Chicago was terrible last night in Denver; the Bulls lost by 32 points (128-96). It was their worst game under head coach Tom Thibodeau as it was the Bulls largest margin of defeat and the most points allowed to an opponent. Chicago doesn

Toronto

Chicago comes in off an ugly 111-101 loss at Indiana on Monday night. But the Bulls were in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for that game as they were extremely shorthanded and playing their third game in four nights. Chicago is in much better shape for tonight

Milwaukee is in a tough situational and scheduling spot for tonight

Indiana is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. The Pacers have won four consecutive games as their offense has been unstoppable. Indiana has averaged 106 points per game during their current winning streak, and their offense also played well in the two games prior despite losing by 4 points in overtime and by a single point. The Pacers have scored 98 points or more in all six games, 101 points or more in five of the six games, and 110 points or more in three of the six games. To illustrate just how good Indian

Charlotte has a terrible 11-35 record on the season, including a 5-17 record on the road. But the Bobcats play hard for head coach Mike Dunlap, and we expect them to give a good effort tonight. Charlotte will be playing just their second game over the last five days so they are well-rested for tonight

New Orleans

Dallas comes into tonight

New Orleans is playing sneaky good basketball recently; the Hornets have gone 8-5 over their last 13 games with three of those five losses coming by 5 points or less. The spark that has made New Orleans play better basketball has been the insertion of Eric Gordon as the starting point guard. Gordon has started the last 11 games for New Orleans and the team has a +20 scoring differential in those games. In the four games prior, the Hornets were -11 in scoring differential which shows how much of an immediate impact the increased minutes for Gordon made on the court. Gordon is surrounded by some very good young talent and the Hornets have gelled as a team under the leadership of Gordon at the point. New Orleans good play should continue tonight in Utah against a struggling Jazz team.

Utah has won five of their last seven games, but looking deeper we can see some signs that the play of the Jazz has slipped a bit. Over their last four games, Utah has two wins by a combined 8 points and two losses by a combined 63 points. The Jazz got blown out by 45 points in their last game against the Rockets as their defense allowed an ugly 125 points. Over their last three games, Utah

Houston

Houston is back to playing some good basketball. The Rockets have won and covered their last two games after scoring a total of 219 points. Houston was in a funk prior to those games as they had lost 7 consecutive games and 8 of their previous 9 games while losing to the pointspread in all 9 of those games.

Memphis suffered two losses last night; the Grizzlies lost on the court 91-83 to the Hornets and they also lost point guard Mike Conley to a sprained ankle. Conley is officially listed as questionable for tonight and he may even play, but he will be limited. Memphis will be playing their third game in four nights, and they have a much bigger game on deck at Oklahoma City. This may be a game in which the Grizzlies give less than their best effort, and if Conley is not effective, Memphis

New York settled their score with Boston on Thursday night as the Knicks beat the Celtics 89-86. New York will look to avoid a letdown tonight in Philadelphia, but that will hard to do considering the Knicks have already blown out the Sixers twice this season. New York won by 16 points (100-84) at home and they won at Philadelphia by 22 points (110-88). The Knicks also have a bigger game at home tomorrow night against the Hawks. Atlanta and New York will be in a battle all season for playoff position; the Knicks are currently 26-14 while the Hawks are 25-18. New York isn

San Antonio has been overvalued in the betting market for the last two weeks. The Spurs have gone 8-3 SU over their last eleven games, but they

Indiana is playing much better basketball right now as the Pacers have won seven of their last nine ballgames. They come in off an impressive 82-81 win at Memphis in their last game in which they held the Grizzlies to just 42.2% (35-83) shooting from the field. The Pacers defense has been fantastic as they

Washington is playing terrific basketball right now; the Wizards have won four of their last six games and they

Oklahoma City has played six of their last eight games on the road, and tonight

Washington is playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Wizards have won three of their last four games and they

Washington finally has their best player back on the court as John Wall returned for the Wizards 93-83 win over Atlanta on Saturday night. The Wizards are a much better team with Wall on the court, and his return has coincided with Washington playing some good basketball. The Wizards have won three consecutive games and they

Cleveland hasn

Portland went on quite a run recently, but the Blazers have lost back-to-back games and we expect another loss in Denver tonight. The Blazers had won 12 of their previous 15 games prior to losing their last two games to the Warriors and Thunder. Portland

Orlando finally snapped their 10-game losing streak with a big upset win over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Magic won that game 104-101 as 12

Portland has been on quite a run recently. The Blazers have won 12 of their last 15 games including last night

New York has played inconsistent basketball since mid-December. The Knicks are just 5-6 since December 17th despite playing 7 of those 11 games on their home floor. New York opened the season at 18-5, but injuries and personnel changes began to happen and the recent results haven

We played the Lakers and Rockets Over the total last night and that won easily when the teams combined to score 237 points. Los Angeles is without their three big guys as Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Jordan Hill are all sidelined with injuries. This team wasn

Lakers @ Rockets 8:00 PM EST
Play On: Over the Total (218

Portland

Los Angeles is on a current 17-game winning streak coming into tonight

Denver has been playing good basketball recently; the Nuggets have won three of their last four games by 12 points or more. However, this is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Nuggets. They come in off back-to-back blowout wins over the Lakers and Mavericks with the latest coming last night in Dallas. This will be Denver

Philadelphia hit a rough patch for the first three weeks of December. Over that time, the Sixers went just 2-9 SU. It also didn

Los Angeles beat us last night as they won their 15th consecutive game by blowing out the Boston Celtics by 29 points (106-77). The Celtics played their worst game of the season by a long mile, but we

Boston played terrible basketball from late-November to mid-December. The Celtics lost six of ten games during that stretch while going just 3-7 ATS in those games. But Boston has played much better over their last three games as they

Philadelphia hit a rough patch for the first three weeks of December. Over that time, the Sixers went just 2-9 SU. It also didn

New York has played good basketball all season. The Knicks come into this game at 20-7 on the year, but their recent play has been a bit choppy. New York is just 2-2 over their last four games as they have alternated wins and losses. Their last game was a 94-91 win over Minnesota, but the Knicks trailed that game by 11 points before rallying in the fourth quarter to pull out the 3-point win. New York has been money burners against the pointspread as well as they are just 4-8 ATS over their last 12 ballgames and just 1-4 ATS over their last five games. This will also be their first road game in almost two weeks, and they are playing their fourth game in seven days. So not only are the Knicks in a bad scheduling spot, but they are also not playing in good form.

Los Angeles comes into today

Chicago is quietly playing good basketball right now. While most of the attention is focused on who

San Antonio is in a bit of a funk right now. The Spurs have lost three of their last four games after winning 10 of their previous 11 games. San Antonio

Chicago is quietly playing good basketball right now. While most of the attention is focused on who

Golden St won again for us on Wednesday night when they beat Miami 97-95 as 8

Golden St continues to play excellent basketball, and fortunately they

These two teams will play for the second time this season in Brooklyn; the Nets won the first game 96-89 in overtime. This is an important game between inner city rivals, and the Knicks are hell bent on revenging that earlier loss.

Golden St has been playing excellent basketball recently. The Warriors have won six of their last seven games and ten of their last thirteen games overall. The Warriors offense has kicked into high gear as they are finally playing with a healthy Stephen Curry.

Dallas will be playing their fifth road game in their last six games, and since they come in off a win at Phoenix on Thursday night, we expect some regression tonight in Houston. The Mavericks are not a good team, and they are still playing without Dirk Nowitzki. Dallas suffered two more injuries in their game against the Suns as Shawn Marion left with a groin pull and Chris Kaman left with a sprained ankle. Both guys are listed as game-time decisions with Marion most likely to miss this game. With or without those guys, Dallas will be up against it tonight as they are facing a young and energized Houston team returning home off a loss.

The Rockets got blown out at San Antonio last night, but they are a very deep team that spreads their minutes around well. Houston also has a lot of youth so there

Golden St came through for us last night when they won 109-102 at Brooklyn, and we

Orlando has been playing much better basketball recently. The Magic have won two of their last three games and they

These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now, and that has created value in this game tonight. Golden St has won four of their last five games and eight of their last eleven games overall. The Warriors offense has kicked into high gear as they are finally playing with a healthy Stephen Curry.

Tonight

Dallas played last night in Los Angeles and the Mavericks got waxed by the Clippers 112-90. That was the sixth time over their last seven games in which Dallas allowed 100 points or more. Their defense is getting shredded right now, and we expect more of the same tonight in Phoenix. The Mavericks offense hasn

New York is in a very difficult scheduling spot for this game tonight. The Knicks won on a buzzer beater last night in Charlotte as they squeaked by the Bobcats with a 100-98 win. Carmelo Anthony also got hurt in that game as he cut his finger which required six stitches to close the gash. Anthony will be a game-time decision tonight, but even if he plays, how effective will he be shooting the ball? New York is also playing just their third back-to-back road set of the season; they are 0-2 in those games losing 105-95 at Memphis and 114-111 at Dallas earlier this season. The Knicks also beat Miami by 20 points (104-84) in the season opener, so they will be facing a motivated Heat team looking to atone for that blowout loss.

Miami comes in off an embarrassing 105-101 loss at Washington on Tuesday night. The was just the 2nd win for the Wizards this season so Miami will be focused on getting that memory out of their minds as soon as possible. The Heat have been exceptional when playing at home off a road loss. In fact, Miami is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS based on tonight

Milwaukee comes into this game off an ugly 102-81 loss at New Orleans on Monday night. The 81 points scored by the Bucks was their lowest offensive output of the season. They shot just 38.2% (29-76) from the field and they hit just 65.2% (15-23) from the free throw line. Milwaukee shoots 74.5% as a team from the line so the Bucks truly played an all around bad game. But the Bucks have proven to bounce back strong off a loss, and in fact, they are 32-10 ATS dating back to last season in this situation based on tonight

Phoenix has been dreadful on their current road trip. The Suns have lost four of their last five games because they aren

Los Angeles was on a 4-game losing streak prior to winning their last two games at home. Their offense woke up as they scored 101 and 116 points in those two wins; they scored 98 points or less in four of their previous five games. The Clippers now take back to the road where they

Denver played last night at Golden St and they lost 106-105 on a last-second shot after blowing an 8-point fourth quarter lead. The Nuggets have to wheel right back tonight and play an angry Lakers team that was embarrassed in their last game. The Nuggets, especially their defense, have not fared too well in road games on back-to-back nights. In fact, the Nuggets have been in this situation six times between this season and last. In those six games, an average of 225 points has been scored with the Nuggets allowing more than 100 points in all six games. This situation has produced a 5-1 ATS record to the Over based on tonight

Houston has morphed into a strong offensive team recently. The Rockets have gelled on the court and they

Toronto finally got their point guard back on the court, and his presence makes the Raptors a competitive team. Kyle Lowry is the leader of the Raptors, and he brings a toughness and attitude that the entire team embraces. Toronto was run over last night by a red hot Houston offense and they lost 117-101; it didn

San Antonio comes in off a double overtime win in Toronto on Sunday afternoon. The Spurs won that game 111-106, but three of their starters played more than 41 minutes while two of those guys played more than 46 minutes. San Antonio is also playing their third game in four nights on the road, and for an old team this is a terrible scheduling and situational spot. The Spurs will be playing just their third back-to-back set of the season; they won twice in this spot but only by 2 and 3 points. San Antonio has also scored 327 points in their last three games so they are due to throw in a clunker.

Washington has yet to win a game this season. The Wizards come into tonight

Oklahoma City hasn

The Washington Wizards have yet to win a game this season. They come into tonight

Brooklyn comes into this game in tremendous form; the Nets have won five consecutive games thanks to their offense. During their 5-game winning streak, Brooklyn is averaging 101 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field. They

Phoenix comes into tonight

Washington played an ugly game last night in Charlotte; the Wizards lost 92-76 after shooting a horrendous 29.8% (25-84) from the field and 16.1% (5-31) from three-point land. The Wizards scored 27 points in the first quarter but they only scored 49 total points over the final three quarters. That

Washington comes into tonight

Boston opened the season at 0-2, but since then they

Dallas has been able to win four of their five games early on this season despite playing without Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, and Rodrigue Beaubois. However, before we give them too much credit, let

Orlando is off to a surprising 2-1 start this season. The Magic are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA at season

Minnesota comes in off a blowout loss at Toronto last night; the Timberwolves lost that game 105-86. That loss, and the fact that they are playing on back-to-back nights, has created a lot of value for this game. Minnesota is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and despite being without their two best players (Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio), they are still a tough out. Head coach Rick Adelman did not play his starters over the last four minutes of the fourth quarter last night as the game was out of reach. So despite playing on consecutive nights, Minnesota will not be that fatigued, especially since they play a 10-man rotation.

Brooklyn played in an important game on Saturday night. It was their season opener at home in a new arena for new ownership. Not only that, but the Nets were playing for the surrounding areas that were devastated by Hurricane Sandy. That was an emotional game, and Brooklyn delivered a107-100 win over the Raptors. But tonight it

Denver comes into tonight

Memphis has made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, and if all goes well this season, they should be back for a third straight year. But they need to get off to a better start as they

These two teams last met in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals a season ago; the Heat won that game 101-88 and went on to win the NBA title. That loss was a hard one for Boston to take, and they get their chance at avenging that loss right out of the gate in the season opener tonight.

This total is not priced correctly based on how these teams want to play. Boston is a team that excels when they play faster and allow Rajon Rondo to make plays in the open court. The Celtics have the stigma of being a

The NBA championship is on the line tonight as Miami is one win away from winning the title. Knowing that, we can expect Miami to be extremely focused on the defensive end of the court. And that shouldn

Miami has now won back-to-back games in this series to take a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals. The Heat won by 6 points (91-85), but Game 3 went back and forth with both teams making multiple runs. Miami was fortunate to make the last winning run as they closed the game on a 5-0 run over the final 1:19 of the game; that turned a 1-point Miami lead into a 6-point SU and ATS loss for Oklahoma City. The Thunder

The first two games in this series were actually played at a much slower pace than the final scores indicate. Game 1 had 199 points scored and Game 2 had 196 points scored, but both games should have been much lower scoring. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model totaled just 181.5 points in Game 1 and just 183 points in Game 2. We saw a correction in Game 3 when the Thunder and Heat scored just 176 points. My mathematical re-score in that game was only 178.5 points so there was nothing misleading about the final score. We expect the slow pace to continue in Game 4 tonight, and there

Miami bounced back strong as expected in Game 2; the Heat led the entire game and won 100-96. The game was not as close as the 4-point margin of victory indicates as Miami led by as many as 17 points, and by double digits for the majority of the game. Oklahoma City played an overall bad Game 2; the Thunder shot just 43% (34-79) from the field and 34.6% (9-26) from three-point land. Oklahoma City also missed 7 free throws (19-26), and that was not good for the best free throw shooting team in the NBA. Aside from Durant and Westbrook, only James Harden scored more than 7 points for the Thunder which means the rest of their role players scored a combined 16 points on an ugly 25% (5-20) shooting from the field. Those guys played as bad as they could so we expect them to respond with a much better effort in Game 3.

Oklahoma City lost for just the fourth time in these playoffs. The Thunder have lost three of the four games by 4 points or less which shows just how tough it is to beat them by a big margin. As an underdog, Oklahoma City is 3-1-1 ATS in the playoffs, and since they are off a home loss and catching points, we see some good value with them in this spot. Miami got an all-around team effort in Game 2 as four of their five starters scored 16 points or more. As a team, they shot 47.4% (36-76) from the field and 42.9% (6-14) from three-point land. The Heat also hit 22 of their 25 free throw attempts. Miami may be in for a letdown in this game as it

Game 1 went Over the total in the last 18 seconds of play when Miami made a meaningless layup and Oklahoma City hit 2 free throws to end the game. Game 2 either pushed or won by a

Oklahoma City won Game 1 105-94, but the game was a lot closer than the final score indicates. Miami actually held a 13-point lead before they wore down in the second half when the Thunder out-scored them by 18 points (58-40). The second half collapse was expected as Miami was simply in a terrible situational spot for Game 1. The Heat came off their grueling 7-game series with Boston, and they were facing a well-rested and fresher Thunder team that had six days of rest. Miami

Game 1 went Over the total in the last 18 seconds of play when Miami made a meaningless layup and Oklahoma City hit 2 free throws to end the game. That game was actually played at a much slower pace than the final score (105-94) indicates. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model totaled just 181.5 points in Game 1. The misleading final score has now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 191 for tonight's game. When playing off a loss, Miami has really slowed things down in these playoffs. In six such games, Miami and their opponent have averaged just 185 points per game. On the road, the total points are even lower with an average of just 181 points scored per game.

Overall, Miami has played terrific defense throughout the playoffs. Despite allowing Oklahoma City to score 105 points in Game 1, Miami is holding their opponents to just 89 points per game. They

The NBA Finals get underway tonight as Miami takes to the road in Oklahoma City for Game 1. Miami

Boston and Miami just played a slow, half-court grinder in Game 6 on Thursday night with the Heat winning 98-79. With this being Game 7 and a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, we expect another low-scoring, defensive battle in this game. The Over is 4-2 so far in this playoff series, but that is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 160, 165, 167.5, 170, 181.5, and 168 in the six playoff games with an average re-score of just 169 total points. These misleading final scores have now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 173 for tonight's game.

The Celtics went 3-1 against the Heat in the regular season, and a major reason for that was the play of Boston

The fact that the Over is 4-1 so far in this playoff series is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 160, 165, 167.5, 170, and 181.5 in the five playoff games with an average re-score of just 169 total points. These misleading final scores have now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 173 for tonight's game. Game 5 was a low-scoring, defensive grinder through three quarters. The teams scored 43 points or less in all three quarters before the floodgates opened in the fourth quarter when the Heat and Celtics combined to score a whopping 59 points. Neither offense played particularly well in Game 5 as Boston shot just 39% (32-82) from the field while Miami shot 40.7% (33-81) from the field.

Miami is on the brink of elimination tonight so we expect the Heat to bring their best defensive effort. Their defense has been terrific throughout the playoffs as they are allowing just 88 points per game in the playoffs. And if we eliminate the 101 and 111 points scored by Boston in Games 2 and 3, Miami would be allowing just 85 points per game. The Celtics went 3-1 against the Heat in the regular season, and a major reason for that was the play of Boston

San Antonio was on a major roll coming into Game 3. The Spurs were on an incredible 20-game SU winning streak. They were also an incredible 16-3-1 ATS in those 20 games and an even more impressive and profitable 34-3 SU (27-7-3 ATS) in their previous 37 games overall. But their impressive streak has come to a screeching halt; the Spurs have now lost three consecutive games in this series. Despite losing, San Antonio

The fact that the Over is 3-1 so far in this playoff series is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 160, 165, 167.5, and 170 in the four playoff games with an average re-score of just 166 total points. These misleading final scores have now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 172 for tonight's game. Neither offense played particularly well in Game 4 as Boston shot just 41.2% (35-85) from the field while Miami shot 42.5% (34-80) from the field. The reason that game went Over the total was the clutch three-point shooting by the teams; they combined to make 15 total three

San Antonio was on a major roll coming into Game 3. The Spurs were on an incredible 20-game SU winning streak. They were also an incredible 16-3-1 ATS in those 20 games and an even more impressive and profitable 34-3 SU (27-7-3 ATS) in their previous 37 games overall. But their impressive streak came to an end when Oklahoma City handed San Antonio a 20-point loss (102-82) in Game 3. The Spurs were expected to bounce back strong in Game 4, but they didn

The last two games in this series have been high-scoring. Game 2 ended with a 115-111 Miami win in overtime. Both teams shot the ball well in that game as they combined to hit 47% (77-164) from the field and 35.7% (15-42) from three-point land. Neither team is known for their 3-point shooting so the 15 made three

The Thunder were in an excellent bounce-back situation on Thursday night in Game 3 as they returned home down 0-2 in the series and they played an inspired game in front of their home crowd as expected. We used a selection on Oklahoma City in Game 3 and it was an easy 20-point winner (102-82). However, that blowout win now sets up a strong bounce-back situation for the Spurs as they look to regain control of this 7-game series in Game 4 tonight.

The Spurs were due for a off-game as they entered Thursday on an incredible 20-game SU winning streak. The pressure is now off and San Antonio should respond with a strong showing tonight. Quality road underdogs off a 20+ point loss in the playoffs are a long-term 60% ATS play in the NBA postseason and Class-A teams off a loss have also been a long-term winning play in Game 4 of a series. Despite the rare setback on Thursday night, the Spurs are still an incredible 20-1 SU (16-4-1 ATS) in their past 21 games and an even more impressive and profitable 34-4 SU (27-8-3 ATS) in their past 34 games overall.

The Spurs are still 4-2 SU in the six head-to-head meetings versus the Thunder this season, including 4-1 SU in the past five games in which the Spurs have held 24, 27, 10, and 22-point leads in their four wins versus Oklahoma City. In fact, the Thunder never led in two of those four losses against San Antonio this season. Going further back, the Spurs are 8-4 ATS in the past twelve meetings versus Oklahoma City, including 5-1 ATS the previous two years heading into this season. Look for San Antonio to respond with a motivated effort tonight after their embarrassing loss in Game 3 and the Spurs present excellent value at an underdog price.

10* Play SPURS (+).

Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals played out in a strange way on Wednesday night. Boston jumped out to a big 15-point lead and then Miami stormed back to take a 7-point lead early in the fourth quarter. The Celtics re-rallied and re-took the lead before the Heat came back once again. Boston was then down 3 points late before Ray Allen hit a three to send the game into overtime. Miami out-lasted Boston in the extra session to win 115-111 and take a 2-0 series lead into tonight

San Antonio took a commanding 2-0 series lead on Tuesday night with their 120-111 win over Oklahoma City. That was the Spurs 20th consecutive win, and their 34th win in their last 37 games; their last loss came way back on April 11th. Knowing that, it may seem unreasonable to lay a handful of points into this team in this game tonight. But we actually see this as the perfect time to go against the red hot San Antonio team. Despite their incredible winning streak, the Spurs have not played as dominating basketball as you would expect. In Game 1 of this series, the Spurs needed to score 39 points in the fourth quarter after trailing by 9 points going into the final 12 minutes of the game. In Game 2, the Thunder rallied from a 22-point third quarter deficit to trail by just 6 points in the fourth quarter before faltering late. In the two games combined, San Antonio has shot an incredible 50.3% (81-161) from the field while Oklahoma City has shot just 42.1% (72-171) from the field. But San Antonio has only won the games by just 3 and 9 points.

Oklahoma City is certainly on the same level as San Antonio. The Spurs got two easy opponents with issues in their first two series, but the Thunder are many notches above the Jazz and Clippers. The Spurs were fortunate to hold on for wins in their four road playoff games, but tonight

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a defensive scrum between Boston and Miami. Aside from the 60-point second quarter, the Celtics and Heat scored 41 points or less in the other three quarters. Boston

Oklahoma City controlled Game 1 for the first three quarters and they took a 9-point lead (71-62) into the final 12 minutes of play. But they failed to close things out and the Spurs went on to out-score them by 12 points (39-27) and won the game 101-98. The only way Oklahoma City can beat San Antonio is to play the way they did over the first three quarters, and that is to push the tempo. The Thunder settled for half-court offense in the fourth quarter, but that is not their game. Over the first 36 minutes of play, the Thunder won fast-break points 14-6. Their biggest edge is their speed and quickness, and if they push the ball for four full quarters tonight, then there

The Eastern Conference Finals get underway tonight as Boston plays at Miami in Game 1. The Celtics were not supposed to be in this series as the Chicago Bulls were the consensus pick to meet Miami with a chance to go to the NBA Finals. But a major injury to Derrick Rose opened the path for the Celtics, and after playing 13 games against the Hawks and Sixers, they find themselves in this series. Boston has played back-to-back grueling series, and they come into tonight with just one day of rest after winning Game 7 over Philadelphia on Saturday night. The Celtics will certainly be playing with fatigue tonight, and their best chance at staying close to Miami in this game will be to make it a half-court, defensive scrum.

Miami has plenty of rest coming into this game as they last played four days ago. This team was thrashed after going down 2-1 in their series against Indiana. But they regrouped and played three consecutive dominating games in which they averaged 107 points per game while winning each of those games by 8 points or more. But with the semi-layoff, we expect Miami to be without that motivational edge tonight which means they may get caught in playing Boston

The Western Conference has played to form as #1 San Antonio and #2 Oklahoma City meet in the Finals. The two teams have ripped through the playoffs; they are a combined 16-1 with the Spurs a perfect 8-0 and the Thunder 8-1. The two teams are also well rested with San Antonio coming into tonight

Philadelphia and Boston just played a slow, half-court grinder in Game 6 on Wednesday night with the Sixers prevailing 82-75. With this being Game 7 and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line, we expect another low-scoring, defensive battle in this game. The Over is 4-2 so far in this playoff series, but that is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 174, 171, 165, 170, 159, and 165 in the six playoff games with an average re-score of just 167 total points and a median re-score of 170. Misleading totals were also the case in the regular season when the Over went 2-1 as those games were also slow with pace re-scores of just 165, 168, and 170 points.

The Sixers and Celtics are the two least efficient offensive teams remaining the playoffs, however both teams do play solid defense and are the two most efficient defensive teams remaining in the postseason. Philadelphia is permitting just 89 points per game and only 42.7% FG (versus opponents that average 94.9 ppg and 44.5%). Boston allows just 88.6 points per game and 41.9% FG (versus opponents that average 95 ppg and 44.4%). The Celtics have been even stronger defensively at home where they allow just 84.3 points per game and only 40.6% FG this season. We expect another low-scoring game between the Sixers and Celtics in Game 7 on Saturday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Miami took advantage of a fragile Indiana team in Game 5 just we expected. The Pacers blew a golden opportunity to take a commanding 3-1 series lead in Game 4 last Sunday. They lost an 8-point halftime lead (54-46) after getting out-scored 55-39 in the second half to lose 101-93. Indiana was certain to play with a hangover in Miami in Game 5, and they did as they lost by 32 points after shooting a terrible 33.7% (30-89) from the field and 28.6% (6-21) from three-point land. It also didn

The fact that the Over is 4-1 so far in this playoff series is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 174, 171, 165, 170, and 159 in the five playoff games with an average re-score of just 168 total points and a median re-score of 170. Misleading totals were also the case in the regular season when the Over went 2-1 as those games were also slow with pace re-scores of just 165, 168, and 170 points.

These misleading final scores have now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 169.5 for tonight's game. The oddsmakers have now set the highest total of this playoff series tonight, despite the fact that Game 5 had the slowest pace of play so far. Both teams shot well above their normal percentages from the field, including Philadelphia who hit 47% and the Celtics who made 52% of their shots and scored 101 points. These weak defensive efforts by both teams should lead to more focus on defense tonight in Game 6.

These are the two least efficient offensive teams remaining the playoffs, however both teams do play solid defense and are the two most efficient defensive teams remaining in the postseason. The Celtics allow just 88.7 points per game and 41.8% FG (versus opponents that average 95.1 ppg and 44.4%). Philadelphia is permitting just 89.2 points per game and only 42.9% FG (versus opponents that average 94.9 ppg and 44.5%). The Sixers have been even stronger defensively at home where they allow just 85.7 points per game and only 41.5% FG this season.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Indiana blew a golden opportunity to take a commanding 3-1 series lead on Sunday afternoon. The Pacers took an 8-point lead (54-46) into halftime, but they played a terrible second half and lost 101-93. That loss was a major blow to the inexperienced Pacers team, especially since that game was on their home court. We expect Indiana to have a hangover in tonight

Los Angeles blew a golden opportunity to tie this series up at 2 games apiece on Saturday night. The Lakers had a 10-point lead at the half, and they took a 9-point lead into the fourth quarter. But their defense failed them over the final 12 minutes of the game as they allowed Oklahoma City to score 32 points. And when the Lakers only scored 20 points, the Thunder walked out of Los Angeles with a 103-100 win in Game 4. For the game, Oklahoma City shot 49.4% (38-77) from the field and 37.5% (6-16) from three-point land. The Lakers also sent them to the free throw line 25 times, and the Thunder hit 21 of those attempts. In order for Los Angeles to avoid a season-ending loss tonight, their defense must step-up and play better, and we

The Spurs overcame a 24-point deficit in the first half on Saturday and outscored the Clippers 80-46 in the final two-and-half quarters for a 96-86 win. It was the Spurs 17th straight victory (17-0 SU and 15-1-1 ATS) with that only non-cover actually being the Spurs' Game 4 win at Utah in the last round in which San Antonio only won by 6 points as a -7.5 point favorite.

The Spurs now hold a 3-0 lead in this series and the Clippers know their season is finished as teams down 0-3 are normally swept. This often leads to a more open style of play in Game 4 and both teams are playing without rest tonight, so fatigue might also lead to weaker defense and a more lackadaisical style this evening.

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league as the Spurs average 103 points per game and 48% FG, while the Clippers average 97 ppg and 46% FG this season. The three regular season meetings all went Over the total as did Game 1 of this playoff series which totaled 200 points. Game 2 totaled 193 points, but then Game 3 yesterday totaled just 182 points. This has now caused the oddsmakers to lower the total in Game 4 tonight which has created nice line value.

Despite the low score yesterday, the pace was still rather fast with my mathematical re-scoring pace model totaling 194.5 points. The average re-score of the six meetings this season has been 194 with a median re-score of 194.5. The Over was 4-1 in the first five meetings before yesterday with 205, 190, 228, 200, and 193 points scored in regulation time in each game for an average score of 203 points with a median score of 200 total points.

10* Play OVER the total.

A very unusual scheduling situation in Game 4 tonight as these teams have to play without rest after just playing Game 3 last night. The reason is because the L.A. Clippers and Los Angeles Kings are also hosting playoff games this weekend. In fact, there will be four basketball and hockey playoff games played in the Forum on Saturday and Sunday.

This quick turnaround and no-rest situation should favor the younger and more athletic Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City will also be extra focused after suffering their first playoff loss of the season last night. The Thunder are still 6-1 SU in the postseason, so they present excellent value in a straight-up win situation this evening.

The Lakers shot an incredible 41-for-42 (98%) from the free throw line last night and still only won by 3 points. This was second best free throw shooting percentage in NBA Playoff history (minimum 30 attempts) and it is unlikely to happen again tonight. Overall, Oklahoma City has dominated the head-to-head meetings this year and their only other loss versus the Lakers was a double-overtime defeat on April 22nd in which the Thunder blew an 18-point lead, including a 16-point lead entering the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City defeated the Lakers in the other two regular season meetings by 15 and 9 points in which they held 16 and 19 point leads. The Thunder also easily won Game 1 last Monday by 29 points and held a 35-point lead.

The fact that the past two games have been close should ensure a very focused effort by the Thunder in Game 4 tonight and the no-rest situation will favor the more athletic and talented Oklahoma City squad.

10* Play THUNDER.

Boston bounced back strong as expected in Game 3 the other night; the Celtics played a perfect game in their 107-91 win over Philadelphia. The Celtics shot an incredible 51.9% (40-77) from the field and 45.5% (5-11) from three-point land. They also knocked down 22 of their 28 free throw attempts. Boston played an all around game, but we do not expect them to repeat that effort tonight, especially against the strong Philadelphia defense. The 107 points allowed by the Sixers

Miami and Indiana both played terrible offense in Game 2 on Tuesday night. The Heat scored just 75 points on 34.6% (27-78) shooting from the field and 6.2% (1-16) shooting from three-point land. The Pacers scored just 78 points on 37.8% (28-74) shooting from the field and 20% (3-15) from three-point land. They also combined to miss 17 free throws in that game. We can

Philadelphia came through for us in Game 2 with their 82-81 win as 4