New York comes into this game on a 3-game winning streak, and we expect them to extend that to four consecutive wins.  The Jets will own a major edge at the line of scrimmage, and that will be the deciding factor in this game.  New York running back Chris Ivory is in excellent form, averaging 4.7 yards per rush in his last five games.  Ivory will face a Dallas defense that gave up 195 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per rush last week in Green Bay.  Overall, the Cowboys are giving up 130 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush at home this season.  Dallas ranks 26th in rush defense efficiency, so New York will lean heavily on Ivory in this game.            

Dallas returns home off a 28-7 loss in Green Bay last week.  The Cowboys are now playing on a short week for the second straight time; they played the Packers off a Monday night game.  This is a poor situational and scheduling spot for Dallas, and the bad matchup just makes things more difficult.  Offense will be hard to come by for Dallas as they are only averaging 17.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Cowboys have scored just 40 total points in their last three games.  New York’s defense is only allowing 19.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New York is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Saturday night.           

9* Play JETS (-).

Tampa Bay and St. Louis haven’t been lighting-up opponents this season, but tonight’s matchup gives both teams a nice opportunity to breakout offensively.  The Bucs will lean heavily on their running game, especially since the Rams’ run defense has been torched over the last few weeks.  St. Louis has allowed 375 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per rush in their last three games with two of those games coming against teams that have had little success running the ball this season; the Lions and Cardinals.  Tampa Bay features running back Doug Martin who only had 11 carries last week because the Bucs trailed New Orleans by double digits for the majority of the game.  Martin will carry the workload in this game; he ranks second in the NFL with 1,214 rushing yards on the season.  Tampa Bay has also played better offense on the road where they are averaging 24.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.

St. Louis’ offense has played well below average in the majority of their games, and that led to a new offensive coordinator.  Rob Boras called his first game last week, and the Rams responded with a win while scoring 21 points.  St. Louis will have a tough time running on a stout Tampa Bay rush defense that only allows 94.1 yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush.  That means we expect quarterback Case Keenum to throw the ball a lot in this game, especially since the Bucs have been vulnerable to passing attacks all season.  Tampa Bay has allowed 20 points or more in three of their last four road games, so the Rams’ offense will have success since they’ve scored 21 points or more in four home games this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Buccaneers and Rams in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

New York comes into this game off a pair of terrible offensive games; two weeks ago they only scored 14 points in Washington, and last week they only scored 20 points at home against the Jets.  The Giants have scored 20 points or more in ten of their twelve games this season.  Overall, New York is averaging 25.6 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game.  The Giants will face a poor Miami defense that is giving up 25 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New York has a strong passing attack under QB Eli Manning, and he will face a Miami secondary that has given up 24 passing touchdowns this season while allowing opposing quarterbacks a 16/5 touchdown/interception ratio over their last seven games.

Miami’s offense has also played well below average in their last couple of games, especially at home.  The Dolphins have scored just 29 total points in their last two home games, but there are reasons to expect a much better offensive output in tonight’s game against New York.  The Giants’ defense has given up 20 points or more in ten of their twelve games this season.  Overall, New York’s defense is allowing 24.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Giants have been worse on the road where they are giving up 25.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Dolphins in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

New England comes into this game off back-to-back losses after opening the season with ten consecutive wins.  The Patriots should have won in Denver two weeks ago, but they blew a 21-7 fourth quarter lead and fell in overtime.  Last week, New England played a sloppy game after going up 14-0; they gave up three defensive and special teams touchdowns combined.  Off such a poor performance, the Patriots are primed for a peak performance tonight.  It’s true New England comes into this game at less than 100% with multiple offensive injuries, but head coach Bill Belichick is the master at devising a game plan to attack the opponents’ weakness.  The Patriots are the best scheming team in the NFL, and Belichick also knows Houston head coach Bill O’Brien and quarterback Brian Hoyer extremely well as both were with the Patriots for multiple seasons. 

Houston’s 4-game winning streak was snapped last week in Buffalo.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Bills in that game, and we’ll fade the Texans once again in this game.  Houston beat Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, they beat a New York Jets team that was on a 1-3 slide, and they beat New Orleans who is just 1-5 on the road this season.  Houston also won at Cincinnati, but that was a phony win as they only had 256 yards of total offense while scoring just 3 total points thru the first three quarters of the game.  The four wins looked good on the scoreboard, but Houston’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Texans only average 21.1 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Patriots are only giving up 20.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 23 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll back New England in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Dallas was is in a terrific situational and scheduling spot for their game in Washington last Monday night.  The Cowboys were off an embarrassing 33-14 home loss to Carolina on Thanksgiving day, and they were catching the Redskins in a flat spot off a win as a home underdog.  The Cowboys were also undervalued after losing quarterback Tony Romo in their previous game.  Dallas had extra time to prepare Matt Cassel, and he simply managed the game while leading the Cowboys to a 19-16 win.  Dallas had to hit the road on a short week, so the Cowboys are now the team in the poor scheduling spot.  Offense will be hard to come by for Dallas as the Green Bay defense is only giving up 18.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home this season.

Green Bay returns home off a miraculous win in Detroit last Thursday night.  The Packers won on a 61-yard Hail Mary after the game was extended for one play after a defensive penalty.  Green Bay was given a boost by that win, and since they have lost two consecutive home games, we expect the Packers to come with a peak performance in this game.  The Packers have a monumental edge at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers versus Matt Cassel in this game.  Rodgers has quietly amassed a 25/6 touchdown/interception ratio this season, and he will face a middling Dallas secondary that hasn’t faced a potent passing offense since October.  In those games, the Cowboys’ defense gave up 83 total points to Drew Brees, Eli manning, and Tom Brady.  Green Bay is in a terrific spot and catching Dallas at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Packers in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play PACKERS (-).

Pittsburgh is 3-1 over their last four games after going 2-3 in their previous five games.  Aside from the games quarterback Ben Roethlisberger missed, the Steelers’ offense has been fantastic this season; they’ve scored 30 points or more in their last four games.  Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 25.9 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Steelers have played just two road games with Roethlisberger under center this season.  They scored 30 points on 538 yards of offense at Seattle, and they scored 21 points on 464 yards of offense at New England.  The common thing about those two games is that they were both played on artificial turf; Pittsburgh’s home games are played on natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track in Cincinnati, so the Steelers’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.            

Cincinnati is in a poor situational spot for this game against Pittsburgh.  The Bengals come in off back-to-back easy wins in which they led wire-to-wire.  Cincinnati beat St. Louis 31-7 two weeks ago, and last week the Bengals beat the Browns 37-3.  Cincinnati led by double digits for the majority of both games, and that simply sets them up to regress in this game.  The Bengals’ defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  Against the two good offenses they faced, Cincinnati gave up 34 points to Arizona and 24 points to Seattle.  Their secondary gave up 498 passing yards in those games, and that was with a healthy unit.  They come into this game with cluster injuries, so Roethlisberger will have a lot of success throwing the ball in this game.  Pittsburgh is playing excellent football right now, so we’ll take the Steelers plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

10* Play STEELERS (+).

Pittsburgh’s offense has been excellent with Ben Roethlisberger this season.  The Steelers have scored 30 points or more in their last four games.  Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 25.9 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Steelers have played two road games with Roethlisberger under center; they scored 30 points on 538 yards of offense at Seattle, and they scored 21 points on 464 yards of offense at New England.  The common thing about those two games is that they were both played on artificial turf; Pittsburgh’s home games are played on natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track in Cincinnati, so the Steelers’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.  Roethlisberger will face a depleted Cincinnati secondary that will be playing a pair of rookies because of injury.  In just eight games this season, Roethlisberger has completed 65.9% (201-305) of his passes for 2,702 yards and 15 touchdowns.  Roethlisberger is averaging a whopping 8.9 yards per pass attempt. 

Cincinnati also has a strong offense that is averaging 27.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Bengals have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 247 yards per game thru the air on 7.9 yards per pass attempt.  Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has thrown for 3,191 yards this season while only throwing six interceptions on 381 pass attempts.  Cincinnati’s offense will score their share of points against a Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 23.2 points per game on 6.4 yards per play on the road this season.  The Bengals have scored 24 points or more in ten of their twelve games while the Steelers have scored 30 points or more in five of the seven games that Roethlisberger has played from start to finish.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Steelers and Bengals on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

The Under is a perfect 9-0 the past nine years in this series.  It is not a surprise as both teams run the exact same option-offense and each defense is very familiar defending the run.  The past nine head-to-head meetings have averaged just 36 total points per game, despite the average Over/Under line being posted at 52 points.  The oddsmakers continue to base the total on the overall seasonal numbers for each team, but this is not an accurate projection on how these games play out on the field.  In fact, the same Under trend has been prevalent when facing the other military option team, Air Force, as well.  This season the Navy/Air Force game totaled just 44 total points (O/U line 49.5), while the Army/Air Force game totaled only 23 points scored (O/U line 50.5).  Army is now 14-3 Under in recent games versus Navy and Air Force, while Navy is on an incredible 17-2 Under run versus the other two service academies.

The reason these military games are lower scoring than expected is because the oddsmakers use overall season statistics which are inflated.  The military academies are less athletic in the defensive backfield, and unfamiliar with passing offenses, so opponents often put up big passing numbers.  Meanwhile, option offenses normally have more success against conventional defensive opponents who are not familiar with stopping a run-heavy attack.  This means both offensive and defensive seasonal scoring numbers are inflated for the service academies in regular games, but this does not apply when two service academies face each other because they all run the triple-option offense which means very few passes are thrown.  This means less big plays and more game clock being consumed on drives.

Army's weak defensive numbers this season are largely the result of a terrible pass defense that has allowed 62% completions and 8.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 57% and 7.3 ypp).  Army's secondary has been particularly bad on the road, allowing 68% completions and 9.2 ypp.  However, this defensive weakness is irrelevant today against a Navy offense that has run the ball on 88% of their total offensive plays this season (58 runs, 8 passes per game).  Army's run defense has actually been respectable this year, allowing just 163 yards and 4.5 yards per rush (versus opponents that average 156 yards and 4.2 ypr).

Navy has been a solid defensive team this season, allowing just 21.7 points per game and only 3.9 yards per rush (versus opponents that average 29.4 ppg and 4.5 ypr).  The Midshipmen should have no trouble stopping a weak Army offense that averages just 22.5 points per game this year (versus opponents that allow 28.9 ppg).  Army has run the ball on 87% of their total offensive plays this season (52 runs, 8 passes per game), so the Black Knights will have a tough time playing from behind in this game, especially since they average a paltry 44% completions overall this year.

9* Play UNDER (Army/Navy) the total.

Dallas has had a very disappointing season; the Cowboys come into this game with a 3-8 record.  And last week they lost quarterback Tony Romo (collarbone) for the rest of the season.  Dallas is used to playing without Romo this year; he has missed seven of eleven games.  The Cowboys’ season is lost, but tonight’s game in Washington gives them an opportunity to get a much-needed win.  Matt Cassel will take over at quarterback, and he will rely on running back Darren McFadden to carry the offensive workload in this game.  McFadden should produce as Washington’s rush defense ranks 21st in efficiency while giving up 126.6 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.       

Washington has been up and down this season.  The Redskins have alternated wins and losses in their last six games, and in fact, they’ve alternated wins and losses in ten of their eleven games this season.  The Redskins won their last game, so if their trend holds up, a poor effort resulting in a loss will play out tonight, especially since Washington has yet to win back-to-back games this season.  The Redskins have been home underdogs in five of their six home games, but now they are laying a field goal into a divisional opponent.  In the one game in which they were favored at home, Washington trailed Tampa Bay 24-0 before rallying back for a 31-30 win.  The Cowboys’ defense is only allowing 17.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season.  Washington has no business laying points into any team, so we’ll take Dallas plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play COWBOYS (+).

Indianapolis’ offense is starting to come around with Matt Hasselbeck under center.  The Colts have picked up the pace as they are now playing with a much quicker tempo.  The Colts have scored 21 points or more in seven consecutive games, and they are averaging 25.5 points per game over their last four.  We fully expect another strong offensive performance from the Indianapolis offense since the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 80 points in their last three games.  Overall, Pittsburgh is allowing their opponents to average 6.0 yards per play this season.  That poor defensive efficiency plays right into the hands of what the Colts’ offense is doing now with Hasselbeck at quarterback.

Pittsburgh’s offense is terrific when Ben Roethlisberger is under center.  Their seasonal numbers are skewed from the games he missed, but Pittsburgh is still playing above average football.  The Steelers’ offense is averaging 24.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 22.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  In just seven games this season, Roethlisberger has completed 66.5% (177-266) of his passes for 2,343 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Roethlisberger is averaging a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll throw all over a Colts defense that is allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Colts and Steelers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Carolina comes into this game as the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NFL.  The Panthers have a perfect 11-0 record, including a win over New Orleans back in Week 3.  Carolina only won that game 27-22 on their home field despite Luke McCown playing quarterback for the injured Drew Brees.  The Panthers’ defense was shredded by a backup quarterback as McCown completed 81.6% (31-38) of his passes for 310 yards.  If McCown did that to the Panthers in Carolina, then Brees has some serious potential to carve up Carolina’s secondary at home on a fast track inside a dome.  The Panthers have won their last three games by a combined score of 104-40 which sets them up to regress sharply in this game.  Carolina’s offense is only averaging 4.7 yards per play on the road this season which is well below their overall average of 5.4 yards per play.

The Saints return home off back-to-back road losses in Washington and Houston.  New Orleans has played much better football at home where they are 3-2 this season with one of those losses coming in overtime.  The setup for this game couldn’t be any better for New Orleans.  The Saints will bring their peak effort in this game, and their potent home offense will lead the way.  New Orleans is averaging 31.2 points per game on 435.2 yards of offense at home this season.  The Saints average 6.3 yards per play inside the dome, so Carolina’s defense will have their worst game of the season.  This is an exceptional spot to play against Carolina, and since New Orleans is primed for their best, we’ll take the points with the Saints in a game they have a very good shot at winning outright.  

10* Play SAINTS (+).

The New York Jets and the New York Giants will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The teams will both face stout rush defenses that do not give up much on the ground, so we expect the ball to be in the air throughout this game.  The Jets’ offense broke out last week as they scored 38 points on 411 yards of total offense.  We expect their scoring ways to continue against a Giants defense that has given up 20 points or more in nine of their eleven games this season.  Overall, the Jets are averaging 24.7 points per game this season while scoring 20 points or more in four of their five road games.  Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will face one of the worst secondaries in the league as the Giants rank 25th in efficiency while allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  Overall, the Giants’ defense is allowing 24.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.

New York’s other team, the Giants, come in off their second worst offensive game of the season when they only scored 14 points in Washington last week.  That was just the second time this season in which the Giants failed to score at least 20 points in a game.  New York went into that game off a bye, and they were simply out of rhythm.  The Giants’ offensive flow will return this week, and we’ll see the team that averaged 33.5 points per game in the four weeks prior to their bye.  New York has a strong passing attack under QB Eli Manning who is averaging 309.9 yards per game on 7.8 yards per pass attempt.  Manning will face a depleted Jets secondary that will be missing Darrelle Revis due to a concussion.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Jets and Giants on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.  The Texans have won three of those four games by 7 points or more with their average win coming by 10.8 points per game.  Their defense held all four opponents to just 35 total points with three teams scoring just 6 points each.  However, Houston beat Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, they beat a New York Jets team that was on a 1-3 slide, and they beat New Orleans who is just 1-5 on the road this season.  Houston also won at Cincinnati, but that was a phony win as they only had 256 yards of total offense while scoring just 3 total points thru the first three quarters of the game.  So while the four wins look good on the scoreboard, Houston’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Texans are set to regress in this game, especially since their offense only averages 21 points per game on 4.8 yards per play on the road this season.

Buffalo returns home off three consecutive road games.  This will be just their third home game since October 18th, and off back-to-back losses, we expect a peak performance by Buffalo.  The Bills have three home losses this season, but two of those losses came to the Patriots and Bengals who are a combined 19-3 on the season.  All three of the home defeats came against teams with excellent passing offenses, but Buffalo will face a Texans’ passing offense that is only averaging 5.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season.  Overall, the Bills have played above average football on both sides of the ball.  Buffalo is averaging 24.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play at home this season.  In their two home wins against teams on their level, the Bills held the Colts to just 14 points and the Dolphins to just 17 points.  Buffalo is set for a peak performance while Houston is set to regress, so we’ll lay the points with the Bills in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (-).

USC and Stanford will play for the second time this season; the Cardinal won 41-31 way back in Week 3.  The Trojans were 9.5-point home favorites in that game, and they jumped out to a 21-3 lead late in the second quarter.  Stanford only won yardage 474-427 despite having a 39:29-20:31 time of possession edge.  USC ran for 155 yards on 5.5 yards per rush, and quarterback Cody Kessler completed 78.1% (25-32) of his passes for 272 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Overall this season, USC is averaging 36 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  USC’s defense has also played terrific this season; the Trojans are only giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that average 34.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.

Stanford comes into this game as winners of ten of their last eleven games.  However, the Cardinal have been fortunate in a couple of those recent games.  Stanford needed a missed field goal to escape Washington State, and last week they beat Notre Dame on a last-second field goal.  Stanford was gouged on the ground by the Irish last week as they gave up 299 rushing yards on a whopping 8.5 yards per rush.  Stanford has struggled to stop the run all season while giving up 144.3 yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  USC gashed them in the first meeting, and they’ll do so again as the Trojans average 177 yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  My power ratings only make Stanford a 2.5-point favorite in this game, so there’s excellent value in getting more than a field goal in this game.  We’ll take USC plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play USC (+).

Baltimore has had a very disappointing season; the Ravens come into this game with a 3-7 record.  And last week they lost quarterback Joe Flacco (ACL/MCL) and running back Justin Forsett (broken arm) for the rest of the season.  The Ravens’ season is lost, but tonight’s game in Cleveland gives them an opportunity to get a much-needed win.  Matt Schaub will take over at quarterback, but he will rely on running back Buck Allen to carry the offensive workload in this game.  Allen was very good in relief of Forsett last week when he totaled 115 yards on the ground and thru the air against a pretty good St. Louis defense.  Allen should produce once again tonight as the Brown’s rush defense ranks 29th in efficiency while giving up 138.8 yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.       

Cleveland is having another dysfunctional season, especially at the quarterback position.  Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel has been in and out, and it was Manziel slated to finish the rest of the season.  However, he recently got in trouble off the field, so McCown will be the quarterback tonight.  In the first meeting of the season, Cleveland won 33-30 in Baltimore as 6-point road underdogs.  The Ravens’ defense was a mess back then, and McCown took advantage.  However, the Ravens are in much better form now as they’ve held their last two opponents to just 35 total points.  Baltimore allowed just 47.9% (34-71) completions for 324 yards on 4.6 yards per pass attempt in this games.  The Ravens’ run defense was also stout while holding those opponents to just 128 yards on 2.8 yards per rush.  Cleveland has no business laying points into any team, so we’ll take Baltimore plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

9* Play RAVENS (+).

New England is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, and they’ll remain that way after tonight’s game.  The Patriots are 10-0 with nine of those wins coming by 7 points or more.  While it’s true New England comes into this game at less than 100% with multiple offensive injuries, head coach Bill Belichick is the master at devising a game plan to attack the opponents’ weakness.  The Patriots are the best scheming team in the NFL, and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability negates Denver’s pass rush which in turn makes a short passing game very dangerous.  New England knows they’ll have little success running on Denver, so we expect to see the Patriots spread the Broncos out and dink and dunk their way downfield.

Denver won 17-15 in Chicago last week, but they needed to stop a 2-point conversion to prevent overtime.  The buzz is all about quarterback Brock Osweiler in his performance replacing Peyton Manning.  While he was good in his first start, he was facing a terrible Chicago defense.  He naturally figures to regress in his second start, especially since he’ll be facing an underrated New England defense.  The Patriots are only giving up 18.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver’s offense is only averaging 22.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite facing defenses that allow 23.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  We’ll back New England in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Pittsburgh comes into this game fresh off their bye, so they will be ready for a big effort, especially their offense.  The Steelers’ offense is terrific when Ben Roethlisberger is under center.  Their seasonal numbers are skewed from the games he missed, but Pittsburgh is still playing above average football.  The Steelers’ offense is averaging 23.6 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 23 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  In just six games this season, Roethlisberger has completed 66.8% (141-211) of his passes for 1,887 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Roethlisberger is averaging a whopping 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll have similar success in this game because the way to beat the Seattle defense is  by throwing the ball deep.

Seattle’s offense is starting to come around as they’ve scored 61 points in their last two games.  The Seahawks had scored 26 points or less over their previous seven games while only averaging 19.4 points per game during that stretch.  With this being their third consecutive home game, we fully expect another strong offensive performance from the Seattle offense.  The Pittsburgh defense is extremely vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, and they’ll face one of the best runners in the league in Russell Wilson.  The Steelers have faced four pocket quarterbacks in their four road games this season, and three of those teams still scored 20, 23, and 28 points.  Overall, Pittsburgh is allowing 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Steelers and Seahawks on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami got a nice boost after head coach Joe Philbin got fired.  The Dolphins won their first two games under interim coach Dan Campbell, but since those initial wins, the team has been terrible.  Miami is just 1-3 over their last four games with their lone win being very fortunate; they beat the Eagles 20-19 despite getting out-yarded 436-289 while coming back from a 16-3 deficit.  Miami’s offense has underperformed while only averaging 20.5 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.1 points per game.  The Dolphins have been even worse on the road where they are only averaging 19 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Miami’s defense is in shambles with their top lineman, Cameron Wake, on injured reserve.  The Dolphins’ secondary is also a mess; they’ve allowed 1,429 passing yards on 8.2 yards per pass attempt with a 11/4 touchdown/interception ratio over the last five games.     

New York comes into this game in desperate need of a win; they’ve lost four of their last five games.  The Jets will be primed for a big effort in this game, especially since they manhandled the Dolphins in London earlier this season.  New York won that game 27-14 while out-yarding Miami 425-226.  The Jets dominated the line of scrimmage while running for 207 yards with Chris Ivory leading the way with 166 yards on 29 carries.  The Jets will repeat that performance in this game, especially since Miami is giving up 142.6 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush on the road this season.  New York’s defense is only allowing 19.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.  New York is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play JETS (-).

Buffalo is finally healthy again, and we’ve seen a much better team on the field in recent weeks.  The Bills have won two of their last three games with their loss coming by just 7 points at New England last Monday night.  Buffalo is now in a good bounce back spot after facing one of the best teams in the league.  The Bills are getting just a couple of points less in this game than they got against the Patriots, and they are facing a team that is on their level.  Buffalo’s defense has been terrific on the road this season where they are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Overall, the Bills have been excellent against the run while holding opponents to just 96.2 yards per game on the ground.  Their ability to stop the run will be a major factor in this game.  

Kansas City is 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.  The Chiefs have won all four of those games by 10 points or more with their average win coming by an incredible 22.8 points per game.  However, Kansas City has been fortunate in those games.  The Chiefs beat Pittsburgh with Landry Jones at quarterback, they beat a 1-6 Detroit team, they beat Denver when Peyton Manning got hurt, and last week they beat a 2-7 San Diego team.  So while the four wins were all impressive on the scoreboard, Kansas City’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Chiefs are set to regress in this game, especially since they will be facing a strong Buffalo defense.  Kansas City needs to run the ball to have success, but they will have a difficult time running with consistency against the Bills.  We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take Buffalo plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (+).

Texas A&M comes into this game with an 8-3 record, but the Aggies have faced a soft schedule while playing just two true road games all season.  They lost 23-3 at Mississippi, but last week they won 25-0 at Vanderbilt.  Their two neutral site games were both in the state of Texas which means the Aggies have played just two of their eleven games this season outside of the state.  Now they are taking a major step-up in class for this night game at LSU, and they are doing so off a perfect performance.  Texas A&M’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Despite playing at home and against poor defenses, the Aggies are only averaging 30.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Texas A&M is taking a major step-up in defensive class against LSU in this game, and that’s not a good thing considering their offense is set to regress.    

LSU comes into this game on 3-game losing streak with rumors swirling that head coach Les Miles will be let go.  The Tigers played two of their last three games on the road, and since they also lost their last home game, we expect a strong bounce back effort here.  LSU has an excellent defense that is only giving up 25.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 31.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  LSU’s offense has a terrific running game that is averaging 282.8 yards per game on a whopping 6.4 yards per rush at home this season.  They will face a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 202.5 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  All five of LSU’s home wins have come by 7 points or more with their average home win coming by 20.3 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with the Tigers in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play LSU (-).

North Carolina has had a fantastic season so far as they come into this game with a 10-1 record with their lone loss coming way back in their season opener.  But are they as good as their record indicates?  Not quite.  We won a Best Bet selection on Virginia Tech against North Carolina last week, and we’ll come right back and play against the Tar Heels again this week.  They’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country, and seven of their last ten games have come on their home field.  North Carolina has played just three true road games all season with the wins coming by a combined 17 points.  The Tar Heels were 6.5-point underdogs at Georgia Tech, 1-point favorites at Pittsburgh, and 3.5-point favorites at Virginia Tech last week.  North Carolina’s defensive numbers are skewed by the fact that they’ve faced a terrible slate of opposing offenses that only average 24.1 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Tar Heels will face a NC State offense that is averaging 36 points per game at home this season.  

NC State comes into this game with a solid 7-4 record.  That winning mark has come despite playing six of their last nine games on the road.  The Wolfpack has played excellent football on both sides of the ball this season.  NC State is averaging 33.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 26.3 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Wolfpack offense has been even better at home as noted above.  NC State’s defense is only giving up 21.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play against offenses that average 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  My power ratings only make North Carolina a 3-point favorite in this game, so there is some good value on the home underdog.  We’ll take the Wolfpack plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play NC STATE (+).

Georgia is 8-3 on the season, but the Bulldogs have not been impressive at all.  Georgia opened the season with four straight blowout wins, but since October, they’ve underperformed on both sides of the ball.  Georgia is just 4-3 over their last seven games with their four wins coming by 3, 6 in overtime, 7, and 24 points.  That 24-point win came against a terrible Kentucky team.  The Bulldogs have played just two true road games over their last nine games, and they’ve played mediocre football despite playing on their home field.  The Bulldogs are only averaging 21.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season.  Georgia’s defense has also played worse on the road where they are giving up 23 points per game on 5.2 yards per play compared to just 17.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play overall.   

Georgia Tech comes into this game with a 3-8 record after losing their last three games.  The Yellow Jackets were favored in four of their last five games, but now Georgia Tech is getting more than a field goal at home in this game which creates a lot of value, especially since my power ratings make this game a Pick.  The Yellow Jackets possess a potent rushing attack that averages 262.4 yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech’s offense is averaging 31.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Georgia Tech’s last win came as home underdogs against Florida State, and we wouldn’t be shocked by a similar outcome here.  We’ll take Georgia Tech plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Iowa comes into this game with a perfect 11-0 record, and they are currently ranked #4 in the country.  However, you’d be hard-pressed to find many (except Iowa fans) that really believe they are the fourth best team in the country.  The Hawkeyes have played an extremely weak schedule, and their two toughest games were both close games which they could have easily lost.  Iowa beat Pittsburgh 27-24, and they beat Wisconsin 10-6; both games were defensive scrums.  The Hawkeyes have faced a poor slate of opposing defenses that allow 169.9 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush as a group.  Iowa’s ability to run the ball successfully on those teams allowed their mediocre passing attack to hit plays downfield.  But Iowa will face a stout Nebraska rush defense that is only giving up 109.8 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush this season.  Iowa’s offense becomes very easy to defend when unable to run the football.

Nebraska comes into this game with a 5-6 record, but the Cornhuskers could actually be 10-1 on the season.  Their six losses have come by a combined 23 points, and incredibly, four of their six losses have come on the final play of the game.  Nebraska has faced much tougher defensive opponents than Iowa, and the Cornhuskers have performed better.  Nebraska is averaging 33.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus opponents that only give up 25 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Cornhuskers will have success moving the ball on an Iowa defense that has faced a terrible slate of offensive teams that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.1 yards per play combined.  My power ratings make Nebraska a 4-point favorite, so there’s tremendous value in taking the Cornhuskers as a home underdog in this game.  Nebraska also comes into this game off a bye, so they are rested and ready to hand Iowa their first loss of the season.  We’ll back Nebraska in this game on Friday afternoon. 

10* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Chicago is playing much better football now after opening the season at 0-3.  The Bears are 4-3 SU and a terrific 6-1 ATS over their last seven games.  Their three recent losses could have been wins as well; they lost each of those games by 3 points or less.  The Bears are 3-1 on the road during their recent stretch while averaging 27.8 points per game.  Chicago’s offense has actually played better on the road this season where they are averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Bears have a strong passing attack that will be able to rack up yards thru the air on a Green Bay secondary that is in terrible current form.  The Packers have allowed 1,127 passing yards in their last four games despite playing weak passing offenses like the Vikings, Panthers, Broncos, and Lions.  On a short week, the Packers have had no time to fix their problems, so we expect another poor performance from Green Bay’s defense in this game.

Green Bay has played bad football in the month of November.  The Packers are just 1-3 this month with their lone win coming last week in Minnesota.  They won that game despite getting out-yarded 342-320.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed 25 of his 37 passes for 296 yards which shows how bad the Packers’ defense has played as noted above.  Overall, the Packers’ defense is allowing 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that only average 5.6 yards per play.  The first meeting in Chicago resulted in an 8-point Green Bay win, but that was the season opener when the Bears were looking for an identity under new head coach John Fox.  The Bears are playing much better now while Green Bay is playing worse, so we’ll take the Bears plus the points on Thursday night.

9* Play BEARS (+).

Chicago is 3-1 on the road during their recent stretch while averaging 27.8 points per game.  Chicago’s offense has actually played better on the road this season where they are averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Bears have a strong passing attack that will be able to rack up yards thru the air on a Green Bay secondary that is in terrible current form.  The Packers have allowed 1,127 passing yards in their last four games.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed 25 of his 37 passes for 296 yards last week which shows how bad the Packers’ defense has played.  Overall, the Packers’ defense is allowing 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that only average 5.6 yards per play.  On a short week, the Packers have had no time to fix their problems, so we expect another poor performance from Green Bay’s defense in this game.

Green Bay also has a strong offense that is averaging 26.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play at home this season.  The Packers have a much improved running game that is averaging 110 yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Green Bay’s ability to run the ball has allowed QB Aaron Rodgers to make big passing plays downfield all season.  Rodgers is completing 61.7% of his passes while throwing for 7.2 yards per pass attempt with an incredible 23/3 touchdown/interception ratio.  The Bears are giving up 25.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  We expect both offenses to go up and down the field in a high-scoring game between the Bears and Packers on Thursday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Carolina is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL; they are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS.  The Panthers have been impressive on both sides of the ball this season, but they’ve played an extremely weak slate of opponents.  Carolina’s offense has faced a collection of defenses that are allowing 24.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Despite that, the Panthers are only averaging 5.5 yards per play.  Carolina’s defense is only giving up 19.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  However, they’ve put those numbers up against a group of opposing offenses that only average 22.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  In their lone road game against a good opponent, Carolina gave up 23 points to the Seahawks in a game they trailed 20-7 at one point before coming back to win with just 32 seconds left to play.      

Dallas has had a disappointing season; the Cowboys come into this game with a 3-7 record.  Their troubles began when they lost quarterback Tony Romo to a broken collarbone back in Week 2.  The Cowboys’ three wins have come with Romo under center; they went 0-7 in the games Romo missed.  He returned for last week’s game in Miami, and Dallas cruised to an easy 24-14 win.  The Cowboys’ formula for success is to lean on their running game behind their strong offensive line; their ability to run the ball means they can control the clock and keep Carolina’s offense off the field.  Dallas simply matches-up extremely well with Carolina, so we’ll back the Cowboys in this game on Thursday afternoon. 

10* Play COWBOYS.

Buffalo is finally healthy again, and we’ve seen a much better team on the field in recent weeks.  The Bills come into tonight’s game off back-to-back division wins over the Dolphins and Jets, so they have plenty of momentum and confidence heading into New England.  Buffalo hosted the Patriots back in Week 2, and heavy money came in on the Bills and they went from small underdogs to 2-point favorites.  The result was ugly; Buffalo lost 40-32 in a game that was nowhere as close as the final score indicates.  The Bills trailed 37-13 going into the fourth quarter.  Now the Bills are getting a full touchdown in the rematch, and that simply creates value on the underdog.  Buffalo’s defense has been terrific on the road this season where they are only giving up 19.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  

New England is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL; they are 9-0 SU but just 5-4 ATS.  The Patriots have exceptional offensive numbers this season, but unfortunately, New England will be without two important players tonight because of injury.  Julien Edelman and Dion Lewis both got hurt last week, and when they went out, we saw New England’s offense struggle to move the football.  In the first meeting against Buffalo, Edelman and Lewis caught 17 passes on 28 targets for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Patriots’ passing offense will be all Rob Gronkowski now, so Buffalo’s defense will surely game plan to contain him tonight.  We expect the second meeting to be much closer than the first, so we’ll take Buffalo plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play BILLS (+).

Cincinnati comes into this game off their first loss of the season.  The Bengals haven’t had much time to sulk about it since they are playing on the road on a short week.  Cincinnati’s offense was terrible last week as they only scored 6 points on their home field.  Things won’t be any easier in this game as they’ll be facing a terrific Arizona defense that is off a sub-par performance.  Overall, Arizona is allowing just 20.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season.  The Cardinals’ defense has been even better at home where they are holding opponents to just 17 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.          

Arizona is 7-2 after winning in Seattle last week.  The Cardinals’ offense has been outstanding this season, but they’ve faced a weak slate of defenses that are allowing 24.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Arizona will be taking a major step-up in defensive class against the strong Cincinnati defense.  The Bengals are only allowing 16.9 points per game against offenses that average 23 points per game.  Cincinnati has carried their defense on the road where they are only giving up 17 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The two defenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a low-scoring game between the Bengals and Cardinals on Sunday night.    

9* Play UNDER the total.

Dallas has had a disappointing season; the Cowboys come into this game with a 2-7 record.  Their troubles began when they lost quarterback Tony Romo to a broken collarbone back in Week 2.  The Cowboys’ two wins came in their first two games when Romo played; they are simply a much different team with him under center.  He returns for this game, and his presence will give Dallas a major boost and allow them to snap their 7-game losing streak.  The Cowboys have a significant edge on the line of scrimmage, and their ability to run the ball means they won’t have to rely on Romo’s arm to win.  Dallas will face a weak Miami defensive line that has been gashed on the ground this season; the Dolphins allow 135.6 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Miami will also be without their top lineman, Cameron Wake, which just makes things even worse.  The Dolphins’ secondary is also a mess; they’ve allowed 1,202 passing yards on 8.2 yards per pass attempt with a 9/2 touchdown/interception ratio over the last four games.     

Miami comes into this game off a fortunate 20-19 win in Philadelphia last week.  The Dolphins were out-yarded 436-289 in that game while coming back from a 16-3 deficit.  That game was preceded by back-to-back blowout losses which showed just how bad this Miami team can be.  Off the gift win, Miami will face a desperate Dallas team that will bring their best effort, especially since their quarterback is returning.  The Cowboys’ defense has been terrific on the road this season; they are giving up just 18.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Miami’s offense has underperformed while only averaging 21.2 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.5 points per game.  We expect a peak performance by Dallas, so we’ll back the Cowboys in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play COWBOYS (-).

New York comes into this game in desperate need of a win, so we know they’ll bring their best effort.  The Jets have lost three of their last four games, but two of the losses were close and the other is easily excusable.  New York lost at New England and out in Oakland the following week when quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick got hurt on the opening possession.  Their most recent loss came on a Thursday night when they couldn’t score from the 5-yard line with time winding down.  New York will be primed for a big effort in this game, especially since they have extra rest while facing a Texans team on short rest.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game, especially since Houston gives up 118 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  The Jets average 117 yards on the ground per game on 4.0 yards per rush, so the match-up is perfect for New York.  

Houston comes into this game off an outright win as 10-point underdogs in Cincinnati on Monday night.  The Texans went into that game off their bye, and they handed the Bengals their first loss of the season, and did so with their backup quarterback.  T.J. Yates came in when Brian Hoyer left with a concussion, and he played mistake-free football.  But in the starting role this week, Yates doesn’t figure to play as well, especially against a stout New York defense.  The Jets are only allowing 20.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  New York is the better team in a focused spot while catching Houston at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play JETS (-).

Oakland and Detroit will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The Raiders were terrible on offense last week as they only scored 14 points at home against Minnesota.  Off that woeful offensive performance, Oakland’s offense is primed for a bounce back scoring performance indoors on a fast track in Detroit.  Quarterback Derek Carr will face one of the worst secondaries in the league, and he has the weapons to exploit the Lions.  Detroit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.1% of their passes on 7.5 yards per pass attempt this season.  Overall, Detroit’s defense is allowing 32 points per game on 6.4 yards per play at home this season.

Detroit is 2-7 on the season, but the Lions have faced a tough schedule, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The Lions have faced a collection of defenses that are only allowing 21 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  Detroit is taking a monumental step-down in class as the Oakland defense is giving up 26.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Detroit will be throwing the ball a lot, especially against an Oakland secondary that has given up 2 or more touchdown passes in seven of their nine games, and 250 passing yards or more in eight of their nine games this season.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Raiders and Lions on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Texas A&M comes into this game with a 7-3 record, but the Aggies have faced a soft schedule while playing just one true road game all season.  They lost that game 23-3 at Mississippi.  Their two neutral site games were both in the state of Texas which means the Aggies have played just one of their ten games this season outside of the state.  Texas A&M’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 27.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Despite playing at home and against poor defenses, the Aggies are only averaging 30.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Texas A&M is taking a major step-up in defensive class against Vanderbilt in this game, and they are doing so while laying close to a touchdown on the road.     

Vanderbilt cashed as a Best Bet selection for us last week, and we’ll come right back with them this week.  The Commodores have an excellent defense that is only giving up 17.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  At home, Vanderbilt is only allowing 14.4 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.  Vanderbilt’s offense has mediocre seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a solid slate of defenses that include Florida, Missouri, Georgia, and Mississippi.  The Commodores’ offense will face a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 24 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Vanderbilt is 3-2 at home this season with one of those losses coming by just 2 points.  This is the Commodores home finale, so they will bring their best effort, especially since they come in off a confidence-building win.  We’ll take the points with the Commodores in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play VANDERBILT (+).

Mississippi State had their 4-game winning streak snapped last week at home when they got crushed 31-6 by Alabama.  The Bulldogs took a physical beating in that game, and we’ve seen teams play terrible the following week after playing the Crimson Tide.  Mississippi State’s recent wins have also come against terrible teams like Missouri, Kentucky, Troy, and Louisiana Tech.  Mississippi State has played four of their last five games at home, and this will be just their second road game over the last six weeks.  Mississippi State’s offense has been much worse on the road this season.  They are only averaging 24.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play compared to 31.8 points per game on 6.4 yards per play overall.  The Bulldogs’ defense has been vulnerable on the ground as they are giving up 174.4 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  They will face an Arkansas offense that rushes for 203 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.

Arkansas is 6-4 on the season, and that’s a pretty good record considering they’ve payed a brutal schedule.  The Razorbacks have played Toledo, at Tennessee, at Alabama, at Mississippi, and at LSU.  Arkansas is facing a much softer opponent in Mississippi State, and the Razorbacks return home with momentum and confidence off back-to-back road wins.  Arkansas will be playing just their third home game since September, so they’ll be ready for this game, especially since they are playing with revenge.  Arkansas has a terrific running game as noted above, and their ability to control the line of scrimmage will be the difference in this game.  Arkansas is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Razorbacks in this game on Saturday night.         

10* Play ARKANSAS (-).

North Carolina has had a fantastic season so far as they come into this game with a 9-1 record with their lone loss coming way back in their season opener.  They lost 17-13 to a bad South Carolina team, and the Tar Heels had multiple chances to win that game.  North Carolina could very well be undefeated, but are they as good as their record indicates?  Not quite.  The Tar Heels have played one of the easiest schedules in the country, and seven of their last nine games have come on their home field.  North Carolina has played just two true road games all season with both games resulting in 7-point wins.  The Tar Heels were 6.5-point underdogs at Georgia Tech, and just 1-point favorites at Pittsburgh, so the fact they are laying more than a field goal in this game presents excellent value on the underdog.  North Carolina’s defensive numbers are skewed by the fact that they’ve faced a terrible slate of opposing offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Tar Heels will face a Virginia Tech offense that is averaging 30 points per game at home this season.  

Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 5-5 record, but that is a direct result of losing starting quarterback Michael Brewer in their season opener against Alabama.  The Hokies’ offense was terrible under Brenden Motley.  But Brewer returned three games ago, and we’ve seen a much better Virginia Tech team.  They’ve gone 2-1 in those games with their lone loss coming by just 2 points in overtime.  The Hokies return home off back-to-back road wins, and this is their home finale, and also the last home game for legendary head coach Frank Beamer who is retiring.  Virginia Tech will come with their best effort in this game, especially since they are in good current form.  The Hokies’ defense is only giving up 24 points per game on 5.3 yards per play against offenses that average 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  My power ratings make Virginia Tech a 1-point favorite in this game, so we’ll take the Hokies plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

Houston and Cincinnati match-up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Texans will have success running the ball on a vulnerable Cincinnati run defense.  Houston does not have good seasonal statistics, but they’ve played against a good slate of defenses this season.  The Texans will be able to run the ball on the Bengals who are allowing 4.9 yards per rush while being ranked 17th in the NFL in rush defense efficiency.  Houston also comes into this game well rested off their bye week, so we can also expect some aggressiveness in throwing the ball downfield.  Houston’s ability to run the ball will open up passing plays downfield for quarterback Brian Hoyer who is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt with a solid 13/3 touchdown/interception ratio this season.

Cincinnati’s offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Bengals are averaging 29.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Cincinnati is playing an up-tempo passing style offense while throwing the ball on the majority of their plays.  Quarterback Andy Dalton has thrown for 2,226 yards on 8.6 yards per pass attempt with an 18/4 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Houston defense that is giving up 34 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Texans’ secondary is allowing 246.7 passing yards per game on 7.2 yards per pass attempt on the road as well.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Texans and Bengals on Monday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Arizona and Seattle both come into this game off their bye week, so we can expect both teams to bring their best effort.  The Cardinals have the better record as they are 6-2 on the season compared to Seattle’s 4-4 mark.  That alone makes the Cardinals an attractive underdog, but this is not a good match-up for them.  Arizona’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but the Cardinals have faced a slew of poor defensive teams.  In fact, those defenses are giving up 25.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play as a group.  The Cardinals will face a Seattle defense that is only allowing 17.5 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  At home, the Seahawks are giving up just 12.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense is clearly facing the best defense they’ve seen all season.

Seattle has played much better football than their record indicates.  The Seahawks have lost two games in overtime, and another loss came by just 4 points.  Their lone bad game this season came in Green Bay, but that was excusable as the Packers were playing with legitimate revenge.  Overall, Seattle’s offense has struggled, but they get a favorable match-up against the Arizona defense.  The Cardinals have struggled mightily against mobile quarterbacks, and they will face one of the best running quarterbacks in the league tonight.  Russell Wilson was terrific in two games against the Cardinals last season; he completed 69.8% (37-53) of his passes for 550 yards on a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt.  Seattle is rested and ready for a peak performance, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

New England comes into New York with a perfect 8-0 record, and once again this season, the Patriots are led by their potent offense.  The Patriots are averaging 34.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Incredibly, New England’s offense has been even better on the road where they are averaging 34.7 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  The Patriots have an excellent passing game that is averaging 333 yards per game on 8.1 yards per pass attempt on the road.  Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady has thrown for 2,709 yards on 8.3 yards per pass attempt with a terrific 22/2 touchdown/interception ratio.  New England’s offense will score a slew of points against a New York defense that is allowing 25.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.

New York’s offense has also been good this season.  The Giants have scored 20 points or more in eight of their nine games.  Overall, New York is averaging 27.4 points per game versus opponents that only allow 24.8 points per game.  New York will face a New England defense that will be playing on the road for the first time in close to a month.  The Patriots gave up 27 points in Indianapolis and 32 points in Buffalo.  Their defense faced two healthy quarterbacks in those games and they got torched; New England only allowed 6 points in Dallas because Brandon Weeden was at quarterback.  The Patriots’ defense will face the best quarterback they’ve seen all season; Eli Manning has thrown for 2,339 yards with an 19/6 touchdown/interception ratio on the year.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Patriots and Giants on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Chicago snapped their 2-game losing streak with a 22-19 win over the Chargers in San Diego last Monday night.  The Bears out-scored the Chargers 15-3 in the fourth quarter after only scoring 7 total points in the first three quarters.  That was a terrible offensive showing by Chicago considering the San Diego defense had allowed 24 points or more in their eight other games this season.  Now the Bears are on the road once again and playing on a short week while taking a major step-up in defensive class against St. Louis.  Chicago’s offense has been terrible on the road where they are only averaging 18.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Bears have a poor running game (96.2 yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush) away from home, and that makes them a one-dimensional passing offense.  That plays right into the hands of the Rams defense.

St. Louis came into this season ready to win, but the Rams are just 4-4 on the year after losing in overtime to the Vikings last Sunday.  St. Louis is 3-1 at home this season, and their last two home wins have come by a combined score of 51-12.  The Rams have an excellent defense that is tied for second in the NFL with 27 sacks while their secondary has given up just 5 passing touchdowns all season.  At home, St. Louis is only allowing 13.7 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  Overall, the Rams are allowing just 5.2 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  St. Louis is primed for their best while Chicago is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Rams in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play RAMS (-).

New Orleans comes into this game off a tough 34-28 home loss in overtime to the Titans last Sunday.  That game was preceded by three consecutive wins that took a lot out of the Saints.  New Orleans beat previously unbeaten Atlanta 31-21 as home underdogs on a Thursday night, then they went to Indianapolis and won 27-21 as 5.5-point road underdogs, and they capped off their third straight win in a high-scoring 52-49 victory over the New York Giants.  Now they must take to the road and play in the outdoor elements on a natural grass field for the first time in a month.  New Orleans lost a road game 39-17 in Philadelphia under these same conditions earlier this season.  The Saints’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL; they are giving up 29.8 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  On the road, New Orleans is allowing 29.5 points per game on 6.9 yards per play. 

Washington comes into this game off a 27-10 blowout loss in New England.  That was simply a terrible spot for the Redskins after coming back from a 24-0 deficit to beat Tampa Bay 31-30 and having a bye the following week.  Washington returns home where they’ve played good football this season.  The Redskins are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming way back in their season opener.  At home, Washington is averaging 22 points per game on 5.6 yards per play which is better than the 19.7 points per game on 5.2 yards per play that they average overall.  The Redskins’ offense will have one of their best games of the season.  They are fully healthy now, and they are playing an awful New Orleans defense.  Washington’s defense is only giving up 19.2 points per game at home, so the Saints offense has their work cut out for them.  We expect a peak performance by Washington, so we’ll back the Redskins in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

Washington State comes into this game with a respectable 6-3 record on the season.  Not much was expected from the Cougars, so they’ve certainly overachieved on the field.  However, this is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Washington State, and we expect them to throw in a clunker.  The Cougars have played in three consecutive close, high-scoring games with the last two coming on their home field.  Last week, Washington State trailed Arizona State 14-0 and then 21-17 heading into the fourth quarter before out-scoring the Sun Devils 21-3.  Two weeks ago, Washington State lost 30-28 to Stanford after blowing a 22-13 lead late in the second half.  And three weeks ago, the Cougars won 45-42 at Arizona.  So that’s three straight emotional games that will catch-up to Washington State here, especially since they are playing on the road where their defense allows 37 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

UCLA is back to their wining ways after three straight victories, including last week’s 41-0 blowout of Oregon State.  The Bruins dominated teams early when they opened the season with four consecutive wins, but back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Stanford made UCLA a forgotten commodity.  The Bruins’ offense is averaging 36.1 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that give up 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  UCLA will move the ball at will on a terrible Washington State defense, especially on the ground as the Cougars give up 215.7 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush on the road this season.  UCLA also has a good defense that is only allowing 24.6 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 30.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  UCLA is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bruins in this game on Saturday night. 

10* Play UCLA (-).

Kentucky comes into this game off four consecutive losses because of their defense.  We won a Best Bet selection on Georgia last week when they beat Kentucky 27-3; we also won against Kentucky the week before when Tennessee waxed them 52-21.  We’ll come right back and play against the Wildcats once again this week.  Kentucky has given up 151 points in their last four games to Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Georgia.  Kentucky’s defense is injury riddled; they are without their best defensive lineman and their secondary is in shambles.  Kentucky’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 21.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play despite playing the likes of Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky.  Vanderbilt has an excellent defense that is only giving up 17.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  At home, the Commodores are only allowing 13.7 points per game on 4.3 yards per play.  

Vanderbilt’s offense only scored 7 points last week, but that was in Florida against the stout Gators defense.  The Commodores are taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against Kentucky, and we expect Vanderbilt’s offense to break out in a major way.  The Commodores’ offense has poor seasonal numbers, but they’ve played strong defenses that are only allowing 24.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Vanderbilt has scored just 10 and 14 points at home in conference play, but those games came against Georgia and Missouri who have terrific defenses.  Kentucky has one of the worst defenses in the SEC, so the Commodores’ offense will have one of their best offensive games of the season.  Vanderbilt will be playing just their second home game since September 19th, so they will bring their best effort here.  Kentucky will be playing their third road game in four weeks, so this is a good scheduling spot for Vanderbilt.  We’ll lay the points with the Commodores in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VANDERBILT (-).

SMU has played terrible football this season; the Mustangs come into this game with a 1-8 record with their lone win coming over North Texas who is also 1-8 on the season.  SMU has simply been terrible on both sides of the ball this season.  The Mustangs’ offense is only averaging 26.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season.  Overall this season, SMU has faced a collection of defenses that allow 29.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Mustangs will face a Navy defense that only gives up 19 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  That’s 10.8 points per game less and 0.2 yards per play less than the defenses that SMU has faced this season.  If we only use Navy’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for SMU.  The Midshipmen allow just 14.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play at home this season. 

Navy comes into this game with a 7-1 record, including a perfect 5-0 mark at home.  The Midshipmen have won three of their home games by 22 points or more with their average win coming by 22.6 points per game.  Navy is averaging 35.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Navy has faced the much tougher defensive opponents than SMU, and the Midshipmen have performed better.  On the road this season, SMU’s defense is giving up 47.7 points per game on a horrendous 7.6 yards per play.  The Mustangs allow 260 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush, and that plays right into Navy’s running game that averages 326.5 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Midshipmen on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NAVY (-).

Chicago and San Diego will have the same game plan for tonight, and it will lead to a lot of points scored.  The Bears and Chargers both have strong passing offenses, so both teams will throw the ball a lot in this game and that means we’ll see a high-scoring game.  Chicago will be without running back Matt Forte, so that means this game will squarely fall on the arm of quarterback Jay Cutler.  He has been surprisingly good this season while throwing for 1,442 yards on 7.0 yards per pass attempt with an 8/4 touchdown/interception ratio.  Cutler will face a poor San Diego secondary that is allowing 260.2 passing yards per game on a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt at home this season. 

San Diego’s offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Chargers are averaging 28 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  San Diego plays an up-tempo style while throwing the ball on the majority of their plays.  Quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown for 300 yards or more in five straight games, and that trend will continue tonight against a horrendous Chicago pass defense.  The Bears are giving up 26.7 points per game on 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 yards per play on the road this season.  Chicago’s secondary has allowed 16 passing touchdowns while only grabbing 4 interceptions this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Bears and Chargers on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia comes into this game off their bye, and since they lost their last game going into their off week, we expect a strong performance by the Eagles.  The team is also playing with revenge after losing 20-10 to Dallas at home as 7-point favorites back in Week 2.  Philadelphia’s performance in that game was pathetic, especially since they only had 7 rushing yards on 17 rushes in that game.  That was unexplainable for a Chip Kelly offense; Philadelphia averages 114 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  The Eagles will have much better success running the ball in this game as the Cowboys have allowed opponents to run for 569 yards on 4.7 yards per rush in their last five games.  Overall, the Dallas defense is allowing 27 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.       

Dallas was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Seahawks.  The Cowboys came flat off their bye the previous week, but that game was on the road.  At home, Dallas was expected to come with a much better effort.  They did that, but it still wasn’t enough as Seattle beat them 13-12.  Dallas has now lost five consecutive games, and with Matt Cassel at quarterback, the Cowboys’ offense is very limited.  He completed just 13 passes for 97 yards last week, and he’ll face another strong secondary that is holding opponents to just 6.3 yards per pass attempt.  Overall, the Eagles’ defense is only giving up 19.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  Philadelphia is rested and ready, so we’ll lay the points with the Eagles in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play EAGLES (-).

New York’s offense has been good this season.  The Giants have scored 20 points or more in seven of their eight games.  Overall, New York is averaging 26.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  The Giants have played four road games this season, and if we eliminate the poor performance in Philadelphia where they only scored 7 points, New York’s offense has been terrific.  They scored 26 points in Dallas, 24 points in Buffalo, and 49 points last week in New Orleans.  New York will face a terrible Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only average 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season.  Quarterback Eli Manning has thrown for 2,126 yards with an 17/4 touchdown/interception ratio this season. 

Tampa Bay’s offense has been strong at home where they are averaging 25 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Buccaneers have a good running game at home where they are averaging 138.7 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Tampa bay will run all over a New York defense that has given up 554 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per rush over their last four games.  Tampa Bay’s ability to run the ball will open up some big passing plays down the field for QB Jameis Winston who has completed 69.5% (41-59) of his passes for 616 yards on 10.4 yards per pass attempt over his last ten quarters of play.  The Giants’ defense is allowing 29 points per game on 6.3 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Oakland is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Pittsburgh.  Two weeks ago, the Raiders were off their bye and caught the Chargers in a major flat spot off back-to-back close losses.  The Raiders took advantage and won 37-29.  Last week, Oakland caught a fortunate break when Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick left the game with an injury on New York’s opening series.  Oakland’s defense had the luxury of facing Geno Smith who is simply a bad NFL quarterback.  The Raiders took advantage and won 34-20.  Quarterback Derek Carr has played back-to-back perfect games; he has completed 70.1% (47-67) of his passes for 622 yards with 7 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Carr is highly unlikely to repeat those performances, especially with this being an early start on the body clock against a Pittsburgh defense that is only allowing 17.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play at home this season. 

Pittsburgh was in a tough spot last week even though they were playing at home.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was returning from injury; his first game since September 27th.  He was rusty while throwing 3 interceptions against a strong Cincinnati defense.  The Steelers are now in a much better position to play up to their level, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that they’ll be playing an Oakland team in a major regression spot.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been better at home  where they are averaging 24.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Steelers will face an Oakland defense that is giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Pittsburgh is in a terrific bounce back spot while Oakland is set to regress, so we’ll lay the points with the Steelers in this early game on Sunday.     

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Miami was in a terrible spot for their game last Thursday night in New England.  The Dolphins went into that game off back-to-back perfect outings, so it was highly unlikely they would be able to duplicate those performances against the Patriots.  Miami got blown out 36-7, but that result is easily excusable.  The Dolphins are now set to come back with a peak performance, especially since they are playing with some legitimate revenge.  Miami got embarrassed 41-14 by Buffalo at home back in Week 3, and that result is one they are looking to atone for.  The Dolphins will control the line of scrimmage in this game with Lamar Miller running the football; he rushed for 234 yards on 7.3 yards per rush against Rex Ryan’s defense in two meetings last season.  Miami ran for 102 yards on 20 rushes in the first meeting despite trailing 27-0 at half time.  Overall, the Dolphins are averaging 5.0 yards per rush this season, and their ability to run the ball makes them live in this game.

Buffalo returns home off a 34-31 loss to the Jaguars in London two weeks ago.  The Bills come in off a bye, but that is nullified with Miami also having extra time after last playing on a Thursday night.  Buffalo is just 1-3 at home this season, so it’s not like they hold a big home field edge either.  The Bills will get Tyrod Taylor back at quarterback, but how effective will he be considering he hasn’t played in almost a month?  Buffalo’s defense has been poor at home this season; they’ve allowed 24 points or more three of their four games.  Overall, Buffalo is allowing 28 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home.  The Bills’ other two wins this season have come against the AFC South which is the worst division in football; the Colts and Titans are a combined 4-11 on the season.  Miami is in a good spot while playing with revenge, so we’ll take the Dolphins plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play DOLPHINS (+).

Minnesota is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at Ohio State.  The Golden Gophers went into their home game against Michigan last week off a bye, so all of their effort and focus was on that game.  The team also played in honor of their head coach Jerry Kill who announced his resignation just days before due to health reasons.  Minnesota put everything they had into that game, and they should have won the game.  The Gophers led with 5 minutes to play before giving up the lead.  They still had a chance to win the game on the final play from the half yard line, but they couldn’t get the ball into the end zone.  Off such a defeat, we expect Minnesota to play this game with a hangover, and against a strong opponent like Ohio State, that spells major trouble.  The Gophers’ offense has underperformed this season, especially on the road where they are only averaging 21.3 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  Minnesota will face an Ohio State defense that gives up just 15.1 points per game on 4.4 yards per play.  The Buckeyes allow just 12.6 points per game at home on 4.2 yards per play, so Minnesota’s offense is definitely up against it in this game.

Ohio State comes into this game with a perfect 8-0 SU record.  The Buckeyes have won three of their home games by 26 points or more with their average home win coming by 24 points per game.  Ohio State is averaging 38.5 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 29.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Ohio State has a lot of motivation to win by margin, especially since quarterback Cardale Jones will be back under center after J.T. Barrett’s suspension.  Jones was replaced by Barrett for ineffectiveness, but his second chance comes here and head coach Urban Meyer expects a big game:  “I would imagine as a competitor and a guy who wants to play, that this is his shot to be the starting quarterback at Ohio State.  We’ll worry about next week, next week.”  Ohio State also has plenty of motivation for a blowout win since they fell to #3 in this week's College Football Playoff rankings.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Ohio State on Saturday night.

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Syracuse is a bad football team, and we cashed a Best Bet selection against them last week in their 45-21 loss at Florida State.  The Orange now come into this game off five consecutive losses after opening the season at 3-0 SU.  Syracuse has only played two teams that are superior to them during their last five games, and the Orange got dominated in both of those games.  They lost to LSU and Florida State by a combined score of 79-45 while getting out-yarded 1,000-584.  The Orangemen's  defense has been shredded on the road this season where they are allowing 44.7 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  Overall, Syracuse has allowed 6.0 yards per play and 8.2 yards per pass in all games this season (versus opponents that average just 5.5 yppl and 7.1 ypp).  This will be Syracuse’s fourth road game in five weeks, so we expect their defense to get torched once again today.

Louisville has played three of their last four games on the road, so a home game will definitely bring out their best effort today.  The Cardinals have also played three consecutive stout defensive teams; Louisville was only able to score 58 total points on Florida State, Boston College, and Wake Forest.  But now they are taking a major step-down in defensive class against Syracuse, and the Cardinals are playing at home where their offense has been much better this season.  Louisville is averaging 27.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home with a strong 8.1 yards per pass.  Louisville also has a terrific defense that is only allowing 17.7 points per game on 4.2 yards per play at home.  In all games this season, the Cardinals have permitted just 21.9 points per game and 4.7 yards per play (versus opponents that average 27.8 ppg and 5.5 yppl).  Louisville is the superior team on both sides of ball and in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this home game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

Kentucky comes into this game off three consecutive losses because of their defense.  We won a Best Bet selection on Tennessee last week when they waxed Kentucky 52-21, and we’ll come right back and play against the Wildcats again this week.  Kentucky has given up 124 points in their last three games to Auburn, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.  Kentucky’s defense is injury riddled; they are without their best defensive lineman and their secondary is in shambles.  Kentucky’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 24.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite playing the likes of Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky.  Georgia has an excellent defense that is only giving up 20.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  At home, the Bulldogs are only allowing 16.8 points per game on 4.3 yards per play.

Georgia’s offense only scored 3 points last week, but that was against a stout Florida defense.  The Bulldogs are now taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against Kentucky, and we expect Georgia’s offense to break out in a major way.  The Bulldogs’ offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 34 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this year, and Georgia is averaging 29.4 points per game on 6.4 yards per play in all games this season (versus defenses that allow just 25.9 ppg and 5.6 yppl).  Georgia has a potent rushing attack that averages 213 yards per game at home while averaging a whopping 5.5 yards per rush.  They will now face a Kentucky rush defense that allows 199 yards per game on the ground on 5.7 yards per rush on the road this season.  Georgia is in a good bounce back spot for a big win, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play GEORGIA (-).

Mississippi State and Missouri both come into this game off a bye, but Missouri actually holds a slight scheduling edge.  The Tigers have played their last two games on the road, and their last home game was back on October 10th.  Mississippi State has played their last three games at home, and they haven’t played a road game since October 3rd.  The Bulldogs have never played in Columbia either, so they are not familiar with their surroundings.  Weekday games tend to favor the non-traveling team as well.  Mississippi State’s offense has been much worse on the road this season.  They are only averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play compared to 35.1 points per game on 6.8 yards per play overall.  The Bulldogs have played a terrible collection of defenses this season; those opponents are giving up 29.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  

Missouri has lost three straight games after opening the season with a 4-1 record.  The bye came at the perfect time for the Tigers as it has given them some time to regroup.  Missouri’s strength this season has been defense; they are giving up just 12.5 points per game on 4.0 yards per play.  At home, Missouri is allowing just 10 points per game on 4.0 yards per play.  Mississippi State’s offense is taking a major step-up in defensive class against Missouri in this game as the Tigers’ defense is allowing 17.1 points per game less and 2.0 yards per play less than the defenses the Bulldogs have faced this season.  Missouri is a very strong defensive home underdog, and since they are also in a good scheduling spot, we’ll take the points with the Tigers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play MISSOURI (+).

Indianapolis is having a disappointing season to say the least.  The Colts come into this game with a losing 3-4 SU record, and they are just 2-5 ATS with one being a backdoor cover against the Patriots.  Indianapolis has underperformed on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.  The Colts are giving up 26.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play on the road, and overall they have faced a schedule of opponents that have averaged just 24.6 points on 5.7 yards per play in all games this season.  The Colts’ defense has been gashed on the ground recently as they’ve allowed 301 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per rush in their last two games.  Indianapolis will now face a potent Carolina rushing attack with a mobile quarterback; the Panthers are averaging 165 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush at home this season.

Carolina is one of four remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, and we expect the Panthers to win once again tonight.  Carolina’s offense has been much improved this season; the Panthers are averaging 27 points per game.  This is a substantial improvement considering the Panthers averaged 22 points per game or less during the past three seasons.  Carolina’s defense has also played outstanding football this season; the Panthers are only allowing 18.3 points per game on 5.0 yards per play against offenses that average 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  At home, the Panthers hold opponents to just 4.7 yards per play.  The Colts' offense is only averaging 21.0 points per game this season (versus opponents that allow 24.4 ppg), so Indianapolis is up against it in this matchup.  We’ll lay the points with Carolina in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play PANTHERS (-).

Green Bay’s offense has been ho-hum over the last few weeks as they’ve scored 27 points or less in their last three games.  The Packers come into tonight’s game fresh off their bye, so we expect a peak offensive performance.  Overall this season, Green Bay is averaging 27.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 24.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Packers will be facing a stout Denver rush defense, so Green Bay’s game plan for this game will be to throw the ball a lot with Aaron Rodgers.  While the Broncos’ secondary has terrific seasonal numbers, they’ve faced non-elite quarterbacks like Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Josh McCown.  Now they are taking a monumental step-up in class against one of the best in the league in Rodgers, and since Green Bay will be throwing the ball a ton, we expect the Broncos’ secondary to have their worst game of the season.         

Denver’s offense has poor seasonal numbers, especially quarterback Peyton Manning.  However, this game sets up extremely well for Denver’s running game, especially since the Packers have allowed 4.7 yards per rush this season.  The Broncos will have a lot of success on the ground in this game, and once the Packers commit to the run, Manning will be able to hit some big passing plays downfield.  Like the Broncos, the Packers’ defense has faced a weak slate of opposing quarterbacks like Alex Smith, Nick Foles, and Colin Kaepernick.  Those three guys pose no passing threat, and yet the Packers were still gouged on the ground.  Manning and the Broncos’ offense will also be primed for a big scoring game, especially since they are home underdogs off their bye week.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Broncos on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

New York comes into this game with a 4-2 record, and one of those losses came last week at New England who is 7-0 on the season.  The Jets’ other loss came at home to Philadelphia; a game in which the Jets turned the ball over 4 times.  New York will be primed for a big effort in this game in Oakland, especially since they are playing off a loss.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game; they average 136.5 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Oakland’s defense has good seasonal numbers against the run, but they’ve played a weak slate of rushing attacks that only average 100 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.  The Jets’ ability to run the ball opens up the passing game for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who will throw on an Oakland secondary that has allowed 303.8 passing yards per game this season. 

Oakland was is in a terrific situational and scheduling spot for their game in San Diego last week.  The Raiders were off their bye, and they were catching the Chargers in a major flat spot off back-to-back close losses.  The Raiders took advantage and won 37-29.  Quarterback Derek Carr played a perfect game as he completed 77.4% (24-31) of his passes for 289 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Carr and the Oakland offense will be taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against the Jets in this game, and we expect major regression from the Raiders.  The Jets’ defense is only giving up 17.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  New York’s secondary is one of the best in the league as they hold opponents to just 211.7 passing yards per game on 5.3 yards per pass attempt.  New York is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll back the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play JETS (-).

New York’s offense has been good this season.  The Giants have scored 20 points or more in six of their seven games.  Overall, New York is averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Giants have played three road games this season, and if we eliminate the poor performance in Philadelphia where they only scored 7 points, New York’s offense has been good.  They scored 26 points in Dallas and 24 points in Buffalo.  The common thing about those two games is that they were played on artificial turf while the game in Philadelphia was on a natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track inside a dome, so the Giants’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.  New York will face a New Orleans secondary that has allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt this season.  Quarterback Eli Manning has thrown for 1,776 yards with an 11/4 touchdown/interception ratio this season. 

New Orleans also has a strong offense, especially at home where they are averaging 25.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 286 yards per game thru the air on 7.3 yards per pass attempt.  Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees has thrown for 1,871 yards this season while only throwing four interceptions on 253 pass attempts.  New Orleans’ offense will score their share of points against a New York defense that is allowing 22.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play this season.  Five of New Orleans’ seven games this season have had 48 points or more scored, so this total isn’t inflated at all.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Saints on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

The New York Giants are 4-1 over their last five games after opening the season with back-to-back losses.  Aside from one poor outing, the Giants’ offense has been pretty good this season; they’ve scored 20 points or more in six of their seven games.  Overall, New York is averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Giants have played three road games this season, and if we eliminate the poor performance in Philadelphia where they only scored 7 points, New York’s offense has been good.  They scored 26 points in Dallas and 24 points in Buffalo.  The common thing about those two games is that they were played on artificial turf while the game in Philadelphia was on a natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track inside a dome, so the Giants’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.            

New Orleans is in a poor situational spot for this game against New York.  The Saints come in off back-to-back easy wins in which they led wire-to-wire.  New Orleans beat a previously unbeaten Atlanta team 31-21 after jumping out to a 24-7 lead, and last week the Saints beat the Colts 27-21 after jumping out to a 27-0 lead.  New Orleans led by double digits for the majority of both games, and that simply sets them up to regress in this game.  The Saints’ defense has been poor once again this season as they’ve allowed 20 points or more in all seven of their games.  Overall, New Orleans is allowing 26.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Saints have been underdogs in five of their seven games this season; they lost outright to the Bucs and they needed overtime to escape the Cowboys by 3 points in the two games they were favored.  New York is simply the better team, so we’ll take the Giants plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play GIANTS (+).

Tennessee has played a brutal schedule this season.  The Vols have lost at Oklahoma, at Florida, versus Arkansas, and at Alabama.  Not many teams would survive that gauntlet, so we’re willing to forgive Tennessee for their poor 3-4 SU record, especially since those four losses have come by just a combined 17 points.  Tennessee’s offense only scored 14 points last week, but that was against the stout Alabama defense.  The Vols are taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against Kentucky as the Wildcats have given up 99 points in their last three games.  Tennessee’s offense is averaging 33.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 26.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Tennessee has a potent rushing attack that averages 209 yards per game and they will now face a Kentucky rush defense that allows 173 yards per game on the ground.

Kentucky comes into this game off back-to-back losses because of their defense.  They gave up 30 points to Auburn, and 42 points last week to Mississippi State.  Kentucky’s defense is also injury riddled and they will be without their best defensive lineman while their secondary is in shambles.  Kentucky’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 24.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite playing the likes of Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky.  Tennessee has a solid defense that is giving up just 24.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus opponents that average 31.9 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Tennessee has played well all season despite their losing record, and since they are the superior team, we’ll lay the points with the Volunteers in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play TENNESSEE (-).

Rutgers comes into this game off a 49-7 blowout home loss to Ohio State last week.  The Scarlet Knights gave up 528 yards of total offense with 281 of those yards coming on the ground.  Rutgers allowed a whopping 5.7 yards per rush, and now they will face a Wisconsin team that will duplicate Ohio State’s success on the ground.  Rutgers’ offense has faced poor defenses that are allowing 30.5 points and 5.9 yards per play as a group.  The Scarlet Knights are taking a monumental step-up in class for this game as the Wisconsin defense only gives up 11.1 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  That’s 19.4 points per game less and 1.2 yards per play less than the defenses that Rutgers has faced this season.  If we only use Wisconsin’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for Rutgers.  The Badgers allow just 4 points per game at home on 3.7 yards per play.

Wisconsin comes into this game with a 6-2 SU record, including a 4-1 mark at home.  The Badgers have won all four home games by 17 points or more with their average win coming by 32 points per game.  At home, Wisconsin is averaging 28.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 25.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Wisconsin has obviously faced the much tougher defensive opponents than Rutgers, and the Badgers have performed better.  On the road this season, the Rutgers’ defense is giving up 40 points per game on a horrendous 8.1 yards per play.  Overall, Rutgers has faced a weak schedule of offensive opponents that have averaged just average 27.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Badgers on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WISCONSIN (-).

Syracuse is a bad football team, and they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Florida State.  The Orange come into this game off back-to-back close losses, including a wild 44-38 triple-overtime loss at Virginia.  Syracuse has been involved in close games in four of their last five games overall, and that is going to finally catch-up to them here.  Syracuse only played one team that is superior to them during that span, and that resulted in a 34-24 home loss to LSU.  That game was not really close as LSU out-yarded Syracuse 425-281.  The Orange defense has been shredded on the road this season.  Syracuse is allowing 44.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  This will be Syracuse’s third road game in four weeks, and in a terrible spot, we expect their defense to get torched in this game.

Florida State comes into this game off their first loss of the season.  We won a Best Bet selection on Georgia Tech after they beat the Seminoles 22-16 on a crazy blocked field goal touchdown return on the final play of the game.  But we thought Florida State would lose that game, so the loss is certainly excusable.  Florida State is a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season with their average win coming by 22 points per game.  The Seminoles are averaging 40.7 points per game on 7.5 yards per play at home, and those numbers match-up perfectly with the atrocious defensive road numbers for Syracuse listed above.  Florida State also has a terrific defense that is only allowing 16.1 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Those strong numbers have come against offenses that average 26.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Florida State is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Miami was dreadful when they opened the season at 1-3.  That led to the firing of head coach Joe Philbin after their 27-14 blowout loss in London to the New York Jets.  Miami had a bye the following week, and in interim head coach Dan Campbell’s first game, the Dolphins won 38-10 in Tennessee.  The Dolphins followed that game with another blowout win last Sunday when they waxed Houston 44-26.  The back-to-back blowout wins look impressive, but keep in mind Miami beat two terrible teams that are a combined 3-10 on the season.  Miami is now taking a monumental step-up in class against the Patriots in this game; a team that is a perfect 6-0 on the season with a +87 point differential.  To compare, the Titans and Texans have a combined -65 point differential on the season.

New England is one of the five remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, and they’ll remain in that group after tonight’s game.  The Patriots have won every game by 7 points or more with their average home win coming by 16 points per game.  New England’s defense has been terrific at home this season while holding opponents to just 20.3 points per game.  The Patriots’ strength remains on the offensive side of the ball where they are averaging 35.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England’s offense was in a terrible spot for last week’s game against the Jets, and they still scored 30 points on just 353 yards of total offense.  The Patriots are in a much better spot for this game while Miami is set to regress off back-to-back blowout wins.  We’ll lay the points with New England in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Baltimore is having a disappointing season to say the least.  The Ravens come into this game with a terrible 1-5 SU record and they’ve yet to cover a spread as they are 0-5-1 ATS.  Baltimore has underperformed on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.  The Ravens are giving up 27 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Ravens’ secondary has been torched repeatedly; the unit has allowed 11 touchdown passes with just 3 interceptions while giving up 8.2 yards per pass attempt.  Those numbers have come against non-elite quarterbacks like Mike Vick, Colin Kaepernick, Josh McCown, and Derek Carr.  The Ravens will now face Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer who has thrown for 1,737 yards on 9.0 yards per pass attempt with a 14/5 touchdown/interception ratio this season.       

Arizona is just 1-2 after opening the season with three blowout wins.  The Cardinals return home off back-to-back road games with their last being an ugly 25-13 loss in Pittsburgh.  Arizona will be primed for a big effort in this game, and they get a perfect matchup to bounce back with a big win.  Arizona’s offense has been terrific this season; the Cardinals are averaging 33.8 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  They put those numbers up against opposing defenses that allow 24.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Arizona’s defense has also played outstanding football this season; the Cardinals are only allowing 19.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play against offenses that average 5.7 yards per play.  At home, the Cardinals only give up 16.7 points per game, so the undermanned Baltimore offense is up against it in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Arizona in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play CARDINALS (-).

Philadelphia looks like they’ve righted the ship after opening the season at 1-3.  The Eagles have won their last two games at home over the Saints and Giants.  Philadelphia has been known for their offense under Chip Kelly, but recently, the Eagles have been most impressive on the defensive side of the ball.  In their last two games against two explosive offenses, the Eagles held New Orleans and New York to 24 total points.  Overall, Philadelphia is allowing just 18.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play this season.  The Eagles put those numbers up against a group of offenses that average 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Philadelphia has also carried their defense on the road where they are giving up 22 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.          

Carolina comes into this game with a perfect 5-0 record after upsetting Seattle last week.  The Panthers’ offense has underperformed despite being undefeated.  Carolina is only averaging 5.2 yards per play against defenses that allow 5.6 yards per play.  The Panthers have faced a weak slate of defenses, so this game against Philadelphia will be a step-up in defensive class.  Carolina’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball.  The Panthers are only giving up 18.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play against offenses that average 21.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The two defenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a low-scoring game between the Eagles and Panthers on Sunday night.    

9* Play UNDER the total.

Atlanta was in a poor situational and scheduling spot for their road game in New Orleans the last time they played on a Thursday night.  The Falcons played well below expectations in that game, but we can easily excuse that loss.  Off that poor performance and with extra time to prepare for this game, we expect a peak effort from Atlanta against Tennessee.  The Falcons are averaging 30.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Atlanta will face a Tennessee defense that has been shredded at home this season.  The Titans are allowing 29 points per game at home on an ugly 6.4 yards per play.  Atlanta’s biggest offensive edge in this game will be on the ground as the Falcons run for 130 yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  Tennessee gives up 147 rushing yards per game at home on a whopping 5.3 yards per rush.          

Tennessee is 1-4 on the year after opening the season with a 42-14 blowout win in Tampa Bay.  Since that game, the Titans have been terrible, especially on offense.  Tennessee has scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games, and their offense will be hard-pressed to produce in this game.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota (MCL) is out along with starting center Brian Schwenke (leg).  The Titans now have a reshuffled offensive line after benching their right tackle for poor play.  Zach Mettenberger will start under center, but he’ll have to win this game thru the air because the Titans have a terrible running game that only averages 108 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush despite facing defenses that allow 122 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Atlanta only gives up 79 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush, so the Falcons have a monumental edge at the line of scrimmage.  Atlanta is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Falcons in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play FALCONS (-).

Cleveland had an extremely phony season in 2014.  The Browns were 7-4 at one point before ending the season with a 7-9 record overall.  They were thoroughly out-played on the field, yet they miraculously were three games above .500 almost three quarters of the way thru the season.  Cleveland comes into this game with a 2-4 record with their wins coming over the Titans and Ravens who are a combined 2-9 on the season.  Cleveland’s offense has decent seasonal numbers because they’ve played a terrible collection of defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play.  The Browns have a poor running game (92 yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush), and that makes them a one-dimensional offense with a poor passing quarterback.  The Browns’ defense has also been poor; they are giving up 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.7 yards per play.   

St. Louis came into this season ready to win, but the Rams are just 2-3 on the year so far.  However, they’ve played a brutal schedule with games against the Packers, Cardinals, Steelers who are a combined 14-4 on the season.  St. Louis comes into this game fresh off their bye, and they are catching Cleveland off back-to-back overtime games with their last being a 26-23 home loss to Denver.  The Rams are also playing their first home game since September 27th, so they will be primed for a big effort, especially since they lost their last home game.  St. Louis has a good defense that is allowing just 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents that average 6.1 yards per play.  St. Louis’ defense is taking a big step-down in offensive class against Cleveland in this game, and the Rams’ stop unit will dominate this game.  St. Louis is primed for their best while Cleveland is in a terrible situational and Scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Rams in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAMS (-).

Minnesota won a Best Bet for us last week in their win over Kansas City, and we’ll come right back with the Vikings again this week.  Minnesota has an outstanding running game that is led by Adrian Peterson.  The Vikings will control this game at the line of scrimmage as Minnesota averages 126 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  The Vikings put those numbers up on defenses that only give up 110 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush.  When Minnesota beat Detroit 26-16 back in Week 2, the Vikings ran for 199 yards on 42 attempts with Peterson running for 134 of those yards.  Minnesota’s ability to run the ball will open things up downfield for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who was highly efficient in the first meeting when he completed 77.8% (14-18) of his passes.

Detroit got their first win of the season last week when they outlasted the Bears 37-34 in overtime.  That win puts the Lions at 1-5 on the season, and it appears Detroit will only be able to beat bad teams this season.  Detroit is only averaging 20 points per game on 5.5 yards per play; those numbers are inflated because of last week’s game.  The Lions have scored 17 points or less in four of their six games.  Detroit’s defense has been horrendous as they are giving up 28.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Minnesota already beat Detroit handily this season, and since the Lions are a mess of a team, we’ll back the Vikings in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play VIKINGS (-).

Florida State is a perfect 6-0 SU on the season, but the Seminoles may be the most fortunate team in the country.  Florida State has escaped defeat in their last three games; they won at Wake Forest by only 8 points (24-16) as a 19-point road favorite, they only beat Miami Florida by 5 points (29-24), and last week FSU trailed Louisville in the third quarter before winning by a misleading 20 points (41-21).  Florida State will now take to the road where they have been unimpressive this season.  Against two inferior teams (Boston College and Wake Forest) that have putrid offenses, Florida State only won by a combined scores of 14-0 and 24-16.  The Seminoles are only averaging 19 points per game on 5.0 yards per play on the road this season.  This is a poor situational spot for Florida State to be laying points on the road, especially since they are off back-to-back home wins against teams perceived to be better than the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech comes into this game with just a 2-5 SU record after losing their last five games in a row.  The Yellow Jackets were favored in four of those five games, including at Notre Dame.  Now Georgia Tech is getting a full touchdown at home in this game which creates a lot of value, especially since my power ratings only make Florida State a 2-point favorite in this game.  The Yellow Jackets possess a potent rushing attack that averages 287 yards per game on 5.6 yards per rush.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech’s offense is averaging 37 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 28 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Georgia Tech is also playing with legitimate revenge after losing 37-35 to Florida State in the ACC championship game last season; they ran for 331 yards in that game.  We’ll take Georgia Tech plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Kansas State opened the season at 3-0, but that was mainly because of an easy schedule.  The Wildcats have gone 0-3 since, and that has coincided with stepping-up in class.  Kansas State battled Oklahoma State and TCU to the end, but they ended up coming up short in both games.  Those two games were high-scoring shootouts, and they were in a terrible spot for last week’s game against Oklahoma.  The Wildcats got embarrassed 55-0 at home in that game, and such a defeat often lingers, especially for a team that has mediocre talent at best.  Kansas State’s offense has underperformed this season despite playing a collection of weak defenses.  The Wildcats are only averaging 4.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.2 yards per play.  That’s a major problem, especially when your defense has given up 176 total points in the last four games.     

Texas comes into this game off a week of rest, so the Longhorns will be primed for a big effort.  This is also a game Texas has circled in red after getting shutout 23-0 at Kansas State last season.  The Longhorns hit rock bottom in that loss, and the embarrassing performance actually galvanized the team; Texas went on to win three straight games after facing the Wildcats.  Texas also comes into this game with confidence after beating Oklahoma in their last game, and this game has even more importance considering the Longhorns have lost their last two home games.  Texas has a power running game that is averaging 195 yards per game, and they will have a huge edge on the ground in this game considering Kansas State has allowed 474 rushing yards in their last two games.  Texas is in a terrific spot to get a big revenge win, so we’ll lay the points with the Longhorns in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play TEXAS (-).

Auburn comes into this game with a winning record at 4-2 SU, but getting those wins has not been easy.  The Tigers needed overtime to beat FCS Jacksonville State while getting out-yarded and losing the first down battle.  In fact, Auburn has been out-yarded in all four of their wins, and they’ve also lost the first down battle in every one of those games.  The Tigers are winning with smoke and mirrors, but they’ve been able to get away with it because of the weak opposition.  Auburn has been known for their explosive offense since head coach Gus Malzahn took over, but the offense has been non-existent this season.  The Tigers are only averaging 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Auburn will be facing an Arkansas defense that is taking a monumental step-down in offensive class in this game.  The Razorbacks are only giving up 23.2 points per game despite facing offenses that average 35.8 points per game.  Auburn averages 10.3 points per game less than the offenses Arkansas has been facing.

Arkansas is just 2-4 SU on the season, but they’ve played a brutal schedule.  The Razorbacks have played Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, at Tennessee and at Alabama; those teams are a combined 25-7 SU on the season.  Arkansas is now facing a much softer opponent in Auburn, and the Razorbacks come into this game fresh off their bye.  Arkansas will be playing their first home game since September 19th; that game was a loss.  The Razorbacks are also playing with revenge after getting smoked 45-21 at Auburn in their season opener last year.  Arkansas has a terrific running game that is averaging 177 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  They will have plenty of success on an Auburn defense that is allowing 198 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush.  Arkansas is in a good scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Razorbacks in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Northwestern opened the season with a perfect 5-0 record and a high ranking in the polls.  Since then, the Wildcats are 0-2 while losing those games by a combined score of 78-10.  It’s clear that Northwestern’s early record was phony and built on beating bad teams; their 16-6 win over Stanford certainly looks like a fluke now.  Northwestern’s first loss (38-0) came at Michigan, and that was excusable going into last week’s home game against Iowa.  But a 40-10 blowout loss on their home field is not excusable, and we expect that loss to linger.  Northwestern’s offense has been terrible all season; they only average 19.6 points per game on 4.4 yards per play.  Once they get down, it’s almost impossible for them to come back, and we expect that scenario to play out in this game against the Cornhuskers.        

Nebraska comes into this game with a 3-4 record, but the Cornhuskers could actually be 7-0 on the season.  Their four losses have come by a combined 11 points, and incredibly, all four losses have come on the final play of the game.  Nebraska won 48-25 in Minnesota last week, so they return home with momentum and confidence.  The Cornhuskers’ offense has been excellent this season, and they will control this game from the opening kick.  Nebraska is averaging 32.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 23.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Northwestern’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak group of offenses.  The Wildcats will face a Nebraska offense that is averaging 6.9 points per game more and 1.0 yards per play more than the offenses they have faced.  Nebraska is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Cornhuskers in this game on Saturday afternoon.    

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

California is a much improved team this season.  The Golden Bears come into this game with a 5-1 SU record with their lone loss coming at Utah who is 6-0 SU on the season.  A major reason for California’s success has been the play of their offense.  The Golden Bears have scored 24 points or more in every game this season while averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  California has put those numbers up against a collection of defenses that allow 32.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  California’s defense has decent seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 26.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Golden Bears are taking a major step-up in offensive class against UCLA’s offense in this game.

UCLA comes into this game off back-to-back losses, so they will be primed for a big effort tonight.  The Bruins have a potent offense that is averaging 34.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  UCLA put those numbers up against a group of defenses that only allow 28.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  UCLA’s offense averages 8.1 points per game more than the offenses California has faced this season.  The Bruins’ defense is a mess right now because of injuries, and they also come into this game in terrible form.  UCLA has allowed a total of 124 points in their last three games, and since California has a terrific offense, the Bruins’ defense will be in for another long game.  Look for a high-scoring game between California and UCLA on Thursday night.

10* Play OVER the total (California/UCLA).

Seattle has had a disappointing season so far as they come into tonight’s game with a 2-4 SU record.  The Seahawks have blown fourth quarter leads in all four of their losses this season, so Seattle could very well be undefeated.  Seattle’s defense has been the culprit as they’ve given up 51 fourth quarter points in their losses.  Off back-to-back tough losses because of their defense, we expect a big effort by the Seahawks stop unit in this game, especially since they are taking a big step-down in class.  Seattle faced the Bengals and Panthers in their last two games; those teams are a combined 11-0 SU on the season.  Overall, Seattle is allowing 20.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  So despite the losing record, Seattle has actually played above average football on the defensive side of the ball.

San Francisco is also 2-4 SU on the season, but the 49ers have been a much better team at home this season.  They are 2-1 at home where their defense has been terrific.  San Francisco has allowed a total of 40 points in their three home games this season.  The 49ers are only allowing opponents to score 13.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on their home field.  San Francisco put those numbers up against offenses that average 25.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  This has been a low-scoring series recently as the last five meetings have had just 24, 22, 40, 36, and 32 total points scored.  This is also an important divisional game for both teams, so we can expect some conservative play-calling, especially with just three days of preparation time.  The defenses are the best units on the field, so look for a low-scoring game between the Seahawks and 49ers on Thursday night.

9* Play UNDER the total (Seahawks/49ers).

Louisiana Lafayette has gone 9-4 SU in four consecutive seasons, so they are the epitome of a consistent team.  The Ragin’ Cajuns come into this game at just 2-3, so this is a big game if they hope to continue their recent trend.  UL Lafayette is 19-5 SU in Sun Belt play over the last three years, and they are 7-1 in their last eight conference road games.  Their offense has been terrific in the five years under head coach Mark Hudspeth, and his system has proven to work against Sun Belt opponents.  They scored 49 points on 526 yards of total offense in their lone conference game so far this season.  Overall, UL Lafayette is averaging 30.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Ragin’ Cajuns racked up 55 points on 521 yards of offense on Arkansas State last season, and scoring points won’t be an issue in this game since the Red Wolves’ defense is allowing 32 points per game this season.

Arkansas State returns home off a 49-31 win at South Alabama last Tuesday night, but their win wasn’t as decisive as the final score indicates.  Arkansas State actually trailed 31-20 in the fourth quarter before scoring 29 points with two touchdowns coming on the defensive side of the ball.  The Red Wolves are now playing a much better team, and they cannot rely on their defense to generate points once again.  Arkansas State’s defense is poor as indicated above, and they are taking a big step-up in offensive class against UL Lafayette in this game.  The Red Wolves had a season wins total of 7, and the Ragin’ Cajuns had a season wins total of 8 yet UL Lafayette is getting a full touchdown in this game.  The Ragin’ Cajuns also had extra time to prepare for this game since they last played on October 10th.  We’ll take the points with UL Lafayette in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play UL LAFAYETTE (+).

New York and Philadelphia will have the same game plan for tonight, and it will lead to a lot of points scored.  The Giants and Eagles both have strong rush defenses, but their secondaries are both terrible.  Both teams will throw the ball a lot in this game, and that means we’ll see a high-scoring game.  New York’s offense has been good this season; the Giants have scored 20 points or more in all five of their games.  Overall, New York is averaging 26.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Giants will be just the second strong offensive team Philadelphia has played this season.  The Eagles faced the Falcons in their season opener, and they gave up 26 points in that game.  Quarterback Eli Manning has been terrific this season while throwing for 1,417 yards with a solid 10/2 touchdown/interception ratio.  Manning threw for 429 yards on the Eagles the last time he faced them, and there’s no reason he won’t have another monster game against the Philadelphia defense.

Philadelphia’s offense finally broke out last week when they scored 39 points on the Saints.  The Eagles scored 29 of those points in the second half, and that outburst is a signal that the high-scoring Philadelphia offense is set to take off.  The Eagles reverted back to their fast pace in last week’s game as they had 87 offensive snaps.  Philadelphia and quarterback Sam Bradford get another favorable matchup in this game against the poor New York secondary.  The Giants are allowing 304.2 passing yards per game while giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt this season.  New York will also be without one of their better cornerbacks, Prince Amukamara, because of injury.  Bradford has attempted the fourth most passes in the NFL this season, and since the Giants’ secondary is weak and undermanned, the Eagles will have a lot of success throwing the ball in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Eagles on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

New England’s offense was sluggish in Dallas last week.  The Patriots only had 20 points thru three quarters before finishing the game with 30 points on 356 yards of total offense.  New England’s offense will be primed for a big game against the Colts, especially after the scandal of deflated footballs came to light after New England’s 45-7 win in the playoffs.  The Patriots will have no shame in scoring as many points as possible in this game, and when in motivational situations like this, the Patriots’ offense tends to pour it on.  Overall this season, New England is averaging 37.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Indianapolis’ offense has poor seasonal numbers, but those numbers can be ignored since quarterback Andrew Luck has missed the last two games.  Luck is slated to return for this game, and practice reports this week have said he was throwing the ball with “high-velocity” while going thru full workouts.  Luck and the Colts’ offense will also be primed for a big scoring game since the Patriots haven’t faced a good quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger way back in Week 1.  New England’s defense has feasted on Tyrod Taylor, Blake Bortles, and Brandon Weeden in their last three games.  The Over is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams with at least 52 points or more being scored every time (69, 59, 55, 83, 65, 62, 52) for an average of 63.6 total points per game.  Look for another high-scoring matchup between the Patriots and Colts on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total (Patriots/Colts).

Washington was is in a terrific situational and scheduling spot for their game in Atlanta last week.  The Redskins were catching the Falcons in a major flat spot, and we won a Best Bet selection on Washington even though they blew the game in overtime.  Off that overtime loss, Washington is now the team in the bad spot, and we’ll play against them for that reason.  The Redskins have also been hit with cluster injuries along their offensive line as their starting center and left tackle will both miss this game.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins will now face a stout New York front seven with a makeshift offensive line; that’s not a good thing for a limited signal caller.  Overall, Washington’s offense is only averaging 19.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  The Redskins will have limited scoring opportunities in this game against a Jets’ defense that is only giving up 13.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.   

New York comes into this game fresh off their bye after controlling the Dolphins in London.  The Jets are 3-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in their last home game against Philadelphia; a game in which the Jets turned the ball over 4 times.  New York will be primed for a big effort in front of their home fans, especially since their next home game after this comes on November 8th.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game, especially after Washington gave up 156 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per rush to the Falcons last week.  The Jets average 127.2 yards on the ground per game, and that opens up the passing game for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  New York is the better team and they are catching Washington at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

10* Play JETS (-).

Kansas City comes into this game off an inexcusable 18-17 home loss to the Bears last week.  The Chiefs were leading 17-3 at the half before getting out-scored 15-0 over the final 30 minutes of the game; it was 17-6 with 3:05 left to play in the game.  That loss was Kansas City’s fourth straight after winning their season opener in Houston.  The Chiefs also lost their best player, running back Jamaal Charles, to a season-ending knee injury.  After he got hurt, Kansas City’s offense did nothing on six drives against a terrible Chicago defense.  The Chiefs’ offense will struggle to move the ball consistently now, especially since Charles was also a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield.  Kansas City’s defense has underperformed this season.  The Chiefs are giving up 28.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.     

Minnesota is fresh off their bye, and since they went into their week of rest off a loss, the Vikings will be primed for a big effort in this game.  Minnesota is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season; they won those games by 10 and 17 points.  The Vikings have an outstanding running game that is led by Adrian Peterson; Minnesota averages 136.5 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush.  The Vikings put those numbers up on defenses that only give up 112.9 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will face a terrible Kansas City secondary that has allowed 13 touchdown passes this season.  Minnesota’s ability to run the ball will open things up downfield for Bridgewater.  The Vikings’ defense is giving up just 15 points per game on 5.1 yards per play at home this season, so they will stifle the pedestrian Kansas City offense.  We’ll lay the points with Minnesota in this game on Sunday afternoon.        

9* Play VIKINGS (-).

Chicago and Detroit will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The Bears were terrible on offense last week as they only had 6 points scored over the first 57 minutes of the game.  But they scored two touchdowns over the final three minutes to squeak out an 18-17 win in Kansas City.  Off that woeful offensive performance, Chicago’s offense is primed for their best scoring performance of the season indoors on a fast track in Detroit.  Quarterback Jay Cutler will face one of the worst secondaries in the league, and he has the weapons to exploit the Lions.  Detroit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 76.6% (111-145) of their passes for 1,340 yards on a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt.  Last week, Arizona’s offense took just 46 snaps and they scored 42 points on Detroit’s defense.  Overall, Detroit’s defense is allowing 27.6 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.

Detroit is 0-5 on the season, but the Lions have faced a tough schedule, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The Lions have faced a collection of defenses that are only allowing 19.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  Detroit is taking a monumental step-down in class as the Chicago defense is giving up 28.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  In two games against the Bears last season, the Lions’ offense scored 54 total points, and Chicago’s defense is even worse this season.  Detroit will be throwing the ball a lot, especially against a Chicago secondary that has given up 11 touchdown passes while ranking 28th in the NFL in passer rating allowed.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Bears and Lions on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Oregon is having a disappointing season to say the least; the Ducks come into this game at just 3-3 SU.  They also come in off a home loss to Washington State, so we can be assured of a good effort in this game tonight.  Oregon has played their two best games of the season when coming off a loss in their previous game; they beat Georgia State 61-28 and they won at Colorado 41-24 following losses.  The Ducks closed as a 5-point underdog at undefeated Michigan State, so the fact that Oregon is now a 3-point underdog at Washington makes very little sense.  My power ratings make Oregon a 1-point favorite in this game, so there is value with the Ducks, especially with them playing off a loss.  Overall, Oregon’s running game has been fantastic as always; they are averaging 319 yards per game on a whopping 6.3 yards per rush.  Oregon’s ability to run the ball will be the difference in this game.

Washington comes into this game off an upset win at USC; the Huskies were a 17-point underdog in that game.  But with the latest developments with the Trojans, that win may not hold much weight going forward.  The Huskies are in their second season under head coach Chris Petersen, and the overwhelming consensus was that they were in rebuilding mode.  Washington’s season wins total was only 4.5 games, so with a 3-2 SU record, the Huskies have overachieved greatly so far.  To compare, Oregon’s season wins total was 9.5 games which makes this pointspread inflated simply because of recent results.  In fact, Oregon was a 15-point road favorite in this game at the Golden Nugget when this line was originally released in June.  Washington’s defense has faced a weak slate of rushing offenses that only average 143 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush.  The Huskies’ defense will face a stiff challenge against Oregon’s potent rushing attack that averages 304 yards per game more and 2.3 yards per rush more than the offenses Washington has faced.  Oregon is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll take the value and the points with the Ducks in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play OREGON (+).

Michigan State comes into this game with a perfect 6-0 SU record, but they also own an 0-6 record against the spread.  That is a major red flag, especially for a team ranked as high as Michigan State.  The Spartans have played an extremely easy schedule, and four of their six games have been at home.  Michigan State has played a terrible slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 30 points per game on 5.8 yards per play as a group.  The Spartans’ offense has only averaged 31.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play against those opponents.  Now they will be taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against Michigan in this game, and Michigan State’s offense projects to have one of their worst games of the season.  The Spartans have had issues on their offensive line, and with Michigan’s ability to control the line of scrimmage, Michigan State will have a difficult time moving the ball consistently in this game.

Michigan has been tremendous since losing their season opener at Utah.  The Wolverines have won five straight games by a combined score of 160-14.  Granted, they haven’t played much in terms of competition, but their defense has been absolutely tremendous in those games, including  three consecutive shutouts.  The Wolverines’ defense has held their six opponents to a total of 38 points this season.  Overall, Michigan is only allowing 6.3 points per game on 3.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 26.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Michigan State will face a defense that gives up 23.7 points per game less and 2.7 yards per play less than the opponents MSU has played this season.  On the surface, the line looks ridiculously high, but my power ratings actually make Michigan a solid 10-point favorite in this game.  This is Michigan’s biggest game of the season as they’ve lost to their rival the last two years by a combined score of 64-17.  It’s payback time, and since Michigan is the better team, we’ll lay the points with the Wolverines in this home game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State both come into this game at 4-2 SU on the season, and their losses have come against good opponents.  Louisiana Tech lost to Western Kentucky and Kansas State while Mississippi State lost to LSU and Texas A&M.  The La Tech Bulldogs are used to playing close games, and in fact, five of their last six losses dating back to last season have come by 6 points or less with four of those losses coming by 3 points.  Head coach Skip Holtz has been a tremendous underdog coach going back to his South Florida days, so he’ll have his Bulldogs ready for this game.  Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense that is averaging 39.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  The Bulldogs are well-balanced as they are averaging 174 yards on the ground and 320 yards thru the air per game.  Louisiana Tech will be just the second potent offense that Mississippi State has faced all season; Texas A&M scored 30 points on 519 yards of offense on MSU.

Mississippi State also has a potent offense that averages 32.3 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  But the Bulldogs have played a terrible collection of defenses this season whose opponents are giving up 30.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech’s defense is holding opponents to 26.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play, so Mississippi State is taking a step-up in defensive class in this game.  MSU will be facing a defense that gives up 4.2 points per game less and 0.8 yards per play less than the opponents they’ve faced this year, yet MSU is still laying close to two touchdowns.  There is not much that separates these two teams, and since my power ratings only make Mississippi State a 9-point favorite, we’ll take the points and value with Louisiana Tech in this early game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LOUISIANA TECH (+).

Boise State is 5-1 on the season, but the Broncos should be a perfect 6-0.  They lost on a 4th and 7 Hail Mary touchdown pass at BYU in Week 2.  Since that defeat, Boise State has gone on a rampage, beating their opponents by a combined score of 204-24.  However, the Broncos played four terrible teams in those games, and their opponents all had one thing in common, a terrible defense.  In fact, Boise State has faced a collection of defenses this season that are allowing 34 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Broncos are taking a monumental step-up in defensive class in this game against Utah State, and they are doing so on the road.  This will be Boise State’s toughest game in over a month; they played BYU back on September 12th.   

Utah State has been terrific in their last two games; they’ve won by a combined score of 89-32.  Granted, they played two bad football teams, but those wins have them coming into this game with a lot of confidence and momentum.  The Aggies’ defense has been outstanding this season; they are holding opponents to just 19.2 points per game on 4.4 yards per play.  That’s 14.8 points per game less and 1.5 yards per play less than the defenses Boise State has faced this season.  Utah State is only allowing 102.4 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per rush.  Those numbers are significantly less than the defenses Boise State has faced.  The Broncos’ defensive opponents allow 215 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.  Utah State will bring their best effort in this game, and since they have the defense to control Boise State’s offense, we’ll take the points with the Aggies on Friday night.

10* Play UTAH STATE (+).

Atlanta was in a poor situational and scheduling spot for their home game against Washington last week.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Redskins in that game despite the Falcons winning in overtime.  We even predicted that Atlanta’s offense would have their worst production of the season, and they did just that by only scoring 12 points in the first 59 minutes of the game.  Off that expected poor performance, Atlanta’s offense will get back to their scoring ways in this game against the putrid New Orleans defense.  The Falcons are averaging 32.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.      

New Orleans is 1-4 on the season, and the Saints should actually be 0-5 as they were fortunate to beat the Cowboys in overtime a couple of weeks back.  The Saints’ defense has been atrocious despite playing weak offenses like the Buccaneers and Panthers.  Overall, New Orleans is giving up 28.6 points per game on an eye-popping 6.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 26.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints are taking a step-up in offensive class against the Falcons in this game as Atlanta is averaging 6.3 points per game more than the offenses New Orleans has faced so far this season.  The Saints’ offense has been inefficient all season; they’ve scored 19 points or less in three of their five games.  Atlanta is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Falcons in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play FALCONS (-).

Arkansas State finally has the same coach (Blake Anderson) for a second season in a row; their three previous coaches were all one and done.  The Red Wolves have been a consistent team over the last three seasons despite the coaching carousel.  They are 27-17 over their last 44 games, so they’ve developed a winning tradition in Jonesboro.  With 15 returning starters, the Red Wolves were projected to win 7 games this season.  They come into this game at 2-3, but they’ve played USC, Missouri, and Toledo.  Their two wins have come against teams on their level, and they won those games by a combined score of 119-42.  Arkansas State was also playing without their quarterback Terrance Knighten in the last three games, but he is expected to return for this game.  The Red Wolves have averaged 30.4 points per game with their backup freshman quarterback, and they’ll be even better with Knighten under center.   

South Alabama was projected to be a poor team this season.  The Jaguars season wins total was set at 3, and with an early 3-2 record, they’ve overachieved thus far.  South Alabama has played an extremely weak schedule so far, and their blowout losses at Nebraska and to North Carolina State look worse now considering how those two teams have played since.  Despite a winning record, South Alabama has been out-played on both sides of the ball.  The Jaguars are only averaging 22.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Their defense has given up 32.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  South Alabama is a phony team, and they are playing one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt conference.  We’ll back Arkansas State in this game on Tuesday night.      

9* Play ARKANSAS STATE (-).

Pittsburgh is 2-2 SU and 3-0-1 ATS this season.  However, that pointspread record is phony as they scored with 2 seconds left against New England, and they covered a game in which they scored all of 12 points.  The Steelers blew a big divisional game last Thursday night at home against the Ravens, and it was evident from watching that game, that the Steelers are a one-dimensional team with Mike Vick at quarterback.  Vick still has mobility, but he cannot throw the ball downfield at all.  That element is a big part of Pittsburgh’s offense with Ben Roethlisberger under center, and it maximizes the skills of their wide receivers.  With Vick at quarterback, the Steelers are limited and highly predictable.  Pittsburgh will lean heavily on running back Le’Veon Bell, but that will allow the San Diego defense to contain the Steelers’ offense in this game.

San Diego is 2-2 on the season, and the Chargers will finally play their first back-to-back home game of the season.  San Diego beat the Browns last Sunday after returning home off back-to-back road losses.  Overall this season, San Diego’s offense has played good football as they are averaging 24 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Chargers put those numbers up against opposing defenses that allow 23.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 6.0 yards per play on the road this season, so the Chargers’ offense will move the ball consistently in this game.  San Diego will also get Antonio Gates back from suspension, and he is a vital part of the Chargers’ offense.  We’ll back San Diego in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CHARGERS (-).

San Francisco was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Packers.  The 49ers were returning home off back-to-back blowout road losses while catching Green Bay on a short week in the ultimate flat spot.  Still, with all that in their favor, San Francisco played a terrible game and lost 17-3.  San Francisco’s on-field play has been atrocious, and it appears the team is in for a long season.  The 49ers have been out-played on both sides of the ball, and their offense is downright pathetic.  San Francisco is only averaging 12 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  They’ve scored just 10 total points in their last two games.  San Francisco’s defense has been terrible as they are giving up 27.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  After holding the Vikings to just 3 points in their season opener, the 49ers have given up 107 points in their last three games. 

New York has won back-to-back games after opening the season with back-to-back losses.  The Giants return home with momentum and confidence, and their offense will move the ball at will on the poor San Francisco defense.  New York is averaging 25.5 points per game with their offensive strength coming thru the air.  Quarterback Eli Manning has thrown for 976 yards with a 7/1 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will be facing a 49ers secondary that has allowed a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  New York’s defense shouldn't have any problem in shutting down the pedestrian San Francisco offense.  The Giants are only giving up 20.5 points per game despite playing a group of offenses that average 26.3 points per game.  New York is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Giants in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play GIANTS (-).

Arizona was in a terrible spot for their home game against St. Louis last week, and we cashed a Best Bet on the Rams in their 24-22 outright win as 7-point underdogs.  Off that expected poor performance, Arizona is now in a terrific bounce back spot for this game in Detroit.  The Cardinals are the superior team by a wide margin, and we expect them to play up to their level in this game.  Arizona’s offense has been terrific this season; the Cardinals are averaging 37 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  Quarterback Carson palmer has been outstanding while throwing for 1,155 yards with a 10/3 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  Arizona’s defense has also played extremely well as they are only allowing 18.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  All three of Arizona’s wins this season have come by 12 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 25.7 points per game which shows how dominating they’ve been.      

Detroit returns home after a terrible performance in Seattle where they actually should have won the game.  The Lions fumbled the ball on the goal line while going in for the game-winning touchdown with just over a minute left to play.  That stinging loss moved Detroit to 0-4 this season, and their season appears to be spiraling out of control.  The players have called out their coaches, and that is a clear indication that there’s turmoil inside the Lions locker room.  Detroit is only averaging 16.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play despite facing a collection of defenses that allow 20.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Detroit’s defense has been even worse as they are giving up 24 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Arizona is in a focused spot, and since Detroit is simply a mess of a team, we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CARDINALS (-).

Buffalo enters this game off their worst performance of the season last week.  The Bills lost 24-10 at home to the Giants after their offense put-up just 313 yards of total offense.  Prior to that bad offensive game, Buffalo had scored 27 points or more in their previous three games.  Overall this season, the Bills are averaging 27.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Buffalo’s offense will get back on track in this game against a poor Tennessee defense.  The Titans have allowed 25.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus opposing offenses that only average 19.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Tennessee is taking a big step-up in offensive class in this game as Buffalo’s offense is averaging 7.8 points per game more than the offenses the Titans have faced this season.       

Tennessee comes into this game off their bye week, and home underdogs off a week of rest know they need to game plan to score more points.  The Titans’ offense has played above average this season, so it’s not like they need to do things different in order to score points in this game.  Tennessee is averaging 29.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Buffalo’s defense is allowing 23 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season, and aside from the Patriots, they’ve played three struggling offenses.  Buffalo and Tennessee both have mobile quarterbacks that can make plays with their legs, and that only opens things up for big plays downfield.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Bills and Titans on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington comes into this game with a lot of momentum after winning 23-20 at home in the final seconds last week.  The Redskins are now 2-2 on the season, and they’ve played much better football than expected.  Washington’s lone road game this season resulted in a 32-21 loss in New York against the Giants, but that loss can be excused as the Redskins were playing a Thursday night game on a short week after winning 24-10 as home underdogs.  So if we eliminate that game, Washington looks good at 2-1 with their lone loss being a 7-point defeat.  Washington’s defense, especially their defensive line, is very good, and that unit will have a major advantage against the patched-up Atlanta offensive line.  The Falcons’ line has played well so far this season, but that’s because they’ve played four weak defensive fronts which has allowed QB Matt Ryan to gash opponents thru the air.  Washington’s defense is only giving up 19.7 points per game, so there’s a good chance the Falcons’ offense will have their lowest scoring output to date in this game.     

Atlanta comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 record both SU and ATS.  Atlanta has scored 24 points or more in every game with their last being a 27-point demolition of Houston.  The Falcons have scored 87 points in their last two games, but with a step-up in defensive class, we expect major regression in this game.  Fortunately for the Falcons, they’ve been able to out-score their opponents because their defense has played below average football this season.  Atlanta is allowing 23.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  As mentioned above, the Falcons’ offense will face a stout Washington defense, so this game will be much different than their last two games.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Washington on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

California and Utah both come into this game with perfect records, but of the two, Utah has clearly played the much tougher schedule.  California is 5-0 SU on the season, but the Golden Bears have played an extremely weak slate of opponents, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  California’s offense is averaging 43.4 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  However, those numbers have come against a collection of defenses that are giving up 35.2 points per game on 5.9 points per game.  California is taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against Utah in this game.  The Utes are holding opponents to just 18.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  California will now be playing their third road game over the past four weeks while also playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.

The Utes are a perfect 4-0 SU on the season, and they’ve been extremely impressive.  Utah own home wins over Michigan and Utah State, and an eye-opening 62-20 road win at Oregon.  The Utes comes into this game off their bye, so they will be fresh and ready to roll.  That’s a big scheduling edge over California considering what we mentioned above.  Utah is averaging 38.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 26.4 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Utah’s defense has been tremendous this season as mentioned above; they are allowing 16.5 points per game less than the defenses California has faced this season.  California is not nearly as good as their 5-0 SU record indicates, so we’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play UTAH (-).

Florida comes into this game with a perfect 5-0 record, and the Gators are the flavor of the week in the media.  Florida won 38-10 as 6.5-point home underdogs to Mississippi last Saturday, but now they are laying points on the road.  That’s way too much of an overreaction to last week’s results.  The Gators have played in three consecutive tough conference games.  They won 14-9 at Kentucky and then they came back from a 27-14 deficit with just over four minutes to play to beat Tennessee 28-27 the following week.  Those two games came before last week’s upset win over Mississippi; the Gators are ripe for a letdown this week.  Florida is an extremely young team that is led by freshman, including quarterback Will Grier.  The Gators’ offense has faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 28.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play as a group.  Florida is taking a monumental step-up in defensive class in this game, and we do not expect the Gators’ offense to have much success.   

Missouri has been a terrific team over the last couple of seasons.  The Tigers are 27-6 in their last 33 games, including 4-1 so far in 2015.  Missouri’s strength over the last few years has been on the defensive side of the ball; they’ve allowed 23.5 points per game or less in four of the last five seasons.  The Tigers’ defense has been phenomenal this season; they are giving up just 12 points per game on 373 total yards per game.  Missouri is holding their opponents to just 4.0 yards per play, so teams have had an extremely difficult time moving the football consistently on the Tigers.  Missouri’s defense allows 16.9 points per game less and 1.5 yards per play than the defenses Florida has faced this season.  Missouri has dominated this series over the last two seasons, winning by a combined score of 78-30.  With Florida overvalued and in a terrible scheduling and situational spot, we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

Georgia Tech comes into this game with a 2-3 record after losing their last three games.  The Yellow Jackets were favored in all three of those games, including at Notre Dame.  Now they will face a Clemson team that just beat Notre Dame at home as 3-point favorites.  However, Georgia Tech is getting a full touchdown in this game which creates a lot of value if we compare the lines from the common opponent.  The Yellow Jackets possess a potent rushing attack that averages 311.8 yards per game on a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech’s offense is averaging 41.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 30.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Georgia Tech’s defense has also played well despite the losing record.  The Yellow Jackets are giving up 23.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. 

Clemson is off their big spotlight home win over Notre Dame last week, so this is not a good scheduling spot at all.  This is also a poor situational spot for Clemson as they had a bye prior to their game last week, and now they have to face Georgia Tech’s triple option with just one week to prepare.  Clemson lost 28-6 to Georgia Tech last season after giving 251 yards on the ground.  Clemson had a veteran defense with experience against the triple-option last season, and they still couldn’t stop it.  The Tigers are an extremely talented team, but they are young and inexperienced with only 3 returning starters on defense this season.  Clemson is 4-0 this season, but the Tigers are 0-2 against the spread versus Louisville and Notre Dame.  Clemson is simply overvalued in this game because of recent results, and since they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot, we’ll take the points with the Yellow Jackets on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Washington and USC both come into this game off a bye, but they went into their off week from opposite directions.  Washington lost 30-24 at home to California while USC won 42-14 at Arizona State.  The Huskies are in their second season under former Boise State head coach Chris Petersen, so they are still in rebuilding mode.  Washington comes into this game with a 2-2 record, but they’ve played just one road game so far this season.  The Huskies were terrible in that road game as they scored just 13 points while gaining 179 yards of total offense in their loss at Boise State.  Overall, Washington has faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 26.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play as a group.  The Huskies are are taking a monumental step-up in defensive class in this game as USC gives up just 17.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play. 

USC bounced back strong in their last game after getting upset at home by Stanford in their previous game.  The Trojans are 3-1 on the season with their three wins coming by 49, 50, and 28 points.  USC has been dominant on both sides of the ball; they are averaging 46.7 points per game on a whopping 8.1 yards per play.  Washington’s defense has faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that are only averaging 25.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  As mentioned above, USC’s defense has been stout, so they will shutdown the pedestrian offense of Washington in this game.  Trojans’ signal caller Cody Kessler has been the best quarterback in the country this season; he is completing 73% (89-122) of his passes on 10.6 yards per pass attempt with an incredible 15/1 touchdown/interception ratio.  USC is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Thursday night. 

9* Play USC (-).

Detroit was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Broncos.  The Lions were playing their first home game of the season in primetime while catching Denver on back-to-back road games after a miraculous come from behind win in Kansas City.  The Lions only trailed by 2 points late in the fourth quarter before imploding and losing 24-12.  After that loss, the players started to call out their coaches in the media, and that’s not a good sign.  That is a clear indication that there’s turmoil within the Lions locker room, and since their on-field play has been atrocious, Detroit appears to be in for a long season.  The Lions come into this game with an 0-3 record after being out-played on both sides of the ball.  Detroit is only averaging 18.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play despite facing a collection of defenses that allow 21 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Detroit’s defense has been even worse as they are giving up 27.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Seattle bounced back strong last week when they notched their first win of the season.  The Seahawks beat the Bears 26-0 after losing in St. Louis and in Green Bay to begin the season.  Seattle comes into this game with momentum and confidence, and their offense will move the ball at will on the poor Detroit defense even without Marshawn Lynch; he will miss this game with injury.  So far this season, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown 30 passes or more in all three games.  The Seahawks haven’t been reliant on Lynch, so his absence here isn’t a detriment, especially since Detroit’s defensive strength is stopping the run.  Wilson will face a Lions secondary that has allowed 78.2% (79-101) completions for 882 yards on a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt.  Seattle is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

Dallas and New Orleans have major issues on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cowboys gave up 26 points to the Giants and 39 points to the Falcons this season.  The common thing about those two offenses is they both possess good quarterbacks with strong passing attacks.  Dallas held Philadelphia to just 10 points, but the Eagles are a run-based offense, so that defensive effort can be ignored.  Dallas will face another good quarterback (Drew Brees) and a strong passing offense in New Orleans, and the defensive results will resemble their two games against New York and Atlanta.  The Cowboys’ secondary allowed Eli Manning and Matt Ryan to complete 44 passes for 478 yards, and both of those games came at home.

New Orleans’ pass defense is absolutely atrocious, and they’ve been torched in their three games so far this season.  The Saints have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.1% (53-84) of their passes for 829 yards on a whopping 9.9 yards per pass attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Overall, the New Orleans’ defense is allowing 28 points per game on an ugly 6.8 yards per play against offenses that only average 5.8 yards per play.  Dallas will have Brandon Weeden under center once again with Tony Romo out with injury.  Weeden was excellent last week as he completed 84.6% (22-26) of his passes for 232 yards.  With two capable offense facing two poor defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Cowboys and Saints on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

St. Louis came into this season ready to win.  The Rams won their season opener over Seattle, but the last two weeks have resulted in losses.  Their defeat in Washington in Week 2 was expected; we had a Best Bet winner on the Redskins in that game.  Last week, St. Louis lost at home in an ugly 12-6 game to Pittsburgh.  Off back-to-back losses, the Rams will hit the road and play a divisional game against the Cardinals in Arizona.  And the setup couldn’t be any better for St. Louis.  The Rams will bring their peak effort in this game, and their excellent defense will lead the way.  St. Louis is allowing just 22.3 points per game on 325 yards of total offense.  The Rams are giving up just 5.2 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  St. Louis is tied for the league lead in sacks with 13, and they’ve only allowed 2 passing touchdowns in three games this season.      

Arizona comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 record, but the Cardinals have played the easiest schedule in the league so far.  Arizona owns wins over the Saints, Bears, and 49ers who are a combined 1-8 on the season.  Those three teams also have terrible defenses that are allowing 31.3 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense is taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against the St. Louis defense in this game as the Rams are allowing 9 points per game less and 1.4 yards per play less than the defenses the Cardinals have faced.  Arizona is set to regress sharply in this game, especially after dominating their last two games while winning by a combined score of 95-30.  This is an exceptional spot to play against Arizona, and since St. Louis is primed for their best, we’ll take the points with the Rams in a game they have a very good shot at winning outright.  

10* Play RAMS (+).

Cleveland had an extremely phony season in 2014.  The Browns were 7-4 at one point before ending the season with a 7-9 record overall.  They were thoroughly out-played on the field, yet they miraculously were three games above .500 almost three quarters of the way thru the season.  Cleveland comes into this game with a 1-2 record despite playing the Jets, Titans, and Raiders.  The Browns have underperformed on both sides of the ball against those three opponents.  Cleveland is only averaging 19.3 points per game against those defenses that give up 22.7 points per game as a group.  The Browns have no consistency at quarterback as they’ve rotated between Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown; the latter will start this game.  Cleveland has no running game whatsoever (86.3 yards per game), and that makes them a one-dimensional offense with a pair of poor passing quarterbacks.  The Browns’ defense has also been poor; they are giving up 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.   

San Diego returns home off back-to-back road losses, so we can be assured of a peak effort in this game.  The Chargers have been terrific in this situation in their two years under head coach Mike McCoy.  San Diego is 4-1 SU at home when playing off a road loss; they’ve won those games by an average of 8.8 points per game.  Overall this season, San Diego’s offense has played good football as they are averaging 22 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Chargers put those numbers up against opposing defenses that allow 21 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  San Diego is taking a major step-down in defensive class for this game against Cleveland, so the Chargers’ offense will breakout in this game after scoring just 33 total points in their last two games.  San Diego gets the perfect opponent to notch an easy win, so we’ll lay the points with the Chargers on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Carolina has played an extremely easy schedule so far, and they’ve capitalized by going 3-0 in those games.  Fortunately for the Panthers, they get another poor opponent in this game against Tampa Bay.  Carolina has won games this season by controlling the ball and the clock while allowing their defense to dominate their overmatched opponents.  The Panthers’ defense is only giving up 16 points per game on 315 yards of total offense.  Carolina is holding opponents to just 4.6 yards per play.  The Panthers have an excellent run-stuffing defense that only allows 75.7 yards per game on the ground on just 3.3 yards per rush.  Their ability to dominant the line of scrimmage is the key factor in this game, especially against a poor offensive team that has had trouble running and throwing the ball consistently.      

Tampa Bay has also played a weak slate of opponents, but they are just 1-2 on the season.  The Buccaneers are in rebuilding mode with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston under center.  Winston has faced three poor defensive teams that are allowing an average of 24.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Winston and the Tampa Bay offense are only averaging 16.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Now they will be facing the best defense they’ve seen all season; Carolina allows 8.6 points per game less and 1.4 yards per play less than the defenses Tampa Bay has faced.  Tampa Bay’s defense has also been poor as they are giving up 26.7 points per game this season.  Carolina is simply the superior team with a massive edge on the line of scrimmage, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play PANTHERS (-).

Hawaii comes into this game with a 2-2 record with both of their wins coming at home.  The Rainbow Warriors have shown no ability to play well on the road this season as they’ve lost their two away games by a combined score of 66-0.  That trend of playing poorly on the road has been a constant in recent seasons; they’ve lost by margins of 38, 28, 39, 47, 38, 35 in prior away games.  Hawaii will be playing their second consecutive game on the mainland, and this will also be their third road game in the last four weeks.  The Rainbow Warriors have no chance to match points with the potent Boise State offense, especially since Hawaii is only averaging 18.7 points per game on 296.7 yards of offense per game.  Overall, Hawaii is only averaging 4.9 yards per play this season, so they will have difficulty moving the ball consistently in this game.  

Boise State is 3-1 on the season, and they actually should be a perfect 4-0.  The Broncos lost on a Hail Mary touchdown pass to BYU in their second game of the season.  Boise State has won their last two games by a combined score of 108-14, and they will notch their third consecutive blowout win in this game.  Boise State is averaging 37 points per game on 435.7 yards of offense per game.  Overall, the Broncos are averaging 5.7 yards per play, so they will move the ball at will on a weak Hawaii defense that got steamrolled in both of their road games this season.  Boise State’s defense has been tremendous this season; they are holding opponents to just 15.5 points per game on 282.7 yards of offense per game.  The Broncos allow just 4.2 yards per play on defense, and that has come against better offenses than Hawaii.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Saturday night.

10* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Colorado State comes into this game with a 2-2 record, but the rest of the Rams’ season doesn’t project to be too good.  The Rams are a rebuilding football team with a new head coach in Mike Bobo who was the offensive coordinator at Georgia for the last eight years.  While Bobo inherited 15 total returning starters, the Rams lost their starting quarterback and running back plus their top two tacklers from last year’s 10-3 team.  The Rams have serious issues at quarterback; Nick Stevens has completed just 59.6% of his passes with a 9/4 touchdown/interception ratio.  Bobo has Stevens starting simply because the Rams don’t have much behind him.  Colorado State is in a bad situational spot for this game as they come into this game off three consecutive emotional games.  They lost back-to-back overtime games to Minnesota and Colorado, and then last week they won 33-31 at UTSA.  This will also be their third straight game away from home while facing the best defense they’ve seen so far this season.   

Utah State comes into this game off a bye, so they’ve had an extra week to prepare.  That’s a good thing since they will be starting sophomore quarterback Kent Myers for the first time.  But the team and head coach Matt Wells have faith in Myers: “His teammates are very, very confident in him,” Wells said.  “He brings athleticism and he throws the ball well whether it’s down the field, in the pocket or on the move. I like where he’s at.”  Utah State will rely on their rushing game, and they will have success against a Colorado State defense that is allowing 166.7 rushing yards per game this season.  The Aggies’ defense will be the most dominating unit on the field.  Colorado State needs to run the ball to have success, but Utah State only gives up 107 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per rush.  Utah State holds a significant edge at the line of scrimmage, and since they come into this game in a terrific scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Aggies on Saturday night.

9* Play UTAH STATE (-).

Iowa comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 record, but the Hawkeyes have faced a pretty easy schedule so far.  Iowa owns wins over FCS Illinois State, rival Iowa State 31-17, Pittsburgh, and a terrible North Texas team.  Iowa was challenged in just one game, and that came in their 27-24 home win over Pittsburgh.  We won a Best Bet selection against Iowa in that game as the matchup was a bad one for the Hawkeyes.  The same applies in this game against Wisconsin, so we’ll play against Iowa once again.  Iowa and Wisconsin are built in a similar way as they both like to run the ball while playing physical defense.  But the Badgers simply do it better.  Iowa has faced four poor defenses that are allowing 30.3 points and 178.3 rushing yards per game as a group.  Now the Hawkeyes will be facing a Wisconsin defense that is only giving up 9.5 points per game and 82.7 rushing yards per game.  That’s 20.8 points per game less, and 95.6 rushing yards per game less than the defenses that Iowa has faced this season.  Iowa is taking a major step-up in class against the Badgers.  

Wisconsin comes into this game with a 3-1 record; their lone loss came against Alabama in their season opener.  The Badgers have won their last three games by a combined score of 114-3; they haven’t just been winning, they’ve been dominating.  Wisconsin has faced much tougher defensive opponents than Iowa, and the Badgers have performed better.  Wisconsin is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus opponents that only give up 5.1 yards per play.  The Badgers will have success moving the ball on an Iowa defense that has faced four terrible offensive teams that average just 21.6 points per game on 5.0 yards per play combined.  Overall, Wisconsin is averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  My power ratings make Wisconsin a 12-point favorite in this game, so there’s tremendous value in laying less than a touchdown with the Badgers on Saturday afternoon.            

9* Play WISCONSIN (-).