Washington is on a two game win streak thanks to paying better attention to defence, and being much more careful in transition.WASHINGTON is 17-7 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Atlanta continues to struggle to score consistently, with the 30th ranked offensive efficiency despite of procuring the No 1 pace in the league  .  Im betting despite of Hawks trying to run and gun , their efficiency , thanks to missing one of their key offensive players Prince will see their flow thwarted as well as their total output.   Meanwhile, the Wizards will remain steadfast in their wish to play a better controlled brand of basketball. What Im betting on here is a lower scoring game than the hefty number might indicate. 

WASHINGTON is 9-0 UNDER  vs. struggling  rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 22-7 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 210.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Hofstra has averaged 86.2 ppg game at home this season where they play an uptempo attack type of hoops. Im betting on them reaching their average again vs a poor Monmouth D, that has allowed 77 plus points per game on the road. I know Monmouth is not a very efficient scoring team, but in a wide open type affair where they should constantly b chasing the score , they should have a 60 to 65 point output which will  help breach this total to the upside if my projections are correct. 

HOFSTRA is 11-1 OVER in all home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 161.8 ppg scored.

CBB Road teams against the total (MONMOUTH) - poor shooting team - shooting 42% or worse on the season, after 2 straight games making 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 29-10 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MONMOUTH) - cold shooting team - 5 straight games making 40% or less of their shots are 33-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

My own projections make this game closer to 144.5 , which according to my estimates makes this a very good value pay to the under. I know Evansville can score in bunches, but Arkansas State will be prepared to play a slower more methodical game against them here at home where they allowed 54 points in their lone home game, which I'm betting results in a lower scoring tilt here today.

ARKANSAS ST is 17-6 L/23 UNDER  in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game with a combined average score of 147.9 ppg scored.EVANSVILLE is 9-1 UNDER  after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 123.6 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (ARKANSAS ST) - a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season, in December games are 167-109 UNDER L/22 seasons for a solid 61% long term conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Bulls take the court against the Pacers,  with associate head coach Jim Boylen  taking over as head coach after Hoiberg was tied yesterday. QUOTE "You might see a bit different style of the offensive end as we get going," Boylen told reporters at his introductory press conference Monday. "You got to put your hand print on it and make it yours. But you have to realize there's a level of shock that the players have to deal with." END QUOTE The shock that Boylen is speaking about Im betting will see the Bulls play a more methodical game plan, that will help keep this game slower paced then their used to and will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers expect. With Indiana on 3 days rest after a west coast road trip I expect they will be fresh enough to play some strong D, something the coaching staff have been emphasizing of late. 

Chicago has gone under in 10 of their L/13 games. Indiana has gone under in 3 straight. 

CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 207.9 ppg scored.INDIANA is 10-1 UNDER  in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 199.5 ppg going on the board.INDIANA is 20-5 UNDER  after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after playing 3 consecutive road games, playing with 2 days rest are 51-18 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

My own projections make this total closer to 149.5 thus giving us value to the over with my projections. 

DAYTON is 6-0 OVER after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 157.9 ppg scored.DETROIT is 15-5 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 with a combined average of 147.3 ppg scored. 

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (DAYTON) - after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game are 97-52 OVER L/5 seasons for a solid 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

Washington topped New York 108-95 earlier this season at home, and Im expecting the same type of lower scoring affair once again . 

NEW YORK is 29-16 UNDER L/45  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 208.3 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 18-6 UNDER  in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored.

 HC Fizdale is 12-2 UNDER  in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 186.6 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 60-20 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 25-4 UNDER for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NYK/ WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%)are 24-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

My own projections suggest this total should be closer to 150, thus giving us value according to my estimations with an under wager.

Under is 3-1-1 in Hawkeyes last 5 road games.Under is 3-1-1 in Hawkeyes last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 3-1-1 in Hawkeyes last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 11-2 in Spartans last 13 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 home games.Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 6-2 in Spartans last 8 vs. Big Ten.

Play UNDER 

The Clippers come at you in waves both from the starters and the bench  averaging 117.5 points per game, fourth in the league, and have been held to fewer than 100 only once. Im betting they force the Mavericks into a fast paced game via their 9th ranked pace. It must also be noted that the Clippers defence ranks 22nd in the NBA allowing 112+ ppg and Dallas behind an offence that averages more than 115 ppg at home should be successful converting against  their soft defence regularly tonight. Everything is pointing to this being a high scoring affair.

LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 OVER  after a combined score of 235 points or more this season with a combined average score of 233.3 ppg scored.

NBAVteams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 56-28 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Connecticut has been running of gunning of late, vs lower tier teams, but still bases its success on their ability to play top tier defence. Here today against much better opposition in Arizona Im expecting a more pronounced defensive effort. Meanwhile, Arizona is now a defence first team, and have allowed only one team to score more than 73 points against them( Gonzaga) and have held 4 of their 7 opponents to not exceed the 66 points plateau. With that said, today Im betting on a combined score that stays on the low side of the total.

CONNECTICUT is 8-1 UNDER  in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 121.5 ppg going on the board.CONNECTICUT is 26-13 UNDER  in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts with a combined average of 142 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Play UNDER 

After Butler appeared in his last game with Minnesota on Nov. 9 at Sacramento, the Wolves were allowing 117.7 points per game on 47.4 percent shooting. In the last nine games, since Butler was traded the Wolves are now allowing just  99.3 points on 41.8 percent shooting. This is now a much better defensive team, and tonight against another top tier defensive team, the Boston Celtics  ranked 2nd overall in defensive efficiency (104)  in the league and 4th in ppg allowed 103.9 Im expecting a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total .

MINNESOTA is 11-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 212.9 ppg scored.BOSTON in their L/34 games after a huge blowout win by 30 or more have seen a combined average of 187.4 ppg scored. ( Celtics smashed Cleveland 128-95 last night and will now be on tired legs)

Under is 7-1 in Timberwolves last 8 games following a ATS win.Under is 12-2 in Timberwolves last 14 overall.Over is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 Saturday games.Under is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 6-1 in Timberwolves last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 home games.Under is 10-2 in Timberwolves last 12 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 6-2 in Timberwolves last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 10-4 in Timberwolves last 14 games playing on 2 days rest. 

NBA team (BOSTON) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 50-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 190.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

These two teams are explosive offensively to say the least. The Raptors rank 3rd in offensive output in the league averaging 117 ppg and 2nd in offensive efficiency, behind the 11th fastest pace. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors, rank 6th in  offence averaging 116 ppg and 3rd in offensive efficiency, behind the leagues 15th ranked pace .  there outputs and pace were slowed for a while as they got used to playing with super star Curry, but now their picking up their speed and play Dubs ball. The Warriors do have some key injuries with Draymond Green and Step curry, out, but lately the team is looking more cohesive,  and playing pretty good attack orientated ball , scoring 125,117,116 in consecutive games and will have no choice but to push the ball up court quickly vs a dangerous quick strike or be blown off the court.The Raptors have lost eight consecutive meetings with the Warriors, and knowing this Im betting they will be all business and ready to really lay down beating, and like I said above, the Warriors will have to respond. This will make Im betting for a high scoring affair that goes over this offered number.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (TORONTO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 62-24 OVER L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 230.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 68-28 OVER for a  71% conversion rate for bettors  L/22 seasons with a combined average of 230.1 ppg going on the board. 

Play on OVER 

GEORGIA TECH is 14-5 OVER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 137.6 ppg scored. My own estimates project a combined score in 136 range, thus according to my numbers and GTechs combined scoring averages against top tier teams on the road  an over bet here looks like a very viable option. Yes, folks I know both teams play a solid brand of methodical hoops, but the linesmakers in my estimation after under compensated when it comes to matchup discrepancies. 

Play OVER 

I have watching this Totals number for over night action and now this morning and  Im ready to act and recommend we take an under stance. Washington stayed at home and defeated the Houston Rockets, 135-131, in overtime Monday night. At the same time New Orleans was struggling in a 124-107 home loss to the Boston Celtics. Both need to correct deficient defensive issues , and both are working hard to do so especially  the Pelicans HC Gentry, who has finally realized  running and gunning out of the gate has been a catastrophe for a team that has lost 4 straight. The Pelicans have allowed an average of 36.3 first-quarter points in the last three games. HC Gentry response is as follows: "If you do that," Gentry said, "more than likely you're going to be playing uphill for the other 36 minutes. We've got to get off to better starts so that when we do go on a run, we're creating separation and not just pulling even." END QUOTE. Look for New Orleans to be more methodical in the first quarter tonight, and start this game concentrating on playing better D in transition, which will result in a lower scoring game overall than many might expect. 

WASHINGTON is 9-1 UNDER L/10  off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 12-3 UNDER in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 212.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 27-3 UNDER L/22 seasons with a combined average of 207.8 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

 Mass can score in bunches as is evident by  averaging 83.4 ppg. Quinnipiac has no where near the same offence, and they play a more conservative style of hoops. but today they will end up chasing a high powered offensive team, which will result in this artificially low total being eclisped. My estimations make this total closer to the 145 mark giving us value with a over wager in this spot. 

QUINNIPIAC is 10-1 OVER in road games after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less  with a combined average of 145.5 ppg scored, which happened last time out vs Maine 58-50. 

MASSACHUSETTS is 8-0 OVER versus poor passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 150.6 ppg scored. MASSACHUSETTS is 10-0 OVER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combine average of 150.6 ppg going on the board. MASSACHUSETTS is 10-1 OVER after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 156.3 ppg scored.MASSACHUSETTS is 8-0 OVER after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 161.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

CBB  teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MASSACHUSETTS) - after allowing 90 points or more against opponent after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game are 117-65 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

Los Angeles will take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Its interesting that my own projections estimate that both these teams will score more than 105 points. Note:DENVER is 41-4 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 236.8 ppg going on the board.LA LAKERS are 43-9 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 235.5 ppg scored. Im basing tonights OVER call on my own estimations. 

The Lakers have averaged 114.4 ppg on offence on the road this season, while allowing 111.4 ppg . Meanwhile, Denver has scored an average of 113.8 ppg at home. 

Play OVER 

 Georgia Southern has played some wide open games this season, but E.Tenn State knows how to deal with free flowing teams, behind a D, that has allowed 61, 63, 61 points respectively in their L/3 and have held one opponent to just 44 points of defence this season. Here on the road Im betting that E. Tenn State hunkers down and get s very physical as they look to disrupt G.Southerns offensive rhythm which in turn will keep this game on the low side of the total. 

E TENN ST is 9-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 131 ppg scored. E TENN ST is 10-1 UNDER  in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of. 129.4 ppg scored.

E TENN ST is 8-0 UNDER  in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 3 seasons witht a combined average of 133.6 ppg scored and  is 8-0 UNDER  n road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 season with a combined average of 128.5 scored.  

Play UNDER 

Both these teams have been playing some high scoring games, but from a matchup perspective and system vs system over view a much slower tilt must be expected in a head to head battle that promises to be physical. 

IDAHO ST is 11-0 UNDER L/11 in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half and is 7-0 UNDER after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. 

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (IDAHO ST) - good shooting team from last season - made 45% or more of their shot attempts, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 67-35 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Boston College and Minnesota have both played solid defence so far this season, with the Golden Eagles allowing 66 ppg game at home while the Gophers having allowed 65.3 ppg on the road. In a game between two top tier programs I expect a physical affair tonight that stays on the low side of the number. 

Play UNDER

All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. Because of extensive betting opportunities associated with the large number of games, there are certain days when individual analysis is not included. Thank you and God Bless . Alex Smart 

Play UNDER

On Nov 11 the Spurs put 133 points on the board in a  fast paced win vs the Chicago Bulls ( ranked 23 in ppg allowed 113) . In the return matchup Im betting on the Spurs using a high energized attack to try to duplicate the last games successful results, which in turn will make for a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers expect. I know the Bulls are having problems scoring, but Im betting their going to be forced into chasing a team that matches up well again them  or be blown of the court and for this Total to be eclipsed. Note: San Antonio owns the 21st ranked Defensive efficiency in the league and not longer is a stalwart defensive team. ( Defensive Rating is for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions)

SAN ANTONIO is 12-2 OVER  after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 218.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 27-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored with no score going below the 213 point plateau.

Play OVER 

WOODEN LEGACY - Final Rnd - Titan Gym - Fullerton, CA

Miami can light it up against lower tier teams, but they are still a defence first team, that will revert a more physical game plan here vs a stronger opponent in Seton Hall. Miami has allowed an average of 63 ppg so far this season, and now on tired legs after a hefty schedule should once again be methodical and defensive minded in their approach here tonight vs the Hall.  Meanwhile,Seton is also on tired legs after a heavy week, and will be prepared to hunker down tonight in a similar fashion. With that said, Im betting on a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. 

SETON HALL is 42-23 UNDER  in road games when playing only their 3rd game in a week with a combined average of 136.5 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 11-3 UNDER when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 131 ppg going on the score board.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MIAMI/SETON HALL) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, playing only their 3rd game in a week are 88-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Knicks have been offensively better of late, but their underlying offensive problems, are Im betting still going to be an issue , especially today vs a physical and methodical Grizzlies team that works hard on grinding teams down and disturbing their flow.   The Knicks are averaging 108.9 ppg ranking 29th in the league, and a slower pace that ranks 20th overall.  Meanwhile, the the Grizzlies rank 30th in pace and 1st and Defence, and 30th in offence. The above combinations Im betting will result in lower scoring tilt that does not eclipse this total. Note:New York  has not scored  more than 100 points in any of its previous seven trips to Memphis and Im betting on a repeat performance here in this spot.MEMPHIS is 25-12 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 203.3 ppg going on the board. 

MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 196.6 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a combined average of 193.6 ppg scored, with NYK averaging just 96.6 ppg in offense. 

Play UNDER 

Minnesota is playing better without the traded Jimmy Butler but their offence does not have the explosiveness it did with him in the lineup. It must be noted that MINNESOTA is 9-1 UNDER in November games this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored.   Meanwhile, Chicago is struggling offensively ,and as a result has gone under in 9 of their L/12 and have been held under 99 points in 7 of their L/9 games. the Bulls played last night scored 96 point sin a loss, and are on tired legs here and could easily find themselves muted offensively again. Everything points to this being another game where both teams keep a even pace and for the total combined score to stay on the low side of the number. 

The Timberwolves have gone under in 5 straight as a favorite with a combined average of 204 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 Saturday games. Under is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MINNESOTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%). are 51-19 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

 These teams can score in bunches. Houston is averaging 87.3 ppg and BYU is averaging 84.7 points per game. Let the fireworks begin. OVER 

Historial trends: 

HOUSTON is 14-1 OVER off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more since 1997 with a combined average of 152.7 ppg scored/HOUSTON is 15-4 OVER   in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997 with a combined average of 162.9 ppg scored. 

BYU is 6-0 OVER  in home games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 season with a combined average of 156.6 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and overall head to head team system and player vs player analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. Because of extensive betting opportunities associated with the large number of games, there are certain days when individual analysis is not included. Thank you and God Bless . Alex Smart 

Play UNDER 

The Washington Post reported about on-court confrontations between John Wall and Jeff Green, and between Bradley Beal and Austin Rivers at a practice last week and that after those incidents Wall swore at Brooks and Beal sounded off to general manager Ernie Grunfeld. This report quantifies what is obvious and that is that this  Wizards team is in disarray, and playing wide open undisciplined basketball. Tonight I expect Torontos vaunted offence ranked 5th in the league behind the 10th fastest pace  to pound the stumbling  Wizards 29th ranked defence mercilessly while Washington behind 10th ranked offence and 7th fastest pace  will  have no choice but to chase and respond in run and gun fashion or be blown off the court. This Im betting results in a high scoring affair that eclipses this number.

TORONTO is 8-0 OVER  in home games after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 233.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 26-5 OVER L/22 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and overall head to head team system and player vs player analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. Because of extensive betting opportunities associated with the large number of games, there are certain days when individual analysis is not included. Thank you and God Bless . Alex Smart 

Play Over

All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. Because of extensive betting opportunities associated with the large number of games, there are certain days when individual analysis is not included. Thank you and God Bless . Alex Smart 

Play UNDER 

All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. Because of extensive betting opportunities associated with the large number of games, there are certain days when individual analysis is not included. Thank you and God Bless . Alex Smart 

Play UNDER 

All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. Because of extensive betting opportunities associated with the large number of games, there are certain days when individual analysis is not included. Thank you and God Bless . Alex Smart 

Play UNDER 

All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. Because of extensive betting opportunities associated with the large number of games, there are certain days when individual analysis is not included. Thank you and God Bless . Alex Smart 

Play UNDER 

Oregon calling card is based on playing sound defensive ball, and so far after 4 games have allowed an average of 61.5 ppg on the season , and in their two home games this season have allowed 57 and 47 points respectively (52 ppg). More of the same sound transitional  hoops will be on tonights agenda is a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the Total. 

OREGON is 14-1 UNDER in home games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 134.2 ppg going on the board.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (Oregon /WI-GREEN BAY) - good free throw shooting team from last season - made 72% or more of their free throws, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 97-55 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

Orlando enters this game with a hot hand from the field converting at more than 50% with their FGs in their L/3 games, but in the past this has been a signal for downturn in offensive efficiency and production as is evident by the following trend: ORLANDO is 13-3 UNDER in home games after 3 straight games where they made 50% of their shots with a combined average of 193 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Toronto enters this game off a fine defensive performance last time out, allowing the Bulls just 83 points, as they paid alot of attention to their stopping abilities  in transition .  That stronger defensive performance stemmed from criticism they received after suffering a previous loss to the Celtics, that saw some in the media call them soft defensively  and portray them as reverting back to their old ways under former HC Casey. The truth is the Raptors are a solid defensive team  ranking 6th in the league in efficiency, and With that said, Im expecting more of the same stopping action from the Raptors in the spot vs a Magic team ranked 21st in offense in the league behind a 21 st ranked pace..  

TORONTO is 17-4 UNDER  in road games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.1 ppg going on the board. ORLANDO is 24-12 UNDER  versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg getting scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (TORONTO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 38-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

NC State averaging 95.5 ppg  is going to explode offensively here tonight and St.Peters is going to have to chase them, or completely be embarrassed. This will result in a combined  score that eclipses this weak total. ST PETERS is 17-6 ATS L/23 in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 haveseen a combined average of 149.2. ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

All my college Hoops selections ( Sides/Totals) are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and overall head to head team system and player vs player analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

Play UNDER

My projections set this total at closer to 141 thus giving us value the this number to the under.

WASHINGTON ST is 20-6 UNDER  after playing a game as a road favorite with a. combined average of 127.6 ppg scored. 

CAL POLY-SLO L/10 games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 130.7 ppg scored.

CBB Road teams against the total (CAL POLY-SLO) - excellent ball handling team from last season - committed 12 or less  turnovers/game, after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers are 37-13 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER  

CAYMAN ISLANDS CLASSIC - Round 1 - John Gray Gymnasium - Cayman Islands

Georgia is a good two way team, but Defence remains their calling card. Illinois States HC Muller, i expect will look to keep his team competitive with a methodical approach which Im betting helps this score stay on the low side of the Total.. 

Muller is 9-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games as the coach of ILLINOIS ST with a combined average of 122.2 ppg scored. 

ILLINOIS ST is 12-2 UNDER  versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season with a combined average of 140.5 ppg scored.GEORGIA is 18-4 UNDER after a game where their opponent was called for 27 or more fouls with a combined average of 132 ppg going on the board.

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (GEORGIA) - poor ball handling team - committing  18 or more turnovers/game, in November games are 127-73 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GEORGIA) - explosive offensive team - scoring 84+ points/game on the season, after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games are 148-88 UNDER  L/21 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 The Kennesaw State Owls enter this game against Eastern Kentucky  averaging just  50 points on 35 percent shooting and allowing 62.5 points on 42.8 percent shooting and as a result have been manhandled in their 4 games out of the gate this season.  Their offensive production is a huge issue. Im betting their offensive efficiency  as well as a need to be methodical and defensive minded will be key in this tilt staying under the total. 

Play UNDER 

GULF COAST SHOWCASE - Round 1 - Germain Arena - Estero, FL

Both these teams have seem some fairy high scoring games in the early part of their non confernce schedule, but with both on almost a weeks rest I expect their to be some rust here and for their flow to not be conducive to a inefficient offensive output, which makes this a solid wagering investment option for UNDER bettors in this spot play.  

TULANE is 9-2 UNDER  after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (TULANE) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are 390-280 UNDER L/21 seasons for a long term 58% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (S DAKOTA ST) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games are 221-130 UNDER  L/21  seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

VANCOUVER SHOWCASE - Round 1 - Vancouver Convention Centre - Vancouver, CAN

These quality  teams have the ability to play a strong brand of defensive ball that based on taking care of the ball in transition. With that said, I expect a total score that remains on the low side of the Total. 

TEXAS A&M is 171-129 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record L/21 seasons with a combined average score of 137.1 ppg scored.

Kennedy is 20-5 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of TEXAS A&M with a combined average of 130 ppg scored. 

Pitino is 13-4 UNDER  in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games as the coach of MINNESOTA with a combined average score of 137 ppg scored.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive rebounding team - averaging 13 or more /game on the season, in November games are 61-27 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

All my college Hoops selections are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

Play UNDER 

All my college Hoops selections are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

Play OVER 

All my college Hoops selections are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

Play OVER 

All my college Hoops selections are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

All my college Hoops selections are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

Play UNDER

All my college Hoops selections are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

Play OVER 

BAHAMAS SHOWCASE - Round 2 - Kendal Isaacs Gym - Grand Bahama Island

My own projections estimate this combined score to eclipse the 160 point plateau. 

Play OVER 

JOHNNY BACH CLASSIC - Round 2 - Rose Hill Gym - New York, NY

This line Total has been pushed to nose bleed levels now making an under wager a viable investment opportunity. 

COLUMBIA is 12-3L/15  UNDER in road games in all tournament games with a combined average of 126.8 ppg going on the board. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - good offensive rebounding team - averaging 13/ or more game on the season, in November games are 61-27 UNDER L/21 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors. 

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (COLUMBIA) - good ball handling team from last season - committed 14 or less turnovers/game, after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers are 58-25 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Drakes D, was exposed to be very weak last time out by the Colorado Buffs as they allowed 101 points in a loss. Today I expect Texas State a  team that is 2-0 on the season and off scoring 97 points last time out  to also do some damage.  Drake  will Im betting reciprocate with some offensive fire works of their own , in the one facet of their game that looks to be decent and that is their offence.  DRAKE is 6-0 OVER after allowing 90 points or more over the last 3 season with the average combined score clicking in at 160 ppg.DRAKE is 6-0 OVER as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of with a combined average of 150.3 ppg going on the board.TEXAS ST is 16-4 OVER  in road games off a home win with a combined average of 142.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Both these teams are struggling to score. With Kenn State averging just 62.3 ppg and Old Dominion averaging 55.2 ppg. Both are playing methodical styles of basketball with their defences being their strong points. Kenn State allows an average og 60.5 ppg while Old Dominion allows 61.3 ppg. 

OLD DOMINION is 19-5 UNDER in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5 . 

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (/KENN ST/OLD DOMINION) - in a game involving two struggling  offensive teams (63 or less PPG)  are 100-52 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

HALL OF FAME TIP OFF - Round 1 - Mohegan Sun Arena - Uncasville, CT
For No. 18 Michigan, it could be very easy to have a letdown on Saturday given the Wolverines are going from playing the defending national champions to a winless team. Which will Im betting make for a much slower paced game than the linesmakers expect.

Neutral court teams against the total (MICHIGAN) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 69-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 


Play UNDER

The Little Rock Trojans are coached by former NBA veteran Darrell Walker. Little Rock, like ranked  Nevada, are built  to push the ball in an up-tempo pace. The Trojans are averaging 92 points in their two wins and are no pushovers . Im betting on this tilt eclipsing the Total. 

Musselman is 9-1 OVER in home games off a home win by 10 points or more as the coach of NEVADA. with a combined average of 157.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors are front runners for a Eastern Conference championship, and when these two hard nosed competitors meet this evening, Im expecting a very physical affair  that will base alot of action on each team focusing on  transitional defence. The Raptors rank 9th in defensive efficiency while the Celtics rank 1st in Defensive efficiency.  Im betting on  a post season type affair that will not be very free flowing and a end result of a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total. None of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed the total.

TORONTO is 16-5 UNDER in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 200.9 ppg scored.  

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 4-0 UNDER this season and  36-14 UNDER  L/22 seasons for  a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

JAMAICA CLASSIC - Round 1 - Montego Bay Convention Centre - Jamaica

My projections based on both teas systems, suggests a total closer to 141. Thus giving us value on what my numbers say is a bloated number, based on only recent performance data.

GEORGETOWN is 17-6 UNDER  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 139.5 ppg scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GEORGETOWN) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after 2 straight games where both teams score 75 points or more re 29-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER

  BAHAMAS SHOWCASE - Round 1 - Kendal Isaacs Gym - Grand Bahama Island

This steamed up to 155 after the opening and is now inflated enough for me to recommend we  make a under wager here. Not sure where all the initial action came from but it was bolstered by public money and very little if any sharp money. Perceptions lead to irrational exuberance, as both these teams have come gang busters with offensive explosions in their games, but both actually key their successes and failures on playing good D, and thats what Im expecting here today.

GA SOUTHERN is 7-0 UNDER  in road games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 135.9 ppg scored.FLA ATLANTIC is 6-0 UNDER  off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 136.2 ppg scored. 

CBB  teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (GA SOUTHERN) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (FLA ATLANTIC) - with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 41-18 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

My own projections based on system vs systems analysis, suggests this total should be closer to 131. Thus giving us value on this line to the under. UC Irvine is a defence first team that has allowed 64.7 ppg so this season in 3 tilts. Meanwhile, Santa Clara scored 64 points in their lone game, vs Grand Prairie and should struggle again vs this D. Im betting on a methodical approach here from Santa Clara, in an effort to stay competitive.  This will result in a low scoring affair.

UC-IRVINE is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 126.8 ppg scored. SANTA CLARA in their L/8 home game where the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 131.4 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

My projections estimate that BYU should score in the upper 70s while Oral Roberts should put in the low sixties on the board. Projected 76-to 79 points for BYU 61-64 for Oral Roberts. We have value here on this number as the combined score should project at or above 148.

  ORAL ROBERTS is 11-2 OVER  after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 153.5 ppg scored.ORAL ROBERTS is 14-4 OVER  versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons.BYU L/6 after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less over the last 3 seasons have seen the followup see a combined score of 153.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets will bang heads tonight in what promises to be a physical affair. The Warriors will be without the often injured Step Curry but are expected to  have Draymond Green back in the lineup  but may not play a great deal becasue of a toe issue, which should slow their offensive production and see them more concentrated on sound defensive play. The Warriors as per news reports and obvious on court confrontations among themselves , are showing us what its like when this many big egos are put into the same dressing room. But when the game starts their still a team to contend with and Im betting come out here and play hard as a team. Meanwhile, the Rockets thanks to keeping pretty boy Carmelo Anthony on the sidelines , are a more rugged team , behind a under rated defense continues to improve as is evident by a 6th overall ppg defesnive ranking and a methodical calculated pace that is 29th in the league. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 73-31 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Portland has gone under the total in 7 of their L/8 games thanks to playing a top tier brand of defence, that has seen them hold 4 different opponents to 93 points or less. The Blazers own the leagues 5th best D ,both in points allowed  106.2 and efficiency 105.9 and will primed to grind the free wheeling Lakers down in this spot and not allow them flow. This Im betting takes a more than enough points off this totals number to seen this score stay on the low side of the digits. Note: Lakers games have had some bloated Totals attached to them which has resulted in 7 of their L/8 games and and 5 in row failing to eclipse the total . The L/7 meetings here in LA between these two teams have stayed under the total.

Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 overall.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 3-0-1 in Lakers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0-1 in Lakers last 5 home games.Under is 6-0-1 in Lakers last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-2 in Lakers last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2-1 in Lakers last 8 Wednesday games.

 Portland is 13-4 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 23-10 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.8 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 46-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 49-20 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

Duke scored 118 points in their opener vs Kentucky,  and 97 points vs Army in their last game at home,, and it does not matter what E.Michigan does to slow this game down Duke will score at will and run and gun the visitors into the ground behind a  pro style offence and could come close to eclipsing this total all by themselves.

DUKE is 11-0 OVER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 165.6 ppg scored.DUKE is 8-0 OVER ( off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons eith a combined average of 174.5 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

UL Monroe is really out classed here by Michigan State , and despite of having some decent cogs in the backcourt, just ant hang with this type of team and will struggle to put points up on the board. With that said, I expect them to try to slow this game down to crawl in order to compete, as they did in their game against the  Texas Longhorns losing by 65-55 count. It must be noted that MSU HC Izzo is troubled that his team is averaging 17 turnovers, leading to 18.5 points per game off them. The first two opponents have shot 45.0 percent overall and 42.9 percent on 3-point tries and Im betting he has his team trying to make sure their defensive issues are worked on vs a lower tier team.LA-MONROE is 18-8 UNDER   as a road underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons. MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 2 seasons.

Izzo is 13-5 UNDER after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games as the coach of MICHIGAN ST with a combined average of 132.1 ppg scored.

 on the UNDER 

Drake allowed just 52 points in its opener, and will not be easily scored upon hereby a methodical and very young Colorado offence that is playing their first game of the season. Fluidity could be a problem for the Buffs, but their D, should be well prepared to be physical with a Drake team that will run and gun if allowed. 

DRAKE is 11-2 UNDER L/13  as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points  with a combined average score of 127.2 ppg scored. COLORADO is 24-11 UNDER  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 142 ppg scored.

Play on UNDER 

My own projections estimate we have value on this total right to the 147.5 range. Coastal Carolina has averaged 88 ppg in offence in their first two games, while Tulane looked weak on defence last time out, in their only game allowing 80 points. Im betting on More of the same action here , as Coastal lights up the board vs a unorganized defensive group, and Tulanes response  will be to respond or be blown off the court, which will in turn help this game eclipse the Total. 

COASTAL CAROLINA is 14-4 OVER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 150 ppg going on the scoreboard.TULANE is 24-10 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 149 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

The Clippers' own a  defensive-minded backcourt buoyed by  Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. This duo and other parts of this team were put together, in part, to  deal with explosive backcourts like the one from the they will play tonight. However, that talented  backcourt of the Warriors has some injuries, and could possibly be without Curry tonight . Tonight Im betting , that the Clippers HC Head coach Doc Rivers  will use two full rotations of players, to be fresh enough to be physical and control the Warriors speed. This should mute some flow from this game, and thus scratch a few points off the expected combined score, in a game Im betting that will result in a under wager cashing for us in this spot. 

LA CLIPPERS are 117-85 UNDER  in home games after a non-conference game with the combined average score of 197.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 80-49 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 198.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 38-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216 ppg going n the score board. 

Play UNDER 

Kansas States HC Webers system and calling card has always been based on playing a solid brand of defensive ball. But today against a lower tier non conference team ( Denver), I expect the Wildcats to be a little more free wheeling, and for this total to be eclipsed. 

DENVER is 18-8 OVER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 150.9 ppg .DENVER is 12-3 OVER   in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 151.8 ppg. 

Play OVER 

These are two teams and coaches  that base their successes and failures on playing top tier defence. 

The Utes have three 7-footers on their roster (Novak Topalovic, Jayce Johnson and Brandon Morley). They rank 19th in the nation in average height (78.4 inches). They use their height well within this system of tough inside play and good rebounding. Minnesota's  physcial Big 10 group will reciprocate with some strong physical action of their own in what Im betting will be a low scoring affair. 

UTAH is 18-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 141.4 ppg scored. Krystkowiak is 35-22 UNDER  when the total is 140 to 149.5 as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 142.8 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Raptors can run and gun behind an explosive offense , but their defence is under rated and currently ranked 8th in DEF Rating efficiency (106.7 ppg)  behind the 10th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Pelicans, in the early part of this season were seen as a all out one attacking team, that trys to outscore their opponents on the run. But their last two wins have been predicated by playing top tier brand of defence, that kept those opponents at 99 points or less. Im betting the success of those above mentioned outings and victories will see Gentrys troops alot more focused on playing top tier defence in a unfriendly road environment against a dangerous opponent. Look for an expect a more muted total combined score than the linesmakers number might suggest.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 37-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a 216combined average score of 216 ppg going on the board.

Play on the UNDER 

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies turned to their defense to even their record 1-1 with a 67-36 win versus Jackson State and that will be their key in this game vs Niagara. 

Schmidt is 34-17 UNDER  in road games in non-conference games as the coach of ST BONAVENTURE with a combined average of 138.8 ppg scored. 

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (ST BONAVENTURE) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 10+ wins in last 12 games, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 31-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Milwaukee comes at their opponents with a run and gun take no prisoners attitude, and essentially force any all opponents to partake with some offensive fireworks of their own this  or be blown off the court. The Bucks rank 4th in pace and 2nd in offence (121 .7 ppg) in the league a even though the Nuggets operate at a slower pace, Im betting they will have to up their speed or like I said get crushed by a high flying group. The Nuggets are on a couple days rest so they will be ready . One last thing, I know the thin air of Denver, can take its toll on visiting squads, but the Bucks are one of the leagues best conditioned teams and should have no problems with energy despite of playing last night. 

The L/2 meetings (lat season) have seem combined scores of 253 and 257 poinss going on the board. 

DENVER is 47-24 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7ppg scored. 

MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER 

This is a Kings team that will be playing the second night of a home back-to-back games, and Im expecting them to be more tempered in their approach tonight on tired legs. The Kings last 4 home games have stayed under the Total, and it must be noted that SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams like the Lakers - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.8 ppg on the scoreboard. I know the Lakers on a couple days rest should be fresh, and ready to run but with addition of veteran Tyson Chandler into the Lakers lineup I expect the way the Lakers play will be more balanced with a greater respect and attention placed on playing good defence. The Lakers early season defensive inefficiencies and their explosive offensive weapons have seen recent games see high totals attached to their tilts, and as a result these over compensations have seen 4 straight games stay under the total, and tonight Im betting this Total is also to high. 

SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER  after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons and overall is 24-9 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 season with the combined average score of the home games clicking in at 205.8 ppg. SACRAMENTO in their L/8 home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games have seen a combined average score of 199.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Sixers played an intense game against Charlotte last night, winning 133-132 in OT and will now be playing their 5th game since Nov 3.  Needless to say the Sixers should be on tired legs and in not way or shape ready to run here tonight and will have to rely to an extent on  their defence to be competitive which is ranked 10th in the league in efficiency   Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are back to being a team that was feared prior to last season, behind a  top tier D , as is evident by having held 5 diff opponents under 97 points and rank No.1 in the league in points allowed   (100.6 ) and 30th in pace . Their  29th  ranked offense tells a story of a methodical side, that bases it successes and failures on defence and tonight Im betting nothing changes. 

MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.6 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA in their L/40 in road games off a close home win by 3 points or less have seen a combined average score of 195.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS/PHILADELPHIA ) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 204.3 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Syracuse D, looked tremendous in their opener vs E.Washington holding their opposition to just 34 points in methodical fashion. A repeat looks to be on todays agenda vs a Morehead State team on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 days. 

SYRACUSE is 8-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of  with a combined average of 123.3 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER

 Texas and Cal Irvine both put up alot of points in their first games, with Texas winning 93-82 vs Savannah State, and Cal Irvincd smasing Idaho 86-68. But from a matchup analysis trends sheet I use based on the type of systems both teams use, Im expecting a lower scoring affair here tonight. 

HC Kennedy in his L/18 games after scoring 85 points or more as the coach of TEXAS A&M has sen a combined average score of 139.2 ppg scored. HC Turner in 250 games in all lined games as the coach of UC-IRVINE has seen a combined average score of 136.6 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Portland can run and gun with the best of teams, but they can also be very tough to deal with defensively, as is evident by  having  held 3 of their L/6 opponents to 93 points or less. The teams they limited were Indiana ( 93) Houston (85) and Minnesota (81). Against this type of free wheeling Clippers team, Im betting behind their 5th best ppg D, and a pace that ranks 17th in the league they force the visitor to adapt to their pace, which will take the Clippers flow away and as result will effect the total offensive combined output of this affair. 

Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 overall.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

PORTLAND is 21-10 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with at the average combined score clicking in at 205.8 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 36-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Linesmakers out of the gate like to over compensate on games involving Evansville, because of their methodical system. From a matchup analysis system vs system player vs player power ranking totals system I use this Total is beatable to the over. My projections place this game against Illinois in the 152 range giving us value. 

EVANSVILLE is 15-5 OVER  in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 and is 27-10 OVER  in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997/

Play OVER 

This selection is based on a score projection algorithm trend  that I have been using for close to a decade. It has converted at 62% clip over 722 game selection sample. 

GEORGE WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER  in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the OVER 

Chicago enters this road game  vs New Orleans banged up with Lauri Markkanen (elbow), Kris Dunn (knee), Bobby Portis (knee) and Denzel Valentine (ankle) all expected to miss Wednesday's game which should slow them offensively tonight in the Bayou. Note: Chicago ranks 22nd in offence in the league, and 25th in pace. Meanwhile, New Orleans is playing their first home game since embarking on a gruelling 5 game road trip against some explosive opponents that have seen a lot of  offense  ( Denver, San Antonio, Portland, Godlen St. Oklahoma City). Still recuperating and getting acclimated to playing at home again Im betting they won't be fresh enough to want to run and gun with wreck-less abandon and will be also out to make sure their defensive haemorrhaging stops which has them ranked last in the league ppg allowed. My projections estimate a projected combined score in the range of 224 which gives us value on this number. Ive also taken into consideration rule changes which have added to offensive outputs , so our cushion according to those estimations give us an edge to the UNDER. 

HC Gentry Pelicans   in their L/21  home games when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%)  have seen a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. Gentry L/19   in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen he and his opponents coming to average 222.7 ppg in offensives output. 

CHICAGO in its L/24 games  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a struggling team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 26-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

LATE STEAM- My projections estimate a combined score in the range of 150+ giving us value on the offered number. Im estimating that W.Carolina scores in the low to mid 60s on offence. Note:W CAROLINA is 8-0 OVER in road games when they score 61 to 66 points in a game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 153.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

 These teams can be explosive offensively but the lines-makers are in my humble opinion over estimating total output . I base my own assumptions/projections on my power ranking systems, and head to head systems matchup analysis. They point to a total closer to 224 , which gives us value to the under on this current number. Yes, their have been some higher scoring variables because of some rule changes  in the NBA this season but I have calculated that into those above mentioned projections. 

PORTLAND is 20-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board.MILWAUKEE in their L/25 games after after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 224.3 ppg go on the board. 

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Portland.

NBA team (PORTLAND/MILWAUKEE) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 48-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average combined score clicking in at 189.6 ppg. 

Play on the UNDER 

Im expecting a physical game between these to teams tonight and a score that remains on the low side of the number,

Izzo is 24-14 UNDER  as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.Self is 21-11 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games in November games as the coach of KANSAS.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 10+ wins in last 12 games, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

 The Wizards enter this game ranked last in the league in points allowed (129.3)  and were booed off the floor this past Friday night by their fans after a ugly 134-111 effort.  I  now expect the Wizards a side that has a 25th ranked off Ranking (106.1) to bring some energy to this tilt and to be more attentive and methodical in transition which Im betting takes some points off what is expected by the lines makers from the Wizards and from both teams. Note: Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Meanwhile, the Knicks behind a young roster have settled down after a slow start and are playing more disciplined system, that has them ranked 9th in points allowed, behind a pace that is ranked 24th in the league (98.7) and a offence that is ranked 23rd in the league (107.3 ppg). What Im betting on happening here is for the Knicks to continue their current form, and for Washington to try to be more stout defensively, which will result in a score that does not eclipse this Total.

Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Under is 4-0-1 in Wizards last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NEW YORK is 45-29 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.8 ppg.

WASHINGTON's L/50 games  against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average score of 218.2 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 23-3 UNDER 22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.  

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or more) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%) are 62-28 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Indiana is  a defence first team enters this game against Boston with the 3rd ranked points per game allowed D at 102.9ppg, while their offensive output is ranked at 22nd in the league (108.6 ppg) , Their pace is ranked 29 out of 30 teams (96.4). Meanwhile, the Cletics a team becomign well know for their defensive proficiencies, is ranked first in points allowed (99.5 ppg) and first in defensive rating (99.2) and 17th in pace (100.3) and just 28th in offensive output averaging (104.2 ppg). Today I expect two teams that key their defensive abilities o their successes and failures to continue on this course and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 203 ppg.

Play UNDER 

The NBA season started with a lot off fast paced games as the exuberance of a new season on fresh legs made for for some high scoring affairs. Now with a few games under them, I expect the league as a whole to start to centre some thought on playing a more energy saving type of hoops.

Focusing on these two teams  the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors  in particular it must be noted that they have now played 3 games in less in 5 days so running and gunning at full tilt for long stretches may not be sensible option  tonight if the coaches of these teams hope to keep their troops fresh during what can be a gruelling extended schedule. Also knowing the Raptors current mind set about playing a more disciplined defensive style this season behind the leagues top two way forward Kawhi Leonard, it makes a lot of sense that they will be out to slow down a Hornets team that looks to be in an offensive groove at the moment, with a more methodical approach. 

My own projections for this game suggest a maximum combined total of 220 points being scored, and with a 6 point edge according to my own numbers I feel like we have enough value to take the under here.  Also from an extensive data base of league wide trends no average combined total from a 2000 games sample size went above my 220 point projections. While new  data can change in the flash of an eye and nothing is a sure bet, I still feel we have an edge on this slightly bloated Total. Its all about slight edges in our battle with the books and their astute line making abilities.

From the six combined games these teams have played only one has seen more than 225 points scored, and that was the Raptors 117-113 win vs Washington. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 105 points or more are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Looking at last years matchups in this series , The Kings beat the Pelicans, 116-109 in overtime and 114-101, in New Orleans while the Pelicans prevailed in both games in Sacramento, 114-106 and 114-101. Im expecting a similar type combed score here tonight. I know both teams put up a boatload full of points in wide open tilts last time out, but a more muted effort after exerting that much energy  and converting at such a high level is a above average probability occurrence in this spot. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, team that had a winning record last season are 27-6  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking at 204 ppg. Also From an extensive data base of more than 2000 games played in the invoicing the Pelicans and other NBA teams the average of tonights  score in similar multiple trends situations is in range between 217 and 224 ppg. So despite of their being no obvious guarantees their still is evidence of this number being slightly bloated thus giving us value.

Play UNDER 

The public with a little bit of irrational exuberance  has hit this game hard to go over on the opening Total. However, I myself am expecting  a more constrained defensive effort from both teams as the game progresses despite of this being the opening game of the season on prime time tv. Both teams were ranked top 5 in overall efficiency and overall defensive stats last season, and both were proficient in limiting FG to under 50%. 

Looking at the Boston Celtics they are now introducing two new cogs into their lineup and it may slow them to an extent as Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward come back from injuries. Im betting both despite of being big time scorers  take time to  acclimated to the speed of the game  after being off for extended periods of time and it  will take time before they become more cohesive and  jell with their team-mates. Add to that the Sixers usually play at a much faster pace, so the Celtics who had a 102.9 defensive rating at home last season, will primed to slow these guys down as much as possible, in order to throw them out of rhythm and control the pace to their liking. Last years play off experience Im betting pays off here this evening. 

BOSTON L/62 games when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 201.3 ppg go on the board. 

These teams went under in 3 of 4 meetings last season. The one that did go over was on neutral court in London England. 

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - Golden St. leads 1-0

Both sides actually played decent defense in game 1 in an intense affair, where LeBron James stood tall as the Cavaliers top scorer and two way threat. The Cavs played well and still lost, so now I'm expecting the Cavs to take a no prisoners nothing to lose attitude and go balls to the walls in an all out  attack mode here ere in game 2 .  I'm also  betting defense takes a  back seat and instead an all out offensive explosion based on a fast transitional game to be the this agenda. Note: Cleveland  has gone OVER 6 straight times as a underdog off a game as a pup where  Lebron James was the high scorer, eclipsing the number by an average of 18 ppg with the total combined score clicking at 239+ ppg. Meanwhile, the Warriors  have gone over 8 straight times by more than 14 ppg with more than one day of rest off a 10 plus point victory  as   home chalk when facing a team they have beaten at least two straight times.

CLEVELAND is 30-17 OVER   off a road loss over the last couple of  seasons with a combined average score of 221 ppg getting scored.CLEVELAND is 17-8 OVER   after allowing 115 points or more this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 60-24 OVER  L/21 years for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 2 days rest are 26-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1


This series very much favors the Golden State Warriors. The Cavs have shown a lot of weaknesses in these play offs, and the Warriors with a championship now clearly in sight will come at the Cavaliers with a take no prisoners attitude . The biggest weakness for the Cavaliers has been their defense this season, and I'm expecting we see the Dubs No.1 ranked offense to really show us how explosive they are here tonight. Note: Cleveland is ranked 29th in the NBA Defensive effecnicy rating ( 111.9) .

The Cavaliers no. 5 ranked offense (110.9 ppg) behind LeBron James will have no choice but to answer back or be blown off the court in humiliating fashion, which I'm betting will contribute to this combined score easily eclipsing this total.

Over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 NBA Championship games.Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 NBA Championship games.

The Cavs have gone over 8 straight times as a 7+ point dog with two-plus days rest when facing a side that beat them two straight times, going over by an average of more than 15 ppg. The Warriors have gone OVER in 6 straight times by an average of 16.5 ppg with more than one day of rest off a road victory in a road game facing an opponent averaging fewer than four blocks per game.

CLEVELAND is 31-14 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220+ ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATEs L/69 home games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points have seen a combined average score of 222.7 ppg scored. Five of the L/6 times these teams have met have seen this Totals number eclipsed.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND/GOLDEN STATE ) - in the 1rst game of a playoff series 28--8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 219.4 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

Game 7 - Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets (Tied 3-3)

Since this series started I have stated that it would be won by the best defense, and not the explosive offenses these teams have exhibited all season long. For the most part both teams have done a tremendous job of slowing each other down and the games have consistently stayed on the low side of the total and I'm betting nothing changes tonight. It must be noted that Golden State have only played two tilts all season in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted and they came during this series. Meanwhile, the Rockets have played only five contests this season where they have had fewer than 14 assists. Three of the five have happened during this series. These teams tell a story about the consistency of both these under rated defenses.

The Rockets have gone under 13 straight times at home off a game as a underdog going against an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game staying under by almost 18 ppg. The Warriors have gone under 7 straight times with less than five days rest after a game in which they had three-plus players with twenty-plus points going under by an average of 13.7 ppg.

Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 Conference Finals games.Under is 16-5 in Rockets last 21 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 35-16 in Rockets last 51 vs. Western Conference.Under is 34-16-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.



Under is 5-1 in Warriors' last 6 road games.
Under is 16-5 in Rockets' last 21 vs. NBA Pacific.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Conference Finals games.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 92-49 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more are 83-46 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

I'm betting this deciding game 7 will be an all out nasty physical affair that stays on the low side of the number. Boston will be out to pressure James and with Love out with an injury  concentrate on making the super stars life miserable.  In this series, James has averaged 39 points per game at home, 27.7 per in the three games in Boston, which is more than 11 ppg less. .Cleveland's veteran core has struggled with their offensive game in Boston and the defense I expect to be ready to compete in what should be an all out hard-core defensive tit for tat punchem out  battle.  note: BOSTON is 12-3 UNDER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over dating back to last season with the average combined score of 195.3 ppg scored. The Celtics have also gone UNDER 8 straight times, when the line is within 3 of pick off a defeat as an away dog when going against  an opponent averaging less than 4 blocks per game, staying under by more than 20 ppg.

Also the Celtics  have  gone under 8 straight times by more than 14 points  off a game as a underdog in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws .Meanwhile,  Cleveland has gone under 9 straight times as a pup off a win as a home chalk  in which their opposition shot under 60% from the free throw line. Shooting badly from the charity stripe is sometimes related to exhaustion issues , which both sides will exhibit here this evening and this will also contribute to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers might expect.

Under is 4-1 in the L/5 meetings here in Boston. Cleveland has gone under in 15 of their 21 after an ATS win which happened in game 6.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - HOU Leads 3-2

This series is becoming intense and defense and not offense I'm betting will win this series. Golden State needs this game badly, or a surprising elimination from the post season will be on tomorrows media agenda. With that said, you can bet the Dubs will come out with all guns blazing, but the Rockets under rated D, will be primed to slow them down. On the other end of the court , Houston 's offense has been sputtering , and James Harden is slumping offensively and Chris Paul is out, so great deal of emphasis for the Rockets will center on their defense. Under the total is my call this evening.

 Golden State has gone under 16 straight times  as a rested favorite of at least five points when they are off a game in which they rebounded 15% or less of their own misses. Houston  has gone UNDER 11 straight times by an average of more than 13 ppg after a game with 8+ lead changes and has stayed under 8 straight times by more than 17.6 ppg with less than two days rest off a home win when they are facing a side that is averaging more than five blocks per game.

HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with the combined average score of 201.2 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined score of  203.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 34-18 UNDER   in home games in all playoff games since 1996 with t combined average of 205.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 48-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-

This is a big game, and neither of these teams want to make mistakes here. With that said, I'm betting on a methodical and  very physical game especially from the Celtics as they look to slow down the Cavaliers sometimes explosive offensive attack via newly implemented bigger lineup. But don't underestimate the Cavs ability to push back and push back hard as is evident by the following trends.Cleveland have gone under 16 straight times  with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field. In their last eight tilts  under those perimeters the Cavaliers have  allowed an average of just  90.9 ppg. 

BOSTON is 16-4 UNDER  in the 6th game of a playoff series since 1996 with the average combined score clicking in at 182.4 ppg. Boston has gone UNDER 10 straight times by an average of more 12 ppg  as a dog with rest after a game as a home favorite in which they scored a least 18 fast break points .

Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a straight up loss. Under is 11-4 in Cavaliers last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 90 points or less are 87-48 UNDER L/21 seasons for 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

 Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The last two meetings in this series have stayed under by more than 20 points. At the start of this series I suggested that the series would be won by the team that exhibited the best ability to control the others explosive offense. I'm expecting both sides to be physical tonight when defending and for them to move the ball around a lot when in the offensive end , which will result in a lot of clock eating taking place which I'm betting will result in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers are obviously expecting. 
  
 The  Rockets have gone under 12 straight times with rest off a victory as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field,  and have gone under 13 straight times at home    when the line is within 3 of pick after a win in which they made fewer field goals than their opponent. 
  Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone under 8 straight times with less than two days rest off a loss as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER  versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 201.7 ppg going on the board.HOUSTON is 21-8 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 209.2 ppg. HOUSTON is 13-3 UNDER  after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg getting scored. Houston's HC D'Antoni is 30-6 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 212.6 ppg scored.

Golden States HC Kerr is 18-5 UNDER  L/23 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more with the combined average score clicking in at 209.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play UNDER
  
 
  
 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Cleveland had a hard time finding their scoring touch in the first two games of this series, here in Boston, but I'm betting they solved their offensive  problems and the way Celtics HC Stevens was playing them. With that said, I now expect the Cavs to continue with a cohesive attack, and for the Celtics to come back with some offensive fire works of their own here in their own building, where they play their best hoops,  in a tilt I have pegged to go over the number.  Note: Cleveland has seen a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored on the road this season while the Celtics have seen a combined average of 206.5 ppg scored on their won home court. I'm betting on the combined score to fall in between these to totals parameters tonight. Note: BOSTON is 15-4 OVER when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game this season with the combined average score clicking in at 208.8 ppg.

The Cavaliers have gone OVER 15 straight times by more than 18 ppg  with rest off a home game when their last four games are L-L-W-W and their opponent is off a loss. The Celtics have gone OVER 17 straight times  off a loss in which they had a basket-assisted percentage (BAP) of 80% or less, and at least nine percentage points higher than their opponent's BAP.

BOSTON is 22-10 OVER   in home games versus below defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 221.7 ppg going on the board.BOSTON is 14-4 OVER   in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 214.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

I finally expecting for the Cavaliers to come out here in front of their own fans and leave everything on the floor as they make an effort to make a comeback in this series down 2-0. Last time out  James had 42 points for the Cavs,  and Love 22 ,but the rest of team looked old bored and worn out. Its not like they cant wake up as a group on occasion,  as was evident vs the Pacers and Raptors , because they can. With that said, tonight  I'm  now betting the Cavs as a whole  after that embarrassment  will be firing on all cylinders offensively and that they will force the Celtics into reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court. My own projections estimate that both teams will hit the 105 point plateau. Note: BOSTON is 20-1 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season and CLEVELAND is 24-7 OVER  in home games when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game over the last few seasons and are 35-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season.

CLEVELAND is 21-12 OVER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 16-6 OVER in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.9 ppg going on the board. CLEVELAND  in 20 games  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season have seen a combined average score of 216.8 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 22-11 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. BOSTON is 24-13 OVER L/37  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored.

NBA  team (BOSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 49-22 OVER L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the OVER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

 Golden State ratcheted up their D in game 1 and showed us how tough they really are. I cant bring myself to bet against the Dubs SU, no matter what the circumstances are if their completely healthy, which they are. Meanwhile, Houston must  also come out and play physical  D, if they have any chance of getting back into this series, which I also have my doubts about. What I am confident about is that this game will be more grinding then game one and much more physical. Houston owns the 6th ranked Defensive effecnicy in the league, and Golden State is very under rated from a defensive perspective but must be respected behind a boat load full of talent. Look for the Rockets to leave everything on the floor here and for Golden State to break the Rockets by  slowing  their opponents offensive flow down. This will result in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are anticipating.

HOUSTON is 13-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with the combined average score  of 205.9 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER    in home games versus very good shooting teams - making  48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 214 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 15-3  L/18 UNDER   in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better )  with a combined average of 207.3 ppg scored.

Golden State in their  27 games as a road underdog have seen a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 UNDER   after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 UNDER  off a road win this season with a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 UNDER    in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON/GOLDEN STATE ) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 114-98 L/5  UNDER seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

These explosive offenses Golden State and Houston have been off for a while after clinching their play off series in quick order . This will I'm betting effect their overall flow and effect the total combined score. I'm also expecting defense to win this series and not offense. It must be noted that the Rockets rank 7th in in points allowed and 6th in defensive rating, and their 13th in PACE. Meanwhile, The Warriors, 11th in defensive rating, and must not be underestimated in their ability to clamp down behind a boatload full of talent. With that said, I am recommending we take an under stance here in game 1 on what during the regular season may have seemed like a legitimate total, but here in play off action with so much on the line, Defense will reign supreme and the number looks high.

HOUSTON is 12-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or higher) with a combined average score of 206.2 ppg.GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 L/8 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average score of 217.8 ppg scored.

These teams have gone under in 5 of the L/6 meetings in Houston.. Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games..Under is 21-8-1 in Warriors last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 46-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 96-49 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - GSW Leads 3-1

The explosive Golden State Warriors with a chance to clinch this series vs the New Orleans Pelicans will come out here with all guns blazing, and the Pelicans who can also score in bunches will have no other choice but to open up with some offensive fire works of their own or be blown of the court. This game either goes back and forth as both feed off each others energy, or the Warriors romp and the Pelicans chase. Which ever of these likely scenarios emerges , the end result I'm betting will see the combined score  eclipse this Total.  It must also be noted that both teams are well rested , 2 days off, which bodes well for a high energy run and gun affair.

My own projections estimate that both sides will score north of +105 points. GOLDEN STATE is 35-11 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average score of 234.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 52-14 OVER L/22 seasons  for a 79% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 232 ppg going on the board .

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Celtics and the Sixers will resume to long time rivalry in the first game of this 2nd round play off matchup this Monday night. I'm expecting the Celtics to make this a physically, grinding series as they look to slow down their opponents explosive offensive attack, and to be hell bent on controlling the boards, especially in their own end, where the Sixers have been rebound behemoths on offense this season. The Celtics base their successes and failures on their ability to play D, and here in game one with key contributor Jaylen Brown expected to miss or be less than 100% the Celtics are really going to depend on their superior defending capabilities vs the run and gun Sixers. It must also be noted that the Sixers have been off since Tuesday, and may show some rust here vs a side that I'm betting will be physical with them. Meanwhile, the Celtics are off a grueling 7 game series with the Bucks and will not have the legs or emotional drive to run here tonight. The above combinations should see this tilt remain on the low side of the Total.

Asked Sunday for keys to defeating the Celtics, Sixers coach Brett Brown said, "Just how you're gonna score. ... They're an excellent defensive team. We respect them with what they do defensively and I think they're clever offensively

BOSTON is 11-3 UNDER   versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg scored.Brown is 33-17 UNDER    in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 199 ppg scored. Stevens is 42-17 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-16 UNDER l/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

Three of the four games these teams played against each other this season resulted in high scoring affairs. The two most recent games have seen 246, and 240 points scored. These teams are electric offensively and feed off of each others attacks in transition. I'm betting if Golden State wants to beat the streaking Pelicans their going to have to score in bunches, and I am equally confident   that the Pelicans can produce some offensive fireworks of their own in a opening game that I have pegged to go OVER the total. Note: New Orleans has scored 111, 119, 131 in their L/3 games.

NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 OVER  when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 227.7 ppg.NEW ORLEANS is 22-12 OVER  after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 226.4 ppg scored ( NO beat PORT 131-123 L/time out)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 54-14 OVER L/22  seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 233 ppg going on the score board.

Play on the OVER

San Antonio's defense  did not look good towards the tail end of the season and allowed 105 or more points in 7 off their L/10 games overall including 122 to New Orleans in their season finale. Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 road games.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games. Meanwhile, Golden State also struggled on defense for long stretches this season, ranking 18th overall allowing 107.5 ppg . Their saving grace was and always will be their offense , which was ranked first in the league this season (113.5 ppg) , behind the 5th fastest pace ( 99.6).
Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 home games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.
What I'm betting happens tonight is that the Warriors will come out in full attack mode, and force the Spurs into keeping pace with some offensive fireworks of their own  or be blown of the court. This will lead to a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers expect.

GOLDEN STATE L/20 games when playing against a team with a winning record have seen a combined average of 218.3 ppg go on the board.

SAN ANTONIO is 9-0 OVER  in road games in April games dating back to last season.GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 OVER L/17 in all playoff games with the total combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER