Toronto got embarrassed by Cleveland in Game 1 on Tuesday night; the Raptors lost by 31 points (115-84).  Toronto hung tough in the first quarter as they only trailed by 5 points after the first 12 minutes of the game.  But over the final three quarters, the Raptors got out-scored 82-56 by the Cavaliers.  Toronto beat Cleveland in two of three regular season meetings, so the Raptors are quite capable of beating Cleveland even though it didn’t look like it in Game 1.  Toronto’s offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 42.1% (32-76) from the field and 20.8% (5-24) from three-point land.  Toronto’s offense scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland’s defense this season; that ranked them 5th against any opponent.  So the Raptors’ offense can easily play much better offense tonight.  Kyle Lowry averaged 31 points per game against Cleveland in the regular season, the most he scored against any Eastern Conference opponent.  But he only scored 8 points on 28.6% (4-14) shooting from the field, including 0-7 from three-point land. 

Cleveland has yet to lose a game in the playoffs; they are now 9-0 after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta and winning Game 1 of this series.  However, the Cavaliers have not been as dominant as their 9-0 record indicates.  Six of those nine games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play, so the games were highly competitive.  Cleveland shot well above normal from three-point land as they hit 46.2% from beyond the arc in their first eight games of the playoffs.  The Cavaliers were too reliant on shooting three’s as 42.8% of their overall shots came from beyond the arc.  In Game 1, Cleveland shot 35% (7-20) from three, but they shot 55.4% (41-74) from the field.  Cleveland went into their last game off 8 full days of rest, and after a stellar performance with a lengthy layoff, we expect major regression tonight.  We’ll take the generous points with the Raptors in Game 2 on Thursday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Oklahoma City stole Game 1 on Monday night after dominating the second half.  The Thunder out-scored the Warriors 61-42 which was the complete opposite of the first half when Golden State out-scored Oklahoma City 60-47.  Overall, Oklahoma City scored 108 points on just 43.8% (39-89) shooting from the field.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to score 53 of the 108 total points scored, so with a complete team effort tonight, the Thunder’s offense will put more points on the scoreboard.  Oklahoma City was averaging 111.9 points per 100 possessions on the road in the playoffs going into Game 1, and they had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense.  The Thunder also implemented a big lineup versus the Spurs in their last series, and it continued to work in Game 1 of this series.

Golden State was terrific on offense in the first half, but they were terrible over the final two quarters.  Overall, the Warriors scored 102 points on 44% (40-91) shooting from the field.  Golden State did make 11 three-point shots, but they needed 30 attempts to do so.  The Warriors only shot 64.7% (11-17) from the free throw line as well.  Despite the horrendous offensive performance, Golden State was still able to score more than 100 points in the game.  Off that poor loss, we fully expect the Warriors to bounce back with a strong performance, and that means their offense will be leading the way.  Neither team shot all that well in Game 1, but they still managed to scored 210 total points.  The pace was fast as my re-scoring model totaled 228.5 in Game 1.  With normal shooting percentages, we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Warriors in Game 2 tonight.

10* Play OVER the total.

Toronto needed seven games to beat Miami in their last series, so the Raptors may be a little gassed to start this series.  But often times, teams in the Raptors’ situation play off momentum and shock their opponent who takes them lightly in the first game.  Toronto beat Cleveland in two of three regular season meetings, so there’s no lack of confidence either.  The Raptors have the best second unit remaining in the playoffs, so they’ll have no drop-off when their starters are getting rest.  That will be an important factor in this series against Cleveland, especially since the Cavaliers’ bench is older and slower at every position.  Toronto’s offense scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland’s defense this season; that ranked them 5th against any opponent.  Kyle Lowry averaged 31 points per game against Cleveland, the most he scored against any Eastern Conference opponent.  Toronto has some very favorable offensive match-ups in this series.

Cleveland has yet to lose a game in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta.  However, the Cavaliers were not as dominant as their 8-0 SU record indicates.  Six of those eight games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  Cleveland also shot well above normal from three-point land as they hit 46.2% from beyond the arc.  The Cavaliers were too reliant on shooting three’s as 42.8% of their overall shots came from beyond the arc.  Cleveland has only averaged 30.8 points per game inside the paint, ranking them dead last in the playoffs in that particular category.  Cleveland hasn’t played a game in 8 full days, so it might take time for the Cavaliers to get back into game rhythm.  This line is over-inflated based on recent results as Cleveland was just +2.5 points better than Toronto in all games this season.  The line value is with the Raptors in Game 1 tonight.

9* Play RAPTORS (+).

Oklahoma City and Golden State have had plenty of time to prepare for Game 1 tonight, so we expect both teams to bring solid efforts.  The Thunder upset San Antonio in their last series, and they did so by playing a much different lineup.  Oklahoma City was very successful while implementing a big lineup versus the Spurs’ ‘small ball’ style.  It worked to perfection for the Thunder as they dominated the boards and limited San Antonio’s second-chance points.  If Oklahoma City can duplicate that success against the best ‘small ball’ team in the NBA, then they can take the Warriors to the brink in this series.

Golden State had a harder than expected time in beating Portland in their last series.  The Warriors struggled with the Trail Blazers in the last three games as they lost, won by 7 points in overtime, and only won by 4 points in Game 5 as a 13.5-point home favorite.  Portland had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense as the Blazers averaged 114.2 points per game.  Golden State’s defensive struggles will continue against an Oklahoma City team that is averaging 111.9 points per 100 possessions on the road in the playoffs.  The line value is with Oklahoma City in what should be a close and competitive Game 1 tonight.

9* Play THUNDER (+). 

Miami played terrific basketball at home in Game 6 to force today’s Game 7 back in Toronto.  The Heat scored 103 points on 47.6% (40-84) shooting from the field.  That was the first time either team eclipsed the century mark in regulation time in this series, and off such a performance, we expect Miami to regress some in this game.  Four of Miami’s five starters scored 12 points or more; that unit combined to score 79 of their 103 total points.  Overall, the Heat had five players score in double digits in Game 6.  Miami’s bench out-scored Toronto’s bench 24-15, but considering the Raptors have the best second unit remaining in the playoffs, it’s highly unlikely the Heat will repeat that performance this afternoon.

Toronto returns home for Game 7, and we expect a strong bounce back performance this afternoon by the Raptors.  Toronto’s offense was terrible on Friday night.  The Raptors only scored 91 points on 41.5% (34-82) shooting from the field and 25% (4-16) shooting from three-point land.  Despite the loss, Toronto did out-score Miami 46-44 inside the paint, and they also held a 12-5 edge in fast break points.  That’s a positive sign for Toronto heading into Game 7, especially since the excellent Raptors bench is expected to play much better in this game.  Home teams are now 99-24 SU (80%) in the history of Game 7 in the NBA Playoffs, including 2-0 already this season.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto at home in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

San Antonio once again played an inexplicably bad game on Tuesday night when they lost 95-91 at home to Oklahoma City.  The Spurs’ offense was terrible in three of the four quarters while only scoring 16, 24, and 19 points.  San Antonio blew a 13-point second half lead after getting out-scored 26-19 over the final 12 minutes of the game.  Overall, the Spurs shot just 40.2% (35-87) from the field in Game 5.  San Antonio has the best bench in the NBA, but that second unit was awful, scoring just 11 total points in the last game.  San Antonio was dominant in their 32-point (124-92) win in Game 1 of this series which was a more accurate depiction of the team's true abilities.  San Antonio is an incredible 14-3 SU off a loss this season with their average win coming by a whopping +17.4 points per game, so they are quite capable of a supreme effort in Game 6 tonight.  Class-A teams off back-to-back losses has been a consistently profitable play in the NBA Playoffs for several decades.

Oklahoma City trailed throughout Game 4 and Game 5; they were down by 11 and 13 points in those games respectively.  The Thunder have now out-scored the Spurs 60-35 over the final 24 minutes of the last two games to take a 3-2 series lead.  Oklahoma City is basically Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and when the team gets limited production from the supporting cast, it’s difficult for them to beat an elite team like the Spurs.  But Steven Adams, Dion Waiters, and Enes Canter have combined to score 73 points on 60% (27-45) shooting from the field in the last two games; both resulting in Thunder wins.  It’s highly unlikely those players will repeat their performances in three consecutive games, and that puts Oklahoma City in a bad spot for tonight’s game.  We’ll back San Antonio in a solid bounce-back spot in Game 6 on Thursday night.

10* Play SPURS (-).

Miami and Toronto are all tied at 2 games apiece heading into Game 5 tonight.  The Heat showed a lot of resilience in their come from behind overtime win in Game 4 on Monday night.  Miami’s offense was terrible in that game, especially from three-point land.  The Heat shot an ugly 6.7% (1-15) from beyond the arc, and they still found a way to win the game.  Miami’s offense has been poor in the last two games as they’ve shot a combined 43.9% (69-157) from the field and 15.2% (5-33) from three-point land.  Miami’s strength is their ability to get to the free throw line.  Over the last two games, Miami is shooting 85.7% (42-49) from the line, and that has allowed them to be competitive despite the poor offensive shooting.

Toronto basically handed Miami the win in Game 4, and that type of loss can be tough to overcome even in the playoffs.  The Raptors are led by their guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, but neither has been able to dent Miami’s defense in this series.  Lowry has scored a total of 68 points on 35.4% (23-65) shooting from the field while DeRozan has scored 70 points on 35% (28-80) shooting from the field.  Toronto is also without starting center Jonas Valanciunas because of an ankle injury; his absence simply puts more pressure on Lowry and DeRozan.  All four games in this series have been decided by 7 points or less with three of the four games going to overtime.  We expect another close game throughout, so we’ll take Miami plus the points in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HEAT (+).

Oklahoma City has won two games in this series, but the Thunder were actually on their way to losing both of those games.  Oklahoma City trailed throughout Game 4 on Sunday night, and they were down by 11 points before playing an outstanding fourth quarter.  The Thunder out-scored the Spurs 34-16 over the final 12 minutes of the game to even the series up at 2 games apiece.  Oklahoma City shot 50.6% (40-79) from the field with Kevin Durant having a dominating game.  Durant scored 41 points on 56% (14-25) shooting from the field, and he also made 10 of his 13 free throw attempts.  Oklahoma City finally got contributions from players other than Durant and Russell Westbrook as Steven Adams, Dion Waiters, and Enes Canter combined to score 44 points on 64% (16-25) shooting from the field.  It’s highly unlikely those players will repeat that performance, and that puts Oklahoma City in a bad spot for tonight’s game.

San Antonio’s offense was terrible in the fourth quarter of Game 4 as they only scored 16 total points.  Overall, the Spurs shot an ugly 16.7% (2-12) from three-point land.  Two of San Antonio’s five starters, Tim Duncan and Danny Green, failed to score a single point in Game 4.  The Spurs once again had to rely on LeMarcus Aldridge who scored 20 points, bringing his 4-game total to 123 points scored in this series.  San Antonio has yet to repeat their complete team effort of Game 1 when they won by 32 points (124-92), but we expect it tonight.  San Antonio is an incredible 14-2 SU off a loss this season with their average win coming by a whopping 17.4 points per game.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by San Antonio, so we’ll back the Spurs in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

9* Play SPURS (-).

San Antonio bounced back strongly in Game 3 with their 100-96 win in Oklahoma City.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Spurs in that game, and we’ll come right back with them in Game 4 tonight.  Despite their last win, San Antonio did not play close to their best basketball as they only shot 43.4% (33-76) from the field.  The Spurs’ offense has been poor in the last two games as they’ve shot a combined 42.9% (73-170) from the field and 38.1% (16-42) from three-point land.  Aside from LeMarcus Aldridge who has scored 65 points on 54.8% (23-42) shooting from the field in the last two games, the other four San Antonio starters have combined to score just 92 points on 39.1% (34-87) shooting from the field.  The above numbers simply show how much San Antonio has been off their game.  San Antonio will put a complete game together tonight, and that spells trouble for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City fought back from a 15-point deficit in Game 3 to temporarily take the lead late in the fourth quarter.  But the Thunder couldn’t hold on, and they ultimately lost by 4 points.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook once again played terrific as the duo combined to score 57 of the team’s 96 total points.  In the past two games, Durant and Westbrook have scored 114 total points on 45.2% (42-93) shooting from the field.  However, the supporting cast has been awful for the Thunder, and they simply cannot beat a complete team like San Antonio without others scoring.  We expect a breakout performance by San Antonio, so we’ll back the Spurs in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play SPURS (-).

San Antonio played perfect basketball in Game 1 of this series, so they were expected to regress in Game 2.  The Spurs did exactly that as they only scored 97 points in a home loss on Monday night.  San Antonio’s offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 42.6% (40-94) from the field and an ugly 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  At one point in the game, San Antonio had yet to attempt a free throw while the Thunder already had 14 free throw attempts.  Aside from LeMarcus Aldridge who scored 41 points on 71.4% shooting from the field, the other four San Antonio starters combined to score just 32 points on 30.4% (14-46) shooting from the field.  The above numbers simply show how much San Antonio was off their game.  But with three full days off since that game, we expect the Spurs to bounce back strong with a complete team effort in Game 3.

Oklahoma City bounced back as expected in Game 2 after getting embarrassed by San Antonio in Game 1 by 32 points (124-92).  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played outstanding in Game 2 as the duo combined to score 57 points on 50% (22-44) shooting from the field.  Overall, the Thunder shot 48.1% (38-79) from the field.  Oklahoma City had five players score 12 points or more, so it was a complete team effort.  San Antonio is an incredible 13-2 SU off a loss this season with their average win coming by a whopping 18.3 points per game.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by San Antonio, so we’ll back the Spurs in Game 3 on Friday night.

9* Play SPURS (-).

Cleveland took a commanding 2-0 series lead after walloping Atlanta by 25 points (123-98) on Wednesday night.  The five starters once again played terrific basketball in Game 2.  They combined to scored 85 of the team’s 123 total points with four of the five starters scoring 11 points or more.  In the first two games of this series, Cleveland’s starters have scored 168 points while shooting an incredible 56.6% (30-53) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers shot 47.1% (41-87) from the field and 55.6% (25-45) from three-point land in Game 2.  Cleveland broke an NBA record with their 25 made three’s, and off back-to-back outstanding shooting performances from beyond the arc, we expect major regression in Game 3 on Friday night, especially since this game will be played on Atlanta’s home court.

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back blowout losses.  The Hawks are in a prime situational spot for this game, especially since they are 30-14 at home this season.  Atlanta shot just 39.9% (63-158) from the field in the first two games, but the Hawks average 103.4 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8), but they’ve been horrible in this series.  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Off back-to-back poor defensive efforts, we expect a very strong performance by the Hawks on the defensive end in this game.  This is a terrific spot for Atlanta, so we’ll take the Hawks plus the points in Game 3 on Friday night.

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Atlanta hung tough in Game 1 before eventually losing 104-93.  The Hawks actually played a terrible game on both ends of the court, but we expect a strong bounce back performance in Game 2 tonight.  Atlanta shot just 37.9% (33-87) from the field and 32.4% (11-34) from three-point land.  Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague combined for just 11 points with 6 of those points coming from the free throw line.  The duo shot just 20% (2-10) from the field, including 20% (1-5) from three-point land.  Korver and Teague combine to average 26.2 points per game, so we expect both players to perform much better tonight.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  We expect a strong performance tonight after they executed poorly on the defensive end in their Game 1 loss on Monday night. 

Cleveland’s starters played terrific basketball in Game 1.  The starting five combined to score 83 of their 104 total points.  Four of the five starters scored 12 points or more after shooting 48% (12-25) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers shot 44.6% (37-83) from the field and 48.4% (15-31) from three-point land.  Cleveland had 10 total players score while seven players scored 8 points or more.  Despite losing by double digits, the Hawks out-scored the Cavaliers 36-32 inside the paint.  Atlanta also out-rebounded Cleveland 48-44, including a 15-10 edge on the offensive glass.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Atlanta, so we’ll take the Hawks plus the points in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Oklahoma City got embarrassed by San Antonio in Game 1 as the Spurs rolled to an easy 32-point (124-92) win.  Oklahoma City played a terrible game on both ends of the court, but we expect a strong bounce back performance in Game 2 tonight.  The Thunder shot just 41.2% (35-85) from the field and a terrible 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for just 30 points with 8 of those points coming from the free throw line.  The duo shot just 32.4% (11-34) from the field, including 0% (0-5) from three-point land.  Durant and Westbrook both average 24 points per game, so we expect both players to perform much better tonight.  Prior to the loss in Game 1, Oklahoma City was 14-7 SU versus San Antonio in games played with Durant, so the Thunder have had plenty of success against the Spurs in the past.

San Antonio played perfect basketball in Game 1 on Saturday night.  The Spurs scored 124 points after shooting an incredible 60.7% (51-84) from the field and an excellent 60% (9-15) from three-point land.  The Spurs had all 13 players score while three players scored 81 of the 124 points overall.  It was a complete team effort in which everybody was on their game.  In four regular season meetings this season, the teams split, but Oklahoma City’s two losses only came by 8 points (93-85) and by 4 points (102-98) in overtime.  That shows that these teams are much closer than the results of Game 1.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Oklahoma City, so we’ll take the Thunder plus the points in Game 2 on Monday night.

10* Play THUNDER (+).

Indiana played terrific basketball in the second half of Game 6 to force tonight’s Game 7 back in Toronto.  The Pacers trailed by 4 points at the half before out-scoring the Raptors 61-39 in the second half.  Indiana got another stellar performance from Paul George in Game 6 as he scored 21 points after getting to the free throw line ten times in the game.  In Game 5, George scored 39 points on 57.9% (11-19) shooting from the field.  Those performances actually set George up to regress tonight considering he struggled mightily against the Raptors in all four regular season meetings.  He shot just 31% (20-65) from the field which was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference this season.  In 59 minutes with George off the court in this series, Indiana is a -33 in points scored compared to +48 in points scored in 160 minutes with him on the court.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.

Toronto returns home for Game 7, and we expect a superb performance tonight by the Raptors.  The team needed a monster fourth quarter rally to beat Indiana back in Game 5, but we expect the Raptors to come out and play their best basketball from the opening tip.  In the six games in this series, Toronto has out-scored Indiana 222-198 inside the paint.  The Raptors have also dominated the glass while holding a 262-237 rebounding edge, including an 85-59 edge on the offensive glass.  Those two areas are key to winning basketball games, and the Raptors have clearly dominated Indiana in the first six games.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors got to the free throw line 169 times in the six games while shooting 76.3% (129-169) from the stripe.  Toronto also has the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so they hold some serious advantages over the Pacers.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 7 of this series on Sunday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Toronto bounced back in Game 5 as they squeaked out a 102-99 home win over Indiana.  The Raptors are now 6-3 SU versus Indiana this season; the Raptors beat the Pacers in three of four regular season meetings.  In the five games in this series, Toronto has out-scored Indiana 190-160 inside the paint.  The Raptors have also dominated the glass while holding a 222-193 rebounding edge, including a 70-47 edge on the offensive glass.  Those two areas are key to winning basketball games, and the Raptors have clearly dominated Indiana in the first five games.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors got to the free throw line 144 times in the five games while shooting 78.5% (113-144) from the stripe.  Toronto also has the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so they hold some serious advantages over the Pacers.  The above numbers will continue tonight, especially since Indiana is set to regress in some areas.

Indiana played terrific in Game 5, but they blew a 17-point lead after getting out-scored 25-9 in the fourth quarter.  That type of loss is difficult to overcome, even in the playoffs.  The Pacers got another stellar performance from Paul George in Game 5 after he scored 39 points on 57.9% (11-19) shooting from the field.  That performance actually sets George up to regress tonight considering he struggled mightily against the Raptors in all four regular season meetings.  He shot just 31% (20-65) from the field which was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference this season.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.  We’ll take the points with Toronto in Game 6 of this series on Friday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Atlanta and Boston have gone Under the total in four of five games in this series, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst against other playoff teams while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1).  We expect the Hawks to regress after scoring 110 points on 14 made three’s in Game 5 on Tuesday night. 

Boston ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9) this season.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season.  The Celtics are without their second leading scorer, Avery Bradley, due to a hamstring injury.  Boston’s offense is much smoother and more efficient with Bradley on the court, but without him they are hit or miss.  The Celtics’ offense ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency against other Eastern Conference playoff teams this season, and that was with Bradley on the court.  Atlanta ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  We expect a low-scoring Game 6 between the Hawks and Celtics on Thursday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Charlotte and Miami played in two high-scoring games before playing in two low-scoring games in this series.  The Hornets and Heat scored 214 points in Game 1, and they scored 218 points in Game 2.  Both of those games came in Miami, and that’s where tonight’s game will be played.  Overall this season, the Hornets ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2).  Charlotte had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break as the Heat averaged +7.6 points per 100 possessions more than they did prior to the break.  Miami’s offense averaged 52.8 points per game in the paint after the All-Star break, and that ranked them #1 in the league.  The Heat scored 102 points inside the paint against Charlotte in the first two games of this series.  In six of eight meetings this season, both Charlotte and Miami averaged 100.0 points or more per 100 possessions.  That shows that both offenses have an easy time scoring on the opposing defense, and we expect more of the same in this game.  We expect a high-scoring Game 5 between the Hornets and Heat on Wednesday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta and Boston have gone Under the total in three of four games in this series, and with tonight being the all important Game 5, we expect another low-scoring game.  Boston ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9) this season.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season.  The Celtics are without their second leading scorer, Avery Bradley, due to a hamstring injury.  Boston’s offense is much smoother and more efficient with Bradley on the court, but without him they are hit or miss.  The Celtics’ offense ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency against other Eastern Conference playoff teams this season, and that was with Bradley on the court.

Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  Atlanta ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst against other playoff teams while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1).  We expect a low-scoring Game 5 between the Celtics and Hawks on Tuesday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Miami played perfect in the first two games of this series, but they reverted back to normal as expected in Game 3 on Saturday.  Miami scored 123 points after shooting an incredible 57.6% (49-85) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land in Game 1.  The Heat scored 115 points after shooting an incredible 57.9% (44-76) from the field and 56.2% (9-16) from three-point land in Game 2.  In the two games combined, Miami scored 238 points on 57.8% (93-161) shooting from the field and 52.9% (18-34) shooting from three-point land.  Things were much different in Game 3 as Miami only scored 80 points after shooting just 34.2% (27-79) from the field and 31.8% (7-22) from three-point land.  Miami and Charlotte are even across the board, and in fact, three of the four regular season games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  The first two games were not indicative of that, but Charlotte showed it in Game 3. 

Charlotte bounced back strong with a 16-point win in Game 3.  The Hornets led by as many as 24 points, and they out-scored Miami 52-28 inside the paint.  Charlotte ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2) during the regular season.  Charlotte actually had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  The Hornets have a very deep team, so we expect another supreme performance by the starters and the bench in tonight’s game.  We’ll back Charlotte once again in Game 4 on Monday night.

10* Play HORNETS (-).

Atlanta and Boston went Under the total in the first two games of this series, but the offenses broke out in Game 3 on Friday night.  That game went Over the total after a 111-103 Boston win.  The teams combined for 60 points from three-point land, and they also scored 42 points from the free throw line.  That’s just under 48% of the total points scored in the game; a random high-scoring game is all it was.  We expect things to revert back to normal tonight.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.

Boston ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9) this season.  The Celtics’ offense played well above their heads on Friday night without Avery Bradley (hamstring) and Kelly Olynyk (shoulder).  Boston had five players score in double figures with Isaiah Thomas leading the way with 42 points on 50% (12-24) shooting from the floor and 15 trips to the free throw line.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season, so their performance in Game 3 was out of the ordinary.  Atlanta ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1) while Boston ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency.  We expect a low-scoring Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics on Sunday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break, so their strong offensive outputs in the first two games of this series were not surprising.  However, the Heat played back-to-back perfect games, and it simply sets them up to regress sharply tonight.  Miami scored 123 points after shooting an incredible 57.6% (49-85) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land in Game 1.  The Heat scored 115 points after shooting an incredible 57.9% (44-76) from the field and 56.2% (9-16) from three-point land in Game 2.  In the two games combined, Miami has scored 238 points on 57.8% (93-161) shooting from the field and 52.9% (18-34) shooting from three-point land.  Miami now hits the road to a face a desperate team, and the likelihood of the Heat continuing to shoot like they did in the two games at home is very, very low.

Charlotte and Miami are much closer teams than the first two games indicate.  In fact, three of the four regular season games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  Charlotte ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2) during the regular season.  Charlotte actually had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  Unfortunately, Charlotte will be without Nicolas Batum in this game after he hurt his foot late in Game 2.  But the Hornets have a very deep team, so his scoring can be made up by a few different players.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Charlotte, so we’ll back the Hornets in Game 3 on Saturday night.

10* Play HORNETS (-).

Atlanta and Boston have gone Under the total in the first two games of this series, and we expect more of the same in Game 3 on Friday night.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  In the first two games of this series, the Hawks have held Boston to just 34.2% (65-190) shooting from the field and 25.4% (16-63) shooting from three-point land.  Atlanta also committed few fouls as the Celtics only got to the free throw line 31 times in the two games.

Boston ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9) this season.  Boston ranked 7th (99.3) of the eight Eastern Conference playoff teams in offensive efficiency.  The Celtics’ offense was terrible without Avery Bradley (hamstring) on Tuesday night.  Bradley is Boston’s second leading scorer at 18 points per game.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season, so losing Bradley is a major blow to the Celtics’ offense.  The Celtics also played without Kelly Olynyk because of a shoulder injury; he’s “questionable probably at best” to play tonight according to head coach Brad Stevens.  Atlanta’s offense has also been bad, especially against other playoff teams.  The Hawks’ offense was the worst against other Eastern Conference playoff teams while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1).  We expect a low-scoring Game 3 between the Hawks and Celtics on Friday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Toronto bounced back strong in Game 2 as expected, and we’ll come right back with the Raptors in Game 3 on Thursday night.  Toronto is now 4-2 SU versus Indiana this season; the Raptors beat the Pacers in three of four regular season meetings.  In the first two games of this series, Toronto has out-scored Indiana 88-56 inside the paint.  The Raptors have also dominated the glass while holding a 96-71 rebounding edge, including a 32-15 edge on the offensive glass.  Those two areas are key to winning basketball games, and the Raptors have clearly dominated Indiana in the first two games.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors got to the free throw line 63 times in the first two games while shooting 77.8% (49-63) from the stripe.  Toronto also has the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so they hold some serious advantages over the Pacers.  The above numbers will continue tonight, especially since Indiana is set to regress in some areas.

Indiana played terrific in Game 1, and they were rewarded with a 100-90 win over Toronto.  The Pacers got another stellar performance from Paul George in Game 2 after he scored 28 points on 53.3% (8-15) shooting from the field.  George scored 33 points on 54.5% (12-22) shooting from the field in Game 1.  However, those performances actually set George up to regress tonight considering he struggled mightily against the Raptors in all four regular season meetings.  He shot just 31% (20-65) from the field which was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference this season.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 3 of this series on Thursday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Charlotte got embarrassed by Miami in Game 1 as the Heat rolled to an easy 32-point (123-91) win.  However, that was not a true result as the Hornets and Heat are much closer teams than Game 1 indicated.  Charlotte ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2) during the regular season.  Charlotte actually had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  Charlotte’s starting lineup averaged 114.5 points per 100 possessions in 406 minutes played together this season; that ranked them #3 in the NBA.  Charlotte and Miami played just one game after the All-Star break, and it was the only game this season where the current lineups faced each other;  Charlotte won 109-106.  We’re willing to ignore the results of Game 1 as the noted numbers above are more trustworthy than a one game sample.

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break, so their strong offensive output in Game 1 was not surprising.  However, the Heat played a perfect game and it simply sets them up to regress sharply tonight.  Miami scored 123 points after shooting an incredible 57.6% (49-85) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land.  The Heat had five players score in double figures while nine players scored overall.  It was a complete team effort in which everybody was on their game.  In four regular season meetings this season, three of the games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  That shows that these two teams are much closer than the results of Game 1 indicated.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Charlotte, so we’ll take the Hornets plus the points in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Boston and Atlanta played in a very misleading final in Game 1.  The Hawks out-lasted the Celtics 102-101, but the teams only had 85 points combined at the half.  The teams only had 182 total points scored with about 2 minutes left to play in the game before a slew of garbage points.  In fact, the fourth quarter had 66 points scored after 137 total points were scored in the first three quarters.  Overall this season, the Celtics ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9).  Boston’s offense will be without Avery Bradley (hamstring) tonight, taking away their second leading scorer at 18 points per game.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season, so losing Bradley is a major blow to the Celtics’ offense.

Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  As good as Atlanta’s defense has been, their offense has been bad, especially against other playoff teams.  The Hawks ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1) while Boston ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency.  We expect a low-scoring Game 2 between the Celtics and Hawks on Tuesday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Indiana played terrific in Game 1, and they were rewarded with a 100-90 win over Toronto.  The Pacers will need to play even better to win Game 2, but we do not expect that to happen.  Indiana went just 1-3 SU against the Raptors in the regular season.  A major reason for that was the play of their offense; they scored less than 100 points in three of the four games.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.  Indiana’s best player, Paul George, struggled mightily against the Raptors in those four games; he shot just 31% (20-65) from the field.  That was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference.  However, the Pacers scored 100 points on 52.4% (11-21) shooting from three-point land.  George scored 33 points on 54.5% (12-22) shooting from the field.  Indiana played well above their average against Toronto in Game 1, so we expect major regression in Game 2 tonight.

Toronto continued their pattern of losing at home in Game 1 of a playoff series.  The Raptors were unable to recover from those losses in the past, but we expect a different outcome for Toronto, especially in tonight’s game.  Toronto has a favorable matchup against Indiana as noted above, and it’s hard to see them playing another poor game tonight.  The Raptors are 32-10 on their home court this season where they average 104.6 points per game and allow just 98.4 points per game.  Despite losing Game 1, the Raptors still out-scored the Pacers 42-26 inside the paint, and they got to the free throw line 38 times.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors also have the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so a full team effort tonight gets the job done.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 2 of this series on Monday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Charlotte and Miami are just about even across the board, and this series figures to be the most competitive in the playoffs.  Overall this season, the Hornets ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2).  Charlotte had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  Charlotte’s starting lineup averaged 114.5 points per 100 possessions in 406 minutes played together this season; that ranked them #3 in the NBA.  Charlotte and Miami played just one game after the All-Star break, and it was the only game this season where the current lineups faced each other.  Charlotte won 109-106, and we expect a similar type of game tonight.

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break as the Heat averaged +7.6 points per 100 possessions more than they did prior to the break.  Miami’s offense averaged 52.8 points per game in the paint after the All-Star break, and that ranked them #1 in the league.  The Heat scored 58 points inside the paint against Charlotte in their March 17th matchup, and they’ll have similar success tonight.  In four meetings this season, both Charlotte and Miami averaged 100.0 points or more per 100 possessions.  That shows that both offenses had an easy time scoring on the opposing defense, and we expect more of the same in this series.  Miami has increased their pace of play recently as well, so the Heat are willing to run up and down while trading points with the Hornets.  We expect a high-scoring Game 1 between the Hornets and Heat on Sunday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Boston and Atlanta have similar statistical makeups, and this series figures to be an ugly one on the offensive end of the court.  Overall this season, the Celtics ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) while the Hawks finished 18th in offensive efficiency (103.0).  Boston’s defense was much better than perceived as they ranked 5th in efficiency (100.9).  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  The above numbers may be surprising, especially considering all four games between Boston and Atlanta this season had 199 points or more scored with the average total of those games being 213 points scored.  But three of those games came before Atlanta’s defensive surge, and the posted total on tonight’s game is simply based on the past meetings.

Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions this season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played against the Hawks.  As good as Atlanta’s defense has been, their offense has been bad, especially against other playoff teams.  The Hawks ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1) while Boston ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency.  We expect both defenses to control this game, so look for a low-scoring Game 1 between the Celtics and Hawks on Saturday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Utah is still alive for a playoff spot, but the odds of the Jazz actually getting in are stacked against them.  Utah needs Houston to lose to Sacramento, but the Kings are 15.5-point home favorites, and they’ll be playing a team that will be without all of their best players.  Utah knows they basically have zero chance at getting the final playoff spot, and because of that, they’ve decided to shutdown some of their better players as well.  Rudy Gobert did not even make the trip to Los Angeles, and Alec Burks who just returned from injury, is questionable after injuring his knee in the last game.  After seeing Houston win earlier in the night, the Jazz will have difficulty in this game, especially since they’ll be playing a motivated opponent.

Los Angeles will play their final game of the season, and it will also be the final game for one of the NBA greats.  Kobe Bryant is retiring after tonight, so this will be his last game in a NBA uniform.  The Lakers have had a dreadful season, but a win tonight will be the right way for Kobe to go out.  Los Angeles will certainly come with their best effort, and they are getting a vulnerable opponent on top of that.  The Lakers will be primed for one of their better games, so taking the points has some value in this game on Wednesday night.\

9* Play LAKERS (+).

Milwaukee and Orlando match-up extremely well for a high-scoring game.  In their three meetings this season, the teams have combined to go Over the total in every game.  Milwaukee’s offense is in good current form; they’ve scored 109 points in each of their last two games.  Orlando’s defense is in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 111 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land in their last five games.  The Magic were unable to slow the Bucks offense down in the earlier meetings, and that will be the case once again tonight.

Orlando comes into this game off a 22-point loss in Miami last night.  The Magic scored just 96 points which snapped their streak of seven consecutive games of scoring 104 points or more.  Orlando will be primed for a strong bounce back performance tonight against Milwaukee, especially on the offensive end of the court.  The Magic averaged 115.6 points per game in their seven previous games before last night.  Milwaukee’s defense has given up 110.6 points per game on 51.1% shooting from the field over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Bucks and Magic on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Orlando and Miami just played on Friday night, and the teams combined to score 221 points with the Magic winning 112-109.  After a sluggish first quarter, the teams combined to score 175 points over the final three quarters.  Miami was surprisingly willing to play in a fast-paced game, and they allowed Orlando to shoot 52.4% (43-82) from the field and 50% (5-10) from three-point land.  The Magic also had 20 fast break points, and 60 of their 112 points came inside the paint.  Miami’s defense was obviously playing on tired legs after their energy was sapped in a come from behind win the night before.  Orlando’s offensive efficiency will be way down in tonight’s game, especially since the Heat have had a day of rest to get their energy back.

Miami played uncharacteristic basketball against Orlando on Friday night.  The Heat prefer to play at a slow pace, and allow their defense to win them games.  Miami took 100 shots against the Magic, including 22 three-point attempts.  Because of that, Miami’s defense suffered greatly, and they lost an important game for their playoff positioning.  Off that loss, and a poor defensive effort, we expect a bounce back performance by the Heat.  Miami’s defense has held their last four home opponents to less than 100 points.  Overall this season, Miami is only giving up 97.9 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Magic and Heat on Sunday night. 

10* Play UNDER the total.

San Antonio played at Golden State last night, and the Spurs lost 112-101 to the Warriors.  Head coach Gregg Popovich decided to play everybody in last night’s game, and if his pattern of resting players holds form, the Spurs will likely be without the majority of their starters tonight.  That should be the case considering San Antonio is playing their third road game in four nights, and they will be doing so in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Also, the Spurs will return home and host Golden State on Sunday, so this is a meaningless sandwich game.  San Antonio also had some major injury scares last night, including LeMarcus Aldridge who suffered a dislocated finger in the game.  

Denver has been a hard-trying team all season despite their poor record.  The Nuggets have had two full days of rest to prepare for tonight’s game, and that gives them a big scheduling advantage over a San Antonio team playing on back-to-back nights.  Denver owns 17 wins on their home court this season, but they’ve lost their last three home games.  The Nuggets will come with a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing one of the elite teams in the league.  Overall, Denver is averaging 104.2 points per game at home this season, so they have enough offense to trade points with the Spurs if Popovich decides to give minutes to his better players.  This is a terrific spot for Denver, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Minnesota comes into tonight’s game in Sacramento off a monumental upset of the Warriors on Tuesday night.  The Timberwolves beat Golden State 124-117 in overtime after shooting 51.2% (44-86) from the field and 47.1% (8-17) from three-point land.  Five players scored in double figures while five players played 33 minutes or more; three players played 40 minutes or more.  Minnesota closed as 14-point underdogs in that game, and that win was certainly unexpected.  Prior to that game, the Timberwolves had lost three consecutive games by margins of 20, 13, and 10 points.  Minnesota’s offense scored 85 points or less in all three of those games, so the sudden reversal of form in the Golden State game came out of nowhere.  That win sets Minnesota up in a major letdown spot for tonight’s meaningless game in Sacramento against the Kings.

Sacramento is just 31-47 on the season, but their last two home games have some meaning.  The Kings are likely playing their final games in this arena, and since their last home game is against Oklahoma City, tonight is their last winnable game.  Sacramento has alternated wins and losses over their last six games, and since they come in off a loss in their last game, we expect a win tonight if their current trend holds form.  The Kings are also taking a big step down in class after recently playing a slew of teams fighting for playoff spots and positioning.  Sacramento is averaging 107.9 points per game on 47% shooting from the field at home this season.  That matches-up well with Minnesota’s defense that allows 106.9 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play KINGS (-).

The Clippers and Lakers played last night, and the game was a noncompetitive blowout.  The better team in Los Angeles (Clippers) won by 22 points (103-81).  The Clippers shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field with 13 different players all scoring at least 2 points or more.  The Clippers are essentially locked into their playoff position, so the team has nothing to gain over their last five games of the regular season.  Head coach Doc Rivers has a tendency to rest his starters late in the season in order to preserve them for the playoffs.  That is especially true when his team is on a back-to-back set as they are tonight.  Rivers will likely give his second unit the majority of the minutes tonight, especially since the team is playing their third game in four nights, and their fifth game over the last eight nights.       

The Lakers are having an embarrassing bad season as they come into tonight’s game with a 16-61 record.  However, tonight’s rematch with the Clippers will bring out a big effort by the Lakers, especially after last night’s poor performance.  Head coach Byron Scott called his team out after bringing little effort: “It bothers me that his last five, six, seven, eight games are going to be with the way we’re playing as a team,” Scott said.  He’s referring to Kobe Bryant’s career coming to an end, and with this being his last game against the Clippers, we expect a peak performance by the Lakers.  “The bottom line is you have to be a professional, you’ve got to come out and play hard every single night. If it’s the last game of the season or five games left in the season, because you’re still getting paid.”  The Clippers could care less about this game while the Lakers will come with a much better effort, so we’ll take the points in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play LAKERS (+).

New Orleans is a mash unit right now.  The Pelicans had eight players suffer season-ending injuries, so their current roster does not resemble one of NBA quality.  New Orleans has played in three consecutive competitive games with their poor roster, but they can’t maintain that level of play with the guys they are sending out onto the court.  The Pelicans only lost by 8 points (100-92) to the Spurs, and then they beat the Nuggets by 6 points (101-95) and the Nets by 19 points (106-87).  New Orleans will play their third road game over their last four games, and they are just 9-29 away from home this season.  The Pelicans give up 105.5 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 36.6% shooting from three-point land on the road.         

Philadelphia is also having an embarrassing bad season as they come into tonight’s game with a 9-68 record.  However, tonight’s opponent presents the 76ers with a legitimate chance at getting their 10th win of the season.  Philadelphia has played a brutal schedule as of late with games against the Warriors, Thunder, Celtics, Pacers (twice), Trail Blazers, and the Hornets (twice).  All of those teams are currently in the playoffs, so the 76ers had little chance of winning those games.  Philadelphia’s offense has actually scored 102 points or more in four of their last six games, so they are in good current form.  The 76ers’ defense is also taking a major drop in class against the limited New Orleans offense.  This is one of Philadelphia’s last chances to get a much-needed win, so we’ll back the 76ers in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play 76ERS (-).

Portland and Golden State match-up extremely well for a high-scoring game.  In their three meetings this season, the teams have combined to score 236, 242, and 240 points.  Portland averaged 119 points per game while the Warriors averaged 120.3 points per game.  The Trail Blazers’ offense is in good current form; they’ve scored 105 points or more in four consecutive games, and in eight of their last nine games overall.  Portland’s defense allows 105.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land on the toad this season.  The Trail Blazers were unable to slow the Warriors’ offense down in three earlier meetings, and that will be the case once again tonight.

Golden State comes into this game off their first home loss of the season.  In fact, that loss snapped their 54-game home winning streak.  Golden State will be primed for a strong bounce back performance tonight against Portland, especially on the offensive end of the court.  The Warriors scored just 106 points in their loss to the Celtics, and they only scored 103 and 102 points in their previous two games.  Those point totals are well below Golden State’s seasonal average of 115 points per game.  The Warriors’ high-scoring offense will return tonight, especially off three straight low outputs.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Trail Blazers and Warriors on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington will play their fourth game of a 5-game West Coast road trip tonight in Phoenix.  The Wizards come in off back-to-back losses, and they are just 1-4 SU over their last five games.  A major reason for the recent slump has been atrocious play by their defense.  The Wizards gave up 102 points or more in four of those five games while allowing an average of 112.8 points per game during that stretch.  Washington allowed their opponents to shoot 48.9% from the field and 36.7% from three-point land.  The Wizards’ offense has been in good current form; they’ve averaged 107.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Phoenix returns home off back-to-back road losses at Milwaukee and at Minnesota.  The Suns have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a good effort tonight.  Phoenix has played little defense all season, and that has been especially true in their recent games.  The Suns’ defense has allowed 102 points or more in six consecutive games, and in eleven of their last twelve games overall.  Phoenix has given up 110.2 points per game over their last five games.  The Suns are averaging 103.4 points per game at home this season, and they’ll have no troubles scoring on the poor Washington defense.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Wizards and Suns on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Boston comes into tonight’s game in Portland off an embarrassing 24-point (114-90) loss to the Clippers on Monday night.  That loss snapped Boston’s 4-game winning streak, but we expect the Celtics to bounce back strong in this game.  Boston has lost six games, including Monday, by more than 15 points this season.  The Celtics are 4-1 SU in games following such defeats with their average win coming by a whopping 13.5 points per game.  Boston’s last three losses have come against the Clippers, Raptors, and Thunder who are all upper echelon teams in the NBA.  The Celtics will face a lesser team tonight in Portland, and Boston is simply a better overall team.  Boston already crushed the Trail Blazers by 23 points (116-93) earlier this month.  The Celtics dominated inside the paint as they out-scored the Trail Blazers 60-34, and they also had 30 fast break points to just 11 fast break points for Portland.   

Portland is 4-2 SU over their last six games, so it appears they are playing good basketball right now.  However, the Trail Blazers’ four wins have come against the dregs of the league like the Kings, Sixers, Mavericks, and Pelicans.  Three of those wins came by 6 points or less, so Portland struggled with those bad teams.  Portland’s defense is not in good current form as they’ve allowed 105.8 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field over their last five games.  To compare, Boston’s defense has allowed just 98.6 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Boston is in a terrific bounce back spot tonight, so we’ll take the Celtics plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Golden State’s incredible season continues on as they come into tonight’s game in Utah with a 67-7 SU record.  However, this is a tough situational and scheduling spot for Golden State.  The Warriors played last night at home, and they beat the Wizards 102-94 after shooting 44% (11-25) from three-point land.  Golden State will now play on a back-to-back set, and they’ll be playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah without rest.  This will also be their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Golden State is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Warriors struggle mightily.  The Warriors are just 1-5 SU when held to less than 100 points this season with their lone win coming by just 6 points over Cleveland.  Tonight’s posted total is just 203, and that’s significant considering Golden State has played in eight straight games with a posted total of 220.5 or greater. 

Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th.  The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games.  But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 8-2 SU and ATS over their last ten games.  Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz have allowed just 88.2 points per game over their last ten games.  Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held twelve of their last fourteen opponents to 99 points or less.  Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 92.7 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Utah’s ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Warriors, so we’ll take the points with the Jazz in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

Oklahoma City and Toronto played way back in November, and the teams combined to score 201 points despite poor shooting and a slow pace.  The teams combined to only take 161 shots from the field, including just 37 attempts from three-point land.  Oklahoma City was awful from three-point land in that earlier game against Toronto.  The Thunder hit just 34.8% (8-23) from beyond the arc, and they added just 12 points from the free-throw line.  Oklahoma City’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form; they’ve averaged 112.2 points per game on 50.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Oklahoma City has scored 111 points or more in seven consecutive games.

Toronto shot the ball terribly in that earlier game, but they still managed to score 103 points on the Oklahoma City defense.  The Raptors shot 41.8% (33-79) from the field, and just 35.7% (5-14) from three-point land.  The Raptors did score a lot of easy baskets with 50 of their total points coming inside the paint.  Toronto’s offense comes into this game in good current form as they’ve scored 224 points in their last two games.  The Raptors return home where they’ve scored 104 points or more in nine straight games.  Overall, Toronto is averaging 104.7 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  With normal shooting percentages, we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Raptors on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th.  The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games.  But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 6-2 SU and ATS over their last six games.  Utah’s last game was a 113-91 blowout loss at Oklahoma City, but that result can be easily dismissed as the Jazz were on a back-to-back set after winning in a comeback the night before in Houston.  Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz have allowed just 90.4 points per game over their last eight games.  Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held ten of their last twelve opponents to 99 points or less.  Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 96.6 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land this season.  Utah’s stout defensive play will continue tonight in Minnesota, and their ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Timberwolves.

Minnesota played an energy-draining game last night in Washington.  The Timberwolves won 132-129 in double overtime.  Minnesota had four starters play 43 minutes or more, and all five starters played 39 minutes or more overall.  Minnesota’s entire second unit played 13 minutes or more as well.  The game was played at an extremely fast pace as the teams combined to take 196 shots, including 54 three-point attempts.  Minnesota also shot 53.1% (51-96) from the field with six players scoring in double digits.  The Timberwolves will now play on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their fourth game in six nights.  Minnesota is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Timberwolves struggle mightily.  The Timberwolves are just 5-24 SU when held to less than 100 points this season; their average loss has come by 12 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with the Jazz in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play JAZZ (-).

Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th.  The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games.  But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 5-1 SU and ATS over their last six games.  Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz allowed just 87.2 points per game over their last six games.  Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held nine of their last ten opponents to 99 points or less.  Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 96.5 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land this season.  Utah’s stout defensive play will continue tonight in Houston, and their ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Rockets.

Houston played an energy-draining game last night in Oklahoma City.  The Rockets ultimately came up short in a 111-107 loss to the Thunder.  Houston had two starters play more than 40 minutes, and four guys played 33 minutes or more overall.  The game was played at an extremely fast pace as the teams combined to take 183 shots, including 72 three-point attempts.  Houston will now play on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their fourth game in six nights.  Houston is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Rockets struggle mightily.  The Rockets have been held to less than 100 points 17 times this season.  Houston is just 2-15 SU in those games with their two wins coming by just 4 points over the Spurs and by 2 points over the Jazz.  Houston is in a poor scheduling spot for this game, and since Utah is also a bad matchup for them, we’ll take the points with the Jazz in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

Washington comes into tonight’s game in Atlanta on a nice 4-game winning streak.  The Wizards have played terrific basketball in those four games, especially on the defensive end of the court.  Washington has held their last four opponents to 96 points or less while allowing just 90 points per game.  The Wizards held those four teams to just 39.6% (134-338) shooting from the field and 25.8% (25-97) shooting from three-point land.  Washington’s stout defensive play will continue tonight because of a trade they made at the deadline.  The Wizards acquired Markieff Morris from the Suns, and his defense on Paul Millsap will be the key difference in tonight’s game.  Washington was routinely torched by Millsap because the Wizards had nobody to guard him.  With Morris, Washington now has a nice edge on both ends of the court.  “It’s going to be a good match up, him going against Millsap,” John Wall said.  “In the past we’d have to double-team certain people. Now we got somebody that can guard them guys one-on-one without help and be able to go back and those guys at the other end.”

Atlanta is also in good current form; the Hawks are on a 5-game winning streak.  But those wins have come against some bad teams like the Grizzlies, Nuggets, and Rockets.  The Hawks also won two games by 4 points or less, so it’s not like they’ve been dominating their opponents.  Atlanta has played nowhere near their level of last season, and they’ve basically beat-up on the bad teams this season.  The Hawks have been mediocre at best against teams on their level, and they’ve been poor against the upper echelon teams.  Tonight’s game against Washington pits the Hawks against a team on their level, and the Wizards are much better suited to beat Atlanta now that they have Morris to defend Millsap.  “I think that will help us out a lot,” Bradley Beal said of Morris.  “Somebody who can move and who’s pretty much the same size who can guard multiple positions.”  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Washington plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Los Angeles continues their 5-game road trip with a game in Memphis tonight.  The Clippers come in off a perfect offensive game in their 16-point win in Houston on Wednesday night.  Los Angeles scored 122 points on 56.6% (43-76) shooting from the field and 40% (12-30) shooting from three-point land in that game.  Despite scoring 122 points, Los Angeles played that game at a slow pace as indicated by only taking 76 total shots in the game.  The Clippers’ defense has been poor over their last three games as they allowed 106, 108, and 114 points.  However, they played three strong offensive teams in the Rockets, Cavaliers, and Spurs.  With two days off since their last game, the Clippers’ defense will have fresh legs while taking a monumental step-down in offensive class against the undermanned Grizzlies.  Los Angeles held a healthy Memphis team to just 92 points on 43.8% (35-80) shooting from the field and 18.2% (2-11) shooting from three-point land earlier this season.

Memphis comes into tonight’s game against Los Angeles on a 2-6 SU slide.  The Grizzlies figure to lose once again as they are double-digit underdogs in this game.  Memphis is playing with a misfit team; a roster that does not resemble one of NBA caliber.  The Grizzlies’ offense is in terrible current form; they’ve scored 86 points or less in three of their last four games.  Memphis’ offense doesn’t project to have much success tonight, especially since they’ve scored just 92, 86, 79, and 90 points in their last four meetings with Los Angeles.  As mentioned above, those games came when Memphis had their full compliment of players.  The current state of the Grizzlies is bleak and extremely limited.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Clippers and Grizzlies on Saturday night. 

9* Play UNDER the total.

Oklahoma City is just 5-8 SU over their last 13 games, so they are not playing their best basketball right now.  However, the Thunder come into tonight’s game in Boston off one of their best performances of the season, and we expect some regression off that sharp reversal of form.  Oklahoma City beat Portland by 34 points (128-94) at home on Monday night; it was one of their best offensive games of the season.  The Thunder dominated that game from start to finish as they shot 59% (49-83) from the field, 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land, and 80.8% (21-26) from the free throw line.  The Thunder got a complete team effort as seven players scored in double figures while eleven players scored in the game.  Oklahoma City put a lot of focus into that game after losing back-to-back games to the Timberwolves and Spurs.

Boston returns home off a 103-98 loss in Indiana last night.  The Celtics are 7-4 SU over their last eleven games with three of their four losses coming by 5 points or less.  Boston is in a scheduling and situational spot tonight in which they’ve had a lot of success with this season.  When playing at home off a road loss, the Celtics are 7-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming by 8 points.  They actually led that game going into the fourth quarter before getting out-scored by 10 points.  Boston also lost their previous home game, so we expect a big effort tonight.  Overall, the Celtics are 23-11 at home this season where they own a solid +6.1 point differential.  Boston is in a terrific spot tonight, so we’ll take the Celtics plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Cleveland will complete their 4-game West Coast road trip tonight in Utah.  The Cavaliers have gone 3-0 SU and ATS so far with wins over the Kings, Lakers, and Clippers.  Cleveland played yesterday afternoon in Los Angeles against the Clippers, and the Cavaliers dominated that game from start to finish.  Cleveland won by 24 points (114-90) after shooting 48.8% (41-84) from the field and 48.6% (18-37) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers got a complete team effort as six players scored in double figures while ten players scored in the game.  Cleveland put all of their focus into that spotlight national TV game against the Clippers, and after such an efficient performance, we expect regression tonight, especially since the Cavaliers have to play without rest in the thin air and altitude of Utah.

Utah returns home off an easy 108-99 win in Sacramento last night.  The Jazz never trailed in that game, and they led by as many as 25 points, so the 9-point winning margin is misleading.  Utah is in good current form as they are 3-2 SU over their last five games with one of their losses coming in San Antonio against the Spurs.  Utah has played six of their last eight games on the road; this will be just their third home game since February 29th.  The Jazz are 20-13 at home this season where they own a solid +4.3 point differential.  Utah has played outstanding defense on their home court all season; they are allowing just 94.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  Gordon Hayward is not expected to play tonight for the Jazz, but teams often step up their play in the first game without a leading scorer, plus the opponent often overlooks the team.  This is likely tonight since Cleveland is in such a poor scheduling and situational spot.  Utah is catching Cleveland at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Jazz plus the points in this home game on Monday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

New Orleans comes into tonight’s game in Milwaukee on a back-to-back set after playing in Memphis last night.  The Pelicans lost that game 121-114 in overtime after blowing a 99-97 lead with 58 seconds left to play in regulation time.  That type of loss comes with a hangover, especially for a bad team that played a lot of minutes.  New Orleans had four guys play 40 minutes or more with five guys playing 36 minutes or more.  The Pelicans had six guys play 25 minutes or more overall, including two guys on the second unit.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since New Orleans is playing on back-to-back nights.  This will also be the Pelicans’ third game in four nights with all three of those games coming on the road.

Milwaukee will play their second consecutive home game after beating Miami 114-108 on Wednesday night.  The Bucks have had two full days of rest to prepare for tonight’s game, and that gives them a huge scheduling advantage over New Orleans.  Milwaukee has played much better basketball on their home court this season.  The Bucks are 19-12 at home compared to just 8-26 on the road.  The same is true for New Orleans; the Pelicans are just 7-25 on the road compared to 17-15 on their home court.  Milwaukee owns a positive point differential at home; their offense is averaging 102.7 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans owns a -6.8 point differential on the road where their defense is allowing 106.1 points per game.  New Orleans is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with Milwaukee in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BUCKS (-).

New York comes into tonight’s game in Los Angeles off a 128-97 blowout win in Phoenix on Wednesday night.  The 128 points scored by the Knicks was one of their best offensive performances of the season.  New York had seven players score in double digits while shooting 56.1% (46-82) from the field and an incredible 66.7% (16-24) from three-point land.  The Knicks also hit 83.3% (20-24) from the free throw line.  New York’s offense played a perfect game, but we expect major regression tonight.  Prior to that offensive outburst, the Knicks did not eclipse more than 105 points in 14 of their previous 16 games.  New York’s offensive performance against the Suns was an anomaly, and there’s a high probability that the Knicks will not come close to matching that efficient production.

Los Angeles returns home off a 120-108 blowout loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night.  The Clippers were in a terrible spot for that game, so we can dismiss the results.  Los Angeles played one of their worst defensive games of the season as they allowed the Thunder to shoot 52.7% (48-91) from the field in that game.  Off that loss, and with a return home, we expect a much better defensive performance by the Clippers tonight.  Los Angeles also lost their previous home game because of poor defense; they allowed 107 points to the Hawks.  Prior to their awful defensive effort against the Thunder, Los Angeles had held six of their previous nine opponents to 98 points or less.  In an earlier season meeting, the Clippers held the Knicks to just 88 points on 38.8% (33-85) shooting from the field and 22.2% (4-18) shooting from three-point land.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Knicks and Clippers on Friday night. 

9* Play UNDER the total.

Los Angeles and Oklahoma City just played a week ago with the Clippers winning 103-98 on their home court.  That was an extremely fortunate win by Los Angeles as they trailed by 17 points going into the fourth quarter.  The Clippers out-scored Oklahoma City 35-13 over the final 12 minutes of the game to escape with the win.  Los Angeles was terrible in that game as they shot just 40.8% (40-98) from the field and 28.1% (9-32) from three-point land.  The Clippers also got dominated on the glass while getting out-rebounded by 18 (63-45), including an 18-12 deficit on the offensive glass.  Los Angeles will now play the rematch on the Thunder’s home court, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll win this game with a repeat of their performance in last week’s game.  The Clippers were in an excellent spot for their last game in Dallas which resulted in a 109-90 blowout win, but they are taking a huge step-up in class tonight against a motivated opponent.

Oklahoma City returns home off a 4-game road trip where they went just 2-2, including a loss in Los Angeles.  The Thunder have also lost their last three home games where they are still 25-8 on the season.  Oklahoma City is in a prime spot for a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing with legitimate revenge.  In that game they lost to the Clippers, the Thunder led by as many as 22 points despite terrible offensive play.  Oklahoma City shot just 39.8% (39-98) from the field and 28.6% (10-35) from the field.  However, the Thunder owned an impressive 27-11 edge in fast break points while controlling the glass as mentioned above.  Those two dominating stats show that Oklahoma City simply owns a distinctive match-up advantage against the Clippers.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play THUNDER (-).

Washington had a nice 4-game winning streak going prior to losing their last two games to Indiana and Cleveland.  Their last loss came at home to Pacers, but that defeat came by just a single point (100-99).  The Wizards will now hit the road and begin a 3-game road trip in Portland tonight.  Washington’s next three games are all critically important for their playoff hopes, and since they are coming off a home loss, we expect a peak performance by the Wizards tonight.  Washington’s offense was in excellent form prior to their last two games; the Wizards had scored 103 points or more in six consecutive games.  Their offensive success will return tonight against a Portland team that has allowed 356 total points in their last three games.  Since the All-Star break, the Trail Blazers’ defense has given up 102 points or more in eight of ten games.  Overall, Portland has allowed 107.7 points per game to their opponents since the break.

Portland was one of the hottest teams in the NBA from mid-January to the beginning of March.  The Trail Blazers went 18-4 SU over a 22-game span, but most of those wins came over inferior opponents.  Things have turned sour for Portland as they come into tonight on a 3-game losing streak with two of the losses coming by 23 and 20 points.  Portland was expected to be one of the worst teams in the league after losing four of their five starters from last year’s team.  But the Trail Blazers overachieved greatly during their recent run, and now it’s time for them to regress.  Portland is returning home off a 6-game road trip, and they’ve had just one day to settle in.  Washington comes into tonight’s game with two full days of rest, so they have a scheduling advantage over Portland.  The Trail Blazers are overvalued right now, so we’ll take Washington plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Los Angeles has played a tough schedule since the All-Star break, but the Clippers have managed to go 5-3 SU in those games.  Los Angeles went 2-1 against the Spurs, Warriors, and Thunder which is certainly no easy feat.  The Clippers hit the road off a poor home performance where they lost 107-97 to the Hawks.  Los Angeles was in a natural letdown spot for that game after making a big comeback in their previous game against Oklahoma City.  The Clippers’ offense was terrible in defeat as they only shot 43% (34-79) from the field and 37.5% (12-32) from three-point land.  Los Angeles was horrendous from the free throw line as well; they shot just 60.7% (17-28) from the stripe.  The Clippers turned the ball over 19 times in that game as well.  Off such a poor performance, we expect Los Angeles to bounce back strong tonight in Dallas, especially since they are catching the Mavericks at the perfect time.

Dallas comes into tonight’s game against Los Angeles on a back-to-back set after playing in Denver last night.  The Mavericks lost that game 116-114 in overtime after blowing a 106-102 lead with 21 seconds left to play in regulation time.  That type of loss comes with a hangover, especially for an older team that played a lot of minutes.  Dallas had four guys play 35 minutes or more with three guys playing 38 minutes or more.  The Mavericks had seven guys play 24 minutes or more overall, including three guys on the second unit.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Dallas is playing on back-to-back nights.  Los Angeles is simply the better team, and with the Mavericks in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Clippers in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Brooklyn has had a miserable season; the Nets come into tonight’s game in Minnesota with an 18-44 record, including a 7-22 mark on the road.  Brooklyn is currently on a 9-game road trip, and tonight’s game will be their seventh of the trip.  The Nets have played in multiple time zones, and they’ve gone in and out of altitude as well.  Brooklyn won 121-120 in overtime last night in Denver on a last-second tip-in.  However, last night’s win sets the Nets up in a flat spot for tonight’s game against Minnesota, especially since they exerted a lot of energy in a game that had 17 lead changes while being played in thin air and altitude.  The Nets had five guys play 33 minutes or more with nine guys playing 16 minutes or more.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Brooklyn will be playing their seventh game in twelve nights with all of those games coming on the road. 

Minnesota has played a tough schedule since the All-Star break, so their record is poor.  But the Timberwolves were expected to lose games to the Celtics, Raptors, Mavericks, Wizards, and Grizzlies.  The Timberwolves return home off a loss in Milwaukee, and they also lost their previous home game as well, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Minnesota finally gets a team below their level, and they already beat Brooklyn with little trouble earlier this season.  Back in December, Minnesota won 100-85 in Brooklyn.  They led that game by as many as 20 points, and they out-scored the Nets in three of four quarters.  Minnesota is simply a better team than Brooklyn, and with the Nets in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Timberwolves in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Utah has had terrible results since the All-Star break.  The Jazz have gone just 2-6 in their last eight games, and they come into tonight’s game in Memphis on a 4-game losing streak.  However, the recent results can be attributed to the level of competition Utah has played.  Losing to teams like the Spurs, Celtics, and Raptors was expected.  Utah also played some of the hottest teams in the NBA like the Trail Blazers and Wizards.  Despite losing, Utah has been a competitive team as four of the losses have come by 10 points or less with three of the losses coming by 5 points or less.  Utah’s defense has allowed 100 points or more in back-to-back games.  They’ve done that ten other times so far this season.  In the game following those poor defensive efforts, the Jazz have allowed just 95.1 points per game.  Utah also went 7-3 SU in those games, so we expect a strong bounce back effort from the Jazz tonight.      

Memphis has gone 5-2 since the All-Star break, but the opponents played had a lot to do with those winning results.  The Grizzlies beat the Lakers twice, Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Kings.  Those four teams are all terrible, and unlikely to make the playoffs.  Utah is currently 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, so Memphis is actually stepping-up in class for this game.  The Memphis front office got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green at the trade deadline, and they acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks so they can rebuild their old and aging roster.  The recent wins have come as a major surprise, especially since Memphis’ current roster is one of the worst in the NBA.  The Grizzlies have been winning with smoke and mirrors, so we’ll back Utah in this game on Friday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

Detroit lost their first two games after the All-Star break, but since then, the Pistons have gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.  Detroit won at Cleveland, and they also beat Toronto at home, so they’ve played good competition as well.  The Pistons acquired Tobias Harris at the trade deadline, and since being inserted into the starting lineup, Detroit’s offense has come alive.  “We’ve been much better sharing the ball,” Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy said.  “What it does, is that when the ball is moving, you create good feelings, energy and guys want to play.”  The players feel the same way: “It just shows the team chemistry is coming along,” said Tobias Harris.  “Everybody’s looking for each other and playing off each other. I think the biggest thing is what we say when we’re gathering is ‘Family on three,’ and guys are praying like a family.”  Detroit has scored 327 points in their last three games, so they are in excellent current form. 

San Antonio’s incredible season has continued since the All-Star break; the Spurs are 5-1 with all of those games coming on the road.  But tonight presents a poor situational and scheduling spot for San Antonio.  The Spurs will play their first home game since February 6th, and it will be just their second home game in a month.  San Antonio goes on their annual ‘Rodeo Trip’ each season, but the first game back is often difficult and challenging.  The Spurs have been off for the last three days as well, and extra rest has not been good for this veteran team this season.  San Antonio is just 1-2 SU and ATS with 3 days of rest or more, and their offense has averaged just 103 points per game in that situation.  Detroit is playing San Antonio at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Pistons plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Memphis will play their third consecutive road game, and their fourth road game in six games since the All-Star break.  That is not a good thing, especially for a team that will be playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The Grizzlies won 102-101 in Denver last month, but Memphis was playing with a much different roster back then.  The Memphis front office cleaned house after that game when they got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green and acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The Grizzlies are already without Marc Gasol for the rest of the season.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks as they rebuild their old and aging roster over the next couple of seasons.  Since making the moves, Memphis has gone 3-2 SU with two wins over the hapless Lakers, and a lucky comeback win at home over Minnesota.  The Grizzlies were not competitive against the Raptors, and they lost to a terrible Phoenix team.  Memphis’ current roster simply has no business laying points on the road.

Denver returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 122-116 overtime loss in Dallas.  The Nuggets also lost their last two home games, so we expect a peak performance in tonight’s game.  Denver is 0-17 this season when getting out-rebounded, but the Nuggets should dominate the glass tonight.  In the last two meetings against Memphis, the Nuggets had a 99-80 rebounding edge, including a 29-15 edge on the offensive glass.  The Grizzlies have also historically struggled in Denver; Memphis is 4-26 SU their last 30 visits to the Mile High City.  Denver’s offense has scored 100 points or more in nine consecutive home games, and in ten of their last eleven home games overall.  Memphis has allowed 105.4 points per game in their last five games, so the Nuggets will have a lot of offensive success tonight.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Monday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (+)

Memphis just beat the Lakers by 9 points at home on Wednesday night, but their margin of victory was quite unimpressive considering their on-court performance.  The Grizzlies shot 56.5% (48-85) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land.  They also had six players score in double figures, and eight players score at least 8 points or more.  Despite all that, Memphis was only able to win the game by 9 points on their home court.  Now they will face the same team on the road, and it’s hard to imagine Memphis duplicating that production.  The Memphis front office cleaned house at the trade deadline; they got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green and acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The Grizzlies are already without Marc Gasol for the rest of the season.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks as they rebuild their old and aging roster over the next couple of seasons.  Memphis’ current roster has no business laying points on the road regardless of the opponent.

Los Angeles has had a horrendous season; the Lakers come into tonight’s game with an 11-48 record.  The Lakers are an extremely young team, and despite the continuous losses, they have not quit on the season.  Los Angeles finally returns home after playing seven of their last eight games on the road.  Their last home game was against an elite San Antonio team, so we can easily dismiss that loss even though the Lakers only came up 6 points short.  The team is simply glad to be back at home: “The atmosphere is finally good. We’ve got the home crowd on our side,” D’Angelo Russell said.  “It plays a bigger factor in winning or losing the game when you’ve got the home crowd. I feel like the fans want to see a show so it’s a good opportunity to put on a show for these guys.”  Memphis is an overvalued team right now, and with Los Angeles in a good bounce back spot, we’ll take the Lakers plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Golden State’s incredible season has continued since the All-Star break; the Warriors are 3-1 SU with all of those games coming on the road.  Golden State won 118-112 last night in Miami after coming back from a 12-point deficit.  The Warriors out-scored the Heat 38-29 in the fourth quarter to steal that win.  However, last night’s win sets the Warriors up in a flat spot for tonight’s game against Orlando, especially since Golden State has Oklahoma City on deck.  The Warriors had three guys play 33 minutes or more with six guys playing 27 minutes or more last night.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Golden State will now be playing their fifth game in seven nights with all of those games coming on the road.

Orlando has played extremely well since the All-Star break.  The Magic have gone 2-1 SU in their three games with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  Orlando lost their last home game, and since they are 15-13 SU at home this season, the Magic qualify in a good bounce-back situation and are now setup to play a competitive game tonight.  Orlando acquired Ersan Ilyasova during the All-Star break, and his defense has really bolstered Orlando in recent games.  Brandon Jennings was also acquired at the trade deadline, and he provides instant offense off the bench.  Orlando is a different team now, and they are an undervalued commodity.  Victor Oladipo is questionable tonight, but the Magic have actually been a better defensive team without him on the court this season.  Orlando is catching Golden State at the right time, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play MAGIC (+).

Sacramento and Denver just played on Friday night with the Kings winning 116-110 on their home court.  Sacramento shot 49.4% (41-83) from the field, 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land, and 77.4% (24-31) from the free throw line and they only won that game by 6 points at home.  The Kings also had five players score in double figures, including three starters scoring 24 points or more.  Despite all that, the Kings only won the game by two possessions, and that does not bode well for tonight’s rematch in Denver.  The Kings have played just one game since the All-Star break; that came with 8 full days of rest.  Sacramento comes into tonight’s game with another 3 full days of rest, but that is not a good thing, especially since they’ll be playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Teams with limited conditioning have an extremely difficult time playing in altitude, and we expect that to be a major factor in this game, especially in the second half.

Denver has lost both of their games since the All-Star break.  The Nuggets lost the aforementioned game in Sacramento, and they lost to the Celtics at home on Sunday night.  Despite losing, the Nuggets have a scheduling edge since they are back into their rhythm with two games played since the long layoff.  Denver will be playing just their third home game since February 5th, and since they lost their last home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Prior to their recent home loss, the Nuggets were 3-1 in their previous four home games with their offensive averaging 109 points per game.  Denver’s offense will have little trouble scoring on a terrible Sacramento defense that is allowing 111.5 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Denver is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play NUGGETS (-).

Detroit and Cleveland both played yesterday, but the results were much different.  The Pistons lost at home to the Pelicans while the Cavaliers blew out the Thunder in Oklahoma City.  Now the teams will meet tonight in Cleveland, and Detroit gets a good setup to play a competitive game.  The Pistons have lost both of their games since the All-Star break, and they were just 6-11 over their final 17 games of the first half of the season.  Detroit acquired Tobias Harris at the All-Star break, and he will play with the starting five tonight.  In his two games with the Pistons, Harris has scored 37 points off the bench.  With more playing time tonight, we expect Harris to have an impact on this game from the opening tip.  In two games against Cleveland this season, Detroit is 1-1 with their loss coming by just 8 points.  The Pistons have played the Cavaliers close, and tonight’s game will be more of the same.   

Cleveland has won both of their games since the All-Star break; they beat the Bulls in their first game of the second half.  Yesterday’s big win over the Thunder sets the Cavaliers up in a major flat spot for tonight’s game against Detroit.  Cleveland won by 23 points (115-92) in Oklahoma City after shooting 51.2% (41-80) from the field, 43.5% (10-23), and 85.2% (23-27) from the free throw line.  Cleveland played a perfect game, but four guys played 35 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 37 minutes or more.  Cleveland also had two players off their bench play 25 minutes or more.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since the Cavaliers are off a spotlight win.  Detroit is playing Cleveland at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Pistons plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Memphis has gone 15-6 over their last 21 games after going 16-16 over their first 32 games of the season.  Their recent winning ways appear to be quite impressive on the surface, but the current state of the team and organization tell a different tale.  The Memphis front office cleaned house at the trade deadline; they got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green and acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The Grizzlies are already without Marc Gasol for the rest of the season.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks as they rebuild their old and aging roster over the next couple of seasons.  The current team is a group of malcontents that gave themselves the nickname “The Goon Squad” which is a fitting description.  Memphis beat Minnesota at home on Friday night, but they needed to out-score the lowly Timberwolves 33-23 in the fourth quarter to win that game by 5 points.  Now they will hit the road and step way up in class against a Toronto team coming off a bad performance.

Toronto lost 116-106 in Chicago as 7.5-point road favorites on Friday night.  The Raptors played a terrible game on both ends of the court, and off such a bad performance, we expect a peak effort in tonight’s game.  Toronto will play their first home game since January 30th.  The Raptors are 18-6 on their home court where they own a +7.1 point differential on the season.  Toronto’s offense is averaging 103.9 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Raptors’ defense has been terrific all season; they allow just 97.7 points per game and only 96.8 points per game at home.  That unit comes into this game off back-to-back games in which they gave up 100 points or more.  That has already happened eight times this season with the Raptors going 7-1 SU in their following game with those seven wins coming by an average of 13.1 points per game.  Toronto is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Detroit and Washington played back in mid-November with the Wizards winning 97-95 on the Pistons’ home court.  That game was close throughout, and tonight’s game should play out the same way.  Detroit went into the All-Star break in poor current form as they lost three consecutive games, and they were just 6-11 over their final 17 games of the first half of the season.  The All-Star break came at the perfect time for the Pistons, and the eight days off allowed them to regroup for a second half push.  Detroit also got rid of Brandon Jennings at the trade deadline while acquiring Tobias Harris; those moves instantly improved the team.  The Pistons are the only team currently out of the playoffs that own more road wins than home losses on the season.  That is a predictive measure that correlates directly to playoff teams in the NBA, so the Pistons are an undervalued commodity right now. 

Washington was also struggling heading into the All-Star break as the Wizards were just 4-9 in their final 13 games of the first half.  Washington played at home last night, and the Wizards beat the Jazz 103-89.  Washington shot 48.8% (42-86) from the field and 38.9% (7-18) from three-point land, so they were certainly ready off the long rest.  However, three guys played 34 minutes or more with five guys playing 29 minutes or more.  Washington also had three players off their bench play 21 minutes or more.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since the Wizards haven’t played back-to-back games since February 5th and 6th, and they’ll be doing so after having eight days off.  Overall, Washington is just 12-16 at home where they own a -1.6 point differential on the season.  We’ll take Detroit plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Golden State is obviously having a historical season as they come into tonight’s game in Phoenix with a 47-4 record.  The Warriors are a tough team to go against, but tonight presents a terrific opportunity to take a boatload of points in a game Golden State figures to go thru the motions.  Golden State hosted Houston last night in a nationally televised game.  The Warriors didn’t play their best basketball, but they rallied and out-scored the Rockets 30-17 in the fourth quarter to win the game by 13 points.  Five players logged 31 minutes or more, and another guy played over 28 minutes.  The Warriors used up a lot of energy last night, and now they have to hit the road and play the lowly Suns.  This is simply a game that Golden State will have little interest in, especially with their All-Star break beginning after tonight.   

Phoenix is having a miserable season, but they are in a terrific spot for tonight’s game against the Warriors.  The Suns will be playing their fifth consecutive home game, and they come in with a full day of rest.  Phoenix has lost their previous four home games, so this is a game they will bring their best effort, especially since they are playing Golden State.  The Suns have lost 17 games at home this season, but they would be 15-2 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Golden State hasn’t played with much defensive intensity recently; the Warriors have allowed 107.8 points per game over their last five games.  Golden State is simply in a poor spot, so we’ll take Phoenix plus the points in this game on Wednesday night. 

9* Play SUNS (+).

Los Angeles has played two games of their current 4-game East Coast road trip.  The Clippers just played a 5-game East Coast road trip over a 7-day span prior to playing three home games before this current trip.  Los Angeles is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Philadelphia, especially since they’ve won their first two games of this trip.  The Clippers won 100-93 in Miami on Sunday afternoon, but four guys played 32 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 34 minutes or more.  Prior to that game, the Clippers won in Orlando after shooting 54.1% (40-74) from the field.  Now Los Angeles will play the lowly 76ers who they pounded by 31 points (130-99) earlier this season.  The Clippers will have little focus on this game, especially with a trip back to Boston for Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce looming on Wednesday night.

Philadelphia is having a miserable season, but they are in a terrific spot for tonight’s game against the Clippers.  The 76ers won their last game at home, so they’ll ride some momentum into this game.  Philadelphia’s offense has been good in their recent home games, and in fact, they are averaging 101.8 points per game in their last four home games.  Los Angeles is allowing 100.5 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Los Angeles is also playing a back-to-back road game for the eighth time this season; they are just 4-3 SU in those games, and a woeful 1-6 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Los Angeles is simply in a poor spot, so we’ll take Philadelphia plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

9* Play 76ERS (+).

Chicago played last night in Denver, and the Bulls blew an 18-point lead in the second half to lose 115-110.  Chicago got out-scored 42-21 in the fourth quarter, and they allowed the Nuggets to make their second biggest comeback in the second half in team history.  The Bulls not only lost the game on the court, but they also lost their best player, Jimmy Butler, to a knee injury.  Butler will miss tonight’s game according to reports.  This is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Chicago.  The Bulls are playing on a back-to-back road set with this also being their sixth consecutive road game over a 10-day span.  Chicago will also be playing their fifth game in seven nights, and after the way they lost last night in Denver, it’s highly unlikely the Bulls will come with their best effort here.

Minnesota returns home off a 4-game road trip with their last being an impressive 108-102 win in Los Angeles against the Clippers.  The Timberwolves have been home since Thursday, so they’ve had two full days off to rest and prepare for tonight’s game.  Over their last five games, Minnesota’s offense has been in terrific current form.  The Timberwolves have averaged 105.8 points per game on 51% shooting from the field in those games.  Chicago’s defense has been poor recently as they’ve allowed 106.6 on 45.7% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Minnesota is catching Chicago at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Timberwolves in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Los Angeles’ 4-game winning streak was snapped on Wednesday night when they lost at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Clippers just completed a 3-game home stand after playing a 5-game East Coast road trip where they went 3-2 over a 7-day span.  Now the Clippers must hit the road again tonight, and it will begin another 4-game East Coast road trip.  This is a terrible scheduling spot for the Clippers, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll come with their best effort in this game.  Two of Los Angeles’ three recent road wins have come by just 2 points apiece.  Overall, the Clippers have allowed 101.1 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Orlando is just 2-14 over their last 16 games played, but the Magic have been a competitive team recently.  The Magic were routinely losing games by 15 to 20 points at the beginning of their downswing, but over their last few games, Orlando has lost close games; five of their last seven losses have come by single digits.  The Magic are playing with a lot of confidence right now despite losing games, and that makes them a dangerous underdog.  Orlando has played five of their last six games on the road; their lone recent home game resulted in a 119-114 win over Boston last Sunday night.  Overall, Orlando is 13-10 at home where they are averaging 101.9 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land.  Orlando is catching Los Angeles at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Orlando is just 2-13 over their last 15 games played, but the Magic have been a competitive team recently.  The Magic were routinely losing games by 15 to 20 points at the beginning of their downswing, but over their last few games, Orlando has lost close games; four of their last six losses have come by single digits.  The Magic got their confidence back with an important home win over the Celtics two games back.  Orlando’s loss in San Antonio can easily be forgiven as the Spurs went into that game off an embarrassing effort against Cleveland.  Now the Magic will play in Oklahoma City against a team they match-up with extremely well.  Orlando is 6-1 ATS versus the Thunder in their last seven meetings, including a 139-136 defeat earlier this season.  The Magic led that game by 16 points in the fourth quarter before the Thunder forced overtime.       

Oklahoma City comes into this game from the opposite end of the spectrum.  The Thunder have won four straight games, and they are 11-1 over their last 12 games overall.  However, Oklahoma City has not won many of those games by big margins.  In fact, five of their last seven wins have come by single digits.  Oklahoma City’s defense comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Thunder have allowed 113.4 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Orlando’s offense has averaged 101.4 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Orlando matches-up well with Oklahoma City, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Wednesday night. 

9* Play MAGIC (+).

Toronto comes into this game on an 11-game winning streak, but the Raptors have played a ridiculously easy schedule during that span.  Toronto played just one Western Conference team in those eleven games, and they also played their last seven games at home.  The Raptors will now hit the road for the first time since January 14th, and they will play their first road game outside of the eastern time zone since December.  Toronto was deep into a set routine from being at home for so long, but now that has been disrupted, so they are in a bad situational spot for tonight’s game in Denver, especially since they will be playing in the thin air and altitude.  The Raptors only own a +2.5-point differential on the road this season; they own a +4.9-point differential overall.  Toronto is only 13-9 on the road compared to 18-6 at home, so a road game after a string of home games makes this a bad scheduling spot for the Raptors.

Denver returns home off three consecutive road games with their last being a 109-105 overtime loss at Indiana.  The Nuggets also lost their previous home game, so we expect a peak performance in this game tonight.  Denver’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form as they’ve averaged 106.8 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field over their last five games.  The Nuggets are 4-4 in their last eight home games, but three of their four losses only came by 1, 3, and 6 points.  Denver has been an ultra competitive team this season, especially when playing playoff-bound teams.  The Nuggets won 106-105 in Toronto back in December, and we expect another close game throughout.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Monday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Boston and Orlando just played on Friday night with the Celtics winning 113-94 on their home court.  That game was much different than the first meeting of the season in Orlando when the Magic won 110-91 after shooting 48.4% (45-93) from the field while out-scoring the Celtics 52-38 inside the paint.  Orlando also had a 54-34 rebounding edge in that game, including 17-9 on the offensive glass.  The game on Friday night was close for the first three quarters before Boston out-scored Orlando 27-17 over the final 12 minutes of the game.  Boston’s bench played well above their level in that game as the second unit combined to score 60 points on 65.6% (21-32) shooting from the field, including 70% (7-10) from three-point range.  It’s highly unlikely Boston’s bench will repeat that performance in tonight’s game, especially with this game coming on the road against the same opponent.      

Orlando has been struggling as of late, but the Magic desperately need to win this game tonight in order to keep pace with Boston for a playoff spot.  Going into Friday’s game, the Magic were treating the 2-game set against the Celtics like playoff games.  “These games, direct where you can pick up a game on a team in front of you, are critical,” said Orlando head coach Scott Skiles.  Orlando came with a poor defensive performance on Friday night, but the Magic are capable of shutting the Celtics down just as they did in the first meeting.  Orlando held Boston to just 40.9% (36-88) shooting from the field and 18.5% (5-27) shooting from three-point land while winning by 19 points on their home court.  This is an ultra-important game for Orlando, and with quick turnaround revenge, we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Sunday night. 

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Orlando has been struggling as of late, but the Magic are in a good spot for a very important game tonight in Boston.  The Magic have had two full days to prepare for this game; one they are treating like a playoff game.  “These games, direct where you can pick up a game on a team in front of you, are critical,” said Orlando head coach Scott Skiles.  “We’re only three out of the playoffs. To pick up a game on a night like tonight would be big for us. We need to put a nice quality win in our belt.”  Orlando already beat Boston this season; the Magic romped in a 110-91 home win back in late-November.  It was one of the Magic’s best performances of the season; they held Boston to just 40.9% (36-88) shooting from the field and 18.5% (5-27) shooting from three-point land.

Boston is playing good basketball right now, but the Celtics have had an easy schedule as of late.  Wins over struggling teams like the Wizards, Suns, and Nuggets don’t mean much at all.  Boston head coach Brad Stevens is concerned with tonight’s matchup, especially after the way the Celtics lost the first meeting.  “When we went down there, we got pounded,” Stevens said.  “The way I look at it, when a team beats you and you played them once, they’re a lot better than you are.”  Boston allowed Orlando to shoot 48.4% (45-93) from the field, and the Magic out-scored the Celtics 52-38 inside the paint.  Orlando also had a 54-34 rebounding edge, including 17-9 on the offensive glass.  Orlando is simply a bad match-up for Boston, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Oklahoma City and Minnesota will play for the third time in 15 days on Wednesday night.  The Thunder won the first two games, but they only beat the Timberwolves by 5 points (101-96) in Minnesota.  The Thunder will play their fourth and final game of their current road trip tonight, and they’ll be doing so on a back-to-back set.  This will also be Oklahoma City’s fourth game in six nights.  The Thunder played in New York last night and they beat the Knicks 128-122 in overtime.  Four guys played 42 minutes or more with all five starters playing 35 minutes or more.  Oklahoma City scored 128 points last night; their third most points of the season after shooting 46.5% (46-99) from the field, 55% (11-20) from three-point land, and 86.2% (25-29) from the free throw line.  After playing a perfect game, and off a grueling overtime, we expect regression from Oklahoma City tonight.

Minnesota returns home off a 114-107 loss in Cleveland on Monday night.  The Timberwolves played much better than expected in that game, especially considering the Cavaliers were in a prime spot after an embarrassing loss in their previous game.  The Timberwolves have played three of their last four games on the road, so a welcomed home game against an opponent in a terrible spot gives Minnesota an excellent shot to steal a win.  The Timberwolves are 2-2 in their last four home games with their two losses only coming by 6 and 5 points.  Minnesota’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form; the Timberwolves have averaged 104.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field over their last five games.  We’ll take the points with Minnesota in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Minnesota is once again having a miserable season despite a roster full of young talent.  The Timberwolves are terribly coached, and that’s a major reason for their non-development.  Minnesota comes into this game off a rare win; they are just 3-15 over their last 18 games.  The Timberwolves have not won back-to-back games since mid-December, and they have little chance to win tonight’s game in Cleveland.  The Timberwolves have played little defense all season; they are giving up 102.8 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land.  On the road, Minnesota is allowing 103.7 points per game.  Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have given up 104.2 points per  game on 47.3% shooting from the field.  Minnesota’s second worst defensive game of the season came at home against Cleveland when the Cavaliers scored 125 points on them; the Timberwolves gave up 129 points to Golden State.

Cleveland fired head coach David Blatt prior to their last home game against Chicago.  The Cavaliers were embarrassed in their first game for Tyronn Lue; they lost 96-83 to the Bulls as 10.5-point home favorites.  Cleveland played their worst offensive home game of the season as they shot just 37.2% (35-94) from the field and 16.7% (4-24) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers also shot just 40.9% (9-22) from the free throw line.  Cleveland’s offense will play much better tonight, especially since they scored 125 in Minnesota earlier this season.  In that game, Cleveland shot 53.1% (43-81) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land.  Cleveland had six players score in double figures in that game, and a repeat performance is likely tonight.  Cleveland is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Monday night.        

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Thunder come into this game on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 8-1 over their last nine games overall.  Oklahoma City has scored 101 points or more in 13 of their last 14 games; they scored 99 points in the lone game they failed to eclipse the century mark.  The Thunder are averaging 107.8 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Oklahoma City will face a Dallas defense that has given up 108 points or more in four of their last six games.  The Thunder have scored 104 points or more in their last seven meetings against Dallas, and there’s no reason to expect anything different in tonight’s game.

Dallas comes into this game off back-to-back overtime wins at home over the Celtics and Timberwolves.  But now the Mavericks are taking a huge step-up in class against Oklahoma City, and their good fortune will run out in this game.  Dallas’ offense is not in good current form; they’ve scored 98 points or less in regulation time over their last five games, and in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Mavericks are only averaging 95.8 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 30.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That’s not good considering Oklahoma City’s defense has allowed just 91 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field and 29.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Dallas is also battling nagging injuries to Dirk Nowitzki and Raymond Felton; both are listed as game-time decisions tonight.  Oklahoma City is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this game on Friday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Memphis hits the road after playing six consecutive home games; the Grizzlies went 5-1 SU in those games, including a 91-84 win over Denver.  Memphis will be playing their first road game in 15 days, and they will be doing so in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  That’s not a good thing, especially for a team that has been cozy and comfy at home for the past two weeks.  The Grizzlies are also playing with a hobbled point guard; Mike Conley is dealing with a lingering achilles injury that has limited his explosiveness.  Conley is a liability on the court, especially on the defensive end against Denver who has two quick guards who can penetrate the lane while looking for easy baskets in transition.  In their last meeting, Memphis only won by 7 points at home despite out-shooting the Nuggets 44.4%-21.1% from three-point land; they were +12 in points from beyond the arc.

Denver will play the fifth game of their 8-game home stand tonight; the Nuggets have alternated wins and losses over their last four games.  Denver comes in off a 110-104 loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night.  The Nuggets’ offense struggled mightily in that game as they only shot 42.2% (35-83) from the field.  Denver’s problem in that game was rebounding as the Thunder grabbed 52 boards, including 16 offensive rebounds.  Denver is 0-13 this season when getting out-rebounded, but the Nuggets should dominate the glass tonight.  In the last meeting in Memphis, the Nuggets held a 59-43 rebounding edge, including a 19-11 edge on the offensive glass.  The Grizzlies have historically struggled in Denver; Memphis is 3-26 SU their last 29 visits to the Mile High City.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

Atlanta and Portland match-up extremely well for a high-scoring game.  The teams have gone Over the total in three straight meetings, and we expect more of the same tonight.  In their earlier season meeting, the Hawks and Trail Blazers combined to score 203 points despite terrible shooting.  The teams combined to take 158 shots from the field, including 53 attempts from three-point land.  Atlanta shot 48.1% (37-77) from the field, but just 31% (9-29) from three-point land.  The Hawks scored a lot of easy baskets with 40 of their total points coming inside the paint.  Atlanta’s offense comes into this game in good current form as they’ve averaged 103.4 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.  

Portland shot the ball terribly from three-point land in that earlier game against Atlanta.  The Trail Blazers hit just 20.8% (5-24) from beyond the arc, and they added just 16 points from the free-throw line.  Portland also scored a lot of easy baskets as 50 of their total points came from inside the paint.  The Trail Blazers’ offense is in excellent current form; they’ve averaged 105.4 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  These two teams scored 203 points without great shooting and limited free-throw attempts.  With normal shooting and additional trips to the line, we expect a high-scoring game between the Hawks and Trail Blazers on Wednesday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Detroit is just 1-3 over their last four games, but the opponents they played had a lot to do with that losing record; the Pistons lost to the Spurs, Grizzlies, and Bulls.  But they also beat the Warriors in between, and the Memphis loss came on a buzzer beater, so the 1-3 record looks worse than it actually is.  Detroit is 22-19 on the season, and they already beat Houston 116-105 earlier this season.  The Pistons’ offense is in good current form as they are averaging 103.4 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Detroit holds a significant defensive edge in this game as well.  The Pistons are holding opponents to 99.5 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land.  To compare, the Rockets are allowing 105.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.

Houston returns home off back-to-back games in Los Angeles against the Lakers and Clippers.  The Rockets split those games with their loss being a 140-132 defeat in overtime to the Clippers.  Houston trailed that game by 14 points going into the fourth quarter before rallying back to tie the game.  But that game took a toll on Houston, and they won’t have much energy left for tonight’s game.  The Rockets may also be without point guard Patrick Beverley who re-injured his ankle against the Clippers.  He missed shootaround this morning, and most reports say he will miss this game.  Houston’s defense is giving up 104.5 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  Detroit’s offense matches-up extremely well against Houston’s defense, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points on Wednesday night.

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Boston has played excellent basketball in their last three games.  The Celtics are 3-0 SU and ATS in those games while scoring a total of 339 points.  Prior to their last three wins, Boston was 1-6 SU and ATS over their previous seven games.  The Celtics are averaging 110.2 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Boston will face a Dallas defense that has given up 108 points or more in three of their last four games.  The Celtics lost 106-102 to Dallas at home earlier this season, but the Celtics blew an 18-point lead in that game.  The Mavericks out-shot the Celtics 51.4%-41.3% from the field and 35%-30.8% from three-point land and still only won the game by 4 points.   

Dallas played on Sunday in San Antonio and the Mavericks got embarrassed in a 112-83 blowout loss.  The Mavericks will now play on a back-to-back set while also playing their third game in four nights.  Dallas just played four games against Cleveland, Oklahoma City, Chicago, and San Antonio.  This is a natural letdown spot for a veteran team like Dallas, especially since they are playing a young team like Boston.  Head coach Rick Carlisle said this prior to Dallas’ 4-game gauntlet: “An extremely difficult schedule, there’s no doubt about that. This is the kind of stretch that challenges a group.”  The Mavericks failed miserably by going 1-3, so it’s hard to imagine Dallas being at their best for this game.  We’ll back Boston in this game on Monday night.    

9* Play CELTICS (-).

Portland has played excellent basketball in their last three games.  The Trail Blazers upset the Thunder 115-110 as home underdogs last Sunday night, they beat the Jazz 99-85 on Wednesday night, and last night they cashed a Best Bet winner for us in their 116-104 win over Brooklyn.  The Trail Blazers are averaging 107.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland will face a terrible Philadelphia defense that is in terrible current form.  The Sixers have given up 108.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland is playing full of confidence right now, and they are catching the Sixers at the perfect time.   

Philadelphia is having a miserable season; they come into this game with an ugly 4-37 record.  The Sixers just played four home games against playoff-bound teams; Hawks, Raptors, Cavaliers, and Bulls.  Philadelphia gave tremendous effort in their last two games, especially their last against Chicago.  The Sixers led that game 62-46 at the half, but they ultimately lost 115-111 in overtime.  Five players scored in double figures; that has been a rare occurrence for the Sixers this season.  That’s a game that will linger with Philadelphia, especially considering how their season is going.  Portland is the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Trail Blazers in this game on Saturday night.    

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

Portland has played excellent basketball in their last two games.  The Trail Blazers upset the Thunder 115-110 as home underdogs last Sunday night, and they beat the Jazz 99-85 on Wednesday night.  The impressive part about those two wins is that Portland was able to play two completely different styles of basketball; the Oklahoma City game was played at a quick pace while the Utah game was a slow, half-court grinder.  Prior to their last two wins, Portland had lost three consecutive games.  But their opponents had a lot to do with those losses; the Warriors, Clippers, and Grizzlies all defeated Portland.  The Trail Blazers now travel to Brooklyn full of confidence, and they are catching the Nets at the perfect time.     

Brooklyn has has a miserable season; the Nets come into this game with an ugly 11-28 record.  Their head coach and general manager got fired earlier this week, and in their first game after, the Nets got embarrassed at home by the Spurs by 27 points (106-79).  Brooklyn responded in their next game as they beat the New York Knicks 110-104 as 3.5-point home underdogs on Wednesday night.  Brooklyn shot 52.3% (45-86) from the field and 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land in that game.  It was a complete team effort as six players scored in double figures; that has been a rare occurrence for the Nets this season.  Brooklyn is also playing with a limited lineup because of injuries, so it’s highly unlikely they can repeat their performance from the Knicks game.  Portland is the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Trail Blazers in this game on Friday night.    

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

Sacramento hits the road after playing three consecutive home games; the Kings went just 1-2 SU in those games, including last night’s 109-97 loss to the Pelicans.  Sacramento must now hit the road, and play on a back-to-back set while playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Kings will face a Utah team that plays at an extremely slow pace while playing excellent team defense.  Sacramento has struggled mightily when held to less than 100 points this season.  In fact, the Kings are just 2-12 SU when scoring less than 100 points this season with their two wins coming by a combined 8 points.  Their average loss when held to less than 100 points has come by 11 points per game.  Sacramento is just 1-5 on the road when held to less than 100 points with those losses coming by 9.6 points per game.

Utah failed for us last night in their 99-85 loss in Portland, but we have no hesitation in coming right back with the Jazz for the same reasons.  Utah is playing much better now that Rudy Gobert is back on the court.  Gobert missed a month of action which totaled 18 games; the Jazz went just 7-11 in those games.  Since Gobert has returned to the starting lineup, Utah is 2-1 with their wins coming by 12 and 15 points.  The biggest difference with Gobert on the court has been the play of the Utah defense.  During that stretch without Gobert, the Jazz gave up 101 points per game while allowing 103 points or more eight times in their eleven losses.  In their last three games, Utah has given up a total of 256 points.  The Jazz are a perfect 2-0 at home when playing off a road loss the night before; Utah won those games by scores of 106-85 and 109-96.  We’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Utah is playing much better now that Rudy Gobert is back on the court.  Gobert missed a month of action which totaled 18 games; the Jazz went just 7-11 in those games.  Since Gobert has returned to the starting lineup, Utah is a perfect 2-0 with their wins coming by 12 and 15 points.  The biggest difference with Gobert on the court has been the play of the Utah defense.  During that stretch without Gobert, the Jazz gave up 101 points per game while allowing 103 points or more eight times in their eleven losses.  In the last two games, Utah gave up just 83 points to Miami and 74 points to the Los Angeles Lakers.  “It’s great, man,” Trey Burke said of Gobert’s return.  “He’s one of our defensive specialists, obviously an anchor back there. If a guy gets beat he can come over and clean it up. His rebounding ability and versatility. It’s great to have a guy like that back.”

Portland comes into this game off a 115-110 upset win over Oklahoma City as 7.5-point home underdogs.  The Trail Blazers have scored 223 points in their last two games despite shooting a terrible 40.8% (80-196) from the field.  Portland got the majority of their scoring from three-point land where they shot 40.3% (31-77), and from the free throw line where they converted 32 of their 42 attempts.  Portland will now face a team that plays at a slow pace while playing excellent team defense.  The Trail Blazers have struggled mightily when held to less than 100 points this season.  Portland is just 1-14 SU when scoring less than 100 points this season with their lone win coming by just 4 points as 9-point underdogs at Sacramento.  The Jazz will stifle the Portland offense with Gobert back on the court, so we’ll take Utah plus the points on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

San Antonio is one of the best teams in the NBA, but they come into this game off a blowout win in Brooklyn last night.  The Spurs beat the Nets 106-79 on Monday night in a game they virtually led from start to finish.  San Antonio shot a terrific 53.7% (44-82) from the field while eleven players scored at least 2 points in the game.  Despite the 27-point margin of victory, San Antonio had three starters play 24 minutes or more.  Head coach Gregg Popovich is known for resting his key players on the second night of back-to-back sets, so it wouldn’t be a shocker to see some guys sit this game out.  This is also just the second time all season in which the Spurs are playing a back-to-back road set; their last came way back in early November in games #3 and #4 when they beat the Knicks in a 94-84 lethargically played game.

Detroit comes into this game with two full days of rest, so they are the fresher team.  The Pistons are also in excellent current form as they’ve won three consecutive games, and four of their last five games overall.  Detroit has played terrific basketball at home where they are 13-5 this season while averaging 104.9 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  Detroit’s defense has been outstanding over their last five games; the Pistons held their opponents to just 91.2 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Dallas and Milwaukee just played twelve days ago with the Mavericks winning 103-93 at home.  That game was played at a quick pace as the teams combined to take 163 shots from the field, including 36 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting wasn’t all that good either, but the teams still combined to score 196 points.  Dallas shot just 45.2% (38-84) from the field.  The Mavericks only scored 17 points from the free-throw line after getting 26 attempts, so they left 9 free points on the court.  Dallas did well in transition as they scored 19 points on the fast-break.  The Mavericks also scored a lot of easy baskets with 46 of their total points coming inside the paint.  Dallas’ offense comes into this game in terrific current form as they’ve scored 100 points or more in six of their last eight games. 

Milwaukee shot the ball terribly from three-point land in that earlier game against Dallas.  The Bucks hit just 28.6% (4-14) from beyond the arc, and they added 13 points on just 15 attempts from the free-throw line.  Milwaukee also scored a lot of easy baskets as 40 of their total points came from inside the paint.  The Bucks’ offense is in excellent current form; they’ve averaged 108.4 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 44.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  “We’re not playing any defense,” sidelined head coach Jason Kidd said.  “We’re just focused on shooting and scoring the ball.”  These two teams just scored 196 points without great shooting and limited free-throw attempts.  With normal shooting and additional trips to the line, we expect a high-scoring game between the Mavericks and Bucks on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Charlotte comes into this game off four consecutive losses.  However, the Hornets lost to the Warriors, Thunder, Raptors, and Clippers.  Those are four of the best teams in the league, so the losses weren’t unexpected.  Charlotte had a needed day off yesterday, and since they are taking a monumental step-down in class for this game against Phoenix, we expect a strong effort from the Hornets.  Charlotte’s offense has been terrific this season; the Hornets are averaging 101.8 points per game.  Head coach Steve Clifford likes how his offense is playing: “Offensively we still have enough to win”, Clifford said.  “The Warriors are a terrific defensive team and we still scored 101. That’s more than enough to win.”  That will be the case tonight, especially against the Suns who are mired in a wicked scoring slump.

Phoenix is an absolute mess of a team right now.  The Suns are just 4-16 over their last twenty games.  They fired two assistant coaches, Eric Bledsoe is out with injury, and Markieff Morris got suspended for actions towards head coach Jeff Hornacek.  Morris then voiced his dislike of the team owner and the organization.  The Suns are an extremely fragile team right now, and they are spiraling out of control.  Phoenix has been non-competitive in their recent losses while their defense has given up 101 points or more in eight of their last nine games.  Phoenix is averaging just 95.6 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Charlotte is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Hornets in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play HORNETS (-).

Cleveland is one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but they come into this game off their best and most complete game of the season.  The Cavaliers beat the Toronto Raptors 122-100 on Monday night in a game they virtually led from start to finish.  Cleveland scored a season-high 122 points after shooting an incredible 55.4% (41-74) from the field and 51.5% (17-33) from three-point land.  Cleveland also connected on 88.5% (23-26) of their free throws.  That offensive performance came out of the blue considering the Cavaliers’ offense was mired in a recent slump.  Over their previous five games, Cleveland was shooting just 39.7% from the field and 30.4% from three-point land.

Washington comes into this game off an ugly 97-75 home loss to Miami on Sunday night.  The Wizards scored a season-low 75 points in that game after shooting just 34.1% (31-91) from the field and an embarrassing 13.8% (4-29) from three-point land.  Washington only got to the free throw line a total of 13 times in that game, and that resulted in just 9 points from the stripe.  Washington has had two full days off since that terrible performance, and that has allowed the team to get a bit healthier as Nene is expected to return tonight.  The Wizards beat the Cavaliers in Cleveland 97-85 earlier this season because of their small-ball style of play; they’ll use it once again tonight.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Washington plus the points on Wednesday night.

9* Play WIZARDS (+).

Toronto comes into this game off a home loss to the Chicago Bulls on Sunday afternoon.  The Raptors got out-scored by 8 points in the fourth quarter, and they ultimately lost by 2 points.  Off that disappointing result, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight, especially since Toronto has played well in the second night of back-to-back games this season.  The Raptors are just 3-4 SU on back-to-back sets, but three of the four losses have come by 5 points or less.  Toronto plays at a slow pace, and they combine that slow tempo with the 11th best defense in terms of efficiency.  Toronto’s defense is holding opponents to just 96.9 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Toronto also possesses a lock-down defender in DeMarre Carroll; he held LeBron James to just 37.5% (6-16) shooting in the first meeting.  

Cleveland is one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but they haven't been much better than Toronto this season.  The Cavaliers come into this game after playing four consecutive also-rans; the Trail Blazers, Suns, Nuggets, and Magic.  But Cleveland lost to Portland, and they only beat Phoenix and Denver by a combined 10 points.  The Cavaliers have been a dead even team over their last five games as they’ve allowed and given up 91.4 points per game.  Cleveland’s offense is in terrible current from as they are only shooting 39.7% from the field and 30.4% from three-point land over their last five games.  Toronto plays a similar style as Cleveland, so the Cavaliers will have a hard time winning this game by margin.  The Raptors are 10-3 ATS as underdogs this season, so we’ll take the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Philadelphia has been a different team since acquiring point guard Ish Smith in a trade with New Orleans.  The 76ers are 2-2 SU over their last four games, and since Smith has joined the team, Philadelphia’s two losses have come by just 4 and 9 points.  Philadelphia’s chairman of basketball operations Jerry Colangelo had this to say recently: “There’s a different feeling about the team right now.  They really believe they have a chance to win every game they’re going out to play now.  It’s amazing what one addition can make.  In this particular case, Ish has been a great, great addition in terms of raising the bar for all the players.”  Philadelphia played on the same court last night against the Lakers, so they’ve had no travel associated with this game which makes the back-to-back set much easier.

Los Angeles returns home on a 5-game winning streak.  It was the first time in franchise history that the Clippers swept a 5-game road trip.  They completed a trip while playing in four different time zones in six days.  Los Angeles has also been without Blake Griffin as well, so their recent production has come as a surprise.  The Clippers are in a bad scheduling and situational spot tonight after a record breaking trip and just one day off since returning home.  The opponent doesn’t help either, and the fact the Clippers will have three full days off after this game makes it likely they’ll just go thru the motions in this game.  We’ll take the big points with Philadelphia in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play 76ERS (+).

Los Angeles comes into this game on a 4-game winning streak, and three of those four games have come on the road.  The Clippers were technically the road team against the Lakers, but that’s essentially a home game.  Los Angeles’ road trip has been quirky as they started in Utah last Saturday night, played in Washington on Monday night, and then they played in Charlotte last night.  Now they’ll complete the trip in New Orleans tonight while playing in their fourth different time zone in six days; this will also be the Clippers third game in four nights.  Los Angeles has been without Blake Griffin as well, so their recent production is a bit of a surprise.  The Clippers are in a bad scheduling and situational spot tonight after scoring a season-high 122 points last night.  Los Angeles had six players score 11 points or more while shooting 52.1% (37-71) from the field and 50% (15-30) from three-point land.  The Clippers also hit 80.5% (33-41) from the free throw line.  Off such a perfect performance, we expect regression tonight.     

New Orleans has played much better basketball at home than on the road this season.  The Pelicans are 7-6 at home and just 3-15 on the road.  New Orleans returns home off a blowout loss in Orlando, and with two days to prepare for this game, we expect a peak performance by the Pelicans.  New Orleans is finally healthy after playing the early season with a limited team.  The Pelicans are essentially playing .500 basketball (9-10) after beginning the season at 1-11.  New Orleans is averaging 108.9 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Clippers give up 103.1 points per game on the road, so the Pelicans will have offensive success.  We’ll lay the points with New Orleans in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Cleveland comes into this game off back-to-back losses.  The Cavaliers lost at Golden State on Christmas Day, and they lost the following night in Portland by 29 points (105-79).  That blowout loss is easily excusable after the spotlight close loss to the Warriors.  Cleveland now comes into tonight’s game in Phoenix off a day of rest, and we fully expect a peak performance in this game.  “I think the day off yesterday, everybody getting off their feet, kind of refocus and regather themselves I think can help us tonight,” LeBron James said.  Cleveland finally has all of their key pieces back on the court, and off an embarrassing loss to the Trail Blazers, the Cavaliers are primed to blowout a team that is sinking to the bottom pretty quickly.

Phoenix is an absolute mess of a team right now.  The Suns are just 4-11 over their last fifteen games, and they just fired two assistant coaches over the weekend.  Phoenix also lost their best player, Eric Bledsoe, to a torn meniscus for at least six weeks.  Markieff Morris is suspended for throwing a towel at head coach Jeff Hornacek.  The Suns are an extremely fragile team right now, and they are spiraling out of control.  Phoenix has been non-competitive in their recent losses as well with six losses coming by 10 points or more.  The Suns have been held to 96 points or less in three of their last four games.  Cleveland is allowing just 95.3 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and 33.2% shooting from three-point land.  Phoenix will have a difficult time scoring in this game, especially since the Cavaliers are in a focused spot.  We’ll lay the points with Cleveland in this game on Monday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Philadelphia and Phoenix have both had miserable seasons so far.  And with this game being played the night after Christmas, we expect a fast-paced, wide open game with minimal defensive effort.  Philadelphia’s offense plays at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA, and their tempo should only get faster with the reacquisition of point guard Ish Smith who played for the 76ers last season.  Smith should give a nice boost to Philadelphia’s offense, especially tonight against a Phoenix defense that is in terrible current form.  The Suns have allowed 101 points or more in nine of their last ten games.  Over their last five games, Phoenix has allowed 106.2 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.

Phoenix plays at the third quickest tempo in the NBA.  The Suns’ offense comes into this game off three consecutive poor offensive games at home.  But against a horrendous Philadelphia defense, we expect the Suns to breakout in a major way.  Overall this season, Phoenix is averaging 105.7 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Philadelphia has played little defense lately, and in fact, the 76ers have given up 100 points or more in ten of their last eleven games.  Over their last five games, Philadelphia is allowing 111.8 points per game on 52.4% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a high-scoring game between the 76ers and Suns on Saturday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Cleveland and Golden State will play for the first time since last year’s Finals which the Warriors won in six games.  That series was basically a team versus one (LeBron James) as the Cavaliers were without Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Timofey Mozgov because of injury.  Inman Shumpert also played with a groin injury, and his defense was clearly down a notch because of it.  Cleveland will have all of their key pieces on the court for this game, and it’s clearly a game they’ve had circled.  “It’s an exciting game,” head coach Dave Blatt said.  “I know everybody is looking forward to it. The significance of the game. There isn’t anybody on our team that doesn’t remember the Finals. I know we’re going down there finally with a full roster.”  Cleveland comes into this game in excellent current form; the Cavs are on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 11-4 over their last 15 games.

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their incredible 27-1 record into this game.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in 27 of 28 games this season.  However, this game against the Cavs presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  After losing their first game of the season, the Warriors have played three teams that have been struggling mightily.  Golden State had little resistance in those games, and now they’ll be forced to play their A-game against one of the elite teams in the NBA.  LeBron gave Golden State all they wanted all by himself in the Finals, but now he has help all over the court.  We’ll take Cleveland plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play CAVALIERS (+).

Denver is in rebuilding mode this season after letting some of their core veterans go over the summer.  The Nuggets weren’t projected to be much, but they’ve overachieved so far this season.  Denver comes into this game with an 11-17 record which is surprising considering their season wins total was only lined at 26.5 prior to the start of the year.  The Nuggets hosted the Lakers last night and they inexplicably blew a 21-point lead to the worst team in the NBA.  Denver has now lost three straight games while allowing a total of 338 points in those games.  The Nuggets are now playing the following night on the road off a home game, and they are just 1-3 SU in this situation with the three losses coming by 15, 24, and 11 points.  That 24-point loss came on Phoenix back in November.  Denver is also playing their third game in four nights, and they have a shorthanded team with Emmanuel Mudiay, Danilo Gallinari, Jusuf Nurkic out while Jameer Nelson and Gary Harris are battling injuries.             

Phoenix returns home off an ugly 110-89 road loss at Utah on Monday night.  The Suns have been strong when playing at home off a road loss this season; they are 3-1 SU with the three wins coming by 21, 14, and 16 points.  Overall this season, the Suns’ offense is averaging 106.3 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Phoenix will face a poor Denver defense that has given up 109.2 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Phoenix already owns two wins over Denver by a combined 31 points this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Suns in this game on Wednesday night. 

9* Play SUNS (-).

Dallas played last night in Toronto and they lost 103-99.  However, that game was nowhere as close as the final score indicates.  Dallas never led in the game, and they trailed by 18 points at one time.  The Mavericks were lethargic throughout the game, and they simply played with little energy.  Head coach Rick Carlisle benched his starters in the second half and let the second unit play the majority of the game.  Carlisle ripped into his team after the game: “That first half was embarrassing,” Carlisle said.  “Look, if it’s going to be like that, these guys aren’t going to be Mavericks very long. I can promise you that.”  Dallas went into that game with 3 full days of rest, so they will be ready to bring their best effort tonight despite this being a back-to-back road set.

Brooklyn is one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Nets come into this game with an 8-20 record, and they are just 1-5 over their last six games.  Brooklyn won 105-102 in Chicago as 10.5-point underdogs on Monday night.  The Nets won that game despite shooting just 45.7% (43-94) from the field, 35% (7-20) from three point land, and making just 12 free throws.  So that win wasn’t a direct result of a good game by Brooklyn, but instead a result of a terrible game played by the Bulls.  Brooklyn’s defense is in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 100 points or more in six straight games, and in nine of their last ten games overall.  Dallas is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Mavericks on Wednesday night.      

9* Play MAVERICKS (-).

Portland came into this season as a shell of the team that won 51 games last season.  Their season wins total was virtually cut in half for 2015.  With four of their five starters from last season gone, the Trail Blazers were starting from scratch.  Damian Lillard was the lone leftover from last year’s starting five.  The Trail Blazers have mostly been a two-man team this season with Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They are averaging over 71 minutes per game and 44.7 points per game between them.  Both will miss tonight’s game in Atlanta after getting injured yesterday in Miami.  The Trail Blazers will not resemble a NBA team tonight, especially since they’ll be playing without a true point guard and only have eight available players.  Portland is playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their fourth consecutive road game in six days. 

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back road wins, and they’ve won three consecutive games after a 3-game losing streak preceded.  The Hawks’ offense comes into this game in terrific current form; Atlanta has scored 339 points in their last three games.  Atlanta shot 52.5% (128-244) from the field in those games, and their scoring ways will continue against a Portland defense that has given up 107.4 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This line has not been adjusted nearly enough for the absence of Lillard and McCollum, so we’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Monday night.

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Minnesota is playing excellent basketball right now.  The Timberwolves have won their last two games after going 1-8 over their previous nine games.  Despite losing on the scoreboard, Minnesota was quite competitive in seven of those eight losses.  The Timberwolves lost those seven games by 8 points or less, and that’s meaningful since the pointspread on tonight’s game is posted at +8.  Overall, Minnesota is an incredible 15-2-2 ATS based on tonight’s line in their last nineteen games.  Minnesota has also played better on the road where they are 7-6 compared to 4-10 at home this season.  The Timberwolves own a +3.4 point differential away from while going 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.

Boston comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Celtics have lost three consecutive games, and four of their last five games overall.  Boston’s defense has been awful as they’ve allowed 106.8 points per game over their last five games.  The Celtics have given up 228 points on 47.6% (79-166) shooting from the field and 36.6% (15-41) shooting from three-point land in their last two games.  Boston has sent their opponents to the free throw line a whopping 72 times in their last two games; that’s a direct correlation to poor defensive form.  Boston has won just one of their last seven games by more than 5 points, so they’ve haven’t been winning by margin either.  We’ll take the points with Minnesota in this game on Monday night.      

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Memphis has changed their philosophy to mimic the current state of the NBA.  The Grizzlies have changed their lineup, so they can play small ball and match the style of play that most teams employ.  “It’s more equal opportunity,” Mike Conley said.  “We’re going to be aggressive.”  Head coach Dave Joerger replaced Zach Randolph and Tony Allen in the starting lineup with Matt Barnes and Courtney Lee in order to get more pace and shooting on the court.  “It’s going to be for a while. Our team’s changing.” Joerger said.  “It’s a different opportunity to do different things.”  In their three games since the change, Memphis has scored 294 points while shooting 50.2% (116-231) from the field.  With the new up-tempo offense, the Memphis defense has struggled; they allowed 101.6 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Dallas comes into this game off an embarrassing 26-point loss in Indiana on Wednesday night.  The Mavericks had their worst offensive game of the season as they scored a season-low 81 points on 36.7% (33-90) shooting from the field and 24.2% (8-33) shooting from three-point land.  Prior to that poor offensive showing, Dallas had scored 104 points or more in four of their previous six games.  Overall this season, the Mavericks are averaging 100.8 points per game.  Dallas has played terrific offense at home recently as they’ve averaged 103.3 points per game in their last three home games.  Dallas’ defense has been in terrible form; they’ve allowed 94 points or more in nine straight games, and 100 points or more in six of those games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Grizzlies and Mavericks on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Memphis has changed their philosophy to mimic the current state of the NBA.  The Grizzlies have changed their lineup, so they can play small ball and match the style of play that most teams employ.  Head coach Dave Joerger replaced Zach Randolph and Tony Allen in the starting lineup with Matt Barnes and Courtney Lee in order to get more pace and shooting on the court.  “It’s going to be for a while. Our team’s changing.” Joerger said.  “It’s a different opportunity to do different things.”  In their two games since the change, Memphis has scored 209 points while shooting 54.2% (84-155) from the field.  With the new up-tempo offense, the Memphis defense is going to struggle, and they’ve been in terrible form recently, allowing 107 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 39.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  

Chicago is playing at a much quicker pace this season under new head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Bulls play at the seventh quickest tempo in the NBA.  That style of play will only be amplified tonight against a Memphis team that made recent changes in their style of play.  Chicago’s offense scored 115 points in their last game, and they’ve scored 98 points or more in four of their last five games.  The Bulls have played terrific offense at home recently as they’ve averaged 98.7 points per game in their last six home games.  Chicago’s defense is giving up 97.5 points per game this season, and they are vulnerable to fast-paced offenses.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Grizzlies and Bulls on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Denver and Minnesota just played last Friday night with the Nuggets winning 111-108 at home in overtime.  The Timberwolves actually led that game by 18-points in the second half before melting down and losing in overtime.  Denver was in an excellent scheduling spot for that game as they had two full days of rest prior, and they were off an embarrassing loss in their previous home game.  Still, they were down 18 points despite Minnesota playing in overtime in their previous game.  The Nuggets played last night and they beat Houston 114-108.  However, four guys played 32 minutes or more with two guys playing 37 minutes or more.  Denver has now scored 225 points in their last two games while only shooting 47.6% (80-168) from the field and 35.8% (19-53) from three-point land.  Denver lived at the free throw line in those two home games (46-58), but now on the road they cannot expect to get a favorable whistle.

Minnesota returns home off back-to-back road losses, including the overtime defeat in Denver.  The players are looking to make amends for that 18-point blown lead loss, and tonight’s quick turnaround scheduling spot provides them with that opportunity.  “We know what we did wrong,” Andrew Wiggins said.  “We know how the players want to play, their style of play. So we’re well aware. We’re prepared for the game. We plan on winning this game, so it will feel good after the win.”  Minnesota’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form; the Timberwolves have averaged 108.2 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Minnesota in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Washington is playing at a very quick pace this season, and in fact, the Wizards play at the fifth quickest tempo in the NBA.  That style of play will only be amplified tonight against a Memphis team that made some recent changes in their style of play.  Washington’s offense is in excellent current form; the Wizards have averaged 108 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Washington’s defense has been horrendous during their last five games; they’ve allowed 109.2 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 45% shooting from three-point land.  The Wizards’ defense has been terrible on the road all season; they give up 104.1 points per game away from home.    

Memphis has changed their philosophy to mimic the current state of the NBA.  The Grizzlies have changed their lineup, so they can play small ball and match the style of play that most teams employ.  Head coach Dave Joerger replaced Zach Randolph and Tony Allen in the starting lineup with Matt Barnes and Courtney Lee in order to get more pace and shooting on the court.  “It’s going to be for a while. Our team’s changing.” Joerger said.  “It’s a different opportunity to do different things.”  Memphis shot 51.9% from the field in their first game with the new lineup, and they scored 78 points in the first three quarters before bogging down over the final 12 minutes.  With the new up-tempo offense, the Memphis defense is going to struggle, and they’ve been in terrible form recently, allowing 106.6 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Wizards and Grizzlies on Monday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their perfect 24-0 record into Milwaukee tonight.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in every game this season.  However, tonight’s game against the Bucks presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  The Warriors come into this game off a double overtime win in Boston last night.  Golden State had three players play 43 minutes or more while two guys, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, played 46 minutes or more.  The Warriors were without Klay Thompson (ankle), and he’ll be a game-time decision for tonight’s game.  Golden State is also playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their seventh and final game of their long road trip.  This is simply a terrible scheduling and situational spot for the Warriors.     

Milwaukee comes into this game with a disappointing 9-15 record on the season.  However, the Bucks have played significantly better basketball at home where they are 7-5 SU compared to just 2-10 on the road.  Milwaukee returns home off a road loss in Toronto last night, and since they also lost their previous home game, this is a terrific bounce back spot.  The Bucks have excelled when playing at home off a road loss this season.  Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0 SU, including 3-0 ATS as home underdogs in those games.  The Bucks beat Cleveland and Detroit in this situation, so they’ve shown they can beat some pretty good teams.  We’ll take the points with Milwaukee in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play BUCKS (+).

Portland and Phoenix played twice earlier this season.  Both of those games went Under the total, but tonight’s game has a posted total that is 4.5 points more.  The first two meetings were lined at 204 and 204.5, and despite low-scoring games, the oddsmakers have increased tonight’s total.  That’s a clear indication that they expect a higher-scoring game tonight.  Portland’s offense is in good current form; the Trail Blazers are averaging 106.4 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland’s defense has been terrible over the same stretch; they are giving up 104.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land.   

Phoenix plays at the quickest tempo in the NBA.  The Suns’ offense comes into this game in terrific current form.  Phoenix is averaging 106.2 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Suns have scored 103 points or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  Phoenix has played little defense lately, and in fact, the Suns have given up 101 points or more in seven of their last nine games.  Over their last five games, Phoenix is allowing 107.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 39.5% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Trail Blazers and Suns on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.