Washington was a team we wrote off right around the All-Star break.  The Wizards were in free-fall as they lost 11 of 13 games during that stretch.  But Washington has turned things around lately, and they are playing good basketball just as they did early in the season.  The Wizards come into tonight’s game on a 5-game winning streak, and they are 6-1 over their last seven games and 7-2 over their last nine games.  Washington has been terrific on both ends of the court over their last five games.  The Wizards have a +14.8 point differential in those games as their offense has averaged 101.6 points per game on 51.4% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from three-point land.  Washington’s defense has held their opponents to just 86.8 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 22.7% shooting from three-point land.  

Los Angeles is playing up and down basketball right now.  The Clippers are just 4-4 over their last eight games, and they are in a performance pattern of two losses, then two wins, then two losses, then two wins over those eight games.  Los Angeles’ defense is in poor current form as they’ve allowed 100 points or more in four of their last five games.  Over their last five games, Los Angeles has allowed 106.8 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Clippers also have a -0.4 point differential over their last five games, so they are laying too many points in this game, especially against a team that is playing outstanding basketball.  Washington is in terrific current form, so we’ll take the points with the Wizards in this game on Friday night.         

9* Play WIZARDS (+).

Washington was a team we wrote off right around the All-Star break.  The Wizards were in free-fall as they lost 11 of 13 games during that stretch.  But Washington has turned things around lately, and they are playing good basketball just as they did early in the season.  The Wizards come into tonight’s game on a 4-game winning streak, and they are 5-1 over their last six games and 6-2 over their last eight games.  Washington has been terrific on both ends of the court over their last five games.  The Wizards have a +12.8 point differential in those games as their offense has averaged 101 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  Washington’s defense has held their opponents to just 88.2 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field and 28.7% shooting from three-point land.  

Utah is also playing good basketball right now.  The Jazz come into tonight’s game on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 9-1 over their last ten games.  However, the Jazz have feasted on the worst teams in the league as their recent wins have come against the likes of the Sixers, Knicks, Nuggets, and Pistons.  Utah is taking a major step-up in class for this game, and they are laying way too many points into a team that is simply better than they are.  The Jazz have relied on their defense to win games this season, but they are coming off a strong offensive game, so we expect regression tonight.  Utah scored 94 points in their last game while hitting a robust 62.5% (15-24) from three-point land.  The Jazz are a young scrappy team, but this is not a good spot for them, especially since they are laying points.  Washington is in terrific current form, so we’ll take the points with the Wizards in this game on Wednesday night.         

9* Play WIZARDS (+).

Portland comes into tonight’s game in Washington on a 3-game winning streak, and they’ve won eight of their last nine games overall.  With the Blazers catching points in this game, they look like an attractive underdog.  However, this is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Portland, and that makes this a prime spot to go against them.  Portland’s offense was tremendous in their last two games as they scored 231 total points.  The Blazers shot 54.8% (91-166) from the field and 48% (24-50) from three-point land.  Portland also hit 75.8% (25-33) from the free throw line.  The Blazers played back-to-back perfect games, and it’s very likely they will regress sharply in tonight’s game, especially since they are in a bad scheduling spot.  Portland is playing on a back-to-back road set while also playing their third game in four nights.  This is just a terrible spot, and there’s reason to expect less than their best effort. 

Washington was a team we wrote off right around the All-Star break.  The Wizards were in free-fall as they lost 11 of 13 games during that stretch.  But Washington has turned things around lately, and they are playing good basketball just as they did early in the season.  The Wizards also come into tonight’s game on a 3-game winning streak, and they are 4-1 over their last five games and 5-2 over their last seven games.  Washington has been terrific on both ends of the court over their last five games.  The Wizards have a +11.6 point differential in those games as their offense has averaged 99.8 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field while their defense has held their opponents to just 88.2 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.  Washington is in good current form, and since they are catching Portland at the perfect time, we’ll lay the short price with the Wizards in this game on Monday night.         

10* Play WIZARDS (-).

Boston has a better record than expected this season; the Celtics come into tonight’s game at 28-36.  But Boston tends to get blown out when on the road against a solid defensive team.  The Celtics are a team that needs to play at a quick pace while scoring easy baskets in transition to be at their best.  When unable to play their preferred style, their offense really struggles, especially on the road.  In road games in which they’ve been held to less than 100 points, Boston has lost 13 times this season.  Ten of those thirteen losses have come by 9 points or more with their average loss coming by 11.8 points per game.  Boston played at home last night, and they needed to out-score Orlando 29-16 in the fourth quarter to win that game 95-88.  Now they must take to the road on a back-to-back set while also playing their third game in four nights.  We expect the Celtics’ offense to struggle, especially since the Pacers’ defense has held their last seven opponents to 96 points or less in regulation time.

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS out of the break.  Indiana’s defense is in tremendous current form as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 88.2 points per game on 37.8% shooting from the field and 25.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Pacers are playing just their third game over the last seven nights, so they are a fresh team, and simply much better than Boston.  We’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this game on Saturday night.   

10* Play PACERS (-).

Milwaukee has a much better record than expected this season; the Bucks come into tonight’s game at 34-30.  Milwaukee is a young team that caught many opponents off guard this season, and the majority of their wins came earlier in the season.  The Bucks are a known commodity now, and they can’t sneak up on teams now.  Milwaukee is just 3-7 over their last ten games with their three wins coming over hapless teams like the Sixers and Magic while their other win came over the free-falling Washington Wizards.  The Bucks beat Orlando at home last night, but they needed to rally late just to win that game 97-91.  Milwaukee will now take to the road and play on a back-to-back set while also playing their third game in four nights.  The Bucks have been terrible on the road lately, losing six consecutive away games with those losses coming by an average of 9.5 points per game.  Milwaukee’s road struggles will continue tonight in Indiana against one of the hottest teams in the NBA.     

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS out of the break.  Indiana’s defense is in tremendous current form as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 82.4 points per game on 37% shooting from the field and 24.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Pacers are playing just their second game over the last five nights, so they are a fresh team, and simply much better than Milwaukee.  We’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play PACERS (-).

Orlando has a better record than expected this season; the Magic come into tonight’s game at 21-43.  But the majority of their wins have come against teams that are worse than they are, and when on the road against a solid defensive team, the Magic tend to get blown out.  Orlando is a team that needs to play at a quick pace while scoring easy baskets in transition to be at their best.  When unable to play their preferred style, their offense really struggles, especially on the road.  In road games in which they’ve been held to less than 100 points, Orlando is just 4-18 SU this season, including 0-10 their last ten times.  Twelve of those losses have come by 8 points or more with their average loss coming by 12.2 points per game.  Their four wins have come against the Sixers, Knicks, Suns, and Jazz.  The Magic were held to just 83 points in their last visit to Indiana, and they lost that game by 15 points.  We expect a similar outcome tonight, especially since the Pacers’ defense has held their last five opponents to 86 points or less.           

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS out of the break.  Indiana’s defense is in tremendous current form as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 82.4 points per game on 36.8% shooting from the field and 26.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Pacers have had two full days off, so they are a fresh team, and simply much better than Orlando.  We’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this game on Tuesday night.   

10* Play PACERS (-).

New York has been a complete mess this season.  The Knicks come into this game with an awful 12-49 SU record, including a pathetic 4-25 SU record on the road.  New York’s transition to the triangle offense was a wreck from the beginning, and their inability to score consistently has put enormous pressure on their poor defense.  That combination has led to many blowout losses, and we expect another double-digit defeat tonight in Denver.  Three of New York’s last four road losses have come by 23, 21, and 14 points.  The Knicks will also be flat for this game after they put everything they had into their last home game against the Pacers on Saturday night.  New York actually led that game 73-67 with just over 8 minutes left to play, and the game was tied with 3 minutes left before they ended up losing 92-86.  The Knicks are in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 106.8 points per game while only scoring 95.6 points per game over their last five games.  On the road this season, New York is giving up 103.7 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.

Denver’s season has also been a dysfunctional one, and at the All-Star break, the team appeared to be tanking the rest of the season.  They made some trades with an eye towards the future, and the remaining players were simply going thru the motions.  But head coach Brian Shaw was then fired, and since then, the Nuggets have been a much different team.  Interim head coach Melvin Hunt has the team playing good basketball right now; Denver is 2-2 under his leadership.  Their last two losses came against the Spurs and Rockets with the latter being their fourth game in five nights.  “I’m excited about the group that’s in there,” Hunt said.  “When I look in their eyes, I see pros.  I see guys that are willing to give what they have.  I felt genuinely good about who they are as men, and as players.  There’s a lot of integrity.  They fight hard, and I respect them for that.”  Denver is a different team under Hunt, and against the lowly Knicks, we expect a peak performance by the Nuggets.  We’ll lay the points with Denver in this home game on Monday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Toronto has been floundering since the All-Star break.  The Raptors are just 2-7 over their last nine games with one of those wins coming over the worst team in the NBA, the Philadelphia 76ers.  Toronto’s losses have been ugly with the average loss coming by 11.4 points per game.  Reports indicate that there’s some major locker room issues between the team and their coach, and with the way they’ve been playing on the court, those rumors are likely to be accurate.  Toronto’s defense has been atrocious as they’ve given up 100 points or more in six of their last seven games.  Over their last five games, the Raptors have allowed 108.4 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land.  That poor defense is not going to cut it against one of the hottest offenses in the NBA, especially since the Thunder come into tonight’s game off a loss.     

Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now, and we expect their major roll to continue.  The Thunder are 6-3 over their last nine games, and they could actually be a perfect 10-0 in those games.  Oklahoma City lost one game in overtime, and they blew two games in the final seconds.  The Thunder are a perfect 4-0 at home since the All-Star break with their wins coming by an average of 14.5 points per game.  The Thunder are 34-28 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been fantastic recently, averaging 112.2 points per game over their last five games.  Oklahoma City’s defense plays good at home where they only give up 96.1 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Toronto defense will be unable to contain the hot Oklahoma City offense, and that will be the determining factor in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Sunday night.    

9* Play THUNDER (-).

Charlotte and Detroit were both active at the trading deadline, but it seems the moves made by the Hornets have worked much better so far.  Charlotte is on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  The Hornets are playing complete team basketball right now, and their offense has been much more efficient with the acquisition of Mo Williams.  The ball movement has been pristine, and all five starters have scored in double digits in four of their last five games; they missed that feat in their last game by a single bucket.  Charlotte is also playing for the playoffs as they are currently in the 7th spot in the Eastern Conference.  The Hornets also play exceptional defense, and over their last five games, Charlotte has held their opponents to just 95.4 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land.    

Detroit looks to be in a free fall right now.  The Pistons come into tonight’s game on a 5-game losing streak, and they are just 6-12 over their last 18 games.  Detroit’s offense has been dismal recently as they’ve scored 95 points or less in four of their last five games.  Things won’t get an easier tonight against a solid Charlotte defense that is in good current form.  The Pistons’ defense hasn’t been any good either; they’ve allowed 102.6 points per game over their last five games.  Detroit will struggle on both ends of the court tonight, especially since they are still trying to figure out their rotation since making moves at the trading deadline.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions, so we’ll back Charlotte in this game on Sunday night.    

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Chicago played at home last night against Oklahoma City.  The Bulls were down double digits before rallying to win 108-105 in the last seconds.  Chicago won that game without their two best players, Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler, and they got unforeseen contributions from reserves Nikola Mirotic (26 points) and E’Twaun Moore (19 points).  Off that emotional big comeback win, Chicago must now take to the road without rest and play at one of the hottest teams in the NBA.  This is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for the Bulls, and we expect their play to reflect that.  Chicago just finished a 7-game homestand, so this is their first road game since February 20th.  The Bulls also played an easy schedule recently with games against struggling teams; last night’s win against the Thunder being the exception.  In their lone road game since the All-Star break, the Bulls lost 100-91 in Detroit.

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 SU during their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as a team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 SU and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 5-1 SU and ATS out of the break.  Indiana is off back-to-back easy wins over the Sixers and Knicks that required little energy.  The Pacers are still a fresh team, and they are in a much better scheduling spot than Chicago, especially since Indiana had last night off.  We’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this home game on Friday night.

10* Play PACERS (-).

Cleveland and Toronto are playing a similar style of basketball right now.  Both the Cavaliers and Raptors are looking to play up-tempo while scoring easy baskets in transition.  Cleveland beat Toronto 105-101 earlier this season.  That game had 206 points scored despite the teams only scoring 37 points in the fourth quarter.  The teams combined to take 161 shots from the field with 49 attempts from three-point land.  They combined to score 96 points inside the paint.  That’s a lot of easy baskets in transition, and we expect a repeat of that in tonight’s game.  Cleveland’s offense is in good current form as they have averaged 102.2 points per game over their last five games.  Over their last five games, the Raptors’ defense has allowed 103.6 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field and 42.6% shooting from three-point land.

Toronto is playing with a new lineup now as they’ve decided to rest Kyle Lowry.  The Raptors’ offense exploded in their last game for 114 points, and with point guard Greivis Vasquez now starting, we expect Toronto to be a much more efficient offensive team.  Their offense has been good overall this season as they are averaging 104.5 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Raptors will get their preferred fast pace against Cleveland, so we expect them to easily eclipse the century mark.  The Cavaliers’ offense will also eclipse the century in tonight’s game for the same reasons.  We expect a high-scoring game between Cleveland and Toronto on Wednesday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Golden State has been the best team in the NBA all season.  The Warriors come into tonight’s game in Brooklyn with an impressive 46-11 record.  However, nine of their eleven losses have come on the road.  Tonight’s game in Brooklyn is an extremely difficult scheduling and situational spot, and we do not expect the Warriors to be at their best.  Golden State is playing their final game of a 6-game East Coast road trip, and this will also be their fourth game in five nights, and it comes on a back-to-back set.  Golden State expended a lot of energy in last night’s 106-101 win in Boston.  The Warriors trailed that game by 26 points at one point, and they were down by 11 points going into the fourth quarter; they out-scored Boston 31-15 over the final 12 minutes.  Four guys played 32 minutes or more, and three players played 37 minutes or more.  I watched the entire second half, and it was clear that Golden State was an exhausted team at the finish, and that was repeated over and over by their home commentators.  This is their eleventh away game over their past thirteen games, and their tenth away game over their last eleven games overall.  The Warriors are just 3-7 ATS during their past ten games, so they are not playing up to expectations right now.

Brooklyn has played terrific basketball since the All-Star break.  The Nets are only 3-2 SU in their five games, but their two losses only came by 4 and 6 point margins.  Brooklyn was on the road for all five of those games, and off an underdog win, the Nets return home tonight with a lot of confidence and momentum.  Brooklyn improved their playoff chances at the trading deadline, and those moves have made them a much better team.  The Nets traded for Thaddeus Young, and he says the time on the road was a huge benefit for himself and the team.  “I got a chance to hang out with the guys, and kind of get a feel for everything that’s going on,” Young said.  “It got me a chance to kind of get in the flow and everything.  With us being on the road, we had practice, we were able to watch film, we had a chance to have lunch meetings.  So it really helped me out a great deal.”  Deron Williams agrees:  “I think we’re getting better now with Thad out there.  He’s getting acquainted and accustomed to playing with us, and we just have to continue to work on our playoff push.”  Brooklyn only lost by 8 points (107-99) at Golden State earlier this season, so they can certainly play with the Warriors.  Golden State is simply in a terrible scheduling spot, so we’ll take the points with Brooklyn in this home game on Monday night.

9* Play NETS (+).

Philadelphia and Indiana played right after the All-Star break and the Pacers won 106-95 on the Sixers’ home court.  We had a Best Bet winner on the Pacers in that game, and we’re going to use them once again in the rematch for similar reasons.  Philadelphia is the worse team in the NBA right now, especially on the road where they are just 5-25 on the season.  The Sixers made their objectives clear when they traded point guard Michael Carter-Williams to Milwaukee.  That deal just confirmed that the Sixers are tanking this season with their eye on the future.  Philadelphia does come in off a home win over Washington, but that win was nothing special as the Wizards are in free fall right now.  The Sixers closed as 7.5-point underdogs in that game; they were +8.5-point home underdogs to the Pacers in the recent meeting.  So even though this line looks high on the surface, it really isn’t when we put recent games into context.  Philadelphia’s offense is the worst in the league as they rank dead last in offensive efficiency metrics.  On the road, Philadelphia is only averaging 86.5 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 3-1 SU and ATS out of the break.  Indiana just beat Cleveland at home, but the Cavaliers were without LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.  The Pacers were favored in that game, so it’s unlikely they’ll letdown off the ‘signature’ win.  Indiana is simply the vastly superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.   

9* Play PACERS (-).

Golden State has been the best team in the NBA all season.  The Warriors come into tonight’s game in Toronto with an impressive 44-11 SU record.  However, nine of their eleven losses have come on the road, including last night’s 110-99 defeat in Cleveland.  Tonight’s game in Toronto is a difficult scheduling and situational spot, and we do not expect the Warriors to be at their best even though they are coming off a loss.  Golden State is playing their fourth of a six-game East Coast road trip, and this will also be their third game in four nights.  The Warriors are also getting road weary as this is their eighth away game over their last nine games, and their tenth away game over their last thirteen games.  The Warriors are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games, so they are not playing up to expectations right now.

Toronto’s post All-Star break has not been good; the Raptors are just 1-3 SU and ATS over their last four games.  However, all four of those games have come on the road, so tonight will be their first home game since February 11th.  Toronto has been strong at home where they are 21-9 SU on the season.  The Raptors own a solid +6.3 point differential at home where they are averaging 103.2 points per game while only giving up 96.9 points per game.  Toronto’s offense will have success against Golden State as the Warriors’ defense is allowing 101.2 points per game on the road this season.  The Warriors are not in good form right now as they only own a +0.8 point differential during their past five games.  Toronto is in a good scheduling spot as they’ve had two full days to get ready for this revenge game.  We’ll take the points with Toronto in this home game on Friday night.

9* Play RAPTORS (+).

Cleveland is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Indiana.  The Cavaliers come in off a big spotlight win at home last night against the Golden State Warriors; Cleveland won that game 110-99.  Cleveland shot 46.8% (36-77) from the field while hitting 82.9% (29-35) from the free throw line.  The Cavaliers were an aggressive team last night, and they had five players score in double digits.  LeBron James played his best game of the season with 42 points on 60% (15-25) shooting from the field and 44.4% (4-9) shooting from three-point land.  That was a huge win for Cleveland, and it was a game they wanted after losing by 16 points at Golden State earlier this season.  Now the Cavaliers must take to the road without rest while playing their third game in four nights.  They also had plane troubles last night, and they were actually scheduled to fly to Indiana early this morning.  It’s hard to imagine Cleveland bringing their best effort to Indiana tonight.

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 SU during their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as a team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers continued their momentum by going 2-0 SU and ATS out of the break.  Indiana got blown out in Oklahoma City (105-92) on Tuesday, but that was just a 1-point game right before the start of the fourth quarter.  The Pacers have now had two full days to get ready for tonight’s game, and they are catching Cleveland at the perfect time.  We’ll take the points with the Pacers in this game on Friday night.

10* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now, and we expect their major roll to continue.  The Thunder are on a 7-game winning streak, and they’ve won nine of their last ten games overall.  Oklahoma City has won their last two games without Kevin Durant who sat out with a foot injury.  Durant is out indefinitely, but we still like Oklahoma City to win this game easily.  The Thunder are 32-25 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been fantastic since the All-Star break.  They are averaging 109.5 points per game on 44.9% (168-374) shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City’s defense has also been terrific as they are only giving up 94.5 points per game on 39.6% (146-369) shooting from the field over their last four games.      

Phoenix played last night in Denver, and the Suns got a much needed 110-96 win.  That win actually means very little because the Nuggets are a team in free fall, and the Suns simply took advantage of Denver’s lack of effort.  Tonight will be a much stiffer challenge for the Suns, and their previous games indicate they’ll be up against it.  In their first three games after the All-Star break, the Suns went 0-3 SU.  Phoenix’s defense was atrocious in those three games as they gave up 111, 112, and 115 points while allowing those teams to shoot a combined 46.7% (122-261) from the field.  The Suns have not been good in back-to-back games this season; they are just 4-9 SU while getting out-scored by 3.6 points per game.  The Phoenix defense will be unable to contain the hot Oklahoma City offense, and that will be the determining factor in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Thursday night.    

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Washington is in a free fall right now.  The Wizards look nothing like the team that opened the season at 19-6.  Washington comes into tonight’s game in Minnesota on a 4-game losing streak, and they are just 4-11 over their last 15 games.  Washington played an ‘all-in’ game last night at home against Golden State.  The Wizards put everything they had into that game, and they were on the brink of a big win, but they blew the game in the final minutes.  Now they must travel and play in lowly Minnesota without rest off that emotional-draining 114-107 home loss.  The Wizards are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game, and we expect their losing ways to continue.  Washington’s defense has been atrocious since the All-Star break as they’ve allowed 127, 106, and 114 points in their three games.  The Wizards will struggle once again tonight, especially since the Timberwolves have scored 102 and 111 points in their two games since the All-Star break.   

Minnesota reacquired Kevin Garnett at the trading deadline.  While KG’s return to the Twin Cities is somewhat nostalgic, we’re not so sure how much of a positive this is for the growth of the team when looking at the long-term.  Minnesota is a youthful bunch plays loose and free, but Garnett is all business all the time, and that may bother the young guys as the season goes on.  However, tonight’s game is an exception, and we expect a supreme effort from the entire Minnesota team.  Garnett will be playing his first game since the trade, and the Timberwolves intentionally held him out so he could play at home.  Reports indicate Minnesota had a spirited practice yesterday with Garnett, and tonight’s game will bring out their best.  The Timberwolves have been good in their two games since the break, including a nice home win over the Suns.  Minnesota’s recent home schedule has been brutal with games against the Warriors, Hawks, Grizzlies, and Cavaliers.  They are taking a major step-down in class against the floundering Wizards, and this is a game Minnesota has a lot of motivation to win.  We’ll lay the points with the Minnesota in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Boston and Phoenix are playing a similar style of basketball right now.  Both the Celtics and Suns are looking to play up-tempo while scoring easy baskets in transition.  The two teams have each played two games since the All-Star break, and all four of those games have gone Over the total.  Boston played in games with total points of 210 and 229 while Phoenix played in games with total points of 220 and 219.  Phoenix won 118-114 in Boston earlier this season, and that game was a wild and high-scoring game.  The teams combined to take 180 shots from the field.  They combined to score 44 fast-break points, and they scored a whopping 132 points inside the paint.  That’s a lot of easy baskets in transition, and we expect a repeat of that in tonight’s game.  Boston’s defense has been a mess since coming out of the All-Star break; they’ve allowed 227 points in their two games.  Overall, the Celtics are allowing 103.3 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Phoenix made some big trades at the deadline.  They shipped Goran Dragic to Miami and Isaiah Thomas to Boston.  The Suns’ backcourt was too cluttered, but with the moves, Phoenix now has a defined rotation with Eric Bledsoe and Gerald Green starting at the guard spots.  The Suns acquired Milwaukee’s leading scorer, Brandon Knight, and he will anchor the second unit, giving Phoenix pace and scoring punch when the starters are on the bench.  Phoenix has an incredible offense at home where they are averaging 107.3 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Suns will easily eclipse the century mark tonight since they will get their preferred fast pace against the poor Boston defense.  The Celtics’ offense should also eclipse the century mark in tonight’s game for the same reasons.  We expect a high-scoring game between Boston and Phoenix on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Denver took advantage of the trading deadline by unloading unwanted players and clearing big money off their books.  The Nuggets are looking towards the future, and their remaining 28 games are a tool for them to get higher in the draft.  Denver is packing this season in as they just traded away one third of their roster that opened the season.  “It’s a long-term vision, certainly,” Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly said.  “The ultimate goal is to figure out how we can get 15 guys in that locker room that can play at a high enough level for us to compete for a championship.”  Those words tell us all we need to know, and against good teams, the Nuggets simply do not have enough to be competitive.  And the players are more concerned about themselves than the team: “It’s tough to say you’re trying to fight for a playoff position, because we’re kind of out of that. But just get better as individuals,” said Wilson Chandler.  The Nuggets played with no effort on Friday night as they scored just 81 points in their loss in Milwaukee.  Things are not going to get any easier tonight against a highly motivated Thunder team.  

Oklahoma City came thru for us again last night in their 110-103 win in Charlotte.  The Thunder won without Kevin Durant who sat out and rested his foot.  Durant is questionable again tonight, but even if he doesn’t play, we still like Oklahoma City to win this game easily.  The Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and we expect them to go on a major run in the second half.  The Thunder are on a 5-game winning streak, and they’ve won seven of their last eight games overall.  Oklahoma City is 30-25 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  The Thunder are a strong 17-8 on their home court where they are averaging 103.4 points per game on 45% shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City has been terrific on back-to-back sets as they are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS while averaging 104.4 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Sunday night.    

9* Play THUNDER (-).

Golden State has been the best team in the NBA all season.  The Warriors come into tonight’s game in Indiana with an impressive 43-9 record.  However, seven of their nine losses have come on the road, and tonight’s game is not one that they will be too focused for.  Golden State is playing their first of a 6-game East Coast road trip, and their next three games after tonight are much bigger than this game.  After playing the Pacers, the Warriors will play in Washington, Cleveland, and Toronto who are a combined 104-62 on the season.  Those three teams are all in the top five of the Eastern Conference standings, so Golden State will save themselves for those three games and simply go thru the motions tonight in Indiana.   

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers continued their momentum with an easy 106-95 win in Philadelphia coming out of the break.  Indiana has a +5.4 point differential over their last five games stretching back before the All-Star break.  To compare, Golden State has a +5 point differential over the same span.  Indiana simply holds a lot of value right now, so we’ll take the points with the Pacers in this game on Sunday night.       

9* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City came thru for us on Thursday night with an easy 104-89 Best Bet winner over Dallas.  We’ll come right back with the Thunder in this game for the same reasons.  Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now, and we expect them to go on a major run in the second half.  The Thunder are on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won six of their last seven games overall.  Oklahoma City is 29-25 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and the Thunder have gone 26-13 SU during their last thirty-nine games compared to just 3-12 at the start of the season.  Overall this season, Oklahoma City is averaging 100.7 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field.  The Thunder crushed Charlotte by 23 points (98-75) earlier this season even though Durant did not play in that game.  He is listed as questionable tonight due to a foot injury.

Charlotte is having a very disappointing season.  The Hornets come into tonight’s game with a 22-30 SU record, including a losing 13-15 record at home.  Charlotte went into the All-Star break in terrible form as they had lost three straight games, including their last two games at home.  Charlotte has the second worst offense in the NBA as they rank 29th in offensive efficiency.  Overall this season, the Hornets are only averaging 94.3 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.  The Hornets are also up against it since they will be playing their first game since February 10th while the Thunder will be playing their second game since the All-Star break.  Oklahoma City is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play THUNDER (-).

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games; they were a perfect 3-0 on the road during that span.  The Pacers have a veteran team, and we expect them to continue their momentum coming out of the break.  Indiana gets an easy opponent tonight in Philadelphia; the Pacers beat the Sixers 103-91 in their season opener.  They did lose 93-92 in Philadelphia last month, so that loss ensures they will not overlook the Sixers in this game.  George Hill missed that last meeting, and with him on the court, the Pacers are simply a vastly superior team, especially against a young and thin Philadelphia team.    

Philadelphia made a surprising trade yesterday when they shipped point guard Michael Carter-Williams to Milwaukee.  The Sixers got a first round draft pick in return, but that deal just confirms that the Sixers are tanking this season with their eye on the future.  Philadelphia was playing good basketball to close the first half, but for a young team, the All-Star break came at the wrong time.  The Sixers are not used to having a long break, and that disruption broke up their rhythm, and that is not a good thing for an inexperienced team.  Philadelphia is just 7-19 on their home court where they are giving up 100.2 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field this season.  The Sixers’ offense is the worst in the league as they rank dead last in offensive efficiency metrics.  Overall, Philadelphia is only averaging 89.8 points per game on 41% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  Indiana will begin the second half strong, so we’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this game on Friday night.       

10* Play PACERS (-).

Dallas started this season off hot; the Mavericks were 15-5 after their first twenty games.  But since then, Dallas has played up and down basketball while going just 21-14 over their last thirty-five games.  Dallas was playing excellent defense with Rajon Rondo on the court, but when he got injured, the Mavericks had to revert back to their old ways of fast-pace and no defense.  When facing good, high-octane offenses, Dallas has had trouble winning and keeping those opponents from scoring a lot of points.  Tonight’s game in Oklahoma City will be an extreme test for the Mavericks, and we just don’t see Dallas being competitive.  Overall this season, Dallas is giving up 101 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Mavericks’ defense has been torched by the Thunder’s offense; Dallas has allowed Oklahoma City to score 103 points or more in eight of the last nine meetings while giving up an average of 107.7 points per game.

Oklahoma City was playing their best basketball of the season right before the All-Star break, and we expect them to extend that run beginning tonight.  The Thunder are on a 3-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  Oklahoma City is 28-25 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and since then, the Thunder have gone 25-13 SU over their last thirty-eight games compared to 3-12 to start the season.  Overall this season, Oklahoma City is 16-8 at home while averaging 103.3 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field.  The Thunder only lost by 5 points in Dallas earlier this season even though Durant did not play in that game.  Oklahoma City will begin the second half strong, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this game on Thursday night.      

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Utah and Dallas are playing a similar style of basketball right now.  Both the Jazz and Mavericks are looking to play up-tempo while scoring easy baskets in transition.  Over their last two games, Utah has scored 202 points while taking 179 shots from the field.  The Jazz scored 27 fast-break points in those games, and that will continue in tonight’s game in Dallas.  The Mavericks’ defense has been a mess lately as they’ve allowed 105.5 points per game over their last four games.  That includes holding the Kings to 78 points in one of those games.  Overall, Dallas is allowing 102.6 points per game on 38.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Mavericks will be unable to stop the Utah offense in this game, especially since the Jazz are now playing a fast pace style.

Dallas plays much differently without Rajon Rondo on the court.  The Mavericks have scored 111, 101, 108, 100, 98, and 114 points in their last six games without Rondo.  Dallas scored less than 100 points in six of their previous eight games with Rondo on the court.  At home, Dallas is averaging 108.1 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field.  Overall this season, Utah is allowing 99 points per game on the road.  The Mavericks will easily eclipse the century mark tonight since they will get their preferred fast pace against the poor Jazz defense.  Utah’s offense has scored 100 points or more in three of their last four road games, so they will also eclipse the century in tonight’s game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Jazz and Mavericks on Wednesday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma City played one of their best games of the season yesterday; the Thunder crushed the Clippers 131-108.  That game was preceded by back-to-back emotional games against the New Orleans Pelicans, and now they must take to the road and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver on back-to-back days.  This will also be the team’s third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Oklahoma City’s showdown win over Los Angeles sets them up to regress in this game, especially considering how well they played against the Clippers.  The Thunder scored 131 points which was their highest point total in regulation time this season.  Oklahoma City shot 52.3% (46-88) from the field and 40% (8-20) from three-point land against the Clippers.  They also connected on 81.6% (31-38) from the free throw line.  The Thunder played a perfect game, and they will regress tonight in Denver.       

Denver returns home off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, six of their last seven games have been on the road.  The Nuggets have had two full days of rest coming into tonight’s game, so they have no excuse not to come with their best effort.  Denver is just 1-12 SU over their last thirteen games.  However, with the the All-Star break on the horizon, tonight’s game provides them an opportunity to go into their time off in a positive way.  “I think it’s big for us. For our sanity,” Ty Lawson said.  “To go into the break not thinking about losing. Go out on a high note. It’ll be therapeutic for everybody.”  Head coach Brian Shaw concurs: “I want us to start out winning a game, so we can get that feeling back of what it takes to win and just feel good about ourselves going into the break.”  Denver owns a +1.2 point differential at home this season despite having a losing 12-13 record on their court.  This is simply a bad spot for the Thunder and a good spot for the Nuggets, so we’ll take the points with Denver on Monday night.    

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Los Angeles is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Dallas.  The Clippers are playing their eighth and final game of a long road trip that has taken them to the East Coast, Canada, and Texas on two separate occasions.  Not only that, but Los Angeles is also playing their fourth game in five nights and without rest.  The Clippers played in Oklahoma City yesterday afternoon, and they got crushed 131-108 by the Thunder.  Los Angeles is now playing without Blake Griffin who had surgery on his elbow.  The Clippers’ defense has been a mess lately as they’ve allowed 102 points or more in five of their last six games.  Over their last five games, Los Angeles has given up 109.2 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Clippers will be unable to stop the potent Dallas offense in this game, especially since Los Angeles has had no time to fix their defensive issues.

Dallas is playing good basketball right now as they’ve won five of their last six games after suffering thru a 4-game losing streak.  Their lone recent loss came at Golden State, so there’s no shame in losing that game.  The Mavericks are playing like they were at the beginning of the season before they acquired Rajon Rondo.  Dallas is playing offensive-oriented line-ups without Rondo on the court, and their up-tempo style will score at will on the poor Los Angeles defense.  The Mavericks’ offense has scored 100 points or more in five straight games, and they will easily eclipse the century mark tonight.  At home, Dallas is averaging 108.5 points per game on 48% shooting from the field.  Overall this season, Los Angeles is allowing 103.6 points per game on the road.  Los Angeles is simply in terrible form and in a terrible spot, so we’ll lay the points with Dallas in this game on Monday night.

9* Play MAVERICKS (-).

Los Angeles and Dallas tend to play high-scoring games, and in fact, the last six meetings have all gone Over the total.  All six of those games had 211 points scored or more with an average of 225 points scored per game.  The Clippers and Mavericks played back on January 10th with that game having 220 total points scored.  The teams combined to take 174 shots with 61 attempts from three-point land.  There were 31 fast-break points scored, and 68 points scored inside the paint.  Tonight’s game will play out the same way as both teams will look to push the pace while shooting a lot from beyond the arc.  The Clippers’ defense has been a mess lately as they’ve allowed 102 points or more in five of their last six games.  Over their last five games, Los Angeles has given up 109.2 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Clippers will be unable to stop the potent Dallas offense in this game, especially since they’ve had no time to fix their defensive issues as they are playing on a back-to-back set.

Dallas plays much differently without Rajon Rondo on the court.  The Mavericks have scored 111, 101, 108, 100, and 114 points in their last five games without Rondo.  Dallas scored less than 100 points in six of their previous eight games with Rondo on the court.  At home, Dallas is averaging 108.5 points per game on 48% shooting from the field.  Overall this season, Los Angeles is allowing 103.6 points per game on the road.  The Mavericks will easily eclipse the century mark tonight since they are playing a poor Los Angeles defense that is in terrible current form.  The Clippers’ offense averages 106 points per game on the road, and they will also eclipse the century mark since they’ve done so in six straight meetings against Dallas.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Clippers and Mavericks on Monday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta has won back-to-back home games since losing in New Orleans by 15 points (115-100) last Monday night.  The Hawks won a pair of big games; they beat the Wizards 105-96 at home on Wednesday night and they beat the Warriors 124-116 at home on Friday night.  Now they must take to the road off back-to-back big wins, and face a Memphis team that is off a loss and sure to bring their best effort.  Atlanta’s showdown win over Golden State sets them up to regress in this game, especially considering how well they played against the Warriors.  The Hawks scored 124 points which was their second highest point total of the season.  Atlanta shot 49.4% (38-77) from the field and 55.6% (15-27) from three-point land against the Warriors.  They also connected on 89.2% (33-37) from the free throw line.  The Hawks played a perfect game, and they will regress tonight against the stout Grizzlies’ defense.         

Memphis returns home off a mini 3-game road trip with their last game being a tough 1-point loss in Minnesota.  The Grizzlies have been terrific at home this season where they are 21-5 while holding their their opponents to just 95.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Memphis defense has been tremendous in holding opponents to just 84.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 25.5% shooting from three-point land.  To compare, Atlanta’s defense has allowed 102.2 points per game over their last five games.  In a meeting in Atlanta last month, the Grizzlies held the Hawks to 96 points despite Atlanta hitting 52% (13-25) from three-point land in that game.  This is simply a bad spot for the Hawks and a good spot for the Grizzlies, so we’ll lay the short price with Memphis on Sunday night.    

10* Play GRIZZLIES (-).

Chicago’s current road trip is not going too well as the Bulls are on a 1-3 slide, including three consecutive losses.  However, the Bulls have a terrific opportunity to notch a solid win tonight in New Orleans.  Chicago comes into this game with two full days of rest, so they have no excuse not to bring their best effort.  The Bulls have been much better on the road than at home this season; Chicago is 17-9 away compared to just 13-11 at home.  Chicago already beat New Orleans this season; they won 107-100 back in late December.  The Bulls held a 54-46 point edge inside the paint in that game, and not many teams can do that against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans.  Chicago grabbed 15 offensive rebounds in that game, and that also shows that they own the match-up inside against the Pelicans.    

New Orleans is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game against Chicago.  The Pelicans are off four straight emotional games, and we do not expect them to have much left in the tank.  New Orleans beat the Clippers 108-103 as 7.5-point home underdogs, and then they  snapped Atlanta’s 19-game winning streak with a 115-100 win as 3-point home underdogs.  New Orleans then hosted Oklahoma City and lost 102-91 after blowing a double digit lead in the second half.  Last night, the Pelicans avenged that loss with a 116-113 win as 6-point underdogs in Oklahoma City.  New Orleans shot 48.2% (40-83) from the field, 55% (11-20) from three-point land, and 83.3% (25-20) from the free throw line.  Now they must wheel right back and play on back-to-back nights and face a rested Chicago team that we know will bring a top effort.  This is simply a bad spot for the Pelicans, so we’ll lay the short price with Chicago on Saturday night.    

9* Play BULLS (-).

Cleveland comes into tonight’s game in Indiana on a 12-game winning streak.  However, eight of those twelve games have come on their home court, including last night’s 105-94 spotlight win over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Now the Cavaliers must take to the road and play on back-to-back nights for the fourth time during their current winning streak.  In their three other games on back-to-back nights, Cleveland won two of those games by 5 points a piece.  During their current winning streak, three of Cleveland’s four road wins have come by single digits, so it’s clear the Cavaliers have played much better at home than on the road.  Cleveland was out-scored 50-36 inside the paint last night, and that’s going to be a major factor tonight in Indiana as the Pacers rank 5th in the league in rebounding percentage.  The Cavaliers will not get easy second-chance points, so they’ll need to shoot a high percentage from the perimeter in order to win this game by margin.      

Indiana is playing good basketball right now.  The Pacers are 3-2 over their last five games after suffering thru a 7-game losing streak.  One of Indiana’s recent losses only came by 5 points, so the Pacers are 5-1 ATS over their last six games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Indiana also has the scheduling advantage for tonight as they will be playing their fifth consecutive home game, and just their second game over the last six days.  To compare, Cleveland will be playing their third game over the last five days with this being their second game on consecutive nights.  The Pacers own a +3 point differential over their last five games.  Indiana’s offense is in good current form as they are averaging 101.6 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is just a bad situational and scheduling spot for Cleveland, and since Indiana is playing good basketball right now, we’ll take the Pacers plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play PACERS (+).

Phoenix has played nine of their last ten games at home, and getting out and on the road will be a good thing for the team.  The Suns were getting complacent for being home for too long, and we saw that in their play.  Phoenix opened the homestand with four consecutive wins, but they couldn’t maintain their focus and they lost three of their last five home games.  To be fair, those three losses came to the Rockets, Clippers, and Grizzlies who are some of the best teams in the West.  The Suns have had two full days of rest for tonight’s game, and we expect a peak performance, especially since they are coming in off a home loss.  Phoenix matches-up extremely well with Portland; the Suns have won the last three meetings and seven of the last nine meetings overall.  Phoenix plays up-tempo, efficient offense and that is going to cause fits for the Blazers in this game tonight.              

Portland was rolling early in the season, but the Blazers were hit with a slew of injuries which halted their good play.  Portland is just 3-8 SU over their last eleven games with the three wins coming by just 1, 4, and 7 points.  The good news for Portland is their injured players are back on the court.  The bad news is that it’s going to take time for those players to gel and get back into the rhythm they had earlier this season.  Their last game against Utah proved that point as the Blazers only won by a single point (103-102) despite all five starters scoring in double digits.  Portland is facing Phoenix at a terrible time because the Suns have a potent offense that the Blazers cannot trade points with right now.  Phoenix will prove to be too much for Portland, so we’ll take the points with the Suns in this game on Thursday night.       

10* Play SUNS (+).

Dallas and Sacramento played back on January 13th with the Mavericks winning 108-104 in overtime.  That game was well on pace to go flying over the posted total of 214, but an ugly 75-point second half ruined the Over.  The teams scored 123 points in the first half, and we expect that type of game for the full four quarters tonight.  Dallas and Sacramento combined to take 186 shots with 42 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was atrocious with Dallas hitting 43% (43-100) from the field and 25% (6-24) from three-point land.  Sacramento’s offense shot 44.2% (38-86) from the field and a horrendous 5.6% (1-18) from three-point land.  The shooting will be much better for both teams tonight because both defenses are in terrible current form.  Dallas has given up 315 points in their last three games while Sacramento has allowed 112.2 points per game over their last five games.

Sacramento will get their preferred fast pace against a Dallas team that plays much differently without Rajon Rondo on the court.  The Mavericks have scored 108, 100, and 114 points in their last three games without Rondo.  Dallas scored less than 100 points in six of their previous eight games with Rondo on the court.  Overall, Dallas is averaging 106.9 points per game on 47% shooting from the field this season.  And since they will be facing a terrible Sacramento defense, the Mavericks will easily eclipse the century mark tonight.  The Kings’ offense averages 102.1 points per game at home, and they will also eclipse the century mark since Dallas has allowed 100 points or more in 17 road games this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Mavericks and Kings on Thursday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington has lost three straight games and five of their last seven games overall.  On the surface, the Wizards appear to be playing bad basketball, but that’s not the case at all.  All five of  Washington’s losses have come by 8 points or less, and two of their losses came in overtime.  The Wizards have been a solid team all season, and tonight’s game in Atlanta is one they’ve had circled since losing by 31 points (120-89) to the Hawks back on January 11th.  Washington also lost the first meeting of the season against Atlanta, but that was only a 4-point defeat (106-102).  That result is a truer depiction of the two teams, and we expect tonight’s game to be as close as that first game.  The Wizards have a winning 13-10 record on the road this season, so they are certainly capable of playing up to their level away from home.      

Atlanta’s 19-game winning streak was snapped on Monday night in New Orleans.  The Hawks lost that game 115-100, and the loss confirmed the fact that they were not playing that well despite being on a long winning streak.  Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS over their last five games, and it appears that the pointspread has finally caught up to the Hawks.  Atlanta played just one good team over their recent 7-game homestand, and now tonight they’ll play a solid Washington team that is 31-18 on the season.  The Hawks were only a 4.5-point home favorite over Washington the last time they played, and now they are laying 1-point more which gives us good value on the Wizards.  We’ll take the points with Washington in this game on Wednesday night.       

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Minnesota and Dallas played less than two weeks ago with the Mavericks winning 98-75.  Despite the low score, the teams combined to take 165 shots with 42 attempts from three-point land.  Minnesota’s shooting was atrocious in that game as they only hit 34.8% (31-89) from the field and 13.3% (2-15) from three-point land.  Minnesota’s offense will play much better tonight because they will get their preferred fast pace against a Dallas team that plays much differently without Rajon Rondo on the court.  Minnesota’s defense is atrocious on the road.  The Timberwolves are allowing 110.2 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field and 39.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  In their last road game in Philadelphia, the Timberwolves allowed 103 points to the worst offense in the NBA.  That shows how bad Minnesota’s defense is.

Dallas started playing a different style of basketball when they acquired point guard Rajon Rondo from the Celtics.  The Mavericks were playing at a much slower pace, and their defense was thriving.  But Rondo got hurt a minute into their last game, and we saw Dallas revert back to their old style because they do not have a solid point guard to run the offense.  The Mavericks scored more than 100 points for the just the second time over their last seven games, and we expect an uptick in offense and a decline in defense without Rondo on the court.  Overall, Dallas is averaging 108.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field at home this season.  And since they will be facing a terrible Minnesota defense, the Mavericks will easily eclipse the century mark tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Timberwolves and Mavericks on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta has shocked the NBA this season; the Hawks come into tonight’s game with a 40-8 record.  Atlanta is currently on a 19-game winning streak, but despite winning, the Hawks are not playing good basketball right now.  Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS over their last four games, and it appears that the pointspread has finally caught up to the Hawks.  Atlanta played just one good team over their recent 7-game homestand, and now tonight they’ll play on the road for the first time since January 17th.  Atlanta is also dealing with injuries as DeMarre Carroll and Shelvin Mack are slated to miss this game.  The Hawks were only a 2.5-point home favorite over New Orleans the last time they played, and now they are laying 1-point more on the road which gives us good value on the Pelicans.                     

New Orleans is playing terrific basketball right now.  The Pelicans are 5-1 over their last six games, and they’ve been doing it without their best player, Anthony Davis.  However, Davis is slated to return to the court tonight, and with the supporting cast of the Pelicans playing well, we expect a big effort out of New Orleans.  The Pelicans play on a strong home court where they are 16-6 this season.  New Orleans owns a solid +6.8 point differential at home as they average 105.1 points per game and give up 98.3 points per game.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans’ defense has been outstanding while holding opponents to just 92 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Monday night.       

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Dallas is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Orlando.  The Mavericks won 93-72 last night in Miami, but that final score was misleading.  Dallas trailed by 12 points at the half before rallying in the second half and out-scoring Miami 60-27.  The Mavericks won, but their poor play continued, especially on the offensive end of the court.  Dallas has scored 98 points or less in five of their last six games, and it’s hard to imagine their offense playing any better tonight.  The Mavericks are playing on a back-to-back road set with this game also being their fourth in five nights.  Dallas played much bigger games against Memphis and Houston earlier this week, and after last night’s come from behind win, we do not expect Dallas to play with much effort in this game against the lowly Magic.

Orlando has been a competitive home team this season despite their limited talent.  The Magic will also play with a huge scheduling edge as this will be just their second game in five days.  Orlando has also been at home for the majority of the week, and with two full days off since their last game, we can expect the Magic to bring their best effort.  Orlando’s recent losses have all come against high octane offenses that can score the ball with high efficiency.  And Dallas was that team when the Magic last faced them, but the Mavericks have changed their identity since acquiring Rajon Rondo from Boston.  Chandler Parsons is questionable due to an illness and the Maverick's depth is already lacking, so the team is playing at a much slower pace now, and that alone will allow the Magic to hang in this game.  Orlando might be with Tobias Harris who is questionable with an ankle injury, but regardless this is a terrible spot for Dallas, so we’ll take Orlando as a home underdog on Saturday night.

9* Play MAGIC (+).

Toronto hit a rough patch in late-December when they lost seven of nine games.  Since that poor stretch of play, the Raptors have been much better while winning five of their last six games.  The Raptors have scored 337 points in their last three games, and their offensive success will continue tonight against the poor Brooklyn defense.  Toronto’s defense has been terrific recently as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 96.2 points per game on 43.8% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land.  The Raptors’ defense will continue their strong play tonight since Brooklyn has averaged just 90.4 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 27.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.   

Brooklyn returns home off a 4-game road trip in which they went just 1-3 SU.  The Nets are in terrible current form as they’ve lost eleven of their last thirteen games, and their poor play will continue tonight.  The Nets’ defense has been awful as they’ve giving up 108.6 points per game on 51.4% shooting from the field and 38% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Toronto scored 105 points on the Nets in an earlier season meeting, so Brooklyn will be hard-pressed in slowing down the Raptors’ offense tonight.  Toronto is playing good basketball right now, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Friday night.    

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Sacramento is in a strange situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Toronto.  The Kings haven’t played a game since last Friday night in California against the Warriors.  Sacramento was scheduled to play the Knicks in New York on Tuesday night, but that game was postponed due to snow.  The Kings then had to arrange different travel to get to Toronto, and they’ve had no time to get into any type of routine which is of utmost importance to NBA players.  Sacramento is also in terrible current form as they’ve lost six consecutive games, and their poor play will continue tonight since they’ll be rusty from not playing in four days.  The Kings’ defense has been awful on the road this season where they are giving up 106.4 points per game.  Toronto scored 117 points on the Kings’ home court in their last meeting, so Sacramento will be hard-pressed to slow down the Raptors’ offense tonight.

Toronto hit a rough patch in late December when they lost seven of nine games.  Since that poor stretch of play, the Raptors have been much better, winning four of their past five games.  The Raptors played last night in Indiana, and they easily beat the Pacers 104-91.  Toronto has scored 218 points in their last two games, and their offensive success will continue tonight against the poor Sacramento defense.  Overall, the Raptors are 17-7 SU at home this season, and eleven of those wins have come by 7 points or more.  Toronto’s defense has been terrific recently as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 93.6 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 32.1% shooting from three-point land.  Toronto is playing better basketball, and since they are catching the Kings in a poor spot, we’ll lay the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Boston is currently on a 6-game West Coast road trip; the Celtics are 2-2 so far on their trip.  Tonight’s game in Utah is definitely their toughest game of the trip.  The Celtics beat Portland and Denver on back-to-back nights, but the Blazers played without LeMarcus Aldridge and the Nuggets played without Ty Lawson.  Boston was extremely fortunate to catch those teams without their best players, and if those teams were fully healthy, it’s unlikely the Celtics would have won those games.  Boston will now play in the thin air and altitude of Utah on a back-to-back set after taking the Warriors to the wire last night in a close 114-111 loss.  The Celtics will also be playing their fourth game in five nights, so this is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Boston.     

Utah is glad to be back at home after playing seven of their last eleven games on the road.  The Jazz are only 8-12 SU at home this season, but they have a positive point differential, so they’ve played much better basketball than the record indicates.  Utah head coach Quin Snyder made a lineup change two games ago; he flipped the point guards, making Dante Exum the starter with Trey Burke running the second unit.  The change has paid off as the Jazz have won their last two games while scoring 101 and 108 points while shooting 49.3% (74-150) from the field and 45% (27-60) from three-point land.  Utah’s offense will now face a Boston defense that is in poor current form as the Celtics have allowed 104.6 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is simply a terrible spot for Boston, so we’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Monday night.    

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Detroit started the season with an ugly 5-23 record.  After releasing Josh Smith, the Pistons went on a major run and they were playing like the team we thought they’d be coming into this season.  Since Smith has been gone, Detroit is 12-4.  However, the Pistons lost 101-86 in Milwaukee last night, and now they must travel to Toronto while playing on a back-to-back set.  Even worse for Detroit is that Brandon Jennings got hurt last night with an apparent Achilles injury.  Jennings is what makes the offense go, and head coach Stan Van Gundy knows how much the Pistons will miss him on the court: “He has been our catalyst. It’s a major, major loss.”  Van Gundy has no time to fix his rotations, and an already bad Detroit bench will be even thinner now which will give the Raptors a major edge in this game.  

Toronto hasn’t been playing the best of basketball lately, but the Raptors do return home off a 2-1 winning road trip.  Toronto was off yesterday, so we expect them to come with a big effort tonight, especially since they’ve lost their last two home games.  Overall, the Raptors are 16-7 at home this season, and eleven of those wins have come by more than tonight’s posted spread.  Toronto is also playing with revenge after Detroit won 114-111 on the Raptors’ home court thirteen days ago.  Jennings scored 34 points for the Pistons in that game, so not having to guard him is a big break for the Raptors.  Toronto has a very good second unit, and they will hold a major edge over the limited Detroit second unit in this game.  We expect a peak performance by the Raptors, so we’ll lay the points with Toronto in this game on Sunday night.     

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Houston lost for us at Golden State on Wednesday night, but we have no hesitation in coming right back with the Rockets tonight.  The Warriors are simply a bad match-up for the Rockets, but Houston matches-up extremely well against their opponent tonight, the Phoenix Suns.  The Rockets have won the last three meetings against the Suns while scoring 100, 115, and 122 points.  Houston has shown a strong ability to bounce back off a loss this season, so we expect a big effort tonight.  The Rockets are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line when playing off a SU loss, including a perfect 3-0 SU off a loss to the Warriors.  Houston has an explosive offense that has scored 102 points or more in 15 of their last 17 games.  Phoenix has one of the worst defenses in the league, so the Rockets’ scoring ways will continue in this game.      

Phoenix is on a 4-game winning streak, but those wins have come against teams in terrible current form.  The Suns also let all four of those opponents come back from double digit deficits, and that speaks volumes about their poor defense.  Phoenix plays at an ultra-quick pace, but that plays right into the strength of the Rockets’ offense.  The Suns’ defense is in poor current form as they’ve allowed 106.8 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Houston will score at will on the Suns, and since they match-up well and play good off a loss, we’ll take the Rockets plus the points in this game on Friday night.      

10* Play ROCKETS (+).

Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Thunder are on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  Oklahoma City is finally over the .500 mark on the season as they are currently 22-20 on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and since then, the Thunder have gone 18-8 compared to 4-12 without those two on the court.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City is averaging 110.8 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field.  The Thunder have won the last three meetings against the Hawks while scoring 100 points or more in every game.       

Atlanta has certainly been the surprise team in the NBA this season.  The Hawks come into tonight’s game with an incredible 35-8 record, including an 18-3 record on their home court.  There’s no real knocks on the Hawks, but they have played an extremely weak schedule, and that’s especially true in recent games.  Atlanta owns wins over the Pacers, Pistons, Celtics, and Sixers in four of their last six games.  Their other two wins did come over the Bulls and Raptors who have good seasonal records, but both of those teams are in poor current form as they are a combined 6-14 over their last 20 games.  Oklahoma City is in tremendous form, so the Hawks are definitely taking a major step-up in class for this game.  We’ll take the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Friday night.       

9* Play THUNDER (+).

Houston will be extremely focused for a prime effort tonight against Golden State.  The Rockets view the Warriors as their rival, but the three games this season have been dominated by Golden State.  Houston is 0-3 against Golden State, losing by 11, 12, and 25 points.  The most recent loss was an embarrassing 131-106 loss on their home court last Saturday night.  That 25-point loss was even more humiliating considering the Rockets’ players were talking trash in the media prior to that game.  Golden State had something to prove, and they blew out the Rockets.  Tonight’s game provides Houston the perfect opportunity to atone for that ugly loss, and we fully expect the Rockets to bring their ‘A’ game tonight.     

Golden State has been terrific this season; the Warriors come into tonight’s game with a fantastic 33-6 record.  But the team is off back-to-back perfect offensive games in which they scored a total of 253 points on 54.5% (94-172) shooting from the field and 44.9% (22-49) shooting from three-point land.  It’s hard to imagine Golden State being able to duplicate those incredible offensive numbers tonight, especially since they have nothing more to prove against Houston.  The Warriors’ defense had given up 105 points or more in three of their previous four games before holding Denver to just 79 points on Monday afternoon.  Houston’s offense is in terrific current form as they averaged 110.8 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take Houston plus the points on Wednesday night.      

9* Play ROCKETS (+).

Orlando has been a competitive team this season despite their limited talent.  The Magic come into tonight’s game in Detroit off an embarrassing 28-point (127-99) home loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday night.  That ugly defeat set head coach Jacque Vaughn off, and he put the team thru a physical and grueling practice on Tuesday before heading to Michigan to face the Pistons.  “The entire practice was about competition,” Vaughn said.  “It was black jerseys vs. white jerseys the entire time in every drill. That’s the mindset that we have to have. You’re coming into this game and it’s competition and there’s only going to be one winner.”  Orlando’s best player, Victor Oladipo, senses the practice has the team ready for Detroit: “There’s no question that guys were upset that we lost on Sunday and they wanted to win Tuesday in practice. You could see the competitive nature of our guys in practice and it was good for us.”

Detroit started the season with an ugly 5-23 record.  After releasing Josh Smith, the Pistons have gone on a major run and they are playing like the team we thought they’d be coming into this season.  Since Smith has been gone, Detroit is 11-3.  However, two of their three losses have come over their last four games as the team is not playing the same dominant basketball as they were when they were on their 7-game winning streak.  Three of the Pistons’ last four wins have come by just 5, 3, and 2 points with their lone double-digit win coming over lowly Philadelphia.  Orlando is also playing with motivation after losing by 23 points to Detroit at home last month.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Orlando on Wednesday night.    

9* Play MAGIC (+).

Chicago and Cleveland are now playing the same style of basketball.  The Bulls and Cavaliers are playing at a much quicker pace while looking to score easy baskets in transition.  The two teams played way back on Halloween night with the Cavaliers winning 114-108 in overtime.  The pace was ultra quick with 194 shots taken with 46 attempts from three-point land.  There were 37 fast break points scored, and the teams combined to score 102 points inside the paint.  Chicago’s defense is in terrible current form as the Bulls have allowed 101 points or more in eight of their last ten games.  Over their last five games, the Bulls’ defense has allowed an average of 104.6 points per game on 50.4% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land.

Cleveland is starting to play their best basketball of the season.  The Cavaliers have won back-to-back games over the Clippers and Lakers while scoring a total of 235 points.  Cleveland has scored 100 points or more in their last three games, and since Chicago’s defense is in terrible form, we expect Cleveland to easily eclipse the century mark in tonight’s game.  The Cavaliers’ defense is also in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 102 points or more in six consecutive games, and in seven of their last eight games overall.  Over their last five games, Cleveland has given up 109 points per game on 49.9% shooting from the field.  Chicago is averaging 100 points per game on the road this season, so we also expect them to easily eclipse the century mark in tonight’s game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Bulls and Cavaliers on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Minnesota and Denver play the same style of basketball as both teams love to get up and down the court.  The Timberwolves and Nuggets both want to play at a fast pace while getting easy baskets in transition.  The two teams just played twelve days ago in Minnesota with the Nuggets winning 110-101.  The pace was ultra quick with 173 shots taken with 43 attempts from three-point land.  There were 29 fast break points scored, and the teams combined to score 94 points inside the paint.  Minnesota played last night in Phoenix, and they game up 110 points.  The Timberwolves have played back-to-back nights on the road three times this season.  In those three games, Minnesota’s defense has allowed 131, 127, and 110 points with those games averaging a whopping 227.7 points per game.  Overall, the Timberwolves’ defense is allowing 112.1 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Denver also played last night, and they lost 97-89 in Dallas in an oddly played game.  The Mavericks did not run their typical fast-paced offense because of fatigue, and the Nuggets were simply unable to get out and run in transition.  Despite playing on a back-to-back set tonight, Denver is well-rested as tonight’s game is just their third over a 7-day span.  The Nuggets’ offense has scored 101 points or more in eight of their last ten games.  Over their last five games, Denver is averaging 104.8 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field.  Denver’s defense has given up 101 points or more in nine of their twelve games, and since Minnesota is averaging 100 points per game on the road this season, we expect them to score their share of points as well.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Timberwolves and Nuggets on Saturday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington and Brooklyn played last night with the Nets winning 102-80 on the Wizards’ home court.  That game was not a good spot for Washington as they were coming off four games in which they played the Bulls twice, Hawks, and Spurs.  All four of those teams are high profile clubs, and since the Wizards were off back-to-back wins over the Spurs and Bulls, it was easy for them to be flat for the lowly Nets last night.  Tonight’s game will be a different story, especially since Washington was embarrassed by 22 points on their home court.  “We had no focus, no energy, lack of respect for your opponent and the game,” Washington coach Randy Wittman said.  “And that’s what happens.”  The Wizards will certainly be focused and ready to atone for last night’s ugly defeat.         

Brooklyn has been a mediocre team all season.  The Nets are just 17-23 on the season, and last night’s win snapped a 7-game losing streak.  But that win was more about what Washington failed to do right rather than what Brooklyn actually did right.  The Nets will be hard-pressed to beat the Wizards again, especially since Brooklyn will likely sit their best defensive player, Kevin Garnett.  He rarely plays on back-to-back nights, so the Nets will likely be without their best rim protector.  Washington’s starters got plenty of rest in the blowout loss as five starters played less than 31 minutes.  To compare, three of Brooklyn’s five starters played 31 minutes or more and Garnett was not one of them.  Prior to last night, the Nets’ defense had allowed 314 points in their previous three games, and we expect the Wizards’ offense to bounce back strong off a poor performance.  We’ll lay the points with Washington in this game on Saturday night.       

9* Play WIZARDS (-).

Denver and Dallas just played on Wednesday night with the Nuggets winning 114-107.  We had a Best Bet on Denver in that game, and we’ll back them once again tonight for all of the same reasons.  Denver was well-rested with four days off going into that game, so tonight’s game is just their second over a 6-day span.  Denver is also in good current form; the Nuggets are 5-0 SU over their last five games.  The Nuggets have scored 101 points or more in eight of their last nine games.  Over their last five games, Denver is averaging 109.8 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land. 

Dallas is not in good current form right now.  They should be on a 4-game losing streak, but the Mavericks came back from a 10-point deficit with just about three minutes left to play to beat Sacramento in overtime.  Dallas will be playing their eight game over the last fourteen days, and since six of those games came on the road, this is a terrible scheduling spot for the Mavericks.  Dallas has given up 446 points in their last four games.  Overall, the Mavericks allow 102.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land.  Dallas has allowed 104 points or more in their last four games, so they cannot be trusted when laying this many points, especially against a Denver team in good current form.  We’ll take the Nuggets plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Golden State has been terrific this season; the Warriors come into tonight’s game with a fantastic 31-5 record.  But it seems that the team is looking ahead, and trying to preserve their players for the playoffs.  Golden State will rest Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala tonight, and their absence  will have a major impact on this game.  Those two guys are Golden State’s best defenders, and without them on the court, the Warriors will be easy to score upon both inside and out on the perimeter.  Golden State owns three wins over Oklahoma City this season, but the December 18th meeting is the game in which both teams were healthy.  The Warriors were at home for that game, and they only won 119-114 despite Kevin Durant getting hurt right before the half and missing the rest of the game.  At full strength, Oklahoma City matches-up extremely well with Golden State, and that will be evident tonight.

Oklahoma City lost for us last night, but we’re willing to come right back with the Thunder in tonight’s game for all of the same reasons.  The Thunder are currently 18-20 on the season, and they need need to go on a major winning streak in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Oklahoma City was rusty from a 5-day layoff last night as they got out-scored 40-18 in the first quarter.  But the Thunder out-scored the Rockets 83-72 over the final three quarters, and that’s a promising sign for tonight’s game.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and since then, the Thunder have gone 14-8 compared to 4-12 without those two on the court.  Oklahoma City has won their last four home games, and since they are getting points on their strong home court, we’ll take the Thunder plus the points on Friday night.

9* Play THUNDER (+).

Golden State and Oklahoma City play the same style of basketball as both teams love to get up and down the court.  The Warriors and Thunder both want to play at a fast pace while getting easy baskets in transition.  Golden State’s offense has been terrific all season.  The Warriors are averaging 109.3 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma City’s defense is in poor current form as they are allowing 105.8 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 47.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Thunder have given up 102 points or more in six of their last seven games, and in eight of their last ten games overall.  

Oklahoma City is playing at a much quicker pace since the return of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  The Thunder are averaging 90.1 shots per game over their last ten games, and that will continue tonight, especially since the three games against the Warriors have all been super fast-paced.  Golden State will rest Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala tonight, and their absence  will have a major impact on this game.  Those two guys are Golden State’s best defenders, and without them on the court, the Warriors will be easy to score upon both inside and out on the perimeter.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been terrific at home lately as they are averaging 110.8 points per game over their last five home games.  Golden State has allowed 100 points or more in their last five road games, so the Thunder will easily eclipse the century mark tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Thunder on Friday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma City will begin an important stretch of games tonight when they play in Houston.  The Thunder are currently 18-19 on the season, and they need need to go on a major winning streak in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Oklahoma City comes into tonight’s game with a full five days of rest, so they’ve had plenty of time to practice and get their new pieces acclimated with the new rotation.  On the surface, Oklahoma City seems to be slumping, but we have to put their record into perspective.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and since then, the Thunder have gone 14-7 compared to 4-12 without those two on the court.  Oklahoma City is 5-3 over their last eight games, and since they are off a win with time to prepare, we expect a big effort tonight.   

Houston comes into tonight’s game off a bad loss in Orlando last night.  The Rockets lost that game 120-113, and their defense played terribly once again.  Over their last five games, Houston’s defense has allowed 98 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field.  Houston opened the season at 15-3, and that strong record was mainly due to their strong defense.  Since Thanksgiving, the Rockets are just 15-9, so their play has obviously slipped.  Houston beat Oklahoma City in an ugly 69-65 game back in mid-November, but three Thunder starters did not play in that game.  Houston is in a poor scheduling spot, and since this game is much bigger for the rested Thunder, we’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City on Thursday night.      

9* Play THUNDER (-).

Dallas is not in good current form right now despite winning in Sacramento in overtime last night.  They should be on a 3-game losing streak as the Mavericks trailed for the majority of that game, and they were down 10 points with just about three minutes left to play.  Dallas was also fortunate that DeMarcus Cousins fouled out in regulation, and that Rudy Gay was lost in the first quarter due to a knee injury.  Those two guys are the top scorers for the Kings, so Dallas got a very fortunate win last night.  Off that energy-sapping win in overtime, the Mavericks must play on a back-to-back set in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Dallas will be playing their sixth road game over their last seven games.  This will also be their seventh game over the last thirteen days.  Dallas has given up 332 points in their last three games.  Overall, the Mavericks allow 102.5 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land.  Dallas has allowed 100 points or more in 14 of their 20 road games this season.

Denver is well-rested for this game as they come in off four full days of rest.  Denver is also in good current form; the Nuggets are 4-0 SU over their last four games.  The Nuggets have played much better at home this season as 11 of their 17 wins have come in Denver.  On their home court, Denver is averaging 104.1 points per game, and since Dallas’ defense is in terrible form and poor on the road, the Nuggets will easily eclipse the century mark tonight.  Denver’s offense has been terrific lately as they’ve averaged 107.2 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Dallas is in poor form and they are in a terrible situational spot, so we’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Dallas is not in good current form right now.  The Mavericks have lost back-to-back games after their defense allowed a total of 228 points.  Dallas will be playing their fifth road game over their last six games.  This will also be their sixth game over the last twelve days.  Dallas has to play in Denver tomorrow night, so they will have to carefully manage themselves in order to have something left for their next game.  Dallas has played little defense on the road this season as they are giving up 102.2 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  Overall, Dallas has allowed 100 points or more in 13 of their 19 road games this season.  Dallas is 8-5 SU in those thirteen wins, but five of the eight wins have come by 5 points or less.  

Sacramento is in good current form; the Kings are 3-2 SU over their last five games.  At home, the Kings have been competitive in their recent seven games with four wins.  Their three losses have come by a total of 20 points.  Sacramento played in Dallas back on November 11th and they held a 24-point lead in that game.  The Kings still led by double digits in the third quarter, so that game showed that the Kings match-up well with the Mavericks.  Sacramento’s offense has been terrific lately as they’ve averaged 104 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 36.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  There’s value on the Kings in this game, so we’ll take the points in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play KINGS (+).

Dallas and Sacramento are playing a similar style of basketball right now.  The Mavericks and Kings both want to play at a fast pace while getting easy baskets in transition.  Dallas has been all offense and no defense this season.  The Mavericks are averaging 108.8 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  Dallas’ defense is allowing 102.5 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land.  On the road this season, Dallas is giving up 102.2 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  Overall, Dallas has allowed 100 points or more in 13 of their 19 road games this season. 

Sacramento is playing at a much quicker pace since firing Mike Malone.  However, the faster pace has hampered their defense.  Sacramento has allowed 101 points or more in eleven of their last thirteen games.  As poor as their defense has been, the Kings’ offense has been terrific, especially at home.  Sacramento has scored 103 points or more in their last seven games on their home court.  They will eclipse the century mark once again tonight as Dallas’ defense is in poor current form, giving up 228 points in their last two games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Mavericks and Kings on Tuesday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Cleveland is struggling to win games without LeBron James on the court.  The Cavaliers are on a 4-game losing streak, and they are just 1-7 over their last eight games.  Cleveland recently traded for J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgov, and the team has played better basketball over their last two games.  The Cavaliers are now playing at a quicker pace; they took 168 total shots, including 52 three’s in their last two games.  While they only scored 94 and 93 points in those games, keep in mind they were facing two of the best defensive teams in the league in Golden State and Houston.  The Cavaliers are taking a major step-down in defensive class tonight against a Sacramento defense that has been terrible recently.  Over their last five games, the Kings’ defense has allowed 105.6 points per game.  Cleveland’s offense will have a breakout performance tonight.     

Sacramento is playing at a much quicker pace since firing Mike Malone.  However, the faster pace has hampered their defense.  Sacramento has allowed 101 points or more in eleven of their last twelve games.  As poor as their defense has been, the Kings’ offense has been terrific, especially at home.  Sacramento has scored 104 points or more in their last six games on their home court.  They will eclipse the century mark once again tonight as Cleveland’s defense is allowing 100.3 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field on the road this season.  The Cavaliers have given up 217 points in their last two games, and 105 points or more in three of their last four games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cavaliers and Kings on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Denver and Sacramento have played twice so far this season, and both of those games were high-scoring shootouts.  The first meeting in Denver had 215 points scored, and the second meeting in Sacramento had 240 points scored.  We expect tonight’s game to resemble those point totals as the Nuggets and Kings will play another high-scoring game.  Denver is playing good basketball right now as they’ve won three straight games.  The Nuggets’ offense is in good current form; they’ve scored 101 points or more in six of their last seven games.  Over their last five games, Denver averaged 104.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point land.  Denver will easily eclipse the century mark as Sacramento’s defense has allowed 103.4 points per game over their last five games.     

Sacramento is playing at a much quicker pace since firing Mike Malone.  However, the faster pace has hampered their defense.  Disregard the 83 points allowed to Oklahoma City in their last game as that was simply a case of the Thunder shooting terribly from the field.  Sacramento allowed Oklahoma City to take 89 shots, including 30 three’s while scoring 29 fast break points.  The Thunder shot just 32.6% (29-89) from the field and 30% (9-30) from three-point land; the Kings’ defense had nothing to do with the low point total for the Thunder.  Sacramento’s offense has been good at home as they’ve scored 104 points or more in their last five games on their home court.  They will eclipse the century mark once again tonight as Denver’s defense is allowing 106.5 points per game on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Nuggets and Kings on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Houston is a much better team than New York, but this game comes down to margin of victory more than anything else.  The Rockets are very likely to win this game, but there’s reason not to expect Houston to win this game in a blowout.  Houston has alternated wins and losses over their last six games; they come in off a 105-93 win in Cleveland last night.  Houston has played back-to-back road games on back-to-back nights four times this season.  The Rockets are 3-1 SU in that second game, but only one of those wins came by more than tonight’s posted spread.  Overall, Houston is 12-5 SU on the road this season, but they are just 3-14 ATS based on tonight’s point spread.       

New York is having a miserable season.  The Knicks come into tonight with an embarrassing 5-33 record, and they are playing without their best players.  However, this is primetime game against a good opponent, and if the Knicks are ever going to bring a focused effort, tonight will be the game.  The Knicks are just 3-15 SU at home this season, but they are 13-5 ATS based on tonight’s posted point spread.  So if we combine the two teams spread records based on tonight’s line, we have a 27-8 ATS situation that favors New York.  My power ratings only make Houston a 9.5-point favorite, so there is also value on the Knicks in this game.  We’ll take the big points with New York in this game on Thursday night.    

9* Play KNICKS (+).

Oklahoma City is not in good current form right now.  The Thunder are just 4-4 over their last eight games with three of their wins coming by 8 points or less.  Oklahoma City got waxed by 26 points (117-91) at Golden State on Monday night.  That was the fourth straight game in which the Thunder allowed 102 points or more; they’ve allowed 101 points or more in nine of their last ten games overall.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City allowed 108 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and an ugly 41.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Thunder simply cannot be trusted when laying points on the road right now, especially with their defense in total disarray.

Sacramento has not been good since the unexpected firing of head coach Mike Malone.  The Kings are just 3-7 over their last ten games, but five of those games came on the road.  At home, Sacramento was competitive in their recent five games with a pair of wins while their three losses came by a total of 22 points.  If the Kings are going to snap out of their recent funk, tonight will be the game.  Sacramento hosted Oklahoma City on December 16th and they had to play that game without DeMarcus Cousins.  The Kings were a 7.5-point underdog in that game, and that came when the Thunder were on a 6-game winning streak.  Cousins will be on the court tonight, and the Thunder are in bad form, yet they are once again 7.5-point favorites which doesn’t make much sense.  There’s value on the Kings in this game, so we’ll take the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play KINGS (+).

Oklahoma City and Sacramento played three weeks ago with the Thunder winning 104-92.  That game only had 196 points scored despite the teams playing at a fast pace.  The Thunder and Kings combined to take 171 shots, and they had 38 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was terrible as Oklahoma City hit 30% (6-20) from three-point land.  Sacramento shot just 42.9% (36-84) from the field and 27.8% (5-18) from three-point land.  The teams were aggressive as they had 29 fast break points with 98 points coming from inside the paint.

Sacramento has played no defense since firing Mike Malone.  The Kings are playing at a much quicker pace now, but their defense has suffered because of it.  Sacramento has allowed 101 points or more in ten straight games, and that will happen again tonight, especially since Oklahoma City is off a terrible offensive game in which they scored just 91 points.  Sacramento’s offense has been good at home as they’ve scored 106 points or more in their last four games on their home court.  They will eclipse the century mark once again tonight as Oklahoma City’s defense is a mess right now.  The Thunder have allowed 102 points or more in four straight games; they’ve allowed 101 points or more in nine of their last ten games overall.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City allowed 108 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and an ugly 41.2% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Kings on Wednesday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Memphis has been one of the most consistent teams in the NBA all season.  The Grizzlies come into tonight’s game in Atlanta with a 25-9 record, including an impressive 11-5 mark on the road.  Memphis has only been an underdog seven times this season; the Grizzlies went 5-2 ATS in those games while winning four games outright.  Memphis went on a 4-game losing streak in mid-December, but since then, the Grizzlies have gone 4-1 SU over their last five games.  Their lone loss was excusable as they were playing in Denver on the second night of a back-to-back set.  The Grizzlies are more of an offensive team this season as they are averaging 101.9 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field.    

Atlanta beat us on Monday night, but we have no hesitation in playing against the Hawks once again.  Atlanta is returning home off a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS West Coast road trip in which they beat the Trail Blazers and Clippers as underdogs.  Now they return home and have to lay points into a very good Memphis team that thrives when getting points.  Atlanta has been labeled as the “Spurs of the East” because head coach Mike Budenholzer was a former San Antonio assistant.  The Hawks are playing the same style as the Spurs, but Memphis has had success against their schemes.  The Grizzlies are 2-1 against San Antonio this season with their lone loss only coming by 6 points.  Memphis knows how to attack and defend Atlanta’s pace and space style of play, so that gives the Grizzlies a nice advantage for this game.  This is a tough spot for Atlanta, so we’ll take the points with Memphis in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Atlanta is the surprise team of the NBA so far this season.  The Hawks come into this game with an impressive 25-8 record.  As good as they’ve been, we have to keep in mind that Atlanta plays in the terrible Eastern Conference.  The Hawks have feasted on those weak teams, and they’ve yet to face good teams from the West in consecutive games.  Atlanta will complete their 3-game mini West Coast road trip tonight in Los Angeles, and it will be their toughest challenge.  The Hawks did win in Utah and in Portland, but the Clippers are better and a 3-0 road trip sweep is highly unlikely for Atlanta.  The Hawks’ defense has been terrible on the road in their last three games against strong offensive teams from the West; they gave up 107 points to the Blazers, 111 points to the Thunder, and 110 points to the Rockets.  Atlanta’s defense will give up a lot of points to the Clippers tonight.         

Los Angeles has won three straight games, and four of their last five games overall after going thru a mini slump in which they went just 1-3 SU in their previous four games.  The Clippers are a strong 15-4 at home this season where they are averaging 106.3 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Clippers’ bench is much better now that Spencer Hawes has returned from injury; the second unit would repeatedly give away leads built by the starters.  That’s exactly what happened when Los Angeles lost 107-104 in Atlanta two weeks ago; the Clippers led that game by 13 points at one point.  The Clippers are also rested and ready for this revenge game, and they’ve had time to practice as their schedule lightened up over the last week.  We expect a big effort from Los Angeles, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.    

10* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Detroit won as a Best Bet for us on Tuesday night when they beat Orlando 109-86, and we’ll come right back and play the Pistons tonight for all of the same reasons.  Detroit was slated to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA with Stan Van Gundy running the show, but they were terrible early on and own just an 8-23 record.  However, it was addition by subtraction for Detroit after they got rid of Josh Smith, who by many accounts, was taking the Pistons down single handily.  Since Smith’s departure, Detroit has played their best three games of the season with a 10-point win (119-109) over the Pacers at home, a 23-point win (103-80) over the Cavaliers on the road, and a 23-point win (109-86) over the Magic on the road.  “I think it’s everybody being so unselfish,” said Brandon Jennings.  “Everybody’s making the extra pass, not just one guy out there making plays. When guys get in the post, they’re passing it back out. Guys are getting open shots. We’re being very unselfish.”  That quote speaks directly to the fact that Smith was a ball hog who prevented the Pistons from being a unified team on the court.

New York has been a complete mess this season.  The Knicks come into this game with an awful 5-29 record, and they have a slew of players on the injured list.  New York’s transition to the triangle offense has been a wreck, and their inability to score consistently has put enormous pressure on their poor defense.  The Knicks are in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 111 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 44.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Detroit’s offense is averaging 107.2 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 40.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  There’s a lot of value on Detroit in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Pistons on Friday night.   

9* Play PISTONS (-).

Detroit has not played as expected this season.  The Pistons were slated to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA with Stan Van Gundy running the show, but that has yet to come to fruition.  However, it’s addition by subtraction for Detroit after they got rid of Josh Smith, who by many accounts, was taking the Pistons down single handily.  Since Smith’s departure, Detroit has played their best two games of the season with a 10-point win (119-109) over the Pacers at home and a 23-point win (103-80) over the Cavaliers on the road.  “I think it’s everybody being so unselfish,” said Brandon Jennings.  “Everybody’s making the extra pass, not just one guy out there making plays. When guys get in the post, they’re passing it back out. Guys are getting open shots. We’re being very unselfish.”  That quote speaks directly to the fact that Smith was a ball hog who prevented the Pistons from being a unified team on the court.

Orlando has more wins (13) than Detroit (7), but the Magic are not the more talented team.  The Magic have a weak roster by NBA standards, and they need perfect setups to win and be competitive.  Tonight’s home game against Detroit is anything but a perfect setup for Orlando, and in fact, it’s a terrible spot.  The Magic are playing on back-to-back nights after winning in Miami last night; they scored the last five points to win 102-101.  Orlando will be playing their fourth game in five nights after winning back-to-back road games as underdogs.  Orlando has a negative point differential over their last five games despite going 3-2 in those games.  Detroit has a positive point differential over their last five games despite going 2-3 in those games.  There’s a lot of value on Detroit in this game, so we’ll back them on Tuesday night.   

9* Play PISTONS (-).

Utah has won four of their last five games, and they have gone 7-2 ATS over their last nine games overall.  However, Utah has played an extremely weak schedule during that span with games against Miami (2x), Orlando, Charlotte, and Philadelphia.  When the Jazz played good to decent teams like New Orleans, San Antonio, and Washington, they lost.  Despite winning two of their last three games, Utah’s offense averaged just 90.3 points in those games.  They will be without Alec Burks tonight, and they won’t be competitive if their offense scores less than 100 points in this game.  Utah concluded a 6-game road trip on December 22nd, and then they had five days off and played at home last night which was an 88-71 win over a terrible Philadelphia team.  Now the Jazz have to take to the road and face a Los Angeles team off an ugly home loss to the Raptors yesterday afternoon.        

Los Angeles lost to Toronto 110-98 on Sunday, but the Raptors have a potent offense that can trade points with the Clippers, especially when Chris Paul has an off game like he did.  Paul scored just 10 points after shooting 25% (3-12) from the field.  Tonight’s matchup versus Utah presents Los Angeles with an excellent opportunity to bounce back with a big win, especially since Paul holds a huge matchup edge over Utah’s guards.  The Clippers lost for just the fourth time at home this season, and they’ve been strong when playing at home off a previous home loss.  Los Angeles is a perfect 3-0 while winning by an average of 15 points per game.  The Clippers already own two wins over the Jazz this season, including a 16-point road win last month.  We expect a big effort from Los Angeles, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.    

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Orlando has more wins (11) than Charlotte (10), but the Hornets are a significantly better team.  The Magic have a weak roster by NBA standards, and they need perfect setups to win and be competitive.  Tonight’s game in Charlotte is anything but a perfect setup for Orlando, and in fact, it’s a terrible spot.  The Magic led Cleveland for three quarters last night and they took a 4-point lead into the fourth quarter.  Orlando was then out-scored 27-14 over the final 12 minutes and lost 98-89.  The Magic shot 49.3% (36-73) from the field and 42.9% (9-21) from three-point land, and they still lost by 9 points even with Cleveland shooting just 41.2% (33-80) from the field and 26.7% (8-30) from three-point land.    

Charlotte also played and lost last night.  The Hornets got blown out in Oklahoma City by 23 points (98-75).  We lost on the Hornets, but we have no hesitation in backing Charlotte once again for all the same reasons.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but since getting healthier, the Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season.  Charlotte had won four straight games before last night’s loss, and they were 6-4 over their previous ten games.  Over their last five games, Charlotte is averaging 101.2 points per game while giving up just 91.6 points per game.  To compare, Orlando is averaging just 92.6 points per game while giving up 99.8 points per game over their last five games.  Charlotte is the better team by a wide margin, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night.  

9* Play HORNETS (-).

Phoenix and Sacramento played last month with the Kings winning 114-112 in overtime.  That game only had 198 points scored at the end of regulation despite the teams playing at a fast pace.  The Suns and Kings combined to take 189 shots, and they had 47 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was terrible as Phoenix hit 42.9% (42-98) from the field and 32.3% (10-31) from three-point land.  Sacramento also hit 42.9% (39-91) from the field and 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land.  The teams were aggressive as they got to the free throw line 64 times, but they missed 13 of those attempts.  That game was played under defensive minded Sacramento head coach Mike Malone when the Kings weren’t looking to push the pace.

Sacramento has since fired Malone because management wants the team to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin.  In four games since the change, the Kings’ defense has allowed 441 points.  The Suns’ offense is in tremendous current form as they are averaging 109.5 points per game while shooting 48.4% from the field over their last four games.  Sacramento’s offense is also in good current form as they’ve scored 107, 108, and 108 points in their last three games.  Phoenix’s defense has been poor on the road this season as they are giving up 104.8 points per game.  Sacramento has a huge edge inside the paint with DeMarcus Cousins, so the Kings will score a lot of easy baskets in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Suns and Kings on Friday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Charlotte is just 10-19 on the season, but they have a good excuse for that poor record.  The Hornets dealt with a slew of injuries early on this season, and they had to face some of the best teams from the Western Conference during that stretch.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but since getting healthier, the Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season.  Charlotte has won four straight games, and they are 6-4 over their last ten games.  The Hornets have scored 104 points or more in their last four games, and their defense has held three of their last four opponents to 91 points or less.  

Oklahoma City has been a different team with both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook back on the court.  However, Durant injured his ankle five games ago, and the Thunder’s recent results have not been good.  Without Durant on the court, Oklahoma City is just 2-2 over their last four games with the two wins coming by just 1 and 8 points.  The Thunder played yesterday in San Antonio in a spotlight Christmas Day game and they won 114-106 after shooting 51.9% (42-81) from the field and 60% (9-15) from three-point land.  Five players scored 14 points or more in that game.  Off such a peak performance on a special day, we expect sharp regression from Oklahoma City tonight.  Charlotte is playing excellent basketball right now, so we’ll take the points with the Hornets in this game on Friday night.

9* Play HORNETS (+).

Golden State and Los Angeles both come into this game the same way.  The Warriors and Clippers are both playing terrific offense right now while their defenses have been terrible.  Golden State’s offense is averaging 114.6 points per game over their last five games on 48.7% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Golden State’s defense is giving up 111.8 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 40.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Warriors are playing more small ball right now with Andrew Bogut out, and their defense has slipped 10 points per game, going from 93.6 to 103.6 points per game.  Things are not going to get any better in this game against a potent Clippers’ offense.         

Los Angeles has been all offense and no defense for the majority of the season, and it’s been magnified more recently.  The Clippers’ offense is averaging 107.2 points per game over their last five games.  Over the same span, the Clippers’ defense is giving up 108.6 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  Head coach Doc Rivers acknowledges his team’s defensive shortcomings: “Defensively, we have some things to fix that are fixable.”  The problem is the Clippers haven’t had time to practice as they will be playing their sixth game in nine nights while being on the road for three of those games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Clippers on Thursday night.      

10* Play OVER the total.

Washington comes into this game off back-to-back home losses to the Suns and Bulls, but we’re willing to forgive both of those poor efforts, especially the last game against Chicago.  The Wizards knocked the Bulls out of the playoffs last season, and Chicago was hell bent on avenging that series defeat.  With a healthy team on the court, the Bulls are one of the best teams in the league, so there’s no shame in losing to them.  The back-to-back losses ensure a peak effort from Washington in this game, especially since they are being featured on Christmas Day.  This game is huge for the Wizards as they want to showcase their talents to a national audience.  Washington already won on this court earlier this season when they beat the Knicks 98-83, so they’ll have plenty of confidence as well.  

The Knicks are a complete mess this season.  They come into this game with an awful 5-25 record, and they have a slew of players on the injured list.  New York’s transition to the triangle offense has been a wreck, and their inability to score consistently has put enormous pressure on their poor defense.  The Knicks are in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 104.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Washington has a terrific offense that is averaging 100.4 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Wizards are simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this early game on Thursday afternoon.         

9* Play WIZARDS (-).

Charlotte is just 9-19 on the season, but they have a good excuse for that poor record.  The Hornets dealt with a slew of injuries early on this season, and they had to face some of the best teams from the Western Conference during that stretch.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but since getting healthier, the Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season.  Charlotte has won three straight games, and they are 5-4 over their last nine games.  The Hornets have scored 104 points or more in their last four games, and their defense has held their last three opponents to 91 points or less.  

Milwaukee is 14-14 on the season, but the injury bug has hit them hard.  The Bucks lost Jabari Parker for the season last week, and Ersan Ilyasova (nose) and John Henson (foot) are also on the injury report for tonight’s game.  The Bucks are returning home off a 4-game road trip; six of their last seven games have been on the road.  Milwaukee is such a young team, and since they’ve had two days off since returning home, this is not a good spot, especially with the holiday this week.  The Bucks’ play has not been as sharp lately; they are just 4-7 SU over their last eleven games.  Milwaukee went just 1-10 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted spread as three of their four wins came by 5 points or less.  Charlotte is the better team despite what the records say, and since the Hornets are playing better basketball right now, we’ll take the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Atlanta is playing tremendous basketball right now.  The Hawks are 14-2 over their last sixteen games.  Atlanta’s offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored 231 points in their last two games.  The Hawks’ offensive ways will continue tonight against a poor Dallas defense.  The Mavericks have one of the worst perimeter defenses in the NBA, and Atlanta has the personnel to take full advantage of that weakness.  Dallas is allowing 103.5 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Mavericks have given up 102 points or more in 15 of their last 19 games, so the Hawks will easily eclipse the century mark tonight.       

Dallas just made a big trade to acquire Rajon Rondo from the Celtics.  Rondo is one of the best point guards in the league, and since Dallas has a slew of shooters, the Mavericks’ offense will continue to be the best in the NBA.  Dallas ranks #1 in offensive efficiency, but they played poorly in their last game.  Dallas scored 99 points after shooting just 43% (37-86) from the field and 34.6% (9-26) from three-point land.  That was just the fifth time this season (28 games) that Dallas scored less than 100 points.  Overall, Dallas is averaging 113.1 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field at home this season.  Atlanta gives up 100.2 points per game on the road, so the Mavericks will also eclipse the century mark with ease tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Hawks and Mavericks on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Los Angeles and Sacramento just played two weeks ago with the Lakers winning 98-95.  That game only had 193 points scored despite the teams playing at a fast pace.  The Lakers and Kings combined to take 166 shots, and they had 40 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was terrible as Los Angeles hit 39.6% (38-96) from the field and 20% (5-25) from three-point land.  The teams also combined to miss a whopping 21 free throws after getting 62 attempts from the charity stripe.  That game was played without Sacramento’s best player, DeMarcus Cousins, and also with former defensive minded head coach Mike Malone.  Tonight’s game sets up totally different, and it’s why we expect a high-scoring game.    

Sacramento has since fired Malone, and Cousins returned to the court a couple of games ago.  The Kings’ management wants the team to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin; they were playing a defensive style under former coach Malone.  In two games since the change, the Kings’ defense has allowed 212 points.  The Lakers’ offense is averaging 102.2 points per game this season, and playing at their preferred fast pace, we can expect Los Angeles to score north of the century mark.  Sacramento will have a huge edge inside the paint with Cousins on the court as the Lakers’ interior defense is atrocious.  Los Angeles is ranked 28th in the NBA in fast break points allowed (15.2 per game), so Sacramento’s new up-tempo offense will eclipse the century mark as well.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Lakers and Kings on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta comes into this game off one of the biggest wins in the NBA this season.  The Hawks crushed the Cavaliers in Cleveland by 29 points (127-98) on Wednesday night, and that game has been the talk for the last couple of days.  That’s not a good thing for Atlanta, and because of it, we expect a big regression tonight in Houston.  The Hawks shot an incredible 64.5% (49-76) from the field and 57.1% (16-28) from three-point land.  They also hit 81.2% (13-16) of their free throws.  Seven players scored 10 points or more, including three players on the second unit.  Atlanta played a perfect game, and it’s highly unlikely the Hawks will repeat a performance like that this season.  It should be noted that the team was without arguably their best player and point guard Jeff Teague; he will miss tonight’s game as well.    

Houston lost 99-90 at home to New Orleans on Thursday night.  However, the Rockets were in a tough spot for that game as they just won in overtime in Denver the night before.  We can easily excuse that loss by Houston, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially since they are playing on their home court once again.  The Rockets’ offense was terrible in that loss as they shot just 38.4% (33-86) from the field and 24% (6-25) from three-point land.  Houston will be more efficient tonight considering they’ll be facing an Atlanta defense that is allowing 100.5 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Houston is the better team in the better spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play ROCKETS (-).

Los Angeles is 14-4 over their last 18 games.  The Clippers have won ten of those games by double digits while going 11-3 ATS in their fourteen wins.  However, as impressive as that is, it’s also unsustainable, and we’ve seen some regression in their play over the last few games.  The Clippers are just 2-2 SU over their last four games with one of those wins coming by just 2 points over a shorthanded Indiana team.  This is a bad spot for the Clippers as well as they are making a one-game road trip to Denver, and a trip to the Rockies is not easy from Los Angeles.  The Clippers will have to fly right back as they host Milwaukee tomorrow night.  Head coach Doc Rivers hinted at resting his players, especially since the Clippers are playing their sixth game in ten days.  

Denver has lost three straight games, and seven of their last eight games overall.  However, four of those games were on the road, and they were also playing without Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari.  Both of those guys returned on Wednesday night, and Denver played much better even though they lost 115-111 in overtime to Houston.  The Nuggets are playing their third straight home game, and since they’ve lost the last two, we expect a strong effort tonight.  The home team has dominated this series, winning seven consecutive meetings and eight of the last nine overall.  The Nuggets are averaging 106.2 points per game at home this season, and they will score easily on a Los Angeles defense that is allowing 100.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Friday night.  

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Milwaukee has been playing good basketball this season, but unfortunately, the injury bug has hit them hard.  The Bucks lost Jabari Parker for the season on Monday night, and Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle), Ersan Ilyasova (nose), and John Henson (foot) are all on the injury report for tonight’s game in Sacramento.  The Bucks played last night in Portland, and they held a 2-point lead going into the fourth quarter.  But they ran out of gas, and ended up losing 104-97.  Milwaukee shot 48.1% (37-77) from the field and 36.8% (7-19) from three-point land in that game, but we do not expect a repeat of that effort on back-to-back nights.  The Bucks were crushed on the boards 52-32, and that weakness will be present once again tonight against the Kings.       

Sacramento stunned just about everybody when they fired head coach Mike Malone earlier this week.  The Kings are mired in a 2-9 slump, but those losses were accrued without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, who was out with viral meningitis.  Cousins is slated to return tonight, and his presence makes the Kings a much better team.  Sacramento management wants the Kings to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin, and tonight is a good opportunity to do that.  Milwaukee is extremely vulnerable inside the paint right now because of their injuries, and the Kings have a very good interior offense.  Sacramento is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, and they’ll hold a huge edge in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Thursday night.   

9* Play KINGS (-).

Houston and Denver just played on Saturday night with the Rockets winning 108-96.  That game had 204 points scored despite horrendous shooting by both teams.  The teams played at an extremely fast pace in that game as they combined to take 184 shots, and they had 62 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was terrible as Denver hit 37.5% (36-96) from the field and 25% (7-28) from three-point land.  Houston shot just 44.3% (39-88) from the field and 29.4% (10-34) from three-point land.  The teams also combined to miss a whopping 23 free throws after getting 60 attempts from the charity stripe.    

Denver’s offense has scored just 96 and 91 points in their last two games, but the Nuggets will have Danilo Gallinari back on the court tonight.  He provides instant offense for Denver off the bench.  Overall, the Nuggets are averaging 105.8 points per game at home this season, and they will score easily on a Houston defense that is in poor current form.  The Rockets’ defense is allowing 103.4 points per game over their last five games.  Houston’s offense is in good current form as they are averaging 105.6 points per game over their last five games.  The Nuggets’ defense has been poor all season as they are allowing 104.6 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land.  We expect another fast-paced game, but with efficient offense this time, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Rockets and Nuggets on Wednesday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma City is in excellent current form.  The Thunder have won six consecutive games, and they are 8-1 SU over their past nine games.  They’ve won seven of those eight games by 9 points or more with their average win coming by 15.1 points per game.  Oklahoma City is a completely different team now than they were earlier in the season when both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were out with injuries.  The Thunder’s seasonal stats are bad, but they are meaningless, especially their offensive numbers.  Over their past five games, Oklahoma City is averaging 107.2 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field.  The Thunder’s offense will generate a lot of easy baskets tonight, especially since the Kings are changing their style of play.

Sacramento stunned just about everybody when they fired head coach Mike Malone yesterday after losing at home versus Detroit on Saturday night.  That loss was the Kings’ eighth defeat over their past ten games, but they’ve been playing without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, who is out with viral meningitis.  His absence makes the Kings extremely vulnerable, so the recent bad results are not the coach’s fault.  Sacramento management wants the Kings to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin; they were playing a defensive style under former coach Malone.  Oklahoma City has too much offensive firepower for the Kings right now, and playing at a fast pace will only create more separation for the Thunder.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now, so we’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City on Tuesday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Boston and Philadelphia played last month with the Celtics winning 101-90.  The total on that game closed at 213.5 and for some reason the posted total on tonight’s game is a full 7 points lower.  The first meeting was played at a fast-pace as the teams combined to take 169 shots, and they had 41 attempts from three-point land.  Boston plays at the fastest pace in the NBA with an efficient offense and a terrible defense.  Philadelphia plays at the third fastest pace in the NBA with a terrible defense.  Both teams have the perfect combinations for high-scoring games, and we expect more points tonight than there were in the first meeting.

Philadelphia’s offense broke out in their last game as they scored 115 points on a very good Memphis defense.  The Sixers shot 48.8% (40-82) from the field while hitting 11 three’s and getting to the free throw line 34 times.  Philadelphia is playing aggressively on offense, and we expect that to continue tonight.  Boston’s offense is averaging 104.2 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field this season.  The Celtics’ defense is allowing 108.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field and 41.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  The teams combined to score 100 points inside the paint in the first meeting, and that’s a clear indication that easy baskets were scored in transition.  We expect a fast-paced game with efficient offense, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Celtics and Sixers on Monday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Detroit is just 4-19 on the season, and my preseason projection of the Piston being a much improved team looks wrong.  However, Detroit was missing a key piece of that expected improvement as Jodie Meeks missed the first 22 games of the season with a back injury.  Meeks returned to the court last night in Phoenix, and we saw a significantly better Detroit team on display, especially their offense.  The Pistons scored 105 points after shooting 47.6% (40-84) from the field with six different players scoring 11 points or more.  Detroit played at a much faster pace as well as they took 84 shots in the game.  That allowed them to get a lot of easy baskets; the Pistons scored 60 points inside the paint.  Detroit will have similar success tonight, especially since the Kings will be without their best player.

Sacramento is a team we’ve used several times this season.  However, the Kings are playing without DeMarcus Cousins who is out with viral meningitis.  His absence makes the Kings extremely vulnerable, especially inside the paint.  That’s not a good thing considering the Pistons have one of the best frontcourts in the NBA with Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond.  They combined for 35 points and 22 rebounds last night, and those totals should be even greater tonight with Cousins not on the court.  Sacramento is just 2-7 over their last nine games, including 2-6 without Cousins on the court.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now, so we’ll take the points with Detroit on Saturday night.   

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Charlotte is just 6-15 SU on the season, but they have a good excuse for that poor record.  The Hornets dealt with a slew of injuries early on this season, and they had to face some of the best teams from the Western Conference during that stretch.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but they’ve won their last two games since getting healthier.  Charlotte got Gary Neal back for the Knicks game, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist returned in Wednesday night’s 96-87 win over the Celtics.  The Hornets are well-rested as this will be just their fourth game over the past thirteen days.  Charlotte will be focused tonight, especially since they’ll be playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

Memphis is 17-4 SU on the season, and there’s really nothing negative to say about the team.  However, the Grizzlies may overlook Charlotte because of their poor record, and the fact that Memphis has just played a stretch of games against some of the elite teams in the league.  The Grizzlies just faced the Clippers, Blazers, Spurs, and Mavericks recently.  Those games are much more important for Memphis, especially since those are the teams the Grizzlies will be battling for playoff positioning.  Memphis also has a road game on deck tomorrow night.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive grinder just like November’s 71-69 win by Memphis.  We’ll take the big points with the undervalued Hornets in this game on Friday night.    

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Boston is struggling this season.  The Celtics are 7-12 on the season, including an ugly 2-5 record on the road.  Boston’s 3-game winning streak was snapped on Monday night when they lost 133-132 to Washington in double overtime.  The game had to take a lot out of the Celtics, especially since they had to rally from a 16-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter.  Boston is playing on tired legs as this will be their third game in four nights, and also their sixth game in nine nights.  The Celtics also have a terrible defense, especially on the road where they are allowing 110.3 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land.      

Charlotte has also struggled this season; the Hornets only have 5 wins.  However, Charlotte has dealt with a slew of injuries while facing some of the best teams from the Western Conference.  Charlotte snapped their recent 10-game losing streak with a win over the Knicks on Friday night.  The Hornets dominated that game as they led by 18 points in the fourth quarter while their offense scored 103 points on 47.7% shooting from the field.  Charlotte got Gary Neal back for that game, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is slated to return tonight.  The Hornets are also well-rested as this will be just their third game over the last eleven days, and they are playing an opponent that they are better than.  Charlotte holds a significant scheduling edge for this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Hornets in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play HORNETS (-).

Los Angeles comes into this game on an 8-game winning streak, and they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games.  The Clippers have won nine of those games by double digits while going 9-1 ATS in their ten wins.  However, as impressive as that is, it’s also unsustainable.  The Clippers will inevitably go on a losing streak against the spread, and their last game may be the start.  Los Angeles beat Phoenix 121-120 in overtime while failing to cover the 7.5-point line.  The Clippers were actually lucky to win that game as they needed a rare Blake Griffin three-pointer to get the job done.  Los Angeles must now travel to the opposite coast and begin a 3-game mini road trip.  This is not a good spot for the Clippers, especially since they are laying a significant amount of points.   

Indiana is not off to a good start this season.  The Pacers are just 7-14 on the season, including a 4-6 record at home.  Indiana was up against it before the season started as they lost two of their best players to injury, and other role players went down when the season began.  Things are getting better for the Pacers as David West has returned to the court.  Indiana is on a 5-game losing streak, but four of those games came on the road.  The Pacers lost to Atlanta in their return home, and off such an ugly loss, we can expect Indiana to bring their best effort tonight.  The Pacers will be playing just their second game over a 5-day span, so they are well-rested.  Indiana will hit the road again on Friday for a game in Toronto, and that makes tonight’s home game extremely important.  We’ll take the points with Indiana in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play PACERS (+).

Milwaukee and Oklahoma City played last month with the Bucks winning 85-78.  That was an extremely low-scoring game, but the teams were different then, especially Oklahoma City.  The Thunder did not have Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant for that game.  Both will be on the court tonight, and we expect a higher scoring game.  The teams played at a fast pace in that earlier meeting as they combined to take 168 shots, and they had 35 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was terrible as Oklahoma City hit 33.3% (29-87) from the field and 30% (6-20) from three-point land.  Milwaukee shot just 40.7% (33-81) from the field and 20% (3-15) from three-point land.  The teams also missed 13 free throws combined.    

Oklahoma City’s offense is much better now that their two best players and scorers are back on the court.  The Thunder are averaging 101 points per game over their last five games, and they will score easily on a Milwaukee defense that is in poor current form.  The Bucks’ defense is allowing 109 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Overall on the road this season, Milwaukee is giving up 102.7 points per game.  The Bucks’ offense is in tremendous form as they’ve scored 102 points or more in seven consecutive games.  We expect a fast-paced game with efficient offense, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Bucks and Thunder on Tuesday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Boston and Washington just played yesterday with the Celtics winning 101-93.  Boston led that game wire-to-wire as they never trailed and led by as many as 25 points.  We do not expect that to happen again, but we do expect another fast-paced game.  The teams combined to take 181 shots, and they had 44 attempts from three-point land.  Boston plays at the fastest pace in the NBA with an efficient offense and a terrible defense.  That’s the perfect combination for high-scoring games; Boston is 12-6 to the Over this season.  The Celtics’ offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 101 points or more in four straight games.     

Washington’s offense was not good yesterday.  The Wizards shot just 36.6% (34-93) from the field while scoring just 28 points inside the paint.  With a return to their home court where they are 9-2 this season, we expect a much better offensive performance by Washington tonight.  The Wizards’ offense is averaging 102.2 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Boston’s defense is allowing 106.5 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We expect a fast-paced game with efficient offense, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Celtics and Wizards on Monday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

New York is a complete mess right now.  The Knicks come into this game with an ugly 4-16 record as their personnel and style of play changes have simply been out of sync all season.  New York had a spotlight home game last night against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Knicks were playing their third straight home game, and they had a day of rest to get ready for that game.  New York played well as they took a 5-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.  But the Knicks got out-scored 22-14 over the final 12 minutes and lost 90-87.  Now they must wheel right back and take to the road while playing with a hangover from last night’s loss.  This is simply a terrible spot for the Knicks. 

Charlotte is also struggling this season; the Hornets only have 4 wins just like the Knicks.  However, Charlotte’s situation is much different.  The Hornets are a playoff-caliber team, but they’ve dealt with a slew of injuries while facing some of the best teams from the Western Conference.  Their recent losing streak is quite understandable, so we can easily give them a pass.  Charlotte will get Gary Neal back on the court tonight, and his presence instantly gives the offense a major boost.  The Hornets are also well-rested as this will be just their second game over the last six days, and they are finally playing an opponent that they are better than.  Charlotte is also playing with revenge after losing 96-93 in New York back in early November.  The Hornets lost that game because they scored just 13 points in the fourth quarter.  Charlotte is the better team with motivation, and since they are catching the Knicks in a terrible situational spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hornets in this game on Friday night.

10* Play HORNETS (-).

Los Angeles comes into this game off a big win last night in Detroit.  The Lakers won that game 106-96 as 2-point underdogs; that was their second straight SU win when getting points.  Los Angeles shot 48.1% (39-81) from the field and 58.8% (10-17) from three-point land last night, but that was against a Detroit team that is simply a mess right now.  The Lakers are taking a major step-up in class tonight, especially on the defensive end of the court.  Los Angeles has struggled against strong defensive teams all season; the Lakers have losses by 13, 18, 23, and 21 points to the top four teams in defensive efficiency.  Los Angeles will face the Wizards who are ranked #5 in defensive efficiency this season, so the Lakers will be hard-pressed to match their offensive production, especially since they are playing on back-to-back nights.   

Washington is flying well under the radar so far this season.  The Wizards are 11-5 on the season, including a strong 7-2 at home.  Washington comes into this game with a day of rest, and this will be just their third game over the last seven days.  The Wizards hold a huge scheduling edge over Los Angeles in this game as the Lakers will be playing their fifth game over the last seven days.  Washington has a terrific defense, especially at home where they are only giving up 93.6 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field.  The Wizards have scored 102 points or more in three of their last five home games, and they will score at will on a Los Angeles defense that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency.  We expect Washington to control this game from start to finish, so we’ll lay the points with the Wizards on Wednesday night.             

10* Play WIZARDS (-).

Portland owns two wins over Denver already this season, one at home and one on the road.  The Trail Blazers won in Denver three weeks ago, but they were 2.5-point underdogs.  Now they are 3-point favorites for some reason, and that creates a lot of value on the Nuggets.  Portland’s win in Denver was the start of a 9-game winning streak for the Blazers; it was also part of a 10-2 ATS run.  Since snapping their winning streak, the Blazers are 0-1-1 ATS with their lone SU win coming against a struggling Minnesota team that owns just four wins on the season.  

Denver is in tremendous current form right now.  The Nuggets have won eight of their last ten games while going 6-3-1 ATS, including a SU win as a home underdog.  Denver was not in good form when they hosted Portland as they were just 1-5 SU overall while riding a 5-game losing streak.  Denver has actually played good basketball against Portland despite the two losses.  The Nuggets have out-scored Portland 104-74 inside the paint.  Denver also got to the free throw line 63 times while Portland had just 43 free throw attempts in the two games.  Denver is playing with legitimate revenge, so we’ll take the points with the Nuggets in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

Dallas has one of the best offenses in the NBA.  The Mavericks are averaging 109.1 points per game on 48% shooting from the field.  Dallas is ranked #1 overall in offensive efficiency as they’ve scored 100 points or more in 15 of their 18 games this season.  Dallas has four players averaging double digits in points scored, and eight players averaging better than 7 points per game.  The Mavericks come into this game rested as they had last night off and they also gave Dirk Nowitzki the previous game off to rest.  Dallas has scored on Chicago’s defense in previous games; the Mavericks scored 100 and 105 points on the Bulls in two of the last three meetings.        

Chicago has played a different style of basketball this season.  The Bulls are more focused on offense than defense which is opposite of how they played in the past.  Chicago now has offensive options at all five positions, and with Derrick Rose back from injury, the Bulls’ offense is just going to get better.  Chicago is averaging 101.1 points per game this season, and they rank #12 in overall offensive efficiency.  The Bulls will be facing a terrible Dallas defense that is allowing 100.1 points per game this season.  Chicago’s defense is in poor form as they’ve allowed 100 points per game on over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Mavericks and Bulls on Tuesday night.     

10* Play OVER the total.

We lost going against Los Angeles on Saturday night, but we have no hesitation in playing against the Clippers once again tonight.  Los Angeles is once again in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this home game against Minnesota tonight.  The Clippers are playing their first game at home after a 7-game road trip; this is will also be their sixth game in nine nights.  The Clippers had a very successful trip, winning six of their seven games, including four straight blowouts that they won by a combined 60 points.  Los Angeles’ first game back at home is less than an ideal spot, and this is an easy game for them to overlook, especially since they are double digit favorites against a Minnesota team that is just 4-11 on the season.     

Minnesota has struggled since losing a bunch of players to injury.  However, the Timberwolves’ young players are trying to prove themselves, and they’ll bring a good effort tonight against a marquee team like the Clippers.  Despite their poor record, Minnesota will be a double digit underdog for just the fourth time this season.  The Timberwolves’ offense has been able to score on the road this season as they are averaging 101.9 points per game.  A good offensive team is always dangerous in this pointspread range, especially when facing a disinterested opponent.  We’ll take the big points with Minnesota in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Los Angeles is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Utah tonight.  The Clippers are playing the final game of their 7-game road trip, and this is will also be their fifth game in seven nights.  Los Angeles has to play on a back-to-back set with tonight’s game coming in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Clippers have had a very successful trip, winning five of their six games so far, including last night’s 102-85 blowout win in Houston.  The Clippers will return home after this game, and they’ll have a full three days off before their next game, so this is an easy game for them to overlook, especially since it comes against a Utah team that is just 5-11 on the season.     

Utah has had a full two days off to prepare for this game against Los Angeles, so the Jazz hold a huge scheduling edge.  Utah comes in on a 4-game losing streak and that ensures we’ll get a focused effort from the home team tonight.  Utah has played competitively at home this season as three of their five wins have come on their court.  The Jazz have shown a strong ability to bounce back strong off a SU loss this season.  Utah is 7-3 ATS when playing off a loss, including a strong 3-1 SU and ATS record when playing at home off a road loss.  The Jazz have one major weakness, and that is keeping opponents off the offensive glass.  Utah’s blowout losses this season have come against strong offensive rebounding teams.  Los Angeles is the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA as they rank 30th out of 30 teams.  With the Clippers in a terrible scheduling spot, we’ll take the points with Utah in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play JAZZ (+).

Phoenix and Denver just played on Wednesday night with the Suns winning 120-112 on their home court.  The two teams will play tonight in a quick turnaround rematch in Denver, and we expect a different outcome.  Phoenix is in a tough scheduling spot for this game.  The Suns are coming off a 6-game road trip that began on the West Coast in Los Angeles, travelled thru the East Coast, and ended in Canada.  The Suns went 4-2 on that trip, and then beat Denver in their first game home.  After celebrating Thanksgiving yesterday, the Suns take to the road once again and have to play in the thin air and altitude of Denver before returning home for two more games.  This is one of those games in which it’s easy to envision the Suns bringing less than their best effort, especially since they just beat Denver two days ago.

Denver is playing much better basketball now than they were earlier in the season.  The Nuggets are 6-2 over their last eight games; they went just 1-6 over their previous seven games.  Denver returns home off that 8-point loss in Phoenix, so we expect a strong performance tonight.  The Nuggets out-scored the Suns 25-23 in fast break points, and they also out-scored Phoenix 48-44 inside the paint.  Denver also got to the free throw line 34 times in that game compared to just 21 free throw attempts for Phoenix.  The Suns won that game from beyond the arc as they shot 52% (13-25) from three-point land while one of their bench players, Gerald Green, scored 24 points in 26 minutes of action.  It’s highly unlikely both of those will repeat tonight.  Denver is catching Phoenix in a terrible spot, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Friday night.             

9* Play NUGGETS.

Washington and Cleveland just played on Friday night with the Wizards winning 91-78 on their home court.  That game was not even that close as Washington simply dominated from start to finish.  The Wizards shot 48.8% (41-84) from the field, and they got a monster game from John Wall who scored 28 points.  However, things are much different for the rematch tonight in Cleveland.  The Wizards went into that first meeting rested while playing their fourth straight home game.  Washington also had Nene on the court; he scored 10 points in 28 minutes.  Nene’s biggest asset is defense, and he completely took Kevin Love out of the game while holding him to just 8 points.  Nene will not play tonight because of injury, and his absence completely changes the complexion of this game.

Cleveland has struggled this season; there’s no denying that fact.  But this is a big revenge game for the Cavs after getting embarrassed on national TV by the Wizards just five days ago.  “We just got to bring it. They had us on our heels all game last time,” LeBron James said.  Cleveland has been a much better team at home this season despite having just a 3-4 record on their court.  The Cavs are shooting 47.6% from the field at home compared to 42.0% on the road, and they are shooting 41.6% from three-point land at home compared to 30.4% on the road.  Cleveland is off a confidence-building 106-74 win over Orlando on Monday night while Washington is off a heartbreaking 106-102 home loss to Atlanta last night.  Cleveland is in a good spot to get a revenge win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Sacramento is a much improved team this season.  The Kings come into tonight’s game in New Orleans with an 8-5 record.  Head coach Mike Mallone is a defensive mastermind, and in his second season, the Kings’ defense is significantly better.  Sacramento ranks 13th in defensive efficiency despite playing elite offensive teams like the Warriors, Blazers, Clippers, Suns and Mavericks.  The Kings just hosted the Pelicans a week ago and lost by 6 points.  However, Sacramento out-scored New Orleans in three of four quarters and held a 10-point margin.  The Kings scored 60 of their 100 points inside the paint, and with the Pelicans missing one of their better interior defenders, Sacramento will hold a big advantage inside once again tonight.

New Orleans is a pretty good team, but the Pelicans are dealing with some key injury losses.  Eric Gordon hurt his shoulder in their last game, and he will be out indefinitely.  Gordon makes the Pelicans’ offense go, and when he missed time last season, we saw a sharp decline in their play.  New Orleans is also missing Omer Asik, and his absence creates a big hole inside the paint.  With the loss of Gordon and Asik, the Pelicans’ rotation is completely turned upside down, and that’s not a good thing considering New Orleans has one of the worst benches in the NBA.  New Orleans’ defense is not in good form as they’ve given up 100 points or more in five of their last seven games.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.8% from the field.  We’ll take the points with Sacramento in this game on Tuesday night. 

10* Play KINGS (+).

Los Angeles is off an ugly 107-91 loss in Memphis last night.  The Clippers were terrible on both ends of the court; they scored 21 points or less in three of four quarters while giving up 26 points or more in three of four quarters.  Overall, Los Angeles shot just 41.6% (32-77) from the field and 28% (7-25) from three-point land.  Off the loss and ugly performance, we expect the Clippers to bounce back strong tonight.  Los Angeles has shown a strong ability to play well off a loss this season, and in fact the Clippers are a perfect 4-0 in this situation.  Los Angeles also catches the perfect opponent at the perfect time to get another win on the season.

Charlotte is a team we like going forward, but right now, the Hornets are struggling mightily.  Charlotte has lost five consecutive games and seven of their last eight games overall.  The Hornets have a slew of injuries, including their best defensive player, Michael Kidd-Gilchrest.  Charlotte is also off a heartbreaking 94-93 loss last night in Miami after they blew a 5-point lead going into the fourth quarter.  The Hornets rallied from a 9-point halftime deficit, so that game took a lot out of Charlotte, especially since they are a shorthanded team.  Los Angeles is the much better team, and in a focused spot, we’ll lay the points with the Clippers on Monday night.             

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Cleveland lost for us on Wednesday night when San Antonio beat them 92-90.  But we have no hesitation in backing the Cavaliers once again tonight.  The Cavaliers led for the majority of that game, and the Spurs simply made the plays at the end to win.  Cleveland led by as many as 11 points while San Antonio’s biggest lead of the game was only 6 points.  The Cavaliers’ offense did not play up to their level as they shot just 44.6% (37-83) from the field.  Cleveland wasn’t aggressive enough either as they had just 13 free throw attempts in the entire game.  LeBron James and Kevin Love both had off nights as they combined to scored just 25 points on 34.5% (10-29) shooting from the field.  That duo attempted just 3 total free throws.  Cleveland scored just 97 points in their previous loss, and off back-to-back bad offensive games, we expect the Cavaliers’ offense to explode tonight.  Cleveland has scored 100 points or more in six of their ten games so far this season. 

Washington is 7-3 on the season, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule so far.  The Wizards own wins over Orlando (2x), New York, Milwaukee, Indiana (2x), and Detroit.  Those five teams are a combined 23-39 on the season with only one team, Milwaukee, having a winning record at 7-5.  The Wizards’ defense is not in good current form as they’ve given up 103 points or more in three of their last five games.  Overall this season, Washington has allowed 90 points or more in nine of their ten games, and those games were against weak offensive teams.  Cleveland has one of the best offenses in the league, so the Wizards will be hard-pressed to keep them under 100 points in this game, especially since the Cavaliers are off back-to-back poor performances.  We’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Friday night.             

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Cleveland comes into this game off back-to-back losses in which they scored just 90 and 97 points.  The Cavaliers’ offense is too good to play another clunker, and since they are off two poor performances, we expect the offense to explode in this game.  Cleveland’s offense did not play up to their level in their last game as they shot just 44.6% (37-83) from the field.  Cleveland wasn’t aggressive enough either as they had just 13 free throw attempts in the entire game.  LeBron James and Kevin Love both had off nights as they combined to scored just 25 points on 34.5% (10-29) shooting from the field.  That duo attempted just 3 total free throws.  Cleveland has scored 100 points or more in six of their ten games so far this season, and they’ll eclipse the century mark once again tonight.     

Washington’s defense is not in good current form as they’ve given up 103 points or more in three of their last five games.  Overall this season, Washington has allowed 90 points or more in nine of their ten games, and those games were against weak offensive teams.  They’ve given up 103 points or more in four games.  Cleveland has one of the best offenses in the league, so the Wizards will be hard-pressed to keep them under 100 points in this game, especially since the Cavaliers are off back-to-back poor performances.  Washington also has a strong offense, and this game will feature two up and coming point guards, John Wall and Kyrie Irving, who will be looking to showcase their talents in this nationally televised game.  We expect a fast pace and efficient offensive production in what will be a high-scoring game between the Cavaliers and Wizards on Friday night.      

9* Play OVER the total.

San Antonio has been up and down this season.  The Spurs are obviously focused on just getting thru the regular season with a healthy team with an eye towards the playoffs.  San Antonio has already started to sit players in certain spots, and while we don’t expect that to be the case in this game, it certainly shows the mindset they have in navigating thru the regular season.  San Antonio is just 6-4 overall, including a 3-3 record on the road.  The Spurs’ offense is averaging just 92.7 points per game on the road while only averaging 41.5% shooting from the field this season.  San Antonio will need to increase their scoring by a big margin if they want to be competitive tonight as Cleveland averages 108 points per game on their home court.   

Cleveland hasn’t started this season as most expected.  The Cavaliers are just 5-4 overall, including a 2-2 record at home.  Cleveland does come into this game off a 106-97 home loss to Denver in their last game.  The Cavaliers shot just 43% (34-79) from the field; it was just the third time this season Cleveland was held to less than 100 points.  Cleveland has bounced back strong off losses this season; they are 2-1 SU and ATS with their lone loss coming on a back-to-back set when playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  This is a much bigger game for Cleveland, especially since they are coming off an ugly loss.  We’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers on Wednesday night.             

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Houston and Memphis have the two best records in the NBA.  The Rockets and Grizzlies both come into this game with 9-1 records, so this should be a good, competitive game on Monday night.  Houston comes in off an ugly 69-65 win at Oklahoma City last night.  The Rockets’ offense was terrible as they shot just 28.7% (23-80) from the floor and 20% (7-35) from three-point land.  Houston was also terrible from the free throw line, hitting only 53.3% (16-30).  That was Houston’s worst offensive game with the current group of players they have, and off such an awful performance, we expect the Rockets to bounce back with a strong offensive showing tonight.   

Memphis’ offense comes into this game in good current form.  The Grizzlies have scored 313 points in their last three games, and there’s no reason they won’t continue their scoring ways.  Memphis has strong seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing offenses.  Memphis has played five opponents with efficient offenses, and the Grizzlies gave up and average of 97 points per game to those opponents.  Those five games also had an average of 200.6 points per game scored.  Houston also has strong seasonal numbers on defense.  But they’ve also played mostly bad offensive teams.  In four games against efficient offenses, the Rockets have allowed 93.8 points per game with those games averaging 197.8 points scored.  Houston likes to play at a fast pace, and Memphis has shown a willingness to play up-tempo against quick teams this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Rockets and Grizzlies on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Orlando is playing better basketball than expected so far this season.  The Magic come into this game with a respectable 4-6 record, including back-to-back wins.  However, Orlando is still one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Magic’s roster is not NBA caliber, and they are simply overachieving right now.  Orlando is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Washington tonight.  The Magic will be playing their fourth game in five nights while on a back-to-back set with this being their third road game since Tuesday night.  Orlando also rallied back from a 13-point deficit last night which was ignited by the return of Victor Oladipo who scored 13 points in 25 minutes off the bench.  That game was at home, and with this game coming on the road, we expect regression from Orlando tonight.  

Washington is flying well under the radar so far this season.  The Wizards are 6-2 on the season, including a perfect 3-0 at home.  Washington comes into this game with two full days of rest as this will be just their second game of the week.  The Wizards hold a huge scheduling edge over Orlando in this game, so the Wizards will be fresh while the Magic will be fatigued.  Washington has a terrific defense that is giving up just 96.9 points per game on 43.8% shooting from the field.  The Wizards rank 6th in defensive efficiency, and they will be facing an Orlando offense that ranks 25th in offensive efficiency.  We expect Washington to control this game from start to finish, so we’ll lay the points with the Wizards on Saturday night.             

9* Play WIZARDS (-).

Charlotte is a team we expected improvement from this season.  The Hornets are now in head coach Steve Clifford’s second season, and they added some good players to the young core they already had.  The Hornets come into tonight’s game with just a 3-5 SU record, but they’ve played a tough slate of opposing defenses.  Charlotte has faced the Grizzlies, Bucks, Hawks, and Blazers who all rank in the top 12 in defensive efficiency.  Despite that, only one of Charlotte’s five losses this season has come by more than 9 points.  The Hornets have a solid defense as well as they rank #11 in defensive efficiency so far.

Phoenix comes in off a 112-104 home win over Brooklyn on Wednesday night.  The Suns trailed throughout that game, and at one point they were down by 19 points.  Phoenix made a big comeback after out-scoring the Nets 63-41 in the second half.  That win has Phoenix at 5-3 SU on the season, but two of their wins came against the awful Lakers.  Phoenix was a spread machine last season, but the Suns are just 3-4-1 ATS this season.  Phoenix has a good offense, but their defense has not been good this year as they are allowing 103.4 points per game.  Charlotte is a scrappy team, so we’ll take the points with the Hornets in this game on Friday night.  

9* Play HORNETS (+).