NCAA - East Regional Semifinals - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC

Michigan State  an extremely capable team will be prepared to play lock down defence against a explosive LSU offence here today. Im sure Tom Izzos game plan will be to take the flow away for the Tigers, which will result in much lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers expect. 

Michigan State in their L/4 games have allowed, 55,60, 65,50 points respectively. 

LSU is 9-1 UNDER when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament since 1997.

MICHIGAN ST is 6-0 UNDER  after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less this season. MICHIGAN ST is 11-1 UNDER  in road games after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.

MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games this season. MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 UNDER  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. 

 NCAA teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 132-79 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Celtics rank 8th in ppg allowed, and will go against a Indiana team that ranks 1st in ppg allowed and 23rd in pace, and 22nd in offensive output. Indiana has been struggling of late having lost 9 straight road games, which Im betting makes them even more conservative and methodical in their approach to this game, which will help  keep the combined score on the low side of the total. Note: INDIANA is 7-0 UNDER  after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored.

INDIANA is 15-3 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored.INDIANA is 11-2 UNDER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored.INDIANA is 22-7 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 210.9 ppg going on the board. INDIANA is 21-6 UNDER in March games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored. 

Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 road games.Under is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 overall.Under is 13-3 in Pacers last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 24-7-1 in Pacers last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 24-8 in Pacers last 32 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 6-2 in Pacers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a ATS loss.Under is 36-15 in Pacers last 51 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 26-12 in Pacers last 38 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 13-5 in Celtics last 18 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Boston.

Play on the UNDER 

College Insider Tournament - Quarterfinals

My own projections make this total closer to 152 which gives us value on a least a 2 possession number. 

WI-GREEN BAY is 9-0 UNDER  off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

WI-GREEN BAY is 11-2 UNDER in home games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more since 1997

CS-BAKERSFIELD is 7-1 UNDER after playing a game as a road underdog this season. 

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (WI-GREEN BAY) - poor defensive team - allowing 77+ points/game on the season, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 211-138 UNDER L/22 for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

CBB Home teams against the total (WI-GREEN BAY) - team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are . 34-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

NCAA - South Regional Semifinals - KFC Yum Center - Louisville, KY

These teams run two the slowest most deliberate paces in all of College Hoops, and in a game as important as this Im betting on a combined score that fails to eclipse the total as physical grinding action should be key. 

Virginia allows just 55 points per game, and Oregon just 62.5 ppg.

DEFENCE, DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more defence. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 119.5 or less (OREGON/VIRGINIA) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or better ) after 15+ games are 34-10 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

NCAA - West Regional Semifinals - Honda Center - Anaheim, CA

Texas TEch and Michigan both play at a methodical pace, and both base their entire success or failures on playing a top tier brand of defence. The Red Raiders have allowed an average of 59.2 ppg while Michigan has allowed 58.2 ppg. Look for this matchup to be a grinding physical affair that stays on the low side of the total. 

MICHIGAN is 15-8 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season.  TEXAS TECH is 8-1 UNDER  in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. 

 CBB Neutral court teams against the total (MICHIGAN) - after allowing 50 points or less against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 75-35 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

  Play UNDER 

Houston hosts Denver  tonight , needing a victory to clinch the season series and home-court advantage in  case of these teams being tied at the end of the season. With that said,Im expecting a hard fought physical affair with both teams knowing the importance of this game.  Recently the Rockets have been really been paying better attention to defence, and  as a result have gone under in 11 of their L/13 games in March with a combined average score of 212.5 ppg scored. Denver their opposition has also been playing more conservatively as have gone under in 10 of their 12 games in March with a combined average score of 213.7 ppg scored. DENVER is also 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 213.4 ppg scored.  

Play UNDER 

New York has an atrocious defence, especially of late as is evident by allowing 124.6 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood. The explosive Raptors now come in ready to run and gun and keep their offensive flow going as the play offs approach, which will see them put a boatload full of points on the board here vs a team that could best be described as being in tank mode. I dont expect for their to be much defence on display tonight in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

TORONTO is 26-16 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 224.7 ppg scored. TORONTO is 14-4 OVER  after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.2 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 11-2 OVER  in home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 44-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 The Mavericks don't have anything left to play for, while, the Heat are in a chase for a play off spot. I don't think the Mavs will give the Heat a pass here, and will try to play spoilers in this spot, while the Heat will take no chances and put the pedal to the metal and will be ready to deliver a conclusive win and I don't think there will be any coasting to the finish line ,  if they get up,  which Im betting results in this score being eclipsed. 

Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. 

Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 vs. Western Conference.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. NBA Southwest.Over is 12-4 in Heat last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Play OVER 

Gonzaga is often looked at for their explosive offence, but they are ranked 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency and have held their opposition to 43% FG which ranks them 6th in the nation. Meanwhile athletic Florida State owns the 10th best adjusted defensive efficiency and have the ability to put alot of pressure on the Bulldogs attack . Im betting on this game staying under the total.

When these teams met last year (March 22) the Seminoles took a 75-60 win, and Im betting on a similar combined output in the rematch. 

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GONZAGA) - red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or more ) are 68-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 In the frustrating 21-point loss at Orlando on Monday, the Sixers went nearly 12 minutes during one stretch without a field goal and there have been a few of those stretches lately, which could be signalling   an ominous flash sign of a imminent  scoring slump. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is off a 148-144 OT loss, to Portland last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot that would see them revert  back closer to their season offensive road average of 110 ppg or less in  Philadelphia against a 76ers team that has  allowed 109 ppg at home. Note: BROOKLYN is 15-5 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average score of 215.3 ppg scored.  

PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 UNDER in home games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216 ppg scored. 

 PHILADELPHIA is 19-8 UNDER  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 25-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Orlando has seen 12 of their L/14 games stay on the low side of the total behind a 24th ranked pace and a D that ranks 5th in the league in ppg allowed and a offence that ranks 25th . Meanwhile, Detroit ranks 28th in pace and 7th in defence and a offence ranked 23rd. With that said , despite of the new NBA featuring alot of offence, we are at a juncture in the season when teams like this vying for a play off spot are very stringent with their D, especially if all their successes and failures hinge on top tier defence like these combatants. 

ORLANDO is 19-7 UNDER in March games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 205.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DETROIT) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off a road win are 37-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

NIT - Quarterfinals

Texas outside their conference in their recent NIT games have looked alot more offensively cohesive, scoring 79 and 78 points in back to back games thanks in part to the emergence of Courtney Ramey a young man that shows alot of  talent and leadership abilities . Tonight the the Longhorns will go against a Colorado team, that can light it up when need be, as was evident in a recent battle with UCLA popping 93 points on the board. When I look at both teams weaknesses and strengths it becomes obvious to me that their will be alot more scoring here than the lines-makers anticipate. 

Boyle is 16-7 OVER after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less as the coach of COLORADO  with a combined average of 144.5 ppg scored.

Boyle is 6-0 OVER  in road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half as the coach of COLORADO with a combined average of 160 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Chicago is expected to be without guard Zach LaVine (thigh) and forward Otto Porter Jr. (shoulder) tonight after playing  Tuesday's  game without them losing by a 112-103 score on the road.( If they do play they wil see limited time )The Bulls banged up and short handed will not be in any condition to run and gun and will instead try to formulate a more conservative game plan against a better team in Portland that is also playing without key guard CJ McCoullm which Im betting will result in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse the total. 

CHICAGO is 22-13 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 214.5 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER  in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average of 201.5 ppg. 

CHICAGO is 13-4 UNDER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or  less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 208.2 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHICAGO) - after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 37-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

DePaul averages 80.4 ppg in offence at home this season, while Coastal Carolina allows just under 80 ppg on D overall . Meanwhile,Coastal Carolina is off of scoring more than 100 points against West Virginia in their last game and are flowing with the basketball as they enter this game, and will be up to the task of running and gunning with their exploisve opponents tonight in what Im betting will be a back and forth event. 

DEPAUL is 7-1 OVER  in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games this season with a combined average of 168 ppg going on the board.DEPAUL is 6-0 OVER in March games this season with a combined average of 173.6 ppg going on the board.

Play on the OVER 

 The Wizards play a one way type of offensive basketball ranking 8th in scoring and 29th in ppg allowed,  and are well rested entering this game and will once again been in sprint mode vs a Lakers team that is ranked 24th in ppg allowed and ranks 3rd in pace. This one has all the makings of a back and forth offensive slugfest that will eclipse this number. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 OVER  when playing with 2 days rest this season with a combined average of  240 ppg scored.

Also Washington was upset at home last time out, and when this has accorued recently the Wizards have blasted off on a torrid back forth pace in their followup,  Note: WASHINGTON is 8-1 OVER  off an upset loss as a home favorite this season with a combined average score of 242.3 ppg going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 54-21 OVER L/22seasons for a 72 % conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

 Play OVER  

 Detroit are on tired legs as they play their 5th straight road in game in the last 8 days. Needless to say that up here in the thin air of the Mile High city , they will be in no shape or form ready to run the floor, and instead will be conservative in their approach to this tilt which will directly effect the total output of this game. Considering that Denver owns the 26th ranked pace, it will be an easy decision to recommend a under wager.

Under is 12-4 in Pistons last 16 vs. Western Conference.Under is 19-8-1 in Pistons last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

DETROIT is 25-13 UNDER  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14  or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.8 ppg. DETROIT is 9-0 UNDER in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored. DETROIT is 27-7 UNDER (when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.9 ppg going on the board.DETROIT is 14-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored. DETROIT is 13-2 UNDER  after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 205.2 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 8-1 in Nuggets last 9 games following a ATS loss.Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 home games.Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 overall. 

DENVER is 16-3 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season with a combine average of 210 ppg scored. 

Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 156-85 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

When the teams met earlier this season  Milwaukee took a 116-109 in Houston on Jan. 9. Now as the season starts to wind down and the play offs approach I look for a more defensive style game, that will help see this total stay under the set total. Note: HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored.

 HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 217.6 ppg going on the board. HOUSTON is 16-5 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or more ) over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 212.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 210.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 47-13 UNDER L/ 22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 37-12 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

In the new NBA where high scoring affairs are very normal, a high total like this does not hold as much value as it once did for sharp under bettors.  Now the smart money recognizes the long term value of crushing totals like this based on obvious data observations. Tonight with Atlanta a team with the worst ppg defence in the league behind the 2nd fastest pace, we have a situation that bodes well for a very high scoring game. With both these teams New Orleans and Atlanta playing for very  little other than padding personal stats, Im really expecting an all star game type output . The Pelicans rank 3rd in ppg offence and 27th in ppg allowed and 4th in pace and will more than ready to run and gun here with the visitors. There will be no call for defence, defence , defence in this one. 

Play OVER 

NIT Tournament - Quarterfinals

 India star Langford has missed Indiana’s first two NIT games after experiencing a back issue at the Big Ten Tournament and if he plays he will be limited, which in turn will continue to hinder  the Hoosiers flow which is a thick a oil anyway. Indiana’s struggles from outside as three-pointers, which ranks No. 299 in the try in three-point rate, and the Hoosiers make just 31.2 percent of them, the No. 314 mark in the country, so rounding up points in bunches is not an option. Indiana has been able to compete because of a defense that ranks No. 29 on KenPom , and  in their two NIT victories, the Hoosiers D kept both St. Francis (0.98) and Arkansas (0.90) under one point per possession and Im betting on more of the same here vs Wichita State. Meanwhile, WSU’s defense, which has done well limiting shots at the rim (33 percent, No. 93 nationally) and also defending shots at the rim (55.4 percent, No. 42 nationally) will be behemouth keeping a Indiana team that scores most of its points in close to struggle which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total. 

 INDIANA is 11-3 UNDER  in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 129.5 ppg scored. INDIANA is 9-2 UNDER  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined 128.9 ppg scored. 

CBB Home teams against the total (INDIANA) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Tuesday nights are 109-66 UNDER L/5 seasons  for a 62% conversion rate. 

CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals

Its never easy for a team like Brown travelling for East to West, and their internal clocks should be effected , which should effect their offensive flow. This Brown team bases its successes and failures on their ability to play strong D, so that wont be effected here, but will directly make for a much slower paced conservative game plan, which in turn Im betting  will see a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. BROWN is 11-1 UNDER as a road underdog or pick this season.BROWN is 13-1 UNDER in road lined games this season.

It must also be noted that Loyola Marymount is also playing some strong defence, and   is 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 55 points or less this season whichwas the case last time out. 

Play on the UNDER 

Southern Utah average almost 80 ppg at home this season, and Im betting they hit that plateau here again, while CS Bakersfield does all they can to keep pace behind a offence tha taverages 71.2 ppg this season.

CS Bakersfield averages 37.5 rebounds a game with Southern Utah averaging 36.8 rebound per game. Note: SOUTHERN UTAH is 14-4 OVER  when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 157.2 ppg.

SOUTHERN UTAH is 7-0 OVER in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons something they have just achieved with a combine average of 161.5 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER 

Memphis ranks 30th in pace in the NBA , 30th in ppg on offence and 2nd in ppg allowed .  Their home scoring out put on the season at home clicks in at 103 ppg and have allowed 102 ppg at as hosts during the current campaign.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is ranked 4th in defensive efficiency in the league, and of late have been trying to pay alot more attention to defence as the play offs approach. With that said, Im betting these two teams current state of hoops operation gives us an edge with an under wager in this spot play.

MEMPHIS is 32-19 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 207.3 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 12-4 UNDER  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season with a combined average of 203.1 ppg.

  MEMPHIS is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons and 13-1 UNDER  in home games after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 16-3 UNDER  after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season with a combined average of 202 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games are 34-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

I was waiting to see if LeBron James was going to play tonight for the Lakers and now that he is probable Ill pull the trigger on a over bet. Sacramento and LAL both are both fast paced teams with the Lakers ranking 4th and the Kings ranking 1st. With that said, Im betting on these sides coming at each other with a full head of steam and combine for total score that eclipses this number.

The Lakers beat the Kings 121-114 here on Dec 30 this season.SACRAMENTO is 12-4 OVER in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 239 ppg scored. In the two most recent meetings in this series this season these teams scored an average of 234 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Detroit HC Dwane Casey exhausted his starters   in a game that started late last night. The Pistons then had to make the 90-minute flight into the San Francisco Bay Area, finally getting settled well into the morning on a day in which they're scheduled for an early (5:30 p.m. Pacific) start. The Pistons now on tired legs and dealing with unfortunate scheduling just wont be up to playing the physical brand of D, thye need to to be able to slow the Warriors down. Im betting on Golden State off a ugly 91 point output last time out to  really rev things up here and to put a boatload full of points on the board in a game I have pegged to go over the total. 

DETROIT is 7-0 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. with a combined average o f223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more are 38-12 OVER L/5  seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten game are 122-80 OVER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC

Teams like Oklahoma and Virginia that play at a pace of 65 or less have gone under the total 61%+ of the time since the 2005 season.

OKLAHOMA is 12-4 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season. 

 Neutral court teams against the total (OKLAHOMA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63  or less PPG), after a combined score of 165 points or more are 73-34 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA

These teams played each other earlier this season with VTEch winning and both know what to expect. HC McKay of Liberty is  a former Virginia assistant,  and implements UVa’s Pack Line defense. Also heres a hint at what I expect as quoted from a Liberty players: QUOTE: “We’ll just try to play our style of basketball and not get lured into playing their style, … try not to get into more of an uptempo game,” END QUOTE: Flames guard Lovell Cabbil Jr. said. The Hokies focus defensively on keeping teams out of the paint and forcing foes to beat them from 3-point range and thats not easy, thus I can see this game staying on the lower side of the number.

My projections based on both teams systems suggests a score that fails to eclipse this total. 

 LIBERTY is 7-1 UNDER  after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season.

VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 UNDER in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons

VIRGINIA TECH is 83-59 UNDER in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game since 1997. 

Play on the UNDER 

 NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC

We all know the elite transition offence that Duke has lead by Zion Williamson. Also Duke has been a power house all season long from inside the arc, accumulating the 21st highest 2 point scoring conversion rate in the nation at 55.7% , and even with  7 "6 Taco Fall in the paint Im betting will still do a fair amount of damage offensively. On the flip side, the Blue Devils have have struggled in a 2 point defensive conversion rates allowing the 14th highest 2 [point scoring rate in the nation at 55.1%. Both these teams can play D, and both have similar length, but Im betting that the line is still just a tad to low and offers value to the over at up to 145. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UCF) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or less), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 50-23 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

The Pacers are leagues No.1 team in ppg allowed at 104.2 and own the 23rd ranked pace and just 22nd in offence  and base all their successes and failures on their D and nothing will change tonight against a Denver team that is extremely tired as they play their 3rd road game in 4 days. Im betting on the Pacers defensive prowess and the Nuggets tired legs to contribute a muted total score that fails to eclipse this total. 

 
INDIANA is 7-0 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored.McMillan is 15-4 UNDER  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of INDIANA with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored.

NBA home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 154-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 51-18 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNDER 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable for tonight and if he plays could see limited time thanks to some less than serious nagging ankle issues.The Bucks suffered another setback Saturday night with reports that center Pau Gasol will miss the rest of the regular season with an injured left ankle. This could take away  from the Bucks flow tonight which will directly effect overall offensive output, which in turn will help keep this score at the lower end of the spectrum. Also considering that the Bucks own the leagues No.1 defensive efficiency rate , a Cleveland team that ranks 29th in pace and and 29th in offensive output could easily find themselves dragging along here in a sleeper game than many expect.

MILWAUKEE is 11-3 UNDER versus lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 11-1 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Alot of the public perceives the Washington Huskies as a slower paced defensive team, but when pushed as was the case against Utah State last time out, they can really rev up their pace. TodayIm expecting North Carolina to have a lot of offensive possessions thanks to their superior offensive rebounding ( Huskies rank 345th in the nation in O rebounding) .With that said look for the  Huskies to have to run and gun to keep up here in a game the linesmakers expect will be a white wash favouring N.Carolina. 

WASHINGTON is 10-2 L/12 OVER in road games versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season after 15+games  with a combined average score of 158.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Grizzlies are 7-3 in their last 10 home games and  it   began with a 108-106 victory  over Minnesota on Feb. 5.  Note: MINNESOTA is 12-1 OVER   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 238.5 ppg scored.With that said, Im betting the Wolves come here and force, and push the Grizzlies into a back and forth scoring fest , which the Grizzlies have looked comfortable in of late with their last four games seeing a combined 249.7 ppg scored with all four easily going over the set total.

Play on the OVER 

Utah ranks 2nd in defensive rating in the NBA  and just 19th in offensive output, thus making playing defensive hoops a priority. The Jazz have kept 4 of their L/7 opponents under the 98 point plateau and Im betting will be ready to once again play some staunch defensive hoops in this spot vs the Bulls. Considering the Bulls are ranked 27th in offence in the league this season behind the 20th ranked pace , I wont be surprised if their output is limited, which in turn will help keep this score on the low side of the total. 

 CHICAGO is 21-12 UNDER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 69-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Wells Fargo Arena - Des Moines, IA

I know these teams play stringent defensive ball, but Im betting on them eclipsing this total based on my projections which estimate both will hit the 60 point plateau in a back and forth affair. 

Beilein is 90-59 OVER after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers as the coach of MICHIGAN. 

MICHIGAN is 12-4 OVER (after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half over the last 2 season.

 CBB teams where the total is 119.5 or less (MICHIGAN/FLORIDA) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%) are 60-22 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

  Tigers can  score, but their a below average team from beyond the arc. LSU shoots just 32.1 percent from downtown, which ranks No. 286 out of 353 Division I teams. With that said, Im betting Maryland slows down the explosive Tigers by derailing their transition game , and holding down their opponents from beyond the arc, which will translate into a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

MARYLAND is 11-4 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season with a combined average of 129.9 ppg scored. MARYLAND is 7-1 UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season with a combined average of 127.7 ppg going on the board. MARYLAND is 8-2 UNDER as an underdog this season with a combined average of 128.7 ppg scored. Turgeon is 7-0 UNDER  after a game forcing opponent to commit 5 or less turnovers as the coach of MARYLAND with a combined average of 127.3 ppg scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (MARYLAND) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 237-161 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

It looks like LeBron James  will play tonight for the struggling Lakers, but even with him on the floor the team does not look motivated or very fluent offensively . It must be noted the Lakers failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in 3 of their L/7 games. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is off a tenacious DD come from   behind victory vs Sacramento last time out for a win and will be in a natural letdown spot and on tired legs as they play their 5th straight road game. 

LA LAKERS are 21-5 UNDER  after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season with a combined average of 219.3 ppg going on the board.

BROOKLYN is 14-4 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored. ( Prior to those games the Nets looked tired and failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in their first two road games of this trip)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 71-31 UNDER L22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC

UCF finished sixth in the conference in scoring (72.1 points) but were first in field-goal percentage (46.3)  on 75.4 shooting from the floor behind college hoops super star Tacko Fall. I know VCU is a strong defensive side, but UCF can force anyone into a faster paced game then they like because of their ability to consistently convert and hold a lead.  Score and chase is the call here and a combined score that goes over the set total.

Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

UCF is 9-1 OVER  off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 139.3 ppg. UCF HC Rhoades is 27-9 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (VA COMMONWEALTH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), on Friday nights are 32-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA

 Wisconsin has been a defence first team all season long, but have been even more staunch defensively of late, allowing 59.6 ppg in their L/5 while scoring just 64 ppg on average. Im betting they once again force their pace on the Ducks and will drag their opponent into a ugly affair that will stay on the low side of the total. Oregon has allowed just 64.2 ppg on the road this season, and will have no problem elbowing their way through this tilt. 

WISCONSIN is 6-0 UNDER in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less  points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 114 ppg scored.

Neutral court teams where the total is 119.5 or less (OREGON) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 31-7 UNDER L22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Virginia were upset by Florida State by a  69-59  count in last week's ACC tournament semifinals. Now with a  full week to rest and prepare and very healthy Im betting they come out like their hair is on fire and pound away with all guns blazing, which all by themselves will help this combined score go over the set total. Gardner Webb in turn will do just enough damage to get us to the promised land. Note:GARDNER WEBB is 6-0 OVER  in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing a shooting pct defense of 42% or less this season with a combined average of 162.8 ppg scored

. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (GARDNER WEBB) - after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 23-4 OVER L/22 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134,1 ppg scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (VIRGINIA) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less  turnovers/game, on Friday nights are 38-7 OVER L/22 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Colgate score just 57 points in a DD loss to Syracuse in their non conferenc schedule, and Im betting they will have issues scoring here vs Tennessee. My projections estimate a total combined score in the mid 140 range, this giving us value on the under. 

COLGATE is 9-1 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 135 ppg scored.Langel is 8-0 UNDER  in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or better  as the coach of COLGATE with a combined average of 132.2 ppg scored.

TENNESSEE is 10-2 UNDER  in the first round of the NCAA tournament with a combined average of 138.5 ppg. TENNESSEE is 6-0 UNDER  after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 137 ppg. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (COLGATE) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, in March games are 66-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Kansas State can play a top tier of hoops but they will be tested by a UC Irvine team that can put points up in a hurry. In 3 of their L/5 fames thye had outputs of 110, 86, 92 points and could easily force Kansas State out of their comfort zone and into a faster paced game they would like, 

KANSAS ST is 6-0 OVER as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 155.3 ppg scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (KANSAS ST) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Friday  are 26-4 OVER L/25 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

It's no secret that Indianas successes and failures on their ability-to play a top tier brand of the hoops.  The Pacers rank 1 in ppg allowed in the NBA 24th and pace and 22nd in offence. Tonight against the explosive Warriors their D, and conservative transitional game Im betting will be on full display. INDIANA is 21-6 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 211.2 ppg. INDIANA is 23-7 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.9 ppg. 

As the Warriors prepare for the play offs Defence, has become very important as  is evident by  GOLDEN STATE going 8-0 UNDER L/8 in March games this season  and 20-8 UNDER (after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. 

The Warriors are 1-17 on the UNDER as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.

The Pacers are 0-10 L/10 UNDER as a road dog off a loss when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 69-31 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 106-53 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% long term conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - XL Center - Hartford, CT

St.Marys might of shutdown Gonzaga last time out , for  a huge 60-47 win, but Im betting they wont be able to the same thing to Villanova. Its one thing to play a tough defensive game in their own conference, against a team they were built to compete against,  but limiting this Wildcats group  will be more challenging and Im betting the Gaels will be forced to  have to open up or get completely blown off the floor. I know the Gaels are a trendy pick here by public bettors after the above mentioned upset of Gonzaga, and that their defensive play is a key to this total being this low, but all of that will go out the window, vs a Villanova side that can knock treys down at a 35%+ clip against much stiffer competition in the Big East and that brain bang you with multiple looks. 

VILLANOVA is 11-4 OVER  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 146.1 ppg. VILLANOVA is 13-4 OVER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 154.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

College Insider Tournament - First Round

These teams are trending under on a base line total that does not project properly according to a team system vs system matchup power rankings system that I use. The lines-makers know how the public perceives these types of team Totals trends and plays to public sentiment. 'Ill take a contrarian view based on my own estimations which lean to this Total being eclipsed.

FLA ATLANTIC is 10-2 OVER  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 143.9 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The Bulls put up a nice defensive effort vs Phoenix last time out in a 116-111 win and Im betting they will continue to pay attention in transition, and force the run and gun Wizards out of their comfort zone with a more precise pace. This will result in a score that remains on the low side of the total.

The Wizards are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a favorite with less than two days rest when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 201 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 11-5-1 in Wizards last 17 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.

CHICAGO is 13-4 UNDER  in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with a combined average of 214.4 ppg. CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER in home games after a non-conference game this season with a combined average of 208.4 ppg scored.The Bulls are 4-20-1 UNDER L/25 as a dog with rest off a win in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 worse than their season-to-date average with non of the games eclipsing this total.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (47% or more ) after 42+ games, in a game involving two poor rebounding teams (-3 to -5.5 reb/game) are 26-4 UNDER L/22seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

NIT - First Round

Alabama is a  team that averages nearly 72 points per game , and against this level of opponent Im projecting they will breach that total number in around the 77+ range. Meanwhile the Norfolk State Spartans are one of the top three points teams in the country from a conversion rate perspective,  shooting 39.3 percent from 3-point range over the L/22 games (184-of-468). Another important factor for a over wager here is 551 free throws and 771 attempts are the second most in the D-I era and Im projecting them to score in the mid to upper 60s which translates to a total according to my estimations of a 145.5 or more giving us value with a over wager. 

Play on the OVER 

NCAA Tournament - First Four - Univ. of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH

These teams play a controlled type of game, and if they were boxers they would be considered counter punchers. Im expecting a medium paced game especially in transition which will equate to a total combined score that remains on the low side of the total. 

NC CENTRAL is 17-6 UNDER  in all neutral court games  with a combined average of 125.6 ppg scored. NC CENTRAL in their L/25  in all tournament games have seen a combined average of 128.1 ppg scored.Moton is 8-1 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games as the coach of NC CENTRAL. with a combined average of 126.3 ppg scored.Moton is 16-4 UNDER  off a win against a conference rival as the coach of NC CENTRAL with a combined average of 128.3 ppg. 

N DAKOTA ST is 8-0 UNDER L/8as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points with a combined average of 121.5 ppg scored.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (N DAKOTA ST) - off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 24-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Buy in games with a total of 130 or over have gone under 72% of the time in th history of the NCAA tournament. Its a do or die-situation so teams have a tendency of being  conservative  and this one sets up for a closely contested lower scoring affair. 

BELMONT is 13-4 UNDER  in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 136.8 ppg scored.BELMONT is 9-1 UNDER  after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season with a combined average of 146.3 ppg scored. 

TEMPLE is 8-1 UNDER  after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 127.5 ppg scored. ( They lost their reg season finale  74-80)

Play on the  UNDER 

The Sixers took out the Milwaukee Bucks in a 130-125 offensive slugfest yesterday , and will now be in a natural letdown spot, and less than ready to run and gun vs a Charlotte side that is off a   93-75 loss at Miami on Sunday .The Hornets are 7-28 L/35  UNDER with rest off a loss in a road game in which they had more turnovers than assists wth a combined average of 190.3 ppg scored.

Im now expecting the Sixers a team that HC Brown has said needs to pay more attention to the defensive end as the play offs come closer to practice stringent defence in transition .  It must also be noted that the 76ers are 8-1 UNDER  in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average 218 ppg scored.

The Seventysixers are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with the combined average score of 205.3 ppg going on the board.

PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 UNDER  after a combined score of 245 points or more with a combined average of 205.5 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 41-14 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

NIT - First Round

 Campbell has seen 4 of their L/5 games entering the NIT go over the total, with the combined score of those tilts ringing in at 149.2 ppg. UNC Greensboro has been explosive offensively at home this season averaging 78.6 ppg and from a matchup systems power rankings system I use for totals  projections  should be ready to pour down points again, with Campbell capably chasing which Im betting results in a higher scoring game then the lines makers are expecting. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CAMPBELL) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games are 69-34 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

OVER 

The Portland Trail Blazers' starting lineup will  be missing a key cog Monday night when the Indiana Pacers come into Oregon.The Blazers will be without starting shooting guard CJ McCollum( knee injury) which will effect the flow of this game for the Blazers offensively. The guard averages 21.3 ppg .  This will in turn directly effect the total offensive output of this tilt vs a defensive minded eastern conference team in the Pacers. Note: INDIANA is 22-6 UNDER ( versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 206.4 ppg scored.INDIANA is 11-2 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 197.7 ppg scored.

Under is 6-0 in Pacers last 6 overall.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 road games.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 21-6-1 in Pacers last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 23-8 in Pacers last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 22-8 in Pacers last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 37-17 in Pacers last 54 games following a ATS win.Under is 64-30-1 in Pacers last 95 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 47-23 in Pacers last 70 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Trailblazers are 0-12 UNDER L/12 at home off a loss in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent with a combined average of 190.3 ppg scored

The Trailblazers are 4-21 UNDER L/25 as a home favorite off a loss in a road game in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 189 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

This is Chicagos fourth game in week and their on tired legs , while, this is the Suns 3rd game in 4 nights, with their last game going into OT on the road. Fatigue here at this juncture of the season, as well as past trends in matchups like this give us value with a under wager. 

The Suns are 0-8 OU L/9 at home off a game as a dog in which they had overtime with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored and  is 8-0 UNDER  versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 23-12 UNDER  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 211 ppg going on the board.The Bulls are 6-26 UNDER L/32 when the line is within 3 of pick off a road game in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 189.1 ppg scored.

NBA team (PHOENIX) - off a road win by 3 points or less, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 94-53 UNDER L/64% L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in March games and are 105-52 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Miami beat Charlotte at home Sunday, holding the Hornets to a season-low 75 points. Tonight however, on tired legs that kind of effort Im betting wont come close to happening, as the Thunder will bring out the big guns behind the 3rd ranked pace  in an effort not to play to the Heats preferred method of hoops which right now seems methodical ranking 25th in pace behind an offence that ranks 25th in offensive output.Note: Oklahoma City won the first meeting between the teams, 118-102, on Feb. 1 in Miami, and Im betting on a similar output here tonight. 

The Thunder are 12-1 OVER as a favorite off a loss as a favorite in which they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers with a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. Western Conference.Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. NBA Southeast.

Play on the OVER 

Im betting on a big time back and forth offensive battle here tonight with the total being eclipsed. Both these teams have played decent defence of late, but this will will morph out of control just because of the kind of energy that will be exerted here and the fact that after getting clobbered by Golden State 141-102 in an earlier meeting the Spurs will come out here with all guns blazing in ok coral revenge  style hoops . GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 OVER after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35% or less over the last 3 seasons which happened last time out vs Oklahoma City l, with the combined average score of those follow up games Clicking in at 236.7 ppg. The Warriors are also 9-0 L/9 OVER as a road favorite off a road win in which Stephen Curry attempted more three pointers than two pointers with a combined average of 244.8 ppg scored. 

Over is 9-3 in Spurs last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play OVER 

These are two of the top teams in the NBA , and at this time of the season, play off bound sides like this like to play a top tier brand of defence, knowing that that will be key to any successes or failures they have in a quest for a championship ring. With that said, Im recommending a under wager in this spot.  

Under is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games.Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 7-0 in Nuggets last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 12-1 in Nuggets last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 overall.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Nuggets last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Nuggets last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games following a ATS loss.

The Nuggets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 after they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 214.9 ppg scored.

DENVER is 21-10 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with the combined average score clicking in at 219 ppg. 

The Celtics are 3-21 UNDER L/24 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game with a combined average of 186.8 ppg going on the board with only 1 of the 24 games eclipsing this total. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 62-25 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.  

Play UNDER 

As the post season gets closer Utah a team that ranks 20th in ppg on offence bases its successes and failures on their ability to play top tier defence which is  what they currently doing  as they enter this tilt ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency in the NBA.  The Jazz have been particularly stingy of late as they have not allowed any of their L/4 opponents to breach the 100 point plateau with all 4 games remaining on the low side of the total. Meanwhile, Washington loves to run and gun, but if anyone can stall the Wizards it will be the Jazz, and thats what Im betting on here tonight in a tilt I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Washington.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 Monday games.Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-2 in Jazz last 11 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 12-4 in Jazz last 16 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 6-2 in Jazz last 8 games following a straight up win.

Under is 13-3 in Wizards last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.

The Wizards are 2-16 UNDER L/18 as a dog off a win in which their points increased by at least 25 from the game before with a .combined average score of 188.8 ppg scored.

The Jazz are 1-13 UNDER L/14 as a favorite with rest after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 209.9 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

 Cleveland Cavaliers know they have to do a much better job containing the Detroit Pistons' front court duo of Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond as they try to avoid being swept in the season series, and will be out looking to play a much better brand of defense, something they know Detroit is very capable of doing. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game then the linesmakers expect. Note:DETROIT is 10-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season with a combined average of 201.6 ppg. Casey is 10-0 UNDER  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 204 ppg.

The Cavaliers are 1-12 L/13 as a home dog with rest when they are off two games in which their opponent scored 10+ more points than their respective averages with a combined average of 189 ppg.

DETROIT is 25-10 UNDER  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.5 ppg. The Pistons are 2-20 on the UNDER L/22 as a road favorite with no rest off a win in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a  combined average 176.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 80-43 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

 Last season, when these teams met here the  Clippers shot 52.4 percent in a 123-120 home win over the Nets on March 4, 2018. My projections estimate a similar score here again despite of partially different lineups. 

LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 OVER  after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games this season with a combined average of 240.9 ppg.

The Clippers have the 9th fastest pace in the league and the 6th best offensive output and the 24th ranked D and will play at a speed that will force the Nets into opening up. 

LA CLIPPERS in 18  home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average score of 235.9 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS in 30  home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average score of 233.4 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 OVER  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average score of 233.3 ppg. 

The Clippers are 12-0-1 OVER as a favorite with less than two days rest off a home game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with the last 4 games in this trend from this season and last seeing a combined average of 240.5 ppg scored.

The Nets are 10-0-1 OVER on the road with no rest after they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter with the L/6 in this subset seeing substantial totals record with the combined average score of 236.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Kings are coming off a 1-3 Eastern swing that ended with three straight losses and will highly likely still be on tired legs as they get reacquainted with being at home again. I see theKings being a little bit more conservative in their approach here, and for the Bulls who rank 20th in pace to be in no hurry to rush the explosive Kings. 

Kings smacked the Bulls by a  108-89 in Chicago in December and Im betting that type of winning formula could be implemented by the Kings here again tonight vs a light scoring opponent averaging just 105 ppg on the season for a 29th offensive efficiency ranking. 

The Kings are 0-16 /16 UNDER as a favorite with rest facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored.The Kings are 0-13 L/13 UNDER as a home favorite with rest facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score of 204.3 ppg scored.

The Bulls are 4-22 UNDER L/26 as a road dog with rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 196.3 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 47-18 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The last time these teams met on Detroit on March 3rd they won 112-107 in overtime . Im betting on this game being played at a similar speed this time around and for strong efforts D by both sides, to once again be key to this total staying under in what Im hoping is a regulation tilt. 

DETROIT is 11-2 UNDER when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 202.6 ppg scored. he Pistons are 0-9 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a win after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of 196.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 94-47 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Sunbelt Conference Tournament - Championship Game - New Orleans, LA

According to my projections this tilt sets up to be a real battle in the trenches which Im betting directly effects the offensive output of this tilt. 

GEORGIA ST is 7-0 UNDER  as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons.

GEORGIA ST is 12-3 UNDER  in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

TX-ARLINGTON is 14-3 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

GEORGIA ST is 15-4 UNDER  in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or better  of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. 

CBBNeutral court teams against the total (TX-ARLINGTON) - excellent FT shooting team (73% or better ) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ game are 107-52 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Miami leads the Orlando Magic and Charlotte by just one game in the Eastern Conference playoff standings - with the No. 8 seed likely to face the Bucks in the first round of the postseason. so this is an important game with post season implications, and will be played very physically, which will reflect on the scoreboard in what will be a muted effort according to my projections. Miami beat Charlotte 91-84 when they played on March 6th and similar type game is not out of the question.

The Heat are 1-13-1 on the UNDER with rest after playing as a home dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 197.5 ppg scored.The Heat are 0-10-1 on the UNDER with less than two days rest off a loss as a dog in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP with a combined average of 184.8 ppg scored.

CHARLOTTE is 14-4 UNDER  in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 22-7 UNDER  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting this SEC championship game will be alot more physical  and defensively conservative  than what the lines-makers total is projecting, because both sides are on tired legs with this now being their 3rd game in 5 days . The public expects two explosive offensive teams to go head to head in a high octane event, but Im betting on chess like match that results in a combined score in the 142-144  range, thus giving us value on a slightly bloated line. 

Play UNDER 

Two western conference teams  off games last night and on energy deficient legs and , jockeying for post season positions , Im betting will take part in a hard fought physical game this evening which will see the combined score stay on the low side the total. 

The Spurs have gone under in 7 of the L/8 games. 

SAN ANTONIO is 24-12 UNDER L/36 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.9 ppg scored.The Spurs are 1-14-1 UNDER L/15 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a win as a home favorite when playing on Saturday with no rest with a combined average of 185 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 UNDER  in home games on Saturday games this season with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. The Spurs are 0-10 UNDER L/10 with no rest off a home game in which they shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 192.2 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 33-14 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 210.2 ppg scored. The Trailblazers are 4-21-1 OU (when the line is within 3 of pick after a game with 8+ lead changes with a combined average of 207.8 ppg scored.The Trailblazers are 0-9 UNDER on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 203.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 59-20 UNDER L22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Cavaliers are allowing more than 114 ppg  on 49% shooting this season on the road and look ready to be taken advantage of again tonight in Dallas as they have allowed around a 50% FG conversion rate to competitors in a recent 5 game span. Meanwhile, I expect the Cavs behind Kevin Love to answer back offensively vs a host in Dallas that has allowed 113.6 ppg in their L/5 with teams clicking in with a 48+ FG conversion rate. Everything points to this matchup featuring a high scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

The Mavericks are 11-0 OVER L/11 after they had fewer than 10 turnovers in a previous game with a combined average of 234.8 ppg scored.

The Cavaliers are 16-3-1 OU with rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 219 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 58-32 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

Memphis is just playing out their season, and a lot of younger players are seeing floor time, and as result flow has been off. Meanwhile, Washington  is off playing last night and are on tired legs and will not be prepared to un and gun but rather play solid defensive ball as they chase theMiami Heat fro a final play off spot. With that said, Im betting on a combined score that stays on the low side the total.

Bickerstaff is 10-1 UNDER  after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games in all games he has coached

MEMPHIS is 26-7 UNDER after playing a road game this season and 19-4 UNDER L/22 off a road loss this season with a combined average of 201.7 ppg scored. The Grizzlies are 0-10 UNDER on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss in a road game with a combined average of 188 ppg scored. The Grizzlies are 0-9-1 UNDER on the road off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 202.4 ppg scored. 

MEMPHIS is 38-21 UNDER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 205.5 ppg.

The Wizards are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a home game after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 60-24 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The last time these teams played this season Davidson came away with a 54-53 win. Now in attempt to duplicate that last effort I expect St.Louis to try to slow this game down to a grind, as they try to take away Davidsons offensive flow, much like thye did vs St.Joes last time out allowing just 55 points .Im betting Davidson behind a solid defence of their own will comply with a physical stance in  what will be a game of attrition with very little scoring. Davidson has kept 3 of their L/4 opponents to under 60 points or less.

Play UNDER

Chicago has been slumping of late losing 5 of their L/6 but  is expected to have leading scorer Zach LaVine back against the Clippers which Im betting significantly increases their ability to put points up on the board tonight in a tilt I have pegged to go over the set total. Note: The Clippers are ranked 6th in offensive output in the league averaging 114.4 ppg and at home have average more than 117 ppg, behind the 9th ranked pace and tonight vs a Chicago team ranked 25th in Defensive efficiency  Im betting the explosive Clippers will do a great deal of offensive damage again. The Bulls have allowed more than 115 ppg in their L/5 tilts overall as their defence remains their Achilles heel and I look for them to chase and score with reckless abandon here with LaVine back in the lineup.  Note: Clippers are ranked 23rd in D in the league and have allowed more than 115 ppg in their L/5 overall. There will not chants of DEFENCE, DEFENCE , DEFENCE in this one. 

LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 OVER in home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games this season have seen a combine score of 235.7 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after allowing 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 225 points or more are 109-56 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 117-63 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

 Big Ten Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Chicago, IL  

Im expecting a very physical Big 10 affair that stays on the low side of the Total. 

WISCONSIN is 9-2 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season with a combined average odf123 pig scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (WISCONSIN) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games, on Friday games are 32-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Wisconsin/ Nebraska UNDER

The Magic played a defensive minded game last night and ended up on the short end of a 100-90 defeat at the hands of the Washington Wizards. The Magic now even more desperate for wins as they pursue a play off spot should be ready to let loose here and leave nothing to chance while, the now capable Cavs behind Kevin Love should fire back in unison. This Im betting leads to a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers have projected. 

The Magic are 9-0 OVER  with no rest facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average score of 233.5 ppg scored.

The Cavaliers are 14-1 OVER off a road game in which they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter with a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 13-4 OVER off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 223.3 ppg scored. The Cavaliers are 27-7-1 OVER L/35 with rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 224.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 39-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Atlantic Ten Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Brooklyn, NY

Both these teams have averaged under 70 points in offensive output this season, and both exhibit long stretches of below average FG conversion rates. With that being an early start game, Im betting those outputs will be exasperated and exaggerated in a physical low energy environment  that will see this game  stay under the set total.

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (RHODE ISLAND) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential) are 30-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 129.1 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Pac 12 Conference Tournament - First Round - Las Vegas, NV

California enters this game playing possibly their best hoops of the season, and have held their last two opponents 69, and 59 point outputs. In a surprising road victory vs the Buffs back in January the former Bad News Bears sprung the 68-59 upset and now have a success-full defensive blue print that should see this game played similarly to the first one and a total score that is also similar.  

COLORADO is 8-0 UNDER after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite this season with a combined average of 135 ppg scored.   

CALIFORNIA is 12-1 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 season with a combined average of 131.8 ppg going on the board.

 CALIFORNIA is 10-1 UNDER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 131.1 ppg scored.

 CALIFORNIA is 12-3 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 134.7 ppg scored.

CALIFORNIA is 8-0 UNDER in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 128.7 ppg going on the board and 6-0 UNDER versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  135 ppg scored.

642 Colorado/ California UNDER

Colonial Conference Tournament - Championship Game - Charleston, SC

Hofstra is a prolific offensive teams averaging more than 83 ppg and wont be stopped here as Northeastern will have to open up something they are capable of doing as they average 78.3 ppg in conference action this season. 

HOFSTRA  8 games  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season a combined average of 152.1 ppg scored.HOFSTRA is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games this season with a combined average of 165.5 ppg scored . 

Play OVER 

 ACC Conference Tournament - First Round - Charlotte, NC

Georgia Tech enters todays game against Notre Dame off two consecutive wins vs Boston College (81-78 in overtime at home) and NC State (63-61 on the road) . In an attempt to make of  offense more productive, Georgia Tech returned to a one-post starting alignment for its last seven games, with James Banks III starting in the middle with four perimeter players. It has  invigorated and buoyed the Yellow Jackets’ to their  four highest point totals since Jan. 12 and three of its best shooting efforts since Jan. 22. Tech has averaged 64.0 points, hit 43.7 percent of hits field goals and 34.3 percent of its three-point shots in its last seven games, compared to 53.9 points, 38.2 percent from the floor and 23.8 percent on threes in the previous eight games and I expect them to push the pace again and make Notre Dame come out of their shell and put points on the board as well. 

Over is 4-1 in Yellow Jackets last 5 neutral site games.

GEORGIA TECH is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 142.7 ppg.

GEORGIA TECH L/19 games when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 3 seasons . as seen a combined average score of 133.6 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (NOTRE DAME) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 40-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CBBNeutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (GEORGIA TECH) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a for 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

After struggling in February the Boston Celtics are back to playing a top tier brand of hoops, that centers around playing a strong brand of defensive basketball . The Celtics currently 4th   in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency in the NBA. Tonight against a Clippers team that they have revenge on board against the Clippers for uncharacteristically ugly loss at home by a 123-112 count  in feb when they were slumping, Im now betting on them playing a lock down style of defense that will directly effect the overall offensive ouptut of this tilt. 

BOSTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 201.1 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 13-2 UNDER  in road games versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.5 ppg scored.BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this seasonwith a combined average of 215.6 ppg going on the board.The Celtics are 7-34-2 OU UNDER  on the road with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points with a combined average score of 185.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

The Clippers are 0-12 UNDER with more than one day of rest off a win as a favorite in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 195.2 ppg going on the board.

LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 UNDER L/19  in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off a home win are 36-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettor with a combined average score of 204.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

As Houston starts gearing up for the play offs, they are beginning to play lock down defence, which has been evident in their L/3 recent wins where they held Toronto, Dallas, and Philadelphia all under 95 points or less. Charlotte in their current form are alos a team the Rockets can easily shut down, and after playing last night wont be in the mood to run and gun anyway, which Im betting aids this game in staying under the set total. 

CHARLOTTE is 8-1 UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent this season and is s 15-4 UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. *Houston beat them 118-113 on Feb 27th in Charlotte. The Hornets are 0-13 UNDER L/13 on the road with rest off a road game when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average score of 185.5 ppg scored.

The Rockets are 0-10 L/10 UNDER at home with no rest after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game with a combine average of 193.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 49-14 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Detroit won 103-100 win in its season opener on Oct. 17, and Brooklyn claimed a 120-119 overtime victory on Oct. 31. Note: DETROIT is 10-2 UNDER   in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 207.7 ppg scored.

These teams current form is different than it was back then, and according to my new projections this game should be played closer to the way the first game was played. With Detroit on tired legs having played yesterday, and this their 3rd game in 4 nights Im betting this Motown crew wont have enough energy to run and gun with the sometimes explosive Nets, and instead will rely on a more conservative defensive brand of basketball, something HC Casey has been unhappy with lately despite of getting victories. DETROIT is 12-3 UNDER  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season and is  8-1 UNDER  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season and 11-1 UNDER after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 3 seasons. 

Recently Brooklyn has seen 4 straight games stay under the total, so their trending to the low side, and are 13-4 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season which just happened. 

Under is 28-10-1 in Pistons last 39 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 11-4 in Pistons last 15 road games.Under is 27-12-1 in Pistons last 40 Monday games.Under is 32-15-4 in Pistons last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 4-0 in Nets last 4 overall.Under is 8-1 in Nets last 9 Monday games.Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 49-13 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Im betting the Suns a team on a 3 game win streak, and off allowing their last opponent to score under 100 points will try to keep the blueprint of playing a tighter brand of defensive ball continue to take its course. Meanwhile, Portland off a run and gun gruelling OT game vs the Thunder last time out will have a bit of a reversion, which Im betting helps this combined score say under the Total. 

PHOENIX in 37 games when playing against a team with a winning record this season has seen a combined average score of 221.1 ppg. PHOENIX in 44 games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season have seen a combined average score of 223.2 ppg scored. 

The Trailblazers are 0-14-1 UNDER as a home favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 worse than their season-to-date average of 193.7 ppg going on the board. The Suns are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 as a dog off a 10+ win as a favorite when the line is at least 12 points higher than their last game. 

None of the 5 most recent games in this series dating back to last season have eclipsed this totals number that is being offered. 

Play UNDER 

Indiana has one chance to stay competitive vs an explosive Milwaukee team here on the road and that is via a conservative style of defensive play. Thats what Im betting they try to implement , which will result in a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers are expecting. ( More analysis to come thank you for your patience)

INDIANA is 25-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 201.3 ppg scored.INDIANA is 17-5 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 211,2 ppg scored. INDIANA is 13-4 UNDER  in March games over the last 2  seasons with a combined average of 200.8 ppg. McMillan is 40-19 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game as the coach of INDIANA with a combined average score of 210.9 ppg scored. The Pacers are 1-13 UNDER L/13 as a road dog after they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 195.6 ppg scored.

The Bucks are 1-13 UNDER L/14 as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which they shot under 40% from the field with a combined average of 184.8 ppg going on the board.The Bucks are 2-15-1 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite after a game that was tied 5+ times ( which happened vs Phoenix last time out) with the combined average score of those games clicking in at 189.8 ppg.

Play UNDER 

Metro Atlantic Conference Tournament - First Round - Albany, NY

The last time these teams played back in late Feb they combined for a 129 points, but here with a lot more to play for Im betting this matchup will not be played as loosely as that tilt and more physical play will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total. 

FAIRFIELD is 7-1 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season after 15+games this season with a combined average of 115.5 ppg. 
MANHATTAN is 9-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games this season with a combined average score of 114.9 ppg scored. MANHATTAN is 10-0 UNDER in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons. MANHATTAN is 9-0 UNDER in all tournament games over the last 2 season


Neutral court teams against the total (MANHATTAN) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record. are 31-6 UNDER L/22 season for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the under.


Manhattan /Fairfield UNDER

These teams have. along history of playing low scoring defensive affairs with 10 of the L/11 games going under the set total with the L/5 here in Central Florida all going under the set Total. Considering both teams have shut down defences there is no reason to believe that this game will also be fairly low scoring and stay under the number. 

UCF is 8-1 UNDER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 111.3 ppg scored.UCF is 15-4 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or better ) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 124.1 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42%  or less after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 120.3 ppg scored. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (CINCINNATI) - after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 34-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

610 Central Florida /Cincinnati UNDER

These teams have absolutely nothing to play for other than stacking up personal stats, and Im betting it will be played wide open and loose as a result of this games lack of importance. When these played back in December of this season they combined for 238 points and a similar type output is not out of the question in this spot according to my projections. 

NYK ranks 27th in the league in defensive rating, while Phoenix ranks 29th in defensive rating. 

The Knicks are 13-0-1 OU  as a dog with rest off a loss in a road game when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points with the combined average score of those tilts clicking in at 239.1 ppg. ( NYK has allowed 125,115,128 points in their L3 games)

Play OVER 

Indiana enters this game ranked 2nd in both ppg allowed and defensive efficiency and 24th in pace. On offence they rank 22nd , which makes it obvious to me that they base all their successes and failures on their ability to play a strong transitional game that focuses on top tier defensive play. The Pacers have gotten away from that lately and have coincindetly lost 3 of their L/4, and Im betting a more concerted defensive effort here in an attempt to right tehir ship. Meanwhile, the visiting Chicago Bulls rank 28th in offense , behind the 21st ranked pace,  and despite of back to back freewheeling affairs against a no defense allowed  Atlanta team in their last two outings, should now revert back to their norm here in a division game I have pegged to be competitive .  

The Pacers are 2-20-1 UNDER as a home 8+ favorite with rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game and have gone under12 straight times overall under these perimeters with the average combined score of the 23 games clicking in at 181.5 ppg . 

The Bulls are 3-21-1 L/25 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range with the combined average of 187 ppg scored. 

INDIANA is 16-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season and is 15-2 UNDER in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 199 ppg going on the score board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 27-6 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the bind. 

Play UNDER 

NYK HC Fizdale is 13-3 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. Im betting he once again implement a more methodical game plan here against a Kings side that loves to run and gun! 

SACRAMENTO is 24-10 UNDER as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207.9 ppg. SACRAMENTO is 54-30 UNDER when the total is 220 to 230 with a combined average of 219.1 ppg.

NYK HC Fizdale is 13-3 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. 

SACRAMENTO is 15-6 UNDER in non-conference games this season with a combined avrage fo 223.3 ppg going on the board.

NEW YORK is 11-3 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or less assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with . combined average of 211.4  ppg going on the board .

The Kings are 0-14 on the UNDER as a rested favorite when they are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50 with a combined average of 203.6 ppg scored.

The Knicks are 0-10-1 OU  on the road with less than two days rest off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc with at least 10 attempts with a combined average of 189 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in March game are 183-111 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

The Owls are last in the ASUN averaging 63.2 PPG, with my projections estimating a near 10 point drop off vs Lipscomb. The Owls dont have any chance here of competing against this explosive opponent unless they slow this tilt down to a crawl which Im betting effects the combined score to the low side of he offered number. 

Play on the UNDER 

The host team Brooklyn in this matchup  is struggling overall and are allowing 121.7 points and 49.3 percent shooting during a recent 3 game run. Meanwhile, the visiting  Mavericks' are  allowing 114.9 points on 47.2 percent shooting in the last seven games overall. Both sides are exhibiting poor defensive abilities, and Im betting on this trend continuing here this evening.

The Mavericks are 9-0 OVER L/9 on the road off a loss in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with the combined average score of 228.1 ppg scored. 

 The Nets are 9-0 OVER L/9 with rest after they had less than 40% of the total rebounds  with the combined score of 234.3 ppg.

Play OVER 

I expect a young athletic Magic frontline that includes Aaron Gordon (25), Jonathan Isaac (21) and Nikola Vucevic (28) to come at the last place ranked D in the league ,Cleveland with both barrels loaded as they continue to push behind the momentum of a big road win last night in Indiana as underdogs. I expect for Cleveland to fire back with some explosive fireworks of their own in chase mode and give a score that eclipses this number. 

Note: Orlando has 18 underdog wins this season, and the average combined score of their followup tilt clicks in at 225.1 ppg.

The Magic are 11-0 OVER off a win as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board which was the case last night in their wn vs Indiana.The Magic are 13-1 OVER  off a win as a dog with a combined average of 228.3 ppg scored.

NBA team (CLEVELAND) - off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival, a struggling  team (25% or less wins) playing a team with a losing record are 45-19 OVER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Trail Blazers defeated the Raptors 128-122 in Portland on Dec. 14 and Im betting on a similar offensive output by both teams here tonight in TO. The Raptors are averaging more than 115 ppg at home this season, and the Blazers are averaging 113.5 ppg overall on offence. In Toronto's last five game they have seen a combined average score of more than 232 ppg go on the board, while Portland has scored more than 218 ppg on offence in their L/5 , and Im betting they wil force the Raps explosive attack to gear up in response , which will result in a high scoring slugfest according to my projections. 

The Trailblazers are 11-0 OU  L/11 with rest off a win in a road game in which their opponent shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts.

Play OVER 

The last time these teams played  on Feb 23 Brooklyn took out Charlotte as road dogs by a 117-115 count, but  in the past when the Hornets are looking for revenge they have shown a propensity to be more methodical in their approach . Note: The Hornets are 1-20 OV/UNDER  on the road with rest when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 198.8 ppg scored. Also the Hornets are 0-12 OU on the road with rest off a loss when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home which was the case in a loss the Rockets last time out in a ugly defensive display allowing 118 points and blowing a lead. This will make the Hornets even more concentrated on playing better defence here tonight. Meanwhile, the Nets are 0-13 OU with rest off a loss as a favorite in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint which was the situation vs Washington when they allowed 125 points in a back forth event and Im betting they will also be more diligent defensively in rebound mode. The Nets are also  0-13 OU L/13 as a home favorite off a loss in which they shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts with a combined average of 187.5 ppg scored. With both teams needing better defensive play Im betting on a lower scoring output than the linesmakers expect.

CHARLOTTE is 8-0 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent this season with the combined average score of 207.8 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 15-3 UNDER  in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.8 ppg going on the board. 

NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHARLOTTE) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in March games are 99-48 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind!

Play UNDER

The Golden Stare Warriors took part in a hard fought 126-125 loss last night vs the Miami Heat  and will enter todays game on tired legs. Now Im betting they will revert to a more defensive stance here tonight vs the Orlando Magic, because of their need to correct their  defensive lapses and their inability to go full tilt after playing last night .HC Kerr is 21-9 UNDER  in road games off a road loss as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 214 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Orlando ranks 25th in offensive output and  26th in pace and is usually methodical in their approach and tonight against a dangerous opponent could even be more conservative thus effecting the output of both sides.The Magic are 0-14 UNDER  at home off a loss when they lost at least three straight vs their opponent.( they lost in NY last time out and have lost 5 straight vs the Warriors) None of the 14 games came even close to this total with the highest output coming in 1t 217 combined points with the average combined score clicking in at 200 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Louisville has been struggling to score of late, but this is a good opportunity to get some posiitve offensive production as Boston is a team that has allowed 72.1 ppg at home this season. The Cardinal beat the Eagles 80-70 back on the Jan 16 this of this season, and now Im expecting a similar offensive output in the rematch. 

BOSTON COLLEGE is 16-3 OVER  revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons and is 11-1 OVER  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON COLLEGE is 17-4 OVER as a home underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons. 

LOUISVILLE is 6-0 OVER in road games after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CBB home teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 104-61 OVER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

Boston Im betting will do what they  do best and that is play top tier defence in an effort to slow the high powered Raptors offence down. This has been Boston modus operandi for a while now when playing a road  against explosive sides like the Raptors. Note: BOSTON is 13-4 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 204.4 ppg scored.

The Celtics own the 5th ranked ppg allowed and and defensive efficiency, along with the a 19th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Raptors own the 7th ranked defensive efficiency and must not be underestimated in their ability to be physical . 

This tilt has the makings of gruelling defensive post season style affair that stays below the offered Total. 

The Raptors are 0-10 UNDER with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 198 ppg scored.The Raptors are 7-32-1 UNDER  ( as a favorite with rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 196.7 ppg scored. 

The Celtics are 0-8-1 UNDER as a road dog off a loss as a favorite in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 188.2 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

My own projections make this offered Total slightly bloated as my number is closer to 229. I know its just a few points, but from system vs system matchup chart I use the numbers suggest   a combined score in the vicinity of 225 via a variable chart that is also in place, thus giving us added value to the under. Note: CHARLOTTE is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. ( Charlotte is ranked 20th in pace and 18th in ppg scored and can only compete by being more physical, which will effect overall scoring output) 

The Warriors are 0-11 UNDER  on the road with rest off a loss when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals with the average combined score clicking in at 182.1 ppg . 

The Hornets are 0-11 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a loss in which they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter with a average combined score of 195.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

This is going to be a behemoth and very physical conference  battle involving two stop tier defensive teams that dont like each other very much. The Spartans  love the run and gun out of transition , but Michigan is a team built to slow the most explosive sides in the nation down. With all the Spartans injuries, I doubt they will be is fluid as usual and instead be hell bent on delivering heavy elbows in the paint and trying to find a way to win by making life difficult for Teske and drawing him into foul trouble. This Im betting will see a much lower scoring tilt than then the linesmakers and public expect. 

MICHIGAN ST is 9-0 UNDER  off 2 straight wins against conference rivals this seasonMICHIGAN is 9-1 UNDER  when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season.MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games this season.

CBB Road teams against the total (MICHIGAN ST) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or more) are 55-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Toronto Raptors are playing in top tier form at the moment and have won 7 straight games, and will be ramped up to deliver payback to a Orlando team that beat them by a surprising 116-87 count back in December . The Magic ,  however, won't be easily intimidated  as they have also been playing decent ball winning 5 of their L/6. What Im betting on here today is for the Raptors despite of the early start to be wide awake and to come out here running and gunning and to pour down points in revenge mode against the Magic and for the young men from Central Florida to fire back in chase mode in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. TORONTO is 11-3 OVER revenging a loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored.

The Raptors are 8-0 OVER after a game as a home favorite in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers with a combined average of 233 ppg scored which was the case last time out vs San Antonio.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 39-11 OVER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 224 ppg going on the score board.

Play OVER 

This is the second and final regular-season meeting between the teams. Villanova won 85-75 on its home court Jan. 18 and Im expecting a out put of at least 142 points here according to my projections , which is a full 6 points higher than this offered Total which makes for a strong value call here to the OVER. Note: Four of the L/5 meetings here at Xavier have gone OVER.

The OVER is 5-1 in Musketeers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 39-18 in Musketeers last 57 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

XAVIER is 18-5 OVER L/23 in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games with a combined average score of 153.3 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

Over the last two games, Thunder star Westbrook is averaging 43.5 points, is shooting 56 percent from the floor, and has a combined 10 made 3-pointers and Im betting his team feeds off that energy tonight against the run and gun Kings in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Note: Sacramento runs at the 3rd fastest pace in the league and owns the 27th ranked defence. Meanwhile, the Thunder own the 2nd ranked pace , and the leagues 3rd best offensive output . This total might seem high , but the the speed these teams play and the way they can pour down points Im betting the Total gets eclipsed. 

Oklahoma City beat the Kings on the road this season by a 132-111 count. Im expecting Thunder to explode for close to the same amount this time around and for the Kings to eclipse their previous out put. 

SACRAMENTO is 12-1 OVER  as a road underdog on the opening line of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  

The Thunder are 14-1-1 OVER off a win as a home favorite in which their points increased by at least 25 from the game before.The Kings are 23-5-2 OVER as a dog with rest after a game as a road dog in which out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits.

Play OVER 

When these teams met back on Jan 19, they took part in a high scoring affair, that resulted in a 91-83 output of 174 points. Im betting on a similar back forth high scoring affair here today that eclipses this Total.  

W CAROLINA is 9-1 OVER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games with a combined average of 169.5 pig scored with a combined average of 162.9 ppp going on the board.

VMI is 13-3 OVER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season.

VMI is 8-0 OVER  after playing 4 consecutive games as an underdog this season with a combined average of 166.6 ppg scored.

CBB Road teams against the total (VMI) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games are 100-62 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

The Heat base all their successes and failures on their ability to play gritty shutdown defence, and tonight against the explosive Philadelphia 76ers Im expecting more of the same action. With Philadelphia expected to play without the injured Joel Embiid ( knee) Im betting the Sixers ability flow freely in offence will also be hindered. This above combination has a high probability of making for a lower scoring game than the linesmkaers are expecting and thus Im recommending a under wager here . 

The Heat rank third in the league in points per game allowed (105.7 ppg) and 27th in point scored ( 105.1 ppg). MIAMIs L/20  road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 203.1 ppg scored.

Brown is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 consecutive division games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. (This occurred just before the all star break)

The Heat are 0-19  L/19 UNDER as a road dog with rest off a win as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score 189.9 ppg scored. Non of the 19 games saw more than 213 combined points scored.

The 76er are 0-14 UNDER  off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 193.8 ppg scored. None of the 14 games eclipsed this total.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 36-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a win against a division rival are 35-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the  UNDER 

My projections have made this total closer to 149.5 -150 this according to my estimates we have value on this offered totals number. Both these teams are lighting it up offensively of late, and nothing Im betting will change tonight.

Coll of Charleston has scored 83 or more points in 4 straight games. William Mary has scored 84 or more points in 3 of their L/4 overall. 

WM & MARY is 8-0 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 180.1 ppg scored.WM & MARY is 9-0 OVER in home games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 173.3 ppg scored.

WM & MARY is 12-0 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with. combined average of 175 ppg scored.WM & MARY is 14-2 OVER  in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14   or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 172.5 ppg scored. 

COLL OF CHARLESTON is 12-3 OVER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 157.6 ppg going on the score board. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (COLL OF CHARLESTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games are 68-33 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER