My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Defence is ley to the Lakers success and failures and nothing will change tonight as Im betting they control the pace of this tilt. Note: The Lakers have gone under in 6 of their L/7 games. Meanwhile, the Suns are also playing a top tier brand of D, of late not allowing 3 of their L/5 opponents to breach the 99 point plateau. 

Lakers are 2nd in ppg allowed in the league and own the 17th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Suns, rank 4th in ppg allowed and 29th in pace. 

LA LAKERS are 11-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 210.2 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 13-2 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season with a combined average of 209.8 ppg. LA LAKERS are 12-3 UNDER  as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.4 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 31-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

My projections estimate a combined score of closer 231 which gives us a more than one possession edge. Note: The Nuggets in 10 of their L/13 road games have not eclipsed this total. 

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.are 89-35 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 71-31 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The key to the Lakers successes and failures are based around their defence, which ranks 2nd in ppg in the league. Nothing will change today, vs a Golden State team that wants to run , as they control the speed here behind the 17th ranked pace, in a tilt I have projected to stay on the low side of the number. 

GOLDEN STATE is 18-7 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.2 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 24-7 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 14-5 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.

LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 210.3 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 12-2 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season with a combined average of 209.9 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 16-4 UNDER  vs. horrible rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.7 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 42-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

Atlanta enters this game having gone over in 10 of the L/11 tilts  and Im betting they're usual run and gun speed will continue into this game behind the 9th ranked offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Miami after being dormant and unhealthy earlier in the season, have now seen 5 of their L/7 go over the total behind a offense that has generated 112 plus ppg, in their L/5 . In division games the Heat, have seen a combined average of 228.4 ppg scored. Everything points to this being a vulnerable total, for a over wager to cash.Over is 6-0 in Hawks last 6 games following a ATS loss.Over is 7-0 in Hawks last 7 games following a straight up loss. Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 games as a road underdog.

Play OVER 

Im betting on these two top tier teams taking part in a play off style game with alot of physicality. This will help keep this score on the low side of the number. Under is 15-7 in Bucks last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. LA CLIPPERS are 15-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Both these teams offences are clicking on all cylinders entering this tilt. The Suns have averaged 127.4 ppg in their L/5 trips to the court, while, the Bulls have scored 120, 122 and 133 in their L/3 overall and rank 5th in ppg on offence this season, and rank 5th in pace. When projecting a combined score my number is closer to 231 which gives us a full possession edge according to calculations to the over.

The Suns have gone over in 8 of their L/9. 

PHOENIX is 11-1 OVER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season with a combined average of 235.3 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 41-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 31-9 OVER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

The Kings were smashed by the Knicks 140-121 on Thursday in New York and now on tired legs I expect them to play very little defence again, and just try to keep pace here in what Im betting will resemble an all star game shootout. Im also predicting that the Kings put  111 to 116  points on the board.  SACRAMENTO is 20-4 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 242.1 ppg scored.

Tonight my projections estimate that the Pistons will score upward of 112 to 116 points,DETROIT is 33-1 OVER  when they score 112 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO in 24 games   when they allow 112 or more points in a game this season have seen a combined average of 241.1 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

 Washington has played a grueling schedule of late against top tier squads over a relatively short period of time, and will now be on tired legs here in the high altitudes of Denver, which is never a easy endeavor. Also when considering the Nuggets 28th ranked pace my projections looks for a combined score that remains on the low side of the offered total.

WASHINGTON is 10-1 UNDER  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.7 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

 NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 53-22 OVER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

My projections estimate that the Suns will score 112- 117 points here this evening vs the Charlotte Hornets. CHARLOTTE is 14-1 OVER   when they allow 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 235.5 ppg . PHOENIX is 11-2 OVER  when they score 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 235,4 ppg scored.  PHOENIX is 10-0 OVER  when they score 117 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 240.3 ppg scored. I also project the Hornets to put at least 105 points on the board, which is also a good omen for a over wager to cash as CHARLOTTE is 16-3 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season.Over is 7-0 in Hornets last 7 games as a road underdog with a combined average of 232 ppg scored.

Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 overall.

Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or more ), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5 TO's or less ) are 67-30 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 33-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better  of their shots are 36-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Dallas has gone over in 7 straight times and 8 of their L/9 games overall, while their opponents tonight the Grizzlies have gone over the total 11 of their L/13 overall. Over is 8-0 in Grizzlies last 8 games as an underdog including 6 straight on the road.Over is 6-0 in Mavericks last 6 games as a home favorite. Over is 11-1 in Mavericks last 12 games as a favorite. These teams are trending towards high scoring back and forth affairs and have gone over in 4 of their L/5 meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. 

Play OVER

Houston will play for the first time since Feb. 17 following consecutive postponements and Im betting will have plenty of energy after extended rest to turn this game into a fast paced affair that favors this tilt going over the set total according to my projections. Note: The Rockets rank 3rd in pace in the league. 

Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. 

Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 overall.Over is 11-5 in Rockets last 16 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Houston.

Play OVER

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive unders, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) are 59-26 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Boston despite of a day off yesterday is on tired legs and Im betting  will want to slow this game down behind the 23rd ranked pace in the NBA including 6th ranked ppg defence. This Celtics team has been inconsistent offensively ranking 22nd in ppg offence so it will be imperitive they control the pace. This will lead to combined score that remains on the low side of the total. Note:  In the Celtics last six games,  they own the league’s sixth-highest Defensive Rating at 107.5 ppg. 
BOSTON is 10-1 UNDER  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.

Play UNDER

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Washington enters this game on tired legs as this is their 8th game in a 2 week period and are jet lagged after traveling from east to west and still adapting to a new time zone, which Im betting effects their offensive flow. This will have a direct effect on the total combined score of this tilt vs their host the Portland Blazers.  WASHINGTON is 9-0 UNDER  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND) - in non-conference games, off a road win are 35-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

St.John's plays a fast paced style of basketball which ranks 18th in the nation  and they are currently hitting all cylinders scoring an average of 82 points per game in their L/7 trips to the court. Meanwhile, the  Blue Demons play a slower style of basketball,  but alot of that has to do with the type of teams they have faced ie ( Uconn , Butler , Seton Hall and Providence who run their systems at a very slow pace). Today the  Blue Demons wont have to deal with a turtle like opponent, and Im betting they will be forced into a speed game , which they are capable of partaking in. ST JOHNS is 7-1 OVER   as a home favorite or pick this season with a combined average of 158.5 ppg scored.   

Milwaukee is in the midst of a five-game losing streak and now on tired legs after playing last night. HC Mike Budenholzer's now says the team has to get back to basics and pay attention to defense in transition , whichIm betting effects the combined score of this game.  

MILWAUKEE is 17-5  L/22 UNDER   in home games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games with a combined average of 189.4 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 29-16 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons for a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. 

Atlanta continues to force teams into fast paced , all out run and gun affairs and nothing will change tonight vs the high powered  Boston Celtics .

Pierce is 13-2 OVER  when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days as the coach of ATLANTA with a combined average of 248.1 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 17-7 OVER  against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.8 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ATLANTA) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 43-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 43-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

Denver is off a down  effort last time out, and a subsequent 129-98  loss . Note: DENVER is 10-2 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 230.3 ppg. With that said, I look for  Denver to come out here with a big time run and gun start to finish effort and their hosts the Cleveland Cavs will have not choice but to keep up and to try to push forward with some offensive fireworks of their own which will push us towards a over wager. 

DENVER is 14-4 OVER versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 227.9 ppg and is  is 10-2 OVER  versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  this season with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored. DENVER is 14-4 OVER when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 231.1 ppg scored. 

NBA team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 38-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 31-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 

After blowing a big lead last night and losing in embarrassing fashion Im betting the Heat will come out here tonight and start firing on all cylinders and hold nothing back and take nothing for granted  and keep pouring points down even if leading big late . Meanwhile the Kings will have no option but to fire back with some offensive fire works of their own or be blown off the court which Im betting results in a high scoring affair. 

SACRAMENTO is 22-8 OVER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 236.1 ppg scored. 

 The Kings are 19-0 OVER as a dog with rest coming off a home game that had 8+ lead changes with the average combined score of 242 ppg scored.

Play on the Over 

Miami,  ranks near the bottom of the NBA at 106.2 points scored per game. As a team, the Heat are shooting 35.7 percent from 3-point range to rank in the bottom third of the league. Their key to success thus will be based on defense, and nothing changes tonight here on the road. This will help lead to a combined score that remains on the low side of the total.

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The Lakers who rank 1st in defensive rating in the league especially  pay strict attention to transition and are talented enough to control the flow of a game. They have become extremely disciplined and if down by substantial amount will not deter from their style of play. This Im betting will see this combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 211.7 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 9-0 UNDER  in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 203.8 ppg. LA LAKERS are 11-0 UNDER  in road games versus defenses - allowing 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 209.5 ppg scored.LA LAKERS are 14-4 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 214.5 ppg. Vogel is 14-2 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 204.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 33-10 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

play under 

The Lakers D,  and not their star offensive power is what makes them as good as they are. The Lakers rank 2nd in the league in ppg allowed and and 17th in pace, and as per usual they dictate the tone of game and nothing will change tonight, which Im betting helps keep this combined score on the low side of the total. LA LAKERS are 8-1 UNDER  against Southwest division opponents this season with a combined average 217.1 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 14-3 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 42-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

After playing good D for an extended time the Dallas D, has looked a little tattered by has seen a regression to point allowed in their last 3 games, and according to my projections that positive defensive trajectory will continue in this spot vs the Pelicans tonight. Meanwhile, New Orleans  has also been playing very good defense with an exception last time out vs Chicago. However, today Im betting on Van Gundy's squad getting  back to business and makes sure their transition game and 3 point defense is focused on which will help keep this score on the low side of the total.Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER  after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher in all games he has coached  with a combined score of 197 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Philadelphia is red hot, and Im betting on the Blazers trying to be more physical with their opponent in an effort to slow them down and take away from their flow. this Im betting results in a lower scoring tilt than the lines makers are expecting. 

Under is 5-2 in 76ers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Rivers is 37-20 UNDER  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 197.1 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 30-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Detroit ranks 23rd in offence behind the 24th ranked pace, while Indiana is ranked middle of the road in all key categories. From a projections stand point my number is closer to 216 which gives us a one possession advantage to the under. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after a game where they covered the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 36-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, vs. division opponents are 216- 142 L/24 seasons for a 60% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 32-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

The Bucks are know for their offense but their defense is ranked 8th in defensive efficiency and will be key here tonight in the Mile High City vs the Nuggets. Meanwhile, Denver is ranked 28th in pace, and will be prepared to grind away here in an effort to slow down the Bucks. MILWAUKEE is 11-1 UNDER  off a road blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out vs Cleveland in a 124-99 victory. The average combined score of those 12 games rings in at 219 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 38-11 UNDER 24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 77-37 L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The Grizzlies calling card and success and or failures are centered around a 7th ranked ppg defense. With the offense ranked just 22nd in the NBA its obvious Memphis  will be out to center their attention on slowing this game down and Im betting that wont be a problem against a tired New Orleans side that played a hard fought game last night in a one point win. These projections on the style  play and energy flow have me taking an under stance. 

MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MEMPHIS) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 43-20 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 92-53 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Im betting these two top tier teams take part in a post season style game that focuses on defence with special attention paid to the transition game. Boston ranks 9th in ppg allowed in the league and the Clippers ranks 4th.Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play UNDER 

Washingtons offense despite of their run and gun reputation have been quite inconsistent lately with their output numbers. In 5 of their L/7 games, they have scored 101,88, 106, 100, and 103 points. There were two offensive explosions, but those were against Brooklyn and Atlanta two teams that like to run and gun like them.  Tonight Im betting their offensive output will once again be curtailed by a Heat side that ranks 23rd in pace and 26th in offensive production. This will contribute to this tilt staying on the low side of the number. Note. These teams played on Wednesday night with a 103-100 final score. Rinse and repeat scenario now on board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MIAMI) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 23-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 45-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Since the Harden trade and his subsequent  debut, the Nets are averaging 127 points on 51.8 percent shooting. They shot 57 percent Tuesday. However, as we all know those numbers are not sustainable, especially against a veteran team like Toronto that knows how to slow games down and turning them into grinding affairs. Thus Im betting that this combined score will remain on the low side of the total. TORONTO is 22-8 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Nurse  in all 8 of his road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots as the coach of TORONTO has seen a combined score of 215.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more are 30-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 71-28 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 32-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My projections estimate that Cleveland will not score more than 105 points here tonight while the Bucks should score in the 116 range. Note:MILWAUKEE is 18-2 UNDER  when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 215.4 ppg going on the board. The L/3 games in this series in Cleveland have gone under the set total and a rinse and repeat situation once again looks like a viable betting opportunity here based on my estimates and the fact that the Cavs own the 6th best ppg defense in the NBA and the 29th ranked pace. 

Play UNDER 

Denver offence is clicking and Im betting they push the Lakers into a uptempo game here and make the champs work extra hard in this tilt. DENVER is 20-6 OVER  after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is  is 12-3 OVER  in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, playing with 3 or more days rest are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 224.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

Memphis had their 7 game win steak snapped last time out by Indiana in a high scoring 134-116 event . I blame that down effort by the Grizzlies on their defence, which might of suffered because of tired legs on a rigorous schedule. The win streak was complimented by top tier defence, and now Im betting the Grizzlies returning to what made them successful here and that Im also betting contributes to this tilt staying on the low side of the total.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 25-14 UNDER  in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 20-8 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 22-6 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Sacramento has played well lately winning 3 of their L/5 with one loss by 1 point 96-95 , and Im attributing their recent success to playing good defense. Meanwhile, Boston is also playing top tier defensive hoops and ranking 8th in ppg defense. More of the same from both tonight. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5 or less TO's) are 26-7 UNDER L/ 24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Phoenix ranks fifth in defensive efficiency and are good at cutting down on opponents downtown shooting, thus making them play inside the arc in the paint. Meanwhile, the Pelicans play a similar style of  D, but are horrendous on offence and could easily be suffocated by a Suns side that is starting to get healthy. On the flip-side the Suns are inconsistent offensively, and dont get to the charity stripe often, ranking 2nd in FT attempts. These kinds of systems when I make a total projection shows value to the under. 

PHOENIX is 17-7 UNDER in road games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 15-4 UNDER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.PHOENIX is 20-9 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. 

Play UNDER

Indiana has been struggling to score and than suddenly last time out, they popped  134 points on 59.7% shooting against the Grizzlies, and now I expect a regression to the norm on tired legs in back to back games. This Im betting directly alters projections and gives us value on the under.

INDIANA is 22-8 UNDER  after a combined score of 245 points or more and s14-3 UNDER  after scoring 130 points or more.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 29-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 31-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Boston ranks 8th in defense ppg against and is the cornerstone of their successes and failures and nothing with change tonight vs the explosive Curry and the Warriors. The Celtics defensive posture and ability to control flow will lead to this being a lower scoring game than the linesmakers estimates. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - good shooting team - shooting 46% or more  on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 28-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Los Angeles Clippers and Brooklyn Nets possess a great deal of  offensive explosiveness . But one team the Clippers owns the better defence (4th in NBA ppg allowed), and has the abilities to slow down the other side behind the 27th ranked pace  , and limit their potent attack. The Nets will want to run and gun, but Im betting the Clippers will not be dragged into that type of game and instead play stoppers here tonight against a undisciplined side, which according to my projections sets up for a combined score that does not eclipse this total. LA CLIPPERS are 22-9 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 60-25 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Memphis thanks to some very strong defensive play have won 7 games in a row and now on tired legs as they play their 2nd game in 2 nights, Im betting them and their opponents the Spurs will take part in a more subdued less aggressive offensive affair.

 MEMPHIS is 8-0 UNDER   off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.5 ppg.

SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 UNDER  in home games off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-39 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 30-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on the under 

NYK in their 20 games this season have seen a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored behind a 30th ranked last place pace and the worst ppg offense in the NBA also ranked 30th. To me this tells me they have had more control of the speed of the game than their opponents, and Im betting despite of the Bulls wanting to run they wont have their way and we see a lower scoring tilt then the lines-makers might expect. 

NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 201.1 ppg scored. 

 CHICAGO is 18-6 UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 34-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 Based on my projections this game has value on a under wager. (Late Steam)

NBA. Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, vs. division opponents are 56-28 under L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team aren30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Both these sides style of play obviously leans towards a high scoring affair, but the number according to my projections is just to high, and should be closer to 239 which gives us some obvious value to the under with an almost 2 possession divergence. 

The Nets have not gone over the total in 12 straight games  with rest coming off a road win where they had 30+ assists.Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or kore  of their shots are 30-6 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My projections give us value with an under wager here in this matchup which says this Total should be closer to 219 which makes this a full ;possession divergence. 

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  after playing a home game this season.

HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER  versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 216.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW ORLEANS) - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 38-14 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 There is now way Oklahoma City can compete in a run and gun affair and that is why Im betting they do everything with their power to slow this game down, which Im betting results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 UNDER  when the total is 220 to 232.5  over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. 

The Thunder are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a dog after they had 5 or fewer offensive boards last game , with non of the tilts going over this offered number. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Both sides are unrested and Im expecting a slower more deliberate game than many might expect. 

The Warriors have seen the L/6 meetings vs the Suns stay under the set total and have gone under in 8 of their L/9 as  division  road dogs  and have also seen  6 of their L/7 away games  stay under vs unrested foes . Mean while, the Suns have gone under 9 straight times as division  chalk including   5 straight vs  unrested division  opposition. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 220.5 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 90-51 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Boston really shot the lights out last time out in a 141-103 win vs the Cleveland Cavaliers and now a natural offensive regression is in the cards.  This in itself will help contribute to this tilts combined score staying on the low side of the total. Note:  BOSTON is 29-11 UNDER after a huge blowout win by 30 or more since 1996 with a combined 191.3 ppg scored. 

HC Donovan of the Bulls is 95-55 UNDER  as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average lof 215.7 ppg scored. 


NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 29-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The pace and matchup comparisons suggest a score that stays on the low side of the number as was the case last night in a 107-104 Charlotte win. 

 NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, with a losing record are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Orlando enters this game with the 22nd ranked pace, 28th in the league in ppg scored and have seen 9 of their L/12 games fail to eclipse the total. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 24th in ppg offence, and 10th in ppg allowed D, behind the 18th ranked pace. Both sides , play at a speed and style that points towards a combined score that stays below thsi offered number.

ORLANDO is 15-4 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.8 ppg scored.   

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Oklahoma City is ranked 27th in ppg offense to this point in the season, and are now dealing with the fact they are not a offensive juggernaut and must learn to slow down teams in transition, which Im sure is the game plan tonight. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers have projected.  OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons

OKLAHOMA CITY is 90-62 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better  with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - a very good team (7  or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential) are 45-19 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% for conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

After a hard fought win vs Milwaukee last time out by the Lakers, Im betting on a bit of an emotional letdown situation here vs Chicago tonight, which will see the Lakers start slower than usual, and that will in turn effect the early flow of this game and subsequently the combined score that will end  up to be lower than the number expected   by the linesmakers. LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER   versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER   in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.   Vogel is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 210.6 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Nets  are having some defensive issues and I expect them to ficus on   correcting some of their   issues Saturday night when they host the shorthanded Miami Heat. The Heat will be effected by a lack of cohesiveness because of their lack of a full compliment of players, This Im betting effect the score of this tilt to the low side of the number. Spoelstra is 135-103 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 201.1 ppg . 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 46-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Mavs enter this game ranked 6th in ppg allowed defence, and 22nd in offensive output, behind the 22nd ranked pace. Needless to say they are playing a deliberate conservative  style of hoops, that has coincidently resulted in unders cashing for bettors in 9 of their L/12 trips to the hardwood, including going Under is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Meanwhile, San Antonio is ranked. middle of the pack, ranking 17th in offensive output and 11th in defensive rating . Note:Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. The Spurs have also been in a under groove going 5-1 to the low side of the number L/6 trips to the court. Considering both teams current form, Ill bet and recommend we take a lower scoring stance here.Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER

 HC Nurse said his team's defense was at its worst of the season "times three" in the game and Im betting things dont get better here tonight in a game that is more wide open than the pundits might expect. 

 MIAMI is 19-8 OVER  when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.5 ppg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

 Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 overall.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, with a losing record are 43-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Analysis to follow. Thank you for your patience.


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

 teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 32-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Minnesota and Orlando both are aiming to pull out of their funks Wednesday night in their matchup at the Target Center in Minneapolis and Im betting they come out here with all guns blazing in an attempt to get back into the win column. This Im betting results in a combined score that goes over the total.  

Over is 6-0 in Magic last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Over is 8-1-1 in Magic last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Over is 7-1-1 in Magic last 9 games as a road favorite.

The Timberwolves are 14-0 OVER L/14 at home after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers last game with every game in the subset eclipsing this total with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored and enter this game on a current 8 game streak of unders. Rinse and repeat here despite of a partially revamped new lineup. 


NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 51-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 31-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Yes, both these sides can light it up , but according to my Totals projection , the number should be closer to 234 , so with a full possession plus avaialble Im recommedning we take an under stance on a public line. 

Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games as a favorite.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games are 70-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 43-19 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Pacers are are at the tail end of a 4 game west coast road trip, and will be prepared to pace themselves here vs a LA Clippers side that is well aware of their oppositions prowess. Im betting  on a offensive regression to the norm for the Clippers after running and gunning for 138 points last time out vs the Kings in a lopsided win. 

INDIANA is 48-23 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or kore  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. 

The Pacers are 0-10 UNDER L/10 as a dog after their opponent shot under 40% from the field with a combined average of 206.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA/LA CLIPPERS) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 57-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

 The Pelicans for the most part have payed attention to their defense and rank 7th in the league in ppg allowed while operating a pace that ranks 26th in the NBA. Here on the road Im betting on more disciplined hoops vs a Sacramento Kings group that plays has  shown very little discipline of late .Also  is the case with Van Gundy coached sides a consistent persistence on not losing control of the speed of game will continue to be implemented . This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. 

Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 road games.

Play UNDER

The last 3 meetings in this series here in the Mile High City have been fairly low scoring affakirs and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here in a game that will fail to eclipse the total according to my projections. 

Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 overall. Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Denver.

UTAH is 35-21 UNDER  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 season with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 79-41 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - vs. division opponents, playing with 2 days rest are 82-45 L/24 seasons for a  66% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The L/3 meetings in this series have seen non of the game eclipse this total and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight. LA CLIPPERS are 12-2 UNDER in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - after allowing 130 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 52-25 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Golden State games have been according to my projections seeing added digits to the totals from the linesmakers  , which is showing value to the under. Thanks to those faulty numbers offered by the books we have seen 4 straight Warriors games go under the total. Warriors speedy pace, has influenced the linesmkaers, as has the presence  of their super star Curry. However, their off, because of a variation of reasons, and continue to hold value for under bettors.  


GOLDEN STATE is 27-11 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 230 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 27-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Both these sides have been playing top tier hoops of late,  with San Antonio winning 3 of their L/4 and the Thunder 4 of their L/5.  The Spurs did lose their last game, behind some lackluster shooting, but that has not been the norm for this side, and  Im betting on a offensive bounce back performance tonight. Note: The Spurs are 11-0 OVER as a favorite with rest off a road loss with the average combined ppg clicking in at 222.1 ppg.  SAN ANTONIO is 13-1 OVER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240.7 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Both these teams 

Indiana has played some fairly high scoring tilts this season, but their calling card remains their D, and here on the road behind a pace that ranks 20th in the league Im betting we will see them paying attention in transition. Meanwhile,  Sacramento was clobbered last time out, by Portland by a 125-99 count. In the recent past ,  the Under is 13-6 in Kings last 19 games following a double-digit loss at home as they tighten things up and focus more on basics. Everything points to a tilt that sees a combined score that remains on the low side of the total.

Under is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5  or less TO's) are 24-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (SACRAMENTO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 54-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Trailblazers  who rank 7th in pace 4th in offence and 25th in ppg games allowed on D, are off a win last time out on the road as a favorite which sets up a strong trend that has seen them go over 10 straight times by an average of more than 22 ppg,  with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at at a massive 249.9 ppg. Meanwhile, Toronto now playing in back to back games are on tired legs, and may have issues stopping the run and gun Blazers and will have to open up with some offensive fireworks of their own in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 44-16 OVER L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

This total is partly based on the Raptors dismal 3 point defence, but Im betting it will get better as the season progresses, including tonight. The Raptors are playing better lately overall, and have the veterans and coaching needed to know how to handle a Seth Curry lead offence. With that said, Im betting on the Raptors physicality to be in top gear and for the flow of this game to be slower than the number might suggest. Advantage under.

TORONTO is 16-6 UNDER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212 ppg scored. TORONTO is 31-19 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 26-11 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.5 ppg scored.


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 25-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average combined total of 220.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 31-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

The Spurs are playing top tier hoops at the moment, and are off two consecutive upset victories. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 13-3  L/16 UNDER  off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog with the average combined score of 185.3 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 30-14 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg going on the board. 

The Spurs are 0-14-2 UNDER L/16  as a road favorite with rest after a win in which they never trailed with a combined average of 191.5 ppg scored with non of the games in the subset eclipising this total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 40-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA  team (MINNESOTA) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 37-12 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Utahs inconsistent play early on in the season continued last time out, as they lost as -6.5 road favs at NYK last time out. It must be noted   UTAH is 28-9 UNDER off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more with a combined average of 191.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. It makes sense as teams who are in this role, look to get back to basics and play a more conservative style of getting back to basics basketball. Few teams try to run and gun with the Bucks, and Im betting the Jazz instead will try to slow things down a bit and play a more phsycial style of hoops which will keep this combined score on the low side of the number. 

Budenholzer is 39-18 UNDER  in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 206.4 ppg scored.


NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 61-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 41-16 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Suns enter this game as the top ppg defence in the NBA, behind the slowest pace. Im betting they dictate the pacde again vs a Detroit team that is trending lower in many categories including offencive rating where they rank 20th. Everything points to this being a lower scoring affair. 


NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more are 33-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

These teams have taken part in some physical grinding affairs of late when they have met and 5 of their L/6 meetings have resulted in the under cashing.Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Dallas HC Carlisle is 124-84 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents in all games he has coached  with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored in those tilts. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - off a win against a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 83-41 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 37-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

My College basketball Totals/sides projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Sides/Totals  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (NICHOLLS ST) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45-47.5%), in a game involving two poor rebounding teams (-3 to -6 reb/game) are 30-6 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 132.8 ppg scored. 

Play on the UNDER 

I am betting Denver behind a 28th ranked pace, will dictate this game in the trenches, which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 31-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 207.7 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Utah runs a pace that ranks 23rd in the NBA and now own the 8th best ppg defence and here tonight Im betting that we have value taking the under here vs a  Nets side that has gone under in 7 of their  last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 like the Jazz. 

Snyder is 30-15 UNDER L/45 versus poor ball handling teams - committing 16 or more  turnovers/game as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 196.1 ppg per game going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 62-29 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 30-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

I have charted how the Heat have performed recently against sides like Oklahoma City that are having a hard time competing. These following trends give us an indication of a strong factor favoring the over.  MIAMI is 16-4 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. MIAMI is 10-1 OVER versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7 ppg scored. Also MIAMI is 20-6 OVER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225 ppg going on the board.  MIAMI is 13-3 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Play OVER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience - All NBA wagers come with a full explanation of why and how I came to my conclusions. 

Alex Smart's moto  Alex's moto comes via the late Great Jimmy the Greek, "The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself".

Play on the UNDER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience - All NBA wagers come with a full explanation of why and how I came to my conclusions. 

Alex Smart's moto  Alex's moto comes via the late Great Jimmy the Greek, "The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself".

Play on the OVER 

Portland enters this game ranked 9th in offensive output and 23rd in defensive ppg against and 25th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Warriors rank 2nd in pace in the league, and 30th in ppg allowed. This current form for both teams sets up for a formula of big offensive numbers going on the board. 

PORTLAND is 14-2 OVER  after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 season with a combined average of 239.5  ppg going on the board. 

Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 74-39 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

My projections have made this game total 224 thus giving us value with an over wager. 


UTAH is 8-0 OVER in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

 Rhode Island plays a top tier brand of defence and has allowed just 62 ppg in 3 home games this season, and nothing will change today against St.Joes. Look for Rhode Island to grind this game down to a crawl and not allow their run and gun opponent to open up. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more DEFENCE. Play on the UNDER



RHODE ISLAND is 7-0 UNDER in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 130.5 ppg scored.RHODE ISLAND is 6-0 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45%  or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 132.5 ppg scored.   RHODE ISLAND is 10-1 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 133.4 ppg scored.

CBB Road teams against the total (ST JOSEPHS) - after allowing 80 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 65 points or less 3 straight games. are 25-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

UNDER

My projections estimate that the Pacers will score 112+ points and will force the Knciks to chase . Note: INDIANA is 31-6 OVER  when they score 112 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight game are 27-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

My projections make this total closer ot 229 thus giving us value with an under wager.


 HOUSTON is 16-3 UNDER  after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 33-17 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (HOUSTON) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 56-23 UNDER  L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 105-58 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on UNDER