This one goes like this , Tulane owns a  shaky run D , and it  did not do well vs good run teams last season. Things don't look to get much better this season, and Wake Forest will take advantage of this and pound the ball on the ground mercilessly  right out of the gate, behind 5 retuning starters and than as tilt progresses use the option to do further damage through the air.  Yes even with Sam Hartman taking snaps, thanks to his ability to hit WR Greg Dorch who can also explode when playing on special teams, especially vs a revamped Tulane secondary. Willie Fritz and company have their hands full with a under rated and explosive Wake Forest football program today . With that said lay the points with the Demon Deacons on the road. 

TULANE is 2-11 ATS  against ACC opponents since 1992. ACC 40.8 Tulane 13.1

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

After watching Georgia shoot it out  with Oklahoma and win in OT it became obvious to me that this team, is really special, and  can both play top tier defense and show case an explosive offense, which makes them extremely dangerous on both sides of the ball , and a bad matchup for Alabama .  Meanwhile, Alabama despite of their over powering performance vs Clemson, still  played a game in their comfort zone behind their trade mark defense , and methodical offense. It was how Saban and company have won games for a long time now.  I also  know the public has now piled all back onto the Tides bandwagon, but I'm betting   Nick Saban's domination of college football could easily come  to end today and could begin a down trend for Alabama football. Yes, this is definitely a contrarian view point,as I  refuse to stay inside the box by  following the mainstream medias viewpoint and instead look at all possible indicators and factors.   Its hard betting against the Tide, but I am very impressed with Georgia's ability to play two way football, something Saban's side does not look capable of doing in their current form. It will be Georgia's superior  offensive abilities  that will be the difference maker here today.

GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5or less  yards per return. Bulldogs HC Smart is 7-0 ATS  L/7 in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (GEORGIA) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover

CITRUS BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL


Notre Dame and their top tier coach Brian Kelly put together a fine group on the field this campaign , and overall they played incredible ball for 90% of this season and looked like play off contenders . Playing at such a high level against what was some very strong competition this season , finally saw them slip towards the end against Miami fl and Stanford, suffering stagnant losses. It must be noted that the Catholic boys faced the toughest schedule of all bowl teams this season and must be respected here against a average SEC team in LSU. Yes, I know HC Orgeron is liked by his players, and finished strong, but I cannot over look the ugly effort they had against Troy at home this season, and consistent lapses in this teams abiity to be motivated. It must also be noted that new Hcs in Bowl games as favorites of less than 4 points are just 6-15 ATS L/21.

I really believe this is a coaching mismatch, and I'm betting after a month off Notre Dame will be ready to roll again. Kelly is 25-12 ATS in his career when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) .

Play on Notre Dame to cover

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami, FL

Miami fl after a strong season finished off their campaign with a couple of down performances vs  Pittsburgh followed by a ACC Championship loss vs defending national champion Clemson . This was a Miami Fl side that was talked about as a national contender and missed the play offs by one game. Remember the Canes were also undefeated before those two above mentioned losses and in no way should be disrespected here vs Wisconsin. Miami I'm betting will do just fine vs a Badgers side that despite of being a defensive juggernaut have problems vs top tier secondary's ranking 112 in intercepted passes . Note: Hurricanes had 15 interceptions this season.

ACC Bowl underdogs are 10-0-1 ATS l/11 against Big 10 opposition  .

CFB road team vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 3-29 SU L/25 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors  losing by an average of 17.8 ppg.

Play on  Miami Fl  to cover

TAXSLAYER BOWL - Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Mississippi State defense enters this game vs Louisville very under rated. This season the Bulldogs went against some explosive offenses in SEC play so facing ,Louisville's top tier offense will not be an issue. Miss State looked very strong against the pass, ( 302 total yards per game), ranking 10th in the nation and allowed opposing run games to average just 127 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs proved their defensive ferociousness in a close 31-24 loss to number one ranked Alabama.. Meanwhile, Louisville despite of being offensively explosive are well below average defensively, as was evident when they allowed 41 points to Clemson, and 42 points to Wake Forest and more than one defensive lapse against average offenses during their less than memorable campaign. Today against a Mississippi State team that can control the clock with a vaunted running game and a versatile QB under center ( Nick Fitzgerald) I'm betting the Bulldogs have a very viable opponent . Also look for Louisville and their super star under center LaMar Jackson to struggle at key junctures of this game and fail to cover the number.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-3 ATS L/18 after playing a game at home .Petrino is 5-15 ATS L/20 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers .
against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 41-74 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mississippi State to cover

 CAMPING WORLD BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Virginia Tech finished their season by shutting out long time rivals Virginia in their final game of the season by a 10-0 count. VTech defense was phenomenal this season allowing an average of just 13.5 ppg. They should also be a handful for a an explosive Oklahoma St offense here today. Meanwhile, on the flipside, the Cowboys D, is porous, allowing 30.1 ppg on the season. What I;m betting will happen is that VTech will score with consistency today, while Oklahoma State will stall on key drives, which will be the difference maker. 

Gundy is 5-13 ATS L/18 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.
Fuente is 9-0 ATS L/9 when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games. and is  10-1 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.

OKLAHOMA ST is 6-19 ATS L/25  vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game .

Play on VTech to cover

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Missouri ended their season as one of the hottest teams in the nation winning 6 straight. Meanwhile, Texas after a disastrous start to their season, getting pummelled by Maryland in their opener, in front of  their own embarrassed fans , picked  things up as the season progressed and looked like a viable opponent by the end of their campaign.

Missouri is an explosive offensive team, but their defense is atrocious, ranking 122 in red zone defense. Today I expect top tier HC tom Herman who is 9-1 ATS as a dog , to be well prepared for the Tigers attack after a 1 month preparation time, and for his own capable offense to smash and grab a cover for us here today against a group of pylons.

TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att.

Play on Texas  to cover

FOSTER FARMS BOWL - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Rich Rodriguez's Arizona started their season strong ,but ended their campaign on a down note losing 3 of their L/4 games and on the season the defense was a big concern as they surrendered 40 or more points in 5 of their 9 games. Meanwhile, their opponents today Purdue , went 6-6 on the seasons and notched 4 conference victories and are being under rated here by the lines-makers. The Boilermakers HC Jeff Brohm is a major planner and motivator and has a perfect 3-0 record in Bowl games and gets my support here today.

Big 10 teams are 10-4-1 ATS vs PAC 12 Bowl opponents. Arizona's HC Rich Rod is 3-23 ATS vs Big 10 opposition.

ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.Rodriguez is 2-13 ATS L/15  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.

Play on Purdue to cover

QUICK LANE BOWL - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

A lot has been made about how Northern Illinois beat Nebraska earlier this season, but the truth is the Corn huskers were not that good  . Also a lot of pundits also seem to like to point out how well this blue collar Huskies program , has played on the road over the years winning 37 of 51 games, but fail to point out that NIU are  2-10 ATS  L/12 as a neutral field underdog, and how they have crashed and burned in 4 straight Bowl outings, and last year look like they made a ghost appearance by not showing up in a 55-7 blasting at the hands of Boise State.  Now they go against  a viable ACC team, that have a huge front 7 that can slow down a average Huskies offensive attack. Also from a turnover perspective it must be noted that NIU were on the negative end of the turnover battle in 6 of their L/9 games, which is not a good omen vs a Duke team that protects the ball well, and better at forcing turnovers. I know 9 of the 10 Quick Lane games have been decided by TD points or less and this one might end up like that to , but it will be Duke that gets the cover as my number makes them 6.5 to 7 point chalk thus giving us value on this line.

DUKE is 21-8 ATS  L/29 in games played on turf and their current HC Cutcliffe is 15-3 ATS  in games played on turf with the average margin of victory coming by 6.6 points per game.

Play on Duke to cover

HAWAII BOWL - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI

Fresno State is a fine football team, and have been a cash cow for their betting backers this season, when playing as dogs going 6-0 ATS.  With Houston losing Tom Herman to Texas this past season, they were  not as dangerous, with a 100 yard difference on defense. The Cougars are weak favorites here vs a side that my own rankings suggest is the superior side.

FRESNO ST is 8-0 ATS  L/8 when playing against a team with a winning record. FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS    off a road loss which happened against Boise State (17-14).Bulldogs are 11-1 L/12 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Favorites in this Bowl game just 2-8 ATS L/10.

Play on Fresno State to cover

These teams battled it out last season in bowl competition, with App State taking a 31-28 thriller. now in the rematch I'm expecting another close confrontation.

The matchup showcases a explosive Toledo offense,  and a team that went 11-2 on the season. Meanwhile, Appalachian State lost four games this season,   but  three of its four defeats in 2017 came  by seven points or less, including a one-point defeat to what has suddenly  become a potent  Wake Forest side. The only other loss for the Mountaineers was a 31-10 loss at Georgia in the opener , which is a play off team for a national championship.

Tonight I expect App State to counter Toledos big time attack, by pounding the ball on the ground and controlling time of possession. The Mountaineers averaged around 31 minutes in time of possession this year and will be the catalyst for them getting us the cover here tonight.

Sun Belt teams have won 4 of the L/5 Dollar General Bowl games

Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game. 26-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on App state to cover

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

These two solid rushing teams and defenses will go head today in a game that I'm betting will be fairly low scoring and tightly contested. Army has dealt well with ground heavy attacks this season, beating both Air force and Navy, and facing RB Rashaad Penny and company will not be a difficult for them. Meanwhile, look for Army's multi faceted rushing offense, that averaged 335 ypg, to do more than enough damage to keep them competitive and possibly pull off the upset. It must be noted that Military bowl teams are 22-4 ATS L/26 vs .600 or better opposition.

This  is Army's seventh all-time bowl appearance. Army is 4-2 in previous post season games, and those six  appearances have been decided by a total of 19 points  and  all by a touchdown or less and I'm expecting a rinse and repeat situation here in this game.

HC Rocky Long of SD St is has lost  7 of his 11 Bowl Games.

Aztecs are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Aztecs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. INDEP.Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

Play on Army to cover

.

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL - Albertons Stadium - Boise, ID

Central Michigan is a very under rated team, that has beaten the likes of Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois this season and been extremely competitive all season and can move the ball in key situations. They have won four straight and enter this tilt with momentum. Meanwhile, QB Josh Allen and Wyoming , have experienced a disappointing season an inability to move the ball, and the future NFL draft pick is banged up with a sore shoulder for this game which will not help his teams cause. Both teams force their opponents to make mistakes and get turnovers, so their even there. The difference maker I'm betting comes via Central Michigan's ability to score with more frequency than Wyoming. I know the Cowboys have shown some decent defense this season, but Northern Illinois also is tough defensively and Central Michigan found a way to beat them, and I'm betting on a similar effort here from Chippewa's vs a Wyoming side that I have ranked below 3 other MAC teams .

C MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS in road games when they are outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards something I'm projecting will happen.


CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WYOMING) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are just 8-27 L/10 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Central Michigan to cover

Florida International is a team that currently ranks/ rates fairly high on my own power ranking charts for smaller conference football programs. Meanwhile, Temple in my humble opinion gets way to much respect based on past seasons, under a different head coach. This season , the Owls have shown flashes of their previous brilliant efforts dating back a couple of seasons, but make no mistake that this team is no longer as good as the linesmakers and many pundits might have you believe. Fl Inters HC Davis, who also had head coaching stints at North Carolina and the Cleveland Browns in addition to his time at Miami, has a veteran at quarterback in senior Alex McGough, whom he calls "one of the best quarterbacks that I've been around at all levels of coaching."
McGough has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 2,791 yards and 17 touchdowns against only eight interceptions and I'm betting he will be a key catalyst in FIU covering here tonight.

HC Butch Davis was 6-0 against the Owls in his time at Miami.


Florida Inter - HC Davis is 16-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game and is 7-0 ATS L/7 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game in all games .( FIU beat Umass 63-45 in their finale in outrushed them 379 to 156. )

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 32-9 ATS L/25 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game are 25-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida International to cover

CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Middle Tenn State enters this bowl game having failed to cover 4 straight bowl appearances and I'm betting on another loss here vs Arkansas State this week . I know a lot has been made of how Middle Tennessee State had to endure playing without injured QB Brent Stockstill the son of the Blue Raiders coach, but the truth is with or without him in the line this  MTSU is just plain over rated and according to my numbers in over their head vs Red Wolves team that out gained their final 7 opponents of the season. . Meanwhile, Arkansas State boasts an explosive QB Justice Hansen who averages 330 ypg, and has converted 34 TDs this season and the team as whole averages more than 2 TDs a game more than their opponents tonight. I waited to get -3 and a few books have made it available so, I have decided to pull the trigger.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-10 ATS L/11 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and is   9-22 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games.

Play on Arkansas State to cover

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

The Marshall Thundering herd enter Bowl action with an established college football pedigree that must be respected. Marshall is 10-1 SU ATS in their L/11 Bowl games, and are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS vs .580 or better opposition like Colorado State. Meanwhile, Colorado State since beating up on Oregon State have been a disappointment this season, and are currently on a 0-6 ATS run.

CUSA Bowl teams are very successful of late winning 22 of their L/33 SU since 2011.

Holliday is 9-1 ATS L/10  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest .

Play on Marshall to cover
 

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Superdome - New Orleans, LA

North Texas enters this game as TD underdog vs the Sun Belt champion Troy. However, it must be noted that UNT is 9-0 SU all time vs Sun Belt sides when they own a .500 record or better , and Troy is just 2-7 ATS /0-4 ATS L/4 as favs vs CUSA opposition and have failed to cover 3 of 4 as Bowl favorites. I know the Mean Green looked horrid in their championship tilt vs Florida Atlantic , but the good news is that CUSA Bowl teams are 13-2 ATS off a loss. Note: Conference USA sides  like N.Texas in Bowl Games over the L/6 seasons are 22-11 SU. I also noticed Troy looked wiped at the end of the season and despite of beating Arkansas State in their last game were actually out gained by more than 300 yards.

NORTH TEXAS is 10-2 ATS  L/12 in road games after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points.

Play on North Texas to cover

Navy after a fast start to their campaign had the wheels fall of their proverbial wagon going down the stretch as is evident by  losing, 5 of their L/6 games. Meanwhile, Army has really shown me alot this season and are one of the best groups the Cadets have had on the field in a long time. The Cadets shut out the other military academy Air Force this season, and have had this game circled on their calendars for a long time. I'm not sure they will win this game, but one thing I'm betting on is that  nothing will come easy for Navy in their current form, which gives a very motivated Army side the edge taking points. The last two games in this series were decided by identical 21-17 scores, with Army covering both times.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Neutral field underdogs (ARMY) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 22-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover

No. 5 Wisconsin and No. 9 Ohio State are not only playing for the conference title again this Saturday, but both programs have a opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. Needless to say this game I'm betting will be a hard fought grueling event that will see getting points as a golden opportunity. With Ohio State QB JT Barrett at less than 100% with a knee injury , I expect his team will be at a disadvantage. I know their are skeptics out there that think Wisconsin played a weak schedule this season, but going undefeated is not an easy feat and the Badgers deserve respect. With that said, look for the catalyst of a Wisconsin cover and possible upset to come from , RB Jonathan Taylor, who has run behind a massive offensive line for 1,806 yards and leads the Big Ten in rushing vs a Ohio State side that has shown many defensive deficiencies during this current campaign. note: Wisconsin also leads the Big Ten in fewest rushing yards (80.5), total yards (236.9) and points (12.0) allowed per game.

OHIO ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.WISCONSIN is 7-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games ,

The underdog has won 4 of the L/6 Big 10 Championship games SU since its inception in 2011, and covered all 6 times.


CFB team (WISCONSIN) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a good defense (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Bank of American Stadium - Charlotte, NC

Miami after a great season, looked a little tired emotionally in a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile Clemson, hammered South Carolina , solidifying their chances among the pundits at a repeat College play off appearance. However, it must be noted that .800 or better teams off a chalk loss and than going to a conference championship game are 8-0 SU and 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs. With that said, what 'm betting happened to Miami Fl last week, was that they were in a look ahead situation, and completely overlooked their opponent .  Now wide awake and ready to compete, I'm betting they give Clemson a run for their money.  It must also be noted that national champs are 0-4 ATS L/4 in conference tilts if they are favs of 14 points or less. Add to that Mark Richts Miami program has only 1 previous loss by more than 7 points.

CLEMSON is 12-25 ATS  L/37 after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins .

Play on the Miami Fl to cover

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Bank of American Stadium - Charlotte, NC

Miami after a great season, looked a little tired emotionally in a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile Clemson, hammered South Carolina , solidifying their chances among the pundits at a repeat College play off appearance. However, it must be noted that .800 or better teams off a chalk loss and than going to a conference championship game are 8-0 SU and 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs. With that said, what 'm betting happened to Miami Fl last week, was that they were in a look ahead situation, and completely overlooked their opponent .  Now wide awake and ready to compete, I'm betting they give Clemson a run for their money.  It must also be noted that national champs are 0-4 ATS L/4 in conference tilts if they are favs of 14 points or less. Add to that Mark Richts Miami program has only 1 previous loss by more than 7 points.

CLEMSON is 12-25 ATS  L/37 after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins .

Play on the Miami Fl to cover

This is  a Troy football program (9-2) that took a big fat cheque from LSU earlier this season to play against them in their own back yard. They not only took that money but they took a SU win as DD dogs.So needless to say this Trojans team is not easily intimidated. With the added revenge factor for Troy as they look to get payback for a  ugly loss last year by a 35-3 count, to this same Arkansas State program (7-3), you can bet your bottom dollar we are backing a motivated and talented side on a current 5 game win streak..

TROY is 9-1 ATS  L/10 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games/

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TROY) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover

AAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Spectrum Stadium - Orlando, FL

The difference between Memphis and UCF comes down to defense. Both can score in bunches, but only one of these teams has something that resembles a defense, and that is the Knights. In their head to head meeting on Sept30 all the intangibles were on display ,    as UCF punished the Tigers 40-13 in an easy win. The Knights not only ran up 603 yards of total offense to the 396 of the Tigers, but they came up with four takeaways while giving the ball away only once. While some might think revenge is key here in a possible cover for Memphis, and competitive showing or upset, it must also be noted that revenge minded sides, in conference championship tilts are 0-6 SU L/6 when taking on a .916 or better opponent while failing to cover 5 of 6 times. The host in this series is 6-0 ATS L/6 , and I'm betting on the 7th straight cover today and UCF is a perfect 10-0 L/10 SU in this series and have covered 5 straight at home vs Memphis.

Play on UCF to cover 1 unit reg selection

PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levis Stadium - Santa Clara, AZ

Stanford according to my own data and power rankings have gotten better as this season, has progressed, and are better prepared for a USC team that handily beat them in their first meeting this season in week 2 action. the Cardinal have only lost one game by more than 3 points in their L/18 games overall, and the above mentioned tilt was it.

More recently the Cardinal proved their prowess with a 38-20 win vs a very good Notre Dame Irish side at the Farm last week. Meanwhile, USC rested and prepared for this tilt. However, it must be noted that rested sides in conference championship tilts are just 3-8 ATS L/11 vs a side looking for revenge.

On the season, the Trojans are averaging only 2.5 ppg more than the Cardinal , and from a  cross reference power ranking standpoint are dead even with their underdog foes, making Stanford a viable side to back.

The Cardinal HC Shaw is 9-0 SU L/14 when getting points . Cardinal are also 7-0 SU/ATS in conference championship game after winning PAC12 North. USC is 2-8 ATS L/10 Neutral site games.USC is 1-8 ATS L/9 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better.)STANFORD is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  450 yards/game or more.STANFORD is 31-8 ATS  after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better, which happened vs the Irish last week.

Play on Stanford to cover 

LSU showed me their vulnerabilities when they lost to Troy on Sept. 30 to fall to 3-2 on the season. I know they have played much better of late, but I'm still not sold on HC Ed Orgeron and company . Meanwhile, Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat and really needs a win and a competitive showing here today. QUOTE: "I came here to Texas A&M to win football games," Sumlin said. "What we do and how we've done it has been the right way. It will continue to be the right way."END QUOTE. He is a quality coach and top tier recruiter, and I respect his abilities a lot, and I'm betting he has the Aggies ready to compete tonight vs a opponent that despite of a recent 5-0 ATS run is just 4 -16 ATS at home as a favorite off a win.

LSU is 2-10 ATS  L/12  in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins .

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas A&M - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 67-31 ATS  L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas A&M to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last season Oregon State took out Oregon by a 34-24 count in their last game of the season, which resulted on the Ducks not getting a bowl bid.  It was ugly, and the boosters were in a nasty mood. Now with redemption at hand, and the no mercy rule, thrown out, I expect the Ducks to come out here looking to annihilate their opponent. When their top tier QB Justin Herbert has been under center this season the Ducks average around 48 points per game in offense, as was the case last week in a beat down of  pretty good looking Arizona side by a 48-28 count.  I expect at least that many points today for Oregon in a complete game one sided victory vs the beavers 118 ranked D, that is allowing 466 YPG.

OREGON ST is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in road games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game  losing SU by an average of 28.6 ppg.

Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection

Georgia Southern after being completely asleep at the proverbial wheel, all season long, finally woke up last week, and decided to go on a rampage by destroying South Alabama by a 52-0 count as underdogs. Now behind a revived running game that averaged 5.4 ypg last week,  I expect they use the momentum of that win to come out and take down another opponent. Needless to say , interim HC Chad Lundsford ability to wake these kids from their naps, makes me  feel confident they can answer the bell again vs a UL Lafayette football program that has been highly inconsistent this season and just 2-2 in their L/4 overall. With that said,  I'm recommending we take the points . Note: UL Lafayette is just 3-13 ATS L/16 as home favorites.

By the way I know the Georgia Southern D, has been porous at times this season, but LA LAFAYETTE is just  3-13 ATS  L/16   in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing  6.25 or more  yards/play  and 7-18 ATS  L/25  in home games when playing against a lower tier team with a win % of .250 or less.

LA LAFAYETTE is 1-11 ATS  L/12  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2.

CFB  Road underdogs like Georgia Southern  - with a lower tier defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 80-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover

In between some ugly performances Rutgers has actually played some decent ball this season, and from time to time have looked competitive as wins vs Purdue, Illinois, and Maryland would suggest. Meanwhile, their visiting opponents the  Spartans are not the type of team that crushes their opponents, against even those sides that have looked inferior , and  have no wins of 10 points or more in conference play this season. I'm betting Rutgers elevates their game looking for an upset and DAntonio and company do what they do best, grind out a slow sleepy win.  With that said ,I'm recommending we take the points.

MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). MICHIGAN ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8 as a road favorite .MICHIGAN ST is 4-15 ATS  L/19  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB home team vs. the money line like RUTGERS - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 29-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Rutgers - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rutgers to cover 1 unit reg selection

It must be noted that this Alabama group is banged up right now with key defensive deficiencies. Yes, the Tide are deep and another 5 star recruit takes over for the injured player, but theirs a reason why  one guy got the start over the other guy.  Needless to say, as was the case last week against Mississippi State , the Tide, are currently short handed, and their offense is still not as fluid as it needs to be and must add they are not unbeatable. Despite of my great respect for the Tide, the Auburn football program they play today, are hitting their stride, and looking very much like  a contender for the National Championship. Since their early season hard fought loss to Clemson, the offense has jelled ,  and comes in on a roll, scoring 40 points or more in seven of its last eight games.The Auburn defensive front has also been amazing,  and are run stoppers extroidnare – as was the case vs Georgia ( 46 yards) and have not allowed 200  rushing yards on the year – and their secondary is equally brilliant as was evident against stud QB Nick Fitzgerald and the Mississippi State as they held him  under a  35% completion rate. In a tilt that could mark a changing in the guard in the SEC , I'm betting Auburn gets us the cover, and are a strong candidate to do the unthinkable , get the outright upset vs Alabama. This game has the feel of a late FG decision, making getting points with Auburn a viable investment option.

AUBURN is 14-1 ATS  L/15  in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and 10-1 ATS  L/11  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.

Nick Saban in his history as a coach has never beaten a .750 or better Auburn squad going 0-4 SU lifetime.

CFB home underdogs like Auburn  that have scored 40 or more points in each of their L/3 tilts, and facing a team off a win by 3 or more points are a bankroll expanding 20-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like AUBURN - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 25-6 for a 81% conversion rate dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the Auburn Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both starting  QBs for Boston College and their hosts Syracuse are expected to miss todays game. Boston without  QB Anthony Brown have proven over an over again,  that without him under center , moving the ball is like moving a 2000lb rock, which I'm betting will be their downfall today. Add to that Boston College already has a Bowl game locked up, and probably looking ahead to greener pastures , and you have a situation where the home dog will be motivated to prove they are better than some of their recent results suggest and finish off their season on a high note in front of their own alumni. Note: With Dungey out a QB for the Orange , they will concentrate on pounding the ball on the ground, and with that said,  it must be noted that BC has allowed 5 ypc, this season and are vulnerable via the opposing ground game.

BC has covered on 5 of their L/21 as a road fav vs a team off consecutive losses.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Syracuse - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. ( Louisville clobbered Syracuse 56-10 last time out) .\

Play on Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection

HC Mike Riley is most likely on the way out of the door at Nebraska. However, the old ball coach has a little something left in his proverbial tank, and I'm betting he motivates his downtrodden team to a cover here at home, vs a Iowa football program, that looks to be living on their laurels of a recent upset win vs Ohio State. Since that monumental win the Hawkeyes have lost two straight and have been outscored by a combined 62-29 count. I know Nebraska has also lost two straight but in the past have proven resilient from a ATS standpoint cashing 13 of his L/14 after consecutive losses.

NEBRASKA is 29-9 ATS  L/38 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.NEBRASKA is 15-3 ATS L/18 after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game.NEBRASKA is 21-8 ATS  L/29 after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game. ( Last week the Cornhuskers lost 55-44 to Penn State)

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection

South Florida (9-1)  and UCF (10-0) according to my own power rankings and cross reference matchup systems  are very evenly matched and  the point spread should be much closer to  a one possession spread . With the pressure of staying undefeated a deterrent for UCF, this situation  also offers up an opportunity for a strong dog to pull off what would not be a surprising upset. South Florida has conclusively beaten UCF in their L/2 meetings, and today I'm betting they get us the cover on a bloated line again.

My own projections estimate that S.Florida will score between 22-28 points which is a good omen , considering the Bulls are 16-4 ATS L/20  in road games when they score 22 to 28 points.

CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 87-37 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

South Florida to cover 1 unit reg selection

Nevada owns a 2-8 record on the season, thanks in part to what must be considered an atrocious defense, especially on the road where they have allowed an average of 40.4 ppg.  The Wolfpacks only saving grace has been a sometimes explosive offense, but today against a very strong San Diego State D, allowing an average of just 18.8 ppg their in big trouble vs a team that is 18-0 SU and   12-1 ATS L/13 when playing against a team with a losing record , with he average score clicking in at SD St 37.4 opposition 8.5.  Add to that Rocky Longs, great late season runs of late that have seen him go 9-0 SU 8-0-1 ATS in his L/4 games of the season when coming off a DD ATS win which happened last time out in a 52-7 ATS blasting of San Jose State. No mercy rule in effect here tonight.

CFB road team vs. the money line like Nevada - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 1-34 SU losing SU by an average of 26.1 ppg.

 CFB  home team vs. the money line like San Diego State - team outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 29-1 SU winning by an average of 24.2 ppg.

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection

No. 19 North Carolina State  wants this game badly and  is on the verge of something special if they can get a 9 win season, stay in the top 25 and garner a big pay day with a top tier Bowl appearance. Needless to say North Carolina State is very motivated entering this tilt against a over rated Wake Forest program that despite of a explosive 64-43  win last week, vs Syracuse still allowed a whopping 621 yards on defense, and in the game before that allowed 710 yards to Notre Dame. I just don't like them today vs a a football program that has owned them of late winning three straight SU/ATS by an average of 22 points per game and are 8-1 L/9 in this series when the Deacons are off a win. I'm also betting on Wake Forest to be in an emotional letdown state , after last week astounding come back win.

WAKE FOREST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Demon Deacons - in a game involving two good rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games are 13-44 ATS for a76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on N.C State to cover 1 unit reg selection

I've kept an eye on Old Dominion , as I have been looking for improvement over the season, and I can see their on a upward trajectory. Last week vs FIU as DD road dogs, they took a 37-30 win in a game they actually dominated despite of the slight 7 point difference. The Monarchs freshman QB  Steven Williams, continues to improve as their starting QB was injured earlier in the season. He had a 168 yards rushing, and 3 TDS in last weeks game, and give Old dominion the edge this week, vs a Rice team that can be best described as futile, allowing 40 or more points in 5 of their L/6 games. Note:OLD DOMINION is 7-0 ATS  L/7 vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game Last year winning SU by an average of 13.7 ppg. the Owls lost to the Monarchs by a 45-42 count as 7 point favorites, and look like weak dogs this week vs a Old Dominion side that is 16-0 SU L/16 as chalk, and 10--1-1 L/12 against the spread.

CFB Road underdogs like Rice - lower tier team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored are 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

After back to back losses to Miami Fl and Georgia Tech I'm sure this Virginia Tech Hokies group feels downtrodden. With really nothing left o play for I cannot see them performing at optimal speed here today giving credence to my recommendation on taking a Pittsburgh team that needs a win badly to get a Bowl invite. In the past no matter which team has been better at the time, it seems the Panthers have found a way to be competitive as their 9-1 ATS and 6-3 SU record in this series would indicate. Overall Pittsburghs been a tough out on the road of late cashing 6 of their L/7 away as dogs, and are 6-2 ATS L/8 as conference dogs of 13 points or more,.

CFB road team like Pittsburgh - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are  95-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors .

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 1 unit reg selection

E.Carolina has struggled for most of this season , thanks to a defense, that has allowed 45 ppg  during their 2017 campaign , and also a  offense that has generated just 23.8 ppg. I know visiting Cincinnati may not inspire bettors but this is a very winnable game for them. The Bearcats have shown life,  and some upward trajectory in games vs Navy, SMU and a recent upset win vs Tulane, and are a viable side to back in this tilt of downtrodden sides. In other words , the lesser of two evils, is the choice here today. ( Lay the FG with the Bearcats)

E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return losing SU by an average of  11.2 ppg.

E CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS  L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and 0-7 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63.E CAROLINA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 against conference opponents and 0-6 ATS  L/6 in November games .E CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS L/9after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Carolina  - after playing a game at home, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 1 unit reg selection

Texas since their ugly opening loss to Maryland have steadily improved under Tom Herman, and I don't think we have seen them at their very best quite yet and could easily see them in top form today as they need one more win to secure a bowl bid. Meanwhile,  West Virginia already has a bowl game in their December plans,  and may not be as motivated as their opponents. With that said, I'm betting we have an edge vs a W.Virginia side that has  not faired well as home chalk of late vs .500 or above conference  opposition  going 3-11 ATS . Meanwhile, the LongHorns HC Herman is 8-1 ATS L/7 as a underdog lifetime and has covered 11 of his L/13 vs a power 5 football programs and proved their metal in a recent road win vs Iowa State a home win vs KState, and two hard fought close losses to Oklahoma State by 3 points and a 5 point loss to Oklahoma. Note: My own projections tell me Texas will score 22 points or more, which is a good omen, as TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 when they score 22 to 28 points over the last few seasons.

 CFB road team like the Longhorns - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Kentucky does not look like the powerhouse it has been over the last few seasons, but Middle Tennessee State according to my own cross reference power ranking suggest that neither are the Blue raiders. Both sides have identical records . I know that Midd Tenn State has won 2 straight games convincingly , but those were against lowly UTEP and Charlotte. Meanwhile, W.Kentucky played Vanderbilt and Marshall very tough in back to back games, and despite of losing were looking better than the pundits might have you expect. Yes, the Hilltoppers as mentioned above may not be as potent some of their past incarnations, but are very viable home underdogs in this spot and have more than 50% chance of pulling off a straight up win.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-9 ATS  L/10 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins  

W.Kentucky is 6-2 ATS L/8 at home while Midd Tenn State is 1-6 ATS L/7 CUSA road tilts.

W KENTUCKY is 22-8 ATS  L/30 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

Eastern Michigan thanks to a usually staunch D,  has been very competitive all season long, and must not be underestimated as dog this Wednesday night despite of a sub par 3-7 record. Meanwhile, Miami O, despite of a 6-4 record has been very inconsistent this season, as recent losses vs downtrodden Kent State and Bowling Green demonstrates.

HC of E. Michigan Creighton is 8-0 ATS  L/8  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 yards or less per return.E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS L/6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 8-1 ATS L/9 as a road underdog.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami Ohio - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 15-43 ATS the L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on  Eastern Michigan to cover  1 unit reg selection

Oklahoma  now 8-1 on the season showed themselves to be one of the most potent offensive teams in the Big 12 last week and maybe the nation as they went into Stillwater and took a 62-52 shootout affair vs Oklahoma State.  While some teams might tank after an emotional slugfest like that I'm betting instead the Sooners will be motivated to get the win here tonight as they look to make up for a shocking loss to a Iowa State side, that they may have under estimated, back on Oct 7. A victory here for Oklahoma vs a 8-1 TCU program ,that also lost to Iowa State 14-7, will also pad their resume, as both  the Sooners and Horned Frogs must still be considered outside contenders for the national championship play off. Another loss for either team and their dream is over, so this is a must win situation for both sides.  Here  in their own building in front of  what will be a frenzied home crowd I feel the Sooners have the edge.

 By the way folks I respect TCU and their vaunted D a great deal, but theirs an old adage, that goes something like this . Defense wins championships , but  offense win games. Whether you agree or feel this statement is irrelevant  or not.... I still say- Advantage Sooners  via the arm of Baker Mayfield and the nations best offensive line.

OKLAHOMA is 8-1 ATS  L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record , with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 16.3 ppg.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. TCU is 2-11 ATS  L/13 in games played on a grass field, losing by an average of 9.4 ppg.

CFB Home favorites like Oklahoma  - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 45-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like the Sooners - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less), after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 52-17 SU L/25 seasons with the average combined margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg,( 33.4 to 24.7)

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover

Missouri has beaten up on three straight teams, two of them came against lower tier opponents UConn and Idaho, and the last time out against a Florida Gators program that looks like they have given up on their season. Previous to that they lost 4 straight against better programs , like Auburn, Georgia, Purdue, and Kentucky. Meanwhile as bad as Tennessee has been they have been competitive for the most part this season, and matchup well vs a defenseless one way Missouri squad that depends on their offense alone to win games. Only Alabama has put more than 29 points on the board in their L/8 vs the Vols ,a D that is  capable of slowing down Missouri in this spot.  I know old Rocky Top might not inspire bettors this season, but my own numbers and projections  suggest this game is settled by a TD or less making this a viable underdog betting situation.

TENNESSEE is 18-7 ATS  L/25 vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game.

Tennessee is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2  meetings in this series.

Home favorites Missouri - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 108-166 ATS  for a 61% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Tennessee Vols to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kevin Sumlin the HC of Texas A&M is in trouble. His team since their opener against UCLA , when they blew  a huge 34 point  lead, and than lost , has been reeling. It was obvious during the season despite of top tier recruiting, this was a team with little chemistry and focus. That was never more evident than their recent back to back home losses vs Mississippi State and Auburn by DD beat downs. Now the mood is dire to say the least, and these young men  in the Texas A&M football program looked disinterested , which does not bode well for them coming into this non conference game with little meaning attached to it.  I know New Mexico may not inspire many bettors with their recent performances, which includes 11 turnovers in their L/4 games, but they actually matchup well from a ATS perspective vs a side like Texas A&M. I expect the Lobos via a solid ground attack to just be happy eating clock up and here and pounding the rock , which will allow them to stay within the number.  Note:TEXAS A&M is 12-29 ATS  L/41 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more   rushing yards/game.

In the past its not like Sumlin seems to get his team up for lower tier competition and has a history of seeing his team play down to their opponents on a consistent basis ,as this trend will point out. TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse is 1-8 ATS   in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.

TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8 in the second half of the season dating back to last season.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS  L/6off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival .NEW MEXICO is 13-2 ATS  off an upset loss as a home favorite

CFB Home favorites like Texas A&M - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 37-75 ATS for a long term go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.

Play on New Mexico to cover 1 unit reg selection

USC is off two impressive wins vs two over rated Arizona teams in their L/2 trips to gridiron and now the media/pundits and linesmakers are in love with them again. I know their opponents today Colorado have not been that impressive this season with a 5-5 record, but must not be underestimated especially here in their last home game of the season. In the past the Buffs have been a good bet in their last tilt as hosts cashing 10 of their L/11 tickets for their backers . It must also be noted that the Trojans are just 0-10 ATS L/10 on the road as DD chalk against .500 or greater opposition.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like USC- viable team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 20-57 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Auburn (7-2) before this season started was high on my list of sleeper teams to fight for a national championship and nothing has changed my mind. The loss at Clemson earlier this season was a heartbreaker, and the loss vs LSU a shocker because of a lack of focus in the end half. But do not be fooled by those results as  this is an extremely strong Auburn football program at the moment and they had the opportunity to win both those tilts . I know undefeated 9-0 Georgia continues to get a great deal of accolades, and are an extremely competent team with a big win vs top tier Notre Dame , but I will not be surprised if their undefeated streak comes to an abrupt end here this Saturday. Look for a hard fought tilt, that has the feel of an upset written all over it. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here.It’s a great opportunity for Auburn to climb back into the College Football Playoff conversation and expect they will play like their lives depend on it this week.  Take the points.

AUBURN is 13-1 ATS  L/14   in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game  and  is 9-1 ATS  L/10  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Auburn - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 23-6 SU the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate, thus getting points here based on this trend alone makes for a viable wagering opportunity.

Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg   selection

Iowa is off a resounding 55-24 win vs Ohio State last week, and have been competitive all season long, losing by just 2 points to Penn State at home  and one score ( TD losses) to Northwestern and Michigan State  on the road in hard fought 17-10 defensive affairs In their only  3 losses on the campaign . With that said, I'm betting on  Iowa having  the defensive strength allowing just 18.1 ppg to be competitive against Wisconsin this week at just  under a two TD dog. Note: IOWA is 14-4 ATS  L/18 after scoring 50 points or more last game .Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a huge beat down of Indiana last week, by a 45-17 count, but have been bad bets in the past ATS under those circumstances as they are just  0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games after a win by 28 or more points and 1-9 ATS L/10   after a cover as a double digit favorite.

Wisconsin is perfect so far on the season, but I'm betting if their perfect season continues it  will not come without difficulties vs a under rated and under appreciated foe.

IOWA is 25-5 ATS  L/30  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game.

Iowa has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series. Badgers are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Play on Iowa to cover  1 unit reg selection

My own projections make this a huge win for Ole Miss. Actually one of my biggest of the season behind an SEC team that is improving as their campaign has progressed. I'm estimating that Ole Miss wins this game by 24 plus points on a value line. LA Lafayette D , has allowed 37.4 ppg on the season against average opponents for the most part , while Ole Miss has averaged more than 42 ppg in offensive production at home. Here today I will not be surprised by a 50 point out put by the Rebs and subsequent cover vs a side that has averaged about 21 ppg in offense on the road.

Ragin' Cajuns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

Road underdogs LA Lafayette - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a road win against a conference rival are 19-32 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection

Stanford despite of a 6-3 record including last weeks 24-21 loss to Washington State is a team that must be respected as home underdogs. I know their opponents Washington are highly rated, but I'm not that impressed by their resume, despite of the pundits being in love with them and feeling they deserve national play off recognition. With that said, I'm betting on a  revenge minded Stanford crew that lost to Washington last season by a humiliating 44-6 score to be hell bent on pay back and knocking the Huskies off their perch. It must be noted that Washington is only 11-34 SU L/45 on the road vs above .500 foes, while the Cards are 7-0 ATS L/7 as conference home dogs, and 7-1 ATS overall as 4 or more point dogs, and an amazing 13-0 SU L/13 following  a SU favorite loss with HC Shaw at the helm, including 11-0 SU/ATS L/11.Shaw is also 6-0 ATS L/6 after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach and is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.

STANFORD is 16-5 ATS L/21  versus excellent defensive teams - allowing  4.25  or less yards/play.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS  L/17 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game which happened against Oregon last time out in a 38-3 win.

CFB Road favorites like Washington - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 13-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on  Stanford to cover  1 unit reg selection

App State no longer looks like a top tier program. Yes, their still to respected because of pedigree and the recruiting  is still decent, but they have recently lost their last two games as favorites and once against look like they are being over rated as they have been out yarded in 4 of their L/5 games. I know Georgia Southern may not inspire bettors, but under new HC Chad Lundsford, who is 2-0 ATS, they  have gradually played better ball , and considering their top tier  ability to run the ball, always remain a dangerous underdog, especially vs a DD line like this. 

APPALACHIAN ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8  in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game and 2-12 ATS  L/14 in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.APPALACHIAN ST is 3-13 ATS  L/16  in home games after the first month of the season .

CFB Home favorites like App State  - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are just 37-75 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern  to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Bobcats enter this game with a explosive offense that has put 40 or more points on the board in 3 straight games, and must not be underestimated at home as dogs. I know Toledo is a top tier MAC team, but they are off a grueling hard fought 27-17 win vs Northern Illinois last week and could easily be in a letdown spot here this Wednesday night and go to 1-5 ATS L/6  after taking on NIU.

OHIO U is 7-1 ATS  in games played on turf this season Ohio HC .Solich is 13-4 ATS  L/17 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season and is 5-0 SU/ATS in his L/5 home game as dog and have covered 4 straight as conference home dogs.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-20 ATS L10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio to cover 1 unit reg selection

The SMU Mustangs have come a long way and are really forming into a very capable football program with an explosive offense, that can be a menace for most teams in this nation including the red hot undefeated UCF Knights who are ranked 15th in the country . With that said, and despite of their record, I myself still have some doubts about, UCF despite of some decent wins against some  pretty good teams, even though these said teams are  still not of the top tier variety . Now here as 14 plus point road favs the Knights  maybe getting just a bit to much love from the lines-makers considering how explosive their opponents the Mustangs can be offensively, making the home dog a  viable SU or back door opportunist here in a home game that will see them and their fans sky high with enthusiasm. This place will be rocking and a upset is not out of the question and a cover a higher probability than many might think possible.

UCF is 2-10 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point conference favs.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Make no mistake despite of losing last week to Air Force , Colorado State are still the most explosive team in  the Mountain West Conference this season, and I'm betting we see them at their very best this week in rebound mode. They have won 3 of their L/4 on the road, and actually did not look completely out of place vs Alabama in their lone road loss ( 23-41) Meanwhile, Wyoming off a huge revenger last week where they exerted a great deal of energy in a merciless DD win vs New Mexico, by a 42-3 count,  could easily find themselves drained and susceptible to being beaten up on themselves this week. I mean these kids play like their hair was on fire and won't be surprised if their spent.

COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in road games over the last 2 seasons.

 Road favorites like Colorado State  - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are a long term good bet going 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado State to cover 1 unit reg selection

UNLV is off a huge upset win vs Fresno State last week, winning by a 26-16 count, as 21.5 underdogs. The Bulldogs looked completely drained after pulling off an upset of their own vs San Diego State the previous week, and Rebels took advantage of the situation.  Now in another emotional letdown scenario  I'm betting its UNLV's turn to suffer . Look for a Hawaii team that despite of struggling on offense and  losing to pretty good San Diego State  program ,actually did not look as bad as I thought they would, and will now be well prepared to make a game of this after a facing last weeks very physical defensive opponent. What I' saying is look for the Warriors very capable offense to tee off in a big way here , vs a D, that allowed Utah State to pound them for 52 points the week before last.

UNLV is 2-13 ATS  L/15 off a road win against a conference rival .

CFB road team Hawaii  - with an excellent offense - averaging 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 23-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Hawaii to cover 1 unit reg selection

Ole Miss might not get a lot of respect from bettors this week, as they have now lost 5 of their L/6 overall, including a 38-37 loss to Arkansas last time out, but according to my power rankings and cross reference matchup stats, the Rebs actually matchup well against this type of opponent. Meanwhile, Kentucky is off an emotional win vs long time nemesis Tennessee last week, and could easily be in a letdown state coming into this tilt vs a hungry opponent. It must also be noted that despite of their 6 wins the Wildcats have been out  yarded by 106 ypg in their L/3 games and are a very over rated team at the moment.

KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games losing SU by just under 20 ppg. OLE MISS is 10-2 ATS  L/12  in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  In KENTUCKY's L/24 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  6.25  or more yards/play they have been outscored by a 43 to 22.8 average score. HC Stoops of Kentucky  is 0-7 ATS  L/7  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse .

CFB Home favorites like Kentucky - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 11-33 ATS L/25 seasons for  a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ole Miss Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection

Iowa State is the real deal, behind one of the better defenses in the Big 12 as they proved last week in a win vs ranked TCU by a 14-7 count as 7 point home dogs. They also proved a lot to me in that  tilt, and I'm betting they still have enough fuel in the tank to slow West Virginia down this week.  Meanwhile, W.Virginia  despite a explosive offense are a team that lacks a solid defense, and has allowed 34, 31, 35, 36, and 50 points in their L/5 games and according to my own projections Iowa State will have a similar plus offensive out put here, which gives them a great chance  for a SU upset considering how staunch their D has been.

IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att  dating back to last season.IOWA ST is 12-3 ATS  L/15 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .W VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB team like West Virginia  - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 8-35 ATS L/5 seasons or a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

CFB road team like Iowa State  - after going under the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 51-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover

Old Dominions defense is atrocious having allowed 53,38,58,35,35, 35 points respectively which makes them weak DD favorites. I know Charlotte may not inspire bettors, but CFB  home team vs. the money line Old Dominion - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 13-40 SU, for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.( lost a heart breaker N.Texas by a 45-38 count and are now in a letdown scenario)

OLD DOMINION is 4-14 ATS L/18 after allowing 37 points or more last game .

Penn States undefeated season came crashing down last week in the worst possible way, as they fell apart late and lost to Ohio State 39-38. I know a lot of pundits expect them now to come out very upset and ready to fire on all cylinders, but its never easy to get up off the proverbial matt after being body slammed and having the wind taking out you. Now in an emotional letdown scenario I expect a strong Michigan State defense to make life hard on the Lions in this spot. It must also be noted that the Spartans will also be in a big time revenge mode for being destroyed by Penn State last season by a 45-12 count. (Mich State is 9-1 SU L/10 and  11-1 ATS L/12 in Big 10 revenge tilts)

PENN ST is 2-12 ATS  L/14  in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing  285 or less yards/game .PENN ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and is 0-6 ATS  L/6  off a road loss.MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 ATS L/7  in home games in the second half of the season during the last few seasons.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Penn State  - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 12-38 ATS on the rebound for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the Michigan State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection

Texas Tech enters this game against a very competitive Kansas St football program having lost 4 of their L/5 and  3 straight games by double digit deficits , and in my opinion from the out set of this season have been over rated by the prognosticators. Meanwhile, Bill Snyder's well coached group must be respected, and after resting a lot of starters last week in a win vs instate Rivals Kansas, will now be primed to play a top tier brand of physical football. Take the points.

KC HC Snyder is 31-19 ATS L/50 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game.

CFB road team like KState - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 92-42 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Mississippi State is off one of their biggest wins of the campaign last week on the road, against Texas A&M and will now be in a letdown situation and in  a double jeopardy look ahead scenario as they prepare to play Alabama next week.  The goal of Miss State , is to stay healthy for their big game, and I'm betting they play down to their competition this week, while subbing in a lot of backups. Also UMass has suddenly come to life,  winning two straight while compiling 1619 yards of offense in their L/3 games overall while averaging 38.3 ppg, and are a viable cover group in this spot considering the circumstances. I'm betting on Umass moving to 7-0 ATS L/7 vs SEC sides.

Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection

Indiana coach Tom Allen knows know exactly what's coming his way this Saturday when his Indiana Hoosiers go against the fourth-ranked Wisconsin . QUOTE:
"They have just a stable of running backs," Allen said. "They keep rotating them in and pound you, pound you, pound you and try to beat you into submission in the course of the game. It's three tight ends at times and two tight ends most of the time, I-formation, and hunker right at you. END QUOTE:

That's exactly the recipe for success Wisconsin will use once again  this week  vs Indiana.

I know Illinois look disinterested last week in a sleepy win vs Illinois, but now after that short snooze and the season winding down and the possibility of play off spot ,you can  bet they will be awake and ready to make  a statement  vs a Indiana side that not built to withstand the physical pounding they are going to take today behind a D, that has allowed only 12.9 ppg game.

Wisconsin has owned this Indiana football program in the recent past winning 7 straight times by an average score of 58-14 and I am betting on  a repeat performance is on today's agenda.

WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 winning by an average of 18.2 ppg.

CFB Road favorites Wisconsin - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 51-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection

Marshall  after a nice run that saw them winning 5 straight games  behind a nasty D that allowed a total of 37 points ( 7.4 ppg) , looked asleep at the proverbial wheel last week at home in a loss to Florida International. Now wide awake after that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to respond in a big way vs Lane  Kiffins high flying Florida Atlantic football program  a side in a letdown situation after taking a big win against Western Kentucky last week by scoring 22 points in the 4th quarter for a 42-28 win.

Marshall is 4-0 SU L/4 meetings in this series, and I'm betting they cover and possibly pull off a su upset here.

MARSHALL is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return .FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS  in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs. FLA ATLANTIC is 9-22 ATS L/31 as a home favorite and 1-12 ATS L/13.

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 47-17 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Tonight Navy enters this game against Temple in a nasty mood after two straight hard fought losses derailed their undefeated season. Add to that revenge for a loss to Temple last year in the ACC title game  and you have a Navy side that will be dangerous and merciless. It must be noted that this is not the same smash mouth Temple football program of the last few seasons, under new HC Cosby and  despite of being feisty and well rested off a bye I'm betting  they won't have big enough gonads to stop their fire breathing opponent in this spot. 

Temple when off a bye is 1-9 ATS L/10 SU/ATS vs a conference team looking for revenge. Navy is 5-0 ATS on the road this season.

CFB Road favorites like Navy - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Temple - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection

Northern Illinois and Toledo arguably the two best teams in the MAC will go head to head this Thursday night in the Glass Bowl. Toledo has been on a roll of late winning and covering three straight, but their biggest weakness remains their defense, which was evident when they allowed Tulsa and Miami Fl 52 and 51 points respectively  and I'm betting the Huskies do some damage here this week via a balanced attack, while their own staunch D that allows just 18 ppg, will slow the Rockets explosive offense enough to keep them within striking distance of outright upset here this evening.  It must also be noted that NIU is 27-3 SU and 25-5 ATS L/30 on the road in MAC battles and the series visitor has not failed to cover in the L/6 confrontations. It must also be noted NIU is 15-1 SU and 16-0 ATS on the road vs a side off a win like the Rockets are and a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5  away  facing a team on a 3-0 SU/ATS run.

N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry.

CFB Home favorites like Toledo - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are a long term bad bet going just 61-141 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection

San Diego State after staring 6-0 this season, have fell on hard times thanks to becoming easy to read as they just consistently pass the ball to RB Rashaad Penny. Now they go against a Hawaii side that owns the No#.128 ranked pass efficiency D in the nation , and I expect the Aztecs will finally open up the play book and start looking downfield for bigger gains  and a much larger point production output. I also expect their own D, to stand tall here and give the one way passing game of the Hawaii Warriors some huge problems in what I'm betting will be a conclusive win.

San Diego State has owned Hawaii in the past going `18-3 ATS L/21 meetings and smashed them last season 55-0. I know the Warriors are off a bye week, but they are just 1-6 ATS with rest L/7 and are over matched by a superior team that needs a win badly and that's not a good omen for them getting any kind of revenge here tonight in paradise island.

SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS  L/11 when playing against a team with a losing record with the average margin of victory ringing in at 28.1 ppg and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better winning by an average of 27.7 ppg. HAWAII is 1-12 ATS  L/13 after playing 3 straight conference games. 

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Kentucky enters this game against downtrodden Tennessee off a demoralizing loss vs Mississippi St last week by a 45-7 count. These young men are not like pros and don't easily get up off the matt when slapped around in that type of fashion, and a hangover performance by the Wildcats will I'm betting  be the theme  here this Saturday. Meanwhile, on the flipside, I really don't think that Tennessee is as bad as the pundits think they are. Yes, they got beaten up on by Alabama last week and Georgia 3 weeks again in ugly fashion, but a lot of other teams who get respect were also stepped all over by these top tier SEC teams. Prior to the Alabama game Tennessee stood tall vs South Carolina losing a 15-9 heart breaker that they had chances to win, and must not be underestimated vs a slightly over rated Kentucky football program that the Volunteers have virtually owned over the years. This is actually a game that Tennessee can with SU, and I think the team as a whole knows it and needing a win  badly ,  will play with fire this week in what I expect will be a cover.

In the last 20 games in this series, Tennessee has won 19 of 20 meetings SU with the lone loss coming by a 10-7 score back in 2011 at Kentucky.

TENNESSEE is 30-16 ATS L/46  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better like KU.KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS  L/6 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.

Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kentucky.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - lower tier  team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games are actually good long term bets going 34-12 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 1 unit reg selection

This is a tilt, where my own power ranking systems suggest and outright win by the visitor (New Mexico) vs an over rated side ( WYOMING).  ( Linesmakers agree with my assessments, as does early sharp money) The Lobos run heavy  style of play very much matches up well against a Cowboys team struggling to score. Ball control and clock consumption, are the keys here for New Mexico who took a played a very good Colorado State football program close last week losing 27-24 covering as 10 point home dogs. Last season, Wyoming was clobbered by the Lobos (56-35), and despite of a revenge scenario being in play are just not built to be successfully against this type of team. I'll ring the bell here and expect the visitors to win and cover.

NEW MEXICO is 26-11 ATS  L/37 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry .

CFB Home underdogs like Wyoming - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 11-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team like New Mexico- excellent rushing team ( 4.8 YPR or more) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 41-14 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection

I am finally a believer in Miss State ,  after last weeks non empathetic DD beat down at home of Kentucky. The Bulldogs only two losses have come to Auburn and Georgia who I consider as two of the top three teams in the SEC. Texas A&M is no where near the level of those  teams according to my power rankings despite of recent wins/covers.  Meanwhile, Miss State now in a upward trajectory and currently  playing with a great deal of confidence and now forming into top gear look very capable of taking out a Texas A&M squad that has a history of not performing well off a bye week as HC Sumlins 2-9 ATS record with rest would indicate.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-2 ATS L/16 after playing a game at home. MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a cover as a double digit favorite .TEXAS A&M is 1-9 ATS  after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS L/6 after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game.TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7 in the second half of the season dating back to last season and have a negative long term ATS history in the second half of the season going 9-23 ATS L/31.

TEXAS A&M is 9-23 ATS L/32 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging  5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.

 CFB road team like Miss State  - after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 23-2 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Mississippi State to cover 1 unit reg selection  

These teams are dead even in the Big 10 with 1-3 records and 4-3 records overall. The difference maker is that PJ Flecks Gophers are the superior defensive side. That's not a good omen for a Iowa side with the 126 ranked red zone offense in the nation. It must also be noted that Minnesota has not failed to cover in their L/15 attempts as Big 10 road dogs of 4 points or more and that HC Fleck is 13-3-1 ATS in his L/15 roadies vs.500 or better opposition. With revenge on board for their only home defeat last season to the Hawkeyes, I'm betting their motivation and energy will also be a deciding factor vs a side that many not have to ability to challenge them effectively after losing a heart breaker in OT last week to Northwestern.

MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after playing 2 straight conference games .

CFB favorites playing as hosts like Iowa off one loss- exact  in OT  are 3-15 ATS L/18 when facing a winning avenging opponent like Minnesota.

CFB Home favorites like Iowa - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 36-74 ATS for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oregon and Utah are both teams trying to come out of slumps . Both have lost 3 straight. Both are desperate for a win, and I'm betting we are in for a close one here, with the points In my betting opinion ending up being golden . Look for Ducks super star RB Royce Clayton and the Ducks home field crowd energy to lead them to cover and be the difference maker . It must be noted that in the past the Ducks when on a 0-3 SU/ATS run have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS vs a side off  consecutive losses and repeat and rinse of this historical precedent is on Saturdays agenda. Also HC Whittingham of Utah is just 1-6 ATS L/7 off consecutive losses. Also for a league wide CFB historical data base: CFB  home team vs. the money line like Oregon - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 26-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oregon Ducks to cover 1 unit reg selection

UMass has been playing some decent ball of late, and been putting a boatload of points (50x2) on the board, as was the case in recent back to back games against Ohio and in their first win of the season last week vs a weaker than expected Georgia Southern program. Despite of that, I just don't believe that these young men are quite ready to take down, a Appalachian State football program that knows how to win , and I will be fading UMass in this spot as +3 point home dogs. Remember this is a Minutemen side that has lost to Coastal Carolina, struggling Old Dominion and inconsistent Hawaii this season. Also thanks to the Minutemen recent surprising offensive explosiveness will have the full attention of a Mountaineers side  that has only two losses this season vs Georgia and Wake Forest by 1 point, which diminishes Umass chances at catching their  opponent napping, and  for a upset under dog win/cover.

APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game.

Mountaineers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games.Minutemen are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.

CFB Underdogs of  3-3.5 to 10 points like Mass- after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Appalachian St to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Air Force for the most part has been a very competitive team with a explosive offense all season long, and must not be underestimated here in this spot vs a strong looking Colorado State football program . The Falcons took San Diego State and Navy down to the wire, teams that my own power rankings suggest are similar to Colorado States and are off conclusive back to back wins vs UNLV and Nevada. The Falcons did not even look out of place vs power 5 side Michigan losing 29-13 and staying close almost till the end. So as far as today is concerned I'm betting we have good value taking the points here with a team, that can run and gun with the best of teams, and capable of beating you SU or via the back door cover.

Air Force HC Calhoun is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better)  Air Force 25.1 Opponent 29.3.

CFB Road underdogs like Air Force - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 81-34 ATS the L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these sides could easily be college football poster boys for futility , with 1-7 records. But according to my own cross reference rankings, San Jose State has recently shown more of an upward trajectory than BYU , and more all overall improvement, giving a decent Fresno State program a run for their money covering in a 27-10 loss, and playing decently in Hawaii losing 37-26 as 17 point dogs. Today I'm betting this young group will once again stay close enough for a cover or pull off the SU upset vs a BYU side that should not be a -13.5 point favorite vs anyone in the FBS. Take the points.

SAN JOSE ST is 28-12 ATS  L/40 when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less).BYU is 2-10 ATS  L/12 in home games versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing  230 or more rushing yards/game.BYU is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in all lined games this season.BYU is 2-11 ATS  L/13  in home games after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.

CFB Road underdogs like SJ State- poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 44-12 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Jose State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Virginia fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and got crushed by Boston College ending an impressive 4 game winning run. Actually BC has been surprisingly offensively explosive, behind an already staunch D,  so I'm not being to hard on Virginia. Actually I expect the Cavaliers will bounce back this week, and cover and possibly spring the upset vs a Panthers side they matchup very well against, especially from a coaching perspective behind Bronco Mendenhall who I have a great deal of respect for. Meanwhile, HC Narduzzi is 4-12 ATS  L/16 in home games, has in my opinion mishandled a pretty good looking ( at least on paper) Panthers side. with that said,  I'm fading Pittsburgh here at home as favorites.

Cavaliers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.Cavaliers are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road gamesPanthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Panthers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.

PITTSBURGH is 0-7 ATS  L/7  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.

CFB home team like Pittsburgh  - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 21-54 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against  conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa is one very inconsistent team. There is a load of offensive talent, a lack of concentration , and a coaching staff that seems to be at the mercy of a group of young men who can come out and rock a stadium with explosive play or put you to sleep with a less than motivated performance. A few examples of this were, on display in Toledo earlier this season in the Glass Bowl against one of the MACs best teams the Rockets, taking part in a 54-51 blockbuster , almost pulling off the upset, and than in Houston taking out a decent Cougars side by a 45-17 count as DD dogs. Note:( SMU loss to Houston 35-22 in their meeting with them.) Two other tilts saw the young men from Tulsa play New Mexico and Navy very tough, losing close hard fought affairs, and than unexpected down games like their 20-14 loss at UConn last week as 6 point favorites. Now today, I expect this under rated Tulsa side, to make a game of their confrontation with SMU this week. It must be noted that Tulsa is  6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/games like SMU,  while the Mustangs are just   4-15 ATS  L/19 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 450 or more yards/game.

TULSA is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.

Meanwhile, SMU is off  hard fought 31-28 victory vs the Cincinnati bearcats last week, and now starting to show some chinks and their armour and maybe some fatigue as the season drags on, which is not a good omen against what can be a very high octane Canes side when their attention span is focused, as I'm betting it will be here.  SMU is 2-12 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points .

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are a long term good bet going 70-36 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Eastern Michigan has played some great defensive ball all season long, and have remained competitive on a consistent basis despite of their current 5 game losing streak. Their games have been grueling and exhausting, but the one that might have broke the camels back was last weeks hard fought 20-17 loss to Western Michigan in OT.  That was truly heart breaking and you could feel the energy just completely sucked out of this young group as they stood on the sidelines after the game. Now in a huge letdown situation they go up against a torrid D, that might even be better than theirs , and a balanced Northern Illinois  Huskies offense, that is very much better their own. Lay the lumber with the Huskies.

N ILLINOIS is 10-1 ATS  L/11 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game and 6-0 ATS  L/6 after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game and beginning to roll after a 48-17 beat-down of Bowling Green last week.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Mich - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 5-28 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

A lot of pundits believe that San Diego State will easily bounce back from last weeks surprising loss to Boise State ( 31-14) as their perfect season crashed and burned. But , hold your horses, I'm betting getting out of here vs a fast improving Fresno State football program will not come easily. Former California HC Tedford has really got the Bulldogs rocking winning 4 of 6 games with the losses coming to highly rated Alabama and Washington. Considering Fresno State has a top tier history of doing well with conference revenge failing to cover only once in their L/11 tries, it won't be a hard decision to back them here on the road in a key game getting  TD plus. ( Last year SDSt beat Fresno State 17-3).

SAN DIEGO ST is 11-24 ATS L/35 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season .FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS L/9 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS L/16 in all lined games.

Play on Fresno State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Wyoming after losing 2 of their first three games  to begin their season have won three straight games SU/ATS, and are finally starting to perform up to expectations behind stud QB, Joh Allen who is still not in top form , but  ready to explode at any time. However, Wyoming is ranked tied for first in Red Zone offense,  and should do much better than San Diego State did last week vs Boise State . The Broncos surprised a lot of pundits last week, by beating SD State, but the truth is the Aztecs are starting to become easier to read as the season has gone on, as they just continually hand the ball to Rashad Penney . With that said, and now in a letdown scenario after their upset win, I'm betting the Broncos will have a hard time getting up for this tilt despite of being in revenge mode for a 30-28 loss at Larime last season.  

WYOMING is 8-1 ATS  L/9 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last few seasons.BOISE ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8 as a home favorite and is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in home games after playing a conference game .

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Wyoming  - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wyoming to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these football programs  have been playing good ball of late, as Arizona is off back to back upsets of Colorado and defensively deficient UCLA, while California is off a 37-3 beat down of formerly undefeated Washington State. It's been California's D, that has them turned around this season, and Arizona's explosive offense that made them so dangerous. So in a game I have tabbed for D vs Offense, I'm betting on the D coming out on top and helping us get the  cover.  It must also be noted that California is 13-1 ATS L/14 in this series as dogs, and once again look like loveable pups in this spot at home in Berkeley.

ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs and 0-7 ATS  L/7  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Arizona's HC Rodriguez is 2-16 ATS  L/18 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 L/9 ATS   after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

California opened as the favorite here before the line was pushed back the other way favoring Arizona. The guys who work the other side of the counters in Vegas have some sharp minds, and despite of some early smart money coming in on Arizona I'm siding with the boys who make a living helping build Vegas in this spot.  The line ORIGINALLY OPENED  this way most probably because of some interesting long term trends that show , a CFB home team vs. the money line like California  - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in October games are 43-14 in the follow up for a 75% conversion rate for SU bettors and also that a home team vs. the money line like the Bears- off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9 are 46-14 for a 77% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the California Golden Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan enters this game ranked No.1 in the nation in defense, and are giving up just 14.7 ppg. Granted they have a horrendous time moving the ball downfield, but if they get can Karan Higdon, going downhill today I'm betting we have an extroidnary chance at covering . Last week he had 200 plus yards and looks like he is shifting into top gear just when Harbaugh and company will need it most. I know Penn State looks like the team to beat in the Big 10, but despite of Michigan inconsistencies this season, must be respected as HC Harbaugh is 7-1 in his career vs undefeated opposition with the only loss coming by 4 points. Penn State has a bye week , but being well rested may become a secondary concern, as the offense may find themselves rusty against a nasty D, that will be out to hand out some big time pain this week.

PENN ST is 2-14 ATS  L/16 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 150 or less passing yards/game with a negative margin of 6.1 ppg. PENN ST is 6-25 ATS  L/31 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play.

Penn State HC Franklin is just 9-19-1 ATS vs .750 or better foes like Michigan.

Penn State is 1-13 as a favorite when undefeated following a DD win vs a ,750 or better winning record like Michigan.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Mich - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 72-35 ATS L/25 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rambling Wreck are more one dimensional team then ever, and are not only a run team, but a run only team as they rank 128 th in the nation in pass efficiency.  Their fairly easy to read for good Ds, which Wake owns. With Clemson on board next week, for GTech I'm betting their concentration will also be off, which is not a good omen against a very good Wake Forest team, that are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 road games. Also WAKE FOREST is 28-8 ATS  L/36 vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. I'm betting on a well rested Wake Forest team off a bye to have the edge today vs a GTECH side off a emotional loss a Miami Fl, last week.

WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog and  16-4 ATS L/20  in road games after a bye week.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like GTech - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 6-26 ATS L/32 dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection

Charlotte is a  lower tier  team, no mistake about it, but UAB is as inconsistent as they come, and despite of back to back underdog wins, in no shape or form should be TD+ road favs here as they have failed in this role 12 of the L/17 times. UAB is 7-19 ATS L/26  in road games off a win against a conference rival. (They beat over rated Middle Tenn St last week 25-23)

It must also be noted that CFB teams off back to back upset victories are not a good bet when going against below .500 opposition going just 14-30 ATS L/44 times dating back 27 seasons. Also CFB  home team vs. the money line like Charlotte- off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 27-6 for a over powering 82% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons. ( Charlotte lost last week to W.Kentucky 45-14)

In Charlottes lone home game against a viable FBS side they lost 14-3 to up trending Marshall) It was a good effort that can be replicated today against a side in a letdown/trap spot.

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oregon has been getting beaten up on of late, losing two straight lopsided events ,  but I expect they will be in this game vs their hosts UCLA , as a more reliable QB Taylor Alle will be back under center after backup Braxton Burmeister proved he can't handle the role .  Also the return of WR Royce Freeman will also aid the Ducks here in their ability to cover. Note: Taggart is 5-0 ATS L/5 after back to back ATS losses.

Jim Mora's UCLA is a defensive and TO deficient train wreck this season. Ranking 126th in TO margin while allowing 40 ppg on average . Considering Oregon has a recent history of gauging the Bruins D in the past averaging 48.3 ppg in this series, it will be an easy decision for me to take the Ducks in this spot.UCLA is 0-7 ATS  L/7 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

CFB road team like the Ducks  - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 63-26 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone seems to love Miss State here, and on paper maybe their right. But some other personal observations have come to light for me after watching more and more the Rebels QB Nick Fitzgerald of late. What I have noticed is that he's being allowed to let loose, in dangerous situations, as was the case last week when he threw to unnecessary interceptions in the red zone. This kid seems not to concerned with risk management, and does not measure up some passing situations well leaving his side vulnerable for pick 6s. This kid just does not get it, despite of being ultra talented. Instead I like Kentucky's mobile QB Stephen Johnson behind a explosive offense to be the better of the two today and to keep his Wildcats team in this game and get us the cover.


CFB Road underdogs like Kentucky- after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a top-level team ( 80% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 32-8 ATS over the L/10 seasons, for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona St is off a big win vs Washington last time out, and have been competitive all season long, and have not lost by more than 10 points this season. I know The Sun Devils might be in a letdown mode, and that Utah has owned this series of late, but they are off two grueling physical  losses in their L/2 games against Stanford and USC and should show those effects here today, and also be in a letdown state. With that said I'm taking the points here.

Utah HC Whittingham is 12-27 ATS  L/39 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

 CFB team like Arizona State  - off a upset win as a double digit underdog, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 23-4 ATS L/27 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

E.Michigan has lost 4 straight games, but make no mistake about it, their a much better team  than  that and have been very competitive in those losses losing by an average of 4.25 ppg , losing by 7, 4.5.1 points respectively with 3 of those coming on the road. In the 7 point loss to Ohio at home , they had chances to win that game, against what is turning out to be one of the top teams in the MAC this season. Its the E.Michigan D, that been impressive, as was the case against an explosive SEC team in Kentucky on the road( 24-20 L). So slowing down a Western Michigans offense should not be a problem, as well as  doing enough damage offensively to get us a cover. Remember this  Broncos team is  not a PJ Fleck coached side, and no longer deserves the respect they have over the last few seasons as was the case last week in a ugly 14-13 loss to Akron.

E MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS L/7 after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.E MICHIGAN is 15-4 ATS L/19 in all lined games and is 11-2 ATS as an underdog.
E MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last couple of  seasons.

Play on E.Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa is off a huge surprise 45-17 win vs Houston last week, and will now be in a letdown scenario here this week vs a UConn team that is off a upset win vs Temple last week. The difference is that UConn had a good chance to win their previous game  from the outset , while the Canes behind their 129th ranked D, were not. Now this extremely inconsistent Tulsa team is being asked to lay essentially a TD on the road, something I'm having a hard time swallowing. Especially considering how pathetic the Tulsa D has been this season.

TULSA is 8-21 ATS  L/29 versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play.CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS L/15  in home games off an upset win as an underdog.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UConn - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are 69-36 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UConn Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection

Marshall is a team the pundits are not paying a lot of attention to this season , thanks to last seasons miserable results . However, this season, they are in big time upswing, behind a solid defense that is ranked No.2 in the nation, in red zone defense and allowed 3 of their L/4 opponents to a FG or less and the defense overall has held 4 sides to 20 points or less this season. Tonight against a Middle Tennessee State football program that has failed to cover 9 of their L/15 as home dogs, the Blue Raiders are fade material in my betting opinion

. note: the Raiders are off a upset loss last time out to UAB, 25-23 as 4 point chalk, , HC Stockstill is 2-9 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite and also 0-5 ATS /SU L/5 as a dog following a loss as a favorite.



CFB road team like Marshall - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games. are 30-7 ATS L/37 over the L/25 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection

Houston enters this game off a surprising and embarrassing loss to Tulsa last time out as DD road favorites. They looked truly asleep at the wheel in that tilt after a big revenge win vs a up trending SMU side the week before by a 35-22 count. The good news for Cougars fans is that they will take on a Memphis team that has not won here in 11 years, and play this game on home turf where the Cougars have not lost since 2014. Houston also has revenge on board for a 48-44 loss in Memphis last season, even though they put 624 yards of offense up. Considering the Tigers are off a grueling and hard fought win vs Navy last week, 30-27, I'm betting they won't have as much left in the tank in this spot vs a Houston side that is superior defensive side with 73 yard per game better stopping margin than their visiting opponents.

MEMPHIS is 0-8 ATS  L/8 off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less and 8-19 ATS  off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. Houston has won 18 of their L/23 revengers.

Play on the Houston Cougars to cover 1 unit reg selection

Washington 6-0 is a fine team and ranked among the best in the nation. Many even believe they have a chance at a National Championship. However, tonight, I'm betting they will not easily get past a Arizona State side, that is fresh off a bye week and has the ability to fire back with some offensive fire power, ranking No.1 in red zone offense in the nation and get us a cover from many different perspectives, ie back door, shoot out or even an outright upset. I know this looks like a walk in the park for the mighty Huskies, but this series, has seen the Sun Devils win 10 of the L/11 games SU while covering 11 straight meetings. It must also be noted that Arizona State has covered 4 straight as DD home dogs, and that week 7 of the Huskies football schedule has been a curse for the program from a ATS perspective as they have failed to cover 11 straight times.

ARIZONA ST is 13-3 ATS L/16  in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. ARIZONA ST is 11-1 ATS  L/12  in home games when playing with 2 weeks .

Arizona States HC Graham is 15-4 ATS  L/19  in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less .

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan State played a grueling/physical defensive game against the Michigan Wolverines last time out and came out on top via a 14-10 score as underdogs. Now drained exhausted and in an emotional letdown scenario they go against a hard working PJ Fleck lead side that will primed and motivated to get a win as home dogs.

 It must be noted that after winning their first 3 games the Gophers have lost back to back games and need a victory badly and have responded well of adversity in the recent past as is evident by these trends.Golden Gophers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Golden Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.

MICHIGAN ST is 0-6 ATS  L/6 as a road favorite.Spartans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Underdog is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah dominates at the line of scrimmage, and has some of the top defensive numbers in the PAC12. Meanwhile, USC, is banged up on the line of scrimmage, and just don't have enough viable healthy components at the moment to mix and match on the offensive or defensive line. That was the reason Washington State beat the Trojans, and why this could end up in a surprising upset here for Utah. I know the Utes are going with backup senior QB Troy Williams , because no.1 man under center Tyler Huntely is injured.  However, it must be noted that Williams started all 12 games last season, so its not like he can't manage this teams offense, even though  it will just not be as dynamic and instead revert back to a ground heavy attack that eats clock.

Utah's HC Whittingham is 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games after a loss by 3 or less points, which happened against Stanford last time out. USC is 0-7 ATS L/7  in home games after 5 consecutive games where they committed 2 or more turnovers.UTAH is 12-3 ATS  L/15 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.UTAH is 16-5 ATS  L/21  in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better )

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Utah - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the over rated UTSA Roadrunners got smacked around by southern Miss and lost as 10 point chalk. Now they come into North Texas as favorites again, and I feel very much like the wrong team is favored here. You have to remember that all three of UTSAs wins have come against winless sides, and now against a explosive Mean Green offense that has put 46, and 43 points on the board in back to back games and out stating their competition by 110 ypg   their in trouble. With the added incentive of payback for the Mean Green for a 31-17 road loss they suffered last season, to the Roadrunners, I'm betting the home team covers.

NORTH TEXAS is 18-7 ATS  L/25 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 UTSA - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 22-57 dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on North Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

LA Monroe have won 3 straight games, but what has become obvious is that their defense is horrendous, as is evident by having allowed an of 37 ppg.  Meanwhile, Georgia State's defense has been formidable vs all but one opponent this season ( Penn St) and will be more prepared to make key stops. On offense, GState might lack fire power, but against this type of empty D, they should have a viable output that helps us cover the number.

ULM is just 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS L/11 as chalk vs .500 or better opponents.

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS K/6 in weeks 5 through 9 and  is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games against conference opponents  and is 12-3 ATS L/15  in road games.

Play on Georgia State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Kentucky after former HC Jeff Brohm left for Purdue  has lost their offensive effectiveness  and last week barely got by lowly UTEP by a 15-14 count.  Actually the Hilltoppers are in a desperate state as they have been out gained  in all 5 of their games this season, and are being over rated by the linesmakers here today as DD home favorites. From a value line perspective it must be noted that Charlotte is 4-1 ATS L/5 as a DD conference dog. Hey guys I know Charlotte is not exactly a quality team, but W KENTUCKY is  just 3-12 ATS  L/15  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play and 1-9 ATS L/10 in the first half of the season .

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Navy unleashed its option attack out of the shotgun against Air Force and rushed for 471 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-45 victory. Considering Memphis ranks   93rd in the nation against the run its obvious to me that Memphis coach Mike Norvell and his team are in trouble this week.Navy won last year's meeting 42-28, rushing for 532 yards in a key conference victory that propelled the Midshipmen to the American Athletic Conference Western Division title and repeat performance is not out of the question here.

NAVY is 11-2 ATS L/3 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game and 9-21 ATS  after a win by 28 or more points and  7-26 ATS  after scoring 42 points or more last game and  2-11 ATS L/13 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened in a lopsided win vs UConn last time out.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 Navy - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 24-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection