Both these teams Maryland and Illinois give up lots of yards on the ground and both have proven they can run the ball. Both will use their success on the ground to take advantage of each sides weaknesses. Look for this tilt to be a slow guiding affair with taking  the points ending up being golden.Illinois’ rushing attack has 200-plus yards in six of seven games and Im betting MJ Rivers who is expected to start to get more playing time starting this week  give the Illini a better passing attack which will make them competitive despite of their nasty defence. 

CFB  team (ILLINOIS) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by 175 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB home team SU (MARYLAND) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8  or more YPR) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.

Play on Illinois to cover 

The Jayhawks have not had a to success over the last few years, but they are playing better this season and are by far more competitive despite of their negative won loss record.The Jayhawks are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven contests as double-digit home dogs and look like viable picks here today vs a TCU team that struggles to score and is in an emotional letdown state after being manhandled in a DD loss to Oklahoma last week.. Also with anew offensive cooridnator and guaranteed starter at QB in Peyton Bender I look for the Jayhawks to put some points up on the board and actually cover this game.TCU is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 7-18 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

CFB A home team vs. the money line (KANSAS) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 42-20 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

CONNECTICUT is 1-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  home team (CONNECTICUT) - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 4-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Umass to cover 

Army is the real deal, behind top tier HC Monken and  even with starting QB Kelvin Hopkins out last week with an injury they took out a pretty good Miami O side 31-30 in OT. Now against another MAC team E.Michigan, I like their chances in what the lines makers expect will be a close game even if Hopkins is out again, as Sophomore Cam Thomas is more than able to guide this over powering West Point  running attack . It must be noted that the  Black Knights own the nation’s 2nd ranked ground attack averaging (318 YPG) and have a big time edge vs the Eagles’  key weakness which is their 111th ranked rush defense (216 YPG) .

ARMY is 6-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB home team (E MICHIGAN) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB favorites (ARMY) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 28-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover 

Since their loss to North Texas this rebuilding Arkansas football program has slowly become more competitive. This group is very closely knit, and the entire state of Arkansas is behind them here this week, in what is a winnable game, especially with QB Ty Storey expected back under centre. The Razorbacks have covered 4 straight for their backers, and once again look like a solid proposition here on their own field to cash a ticket for their supporters vs a Vanderbilt team that is last in the nation in red zone conversion rate. Vanderbilt is also s ugly 2-16 ATS L/18 in SEC road games.

Mason is 0-7 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return as the coach of VANDERBILT. 

Play on Arkansas to cover

 Louisville enters this game struggling mightily averaging just  20.4 points per game, while allowing 33.4 per game on defense and allowing opposition offences to roll over them and gain an average 416.1 yards of total per game.  I know Wake Forest is not much better defensively, but they can score more consistently and that will be the difference maker this eek, in a game that the Daemon Deacons have the ability to win straight up. 

LOUISVILLE is 0-6 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are just 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Utes, enter this game on fire as they are on a 3-0  run and scoring 40 or more points in each of those contests. I don't  know where this offensive explosion has come from, but I'm betting after the emotion involved in putting the pedal to the metal in 4 straight games starting with Washington State, which was their only loss, will now see them in a  emotional letdown down spot that could easily mute their output and attack, especially after mounting that massive comeback vs uSC last week. I know Chip Kelleys UCLA may not inspire bettors, but they are getting better, and have won two straight games and have the talent base to make  a game of this. 

UCLA is 14-3 ATS L/17 at home as a 6 point dog or more.  

CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 86%  go against conversion rate.

Play on UCLA to cover 

This tilt between Minnesota and Indiana will settle which  one of these teams will get a lower tier Bowl invite. Both these teams enter this game expected to play with back up QBs. But I like PJ Fleck at home, and dislike Indiana's consistent inability to find any kind of groove since starting their season 3-0. They did play Penn State tough last week, losing by just 5 points and actually out gaining the Lions, but it must be noted that INDIANA is 8-38 ATS  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game .

Also the Hoosiers inconsistent attack has even had difficulties vs teams with porous defences . Note:INDIANA is 0-8 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. 

  INDIANA is 2-9 ATS  when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings overall. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Mimai Fl despite of their talent just can't seem to get over the hump. Last season they failed down the stretch and now in their last game lost to Virginia 16-13 , behind a duo of QBs that just don't have a lot of flow right now, and its rubbing off on the team as a whole. I don't know if its because of the Canes tough training/practices or what it is , but this team looks pooched for the 2nd straight season. As a matter of fact a disturbing trend seems to be telling a repeat story, as Richt is 2-9 ATS L/11  in October games as the coach of MIAMI. 

Richt is  also 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MIAMI and is 8-21 ATS  after scoring 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached since 1992 

Meanwhile,BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-1 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and is 6-0 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Im betting Boston College has a better chance to win  then the public has decided, as the opening line was BC -1, and is now at 3.5. Im betting the lines makers were right in their opening assessments and if Im wrong, Im still betting the Eagles make a game of this  and get us a cover. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

Florida Atlantic enters this game as a wobbly home favorite, vs a LA Tech team that could easily upset them SU here tonight. Florida Atlantics HC Lane Kiffin has been making some questionable decisions this season, that have not paid dividends, and the team as a whole just don't look cohesive especially on defence and have been outscored 90-35 in the fourth quarter this season . Yes, the Owls do have a top tier QB in Chris Robison but he was hobbled last game, and if he plays will be less than 100% this week and on defence are still trying to mask the fact they are playing without their all time leading tackler, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who is injured. Florida Atlantic smashed Louisiana Tech last season the road by a , 48-23 count and now big time ugly revenge is on board. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS  in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.Holtz is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992.LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS  in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Holtz is a perfect 6-0 ATS as road dog in his career vs a sub .500 opponent like FAU. 

CFBroad team vs. the money line (LOUISIANA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (34 PPG or more), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 37-6 L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

These two teams are vying for first place in the Sunbelt eastern division. Appalachian State has  for a long time had a respected football program, and right now their on the fast track for a decent bowl invitation. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern despite of not getting the same accolades is no pushover and just like their opponents only have one loss on the season.  Georgia Southern lost to power house Alabama, and Appalachian State to Penn State in OT. 

What Im betting happens tonight, is that Georgia Southern will use their No. 5 overall  ground game that cranks out 276 RYPG average to hammer away all night on App States defense , while the absence of  the Mountaineers top tier  RB Jason Moore will be felt as they won't be able to respond with the same type of option attack. I don't know if Georgia Southern can come out of this with a win, but they will make a game of it here on their own home turf. Thus making getting points golden opportunity to cash a ticket.Lunsford is a perfect  6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field as the coach of GA SOUTHERN. 

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Both these teams are in 3rd place in their MAC divisions, but Ohio according to my rankings is the much better team, especially here on their own home field where they have averaged 48.3 ppg behind an explosive offense. Meanwhile, Ball State is scoring an average of just 16.7 ppg on the road and just don't have the guns to compete here 9 out of 10 times. With that said,  those look like viable odds for me to sink my teeth into . Also Ball State D is going down hill fast as they have allowed seasons highs in yards allowed in 4 of their L/5 overall, not a good omen coming in against this type of opponent.Neu is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of BALL ST ( Ball State 15.7 Opp 41.7) I know the line looks like a hook attempt here by the lines makers, but their value right uo and into the 13.5 point range according to my projections so I feel confident of laying odd numbered lumber here. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

UCLA finally got a win last week, after starting their season at 0-5. They beat what looked to be a sleepy California Bears team who was overlooking them by a a 37-7 count. Now they are magically being made more than TD favorite at home , in part because the hobbling and limping Khalil Tate is out with an ankle injury .  Which in my opinion contrary to mainstream thought is actually a good thing. Better to have a 100% healthy 2nd string QB ( Rodriguez) than a banged up pivot who depends on his mobility to to look as good as he does.Rodriguez, the son of former Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez, completed 20 of 38 passes for 226 yards coming off the bench vs Utah last week and a completed touchdown and should be even more fluent this week.

It must be noted that UCLA is just 1-8 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons so they are from viable chalk bets . UCLA is also just   2-10 ATS  in games when coming off a victory over the last three years and are also a ugly  0-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit win the last four seasons. UCLA is 3-13 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992. These are some nasty numbers, and Im still not sold on Chip Kelleys Bruins quite yet, and feel its to soon to be laying TD or more chalk in a conference game vs a team that matches up well against them according to my power rankings. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

Oregon is coming off a huge 30-27 OT win vs Washington last week, and now in a away game will be in a huge emotional letdown situation against a Washington State team that has the guns to take them out here at home. Note: Washington State is explosive passing team with its "Air Raid" offense under Leach. East Carolina graduate transfer Gardner Minshew is the top passer in the Pac-12 (averaging 403.7 yards a game) while completing 68.7 percent of his passes (215 of 313) with 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Strap on you jock straps fellas, this ride is going to get bumpy for the incoming Ducks. Cougars have won 10 straight at home dating back to last season, and have covered 8 straight in this series, and Im betting both streaks stay intact after the final whistle blows here tonight. 

Play on the Washington State Cougars 

 Old Dominion has done one thing right this season, and that is beat Virginia Tech. Other than that this team is completely inept and look like they are still dealing with the massive emotional hangover of that bizarre win. They put everything they had into that game, and now theirs nothing left in the tank. The Monarchs have lost two straight by DDs and took it on the chin last week,   42-20 vs Marshall, and gave up a pile of yards which does not set up well for them coming into this game as they are  0-10 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1999. 

OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

Huge letdown situation for the LSU tigers after upsetting the Georgia Bulldogs last week , which puts them at a disadvantage vs a Mississippi State that can light the board in a hurry. Add to that the Tigers have Sabans Alabama on board for next week, and you can see taking points here with a under appreciated opponent is a viable wagering opportunity. 

Miss State is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings, and have a good read on HC Oregeron as is evident by last seasons 37-7 beatdown of this same LSU program.

LSU is 3-13 ATS in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.

CFB road team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - off a home win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miss State to cover 

These two teams Im betting will embark on a all out war this week that favours the dog getting a boatload full of points .Don't get me wrong Clemson is a great team and Death Valley is a nasty place to visit if your an opposing football program, but NC State is highly under rated and more than capable of actually pulling off the upset this week. The last two meetings in this series were won by the Tigers by 7 point counts and another one score game is a high probability event that makes this a  viable wager in this spot. Both these teams are well rested off a bye week, but in the recent past that has not been a recipe for success from a spread perspective for the Tigers as they have failed to cover 4 straight times. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 19-2 ATS off a bye,  vs conference foes and have covered 15 of 16 when made underdogs.

NC State has covered 9 straight ATS as 2 TD or more dogs. NC  State is also 12-2 ATS as DD underdogs coming off a SU win.  

NC STATE is 6-0 ATS  after a 2 game home stand over the last 3 seasons.

CLEMSON has failed to cover 19 of their L/27  after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins and 13-29 ATS L/42 after 3 more straight conference wins.

CFBroad team (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on NC State to cover 

 There is no doubt that Umass can put points on the board in bunches as is evident by 49, 42, 42, explosions in their L/3 games. They won one of those games, and lost the other two vs teams that are also explosive offensively. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina despite improvement over last season, just don't have the guns to hang with this type of offence, and also own a inconsistent  defence that has allowed 42 points in back to back games.Look for Umass to bomb away on Coastal Carolina and for the visitors to punch back, but Im betting the bigger and more frequent shots will come from UMass. Knockout in the 4th quarter. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (MASSACHUSETTS) - average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 25-1 L/10 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors SU with the average margin of victory differential coming by 17.9 ppg.

UMass to cover 

Ohio has played a tough schedule, with hard luck losses to two very good football teams Cincinnati U and N.Illinois last week. On both occasions they blew late leads, and if it were not for those heart breaking defeats they would be 5-1 on the season, with Virginia being the only team to surprisingly manhandle them 45-31. HC Solich is a solid coach and he now has the opportunity to get his troops back in a winning frame of mind .With that said, look for this explosive Bobcats group on their own home field to now take out their frustrations on a very over matched in disarray Bowling Green team that fired their coach this week.  

Note: Bowling Green is allowing  47.76 ppg overall this season and a even uglier 57.7 ppg on the road. 

BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 seasons. BG 21.9  Opponent 51.7 for a +28.8 point differential. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

Virginia knocked off Miami U in a big upset last week, and after that the Cavs and their fans rushed the field like they had won a national championship. Thats what I call irrational exuberance at its best, and now the hungover Cavs will have problems facing a team that I have rated above them my power rankings . You have to remember this is the same Virginia team that crapped the bed earlier this season vs  struggling Indiana  football program and lost 20-16, so its not like their national championship contenders or anything. Meanwhile,Duke rebounded from its first loss of the season against Virginia Tech by surgically  dismantling the Yellow Jackets  option offense in a impressive looking 28-14 conference road victory. Im becoming a believer in the Duke football program that has beaten Army, Northwestern, Baylor this season and Im saying they have to be respected today on a TD or less line at home.

VIRGINIA has failed to cover 18 of their L/24 after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games.

CFBA road team (VIRGINIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 5-27 ATS. for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (VIRGINIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more against opponent off a road win are 2-44 SU with the average score differential clicking in at 21.4 ppg. 

Play on Duke to cover 

Before I get started Id like to say I acknowledge that Michigan has the better all round team in todays confrontation with Michigan State. But being a superior side does not guarantee a cover or even a win on any given Saturday, especially in a game between to long time rivals. Michigan State has also shown themselves golden  under D Antonio  tenure  going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU vs Harbaugh and the Wolverines and overall have cashed 10 straight in this series including 8 victories SU. Today I expect the Spartans No.1 ranked rush D, to be the difference maker as Wolverines QB Patterson who will be made one dimensional, which could easily see him make mistakes vs a front 7 that can definitely turn up the heat when motivated. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Boise is not as powerful as I expected them to be this season, and have been slightly disappointing to some degree, especially at home last time out losing to a banged up San Diego State squad 19-13. Laying this much lumber at home does not suit their current form and from a recent trends set does not favour them to cover in this spot, as the blue carpet hosts are just 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 lined home games and an equally dismal 4-18 ATS  in conference games as 21 or more point chalk. Meanwhile, Colorado State is picking up the pace of late after a slow start and have won and covered two straight as well winning the stats battle. The Rams have covered 6 of their L/7 on the road as 14 or more points and will be ready to avenge a 59-52 shootout loss at home last year the Blue Broncos.

COLORADO ST is 24-9 ATS L/33 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.

Play on the Colorado State Rams to cover 

Im sure Wyoming does not inspire a lot of betting backers, because of their sub par record and crappy offence. But one thing this team can do is eat up clock and slow their games down to a crawl via a slow progressive run game, and a defence that is highly under rated.  Note: WYOMING is 13-4 ATS L/17  as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points . I know Fresno State looked powerful this season with their only loss coming against Minnesota, but it must be noted that Wyoming owns a 8-0 ATS record as road underdogs of 23 or less points  vs opp coming off consecutive victories and are viable investment options in this spot.  With that said, Im betting Fresno State is getting to much respect here for beating a struggling UCLA side and  a defensively deficient Toledo team travelling from east to west , and that Wyoming actually maybe more of headache for them then what the home side might expect. 

CFB team (WYOMING) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 14-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

Ole Miss are weak 7 point favs here according to my calculations. Overall this Ole Miss football program have been poor road favs failing to cover 24 of their L/30 in that role. I know they put 70 points up on UL Monroe last week, but their will be a reversion backwards in their output here, and with their defence as atrocious as it is, I expect a Arkansas offence that put 31 point on the board vs Alabama last week do a lot of damage here today in what could easily be a straight up win. t

Arkansas is  10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in this series with Ol Miss of late , and are 6-1 ATS l at home and 6-1 ATS under dogs. the two most recent meetings in this series were decided by 4 and 1 point respectively. 

ARKANSAS is 21-8 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. ARKANSAS is 25-12 ATS off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival since 1992

OLE MISS is 0-6 ATS  off a home win by 17 points or more over the last 2 seasonsOLE MISS is 0-6 ATS  after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Middle Tennessee State have just won 2 straight as underdogs  vs Marshall and Florida Atlantic and being under rated again, and a good bet to cover and even win outright here today vs a Florida International  side they matchup well against.Meanwhile,  Florida International is being over rated because of big offensive explosions against nasty D, Ark Pine Bluff and Umass and despite of looking offensively cohesive do not matchup well vs a physical  Middle Tenn State side that has shown dominance in this series winning 5 of the L/6 meetings. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIDDLE TENN ST) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

A so called third string QB Purdy,  marched into Stillwater to face a pretty good  Okahoma State  football program last week and helped his team pull off a SU win as DD underdogs. This is just not any 3rd string QB, but one that threw for 7700 yards in his last couple of campaigns playing Texas High school ball and who was pursed by a lot of big name teams. After that big win I doubt very much Iowa State will be a in a letdown situation vs what is now one of favorites to win the Big 12 championship, especially here at home. This place will be rocking this week and so will Iowa States offence.

It must  also be noted that HC Matt Campbell playing as an underdog against opp like the Mountaineers coming off a SUATS victory is  11-1 ATS in conference games including a perfect 5-0 ATS at home.

IOWA ST is 11-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 8-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.Campbell is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach of IOWA ST.

W VIRGINIA is 0-7 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Washington (no7) is highly ranked, but Im not a true believer in them because of their lack offence as was evident last week in. lazy 7 point win vs a bad UCLA side. This week here on the road against the Ducks I won't be surprised if they are exposed by a under rated Oregon team that is well rested and off a bye and  will be primed to pull off a upset. Note: Oregon is 6-0 ATS L/6 with rest)

The Ducks are 113-23 SU L/21 seasons at home.

OREGON is 29-9 ATS  after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OREGON) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Oregon to cover 

This game features an explosive offensive team Ohio against a staunch physical defensive team with Northern Illinois. HC Solich is 9-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5  or less yards/play as the coach of OHIO U. Both these teams are undefeated in MAC play so expect this to be hard fought and closely contested with getting  points Im betting being golden.

Ohio has covered their L/4 trips to N.Illinois and won 3 of those game SU. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 47-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio to cover 

This version of Army is for real and a dangerous opponent as top tier teams like Buffalo U and Oklahoma  and Navy have already learned this season. A lot of old negative numbers showing Army as bad bets as road favs are now out dated as compared to the group HC Monk has assembled here at West Point this season.  I know San Jose State has played decently of late, at least from a competitive stand point, but Im betting their not built to handle Armys triple option attack and that they will get literally run over here today in a big way. San Jose State has given up a whopping 165 ypg on the ground this season. Im not a a long term proponent of constantly laying DD on the road, but some situations warrant such a wager and this is one of them. 

CFB Road favorites (ARMY) - after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 23-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential coming by 28 ppg.

CFBA home team vs. the money line (SAN JOSE ST) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 3-28 SU L/10 seasons with the average point differential coming in at just under 3 TDS/PA a game (20.9).

Play on Army to cover 

 Zips HC Terry Bowden has already seen his under rated team upset Northwestern this season  and then played Iowa State tough in as visitors losing 26-13 but covering as 19.5 point dogs and despite of some down efforts almost always seem on the edge of being better then advertised. I know they lost last week to Miami O in ugly fashion, but in the past they have shown an ability to bounce back  going 6-1 ATS as dogs when coming off a SUATS loss.Bowden is 15-6 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of AKRON.

Meanwhile, Buffalo  at 5-1 behind future NFL draft pick 6’7” QB Tyree Jackson (ranked 8th in the nation in TD passes) have looked strong this season in MAC play, but has some alarming numbers attached to their  stats tags when it comes to Red Zone Offense efficiency rankings –    Bulls are  ranked second to last which is interesting considering their offensive output. Meanwhile, the Zips are the leaders in red zone efficiency. With that said, from a matchup perspective, the Zips are viable underdogs in this matchup on this DD line. 

AKRON is 6-0 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.Bowden is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of AKRON.

Play on Akron to cover 

Iowa enters this game as being fairly highly rated in my power rankings within the Big 10 and gets the nod here as short road favorites vs a very inconsistent Indiana side  that is  just 2-10 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile,  IOWA is 19-6 ATS L/25 opportunities as a road favorite of 7 points or less . Iowa has owned this series of late with a record of 6-1 SU, and add to that  are also 7-0 ATS as conference road favorites of 15 or less points. Everything points to Iowa coming out of this with a win and cover. 

Iowa is 13-0-1 ATS L/14 as a road favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards covering by more than 2 TDs a game on average. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games are just 5-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover 

The Utes played a heck game vs Stanford last week and pulled off the upset as underdogs, but will now be in a huge letdown situation vs a Arizona team with a clutch QB at the helm Khalil Tate. With USC on board for Utah they may not have their heads completely into this game giving us room for a under appreciated Arizona team that has won 3 of their L/4 to get the cover  vs a side that has failed to cover 7 of their L/10 as 7 point chalk or more.

CFB Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are 119-64 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Arizona to cover 

Appalachian States offence is rolling with their lowest output (35 pts) coming against Penn State . Right now the Mountaineers look to be the class of the Sunbelt and have proven they can hang with teams like the Nittany Lions, and laying less than DDs with them looks like a steal . It's  never easy laying lumber with a road team in any sport and you have to do your due diligence which I have. This group of Mountaineers looks special indeed and as long as they stay motivated  Im betting Arkansas State does not have the needed fire power to cover this number vs a behemoth opponent. Appalachian State is also well rested which is a good omen here for us cashing a ticket, as they are 6-0 ATS after a bye week over the last 3 seasons. App State 39.5 Opponent 12.7

From a College Football wagering perspective we also have value according to current trends as listed below. 

CFB home team (ARKANSAS ST) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Appalachian State to cover 

Wyoming is not as bad as their record would indicate and have the type of D, that can slow down the potent offensive attack of the Warriors. The Cowboys have held two opponents to season low offensive outputs and are under rated here on this trip to Hawaii to play a team that defensively challenged and  is looking tired after putting up some serious flyer reward points this season. 

HAWAII is 0-10 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons which was the case vs San Jose State last week.

HAWAII is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Wyoming is 7-1 L/8 trips to paradise island.

WYOMING is 6-0 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons. 

The Hawaii  Rainbow Warrriors football program have been lousy favs in the past as is evident by their 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games as chalk, including 0-11 ATS the last eleven overall. 

CFBome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HAWAII) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 21-49 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

 Notre Dame is not a true 7 point favorite here on the road vs a well coached VTech team. Hey I respect how good the Irish have looked so far this season, but you have to respect  the Hokies as dogs here on their own home field.  Yes, Tech lost to Old Dominion a couple of weeks ago in perplexing fashion  but they did bounce back last week against a good Duke team in a 31-14 victory as underdogs. Backup QB Ryan Willis,  who was inserted after starting QB Jackson went down, was 17-for-26 for 332 yards with 3 TDs and 0 interceptions and must also be respected to keep his team moving forward this week.  Hokies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14  as a home dog.  Virginia Tech is 48-3 SU in its last 51 home tilts against non-conference opposition with only one defeat coming  by more than a touchdown. Lane Stadium will be rocking, so if I were Notre Dame I wouldn't come a knocking.

 VIRGINIA TECH is 14-4 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.

CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 14-44 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

After playing Alabama lat week this game  for UL Lafayette vs a struggling Texas State team will seem like a walk in the park. Another loss they suffered was to Miss State and a underrated Coastal Carolina and they must not be underestimated in their ability vs a much less talented group at like the Bobcats that are suppose to start a  freshman QB this week behind a inconsistent offensive line. The home team has not played anywhere near  the competition UL Lafayette has played and Im betting that will become evident here this Saturday. 

UL Lafayette is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series, with the last two showing 24-7 and 27-3 wins home and away.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference game are 43-16 ATS L/10 season for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 

A lot of pundits keep on betting on Kentucky not being the real deal. But after watching them a lot closer of late Im betting they are and won't go out here today without a fight vs Jimbo Fisher and company. The key to their ability to cover here will hinge on a defense that is  ranked 11th in the nation, allowing just 13 points and 288 yards per game. Thats not good news for Texas A&M QB Mond who struggled in a 24-17 win over Arkansas last week, going 17 of 26 for 201 yards. He threw two interceptions for the second straight game and is downgraded on my QB power rankings list.

KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats to cover 

HC Mullen’s took out the Miss State Bulldogs last week and are now an impressive improved 3-0 SUATS and have won the stats battle in those 3 games since losing to a strong undefeated Kentucky football program in Week Two. I know that LSU is perfect on the season, and playing really good football, but Mullens is a coach that knows how to deal with teams like the Tigers as he was 4-0 ATS vs LSU when he coached Miss State. Last season these teams took part in a 17-16 sleepers the SWAMP and Im betting on another close game today. Oregon has not done well in his career vs.750 SEC opposition like the Gators , garnering a ugly 2-13 SU in that role.

Play on Florida to cover

Wow what a crazy situation Clemson finds itself in. QB Kelly Bryant announced he was leaving the team after HC Dabo Swinney decided to start Trevor Lawrence against Syracuse. However, Lawrence I'm sure much to the delight of Bryant and family. was forced out of the Orange game with an injury and backup Chase Brice,  took over. Thats never good for team morale, but their overall talent got them through that game vs Syracuse , but just barely barely 27-23. That game was at home, but here on the road where the Tigers are 0-9 ATS L/10 as 18 point or more favs Clemson is in trouble. Wake is seeking some payback vs Clemson losing 28-14 last season. Wake is a money making 9-0 ATS  L/9with ACC revenge and are 6-0 ATS skein as double-digit home dogs.

CLEMSON is 13-26 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. 

Clemson is 0-12 ATS  as a road favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

CFB Road favorites (CLEMSON) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Wake Forest to cover 

 Texas is the only Big 12 Conference team that holds an all-time series lead against the Sooners (61-46-5). The last four meetings  in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less,  with the  Horns taking the advantage via a  a 5-0 ATS series make in the  last five meetings. Im betting on more of the same tough close action here again and for the home team to get us the cover behind a solid D, and capable offense. 

TEXAS is 7-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 10-2 ATS vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

Texas head coach Tom Herman is  11-1 ATS as an underdog, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with a above .500 record.

Play on Texas to cover 

Alabama has accumulated much of its big numbers vs patsies this season, with the one decent team they played being Texas A&M and that game was alot closer than the lines makers expected. I know Arkansas in their current form may not inspire bettors but this is still a proud program that despite of going through growing pains is capable of covering here at home in front of their own alumni. The promise their showing comes via a Defence, that has allowed their last 3 opponents seasons low offensive outputs including last weeks 24-17 loss vs TexasA&M covering as 19 point dogs.  It must also be noted that only 3 times since 1977 spanning 274 games have the Hogs lost by more than 36  points. Don't get me wrong the Tide are a behemoth opponent and more than capable of blasting a team like Arkansas, but Im betting the Razorbacks come out here and play this game like a national championship. 

ARKANSAS is 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.ARKANSAS is 20-8 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 31.5 or more points (ARKANSAS) - with 17 or more total starters returning are 52-22 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Eastern Michigans football program is one of the most under rated college football programs in the nation. They can't seem to get over the hump when its comes to notching big wins, and are off a triple OT loss last time out vsN.Illinois,  but what they have consistently done is be very competitive opponents thanks to a gruelling hardcore brand of physical football. Today against Western Michigan Im betting on a very closely contested battle that favours the visitors to cover or pull off the SU upset. 

E MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons and are 11-1 ATS L/12 as road underdogs in tis series vs Western Michigan.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Georgia State pulled off the upset last week vs UL Monroe as 8 point home dogs, but nothing before that game suggested that this side has the cannolis to hang with an explosive Troy State team this week, as is indicated by having gone  0-3 SUATS while  their defence was gutted for  34, 59 and 41 points respectively.  With that said, I now expect a reversion to the norm for Georgia State against a behemoth opponent that will be wide awake coming into this tilt. 

TROY is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons winning by more than 19.7 ppg. 

Play on Troy to cover 

Oregon is in a huge letdown situation after blowing a big lead vs Stanford last week and losing 38-31. This program despite of the accolades it is getting this season, by the pundits still is a long way off from a national contender, and might even be over rated here in the PAC12. Now still feeling the effects of last weeks horrifying loss will now play with these kids heads and Im betting they won't perform optimally against a tough and physical California D. Note: The Duckies are  0-13-1 ATS  away in Conference action when not taking more than 4 points, which is the case here tonight  vs a revenge minded Bears team that got beaten up in Eugene last season.Cal is   5-0-1 ATS at home under head coach Justin Wilcox.

OREGON is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.OREGON is 1-8 ATS  in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.HC Cristobal is 4-14 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached.

Play on California to cover 

 Washington has looked good this season, in wins against Auburn, Utah and Arizona State, but their doing it by averaging just  21 points per game. Here against a very physical and gruelling BYU defence allowing just 17 ppg, the sled dogs are not going to just cruise to an easy victory in my humble opinion. BYU proved their metal already this season when they went into Wisconsin and upset the Badgers as DDdogs, and almost did the same to a solid looking California Bears team losing 21-18 and also beating Arizona as 11.5  point away pups. Look for the Mormons  QB Tanner Mangum to do just enough to put up enough points to get us a cover in what should be a very hard fought tilt. 

WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS ( after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.WASHINGTON is 7-18 ATS  as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992.BYU is 24-10 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 47-17 L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on BYU to cover 

Play on BYU to cover 

The Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) are averaging 55.5 points per game. The Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0) are also showing offensive explosiveness as is evident by scoring an average  54.5 per game  . However, I like the defensive physicality of the Nittany lions a lot more and in a game like this  and feel  their stopping abilities Gove them   the edge here on their own field. 

HC James Franklin  when coming off consecutive wins, is 16-2 SU and 17-1 ATS with Penn State behind QB Trace McSorley – with the only non cover coming against  Ohio State in a 39-38 heart breaker last season. the game they played before that was decided by a FG, which could easily be the difference maker here tonight. With that said lets take the points.

PENN ST is 9-0 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season.PENN ST is 15-1 ATS  off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Franklin is 9-0 ATS  off a road win as the coach of PENN ST. 

 ST is 1-9 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games since 1992

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Wyoming has a huge problem moving the chains, as was evident by barely getting by lower tier Wofford last week with a 17-14 victory and the won't do much damage here this week vs Boise State defence with a chip on their shoulders after getting smacked around by Oklahoma State last time out. Now with an extra week of rest this talented and redemption minded Broncos team should be ready to put the proverbial pedal to the metal and control the line of scrimmage from start to a finish in what Im betting will be one sided action. While I don't adhere to laying this much lumber with a road side on a consistent basis, there are certain situations such as this one that warrant me doing so. Lay the points with this under appreciated group of 5 favourite.

The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Play on Boise State to cover 

Washington State and air orientated attack is going to have their hands full with a strong Utes,  defence anchored by Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson in the secondary  . Utah’s linebackers and safeties, are a also  top tier group should make life miserable for a young group that just got out scored 39-35 by USC last week and could easily be in an emotional letdown scenario . Utes will also be well rested and very ready thanks to their Week Four bye.  Add to that payback for loss suffered last season at home , and I expect this very physical group of Utes to lay down some hurt this week on their way to a victory.

UTAH is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

UTAH is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

CFB road team vs. the money line (UTAH) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 41-9. SU L27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 

The Cincinnati Bearcats used up a lot of energy last week in a come from behind win vs Ohio. The Bearcats were down 21-0 before mounting that ferocious  comeback and will now be in a little tired after putting out that much effort in a 34-30 win as 7 point chalk. It must  noted that Cincinnati is 0-13-1 ATS  last 16 seasons  off a game as a home favorite where they allowed at least 28 points. I know UConn looks bad this season, but anything is possible in College football as has been evident in some massive upsets the last few weeks. With that said, take the points with the home side that actually sets up well in most of my projections.

Play on UConn to cover 

The Warhawks are coming off consecutive setbacks at the hands of Texas A&M and Troy and now many pundits  probably  are looking at this as easy win and an opportunity to get back on track vs a struggling Georgia State program.  But not so fast UL Monroe, fans. Georgia State despite of losing 3 straight are a side that matches up well agains the Warhawks on my head to head matchup charts  and in power rankings analysis . These kids on UL Monroe were jacked up to play two strong schools last couple of weeks and despite of wanting a win here to get back on track could find themselves bruised and battered and in a bit of a letdown situation. 

GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

 Texas Techs offence is hitting on all cylinders scoring 181 points in their L/3  three games. all wins. West Virginia can score in bunches at well, but after beating Texas Tech last season, I expect the revenge minded Red Raiders have the edge here at home.

W VIRGINIA is 7-20 ATS L/27  in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.TEXAS TECH is 21-9 ATS L/30 in home games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry. TEXAS TECH is 7-0 ATS in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB A home team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS TECH) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

Nick Saban has a tendency to use games like this  to get his banged up players healthy and to have a look at some of his younger top tier recruits. This is like a bye week for this powerful Alabama team, and Im betting they just coast to victory this week in merciful fashion. 

Saban L/6 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA have seen Alabama score an average of 34.7 ppg, while the opposition has averaged 9.3 ppg, the average margin of victory coming by 25.4 ppg.Saban  L/24  in home games in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ALABAMA have been his team offences put an average of just 34.6 ppg on the board and win by an average of 25.7 ppg. 

UL Lafayette to cover 

 Buffalo only ranks 61st in rushing defense despite of going against some lousy running teams this season. Army controlled their last game against a potent Oklahoma team losing in OT. I know some might think they will be a letdown situation, but this is a tough West Point minded group that won't lie down no matter what. Im betting they deal well with another tough test this week vs another explosive offense. Look for Army to do what it does best behind the option as they control the tempo of this game. This will be frustrating for Buffalo and their NFL bound QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson. Each of the 3 most meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less and another one is a high probability out come. The last two were decided by 4 and 3 points.

BUFFALO is 2-12 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.

Play on Army to cover

Colorado is 3-0 on the season, while UCLA is 0-3 , and the stats and numbers also favour  Colorado. However, my power rankings and head to head  defensive vs offensive matchup algorithms suggest we have value with the underdog that has had two weeks to prepare for their opponents . Chip Kelley and company are desperate to salvage this season, and will leave everything on the filed this Friday night in what Im betting will be a Bruins cover.

Note: Colorado is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 at home.

 UCLA is 12-2 ATS  L/14 after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games .

Play on UCLA Bruins to cover 

Willie Fritz has assembled a tough bunch here in Tulane and its one of this programs betters group of  talent, behind what is a never say die defence that actually stood tall against Ohio State vaunted offence last week. Ya they were smashed , but man did they look determined. Their no pushovers, and Im so impressed by them that Im willing to recommend we take the points here vs visits Memphis. Note: HC Fritz has won 17 of 25 home games and is 6-1 ATS as home pup of 5 points or more. 

TULANE is 6-0 ATS  in home games after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons

MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.MEMPHIS is 4-16 ATS L/20 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened last week in a 52- 35 victory vs South Alabama.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MEMPHIS) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 14-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

The North Carolina Tar Heels will meet the Miami Hurricanes in nationally-televised college football action on Thursday, September 27 at Hard Rock Stadium. The Canes are almost a 3 TD fav, which is out of whack compared to where true line value sits at about 17 points. Thus taking points here tonight is an easy decision. 

N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 13-42 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on North Carolina to cover 

Army controlled time of possession last week , in their usual methodical way, via their ground attack and delivered Hawaii their first defeat of the season,(27-21) dropping them to 3-1 . The bad news is Hawaii is 0-16-1 ATS L/17 at home coming off a game where they had less than 26 minutes time of possession. Im betting all the early season travelling and the intensity and physicality of that last tilt will have the Rainbow Warriors a little tired this week,  and less than motivated as they face a lower tier team.With that said, look for the margin of victory by the Warriors to be less than expected by the lines makers.

Note: Prior to this season, the Duquesnes last game against an FBS team was in 2014, when they were very competitive facing the  Buffalo  Bulls of the MAC losing 38-28.  Duquesne has converted 53.2% of its third-down opportunities, this season ranking fifth in the FCS in that category. Hawaii has allowed 50% conversion on  third downs , with only six other teams  in the nation more futile defensively stopping this key down.  

Play on Duquesne  to cover 

The Washington Huskies are getting a lot of love from the lines makers here and not giving a lot of respect to the Arizona State Sun Devils. But it must be noted that the Huskies  have failed to cover 16 of their L/21 as PAC 12 Double digit  home chalk . Meanwhile, Arizona State has covered 6 of their L/7 as DD dogs. Hey I know the Sun Devis lost to San Diego State last week , as favs, but I'll forgive that effort as they were in a letdown situation after the physical win they notched the week before against Michigan state. Meanwhile, Washington is getting a lot of accolades from the pundits, but Im betting the sledding for the Huskies won't be easy in this spot after their exhausting physical win vs Utah last week.

The Arizona State Sun Devils are 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in their the last twelve games against the Washington Huskies.

 WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS  after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games .

CFB Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-86 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Eastern Michigan is highly under rated and staunch defensive team that can give San Diego State some issues here. I know the Aztecs  pulled off  the upset behind a backup  QB last time out vs Arizona State, but now in a huge letdown situation , I expect SDState could find them selves getting frustrated by  a very physical MAC team, with a never say die attitude that went into Purdue and upset them in their 2nd game of the season, allowing them just 19 points . It must be noted that  Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS the last eight vs non conference opposition and  are also 2-0 SUATS all-time against MWC opponents.  

E MICHIGAN is 8-0 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (E MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 46-17 L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Oklahoma State was bypassed by most of the pundits last week in their game vs Boise State. I however, knew better, and recommend we bet on Gundy and company instead and I was right in my assessments .Now the Cowboys are getting a little to much love vs a Texas Tech team that is explosive offensively and capable of hanging with Oklahoma State , which they proved in a big DDwin vs a well balanced Houston side last week by a 63-49 count. Also I expect the Cowboys of Stillwater to be in a letdown situation after that huge win that saw them playing with chip on their proverbial shoulders. Note: The Cowboys have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as DD home chalk, while Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS  L6 as conference dogs of 10 points or more. 

Although Oklahoma State has a nine-game winning streak in the series, the matchup has produced some quality shootouts recently. The Cowboys just squeezed by Texas Tech 45-44 in Stillwater in 2016 and escaped Lubbock with a 41-34 victory a year ago.

Texas Tech is 12-0 ATS L/12 on the road coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points.

 OKLAHOMA ST is 7-19 ATS L/26 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS  after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more ) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

Coastal Carolina is one of those teams I have circled to better the pundits expect, especially with HC  Joe Moglia on the sidelines. This coach is super intelligent and one of the best hidden secrets in the College game. They walloped their last two opponents UAB and Campbell by putting 47 and 58 points on the scoreboard and must not be underestimated vs a Ragin’ Cajuns side that is  ranked 107th on d in the nation and  from a betting perspective just  12-29-1 ATS mark at home in conference play, including 2-15-1 ATS when off a loss which is the case here as they are off a 56-10 loss to Miss State last week.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COASTAL CAROLINA) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

The 2-0 Wolfpack  had their game against ranked West Virginia at Raleigh. Cancelled last week because of Hurricane conditions.  Now they go on the road to face Doc Holliday’s Marshall , which is never easy task especially  for a rusty team that missed some practices . Note Marshall is defiant 7-1-1 ATS record in their last nine appearances as non-conference home dogs and their L/6 tries vs ACC competition have not failed too cover with a 5-1-1 ATS mark.  Huntington will be rocking today so when you come a knocking take the points with the Thundering Herd. 

MARSHALL is 7-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. NC STATE is 7-20 L/27 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less .

2-0 away teams in Game Three like NC State with a week off are just 14-28 ATS in non-conference games. Rested, undefeated non-conference home dogs  like Marshall are 11-1 ATS against opponents playing off an ATS win.

Play on Marshall to cover 

North Texas is off a huge win vs Arkansas last week, and the team as a whole after the wild celebration, and start to finish leave everything on the field type effort will now be in an emotional let down spot vs a Liberty team, that is famous for the amount of NFL players they have developed. It must be noted that North Texas are just  3-22 SU  off a SU win as a dog and a current run of 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS away under the same perimeters. Meanwhile, Flames HC Turner Gill is a perfect  5-0 ATS in his career as a underdog against opposition off a SU/ATS victory  and cover of 20 or more points which the young men from Denton achieved vs Arkansas last week. With Gill having 2 weeks to prepare for this tilt, Im betting he will have this young talented group ready to compete here on their own home field. LIBERTY is a perfect  12-0 ATS  in non-conference games since 1992.

Play on Liberty to cover 

Kansas is on a two game win streak, and Baylor was exposed last week in a 40-27 loss to a banged Duke team limping with numerous injuries. The Jayhawks continue to be under rated and disrespected because of a dismal long term record, but after annihilating back to back opponents, it sure looks like their on their way back to being competitive.Kansas is 12-4 SUATS  L/16  in games following consecutive wins, while the Bad News Bears’ have failed to cover 14 of their L/19  as favs.  

BAYLOR is 7-20 ATS L/27 against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Im not going to argue about who the better team is here, its obvious Clemson is a national contender while , Georgia Tech is not. However, it must be noted that Tech   behind  a one way running game and ability to control time of possession, have the ability to stick close enough for a cover here vs a Dabo Swinney team that consistently seems to do just enough to get a victory especially on the road where they have failed to cover 14 of their L/15 as away chalk of 7 or more points. With a revenge game on board vs Syracuse up next Clemson might not be full focused here, giving us an edge with a underdog that has cashed 6 straight with conference revenge. ( Clemson beat Tech last season 24-10 at home) last season.

Play on GTech to cover 

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS in Game Four of the season, and Jimbo Fisher is 10-2 SU versus SEC opponents, including 4-0 SUATS away. The Aggies played Clemson tough in their first game of the season covering while making Clemson work for the win. Now here on the road it will be a lot tougher, but thanks to Alabamas pounding of opponents to this point in the season the price tag attached to them is high and there is value taking the points here behind a very well coached team.  TEXAS A&M is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. 

After consecutive  blowout wins against Northwestern State (59-7) and ULM (48-10), Texas A&M is fifth in the nation in total offense, averaging 596.3 yards per game. It's one of four offenses that rank in the top 25 in both rushing and passing (Houston, Ohio State and Oklahoma State ) nd have the ability to make this close.

CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 42-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas A&M to cover 

Both these teams according to my power rankings have not performed up tot heir charts. Yes, I know Louisville has won 2 row, with the only excusable loss coming to Alabama,   and Indiana 3 in a row.  But those wins by both teams have come  vs teams they were expected to beat, and Virginia despite of beating Ohio of the Mac last week in convincing fashion , are still not performing at an optimal level. After analysing  head to head strengths and weaknesses , Im sticking to my preseason assessments, that would make the Cardinal the superior team even here in enemy territory. 

Louisville is 15-0 ATS L/15 on the road when they failed to cover by at least seven points last game.

CFB home team (VIRGINIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 18-46 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Louisville to cover 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are off back to back destructions vs Kansas Jayhawks and the Ohio State Buckeyes and have given up a combined 107 points in their last two games. The Buffalo Bulls of the MAC might not inspire many bettors, but this team is explosive offensively and dangerous and more than capable of stopping Rutgers cold, and also putting a DD beating on them, even here on the road. The Bulls have averaged 39.7 ppg this season, and can match that output today vs a very bad Rutgers D that is allowing 38 points and 430.7 yards per game.

 The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. 

RUTGERS is 0-6 ATS  off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons and  is 2-14 ATS L/16 in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game . 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

 Cincinnati D, is ranked 2nd in the nation right now and their ground game is averaging 5 yards per carry.  I expect the Bearcats will pound away here and eat up clock time while their own D keeps Solichs offense off the field consistently which will mess with the Bobcats fluidity which in turn will see them frustrated.  Cincinnati continues to roll, on their way to their 4th straight win and cover.

Cincinnati is 21-2 L/23 vs MAC opponents SU. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 24-2 with the average margin of victory combing by 20.6 ppg.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

This is a trap game for Notre Dame, and Im confident they don't deserve their high ranking,

Some of the interesting factors that have me backing Wake here this week are  listed  below...

Wake Forest (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) has covered the spread in its last 11 straight games against ranked opponents. Notre Dame (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS),  owns a tight 6.8 average margin of victory in its last 10 road ACC games dating back over the L/10 seasons.Wake Forest is 12-1 ATS with revenge L/2 seasons,( lost last Years meeting 48-37 on the road but covered) and go against what looks to me to be an over rated and still jelling Irish team that despite of being undefeated are just 1-2 ATS while losing the stats wars in 2 of 3  games this season .It must also be noted that the lucky catholic boys have not registered more than 400 yards in any of their three victories which all came  at home. Here on the road trouble could be brewing vs a Wake Forest side that can be explosive and competitive as was evident vs Boston College last time out. 

From a matchup persepctive  ( difference maker)  Wake Forest's rushing attack Im betting  will gouge  Notre Dame's wobbly defensive front. Wake Forest has gained 264 yards per game on the ground, while Notre Dame has allowed 107 rushing yards per game. 

***Notre Dame is the highest-ranked non-conference opponent to visit Wake Forest since the Demon Deacons pulled a September 1996 shocker by toppling No. 13 Northwestern. There was also a 1979 upset of No. 13 Auburn. Last season Wake Forestupset No.25 ranked NC State. 

NOTRE DAME is 1-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 68-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Tulsa under HC Philip Montgomery has proven himself over rated, and he can't motivate his team to be consistent as was the case last week when they were upset at home by Arkansas State. The offence is not very efficient anymore and the defence, has proven insufficient more often then not. Against a hard working side like Temple that is off a big win vs Maryland last week, their in trouble. The Owls prevailed 43-22 in Tulsa to close the 2017 regular season and matchup well vs the visitors.

TEMPLE is 12-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 15-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Temple to cover 

Utah enters this game against Washington with revenge for a 33-30 loss last season, which flashes a go sign here on this bet , because of their proficiency in this role as is evident by a 5-1 ATS L/6 with conference revenge. The Utes won last time out but failed to cover, versus a though Northern Illinois side by a 17-6 count as 13 point road chalk. However it must also be noted that Utah HC Whittingham has cashed 13 of their L/14 off a ATS loss. Overall the Utes have recently also been a viable investment option when getting 5 or more points as a home underdog cashing 6 of their L/7 opportunities. Utahs Defence remains very solid, and here at home in a black out game where they have won 8. of their L/10 they look like live dogs that must be respected.

UTAH is 15-3 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off a home win by 17 points or more, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 17-45 ATS  L/26 seasons for a go against  73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 

Alot of sharp bettors got down on what appeared to be a value line with a home team that won 11 games last season (TCU). But on futher review and a comparison of both teams strengths and weaknesses , it becomes failry obvious that the linemakers are actually short on this line, and it should be closer to -16 with visiting Ohio State according to my power rankings. Historically speaking Ohio State has been a solid bet on the road coveing 10 straight as away chalk or -17 or less and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 in their first road game of the season. The importance of this game is not essential to TCU Big 12 camapign this season, and with Texas on board next week, I'm betting the coaching staff have not been able to dedidcate as musch time as is needed to take on this type of explosive opponent. Note: TCU is 0-6 ATS L/6 before facing the Texas Longhorns and have only covered 1 of their L/5 head to heads with Big10 opposiiton. I know Urban Meyer is not on the sidelines but he still has his fingerprints all over this team, and is still pulling the strings. Bet on a conclusive Ohio State victory and cover.

Play on Ohio State to cover 

 Eastern Washington ranked 6th in FCS, recorded five sacks against Northern Arizona last week and are the type of defence that can cause problems for Washington State QB who  has weak completion numbers (66,7%) and a below average offensive stats for a guy playing in Mike Leach's air raid system. Washington State offensive line has looked solid , and QB Gardner Minshew has not been sacked once, but still hurries his throws and has been intercepted 3 times already. Today against this type of aggressive D, their could easily be problems. Eastern Washington will primed to compete against instate rivals Cougars today, and Im betting they will get us a cover behind a balanced team with a solid QB in Gage Gubrud who owns has 9 TDs no interceptions so far this season.

Play on Eastern Washington 

Ole Miss has looked horrendous on defence so far this season, and its obvious the talent level from the offensive side of the ball is far superior to that on the defensive side. Truth is Ole Miss has almost always won recruiting battles for WRs and top tier QBS, but have failed to land defensive 4 and 5 star recruits. But today I expect the D, to step up while the offence continues to do what they do best and that is  score. Yes, even against their behemoth opponent Alabama. 

Ta'amu the Rebels QB is working with one of the top receiving corps in the nation. It is led by A.J Brown, who tops the SEC in receptions per game (7.5) and is second in receiving yards per game (125.5), eighth nationally. This offence can hang points on the best teams in the nation, and thats what I'm betting  on here tonight, against a against an Alabama secondary with all new starters. 

 When Alabama travelled here  two years ago, it had to come  from behind  a 21-point deficit in the second quarter to pull off a wild a43-37 victory. In 2014-15, the Rebels pulled off back-to-back upsets of the Crimson Tide.

Ole Miss 9-3 ATS as a underdog of more than 17 points, and 8-3 ATS as a underdog with conference revenge.  

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (OLE MISS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 38-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

Both these teams are off convincing wins last time out, and both are now 2-0. Both have explosive offences and top tier QBs leading the way. The difference maker will be home field advantage . With that said, Oklahoma State gets the nod in what the lines makers estimate  will be a closely contested affair. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 90-62 ATS as a favorite since 1992.

BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last few seasons.HC Harsin is 0-7 ATS  after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach, of Boise State. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 30-12 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game.

CFB home team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 30-8 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Oklahoma State 

UAB is off a loss to under rated Coastal Carolina last week by a 47-24 count . But they have proven to be a good bounce back side and are 19-4 ATS as home pups when coming off a loss. Tulane has looked good this season on offence behind top QB Johnathon Banks, but their defence is atrocious having allowed 953 yards in their first two games and are ranked 111th in the nation on defence and are less than viable road favs in their first game away from home this season.

TULANE is 8-23 ATS L/30 in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UAB) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 70-30 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on UAB to cover 

Hawaii has impressed me by starting their season at 3-0, behind an explosive and balanced offence. While Im not totally sold on them ,because of their  far inconsistent defence I do like them to cover vs Army this week despite of being on the road. I know Armys option offence is hard to stop, but the Warriors can use the blue print that was successful in Game 1 as they had success outpointing another option based offence owned by Colorado State . This Warriors team can burn you and so many ways one Im betting it will that attack that allows them help us cash a ticket this Saturday. 

Monken is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home as the coach of Army. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HAWAII) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 37-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HAWAII) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team vs. the money line (HAWAII) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a terrible defense ( 6.2 YPP or more ), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 40-4 SU L/27 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors on the blind which give credence to us taking the points here this week. 

Play on Hawaii to cover 

We have a significant power ranking increase registered for Kansas after going into Central Michigan and hammering them by a 32-7 count. Call me crazy but this team might actually be competitive going forward after a long embarrassing drought. I'm betting Kansas can make Rutgers one-dimensional by stopping the run,  as QB Sitkowski is currently questionable with an arm injury  I know some might call me continue to call me a lunatic for laying points with Kansas but  unbelievably to some they are  capable of garnering a win vs a Rutgers side that could be emotionally let down after being humiliated 52-3 last week by Ohio State.

CFB road team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are just 2-36 SU in their next game L/27 seasons for a go against 95% conversion rate for bettors. The average margin of victory was 17.6 ppg)

Play on Kansas to cover 

  Toledo, 20-7 SU in two seasons under HC Jason Candle and must be respected as  a viable football program especially when playing here in the Glass Bowl. Meanwhile, Miami their opponents despite of pasting Savannah State last time out 77-0 showed some weakness in game 1 of their schedule vs LSU losing in DD fashion. Not all is perfect with Mark Richts football program and despite of good recruiting classes this steam just can't seem to get over the hump especially on the road. It must be noted Toledo is 5-1 ATS L/6 at home when they own a winning record which they have including last weeks 66-3 win vs VMI. Note: TOLEDO is 27-8 ATS after a win by 28 or more points since 1992.TOLEDO is 7-0 ATS after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.TOLEDO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

 Toledo is 8-0 ATS  L/8 covering my more than 8.5 ppg at home coming off a game where they allowed less than 200 passing yards  

Home teams coming off a win by more than 35 points are 748-600-32 ATS for a quality long term winning   bet. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 31-7 ATS L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Toledo to cover 

Boston College has come a long way over the last few seasons. However, I was  still surprised to see them build into a  market  road favorite against a under valued Wake Forest team that has the ability to blast away offensively with the best of teams, including Boston College even without the suspended QB Kendal Hinton in the lineup. I expect the Demon Deacons to stretch the field  vs BC via the run game , and than use that option behind a good looking freshman QB Sam Hartman to open up down field against a  suspect secondary that is the weakest part of the defence as was the case vs Umass in week 1.  Look for star WR Greg Dorch to so some damage here today and for Wake Forest to keep this game close enough to possibly pull off the upset.

WAKE FOREST is 11-2 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-18 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better are 37-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous games are 22-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Rice played a solid game vs a  balanced Houston team on the road last week, and were competitive for almost 3 quarters before falling apart late for a 45-27 loss covering as 25 point dogs. The game was a lot closer than the final score might indicate , as Rice showed some explosive offensive schemes in that back and forth battle. Meanwhile, their opposition this week Hawaii has played some impressive offensive football in their first two weeks of the season vs Navy last week at home and Colorado State in their road opener putting up, 59 and 43 points in victories. The Warriors Achilles heel as has been the case in  recent past campaigns remains their defence, as they allowed an average of 37.5 ppg in those two above mentioned tilts. Tonight in what could be an emotional letdown spot for the Warriors  against a Rice squad that can put points up on the board in a hurry, Im betting their in trouble and a win if they can get it, will not  come without some blood , sweat and tears.

Hawaii is 0-6 ATS L/6 after accumulating 450 or more yards of offence in two straight games. 

Rice is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their L/7 visits to Paradise Island. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (RICE) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team allowing 34 ppg or more, after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games 36-4 SU L/27 seasons.

Play on Rice to cover 

The Sun Devils looked great last week in a win vs Texas San Antonio. Herm Edwards the new HC of the Devils has not lost his touch since an extended departure from the College football scene. It must be noted that Arizona State have covered 4 straight  as home undedogs of 7 or more points, and have won 10 straight at home all-time versus the Big Ten.  Meanwhile, we know that the  Spartans under HC DAtonio are slow starters and just got by Utah state last week and are just 0-6 ATS their last six versus the Pac-12 and far from solid road favs here in this spot. 

ARIZONA ST is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - off a home win, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 8-30 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference game are 30-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Penn State was involved in a hard fought game vs Appalachian State last time out and needed a late score to cover. That game could still be effecting them and a emotional letdown scenario is not out of the question vs a another gritty program. Last season in Happy Valley Pittsburgh actually out gained the Lions despite of losing on the scoreboard and are 5-0-1 ATSL/6 in this series. You can bet HC Narduzzi and company behind what should be a solid run game to be primed on pulling of the upset vs their instate rivals and be sky high here emotionally today. It must be noted that Penn State has covered just once in their L/10 as -14 or less road chalk. The Panthers are also 11-0-1 ATS L/12 as home dogs of 8 or more points and get my support again as home pups. 

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 10-33 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - off a home win, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 8-30 ATS L/510seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Needless to say this is a huge game for Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Clemson   will not be a hyped up in this non conference affair. I believe in Fisher as a DD home dog, and feel his team has what it takes to cover vs this National championship contender.

HC of Texas A&M is 45-8 SU all-time in home games in his career including 22-1 SU in games in which his teams are undefeated meanwhile, Clemson is 0-14-1 ATS failing to cover by more than 10 ppg since the 2000 campaign as a road favorite coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least six points which was the case on a -51 line vs Furman last week.

Play on the Texas A&M Aggies 

The LA Monroe Warhawks have 17 returning starters in the fold, and must not be underestimated here this week vs their hosts Southern Miss  side with just 9 returning starters. Both own wins vs lower tier teams in their season debuts, and  both look capable enough to put points on the board in what should be a  hard fought back and forth affair that could easily be decided by a late scoring drive. 

LA MONROE is 20-8 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.LA MONROE is 20-6 ATS L/26 in road games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. SOUTHERN MISS is 3-14 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game.

CFB team (LA MONROE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters - weeks 1-2 are 26-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on LA Monroe to cover 

We all know how good a program and team Georgia football will field here today, but this is a long time rivalry that is emotional, and I expect a full house here today to back the Gamecocks. Like last season, we can expect a physical game , that I'm betting actually favours South Carolina to cover. Georgia won last years battle 24-10 on their own home turf, but now with the border war changing venues we will take the points. Note: Georgia has failed to cover 5 straight in road openers if they are DD chalk kickoff. South Carolina is 8-3 ATS in this series, and 5-1-1 ATS with conference revenge.

Play on South Carolina to cover 

Arkansas State is a program that has been highly competitive recently  and off a win in game 1 of their season and Im betting they can stay within the number here this week, vs a No.1 ranked Alabama team that will be focused on staying healthy before their SEC opener next week vs Ole Miss. Nick Saban is 0-5 ATS in his career with Alabama as a non-conference favorite of more than 28 points before his SEC opener when facing an opponent coming off a victory and  is also just 1-11 ATS as non conference home chalk of 28 points or more and . It must also be pointed out that the Arkansas State Red Wolves  have lost just 1 game of their last 159 games by more than 37 points.

 CFB Underdog  of 31.5 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-7 ATS L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Arkansas State to cover 

This one is a revenge situation that sets up from last season where Duke mercilessly smashed Northwestern, 41- 17, as a 2-point home underdog. Revenge is one very powerful motivational factor as stated in many data bases including the bible. Quote" “Vengeance is mine; I will repay. End Quote: That will be the Northwestern moto this week. 
Look for the Cats at home in Ryan Field today to make it 10-2 SU in their L/12 home openers.

NORTHWESTERN is 10-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team vs. the money line (NORTHWESTERN) - in non-conference games, off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival are 46-9 L/10 seasons for a 84% SU conversion rate. ( NW beat Purdue last week 31-27.)

Play on Northwestern to cover

Play on the Miami Canes to cover ,

Hawaii might of taken advantage of rebuilding Colorado State program for a win on the road last week 43-34, but now on tired legs after back and forth trips from Paradise Island to the mainland and than back to Paradise Island  again, the Warriors will now have to contend with a solid Navy football program that will not be over looking them because of the irrationally exuberant headlines Hawaiis football program has been featured in all week. The Midshipan will be especially primed to capture a conclusive victory here after losing 6 of their L/7 games last season.Mind you two of those losses were to UCF and Notre Dame where they did not look out of place.The Midshipman did show their metal with a 49-7 win vs Virginia in their Bowl game, and are still steaming and ready to roll here's  vs  this Saturday night in the final game of the day. Im betting this will  one of  Niumatalolo’s most explosive teams yet and that the Warriors despite of vast coaching and tempo changes on offence are not ready to compete  with this kind of opponent just yet. 

HAWAII is 0-7 ATS  after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 45-15 ATS L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Navy to cover 

The Ponies  make their debut under new head coach Sonny Dykes this Saturday at North Texas. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but Im betting SMU has made more efficient upgrades especially on D in the off season behind former Northern Illinois defensive coordinator Kevin Kane and the offence under take no prisoners style of play implemented by   Dykes leadership will see the Mustangs continue to roll. I feel strongly that SMU has a outright chance at victory, partly because I feel North Texas will have problems plugging the run via 3-3-5 defensive scheme and ha a tendency of giving up huge plays.

NORTH TEXAS is 8-20 ATS L/28 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 .

The Mustangs have beaten UNT three consecutive times overall and lead the all-time series 31-5-1.

Play on SMU to cover 

  Chip Kelly  the former Oregon HC  Is now back in the  Pac-12 . His OU team was dominating, but I'm betting his task here at UCLA will be a daunting  one this season, especially on defense where this Bruins football program looked atrocious last season especially vs the run, ranking last among power 5 teams .   Kelley from a wagering perspective  was not a particularly good bet outside of his conference in his tenure with the Ducks, going just  6-7 ATS, including 1-3 ATS in season opening battles . On the flipside Bearcats HC Luke Fickell has put together a truly talented and under rated  group here behind some very good recruiting classes and I'm betting this Cincinnati Bearcats teams is  being seriously underestimated , while Chip and his ultra talented but still  less than cohesive group are over rated at this point in the season.

UCLA is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - poor rushing defense from last season - allowed 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, with 5 offensive starters returning are just 9-22 SU L/5 seasons, with the average point differential clicking in at 5.9 ppg. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

  Two seasons ago,  Troy closed as 35-point underdogs at Clemson and covered with extraordinary ease in a hard fought  30-24 loss. Last year, they fearlessly went into Death Valley and  upset LSU, 24- 21, as 20.5-point pups Now with revenge on board for a a season opening 24-13 home loss to the Broncos in 2017 I expect they will be primed to be competitive again . I know BSU was  ranked No. 22 in the preseason AP poll and returning senior QB Brett Rypien, is a stud QB.   But it must be noted that Troy  are no pushovers , and are  9-0 ATS record  as underdog of  9 or more points at Veterans Memorial Stadium and this will be their first home dog situation since the 20015 season..  It would also be important to point out that Bryan Harsin’s Broncos   have covered only 1 of their L/5  ATS in season openers the last five years, and 4-10 ATS as double-digit chalk versus an opponent that won 10 or more games the previous season. Troy is a team that won 25 of their 31 overall and must be respected here as home dogs. Yes even a against this powerful Boise group. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference game are 30-6 ATS L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, in non-conference games are 42-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover 

The Hawkeyes should not be favoured by this much. The opening line was bad, and has been bet down, and I'm betting taking 10 points with Northern Illinois also offers value.    Iowa has lost a lot form last years team. and have been far from good bets in the past in non conference openers going just  3-11 ATS at  home when they are less  16 point chalk .Meanwhile, NIU is 30-10 SU and 27-11-2 ATS in its last forty road games and are  14-4 ATS as double-digit non-conference road dogs  the last 18 seasons. including  11- 1 ATS in their L/12 Big 12 battles  . HC Ferentiz  and company also  own a ugly 1-5 ATS record in its last six games against MAC opponents and are 0-3 ATS in season openers. The last time these teams opened against each other in  2012-13  the two tilts were decided by a total of  just 4 points and Im betting another very close game here behind a very improved Northern Illinois defence. 

N ILLINOIS is 13-4 ATS L/17 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.

CFB road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N ILLINOIS) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 42-13 ATS L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 

This is a pure and simple situation that will see Texas focused on getting some payback for last seasons humiliating loss at home to this same Maryland program. Its not usually my thing to lay almost two touchdowns on the road between power 5 teams, but this one stands out as being exceptional situation and worth laying the lumber. Texas will primed on taking a merciless stance here today on their way to a one sided beatdown of mammoth proportions. Note: Suspended HC DJ Durkins has had a lot of issues that have effected this Terps group mentality, and I expect we see that here today. I don't think interim HC and OC Matt Canada will have this team ready to compete at the level it needs to not to be embarrassed today.

 Maryland football program  failed to cover 34 of  their L/36 straight up non-conference home or neutral field losses, including  23 straight ATS losses under these perimeters. 

Texas head coach Herman is 9-3 SUATS  when seeking revenge, including  10-1 ATS in non-conference games, and a perfect  5-0 ATS as a visitor. 

Play on Texas to cover 

After a few of ugly seasons, since going FBS football, Texas State has finally tapped into a deep Texas talent pool and had a couple of very good recruiting classes  with 17 3star recruits in the lineup , which has them flying in under the radar in this opener vs Rutgers side that averaged just 18 PPG (120th), 115.58 PYPG (124th) and 147.08 RYPG (86th) on offence .With an inexperienced TD at the helm of offence in QB Sitkowski I'm betting things will  not get much better for the Scarlet Knights even with their new OC McNutty making calls. 

Note:Less than two weeks before the start of the year, the Scarlet Knights saw eight players - all from the defensive side of the ball - charged for their alleged involvement in a credit-card fraud scheme. These kids set a tone in the lockeroom that won't be easy erased when the on field group takes to the field today.

Rutgers is 3-8 ATS L/11 as a DD fav, and in no way to they inspire me, especially vs a Texas State Defence that has shown vast improvement over the last few seasons.

Play on Texas State to cover 

South Carolina goes against instate opponent Coastal Carolina here today in what must be looked at as a tuneup game for the Gamecocks and super bowl type game for Coastal Carolina. 

The talent discrepancies are large, but the motivational factors are also big, and Im betting HC Joe Moglia and company can compete here and cover the number vs a Gamecocks side that has some new faces on D, especially in the secondary. Carolina also have a tendency to play conservatively on offense and will see OC Mclendon coach only the 2nd game of his career. Also with a huge tilt vs Georgia on board for next week, Im betting South Carolina will not showcase their full playbook, and leave little for the Bulldogs coaches to dissect. 

I know this is Coastal Carolinas only 2nd season in FCS, butJo Mogila is 51-15 SU in five years on the sideline and is an astute student of the game, and spent last season analyzing what this team needed to compete. I respect this HC a lot and feel he can keep his team close enough to cover. 

The Gamecocks are just 3-9 ATS L/12 at home as DD chalk. 

CFB road team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 59-25 ATS L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

San Diego State Rbs Rashaad Penny(2248 ry) and Juwan Washington (759 ry) will be primed to run wild this week, vs a Stanford D, that no longer looks as formidable as it once did. Last season Stanford performed well below expectations defensively and permitted a whopping 35 ppg in their final two games of the season, and now with Justin Reid and DT Harrison Phillips gone to the NFL via the draft, things don't likely look to get much better. San Diego State plays the type of ball that can keep them in this tilt till the end , and get us the cover.

STANFORDs last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a average margin of victory coming by 13.3 ppg, which gives us value with the underdog based on line divergence.

CFB team (STANFORD) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are just 7-30 ATS L/26 seasons for a  go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on SD State to cover