Cleveland comes into tonight

Both teams played last night, but only one team put energy into their game. Dallas played at San Antonio in a spotlight game that always gets the best out of both teams. The Mavs wanted that game after losing the two previous meetings this year. But after three quarters, they found themselves down by 10. Dallas played a monster fourth quarter in out-scoring the Spurs 42-23 to snag a misleading 9-point win. The Mavs exerted a ton of energy in that comeback, and that will leave them empty in this game tonight.

Utah was playing a home-and-home set with Memphis last night. The Jazz waxed the Grizzlies by 23 points in the first game so with such a quick turnaround, Utah was going to get Memphis

The Lakers offense isn

Orlando enters tonight

Atlanta enters tonight on a 4-game losing streak, and they hit rock-bottom in their latest loss to the Heat. The Hawks lost that game 92-75 as their offense was just dreadful; they shot 35.2% (25-71) from the field and a dismal 21.4% (3-14) from three-point land. Those numbers are way off Atlanta

Houston has had a full 2 days of rest for tonight

This game sets-up nicely for a low-scoring game because of the injury situations on both teams. Denver has been playing without point guard Chauncey Billups for the past six games and their offense has shown no ability to generate points like they can when he

Atlanta was really pumped for last night

This game will have a playoff atmosphere as the Hawks have knockout revenge after getting swept 4-0 by Cleveland last year. All four of those games were extremely low scoring, and tonight

This game sets-up nicely for a low-scoring game. Denver has been playing without point guard Chauncey Billups for the past five games and their offense has shown no ability to generate points like they can when he

Charlotte appears to be a terrible road team as they are just 1-12 away from home this season. But the win/loss record actually creates some tremendous value in taking this team in the role of a road underdog because they simply do not lose many games by big margins. Of their 12 road losses, eight of them have come by 6 points or less. So with a bounce here or there, the Bobcats could actually have a decent win/loss record on the road, and not the unimpressive one they have.

Tyson Chandler will miss tonight

Both teams enter off bad defensive efforts in their last games. Cleveland was taken to overtime at Sacramento the other night after allowing the kings to score 104 points in regulation. The Kings went scoreless in the extra session which prevented the points allowed by the Cavs from being much worse. But off that bad defensive effort, we can expect Cleveland to bring their best here in a spotlight game against Kobe and the Lakers.

Los Angeles is also off a bad defensive performance, but they have an excuse for that poor showing. The Lakers were in a terrible spot as they were returning home off a 5-game road trip with only one day of rest. They were also looking ahead to tonight

The Celtics will be without Paul Pierce for this game as he had to have his knee drained because of an infection. And when news broke of Pierce being out, the pointspread quickly shot up. But that only gives us a couple of extra points to take Boston in this spot. We see this happen all the time in sports; the best player is out and the line gets inflated yet that team brings their best effort. The team knows they need to step-up their game because they are shorthanded, and they do, and play a much closer game than expected.

Kevin Garnett missed Boston

The Celtics will be without Paul Pierce for this game as he had to have his knee drained because of an infection. There

This looks like a prime spot to play-against Cleveland. The Cavaliers enter off a big 18-point win at Phoenix on Monday night. They shot the lights-out in that game; they shot 52.6% (41-78) from the field and 41.7% from three-point land. Off that spotlight win, and with a big Christmas Day game at the Lakers on deck, it

This is a tough scheduling spot for the Lakers. They return home off a successful 5-game road trip in which they went 4-1. This first game back at home is a spot where we typically see teams not bring their best effort. And the Lakers are fully aware of that being the case. "That first game back is always the toughest, probably because of all the travel and your body still getting acclimated to the time zone," Kobe Bryant said. "You're trying to get back into a routine, and get a handle on all the stuff that goes on when you're home. There is the potential for distractions"

Kobe is also dealing with the broken finger on his right shooting hand, which he says, still hurts. "It's probably going to bother me for the next month or so," he said. The Lakers also have a much bigger game on deck as they

Dallas played an inspired game on Sunday night as they were without Dirk Nowitski who was out because of an elbow injury. The Mavs beat Cleveland 102-95 as they got a total team effort with six players scoring in double digits. But we often see that happen when the star player is out, but in the next game, the team usually misses their key guy and cannot match their production from the previous game. Nowitski is doubtful for tonight, so Dallas figures to regress off the big Cleveland win.

The Trail Blazers have won three of their last four after going through a stretch of injuries of their own. Portland is finally learning how to play without some of their guys, and this team just fights in every game they play. "We've got a number of reasons why we could put our heads down, but no one's even talking about that," guard Brandon Roy said. "Coach McMillan is still coaching as if we've got all our guys and we should win every game. And that's just the approach we've taken as players. There's no quit in here."

Portland matches up well with Dallas as the last four games in this series have all been close. They only have one win in those four games, but the Blazers three losses have only come by 8, 5, and 4 points. And Nowitski was a big part of those wins as he scored 29, 16, and 30 points. So without him on the floor tonight, Portland has the edge and takes this game down to the wire.

Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Orlando has been dominating teams at home this season. The Magic are 10-2 SU at home, and eight of those ten wins have come by 8 points or more. As good as the Magic are at home, the Jazz are as bad on the road. Utah is only 5-7 SU on the road, but five of those seven losses have come by 9 points or more. So when we combine the in-season spread results of these two teams based on their home and away results, we get a 13-4 ATS number that favors Orlando.

The Magic also want to atone for their poor showing out in Utah 11 days ago. Orlando jumped out to a 35-22 first quarter lead, but then they fell apart as the Jazz out-scored them by 22 points over the second and third quarter to win the game by 9 (120-111). The Jazz shot 50% from the field in that game and also shot 14 more free throws. But expect those numbers to reverse here as the Magic are much better offensively and defensively on their home floor. Utah has won two of their road games on this current trip, but they

These two teams are coming into tonight

Oklahoma City enters off back-to-back losses, at home to Cleveland 102-89 and at Denver 102-93. In that Cavs game, the Thunder actually held a 5-point lead at the half and only trailed by a bucket heading into the fourth quarter. But after a bad shooting quarter and only 13 points scored, the final score looked a lot worse than how the game actually played out. And the loss at Denver can be excused because the Thunder were playing the next night in thin air and altitude after a disappointing end to the Cleveland game.

After a loss this season, Oklahoma City has bounced back strong. In a game following a loss, the Thunder have gone 9-1 against the spread. As an underdog in that role, they

This game sets-up nicely for a high scoring game. The Lakers are playing on a back-to-back road set after beating the Bulls 96-87 last night. Los Angeles was actually trailing by a point going into the fourth quarter so they had to exert some extra energy in order to get that win. So their defense figures to struggle tonight because of that, and when facing a high-scoring Milwaukee offense, that certainly is not a good thing.

The Bucks have had 3 days of rest coming into tonight

New Orleans finally got Chris Paul back in the lineup four games ago, and their offense has really picked up the pace. The Hornets have scored 96 points or more in every one of those games while shooting 46.8% from the field. That shooting percentage is up for the Hornets

The Jazz possess one of the strongest home court edges in the league and this advantage is amplified when an opponent is playing without rest in the thin air and altitude of Salt Lake City. That will be the case tonight for the Lakers as they just played in Los Angeles last night and Kobe Bryant suffered a broken finger which could leave him less than healthy tonight.

Utah is 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS) at home this season compared to just 3-6 SU/ATS on the road. The Jazz are coming off a solid 120-111 home underdog win versus a strong Orlando squad on Thursday and the Jazz should carry the momentum into tonight

The Knicks enter tonight

Orlando has been one of the best road teams in the NBA over the past few years. And their record on the West Coast has been outstanding over that time as well. The Magic have gone 15-5 straight-up in those games which includes a current 10-1 run against Western teams. On this current trip, Orlando beat the Warriors by 8 and beat the Clippers by 11 points on Tuesday night.

The Magic also hold a couple of key advantages for tonight

Portland has been hit hard by the injury bug this season. The Trail Blazers have already lost Greg Oden for the season and are missing forwards Travis Outlaw and Nicolas Batum. And now guard Rudy Fernandez has been lost for about a month. And in their first game in New York without these guys on the court, the Blazers

Toronto

Oklahoma City enters off an embarrassing 105-87 home loss to the Celtics on Friday night. The Thunder have not played since, and they took advantage of the weekend to get ready for tonight. To forget about Friday night

Phoenix returns home off a 4-game road trip in which they were embarrassed in their last two games. The Suns lost by 27 points at the Knicks and by 17 points at the Cavaliers. Their offense was horrendous as they scored just 99 and 90 points in those two games while shooting a combined 42.7% (67-157) from the field. Back on their home court tonight, the Suns will bounce back with a strong performance.

The Suns are averaging 119 points on 53.9% shooting on their home floor this season. They are a perfect 6-0 at home, and they

Chicago hasn

Don

Toronto is a team in disarray right now. The Raptors have lost four straight, and eight of their last ten games. Their defense has been atrocious as they

Miami is in a funk right now. The Heat have lost five of their last seven games, and things don

This is a tough scheduling spot for Memphis. The Grizzlies are playing on a back-to-back set in altitude tonight which is definitely not a good situation for them. Playing in thin air and altitude is always tough, but even tougher when playing without rest. And Memphis has not fared well on the second night of a back-to-back set going just 1-3 ATS this season.

Utah is in good form as they

The best team in the NBA against the worst team in the league, but handicapping the NBA is more about focus and motivation than overall straight-up records. New Jersey is an awful 0-16 SU this season and they are now just one loss shy of tying the NBA's worst start, held by the 1988-89 expansion Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Clippers in 1998-99.

New Jersey might receive an extra spark tonight as they just fired head coach Lawrence Frank this morning and Nets

Handicapping the NBA after a holiday break is always a bit tricky as the motivation of teams is often difficult to gauge, however this will not be the case for the Nets as they have plenty of motivation for a win tonight. New Jersey is an awful 0-15 SU this season and they are just two losses shy of tying the NBA's worst start, held by the 1988-89 expansion Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Clippers in 1998-99. If the Nets lose tonight, they will match the franchise-record slide set during the 1977-78 season, so obviously New Jersey has plenty of motivation for a win.

New Jersey will be facing a below .500 Sacramento squad that is also one of the weaker teams in the league. Sacramento just snapped a four-game losing streak and they stand only 1-4 SU in their past five games. Losing teams often letdown after a win and it is hard to imagine Sacramento will be focused for a winless New Jersey squad tonight.

The Nets qualify in a solid 75-40 ATS situation which plays on road underdogs in this price range that have lost 8+ games in a row. New Jersey

Orlando has been one of the best road teams in the NBA over the last couple of seasons. And so far this year, their penchant for winning on the road has continued. The Magic are 5-2 straight-up and against the spread away from home including an outright win at Boston as a 6-point underdog.

The Hawks have played well so far this year, but they may be without their point guard Mike Bibby tonight after he sprained his ankle in their last game. He is a game-time decision and Bibby

The Celtics enter tonight

Boston is in a terrific spot today to get a convincing win. The Celtics enter this game off a home loss to Orlando on Friday night. They were terrible in that game on offense and defense, and head coach Doc Rivers called his team out in his post-game press conference.

The Los Angeles Clippers have been hit hard by injuries so far this season. They lost Blake Griffin before the season opener, Eric Gordon was lost during opening week, Kareem Rush was lost for the season two games ago, and now Marcus Camby is suffering from a lower-back bruise which limited him to just 11 minutes in their last game.

The Clippers have lost 5 of their last 6 games and it appears the adversity is too much for this team to overcome right now. "Nope. No answers," said Baron Davis. "We're not unified. We're not all on the same page. We have to find a way to get in sync and get on the same page. It's tough. Last year, you could blame it on the talent. This year, blame it on the chemistry. It's disheartening." And their defense, rebounding, and turnovers have all been dreadful which is not good when facing the potent Denver offense.

The Nuggets are averaging 105 points per game on 45.3% shooting over their last five games. And their offense welcomes back Anthony Carter to the lineup tonight after he missed time with a strained hip. "I'm ready to roll," Carter said. "Everything is good. I'm playing." Denver has dominated this series as of late winning the last 5 meetings, and with Los Angeles going through some rough times, this looks like another lopsided loss for the Clippers.

Play NUGGETS ( - ).

These two teams match-up nicely for a high-scoring game. In their last two meetings, the Bulls and Lakers had point totals of 216 and 225. And with both teams playing with their full complement of players, tonight

The Celtics enter tonight

Cleveland is in a tough spot tonight as they enter this game on a back-to-back set. The Cavs played in a fast-paced game last night against the Warriors, and that effort may leave them a bit fatigued for tonight. Cleveland has won five straight games, but they

Cleveland

Both the Raptors and Clippers are going through a rough stretch right now. Toronto is dealing with a ton of injuries; "Turkoglu's banged up. Andrea Bargnani is banged up. Chris Bosh. Jose Calderon. Antoine Wright. We have a lot of guys getting treatment," Toronto head coach Jay Triano said.

Los Angeles is dealing with a major injury as well with Eric Gordon out due to a strained groin. Gordon is the second leading scorer for the Clippers, but more importantly, he is the floor general. And the team misses him a lot. "We miss him tremendously," Marcus Camby said. "I never thought we would miss him as much as we do. Obviously he's the one guy who has to be a constant for us. A guy like Eric is sorely missed for what he brings to the court."

In his absence, the Clippers have scored just 84 and 79 points. And now their leading scorer, Chris Kaman, has a virus that caused him to miss practice yesterday. He is officially listed as questionable tonight, but even if he plays, it

Cleveland enters this game off a solid offensive performance in Orlando last night. The Cavs scored 102 points while shooting 48.1% (37-77) from the floor and a whopping 71.4% (10-14) from three-point land. But Cleveland will be facing a different kind of pace tonight. Orlando loves to run and play fast, and when given the chance, the Cavs often do the same. However, they would much rather play half-court basketball, and that is exactly Miami

The Hornets catch the red-hot Suns at the perfect time. Phoenix returns home off a 5-game Eastern road trip in which they played those 5 games over a 7-day stretch. Now they must play tonight

The last time the Celtics played on their home court, they allowed the Phoenix Suns to score 110 points. Boston lost that game, and their defense was abysmal as they allowed the Suns to shoot 50% from the floor and 54.2% from three-point land. With the Celtics returning home for this game, we expect their defense to make amends for that poor performance.

Utah is a team that needs to play at a fast pace in order to have success. When not allowed to get out and run, the Jazz have trouble on the offensive end of the floor. In games in which they

Dallas wanted to play at a fast pace this season, but an injury to Josh Howard prevented the Mavs from doing that early this season. But Howard returned to the lineup on Saturday night against the Raptors, and the offensive numbers were off the charts.

The Mavs scored 129 points while shooting an incredible 62.4% (53-85) from the floor. They also hit 50% of their three-pointers (10-20). That offensive explosion wasn

Utah is off to their worst start in seven years. The Jazz are currently just 2-4 SU/ATS which includes a 0-2 SU/ATS mark of the road, but Utah is putting a lot of emphasis on this 4-game Eastern Conference road trip.

Portland is coming off a big win on national TV Friday night versus the Spurs and it is hard to imagine the Blazers will have as much focus tonight against a struggling Minnesota squad. Portland qualifies in a letdown spot this evening and the Blazers are not an explosive team which makes it more difficult for them to win by large margins. In fact, Portland has only won once this season by more than 9 points and has not won any of their six games by more than 12 points.

Minnesota is a young squad, but they play hard and despite their 1-5 straight-up record, they are a profitable 4-2 against the spread this season. The Timberwolves are 2-0 ATS on the road this season with each loss coming by just 8 and 3 point margins. Minnesota fits a solid 54-32 ATS bounce-back situation which plays on teams coming off a double-digit SU loss as a favorite and the Timberwolves qualify in a 118-72 ATS big underdog situation tonight.

Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

The Celtics are off back-to-back disappointing efforts, so expect them to get their defensive swagger back tonight in New Jersey. For the second straight game, the Celtics allowed their opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field. Last night was also the first time that Boston allowed over 100 points in a game this season.

Milwaukee figures to struggle going forward. The Bucks lost their best player and scorer, Michael Redd, to a knee injury. Redd will be out for at least two weeks, and without him on the floor, the Bucks simply lack any offensive firepower. In their loss at Chicago on Tuesday, the Bucks scored only 81 points while shooting a dismal 39.6% from the floor and 20% from three-point land.

Things look to be getting worse as Milwaukee head coach Scott Skiles has already used 3 different starting lineups and the players know they are a work in progress. "It'll take 10 or 15 games to kind of get your rhythm back, especially with a defense on you. When you're working out in the off-season and nobody is really banging you, you've got to get used to that.

Milwaukee lacks offensive firepower with Michael Redd out of the lineup. Redd is their best player and leading scorer and playing without him makes the Bucks limited. They are starting a rookie, Brandon Jennings, at the point guard spot which also makes things more difficult.

The Bucks scored only 81 points at Chicago on Tuesday night; they shot 39.6% from the floor and 20% from three-point land. So far, Bucks

Chicago

The Celtics defense has been downright nasty. They

Chicago is in a good spot to get a convincing win tonight. The Bulls return home off back-to-back road losses at Boston and Miami, and they catch Milwaukee without their best player, Michael Redd, who is out because of a knee injury. Redd

The Lakers are 2-1 so far this season, but going unnoticed by the betting marketplace is the fact that they

Atlanta is 2-0 so far this season and hot starts are nothing new for the Hawks. Last year they won their first six games before losing their seventh on a buzzer-beater at Boston. Tonight

These two teams enter tonight

It

Detroit is changing their style of play this season. New head coach John Kuester, who came over from Cleveland, wants the Pistons to play at a quicker, faster pace. And their roster is geared to do just that after losing defensive-minded guys like Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess. Replacing them now are younger, offensive-minded guys like Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

"We got a number of guys that are very good individually one-on-one," Kuester said. "You talk about Rip Hamilton coming off screens, you have Ben Gordon -- a prolific scorer at times, Tayshaun Prince has a great feel for the game offensively, Rodney Stuckey has scored 40 points in a game already, and Will Bynum is just explosive. We have a number of players that have the capability of putting the numbers up."

Defensively, Detroit was terrible in the preseason, especially in the paint. The Pistons allowed four teams in row to shoot over 50% as their transition defense allowed a lot of fast-break baskets. Memphis has a young team that is also looking to run with offensive-minded guys like Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo, and they will be able to take advantage of the weak Detroit defense and score easy buckets. These two teams are much better on offense than they are on defense, and that means we should see a high-scoring game tonight.

Play OVER the total.

Game analysis will be available at 2 pm ET.

Play CELTICS (+).

Cleveland

The oddsmakers have struggled to post an accurate total in this series and tonight

The Magic won their first NBA Finals game in franchise history on Tuesday and they shot a NBA Finals record 62.5% from the field, yet they still did not cover the pointspread and only won by 4 points. This is a bad sign for Orlando as the Lakers were not focused on defense in Game 3 as Los Angeles has shown the tendency to letdown after big wins in the playoffs and this was definitely possible on Tuesday after an emotional overtime win on Sunday in which the Lakers established a 2-0 series lead. When the home team wins the first two games in the NBA Finals, they win the series 94% of the time, plus Phil Jackson coached teams are 43-0 all-time in their series after win Game 1, so a letdown was natural for the Lakers.

Los Angeles should have better focus tonight and they are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS after a straight-up loss in the playoffs this season with outright wins by 14, 13, 40, 19, 6 and 9 point wins for an average victory by 16.8 points per game. Los Angeles is also a fantastic 27-11 ATS in all games as an underdog the past two seasons.

Los Angeles blew 10-point leads in both regular season losses to the Magic, but Lakers bounced back with a strong 25-point win Game 1 and they held the Magic to just 29.9% FG in Game 1 and only 41.8% FG in Game 2, so it appears the Lakers terrible defensive performance in Game 3 was an abnormality and due largely to the Lakers

The high-scoring result in Game 3 was extremely misleading as both teams shot way above their normal averages as the Lakers hit 51.3% FG and the Magic shot 62.5% from the field which set a NBA Finals record. Despite these ridiculous shooting percentages, the game still went Over by just 14 points as the pace of play was slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 180.5 points and my re-scoring percentage model totaling only 180 points which is the accurate total had each team shot their normal percentages from the field.

The pace of play has been consistently slow in all three games so far as Game 1 easily went Under the total by 31 points with a total score of just 175 points. My re-scoring pace and percentage models totaled just 189 and 193 in that game. Game 2 stayed Under the total by 26 points before overtime and there were just 176 total points scored in regulation time. The pace of play was once again slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 180.5 with my re-scoring percentage model totaling only 177 points.

The oddsmakers were way off with their posted Over/Under lines for Games 1 & 2 and this caused them to drop the Game 3 line (198) a full eight points lower than the opening line from Game 1 (206). The oddsmakers have now overadjusted back up and the opening number of 203 has quickly been bet down in Game 4. There is still plenty of value with the Under as this line is nearly three points higher than Game 3 and Orlando has played better defense and lower scoring games at home this season where they average just 192.7 total points per home game. NBA playoff games are normally lower scoring than regular season games as teams bring more focus and intensity on defense. This is especially true in games between a pair of Class-A squads and tonight

Game 1 easily went Under the total by 31 points with a total score of just 175 points. My re-scoring pace and percentage models totaled just 189 and 193 in that game. Game 2 stayed Under the total by 26 points before overtime and there were just 176 total points scored in regulation time. The pace of play was once again slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 180.5 with my re-scoring percentage model totaling only 177 points.

The oddsmakers were way off with their posted Over/Under lines for Games 1 & 2 and this has now caused them to drop the Game 3 line a full eight points lower than the opening line from Game 1. Despite this move down, there is still value with the Under as Orlando has played better defense and lower scoring games at home this season where they average just 192.4 total points per home game. NBA playoff games are normally lower scoring than regular season games as teams bring more focus and intensity on defense. This is especially true in games between a pair of Class-A squads and tonight

The Lakers were in a solid situation on Thursday as Class-A home teams normally perform well in Game 1 at home. The situation now favors Orlando as quality road teams normally bounce back in Game 2 after a straight-up loss and the Magic fit a solid 36-16 ATS situation based on that premise. Orlando also fits a strong 41-18 situation which plays on road teams that are coming off a 20+ point SU loss.

The Lakers were focused for Game 1 as they had lost both regular season meetings to the Magic, however the Lakers have shown the tendency to letdown after an easy win in the playoffs this year. In fact, Los Angeles is just 2-7 ATS following their past nine playoffs wins within the same series.

Orlando won both regular season meetings this season SU and ATS and the Magic are an excellent 18-6 ATS as an underdog in all games with either Nelson or Alston in the lineup at point guard this season, excluding their late season loss at Milwaukee in which the starters were rested. Orlando has also been an excellent play off a straight-up loss under head coach Stan Van Gundy, including an incredible 30-6 ATS after a SU road loss and 32-11 ATS when playing with same season revenge.

You might consider putting part of your play on the money-line (+280) as Orlando has a chance at the outright win tonight.

Play MAGIC (+) as a 1.5 unit play.

The public loves to play the Over and the NBA Finals have more public money than a typical NBA game normally sees. For this reason, the oddsmakers have been forced to inflate tonight

Four of the five playoff games in this series have gone Over the total, but this has caused the oddsmakers to inflate the total and we get excellent line value with the Under as my power ratings using all games this season predicts just 185 and tonight

The Lakers have shown the tendency to letdown after a win in the playoffs, but this has been more than compensated for in this inflated pointspread tonight and we now get solid line value with the best team in the Western Conference (and perhaps the entire league) at a nice underdog price. In fact, the Lakers are 25-11 ATS in all games as an underdog the past two seasons.

It is only the third time in the nine head-to-head meetings this season that the Lakers have been installed as an underdog versus Denver and Los Angeles won Game 3 outright, 103-97, as a 3½-point underdog last Saturday. The Lakers won three of the four regular season meetings by 7, 14, and 14 point margins this season and the Lakers also won Game 1 even though they did not play well. Denver got the win in Game 2 as the Nuggets qualified in a strong bounce-back situation, but Los Angeles actually outplayed Denver in that game and the Lakers blew a 14-point lead. The Lakers won Game 3 outright as mentioned above and they also won Game 5 on Wednesday.

The Lakers dominated the Nuggets last year winning all three regular season meetings and sweeping all four playoff games. Overall, the Lakers were a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS versus the Nuggets last season, winning by 28, 4, 17, 14, 15, 18, and 6-point margins (average win by 14.6 points per game). The Lakers are 13-3 straight-up in all games versus the Nuggets the past two seasons and Los Angeles presents value at an inflated underdog price tonight.

Play LAKERS (+) as a 1 unit play.

Despite trailing 3-1 in this series, the Cavaliers still have the best record in the league this season at 75-19 (.798) and they avoid elimination on their strong home court tonight where they stand 44-2 SU this season (excludes regular season finale when starters were rested). Cleveland outscores their opponents by +14.2 points per game and has outshot them 47.8% to 41.9% from the field.

Games 1 & 2 in Cleveland were both decided by exactly one point, but it was misleading as the Cavaliers dominated both games and blew a 16-point lead in Game 1 and blew a 23-point lead in Game 2. Cleveland also held an 8-point lead at Orlando in Game 4 and they have led entering the fourth quarter in three of the four playoff games in this series. The Cavaliers should bounce back with a solid effort tonight and quality home teams off exactly two playoffs losses are a strong play and the Cavaliers fit a 75-42 ATS situation based on that premise.

One of the reasons the Magic have performed well against Cleveland this season (7-0 ATS) is because Orlando has shot well above their normal percentage from three-point range. In fact, the Magic have hit 45, 46, 54, 55, 48, 43, and 45% from long range in each meeting so far. This is a combined 76-for-184 (41.3%) in the seven games and it is unlikely to continue as Orlando has only averaged 37.9% shooting from beyond the arc this season (versus opponents that allow 36.5%), while Cleveland is a strong defensive squad that allows just 33.5% from three-point range (versus opponents that average 36.6%). This means Orlando should be hitting only 34.9% from three-point range and the Magic are due for a correction and the past numbers have produced some misleading results.

Play CAVALIERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

This series is now tied 2-2, but the Lakers are still the best team in the Western Conference with a 75-23 SU (.765) record this season which is a full 10 games better than the Nuggets. Los Angeles was in a letdown spot in Game 4 and they lost 120-101, but the Lakers should bounce back with a solid effort on their strong home court tonight where they stand 43-7 SU this season with an average win by +10.2 points per game where they outshoot their opponents 47.6% to 42.8% from the field.

The Lakers are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS after a loss in the playoffs this season with wins by 14, 13, 40, 19, and 6-point margins for an average win by 18.4 points per game. Los Angeles also fits a solid 66-42 ATS playoff situation which plays on quality teams that are coming off a double-digit loss.

Los Angeles won three of the four regular season meetings by 7, 14, and 14 point margins and the Lakers also won Game 1 last week even though they did not play well. Denver got the win in Game 2 as the Nuggets qualified in a strong bounce-back situation, but Los Angeles actually outplayed Denver in that game and the Lakers blew a 14-point lead.

The Lakers dominated the Nuggets last year winning all three regular season meetings and sweeping all four playoff games. Overall, the Lakers were a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS versus the Nuggets last season, winning by 28, 4, 17, 14, 15, 18, and 6 point margins (average win by 14.6 points per game).

Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

Despite trailing 2-1 in this series, the Cavaliers still have the best record in the league this season at 75-18 (.806) and they should bounce back and tie this series tonight. Cleveland presents value in a basic straight-up win situation and Class-A teams off a loss have historically been a strong play in the postseason. The Cavaliers fit a 52-22 ATS situation based on that premise and they also qualify in a 36-16 Game 4 situation tonight.

The Magic have matched up well versus Cleveland during the past two seasons, but the Cavaliers have still outplayed Orlando in two of the three playoff games so far. Cleveland blew a 16-point lead at home in Game 1 in an eventual 107-106 loss and the Cavaliers also blew a 23-point lead in Game 2 before LeBron James a game-winning three-point shot at the buzzer. Orlando responded with a solid effort at home in Game 3, but the situation now favors Cleveland to bounce back off the loss.

One of the reasons the Magic have performed well against Cleveland this season (6-0 ATS) is because Orlando has shot well above their normal percentage from three-point range. In fact, the Magic have hit 45, 46, 54, 55, 48, and 43% from long range in each meeting so far. This is a combined 59-for-146 (40.4%) in the six games and it is unlikely to continue as Orlando has only averaged 37.8% shooting from beyond the arc this season (versus opponents that allow 36.5%), while Cleveland is a strong defensive squad that allows just 33.5% from three-point range (versus opponents that average 36.4%). This means Orlando should be hitting only 34.8% from three-point range and the Magic are due for a correction and the past numbers have produced some misleading results.

Play CAVALIERS (-) as a 1½ unit play.

The first three games in this playoff series have all stayed Under the total and this has now caused the oddsmakers to lower the Over/Under line a full six points less than in Game 1.

Games 1 & 2 totaled 208 and 209 points which is right around tonight

A tough loss with the Under in Game 2 as LeBron James hit a game winning three-point shot at the buzzer to send it Over by a couple of points. The pace of play was still not that fast as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 180.5 and my re-scoring percentage model totaled only 181 as Orlando shot well above their expected percentage from the field (47.9% FG) and also from three-point range (43.5%).

Game 1 was also high-scoring, but this was because both teams shot well above their expected averages from the field as Cleveland hit 49% FG and Orlando shot 55% FG. These averages are unlikely to continue as both the Cavaliers and Magic are still two of the best defensive teams in the league and each should respond with a stronger defensive effort tonight. This game also fits a solid 62% Under situation based on the fact the first two games went Over the total.

The Magic are 54-41 Under in all games this season and they allow just 93.9 points per game and only 43.5% FG (versus opponents that average 99.5 ppg and 45.9% FG) and Orlando has been even better defensively at home where they permit just 91.0 ppg and only 42.7% FG and are 30-16 Under. Cleveland is 51-41 Under in all games this season and they permit just 90.4 points per game and only 43.0% FG (versus opponents that average 99.1 ppg and 45.7% FG).

The high-scoring results in Game 1 and 2 have now created excellent line value as the oddsmakers have inflated tonight

The Lakers were the best team in the Western Conference and they present value coming off a straight-up loss and at a rare underdog price. The oddsmakers are forced to inflate the line tonight because Denver has a strong home court and mainly because the Nuggets are an incredible 11-0-1 ATS in the playoffs this season. This strong pointspread record is actually a negative indicator and the Nuggets fit a 17-44 ATS situation which plays against playoff favorites on a 3-0 ATS run.

The Lakers also qualify in a solid 26-12 ATS Class-A bounce-back situation and this is the first time in the seven head-to-head meetings versus Denver this season that the Lakers have been installed as an underdog. Los Angeles won three of the four regular season meetings by 7, 14, and 14 point margins and the Lakers also won Game 1 on Tuesday even though they did not play well. Denver got the win on Thursday in Game 2 as the Nuggets qualified in a strong bounce-back situation, but Los Angeles actually outplayed Denver in that game and the Lakers blew a 14-point lead.

The Lakers dominated the Nuggets last year winning all three regular season meeting and sweeping all four playoff games. Overall, the Lakers were a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS versus the Nuggets last season, winning by 28, 4, 17, 14, 15, 18, and 6 point margins (average win by 14.6 points per game).

Play LAKERS (+) as a 1 unit play.

Game 1 was high-scoring, but this was because both teams shot well above their expected averages from the field as Cleveland hit 49% FG and Orlando shot 55% FG. These averages are unlikely to continue as both the Cavaliers and Magic are still two of the best defensive teams in the league and each should respond with a stronger defensive effort in Game 2 tonight.

The Magic are 54-40 Under in all games this season and they allow just 93.9 points per game and only 43.5% FG (versus opponents that average 99.5 ppg and 45.9% FG). Cleveland is 51-40 Under in all games this season and they permit just 90.4 points per game and only 42.9% FG (versus opponents that average 99.1 ppg and 45.7% FG).

The high-scoring result in Game 1 has now created line value as the oddsmakers have inflated tonight

Despite their 105-103 loss in Game 1 on Tuesday night, the Denver Nuggets still got the pointspread win as a 6½-point road underdog. The Nuggets are now 10-0-1 ATS in all playoff games this season. Denver has also bounced back with solid efforts following their other two straight-up losses in the postseason.

Denver lost Game 3 at New Orleans, 95-93, as a 4½-point underdog and then bounced backed with an easy 58-point road win that tied an NBA playoff record. Denver also responded with an easy 14-point win in the previous round versus the Mavericks after the Nuggets lost Game 4 at Dallas 119-117 as a 2-point underdog.

Denver outplayed the Lakers on Tuesday night and the Nuggets led for the majority of the game, including a 13-point lead, and the Nuggets never trailed the entire night by more than 4 points, covering the pointspread from start to finish.

Los Angeles was in a strong 46-17 ATS situation in Game 1 and still failed to cover. The situation now favors the Nuggets to bounce back as quality teams in Game 2 have historically been solid plays after a straight-up loss and Denver fits a 55-28 ATS situation based on that premise.

Denver continues to hold the edge down low versus the Lakers and the Nuggets outshot Los Angeles 51% to 40% from two-point range in Game 1 and held a 46-40 points in the paint edge. In fact, Denver has now outshot the Lakers from two-point range in four of the five head-to-head meetings this season and Denver has outscored the Lakers from two-point range in four of those five games also.

Play NUGGETS (+) as a 1 unit play.

Cleveland dominated Detroit and Atlanta in the first two rounds, but the Cavaliers will now be stepping up in class and facing a much stronger opponent in the Orlando Magic. The Cavaliers have not played since last Monday (May 11th) and the eight days of rest might actually leave the team a bit flat tonight.

Orlando remains one of the best pointspread teams in the league under head coach Stan Van Gundy and Orlando has been particularly strong on the road with a solid 59-35 ATS in all road games, including 30-16 ATS as a road underdog.

The Magic also match up well versus Cleveland and actually outplayed them in the three head-to-head meetings during the regular season. Orlando won both home games easily and held 25 and 41 point leads. The Magic lost their one trip to Cleveland, but Orlando still got the ATS cover, losing just 97-93 as a 6½-point underdog. The Magic outscored the Cavaliers by +30 points from two-point range in the three meetings this season and Orlando led entering the fourth quarter in all three games.

The Magic also performed well versus Cleveland last year with a 3-1 SU/ATS record and the Magic are 10-1 ATS in their past eleven head-to-head meetings versus the Cavaliers.

Play MAGIC (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Nuggets have covered all ten playoff games versus New Orleans and Dallas, but they are now stepping up in class versus the best team in the Western Conference. Denver

Game 7

Despite losing two of the past three games, the Lakers are still the best team in the Western Conference and they will be ready to play in this must-win Game 7 today. Los Angeles overlooked the Rockets in Game 4 when it was announced that Yao Ming was out for the rest of the playoffs due to a broken left foot. Los Angeles was embarrassed and never led in the entire game and actually trailed by 29 points entering the fourth quarter of play.

The Lakers then bounced back with a powerful effort at home in Game 5 and won easily 118-78, including a 40-point lead entering the fourth quarter. Los Angeles came out flat again on the road in Game 6 and lost outright 95-80 and never led the entire night.

Los Angeles has shown the ability to bounce-back after a loss as they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in the postseason after a defeat which includes that easy 40-point win in Game 5 and also includes a 13-point win in Game 2 and a 14-point win in the previous series versus Utah on the road in Game 4.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have shown the tendency to suffer a letdown after a big win as Houston is only 2-10 ATS after a straight-up underdog win this season, including 0-2 SU/ATS in this playoff series. The Rockets have been a much weaker team on the road where they stand just 22-25 SU, compared to 38-9 SU at home, and the Rockets are 1-4 SU/ATS in Los Angeles this season with the four losses coming by 29, 12, 13, and 40 point margins.

Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Lakers bounced back as expected on Tuesday night with an easy 40-point home win and this has now created an inflated line in Game 6 tonight. The Rockets were only an 8-point home underdog without Yao Ming in Game 4 on Sunday and Houston won that game outright 99-87 in a game in which they never trailed and led by 29 points entering the fourth quarter.

Houston has been a strong home team this season with a 37-9 SU record and teams coming off a blowout loss have historically been a strong play in the NBA playoffs. In fact, Houston now qualifies in an excellent 59-33 ATS situation based on that premise.

Play ROCKETS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Celtics are a weaker team without Kevin Garnett and despite back-to-back SU wins, they are still the inferior team in this series. The Celtics used a winning shot at the buzzer last Sunday for their 95-94 win in Orlando and Boston qualified in a strong bounce-back situation after losing the previous game by 21 points. Boston

Denver suffered a misleading 109-107 loss in Game 4 on Monday night as the Nuggets held a 14-point lead and never trailed by more than four points in the entire game. The game landed right on the pointspread (+2), although some people might have found +2½ right before game time. The Nuggets are now 8-0-1 ATS in the postseason and they should close out this game tonight on their strong home court where they stand a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in the postseason with each win coming by at least l2 points or more (29, 15, 21, 14, and 12 margins).

The Nuggets are now coming off a straight-up loss for only the second time in the playoffs and Denver bounced back strong the first time with a NBA playoff record 58-point win, 121-63, as a 2½-point underdog against New Orleans.

The Nuggets were without center Chris Anderson in Game 4 on Monday as he was suffering from food poisoning and this left a weakness down low. The Mavericks exploited it as Dirk Nowitzki had a series-high 44 points and 13 rebounds. Anderson will be in the lineup tonight and Denver should now hold the edge down low as the Nuggets outscored Dallas in the paint in each of the first three games by a combined 156-98 point margin. The Nuggets also held a 76-43 free throw attempt edge in Games 1 & 2 on this court, including a dominating 36-13 edge in the first game.

Play NUGGETS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Celtics are a weaker team without Kevin Garnett and despite Sunday

Dallas suffered a heart-breaking loss in Game 3 on Saturday as the Mavericks blew a 105-101 lead with 0:31 remaining and allowed the Nuggets to score the final five points in a controversial 106-105 win. The Mavericks

Atlanta is obviously not going to win this series, but the line has been now been inflated way too high and my power ratings using all games this season favor Cleveland by just 5 points tonight. Teams that face a 0-3 deficit have struggled historically, but home underdogs are actually the one subset that has been profitable with an above .500 ATS record. This is often due to line value, which is extremely available tonight.

The Hawks continue to struggle on the road and now stand 1-8 SU/ATS in road playoff games the past two seasons, however Atlanta has been a strong home team with a solid 6-2 SU/ATS mark during that same span which included a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record against the eventual NBA champion Celtics last year. Overall, the home team is now 14-3 SU/ATS in all Atlanta playoff games the past two seasons.

The Hawks played better than the 97-82 final score indicated on Saturday as Atlanta only trailed by one point at halftime. The Hawks were an 8½-point underdog in that game and that was with leading scorer Joe Johnson listed as doubtful, although he did end up playing. The Hawks were only a 4-point home underdog in the two regular season meetings versus Cleveland on this floor and they won outright 97-92 in one game and only lost 88-87 in the other.

Play HAWKS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Celtics were embarrassed in Game 3 on Friday night as they lost 117-96 and trailed by as many as 25 points and never held the lead the entire night. It was similar to Game 1 in which Boston trailed by 28 points, before rallying in the fourth quarter to make the final score seem respectable.

However, Boston bounced back strong in Game 2 and won easily 112-94 in a game which they never trailed and led by as many as 26 points. Look for another strong bounce-back effort from the Celtics tonight as quality teams usually respond well after a blowout loss in the playoffs and Boston qualifies in a solid 56-26 ATS situation based on that premise. The Celtics also fit a 37-18 ATS Game 4 bounce back situation.

Play CELTICS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Hawks continue to struggle on the road and now stand 1-8 SU/ATS in road playoff games the past two seasons, however Atlanta has been a strong home team with a solid 6-1 SU/ATS mark during that same span which includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record against the eventual NBA champion Celtics last year. Overall, the home team is now 14-2 SU/ATS in all Atlanta playoff games the past two seasons.

The Hawks might be without their leading scorer, Joe Johnson, who is a game-time decision with an ankle injury, but the line has been more than adjusted as my power ratings favor Cleveland by just 6 points without Johnson in the lineup and the Hawks were only a 4-point home underdog in the two regular season meetings versus Cleveland on this floor. Teams often respond with increased focus when a star player is out and Johnson

The Celtics are a weaker team without Kevin Garnett and Boston is just 5-4 SU (.555) in the playoffs, compared to their fantastic 62-20 SU (.756) record during the regular season. The Celtics biggest drop off has occurred on defense as they miss Garnett

The oddsmakers have been forced to raise the line in this game after Cleveland

The Lakers were a perfect 4-0 straight-up in the four head-to-head meetings during the regular season and this is a bad sign for the Rockets as teams that were swept in the regular season (3+ games) are 0-25 all-time in a NBA playoff series.

Despite this regular season dominance, the Lakers came out flat in Game 1 and lost outright 100-92 as an 8½-point home favorite. Los Angeles appeared to be flat after their extended 7-day layoff, but they should bounce back with a better effort tonight and they now fit a solid 60% ATS playoff situation which plays on quality teams coming off a SU loss in their previous game.

Los Angeles has a strong home court where they stand 39-6 SU this season with an average win by +10 points per game and outshooting their opponents 47.7% to 43.0% from the field. Houston is only 22-23 SU on the road, compared to 36-8 SU at home, and the Rockets were dominated in their two trips to Los Angeles in the regular season, losing 111-82 and 93-81 in each game.

Yao Ming had a huge game for Houston on Monday night, scoring 28 points with 10 rebounds, but he injured his knee late in the game and might not be fully healthy tonight. Meanwhile, Kobe Bryant was playing with a sore throat and should be better this evening.

Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Cavaliers are easily the best team in the Eastern Conference with a 70-16 SU (.814) SU record which is currently 20½ games better than Atlanta

The Lakers were a perfect 4-0 straight-up in the four head-to-head meetings during the regular season and this is a bad sign for the Rockets as teams that were swept in the regular season (3+ games) are 0-25 all-time in a NBA playoff series.

Class-A teams and #1 seeds historically perform well in Game 1 of a playoff series and Los Angeles qualifies in a solid 45-16 ATS situation based on this premise. The Lakers were in the same situation in Game 1 against Utah in the previous round and won that game easily 113-100 in which they held a 22-point lead.

Los Angeles has a strong home court where they stand 39-5 SU this season with an average win by +10.2 points per game and outshooting their opponents 47.8% to 42.9% from the field. Houston is only 21-23 SU on the road, compared to 36-8 SU at home, and the Rockets were dominated in their two trips to Los Angeles this season, losing 111-82 and 93-81 in each game.

The Rockets have relied more on Yao Ming for scoring since Tracy McGrady was lost for the season and the Lakers matchup well down low as they have a pair of 7

The Nuggets dominated New Orleans in Round 1 and Denver won their three home games by 29, 15, and 21-point margins. Denver continues to have one of the strongest home court edges in the league due to the thin air and altitude. The Nuggets have also played much better at home this season with a 36-8 SU record, compared to just 22-21 SU on the road. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have been a much weaker road team this season with a 20-24 SU record, compared to their 34-9 SU mark at home.

Denver was a perfect 4-0 SU versus the Mavericks in the regular season and the close final scores were misleading as Denver dominated the games and held 10, 16, 17, and 11-point leads in each game, while never trailing by more than five points in any game. The Nuggets also outscored the Mavericks by +46 points in the paint in the four games and held a 78-40 free throw attempt edge in their two home games.

Denver is currently the second best team in the conference (after the Lakers) and Class-A home teams have historically performed well in Game 1 and the Nuggets fit an excellent 44-16 ATS situation based on that premise.

Play NUGGETS (-) as a 1 unit play.

Home teams are 80% straight-up all-time in Game 7 in the NBA playoffs and Atlanta has been a much stronger team at home this season with a 33-11 SU record, compared to just 17-27 SU on the road. Meanwhile, Miami has been a much weaker team on the road with a 16-28 SU mark, compared to their solid 30-14 SU record at home. We also get line value as my power ratings favor Atlanta by 7 points today.

The Hawks qualify in a solid 57-31 ATS situation which plays on teams coming off a blowout loss and Atlanta also fits a 64-38 ATS home favorite playoff situation. Atlanta was in a letdown spot on Friday in Game 6 as the Hawks were coming off easy back-to-back wins by 10 and 15-point margins in which Atlanta held dominating 21 and 23 point leads. The Hawks also dominated Miami in Game 1 with an easy 90-64 home win, but Atlanta then suffered a letdown in Game 2 and lost outright by 15 points. Miami was in an excellent bounce-back situation in Game 2 and the Heat also shot a ridiculous 15-for-26 (58%) from three-point range, including a remarkable 12-for-19 (63%) by Dwyane Wade and Daequan Cook combined.

Miami repeated their above average shooting again in Game 3 as they hit 12-for-23 (52%) from three-point range and blew out the Hawks 107-78. Three-point shooting is largely a random variable and can often lead to misleading results. Atlanta has been the more consistent team down low and they have only been outscored in the paint in one of the six playoff games.

Play HAWKS (-) as a 1 unit play.

Home teams historically win Game 7, but the oddsmakers usually over-inflate the line because of this fact and there is once again value with the Bulls tonight at an inflated underdog price. Boston is a much weaker team without Kevin Garnett, while Chicago is a much better team since they traded for John Salmons and Brad Miller from Sacramento in late February.

Salmons averages more than 36 minutes per game and finished the regular season ranked second in scoring (17.6 ppg), while Brad Miller averages more than 27 minutes per game and is fifth on the team in scoring (11.8 ppg). The Bulls were just 4-7 SU in their first eleven games with the new lineup, but have since gone 15-7 SU in their past 22 games. The arrival of the new players helped offset the loss of forward Loul Deng (13.8 ppg) who was injured on February 28th and is now out for the rest of the season.

While the Bulls are improving, the Celtics have become weaker without future Hall of Fame forward Kevin Garnett in the lineup. Boston is a respectable 21-10 SU in all games without Garnett this season, compared to 44-13 SU with him in the lineup, but Boston only wins by an average of +3.5 points per game without the future Hall of Fame member, compared to a +9.1 point average margin of victory with Garnett. The difference is on defense as Boston has permitted only 91 points per game with KG, compared to more than 101 ppg without him.

My power ratings using just games with the current lineups favors Boston by only 4 points tonight and Chicago is already a perfect 3-0 ATS in the three playoff games in Boston with a straight-up win and a pair of close losses by only 3 and 2 points apiece. This has been an extremely close and competitive series with four of the six games going into overtime and only one of the six games being decided by more than 3 points.

The Bulls pulled the upset in Game 1 as an 8½-point underdog and they covered from start to finish as they never trailed by more than five points the entire day. The Bulls also covered in a narrow 118-115 loss in Game 2, but they came out flat in Game 3 and were embarrassed at home in a 21-point loss. Chicago has since bounced-back to win two of the past three games with their only loss coming in overtime in Game 5 in which Chicago blew an 11-point lead. The Bulls also blew a 13-point lead in Game 6 on Thursday.

Overall, these are two equal teams with the current lineups and the line value continues to favor Chicago. Boston has only outshot the Bulls 44.9% to 44.8% from the field in this series and Boston has actually been outplayed down low as Chicago holds a 173-162 free throw attempt edge. The Celtics have relied on their outside shot and despite hitting a fantastic 41% from three-point range; they have still only won easily in one of the six games.

Play BULLS (+) as a 1 unit play.