The set-up: I think the desperate 1-3 Bruins will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire vs. the 2-1 Wildcats. UCLA managed a one-point victory in last year’s game. Arizona comes in having won straight at home, most recently over the hapless Texas Tech Red Raiders, but note that it’s still lost five of its last eight Pac 12 conference games overall. Arizona’s offense looks decent, but UCLA catches a break here facing suspect Wildcats’ QB Khalil Tate, who’s completed only 63 percent of his passes for six TD’s to four INT’s. 

The pick: The Bruins enter with momentum and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had five TD pass and two more on the ground. And that’s bad news for an Arizona secondary which has been torched by the pass this year, allowing 373 yards per game. The Bruins have been poor defensively, but note that they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. Arizona on the other hand is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its bye week. Grab the points and expect a closer than expected battle. 

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA.

The set-up: Ohio State has won four straight in this series, including a 36-31 home win in 2018. The Buckeyes are 4-0 and they enter off a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio last Saturday. Nebraska clearly won’t be rolling over here as it’s 3-1 and most recently it beat Illinois 42-38. These two Big Ten title contenders have played to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that this Week 5 matchup finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: Nebraska’s defense is under-rated here, it allowing only 116.7 rushing yards and 240 passing yards per game. But not to be outdone, the Buckeyes come in ranked as the second best defense in the country, conceding just 220 total yards per game. Additionally note that the Buckeyes have seen the total go under the number in four of their last six when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points, while Nebraska has seen the total dip under in four of its last five after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ohio State/Nebraska under.

The set-up: I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the 0-4 Rice Owls will fight tooth and nail and at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Rice has fallen to four quality opponents though and I think it finally puts everything together here in front of the home town crowd. Note that these two teams have one mutual non-conference opponent this year, the Texas Longhorns.

The pick: And note that each team lost by the approximate same score, with Louisiana Tech falling 45-14 and Rice losing 48-13. The Bulldogs’ defense allowed nearly 400 yards passing to FIU’s QB last week. And that’s good news for Owls’ QB Tom Stewart, who has 414 passing yards, three TD’s and on INT’s. Rice has allowed 31 PPG so far, but again that number is skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition thus far. Additionally note that Louisiana Tech is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Rice is 2-0 ATS in its last two off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points but wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset. 

8* play on Rice.

The set-up: Outright victory? Most likely not. But I’m expecting a battle until the end here between these Big Ten rivals. Indiana comes in off a blowout victory over UConn, while MSU enters off a victory over Northwestern. The Hoosiers have lost nine of the last ten in this series, including last year’s contest 35-21. But last week Indiana posted 430 yards of offense, while holding the Huskies to just 145. Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey was 23 of 27 for 247 yards, three TD’s and an an INT. Overall Indiana averages 33 PPG, and it concedes 19. 

The pick: MSU is averaging 29 PPG and it’s conceding 11. The Hoosiers though are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following one or more consecutive SU wins, while MSU is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a row win vs. a conference rival. I think the stage is set for a competitive battle.

8* play on Indiana.

The set-up: Coastal Carolina won’t be lacking for motivation here after winning three straight. Overall the Chanticleers are averaging 27 PPG and 181 passing yards, led by dual-threat QB Bryce Carpenter, who had 102 rushing yards and 104 passing yards in the blowout win over UMass. 

The pick: And would anyone blame App State for having a tiny bit of a mental letdown this week after its big 34-31 win over UNC at Chapel Hill last weekend?! It was the Tar Heels first victory vs. a Power Five opponent since 2007. App State has averaged 49 PPG this year, but I’m still unconvinced and think this one sets up beautifully for the surging visitors. Coastal Carolina is getting the job done by controlling the clock, averaging 200 rushing yards per game this year. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a competitive battle. 

8* play on Coastal Carolina.

The set-up: From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the visitors. The Badgers enter off a big win over Michigan last week and I think an imminent letdown is inevitable for the home side here. Northwestern’ QB Hunter Johnson doesn’t have anything to lose here after starting the season with four INT’s and just one TD. Keep your eyes on Northwestern WR Bennett Skowronek, who has caught a pass in 30 straight games. The Wildcats will have their hands full with Badgers’ RB Johathan Taylor, who leads the conference in rushing.

The pick: However with the home side looking to control the pace and limit mistakes, I think that also plays into the Wildcats’ hands today and the sizeable spread they’ve been afforded. Northwestern hasn’t been very good on either side of the ball, but the defense still leads Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue. I look for the Badgers to go up early and then take the foot off the gas. Grab the points, expect a solid back door cover.

8* play on Northwestern.

The set-up: I think the 2-2 Bulls come to town complacent after their big upset win over Temple last week. This is the first conference game for both teams and I believe the Bulls stumble on the road. The RedHawks won’t be lacking for motivation here as they’re 1-3. A closer look at Miami-Ohio’s win/loss record though sees that it’s played the much tougher competition, including a humbling 76-5 loss to Ohio State last time out. Miami Ohio also plays with revenge here after falling 51-42 at Buffalo last season. 

The pick: Note though that the home team has covered in four of the last five games in this series. Buffalo’ QB Matt Myers was only 9 of 15 with no TD’s last week and was picked off once. The Bulls got 217 yards rushing and held Temple to only 31. But I like Miami Ohio’ QB Brett Gabbert at home here as he looks to bounce back after last week’s embarrassment. Gabbert still has 529 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s despite last week’s blowout setback. Miami has covered in eight of its last nine MAC games and in four of its last five at home. Look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done this afternoon.

8* play on Miami Ohio.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing well. Both teams are led by dynamic  QB’s. ASU is led by Jayden Daniels, while Cal is led by Chase Garbers. Daniels has looked poised early, but he’s still for the most part untested and that definitely changes tonight. Note that in the game vs. Michigan State, Daniels was only 15 of 26 for 140 yards and no TD’s in the 10-7 win. Cal sits 61st in the country in defense, allowing 366.5 YPG. The Bears’ secondary has given up just two passing TD’s as well through four games. 

The pick: Garbers has a 7:2 TD:INT thus far. He’s backed up by two competent RB’s in Christopher Brown Jr. and Marcel Dancy, who will keep the Sun Devils honest with Garbers (both have two rushing TD’s so far this season.) I give Cal the slight edge in all three phases and combined with the home field advantage, I’m going to confidently lay the points and expect a solid cover.

10* PAC-12 BEST OF THE BEST on California.

The set-up: Yes the Eagles are “desperate” at 1-2, but they’ve also been terrible for the most part leading into this short week Thursday night contest. Carson Wentz has been good for Philly, but he’s been hampered by the fact that so many of his offensive weapons around him are injured. Five teams sit without a loss in the Eagles’ division and with a chance to deliver the knock out blow, I think the surging home side does just that. With a shot at a 4-0 start, I look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. 

The pick: Note that Green Bay has led a half time in each of its three wins. The Packers have jumped out to early leads and maintained because of their incredible defensive play, allowing only 11.7 PPG. I think that Philadelphia struggles here to move the ball vs. this red hot defensive unit and I expect Aaron Rodgers to continue his blistering start to the 2019/20 campaign. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger.

10* SUPER DESTRUCTION on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: This is an early key AAC West division battle and as such, I think we’re going to see a very competitive affair. Note that the Midshipmen lead the all time series 3-1, including last year’s 22-21 upset victory over the Tigers. Navy likes to slow the game down when on offense, which works against this fast-paced Memphis offense. Keep your eyes on Navy QB Malcolm Perry, who also leads the team in rushing yards and TD’s this year. Memphis has been fantastic early defensively, but I think that over time that the visitors attack will wear down the home side front. 

The pick: The Tigers’ numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition. After a poor offensive showing to open the year vs. Ole Miss, the Tigers put up 55 vs. FCS opponent Southern, while them going on to also beat South Alabama by 42 points. Note that Tigers’ QB Brady White has three TD’s and an three INT’s thus far. Last year it was a one point victory f and the year before that it was a three-point win for the Tigers. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy.

The set-up: I’m a situational handicapper (for the most part) and this is a situationally based pick (note, most of my O/U picks, in every sport, or in fact based upon the situation in which each time finds itself coming in.) Chicago is 1-1 after narrowly edging the Broncos. The Bears looked inept vs. the Packers in Week 1 though. Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky has been shaky at best and he’ll be out to “right the ship” in this favorable matchup. Trubisky and the offense are going to come out and push the pace from start to finish as they look to take advantage of this suspect Skins secondary.

The pick: And it’s do or die essentially for Washington, as an 0-3 hole essentially means that it will already miss the playoffs. While the defense definitely has more questions than answers, note though that the Skins have in fact been decent on the offensive end early, averaging 24.0 PPG, which ranks tenth overall (QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and zero INT’s.) Chicago’s defense is impressive, but I believe this games flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Bears/Redskins.

The set-up: The Browns bounced back with a big win at the Jets last week after getting destroyed on Opening Night by the Titans. Cleveland got behind early in Week 1 and combined with a series of miscues and penalties, both the offensive and defensive game plans got thrown out the window early. Last week though Cleveland looked a lot better and precise on both sides of the ball. LA is in a three-way tie in the tough NFC West with both Seattle and the 49ers and it’s difficult to say anything negative about it to this point, however the overall situation is working against the visitors today.

The pick: I think LA gets caught “looking ahead” to its game next week for the Seahawks. Cleveland is set up perfectly here to steal this one outright, but in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points (and note, LA is a poor 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland is a solid 4-2 ATS in its last six non-conference games.) Outright isn’t out of the question, but grab the points.

10* SLAUGHTER-FEST on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: No outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a “nail-biter” in this one. Denver’s 0-2 and desperate. The stats for teams that start the year 0-3 are downright terrible, so for all intents and purposes, the Bronco’s entire season is on the line this week. Green Bay on the other hand enters on the other end of the spectrum by starting 2-0. The Packers were terrible defensively last year, but so far this season they’ve allowed just 9.5 points per game.

The pick: But I think Green Bay’s early defensive numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Joe Flacco isn’t the QB he once was, but his veteran experience in this situation is actually a strength for Denver going in. Denver lost in the final seconds to the Bears last week (16-14), but it was under some suspect calls from the refs, which prompted Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio to remark: “You can’t control the officiating or bad calls.” Note that GB is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine following an ATS win, while Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game. I expect this one to come down to the final moments.

8* play on Denver Broncos.

The set-up: The Eagles have looked terrible so far this year and I think there’s a chance they could lose this one outright as well. Detroit is 1-0-1 after beating LA 13-10 at home last week. Detroit should be 2-0 after it let a late lead slip away in Week 1, as the Lions are looking much better on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. 

The pick: Detroit kept Philip Rivers out of the end zone last week, so Carson Wentz and this struggling Eagles’ offense will not have an easy time today. Last week Wentz was 25 of 43 for 231 yards, a TD and two INT’s. The Eagles’ run game was non-existent as well, with Jordan Howard picking up 18 yards on eight carries. Also note that Philadelphia suffered major injuries to key players last week (DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and DT Tim Jernigan all listed as day to day.) I think the Lions can smell the blood in the water. Grab the points.

8* play on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: Two undefeated teams collide on Sunday afternoon and only one will leave with the victory. Unless there’s a tie, which isn’t out of the question in my opinion. Regardless, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. KC has won two games on the road, but that was vs. Jacksonville and Oakland. Baltimore has beaten Miami and Arizona. When these teams met in Week 14 last year it was KC that held on for the 27-24 win, making the “revenge scenario” a very real one for Lamar Jackson and the surging Ravens as well. 

The pick: So far Baltimore has outscored its opposition 82-27 this year. Jackson and RB Mark Ingram are going to prove to be too much for this suspect Chiefs’ defense to handle in my opinion. The Chiefs behind QB Patrick Mahomes have outscored their opposition by a 68-36 margin, but the questions on the defensive side of the ball still remain for me. Not so for Baltimore though and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I’m definitely going to grab the points in what sets up to be a very competitive battle.

8* play on the Baltimore Ravens.

The set-up: These two teams enter hungry. That’s where the similarities end though, as Cincinnati is essentially in a “must win” scenario at 0-2, while the Bills are looking to build off their improbable 2-0 start. Neither team will be lacking for motivation here and as such, I’m expecting this contest to be extremely wide open. After a tight 21-20 setback in Seattle and then a 41-17 loss to San Francisco, the pressure is clearly on Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton to step up and deliver here. 

The pick: The Bills have gotten great play on both sides of the ball as well, especially from QB Josh Allen, who led his team on four TD drives in their Week 2 victory against the Giants. From a situational stand point, I think it definitely sets up as a “shootout,” but also note that the Bengals have seen the total go over the number in six of their last seven as a road dog of seven points or less, while Buffalo has seen the total soar over in nine of its last 12 at home. This number is a litre low.

8* play on the over Bengals/Bills.

The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams after each won in Week 2. Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett has five TD’s and just one INT so far this year and the run game has looked decent as well for the Colts behind Marlon Mack. The Falcons looked pretty good in their 24-20 win over the Eagles last week, as ATSL gets production across the board from several key players, including Calvin Ridley, who has 169 receiving yards already. 

The pick: I think it’s interesting to note though that the Falcons lead the league in receiving yards allowed and so far they’ve done a superb job in limiting big plays. The Colts are ranked dead last in the NFL in passing yards per game (147) and I believe their extreme one-dimensionality comes back to bite them here. Grab the points.

8* play on the Atlanta Falcons.

The set-up: Two teams which have gotten out to shaky starts go head to head on Sunday afternoon and because of that, I expect more of a higher-scoring shootout than a lower-scoring battle. Oakland comes in off a 28-10 loss at home to Kansas City and it hits the road for the first time this year. Minnesota enters off a sloppy performance/loss in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook was a bright spot for Minnesota last week, finishing with 154 rushing yards.  

The pick: Oakland heads out on a lengthy road trip, as its only home game in the next five weeks is in London. The Raiders have been getting great production from other members as well, including WR Tyrell Williams, who has 151 yards receiving and two TD’s so far. The Raiders have to be feeling good with RB Josh Jacobs as well, who has 184 rushing yards and two TD’s. The passing defense looked poor vs. Patrick Mahomes though and it’ll be tested again this week by the Vikes’ Kirk Cousins. These two starting QB’s (David Carr and Cousins) both have something to prove this year and after suspect starts to the 2019/20 season. When you add it all up, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Raiders/Vikings.

The set-up: Ball State is 1-2, most recently coming off a 41-31 loss to FAU. The Cardinals haven’t had any issues putting points on the board, but Ball State is unable to stop anyone. NC State won’t be lacking for motivation here as it comes in off an upset 44-72 loss at WVU. It was a bit of a shock considering how well NC State looked against ECU (34-6 win) and Western Carolina (41-0.) The Cardinals have gotten great production from QB Drew Pitt, with 11 TD’s and just three INT’s, but now Ball State faces its stiffest defensive competition to date. 

The pick: With the backing of the home crowd and playing with a chip on their shoulder, I definitely think that from a situational stand point, the Wolf Pack are the correct call here today. But note as well that Ball State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog, while NC State is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a loss ATS. Lay the points, expect a rout.

8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on NC State.

The set-up: It’s the annual Rio Grande Rivalry and I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Lobos are 40-14-3 at home against NMSU in Albuquerque. But note that the Aggies have won two of the last three in this series. With neither side lacking for confidence or motivation, this one definitely has more the feel of a wide open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” New Mexico State is led by Tevaka Tuioti, who was 6 for 13 for 132 yards vs. Notre Dame, and who is a legitimate dual threat QB. 

The pick: These two teams hate each other and I believe that extra factor is going to help in contributing to a higher-scoring shootout. Note as well though that New Mexico State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight after a loss by 17 points or more, while New Mexico has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a shade low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER New Mexico State/New Mexico.

The set-up: Temple comes in content in my opinion after its upset victory over Maryland and a 2-0 start to the year. Temple’ QB Anthony Russo has 686 yards, seven TD’s and two INT’s. Overall the Owl are averaging 561 yards of offense and 38 PPG this year. The Bulls though are a tough defense and I think the unit keeps the team in this game late. Buffalo is looking to bounce back after a 35-17 loss to Liberty last time out. Bulls’ QB Matt Myers has 481 yards, five TD’s and an INT, while Kevin Marks has 247 yards rushing. Overall Buffalo averages 385.3 yards and 22.7 PPG. 

The pick: Both of Temple’s wins have come at home and I have a hard time laying so many points on its first true road game of the season (despite how good its looked to his point). Conversely, both of Buffalo’s losses have come on the road. I’m banking on a competitive battle and will therefore be grabbing the ample points in this one.

8* PLAYBOOK on Buffalo

The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset. I just think that Ohio State will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it plays out the final game of the non-conference schedule. Miami Ohio lost to Iowa 38-14, beat Tennessee Tech 48-17 and then fell to Cincinnati 35-13. Who could fault the Buckeyes for looking past their lowly opponent after starting the year 3-0, with a 45-21 win over FAU, a 42-0 victory over Cincinnati and a 51-10 effort over Indiana last week. 

The pick: Justin Fields clearly has the advantage over Miami’s Brett Gabbert, but as mentioned, this is a situational play more than anything else. The RedHawks have plenty to work on in this game which they know they’re going to lose, while Ohio State can simply “go through the motions” and still get the job done before a difficult upcoming Big Ten schedule. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio 

The set-up: While likely not too high-scoring, I still think that MSU’s offense will have more than enough in the tank to distance itself from its lowly counterpart today. And note that clearly the Spartans won’t be taking anything for granted here as the Wildcats have taken three straight in the series and four of the last five dating to 2012. Michigan State is also out to atone for its inexplicable setback at home to Arizona State. MSU’ QB Brian Lewerke looked out of sorts last week, but he and RB Elijah Collins have dominated this series in the past and I expect that trend to continues here. Collins in particular already has 281 yards rushing and he had a TD last week as well. 

The pick: Northwestern has been terrible against the run, allowing 175.33 yards per game. Wildcats’ No. 1 QB TJ Green went down with injury in Week 1 and ever since then the Northwestern offense has been stuck in neutral with Hunter Johnson running the show (Wildcats are the only team in the Big Ten average ring fewer than five yards per play.) I expect a lot from the Michigan State defense and I expect nothing from the Wildcats offense. Look for Lewerke to take advantage and lay the points.

8* play on Michigan State.

The set-up: Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked very impressive. The Golden Bears had a 20-0 lead over UNT, only to hold on for the 23-17 victory, while Ole Miss posted an uninspiring 40-29 victory over FCS Southeastern Louisiana. Cal posted a 129 yards of offense in the first quarter last week, but then only 150 yards over the final three combined. Cal QB Chase Garbers was just nine of 22 and he was running for his life most of the time. 

The pick: Ole Miss has been aggressive on the defensive side of the ball, posting 27 tackles for a loss through three games, which is most in the SEC. Ole Miss has talent on the offensive side of the ball as well and scheduling is in its favor, as a 9 AM PST contest for a West Coast team which has a 1,700 mile trip before hand is never an easy task. Also note that the Bears finishing last week’s game without LB’s Chinedu Udeogu, Cameron Goode and Tevin Paul because of injury. The Grove is going to be electric in what is essentially a “must win” for the home side.

8* play on Ole Miss.

The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. But after jumping out to an early insurmountable lead, I think the Crimson Tide takes the foot off the gas in the second half and I look for the lowly Southern Miss Golden Eagles to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Last week Alabama destroyed USC 47-23, with QB Tua Tagovailoa going for a career-high 444 passing yards. Southern Miss won’t be lacking for motivation here as it enters off a 47-42 road win over Troy. 

The pick: Golden Eagles’ QB Jack Abraham had 463 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s win. Abraham leads the Conference USA in passing and he’ll be given the green light early and often this afternoon. I believe he’s a difference maker. Additionally note that Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non conference road games as an underdog of 35 points or more. Grab the points.

8* play on the Southern Miss

The set-up: USC is coming off a surprising Week 3 loss at BYU and I look for it to risk life and limb today as it tries to score the outright upset. Utah owns one of the best defenses in the country, but it does struggle against “air raid” offenses like Washington State and these very USC Trojans. USC held BYU to just 3.3 YPC, so containing mobile Utah QB Tyler Huntley is definitely possible. 

The pick: USC QB Kedon Slovis looked great in Week 2 with 377 yards and three TD’s, but last week he had three INT’s. Utah has struggled in this arena in the past and I believe the circumstances are working against it here as well. USC has the offensive firepower to easily hang with the Utes and I think that’ll be more than enough to get the job done here, with a possible outright in the cards as well. That said, grab the points.

10* on USC

The set-up: Both teams come in undefeated. Boise State is the better team and it has the advantage, but the Falcons won’t be going down without a fight today. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do believe that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The only way to beat these Boise State Broncos is by keeping them off the field! And that’s exactly what Air Force is designed to do as it looks to control the tempo of a contest with its strong run game, behind Tavin Birdow and Kadin Remsberg (note that the Falcons are second in the country in rushing with 353.5 YPG on the ground.) 

The pick: Boise State will be relentless in its attack as well with QB Hank Bachmeier, but I believe the Falcons’ improved defensive play, combined with their aggressive “run first” offensive attack will indeed keep this contest competitive until the final moments. Additionally note that AF is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a dog, while Boise State is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite. I’m grabbing the points.

8* on Air Force.

The set-up: FIU was projected by many to contend for the Conference USA East Division title, but it’s dropped its first two games, which includes an upset setback to WKU at home to start C-USA play. The Golden Panthers earned their first win last week though vs. FCS New Hampshire last week (30-17), so they do come in with something to build off. Louisiana Tech has looked better than FIU, but not by much. It opened with a 45-14 loss at Texas, and then followed it up with a 20-14 win over FCS Grambling. It then beat Bowling Green 35-7 last week. FIU starting QB James Morgan is likely out for this one with an ankle injury, but back up Kaylan Wiggins looked impressive last week with 187 rushing yards on 14 carries, while also going 12 of 18 passing for 127 yards in the win. The Golden Panthers also have three quality backs in D’Vonte Prie, Napoleon Maxwell and Anthony Jones. 

The pick: The Bulldogs have a dynamic QB in J’Mar Smith, but FIU has a talented defense as well with LB Sage Lewis leading the way with 22 total tackles this year, while also posting an INT last week. Yes FIU has many question marks, but it has the talent to keep this one close down the stretch in my opinion. Grab the ample points.

8* play on FIU

The set-up: Not known for their offensive explosiveness for the most part, I do in fact believe that this game’s total will fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Neither team has the luxury to take the foot off the gas tonight and just hope things work out. The Titans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. Jacksonville came “oh so close” to an upset in Houston last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. While both of these team’s games vs. each other went “under” the number last year, I believe the overall conditions that each side finds itself in will finally lend itself to more of a high-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Indeed, despite both game’s totals going under the number last year, five of the last seven between these clubs have gone over the number. Tennessee looked great in its Week 1 demolition of the Browns, but then it had a letdown in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Colts. RB Derrick Henry ate up the Jags last year and he had 81 yards and a TD in last week’s defeat as well. Jacksonville is banged up across the board, but rookie QB Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be lacking for motivation either. When you add up all of the above factors, this number is low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Titans/Jags.

The set-up: It’s the AAC Opener for both teams and I’m expecting a shootout. Houston is also looking to bounce back from a loss last week. Coach Dana Holgorsen likes to push the pace with an up-tempo air-raid blitz and his counterpart Wilie Fritz, who likes to mix things up, is going to have to match pace in my opinion. Houston has faced two decent teams in Oklahoma and Washington to open the season and QB D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet to this point. But the versatile back is poised for a monster game here in my opinion, as remember that the Cougars had the No. 16 passing offense in the nation last year. Tulane’s pass defense has been decent, but I look for King and company to be committed to the pass today from start to finish.

The pick: Tulane has gotten great play from QB Justin McMillan as well, who has 424 yards and two TD’s through the air and a team-high 154 yards and three TD’s on the ground as well. Keep your eyes on Green Wave receiver Darnell Mooney, who has 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD in the past three games. So far the Cougars’ defense hasn’t fared so well (stiff competition as noted above), but Tulane won’t be rolling over here either as it tries to take advantage of some big holes on the Houston defense. I expect a couple of defensive TD’s along the way as this total flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Houston/Tulane.

The set-up: The Browns were their own worst enemy in Week 1, as several dumb/costly penalties led to an early deficit and they were never mentally able to recover. But Cleveland hasn’t played on Monday night since 2010 and it’ll be out to correct those mistakes and take advantage of this situation (18 penalties for 182 yards.) New York looked poor in Week 1 too though, blowing a 16-0 lead to the Bills at home. But injuries played a big part in New York’s second half collapse, as CJ Moseley and Quinnen Williams both sidelined. 

The pick: And now to make matters worse for New York, QB Sam Darnold has been diagnosed with mononucleosis, meaning that backup Trevor Siemian is being thrust into the spotlight. Baker Mayfield threw three INT’s last week, but that was more out of a sense of desperation with the game already out of reach. I think the Browns defense is the biggest difference maker today. It looked bad last week, but the aforementioned penalties played a big part in that. I think the visitors feast on the Jets’ instability. Lay the points.

10* MONDAY NIGHT MASSACRE on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Philadelphia came from behind to knock off the Redskins 33-27 last weekend, I but I think it’ll struggle in this difficult road venue and against this desperate Falcons side looking to bounce back off a poor 28-12 loss to the Vikes in Week 1. Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense looked terrible for most of the game, but they finally found a bit of a rythym near the end of the game and I believe the unit will carry that momentum over here. In a division packed with quality teams, this has for all intents and purposes become a “must win” for ATL this weekend. 

The pick: The Eagles allowed a ghastly 380 yards to Washington’ QB Case Keenum last week and sacked him only once, so if not now for Ryan and the Falcons…when?! 

Atlanta Falcons 7* play

The set-up: Oakland looked better than expected in Week 1 by besting the Broncos 24-16 on Monday night. The Chiefs rolled through the Jags 40-26, but I think they’ll have a more difficult time in their second straight road game to open the season. Note that the win over Jacksonville came at a price as well as WR Tyreek Hill was lost to injury and NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury. It all adds up to a more conservative style from the visitors explosive offense in my opinion. 

The pick: Oakland got big production from its run game in Week 1, with Josh Jacobs finishing with 85 rushing yards and two TD’s. I look for the improved Raiders defense to play a big part in the outcome of this one as well. And additionally note that KC has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 after plaint its previous game on the road, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten as a home dog. The overall conditions/factors definitely point to the under as the correct call on the total in this one.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under Chiefs/Raiders.

The set-up: It’s difficult to win and cover on the road, but the Bills did just that at MetLife Stadium last weekend, staging a come from behind win over the Jets. To do it on back-to-back weeks is extremely difficult and only the better teams usually accomplish that. Clearly the Bills aren’t a great team. It’s almost “do or die” now for Eli Manning and com pay after their loss in Week 1. Expect to see a heavy dose of Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley as well, as he looks to ease the pressure off New York’s veteran pivot. 

The pick: The numbers are on our side as well, as note that Buffalo is a poor 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog and only 2-4 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Conversely, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a road loss vs. a division rival and 3-1 ATS in their last four off a loss by ten points or more to a division rival. Grab the points.

10* VERY EARLY COACH’S CORNER the New York Giants.

The set-up: TCU comes out of its bye week and I look for it to match pace with the home side. The Horned Frogs won’t be taking anything for granted after having lost three of their last four on the road dating to last year. TCU is 1-0 after beating up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. So far the Horned Frogs have averaged 200 yards per game and allowed just seven points. But clearly TCU is in for a much stiffer test this evening. 

The pick: Purdue has won four of its last five home games. The Boilermakers have gotten 932 yards and nine TD’s from QB Elijah Sindelar and I look for the senior QB to open up the playbook tonight as well. He’ll have to, as note that Purdue is allowing 29 points and 447.5 YPG on the defensive side of things. TCU comes in rested and focused and knows it can’t rest on its heels if it has any hopes at an upset. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely feel this number is a little low.

10* totals play on OVER TCU/Purdue.

The set-up: Arizona State upset MSU last year and while I’m not calling for a repeat on Saturday afternoon, I do definitely think that the conditions are right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ASU admittedly faces a better team this year, but Herm Edwards’ side won’t be lacking for motivation or confidence. ASU QB Jayden Daniels had a 300 yard passing game last weekend. MSU is better against the run than the pass, so that plays into Daniels favor on Saturday. 

The pick: The Spartans rely heavily on their run game with Elijah Collins leading the charge, but QB Brian Lewerke still has a few question marks surrounding him in my opinion after a poor 2018 showing. With conference play starting next week, this also sets up as a natural “look ahead” spot for MSU. No outright, but closer than expected.

10* play on Arizona State.

The set-up: WKU is just 1-1 this year, but its been competitive in each contest. In Week 1 the Hilltoppers fell to Central Arkansas by a score of 35-28, before then rebounding with a solid 20-14 victory over FIU last weekend. Louisville has a 1-1 mark as well, falling 35-17 to Notre Dame, before then waxing EKU 42-0 last weekend. 

The pick: The trends DO NOT favor the favorite in this one though, as note that the Cardinals are a terrible 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site affairs. WKU on the other hand is 27-17 ATS the last two years after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less. Western Kentucky QB Steven Duncan matches Louisville QB Jawon Pass in my opinion and that means that I’m grabbing up the points.

8* play on WKU.

The set-up: NC State has outscored its first two opponents 75-6, including last week’s opponent Western Carolina 41-0. WVU won’t be lacking for motivation today though. The Mountaineers are 1-1, but they’ve looked terrible in both games. WVU narrowly defeated James Madison in Week 1, before then getting destroyed 38-7 by Missouri last weekend. WVU heads into Big 12 play next weekend, making this contest more crucial than ever. NC State Matt McKay hasn’t been challenged yet this season, but I believe that changes this afternoon. 

The pick: NC State had plenty of question marks heading into the season and while its first year QB and RB have looked solid to this point, clearly hitting the road to take on this motivated Power 5 opponent is an entirely different “animal.” In what I expect to be a very competitive battle, I’m grabbing the points.

8* play on West Virginia.

The set-up: Last weekend the Terps annihilated then No. 21 Syracuse 63-20 as an underdog and I believe it’s in line for a classic “letdown” here. Temple destroyed FCS Bucknell 56-12 in its opener, and then enjoyed last weekend off as its bye. Fresh and focused, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances today, as note that in last year’s matchup at College Park, the Owls emerged with a 35-14 victory. 

The pick: Temple QB Anthony Russo started on the road vs. the Terps last year and was 15 of 25 for 228 yards, one TD and an INT. Maryland has plenty of offensive talent, especially at the QB position with Josh Jackson, but the overall conditions favor the hungry and rested home side in my opinion. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on Temple.

The set-up: It’s the Washington State Cougars vs. the Houston Cougars and if you like offense, then this game is for you! WSU is ranked No. 20 after starting 2-0 and averaging 58.8 PPG. Houston simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in my opinion. Note that WSU QB Anthony Gordon already has 884 yards and nine TD’s this season. Houston is 1-1, losing to Oklahoma in its opener, before beating Prairie View 37-17. 

The pick: Nine different players caught a pass for WSU last week. Keep your eyes on WSU RB Max Borghi as well, who is averaging 95 all purpose yards per game. D’Eriq King is a big time talent for the Cougars, but he lacks the talent around him to keep up down the stretch. Look for Gordon to keep up the blistering pace with his biggest game of the season. 

10* play on Washington State.

The set-up: UNC comes in quietly confident after starting the year 2-0 and getting past Coastal rival Miami last week. Wake is 2-0 as well after wins over Utah State and Rice. UNC has an extremely dynamic QB in Sam Howell and a competent back in Javonte Williams, who has 178 yards over two games. 

The pick: The Demon Deacons have been terrible vs. the past as well, currently ranked 123rd nationally. Also note that Wake’s star RB Cade Carney is once again listed as questionable for this game after missing last week as well. Jamie Newman has been great at QB as well for Wake, but his team’s weakness against the pass on the defensive side is the difference maker in my opinion. With FCS Elon up next, I think the home side gets caught “looking ahead” as well. Grab the points.

8* play on UNC.

The set-up: I’m making a play on both the side and the total in this game. If you’ve bought this package, then you know that I’m on the Tar Heels with the points here. After starting the year 2-0, I think that Wake is going to take a step back here. The Demon Deacons have a “cream puff” next weekend vs. Elon, before a gruelling upcoming schedule vs. Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and NC State. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!”

The pick: UNC has been better than advertised at 2-0 and I expect the visitors to once again lean heavily on RB Javonte Williams, who so far has 178 yards over two games. Additionally note that UNC has seen the total go under in its last five games after a win by six points or less in two straight games. This number is a shade high.

10* play on the under UNC/Wake.

The set-up: This is a big game early on for these NFC South opponents and because of that, I believe we’re going to see an all out war from start to finish. This game on the short week just screams defensive battle to me. The Bucs looked inept in their 31-17 loss to the 49ers. Carolina was on its heels early and it could never recover in its 30-27 setback to the Rams. With both divisional teams at 0-1, there’s no question that this sets up as a very important early game for both clubs.

The pick: Cam Newton and Jameis Winston both looked shaky in their respective openers. With both teams looking to protect the ball, to limit turnovers and costly mistakes, from a situational stand point everything clearly points to a lower-scoring affair, but note that the Bucs have seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in five of its last six after a loss by six points or less. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under.

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on Broncos. Oakland lost its top receiver in Antonio Brown over the weekend in a heated public dispute and I believe it struggles with its focus on Monday night. Denver on the other hand had a new head coach in Vic Fangio, as well as a new QB in veteran Joe Flacco. Combined with the Bronco’s stellar defensive unit, led by Von Miller, I think that the visitors will find a way to get the job done in Week 1. Remember that next year the Raiders leave to Las Vegas anyways, which will be Jon Gruden’s third year into his five year contract. 

The pick: But as mentioned off the top, this really comes down to the recent AB distraction. For months the Raiders have been preparing to have they dynamic receiver in their line-up and now that he’s done, I believe the one week transition period simply is not enough time. Look for Denver’s methodical approach to be the difference here vs. the short-handed home side. 

Denver Broncos 10* money-line

The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams. It’s a big game for many of the individual players today as well. Antonio Brown was cut by the Raiders and he just signed with the Patriots. He’ll be along side the controversial Josh Gordon now. Of course, AB is playing against his former team for the first time as well. The Steelers won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously facing AB and their most heated and  hated rival. Does anyone have more to prove on the field than Ben Roethlisberger? This is also the nationally televised contest, which puts added pressure on everyone. There’s no lack of experience or talent on the field of play today, but I believe the conditions are right for these two “under the radar” defense to “steal the show” in Week 1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 15 on the road, while NE has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. This one has low-scoring battle written all over it. Play the under.

Pittsburgh Steelers/NE Patriots UNDER 9* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Indianapolis has a lot of talent, but the Colts will clearly be looking for an identity moving forward after QB Andrew Luck shockingly announced his retirement from football just a couple of weeks ago. Jacoby Brissett is a capable QB, but the mental blow that Luck’s departure will have on this organization will clearly take some time to get over. 

The pick: Yes the Chargers are without RB Melvin Gordon, but I’ve always been of the thought that RB’s are replaceable in the NFL. The experience that Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers brings to the table is the difference maker here. Brissett only threw 15 passes in the preseason and he sat out the third and fourth games. Rest leads to rust for Brissett and the rudder-less Colts. Lay the money-line on the home side here.

LA Chargers Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: The Rams finally get a chance to take out their frustrations on someone after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Last year LA was 13-3. Carolina was 6-2 after the first eight weeks of action last season, but it then finished with a 7-9 overall record. A big difference for LA though to open the season is the health of RB Todd Gurley, who had to play through injury over the final month and a half. Receiver Cooper Kupp is back and healthy as well for LA after his season was cut short with an ACL tear. 

The pick: Panthers’ QB Cam Newton suffered a shoulder injury with two games left last year and he underwent surgery for the second time in three years this offseason. Newton was used sparingly in the preseason and sprained his ankle in Week 3 vs. the Patriots. Newton’s health is a concern for me and it makes the hungry and healthy the Rams the correct call in this one. Lay the short points.

LA Rams 10* play

The set-up: Forget the points in this one in my opinion, as I’m going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price on the home side to win this game straight up. Both BYU and Tennessee lost in Week 1, which makes home field advantage crucial here in my opinion. The Vols enter off a humbling loss to Georgia State this past weekend and suffice it to say, I think that the home side risks life and limb to redeem itself this time around. BYU looked horrible as well in its 30-12 home loss to Utah (QB Zach Wilson threw two INT’s in the loss.) 

The pick: Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano had over 300 yards and a pair of scores in last week’s loss to the Panthers and I think he’ll be a difference maker here. The Vols catch a break facing BYU’s offense this weekend as well. Expect Tennessee to get back on track and to punch its first victory into the win column once it’s all said and done.

Tennessee Moneyline 7* play

The set-up: SDSU managed a win over FCS opponent Weber State last week, but it was anything but dominant. UCLA comes in off a poor performance vs. Cincinnati, but I think that the Bruins bounce back in friendly confines. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled last week vs. the Bearcats, but I expect him to bounce back in friendly confines. That said, UCLA’s defense was a strength in the 24-14 setback. 

The pick: And that doesn’t bode well for SDSU QB Ryan Agnew, who last week completed only 16 passes for 108 yards. The Aztecs only managed 130 yards rushing last week as well. The Aztecs have history against them as well, as they’re 0-21-1 vs. the Bruins lifetime, getting outscored 695-241 in the process. I like Chip Kelly to settle down his troops and to deliver the goods at home. Lay the points.

UCLA 10* play

The set-up: No spoilers here, as I look for Iowa to lay the hammer down from start to finish. McClane Carter had 340 passing yards and two TD’s in Rutgers beatdown win over UMass, but clearly now the Scarlet Knights face an entirely different animal in the Hawkeyes. Also note that Carter was in fact picked off three times by the Minutemen. The Scarlet Knights looked good defensively in holding UMass to 14 points, but once again, clearly they’re going to have their hands full with this top tier opponent and in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley was 21 of 30 for 252 yards and three TD’s and no picks last week. He was complimented by RB Mekhi Sargent, who also had four catches for 65 yards (overall the Hawkeyes had 213 yards rushing.) I think Rutgers takes a step back after last week’s “cream puff.” Lay the points.

Iowa 8* play

The set-up: This sets up as a classic “trap” for the Panthers. Pittsburgh lost to Virginia last weekend and now it faces a tough Ohio team at home, before heading for an in-state rivalry vs. Penn State. I believe the dangerous Bobcats are going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke had a good showing for Rhode Island last week and overall the Bobcats rushed for 278 yards last week. The Panthers looked decent defensively last week, but it averaged only 2.6 yards per rushing attempt while on offense (note that Pitt QB Kenny Pickett was just 21 of 41 for 185 yards, one TD and two INT’s. 

The pick: The Panthers are still reeling from last week’s pathetic performance and they’re also already worried and looking ahead to next week. Outright win? Possible, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

Ohio Bobcats 6* play

The set-up: Clearly I’m not calling for an outright victory, but for a number of different reasons I do indeed feel that this spread is too large for the Demon Deacons to cover under the Friday Night lights. Wake Forest came from behind to knock off Utah State 38-35 last weekend and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. Rice lost 14-7 to Army, but the Owls were impressive from start to finish and I think they carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Wake Forest had 579 yards last week, but they ran 58 times and threw 47. That translates into only 5.51 yards per play, which ranked 75th in the country. Army ran for 231 yards vs. Rice, but the Owls held the vaunted Black Knights to just 4.1 yards per attempt, the third best in the country of the 26 FBS defensive units which gave up more than 200 yards on the ground last week. The Owls looked bad offensively last week, but Army is stout. Note that Wake Forest allowed 596 total yards of offense to Utah State, including 416 through the air. I’m grabbing the points.

Rice 10* play

The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question in my opinion, I’m going to ultimately recommend that you grab as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two talented teams has its hands on the ball last. This is the league’s 100th anniversary season and this is in fact the oldest rivalry in the league. Chicago comes in off an impressive 12-4 campaign in 2018, but with the starters having seen extreme limited time in the pre-season, I believe the home side does indeed come out flat on Opening night. 

The pick: A 1-5 stretch during Nov-Dec. would de-rail the Packers last year and they’d go on to finish 6-9-1. Green Bay though is looking to jump-start its offense with Aaron Rodgers under center once again and it welcomes in new head coach Matt LaFleur, who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams and Titans the last two years. Last year these teams split out and everything once again points to a competitive battle this season. The Packers went out and completely re-vamped their defense as well this year and I believe the moves they made in the off-season pay early dividends. Grab the points.

Green Bay Packers 10* play

The set-up: Big changes occurred for both teams in the off-season. Kyler Murray is gone from Oklahoma, and Ed Oliver has left for Houston. Both teams have new coaching staff as well. It’s interesting to note that when these two teams last battled, it was UH which scored the upset to open the 2016 season. While I’m not calling for the upset here, I do think that the stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Sooners have been terrible defensively for years, but their offense has masked its inefficiencies. Alex Grinch is the new defensive coordinator for Oklahoma, but I still think the Sooners will struggle on that side of the ball this season. 

The pick: D’Eriq King is back for the Cougars after suffering an early injury last year and he has top RB Patrick Carr back as well (also top WR’s in Courtney Lark, Keith Corbin and Marquez Stevenson.) OU’s defense has been a disaster and while QB Jalen Hurts, a transfer from Alabama should make the offense one of the best in the nation again, the question marks defensively are the difference maker for me in the end. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Houston.

The set-up: No outright upset, but I think it’ll be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Miami Ohio finished 6-6 SU last year, while the Hawkeyes were 9-4. Miami Ohio though finished strong and it’s got a versatile offense which averaged 202 passing yards and 202 rushing yards per game (in eight conference games.) The Hawkeyes averaged 32.7 PPG vs. conference foes, while conceding only 20.6. 

The pick: Miami Ohio though is a sharp 6-2 ATS in its last eight as an underdog, while Iowa is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference home games as a favorite of 21 points or more. This spread is a little large, grab the points.

Miami (OH) 8* play

The set-up: The Orange won’t be taking anything for granted in Week 1 after finishing 10-3 last year (6-2 in the ACC). Syracuse was invited the Camping World Bowl where it defeated WVU 34-18. The Flames finished 6-6 in 2018 and they still weren’t invited to go Bowling. Clearly Liberty will be out to score an early upset here after getting snubbed last season. 

The pick: The Orange were dominant defensively last year, but the unit has suffered turnover in the offseason. Syracuse has to deal with Maryland before a date vs. the Tigers, so I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring shootout (Note as well that the Orange have seen the total fly over the number in four of their last five as a road favorite.) This number is a little low.

Syracuse/Liberty OVER 10* play

The set-up: There’s no “warm ups” for these two teams as their ACC schedule kicks off in Week 1. BC will then face three straight teams which failed to make a bowl berth last year, so the “look ahead” angle definitely comes into play here for the home side in my opinion. The Hokies have ODU and Furman up next and I believe they come to play today. VT’s offense will have some work to do to catch up to its defense. 

The pick: And that’s bad news for BC’s offensive line, which is the biggest question mark heading into this season. The Eagles defense is also breaking in seven new starters. That doesn’t bode well for a team which had difficulties last year controlling the clock. VT has problems on the offensive side of things, but I believe it’s defense controls this game and I look for it to be the deciding factor in the final outcome. Lay the points.

Virginia Tech 10* play

The set-up: North Carolina welcomes back Mack Brown as head coach as he’ll look to re-ignite his former program. UNC turns to QB Sam Howell, while USC goes with Jake Bentley. This is a neutral site game, which levels the playing field somewhat. South Carolina has the advantage at QB, but otherwise I feel that UNC matches up well with the Gamecocks across the board. 

The pick: The Tar Heels have offensive weapons at RB and at WR and I think Howell can match pace with his veteran counterpart. Note as well that South Carolina is just 4-5 ATS in its last non-conference games, while UNC is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. the SEC. I’m banking on Brown’s guidance to keep this one closer than expected. Grab the points.

UNC 10* play

The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset today, but I do think that the writing is on the wall and much more competitive battle is in the cards between these in-state rivals. ECU sports a new coach in Mike Houston and he’ll look to take advantage of an NC State team which has lost several key players from last year’s team, including QB Ryan Finley (it’s interesting to note, that despite winning this game last year, the Pirates have won three of the last four in the series.) ECU hands the ball to Holton Ahlers, who had 1,785 yards and 12 TD’s in ten games for the Pirates last year (also had 592 rushing yards and another six TD’s on the ground.) ECU also has two veteran backs in Hussein Howe and Darius Pinnix. NC State on the other hand is starting a red shirt sophomore at QB today in Matt McKay. Last year he was 7 of 8 for 87 yards in six games (NC State also features all new RB’s.) 

The pick: The Pirates’ experience in the skill positions, especially at the QB spot make the visitors and the points the correct call in my opinion; grab the points!

East Carolina 9* play

The set-up: I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards in this one. The Buffs have a new head coach in Mel Tucker and he has 11 returning starters, including senior QB Steven Montez to build a foundation upon. Colorado State only had three victories last year and I look for the home side to take advantage of this favorable season opening matchup. 

The pick: Last year the Rams had one of the Nation’s worst defensive units, allowing 451.5 YPG and 36.8 PPG. Colorado has won four straight in this series (by an average margin of 21.5 points). Collin Hill is a talented QB, but he’s in over his head here in my opinion vs. the re-worked Buffs defense. I’m expecting a complete rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Colorado 9* play

The set-up: I believe these non-conference opponents open up the playbook on Friday night and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Purdue went 6-7 in 2018, while Nevada was 8-5. But the Boilermakers overcame an 0-3 start to win six of their final nine games. The Wolfpack also started slowly by going 3-3, but they went 4-2 the rest of the way. 

The pick: Both teams return plenty of starters from last season and each will clearly be looking to “hit the ground running” in 2019 after their respective slow starts last year. In the end Nevada scored 25 or more points in nine of its 13 games, while Purdue would average just under 30 PPG last season. For all the situational reasons listed above, play the over.

Purdue/Nevada OVER 10* play

The set-up: Utah State was 11-2 in 2018. A big difference between this year and last for Utah State though is that head coach Matt Wells bolted for the Texas Tech job, meaning that Gary Andersen will be tasked to duplicate that mark. The Demon Deacons were just 7-6 overall last year, but they started slowly and closed strong. And that included two big victories right at the end, smashing Duke 59-7 in its regular season finale, before then holding on for a 37-34 victory over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl. Utah State benefits from having Jordan Love back at QB, but he now leads a mostly unproven unit moving forward. Wake has some issues on the defensive side, but it catches a break here in Week 1. Wake Forest is led by Jamie Newman and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal tonight as well. 

The pick: This is a “FIRST HALF” “money line” selection. I think Wake is going to find a way to get the job done in the first half. The Demon Deacons’ core group remains on both sides of the ball and I believe that’s going to translate into early success on the field of play. 

Wake Forest (vs. Utah St) 1st Half Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: The Utes are favored to win the Pac-12 Championship tho shear, with 15 returning starters from last years team. The Utes get the job done with a suffocating defense which has all four defensive linemen returning from a rushing defense which led the conference with just 1003 YPG. The Utes also have an experienced offense, with QB Tyler Huntley back under center, along with RB Zack Moss. 

The pick: BYU had a 20-point third-quarter lead over Utah a year ago, but it wound up losing 35-27 in the end. The Cougars have lost eight in a row in this series. BYU is once again led by QB Zach Wilson. The secondary for the Cougars took a hit with both Chris Wilcox and Troy Warner injured in camp. BYU has to keep Utah honest, so look for the home side to try and establish its run game throughout. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it.

Utah/BYU UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Arizona State won’t be looking past Kent State here with what is expected to be a “wide open” Pac 12 South. Utah is the fav, but the Sun Devils will be pushing the pace from start to finish after watching Arizona blow its opener in Hawaii last weekend. Arizona actually finished second in the south last year, 7-6 overall and 5-4 in conference action. ASU has a tough matchup at No 18 Michigan State in Week 3, making this non-conference contest vs. the lowly Flashes that much more important. 

The pick: Kent State has zero bowl wins in its 99 year history. The Flashes were 1-7 in MAC action and 2-10 overall. Over the last six year they haven’t had a better record than 4-8. Ken State is led by Woody Barrett, who is a true dual threat. However, the tandem of QB Jayden Daniels and RB Eno Benjamin is going to prove to be too much for this porous Kent State defense to handle today in my opinion. Lay the points and expect a complete blowout.

Arizona St 10* play

The set-up: Outright upset? It’s not out of the realm of possibility at all in my opinion. After finishing 4-17 in 2017, the Gators went 10-3 in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach. That included a win over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. While QB Feleipe Franks is back under center for Florida, the big question mark for the Gators (and I think it’s significant in Week 1), is that there are four new starters on the offensive line. 

The pick: Miami was just 7-6 last year. Manny Diaz is now the head coach for the Hurricanes and he went out and grabbed a top play-caller in Dan Enos. Jarren Williams beat out N’Kosi Perry and Tate Martell for the starting QB position for the home side. Williams had two of the ACC’s top receivers in Coral Gables and buffalo transfer KJ Osborn. The uncertain up front for Florida makes the Hurricanes the correct call in Week 1 in my opinion. Grab the points.

Miami Florida 10* play

The set-up: The story lines are well known. The Rams are the up and coming West Coast team that’s backed by a high-powered offense, while the Patriots are one of the most storied franchises in history. I’ve just never been fully convinced by this year’s version of the Patriots. Tom Brady and company beat the Chiefs at home earlier in the year, so the fact that they won last week doesn’t come as a huge surprise despite being the underdog. LA got blasted for 45 points in a loss to New Orleans earlier in the year, but the Rams’ defense came up huge in the 26-23 OT NFC Conference Championship victory. I simply feel that the Rams’ suddenly improving defense, combined with the “one, two” punch of Goff and Gurley will prove to be too much for Bill Belichick.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England 2-3 ATS this year already after two or more straight victories ATS, while LA is 3-1 ATS this year after two or more straight wins vs. the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter.

10* play

The set-up: If you’re betting this game, then you probably don’t need the “overview” of this game. These teams and their strengths/weaknesses are well known by even the most casual NFL fan. The Patriots of course are the most storied team in the league and QB Tom Brady is a lock for the hall of fame. The Patriots rolled to a 41-28 win over the Chargers at home last weekend, but I think they’ll have their hands full in this difficult road venue. The Chiefs smashed the Colts 31-13 at home and after falling 43-40 in New England back on October 18th, I believe they’ll get their revenge here. I’ve never been fully convinced of the Patriots this year and overall from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up great for Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (50 passing TD’s in the regular season!) and the hungry home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

10* Chiefs. 

The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I love the surging Eagles to catch the Saints a little “flat footed” after their week off. Philadelphia once again defied the odds last weekend with a win in Chicago, as the Bears banged a FG off the cross bar as time expired for the victory. New Orleans went 13-3 in the regular season, but I think that “rest” will lead to “rust” here. The Eagles have been in must win mode for weeks now and that mentality, along with the experience from actually winning the Super Bowl last season, will once again keep this game extremely competitive in my opinion. While the Eagles’ offense dealt with plenty of issues this year, the defense was once again a strength and I think the unit is an overlooked factor here. Note as well that this is an in-season “revenge” game, as Philly was destroyed 48-7 in New Orleans back in Week 11. 

The pick: Nick Foles is under center this time for the Eagles though and I think the experience and momentum that he brings to the table is big as well. Take it for what you will as well, but Philly is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after four or more SU victories, while New Orleans is just 3-4 ATS as a home favorite this season and and just 1-4 ATS following a divisional contest. I won’t call for the outright, but look for this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Andrew Luck and the Colts have sure looked impressive over the last month, but I believe their story comes to and tonight. The Chiefs can’t play a lick of defense, but they haven’t had to with their dynamic offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, who set offensive records this year. With a week off to focus and game-plan though, I absolutely expect the Chiefs’ to also “step up” their game defensively as well. Indianapolis averaged 27.1 PPG, while allowing 21.5. The Chiefs averaged 35.3 PPG though and allowed 26.3. 

The pick: Mahomes though is the difference maker in my opinion. He finished with 5,097 passing yards with a sharp 50/12 TD/INT. Take it for what you will as well, but despite the Colts recent “up-tick” in play, they’re still only 14-17 ATS in their last 31 as an underdog, while Kansas City is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 after scoring 30 points or more in its last game. In my estimation, everything points to the Colts running out gas this weekend. I’m laying they points.

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The set-up: I won with Alabama last year and I think the Tide are going to roll again this season as well. This is the fourth straight year these teams have faced each other in the big game. Last year the Tide won 24-6. Clemson does come in off a nice 30-3 win over the Irish last Saturday, but the step up in competition on both sides of the ball will prove to be too much again for the Tigers again in my estimation. Clemson freshman QB Trevor Lawrence looked solid with 327 yards passing, three TD’s and no INT’s. The Tigers are no slouches defensively either, ranked fifth in allowing just 12.9 PPG. The Tide pulled away for a tougher than expected 45-34 win over Oklahoma last weekend. QB Tua Tagovailoa had 318 yards passing and four TD’s. The Tide dominate on both sides of the ball though, ranked second with 47.7 PPG and 12th in yards allowed per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 1-4 ATS this year in non-conference games, while Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after falling to cover the spread in two of its last three games. This has and likely always will be a “bad matchup” for Clemson. Lay the points.

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The set-up: While Seattle won a lower-scoring 24-13 contest at home over the Cowboys back on September 23rd, I believe this time around we’ll see a much more wide open “shootout.” Both teams have made leaps and strides since the early weeks, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for nearly 1,500 yards, which allowed Dak Prescott to find his game again. The late season acquisition of Amari Cooper was also a huge boost for the Dallas offense late in the year. Seattle veteran QB Russell Wilson put together arguably his best ever campaign and he also benefited greatly from a strong run game, which finished No. 1 in the league. From a situational stand point in my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in five of eight this year as an underdog, while Dallas as seen the total go “over” in five of eight at home and in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 45 points. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

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The set-up: Two teams that are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and up and down the line collide in the Sugar Bowl in Atlanta on Tuesday night and I’m expecting a war until the final moments. Georgia comes into this one still hung over and miserable after its crushing defeat in the SEC Championship game to Alabama. This is a consolation prize for the Bulldogs, while Texas will be looking to make the most of this moment, having not been in a New Year’s Six bowl game since 2014. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the underdogs in my opinion (note that Texas head coach Tom Herman is 12-2-1 ATS as an underdog, with nine outright victories.) 

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Georgia is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a two weeks or more layoff and as a ten points or more favorite, while Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine after a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Grab the points.

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The set-up: UCF enters at 12-0 and while it may leave here with a blemish on its record, I expect the Golden Knights to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Despite losing starting QB McKenzie Milton to injury, UCF would still go on to post a two TD win over Memphis. LSU comes in off a deflating loss to Texas A&M in its latest outing. In fact, the Tigers would play through seven OT’s,but still come up short vs. the Aggies. Players could barely stand by the end of the game they were so exhausted. 

The pick: The Knights looked just fine with Darriel Mack under center in their win over Memphis, throwing for 348 yards and two TD’s. Take it for what you will as well, but the Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog, while LSU is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Two teams with a ton of momentum collide in the Gator Bowl from Jacksonville Florida on Monday night and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. NC State enters on a three-game win streak over Louisville, UNC and ECU, while Texas A&M also posted three straight wins to end the year over Ole Miss, UAB and LSU. NC State will be leaning heavily on QB Ryan Finley here, and he has 3,789 passing yards along with 24 TD’s. The Aggies weakness on defense is against the pass, allowing 262.7 YPG. Clearly Finley will be given the “green light” to air it out from start to finish. The Aggies are also down several defenders, including safety Donovan Wilson. The Aggies feature a potent offensive attack as well, featuring dynamic back Trayveon Williams, who had 1,524 rushing yards and 15 major scores.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NC State has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine non-conference road games as an underdog in the 2.5 to 9.5 points range. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Missouri was 8-4 in regular season play, but just 4-4 in SEC action. Oklahoma State squeaked into the Bowls with a 6-6 regular season record, including going 3-6 in the Big 12. Overall the Tigers are averaging 36.9 PPG and they’re allowing 24.4. Missouri QB Drew Lock finished with 3,125 passing yards and a 25:8 TD/INT. Oklahoma State took the foot off the gas in its final game after securing bowl eligibility in its second to last game of the season in an impressive 45-41 win over WVU. QB Taylor Cornelius had 3,642 passing yards and a 28:11 TD/INT.

The pick: The Cowboys’ offense is the difference maker for me in this one though. Oklahoma State averages just under 500 total yards per game and 38.4 points. Overall they’re allowing 32.4, but with extra time off to prepare, I definitely expect Oklahoma State to keep this one competitive. Take it for what you will as well, but OKS is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Missouri is only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. Grab the points.

10* BOWL GAME OF YEAR

The set-up: Stanford comes in on top form having won three straight. Pittsburgh comes in a bit deflated in my opinion though after falling to Clemson in the ACC Championship. Stanford’s final win of the year came over California. Pittsburgh relies on a strong run game and defense. Stanford does as well, but an injury to star RB Bryce Love shifted the focus of the offense this year to QB KJ Costello, who had 3,435 passing yards. 

The pick: The Cardinal closed strong and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Note that Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine bowl games. Pittsburgh had a ton of momentum, but the humbling loss to Clemson carries over (note that the Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.) Lay the points.

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The set-up: With a playoff spot up for grabs, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number sooner, rather than later. The Colts come in off a thrilling 28-27 come from behind home win over the Giants last Sunday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that they can’t carry that momentum over here as well. The Titans posted a 25-16 home win over the Giants last weekend. Overall the Colts average 26.8 PPG and they allow 21.2. The Titans average 19.5 PPG and they allow 18. In the first meeting this year though, Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 297 passing yards and three TD’s in a 28 point win.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 after playing at home, while Tennessee has seen the total go “over” in five of its last six in trying to revenge a loss where an opponent scored 28 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Win or lose, the Bears are in the playoffs. Chicago does have a lot to play for here, as a victory today and a San Francisco win will earn it a bye into the divisional round of the playoffs. The Vikes though need a victory here, or there done. If they win though, then they’re in. The entire season of turmoil can be put behind them with one big winning effort and that’s exactly what I’m expecting to see happen. If the Bears go down early, one has to wonder how long they’ll try to keep up the fight? Already assured a spot, clearly this one “means more” to Minnesota. “It is going to be a heightened sense of urgency. For us, playoffs have already started,” Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer assessed at his Wednesday press conference. “We know that we have to win this game in order to get into them. There has to be heightened sense of energy and focus and study time,” he added. “You have to make sure that your bodies are rested and understand it is going to be a physical football game on Sunday.”

The pick: Note as well that Chicago is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog, while Minnesota is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: The Eagles need to win this game, and have the Vikings lose to sneak into a wild card spot. Clearly the only thing that Philadelphia can control is its performance on the field of play today, so with that in mind, I expect the defending champs to continue their late season surge and to leave the Nation’s capital with a convincing victory. The Eagles have been “re-born” with Nick Foles under center, who had four TD passing in last week’s come from behind win over the Texans. Washington would love to play spoiler, but it’s hard to imagine it mustering up much energy this weekend, after last week’s 25-16 listless setback to the Titans, their fifth loss in their last six games, officially eliminated it from contention. Can anyone say letdown spot?!

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Redskins are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records. Whether they make it into the playoffs or not is yet to be seen, but in my opinion everything definitely points towards a lop-sided destruction for the visitors. Lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: The Browns are looking to play spoiler and they come in with plenty of momentum. Outright victory?! It’s not out of the question! In fact, Cleveland already upset the Ravens at home 12-9 in OT earlier in the year. Browns’ rookie QB Baker Mayfield had 284 passing yards and three TD’s vs. the Bengals last week. Cleveland’s defense dominated as well, giving up just 209 total yards. Note that Cleveland has in fact won five of six overall. The Ravens are the better team on paper, but I think they get pushed to the brink here after upset win over the Chargers in LA last weekend. 

The pick: The Ravens have struggled against the division as well, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the AFC North. Note that Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home as well. The Browns on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in the last six after an ATS win. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is the finale for the New York Giants. The Cowboys posted a 27-20 home win per the Bucs in their latest action, while New York fell 28-27 to the Colts last week. The Cowboys have already clinched a wild card, but I think the value still lies with the visitors. Dallas posted a 20-13 home win over New York back in Week 2. The Dallas defense is a difference maker here as it ranks fourth in the NFL, allowing only 19.3 PPG. Giants’ QB Eli Manning won’t be throwing to Odell Beckham Jr, who is done for the season. Last week the Giants allowed 357 passing yards. Overall New York allows 25.1 PPG and it averages just 22.3. 

The pick: Despite both Cowboys’ offensive stars’ Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot likely to see limited time in this one, the visitors are still the deeper team. The Cowboys’ defense (as stated above), is also a difference maker for me here. Grab the points.

8* play

The set-up: The Irish are 12-0 and the Tigers are 13-0. This is the Cotton Bowl, but the winner of this will move on to face either Oklahoma or Alabama in the National Championship Game. Notre Dame had to hold on for dear life in its regular season finale vs. USC, while Clemson easily steamrolled Pittsburgh in its ACC Championship title. Both teams feature elite defenses and I believe they’ll “steal the show” in this one. 

The pick: Each team will be trying to establish its run game throughout while on offense. And take it row what you will, but Notre Dame has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten after allowing 280 or more passing yards in its previous game and in four of its last five neutral site games, while Clemson has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last nine neutral site affairs on a three weeks or more lay off. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. The Cavs come in with zero momentum after losing three of their last four, including to Virginia Tech most recently. The Gamecocks upset the Wolverines in last year’s Outback Bowl and they won their final game of the year over Akron (28-3.) “You get a bunch of bowl gear, and if you lose the game, you damn sure don’t want to wear any of it,” SC coach Will Muschamp said recently. “I haven’t put anything on from the Birmingham Bowl, I’ll tell you that. …When you win the bowl game, it just makes everybody feel better about what’s going on, where the program is headed. …Our guys understand that coming off a win gives you a little more confidence in your program about where you are. But the 2018 team will close its book in Charlotte.” Virginia opened at 6-2, but the Cavs have stumbled unbelievably down the stretch and I think that carries over here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. Virginia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing on three or more weeks rest on a neutral field. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: No one expected the Orange to finish 9-3 overall and go 5-1 in their last six, but now they’ll look to continue to defy the odds and carry that momentum over into the Camping World Bowl. WVU comes in off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma and it’ll be without starting QB Will Grier, who will skip to focus on the draft. That just means that it’s “next man up” for the Mountaineers. And that next man is Jack Allison, who now has a golden opportunity to cement his role next year. WVU is loaded with other offensive weapons though and the Mountaineers will be hungry to finish up strong as well. From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Syracuse has seen the total go “over” the number in five of seven as a favorite already this year, while WVU has seen the total go “over” in five of six already this season when the total is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: I think this one will sneak “over” the number once it’s all said and done. This is the Texas Bowl from NRG Stadium in Houston. Vandy became eligible by winning its final two games of the year over Ole Miss and Tennessee. Baylor’s also looking to cap a 6-6 season a high note after it broke a two-game skid with a bowl eligibility victory over Texas Tech back on November 24th. On offense, Vanderbilt will be leaning on Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who posted 1,001 rushing yards and ten TD’s on 144 carries this season. Baylor is susceptible against the run as well, allowing 172.8 rushing yards per game. Vandy also has a steady presence under center in Kyle Shurmur, who finished with 2,844 yards and 23 passing TD’s. After only one victory last season, clearly the Bears are very happy to be back bowling this year. Baylor’ QB Charlie Brewer finished with 2,635 passing yards and and 17 TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vanderbilt has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four when playing with two weeks rest, while Baylor has seen the total go “over” in its last two non-conference games. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Two 7-5 teams collide in the Pinstripe Bowl on Thursday night and I’m expecting an all out war until the final whistle. Last year Wisconsin beat Miami in the Orange Bowl and I think a repeat performance is in the cards here as well. Note that this game is being played at Yankee Stadium and in three road games in relatively cold weather against Virginia, Georgia Tech and BC, the Hurricanes managed just 48 total points in those ones. Miami has a great defense, but the offense was middle of the road in averaging only 374.6 YPG. At 4-4 in the ACC, this was considered a poor year for Miami. Wisconsin finished 5-4 in the Big 10 West. The Badgers rely on a strong run game on offense and an above average defense which allows just 358.8 YPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while Miami is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven bowl games and only 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Big Ten. Grab the points.

8* play

The set-up: In what is expected to be a very low-scoring defensive battle, I like the Horned Frogs to pull away down the stretch for the victory. TCU was 3-5, but it closed the season strong by winning three of its final four, including a 31-24 home win over OK State in its regular season finale to make it to 6-6. I think the Frogs carry that momentum over here. Cal on the other hand maybe peaked too early, as it had won four of five before a loss to Stanford in its finale (a disastrous 10-6 setback.) Cal averages 22.8 PPG and it allows 21.2. TCU average 24.7 PPG and it allows 24.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cal is just 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games, while TCU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a win in which it scored 30 points or more and following a two weeks or more break. Play on the Horned Frogs.

10* play

The set-up: I think the Yellow Jackets’ option attack will prove to be too much for the Gophers to keep up to down the stretch in this one. Georgia Tech ended the year with a loss to Georgia, finishing 7-5 overall, while Minnesota was 6-6, managing to gut out the sixth win with a very satisfying victory over rival Wisconsin. Can anyone say letdown spot? In fact, that victory over the Badgers is much bigger than a win here could possibly mean. Georgia Tech couldn’t finish with an upset in its finale, but it had signature victories of its own over Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but GT is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Minnesota is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: Two teams playing out their respective seasons collide on Monday night. If these clubs could have a “do over,” they’d clearly both jump on it. Regardless, I think the Broncos will do just enough to gut out the win and cover. The Raiders have nothing to play for here and another loss will only help them in the draft next year. Raiders’ hired Jon Gruden on the off-season last year and his first season has been a disaster. Broncos’ head coach Vance Joseph is expected to be fired after his Week 17 matchup with the Chargers, but he’s not going down without a fight: “Absolutely. We want to win,” Joseph said on Monday. “These next two games are important for us to finish the right way. That part is very important to me. It’s about winning. That’s what it’s about. It’s not about losing, it’s about winning. That’s very important to our football team and our coaches.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is already 2-0 ATS this year after a loss by 3 points or less, while Oakland is a terrible 4-8 ATS as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.

10* play

The set-up: From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt that this one sets up as a high-scoring shootout. The Chiefs come in off a tough 29-28 home loss to the Chargers on Thursday. The Chiefs remain the highest scoring team in the league, but they’re in the bottom third defensively. KC needs to win this game to keep pace for the top spot in the AFC. The Hawks also come in off a tough 26-23 OT loss in San Francisco last weekend. Both teams feature a couple of the best QB’s in the league in Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Each will be given the green light here today obviously. As stated off the top, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but KC has seen the total go “over” the number in six of seven on the road already this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: The Rams look ripe for the picking here in my opinion. LA comes in off a 30-23 home loss to Philadelphia. Arizona was crushed 40-14 by Atlanta last weekend, but it plays with revenge here after falling 34-0 in LA in Week 2. 

The pick: LA has in fact lost back-to-back games, falling 15-6 in Chicago in Week 14, followed by last week’s upset as well. Arizona would love nothing more than to continue to play spoiler. The home side won’t be rolling over. Take it for what you will as well, but the Cards are still 3-1 ATS vs. the division this year. I’m grabbing the points.

8* play

The set-up: Carolina still has a shot at one of the wild card spots in the NFC, but the team just shut down starting QB Cam Newton after six straight losses and I think the Falcons, who broke a three-game slide with a win over the Cardinals last weekend, will like nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention, but the core group will be looking to end the season on a positive note and taking out their hated rival will go a long way in soothing the disgruntled fan base back in ATL. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 off a home victory, while Carolina is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing on MNF. Lay the points and look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons to deliver the knock out blow.

10* play

The set-up: The defending champs continue to defy the odds and keep their playoff hopes alive. The Texans posted a 29-22 road win over New York and it still has a two game lead over Indy for the division title. Philadelphia rallied for a 30-23 upset win over the Rams last weekend and it’ll need to win today as well to keep pace in the Wild card race. 

The pick: The Eagles’ defense remains a difference maker and I think the unit will be once again this week as well. Additionally note that Houston is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as a road underdog, while Philadelphia is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite. Look for Nick Foles and company to defend home turf.

8* play

The set-up: Buffalo enters with a 10-3 record, while Troy finished 9-3. Buffalo averaged 34.8 PPG, behind a strong rushing offense which finished 45th in the country. The Bulls were above average defensively, allowing just 24.7 PPG, ranked 48th (Jared Patterson and Kevin Marks had 1,751 rushing yards combined). Troy only averaged 29.8 PPG, but it made up for it on the other side of the ball by allowing only 21.2 (ranked 23rd.) The Trojans had to make a shift at QB when No. 1 Kaleb Barker went down with injury and backup Sawyer Smith was average at best, finishing with a 10/6 TD:INT over seven games. Troy’s offense revolves around RB BJ Smith, who posted at least 100 rushing yards in five of his last eight games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after having lost two of its last three games, while Troy has seen the total go “under” in four of its last five following a two weeks or more period of rest. This number is high, play the “under.” 

8* play

The set-up: Washington is still in the playoff hunt after holding on for a win against the Jaguars in Week 15, but the Redskins’ chances are still slim, especially considering the significant injuries. The Titans have won three straight over the Jets, Jags and Giants and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here as well. Not only are the Skins down to their third string QB, but CB Joshua Holsey was lost for the season in last week’s narrow victory. Tennessee on the other hand is getting steady play from QB Marcus Mariota, while getting superb play from RB Derrick Henry. The Titans though are now No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense after allowing just one TD over their past 12 quarters of play.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after allowing 14 points or less in its last game, while Tennessee is 4-2 ATS at home this year and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10*

The set-up: Mike Norvell is looking to lead the 8-5 Memphis Tigers to their first bowl win since 2014. Norvell has taken his team to two other bowl games, but he’s come up short each time. Wake Forest finished 6-6 and it could just be happy to be here after winning both the Military Bowl in 2016 and the Belk Bowl last year. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key offensive players. Wake Forest is likely without the services of Greg Dortch, who led the ACC with 1,750 all purpose yards, but who suffered a finger injury in the Deacons’ 59-7 rout of Duke in their finale (if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% health). Memphis averages 43.6 PPG, but it’ll be without star RB Darrell Henderson, who will move onto the NFL now. Regardless, the Tigers are still loaded with talent and I have a hard time seeing the Deacons keeping pace down the stretch.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while Wake Forest is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams above the .500 mark. Lay the points and expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams return to bowl action after missing last year. Both teams have a freshman QB under center today. Both were forced into the starters role in the middle of the campaign for different reasons. WMU is averaging 33.2 PPG, while allowing 33.2. Kaleb Eleby helped WMU end a three-gam losing streak with a 28-21 win over NIU in the regular season finale. Eleby finished with 285 passing yards. BYU is averaging only 25.4 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end, allowing just 21.7. Zach Wilson finished with 1,261 yards passing with a 10/6 TD:INT over six starts for the Cougars. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest, while WMU is 8-4 ATS in is last 12 following a home win. This one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: South Florida opened the season 7-0, but it then lost five straight to finish 7-5. With a chance to erase the disappointing second half with a third straight bowl victory, I think the Bulls will pull off the minor upset today. Marshall last played on December 1st, a 41-20 loss to the Hokies which snapped a three-game win streak. A three week layoff isn’t going to help the Herds’ chemistry. USF will be leaning heavily on the RB duo of Jordan Cronkrite and Johnny Ford, shoe combined for over 1,800 rushing yards and 17 TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite and already 0-2 ATS this year when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest and 3-1 ATS in its last four following a loss of 17 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: SDSU lost its final three games, but it comes in healthy to this one and it’s loaded with talent and experience. The bottom line is I think that the Aztecs are the more “complete” team through all three phases. Ohio comes in off two straight wins to end the regular season over Buffalo and Akron. The problem for the Bobcats’ high-powered ground attack, is that SDSU’s strength on the defensive side of the ball is against he run. In fact the Aztecs rank fourth nationally in stopping the run. In total SDSU allows just 94.5 YPG rushing. SDSU death with injury issues all year to key offensive pieces, but they’re both back healthy here (QB Christian Chapman and RB Juwan Washington). These two will have something to prove in this bowl.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SDSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a double digit fav, while Ohio is only 3-5 ATS in its last eight after a win by 21 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. UAB won the C-USA with a 10-3 record, while NIU was 8-5 overall. The Blazers ten wins were a school record and UAB got the job done with stifling defensive play. UAB has a question mark with its starting QB AJ Erdely, but the strength on offense is the run game behind Spencer Brown anyways. The UAB offense would only post 30 points four times this year, but the defense is allowing just 17.3 PPG. NIU also relies on its run game to generate offense, led by Tre Harbison. The Huskies averaged only 20.7 PPG and they allowed just 21.5. 

The pick: Two defensive minded teams which rely on the run game collide in this one. Also note that UAB has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five then the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while NIU has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 15 when the total is set in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play