I know how powerful Ohio State can be, but Penn State Im betting can keep this game close enough to cover via a grinding ground game that is capable of turning this game into a slow crawl in the trenches. Note: Day is 0-6 ATS  in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry as the coach of OHIO ST. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (PENN ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons SU  for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game are 45-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Wow what an emotional  hangover Syracuse must have after going into Death Valley and taking a big lead  and then falling apart late and eventually losing to Clemson.  The Orange had an opportunity of lifetime and blew it. Not a good situation for them here as Im betting they will have problems mustering the energy needed to take out a hungry Notre Dame side.  ND as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, and  they are coming off a victory of 4 points or more are 10-1 ATS . The Irish are 5-0 SUATS L/5 vs the ACC.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS  against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Both these teams are off 2 straight wins with back up QBs at the helm. Conventional handicapping has alot of pundits on Lafayette, but Im going to take a contrarian view here tonight in a tilt that features strong  defensive units sitting inside the Top 35 in scoring defense (ULL 21st, USM 35th). Both have almost identical  yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game with the superior offensive numbers belonging to Lafayette . Despite of that I like home field advantage to be a strong , advantage for this Southern Miss football program . key catalyst Im betting for Southern /Miss  will be Frank Gore, Jr., who continues to lead the ground game with 568 rushing yards and four TDs. He averages 81.1 yards per contest rushing and 4.9 per carry.

Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Southern Miss holds a 40-11-1 series advantage, including a current nine-game winning streak heading into this contest including 6 straight wins at home . 

Play on Southern Miss to cover

Penn States perfect season record ended last week in a loss to the Michigan and they will now be in a letdown situation against a hungry and tough group of Gophers who after a 4-0 start have lost 2 straight. Last week the Nittany Lions D was shredded on the ground allowing a whopping 418 yards. Now against a strong Minnesota run attack behind the legs of  Mohammed Ibrahim trouble looms for the home side here this Saturday on white out night. 

Fleck is 8-0 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MINNESOTA.Fleck is 11-2 ATS  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

Franklin is 7-22 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a road loss as the coach of PENN ST. 

CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS 10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Alabama took part in a back forth emotional battle last week and lost on a ugly looking FG to Tennessee losing for the first time this season. That was an exhausting affair, and now Im betting instead of a giant rebound, Im expecting a slow start from Sabans now over valued crew. Note: Nick Saban in his career,  js  0-5 ATS vs FBS opposition at home when coming off a SU/ATS loss  Hey I know Mississippi State lost last week for the 2nd time this season to Kentucky, but I would at all not be surprised if they were not caught looking ahead to this game . 

Leach is 33-13 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Road underdogs (MISSISSIPPI ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mississippi state to cover 

Stanford is in a huge letdown situation after upsetting Notre Dame last time out, and will now be vulnerable vs up trending ASU side that defeated a decent Washington team a couple of weeks ago before their bye week. Now well rested Arizona State with the relief of having gotten rid of HC Herm Edwards and a new era under way Im betting use their fresh legs here to be competitive and get us the cover .

STANFORD is 2-9 ATS   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Shaw is 3-11 ATS  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return as the coach of STANFORD.

Cardinal are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

Play on Arizona State to cover

Purdue 4-0 L/4 is getting alot of respect for the great football they have played, but this is a bad matchup for them vs Wisconsin despite of what many pundits expect. I know the Badgers seem discombobulated and are off being edged by Michigan State, 34-28 last time out in double OT, but this is a home tilt that puts this team in a situation that makes getting a victory a must just to get back some lost respect which means they will leave everything on the field in a all out effort. From historical standpoint Wisconsin is  42-28 ATS in Big Ten tilts when sporting a .500 record. WISCONSIN is also 47-27 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

Note: Wisconsin 15-0 SU in this series since the 2003 season. 

 PURDUE is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. PURDUE is 10-22 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PURDUE) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more  PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate!

Play on Wisconsin to cover 

This a key game for both Oklahoma State and Texas , as they have each already lost 1 game. With that said, Im expecting this to be a gritty battle that will be won in the trenches in physical fashion, and could easily be decided on the last possession of the game.  Note:Texas HC Steve Sarkisian is just  3-13 SU away against opposition  with a better record.  Steve Sarkisian is 0-1 SU against Oklahoma State.

I know the Cowboys blew a lead to TCU last time out and lost in OT, but the this is a resilient program as they have 6 straight wins after a loss. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 9-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA ST is 43-26 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

 The Cowboys have won five of their past six and 11 of their past 14 on Homecoming.

OSU has won eight of the past 12 matchups with Texas, as well as two of the past three played in Stillwater. 

OSU is 7-2 in its past 10 and 16-7 in its past 23 games vs. AP Top 25 teams and 9- 4 in its last 13 games when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 40-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate which obviously qualifies on this ATS line offering . 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

The Buffalo Bulls are currently in top form going 4-0 SUATS  and deserve respect here getting points vs visiting Toledo. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG during that span including allowing back to back opponents to score 7 points. This kind of data and momentum gives us an edge on a possible SU win or a back door cover in competitive fashion. Note:  The Bulls have not allowed points in the fourth quarter in any of their last four games. The Bulls have outscored their opponents, 55-7, in the first half over the last two games.

Buffalo owns a solid  12-4-1 ATS mark as a home underdog, including 5-0-1 ATS against better than .700 foes. 

Buffalo is 3-0 ATS L/3 at home vs Toledo at home.The Bulls won the last meeting, 49-30, at UB Stadium in 2019.

CFB Road favorites (TOLEDO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 39-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo Bulls to cover

UAB owns  the nation's third-ranked pass defense and will be key to slowing down the Western Kentucky offense that averages throwing the ball 44 times per game so far this season..This will be the fourth spread offense UAB has faced this season and they have faired very well as the  Blazers have allowed  opposition quarterbacks to complete  just 54 percent of their passes and have held opposing sides to an average of just  176.6 passing yards per game.

Note:  Western Kentucky has averaged 489 yards and 40 points per game, while UAB allows only  319 yards and 17 points per game. With said, this is a important game, and as almost is the case the better D will find a way to win.  On the flipside the Blazers are a strong rushing team behind McBride and one of the nations most cohesive Offensive lines, but so far this season WKU has been a dominant run stopping group, but Im betting that wont be the case today. 

The physicality of UABS defense and offense will be the difference maker tonight. 

Clark is 12-1 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of UAB.Clark is 8-1 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of UAB.UAB is 6-0 ATS  in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. UAB is 10-2 ATS L/12 as C USA dog.

WKU is 0-8 ATS as  single-digit conference chalk when facing an above .500 win percentage side.

Play on UAB to cover 

South Alabama has had a great start to their campaign garnering a 5-1 record to this point but in their two most recent games have been over rated by the lines-makers and failed to cover . Tonight against Troy (5-2) Im betting their dream season maybe abruptly upended. The Trojans have cashed 3 straight times against the spread and are on a 4 game winning run, and have cashed 5 straight times in this series and are not to be underestimated in their ferocity and ability to compete. Troy is also 3-0 ATS on the road this season and have cashed 4 straight as underdogs overall. 

S ALABAMA is 20-37 ATS after playing a game at home.

TROY is 9-1 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S ALABAMA) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 51-108 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

CFB road team (TROY) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 160-91 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Play on Troy to cover 

San Jose State 12-0 SUATS  as a road favorite in games when coming off a double-digit win like last time out by a 40-7 count vs UNLV. Im betting on the Spartans up trending to continue here vs a Fresno State side that is 0-4 SU/ATS this season, with a lack of offense being a key problem for them (23.6 ppg). SAN JOSE ST is 23-8 ATS L/31 as a road favorite . 

Plus we have revenge on board here by Brennan and company as Fresno State smashed San Jose State last season by a 40-7 count. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) - outrushed by their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 14-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Jose State to cover 

Clemson at 6-0 is getting better with each passing week and have an edge over a Florida state side that has lost two straight after a fast start.Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series and gets the nod here as Im betting they continue their upward momentum. 

Play on Clemson to cover 

The Huskies have dropped two straight, including last week’s 45-38 loss at Arizona State and really need a big game, and Im betting they get it. note: Arizona QB Jayden de Laura  the last time he was here with Arizona State was inserting a giant flag featuring the Washington State logo in the turf at midfield after leading the Cougars to an Apple Cup smash down  last November.   I know de Laura is not  with the Cougars anymore but you can bet the Huskies will be primed for payback this Saturday and could easily be merciless in romp to a big DD victory. 

ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS  in road games after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. ARIZONA is 4-22 ATS  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - off 4 or more consecutive overs, with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington to cover 

James Madison at 5-0 gets all the headlines and alot of support from the pundits buy the Eagles (3-3) own the  top-ranked offense in the Sun Belt and the 11th-best passing offense in the nation and must not be underestimated in their abilities to keep things close because of their offensive prowess and  give us in a worse case scenario a back door cover . With that said, will will go against the public darlings, and take the underdog. GA SOUTHERN is 8-1 ATS   vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Georgia Southern Eagles to cover 

The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-31 victory over UTEP to open Conference USA play, which was the programs six straight conference-opening win.Quarterback Parker McNeil has thrown for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. He ranks fourth in the FBS in yards per completion (14.8) and is more than capable of leading his team to a cover here and even a SU win. Note:LA Tech ranks third nationally with five plays from scrimmage over sixty yards. The Bulldogs are 21st nationally in plays from scrimmage over 30 yards with 16. I know North Texas has won seven-straight C-USA matchups dating back to Oct. 30, 2021 which is the longest active streak in the league and the fourth-longest streak nationally, but all good and bad runs must eventually come to an end.LOUISIANA TECH is 5-0 ATS and  straight up against NORTH TEXAS since 1992 here in this venue and a rinse and repeat situation is possibly at hand and more important a cover . 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 47-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Alabama QB Bryce Young is questionable and if he plays will be less than 100% giving an edge to what will be a hyped up home team ready to make an imprint on the SEC.  Tennessee is the real deal behind stud QB QB Herndon Hooker and must be respected here getting points. I know the Vols have lost 15 straight to Bama, but the under valued Vols have already ended 5-game losing streaks to Florida and LSU and like the old saying goes 3s a charm. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 36-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites (ALABAMA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

BYU is off a hard fought loss to Notre Dame last week, and now in. a emotional letdown state go against a tough Arkansas squad in a vulnerable state .  Note: Cougars are just  1-8 ATS versus SEC opposition dating back 32 seasons. Arkansas HC Sam Pitman is   7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in his career vs non conference opposition. 

BYU is 19-37 ATS L/56 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Sitake is 5-14 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of BYU.

ARKANSAS is 23-9 ATS  off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

CFB home team (BYU) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 44-82 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play. on Arkansas to cover 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TCU) - after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 33-2 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on TCU

CFB home team vs. the money line (SYRACUSE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 42-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff at +22.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

After smashing Oklahoma by a 49-0 count last week, I expect the Longhorns to be in an emotional letdown spot here in this tilt vs Iowa State. Iowa State after a close last time out to Kansas State now finds itself in desperation mode and Im betting they leave everything on the filed this week. Note: Cyclones HC Campbell is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog in conference tilts , including 10-0 ATS against winning sides. 

TEXAS is 20-35 ATS   after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

Iowa state has won and covered the last two meetings in this series. 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Navy has looked good of late after starting lethargically at 0-2. They have won 2 of their L/3 with the only loss a 13-10 heart breaker to military rivals Air Force. Today against SMU Im betting the Middies triple option run heavy offense keeps them in this game vs a SMU side thatS ranks 106th in rush yards allowed this season allowing  179 yards per game. 

NAVY is 8-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. 

NAVY is 7-0 ATS  in road games off an upset win as a home underdog which was the case last time out vs Tulsa . 

SMU is 6-16 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) 

CFB team (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or better YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 10-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36+ minutes) are 44-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 

Temple’s visits  the Bounce House tonight in a game that Im betting will not go well for them. Temple just does not travel well  going 0-6 SU/ATS L/6 away and that trend should stay intact vs  team that is a  defensive juggernaut   as they  lead  the nation in red zone defense. Opponents have scored on just 47% of their trips to the red zone, converting on 9-of-19 attempts. The Knights have only allowed four touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips for opponents.

Duke shutout Temple in their first game this season, and than last time out scored just 3 points so scoring will be an issue this evening for them again. Meanwhile, UCF has averaged 35.6 ppg so far this season on offense and another points  explosion is not out of the question on their home turf on Space night where they have won all 5 of these themed tilts. Note: The Owls have been destroyed by UCF in their last 3 meetings by an average 36.3 ppg. 

  Since 2017, the Knights are 33-3 SU in home games at FBC Mortgage Stadium.

TEMPLE is 0-8 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (UCF) - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 71-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UCF to cover

Baylor is the overall superior side, but West Virginia is always dangerous because of their explosive offense. Here at home West Virginia Im betting has enough of an edge on this line to get us the cover. The Mountaineers are a perfect 5-0 SU L/5 at home in this series.

Note: Losing to Oklahoma State at home last time will take a little bit out the Bears and their performance could easily be muted.  

Brown is 11-1 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of W VIRGINIA.

Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

Mountaineers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Mountaineers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.

Bears are 7-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Washington State looks explosive offensively behind the arm of QB transfer Cameron Ward who is being looked at very closely by NFL scouts. I know USC has a fine group this season, but it must also be noted that  USC is 1-9 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. With a look ahead revenger against Utah on board next week, its not out of the realm of possibility that the Trojans could get caught looking ahead and a vulnerable spot as DD favs. 

USC is 0-6 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

WASHINGTON ST is 10-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 8-0 ATS  after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons. Dickert is 6-0 ATS  after playing a game at home as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.

Play on Washington State to cover 

Kentucky took a gut-wrenching, 22-19 loss at No. 14 Ole Miss last week, and despite of being angry because of bad calls, from the officials will have a hard time in what must be considered a huge letdown scenario.Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

South Carolina has had promising performances since its blowout loss to Georgia in Week 3. They can be excused for their performance vs one of college footballs top teams, so Im not underestimating their ability to compete vs a good but slightly over rated Kentucky side. 

Play on South Carolina to cover 

The Illinois defense is currently ranked  No. 1 in the nation in scoring D allowing  a little  over eight points per game. Here today against a Iowa side that struggles to score averaging just 16.4 ppg they have an edge. Last week the Illini held Wisconsin to just 10 points and a rinse and repeat situation is on board here this week in what the lines-makers are suggesting will be a low scoring battle. Illinois has the better offensive flow and will get the job done and bring us home the dough. 

Fighting Illini are 7-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

CFB home team vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 27-3 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on Illinois to cover

 Texas State owns  the 4th-best defense in the Sun Belt and the No. 2 pass defense and have the ability to stay within the underdog line here at home vs the offensively explosive Mounties .

Despite of App States offensive attributes they  have looked inconsistent at times this season and with  Coach Shawn Clarke at the helm of  the Mountaineers they are just  8-15-1 ATS as favs.  Meanwhile, Texas State is  , 6-1-1 ATS when a home dog the past three years plus, and are  6-1-1 ATS at home versus teams with a better record than themselves. 

TEXAS ST is 6-0 ATS  after a loss by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

Play on Texas State to cover 

The Sun Devils have taken part in a tough schedule with three previous opponents  ranked in top 11 of the AP Poll at the time of their tilts. Now battle tested against top tier opposition Im betting they will not be intimidated here at home and get us the cover like they did last week. Note: Wash is just  1-8 ATS  lL9 as road chalk  of 7 or more points . Meanwhile, the Sun Devils 12-2 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this series and deserve respect getting this many points .  The last time the Huskies won in Tempe was 2001 with a late FG. 

WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

ARIZONA ST is 27-11 ATS  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Pittsburgh Panthers lost at home to Georgia Tech  as 21-point favorites last time out, and despite of wanting to get redemption may find the sledding tougher than anticipated once again this week. I know the Hokies do not inspire most bettors, but they still own a  defense, that allows just 310-YPG ranking No. 26 overall in the nation. Considering the  issues Pittsburgh has shown so far it very much looks like we have en edge taking a 2 TD or more underdog in this spot play. 

Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Narduzzi is 10-20 ATS  as a home favorite as the coach of PITTSBURGH.PITTSBURGH is 16-32 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game.

Play on VTech to cover 

Utah is know for its toughness, but this group of Bruins are equally rugged, behind offensive line that leads the nation in fewest tackles for loss per game allowed. The Bruins ground game is also in a groove , and functioning with better flow than Utes are. I know Utahs D, is nasty good, but the Florida  Gators ran for 283 yards against them, and Im betting the Bruins can replicate that and help get us the cover in the process. 

UCLA is 5-0 SUATS since 2000 as an unbeaten home dog.  

UCLA is 22-8 ATS  in home games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 34-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate. 

CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Play on UCLA to cover 

Purdue is coming off a big win last week against Minnesota and have now won 2 in a row. I know Maryland is also off a victory and have looked good this season including a close loss to Michigan, but it must be noted the Terps HC Locksley is 0-13 SU   in his career going up against a football program  coming off consecutive wins. So faltering here is not out of the question and according to my projections probable. 

Purdues D is 77+ yards better than Marylands and today D will be the difference maker. 

Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Boilermakers are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Brohm is 11-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of PURDUE. Brohm is 20-6 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached.

Terrapins are 18-37 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.Terrapins are 16-41 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Terrapins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games.Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Play on Purdue to cover 

Brian Kelly’s 4-1 Tigers are playing some good football  and deserve respect here as underdogs vs one way offensive side Tennessee Vols football program. Kelley is  18-7 SU at home against  undefeated opposition like Tennessee. Heupel is 3-14 ATS  after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached. 

Volunteers are 4-12 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Tigers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS loss.Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

CFB Road favorites (TENNESSEE) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 

TCU is in a letdown spot after a big win vs Oklahoma last time out and are vulnerable to a slow start here this week against upstart Jayhawks.

The series hosts are 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series.

TCU is 2-13 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return.

Horned Frogs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Horned Frogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf. Horned Frogs are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games in October.Horned Frogs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

CFB Road favorites (TCU) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a  76% go against conversion rate.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Oklahoma has lost back to back games and is suddenly no longer a favorite of the pundits and obviously the lines-makers. This is the first time in the last 14 meetings that the Longhorns have been made favs. Note: OKLAHOMA is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite since 1992. I know the Texas offense is explosive but the Sooners are  11-3 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. There was alot of wise guy money that came in on Texas early on when the line first opened , but now its been over done and Ill be recommending we take the points.

The last eight meetings have been decided by eight points or less.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover 

UCF owns a perfect 5-0 record at home against the Mustangs in the all time series. SMU won the last meeting between the programs, in DD fashion at home and now with revenge on board Im betting UCF will this game in motivated fashion and proverbially  leave no prisoners. Note:Since 2017, the Knights are 32-3 SU in home games at FBC Mortgage Stadium and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation in place behind , a Knights defense has been top shelf season, as is evident by leading  the nation in red zone defense. Opponents have scored on just 40% of their trips into the red zone, converting on  just 6-of-15 attempts. The Knights have only allowed three touchdowns in the red zone in 15 trips for opponents and are projected to give SMU issues in offensive flow in key down situations.Following the first four games of the season, UCF is one of just two FBS teams (Oregon) to surpass 600 yards of total offense in more than one game this season. The Knights recorded a season-high 653 yards in the road win at Florida Atlantic and also tallied 605 yards in the season opener against South Carolina State. 

On the flip-side  UCF is averaging 275.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks third nationally and leads the AAC. Fifth-year running back Isaiah Bowser is 19th in nationally with five rushing touchdowns, which is second in the conference.  I expect the Knights will pound the ball on the  ground and slow this game down to a crawl which will take high flying Mustangs out of their game flow. 

SMU is 9-24 ATS  in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry.SMU is 19-36 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UCF) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 43-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UCF to cover 

I know Clemson has won 36 straight home games, and I wont be surprised if they win again, but after their exhausting back and forth battle against Wake Forest last week, I expect a natural letdown scenario to hit the Tigers, which could easily effect their ability to start fast and cover here vs a under rated and tough NC State football program that ranks 2nd in D. 

Both these sides are 4-0 SU on the season, and both failed to cover last time out. However it must be noted that 

NC STATE is 8-1 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

NC STATE is 19-7 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game. NC STATE is 8-0 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - with a good defense - allowing 4.8 or less yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous games are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover

In Sun Belt games, Arkansas State has won 12 straight over the Warhawks and leads the series 17-4 after beating ULM 27-24 in Monroe last year as 3 point underdogs which was the 12th straight cover by the Wolves  in this series. With LA Monroe off a huge win vs Lafayette last week by a 21-17 count as underdogs Im betting on a natural letdown scenario to rear its ugly head vs a Arkansas State program that for what ever reasons owns a long term winning record. I know Arkansas State is just 1-3 but with Florida State transfer QB James Blackman, beginning to come into his own the Wolves are dangerous opponents.  in his second year in the program, the veteran QB 43 career games and 34 starts under his belt, Blackman has completed 83-of-123 passes for 958 yards and five touchdowns with just one interception. Add to that Recognized on the Doak Walker Watch List, Johnnie Lang Jr. leads the ground game with 219 yards and one touchdown on 45 carries while Brian Snead has 164 yards and four scores on 39 attempts. Two pronged attack gets it done this week and gets us a win and cover.

Arkansas State to cover 

Wake Forest had a 11 game winning streak at home end last week in a OT loss to Clemson. Now angry and hungry and ready for redemption Im betting the explosive Demon Deacons behind the arm of star QB Sam Hartman to give the pubic darling Florida State Seminoles all they can handle. 

FLORIDA ST is 6-16 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Clawson is 14-5 ATS  when the total is between 63.5 and 70 as the coach of WAKE FOREST

Clawson is 12-3 ATS  after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games in all games he has coached

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more PYA), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 12-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover

Michigan State has lost two straight and are not the public darling they once were . They were beat by a very good Washington team by 11 points then fell flat on their faces in a emotional letdown spot last time out to vs Minnesota in a ugly DD loss. Now in desperation mode Im betting they come out here and leave everything on the field vs Maryland. Note: Terps are just 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS in Big Ten battles under Mike Locksley and must not be over estimated despite of playing Michigan tough last time out.MICHIGAN ST is 6-1 straight up against MARYLAND since 1992 and Im betting gets us the cover here.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

James is off a big upset vs App State and will now be in an emotional letdown state this week as they bring a perfect 3-0 record in their first FBS season. Texas State  ranks  No. 17 in tackling,  and could easily give JMU’s passing attack problems behind a  No. 3 ranked pass-rush grade and No. 1 in the nation in PFF coverage grade. Intensity could easily be lacking here for JMU and Texas State is built to take advantage of it.Texas State gives up only 301 YPG and  Im betting can hold the fort here. 

CFB home team (JAMES MADISON) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a terrible rushing team (100 or less RY/game), in conference games are 4-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas State to cover

Iowa has been a strong home side for a very long time. Something about this crowd and the energy created brings out the best in this program no matter what the perceived levels of talent they currently have on the filed as compared to their competition.  I know Michigan is a strong side, but Im betting things dont come all that easily for them this week in this road tilt vs a top ranked  D, that can stifle the best of offenses. ( I know there is a  key injury to linebacker Jacobs , but their is alot of grit in this Hawkeyes D, and Im betting they find a way to pull up the slack)

Note: Iowas HC Kirk Ferentz  is 55-2 ATS  L/57 as a double digit dog at home. Ferentz is 21-8 ATS vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game as the coach of IOWA.

Michigan is 0-5-1 ATS L/6 on the road in this series and have not won here since the 2005 campaign. 

IOWA is 31-9 ATS L/40 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.IOWA is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

MICHIGAN is 6-22 ATS  after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.

CFB home team vs. the money line (IOWA) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game are 57-7 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa 

Both these teams are 4-0 on the season , and with my projections making this a pickem, Im betting getting points at home for UCLA will prove golden .

WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

UCLA is 23-7 ATS in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game which was the case in 1 45-17 win vs hapless Colorado last time out.

Kelly is 6-0 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of UCLA.

CFB home team (UCLA) - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 29-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 31-9 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - with a good defense - allowing 4.8 or less yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 23-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

CFB Road favorites (WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 11-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate!

UCLA is 9-2 SU L/11 at home in this series.

Play on UCLA to cover

Boise State is 112th in the nation in scoring at 22 points a game after  garnering just 177 yards of offense despite being favored by 16.5 points over UTEP.  The Broncos’ time of possession was limited to 19:25  in that above mentioned tilt and against a physical San Diego State may struggle again to find flow, especially considering that the Aztecs are expected to pound the ball on the ground and make this a grinding physical game. San Diego State scored the game’s final 24 points to beat Boise State 27-16 at home last season and now a rinse repeat situation Im betting is in place considering the logistics data that shows us the Broncos are struggling more mightily than even the worst pessimist may have expected.SAN DIEGO ST is 6-1 against the spread versus BOISE ST since 1992 and 3-0 ATS L/3 at Boise State. Boise State is also  0-6 ATS L/6 as fav in this series. 

In his fourth season at Houston's helm, Holgorsen has become frustrated with his squad."Tired of yelling at them. Tired of motivating them. Tired of all that crap," Holgorsen said after last Saturday's 34-27 win over Rice. The energy and chemistry with this Cougars group is an indicator of their current motivational mind set giving us an edge with an under rated a hard working  opponent the Tulane Green Wave. Note: Houstons secondary is abysmal allowing an  average of 295 passing yards per game  in four tilts. 

Holgorsen is 0-7 ATS  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of HOUSTON. Holgorsen is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 or less  yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB team (HOUSTON) - off 4 or more consecutive overs, with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game are 17-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (TULANE) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 28-13 L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Seminoles are unbeaten but man are they ever beat up. Last Thursday in a hard fought win vs Louisville Florida states starting QB Jordan Travis was on the side line with crutches in the 2nd half  and if he plays this week he  maybe less than 100%.  Im betting Boston takes advantage of this situation and stays very competitive and gets us the cover vs a exhausted Noles side in an emotional and physical letdown situation. Note: Eagles BCs HC Jeff Hafley is 3-0 ATS  as a underdog of 14 or more points. 

These teams have played some very close affairs of late with the last 3 decided by one score or less. Rinse and repeat agenda now on board. 

BOSTON COLLEGE is 34-19 ATS   in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 

CFB road team (BOSTON COLLEGE) - struggling  rushing team - averaging 100 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 55-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for  bettors. 

Play on Boston  College to cover 

Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day has taken out  Wisconsin twice here with this program,  defeating the  Badgers 38-7 in the 2019 regular season, then repeating the feat  in the conference championship in the same campaign 34-21 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat scenario here today .OHIO ST is 19-7 ATS  in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or better  yards/play  with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at 19,8 ppg. Chryst is 1-9 ATS  after out gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games in all games . Wisconsin 1-5-1 ATS L/7 as conference dogs of more than 12 points. Chryst is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of WISCONSIN

Day is 11-3 ATS  off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of OHIO ST.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OHIO STATE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for. bettors with the average margin of victory combing by 20.2 ppg. 

CFB Home favorites (OHIO ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 30-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio State to cover

Gtech is 0-3 ITS and been out-yarded by 176 YPG and are fade material in their current form. 

GEORGIA TECH is 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Collins is 1-9 ATS  in non-conference games as the coach of GEORGIA TECH.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA TECH) - with a poor offense - averaging 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are 7-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA TECH) - poor team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are 10-33 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UCF to cover 

Transfer quarterback Cameron Ward has looked in this Washington State football program so far this season. On the flip-side the up-trending  Cougars have allowed just  12.7 points per game, which has them ranked 19th in D-1. Washington State has given up a  total of 273 yards rushing (91.0 yards per game) in addition to 0 touchdowns rushing for the year. In total, they have surrendered  38 points overall and just  4 passing  touchdowns  and 217.0 yards average pg, which has them ranked 70th in Division 1. Im betting they make the Ducks one dimensional on offense and make life very difficult for the young men from Eugene. 

WASHINGTON ST is 36-18 ATS L/54 versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game . Dickert is 6-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.

CFB Road favorites (OREGON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 10-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after out gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington State to cover 

The Florida  Gators  enter this road game against Tennessee with 5-1 SUATS record in  the last six meetings, and overall are 16-1 ATS in the last 17 games vs the Vols. Meanwhile, Tennessee is just1-8 ATS as SEC home favorites of 10.5  or less  points. In the Vols last 5 home games vs SEC sides off a victory like Florida is are just 0-5 SU/ATS. I know ol Rocky top has a explosive offense, but Im betting a stronger than expected Florida D, stands tall here and makes life difficult for the DD home fav. 

Heupel is 3-13 ATS  after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached.

Napier is 10-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached.

Play on Florida to cover 

Wake Forest is being under estimated here by the lines-makers according to my own projections. The Deacons  have an 11-game home winning streak and must not be taken lightly in their ability to light up the scoreboard and be competitive as hosts with 5th year experienced QB.Sam Hartman  the helm of the offense . The top tier man under center has accumulated almost    10,000 yards and 79 touchdowns over the span of his College Football career and is a solid underdog. 

CLEMSON is 1-10 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons. CLEMSON is 1-8 ATS  in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Clawson is 21-11 ATS  in home games against conference opponents as the coach of WAKE FOREST.

CFB Road favorites (CLEMSON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 10-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Powerful Georgia has nothing to worry about here vs Kent State and Im betting will play alot of backups today. Meanwhile, Kent will leave everything on the field in an attempt to make a historical statement. The Flashes have already played Oklahoma and Washington and showed some spark in those games despite of handy defeats and Im betting they find a way to get us a cover vs a disinterested Dawgs side that will most probably trying to stay healthy and remain  rested before SEC heavy duty action gets underway. 

GEORGIA is 7-23 ATS in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite . GEORGIA is 4-13 ATS  in home games after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points . Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of GEORGIA.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (GEORGIA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being outgained by 125 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Iowa State was wide awake last week in their win vs Ohio U by a  43-10 count and are primed to play some big time football this week vs Baylor at home in their Big 12 opener.

Cyclones are  3-0 ITS   and winning the stats battles  by an average 191 YPG early on this campaign and my projections estimate another strong performance vs a viable opponent. 

Note: IOWA ST is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Campbell is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of IOWA ST. Campbell is 14-3 ATS  after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of IOWA ST

CFB home team vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for. bettors with the average margin of victory combing by 20.2 ppg. 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

 Jim Harbaugh has owned Maryland going a perfect 6-0 SUATS in the series while outscoring them by an average of  33 points per game.  Rinse and repeat situation Im betting is now on board this Saturday. Maryland as  Big Ten road pups  of 10 or more points have failed to cover 9 of their L/11 opportunities. 

MARYLAND is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a the average margin ppg diff clicking in at -30.2 ppg. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for. bettors with the average margin of victory combing by 20.2 ppg. 

CFB Home favorites (MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 78-38 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover 

Since Bryan Harsin took over the coaching duties at Auburn the program has reversed itself, and continued negative regression is expected this week vs Missouri. 

Auburn is 0-3 ATS so far this season. Harsin is 6-11 ATS when favored and coming off a loss, including 2-7 ATS at home (Penn State crushed Auburn last week by a 41-12 count. )

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

UTEP is 1-3 SU on the season and has been outscored by an average of 34-12 and have failed to cover all 4 games. I know Boise State has been slow on take off this season, with a minimal type wins vs Tenn Martin and New Mexico and a opening  loss vs Oregon State. However, now I expect the Blue Broncos  to be in top flight tonight vs a side they pummeled last season by a 54-13 count. Note: The Broncos D has shined allowing an average of 260 ypg total which ranks 10th in the nation and Im betting UTEP struggles to score and keep up. Boise State has faired well in their fourth game of the season the last 4 seasons winning/ cashing all 4 times by an average of 21.5 ppg.  Boise State is 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series and a rinse and repeat scenario is offering itself up tonight. 

Play on Boise State to cover 

The Mountaineers can roll up points quickly but they will go against a  Hokies  side that have rebounded from a last-second loss at Old Dominion to win two straight battles, because of a top tier  defense that ranks 5th overall, 3rd against the run and 15th against the pass in the nation . Compared to West Virginia  they have allowed  126 yards less ppg   than the Mounties including  21 less points per game. Va Tech owns a  7-2 ATS L/9 series edge at Lane Stadium, including 4-0 ATS with revenge which is on board here tonight. Virginia Tech  is 12-7-1 SU all-time at home vs West Virginia. 

W VIRGINIA is 2-11 ATS  in road games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game. W VIRGINIA is 6-19 ATS L/25 in road games against ACC opponents . 

VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS  in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game.

Play on Vtech to cover 

The Aggies were held to under 200 total yards and 1 offensive touchdown last week in a loss to App State, and after dissecting that game it's obvious this Texas A&M side has alot of vulnerabilities that can be exploited by a team like the Canes. Im betting on Miami Fl , new HC  Mario Cristobal to be  very well prepared here to pull off a possible upset and more importantly as we are concerned a cover. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS A&M) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 10-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a  go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami Fl to cover 

Huge emotional letdown situation for Texas this week vs UTSA after a heart breaking loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide last week 20-19 -thanks to a late FG by the Tide. Now vulnerable and also with injured starting QB Quinn Ewers out of the lineup the Longhorns are vulnerable to a slow start and subsequent fail as DD home favs vs a UTSA side with a top tier coach at the helm (Jeff Traylor).UTSA is 6-0 ATS  in the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. Traylor is 7-0 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of UTSA.

Play on UTSA to cover 

Marshall came up with a huge upset last week vs Notre Dame and will now be in a huge emotional letdown situation vs a Bowling Green side that deserves some respect getting points as the 6th most experienced team in the country. After some heavy celebrating by the Thundering Herd and their fan base Im betting on their battery being a little depleted here, making them vulnerable to being upset . 

Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings in this series at home. 

CFB team (BOWLING GREEN) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Bowling Green to cover 

Kansas has shown offensive explosiveness and cohesion in their first two games this season scoring 56 and 55 points respectively  both resulting in victories. Meanwhile, Houston has shown some defensive deficiencies allowing 35 and 33 points in their first two games and very much look vulnerable as DD chalk. 

Kansas is 3-0 SU  since 1992 vs Houston! 

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - pathetic team from last season - outscored by opponents by 17 or more points/game are 36-12 ATS L/30 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 32-10 ATS L/30 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Auburns much maligned HC Harisan is much better than many might think, especially early on in campaigns Harsin who is devout chartist is 27-7 in his first four games of the season and Im betting he will be well prepared again. 

Penn State has failed to cover 3 of their L/4 as a non conference road fav of 4 points or less.Franklin is 11-21 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of PENN ST. Penn State is just 2-7 ATS vs the SEC. 

Auburn is 10-2 ATS as home dogs against undefeated opposition like Penn State. 

CFB team (AUBURN) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games, team that had a losing record last season are 34-11 ATS L/30 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 27-66 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Auburn to cover 

BYU has victories  against USF and Baylor.  This is a never say die group the Mormons bring on to the field and are not the type of squad that would have partied heavily last week after defeating Baylor in OT. Im betting they wont let that big win make them emotionally vulnerable because their maturity levels are above average as is their talent levels. 

BYU is 6-2 ATS L/8 as road dogs of 8 point or less. Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.Cougars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on fieldturf.

Ducks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.Ducks are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win.Ducks are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Ducks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BYU) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 30-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on BYU

Indiana found a way past Illinois last week, but Im not a big believer in this program at the present moment and really like Western Kentucky's passing game which could make like difficult for the Hoosiers secondary that has shown some glaring weaknesses.

 Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. Hilltoppers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

W KENTUCKY is 13-2 ATS L/15 tilts  as a road underdog of 7 points or less . W KENTUCKY is 30-12 ATS L/32 after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins 

INDIANA is 8-20 ATS L/28  in home games off a home win . INDIANA is 2-11 ATS  when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

The Baylor Bears had a great season last year winning the Big 12 championship with an upset vs Oklahoma State.  They also beat the Cougars last season by a 38-24 count,  But now BYU will be primed for payback behind a explosive team that is very under rated in my humble opinion. It must also be noted that BYU ranks No. 1 overall and the Bears at No. 126. in returning production. With the home side winning and covering the last three meetings including  a 6-1 ATS record  favoring the Mormons  in their last seven meetings with Big 12 opposition I feel confident in a winning effort by the home side today.Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on BYU 

Virginia Tech is off a loss to lower tier Old Dominion last week by a 20-17 count and are proving my assessments of them correct at this juncture of the season. Vtech lost to Boston last season by a 17-3 count and look incapable of payback .  I know BC blew a lead vs Rutgers last week and lost 22-21, but that will make them all the more hungrier this week in a matchup that favors them getting points. 

CFB team (BOSTON COLLEGE) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston College to cover 

These teams played a  regular season finale on Thanksgiving weekend last season with West Virginia  barley getting  by  Kansas  with a  34-28 victory  in Lawrence.  Kansas has 9 starters back on offense and 17 returning starters overall while West Virginia only has 4 on defense and 11 total coming back. The experience resides with Kansas and some key trends also support them as underdogs and possible out right winners. CFB Road underdogs  (KANSAS) - team with a below average  scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning have won 19 of their L/27 opportunities SU. Kanas has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series and 3 of their L/4 @ West Virginia.Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Alabama's goes into Austin  to take on the Texas Longhorns . Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian was Saban's offensive coordinator for two seasons, so both coaches are not strangers and know their opponent well.   

New Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who transferred from Ohio State, passed for 225 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in his first start and is capable of doing some damage here again this week against a top tier defense that is still human in nature. 

Home Field is a big advantage for the Longhorns as a 3 TD underdog. 

From a historical standpoint Texas is 7-1-1 all-time against Alabama with the loss coming in the BCS Championship Game at the end of the 2009 season.

Sarkisian is 16-5 ATS L/21 in home games in September games in all games he has coached since 1992. Sarkisian is 13-4 ATS  in home games in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Texas to cover 

Huge emotional  letdown scenario on tap here this week vs Georgia State for the North Carolina Tar Heels as they come off a extremely hard fought victory  against App St in OT by a 65-63 score. Biggest problem for the Tar Heels is a D, that has now surrendered 85 points in two games and once again looks vulnerable here, 

N CAROLINA is 1-9 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Brown is 2-10 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of N CAROLINA.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA ST) - team that had a winning record last season 103-54 L/30 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA ST) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 83-35 ATS L/30 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Boise State was beaten up on by Oregon state in their first game of the season, and will primed for a redemption minded bounce back effort against a less than strong New Mexico side that they  matchup very well against. In the two most recent meetings in this series the Broncos bashed the Lobos by scores of 37-0 and 42-9, and my projections estimate a rinse and repeat situation is on board for this Friday night. Yes, I know the Lobos clobbered a ugly looking Maine team at home in their opener by a 41-0 count, but the side their facing today is a multiple times better than what they saw last week. Note: New Mexico is just 1-12 ATS when off a 7 or more point win.Lobos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Broncos are 7-1 ATS when off an away defeat. Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.

Play on the Boise State Broncos to cover 

The Brian Kelly era at LSU Im betting will be a difficult one for him  in this ‘neutral field’  opening event at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans vs a Florida State program that looks ready to right the ship . Off course the media is all over LSU and how potent they will be this season . However hold your horses folks as  FSU head coach Mike Norvell  showed momentum late last season  as  the Seminoles won five of their last  eight games,. It was to little to late, but now Im betting on bigger and better things for FSU.  With  QB Jordan Travis, the Louisville transfer, registering a 148.9 Passer rating last season, and back to back  1,000 yards rushing campaigns   this   more experienced FSU crew has an anchor. Note: LSU HC  Kelly is 0-3 ATS in season openers the last three years . Meanwhile, : Norvell is   7-0 ATS the last seven tilts vs non conference opposition. 

Florida State 5-1 ATS L/6 a non conference favs  of 8 points or less. 

Play on Florida State to cover 

North Texas is off a win in their opening game of the season vs UTEP and once again deserve respect vs a SMU team playing without HC Sonny Dykes who went over to coach TCU. This N.Texas  team this season returns eight starters on offense, while featuring  and a under rated D that improved vastly last season compared to the previous season .  The Mean Green are ranked No. 21 overall in Returning Production and deserve respect getting this many points. With this being a revenge situation for N.Texas after suffering losses in this series in three straight seasons Im betting on a motivated effort from the home dog.

SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons. Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NORTH TEXAS is 10-2 ATS  in home games off a double digit road win since 1992.NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.Littrell is 6-0 ATS in home games off a road win against a conference rival as the coach of NORTH TEXAS. Mean Green are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Mean Green are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

North Texas to cover 

 New Head coach Billy Napier is a top tier coach and Im betting he actually gets the most out of the rebuild with the Gators and  talent he has on the field this season thanks to a strong coaching staff he brought over from Louisiana  . I know he will face PAC 12 Champs Utah, but according to early season power rankings this SEC home side will be very competitive and the linesmakers agree with me. 

Note: Utah in  one-score tilts the L/5 seasons, are just  1-6 SU on the road and have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 as  non-conference favorites the last four campaigns. Meanwhile,  the Gators are  3-0 ATS run as a home pup,  and have covered their L/3 gridiron battles vs Pac-12 sides .  Add to that  Billy Napier is 7-1 SU/ATS as a dog of 5 or less points and you have what I am recommending as a solid take option getting points. 

Play on Florida to cover 

Miss HC Lane  Kiffin might take a few games to get rolling as he has lost some key production from last year, so a blowout may not come as easily as this line suggests. Here today against a 18 returning  starter the  Bulldogs may find themselves in a closer tilt than anticipated. Note: Kiffin has failed to cover 7 of his L/10 as a non conference chalk of 20 or more points. 

’17 returning starter ’pups in their season openers ,  are  113-84-3 ATS L/.198 opportunities . 

Play on Troy to cover 

 The UCLA Bruins had a decent campaign last season, but Im betting they are over rated despite of some top tier offensive talent returning .According to my projections the Bruins are  getting just a bit to much respect here today against MAC opponents Bowling Green.. The Falcons may not inspire bettors but with the amount of experience they have thanks to playing so many under class-man last season they become dangerous underdogs. Bowling Green coming into this season  as the countries 6th ranked team in Returning Production experience, and  also rank  No. 3 in returning offensive production. . Note:  UCLAs HC Chip Kelly  is a perennial slow starter losing 5 of his first 8 openers SU  and for me is fade material against a under rated opponent. 

Bruins are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.

Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Play on the Bowling Green Falcons to cover 

 North Carolina did not look good in their opener vs a lower tier side and were up  just 21-14 with 5 seconds remaining in the first half despite of Florida A&M having 25 ineligible players sidelined. They did win 56-24 but I was very unimpressed.   North Carolina barely made it to a Bowl game last season, and  looked horrendous  in a  38- 21 defeat  as 13-point favs vs  South Carolina  With key personnel now gone   Mack Brown just does not look like he has a solid base for a team to suddenly begin to put wins on the board, especially here on the road against a Appalachian State program that has garnered a 11-1 SU at home record the last 3 seasons and a eye popping  32-3 SU record at home in their L/35 attempts and 21-3 ITS at home the last 4 seasons.  

Brown is 1-10 ATS  in road games off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of N CAROLINA.Brown is 9-26 ATS  after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Play on App state to cover 

TCU opens without  head coach Gary Patterson for the first time in 20 seasons. Hes gone and and a new era begins at TCU.   Sonny Dykes, an so called offensive guru with a lack of respect for putting together decent defenses takes over ( At SMU he allowed an average of 430 YPG in four seasons . Thats not a good look for a Horned Frogs side that  ranked 122nd against the run  via 222 RYPG. Dykes is favored here by to many points despite of Colorados recent lack of success. Note: Dykes  has failed to cover 17 of his L/25 as a road favorite , and  3-16 ATS the L/19 trips to the gridiron. Playing in the High altitudes is not an easy proposition for visiting sides, and Im betting the Buffs who are acclimated to the thin air make life difficult for TCU .

TCU is 2-9 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Colorado to cover 

VTechs new HC  Pry  and Old Dominions HC  Ricky Rahne,  served under James Franklin at both Vanderbilt and Penn State, where they were dueling coordinators. Needless to say they know each other well and competitiveness should be on this agenda. 

Its also interesting to note that the last time Old Dominion played  hosts to  a Power 5 program was back in 2018 . That game saw the Monarchs take out the  Hokies by  49-35 count  as 29-point home underdogs.

With 17 starters back, including 10 on offense, plus an array of transfers from Power 5 schools Old Dominion Im betting will be more competitive than the pundits might think vs a Virginia Tech squad that was just 6-7 last season and still trying to gauge how to win regularly. 

NCAAF Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLD DOMINION) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, in non-conference games are 83-42 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

HC Browns needs to get his team off on the proverbial right foot here tonight as West Virginia starts this season on the road vs  a Pittsburgh side that finds itself starting this campaign without NFL draftee QB Kenny Pickett  and top tier WR Jordan Addison who took the transfer portal option and went out to USC.

Im betting QB Daniels who previously was under center at USC and Georgia  will have an advantage here today and get us the cover and possible outright victory. 

West Virginia is  9-3 SU/ATS  and including 5-1 SUATS as underdogs. Meanwhile, Pitt has recorded a 1-6 SU L/7  record against Big 12 opponents. 

Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in September.Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Charlotte brings back some experience from last season -ranking 19th in the nation in returning experience. Considering Charlotte has revenge on board for a humiliating loss last year to the Owls you can bet this group will primed for payback . With that said Im betting on QB Chris Reynolds and his experienced offensive group to stay in this game against FAU and possibly win the tilt outright. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points . FLA ATLANTIC is 7-18 ATS L/25 as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 

NCAAF Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHARLOTTE) - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 41-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Wyoming  returns just 4 starers on each side of the ball and is expected to have a sub par season in the Mountain West Conference. Note: Wyoming ranks 129 out of 131 teams in terms of returning production. Meanwhile, Illinois is up trending- behind HC Bret Bielema who has 13 starters back in Champaign. I know the Illini did not have a strong season last year, but Im betting they start this season off with a big bang effort behind new OC Barry Lunney Jr. who comes over with his successes from UTSA. 

 Bielema is 13-0 SU in home openers in his college head-coaching career.  Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.

Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Play on Illinois to cover 

Game to played on a neutral Field in Dublin, Ireland . 

Nebraska's Scott Frost returns  12 starters   from a 3-9 SU  team from last season and are being vastly over rated against a Northwestern side that had a atrocious season in 2021. Meanwhile, the Wildcats bring back 14 starters, and will be primed and very motivated  to stay competitive after last seasons nasty 56-7 beatdown at the hands of the Corn huskers. 

Cornhuskers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

CFP Championship Game - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

I know it's never an easy decision to bet against Alabama , but I feel strongly this is Georgias time. The Bulldogs were head and shoulders the best team in College Football this season . Yes, they did lose to Saban and company allowing 30.4 ppg more than theyre season average But now with that loss out of the way Im betting Georgia will feel the need to be more aggressive with Alabama rather than show them to much respect , which was part of the reason they lost last time they played. Note: GEORGIA is 20-8 ATSL/28 in road games revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite. 

GEORGIA is 52-33 ATS L/85 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

Saban is 7-19 ATS L/26 vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game as the coach of ALABAMA.

CFB team (GEORGIA) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 51-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover 

 North Dakota State has a 47-6 record in true road games since 2011, and that record is 57-6 including 10 neutral site games over the same span. NDSU has a 40-3 record in the FCS playoffs. North Dakota State has won a record eight FCS national championships and is making a record ninth appearance in the title game. The Bison are 13-2 overall in playoff title games with the only losses coming in the Division II championships in 1981 to Texas State (42-13) and 1984 to Troy (18-17). Needless to say this storied FCS program knows how to win. 

 Key today vs Montana State: North Dakota State has the No. 3 rushing offense in FCS averaging 273.6 yards per game. NDSU has seven backs averaging better than 5.0 yards per carry, and the team's 6.13 yards per carry is fifth best in school history and nothing will change here today in what Im betting will be a over powering  performance vs a strong MSU D that is vulnerable to big gain on the ground vs this type of opposition . 

 North Dakota State crushed Montana State in the 2018 and 2019 playoffs : The Bison  took a 38-3 halftime lead in the 2018 second round and cruised, 52-10, then smashed them again  to a 29-7 halftime lead in the 2019 semis before rolling 42-14.  This might be a better version of Montana state but they still are in my opinion DD dogs despite of the line. 

Montana State averaged just 19 points per game over its final five regular-season contests, but in the play offs came alive under a backup QB Mellott, but after a 3 week lay off cohesiveness will be a problem vs this type of D. 

North Dakota State to cover 

Sugar Bowl - Ceasars Superdome - New Orleans, LA

 Baylor's  is a top tier two way side, controlling the ball for 31:37 per game and that will be the difference maker here today vs Ole Miss. 

BAYLOR is 9-0 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 8-1 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 10-1 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 9-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SEC teams are 3-6 ATS in the last nine Sugar Bowls.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Rose Bowl - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA

Ohio State has something to prove here after being defeated by Michigan to end their season. Im betting we see them at their best here vs a good but not quite ready for prime time Utah Utes side. I know some key players will be out for Ohio State as they prepare for the NFL draft but their replacements are top tier recruits and will be out to show off their abilities. 

OHIO ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more points. (Lost to Michigan 42-27 to end their season)

OHIO ST is 29-13 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an inexperienced QB as starter 32-2 L/29 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at  +16.6  . 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH) - excellent offensive team (6.2  or more YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) are 48-81 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63%  go against conversion rate. 

Ohio State to cover 

 Citrus Bowl - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

The Hawkeyes   and Wildcats  use their ground attacks as their no1 option to move the chains and both  play strong defense . Both are patient and can force mistakes. Both play similar styles but Im betting the Wildcats are the superior side. 

KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS  after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

 Bowl teams that scored 3 or less points in their last game are 1-11 ATS L/12 opportunities. (Iowa lost 42-3 to Michigan to end their season)

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (IOWA) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 9-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an inexperienced QB as starter 32-2 L/29 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors  with the average ppg diff clicking in at +16.6 ppg which qualifies on this offered ATS line. 

Play on Kentucky to cover 

Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

The Cowboys were in my humble opinion the most under rated team in the nation this season, behind a top tier D, and explosive offense . The Cowboys were also  5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season and must be respected here away from home vs a Notre Dame side that will be without their top  RB Kyren Williams and their best defensive player DB Kyle Hamilton . 

Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 bowl games are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games. Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. Cowboys are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.

NOTRE DAME is 14-33 ATS L/47 versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 or less yards/play. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS  after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

Early on this season, the Lions looked like Big 10 Contenders , but some close loses to top tier competition looked to take the wind out of them down the stretch. Im now betting we see Penn State  back in top form . I know Arkansas looked strong down the stretch but their defense remains vulnerable and could easily be their Achilles heel in this Bowl tilt. Razorbacks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. 

PENN ST is 21-9 ATS L/30  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return . PENN ST is 7-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Franklin is 8-1 ATS   after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of PENN ST.  .Nittany Lions are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (ARKANSAS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 13-22 L/10 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Georgia is the best team in the nation, and deserve to be 10 point favs according to my projections. I know Michigan has had a fine season, but this is a special SEC  group of Bulldogs and they deserve the ultimate respect. I know anything can happen in one game, and upsets are possible but 99 out 100 times this Georgia team comes out with a conclusive victory according to my projections. Miracles are beautiful things to behold, but Im betting today wont bring any Sister Lucia like enlightenment to the Orange Bowl.  Note: SEC Bowl favorites are 9-3 ATS L/12 versus the Big Ten. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 61-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Georgia to cover 

Cotton Bowl Classic - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oh boy here I go Im going to bet against Nick Saban's Alabama. Im not only feeling brave, but confident. I know old Nick has a reputation as virtually unbeatable, but this is a  big spread and  the advantage must go to an undefeated side that has proven itself consistently against top tier opposition covering  their L/7 vs above .900 opposition like Alabama. The Bearcats were also 7-0 ATS against above.500 foes this season. Bottom line: Cincinnatis D is very strong, even when considering this type of explosive offensive  opposition. Note: The Bearcats own the No. 1  Team Passing Efficiency Defense, and rank  No. 3  in the nation in Red Zone Defense. This Im betting keeps them competitive enough to get us the cover. 

CINCINNATI is 9-0 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5  or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS   after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Sun Bowl - Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX

Im a fan of Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain, who  has a money making  12-5 SUATS   coming off a bye  including 7-1 ATS  run when coming off a victory. He has really put together a tough and explosive group together here with the Chips and deserves respect for his work and what is top tier preparation levels. They enter this game on a 4-0 SU/ATS run while averaging 41 points per game and Im betting will hang with their PAC 10 OPPONENTS . 

Pac-12’s  sides like Washington State are  1-23 ATS in bowl games against opposition  coming off a win . 

C MICHIGAN is 13-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. WASHINGTON ST is 0-6 ATS  after a bye week over the last 3 seasons

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (C MICHIGAN) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 39-20 ATS L/5 seasons for 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Central Michigan to cover

The Badgers looked strong down the stretch winning 7 of their L/8 games and deserve respect here vs Arizona State tonight . I know ASU have been strong defensively, but the Badgers are from a conference with some hardcore top tier defenses, and  wont be phased . With that said,  I really feel the Badgers have an edge, on both sides of the ball. 

The Badgers have only failed to cover 1 of their L/7  postseason tilts . From a historical view:  Vegas Bowl  has seen the  favorites, cash 7 of the L/10 times. Wisconsin has won 7 of their L/8 Bowl games SU. 

Note: [RB] 12/09/2021 - Rachaad White is OUT Thursday vs Wisconsin ( Personal )

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WISCONSIN) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 61-30 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 

Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Pitt won’t have  their super star QB  Kenny Pickett  tonight as he opts out to to prepare for the NFL draft while Michigan State won’t have their prize RB Kenneth Walker III  in the lineup. But like I have said many times before RBs are easily replaced , while big time QBs are not easily replaced. Advantage Michigan State.

Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.

Big 10 have  owned the ACC in bowl  games, going  7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Michigan State to cover 

Air Force as we know are going to pound the the ball via the run   behind an  offense that averaged 341.4 YPG with their ground attack this season, and nothing will change today, vs a Louisville side that Im betting will have their hands full from the get go in this Bowl tilt. 

Note: Louisville ended their season on a down note getting pummeled 52-21 by Kentucky allowing 352 yards on the ground. LOUISVILLE is 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games off a home loss by 14 or more points. 

AIR FORCE is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.

Note:Neutral field underdogs (AIR FORCE) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games are 31-8 L/29 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out gaining  opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 9--31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 

Auburn gave a top tier Alabama team a decent battle losing by a 24-22 count to finish their season, and must be respected here against a Houston team that is talented but not of the same talent level as their SEC opponent . It will be the superior D, of the tigers that Im betting will be the difference maker. 

HOUSTON is 1-11 ATS L/12  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return .  

Houston from a historical level is just  0-4 SUATS in the last four bowl appearances,. Also the AAC is a ugly 0-13 ATS as bowl pup  of 7 or less points. 

Holgorsen is 6-21 ATS after a bye week in all games he has coached since 1992.Holgorsen is 2-10 ATS  n December games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Auburn to cover 

Camellia Bowl - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Senior quarterback Drew Plitt Im betting will be the key for Ball State Cardinal on Christmas Day.  He enters this game with a 124.9 quarterback rating while completing 60.5 % of his passes for 2,248 yards with 17 touchdowns . I know what perceptions are, but according to my cross conference power rankings Ball State matches up well vs Georgia State. 

BALL ST is 13-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. BALL ST is 7-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (BALL ST) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games are 19-7 SU L/29 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BALL ST) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 38-19 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ball State to cover 

Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

Florida melted in the Heat of Gainesville this fall. HC Mullen  and the core of his assistants is gone, and were they're betting backers worst nightmare going 0-6 ATS down the stretch. On the flip-side HC Malzahn is experienced going against  SEC sides, like Florida when he was with Auburn, so he wont feel overwhelmed by this sub standard group of Gators. Note: Malzahn 13-2 SU L/15 vs above  .500 or less SEC opposition , including 7-1 SUATS on the road and get my support here getting points. 

FLORIDA is 1-8 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 38-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on UCF to cover 

This is like a defacto home game for North Texas as Denton is just down the highway  from the Frisco Bowl( maybe in hr in traffic)  With that said, the Mean Green enter this game with a lot of momentum as they finished their season on 6-0 SU/ATS run and must be respected here as what must be looked at as home  underdogs. 

RedHawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.RedHawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. CUSA.RedHawks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.

NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse this season.NORTH TEXAS is 7-0 ATS  after playing a conference game this season.

Play on North Texas to cover 

Armed Forces Bowl - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

 The much maligned D of the Tigers actually matches up well against Army's smallish offensive line ( no one over 290 pounds). I know Missouri had problems slowing the run this season, but they do matchup well here according to power rankings. Meanwhile, Army's defensive line is a big strong group, but they are substantially slower than the Tigers offense, and Im betting they have problems slowing this superior athletic SEC group. I know the popular pick in Bowl season are military colleges behind their triple option, but this is just to big spread according to my projections making getting points here golden.Black Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (ARMY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 10-20  L/10 seasons for a go against  67% conversion rate. 

Play on Missouri to cover