What we saw in Game 5 on Thursday night was out of line from the previous four games in this series. Dallas and Miami both played exceptional offensive games while their defenses failed to show up. The Mavericks scored 112 points as they shot 56.5% (39-69) from the field and an incredible 68.4% (13-19) from three-point land. Dallas cannot shoot any better than that, and we expect a regression in tonight

The fourth quarter was not kind to the Miami Heat in Game 4 on Tuesday night. They coughed-up a 9-point lead over the last 10 minutes of the game when Dallas went on a game-winning 21-9 run to even the series up at 2. Miami scored just 14 points in the fourth quarter after making just 5 of their 15 shots. Overall, the Heat did not play a good offensive game as they shot just 42.7% (32-75) from the field and an abysmal 14.3% (2-14) from three-point land. LeBron James played a terrible game as he scored just 8 total points on 3-11 shooting. Off a loss in which Miami played an overall poor game, we expect the Heat to bounce back strong tonight, especially LeBron James.

Miami

Miami bounced back strong with a tremendous effort in Game 3 in their 88-86 win over Dallas on Sunday night. Miami

After Miami pulled away from Dallas to win Game 1 92-84, the Heat were looking good late in Game 2 as they held a 15-point lead midway through the fourth quarter. The Mavericks closed the game on a monster 22-5 run which was capped by a Dirk Nowitzki game winner with less than 4 seconds left to play. So we

Game 1 was tight throughout until Miami pulled away over the final 3 minutes of the game. The Heat used what was essentially a 15-8 run (eliminating Jason Kidd

The NBA Finals get underway tonight as Dallas opens the series in Miami. The Mavericks and Heat have both played spectacular basketball in the playoffs so far, and this series doesn

Chicago just couldn

Oklahoma City blew a golden opportunity to tie the series at 2 games apiece in Game 4 on Monday night. The Thunder held a 15-point lead with just 5 minutes left to play in the game, but Dallas went on a 17-2 run to take the game into overtime. The Mavericks

Going into the fourth quarter of Game 3 on Sunday night, Miami only held a 3-point lead over Chicago. But the Heat put together a strong final 12 minutes and out-scored the Bulls 28-20. Miami won the game by 11 points (96-85), but the game was a lot closer than that for the majority of the four quarters. Off back-to-back losses, we really expect Chicago to come with their

Game 3 played out similarly to Game 1. Dallas won the series opener by 9 points and they won by 6 points on Saturday night. However, their wins over the Thunder in both games were not

Dallas picked up right where they left off as they beat Oklahoma City 121-112 in Game 1 on Tuesday night. That win by the Mavericks was their seventh straight and it came after an 8-day layoff. Dallas has also gone 14-0-1 ATS over their last 15 games so it

What we saw in the first half of Game 1 on Sunday night was exactly what most expected in this series. Miami and Chicago are two supremely talented teams that are just about equal across the board. The game was tied at 48 after the first 24 minutes of basketball, and the second half was thought to play out the same with the game coming right down to the wire. However, that did not happen as the Bulls dominated the last 24 minutes of play as they out-scored the Heat 55-34. Miami

The Western Conference Finals get underway tonight as Dallas hosts Oklahoma City. Game 1 has a peculiar setup to it as the Mavericks have been off for 8 days after sweeping the Lakers in the last round. Oklahoma City will be playing their fifth game over the last 8 days as their series with Memphis went a full 7 games. Based on that fact alone, one may assume that Dallas has a huge advantage for tonight

The match-up everybody predicted to see in the Eastern Conference finals begins tonight as the Bulls host the Heat with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. The Bulls and Heat were the top two seeds, and both handled their business in their first two playoff series. Chicago had a little more trouble with their two opponents; the Bulls beat the Pacers 4-1 and beat the Hawks 4-2. Miami defeated their two opponents in relative quick order; the Heat beat the Sixers 4-1 and they also beat the Celtics 4-1. Both teams have played overall good basketball in the playoffs so far, but they

Oklahoma City took a 3-2 series lead after their 27-point blowout win over Memphis in Game 5 on Wednesday night. The Thunder won 99-72 as the Grizzlies played their worst game of the playoffs; Memphis shot just 35.9% (28-78) from the field and 25% (2-8) from three-point land. But we

There

Boston was feeling good when they held an 11-point lead over Miami in Game 4. The Celtics appeared to be on their way to get themselves back into a series tied at 2 apiece, but their lead slowly evaporated and the game ended up in overtime. Miami was too strong in the extra session as they out-scored the Celtics 12-4 which concluded a 29-17 run by the Heat over the game

Chicago

Memphis took a 2-1 series lead after their huge fourth quarter and overtime comeback in Game 3 on Saturday night. The Grizzlies trailed by as many as 16 points in that game, and they trailed by 13 points going into the last 12 minutes of play. Memphis out-scored Oklahoma City 23-10 in the fourth quarter to take the game into overtime where they completed the comeback with a 101-93 win. Both teams played terrible on offense as they each shot less than 38% from the field and they went a combined 7 of 31 from three-point land. The Grizzlies won the game at the free throw line as they attempted 21 more shots (44-23) resulting in a +9 margin at the charity stripe.

The Thunder played their worst game of the playoffs so far as they scored just 93 points. And it was their lowest point total in their last 14 games played. The Thunder shot just 36.6% (34-93) from the field and 19% (4-21) from three-point land. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to score 45 points, but that duo only shot 36.9% (17-46) from the field and 30% (3-10) from three-point land. Off such a terrible offensive performance, and now trailing the series 2-1, we expect a big bounce back game from Oklahoma City tonight, especially from Durant and Westbrook.

Oklahoma City has shown a strong pattern of playing extremely well after playing an extremely poor game all season long. In fact, they

Boston got back into this series with a 97-81 win over Miami in Game 3 on Saturday night. Things did not look good for the Celtics as they trailed at the half, but Boston put together a terrific second half to earn the comeback win. The Celtics played a phenomenal third quarter as they out-scored Miami by 13 points (28-15), and that was where they won the game. Boston shot the ball incredibly well all game long as they hit 50% (37-74) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land. They also hit 14 of their 17 free throw attempts for the all-around perfect offensive game. But after Rajon Rondo suffered a nasty elbow injury in that game (he played with noticeable excruciating pain), we have to question just how effective the Celtic

Chicago

This series has not gone as many expected. Dallas won both games in Los Angeles to take a 2-0 series lead back home to Dallas for Games 3 and 4. And the Mavericks made a big fourth quarter comeback in Game 3 to take a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Lakers. In fact, Dallas has owned the fourth quarter in this series as they

This series did not begin as many expected. Dallas won both games in Los Angeles to take a 2-0 series lead back home to Dallas for Games 3 and 4. The Mavericks did not have a good history of playing well against the Lakers in Los Angeles prior to the last two games so the fact that they won both games is somewhat shocking. The Lakers were in control of Game 1 when they took a 7-point lead into the fourth quarter. But the Mavericks out-scored them 25-16 over the final 12 minutes of the game to win 96-94. And they rode that momentum in a 93-81 win in Game 2 on Wednesday night; Dallas led that game by as many as 15 points so there was nothing phony about their big win.

With the Lakers down 0-2, this is an obvious must-win game for them. Los Angeles couldn

After their shocking 103-95 loss to Atlanta in Game 1, Chicago bounced back with a much better performance in Game 2. The Bulls won 86-73 to even the series as the teams head to Atlanta for Games 3 and 4. Chicago won the last game with their suffocating defense as they held the Hawks to just 73 points on 33.8% (26-77) shooting from the field and 23.1% (3-13) from three-point land. We expected the Bulls to stymie the Hawks in that last game, especially after Atlanta won Game 1 when they shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field and 53.8% (7-13) from three-point land. That performance in the series opener was a fluke, and we just do not see the Hawks coming close to that type of production again, especially since the Bulls have one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.

Chicago earned the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference after their fantastic 62-20 regular season. The Bulls did not play like that record in the first round, even though they beat the Pacers 4-1. Nor did they play like their record in Game 1, but the Bulls brought their

Chicago

Chicago

This series started off with a high-scoring Game 1 on Sunday afternoon. Memphis beat Oklahoma City 114-101 which smashed the closing total by 20 points. The Grizzlies scored and shot way above their seasonal averages as they hit 49.4% (44-89) from the field on their way to 114 total points. It was just the fourth time the Grizzlies scored more than 110 points in their last 29 games so there

The much anticipated playoff match-up between the Celtics and Heat was hardly a contest in Game 1. Miami controlled the game from start to finish; the Heat led the game by 19 points at one point and they also held a 15-point lead at halftime. Boston actually shot 50% (12-24) from three-point land and that still wasn

Both teams went through interesting first round match-ups with their opponents. Atlanta beat Orlando in 6 games while Chicago took care of Indiana in 5 games. The Hawks figured to be in a close battle with the Magic as both teams are rather ordinary clubs, and in a 7-game series, they figured to go back and forth. On the other hand, the Bulls figured to manhandle the Pacers, a team that had a losing record and did not belong in the playoffs. But Chicago took them lightly, and Indiana gave the Bulls a much closer fight than expected. However, we expect this series to go a lot different, especially for the Bulls.

Chicago earned the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference after their fantastic 62-20 regular season. The Bulls did not play like that record in the first round, even though they beat the Pacers 4-1. Chicago won three of those games by 6 points or less before they turned things on in Game 5 and waxed Indiana by 27 points (116-89). That game was a truer reflection of the Bulls

The much anticipated playoff match-up between the Celtics and Heat begins this afternoon. Coming into this season, Boston and Miami were thought to be the two best teams in the Eastern Conference. But at season

These two teams played four times during the regular season with Memphis winning three of those four games. All four of those games were high-scoring as every game went Over the total with at least 206 total points scored in every game. However, these two teams have different personnel now, especially on the defensive end of the court. Memphis has Shane Battier who matches-up extremely well with Kevin Durant. Oklahoma City has Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed who match-up well with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol inside the paint. Those three key match-ups will dictate this series, and they will also make these games lower scoring than what we saw in the four regular season meetings.

Memphis

Memphis and San Antonio have played 9 times this year, and six of those nine games have gone Over the total, including Games 1,4, and 5 of this series. Despite the fact that these teams have played high-scoring games, the oddsmakers have lowered the total 7

Oklahoma City was looking for the series sweep on Monday night, but they came up 3 points short as Denver salvaged a 104-101 win. With the Nuggets on the brink of elimination, we saw them play a fast, aggressive game. Denver took 83 shots in the game including 19 three

Memphis ran away with Game 4 as they waxed San Antonio by 18 points (104-86). The Grizzlies played a terrific offensive game as they shot 50.6% (41-81) from the field and 41.7% (5-12) from three-point land. They also hit 17 of their 21 free throw attempts, so Memphis played an all-around perfect game. That win gave them a 3-1 series lead as they head back to San Antonio for Game 5 tonight. But we do not expect Memphis to repeat what they did in Game 4, especially on the road against a Class-A team like the Spurs.

San Antonio is an incredible 37-6 on their home court this season with one of those six losses coming to Memphis in Game 1 of this series. The Spurs have won the other three meetings with the Grizzlies on their home court; all three wins coming by 6 points or more. After the Spurs lost the series opener, they were an 8-point favorite in Game 2, up from the 6

Indiana has given Chicago a tougher fight than expected. The first three games were all close with the Bulls

The last three games of this series have not been played with much offensive efficiency. Orlando has scored just 88, 84, and 85 points while shooting a combined 38.7% (89-230) from the field and an abysmal 20.3% (15-74) from three-point land including a dreadful 2-23 from beyond the arc in Game 4. The Magic have been very good in getting to the free throw line (116 attempts) in this series, but they

The Nuggets were basically in a must-win situation on Saturday night when they returned home to their strong home court, down 0-2 in the series. Denver failed to get it done and lost outright as a 5-point favorite, 94-97, and trailed by as many as 10 points in that game. Denver now faces a 0-3 deficit in this series and they know it is over as no NBA team has ever overcome such a deficit, going 0-94 all-time in a best-of-seven playoff series.

Home favorites have historically been a poor play when facing a 0-3 deficit and the underdog covers nearly 70% ATS in this situation. The logic is simple as the favorite is normally a team that should have been more competitive in the series, yet has drastically underachieved. This normally leads to less effort in Game 4, while the underdog remains focused and wants to close out the series since they are playing a decent opponent.

The opposite occurs with home underdogs as these teams normally play hard and we saw two perfect examples this past weekend when both Indiana and Philadelphia won outright as home underdogs. The Knicks did not win as a home underdog in Game 4 on Sunday, but that situation was different as New York was actually favored in Game 3 by -3

Portland overcame a 23-point deficit in Game 4 and won 84-82, so this series is now tied at 2-2 which makes Game 5 tonight extremely important for both squads. This should lead to plenty of defensive intensity on both sides of the court. We saw this strong defensive play in Game 1 which totaled just 170 points and also in Game 4 on Saturday which totaled only 166 total points.

Games 2 and 3 were a bit higher scoring, but they still totaled just 190 and 189 points, so overall the four playoff games have averaged only 179 points per game. More importantly, the pace of play has been extremely slow in all four games with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 176.5, 174, 177.5, and 173.5 for an average re-score of 175.5 per game. My mathematical re-scoring percentage model has totaled just 176, 184, 179, and 175.5 in the four playoff games for an average re-score of just 178.5.

Both teams are also in fine current form, especially on the defensive end of the court. Portland has held 14 of their last 17 opponents to less than 100 points, while Dallas has held their opponents to less than 100 points in eight straight games. The two defenses should be able to continue their dominant ways here because the match-ups on both ends of the floor give the stop units the advantage. Portland

Memphis and San Antonio have played 7 times this year, and four of those seven games have gone Over the total, including Game 1 of this series, however the past two playoff games have both stayed Under the total and this has now caused the oddsmakers to lower the total 8 points from the Game 1 line. This drastic move down is incorrect and has created solid line value as the pace has remained fast in this series and my re-scoring pace model totaled 204.5 and 193 in Games 2 and 3, with my re-scoring percentage model totaling 203 and 200.5 in the past two games.

Overall, the seven games between these teams has averaged 194 points per game this season with median score of 199 points. My re-scoring pace model has averaged 196 per game with a median score of 193, while my re-scoring percentage model has averaged 199 points per game with a median score of 199.5 point per game.

The match-ups are favorable for high-scoring games as the Spurs have a terrific perimeter offense, while the Grizzlies have a strong inside game which means both teams should be able to generate easy buckets. They both like to play the transition game as well, so the pace in their games is also fast. San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich thinks his team should run a little more in order to create easier baskets in transition.

Los Angeles took a 2-1 series lead with their 100-86 blowout win over New Orleans on Friday night. The Lakers jumped out early and never looked back; the Hornets only held a 2-point lead over the 48 minutes of play. Despite the big 14-point win by the Lakers, they didn

We saw the truth between these two teams in Game 1. Oklahoma City and Denver battled throughout that game and the game wasn

This has been a pretty even series so far as all three games have been highly competitive. With tonight

New Orleans pulled off a shocking upset in Game 1 when they beat the Lakers 109-100 as 10-point underdogs. The Lakers responded with an 87-78 win in Game 2, and even though they only won by 9 points, Los Angeles controlled that game from start to finish. The Lakers held a comfortable 15-point lead midway through the fourth quarter before the Hornets made the final score somewhat respectable. Los Angeles should come out full throttle tonight as they do not want to give New Orleans any confidence, especially with two games to play on their home court.

New Orleans suffered an unfortunate injury in late March when David West torn his ACL and was lost for the season. Any hopes the Hornets had for a run in the playoffs ended when West left the court. The Hornets

The first two games of this series have not been played with much offensive efficiency. Orlando has scored just 93 and 88 points while shooting a combined 39.9% (61-153) from the field and an abysmal 24.4% (11-45) from three-point land. The Magic have been very good in getting to the free throw line (66 attempts), but they

New York let the first two games in this series get away from them. The Knicks led both games with less than 20 seconds left to play, but the Celtics hit two clutch shots to escape with fortunate wins. The Knicks certainly deserved to win both games, and since they return home trailing 0-2 in the series, we don

The Mavericks and Blazers played a higher scoring game (190 total points) on Tuesday night as the game went Over the total by just 6 points. The 56-point second quarter was the culprit, especially after the teams combined to score 26 points over the final 5 minutes of the first half. The 190 points in Game 2 is misleading because the pace was slow but both teams shot the ball really well; they combined to shoot 48.6% (69-142) from the field and 45.5% (15-33) from three-point land. My re-score pace model only shows 174 points scored and my re-score percentage model shows 184 points scored which proves that the 190 actual points scored were not deserved.

Game 1 easily went Under the total and there is actually still some value left in tonight

With the shift to Philadelphia for Game 3, and the Sixers down 0-2, tonight

This series has been a lot closer than expected. Indiana has taken the Bulls down to the wire twice; Chicago

Memphis and San Antonio have played 5 times this year, and four of those five games have gone Over the total including Game 1 on Sunday afternoon. The five games between the two teams have had an average of 203.4 points per game scored while only once has one team failed to score at lease 100 points in a game. The match-ups are perfect for high-scoring games as the Spurs have a terrific perimeter offense while the Grizzlies have a terrific inside game which means we see both teams able to generate easy buckets.

They both like to play the transition game as well, so the pace in their games is also fast. San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich thought his team should have run a little more in Game 1 in order to create easier baskets in transition.

Denver blew a golden opportunity to steal Game 1 in Oklahoma City after they blew a 13-point lead. The Nuggets played a terrific game despite the loss; they shot 50.6% (39-77) from the field with five different players scoring in double digits. Denver also got to the free throw line 33 times in that game which shows how aggressive they were in attacking the basket. But they failed to cash in on those free throws as they made only 63.6% of those attempts, way below their seasonal free throw average of 74.6%. If the Nuggets play like they did in Game 1 and make their free throws, then they should once again take the Thunder right down to the wire.

Since March 1st, the Nuggets are 15-7 so they

Portland was in control of Game 1 with just about 3 minutes left to play before the win was taken away from them by the refs. Dallas was awarded with free throws on almost every possession down the stretch, and Portland

The Blazers and Mavericks played a low-scoring game on Saturday night as a total of 170 points were scored. Prior to that game, the head-to-head meetings between Portland and Dallas were high scoring this year, but those results were misleading. We can eliminate the first two games because the Mavericks didn

New York let Game 1 get away from them. The Knicks led by 12 points (51-39) at the half, but they only scored 34 points in the second half and lost 87-85 on a last second Ray Allen three-pointer. New York thoroughly out-played Boston, and the Celtics were very fortunate to win that game. The Knicks are still playing good basketball despite losing on Sunday night; they are 7-2 over their last nine meaningful games. New York is also covering pointspreads (7-2 ATS) during that stretch including three straight-up wins as underdogs. They also beat three playoff teams over those nine games so it

Philadelphia showed a lot of grit on Saturday afternoon. The Sixers jumped out to a big lead (31-19) after the first quarter and they couldn

Saturday