This has been a very low-scoring series with an average score of just 174½ points in the eight games when the teams played their starters (excludes the April 14th meeting) and overall five of the eight games have totaled 174 or less.

The Under was 7-1 in the first eight games this season, but Game 5 on Wednesday night produced a rare Over with a final score of 106-91. The final was misleading as the pace of play was still very slow and my re-scoring pace model totaled just 171 points. Both teams shot well above their expected percentages from the field as Miami was 31-for-65 (48% FG), while Atlanta was 34-for-70 (49% FG). Look for both defenses to have more focused efforts today.

The most recent game in Miami (Game 4) was especially low-scoring as the teams combined for a playoff low 152 total points. There was nothing misleading about the final score as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 167 with my re-scoring percentage model totaling only 166 points.

Miami

The first two games in this series both went Over the total, but the past three games have been much lower scoring with a perfect 3-0 Under run and final scores of just 169, 177, and 165 total points.

The high-scoring result in the first two games was misleading as Game 1 went Over the total because the Rockets turned the game into a rout, but the pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 178½ points. Both teams shot well above their normal percentages in Game 2, however the pace of play was once again slow with my re-scoring model totaling just 183 points.

The pace has been even slower as the series has progressed with Games 3-5 totaling just 174, 181½, and 176 based on my re-scoring pace model with my re-scoring percentage model totaling just 175, 181, and 168 total points.

The three regular season meetings all went Over the total, but it was also misleading. The first game went Over only because of overtime and totaled just 180 total points at the end of regulation with my mathematical re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 175 and 175½. The final regular season meeting on April 5th totaled 190 on the scoreboard, but the pace of the game was slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 177.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league and both prefer to play a slow-down, half-court style. The Rockets have been even stronger defensively at home this season, where they permit just 91 points per game, compared to allowing 98 ppg on the road, and the Blazers have been weaker offensively on the road where they average just 95 points per game, compared to 103 ppg at home.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

New Orleans almost blew an 11-point lead in Game 3 on Saturday, but held on for a narrow 95-93 home win. The Hornets then came out extremely flat in Game 4 on Monday night and they were embarrassed in a 121-63 home loss which ties the biggest loss in NBA playoff history.

Denver is obviously the better team in this series, but the oddsmakers and public have drastically overreacted to Monday

Game 3 easily went Under the total by 36 points with a final score of just 88-67, but Game 4 barely went Over by a single point and totaled 189.

Game 1 totaled 202 points, however both teams shot well above their normal percentages from the field as the Mavericks shot 54% FG and San Antonio hit 47% FG, including a ridiculous 11-for-14 (79%) from three-point range. The pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 180½ points and my re-scoring percentage model tallying just 181 points.

A similar situation occurred in Game 2 as the final score totaled 189 points, but San Antonio once again shot well above their expected percentage (53% FG) and both teams were a combined 85% from the free throw line. My re-scoring percentage model totaled just 184 points which is the accurate score had each team shot their normal percentages, and the pace was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 185 points.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Magic have obviously underperformed in this series, going 0-4 ATS so far, but this has been largely due to an extreme discrepancy from the three-point line. Orlando has been an excellent 3-point shooting team this season as they average 37.8% (versus opponents that allow just 36.7%), but they have hit just 25-of-81 (30.9%) in the playoffs. This is unlikely to continue, especially since the Sixers have only a slightly above average perimeter defense that has allowed 36.4% this season (versus opponents that average 36.9%).

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been red-hot from beyond the arc, hitting 24-of-57 (42.1%) from three-point range which is highly unlikely to continue since Philadelphia has been one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league this season, averaging just 32.3% (versus opponents that allow 36.6%).

Orlando blew 18-point leads in both home games this season and also had an 11-point lead in Game 4 on Sunday. Philadelphia

The Under is 3-1 in this series, yet the oddsmakers have only lowered the total two points from Game 1. The first game went Over in a very misleading 100-98 final as Orlando blew an 18-point lead and allowed Philadelphia to shoot a ridiculous 58% from beyond the arc. The pace of play was slow and my re-scoring pace model totaled just 180 points and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 181½.

Game 2 totaled just 183 points with my re-scoring models totaling 187½ and 184½. Game 3 totaled 190 points, but the pace was slow with my re-scoring models totaling 181½ and 178. Game 4 was extremely low-scoring with just 165 total points and it was legitimate as my re-scoring models totaled 170½ and 171½.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The four playoff games have averaged just 204.3 points per game with a median score of only 207.5 ppg. My re-scoring pace model has totaled 209, 205, 199, and 197 in the four games for an average score of just 202.5 points per game, while my re-scoring percentage model has totaled only 210.5, 198.5, 204, and 200.5 in each game for an average score of just 203.4 ppg.

The Lakers are known for their strong offense, but Los Angeles is also one of the top defensive teams in the league and they have been strong in the past two games, holding a solid Utah offense to just 88 and 94 points on their strong home court.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Hawks dominated Miami in Game 1 with an easy 90-64 home win, but Atlanta then suffered a letdown in Game 2 and lost outright by 15 points. Miami was in an excellent bounce-back situation in that Game 2 as teams coming off blowout losses in the playoffs usually respond with a solid effort. The Heat also shot a ridiculous 15-for-26 (58%) from three-point range, including a remarkable 12-for-19 (63%) by Dwyane Wade and Daequan Cook combined.

Miami repeated their above average shooting again in Game 3 as they hit 12-for-23 (52%) from three-point range and blew out the Hawks 107-78. It is unlikely that Miami can continue to shoot above 50% from beyond the arc as the Hawks have an above average three-point defense that allows just 35.7% this season (versus opponents that average 36.8%), while Miami has been a below average shooting squad from beyond the arc this season, averaging just 36.0% (versus opponents that allow 36.5% overall).

Atlanta is the better team in this series and they should bounce-back after two straight losses tonight. The Hawks fit a solid 37-13 ATS Game 4 situation and also qualify in a 56-30 ATS situation which plays on teams coming off a 20+ point blowout loss. The Hawks thoroughly outplayed the Heat in 3 of the first 4 meetings this season, excluding the April 14th game in which both squads rested their starters. Atlanta held 20, 14, and 27-point leads in those three wins.

Play HAWKS (+) as a 1½ unit play.

The first two games in this series both went Over the total, but things returned to normal in Game 3 with a low-scoring 86-83 Houston win. There was nothing misleading about the score as the pace was slow with my re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 174 and 175 points.

The high-scoring result in the first two games was misleading as Game 1 went Over the total because the Rockets turned the game into a rout, but the pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 178½ points. Both teams shot well above their normal percentages in Game 2, however the pace of play was once again slow with my re-scoring model totaling just 183 points.

Playoff games have a tendency to be lower scoring and that should be the case tonight as these are still two of the best defensive teams in the league. Houston allows just 94.3 points per game this season (versus opponents that average 100.1 ppg), while Portland also permits just 94.3 points per game (versus opponents that average 100.0 ppg). The Rockets have been even stronger defensively at home this season, where they permit just 90.9 points per game, compared to allowing 97.6 ppg on the road, and the Blazers have been weaker offensively on the road where they average just 94.8 points per game, compared to 103.3 ppg at home.

The three regular season meetings have also helped to create line value as the 3-0 Over mark was misleading. The first meeting went Over only because of overtime and totaled just 180 total points at the end of regulation with my mathematical re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 175 and 175½. The final meeting on April 5th was also misleading as the game totaled 190 on the scoreboard, but the pace of the game was slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 177.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Magic have underperformed so far in this playoff series and they now face a 2-1 deficit. Orlando has blown 18-point leads in two different games and they are the superior team in this series. They should bounce-back with a solid effort tonight as they fit an excellent 65-32 ATS playoff situation which plays on quality teams coming off a SU loss. Orlando is also 41-17 ATS in all games after a SU loss the past two seasons.

The Magic remain the best pointspread team in the league during the past two seasons under head coach Stan Van Gundy with a fantastic 106-69 ATS record in all games, including 75-53 ATS as a favorite. Van Gundy has been particularly strong on the road with a 56-32 ATS record as the head coach of Orlando, including 27-15 ATS away from home this season.

Play MAGIC (-) as a 1 unit play.

Historically, teams down 0-3 in a best-of-seven playoff series get swept, however the oddsmakers have vastly inflated this line based on that situation and we now get line value with the Pistons. My power ratings favor Cleveland by just 5½ points in this game, so based on line value, the Pistons have a 62% chance of covering this line.

Teams down 0-3 are just 36% ATS in playoff games, however home underdog in that situation are actually a winning proposition (54% ATS), so the Pistons should put forth a solid effort today. It is also unlikely that Cleveland will cover this inflated line as only 2 of the 51 four-game sweeps in playoff history has winning team won all four games by double-digit margins.

Play PISTONS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Bulls pulled the upset in Game 1 as an 8½-point underdog and they covered from start to finish as they never trailed by more than five points the entire day. The Bulls also covered in a narrow 118-115 loss in Game 2, but they came out flat in Game 3 and were embarrassed at home on Friday night in a 21-point loss.

Teams usually bounce-back after a blowout loss in the playoffs and the Bulls fit a solid 56-30 ATS situation which plays on teams coming off a 20+ point blowout loss. Chicago became a better team in late February after they acquired John Salmons and Brad Miller from the Kings. Salmons averages more than 36 minutes per game and finished the regular season ranked second in scoring (17.6 ppg), while Brad Miller averages more than 27 minutes per game and is fifth on the team in scoring (11.8 ppg). The Bulls were just 4-7 SU in their first eleven games with the new lineup, but have since gone 13-6 SU in their past nineteen games. The arrival of the new players helped offset the loss of forward Loul Deng (13.8 ppg) who was injured on February 28th and is now out for the rest of the season.

While the Bulls are improving, the Celtics have become weaker without future Hall of Fame forward Kevin Garnett in the lineup. Boston is a respectable 20-8 SU in all games without Garnett this season, compared to 44-13 SU with him in the lineup, but Boston only wins by an average of +4.0 points per game without the future Hall of Fame member, compared to a +9.1 point average margin of victory with Garnett. The difference is on defense as Boston has permitted only 91 points per game with KG, compared to 100 ppg without him.

Play BULLS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Lakers as they should bounce back after their upset loss in Game 3. We used the Jazz as a Best Bet in that game as Utah qualified in a solid rebound situation after their back-to-back losses at Los Angeles, but Utah was still fortunate to win the game as they trailed by 13 points, including an 8-point deficit entering the fourth quarter, before rallying for a narrow 88-86 win.

Los Angeles is still the best team in the Western Conference and quality teams usually bounce back after a straight-up loss and the Lakers fit a 36-13 ATS Class-A situation. Los Angeles is 11-5 SU in all games versus Utah the past two seasons and the Lakers have the best road record in the NBA which will help negate Utah

The Hawks dominated Miami in Game 1 with an easy 90-64 home win, but Atlanta then suffered a letdown in Game 2 and lost outright by 15 points. Miami was in an excellent bounce-back situation in that Game 2 as teams coming off blowout losses in the playoffs usually respond with a solid effort. The Heat also shot a ridiculous 15-for-26 (58%) from three-point range, including a remarkable 12-for-19 (63%) by Dwyane Wade and Daequan Cook combined. It is unlikely that those results will be repeated tonight, especially since the Hawks have an above average three-point defense that allows just 35.4% this season (versus opponents that average 36.7%), while Miami has been a below average shooting squad from beyond the arc this season, averaging just 35.8% (versus opponents that allow 36.5% overall).

The situation now favors Atlanta to bounce-back as the better team normally wins Game 3 when a series in tied 1-1 and the Hawks fit a solid 52-33 ATS situation based on that premise. Despite their letdown in Game 2, the Hawks thoroughly outplayed the Heat in three of the other four meetings this season, excluding the April 14th game in which both squads rested their starters. Atlanta held 20, 14, and 27-point leads in those other three wins and only trailed by more than 2 points in one of the three games.

Play HAWKS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The first two games in this series have both gone Over the total, but things normally reverse in Game 3 and today

The first two games in this series have both gone Over the total, but things normally reverse in Game 3 and tonight

The Magic struggled down the stretch of the regular season, but it was mainly due to the fact that they clinched their division title early and were locked into the #3 seed. Orlando also rested numerous starters and other key players during the final week. Orlando started slowly in Game 1 last Sunday, but then exploded to an 18-point lead in the second-half, before completely collapsing in the fourth quarter and losing the game.

Orlando bounced back with a win in Game 2 on Wednesday, but they once again allowed a backdoor cover as Orlando had another 18 point lead before winning by just nine points. A backdoor cover is less likely by Philadelphia tonight as the line is now much lower and the Magic are in basically a straight-up win situation. Orlando is well aware that they must win a road game to win this series and the Magic qualify in a solid 52-32 ATS situation which plays on the better team when a series in tied 1-1.

The Magic remain the best pointspread team in the league during the past two seasons under head coach Stan Van Gundy with a fantastic 106-68 ATS record in all games, including 75-52 ATS as a favorite. Van Gundy has been particularly strong on the road with a 56-31 ATS record as the head coach of Orlando, including 27-14 ATS away from home this season.

Play MAGIC (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Jazz lost both games in Los Angeles as expected, but they should perform better on their strong home court tonight. Over the past decade, the Jazz have exhibited the most extreme home/road dichotomy in the league as opponents often struggle in the thin air and altitude of Salt Lake City. Utah is 33-8 SU at home this season where they average 105.9 points per game and shoot 47.3% from the field. The Jazz also fit a solid 64-36 ATS bounce-back situation tonight which plays on quality teams that enter off exactly two playoffs losses in a row.

This strong home court edge was evident earlier this season when the Lakers lost outright in their only trip to Utah, 113-109, on February 11th. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in all five meetings this season and home court was also strong in last year

The first two games of this series have both gone Over the total, however the pace of play has not been that fast and the recent results have now created solid line value with the Under tonight as the oddsmakers have inflated this O/U line nearly three points higher than Game 1. This game also fits a solid 60% Game 3 Under situation.

Game 1 totaled 202 points, however both teams shot well above their normal percentages from the field as the Mavericks shot 54% FG and San Antonio hit 47% FG, including a ridiculous 11-for-14 (79%) from three-point range. The pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 180½ points and my re-scoring percentage model tallying just 181 points.

A similar situation occurred in Game 2 as the final score totaled 189 points, but San Antonio once again shot well above their expected percentage (53% FG) and both teams were a combined 85% from the free throw line. My re-scoring percentage model totaled just 184 points which is the accurate score had each team shot their normal percentages, and the pace was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 185 points.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

San Antonio lost Game 1 outright as a 4-point home favorite, but they did bounce back with a solid effort in Game 2; however the situation now favors the Mavericks as they head back to Dallas and their strong home court where they stand 32-9 SU this season and have averaged 106.2 points per game and shot 47.9% from the field.

Despite the lower seed, these are two equal teams, especially with Josh Howard healthy for Dallas and Manu Ginobili out of the lineup for the Spurs. Before Monday

This is not your typical #2 versus #7 playoff matchup as the Nuggets were just 5 games ahead of the Hornets during the 82-game regular season and split the four head-to-head meetings (2-2 SU/ATS). Denver was in a solid situation in Game 1 as Class-A home favorites usually perform well, but the edge goes to quality underdogs in Game 2 and the Hornets fit a solid 36-14 ATS situation based on that premise.

New Orleans also fits a strong 54-28 ATS situation after their embarrassing 29-point blowout loss on Sunday. Denver

One of the best plays in the NBA playoffs over the past two decades has been playing a team coming off an embarrassing loss as that team usually makes corrections and refocuses, while their opponent often comes in overconfident. Another reason why the situation works is because of line value as the oddsmakers are less likely to adjust the pointspread, compared to the normal 1-2 point deduction due to the

Utah is much better than your normal #8 seed as the Jazz were still 48-34 SU in the regular season, despite facing numerous injuries. Utah was in a difficult spot in Game 1 as Class-A home teams such as Los Angeles historically dominate the first game and the Lakers qualified in a strong 43-16 ATS situation based on that premise. The situation usually reverses in Game 2, especially if the underdog was blown out, and the Jazz now fit a solid 55-32 ATS bounce-back situation. Utah also fits a 63% situation which plays on quality teams off a SU loss.

The Lakers have been the best team in the conference this season, but they have shown the tendency to letdown as a big home favorite. The Lakers might also struggle to focus for this game after now beating the Jazz twice at home within the past week.

Play JAZZ (+) as a 1 unit play.

Game 1 went Over the total because the Rockets turned the game into a rout, but the pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 178½ points. Playoff games have a tendency to be lower scoring and that should be the case tonight as these are still two of the best defensive teams in the league. Houston allowed just 94.4 points per game in the regular season (versus opponents that average 100.2 ppg), while Portland permitted just 94.1 points per game (versus opponents that average 100.1 ppg).

The three regular meetings have also helped to create line value as the 3-0 Over mark was misleading. The first meeting went Over only because of overtime and totaled just 180 total points at the end of regulation with my mathematical re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 175 and 175½. The final meeting on April 5th was also misleading as the game totaled 190 on the scoreboard, but the pace of the game was slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 177.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

Detroit was in a difficult spot in Game 1 as Class-A home teams such as Cleveland historically dominate the first game and they qualified in a strong 42-16 ATS situation based on that premise. The situation usually reverses in Game 2, especially if the underdog was blown out, and the Pistons now fit a solid 55-32 ATS bounce-back situation.

Detroit is still a veteran team that has made the conference finals for six straight seasons and they should be able to keep the game close tonight. The posted Over/Under is just 177½ which indicates a low-scoring game which also favors the double-digit underdog, plus the Pistons are 13-4 ATS the last six seasons as a road underdog of 7 points or more, including 7-3 ATS this season.

Play PISTONS (+) as a 1 unit play.

San Antonio lost Game 1 outright as a 4-point home favorite and now the line has been inflated two points higher as the oddsmaker factor in the perceived

The Nuggets usually play an uptempo style, but playoff games have a tendency to be lower scoring as the pace usually slows down and teams focus more on defense. This has been extremely evident the past four seasons as the Nuggets are now an incredible 17-2 Under in all playoff games.

The Hornets prefer a slow-down, half-court style and they will look to force the tempo tonight. The Over/Under was 2-2 in the four regular season meetings, but the pace of play in those games was slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 189½, 185, 191½, and 191 in the four games for an average score of only 189 points per game. The teams also shot higher than their expected percentages in the regular season meetings as my re-scoring percentage model totaled just 187½, 193, 176, and 189 points for an average of just 186½ per game. Tonight

Check back for an additional nighttime NBA report after 3 pm ET.

The Lakers are easily the best team in the Western Conference and they have been particularly strong at home this season with a 36-5 SU record. The Lakers average home win margin is only +10.1 points per game, but this is because they often let up in the second half against inferior teams. This is less likely to occur today as the Lakers will want to send a message in Game 1 of this potential seven-game series. Class-A home favorites have also been a strong play historically in the NBA playoffs in Game 1 and the Lakers fit a solid 43-16 ATS situation based on that premise which is the same situation that produced an easy 18-point winner with Cleveland on Saturday.

Los Angeles just played the Jazz on Tuesday and won by 13 points, even though the game had no meaning to the Lakers as they had already clinched the #1 seed in the West and could not catch Cleveland for the overall home court edge. The Lakers also won by 13 points in the other home game on January 2nd in which they never trailed and actually led by as many as 20 points in the game.

Los Angeles did lose the one road game at Utah, but it was a difficult scheduling situation as the Lakers were traveling without rest and had to play in the thin air and altitude. Utah shot well above their normal percentage from the field as they hit 58.6% FG, including 66% from two-point range which was largely due to the Lakers tired defense. Utah is also a much stronger team at home as they were 33-8 SU at home, compared to just 15-26 SU on the road. Utah is a weaker offensive team on the road where they average just 46% FG, compared to 49% FG at home.

The Lakers won this playoff series last year which included double-digit SU home wins in both Games 1 & 2. Los Angeles is now a stronger team with Andrew Bynum back in the lineup, while the Jazz are a weaker team without Mehmet Okur who is doubtful today due to a hamstring injury. Okur is second on the team in scoring (17.0 ppg) and third in both rebounding (7.7 rpg) and blocks (53).

Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

Playoff games have a tendency to be lower scoring and that will be the case tonight as these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Houston has allowed just 94.4 points per game this season (versus opponents that average 100.2 ppg), while Portland has permitted just 94.1 points per game (versus opponents that average 100.1 ppg). Below offensive units score below the league average, so the defenses hold the edges tonight.

Both teams also prefer a slow-down, half-court style and this game qualifies in a solid 38-16 Game 1 situation which occurs when two Class-A teams meet in the playoffs. The first game is usually lower scoring as both teams start a bit more conservative and focus on defense. The three regular meetings have also helped to create line value as the 3-0 Over mark was misleading. The first meeting went Over only because of overtime and totaled just 180 total points at the end of regulation with my mathematical re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 175 and 175½. The most recent meeting on April 5th was also misleading as the game totaled 190 on the scoreboard, but the pace of the game was slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 177.

Both teams enter the playoffs in excellent current form on defense and they have played low-scoring games recently versus other playoff teams. The Rockets finished the regular season with games versus New Orleans and Dallas that totaled just 152 and 179 points, while Portland held the Nuggets to just 76 points in their regular season finale and the game totaled just 180 points.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Cavaliers (66-16 SU) have the best record in the entire league, while Detroit (39-43 SU) is the worst team in the playoffs and the only squad with a losing record this season. Class-A home favorites have historically been a strong play in Game 1 against inferior opponents and the Cavaliers fit a solid 42-16 ATS situation based on that premise.

The Cavaliers have been exceptionally strong at home this season with a 39-1 SU record before they rested their starters in the season finale versus Philadelphia. Cleveland is 27-14 ATS at home and they have won their home games by an average margin of +14.3 points game and they

Both teams can still improve their playoff positioning as Denver is trying to lock up the #2 seed, while Portland is trying to clinch home court advantage in the first round, so both will have defensive focus tonight. This game also fits a solid 40-19 Under situation which predicts low scoring games when both clubs are coming off easy blowout wins in their previous game. All 3 head-to-head meetings have totaled 196 or less this season with an average score of just 191½ per game with my re-scoring pace model and percentage models averaging just 190½ points per game.

Portland prefers a half-court style and they should be able to dictate their preferred tempo at home tonight where they stand a fantastic 33-7 SU, compared to just 20-21 SU on the road. Portland has been playing excellent defense this month as the Blazers have allowed just 93, 83, 98, 72, and 83 points in their past five games which is an average of just 85.8 points per game allowed.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Lakers have clinched the #1 seed in the Western Conference playoffs and they have nothing to play for tonight in their regular season finale as the Cavaliers clinched home court edge in the NBA Finals last night. The Lakers are expected to play their starters, but it is unlikely that head coach Phil Jackson will push the minutes on key players such as Kobe Bryant.

Los Angeles does have a revenge motive after losing at Utah on February 11th and the Lakers will likely face the Jazz in the first round of the playoff, so look for Los Angeles to send a strong defensive message tonight. The previous meeting totaled 222 points, but Utah shot well above their normal percentage from the field as they hit 58.6% FG, including 66% from two-point range. The Lakers struggled as they were playing without rest in the thin air and altitude.

Utah will be weaker offensively tonight as they are now playing without rest and they average just 46% FG on the road this season (compared to 49% FG at home). The Jazz have struggled away from home with a 15-25 SU mark (compared to 33-8 SU at home) and the Jazz have not played well in the second of back-to-back nights this season.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Warriors 118-108 win at Utah on Saturday night is less impressive considering the Jazz are on an ice cold 1-6 SU run in their past seven games and just 1-9 ATS in their past ten overall. Golden State remains decimated by injuries with Jamal Crawford downgraded to doubtful tonight and Stephen Jackson, Monta Ellis, and Corey Maggette already out for the rest of the season.

The Warriors received a strong effort from their youngsters on Saturday, but that should serve as a wakeup call for the veteran Spurs tonight and Golden State now fits a negative 48-94 ATS home letdown situation after their SU road underdog win at Utah.

The Spurs are still fighting for playoff positioning and the division title, plus they expect to get Tim Duncan back in the lineup tonight after he sat out last night in Sacramento for rest. San Antonio lackluster first-half effort versus the Kings last night (allowed 61 points) should lead to better focus tonight and the Spurs will build on the momentum from their strong second-half defensive performance which held the Kings to just 31 points.

Play SPURS (-) as a 1 unit play.

On paper this game is a complete mismatch, however it is hard to imagine the Spurs will be fully focused. San Antonio is coming off a big home win versus Utah on Friday and the Spurs have another road game on deck tomorrow night. San Antonio is a veteran team that is also looking to rest key players whenever possible.

Sacramento was covering for most of the game as an 11-point home underdog versus Houston on Thursday night before collapsing in the fourth quarter. The Kings carried that letdown into Friday night

This is a quick home-home revenge game for the Hornets as they just lost at Dallas on Friday night. The Mavericks are coming off three straight home wins versus the Suns, Jazz, and Hornets. Dallas is now due for a letdown and they fit a negative 38-66 ATS situation which plays against road teams off a 3+ SU/ATS run.

The Mavericks have been strong at home this season with a 30-9 SU record, but Dallas is just 18-22 SU on the road which includes a 104-88 loss at New Orleans on March 5th. Despite losing on Friday, the Hornets have dominated the Mavericks the past two seasons with a 4-1 SU record in the past five head-to-head meetings with wins by 16, 7, 5, and 13 point margins.

Play HORNETS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Magic will be in a focused mood tonight after an embarrassing home loss last night versus New York as an 11-point favorite. The Magic are still battling Boston for the #2 seed in the Eastern conference and home court advantage in a likely second round matchup.

Orlando head coach Stan Van Gundy was openly critical of his team

We used the Lakers as a Best Bet winner last night as they were in a solid home revenge situation against a Denver squad that was traveling without rest. The situation now works against the Lakers on Friday night as Los Angeles is now the team traveling without rest and the Lakers might be a bit flat after their big national TV win.

Portland has one of the strongest home courts in the league as the Blazers are a young, but talented team that plays much better at home where they stand 31-7 SU and 23-14 ATS with an average win by +9.4 points per game. Portland enters in excellent current form tonight as they are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in their past seven games which includes a 21-point home win versus Utah last week and a 12-point road win at San Antonio on Wednesday.

The Trail Blazers fit a solid 88-57 ATS momentum situation and the home team has dominated this head-to-head series with a current 14-1 SU run the past four years, including a perfect 7-0 SU home record the past two seasons, including the Blazers easy 111-94 win versus the Lakers on March 9th.

Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Lakers are the best team in the NBA and they have already clinched the #1 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, however the Lakers are battling Cleveland for home court edge in the NBA Finals and the Lakers are still playing hard as evident by their 4-0 SU record this month.

Los Angeles will be especially focused tonight as they have a major revenge motive after an embarrassing 90-79 road loss at Denver on February 27th. It was the Lakers worst offensive performance of the season as they shot just 29.8% from the field and a miserable 2-for-21 (9.5%) from three-point range. The Lakers were a tired team in that game as they were coming off a high-scoring shootout win versus Phoenix, 132-106, the previous night and had to travel without rest and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver.

Los Angeles now qualifies in a strong 73-46 ATS revenge situation and they also fit a solid 114-72 ATS momentum situation after their easy 122-104 win versus Sacramento on Tuesday. The Lakers won the first two meetings versus Denver this season and Los Angeles was a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in all seven games last season, including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS sweep in the first round of the playoffs. Los Angeles is 5-0 SU/ATS in all home games versus Denver the past two seasons with easy wins by 14, 15, 14, 17, and 28 point margins.

Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

Utah has the strongest home court edge in the NBA, but the Jazz have been a much weaker team on the road where they stand just 15-23 SU this season, compared to 32-7 SU in Salt Lake City.

Dallas has also exhibited a large home/road dichotomy this season with a 28-9 SU home record, compared to the Maverick