LSU got the proverbial monkey off their backs last time out against Florida winning SU on the road by a 17-16 count. Now they go against an explosive Auburn side that despite of deserving respect are now a little banged up , and could be without key RB Kerryon Johnson who left his last game with hamstring issues.

With that said LSU HC Bill Orgeron and his Bayou Bengals are now in a position to get redemption for a loss they suffered to Troy State at home in their last game here, if they can upend or stay extremely competitive vs Auburn this week.

I'm betting that the home team will come out fired up and plat like their hair is on fire, and give Auburn a run for their money.

Note:LSU running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams have been hobbled by leg injuries, but both should be ready to go Saturday and both are said to being doing much better.

LSU has won 8 straight meetings in this series , while Auburn  are just 1-10 ATS away with conference revenge. Auburn is also 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 on the road vs a conference side off a ATS win.

CFB home team like LSU - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Buffalo is of a grueling 5 OT loss last week vs Western Michigan by a 71-68 count in now will be exhausted and in a huge let down scenario. Now they go against a Northern Illinois program that leads the nation in tackles for a loss and has owned this series in the past winning 9 straight times by an average of 29 ppg. Northern Illinois after a leisurely 24-3 win vs Kent State last week, will be fresh enough to own and cover this game as well.

BUFFALO is 4-17 ATS  L/21 off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival and is 2-10 ATS   off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival

.N ILLINOIS is 8-0 ATS  L/8 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers and 11-1 ATS  L/112  after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and also 6-0 ATS  L/6 after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game .N ILLINOIS is 11-3 ATS  L/`4 in road games. College Football FBS road  chalk are 42-4 SU  this season and 36-8-2 ATS vs sides like Buffalo off a loss.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Air Force will be a letdown situation today against UNLV, after dueling against their rivals Navy last week and losing. It must be noted that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS L/7 after playing against the Midshipman, and UNLV is 2-0 ATS on the road this season, and 4-1 ATS away dating back to last season. I'm betting on the Rebels run game that is averaging 266 ypg to run over a Air force run D, that is allowing 254 ypg.

AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS  L/6 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game.

CFB road teams like UNLV - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 turnovers/game committed or less), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are a long term 136-83 ATS for a 62% conversion rate.

Play on the UNLV Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oh how the mighty have fallen . BYU enters this game ranked 126th in pass efficiency this season   and 124th in time of possession and have been outscored by a 104-37 count in their L/3 losses. Meanwhile, Miss State after a fast start to their campaign were bent over by top tier nationally ranked Auburn and Georgia ,  and are now angry and very much ready for redemption against what is now a struggling Cougars side that cannot move the ball. I know the linesmakers are asking us to lay the lumber in a 3+ TD Spread, but I'm betting we have value here with well rested  chalk off their bye week.

Cougars are 0-7 ATS L/7 vs SEC.

Lay the points with Miss State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Troy in their last trip to the gridiron defeated LSU on the road , in a huge upset as 21 point under dogs. Now they come home to play South Alabama in conference action off a bye week and despite of being rested I'm betting it will be very hard not to be in an emotional let down scenario here as  big DD favorites.  It must  also be noted that none  of Troys 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by more than 5 points , with two coming by a FG margin. After the huge win at LSU, the Trojans now also have a huge target on their backs, and you can bet South Alabama will be primed and extremely motivated to pull of an upset of their own. With that said, I'm expecting a very hard fought affair here with the points ending up being golden. The last two meetings in this series in 2015, 2016 were decided by a 6 and 7 points respectively and similar margin of victory is what I'm projecting tonight.

S ALABAMA is 15-4 ATS  L/19 in road games in the first half of the season. TROY is 0-6 ATS L/6 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 dating back to last season.

Play on South Alabama to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah (4-0) well rested off a bye week enters this PAC 12 game against Stanford (3-2) as the most under rated team in the conference and must be respected here as home dogs. This Utes team is experienced and tough as nails and now have a viable offense to go along with a D that must be considered of the top tier variety. Meanwhile,  the Cardinal despite of pre season billing , as conference front runners, have been a disappointment in some ways especially defense , as is evident by allowing USC 42 points , UCLA 34 and Arizona State 24 points respectively. With that said, I expect the Utes to make more key defensive stops today and get us the cover , behind a multi faceted offense that can do damage.

UTAH is 34-17 ATS L/51 after a bye week and is 36-19 ATS  L/55 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Utah HC Whittingham is 18-9 ATS  l/27 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) with the average score ringing in at Utah 30.3 and opposition 25. My own estimates suggest that Utah will score at least 28 points, which is a positive indicator when considering that the Utes are 8-1 ATS L/9 when they score 28 or more points winning by an average of two TDs a game.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover

Projected score: Utah 30 Stanford 28

Memorial Stadium will be rocking in Lincoln, Neb. A sellout string of 358 games dating to Nov. 3, 1962 will have the Cornhuskers with a full house as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers this Saturday night.

In their two most recent battles against Wisconsin they held the Badgers to 23 points and lost by 2 and 6 points respectively. I know Nebraska has started a little slowly this season, but their have been flashes of brilliance, and I'm betting the disrespect associated with  DD home underdog role, will ignite them even further. The Huskers are 5-1 ATS L/6 as conference home dog of 5 points or more , while the Badgers are 1-5 ATS as a DD road favorite vs a side off a win. ( Nebraska beat Illinois last week)

I expect the wild card to be a steadily improving Nebraska D, under the tutelage of  first-year defensive coordinator Bob Diaco.
The Blackshirts have allowed only two offensive touchdowns in the past 14 quarters. Last week, they held Illinois to 199 yards of offense, marking the third straight game in which they've held opponents to fewer than 250 yards.

NEBRASKA is 11-1 ATS L/12 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game  and is 13-4 ATS  L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season. NEBRASKA is also 22-9 ATS  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better )

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Nebraska - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 62-29 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Alabama has been obliterating opponents and crushed back to back SEC foes by a combined 125-3 count and are now because of this domination being made huge favorites vs a team getting very little respect from the public and linesmakers. Meanwhile, their hosts Texas A&M after losing their opener to UCLA after blowing a 44-10 lead and losing 45-44 have won 4 straight and if it were not for that epic crash would be 5-0 on the season. Now we have a situation where Sumlin and company can get some redemption, for their opening embarrassment if they can stay competitive.  With that said,  I'm betting  that the Aggies leave everything on the field today, and cover the number. (Texas A&M has covered 4 of their L/5 as DD home dogs)

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like the Aggies - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 40-11 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites like Alabama - excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are just 9-31 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors during the 25 seasons.

Play on Texas A&M to cover

Kansas State opened up Big 12 play with a victory against Baylor and will now head back on the road to face the Texas Longhorns on Saturday at Texas Memorial Stadium.   .K-State

defense remains it strong point and  has held its first four opponents to under 21 points, and I'm betting on Texas having issues scoring here today.

K-State has run over  teams from the state of Texas of late as is evident by the Cats having won their last six confrontations against teams from Texas, including all five major FBS programs in the state last season (Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor.Since 2011, K-State is 16-11 in Big 12 play on the road and should be respected here as underdogs.

K-State D is their staple, but the it must be noted that the offense has been one of the best red zone groups over the last few seasons as the Wildcats are the only team to finish in the top-15 nationally in red zone offense in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

KANSAS ST is 21-9 ATS  L/30 as a road underdog of 7 points or less.KANSAS ST is 13-4 ATS  L/17  in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. HC Snyder is 30-17 ATS   versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more.

CFB Road underdogs like KState - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 125-64 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 I keep looking for reasons to downgrade the SMU Mustnags, but I cannot do it based on consistent performances. They have averaged 48.5 ppg, and  scored 58, 54,36, 44, 49 points respectively in 5 tilts , with their lowest output coming against a 5-0 TCU. Now they go against a tough cougars D, that trys to eat clock with s lead. But the biggest problem with Houston is that their offense stumbles alot and is not as cohesive as their defense. Here against a extremely explosive SMU attack, I'm betting their in trouble. I know that Houston has revenge in mind for a 38-16 set back as home favs last season vs SMU, but you don't always get what you want, especially against a team like the Mustangs that matches up very well against them. With that said, getting points here makes for a viable investment option.


SMU is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 37 points or more last game and 7-0 ATS  L/7 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like SMU - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games 50 -18 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like SMU - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 38-11 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover

Southern Miss looked really good in their first three games,  until the wheels fell of the proverbial truck  as they blew a decent lead vs North Texas last week. I know UTSA is undefeated in their first three games, but they continue to shoot themselves in the foot as they take a boat load full penalties ( no.1 in the nation) and that I'm betting that will be their downfall this week, vs a Southern Miss program that will be hell bent on getting some pay back for a 55-32 loss here last season. It must be noted that Southern Miss out gained the Roadrunners in that game piling up 562 yards in offense but lost because of 3 turnovers.

Play on Southern Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection

Colorado State will be playing their 3 rd straight road game this week, after flying out to Hawaii and beating up on the Warriors by A 51-21 count. The Rams now tired and jet lagged will be at a disadvantage  vs a feisty and somewhat surprisingly explosive Utah State Aggies side  that has put 101 points on the board in their 2 games.

Utah is 28-6-1 L/35 at home SU.

UTAH ST is 10-2 ATS  L/12 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and is 10-2 ATS    in home games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.

CFN Road favorites like Colorado State - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 6-27 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the Utah State Aggies to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Terps controlled Minnesota last week in a 31-24 win and held the Gophers to a season-low 309 yards , while rushing for 262 yards against a D that was ranked No. 1 in the country against the run. Now this week against a Ohio State program that smashed the Terps for the worst defeat in program history last year (62-3),  I expect a very motivated effort and more importantly a cover by the visitors in this spot.

OHIO ST is 2-10 ATS  L/12   in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. HC Meyer is 4-17 ATS   after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game which happened against Rutgers in a lopsided 56-0 win.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Ohio State - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are just 14-40 ATS in their follow up game for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like Maryland - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 105-52 ATS over the L/5 seasons for 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Maryland to cover 1 unit reg selection

LSU did not prepare well for Troy State last week and were upset by a 24-21 count. The Bayou Tigers probably got caught looking to this game vs Florida. Now this week a big meeting took place on  campus and the teams coaches going forward are supposedly now on the same page, according to a press release. Whatever, that means. Truth be told this meeting was more of , what the hell happened question and answer  session. But like the old saying goes , On Any Given Sunday or Saturday in this case, any team can pull off a win.  With that said, Nothing has changed for LSU , its still a good program and still loaded with talent, and despite of their recent struggles are more than capable of upending a Florida Gators side now operating under a new QB Fileipe Franks as a  starting pivot Jack Del Rio is out with an injury. Florida won last year's meeting 16-10, stopping the Tigers on two rushes from the Gators' 1 on the final two plays of the game and now with revenge on board and HC Orgeron on the hot seat, I expect we see the best the Tigers have to offer.

LSU is 27-13 ATS   in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses  and is 15-4-1 ATS as a dog following a SU favorite defeat, including 12-1-1 ATS when facing a better than .700 opponent.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Gators - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 19-48 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Florida State after not playing for three weeks because of hurricane  cancellations are taking  time to jell this season, especially after losing their starting QB Deondre Francois. But this Seminoles program is deep and talented, and now I'm betting we see them at their best this week vs a very good Miami Florida team . It must be noted that  Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 43-7 SU at home, in his career and has covered 14 of 17 vs undefeated opposition like the Canes including 7-1 ATS at home. FLORIDA ST is 20-8 ATS L/28 off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite, and are  23-9 L/32 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.Fisher is 10-2 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. Considering Florida State has won 7 straight meetings in this series straight up, and has covered 5 straight as dogs it will not be a hard decision taking them as home pups  in this spot. 

Play on Florida State to cover   

Penn State is turning into a Big 10 contender, but Northwestern is not intimated by them in them in the  least as they have beaten them in back to back meetings. It must be also noted that Penn State has failed in 6 straight with conference revenge in road games,  and with HC Frankilin   3-11-1 ATS  and 1-7 SU and have not covered once during that span vs teams like Northwestern that have allowed 26 points or less, the Lions don't look like solid favorites

. I know Penn State has regained a lot of their tarnished respect back with some wins over the last few seasons, but not all is perfect with the football program on the field, as they have struggled with their offensive line of late, and their running game, and their overall numbers outside of the win column are also a concern. I also know Northwestern might seem like a disappointment to some who thought they turned a corner towards bigger and better things this season, but the season is still young, and today I'm betting we see them at their best.

PENN ST is 8-19 ATS  L/27  in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened in a 45-14 win vs Indiana last week.

Play on Northwestern to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the Demon Deacons showed me their toughness in  a hard fought 26-19 home loss to Florida State. Its Wake Forests D  makes them a formidable underdog as they are ranked 29th in total yards allowed (317.2 ypg), 32nd vs the pass (184.4 ypg) and 52nd vs rushing attacks (132.8 ypg), and are allowing just 14.4 ppg, which ranks them 13th in the nation.The Deacons returned 19 starters off last season's team, including senior quarterback John Wolford. Meanwhile, Clemson off a road win vs VTech and out yarded by 10 yards are now exhausted after playing three top 15 football programs during the month of September. With that said, I will not be surprised if the hard working Demon Decons catch Dabo Swinney and company in a letdown spot and get us the cover.  

Wake Forests HC Dave Clawson is 11-2 ATS as a underdog of 19 or more points, including 6-0 ATS when they have a .500 or greater record. Meanwhile, Clemson is just 1-6-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of 15 or more points

. WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 2-14 ATS  L/16 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are 14-40 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors over the L/5 seasons.Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 13-38 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection

BYU has really fallen in every ones power rankings , but this team is still capable of a decent effort here in their own digs (59-12 L/71 SU L/12 seasons), and must not be disrespected or underestimated vs a Boise State football program that as failed to cover 12 of their L/15 games overall, and have been out yarded while allowing 29 ppg this season. It must also be noted that the Cougars  are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 when on a 4 game skid, and have won 8 straight at home SU when off a loss as a favorite as was the case in last weeks negative outcome to Utah State.

BOISE ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 ATS   after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.

BYU is 30-0 SU at home since 2006 against opposition sides that allow more than 28 PPG like Boise State.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Boise State - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are a long term 35-68 ATS for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

BYU to cover  1 unit reg selection

Everyone loves the offensive explosiveness of the Louisville Cards behind the legs and arm of super athletic LaMar Jackson. But what few seem to recognize is the inconsistency of the Cardinals defense, which is not of the top tier variety, as was the case against Clemson allowing 47 points, and N.Carolina 35 and Purdue 28. The only two teams that did not run over their D, was the bumbling duo of Kent St and  Murray State.  Meanwhile, NC State can play a tough brand of defense, and have shown their propensity as dogs when they upset Florida State by a 27-21 count. The Wolfpack are on a current 4 game win streak, and still have not peaked in my opinion. With revenge on board I expect this 22 returning starter side, to be wound up to get payback for a ugly and merciless  54-13 beat-down at Louisville last season.  

Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points NC State - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 88-45 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Nevada enters this game at 0-4, but they have been very competitive according to my own numbers (not so much last week vs a great looking Wash St side) but overall stats and power rankings and must not be underestimated.  Meanwhile, Fresno State despite of a 1-2 record are according to my own numbers, no more than -5.5 to 6 point home favorite,. I know that the Wolfpack could be with out RB Jaxon Kincaide, but as I have said before, that position is the most easily filled position in College Football, and the Pack can fill the void if need be. With that said, I'm betting on Nevada off a bye week  covering what I believe to be a generous spread. Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.

NEVADA is 8-1 ATS   after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game .Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Fresno State.Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.FRESNO ST is 7-22 ATS   after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.

Play on Nevada to cover

Clemson owns a great football program and I have a lot of respect for them. But tonight I'm going against them vs a side that matches up well head to head with them, the VTech Hokies. In last seasons ACC Championship game the Tigers pulled off a 42-35 win and now pay back is on Justin Fuente mind. It must be noted as great as Clemson is, they are just 3-7 ATS as 10 point or less away favs, and 4-9 ATS L/13 vs a conference side with revenge. Meanwhile, VTech is 7-0 ATS L/7 at home with ACC revenge as a underdog. It must also be noted that National champs are 0-6 ATS away L.37 years, when laying points against an undefeated opponent.

VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS  L/12 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season.CLEMSON is 6-20 ATS  L/26 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight. VTech has covered 6 of the L/9 in this series including 2 of 3 here at home.

CFB Road favorites like Clemson - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 12-37 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on VTech to cover 1 unit reg selection

Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic (1-3) might not be putting many  wins up on the board , but they are showing steady improvement. Last week against a very strong Buffalo Bulls football program they went toe to toe losing a 34-31 heartbreaker as 3 point road dogs . Now this week as they peak  I am betting their  ready to notch a home  victory vs a banged up Middle Tennessee State (2-2) side, that has starting QB Brent Stockstill suffering with a shoulder injury and key wide receiver, Richie James dealing with an ankle injury. It must also be noted RB Shane Tucker is also banged up.  If any of them play they are expected to be less than 100%. Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 35-11 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover

LSU looks like they have problems and  HC Orgeron is on the hot seat. Another tumultuous game is now on the Horizon vs a feisty Troy group that is a perfect 4-0 L/4 as 21 or more point dogs.  As a matter of fact Orgeron is his career is just 10-25 SU vs an above .500 side. That is not a good omen for a LSU gridiron group that utilizes RB Derrius Guice a great deal to move the ball, and with him banged up, and no one as talented as him to take his place, I'm  negative on the Bayou Bengals chances at covering.

LSU is 2-12 ATS L/14   in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.LSU is 7-18 ATS  L/25 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.

CFB Road underdogs like Troy - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 103-52 dating back 10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan State outs yarded Notre Dame last week by 141 yds, but still found themselves on the wrong end of a lopsided score thanks to no less than three costly turnovers and a boatload full of penalty yards. Now this week, with less pressure on them to perform I expect they beat up on a Iowa team that is completely deflated after a hugely emotional loss to Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes played their hearts out, and have nothing to show for it and  now will have nothing left in the tank for this tilt. With Michigan on board next week, you can bet we will see the best the Spartans here.

Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection

This Buffalo football program has come a long way over the last few seasons, and are now in a position to challenge for a MAC Championship. The Bulls played Big 10 opponent Minnesota very tough in their opener losing by a 17-7 count and are 2-1 since.   Now they go against a 0-3 Kent State side, that has been out yarded by an average of 352 yards per game so far this season. With said, I'm betting this very good Buffalo Bulls  team comes out here with their helmets on fire as  they look to avenge last years 44-20 drubbing at home vs the Flashes. It must be noted that the host team is 0-7 ATS L/7 in this series.

KENT ST is 0-9 ATS  after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game and  is 0-10 ATS  after gaining 2.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

CFB Home underdogs like Kent St - after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 18-46 ATS over the last 10 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

Florida State (0-2) looked rusty after an extended layoff, because of Hurricane Irma,  vs NC State and lost 27-21. But this team is just to talented not to get up off the matt and get things going, even with star QB Deandre Francois out with an injury. I know Wake Forest is a fine team, but the Seminoles thrive vs top tier defenses as Fisher is 10-1 ATS   vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game winning SU by more than 20 points per game on average.  

 FLORIDA ST is 38-22 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.  
 

CFB Road teams like Florida State with a 0-2 record, playing as road favorites are 5-0 ATS vs a undefeated side like Wake Forest (4-0) dating back 20 seasons. 

Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Vanderbilt got blasted by No.1 Alabama last week, by an embarrassing 59-0 count. Now looking to get some pride and respectability back I'm betting the Commodores come out here and give a Gators program off back to back last minute wins vs Tennessee and Kentucky , a run for their money.  The Gators after those aforementioned victories will now find themselves in a letdown spot, and showcase what has become a lethargic  inconsistent attack that lives and dies via a internal horse shoe wedged deep inside of them. Both these teams can play a strong grinding defensive style of football, and that's what I'm betting happens today in what will be closer game than the line indicates. Thus getting points here will be golden in my humble opinion.

VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread dating back to last season! Vandys HC Mason is 9-2 ATS L/11 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Florida - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 13-39 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection

Hawaii played a very good game last time out despite of losing to Wyoming. They outplayed their opponent and still did not find the win column. Now jetlagged and downtrodden, an emotional let down scenario, is at hand when they play the Colorado State Rams. After staying competitive vs a extremely tough Alabama program last time out, and scoring 23 points in a cover, this will seem like a walk in the park for the Rams.

COLORADO ST is 6-0 ATS  L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.COLORADO ST is 18-6 ATS  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 yards/play or more. COLORADO ST is 23-8 ATS L/31   vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.HAWAII is 4-13 ATS  L/17 against conference opponents.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS   after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.HAWAII is 1-8 ATS L/9 off a road loss.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Colorado State  - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 31-8 ATS  for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado State to cover  1 unit reg selection

USC( 4-0) No.5  enter this game ranked very highly ,  thanks in part to an early season DD win vs a tough Stanford group. Other than that victory, they have barely gotten past three of their opponents. Now here against No.16 Washington State (4-0) their undefeated season is in jeopardy vs a HC Mike Leach team that is 9-1 ATS as a dog vs a undefeated side like USC. It must also be noted that Washington States D, is 100 ypg better than the Trojans at this point in the season, and will be the difference maker here tonight in a tilt featuring two explosive offenses.

WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game .WASHINGTON ST is 9-1 ATS  L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play.WASHINGTON ST is 8-1 ATS L/9  in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return .USC is 0-8 ATS L/8  in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite.WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS  L/16 when the total is greater than or equal to 63.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Washington State- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 49-17 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington State to cover 1 unit reg selection

After facing LSU , Utah, and Wisconsin, going against Utah State for BYU will be like a walk in the park even though they are expected to be without starting QB Tanner Magnum. Those games toughened up this Mormon football program and have them ready to compete here this week. Utah State is coming off a lopsided win vs downtrodden San Jose State last time out, but it must be noted that Utah State has logged a lot air miles so far this season, and may finally have a down game. The Aggies travelled out to Wisconsin to begin their season, than all the way home to Utah to play Idaho St in week 2, and than back east to play Wake Forest and than back to San Jose State on the West Coast. Tired is the best way to describe the Aggies. Also Utah State is just  are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and have covered just 3 of their L/10 vs a non conference opponent. Aggies are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS L/9 as an underdog losing SU by an average of 23.7 ppg.

Play on BYU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Duke coach David Cutcliffe doesn't like that his Blue Devils are playing a Friday night home game against No. 14 Miami and has it made known publicly . I don't like the fact that Friday night football exists because it should be for high schools," Cutcliffe said to the Raleigh News & Observer. So he's not in a good mood and should have his team take it out on his opposition the Miami Fl Canes.Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fla.,last season, and now the smell of revenge is in the air. With Miami just 3-7ATS as road fav vs an undefeated team and 0-5 as chalk of 7 points or less Ill recommend we pull the trigger on the Blue Devils.

MIAMI is 4-14 ATS L/18 after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

 CFB Road favorites like Miami Fl- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game or less ), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 8-31 ATS L/25 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

 Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover 1 unit reg selection

So Texas is a favorite here based on reputation and past pedigree, but definitely not because their current form. This is a team that even their greatest high profile fan Matthew McConaughey could  not feel good about. Tom Herman has a great reputation , but he is still dealing with a  young gridiron group  dealing with a Charlie Strong hangover, and they will  take  a while to jell. So here on the road against a feisty Iowa State side, I'm betting the visiting Longhorns who are 1-4 ATS L/5 as conference road chalk will find it tough to get out of here with a cover. It must be noted that Iowa State is 8-0-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 16 points or less vs a below .500 team with Matt Campbells teams covering 6 of their L/8 as a home dog.

TEXAS is 2-12 ATS  L/14  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season and is 6-16 ATS    in road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game.IOWA ST is 9-2 ATS   after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.Campbell is 13-4 ATS L/17  in home games in the first half of the season .

Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover 1 unit reg selection

Rosen jumped out  to the top of the Heisman watch list after throwing for 3,668 yards and 23 touchdowns as a freshman in 2015 and than last season , the hopes for  UCLAs winning the PAC 12 and making a big Bowl appearance was erased because of the Rosen injury.  Now after his triumphant return to the gridiron which saw the Bruins stage a miraculous 45-44 comeback win vs Texas A&M after being down by more than 30 points at one point , the legend of Josh Rosen continues to grow. So far this season he's been lights out, and despite of losing a 48-45 heartbreaker last week in Memphis he must be respected here vs Stanford just because of the share fire power this Bruins team has. Yes, they're defense is their Achilles heel, and Mora's team  will give a load of points on a regular basis, to strong offenses, but their own offense will keep them in most games, as I am betting  will be the case this week vs the Cardinal who are not a confident group at the moment after coming off two straight losses, to USC and San Diego State.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Stanford  - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 15-42 ATS for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors during the past 10 seasons.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UCLA - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-19 ATS for a 73% conversion rate for bettors dating back 10 seasons.

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 1 unit reg selection

Notre Dame goes on the road for the 2nd week in a row. Last week , the band wagon crawlers came out of the woodwork , after the Irish defeated Boston College. However defeating this  Michigan State program will be a much harder conquest. The Spartans enter this game as the nations 3rd ranked D, and must not be disrespected on offense either as a deep set of backs could easily wreak havoc on a side, that may find it difficult  adjusting and dealing with a team that can actually move the ball, after facing Boston Colleges horrendous offense last week. It must be noted that Notre Dame has covered in just 2 of the L/13 games in this series, and the Spartans  DanAntonio  is 17-2-1 ATS L/20 at home taking on sides off a SU/ATS victory.

MICHIGAN ST is 15-3 ATS L/18 allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games.MICHIGAN ST is 17-4 ATS L/21 after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.

NOTRE DAME is 2-14 ATS  L/16.  in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game

CBB Road favorites like the Fighting Irish- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 7-31 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Florida Gators have beaten the Kentucky Wildcats 30 straight times. It does not seem to matter which team is better at the time of the meetings. With that said, and after watching Florida fail away on offense in their first few games of the season, they suddenly woke up with a 63 yard hail Mary pass to defeat Tennessee 26-20 last week, and  will now be sky high , entering this game  and I'm betting be jolted into getting some more points on the board With that said, the Gators defense is extremly solid and of the top tier variety and here against a Kentucky team that can be inconssitent with their attack a times , I'm betting their in trouble. The Wildcats have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as dogs of 10 points or less. With that said, I recommend we take the Gators in this spot. 

FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS    in road games after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers.

Florida to cover 1 unit reg selection 

I'm betting Florida Atlantics new HC  Lane Kiffin and company after having time to work with his new team is finally ready to make his mark. It takes time to have a team jell, and now with 3 games in their back pockets against the likes of Wisconsin and Navy and a blow out tune up win last week 45-0 vs Bet Cooke, Kiffins Owls behind 14 returning starters and a talented quarterback  will now be fine tuned to take out (cover) Buffalo as visitors. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 7-0 ATS L/7  in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic  - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 26-5 ATS for a 84% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons

.CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Buffalo - after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 9-30 ATS L/39 dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Florida Atlantic Owls to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week SMU was hyped up to play in state rivals TCU , and despite of a valiant effort still got blown out by DDs. Now in a letdown situation the Mustangs face a very staunch and experienced Arkansas State team that must never be underestimated. Arkansas State struggled last year to score despite of a top tier D,  but after HC Blake Anderson took control of the QBS in the off season  they look extremely cohesive now , and buoy the teams chances at repeating as and one of the top Sun Belt football programs as well as staying competitive today against a very explosive offense .According to my own power rankings the Red Wolves  have a 52% chance of pulling off the SU upset, and  a much higher probability of more importantly covering the spread.

SMU is 5-16 ATS  L/21  in home games after playing 2 straight non-conference games.

Home favorites like SMU - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after a loss by 17 or more points are 25-58 ATS L/83 L/5 years for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Arkansas State Red Wolves to cover 1 unit reg selection

Middle Tennessee State enters this game off a DD loss to Minnesota last time out by a 34-3 count, and are banged with key wide receiver, Richie James at less than 100% or expected to miss with a ankle injury as well as starting QB Brent Stockstill who still questionable with a shoulder injury. These key contributors will effect the cohesiveness of the Blue Raiders, making them fade material tonight vs a desperate Bowling Green team that needs a win badly after 3 straight losses.

BOWLING GREEN is 25-12 ATS  when playing against a losing team with a (Win Pct. 25% to 40% like Middle Tennessee State.BOWLING GREEN is 13-4 ATS L/17 after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread.BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 ATS L/6  in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Bowling Green - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 33-10 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.

Play on the Bowling Green to cover 1 unit reg selection

Air Force played valiantly against Michigan last week covering as DD dogs, behind a top tier defense, so going up against San Diego State side that has an upper tier D, won't be an issue. Meanwhile, San Diego State enters this tilt off a DD dog win vs Stanford, last week in a grueling close  game and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a Falcons side that has won 5 straight at home as underdogs. This game has the makings of an extremely close affair.

The Falcons have surrendered only one offensive touchdown in  their L/10 quarters of play, dating back to a 45-21 win over South Alabama in the 2016 Arizona Bowl.

Calhoun is 19-5 ATS L/24 when the total is between 42.5 and 49.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Vanderbilt enters this tilt as the top team in the nation in Scoring D and are No.2 in red zone D. there a top tier team that must not be disrespected as was the case last week when they defeated Snyders KState by a 14-7 count.  I know how strong Alabama is and their legendary status is sometimes hard to bet against, even getting this many points. With that said, this week I'm going against the main stream betting minds and talking heads and taking points with  a football program on the rise, in their most important game of the season. the Commodores dating back to last season have won 5 straight at home, and have upset two top 25 opponents along the way, and are a bankroll expanding 9-2 ATS L/11 as 15 point or more dogs. note: Nick Saban has covered on 2 of his L/7 as fav of 15 points or more between undefeated teams.

Despite of losing 14 straight in this series the  Commodores are 10-4 ATS in those games including 5-2 ATS L/7 as hosts.

CFB Road favorites like Alabama - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 11-37 ATS for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 seasons.

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like Vandy - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season 39-10 ATS L/49 for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 years .

Play on Vanderbilt 1 unit reg selection

Toledo is one of the best teams in the MAC, and deserve respect. But Miami is a national championship contender in my opinion, and also deserve a great deal of respect. After watching Toledo get torched by Tulsa last week for 51 points and 548 total yards , I feel Miami's offense will be ready to chew Rockets  up this week. But unfortunately for Toledo, they won't be able to reciprocate with their own offensive fireworks vs a very strong Hurricane D ,like they did vs Tulsa 's stand and  watch secondary and D last week. Toledo's coach agrees with my assessments , as here is a quote from Jason Candle who is concerned about Miami's speed.
Quote: "I see a team that's built on players from South Florida," he said. "Lot of speed. They play fast on defense. They're running to the football and getting to you with bad intentions when they do get to the ball.
"And on offense there's a multitude of guys that can score from anywhere. They've got a tremendous back in Mark Walton and some good receivers on the perimeter that can score it.
"I think the quarterback is going to continually get better as the year goes on." END quote:

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS L/6 off a home win by 17 points or more.MIAMI is 7-0 ATS L/7 after scoring 37 points or more last game . MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L/19 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game.

Play on Miami FL to cover 1 unit unit reg selection

North Carolina after losses to California and Louisville in their first two home games, will now be ready to get into the win column vs a inconsistent looking Duke football program, that had problems dealing with a downtrodden Baylor team last week. Here on the road in their ACC opener things promise to be a lot more difficult for Duke, and I won't be surprised if they lose straight up as favs. It must be noted that North Carolina has scored and increased their offensive output in each game so far this season, 30, 35, 53 points respectively and are now in a offensive groove and ready to compete. 
 

HC Fedora is 7-0 SU/ATS following a victory where his team has a below .500 record. ( The tar Heels smashed Old Dominion last week by a 53-23 count.  
 

N CAROLINA is 23-10 ATS  L/33 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game. 
 

CFB team (N CAROLINA) - terrible defensive team (440 YPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (280 YPG or less), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-7 ATS L/25 years for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 
 

Play on North Carolina to cover  1 unit reg selection

woUtah in my opinion is turning into a PAC12 championship contender, thanks to being able to generate more of a downfield passing game along with their already very viable run attack and what is becoming a defense that ranks among the nations toughest and most physical. I know Arizona can put points up in bunches, but their D despite of showing some improvements , still remains susceptible to allowing a ton of yards and a now in trouble vs a multi- dimensional attack like Utah owns.

Arizona ripped N.Arizona and lowly UTEP in their tow big wins, but against a decent team , Houston they lost by 19-16 count and were slowed on the ground. With that said, I'm betting Utah's vicious D, will be the difference maker here today and their ability to score from many angles makes them the right side tonight vs their hosts Arizona.

Arizona HC Rodriguez is 0-6 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game like Utah and were outscored by an average of 16.7 ppg. .Rodriguez is 1-15 ATS L/26 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games with average margin loss coming by 13.7 ppg. \Utah HC Whittingham is 10-2 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.UTAH is also 22-9 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) winning by a average of a TD a game.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 1 unit reg selection

Rocky Long has really put together a excellent football program at San Diego State, and really deserves a lot more respect than his team is getting from the lines-makers tonight. Meanwhile, Stanford despite of being a fine team, are in a huge letdown situation after being knocked out against USC last week and will find it difficult to get up off the proverbial matt(turf) here this week. San Diego State is a tough dog at home and have failed to cover only once their L/7 as hosts of 5 point dogs or more. Both these teams pound the ball on the ground consistently and both have stoppers on defense. I'm betting this is a grinding affair that will see getting  points being golden. Note: San Diego State limited Arizona State to 44 rushing yards and 1.4 yards per attempt.

The Aztecs have won 20 of their last 23 home games.

SAN DIEGO ST is 11-3 ATS  L/14 after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins .

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Stanford - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 14-40 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Mississippi in no way shape or form should be favs here, even against a rebuilding California program. Travelling from East to West for any North American team is difficult proposition especially for a side, like Ole Miss that has looked asleep at the proverbial wheel at times this season despite of their perfect record and may still be reeling with the shock of losing their coach because of sex scandal.

Overall the Rebs are 7-23 ATS L/30 road favs including 0-7 ATS L7 off 2 consecutive wins.

With the Bears new defensive schemes, and coaching philosophies , I'm betting scoring on them they may not be as easy as was the case in the recent past.

Take the points here with the California Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

Clemson had to face a very tough Auburn offense last week  winning by a 14-6 count, and now this week against a porous Louisville D, this will seem like a walk in the park. I have come to the conclusion that the Cards defense is of the Swiss cheese variety after watching a rebuilding North Carolina offense slice and dice them last week for 35 points on 401 yds and Purdue put 28 points on them the week before . I know a lot is being made of Heisman Trophy front runner LaMar Jackson of the Cardinal, who helped his team stay unbeaten by buoying the offense with 47 points in that above mentioned game, but this top tier college QB will really have his work cut out for him against an elite defense that has allowed a total of 9 pts in two game and I'm betting will come down to earth in this spot. Remember , folks, as great as Jackson is , he cannot play D, and that will be his teams downfall this week.

Play on Clemson to cover

The Commodores enter this game vs Kstate averaging 384 yards of total offense while giving up an average of 159 yards per game. They're averaging 122 yards per tilt on the ground and 261.5 through the air. Most important, the Commodores have not had a turnover.Quarterback Kyle Shurmur has completed 76.1 percent of his passes for 249 yards per game and seven touchdowns. This young QB is super intelligent , and plays within his limitations, making him a dangerous foe. Meanwhile, on the flipside  I know  KState's Coach (Bill) Snyder is one of the best in the business, but he's not perfect, especially on the road losing 3 of his L/13 non conference road games and 5 of his L/20 Sept road games. With my own projections estimating this game to be decided by a FG or a late score taking points here makes for a very viable wager.

VANDERBILT is 13-2 ATS  L/15 off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points KState - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 14-40 ATS dating 25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. Also CFB  home team Vanderbilt  - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 44-14 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. CFB  home team like Vanderbilt  - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 29-7 ATS for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa enters the Glass Bowl against one of the best teams in the MAC, Toledo, but won't be easily intimidated behind  a potent offense that put 66 points on the board last week.  It must also be noted that its never easy for a north American sports team to travel east to west over multiple time zones like Toledo did last week in a trip to Nevada. Now going against a fast and explosive Tulsa team, I'm betting the sledding will not be easy , as the Rockets will be a little Jet lagged and tired in this spot.

Golden Hurricane are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa  - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-5 ATS going back 10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB. road team like Tulsa - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-8 ATS L/38 for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Middle Tennessee State took out the Syracuse Orange last week 30-23 on the road,  and in the previous game , played a very good SEC team Vanderbiilt tough losing by a 28 -6 count. Now against a Minnesota side getting to many accolades after smashing a  Oregon State team with series issues, I'm betting they revert back to the norm and for Middle Tennessee State to  make a game of this and  even possible pull off a SU upset. In the Gophers previous game to last weeks road win, they barely squeezed by the Buffalo Bisons of the MAC at home by a 17-7 count as 21.5 favs, and things won't come much easier here. With that said, I'll recommend we take anything that resembles +8.5 to+10 .

MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS  L/7 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over.

Play on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection

Old Dominion may not be a big name school form a power 5 conference, but they are a viable underdog here against a rebuilding North Carolina program, that continues to exhibit very poor defensive abilities over the last few seasons.  Last season Old Dominion was 7-0 SU at home and must not be underestimated in what is their biggest game of the season . With the Tar Heels QB expected to be less than 100% this week with a ankle injury, I'm betting that  N.Carolina at 0-2 and losing the stats war by an average 167 ypg  has issues moving the ball with consistency , against a staunch Monarchs D , while their own D, will have problems stopping anything that can move.

N CAROLINA is 10-25 ATS L/35  after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game which happened against Louisville last week.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

TCU proved to me as long as they stay healthy they are going to be a juggernaut this season. Last week they owned Arkansas and were the more physical of both teams, winning a 28-7 decision . Now this week against SMU I'm betting we see an even more explosive effort vs a lower tier side that does not matchup well against them at all in almost aspects of the game.

TCU is 7-0 ATS   as a home favorite of 17.5 to 21 points since 1992 winning by an average of 31.1 ppg.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like TCU - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. are 40-13 L/53 for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. home team like TCU - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 29-7 ATS for a 81% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 years.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Looking at this game in a casual way will have many assuming that Nebraska will blowout N.Illinois  today in Lincoln. But N.Illnois has travelled well in the past and will not be easily intimidated by a team, that gave up 42 points to Oregon last week, and 36 points to lower tier  Arkansas State the week before. Nebraska was also hypoed for that last game vs the Ducks and will be in a natural let down spot  here. There are some definite defensive issues that have yet to be addressed , by the Huskers and I expect a Northern Illinois side that is averaging 433 yards of offense this season with a pretty even split  with their  ground and aerial attack behind  QB Daniel Santacaterina to do enough damage to stay within  the number.  It must also be noted that Northern Illinois is allowing only 17 PPG to opposing teams this season on the defensive side of the ball and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the home team here and make this closer than expected.
 
  N ILLINOIS is 9-1 ATS L/10  after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 37 points or more last game .N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.N ILLINOIS is 37-19 ATS  L/56 as a road underdog.

 Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone and his dog loves, the UCLA Bruins after their amazing comeback against Texas A&M in their opener winning a 45-44 freak show and followed that up with a easy win vs Hawaii and their dysfunctional defense. But now against a Memphis  program that has proven they can take down big programs in the recent past, I'm betting things won't come so easily for the Bruins as they now go on the road travelling from west to east , which is never an easy trek, especially with an early start time to deal with . The Bruins did not have much of an emotional letdown after their big comeback win in their opener, but now on a delayed reaction basis I expect they will deflate. It must be noted that the /Tigers are 16-4 in their L/20 home games SU, and are 15-3 ATS as home dogs facing a team off  consecutive wins including a perfect 6-0 ATS record vs non conference foes under the same perimeters. Also with UCLA looking ahead to the PAC 12 opener with Stanford, their attention won't be completely on this game. Note: (The Bruins are 0-6 ATS L/6 before facing Stanford)

UCLA is 1-8 ATS  L/9 after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB Road favorites like UCLA - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kansas lost last week to Central Michigan at home as favorites. Key mistakes finally saw them lose by a 45-27 loss in a game that was closer than the final score might indicate. Now this week as dogs on the road vs another MAC team I'm betting they have a good chance at covering. With Ohio looking forward to a big revenger against a strong E.Michigan team next week, I expect Kansas to catch Ohio napping like they did last season when they pulled off an upset win against the Texas Longhorns. Kansas has cashed their L/2 against MAC opponents as underdogs.

Play on Kansas to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Falcons (1-0) bring a seven-game winning streak into The Big House to play Michigan this week. Meanwhile, Harbaugh's Wolverines are 2-0 and looking strong. But Air Force behind their option offense, provides big problems , yes even for good coaches, especially when these top coaches have not faced these types of attacks regularly. The Falcons know how to put up points in bunches, as they never scored fewer than 27 last season, when they finished 10-3 and beat South Alabama in the Arizona Bowl. They have exceeded the 40-point mark four times during their winning streak,, and will do some damage again today against Harbaughs tough D, making them viable underdogs in this spot. Note: Air Force has won six straight games against non-conference opponents and have cashed 4 straight on the road vs non conference opposition of 17 points or more. With Harbaugh eyeing his Big 10 opener against Purdue, I'm expecting the old ball coach won't have his full attention here. Michigan is 0-7 ATS L/7 before facing Purdue.

AIR FORCE is 20-8 ATS  L/28 after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.MICHIGAN is 16-35 ATS  L/51 after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games .

CFB Home favorites like Micigan - off a home win by 17 points or more, in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season are 11-33 ATS L/44 for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona beat N.Arizona in week 1 by a 62-24 count and then lost a hard fought 19-16 battle vs Houston last week. Meanwhile the UTEP Miners fell to 0-2 on the season after being crushed by the Rice Owls 31-14, this past Saturday. UTEP struggled offensively throughout the game which is not a good omen for their chances against a Arizona offense that will find this game like a walk in the park after facing a stout Cougars D last week. Note: UTEP has allowed an average of 43+ ppg in two tilts, and with a less than cohesive offense, that is now without  key RB Aaron Jones who declared for the NFL draft and left the program. , things won't get better for a side that is ranked 126th in the nation in offense.  
 

UTEP is 1-8 ATS L/9 in September games with the average score ringing in at 43.1 to 19.7 ppg for a average margin of defeat coming by 23.4 ppg. UTEP is 2-11 ATS  L/13 in the first half of the season  with their opponents averaging 40.1 ppg and with them scoring just 17.4 ppg.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Arizona  - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 43-14 ATS dating back 24 seasons.

Play on Arizona to cover 1 unit reg selection

South Florida has not looked all that good in their first two games , maybe its the Charlie Strong effect, just maybe the Bulls over achieved last season, and now we expect more of them. In their first game, they were down to San Jose State 16-0 before coming back for the win, and vs Stony Brook were down 10-7 at the half before storming back. Last week their game against UConn was cancelled and instead of the rest doing them well, I'm betting it makes them rustier than they have already looked. Meanwhile, Illinois looks to be making progress under the tutelage of Lovie Smith, and must not be disrespected here in this spot. It must be noted that Illinois has covered 4 straight in their L/4 as 14 point or more dogs to a non conference foe. Meanwhile South Florida is 0-5 SU in the programs history vs the Big 10 with ACC teams going just 3-23 vs the Big 10.

CFB road team like Illinois - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 126-72 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week New Mexico came out flat against New Mexico state and fell behind by a 30-5 count, before coming back with 23 4th Quarter points, and than failing to tie it on a two point conversion. It was a valiant effort by a decent team, and now they will be primed to come out here , and upend a Boise State football program off a heart breaking OT loss to Washington State loss last time out and now in a huge emotional let down situation. With Boise State just 1-10-1 ATS L/12 at home as favs, and New Mexico showing heart as DD, conference dog going 12 -2 ATS L/14, we have value here . I know that Boise State whooped the Lobos last season at visitors to Albuquerque, by a 49-21 count, but New Mexico's HC Bob Davie is 11-2 ATS as a DD MWC underdog with revenge.  With that said, I'm betting on the Lobos staying close enough to cover here, and for the Broncos Bryan Harsin to fall to 0-8 ATS in his L/8 conference home games.

NEW MEXICO is 12-2 ATS  L/14 off an upset loss as a home favorite. NM has covered 3 of their L/4 visits to the Blue Carpet.

CFB Home favorites like Boise State  - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are 49-93 ATS dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection

San Diego State must not be disrespected here vs a Arizona State team that looked weak defensively in week 1 vs New Mexico State, winning 37-31 but were outscored 18-7 in the last quarter. The Aztecs  have  won 22 of its last 25 games SU. while Arizona State has 1 victory over a team with a above .500 record since beating rival Arizona on November 21, 2015.

Rocky Long is 5-2 as a dog vs PAC12 opponents, while HC Graham of the Sun Devils is 1-4 ATS L/5 vs the Mountain West.

SAN DIEGO ST is 10-2 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game.

Take the points with San Diego State 1 unit reg selection

Stanford (1-0) well rested and fresh returns to action from a one-week layoff after opening the season Aug. 26 in Sydney, Australia, with a explosive one sided beat down of Rice. The Cardinal seeks to win a fourth straight against the Trojans (1-0). Meanwhile, USC had some early problems against Western Michigan but pulled away late for a DD win. Their D, especially the run D, looked a little porous allowing a whopping 263 yards and will be part of what I'm betting will be their failure to cover tonight vs Stanford.

 The Stanford Cardinal have a defense that I'm betting rivals that of Alabama. Call me crazy for saying that , but this group is razor sharp and extremely physical and will be the difference maker here today vs the USC Trojans.

Winning on the road is a key theme for the Cards.The Cardinal have taken 3 straight from the Trojans, and 7 of the last 9.Dating to 2007, the Cardinal have won four of five games at the Coliseum. USC is undefeated at the Coliseum since Helton took over as head coach midway through the 2015 season -- but also winless against Stanford at 0-2.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both teams are off lopsided easy wins in their week 1 matchups. Auburn lost a hard fought tilt to the Clemson last season by a 19-13, count , but I' betting their even better this season, and  are going to be hyped up about taking down the defending champs and get revenge for their loss to  last season. I'm betting that this game will be hard fought and that getting points will be golden for a team I have pegged as the most improved in the SEC this season.

AUBURN is 13-4 ATS  L/17 in road games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards.AUBURN is 34-19 ATS  after gaining 275 or more rushing yards. Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games

CFB Road underdogs like Auburn - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 40-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors dating back 10 seasons. Also CFB  Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Clemson - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 38-12 ATS for a 76% conversion rate for bettors over a 10 year period. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Auburn - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 40-11 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection

Nevada is getting a lot of accolades for staying close in a game vs Northwestern last week even though, their defense allowed over 500 yards and the home team to convert 26 first downs. If they are as porous this week, as last, which I think they will be, I'm betting their in big trouble vs the MACs best team. Last week against Northwestern the Wolfpack  only controlled the ball offensively  for just  21 minutes and turned the ball over twice during that game. Needless to say, from my standpoint , Nevada's performance was more smoke and mirrors than a top tier effort like it was being painted. Meanwhile, Toledo despite of starting slowly last week in a win, looked to put things together in the 2nd half, on route to a  blow out 47-13 victory and will now use that momentum to take down a over rated opponent in this spot. The Rockets had 24 first downs and 553 total yards in the game. Rinse in repeat here for a DD margin of victory.

Toledo 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.TOLEDO is 6-0 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.TOLEDO is 10-2 ATS L/12 after playing a game at home.TOLEDO is 21-6 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.

Play on Toledo to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rebels fell to Howard as a 45-point favorite at home last time out, the worst point spread loss in history. Meanwhile, Idaho took  an FCS opponent, notching a win vs  Sacramento, 28-6.  As far as the Howard/UNLV games goes, Howard must not be disrespected, as their HC Mike London  won a National championship with Richmond, and was able to recruit a very strong QB in Caylin Newton who is the brother of Cam Newton. The  UNLV D, was ugly, and the team on a whole. was caught looking ahead to greener pastures, which was in hindsight a mistake, that now has them  embarrassed and ready for redemption this week in Idaho. UNLV can score in bunches, and that is why they have a chance this week to stay very close. Last season these teams played each other tough, with Idaho pulling off a 33-30 win, and I'm expecting another hard fought battle this week, with the points in my humble betting opinion ending be golden.

IDAHO is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when the total is greater than or equal to 70.IDAHO is 8-20 ATS  L/28  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. HC Petrino is 6-15 ATS  L/21 after playing a non-conference game .

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Idaho - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 14-41 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.CFB  Road underdogs like UNLV  - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 40-14 ATS L/54 opportunities for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UNLV to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last year TCU lost 41-38 to Arkansas in Double OT as 10 point home favs, despite of out stating the Hogs 572-403.  Now this season with revenge on board I expect Gary Andersons troops to be hell bent on laying down some pay back. I know Anderson and TCU had a losing season in their last campaign , but the two times he had losing seasons , he came back with 12 -1 and 11-1 marks. Last week they won 63-0 vs Jackson State and now come in rocking and rolling and in a vengeful mood. Note: Game 2 Chalk off a shut out win like TCU are 7-0 ATS L/7 winning every time by DDs.

Bielema is 0-6 ATS   in home games after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game which happened vs Florida A&M last week in a 49-7 win.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Indiana showed me a lot , when they played one of the best teams in the nation (Ohio State) very tough, this past Thursday night and were actually tied in third quarter before things got away from them. After that major tune up against a top tier team, I'm betting this game against Virginia will be like a walk in the park.

Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

CFB home team like Virginia  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning are just 15-45 for a go against conversion rate for a 74% for bettors. Also CFB home teams like Virginia  - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 6-22 SU during the L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Michigan travelled out to the west coast last week to play the USC Trojans. New Head Coach Tom Lesters team played valiantly for a while, before getting beaten by 49-31 count . Now tired and in an emotional letdown scenario the Broncos, go against a DAntonio coached Michigan State team, that has a lot to prove after last seasons dismal results. The Spartans looked determined a 35-10 beat down of Bowling Green last week, and get the nod to bring home the cash to their backers this time around as well.

MICHIGAN ST is 26-9 ATS  after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game .

CFB Road underdogs like Western Michigan- after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 18-46 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Mich State - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 34-10 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Mich State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection

Iowa defensively  smothered what was supposed to be a offensively explosive Wyoming offense last week in their first game a 24-3 win. Now here in week 2 I expect that same D, will stand tall and be the catalyst for a win in cover vs instate rivals Iowa State . Iowa has taken the two most recent meetings in this series conclusively by scores of 42-13 last season and 31-17 in 2015. I'm betting on another easy win here today.

IOWA is 17-5 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less and  8-1 ATS  L/9  in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest.

CFB home teams like Iowa State - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 6-22 SU L//28.

Play on Iowa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Coach Fedora and the Tar Heels, have almost always shown a lot of defensive deficiencies, as was the case last week in a loss to the California Bears by a 35-30 count. Thanks to first round pick QB Mitch Trubisky and some good wide receivers those defensive deficiencies were masked by simply outscoring their opposition. That won't be the case this season, as the gunslinger is now in the NFL and much of the offense is being reassembled. Last week the Tar Heels simply made  a lot  of  mistakes on both sides of the ball, throwing two interceptions, losing a fumble and giving up big plays on defense and this week vs a hungry Lousiville program things will only get worse in my humble betting opinion.

Louisville has covered the L/3 meetings in this series.

CFB home team like N.Carolina  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 31-6 ATS L/37 for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors.

Play on Louisville to cover 1 unit reg selection

Ohio destroyed a lower tier Hampton program by a 59-0 count last time out, hardly breaking a sweat in the process. Meanwhile, Purdue lost a grueling hard fought battle, to Louisville in their first game of the season, by a 35-28 count. That effort will now have them in an emotional letdown situation which will translate I'm betting into a muted effort that might actually see them upset by a pretty good MAC side.

OHIO U is 6-0 ATS L/6   in road games in non-conference games.PURDUE is 1-10 ATS  L/10  in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest .

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, team that had a winning record last season are 36-10 ATS over the L/25 seasons. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 40-11 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.  CFB  home team like Purdue  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning are 15-42 ATS dating back 25 seasons.

Play on Ohio U to cover 1 unit reg selection

With UCLA's QB  Josh Rosen healthy again, the Bruins will be a dangerous foe for all comers. Texas A&M is a fine team, but in games that are expected to be close recently they have not performed all that well going just 2-11 ATS L//13 as a dog of 7 points or less. Last season Sumlin and company up ended UCLA 31-24 at home in their opener, but it must be noted that the Aggies HC is just 4-13 ATS facing a team with revenge. Tonight I expect Mora 's Bruins to be hell bent on payback while getting their mojo back.  

 UCLA is 28-14 ATS L/42 in home games in non-conference games. TEXAS A&M is 15-35 ATS   L/50  as a road underdog. 

CFB home team like UCLA - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are a bankroll expanding 73-35 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 1 unit reg selection

No. 21 Virginia Tech and No. 22 West Virginia Square off  at FedEx Field in Landover this Sunday night. Both these long time rivals will have new starting QBs, but one side I'm betting has the egde.That team in my betting opinion is the West Virginia Mountaineers with Florida transfer Will Grier under center . He was 6-0 as a starter as a freshman before testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, subsequently suspended, and then transferring. This kid has the goods and is a top quailty performer and will be supported by the Big 12's leading rusher from last season Senior Justin Crawford and a a deep core of powerful backs .   Meanwhile, VTech will start a red shirt freshman, in Josh Jackson, who will I'm betting experience some jitters here right out of the gate and take time to acclimate to game speed. Yes, I know West Virginia is retooling this season on many fronts, but the pipeline of talent is solid and may surprise a lot of the pundits. TodayI'm betting they stay within the number and get us the cover.  

Vtech is just 2-9 ATS L/11 an non conference favorites of 3 pts or more and have failed to cover in 5 of their L/7 neutral site games. 

CFB team like VTech - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 5-30 ATS L/35 opportunities for a go against conversion rate of 865 for bettors. .

Play on the W Virginia Mountaineers to cover  1unit reg selection

No. 1 Alabama plays No. 3 Florida in the Chick-fil-A Classic on Saturday night in what has been called the biggest opening game ever in college football. Alabama, bidding for a perfect 15-0 season, lost 35-31 to Clemson on a last-second touchdown in the College Football Playoff title game last January after a 24-7 victory over Washington in a semifinal pairing at the Georgia Dome and showed many of us that the Tide may have turned (pardon the pun). Now enters Jimbo Fisher's Florida State  that is 30-5 SU in non conference battles, and 9-1 SU vs the SEC. Meanwhile, Alabama the No.1 ranked team in the nation, has some interesting ATS numbers attached to their status, as these top ranked teams are just 16-15-1 ATS in openers,  and just .45-65-1 ATS when not listed a DD favorites.  Nick Saban the Tides formidable HC is also just 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS in openers vs non conference competition as single digit favorite.

Florida State to cover

South Alabama to cover vs Ole Miss - The Sex scandal that lost head coach Hugh Freeze his job, has this Ole Miss program reeling.  That’s not a good omen for a team that also lost 5 of their L/7 games last season.  Here today vs a South Alabama Jaguars side that  pulled an  upset at Mississippi State in last year's opener, anything is possible. Coincidentally the Jaguars also upset a very good San Diego State program  last season, as DD home dogs, so this is a team that is not easily intimidated and thrives in the underdog role.  

S ALABAMA is 10-2 ATS in road games in September games since 1992 and is 14-3 ATS in road games in the first half of the season since 1992.

Play on the South Alabama to cover 1 unit reg selection

. The UMass minutemen are sure to be jet lagged and an emotional let down state after playing in Australia last week while losing to Hawaii with under 1 minute left on the clock (38-35).  Now they go against a tough head coach Joe Moglia (Coastal Carolina) who owns a magnifcent  51-15 SU record in five years , including a 10-2  record last season – with both losses coming  by a single point! The  CC offense has averaged at least 34 PPG every season under Moglia and are expected to be offensively effecient this season, vs one of last seasons worst Ds. I know the Minutemen has 17 returning starters , but like I have said, before that not neccisarily a good thing considering their continued futility. 

Play on Costal Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Troy enters this game with what might end up being their best  team ever, as 16 solid starters (10 on offense) return along with a boatload of under rated talent. With their Blue Carpet opponents the Broncos  returning QB Brett Rypien QB and his best WR Cedric Wilson, many think the Broncos will remain a force, but I disagree with this assessment as much of offense is now departed, and 4 key tacklers on D are now also gone. The pipeline of talent that Chris Peterson left behind is also now mostly gone,  and I'm betting HC Harsins team won't be as formidable, which could see Boise State face a drop off this season. It must be noted that the Broncos have failed to cover 16 of their L/25 and re just 1-10 ATS L/11 at home. With Boise State eyeing Washington State in their next game, the Broncos may not as focused in a dangerous opponent in their opener. Troy has covered 5 of their L/7 opeing games as underdogs and have covered 8 of their L/12 as a non conference DD pup. BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS   as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Troy to cover 1 unit reg selection 

There is just not enough respect being shown to Jim Harbaugh and company this week vs Florida. Yes, I know Harbaugh has hardly any key returning starters back, but this guy is a behemoth recruiter and has a boatload full of talent in the pipeline and is now ready to reload. Meanwhile, despite of the accolades the Gators are getting, I'm still not sold on their ability to move the ball behind QB Jim McELwain or any of the other Gator Qbs. Also with a key suspension to WR Antonio Calaway, the Gators are at a disadvantage both mentally and physically as is evident, by the rash of suspensions the team will suffer from this Saturday. Florida has also shown a propensity to implode against top tier opposition, while Harbaugh has proven he can be trusted as a favorite of 7 points or less winning 6 of 7 opportunities ATS and is a perfect 7-0 SU. Harbaugh is also 6-0 SU/ATS as chalk of 7 or less before game 6 winning su by an average of 24.5 ppg. Michigan is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 meetings in this series and get the nod again this week on a neutral field.

Play on Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

Wyoming to cover vs Iowa  

Wyoming QB Josh Allen is  a projected first-rounder in the 2018 NFL draft and I'm betting his offensive talents will be even more explosive this season than last years 28 TD performance. Yes, The cowboys D was bad last season but with Scott Hazelton now running the defense things should be much improved. Today against an Iowa football program that was nearly dead last in the FBS (121st) on offense last year, those problems may not seem as hightligted today. It must be noted that Iowa has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 non conference tilts as favorites of 14 points or less and were only 4-3 SU at home last season. The Cowboys have also covered 5 season openers as underdogs. WYOMING is 6-0 ATS L/6 when the total is between 49.5 and 56.  

Play on Wyoming to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Horns start a new error today as HC Tom Herman takes over the reigns for the Texas Longhorns. You can bet he will have his team ready for a win in merciless fashion today as he makes sure his team gets of on the right foot. I know Maryland had a Bowl bid season in 2016, but I was not all that impressed by them and were a team that was out yarded by 49 ypg and finished their season losing 2 of their L/9 games and lost and failed to cover 5 straight games vs FBS opposition on the road last season losing by just under 23 ppg.  

Herman is 9-0 SU and 7-0 ATS L/9 non conference games. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas- excellent offense from last season - averaged 425 or more total yards/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 30-8 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Also CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 ATS over the same time perimeters for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

Muncie, Indiana is just 170 miles away from Champaign, Illinois , and this is not much of a road trip for the Cards.Ball State is now a very underrated MAC East that is going to make some noise this season. It’s the second year for head coach Mike Neu, and he’s got a team that despite of having a rebuilding tag on it,  must be respected behind second year starter QB Ryan Neal and RB James Gilbert 1332 yds, 12 TDS. Meanwhile, Illinois is going to have a very inexperienced team, and have a new starter under center Chayce Crouch who will take over for former Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith. Illinois only averaged 19.7 points per game in 2016, ranking  at 122nd in the nation and getting points on the board will be a problem again here this season. I'm betting the Illini inability to move the ball consistently will be their downfall today. 
 
Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten and have covered 4 straight non conference games..Fighting Illini are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. MAC. 
  
BALL ST is 17-4 ATS L/21 as a road underdog of 7 points or less .ILLINOIS is 12-26 ATS L/38 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

Ball State to cover 1 unit reg selection  

BC defensive front I'm betting will be dominant here in the opener vs N.Illinois and control their opponents offensive line. Both teams have been trying to move forward and get more explosive offensively, but the key factor here today will be the ability of Boston College to stop cold the N.Illinois run game, thus rendering the Huskies ability to spread the field and have an effective pass attack. Both teams should be subdued offensively, but BCs superior top tier D, will be the difference maker. 

Play on Boston College to cover 1 unit reg selection

Head coach Todd Graham,  of the Sun Devils is on the hot seat and to has show his detractors that he has the answers to some ugly questions about the stability of his defense and his ability to keep track in the talent laden PAC12. This in his opening game vs New Mexico state, I expect he makes sure his team leaves everything on the field. Yes, I do expect the  Aggies will do some scoring behind RB Larry Rose III and some talented receivers, but I also expect the Sun Devils D to be improved and to stifle the Aggies at key junctures of this game. In the end I 'm betting the Arizona States offense as the game progresses will swallow up the Aggies soft secondary and pass rush D, like a hungry desert snake and pull away for a lopsided victory and cover the spread.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Arizona State - terrible defense from last season - allowed 6.1 or more yards/play, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Ohio State Buckeyes enter this game having beaten the Indiana Hoosiers 22 straight times, but the line for this game seems a little bit over blown, and their is a line value edge in taking the underdog.


The Buckeyes have failed to cover 6 of their L/8 as road favs of 23 points or less while the Hoosiers have covered 6 of their L/8 at home as double digit underdog as well as 20-1 SU L/21 home openers. Also road chalk of 20 or more points are just 0-6 ATS L/6 season openers. It must also be noted that Indiana has covered 6 straight in this series, and are an under rated Big 10 team with an above average D. With Oklahoma on board for next week, I'm not sure that Urban Meyer will have his troops leave everything on the field and probably be content with a victory as he irons out some early season kinks.

Indiana University coach Tom Allen knows the challenge his team faces Thursday night.
"Biggest home opener in the history of our program," Allen said. "I've know I've said that many times, but it is what it is, That's exactly the situation we find ourselves in."

With that said look for Indiana at home to come out here and play for respect on the national stage.

Play on Indiana to cover 1 unit reg selection

Allianz Stadium - Sydney Austrailia

Minutemen dropped 46-40 decision at Hawaii last year…Rainbow Warriors’ quarterback Dru Brown passed for 311 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions, and now gong into his second full year as a starter I'm betting he will be even smoother vs a Minuteman secondary that had only 4 interceptions all season long.

Meanwhile,  the Minutemen return seven offensive starters from last year’s team that compiled a ugly 2-10 record and nothing looks like it going to change this season , with core of the offense back , and doing what it does best and that is struggle to move the ball. Hey.I know Hawaii's D, is a lower tier group, but I expect they will do enough to fluster and easily frustrated Umass group. Yes, I also know the  UMass defense returns 10 starters but that's also hardly a good thing, considering how horrendous they were last season.

The difference maker here today, will be Hawaii's superior QB Brown, and the late start time  of 6:00 pm et which will screw with the UMass teams internal clock as they travel half way around the world for this tilt. Meanwhile Hawaii is virtually a hope skip and a jump from Australia and will feel no jet lag or time change issues.

Warriors 7-0 ATS season openers.HAWAII is 22-9 ATS  L/31 in the first two weeks of the season.

Hawaii to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Oregon State was playing at higher level by the end of the 2016 campaign. The Beavers finished Coach Gary Anderson’s second year with victories over Arizona and Oregon and must not be underestimated today vs Colorado State side that will opening a new on campus stadium.  I know the Rams have a lot of key offensive players returning, but unlike many others I'm not all that impressed , and feel their over rated, especially outside of the Mountain West Conference. 

I'm betting the Beavers Running back Ryan Nall will be the centerpiece of the offense today, and despite of a uncertain QB situation, the Beavers will be able to do some damage downfield via play action , vs a average at best secondary. As a sophomore last season Nall rushed for 951 yards and 13 touchdowns and should be even better this season .The defense improved during year two of the Coach Anderson era and Oregon States  goal will be to shore up the run defense which looks achievable. 

 Andersen is 20-8 ATS L/28 as a road underdog and  is 24-11 ATS L35 in non-conference games . 

OREGON ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in games played on turf . 

I respect coach Anderson a lot, and like the way he is rebuilding this Oregon State side. With that said, I'll take his PAC 12 team to get us the cover here on the road in week 0.  

Play on the Oregon State Beavers to cover

Clemson's  Deshaun Watson rolled up 478 yards and directed the Tigers to 40 points in last season's national championship, and now he is even more experienced and primed to get a crack at a national championship. Clemson carved up Alabama with 10 plays of 20-plus yards last season and were able to take advantage of the Tides percieved invinciibility. Meanwhile, Clemsons D, is even better in my opinion this time around, and now that their key offensive play caller /corodinator Lane Kiffin is now with Florida Atlantic, it becomes problematic for the the Tide. Look for Alabamas ture freshman QB Hurt to unexpectedly struggle and continue a long list of freshman QBs to fail to bring home a championship ,  as No true freshman quarterback has led his team to the national championship since 1985 (dating back 32 yrs). I actually believe that Clemson has a shot at a SU win here, but taking the points is the far better investment option.

CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS L/9  vs. top tier  teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season.CLEMSON is 31-14 ATS L/45 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. HC Swinney is 8-0 ATS L/8  in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

College Football Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) - excellent offensive team (440 YPG or more) against a team with a good defense (280 to 330 YPG), in non-conference games is just 10-32 ATS dating back 10 seasons.

Play on the Clemson tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

In games like this defense wins out over offense. Look for the Tigers top tier D, and their abilty to run the ball, to slow down the Sooners explosive offense. 

OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a neutral field favorite over the last 3 seasons losing SU by almost 10 points per game. 

Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection 

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

According to my own stats and numbers and power rankings USC is the most under rated team in the country. I do acknowledge, that Penn State got progressively better this season, and showed a great deal of tenacity when going down early to Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship game, before coming back for the win. But allowing a sometimes pedestrian Wisconsin side to light them like they did, for 31 points does not bode well for their chances against a explosive USC offense that is also bolstered by a  solid defense,  that allowed top tier Washington Huskies just 13 points in a 26-13 road win. HC Franklin, of Penn St is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better)

USC is 7-1 ATS and on a perfect 6-0 ATS run as a favorite this season.USC is 9-2 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.

Play on USC to cover 1 unit reg selection 

PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL - Univ of Phoenix Stadium - Phoenix, AZ

Alot has been made of Ohio States HC Urban Meyers 45-3 record with more than a week to prepare for an opponent, but what few are saying, is that Clemson handed Meyer one of those losses. 

 With that said, I expect QB Watson Heisman Trophy finalist who showed off his star abilities in last seasons  national championship game when he smashed Alabama's vaunted defense for 405 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air to once again be the catalyst for a Clemson cover .  Also look for the Tigers to use the  Northwestern successful blueprint that was used earlier this season vs Ohio States assumed to be  dominant secondary. On D, Im betting a Clemson side, that had 46 sacks (2nd in the nation) to give Ohio States offense enormous trouble.

HC Swinney of Clemson  is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season and is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

Play on the Clemson  TOP SELECTION - Bowl Game of the Year

BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL
Louisville vs LSU 
According to my power rankings this game is as close to a pickem as you can get, thus getting points with Louisville makes for a strong wager in my opinion. The Cards were deflated towards the end of the season, but must not be underestimated here, as they look to get back some respect from a college football world that no longer thinks they were capable national contenders in the first place. 
LOUISVILLE is 11-1 ATS L/12 in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite which happened in their L/ game of the season, vs Kentucky.Petrino is 21-9 ATS L/30 in road games in games played on turf .

Play on Louisville to cover 1 unit reg selection

TAXSLAYER BOWL - Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL
Kentucky vs Georgia Tech 
Gtech was highly inconsistent this season with their option offense, and will have their hands full with a SEC defense that has had time to prepare for them. Bob Stoops football program won 5 of their L/7 games, and also have a run game that can match the Yellowjackets attack. This ones going to be grinder, and Kentucky has the weapons to not only cover but steal a win. 
All teams where the line is +3 to -3 like GTecg - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games, in non-conference games are 26-5 ATS dating back to the 2006 campaign.

Play on Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ

The Air Force Falcons finished their season with an overall record of 9-3 and enter their Bowl game on an impressive 5-game winning streak and will ride that momentum into this tilt. Offensively, the Falcons were led by their rushing attack that ranked 3rd in the country,and will take advantage of a team that depends on their defense to be competitive but allowed and average of 36.7 ppg in their L/3 games. The Jaguars are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games overall

S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game by an average of 20.7 ppg. S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and 4-15 ATS L/19 in the second half of the season.

College Football teams like Air Force  - excellent rushing team (4.8 YPR or more) against a terrible rushing defense (4.8 YPR or more) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight game are 36-9 ATS L/45. 

Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection 

FRANKLIN AMER. MORT. MUSIC CITY BOWL - Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN

From a power ranking standpoint in a cross conference reference guide I have created for Bowl season, tells me a story of an under appreciated Nebraska side, that looked tired in the later part of the this season. Now rejuvenated I look for them to give an extremely inconsistent  Tennessee team a real run for the money in the Music City Bowl and get us the cover. 

Nebraska's HC Riley is 21-8 ATS L/29 when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.

All College Football teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Volunteers - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are just 7-31 ATS L/38 dating back to the 2011 campaign.

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 updte: Stanfords Christian McCaffrey expected to miss Friday vs. North Carolina ( Personal 

NC HC Fedora is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached .N CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS L/9 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

College Football teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Stanford - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are just 5-26 ATS dating back 10 seasons, for a go against conversion rate of 83%.

Play on the North Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN- TCU vs Georgia - 
It will be a battle of TCU's offense, which averages 461 yards per game, against Georgia's defense, which ranks 18th in the nation with 314 yards allowed per contest. I know TCU imploded towards the end of the season, with 4 straight home losses. but Georgia has shown they can implode at the worst times, such as was the case again Tennesse, blowoing a late lead and losing, and in this matchup, could have problems competing if TCUs offense is in a rhythm, which was also the case vs the Vols.
TCU is 12-3 ATS L/15 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return.HC Patterson of TCU is 20-10 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest . 
College Football teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Georgia - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games, in non-conference games are 5-26 ATS for a 84% conversion rate.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection

ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Im a big Bill Snyder fan , and will back his side here today, vs a downtrodden Texas A&M Aggies side, that had a disappointing year, after some great expectations. 

TEXAS A&M is 4-13 ATS L/17 when playing against a team with a winning record and 1-8 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game like Kansas State.TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8. Texas A&M HC Sumlin is 0-9 ATS L/10 off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival which happened against LSU last time out and 1-9 ATS L/10 against a top tier team with a win % of between .600 and ,750. 

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection