Cardinal getting a little bit to much respect here as they have failed to cover both road games this season. Meanwhile, NC State 3-1  has yet to really get untracked behind QB transfer from Virginia Brennan Armstrong who according to my QB matchup ratings matches up well vs this Louisville secondary. Advantage to the home underdog. 

LOUISVILLE is 27-44 ATS  in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover

KState lost at Missouri last time out as favs and will now be very prepared to bounce back at home this week vs visiting UCF. Note: KANSAS ST is 8-1 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS STATE is also 11-2 ATS when coming off their first loss of the season. UCF against their only FBS opponent this season lost to Boise State by a 18-16 count, and things look to be alot more tougher this week against a motivated opponent looking to get back into the win column. 

UCF is 0-7 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF beat up on a lower tier Villanova side last week by a 48-14 count ) 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (KANSAS ST) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 36-1 L/5 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking at +23.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Kansas State to cover

What  stands out here for me when I decided to take the points is Sam Houstons  D, which held their first two opponents to under 260 yards  while holding BYU and Air Force to 14 and 13 respectively. With the Cougars off a TCU battle, and now looking ahead  the Bearkats have a team that could find their motivational skills tested . Houston has lost the stats battle in all 3 games this season ,  and just dont look all that cohesive vs a upstart that will rattle them physically. Note: Sam Houston is 2-0 ATS this season. HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS  as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sam Houston to cover

Wow what an embarrassment last week for the Razorbacks , at home vs BYU. Talk about falling a sleep at the proverbial wheel. The reason why I say this is that the Hogs owned the stats battle, outing gaining the Cougars by a 424-281 margin. Now going against a team that they were probably looking ahead in a  revenger for last season loss  against LSU  (LSU beat Arkansas 13-10), I expect  Sam Pittman  who has only failed in  one of  8 ATS as is visitor with revenge  to get the job done here . Note: Arkansas is also  7-1-1 ATS  on the road with conference revenge on board. .  : LSU is 0-8-1 ATS L/9 when favored by 13 or more points in conference home openers. .

Play on Arkansas to cover

Its obviously taking some time to get this version of the Crimson Tide to tho jell, but you can bet HC Saban will be primed to have his team prepared for undefeated Ole Miss here this week, after his first home game of the season vs Texas ended in surprising disaster. Last time out after that debacle the Tide started slowly but the D, shined in. a17-3 win vs USF, and once again will be the key to a Alabama victory here today vs a program they have beaten 15 of the L/16 times. It must also be noted that Saban in his  career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, is 8-0 SUATS the L/8 opportunities and is also 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory and 4-0 SU/ATS versus undefeated sides with huge DD margin of victory being registered . Its been tough sledding on offense for Alabama but this week vs a over rated Ole Miss D, they do enough to get us the win and cover on a beat down opening line.   .

Play on Alabama to cover 

Vanderbilt could not even beat a Mountain West team last week losing to UNLV by a 40-37 count. I know that Kentucky plays Florida next week, but Im absolutely sure they will still be focused enough to dispose of this defensively deficient Commodores team in what will be a near empty stadium this Saturday.  CFB Road favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 43-1 SU with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +23.5 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Kentucky to cover

 Clemson not getting much respect here as the Seminoles are listed a road favs.  Thats interesting since considering   Dabo  Swinney is 93-8 SU since taking over the program 15 seasons ago ,  and  in Death Valley against undefeated opposition is  14-0 since 2015.  It must also be noted that the Seminoles may not be as good as they record suggests after a ugly late game effort vs Boston College last week, where they just about lost,. With  head coach Mike Norvell  losing 3 of 5 SU  and just 1-4 ATS away in conference games when coming in with no losses, its not like the Seminoles deserve this much respect as Norvell has lost both meetings against Swinnney in his career.  Tigers are  also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in the last five in this  series  and get the nod again on their own home turf. CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS   in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game since 1992. FLORIDA ST is 21-37 ATS  in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) . an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 45-16 ATS since 1992 for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Clemson to cover

Wisconsin has owned this series winning 16 straight meetings and covering 13 of those. With HC Fickell looking like he has this Badgers team on the rise again, Im betting they get the job done vs a disorganized looking Purdue side, that continually makes bad offensive reads and a defense that has allowed and average of 30 plus points per game. 

Play on Wisconsin to cover

Georgia State looked explosive in thier first 3 games of the season with wins vs Rhode Island Connecticut and Charlotte scoring 42,35, and 41 points respectively. With revenge on board for a ugly loss to Coastal Carolina last season, you can bet we will be backing a wide awake side that will come out here with all guns blazing. With that said, its interesting to note that the Chanticleers are 0-6-1 ATS L/7 vs a side that will play them with revenge as a motivating factor.  

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

 GEORGIA ST is 11-1 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

COASTAL CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992.

Play on Georgia State to cover

Ken Wilson’s   Nevada  are a defensively challenged team as is evident by   allowing 552 yards per game ranking them (No. 123 in the country). thats not a good omen heading into this tilt vs an explosive Kansas Jayhawks side, that ranks No.10 in the nation in offense averaging 530 yards per game averaging 41 point per game. With that said, this looks very much to be a  mismatch of mammoth proportions. Note: Kansas is  10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 20 or more  point favorite . 

NEVADA is 0-6 ATS when they allow 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at  - 30.2 . 

CFB home team (NEVADA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 8-40 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Kansas to cover

After upsetting Alabama last week the Texas Longhorns are in a huge emotional letdown situation. Also because of this the line is becoming public heavy offering us a great opportunity for a underdog cover vs a Wyoming side that is stable on both sides of the ball  and off a win vs Texas Tech last time out . This is a tough spot for the Longhorns as they have Baylor on board next time out, so their attention may not be fully where they need it to be.

TEXAS is 21-37 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

Longhorns are also  0-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorites  in matchups when they are  off an upset victory as a underdog of 7 or more points. 

Wyoming is 3-0 ATS L/3 meetings in this series.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

The New Mexico Lobos are  0-8 ATS the last eight as a favorite and Im betting their losing run continues today in the battle of instate rivals here today. Lobos, are also 1-7 ATS the last eight games in this series.Last season NM State took a  21-9 win as 7-point chalk at Las Cruces  and I dont believe that the Lobos have made enough changes to get the revenge they want .

New Mexico State to cover

Syracuse Orange have looked impressive in their first two games, but they haven't  faced any top tier opponents, only taking out  a Group of Five opponent and a nonmajor side.Syracuse won last season's meeting with Purdue at home by, 32-29 count, as the teams combined for 42 fourth-quarter points , but now Im betting on the home side once again finding a way to come out on top . Dino Barber is a good coach , but this according to my power rankings is bad matchup for his side. Note: the Orange have struggled on the road, winning just five of their last 20 road games. They have also won just three of their L/17 tilts against Big Ten opposition. 

Play on Purdue to cover

Tennessee has lost 10 straight visits to the Swamp and Im betting knocking out that jinx run wont come easily today behind QB Joe Milton who cant seem to find a rhythm. You can bet HC Napier and company will play hard here vs a side, that will finally play a tough opponent after two FCSc cupcakes. Napier is also 3-0 SU/ATS with Florida as an underdog at home. 

CFB home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% onversion rate. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-6 ATS L/31` seasons for  a 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Florida to cover

JMU took out Virginia last week 36-35 and must be respected here against Troy getting points. Troys 12 game undefeated run came to a screeching halt in their tilt last week,  in a 42-13 loss to KsState and now they are in jeopardy of a two game losing streak. JMU is 22-8 in conference openers, which includes winning its past eight between 2015 and 2022.This is also JMU's fifth straight conference opener on the road.Last season, JMU rallied back from down 28-3 at App State, scoring 29 unanswered for a thrilling 32-28 win.

Play on James Madison to cover

This asking price for Georgia is just a little bit high according to my projections. In no shape or form am I saying south Carolina will pull of an uspet here, but they should be competitive. It must be noted that The  GameCocks  own a  7-0 ATS record  as the visitors in this series and must be respected in their ability to stay within the number. South Carolina has cashed 4 of their L/5 as road dogs of 15 points or more. 

Smart is 7-19 ATS  as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points as the coach of GEORGIA. Smart is 1-8 ATS  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of GEORGIA

GEORGIA is 3-12 ATS  in home games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.GEORGIA is 6-16 ATS in home games after a 2 game home stand since 1992.

Play on South Carolina to cover

Georgia Southern must not be underestimated getting this may points as they  look to an explosive offensive side that can put points up on the board in a hurry as is evident  by averaging 41.5 PPG in their first two games and wins of the season. It must be noted that Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS in their L/2 vs the Sunbelt and looked lethargic at times vs Washington State in a loss last time out. Whiskey is just 1-7 ATS L/8 when coming off a road loss.  Im not a big Luke Fickell fan and have no problems fading his ability to inspire the Badgers at home in Camp Randall today where the Badgers are just 12-12 ATS L/24 overall.  Last season, the Eagles stunned Nebraska 45-42, another Big Ten opponent, and Im betting they compete here today. 

Play on Georgia southern to cover 

Virginia fell part late falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a very good JMD side last week giving up 12 points in the final quarter to lose 36-35 but Im betting on a  wide awake bounce back effort  here tonight against a Maryland side that they have covered against in their L/4 trips here in the visitors role. It must also be noted that this Virginia football program is 5-0 ATS in road openers off a loss. 

CFB home team (MARYLAND) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a sub par rushing team (100  or less RY/game) are 8-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team (VIRGINIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia to cover

Mississippi State in memory of ther late coach Mike Leach put up a huge effort winning a decisive  48-7 decision vs SE Louisiana last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this week, that will likely see regression. It must be noted that Mississippi State smashed the Arizona   by  22 points back  in 2022  (39-17)and now with revenge on board, you can bet this Wildcats side will be primed to play and with them getting points Im betting we have value. 

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 3-22 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - team with a horrible scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 19-6 L/31 seasons for. a76% conversion rate. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

The Knights beat the  Northwestern Wildcats last time out  24-7, in a tilt that  saw Rutgers gain just  283 yards of offense which tells me that this team is being over rated here . Meanwhile, the Owls  came from behind to beat a pretty good Akron team last time by allowing the Zips to just 38 yards of offense in the 2nd half. Note:  The Owls program has cashed 6 of their L/7 openers  against opposition that just notched a victory.Schiano is 0-6 ATS  off a win against a conference rival as the coach of RUTGERS.

CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 6-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.2 . 

Play on Temple to cover

Texas almost tripped up Saban and company last season losing a 20-19 heart breaker , but now Alabama will come in here very prepared and ready to make a statement and not be ambushed again vs the Longhorns. It must be noted that Saban vs his  former assistants is 28-2 SU and 4-0 SU/ATS as a host when favored by  18 points or less. Also Texas has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 non conference away tilts and must not be over estimated in their ability to compete in this  SEC road environment. Saban is 19-9 ATS  in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ALABAMA. Best Bet.

Alabama to cover

I know The Broncos lost their first game of the season in ugly fashion, but this this is a  much better team than their performance vs Washington last week, and now Im expecting them to have a huge bounce back effort here on the blue carpet against a over rated UFC football program. I know Central Florida can really light things up, but this Boise side ranked 11th in the nation in D, last season, and are more than capable  of slowing  down their explosive opposition .  Boise State is 21-0 SU  in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one campaigns and Im betting wont easily be defeated here tonight at home. 

UCF is 0-6 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF won 56-6 vs Kent State last week)

BOISE ST is 12-3 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points since 1992.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 26-6 L/31 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boise State to cover

The Georgia State Panthers took  a seven point victory over Rhode Island last week but their defense looked atrocious as is evident by giving up 35 points on 520 total yards .  They score enough to come out with a win, but that was nota good look and will be their downfall this week, as I dont believe their offense can be as effective vs this under rated UConn side that gave a good N.Carolina State squad all they could handle in a 24-14 loss. Note: Georgia state have lost 7 of their L/11 at home SU and are not solid favs. 

UConn to cover 

Miami out gained  Texas A&M last season by a 392-264 count but couldnt punch through for a victroy, but this season, in this venue could see them turn the trick in the rematch.   It must be noted that the Aggies program has not faired well in road openers in the recent past in their L/17  as visitors to start their season  have  failed to cover 6 games  as a favorite of 3 or more points.  Miami is also  5-0 SUATS the last five as  a non-conference home dog, and are once again value line underdogs vs a over rated opponent. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.( Miami smashed Miami O last week 38-3)

Miami to cover

I know Colorado had a big game and upset TCU last week, but now Im betting the Buffs   to be in an emotional letdown situation and ripe for an upset of their own. Hey I know Nebraska just cant get over the hump no matter who their coach is , but HC Rhule deserves respect in the underdog role on the road where his teams are 9-3 ATS . ( Lost ot Minnesota 13-10 last week in a grinding affair, andIm betting they can turn this game into trench warfare again)

COLORADO is 0-7 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO is 9-22 ATS  in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game since 1992.

CFB road team (NEBRASKA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 53-22 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NEBRASKA is 7-3 straight up against COLORADO since 1992 here on the road. 

Play on Nebraska to cover

North Carolina State took a  10-point win at under rated  UConn and must be respected here at home as dogs.It must be noted that HC  Dave Doeren is  4-1 ATS at home in abattle of  of undefeated sides, and 12-0 SU  in home openers. I know the Irish mashed a couple of over rated  patsies ( Navy, Tenn State) but this is whole diff type of team they face here this afternoon . 

Hartman has struggled against the Wolfpack's 3-3-5 defense over the years- Im betting on a Rince and repeat situation. 

NOTRE DAME is 2-11 ATS  in road games after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - off a home win by 17 points or more, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 21-52 ATS L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NC State to cover

Duke is 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season home openers  and  last season were 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in HC Mike Elko’s  first season at the helm of the Blue Devils football program. Meanwhile, the Clemson Tigers vaunted D, has to replace four NFL draft picks giving  Dukes Junior quarterback Riley Leonard a chance at a big night as he looks to pad a  33 touchdown and a  3,600 yards offensive performance  last season. This is a opportunity to make a statement here for Elko and his q8 returning starters. With that said,  Im on this Blue Devils group as Im betting they  will be primed to really come out here and play hard tonight in a never say die take no prisoners gridiron battle.DUKE is 8-0 ATS  in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Duke to cover

Florida State has 18 returning starters off a 10 win campaign, while their opponents the LSU Tigers were hit hard by the NFL draft losing 10 starters from last seasons group. It must also be noted that the Tigers have been virtual pussy cats on the road failing to cover 6 of their L/8 overall while the Seminoles are 9-0-2 ATS in their L/11 games played in Orlando and are 7-1 SU L/8 games in this series and according to my power rankings matchup well here vs the young men from the Bayou. LSU has lost its last 3 season openers and I would not be surprised if they register another one here as the Seminoles vaunted ground game does enough to get through a tough Tigers run D. 

Play on Florida State to cover

OSU finished last season on a  7-0 ATS run and enter this season with momentum while their opponents San Jose State finished their campaign on an  exact polar opposite 0-7 ATS run and than lost their opener this season to USC by a 56-28 count. SJU is just 1-26 SU in their L/27 line road games vs PAC 12 opponents and look to once again be cannon fodder in this tilt vs what is a far superior side.

OREGON ST is 8-1 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +19.9.

Play on Oregon State to cover  

This year will mark the fourth straight  season that Northwestern begins against a Big Ten opponent, having beaten Nebraska last year, fallen to Michigan State in 2021 and crushing  Maryland in 2020. Northwestern is on a two-game winning streak against Rutgers dating back to 2018.  Rutgers has averaged only 22 points per game vs. NU in 3 all time events, and Im betting they have problems scoring again in a game I have pegged to be a 1 score event giving us value with the TD + underdog line. 

Schiano is 3-11 ATS  in home games against conference opponents as the coach of RUTGERS.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season are 59-26 ATS L/31 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 5-28 L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northwestern to cover

 UCLA no longer has QB Dorian Thomas-Robinson  but with 16  starters returning for the Bruins they should be just fine. With  former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo in the fold  for the Bruins some new looks could really make a the Bruins a dark-horse candidate this both in the PAc 12 and and the nation. Kelly has cashed his last 3 home openers and will once again be primed to juice an opponent, especially one traveling from east to west . Note: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover 8 of their L/12 as DD dogs.  New CC HC Tim Beck has his hands full, in a game that Im betting ends in a conclusive UCLA win and cover

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 94-45 ATS L/31 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover

NC Coach Mack Brown  is 26-4 SU in season openers, including winning 18 of his L/19. and with 18 starters back and top tier QB at the helm in Drake Maye and you have  situation where the  Heels are being under rated vs the over hyped  Heisman hopeful QB Caleb Williams and company of South Carolina . With revenge on board for a ugly 38-21 loss back in 2021 , Mack will be primed to have his  team ready out of the gate again this season. Note: The Gamecocks have lost 5 of their L/6 vs the ACC, while the Heels are a perfect 5-0 vs sides from the SEC as fav of 4 points or less like they are here today. 

North Carolina to cover

Akron lost alot of close games last season, but now with improved running game, and the talented DJ Irons back at QB, they could find a way to make the gap small enough to ramp up more wins and more importantly covers and be even  more competitive from a W/L perspective. 

Temple is still not back to their top programs they had  12 years ago, and Im projecting no more than a 4 wins this season and in their current form do not look capable of covering this line as favs. 

 CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in non-conference games are 49-20 L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors, 

Play on Akron to cover

NIU went 3-9 last season, but five of the losses were by eight points or fewer. The 2021 team went 7-2 in games decided by eight points or less. Last year an array of injuries really gutted them and 2021 they were healthy. This program is built to be tough as nails, and out of the gate they are fairly healthy and deserve respect here as underdogs. The dogs are not  a deep team but the starting 22 are projected to be gridiron  take no prisoners war lords. Im betting Boston College has their hands full here today. 

N ILLINOIS is 53-26 ATS  as a road underdog since 1992. Hammock is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of N ILLINOIS.

CFB road team vs. the money line (N ILLINOIS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 26-10 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northern Illinois to over 

Hawaii covered 6 of their L/7 games last season and enter here with momentum vs a Vanderbilt program that despite of being hefty favorites , may not warrant such a backing from the lines-makers .  The last 4 times Vandy has been installed as non conference favs they failed each time, and Im betting that will be the case again vs a Rainbow Warriors side that has redemption in mind after an ugly 63-10 opening day  loss to  the Commodores last season. 

VANDERBILT is 0-7 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  home team vs. the money line (VANDERBILT) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 4-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Hawaii to cover

The Bobcats completed the 2022 season with a 10-4 record, going 7-1 in the MAC conference play, that was a after a slow start--  they won  seven of their final eight games and deserve respect here as underdogs with momentum on their sides. With top tier QB  Kurtis Rourke back to 100% healthy after a late season injury the Bobcats are a side to be feared. The Aztecs will be formidable at home behind what is expected be another strong defensive group, but its their offense that remains less than formidable , and could easily find the sledding tough against a D, that improved significantly as last season progressed. Im expecting a close game but taking the points here looks to be the most  advantageous investment option. 

Play on Ohio to cover

The UTEP Miners have four returning all-stars with the interior loaded with tough veterans to go along with Steven Hubbard at left tackle. they were good last season in protection mode and really helped the running game progress and Im betting they will be even better this season. This is a hard hitting squad thats not easy to play against and must be respected on a short line vs a Jacksonville State side that is new to the FBS. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State might be primed to get a win out of the gate here, but with what my projections estimate is a sub par D, that will probably not come here today.

CFB home team vs. the money line (JACKSONVILLE ST) - team with a horrible scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, between two teams with 8 or more offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are just 3-22 L/31 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UTEP to cover

Navy's new HC and  former defensive coordinator,Brian Newberry brings respect to the sidelines, after Ken Niuamatolos departure after 16 seasons at the helm of this scholastic gridiron program. I know Notre Dame is the bigger and better brand, but Middies must not be disrespected here as underdogs in this long time series rivalry. Note: The Irish are only 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field vs a military college, and military schools of 20+ or more point dogs have been a bankroll expanding cash cow for their backers producing at a positive 83-39-3 ATS clip the L/43 seasons. With 18 returning starters in the lineup Navy will be well prepared to stay within this number here in Ireland this Saturday. 

Play on Navy to cover

TCU enters this game hitting on all cylinders offensively scoring an average 47 points per game in their L/3 trips to to gridiron. Meanwhile, somethings not right defensively with Georgia as they have now allowed 71 points and 1,013 yards in its last two tilts. Also after finding a way to barely get by Ohio State last time out in miraculous fashion, Im betting they are in a huge emotional letdown situation against a TCU side that is expected to lose and play with alot less pressure than their opponents  , thus giving us a hefty cushion on what my projections estimate is a slightly bloated line. Note: The L/4 teams that made it back to the College Football championship game, are 0-4 /SU/ATS. Also .750 or better DD  bowl pups entering off a SU underdog win are 5-0 ATS  dating back to the 2008 season .Add to that  bowl teams taking 13 points or more on the opening line are 7-0 ATS going against .900 plus win % sides dating back to the 2013 campaign.

Dykes is 31-16 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. Favorites in the Championship game have failed to cover 5 of the L/8 times and are 0-2 SU/ATS vs non undefeated opposition like TCU. 

Take the points with TCU 

Penn State finished their season playing a top tier brand of football winning their L/4 games . This Nitanny Lions football  program  is as streaky as they come and when their hot their hot and hard to stop. Note:  PSU's is  16-3 SU and 17-1 ATS when coming off 

 two or more  SU/ATS victories which is the case here going up against Utah of the Pc 12. Franklin is also  8-0 ATS  after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 13-1 ATS  off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals as the coach of PENN ST.

Utes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.

Utes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

CFB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PENN ST) - after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/40 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Im betting USC is in emotional letdown situation after blowing an opportunity to be in the National Championship play off series by losing to Utah in their PAC 12 finale. Meanwhile, Tulane has looked better and better each week this season and deserve respect here to pull of the upset. Bowl teams with the Heisman Trophy winner like USC ( QB  Caleb Williams) are  0-8 SUATS off SU/ATS loss dating back since 1980. .TULANE is 7-1 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.Fritz is 12-3 ATS   versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25  or more rushing yards/carry as the coach of TULANE.

Play on Tulane to cover 

I saw and listened the reaction of Ohio State players and the coaching staff after their loss to Michigan, and that defeat Im betting put a fire under their proverbial behinds  of this team and they  will now be ready for a huge redemption vs a top tier opponent Georgia. OHIO ST is 12-2 ATS  in road games off a home loss since 1992. Day is 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of OHIO ST. It must be noted  Ohio State was ranked ahead of Georgia when the season began and are being under rated here.

OHIO ST is 21-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

CFB Teams like Georgia who were victorious  and covered their conference title tilt are 0-10 SU L/14 seasons against opposition coming off a SU loss as a chalk like Ohio State. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

Gator Bowl - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

Biggest issue with the Fighting Irish is their  No. 129 in Red Zone Defense . Im betting S.Carolina will score above their season average because of this and that their own D will hold the  fort here. Note: HC Beamer  of the Gamecocks has recorded a  6-1 ATS record vs. non-conference opposition  and  have cashed 4 SU underdog wins this season and Im betting rings the bell again here and cashes a ticket for us. 

S CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.

Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December. Notre Dame is 7-15 SUATS in its last 17 bowl games.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NOTRE DAME) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with an inexperienced QB as starter are 91-150 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on South Carolina to cover 

 Pittsburgh ,  ended their season in top form winning four consecutive tilts to close the campaign,  keyed by a defense  that allowed just 14.5 PPG during that top tier span. The Panthers matchup well vs a UCLA side that has been inconsistent this season despite of alot of pundits  backing them for bigger in better things since before this season began. Today /Im betting the superior D, which Pittsburgh pwns  will get the job done and get us the cover. Note: Pac-12 Bowl sides like  UCLA that  allow more than 25 PPG  are 0-14 ATS the last 14 opportunities. 

UCLA is 11-24 ATS   in road games after a bye week since 1992. Narduzzi is 11-3 ATS  in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.Bruins are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.Bruins are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (PITTSBURGH) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 77-37 ATS L10/ seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Duke's Mayo Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC

My Bowl matchup power rankings suggest like the linesmakers do,  that these sides are evenly matched but why I like the NC State in a close game is  because NC State   has Christopher Dunn, who won the Lou Groza Award for the nation’s best kicker on their side of the filed. Advantage NC State.

Terps head Terrapin Locksley is  3-39 SU  vs a side with a better record.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (NC STATE) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/game), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 24-2 L/30 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover 

The Longhorns had a very good season and  lost only four games  with two defeats coming against top 10 programs. Today against a suspect Huskies D, Im betting the Longhorns will dominate . Yes, there are some top running backs not playing for the Texas today but with the talented Jonathan Brooks waiting for his chance to impress the Longhorns will be fine.

Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games. Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Pac-12.

WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS  in road games after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.Huskies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.Pac-12 Bowl teams like Washington  that allow  25 or more  PPG are  0-14 ATS in their L/14 bowl appearances.

Play on Texas to cover 

Syracuse  was ranked  5th in the nation in Team Defense despite of a up and down season and are being disrespected here by the public in their ability to be competitive. Both sides, feature strong RBs, and Im betting on a grinding affair that is much closer then the public and  lines-makers expect.

Babers is 9-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of SYRACUSE.

Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

Syracuse is 13-3-1 SU and 13-4 ATS Bowl games.Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Tech won its last three games of the regular season when quarterback Tyler Shough returned to the starting lineup , and Ole Miss lost their L/3 games. But despite of this I still like what my power ranking suggest is the superior side. Note: Bowl sides like Texas Tech  coming in on 3-0 SUATS  run are just   9-27 SU and 8-28 ATS when going against  an opposing side  coming off a SU favorite loss like Ole Miss is losing their finale to Mississippi State 24-22. as 2 point chalk .Kiffin is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. TEXAS TECH is 1-8 ATS  after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

I know Arkansas is missing quite few players from their regular roster, but this is still a deep SEC side that played alot of formidable teams this season and looked good for the most part and Sam Pittman will have them ready compete . Meanwhile, Kansas despite of having their star QB Daniels back in the lineup, are a side that is atrocious defensively, and Im betting Arkansas takes advantage of their porous so called stopping units. Key here is the Jayhawks D,  that allows an average of 356 ppg and Im betting it gets smashed.  I know everyone loves a dog , especially one with an explosive offense but like said, the Kansas D is their Achilles heal. 

CFB team (ARKANSAS) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or better YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 11-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a  go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

 QB Grayson McCall  has grabbed Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year honors three times in his top tier Collegiate career and he holds  numerous QB records at Coastal Carolina. This will be his last game in Coastal Carolina uniform and Im betting he will be primed to perform before entering the transfer portal. I know the Chanticleer's were beat up on their two final game sof the season, by two strong opponents James Madison and Troy, which abruptly ended a 9-1 run, but Im betting those tilts will have them prepared to take on a explosive East Carolina offense,  but an  inconsistent  group that can struggle defensively. (East Carolina ended their season allowing 42 and 46 points respectively to Houston and Temple. COASTAL CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS   vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (COASTAL CAROLINA) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 76-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

Utah State (6-6) won five of its last seven regular-season games to qualify for a Bowl appearance. It was a struggle at times this season, but they must not be underestimated in their ability to cover vs the Memphis Tigers. Remember this is a program that won 11 games last season.  The Aggies defeated three teams that earned bowl invitations this season: UConn, Air Force and San Jose State. and own  an over 1,000-yard rusher and nine all-conference-type players. 

MWC Bowl sides  5-0 SUATS vs. AAC opposition. 

NCAAF  Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 76-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on Utah State to cover 

Camellia Bowl - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Georgia Southerns  offense behind QB Vantrease can be explosive but his propensity to throw interceptions (15 this season) is something that must be considered detrimental. Meanwhile,  quarterback Cole Snyder, a  transfer from Rutgers started all 12 games in the regular season for Buffalo; he completed 59.2% of his passes for 2,765 yards, along with 17 touchdowns and eight picks and must not be underestimated in his ability to play at top level , especially against a  Eagles D  that  rank 124th in defensive SP+. Comparing records isolated key trends that directly effected my perceptions of this matchup as Buffalo was 5-1 ATS as Bowl teams this season , while GSU 0-5/SU 1-4 ATS against bowl sides. 

Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (BUFFALO) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game.are 76-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

Bowling green is over rated as is evident by ranking 105th in offense and 106th in the nation on Defense. Meanwhile, New Mexico State under Jerry Kill has impressed me with his upgrading of this team, and how well they finished the season. Considering Kill has had success against MAC sides winning 20- of 27 attempts in his career SU vs this conference including an 18-2 SU mark vs sub .500 sides like Bowling Green. With that said  it will be an easy decision o take the points here with a side this very hungry program. 

Play on New Mexico State to cover

Air Force behind their triple option offense  is ranked  No. 1 in the nation  in Time of Possession and Im betting they burn plenty of clock time and slow down Baylors offensive prowess because of breaking up their flow.  The Fly boys are also No. 1 team in the nation in Overall Defense and must not be disrespected in their ability to slow down a strong Baylor attack… The Falcons have also had great success in Bowl games cashing  10 of their   last 13 bowl games.  With Big 12 sides just 0-3 L/3 vs Military schools and Baylor having lost  5 of their L/7 here at this venue SU its an easy decision to grab the points with the under rated underdog. 

Calhoun is 29-11 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of AIR FORCE

NFL Neutral field underdogs (AIR FORCE) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 75-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on Air Force to cover 

New Orleans Bowl - Caesars Superdome - New Orleans, LA

Western Kentuckys explosive big play offense can do damage against the best of Defenses. Im usually a proponent of strong defenses in Bowl games, but like I said the Hilltoppers can make strong Ds like South /Alabama owns  look very average as the football program has registered  350 or more yards  of offense in 27 straight games.

S ALABAMA is 5-15 ATS L/20  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record .

W KENTUCKY is 21-9 ATS L/30 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. W KENTUCKY is 32-13 ATS L/45 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Helton is 15-6 ATS  in road games in games played on turf as the coach of W KENTUCKY.

Western Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS in bowl games vs. .666  or better opposition and are a bankroll expanding 13-2 ATS as a dog vs. Sun Belt foes and 11-3 ITS against Bowl sides since last season.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

Boca Raton Bowl - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL

Liberty Im betting is being under estimated here in their abilities to pick up a straight up win and more importantly a cover even though they finished a down not as the team looked disappointed that they may lose their coach Freeze to a power 5 team, that dis materialize and now Im betting they will be ready to play.LIBERTY is 9-1 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.LIBERTY is 37-19 ATS   in non-conference games .Liberty is 3-0 SU against  MAC sides  L/3 seasons.  Freeze is 9-1 ATS   after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Toledo is 3-9 ATS in bowl games since 2002,Candle is 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of TOLEDO.

 MAC Bowl sides like Toledo are  just 6-28 SU and 8-25-1 ATS vs. opponents like Liberty  coming off a loss. 

Play on Liberty to cover 

Myrtle Beach Bowl - Brooks Stadium - Conway, SC

The   Uconn Huskies played well this season and got  bowl eligibility under first year HC Mora who has got this group to play disciplined tough football. It must be noted that first year HC s have cashed 10 of their L14 Bowls as  double-digit dogs  .  Here today, Im betting UConn stays fairly competitive vs the lowly No. 127 in the nation Red Zone Offense. 

CONNECTICUT is 19-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.  Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December. 

Play on UConn to cover 

Frisco Bowl - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

North Texas is getting to many points here according to my projections. Note: Conference title game losers  like North Texas as DD underdogs have cashed 8 of their L/10 opportunities. Also … CUSA Bowl sides are a perfect  5-0 ATS off a Double digit  defeat when going against. MWC opposition. NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons. Bennett is 12-4 ATS  as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of NORTH TEXAS.

 Boise State also lost their conference championship game to Fresno State- teams like this that lost their conference title tilt are 2-8 ATS in their Bowl appearances. 

key matchup stat:NORTH TEXAS is 9-2 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at +2.7. 

Play on North Texas to cover 

New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

I was surprised to see SMU as  favs in this game vs BYU even though  they will play without star RB Lopini Kotoa as there are viable alternatives in that position on this team looking to make a statement  The Mustangs enter this game  0-5 ATS as favs and  0-3 SU all-time in this series.  . Considering this is  Mustangs’ HC Rhett Lashlee’s first  ever bowl game , his lack  experience could easily work against him here, and I expect BYU to pound their way to cover   .SMU is 4-15 L/19 ATS (in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry . SMU is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less (which was the case last time out winning by 34-31 count vs Memphis.Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. INDEP.SMU is 2-11 ATS   in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games .

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (SMU) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences have lost  17 of L/27 opportunities SU. 

Play on BYU to cover

Cure Bowl - Exploria Stadium - Orlando, FL

These two teams enter this Bowl tilt on 10-game win streaks . There is a difference here though between both sides and that comes on defense.Troy’s defense has held  the  seven bowl teams they played to 17 PPG/326  total YPG on average . Meanwhile,UTSA  has had  defensive problems  against  Bowl sides this season allowing,  an average of 29 PPG/409 total YPG on average. There is on old adage that says defense wins big games but offense gets you to those big games. This was never truer here in this matchup as UTSA has shown more offensive prowess than the Trojans, but the Trojans defense is superior according to the numbers and its obvious how tenacious their D is if you have watched any of their games. 

Troy is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS against Bowl teams this season and have won their L/4 appearances. Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December.

TROY is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.

UTSA has never won a Bowl game and are 0-3 SU . 

Play on Troy to cover 

MW Championship Game

Boise State took out Fresno State 40-20 earlier this season, and Im betting the Bulldogs will not have a big enough turn around to get the revenge win in the rematch. Boise is 11-1 SU L/12 at home this series and have won 5 of 6 home games . Home field advantage will prevail once again.

BOISE ST is 33-17 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. Tedford is 14-28 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992.

 CFB home team vs. the money line (BOISE ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-2 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18.7. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FRESNO ST) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, off 3 straight wins against conference rivals are 13-38 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boise State to cover 

Ive made Troy -10 advantage favs here according to my own personal projection sheets. Thus laying this number makes for a viable wager. TROY is 7-1 ATS   against conference opponents this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.3 ppg. 

Note: Coastal Carolina is expected to play without  starting QB Grayson McCall. His replacement QB Jarrett Guest has not  shown much going  18-of-42 (42.9%) for 270 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs in conference and here vs an extremely strong Trojans D, more struggles should be expected.

CFB home team (TROY) - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 30-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover 

Since these teams have met earlier this season, the Utes D has become more physical and has come together and currently showing alot of chemistry. Im betting the Utes physicality and grit will be the difference maker in the rematch.Entering the Pac-12 Championship game, Utah leads the Pac-12 in third down and fourth down defense, first downs defense, passing defense, rushing defense, scoring defense, total defense and time of possession.  

It must be noted that on the season the Utes have the PPG differential advantage , winning by +19.3 as  compared to USC’s +16.2 ppg diff average. •    The Utes are averaging 39.4 points per game, ranking 10th nationally.

Utah is the only team in the Pac-12 that ranks in the top-20 nationally in both scoring offense and defense, ranking 10th and 19th.    In the last three games, Utah has been averaging 67.3 yards per scoring drive while averaging 51.4 in the previous nine games.  Utah is averaging 26.4 first downs per game while holding opponents to 15.5, ranking fourth in first down offense and 11th in first downs defense in the FBS.  

Note:Extending plays is Utah's specialty this season, ranking eighth in the FBS in third down conversions (.503)Utah ranks fifth in both sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed per game in the country.

UTAH is 22-10 ATS L/32  in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better. )  UTAH is 22-7 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

USC is 7-18 ATS in December games since 1992.

CFB  team (USC) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 11-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  team (UTAH) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more  YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 34-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover

 App State enters this game as a weak favorite in my betting opinion as their 2-7 ATS record in lined games would indicate as well as a ugly  1-7 ATS record  as a chalk. The Mounties have also failed to cover 4 straight and despite of a boatload full of talent seem like their missing decent chemistry.  On the flip-side we  have to remember that the home side needs a victory here to garner a Bowl invite so they will leave it on the field today .APPALACHIAN ST is 1-9 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.Clark is 11-21 ATS  as a favorite as the coach of APPALACHIAN ST. G Southern is 4-0 ATS L/4 home finales.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Iowa State takes on  a perfect 10-0 TCU side that is off a late FG win in a grueling tilt vs Baylor last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this Saturday. Add to that Iowa State despite of not being Bowl eligible have played much better down the stretch than earlier in the season and have out yarded their L/5 opponents . This could easily be the Cyclones biggest and most important game of the season from a personal perspective and I expect we see them leave everything on the field versus a side easily looking ahead to their upcoming Big 12 championship game. 

Iowa State has covered 6 straight aas conference road pups and are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series as underdogs. 

Campbell is 15-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of IOWA ST.

CFB road team (IOWA ST) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 179-106 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Liberty is off a 1 point loss to Vtech last week and are not in a good mood. This Liberty side is known as the king of cripple killers and Im betting their wrath has no end this week, against a side they overwhelmingly matchup up well against. Note: Liberty has crushed  sub  par .333 opponents by an average of  33 ppg in their L/17 opportunities  and  have covered  and won these events. 7-0 straight times in lined tilts. Rinse and repeat. 

Play on Liberty to cover 

After playing Illinois last week Michigan is bruised and banged up and Im betting that  will effect their performance this week vs. revenge minded Ohio State side that has had this game circled on their calendar for a while now after getting shellacked by a 42-27 count last season at the hands of the wolverines. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 20-50 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

Arkansas known as inconsistent football program under HC Pitman is off a huge win vs Miss last time out and now Bowl eligible will be in huge letdown spot vs a Missouri program that had success in this series over the years. Note: Arkansas has lost 11 of their L/15 off a upset win. 

ARKANSAS is 11-25 ATS L/37 as a road favorite . 

Drinkwitz is 9-2 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 yards/game as the coach of MISSOURI.

MISSOURI is 11-2 ATS L/13 in home games versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6.25  or more yards/play.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-62 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate. 

MISSOURI is 3-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS .MISSOURI is 4-0 straight up against ARKANSAS at Arkansas. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

Both these teams have identical 9-2 records on the season, and their only recent losses have both come to UCF in closely contested affairs. The difference maker today will come via Bearcats home field advantage and the fact this is a football program is use to high pressure games and will not fold under any kind of pressure. This is not the case for Tulane. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - off a double digit road win, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 36-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.1.

Play on Cincinnati cover

Fresno State is playing well and Nevada is not having suffered 8 straight losses after q 2-0 start to their campaign. I know the Bulldogs are the superior side, but they have not played well on the road this season losing the stats battles in 4 of 5 games. Im not doubting Fresno State wins here straight up, but I wont be surprised to see Nevada cover this spread and in fact Im betting they do. 

Nevada was blast 41-3 on the road like week in Boise State but it must be noted that this program has proved somewhat resilient in the past after a ugly offensive output going  14-3 ATS  L/17 in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game . 

Tedford is 0-7 ATS   in road games vs. poor teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Nevada to cover 

Georgia is a power house and heads and shoulders above most teams in this entire nation and have a history  of having strong performances in their final road games of the season registering an astounding 11-0 SU/ATS record. With that said, and despite of the hefty line offering laying this much lumber is a viable offering.  Note: CFB Road favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (GEORGIA) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against an average team (+/- 50 YPG) are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. 

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (KENTUCKY) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in November games are 16-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Play on Georgia to cover

UL Monroe has won their L/2 games, and now go against a strong Troy side, that despite of 8-2 overall record and a 7-0 run have only one win of more than 9 points during their current winning streak. Its Troys /D that does a majority of the top tier work, while the offense regularly struggles. My projections estimate this is just to many points to lay with the Trojans with the value sitting with the road dog with winning momentum .

"Don't let their record give you any indication," Troy coach Jon Sumrall said. "They're 4-6 by record but they lost by a score to Coastal Carolina, they lost by a score to South Alabama, and they played Alabama and Texas, two Power Five teams.

TROY is 0-10 ATS L/10  in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders . TROY is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 season.TROY is 4-14 ATS   in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%)

Play UL Monroe to cover 

The Georgia State Panthers must not be underestimated here vs James Madison as their  defense is staunch and has been dominating their opposition of late. It must be noted that in the last three trips to the gridiron they have given up a grand total 785 yards combined and they have sacked the QBs 15 times  during their current smash down of offenses.   I know James Madison is a fine football program, but they will feel the heat here today vs a gritty/physical side with a never say die attitude. 

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.  GEORGIA ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. GEORGIA ST is 8-0 ATS   in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (GEORGIA ST) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Its not my usual m.o to  lay this many points on the road . But Im betting we have a firm advantage here with the road team UTSA that has won 7 straight behind a consistent offense that will take advantage of Rice D, that has allowed 41,56, 30, 45 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. The Roadrunners are also trying to clinch a chamoionship game spot so motivation will be a huge factor this Saturday  Note:Road favorites vs. the money line (UTSA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 36-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering . UTSA has won the L/6 meetings in this series and have won and  covered the last 3. 

Play on UTSA to cover 

The defending Big 12 champs Baylor Bears were defeated  30-28 as 7.5-point chalk at TCU last season, and now have revenge on board and are redemption minded after a down effort last week vs Kansas State  in what Im betting was a look ahead situation that back fired on them from a attention standpoint. Now wide awake and ready to perform they are very viable underdogs at home vs a TCU side in an emotional letdown scenario after pulling off an upset on the road vs Texas last week. TCU is 5-15 ATS L/20 off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.

Baylor has covered  13 of their L/14  as an underdog when out looking for  conference revenge versus an opponent coming off a SUATS victory, including 8-0 ATS L/8 when playing as hosts.

.BAYLOR is 31-16 ATS L/47 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25  or more rushing yards/carry.BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.Aranda is 13-5 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of BAYLOR.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Despite of an array of returning players from last season, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU on the campaign and will not be going bowling this season. Meanwhile, 4-6 Miami O still has a chance at a Bowl invite and Im betting are very motivated  and well prepared to get a W here today. I know Northern Illinois is off a victory last time out, but that has not always been a recipe for success when facing this particular MAC football program going  0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win vs the Hawks. Overall Miami O is 7-1 ATS L/8 meetings in this series and get the nod here behind a solid D, that is allowing just 23 ppg. Note: Northern Illinois is allowing an average of 38 points per game ranking 114th nationally allowing 8.3 yp attempt and here even against a pedestrian Miami O offense wont necessarily be ready for any kind of sudden bounce back. 

MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.(lost to Ohio last time out)

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N ILLINOIS) - off a road win against a conference rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 7-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami O to cover

Georgia is off a huge win vs Tennessee last week by double digits . It was impressive to say the least against an explosive offense. Now in a letdown situation the Dawgs may not start as quickly vs a home side that deserves respect behind the viable arm of Will rogers and company. Note: Miss State HC Mike Leach has cashed 17 of 23 times in his career vs undefeated opposition. Georgia won 31- 24 at home last season in this series, failing to cover as -26.5 chalk and with a limited swing on this line, taking points with the home dog is not as far fetched as some pundits might suggest. Mississippi State has covered 2 of the L/3 meetings at home in this series.Georgia  are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.

Miss State are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

Alabama enters this game vs Ole Miss in very cranky mood , after falling flat on their faces and getting upset SU vs LSU last time out. You can bet life was miserable in practice this week for the Crimson Tide, and now  this massive group of 4 and 5 star athletes will be ready to get redemption and what could easily be a merciless Alabama explosion. 

Saban is 13-0 SU in his career vs sides with a better record and 27-2 vs former assistants. 

ALABAMA is 16-6 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 20 ppg. 

ALABAMA is 10-2 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 30 ppg. 

CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OLE MISS) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Alabama to cover

After a slow start Louisville has gone 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 tilts and are in a upward momentum drive and now deserve respect here vs a over rated Tigers side that lost last time out to Notre Dame by DDs a a fav.  Note: CLEMSON is 1-9 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite since 1992.

CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-8 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Louisville to cover 

Western Kentucky football program has had a long history of over powering performances late in the season. In week 11 games they are a perfect 13-0 L/13 opportunities and 9-0 SU/ATS L/9 chances. Im betting on another explosive effort here vs a Rice side that has a tendency to fall asleep at the proverbial  wheel like their ugly 56-23 upset loss to Charlotte at home as 15 point favs a couple of weeks ago. Western Kentucky smashed Charlotte last week 59-7 and  beat Rice last season by a 42-21 count. Rinse and repeat on board. 

Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Hilltoppers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (RICE) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 34-67 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Western Kentucky to cover

JMU (5-3, 3-2) spent a week in the Top 25 after winning its first five games, including an upset of Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina. But JMU has lost three games in a row since as has ODU . While, the Dukes are not going to Bowl or allowed to be a championship side because of this being their first season in the FBS, they may not be as inclined to fight it out like a do or die situation. Meanwhile, the Monarchs are   still in the hunt for a bowl bid, and need 3 straight wins to do so and with that said Im betting leave everything on the field today. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (JAMES MADISON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 1-7 this season . 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

Im betting on a huge hangover for the LSU Tigers after upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide  last time out making them vulnerable to being upset here today vs Arkansas side that fell asleep at the wheel last time out and were upset. Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game which was the case in a 21-19 defeat vs under rated Liberty. 

The two most recent meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points . 

 Arkansas is  8-1 ATS as a  underdog of 16 or fewer points. 

Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

 CFB road team (LSU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-52 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas

East Carolina deserves respect here after 3 straight victories vs BYU, UCF, and Memphis. Meanwhile, Cincinnati seems to not playing with alot of motivation and the offense seems much more inconsistent than over the last few seasons, giving credence to me recommending we grab the points with a never say die underdog that plays with passion. Houston is 9-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of E CAROLINA.E CAROLINA is 16-4 ATS L/20 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points .

Play on East Carolina to cover 

Buffalo had a five game win streak abruptly come to an end  vs Ohio last time out. on the road . However, it must be noted that Buffalo is looking to win its fourth road game of the season. A win would make the Bulls bowl eligible for the seventh time in program history and the fifth time in the last six seasons so they will be very motivated and ready for a bounce back effort.

Key projected difference maker: Buffalo has forced 19 turnovers on the season.  The Bulls' lead the MAC with a +7 turnover margin. Add to that Bulls defense has been positively aggressive this season  scoring  a defensive touchdown in three of the last four games. 

BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992BUFFALO is 14-3 ATS  after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.

Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.

CFB road team (BUFFALO) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-3 L/30 seasons for a 89% conversion rate!

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

The Battle of the Bricks goes tonight as up-trending Ohio takes on Miami Ohio in Oxford tonight. Im betting- Ohio has surprised alot of ppl this season behind a offense thats piling up top tier numbers. It must be noted that rhe Redhawks have one of the best defenses in the conference. Miami ranks first in scoring defense (21.4), second in total defense (348.0), first in rush defense (107.8), third in sacks (23) and third in interceptions (7). Miami's rush defense ranks 18th nationally.  In five conference games the RedHawks are allowing 18.0 points per contest and have allowed just 10 touchdowns all MAC season.-- In conference play, opponents have reached the re zone 16 times, but have come away with touchdowns just 50% of the time.

Meanwhile, Ohio is ranked 124th in tackling and 123rd in coverage.Thats important because Im betting on QB  Gabbert  who has won 11 of his 12 career starts in Oxford to keep up with Rourke and company and get us to the promised land with either a cover or a SU upset victory.

Projected key difference maker: In his first year with the football program, Graham Nicholson has not disappoin ted  . He finished the season 15-20 on field goals, including 6-of-7 on attempts between 40-49 yards. He added 30 touchbacks on 65 kickoffs in 2021. He is 13-for-16 on field goals in 2022. He also had his first game-winning field goal, connecting on a 36-yard field goal with 21 seconds to go in the 17-14 win at Northwestern.

The RedHawks are 32-15-2 at home vs. Ohio, including a 30-28 victory in 2018 in the Bobcats' last visit.

OHIO U is 4-15 ATS L/19 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) 

MIAMI OHIO is 32-15 ATS ( L/47 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%)MIAMI OHIO is 21-8 ATS   off a double digit road win since 1992. which was the case last time out. Martin is 13-4 ATS  as a home underdog as the coach of MIAMI OHIO.

Play on Miami O to cover

Cincinnati lost last week to UCF and now are in a emotional letdown spot and vulnerable to starting slow despite of being in bounce back mode. Since last seasons play off run the Bearcats own a 1-6-1 ATS mark. 

NAVY is 7-0 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 9-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 8-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Niumatalolo is 6-0 ATS  as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as the coach of NAVY. Niumatalolo is 15-4 ATS  off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of NAVY.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36 or better  minutes) are 55-16 SATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on Navy to cover

These two teams are operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with Illinois getting national accolades, while Michigan state seems completely lost. However, for today at least Im betting on Michigan state finding a way to be competitive. After a huge passing game last week vs Nebraska (91% completion rate)-- Illinois Im betting regresses especially after having to endure a emotional letdown after playing in type of stadium that can sap your energy. Michigan State needs wins badly to get a Bowl invite, so Im betting they leave everything on the field today. 

ILLINOIS is 2-10 ATS  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att.  ILLINOIS is 2-13 ATS  in a home game where the total is 42 or less since 1992.

ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Both these sides Tennessee and Georgia  are explosive offensively but the difference maker comes via the Dawgs far superior D.  The Dawgs are 10 ppg and 131 yards better on defense than the Volunteers.  Georgia ranks 1st in red zone offense, and No.2 in Red Zone defense. Meanwhile, the Vols are ranked 82nd in the nation in overall D. Note:  Dawgs HC  Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU covering 31 times  as a favorite of less than 20 points,  and has won 8 straight games against  undefeated foes.

CFB road team (TENNESSEE) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. are 48-19 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover 

 The UCF Knights are strong team especially when playing at home but have yet to notch a victory on the road in the American Athletic Conference this season and have not grabbed a  win in Memphis since 2018 season. Im betting UCF will find it hard again to find a way to win here this week on the highway, vs a  Memphis side that 11-0 coming off an open date going back 8 seasons and 3-0 under Silverfield. key here will be the tigers discipline Note: Memphis ranks sixth for fewest penalties in FBS football and are averaging just  4.25 penalties per game. 

Memphis is also 7-0 ATS as a home dog since 2016.

MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS  off 2 consecutive road lossesMEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS  in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season since 1992.MEMPHIS is 25-12 ATS  in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game .

MEMPHIS is 6-1 against the spread versus UCF since 1992 at home. 

Play on Memphis to cover

 Baylor is 6-1-1 ATS as Big 12 away pups  and are viable dogs in this spot based on their overall body of work during this campaign as compared to the Sooners inconsistent displays. 

BAYLOR is 7-0 ATS  in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference underdog against an opponent coming off a SU/ATS win.

BAYLOR is 46-27 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and  are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in November.Bears are 47-23 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Sooners are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Sooners are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Oklahoma is  0-5 ATS at home against  a side likr BU coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories.

Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oklahoma.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CFB home team (OKLAHOMA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 18-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate.

Play on Baylor to cover 

TCU is red hot entering this game winning 8 straight and still undefeated,  ranking 3rd in the nation in Scoring Offense, averaging 44.3 PPG.and go against a Texas Tech side that was blasted vs Baylor last week and looking emotional and physically drained after taking on quality opponents in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. 

CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 9-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TCU to cover 

Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point pups on the road  at Iowa last season  and now the Hawkeyes have revenge on board. I know both sides have played at the proverbial opposite end of performance spectrum , but Iowa showed some offensive uptick last week in a victory, and with a solid defensive group on the field ranking 5th overall on D Im betting they can make a game out of this and possibly get SU playback. IOWA is 6-0 ATS  in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Hawkeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Road team is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 60-26 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on Iowa to cover 

Wow what an ugly outing for the Boston College last time out, losing 13-3 as 8-point road favorite vs UConn which drops their ATS record vs FBS sides this season to 1-6 ATS.  With that said, Im betting on another ugly outing for the Golden Eagles this week vs a Duke side that has registered 35 and 45 points in back to back games . With BC  averaging  17.3 PPG  on offense this season I highly doubt they can keep up here tonight and as the game progresses should find themselves down by DDs. 

Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Blue Devils are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf. Blue Devils are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Eagles are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CFB road team (DUKE) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 63-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on Duke to cover 

Coastal Carolina are home dogs tonight where they deserve respect as is evident by a  17-2 SU in their last 19 overall , including 6-0 SU in revenge, and 2-0 SU/ATS as a underdog. Coastal Carolina lost in OT last season 30-27 in Boone and with big time revenge on board you can bet the home side will be fully awake and ready to perform. 

Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win which w the case last time out. 

Chadwell is 6-0 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of COASTAL CAROLINA.

APPALACHIAN ST is 0-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

 CFB home team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - off a double digit road win, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 62-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

Both these offenses are less than explosive, but overall according to my data and power rankings projections the difference maker will come via Western Michigan superior red zone  defense   where they rank  top-30 in opponent conversion rate. Last time out the Broncos was suffocating allowing Miami just 10 points in a win and smashed and grabbed their way to 7 sacks.  Note:The Broncos have seen a decrease in their FBS opponent rushing yards in each of the last four games since giving up a season-high 238 to Pittsburgh and  Im betting the ground the lanes will once again be shut down forcing Bowling Green to the air making them alot more one dimensional and readable. Advantage Western Michigan. 

Falcons are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.

 Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.

Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

The Bruins (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) were defeated by  Oregon 45-30 last week at Autzen Stadium Note:The Bruins are 3-6 SU/ATS coming off their first loss of the season. . That was a deflating loss for the Bruins and Im betting they are drained emotionally here and may come out a little flat.

Meanwhile, Ssnce giving up 40 or more  points in each of its first three Pac-12 tilts, the Stanfords defense has really picked up on their tenacity and has now permitted  its last  three  opponents to score  56 combined points and have won two straight games. Note: Cardinal HC David Shaw is  16-4 SU and 16-3  ATS when coming off two wins exact. 

Shaw is 20-10 ATS  in road games in games played on a grass field as the coach of STANFORD.

Stanford owns a 12 -2 SU record  last 14 games in this series,  covering 11 of those games. 

Play on Stanford to cover

Last week South Alabama struggled to score and lost 10-6 to the Troy Trojans and a very physical game. Now in a letdown spot and physically/ emotionally drained Im betting they will have a hard time getting up off the matt in a tilt vs Arkansas State this Saturday. With formerly banged up QB James Blackman expected back in the llineup this week for the Red Wolves Im betting they will be competitive.  S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS  off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

 The SMU Mustangs D is not looking good this season  allowing 453 YPG vs FBS opposition  and  have been shredded  against ground attacks  as their No. 120th ranking trying to stop the run would indicate. With that said, Im betting on Tulsa RB Deneric Prince who enters this game   off a career-best 231 yards performance last week to be a major catalyst in a Tulsa cover and possible outright win this week. 

TULSA is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons.TULSA is 9-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). SMU is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). 

CFB road team vs. the money line (SMU) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440  or more YPG) after 7+ games, after being out-gained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 4-34 SU L/30 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on Tulsa to cover 

This is not a strong version of the North Texas football program taking to the field today against Western Kentucky especially from a defensive standpoint as is evident by allowing an average of 476.1 ppg and 34.5 ppg. I know the Mean Green are 3-1 in CUSA action but like I said having a Swiss cheese D is not optimal. going forward -or here today, for that matter.   Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is looking very strong after finding a way past UAB last week, and now sporting a 3-1 record in CUSA action while allowing just 19.5 ppg at home this season and can alos light it up offensively averaging 39.5 ppg at home. The only real weakness that the Hilltoppers have displayed is a lack of discipline, but Littrell is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of NORTH TEXAS.

NORTH TEXAS is 7-21 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play with the average ppg diff clicking in at -24.7.

Note:N.Texas is 2-23-1 ATS record in conference tilts  when they loss SU which the lines-makers believe will happen as do I. 

CFB road team (NORTH TEXAS) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more  PPG) after 7 or more games, after a loss by 6 or less points and 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover