and it is not really a surprise by the numbers. No team has improved as much on offense this year as the Lions.  Their points-scored total has improved by a touchdown in recent games and they have been brilliant in the red zone.  They trail the Vikings in only one offensive category (rush yards per attempt) over the last three games.  The Vikings have experienced some drop-off on offense, especially in pass categories in recent games.  Some of this decline can be explained by their competition; they've faced 4 top-ten defenses in their last 4 games, and still won 3 of them.
The Lions have been notorious this season for poor defense, but there has been a recent improvement.  They have seen their points allowed drop by a TD in their last three games, and they held the Jags and Giants to under 18 points.  They've seen their passer pressure stats improve as the Vikings' have retreated.  Much of this increase is a result of the Lions controlling the game on offense.  The offense was on the field 61 % of the time last week, and this against a tough Jags pass defense.  The Vikings have the worst pass defense in the league, allowing an average of 345 passing yards in their last three games.  They even allowed Mac Jones a 120 passer rating.  Goff has hit his stride, is well protected, and doesn't throw the ball away. I don't believe this is a very good match-up for the Vikings in spite of their much superior record. This may be a high scoring game, but I fully expect the new improved Lions to win and cover on Sunday.  

The Rams, at home to the Raiders this week, are in a pretty deep hole, missing Kupp, Stafford, Donald and a host of others, and with possibly Baker Mayfield at QB.  The Rams have almost abandoned their pass-first offense, with rush plays shifting from 38% for the season to over 50% in the last three weeks.  Against Seattle, they had considerably more rush yards (171) than pass yards (148).  However it is not just the passing game that is struggling.  There is almost no area on defense that hasn't declined significantly in the last three games.  The Rams have allowed over 300 yards passing, 26 points against and a passer rating of 111 L3.  Rush yards have remained consistent mainly because opposing teams are jumping on the Rams' poor pass defense.
As much as the Rams' defense has faltered, the Raiders appear finally to be returning to form. The Raiders' defense has improved dramatically in red zone defense, rush yards allowed, and yards per rush attempt of late.  The one area they are still weak in remains against the pass, but they have toughened up in passer pressure, and saw their sack total rise to 5 last week. It would be very surprising if the Rams pass game put much on the board this week, irregardless of the defense.  On offense, Carr has been well protected lately, and the Carr to Adams connection is as good as any in the league.  The Raiders' yards per completion soared to over 15 1/2 last week, so the Rams will have to look out for a very explosive pass offense.  Vegas running back Josh Jacobs has been a big part of the renaissance, and while he is questionable, the league's top rusher is still expected to play.
There will likely be many Raiders fans in attendance this week, hoping to revel in how the Mighty Rams have fallen.  The line is Raiders -6.5, which seems high, but doing the math, surprisingly do-able for a surging Raiders team not completely out of the wild card picture at the moment.  Take the Raiders to win and cover. 

The Buccaneers are at home and facing the Saints, a team that has dominated Brady since his arrival in Tampa. It is a critical game, but neither team seems to be playing with much success lately. The Bucs have averaged just 18 points a game all season, a far cry from their heyday. The Saints offense managed a goose egg last week, but did hold a tough 49’ers offense to just 13 points. Both defenses have limited the opposition to just 17 points in their last three games.

Tampa, at 32nd in most rush categories, will do anything other than run the ball, despite the success they had against the Seahawks. The Saints will run but appear to be spinning their wheels for the last 3 weeks, managing just 3 yards a carry, 60 yards a game, and no points at all from the run. New Orleans’ pass attack under Dalton has been consistently very average, with nothing standing out other than too many picks, sacks and fumbles.

Brady has been accurate, well protected until last week, but playing small ball all season, with the 26th (and sinking) ranked yards per completion figures in the league. With Wirfs out and the usual Saints strategy for Brady of “go straight at him”, he may just sully his uniform this week.

The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier in the season in New Orleans, but the Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season when facing them on the road. I think the safest outcome this week is in the total. Look for both defenses to star against a pair of struggling offenses, and wager on the under.

The Titans face the Eagles, who are 4-1 at home, and on the rebound from a few weeks of indifferent play.  Their biggest concern is the alarming number of points they allowed against the Commanders and Packers. They are healthier this week and face a Titans team that does not put up a ton of points nor yards, nor do they control time of possession like the Commanders.  The Titans' offense is usually all about Henry and the run game, but that has not been the case lately.  The Titans have managed to rush for just 71 yards on average in their last three games, while running the ball just 42% of the game.  Tannehill has thrown the ball well over 100 yards more than the Titans' average, has been accurate and better protected in that time.  Facing the Eagles, the Titans might be better resorting to plan A, unless their is some issue with Henry.
The Eagles are just 18th vs the run but 2nd in passing yards allowed.  They will get to Tannehill (3rd in sacks)and are best in the league in takeaways.  As for the Eagles offense, this may be the game when we see Hurts return to his passing game.  In spite of the enormous success with the running game last week, the Eagles face a Titans team that is tough vs the run but 31st in passing yards allowed.  Let's not forget that the Eagles can be very good in the air, with the best offense in the red zone, and are 3rd in third down conversions.
I've  been on the Titans often this season with success, but I am afraid that they are catching an Eagles team on the upswing.  Henry's lack of success is troubling, and the Titans have some significant injuries this week.  Look for a better defensive game from the Eagles and  for Hurts to do what ever is required for victory.  Take the Eagles to win and cover.

The Falcons are in 2nd place in a very weak NFL South, but have failed to break .500 despite many chances.  The Steelers are last in their division, but appear to be the team with some momentum, showing improvement in many offense and defense area.  The Falcons are all about the run,  4th in rushing yards, with a trio of running backs and a good rushing QB in Mariota.  This rushing success hasn't translated into points as the Falcons have seen their scoring drop precipitously in recent weeks.  The 7th ranked Steelers rush defense matches up well against a run-first offense, limiting rush yards to an average of 67, and yards/attempt to 3.1 in in their last three games.
The Steelers are getting improved play from rookie QB Pickett and RB Harris, and have seen their points scored take a 25% leap over the last three weeks, including a win against the Colts and and impressive game vs the Bengals.  The Pittsburgh defense is much tougher on quarterbacks, generating 3 sacks last week.  The Falcons are one of the league's lightweights in passer pressure, and had no sacks last week.
I underestimated the Steelers' improvement last week, and won't be burned again.  They have been much better in controlling the game, with 56% time of possession rate in the last three weeks. Look for continued improvement from Pickett and a improving defense against a stagnant Falcons team.  The Steelers to win and cover.

The Giants, at home to a commanding Washington team, have fallen on harder times lately.  Their fine running back Barkley hasn't been nearly as dynamic lately and the rush offense has dropped by 30 yards a game L3.  This is a huge concern in a rush-first offense.  Where the Giants real trouble lies is on defense, with significant decreases in effectiveness in numerous areas; points allowed, and red zone defense to name just 2 of many.   As much as the Giants' defense has struggled, the Commanders' has surged. They've seen a drop in points-allowed from 19 to 14, and opposing passer rating drop from 90 to 70, comparing last three games to season average.  The Commanders' most impressive stat in their recent surge is their ability to control games through time of possession. and I believe this will continue on Sunday.  Their rush game, from a variety of sources, may not be flashy but they consistently move the sticks enough to maintain possession.  Heinicke doesn't thrill anyone as a passer, but has been very well protected in recent games, and effective as a game manager.  The Commanders face a poor rush defense on Sunday; the Giants are just 26th and struggling against the run.  They've allowed significantly more pass yards lately and in spite of a blitz-heavy pass defense, they are just 26th in sacks.
I've been riding the Commanders all through their recent success and am a huge believer in their continued success in week thirteen.  It may be more of "winning by inches", but take the Commanders to win and cover again.

Since 2005, no double digit favorite has lost a Power 5 Conference Championship Game (22-0 SU, 13-9 ATS). So Michigan should feel pretty comfortable about its path to the College Football Playoff. Honestly, even if they lost this game, they’d probably still end up in the top four.

I don’t think the Wolverines will lose this game outright, but I also don’t think we’ll be getting a repeat of last year’s Big 10 Championship Game where they destroyed Iowa 42-3 as a 12-point favorite.

As is the case here, Michigan was off a win over Ohio State and staring at a playoff berth going into last year’s title game. But they were also looking to make a statement on a national level and weren’t guaranteed a top four spot as they are here.

Last year, most looked at the number and thought Iowa was getting too many points. No one is saying that about an 8-4 Purdue team that sort of lucked into the Big West title. But I look for the Boilermakers to be competitive in this spot.  They are 7-6 SU vs. Top 25 opponents the last five years and have beaten Top 5 teams in the past. Also, teammates will rally around QB Aidan O’Connell, whose brother tragically passed away. 

Unranked underdogs have fared well recently in Conference Championships, going 14-6 ATS when matched up with a Top 25 opponent. Michigan is dealing with the distraction of felony gun charges being brought against DT Smith. RB Blake Corum is officially done for the season. Too many points here. 10* 

This is 1 of 5 regular season rematches this weekend. In case you were wondering, there’s been no real significant ATS edge for either team - the regular season winner or loser - in this situation. At least going back to 2005 there hasn’t been. That said, I do like Fresno State here to avenge a 40-20 regular season loss that took place right here on the blue turf.

The Bulldogs were 10.5-point underdogs when they came to Boise on October 8th. But some context must be provided. They were without QB Jake Haener and the drop off to the backup is significant. It was also FSU’s third straight road game and they’d been out East (UConn) the week prior. 

Fresno State hasn’t lost since, winning seven in a row and scoring 30 or more in each of the last six games. Haener is now back. The team won comfortably, 30-0, last week at home over Wyoming.

Boise State has also gotten a lot better since 10/8, thanks to Dirk Koetter being elevated to offensive coordinator and a change at QB to Taylen Green. The Broncos are 6-1 the last 7 games with the only loss coming out of conference, by a field goal, to BYU. However, they have been shaky in the last two games, winning by only three at Wyoming and then getting a miracle cover last week vs. Utah State. It’s rare that you can say that a team won by 19 points and maybe should have lost outright. But that was the case for the Broncos last week.

The underdog has covered in 7 of the last 8 MWC Championship Games. Fresno State is 4-0 ATS all-time in MWC Champ Games, three of those covers coming against Boise. Eight of the last nine times these teams have played, the underdog has covered. Underdogs have won seven of the nine “Group of 5” title games outright the last two seasons. Take the points here. 10*

Conference USA is up first on Conference Championship weekend as UTSA will HOST North Texas. These teams met in the regular season, here in the Alamodome, with UTSA winning 31-27. But North Texas still was able to cover as a 10-pt underdog. I like them to cover as an underdog again and possibly even win the game outright. The Mean Green are 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season.

There were three touchdowns scored in the final 2:36 of that previous meeting, two by UTSA, including the game winner with just 15 seconds left on the clock. So North Texas was THAT close to pulling the outright upset, despite being -19 in first downs (32-13) for the game. I don’t see that FD disparity repeating itself this time. 

Now UTSA comes into this C-USA Title Game on a nine-game win streak overall. They have won all 10 games this season in which they were favored and done so by an average of 16.0 points/game. But that’s a little bit misleading. They had three blowouts over Texas Southern (FCS), La Tech and Rice. As a home favorite this season, UTSA is just 1-4 ATS.

Last week, the Roadrunners had to rally from way back to beat UTEP, 34-31. UTSA admittedly had nothing to play for in that game, but ended up having to score the last 20 points just to get the win. They fell behind 24-0 and got back in the game with a long INT return for TD. 

Including the win over North Texas, UTSA has had a fair number of close calls this season. Five of their wins have come by six points or less, two of those requiring overtime. Unranked underdogs like North Texas are on a 14-6 ATS (70%) run in these conference title games. Give me the points here as underdogs that have failed to cover at least two in a row coming into conference title games (applies to North Texas) are on a 19-4 ATS run, covering the spread by an average of almost 11 points/game.  10*

The Bills face the Patriots at home in a much anticipated meeting. The Patriots haven’t face many top offenses this year, so the Vikings’ high point total didn’t really surprise. As good as their offense has been, NE can struggle against elite and especially rushing QBs. While Allen is playing hurt, there is nothing wrong with his legs, and he has a terrific track record against NE. The Patriots had very little success in managing Jefferson last week. Can they do any better against “Allen to Diggs?”

The injury-depleted Bills aren’t playing up to their early season standard in the last month, but it hasn’t been the offense that has taken the biggest hit. Buffalo has averaged 29 points on offense over the last three games, almost the same as their season’s average. They are running the ball more and had solid success in the red zone last week. Where the Bills have struggled in the last 4 weeks is on defense. They have seen their points-allowed climb to 27 over the last three games, up 8 from their season average. The Patriots, who are not the strongest offense managed to put up 26 points and over 400 yards on offense against the Vikings last week. The Bills have had reinforcements on the injury front, but now have Von Miller MIA, a huge hit. Jones had his best game of the season last week, with 3 TDs, no picks and a 116 passer rating. The Bills have allowed 293 passing yards in the last 3 games, and a 93 passer rating. While the Patriots are just 2 games away from a miserable 10 point result on offense, I think there is potential for them to put up some points this week again. The total is Thursday night’s best bet. Wager on the over.

Ryan is back at QB for the Colts, and while he didn't excel last week, he will face the Steelers' much poorer pass defense in Week 12.  Ryan has been very good at home this season, and while Jonathon Taylor is a solid running back, the Colts are statistically a pass-first offense. This bodes well against the Steelers, who are essentially last in the league when defending the pass.  The Steelers have a reputation as a top team against the run, which is somewhat true. They do limit the opposition to under 4 yards per rush attempt, and 67 yards rushing on average in their last three games, but given how poor their pass defense is, their last three opponents chose to pass 64% of the time.  The Colts have had problems protecting the passer this season, however the Steelers are not the man-eaters of yesteryear in passer pressure, with just a 14% pressure rating and 19 sacks.
Pickett played a better game last week but has yet to prove himself.  The Colts defense is tough to move the ball against.  They held the Eagles to just 17 points last week, allow less rush yards per attempt than the Steelers, and are 6th in passing yards allowed.  They are physically very tough on the passer with 28 sacks and 85 pressures to date.
The Colts are not out of the playoff picture entirely, so Monday will be a more meaningful game for them.  Look for another big game at home from Ryan, generating enough Colts points to win and cover.

The Buccaneers tested the Seahawks defense in their European match-up, and the Seahawks, whose defense looked to be on the upswing after 4 straight wins, failed the exam.  Tampa doesn't usually run much, but wound up with 161 rushing yards and a win.  Fast forward to week 12.  The Raiders have Josh Jacobs, a terrific and underutilized RB.  What are the bets we see far more of him this week? Seattle can also run the ball and the Raiders' run defense isn't that much better than the Seahawks, but both these teams are pass-happy and normally rely on their strength in the air.   Carr and Smith are both quality QBs with very similar stats.  Smith is more accurate, Carr puts up a few more yards, and neither turns the ball over very often.  Both have quality targets.
The Seahawks, however, defend the pass much better than the Raiders.  Las Vegas has given up an average passer rating of 106 this season, and is worst in the league in sacks with 13.  The Seahawks play a harder defensive game, have double the sacks and are very tough in takeaways.
The Seahawks are a well coached team, and had their bye week to sort out their defensive issues. Geno Smith will have more time than usual to operate.  Week 12 is an important step for their play-off hopes.  Considering their 3-7 opponent, a win is a must.  I expect Seattle's defense to show up on Sunday and wear down the Raiders over the course of the game.  Take Seattle to win and cover.

The Falcons are very much a rush-first offense, with the second fewest passing plays in the NFL, and facing a loss to injury of their top Tight End this week.  The lack of a pass attack will be a huge issue when facing the Commanders on Sunday, as Washington's surging defense has sliced and diced the run, allowing an average of just 57 yards in their last three games.  In Fact the entire Commanders defense has taken off, showing significant improvement in all areas against not insignificant opposition.  The same cannot be said for the Falcons' defense who are bottom five in points and yards allowed.
Other than the run game the Mariota-lead Falcons are pretty limited.  They have put up points in their last 4 games, but haven't faced an defense ranked higher than 25th in four games.  Mariota is sacked a lot considering how seldom he throws the ball, but hasn't given the ball up often.  Heinicke has the Commanders offense charged up, but it is more as a game manager.  The Commanders' recent success relies on many short rush attempts, playing a very successful and time-eating style.  The Commanders are 1st in time of possession; the Falcons are 26th.  Both Defenses had success pressuring the quarterback last week, but for the Commanders that success is typical, with nearly double the passer pressures and Qb hits of the Falcons.
I've been riding the Commanders lately and am confident of further success this week. No one has been better at limiting points lately, and they will have their scoring opportunities vs. the Falcons' weak D.  Take the Commanders to win and cover.

The Buccaneers actually ran the ball consistently against the Seahawks and came away with a solid result, 161 yards rushing, a huge spike in their lousy time of possession stats, their best 3rd down conversion figures of the year, not to mention a victory. Let us hope that they spent the bye week refining their running game, taking some of the load off their aging QB.  The Browns' defense struggles in most categories, including against the run, allowing 135 yards average in their L3 games and a very high 171 yards in Week 11. Add on 5.3 yards allowed per rush attempt in recent games.  They haven't been much better against the pass, allowing a 111 average passer rating  as well as 27 points against in their last 3 games.
On offense, the Browns moved away from their potent run game last week, running on just 38% of their plays, but we can expect to see more of Chubb and Hunt this week.  Tampa's defense is solid against the run.  It was likely a one-off, but they limited Seattle to just 39 rush yards in their last game. This is likely Browns' QB Brissett's final game.  He has had 2 solid performances in his last two weeks, culminating in a 116 passer rating.  The BucS' defense is tough on passers, limiting yards and yards per attempt.  They are also pretty formidable in passer pressure,and 3rd in sack %.
Can the Buccaneers turn their season around?  Week 12 would be a very good time to start.  The Browns defense gives up 27 points on average per game.  Tampa's offense is showing signs of life recently, giving them something to build on. Look for a more balanced attack from the Buccaneers, more of their stout defense, and enough Brady-driven offense to win and cover.  It really is now or "not this season" for Tampa Bay.

Just pride on the line here as neither team is heading to the Mountain West Championship Game and both are already bowl eligible.

But Air Force will be motivated. Dating back to 2010, the Flyboys have lost nine straight times to San Diego State and are 2-7 ATS in those games. Most of the recent encounters have been close, however. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less. 

San Diego State’s offense has been reborn since a change at QB. However, Jalen Mayden has committed more turnover worthy plays than he has big time throws. Let’s also be honest. Those last two games, which saw the Aztecs score a combined 77 points, were against San Jose State and New Mexico.

Over their past five games, the Air Force defense has allowed just 7, 19, 7, 3 and 12 points. That’s only 48 points total or less than 10.0 per game. On the offensive side, the triple option is the last thing San Diego State wants to see this late in the season, playing a sixth straight game with nothing on the line.

Look for the AFA offense to control the ball in this one and the Falcons to end their long losing streak to SDSU. 8*

Both Notre Dame and USC have gone Over the total in their last five games. But I will be bucking that trend here with my biggest CFB total of the season.

Notre Dame has something that USC hasn’t seen much of this season, that being a good defense. The Fighting Irish are top 30 in scoring, holding opponents to only 20.3 points/contests. Also, no opponent has been able to reach 400 total yards against them. Not even Ohio State. Unlike UCLA, ND has an elite secondary. 

Notre Dame’s offense will also be able to control the football, thanks to the rushing attack. USC is very bad at stopping the run. One of the easiest ways to slow down the Trojans’ offense is to simply keep them off the field. I think the Fighting Irish will be able to do just that.

USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2016. In the last four meetings, they have been held to 16, 27, 17 and 14 points. As for the USC defense, Notre Dame does not have the kind of passing attack most teams in the Pac 12 do. The Trojans also excel at taking the ball away (#1 in FBS). 

Only two ND opponents have been able to score more than 26 points all season.  The previous high O/U line this season for them was 58.5 vs. Ohio State. That game easily stayed Under. This is only the fifth ND game all year with a total higher than 48.5.  Play the Under. 10*

Coastal Carolina is missing QB Grayson McCall and has the Sun Belt Championship on deck. So that is why the Chanticleers come in as two-touchdown underdogs at James Madison Saturday.

In its first season at the FBS level, JMU was not even eligible to win the Sun Belt nor go bowling. But that hasn’t stopped the Dukes from turning in a highly impressive 7-3 SU campaign and even earning a Top 25 ranking at one point. The only losses came to Louisville, Marshall and Georgia Southern, all in a row. QB Centeio missed the Marshall game due to injury and the offense turned it over five times while against Ga Southern, the Dukes had a 675-590 edge in total yards.

I fully expect JMU to treat this as their “bowl game.” 

The Dukes’ defense is allowing just 82 rush yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. They allow only 18.6 points/game at home. With a backup QB, Coastal Carolina is really going to struggle to move the ball here. The backup QB (Jarrett Guest) is a huge dropoff from McCall and attempted only 14 passes against Southern Miss. 

Even if McCall were playing Saturday, I’d have the home team favored by a decent amount. They will want to show everyone just who the best team in the Sun Belt “really” is. Lay the points. 10* 

Now seems like a good time to fade Florida State, who has won and covered four straight. But this 4-0 SU/ATS streak has come against Georgia Tech (terrible team), Miami (also terrible), Syracuse (sinking fast) and Louisiana (bad). 

This just seems like a big number to lay in a rivalry game, especially since Florida should come in angry after outgaining Vanderbilt 445-283 last week, but losing on the scoreboard 31-24. The Gators previous four losses had all been to ranked teams and only one (Georgia) was by more than 10 points.

A mounting injury list is a tad bit worrisome for Billy Napier. It includes the Gators’ top two receivers. But I still say they stay within the number here. Look for a lot more designed runs for QB Anthony Richardson this week. Those were notably absent from last week’s playcalling, at least in the first half. By the way, Florida outgained Vandy 7.0 to 4.6 on a per play basis.

The SEC is a much stronger league than the ACC obviously and that’s another reason why FSU probably shouldn’t be favored by this many. Feels like it’s the top of the market on them.

FSU has not beaten Florida since 2017. The Gators are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season, tied with Ole Miss for the best such mark among SEC schools. Equally as impressive is that UF has also covered each of its last three times off a SU loss. Take the points. 10* 

The winner of this game will finish first in the AAC and host next week’s Conference Championship Game (likely against UCF). This is a spot Cincinnati is pretty familiar with, Tulane not so much. But I expect the Green Wave to come in and get the job done Friday.

Both teams are 9-2 straight up. But from a pointspread perspective, it is clear who has been better. Tulane is 9-2 ATS while Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS.

The Bearcats do have a 32-game win streak here at historic Nippert Stadium that they can lean on. But they are nowhere close to the team that made the College Football Playoff a year ago. Prior to last week’s 23-3 win over hapless Temple, where the Bearcats were +4 in turnovers, they had gone six straight games without covering. That includes narrow wins over East Carolina, SMU and USF that were by a total of 10 points.

Two weeks ago, Tulane lost 38-31 at home to UCF. But that is the only blemish on the Green Wave’s resume over the last two months. They bounced back in a major way from that UCF loss, crushing SMU 59-24 last Thursday. This is a team that went to Kansas State and won back in September! 

Cincy QB Ben Bryant is dealing with a foot injury and may not be able to go here. That seems pretty significant. Even if Bryant can go, I still expect Tulane to win handily. The Green Wave struggled with a mobile QB (Plumlee) vs. UCF. Cincy doesn’t have that element. 10*

Let’s go with the Under in the Egg Bowl. The number has come down, but I’m still seeing value north of 60 points. Eight of the last nine Egg Bowls, including the last five, have all stayed Under.

Those last five editions of this rivalry have all seen fewer than 60 combined points scored.

There’s disarray in Oxford right now with Lane Kiffin’s future seemingly in doubt. Maybe he stays? Maybe he goes? Regardless, Ole Miss is 1-3 its last four games and through three quarters last week had just six points on the board.

This Mississippi State offense can also run hot and cold. On the road, it’s been mostly the latter as they average just 19.5 points and all four games have gone Under.

In a rivalry like this, there won’t be a ton of points scored. 10*

The Giants, who have lost badly in 2 of 3 games, now face the home team Dallas Cowboys, hot off a huge blow-out of the Vikings.  The Cowboys can dominate on offense and defense, but struggle against running backs and rushing QBs on defense.  It is no secret; the Packers and Bears ran the ball with success, but it took Rodgers' best game of the season, and some explosive passing plays, to bounce back and win.  The Giants have a strong running back in Barkley and Jones at QB is another rush option, but as far as the passing game goes, Jones is hardly Rodgers at his best.  The Packers were top 10 in passer protection while the Giants are 27th in sacks. Jones is 28th is pass yards, 25th in Yds/completion, and had a QB rating in the 70's last week.  Not to mention WR injury issues this week. Or that they are up against the league's top pass rushing team.
The Giants have recent struggles of their own on defense.  They struggled in red zone defense last week, are 25th in rush yards allowed, 31st in rush points allowed, and 21st in passer pressure.  They gave up 31 points to a Lions team that managed just 6 against the Cowboys, and they have serious injuries in their secondary.
All of this at a time when the Cowboys offense is on fire, averaging 440 yards of offense and roughly 40 points in their last 3 games.  Prescott is finally fully recovered from injury, playing behind the best O-line in the league, and sporting a 115 Passer rating in his last three games.  They have had far more rushing yards and points than the Giants lately.
NY has been able to hold on to the ball and slow the game down this season, however the Cowboys had a  huge 62% possession rate last week, and I expect them to control the game again on Thursday.  The spread is 10 points at the moment, but both the Seahawks and Lions won by bigger margins in the past three weeks.  A healthy Cowboys team at home and on National TV can be a handful.  Take the Cowboys to win and cover against a depleted Giants team.

Miami and Ball State are both looking to get bowl eligible tonight. Both are 5-6 and have struggled down the stretch. But Miami is off a win and (in my opinion) the team more likely to overcome a potential absence on Tuesday. Plus they are at home. 

Ball State lost RB Carson Steele to a concussion last week vs. Ohio. Steele leads the MAC in rushing yards (1376) and is ninth nationally. He has accounted for nearly one-third of Ball State’s total yardage this season. He’d be a huge absence for this offense. But even if he can go, Steele would be facing the MAC’s #1 rush defense. 

Miami won last week despite not having QB Brett Gabbert. Backup Aveon Smith accounted for three touchdowns (two rushing) against Northern Illinois and that was not the first time this season that the RedHawks prevailed with Smith under center. I’m far more confident in the Miami offense without Gabbert than I am Ball State without Steele

I think that the Miami defense will be the difference in this one. Over the last eight games, the RedHawks have allowed 24 points or less seven times. The lone exception was against Ohio, the top team in the MAC right now.

So lay the short number with the home team, who is 15-7 ATS its last 22 games in Oxford. 10*

Coming into MNF It is now the Cardinals who have injury issues, with key players out, and Hopkins and Murray both questionable with hamstring problems.  McCoy filled in well last week, but the Cardinals face one of the leagues' top defenses in the 49ers. Even after their win last week, Arizona is giving up 27 points on average in their last three games.  That 49er defense is hard to play against in all categories. Nobody runs successfully against them and with the Cardinals running less and less in recent games, SF can key on the Arizona pass attack, which has not been particularly dynamic this year, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion.  In spite of the Cardinals' short pass game, Murray/McCoy have been sacked at close to 4 times a game in recent action, a situation made worse this week by San Francisco's third-ranked (not third rate) passer pressure rating.
Given all of the 49ers' fine run options, it is surprising that they don't have more yards and points to show for it.  This could be the game when Mitchell and Samuel and McCaffrey all click and really impress.  Garoppolo and the 49ers' pass attack has some fine targets and has impressed lately.  They are now top ten in passing yards, with just a single sack last week and a very sharp 105 passer rating in their last three games.
On paper, the 49ers should blow the Cardinals right out of Mexico City.  They are giving up 8 points, an ugly number, but doing the math, I expect them to win and cover.  Look for a 49ers' breakout on offense, while the defense limits a lackluster and compromised Cardinals squad.

The 49ers are in Mexico City at a a point in the season where all systems are go.  They are healthier, have a dominant run attack, and very tough pass offense lately.  They face a Cardinals team who have grown one dimensional on offense, and with possible injuries to key players this week.  The Cardinals don't run the ball much, relying on a very short yardage pass attack.  While they beat the Rams last week, their passing game hasn't been especially successful this season, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion. I expect the 49ers to key on the Arizona passing game, and rough up who ever plays at QB.  The SF defense is tough in all categories, and the 49ers' offense are very strong in holding on to the football with very good time of possession and third down conversion stats. The 49ers don't normally put up huge point totals, but will be very successful at limiting the Cardinals' chances today.  Take this game to go under.

The Cowboys are on the road again, this time in a show-down with a red-hot Vikings team.  A pass-first team, the Vikings have a very successful rush offense considering they only run the ball a third of the time.  Add some great targets for Cousins, Jefferson being the standout, and you have a formidable offense.  The Cowboys have allowed 28 and 29 points in their last two weeks and 26 against the Eagles earlier.  They have been done in by their inability to handle the run, but their passer rating has climbed to 114/L3 games, in spite of leading the league in passer pressures.  The Vikings have a fine running back in Cook, who overachieves considering his usage.  I expect the Vikings, like the Packers, to run far more than usual on Sunday.
There are issues with the Vikings defense as well.  They struggle to defend in the red zone, and are  a miserable 29th in yards and passing yards allowed, with a whopping 486/311 yards against last week.  Prescott has much to atone for after 2 picks last week, but the Cowboys' pass offense has improved since his return.  The Cowboys are also 8th in rushing yards and improving, and may have both RBs in action this week.  The Vikings gave up 175 yards rushing last week, along with their pass defense  woes. This game is too close to pick an outright winner, but I am confident in the total. Sunday's match-up will not be a defensive gem.  Take the total to go over.

The Steelers are off a win, have TJ Watt back, and are playing at home, but face a very tough Bengals team this week. Joe Burrow is the 2nd best quarterback in the game, and has only improved lately, completing 77 % of his passes in his last three games, with a passer rating of 117. The Bengals’ O-line has improved this season. Burrows was sacked just twice in his last game, and the Bengals’ sacked % is lower than Sunday’s opposition’s numbers. Burrow seems impervious to sacks anyway and in spite of the hits he has taken, he doesn’t turn over the ball very often. Joe Mixon ran for huge yards in his last game, but the Bengals are usually very much a pass-first offense, a big advantage vs the Steelers’ defense. Pittsburgh shut down the Saints’ running game and are 6th in rush yards allowed, but they are not as tough against the pass. They are thirtieth for the season, though improving, in pass yards allowed and have managed only to hold QBs to a to- healthy 99 passer rating in their last three games.

The Bengals defense is reasonably balanced, underrated and improving in many areas lately including rush yards allowed and rush yards/attempt. They have a very good pass defense in spite of low passer pressure figures and are solid in takeaways. Let’s not forget who they are facing this week. Harris had a solid game on the ground and Picket ran for 50+ yards and managed not to throw a pick, but we are talking a 73 passer rating over the last three weeks and a 31st points-scored ranking this season. As good as he is, TJ Watt won’t be playing on the Steelers’ offense. Take the Bengals to win and cover.

The Commanders, on a short week after a massive victory against the Eagles, now face a struggling Texans team at home.  Washington’s defense has taken a step forward lately and is very strong vs. the run.  Their pass defense is still their weakness but they face Mills this week, who has struggled in his 2nd year.  The Texans’ pass defense had been their strong point, but has struggled lately, allowing a passer rating of 119 over their last 3 weeks.
The Commanders won’t be passing much anyway.   Washington hangs on to the ball better than any other team.  We saw their RB dual threat run the ball in roughly three yard increments on 60% of their offensive plays last week, with a remarkable time of possession of 67% against the top team in the league.  Expect a similar tactic against the Texans in Week 11.  Houston is worst in the league in rush yards allowed, and near bottom dwellers in yards/attempt and total yards allowed.  Opposing offenses run on the Texans on 65% of their plays this season to date, and it could be even more on Sunday.
The Texans have a very good rookie RB in Pierce but he really is their only option for rushing yards.  They are poor in converting on 3rd downs, and rarely put up any points on the ground.  The Commanders are 12th rushing yards allowed and improving, and give up very few rush TDs.  Mills is off one of his better games, but still has a very average rating of 76 in his last 3 games.
Washington has covered 4 straight times as a favorite.  I expect them to eat up both the Texans and the clock on Sunday, winning and covering on the road.

UNLV is 4-6. That means they must win their last two games to go bowling for the first time since 2013. Facing Hawaii here and then hosting Nevada next week, the odds are in the Rebels’ favor. But can they cover a double digit spread on the road? I say “yes!”

Doug Brumfield is back at QB for UNLV.  This is key. The team is 4-1 when he got hurt on 10/7 vs. San Jose State. They haven’t won since (five straight losses). But they are 2-0 ATS since Brumfield returned, losing a pair of one possession games to San Diego State and Fresno State.

Now it took a late FG for the Rebels to cover last week. They’ll hope to avoid being on the wrong side of such a scenario here. I think they’re fine. Hawaii, even against a weak schedule, is just 2-9 and losing by an average of 17 points/game.

Defensively, Hawaii is atrocious, whether you’re taking against the run or the pass. Brumfield and this UNLV offense should have its way.

Despite the perception of there being some sort of advantage on the island, Hawaii has the second worst home ATS record in the country over the last decade. This game means nothing to the Warriors, who have lost four straight and given up 96 points the last two weeks.

This is a lookahead spot for Ohio State, who is laying four touchdowns with Michigan on deck. I know it’s hard to take a Maryland team you know won’t win, but I make this spread a full field goal lower.

The reason this spread is so large is because Maryland has really struggled the last two weeks, losing 23-10 to Wisconsin and 30-0 to Penn State. It’s now five straight ATS losses for the Terrapins and QB Tagovailoa hasn’t looked right.

But I’m willing to bet Tagovailoa and the Maryland offense can make enough plays this week to stay within a very generous number. The QB had been having a good season. His completion percentage is still at 68.3% with 2152 yards.

Over the last 12 years, Ohio State has covered only twice the week before facing Michigan.

The Buckeyes also just really haven’t faced anyone this season. Their two toughest games, Notre Dame and Penn State, saw them down at halftime. Not saying Maryland will ever be out in front in this game, but they’ll stay close enough. 10*

So here’s a pointspread for you. Army, who is 3-6, is laying two scores to a 6-5 UConn team that has covered seven in a row. If that doesn’t set off “alarm bells” in your head, not much will.

This is a classic letdown spot for a UConn team - that against all odds - is now bowl eligible. That’s something NO ONE expected at the start of the season. The Huskies just stunned a ranked Liberty team 36-33 as a two touchdown home dog for their biggest win in YEARS. I can’t see them coming out with the same intensity for this regular season finale.

Army has scored only 16 points the last two weeks while losing to Air Force and Troy. But on the bright side, the defense surrendered only 23 total points in those two games. The Cadets have allowed 17 or less three of the last four games.

If you’re worried about laying points, look back to the last time that Army was favored. That was four weeks ago against LA Monroe here in West Point. They won 48-24.

UConn was -166 in total yards last week and has gotten two wins against backup QBs this season. The other two wins were against UMass (worst FBS team) and Central Connecticut State (FCS team). Trust me - you’re going to want to LAY the points here. 10*

These are two of the bottom feeders in the AAC. In fact, USF is at the very bottom with an 0-6 record in conference play and 1-9 overall. Last week, they made a coaching change, firing Jeff Scott after a pretty awful run. I thought the Bulls had a somewhat inspired effort for interim Daniel Da Prato against SMU even though they didn’t cover the spread.

They would have covered if not for going for two (down 18). The Bulls are now 3-7 ATS, which is not good, but that’s the same record Tulsa has at the betting window. And USF obviously isn’t the team laying two touchdowns here.

USF was tied with SMU at the half 17-17 last Saturday. Like I said earlier, that’s encouraging as a coaching change typically leads to a short-term spark. The thing with Tulsa is that I don’t see where any spark comes from. They can’t get bowl eligible. They are 1-4 ATS as a favorite in 2022. 

The Golden Hurricane have not gotten much going offensively the last two games. Part of that is an injury to QB Davis Brin, who returned only to leave again last week. The Tulsa offense couldn’t even gain 200 yards against Memphis. 

This is a hold your nose situation, but I just don’t think Tulsa should be laying this many points to ANYBODY at this point of the season. The Golden Hurricane are 0-5 ATS their last five games with four double digit losses. 8*

We could see a couple of run-first offenses when the Packers meet the Titans on TNF, based on the Packers’ success against the Cowboys. Henry and the Titans are formidable on the ground, and while Henry was limited against the Broncos last week, he’ll have and easier time rushing against the Packers’ sub-par run defense this week. That may not be the case for the Packers’ fine RB duo, Dillon and Jones. The Titans have one of the league’s top run defenses and are very tough in 3rd down conversions. We’ve seen a general improvement in the Titans’ defense lately; even the pass defense has improved, limiting opposing passers to a 74 rating in the last three weeks. The Titans QB pressure stats are among the best in the league, with 103 pressures, 29 sacks and 40 knock-downs. They are tough in points allowed, 3rd down conversions, and take-aways as well, making for a difficult evening for Rodgers on Thursday.

The Packers defense, as mentioned, is weak against the run, but tough for the season, though regressing lately, in the air. Their passer pressure stats are below average, but are up against a Titans O-line that has struggled to protect Tannehill, last week being the exception.

Rodgers had his best game of the season last week, but one game does not a season make. He and the Packers’ offense has struggled with picks and fumbles this season. The Packers successfully exploited the Cowboys’ poor run defense last week. Rogers actually threw less than average, although more successfully. He is still banged up with an injured thumb on his throwing hand.

I like Henry to bounce back with a big game on a chilly Thursday night. Tannehill is also off his best game of the season, and is an underestimated offense manager. Take the visiting team Titans to cover, although a win would not surprise me.

This is a big game for Tulane. Not only is it their home finale, being played in front of a national TV audience no less, but the Green Wave are off a tough 38-31 loss here to UCF last week. To get a shot at revenge (at UCF) and a place in the AAC Champ Game, Tulane is going to have to win the last two games. I like their chances tonight and will be laying the short number.

Revenge must also be considered when handicapping this matchup. Tulane has lost to SMU seven straight times, but four of the last six losses have been by four points or less. It was a blowout in the Metroplex last season, but that was a much worse Tulane team (that finished 2-10 SU). 

This is Willie Fritz’s best team yet, one that is ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings. It was an unusually poor defensive effort that cost the Green Wave last week, not to mention falling behind 10-0 just four minutes into the game did not help. I expect a better effort on the defensive side of the ball here, from a group that is still only allowing 18.7 points/game at home. I think this Tulane defense can also limit explosive plays from Tanner Mordecai and the SMU offense.

SMU has won three in a row straight up and covered the number in four straight. But two of those three SU wins came against the bottom-feeders of the AAC (Tulsa, USF). The Mustangs’ defense is a liability coming into this matchup as it has given up 32.6 points/game for the season and 40.0 the L3 weeks. 

Even with the loss last week, Tulane has an excellent home record under Fritz, including 4-1 SU/ATS in finales. Overall, they are 26-10 ATS L36 home games. Two road games in six days is not a great spot for SMU, who was tied at the half last week vs. USF. 10* 

Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). 

Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here

The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). 

The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. 

Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* 

The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. 

Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns.

Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. 

Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. 

Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10*

The Commanders were in tough against the Vikings last week and won their three previous games but they are on the road against a team that is consistently good in just about every area on Monday.  Not to mention healthier and better rested.  The Eagles run defense is their weak point, and the Commanders do have their 2 player run attack performing well, but the Commanders don't put up many rush points. The Commanders' pass attack is very pedestrian, and will face a pass defense that is formidable in takeaways, passer rating, sacks, etc, etc.  I really don't see the Commanders scoring a ton of points on Monday. Wentz is probably very lucky to be out of this one.
Can Washington slow down the Philadelphia offense?  They've been tough against the run recently, but haven't faced any really stiff rush competition in a few weeks.  They are poor against the pass, just 27th in average passer rating, and aren't particularly tough to play against.
The Eagles have a variety of looks on offense, and can switch on the fly if something isn't working.  Hurts hasn't run as much with Sanders rushing as well as he has, but the QB can be a force on the ground and in the air. We've seen some shocking results so far in Week Ten, but I think this game will likely go as expected. The Eagles' first half vs. the Texans was a surprise last week, especially with Pierce running so effectively.  I expect an adjustment from the Eagles, and a huge effort under the lights of MNF against a very beatable Commanders' team. Take the Eagles to win and cover that big number in prime time.

The Cowboys come into their road game with the Packers healthy, rested and on a two game win streak, none of which can be said of the Packers.  On offense, they have seen a huge improvement since the return of Prescott, plus games against a couple of lesser lights.  One of those 'lesser lights' just beat up on Green Bay last week.  There is almost no area where the Packers can match the Cowboys offense over their last three games.  Prescott has bounced back from injury well, and the run game has taken off in recent weeks.
The Packers are off an historically poor performance, with Rodgers throwing 3 picks and playing to a passer rating in the 50's.  This against one of the worst defenses in the league.  On defense, it is something of a different story.  The Cowboys allowing 29 points and 240 rush yards to the Bears is concerning.  The Cowboys can be run on, but that hasn't translated into points to date.  The Packers could run more, with solid running backs in Dillon and Jones (limited), but haven't so far and are a poor 30th in the league in rush points scored.  Then there is the Cowboys' passer pressure to consider.  Rogers is generally well protected, but that may change on Sunday.  Dallas averages 4 sacks a game and is first in QB pressure, with Green Bay well down the list. The Cowboys are also very good in takeaways, and Rodgers, as we saw last week, is not immmune to throwing the ball away.
The Packers are a much injured team this week.  I had hopes for the Packers' offense to show up last week, but won't be holding my breath on Sunday Look for the Cowboys to win and cover in this touted grudge match.

The Broncos managed 21 points in their last game and are off a bye in week 9 but they face a tough run-crazy Titans squad just minutes away from beating the Chiefs last week.  The Broncos offense has been a disappointment but the defense has been spot-on this year.  They are tough to score on and defend well in the red zone, but are best against the pass, which is definitely secondary in the Titans' plans. Note that the Broncos also lost their top pass rusher, traded away at the deadline.   The Broncos can be run on, at 21st and 27th in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt, but they are not as easy to score rush points on. Both of these teams' defenses are about equally hard on passers,while neither team is particularly good at protecting their own QB.
The Titans defense is especially strong on third down and has allowed even less points than the Broncos lately.  They are very tough against the rush, limiting both points and yards.  They do give up plenty of passing yards, although the whopping 420+ against the Chiefs was hardly typical.
The Titans run the ball more than just about anyone, and their passer stats suffer accordingly, both in yards and passer rating.  The loss of Tannehill was a large but not insurmountable blow, but he is expected back this week.  Tannehill is an excellent and underestimated offense manager, who passes as needed without too many mistakes. With rookie Malek behind center, we saw passer yards and effectiveness drop to a low of 57 yards and with a miserable 49 passer rating.  It didn't affect Henry much. Everyone knew he would run and just couldn't stop him.
With an average of just 15 points a game, the Broncos haven't shown much in the way of pass or run offense.  Wilson is 29th in passer yards and passer rating, and has been sacked 3 times a game on average. Wilson hadn't settled into the Broncos offense before their bye although his last game was an improvement.  The Titans just experienced Mahomes at his finest, and still weathered the storm.  I will believe in the Broncos' improved offense when I see it.
With the spread less than a field goal, I like the Titans' chances on Sunday.Tennessee bypasses the best part of the Broncos' defense, and should hold up well against the offense.  Tannehill returning would be a huge bonus. Take the Titans to win and cover.

The Giants will be running fools on Sunday at home to the Texans, partly because that is what their offense does best. The Barkley/ Jones duo leads the Giants to 4th best in the league in rushing yards.  It is also what the Texans' defense does worst. They are 32nd in rush yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt among other unflattering stats.  The Texans will also run. Their rookie RB Pierce was  terrific in his last game a huge bounce-back from week 8, but he is a beaten up this week. The Texans pass game has struggled this season; 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards/completion and an 80 passer rating for the season.  Mills throws to may picks compared to touchdowns.  Both teams are solid in passer pressures, esp the Texans.
The Giants offense is very tough to get off the field at the best of times but should be able to move the ball successfully on the ground against the Texans.  Their defense is tough in the red zone and limits 3rd down conversions.  Both these teams struggle to put up points at the best of times.  Sunday could be a very slow march of a game.  Take the total to go under.

It will be Barkley vs Pierce, two very good RBs looking to lead a pair of run-first offenses when the Texans take on the Giants in New York.  Pierce is banged up, but likely to play and off a very impressive rebound game against the Eagles.   Barkley is healthy and well rested after a bye week, and playing against the worst run defense in the league.  The Texans are 32nd in rush yards allowed and very poor in all other categories, and of course, teams routinely run against them most of the time.  In this case it will Barkley and QB Jones, a terrific one-two punch, 4th in the league in rushing yards.  How will Pierce fare?  The Giants rush defense give up plenty of yards, but not points.  The New York defense overall is very good in the red zone, and in limiting 3rd down conversions.  The pass defense is average in yards, and limits passers to an 82 rating lately.  The Giants blitz a lot, but it is the Texans who are the more successful pressure-ers. Opposing passers have looked good lately with a 108 rating in the last 3 Texans' games.
Houston passer Mills has struggled in his second season, with a very average passer rating and too many picks.  Jones, aside from his running abilities, has been effective on a smaller scale, and hangs on to the ball. I think the Giants running game will win out on Sunday.  The Giants don't give up the ball easily, and the Texans are 30th in time of possession.  We'll see a lot of the Giants on the field, while scoring enough points to win and cover.

These two SEC programs are in very different places right now. Auburn just made a coaching change and certainly seems to be reinvigorated by interim boss Carnell “Cadillac” Williams. Texas A&M was supposed to contend for a national title this year. They are now 3-6 and look to be playing out the string.

Now Auburn shares that same 3-6 record. But they showed me something by coming back from an early three touchdown deficit to force overtime last Saturday in Starkville. Keep in mind Williams was on a short week and wasn’t even named coach until Monday. It’s amazing his team got to overtime against a team like Mississippi State.

The Tigers can put up points. They’ve averaged more than 31 the L3 games. Texas A&M can’t do anything offensively. They’ve been better recently, but have used three different quarterbacks and have yet to score more than 28 points in any game.

The A&M roster is severely depleted right now due to injuries and suspensions. This is the program’s first five-game losing streak since 1980. I am just not sure how much they care. Auburn is also on a five-game slide, but Williams seems to have them reinvigorated and being at home this week, it’s looking like “War Eagle.”

Auburn has covered seven of the last eight times they’ve been home chalk of 3.5 points or less. 10*

Ok. So UAB didn’t work out last week. But now QB Dylan Hopkins is set to return and I love the Blazers in this spot hosting North Texas.

With North Texas on a 6-0 ATS win streak, they have become overvalued. Conversely, UAB is on a 0-4 ATS losing skid and is approaching peak value. Before last week’s 2OT loss to UTSA, the Blazers were 11-0 ATS at home off a loss.

UAB had the 553-494 edge in total yards vs. UTSA. The return of Hopkins just makes the offense even more dynamic. 

With LSU on deck, UAB MUST win this game to have a shot at bowl eligibility. North Texas already has its six wins, most of them coming against bad teams.

Key here will be UAB’s ability to run the ball. On the road, North Texas is giving up 214 rush yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. 10*

Coming off a giant win over Clemson, this looks to be a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame, who is back in the CFP Top 25. While the Fighting Irish are 9-1 SU the L10 games vs. Navy, they are just 5-5 ATS. 

A service academy getting this many points is typically an attractive option as they will look to control the clock and thus it’s difficult for the favorite to build any kind of margin. The numbers bear this out as Army, Navy & Air Force are a combined 40-22-2 ATS when getting 14 or more points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the total for this game is only 42. So getting more than two touchdowns feels like a real nice luxury to have. 

Yes, the Irish did just beat Clemson by three touchdowns. But as a double digit favorite, Marcus Freeman’s team is 0-4 ATS with outright losses to both Marshall and Stanford. They also failed to cover against UNLV and Cal.

By a variety of metrics, Navy’s defense is pretty strong against the run. Those metrics include yards per rush, line yards and stuff rate. Conversely, ND’s defense is a lot weaker against the run than the pass. We know what Navy will look to do on offense here. 

Notre Dame will almost certainly win this game. But look for it to be closer than the experts think. 10* 

East Carolina will come into historic Nippert Stadium (where Cincinnati has won 31 straight) on a three-game win streak and off a bye. Last time out they snapped a four-game Friday night losing streak with a 27-24 upset of BYU. It was the Pirates’ second straight win as a dog, having previously upended UCF 34-13 as a six-point home dog. 

Now ECU looks for its first win at Cincy since 2001. They’ve lost 10 of 11 overall to the Bearcats including four straight. It was a 35-13 final last year in Greenville. But that was of course to a Cincinnati team that went on to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff.

This year has seen the Bearcats have real problems covering the spread. They are just 1-5-1 ATS the last seven games after failing to cover Saturday vs. Navy. They came in as 18.5-point favorites but won just 20-10. 

The Bearcats’ three games prior to that were all decided by four points or less. One of those saw them favored by 27 at home vs. a terrible South Florida team. Due to being one of the most penalized teams in the country, it’s been very difficult for Cincy to win by any kind of margin this year.

At this point of the season, I simply believe that East Carolina is the better football team here. They are certainly more than capable of ending Cincy’s long home win streak. QB Holton Ahlers has completed over 70 percent of his pass attempts for 2,632 yards. 

It could be very much a run-centric game when the Falcons meet the Panthers on Thursday.  The Falcons run more than just about anyone, and now have Patterson back, plus an up-and-comer in Allgeier, plus Huntley, and not to mention Mariota. Rain and wind are in the forecast, and the Panthers have a poor 28th rated rush defense.
The Panthers moved the ball effectively the last time they faced the Falcons, and really, the Falcons' pass defense can make any QB look good, even PJ Walker. Walker may have succeeded in the Falcons game, but his overall stats are not good, and he did nothing before being pulled in week 9.  One thing about Mariota is he doesn't turn the ball over much.  He will face more pressure than Walker; the Falcons REALLY don't pressure quarterbacks with any success.
With all of the turmoil around the Panthers at the moment, it is bound to show up on the field.  There are also too many areas where the Panthers have no ability;  they are last in the league in third down conversions, possession time, pass completion rate, and 31st in passer rating. The Falcons' defense allows a ton of yards, and as noted, struggle against the pass, but last week's game showed some improvement in both areas. If it comes down to field goals, which is not unlikely, Atlanta has a solid edge.  The Falcons have the opportunity to make it back to .500 again.  It may not be pretty considering the weather conditions, but I believe the Falcons have it in them to win and cover on Thursday.

It has been a disappointing season for Louisiana, who was 13-1 in 2021. It’s not like a dropoff wasn’t expected. Billy Napier hightailed it for Florida and they had to replace their QB and four starters along the offensive line. But a 4-5 SU record through nine games is certainly NOT what the Ragin Cajuns were expecting.

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has already exceeded last year’s win total (3) and now has its eyes on bowl eligibility for first year head coach Clay Helton. There has been a radical transformation on offense with Helton jettisoning the triple option for an “Air Raid” and the result has been 36.2 points/game. 

Both teams are coming off losses, though Louisiana is in worse shape having dropped five of seven overall. Georgia Southern looked to have South Alabama beat (were up 21-7 in the first quarter) but gave up two touchdowns in the fourth to lose 38-31. They only trailed for the final 5:50 of the game. 

Louisiana also fell apart late in last week’s loss, getting outscored 16-0 by Troy in the fourth quarter to lose 23-17.

So we’ve got two teams off disappointing losses, but Georgia Southern is clearly more enthusiastic about where it’s at right now. I’m taking the points here as I think the Louisiana defense is going to struggle at slowing down the Eagles’ offense. Except for one game vs. Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns have not gone over 24 points since September. Take the points. 10*

Buffalo had a five game win streak (SU and ATS) snapped last week in Athens as they fell to Ohio 45-24 as a 2.5-point road favorite. While it was a nice run, the Bulls are a team that has had some good luck go their way, whether you’re opposing quarterbacks being out or turnovers. 

Central Michigan picked up a much needed win last week, beating Northern Illinois 35-22 as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Chippewas still have a chance to go bowling, but that would require winning out. They must get better at protecting the football though. Each of the last two games have seen CMU turn it over four times.

I believe the home team will be able to control the trenches in this game. RB Lew Nicholls III returned last week but it was actually backup QB Jase Bauer that led the way with 109 yards rushing. On the defensive side, CMU has been one of the best teams at stopping the run. Buffalo’s defense is 89th nationally in yards allowed.

Not only did Central Michigan’s offensive line pave the way for 245 rushing yards last week against Northern Illinois, but they also did not give up a single sack. 

CMU is 5-0 ATS the last five times it has been off a game with 200-plus yards rushing. Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS off its previous nine SU losses. 10* 

Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.

Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight. 

Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.

Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo.

The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10*

The last two games for Toledo have seen wild comebacks, one go their way and one not go their way. Three Saturdays ago, they were up 27-10 on Buffalo heading into the fourth quarter. They ended up losing that game 34-27 due to six turnovers. The following week, with a backup QB, they came from behind to defeat Eastern Michigan 27-24. 

There is uncertainty over who is going to be the starting QB for the Rockets tonight. Dequan Finn, who got injured at the end of the Buffalo game and is in the running for MAC Offensive Player of the Year, is questionable. Backup Tucker Gleason threw three touchdowns last week vs. EMU. 

Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Toledo is clearly capable of putting points on the board. But tonight they run into a Ball State defense that has held four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Cardinals picked up a huge 27-20 win last Tuesday at Kent State as seven-point underdogs. That sets this game up as likely to decide who represents the MAC West in the Conference Championship.

Ball State is 3-2 in conference play, one game behind Toledo, who is rightly considered the class of the conference. But I think this spread is too high given the uncertainty at QB. Even if Finn does return, there has to be some concern over how effective he can be. 

The area where I expect Ball State to be effective on offense is running the ball. If you remove a game vs. Central Michigan, this Toledo defense has poor numbers against the run. Four opponents have run for 200+ yards on them, including the likes of UMass and San Diego State. The Cardinals are also much better than the Rockets when it comes to not turning the football over. You’re going to want to take the points in this edition of Tuesday night MAC-tion. 9* 

The Ravens and Jackson face the Saints and Dalton under the lights on Monday Night Football.  Not a lot separates these two teams in stats, although the Ravens have faced much stiffer defenses.  The Ravens' addition of Roquan Smith also adds a solid component to their defense.  The Saints completely shut down the hapless Raiders last week but the same team gave up 42 points to the Cardinals the week before.
Both teams could be described as run-first, and here the Ravens' defense have the edge.  They are 5th against the run, allowing just 80 yards a game in their last three starts.  The Ravens do give up more passing yards than the Saints, but Baltimore is tougher in pass pressure and much stronger in creating takeaways, significant this week because Dalton and the Saints do turn the ball over more frequently.  The Ravens have two solid run options and Lamar, plus an uptick in passing yards last week.  Not to underestimate Kamara and Hill, but they and Dalton will have a tougher time moving the ball this week.
Look for big Prime-time games from Smith and Jackson, and a Saints' regression tonight.  Take the Ravens to win and cover.

The Seahawks meet the Cardinals at home off three straight victories, one of them against the Cardinals.  The Seahawks have a much improved defense since the start of the season.  There is now no defensive category that Seattle doesn't lead the Cardinals in the last three games, against roughly similar competition.  The Cardinals' defense is struggling against the run which plays to Seattle's fine young running back Walker III.  Arizona has also allowed a 93 average passer rating compared to 76 for the Seahawks in their last three games.
With the return of Hopkins, there has been an uptick in the Cardinals' passing game, however the Cardinals' O line has not protected Murray well and the Seahawks are averaging nearly 5 sacks a game and 71 pressures. The Cardinals' pass rush will have a good crack at Smith, but Smith has the benefit of  much better running backs.
Geno Smith has been an eye-opener this year, with an average passer rating 20 points higher than Murray's.  He has thrown for more TDs than Murray and with half the picks.  He is accurate and, surprise, he can run too, although not as well as Murray.  While he doesn't have Hopkins he does have a fine pair of targets in Metcalf and Lockett.
Seattle is a very well-directed team, and has been successful in addressing their weaknesses on the fly.  Other than the return of Hopkins, it has been status quo for Arizona.  Arizona must win or no, road or no, I am wagering that Seattle will win this game or at least cover.