Portland is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Denver tonight.  The Blazers played at home last night, and they needed a big comeback to beat Charlotte.  They out-scored the Hornets 27-15 in the fourth quarter to win by 2 points (102-100), and off such a draining comeback, the Blazers will not have their legs as they have to play this game in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Portland is also playing their third game in four nights, and since they have two days off after this game before a 3-game home stand, this is an easy game for the Blazers to simply go thru the motions.

Denver has not played good basketball this season.  The Nuggets are just 1-5 SU on the season with their lone win coming in their season opener.  However, Denver has played much better in their three home games as they beat Detroit while losing to Sacramento by 5 points (110-105) and Cleveland by 9 points (110-101).  Denver has had two full days of rest since playing on Sunday in Portland.  The Nuggets lost that game 116-100, but Denver out-scored Portland 56-30 inside the paint.  The Blazers were hot from outside as they hit 51.6% (16-31) from three-point land.  Denver also got to the free throw line 30 times; Portland had just 14 free throw attempts.  Denver played a winning game, so in this rematch, we’ll lay the points with the Nuggets, especially since they are in an advantageous scheduling spot.         

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Utah has alternated wins and losses over their last seven games, and they come into tonight’s game off a loss in Indiana.  The Jazz are 3-1 SU and ATS off a loss this season, so they’ve shown an ability to bounce back strong off a loss.  Utah has a lot of good, young talent that plays hard each and every game.  The Jazz have one major weakness, and that is keeping opponents off the offensive glass.  Utah’s blowout losses this season have come against strong offensive rebounding teams; the Pacers held a whopping 20-8 edge on second-chance points on Monday night.  The Jazz get a big class relief for tonight’s game as Atlanta is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the NBA as they rank 28th out of 30 teams.  Utah’s biggest weakness will be a non-factor in this game.     

Atlanta is just 3-3 on the season despite playing a very weak schedule so far.  The Hawks own two wins over the Knicks and a win over the Pacers; those are two of the worst teams in the East.  All three of Atlanta’s wins have come by 10 points or less with two of their wins coming by 7 points or less.  The Hawks are not built to blow teams out, and that is especially true for this game since Atlanta will be without starter DeMarre Carroll and second unit player Mike Scott due to injury.  The Hawks have a limited rotation, and it will be altered tonight.  Utah head coach Quin Snyder was an Atlanta assistant last season, and his job was to scout the Hawks’ opposition.  That means he knows the Hawks’ strengths and weaknesses better than anyone, and that gives Snyder and the Jazz a huge edge in this game.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Utah on Wednesday night.

9* Play JAZZ (+).

Sacramento's guard Darren Collison has been downgraded to doubtful for this game tonight due to a shoulder injury, however the pointspread has now risen a full point from +6.5 to +7.5 because of the news, so the Kings present solid value, especially considering Dallas is a poor defensive team.  Sacramento was a team we expected improvement from last season, and we had a lot of success playing on the Kings in certain situations.  The main reason was the presence of new head coach Mike Mallone who is a defensive mastermind.  Now in Mallone’s second season, we expect the Kings to improve more, especially on the defensive end.  The Kings come into tonight’s game with a 5-2 record despite playing a tough schedule that included the Warriors, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets twice.  Sacramento ranks #8 in defensive efficiency despite playing three teams ranked in the top ten in offensive efficiency.  The Kings come in off a loss in Oklahoma City in their last game, but they were in a letdown spot for that game, so we can forgive that result.

Dallas comes in off a 105-96 home loss to Miami on Sunday.  That was the Mavericks second loss over their past three games, so they are not in the best of form.  Overall, Dallas is just 4-3 on the season with two of their wins coming by just 5 point each.  The Mavericks have a good offense, but their defense is terrible as they rank 26th in defensive efficiency despite playing a slew of weak offensive teams.  Dallas is allowing 102.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field.  At home, the Mavericks’ defense has been even worse as they are giving up 106.7 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field.  Sacramento has played the better basketball this season, so we’ll take the points with the Kings in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play KINGS (+).

Detroit is 2-4 SU and an ugly 0-6 ATS this season.  However, the Pistons were a market favorite coming into this season, and the posted pointspreads on their game reflected that.  Despite winning just 29 games last season, Detroit has been a favorite in four of their six games this season.  The Pistons have been underdogs just twice, and those games were on the road in their first two games of the year.  After recent results, the Pistons are now installed as big underdogs for the first time this season, and the line presents good value to back Detroit.  I still expect Detroit to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season despite their slow start.  The results have yet to show on the scoreboard, but the Pistons’ play on the court has been much better than last season thanks to the presence of new head coach Stan Van Gundy.  

Chicago is certainly one of the best teams in the league when healthy, but the Bulls have had players going in and out of the lineup all season.  Chicago’s best player, Derrick Rose, is hit or miss to play with nagging ankle injuries; Rose did miss shoot-around this morning.  Regardless if Rose plays or not, this is a lot of points for Chicago to lay, especially since they have no cohesion right now.  The Bulls have just one blowout win this season, and that came way back in their season opener against the terrible Knicks.  Chicago’s wins since have come by 1, 8, 9, and 3 points.  Detroit has played in close games as their four losses have come by an average of 7.3 points per game.  This is a good spot for Detroit, so we’ll take the points with the Pistons on Monday night.

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Boston and Chicago both played and won in high-scoring shootouts last night.  The Celtics beat Indiana 101-98 while the Bulls beat Philadelphia 118-115.  Off those impressive games, both teams must wheel right back and play tonight in Chicago.  Not only is Boston playing on back-to-back nights, but they are also playing their third game in four nights.  The Celtics will also be without Rajon Rondo in this game; he is having a screw removed from his hand.  Boston’s Marcus Smart also suffered a bad ankle injury last night, and he will also miss this game.  The absence of those players really alters Boston’s rotation, and since the Celtics have three days off after this game, we do not expect them to come with a focused effort. 

Chicago is also in a terrible scheduling spot for tonight’s game against Boston.  The Bulls are playing on back-to-back nights with this also being their fourth game in five nights.  Chicago’s offense was terrific last night as they shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field and 50% (12-24) from three-point land.  The Bulls also got to the free throw line 34 times, hitting 76.5% (26-34) of their attempts.  Chicago’s defense was not up to par last night as they allowed the Sixers to score 39 points in the fourth quarter.  But that weak defensive effort was in correlation to the fast pace Philadelphia forced on Chicago.  The Bulls are now back at home where they will dictate a slower pace against the Celtics who are missing their floor general.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Celtics and Bulls on Saturday night.    

9* Play UNDER the total.

Sacramento was a team we expected improvement from last season, and we had a lot of success playing on the Kings in certain situations.  The main reason was the presence of new head coach Mike Mallone who is a defensive mastermind.  Now in Mallone’s second season, we expect the Kings to improve more, especially on the defensive end.  The Kings come into tonight’s game with a 4-1 record despite playing a tough schedule that included the Warriors, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets twice.  In three of those games, Sacramento held their opponent to 95, 94, and 92 points.  Overall, Sacramento ranks #9 in defensive efficiency despite playing three teams ranked in the top ten in offensive efficiency.  

Phoenix comes in off a 102-91 home loss to Memphis on Wednesday night.  The Suns are 3-2 on the season, but two of those wins have come against the awful Lakers.  Their other win only came by 5 points over the struggling Spurs.  Phoenix was a spread machine last season as the oddsmakers greatly undervalued the Suns all season.  But that’s not going to repeat itself this season; the Suns are just 2-2-1 ATS, including 1-2-1 ATS as a favorite.  Phoenix has a good offense, but their defense has not been good this season as they are allowing 102.8 points per game.  Sacramento has played the better basketball this season, so we’ll take the points with the Kings in this game on Friday night.  

10* Play KINGS (+).

The Los Angeles Clippers will be one of the best teams in the NBA at season’s end, but right now, they are simply playing themselves into the flow of the 82-game grind.  The Clippers have sort of gone thru the motions early on, and their play against mediocre opposition has been less than impressive.  Los Angeles only beat the Thunder by 3 points (93-90), the Lakers by 7 points (118-111), and the Jazz by 6 points (107-101).  The Clippers lost 98-92 at home to the Kings.  None of those four opponents are as good as the Warriors, and since the Clippers struggled with all of them, this game against Golden State doesn’t bode to well for Los Angeles.     

Golden State has played terrific basketball this season.  The Warriors are a perfect 3-0 with all three wins coming by 5 points or more.  Golden State and Los Angeles have played two common opponents, the Kings and Lakers.  As noted above, the Clippers struggled with those teams while the Warriors beat the Kings by 18 points (95-77) and beat the Lakers by 23 points (127-104).  Golden State’s defense has been tremendous, and right now they are ranked #1 in efficiency metrics.  To compare, the Clippers rank #15 in defensive efficiency, and since they’ve played the same opponents as the Warriors, the difference is significant.  Golden State is simply playing better basketball right now, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in this game on Wednesday night.      

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

Memphis comes into this game in Phoenix with a perfect 4-0 record.  The Grizzlies won three of those games with their defense, holding their opponents to 89 points or less.  However, the Pacers and Bobcats have the two worst offenses in the NBA right now while the Hornets were coming off back-to-back games in which they scored more than 100 points.  Memphis’ lone game against a good offense came at home against Minnesota, and the Grizzlies gave up 101 points and allowed the Timberwolves to play at their preferred fast pace.  Memphis will now face a very good Suns’ offense on their home court, and since Phoenix also plays at a fast pace, we expect Memphis’ defense to regress while playing an uptempo game.    

Phoenix is also off to a fast start this season as the Suns come into this game with a 3-1 record.  The Suns have played solid offensive basketball as they’ve scored 91 points or more in every game while averaging 104 points per game overall.  Phoenix played the Lakers last night in Los Angeles, so their defense will be forgiving tonight.  The Grizzlies’ offense plays inside-out, and since they hold a big edge in the paint, Memphis will score a lot of easy baskets in this game.  The Suns’ offense scored 91 points or more in all four meetings against Memphis last year, and since they are playing them early in the season, Phoenix will take advantage of their speed and also score a lot of easy baskets.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Grizzlies and Suns on Wednesday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Orlando is one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Magic’s roster is not NBA caliber, and they are simply going thru the motions this season in order to secure another high spot in the draft.  Orlando is 0-3 SU and ATS on the season.  They’ve allowed 101 points or more in every game while scoring 98 points or less in every game.  The Magic’s three games have all come against non-elite teams, but they’ve been blown out.  Orlando will face an elite tonight as Chicago is definitely one of the best teams in the league.  The Magic will be hard-pressed to be competitive in this game as there is simply a huge gap between these two teams.  

Chicago is 2-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in overtime to Cleveland.  Chicago’s last game was only a 1-point (106-105) win over Minnesota, but we can discount that result as the Bulls were playing the night after their overtime game with the Cavaliers, and they were also without Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson due to injury.  Chicago has had two days off since that game, and since both Rose and Gibson will be back on the court tonight, we expect a prime effort by the Bulls.  Chicago has a lot of depth with the additions of Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, Doug McDermott, and Nikola Mirotic.  Those guys bolster Chicago’s offense to hold and stretch-out leads which is important in this spread range.  We’ll lay the points with Chicago in this game on Tuesday night.       

10* Play BULLS (-).

Milwaukee finished with the worst record in the NBA last season, so there’s nowhere to go but up in 2014.  The Bucks have a new head coach in Jason Kidd, and they have promising young talent on the roster.  The Bucks will be a tough out this season, and they’ve shown that in their three games this season.  Milwaukee is just 1-2 on the season, but one loss came by just 2 points (108-106) in Charlotte in overtime and the other loss only came by 11 points (108-97) in Washington despite the Wizards shooting 54.8% (40-73) from the field and taking 33 free throws.  Milwaukee has one of the best benches in the NBA, and their edge on the second unit will be a major factor in this game.  

Indiana is not the same team that they were last season.  The Pacers lost Lance Stephenson to free agency, and Paul George suffered a gruesome leg injury over the summer while playing for Team USA.  Indiana is without their best two players on both ends of the court, especially on offense as 36.2 points per game is now missing.  Indiana has a terrible offense this season.  They’ve scored just 92 and 89 points in their last two games, and they will struggle once again tonight against a Milwaukee defense that is holding opponents to 43.5% shooting from the field.  We’ll take the points with Milwaukee in this game as Indiana has no business laying points into any team right now.

9* Play BUCKS (+).

Brooklyn and Detroit both come into this game winless on the season; the Nets are 0-1 while the Pistons are 0-2.  Brooklyn’s loss came in Boston after they allowed the Celtics to score 121 points on 55.7% (49-88) shooting from the floor.  The Nets gave up a whopping 62 points in the paint despite Boston playing a small ball style.  That’s not a good sign for Brooklyn in this game, especially since Detroit has one of the best frontcourts in the NBA and the Pistons expect to get center Greg Monroe back from his two game suspension tonight.  The Nets are working in a new system under new head coach Lionel Hollins who is their fourth different coach over the past two seasons.  The Nets are also without their best player and big man, center Brook Lopez, who is out with a foot injury.  Brooklyn is an old and aging team that is limited, and it’s simply going to take time for them to play as a cohesive unit.

Detroit comes in off two close losses in games they could have won.  The Pistons lost both games in the final couple of minutes, but with this being their home opener, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.  The Pistons made an excellent hire in the off-season as new head coach Stan Van Gundy is a huge upgrade over the poor Detroit staff of last season.  The Pistons underachieved greatly last season, but with a solid nucleus and good coaching, Detroit should now be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  The results have yet to show on the scoreboard, but the Pistons’ play on the court has been much better than last year.  This is a good spot for Detroit to get their first win, so we’ll lay the points with the Pistons on Saturday night.

9* Play PISTONS (-).

Memphis basically returns their entire team from the last couple of seasons, and they’ve added some nice role players to their second unit.  The Grizzlies won their season opener 105-101 over a scrappy Minnesota team on Wednesday night.  Memphis dominated that game in the paint as they out-scored the Timberwolves 58-34 in the middle.  The Grizzlies will do the same thing tonight against an Indiana team that was out-scored 48-32 inside the paint in their season opener against the lowly Sixers.  Memphis is an elite team compared to Philadelphia, so the Pacers are taking a major step-up in class for this game tonight.      

Indiana was the best team over the first half of last season.  But things are much different this season despite the Pacers winning their season opener.  Indiana lost Lance Stephenson to free agency, and Paul George suffered a gruesome leg injury over the summer while playing for Team USA.  That leaves Indiana minus their best two players on both ends of the court.  The Pacers only scored 96.7 points per game last season with those guys on the court, and with 36.2 points per game missing, Indiana will have a terrible offense this season.  We will disregard the 103 points they scored on Philadelphia on Wednesday night because the points came against the Sixers who project to be one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Memphis in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play GRIZZLIES (-).

Detroit made an excellent hire in the off-season, and we expect it to pay dividends right away.  New head coach Stan Van Gundy is a huge upgrade over the poor Detroit staff of last season.  Gundy’s presence alone will boost the Pistons by more than a few wins.  Detroit also has one of the best young frontcourts in the league, led by Andre Drummond.  The Pistons underachieved last season, but with a solid nucleus and good coaching, I expect Detroit to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.

Denver has a good roster, but the Nuggets will struggle early on this season.  Denver’s best offensive players, Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Nate Robinson, and JaVale McGee are all returning from major injuries and their minutes will be watched closely in the early part of the season.  “It’s a process,” guard Arron Afflalo said.  “Trying to get an entire healthy group, plus a couple of other guys acclimated. It’s not going to be a snap-of-a-finger type of process. The coaches understood that dynamic coming in. You just kind of get through the preseason and not pass judgment too much.”  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Detroit on Wednesday night.  

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Chicago is loaded with talent, and they have a coach in Tom Thibodeau that gets the most out of his players.  With a healthy Derrick Rose, the Bulls have the potential to make a run at the title.  Rose was terrific in the preseason, and he scored 57 points in the last two games.  Chicago also added Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, Doug McDermott, and Nikola Mirotic who will all bolster Chicago’s offense.  The Bulls always bring their defense under Thibodeau, and if the team avoids the injury bug, Chicago will be one of the best teams in the NBA this season.        

The New York Knicks are breaking in a new system under new GM Phil Jackson and new head coach Derek Fisher.  The Knicks are installing the triangle offense, but they simply do not have the right personnel nor the experience to run it correctly right now.  New York struggled with the offense throughout the preseason, and they are also dealing with injuries to Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon.  “This is difficult to do,” said head coach Fisher.  “Last night, we talked about we’re not just installing new software to the computer. We’re building a computer from scratch, and that’s not easy to do.”  Chicago is ready to win right away while New York is going thru a transition, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play BULLS (-).

Miami comes into tonight’s game off back-to-back blowout home losses.  The Heat lost by 19 points in Game 3 and by 21 points in Game 4.  Those two losses are not a true representation of these two teams, and we can fully expect Miami to bring their ‘A’ game tonight.  The Heat didn’t shoot all that poorly in Game 4; they shot 45.1% (32-71) from the field and 40.9% (9-22) from three-point land.  Miami’s issue came at the free throw line where they shot an ugly 65.0% (13-20).  For the season, Miami is a solid free throw shooting team as they hit 76.4% from the line.  Miami will make their free throws tonight, and that will make them much more competitive than they were in the last two games.  Miami has also proven they can win on San Antonio’s home court; they won Game 2 (98-96) and they also won Game 4 in last year’s NBA Finals (109-93).  Miami is also 13-1 SU off a loss in the playoffs over the last few seasons.

San Antonio’s offense has been incredible in the last two games.  The Spurs shot a combined 58.2% (78-134) from the field in Games 3 and 4.  Those shooting numbers are unsustainable, and with San Antonio up 3-1 in the series and returning home off a pair of blowout road wins, we expect some regression tonight.  The Spurs also shot incredibly well from three-point land as they hit 43.9% (18-41), and from the free throw line where they hit 77.2% (44-57).  It’s hard to see San Antonio being efficient in all three offensive categories tonight.  This line is also inflated as it’s an 10.5-point swing from Game 4 when Miami was a 5-point favorite.  It’s also a 1.5-point difference from Game 2 when Miami was just a 4-point underdog on San Antonio’s home court.  Miami holds excellent value as they are a Class-A team coming off back-to-back blowout losses in which they trailed by 25 points or more in each game.  We’ll take the points with Miami in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

10* Play HEAT (+).

Two of the first three games in this series have gone Over the total, but both of those results were misleading.  Game 1 only went Over the total by 7 points despite 25 three-point shots made by both teams.  Game 3 only went Over the total by 6 points despite hot shooting and a lot of free throws.  San Antonio shot an incredible 59.4% (38-64) from the field and 45.0% (9-20) from three-point land.  The Spurs also hit 81.2% (26-32) from the free throw line.  Miami shot 51.6% (32-62) from the field and 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land.  The Heat also hit 75.0% (18-24) from the free throw line.  The pace of Game 3 was extremely slow as the teams only combined to take 126 shots in the game.  We expect the shooting to cool off for both teams, and since the pace of play has been slow, Game 4 will be much lower scoring tonight.

This is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, so we have a large amount of data to work with since these teams played a full seven games and they have the identical lineups this season.  Even though two of the first three games have gone Over, these are still two veteran lineups that know how to play defense when needed.  Game 4 did go Over the total last year, however the Over/Under line was just 186 in that game.  Tonight’s posted total is 11 points higher this season which means the Under holds some tremendous value, especially since five of the seven games last year had 190 total points or less scored in regulation time (Game 6 went to overtime).  The seven games in the NBA Finals last season averaged only 193 total points per game (in regulation time) with a median score of just 190 total points per game.  My mathematical re-scoring model still favors the Under as the three games so far this season should have averaged just 192.8 points per game when adjusting for pace of play.  With a return to normal shooting percentages, Game 4 of the NBA Finals will be lower scoring tonight.

10* Play UNDER (Spurs/Heat).

Game 3 favored San Antonio, and we won an easy Best Bet selection on the Spurs when they beat Miami 111-92.  However, the situation is much different now in Game 4 and Miami is now the team in a good situation.  The Heat lost at home for just the tenth time this season, and it was their first home loss in the playoffs this season.  In three home games following a previous home loss, Miami went 2-1 SU and ATS with the two wins coming by 23 and 11 points.  Miami is the two-time defending NBA champion and they have consistently shown the ability to bounce back after a playoff loss.  In fact, the Heat are a perfect 13-0 SU off their past 13 playoff defeats.  Going back further, Miami is 19-7 ATS following a playoff loss, including 11-0 ATS after a loss by 11+ points.

San Antonio shot the lights out in Game 3.  The Spurs shot an incredible 59.4% (38-64) from the field and 45.0% (9-20) from three-point land.  The Spurs also hit 81.2% (26-32) from the free throw line.  Miami’s defense was obviously poor in Game 3, but off a blowout loss, we can expect the Heat to buckle down tonight.  It was just the fourth time in the playoffs that Miami allowed more than 100 points.  In three games directly following, Miami has allowed just 96, 83, and 96 points.  All three of those games resulted in Miami wins, and it’s impressive considering that all three wins came on the road.  Miami should bounce back even stronger at home tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Heat in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

9* Play HEAT (-).

This series is tied at two games apiece after Miami won at home on Sunday night.  That game went back and forth in the fourth quarter, and the Heat simply made the shots to win the game.  San Antonio is in a good bounce back spot tonight off that loss, and there is solid value with the Spurs at an underdog price.  San Antonio has played 20 games in the playoffs this season, and they’ve only been an underdog in four of those games.  They went 2-2 SU in those games, but one game came after a 4-day layoff, so we can discount those results.  San Antonio’s offense shot poorly from the field in Game 2 as they hit just 43.9% (36-82) and a terrible 60.0% (12-20) from the free throw line.  The Spurs missed critical free throws in the fourth quarter, including four straight after a technical foul on Miami.  Those misses turned the game around as the Spurs would have taken control and stretched their lead with a few minutes left to play.  San Antonio is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league at 78.1%, so we expect them to make their attempts tonight.

Miami was in a strong situational spot for Game 2, and they cashed a Best Bet selection for us in their 98-96 win over the Spurs.  The Heat shot an incredible 52.9% (37-70) from the field and 42.1% (8-19) from three-point land.  LeBron James played superb as he scored 35 points on 63.6% (14-22) from the field, including a perfect 3-for-3 from beyond the arc.  James was on a mission after missing most of the fourth quarter in Game 1 due to leg cramps; he took a lot of negative press after the series opener.  Miami is now in a bit of a flat spot after their outright road win in Game 2.  The Spurs and Heat alternated wins and losses in the first six games of the Finals last season, including an easy 36-point bounce back win by San Antonio in Game 3, and there’s no reason that trend won’t repeat itself this year.  We’ll take the points with San Antonio in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight.

10* Play SPURS (+).

There is no question that the loss of LeBron James in the fourth quarter due to leg cramps made a huge difference in Game 1.  The Heat were winning when James first left with 7:37 remaining in the fourth quarter, and the Heat were trailing by only 2 points when James left the game and never returned at the 4:00 mark.  San Antonio shot an incredible 87.5% from the field as a team in the fourth quarter.  Miami obviously missed LeBron James' defensive presence, but it also appeared the Heat loss focus as an entire team defensively without their superstar on the court.

The situation will be different now in Game 2 on Sunday night as Miami and LeBron James have had two full days of rest and practice to regroup.  Miami is still the two-time defending NBA champion and they have consistently shown the ability to bounce back after a playoff loss.  In fact, the Heat are a perfect 12-0 SU off their past twelve playoff defeats.  Going back further, Miami is 18-7 ATS following a playoff loss, including 10-0 ATS after a loss by 11+ points.

Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in Game 2 after a loss and this is the third straight year that Miami has lost Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  In each of the past two seasons, the Heat have bounced back to win Game 2 and the NBA championship overall.  In 2012, Miami lost at Oklahoma City in Game 1 by 11 points and responded with a straight-up win as a +5.5 point road underdog in Game 2.  The game was never as close as the 100-96 final score indicated as Miami led by 17 points and never trailed in the entire game.  Last year, Miami lost outright as a home favorite versus the Spurs in Game 1, but the Heat once again bounced back with an easy win in Game 2 (103-84) and led by as many as 27 points.  Look for history to repeat itself and for Miami to bring their 'A'-game in Game 2 tonight.

10* Play HEAT (+).

This is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, so we have a large amount of data to work with since these teams played a full 7 games and have identical lineups this season.  Points per possession is a bit higher this season as the offenses have been strong and efficient for both teams, however these are still two veteran lineups that know how to play defense when needed.  This was evident last year in the NBA Finals when both Games 1 & 2 stayed Under the total with just 180 and 187 total points scored.  In fact, five of the seven games last year had 190 total points or less scored in regulation time (Game 6 went to overtime).  The seven games in the NBA Finals last season averaged only 193 total points per game (in regulation time) with a median score of just 190 total points per game.

The posted Over/Under line was only 190 and 189 in Games 1 & 2 last season, but now the oddsmakers have set the line nearly 9 points higher in Game 1 this season.  This is largely because both teams have averaged more points per game, but even when making the adjustment for more efficient scoring this season, my mathematical re-scoring model still favors the Under using the pace of play from last year's NBA Finals.  In fact, my re-scoring model totaled just 183.5 and 180.5 in Games 1 & 2 last year, and when using this year's pace/possession factor, it still would have totaled just 188 and 184.5.  Class-A teams normally play strong defense in Game 1 of a playoff series, and both teams enter with plenty of rest tonight.  Miami has not played since last Friday (5 days rest), while San Antonio played last Saturday (4 days rest).  This should ensure that both defenses are fresh and ready to play tonight, while both offenses might be a bit rusty.

10* Play UNDER (Heat/Spurs).

Game 5 was flying Over the total at halftime and even thru three quarters until both teams put their backups into the game during the fourth quarter and only 38 points total points were scored and the game landed exactly on 206 and was either a Push or Under for most bettors.  The starters on both teams got plenty of rest in the second half on Thursday night, so they should be fresh defensively this evening, but maybe a little sluggish on offense.

The Thunder realize they must play better defense in Game 6 tonight and they are likely to do so.  Oklahoma City has allowed 122, 112, and 117 points on the road, but only 97 and 92 points at home so far in this Western Conference Finals.  The Under is either 2-0-1 or 3-0 (depending on your line) since Serge Ibaka returned in Game 3.  Ibaka provides a substantial defensive presence in the paint and has help cut down on the amount of easy points San Antonio was getting down low in Games 1 & 2.

These are two strong offensive teams, however these are also two Class-A teams that know defense wins championships.  Teams normally increase their defensive intensity in Games 6 & 7 of a playoff series and the pace and tempo often slow down.  The five playoff games have averaged just 204 points per game so far, however this average is a bit misleading as Game 1 had 227 points scored.  Since Game 1, the past four games have averaged just 199 total points per game.  The pace of play has been slower than expected and my re-scoring pace model has averaged only 201 points per game in this playoff series, with a median re-score of just 200 total points per game.

9* Play UNDER (Spurs/Thunder).

Game 5 barely stayed Under the total on Wednesday night, however the only reason it was close was because the Pacers and Heat combined to score 62 points in the 4th quarter.  The teams had combined to score just 75 points in the first half and the game was on pace for just 161 points after three quarters.  Most importantly, the pace of play was once again slow in Game 5 with my mathematical re-scoring pace model totaling just 171.5.  The higher scoring games in this series have been misleading as both teams have shot above their normal (expected) percentages from the field.  This is unlikely to continue, especially considering Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and considering Miami will have extra focus and defensive intensity tonight after losing Game 5.

My mathematical re-scoring model incorporates pace and expected points per possession and it has totaled just 184, 163.5, 176, 169.5, 171.5 so far in this series for an average re-score of just 173 total points per game.  The four regular season head-to-head meetings this season also had a slow pace of play with my re-scoring model averaging just 182 points per game, which would equate to approximately 179.5 points per game in a playoff setting.  These teams also played seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals last year and the first four games went Over the total, while the final three games stayed Under the total.  It was a very similar situation as my re-scoring model showed a slow pace of play, but the early games went Over because of hot shooting.  This all changed in Game 5 last year which totaled just 169 points with a re-score of 174.5, and then saw Game 6 total just 168 points with a re-score of 173.  Overall, the seven games in last year's Eastern Conference Finals averaged only 176.5 total points per game based on my re-scoring model, with a median re-score of just 174.5.

10* Play UNDER (Pacers/Heat).

Oklahoma City bounced back with two strong performances at home to tie this series up at two games apiece.  The Thunder got a big boost with the unexpected return of Serge Ibaka, and San Antonio simply wasn’t ready for his presence.  Oklahoma City will take to the road for this crucial Game 5, and the Spurs will be better prepared.  The Thunder’s offense was poor in the first two games, but that can be attributed to fatigue as they were playing their fourth and fifth road games over a 12-day span.  Oklahoma City returned home and their offense instantly got better as they scored 211 points in the two games after shooting 47.1% (74-157) from the field.  The Thunder will continue their good offensive rhythm tonight, especially since we expect the Spurs to quicken the pace.

San Antonio’s offense was sure to regress in their last two games after scoring 234 points on 53.8% (91-169) shooting from the field, 45.0% (18-40) shooting from three-point land, and hitting 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line in the first two games.  The Spurs’ efficiency dropped sharply as they only scored just 189 points in Games 3 and 4 after shooting 39.7% (69-174) from the field and 35.8% (19-53) from three-point land.  With a return home, we expect the Spurs’ offense to snap back with a strong performance tonight.  They’ve scored 104 points or more in each of their last seven home games while averaging 113.7 points per game.  In the last seven meetings between Oklahoma City and San Antonio, the winning team has scored 105 points or more with an average of 110.7 points scored.  Oklahoma City has scored 105 points or more in three of four games in this series, and San Antonio has scored 122 and 112 points in their two home games.  We expect a high-scoring Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami lost Game 1 in Indiana by 11 points (106-97), but since that defeat, the Heat have taken control of the series.  Miami has won the last three games, and it may seem like a foregone conclusion that they will close the series out tonight.  However, there’s reason to believe otherwise.  Indiana is Miami’s toughest match-up, and that has been the case over the last few seasons.  The last game in Miami was heavily influenced by the refs as the Heat took 34 free throw attempts to just 17 attempts for Indiana.  Miami was +15 in points scored from the free throw line in their two home games.  The Heat will not get all the favorable calls tonight with this game on Indiana’s home court.  In the first two games on their court, the Pacers held a 52-33 free throw attempts edge and they were +18 points scored from the free throw line.  Based on the officiating trends of the first four games of this series, Indiana will have a significant edge from the line.  

Indiana’s defense has been the best in the playoffs, and they are particularly stout on their home court.  At home this season, the Pacers allow just 89 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land.  In four home games versus Miami this season, the Pacers have held the Heat to just 87.5 points per game.  Indiana went 3-1 SU in those games with their lone loss coming by 4 points in Game 2 of this series.  Indiana has been incredible when playing at home off a SU road loss this season.  The Pacers are 9-2 SU in this situation, including a perfect 2-0 SU against Miami.  Indiana tends to blow teams out in this situation as their average margin of victory is a whopping 16.8 points per game.  We expect Indiana to bounce back with a strong effort tonight, so we’ll take the points in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night. 

10* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City bounced back with a strong performance in Game 3 as expected, and there’s no reason they can’t get a similar outcome tonight.  San Antonio was sure to regress in their last game after scoring 234 points on 53.8% (91-169) shooting from the field, 45.0% (18-40) shooting from three-point land, and hitting 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line in the first two games.  The Spurs’ efficiency dropped sharply on Sunday night as they scored just 97 points on 39.6% (36-91) shooting from the field.  San Antonio’s offense did not get many open looks inside the paint, and they had to settle for a lot of jump shots.  The reason for that was the unexpected return of Serge Ibaka who was ruled out for the season after injuring his calf.  Ibaka’s defensive presence is a key match-up advantage for the Thunder, and it was obvious that San Antonio was bothered with him on the court. 

In four regular season meetings against Oklahoma City, the Spurs’ offense only averaged 96.8 points per game in those four meetings.  The Thunder play with more confidence at home, and we saw their offense be aggressive in the last game.  Oklahoma City actually shot poorly as they hit just 45.7% (37-81) from the field and 27.3% (6-22) from three-point land.  But they took the ball to the rim and got to the free throw line 31 times in Game 3.  They also out-scored the Spurs 12-3 in fast-break points.  That combination was tough for San Antonio to overcome, and if Oklahoma City shoots a better percentage, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to stay close in this game.  The Thunder are 6-2 SU versus San Antonio over the last eight meetings, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home with their average win coming by 9.8 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Miami and Indiana shot the lights out in Game 3 just as they did in Game 1.  The Heat shot 54.4% (37-68) from the field and 55.6% (10-18) from three-point land while the Pacers shot 47.7% (31-65) from the field.  The teams also combined to shoot 75.6% (34-45) from the free throw line.  Despite 186 total points scored, the pace of play was extremely slow as it only had 86.5 possessions in the game.  That pace was even slower than the four regular season meetings this season when Miami and Indiana averaged just 89.9 possessions per game.  In the playoffs, Miami has been the second slowest team while Indiana has been the tenth slowest of the playoff teams.  My mathematical re-scoring pace model has averaged just 179 in the seven head-to-head meetings this season, with a median re-score of 179.5, however the pace of play has been even slower so far in this playoff series as the past three games have averaged just 174.5 based on my re-score model, with a median re-score of 176.

Indiana has the best defensive team in the playoffs, and the Pacers will play much better tonight after back-to-back poor performances.  Prior to giving up 99 points in Game 3, Indiana had held Miami to just 90.8 points per game in their first six meetings this season.  Miami’s offense has been good over the past two games because of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.  They’ve scored a combined 94 points on 57.8% (37-64) from the field in those past two games.  Miami’s defense has been strong in the playoffs; the 6th best in defensive efficiency.  They were poor in Game 1, and they bounced back in Game 2 when they held Indiana to just 83 points.  Miami’s defense was just okay in Game 3, so they’ll play much better tonight as well.  We expect a low-scoring game between Indiana and Miami in Game 4 on Monday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Miami took a 2-1 series lead on Saturday night when they beat Indiana 99-87.  That game was a tale of two halves as the Pacers out-scored the Heat 42-38 in the first half while the Heat out-scored the Pacers 61-45 in the second half.  Despite the results of the last game, Indiana is still Miami’s toughest match-up; they’ve proven that over the last few seasons.  Miami is 6-4 versus Indiana over the last ten meetings, and four of the last seven meetings have been decided by less than the posted pointspread on tonight’s game.  The Pacers’ defense has been the best in the playoffs, but they played poorly in the last two games.  They allowed Miami to be too efficient from the field as the Heat shot a combined 52.6% (71-135) from the field and 47.4% (18-38) from three-point land.  Indiana’s defense will play much better tonight, and that will keep them competitive.

Miami once again got dominating performances by LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Game 3.  That duo controlled Game 2 as well.  They’ve scored a combined 94 points on 57.8% (37-64) from the field in the last two games.  Miami is only 3-3 ATS over their last six games, and they coved the spread in back-to-back games for the first time since May 6th and May 8th.  Prior to their 12-point win in Game 3, Miami’s three previous wins only came by 6, 2, and 4 points.  Indiana has been incredible when playing off a SU loss in the playoffs.  The Pacers are a strong 5-1 SU in this situation, including a 2-1 SU and ATS mark as an underdog.  Indiana is also 5-2 SU on the road in the playoffs, so they’ll bounce back with a strong effort tonight.  We’ll take the points with Indiana in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday night. 

9* Play PACERS (+).

San Antonio is up 2-0 in this series, and the main reason for that is their offense.  The Spurs’ offense has been terrific in the first two games.  They’ve scored 234 points while shooting an incredible 53.8% (91-169) from the field, 45.0% (18-40) from three-point land, and 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line.  Those numbers are hard to sustain, and with this game coming on the road, we expect San Antonio’s hot shooting to cool way off.  The first two offensive performances by San Antonio versus Oklahoma City were significantly better than anything the Spurs showed in the regular season meetings.  In four regular season meetings against Oklahoma City, the Spurs’ offense never scored more than 105 points.  San Antonio only averaged 96.8 points per game in those four meetings.  The Spurs are ripe for a reversal of form, and with the Thunder in a must win situation, we expect the desperate team to play much better in this game.

Oklahoma City was simply in terrible situations for the first two games of this series.  The Thunder were playing their fourth and fifth games on the road over a 12-day span, and they were also coming off an energy-draining series against the Clippers in which they made big comebacks to win back-to-back games.  Oklahoma City is now in a much better situation as they return home to play on their court for just the second time since May 7th.  The Thunder also have to be embarrassed by their performance in the first two games as they set playoff records for the margins of defeat.  Oklahoma City’s offense was atrocious in Game 2 as they scored a season-low 77 points after shooting 39.3% (35-89) from the field and an ugly 10.0% (2-10) from three-point land.  They also hit just 50.0% from the free throw line while only getting 10 attempts.  Their two top scorers, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, were terrible in combining for only 30 points on 32.5% (13-40) shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City will bring their ‘A’ game tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

The series is tied at one game apiece as the scene shifts to Miami.  The Pacers easily won Game 1, but they couldn’t hold their fourth quarter lead in Game 2 and lost 87-83.  Indiana only lost that game by 4 points despite getting out-shot 50.7% to 40.0% by Miami.  That’s a positive sign for Indiana, and it shows that the Heat have a tough time getting separation from the Pacers.  Indiana is Miami’s toughest match-up, and that has been the case over the last few seasons.  The teams have split the last ten meetings, and four of the last six meetings have been decided by less than the posted pointspread on tonight’s game.  The Pacers’ defense has been the best in the playoffs, but they played poorly in the last game.  They didn’t give up many points, but they allowed Miami to be too efficient from the field.  Indiana has dominated the glass in the first two games; they’ve out-rebounded Miami 79-67, including a 23-10 edge on the offensive glass.

Miami got dominating performances by LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Game 2.  That duo combined to score more than half of Miami’s points (45 of 87) after shooting 55.9% (19-34) from the field.  The Heat will need other contributors tonight, but they don’t get consistent production when playing Indiana.  After opening the playoffs with a 5-1 ATS record, Miami is only 2-3 ATS over their last five games.  The Heat haven’t covered the spread in back-to-back games since May 6th and May 8th with their three wins since then only coming by 6, 2, and 4 point margins.  Indiana has been incredible when playing off a straight-up loss in the playoffs.  The Pacers are a perfect 5-0 SU in this situation, including a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS as an underdog.  Indiana is also 5-1 SU on the road in the playoffs this year, so they should bounce back with a strong effort tonight.  Paul George has been cleared to play and we’ll take the points with Indiana in game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday night.

10* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City and San Antonio played a high-scoring Game 1 on Monday night.  The Thunder and Spurs scored a total of 227 points despite a relatively slow pace.  That game only had 96 possessions, and it’s rare for a game to exceed 200 points in a game with less than 100 possessions.  Oklahoma City shot okay from the field as they hit 46.2% (37-80).  However, they shot 44.4% (12-27) from three-point land and 82.6% (19-23) from the free throw line.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook had good offensive games as they combined for 53 points on 47.5% (19-40) shooting from the field.  Overall, the Thunder’s offense and their best scorers played well, so it’s hard to see them playing much better tonight in Game 2, especially since this will be their fifth road game over their last six games during a 12-day span.

San Antonio’s offense was incredible in Game 1.  The 122 points scored by the Spurs were the most they’ve scored in the playoffs.  San Antonio shot 57.5% (50-87) from the field and 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land.  They also hit 76.5% (13-17) from the free throw line.  San Antonio had eleven different players score, and five of those players scored 14 point or more.  In four regular season games against Oklahoma City, the Spurs’ offense never scored more than 105 points.  San Antonio only averaged 96.8 points per game in those four meetings.  The four games only averaged 202.8 points scored per game, so based on previous history, the 227 points scored in Game 1 was an aberration.  We expect a low-scoring Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

We lost with the Under in Game 1, but we have no hesitation in coming right back with the Under in Game 2, especially with the total being a full three points higher.  Miami and Indiana shot the lights out in Game 1.  The Heat shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field while the Pacers shot 51.5% (35-68) from the field and 42.1% (8-19) from three-point land.  The teams also combined to shoot 75.0% (39-52) from the free throw line.  Despite 203 total points scored, the pace of play was extremely slow as it only had 89.4 possessions in the game.  That pace fell right in line with the regular-season games.  In four games overall this season, Miami and Indiana averaged just 89.9 possessions per game.  In the playoffs, Miami has only averaged 88.2 possessions per game.  That’s the second slowest number of the 16 playoff teams.  Indiana has averaged 92.5 possessions per game in the playoffs; the 10th slowest of the 16 playoff teams. 

Miami’s offense has been terrific in the playoffs, and they were good in Game 1.  But Indiana has the best defensive team in the playoffs, and the Pacers will play much better tonight.  In two regular season games in Indiana, the Heat scored just 84 and 83 points.  Indiana’s offense played well above their heads on Sunday afternoon; they scored more than 97 points for just the second time in 14 playoff games.  The Pacers scored 101 points on Atlanta in Game 2, but they followed that up with an 85-point output in Game 3.  Miami’s defense has been strong in the playoffs; the 6th best in defensive efficiency.  They were poor in Game 1, so they’ll bounce back in this game tonight.  The two regular season games on this court only had 174 and 167 points scored, and off the abnormal results in Game 1, there’s a ton of value on the Under in Game 2 tonight.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Oklahoma City has played in back-to-back tough playoff series; they needed 7 games to beat Memphis and 6 games to beat the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Thunder will also play on the road for the fourth time in five games tonight, and it comes over a 10-day span.  Oklahoma City also made big comebacks in their last two games; they trailed by 15 points in Game 5 versus the Clippers and they trailed by 16 points in Game 6.  It will all catch up to the Thunder soon, and we expect tonight to be the night.  Oklahoma City will also play without Serge Ibaka for the rest of the playoffs as he suffered a calf injury in their last game.  His absence is huge because he is a terrific rebounder and a tough match-up for the Spurs.

San Antonio struggled with Dallas in their opening series; they needed 7 games to advance.  But the Spurs turned things on against Portland in their last series as they cruised to a 4-1 series win.  San Antonio won all four of those games by 15 points or more.  The last six wins by the Spurs have all come by more than tonight’s posted pointspread, and they scored 104 points or more in all six of those games.  Game 1 is huge for San Antonio after they lost all four games against Oklahoma City this season.  In fact, the Spurs are just 2-8 SU versus the Thunder in the last ten meetings.  San Antonio needs to win convincingly tonight to prove that they can play with Oklahoma City.  The fact that they are winless versus the Thunder ensures we will get a supreme effort from San Antonio.  The Spurs have no excuse in this game, especially with Oklahoma City missing Ibaka and the poor scheduling and situational spot the Thunder are in.  We’ll lay the points with San Antonio in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday night.

10* Play SPURS (-).

Miami has had an easy time in the playoffs so far, and their offense took advantage of a pair of sub-par defensive teams.  The Heat have the most efficient offense in the playoffs thus far, but they are taking a major step-up in defensive class versus Indiana.  The Pacers have the most efficient defensive team in the playoffs, and their stop unit will slow Miami’s offense down.  In two regular season games in Indiana, the Heat scored just 84 and 83 points.  In four games overall this season, Miami and Indiana played four slow-paced games.  They averaged just 89.9 possessions per game, and with the way the two teams have played in the playoffs, we expect another slow-paced game today.  In nine playoff games, Miami has only averaged 88.2 possessions per game.  That’s the second slowest number of the 16 playoff teams.

Indiana has basically survived the playoffs so far.  The Pacers needed 7 games to get by Atlanta, and they needed 6 games to beat Washington.  They are taking a monumental step-up in class versus Miami, but the Pacers match-up extremely well against the Heat, especially on the defensive end of the court.  In 13 playoff games this season, Indiana has averaged 92.5 possessions per game; the 10th slowest of the 16 playoff teams.  The Pacers’ offense has been stagnant in the playoffs against two weak defensive teams.  Indiana will be facing a Miami defense that has been strong in the playoffs; the 6th best in defensive efficiency.  The two regular season games on this court only had 174 and 167 points scored.  We expect a low-scoring Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Pacers on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play UNDER the total.

Oklahoma City and Los Angeles have played back-to-back Unders after going Over the total in two of the first three games in this series.  The winning team has scored 101 points or more in all five games, and the pace of play has remained fast.  But the oddsmakers have lowered tonight’s total a couple of points simply based on the recent results, and that has created some value on the Over in Game 6 tonight.  In Tuesday night’s 105-104 win by Oklahoma City, both teams shot poorly.  The Clippers hit just 43.2% (38-88) from the field while the Thunder hit just 42.9% (33-77) from the field.  The teams combined for 31 fast break points in that game, and that clearly shows an up-tempo style of basketball.  Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play at a fast pace once again, and with normal shooting percentages, this game will get up and Over the total.

The Thunder and Clippers have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  They averaged 103 possessions per game in their four regular season meetings, and the first five games of this series were fast.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City’s offense is averaging 107.8 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field.  Over their last five games, the Clippers have averaged 108 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with the Thunder allowing 108 points per game and Los Angeles allowing 107.8 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Clippers on Thursday night.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Brooklyn is down 3-1 in this series, but only one of those three losses was a clunker.  The Nets were in a terrible spot for Game 1, and they were never close in a 107-86 blowout loss.  In Game 2, the Nets were only down 2 points in the fourth quarter before losing by 12 points (94-82).  Brooklyn led by as many as 20 points in their 104-90 win in Game 3.  And in Game 4 on Monday night, the Nets led by a point with just over 4 minutes left to play in the game before ultimately losing 102-96.  Brooklyn has proven they can stay competitive with Miami, and the line is simply too high considering how close these teams are.  The Nets’ offense was poor in Game 4 as they shot just 43.6% (34-78) from the field and an ugly 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land.  Despite that awful performance, Brooklyn only lost the game by 6 points.   

Miami’s offense was terrific in the last game as they shot 52.9% (37-70) from the field.  LeBron James took the game over as he scored 49 points on 16 of 24 shooting from the field.  He also got to the free throw line 19 times in the game.  When we combine the poor shooting of Brooklyn and the incredible performance by LeBron James, it’s even more impressive that the Nets had a legitimate chance to win the game late.  Brooklyn went a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS against Miami in the regular season, and the Nets have been close in three of four games in this series.  That means Brooklyn has played Miami close in seven of eight meetings this season, so the Nets hold some tremendous value in this pointspread range.  Brooklyn’s season is on the line, so we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  We’ll take the points with the motivated underdog in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play NETS (+).

Los Angeles looked like a defeated team in the fourth quarter of Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.  The Clippers trailed by 15 points, but they stormed back and won 101-99 after out-scoring Oklahoma City 38-24 over the final 12 minutes of play.  That loss put a charge into Los Angeles while the loss deflated Oklahoma City.  The Clippers have all of the momentum coming into tonight’s crucial Game 5, and since they are getting a handful of points, we see some good value.  Los Angeles’ offense has been poor over the last couple of games, but they are too good to be held down for long.  In Game 4, the Clippers only shot 41.9% (39-93) from the field and an ugly 14.3% (3-21) from three-point land.  They were also bad from the free throw line as they went just 20-29 (69.0%).  Overall, their offense is much better as they average 108.2 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land. 

Oklahoma City has been erratic in the playoffs, and off the heartbreaking loss on Sunday, the Thunder may play with a bit of a hangover tonight.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been stagnant over the last two games as they’ve taken just 75 and 79 shots.  To compare, the Clippers have taken 93 shots in each of the last two games.  Los Angeles has more versatility on offense while the Thunder relies on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook almost exclusively.  Oklahoma City could not stop Los Angeles inside in Game 4 as the Clippers out-scored the Thunder 52-32 inside the paint.  If that repeats and the Clippers get hot from outside, Oklahoma City has no chance to win this game.  That’s exactly what happened in Game 1 on Oklahoma City’s home court and the Clippers won by 17 points.  We’ll take the points with Los Angeles in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

9* Play CLIPPERS (+).

Miami played their worst defensive game in the playoffs in Game 3, and it cost them as they lost 104-90 to Brooklyn.  Prior to that poor performance, Miami had given up 98 points or less in all six of their playoff games; the Heat allowed an average of 89.3 points per game.  In the first two games against Brooklyn, the Heat allowed just 86 and 82 points.  Miami’s defense will bounce back with a strong effort tonight, especially since it’s highly unlikely that Brooklyn will repeat their shooting from Game 3.  The Nets shot 52.8% (38-72) from the field and an incredible 60.0% (15-25) from three-point land.  Overall this season, Brooklyn’s offense shoots just 45.9% from the field and 36.7% from three-point land.  Game 3 was an aberration, and we expect the Nets’ shooting to revert to normal and for Miami’s defense to play much better.   

The Heat and Nets played four times during the regular season, and all four of those games were played at an extremely slow pace.  They averaged only 88.1 possessions per game.  All three of the games in this series have also been played at a slow pace with the games only averaging 144 shots taken per game.  Brooklyn and Miami play a similar style of basketball, so that’s one of the main reasons why the games are played so slowly.  Over the course of the regular season, Brooklyn played their slowest-paced games against Miami while the Heat played their second slowest-paced games versus the Nets.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Heat and Nets on Monday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Oklahoma City and Los Angeles went Over the total in Game 3, and we cashed a Best Bet selection.  And we’ll come right back with the Over in Game 4 today for all the same reasons.  The pace of all three games has been fast with a total of 509 shots taken by the Thunder and Clippers.  In Friday night’s 118-112 loss, Los Angeles shot poorly as they hit just 45.2% (42-93) from the field and an ugly 26.9% (7-26) from three-point land.  Oklahoma City also shot poorly from beyond the arc as they hit 35.3% (6-17) from three-point land.  The teams combined to take 43 three’s in that game, but they only made 30.2% (13-43) which is well below their season averages.  Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play at a fast pace once again, and with normal shooting percentages, this game will get up and Over the total.

The Thunder and Clippers have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  They averaged 103 possessions per game in their four regular season meetings, and the first three games of this series were fast.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City’s offense has been terrific in averaging 111.8 points per game on 52.2% shooting from the field and 38.0% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Clippers have averaged 112 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with the Thunder allowing 105.6 points per game and Los Angeles allowing 111.2 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect another high-scoring game between the Thunder and Clippers on Sunday afternoon.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Portland played better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but the Blazers could not overcome San Antonio’s hot shooting.  That has been the case in the first two games so far as the Spurs have shot a combined 52.0% (92-177) from the field and 52.8% (19-36) from three-point land.  San Antonio’s offense has been on a major roll over their last five games as they’ve averaged 113.8 points per game on 51.9% shooting from the field and 47.8% shooting from three-point land.  Those high shooting percentages are simply unsustainable, and we expect San Antonio’s offense to cool way down, especially tonight on the road.  The Spurs’ three road games in their last playoff series versus Dallas were less than dominating as they went just 1-2 SU with their lone win coming by just 4 points after their offense scored just 93 points.  San Antonio is ‘fat and happy’ after their two blowout wins at home, so there’s reason to expect a lesser performance tonight.

The Trail Blazers have been solid at home all season.  Portland is 33-11 on their home court, and since they are down 0-2 in this series, we can expect a strong bounce back effort from a desperate team.  Portland’s offense is strong at home as they average 108 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  In four regular season games versus the Spurs this season, Portland averaged 105.6 points per game; they scored 109 points or more in three of the four games.  The Blazers’ offense is much better than they showed in Games 1 and 2 when they scored a total of 189 points.  In three home playoff games this season, Portland has averaged 112.7 points per game.  In three road playoff games, San Antonio’s defense has given up an average of 103.7 points per game.  Based upon those numbers, Portland’s offense will breakout tonight and that gives them a good shot to get back in this series.  We’ll take the points with Portland in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Brooklyn failed to come thru for us in Game 2, but we have no hesitation in backing the Nets once again in Game 3.  As expected, Brooklyn played much better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but the fourth quarter did them in as they were out-scored 25-15 and lost the game 94-82.  Brooklyn has been one of the best home teams in 2014, and we expect a desperate Nets team to get back in this series with a solid win tonight.  At home, Brooklyn is 24-5 SU in 2014, including a 104-95 win in overtime versus the Heat.  Miami is quite satisfied with their 2-0 sweep at home, so tonight’s game is a bit of a flat spot for the Heat.  Their hot shooting has to cool off as well after hitting 53.1% (77-145) from the field, 40.4% (19-47) from three-point land, and 82.4% (28-34) from the free throw line in the first two games.

Miami’s two blowout wins have created a misconception that they have the superior team.  The reality of that is not true, especially considering Brooklyn went a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS against Miami in the regular season.  These two teams are much closer than the recent results suggest, and because of that, Brooklyn holds some tremendous value as a home underdog in this game.  The Nets won all four of the regular season meetings with the Heat this season; Brooklyn won three games by a single point and the other win came in overtime.  The close games show that the margin between Brooklyn and Miami is extremely thin, and that means the 21 and 12-point wins by the Heat so far is not a true representation of this matchup.  Brooklyn knows their season is on the line, so we’ll take the points with the motivated and hungry underdog in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play NETS (+).

Oklahoma City and Los Angeles played two high-scoring games to open this series.  Game 1 went Over the total with 227 points scored, but Game 2 stayed Under the total despite 213 points scored.  For some reason, the posted total on tonight’s Game 3 is lower than the last game, and we see a bit of value on the Over.  The pace of both games has been fast with a total of 337 shots taken by the Thunder and Clippers.  On Wednesday night, Los Angeles shot poorly as they hit just 44.6% (37-83) from the field and 33.3% (9-27) from three-point land.  Oklahoma City also shot poorly from beyond the arc as they hit 34.8% (8-23) from three-point land.  The teams combined to take 50 three’s in that game, but they only made 17.  They also combined to miss 11 free throws in the game which prevented the game from going Over the total.  Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play at a fast pace once again, and with normal shooting averages, this game will get up and Over the total.

The Thunder and Clippers have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  They averaged 103 possessions per game in their four regular season meetings, and the first two games of this series were fast.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City’s offense has been terrific in averaging 108 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Clippers have averaged 112.2 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with the Thunder allowing 103.2 points per game and Los Angeles allowing 108.2 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Clippers on Friday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Portland played well below their capabilities in Game 1 on Tuesday night.  The Blazers lost by 24 points (116-92) after shooting just 37.8% (31-82) from the field and 25.0% (4-16) from three-point land.  The poor offensive performance by Portland can be attributed to the three days off they had before that game.  The Blazers are a team that likes to play up-tempo basketball, and rhythm is vital to their success.  Portland’s offense will be much more fluid tonight, and because of that the Blazers will be competitive.  Overall, Portland averages 106.9 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 37.0% shooting from three-point land.  In four regular season games versus the Spurs this season, Portland averaged 105.6 points per game; they scored 109 points or more in three of the four games.  The Blazers’ offense is much better than they played in Game 1, and we expect them to show it tonight.

San Antonio played an impressive Game 1 considering they were coming into that game off a grueling and emotional 7-game series versus Dallas.  The Spurs’ offense shot 50.6% (44-87) from the field and 43.8% (7-16) from three-point land.  San Antonio also hit 84.0% (21-25) from the free-throw line.  The Spurs scored 119 points in their Game 7 win over the Mavericks after shooting an incredible 56.8% (42-74) from the field and 41.7% (10-24) from three-point land.  That’s back-to-back games in which the Spurs’ offense shot the lights out, but we expect that to end tonight.  This is a terrible spot for San Antonio, and there’s reason to expect a flat performance considering their recent results and scheduling situation.  We’ll take the points with Portland in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Brooklyn was in a terrible spot for Game 1 in Miami, and that showed on the court.  The Nets came into that game off a grueling 7-game series versus Toronto, and the Nets had to play on the road in that Game 7.  Brooklyn then had to travel to Miami on one day of rest and face a fresh Heat team that hadn’t played a game in seven days.  Miami was also quite focused for Game 1 as they had lost all four regular season games to Brooklyn.  The Nets were simply up against it on Tuesday night, and the final score showed that.  Miami won by 21 points (107-86) after shooting an incredible 56.8% (42-74) from the field.  The Heat also hit 87.5% (14-16) from the free throw line, so they capitalized on their opportunities.  Now that Brooklyn has settled in, we expect the Nets to give Miami a stiffer challenge in Game 2 tonight.

Miami’s blowout win in Game 1 was aided by the terrible situation for Brooklyn as noted above.  These two teams are much closer than that final score suggests, and because of that, Brooklyn holds some value in this game.  The Nets won all four of the regular season meetings with the Heat this season; Brooklyn won three games by a single point and the other win came in overtime.  The close games show that the margin between Brooklyn and Miami is extremely thin, and that means the 21-point win by the Heat in Game 1 was an aberration.  Brooklyn is also a veteran team that has a lot of playoff experience, so one loss isn’t going to rattle the team.  We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Brooklyn on Thursday night.

9* Play NETS (+).

Los Angeles played an impressive Game 1 on Monday as they beat Oklahoma City 122-105.  The Clippers were coming into that game off a grueling and emotional 7-game series versus Golden State, and they had to travel with only one day of rest between games.  The Clippers’ offense was incredible as they shot 54.9% (45-82) from the field and 51.7% (15-29) from three-point land.  Los Angeles held an advantage from the free throw line as they were handed 30 attempts while Oklahoma City only took 23 free throws.  The Clippers scored 126 points in their Game 7 win over the Warriors after shooting 55.4% (46-83) from the field.  That’s back-to-back games in which the Clippers’ offense shot the lights out, but we expect that to end tonight.  This is a terrible spot for Los Angeles, and there’s reason to expect a flat performance considering their recent results and scheduling situation.

Oklahoma City played okay in Game 1, but they simply could not overcome the hot shooting of Los Angeles.  The Thunder lost for just the tenth time at home this season, and off that loss, we certainly expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  Oklahoma City has a strong offense that averages 105.8 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  In five games versus the Clippers this season, Oklahoma City is averaging 107.4 points per game; they’ve scored 103 points or more in all five games.  Los Angeles is winning despite playing poor defense.  Over their last five games, the Clippers have given up 109.4 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with the hungry and motivated home favorite in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Washington beat Indiana 102-96 in Game 1 on Monday night, but we do not expect that to happen again in Game 2 tonight.  The Wizards simply shot the lights out from beyond the arc in that game, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to repeat that performance.  Washington shot an incredible 62.5% (10-16) from three-point land, and they also got to the free throw line 31 times in that game.  That game was an aberration, and we expect Indiana’s superiority to rein supreme in this game.  During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense.  In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings.  Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense.  Indiana is a terrible match-up for Washington despite the results in Game 1.

Indiana lost for just the ninth time at home all season, and off that loss, we expect the Pacers to bounce back strong tonight.  Indiana has not lost back-to-back home games all season, and they are a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread when playing at home off a previous home loss this season.  The Pacers are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in this situation in the playoffs, winning those games by 12 and 16 points.  Indiana was limited in Game 1 because of foul trouble, but we certainly expect the Pacers to get a favorable whistle tonight.  Indiana’s defense will play much better tonight as they allow just 88.8 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll lay the points with Indiana in Game 2 on Wednesday night. 

9* Play PACERS (-).

Brooklyn needed seven games to beat Toronto in the first round of the playoffs.  The Nets just played on Sunday afternoon in Toronto, and now they must travel to Miami and play on just one day of rest.  This is not the best of spots for Brooklyn, but on the flip side, Miami has not played in seven days, so they may need some time to get into a rhythm.  Brooklyn and Miami played four times this season, and the Nets won all four games.  Three of their wins came by just a single point, and their other win came in overtime.  Those four games were played at an extremely slow pace, and in fact, they averaged only 88.1 possessions per game.  We expect Game 1 to be played at a similar pace, especially considering the circumstances mentioned above. 

The Nets scored 104 points in their Game 7 win, but the Nets only shot 45.7% (37-81) from the field and 34.8% (8-23) from three-point land.  That game went Over the total not because of the pace (only 154 total shots), but because of free throws (63 attempts), and easy baskets (96 points in the paint).  Brooklyn and Miami play a similar style of basketball, so points will be much tougher to come by.  Over the course of the regular season, Brooklyn played their slowest-paced games against Miami while the Heat played their second slowest-paced games versus the Nets.  Miami’s defense was strong in their series against Charlotte as they held the Bobcats to just 92 points per game.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Nets and Heat on Tuesday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Washington took care of Chicago much easier than expected.  The Wizards won that series in five games, and their only loss came by just 3 points.  Washington simply proved to be too fast for Chicago, and their offense was able to get easy baskets by using their speed edge.  Things will be much different for Washington in this series versus Indiana, and the Wizards’ offense will have to work hard for every basket.  During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense.  In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings.  Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense.  Indiana is simply a terrible match-up for Washington.

Indiana was taken to the brink by Atlanta in the first round.  The Pacers survived in seven games, but Indiana struggled versus the Hawks all season so it came as no surprise.  Atlanta just owns some nice match-up edges over the Pacers.  This series is just the opposite with Indiana owning all the match-up edges by a significant margin.  The Pacers have to play tonight in a quick turnaround spot while Washington is well rested after last playing six days ago.  But basketball is a game of rhythm, and extended time off isn’t always a good thing.  The Pacers lost at home in Game 1 in their series versus the Hawks, so we can be assured that Indiana will bring their best effort tonight in order to avoid a repeat of that.  Indiana has been inconsistent over the second half of the season, but we expect a strong performance tonight, especially since they dominated Washington during the regular season.  We’ll lay the points with Indiana in Game 1 on Monday night.

10* Play PACERS (-).

Dallas and San Antonio have played to a pattern in this series, and we expect that to continue in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon.  The Mavericks and Spurs opened the series with a very low-scoring game in which San Antonio won 90-85.  The next two games were high-scoring with point totals of 205 and 217.  Both teams shot extremely well in those two games, but the shooting cooled off in Game 4 when the teams combined to score just 182 points.  Dallas and San Antonio then played back-to-back high-scoring affairs in Games 5 and 6 with point totals of 212 and 224.  The Mavericks and Spurs shot the lights out in the last two games as they combined to shoot 48.7% (165-339) from the field and 44.9% (35-78) from three-point land.  The teams cooled way off in Game 4 after back-to-back hot shooting games, and we expect that to repeat today, especially since this is Game 7.

The Mavericks’ offense is at their best when they are able to play fast and get easy baskets in transition.  Dallas has been able to do that in four of the six games so far, and the Mavericks won three of those games with the other loss only coming by six points.  San Antonio is best served in slowing the pace down versus Dallas, and in the two games they did so, they held the Mavericks to just 85 and 89 points.  The Spurs won both of those games, and in a win or go home situation, we expect San Antonio to slow this game way down.  NBA Game 7’s have a strong historical trend of being lower scoring since the team’s seasons are on the line.  We expect that to be the case in this game, so we’ll play Dallas and San Antonio Under the total on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Memphis was embarrassed by Oklahoma City in Game 6 on their home court as they lost by 20 points (104-84).  The Grizzlies also lost their cool, and that got Zach Randolph suspended for this game.  However, Memphis is a resilient and deep team, and we expect them to bounce back strong tonight, even without one of their best players.  Memphis is 2-1 in Oklahoma City in this series; their lone loss came in Game 1 when they were simply in a terrible spot.  The Grizzlies are a perfect 2-0 SU when playing off a loss in this series, and playing well off a loss is something Memphis has done all season.  In fact, when playing off a SU loss, Memphis is 25-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 30-4 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS when playing off a SU loss based on tonight’s pointspread.

Oklahoma City has not played well at all in this series, especially their offense.  They’ve shot just 41.1% (211-513) from the field in the six games, and things are not likely to change tonight.  Memphis holds a big edge over the Thunder inside the paint, and because of that, Oklahoma City has not been able to get easy baskets.  Overall, Memphis has out-scored Oklahoma City 294-228 inside the paint, and they’ve made 220 field goals to the Thunder’s 211 made field goals.  Oklahoma City simply cannot stop Memphis inside.  The Grizzlies will shoot the ball much better from the perimeter tonight (21.4% in Game 6) and make their free throws (67.9% in Game 6); they shoot 73.7% from the line on the season.  We’ll take the points with Memphis as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Houston and Portland played the first four games in this series Over the total.  That wasn’t the case in Game 5 when Houston won 108-98 in a lower scoring game.  However, the pace of that game was fast, just as the rest of the games between the Rockets and Blazers have been.  The teams combined to take 174 shots in Game 5 despite the lower score.  Houston and Portland were bad from three-point land as they shot just 34.0% (17-50) from beyond the arc.  There were also minimal free throw attempts in the game with the teams combining for just 41 total attempts.  Prior to Game 5, both teams had scored 101 points or more in all eight meetings this season.  The winning team has scored 108 points or more in every meeting this season, and there’s nothing we’ve seen to indicate that trend will not continue.

Portland played fast all season as they averaged 97.5 possessions per game which ranked them #10 in the NBA.  Houston played at a faster pace this season as they averaged 98.8 possessions per game which ranked them #5 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  Over their last five games, the Blazers’ offense has been terrific in averaging 114.2 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Rockets have averaged 114.8 points per game.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with Portland allowing 114.8 points per game and Houston allowing 114.2 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect another high-scoring game between the Rockets and Blazers on Friday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Game 5 was tailor made for Los Angeles.  The Clippers returned home off a 21-point blowout loss (118-97) the game before, and they were playing in front of their home fans after the incident with their owner.  Los Angeles fed off their emotion, and the officials were also influenced in their calls.  The Clippers won 113-103 after shooting 48.7% (37-76) from the field and 40.0% (8-20) from three-point land.  Los Angeles held a huge advantage from the free throw line as they were handed a whopping 41 attempts while Golden State only took 19 free throws.  The Clippers hit 75.6% (31-41) from the line, and that was simply the difference in the game.  Tonight’s game will return to normal with the game on the Warriors’ home court; the Clippers will not get all of the favorable calls.  Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to match the emotion from Game 5, and they won’t be able to repeat their outstanding performance on the court.

Golden State played well in the last game, but they were at a disadvantage as noted above.  The Warriors’ offense is still in tremendous form as they are averaging 104.8 points per game over their last five games while shooting 46.9% from the field.  In eight games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State is averaging 107.1 points per game.  After the All-Star break, Golden State went 8-6 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 5th best defense.  Their poor performance in Game 5 can be forgotten because the Warriors are a much better defensive team than they showed in that game.  Golden State is 3-1 versus the Clippers at home this season with their lone loss coming by just 2 points.  We’ll take the points with the hungry and motivated home underdog in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Brooklyn and Toronto have played a highly competitive series, and that was certainly expected.  There’s not much that separates the Nets and Raptors, so we expect tonight’s game to be close throughout, especially with this being a crucial Game 5.  Brooklyn blew a golden opportunity in Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series after storming back from a 17-point deficit.  The game was tied going into the fourth quarter, but Brooklyn was terrible over the final 12 minutes of play as they scored just 12 points.  Overall, Brooklyn’s offense was poor as they shot just 41.2% (28-68) from the field and an ugly 20.0% (4-20) from three-point land.  The Nets also blew their opportunities from the free throw line as they missed 10 attempts (19-29) in the game.  Brooklyn’s best player in this series has been Joe Johnson, but he was terrible in Game 4 as he scored just 7 points in 41 minutes of action.  His offense will bounce back strong as will the entire Brooklyn team.

Toronto showed a lot of grit after their loss in Game 3.  In that game, the Raptors stormed back from a 15-point deficit midway thru the fourth quarter and tied the game with less than a minute to play.  They ended up losing, and we expected a bit of a hangover for Game 4.  That did not happen, and the fact that it didn’t now sets Toronto up for a poor showing tonight.  The Raptors were also fortunate they won Game 4 as they scored 20 points or less over the final three quarters; they scored 35 points to jump out to a 13-point lead in the first quarter.  Brooklyn basically led wire-to-wire in Game 1 on Toronto’s home court, and they led going into the fourth quarter of Game 2.  The Nets know they can win and play well in Toronto, and off a loss, we expect a big effort tonight.  The teams have alternated wins in every game, and we expect that trend to continue in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play NETS (+).

Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play when they got blown out by 14 points (100-86).  The Grizzlies bounced back strong in Game 2 when they won outright (111-105) in overtime as 7-point underdogs.  Memphis also played up to their potential in Games 3 and 4 as both went to overtime with the Grizzlies winning by 3 points and losing by 3 points.  The last three games have all been close, and we expect more of the same in Game 5 tonight.  Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 24-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 26-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss.

Oklahoma City has not played well at all in this series, especially their offense.  They’ve shot just 39.9% (138-346) from the field in the four games, and things are not likely to change tonight.  Memphis holds a big edge over the Thunder inside the paint, and because of that, Oklahoma City has not been able to get easy baskets.  Overall, Memphis has out-scored Oklahoma City 208-154 inside the paint, and they’ve made 152 field goals to the Thunder’s 138 made field goals.  Oklahoma City simply cannot stop Memphis inside.  The Grizzlies will shoot the ball much better from the perimeter tonight (30.0% in Game 4) and make their free throws (56.5% in Game 4); they shoot 73.8% from the line this season.  We’ll take the points with Memphis as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Atlanta has been a surprise in this series, and they couldn’t have asked for anything more than being tied at two games apiece heading into Game 5.  The Hawks were the only team to make the playoffs with a losing record, and while some of their poor record can be attributed to injuries, the Hawks still have a lot of issues.  Atlanta’s offense is not a consistent unit, and after they scored 101 points in Game 1, they’ve only averaged 90.3 points per game over the last three games.  Atlanta’s defense is also extremely poor on the road as they allow opponents to score 103.6 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  In their 101-85 loss at Indiana in Game 2, the Hawks allowed the Pacers to shoot 52.9% (36-68) from the field and 47.1% (8-17) from three-point land.  In this critical Game 5 tonight, we expect a strong offensive performance from the Pacers, and Atlanta’s poor defense will be a contributing factor.

Indiana was the best team in the NBA in the first half of the season, but the Pacers dropped way down in the second half.  The reasons are unknown, but we fully expect Indiana to play like the early season team tonight, especially since the winner will take control of this series.  The Pacers played a solid second half in Game 4 as they out-scored Atlanta 49-40 after trailing by 6 points at the half.  Indiana should carry over that momentum into this game, and they’ll jump on the Hawks from the opening tip.  The Pacers play exceptional defense at home; they give up just 88.3 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  Indiana is the superior team, and we expect them to bring their ‘A’ game tonight and win this game by double digits.   

10* Play PACERS (-).

Los Angeles and Golden State have played seven times this season, and the Clippers have won four of those games.  All seven games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game.  The winning team scored 105 points or more in six of the seven games, and both teams scored 96 points or more in six of the seven games.  Golden State played fast all season as they averaged 98.5 possessions per game which ranked them #6 in the NBA.  Los Angeles also played at a fast pace this season as they averaged 98.4 possessions per game which ranked them #7 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we expect that to be the case this afternoon.

The Warriors’ offense was bad in Game 3 as they only scored 96 points after shooting 41.6% (37-89) from the field and an ugly 19.4% (6-31) from three-point land.  Golden State was also terrible from the free throw line as they hit just 66.7% (16-24).  The Warriors’ offense is much better than that performance, so we expect them to bounce back with a tremendous effort this afternoon.  Over their last five games, Golden State has averaged 109.8 points per game.  Los Angeles’ offense was also poor in Game 3 as they only scored 98 points after shooting a woeful 28.6% (8-28) from three-point land and an awful 43.5% (10-23) from the free throw line.  Despite that poor effort, the Clippers have averaged 112.4 points per game over their last five games.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Clippers and Warriors on Sunday afternoon.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Miami holds a 2-0 series lead as the scene shifts to Charlotte.  The Heat won the first two games because of hot shooting, and a lot of help from the refs.  Miami shot 49.0% (70-143) from the field and 43.5% (20-46) from three-point land.  The Heat also took 55 free throws in the first two games which gave them a free 40 points from the line.  Both games went Over the total despite being played at slow paces.  During the regular season, Miami and Charlotte played extremely slow as their games only averaged 90.1 possessions per game.  They played the slowest games of the eight playoff series, and since the first two games went Over the total due to above average shooting, we expect things to revert back to normal tonight, especially considering the situation for the Bobcats.

Charlotte played Miami tough despite losing, and since they return home in a must-win game, we expect the Bobcats to do what they do best, and that is defend.  The Bobcats played much better at home this season, especially on defense.  Charlotte gives up just 94.3 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 36.0% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Miami and Charlotte played Under the total in regulation time in both games played on this court earlier this season.  Miami’s offense has not been good on the road recently as they’ve scored 93 points or less in three of their last four road games while only averaging 92 points per game.  Charlotte knows their best way to win is to play slow, half-court basketball while relying on their defense.  We expect a slow pace, and that will result in a low-scoring game between the Heat and Bobcats on Saturday night. 
 
10* Play UNDER the total.

Chicago is down 0-2 in this series, but they could very well be up 2-0.  The Bulls took a lead into the fourth quarter of both games, but they played terrible over the final 12 minutes of each game and handed Washington a pair of wins.  In Games 1 and 2, Chicago out-scored Washington 150-142 over the first three quarters.  In the fourth quarter and overtime, the Wizards out-scored the Bulls 61-42.  Chicago’s defense gave up 102 points in Game 1 and 101 points in Game 2 and allowing over 100 points in something the Bulls don’t do too often.  In fact, Chicago has allowed more than 100 points just 18 times in 84 games this season.  Off back-to-back poor defensive efforts, we expect the Bulls to play exceptional defense tonight.  In three regular season meetings, Chicago held Washington to just 92 points per game, including a 78-point output on the Wizards’ home floor earlier this month.  

Washington is fortunate to be in the position they are, and the fact that they are up 2-0 in this series is definitely a shock.  The Wizards may be a tad overconfident now, and the pointspread is certainly too high considering the circumstances.  When Chicago played at Washington earlier this month, the Bulls were only 2.5-point road underdogs.  There’s no reason the Wizards should be laying more points in this spot, especially in a playoff game.  Washington has been a better road team this season as they own 24 wins away from home and only 22 wins on their home court.  The Wizards shot way above expectation in the first two games; they hit 48.0% (74-154) from the field and 38.2% (13-34) from three-point land.  Chicago’s defense only gives up 43.2% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  It’s highly unlikely the Wizards can repeat their performances from Game 1 and 2 tonight, especially against a focused Bulls’ defense.  We’ll take the points with a motivated and hungry Chicago team tonight as they get themselves back in this series in a game they should win outright.

10* Play BULLS (+).

Golden State and Los Angeles are tied at one game apiece as the series changes locations.  The Warriors won Game 1 109-105, but they were crushed in Game 2 by 40 points (138-98).  That was an embarrassing loss for Golden State, and with tonight’s game being played on their home court, we expect a strong bounce back effort.  Prior to their win on Monday night, Los Angeles was just 3-4 SU over their previous seven games.  The Clippers couldn’t have played any better than they did as they shot 56.6% (47-83) from the field and 48.0% (12-25) from three-point land.  They were also phenomenal from the free throw line as they hit 91.4% (32-35) of their attempts.  Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to repeat that outstanding performance, especially since their level of play versus playoff teams since the All-Star break was not any good.  Los Angeles went just 6-4 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 13th worse defense during that span.  The Clippers held Golden State to 6.2 points below their season average, and that’s not going to happen in back-to-back games.

The Warriors were playing some of their best basketball of the season prior to their Game 2 loss.  The Warriors were 11-5 over their previous sixteen games and 21-10 over their previous thirty-one games.  Golden State’s offense is still in tremendous form despite their poor effort on Monday night.  The Warriors are averaging 114 points per game over their last five games while shooting 47.5% from the field and 38.5% from three-point land.  In six games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State is averaging 106 points per game.  After the All-Star break, Golden State went 8-6 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 5th best defense.  Their poor performance in Game 2 can be forgotten because the Warriors are a much better defensive team than they showed in that game.  Golden State went 2-0 versus the Clippers at home this season, and since they come into this game off an ugly 40-point defeat, we’ll take the points with the motivated home underdog on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Portland and Houston played to a 122-120 final in overtime in Game 1 on Sunday night.  The game went Over the total thanks to overtime as the teams were tied at 106 at the end of regulation.  However, the pace of that game was extremely fast, and the teams combined to take 202 shots from the field.  The reason the game wasn’t higher scoring in regulation was due to the poor shooting and missed free throws.  Portland only shot 43.3% (42-97) from the field and 33.3% (9-27) from three-point land.  Houston only shot 41.0% (43-105) from the field and 22.9% (8-35) from three-point land.  The Blazers and Rockets also combined to miss 24 free throws after getting to the line a total of 79 times.  All four regular season games were also played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game.  The winning team scored 111 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 101 points or more in all four games.  Those trends continued in Game 1 of this playoff series, and there’s no reason they won’t repeat once again tonight. 

Portland played fast all season as they averaged 97.5 possessions per game which ranked them #10 in the NBA.  Houston played at a faster pace this season as they averaged 98.8 possessions per game which ranked them #5 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  Over their last five games, the Blazers’ offense has been terrific in averaging 112.4 points per game on 46.0% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Rockets have averaged 109 points per game.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with Portland allowing 107.8 points per game and Houston allowing 108.2 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect another high-scoring game between the Blazers and Rockets on Wednesday night.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Washington won Game 1 on Sunday night 102-93 after out-scoring Chicago 30-18 in the fourth quarter.  The Wizards shot the ball well in that game as they hit 48.6% (36-74) from the field.  Washington was also quite aggressive as they got to the free throw line 35 times which was nine more attempts than Chicago.  All five starters scored 13 points or more.  Chicago only shot 42.0% (34-81) from the field and an ugly 25.0% (5-20) from three-point land.  Despite that, Washington still trailed by 3 points heading into the fourth quarter.  The Wizards simply won the final 12 minutes, but they’ll be hard-pressed to stay competitive in Game 2 tonight.  Washington is a team that needs to play fast while scoring a lot of points to be at their best.  The Wizards have been held to less than 100 points 17 times on the road this season; they went just 6-11 SU in those games.  The Wizards will not get their preferred fast pace tonight in Chicago, especially since the Bulls are off a poor defensive game.

Chicago was playing good basketball at home prior to their loss on Sunday night.  The Bulls were 14-4 SU over their previous 18 home games, and coming off a disappointing loss, we expect the Bulls to play with max effort tonight.  Chicago’s defense was poor, and it was just the 17th time this season they’ve given up more than 100 points.  The Bulls tend to bounce back strong off a poor defensive effort, especially at home.  Chicago is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home after allowing 100 points or more with their seven wins coming by an average of 15.4 points per game.  Chicago has won 14 straight home games by 7 points or more, so there’s still a lot of value with the Bulls on their home court, even with tonight’s posted line being higher than Game 1.  We’ll back the motivated home team in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play BULLS (-).

Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play.  The Grizzlies were playing hard down the stretch just to make the playoffs, and their final regular season game against Dallas went to overtime before the Grizzlies won and got the #7 seed.  Memphis was playing on tired legs on Saturday night; they got out-scored 56-34 in the first half before losing 100-86.  Off that blowout loss, we expect the Grizzlies to bounce back strong tonight.  Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 23-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 25-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss.  The Grizzlies’ defense was poor in Game 1, but they only gave up 94.6 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land on the season.  Memphis’ defense will play much better tonight.

Oklahoma City won by 14 points, but their overall play wasn’t that impressive.  The Thunder capitalized on making free throws as they hit 87.5% (28-32) from the line.  Other than that, the Thunder did not do anything else well.  Memphis out-scored Oklahoma City 50-34 inside the paint, and they made 33 field goals to the Thunder’s 34 made field goals.  Memphis was awful from the free throw line as they only hit 58.1% (18-31) from the line.  The Grizzlies were also terrible from three-point land as they shot an ugly 18.2% (2-11) from beyond the arc.  Oklahoma City can’t stop Memphis inside, and the Grizzlies will shoot the ball much better from the perimeter and make their free throws; they shot 73.8% from the line this season.  We’ll take the points with Memphis as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Portland and Houston played four times this season, and all four games went Over the total.  All four games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game.  The winning team scored 111 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 101 points or more in all four games.  Portland played fast all season as they averaged 97.5 possessions per game which ranked them #10 in the NBA.  Houston played at a faster pace this season as they averaged 98.8 possessions per game which ranked them #5 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we do not expect that to change just because it’s the playoffs.

Portland’s offense has been strong all season as they average 106.7 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Blazers’ offense has been even better in averaging 108 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field.  Houston also possesses a potent offense that scores 107.7 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Rockets are averaging 108.2 points per game despite playing without James Harden in their last game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Blazers and Rockets on Sunday night.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Portland comes into the playoffs playing some terrific basketball.  The Trail Blazers are 9-1 SU over their last ten games; they were just 4-9 SU over their previous 13 games.  The difference came when LeMarcus Aldridge returned to the court from injury.  His presence gives Portland an interior force on both ends of the court which makes the Blazers an extremely difficult team to beat, especially by margin.  Portland’s offense has been outstanding over their last five games as they’ve averaged 108 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  In four games versus Houston this season, the Blazers scored 101 points or more in every game while averaging 109.5 points per game.  Portland’s offense will have success once again tonight, especially since the Rockets have one of the worst defenses in the playoffs.

Houston is not in good form right now.  The Rockets are just 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS over their last eleven games.  Three of those losses came versus playoff teams, and four of their five wins came by 7 points or less.  Since the All-Star break, Houston only went 6-8 SU in 14 games versus playoff teams.  The Rockets had a negative efficiency margin in those games.  Houston has the 14th worst defense since the All-Star break, so their losing record was due to poor play.  Portland also had a losing record versus playoff teams after the All-Star break; the Blazers went just 7-8.  However, Portland had a positive efficiency margin while having the 4th best offense and the 6th best defense.  Clearly, the Rockets deserved a losing record while the Blazers deserved a winning record.  These two teams are much closer than the pointspread indicates, and there’s simply a lot of value with the underdog.  We’ll take the points with Portland on Sunday night as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Golden State and Los Angeles played four times this season, and the teams split the series two games apiece.  All four games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.5 possessions per game.  The winning team scored 105 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 98 points or more in three of the four games.  Golden State played fast all season as they averaged 98.5 possessions per game which ranked them #6 in the NBA.  Los Angeles also played at a fast pace this season as they averaged 98.4 possessions per game which ranked them #7 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we do not expect that to change just because it’s the playoffs.

The Warriors will be without Andrew Bogut due to a fractured rib, and his absence makes Golden State smaller and without a strong defensive presence inside the paint.  Golden State’s offense has been strong all season as they average 104.3 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 38.0% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Warriors’ offense has been incredible in averaging 114.8 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  Los Angeles also possesses a potent offense that scores 107.9 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Clippers are averaging 111.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Clippers on Saturday afternoon.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Golden State is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  The Warriors are 10-5 SU over their last fifteen games and 20-10 over their last thirty games.  Four of Golden State’s last five losses have come by single digits which means they had a legitimate shot at winning.  Golden State’s offense is in tremendous form right now as they are averaging 114.8 points per game over their last five games.  The Warriors are shooting 48.1% from the field and 40.7% from three-point land.  In four games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State averaged 107.3 points per game while going 2-2 SU in those games.

Los Angeles is just 3-3 SU over their last six games.  The Clippers were 17-2 SU over their previous nineteen games.  All three of their recent wins came against non-playoff teams while their three losses came to Portland, Oklahoma City, and Dallas who all made the playoffs.  Going back to the All-Star break, Los Angeles is just 6-4 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 13th worse defense during that span.  To compare, Golden State went 8-6 SU versus playoff teams after the All-Star break while possessing the 5th best defense.  That’s a significant difference that greatly favors the Warriors, especially since they are getting a significant amount of points in this game.  These two teams are much closer than perceived, and the pointspread has been over-inflated since Golden State is now without Andrew Bogut.  The Warriors still hold the defensive edge and we’ll take the points with the Warriors in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WARRIORS (+).

Brooklyn has shown a big difference in their home and road splits since the start of 2014.  At home, the Nets have been virtually unbeatable, racking up an incredible 22-4 record.  On the road, the Nets have been mediocre at best while going just 12-13.  When the Nets lose on the road, they tend to lose big as nine of their thirteen losses have come by 7 points or more.  Six of the losses were complete blowouts in which they lost by 16 points or more.  Brooklyn’s average road loss in 2014 has come by a whopping 14.3 points per game.  The Nets have lost their last two road games, and their defense allowed a total of 229 points on 54.3% (89-164) shooting from the field and 43.2% (19-44) shooting from three-point land.  Brooklyn also fouls too much, and those two opponents took 47 free throw attempts.

Toronto has played terrific basketball since the All-Star break, especially when facing winning teams that also made the playoffs.  The Raptors only went 6-6 SU in 12 games, but they had a positive efficiency margin in those game.  Toronto has the sixth best offense and the third best defense since the All-Star break, so they should have had a better record than 6-6.  To compare, Brooklyn went 8-5 versus playoff teams, but they had a negative efficiency margin while having the 13th best offense and the 7th best defense.  Clearly, the Nets deserved a losing record while the Raptors deserved a winning record.  Toronto has been strong at home all season; they are 26-15 on their home floor.  The Raptors crushed Brooklyn 96-80 on this court back in January, and while we do not expect that big of a win, we do expect a Toronto win and cover in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Dallas and Memphis come into tonight’s game with identical 49-32 SU records on the season, and because of that, they are battling for playoff positioning.  The winner of tonight’s game will get the #7 seed and face either the Thunder or the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, while the loser will get the #8 seed and have to face the Spurs.  With the way San Antonio has been playing since the All-Star break, teams are looking to avoid them.  That means the Mavericks and Grizzlies will bring their best efforts tonight, and this game will be played like a playoff game.  Both teams are also intent on reaching the 50-win plateau and that only gives this game more intensity.  Dallas knows what to expect from Memphis tonight, and they are preparing to play the Grizzlies’ style of basketball.  “It will be that kind of game, slow down and grind it,” said Vince Carter.  “That’s how it’s going to be. We’ll have to stick our nose in there and fight back.”

Memphis has one of the best defenses in the NBA, and the Grizzlies also play at an extremely slow pace.  Memphis allows just 94.4 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Grizzlies are also in good defensive form as they’ve held their last three opponents to just 91, 90, and 95 points.  Two of those games were on the road, including a game in Phoenix against the high-scoring Suns’ offense.  Memphis is catching a Dallas offense that isn’t in the best of form right now.  Overall, the Mavericks average 104.8 points per game, but they’ve failed to reach their average in their last four games.  Dallas is not known for their defense, but the Mavericks have been strong recently in holding their last five opponents to just 95.2 points per game on 43.9% shooting from the field and 33.1% shooting from three-point land.  This game will have a playoff atmosphere and plenty of defensive intensity, and that means we’ll see a low-scoring game between the Mavericks and Grizzlies on Wednesday night.

<b>10* Play UNDER the total.</b>