Los Angeles survived their brutal 7-game series with Memphis. All seven of those games were extremely physical with a lot of fouls called on both teams. But this series with the San Antonio Spurs figures to be played totally different. The Clippers preferred style of basketball is to get out and run while scoring easy baskets in transition. They were unable to do that against the stout Memphis defense, but they

Los Angeles comes in off a brutal 7-game series with the Denver Nuggets. That grind had to take a lot out of the Lakers, and with just one day to recover, we do not anticipate them being at their best tonight. Los Angeles has a losing road record (16-20) this season, including a 1-2 mark in the playoffs. The Lakers did not fare too well against Oklahoma City during the regular season as they went just 1-2 SU in those games with the two losses coming by 15 and 9 points. Only one of those games was played in Oklahoma City and that was Los Angeles

Philadelphia played much better in Game 1 than expected. The Sixers lost 92-91 which was impressive considering that they played that game with just 1 day of rest after knocking off the #1 seeded Bulls in six games. Their Game 6 win over Chicago was dramatic; the Sixers hit two free throws to win the game with less than 3 seconds left to play. The fact that this young team with zero playoff experience was able to play without a hangover in Game 1 was very encouraging. And since they are off a loss coming into tonight

After trailing 3-1 in this series, Denver has won the last two games to force tonight

Denver bounced back strong in Game 5 after losing at home in Game 4. The Nuggets won 102-99 on Tuesday night, and we expect them to play a better game tonight. Denver won while shooting just 15.8% (3-19) from the three-point land. The starters also out-scored the second unit by just 2 points (52-50). That is a positive sign for the Nuggets, and if they can play a better overall game tonight, there should be no reason they won

Chicago

New York is on the brink of elimination as they come into tonight

Denver certainly wants to forget about Game 4. The Nuggets blew a fourth quarter lead after scoring a total of just 37 points in the second half. The 88 points scored by Denver in the game tied their lowest point total since February 15th when they scored just 84 points in a loss at Dallas. Off the terrible performance, we expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong tonight, especially point guard Ty Lawson. Denver

Denver comes into tonight

All three of the games in this series have come right down to the wire with Los Angeles owning two 1-point victories and Memphis owning a 7-point win in Game 2. And since Memphis is off an 87-86 loss in Game 3, we anticipate a strong bounce back effort from the Grizzlies tonight. Despite being down 2-1 in the series, Memphis has actually played the better basketball. The Grizzlies blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 and they blew a 7-point lead in the fourth quarter in Game 3. If not for that, Memphis could very well be up 3-0 in this series. The fourth quarter has hindered Memphis as they

Denver bounced back strong in Game 3 after losing the first two games in Los Angeles. The Nuggets won 99-84 on Friday night, and we expect them to play a better game tonight. Denver won while scoring less than 100 points and shooting just 39.8% (37-93) from the field. That is a positive sign for the Nuggets, and if they can play a better overall game tonight, there should be no reason they won

The Spurs are coming off a pair of easy blowout wins in Games 1 & 2 and both games totaled just 197 points and stayed Under the total. However, those final scores were misleading as the pace of both games was still fast and Utah is likely to perform much better offensively in Game 3 at home tonight. This game also fits a 62% Over situation and we now get adjusted line value as this total is nearly 5 points lower than the original Over/Under line in Game 1.

My re-scoring pace model totaled 205 and 207 total points in Games 1 & 2 based on the total possessions and normal offensive efficiency for each team. The Jazz shot well below their expected field goal percentages in the past two games, hitting just 42% and 34% from the field, including just 17% from three-point range on Wednesday. Those numbers are likely to improve tonight on Utah's strong home court where the Jazz like to push the pace and play at a fast tempo.

These teams played two regular season games with full lineups on both teams (Ginobili missed the other two games) and those two games with full lineups totaled 211.5 and 219 based on my re-scoring pace model as the tempo was fast in both games. Both teams have been strong offensively this season as the Spurs average 103.8 points per game and 47.9% FG (versus opponents that allow just 96.9 ppg and 44.9%), while the Jazz average 99.3 points and 45.4% FG (versus opponents that allow just 96.9 ppg and 44.9%). Utah has also been a much stronger offensive team at home where they average 102 points per game and 46% FG and they will now be facing a Spurs' defense that has been suspect on the road this season where they permit 99 ppg and a terrible 47% FG.

10* Play OVER the total.

The Jazz have always been a much stronger team at home as they enjoy a unique home court advantage due to the thin air and altitude of Salt Lake City. This home/road dichotomy was extreme and very evident this season as the Jazz are 25-8 SU at home, compared to just 11-24 SU on the road, including those two blowout losses at San Antonio in Games 1 & 2 of this series.

Those results have now vastly inflated the line in Game 3 tonight as my power ratings using all games this season makes San Antonio only a 3.5-point road favorite, so we get nice line value, and the Jazz also fit a strong 65% ATS bounce-back situation after their embarrassing 15 and 31 point losses on the road.

The Jazz should bounce back with a strong effort in front of their home fans tonight as the Jazz are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Utah is 19-13 ATS in all home games this season, compared to 14-20 ATS on the road. Utah has also been an excellent offensive team at home where they average 102 points per game and 46% FG and will now be facing a Spurs' defense that was suspect on the road this season where they permit 99 ppg and a terrible 47% FG.

9* Play JAZZ (+).

These teams were 3-0 Under in the three regular season meetings, but surprisingly both playoff games have gone Over the total. This has now created solid value with the Under in Game 3 tonight as the pace of play was actually slow in both of those games. In fact, my re-scoring pace model totaled just 183.5 and 181.5 in the past two games. The only reason those games went Over the total is because both teams shot well above their normal percentages from the field.

Game 1 was a strangely played game as Memphis blew a 27-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost 99-98 after dominating for three quarters. Los Angeles got excellent production out of their second unit as they combined to score 49 of the Clippers 99 total points. The Clippers also shot 50% from the field for the game after shooting in the mid 30

Los Angeles held serve at home and the series goes to Denver with the Lakers up 2 games to none. Game 1 was a fluky result with the Lakers winning by 15 points (103-88). We saw a truer result in Game 2 with the Lakers winning by just 4 points (104-100). These two teams are just about equal across the board and the recent 4-point margin fell right in line with the previous results between the Lakers and Nuggets this season. In four regular season meetings, every game was decided by single digits. In the eight quarters played so far in this series, six of them were either tied or won by just 3 points or less after 12 minutes of play. That shows just how close these two teams are on the court.

Denver

Miami held serve at home and they head to New York with a 2-0 series lead over the Knicks. The Heat played well as they scored 104 and 100 points in the two games on 50.3% (72-143) shooting from the field and 40.5% (17-42) shooting from three-point land. Miami has also benefited from a favorable whistle in their two home games; they

Game 1 was a strangely played game that we do not expect to repeat itself. Memphis blew a 27-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost 99-98 after dominating for three quarters. Los Angeles got excellent production out of their second unit as they combined to score 49 of the Clippers 99 total points. Caron Butler also scored 12 points, but he broke his left hand and he is out indefinitely. That means Los Angeles

Denver certainly wants to forget about Game 1. The Nuggets played a terrible game as they scored just 88 points on 35.6% (32-90) shooting from the field and 28.6% (4-14) shooting from three-point land. The 88 points scored by Denver was their lowest point total since February 15th when they scored just 84 points in a loss at Dallas. That snapped a string of 37 games in which Denver

Denver comes into tonight

Boston played a terrible Game 1 on Sunday night as they scored just 74 points while scoring 18 points or less in three of four quarters. The Celtics shot just 39% (32-82) from the field and they failed to hit a three-pointer going 0-11 from beyond the arc. They also attempted just 13 free throws in that game. But despite all of that, Boston trailed by just 4 points late in the game. The Celtics lost all of their momentum when Rajon Rondo got ejected for bumping a ref late in the game; Atlanta took advantage and closed the game out. Rondo is suspended for tonight

New York couldn

Los Angeles will be making their first playoff appearance in 6 seasons when they play at Memphis tonight. While some individual Clippers have playoff experience, the team as a whole does not, and we anticipate some nervous energy tonight. Los Angeles will also face a different style of basketball tonight after playing nothing but fast-paced, high-scoring teams over their final nine games of the season. The Clippers

These two teams met in the conference finals last season with Dallas beating Oklahoma City in four of the five games played. This season, the Thunder won three of the four head-to-head meetings between the teams. Tonight

Washington has had a terrible season; the Wizards go into tonight

Cleveland has had a miserable season; the Cavaliers come into tonight

Golden State is simply waiting for the season to end. The Warriors are playing with a mash unit and head coach Mark Jackson has turned the rest of the season over to his young guys. Golden State will start four rookies once again tonight; they lost their last game at home by 12 points after scoring just 87 points in that game. Golden State will also be playing their first three games in three nights set of the season beginning tonight in Dallas. The Warriors have lost six consecutive games coming into tonight while going just 1-5 ATS in those games. Every one of those six losses has come by 8 points or more, including a road loss at Denver by a whopping 39 points. Golden State

Oklahoma City played their worst offensive game of the season on Monday night. The Thunder scored just 77 points after shooting an ugly 37.5% (27-72) from the field and an abysmal 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land. Oklahoma City also missed 11 free throws in that game as they shot just 62.1% (18-29) from the line. The Thunder actually had 52 points scored at the half in that game, but they played an embarrassing second half when they scored a total of 25 points in 24 minutes of basketball. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both played awful games as they only combined for 33 points on 32.4% (11-34) shooting from the field, including a dismal 8% (1-12) shooting from three-point land. Prior to their awful game on Monday night, Oklahoma City had scored 115 points in each of the previous two games. We expect them to get back to their scoring ways in a major way in this game tonight.

Phoenix has played little defense as of late. The Suns have allowed 105 points or more in three straight games while allowing 47% shooting from the field in those games. Phoenix

San Antonio is in a terrible scheduling spot for tonight

These two teams just played five days ago with Los Angeles winning 100-98 at Oklahoma City. That was the third meeting of the season between the Thunder and Clippers, and it was also the third high-scoring game between the two teams. All three of the games played between the teams this season have seen 198 points scored or more; the three games had an average of 205 points scored. Oklahoma City

Memphis has been playing in some important playoff implication games recently. The Grizzlies have faired well in those games as they are 8-2 SU over their last ten games. But tonight

Utah won 103-91 at Houston on Wednesday night; it was just their 10th road win of the season. The Jazz played that game with a short rotation and they

Phoenix has been playing better basketball of late; the Suns are 5-1 SU and ATS over their last six games. But the Suns have been in terrific scheduling spots for those games. However, that is not the case tonight as Phoenix will be playing their fourth game in six nights and their sixth game in nine nights. Five of those six games have also come on the road. Phoenix also has a huge game on deck at Houston on Friday night; the Suns are battling with the Rockets for the eight and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Phoenix will also play tonight

These two teams just met nine days ago with Boston beating Miami by 19 points (91-72). The Heat played an inexplicably bad game, and it was perhaps their worst effort of the season. Miami

Houston has won three straight road games coming into tonight; the Rockets won at Chicago, Los Angeles, and at Sacramento last night. However, off such high profile wins against teams like the Bulls and Lakers, the Rockets

Philadelphia comes into tonight

These two teams just played on Thursday night with the Clippers winning 93-85 in Sacramento. It was the second 8-point victory for Los Angles over the Kings this season; they won 108-100 back in early March. Both games were highly competitive as seven of the eight quarters between the two teams were decided by 4 points or less with the other quarter being just a 6-point margin. The two close games played so far this season have not been an aberration as the last five games between the Kings and Clippers have all been decided by 8 points or less. And there

Oklahoma City comes into tonight

Boston comes into tonight

Memphis is in a brutal scheduling spot for tonight

Philadelphia and Miami both come into tonight

Minnesota is finally feeling the loss of point guard Ricky Rubio. The Timberwolves were able to be competitive when they first lost Rubio to a season-ending knee injury, but they

Both teams played last night and their results were very different. Atlanta played at home against the Knicks, and they won that game 100-90. Philadelphia played at Washington, and they were blown out by the Wizards 97-76 as an 8-point road favorite. Off different results, we expect Philadelphia to be more focused on tonight

Sacramento

This total is priced based on last year

Dallas beat Miami in the NBA Finals last season to win the championship. And they won the final game on Miami

Phoenix lost 107-100 at home last night to San Antonio. That loss was the Suns

San Antonio is in a terrible scheduling spot for tonight

Milwaukee has drastically changed their style of play since trading for Monta Ellis.

San Antonio is not in a good scheduling spot for this game tonight. The Spurs beat their in-state rival last night; San Antonio beat Dallas by 17 points (104-87). Off that big win, San Antonio must now travel and play on a back-to-back set with this game also being the middle game of a 3 games in 3 nights set as the Spurs return home to host Philadelphia tomorrow night. San Antonio

Minnesota comes into tonight

Oklahoma City comes into tonight

These two teams just played on Tuesday night with Orlando winning 104-98 in overtime. Tonight

Miami has been a team playing at a fast pace all season. They are averaging 102.5 points per game while shooting an incredible 48.3% from the field and 39.4% from three-point land. The Heat come into tonight

Phoenix won again last night as the Suns beat the Jazz 120-111. That win was Phoenix

Philadelphia

This will be the third meeting of the season between Miami and Orlando. The teams have split the series so far with each team winning on their home court. Miami

This game between Washington and San Antonio has a rare scheduling dynamic to it, especially considering this year

Philadelphia is a fast-break team that can score on any defense. The Sixers

Memphis is playing terrific basketball right now. The Grizzlies have won five consecutive games and nine of their last ten games overall. But one of their recent losses came against Phoenix, and it was the Grizzlies first loss of the season against a losing team. Memphis is 12-1 against teams with losing records, and they view tonight

The last two games between Utah and Philadelphia were high-scoring affairs with 219 and 201 points scored. We expect a similar game tonight, especially since the Jazz and Sixers have made lineup changes to improve their offenses. Utah head coach Tyrone Corbin has shifted Gordon Hawyard to the second unit after he started every game this season for the Jazz. The move was to improve the second unit

Memphis is playing terrific basketball right now. The Grizzlies have won four consecutive games and eight of their last nine games overall. Included in their recent wins was a 104-103 home victory over Golden State. That final score was a lot closer than the game actually was as Memphis held an 18-point lead at one point before the Warriors made a big run to get back into the game. The Grizzlies shot 50.7% (37-73) from the field in that game and they also got to the free throw line 38 times. They scored 44 points in the paint compared to just 22 points in the paint for Golden State. And they also had 15 fast break points to just 6 fast break points for the Warriors. So despite it being a one point game, Memphis dominated that game in every facet, and we can expect more of the same tonight.

Golden State returns home from a 5-game, post All-Star break East Coast road trip. The Warriors played terrible basketball as they went just 2-3 SU as their offense scored 85 points or less in four of the five games. Tonight will be Golden State

New York comes into tonight

Despite their 17-20 record, the Phoenix Suns are quietly playing some good basketball right now. Since the All-Star break, the Suns are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS while averaging 93.7 points per game on offense and allowing just 87 points per game on defense. Phoenix was also playing good basketball before the break as they went 6-6 SU with four of their six losses coming by 7 points or less. Phoenix hasn

This isn

Chicago is one of the best teams in the NBA; the Bulls come into this game with a terrific 30-8 record. But 6 of their 8 losses have come on the road, including a 98-82 loss at Philadelphia back in early February. Chicago does not match-up well with the Sixers as they

Indiana has played just one game since the All-Star break; New Orleans has played three games. The Pacers have the much fresher legs coming into tonight

Memphis is a good team that comes into tonight

The All-Star break did not come at a good time for Miami. The Heat were on a roll prior to the break; they won eight consecutive games all by 12 points or more. Their offense was incredible in those games as they scored 102 points or more in seven of the eight games. However, the All-Star break disrupted their momentum, and Miami

The All-Star break did not come at a good time for Oklahoma City. The Thunder took an NBA best 27-7 record with them into the break. Oklahoma City was on a 5-game winning streak in which their offense was playing spectacular basketball as they averaged 111 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land in those five games. But all five of those games came on their home court, and the All-Star break disrupted their momentum. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook did not get any rest over the break because they both played in the All-Star game. And those two guys make up the majority of the Thunder

The All-Star break came at the perfect time for a team like Toronto. The Raptors needed some time off to rest and get healthier in order to get some of their players back on the court. Toronto has been off since last Wednesday, and the time off has allowed Linas Kleiza

The oddsmakers incorrectly priced this game when they opened the East as a 1-point favorite as sharp money immediately came in on the East and we certainly agree with that move. The Eastern Conference has the better overall teams in the NBA this season, and they certainly have a better roster than the Western Conference in this game.

The East has a formidable starting five with familiarity as the Miami Heat is represented by LeBron James and Dwayne Wade; the other three starters are Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, and Dwight Howard. The East also has a powerful second unit that knows each other real well since there are two Celtics on the roster in Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. Their second unit also features another player from the Heat, Chris Bosh, and another guy from the Bulls in Luol Deng. Not only that, but the East will also be coached by Chicago

New York and Miami play for the second time this season, but this game will have a totally different look than the first one. The Heat won the first match-up 99-89 but the Knicks played that game without Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith wasn

Both teams are playing their last game before the All-Star break, and we do not expect much defensive intensity, especially from these two young teams. Sacramento played at Miami last night and the Kings allowed 120 points in that game. It was the third time over their last five games in which they allowed 114 points or more in a game. In their last five games, the Kings allowed 110 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land. The last time Sacramento faced Washington, they allowed the Wizards to score a whopping 136 points and since they are in terrible defensive form, we can expect another high offensive output from Sacramento

Philadelphia comes into tonight

San Antonio

We played against Oklahoma City last night and we

Denver was in dire straights for the first week of February; the Nuggets lost five consecutive games straight-up and against the pointspread. We went against Denver in three of those games and we were fortunate enough to get three wins. Since their slide, the Nuggets have gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. They could actually be 3-1 SU if not for their loss at Memphis on a last-second tip-in. Injuries decimated the Nuggets, and that was the reason for their struggles. But guys have been returning to the lineup, and the biggest return came at Memphis when center Timofey Mozgov played over 15 minutes in that game. Expectedly, he was a bit rusty but head coach George Karl expects Mozgov to be more effective tonight.

These two teams have played in some wild, high-scoring games over the last two years and we expect another one tonight. Philadelphia comes in on a 2-game losing streak as their offense and defense each failed them in one of the games. The Sixers allowed 103 points in their loss at Orlando on Wednesday night; the Magic shot an incredible 53.3% (40-75) from the field and 60% (15-25) from three-point land. In their 82-75 home loss to Dallas on Friday night, the Sixers

Phoenix will be playing their fourth game in five nights, and Los Angeles

These two teams have played in some wild, high-scoring games in the past and we expect another one tonight. Denver comes in off one of their worst offensive games of the season after scoring just 84 points in their loss at Dallas on Wednesday night. The Nuggets shot a dismal 35.7% from the field and an ugly 22.2% from three-point land. Denver was also putrid from the free throw line as they hit just 58.1% of their attempts. But despite their poor shooting, the Nuggets

Portland is a mess right now. The Blazers come into tonight

Denver was in dire straights over the last two weeks. Injuries decimated the Nuggets, and we were able to take advantage and play against Denver a few times. However, the tide has turned in Denver

Miami has won their last three games in blowout fashion; they beat the Wizards by 17 points, the Hawks by 20 points, and the Bucks by 18 points. But those types of blowout wins over inferior opponents are expected by the Heat. Tonight

These two teams have played in some wild, high-scoring games in the past and we expect another one tonight. Minnesota comes in on a 3-game losing streak as their defense has been terrible in their last couple of games. The Timberwolves have allowed 204 points on 45.4% (79-174) shooting from the field and 40% (16-40) from three-point land over their last two games. And things shouldn

Both teams played last night, and they both won road games so neither has a scheduling advantage coming into tonight

We played against Oklahoma City last night and notched a solid win on the Sacramento Kings. We

Chicago has been steamrolling teams recently; the Bulls have won four straight games all by 20 points or more. The impressive thing about is the fact that all four of those games have come on the road. However, the Bulls are playing on the tail-end of a 9-game road trip with a spotlight game in Boston on deck. This is the ultimate flat spot for Chicago, a chance for them to lay off the gas and get in some much needed rest for their big game against the Celtics. Derrick Rose will be a game-time decision tonight with a sore back; he only played 22 minutes in Chicago

Oklahoma City has the best record in the NBA as the Thunder come into tonight

Golden State comes into this game at just 8-14 on the season, but the Warriors have played much better basketball than that record indicates. The Warriors have been involved in a lot of close games, and in fact, five of their last six losses have all come by single digits. Head coach Mark Jackson altered his starting lineup and the team took notice.

Los Angeles comes into tonight

These two teams have played in some wild, high-scoring games in the past and we expect another one tonight. Houston comes in with some confidence after winning 99-90 in Denver on Monday night. The Rockets

Dallas is on a 3-game losing streak, but the Mavericks were in a difficult scheduling stretch for those games. Dallas was playing on the backend of a 5 games in 7 nights and 3 games in 4 nights sequence, including a back-to-back home to road set to finish off the week. However, the Mavericks have had a full 3 days off to recuperate from that unfavorable schedule so they should be well-rested and ready to get back into the win column tonight. Dallas will also be looking to avenge an ugly 22-point home loss (117-93) to the Nuggets from back in late-December so they certainly have plenty of motivation for this game tonight.

Denver is struggling mightily right now; the Nuggets have lost three straight games and five of their six games overall. There are two major reasons for their recent bad play. The first is the scheduling fact that the majority of their opponents lately have had extended rest before playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver. And that is the exact case tonight for the Mavericks. The second reason is the slew of injuries the Nuggets have right now as starters Danilo Gallinari and Timofey Mozgov are out with left ankle sprains. Corey Brewer took a leave for a personal matter while Nene, Aaron Afflalo, and Rudy Fernandez are all game-time decisions tonight. The Nuggets have no togetherness right now with all of the missing pieces, and since Dallas is looking to snap their losing streak, we

Miami has been a team playing at a fast pace this season. But when Dwyane Wade missed six games with an injury, the Heat became a jump-shooting team that settled for a lot of three

Oklahoma City has the best record in the NBA as the Thunder come into tonight

Phoenix comes in off a 99-90 win in Atlanta last night. The Suns shot the lights out as they hit 51.9% (41-79) from the field and 45.8% (11-24) from three-point land. That big offensive performance sets the Suns up in a negative situation tonight, especially when we consider their scheduling spot. Phoenix is playing their fourth game in five nights, and it

Indiana continues to fly well under the radar right now. The Pacers come into tonight

The Lakers came through for us last night in their 93-89 win at Denver as 4-point road underdogs. Los Angeles was in a terrific scheduling spot for that game as they had a full two days to prepare while they were catching the Nuggets on a back-to-back set. However, the Lakers are now the team in the negative scheduling spot for this game tonight as they are playing on a back-to-back road set while Utah was off last night. Los Angeles will also be playing another game in the thin air and altitude, and considering four of their five starters played more than 33 minutes last night, we can anticipate the Lakers to be a bit fatigued in the second half in this game.

Utah comes into this game off back-to-back losses, including a loss in their last home game. The Jazz are also looking to avenge a pair of losses to the Lakers this season, including a 90-87 home loss in overtime three weeks ago. Kobe Bryant played over 42 minutes in that game and he took a whopping 31 shots. It

Los Angeles is finally playing all-around good basketball right now. The Lakers have won back-to-back games after going just 2-5 over their previous 7 games. The offense has finally come together as the Lakers have scored 106 points in each of their last two games. We expect their offense to continue their scoring ways tonight in Denver as the Lakers will be facing a Denver team that likes to play at a fast pace with little regard to defense. Los Angeles will also be fresh for tonight

New York has been through a rough and tumultuous season; the Knicks come into tonight

These two teams just met on Sunday night with Los Angeles winning 109-105 at Denver as a 6-point road underdog. We played the Clippers in that game because they were catching the Nuggets in a terrible scheduling situation. However tonight, we