Denver is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Indiana against the Pacers.  The Nuggets hit the road after a 126-113 win as 2-point home underdogs over Cleveland on Wednesday night.  Denver shot 53.1% (51-96) from the field and 42.3% (11-26) from three-point land in that game.  The Nuggets also scored 124 points in their previous game which resulted in a 125-124 loss at Houston against the Rockets.  Denver was underdogs in both of those games while their offense scored 250 points on 52.2% (95-182) shooting from the field, 41.8% (23-55) shooting from three-point land, and 94.9% (37-39) shooting from the free throw line in their last two games.  Denver’s offense is likely to regress in this game, especially since they will be playing on the road.

Indiana returns home off a 109-100 loss at Boston.  The Pacers had last night off, and off a loss, we expect a peak performance tonight, especially on their home court.  Indiana has alternated wins and losses over their last 15 games, so if they continue that pattern tonight, a win will be had.  Indiana’s offense is averaging 106.5 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Their offense will have success tonight against a Denver defense that gives up 111.2 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll back Indiana in this game on Friday night.    

9* Play PACERS (-).

Philadelphia played a 4-game West Coast road trip that concluded on March 14th.  The 76ers then returned home for a pair of games against the Mavericks and Celtics which they won.  Philadelphia then hit the road once again for their last game which resulted in an overtime loss in Orlando after blowing a 15-point halftime lead.  The 76ers had to travel once again for tonight’s back-to-back road set in Oklahoma City against the Thunder.  The fact that Philadelphia was winning so big against Orlando is somewhat of a mystery since they shot just 38.2% (39-102) from the field and 26.5% (9-34) from three-point land.  Philadelphia’s defense has been poor on the road where they give up 109.9 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.

Oklahoma City is off an embarrassing 16-point (111-95) home loss to Golden State on Monday night.  The Thunder’s offense was terrible in that game as they shot just 42.5% (37-87) from the field and an ugly 19% (4-21) from three-point land.  Russell Westbrook had an off game as he only scored 15 points on 25% (4-16) shooting from the field and 16.7% (1-6) shooting from three-point land.  The 95 points scored by Oklahoma City were their lowest output at home this season.  The Thunder average 109.9 points per game on 47% shooting from the field at home, and that matches-up perfectly against Philadelphia’s poor defense on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Detroit has no business being a favorite right now regardless of opponent, and that’s especially true with them being on the road.  The Pistons are just 1-3 SU over their last four games, and they are 3-10 SU over their last thirteen road games.  Detroit’s offense broke out with 112 points in their last game which resulted in a 17-point win over the Phoenix Suns.  Prior to that outburst, Detroit had scored 96, 83, and 75 points in their previous three games.  Over their last five games, Detroit’s offense is only averaging 95.6 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 29.8% shooting from three-point land.  Overall, the Pistons only average 99.5 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land on the road, so don’t expect their offense to repeat their last game’s performance.

Brooklyn has had a terrible season, but the Nets are in a good spot tonight to bring one of their best efforts.  Brooklyn has lost their lost two games, and both of those games came at home.  The Nets were highly competitive in those defeats as they only lost by 3 points to the Celtics and by 7 points to the Mavericks.  This will be their third consecutive home game, and after back-to-back close games, the Nets will break thru tonight.  Brooklyn’s offense is in good current form; the Nets are averaging 108.8 points per game on 44% shooting from the field and 40.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That offense will face a Detroit defense that is giving up 105.6 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll take the points with Brooklyn in this game on Tuesday night.    

10* Play NETS (+).

Portland will conclude their 5-game road trip tonight in Miami.  The Trail Blazers have won three of their four games so far, so regardless of what happens tonight, they’ll return home from a successful trip.  Portland has won their last two games outright as underdogs; they beat San Antonio as 11-point underdogs, and last night they beat Atlanta as 2-point underdogs.  Portland’s win last night came by 16 points (113-97) after shooting 50.6% (44-87) from the field and 44.4% (8-18) from three-point land.  Portland had three starters play 32 minutes or more while all five starters played 26 minutes or more.  The Trail Blazers will now play on a back-to-back road set with this also being their fifth road game over the last eight days.  

Miami comes into tonight’s game in excellent current form.  The Heat are 6-1 SU over their last seven games, and they’ve won seven consecutive home games by at least 7 points or more.  Miami had last night off, so they have the scheduling edge over Portland in this game.  Miami’s offense is in terrific current form as they’ve averaged 110.6 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland’s defense gives up 110 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Sunday night.    

9* Play HEAT (-).

Cleveland has played mediocre basketball since the All-Star break.  The Cavaliers have gone just 6-6 SU, including just 2-4 SU on the road.  Cleveland has won their last two games, but both of those games were on their home court.  The Cavaliers will now make the long trip out to the West Coast and face the Clippers who are primed for a big performance.  Cleveland has also been dealing with numerous injuries to their best players.  Kyrie Irving is nursing a knee injury, Inman Shumpert has a shoulder sprain, Kyle Korver has been out with a foot injury, Derrick Williams has a right quadriceps contusion, and Kevin Love is working himself into game shape after missing significant time after knee surgery.  Cleveland is far from a polished team team right now, and tonight’s game is just a terrible spot for them to be competitive.

Los Angeles returns home off an ugly 129-114 loss in Denver.  That was an expected loss for the Clippers as they were playing on a back-to-back set while also making their second trip into altitude over a four day span.  Los Angeles also played that game shorthanded, so the result can be ignored.  The Clippers come into tonight’s game on a 3-game losing streak, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak effort tonight.  Los Angeles will be back to full strength as Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will return to the starting lineup.  The Clippers are 29-11 SU at home where they average 108.4 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land.  Cleveland’s defense gives up 109.3 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Los Angeles in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Los Angeles is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Denver.  The Clippers lost 97-96 at home last night to the Milwaukee Bucks after blowing a fourth quarter lead.  Four of their five starters played 30 minutes or more, and because of that, head coach Doc Rivers will not be taking a full team to Denver for tonight’s game.  Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan did not make the trip, so that leaves Los Angeles extremely thin inside the paint.  The Clippers will be playing on a back-to-back set in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  This will also be their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.

Denver comes into this game in excellent current form.  The Nuggets have won three straight games, and four of their last five games overall.  Denver’s offense is terrific at home where they are averaging 113.3 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Nuggets’ offense will take advantage of the undermanned Los Angeles defense in this game, especially since the Clippers will be playing on tired legs.  Los Angeles is giving up 108 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.    

9* Play NUGGETS (-).

Memphis recently snapped a 5-game losing streak, but the Grizzlies are in a tough scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Atlanta.  Memphis is just 4-6 SU since the All-Star break with one of their wins coming last night in Chicago against the Bulls.  The Grizzlies did not shoot the ball well in that win; Memphis hit just 42.4% (36-85) from the field and 35.5% (11-31) from three-point land.  Memphis had two starters play 36 minutes or more while five guys played 24 minutes or more.  The Grizzlies will now play on a back-to-back road set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  

Atlanta last played on Monday night in San Antonio; the Hawks lost 107-99.  Atlanta has had the last two nights off, and off a loss and a return home, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Atlanta’s offense averages 106.4 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Hawks will face a Memphis defense that comes into this game in poor current form; the Grizzlies have given up 105.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 45.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play HAWKS (-).

New Orleans has played mediocre basketball since the All-Star break.  The Pelicans traded for DeMarcus Cousins, but so far, his addition has yet to make an impact on the team’s performance.  New Orleans is just 4-6 SU with one of their wins coming in overtime.  New Orleans played five of those ten games on their home court, so it’s not a good sign that they’ve struggled.  The Pelicans did beat Portland 100-77 at home last night, but the Trail Blazers were in a terrible spot, so the big win wasn’t a surprise.  New Orleans won by 23 points despite shooting just 28.6% (6-21) from three-point land and 60% (18-30) from the free throw line.  Their win last night had more to do with Portland’s ineptitude rather than any dominance displayed by New Orleans.

Miami last played on Sunday night in Indiana; the Heat lost 102-98.  Miami has been playing without Goran Dragic (eye), but he is expected to return to the court tonight.  Dragic makes Miami’s offense go, so his return will boost the performance and production tonight.  The Heat have had the last two nights off, and off a loss and a return home, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Miami’s offense averages 105.7 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  New Orleans’ defense gives up 104.5 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play HEAT (-).

Philadelphia will play their fourth and final game of their West Coast road trip tonight at Golden State.  The 76ers opened their trip with a 114-108 overtime loss at Portland.  Next up was a game in Los Angeles against the Clippers where they blew a 4-point lead in the fourth quarter after getting out-scored 37-21 en route to a 112-100 loss.  In their last game, Philadelphia beat the Lakers 118-116 after overcoming a halftime deficit.  Now the 76ers are stepping way up in class against Golden State, and off their last three draining games, we expect Philadelphia to be non-competitive in this game.  Philadelphia’s defense is in poor current form; the 76ers have allowed an average of 118 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field over their last five games.

Golden State comes into tonight on a 3-game losing streak.  That losing streak began with an ugly 13-point (99-86) home loss to the Boston Celtics.  That was Golden State’s lone home game over their last eight games, and with a return home tonight, we expect a peak performance.  Don’t read too much into Golden State’s 22-point loss at San Antonio on Saturday night because the Warriors rested four of their starters.  Golden State has had two full days off since, and with everybody returning to the court, the Warriors will be primed for a big game, especially on the offensive end of the court.  Golden State’s offense is terrific at home where they are averaging 120.3 points per game on 51.3% shooting from the field and 41.6% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Golden State in this game on Tuesday night.    

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

This is a difficult scheduling situation for the Lakers as they must travel and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver after a draining, high-scoring 116-118 loss at home versus the 76ers last night.  The Lakers' defense was terrible as they allowed Philadelphia to score those 118 points while shooting 51.9% from the field, including 41.7% from three-point range.  The Lakers are now 1-9 SU in their past ten games and they will have no time to fix their problems tonight, especially on the road where they are 8-27 SU this season while allowing 113.1 points per game on 48.4% FG shooting.

Denver enters tonight in solid current form with a 5-2 SU/ATS record over their past seven games, including back-to-back wins by +33 points.  Overall, the Nuggets have won their past five games by +75 points combined.  Denver is rested and will be focused as they are playing with revenge after losing the most recent meeting in Los Angeles in January.  The Nuggets are still 6-2 ATS in the past eight head-to-head meetings in this series and Denver has been a strong offensive team at home this season where they average 112.8 points per game on 47.8% FG shooting.  This is a solid scheduling situation for Denver at home tonight.

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Portland is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Phoenix.  The Trail Blazers have played back-to-back overtime games, including last night at home against the Washington Wizards.  The Trail Blazers blew a 21-point halftime lead in that game and lost 125-124 despite shooting 51.1% (48-94) from the field and 50% (16-32) from three-point land.  Portland had seven players log 25 minutes or more, including five guys logging 33 minutes or more.  In their previous overtime game against Philadelphia, the Trail Blazers had four of their five starters play 38 minutes or more while six players overall logged 24 minutes or more.  Portland will now hit the road while playing on a back-to-back set after two consecutive draining games.

Phoenix also played last night, but they got a confidence-building win at Dallas in a 100-98 final.  The Suns will now return home, and they are catching points against a tired and deflated Portland team.  Phoenix has a good offense that can take advantage of Portland’s tired defense.  The Suns are averaging 107.7 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land.  That offense will face a Portland defense that is giving up 110.6 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with Phoenix in this game on Sunday night.    

10* Play SUNS (+).

Chicago has played mediocre basketball since the All-Star break.  The Bulls are 3-3 SU with one of their wins coming in overtime.  Chicago played four of those six games on their home court, so it’s not a good sign that they’ve struggled.  The Bulls lost 109-95 in Detroit on Monday night, and now they’ll be playing on a back-to-back road set while playing shorthanded.  Chicago may be without Jimmy Butler (illness), Dwyane Wade (thigh), and Rajon Rondo (ankle) tonight; all three are listed as either doubtful or game-time decisions.  Chicago’s offense has trouble scoring when those three are on the floor, so if the Bulls have to play without them, it’s hard to imagine the team being efficient on the offensive end of the court.

Orlando comes into tonight’s game off back-to-back losses with their last being a 113-105 home loss to the New York Knicks.  The Magic held a 7-point lead heading into the fourth quarter of that game, but they got out-scored 28-13 over the final twelve minutes and lost.  The Magic had last night off, and off that blown game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Orlando’s offense comes into this game in good current form.  Over their last five games, the Magic have averaged 104.8 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field.  Chicago’s defense has given up 104.2 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field over their last five games.  We’ll back Orlando in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play MAGIC (+).

Sacramento has played five consecutive home games since the All-Star break.  The Kings went 1-4 SU in those games with their last being a 110-109 home loss in overtime last night to the Utah Jazz.  Sacramento blew that game after being up by 12 points heading into the fourth quarter, and after a draining effort, we don’t expect the Kings to have much for tonight’s game in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The Kings had all five starters play 37 minutes or more while three of those guys played 39 minutes or more.  Overall, Sacramento had seven players log 24 minutes or more.  The Kings will now hit the road while playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their first road game since February 15th.  Sacramento’s defense has been poor on the road this season; the Kings are giving up 105.2 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.    

Denver was in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for their game against the Hornets on Saturday night.  They lost that game as expected, but off such a poor effort, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Nuggets had three starters score 8 points or less on 22.2% shooting from the field (4-18) and 25% (3-12) shooting from three-point land in that game.  Denver’s offense is terrific at home where they are averaging 112.8 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Nuggets’ offense will take advantage of the poor Sacramento defense, especially since the Kings will be playing on tired legs.  We’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on Monday night.    

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Charlotte has alternated wins and losses since the All-Star break with their last game being a 120-103 loss at Phoenix.  The Hornets had last night off, and off a blowout loss, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Charlotte’s offense has played good basketball recently, and that will continue tonight against a Denver defense that gives up 111.5 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Hornets are averaging 108 points per game despite shooting just 42.5% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Denver is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game against Charlotte.  The Nuggets return home off back-to-back road wins at Chicago and at Milwaukee.  Denver was underdogs in both of those games, but now they must lay points into the Hornets; the Nuggets are just 1-3 ATS as a favorite their last four times in that role.  Denver’s offense scored 225 points while shooting 52.4% (86-164) from the field, 36.5% (23-63) from three-point land, and 90.9% (40-44) from the free throw line in their last two games.  Denver will regress in this game, so we’ll take the points with Charlotte on Saturday night.    

9* Play HORNETS (+).

Toronto just hosted Washington on Wednesday night, and the Raptors lost that game 105-96 as 4.5-point home favorites.  The Raptors’ offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 36.7% (33-90) from the field and 35% (7-20) from three-point land.  Despite the 9-point loss and the terrible shooting, Toronto held some significant advantages over Washington in that game.  The Raptors dominated the boards, especially on the offensive end of the court.  Toronto held a 16-7 offensive rebounding edge, and they also got to the free throw line 26 times (7 more attempts than Washington).  The Raptors also held a 13-5 fast-break points edge which shows they were the more aggressive team while being able to control the pace of the game.  Toronto’s downfall was their shooting, but off that poor performance, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.

Washington is in a bad situational spot for tonight’s rematch with Toronto.  The Wizards return home off their upset win at Toronto, and they are now laying points.  Not only that, but Washington also beat Golden State 112-108 as 7-point home underdogs in their game prior to that.  So Washington is off back-to-back SU wins as underdogs, and they are now playing in the favorite’s role.  The Wizards lost 102-92 to Utah in their first home game after the All-Star break, and Toronto’s new lineup is quite capable of playing similar lockdown defense.  In fact, prior to their loss to Washington, the Raptors held three of their previous four opponents to 97 points or less.  This game will go right down to the wire, so we’ll take Toronto plus the points on Friday night.    

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Charlotte and Phoenix match-up well for a high-scoring game on Thursday night.  Charlotte’s offense has been on a roll since the All-Star break.  The Hornets have scored 108 points or more in three of their four games while averaging 109.3 points per game.  Over their last four games, the Hornets’ offense has made 55 three’s while getting to the free throw line 98 times.  Charlotte has been very aggressive on offense, and that won’t change tonight against a bad defensive team that also likes to play at a quick pace.  Charlotte will face a Phoenix defense that is in poor current form.  The Suns have given up 358 total points on 51.2% (133-260) shooting from the field in their three games since the All-Star break.

Phoenix will return home off three straight road games, so we expect a focused effort tonight.  The Suns’ offense likes to play up-tempo basketball, and the Hornets will be more than willing to run with them in this game.  Phoenix is averaging 114.8 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field over their last five games.  The Suns will face a Charlotte defense that gives up 106.5 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Hornets and Suns on Thursday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Denver is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Milwaukee.  The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses since the All-Star break, and their last game was a 125-107 win at Chicago last night.  Denver shot 56.2% (45-80) from the field, 43.3% (13-30) from three-point land, and 91.7% (22-24) from the free throw line.  Denver played a complete team game last night with seven guys scoring in double digits.  The Nuggets had four starters play 30 minutes or more while six guys played 28 minutes or more.  Denver is now playing on a back-to-back road set without rest, so they will regress off last night’s performance.

Milwaukee has also alternated wins and losses since the All-Star break with their last game being a 102-95 loss at Cleveland.  The Bucks had last night off, and with a return home, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Milwaukee has played much better basketball at home this season, especially on the offensive end of the floor.  The Bucks are averaging 107.9 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Milwaukee will face a Denver defense that is giving up 111.8 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll back Milwaukee in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play BUCKS (-).

Detroit is 2-1 SU since the All-Star break, but they played all three of those games at home.  Even so, Detroit trailed by double digits late in the second half in all three games, and both of their wins came in overtime after making big comebacks.  The Pistons beat Portland 120-113 last night after coming back from a 13-point deficit.  Detroit had two starters play 40 minutes or more while eight players overall logged 22 minutes or more.  The Pistons will now hit the road while playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights.  Detroit’s defense has been poor on the road this season; the Pistons are giving up 104.4 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from three-point land.    

New Orleans made a big splash at the trading deadline when they landed DeMarcus Cousins from the Sacramento Kings.  With Cousins playing alongside Anthony Davis, many believed the Pelicans would dominate right away.  But that hasn’t been the case at all as New Orleans has lost all three of their games since the trade.  But the Pelicans played a terrific game in Oklahoma City on Sunday night, and they deserved a better outcome.  New Orleans has had two days off since, and with a return home, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Pelicans will be without Cousins after he got a technical foul in their last game, but his absence will force New Orleans to play more of a team game.  We’ll back New Orleans in this game on Wednesday night.    

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Indiana came out of the All-Star break with an easy 102-92 home win over the Memphis Grizzlies.  But the Pacers had to play the very next night on the road, and they got blown out in a 113-95 loss at the Miami Heat.  That was a bad scheduling spot for Indiana, and fatigue set-in during the fourth quarter when they got out-scored 30-16 by Miami.  Overall, the Pacers shot just 40% (34-85) from the field and 33.3% (4-12) from three-point land.  Indiana had last night off, so they are rested and ready for a strong bounce back performance tonight in Houston.  The Pacers waxed the Rockets 120-101 last month, and they are 2-2 SU over their last four meetings with the two losses coming by 10 and 4 points in overtime. 

Houston is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game against the Pacers.  The Rockets are 2-0 SU since the All-Star break with those wins coming by a combined 42 points.  Houston won at New Orleans by 30 points (129-99), and their last game was a 142-130 win at Minnesota.  The Rockets’ offense scored 271 total points in those two games while shooting 48.1% (89-185) from the field and 38.5% (42-109) from three-point land.  Those numbers are not sustainable, especially the amount of shots taken, so this is a prime spot for the Rockets to throw in a clunker.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take Indiana plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play PACERS (+).

New Orleans made a big splash at the trading deadline when they landed DeMarcus Cousins from the Sacramento Kings.  With Cousins playing alongside Anthony Davis, many believed the Pelicans would dominate right away.  But that hasn’t been the case at all as New Orleans got blown out in their first two games since the trade.  Tonight’s game at Oklahoma City will be their third game together, and we expect a much better result, especially since they are playing a limited Thunder team that mainly relies on Russell Westbrook for offense, and a team that has very little protection inside the paint.  This is a favorable matchup for New Orleans, and off back-to-back blowout losses, we expect this to be the game the Pelicans showcase what their new lineup is capable of.

Oklahoma City won their first game after the All-Star break.  The Thunder walloped a poor Lakers team by 17 points (110-93).  Oklahoma City got a rare team performance on offense as four of their five starters scored 15 points or more while five players scored at least 12 points or more.  Oklahoma City has been unable to produce that type of offensive production consistently this season; it’s usually Westbrook doing all the scoring on his own.  Oklahoma City allowed the Lakers to score 56 points inside the paint, and now they are taking a monumental step-up in class while facing Davis and Cousins.  This game will go right down to the wire, so we’ll take New Orleans plus the points on Sunday night.    

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Miami was one of the hottest teams in the NBA prior to the All-Star break.  The Heat went 14-2 SU over their last sixteen games before the break, and we expect Miami to pick up right where they left off in tonight’s game in Atlanta.  The Heat had no representatives in the All-Star game, and none were invited for the individual skill competitions.  Miami’s players felt disrespected, so expect a spirited effort in this game.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra has also put a lot of importance into the first game out of the break, and in fact, Miami beat the Hawks 115-111 in Atlanta as 10-point underdogs in this same spot a season ago.

Atlanta was up and down to close the first half of the season.  The Hawks alternated wins and losses over their last five games, and they went just 6-6 SU over their final twelve games before the All-Star break.  The Hawks are coached by Mike Budenholzer who was an assistant to Gregg Popovich in San Antonio.  Popovich allows his teams to ease back into game shape after the All-Star break, and Budenholzer has taken that same approach with Atlanta.  The Hawks lost their first game back after the break last season as noted above.  Miami beat Atlanta 116-93 in their last meeting in early February, and the Heat are a perfect 3-0 ATS versus the Hawks this season.  We’ll take the points with Miami in this game on Friday night.       

10* Play HEAT (+).

Boston is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Chicago against the Bulls.  The Celtics played last night at home, and they beat the Philadelphia 76ers 116-108.  Boston shot 47.5% (38-80) from the field and 46.4% (13-28) from three-point land.  The Celtics also got to the free throw line 36 times in that game which shows how aggressive their offense was last night.  Boston had six different players score 10 points or more while all six of those guys played 22 minutes or more.  Boston had four starters play 29 minutes or more while three of those guys played 34 minutes or more.  The Celtics will now play on a back-to-back set with travel with this also being their third game in four nights, their fourth game in six nights, and their sixth game in nine nights.

Chicago returned home off a 6-game road trip to beat the Raptors 105-94 on Tuesday night.  The Bulls had last night off, so they are rested and ready for another strong performance tonight.  Chicago’s offense has also been much better at home this season.  The Bulls are averaging 103.2 points per game at home, and they’ve had success against Boston’s defense this season.  Chicago has scored 105 and 100 points on the Celtics in two meetings this season.  Boston’s defense has allowed an average of 105.8 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field over their last five games.  This is simply a bad spot for Boston, so we’ll back Chicago in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play BULLS.

Golden State is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Denver against the Nuggets.  The Warriors played in their showdown game in Oklahoma City on Saturday night on national TV; Golden State won that game 130-114 with Kevin Durant scoring 34 points against his old team.  The Warriors shot 52.9% (46-87) from the field and 41.9% (13-31) from three-point land.  Golden State’s offense has scored 375 points in their last three games while shooting an incredible 53.2% (133-250) from the field and 46.7% (43-92) from three-point land.  Those numbers are not sustainable, especially since Golden State will be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  The Warriors will return home after tonight’s game, so this is a prime spot for them to throw in a clunker.

Denver returns home off a 3-game road trip with their last being a 125-109 loss in Cleveland.  The Nuggets had last night off, so they are rested and ready for a peak performance tonight.  Denver’s offense comes into this game in good current form.  Over their last five games, the Nuggets have averaged 110.6 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  Denver’s offense has also been better at home where they are averaging 112.9 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field.  This is a flat spot for Golden State, so we’ll take Denver plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

San Antonio will continue their 8-game road trip tonight in Detroit.  This will be the Spurs’ third game of the trip; they are 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ATS so far.  San Antonio won 111-103 in Philadelphia on Wednesday night.  The Spurs shot 52.7% (39-74) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  San Antonio also hit 88% (22-25) from the free throw line.  All five starters scored in double digits while all twelve players on the roaster scored at least 2 points.  That production will not be duplicated tonight, so the Spurs are in a tough spot, especially since they are laying points on the road.

Detroit will be playing their third consecutive home game, and with last night off, the Pistons are rested and ready for a peak performance tonight.  Detroit is on a 2-game winning streak, and they’ve won four of their last five games overall.  Over their last five games, Detroit’s offense has averaged 110.4 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field.  This isn’t a spot where we expect San Antonio to come with their best performance, and with Detroit in good current form, we’ll take the Pistons plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Utah is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Dallas against the Mavericks.  The Jazz played in New Orleans last night; they waxed the Pelicans 127-94 in that game.  Utah’s game before that resulted in a 120-95 win against the Hawks in Atlanta.  Utah’s offense has scored 247 points in their last two games while shooting an incredible 57.7% (97-168) from the field, 41.4% (24-58) from three-point land, and 74.4% (29-39) from the free throw line.  Those numbers are not sustainable, especially with travel on a back-to-back set.  Utah will also be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Utah will return home after tonight’s game, so this is a prime spot for them to throw in a clunker.

Dallas will be playing their second consecutive home game, and with last night off, the Mavericks will rested and ready for a peak performance tonight, especially since they lost their last home game.  Dallas’ offense has been much better since getting Dirk Nowitzki back on the court.  Over their last five games, the Mavericks have averaged 105 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 39.2% shooting from three-point land.  Dallas has had success this season against Utah’s defense; the Mavericks scored 107 and 100 points in their last two meetings.  This is a flat spot for Utah, so we’ll take Dallas plus the points in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play MAVERICKS (+).

Philadelphia is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Orlando against the Magic.  The 76ers played at home last night against the Spurs, and they gave San Antonio all they wanted but came up short in a 111-103 loss.  Philadelphia will now play a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their sixth game in nine nights.  Not only that, but the 76ers will also be playing their fifth road game in their last six games overall.  In their loss last night, Philadelphia had three players log over 31 minutes, and eight players overall played 21 minutes or more.  That’s not good for tonight, especially since Philadelphia had to travel without any rest while missing their best player, Joel Embiid, because of an injury. 

Orlando returns home off back-to-back road losses in Atlanta and Houston.  The Magic didn’t have enough offense to compete against those teams, but that will not be the case tonight against Philadelphia.  Orlando had last night off, so they are in a much better scheduling spot than the 76ers.  The Magic will play one of their best offensive games tonight because they’ll be facing a Philadelphia defense that is in terrible current form.  Over their last five games, the 76ers’ defense has given up 112.8 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Orlando in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play MAGIC (-).

Boston and Sacramento match-up well for a high-scoring game on Wednesday night.  Boston’s offense has been on a roll over their last twenty-five games; Boston scored 105 points or more in twenty-four of those games.  Over their last five games, the Celtics’ offense has averaged 110.8 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point land.  Boston will now face a Sacramento defense that is in poor current form.  The Kings have given up 110 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Sacramento will be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight; he is suspended after receiving his 16th technical foul of the season.  Without Cousins on the floor, Sacramento has no choice but to go small and play up-tempo basketball.  The Kings will be willing to run against the Celtics tonight, especially since Sacramento knows they’ll need to have a strong offensive game to defeat Boston.  Sacramento is averaging 105.3 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Boston’s defense has given up 101 points or more in twenty-two of their last twenty-four games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Celtics and Kings on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Orlando is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Atlanta against the Hawks.  The Magic played at home last night against the Raptors, and they won that game 102-94.  Orlando will now play a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their sixth game in nine nights.  Not only that, but the Magic will also be playing their fourth road game in their last six games overall.  In their win last night, Orlando had four players log over 31 minutes, and six players overall played 28 minutes or more.  That’s not good for tonight, especially since Orlando also had to travel without any rest.

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a big comeback win in the fourth quarter in Houston on Wednesday night.  Atlanta had last night off, so they are in a much better scheduling spot than Orlando.  The Hawks’ offense is in good current form as they’ve averaged 110.6 points per game over their last five games.  Atlanta will now face an Orlando defense that has given up 108.8 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 42.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Milwaukee and Denver match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  The Bucks and Nuggets both need to play at a fast pace in order to have offensive success, but neither could do that in their last game.  Milwaukee only scored 88 points on just 73 total shots against Utah in their last game.  The Jazz have an outstanding defense, and they play at a slow pace.  Denver only scored 99 points on just 80 total shots against Memphis who also plays terrific defense while playing at a slower pace.  With Milwaukee and Denver playing each other tonight, we expect a very fast pace since that’s the preferred style of both teams.  Overall, Milwaukee is averaging 104.4 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Bucks will face a Denver defense that has given up 112.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games. 

Denver has been at their best this season when allowed to play at a fast pace.  The Nuggets did not get their preferred style in their last game, but they will certainly get that opportunity tonight against the up-tempo Bucks as noted above.  Denver has also been playing without some of their better offensive players due to injury, but all reports indicate that Emmanuel Mudiay and Nikola Jokic will be on the court and playing healthy tonight.  Denver’s offense has been better at home where they are averaging 112.7 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Nuggets will face a Milwaukee defense has given up 109.2 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Bucks and Nuggets on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Toronto and Boston match-up well for a high-scoring game on Wednesday night.  Toronto is playing a quicker style of basketball this season; they’ve shown a willingness to run against up-tempo opponents.  That will be the case tonight against Boston, especially since the Raptors know they’ll need to have a strong offensive game to defeat the red-hot Celtics.  Toronto is averaging 109.6 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Raptors’ defense has been awful away from home this season while giving up 105.8 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three point land.

Boston’s offense has been on a roll over their last twenty-two games; Boston scored 105 points or more in twenty-one of those games.  Over their last five games, the Celtics’ offense has averaged 116.2 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point land.  However, as good as their offense has been, their defense has been bad.  The Celtics have allowed 108 points or more in six of their last seven games.  Over their last five games, Boston’s defense has given up 109.4 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Raptors and Celtics on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Detroit and Boston match up well for a high-scoring game on Monday night.  In their most recent meeting this season, the Pistons and Celtics scored 235 total points.  Detroit scored 121 points while shooting 55.2% (48-87) from the field and 45% (9-20) from three-point land.  Detroit only made 16 free throws, so they didn’t get many free points either.  However, the Pistons scored 48 points inside the paint with an additional 12 fast-break points.  Detroit’s offense comes into this game in good current form.  Over their last five games, the Pistons’ offense has averaged 108 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land.  Detroit will take advantage of a Boston defense that has given up 113 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Boston has been at their best this season when allowed to play at a fast pace.  In their last meeting against Detroit, the Celtics’ offense managed 114 points despite shooting just 44% (40-91) from the field and 35.7% (15-42) from three-point land.  The Celtics did have 18 fast break points, and they scored 40 points from inside the paint.  Those numbers show that Boston got a lot of easy baskets in transition, and they’ll be able to repeat that production tonight.  Boston’s offense is in excellent current form; the Celtics have averaged 118.2 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Detroit’s defense has given up 337 points in their last three games, so Boston’s offense should continue their scoring ways this evening.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Pistons and Celtics on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Memphis will hit the road after beating Toronto 101-99 at home on Wednesday night.  That game was not as close as the final score indicates, but after an ugly 14-point fourth quarter, the Grizzlies, who led by double digits, had to hold on for the win.  Memphis got fatigued late after having the previous three days off, so they’ll be better conditioned to play a full 48 minutes tonight.  Memphis plays at an extremely slow pace and they combine that with an excellent defense.  The Grizzlies are only giving up 99.4 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land.  In two previous meetings against Portland this season, the Grizzlies have held the Blazers to just 186 total points on just 37.3% (57-153) shooting from the field and 34.4% (21-61) shooting from three-point land.

Portland comes into tonight’s game on a 2-game winning streak after losing their previous four games.  However, the Trail Blazers have been an inconsistent team this season, and most of their success has come against lesser teams that like to play their style of basketball.  Portland prefers up-tempo basketball, and when unable to play fast, the Trail Blazers struggle mightily on the offensive end of the court.  Portland matches up poorly against Memphis in terms of pace, but the Memphis roster is also bad for the Trail Blazers.  Portland has no answer for Marc Gasol in the middle, and Mike Conley and Tony Allen torture Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum with ferocious defense.  Portland is just 2-10 SU this season when held to less than 100 points, including 0-1 against Memphis in that situation.  We’ll back the Grizzlies in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play GRIZZLIES.

Toronto is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Memphis against the Grizzlies.  The Raptors played at home last night against the Spurs, and they lost that game 108-106 despite San Antonio missing their best player, Kawhi Leonard.  Toronto will now play a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their sixth game in nine nights.  Not only that, but the Raptors will be playing their fourth road game in their last six games overall.  Toronto is also playing without their leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (ankle) who averages 27.9 points per game.  In their loss last night, Toronto had two starters play over 39 minutes, including Kyle Lowry who logged over 41 minutes.  That’s not good for tonight, especially since Lowry is the go-to scorer without DeRozan on the court.

Memphis lost their last home game in embarrassing fashion; the Rockets beat the Grizzlies by 24 points (119-95).  Memphis has had three full days off since that loss, so they’ll be primed for a peak performance tonight.  The Grizzlies have played much better basketball at home than on the road this season.  Memphis is 15-9 SU at home while just 11-11 SU on the road.  Aside from their last game against the Rockets, the Grizzlies’ defense has been fantastic at home this season.  Memphis is only giving up 94.8 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 32.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  Toronto is just 2-7 SU this season when held to less than 100 points.  We’ll lay the points with Memphis in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play GRIZZLIES (-).

Houston and Milwaukee match up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Rockets and Bucks just played five days ago, and that game had 203 total points scored despite both teams shooting the ball poorly.  Houston scored 111 points while shooting just 45.3% (43-95) from the field and 31.8% (14-44) from three-point land.  Houston only made 11 free throws, so they didn’t get many free points either.  Overall, the Rockets are averaging 114.5 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, Houston’s offense is averaging 115.6 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field.

Milwaukee has been at their best this season when allowed to play at a fast pace.  The Bucks will certainly get that opportunity tonight against the up-tempo Rockets.  In their last meeting, Milwaukee’s offense was terrible as they shot just 39.8% (37-93) from the field and 25% (7-28) from three-point land.  The Bucks did have 17 fast break points, and they scored 54 of their 92 points from inside the paint.  Those numbers show that Milwaukee got a lot of easy baskets in transition, and they’ll be able to repeat that production tonight.  Milwaukee’s offense has been significantly better at home where they are averaging 108.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Rockets and Bucks on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Houston is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Milwaukee against the Bucks.  The Rockets will be playing their third game in four nights, their fifth game in seven nights, and their ninth game in fourteen nights.  Not only that, but the Rockets will also be playing their seventh road game in their last eleven games overall.  Houston has done a lot of traveling while playing in multiple time zones, and their recent schedule will catch up to them at some point.  Houston comes into this game off a 119-95 blowout win in Memphis.  That game was preceded by a 125-108 home loss to Golden State.  So while the Rockets were able to snap back right away after their embarrassing loss to the Warriors, there’s reason to believe they’ll take the Bucks lightly tonight, especially since they just beat them by 19 points (111-92) five days ago.  

Milwaukee is on a 5-game losing streak, but four of those five games were on the road.  Their lone home loss during that stretch came against the Philadelphia 76ers who happen to be one of the hottest teams in the league.  Milwaukee returns home for tonight’s game against Houston, and they’ve had a day to prepare.  The Bucks recently held a team meeting because of their poor play, so if they are ever going to have a peak performance, it will be tonight.  Milwaukee owns 12 wins on their home court where their offense has played significantly better.  The Bucks are averaging 108.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take the points with Milwaukee in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play BUCKS (+).

Chicago and Atlanta match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  The Bulls and Hawks scored 222 total points in an earlier season meeting, and there’s no reason they can’t duplicate that tonight.  Chicago comes into this game off two full days of rest, and their offense has been terrific when rested.  In fact, in six such games this season, the Bulls have scored 105 points or more in four of those games; they averaged 106.3 points per game.  Chicago has scored 313 total points in their last three games, so they are in good current form.  The Bulls should take advantage of an Atlanta defense that is in poor current form.  The Hawks have allowed 103 points or more in three of their last four games.  Over their last five games, Atlanta’s defense has given up 104.6 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.

Atlanta has been playing a quicker style of basketball recently, and that has resulted in the Hawks playing their best basketball of the season.  Atlanta has averaged 106.4 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Atlanta has scored 100 points or more in fourteen of their last twenty games overall.  The Hawks’ offense will take advantage of a Chicago defense that has giving up 101.4 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three point land over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Bulls and Hawks on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

New York and Boston played on Christmas day, and the teams combined to score 233 points with the Celtics winning 119-114.  After a sluggish first quarter, the teams combined to score 183 points over the final three quarters.  New York was at full strength for that game as Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah combined to score 30 points on 60% (12-20) shooting from the field and 50% (2-4) shooting from three-point land in 65 minutes of action.  Porzingis (Achilles) is out for tonight’s game while Noah (ankle) is listed as doubtful; the Knicks are likely to be without two starters who provide offensive punch for New York.  The Knicks’ offense is not in the best of form anyway; New York is only averaging 101 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games. 

Boston played a complete team game in their recent meeting against the Knicks.  The Celtics had six players score in double digits while shooting 48.4% (45-93) from the field and 38.9% (14-36) from three-point land.  Boston recently went Over the total in 12 consecutive games, and a major reason for that was the poor play of the Celtics’ defense.  However, over their last two games, Boston has put tremendous effort into their defense.  They held the Hawks and Hornets to just 199 combined points while forcing those teams to shoot just 43.8% (74-169) from the field and 35.2% (19-54) from three-point land.  Boston only allowed 38 total free throw attempts in those games which shows how good their defense played.  The Celtics will now face a limited New York offense that will be missing their second leading scorer.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Knicks and Celtics on Wednesday night. 

10* Play UNDER the total.

Denver is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Los Angeles against the Lakers.  The Nuggets played in London last Thursday; they waxed the Pacers 140-112 in that game.  Denver’s last game was at home last night, and they beat Orlando 125-112.  Denver expended a lot of energy in winning that game.  The Nuggets had four of their five starters play 33 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Denver’s bench also had three reserves play 20 minutes or more.  Overall, six players scored in double digits, but it was costly as Gary Harris re-injured his ankle and Kenneth Faried logged a season-high in minutes played.  Denver’s offense has scored 265 points in their last two games while shooting an incredible 57.8% (104-180) from the field, 40.7% (24-59) from three-point land, and 86.8% (33-38) from the free throw line.  Those numbers are not sustainable, especially with travel on a back-to-back set.

Los Angeles is on a 4-game losing streak, but the Lakers have played a brutal schedule as of late.  The Lakers lost to the Trail Blazers, Spurs, Clippers, and Pistons.  Los Angeles is taking a step-down in class tonight against the Nuggets, and with a day of rest after a home loss, we expect a peak performance by the Lakers tonight.  Los Angeles’ offense has been much better at home this season.  The Lakers are averaging 108.2 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Los Angeles will take advantage of a Denver defense that has given up 118.4 points per game on 50.9% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is a flat spot for Denver, so we’ll back Los Angeles in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Cleveland comes into tonight’s game at Golden State on their final leg of a 6-game road trip.  The Cavaliers snapped a 2-game losing streak with a 120-108 win in Sacramento on Friday night.  Cleveland was scheduled to give their big three (LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love) this game off for rest, but now they are playing.  There’s reason to believe Cleveland was told to play their guys by the league, and if so, the team could mail this game in to spite that order.  This is also a bad scheduling and situational spot for Cleveland.  As mentioned above, they are on the end of a long trip while playing against an elite opponent that is well-rested and extremely focused on this game.

Golden State is 34-6 SU, including 18-3 on their home court this season.  The Warriors are in excellent current form; they are 7-1 in their last eight games with their lone loss coming in overtime after blowing an 18-point lead with less than 8 minutes to play.  Golden State’s other seven wins came by an average of 11.1 points per game.  The Warriors come into this game on three full days of rest, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for Cleveland.  Golden State has had this game circled since losing 109-108 to the Cavaliers on Christmas day.  The Warriors led that game by 14 points in the fourth quarter on Cleveland’s home court; don’t expect that to happen at home.  Golden State is averaging 120.9 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field and 41.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is a much bigger game for Golden State than Cleveland, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Oklahoma City comes into tonight’s game in Minnesota on a 3-game winning streak.  However, this is a bad scheduling and situational spot for Oklahoma City.  The Thunder’s winning streak began with a 121-106 home win over Denver after losing three straight games on the road.  They hit the road in their next game and won 109-94 in Chicago.  Oklahoma City played their last game at home, and that resulted in a 103-95 win over Memphis on national TV.  Now the Thunder will hit the road once again; this will be their eight road game in their last twelve games overall.  Prior to their last road win, Oklahoma City had gone 1-4 SU in their previous five road games while giving up 113.3 points per game in their four losses.

Minnesota is playing good basketball right now.  The Timberwolves are just 7-8 SU over their last fifteen games, but seven of their eight losses have come by 7 points or less with five of those losses coming by 4 points or less; their average loss has come by just 4.6 points per game.  Minnesota just snapped Houston’s 9-game winning streak with a dominating 119-105 win on Wednesday night, and we expect another strong performance tonight against the Thunder.  Minnesota’s offense has been much better at home this season.  The Timberwolves are averaging 104.9 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  This is a flat spot for Oklahoma City, so we’ll take Minnesota plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Houston comes into tonight’s game in Minnesota on a 9-game winning streak.  However, this is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Houston.  The Rockets played at home last night and they beat Charlotte 121-114.  Houston expended a lot of energy in winning that game.  The Rockets had four of their five starters play 32 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Houston’s bench also had two reserves play 20 minutes or more.  Overall, six players scored in double digits while the team shot 48.8% (40-82) from the field and 43.6% (17-39) from three-point land.  Houston’s offense has scored 250 points in their last two games, but that isn’t sustainable, especially on a back-to-back set with travel while also playing their third game in four days.

Minnesota is playing good basketball right now.  The Timberwolves are just 6-8 SU over their last fourteen games, but seven of their eight losses have come by 7 points or less with five of those losses coming by 4 points or less; their average loss has come by just 4.6 points per game.  Minnesota gave Houston all they could handle in their last meeting; the Timberwolves lost by just 2 points in overtime.  Minnesota’s offense has been much better at home this season.  The Timberwolves are averaging 104.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take Minnesota plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Boston and Toronto match-up well for a high-scoring game on Tuesday night.  The Celtics’ offense has been on a roll over their last eleven games; Boston scored 105 points or more in every one of those games.  Over their last five games, the Celtics’ offense has averaged 115.4 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field and 47.2% shooting from three-point land.  However, as good as their offense has been, their defense has been bad.  The Celtics have allowed 102 points or more in ten consecutive games.  Over their last five games, Boston’s defense has given up 111.2 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.

Toronto is playing a quicker style of basketball this season; they’ve shown a willingness to run against up-tempo opponents.  That will be the case tonight against Boston, especially since the Raptors know they’ll need to have a strong offensive game to defeat the red-hot Celtics.  Toronto has averaged 109.2 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 36.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Raptors’ defense has been awful over their last five games while giving up 113.8 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three point land.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Celtics and Raptors on Tuesday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Houston comes into tonight’s game in Orlando on a 6-game winning streak.  However, this is a bad scheduling and situational spot for Houston.  The Rockets played at home last night and they beat Oklahoma City 118-116 in a spotlight national TV game.  Houston expended a lot of energy in winning that game.  The Rockets had four of their five starters play 31 minutes or more with two of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Houston’s bench also had two reserves play 28 minutes or more.  Overall, six players scored in double digits while the team shot 47.7% (41-86) from the field.  Houston’s offense has scored 118 points or more in six of their last eight games, but that isn’t sustainable, and we expect major regression tonight against the Magic. 

Orlando lost at home to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night.  The Magic will play once again on their home court before embarking on a 6-game West Coast road trip on Sunday.  This is an important game for the Magic, so we know we’ll get their best effort after losing their last two home games.  Orlando’s offense is in good current form, and that’s important when facing a potent offense like Houston.  Over their last five games, the Magic are averaging 104.8 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  Orlando has scored 101 points or more in six of their last seven games overall.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take Orlando plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Atlanta is off back-to-back big performances.  The Hawks beat San Antonio 114-112 in overtime last Sunday night, and then they won in Orlando 111-92 last night.  Atlanta’s offense was terrific in both of those games as they shot 49.7% (86-173) from the field and 51.1% (24-47) from three-point land against the Spurs and Magic.  The 225 total points scored by the Hawks in those two games was their third best 2-game performance of the season.  After coming off back-to-back strong offensive games, Atlanta’s offense has regressed this season as they’ve scored less than 100 points in two qualifying games.

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster.  The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic.  New Orleans comes into tonight’s game off a 90-82 loss in Cleveland on Monday night.  The Pelicans are still 5-2 SU over their last seven games, including 4-1 SU on their home court during that stretch.  New Orleans’ offense has been much better at home this season.  The Pelicans are averaging 106.1 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home.  New Orleans has scored 100 points or more in eleven of their last thirteen games overall.  This is a flat spot for Atlanta, so we’ll back New Orleans in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (-).

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster.  The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic.  New Orleans comes into tonight’s game in Cleveland on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  The Pelicans’ offense is in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans have averaged 103.6 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans has scored 100 points or more in eleven of their last twelve games overall.

Cleveland is off back-to-back big performances.  The Cavaliers beat Boston 124-118 last Thursday night, and then they won in Charlotte 121-109 last Saturday night.  Cleveland’s offense was terrific in both of those games as they shot 51.2% (86-168) from the field and 40.6% (28-69) from three-point land against the Celtics and Hornets.  The Cavaliers also got to the free throw line 58 times in those two games.  LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving combined to score 85 points against Boston.  James and Love combined to score 60 points against Charlotte.  Irving missed that game with a hamstring injury, and he’s questionable to play tonight.  This is a flat spot for Cleveland, so we’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Dallas will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home and losing 123-107 to Houston on Tuesday night.  The Mavericks went into that home game off a 4-game road trip, and in fact, Dallas had played five of their previous six games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again while changing time zones.  Dallas’ defense comes into this game in poor current form.  Over their last two games, the Mavericks have given up 234 total points while allowing their opponents to shoot 52.7% (78-148) from the field and 50.9% (29-57) from three-point land.  They also let the Pelicans and Rockets get to the free throw line 58 times.  That’s clearly a sign that their defense is in poor form right now.

Los Angeles will play their third consecutive home game after recently completing a 7-game East Coast road trip.  The Lakers lost their last home 102-100 to Utah, and they’ve had a day off since, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance, especially since they have much tougher opponents on deck.  Los Angeles’ offense has been much better at home this season; the Lakers are averaging 109.3 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Los Angeles in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play LAKERS (-).

Los Angeles will hit the road after losing at home to the Denver Nuggets on Monday night.  The Clippers come into tonight’s game in New Orleans on a 3-game losing streak as they are playing without Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and J.J. Redick.  Los Angeles has only scored 292 total points in their last three games, and unless their reserves play way above normal, the Clippers’ offense will continue to struggle without their best offensive players on the court.  Without their top three players on the court, Los Angeles is missing 54.2 points per game.  That’s 50% of their overall scoring average.  The Clippers’ defense is giving up 104.2 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.   

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster.  The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic.  New Orleans is 3-1 SU over their last four games, and their offense comes into this game in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans have averaged 104 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 44% shooting from three-point land.  The Pelicans’ offense has been good at home where they are averaging 106.4 points per game on 45% shooting from the field.  We’ll lay the points with New Orleans in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Boston will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home and losing 117-112 to Oklahoma City on Friday night.  The Celtics went into that game off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, Boston had played twelve of their previous sixteen games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again.  Boston’s defense comes into this game in poor current form.  Over their last three games, the Celtics have given up 328 total points while allowing their opponents to get to the free throw line a whooping 91 times.  That’s clearly a sign that their defense is in poor form right now.

New York will play their third consecutive home game after recently completing a 5-game West Coast road trip.  The Knicks won both of those games while scoring 224 total points.  New York has had two full days off since, so they’ll be ready for another peak performance, especially since they are looking to atone for an embarrassing 28 point loss (115-87) in Boston earlier this season.  New York’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Knicks are averaging 106.4 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with New York in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play KNICKS (+).

Miami will hit the road after beating the Los Angeles Lakers 115-107 last night.  The Heat shot the lights out against the Lakers.  Miami shot 53.6% (45-84) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  Three players scored 21 points or more while five players scored 14 points or more.  Miami also had a strong offensive game in their previous outing when they scored 130 points on 46.3% (50-108) shooting from the field and 40% (12-30) shooting from three-point land.  Miami has played six straight home games, so this will be their first road game in thirteen days.  That puts them in a terrible scheduling spot for tonight’s game, especially since they’ve played back-to-back above normal offensive games.

New Orleans will play just their second home game over the last eight days.  The Pelicans have played a brutal schedule recently with games against the Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, and Thunder.  Tonight’s game against Miami is a major step-down in class for New Orleans, so we expect a peak performance by the Pelicans.  New Orleans had last night off, so they’ll be ready, especially since they lost their last home game to Oklahoma City.  The Pelicans’ offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 107.1 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field.  We’ll lay the points with New Orleans in this game on Friday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Sacramento will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home to beat Portland 126-121 last night.  The Kings went into that game off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, Sacramento had played nine of their previous eleven games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again while playing on a back-to-back set in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Kings exerted a lot of energy in their comeback win last night, and in fact, four players logged 29 minutes or more.  Their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, played over 40 minutes while scoring 55 points.  Overall, Sacramento shot 55.6% (40-72) from the field and 43.5% (10-23) from three-point land.  The King’s offense is unlikely to match that production tonight since they only average 99.3 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land on the road. 

Utah also played last night, but they got embarrassed by 30 points (104-74) by the Golden State Warriors.  Off that woeful performance, we expect the Jazz to bounce back strong tonight, especially since they’ll be playing at home where they are 10-5 SU on the season.  As noted above, Utah is catching Sacramento at the perfect time, and it doesn’t hurt that the Kings are just 5-11 SU on the road this season.  Utah’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Jazz are averaging 101.1 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Utah just beat Sacramento 104-84 eleven days ago in a similar situation, so we’ll lay the points with the Jazz in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Indiana will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home to beat Washington 107-105 last night.  The Pacers went into that game off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, Indiana had played eight of their previous ten games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again while playing on a back-to-back set.  Indiana had all five starters play 30 minutes or more last night, and three of those guys played 37 minutes or more.  The Pacers got a complete team effort as they shot 47.1% (41-87) from the field with three players scoring 20 points or more while six players scored 10 points or more.  Indiana’s offense is unlikely to match that production tonight, and since their defense gives up 111.1 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field on the road, that makes this a difficult game for them to win. 

New York recently completed a 5-game West Coast road trip before retuning home to begin a 3-game homestand tonight.  The Knicks have had two full days off since, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance, especially since they are off an embarrassing 127-114 loss in Denver against the Nuggets.  The Knicks also lost their last home game before the road trip, so tonight’s game is quite important to them.  And as noted above, they are catching Indiana at the perfect time.  New York’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Knicks are averaging 105.5 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field at home.  Derrick Rose is slated to return as well, so that’s another positive for the Knicks.  We’ll lay the points with New York in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play KNICKS (-).

Sacramento and Memphis match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  The Kings’ offense was terrible in their last game as they only shot 42.4% (39-92) from the field and 34.4% (11-32) from three-point land.  However, DeMarcus Cousins did not play in that game due to rest, but he will return to the court tonight.  Sacramento’s offense will bounce back strong tonight against a Memphis defense that has been extremely fortunate recently.  The Grizzlies just faced Cleveland without LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.  Sacramento’s offense is in good current form; the Kings are averaging 103.6 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games. 

Memphis is playing a quicker style of basketball this season; they’ve shown a willingness to run against up-tempo opponents.  That will be the case tonight against Sacramento, especially since the Grizzlies know they’ll need to have a strong offensive game to defeat the offensive-minded Kings.  Memphis is quietly averaging 97.4 points per game this season.  The Kings are giving up 105.3 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three point land on the road, so Memphis’ offense will take advantage of that poor defense.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Kings and Grizzlies on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Portland will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home to beat a short-handed Oklahoma City team 114-95 on Tuesday night.  The Trail Blazers were in a terrible scheduling spot going into that game with the Thunder; Portland was playing on a back-to-back set after just completing a 5-game road trip, and they were also playing their fourth game in six nights and their sixth game in nine nights while crossing multiple time zones.  Despite all that, Portland had plenty in the tank for that spotlight game.  However, off their recent schedule and that win, and now traveling once again into the thin air and altitude of Denver, this is a horrendous spot for Portland.  The Trail Blazers’ defense gives up 111.4 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land on the road. 

Denver recently completed a 6-game road trip before retuning home to begin a 3-game homestand tonight.  The Nuggets have had two full days off since, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance, especially since they are off an embarrassing 20-point loss in Dallas against the Mavericks.  The Nuggets have also lost their last three home games, so tonight’s game is quite important to them.  And as noted above, they are catching Portland at the perfect time.  Denver’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Nuggets are averaging 109.2 points per game at home versus 103.2 points per game on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Los Angeles and Brooklyn match-up well for a high-scoring game on Wednesday night.  The Lakers and Nets are all offense and no defense; they combined to score 243 total points in an earlier season meeting.  Los Angeles’ offense is averaging 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three point land.  Brooklyn’s defense is giving up 115.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Lakers’ offense will have an easy time scoring points in this game just like they did when they put 125 points on the Nets earlier this season. 

Brooklyn also has a well-balanced offense that features four starters that average 14.2 points per game or more, including two guys that average 16.1 points or more.  The Nets play at the fastest pace in the NBA, and they’ll face a Los Angeles team that ranks 4th in pace.  In their earlier meeting, the two teams combined to score 122 total points inside the paint.  That means they scored a lot of easy baskets in transition due to the quick pace, and we expect more of the same tonight.  Brooklyn’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form as they’ve averaged 110.2 points per game over their last five games.  Los Angeles’ defense is in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 118.8 points per game over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Lakers and Nets on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Orlando will hit the road once again for their game in Atlanta tonight.  The Magic will be playing their seventh road game over their last nine games overall.  Orlando does not come into this game in good current form at all, especially on the defensive end of the court.  The Magic are on a 3-game losing streak thanks to their defense which allowed a total of 347 points in those three games.  Orlando’s defense has given up 111 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That slumping defense will now face an Atlanta offense that has scored 217 total points in their last two games.  

Atlanta recently snapped their 7-game losing streak with a home win over the Miami Heat.  The Hawks followed that with a 114-110 road win in Milwaukee last Friday night.  Atlanta is back at home, and with three full days to prepare for this game, we expect a peak performance.  The Hawks were dealing with multiple injuries to their key players, but all reports indicate the team will be back at full strength tonight.  That coincides with Orlando having injury issues as both of their centers (Bismack Biyombo and Nikola Vucevic) may miss tonight’s game.  Atlanta’s offense is averaging 106.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land at home, so they will take advantage of an Orlando defense that is struggling mightily right now.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Los Angeles will hit the road tonight after losing 118-112 at home to the New York Knicks last night.  That was their second consecutive close, high-scoring loss as the Suns beat them 119-115 on Friday night.  Those back-to-back close losses will leave the Lakers empty tonight, especially since they will be playing on a back-to-back set.  This will also be Los Angeles’ third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Los Angeles’ defense comes into this game in terrible current form; the Lakers have given up 116.2 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Lakers have allowed 371 total points in their last three games.

Sacramento recently completed a 5-game East Coast road trip, and that was followed by a home game with just one of rest.  Next was a back-to-back set in the high altitude of Utah where they got blown out by 20 points (104-84).  Sacramento now returns back home for tonight’s game, and since they had yesterday off, we expect a strong bounce back performance.  The Kings’ offense is averaging 103.5 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land at home, so they will take advantage of a Los Angeles defense that is struggling mightily right now.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play KINGS (-).

Dallas and Houston match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday night.  The Mavericks have played a different style of basketball lately, and as a result, they’ve gone Over the total in three straight games.  That streak will continue tonight against the fast-paced, no defense and offensively focused Houston Rockets.  Dallas’ defense has been horrendous in their last three games as they’ve allowed mediocre offenses (Bobcats, Kings, and Pacers) to score 332 total points.  On a back-to-back set, the Mavericks’ defense has little chance to stop the high-scoring Houston offense, especially since they are off a poor game last night.  Overall, Dallas is giving up 102.9 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three point land on the road.

Houston also played last night, and they beat the Thunder 102-99 in Oklahoma City.  The Rockets’ offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 39.1% (36-92) from the field and an ugly 26.2% (11-42) from three-point land.  Houston will bounce back strong tonight against a Dallas defense that is in terrible current form.  The Rockets’ offense is in excellent overall current form despite last night’s poor performance.  Houston is still averaging 120.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Mavericks and Rockets on Saturday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

New York will fly all the way out to the West Coast after getting drilled 126-94 at home by the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night.  The Knicks will open their 5-game road trip without point guard Derrick Rose who will miss this game with a sore lower back.  His absence will be felt by the Knicks as Rose was having a terrific season, especially on the offensive end of the court.  New York just beat Sacramento 106-98 at home on Sunday night, and Rose scored 20 points on 64.3% (9-14) shooting from the field in just over 33 minutes of action.  The Knicks only won that game by 8 points despite out-shooting the Kings 44.3% (39-88) to 32% (31-97) from the field.  And that game was on their home court.  New York’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 109.9 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.

Sacramento returns home off a 5-game road trip where they went just 2-3 SU.  However, the Kings were competitive as their three losses all came by 8 points or less, including an overtime loss in Washington.  The Kings were in a terrible scheduling spot for their last game in Dallas, but they overcame it and won that game by a whopping 31 points (120-89).  We expect Sacramento to carry over that momentum for tonight’s game, especially since they are seeking quick turnaround revenge.  Sacramento’s offense is averaging 103.9 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land at home, so they will take advantage of New York’s poor road defense.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play KINGS (-).

Sacramento will conclude their 5-game road trip in Dallas tonight.  The Kings played the first four games on the East Coast, but tonight they will be in a different time zone in Dallas.  Sacramento won their first game of the trip in Brooklyn against the Nets, but they’ve gone 0-3 SU since because of the play of their offense.  Sacramento has scored 98 points or less in their last three games, and that includes an overtime session against the Wizards.  The Kings only averaged 95 points per game on 37% (102-276) shooting from the field, 24% (18-75) shooting from three-point land, and 68.5% (63-92) shooting from the free throw line in those games.  Sacramento’s offensive struggles will continue tonight against a Dallas defense that has held their last five opponents to just 92.6 points per game.

Dallas has had a rough season so far, especially considering the amount of injuries they have suffered.  However, the Mavericks are actually playing good basketball right now, and they are catching the Kings at the perfect time.  Dallas is only 2-3 SU during their past five games, but their three losses have all come by 10 points or less against teams that will be in the playoffs.  The Mavericks are now taking a step-down in class against the Kings, and Sacramento is a team on the Mavericks' level.  Andrew Bogut got hurt last night, and that may be a good thing for the Mavericks going forward.  Bogut was having a terrible season, and his backup, Dwight Powell, is actually playing much better.  Dallas is playing back-to-back home games, so we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight, especially since they are off a loss.  We’ll take the points with Dallas in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play MAVERICKS (+).

Chicago will hit the road after losing 112-110 at home to the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  The Bulls have lost back-to-back games, and they’ve lost three of their last four games overall.  Chicago is now in a bad scheduling spot, so we expect another loss tonight.  Chicago will be playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their fourth games in five nights.  Chicago’s defense is in terrible current form; the Bulls have given up 101.8 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Chicago has allowed a total of 324 points in their last three games.

Detroit comes into this game off a 98-92 home loss to the Orlando Magic on Sunday night.  The Pistons have an excuse for that loss as they were returning home off a 4-game road trip while having just one day off before the Magic game.  Detroit also won three straight road games as underdogs prior to laying 7 points against Orlando, so it wasn’t a surprise that the Pistons struggled .  They will now play back-to-back home games, so we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight, especially since they are off a loss.  Detroit’s offense is averaging 106.8 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Detroit in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play PISTONS (-).

Boston is finally back to full strength after playing most of the early season without Al Horford and Jae Crowder.  Both guys are back in rhythm with the team, and the Celtics have played some terrific basketball recently.  Boston is 6-2 SU over their last eight games with their two losses coming by just 6 and 7 points.  Over their last five games, the Celtics’ offense is averaging 106.6 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  Boston will take advantage of a terrible Houston defense that comes into this game in awful current form.  Over their last five games, the Rockets have given up 115 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field.  In their last three games alone, Houston has allowed their opponents to score 357 total points.

Houston returns home off a 5-game West Coast road trip where they went 4-1 SU, including a thrilling double overtime win over the Golden State Warriors.  The Rockets were in a terrible scheduling spot for their last game in Denver; they were playing on a back-to-back set in altitude after that draining win over the Warriors.  Heavy money came in against Houston, but they went on to beat the Nuggets 128-110.  Now with the return home and two days off, we expect the Rockets to throw a clunker tonight, especially since they are playing a Boston team that is in excellent current form.  Houston is also expected to be without Trevor Ariza because of a back injury; he is averaging 12.6 points per game while being the Rockets’ leading rebounder at 8.4 boards per game.  We’ll take Boston plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Denver will hit the road after losing 128-110 at home to the Rockets last night.  The Nuggets have no excuse for that loss as Houston was playing on a back-to-back set in altitude after beating Golden State 132-127 in double overtime.  Denver is in terrible current form as they are just 1-4 SU in their last five games.  Denver will be playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights.  Denver’s defense has given up 117.6 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 42% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Denver has allowed a total of 348 points in their last three games.

Utah comes into this game off a 111-110 home loss to the Miami Heat on Thursday night, so they’ll be ready for a strong bounce back effort in this game.  The Jazz upgraded their offense over the summer, and those additions have paid off so far this season.  Utah’s offense is in excellent current form; the Jazz are averaging 109 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Utah will now face a woeful Denver defense that is in disarray, so expect another strong offensive game from the Jazz tonight.  We’ll back Utah in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play JAZZ (-).

Cleveland will hit the road after losing 113-94 at home to the Clippers last night.  The Cavaliers have lost back-to-back games, and with this being a terrible scheduling spot, we expect another loss tonight.  Cleveland will be playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their fourth games in six nights, including three of four on the road.  Cleveland’s defense is in terrible current form; the Cavaliers have given up 110.8 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Cleveland has allowed a total of 339 points in their last three games.

Chicago comes into this game off a 96-90 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night.  The Bulls have an excuse for that loss as they were returning home off a 6-game West Coast road trip while having four days off before the Lakers game.  That much rest this early in the season is simply way too long, and it wasn’t a surprise that Chicago struggled in that game.  They are now back into their regular routine, so we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.  The Bulls’ offense is averaging 105.8 points per game at home, so they will take advantage of the slumping Cleveland defense.  We’ll back Chicago in this game on Friday night.     

9* Play BULLS (+).

Minnesota and New York match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  The Timberwolves are loaded with elite young talent that definitely puts offense before defense.  Minnesota has three starters averaging 19.8 points per game, including Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns who both average more than 22 points per game.  The Timberwolves’ offense is averaging 103.1 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three point land.  New York’s defense is giving up 106.5 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 34.8% shooting from three-point land.  Minnesota’s offense will have an easy time scoring points in this game.

New York also has a well-balanced offense that features three starters that average 16.4 points per game or more, including two guys that average 21 points or more.  The Knicks have been much more efficient with Derrick Rose at point guard, and it also helps that he is playing at full strength.  New York’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form as they’ve averaged 106.2 points per game over their last five games.  They will now face a Minnesota defense that is in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 107 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Timberwolves and Knicks on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Milwaukee has played to a specific profile this season.  The Bucks have been a horrendous team, especially on offense, against strong defensive teams.  However, when Milwaukee has played bad defenses, Milwaukee’s offense has been outstanding.  The Bucks will face a terrible Brooklyn defense tonight, so we expect their good current form to continue.  Milwaukee has averaged 107 points per game in their last three games while shooting 50.6% (127-251) from the field and 37.5% (27-72) from three-point land.  The Bucks have also hit 72.7% from the free throw line while getting to the stripe 55 times in their last three games. 

Brooklyn was in terrible current form before their miraculous double overtime comeback win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night.  Prior to that win, the Nets were on a 7-game losing streak.  Brooklyn’s defense is pitiful, and in fact, they’ve allowed 104 points or more in eleven straight games.  Over their last five games, Brooklyn has given up 120.4 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Milwaukee in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play BUCKS (-).

Miami got an important part of their offense back on the court in their last game.  Wayne Ellington is Miami’s best perimeter shooter, especially from three-point land, and his return to the court has Miami’s offense primed to be much improved.  In their last game with Ellington on the court, Miami scored 104 points on the Celtics after shooting 47.5% (38-80) from the field.  Over their last two games, the Heat offense has scored 211 total points while shooting 48.4% (78-161) from the field.  Miami will now face a Denver team that ranks 5th in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency while giving up 105.6 points per 100 possessions.

Denver is a high-scoring offense that plays at an ultra quick pace.  The Nuggets will also get their best offensive player, Danilo Gallinari, back on the court after he missed the last three games with thigh soreness.  Overall, Denver’s offense is averaging 110.5 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Nuggets will face a slumping Miami defense that has allowed 102.2 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This game will be played at a quick pace, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Heat and Nuggets on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma City will hit the road once again on Monday night.  The Thunder just completed a 4-game in five night set on Saturday at home with their previous three games all coming on the road.  Tonight’s game in New York is a terrible scheduling spot for Oklahoma City, especially since they’ll return home for a pair of games this upcoming week.  Oklahoma City is just 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming by just 3 points in overtime.  Overall, the Thunder own a -6.9 point differential on the road this season.  Oklahoma City’s defense is giving up 108.9 points per game while allowing their opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field and 39.2% from three-point land. 

New York returns home off a 107-102 loss in Charlotte on Saturday night.  The Knicks will be primed for a strong bounce back effort in this game, especially since they are a solid 7-2 SU at home this season.  New York’s offense is averaging 105.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Their strong offense at home matches-up extremely well with Oklahoma City’s poor defense on the road.  New York’s next game will be on the road, so that makes tonight’s home game more important.  We’ll back New York in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play KNICKS (+).

New Orleans got back to full strength four games ago when Jrue Holiday returned to the court.  Over their last four games, the Pelicans’ offense is averaging 115.8 points per game while taking an average of 87.3 shots per game.  New Orleans ranks 8th in pace, and they will now face the worst defense in the NBA based on efficiency as Portland gives up 109.7 points per 100 possessions.  Overall, New Orleans is averaging 104 points per game on 45% shooting from the field.  The Trail Blazers’ defense is giving up 113.4 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three-point land.

Portland is also a high-scoring offense that likes plays at an ultra quick pace.  The Trail Blazers rank 9th in the league in pace while averaging 108.9 points per game.  At home, Portland averages 109.9 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land.  Portland will face a poor New Orleans' defense that is allowing 106 points per game this season.  These two teams met last Friday night with the Pelicans winning 113-101.  The teams combined to score 214 points despite Portland shooting a terrible 37.5% (33-88) from the field.  This game will be played at an extremely fast pace, so we expect a high-scoring game between New Orleans and Portland on Friday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Denver will hit the road for the first time in ten days when they play in Utah tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing on a back-to-back set after beating the Bulls 110-107 at home last night.  This will also be Denver’s third game in four nights, their fourth game in five nights, and their fifth game in eight nights.  This is simply a terrible scheduling spot for Denver, especially since they’ll return home for a game on Friday.  Denver did just beat Utah 105-91 at home on Sunday night, but the Jazz were on a back-to-back set while playing their seventh road game in their last nine games.  Denver will be without their second leading scorer, Danilo Gallinari (16.8 ppg), tonight because of a thigh injury.

Utah comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak, but we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Jazz have had two full days of rest to get ready for this game, and with three straight home losses recently, Utah will bring their best effort.  Utah is also playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed by 14 points in Denver three days ago.  The Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA, so their methodical style will cause Denver fits, especially since the Nuggets will be missing Gallinari.  Utah’s defense ranks 10th in defensive efficiency, and after allowing 216 total points in their last two games, the stop unit will be stout tonight.  We’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play JAZZ (-).

Miami comes into this game with a poor 4-8 record, but the Heat have played a brutal schedule so far this season.  The Heat faced the Spurs twice, Raptors, Thunder, Hornets, Jazz and Hawks.  Five of those six teams are ranked in the top eight in defensive efficiency, so Miami’s offensive struggles are understandable.  The Heat also played without point guard Goran Dragic for some of those games, but he returned to the court last Thursday night and Miami has won two consecutive games while scoring 210 total points.  Miami’s defense is only allowing 42% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land; Philadelphia’s offense is taking a big step-up in class in this game.

Philadelphia is the worst team in the NBA, and they come into this game with a terrible 3-10 record on the season.  The 76ers have played two of the worst defenses based on efficiency metrics in their last three games, and they scored 315 total points.  However, they will now face a Miami defenses that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency.  In their five games against teams in the top 8 of defensive efficiency (Thunder, Hawks twice, Hornets and Jazz), the 76ers averaged just 88.4 points per game on 40.2% (165-410) shooting from the field and 32.3% (42-130) shooting from three-point land.  Philadelphia lost those five games by an average of 20 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play HEAT (-).

Miami comes into this game with a poor 3-8 record, but the Heat have played a brutal schedule so far this season.  The Heat faced the Spurs twice, Raptors, Thunder, Hornets, Jazz and Hawks.  Five of those six teams are ranked in the top eight in defensive efficiency, so Miami’s offensive struggles are understandable.  The Heat also played without point guard Goran Dragic for some of those games, but he returned to the court on Thursday night and Miami beat Milwaukee 96-73.  Miami’s defense is only allowing 41.5% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land; Washington’s offense is taking a big step-up in class in this game.

Washington is also 3-8 on the season after beating the Knicks 119-112 on Thursday night.  The Wizards have played three of the worst defenses based on efficiency metrics in their last five games.  Against the Celtics, 76ers and Knicks, Washington’s offense scored a total of 339 points.  However, they will now face a Miami defenses that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency.  In their lone game against a team in the top 8 of defensive efficiency (Hawks), the Wizards scored just 95 points on 38.8% (31-80) shooting from the field and 25% (5-20) shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with Miami in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play HEAT (+).

Portland comes into this game with a 7-5 record, but the Trail Blazers have played a soft schedule.  Portland has played a slew of inefficient offenses, so their poor defense hasn’t been fully exposed yet.  That will change tonight against a potent Houston offense.  Overall, Portland is giving up 111.2 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land.  Those poor numbers have come against average offenses, so they’ll be even worse against better offensive teams.  Portland’s last road game against a good offense resulted in a 111-80 blowout loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers.

Houston has played eight of their eleven games on the road so far, and with this being just their fourth home game of the season, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Houston only lost 105-103 in Oklahoma City last night despite scoring just 13 total points in the fourth quarter.  Houston will now take a major step-down in defensive class, so their offense will be efficient for a full four quarters.  The Rockets have faced two poor defenses this season; Houston scored a total of 233 points while shooting 47.8% (86-180) from the field and 40% (32-80) from three-point land in those games.  They also got to the free throw line 44 times in those two games.  We’ll lay the points with Houston in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play ROCKETS (-).

Milwaukee is 5-5 on the season after losing 107-100 in Atlanta last night.  That 7-point loss was misleading as the Bucks trailed by 14 points going into the fourth quarter, and they trailed by as many as 24 points.  Milwaukee’s offense has struggled mightily versus the three elite defensive teams they’ve played this season.  Milwaukee lost 107-96 to Charlotte, they lost 98-83 to Detroit, and last night they lost 107-100 to Atlanta.  The Bucks’ offense was horrendous in all three of those games as they only scored a combined 279 points on 40.4% (112-277) shooting from the field and 23.1% (15-65) shooting from three-point land.  Milwaukee only got to the free throw line 52 total times in those three games as well.  Tonight they will face Miami who has the fourth best defensive team in the league based on efficiency metrics.

Miami comes into this game with a poor 2-8 record, but the Heat have played a brutal schedule so far this season.  The Heat faced the Spurs twice, Raptors, Thunder, Hornets, Jazz and Hawks.  Five of those six teams are ranked in the top eight in defensive efficiency, so Miami’s offense struggles are understandable.  The Heat also played without point guard Goran Dragic, but all reports indicate he will return to the court tonight.  Miami’s defense is only allowing 42.4% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land at home, and since Milwaukee’s offense has struggled against good defenses, this game is a bad matchup for the Bucks.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play HEAT (-).

Phoenix has a high-scoring offense that plays at an extremely fast pace.  In fact, the Suns play at the fastest pace in the league.  Phoenix has scored 100 points or more in nine of their eleven games this season; they’ve scored 110 points or more in five of those games.  Overall, the Suns are averaging 108.4 points per game.  On the road, Phoenix’s offense has actually been better while averaging 111.5 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field.  The Suns’ defense has been horrendous this season.  Overall, Phoenix is giving up 115.6 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  On the road, Phoenix is giving up 119.3 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 39.6% shooting from three-point land.

Denver is also a high-scoring offense that also plays at an ultra quick pace.  The Nuggets rank sixth in the league in pace while averaging 104.1 points per game.  Denver will now face one of the worst defenses in the league, and combined with the pace, we expect the Nuggets to have one of their best offensive games of the season.  Denver has played in four games against poor defenses this season.  The Nuggets have averaged 110.8 points per game while shooting 44.1% (157-356) from the field and 35.1% (34-97) shooting from three-point land.  They got to the free throw line an average of 31 times per game against those opponents.  Phoenix’s defense is worse, so Denver’s offense will score at will in this game.  This game will be played at an extremely fast pace, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Suns and Nuggets on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Milwaukee is 5-4 on the season, but the Bucks have played a soft schedule to get those wins.  The Bucks have only played two elite defensive teams so far this season, and both of those games resulted in blowout losses.  Milwaukee lost 107-96 to Charlotte, and they lost 98-83 to Detroit.  The Bucks’ offense was horrendous in both of those games as they only scored a combined 179 points on 40.8% (73-179) shooting from the field and 21.2% (7-33) shooting from three-point land.  Milwaukee only got to the free throw line 17 total times in those two games as well, and that clearly indicates that the Bucks’ offense struggles mightily against good defensive teams.  Tonight they will face Atlanta who has the second best defensive team in the league based on efficiency metrics.

Atlanta comes into this game with an 8-2 record after winning 93-90 in Miami last night.  The Hawks got a complete team effort in that game as six players scored 11 points or more.  That has been the case all season with this Atlanta team, and it will continue tonight against a mediocre Milwaukee team.  Atlanta is 5-1 SU at home this season where they are averaging 113.3 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 40.0% shooting from three-point land.  The Hawks’ defense is only allowing 37.9% shooting from the field at home, and since Milwaukee’s offense has struggled against good defenses, this game is a mismatch even without Dwight Howard who is likely to miss this game after getting hurt last night.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Boston heads to Washington off back-to-back losses with their last being an ugly 123-107 home defeat to the Denver Nuggets.  After that poor performance, Boston head coach Brad Stevens had some choice words for his team.  “It was horrible,” Stevens said.  “Everybody is disgusted with the way the team played. We know that’s not how we play and that something has to change and that starts with each other and started today in practice.”  Boston has had two full days of practice since, so we can certainly expect a strong bounce back team effort against the Wizards tonight.

Washington is having a poor season so far; the Wizards come into tonight’s game with a 1-5 SU record.  Washington has played a mediocre schedule as well, so their shortcomings cannot be attributed to their level of competition.  In fact, the Celtics will be the best team they’ve played this season, and they are catching them at the wrong time.  The Wizards have given up 112 points or more in four of their six games, and since Boston’s offense has scored 104 points or more in five of their six games, we don’t expect Washington’s defense to hold up in this game.  Boston is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Celtics in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play CELTICS.

Minnesota is having a disappointing season so far with a 1-4 SU record.  However, the Timberwolves have played much better basketball than their record indicates.  In fact, Minnesota has held big leads (15, 17 and 18 points) in three of their four losses this season.  The Timberwolves are averaging 60 points per game in the first half, but their problem has been in the third quarter; Minnesota ranks near the bottom in the league in point margin during those 12 minutes of play.  But tonight they will play a Brooklyn team that has similar struggles and ranks at the bottom in the same category.  Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns who possess the speed to play at a quick pace.  The Timberwolves will get that pace tonight against a Brooklyn team that wants to play the same exact way.

Brooklyn comes into tonight’s game with a 2-4 SU record after losing three of their last four games.  The Nets have played a mediocre schedule, and they have faced a slew of teams missing important members of their team.  Brooklyn will be without starting point guard Jeremy Lin (hamstring) and backup point guard Greivis Vasquez (ankle) tonight, and their absence will be felt, especially since the Nets haven’t played a game in three days.  Brooklyn will be forced to use shooting guard Randy Foye at the point tonight, but he too is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury.  The Nets are really thin at the guard position for this game, so it’s hard to imagine them being able to trade points with the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is the much better team, so we’ll back the Timberwolves in this game on Tuesday night.          

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Utah comes into this game with a 4-3 SU record (3-4 ATS) after winning 114-109 last night in New York.  They played their best offensive game of the season after shooting 50.7% (38-75) from the field and hitting 85.7% (30-35) from the free throw line.  Utah had six players score in double figures, so it was a complete team effort.  The Jazz will now play a back-to-back road set with this also being their third game in four nights, their fourth game in six nights, and their fifth game in seven nights.  This is simply a poor situational and scheduling spot for the Jazz, especially since they are laying points.

Philadelphia is winless (0-5 SU) on the season, but the 76ers have played a brutal schedule.  They have played Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Charlotte and Cleveland who are all much better teams.  Philadelphia has been a scrappy team so far this season (3-2 ATS) as three of their five losses have come by a total of 9 points (6, 2, and 1 point margins).  The 76ers will play their final home game before playing four of their next six games on the road, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  The home team is in a good spot while the road team is not, so we’ll take the 76ers plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play 76ERS (+).

Golden State comes into this game with a 4-1 SU record after winning their last four games, including last night’s 122-96 waxing of the Oklahoma City Thunder.  That was a circled game for the Warriors, especially Kevin Durant who scored 39 points on 62.5% (15-24) shooting from the field, including 63.6% (7-11) shooting from three-point land against his former team.  Overall, the Warriors shot 51.1% (46-90) from the field, 46.7% (14-30) from three-point land, and 80% (16-20) from the free throw line.  Golden State will now hit the road for the fourth time in their last five games.  The Warriors will also be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  After tonight’s game, the Warriors will have two days off before playing at home on Monday night.

Los Angeles returns home off a 4-game road trip where they went just 1-3 SU.  However, the Lakers have been a scrappy team so far this season as they are 4-1 ATS with only one loss coming by more than 7 points.  Los Angeles will be playing just their second home game of the season, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Prior to holding Oklahoma City to 96 points last night, the Warriors’ defense had allowed 100 points or more in all four of their other games this season, while going just 1-3 ATS.  This is a bad situational and scheduling spot for Golden State, so we’ll take the Lakers plus the points in this home game on Friday night.

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Detroit comes into this game with a 3-1 record after winning their last three games.  The Pistons played all of those games at home, including last night’s 102-89 victory over the New York Knicks.  The Pistons will now hit the road for the first time since their season opener which resulted in a 109-91 defeat in Toronto against the Raptors.  Detroit will also be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  After tonight’s game, the Pistons will have two days off before playing at home once again on Saturday.  This is a bad situational and scheduling spot for Detroit, especially since they are laying points on the road after shooting 61.5% (8-13) from three-point land last night.

Brooklyn got embarrassed by 30 points (118-88) in their last home game on Monday night.  The Nets allowed the Bulls to shoot 50.6% (45-89) from the field and 40.7% (11-27) from three-point land in that ugly loss.  Brooklyn has had a day off since, and with another game in front of their home fans, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Brooklyn is playing for new head coach Kenny Atkinson who was most recently the top assistant for the Atlanta Hawks.  Atkinson plays the ‘space and shoot’ style, and it actually fits the newly molded Nets.  Brooklyn will have success against the Pistons defense, so we’ll take the Nets plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play NETS (+).

Memphis comes into tonight’s game with a 2-1 record, but the Grizzlies could very well be 0-3 on the season.  Memphis beat Minnesota at home in their season opener, but the Grizzlies needed to rally from a 17-point deficit in that game.  Memphis needed overtime to beat the Washington Wizards in their last game.  The Grizzlies out-shot the Wizards 48.4% (15-31) to 20.0% (5-25) from three-point land, and they still needed to win that game in overtime.  That’s not a good sign at all, especially since they’ll be playing on the road tonight.  In their lone road game of the season, Memphis lost 111-104 in New York against the Knicks.  

Minnesota is winless on the season at 0-2, but both of those games came on the road.  The Timberwolves will play their home opener tonight, and we expect a peak performance in this game.  Minnesota is primed to make a big step forward in 2016 despite their two losses so far this season.  Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Timberwolves actually dominated the first meeting against Memphis as they out-scored the Grizzlies 44-34 inside the paint, held a 13-5 fast break points edge, and held a 17-6 biggest lead edge as well.  Minnesota is the better team, so we’ll back the Timberwolves in this game on Tuesday night.          

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Boston heads to Charlotte off a 105-99 loss to the Bulls in Chicago on Thursday night.  The Celtics were in a tough spot for that game after winning a high-scoring 122-117 shootout at home against Brooklyn the night before.  Boston had a day to rest off a loss, so we expect a peak performance by the Celtics tonight.  Boston has high expectations this season, and rightfully so.  The team is extremely well-coached by Brad Stevens, and their roster is loaded with talent from top to bottom.  Boston is 4-1 in their last five meetings versus Charlotte; the Celtics won those games by an average of 9.5 points per game.   

Charlotte is a perfect 2-0 SU on the season after winning at Milwaukee and at Miami.  The Hornets were road favorites in both of those games, so the wins were expected.  Charlotte also played a pair of teams that are worse than they are, but now they are taking a monumental step-up in class against Boston.  The Hornets are also playing on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their third game in four nights.  While it’s extremely early in the season, this is still a bad situational and scheduling spot for the Hornets.  Boston is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Celtics in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play CELTICS (-).

Indiana comes into this game with a 1-0 record after out-lasting Dallas 130-121 in overtime on Wednesday night.  The Pacers blew a 14-point lead in that game because of their new style of play.  Indiana got rid of Frank Vogel and hired Nate McMillan in order to play at a much faster pace.  While McMillan has agreed to the change, his teams of the past were more defensive minded while playing at a slower pace.  He’s out of his comfort zone, and that was quite noticeable on the defensive end in their season opener.  Indiana shot 50.5% (47-93) from the field and an incredible 52.6% (10-19) from three-point, but they needed to win in overtime because of their defense.  That’s not a good sign of things to come for the Pacers.

Brooklyn lost their season opener in Boston; the Nets suffered a close 122-117 loss to the Celtics.  But that was an impressive performance, especially since Boston is expected to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.  Brooklyn is also playing for a new head coach this season; Kenny Atkinson was most recently the top assistant for the Atlanta Hawks.  Atkinson also likes to play the ‘space and shoot’ style, and it actually fits the newly molded Nets.  Brooklyn took 97 shots against Boston, and since Indiana wants to play fast as well, the Nets will have success against the Pacers poor defense.  We’ll take Brooklyn plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

9* Play NETS (+).

Minnesota improved by 13 wins last season, and the Timberwolves are primed to make another big step forward in 2016.  Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Timberwolves will be playing for new head coach Tom Thibodeau this season, and his presence on the bench will have a major impact on this year’s results.  Minnesota was going nowhere with Sam Mitchell, and the fact that they actually won 13 more games despite him shows just how talented this team really is.  

Memphis is a shell of the team they'll be later in the season.  The Grizzlies are decimated by injuries right now with Tony Allen (knee), Chandler Parsons (knee), and Brandon Wright (ankle) all out tonight.  Marc Gasol will be playing on a minutes restriction because he’s dealing with nagging ankle and foot injuries.  Gasol will not be the only Memphis player at less than full strength tonight as Troy Daniels and Jarell Martin are also dealing with lingering injuries.  Memphis will also be playing in a new system for new head coach David Fizdale, so expect this team to struggle early and often this season.  Minnesota is the superior team, so we’ll back the Timberwolves in this game on Wednesday night.          

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Cleveland looked to be a dead team after going down 3-1 in this series.  But the Cavaliers woke up in the past two games to force Game 7 tonight at Golden State.  Cleveland won Game 5 on the Warriors’ home court by 15 points (112-97), and they won Game 6 at home by 14 points (115-101).  The Cavaliers got perfect games from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.  That duo combined for 146 of the team’s 230 total points in the last two games after shooting an incredible 56.6% (56-99) from the field, including 53.8% (14-26) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, Cleveland shot 52.5% (84-160) from the field and 39.2% (20-51) from three-point land in Games 5 and 6.  The Cavaliers are off back-to-back perfect games, but now they must hit the road once again and play Game 7 in a difficult situation.  Home teams in Game 7 of the NBA playoffs are an incredible 101-24 SU (81%) all-time, including a perfect 5-0 SU this season.  Also, 32 teams have trailed 1-3 in the NBA Finals and none of those teams ever won the series.  This is only the 3rd time in 32 occasions that a team has even forced a Game 7 when down 1-3 (those other two teams both lost Game 7).

Golden State played terrible basketball in Games 5 and 6 against Cleveland.  The Warriors shot just 38.2% (65-170) from the field and 35.8% (29-81) from three-point land.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 7, especially on their home court where they are 50-4 SU on the season.  The Warriors are averaging 114.8 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 40.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, nine of Golden State’s fifteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ fifteen playoff wins have come by an average of 15.9 points per game.  Golden State has eleven home wins in the playoffs, and ten of those wins have come by 8 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 15.6 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State owns an outstanding +14.0 point differential at home this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 7 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State played terrible basketball in Game 5 on Monday night.  The Warriors lost that game by 15 points (112-97), but they played that game shorthanded as Draymond Green was suspended for a flagrant foul in Game 4.  Golden State shot just 36.4% (32-88) from the field and 33.3% (14-42) from three-point land.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 6, and we’ll see the team that dominated the league this season.  The Warriors are now 15-7 SU in the playoffs, but they only scored 97 points in Game 5.  It was just the fifth time in twenty-two playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  In their four previous games after a poor offensive performance, Golden State went 4-0 SU and ATS in the following game while averaging 113.3 points per game with an average winning margin of 15.5 points per game.  Golden State played one of their worst games of the playoffs in Game 5, and a big bounce back performance is expected in Game 6.

Cleveland bounced back with a supreme performance in Game 5 on the Warriors’ home court.  The Cavaliers got perfect games from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.  That duo combined for 82 of the team’s 112 total points after shooting an incredible 61.1% (33-54) from the field, including 60% (9-15) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, Cleveland shot 53% (44-83) from the field and 41.7% (10-24) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers’ offense was so efficient in Game 5, and they did it all with their bench only scoring 12 total points.  We expect major regression from Cleveland in this game.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, nine of Golden State’s fifteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ fifteen playoff wins have come by an average of 15.9 points per game with their four road playoff wins coming by a whopping 13 points per game.  We’ll take the points with the Warriors in Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.  NBA Playoff Game of the Year.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Cleveland returns to Golden State down 3-1 in this series, and it’s a foregone conclusion that the Warriors will win back-to-back championships.  Cleveland is a dead team, and that was evident in their second half performance in Game 4 on their home court last Friday night.  The Cavaliers were lethargic and unemotional while getting out-scored 58-42 by Golden State.  Cleveland’s offense was pathetic, and their defensive rotations were downright embarrassing.  The Cavaliers showed quit, and it would be very surprising if they came with a good effort in Game 5 tonight, especially since they know this series is all but over. 

Golden State played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they bring their ‘A’ game, they are extremely difficult to beat.  The Warriors will be without Draymond Green tonight, and while his absence would be quite important over the long term, it should have little impact on one single game.  That’s because Cleveland just showed they’ve quit, and without Green on the floor, we can be assured Golden State won’t take this game lightly.  Golden State has eleven home wins in the playoffs so far, and ten of those wins have come by 8 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 15.6 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 50-3 at home where they own an outstanding +14.6 point differential this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night.

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State played terrible basketball in Game 3 on Wednesday night.  The Warriors lost that game by 30 points (120-90), but losing that game was expected.  Golden State shot just 42.1% (32-76) from the field and an ugly 27.3% (9-33) from three-point land.  Golden State also hit just 65.4% (17-26) from the free throw line.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 4 tonight, and we’ll see the team that dominated the league this season.  The Warriors are now 14-6 SU in the playoffs, but they only scored 90 points in Game 3.  It was just the fourth time in twenty playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  In their three previous games after a poor offensive performance, Golden State went 3-0 SU and ATS in the following game while averaging 115 points per game with an average winning margin of 17 points per game.  Golden State played their worst game of the playoffs, and a big bounce back performance is expected in Game 4.

Cleveland bounced back with a supreme performance in Game 3 on their home court.  The Cavaliers got a total team effort as four of their five starters scored 14 points or more while all five scored 9 points or more.  Overall, Cleveland shot 52.7% (48-91) from the field and 48% (12-25) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers’ offense was so efficient in Game 3, and they did it all without Kevin Love who was out with a concussion.  Love is expected to play tonight, but his return alters the recent Cleveland lineup that played outstanding basketball together.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, eight of Golden State’s fourteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ fourteen playoff wins have come by an average of 16.3 points per game with their three road playoff wins coming by a whopping 13.7 points per game.  We’ll take the points with the Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Golden State is now 2-0 SU and ATS against Cleveland after winning the first two games of the NBA Finals in easy fashion.  The Warriors had little trouble in those games; they won Game 1 by 15 points (104-89) and Game 2 by 33 points (110-77).  Because of their last two blowout wins, tonight’s pointspread presents some excellent value in playing against Golden State.  In fact, prior to the series starting, one sports book had a look-ahead line of Cleveland -3 for Game 3.  The Warriors shot 54.3% (44-81) from the field and 45.5% (15-33) from three-point land in Game 2.  Four players scored in double digits, and eleven players scored overall.  That was a complete team effort by Golden State, but off such a complete performance and now on the road, we expect some regression by the Warriors in Game 3. 

Cleveland has been terrible so far in this series, but the Cavaliers will be primed for a breakout performance on their home court tonight.  Cleveland’s offense was awful once again in Game 2 as they only shot 35.4% (28-79) from the field and 21.7% (5-23) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers have shot just 36.8% (60-163) from the field and 27.3% (12-44) from three-point land in the two games.  Cleveland’s offense will perform much better at home where they average 107.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38% shooting from three-point land.  While it’s unfortunate Kevin Love will miss tonight’s game with a concussion, the Cavaliers showed they could beat Golden State without him in last year’s Finals.  Cleveland will come with their best performance, so we’ll back the Cavaliers in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Cleveland lost to Golden State by 15 points (104-89) in Game 1 on Thursday night.  Cleveland’s offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 38.1% (32-84) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  Cleveland’s only offensive contributions came from their best three players as LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love combined to score 66 of their 89 total points.  The Cavaliers got little production from anybody else, and their second unit was simply awful in Game 1.  The bench scored a total of 10 points in over 58 minutes of combined playing time, and incredibly, they only combined to take 10 total shots.  They were passive and timid, but we expect a much better performance tonight by Cleveland’s role players.

Golden State didn’t play their best by any means in Game 1, but they were still able to win that game by 15 points.  However, the Warriors got extreme performances by unlikely contributors as Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa combined to score 31 points on an incredible 86.7% (13-15) shooting from the field.  That combined performance was an anomaly, and it allowed Golden State to win by an inflated margin.  The game was within a single point late in the third quarter as well, so the final margin of victory is somewhat misleading.  Overall, Golden State shot 49.4% (43-87) from the field.  Cleveland is still one of the best teams in the league and Class-A teams off a blowout loss in the playoffs has been a long-term winning ATS play.  Quality Game 2 road underdogs off a loss are also an excellent play.  Cleveland qualifies in several 60%+ ATS bounce-back situations tonight, and this will be a much closer game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Cleveland in Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (+).

Cleveland and Golden State will play Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.  The Cavaliers lost to the Warriors by 15 points (104-89) in Game 1 because their offense was terrible in that game.  Cleveland only shot 38.1% (32-84) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  Cleveland’s only offensive contributions came from their best three players as LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love combined to score 66 of their 89 total points.  Head coach Tyron Lue was not pleased with Cleveland’s pace of play, and he wants a much faster tempo tonight.  “I need LeBron James to pick up the pace for us offensively, getting the ball out and just beginning to play faster,” Lue said.  “Pace, so we can get up the floor and get guys open shots in transition. The floor’s more open when you’re able to play with pace and LeBron and Kyrie Irving can get downhill. If we pick up the pace and play with a faster tempo offensively, we’ll be fine.”

Golden State didn’t play their best by any means in Game 1, especially their two best offensive players.  Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson only combined for 20 points on 29.6% (8-27) shooting from the field, including 30.8% (4-13) shooting from three-point land.  The Warriors’ offense only had 9 total fast-break points as well.  Despite that, Golden State still scored 104 total points in that game.  The Cavaliers and Warriors combined to score 96 total points inside the paint, and the ability to score easy baskets at the rim is essential when looking for a high-scoring game.  Golden State’s offense averages 115.2 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Warriors’ offense will play better tonight, and so will the Cavaliers’ offense, especially since they’ll be playing at a much quicker pace.  We expect a high-scoring Game 2 of the NBA Finals between Cleveland and Golden State on Sunday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Cleveland and Golden State will begin the NBA Finals on Thursday night.  The Cavaliers are 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS in the playoffs so far.  The Warriors are 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS in the playoffs.  So both teams have been dominating.  Cleveland was a double digit favorite five times, going 4-1 ATS while Golden State was a double digit favorite two times, going 1-1 ATS.  Both teams faced similar paths to the Finals; the Cavaliers opponents were a combined 148-98 during the regular season while the Warriors opponents were a combined 140-106 during the regular season.  Cleveland’s defense has been terrific in the playoffs, but the numbers were better at home than on the road.  In seven home games, the Cavaliers gave up just 90.4 points per game.  In seven road games, the Cavaliers gave up 94 points per game.  They allowed 98 points or more in five of those seven road games.  So the Cavaliers’ defense numbers are skewed, and they will now take a monumental step-up in offensive class against the Warriors who average 115.5 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 41.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  

Golden State set an NBA record with a 73-9 mark in the regular season.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but a lot of that had to do with the big lineup Oklahoma City threw at them.  Golden State lost Game 1 at home to the Thunder, and they got behind 3-1 in that series.  So we expect the Warriors to bring their ‘A’ game tonight, and if they do, they will cruise to an easy win.  Golden State has nine home wins in the playoffs so far, and eight of those wins have come by 8 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 15.4 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 48-3 at home where they own an outstanding +14.2 point differential this season.  Golden State also went 2-0 versus Cleveland in the regular season, winning those games by 6 and 36 points.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Oklahoma City inexcusably blew Game 6 on their home court.  The Thunder led throughout the game, but they completely collapsed in the fourth quarter where they got out-scored 33-18 and lost the game by 7 points (108-101).  Oklahoma City’s offense was terrible in that game, and they were still able to eclipse the century mark.  The Thunder shot just 42.2% (38-90) from the field, and a pathetic 13% (3-23) from three-point land.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to score 57 points, but both players shot the ball terribly.  The duo combined to shoot just 34.5% (20-58) from the field, including a woeful 8% (1-13) from three-point land.  Durant and Westbrook will bounce back with strong performances tonight, so Oklahoma City’s offense will be much more efficient in this game.

Golden State’s offense wasn’t all that good in Game 6 either; the Warriors only shot 40.9% (36-88) from the field.  The Warriors won that game because of three-point shooting; they were +54 points (63-9) over Oklahoma City from beyond the arc.  The Warriors have averaged 115.4 points per game in the five meetings at home this season against the Thunder's defense.  The average score of all nine head-to-head meetings this season has been 218.4 points per game (in regulation time).  However, the pace of those games has been fast and my mathematical re-scoring model says an average of 225.5 points per game should have been scored, with the median re-score being 227 total points per game.  My power ratings using all games this season makes the O/U line 225.5.  There is solid line value with the Over, especially since tonight's O/U line is nearly 7 points lower than the closing total in Game 1 (225).  Look for a high-scoring Game 7 between the Thunder and Warriors on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Golden State bounced back with a strong offensive performance as expected in Game 5 as they scored 120 points to extend this series another game.  The Warriors shot 47.1% (40-85) from the field, 37.5% (9-24) from three-point land, and 91.2% (31-34) from the free throw line.  Five players scored 11 points or more, including four of their five starters.  It was a complete team effort, and we expect a similar performance tonight in Game 6, especially since Golden State’s season is once again on the line.  The Warriors have averaged 107.8 points per game in this series, and that includes a game in which they only scored 94 points.  If we toss that one abnormal game, the Warriors have averaged 111.3 points per game against the Thunder's defense.

Oklahoma City’s offense has been fantastic in four of the five games in this playoff series, and we expect another solid offensive game from the Thunder tonight, especially with this game back on their strong home court.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have combined to score 294 of the 561 total points scored by the Thunder.  Oklahoma City is averaging 112.2 points per game in this series, and that includes a game in which they only scored 91 points.  If we toss that one abnormal game, the Thunder have averaged 117.5 points per game against the Warriors’ defense.  The average score of the eight head-to-head meetings this season has been 219.6 points per game (in regulation time), however half of those games have seen at least 224 total points or more scored.  More importantly, my mathematical re-scoring model says an average of 225.9 points per game should have been scored in those eight head-to-head meetings, with a median re-score of 227.8.  The oddsmakers have lowered tonight's line a full 5 points from the closing line in Game 1 (225), so there is still solid line value with the Over.  Look for a high-scoring Game 6 between the Warriors and Thunder on Saturday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Golden State’s offense has scored 102 points or more in three of four games in this series.  However, the Warriors’ offense was terrible in Game 4 on Tuesday night.  Golden State scored just 94 points on 41.2% (33-80) shooting from the field and 30% (9-30) shooting from three-point land.  Off that horrendous offensive performance, we fully expect the Warriors to bounce back with a strong performance in Game 5 tonight, especially at home.  Oklahoma City’s offense has also been fantastic in three of the four games in this series.  The Thunder scored 108 points in Game 1, 133 points in Game 3, and 118 points in Game 4.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have combined to score 223 of the 450 total points scored by the Thunder.  Oklahoma City was averaging 111.9 points per 100 possessions on the road in the playoffs prior to this series, and they’ve had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense while averaging 112.5 points per game in this series.

The average score of the seven meetings this season has been 218 points per game (in regulation time).  However, my mathematical re-scoring model says an average of 225.4 points per game should have been scored based on the pace of play, with a median re-score of 227 points in the seven head-to-head meetings.  Tonight's O/U line is 5 points lower than the closing total (225) in Game 1.  There is now solid line value with the Over, and we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Warriors in Game 5 tonight.

10* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma City played perfect basketball in Games 3 and 4 on their home court.  The Thunder scored a season-high 133 points in regulation time in Game 3 after shooting 50% (46-92) from the field and 89.2% (33-37) from the free throw line.  Oklahoma City scored 62 points inside the paint, and they also had 29 fast-break points.  In Game 4, Oklahoma City scored 118 points after six different players scored 10 points or more, including all five of their starters.  Oklahoma City was terrific in both of those games, but they are now in a bad situational spot for Game 5 on the road against the Warriors.

Golden State was thoroughly embarrassed in Games 3 and 4 by Oklahoma City.  The Warriors lost Game 3 by 28 points (133-105), and they lost Game 4 by 24 points (118-94).  Off those two poor performances, and with a return to their strong home court, we expect a peak performance by Golden State tonight.  The Warriors won Game 2 off a loss at home by 27 points (118-91).  Golden State has dominated Oklahoma City at home all season.  In fact, the Warriors have held biggest lead edges of 20-9, 17-9, 14-8, and 35-1 in their four homes games versus the Thunder.  Golden State qualifies in a solid 60% ATS playoff bounce-back situation and they should perform much better at home tonight where they are 46-3 SU this season, including 3-1 SU/ATS versus the Thunder, with wins by 8, 15, and 27 point margins.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 5 on Thursday night.

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

Toronto looked like a team on the verge of getting swept after losing the first two games of this series in Cleveland by 31 and 19 points.  The Raptors were written off, but after winning the last two games at home to tie the series at 2 games apiece, Toronto’s bandwagon is full.  The Raptors will head back to Cleveland for Game 5 tonight, and this game sets up nicely for the home team from a performance pattern perspective.  Toronto scored 204 total points in their last two games after shooting a combined 49.7% (80-161) from the field, 35.8% (19-53) from three-point land, and 78.1% (25-32) from the free throw line.  To compare, Toronto only scored 173 total points in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland after shooting just 41.1% (65-158) from the field, 24.6% (14-57) from three-point land, and 76.3% (29-38) from the free throw line.  The Raptors’ offense will regress tonight while their opponent is set to bounce back with a strong performance.

Cleveland played perfect basketball in Games 1 and 2 en route to a 2-0 series lead.  But the Cavaliers lost their way in Toronto as they played terrible basketball in the next two games.  Cleveland scored a total of 183 points in Games 3 and 4 after shooting just 41.4% (67-162) from the field and 32.9% (27-82) from three-point land.  Cleveland only had 25 total attempts from the free throw line in the last two games; Toronto made the same amount in 32 attempts.  That will clearly change with tonight’s game on Cleveland’s home court; expect a favorable home whistle for the Cavaliers.  Cleveland’s offense will also perform much better on their home court where they’ve scored 100 points or more in 13 consecutive games dating back to the regular season.  We’ll lay the points with Cleveland in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Golden State was thoroughly embarrassed in Game 3 by Oklahoma City.  The Warriors lost that game by 28 points (133-105).  That was a complete reversal from Game 2 when Golden State won by 27 points (118-91).  The Warriors’ offense was terrible on Sunday night.  They only scored 105 points on 41.3% (38-92) shooting from the field and 30.3% (10-33) shooting from three-point land.  Even though Stephen Curry and Clay Thompson scored 42 points combined, they both shot the ball terribly from three-point land.  They combined to hit just 26.3% (5-19) from beyond the arc.  Golden State’s leading scorers will play much better tonight, and their three-point shooting will be much more efficient.

Oklahoma City played perfect basketball in Game 3.  The Thunder scored a season-high 133 points in regulation time after shooting 50% (46-92) from the field and 89.2% (33-37) from the free throw line.  Oklahoma City scored 62 points inside the paint, and they also had 29 fast-break points.  The Thunder had six different players score 10 points or more, including four of their five starters.  Oklahoma City’s defense was terrific in Game 3, but that one performance does not erase how poorly they played in their previous game.  Golden State’s offense will play much better tonight, and in turn their defense will step-up as well.  We’ll back the Warriors in Game 4 on Tuesday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State will play Game 3 in Oklahoma City tonight with the series tied at one game apiece.  The Warriors bounced back strong at home in Game 2 when they beat the Thunder by 27 points (118-91).  Golden State shot 50.6% (43-85) from the field and 46.4% (13-28) from three-point land.  The Warriors had seven different players score 10 points or more, including four of their five starters.  Golden State’s defense was terrific in Game 2, but that one performance does not erase how poorly they’ve played in their previous games.  Portland had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense in the previous series as they averaged 114.2 points per game.  Oklahoma City scored 108 points in Game 1 despite shooting just 43.8% from the field.  

Oklahoma City was very successful in their last series while implementing a big lineup versus the Spurs’ ‘small ball’ style.  It worked to perfection for the Thunder as they dominated the boards and limited San Antonio’s second-chance points.  Oklahoma City was able to duplicate that success in Game 1 against the Warriors, but they faltered on Wednesday night.  The Thunder sulked on defense because their offense played so poorly while only shooting 44.9% (35-78) from the field and 30.4% (7-23) from three-point land.  Russell Westbrook had a really bad game as he scored just 16 points on 35.7% (5-14) shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City’s offense will play much better tonight, and in turn their defense will step-up as well.  We’ll take the points with Oklahoma City in Game 3 on Sunday night.

10* Play THUNDER (+).

Cleveland is now 10-0 SU in the playoffs after winning the first two games of this series against Toronto.  The Cavaliers had little trouble in those games; they won Game 1 by 32 points (115-84) and Game 2 by 19 points (108-89).  However, the Cavaliers have not been as dominant as their 10-0 record indicates.  Six of their ten playoff wins were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  Because of their last two blowout wins, the pointspread on tonight’s game is greatly inflated.  To compare, the Cavaliers were just 5-point road favorites in Detroit in Game 3 and just 2.5-point road favorites in Atlanta in Game 3 after going up 2-0 in the series against those opponents.  Toronto is a better team than the Pistons and Hawks yet they are getting more points in a similar situation.  Cleveland was only +2.5 points better than Toronto in all games this season, which would normally translate to Pick'em line on the road, so this shows how inflated tonight's pointspread has become based on recent results.

The Raptors hung tough in three of four quarters in Game 2 on Thursday night; Cleveland only out-scored Toronto 76-69 combined in the first, third, and fourth quarter.  The second quarter did them in as the Cavaliers out-scored the Raptors 32-20 to take control of the game.  Toronto’s offense was terrible once again as they only shot 40.2% (33-82) from the field and 27.3% (9-33) from three-point land.  The Raptors have shot just 41.1% (65-158) from the field and 24.6% (14-57) from three-point land in the two games so far.  But Toronto’s offense scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland’s defense in three regular season meetings; that ranked them 5th against any opponent.

Kyle Lowry has been noticeably poor in the first two games of this series, scoring just 8 and 10 points, but keep in mind he scored 27, 23, and 43 points in the three regular season meetings against the Cavaliers which was his best output against any conference opponent.  He will likely bounce back with a much better performance in Game 3 at home.  Remember, he had back-to-back poor games against Indiana and Miami in the previous two rounds, scoring just 11 and 7 points, and then he averaged 26.1 points in his next six games.  The Raptors now return home where they are 38-11 SU this season, and this should lead to their best performance, so we’ll take the inflated points with the Raptors in Game 3 on Saturday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).