HC Nick Rolovich,  of Hawaii is 1-12-1 ATS as a favourite in his tenure with the  Paradise Island football program and is once again laying points here on the road at UNLV.  I know the Rebels may not inspire bettors but they did upset SEC opponent Vanderbilt earlier this season, and on occasion have shown flashes of brilliance , so they truly are not as bad some think, just very inconsistent .  Meanwhile, HC Sanchez has seen his Sin City team cash at a 4-0-1 ATS rate in the last 5 meetings. I know the Warriors can really do some offensive damage , but as good as their attack is their defence is equally horrendous and have allowed an average  510 YPG over the last five tilts, and ripe to take on more punishment here against a team desperate for positive results. 

Play on UNLV to cover 

Auburn is  being under rated here vs what my projections are currently telling me is  a slightly over rated Georgia Buldogs team that had numerous injuries last week in their game against Missouri. The Tigers have been strong at home this season with a 4-0 record, and lost by just 3 points to new SEC power house LSU and deserve out respect here as home dogs. 

AUBURN is 11-1 ATS  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game and is15-1 ATS in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game.

Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is 10-0 SU with rest in conference games in his career, as well as 8-0 SU off a bye versus unrested opponents.

Play on Auburn to cover 

Alabama is off a disheartening loss to LSU at home last week,  which will have the Crimson Tide in an emotional letdown situation, as DD road chalk, which has me backing the home dog in this spot.

ALABAMA is 1-8 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

Saban is 4-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of ALABAMA.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons

Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Crimson Tide are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Bulldogs are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CFB home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 80-38 ATS L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

San Diego State is off a ugly loss toNevada last week. Rocky Long in my opinion has one his very few sub par teams, even though the pundits would disagree with me. As usual the defence is staunch, but when you can only muster an average of  20.8 PPG (112th nationally) you have problems. Im betting on a talented Fresno State side to do some damage here this week via a run game that averages 5.3 ypc, and for the Aztecs to continue to struggle putting points on the board.

FRESNO ST is 8-0 ATS  against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. 

FRESNO ST is 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons and have cashed 13 of their L/17 ATS on the road.FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

 DIEGO ST is 1-8 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO ST is 2-9 ATS in home lined games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Fresno State to cover 

I know LA Techs  Skip Holtz is known as  a cover machine, as an underdog and is on a 8 game win streak overall and obviously red hot, but Marshall is no push overs and the most physical team in the CUSA holding opponents to 3.8 ypc. This Thunder Hered team must be respected here as short faves as Marshall can clinch the East with a win tonight. 

CFB (LOUISIANA TECH) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 17-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 

 The Ohio University Bobcats  are 3-2 in the East Division of the MAC. and are not out of contention for their division as they enter this tilt against Western Michigan. However, to achieve their goal this is a must win situation vs a side Im betting they matchup well against especially here at home.

The Bobcats offense gets the job done , and while not spectacular are consistent averaging 29 points per game, which ranks 65th in the nation. Ohio averages 407 total yards per game, which ranks 67th in the nation. That includes 208 ypg in the air ( 89th in the nation,(  and 198 ypg on the ground (37th in the country). Defensively, the Bobcats allow 29 points per game, which is 78th in the nation.  

Western Michigan has averaged 36 ppg, and really rumble on the ground, but the same holds true for Ohio. I look for both sides to pound away with their ground games, but for Ohio to make a couple of more key stops on their own home field and to come out on top. Note: Western Michigan is 0-4 on the road this season, and are not performing at the same level they are at home.

Play on Ohio to cover 

Akron has shown zip this season, (excuse the pun) they have been horrendous and  have failed to win or even cover any of their first 9 games, thanks mostly to an undeniably bad offence. However, their defence is viable, and are only allowing 5.4 ypp, ranking in the top-60 nationally. Meanwhile, E.Michigan D, is not as good as Akrons, allowing  6.2 ypp and 4.8 yards per rush. On a night that is supposed to see bad weather in Akron, Im betting the Zips can run the ball down the throat of porous run D, and do enough damage offensively behind their only real offensive dual threat QB Kato Nelson, and get us the cover. Lets be brave here , and take the points.

E MICHIGAN is 10-22 ATS after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games.

Creighton is 2-9 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less ) as the coach of E MICHIGAN.

CFB Road favorites (E MICHIGAN) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 34-70 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Akron to cover 

After getting upset by Kansas State two weeks ago, there has been alot of soul searching in Sooner land , and now well rested , Im expecting them to come out here and be fired up and ready to lay a beatdown on their visiting conference foes this week Iowa State. Note: Oklahoma is 26-11 ATS as conference home fav of 14 or fewer points, and 36-0 SU and 25-10 ATS during the regular season when coming off a loss since 1999. Oklahoma has not beat anybody of note other than Texas, and they need a big win here to prove their the real deal to the committee, and while the Hawkeyes are no pushovers, Im betting they do end up as sacrificial lambs this week in a bad situational spot. 

OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +29.7 ppg.

CFB Home favorites (OKLAHOMA) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive game are 64-22 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma to cover 

BYU is off back to back big wins vs Utah State and Bosie State the last two weeks, and could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown state vs a side they maybe overlooking. Im betting on senior QB Steven Calvert, who has compiled over 11,000 passing yards in his career, to be the key catalyst behind a cover here today for a Bowl eligible Liberty team that has scored 59 or more points three times this season already. 

BYU is 10-22 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game

CFB Road underdogs (LIBERTY) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 44-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover 

Could this finally be a turning of the guard in the SEC? Quite possibly yes, but as far as we are concerned covering is much more important. Alabama has dominated this conference for so long, its hard to bet against them. However, LSU is the real deal, both on defence and offence, and are more than capable of hanging tough here vs conference gridiron gods the Crimson Tide. It must be noted that No. 1 ranked teams are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS since 1981, including 8-0 SUATS as a dog. The Boyou Tigers fit the bill and have the guns to deliver the cash this Saturday. Last season Saban and company pasted the Tigers 29-0 and now with revenge on board LSU will be breathing Cajun fire knowing they are 5-1 ATS L/6 with conference revenge and 5-2 ATS vs undefeated opposition. Note: Alabama is just 3-10 ATS L/13 as 10 point or less conference favs. 

Look for Joe Burrow to outduelAlabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. 

Take the points with LSU 

  Georgia Southern now playing back to back road tilts  is off a huge  upset of Appalachian State last week and Im betting they will be in a letdown situation here this Saturday vs a Trojans team off a tough loss last week and now ready to get back into the win column on their own home field. Im betting Troys QB Kaleb Barker will take advantage of a week Georgia Southern pass D. Troys air attack has been extremely strong this season, and we will see that here today. Note:( Troy has had back to back 500 yard offensive outputs both on the road)

 Meanwhile, Troy’s  run D will get tested again this week for the 2nd straight time and they will be ready and fresh to handle that pressure because of the constant exposure to a ground attack. Coastal Carolina was able to upset Troy last week, because of their ability to balance their run game with key passes, something Georgia Southern just cant do. Note: Georgia Southern is highly over rated as they have been outscored and out yarded this season, and despite of up trending are a little over rated here in this spot a road chalk)

Georgia Southern is 3-7 ATS L/10 as road favourites.

Troy has won 17 of their L/23 SU at home. 

Home coming side gets it done today plus the points,

Take Troy to cover 

BC has been uptrending on my power rankings for a while now, and after accumulating a  school record 691 yards in offence last week in a DD blasting of Syracuse they enter this game with a great deal of momentum. Meanwhile, Florida State their visiting opponents can be best described as inconsistent and now completely lost without fired head Coach Will Taggart. Advantage Boston College.

Seminoles are 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Seminoles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Seminoles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Eagles are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win.Eagles are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games on fieldturf.Eagles are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Eagles are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.Eagles are 39-17-2 ATS in their last 58 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

 CFB Home favorites  (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 36-1 SU L/10 seasons and a perfect 5-0 SU this season! 

Play on Boston College to cover 

The Golden Gophers are averaging 39.9 points and 446.9 total yards per game and have the ability to make the Penn State defence very hard to keep them under control. Im betting the Golden Gophers, who rank 24th in the nation with 232.0 rushing yards per game, to give the Nittany Lions top tier run D all they can handle on their way to a cover for the 6th straight time.

PENN ST is 4-14 ATS L/18  in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 285  or less yards/game. PENN ST is 7-23 ATS L/30 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game. Franklin is 8-17 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of PENN ST.

Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS L/12 after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. Fleck is 23-9 ATS  after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached.

Golden Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Home team is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CFB home team vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an excellent defensive team (16 or less PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 26-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  home team (MINNESOTA) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game.are 50-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers to cover 

I know alot of pundits might think that Washington is washed up and an emotional let down state after losing to Utah last time out, for their third home loss this season.... their most in in 4 years. However, it most be noted that Oregon State despite of up trending, just dont matchup well here vs a unfortunate but very good Huskies team that might want to get the pundits off their backs by taking out their frustrations on Beavers. Im betting on Huskies QB Eason to pick apart the Beavers pass defense wit big play after big play.  Washington is 22nd in the country in passing explosiveness and Oregon State is 126th at defending it. The Beavers rank outside the top 110 in opponent rush and pass explosiveness and look like fodder for a angry and downtrodden group this Friday night. 

Play on Washington to cover 

The Temple Owls enter this game off a bye week, but prior to their break, they allowed  an average 45.3 PPG and 587 YPG in their last three tilts, which had me believing that they are highly over rated especially on D. Meanwhile, USF has won 3 of their L/4 and up trending and needs wins badly to become bowl eligible and will be ready to play a big game here tonight vs a program they have beaten in 3 of their L/4 meetings including the two most recent matchups as hosts. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEMPLE) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-70 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S FLORIDA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 27-6 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on USF to cover 

 Im not sold on Oregon and believe their being over hyped by the media.  The Ducks have recently struggled defensively against air raid offenses like USC owns and have really showed some serious cracks in their secondary.  Oregons last  two games,  they were really blown up and had to make comebacks to win those tilts , by a combined 6 points. So tonight against an elite group of USC receivers, the Ducks Im betting are in trouble . On D, Im also believe more strongly than most in the Trojans D is a quality group. Note:USC is 10th in opponent red zone touchdown scoring and own  a top-20 rank in points allowed per red zone trip.

The Trojans are 16-6-1 ATS as home underdogs, including 9-1 ATS if they won .625 or less win percentage.

CFB road team (OREGON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 42-84 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the USC Trojans to cover 

Utahs top tier  defence is relentless but they don't get alot of sacks. Tonight I betting Washingtons QB Eason will have time to operate and generate alot more scoring chances then the public and lines-makers are estimating. Im not underestimating how good a team the Utes, have and respect them greatly but my power ranking suggest that the Huskies matchup well against the Utes. Last season the Utes lost twice to Washington  , once as hosts  (in their only home loss of the campaign) and then in the rematch in the Pac-12 title game, scoring a lowly 10 combined points in those defeats. It must be noted HC Chris Peterson is much maligned, for his under performing ways,  and will now be operating in desperation mode under what could easily be his last stand. The wagons are  circled and the plans are in place, and I expect a huge effort from the under valued  home side in this spot. 

Since 2005, a Top 10 ranked team like Utah vs an unranked team like the Huskies off a loss & the line is 5 or less is just 1-13 SU.

CFB  team (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80%) or better  playing a good team (60% to 80%) is 16-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Huskies to cover 

TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Gators (7-1, 4-1 SEC) and Bulldogs (6-1, 3-1) both are ranked among the nation's Top 10 for a second straight meeting. GEORGIA is 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons

Georgia's Jake Fromm will start against Florida for the third consecutive year after directing victories in 2017 (42-7) and last season (36-17). The junior quarterback has completed 70.7 percent of his passes (123 of 174) this season for 1,406 yards, with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Im betting he is key to a victory here vs a a up-trending but not quite ready for prime time Florida side. 

Keys on Defence favors Georgia:Defensively, the Bulldogs rank seventh overall by allowing 266.7 yards; the Gators are 25th while allowing 319.5ypg. Florida ranks ninth with 29 sacks (3.63 average), while Georgia is fifth against the run (85.7 yards per game).

Smart is 9-1 ATS  in road games after a win by 21 or more points as the coach of GEORGIA. ( Georgia 21 Kentucky 0 last time out )

Play on Georgia to cover 

Kansas State played an amazing game last week in a huge upset win vs Oklahoma. Now Im betting they will be in a huge emotional letdown situation vs a up trending Kansas side and very vulnerable. It must also be noted that Kansas State has lost the stat wars in 5 straight games, and own the No. 129th Red Zone Defense in the nation, and are highly over rated despite of their  media blitzed accomplishments. Im betting on QB Carter Stanley to add to his  900 yards in his last three games and 13 touchdowns with a primo effort here in a tilt that could feature a SU upset, but more importantly as far as we are concerned a Jayhawks cover. 

KANSAS is 12-3 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB home team (KANSAS) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an average defense (330 to 390 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 23-3 SU L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

The Thundering Herd are proving themselves highly inconsistent and a team that plays down their competition consistently. Note: Marshall is just  12-26-4 ATS as road favourite against below .500 opposition  .With a big time battle in the  C-USA West division  on the horizon vs No.1 Louisiana Tech  a full concentrated effort vs a team like Rice with no victories is a high probability. The Owls cannot get over the hump, but they are an improved team, that has suffered 4 losses by 10 points or less and viable Home Coming underdogs here this Saturday afternoon. 

MARSHALL is 0-6 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 2 seasons and is 0-6 ATS when playing on a Saturday this season and is also 0-6 ATS  after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Rice to cover 

Old Dominion enters this tilt against Florida International with just one victory this season and that came  against Norfolk State in their opener,. Currently on a 7 game losing streak, things don't look to get much better for a side just going through the motions, as they face a team that needs wins to get a Bowl game invite. Im betting the Monarchs128th offence that averages. only 14.5 PPG will be on the wrong side of a big time beatdown. ODU is 0-6 ATS L/6 as underdogs of 15 points or more and another negative output Is my bet today.

Wilder is 7-16 ATS  as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of OLD DOMINION with the average ppg diff clicking in at -23.4 ppg. 

CFB road team (OLD DOMINION) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games are 10-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida International to cover 

Since 2014 the  Central Michigan Chips have been NIU’s kryptonite and have won four of the last five and Im betting they find a way to turn the trick again. 

Meanwhile, Quinten Dormady will once again take the snaps for the Chips in place of David Moore, starting his fourth game in a row. Dormady has completed 63.7% of his passes this season for 1022 yards. He is backed by  Jonathan Ward who is one of the best running backs in the MAC. He’s averaging 6.8 yards per carry and has 725 yards and nine touchdowns on the campaign. I am expecting the Chips to do more damage then the linesmakers expect vs a banged up NIU defence and get us the cover here today. 

C MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (C MICHIGAN) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 36-1 SU L/10seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Central Michigan to cover 

The Eagles currently on a 3 game win streak are 16-point underdogs entering the rivalry game,  at the time of my selection. GS  is the last team to take down App State by a a 34-14 shocker on Oct. 25, 2018. Since losing to the Eagles over a year ago, App has rolled off 13 straight victories. 

Can  Georgia Southern turn the trick again. Well I don't know , but I do believe according to my projections that we have value at two TDs or more with a Eagles side, that actually has the type of team that an make the Mounties work hard for a win.Georgia Southern ranks No. 7 nationally in rushing offense (259.9 yards per game),  and hardly ever throw. So we all know what's coming at App State , but that still does not make it an easy task for the Mountaineers. 

Look for this big time rivalry to be a physical hard fought battle that will be won on the ground. 

CFB  road team (GA SOUTHERN) - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (GA SOUTHERN) - off a home win by 17 points or more against opponent off a double digit road win are 40-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, undefeated on the season are 17-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Baylor at 7-0 is off a by week and well rested, and very ready and fresh to lay a two way beatdown on a struggling West Virginia side that is just plain over matched here. West Virginia has averaged 14 ppg in their L/2 and Im betting they wont even reach that out put here this week, while they get gashed in a big way resulting in a Baylor cover. Note: BAYLOR is 10-1 ATS L/11 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points : Baylor 40.9 Opponent 16.3 . 

CFB home team  (BAYLOR) - a top caliber team (+14 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (-10 PPG or less differential), after a win by 17 or more points are 27-1 U L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +31.4 ppg. 

Play on Baylor to cover 

UNLV found a way to beat Vanderbilt last time out, and will now be completely wiped out and in a emotional letdown state, vs a Aztecs side that has revenge on board for being upset by UNLV last season at home. San Diego State is currently in top form having held their last three opponents to season low averages, and another shut down performance Im betting will come late Saturday night. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19 ppg.

San Diego State is 22-1 SU and 19-4 ATS off a SUATS victory under Rocky Long when taking on a  .500 or less conference opponent, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS away.

CFB road team (SAN DIEGO ST) - a good team (+5 to +10 PPG diff.) against a terrible team (10 or less PPG diff.) after 7 or more games, in conference games are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs (UNLV) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 11-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate! 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Missouri was completely asleep at the proverbial wheel last week vs previously winless Vanderbilt, and had no energy what so ever after having rolled off 5 straight victories prior to that ugly affair,. Now steaming and embarrassed I expect the Tigers to come out here and roll over a toothless Kentucky offense that is down to using a WR as a QB. Last week, Kentuckys D, stood tall against Georgia in a rain drenched affair but could not move the ball and lost 21-0. The Wildcats might have more success this week, but Im betting it wont be enough against a  Missouri team that will be angry and motivated. 

 KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games.

CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (KENTUCKY) - after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 38-77 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBroad team (MISSOURI) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 35-11 ATS L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Missouri to cover 

Kansas played a great game last week vs Texas, and despite of a humungous effort lost by two points. Now in a huge emotional let down spot Im betting they come out flat tonight against visiting Texas Tech and take it on the proverbial chin. I know the Texas Tech may not inspire bettors and they are off a loss last week, but in the past this has been a positive boost for their betting backers as the program has cashed 33 of their L/45 off a home defeat for a 73% conversion rate. Note:The Red Raiders have won 15 of the L/16 meetings including 8 straight as visitors and have the edge in this spot play.  

KANSAS is 4-16 ATS L/20  after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored .

CFB Road favorites (TEXAS TECH) - average rushing team (+/- 40 RY/G) against a poor team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, in conference games are 61-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

This is a bad matchup for the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors according to my cross reference power rankings, thus getting points is a viable investment opportunity. Hawaii has not won in New Mexico since 1987, and if they finally get it done this week, Im betting they won't cover here vs a Lobos team that can pound the rock on the ground with merciless fashion and that is 2-1 SU at home this season.Not having  suspended QB Sheriron Jones under center will have no impact on this game.

HAWAII is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. HAWAII is 3-15 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. 

NEW MEXICO is 40-21 ATS 61 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (6.2 YPP), in conference games are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in October games are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

  The Mean Green are desperate for wins as  UNT needs three wins in its final five games  to become Bowl eligible and will be ready to play a big game here in Charlotte today. The Mean Green’s  have won the stats battle in 5 of their /7 games this season despite of their sub par 3-4 record .   

 Charlotte is a  side getting far to much respect after two wins this season against stumbling UMass and a FCS school Gardner-Webb . The 49ers have  also been out stated in 4 straight games while accumulating a 0-4 ATS record, are truly fade material. Im betting the experienced  Mean Green  take care of business  in this spot play. 

North Texas to cover

 Oklahoma State got ran over by a under rated Baylor team last week, and will now be primed to bounce back vs Iowa State this week ,a side Im betting my be looking ahead to their tilt with the Oklahoma Sooners next week. Note:  OSU head coach Mike Gundy is 6-0 ATS as a dog when coming off a SU favorite loss.I know Iowa State is hot and on a 3 game win streak, but OSU must note be underestimated and  can also  be explosive behind RB Chuba Hubbard  who leads FBS College football  in rushing with 1,265 yards and future  NFLer and all around athlete  Tylan Wallace  who has 7 TD catches and is averaging 17.2 YPC.  

OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

CFB road team (OKLAHOMA ST) - off a home loss by 14 or more points, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 41-15 ATS L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

 Wow that was one crazy game last week against Kansas that Texas took part in which it  took a last-second field goal to clinch a miraculous 50-48 victory.  The Longhorns are now Im betting going to be a in a letdown spot vs a TCU team that can torch their porous D, ( UT’s defense allows 470 yards  31 PPG which ranks them No. 118 in the nation  and has given up season-high yards in two of their last three tilts.  The Longhorns are exactly what the doctor ordered for a struggling Horned Frog offence, and with that said I look for the Frogs to make it 5 wins in their L/6 matchups vs Texas. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-67 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (TCU) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or better YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 82-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on TCU to cover 

New Mexico State is not a very good team, but Georgia Southern cannot be trusted to cover a 14 points spread, with a offence that ranks 125th in the nation. With that said, and from a completely mathematical standpoint taking points here makes for a viable investment opportunity. 

Aggies are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.

Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Eagles are 5-11 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in October.

Play on New Mexico State to cover 

Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa is in a bit of a offensive funk but they still own the  No. 2 offense  in the nation in Red Zone and are more than capable of getting things going in a explosive way here vs a Northwestern side my power rankings suggest they matchup well against. Meanwhile, Northwestern struggles mightily to score averaging just 12.8 ppt ranking 124th in the country just ahead of Georgia Southerns muted attack and look very much like weak home dogs this week. 

Iowa is 9-0 ATS L/9 as conference road favorites of 15 or less points.

CFB home team SU (NORTHWESTERN) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR), after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 4-26 L/5 seasons SU, with the average ppg diff clicking in at -16.3 ppg. 

CFB Road favorites SU (IOWA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 32-1 L/5 seasons SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.8 ppg.

Play on Iowa to cover 

Buffs have an edge here at home going against  a beat up USC Defence in a in a bad situational spot. Noe: USC has Oregon on board for next week and could easily be looking ahead. Clay Helton  USCs head coach has cashed just 8 of his 23 road games ATS  and is already 0-3 SU this season and 4-11-1 ATS L/16 away. I expect USC do offensive damage ,but Im also betting on Colorado responding in kind in a game Im betting the Buffs cover. 

Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.

Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Colorado to cover 

SMU looked good last week in an easy win vs Temple and are now the frontrunners for the AAC West title  . There were a lot of record setting performances by SMU in that game both personal and institutional  as they put up 655 yards of offence , their most this season so far. The Mustangs were sky high for that game and left it all out on the filed and now on short rest may have very little left in the tank when they face a juiced up Houston this week on the road. Coach Sonny Dykes  has a very talented team  but the Cougars and HC Holgorsen, Im betting won't be so easily pushed around in this tilt. and with revenge on board for a 45-31 loss, as 13-point favorites last season, will now be looking forward to payback  .  Houston is 4-1 ATS the last five as home underdogs and deserve respect at this two plus TD spread or better. 

Houston is 8-1 SU L/9 at home in this series.

SMU is 0-6 ATS  in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons and is 3-12 ATS L/15 in road games off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. 

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 23-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover 

Tulane beat  up on Memphis, by a 40-24 count, last year as a 14-point home dog .Now Im betting they  can turn the trick and more importantly cover here vs a Tigers team that had their undefeated season come to end last week and that will now be in an emotional let down state and very vulnerable. 

Memphis has failed to cover 6 of their L/7 as home chalk of 9 points or less.MEMPHIS is 8-22 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULANE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MEMPHIS) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 14-44 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

 Army enters this game against Georgia State having lost two games in a row including their last game against Western Kentucky where they only scored eight points. This is an Army team I respect but there are obviously issues moving the ball right now. Meanwhile, Georgia State is an explosive offensive side, that always has a punchers chance against heavy weights because of their explosiveness.This is Georgia States 6th game but they   have been favoured in only one of the tilts but still have four wins on the campaign and get my support getting points here as a under rated home dog.

Panthers are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Panthers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in October.Panthers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Georgia lost an ugly OT game by a 20-17 count at  home last time out to South Carolina  and now getting to the College Football Playoff looks like a broken dream which will have the Dogs in a letdown situation here vs a under rated opponent.  Bulldogs QB Jake Fromm,just didn't have it last time out, and in the process showed me he's not ready for prime time games just yet . Meanwhile, the Wildcats are tough blue collar team that is  5-2 ATS as dogs of 10 or more points, and despite of playing with a back up QB Lynn Bowden Jr. who is also their best WR the Cats won a 24-20 battle vs. Arkansas. Bowden who is a complete athlete rushed for 196 yards, and completed 7 of 11 passes, including a TD pass and must be respected here even against Georgia.

GEORGIA is 18-34 ATS  in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a home win are 18-50 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs (KENTUCKY) - off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival are 34-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kentucky to cover 

Mark Rhules undefeated Baylor Bears come to Oklahoma State to take on the Pokes in a Saturday afternoon tilt.   We all know how explosive the Cowboys offence is but the  the defense they are  going against  is holding opponents to just 17ppg and only one opponent the Red Raiders put more than 21 points on the board. Meanwhile, Baylors  QB Charlie Brewer is a extremely smart athlete  that does not make a lot of mistakes and until his last game did not throw an interception. That kind of discipline and mind set really makes the Bears a hard team to beat, thus getting points here in my betting opinion  golden. 

 Rhule is 10-1 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry in all games.Rhule is 23-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached .

Rhule is 38-18 ATS in conference games in his career and , 21-7 ATS away, and 13-1 ATS on the road against opponents coming off a loss like Oklahoma State. ( The Cowboys lost to Texas Tech last time out a team Baylor beat)

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA ST) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-60 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs (BAYLOR) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 44-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Charlotte continues to get to much respect from the linesmakers as they enter this tilt off three straight losses with their only two wins this season coming against FCS school Gardner Webb and one FBS program that is in a shambles UMass. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky despite of losing their starting QB a few weeks ago continue to show upward momentum having  won three 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 behind a very strong D, that is allowing just 18.5 ppg. 

Bottom line here is that Western Kentucky according to my power rankings is set the superior side playing at home with revenge for a ugly 40-14 loss last season,  now will be primed for payback. 

CFB  A home team (W KENTUCKY) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 23-2 SU L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.2 ppg. 

Western Kentucky to cover 

  Old Dominion enters this game in complete disarray and  has dropped five straight  games SU  and have been out yarded by almost 100 ypg while UAB has won 5 of their L/6 and gaining momentum.  UAB has held  3 of your last four opponents to season-low yards, and are currently on a 15 game home winning streak and more than capable of exploding here today and cashing as DD home chalk . 

UAB is 6-0 ATS  in October games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 21.3 ppg.

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UAB) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UAB Blazers to cover 

  Well rested Pittsburgh goes against a struggling Syracuse side this week .  Pittsburgh has just one loss and contending for the ACC Coastal. Pitts key to success is their blue collar old school  defense, which is  ranked No. 2  in the nation with sacks (27)  .  Meanwhile, Syracuse is downtrodden and  just cannot move the ball consistently especially on the ground and in their 3 losses have been held to an average of  1.16 yards a carry. and have been out yarded to a tune of  (-116 YPG) vs FBS opposition.Tonight Im betting Pittsburgh D controls the line of scrimmage and their offence does more than enough damage against a porous Orange D,   and subsequently takes care of business here on the road. 

Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Panthers are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Play on the Pittsburgh Panthers to cover 

 I think alot of bettors feel FAU is the better team, and that the way the media has portrayed them here for this Friday night matchup and now the linesmakers are taking the lead by making the Owls favorites in a game that should be closer to a FG (-3). But according to my power ranking numbers Marshall is under rated and deserves my support getting points. It must be noted that FAU ranks 96th in the country in yard per play  on offense and defense while Marshall is ranked 44th in YPP and 68th on defence. I also like Marshalls offensive line, better than Florida Atantic's group and they way they protect their run game, which makes for long grinding drives, which will take FAU out of their  flow when they finally get the ball. To this point in the season Marshall has struggled with Red Zone efficiency thanks to some very unlucky circumstances , bad calls, and just about everything under the sun, but Im expecting that to change. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 1-9 ATS l/10 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Lane Kiffin’s  is just 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS in back-to-back tilts at FAU Stadium. 

CFB Road underdogs (MARSHALL) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 

With the previously injured QB Khalil Tate  back with the Arizona  Wildcats they now look explosive as was the case when they lit up  Colorado for 400 yards, in an upset win. Meanwhile, Washington remains an enigma of a team as was the case last week against Stanford as they were outgunned and outgained  482-294,  and scored just one TD in a loss. So one team Arizona has momentum and the other the Huskies are downtrodden and looking vulnerable, making getting points with a Wildcats side that has only failed to cash once in their L/6 times as PAC12 tilts.

ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 8-30 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to cover 

Wyoming enters this contest pounding the ball down opposition D, piling up an average of just under 250 yards per contest via the rush.  Meanwhile, San Diego States offence has been less than consistent,  recording just  20.6 points per game and Im betting they struggle to score in this tilt vs a stout Wyoming D. 

Wyoming Cowboys have picked up wins in three of the last four contests in San Diego. San Diego State has not played all that well at home of late losing 3 of their L/4 SU at home and Im betting the Boyz getting us the cover here in this spot.

Aztecs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games.

SAN DIEGO ST is 2-11 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game .SAN DIEGO ST is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

WYOMING is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.WYOMING is 12-2 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.

Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in October.

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WYOMING) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 32-9 L/5 seasons  for a  78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Wyoming Cowboys to cover 

It never easy playing the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium as was evident when Michigan in 2017 and Ohio State in 2018 visited and  were subsequently upset. It must be noted that Penn State barely survived its last trip to Iowa City in 2017. It took a Trace McSorley to Juwan Johnson touchdown pass on the final play of the game to squeak out a 21-19 victory. Im betting on another close game here and for the Hawkeyes to get us the cover.

Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.Hawkeyes are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.

Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Play on Iowa to cover 

Cincinnati is getting alot of respect here as they are being favored on the road vs the Houston Cougars and rightly so. 

Defensively, the Cougars are still a work in progress after a horrendous stat line last season, and offensively they now have to work with a new QB as starter D'Eriq King is out for season ( Redshirt ). Against this type of over powering Bearcats D, this will be a huge problem for them today. Im betting on Cincinnati putting a load of points on the board vs a swiss cheese defence, while the Cougars struggle to score against the Bearcats top tier stop units.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games are 9-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs (HOUSTON) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 7-26 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 

Washington State enters this game off two straight losses, but don't be fooled by their current status, as this well coached team behind their air raid offence can do a lot of damage when its wide awake and primed to perform. I know that Arizona State is now ranked (18th) in the nation, with a 4-1 record, but Im betting their over rated. It must also be noted Herm Edwards is just 5-12 ATS as a favourite while Mike Leach is 7-2 ATS on the road off two losses and a perfect 4-0 ATS off two losses period and more than capable of bouncing back. 

WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season.Leach is 22-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.

CFB road team (WASHINGTON ST) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 63-29 ATS L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington State to cover 

Im betting on a hard nosed  defensive battle  here today as Michigan State’s No. 6 overall ranked defense goes against undefeated  Wisconsin’s No. 1 overall ranked defense in a game that Im betting will be closely contested and brutal. It must be noted that when the linesmakers expect a low scoring away game when Mich state plays  - Dantonio is 9-1 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.

MSU  is  9-2 ATS as Big Ten dogs versus an undefeated opposition, and 8-2 ATS as a conference road dog of 13 points or less. 

WISCONSIN is 0-6 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB team (WISCONSIN) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80% or better ) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 14-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

  Charlie Strong and USF really need this game  here  and Im betting they come up with a big effort vs a banged up BYU side, with their starting QB Zach Wilson on the sidelines with a thumb injury and  their top RB Tyson Wiliqms gone for the season  with a ACL . Even without these top tier guys on offence the Mormons have really struggled to move the ball consistently as they are the  3rd worst team in the nation in Time Of Possession this season. Combination of Charlie Strong desperation and the Cougars diminished  key roster positions, make the home dogs a viable wagering opportunity here. 

Note: BYU is off a bye week but in the past that has not been a favourable situation for their betting backers as they are 2-11 ATS L/13 with rest. 

Play on South Florida to cover 

 The Rutgers  Scarlet Knights are hands down the worst team in the Big 10, a team that have scored just 23 points in its last four games combined. Meanwhile, Indiana did not look out of place vs Ohio State and  looked good vs Michigan States top tier D, and  has blown out UConn and Eastern Illinois and played well against a under rated  Ball State side,  winning  by a a 34-24 and according to my projections are strong smash down chalk in this spot vs a team they very much match up well against. Indiana (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) has lost four straight conference games, and now needs three more wins to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 and will be fully focused here to get the victory and make it convincing. 

Note:Rutgers has lost 10 straight true road games, since Oct. 14, 2017. This season has been equally unkind with two losses by the combined score of 82-0.

RUTGERS is 4-14 ATS  as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points since 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under -32 ppg.

Play on the Indiana Hoosiers to cover 

 Western Michigan is an experienced side, but their undisciplined penalty taking is a red flag for me. Their one of the worst team in the nation in penalties, and shooting themselves in the proverbial foot is not out of the question.  Note:MIAMI OHIO is 7-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons. 

 Meanwhile, Miami O has is a well coached team that has been very competitive in MAC action of late cashing 8 of their L/9 opportunities vs conference opposition. and off a upset win vs the Buffalo Bulls two weeks ago. Now well rested of their bye week,Im betting on them hanging tough here again vs an explosive side.Note: Martin is 6-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog as the coach of MIAMI OHIO . 

Lester is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of W MICHIGAN. 

Miami O to cover

 No. 20 Virginia prepare to go Helmut to helmut  in Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens as the Cavaliers visit the Miami Hurricanes in Friday night ACC action. Last week the Canes came out flat against VTech and were down 28 -0 at the half, before mounting a furious comeback, but still lost 42-35. I know the recency bias of that loss and the inconsistencies of the Canes this season may not make this a popular pick, but from a matchup perspective my projections tell a different story. I know the Cavs are a well coached team, and they don;t make a lot of mistakes, but they have to this point in the season, been way over rated for my liking and after today I expect the pundits will have a less enthusiastic  respect for them. 

CFB Home favorites (MIAMI) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games . are 23-3 ATS L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami Fl to cover 

[QB] 09/18/2019 - Collin Hill is out for season ( ACL )

New Mexico enters this tilt with a  2-3  record  , while Colorado State is 1-5 with the  win coming  over a  FCS  opponent in Western Illinois that is 0-5 on the season.  Both teams still have meetings with No. 14 Boise State still to come, so for each team, the path to six wins and bowl eligibility means this contest is  extremely  important and will be a hard fought event which makes getting points golden in my betting opinion. 

COLORADO ST is 0-7 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less  yards per return over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO ST is 2-10 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 season.

CFB team (NEW MEXICO) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 79-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

 ULMonroe is battle tested after taking on Iowa State, Memphis , and Florida State this season. They did not look out of place in those tilts, behind a high powered offence, and tonight against Texas State Im betting we see just how explosive they can be vs a good , but not quite ready for prime time Texas State D. Yes, Texas State has won two in a row and their last one coming against FCS Nicholls state 24-3 and the win previous to that was a ugly 37-34 win vs Georgia State. which was less than impressive Note: Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.

Warhawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Bobcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Bobcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Play on UL Monroe to cover 

Look for LA Lafayette to control time of possession and bleed the clock via a top tier rush attack and to subsequently shock an explosive App State team.

LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons. LA LAFAYETTE is 17-3 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games

CFB  road team (APPALACHIAN ST) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 39-80 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

UL Lafayette to cover 

The Washington Huskies were sky-high after taking out the  USC Trojans  last time out in a game they had circled on their calendars for a while, and now Im betting they are in a letdown spot vs a Stanford side that is slowly getting better as the season progresses and that held an explosive Oregon team to a season low 320 yards of offence in late September. It must be noted that the sled dogs  have lost five straight times as visitors in this series, and are bankroll depleting 0-11 ATS after playing USC, as well as  1-5 ATS as Pac-12 road favs. 

Take the points with Stanford to cover 

Pittsburgh upset a very good UCF team a couple of weeks ago, and were in a letdown spot last week, and barely got by Delaware by a 17-14 count. Now refreshed and ready to go, Pittsburgh behind a top tier D, that has limited 3 of their L/4 opponents under their season offensive average look like viable bets here as underdogs vs a team that they have beaten 3 straight times a visitors .

Duke is a very good team but the football program has not thrived in this role going  1-11 ATS as a home favorite under 7 points  and they have failed to cover five in a row as ACC chalk off a SU underdog winner ( Duke took out VTech last week by DDs as road dogs)

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they forced no turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs (PITTSBURGH) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 100-52 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 52-22 ATS L/27 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Pittsburgh Panthers to cover 

Last week Ohio State obliterated Nebraska on their own home field by a score of 48-7. It was an absolutely dominating performance. Now because of that tilt, and how powerful the Buckeyes have looked so far this season, we are getting a recency bias line to bet into with the visiting underdog Michigan State. I myself am of the opinion that this is one of the better Michigan State teams coach Dantonio has put on the field in a while and with a top 10 scoring defense and a No. 4 overall defense taking points here is a golden opportunity for positive cash flow into our bankrolls.

Note: The visitor has cashed 8 of the L/10 times these teams have played. 

OHIO ST is 7-19 ATS L/26 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. OHIO ST is 0-6 ATS after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

HC Dantonio is 17-3-2 ATS away with conference revenge, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated sides like Ohio State.

CFB team (OHIO ST) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80% or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 12-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites (OHIO ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, undefeated on the season are 14-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Old Dominion has lost 3 straight since defeating FCS Norfolk State in their opener and  things don't look to get much better, here this week vs a revenge minded Western Kentucky team that lost 37-34 at home last season. to the Monarchs   ODU is just   2-8 ATS L/10  in  Sun Belt tilts and is fade material .  The key here to what Im betting will be a cover for the road team is the  Toppers  No. 19 ranked  overall defense,  that is limiting opposition offences to  to just 3 yards per rush. Im betting on a shutdown performance for the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has won their L/2 visits here and get the nod again. 

OLD DOMINION is 1-9 ATS  in home games after playing a non-conference game.

CFB Home underdogs (OLD DOMINION) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 7-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

  Nebraska a proverbial  middle weight  got flattened last week by a heavy weight in  Ohio State in embarrassing fashion, at home in front of their own illumjini and will now have a hard time getting up of the matt without being a little wobbly. I know the Huskers are now in desperation mode , but with bruised egos and mediocre talent they will have their hands full again this week vs the Cats. .  Northwestern has covered 4 straight in this series on the road and previous to last weeks hard fought loss at Wisconsin were riding a  8-game Big Ten road win  streak and must not be underestimated in the visitors role.  Note: Fitzgerald is 6-0 ATS in road games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Northwestern is also a perfect 12-0 ATSL/12 as conference road dogs winning 9 of those game SU.  

Northwestern to cover 

 Last week the Buffalo Bulls looked like they were in a hang over spot when they faced Miami O on the road. Previous to that loss they beat up on a pretty good Temple team. Meanwhile Miami came out on fire, after being humiliated the week before 76-5 by Ohio State and were also getting some good breaks and calls from the officials. Now with that game behind them the Bulls come home to take on the Ohio Bobcats, a team Im betting they matchup very well against. 

Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulls are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bulls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.Bulls are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings and Ohio is 0-4 ATS L/4 visits to Buffalo. 

 BUFFALO is also 6-0 ATS  in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.OHIO U is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).

CFB road team vs. the money line (OHIO U) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, a su bar performing team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 1-26 SU l/10 seasons for a 97% go against conversion rate.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Buffalo to cover 

 Virginia Tech comes off a Friday night  home game last week where they were dominated by the Duke Blue Devils and now this week Im betting they get their proverbial butts handed to them again. HC Fuentes Hokies just don't have a viable recruiting program any more and the talent levels are beginning to suffer, and that will become evident as this season progresses. Here on the road vs Miami look for the Canes top tier D that is  holding opposing teams to just 16 PPG on defense  and an efficient offence that is   producing  31 PPG  to dominate on both sides of the line of scrimmage .   The wild card here belongs to the Canes behind  QB Jarren Williams (1,027 yards, 7 TD)  who is fast improving game changer with a high potential outlook. 

Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

Hokies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.

Hokies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.

Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CFB Favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 44-1 SU L/27 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at 21+ ppg. 

Miami Fl to cover 

 The Bronze Stalk Trophy is up for grabs when these two MAC rivals go head to head here this Saturday. The Huskies are 17-3 L/20 in this series SU including 10 straight SU and get my support here again. I know NIU  has suffered three straight road losses against P5 opponents, but now Im betting being home and facing a team more on their own level that they have an edge behind a top tier D. 

BALL ST is 0-6 ATS  in road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.N ILLINOIS is 30-15 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). 

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 

Im betting on these two grounds attacks pounding away on each other today in a hard fought battle until the very end. 

AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Calhoun is 11-21 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry as the coach of AIR FORCE.

Road favorites (AIR FORCE) - excellent rushing team (230 or more RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games are 8-26 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 

 The Frogs are 6-2 L/8 in this series SU and  are 40-15 on the road since 2009. That’s the third-most road wins in the country. Note:  TCU freshman quarterback Max Duggan is going home. He was Iowa’s Gatorade Player of the Year in 2018 and he will be motivated to shine here today.  Yes, this will be a hard fought game, but the difference maker will be TCUS ferocious ground attack which will make taking points golden. 

CFB home team  (IOWA ST) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 4-30 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TCU to cover 

 Im a big fan of  Iowas HC Kirk Ferentz’. He has assembled a hard nosed blue collar D that  is allowing just 8.5 PPG  and must be respected vs a Michigan team that continues down trending. 

Harbaugh versus undefeated opponents, is  0-8 ATS in the last eight games overall. 

Michigan is just 4-10 ATS L/10 at home as 9 point or less favs.

CFB Road underdogs (IOWA) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 38-12 L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover 

San Jose State has not been favored in a few years stretching back 27 games, and despite of being an improved football program of late,  they just don't deserve such a lofty chalk status. The Spartans average 71 plays per game and just 5.79 yards per play and after watching alot of their highlights just do not look like they have the guns to do a great deal of damage against a ugly New Mexico D. Yes, I know the San Jose State beat Arkansas but that was because of some huge offensive plays and not consistent vertical ball movement. Meanwhile, the Lobos can move the ball, but so far their red zone efficiency has been lacking, something I also bet will come to end here tonight against the Sparties. 

NEW MEXICO is 45-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

 Ive seen some crazy occurrences over the years, but witnessing the Bruins  come from behind win  against No. 19 Washington State last week was one of the all time gridiron freak shows  that I can recollect . The Bruins came back from a  49-17  deficit by scoring 50 points in the second half to pull off a miraculous 67-63 victory despite of allowing 720 yards in offence. A 6-1 turnover ratio was the difference maker.  It was the 3rd largest comeback win ever in NCAA history, and now Im betting on Chip Kelleys Bruins team being in a major let down situation and now going against a side  that will be fired up with revenge on board for last seasons 31-30 loss to the Bruins . The Wildcats when playing off a by bye week against an opponent coming off a SUATS victory are 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS at home last 9 opportunities.

I know alot of pundits think that UCLA might be turning a corner , after that last effort but if you look at the stats and slash lines for the Bruins, its obvious despite of last weeks crazy performance that this is highly not a probable hypothesis. 

UCLA is 8-20 ATS L/28 in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game .

UCLA is 7-19 ATS in road games against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season.

Sumlin is 12-3 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less) in all games . Sumlin is 21-9 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - in conference games, off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog are 27-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to cover 

Utah State has been merciless against opponents at home of late as is evident by the following trend. This team does not take their foot off the pedal in start to finish wipeout wins. Note:  UTAH ST is 7-0 ATS  in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 40.6 ppg. 

Utah State after  playing against a staunch San Diego State D,   will be ready to explode offensively against a Colorado State side allowing more than 40 ppg on the season.  As far a s aback door cover , I doubt the banged up Rams who are expected to play without their top RB Marvin Kinsey (shoulder) and  QB Colin Hill (ACL) this week to be much of a threat. 

Utah State is 17-0-1 ATS  L/18  as a favorite of at least three points facing a team averaging at least 30 points per game with the L/5 wins coming by margins of 55,39,39,42,31 points. 

Play on Utah State to cover 

An explosive looking Ohio State heads to Lincoln to go  against  up trending  but not quite ready for prime time Nebraska. The Buckeyes are coming off a merciless clobbering ,over Miami (Ohio) at home by a  76-5  count .  Ohio State has looked like a championship calibre team behind Quarterback Justin Fields who is already making a strong case for the Heisman Trophy and here today vs a Nebraska team that has been in close affairs vs much lesser sides, Im expecting a beatdown by the away side, as this tilt progresses. My own projections estimate a 20+ point win by the Buckeyes, making this a viable side option backing Ohio State. 

NEBRASKA is 1-9 ATS  in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NEBRASKA is 0-7 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (OHIO ST) - allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Road favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 44-1 SU with the average ppg diff of +23.1 ppg going on the board. 

 CFB Road favorites (OHIO ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 52-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio State to cover 

 The Kentucky Wildcats are suffering with QB injuries as both their starters QB Terry Wilson and Sawyer Smith are injured or less than 100%. Bob Stoops troops can still play top tier D, but having their offence limited thanks to their QB issues makes them fade material here vs South Carolina this week. 

The Cats are 0-10 ATS versus conference foes when coming off a double- digit loss . KENTUCKY is 20-36 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25  or more yards/play since 1992.

South Carolina to cover 

Oklahoma State is off an emotional hard fought affair that they lost to Texas last week and could now easily be in an emotional letdown spot . It must be noted that Cowboys HC Mike Gundy is 1-3 ATS as a favorite versus undefeated Big 12 opposition  and 1-5 ATS as conference home favorite of 9.5 points or less. Oklahoma State is built to run and gun through with their efficiency leaning on their air attack which is not a good omen here vs a Kansas State side, with a top tier defensive secondary that is ranked 2nd in the nation, allowing just 118.7 YPG. HC Chris Kleiman is on a 24-0 SU road run dating back to his days with NDSU and knows how to get his troops prepared to play on the road. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 8-21 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32 or more minutes TOP, 21 or more  FD's per game. 

CFB Home favorites (OKLAHOMA ST) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 26-60 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 

 LA Techs Skip Holtz despite of not getting alot of respect as a favourite in the recent past is now  2-0 ATS as chalk this season so far and Im betting he makes it 3 in a row here this Saturday vs Rice a football program with no recent tradition of winning as is evident by 6 victories in  the last 3 seasons combined. The Owls had alot of players back from last season, but that does not mean much considering their previous performances. So far this season Rice is just 0-4 SU losing the stats battle all 4 times. Louisiana Tech’s has owned this series of late going a perfect  5-0 SU with the  average  margin of  victory coming by 48 PPG and Im betting on another big time win here this Saturday.

Rice is  0-7 ATS as dogs of less than 17 points versus team with a record of  .600 or better.

 LOUISIANA TECH is 8-0 ATS  against teams who commit 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season.LOUISIANA TECH is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.  LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.

CFB  road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - good team (outgain opp. by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) against a struggling team (outgained by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-1 SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.1 .

Play on LA Tech to cover 

I have alot of respect for both these football programs, but I feel Cincinnati is the superior side, yes even here in Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Add to that the motivation of the Bearcats wanting revenge for a embarrassing 38-21 loss  to the Herd at home during the 2017 season, and we have a favourable situation laying lumber here with Luke Fickells  Cincinnati.

The  Bearcats are also off a bye week and well rested, and will have a freshness edge vs a Marshall side that  is just 0-5 ATS in their L/5 in back to back homes games which is the situation this Saturday.

The key this week will be the ability of the Bearcats top tier  front 7 to limit the Thundering Herds key mode of moving the ball  ....which is their ground game. 

CFB home team (MARSHALL) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more  YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are  21-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 

Sonny dykes really has the SMU Mustangs playing good football, but after upsetting TCU 41-38  last week I can see his up-trending  team being in a letdown situation vs a under rated opponent playing at home. I know Charlie Strong may not inspire bettors but according to my projections we have value with the rested home dog. 

Mustangs are just 3-12-1 SU and 3-13 ATS away when coming off a SU underdog win, including 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in conference tilts.

SMU is 2-15 ATS after a win by 3 or less points.

Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Mustangs are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. 

Play on the USF Bulls to cover 

 Florida Atlantics Lane, Kiffin is 2-2 this season,. but Im betting they come out on top here today at  Jerry Richardson Stadium  as they have revenge on board for a  27-24 defeat vs Charlotte as a 16-point home favorite in the final game of the 2018 season, costing the Owls to become Bowl eligible  .  Kiffin owns an 8-3 ATS record when he has revenge on the road and with the fan base getting restless you can bet he will have his team revved  up to perform this week.

vOwls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

49ers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games in September.

CFB road team  (FLA ATLANTIC) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a struggling defensive team (34 or more PPG), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 38-6 SU L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover 

Matt Rhule's Baylor a side that has out yarded their opponents by 235 jpg is going to be really primed to pull of the underdog upset here at home vs visiting Iowa State where they  are  5-0 ATS  L/5 at home. Last season the Bears lost 28-14  on the road at Ames, and now with revenge on board should really be fired up to get some payback. Note: Teams in this series with revenge have cashed 10 of the L/12 opportunities. 

HC Rhule is 15-3 ATS L/18 against conference opposition  like the Cyclones coming off a double-digit win.Rhule is 7-0 ATS  in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached since 1992.Rhule is 11-1 ATS in home games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

IOWA ST is 6-17 ATS  in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BAYLOR) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 32-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baylor to cover 

 After being bruised and battered and humiliated by Ohio State last week Im betting Miami O, wont be in the best of spirits, as they face a Buffalo team entering this game  with momentum and confidence after they themselves pummelled a very good Temple squad last week.

CFB home team vs. the money line (MIAMI OHIO) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games is 3-33 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites (MIAMI OHIO) - after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game are 4-23 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (BUFFALO) - after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

Middle Tennessee State started their season covering vs Michigan but last time out were blasted by DDs by a under rated Duke team. Now this week I look for the Blue Raiders  to be capable underdogs vs a Iowa side that has a tendency of playing down to opponents, and is also looking ahead to playing the Michigan Wolverines next week. 

MIDDLE TENN ST is 27-13 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points and are 4-1 ATS L/5 non conference road dogs of 14 points or more.

This selection is based on the mathematics of my projections vs this line. 

Play on the Middle Tenn State to cover 

Coming off a 41-18 road victory over Middle Tennessee and a bye week, Duke enters ACC play as a possible dark horse in the Coastal Division and viable underdog vs a chaotic style defence that Virginia Tech utilizes. Tonight Im betting on the Blue Devils under rated QB Quentin Harris to handle the aggressive   Virginia Tech defense. Harris owns a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio of four to one so far in the season and is the wild card here. 

Note:  Well rested  Duke off a bye week has revenge on board for a  31-17 loss to VTech as 7-point home fav last year and will be primed for pay back.

The Dog is 5-1 ATSL/6 in this series.

DUKE is 9-0 ATS  as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992. DUKE is 6-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (VIRGINIA TECH) - with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season are 30-68 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover

Rocky Longs San Diego State Aztecs have won two straight to begin their season, and look very much to be under rated here at home today vs a good but also over rated Utah State football program. This is a classic setup of offence vs defence. The Aggies are explosive, but the Aztecs D, is of the top tier variety as is evident by allowing just 248 yards and 8 points per game so far. 

SD St is a perfect 4-0 ATS L/4 as a home underdog.

Aztecs coach Rocky Long is 12-1 ATS in his career as a conference dog when coming off back to back  SU/ATS wins.

UTAH ST is 10-22 ATS in road games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Long is 11-2 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of SAN DIEGO ST.

CFB Road favorites (UTAH ST) - excellent rushing team (230 or more RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 10-33 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 52-21 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 

Georgia won 20-19 in 2017 at South Bend the last time these two football programs met. Now the rematch switches to Athens. The Dawgs are just 4-10 ATS L/14 at home with non conference revenge. 

This game is of ultra importance to the Fighting Irish as they have no conference championship game to play in, thus this becomes a must-win for Notre Dame and Im betting they come out here like a rabid dogs and metaphorically ready to fight to the death. Meanwhile  Georgia can afford to suffer a loss and still be a front runner come selection Sundayand may not play with the same tenacity they would in a SEC tilt. Note: Underdogs of more than 12 points who won 12 or more games the previous season are 11-0 ATS over the L/4 seasons ( Notre Dame fits the bill and gets my support)

Kelly is 7-0 ATS  after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached

CFB road team (NOTRE DAME) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 or less YPP), after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs (NOTRE DAME) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100 or more YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have beat up on 3 inferior programs to start their campaign, and Texas in their only real battle, vs LSU (45-38) showed they are still up-trending despite of regression worries from the pundits . I know Oklahoma State has won 4 straight close battles in this series, but   Texas according to my  power rankings is the superior side, in a tilt vs a Cowboys team has failed to cover its L/7 Big12 openers. At anything lower than -7 Im laying here. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 0-7 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992.

TEXAS is 13-4 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

CFB Home favorites (TEXAS) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 25-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to cover 

Stanford was annihilated last week by UCF in a DD beatdown. The Cardinal were in an unfortunate letdown spot last week after a loss to USC the previous week. However, after their last embarrassing effort I expect a bounce back effort here at home where the Cardinal are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as a home underdog dating back 12 seasons, including 4-0 SUATS with head coach David Shaw. It must also be noted that Oregon has only cashed 4 of their L/21 away from Eugene .
 

OREGON is 1-8 ATS after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

STANFORD is 18-6 ATS L/24  versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play STANFORD is 28-13 ATS L/41 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 19-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover 

New Mexico does not have a culture of winning in place and have now lost 17 of their L/21  SU overall. Davies HC  Lobos  played their hearts out against Notre Dame last week despite of being pounded by a 66-14 count and won't have enough left in the tank to be near enough dominant to cover the number this week in this instate rivalry game. 

Davie is 2-9 ATS in home games after playing a non-conference game as the coach of NEW MEXICO.Davie is 6-18 ATS (as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Mexico State to cover 

Missouri has not beaten South Carolina since the 2016 season, but Im betting that comes to end here this week at home vs a side that was battered and beaten physically last week by Alabama . it must be noted that Carolina maybe getting too much respect out of the gate this season, as they have been outgunned and out-gained by their 2 FBS opponents this season. Last season the Tigers  lost 37-35 to the Gamecocks but  were the superior side in the stats battle outgaining the Birds by a  490-377 count . Im expecting those numbers to be replicated and or bettered this week, and for Missouri to get the cover in convincing fashion. 

Missouri have dominated their last two opponents outscoring them by a 88-7 count.MISSOURI is 16-5 ATS  in home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg.

CFB home team  (MISSOURI) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 24-2 SU with the average point per game diff registering at +20.2 ppg. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

UCF is off a convincing full throttle beat down of Stanford last week, and could easily find themselves in a natural letdown spot here vs Pittsburgh this week. Meanwhile, the Panthers thanks to a hard nosed D, and athletic top tier secondary gave Penn State all they could handle last week in a 17-10 loss and Im betting will be  a handful for the Knights here in this spot.  

UCF is 0-13 SU in its school history in games against current FBS teams when the Knights are coming off a current FBS affiliated foe.

PITTSBURGH is 10-0 ATS L/10 after 2 consecutive games where they forced no turnovers since 1992. 

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCF) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77%conversion rate.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

RedHawks coach Chuck Martin is 26-14 ATS as an underdog and also owns a 6-1 ATS mark as a non-conference underdog of 21 or more points. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 2-6 ATS as favorites of 34 or more points against MAC opposition and fade material on this big a chalk line. I know Ohio State is the vastly superior side, but from a mathematical standpoint my projections make this a value underdog line. 

CFB Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (MIAMI OHIO) - after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home favorites of 31.5 or more points (OHIO ST) - with a good offense - averaging 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami O to cover 

Akron s offence is practically non existent and has scored only 15.7 PPG, which is 124th in the country, and they won't be able to keep up with a team that just put up 42 points vs Mississippi State last week. This game has total annihilation written all over it. Note: CFB road team vs. the money line (TROY) - excellent offensive team (440  or moreYPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-1 SU L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18 ppg. 

Play on Troy to cover 

 Im impressed with UL Lafayette and their top tier running game and because Ohio continues to struggle against the run, Im betting their a live under appreciated dog . The Cajuns return five senior starting offensive linemen  and are a tough experienced group that can protect the three headed monster of  Raymond Calais, Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell  who combined   2900  plus yards on the ground last season averaging  6.7 ypc. This season already this explosive trio is   averaging 8.1 ypc. Im betting on more of the same dynamic action today vs an Ohio run D, that is allowing  5.2 yards per carry this season, ranking them a dismal 114th in the nation at not stopping the run.

LA LAFAYETTE is 15-3 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 game.

CFB home (OHIO U) - after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 4-25  SU  L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover

UMass is looking like a dismal football program right now but Coastal Carolina in only their 3rd season of FBS football should not be this big fav on the road , not even against this horrid group. It must be noted that Coastal has only one road win by 11 points or more, since joining  the FBS and with their Sunbelt opener coming next week vs App State they may not be fully focused here , making the ugly home dog a value selection on this line. 

UMass to cover 

Syracuse after getting run over by Clemson last week in a much anticipated game will be ina letdown situation vs a under rated Western Michigan side  with 14 starters returning and that  put 352 yards against a stingy  Michigan State defense in their opener  and 7 TDs vs Georgia State last week .Considering  Dino Barbers team have been run over to the tune 675 yards in the last two tilts  things may not get much better today.

CFB road team (W MICHIGAN) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18 . 

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

Utah visits USC on Friday night. On the opening line a couple of land locked sports books opened this game as a pickem before the public and some sharps scrambled in with their money on Utah. But now at +4 we have value with the Trojans at home. Note:The home team has won 6 straight in the series and has covered 7 of the last 8 meetings. With that said, Im betting USC  behind the big arm of  Kedon Slovis’ and a strong running game and  a defense that is top 20 in opponent red zone scoring and top 25 in sacks will get the job done and deliver to us some profits here this evening. It must be noted that USCs new air raid system is something that has given the Utes alot of problems of late, as they are 0-5 ATS L/5 vs a team using the air raid offence. 

Whittingham is 19-30 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH.

CFB  home team (USC) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 29-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the USC to cover 

FIU may not inspire bettors but they have a history of competing, and have cashed 8 of their L/9 against a 500 team like LA Tech. Skip Holtz has never been a coach to back laying points, and I really feel this is one of his lesser teams and lack value on a TD or more line as favs.

Davis is 17-2 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992 which was the case in their last game vs New Hampshire. 

Holtz is 2-9 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 as the coach of LOUISIANA TECH

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 50-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Take the points with Florida International to cover 

The Orange were annihilated last week as favs by a  63-20 count at Maryland. Im betting that this team was more focused on their upcoming game against the Tigers than the Terps.  Despite of public recency bias, based on results Dino Babers knows how to slow Clemson as Syracuse only lost by 4 at Clemson a year ago, and was undefeated at  6-0 at home in 2018 and must be respected getting this many points in the Carrier Dome. Note: Clemson is 0-8 ATS L/8  on the road as 20 or more favs. 

Take the points with Syracuse to cover 

Hawaii despite of being porous on D, have enough offensive weapons to stay within the number here vs a over rated Washington side. The public and pundits are expecting the Huskies to bounce back this week after being upset by California 20-19. But Im betting this weeks expected  victory will not come so easily . Note: In the L/14 seasons, ranked teams after a loss like Washington have gone 244-300-14 (44%) against the spread (ATS) .  From a head to head historical reference Washington leads the series 3-2 SU with the last two meetings featuring wins for the Huskies by 1point at Hawaii in 2014, and by 8 points  at home in 2011. 

Play on Hawaii to cover 

Florida has owned Kentucky at home winning 15 straight here vs the Wildcats, and Im betting nothing changes today as the home team goes into battle without their starting QB Terry Wilson who is expected to be out for the season with a knee injury. Because of the injury the line is a plus TD for the favs Florida . Im big on value lines, but Im betting this is not one of them. Note:Kentucky is 3-23 ATS in its last twenty-six straight-up losses at home.

Mullen is 10-0 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. ( Mullens team 29.2 vs  opp 15 ppg)

CFB road team (FLORIDA) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, after allowing 6 points or less last game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (FLORIDA) - good rushing team from last season - averaged 200 or more rushing yards/game, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 44-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Florida Gators to cover 

 After being blasted by KState 52-0 last week it might be hard for some to see some light when its comes to BGSU. However , I do expect the Green Falcons to bounce back this week in their home coming tilt and make a game of this vs visiting Louisiana  Tech.  Im betting on the Falcons  to establish a run game with Clair, Frye, and a big OL, and keep themselves within the number. 

Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

Falcons are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

 Bowling Green to cover 

Im betting on two long time instate non conference rivals to go to head in a real battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy this week, despite of recency bias favoring Iowa. The Hawkeyes are just 2-5 ATS as conference road favs and the home team in this series has covered 3 straight times . I know Iowa State did not look great in their opener, but   Iowa State is coming off a  bye week and has spent that time getting energized and preparing for their big rivalry matchup.

Campbell is 9-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of IOWA ST.

Play on Iowa State to cover