Memphis has started their season winning their first two home games including a week 1 15-10  victory vs Ole Miss and an easy 55-24 victory vs a FCS opponent Southern last week. Now in a let down spot vs a tough Sun belt opponent South Alabama Im betting covering this number will not come easily. MEMPHIS is 1-9 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.MEMPHIS is 4-15 ATS  after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 and is 13-33 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.

Memphis is just 3-16 SU in their L/19 road openers.

Play on South Alabama to cover 

The Mounties are coming off a 38-7 beat down  at Missouri  and now are being given a home dog classification by the lines-makers vs a over rated NC State football program that just got finished beating up on two sub par Carolina programs(East and Coastal). I know that West Virginia might be down a few notches this season with just 10 returning starters, and have a new head coach, but this line is over blown thanks to recency bias thus giving us value according to my projections. Note: West Virginia 20-1 L/21 at home vs non conference opposition.

NC STATE is 8-22 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W VIRGINIA) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 32-9 ATS L/27seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W VIRGINIA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Temple and Maryland have  alot of  similarities this season. New head coaches and offensive systems. Inexperienced top tier  talent everywhere. According to my power ranking projections both all match up very well, and Im not going to be swayed by Maryland 2 lopsided wins in the first couple of weeks of this season.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 74-33 L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on the Temple Owls to cover 

Tonight Im betting a talented blue collar group in Kansas State under new HC Chris Klieman, will give a over rated Mississippi State program a much closer battle than many might anticipate. Kansas State annihilated their first two opponents, and  while the Bulldogs also won their first two games they were far from spectacular, and with starting QB Tommy Stevens enduring a shoulder injury last week and backup QB Garrett Shrader expected  to start  further credence is added to my call .( Even if Sharder starts Im still expect KState to play a jack in the box role today metaphorically speaking-suprise suprise )

 Mississippi State is in a look ahead revenge mode for their  SEC season opener against Kentucky next week and may not be fully focused here, giving us value with the dog.

New Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman, has won 23 away games in a row and knows how to get his troops prepared in the visitors role. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 43-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (KANSAS ST) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 93-47 ATS L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Kansas State Wildcats to cover 

Lovie Smiths Illinois is up-trending, with two straight wins to start their campaign but Im betting they will have their hands full with a Eastern Michigan side that is 21-7-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road. Meanwhile, Illinois is  just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus an opponent from the MAC and still don't have a winning culture in place as is evident by going 13-57 Su  in regular season games over the last 12 seasons. Yes, Eastern Michigan lost to Kentucky last week 38-17 and failed to cover as 16 point dogs,  but this hard nosed never say die group deserves our respect as does the football program that has gone 12-1 ATS L/13 vs .500 or better opposition and that is 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

 Tonights tilt at NRG Stadium, the home of the Texans will see the vast majority of the crowd rooting for Houston. which Im betting will give them a edge.

It must be noted that Washington States HC   Leach is  just 2-7 ATS in weekday games and 5-14-2 ATS going against  .500 or better non-conference opposition . Leach is also 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached since 1992.

With a top tier coach Dana Holgorsen, who stands 17-1 SU in non-conference games. and a Houston Cougars football program that are 13-1-1 ATS as 2 or more points underdogs we have  a viable side to back here tonight on ESPN. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games are 64-27 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - porous defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 52-21 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Cougars to cover 

Mac Brown return as  coach of North Carolina was impressive as he took out rival South Carolina.  Now coming home his young men are feeling confident, which the same cannot be said, about a Miami Fl side that was run over by a speedy Florida D in game one losing by a 24-20 count. Last week the Gamecocks had just 270 total yards and went 3 for 13 on third down and Im betting they can slow the Canes in this spot.  Meanwhile, N.Carolina;s new Offensive coordinator Phil Longo, previously of Ole Miss knows how to fire up a offence with different looks and Im betting he has this Canes D on their heels here today. Possible upset in the making , which makes getting points here a viable investment opportunity.  HC Mac  Brown’s career numbers  are 14-0 last fourteen home openers) and 4-0 ATS as a conference home dog against opposition coming off a loss like the Miami Canes. 

Play on N.Carolina Tarheels to cover 

Western Michigan has one the most talented experienced returning groups in the nation ( production wise) and won't be intimidated by the Michigan State Spartans. Considering look ahead tilts to Arizona State and Northwestern on deck over the next couple of weeks, Dantonio and company may not be fully focused on this up trending opponent which gives us value taking the underdog here. 

The Spartans are just 3-14 ATS L/17 at home in non conference action and 0-5 ATS L5 as 14 or more favourites.

MLB Road underdogs (W MICHIGAN) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and  48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

Wyoming according to my projections is being over rated here vs Texas State. Giving us value taking the points . 

Texas State had the No. 5 defense in the Sun Belt Conference in 2018, allowing 383.9 yards per game. Almost everyone returns this year and should continue to uptrend. With new  HC Jake Spavital’s at the helm of the team the offence should also see improvement. The old ball coach has proven himself over and over again with seven previous coaching stops, his last three as an offensive coordinator for Power 5 schools.Texas State trails 2-1 in the all-time series, but the hosting team has won each game. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here again this week vs Wyoming. 

Bohl is 6-15 ATS  in September games as the coach of WYOMING

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS ST) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas State to cover 

Florida International-was crushed last week vs Tulane 42-14, while Western Kentucky came out flat and was upset loss vs  FCS Central Arkansas 35-28 as 10 point favs. 

There is a new HC in Western Kentucky as Helton takes over and gets 10 returning starters to build with. It might not seem like it after getting upset by a FCS side, last week but  returning production and S&P+ projections for telling  the Hilltoppers to improve to 101st overall,  with a 6-6 record brings hope . With all 5 starters back on the O-line Im expecting bigger and better things from this Hilltoppers offence as the season progresses, starting today vs Florida International team that allowed 42 points to Tulane side that struggled mightily on offence last season.

FLA INTERNATIONAL is 9-21 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W KENTUCKY) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 48-16 ATS  L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on W.Kentucky to cover 

Georgia State pulled of an enormous upset last week beating Tennessee in what will probably be the biggest upset of the year. Now in an equally enormous let down situation Georgia State is being over rated in this spot on what my own projections make a bloated line giving us value backing Furman getting points. It must be noted that Furman runs a triple option attack, and last year Georgia State rush D was atrocious and allowed huge chunks of ground yardage on individual plays from scrimmage and today their inadequacies will be exposed.

Play on Furman to cover

Maine  is as tough as nails defensively behind their now infamous “Black Hole” defense that returns almost all their starters.  The Black Bears  rush D, was of the top tier variety last season on the FCS and they will once again be hard to run against and more than prepared to slow down Georgia Southern’s triple option attack. Meanwhile, with Georgia Southerns junior quarterback Shai Werts is  banged up after last weeks run in with LSU and less than 100% the Eagles are being over rated.  Bottom line here this is a nasty FCS group that Georgia Southern will face here today and a win wont come easily for them, thus Im recommending we take the points.

Play on the Maine Black Bears to cover 

UCLA still looks like its going to be while before they morph into a better team as last week they  managed just 218 yards and 14 points against  Cincinnati. Now this week off a tough as nails San Diego State D, that shut out their opening week opponent , the Bruins will once again having issues putting points on the board. The Bruins Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson looked like a deer lost in headlights at times in week one, and his PTSD experience of fumbling twice and throwing two interceptions should spark more atrophy here.On the flip side   I know San Diego State Quarterback Ryan Agnew did not look good last week and his top tier running back Juwan Washington on a tender ankle had just 55 yards  last week in their 6-o win but, I don't think they wanted to open their play book and give the Bruins anything to look at. This week will be different. 

Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Aztecs are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Bruins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.Bruins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 43-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Jimbo Fisher has been competitive in previous tilts vs Dabo Swinney. Last season, Texas A&M gave Clemson fits in a a 28-26 victory by the Tigers in which the Aggies had more total yards.   Texas A&M head coach has beaten Clemson or stayed within 10 points in a loss in previous recent meetings. This Texas A&M team is built to stand tall against teams like Clemson and Im betting we have value taking points here this week.

TEXAS A&M is 12-1 ATS  after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. ( Texas A&M beat Texas St in week 1 at home)Fisher is 21-7 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. 

CFB road team (TEXAS A&M) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 40-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas A&M Aggies to cover 

Colorado won last year's meeting 33-28 in Lincoln and despite of Nebraska wanting revenge and  their stock in an up-trending mode Im betting the Buffaloes will be a hand full for them. The Huskers despite of always getting alot of public support have lost 7 straight road games and if they end their current negative run  Im betting it won't come easily. 

The Buffaloes smashed Colorado State last week 52-31. Note:Buffaloes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Buffaloes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 31-8 ATS L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 

Boise State after travelling out to the east coast and erasing a DD deficit for a win vs Florida State last week will now be in a letdown spot. Yes, it is the Broncos home opener, but according to my power rankings Marshall is the type of team that is built to stay competitive against this type of opponent via a already solid defence and offence that has enough returning starters to make some noise. 

Harsin is 0-7 ATS  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of BOISE ST. Harsin is 1-9 ATS  after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of BOISE ST. 

CFB Home favorites (BOISE ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 16-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 

 Texas  upset Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, 28-21 and since than Longhorns nation has been standing proud. .  However, with  starting QB Ehlinger  now having to deal with three of his starting offensive linemen gone  and  current group RBs banged up in camp as per reports Im betting the sledding could be a lot tougher than many might expect.    On defence the Longhorns have to replace three starting defensive linemen, two LBs and both starting CBs.  I know that Texas will be motivated to honour former RB Cedric Benson who passed a couple of weeks ago in a motorcycle accident, but covering the number here could still prove difficult considering the alliterations  this  football program will have to endure here early in the season. Meanwhile, HC Skip  Holtz remains a very good coach and  operates and  recruits a never say die group of kids that have endured  five  1-point losses over the last three seasons. Im betting he once again makes life difficult for an opponent, and gets us the cover.  It must be noted that Texas has failed to cover 19 of their L/27 as non conference favs while Holtz on the other hand  thrives in the underdog role cashing  (49 of the L/63 times for a 77% conversion rate for bettors).Holtz is  also 34-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in August.Bulldogs are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games.

Play on LA Tech to cover 

LSU's Orgeron is a well liked coach,  but from a bettors perspective his backers may not be all that fond of   him considering his 0-4 ATS record in his last four non-conference home games, and his  1-4 ATS record as a favorite of 21 or more points. It must also be noted last season, against SE Louisiana a lower tier football team, the Bayou Bengals  looked very average and unmotivated. Today a under rated Georgia Southern team off a 10 win campaign must  not be underestimated in their abilities to find a way to cover here today vs a behemoth SEC foe.HC Chad Lunsfords reinstatement of the power running game, made GSouthern dangerous and nothing changes today. The Eagles are 3-0 ATS all time vs SEC and have covered 5 of their L/6 as 20 point or more underdogs. With Texas on board for Oregeron and company, the Tigers full attention, might be lacking making them unreliable favs here despite of public perceptions. 

LSU is 0-6 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on  Georgia Southern to cover 

Pittsburgh's QB Kenny Pickett is a veteran quarterback and under rated and , his receiving corps is of the top tier variety and wont be intimidated by Virginia's experienced D. Meanwhile, on my over rated charts,Cav QB Bryce Perkins is key here, as he and his team are expected by most pundits to win their conference this season. But today things wont come easily vs a well coached Panthers team that has won 4 straight in this series grabs the cash.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

UTSA has bigger and better athletes, and despite of what Incarnate Word was able to do in a lower tier division their out of their league ( co champions and undefated in San Antonio) and should be pounded by the Roadrunners as this tilt progresses. No one is going to take UIW for granted , thus Im expecting an all out effort by UTSA, which makes this an easy lay.

Play on UTSA to cover 

Lobos are in a transition season with new dynamics and schemes and are expected to possibly highlight four QBs today. Needless to say their cohesiveness could be tested. Meanwhile, the Sam Houston BearKats come in nationally ranked, 22nd in the preseason poll by Stats FCS, and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover here vs a team like New Mexico. 

Lobos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.   Lobos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in August. Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Lobos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.v  Lobos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Play on Sam Houston to cover 

The public is all over Alabama but it must be noted that  HC Saban has been inconsistent as a large favorite  covering just 11 of 33 games when favored by 30 or more points. Meanwhile, Duke HC Cutcliffe is 15-3 SU lifetime in season openers with the three losses coming by an average of 5.56 ppg. 

 The Blue Devils return the top two rushers and the most experienced part  of their defense. abd look fairly solid and more than capable of being competitive. Meanwhile, Alabama loses Damien Harris and most of the offensive line and it must also be noted that this game is being played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where  QB Tagovailoa had a bad game while looking uncomfortable playing on that surface ,converting just t 10-of-25 passes  for just  165 yards and 2 interceptions against Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Could this environment trigger a PTSD event? Im betting it does . 

DUKE is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.DUKE is 24-8 ATS in games played on turf.

ALABAMA is 8-19 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.DUKE is 28-13 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.

Take the points with Duke to cover 

 Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Mississippi State Bulldogs delivered  8 wins   last season and  ranked No. 1 in the nation in defence and this season Im betting their offence chips in and makes this side very under rated. Meanwhile, the Ragin Cajuns despite of a top tier recruiting class and success last season in a 7 win campaign, are over matched here today. The Cajuns might be out looking for revenge for a  56-10  smash down last season to the Bulldogs, but Im betting they will fail as they make it 36 straight losses to a SEC school. Note: UL-Lafayette are  an ugly 0-28 ATS in their last 28 SU home losses versus lined opponents.

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 81-36 ATS L/27 seasons for a 69% covnersion rate for bettors.

Play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs to cover 

Toledo continues to recruit top tier offensive players as was  evident by  scoring at least 50 points in six games during their  2018 campaign, and something that will aid them covering here today . Meanwhile, Kentucky is a depleted team  with players going to the NFL and other departures that no longer make them a contender in the SEC.    Mark Stoops has his work cut out for him this season, and some serious regression is not out of the question. It must be noted as far as this matchup is involved the Wildcats are being over rated in my humble betting opinion. Note Kentucky is  1-7 ATS as home favourite the past two seasons, while the Rockets are 7-2 ATS  in road openers . The MAC owns a 9-0 ATS L/9 record  vs SEC  opposition. 

KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (TOLEDO) - poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 61-27 L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toledo Rockets to cover 

This bet is not so much about Lovie Smiths Illinois even though Im betting they will be significantly better this season, but this bet is rather about  the matchup discrepancies here today , that favor Illinois. The Zips have a completely new coaching staff, and only have a couple returning starters on the defensive side of the ball back,  and a new offensive scheme that will take time to be cohesive.I know the MAC has a reputation for doing well against the Big10 in the past, but today the Big 1o will dominate .

Illinois in their 4 wins last season averaged 39.5 ppg so they can score when in a groove and should prove even better this season. Overall from a historical standpoint it must also be noted  that Illini have won 21 straight home openers by an average of 24 points per game. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ILLINOIS) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 81-36 ATS  L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 

Last season the Michigan State Spartans ranked 127th in scoring nationally  and put up an average of 8 ppg in their final 4 tilts. It was a frikin embarrassment. However, Im betting they will be improved this season , but tonight they might not show off their improved attack and playbook options  as the Spartys have a  reputation for staring slowly  failing to cover 4 of their L/5 openers and are also 0-6 ATS as home chalk of more than 17 points.  Meanwhile, Tulsa behind  head man Phil Montgomery have really been bitten the by the injury bug the last couple of seasons, but have remained fairly competitive  behind a under rated D as they have eight one-possession losses,  Note:The Golden Hurricane were ranked eighth in the country in pass defense last season. With alot of experience returning this season and Montgomerys need to post some wins to save his job Im betting on him pulling out all the stops this season. Considering  Tulsa  has covered 6 of their L/7 ATS as a under dog of 20 or more points they get my support here vs what we can usually count on to be a disinterested  Mark Dantonio group.

Play on the Tulsa Canes to cover 

Army had a tremendous season in 2018, and some regression must be expected this around especially with their two top Full Backs gone, and a new defensive coordinator in the fold . But hey Art Monkin has done a great job with the Black Knights and they should be fine this season. However today they go against a very under rated Rice squad with a huge amount of returning experience in the lineup, and with some luck the Owls won't be as injury prone as last season ie ( 4 QBS played last year). Army because of their recent success is now a public team but because of this we are getting a decent line to bet into here with the underdog, especially considering that I highly doubt that Army will open up their  playbook this week with Jim Harbaughs Michigan up next. I also expect the Knights may not play their starters late into this tilt, which gives credence to back door cover opportunities if need be. Note: Rice HC Bloomgren has said he has been preparing for Army's Triple option since last February. 

Rice has cashed 10 of their L/15 as 20 point or more dogs. Army has failed to cover 15 of their L/24 as DD favorites( 38%). Army is 4-11 ATS L/15 season openers. 

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (ARMY) - good defense from last season - allowed 315 or less total yards/game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first two weeks of the season are 16-44 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against  73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rice Owls to cover 

Texas State Im betting is a under rated commodity here in game 1 vs respected   Texas A&M football program However, this Bobcats team is loaded with experienced  players  with 19 returning starters and the O-Line completely intact.  Meanwhile,  the Aggies, despite of a decent season last year, have to now endure a new batch of players on defence, having to replace 6 of 7 players in the front 7, which will effect them here today. With Clemson up next for Texas A&M concentrating on this matchup, could be difficult. Texas State has also been solid as an underdog of 20 or more points cashing 5 of their L/6 opportunities, and Im betting they don't roll over so easily here, and find the way to get us a cover on a almost 5 TD spread.

Bobcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in August.Aggies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.

Play on Texas State to cover 

Coach Chip Kelly has 19 returning starters in the lineup and come into this season with experience and momentum after outgunning 3 of their L/4 opponents last season. Meanwhile, the Bearcats despite of being fairly solid team  , are 0-4 ATS L/4 in non conference home games and according to my projections could get lit up by QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB  Joshua Kelley who could have a big day vs a D, that has lost their 3 top players from last season.  With instate rivals Ohio State on deck, we may not see the Bearcats fully focused and unreliable favs. 

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 

Both teams were of the top tier variety on the defensive side of the ball last season, with both ranking in the top-25 nationally for total defense. Im betting on more of the same this season, and for this particular battle to be won on the defensive side of the ball in the trenches. Look for Redshirt freshman QB Jarren Williams to do more than enough to get the Canes to the promised land and get us the cover. 

This is a huge instate non conference  rivalry game that Im betting will be hard fought, thus making getting points a value investment option. 

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in August.

Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

CFB road team vs. the money line (FLORIDA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 3-23 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate ( Average ppg differential clicks in at +12.5 ppg which makes this a strong ATS selection based on these above perimeters.)

Miami Fl to cover 

 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Alabama has gone 14-0 SU against the nation's No. 23 schedule while Clemson' is 14-0 record has come against the nation's No. 32-ranked schedule  Alabama has won 16 straight tilts  while Clemson has won 14 in-a-row. According to my data, and power rankings these teams are evenly matched from an overall perspective and Im betting the points will be golden here in the National Championship game. 

ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS  in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 rushing or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.Swinney is 11-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season as the coach of CLEMSON. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 38-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Clemson to cover 

FIESTA BOWL - State Farm Stadium - Phoenix, AZ

UCF has won 25 straight games, and what Im betting  to happen here is that despite of them going against a very strong SEC team, without their starting QB McKenzie Milton, they wont go down without a fight . Look for highly talented backup Darriel Mack who led his team to a 56-41 come from behind victory vs Memphis in the season finale to lead this team again, and for this very athletic and deep UCF group to get us the cover . With almost a month to prepare for the Bayou Tigers, Im very sure the Knights  will be very ready to compete. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LSU) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are just 13-42 ATS L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UCF to cover 

LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

We all know the Big 12 is all about offence, but when it counts there are teams like Oklahoma State that can be counted upon to make key stops. What Im betting here today is for the Cowboys to go toe toe and punch for punch with Missouri offensively, but in key junctures of the game to show their ability to stand tall. You have to remember Oklahoma State took on some extremely explosive offenses in Big 12 action  (ie Oklahoma ) and stood tall, losing by just one point 48-47 count, and have the capabilities to not only cover here but pull off the upset as more than TD dog. 

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.Cowboys are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game 

MISSOURI is 3-12 ATS  in December games since 1992.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

REDBOX BOWL - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Michigan State has shown a propensity to not to be able to the move the chains consistently against any team  for most of this season. Their games are ugly in the trenches affairs, and the Spartans are like vultures just waiting around for fumbles and turnovers in an effort to try to find the end zone. Im betting the trend continues and Oregon musters out a win vs my nomination for  the Ugly Betty football team of the year. 

MICHIGAN ST is 6-16 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and  10-28 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. 

OREGON is 30-9 ATS  L/39 after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half and  20-8 ATS after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oregon to cover 

ARIZONA BOWL - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ

The Red Wolves completed the 2018 regular season with an 8-4 overall record and as the Sun Belt Conference West Division co-champions.Nevada completed its regular season with a 7-5 overall record and finished tied for second in the Mountain West Conference’s West Division. My cross reference power rankings suggest that Arkansas State has the edge. 

 ARKANSAS ST is 12-3 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS ST) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Arkansas State to cover 

MUSIC CITY BOWL - Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN

Purdue got some very good news when Jeff Brohm turned down Louisville and stayed at Purdue , and he now gets a huge amount of respect from the kids he coaches, and Im now betting they will play hard for him in this tilt against the Tigers. The Purdue offense finished 14th in the country in yards per play at 6.53 and Im betting Auburns pedestrian attack will not be able to keep up. Look for QB David Blough  who  completed 66.6% of his passes, and he threw for 25 touchdowns to shine in this Bowl tilt and lead his team to a cover. 

PURDUE is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Purdue to cover 

This is essentially a home game for Baylor here  in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. With key WR Jalen Hurd out for the Bears, some might think their now not a viable choice here, but they would be mistaken, as the Bears have a couple of options at their disposal and ready to reset their look vs a Vanderbilt D, that has looked atrocious at times this season. 

Baylor HC Rhule is 10-2 ATS in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he ha coached and  29-15 ATS  as an underdog in all games he has coached. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BAYLOR) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 73-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Baylor

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

The Miami Hurricanes will face off against the Wisconsin Badgers in the 2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.A year ago, Miami went through the regular season at 10–2 before losing to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl and now revenge is on board. Miami after a mid season swoon,  went on to win its final two regular- season tilts against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh in dominating fashion, largely because of its defense that ranks No.2 in the nation in Total D.  With that said, Look for the Badgers passing game to stall vs an impressive Canes secondary and for their key mode of moving the chains RB Johnathon Taylor to find the sledding tough vs a staunch physical D. Meanwhile, Miami will find a way to score enough points here vs a inconsistent Wisconsin D and get us the win and cover. 

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI is 8-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Richt is 8-0 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Miami fl to cover 

CHEEZ-IT BOWL - Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ

Following a seven-win regular season that saw the Golden Bears rank among the best defensive teams in the country, the young men from Berkeley look like the matchup well vs TCU. The Golden Bears won four of their next five games with victories at Oregon State and against Pac-12 champion Washington starting the run and more than capable of upending a  inconsistent  and over rated TCU side. 

Cal has played twice in the game now known as the Cheez-It Bowl with victories in both contests and get the nod again.

TCU  is 12-26 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 3-11 ATS  in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.TCU is 0-6 ATS with rest or after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.

CALIFORNIA is 9-2 ATS  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on California to cover 

Troy plays a strong brand of hard nosed  defensive old school football that Im betting will give Buffalo's some times prolific offence problems.  That was the case when Buffalo lost the MAC Championship to N.Illinois another team that plays a similar type of football to Troy. 

Note: Troy has not allowed more than 21 points in its L/5 games. 

BUFFALO is 2-12 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

TROY is 8-0 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons

TROY is 7-0 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasonsTROY is 6-0 ATS  in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB team (BUFFALO) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28) after 7+ games, after a loss by 3 or less points are 14-39 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Troy to cover 

FRISCO BOWL - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

Ohio's Frank Solich has an explosive offensive team, but San Diego State despite of 3 consecutive losses to finish out their season are a side that must not be underestimated , especially with HC Rocky Long on the side lines. With that said, in a battle, that will feature the Aztecs’ No. 4 ranked rush defense (95 YPG and 2.7 YPR) and Ohio’s big time rushing offense (262 YPG and 6.1 YPR) I feel a stalemate type of game will be played with the points eventually proving to be golden. 

Long is 9-2 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450  or more yards/game as the coach of SAN DIEGO ST.SAN DIEGO ST is 11-2 ATS in road games after a loss by 3 or less points which happened in Hawaii In their last game of the season.

OHIO U is 1-10 ATS   L/11 in road games after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Play on SD State to cover 

 CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

I was little surprised at how this line opened, so I looked as deep  into this bowl game, and found no key injuries or news that would effect it. Georgia Southern is a very good team and own a 9-3 record compared to Eastern Michigan’s 7-5 recored. Yes, Eastern Michigan is a tough under rated team, but despite of being competitive don't have a killer instinct and consistently find ways to lose close games. Meanwhile,  Georgia Southern should have more of their fans here than  E.Michigan, because of the proximity of the location of this football game, and thus have more support in what will likely be a mostly empty stadium. Bottom line:

Georgia Southern is pound the ground type of offence , ranked 9th in the nation ( rush offence ) 260.8 ypg and  have an advantage vs E.Michigans, 93rd ranked rush D that allows an average   4.43 ypc, and 192.9 ypg. The Southern Eagles get my support here on a short line. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (E MICHIGAN) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

KSU has the third-longest active home winning streak in FCS at 15 games and is one of five programs with a winning streak of 10 or more games. QB Chandler Burks has started 36 consecutive games at QB and has led the Owls to a 31-5 (.861) record. He is also 17-1 as the starting QB inside Fifth Third Bank Stadium. If South Dakota State wins here today Im betting it won't come easily.

Take the points with Kennesaw State to cover 

BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

Thanks to Ohio State absolute obliteration of Michigan last week, 62-39, we have a nice value line to bet into backing Northwestern. When a team like Ohio State exerts that much emotional and irrational exuberance in one game, an emotional letdown scenario usually follows them into the next game. We all know that Ohio State has consistently played down to opponents this season, and that despite of their defence playing well last week, have showed themselves over and over again to be porous to say the least. Urban Meyers has failed to cover 5 straight as a DD conference favorite, while the Wildcats HC Pat Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS L/9 as a DD dog and overall 7-1 ATS in conference action this season. 

NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 2 seasons.NORTHWESTERN is 21-8 ATS  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog this season. 

HIO ST is 2-11 ATS after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 season.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NORTHWESTERN) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-17 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team ( 80%or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80% are 26-61 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

The dog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven Big Ten title games and Im betting the pup or cat if you wish grabs the cash again.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

Boise State won the last time these teams met  24-17 right here on the Blue Carpet back in mid November, thanks to  dominating that game in the final quarter . Im betting they use the momentum of their last meeting to keep on trucking here, and once again come out of this for their 11th straight victory at home in this series. With the said,Im betting  on Boise State capturing the MWC title  and more importantly getting the all important cover as short chalk .

HC Harsin is 7-0 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play in all games he has coached . 

Play on Boise State to cover 

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA 

This  is a rematch of last year’s National Championship game and its being  played on the same field . I felt Alabama was fortunate to get the win last season, and just got by the skin of their teeth in OT by 3 points thanks the heroics of Tide QB Tua Tagovailola. Now the Dawgs who are 6-1 ATS L/7 with SEC revenge and have cashed 6 straight times as underdogs in this series are the team I recommend backing as Georgia according to my rankings actually matchup well vs a side, that has yet to be tested this season. REVENGE , REVENGE. Georgia covers.

GEORGIA is 10-2 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Neutral field underdogs (GEORGIA) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Georgia to cover 

California  has been outgunned in 4 straight games  and was pounded by Colorado last week, and somehow still found a way to win. The Golden Bears  biggest problem is that just can't score, and   have  failed to gain 300 yards overall in four straight games.  Today however, Im betting their luck  will run out against a team that is much better than their record might indicate. Bottom line here is you have to score to beat Stanford,  and Cals  passing game is  less than viable, and the running game is putrid in trouble against strong Cardinal defensive front .The Bad News Bears are not going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Stanford has won 9 straight meetings in this series and the L/4 here at Cal dating back to the 2010.

Last week, Stanford beat UCLA 49-42 , but that a good omen as STANFORD is 20-4 ATS  in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored and HC Shaw is 7-0 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.

Play on Stanford to cover 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Floyd Stadium - Murfreesboro, TN

The Blue Raiders have won five of its last six games overall and five in a row over C-USA opponents, and their home winning streak is at seven games going back to last season.  UAB has a great D, but HC Rick Stockstill  also has a tough hard nosed D, and that was evident on Nov 24 of this season UAB was soundly beaten by Middle Tennessee State 27-3 and repeat performance is not out of the question according to my own projections in the rematch for the CUSA Championship.  

Note: [RB] 11/25/2018 - Spencer Brown is "?" Saturday vs Middle Tenn St ( Undisclosed )

UAB is 3-12 ATS L/15  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games  .MIDDLE TENN ST is 16-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (UAB) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 1-33 SU L/26 seasons for a 97% go against  conversion rate for bettors witht he average point differential clicking in at 21.6 ppg. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Floyd Stadium - Murfreesboro, TN

The Blue Raiders have won five of its last six games overall and five in a row over C-USA opponents, and their home winning streak is at seven games going back to last season.  UAB has a great D, but HC Rick Stockstill  also has a tough hard nosed D, and that was evident on Nov 24 of this season UAB was soundly beaten by Middle Tennessee State 27-3 and repeat performance is not out of the question according to my own projections in the rematch for the CUSA Championship.  

Note: [RB] 11/25/2018 - Spencer Brown is "?" Saturday vs Middle Tenn St ( Undisclosed )

UAB is 3-12 ATS L/15  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games  .MIDDLE TENN ST is 16-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (UAB) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 1-33 SU L/26 seasons for a 97% go against  conversion rate for bettors witht he average point differential clicking in at 21.6 ppg. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oklahomas body of work this season  despite of star QB  QB Kyler Murrays heroics have  not impressed me, with their only really top tier outing coming vs West Virginia. The Sooners are erratic to say the least as their defence has allowed 46, 47, 40 and 56  points in the last four games and the word champion if they win today must be used loosely. I know Texas may not inspire bettors either as they have been extremely inconsistent. but they did win this seasons Red River clash 48-45 handing the Sooners they're only loss, and have now covered 6 straight in this series. 

Longhorns HC Tom Herman is 12-1 ATS as a underdog, including 7-0 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points.

TEXAS is 6-0 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game this season and is 2-10 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. 

 CFB team (OKLAHOMA) - revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 12-45 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (OKLAHOMA) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 14-41  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas to cover 

PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levis Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

The  Washington Huskies upset Washington State last week in a 28-15 emotional filled event that will have them in a letdown scenario this week. It will be hard for them to get up to the same energy levels as last week, vs a tough physical Utah team that can make life miserable for them in the trenches   I know Washington beat the Utes back in September but since than Utah is 7-1 SU and  are 4-1 ATS as underdogs with conference revenge and 5-1 ATS when getting 6 points or less. Washington before last weeks  Apple Cup victory were on a 6 game ATS losing streak and looked far from being championship calibre team. Note    Utah is 15-0 SU in games not played on the weekend  and 5-0 SUATS the last five overall .

UTAH is 19-6 ATS L/25 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or more). WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (UTAH) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Utah to cover 

BYU (6-5) knocked off a ranked opponent on the road earlier this season and is more than capable of turning the trick again as they have the added incentive of needing to  notch back-to-back wins to get bowl eligible. I know Utah is a top tier team, but when these programs have met in the past records  and stats go out the window, as 17 out of the last 20 games in the Holy War have been decided by seven points or less.BYU is  also 21-3-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge, including 14-1 ATS against opposition with at least one loss on the season like Utah. With No. 17 ranked Utah looking ahead to next weeks PAC 12 championship game, expect the unexpected. Take the points. 

BYU is 6-0 ATS in road games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

BYU to cover 

Notre Dame deserves to be in the top 6 teams in the country, and despite of USC having an off year, they are still extremely talented with a deep recruiting class. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Trojans play their best game of this season this Saturday for the Irish to may not be so lucky. It must also be noted that the Trojans are 6-0 ATS as home pups  with a below .500 record and the visitor in this series i 0-5 ATS L/5 meetings and USC is 8-3 ATS when hosting this series.

NOTRE DAME is 0-9 ATS  off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more since 1992.

CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-25 ATS since 1992 for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on USC to cover 

 The Governor's Cup matchup at Louisville's Cardinal Stadium between the Cardinal and Wildcats is best summef up by the following quotes: 

"In a rivalry game you can throw the records out the window," Stoops said. "We're worried about ourselves and playing the best football we can and just finishing.

"I think anytime you play a rival, the guys on the other side are going to play harder," said Louisville interim coach Lorenzo Ward, whose Cardinals (2-9) haven't won since a 20-17 decision over Western Kentucky back on Sept. 15. "It's about pride, so you can throw the records out. Regardless of how a season's gone, it's still the same as if we were undefeated."

Key Trend:KENTUCKY is 1-11 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons

Take the points with Louisville to cover 

New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-41 in their first meeting this season and matchup well against them. Meanwhile, Liberty D, is currently a shambles, has allowed an average of 40.4 ppg on the season.

Liberty HC Gill is 1-9 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 54-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New Mexico State to cover

Rice at 1-11 might not inspire bettors but Old Dominion despite of some upsets this season have for majority of the time played down to their opponents, and are never a safe bets as a favorite especially on the road. 

RICE is 22-10 ATS  in home games when playing against a team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. RICE is 25-10 ATS  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

RICE is 44-25 ATS as a home underdog since 1992.RICE is 31-16 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.Wilder is 7-16 ATS  after playing a non-conference game as the coach of OLD DOMINION.

CFB team (RICE) - after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 59-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Rice to cover 

Michigan is a team on a mission this season, but their going into a place that will be extremely unwelcoming, against a side that has won 6 straight and 13 of their L/14 games playing with a chip on their shoulders as they have been shredded for being pretenders because of  what many are saying is a weak defence.  Today in contrarian fashion I expect the Buckeyes D, will stand tall, and for super star QB Dwayn Haskins and company to make Michigan amazing D, to look human.

Ohio State are  7-1 ATS L/8 as home dogs versus .900 or better opposition , and a perfect 8-0 100%  ATS as home dogs of +2.5 or more points. Ohio State under HC Urban Meyer is  is 102-10 SU at home on his career, with only four losses by more than 4 points.

CFB  Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ohio State Buckeyes to cover 

The Herd comes in playing its best ball of the season, winning four of their last five games while holding their three last opponents to season low in yards.  With some important  play off implications on the line here today, I expect Marshall will be primed to bump Florida International off here because if FIU wins they advance to the championship game. Add to that they have revenge on board for a 41-30 loss at home the last time these teams met, and you have a motivated Marshall team in top form to back. 

CFB Road favorites (MARSHALL) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 58-21 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

 Marshall to cover 

When this season started the pundits expected Washington to be  one of the best teams in the nation. They are still a fine team, but have subsequently lost their lustre with losses to Utah, California, and Oregon. ( The 3 losses came by 4, 3, 2 points respectively and the games could have gone either way)  But now with redemption at hand this senior group of Huskies can upset the Apple cart with a win vs a Washington State (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12)  football program playing for its first conference title in 16 years and its first trip to the College Football Playoff. A win in this tilt will also propel Washington into the PAC 12 championship game where they will have a revenge scenario vs Utah to take care of. 

  WSU HC Mike Leach has a fine team, and are a top tier group who deserve respect  .  But Washington State has not faired well in this series and are  0-4 SUATS the last four, 1-7 ATS as a favorite and 0-5 ATS at home and Im betting wont get the cheese for their betting backers.

Play on Washington Huskies  to cover 

Oklahoma  football program owns a 19-1 SU record  in their last twenty overall away games, and 17-0 SU in their last seventeen conference away games and Im betting that streak continues  when the the dust settles here tonight in this tilt vs the West Virginia Mountaineers. I know the Mounties must be respected with  future NFL draft pick Grier under centre, but Dana Holgorsons  football crew just cant seem to get over the hump and have failed miserably against to tier football programs in the recent past going just 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS against .900 or better conference opp. The status quo remains in effect again, as West Virginia finds a way to lose this tilt vs a side that needs a win and to guaranteed a shot at the Big 12 Championship crown.

Holgorsen is 0-10 ATS  after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of W VIRGINIA , which has just happened. 

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

On a current 23 game win streak, UCF is feeling pressure to stay undefeated. After their huge win last week vs Cincinnati on National TV , this talented athletic group might find the attention their getting detrimental to their ability to  focus. Meanwhile,  USF their opponents a  team that despite of struggling of late is capable of making life difficult for their opponents behind a strong offence that has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. UCF won last season in a 47-42 shoot out vs Charlie Strong's group, but South Florida won the previous 3 meetings and are 7-2 SU L/9 in this series, and get the nod tonight. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCF) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%) or better  playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 18-48 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the South Florida Bulls to cover 

Virginia and Virginia Tech prepare to do battle in a game I have pegged to be closely contested. I know VTech has lost 4 straight, but Virginia is struggling a little bit as well, as the Cavs have lost 2 of their L/3  . Virginia is also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 in November and 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games and are not as strong a side as some pundits might think. Vtech has won 10 of the L/14 meetings in this series when hosting  and Im betting if the Hokies lose today it wont be by more than the point spread. 

VTech has won 14 straight meetings in this series.

 CFB team (VIRGINIA TECH) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on VTech to cover 

The Bulls took their first conference road loss of the season last time out in Ohio in. a surprising 52-17 loss. Now at 9-2 overall and 6-1 in the Mid-American Conference, Buffalo will play at Bowling Green this week with a chance to clinch to MAC East Division title. With redemption on their plate for their ugly loss to Ohio and with the MAC East title on the line Im betting on a huge effort from the Bulls versus a  out gunned Bowling Green side.

BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average point differential clicking in at 15 ppg. 

CFBhome team (BOWLING GREEN) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 7-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBRoad favorites (BUFFALO) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, in conference games.  are 40-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

Two long instate SEC rivals the Mississippi State  Bulldogs and Mississippi Rebels  go head to head this Thursday night in a game  that I have pegged to be alot closer than the lines makers are estimating. This tilt is referred to as the  Egg bowl , and in Ole Miss finale this Thursday I expect they will play this like a Bowl game and leave everything on the field. Remember Ole Miss cannot play in a real Bowl game because of NCAA sanctions and penalties. Look for Rebels  super star WRS, A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf, who all could be first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft to go all out here in what will their final college football games of their careers. Last years game was physical and closely contested with the Rebs coming away with a 31-28 win, after blowing a big lead. With that said, I look for another war here and for the points to end up being golden. 

The Rebs are 7-3 SU  and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 home Egg Bowls

Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Underdog has cashed 5 of the L/6 meetings. MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS  after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons Miss State has failed to cover 3 of their 4 road games this season.

CFB team (OLE MISS) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

The Rebels  pulled off  huge upset last time out  when they beat the San Diego State Aztecs as 24-point dogs, 27-24. Im betting they use the momentum of that game to buoy them here in Paradise Island tonight vs a tired looking Rainbow Warriors side that has put alot of air miles  on their bodies this season. 

HAWAII is 0-11 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.UNLV is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons

CFB  road team (UNLV) - off a win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 44-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  home team vs. the money line (HAWAII) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 5-29 SU L/22 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNLV to cover 

Last season  the Washington State Cougars were upset  in Tucson  against the Arizona Wildcats  as road chalk  by a 58-37count and now revenge is at hand for the Cougars at home here in Pullman this week.   I know Khalil Tate is a star QB, and gives Arizona a chance when he is healthy , but this is not a good situation for the Wildcats as they will have problems on the defensive side of the ball dealing with the Cougars deadly aerial attack and a overall 10-0 mark in the ITS battles. 

 ***Cougars quarterback Gardner Minshew II, the nation's leader in passing yards per game (385.2), and a Washington State attack that leads the nation in passing yards per game (392.3). The Wildcats rank 10th in the conference in total defense (417 yards per game) and ninth in pass defense (248.7 yards per game).

 WASHINGTON ST is 10-0 ATS  after gaining 325 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. ST is 6-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff of 14.2 . ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games.

Play on the Washington State Cougars to cover 

Georgia Southern is in the precarious position of coming into this road game in an emotional letdown situation after facing Troy last week at home and losing, which puts an end to their Sun Belt East conquest. It must be noted that Coastal Carolina Chanticleers do not make alot of mistakes , which is not a good omen for a Georgia Southern side, that has a 21 turnover margin this season. Georgia S. has failed to cover 6 straight vs teams like Coastal that have one or less turnovers a game on average. The Chanticleers have two games left and they need to grab a win to be bowl eligible, which makes them motivated home dogs. 

CFB Favorites of -175 to -400 vs. the money line (GA SOUTHERN) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced after 8+ games, in conference games are 9-22 SU L/26 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

Senior citizen Hall of Fame coach of the year HC Bill Snyder in his final campaign  before retiring has had a down year, but still must not be discounted at home as the   Red Raiders come knocking. With Texas Techs Freshman  star QB Alan Bowman out with a collapsed lung injury Texas Tech will go with backup QB Jett Duffey who despite of looking good against Texas last time out, is still not ready for whats coming here in this nasty road  environment where the home team needs wins desperately to go Bowling this season and help their long time coach go out with hands raised. It must be noted that Snyder is 32-3 SU at home against opponents off consecutive losses like the Techsters are, including 11-0 ATS vs.400 or better opposition.

CFB ( TEXAS TECH) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  77% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more against opponent off a home win are 3-33 L/10 seasons for a 91%  go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KState to cover 

 Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West crown last week by  taking out the Iowa Hawkeyes and Im betting they won't be as motivated here this week in what should be a natural letdown situation. . Meanwhile, Minnesota  upset and pounded the Purdue Boilers, 41-10, as a 10.5-point home dog.   The  Gophers still need one win in their last two games to go bowling and will  go all out here to beat Northwestern  , because the following week sees them go to Wisconsin.  I know Northwestern somehow clinched the West this season, but they are far from being a top tier side, as is evident by an offence that is  ranked No. 112 in the nation and that has been out yarded by an average of 23 YPG. Add to that Minnesota has also had this game circled  and have revenge on board for a nasty 39-0 loss in Evanston last season and you have a viable wagering opportunity backing the home dog Gophers\. 

MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS off a upset win as a double digit underdog. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (NORTHWESTERN) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival are 3-33 L/26 seasons for a 92% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 

Both these teams need wins to be Bowl eligible which will make for a hard fought game. TCU rushing attack was down right bad last week vs West Virginia, but  should do much better here vs a Baylor side  that  is a league worst against the rush allowing 183.8 yards a game on the ground. TCU has  the best third-down defense in the league, limiting opponents to a 33.1 percent conversion rate in those situations (47-for-142).Baylor, strength offesnively has been meanwhile,   third downs by converting 45.5 percent (66-for-145) , but in a close game TCU D, looks set to be the difference maker. 

 CFB Road favorites (TCU) - after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 33-7 ATS L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU 

Boise  State is coming off a huge win vs Fresno State at home last week by a 24-17 count, and should now be in an emotional letdown spot coming into this game against New Mexico. I know the Lobos don't inspire bettors, after a disappointing season and 5 straight losses, but according to my own projections this point spread and taking points with the home dog has value attached to it. Look for the backfield of Tyrone Owens, Zahneer Shuler, and Ahmari Davis, and Daevon Vigilant  to churn out yards and get us the cover. 

Note :the last time the Lobos played a team at home of Boise States calibre they hung with San Diego State losing by just one TD, so its not like they cannot be competitive, because they have proven they can.  Head coach Bob Davie’s tenure  is due to end. but Im betting he will have his troops primed to pull off an upset here in what will be their version of a bowl game. 

HC Harsin is 2-10 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of BOISE ST  NEW MEXICO is 11-2 ATS in home games off 3 straight losses against conference rivals and the football program is 40-20 ATS L/60 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.Davie is 18-8 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of NEW MEXICO.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

Houston gets to many accolades from the media , and are just not living up to expectations as this season progresses, something that has been a common theme with them over the last few seasons. They have a load of talent but game preparation and inconsistency remains a problem, as does a defence that has allowed an 500+ypg  and has also given up  2,049 yards in its last four games including 44 ppg. Meanwhile, Tulane has quietly  gotten better as this season, has progressed behind a hard nosed defence and an offence that has steadily improved over their L/4 trips to the gridiron. 

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons and has failed to cover 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series. 

Tulane is 6-1 ATS L/7 as a 10 point or less underdog. 

CFB  team (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

Both California and USC have been inconsistent this season, but the Trojans from a head to head matchup perspective are the superior side according to my power ranking numbers and matchup well vs the Bears. I know Cal has covered 3 straight but they have also been outgunned in 3 of their L/4 overall. With both teams needing a win to get a Bowl invite, Im betting both will be primed to play but home field advantage will be the difference maker. 

The USC  Trojans  have owned this series vs California in the past and are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games at home and are 16-1 against. the Bears in their last 17 meetings overall . USC has won 14 straight  vs the Bears, and covered the this weak number in each of those tilts. 

CFB team (USC) - good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) against an average defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on USC to cover 

LSU was manhandled by Alabama  last week 29-0 , and are now beat up and downtrodden after that very physical affair and I'm betting they will be in a huge letdown situation here this week on the road vs feisty Arkansas gridiron group. Energy levels will be low for the Tigers  , after their  SEC title hopes and most likely its CFP aspirations were  crushed and Arkansas will be ready to take advantage of the situation. Take the points

Arkansas has covered 4 of the L/5 here as DD home dogs vs LSU and are 8-3 ATS L/11 in this series overall. LSU has failed to cover 4 straight vs .400 or less SEC opposition. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Florida International was smashed last week by instate rivals Florida Atlantic by a 49-14 count, and  will be in a letdown situation , and may have some problems dusting off the brutality of that beating as they go on the road vs a team that played them tough last season (14-7).

UTSA might have a negative record but  are more than capable enough of covering and have had a propensity to keep their home games close as is evident by a -8 point differential this season .UTSA  L/9  home lined games over the last 2 seasons have seen a average 1.1 line differntial UTSA 22.9 OPP 21.8 .Overall UTSA L/20 line games have seen a -3.4 ppg line differntial UTSA 20.1 OPP 23.5.

UTSA to cover 

Auburn (6-3, 3-3)  enters this rivalry game with  Georgia with  a huge chip on their shoulders , and are also  motivated to get revenge for last year's loss to the Bulldogs in Mercedes-Benz Stadium . Head coachGus Malzahn. prior to his recent two game win streak has taken alot of heat from alumni and boosters, but has been golden for  his betting backers  going 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 13-0 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in conference games. Georgia after their huge win vs Kentucky last week, may have problems rising up with as much intensity this week, which gives credence to me backing the road dog here. 

GEORGIA is 8-24 ATS L/32 in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB home team (GEORGIA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Auburn to cover 

We have value here with South Alabama as injured QB Evan Orth is expected to play. I expect the Warhawks despite of leading the West, wanting revenge for a loss in this series last season, could easily still be caught looking ahead to bigger fish with Louisiana and Arkansas State up next. The Warhawks weakness has been their pass defence, and could easily get torched by Orth this week who has a 65% passer conversion rate. 

Play on South Alabama to cover 

Kentucky was demolished last week by Georgia 34-17 and enter this road game against up trending Tennessee in a emotional letdown scenario. Believe it or not its not a good bounce back opportunity for the Wildcats as they are just 4-34 all time in this series and have lost their L/13 trips here. In Kentuckys last 4 trips to the gridiron they have averaged just 15 ppg and could easily find themselves up ended by a Volunteers side that upset Auburn as a road dog and lost by just a FG to South Carolina as road pups. Im betting that if Snell and company can  muster up enough energy to get the win here it won't come easily making Tennessee a viable home dog. 

Note: Kentucky has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 as favorites.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

The Gophers’ have played their best football at home this season as evident by their 4-1  home record  as opposed to 0-4 on the road this campaign.The Gophers biggest problems have come on defence but HC  P.J. Fleck fired his defensive coordinator and Im expecting things to turnaround in that department. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers after 3 hard fought battles against Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa may come into this game pooched and over looking their lower trending opponent. Considering the Gophers are 8-1 ATS as  double-digit home dog Im expecting that taking the points proves golden.  Note: Purdues last 12 games played on turf has seen a 0.6 ppg average differential. 

Take the points with Minnesota to cover 

Old Dominion upset VTech earlier this seasons, and despite of stumbling since than are an underrated team, and have a Wide receiver  inTravis Fulgham,  that has been added to the watch list for the Biletnikoff Award last week and is a future NFL draft pick, and is going to be a key weapon here today against North Texas as the arm of  Blake LaRussa gets a work out. Meanwhile, on D, Old Dominion defensive end Oshane Ximines ( 14.5 tackles and 8.5 sacks) will make the North Texas offensive line work hard for room. Surprise surprise, Old Dominion gets us the cover. 

 NORTH TEXAS is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.NORTH TEXAS is 4-18 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

West Virginia  is off a huge emotional win vs the Texas Longhorns last week and  will be pooched and most probably hungover in more ways than one vs struggling  TCU. I know  the Froggies  Coach Gary Patterson’s has seen his talented up inconsistent team shoot themselves in the foot on numerous occasions this season, but this is a prime opportunity to get just a little bit of redemption so I expect the Horned Frogs to be sky high for this game, and will play loose as they have nothing to lose by not doing so here on the road .  TCU under Gary Patterson is 12-2 ATS as a double-digit dog, including 6-0 ATS from Game Ten out. West Virginia is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after playing Texas. 

W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 13-4 ATS  in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB team (TCU) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 36-10 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU to cover 

The Fresno State Bulldogs  are an explosive team that look to be on a mission as they have won 18 of their L/23 games and are a bankroll expanding  19-3 ATS in all games L/21 lines games , including 13-1 ATS in conference games and a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road . Meanwhile, despite of all the accolades Boise State has gotten from the media, they are no longer a blue carpet  dominant team, and have only covered 1 of their 7 vs visiting Mountain West teams with a .700 or better record. The Broncos also are not playing all that well, and look to be at a disadvantage cs aside that is out gaining their opposition by an average of 122 ypg since early September.Fresno State is 14-0 ATS in its last fourteen games versus Mountain West Conference opposition with a .500 record or better and get the nod again this Friday night behind a D, that has allowed a total of 36 points in conference games this season.

Play on Fresno State to cover 

  Northern Illinois just clinched a bowl berth with last week’s 36-26 victory vs Akron  and look ripe to be in a letdown situation this week vs an explosive Toledo team that has averaged 41 ppg this season. The sled dogs own a tremendous defence, but the Rockets can score against the best of teams, which is going to be a problem for the home team tonight as they have only been able to muster 19.2 ppg on the season, behind an offense that can only be described as methodical and inconsistent. Toledo has won the 2 most recent meetings in this series, and are my choice to cover here tonight. The visitor in this series has only failed to cover one of the L/7 confrontations. Toledo is also 10-2 ATS L/12 weekday games.

(Weather conditions during the day 40F, and 28 at night, some wind gusts but nothing series, so no advantage here for N.Illinois as they hoped for inclement weather that would slow down the Toledo attack)

TOLEDO is 22-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened last time out in a 45-13 win vs Ball State. 

CFB Road underdogs (TOLEDO) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are a long term good bet as they are 124-66 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on Toledo to cover 

BYU plays a methodical conservative brand of football, which was evident in a 7-6 loss to N.Illinois last week, a MAC team that plays a similar type of football. Now this week on the Blue Carpet of Boise State I expect the rip van winkle gridiron crew to be the Mormons approach to this game as they look to slow this tilt down to a snails pace which Im betting will help them stay competitive vs the Broncos.  Note: BYU is 20-2-2 ATS L/24 games as road dogs. While Boise State is 0-6 ATS L/6 at home as favorite of 10 to 14.5 points. BYU has covered 3 of the L/4 meetings here and get the nod again in this spot play. 

Play on BYU to cover 

Neither of these teams is living up to their preseason Billings, but what stands out when Washington hosts Stanford today is  Cards HC David Shaws 13-4 ATS record as a dog, including 5-0 ATS when's is getting 9 or more points. Stanford also owns a 15-1 ATS record as visitors after allowing 40-plus points, which happened last time out. Last season Stanford took out the Huskies at home for their 10 win in the L/14 in this series, and right now the way the Huskies are playing revenge will not be enough to get them the payback they want. 

Stanford is 12-0 SU/ 11-0-1 ATS L/5 seasons coming off a loss as a favorite. ( Last week Stanford lost 41-28 heartbreaker to a very good Washington State team)

STANFORD is 8-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.STANFORD is 19-4 ATS  in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 9-33 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 

Alabama is third in rushing offense and fourth in rushing defense. LSU, which has played a tougher schedule so far, is sixth and seventh in those categories. Im not disputing how great a football program that Alabama has , I'm just looking at value associated with this line as compared to how both teams have looked this season, and LSUs big time home advantage from a historical viewpoint. Hey guys don't me wrong its always tough betting against BAMA, but you have to continue to grab the edges when you can and keep your head up no matter what because those edges make for long term profits! The Tides Tagovailoa looks like a once in a generation type QB in his current form, but he's yet to have to consistently take on real world competition like he will today. With hat said, Ill grab the points here with the two TD+ home dog.

LSU is 10-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 8-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 6-0 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

LSU in their L/64 home games dating back 10 seasons have lost only 7 times straight up with only one loss coming by more than 10 points. 

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (LSU) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 24-3 ATS L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 

This is a bad scheduling spot for Miss State as they are off a big win vs Texas A&M last week, and will now be in a letdown spot with a look ahead game against Alabama in their next game. Meanwhile,  LA Tech are no pushovers, and have revenge on board for getting clobbered last year at home by the Rebels. It must be noted that MSU  has failed to cover 16 of their L/21 non-conference of 20 or more fav points while, LA Tech HC  Skip Holtz is   16-3 ATS as a road dog  when coming off an underdog situation like he faced last week at Florida Atlantic and  perfect 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU underdog victory which he achieved in that above mentioned game.LOUISIANA TECH is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Tennessee may not be back to their glory years just yet, but Im betting they will be primed and ready to take their frustrations out on a lower tier Charlotte program that is playing with a backup QB . The Vols won't rest players , and they won't take their foot of the pedal as they need  to continue to improve and show their loyal fans that their on their way back to prominence. Search and destroy mission on Saturdays agenda for the Volunteers. 

CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Projected score: Tennessee  44 Charlotte 9

After being beat up on an embarrassed last week by Clemson, the Seminoles will be primed for a better showing vs another team (NC State) that was smashed by Clemson and has now  lost back-to-back games and dropped out of the Associated Press poll  .First-year Seminoles coach Willie Taggart said Monday he thought some of his players quit and that his staff needed "to find the winners" on the team. That was a punishing statement that was made in the media, and now we will see what his team is made of this week. Im betting these kids stand tall this Saturday and give a reeling NC State team a run for their money. 

Florida State is 10-0 ATS (15.8 ppg) 9-1 SU since Dec 30, 1983 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 42 points , with the lone loss coming by 7 points. FSU is also 16-2 SU off a loss of 20 or points dating back to 1983 and a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS if that team is .700 or above. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons  for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida State to cover 

The last time West Virginia played Texas star QB Will Grier left the game with a hand injury and did not make it past the first quarter.  It was bitter sweet occurrence as Texas ended up clinching bowl eligibility in the process on West Virginia's home field. Now payback is on the agenda this week for the Mountaineers .Quote:"This one is one we've been looking forward to for a while," West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen said. "It didn't quite end the way we wanted it to last year, and we haven't forgotten about that." END QUOTE. WVU has won three of the four previous meetings played in Austin, including a 24-20 win in 2016 and get the nod again. 

West Virginia is 7-2 ATS L/9 on the road in Big 12 action as TD or less dogs.

CFB Road underdogs (W VIRGINIA) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Recent wins and covers vs Syracuse, and Duke and a closely contested battle vs Notre Dame have shown me that Pittsburgh is up trending in a hurry and pose a threat to a very good  but over rated Virginia team. Pittsburgh has won and covered the last two meetings in this series, and are live dogs again,  and get my support here in this spot getting points. 

The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games and 7-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

VIRGINIA is 14-28 ATS  after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (PITTSBURGH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Im betting UCF will have their hands full with a very physical Temple team, and their perfect 7-0 record could be in jeopardy. Temples two losses this season came by 10 points to BC and 7 to Buffalo U. My power rankings suggest that UCF should only be a 7 to 8 point favorite here and that we have value with Temple to cover this number.

TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 13-2 ATS  in road games over the last 3 seasonsTEMPLE is 9-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites (UCF) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 47-88 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Temple to cover 

Last week Western Michigan had their 6 game win streak abruptly come to an end, as a frustrated and angry Toledo team off blowing a late lead to Buffalo U the prior week came in with a full head of steam and upset the Broncos. I also believe Western Michigan was not respecting their opponents enough, and the end result was ugly. Now in redemption mode, Im betting the Broncos come out here ready to resume  their previous top tier play vs a Ohio Bobcats team that can score , but that has a lot of defensive deficiencies, despite of garnering some positive D stats vs their last two lowly opponents, Ball St and Bowling Green. I know Ohio destroyed a injury riddled Ball State last week, but the hosts are a much better group and healthier  team than Ball State and will give Ohio more then they can handle. 

I am also not worried who starts under center for Western Michigan  as   both are terrific Qbs.  Note: The Broncos have done well vs struggling secondaries as is evident by  11-2 ATS L/13 record vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game .

Bobcats are 0-3 ATS L/3 in the first of two consecutive road tilts. OHIO U is 2-10 ATS  after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992 and is  2-11 ATS  in road games off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals.W MICHIGAN in their L/26 games  as a home underdog have seen a average point differential of 26.8 to 24.5 favouring the Broncos.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

The Buffalo Bulls own a balanced offence behind a future NFL QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson . The Bulls have averaged  235.0 yards passing and 176.3 on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo leads the MAC in scoring and total defense. I look for them to primed tonight to stop Miami O cold on their own home field and grab a commanding lead in the race for MAC East title. Buffalo also has the motivation of revenge on their sides, as Miami O beat them last season 24-14 at home as 3 point chalk. 

BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

The favorite has won 8 of the L/10 meetings. 

Buffalo to cover 

San Diego State is a very viable short favorite here vs a Nevada team on tired  jet lagged legs and in a letdown situation after a win at Hawaii last week. I know the Aztecs did not look very awake themselves last week in a victory vs lowly San Jose State ( 16-13) but now I expect the alarm clock will go off early and they will be ready to respond in a big way here vs a side they have dominated of late winning 7 of the L/8 meetings . Note: Nevada is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs .700 or better opposition. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons

The San Diego State Aztecs are 23-0 SU L/23 vs  .500 or less conference opponents since 2014.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEVADA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are just 23-55 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Tulane since they upset and  beat Memphis seem totally deflated. The Wave defence has been particularly bad,  ranking 103rd in total yards allowed with 433.1 yards per game. Meanwhile, despite of failing to notch wins, Tulsa from time to time has looked like a upper echelon side, losing by 1 points to USF, and  played Texas tough losing a by a 28-21 count. These teams just can't seem to get over the hump and both are desperate for wins, but Im betting home field advantage will be the difference maker today. Tulsa is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 meetings here at home in this series and has big time revenge on board for ugly 62-28 loss at Tulane last season.

CFB road team vs. the money line (TULANE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more, a struggling  team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 6-36 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Tulsa to cover 

The Tigers (4-3, 0-3 SEC) are the best unranked team in the nation in my humble opinion and are explosive behind the league's No. 3 passing attack with quarterback Drew Lock  the key production manufacturer  and ranks third in the conference as a  passer.Lock's passing total of 1,979 yards ranks behind only Jordan Ta'amu (2,622 yards) of Ole Miss and Alabama's Tua Tagoavailoa (2,066) among SEC's passers.Missouri is coming off a huge 65-33 win over Memphis in which Lock passed for 373 yards and four touchdowns and have momentum entering this tilt vs Kentucky. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky behind future NFL RB Snell, are a run first team, but Im betting they will not be as productive as usual, vs the Tigers  No. 35 ranked  rush defense as they hold opponents to just over 131 yards a game. Kentucky has a fine D, but Missouri can light it up against the best of defenses, while their own D can stop the run and have given up most of their yards through the air, which wont matter vs a Kentucky team that is ranked 127th in the nation in passing yards. 

KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS  after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 season.

Play on Missouri to cover 

South Florida is a explosive team that averages 35.6 ppg on offence and ranked 11th nationally enters this game undefeated on the season, and look like a viable underdog road option in this spot. I know the football media pundits are heaping  accolades  on the Houston Cougars and their 3rd ranked offence , but Im not sold on them mostly because of their horrendous D, that is ranked a lowly 117th in the nation. Houston upset S.Florida last season as 10 point road dogs, and now payback is at hand. Note: Houston has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 vs a side with conference revenge. 

S.Florida continues to win but have failed to cover two straight and have failed to cover. 4 of their L/5 mostly because of hefty lines, but it must be note that Strong is 12-1 ATS  in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992. Strong is also 10-1 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 37-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 50-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 25-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBA home team vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more ) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play o South Florida to cover 

Middle Tennessee State is a team that is getting to much respect here based on past season of upper echelon work, but this season, they are being out gained by FBS opposition by 85 yards a game. Meanwhile, Old Dominion finally woke up from their Virginia Tech upset handover last week to notch a upset win on the road vs Western Kentucky. Now that Old Dominion is wide awake Ill back them to being home the cash here as home dogs in this spot vs a over rated Blue raiders side living on past accolades. Note: Middle Tennessee is 0-4 L/4 as a road fav and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 overall in that role. If the Raiders win today it wont come without Old Dominion putting up a fight. With that said take the points. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (MIDDLE TENN ST) - poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a terrible rushing defense (4.8 YPRor more ) after 7+ games are 4-22 SU L/5 seasons for a 85%  go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

Penn State has had some ups and downs this season, but this still a very strong team, with a long standing winning football program. Recently Penn State has been dominant in situations like this as they are  11-0 /SU ATS covering by more than 18.82 ppg as a favorite coming off a win where they failed to cover (33-28 uglifest vs Indiana last week) with the smallest margin of victory coming by 10 points and the average margin score differential clicking in at Penn State 41.7 Opp 6.7 ppg. Nine of those 11 games saw their opposition score 7 or less points in a game.  The L/4 games dating back to the 2017 season, have seen Penn State outscore their opposition 218-23. Iowa has a fine team, and rank high in my power rankings, but the Nittany Lions have proven ferocious under the above mentioned perimeters, and are extremely motivated to prove their detractors wrong behind the arm and legs  QB star McSorley who completed 42 of 66 passes for 524 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and has added 31 carries for 101 yards and another score against Iowa in his career. In 2016 when Iowa visited Penn State the huge beatdown took place by a 41-14 count. Can it happen again, maybe maybe not, but key here is we get the cover.  By the way yes Iowa has won 3 straight, conference games in impressive fashion, but Maryland , Minnesota, Indiana are hardly marquee wins so lets not get carried away with the Hawkeyes potential just yet. 

PENN ST is 16-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and is 8-0 ATS  off a road win over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Penn State to cover