Texas A&M is a perfect 6-0 SU on the season, but the Aggies have been an extremely fortunate team.  They won a pair of overtime games versus Tennessee and UCLA, and another win came against an inferior FCS Prairie View A&M.  They also beat a terrible South Carolina team.  The Aggies are taking a monumental step-up in class against Alabama in this game.  Texas A&M’s offense is averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.8 yards per play, but they’ve put those numbers up against a group of defenses that give up 30.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide defense is only giving up 15 points per game on 4.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 31.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  At home, Alabama is only allowing 5.3 points per game on 3.5 yards per play this year.

Alabama is the best team in the country.  The Crimson Tide are a perfect 7-0 SU while winning by an average of +30.4 points per game.  Alabama is averaging 45.4 points per game on 7.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 28.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Texas A&M’s defense is only giving up 19.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  However, they played a group of terrible offenses that only average 22.9 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  The Aggies’ defense is taking a monumental step-up in offensive class against Alabama, so expect them to struggle mightily in this game.  Texas A&M is giving up 172 rushing yards per game on the road while Alabama’s offense is averaging 266 rushing yards per game on 6.2 yards per rush this season.  This is a terrible matchup for Texas A&M, so we’ll lay the points with Alabama on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

Purdue is 3-3 SU on the season, but they’ve fired head coach Darrell Hazell, and they’ll be led by an interim coach going forward.  The program is in disarray, so it’s hard to imagine they’ll be competitive in this game versus Nebraska.  Purdue’s offense is only averaging 20.5 points per game on 4.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Boilermakers will now face a Nebraska defense that only gives up 18.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Purdue lost 50-7 at Maryland three weeks ago, and Nebraska is a significantly better team, so the Boilermakers will be in for a long afternoon.

Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 6-0 SU and a 4-1-1 ATS record on the season.  The Cornhuskers have won their six games by a combined score of 212-110.  Nebraska is averaging 35.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 30.0 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Purdue’s defense has given up 40.5 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play on the road this season.  Nebraska’s running game averages 221 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush; the Boilermakers give up 357 yards per game on 7.8 yards per rush on the road.  Purdue is just 5-33 SU versus FBS teams the past four seasons.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Cornhuskers on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

North Carolina is 5-2 SU on the season with their two losses coming to Georgia in the season opener and at home versus Virginia Tech.  The Tar Heels last three wins have all come by 7 points or less.  North Carolina won 20-13 as 6-point road underdogs at Miami last week, but now they are laying double digits while playing their second consecutive road game.  In fact, North Carolina will be playing their third road game in the last four weeks, so this is not a good scheduling spot for the Tar Heels.  North Carolina’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a terrible group of defenses that give up 29.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.

Virginia comes into this game with a 2-4 record SU, but a solid 4-2 ATS and they are improving.  The Cavaliers opened the season with three consecutive losses, but have gone 2-1 SU since.  Head coach Bronco Mendenhall is in his first season, and after a rough start, his team is finally comfortable in his system.  Virginia is averaging 33.3 points per game on 6.3 yards per play at home this season.  North Carolina’s defense is giving up 6.1 yards per play on the road this season, so look for a strong offensive performance by the Cavaliers in this game.  Virginia is a competitive team that is on a current 16-0 ATS run when getting +5 points or more.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll back Virginia as a big home underdog on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VIRGINIA (+).

Oregon and California match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  The Ducks are averaging 36.8 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 26.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Oregon will now face a California defense that has been absolutely atrocious this season.  The Golden Bears are allowing 40.0 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that average just 31.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  California will now face an Oregon offense that is averaging +5.5 points and +1.2 yards per play more than the offenses Cal has faced this season.

California also has a potent offense that is averaging 42.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play despite playing defenses that only give up 29.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  California will now face a woeful Oregon defense that is giving up 41.8 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 36.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  This is the highest posted total this season and for good reason.  In fact, the line is not high enough as my power ratings predict 96 total points.  Look for a high-scoring game between Oregon and California on Friday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Chicago comes into this game with a 1-5 SU/ATS record, and the Bears are just as bad as their record indicates.  Chicago is off back-to-back tough losses; they lost 29-23 at Indianapolis after blowing a 4th quarter lead, and last week they lost 17-16 at home to Jacksonville after blowing a fourth quarter lead once again.  Now they must travel on a short week and face a motivated Green Bay team off a home loss.  Chicago’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Bears are only averaging 16.8 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.4 points per game.

Green Bay is 3-2 SU/ATS on the season, but their two losses have come against the Vikings and Cowboys who are a combined 10-1 SU on the season.  The Packers lost 30-16 at home to Dallas last week, so we can expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  Green Bay’s offense has yet to get going this season, but they have faced a strong group of opposing defenses that are only giving up 20.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Packers will now face a Chicago defense that is allowing 27.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a peak performance by Green Bay, so we’ll back the Packers in this home divisional game on Thursday night.

9* Play PACKERS (-).

New York comes into tonight’s game in Arizona with just a 1-4 SU record on the season.  The Jets have played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  New York is only averaging 18.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 19.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Things won’t get any easier for the Jets tonight as they’ll face an Arizona defense that is only giving up 15.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season.  New York will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.

Arizona is only 2-3 SU on the season, but the Cardinals will get quarterback Carson Palmer back on the field tonight, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  Arizona has had to win games with their defense in the absence of Palmer, and the stop unit has been terrific.  Overall, the Cardinals are only allowing 20.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense will have a strong game tonight as they’ll be facing a New York defense that is giving up 28.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Jets pass defense has been horrendous, allowing 72% completions and 8.7 yards per pass in all games (versus opponents that average just 6.9 ypp).  Arizona is better on both sides of the ball, so we’ll back the Cardinals at home on Monday night football.

10* Play CARDINALS (-).

Indianapolis is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Houston.  The Colts played in London two weeks ago, and they returned home to play the Bears last week.  Teams usually have a bye following the long travel to London, but the Colts did not.  Now they will be on the road again after a comeback high-scoring game last week.  Indianapolis beat Chicago 29-23 despite trailing by 4 points with less than 4 minutes to play in that game.  The Colts’ defense is terrible as they are giving up 29.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Houston comes into this game with a 3-2 record, but they’ve lost two of their last three games.  The Texans lost at New England and at Minnesota, so there’s no shame in losing to two of the best teams in the league, especially on the road.  Houston is taking a major step-down in class tonight against Indianapolis, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The Texans’ offense has poor seasonal numbers overall, but those numbers are skewed due to their shutout loss at New England and their 13-point performance in Minnesota last week.  At home, the Texans are averaging 23 points per game, so they should have little trouble scoring on the Colts.  We’ll back Houston in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play TEXANS (-).

Cincinnati and New England will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The Bengals were terrible on offense last week as they only scored 14 points at Dallas.  Off that woeful offensive performance, Cincinnati’s offense is primed for a bounce back scoring performance on a fast track in New England.  Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt despite facing defenses that only give up 21.2 points per game on 7.1 yards per pass attempt.  Dalton will now face a New England secondary that has faced a slew of terrible opposing quarterbacks that cannot throw the football effectively.  The Patriots’ defense has allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempts against offenses that only average 6.3 yards per pass attempt.

New England is 4-1 on the season, including 1-0 with quarterback Tom Brady under center.  Brady played for the first time last week, and he led New England to 33 points on 501 yards of total offense in Cleveland.  Brady will now make his first home appearance of the season, and we expect a duplicate performance this afternoon.  New England’s offense has faced a collection of defenses that only allow 22.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  Cincinnati’s defense is giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play on the road despite playing the Jets, Cowboys, and Steelers which came in a driving rain storm.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Bengals and Patriots on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore comes into this game with a 3-2 record, but the Ravens are much worse than their winning record indicates.  Baltimore opened the season at 3-0, but they won each of those games by 6 points or less.  The Ravens beat the Bills 13-7 at home before winning back-to-back road games at Cleveland (25-20) and at Jacksonville (19-17).  They should have lost both of those games, but they got extremely fortunate and won in the final minutes.  Baltimore’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Ravens are only averaging 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  New York’s defense has been terrific this season; they are giving up just 21.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

New York has had a disappointing season; the Giants come into this game with a 2-3 record.  They won their first two games of the season, but they are currently on a 3-game losing streak.  However, New York played at Minnesota and at Green Bay in back-to-back weeks.  There’s no shame in losing those two games.  New York’s last home game resulted in a 29-27 loss to Washington, so we can expect the Giants to bring their ‘A’ game this afternoon.  New York’s offense has yet to get going this season, but to their defense, they have faced a strong group of opposing defenses that are only giving up 21.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  We expect a peak performance by New York, so we’ll back the Giants in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play GIANTS (-).

Carolina and New Orleans match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Panthers come into this game off a poor offensive performance at home versus Tampa Bay last Monday night; they only scored 14 points despite putting up 414 yards of total offense with backup QB Derek Anderson under center.  Carolina will get Cam Newton back on the field, so the Panthers will bounce back with a much better offensive performance today, especially since they are facing a New Orleans defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Saints are giving up 32.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  

New Orleans’ offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 33 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Drew Brees has completed 65.9% of his passes while averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  Overall, Brees has thrown for 1,268 yards with a 10/3 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Carolina defense that is giving up 27 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 24.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Panthers’ secondary is allowing a woeful 10.2 yards per pass attempt on the road, so Brees will throw the ball all over the field in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Panthers and Saints on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Southern Mississippi is 4-2 SU on the season, but they’ve played six terrible teams.  The Golden Eagles own wins against Kentucky, FCS Savannah State, UTEP, and Rice; two of those games came on their home field.  Last week, Southern Mississippi lost 55-32 at a poor Texas-San Antonio team despite out-gaining them by 557-532 in yardage.  Southern Mississippi’s offense is averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 35 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles will now face a LSU defense that only gives up 14.8 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  That’s -20.2 points per game less, and -1.5 yards per play less than the defenses that Southern Mississippi has faced this season.

LSU comes into this game with a 3-2 SU record, but their two losses came against good teams in Wisconsin and Auburn.  The Tigers won their last home game 42-7 over Missouri, so they come into this game with good momentum.  LSU is averaging 33 points per game on 6.7 yards per play at home this season.  Southern Mississippi’s defense is giving up 27 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  On the road, Southern Mississippi is allowing 32.3 points per game on a whopping 7.9 yards per play.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the LSU on Saturday night.

10* Play LSU (-).

Mississippi is 3-2 SU on the season, and they’ll be playing their first true road game of the year.  The Rebels’ two losses have come against Florida State and Alabama, so there’s no shame in losing to those two teams.  Mississippi also comes into this game off a bye, but considering they won their last two games by a combined score of 93-42, a week off did not necessarily come at a good time.  Mississippi was a 7.5-point home favorite against Arkansas last season, and the Razorbacks won that game after they put-up 605 yards of total offense.  Mississippi is now playing at Arkansas, and they are laying 7.5 points once again, but this time it’s on the road.  This line doesn’t make much sense, and my power ratings say the Rebels should only be a 6-point favorite in this game.  In their lone game away from home on a neutral field against Florida State, the Rebels gave up 45 points on 6.2 yards per play.

Arkansas comes into this game off a 49-30 home loss to Alabama.  The Razorbacks deserved better in that game as they put-up 473 yards of total offense on the Crimson Tide while winning the first down battle 25-16.  Arkansas also converted 50% (8-for-16) on third downs, but five costly turnovers did them in.  Arkansas’ offense has been excellent at home this season where they are averaging 36.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  They will face a Mississippi rush defense that is allowing 215 yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush.  The Razorbacks’ ability to run the ball at home (189 yards on 4.8 yards per rush per game) gives them a nice matchup edge in this game.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Arkansas on Saturday night.

9* Play ARKANSAS (+).

Central Michigan is 4-2 SU on the season, but they could very well be 2-4 instead.  The Chippewas won at Oklahoma State on a fluke play which shouldn’t have counted, and they only beat Ball State by 3 points at home last week.  Central Michigan has also played four of their six games at home, and their two road games resulted in a loss at Virginia and the aforementioned game at Oklahoma State.  The Chippewas’ offense has faced a group of terrible defenses that give up 30.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  While it’s true Northern Illinois’ defense has poor seasonal numbers, do note that they’ve played a collection of offenses that average 35.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Central Michigan’s offense actually has a difficult matchup against the Huskies’ defense in this game.

Northern Illinois comes into this game with a poor 1-5 SU record.  However, the Huskies are a much better team than that record suggests.  Northern Illinois has played four of their six games on the road, and their two home games were against better teams (San Diego State and Western Michigan).  The Huskies also lost two games by 6 points or less.  Northern Illinois’ offense has played a group of defenses that only allow 24.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Huskies will now face a Central Michigan defense that is giving up 38 points per game on 6.6 yards per play on the road this season.  The Huskies’ offense is taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game.  The wrong team is favored, so we’ll back Northern Illinois on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+).

Mississippi State is 2-3 on the season, but this team is much worse than that record indicates.  The Bulldogs’ two wins have come against a terrible South Carolina team, and an inferior Massachusetts team that is relatively new to FBS football.  Mississippi State was unimpressive in those wins; they beat South Carolina 27-14 and only beat Massachusetts 47-35.  The Bulldogs lost at home to South Alabama and Auburn, and they were dominated at LSU where they trailed 23-6 with less than five minutes to play before scoring two backdoor touchdowns to make the final score look respectable at 23-20.  Mississippi State’s offense is only averaging 25.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  They will now face a BYU defense that has given up 25.8 points per game versus offenses that have averaged 29.4 points per game this season. 

BYU comes into this game with just a 3-3 record on the season, but their three losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The Cougars have played a difficult schedule with games against Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo, and Michigan State.  All six of those teams are better than Mississippi State, so BYU is taking a step-down in class tonight.  BYU has a well-balanced offense that averages over 200 yards per game on the ground and thru the air.  Overall, BYU is averaging 28.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Mississippi State’s defense is giving up 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with BYU in this game on Friday night.

10* Play BYU (-).

Appalachian State comes into this game with a 3-2 SU record with their two losses coming against Tennessee and Miami Florida.  If we eliminate those two games, the Mountaineers’ offense has scored an average of 31 points in their other three games versus weaker opponents.  Overall, Appalachian State is only averaging 23.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play, but those numbers are skewed after they only scored a total of 23 points against the Vols and Hurricanes.  Appalachian State will now face a weaker UL Lafayette defense that is giving up 33.6 points per game, so expect a strong performance by the Mountaineers’ offense in this game tonight.

UL Lafayette comes into this game off back-to-back overtime losses at Tulane and at New Mexico State.  But ULL has had extra time to recover from those defeats and prepare for this game, so they’ll be ready for a big effort tonight at home on national TV.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have a capable offense that has scored 28 points or more in each of their past four games (32.0 ppg on average) after only scoring 10 points in their season opener against Boise State.  UL Lafayette will now face an Appalachian State defense that is allowing 29.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between Appalachian State and UL Lafayette on Wednesday night.      

10* Play OVER the total.

New York comes into this game off a terrible performance in Minnesota last week.  The Giants lost that game 24-10, but there’s little shame in having their worst offensive game of the season against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL.  Off that terrible showing, we expect New York to bounce back with a strong effort, especially on the offensive side of the ball.  The Giants’ offense has averaged 6.2 yards per play despite only averaging 18.2 points per game.  New York’s offense has been able to move the ball up and down the field, but they’ve failed to turn that production into points.  Green Bay’s defense is giving up 22.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Giants will take advantage of that mediocre defense tonight.

Green Bay is 2-1 on the season, and the Packers come into this game fresh off a bye.  In their lone home game this season, Green Bay scored 34 points with quarterback Aaron Rodgers throwing four touchdown passes on a terrible Lions secondary.  Rodgers gets another easy matchup tonight against a New York defense that got carved-up by Kirk Cousins two weeks ago.  Overall, Green Bay’s offense is averaging 25.1 points per game versus defenses giving up 21.9 points per game on just 5.4 yards per play.  We expect both offenses to be the best units on the field, so look for a high-scoring game between the Giants and Packers on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Buffalo came thru with a Best Bet winner for us last week in their 16-0 win over the Patriots, but we have no hesitation in playing against the Bills in this game on Sunday afternoon.  Buffalo comes in off back-to-back dominating wins over Arizona and New England, and those wins set them up to regress sharply this afternoon.  Buffalo is on the road for a second consecutive week, but this time they had to make a cross-country trip.  Buffalo’s offense is only averaging 21.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 19.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Points won’t come easy against a Los Angeles defense that only gave up 3 total points to Seattle in their lone home game this season.

Los Angeles got embarrassed 28-0 by San Francisco in their season opener, but they’ve won all three of their games since then.  The Rams will play just their second home game of the season, and they are catching the Bills in a terrible scheduling and situational spot to boot.  Los Angeles’ offense isn’t going to wow anybody, but their opponent today also has a terrible offense.  The Rams win games with their strong defense, and that will be the case once again in this game.  Los Angeles’ defense is only giving up 19 points per game on just 5.3 yards per play.  This game won’t be pretty, but we expect Los Angeles to come out with their fourth straight win on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAMS (+).

Atlanta lost their season opener at home to Tampa Bay, but since then they’ve won three consecutive games with two of those games coming on the road.  The Falcons won all three games in high-scoring shootouts, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.  Atlanta dominated their last two games; they beat New Orleans 45-32 and Carolina 48-33.  Neither one of those games was actually close, and that sets Atlanta up to regress this afternoon, especially since they are taking a major step-up in defensive class against Denver.  The Falcons’ offense is averaging 38 points per game on a whopping 7.8 yards per play.  However, they’ve faced four awful defenses that are giving up 30.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Atlanta will now face a Denver defense that allows just 16 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  That’s -14.1 points and -1.7 yards per play less than the defenses Atlanta has faced so far this season.

Denver is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the season.  The Broncos have dominated three of their four opponents while winning by a combined score of 111-64.  Denver’s offense is averaging 27.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  We expect a strong offensive performance in this game since the Broncos will be facing an Atlanta defense that is giving up 31 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only average 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver will start Paxton Lynch at quarterback after Trevor Siemian got hurt last week.  But that’s of little concern since we expect the Broncos’ stout defense to control this game from start to finish.  Lynch played the majority of the game last week at Tampa Bay and the rookie played well, averaging 7.1 yards per pass with a 1/0 TD/INT ratio and a 94.1 QB rating.  We’ll lay the points with Denver on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

Syracuse is 2-3 SU on the season, but in their defense, they have played a tough schedule.  The Orange faced three strong teams in Louisville, South Florida, and Notre Dame.  Syracuse lost all three of those games by 17 points; they were non-competitive in those defeats.  So even though it’s true they’ve played a brutal schedule, the blowout results show that Syracuse just isn’t a good team.  The Orange offense is averaging 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that allow an average of 29.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Syracuse will now face a Wake Forest defense that allows just 19.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  That’s -9.3 points per game and -0.3 yards per play less than the defenses Syracuse has faced.

Wake Forest comes into this game with a 4-1 SU record on the season despite playing three of their five games on the road.  The Demon Deacons returned 16 players from last year’s team, and in their third year under head coach Dave Clawson, the hot start is not a surprise.  Wake Forest plays ball control offense; they average 42.6 rushes per game while running for 173.8 yards per game.  The Demon Deacons’ ability to run the ball gives them a nice matchup edge in this game, especially since the Orange defense gives up 205 yards per game on 5.4 yards per rush, and weather conditions might be wet.  Overall, the Syracuse defense allows 37.6 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with Wake Forest in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play WAKE FOREST (-).

Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 3-1 SU record, but their only loss was to a very good Tennessee team.  The Hokies also own a huge scheduling edge over North Carolina.  Virginia Tech comes in off a bye while the Tar Heels are off two consecutive emotional games.  The Hokies have won their three games by a combined score of 139-75.  Virginia Tech is averaging 40.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 26.1 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  North Carolina’s defense is giving up 31 points per game while allowing their opponents to gain 6.1 yards per play.  Virginia Tech’s running game averages 195.5 yards per game; the Tar Heels are giving up 236.8 yards per game on 5.0 yards per game.  The Hokies will have a lot of success running the ball on North Carolina in this game, especially in rainy conditions.

North Carolina is 4-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming to Georgia in the season opener.  However, the Tar Heels are off back-to-back come from behind wins over Pittsburgh and Florida State, and those wins actually put them in a terrible situational spot for this game.  North Carolina’s last two wins were also high-scoring shootouts which is also a negative factor; the Tar Heels beat Pittsburgh 37-36 and Florida State 37-35.  North Carolina’s offense has faced a group of defenses that give up 36.4 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  The Tar Heels will now face a Virginia Tech defense that only gives up 18.7 points per game on 4.2 yards per play.  That’s -17.7 points per game less, and a whopping -2.7 yards per play less than the defenses that North Carolina has faced this season.  We’ll back Virginia Tech on Saturday afternoon, and adverse weather conditions will further help the Hokies who have the better defense and running game.

10* Play VIRGINIA TECH.

Indiana is 3-1, and the Hoosiers come off their best game of the season.  Indiana beat Michigan State 24-21 at home in overtime last week, but that win isn’t as good as it looks.  The Spartans are clearly down a few notches this season, and Indiana was a 5-point home underdog in that game.  Indiana is also on the road for the first time in five weeks, and the matchup against Ohio State is just bad.  Indiana’s offense is only averaging 29 points per game versus defenses that allow 26 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Aside from Michigan State last week, Indiana’s opponents were Florida International, Ball State, and Wake Forest.  The Hoosiers will now face an Ohio State defense that only gives up 9.2 points per game on 3.6 yards per play.  That’s 16.8 points per game less, and 2.1 yards per play less than the defenses that Indiana has faced this season.

Ohio State comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS record on the season.  The Buckeyes have won their four games by a combined score of 228-37.  Ohio State is averaging 57 points per game on 7.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 36.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Indiana’s defense has given up 21.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  However, they’ve played a horrendous group of offenses that only average 23.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Ohio State’s running game averages 332 yards per game on 6.5 yards per rush; Indiana has no chance at stopping the run.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Western Kentucky’s offense has picked-up right where they left off from last season.  The Hilltoppers have scored 30 points or more in four of their five games this season; they only scored 10 points against Alabama.  Overall, Western Kentucky is averaging 33.4 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play.  The Hilltoppers have put those numbers up against a collection of defenses that allow 31 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Western Kentucky’s defense has decent seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 21 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  The Hilltoppers are taking a major step-up in offensive class against Louisiana Tech’s offense in this game.         

Louisiana Tech has scored 28 points or more in four of their five games.  The Bulldogs are averaging 36 points per game on 7.3 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech put those numbers up against a group of defenses that allow 34.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech’s offense averages 15 points per game and 2.6 yards per play more than the offenses Western Kentucky has faced this season.  The Bulldogs’ defense is allowing 29.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play, so Western Kentucky will score their share of points as well.  We expect a high-scoring game between Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech on Thursday night.      

10* Play OVER the total.

New York opened the season with back-to-back wins before losing at home last week to Washington.  The Giants have faced three poor defensive teams, but tonight they will face one of the best defenses in the NFL.  New York has played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  The Giants are only averaging 21 points per game despite playing against defenses that allow 26.6 points per game.  Minnesota’s defense only gives up 13.3 points per game on 4.8 yards per play, so New York will have a difficult time moving the ball with consistency in this game, especially since the Giants will be without their top two running backs.

Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on the season despite playing without quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  The Vikings are winning with their stout defense, and nothing will change tonight against the Giants.  Minnesota possesses a defense that is allowing -13.3 points per game less, and a whopping -1.6 yards per play less than the defenses New York has faced so far this season.  Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford has played well in Bridgewater’s place, and he should have another productive game tonight.  The Vikings' new home field is extremely loud and further enhances Minnesota's defensive edge, so we’ll back the Vikings on Monday night.

10* Play VIKINGS (-).

Kansas City and Pittsburgh both come into this game with 2-1 records, but last week had the teams with opposite outcomes.  The Chiefs beat the Jets 24-3 at home while the Steelers lost 34-3 in Philadelphia.  Tonight’s game will have the Chiefs’ defense taking a major step back as the Steelers’ offense will bounce back with a strong performance.  Kansas City’s defensive numbers appear to be good; they are only giving up 16.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  However, the opposing offenses have been extremely weak while only averaging 21.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face a potent Pittsburgh offense off a terrible performance, so expect the Chiefs’ worst defensive game of the season.

Pittsburgh has played just one home game so far, and that came in a driving rainstorm against divisional rival Cincinnati.  The Steelers still scored 24 points in that game.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been highly explosive at home, especially quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.  He owns an incredible 42/13 touchdown/interception ratio while averaging 342 passing yards per game at home over the last three seasons.  Kansas City’s defense was shredded by Philip Rivers in the season opener, and Roethlisberger will do the same tonight.  Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing 6.5 yards per play, so Kansas City’s offense will also score their share of points.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Chiefs and Steelers on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Denver is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Tampa Bay.  The Broncos come in off a big win in Cincinnati as 3.5-point underdogs last Sunday.  Denver will now play back-to-back road games while making their second straight trip to the East Coast.  The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 on the season, but they’ve been underdogs in two of those games, including their home opener against Carolina.  The Broncos are laying points in a prime letdown spot, and they are doing so against a team they matchup poorly against.  Tampa Bay’s offensive strength is running the football while Denver’s defensive weakness is stopping the run.  The Broncos have allowed 127.7 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush versus offenses that only run for 104.3 yards per game on 3.9 yards per rush.  That statistic is even worse than it appears since Denver held significant leads in two of their three games this season.  

Tampa bay was expected to have a breakout season, but the Buccaneers come into this game with a 1-2 record.  Tampa Bay dominated their season opener in Atlanta (31-24 win), but their last two games have been awful.  The Buccaneers got blown out by 33 points (40-7) in Arizona, and last week lost a high-scoring shootout 37-32 at home to Los Angeles.  Off those back-to-back ugly performances, we expect Tampa Bay to bring their ‘A’ game against the Broncos.  The Buccaneers are catching Denver at the perfect time, and they own a big scheduling advantage since they are at home for a second consecutive week.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, so we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon. 

10* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Carolina comes into this game off a terrible performance at home against Minnesota last week.  The Panthers lost that game 22-10, but there’s little shame in having a poor offensive game against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL.  Off that terrible showing, we expect Carolina to bounce back with a strong effort, especially since they’ll be taking a major step-down in class against Atlanta.  The Panther’s offense has averaged 25.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus a collection of defenses that are only allowing 20 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Carolina’s defense is giving up 23.3 points per game on just 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.6 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Those numbers show that Carolina has been an above average team on both sides of the ball so far this season.

Atlanta has had a surprising winning season so far; the Falcons were predicted to be a mediocre team once again in 2016.  The Falcons are 2-1 on the season, and they come into this game off their best effort to date, a 45-32 victory in New Orleans last Monday night.  Atlanta now returns home on a short week while taking a major step-up in class.  The Falcons’ offense is averaging 34.7 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play.  However, they’ve faced three awful defenses that are giving up 30.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  Atlanta will face a Carolina defense that allows 7.4 points and 1.9 yards per play less than the defenses the Falcons have faced.  Atlanta’s defense is terrible as they’ve allowed their opponents to average 30.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Carolina is the superior team, so we’ll back the Panthers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play PANTHERS (-).

Buffalo is a disappointing 1-2 on the season, but the Bills do have some momentum after waxing Arizona 33-18 last Sunday.  Buffalo’s two losses only came by 6 points apiece, so they have yet to lose by more than the posted pointspread on this game.  The Bills have played above average football on the offensive side of the ball this season.  Buffalo is averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 20.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Bills average 119.7 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush; their opponents only give up 96.9 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush.  Buffalo’s ability to run the ball successfully will have a major impact on this game as New England’s defense has allowed a mediocre slate of rushing offenses that only average 3.8 yards per rush to average 4.4 yards per rush.      

New England has a perfect 3-0 record, and the odds of them going 4-0 without quarterback Tom Brady would have been astronomical if a proposition was listed to bet prior to the season.  The Patriots have cruised to easy wins in their last two games despite playing two young and inexperienced quarterbacks.  Jimmy Garoppolo led the Patriots out to a 24-0 lead against Miami before getting hurt two weeks ago.  Rookie Jacoby Brissett replaced the injured Garoppolo, and finished the game against the Dolphins before leading New England to a 27-0 win over the Texans the following Thursday night.  Off those back-to-back dominating performances, New England will now lay a full touchdown into a division opponent in a game where they are highly unlikely to play their best.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (+).

Kentucky has been a disappointing team under head coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats are just 14-27 SU in his three years, including 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) so far this season.  Their lone wins have come against an inferior New Mexico State team, and a terrible South Carolina team.  Kentucky was dominated by Southern Mississippi and Florida with the latter being a 45-7 blowout loss on the road.  The Wildcats will now play just their second road game of the season, and this time it will come against the best team in the nation.  Kentucky’s offense has averaged only 12 points in their two SEC games, so it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats scoring many points on Alabama’s strong defense.  The Crimson Tide is only allowing 14.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  At home, Alabama is only permitting 5 points per game on 3.8 yards per play.

Alabama is the best team in the country.  The Crimson Tide are a perfect 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) while winning by an average of +31.8 points per game.  Alabama is averaging 46.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 29.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Kentucky’s defense is allowing 35.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play despite playing offenses that only average 28.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Wildcats’ defense is taking a monumental step-up in offensive class against Alabama, so expect them to struggle mightily in this game.  Kentucky is giving up 205 rushing yards per game while Alabama’s offense is averaging 246 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush.  Alabama has scored at least 48 points or more in three of their four games this season, including an easy 48-0 home win last week.  This game is a complete mismatch and a terrible matchup for Kentucky, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide on Saturday night. 

9* Play ALABAMA (-).

Oklahoma has once again failed to live up to their preseason hype.  The Sooners are just 1-2 SU (0-3 ATS) on the season with losses to Houston and Ohio State.  There is no shame in losing to those two teams, but Oklahoma was actually dominated by both of those opponents.  The Sooners do come into this game off a bye, but even so, they are laying over a field goal which means there’s some good value on TCU as a home underdog.  The Sooners only won 30-29 at home versus TCU last season despite putting-up 536 yards of total offense.  TCU’s defense is significantly better this year as they are only giving up 26.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average of 28.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

TCU should be 4-0 SU on the season, but they gifted Arkansas a win in overtime back in Week 2.  The Horned Frogs come off their best game of the season, a 33-3 blowout win at SMU last Friday night.  TCU has a lot of momentum coming into this game while Oklahoma has to find their rhythm off a week of rest.  TCU’s offense has been excellent this season as they are averaging 42.7 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  They will face an Oklahoma defense that is allowing 31.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Horned Frogs’ ability to run the ball (196 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush) gives them a nice matchup edge in this game.  TCU won straight-up as a 3-point home underdog two years ago versus the Sooners, and we expect another close game throughout today, so we’ll take the points with the Horned Frogs on Saturday.

9* Play TCU (+).

Illinois is 1-2 SU/ATS on the season with their lone win coming over FCS Murray State.  The Illini’s two losses have come by 25 points (48-23) to North Carolina, and by 24 points (34-10) to Western Michigan.  All of their games have come at home, so they will be playing their first road game of the season.  While it’s true they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game, the matchup against Nebraska is just bad.  Illinois’ offense is only averaging 28.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 34.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  The Illini will now face a Nebraska defense that only gives up 18 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  That’s -16.3 points per game less, and -1.0 yards per play less than the defenses that Illinois has faced so far this year.

Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS record on the season.  The Cornhuskers have won their four games by a combined score of 154-72.  Nebraska is averaging 38.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 29.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Illinois defense has given up 28.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus a mediocre group of offenses that only average 29.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Nebraska’s running game averages 242.5 yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush; the Illini give up 158 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush.  Nebraska is 2-0 SU/ATS as a double-digit favorite this year, winning those two games by 33 and 35 point margins.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Cornhuskers on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Stanford comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record, and all three victories can be considered quality wins.  The Cardinal beat Kansas State, USC, and UCLA.  And as you will see below, their opponent tonight has played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Stanford’s defense is playing excellent football this year.  The Cardinal only give up 12.0 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Stanford plays ball control offense; they average 38 rushes per game while running for 202.3 yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush.  Washington’s defense has given up 145.5 rushing yards per game to inferior opponents, including 308 rushing yards (7.2 ypr) at Arizona last week, so Stanford’s ability to run the ball will be the deciding factor in this game.

Washington is 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) on the season with their last win being a 45-38 overtime win at Arizona as a 16-point road favorite.  The Huskies are certainly a talented team, but they’ve played nothing in terms of competition as their other wins have come against Rutgers, Idaho, and FCS Portland State.  Washington’s offense is averaging 45.7 points per game on 7.1 yards per play, but they’ve faced a group of terrible defenses that allow an average of 36.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Huskies will now face a Stanford defense that allows -24.4 points and -1.1 yards per rush less per game than the defenses Washington has faced so far this year.  Stanford is 2-0 SU versus the Washington the past two years as an 8-point road favorite and 14.5-point home favorite.  This line has now be adjusted 11.5 net points in the opposite direction.  The better team is the underdog and this should be a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Stanford on Friday night. 

10* Play STANFORD (+).

Miami and Cincinnati both come into this game with 1-2 SU records with Miami’s win coming in their last game while Cincinnati’s win came in their season opener.  Miami has played in three wild games; they lost 12-10 in Seattle with just 31 seconds left to play in their season opener.  They trailed 24-0 in the first half in New England before rallying back and losing 31-24.  Last week, the Dolphins led 24-13 in the fourth quarter at home versus the Browns, but then needed overtime to win 30-24.  Those are three consecutive draining games, and Miami must now travel on short rest (4 days) and play their third road game in just four weeks.  This is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Dolphins tonight.

Cincinnati was fortunate to beat the Jets 23-22 in their first game of the season, and since then, they’ve been non-competitive in losses to the Steelers and Broncos.  Cincinnati could very well be 0-3 right now.  However, the Bengals’ offense has been able to move the ball despite only averaging 18.7 points per game.  Cincinnati is averaging 6.2 yards per play while the Dolphins defense has allowed 5.7 yards per play versus mediocre offenses that have been averaging just 5.8 yards per play.  The Bengals will likely have their best offensive game to date, and they hold a situational edge at home tonight on the short week, so we’ll lay the points with Cincinnati in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Atlanta comes into this game with a 1-1 SU/ATS after winning 35-28 in Oakland last Sunday.  That win looks even better now considering the Raiders are 2-0 SU in their other games, including a win at New Orleans.  The Falcons’ offense has been tremendous in their two games.  Atlanta is averaging 29.5 points per game on an incredible 7.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 6.8 yards per play.  The Falcons will face a New Orleans defense that has given up 25.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play against offenses that only average 23.8 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

New Orleans is desperate at 0-2 SU on the season.  The Saints lost at home to Oakland in their season opener, and lost last week in New York against the Giants.  While the Saints will likely come with a spirited effort, that may not be enough in what’s expected to be a high-scoring shootout (O/U line is 53.5).  New Orleans has no running game whatsoever; the Saints are only averaging 64.5 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush.  They are a one-dimensional team to the pass, but that’s not good when facing an opposing offense that can move the ball on the ground and thru the air.  We’ll back Atlanta in this game on Monday night.

10* Play FALCONS (+).

The Chicago Bears slogged thru a miserable 6-10 season last year, and they’ve picked-up right where they left off.  Chicago is 0-2 on the season after losses to the Texans and Eagles with the latter being an embarrassing effort on Monday night.  Quarterback Jay Cutler is out after hurting his thumb, but truth be told, that’s a positive thing for Chicago’s offense.  Brian Hoyer plays with much more gusto and confidence than Cutler, and we expect a surprisingly strong offensive game from the Bears tonight.  Chicago will face a Dallas defense that is allowing 21.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus offenses that only average 18.8 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.

Dallas is 1-1 on the season under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott.  He was the talk of the preseason, and so far so good in the regular season.  Prescott will look like he did in the preseason as he’ll be facing a Chicago defense that is decimated with injuries.  The Bears will be without five defensive starters tonight after they all got hurt in the last game.  Prescott dominated second unit defenses in the preseason, and that’s essentially what he’s facing tonight.  Overall, the Bears have given up 26 points per game despite playing a pair of offenses that only average 21.5 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Bears and Cowboys on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore comes into this game in Jacksonville with a perfect 2-0 record, but they’ve been less than impressive in those wins.  The Ravens beat Buffalo 13-7 at home in their season opener.  The fact that Baltimore only scored 13 points after seeing the Bills give up 37 points at home to the Jets is a negative sign for the Ravens.  Last week, Baltimore trailed 20-0 in Cleveland before rallying back for a 25-20 win.  The Ravens have played two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they’ve looked terrible in both games.  And the on-field numbers back that assessment up.  Baltimore’s offense is only averaging 19 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 26 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Ravens simply have no business laying points on the road right now.

Jacksonville is a disappointing 0-2 on the season; the Jaguars were slated to be a much better team in 2016.  However, the winless record can be excused as Jacksonville faced two good teams so far in the Packers and Chargers.  There’s no shame in losing those two games, and since they come into this game desperate for a win, we expect Jacksonville’s best effort this afternoon.  The Jaguars have a dynamic offense that has averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 5.8 yards per play this season.  That means Baltimore’s defense will be taking a major step-up in offensive class after facing the inept offenses of the Bills and Browns.  Baltimore is not as good as their 2-0 record indicates while Jacksonville is much better than their 0-2 record indicates, so we’ll take the points with the undervalued home underdog on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play JAGUARS (+).

Washington has some major holes on the defensive side of the ball.  The Redskins defense was dreadful last season as they gave up 24 points and 379 yards per game.  On the road last season, Washington gave up 21 points or more in all eight of their games while giving up an average of 28.8 points per game.  The Redskins gave up 32 points to the Giants in New York last season.  In two games so far this season, Washington has given up 38 points to Pittsburgh and 27 points to Dallas.  And both of those games were at home.  Overall, Washington is allowing 32.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 27 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

New York is 2-0 on the season after squeaking out close wins over the Cowboys and Saints.  The Giants’ offense has yet to put things together while scoring just 20 and 16 points in their two games.  However, we expect New York’s potent offense to breakout in a major way this afternoon against the pathetic Washington defense.  Quarterback Eli manning is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt this season, and he’ll be throwing against a Redskins defense that is allowing a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Giants offense will have little resistance, and we certainly expect them to easily eclipse 28 points or more in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Redskins on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma State is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game at Baylor on Saturday night.  The Cowboys come into this game with a 2-1 SU record, but they could very well be 3-0 on the season.  Oklahoma State opened with an easy 61-7 romp over FCS Southeastern Louisiana, and then they lost on a controversial last play to Central Michigan; the play never should have counted.  Oklahoma State was supposed to be flat last week off that disappointing loss, but the Cowboys out-lasted Pittsburgh in a 45-38 shootout.  The Cowboys led by 14 points twice in that game, but it was tied when Oklahoma State scored the game-winning touchdown with just 1:35 left to play in the game.  That’s back-to-back emotionally draining games for Oklahoma State, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll have much in reserve for this game.  The Cowboys will also be making their first road trip of the season, so that is another negative factor working against them.

Baylor’s summer distraction of losing head coach Art Briles due to sanctions from inappropriate actions have yet to be an issue.  The Bears are 3-0 SU on the season while out-scoring their inferior opposition by a combined score of 133-20.  Baylor is averaging 44.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 25 points per game on 5.4 yards per play, but their opponents have only averaged 28 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Cowboys’ defense is taking a monumental step-up in offensive class against Baylor, so expect them to struggle mightily in this game.  Oklahoma State gave up 290 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per rush last week.  Baylor’s offense is running for 282 yards per game on 5.6 yards per rush, so expect them to control this game on the ground.  The Bears have out-rushed the Cowboys 304-8 and 317-116 the past two years, winning by +31 points combined. This is simply a terrible spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma State, so we’ll lay the points with the Bears on Saturday night. 

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

Wake Forest comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 SU record, including a solid 24-14 win at Duke two weeks ago.  The Demon Deacons have a pretty good defensive team that returned seven starters from last year when they held opponents to just 24.6 points on 364 yards per game.  In three games so far this season, Wake Forest is only giving up 12.7 points per game on 3.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.7 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.  Overall, Wake Forest returned 16 players from last year’s team, and they are in the third year under head coach Dave Clawson.  Wake Forest plays ball control offense; they average 47.3 rushes per game while running for 206.7 yards per game.  Quarterback Kendall Hinton will not play after getting hurt last week, but John Wolford has started 22 games for Wake Forest over the last two seasons, so he has plenty of experience.  The Demon Deacons’ ability to run the ball gives them a nice matchup edge in this game.

Indiana is 2-0 SU on the season, and they come into this game off a bye.  But getting a week of rest this early in the season for a timing offense is not a good thing, especially since they are playing a good defensive team.  The Hoosiers won 31-24 at Wake Forest last season as a +3.5 point underdog, but now they are laying -7.5 points into a team that is significantly better this season.  Indiana’s offense is averaging 32 points per game on 6.2 yards per play, but they faced a pair of defenses that allow an average of 26.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Hoosiers will now face a Wake Forest defense that allows -14.1 points and -1.7 yards per rush less per game than the defenses Indiana has faced.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Wake Forest on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play WAKE FOREST (+).

East Carolina is 2-1 SU on the season, but they’ve played three mediocre teams.  The Pirates own wins against FCS Western Carolina and North Carolina State; both of those games came on their home field.  Last week, East Carolina lost 20-15 at a terrible South Carolina team despite out-gaining them by 207 yards (519-312).  East Carolina’s offense is averaging 33.3 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 30.8 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  The Pirates will now face a Virginia Tech defense that only gives up 19.3 points per game on 3.3 yards per play.  That’s -14 points per game less, and a whopping -3.5 yards per play less than the defenses that East Carolina has faced so far this season.

Virginia Tech also comes into this game with a 2-1 SU record, but their loss was against a good Tennessee team.  The Hokies have won their two home games by a combined score of 85-13.  Virginia Tech is averaging 36.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 25.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  East Carolina’s defense has only given up 19 points per game, but they have allowed their opponents to gain 6.2 yards per play.  Those numbers do not line up, and that means the Pirates have been extremely lucky in the points against department.  Virginia Tech’s running game averages 205 yards per game; the Pirates give up 160 yards per game on 5.1 yards per game.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Hokies at home on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (-).

This is a tough scheduling spot for Clemson as they must travel and prepare for Georgia Tech's option attack on a short week (4 days).  The Tigers also have a huge look-ahead game on deck next week versus Louisville.  Clemson is 3-0 SU on the season, but only 1-2 ATS and they’ve only played one ‘real’ opponent so far.  The Tigers struggled mightily at Auburn in their season opener; they won that game 19-13.  Their last two games were against inferior opponents (Troy and FCS South Carolina State); they won those games by a combined score of 89-24.  However, they only beat Troy 30-24 at home, so that indicates that this Clemson team is down a few notches from last year’s squad.  Clemson’s offense is averaging 36 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that allow 32.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Tigers will face a Georgia Tech defense that only gives up 10.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  That’s -25.7 points per game less, and -0.5 yards per play less than the defenses Clemson has faced so far this season.  If we only use Georgia Tech’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for Clemson.  The Yellow Jackets have allowed just 8.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play at home.

Georgia Tech also comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 SU record.  The Yellow Jackets have won their two home games by a combined score of 73-17, including an impressive 38-7 win versus Vanderbilt last week.  Georgia Tech is averaging 30 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that give up only 28.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Clemson has good defensive numbers, but they faced a trio of offenses that only average 24.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Georgia Tech’s running game averages 258 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush, and double digit underdogs that can run the ball well have been long-term spread winners in college football.  The Yellow Jackets won outright 28-6 as a home underdog versus Clemson two years ago with a 251-125 rushing edge.  This game should be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Georgia Tech on Thursday night.

10* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Philadelphia won their season opener in impressive fashion under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.  The Eagles beat the Browns 29-10 after out-gaining them 403-288.  Wentz completed 22 passes for 278 yards with 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  But that was just one game at home against a poor Cleveland team that is now 0-2 after losing at home to the Ravens yesterday.  Philadelphia will now travel and play at Chicago with Wentz making his first road start in the NFL.  Tonight’s game will present a much stiffer challenge for Wentz and the entire Eagles offense as Chicago’s defense is significantly better than Cleveland’s defense.

Chicago lost their season opener 23-14 in Houston.  That loss doesn’t look so bad now after the Texans came back and shutdown the Chiefs in a 19-12 win yesterday.  The Bears actually led that game 14-10 at the half before completely falling apart in the third and fourth quarters.  As alluded to above, Chicago’s defense played a fantastic game as they held the Texans to just 344 yards of total offense on just 4.9 yards per play.  To compare, Philadelphia’s offense faced a Cleveland defense that allowed 5.5 yards per play.  Chicago is undervalued while Philadelphia is overvalued simply due to last week’s results, so we’ll back the Bears in this game on Monday night. 

9* Play BEARS (-).

Green Bay escaped Jacksonville with a fortunate 27-23 win last week.  The Packers were out-yarded 348-294 while also losing the first down battle 20-18.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 58.8% (20-34) of his passes for 199 yards on just 5.9 yards per pass attempt.  And that was against a mediocre Jaguars defense.  Now Green Bay will play on the road for the second consecutive week while taking a monumental step-up in defensive class.  Minnesota has one of the best defenses in the league, and it’s likely Green Bay will struggle on offense for the second consecutive game.

Minnesota also got a fortunate win last week when they beat the Titans 25-16.  However, the Vikings were on the road, and playing their first game without quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  They had an extremely vanilla offensive game plan in hopes of just getting in and out with a win.  It worked, but tonight we expect to see a much different Minnesota offense with Sam Bradford under center for the first time.  The Vikings will still lean heavily on Adrian Peterson, but with Minnesota opening their new stadium on national TV, we expect a peak performance by the home team on Sunday night.

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

Tennessee’s offense played much better than it appears on paper.  The Titans only scored 16 points in a home loss to the Vikings, but they led 10-0, and started to play conservatively.  They became predictable, and the strong Minnesota defense shut them down after that.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota then threw a 77-yard pick-6, and the offense lost two fumbles with one being returned for a touchdown in the second half.  That sequence of events turned the whole game around, and it prevented Tennessee’s offense from scoring more points.  The Titans still averaged 5.0 yards per play, and quarterback Mario Mariota completed 25 passes for 271 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

Detroit won 39-35 in a high-scoring shootout in Indianapolis last Sunday.  The Lions offense was terrific as they racked up 448 yards of total offense while averaging a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent as he completed 79.5% (31-39) of his passes for 332 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Stafford averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt while earning a 128.6 quarterback rating; the second best of Week 1.  However, the Lions’ defense also gave up 35 points on 450 yards of total offense.  Their secondary was carved-up by Andrew Luck; he threw for 368 passing yards with 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Titans and Lions on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Tennessee lost 25-16 at home to the Vikings in their season opener last week.  The Titans played much better than it appears on paper.  Tennessee built a 10-0 lead against Minnesota, and at that point, the Titans offense started to play conservatively.  They became predictable, and the strong Minnesota defense shut them down after that.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota then threw a 77-yard pick-6, and the offense lost two fumbles with one being returned for a touchdown in the second half.  That sequence of events turned the whole game around, and it prevented Tennessee’s offense from scoring more points while turning this game into a misleading final score.  In reality, the Titans defense held Minnesota’s offense to just 11 points on 301 yards of total offense.

Detroit won 39-35 in a high-scoring shootout in Indianapolis last Sunday.  The Lions offense was terrific as they racked up 448 yards of total offense while averaging a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent as he completed 79.5% (31-39) of his passes for 332 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Stafford averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt while earning a 128.6 quarterback rating; the second best of Week 1.  However, the Lions’ defense also gave up 35 points on 450 yards of total offense.  Their secondary was carved-up by Andrew Luck; he threw for 368 passing yards with 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt.  Detroit’s defense was terrible, and we expect Mariota and the Titans offense to have a lot of success as well.  Last week’s results creates a lot of value on the underdog, so we’ll take Tennessee plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play TITANS (+).

UCLA had a lot of hype heading into last season.  The Bruins had 16 returning starters from a team that won 20 games over the previous two years.  Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen was said to be a can’t miss NFL prospect as well.  UCLA failed to live up to their lofty expectations after going just 8-5, including a physical beat down by Nebraska in their bowl game.  Things were quieter heading into 2016, but UCLA was still the preseason favorites to win the Pac 12 South.  The Bruins lost their season opener in overtime at Texas A&M before beating UNLV at home last week.  UCLA failed to cover the pointspread in both of those games, and in fact, UCLA is on a 1-5 ATS slide dating back to last season.  UCLA’s run defense has been poor so far; they’ve allowed 189 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.  That’s a major issue coming into this game against a BYU team that possesses a terrific running game behind a solid offensive line that also features a dual threat quarterback.

BYU comes into this game with a 1-1 record after playing a pair of close, defensive scrums.  The Cougars beat Arizona 18-16 on a neutral field, and they lost 20-19 on the road to their in-state rival Utah last week.  Off that loss, BYU will be primed for a big effort in their home opener, especially after their close loss at UCLA last season.  The Cougars lost 24-23 after putting up 405 yards of total offense on the Bruins.  BYU’s rushing offense has been impressive against two pretty good defensive fronts so far this season.  The Cougars have averaged 178 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush versus opponents that only give up 133 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush.  BYU will have success moving the ball on the ground against UCLA’s defense.  My power ratings make BYU a 2-point favorite, so there’s excellent value in taking the Cougars as a home underdog in this game.

9* Play BYU (+).

Mississippi State figured to regress sharply this season after losing eleven starters, including quarterback Dak Prescott to the NFL.  The Bulldogs lost their season opener at home versus South Alabama as a 28-point favorite before bouncing back with a ho-hum 27-14 home win over a terrible South Carolina team last week.  We won a Best Bet selection on Mississippi State in that game, but we have no hesitation in playing against them this week.  The Bulldogs will be playing their first road game of the season, and sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald will be making his first collegiate road start in one of the toughest venues in all of college football.  Mississippi State needs to run the ball to be effective, but they have a very small chance of doing so successfully against a strong LSU defensive line.  This game will rely on Fitzgerald’s arm, but there’s little reason to expect him having any success against the Tigers’ stout defense.

LSU has yet to play their best football this season.  They lost their season opener against Wisconsin, and last week they beat Jacksonville State 34-13.  But there are reasons to expect LSU’s ‘A’ game on Saturday night.  The Tigers played without their best running back, Leonard Fournette, last week because of an injury.  But all reports indicate he’ll be back to full strength for this game.  LSU also got little production out of quarterback Brandon Harris, so head coach Les Miles will start Danny Etling who replaced Harris last week.  Scouts are extremely high on Etling’s abilities, and most say he’ll be a NFL quarterback.  LSU has exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and despite their sluggish play so far this season, they are a very good team.  The Tigers are primed for a peak performance, so we’ll lay the points with LSU at home on Saturday night. 

10* Play LSU (-).

UL Monroe went just 2-11 SU last season, and with only eleven starters returning, 2016 projects to be another long year.  The Warhawks come into this game with a 1-1 SU record; they beat FCS Southern at home, and last week they got blasted 59-17 at Oklahoma.  The Warhawks took a physical beating in that game as they gave up a whopping 640 yards of total offense, including 288 yards on the ground.  UL Monroe allowed Oklahoma to run for 6.3 yards per rush, and they allowed 239 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per rush versus Southern.  It’s pretty clear that the Warhawks have an abysmal rush defense after giving up a total of 527 yards on the ground in just two games.  That spells trouble against a Georgia Southern offense that runs the ball on just about every play.  In last year’s 51-31 home loss to the Eagles, UL Monroe gave up 455 rushing yards on 67 carries.

Georgia Southern has a winning program, and in fact, the Eagles have won nine games or more in five of the last six years.  They went 7-4 SU the lone year they failed to reach the 9-win mark.  The Eagles are already 2-0 SU this season after winning their first two games by a combined score of 78-9.  Georgia Southern runs the triple-option offense, and it’s extremely difficult to stop for inexperienced defenses.  The Eagles have averaged 324 yards or more on the ground per game in each of the last five seasons.  They’ve also averaged 5.8 yards per rush during that span; they averaged a whopping 6.8 yards per rush against UL Monroe last year.  This game is a compete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Georgia Southern on Saturday night.

9* Play GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-).

Oregon comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record, but they are 0-2 ATS, and that’s a negative indicator.  The Ducks played two inferior opponents on their strong home field, and they were unable to win either game by a significant margin.  Oregon gave up 26 and 28 points in those two games as well, so that’s not a good sign either.  The Ducks allowed FCS UC Davis to make 20 first downs while gaining 392 yards of offense in their season opener.  In their game against Virginia last week, Oregon gave up 28 first downs and 388 yards of offense.  But even more alarming was the fact that they allowed Virginia to run for 193 yards on 4.8 yards per rush.  Oregon will now travel to play their first road game of the season while taking a monumental step-up in offensive class.

Nebraska also comes into this game with a 2-0 record, but the Cornhuskers are 2-0 ATS after waxing their opponents, Fresno State and Wyoming, by a combined score of 95-27.  The Cornhuskers went just 6-7 last season, but they had the biggest misleading record in all of college football.  Their seven losses came by a combined 31 points, and incredibly, four of their six losses came on the final play of the game.  Nebraska averaged 32.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus opponents that only gave up 25 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Those numbers show how good of team they were last season.  Nebraska is averaging 215 rushing yards per game, so they’ll run all over the poor Oregon defensive line.  My power ratings make Nebraska a solid 6.5-point favorite, so there’s tremendous value in taking the Cornhuskers in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Fresno State is still in rebuilding mode after going 3-9 last season.  The Bulldogs lost their season opener 43-10 at Nebraska after getting out-gained 406-274 in that game.  Fresno State gave up 292 rushing yards while allowing Nebraska to average 5.7 yards per rush.  The Bulldogs beat FCS Sacramento State at home last week, but once again, they gave up 99 rushing yards to an inferior opponent.  Fresno State will now have to travel for the second time in three weeks, and they’ll be heading across the country to play in the Eastern time zone.  This is a terrible scheduling spot for Fresno State, and the matchup on the field is horrendous as well.

Toledo is in their first year under head coach Jason Candle, but the Rockets have been impressive in their first two games.  Toledo is 2-0 after beating Arkansas State and FCS Maine by a combined score of 76-13.  The Rockets have 7 returning offensive starters back from last season’s 10-2 team which averaged 35 points per game on 461 yards of offense per game.  Toledo’s strength is running the football; they averaged 208 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush last season.  In two games this season, the Rockets have rushed for 372 yards on 4.8 yards per rush.  Toledo will run all over the poor Fresno State defense, so we’ll lay the points with the Rockets on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play TOLEDO (-).

Houston has picked up right where they left off last season.  The Cougars went 13-1 last season, and they are already 2-0 this year, including an upset win at Oklahoma in their season opener.  Make no mistake about it, Houston is a very good team.  But tonight’s game in Cincinnati will be  an extremely challenging game for the Cougars.  Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is nursing a shoulder injury; he did not play in last week’s game against Lamar.  Running back Duke Catalon also missed last week’s game with a sprained ankle, so Houston’s top two playmakers are both playing at less than 100%.  Houston beat Cincinnati 33-30 as 9-point home favorites last season, but that was a misleading win as the Cougars were out-gained 589-427 by the Bearcats in that game.

Cincinnati only went 7-6 last season, but the Bearcats lost three games by single digits, and they actually out-gained their conference opponents by 167.4 yards per game.  Those numbers do not translate into a 6-loss team, so the Bearcats were an undervalued team coming into 2016.  Cincinnati is 2-0 on the season, including an easy win at Purdue last week.  Quarterback Hayden Moore is now under center full time, and he’s been terrific so far this season.  Moore has thrown for 510 yards with 5 touchdowns and just 1 interception.  He will face a Houston defense that gave up 323 passing yards on a whopping 9.5 yards per pass attempt to Oklahoma back in Week 1.  My power ratings only make Houston a 3-point favorite in this game, so getting a touchdown with the Bearcats presents some excellent value.  We’ll take the points with Cincinnati in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CINCINNATI (+).

Pittsburgh will be without a couple of key offensive weapons for tonight’s season opener in Washington.  Running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Martavis Bryant are both suspended, and they are the go-to guys for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.  Big Ben has an emerging performance pattern over the last two seasons where he has performed significantly better at home than on the road.  At home, Roethlisberger owns an incredible 39/11 touchdown/interception ratio over the past two years.  But on the road, Roethlisberger has a 14/14 TD/INT ratio, and without his two best offensive playmakers, it’s hard to imagine a big game from Pittsburgh’s quarterback tonight.

Washington played well down the stretch in 2015 as they won their final four games all straight-up as an underdog to win their division and make the playoffs.  The Redskins are healthy and at full strength coming into this season, so that gives them a nice edge over the Steelers tonight.  Washington was also a much better team at home last year where they went 6-2 SU in the regular season and 5-1 ATS as an underdog.  The Redskins have the offense to exploit a terrible Pittsburgh secondary, and that will be magnified since the Steelers have injury concerns to their pass rushers.  Washington is simply in much better shape coming into this game and the Redskins present value at home on Monday night.

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

New England will be without quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the season due to a suspension.  The Patriots will also be without Rob Gronkowski because of an injury.  While it’s true the Patriots are shorthanded and starting an inexperienced quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, don’t underestimate head coach Bill Belichick having all training camp to formulate a game plan for Arizona.  Belichick is the best in the business at finding and attacking an opponent’s weakness, so we can expect the Patriots to be well-prepared for the Cardinals on both sides of the ball in this game.

Arizona is certainly a very good team that also has an excellent head coach in Bruce Arians.  However, the Cardinals have performed poorly as a home favorite under Arians over his three seasons on the job.  Arizona is just 8-9 ATS when laying points at home, including a woeful 3-6 ATS in that role in 2015.  The Cardinals are a team built to excel as an underdog, and in fact, Arizona is 15-8 ATS when getting points under Arians.  Arizona’s offense will be facing a New England defense that should be stout once again this season; they held their opponents to just 20 points and 336 yards of offense last season.  This line is simply way overinflated, so we’ll take the points with New England on Sunday night.  

9* Play PATRIOTS (+).

Detroit and Indianapolis have some major question marks on the defensive side of the ball.  The Lions defense was dreadful last season as they gave up 25 points and 349 yards per game.  On the road last season, the Lions gave up 20 points or more in six of their eight games.  That included games against woeful offenses like the Chargers, Rams, and Bears.  If the preseason was any indication, the Detroit defense may be even worse this season; they gave up 30 points in two of their four games.  Indianapolis’ defense was also poor last season as they gave up 25 points on 379 yards of offense per game.  The Colts held their opposition to less than 20 points in just four of their sixteen games in 2015.  Indianapolis also has cluster injuries in their secondary, so they’ll have to play unproven talent against what projects to be a potent Detroit offense in this game.  

The Lions and Colts will both possess potent offenses this season.  Detroit installed an up-tempo spread attack that really took off last season.  Their offense got better and better as the season went on, and in fact, the Lions scored 23 points or more in five of their last six games.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent in those games, and overall he finished the season by completing 67.2% of his passes with an excellent 32/13 touchdown/interception ratio.  The  Indianapolis offense will have a healthy Andrew Luck at quarterback, and his presence alone makes the Colts an efficient scoring team.  Luck threw 15 touchdown passes in just seven games in 2015 despite playing banged-up.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Lions and Colts on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Washington State made a big jump last season when they went from a 3-9 team in 2014 to a 9-3 team in 2015.  However, the Cougars were a fortunate team as five of their wins came by 7 points or less.  Washington State also won four games outright as underdogs, including two as double digit underdogs.  The Cougars were not as good as those numbers would indicate as they only out-scored their opponents by 3.8 points per game.  It was a fluky good season, and we expect major regression in 2016.  We saw that last week when the Cougars lost 45-42 as 27.5-point home favorites against FCS Eastern Washington.  The Cougars gave up a whopping 606 yards of offense in that game, so to say Washington State has a terrible defense may be an understatement.

Boise State failed to win 10 games or more in 2015 for just the second time in the past ten years.  Head coach Bryan Harsin is in his third season, and with the returning talent on hand, his team is poised for big things in 2016.  All three of their best offensive players are back, including quarterback Mark Rypien.  He was a first-team All-Mountain West selection as a true freshman, and with natural development, the sky is the limit for Rypien.  He will also benefit from a change in coaching responsibilities.  Harsin, who was the offensive coordinator under former coach Chris Petersen from 2006-2010, is calling the plays in 2016.  Boise State’s offense was terrific last week as they scored 45 points on 584 yards of total offense at UL Lafayette.  The Broncos will be able to score at will against a woeful Washington State defense, so we’ll lay the points with Boise State in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

South Carolina is still in rebuilding mode despite winning their season opener at Vanderbilt.  The Gamecocks were trailing 10-0 at the half before winning on a last-second field goal.  South Carolina’s offense only tallied 14 first downs on 308 yards of total offense.  That was hardly a winning performance, especially in a SEC game.  New head coach Will Muschamp inherited a very inexperienced team that only returned nine total starters from a team that went just 3-9 last season.  However, only five of those players started the last game for one reason or another.  The Gamecocks also mixed in true freshman quarterback, Brandon McIlwain, who struggled mightily.  South Carolina’s defense has been horrendous in recent years.  The Gamecocks gave up 30.4 points and 433 yards per game in 2014, and they allowed 27.5 points and 430 yards per game in 2015.  That spells trouble in this game against the Bulldogs.  

Mississippi State was embarrassed at home by South Alabama last week; the Bulldogs lost 21-20 as 27.5-point favorites.  However, they led that game 20-7 heading into the fourth quarter before the Jaguars scored the winning touchdown with less than a minute to play.  While it’s true Mississippi State is without quarterback Dak Prescott who is now starting for the Cowboys in the NFL, their offensive strength is running the football.  The Bulldogs rushed for 239 yards on a whopping 7.0 yards per rush in last week’s game.  That strong rushing attack should control this game against South Carolina’s young and porous defense, especially after seeing Vanderbilt have rushing success last week.  This is a good bounce back spot for Mississippi State, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (-).

Florida Atlantic may be a good team in Conference USA this season, but they are simply out-classed in this game versus Miami.  The Owls have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years as their defense cannot stop teams from BCS conferences.  In their last five road games versus power conferences, Florida Atlantic has allowed 34, 45, 55, 41, and 20 points for an average of 39 points per game.  The Owls hosted the Hurricanes last season, and they gave up 44 points on 526 yards of total offense in their 24-point loss.  Florida Atlantic beat FCS Southern Illinois 38-30 last week, but they lost the first down battle 26-19 while getting out-gained 530-457 in the game.  Now they’ll hit the road while taking a major step-up in class.    

Miami did not have any ‘Golden Years’ under former head coach Al Golden.  The Hurricanes are now led by former Georgia head coach Mark Richt who stepped into a terrific situation in South Florida.  The Hurricanes’ offense returned nearly intact, including all five starters along the offensive line.  Miami scored 70 points on 523 yards of total offense in their 67-point win over Florida A&M last week.  Miami’s experienced defense has a new coordinator in Manny Diaz, and that unit was stout last week while holding their opponent to just 3 points and 197 yards of total offense.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes on Saturday night.

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Louisville’s offense was in mid-season form last week as they scored 70 points on 663 yards against Charlotte.  The Cardinals were extremely balanced in that game with 272 yards on the ground and 391 yards thru the air.  Quarterback Lamar Jackson completed 73.9% (17-23) of his passes while throwing six touchdown passes and zero interceptions.  Louisville’s offense should have another productive offensive game against a Syracuse defense that is taking a major step-up in class after facing a pedestrian Colgate offense last week.  The Orange gave up 31 points and 439 yards per game last season; they gave up 41 points on 579 yards of offense to Louisville.

Syracuse scored 33 points on 554 yards of total offensive in their easy 26-point win over Colgate last week.  New head coach Dino Babers brought his fast-paced, high-octane offense with him from Bowling Green where his teams averaged 30 and 42.2 points per game in his two years.  Syracuse’s offense was efficient as they ran 81 plays overall, including 46 pass attempts that averaged a whopping 9.5 yards per pass.  Quarterback Eric Dungey completed an incredible 85% (34-40) of his passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns.  Look for a lot of offense in this game; Louisville and Syracuse Over the total.      

9* Play OVER the total.

Carolina and Denver will open the 2016 NFL season in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl in which the Broncos won 24-10.  That was a low-scoring defensive struggle, and we expect tonight’s game to play out in a similar way.  Carolina’s offensive line was manhandled by Denver’s defensive line in the Super Bowl, and with the same personnel returning, it’s hard to see much difference tonight.  The Panthers are a run first offense, and when they are successful running the ball, passing plays open up for quarterback Cam Newton.  But even if that happens to a degree, Newton will be throwing against a very good Denver secondary that stifled him in the Super Bowl.

Denver will be beginning a new chapter tonight with second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian under center.  Siemian has limited experience, and he’ll be facing a tough and physical Carolina front seven.  The Panthers have questions to answer in the secondary with a pair of rookies starting at the corners, but it’s unlikely that Siemian will be able to take advantage of that in his first start of the season.  Denver will also look to run the ball with great frequency tonight as they do not want to pin this game on Siemian’s arm.  The Bronocs know their defense will keep them in this game, so a conservative offensive game plan will be seen.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Panthers and Broncos on Thursday night.  

10* Play UNDER the total.

Florida State returns 17 total starters; the most they’ve had in 20 years.  The defense made big strides last season by limiting opponents to just 4.7 yards per play, so expect the Seminoles to have one of the best stop units in the country.  However, the quarterback position is the biggest question mark for the Seminoles.  Redshirt freshman Deondre Francois is said to be the real deal, and he certainly looks like it on film, but this is his first collegiate start, and his team is laying too many points into a very good Mississippi team.  The Seminoles do have an excellent running back in Dalvin Cook who will take the pressure off Francois, so a conservative game plan is quite possible here.

Mississippi has improved each season under head coach Hugh Freeze.  The Rebels have won 7, 8, 9, and 10 games in his first four years on the job.  While it’s unlikely Mississippi will win 11 games this season, there’s no question they will be a very good team once again.  Quarterback Chad Kelly is a senior, so that gives him a huge experience edge over Francois in this game.  Kelly has won a lot of big games for the Rebels, including back-to-back wins over Alabama.  The Rebels’ defense has been excellent in recent years, and there’s talk they will return to the 16 points per game unit they had in 2014.  My power ratings make Florida State a 4-point favorite, so we’ll take the extra points with Mississippi in this game on Monday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Notre Dame was a loss away from reaching the college football playoff last season.  The Irish could find themselves in the hunt once again this season as their schedule sets up nicely for a deep run.  Notre Dame will play a two quarterback system with DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire, so it will be interesting to see how the offense performs in that situation.  Notre Dame will be facing a Texas defense that should be much improved this year as they return eight starters on that side of the ball.

Texas has a lot of hype coming into 2016.  Head coach Charlie Strong is on a very hot seat, so it’s all or nothing for the Longhorns.  Texas will also be running a two quarterback offense with senior Tyrone Swoopes and true freshman Shane Buechele under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert who was behind Baylor’s potent offensive attack the last few seasons.  However, Texas is installing a fast tempo, full spread offense, and it’s simply going to take time for them to execute it correctly and efficiently.  Notre Dame’s defense held Texas to just 3 points and 8 first downs on just 163 yards of total offense in last year’s game, and it’s hard to see the Longhorns having a lot of success in this game.  We expect a low-scoring game between Notre Dame and Texas on Sunday night.      

9* Play UNDER the total.

Todd Monken revived the once solid Southern Miss football program.  Monken improved the teams’ record in each year he was there, and it culminated with a West title in 2015.  But as is the case with success at non-power conference schools, the coach uses it as a stepping stone for a higher-profile, and a bigger paying job.  Monken left Southern Miss to be the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL.  Jay Hopson is the new head coach; he spent six seasons under Jeff Bower at Southern Miss, so he’s returning to a very familiar place.  Hopson went 28-10 in his final three seasons as Alcorn State while winning two SWAC titles over that time.  Hopson brought defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro with him, and his aggressive unit recorded 46 sacks and 119 tackles for loss.  The Golden Eagles return an experienced team that has an explosive offense (39.9 ppg in 2015).  Quarterback Nick Mullens and running back Ito Smith form a formidable duo in the backfield.

Kentucky has been a disappointing team under head coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats are just 12-24 SU in his three years, and there’s nothing pointing to a winning 2016 season.  Kentucky will be working in a new quarterback (Drew Barker) after last year’s starter Patrick Towles transferred to Boston College.  The Wildcats’ offense scored more than 27 points in just three of their ten games last season, so it’s hard to imagine much improvement this season.  Kentucky’s defense will be a major issue as they only return five starters on that side of the ball.  The Wildcats lost seven of their top eight tacklers from last year’s improved unit, so they’ll revert back to the 31.3 points per game they allowed in Stoops’ first two seasons.  My power ratings only make Kentucky 2-point favorites, so we’ll take the points with Southern Mississippi in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (+).

Georgia will begin a new era on Saturday night as new head coach Kirby Smart replaces Mark Richt who won 145 games over the last 15 seasons.  Smart has never been a head coach; he made his mark as Alabama’s defensive coordinator over the last eight seasons.  Smart inherits a Georgia team that went 10-3 last season, but five of those wins came by 7 points or less.  The Bulldogs do return 14 starters, but their offense has to improve significantly if they expect to win 10 games or more for the third consecutive season.  Georgia’s offense averaged just 26.3 points on 377 yards per game last season, and with freshman quarterback Jacob Eason close to replacing inconsistent senior Greyson Lambert under center, the Bulldogs have many questions to answer coming into 2016.

North Carolina had their breakout season under head coach Larry Fedora last year when they went 11-3 en route to a trip to the ACC championship game.  The Tar Heels have an excellent chance at repeating last season’s success, especially since they return 14 overall starters.  North Carolina did lose quarterback Marquise Williams, but Mitch Trubisky has plenty of experience, and he also possess similar skills.  The Tar Heels also return all of their skill players from an offense that averaged 40.7 points on 487 yards per game in 2015.  North Carolina’s defense improved by 14.5 points last season, and that unit should be just as good this year.  My power ratings make this game a Pick, so getting a field goal with the Tar Heels present some good value.  We’ll take the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play NORTH CAROLINA (+).

South Carolina is in rebuilding mode.  Steve Spurrier retired, and in steps former Florida head coach Will Muschamp.  He’ll inherit a very inexperienced team that only returned nine total starters from a team that went just 3-9 last season.  However, only five of those starters are expected to start this game because the others have either lost their starting job due to injury or performance, are injured or have quit the team.  The Gamecocks will also play a true freshman at quarterback (Brandon McIlwain); young quarterbacks making their first start on the road has been a negative situation in college football over the years.  South Carolina’s defense has also been horrendous in recent years.  The Gamecocks gave up 30.4 points and 433 yards per game in 2014, and they allowed 27.5 points and 430 yards per game in 2015.

Vanderbilt is set for a breakout season in 2016.  The Commodores are in their third year under head coach Derek Mason, and they return 15 overall starters.  Mason has high expectations for his team, saying “never been more excited for what this team has to offer.”  Vanderbilt will have the services of their best offensive player, running back Ralph Webb, and their best defensive player, linebacker Zach Cunningham on the field which solidifies both sides of the ball.  Vanderbilt is 5-1 SU as a home favorite under Mason; they won those games by an average of 12.4 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Vanderbilt in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play VANDERBILT (-).

Carolina’s two playoff games couldn't have started any better as they jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead over Seattle, and a 17-0 first quarter lead over Arizona.  The Panthers didn't stop there as they extended their leads to 31-0 at the half over the Seahawks, and 24-7 at the half over the Cardinals.  The Panthers had good fortune in both of those games with their opponents turning the ball over which led to easy scores for Carolina.  However, this game should be much different against the stout Denver defense.  The Panthers’ offense did lead the NFL in first half scoring while averaging 17.8 points per game.  But Denver’s defense ranked 5th in the league in first half scoring; they allowed just 8.8 points per game.  Overall, the Broncos are only allowing 18.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play this season, so Carolina’s offense will have to earn every point they get in this game, especially in the first half against a fresh Denver defense.            

Denver had to play two different playoff games to reach the Super Bowl.  The Broncos trailed for most of the first 45 minutes against Pittsburgh before pulling out the win in the fourth quarter.  Denver led wire-to-wire against New England as their defense simply dominated that game at the line of scrimmage.  The Broncos gave up just 10 first half points to the Steelers, and just 9 first half points to the Patriots.  Denver’s defensive profile showed that they started games off strong before wearing down late; nothing should change in this game.  Denver’s best chance to win this game is to play ball control, and let their defense do the rest.  That is especially true early on in this game, so we expect a conservative game plan by the Broncos.  Carolina’s defense ranked #2 in the NFL while giving up just 7.1 points per game in the first half.  Denver’s offense only averaged 10.9 points per game in the first half.  We expect this game to have limited offense early on, and while the second half should produce more points, a low-scoring first half will provide enough cushion for this game to stay Under the full game total.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Arizona is 14-3 on the season as they’ve combined an explosive offense with a shutdown defense.  The Cardinals have played back-to-back poor offensive games, but we expect a peak performance in this game.  Arizona is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home.  Arizona’s defense has also played above average football this season.  The Cardinals are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 21.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Arizona’s defense is only giving up 18.7 points per game on the road this season.    

Carolina is obviously a very good team with a 16-1 record, but this a bad matchup for the Panthers.  Carolina’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  Against good offenses, the Panthers gave up 24 points to Seattle, 29 points to Green Bay, 38 points to New Orleans, and 35 points to the New York Giants.  Carolina’s offense also faced poor defenses that gave up 24.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season; Arizona’s defense is allowing 4.7 points per game less than the opponents the Panthers faced.  These two teams are even across the board, so we’ll take Arizona plus the points in the NFC Championship on Sunday night.      

9* Play CARDINALS (+).

Arizona’s offense is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 63.5% (367-578) of his passes for 5,020 yards with an excellent 38/13 touchdown/interception ratio.  Palmer is averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt.  Palmer will face a young and inexperienced Carolina cornerback in Robert McClain who the Panthers just signed on December 15th.  The Panthers also play older veterans in the secondary, so the young and fast Arizona wide receivers will exploit that unit for big plays downfield just like Seattle did last week.

Carolina also has a strong offense that is averaging 32.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.  The Panthers have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 236.7 yards per game thru the air on 8.0 yards per pass attempt.  Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has thrown for 3,998 yards this season with an excellent 36/10 touchdown/interception ratio.  Carolina’s offense will score their share of points against an Arizona defense that has allowed 56 points in their last two games.  The Panthers have scored 24 points or more in every home game this season.  We expect a high-scoring NFC Championship game between the Cardinals and Panthers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

New England played in Denver earlier this season, and the Patriots held a 21-7 lead in the fourth quarter before inexplicably losing 30-24 in overtime.  New England’s offense was less than 100% healthy with multiple offensive injuries in that game, so it was even more impressive they held a two touchdown lead after three quarters of play.  The Patriots are now back at full strength on offense, and as we saw last week, New England is an efficient team that is extremely difficult to stop.  Overall, the Patriots are averaging 28.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 23 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New England is the best scheming team in the NFL, and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability negates Denver’s pass rush which in turn makes a short passing game very dangerous, especially with the Broncos’ best cover guy, Chris Harris, playing with an injured shoulder.  New England knows they’ll have little success running on Denver, so we expect to see the Patriots spread the Broncos out and dink and dunk their way downfield.

Denver beat Pittsburgh 23-16 last week, but the Broncos were fortunate.  The Steelers played without their top wide receiver and their top running back while quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a bad throwing shoulder.  Despite that, Pittsburgh’s offense racked-up 396 yards of total offense in that game.  Denver’s offense was also facing a terrible Pittsburgh secondary that left receivers wide open, and despite that, QB Peyton Manning completed just 21 of his 37 passes for 222 yards.  Overall, Manning is completing just 57.4% (93-162) of his passes with a horrendous 1/8 touchdown/interception ratio at home this season.  The Patriots are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver’s offense is only averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite facing defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  New England is the better team on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Patriots in the AFC Championship on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Seattle’s offense has been excellent over the second half of the season.  The Seahawks have scored 29 points or more in seven of their last nine games, including 35 points or more in four of those games.  Overall, Seattle is averaging 25.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 68.1% (329-483) of his passes for 4,024 yards with an excellent 34/8 touchdown/interception ratio.  Wilson is averaging a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt.  Wilson will face a young and inexperienced Carolina cornerback in Robert McClain who the Panthers just signed on December 15th.  The Panthers also play older veterans in the secondary, so the young and fast Seattle wide receivers will exploit that unit for big plays downfield.

Carolina also has a strong offense that is averaging 33 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Panthers have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 247.4 yards per game thru the air on 8.1 yards per pass attempt.  Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has thrown for 3,837 yards this season with an excellent 35/10 touchdown/interception ratio.  Carolina’s offense will score their share of points against a Seattle defense that has only faced one explosive offense in their last six games.  The Panthers scored 27 points on the Seahawks in Seattle in an earlier season meeting, and their offense has been better at home where they’ve scored 24 points or more in every game this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Seahawks and Panthers on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Seattle is 9-2 over their last eleven games after opening the season with a 2-4 record in their first six games.  Aside from last week’s game in frigid Minnesota where the Seahawks scored just 10 points, Seattle’s offense has been fantastic this season.  They’ve scored 29 points or more in seven of their last nine games, including 35 points or more in four of those games.  Overall, Seattle is averaging 25.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play away from home.  Seattle’s defense is in terrific current form as they’ve allowed a total of 64 points in their last six games.  Granted, they only played one potent offense (Arizona) during that span, but allowing just 10.7 points per game during a stretch of games is still pretty impressive.  

Carolina obviously had an excellent regular season where they went 15-1, including a 27-23 win at Seattle back in Week 6.  But the Panthers actually trailed 23-14 before scoring two touchdowns over the final 3:55 of the game to pull out the win.  Carolina also went into that game off their bye, so they had two weeks to prepare for that game.  The Panthers have the same luxury for this game, but Seattle is playing much better football now than they were back then.  Carolina’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  Against good offenses, the Panthers gave up 29 points to Green Bay, 38 points to New Orleans, and 35 points to the New York Giants.  Carolina’s offense also faced poor defenses that gave up 24.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season; Seattle’s defense is allowing 7.8 points per game less than the opponents the Panthers faced.  Seattle is the better overall team, so we’ll take the Seahawks plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

Kansas City romped in a 30-0 blowout win in Houston last week.  We cashed a Best Bet winner on the Chiefs in that game, and we’ll come right back with them once again this week.  Kansas City is a perfect 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games.  The Chiefs have won all eleven of those games by 4 points or more, and their average win has come by a whopping 16.4 points per game.  Kansas City ranks #3 on offense and #2 on defense in my efficiency metrics.  The Chiefs rank #1 in the NFL in overall efficiency based on my metrics while New England ranks #4.  However, the Patriots’ numbers were manufactured while they had a healthy team.  Kansas City has an excellent rushing offense, and they get a good match-up here against New England’s defense.  The Chiefs are averaging 128.4 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.  That strong rushing attack will face a Patriots defense that ranked #10 in efficiency against the run this season.

New England comes into this game with a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball.  The Patriots’ offense has been a mess since losing Julian Edelman back in Week 10.  Edelman is slated to return for this game, but after missing two months of football, it would be surprising if he played like his old self.  Rob Gronkowski will be a game-time decision with knee and back issues, but even if he plays, his effectiveness may be limited because of a particular pain killing injection he received this week.  Those two guys make the Patriots’ offense go, so quarterback Tom Brady may be hindered in this game, especially since the offensive line play was horrendous in their last few games.  Kansas City has a strong defense that matches-up well with New England; the Chiefs give up 16.9 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England’s defense is also in flux after Chandler Jones was hospitalized for a reaction to synthetic marijuana earlier this week.  This should be a low-scoring game that is decided by a field goal, so we’ll take the points with the Chiefs in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play CHIEFS (+).

Clemson had a surprising season by going undefeated at 14-0.  The Tigers were projected to be a year or two away from having a really good team after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 10-3 team that beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  Clemson was hardly challenged this season, but their two closest games came against the two best defense they faced; they beat Louisville 20-17 and they beat Notre Dame 24-22.  The Tigers will now face the best defense in the country, so their offense has an extremely difficult challenge ahead of them.  Alabama’s defense allowed just 13.4 points per game on 4.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide had even better defensive numbers away from home where they gave up just 12 points per game.  Clemson’s offense and quarterback Deshaun Watson may pose a threat to Alabama’s defense early on because the Tigers run the spread and Watson is the best mobile quarterback in the country.  “I think mobile quarterbacks are a problem for every defense, not just us,” said Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.  “We’re maybe better at stopping the traditional-style offenses.”  While that is concerning, it also means Watson is going to take more powerful hits than normal, and that will take a toll on him as this game goes on.

Alabama went 13-1 this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 3 against Mississippi as 9-point favorites.  Twelve of their thirteen wins this season have come by 13 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 23.1 points per game.  Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 204.4 yards per game on the ground and 219.4 yards per game thru the air.  Alabama ran for 215 yards or more in eight games this season, and they won those games by an average of 18.9 points per game.  Clemson’s defense allowed 130 rushing yards or more seven times this season, and the Tigers gave up 25.3 points per game in those games.  Clemson’s defense gave up just 20 points per game overall, so their defense is vulnerable against good rushing attacks, and Alabama has one of the best in the country with Derrick Henry.  Overall, Alabama ranked 9th in offensive and defensive efficiency combined while Clemson ranked 28th.  That’s a significant difference, and it clearly shows that Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in the championship game on Monday night.

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

Green Bay and Washington match-up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday.  The Packers come into this game off back-to-back poor offensive performances.  They scored just 8 points in Arizona two weeks ago, and they scored just 13 points at home against Minnesota last week.  But Green Bay will bounce back with a much better performance in this game, especially since they are facing a Washington defense that has given up 72 points in their last three games against bad offenses like the Bills, Eagles, and Cowboys.  Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a fantastic 31/8 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  Rodgers and the Packers offense will go up against a Redskins defense that ranks 19th against the pass in efficiency while giving up 30 touchdown passes this season.  Washington’s defense has also been gouged on the ground recently as they’ve allowed 385 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per rush over their last three games.  Green Bay will be able to move the ball consistently on the ground and thru the air.  

Washington’s offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 25.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins comes into this game in tremendous current form; he has completed 73% of his passes with an exceptional 11/0 touchdown/interception ratio over his last three games.  Overall, Cousins has thrown for 4,166 yards with a 29/11 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Green Bay defense that is giving up 23.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road.  The Packers’ secondary is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, so Cousins will throw the ball all over the field tonight.  Washington’s running game has also been terrific at home where they are averaging 130.7 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  The Packers give up 124 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush on the road.  Both offenses will move the ball consistently on the ground and thru the air, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Redskins on Sunday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Kansas City is a perfect 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games.  The Chiefs have won all ten of those games by 4 points or more, and their average win has come by a whopping +15 points per game.  Kansas City already beat the Texans this season; the Chiefs won that game 27-20 in Houston way back in Week 1.  That game was not nearly as close as the final score indicates; Kansas City led 27-9 at the half, and they led by an average of +13.5 points per minute.  That was a dominating performance, and I expect a repeat performance in this game today.  Kansas City sweeps the board in the 22 advanced metrics I use in the NFL; that is extremely rare, especially in the playoffs.  The Chiefs hold a significant edge on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency; Kansas City ranks #3 on offense and #2 on defense while Houston ranks #21 on offense and #16 on defense.  The Chiefs rank #1 in the NFL in overall efficiency based on my metrics while Houston ranks #20 which is the lowest of all 12 playoff teams this season.  Kansas City has an excellent rushing offense, and they get a good match-up here against Houston’s defense.  The Chiefs are averaging 128 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  That strong rushing attack will face a Texans defense that was better against the pass (#7) than against the run (#13) in efficiency this season.

Houston needed to end the season on a 3-game winning streak just to make the playoffs.  The Texans beat three also-rans in the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars.  Houston played back-to-back perfect games in their last two as they beat Jacksonville and Tennessee by a combined score of 64-12.  The Texans led the Jaguars by an average of 11.1 points per minute, and they led the Titans by an average of 19.1 points per minute.  Those two performances set Houston up to regress sharply, even though this is a playoff game.  Prior to Houston’s last three wins, they also beat a New York Jets team that was on a 1-3 SU slide and they beat a New Orleans team that was just 1-5 SU on the road going into that game.  Houston also won at Cincinnati, but that was a phony win as they only had 256 yards of total offense while scoring just 3 total points thru the first three quarters of the game.  The wins looked good on the scoreboard, but Houston’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Texans only average 21.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Chiefs are only giving up 17.9 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Kansas City is simply the superior team, so lay the points with the Chiefs in this Wild Card game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

Minnesota comes in off a big 49-17 home win over the Giants last Sunday night.  That was the Vikings’ second consecutive blowout win after they beat the Bears 38-17 the week before.  Off back-to-back dominating performances in which they led by double-digits for the majority of those games, we expect regression tonight, especially with this game being on the road.  The Vikings’ offense is not explosive by any means, especially on the road where they are only averaging 20.6 points per game.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is essentially a game manager, and the Vikings offense isn’t built to trade points, especially against a potent offense.  The Vikings only scored 13 points at home in the first meeting against the Packers, so it’s hard to see Minnesota having much offensive success in this game, especially since Green Bay only allows 16.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home this season. 

Green Bay returns home off an embarrassing 38-8 loss in Arizona last week.  We had a Best Bet against the Packers in that game, so that result wasn’t a shocker by any means.  We are willing to simply draw a line thru that game, and off such a poor performance, the Packers are primed for a peak performance tonight.  Green Bay’s offense is averaging 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.  The Packers scored 30 points on the Vikings in Minnesota despite quarterback Aaron Rodgers completing just 47.1% (16-34) of his passes.  Green Bay is 5-2 at home this season with all five wins coming by 7 points or more; their average home win has come by 12.4 points per game.  We’ll back Green Bay in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play PACKERS (-).

New England still has a lot to play for as a win clinches the #1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Patriots come into this game off a 26-20 overtime loss last week in New York against the Jets.  New England was fortunate to even be in that game as they were absolutely dominated by the Jets from the opening kick.  Off such a poor performance and with something big on the line to play for, we expect a peak performance by New England in this game.  The Patriots already beat the Dolphins handily this season; they won 36-7 back in late-October.  New England put-up 437 yards of total offense, and that was back when Miami was playing good football.  The Patriots’ strength remains on the offensive side of the ball where they are averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  

Miami mailed this season in right after that loss in New England.  Since that game, the Dolphins are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS with four of the six losses coming by double digits.  Miami’s two wins during that span came against the Eagles who are a complete mess and just fired their head coach, and the Ravens who are also a mess with just a 5-10 record.  Miami has played a slew of also-rans in their recent games, and they’ve been noncompetitive.  The Dolphins are now taking a monumental step-up in class against the Patriots in this game; a team that is 12-3 on the season with a +160 point differential.  To compare, Miami has a -89 point differential on the season, and New England’s defense has allowed just 5 points more (295-290) than Miami’s offense has scored this season.  The Patriots are the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with New England in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Baltimore played their big game last week at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Ravens won 20-17 as 11-point underdogs.  That win was preceded by back-to-back blowout losses in which they lost by a combined score of 69-20.  Baltimore was in a good spot last week as they were playing their third straight home game while catching Pittsburgh off three consecutive big wins.  Off that big win, we expect major regression from the Ravens in this game, especially since they have to play on the road against an opponent that will be primed for a big effort.  Baltimore’s offense is terrible as they are only averaging 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Ravens will face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing just 17.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

Cincinnati returns home off back-to-back road games with the last being an overtime loss in Denver.  The Bengals have played three of their last four games on the road, and their last home game was an embarrassing 33-20 loss to the Steelers.  Cincinnati has a lot to play for as a win and a Denver loss can secure the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs for the Bengals.  The good thing is that the Broncos play a late afternoon game, so Cincinnati will go all out for a win to give themselves a chance.  Quarterback A.J. McCarron has played well while replacing starter Andy Dalton.  In two starts, McCarron has completed 66.1% (37-56) of his passes for 395 yards.  The Bengals will run all over a Baltimore defense that has given up 442 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per rush over the last month.  Cincinnati is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Pittsburgh comes into this game off a terrible 20-17 loss in Baltimore as 11-point favorites last week.  Off that poor effort, and with a lot to play for, we expect a big bounce back game from the Steelers.  Pittsburgh can only make the playoffs with a win and a Jets loss, so they will go all out here.  The Steelers dominated the Browns earlier this season; they won 30-9 in mid-November.  We expect a repeat of that game, especially since Pittsburgh will be primed for a big performance off a terrible showing last week.  Overall this season, the Steelers are averaging 26.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 21.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Cleveland’s defense is terrible; they are giving up 26.9 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 22.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Cleveland is having another dysfunctional season; the Browns come into this game with an ugly 3-12 record.  Rumors are swirling that their head coach and general manager will be fired after this game.  Cleveland once again has no stability at the quarterback position, and with Johnny Manziel out with a concussion, Austin Davis will start their final game of the season.  Cleveland’s offense is only averaging 17.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Browns have scored 13 points or less in three of their last four games, and with the Steelers only giving up 20.5 points per game this season, it’s hard to see Cleveland’s offense scoring many points in this game.  Pittsburgh is simply the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Steelers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (-).

West Virginia and Arizona State have two offensive-minded coaches that will result in a high-scoring shootout.  The Mountaineers’ offense averaged 33.2 points per game this season, and their recent bowl history suggests a lot of points in this game.  West Virginia’s last two bowl games were both shootouts; they lost 45-37 to Texas A&M last year and they beat Clemson 70-33 a few years back.  The Mountaineers have solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they were night and day at home and on the road.  Away from home, West Virginia’s defense was simply terrible as they gave up 34 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Against seven bowl opponents, West Virginia gave up 33 points per game on 429 yards of offense this season.  West Virginia is taking a major step-up in offensive class against Arizona State in this game, and we expect the Mountaineers’ defense to get exposed.       

Arizona State has a potent offense that averaged 34 points per game this season.  The Sun Devils were well-balanced as they averaged 185.2 yards on the ground and 288.6 yards thru the air per game this season.  Head coach Todd Graham has a history of scoring a lot of points in bowl games; 36 points last year, 62 points in 2012, 62 points in 2010, 45 points in 2008, and 63 points in 2007.  Arizona State’s defense played below average this season as the Sun Devils allowed 32.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Against the ten bowl teams they faced this season, Arizona State gave up 35 points on 457 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between West Virginia and Arizona State on Saturday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Kansas State and Arkansas are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Saturday afternoon.  Kansas State averaged 30.5 points per game this season.  The Wildcats are extremely well-balanced as they ran and passed for more than 160 yards per game this season.  Kansas State will be facing a poor Arkansas defense that allowed 28.2 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home.  Overall, the Razorbacks gave up 6.1 yards per play against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 5.9 yards per play this season.  Against the nine bowl teams they faced this season, Arkansas allowed 32 points on 437 yards of offense per game.     

Arkansas also had a very good offense this season.  The Razorbacks averaged 35.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Like Kansas State, the Razorbacks were extremely well-balanced as they ran for 192 yards and threw for 264 yards per game this season.  Kansas State’s defense played below average football as the Wildcats gave up 30.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 31.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, Kansas State allowed 41 points on 526 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Kansas State and Arkansas on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Mississippi and Oklahoma State both have explosive offenses, and on a fast track inside a dome, we expect a high-scoring game.  The Rebels have an offense that averaged 40.2 points per game on 7.0 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 29.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Mississippi is well-balanced as they ran for 182 yards per game and passed for more than 333 yards per game.  The Rebels running game averaged 5.1 yards per rush this season, and they will face an Oklahoma State run defense that is not in good current form.  The Cowboys allowed 218 rushing yards or more in their last four games of the season.  Oklahoma State’s defense gave up 29 points or more in their last five games, and overall they allowed 37 points and 524 yards per game to the seven bowl opponents they faced this season.

Oklahoma State had an explosive passing attack this season.  The Cowboys threw for 357 yards per game on an incredible 9.1 yards per pass attempt.  Quarterback Mason Rudolph will face a Mississippi secondary that ranked 55th in efficiency while giving up 23 passing touchdowns this season.  Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense averaged 41.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Cowboys will face a Mississippi defense that allowed 31.6 points per game away from home this season.  The Rebels defense allowed 402 yards or more in four of their five road games this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Mississippi and Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl on Friday night.   

9* Play OVER the total.

Notre Dame played tremendous football this season, and they didn’t skip a beat with their backup quarterback (DeShone Kizer) after losing starter Malik Zaire for the season in Week 2.  Notre Dame’s offense averaged 34.7 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Those impressive offensive numbers came against a strong slate of defenses that allowed 24.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Notre Dame has an exceptional rushing attack that averaged 215.6 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.  That strong running game has opened up big plays downfield for Notre Dame, and it has allowed quarterback Kizer to throw for an incredible 8.7 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Fighting Irish have incredible offensive balance as they also pass for 256.3 yards per game; teams with such a profile are exceptional plays as underdogs, especially in bowl games.

Ohio State went 11-1 this season, but the Buckeyes weren’t as dominant as some of their previous teams; the Buckeyes went just 5-7 ATS on the year.  Ohio State actually played a worse slate of defenses than Notre Dame as their opponents allowed 27.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Fighting Irish also played a tougher slate of opposing offenses this season; Notre Dame gave up just 22.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus opponents that averaged 28.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Ohio State played an extremely weak schedule this season, and in fact, it was ranked 58th by efficiency metrics.  To compare, Notre Dame played the 16th rated schedule, and they simply played better football on both sides of the ball against the tougher competition.  This is also a meaningless game for Ohio State after winning the national championship last season, so we’ll take Notre Dame plus the points in this game on Friday afternoon.  

10* Play NOTRE DAME (+).

Clemson had a surprising season by going undefeated at 13-0.  The Tigers were projected to be a year or two away from having a really good team after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 10-3 team that beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  Clemson was hardly challenged this season, but their two closest games came against the two best defense they faced; they beat Louisville 20-17 and they beat Notre Dame 24-22.  The Tigers will now face a strong Oklahoma defense that allowed just 20.7 points per game on 4.7 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 33.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Clemson’s offense hasn’t faced a complete defense like Oklahoma’s all season that combines talent, speed, and physicality at just about every position.  Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson had a fantastic season, but he will be throwing the ball on an Oklahoma secondary that is rated #1 in pass efficiency defense; they allowed just 52.6% completions with 19 interceptions on the season.  Clemson handed down some suspensions this week, including wide receiver Deon Cain who was the Tigers’ biggest deep threat.  

Oklahoma went 11-1 this season with their lone loss coming against rival Texas as 16-point favorites.  Ten of their eleven wins this season have come by 7 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 27.9 points per game.  Oklahoma’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 235 yards per game on the ground and 308 yards per game thru the air.  Oklahoma ran for 232 yards or more in eight games this season, and they averaged an incredible 52 points per game in those games.  Clemson’s defense allowed 130 rushing yards or more seven times this season, and the Tigers gave up 25.3 points per game in those games.  Clemson’s defense gave up just 20.2 points per game, so their defense is vulnerable against good rushing attacks.  Overall, Oklahoma averaged 45.7 points per game on 7.0 yards per play which is by far the best offense Clemson will face this season.  Oklahoma is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Sooners in this game on Thursday afternoon.

10* Play OKLAHOMA (-).

Wisconsin and USC match-up well for a low-scoring game on Wednesday night.  The Badgers play a conservative style of football as they rely heavily on their running game and their defense to win games.  Quarterback Joel Stave is a below-average college quarterback, and it’s highly unlikely he will do much damage against a fast and aggressive USC defense.  Overall this season, Wisconsin’s offense only averaged 27.1 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 27.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Away from home, the Badgers only averaged 4.9 yards per play.  Wisconsin will face a USC defense that played very well considering the tough offensive teams they went up against.  The Trojans allowed 25.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 34.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.

USC’s offense was projected to be much better than they were this season.  The Trojans have a terrific quarterback in Cody Kessler, but their offensive line was a mess all season long, and that line is in shambles for this game.  Kessler got sacked 35 times this season, and the line in front of him tonight will be missing its starting left tackle while a right side starter will flip to the left side  with a true freshman starting as well.  USC’s success this season came when they were able to run the ball consistently, but that is going to be extremely difficult to do in this game.  Wisconsin has an excellent defense that is only allowing 13.1 points per game on 4.4 yards per play this season.  The Badgers have been terrific in stopping the run as they only gave up 98.2 yards per game on 3.2 yards per rush this season.  Wisconsin and USC will both have trouble generating offense, so we expect a low-scoring game on Wednesday night. 

10* Play UNDER the total.

Texas Tech and LSU is a terrific matchup for a back and forth high-scoring shootout.  The Red Raiders will throw the ball on just about every play while the Tigers will run the ball for chunk yards on just about every play.  Texas Tech has a potent offense that averaged 46.6 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play this season.  Texas Tech was well-balanced as they ran for 206 yards per game and threw for 390 yards per game.  The Red Raiders played seven bowl opponents this season, and their offense didn’t slow down at all.  They averaged 41 points per game on 549 yards per game while gaining 6.7 yards per play.  The impressive thing about Texas Tech’s offensive numbers is the fact they accumulated them against a decent group of opposing defenses.  The Red Raiders’ opponents only allowed 5.9 yards per play as a group.  In three games in which LSU allowed 140 yards or more on the ground and thru the air, their opponents scored 30, 31, and 38 points.     

LSU had an explosive offense early in the season; the Tigers averaged 38.9 points per game over their first seven games this season.  They scored 44 points or more in four of those games.  But the Tigers struggled down the stretch against some stout SEC defenses; they only averaged 16.5 points per game in their last four conference games.  LSU will now face one of the worst defenses in the country, and we fully expect their offense to look like they did early in the season.  Overall, LSU averaged 30.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Tigers put those numbers up against a group of defenses that only allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  LSU has a potent running game that averaged 246.6 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.  Texas Tech’s defense was shredded for 42.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  Against seven bowl teams, Texas Tech allowed 50 points per game on 7.2 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between Texas Tech and LSU on Tuesday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Cincinnati bounced back strongly as expected last week when they won 24-14 in San Francisco.  That win was preceded by a home loss to Pittsburgh after quarterback Andy Dalton left with a broken thumb.  A.J. McCarron was good in relief against the Steelers, and last week he simply played mistake-free football while not being asked to do too much.  The challenge for McCarron this week increases significantly against the stout Denver defense.  The Bengals’ offense will have an extremely difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.  Denver’s defense is terrific against the run and the pass, and they lead the NFL in sacks with 47 on the season.  McCarron has taken seven sacks in the two games he has played, so that will be an issue for the Cincinnati offense in this game.  Overall, the Broncos are only allowing 18.5 points per game on 4.1 yards per play at home this season.            

Denver returns home after blowing a 27-10 lead in Pittsburgh last week.  The Broncos’ offense was shutout in the second half for the third consecutive week after opposing defenses made adjustments in defending quarterback Brock Osweiler.  Denver’s offense has been non-explosive all season; they are only averaging 22 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Broncos’ offense has been even worse at home where they are scoring just 21 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Cincinnati’s defense is also one of the best in the league; the Bengals are holding opponents to just 17 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season.  With two young quarterbacks facing strong, veteran defenses, we expect a low-scoring game between the Bengals and Broncos on Monday night.     

10* Play UNDER the total.

New York comes into this game off a high-scoring close loss at home to undefeated Carolina.  The Giants made a furious rally to tie the game after trailing 35-7 in the second half; they ultimately fell short in a 38-35 loss.  That was a draining game, and it was also costly as New York will be without their best offensive player (Odell Beckham); he’s suspended for fighting last week.  New York will be a flat team already, and without Beckham, the Giants will have a difficult time moving the ball in this game.  New York will face a Minnesota defense that is only allowing 20.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play at home this season.  The Vikings’ defense has held ten of their fourteen opponents to 20 points or less this season.       

Minnesota is 9-5 after beating Chicago last week.  The Vikings’ offense will look to control this game on the ground with running back Adrian Peterson.  Minnesota shouldn’t have any trouble doing exactly that as the Giants’ defense is allowing 114.4 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush this season.  The Vikings’ offense is not explosive by any means, especially at home where they are only averaging 21.7 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is essentially a game manager, and the Vikings offense isn’t built to take advantage of a poor New York secondary.  The two offenses will struggle, so we expect a low-scoring game between the Giants and Vikings on Sunday night.   

9* Play UNDER the total.

Green Bay comes into this game on a 3-game winning streak, and the Packers have won four of their last five games.  Prior to that, Green Bay had lost three consecutive games after opening the season at 6-0.  So it’s apparent that the Packers are a streaky team, and that has coincided with the strength of their schedule.  Two of their last three losses have come on the road to playoff-bound teams Carolina and Denver; the Packers lost those two games by a combined score 66-39.  Their recent three wins have come against also-rans like the Lions, Cowboys, and Raiders.  Green Bay will now face one of the best teams in the league, and the Packers do not match-up well against the Cardinals.  The Packers will have difficulty running the ball in this game, and that means Green Bay will be a one-dimensional passing attack.  Obviously that’s not a bad thing with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but he’ll be throwing on an Arizona secondary that ranks 7th in efficiency and 5th in passer rating allowed.        

Arizona is 12-2 on the season as they’ve combined an explosive offense with a shutdown defense.  The Cardinals have played three of their last four games on the road, so a home game against an elite opponent will have Arizona ready for a peak performance.  The Cardinals are averaging 30.5 points per game on 6.8 yards per play at home this season.  That offense will face a Green Bay defense that allowed 66 points on the road to the Broncos and Panthers.  The Cardinals’ defense has been terrific at home where they are only allowing 19.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Arizona is simply the better team, and they are looking for a big statement win against an elite team, and this game provides them an opportunity for exactly that.  We’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

Cleveland is having another dysfunctional season; the Browns come into this game with an ugly 3-11 record, including a 1-6 mark on the road.  Cleveland once again has no stability at the quarterback position while flip-flopping between Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel.  The latter will finish out the season with McCown out with injury.  Cleveland’s recent road games have been embarrassing; the Browns are winless in their last four away games.  Cleveland’s offense has scored 13 points or less in every one of those games while losing by a combined score of 115-38.  The Browns led 7-0 in Seattle last week after scoring on their opening drive; they proceeded to get out-scored 30-6 the rest of the game.  Overall, Cleveland’s offense is only averaging 18.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Browns’ defense has been atrocious on the road where they are giving up 29.4 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.       

Kansas City is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.  The Chiefs have won six of those games by 10 points or more with their average win coming by an incredible 17.5 points per game.  Kansas City has an excellent rushing offense, and they get a terrific match-up here against Cleveland’s defense.  The Chiefs are averaging 141.4 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush at home this season.  That strong rushing attack will face a horrendous Browns rush defense that ranks 28th in efficiency while giving up 139.7 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush on the road this season.  Kansas City’s defense has also been terrific at home where they are holding opponents to just 17.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Kansas City is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Chiefs in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

New England is 12-2 SU and 7-5 ATS this season.  The Patriots have exceptional offensive numbers this season, but unfortunately for them, key offensive components are out because of injury.  Julien Edelman and Danny Amendola will miss this game in New York.  The Patriots’ defense will also be missing two important pieces in their secondary with Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung out for this game.  New England struggled at home against the Jets in the first meeting; they trailed 20-16 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-23.  The Patriots gave up 25 first downs to New York, and they were out-yarded 372-353 in that game.  In the first meeting, Edelman and Amendola caught 13 passes on 18 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown.  The Patriots’ passing offense will be all Rob Gronkowski now, so the Jets’ defense gets an easier matchup this time around.

New York is finally healthy again, and we’ve seen a much better team on the field in recent weeks.  The Jets come into this game on a 4-game winning streak, so they have plenty of momentum and confidence right now.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game, especially since the Patriots are giving up 121 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush on the road this season.  The Jets average 128.4 yards on the ground per game on 4.2 yards per rush at home, so the match-up is perfect for New York.  In the first meeting, the Jets out-rushed the Patriots 89-16, and that was on the road.  New York’s defense is in excellent current form as they’ve given up a total of 64 points in their last four games.  Overall, the Jets are only giving up 18.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season.  We’ll take the points with New York in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play JETS (+).

Tulsa and Virginia Tech both went 6-6 this season.  Both teams played difficult schedules, so this bowl game is a nice reward which means it should be played fast and loose.  Tulsa’s offense was explosive under head coach Philip Montgomery who was previously Baylor’s offensive coordinator.  Montgomery installed a similar scheme to the one he ran at Baylor, and Tulsa was a scoring machine this year.  The Golden Hurricane averaged 35.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play this season.  Their offense was even better away from home where they averaged 36.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Tulsa scored 40 points or more in six of their twelve games with three of those games coming on the road.  Tulsa will face a Virginia Tech defense that allowed 30 points per game on 6.0 yards per play against the six bowl teams they played this season.  

Virginia Tech’s offensive numbers were skewed this season because starting quarterback Michael Brewer missed five games because of injury.  But over the last five games of the season, the Hokies’ offense averaged 28.4 points per game.  Overall this season, Virginia Tech averaged 29 points per game against a slate of defensive opponents that only allowed 25.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Virginia Tech will face an atrocious Tulsa defense that allowed 38.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Against six bowl teams this season, the Golden Hurricane gave up 45 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play.  Virginia Tech’s offense will face the worst defense they’ve seen all season, and it would be shocking if they didn’t score 40 points or more in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Tulsa and Virginia Tech on Saturday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Southern Mississippi has a strong 9-4 record this season, but the Golden Eagles played an extremely easy schedule.  In fact, Southern Mississippi played the 125th schedule this season compared to Washington who played the 35th toughest schedule in the country this season.  Southern Mississippi is playing in their first bowl game in four years, and their first bowl game under head coach Todd Monken.  Southern Mississippi had solid offensive numbers this season; they averaged 40.6 points per game on 7.0 yards per play.  However, the Golden Eagles played one of the softest slates of defensive opponents in the country; their opponents gave up 32.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles are taking a major step-up in defensive class against Washington in this game, and we expect Southern Mississippi’s offense to get stymied in this game.          

Washington went just 6-6 in the regular season, but as mentioned above, the Huskies played a brutal schedule.  In fact, Washington faced a whopping 10 bowl teams in their twelve games this season.  Three of those opponents have already played their bowl games; they went 2-1 with the offenses scoring a combined 121 points.  Washington’s defense was excellent this season as the Huskies held four opponents to their season-low and second season-low in yards.  Overall, Washington gave up just 17.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 31.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Head coach Chris Petersen had a history of success in bowl games while at Boise State, but last year Washington lost their bowl game in Petersen’s first season.  This is an important game for Petersen and the Washington program, so we expect a motivated effort.  We’ll lay the points with the Huskies in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

10* Play WASHINGTON (-).

San Diego comes into this game off an easy 30-14 home win over Miami last Sunday.  Wins have been few and far between for the Chargers this season, but the team has been competitive as seven of their ten losses have come by single digits.  San Diego lost to Oakland by 8 points (37-29) back in Week 7; the Chargers were 3.5-point home favorites in that game.  Now in the rematch, San Diego is getting 6 points which creates value considering the Chargers have been favored over the Raiders the last six times they’ve played.  Quarterback Philip Rivers is having a pretty good season considering the offense hasn’t been fully healthy.  Overall, Rivers has thrown for 4,287 yards while averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt with a 26/12 touchdown/interception ratio.           

Oakland lost 30-20 at home to Green Bay in their last game.  The Raiders have been in poor current form in the second half of the season.  Oakland is just 2-5 SU over their last seven games with those two wins coming by a combined 6 points.  The Raiders were fortunate to beat Denver eleven days ago; Oakland only had 8 first downs on 126 yards of total offense in that game.  The Raiders’ offense has put-up some big numbers in games this season, but overall, Oakland is only averaging 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Raiders’ defense has been poor all season; they are giving up 28 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home.  These two teams are equal across the board, so we’ll take San Diego plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

Boise State and Northern Illinois had similar records this season; the Broncos went 8-4 while the Huskies went 8-5.  Both teams played extremely easy schedules with Boise State facing the #105 schedule and Northern Illinois facing the #97 schedule.  Boise State’s offenses was terrific this season as they averaged 37.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Broncos’ offense was even better away from home where they averaged 40.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Broncos scored 52 points or more in four games this season.  Northern Illinois’ defense gave up 400 yards per game this season, so it doesn’t make sense that they only allowed 25.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Those numbers don’t jive, and in fact, the Huskies allowed 26 points or more in eight of their twelve games this season.  Against the six bowl teams they faced, the Huskies allowed an average of 197 rushing yards and 202 passing yards per game.

Northern Illinois also has a potent offense that is extremely well-balanced.  Overall this season, the Huskies averaged 33 points per game with 205 rushing yards and 222 passing yards per game.  They put those strong numbers up against a slate of defensive opponents that allowed 29.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Northern Illinois will face a Boise State defense that faced a slew of weak offenses that only averaged 25.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Broncos’ defense will face the best offense they’ve seen all season, and they’ve had trouble against strong rushing offenses.  In three games against bowl teams in which they allowed 150 rushing yards or more, Boise State gave up 52, 31, and 37 points.  We expect a high-scoring game between Boise State and Northern Illinois in this game on Wednesday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Toledo and Temple are evenly matched, so this game should be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  My power ratings make this game a Pick, so there is a bit of value on the underdog; there would be a lot of value on Toledo if the line were to hit +3.  The teams played similar schedules, Toledo #84 and Temple #74, and their overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board.  The Rockets went 9-2 SU and a solid 8-2-1 ATS this season.  Their successful season prompted Iowa State to hire head coach Matt Campbell away.  But Toledo promoted offensive coordinator Jason Candle to replace Campbell, and his hire has been well accepted by the players, especially since he declined an offer to join Campbell at Iowa State.  “A lot of people like coach Candle as the head coach,” running back Terry Swanson said.  “He’s a great guy. I feel like there’s a lot of excitement and hype to him. We just like playing for him.”  Toledo’s offense averaged 35.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play this season, and with Candle still calling the plays, the Rockets’ offense shouldn't skip a beat.  

Temple went 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS on the season.  All three of their losses did come against teams playing in bowl games, but only three of their wins came against bowl teams.  Temple’s offense benefitted from short fields a lot this season.  Despite averaging 30.8 points per game, the Owls only averaged 5.4 yards per play despite facing defenses that allowed 5.7 yards per play.  Temple’s offense declined against tougher competition as well as they averaged 6 points per game less and 0.3 yards per play less against the seven bowl teams they faced.  The Owls have good overall defensive numbers, but they were vulnerable to good rushing attacks.  Toledo averages 211 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush.  Temple went 0-3 SU against bowl teams when allowing 150 rushing yards or more this season.  And those games weren’t even close as Temple lost by a combined score of 92-56.  We’ll take the points with Toledo in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play TOLEDO (+).

Detroit and New Orleans match-up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Lions come into this game off a poor offensive performance in St. Louis last week; they only scored 14 points on 331 yards of total offense.  But Detroit will bounce back with a much better performance tonight, especially since they are facing a New Orleans defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has played well since their bye back in Week 9; he has a terrific 11/2 touchdown/interception ratio in his last five games.  Stafford and the Lions offense will go up against a Saints defense that has allowed 36 touchdown passes this season; the most in the league.  New Orleans has also been gouged on the ground recently as they’ve allowed 367 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per rush over their last three games.  Detroit will be able to move the ball consistently on the ground and thru the air.  

New Orleans’ offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 32.3 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Drew Brees has completed 71.5% of his passes while averaging a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt at home.  Overall, Brees has thrown for 3,794 yards with a 25/11 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Detroit defense that is giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Lions’ secondary is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, so Brees will throw the ball all over the field tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Lions and Saints on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Arizona’s offense has been terrific this season.  The Cardinals’ offense is averaging 31.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 23 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Arizona has taken their offense on the road as well; the Cardinals are averaging 31.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 64.5% (292-453) of his passes for 4,003 yards with a terrific 31/9 touchdown/interception ratio.  Palmer is averaging a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll throw all over an Eagles defense that has given up 19 touchdown passes in their last six games. 

Philadelphia’s offense is starting to come around with Sam Bradford under center.  The Eagles have picked up the pace in recent games; they’ve scored 58 points in their last two games.  The Eagles have scored 23 points or more in seven games this season.  Arizona’s defense has faced three pedestrian offenses that can only run the football in their last three games; the Cardinals held the 49ers to 13 points, the Rams to 3 points, and the Vikings to 20 points last week.  Now Arizona will face an up-tempo offense on the road which makes them vulnerable.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cardinals and Eagles on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Cincinnati comes into this game off a 33-20 home loss to Pittsburgh last week.  We played against the Bengals in that game, so that loss is easy to excuse.  Cincinnati was in a terrible situational spot, and after losing quarterback Andy Dalton to a broken thumb in the first quarter, the game just snowballed out of control.  Off that defeat, the Bengals are in a nice bounce back spot against one of the worst teams in the NFL.  Quarterback A.J. McCarron played well despite being thrown into the fire.  McCarron had to throw the ball a lot (32 pass attempts) because Cincinnati trailed for every minute of the game.  He was decent while completing 22 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns.  This game will play out differently as the Bengals will lean heavily on their running game which will take the pressure off McCarron.  Cincinnati will run all over a San Francisco defense that ranks 30th in rush defense efficiency; the 49ers gave up 223 rushing yards on 6.8 yards per rush to the Browns last week.

San Francisco returns home off back-to-back road games in which they went 1-1.  The 49ers are just 4-9 on the season with their lone win against a winning team coming way back in Week 1 against the Vikings.  San Francisco’s offense is terrible as they are only averaging 14.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 21.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The 49ers will face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing just 17.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season.  In five games with quarterback Blaine Gabbert, San Francisco has scored 20 points or less in every game while only averaging 14.6 points per game.  Cincinnati is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Denver never should have lost at home to the Raiders last week.  The Broncos held Oakland to just 8 first downs and 126 yards of total offense; Denver lead 12-0 at the half as well.  The Broncos held a 36-24 time of possession edge, but two lost fumbles and an 0-3 in the red zone did them in.  We are willing to forgive that result as Denver was in a natural letdown spot in that game.  Now on the road in Pittsburgh, the Broncos are severely undervalued despite being in a prime bounce back spot.  The pointspread on this game makes little sense; my power ratings only make the Steelers a 4-point favorite.  Denver’s defense matches-up extremely well with the Pittsburgh offense.  The Broncos have the #3 rush defense in efficiency, so the Steelers will not be able to run the ball with consistency in this game.  That will make them one-dimensional to the pass against a Denver secondary that ranks #1 in pass defense efficiency.  Overall, Denver’s defense is only allowing 17.3 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  

Pittsburgh was in an excellent spot last week in Cincinnati, and we won a Best Bet selection on the Steelers in their easy 33-20 win.  However, we are going against Pittsburgh this week as they are now in a terrible situational spot.  The Steelers are set to regress after back-to-back monster games in which they led by double digits for the majority of the games.  Pittsburgh is also taking a major step-up in defensive class against Denver after QB Ben Roethlisberger had the luxury of playing poor defenses like the 49ers, Colts, Raiders, and Browns.  Pittsburgh’s defense is vulnerable as they are giving up 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.8 yards per play this season.  Denver’s offense has actually played better on the road where they are averaging 22.1 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Denver is in a terrific bounce back spot, and they are catching Pittsburgh at the perfect time.  We’ll take the points with the Broncos in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play BRONCOS (+).

Atlanta has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The Falcons opened the season with a perfect 5-0 record, and they were 6-1 after their first seven games.  But Atlanta has gone winless since, and they come into this game riding a 6-game losing streak.  The Falcons’ offense bottomed out last week in Carolina when they got shutout; Atlanta has scored 21 points or less in eight consecutive games.  However, this game against Jacksonville provides the Atlanta offense with a fantastic opportunity to break out in a major way.  Despite their scoring struggles, Atlanta is still averaging a respectable 5.7 yards per play this season.  QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 3,705 yards with 17 touchdown passes on the season.  Ryan gets an ideal matchup in this game as the Jaguars rank 27th in pass defense efficiency.  Overall, Jacksonville’s defense is giving up 27.5 points per game versus offenses that only average 22.7 points per game.   

Jacksonville has an exciting, young and explosive offense that should be one of the best in the NFL in the next couple of years.  The Jaguars are averaging 25.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Over their last three games, Jacksonville has scored 115 points.  The Jaguars have scored 22 points or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  Quarterback Blake Bortles is have a terrific season; he has thrown for 3,524 yards with a 30/13 touchdown/interception ratio.  He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his last nine games.  Bortles and the Jacksonville offense will face a terrible Atlanta defense that is allowing 23.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road this season.  The Falcons rank 24th in pass defense efficiency, and they are dead last in the league in sacks.  That combination will allow Bortles to throw the ball all over an Atlanta secondary that is giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt on the road.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Falcons and Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Louisiana Tech and Arkansas State are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Saturday night.  Louisiana Tech has a potent offense that averaged 36.7 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Bulldogs were well-balanced as they ran for 154 yards and threw for 311 yards per game this season.  Louisiana Tech will be facing a poor Arkansas State defense that allowed 33.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play away from home this season.  Overall, the Red Wolves allowed 28.8 points per game against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 26.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  Against the four bowl teams they faced this season, Arkansas State allowed 38 points on 486 yards of offense per game.     

Arkansas State also had a very good offense this season.  The Red Wolves averaged 41 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 33.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Like Louisiana Tech, the Red Wolves were extremely well-balanced as they ran for 236 yards and threw for 212 yards per game this season.  Louisiana Tech’s defense played below average football this season as the Bulldogs gave up 31.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play away from home.  Against the five bowl teams they faced this season, Louisiana Tech allowed 40 points on 471 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech on Saturday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.