The Celtics won't be at full strength for the trip out west, and for at least a month after that, with the loss of high-scoring guard Gordon Hayward to a broken left hand earlier in the week. Im betting this will hamper the offensive flow of the Celtics and they will take a more defensive, stance for a while to compensate for their offensive loss. Tonight because of this Im betting this Total is slightly bloated with the value towards the under. BOSTON i in 13 road games    after 6 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined score of 216.1 ppg.

These teams have gone under in the L/4 meetings. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - a very good team (7 or better  PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 33-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - a very good team (7  or better PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Washington enters this game ranked 8th in pace in the league 8th in ppg(115.6) , and 28th in ppg allowed(120). Meanwhile, Minnesota is ranked 5th in pace, 4th in offensive output (117.2), and 25th in ppg allowed(116.2). Its obvious both sides run and gun with reckless abandon, while exhibiting an inability or disinterest in playing D. It is what it is. A far is this total is concerned, and how high it might seem, you have to remember this is the new NBA , and totals like this will show up more and more often as the league continues its quest to entertain the public. There can be under value with bloated totals, but this one not one of them. 

WASHINGTON is 9-1 OVER  versus good foul drawing teams - attempting 27 or more  free throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244.6 ppg scored.

MINNESOTA is 11-2 OVER against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Wolves average 119.2 ppg and opposition  average 114.7 ppg. Based on a aggregate output system I use, 3-6 . points per team is projected above these numbers making this a viable over situation based on past performance trends and current form.

Play OVER 

Orlando are No.1 in ppg allowed in the NBA behind the 30th ranked pace. San Antonio is currently struggling and Im sure the Magic game plan will be to further take them out of their game with a suffocating physical effort which Im betting will contribute to a lower scoring affair.

ORLANDO is 27-15 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season ARE 39-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

South Carolina improved to 2-0 on the young season when it posted a 66-32 victory over Wyoming at Colonial Life Arena on Sunday behind a top tier D, which Im betting will once again play a smothering style of basketball.  The Gamecock defense is holding opponents to just 24.0 percent from the field thus far, which leads the SEC and ranks third nationally. Needless to say, I expect Cleveland will not do much offensive damage here and only put up 50 points vs Minnesota  on the road in their opener and just 53 points on the board vs Missouri state as visitors. Clevelands output and Carolina D and pace make this an under wager.

Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 non-conference games.

Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 overall.Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-0 in Gamecocks last 6 home games.Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 7-1 in Gamecocks last 8 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Gamecocks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 9-3 in Gamecocks last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Under is 14-5 in Gamecocks last 19 Friday games. 

Play UNDER

Phoenix is 8th in pace in the NBA and 6th in offensive output,(116.6) and will push all comers into speeding up their game, and opening up or be blown off the court. That is exactly the situation we have here tonight as Atlanta visits in their 3rd  western road game in 5 nights. Run and gun until the clock tips in at zero. The two most recent meetings between these teams last season saw 230 and 232 combined points cored.

Atlanta has gone over in 3 straight games with the combined score of 237.7 ppg scored. Suns have gone over in 4 straight with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 12-2 OVER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 249.3 ppg going on the board. 

PHOENIX is 15-4 OVER after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Seton Hall will play without star guard Myles Powell and that will adversely effect their offensive flow of a team that is defensive minded in nature. Meanwhile, Michigan State is expected play without senior guard Joshua Langford which will also effect the Spartans offence as he compliments star guard Cassius Winston.  With that said, Im taking the under here in a game that should be grinding and physical in nature.

MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 UNDER  after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less over the last 2 seasons which was the case in a 100-47 beatdown of Binghamton last time out. 

Play UNDER 

The Lakers played a aggressive game vs the Suns last night in a big win, that saw the team spread the ball around . Note: The Lakers are 0-14 L/14 UNDER at home after a game as a road favorite in which they had 6+ double digit scorers with a combined average of 193.3 ppg going on the board. Now on tired legs I look for a regression tonight, and for this contest vs the Golden State Warriors to end up on the lower side of the total. 

LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored and are are 11-2 UNDER  in home games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - a top-level team ( 75% or better) playing a terrible team (25% or worse ) are 24-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Oklahoma City is thundering into top form offensively of late, and as result of their decent Fg conversion rate and uptick in pace have scored 112, 1114, and 119 respectively, with all three going over as their D gets looser allowing 121, 108 , and 121 points. Tonight Im betting on that current form to continue which will force a capable Indiana side  that is in top form to push forward offensively and upping their pace and  gaining on a recent output of 120, 121, 112, 109 points  in their L/4 with 3 of those 4 games eclipsing the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 40-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

  The Jazz are off a hard fought battle vs Milwaukee last time out(103-100), and subsequent win, and will be in a bit of an emotional letdown state here in Golden State , which Im betting sees them set an even slower pace than usual ( Utah ranks 1st in pace in the NBA). The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12  since Apr 20, 2019 going under by more than 17 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 198.1 ppg, with none of the games, eclipsing this current listed total. Also The Jazz are  0-5 L/5 UNDER  on the road with a combined average of 193.4 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile Golden State prepares to play their 4th game in 6 nights, which includes 3 straight road games,  and will now also be on tired legs and happy to also set a slower pace.

UTAH is 16-4 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.4 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 45-19 UNDER L/5seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The defending champion Toronto Raptors take on the   Lakers in Los Angeles on Sunday short handed with injuries. Two of their top performers went down with injuries in the club's win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday.Guard Kyle Lowry, the Raptors' second-leading scorer at 21.8 points per game, sustained a fracture in his left thumb in the first quarter, and forward Serge Ibaka went down with a severe right ankle sprain in the second quarter. Considering this , Im betting their flow will be disrupted, and knowing that they cant run and gun with the explosive Lakers tonight, a more defensive physical posture will be implemented by the coaching staff which will help keep this tilt on the lower side of this total. 

NBA team (LA LAKERS/TORONTO) - in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better), on Sunday games are 40-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

New Orleans is off a loss last night against the Toronto Raptors and will not be in any shape to play defence, tonight against the Hornets something thats been an issue for them all season long, as they allow the worst ppf average in the league ( 124 ppg) behind the 5th best offence ( 117.4 ppg) and 3rd ranked pace. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 23rd in ppg, allowed and 24th in defensive rating and will have to open here tonight against this type of wide open team if they hope to notch a win. Note: The Pelicans are 16-0-1 OVER L/17 with less than two days rest coming off a loss with the average combined score clicking in at 250.1 ppg. Every game during this extensive trend run have all eclipsed the current high total. NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 OVER  in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240 ppg scored. Over is 11-5 in Pelicans last 16 games playing on 0 days rest.ver is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

Play OVER 

The Toronto Raptors and the New Orleans Pelicans opened the season against each other nearly three weeks ago.with the Raptors taking a  130-122 victory  in overtime . Since than both have taken part in some high scoring games  which in some ways is skewing this total to the high side, which offers value for under bettors such as ourselves. ( It it was not for OT the above mentioned tilt would have stayed under the total)

 Gentry is 36-19 OVER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of NEW ORLEANs with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. 

The Raptors have not eclipsed the total in their L/7 as a road favorite with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 50-9 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Northeastern won their opener by a 72-67 count  vs Boston U while Harvard won their opening tilt by a 84-27 count vs MIT. Both teams modus operandi is based on a solid D, and a methodical pace, which Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt tonight that remains on the low side of the total. 

Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 overall.Under is 7-2 in Huskies last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-2 in Huskies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-0 in Huskies last 7 home games. Amaker is 20-9 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better as the coach of HARVARD with a combined average of 133.6 ppg going on the board.HARVARD is 24-11 UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997 with a combined average of 131.1 ppg going on the board.HARVARD iin their L/15 after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 133.1 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

VETERANS CLASSIC - Alumni Hall - Annapolis, MD

The Wildcats return all five starters from a 24-10 club that finished second in the Atlantic 10 with a 14-4 conference record last season. This team can really light it up in cohesive fashion, and tonight their going to play to Auburns speed and possibly beat them at their own game in a tilt I have pegged to go over the total. 

Davidson will be playing its season opener after running past Glenville State 102-94 in an exhibition.

Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 overall.Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 neutral site games.Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 non-conference games.

AUBURN is 15-5 OVER  when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.2 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

Early season action will have defences in better from than shooters. This is strong instate rivalry that should be hard fought, which will dictate a slower, more physical affair that stays on the low side of the total. 

Under is 9-1 in Blazers last 10 vs. Sun Belt.Under is 17-7-1 in Blazers last 25 Thursday games.Under is 51-25-2 in Blazers last 78 non-conference games.

 Under is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 overall.

Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.

UAB is 50-30 UNDER  as a road favorite or pick since 1997 with a combined average `of 137.1 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

Indiana is exhausted as they prepare to play their 3rd game in 4 nights, and are off a 122-120 OT loss in Memphis last night. Tonight playing defence could easily become an issue on tired legs  in a game I have pegged to be a wide open affair vs a Washington side, that is ranked 26th in ppg allowed on  D, and 5th in ppg on offence and 8th in pace. 

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 vs. NBA Central.

Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.

WASHINGTON is 30-16 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

CHAMPIONS CLASSIC - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY 

Tonight’s No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Kentucky has a bit of a tainted public leaning totals number attached to it. ( The public loves to bang the over on marquee games) My number on this total is closer to 134 to 136, thus according to my projections we have value to the under. Note: Both teams have been hit with the injury bug, and because of personnel improvisations Im betting a more muted flow and pace which directly effect this total to the under.  

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - good rebounding team from last season - outrebounded opponents by 4+ per game, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Los Angeles has reeled off five straight victories since dropping the season opener against their intra-city rival Los Angeles Clippers behind super stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and Im betting will have an above average output offensively today vs a struggling Chicago Bulls team allowing an average of 110.3 ppg. Meanwhile, LAL has been allowing 108 ppg on the road this season, and tonight I look for the chasing Bulls to aggressively open up to keep track on the scoreboard, which will result in combined score that eclipses this total. 

Play OVER 

The Wizards enter this game against the Pistons having lost three straight while giving up an average of 138 points. Washington is ranked 28th in ppg allowed, and 3rd and pace and 7th in offence. The Wizards come at you in run and gun fashion, and essentially force you into opening up. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons are currently ranked 21st in ppg allowed, and 24th in defensive efficiency, and if they are going to win they have to up their17th ranked pace here tonight in a game I have pegged to fly over the total. 

Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 road games.Over is 7-1 in Pistons last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 7-3 in Pistons last 10 overall.

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 home games.Over is 8-0 in Wizards last 8 vs. NBA Central.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 7-2 in Wizards last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 21-7 in Wizards last 28 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-6 in Wizards last 23 games following a straight up loss.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-2 OVER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Utah has the best D in the league so far this season ranking No.1 in ppg allowed at 94 ppg, and rank 28th in pace and 27th in ppg scored at 101. Its obvious what their formula for success is and Im betting on nothing changing tonight . Meanwhile, we all know about the Clippers and super star Kawhi Leonard, but Utah can slow down the most potent of teams , and isolate them in transition , which Im betting will be the case again tonight. With that said, Im betting a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. 

Utahs L/9 games dating back to last season, have gone under the total with the combined average score of 196.2 ppg going on the board.

NBA team (UTAH/LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), first half of the season are 102-47 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 84-44 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Two teams that are struggling to start their season go head to head tonight .Both  entered Saturday tied for 27th in the NBA in assists per game (19.3). The Sacramento Kings issues have predicated on their lack of scoring consistency from downtown and at the charity stripe. Meanwhile, the Knicks the Kings hosts tonight, are ranked 28th in ppg on offence, and 27th slowest in pace, and depend on a hardcore work ethic to try to stay competitive. Both teams current structural inconsistencies make for a rocky flow, and Im betting tonight that will translate into a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total.

The Knicks have gone under in 8 of their L/9 dating back to last season, with a combined average score of 206.9 ppg scored, and have gone under 4 straight times at home, with the with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 15-4 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the board.NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - pathetic team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or better on the season, poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game are 28-8 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Joel Embiid is expected to miss tonight game for Philadelphia because of suspension, but the way the Sixers are built that wont slow down their offense or pace here this evening. Note: The Sixers are ranked 3rd in PACE this season (107.0). Also PORTLAND in their L/41 games  when the total is 210 to 222 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 233 ppg go on the board. Full steam ahead here in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 OVER  after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored.

NBA  team (PORTLAND) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43%or less on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 113-62 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Cleveland took out the  Chicago Bulls 117-111 this past Wednesday. The win marked Cleveland's third consecutive game with an uptick in its scoring, from 85 in the opener to 110 vs. Indiana then 112 in a loss at the Milwaukee Bucks. There is upward offensive momentum at play here tonight in my over call on this tilt.  Meanwhile, Indiana (1-3) concluded a three-game road swing on Wednesday, scoring its first win of the 2019-20 season, 118-108 at the Brooklyn Nets. Both sides have shown slower paces so far this season, but their defensive weaknesses , and current uptrends offensively make this a solid over wager. 

The Cavaliers are 7-2 OVER as a road dog with a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored.

Anomaly or not its interesting to note that CLEVELAND is 9-1 OVER  in road games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.

San Antonio has been off since beating the visiting Portland Trail Blazers on Monday to improve to 3-0 and are very fresh for this tilt vs the Clippers and should be very ready to press the action vs a LA Clippers side they matchup well against. With a rested Kawhi Leonard in the Clippers lineup they will also be ready to reciprocate in a what Im betting will be a run and gun affair. 

The L/3 meetings here in LA have all eclipsed the total.

LA CLIPPERS are 19-6 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of those 25 games clicking in at 236.6 ppg. 

SAN ANTONIO is 14-3 OVER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

We have a huge talent disparity here in this game featuring Memphis and the LA Lakers and Im betting the rebuilding Grizzlies output will be muted, and their over all game plan will be a more  conservative one , than they have shown so far this season, knowing what they are up against. With that said, Im betting we have a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. Note : It must also be noted that there seems to be a concerted effort from the Lakers to be a all around team this season.

LAL are ranked 3rd in ppg allowed this season, and 20th in offence, behind the 28th ranked pace. 

The Lakers are 2-7 L/9 as a home favorite with the average combined score clicking in at 214.2 ppg.

LA LAKERS are 21-7 UNDER  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 29-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Utah is a defence first team with a blue collar attitude, and Im betting that will be on full display here this evening in Phoenix. Its early in the season but the Jazz are ranked first in defence allowing 90.3 ppg and are ranked 27th on offence, but the tell tale tape shows them methodically operating with a 28th ranked pace, which is in part indicative of their on court  conservative philosophical mindset. Meanwhile, the Suns are ranked 12th in ppg allowed and 14th in pace and should be on tired legs and in a regressionary offensive mode, after taking part in consecutive hard fought back  forth affairs vs Denver and the LA Clippers.Add to that both teams are playing their 4th game in 6 nights and are certainly on tired legs which in turn will also effect the pace and output of this tilt to the low side of the totals number. 

Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 overall.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 Monday games.Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games following a straight up win.

Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games following a straight up win. .Under is 16-5 in Suns last 21 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 6-2 in Suns last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Phoenix.

PHOENIX is 9-1 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.3 ppg.

UTAH is 31-13 UNDER  after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.5 ppg going on the score board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 27-4 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 36-12 UNDER 23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Suns will play host to the Clippers on Saturday in their second game without key starter  Ayton, and will miss his point production, but overall, this Im betting helps their defence. Ayton has never been known for his defensive play and is also known as a defensive liability.  Add to that the Suns, played last night and will be on tired legs after they lost l in OT by a 108-107 count in the high altitude of  Denver which in itself is exhausting .  So here in LA this evening, Im looking for a tempered effort from the Suns, against what is an explosive Clippers team. This Im betting leads to a much lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers expect. Note: HC Williams in 213 career games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached has seen a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Last time out Philadelphia showed their defensive abilities when they limited Boston  to 36.7 percent shooting overall and 26.9 percent from 3-point range, and are more than capable of a shut down performance here vs Detroit on the road . Meanwhile the Motown Pistons, are off dropping their home opener to Atlanta 117-100 as chalk. There was a lack of good defence, and offence in that tilt, and HC Casey was particularly unhappy with the Pistons D, and tonight Im betting he sets out to correct that. QUOTE:"Our defense (Thursday) was porous and you put that along with bad shooting in the second half, that's a bad recipe," coach Dwane Casey said. END QUOTE.

DETROIT is 17-6 UNDER off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons are with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored. 

76ers- Joel Embiid is "?" Saturday vs Detroit ( Ankle )

Pistons -Blake Griffin is out indefinitely ( Hamstring )

Play on the UNDER 

Butler, Miami's biggest offseason acquisition, missed Wednesday's season-opening win for the birth of his daughter and will miss Saturday's game against the Bucks and as a result  will effectively curtail the Heats offensive output. The Heats L/7 road games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 216 ppg go on the board.

The Heats usual motus operandi is based on playing staunch D which will be in effect here, vs the explosive Milwaukee Bucks.

Long term historical trend: MIAMI is 563-469 L/1031 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 189.1 ppg scored over a very extensive period of time.MIAMI is 103-74 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points with a combined average of 186.8 ppg going on the board.

Play on the UNDER 

Both teams will take the court with revenge motivation: the Clippers on an opponent that ended their season last April; the Warriors on Leonard, who denied Golden State a three-peat while leading the Toronto Raptors to the championship in June. With that said,Im expecting a spirited back and forth game with a boatload full of points going on the board. 

 Over is 7-2 L/9 meetings at Golden State.

Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a ATS win.Over is 10-1 in Clippers last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 6-2 in Clippers last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 road games.Over is 12-5 in Clippers last 17 Thursday games.Over is 14-6 in Clippers last 20 overall.Over is 13-6 in Clippers last 19 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 overall.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 /WARRIORS (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, vs. division opponents are 28-13 OVER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Im projecting that this big man crew of Philadelphia to really push forward here this Wednesday night in attempt to assert their standing in the East.  I also  expect a take no prisoners type of affair with alot more points going on the board than the linesmakers and public might expect. In the past Boston has been able to slow down Joel Embiid, thanks to the work of Al Horford and Aron Baynes’  , and now that both are gone, Im expecting Embiid to explode offensively and carry his team forward with maximum momentum   The revamped Celtics will have to follow suit and open up, with some offense of their own,  or be blown off the court, which Im betting helps us get over the Number. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA/BOSTON) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, vs. division opponents are 28-7 OVER L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The public right out of the gate loves the over here in this Battle of LA game  based in part to the concept that  LAL super stars Davis and James will almost single hand-idly eclipse this total all by themselves.(Tongue in cheek) But Im betting the chemistry between these guys is over blown just like this total based on perceptions. Instead Im betting on Lakers sturdy D, to be key. I know the Clippers can also run and gun, but Im betting that wont be the case here tonight as they devise a game plan to slow down Davis and James and the fast break explosiveness of  Alex Caruso and Kuzma, resulting in a more tempered effort by the Clippers in transition. 

Under is 8-3 in Lakers last 11 vs. Western Conference.Under is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of LA Lakers's last 19 games when playing LA Clippers.

Play on the UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

The Raptors have played a physical gritty style of basketball these entire play offs that keys its offence in transition and here in the NBA finals have really pressured the Golden State Warriors, much like they did vs Sixers and the Bucks . The success of the Raptors flow busting modus operandi Im betting will not change here today in a game that promises to be intense. One team looking for their first ever championship and the other a defending champion on their last legs scratching and clawing to survive. There will be fireworks, but not of the offensive kind, in a game the linesmakers are estimating to be close. 

The Raptors are 2-9-2 UNDER L/11 on the road with a combined average of 210.2 ppg scored.

Under is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 Thursday games.Under is 9-3-1 in Raptors last 13 road games.Under is 9-3-1 in Raptors last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 7-3-1 in Raptors last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 8-3 in Warriors last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less ARE 78-41 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - TOR Leads 3-1

The Raptors have played a physical gritty style of basketball these entire play offs that keys its offence in transition and here in the NBA finals have really pressured the Golden State Warriors, much like they did vs Sixers and the Bucks . The success of the Raptors flow busting modus operandi Im betting will not change here today in a game that promises to be a up North rumble. One team looking for their first ever championship and the other a defending champion on their last legs scratching and clawing to survive. There will be fireworks, but not of the offensive kind, in a game the lines-makers are estimating to be close .

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (TORONTO) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, with a winning record on the seasons are 32-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - TOR Leads 2-1

The Warriors uncharacteristically allowed 123 points in  Game 3 of this series vs the Raptors which was just  the fourth time they have allowed 120 points or more in the 2019 playoffs. In the two previous play off campaigns the Warriors allowed more than 120 points just 3 times in total, so Im betting the game 3 anomaly will not be repeated as will as a mean to the regression to the norm for the Raptors offence  after shooting the lights out in game 3 ( 40% from 3 point land, 30+ assists ). With Klay Thompson returning to the floor for game 4, the dynamic of the Dubs defence will return which HC Kerr will key on in a very important game . Also Durant will be out tonight as well, for the Warriors which has diminished their offensive firepower as compared to when he plays, so D will be very important element for Golden State to even this series. When Durant plays the Dubs average 116.5 ppg on offence and when he sits   they average 6.1 ppg less at 110.4 ppg.

In the 48 times Durant as not played because of injury or personal issues , the Total is 30-18  UNDER for a 63% conversion rate for bettors with the   staying under the total by 5.6 ppg.When Durant is not playing and Curry is in the lineup, the under is 26-15 fora 64% conversion rate for bettors   staying under the total by 5.3 ppg. 

Note:The Raptors previous to game 3  were 1-8-2 UNDER  on the road  in the post season with a combined average score of 209.8 ppg scored.

I keep hammering the under in this series, and I could drastically change my mind based on todays results. However, keep in mind  Im not being swayed by a small game 3 sample size. So lets attack the under again.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Toronto Im betting will continue to play scrappy physical ball here on the road, against the run and gun Dubs. They practiced this in both series against the Bucks and the Sixers and nothing will change tonight in Oakland.The Raptors are 1-8-2 UNDER since Apr 03, 2019 on the road with a combined average score of 209.8 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Golden State's D is very under rated and recently in these play offs held two explosive offences Portland and Houston to 99 and 94 points respectively here at home. More strong stopping capabilities Im betting will be on full display here in game 3.

 .Under is 8-2-1 in Raptors last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 7-3 in Warriors last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 13-6 in Warriors last 19 home games.

Play UNDER 

Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Game 2 - NBA Finals

The Raptors who have owned the best half court D in the postseason  did well in game 1 by focusing their attention on Curry and Thompson and with no Durant on the floor the Raptors should continue to be effective slowing down the splash brothers again. Right now the Warriors just don't have enough outlets, and the Dubs HC Kerr know s this , and being the top tier director and  game facilitator he is Im betting the  ball coach will have his  D prepared to play a more guarded transitional game that will help this score stay on the low side of the total. Also it is highly unlikely key Raptors players like Pascal Siakam will score anywhere near what they did in game one, and that the Dinos offensive output is also curtailed in a game that Im betting stays on the low side of the number. 

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Sunday games.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

Play UNDER

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Raptors enter this game ranked 8th in points per game allowed in the league and 15th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. Both teams have a great deal of offensive talent, but both also have some gritty defensive players. During these play offs the Raptors have made teams like Milwaukee and Philadelphia look less than fluid thanks to their ability to break the flow of their opponents, and Im sure that same formula will be in place Thursday night.It must also be noted that Golden State despite of their reputation as gunslingers also have the ability to play a top tier brand of D, and that Im betting will also be on display.  With that said, Im expecting a chippy physical affair here in Toronto and a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off a home win are 37-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

The Raptors have made the Bucks look bad in the last two meetings on this series. It must be noted that Milwaukee has stayed UNDER 10 straight times with rest when they are off two double-digit ATS losses and the line is  -3 to a pick. Overall  in this series the Bucks and the Raptors have struggled offensively .In game 5 the ugliness of this series was highlighted as  Toronto went 31-of-84 from the field while the Bucks were 38-of-84. The Raptors actually made seven fewer FGs, but they came out on top because they made twelve more charity stripe conversions than the Bucks. Tonight with so much on the line, I expect this to be a very physical game that stays on the low side of the total.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 36-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2

The Raptors looked clumsy and less than fluent offensively in their last game vs the Bucks a OT win , and have actually been less than effective offensively for large portions of these play offs. Im betting that trend will continue tonight. The Raptors over all flow has also effected their opponents like a virus, as has been evident in this series vs the Milwaukee Bucks and the previous series vs the Philadelphia 76ers . Both the Toronto and Milwaukee   converted at less than 40% from the filed in game 3. Note: The Bucks have gone under 10 straight times when coming off a road loss in where they shot less than 40% from the field while  the Raptors  have gone under 7 straight times  in post season play after a game as chalk in which they held their opponent to under 40% shooting from the field. The Raptors are also  0-7 UNDER L/7 in the playoffs with less than two days rest off a home tilt that was tied five-plus times. 

Im expecting a fairly low scoring game here, based on the factors I have pointed out above and on my score projection of this tilt. 

Play UNDER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0

In my betting opinion there is only one way that Portland can possibly steal at least one game in this series, and that is going balls to the walls with all out offensive attack. They have shown their ability to run and gun with the Warriors in the first half of the last two games, before looking fatigued late and eventually capitulating . Now down 3-0 in this series and in desperation mode, Im expecting the Blazers to leave everything on the floor, and to squeeze every last bit of energy they have into this game. This projected  scenario Im betting leads to a high scoring game, that eclipses this total.

PORTLAND is 8-0 OVER  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 237.3 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 12-1 OVER  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

The Bucks, in game 1 of this series showed their rust after a week off, while the Raps showed their fatigue in a  108-100 final on Wednesday. In Game 2 on Friday, the Bucks reved things up  and took a 125-103 victory to take a 2-0 series lead. Now Im betting on the Raptors and the Bucks coming out here with all guns blazing in a game that Im betting eclipses the total.

 The Bucks are 11-4 OVER L/15 on the road with a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored in those 15 tilts. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

 Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - MIL Leads 1-0

The Raptors starters logged a lot of minutes last time out, in game 1 of this series vs the Bucks  and were previously off a 7 game series with the Sixers . So fatigue factors come into play for the Dinos as was the case in the fourth quarter of the last game where  the Raptors were rolled over by a team that they had lead by DDs at different junctures of this matchup. Contrary to belief it takes more effort and stamina to play strong physical defence than to run and gun and wide open fashion and tonight Im betting the Raptors are forced to open up in transition because of the inability to  defend vs a fresher side . This is the lowest total the books have offered from the 5 games these teams have played this year, and the one with the most value for an OVER wager to cash.

MILWAUKEE in 49 games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored.  Toronto in their L/11 after failing to cover the spread in 3 game or more have seen a combined average score of 221.1 ppg scored.

Note: The Raptors have gone  6-0 OVER L/6 as a pup with less than two days rest after a loss in which they were ahead by double digits at some point, going over the number by an average of 23.5 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 7-0 OVER L/7 with less than two days rest off a win as chalk after a victory where they were behind by double digits, going over  the Total by an average of 20 ppg.  

NBA   teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 40-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

Golden State rolled to  a 116-94 win vs Portland in the first game of this series, and Im betting they are just getting ramped up. Portland had issues converting from the field and despite of  being on tired legs did play more efficient conservative ball like they did against Denver, but the Warriors have just to much firepower, so their efforts were muted . With that said, Im expecting this  Portland  Blazers team to man up here and play more aggressive offensive hoops behind their splash brothers Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum  vs the explosive Dubs in a game Im betting will be much higher scoring than the first game. 

Over is 26-8-1 in Trail Blazers last 36 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 11-4 in Trail Blazers last 15 games following a straight up loss.Over is 19-8 in Trail Blazers last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 11-5 in Trail Blazers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

  The Warriors are 8-0 OVER L/8  in  playoff games when they are off a home victory where they held their opposition under their season-to-date shooting percentage average by more than ten percentage points,  going over by an average of +21 ppg.   

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PORTLAND) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight game are 130-89 OVER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 
   
   
 
 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

Portland has really piked up its defensive intensity in these play offs. That was evident vs the Denver Nuggets in this last series. Note: Since late December of 2015, the Denver Nuggets were held to under 37.1% shooting from the field at home in only two games - both were in their playoff series vs Portland. Now the Blazers will go against an explosive Golden State team that they know they wont easily compete against in a run and gun affair, and instead Im betting will focus on a more conservative physical approach here that will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 UNDER  in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 215.6 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 Conference Finals games
Under is 10-3-1 in Warriors last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

I know that play off series when they go deep have a tendency of going under. However all games must  be treated independently of each other. There is just to much offence on the floor here tonight in a game that I have pegged to be closely contested for this total not to breached .

PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 OVER  after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more this season with a combined average of 239.6 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA in 53 games vs up-tempo games where they attempt 88 or more shots this season have seen a combined average of 232.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

As in all NBA play off games that have gone deep into a series the opposing sides are a bit fatigued and both sides are very accustomed to each others offensive schemes and all the necessary defensive adjustments have been accounted for thus a lower scoring affair is not out of the ordinary. Add that both sides do not want to make mistakes, and conservative hoops is the norm that makes a under wager here a viable investment option. 

The L/14 seasons have seen the under go 97-69 UNDER in game 6 and 7s of play off series.

Under is 5-2 in Trail Blazers last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 14-5 in Nuggets last 19 home games.

Play on the UNDER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

These teams have had alot of half court games over the last few seasons, but the two games played in Houston in this series, showed some more wide open hoops. With Houston on the verge of elimination Im betting they unload here in a big way and leave everything on the court in aggressive fashion which will force the Warriors to run and gun with their desperate opponents in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

The Rockets  in their L/10 games since Mar 17, 2019 as a home favorite have seen a combined average score of 220.4 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 15-2 OVER in home games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg going on the score board.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-8 OVER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs with a combined average of 227.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE/HOUSTON ) - in the second round of the playoffs are 104-52 OVER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

With the way the Sixers are shooting, and their flow has been for the last couple of games Im betting they wont just suddenly come out here and light things up. Add to that when the Sixers star Embiid is off the court his team has been a wreck, and with him playing they have really not been been much better, as its obvious to me hes not 100% as  rumors swirl about his fitness and possible ill health at a very inopportune time. Because the Sixers chemistry looks to be a shambles entering this game I fully expect them to have a muted offensive effort in a game that has a high probability of not eclipsing the number.

Under is 6-0-1 in Raptors last 7 road games.Under is 6-0-1 in Raptors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 Thursday games.Under is 4-0-1 in Raptors last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 overall.Under is 8-2 in Raptors last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Under is 7-2-1 in Raptors last 10 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-2-1 in Raptors last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

TORONTO is 24-7 UNDER off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals with a combined average of 190.6 ppg scored. 

 Play UNDER (LATE STEAM)

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - MIL Leads 3-1

The Celtics are now in desperation mode and must get back to what made their opening game in this series a successful one. In game 1 the Celtics held the Bucks to 90 points and got a win, and since than gotten away from the type of defensive ball that has made them successful over the last few seasons. Tonight Im betting they pay very strict attention to D, knowing that they can not out score the Bucks in a fast paced game and are a big time disadvantage. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers and public might expect. 

BOSTON is 17-6 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, with a winning record on the season are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

In game 3 of this series I expected a fairly high scoring game , and it went into OT, and we cashed on the OVER. I saw a tendency towards a faster paced set in game 2, which led me to my assessment,  but now Im expecting a more conservative approach here from both teams, and a half court game which is the norm when these teams go head to head over the last few seasons. Remember both teams saw key players play an extreme amount of minutes ( Harden) and now a fatigue factor must be considered.    Houston is and 0-6 UNDER by an average of more than 14 points  as a favorite in the playoffs after a game with eight-plus lead changes while the Warriors are 0-8  UNDER L/8 staying below the number by more than an average 13 ppg as a road pup with less than two days rest off a road loss in which there were eight-plus lead changes. 

GOLDEN STATE is 23-8 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 215.3 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 77-37 UNDER L5 seasons for 68%conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

 .

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1

Milwaukee has imposed their offensive will on the Celtics in back to back games in this series, scoring 123 points in both tilts (wins), and  now Im betting nothing changes tonight as they hit or eclipse that number, again with Boston having no choice but to open up with their own capable offence and also have a substantial output performance. 

The Bucks are 6-0 L/6 OVER on the road eclipsing the Total by more than 18 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 244.2 ppg.

BOSTON is 8-0 OVER in home games in the second round of the playoffs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored.

MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER in road games versus top tier offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.3 ppg. 

Over is 6-0 in Bucks last 6 road games.Over is 7-0 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 games following a ATS win.Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 overall. Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games following a straight up win.Over is 24-8 in Bucks last 32 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 26-9 in Bucks last 35 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 11-4 in Bucks last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a straight up loss.Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 11-4-1 in Celtics last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

These teams have gone over in 8 of the L/10 meetings here in Boston. 

Play OVER 

The last time these teams played they went into extended OT, and now, so many in the public are expecting a muted offensive effort here today because of fatigue factor. But now with all the value sucked out of the total in downward fashion, Im now betting the OVER is a value wager and a game that should see both teams eclipse the 105+ plateau based on my own projections. Note:DENVER is 33-9 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 44-10 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 10-0 OVER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 245.3 ppg scored.

The Nuggets are 6-0 OVER (18.83 ppg) since Apr 07, 2019 as a road dog with a combined score of 232.5 ppg scored.

DENVER is 10-1 OVER  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PORTLAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 61-25 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

These teams have a history of playing alot of half court games that have gone under the total. However, I noticed an interesting trend of faster paced basketball starting unfold in game 2 in Oakland as the combined score clicked in at 224 points. The Rockets for the most part were expected to  wanted these games to be slower paced, while  the Warriors want to run. Now here in Houston Im expecting the Rockets to be more aggressive and to push the action, and for the Warriors to have no problems reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game that Im betting eclipses the total. 

Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.

GOLDEN STATE in their L/25 games as a # 1 seed in the playoffs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 228.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Denvers success has been predicated on their ability to play top tier defence, as is evident by their 6th overall ppg D, and their 20th ranked offensive output, which includes, a 27th ranked pace. Here on the road Im betting on a very conservative attack set of schemes from Denver, and a physical type approach that will slow down the run and gun Blazers which Im betting results in a much lower scoring game then the linesmakers expect.

DENVER is 15-5 UNDER  in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season which was the case in game 2 of this series ( 187 total point output in a 97-90 loss)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - DEN Leads 1-0

The Nuggets key to success this season, and what has gotten them this far is their defence. The Nuggets offensive output is ranked 20th in the league the defence ranked 6th in ppg allowed and  they own the 27th ranked pace.  I know Portland can light things up in a hurry, but Denver is built to slow teams like this down, and here in the thin air in the Mile High City are better suited for physical action which can be exhausting, and also directly effect the total combined score out come to the low side. 

Under is 13-4 in Nuggets last 17 home games.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 18-7 in Nuggets last 25 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

On Sunday, the Celtics opened the series by cruising to a 112-90 victory, mostly because of how they defended Antetokounmpo Im betting they wont be able to keep the Greek Freak down in two games in a row, in a game Im betting will be played faster and the Bucks chosen pace.  The Bucks own the no.1 offence and the 2nd fast pace in the league and they will be ready to run and gun tonight. The Celtics will be forced into responding with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blow off the court. This will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 30-9 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - TOR Leads 1-0

The first game of this series between the Raptors and their guests the 76ers was played at a very fast pace,  but as  it became obvious in the 4th quarter that the Sixers had no chance of winning the game slowed down to a crawl and both teams combined for  just 30 points in the final end. In game one of this series the Raptors were in full flight with fast breaks the norm, while Philadelphia seems tentative and sat back for the most part . This time around I expect the Sixers to come out here flying , and for the Raptors to easily reciprocate in a game I have pegged to bounce over the total. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 38-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate! 

Play OVER 

The inexperienced  Nuggets must be a little nervous here as they play a game 7, and could easily start conservatively as they make sure not to make mistakes. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off a big time offensive performance and conversion rate, and Im betting they naturally regress here today. That combination Im betting  should help keep this game on the low side of the total. Note: DENVER is 38-17 UNDER L/55 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 197.2 ppg. 

Popovich is 33-19 UNDER in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of SAN ANTONIO with a combined average score 189 .4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

There is a huge amount of offensive talent on the court here today for both teams. The Raptors average 114.4 ppg, while the Sixers have averaged 115.2 ppg. Im betting both teams come at each other and for this game 1 to feature some offensive fireworks. 

Raptors: 119.0 ORtg | 58.9% eFG | 92.9 DRtg | 43.8% eFG allowed

76ers: 123.3 ORtg | 57.7% eFG | 101.1 DRtg | 46.3% eFG allowed.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 36-10 OVER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

I betting the Clippers will be a little fatigued here tonight, as they have played extremely hard in this series , and after going off in their last game a regression is expected by me, vs an under rated Golden State defence. That equals out to what I project will be a total combined score that stays on the low side of the total. In the last 14 seasons , the under is 96-66 UNDER in Game 6 and 7s , for a almost 60% conversion rate for bettors.

GOLDEN STATE in their L/23 games after allowing 120 points or more this season have seen a combined average score of 223.1 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER  in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

Rivers is 14-4 UNDER  in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA CLIPPERS with a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored.

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a above average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 68-30 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play  UNDER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2 

 This series is getting more physical, and both sides are figuring the other sides schemes out. Last time out we saw a lower scoring affair, and Im betting nothing changes here tonight, especially considering the Spurs have to fight for their playoff lives to force a deciding seventh game in Denver on Saturday.

In the last 14 seasons , betting the under in Game 6 and 7 of a playoff series has gone 96-65 UNDER  for a just under 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - an excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-57 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Now that this series is tied 2-2 Im betting we start to see this series turn much more physical as a proverbial dog fight unfolds. I know Denver has shown some offensive flow in the last few games, but they have been hitting 3s at a high rate, but only converting around the rim at a 47.8% clip and a regression must be expected according to my projections. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only taken shots from beyond the arc in 18.3 % of their possessions and continually look to push the ball inside which indicates a concerted effort to dig in play physical ball and do their offensive work around the rim. This Im betting will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers and public might expect.

Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 road games.Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 vs. Western Conference.

Under is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. .Under is 11-3 in Nuggets last 14 home games.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 3-0

James Harden shot 3-of-20 (15%) from the field in the Rockets’ Game 3 victory in Utah and now Im expecting a more efficient outing from the super star and his team as a whole. I know Utah is a defense first team, and really protect the rim well with Gobert , but because of this the  Rockets will have space to shoot 3s, because when the vacuum cleaner as I like to call him, is pulled out of the paint he's out of his comfort zone. With elimination on board for the Rockets Im expecting they become aggressive, and this in turn will force the Jazz to open up which in turn will make for a higher scoring game than the public leaning linesmakers are expecting.  

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 79-33 OVER  L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 3-0

The Pistons haven't shown enough of a defensive presence against a  Bucks team that averaged a league-high 118.1 points a game and their obviously not capable  enough of stopping them again tonight. With Milwaukee on the verge of their first play off round series win in 18 seasons you can bet they will be ready to end this tonight in full beatdown mode. The Pistons will have no choice but to open up and try to keep pace which will make for a total score that eclipses this number. 

Budenholzer in his L/8  road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MILWAUKEE has seen a combined average score of 228.9 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 28-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - POR Leads 2-1

The first two games of this series stayed well below the Total, and in game 3 the total was barely eclipsed very late in the game. Im betting on another hard fought tilt between a Portland side struggling to convert consistently right now, and Oklahoma city team that has underachieved and shot below average all season long. With that said, Im recommending we hit the under again here in game 4. 

Under is 25-11-2 in the last 38 meetings in Oklahoma City.

PORTLAND is 37-17 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 211.9 ppg. 

Under is 5-2 in Thunder last 7 vs. Western Conference.Under is 35-15-1 in Thunder last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 18-7-1 in Thunder last 26 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-6 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 220.5 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-5 UNDER  off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 211.3 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

According to my projections  tell me we have value with an under wager here in this tilt between the Sixers and Nets. This total has gotten bigger with each game,  and now the linesmkaers have over adjusted . Brooklyn cant keep on just trying to run and gun and blow by the Sixers, and Im betting their coaching staff makes enough adjustments here today to thwart the Sixers flow. Afternoon games have a long term tendency of being played at a slower pace which Im betting this aids our under wager cashing.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 UNDER  in the 4th game of a playoff series since 1996.PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 UNDER off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 15-3 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road win, in April games are 51-27 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion .rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - POR Leads 2-0

The Oklahoma City Thunder have exhibited less than stellar shooting prowess all season long,ranking 22nd in in 3 point shooting and things are not getting much better, and have now shot a combined 10-61 (16.4%) from 3-point range in the first two games of this series. Tonight Im betting the Thunders long range futility will contribute to a lower scoring game as will Portlands horrendous 2nd to last play off FG% conversion rate vs a strong rim protection Thunder group.

PORTLAND is 21-9 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 10-1 UNDER  off a home win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 206.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

The two first games of this series have not gone of the Pacers way thanks to in ability to keep their offensive flow going and converting on easy shots, while also allowing them selves to get up in defensive affairs , which the Celtics are looking better at implementing . So tonight Im expecting more flow to the Pacers game as they look to resurrect their chances in this series/ With that said, Im betting  on a tilt that will feature more offence and a faster pace.

NBA team (BOSTON) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 60-29 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

These teams play contrasting styles both home nd away. The Nuggets went under in 25 of their 41 road games and were the most profitable UNDER road team in the league this season  , while the Spurs were 23-18 to the under at home. With that said, after a fairly high scoring game in Denver last time out, Im betting on this one being more conservative and physcial in nature as the young inexperienced Nuggets try to find their footing in a hostile environment. 

Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 Thursday games.Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 13-3 in Nuggets last 16 games following a straight up win.

Under is 14-4 in Nuggets last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 overall.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-4 in Nuggets last 14 road games.Under is 10-4 in Nuggets last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 14-6 in Nuggets last 20 vs. Western Conference.Under is 9-4 in Nuggets last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 10-1 in Spurs last 11 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 home games.Under is 16-5 in Spurs last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Spurs last 8 overall.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 7-3-1 in Spurs last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.Under is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 36-16 in Spurs last 52 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 210.5 (DENVER) - in a playoff game, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 64-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - MIL Leads 1-0

Milwaukee began its pursuit of the franchise's first title since 1971 by cruising past Detroit, 121-86, in Game 1. It was the ninth-most lopsided NBA playoff game of the century and the biggest rout since the Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Boston Celtics, 130-86, in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals on May 19, 2017. I dont think it was a fluke, and Im betting the Bucks do more damage here tonight, but this time around the Motown crew open things up as well, with some offensive fireworks of their own as they try to avoid being embarrassed two games in a row, which will make for a higher scoring affair than the linesmakers expect.

DETROIT is 12-3 OVER  revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 32-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Celtics and Pacers combined to scored 158 points in Game 1, going way under the total. Both teams shot below 40% from the field. Both teams missed wide open shots on a consistent basis and now Im expecting a bounce back and a reversion to the norm and a much high scoring game then last time.

BOSTON is 25-10 OVER in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.2 ppg scored.

NBA team (INDIANA) - off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 42-17 OVER L/22 seasons for a 71 % conversion rate.

Play OVER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - POR Leads 1-0

The first game of this series was low scoring ,but that matchup was an anomaly as compared to the 4 previous meetings between these teams this season which  were all high scoring affairs with 250, 231,237, 220 combined points scored. Im betting on a return to the previous type of offensive affairs in game 2 of this series.

PORTLAND is 12-1 OVER  in home games versus teams that are allowing - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 242.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are126-84 L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play Over

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

Golden State prevailed by blocking 14 shots, limiting the Clippers to 40.4 percent shooting , but both still still a combined 225 points went on the board in game 1 of this series in the Warriors 121-104 win. Im now expecting theClippers to come out here more aggressively as they try to keep track with the explosive Dubs in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Note: The LA CLIPPERS in their L/18 games off a road loss this season have combined to average for 235.2 ppg.

Play OVER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Rockets despite of their explosiveness rank 26th in the NBA in pace and own the 10 best D in the league, and they have gone under the set total in 14 of their L/19 games entering the play offs. Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz own the 4th best ppg D in the league, and bae all their successes and failures on their ability to play D, and here on the road in Houston Im betting they turn this tilt in a slug fest as they try to take the Rockets out of their flow, which will result in a lower score play off affair. 

HOUSTON is 24-9 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 13-5 UNDER  against Northwest division opponents this season.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in April games are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA team (HOUSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in April games are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

Boston ranked 8th in ppg defence this season and 16th in pace, and 14th in offence. Meanwhile, Indiana ranked 1st in ppg allowed, 24th in pace, and 22nd on offence and base all their successes and failures on this stopping abilities. Nothing will change today as they force an inconsistent Boston side, in operating in a defensive mode as well, in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

INDIANA is 15-4 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. INDIANA is 22-8 UNDER   versus good shooting teams - making 46%or more  of their shots this season

NBA team (BOSTON/INDIANA) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in April games are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA/BOSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in April games are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

 Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Raptors are an explosive side, but their D, was key to their successes this season and ranked 4th in defensive efficiency this season. Meanwhile, Orlando, ranked 5th in ppg allowed behind the 25th ranked pace and the 24th ppg ranked offence and obviously got to the post season thanks to their methodic defensive nature and nothing will change today. 

ORLANDO is 21-8 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg. 

Clifford is 23-11 UNDER (+10.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or better of their shots as the coach of ORLANDO with a combine average of 211 ppg scored. 

Play  UNDER 

Denver can claim the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with a win over Minnesota on Wednesday night. So you can bet they will play hard shutdown basketball here. Look for the banged up Minnesota Wolves to just go through the motions here, in the high altitudes of the Mile High City in what Im betting will be a lower scoring game the public might expect. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 211.3 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MINNESOTA) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 47-18 UNDER L2 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 After suffering a ugly 113-109 loss to the host Los Angeles Lakers the Jazz were embarrassed and their coach extremely cranky. Tonight Im betting on a rebound . Im alos betting on a more focused group that will concentrate on what has made the Jazz such a potent team down the stretch and that is the ability to play a top tier brand of defensive hoops. Utah ranks 3rd in ppg allowed and 2nd in in defensive efficiency.  Meanwhile, Denver has also been playing more conservatively in transition as the season winds down, and have seen a combined average of just 210.6 ppg scored in their L/5 trips to the hardwood.  This game has the makings of a hard fought defensive divisional affair. 

Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 14-3 in Nuggets last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 games following a straight up loss.Under is 21-6 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 17-5 in Nuggets last 22 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 17-5 in Nuggets last 22 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 overall.Under is 10-3 in Nuggets last 13 road games.Under is 10-3 in Nuggets last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-3 in Nuggets last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 12-4 in Nuggets last 16 vs. Western Conference.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 games following a ATS win.

Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up loss.Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 games following a ATS loss.Under is 8-1 in Jazz last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-2 in Jazz last 9 home games.Under is 10-3 in Jazz last 13 vs. Western Conference.Under is 14-5 in Jazz last 19 Tuesday games.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 

Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Utah.Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings.

 Play UNDER

There is still alot to play for when Denver and Portland go head to head tonight as they jockey for post season seeding. The Nuggets took a  109-100 win over the Trail Blazers on Friday in Denver and now in the rematch expect another tightly contested Defensive affair that remains on the low side of the total. Quote:"He was phenomenal,"  HC Malone said of the 6-foot-7 Craig. "His defense, his offense -- everything he did out there."The Nuggets were aggressive with their defense and the referees let a lot of the rough stuff go."It was very physical out there," said Portland center Enes Kanter, who scored 24 points and grabbed seven rebounds. "Their big men -- Jokic, Millsap and (Mason) Plumlee -- they were hitting me extra. But it's the NBA -- no complaining." END QUOTE Rinse and repeat here . 

Under is 14-2 in Nuggets last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 12-2 in Nuggets last 14 games following a straight up win.Under is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 road games.Under is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 17-4 in Nuggets last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 21-5 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 12-3 in Nuggets last 15 vs. Western Conference.Under is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 games following a ATS win.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 overall.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 19-7 in Nuggets last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

 Play UNDER 

The Brooklyn Nets grabbed a  up a huge victory on  Saturday night  to boost their  NBA playoff chances, and  grabbing another  win here would be huge for them in their chase for post season play against a team that has owned them of late  .  Im betting they come out here shooting darts, and push a the capable offense of the Pacers into a faster paced game. I know  These teams play converging styles of basketball, but when they met earlier this season, Indiana took a  132-112 win in  Indianapolis on Oct. 20 and Im betting on another fairly high scoring tilt here that eclipses this total. 

BROOKLYN is 13-4 OVER  in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.9 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 20-8 OVER (+11.2 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230 ppg scored,

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning teams are 40-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.\

Play OVER 

The Detroit Pistons will host the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday in a matchup of teams still competing for a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference.With that said, Im betting on a hard fought physical affair that will focus on both teams trying to be mistake free which will make for muted affair . 

DETROIT is 22-11 UNDER  after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of those 33 games clicking in at 210.6 ppg.The Pistons  have gone under 12 straight times a as a favorite off a loss when Andre Drummond had negative plus/minus in each of their last three games with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored.Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.Hornets Borrego is 16-4 UNDER  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread in all games he has coached  with a combined average of 211.3 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games.  are 34-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Two teams with really nothing to play for go head to head tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total.

Grizzlies own the 30th ranked pace in the league, and are ranked  30th in offence, and 9th in defensive rating and here on the road today will try to turn this into a grinding sleepfest. 

The Mavericks have gone under in 9 of their L/12 overall since Jan 07, 2019 as a favorite with a combined average 211 ppg scored. 

DALLAS is 13-4 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 209.6 ppg. DALLAS is 9-1 UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. 

MEMPHIS is 16-6 UNDER  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored.  MEMPHIS is 12-2 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MEMPHIS) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 86-46 UNDER L/22 seasons are 65% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Sacramento plays a one way attack orientated basketball behind the 3rd ranked pace and  10 best offensive output in the NBA and their D, remains suspect allowing an 114.9 ppg which ranks 26th in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have been playing very wide open basketball for quite a while as well, as is evident by going over in 5 straight games with a combined average of 231 ppg going on the board. Note: The Cavaliers rank 30th in D efficiency in the league and tonight Im betting that will be exasperated in a tilt I have pegged to eclipse this total. 

 NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SACRAMENTO) - after a combined score of 225 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 114-57 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

 The Philadelphia 76ers took part in a run and gun affair last night in Atlanta that they lost130-122, and  now tonight on tired legs with the likely hood of Joel Embiid not playing and  Jimmy Butler possibly resting and not playing or seeing limited action  Im betting the 76ers will not be ready to run and gun and instead try to figure out a way to play better defence against a top tier opponent  the Bucks. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is also short handed  from a bench perspective and banged up despite of Kris Middleton supposedly playing tonight and star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court. No matter how much each plays , Im still expecting a more defensive orientated post season type affair that will feature more defensive postures than offensive onslaughts despite of both sides obvious abilities to put points on the board. 

PHILADELPHIA is 19-7 UNDER after a combined score of 245 points or more since 1996 with a combined average of 207 ppg on the scoreboard.

PHILADELPHIA is 19-9 UNDER  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in April games are 45-19 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 62-27 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 This game is being projected to be high scoring, but Im betting the number is just to high despite of how the public views these teams and what kind of scoring output should be expected. It must be noted that MARSHALL is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 157.8 ppg scored.MARSHALL is 6-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 157.9 ppg scored. MARSHALL is 9-2 UNDER  in a home game where the total is 160 or more  this season.

WI-GREEN BAY is 22-9 UNDER  off a home win over the last 3 seasons with combined average of 151.1 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Thundering Herd last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 home games.Under is 7-1 in Thundering Herd last 8 non-conference games.Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 overall.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Under is 5-0 in Phoenix last 5 Thursday games.Under is 4-0 in Phoenix last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Phoenix last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Phoenix last 5 non-conference games.

Play UNDER 

Denver enters this game playing at a more methodical pace of late, then was the case earlier this season, with defence being the mainstay of their successes and failures which is evident by seeing 16 of their L/19 games stay under the set total. Nothing will change tonight vs the explosive Warriors, who also are now into play off preparation mode and also paying attention to their defensive game especially in transition as is evident by seeing 12 of their L/15 games stay on the low side of the total. 

Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 games following a ATS loss.Under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 road games.Under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 12-3 in Nuggets last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 18-5 in Nuggets last 23 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 21-7 in Nuggets last 28 overall.Under is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Warriors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 home games.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a ATS win.Under is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 12-3 in Warriors last 15 overall.Under is 8-2 in Warriors last 10 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 games following a straight up win.Under is 14-5 in Warriors last 19 vs. NBA Northwest. Under is 35-17 in Warriors last 52 Tuesday games.

HC  Kerr  of Golden State in his L/25  home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season has seen a combined average of 210.5 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 21-6 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.3 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 12-3 UNDER  in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203 ppg.

DENVER is 24-11 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 218 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 34-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Lakers despite of being without LeBron James are showing some offensive flow and are off scoring a 130-102 road win vs New Orleans. Im betting on that attacking mode to continue here vs Oklahoma city tonight in a game Im betting goes over the beatable total. Note:Over is 10-1-1 in Lakers last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

The last time the Lakers visited Oklahoma city on Jan 17 the teams took part in a 138-128 offensive slugfest and Im betting in a similar output again. Note: James also did not play in that game. 

NBA team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off an road win scoring 110 or more points are 78-42 OVER L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

The Timberwolves  are still playing hard despite of not going to play offs this season. That was evident when they  rallied from a 19-point third-quarter deficit to take out  the shocked Warriors. Minnesota also  trailed 38-20 after one quarter and got to within three points in the fourth quarter in a 118-109 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday. So tonight, Im betting they come out here shooting darts in full attack mode, and come right at the Blazers, and in turn Portland ranked 6th in offensive output will have to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own or face the same upset issues as Golden State did, and what  Philadelphia almost experienced. With that said, Im betting on a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 63-34 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Knicks against the banged up Bulls Im betting will put up a boatload full of points on the scoreboard, with the Bulls chasing their opponents in wide open fashion . It's obvious by my previous statement that Im expecting  this game to played loosely because of this meeting being of no importance in the NBA standings or to two teams headed for a golf vacations and not the post season. No where in tomorrows  main stream media headlines describing this tilt- will "DEFENCE " be mentioned. 

The Bulls 25th ranked D,  has struggled recently which is a good omen for this game being fairly high scoring.CHICAGO is 8-1 OVER  after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher this season with a combined average of 229.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

Indiana owns he No.1 D, in the league, and are 23rd in pace, and at this time of year as the play offs approach even more methodical than usual. Meanwhile, the Pistons are ranked 7th and ppg allowed D, and 28th in pace, and are also methodical in their approach. Both teams dont score a prolific amount of points ranking 22nd and 23 in ppg, so a defensive minded old school pro hoops game looks like a viable out come scenario. 

INDIANA is 32-12 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 202.3 ppg scored. 

Under is 15-7 in Pistons last 22 road games.

Under is 33-15-4 in Pistons last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 24-9 in Pacers last 33 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 13-5 in Pacers last 18 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 28-11 in Pacers last 39 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 9-4 in Pacers last 13 overall.Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.Under is 17-8 in Pacers last 25 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (INDIANA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 32-11 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Clippers flew past the  Cleveland Cavaliers in Los Angeles on Saturday while shooting a season-best 62.4 percent from the field, two days after their showdown at Milwaukee ended with a 128-118 defeat to the Bucks. Note: The Clippers have gone over in 7 of their L/8 and in the  Clippers last 5 games they has seen a combined average of  235.4 ppg scored  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies guard Mike Conley, who scored 33 points in Saturday's 120-115 victory the Suns and now look to be in a groove offensively and should be able to hang here tonight in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Note: The Grizzlies have gone over in 6 of their L/7 overall with a combined average of 225.2 ppg scored. These teams have gone over in the L/5 meetings here and one more OVER Im betting is on tonights agenda. 

Play OVER 

  The Oklahoma City Thunder learned Saturday night they're once again headed to the playoffs.Now today Im expecting this banged up and hobbled group to rest some of their player to extent this afternoon in a game that wont have alot of intensity attached to it. 

Luka Doncic is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Oklahoma City ( Thigh ) and that will effect the Dallas offence here tonight. 

 None of the L/L/6 meetings in this series have eclipsed the 224 point opening total and at 221 we still have value. 

 UNDER 

Elite 8 games have been historically played at a slower pace than the rest of the NCAA tourney. Auburns proven all season long that their offense is a strength but with key cog Okeke out or less than 100% their flow will be effected as well as their output. Meanwhile, Kentucky is now basing their successes and failures on a top tier brand of hoops and are playing at a distinctly slower pace than the pundits are expecting going under in 17 of their L/22 overall and 3 straight tourney games. Today against a Tigers side that shoots alot of 3s , Im betting the. Wildcats will be at their best as has been evident during the tournament holding opponents to 32.5% conversion rates from beyond the arc. Look for a much more stringent game than expected and a score that does not eclipse the total. 

Play UNDER

Suns Emerging star  Devon  Booker scored 59 points in Monday's 125-92 road loss to the Utah Jazz and Im betting him and his team come out firing darts again and force Memphis into a faster paced game than thye might prefer. It must be noted that Memphis has really picked up their pace of late, and have been taking part in some more wide open games and that will be the case again tonight. In the Grizzlies L/5 games a combined average of 228.4 ppg have gone on the board and int their L/8 overall have allowed an average of 125 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 67-30 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Im betting on Virginia implementing  a physical battle as they prepare to take advantage of their rebound efficiency advantage (51st-highest defensive rebounding rate) . Im also betting they will be prepared to really slow this game down behind the slowest pace in College Hoops and control the flow because as we know the Cavs prefer not to take part in run and gun affairs if possible. We all know Virginias key to success or failure is based on D, and is evident by holding their forst 3 opponents in this tourney to 56, 51 and 49 points respectively. Meanwhile, Purdues key to success has been their downtown shooting, and against the nations 2nd rank perimeter D that allows opponents to shoot 28.2% from beyond the arc,  the Boilermakers offensive output would and could  easily  be thwarted. This above combination will result in a combined score that remains on the low side if the Total. Note: Bennett is 21-9 UNDER  in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 122.5 ppg scored.

PURDUE is 11-2 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons.VIRGINIA is 22-8 UNDER  on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 121 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

TexasTech has a strong defence, but they are no slouches on offence  and should be pushed a bit here by the highest scoring team in the nation Gonzaga. The Raiders when forced to score can light it up as was the case against Iowa State, Kansas ,  Baylor, West Virginia  and TCU scoring more than 80 points in those games, and prior to their game against Michigan in the Sweet 16 averaged almost 8- points per game over a 10 game conference span. With that said, look for a much higher scoring game then the lines-makers might expect. 

TEXAS TECH is 6-0 OVER  after a game committing 8 or less turnovers this season with a combined average for a 149.1 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Charlotte has been playing run and gun basketball for most of this season behind the 22nd ranked defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Lakers a team that is also defensively in the lower tier of the NBA ranked 24th in ppg allowed. Tonight Im betting on a Charlotte team chasing a play off spot to come out here with their hair on fire and to force the Lakers into firing away with some offensive fireworks of their own which Im betting leads to a fairly high scoring affair. 

CHARLOTTE is 8-0 OVER in road games when playing with 2 days rest this season with a combined average of 237.8 ppg scored. 

CHARLOTTE is 27-8 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 229.3 ppg. CHARLOTTE is 13-3 OVER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 230.1 ppg going on the board. 

 NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 125-68 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), on Friday nights are 48-22 OVER L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 

Denver looked exhausted last night in Houston losing by DDs, and scoring only 85 points and in their previous two games scored 88 and 95 points. Im betting their scoring deficiencies on wobbly legs will manifest themselves again in what Im betting will be a much lower scoring game here in Oklahoma City than the lines- makers expect. 

DENVER is 9-1 UNDER  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season iwht a combined average of 211 ppg scored.DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in March games this season with a combined average of 212.3 ppg gong on the board.

Donovan is 32-18 UNDER (+12.2 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with a combined average of 214.9 ppg. 

Play on the UNDER 

NCAA - Midwest Regional Semifinals - Sprint Center - Kansas City, MO

We all know North Carolina runs their offence at a very fast pace, and Im betting Auburn will feed into this energy and that we will have a back forth pro style game played with plenty of points going on the board. 

Auburn averages just under 80 ppg on the season and N.Carolina averages 86 ppg. 

 AUBURN is 20-7 L/27 OVER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game after 15+ games .

Play OVER