Seattle comes into this game with a 7-4 SU record after beating Arizona 19-3 on Sunday.  The Seahawks have played much better football than a team with 4 losses would suggest.  Seattle ranks #6 in overall efficiency metrics despite the so-so record.  The Seahawks have played above average football on both sides of the ball.  Seattle’s offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing just 19.2 points per game and 5.2 yards per play.  Those strong defensive numbers have come against offenses that are averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense will be a stern test for San Francisco’s offense considering the 49ers have faced a weak group of defenses that are giving up 23.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.

San Francisco is off another pedestrian win after beating Washington 17-13 on Sunday.  The 49ers only beat the Giants 16-10 the week before despite owning a +4 turnover margin.  Over their past four games, the 49ers have benefitted from 11 turnovers by their opponents yet they lost a game and won the others by just 6, 3, and 3 point margins.  San Francisco’s offense has not played good football at all this season.  The 49ers are averaging just 20.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  And as noted above, San Francisco has played weak defenses.  The 49ers will now face a Seattle defense that is allowing 4.7 points per game less than the opponents the 49ers have faced.  Seattle is the better team, so we’ll take the points with the Seahawks in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

Philadelphia’s offense has been terrific all season, and the Eagles have not skipped a beat with Mark Sanchez at quarterback.  Philadelphia has scored 30 points ore more in seven of their eleven games this season; they’ve scored 20 points or more in every game.  Overall, the Eagles are averaging 31.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Philadelphia’s passing attack has been virtually unstoppable while averaging 293.1 yards per game on 7.0 yards per pass attempt.  The Eagles will face a weak Dallas secondary that is allowing an ugly 7.4 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only average 6.8 yards per pass attempt.  Dallas gave up 328 passing yards to the struggling Giants last week, so the Eagles will have a lot of success throwing the ball in this game.     

Dallas also has a strong offense that is averaging 26.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Cowboys have a fantastic running game that is averaging 149.6 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.  Dallas’ ability to run the ball has allowed QB Tony Romo to make big passing plays downfield all season.  Romo is completing 68.8% of his passes while throwing for a whopping 8.5 yards per pass attempt.  The Cowboys will have a lot of success against a Philadelphia defense that has been shredded on the road this season.  The Eagles are giving up 30.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play away from home.  We expect both offenses to go up and down the field in a high-scoring game between the Eagles and Cowboys on Thursday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Chicago has won back-to-back games after suffering thru a 3-game losing streak.  The Bears have some confidence now, and since they win with their offense, we expect another strong performance in this game.  Chicago’s offense has actually played better on the road this season where they are averaging 23.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Bears have a strong passing attack that will be able to rack up yards thru the air on a Detroit secondary that is in terrible current form.  The Lions have allowed 655 passing yards in their last two games; the Bears have thrown for 250 yards or more six times this season.  In their last two games, Detroit’s defense allowed 6.1 and 6.0 yards per play.  On a short week, the Lions have had no time to fix their problems, so we expect another poor performance from Detroit’s defense in this game.

Detroit’s offense has struggled recently, scoring just 35 total points over their last three games.  But the Lions were playing three strong defenses as the Cardinals rank #5, the Dolphins rank #6, and the Patriots rank #10 in defensive efficiency metrics.  Detroit gets a huge defensive class relief in this game as the Bears rank #23 in defensive efficiency.  Overall, the Bears’ defense is allowing 27.5 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Chicago’s defense has been even worse on the road where they are allowing 31.5 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  We expect both offenses to be the best units on the field, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Bears and Lions on Thursday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore comes into this game fresh off their bye, so they’ll be ready for a good performance, especially since they are just 1-2 in their past three games.  The Ravens have played good offense all season as they’ve scored 21 points or more in eight of their ten games.  Overall, Baltimore is averaging 26.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Ravens’ offense has been slightly better on the road where they are averaging 26.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Baltimore will have offensive success in this game against a poor New Orleans defense that is allowing 25.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that only average 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

New Orleans is just 4-6 on the season, and the Saints come into this game off back-to-back home losses.  The Saints lost both of those games because of poor offensive execution, especially in their last game when they scored just 10 points on the Bengals.  New Orleans had just 330 yards of total offense in that game, and they scored points on just one of their three trips inside the red zone.  The Saints are desperate for a win, so we expect their offense to come out firing from the start tonight.  New Orleans will score their share of points on a Baltimore defense that is giving up 25.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play on the road this season.  In their past two road games, the Ravens gave up a total of 70 points to the Bengals and Steelers.  The Saints’ offense is significantly better than both of those two teams.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Ravens and Saints on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Dallas comes into this game off their bye, so they’ll be ready with a strong performance.  The Cowboys already beat New York 31-21 earlier this season, and there’s no reason Dallas shouldn’t match that offensive production.  The Cowboys racked up 423 yards of total offense in that game with 156 of those yards coming on the ground.  Dallas will run all over the Giants once again, especially since they’ve allowed 498 rushing yards in their last two games.  New York has given up 156 rushing yards or more in four of their last five games.  Overall, the Dallas offense is averaging 26.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. 

New York’s offense has struggled recently, scoring just 27 total points over their last two games.  But the Giants have hurt themselves with turnovers; they had 8 in those two games.  Prior to that, the Giants averaged 25 points per game over their previous six games.  New York also has a history of offensive success against Dallas as they’ve scored 73 points on the Cowboys in their last three meetings.  While we expect offensive success tonight by the Giants’ offense, we also expect their defense to give up a lot of points.  Overall, the Giants’ defense is allowing 26.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  New York has allowed 400 yards or more in six games this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cowboys and Giants on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington comes into this game off an ugly 27-7 home loss to Tampa Bay.  The Redskins went into that game off their bye, so the loss was even more embarrassing.  The best thing for Washington is to get out on the road, and get away from all the distractions.  The Redskins are in a good spot to bounce back with a strong effort today.  Washington’s defense has allowed just 5.6 yards per play on the road this season.  The Redskins also have a strong run defense that is allowing just 101.8 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.  That defensive strength will be a huge factor in this game, especially since the 49ers’ best offense is their ability to run the football.

San Francisco is off a pedestrian 16-10 win over the Giants last week.  The 49ers should have won that game much more decisively since they had 5 interceptions in the game.  San Francisco’s offense generated very little against a bad New York defense; the 49ers had just 333 yards of total offense despite holding the ball for over 34 minutes.  Over their last three games, the 49ers have a +5 turnover margin yet they own wins of just 6 points and 3 points (in overtime).  San Francisco is not blowing teams out right now, and there’s no way they should be laying more than a touchdown into any team, especially considering how bad their offense has played this season.  The 49ers’ offense is averaging just 21.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus opponents allowing 23.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Since four of San Francisco’s six wins have come by 6 points or less, we’ll take the generous points with Washington in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

Arizona has the best record in the NFL at 9-1.  However, that record is phony as the Cardinals have not played remotely close to an elite level.  Arizona ranks just 15th overall in efficiency metrics with the #23 offense and #6 defense.  The Cardinals’ offense is even worse now that Drew Stanton is playing for the injured Carson Palmer.  In their 14-6 win over Detroit last week, the Cardinals were shutout in three quarters while only gaining a total of 352 yards of offense.  Stanton and the Cardinals must now take to the road and play in the toughest stadium in the NFL against a Seattle team that is coming off a loss.  Arizona’s defense has been worse on the road this season where they are allowing 21.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play compared to their seasonal numbers of 17.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  

Seattle comes into this game with only a 6-4 record, and because of that, the Seahawks appear to have regressed from last season.  However, Seattle ranks #7 in overall efficiency metrics despite the so-so record.  The Seahawks will come with a strong effort after losing in Kansas City last week.  Seattle has played above average football on both sides of the ball.  The Seahawks’ offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing 5.2 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has been even better at home this season where they are only giving up 4.9 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense has been atrocious on the road as they are only averaging 4.9 yards per play, and most of those games were with Carson Palmer.  Seattle is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

St. Louis was in a terrific scheduling and situational spot for their home game against Denver last week.  The Rams were catching Denver on their third consecutive road game while the Broncos were also off a 24-point win in their game before.  The Rams took advantage of a disinterested Denver team and won 22-7.  That was not a true result considering the significant difference between the Rams and Broncos.  But off that win, St. Louis is getting a lot of respect in the pointspread, especially since they are an underdog of less than a touchdown.  In their last three road games, the Rams were underdogs of 7, 7.5, and 10.5 points.  Overall, St. Louis has underperformed on both sides of the ball this season.  The Rams’ offense is averaging 18.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses allowing 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  St. Louis’ defense is allowing 25.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.            

San Diego is 6-4 on the season, including a 4-1 record at home.  All four of their home wins have come by 7 points or more.  San Diego is playing their second consecutive home game since their bye, so they’ve been basically home for the whole month of November.  To compare, St. Louis will be playing their fourth road game over the last five weeks.  That’s a huge scheduling edge in favor of the Chargers.  San Diego’s defense has been dominating at home this season.  The Chargers are only giving up 12.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play against offenses that average 21.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Rams’ offense has been awful on the road as they are only scoring 16.2 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with San Diego in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Green Bay looks like one of the best teams in football.  The Packers have steamrolled their last two opponents, Chicago and Philadelphia, by a combined score of 108-34.  However, both of those games came at home and now they must take to the road and lay more than a touchdown into a division opponent that is looking for some revenge after a 42-10 loss in Green Bay earlier this season.  The Packers were in a great spot for that win over Minnesota as they were catching the Vikings just four days after their 41-28 upset win over the Falcons.  Green Bay’s offense is terrific, but their defense has underperformed this season in allowing 22.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play to opponents who average 22.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.        

Minnesota is in a good bounce back spot for this game against Green Bay.  The Vikings come in off a 21-13 loss in Chicago, and a return home will bring out Minnesota’s best effort.  Overall, Minnesota’s defense has actually played better than average this season.  The Vikings are giving up 22 points per game on 5.7 yards per play against offenses that average 23.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Minnesota’s pass defense is allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.0 yards per pass attempt.  The Vikings have a good enough defense to contain Green Bay’s offense, especially since the Packers are just 2-3 SU on the road this season with one of those wins only coming by 3 points.  This is a bad spot for Green Bay, so we’ll take the generous points with Minnesota in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

Detroit is quietly having a good season.  The Lions come into this game with a 7-3 record with one of those losses coming at the 9-1 Cardinals.  That loss came last week in Arizona when Detroit was in a very difficult situational spot after three straight comeback wins.  The Lions still only allowed 14 points on 352 yards of total offense last week.  Detroit’s defense has been fantastic this season, and in fact, the Lions rank #1 in defensive efficiency metrics.  Overall, the Lions are giving up just 15.6 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Those strong defensive numbers have come against offenses that average 22.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

New England is on a roll as they’ve won six straight games while going 5-1 ATS.  However, this is a major flat spot in the Patriots’ schedule, and we do not expect one of their best performances.  New England went into last week’s primetime game in Indianapolis off their bye, and they blew out the Colts 42-20 as 3-point underdogs.  They beat Denver 43-21 in their game before the bye, and next week they are playing at Green Bay.  The Patriots’ offense will be taking a big step-up in class against Detroit’s defense, especially since the Lions allow 7.3 points per game less than the defenses New England has faced this season.  The Patriots’ defense is allowing 5.7 yards per play, so the Lions’ offense will have success moving the ball.  We’ll take the points with the strong defensive underdog in this game on Sunday.      

9* Play LIONS (+).

We lost a Best Bet on Miami Florida last week after they blew a 23-7 lead at home versus Florida State.  The Hurricanes were in a tremendous scheduling spot for that game as they came in off a bye.  That was Miami’s biggest game of the season, and this is a major letdown spot for the Hurricanes after losing 30-26 when Florida State scored the winning touchdown with three minutes left to play.  Miami must take to the road and lay points into a Virginia team they beat 45-26 last season.  The Hurricanes have little interest in this game, and these comments by head coach Al Golden do nothing but support that opinion.  “Our kids prepared like they were going to win all week and had a confidence all week, so that’s not going to be lost in this.  They’re all disappointed.  We’re crushed from it.”

Virginia is catching Miami at the perfect time.  The Cavaliers come into this game fresh off a bye week, and since this is their final home game of the season, we expect Virginia to play one of their best games of the year.  This game was originally scheduled for 12 pm (Noon) ET, but has been moved to 7 pm ET for national TV which means the temperature will be in the mid-30's at kickoff and definitely uncomfortable for the players from sunny and warm southern Florida.  Virginia's head coach Mike London is fighting to keep his job and the Cavaliers are looking for another win to inch closer to becoming bowl eligible, so they have plenty of motivation.  Virginia has a good defense that is only giving up 25.2 points per game on 5.0 yards per play against offenses that average 30.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Virginia’s defense has been even better at home where they only allow 20.3 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  This is a great spot for Virginia, and a lousy one for Miami, so we’ll take the home underdog in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (+).

Louisville has gone under the radar all season.  The Cardinals come into this game at 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.  Louisville has been strong despite instability at the quarterback position.  Starter Will Gardner has been on and off the field with injuries; he’s now out for the remainder of the year.  Freshman Reggie Bonnafon has started a pair of games, and he’s played in a handful of others so he has plenty of experience.  Louisville’s success this season has been because of their terrific defense that is only giving up 17.8 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.  The Cardinals have put up those strong defensive numbers against offenses that are averaging 25.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Louisville’s strong defense has allowed them to play close games as their three losses have come by a total of 19 points this season.           

Notre Dame comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Irish are just 1-3 SU and ATS over their last four games as their defense has completely fallen apart.  Since their 31-27 loss at Florida State, the Irish defense has given up 39, 55, and 43 points.  Notre Dame allowed a total of 1,413 yards of offense in those games to non-explosive teams like Northwestern and Navy.  Notre Dame’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 26.1 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Irish will take a big step-up in defensive class against Louisville in this game, especially since the Cardinals allow 8.3 points per game less than the opponents Notre Dame has faced.  Quarterback Everett Golson is playing with a sprained joint in his throwing shoulder, and that can’t be good when going against a strong defense.  Louisville comes into this game fresh off their bye while Notre Dame has played in six consecutive emotional games.  We’ll take the points in this game on Saturday afternoon.   

9* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Arizona comes into this game with an 8-2 record.  The Wildcats’ two losses have come against USC by 2 points (28-26) and UCLA by 10 points (17-7).  Arizona is an ugly 3-7 ATS this season, but they’ve only been underdogs in two games, winning 31-24 outright at Oregon and failing to cover in their UCLA loss.  Arizona will now be an underdog to a Utah team that has only been favored in four of their ten games this season.  Arizona has a strong offense that is averaging 35.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Wildcats have terrific balance on offense as they run for 186 yards and pass for 307 yards per game.  Arizona has also taken good care of the ball all season as they have 1 turnover or less in seven of their ten games, and 2 turnovers or less in nine of their ten games this season.    

Utah is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Arizona.  The Utes come in off seven consecutive emotional games, including last week’s overtime win at Stanford as 10-point underdogs.  Utah’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 5.1 yards per play against defenses that allow 5.5 yards per play.  Utah’s offense ranks #73 in efficiency metrics despite playing a collection of weak defenses that are giving up 29 points per game.  To compare, Arizona’s offense is ranked #37 in efficiency metrics.  Utah’s defense has allowed 390 yards or more in five of their ten games, and a team’s defense suffers the most when playing in a letdown spot.  Arizona handled Utah 35-24 last season, and since these teams are comparable to last year’s teams, there’s no reason the Wildcats can’t beat the Utes once again.  Utah’s four conference wins this season have all come by 6 points or less, including three wins by 3 points or less.  In a game that comes right down to the wire, we’ll take Arizona plus the points on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play ARIZONA (+).

Kansas City is playing some of the best football in the NFL right now.  The Chiefs have won and covered five consecutive games since their bye, and there’s no reason their streak won’t continue tonight in Oakland.  Kansas City has an exceptional rushing attack that is averaging 140 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  The Chiefs will run all over a terrible Raiders’ defense that is in terrible current form.  Oakland has allowed 335 rushing yards on 83 carries over their last three games.  Overall, Kansas City’s offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 5.4 yards per play.   

Oakland is still winless on the season; the Raiders come into this game with an 0-10 record.  The Raiders are simply a horrible team, and tonight’s match-up is a terrible one for them.  Oakland’s offense is awful as they are averaging just 15.2 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Those weak numbers have come against poor defenses that are giving up 5.4 yards per play.  Kansas City has a strong defense that is only allowing 17.1 points per game this season.  The Chiefs have not allowed a rushing touchdown all season, and overall they’ve given up just 16 touchdowns in ten games.  Kansas City is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

Kansas State and West Virginia both come into this game off losses.  The teams lost their recent games due to a lack of offense; Kansas State scored just 20 points while West Virginia scored just 16 points.  Both teams have had 12 days to get ready for this game, so most of their preparation was on the offensive side of the ball.  Kansas State has a strong rushing attack that averages 157 yards per game.  The Wildcats will be facing a poor West Virginia rush defense that allows 182 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  The Mountaineers have allowed 193, 224, and 227 rushing yards in their last three games.  In games in which they’ve allowed 150 rushing yards or more this season, the Mountaineers have given up 33, 37, 45, 34, 10, 31, and 33 points.  Overall, Kansas State’s offense is averaging 36.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.6 yards per play. 

West Virginia also has a very good offense this season.  The Mountaineers are averaging 34.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 29 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Kansas State’s defense has been terrible on the road this season; they’ve allowed 28 points or more in every away game.  Overall, the Wildcats are giving up 33 points per game on 6.1 points per play on the road this season.  Kansas State has allowed 1,086 total yards in their last two road games.  We expect a high-scoring game between Kansas State and West Virginia on Thursday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Tuesday, Nov. 18

NCAA Football

No official NCAAF play tonight, but I do have a light TV opinion below.

(1% opinion)  OHIO +2.5 (vs. Northern Illinois) - 8:00 pm ET (ESPNU) #104

Northern Illinois is having another solid season; the Huskies come into this game with an 8-2 record.  Despite the strong record, Northern Illinois has actually underperformed on both sides of the ball this season.  The Huskies have faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Huskies are averaging 31.5 points per game, but just 5.8 yards per play against those opponents.  Northern Illinois’ defense is allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.1 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.    

Ohio is just 5-5 on the season, but the Bobcats have actually played better than their record indicates, especially since their best players have missed games with injuries.  The Bobcats have quarterback Derrius Vick and running back A.J. Ouellette back on the field and healthy.  Those two guys make Ohio’s offense much better, and since Ohio comes in off a bye, we expect Vick and Ouellette to have big games tonight.  The Bobcats’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are giving up just 21.6 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 28.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  This is a huge game for Ohio as a win makes them bowl eligible.  We’ll take the points with the rested and motivated home underdog in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play OHIO (+).

Pittsburgh comes into this game off an ugly 20-13 loss at the New York Jets last Sunday.  That flat performance was expected after the Steelers played three straight games in which they scored 30 points or more.  Despite the bad situational spot, Pittsburgh still moved the ball quite well against a decent Jets’ defense.  The Steelers’ offense will move the ball efficiently in this game as Tennessee owns the second worst rush defense in efficiency metrics.  Pittsburgh’s ability to run the ball will only open things up downfield for QB Ben Roethlisberger who is having a terrific season.  Over his last four games, Roethlisberger has completed 72.8% of his passes while averaging a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt with 15 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.     

Tennessee is just 2-7 on the season, but the Titans have actually played better than their record indicates.  The Titans will start Zach Mettenberger at quarterback for the third time this season, and he should have his best game against a poor Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 23.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Mettenberger played well in the preseason when he completed 69.1% (47-68) of his passes on an impressive 9.7 yards per pass attempt, so he’s capable of putting up some good numbers.  Tennessee has a decent running game that is averaging 4.3 yards per rush this season.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 4.4 yards per rush, so the Titans should move the ball consistently in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Steelers and Titans on Monday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

New England and Indianapolis both come into this game off a bye, so the teams will be fresh and ready to go.  The Patriots’ offense has been in tremendous form during their past five games as they’ve scored 27 points or more in every game while averaging a whopping 40.2 points per game during that span.  Overall, New England is scoring 31.2 points per game this season.  Quarterback Tom Brady is having a fantastic season, and over his past five games, he has completed 67.5% (133-197) of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt with an incredible 18/1 TD/INT ratio.  New England’s defense is giving up 25.7 points per game on the road this season despite playing poor offensive opponents like the Dolphins, Vikings, and Bills.

Indianapolis is averaging 32.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Colts have put those numbers up against defenses that allow just 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Indianapolis has scored 24 points or more in eight of their nine games this season, including 33 points or more in five games.  The Colts’ defense has been below average this season as they are giving up 6.1 yards per play against offenses that average just 5.8 yppl overall.  Brady will be throwing against a Colts’ defense that is allowing a weak 7.1 yards per pass attempt this season.  Primetime NFL games are now 24-7 Over the total this season, and with two strong quarterbacks facing two suspect defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Patriots and Colts on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia lost quarterback Nick Foles to a broken collarbone two weeks ago against Houston.  And at that time, it appeared to be a bad thing for the Eagles.  However, in two games, Mark Sanchez actually looks like a better fit for Chip Kelly’s offense.  Sanchez is averaging a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt, and his ability to get out of the pocket much quicker than Foles makes Philadelphia’s offense more difficult to contain.  Sanchez will face a mediocre Green Bay defense that is allowing 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents that average 22.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Eagles’ offense averages 31 points per game on 5.8 yards per play, so they are significantly better than the average team Green Bay has faced this season.

Green Bay is coming off a 55-14 blowout win over the Bears last Sunday night.  The Packers went into that game off a bye and also off a loss, so they were primed for a big effort.  Off that 41-point win in which the Packers racked up 451 yards of total offense, there’s a good chance of regression in this game today.  The Packers’ biggest wins this season have come over some bad teams like the Bears (twice), Vikings, Jets, and Panthers.  Green Bay is just 1-3 SU in their other four games with the lone win coming by just 3 points (27-24) over the Dolphins.  The Eagles are 7-2 SU on the season, and they have a strong defense that ranks #5 against the run and #9 against the pass in efficiency metrics.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the Eagles plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play EAGLES (+).

Cincinnati is off an ugly 24-3 home loss versus Cleveland on Thursday night ten days ago.  The Bengals played a horrendous game as they had just 165 yards of total offense.  Off that humiliating performance, we expect Cincinnati to bounce back with a strong effort in this game.  Quarterback Andy Dalton was terrible as he completed just 30.3% (10-33) of his passes for an embarrassing 86 yards with 3 interceptions.  That was Dalton’s second awful performance of the season; he completed just 47.4% of his passes in a 27-0 loss to the Colts.  After that game, Dalton bounced back with a strong performance, completing 75% of his passes in a 27-24 win over the Ravens.  Cincinnati’s offense will be facing a poor New Orleans’ defense that is giving up 25 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that are only averaging 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

New Orleans comes in off a tough 27-24 home loss in overtime versus San Francisco.  The Saints had that game won, but they allowed the 49ers to convert on a long 4th down play that extended the game.  Favorites off an overtime loss are a poor play in the NFL, and the Saints fit that role today.  New Orleans must lay big points into the Bengals who are off an ugly performance with extra time to prepare; this is a scheduling situation that definitely favors Cincinnati.  The Saints certainly have a strong passing offense, but the Bengals have a strong pass defense that is ranked 8th in efficiency metrics.  Cincinnati is allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt versus offenses that are averaging 6.9 ypp this year.  The Bengals are in a good bounce back spot while the Saints are in bad situational spot, so we’ll take the points with Cincinnati in this game on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play BENGALS (+).

Seattle comes into this game with a 6-3 SU record, and they blew out the Giants 38-17 last Sunday.  The Seahawks are a strong team once again this year as they rank #4 in overall efficiency metrics despite having three losses on the season.  The Seahawks have some momentum after three straight wins, including back-to-back games in which they scored 30 and 38 points.  Seattle’s offense is averaging 6.1 yards per play versus defenses allowing just 5.8 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is permitting only 5.1 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has been terrific over their past three games while giving up just 16.7 points per game.

Kansas City has been good since their bye; the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS over their past four games.  But the Chiefs have played nothing in terms of competition with wins over the Chargers, Rams, Jets, and Bills.  Kansas City is taking a major step-up in class for this game, and it’s not the best of scheduling spots either.  After this non-conference game against Seattle, the Chiefs will play a pair of divisional games against the Raiders and Broncos.  The Chiefs need to run the ball in order to have offensive success, and when unable to, they struggle.  In fact, the Chiefs have been held to less than 110 rushing yards two times this season; they lost 26-10 to the Titans and they lost 22-17 to the 49ers.  Seattle has a strong rush defense that is holding opponents to just 79.8 yards per game on an impressive 3.2 yards per rush.  The Seahawks have held 7 of their 9 opponents to less than 110 yards on the ground this season.  We’ll take the points with Seattle in this early game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

LSU comes into this game off a heartbreaking 20-13 overtime loss to Alabama.  That was a huge game for the Tigers as they were playing themselves into the 4-team playoff discussion and a win would have vaulted them in the rankings.  LSU went into that game off their bye week, so we know they put everything they had into it.  Now they must take to the road and play an Arkansas team they’ve beaten the last three years.  The Razorbacks are not an opponent LSU respects, and since they are in a huge letdown spot, this is an extremely dangerous game for the Tigers.  Overall, LSU has strong seasonal numbers on defense.  But their main weakness this season has been run defense; they allow 154 yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  The Tigers have given up 268 rushing yards or more in three games this season, and they will face one of the best rushing attacks in college football in this game. 

Arkansas is significantly better this season than they were last year.  Head coach Bret Bielema was installing his system last year and the Razorbacks slogged thru an ugly 3-9 season.  Arkansas already has more wins this season as they come into this game with a 4-5 record; their five losses have come against Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi State who are a combined 38-8 on the season.  The Razorbacks’ offense is averaging 35.9 points per game and 6.2 yards per play versus opponents allowing 30.1 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Arkansas has a dynamite running game this is averaging 248.2 yards per game on a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Arkansas’ defense has played above average this season.  The Razorbacks are giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus opponents averaging 32.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Arkansas is coming into this game off their bye, and since they are catching LSU at the perfect time, we’ll back the Razorbacks on Saturday night.

9* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Florida State comes into this game on a 25-game winning streak, but we expect that to come to an end.  The Seminoles have been shaky this season, and they are basically escaping their games with wins.  They have not been nearly as dominant as they were last season, and they are just 2-6 ATS this season despite playing an extremely weak schedule.  Florida State’s defense has been leaky all season, and in fact, they’ve allowed 407 yards or more in five of their nine games this season.  Over their last four games, the Seminoles have allowed 98 points and 1,627 yards of total offense.  Two of those games came against terrible offenses as Syracuse ranks 97th and Virginia ranks 66th in offensive efficiency.  Florida State will be facing a Miami offense that ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, so the Seminoles’ problems are only going to be magnified in this game. 

Miami comes into this game with a 6-3 record, but the Hurricanes are significantly better than that record indicates.  Their three losses this season have come against Louisville, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech who are a combined 23-6 on the season.  Miami has a terrific offense that is averaging 33 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  The Hurricanes have put up those numbers against a strong collection of defenses that are only allowing 27 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Miami runs for 199.3 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush; Florida State has allowed 156 rushing yards or more in three of their last four games.  The Hurricanes also have a solid defense that is only giving up 21.9 points per game on 4.4 yards per play this season versus opponents averaging 31.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Miami’s defense has been even better at home where they give up just 18.2 points per game on 3.7 yards per play.  Miami is fresh off their bye, and since Florida State looks ripe for the picking, we’ll take the Hurricanes plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play MIAMI, FL (+).

We cashed a Best Bet winner going against Auburn last week, and we’ll come right back and play against the Tigers once again this week.  Auburn lost outright as 23.5-point home favorites to Texas A&M, and that loss basically eliminated them from the 4-team playoff picture.  And for a team that played in the title game last season, this is the ultimate flat spot for Auburn.  The Tigers are still 7-2 SU on the season, but they are just 4-5 ATS.  Prior to last week’s 41-38 loss, Auburn played in four consecutive highly emotional games.  The Tigers are drained, and last week’s game basically emptied their tank.  Over their last four games, the Auburn defense has given up a total of 145 points and 1,943 yards of total offense.  And those numbers won’t get any better in this game since Georgia has a potent offense that can take advantage of Auburn’s defense that is in poor current form.  

Georgia bounced back strong last week after their mind-boggling 38-20 loss to Florida the week before.  The Bulldogs waxed an inferior Kentucky team 63-31 while racking up 559 yards of total offense, including 305 yards on the ground.  Georgia’s rushing game is strong as they average 256.2 yards per game on a whopping 6.2 yards per rush.  Auburn has allowed 6.7 yards per rush over their last three games, so Georgia will run at will, especially since super running back Todd Gurley is slated to return.  Overall, Georgia has a potent offense that is averaging 43 points per game on 6.8 yards per play against defenses that allow 26.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Bulldogs also own the better defense as they give up just 4.9 yards per play compared to Auburn who allows 5.5 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with Georgia in this game on Saturday night.      

9* Play GEORGIA (-).

Utah is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Stanford.  The Utes come off six consecutive emotional games, and it’s hard to imagine them having much left for this game.  Utah’s big game was at home last week against Oregon, and the game turned on one play.  Utah was about to take a 14-0 lead when a wide receive made a huge mental blunder and dropped the ball before getting into the end zone.  That play turned into a 100-yard fumble return for Oregon.  The Utes then trailed by 17 points before rallying back in the fourth quarter to cut Oregon’s lead to just 3 points before the Ducks scored the last 21 points of the game.  That loss will have Utah playing with a hangover in this game.  The Utes’ offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 5.2 yards per play against defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play.  Utah doesn’t figure to generate much offense in this game, especially since they are playing one of the best defenses in college football. 

Stanford also comes into this game off a loss to Oregon, but that game was on the road and it came two weeks ago.  The Cardinal come into this game off their bye, so they will be the much fresher team, especially with Utah off six straight close games.  Stanford is also playing with revenge after losing 27-21 in Utah last season as 7.5-point road favorites.  Stanford has shown a strong ability to bounce back off a loss this season.  In fact, the Cardinal are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in that role, winning by an average of 25.3 points per game.  Stanford has a terrific defense that is only allowing 16.1 points per game on 4.1 yards per play.  Those strong numbers have come against offenses that averaging 31 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Stanford is in a tremendous spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinal in this game on Saturday. 

9* Play STANFORD (-).

Virginia Tech opened the season at 4-2, but things have gone sour lately as they’ve lost three straight games.  The Hokies comes into this game off their bye, and the week off came at the perfect time.  This is also a big revenge game for Virginia Tech after the Hokies lost 13-10 at home to Duke as 12-point favorites last season.  That game was a low-scoring defensive struggle, and we expect this game to play out the same way.  Virginia Tech has a terrific defense that is only giving up 22.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Hokies have put up those strong defensive numbers against offenses that are averaging 32.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Virginia Tech’s strong defense has allowed them to play close games as four of their five losses this season have come by 7 points or less, including three losses by 5 points or less.            

Duke comes into this game with an impressive 8-1 record on the season.  However, the Blue Devils have played an extremely weak schedule, and they’ve simply been winning with smoke and mirrors.  Duke’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 30.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Despite the poor opposition, Duke is only averaging 5.6 yards per play.  The Blue Devils are taking a big step-up in defensive class against Virginia Tech in this game, especially since the Hokies allow 7.5 points per game less than the opponents they’ve faced.  Duke has been out-gained in four of their last five games despite holding a defensive advantage against those opponents.  Virginia Tech holds the edge in this game, and since they are fresh off their bye and playing with revenge, we’ll take the points in this early game on Saturday afternoon.   

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

California has played in a slew of high-scoring games this season, and it looks like another shootout against USC tonight.  The Golden Bears have a solid offense that is averaging 41.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.  They’ve put those numbers up against defenses that are allowing just 32.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  However, California has a terrible defense that is giving up 39.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging only 30 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

USC also has a very good offense this season, and they will score at will on that weak California defense.  The Trojans are averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up just 28.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  USC has strong seasonal defensive numbers, but the Trojans have faced a slew of weak offenses that possess run-based attacks.  Despite that, USC has still given up 24 points or more in five games this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between California and USC on Thursday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Buffalo and Miami both come into tonight’s game off losses, but of the two, the Dolphins are in the better spot to bounce back with a strong effort.  The Bills were in a prime scheduling and situational spot for their home game against Kansas City last week.  Buffalo was fresh off their bye and they were catching the Chiefs in a terrible spot.  The Bills played a terrible game, and they were still in position to win, but they blew a 13-3 lead with just over 18 minutes left to play in the game.  Buffalo had 3 turnovers and QB Kyle Orton played awful, driving for just one touchdown.  Orton will face one of the best defenses in the NFL tonight, and there’s no reason to expect him to play any better.  Over the last month, Miami’s defense has limited opposing quarterbacks to 58% completions (76-131) on just 6.3 yards per pass attempt.  The Dolphins have 13 sacks and 7 interceptions while allowing just 4 touchdown passes over that span.   

Miami was in a tough spot for their game last week in Detroit.  The Lions were fresh off their bye while the Dolphins were off their 37-0 win over the Chargers.  Despite that, Miami led 16-13 before Detroit scored the game-winning touchdown with just 29 seconds left to play.  The Dolphins were in a flat spot, and their on-field production showed that as they gained just 222 yards of total offense, including an ugly 50 yards on the ground.  Those totals were both season lows, but we can excuse that since Detroit owns the #1 defense in the NFL.  Miami averages 128 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush, so we expect a strong performance on the ground tonight.  Buffalo’s rush defense has been leaking as they’ve given up 127, 175, and 158 yards on the ground over their last three games; they held their previous six opponents to 86 yards or less.  Miami is also playing with revenge after losing 29-10 in Buffalo back in Week 2.  We’ll lay the points with the Dolphins in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play DOLPHINS (-).

Carolina has a big scheduling advantage for this Monday night game in Philadelphia.  The Panthers are on a mini bye of sorts as they last played on Thursday, October 30th.  Carolina has had 10 days to prepare for this game while the Eagles just played last Sunday.  The Panthers also come into this game off an ugly 28-10 home loss to the Saints, so they will be ready and bring a much better effort for this spotlight game.  Carolina has played a brutal schedule this season against strong passing offenses; the Panthers have faced teams ranked 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 10th.  But they get a class relief in this game against an average Philadelphia passing attack that ranks just 14th in efficiency metrics and is now playing with a backup quarterback.  The Panthers’ defense will have a better showing tonight because they are simply facing a less explosive offense.

Philadelphia lost quarterback Nick Foles to a broken collarbone in their game last week against Houston.  That didn’t matter as backup quarterback Mark Sanchez led the Eagles to a 31-21 win.  Sanchez came off the bench and completed 68.2% (15-22) of his passes for 202 yards and 2 touchdown passes.  However, the Panthers now have time to prepare for Sanchez, so the backup QB comes into this game in a different situation, and it’s likely he will regress off that performance.  Sanchez has known all week that he will start this game, and this simply causes a player and team to play much differently than when thrown into the middle of a game.  The Eagles’ offense was into their mid-season flow with Foles, and that has been interrupted.  Philadelphia’s defense also lost their leader, linebacker DeMeco Ryans, to a season-ending injury.  His absence makes the Eagles vulnerable in the middle of the field, and since Carolina has a mobile quarterback in Cam Newton, the Panthers own a nice hidden match-up edge tonight.  This game should be close throughout, so we’ll take Carolina plus the points on Monday night.   

10* Play PANTHERS (+).

Chicago comes into this game in Green Bay off back-to-back blowout losses.  However, the Bears have had an extra week to prepare for this game, and since they are also playing with revenge from a 38-17 home loss to Packers back in Week 4, we expect Chicago to bring their best effort.  That 21-point loss was a misleading final score as the Bears actually out-gained the Packers 496-358, including a whopping 235-56 yardage edge on the ground.  Green Bay has a mediocre defense that is allowing 23.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play to opponents that average 22.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Bears’ offense averages 5.8 yards per play, so they are better than the average team Green Bay has faced this season.

Green Bay is also coming off a loss in their last game, and they are also coming off their bye week.  However, the situation is different for the Packers because they already beat Chicago and they did not figure to win their last game in New Orleans.  The Packers’ week off didn’t come at the best of times while Chicago desperately needed some time off.  Green Bay’s biggest wins this season have come over some bad teams like the Vikings and Panthers.  The Packers only beat the Jets by 7 points and the Dolphins by 3 points, so they really haven’t been a dominant team.  This is a divisional game, and aside from the 21-point margin in the first meeting, the last three games between the Bears and Packers were decided by 8 points or less.  We expect a closer game this time, so we’ll take the Bears plus the points on Sunday night.

9* Play BEARS (+).

The New York Giants were in a terrific scheduling and situational spot for their Monday night home game against the Colts.  The Giants went into that game off their bye, and since they lost back-to-back division games prior to their week off, New York figured to bring their best effort.  The Giants did exactly the opposite and played a terrible game and lost 40-24 in a game that was worse than the 16-point defeat looks.  Now the Giants must take to the road and travel cross country and play on a short week in Seattle who owns the best home field advantage in the NFL.  New York had no time to fix their problems, and since they are besieged with injuries, this game against the Seahawks looks hopeless for the Giants.  Overall, New York has played below average football on both sides of the ball.  The Giants’ offense is only averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.8 yards per play.  The Giants’ defense is allowing 6.4 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.9 yards per play.            

Seattle comes into this game with only a 5-3 record, and because of that, the Seahawks appear to have regressed from last season.  However, Seattle ranks #4 in overall efficiency metrics despite the so-so record.  The Seahawks have some momentum after back-to-back wins, including last week’s 30-point performance.  Seattle has played above average football on both sides of the ball.  The Seahawks’ offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing 5.1 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.8 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has been even better at home this season where they are only giving up 4.8 yards per play.  New York’s offense has been atrocious on the road as they are only scoring 20 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions, so we’ll lay the points with Seattle in this late game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

This is perhaps the biggest sharp/square divide game this year as the general public and recreational players are heavy on the Steelers, while the professional bettors and sharp money is on the Jets.  Pittsburgh comes into this game off back-to-back huge performances.  The Steelers beat the Colts and Ravens by a combined score of 94-57.  The Steelers racked up 1,015 yards of total offense with an incredible 843 of those yards coming thru the air.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 75.6% (65-86) of his passes with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  The Steelers cannot play any better than that, and since they are now on the road and laying points, we expect a sharp regression.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been terrible this season as they are giving up 24.3 points per game on an ugly 6.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging only 23.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Steelers played in a very physical and emotional-draining game last Sunday night versus their division rival Baltimore, and this is simply a major letdown spot today for Pittsburgh.

New York has not won a game since their season opener when they beat Oakland 19-14.  The Jets are just 1-8 on the season, but they get a tremendous setup for this game.  The Jets will start Mike Vick at quarterback once again.  Vick moved the Jets’ offense up and down the field in Kansas City last week while completing 21 of his 28 passes for 196 yards and a touchdown.  Despite their terrible record, the Jets’ defense has actually played respectable football as they are only giving up 5.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.6 yards per play.  The Jets possess one of the best run defenses in the NFL.  New York is only allowing 88.4 rushing yards per game on just 3.5 yards per rush.  Pittsburgh is simply in a terrible spot, and since we do not expect the Steelers to match their performances of the the last two weeks, we’ll take the home underdog in this early Sunday afternoon game.

10* Play JETS (+).

Kansas City has been good since their bye; the Chiefs are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS over their last three games.  Kansas City won an important divisional game in San Diego, and then won two home games by a combined score of 58-17.  Now the Chiefs must take to the road and play a non-division opponent.  This is not a good scheduling and situational spot for Kansas City, especially since they host Seattle next week followed by a pair of divisional games.  The Chiefs need to run the ball in order to have offensive success, and when unable to, they struggle.  In fact, the Chiefs have been held to less than 110 rushing yards two times this season; they lost 26-10 to the Titans and they lost 22-17 to the 49ers.  Buffalo has a strong rush defense that is holding opponents to just 92.5 yards per game on an impressive 3.5 yards per rush.   

Buffalo comes into this game off their bye, so they will be the much fresher team.  The Bills are 5-3 on the season, and winning home teams in this price range have been a long-term profitable angle in the NFL.  Buffalo has already faced two of the best defenses in the league, and the Bills won both of those games.  They won 17-14 in Detroit, and they beat Miami 29-10 at home.  Buffalo will face a mediocre Kansas City defense that has played worse on the road this season.  The Chiefs are giving up 3 points more per game overall (20.2-17.2) while allowing opponents to average 5.7 yards per play.  The Kansas City offense has also underperformed on the road, averaging just 5.3 yards per play versus opponents giving up 5.7 yards per play.  This is a bigger game for the Bills, and since they are in the better situational and scheduling spot, we’ll take Buffalo in this game on Sunday.      

9* Play BILLS.

Tennessee is just 2-6 on the season, but the Titans have actually played better than their record indicates.  Tennessee lost four games to the Cowboys, Bengals, Colts, and Browns who own a combined 23-12-1 record this season.  The Titans come into this game off their bye, so they are a fresh team playing with motivation.  Tennessee will start Zach Mettenberger at quarterback for the second time this season, and with the extra time to prepare, he will be more effective in this game.  Mettenberger played well in the preseason when he completed 69.1% (47-68) of his passes on an impressive 9.7 yards per pass attempt.  Tennessee has a decent running game that is averaging 4.4 yards per rush this season, so Mettenberger won’t be forced to win this game solely thru the air.  Tennessee’s defense is better than their raw numbers indicate; the Titans have 8 interceptions and 23 sacks on the season, and they’ll be facing a fatigued and shorthanded Ravens team.

Baltimore comes in off a brutal game in Pittsburgh last Sunday night.  That was a physical game from start to finish, and it took something out of Baltimore.  The Ravens are off back-to-back divisional road games, and since they have their bye on deck, this is an easy game for Baltimore to go thru the motions.  The Ravens’ offense is averaging 26.7 points per game this season, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing defenses that are allowing 24.7 points per game as a group.  Despite playing weak defenses, Baltimore is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Tennessee’s defense is giving up 5.6 yards per play versus offenses averaging 5.8 yards per play.  Baltimore is simply in a terrible spot, so we’ll take the generous points with Tennessee in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play TITANS (+).

This is a rematch from last season’s Big 10 title game that Michigan State won 34-24 as 5.5-point underdogs.  Ohio State has not forgotten that defeat, and this is a game they’ve had circled.  The Buckeyes have been on a tear since losing to Virginia Tech back in Week 2.  Ohio State is a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since that loss.  Even with the loss to the Hokies, Ohio State has out-gained all eight of their opponents this season.  Overall, the Buckeyes are averaging 45.6 points per game and 6.6 yards per play versus opponents allowing 28 points per game and 5.7 yards per play.  Ohio State has a dynamite running game this is averaging 259.2 yards per game on a whopping 5.3 yards per rush.  The Buckeyes also have a strong defense that is only allowing 19.9 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.   

Michigan State is also 7-1 on the season, but according to my strength of schedule ratings, the Spartans have played a very weak schedule.  The Spartans’ offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 30.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play as a group this season.  Michigan State is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Ohio State in this game.  In fact, the Spartans will face a Buckeyes’ defense that is allowing 10.9 points per game and 1.4 yards per play less per game than the opponents Michigan State has faced this season.  The Spartans have only faced two strong opponents this season; they lost 46-27 at Oregon and they beat Nebraska 27-22 at home.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Ohio State on Saturday night.  

10* Play OHIO STATE (+).

West Virginia is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Texas.  The Mountaineers had the TCU game won last week until they gave up the game-winning field goal as time expired.  West Virginia will play this game with a hangover, especially since they are now on the road against an unranked team.  West Virginia has played in seven consecutive highly emotional games, so they are due to play a clunker.  The Mountaineers’ offense has been productive this season, but they’ve also played a mediocre slate of opposing defenses that are allowing 29.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play as a group.  West Virginia’s offense is taking a big step-up in class against the Texas defense; the Longhorns are allowing 23.1 points per game on 4.6 yards per play to opponents averaging 32.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Texas also has a terrific pass defense that permits just 5.6 yards per pass attempt against opponents averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt.

Texas returns home off back-to-back road games, and the Longhorns will be playing just their third home game since September 6th.  That quirky scheduling situation will ensure Texas brings their best effort in front of their home fans, especially since they are hosting a ranked opponent.  Texas is off a 34-13 win at Texas Tech last week, so they also come into this game with good momentum.  The Longhorns’ offense also played their best game of the season as they put up 241 yards on the ground and 228 yards thru the air.  West Virginia’s rush defense is poor, and they’ve allowed 194 yards or more on the ground in five games this season, including three of their last four games.  Texas has proven they can run the ball effectively, and the Longhorns are 3-1 SU when they run for 150 yards or more in a game this season.  Texas is a live underdog, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Texas A&M was slated to regress this season, but after their season-opening 52-28 win over South Carolina was followed by four more wins, the Aggies became overvalued.  Since their 5-0 start, Texas A&M has gone just 1-3 over their last four games.  And because of that, they’ve now become undervalued.  The Aggies own just one ugly loss this season, and that’s their 59-0 shutout at Alabama; Texas A&M was only a 14-point underdog in that game.  Their other two losses came by 17 and 15 points, and both of those results would be good enough to cover the inflated spread in this game.  Texas A&M has an explosive offense that is averaging 36.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  That high-scoring offense gives the Aggies plenty of backdoor potential should they need it.     

Auburn is 7-1 SU on the season, but the Tigers are just 4-4 ATS.  Auburn has failed to cover as double digit favorites twice this season, and this game against Texas A&M is not an ideal spot for the Tigers to be laying over three touchdowns.  Auburn has played in four consecutive highly emotional games, and with a big game against Georgia on deck, this is a huge flat spot for the Tigers.  Last week, Auburn played in a high-scoring, back and forth game at Mississippi that the Tigers won 35-31 after the Rebels fumbled the game winning touchdown going into the end zone.  Over their last three games, the Auburn defense has given up a total of 104 points and 1,490 yards of total offense.  And as mentioned above, Texas A&M has a potent offense that can take advantage of Auburn’s defense that is in poor current form.  This is simply a terrible spot for Auburn, so we’ll take the big points with Texas A&M in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play TEXAS A&M (+).

Baylor is having another solid season as the Bears come into this game with a 7-1 record.  However, Baylor has played an extremely weak schedule, and in fact, their strength of schedule is the worst of any team ranked in the Top 25 of my power ratings.  Baylor’s toughest opponent to date was TCU, and the Bears trailed by 21 points on their home field with 11 minutes left to play in that game.  Granted, they came back and won the game 61-58, but it was a fluky result considering Baylor lost 41-28 at West Virginia the following week.  Baylor has good seasonal stats on both sides of the ball, but remember, they’ve played an easy slate of opponents.  Baylor’s defense was exposed when TCU and West Virginia combined to score 99 points on 941 yards of offense.  The Bears are taking a major step-up in class for this game in Oklahoma, and Baylor will be facing their toughest opponent of the season.      

Oklahoma looked like the best team in the country early on this season.  The Sooners won their first four games by double digit margins before losing two of their next three games.  Oklahoma lost at TCU and lost at home to Kansas State in a game they out-yarded the Wildcats 533-385.  The Sooners really have no shame in those losses, and in fact, they should have won both games.  Oklahoma comes in off a 59-14 blowout win over Iowa State, so they come into this game with a lot of momentum.  The Sooners have had this Baylor game circled in red after getting embarrassed 41-12 by the Bears last season.  Oklahoma has played a tough schedule this season, but the Sooners still have impressive numbers on both sides of the ball.  The Sooners’ offense is averaging 41.5 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus opponents allowing 27.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Oklahoma’s defense is only allowing 19 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home this season.  Oklahoma is playing with legitimate revenge, and since they are the better team on both sides of the ball, we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday.

9* Play OKLAHOMA (-).

Cleveland has been a surprise team in the NFL this season.  The Browns come into this game with a 5-3 SU record and 4-2-2 ATS record.  However, four of their wins have come at home and they are just 1-2 on the road.  Their lone road win in Tennessee was a miraculous one as they trailed 28-3 before coming back and winning 29-28.  They also trailed in Pittsburgh 27-3 before rallying to make it a close 30-27 final.  The Browns got blown out 24-6 in Jacksonville.  So in their three road games, the Browns were losing by 18 points or more at one point.  Cleveland’s last two wins have come against Oakland and Tampa Bay who are a combined 1-15 SU on the season.  The Browns are taking a major step-up in class for this game in Cincinnati, especially since the Bengals have righted their ship with back-to-back wins.  Cleveland’s running game has struggled since starting center Alex Mack broke his leg.  Over the past three weeks, the Browns have a total of 158 rushing yards.  The Browns have little firepower in the passing game, especially with Jordan Cameron missing games due to a concussion.  Cleveland will have a hard time moving the ball consistently in this game tonight.

Cincinnati is starting to play better football now that quarterback Andy Dalton is getting his receivers back on the field.  The Bengals have won back-to-back home games after a 3-game losing streak.  Cincinnati’s offense has been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 30.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Bengals will face a poor Cleveland defense that is allowing 27.3 points per game on 6.5 yards per play in their three road games this season.  The Browns have given up 24 points or more in every road game while allowing an average of 412 yards per game.  Cincinnati’s defense is significantly better, especially at home where the Bengals are only allowing 20.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Cincinnati has their confidence back with their recent play, so we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Thursday night.    

10* Play BENGALS (-).

Indianapolis opened the season with back-to-back losses before running off five straight wins and pointspread covers.  The Colts’ streak came to an end last week when they were crushed 51-34 in Pittsburgh.  We expect Indianapolis to falter once again as they are simply not as good as they appeared during their 5-game winning streak.  The Colts’ defense has been atrocious on the road this season; they’ve allowed 28 points or more in three of their four games.  Overall, the Colts are allowing 31.7 points per game on an ugly 6.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that are only averaging 24.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.        

New York is in a tremendous scheduling spot for this game.  The Giants come into this game fresh off their bye week, and since they went into that extra week off back-to-back losses, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.  The Giants have played much better at home than on the road this season; they are 2-1 at home with their lone loss coming against Arizona after blowing a lead.  The Giants’ offense is averaging 24.7 points per game at home this season, and they will have success against the poor Indianapolis defense.  Quarterback Eli Manning is completing a career-high 69.4% of his passes this season with a strong 14/5 TD/INT ratio.  Manning will be throwing against a Colts’ defense that is allowing a terrible 8.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season.  The Giants are primed for a big performance, so we’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Monday night.      

10* Play GIANTS (+).

Indianapolis has played four road games this season, and all four of those games have gone Over the total.  Those games had 55, 61, 61, and 85 points scored, all of which would have easily gone Over tonight’s posted total.  The Colts are averaging 31.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  They’ve scored 24 points or more in seven of their eight games, including 33 points or more in three of their four road games.  The Colts’ defense has been atrocious on the road this season; they’ve allowed 28 points or more in three of their four games.  Overall, the Colts are allowing 31.7 points per game on an ugly 6.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that are only averaging 24.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.        

New York is in a good scheduling spot to score a lot of points.  Home underdogs coming off a bye week have historically played in high-scoring games.  It makes sense because since they are getting points at home, the road team is perceived to be better and the home team uses the extra prep time to focus on their offense knowing they have to score points in order to win the upcoming game.  The Giants’ offense is averaging 24.7 points per game at home this season, and they will have success against the poor Indianapolis defense.  Quarterback Eli Manning is completing a career-high 69.4% of his passes this season with a strong 14/5 TD/INT ratio.  Manning will be throwing against a Colts’ defense that is allowing a terrible 8.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season. We expect a high-scoring game between the Colts and Giants on Monday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

This will be the second meeting of the season between Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-6 in the first meeting, and there’s no reason they won’t beat them again in this game on Sunday night.  That first game could have been more of a blowout than it was as Baltimore only scored two touchdowns on six trips inside the red zone; they settled for four field goals of 30 yards or less.  Baltimore comes into this game off a 27-24 loss in Cincinnati, so they will be ready to bounce back strong.  The Ravens also came off a loss to the Bengals prior to their first game with the Steelers, so they are in a familiar spot.  Baltimore’s defense has been terrific this season as they are only allowing 16.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 23.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.            

Pittsburgh comes in off a huge performance against the Colts last week.  The Steelers won 51-34 after racking up 639 yards of total offense with an incredible 522 of those yards coming thru the air.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 81.6% (40-49) of his passes with 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  The Steelers cannot play any better than that, and since they are taking a huge step-up in defensive class, we expect a sharp regression.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been terrible this season as they are giving up 24.5 points per game on an ugly 6.2 yards per play versus opponents averaging 22.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Baltimore’s offense is averaging 27.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play, and we’ve already seen them go up and down the field on the Steelers’ defense this season.  Baltimore is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Ravens in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play RAVENS (-).

Denver is the best team in football by a wide margin.  The Broncos have the #1 rated offense and the #2 defense in efficiency ratings, and a team hasn’t been ranked that high on both sides of the ball since 2007 when the Patriots went a perfect 16-0 in the regular season.  Denver is the superior team in this matchup as New England only ranks #11 on offense and #22 on defense in efficiency.  The two teams played twice last season with both teams winning on their home field.  Denver led 24-0 at the half in New England before losing 34-31 in overtime, and that game is one the Broncos haven’t forgotten about.  Overall this season, the Broncos are averaging 32 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus opponents allowing 21.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New England’s defense has been below average as they are giving up 22.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 21 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.        

New England comes into this game off a perfect performance.  The Patriots beat the Bears 51-23 after racking up 487 yards of total offense.  Quarterback Tom Brady was flawless as he completed 85.7% (30-35) of his passes for 354 yards with 5 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.  That big win was preceded by two division wins and a 43-17 thumping of the Bengals.  The Patriots have won four consecutive high-scoring games, but they are now taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Denver in this game.  Despite their gaudy offensive numbers, the Patriots are only averaging 5.6 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.5 yards per play this season.  Denver’s defense is holding their opponents to 20.3 points per game on just 5.0 yards per play.  The Patriots have looked good against a slate of bad opponents, but reality will set in versus Denver in this game.  We’ll lay the points with the Broncos as they are simply the superior team on both sides of the ball.      

10* Play BRONCOS (-).

New York has not won a game since their season opener when they beat Oakland 19-14.  The Jets are just 1-7 on the season, but this is a good situational spot for them to play a competitive football game.  The Jets will start Mike Vick at quarterback, and the change will provide a spark to a team in desperate need of something to get them going.  Getting out of New York is also beneficial to this team, and a road game is definitely what they need right now.  Despite their terrible record, the Jets’ defense has actually played good football as they are only giving up 5.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.7 yards per play.  The Jets possess one of the best run defenses in the NFL.  New York is only allowing 85.4 rushing yards per game on just 3.3 yards per rush.  New York’s ability to play stout run defense will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

Kansas City is not in the best of scheduling spots for this game against the Jets.  The Chiefs went into their bye off a loss in San Francisco.  After their week off, the Chiefs won a divisional game in San Diego as 3-point underdogs.  Kansas City followed that win with a 34-7 blowout of the Rams last week.  Now the Chiefs have to lay significant points into a desperate non-divisional opponent that holds a key match-up edge against them.  Kansas City needs to run the ball in order to have offensive success, and when unable to, they struggle.  In fact, the Chiefs have been held to less than 110 rushing yards two times this season; they lost 26-10 to the Titans and they lost 22-17 to the 49ers.  Overall, the Kansas City offense has played average football as they are averaging 5.5 yards per play versus opponents giving up 5.5 yards per play.  This is a game that is much more important to the Jets, and since they hold a situational, scheduling, and match-up edge, we’ll takes the points in this game on Sunday.      

9* Play JETS (+).

Tennessee has played a brutal schedule this season.  The Vols have lost at Oklahoma, at Georgia, and at Mississippi while also losing at home to Florida and Alabama.  Not many teams would survive that gauntlet, so we’re willing to forgive Tennessee for their poor 3-5 record.  The Vols scored just 23 total points in their last two games, but Mississippi has the #2 defense and Alabama has the #6 defense when rated by efficiency.  Tennessee is taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against South Carolina as the Gamecocks rank #119 in defensive efficiency this season.  The Vols’ offense will breakout in this game, just like all of South Carolina’s opponents have done this season.  The Gamecocks are giving up 32.7 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Despite playing a tough slate of defensive opponents, Tennessee’s offense is averaging 23.9 points per game versus teams giving up just 21.6 points per game.  

South Carolina comes into this game in a terrible situational spot.  The Gamecocks put everything they had into last week’s game against Auburn, but they came up just short in a 42-35 loss.  South Carolina will play this game with a hangover, and since they already own a terrible defense, the letdown will be even greater.  The Gamecocks have underperformed all season, especially in conference play where they own a poor 2-4 SU and ATS record.  South Carolina is a woeful 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season, and there’s no reason to expect them to cover in this game.  Tennessee has a solid defense that is giving up just 22.9 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus opponents averaging 31.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  In a game that comes right down to the wire, we’ll take the points with the road underdog in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play TENNESSEE (+).

Arkansas is significantly better this season than they were last year.  Head coach Bret Bielema was installing his system last year and the Razorbacks slogged thru an ugly 3-9 season.  Arkansas already has more wins this season as they come into this game with a 4-4 record; their four losses have come against Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Georgia who are a combined 24-6 on the season.  Granted, they are now playing the #1 team in the country who owns a 7-0 record, but Mississippi State is lower in my power ratings than three of the teams mentioned above.  So Arkansas has already played better teams than Mississippi State despite what the national rankings say.  The Razorbacks’ offense is averaging 39.1 points per game and 6.4 yards per play versus opponents allowing 30.7 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Arkansas has a dynamite running game this is averaging 258.9 yards per game on a whopping 5.9 yards per rush.     

Mississippi State won 45-31 in Kentucky last week, but the Bulldogs went into that game off their bye week.  Kentucky rolled up 502 of yards of offense on Mississippi State in that game despite rushing for only 103 total yards.  The Bulldogs’ defense will be pounded on the ground in this game by Arkansas, and that alone will keep the Razorbacks in this game from start to finish.  Arkansas’ defense has played above average this season.  The Razorbacks are giving up 25.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 32.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Mississippi State is only 2-2 ATS as a double digit favorite this season, including 0-1 ATS in SEC play.  The Bulldogs are virtually maxed out in the pointspread, and there’s a tax attached to them because of their #1 ranking.  We’ll take the generous points with Arkansas in this game on Saturday night.   

9* Play ARKANSAS (+).

TCU is 6-1 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS this season, and with a short line, they look like a tough team to go against.  But TCU is simply in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game.  The Horned Frogs lost their first game of the season three weeks at Baylor after blowing a 21-point lead with 11 minutes left to play in the game.  The Horned Frogs were off an emotional, high-scoring home underdog win over Oklahoma the week before.  Off those games, TCU then steamrolled Oklahoma State 42-9 and last week they scored an eye-popping 82 points on 785 yards of total offense.  TCU has no chance in matching that effort, especially since they have to play this game on the road in West Virginia.  The Horned Frogs have faced a slew of poor defensive teams that give up 33.5 points per game this season.  TCU is now facing a strong West Virginia defense that is only giving up 21.5 points per game on 4.2 yards per play at home this season.  

West Virginia is much improved this season.  The Mountaineers went just 4-8 last season, but they come into this game at 6-2 SU with their two losses coming to Alabama and Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers were impressive in both defeats as they only lost 33-23 to Alabama and 45-33 to Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers have a strong offense with Clint Trickett at quarterback; they average 36.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  TCU has strong seasonal defense numbers, but they’ve played just two road games all year and one good opponent on the road; they gave up 61 points and 782 yards of offense to Baylor.  West Virginia has a strong pass defense, and that’s a key ingredient to have when facing TCU.  The Mountaineers are only allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt to opponents averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt.  West Virginia is a live underdog, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

North Carolina beat us last week when they somehow won 28-27 in Virginia.  The Tar Heels were dominated in the stats, and they only got into the red zone one time all game.  Their backup quarterback threw the winning touchdown pass after Virginia threw an interception in North Carolina territory when leading 27-21.  The Tar Heels got a phony win, and that game came after back-to-back high-scoring games that were decided on the game’s final plays.  So in three consecutive weeks, North Carolina has been involved in games that came down to the final few seconds.  North Carolina must now play back-to-back road games with this also being their third road game in four weeks and their fifth road game in seven weeks.  North Carolina has to be gassed, and their fatigue will be even more profound in the heat and humidity of South Florida, especially since Miami will be the fresher team after playing last Thursday night. 

Miami comes into this game with a 5-3 record, but the Hurricanes are significantly better than that record indicates.  Their three losses this season have come against Louisville, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech who are a combined 19-5 on the season.  Miami has a terrific offense that is averaging 31.2 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  The Hurricanes have put up those numbers against a strong collection of defenses that are only allowing 24.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  North Carolina has an atrocious defense that is allowing 41.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Hurricanes also have a solid defense that is only giving up 22.1 points per game on 4.5 yards per play this season versus opponents averaging 30.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Miami’s defense has been even better at home where they give up just 17.7 points per game on 3.7 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Northwestern and Iowa both come into this game off their bye week, so we can expect a game played true to form, especially since both teams are coming off losses in their last game.  Both teams are built the same way with conservative coaches that prefer to play ball control and win with their defense.  In all likelihood, this is going to be a low-scoring game making the points extremely valuable.  Northwestern is just 3-4 on the season, but they’ve played a much tougher schedule than it appears, and in fact, they’ve played a tougher schedule than Iowa.  The Wildcats’ defense has been fantastic this season as they are only allowing 20.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 29.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Iowa’s offense has unperformed all season; they only average 5.1 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.5 yards per play. 

Iowa comes into this game with an impressive 5-2 record, but they beat nothing to get that record.  The Hawkeyes own wins over Northern Iowa, Ball State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, and Indiana.  Despite the weak competition, Iowa’s average win has only come by 9.2 points per game with three of their wins coming by 8 points or less.  Iowa’s weak offense, as noted above, is why they can’t win by margin.  The Hawkeyes have faced a slew of weak defenses that are allowing 29.9 points per game.  Iowa is taking a big step-up in defensive class against Northwestern in this game, so they will struggle to move the ball with any type of consistency.  In what projects to be a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Northwestern in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

New Orleans comes into this game off their big 44-23 home win over Green Bay on Sunday night.  The Saints must wheel back and take to the road on a short week.  Bad situational spots hinder defenses the most, and since the Saints’ defense is bad to begin with, we expect them to give up a lot of points in this game.  New Orleans is allowing 26.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus opponents only averaging 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints’ defense has been even worse on the road where they are giving up 31.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Carolina’s offense is taking a big step-down in defensive class after facing the Seahawks, Packers, Bengals, and Ravens’ defenses in recent weeks.      

Carolina’s defense is nothing like they were last season when they had one of the league’s top stop units.  This season, the Panthers have the #28 defense in efficiency ratings.  Overall, Carolina is giving up 26 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus opponents only averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Drew Brees lit the Panthers up last season even though Carolina had an elite defense; Brees completed 69.8% (60-86) of his passes for 594 yards and 5 touchdown passes.  The Panthers have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season, and they will play this game without a starting cornerback and their safety is a game-time decision.  The two offenses are definitely the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Saints and Panthers on Thursday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Washington comes into this game in Dallas off a confidence-building 19-17 win over Tennessee last Sunday.  The Redskins were mired in a 4-game losing streak, so a win was certainly needed.  Washington received a boost from quarterback Colt McCoy when he replaced the ineffective Kirk Cousins.  The Redskins responded to McCoy as he completed 11 of his 12 pass attempts for 128 yards and one touchdown thru the air.  McCoy will start once again tonight, so we expect Washington to carry some momentum into this game.  Washington’s defense has played well this season as they are only giving up 5.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.6 yards per play.  The Redskins also have a strong run defense that is allowing 103.3 yards per game on 3.9 yards per rush.  That defensive strength will be a huge factor in tonight’s game, especially since the Cowboys have morphed into a run heavy offense this season.  

Dallas lost their season opener, but they’ve won six consecutive games since.  The Cowboys  comes into this game off five straight big wins, and they are simply ripe for a letdown, especially since they are laying double digits into a divisional opponent.  The Cowboys trailed the Rams 21-0 before coming back for a 34-31 win.  After that game, Dallas crushed the Saints on Sunday night football.  Then they beat Houston in overtime, and then won in Seattle.  Last week, Dallas won their first division game when they beat the Giants 31-21.  Now the Cowboys are a facing another divisional opponent, yet they are laying double digits despite being in a terrible situational spot.  Dallas’ defense has been poor as they are giving up 6.2 yards per play to opponents averaging 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys have been favored in just three of their seven games this season by margins of 1.5, 5, and 4.5 which makes tonight’s posted line greatly inflated.  We’ll take the points with Washington in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play REDSKINS (+).

Green Bay comes into this game off four consecutive wins and spread covers, including last Sunday’s 38-17 blowout of the Panthers.  The Packers are now in a difficult scheduling spot as they must take to the road and play in one of the toughest venues in the NFL.  This is an easy game for the Packers to overlook since they have their bye on deck.  Green Bay was in a prime scheduling spot for their home game against Carolina as the Panthers were playing back-to-back road games after just playing 5 quarters against the Bengals the week before.  Green Bay is 2-2 on the road this season, but they really should be 1-3 and possibly even 0-4.  They won in Miami after scoring a touchdown with just 6 seconds left to play in the game.  The Packers other road win came in Chicago despite losing the first down battle 33-21 and getting out-yarded 496-358.       

New Orleans will play just their third home game of the season after playing on the road in four of their six games.  And since this is a spotlight game versus a name opponent, we expect the Saints to bring their best effort in this game, especially since they are off a loss.  New Orleans’ offense has been good this season, especially in their two home games.  The Saints are averaging 28.5 points per game versus opponents allowing 24.1 points per game.  Overall, the Saints are averaging 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Green Bay’s defense has been poor on the road where they are giving up 24 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  New Orleans is in a good situational and scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Saints in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play SAINTS (-).

Philadelphia is fresh off their bye, so we can expect a strong effort in this game.  The Eagles’ offense is terrific, and with an extra week to prepare, head coach Chip Kelly will unveil some unique and tricky plays in this game.  When coming off their bye last year, the Eagles scored 24 points in three quarters against the Cardinals.  Philadelphia is averaging 30.5 points per game against defenses that allow 25 points per game this season.  Arizona’s defense is giving up 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 5.8 yards per play on the season.  Philadelphia will move the ball consistently on the Cardinals just like they did in last year’s game.

Arizona’s offense has been good under quarterback Carson Palmer this season.  In his three starts, Palmer has completed 66.1% (74-112) of his passes while averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt.  Palmer has thrown 6 touchdown passes and just 1 interception on the season.  He will face a poor Philadelphia defense that has allowed 13 touchdown passes this season; the Eagles only have 3 interceptions.  Against the one potent offense they faced this season, Arizona gave up 41 points and 568 yards of total offense to the Broncos.  Arizona’s last home game versus Washington had a total of 50 points scored, and since they are playing a much more explosive offense in Philadelphia, we expect a high-scoring game between the Eagles and Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Houston will play their second consecutive road game, and it comes on a short week after playing in Pittsburgh on Monday night.  This will also be the Texans’ fifth road game over the last seven weeks, so this is simply a terrible scheduling spot for Houston.  The Texans have lost three straight games and four of their last five games overall.  Houston blew a 13-0 lead on Monday night, and tough games proceeded that.  Three weeks ago, the Texans lost 20-17 in overtime in Dallas.  Two weeks ago, the Texans trailed the Colts 24-0 at the end of the first quarter before making a big comeback and falling short 33-28.  And after last week’s blown lead, the Texans will be playing with a hangover against the Titans.  Houston is 3-4 on the season, but the Texans are actually 1-6 in the stats this season, being out-gained by six of their seven opponents in total yardage.

Tennessee is just 2-5 on the season, but the Titans have actually played better than their record indicates.  Tennessee has lost to the Cowboys, Bengals, Colts, and Browns who own a combined 17-8 record this season.  The Titans also lost to the Redskins last week, but that defeat only came by 2 points (19-17).  Tennessee will start Zach Mettenberger at quarterback in this game, and he should shake the offense up.  Mettenberger played well in the preseason when he completed 69.1% (47-68) of his passes on an impressive 9.7 yards per pass attempt.  Tennessee has a decent running game that is averaging 4.5 yards per rush this season, and they’ll be facing a poor Houston rush defense that is allowing 4.3 yards per rush.  Tennessee’s defense is in good form as they’ve held their last two opponents to 19 and 14 points.  The Titans have 8 interceptions and 18 sacks on the season, so they’ve played good defense.  We’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Sunday.       

10* Play TITANS (+).

Atlanta is a complete mess right now, and this trip to London is not going to make things any better.  The Falcons have lost four consecutive games both SU and ATS, and their roster has been decimated by injuries.  Atlanta’s biggest area of concern is on their offensive line where they just lost their starting center last week after losing a pair of starters over the previous couple of weeks.  The Falcons will have to start an undrafted rookie free agent at center, and that is the worst possible situation against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.  Atlanta’s offense is in terrible form because of the line woes, and quarterback Matt Ryan has been sacked ten times over the last three games.  Ryan has only completed 61.1% (77-126) of his passes on a weak 6.5 yards per pass attempt over the last three games.  Atlanta also owns one of the worst defenses in the league.  The Falcons are giving up 28.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus opponents that are averaging 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.    

Detroit comes in off a confidence building win in their last game.  The Lions scored a touchdown with just 1:48 left to play to beat the Saints 24-23.  With five minutes left in the game, Detroit trailed 23-10.  Teams often carry over momentum off such a win, and with Detroit facing a struggling opponent, we certainly expect that to be the case.  The Lions have the best defense in the NFL; they’ve held all seven opponents to 24 points or less.  Overall, Detroit allows just 15 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus opponents averaging 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  This is a game in which the two teams are heading in opposite directions as the Lions are 4-1 over their last five games while the Falcons are 1-4 over their last five games.  Detroit is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this early NFL kick off on Sunday morning.      

9* Play LIONS (-).

Ohio State comes into this game with a solid 5-1 SU and ATS record.  The Buckeyes lost their second game of the season to Virginia Tech, but since that loss, they’ve steamrolled their opponents by a combined score of 224-69.  Ohio State scored 50 points or more in all four of those games.  However, they played four overmatched teams that have terrible defenses.  Ohio State will finally play a competent opponent that also has a fantastic defense.  The Buckeyes have faced a group of defenses that are allowing 27.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Those same teams also have awful run defenses that allow opponents to average 193.8 yards per game on the ground on 4.7 yards per rush.  Ohio State has cruised in their last four games, but the competition gets a lot tougher this week in Happy Valley.   

Penn State opened the season at 4-0, but they’ve lost their last two games.  The good thing for head coach James Franklin and his Nittany Lions is they come into this game off their bye week.  Penn State was able to regroup and get back to the things that were working well when their season began with four straight wins.  Penn State has played outstanding defense this season.  The Nittany Lions are giving up just 15.2 points per game on 4.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging 24.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Penn State’s run defense has been tremendous as they give up just 60.8 yards per game on a minuscule 2.0 yards per rush.  Ohio State is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Penn State in this game as the Buckeyes are facing a Penn State defense that is allowing 12.7 points per game and 1.4 yards per play less per game than the opponents Ohio State has faced this season.  Penn State remembers last year’s 49 point (63-14) loss at Ohio State, and since they’ve had two weeks to prepare, we’ll take the big points with the Nittany Lions in this game on Saturday night.      

10* Play PENN STATE (+).

Mississippi is every bit as good as their 7-0 record indicates.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their record is not a shocker at all.  Mississippi’s defense has been outstanding this season.  The Rebels are giving up just 10.6 points per game versus opponents that average 30.5 points per game.  Mississippi allows just 4.2 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  LSU has not faced a defense remotely close to Mississippi’s as the Tigers’ opponents are allowing 28 points per game on 5.5 yards per play as a group this season.   

LSU is 6-2 this season, but the Tigers have beat absolutely nothing.  Their two losses have come against Mississippi State and Auburn by a combined score of 75-36.  Mississippi is better than those two teams as the Rebels are actually rated #1 in my power ratings.  LSU will face a strong Mississippi offense that is averaging 35.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Tigers have faced a weak slate of offenses that average 27.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Mississippi is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

Michigan has had a tumultuous season.  The Wolverines come into this game at Michigan State with a poor 3-4 record.  However, Michigan got a confidence-building 18-13 win over Penn State in their last game.  Michigan went into their bye week with confidence, and since they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, we expect another strong performance by the Wolverines.  Despite the losing record this season, Michigan has played exceptional defense against a tough slate of opposing offenses.  The Wolverines are giving up 21.4 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 29.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Michigan’s run defense has been tremendous as they give up just 93.6 yards per game on a minuscule 2.7 yards per rush.  To compare, Michigan State’s offense has faced rush defenses allowing 180.6 yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.             

Michigan State is 6-1 on the season, but according to my strength of schedule ratings, the Spartans have played a very weak schedule.  The Spartans’ offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 32.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play as a group this season.  Michigan State is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Michigan in this game.  In fact, the Spartans are facing a Wolverines’ defense that is allowing 10.7 points per game and 1.4 yards per play less per game than the opponents Michigan State has faced this season.  Michigan has a decent enough rushing offense to move the ball as they are averaging 164.1 yards per game on the ground on 4.7 yards per rush.  Michigan State has played four FBS opponents from major conferences this season, and they won just one of those games by more than 14 points.  Michigan is also playing with revenge from last year’s 29-6 loss.  This is a lot of points for a rivalry game, and since Michigan has a strong defense and they are coming in off a week of rest, we’ll take the points with the Wolverines in this game on Saturday afternoon.       

9* Play MICHIGAN (+).

North Carolina appears to be playing better football over the last two weeks as the Tar Heels have covered back-to-back games.  However, their game two weeks ago against Notre Dame should be discounted because the Irish were overlooking North Carolina after upsetting Stanford the week before while having a game at Florida State on deck.  Notre Dame still won and scored 50 points in that game.  Last week, North Carolina beat Georgia Tech 48-43 despite allowing 611 yards of total offense.  The Tar Heels scored the game-winning touchdown with just 11 seconds left to play in the game.  North Carolina must now take to the road and face a good Virginia team returning home off a loss.  The Tar Heels have an atrocious defense that is allowing 43.3 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  North Carolina’s offense appears to be good after scoring 91 points in their last two games, but they are only averaging 5.7 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.5 yards per play this season. 

Virginia comes into this game off a 20-13 road loss at Duke last Saturday.  That was a misleading final score as the Cavaliers actually had a 23-19 first down edge while out-gaining Duke 465-334.  Virginia went into that game off a bye, and despite losing, they certainly played good enough to win, so it’s an easy loss to overlook.  The Cavaliers have played tremendous defense this season as they are only giving up 22.1 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Virginia’s defense has been even better at home where they give up just 18.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  This is a historical rivalry game as the two teams have been playing since 1919, and after last year’s 45-14 loss at North Carolina, the Cavaliers will be quite focused for some payback.  We’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers as they own the superior defense while playing with some strong motivation.   

9* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Texas was in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for their home game last week versus Iowa State.  The Longhorns went into that game off their close rivalry loss to Oklahoma the week before, and they simply had nothing left for the Cyclones.  Texas did win 48-45, so pulling out the win is certainly a positive heading into this game at Kansas State.  The Longhorns’ defense suffered the most from the Oklahoma hangover, but we expect a bounce back performance in this game.  Texas has played terrific defense this season despite last week’s poor results.  The Longhorns are allowing 24.6 points per game on 4.5 yards per play to opponents averaging 32.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Texas also has a superb secondary that permits just 5.6 yards per pass attempt against opponents averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt.           

Kansas State returns home off an upset win in Oklahoma last week.  The Wildcats won that game 31-30, but they should have lost.  Kansas State lost the first down battle 30-17 and they were out-yarded 533-385.  Oklahoma missed a chip-shot field goal that would have won the game, so Kansas State was extremely fortunate to escape with a win.  The Wildcats went into that game off a bye, and the fact they were out-played is really a negative sign coming into this game.  Kansas State has played a weak slate of opposing defenses this season.  The Wildcats’ opponents are allowing 34.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Kansas State is taking a big step-up in defensive class against Texas, especially since the Longhorns are giving up 9.7 points per game and 1.3 yards per play less than the defenses the Wildcats have faced.  Texas is a live underdog, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play TEXAS (+).

BYU is in a difficult scheduling and situational spot for this Friday night game at Boise State, especially since they are playing on a short week.  The Cougars come in off three straight losses, including back-to-back games in which they blew double digit leads.  Two weeks ago, BYU led Central Florida 24-10 in the third quarter before losing 27-24 in overtime.  Last Saturday, BYU led Nevada 28-13 at the half before losing 42-35.  The Cougars racked up 610 yards of offense in their last game and still lost.  That is a game that is tough to overcome, so BYU will be playing with a hangover in tonight’s game.  BYU is also dealing with a slew of injuries, and in fact, they have 24 sprained ankles on their roster.  They also lost super QB Taysom Hill to a season-ending injury a few games ago, and their season appears to be spiraling out of control right now.       

Boise State is paying a second consecutive home game for the first time this season; this is just their fourth home game of the season after playing four of their first six games on the road.  The Broncos handled Fresno State 37-27 last Friday night in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates.  Boise State held a 24-12 first down edge while out-yarding the Bulldogs 492-313.  Boise State is averaging 32 points per game versus opponents that only give up 25.5 points per game.  They are averaging 6.1 yards per play versus opponents giving up 5.7 yards per play.  The Broncos’ defense has also been impressive in holding teams to just 5.2 yards per play despite those offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play as a group.  BYU’s defense has been terrible lately as they’ve given up 31 points or more in their last four games.  Boise State is also playing with revenge after losing 37-20 at BYU last season.  We’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Friday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

San Diego comes into this game off a 23-20 home loss to Kansas City on Sunday.  The Chargers were not in the best of spots for that game as they were coming off a comeback road win in Oakland while the Chiefs were fresh off their bye.  San Diego will be focused tonight since they are playing off a crucial divisional loss, especially since this is another divisional game.  San Diego has hung tough versus the Broncos over their last few meetings.  The Chargers are just 1-3 SU over the last four meetings, but their three losses have all come by 8 points or less.  San Diego has the right formula for being competitive against Denver; the Chargers play ball control offense and keep Peyton Manning off the field.  In their last two regular season games, San Diego held the ball for over 38 minutes in each game, resulting in Denver scoring no more than 28 points.   

Denver was fantastic in their 42-17 blowout win over the 49ers on Sunday night.  We had a Best Bet winner on the Broncos in that game, so their big win was expected.  Peyton Manning broke the TD passing record in that game, and off such a big performance, we can expect some regression tonight, especially against a tough divisional opponent.  The Broncos’ offense will face a San Diego defense that has contained them well over the last few meetings, and a defense that is only giving up 16.3 points per game this season.  Denver has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 24 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Broncos are in a bad situational spot against a tough match-up while taking a step-up in class.  We’ll take the points with the San Diego in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

Arkansas State was projected to be a mediocre team this season.  The Red Wolves season wins total was set at 7, and with an early 4-2 record, they’ve overachieved thus far.  Arkansas State returned just four starters on offense, and they are playing for their fifth new coach in five years.  Blake Anderson moved from offensive coordinator to head coach, a position he’s never held before.  At some point, the coaching turnover has to catch up to Arkansas State, and we think it will tonight on the road against one of the better teams in the conference.  Arkansas State’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played an extremely weak slate of opposing offenses that are only averaging 22.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  The Red Wolves will face the best offense in the conference tonight, so they will be exposed.

Louisiana-Lafayette was the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season.  The Ragin’ Cajuns returned 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway who put-up big numbers last season.  The offense was potent in averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013, and their defense was much improved.  But things haven’t panned out like expected thus far in 2014.  The Ragin’ Cajuns come in with a 3-3 record, but two of those losses were expected in games at Mississippi and at Boise State.  We fully expect UL-Lafayette to play up to their expectations now that they are playing Sun Belt opposition.  UL-Lafayette likes playing on Tuesday night:  “I think we’ve got a pretty good recipe for playing on these Tuesday nights,” UL head coach Mark Hudspeth said.  “Last year we were undefeated on Tuesday nights.  The way we prepare will lend itself to playing well in this game.”  They are already 1-0 this season with an easy 34-10 underdog win last Tuesday at Texas State.  We’ll take the points again with UL-Lafayette in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play UL-LAFAYETTE (+).

Houston comes into this Monday night game in Pittsburgh off back-to-back tough games.  Two weeks ago, the Texans lost 20-17 in overtime in Dallas.  Last week, the Texans trailed the Colts 24-0 at the end of the first quarter before making a big comeback and falling short 33-28.  While they do have some extra time to prepare for this game, the Texans are not in a good situational spot at all.  Houston is 3-3 on the season, but the Texans are actually 0-6 in the stats this season, being out-gained by all six opponents in total yardage.  Houston’s three wins this season have come against the Redskins, Raiders, and Bills who are a combined 6-14 on the season.     

Pittsburgh was humiliated in their last game in Cleveland; the Steelers lost 31-10 after beating the Browns in 20 of their previous 22 meetings.  The Steelers return home for just their third game of the season after playing four of their last five games on the road.  Pittsburgh is in a good spot to bounce back strong, especially on their home field in front of their fans.  Prior to their poor performance in Cleveland, the Steelers’ offense was in good current form as they had scored 78 points over their previous three games.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 72.6% (77-106) of his passes with 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions in those three games.  Houston’s defense has been poor on the road this season as they are allowing 6.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh is in a good spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Steelers on Monday night.

10* Play STEELERS (-).

San Francisco comes into this game off three consecutive wins and spread covers, including Monday night’s 31-17 win in St. Louis.  The 49ers are now in a difficult scheduling spot as they must take to the road on a short week and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The 49ers virtually had no prep time for this game, and since they are off a divisional win and now playing an out of conference opponent, this is an easy game to overlook, especially since they have their bye on deck.  San Francisco was in prime scheduling spots for their recent home games against the Eagles and Chiefs, yet they were only able to win those games by 5 points apiece.  San Francisco’s offense has underperformed this season as they are averaging 5.8 yards per play versus opponents allowing 6.0 yards per play.  Overall, the 49ers are only averaging 23.5 points per game, and they’ve scored 28 points or less in five of their six games this season.  

Denver will play the first of only two home games over a 6-week stretch.  And since this is a spotlight game versus a name opponent, we expect the Broncos to bring their best effort in this game.  Denver’s offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 72 points over their last two games.  Quarterback Peyton Manning completed 53 of his 80 passes for 716 yards with 7 touchdown passes in those two games.  Denver’s offense has been incredible at home this season.  The Broncos are averaging 32 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus opponents allowing 22.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Denver is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

The New York Giants come into this game in Dallas off an embarrassing 27-0 loss in Philadelphia last Sunday night.  Off such a humiliating performance, we certainly except the Giants to bounce back with their best effort.  Prior to that loss to the Eagles, the Giants were playing good football as they went into that game on a 3-0 SU and ATS streak.  Quarterback Eli Manning was thriving in the new offense prior to last week’s clunker; completing 69.1% (94-136) of his passes with a 10/3 TD/INT ratio over his previous four games.  Manning will face a Dallas secondary that has only faced two good passing offenses in their six games.  Despite that, the Cowboys are allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt this season. 

Dallas comes into this game off a huge upset win in Seattle last Sunday.  The Cowboys closed as 10-point underdogs in that game, so the win was certainly unexpected.  Dallas has played in four straight high intensity games that have them set for a letdown.  The Cowboys trailed the Rams 21-0 before coming back for a 34-31 win.  After that game, Dallas crushed the Saints on Sunday night football.  Then they beat Houston in overtime, and last week they won in Seattle.  Now the Cowboys are a facing a familiar divisional opponent, and they are laying close to a full touchdown.  Under Jason Garrett, Dallas is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS based on the posted line at home against the Giants over the last three years.  Their lone win only came by 5 points, and since the Cowboys were never higher than a 4.5-point home favorite over New York in those games, there’s some good value on the Giants in this game.  Dallas is not as good as their 5-1 record indicates, so we’ll take the points with New York on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play GIANTS (+).

Cleveland is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Jacksonville.  Two weeks ago, the Browns came back from a 28-3 deficit to win 29-28 in Tennessee.  Last week, the Browns crushed Pittsburgh from the opening kick en route to a 31-10 win.  Off back-to-back big wins, Cleveland is in a major letdown spot, especially since they have to go on the road and lay a handful of points into an out of division opponent.  Cleveland also has to replace their starting center, Alex Mack, who is out for the season after breaking his leg in last week’s game.  Mack is Cleveland’s best lineman, and his absence is a major loss for the Browns.  Cleveland’s defense is terrible as they are allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Browns have no business laying this many points on the road, even against a team like the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is starting to play better football now that quarterback Blake Bortles is playing.  The Jaguars have been a competitive bunch recently, and they finally get an opponent they match up well against at home.  Jacksonville won 32-28 in Cleveland last season, so they know they can play with the Browns.  These next two games are ultra important for the Jaguars because they come on their home field before hitting the road for likely losses against the Bengals and Cowboys.  Jacksonville’s defense has been stout over the last two weeks as they held the Steelers and Titans to just 33 total points.  With Cleveland off two consecutive emotional wins and Jacksonville gaining confidence with their recent play, we’ll take the points with the Jaguars in this game on Sunday.     

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Iowa State has hung tough against some good opponents this season.  The Cyclones are only 2-4 SU overall, but they’ve played a brutal schedule with their four losses coming against Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and FCS powerhouse North Dakota State.  The Cyclones are now off a confidence building home win, so they come into this game in much better shape than Texas.  Iowa State’s defense has faced a slew of potent offenses that average 37.5 points per game.  The Cyclones will take a big step down in class here against a Texas offense that is only averaging 19.7 points per game on 4.8 yards per play this season.

Texas is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game against Iowa State.  The Longhorns are off back-to-back big games, including their 31-26 loss to rival Oklahoma last Saturday.  Texas put everything they had into that game, and it is hard to imagine the Longhorns have much left now for a team like Iowa State, especially after battling back from a 31-13 deficit with just 12 minutes left to play in the Oklahoma game last week.  Despite losing, Texas dominated Oklahoma as they out-yarded them 482-232 which was their best offensive output of the season.  It was all for not, and that effort is going to leave Texas flat for this game.  Take Iowa State plus the points.

9* Play IOWA STATE (+).

Nebraska comes into this game with an impressive 5-1 SU and ATS record.  But their lone loss came against the one good team they played; Michigan State won 27-22 in a misleading final score as Nebraska trailed 27-3 in the fourth quarter.  Nebraska has not played a tough schedule at all this season.  The Cornhuskers have faced a slew of terrible defenses that are giving up 30.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Nebraska will face a solid Northwestern defense that is allowing 17.5 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 26.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Nebraska’s offensive strength is running the football, but the Wildcats allow just 3.7 yards per rush versus opponents averaging 4.4 yards per rush.        

Northwestern opened the season with unexpected back-to-back home losses, and since those games, the Wildcats have been undervalued.  Northwestern is 3-1 in their last four games, including a 20-14 home win over Wisconsin, a team similarly built like Nebraska.  The Wildcats have played a much tougher schedule than it appears, and in fact, they’ve played a tougher schedule than Nebraska.  These two teams have played three close, low-scoring games over the last three years.  The winning team scored 29 points or less in all three games with the winning margins being 3, 1, and 3 points.  The close results make sense since both Nebraska and Northwestern are both run-heavy teams that rely on their defenses to win games.  In a game that comes right down to the wire, we’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Oklahoma State is not the same team they’ve been in year’s past, but they are still a tough out for opponents.  The Cowboys are 5-1 on the season with their lone loss coming by just 6 points (37-31) to Florida State in their season opener.  Oklahoma State has played above average football on both sides of the ball this season.  The Cowboys’ offense is averaging 37.2 points per game versus opponents allowing 30.9 points per game.  Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 25.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Cowboys have been terrific against the run as they are allowing just 109.8 yards per game on a minuscule 3.1 yards per rush.  Oklahoma State’s ability to stop the run will be a determining factor in this game.  

TCU is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Horned Frogs lost their first game of the season last week at Baylor after blowing a 21-point lead with 11 minutes left to play in the game.  Baylor kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired, and off that heartbreaking 61-58 loss, TCU will play with a hangover in this game.  The Horned Frogs were off an emotional, high-scoring home underdog win over Oklahoma the week before, so consecutive weeks of close games will leave TCU empty for Oklahoma State.  TCU has faced a slew of poor defensive teams that give up 31.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Horned Frogs are now facing a strong Oklahoma State defense, so that is against them as well.  This is simply an awful spot for TCU, so we’ll take the generous points with Oklahoma State on Saturday afternoon.   

10* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (+).

Baylor is in a difficult scheduling and situational spot for this early start game in West Virginia.  The Bears come in off a huge comeback win at home over TCU last Saturday; they trailed by 21 points with just about 11 minutes left to play in the game.  Teams sometimes tend to ride momentum after such a win, but this game for Baylor doesn’t fit that mold.  They just beat a TCU team that was undefeated and ranked high in the polls while piling up an incredible 782 yards of total offense.  Baylor was also playing their first home game in over a month’s time after playing three straight games on the road.  Now Baylor must take to the road once again, and play an early game while laying points into a West Virginia team they beat 73-42 last season.  There’s a very good chance Baylor is gassed, and they are actually in a flat spot, especially since they have a bye on deck.       

West Virginia is much improved this season.  The Mountaineers went just 4-8 last season, but they come into this game at 4-2 SU with their two losses coming to Alabama and Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers were impressive in both defeats as they only lost 33-23 to Alabama and 45-33 to Oklahoma.  Baylor would be an underdog against both of those teams according to my power ratings, so West Virginia holds value in this game.  West Virginia has a strong offense with Clint Trickett at quarterback; they average 36.7 points per game versus opponents allowing 30.4 points per game.  Baylor has strong seasonal defense numbers, but they are skewed due to the weak offenses they played.  The Bears’ defense was exposed last week when TCU scored 58 points while putting up 485 yards of offense.  West Virginia has a strong pass defense, and that’s a key ingredient to have when facing Baylor.  The Mountaineers are only allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt to opponents averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt.  West Virginia is a live underdog, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

Fresno State is in a rebuilding season after losing the majority of their key players from last year’s record-setting team.  The Bulldogs fielded their best team in a decade last season, so it was expected they would suffer thru growing pains in 2014.  The Bulldogs were crushed in their first three games against good teams; they lost by a combined score of 166-59.  Since those losses, Fresno State has played four terrible opponents and they went 3-1 SU in those games.  Last Friday night, the Bulldogs lost 30-27 in overtime at a terrible UNLV team.  That ugly loss could now linger, especially since they are stepping way up in class and now playing on the blue turf against Boise State.  Fresno State has lost seven of the last eight meetings, but they did win 41-40 at home last season, but again, that was with their best team over the last ten years.

Boise State has revenge and they come into this game off their bye week, so they are the much fresher team.  This will also be their first home game in a month, and just their third home game of the season after playing four of their first six games on the road.  Boise State has always been a much stronger team on their home field, and against a poor defense like Fresno State, we expect the Broncos to produce one of their best offensive games of the season.  Boise State is averaging 31.2 points per game versus opponents that only give up 23.5 points per game.  They are averaging 6.1 yards per play versus opponents giving up 5.6 yards per play.  The Broncos’ defense has also been impressive in holding teams to just 5.2 yards per play despite those offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play as a group.  Boise State will bring their best effort in this revenge game, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Friday night.

10* Play BOISE STATE (-).

After winning their season opener against Oakland, the New York Jets have lost five consecutive games.  However, the Jets have played a brutal schedule with games against the Packers, Bears, Lions, Chargers, and Broncos.  All five of those teams have strong passing offenses, and since the Jets’ weakness comes in the secondary, their opponents held a big advantage.  The Jets’ defense is not nearly as bad as they’ve looked, and we’re willing to look past their recent results.  New York is actually taking a big step-down in class tonight against the New England offense.  The Patriots have scored 80 points in their last two games, but those were outlier performances that came after New England scored a total of 30 points in their previous two games.  The Patriots’ offense is not nearly as good as they’ve looked over the last two weeks, and their passing game has been poor all season.  Quarterback Tom Brady has completed just 62.5% of his passes this season while throwing to a mishmash group of receivers.  With the season-ending injury to RB Stevan Ridley last week, New England’s offense has to be reconfigured, and that’s extremely difficult to do on a short week. 

New York’s offense has been woeful this season.  The Jets have scored 24 points or less in all six games, including 19 points or less in five of their six games.  Overall, the Jets are only averaging 16 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Things won’t get any better against a good New England defense that is allowing just 21.5 points per game this season.  In two home games, the Patriots have given up a total of 26 points.  Quarterback Geno Smith has been terrible while only completing 57.1% of his passes on 6.0 yards per pass attempt.  Smith is close to being replaced by Mike Vick, but he’s old and never was much of a passer.  New York will pound the ball on the ground in order to shorten the game and stay competitive.  Since recent results have inflated this total a couple of points, we’ll take the Under between the Jets and Patriots on Thursday night.

9* Play UNDER the total.

Louisiana-Lafayette was the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season.  The Ragin’ Cajuns returned 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway who put-up big numbers last season.  The offense was potent in averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013, and their defense was much improved.  But things haven’t panned out like expected thus far in 2014.  The Ragin’ Cajuns come in with a 2-3 record, but two of those losses were expected in games at Mississippi and at Boise State (2 Best Bet winners for us going against UL-Lafayette).  The Ragin’ Cajuns were playing without their best offensive threat (WR Jamal Robinson), but he recently returned and the offense perked up last week, scoring 34 points on 461 yards.  With a return to Sun Belt opponents, we fully expect UL-Lafayette to play up to their expectations.     

Texas State was projected to be a poor team this season.  The Bobcats season wins total was set at 6, and with an early 3-2 record, they’ve overachieved thus far.  Texas State’s defense returned just four starters, and the coaching situation set them back.  Coordinator John Thompson was hired just one week before spring practice.  He implemented a 4-2-5 scheme with inexperienced players, and the Bobcats have struggled mightily this season.  Texas State is allowing 28.2 points per game versus offenses only averaging 21.4 points per game.  The Bobcats will face the best offense in the conference tonight, so they will be further exposed.  UL-Lafayette likes playing on Tuesday night: “I think we’ve got a pretty good recipe for playing on these Tuesday nights,” UL head coach Mark Hudspeth said.  “Last year we were undefeated on Tuesday nights. The way we prepare will lend itself to playing well in this game.”  We’ll take the points with UL-Lafayette as they are simply the better team. 

9* Play UL-LAFAYETTE (+).

San Francisco comes in off back-to-back home wins over the Eagles and Chiefs.  The 49ers caught both teams in terrible spots, yet San Francisco was only able to beat Philadelphia by 5 points (26-21) and Kansas City by 5 points (22-17).  Now they are heading out on the road and laying a field goal into a desperate divisional opponent that is sure to bring their best effort.  Unlike their last two games, the 49ers are now the team in the bad scheduling spot while their opponent has the situational edge.  San Francisco’s offense has underperformed this season as they are averaging 5.6 yards per play versus opponents allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Overall, the 49ers are only averaging 22 points per game, and they’ve scored 28 points or less in all five of their games this season.  

St. Louis was projected to be a sleeper team in the NFC West this season.  But obviously that hasn’t been the case since the Rams come into this game with a 1-3 record.  The Rams are playing their first divisional game of the season, and they are also playing their first home game since September 21st.  St. Louis also had a bye prior to their last game, so they are a fresher team than the 49ers.  Last week in Philadelphia, the Rams got down 34-7 before making a big comeback and falling short 34-28.  That was a positive sign since St. Louis didn’t quit in that game, and with a return home, we can expect a strong effort from the opening kick.  Quarterback Austin Davis has been good in completing 67.8% of his passes on 7.9 yards per pass attempt.  St. Louis is the more desperate team, and they are playing a San Francisco team that appears down a few notches.  We’ll take the points with the Rams in this game on Monday night.      

9* Play RAMS (+).

The New York Giants have played much better football over the last three weeks.  After opening the season with back-to-back losses, the Giants come into tonight on a 3-game winning streak.  The Giants have been terrific on both sides of the ball over their last three games as they’ve won those games by a combined score of 105-51.  Quarterback Eli Manning is thriving in the new offense while completing 69.1% (94-136) of his passes with a 10/3 TD/INT ratio over his last four games.  Manning will face a poor Philadelphia secondary that has allowed 1,458 passing yards and 13 touchdown passes to Chad Henne, Kirk Cousins, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, and Austin Davis.  Aside from Luck, the other four quarterbacks are not elite passers by any means, so Manning should have a lot of success throwing the ball on the Eagles.

Philadelphia has been the luckiest team in the NFL so far this season.  The Eagles won their first three games after coming back from double-digit deficits.  Over their last two games, the Eagles have scored 5 non-offensive touchdowns.  Despite that, they lost 26-21 in San Francisco and barely hung on to beat St. Louis 34-28.  The Eagles’ run of good fortune cannot continue, and Philadelphia is in for a reality check in this divisional game against a surging team.  The Eagles’ defense has played below average football this season as they are giving up 26.4 points per game versus opponents that are averaging just 22.1 points per game.  Teams with poor stop units make poor favorites, especially when their opponent is better.  Philadelphia is a phony 4-1 team, so we’ll take the points with New York on Sunday night.  

9* Play GIANTS (+).

San Diego comes into this game with a 4-1 record, and their win/loss ledger makes them appear much better than they actually are.  The Chargers beat the Jets, Jaguars, and Bills over the last three weeks, and they’ve been underdogs in three of their five games this season, including their two road games at Arizona and Buffalo.  Off three straight wins over bad teams, the oddsmakers have now inflated San Diego’s worth by making them a touchdown road favorite over a division opponent.  That’s too much of an adjustment for this game, even against a 0-4 team like the Raiders.  San Diego played a perfect game last week when they blanked the Jets 31-0.  Teams off shutout wins are poor long-term ATS plays in the NFL, especially when they are playing on the road and laying points which is exactly the case for the Chargers in this game.

Oakland is in a very good scheduling and situational spot for this game.  The Raiders come in off their bye week after firing head coach Dennis Allen.  The Raiders will play under interim head coach Tony Sparano, and if they are ever going to come with their best effort, this is the game.  Home underdogs off a week of rest is a strong angle in the NFL, especially in divisional games.  Winless underdogs off a bye are an even stronger play and the Raiders fit a fantastic 22-6 (79%) ATS angle based on that premise.  Oakland beat San Diego 27-17 at home last season, so they’ll also have confidence coming into this game.  The Raiders will get quarterback Derek Carr back for this game, and he has kept the team competitive in a 5-point loss at the Jets and a 7-point loss at the Patriots.  San Diego has Kansas City and Denver on deck, so this game in Oakland is an easy one to overlook.  The Raiders have everything in their favor, so we’ll take the points with Oakland on Sunday afternoon.     

10* Play RAIDERS (+).

Pittsburgh and Cleveland will play for the second time this season.  The Steelers beat the Browns 30-27 back in Week 1.  That game was a tale of two halves as Pittsburgh went into halftime with a commanding 27-3 lead.  As we’ve seen all season, Cleveland battled back to make it a game before losing on a last-second field goal.  Pittsburgh will surely remember that close game, and once they get ahead today, they won’t sit on the lead, especially since they recently lost to Tampa Bay by going conservative late in the game.  Pittsburgh’s offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 78 points over their last three games.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 72.6% (77-106) with 6 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those three games.  Roethlisberger threw for 365 yards against Cleveland in the first meeting, so he should have another big game here, especially since the Browns are ranked 28th in pass defense.

Cleveland has played in some wild and crazy games this season.  The Browns seem to thrive on making big comebacks, and there was no bigger comeback by a regular season road team than last week.  Cleveland trailed Tennessee 28-3 before coming back to win 29-28.  That comeback win is now in the record books, and off such a game, we expect the Browns to regress sharply today.  Cleveland is just 2-20 SU versus Pittsburgh over their last 22 meetings, and while the teams and personnel have changed, the psychology of losing is part of this rivalry.  Cleveland’s defense is terrible as they are allowing 26.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus opponents averaging just 22.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Browns have no business laying points, so we’ll back the Steelers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (+).

Mississippi is every bit as good as their 5-0 record indicates.  The Rebels have cashed three Best Bet winners for us this season, including last week’s 23-17 win over Alabama.  There’s simply no reason for us not to back Mississippi once again in this game.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their record is not a shocker at all.  Mississippi’s defense has been outstanding this season.  The Rebels are giving up just 10.2 points per game versus opponents that average 29.1 points per game.  Mississippi allows just 4.1 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  Texas A&M has not faced a defense remotely close to Mississippi’s as the Aggies’ opponents are allowing 39.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play as a group this season.   

Texas A&M is a fraudulent 5-1 team.  The Aggies were exposed in their 48-31 loss at Mississippi State last Saturday.  Texas A&M should have lost to Arkansas, but they survived in overtime.  The Aggies' claim to fame so far this season was their opening 52-28 blowout win over South Carolina.  Quarterback Kenny Hill came out of nowhere, and the Aggies are still overvalued because of that singular win.  South Carolina is not a good team, so that win gets less impressive week after week.  Texas A&M has a terrible defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per play against a slate of mediocre offenses that are only averaging 5.3 yards per play.  Mississippi’s offense will have a ton of success on the Aggies since they are averaging 35.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus opponents giving up 26.7 points per play on 5.4 yards per play.  Mississippi is the much better team, so we’ll take the points with the strong defensive underdog on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Houston comes into this game with a 2-3 SU, but that record looks better than it actually is.  The Cougars have played one of the easiest schedules in college football so far this season, and despite that, they’ve underperformed on the field.  Houston’s two wins this season have come over FCS Grambling State and a horrendous UNLV team.  The Cougars lost by 20 points at home to Texas-San Antonio, and they also lost last week at home to Central Florida.  Neither one of those two teams has much of an offense yet Houston allowed them to score 44 points.  Overall this season, Houston has faced a terrible collection of offenses that are only averaging 19.1 points per game on a weak 4.7 yards per play.  Houston’s defense is taking a major step-up in class for this game as Memphis is averaging 35.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.        

Memphis is a good team that many people do not know about.  The Tigers are just 3-2 SU on the season, but their two losses have come at UCLA and at Mississippi who are a combined 9-1 SU on the season.  Memphis returns home off back-to-back road games, and in fact, they’ve been on the road for three of their last four games.  The Tigers will be primed for a big effort in this game since it is their first conference home game.  Memphis comes in off a big 41-14 confidence building win at Cincinnati last Saturday, so they also bring a lot of momentum into this game.  Memphis’ offense is well balanced as they are averaging 210 yards per game on the ground and 231.6 yards per game thru the air.  Memphis has put those numbers up against a tough schedule, and their ability to run and pass will be too much for Houston to stop.  The Tigers’ defense has been terrific in allowing just 19.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 28.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Memphis is the superior team in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Tigers on Saturday night.           

10* Play MEMPHIS (-).

Auburn came thru as a Best Bet selection for us last week in their 41-7 waxing of LSU on Saturday night.  We’re going to come right back with the Tigers again this week, especially since there’s a lot of value in the current pointspread; my power ratings make Auburn a solid 6-point favorite in this game.  Auburn’s offense has been fantastic this season as they are averaging 42 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus opponents allowing 23.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Auburn’s defense has also played terrific this season as they are giving up just 14.4 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 35.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Auburn has put-up those gaudy numbers despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country so far this season.

Mississippi State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season.  The Bulldogs are certainly an improved team, and they won easily for us as underdogs at LSU.  However, Mississippi State has not played a tough team all season, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The five teams the Bulldogs have faced are allowing 25 points per game on 5.6 yards per play collectively as a group.  Mississippi State will face a much tougher defense in this game, especially since Auburn is allowing 10.6 points per game and 1.0 yards per play less than what the Bulldogs have been facing.  Mississippi State has faced two bad teams in SEC play so far as neither LSU nor Texas A&M are any good.  Auburn is better on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the short price with the Tigers in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play AUBURN (-).

Oregon lost their first game of the season last Thursday night when Arizona went into Autzen and won 31-24 as 21.5-point underdogs.  It was the second straight year that Oregon lost to Arizona, and because of that, this is a bad situational spot for the Ducks.  That was a big revenge game for Oregon, and since they came up empty, the Ducks are vulnerable in this game.  After losing to Arizona last year, Oregon only won their following game by a single point (36-35) and that game was on their home field.  Oregon has not played a tough schedule at all this season, and their performances have been below their standards.  The Ducks have faced a slew of terrible defenses that are giving up 34.8 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  Oregon will face a UCLA defense that is allowing 25.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play despite playing an imposing schedule so far this season.      

UCLA has been up and down, and they have not played up to their hype yet this season.  The Bruins are 4-1 SU but they are 1-4 ATS, and because of that there’s some tremendous value in this game.  UCLA has played a much tougher schedule than it appears.  At Virginia, home versus Memphis, on a neutral field versus Texas, at Arizona State, and home against Utah was a tough gauntlet for the Bruins.  Despite playing those tough opponents, UCLA’s offense is averaging 36 points per game versus defenses that are only allowing 22.8 points per game.  The Bruins will face a weak Oregon defense that gave up 31 points on 6.2 yards per play in their lone road game at Washington State this season.  UCLA should be the favorite in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Bruins in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play UCLA (+).

West Virginia is much improved this season.  The Mountaineers went just 4-8 last season, but they come into this game at 3-2 SU with their two losses coming to Alabama and Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers were impressive in both defeats as they only lost 33-23 to Alabama and 45-33 to Oklahoma.  After their back and forth game with the Sooners, West Virginia had a week off prior to their game with Kansas last Saturday.  It was hard for West Virginia to be focused for that game as Kansas is one of the worst teams in the country who just fired their head coach.  Despite winning just 33-14, the Mountaineers out-yarded Kansas 557-176 with a 25-9 first down advantage.  West Virginia has a strong offense with Clint Trickett at quarterback; they average 36.6 points per game versus opponents allowing 28.5 points per game.  The Mountaineers will go up and down the field on a terrible Texas Tech defense that is giving up 40 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.    

Texas Tech is not a good football team, and we saw that again last week when they lost 45-13 at Kansas State.  The Red Raiders are a dysfunctional team, and they’ve lost three straight games by a combined 63 points after opening the season with a pair of wins over two bad teams.  Head coach Kliff Kingsbury is in over his head, and the players have little respect for him according to insiders.  Despite playing four terrible defensive teams, Texas Tech’s offense is averaging less points per game than what those teams are giving up (29.6-30.5).  West Virginia’s defense is giving up a respectable 5.3 yards per play, so the Red Raiders will have trouble moving the ball.  Texas Tech is one-dimensional to the pass, but West Virginia has a strong pass defense that is only allowing 6.1 yards per pass attempt to opponents averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt.  West Virginia is simply the better team with significant match-up edges, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday.  

9* Play WEST VIRGINIA (-).

Indianapolis comes in off three straight big wins after opening the season with back-to-back losses.  The Colts beat Jacksonville 44-17, Tennessee 41-17, and last week they beat Baltimore 20-13.  Now they must take to the road on a short week and lay points into a divisional opponent that is much improved from last season.  The Colts are sure to regress off their last three performances, especially since they are in a bad situational and scheduling spot for this game.  Indianapolis has a terrible defense that is allowing 6.1 yards per play to opponents that average 5.7 yards per play.  Overall, the Colts’ defense ranks 20th in efficiency metrics despite playing just one offense that ranks in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency.  Indianapolis is not as good as their recent results, and this game provides the perfect opportunity to play against the Colts.

Houston is playing good football this season.  The Texans come into this game with a 3-2 record with their lone losses coming on the road.  Houston is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season, winning by a combined score of 40-23.  The Texans’ defense has been stout at home as they are only giving up 11.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Overall, Houston is only giving up 17.4 points per game versus opponents averaging 21.6 points per game.  The Texans are committed to the run under new head coach Bill O’Brien.  Houston is averaging 31.8 rushing attempts per game which ranks them #4 in the NFL, and overall, 52.7% of their plays come on the ground which ranks them #1 in the league.  Keeping the ball out of Andrew Luck’s hands is a sure way to beat the Colts, and Houston’s style of play can do exactly that.  We’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play TEXANS (+).

Seattle is fresh off their bye, so we can expect a strong effort in this game.  The Seahawks’ offense is terrific, and they will have one of the top scoring teams in the NFL at season’s end.  They’ve scored 83 points in their three games, averaging 27.7 points per game against defenses that only allow 18.5 points per game.  Washington’s defense is bad as they are giving up 27.2 points per game versus offenses that are averaging just 23 points per game on the season.  Seattle should be able to move the ball up and down the field on the Redskins just like they did in the playoffs two seasons ago.  The Seahawks ran for 224 yards on a whopping 6.1 yards per rush in that game.  Seattle has had extra time to prepare for this game, and when coming off a bye during the past two regular seasons, the Seahawks have scored 55 points in two games combined.  It is also interesting to note that primetime NFL games are 13-2 Over so far this season.

Washington comes into this game off an ugly home loss to the Giants on a Thursday night.  The Redskins lost that game 45-14, and with extra time to prepare for this game, we can also expect a strong effort from Washington.  The Redskins have a much better passing game with QB Kirk Cousins playing in place of an injured RGIII.  In the two games prior to the Giants, the Washington offense scored 41 points on the Jaguars and 34 points on the Eagles.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing 22 points per game this season, so they do not look like the same dominant unit they were last year when they allowed just 14 ppg.  Washington’s two home games this season have totaled 51 and 59 points scored, and since they are now playing an explosive offense, we expect a high-scoring game between the Redskins and Seahawks on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

New England will host Cincinnati on Sunday night football.  This game features a quirky scheduling dynamic that favors a low-scoring game.  Cincinnati comes into this game off their bye while the Patriots are playing on a short week after getting humiliated on Monday night football.  The Bengals are 3-0 SU and ATS on the season, and the bye actually came at a bad time for them.  Cincinnati had no sense of urgency during their time off, and after watching New England get blown out on Monday night, the Bengals might now come into this game a bit overconfident.  The Bengals’ offense has been heavy to the run so far this season, and they should have a similar game plan after seeing the Chiefs gash the Patriots for 207 yards on the ground.

The Patriots have regressed sharply on offense this season.  New England is averaging just 20 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus opponents allowing 23.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Cincinnati has a stout defense that will prevent New England from moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.  The Bengals are only allowing 11 points per game and 5.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 24.5 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  The Patriots are off their third most lopsided loss in the Belichick/Brady era, and since their defense was embarrassed, we expect a strong effort in this game.  New England’s offense simply isn’t the same as in year’s past, especially the passing game which is throwing for an anemic 5.5 yards per pass attempt this season.  Look for a low-scoring game between the Bengals and Patriots on Sunday night.

9* Play UNDER the total.

Kansas City played way over their heads on Monday night.  The Chiefs waxed the Patriots 41-14 after racking up 443 yards of total offense.  Kansas City has now won back-to-back games in blowout fashion; the Chiefs beat Miami 34-15 the week before.  Kansas City owns wins over a pair of AFC East teams by a combined score of 75-29, but things figure to be much tougher in this game against San Francisco.  Despite their +46 point differential over the last two weeks, Kansas City is only averaging 25.5 points per game versus opponents that are allowing 24.1 points per game this season.  The Chiefs are now stepping way up in class, and they are doing so while taking to the road on a short week.  This is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Kansas City, especially since they may be peaking ahead to their bye next week.

San Francisco beat Philadelphia 26-21 last week, but that score was not indicative of how the game played out on the field.  The 49ers dominated from the opening kick off and they out-yarded the Eagles 407-213 while not allowing an offensive touchdown.  The 49ers will be playing a consecutive home game for the first time this season, and since they will be on the road for four of their next fives games, this is an ultra important game to win.  San Francisco has a strong running game that averages 4.5 yards per rush, and the 49ers will run all over the Chiefs who are allowing a whopping 5.3 yards per rush since losing linebacker Derrick Johnson.  San Francisco is catching Kansas City at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the 49ers on Sunday.  

10* Play 49ERS (-).

The New York Jets dominated their season opener in a win over the Oakland Raiders with a 402-158 total yard edge, but New York has now lost three straight games since that opening week win.  However, the Jets faced three of the strongest passing attacks in the league, and all three teams play in the NFC.  The Packers, Bears, and Lions were able to take advantage of the Jets’ secondary because of their offensive style.  New York is getting a much needed class relief in this game against San Diego because the Chargers do not possess a balanced offense.  San Diego only averages 70 rushing yards per game (2.4 ypr), so New York will be able to focus more on stopping the pass today.  After this game, the Jets will return home to face another potent opponent in the Denver Broncos.  This is New York’s best shot at stealing a win, especially since they get a favorable match-up in which they can play their style of football and be competitive.

San Diego comes into this game with a 3-1 record, and their win/loss ledger makes them appear better than they actually are.  The Chargers beat the Jaguars and Bills over the last two weeks, and they’ve been underdogs in three of their four games this season.  Off back-to-back wins over a mediocre team and a terrible team, the oddsmakers have now inflated San Diego’s worth by making them close to a touchdown favorite.  That’s too much of an adjustment for this game, especially since San Diego will play three divisional games over the next 18 days.  The Jets will be able to throw the ball on a suspect San Diego secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  New York is better than their past few losses indicate, and since they are now facing an easier match-up, we’ll take the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday.

9* Play JETS (+).

St. Louis got a much needed week off, and coming off their bye, we expect a strong effort from the Rams in this game in Philadelphia.  The Rams are just 1-2 on the season with their lone win coming by just 2 points (19-17) at Tampa Bay.  That win did come on the road with their two losses coming at home, so it’s good that this game is away from home, especially since they’ve had extra time to prepare.  St. Louis will start Austin Davis at quarterback after a strong game against Dallas.  Overall this season, Davis is completing 72.3% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt.  Davis will face a poor Philadelphia secondary that has allowed 1,083 passing yards and 10 touchdown passes to Chad Henne, Kirk Cousins, Andrew Luck, and Colin Kaepernick.  Aside from Luck, the other three quarterbacks are not elite passers by any means, so Davis will have success throwing the ball on the Eagles.   

Philadelphia’s run of good fortune came to an end last week in San Francisco as the Eagles lost 26-21.  That 5-point loss was misleading as Philadelphia was out-yarded 407-213 with none of their three touchdowns coming on offense.  The Eagles scored on a blocked punt, an interception return, and a punt return.  Rumors are swirling that running back LeSean McCoy is playing on an injured toe, and that’s a major issue since he is Philadelphia’s biggest offensive threat.  The Eagles’ defense has played below average football this season as they are giving up 26 points per game versus opponents that are averaging 23.6 points per game.  Teams with poor stop units make poor favorites, especially when laying close to a touchdown.  This game will be closer than expected, so we’ll take the points with St. Louis on Sunday afternoon.     

9* Play RAMS (+).

Nebraska is a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season, but the Cornhuskers are getting little respect.  That is all because of their close, 7-point win over FCS McNeese State back in Week 2.  The other knock on Nebraska is their weak schedule, however, according to my strength of schedule ratings, the Cornhuskers have actually played a tougher schedule than Michigan State.  The Cornhuskers also have the better defense as they are only giving up 19 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus opponents that are averaging 26.8 points per game game on 5.6 yards per play.  Michigan State’s defense is allowing 20.2 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 19.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.        

Michigan State’s only “real” opponent so far this season was Oregon; the Spartans lost that game 46-27.  That loss looks even worse now that Oregon lost at home as 24-point favorites on Thursday night to Arizona.  The Spartans have not been challenged by a potent offense since that game, but they will be tested in this game.  Nebraska is averaging 45.4 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play.  The Cornhuskers have a strong running game that averages 354.8 yards per game on the ground on 6.9 yards per rush.  In last year’s game, Nebraska ran for a 182 yards on 5.7 yards per rush against a Michigan State defense that was one of the best in the country, especially against the run.  These two teams are even across the board, so we’ll take the points in a game that comes right down to the wire.       

9* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Texas Tech is not a good football team, and there’s rumors swirling around that they are a dysfunctional team.  The Red Raiders have lost back-to-back games after opening the season with a pair of wins over two bad teams.  Head coach Kliff Kingsbury is in over his head, and the players have little respect for him according to insiders.  Texas Tech has played four terrible defensive teams that are allowing 32.2 points per game and 6.6 yards per play as a group.  The Red Raiders will be facing a strong Kansas State defense that is giving up just 23 points per game and 4.6 yards per play.  Texas Tech is one-dimensional to the pass, but they may be without starting quarterback Davis Webb because of a shoulder injury.  If Webb is out, that means inexperienced Patrick Mahomes will get the start.  Mahomes is a running quarterback which does not fit Texas Tech’s offensive style.  The Red Raiders are in serious trouble regardless, and if Mahomes starts, they have little chance to be competitive.      

Kansas State is trending up, and head coach Bill Snyder holds a huge edge over Kingsbury in this game.  The Wildcats are 2-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming by just 6 points (20-14) to Auburn, a game they could have easily won.  Kansas State’s other two home wins have come by 39 and 30 points, and Snyder has never been shy about running up the score.  The Wildcats are averaging 42.3 points per game at home this season while Texas Tech’s defense is allowing 35.5 points per game on the road.  Kansas State’s offense will score at will against a terrible Texas Tech defense, especially since the Red Raiders play undisciplined football, committing 46 penalties for 422 yards in four games, the most in the country.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Kansas State on Saturday night.

10* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

LSU has won their last three games by a combined score of 150-7.  However, the Tigers have played nothing in terms of competition in those wins over FCS Sam Houston State, Louisiana Monroe, and New Mexico State.  The Tigers lost at home to Mississippi State in between, and they were challenged in their season opener by Wisconsin.  LSU needed 15 fourth quarter points to win that game; the Tigers allowed the Bulldogs and Badgers to run for a combined 570 yards on 6.6 yards per rush.  LSU will face a strong Auburn rushing attack that is averaging 260.5 yards on the ground per game on 5.5 yards per rush versus opponents allowing 160.4 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  LSU will not be able to contain Auburn’s running game, and that means it will be a long night for the road team. 

Auburn has had this game circled since losing 35-21 at LSU last season.  That was Auburn’s worst played game of the season, especially quarterback Nick Marshall who completed just 17 of his 33 passes with 2 interceptions.  Auburn still put up 437 yards of offense in that game with 213 of those yards coming on the ground.  Auburn’s offense has been fantastic this season as they are averaging 42.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus opponents allowing 27.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Auburn’s defense has also played terrific this season as they are giving up just 16.2 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 33.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Auburn will bring their best effort in this revenge game, so we’ll lay the points with the Tigers on Saturday night.   

9* Play AUBURN (-).

Alabama comes into this game at 4-0 SU, but they are just 1-3 ATS.  That is a major red flag considering Alabama played inferior opponents with poor defenses.  Alabama is taking a major step-up in defensive class in this game, so there’s value in playing against them, especially since they are laying points on the road.  Mississippi’s defense has been outstanding this season.  The Rebels are giving up just 8.5 points per game versus opponents that average 25.2 points per game.  Mississippi allows just 3.7 yards per play (versus opponents that average 5.7 yards per play), and it’s extremely rare to find a home underdog with such strong defensive numbers.  

Mississippi is a loaded team that includes 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team.  The Rebels have cashed two Best Bet winners for us this season, so there’s no reason not to back them in this game.  Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford, and his teams always improve as the years go on.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and they are much closer to Alabama than most would think.  Mississippi had a bye prior to last week’s game against Memphis (24-3 win), and we’re sure the Rebels were game planning for this game during that week off.  This is Mississippi’s ‘Game of the Year’ and they will put everything they have into this game.  We’ll take the points with the strong defensive home underdog in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Minnesota came thru as a Best Bet winner for us last week when they beat Atlanta 41-28.  There were a lot of factors in Minnesota’s favor for that game, but the opposite is true for tonight’s game in Green Bay.  The Vikings were off back-to-back poor performances in games that were terrible spots for them.  They were catching the Falcons off a 56-point performance, and Minnesota also got a boost from starting rookie Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.  Everything worked out, and the Vikings beat a flat Atlanta team.  Tonight they will be walking into a hostile environment, and all reports indicate that Christian Ponder will start at QB with Bridgewater nursing an ankle injury.  That means the Vikings will be playing with their third different starting quarterback in as many weeks, and it comes in a terrible spot on the road on a short week against a potent offensive opponent.  Even if Bridgewater does play, it will be difficult for him on just three days of rest and on the road in a hostile environment.  The weather forecast is also calling for an 80% chance of rain and thunderstorms during this game tonight.

Green Bay will play just their second home game of the season; they beat the Jets back in Week 2.  The Packers have faced a tough schedule so far, and tonight’s game provides a much needed class relief.  Green Bay’s passing offense should put up big numbers in this game, especially against a weak Minnesota secondary.  The Vikings have been carved up in the last two weeks; they’ve allowed 68.4% completions on 7.8 yards per pass attempt and five touchdown passes.  Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has a 9/1 TD/INT ratio this season, so he should have another big game tonight, especially since this game is at home.  Green Bay is the much better team and they are catching Minnesota in a terrible spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Packers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play PACKERS (-).

New England has yet to play a complete games on both sides of the ball this season.  The Patriots are 2-1, but they did not look good last week in their pedestrian 16-9 win over hapless Oakland.  New England also lost their season opener in Miami 33-20, and on the surface, that loss looks worse since Kansas City won 34-15 in Miami last week.  Bettors remember what they’ve seen last, and a blowout win looks much better than a 7-point win over the Raiders.  Add in the common opponent results, and it’s easy to see why the Chiefs look like a live home underdog tonight.  This line is exceptionally short considering the talent difference and huge quarterback edge in favor of New England.      

The Patriots’ offense will have a lot of success on the ground against a banged-up Kansas City defense that is missing both starting linebackers.  The Chiefs can’t stop the run; they’ve given up 347 yards on the ground this season on a whopping 5.5 yards per rush.  New England has the running game to take advantage of that, and success on the ground will only open up the passing game for Tom Brady.  The Chiefs will also be without starting safety Eric Berry (ankle) tonight, and his absence leaves a gapping hole in the middle of the field.  New England always exploits their opponent’s weakness, so we expect the Patriots to gash the Chiefs on the ground and thru the air down the middle of the field.  Kansas City overachieved last season, and they lost 26-10 at home to Tennessee in Week 1.  That loss looks horrible now since the Titans have lost their last three games by a combined score of 100-34.  New England is the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Patriots on Monday night.   

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Dallas will host New Orleans on Sunday night football.  This game features two potent offenses and two defenses that are vulnerable to strong passing attacks.  New Orleans got their first win of the season last week when they beat Minnesota 20-9.  The Saints did not play well on offense as they turned 396 yards of total offense into just 20 points.  They will be more efficient in this game, especially against a weak Dallas defense that is allowing 23 points per game against opponents that only average 17.9 points per game.  The Cowboys have given up 6.3 yards per play this season against the 49ers, Titans, and Rams.  Last week, Dallas gave up 31 points and 448 yards of offense to St. Louis and backup quarterback Austin Davis.     

New Orleans has regressed sharply on defense this season.  The Saints are allowing 24 points per game on 6.0 yards per play while facing rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, and journeymen Matt Cassel and Brian Hoyer.  Dallas has a potent offense that will move the ball consistently on the poor Saints’ defense.  The Cowboys are averaging 25.7 points per game, and they’ve been terrific in their last two games as they’ve been able to run the ball effectively.  DeMarco Murray has rushed for 267 yards in the last two games, and that has opened up the passing game for QB Tony Romo.  We expect both teams to go up and down the field, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Saints and Cowboys on Sunday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia is 3-0, but they could very well be 0-3 on the season.  The Eagles fell behind in all three games before coming back to win.  They trailed Jacksonville 17-0, Indianapolis 20-6, and Washington 17-7.  Philadelphia is the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive games after trailing by double digits.  The fact that they’ve been down to three weak teams is not a good sign at all going forward, and we expect the Eagles good fortune to run out in this game.  This is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Eagles.  Philadelphia is not only coming off the three come from behind wins, but they are also coming off a high-scoring divisional win at home and now must travel across the country to face a good team off back-to-back losses.

San Francisco has played sloppy football over the last two weeks.  After opening their season with a 28-17 win in Dallas, the 49ers have lost back-to-back games.  In their 28-20 home loss to the Bears, San Francisco turned the ball over four times en route to blowing a 20-7 lead.  Last week, the 49ers blew a 14-6 lead in Arizona.  The 49ers return home to their brand new stadium, and after opening the place with an ugly loss, San Francisco will be eager to get their first win on their new field.  The setup for a prime San Francisco performance couldn’t be any better, especially since they’ll be facing a poor and fatigued Philadelphia defense that is allowing 26 points per game.  The Eagles’ secondary has been carved up by Kirk Cousins, Chad Henne, and Andrew Luck to the tune of 865 yards and 8 touchdown passes.  This is a great spot for San Francisco to get a blowout win, so we’ll lay the points with the 49ers on Sunday.  

10* Play 49ERS (-).

Atlanta played one of the best games in recent NFL history last Thursday night.  The Falcons beat Tampa Bay 56-14 after gaining 488 yards with 344 of those yards coming thru the air.  Quarterback Matt Ryan completed 21 of his 24 passes with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Atlanta can’t play any better, and off such a perfect performance, there’s a very good chance the Falcons will regress sharply in this game.  Ryan will be facing a solid Minnesota defense that is giving up just 18.7 points per game this season.  The Vikings have already faced two elite quarterbacks this season, and they held Tom Brady and Drew Brees to just 3 touchdown passes combined.       

Minnesota has lost back-to-back games after opening the season with a solid 34-6 win in St. Louis.  The Vikings were in bad spots for their last two games.  In Week 2, Minnesota had to play just two days after the Adrian Peterson news broke.  Last week, the Vikings had to play in New Orleans against a Saints team that was 0-2 and playing their first home game of the season.  Minnesota also lost QB Matt Cassel early in the game which forced rookie Teddy Bridgewater into action.  Bridgewater will get the start in this game, and with a full week to prepare, we expect a good performance, especially against a soft Atlanta defense that is giving up 24 points per game.  Minnesota is better than their last couple of games, and with Atlanta off a peak performance, we’ll take the points with the Vikings.

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

Tampa Bay was embarrassed last Thursday night in Atlanta.  The Buccaneers trailed 56-0 at one point before scoring a couple of late touchdowns to lose 56-14.  That performance was one of the worst in recent NFL history, but with extra prep time, Tampa Bay will bring their best effort and play much better football, especially with Mike Glennon now at quarterback.  Prior to that humiliating loss, the Buccaneers played two competitive games to open the season; they lost by six points to the Panthers and only lost by two points to the Rams.  Those two teams play a physical style of football unlike the finesse passing attack of Atlanta.  The Bucs match-up much better against those teams, and a team like Pittsburgh because of their style, so this game is closer than public perception.

Pittsburgh comes into this game from the opposite end of the spectrum after the Steelers routed the Panthers 37-19 in Carolina last Sunday night.  These two teams have both played Carolina this season.  The Bucs closed as 5-point favorites while the Steelers closed as 3-point underdogs.  So with lopsided results last week, this line has been super inflated on Pittsburgh as the sports books know one-way money is going to be on the Steelers in this game.  Pittsburgh’s defense still has issues, especially after three more starters got hurt last week.  The Steelers are giving up 24 points per game, and poor stop units make poor favorites, especially when laying a touchdown or more.  With Tampa Bay off a spotlight blowout loss and Pittsburgh off a spotlight blowout win, we’ll take the generous points with the Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Tennessee has not played good football over the last couple of weeks after opening the season with a 26-10 win over Kansas City.  However, the Titans were in a bad spot for their game against the Cowboys as they went from a road underdog win to the role of a home favorite against a team off an ugly loss.  Last week, Tennessee had to play the best team in the league after three weeks, and they were non-competitive in a 33-7 loss in Cincinnati.  The Titans will now play their first divisional game, and since they are familiar with their opponent, we expect Tennessee to be in this game from start to finish.  Charlie Whitehurst is expected to start at quarterback for injured Jake Locker, and Tennessee’s game plan will be to control the ball on the ground and keep Andrew Luck off the field.  The game plan would have been the same with Locker under center, so the quarterback change will not be much of a factor in this game.

Indianapolis comes in off their 44-17 blowout win in Jacksonville last Sunday.  The Colts have dominated the Jaguars over the last few years, so that win wasn’t surprising.  However, Indianapolis played well above their heads in that game, and the Colts are sure to regress off that performance.  After beating the Jaguars by a combined 54 points in two games last season, the Colts only won their next games by 1 and 6 points.  The Colts’ defense is terrible as they are giving up 26 points per game this season, and poor stop units make poor favorites, especially when laying a touchdown or more.  This game will be closer than expected, so we’ll take the points with Tennessee on Sunday afternoon.     

9* Play TITANS (+).