Pittsburgh was one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs, and after last week’s 30-12 home win over Miami, the Steelers are on an 8-game winning streak.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been outstanding recently as they’ve scored 24 points or more in nine consecutive games.  Overall, the Steelers’ offense is averaging 25.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense got much better as the season went on, and in fact, the Steelers have held six of their last eight opponents to 20 points or less.  Overall, the Steelers’ defense is only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play on the road this season.  

Kansas City began the season at just 2-2, but since their bye week they’ve gone 10-2 SU.  However, only three of those wins came against playoff teams, and two of those wins were against the Raiders.  The Chiefs’ offense was also fortunate in facing a slew of terrible defenses during that stretch.  That won’t be the case tonight against the tough and physical Pittsburgh defense.  Kansas City’s offense has barely played above average football this season.  The Chiefs are averaging 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Kansas City finished their season by scoring 70 total points against the Broncos and Chargers.  Prior to those two games, the Chiefs scored 21 points or less in five of their previous seven games.  Pittsburgh is simply the better team, so we’ll take the Steelers plus the points in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play STEELERS (+).

Seattle and Atlanta match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.  Seattle hits the road after their 26-6 home win over Detroit last week.  The Seahawks have scored 24 points or more in four straight games, and in five of their last six games overall.  Seattle will now face an Atlanta defense that gives up 25.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Falcons’ defense has been even worse at home where they are giving up 27.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Seattle will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 26 points on just 333 yards of total offense.

Atlanta’s offense has been explosive all season.  The Falcons are averaging 33.7 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Atlanta has been even better at home where they are averaging 35 points per game on a whopping 7.2 yards per play.  The Falcons will now face a Seattle defense that has allowed 23 points or more in four of their last five road games.  Against three good quarterbacks (Brees, Brady, and Rodgers) on the road, Seattle’s defense gave up 25, 24, and 38 points.  Atlanta scored 24 points on just 362 yards of offense in the first meeting in Seattle.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Seahawks and Falcons on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Clemson and Alabama will meet once again for the National Title; the Crimson Tide won 45-40 last year.  Clemson had a surprising season by going 13-1.  The Tigers were projected to regress after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 14-1 team.  Clemson certainly has a terrific team, but this is a poor matchup for them against Alabama.  Clemson’s offense faced defenses that gave up 26.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Tigers will now face an Alabama defense that only gave up 11.4 points per game on 3.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 30.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide defense was also stout away from home where they gave up just 16 points per game on 4.1 yards per play.  While it’s true Clemson gave Alabama all they could handle in last year’s game, the Tigers still trailed by 12 points with less than 15 seconds to play before scoring a spread-covering touchdown.

Alabama is a perfect 14-0 SU this season with their closest game being a 5-point win over Mississippi way back in Week 3.  The Rebels were the only team to beat Alabama the previous season as well.  Thirteen of their fourteen wins this season have come by 10 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 27.9 points per game.  Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 248.8 yards per game on the ground and 212.1 yards per game thru the air.  Overall, Alabama averaged 39.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 25.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in the championship game on Monday night.

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

New York quietly went 11-5 SU during the regular season, and they’ve gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games.  Three of New York’s five losses this season have come by 7 points or less, so they’ve been competitive in just about every games they’ve played.  New York’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 47 total points in their past four games.  Overall, the Giants’ defense is only allowing 17.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  New York’s offense has been underwhelming, but they are taking a big step-down in class versus the Green Bay defense in this game.

Green Bay came on strong down the stretch as they won their last six games of the regular season.  However, the Packers’ offense was fortunate to face several weak defensive teams during that stretch.  That won’t be the case this afternoon against a stout New York defense.  The Packers have won a lot of close games this season, and in fact, six of their wins have come by 8 points or less, including two of their last three wins.  Green Bay’s defense has been poor all season as they are giving up 24.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average just 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  This should be a close game throughout, so we’ll take New York plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play GIANTS (+).

Miami and Pittsburgh match up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  Miami has scored 108 total points in their last four games, so they come into this game in excellent current form.  Quarterback Matt Moore has plenty of experience, and we haven’t seen much drop-off in production since he took over for the injured Ryan Tannehill.  Overall this season, the Dolphins’ offense is averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Dolphins will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when Miami scored 30 points on 474 yards of offense.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.

Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more in eight straight games.  Pittsburgh is finally healthy, and overall, the Steelers are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  In the first meeting versus Miami, the Steelers only scored 15 points on 297 yards of total offense.  However, QB Ben Roethlisberger had a below average game as he only completed 55.9% (19-for-34) of his passes with two interceptions.  Roethlisberger was playing hurt in that game, and since he always plays better at home, expect a much better performance by the entire Pittsburgh offense in the second meeting today.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Dolphins and Steelers on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami will hit the road for their playoff game after losing 35-14 at home to New England last Sunday afternoon.  Despite that loss, Miami has gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games while playing two different quarterbacks.  Matt Moore has plenty of experience, and we haven’t seen much drop-off in production since he took over for the injured Ryan Tannehill.  Overall this season, the Dolphins’ offense is averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Dolphins will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s mediocre defense just like Miami did in the first meeting this season when they scored 30 points on 474 yards of offense.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.

Pittsburgh has bounced back strong since losing their first two games after their bye back in Week 8.  The Steelers have won seven consecutive games since then, but their last four wins have all come by 7 points or less.  Not only that, but six of Pittsburgh’s seven wins also came against non-playoff teams.  The Steelers’ defense has given up 20 points or more in each of their past four games despite playing bad offenses like the Browns, Bengals, and Ravens during that stretch.  Overall, Pittsburgh’s defense has faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 22.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  We’ll take Miami plus the generous points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play DOLPHINS (+).

Detroit and Seattle match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday night.  Detroit’s offense has underachieved for most of the season, but for them to have any chance to beat Seattle, their offense must be aggressive in the passing game.  Detroit figures to be playing this game from behind, and that will force the Lions’ offense to open things up.  Detroit played in chase mode in their last two games and they scored 21 points on the Cowboys and 24 points on the Packers.  Detroit has scored 20 points or more in nine of their last twelve games overall, and if they reach that number tonight, there’s an excellent chance this game goes well Over the posted total.  The Lions are catching a reeling Seattle defense that has given up 23 points or more in three of their last four games. 

Seattle returns home after playing their season finale in San Francisco last week.  Seattle’s offense has been much better at home this season.  The Seahawks are only averaging 22.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play overall.  But at home, Seattle is averaging 28.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Seahawks have scored 24 points or more in seven straight home games this season, and there’s no reason for that streak not to continue tonight.  Seattle will now face a Detroit defense that gives up 24.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Lions and Seahawks on Saturday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Western Michigan and Wisconsin matchup well for a high-scoring game on Monday afternoon.  Overall this season, Western Michigan averaged 43.5 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus defenses that gave up just 31.0 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Western Michigan actually scored more points than their seasonal average in seven of their thirteen games, and they scored 22 points or more in every game this season.  The Broncos were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 237 yards per game and threw for 260 yards per game.  Wisconsin’s defense only faced one similar offense this season, and they gave up 30 points on 411 yards of total offense to the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin’s offense averaged 28.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 24.1 points per game on 5.2 yards per play this year.  The Badgers’ offense really came alive down the stretch as they scored 31 points or more in their last four games.  Overall, Wisconsin scored 30 points or more in six of their games this season.  Western Michigan’s defense will be in for a long game against Wisconsin because the Broncos are not used to facing teams in the MAC that are built like the Badgers.  Against the five bowl teams they faced this season, Western Michigan’s defense gave up 24 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Overall this season, the Broncos allowed 5.8 yards per play versus a weak schedule of opponents that averaged just 5.5 yppl.  Look for a high-scoring Cotton Bowl between Western Michigan and Wisconsin on Monday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Iowa went 8-4 SU this season with three of their losses coming by 8 points or less.  The Hawkeyes played a tough schedule, facing seven teams that made a bowl game.  Iowa held up very well against those opponents.  Overall, Iowa’s offense averaged 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Hawkeyes were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 172 yards per game and threw for 161 yards per game.  Iowa’s offense also travelled well as they averaged 23.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season, going 4-1 SU in those games.

Florida also had an 8-4 SU record this season.  The Gators lost their last two games by a combined score of 85-29 because they were decimated by injuries.  Florida’s offense underachieved all season as they only averaged 23.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 26.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Florida will now face an Iowa defense that only gave up 17.9 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this year.  My power ratings actually make Iowa -1 in this game, so getting the Hawkeyes as an underdog presents solid value.  We’ll take the points with Iowa this Outback Bowl on Monday afternoon.

10* Play IOWA (+).

Green Bay and Detroit match-up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday night.  The Packers are averaging 26.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Lions' defense is permitting a weak 6.0 yards per play this season versus opponents that average just 5.6 yppl overall.  Green Bay has scored 106 total points in their past three games, so they come into this game in excellent current form.  The Packers scored 34 points against Detroit in the first meeting this season.  They did that on just 324 yards of total offense while having the ball for less than 25 minutes.

Detroit returns home off back-to-back road games where their offense scored a total of just 27 points.  The Lions have actually played three of their last four games on the road, so a home game will now bring out the best in their offense.  Over their past six home games, Detroit is averaging 22.8 points per game while scoring 24 points or more in three of those games.  The Lions will have success against a Green Bay defense that is allowing an awful 28.9 points per game on 6.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Look for another high-scoring game between the Packers and Lions on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

New Orleans is just 7-8 SU on the season, but the Saints have been playing their best football as of late.  New Orleans has gone 3-2 SU over their last five games with one of their losses coming by just 5 points.  The Saints’ offense has been terrific this season; New Orleans is averaging 29.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 23.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 32 points on 474 yards of offense.  Atlanta’s defense is giving up 27.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.

Atlanta has bounced back strong since their 29-28 home loss to Kansas City four weeks ago.  In their last three games, the Falcons beat the Rams by 28 points (42-14), they beat the 49ers by 28 points (41-13), and last week they beat the Panthers by 17 points (33-16).  However, those three dominating wins came against three of the worst offensive teams in the league.  Atlanta will now face the potent New Orleans offense, so the Falcons' defense will likely have a weak game.  Overall, Atlanta’s defense is giving up 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  This is a bad situational spot for the Falcons to be laying more than a touchdown, and the line is inflated as New Orleans was a 3-point favorite in the earlier meeting this season.  We’ll take the value with the Saints in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SAINTS (+).

New Orleans and Atlanta match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  New Orleans has scored 23 points or more in ten of their fifteen games this season.  The Saints have scored 79 total points in their last two games, so they come into this game in excellent current form.  Overall, New Orleans’ offense is averaging 29.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  The Saints have been good on the road where they are averaging 27.0 points per game.  New Orleans will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when the Saints scored 32 points on 474 yards of offense.  Atlanta’s defense is giving up 27.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.

Atlanta returns home for their season finale in a game they need to win in order to secure the #2 spot in the NFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs.  Atlanta’s offense has been explosive all season.  The Falcons are averaging 33.5 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Atlanta has been even better at home where they are averaging 34.6 points per game on 7.0 yards per play.  The Falcons will now face a New Orleans defense that gives up 27.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Atlanta scored 45 points on 442 yards of offense in the first meeting.  Look for another high-scoring game between the Saints and Falcons on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Ohio State went 11-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Penn State.  Ohio State played a brutal schedule this season while facing nine teams that also made a bowl game.  Overall, the Buckeyes’ offense averaged 42.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 26.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Ohio State owns a potent rushing attack that averaged 258.3 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush.  They put those numbers up against defenses that only gave up 164.5 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  In four games in which Clemson’s defense gave up 150 rushing yards or more, they allowed 36, 34, and 43 points in three games.  They lost to Pittsburgh, and were fortunate in coming back from fourth quarter deficits against Florida State and Louisville.

Clemson had another strong season by going 12-1 SU, but as mentioned above, they were extremely fortunate not to have more losses.  The Tigers certainly have a terrific team, but this is a poor matchup for them against Ohio State.  Clemson’s offense faced defenses that gave up 27.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Tigers will will now face an Ohio State defense that only gave up 14.2 points per game on 4.3 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 30.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  My power ratings make Ohio State -3.5 over Clemson, so laying less than a field goal with the Buckeyes presents good value in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Washington went 12-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming against USC who closed the season by winning eight consecutive games.  Washington’s offense averaged 44.5 points per game on 7.1 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 33 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Huskies were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 210 yards per game and threw for 267.2 yards per game.  Washington’s offense travelled well, and they actually averaged more points per game (48) and more yards per play (7.6) than their overall season averages.  The Huskies are led by shrewd head coach Chris Petersen who has experience knocking off big name teams in bowl games. 

Alabama steamrolled their opponents en route to a perfect 13-0 regular season.  There’s no question that Alabama has the most talented team in the country.  However, the pointspread on this game is simply way too high.  My power ratings only make Alabama -10, so there’s a lot of value in taking Washington in this game.  Alabama’s offense faced defenses that gave up 26 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide will will now face a Washington defense that only gave up 17.2 points per game on 4.6 yards per play this season.  Washington is plenty capable of keeping this game close throughout, so we’ll take the points with the Huskies on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WASHINGTON (+).

Florida State went 9-3 SU this season with their three losses coming against Louisville, North Carolina, and Clemson.  The Seminoles blew leads late in the fourth quarter against the Tar Heels and Tigers, and they only lost those two games by a combined 5 points.  Florida State should be an 11-1 team.  Florida State played a brutal schedule this season while facing nine teams that also made a bowl game.  Five of those teams have already played, and they’ve gone a perfect 5-0 in their bowl games.  Overall, Florida State’s offense averaged 35.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 27.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Seminoles were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 206.7 yards per game and threw for 267.6 yards per game.  Florida State’s offense also travelled well as they averaged 34.8 points per game on 6.5 yards per play on the road this season. 

Michigan had a strong 10-2 SU record on the season, and many believe they were a year too early.  The Wolverines were in the hunt for the playoffs, but their gut-wrenching loss in overtime at Ohio State kept them out.  There’s no question that Michigan has a terrific team, but the Wolverines played a relatively easy schedule expect for their games against Ohio State and Wisconsin.  Michigan only beat Wisconsin 14-7 on their home field and lost against the Buckeyes.  The Wolverines’ defense was fantastic this season, but they are taking a major step-up in class against the Florida State offense in this game.  We’ll take the points with Florida State in this game on Friday night.  

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

Nebraska and Tennessee matchup well for a high-scoring game on Friday afternoon.  Nebraska will likely start senior Ryker Fyfe in place of injured Tommy Armstrong, but we don’t expect much drop off in production.  Overall this season, Nebraska only averaged 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  However, the Cornhuskers faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only gave up 27.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Nebraska actually scored more points than their seasonal average in seven of their twelve games, so it’s clear that the 30 total points they scored against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa skewed their stats.  Nebraska is taking a major step-down in defensive class against Tennessee in this game.  The Volunteers’ defense was horrendous away from home where they allowed 33.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.

Tennessee’s offenses was terrific this season as they averaged 36.2 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 25.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Volunteers’ offense was even good away from home where they averaged 34.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Tennessee scored 38 points or more in six of their twelve games this season.  Nebraska’s defense will be in for a long game against Tennessee.  The Cornhuskers faced the slow and plodding offenses of the Big 10, but now they will face the speed of a powerful SEC offense.  Despite facing weak offenses, Nebraska’s defense was terrible on the road where they gave up 32 points per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Nebraska and Tennessee on Friday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma State went 9-3 SU this season with their three losses coming against Central Michigan, Baylor, and Oklahoma.  That loss to Central Michigan came on a fluky play at the buzzer, and it should not have counted.  The Cowboys played a tough schedule this season while facing seven teams that also made a bowl game.  And Oklahoma State held up very well against those opponents.  Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense averaged 38.7 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 33.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 170 yards per game and threw for 322.5 yards per game.  Oklahoma State’s offense also travelled well as they averaged 32.4 points per game on 6.7 yards per play on the road this season. 

Colorado has a strong 10-3 record on the season, but the Buffaloes played a relatively easy schedule outside of the three teams they lost to.  Colorado’s offense played a terrible slate of opposing defenses, and they just barely played above average football.  The Buffaloes averaged 32.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Colorado will now face an Oklahoma State defense that only gave up 27.1 points per game on the road this season.  My power ratings made this game a Pick, so getting a full field goal with Oklahoma State presents some excellent value.  We’ll take the points with the Cowboys in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (+).

West Virginia has a strong 10-2 record on the season, but the Mountaineers played a relatively easy schedule.  Both of their games against better opponents resulted in blowout losses; Oklahoma State beat them 37-20 and Oklahoma beat them 56-28.  West Virginia played four other teams that made bowl games; BYU, Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor with the latter three all opening as underdogs in their post-season games.  West Virginia’s offense played a terrible slate of opposing defenses, and they just barely played above average football.  The Mountaineers averaged 32.6 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 30.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  West Virginia is now taking a major step-up in defensive class against Miami, FL in this game as the Hurricanes only give up 18.9 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.     

Miami went 8-4 SU in their first season under head coach Mark Richt.  They could have had a much better record as three of their four losses came by 7 points or less with two of those losses coming by 3 points or less.  The Hurricanes played a brutal schedule this season while facing seven teams that also made a bowl game.  And Miami held up very well against those opponents.  Overall, Miami’s offense averaged 34.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Hurricanes will now face a West Virginia defense that allowed 25 points per game on 5.9 yards per play on the road this season.  Miami is better on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes in this game on Wednesday night.  

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Baylor and Boise State matchup well for a high-scoring game on Tuesday night.  Baylor has a potent offense that is extremely well-balanced.  Overall this season, the Bears averaged 34.9 points per game with 250.2 rushing yards and 273.1 passing yards per game.  They averaged 6.1 yards per play against a collection of defensive opponents that allowed 33.6 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Baylor will now face a Boise State defense that has good seasonal numbers that were obtained against a slew of weak offenses.  The Broncos’ defense will face the best offense they’ve seen all season, and they’ve had trouble against strong rushing offenses.  In five games in which they allowed 200 rushing yards or more, Boise State gave up 25 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Boise State’s offenses was terrific this season as they averaged 35.6 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  The Broncos’ offense was even better away from home where they averaged 38.7 points per game on an incredible 7.7 yards per play.  The Broncos scored 42 points or more in five games this season.  Baylor’s defense gave up 30.4 points per game this season, so it doesn’t make sense that they only allowed 5.5 yards per play.  Those numbers don’t jive, and in fact, the Bears allowed 35 points or more in six of their twelve games this season.  Against the five bowl teams they faced, Baylor gave up 39 points per game while allowing an average of 293 rushing yards and 225 passing yards per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Baylor and Boise State in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Detroit comes into this game with a 9-5 SU record, and the Lions have gone 4-1 SU since their bye week.  Detroit’s lone loss during that stretch came by a score of 17-6 in New York against the Giants last week.  Detroit’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 79 total points in their last five games.  Overall, the Lions’ defense is only giving up 20.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.4 points per game.  Detroit’s offense has been underwhelming, but they won’t be at a disadvantage in this game because it’s projected to be played at an extremely slow pace.

Dallas is having a terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 12-2 SU record with the only team to beat them being the New York Giants.  The Cowboys have won a lot of close games this season, and in fact, seven of their twelve wins have come by 7 points or less, including four of their last five wins.  Dallas’ offense plays at a slow pace as they prefer to run the ball with Ezekiel Elliott behind the NFL’s best offensive line.  That style of play prevents Dallas from winning by big margins, and we expect more of the same against the Lions.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play LIONS (+).

Maryland and Boston College are evenly matched and my power ratings actually make Boston College a 1-point favorite, so there is a bit of value on the underdog.  The teams played similar schedules; Maryland #55 and Boston College #63.  Their overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board as well.  Maryland’s offense underachieved this season as the Terrapins only averaged 25.4 points per game versus defenses that allowed 28.2 points per game.  Maryland’s offense was even worse away from home where they only averaged 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Terrapins will now face a Boston College defense that only allowed 24.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play away from home this season.

Boston College went just 6-6 SU on the season, and blowout losses to Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, and Virginia Tech really skewed their offensive stats.  Against those four teams, the Eagles only averaged 6 points per game on 3.0 yards per play.  In their other eight games, Boston College’s offense averaged 25.6 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Boston College will now face a terrible Maryland defense that gave up 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only averaged 27.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Terrapins’ defense was even worse on the road where they allowed 34.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  We’ll take the points with Boston College in this game on Monday afternoon.

9* Play BOSTON COLLEGE (+).

Baltimore and Pittsburgh match-up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday.  The Ravens’ offense has been in excellent current form over the last three weeks.  Baltimore has scored 23 points or more in all three of those games; they scored a total of 88 points against the Dolphins, Patriots, and Eagles.  Overall, Baltimore’s offense is only averaging 21.9 points per game, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 22.7 points per game.  Baltimore is playing much better football on offense right now, so their seasonal average isn’t a true indicator of how this team is performing right now.

Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more in six straight games.  Pittsburgh is finally healthy, and overall, the Steelers are averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  In the first meeting versus Baltimore, the Steelers only scored 14 points on 277 yards of total offense.  QB Ben Roethlisberger didn’t have his best game either as he only completed just 51.1% (23-45) of his passes with one interception.  Roethlisberger has always played better at home, so expect a much better performance by the entire Pittsburgh offense, especially since Baltimore has given up 56 total points in their last two games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Ravens and Steelers on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Middle Tennessee State and Hawaii were all offense and no defense this season.  The Blue Raiders averaged 40.1 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 34.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  The Blue Raiders also scored 34.7 points per game on the road, so their offense travelled well this season.  Middle Tennessee State will score at will on a terrible Hawaii defense that gave up 37.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play. 

Hawaii went just 6-7 on the season, and in a normal year, the Rainbow Warriors would not be playing in a bowl game.  But without enough 6-win qualifiers, Hawaii was chosen to play in this game on their home field.  Hawaii’s offense was significantly better at home where they averaged 33.3 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  They were well-balanced in those games while averaging 212.5 yards per game on the ground and 208.5 yards per game thru the air.  Hawaii will now face a terrible Middle Tennessee State defense that allowed 34.4 points per game versus offenses that only averaged 27.1 points per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Middle Tennessee State and Hawaii in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Indianapolis and Oakland match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  Indianapolis has scored 23 points or more in ten of their thirteen games with Andrew Luck under center.  The Colts have scored 92 total points in their last three games, so they come into this game in excellent current form.  Overall, Indianapolis’ offense is averaging 25.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Colts have been even better on the road where they are averaging 30 points per game.  Indianapolis will now face an Oakland defense that is allowing 28 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play at home this season.

Oakland returns home off back-to-back poor offensive games; they scored just 13 points in Kansas City and just 19 points in San Diego last week.  Prior to those two poor outputs, the Oakland offense had averaged 32.2 points per game over their previous six games.  Oakland’s offense is averaging 29.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.  The Raiders will face an Indianapolis offense that gives up 24.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Colts and Raiders on Saturday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta has bounced back strong after their 29-28 home loss to Kansas City three weeks ago.  In their last two games, the Falcons beat the Rams by 28 points (42-14) and they also beat the 49ers by 28 points (41-13).  However, both of those dominating wins came against two of the worst teams in the league who have also quit on the season.  Off back-to-back blowout wins, we expect Atlanta to regress in this game, especially since they have to hit the road and play outside in the elements while laying points into a divisional opponent.  Atlanta certainly has a strong offensive team, but the Falcons have been vulnerable on defense all season long.  Atlanta’s defense is giving up 25.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Carolina is just 6-8 on the season, but the Panthers have been playing their best football as of late.  Since their bye week, Carolina has gone 5-3 SU with two of their losses coming by just 3 points apiece.  The Panthers have played three of their last four games on the road, so this will be just their second home game since November 27th.  Carolina’s offense is averaging 24.1 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game.  The Panthers will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 33 points on 378 yards of offense despite losing Cam Newton to a concussion.  This is a bad situational spot for the Falcons to be laying points, so we’ll take the Panthers in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

Louisiana Tech and Navy are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Friday afternoon.  Louisiana Tech has a potent offense that averaged 44 points per game on a whopping 7.6 yards per play this season.  The Bulldogs were well-balanced as they ran for 156.2 yards and threw for 359.8 yards per game this season.  Louisiana Tech will be facing a poor Navy defense that allowed 29.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, Navy allowed 35 points on 470 yards of offense while giving up 6.6 yards per play.   

Navy’s offense averaged 37.4 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 29.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Navy is a running team that averaged 310.9 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush this season.  Louisiana Tech’s defense played below average football as the Bulldogs gave up 32.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, Louisiana Tech allowed 38 points on 431 yards of offense per game.  Navy did lose their starting quarterback prior to their last game against Army, but with extra time to prepare, we expect minimal drop off in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Louisiana Tech and Navy on Friday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Eastern Michigan was a much improved team this season, especially on the offensive side of the football.  The Eagles averaged 30.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 31.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Eagles were well-balanced as they ran for 158.2 yards and threw for 295.7 yards per game this season.  Eastern Michigan will be facing a poor Old Dominion defense that allowed 33.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play away from home.  Against the five bowl teams they faced, the Monarchs gave up 39 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.

Old Dominion has an explosive offense that averaged 36 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 32.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Monarchs were also a well-balanced offense as they ran for 199.1 yards and threw for 237.8 yards per game this season.  Old Dominion’s offense will score at will on a terrible Eastern Michigan defense that got shredded all season long.  The Eagles gave up 30.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 28.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  On the road, Eastern Michigan allowed 35.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion on Friday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Colorado State went 7-5 on the season, but they needed to win four of their last five games to become bowl eligible.  The Rams went just 3-5 SU against other bowl teams, and they lost those five games by an average of 14.6 points per game.  Colorado State’s three wins against bowl teams came against UTSA and New Mexico who played each other, and San Diego State who beat a disinterested Houston team.  Colorado State’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak group of defenses that gave up 29.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Idaho went 8-4 during the regular season, and they played a much tougher schedule than Colorado State.  Two of the Vandals’ four losses came against Washington and Washington State; the Huskies are in the playoffs while the Cougars will play in the Holiday Bowl.  Idaho played average offense this season, but the Vandals will face a poor Colorado State defense that gave up 33 points per game on 424 yards while allowing 6.1 yards per play versus the eight bowl teams they faced.  With this game in their home state and against a team that shouldn’t be laying this many points into any team, we’ll take Idaho plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play IDAHO (+).

Wyoming has a strong 8-5 record this season, but the Cowboys played an extremely easy schedule.  In fact, Wyoming played the 54th easiest schedule this season, and they got most of their wins at home.  Wyoming went 6-1 SU at home, but just 2-4 SU on the road where they lost by an average of 15.5 points per game.  The Cowboys had solid offensive numbers; they averaged 37.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  However, Wyoming played a weak slate of opposing defenses that gave up 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys are now taking a major step-up in defensive class against BYU in this game as the Cougars’ defense only gives up 19.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.     

BYU went 8-4 in the regular season, but they could have had a much better record as all four of their losses came by a combined 8 points with each loss coming by 3 points or less.  The Cougars lost quarterback Taysom Hill in their season finale, but Tanner Mangum has plenty of experience while filling in for the often injured Hill over the last couple of seasons.  BYU’s offense won’t skip a beat with Mangum under center, and most say he’s a much better passer than Hill, so the Cougars will do what they’ve done all year.  Overall, BYU’s offense is averaging 30.0 points per game, and they will face a Wyoming defense that allowed 42.5 points per game on a whopping 7.2 yards per play on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with BYU in this game on Wednesday night.  

9* Play BYU (-).

Carolina and Washington match-up well for a high-scoring game on Monday night.  Aside from their 7-point debacle in Seattle two weeks ago, the Carolina offense has been in excellent current form.  The Panthers have scored 23 points or more in three of their last four games; they scored a total of 83 points in those three games.  Overall, Carolina’s offense is averaging a respectable 23.9 points per game versus a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.5 points per game.  The Panthers will now face a Washington defense that is giving up 24.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

Washington has scored 23 points or more in ten of their thirteen games this season.  Overall, Washington is averaging 25.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Redskins’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 144 points in their past five games.  Washington’s offense will now face a Carolina defense that has been terrible on the road this season.  The Panthers are giving up 32.5 points per game on a whopping 6.8 yards per play away from home.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Panthers and Redskins on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Tampa Bay and Dallas match-up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday night.  The Buccaneers are averaging a respectable 22.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Tampa Bay has scored 81 total points in their last three road games compared to just 66 total points in their last three home games.  Those numbers show the Buccaneers have been a better offense on the road recently, and they are certainly going to need to trade points if they want any shot at winning in Dallas tonight.

Dallas’ offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Cowboys are averaging 27.5 points per game on a terrific 6.2 yards per play.  Those numbers aren’t a fluke considering Dallas’ overall average of 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play.  The Cowboys will have success against a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing 22.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Buccaneers and Cowboys on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Oakland had their 6-game winning streak snapped in their 21-13 loss in Kansas City last Thursday night.  And while they do have some extra rest coming into this game, we expect the Raiders to lose once again.  Oakland has good offensive numbers this season, but they’ve faced a collection of bad defenses.  Oakland’s own defense has had trouble stopping their opponents consistently, so the Raiders usually play in high-scoring games.  Overall, the Raiders’ defense is giving up 24.6 points per game on a whopping 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

San Diego is just 5-8 on the season, but the Chargers should have a much better record.  Their first four losses all could have been wins, but they lost each one of those games late after having fourth quarter leads.  San Diego’s offense is averaging 26.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will take advantage of Oakland’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 31 points on 423 yards of offense.  The Chargers are just as good as the Raiders, so we’ll take the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

New England is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for their game in Denver on Sunday afternoon.  The Patriots just played at home on Monday night when they beat the Baltimore Ravens 30-23.  New England will now hit the road on a short week while playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The Patriots’ offense is also short-handed without Rob Gronkowski, and their inability to go deep now is a major concern in this game, especially against the stout Denver secondary.  New England certainly has a terrific offense, but they will face a Denver defense that is only giving up 20.2 points per game on 4.7 yards per play at home this season.

Denver returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 13-10 loss in Tennessee.  In fact, the Broncos have played four of their last five games on the road with their lone home game during that stretch being a 30-27 loss to the Chiefs in overtime.  Denver has an exceptional defense as noted above.  Overall, the Broncos are only giving up 18.6 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver’s offense has also been much better at home where they are averaging 25.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll take Denver plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BRONCOS (+).

Pittsburgh is playing their best football of the season right now.  The Steelers head into Cincinnati on a 4-game winning streak while out-scoring their opponents by a combined 103-50.  Pittsburgh is finally healthy, and overall, the Steelers are averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  In the first meeting versus Cincinnati, the Steelers scored 24 points on 374 yards of total offense.  QB Ben Roethlisberger didn’t have his best game either as he only completed 51.4% (19-37) of his passes with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more in nine of their twelve games with Roethlisberger under center this season.  In seven games in which Cincinnati has given up more than 20 points, the Bengals have gone 1-5-1 SU and 1-6 ATS.   

Cincinnati is just 5-7-1 on the season as they return home off an easy 23-10 win in Cleveland last Sunday.  The Bengals also won easily the week before when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 32-14.  However, both of those teams are struggling mightily right now, and Cincinnati played their two best games of the season.  The Bengals are now taking a major step-up in class against Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati is set to regress off their last two wins.  The Bengals’ offense is only averaging 20.6 points per game versus defenses that allow 22 points per game.  Pittsburgh’s defense is only giving up 19.6 points per game on the road.  Pittsburgh is clearly the better team, so we’ll back the Steelers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Southern Mississippi has a potent offense that averages 33.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play this season.  The Golden Eagles were well-balanced as they ran for 177.8 yards and threw for 294.2 yards per game this season.  Southern Mississippi will be facing a poor Louisiana Lafayette defense that faced an extremely weak slate of opposing offenses this season.  Overall, the Ragin’ Cajuns allowed 25.1 points per game.  But against the two good offenses they faced, Lafayette gave up 45 points to Boise State and 35 points to Georgia.  Southern Mississippi has a much better offense than Georgia, and they are comparable to Boise State, so the Ragin’ Cajuns defense will get exposed in this game.

Louisiana Lafayette’s offense struggled at times this season, but they faced a solid group of defenses.  That won’t be the case in this game as Southern Mississippi has a terrible defense that got shredded all season long.  The Golden Eagles give up 30.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  On the road, the Golden Eagles were absolutely atrocious while allowing 37 points per game on a whopping 7.8 yards per play.  Louisiana Lafayette’s offense did score 30.2 points per game away from home this season, so they are quite capable of taking advantage of the weak Southern Mississippi defense in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Southern Mississippi and Louisiana Lafayette on Saturday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore comes into this game with a 7-5 SU record, but the Ravens have gone 4-1 SU since their bye week.  Baltimore’s lone loss during that stretch came by 10 points (27-17) in Dallas against the Cowboys who are 11-2 SU on the season.  Baltimore’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 68 total points in their last five games.  Overall, the Ravens’ defense is only giving up 17.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Baltimore’s offense has been underwhelming, but they are catching New England’s offense at the right time and the Ravens won’t have to trade points to stay competitive in this game.

New England is having another terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 10-2 SU record.  Unfortunately for the Patriots, they lost their best offensive weapon, tight end Rob Gronkowski, to a back injury.  Gronkowski stretched opposing defenses, and he was New England’s best deep threat.  The Patriots’ offense will now be a one-man show with Julian Edleman, but more importantly for tonight’s game, New England’s offense will be less explosive and rely solely on dink and dunk passes to move the football down the field on the stout Baltimore defense.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Baltimore plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play RAVENS (+).

Dallas comes into tonight’s game with the best record in football at 11-1, but their lone loss of the season came against tonight’s opponent.  The Cowboys lost 20-19 at home to the Giants way back in Week 1, and we expect another close game tonight.  Dallas is led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, and the pressure keeps building as the season goes on.  That has been evident recently as four of Dallas’ last six games have been decided by 6 points or less with two of their road wins during that stretch coming by just 2 and 5 points.  Dallas has blown out the bad teams this season, but they’ve won close games against good teams.   

New York’s 6-game winning streak came to an end with their 24-14 loss in Pittsburgh last week.  But that was a tough spot for the Giants as they were playing on a back-to-back road set.  New York returns home tonight, and we expect a strong bounce back effort.  New York’s offense has struggled at times this season, but they’ve played a tough slate of opposing defenses.  The Giants’ defense has been terrific all season as they are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll take the points with the Giants in a game that will go right down to the wire.

9* Play GIANTS (+).

New Orleans hits the road after a terrible offensive performance at home against the Lions last week.  The Saints scored just 13 points in that loss; it was tied for their lowest scoring game of the season.  The last time they scored 13 points, the Saints scored 32 points in their next game, and we expect a similar outcome in this game.  New Orleans has scored 20 points or more in ten of their twelve games this season.  Overall, the Saints’ offense is averaging 28.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints will now face a Tampa Bay defense that is giving up 25.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season. 

Tampa Bay’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form.  The Buccaneers have scored 24 points or more in five of their last seven games, and 28 points or more in four of those seven games.  Overall, Tampa Bay is averaging 23.1 points per game versus a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Buccaneers’ offense has been much better since their bye week as they are averaging 26.1 points per game over their last seven games.  Tampa Bay will now face a New Orleans defense that is allowing 27.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Saints and Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Arizona snapped their 2-game losing streak with a solid 31-23 win over the Washington Redskins last week.  The Cardinals will now hit the road for a very winnable game in Miami.  Arizona’s last two road games came in Minnesota against a stout defense, and in Atlanta against one of the best offenses in the league.  Those two games were also on back-to-back weeks, so the Cardinals were in tough spots against those opponents.  This game in Miami is a major drop in class for Arizona, so we expect a strong performance.  Arizona’s offense is averaging 23 points per game, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses.  The Cardinals will now face a Miami defense that is giving up 23.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Miami comes into this game off a 38-6 blowout loss in Baltimore last week.  That loss snapped their 6-game winning streak, but we do not expect the Dolphins to bounce back strong off last week’s performance.  Miami’s recent six wins came against a mediocre slate of opponents; three of their last four wins came against the Jets, Rams, and 49ers.  And Miami did not dominate those bad teams as those three wins came by just 7, 4, and 4 points.  Overall, Miami’s offense is only averaging 21.2 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Miami will now face an Arizona defense that only gives up 20.9 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll back Arizona in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

San Diego and Carolina match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  San Diego has scored 21 points or more in eleven of their twelve games this season, and they’ve done that despite missing key personnel on the offensive side of the ball.  The Chargers had a bye recently, so they were able to get some of those players healthy and back on the field.  Overall, San Diego’s offense is averaging 27.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will now face a Carolina defense that has given up 75 total points in their last two games, and overall the Panthers are allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home this season.

Carolina scored 55 total points in their previous two games prior to last Sunday night’s 7-point debacle in Seattle.  The Panthers now return home off that embarrassing performance while taking a big step-down in defensive class.  Carolina’s offense will play much better in this game, especially since they’ll be facing a San Diego defense that is giving up 26.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers have been worse on the road where they’ve given up 27.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Carolina’s offense is averaging a respectable 23.6 points per game versus a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.1 points per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Chargers and Panthers on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Oakland and Kansas City match-up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Chiefs beat the Raiders 26-10 back on October 16th, but that game was played on a muddy field in a driving rain storm.  The minimal offensive output was a direct result of the weather conditions.  Despite that, the two quarterbacks were able to complete 41 passes for 449 total yards thru the air.  While tonight’s game will be played in cold conditions, the ball and the field will be dry.  Oakland is averaging 28.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Raiders’ offense has been just as good on the road where they are averaging 28.3 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.

The Chiefs have scored 26 points or more in five of their last eight games.  Kansas City scored 59 total points in their last two games, and their scoring should continue tonight against a poor Oakland defense.  The Raiders are allowing 24.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Kansas City is averaging 24.0 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Raiders and Chiefs on Thursday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Carolina and Seattle have a history of playing high-scoring games.  In three meetings over the last two years, the teams have combined to score 55, 50, and 48 points.  Tonight’s game shouldn’t be any different.  The Panthers are averaging 25.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that give up 23.9 points per game.  On the road, Carolina is averaging 27.2 points per game.  Seattle does possess a solid defense, but they’ve been vulnerable against good offenses this season.  In recent games against the Falcons, Saints, Bills, and Patriots, the Seahawks gave up 24 points or more to each of those opponents.  

Seattle returns home off an embarrassing 5-point offensive output in Tampa Bay last week.  The Seahawks were pathetic in that game, but we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially on the offensive side of the ball.  Seattle has scored 26 points or more in four of their five home games this season.  Overall at home, the Seahawks are averaging 26.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  They will face a Carolina defense that is giving up 31 points per game on 6.6 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Panthers and Seahawks on Sunday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington has scored 23 points or more in eight of their eleven games this season.  Overall, Washington is averaging 25.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Redskins’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 121 points in their last four games.  Washington’s offense will now face an Arizona defense that is in terrible current form.  The Cardinals have given up 30 points or more in three of their last four games while allowing an average of 29.5 points per game.  Arizona will likely be without safety Tyrann Mathieu who has a shoulder injury, so that opens the field up even more for Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Arizona returns home off back-to-back road losses where their offense underperformed.  The Cardinals scored just 43 total points in those games, but we expect a strong bounce back performance this afternoon.  Arizona is only averaging 22.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play, but they’ve faced defenses that only give up 23.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals will have success against a Washington defense that is allowing 24 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Redskins and Cardinals on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Tampa Bay and San Diego match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Buccaneers have scored 24 points or more in four of their last six games, and 28 points or more in three of those six games.  Overall, Tampa Bay is averaging 22.6 points per game versus a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Buccaneers’ offense has been much better since their bye week as they are averaging 25.8 points per game over their last six games.  Tampa Bay is also going from back-to-back games against strong defenses (Seahawks and Chiefs) to a San Diego defense that is allowing 26.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

San Diego has scored 21 points or more in ten of their eleven games this season, and they’ve done that despite missing key personnel on the offensive side of the ball.  The Chargers had a bye prior to their last game, so they were able to get some of those players healthy and back on the field.  Overall, San Diego’s offense is averaging 28.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will now face a Tampa Bay defense that is giving up 24.0 points per game on 6.1 yards per play and allowed a franchise record 626 total yards versus another AFC West opponent (Oakland) this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Buccaneers and Chargers on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Kansas City comes into this game off a fortunate 30-27 overtime win in Denver last Sunday night.  The Chiefs will now hit the road for the second consecutive week off that draining game in altitude, and we don’t expect their luck to continue in this game.  Don’t be fooled by the 30 points scored by the Chiefs last week; they only had 7 offensive points before scoring the tying touchdown late.  Kansas City scored 20 points or less in their three previous games, and overall, the Chiefs are only averaging 22.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face an Atlanta defense that has given up just 43 total points in their last two games.

Atlanta had a bye prior to their last game, so the Falcons are a much fresher team than Kansas City.  The Falcons waxed Arizona 38-19 last Sunday, so they also had a much easier game than the Chiefs.  Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic all season, especially at home where they are averaging 34.6 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  Kansas City has solid defensive numbers, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense is a major step-up in class for Kansas City’s defense, and the Chiefs’ offense will need to trade points in this game, but they haven’t shown any capability of doing that all season.  Kansas City also has a huge divisional game on deck at home versus Oakland in just four nights.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this non-conference game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play FALCONS (-).

Penn State is one of the hottest teams in the country as they come into tonight’s Big 10 Championship game against Wisconsin on an 8-game winning streak while going 7-0-1 ATS.  The Nittany Lions’ offense has been fantastic this season while averaging 36.6 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 25.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Wisconsin has strong defensive numbers, but they’ve faced offenses that only average 28.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Badgers will now face a Penn State offense that averages 8.5 points per game and 0.8 yards per play more than the offenses Wisconsin has faced this season.

Wisconsin has an identical 10-2 SU record as Penn State.  The Badgers are also on a 6-game winning streak, but their defense has been a bit leaky after giving up 37 points in their last two games.  That doesn’t seem like a lot of points on the surface, but Wisconsin held their previous four opponents to a total of 36 points, including an overtime game.  There’s no denying the fact that Wisconsin has a strong defense, but they are taking a monumental step-up in class against the Penn State offense in this game.  Wisconsin’s offense is only averaging 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.2 yards per play, so they’ve been anything but explosive this season.  Penn State’s defense only gives up 4.8 yards per play.  We’ll take the points with Penn State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play PENN STATE (+).

Dallas will put their 10-game winning streak on the line tonight in Minnesota.  Both teams come into this game with normal rest after playing last Thursday night, so expect this game to be played to true form tonight.  The Cowboys are taking a step-up in defensive class against Minnesota after last facing the leaky Washington defense.  Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott will have a difficult time throwing the ball with any consistency on the fantastic Minnesota secondary.  That will force Dallas to run the ball a lot in this game.  The Cowboys already play a ball control style with running back Ezekiel Elliott, so expect him to get a lot of carries this evening.  Dallas will shorten this game with their style of play, so offensive possessions will be limited.

Minnesota returns home off a 16-13 loss at Detroit.  The Vikings will play this game without their head coach on the sideline.  Mike Zimmer had emergency eye surgery yesterday, so special teams coordinator Mike Priefer will be the interim head coach for this game.  Minnesota’s offense has been awful all season; the Vikings are only averaging 19.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Minnesota will now face a Dallas defense that allows just 19.4 points per game.  The Vikings know their defense will keep them in this game, so a conservative offensive game plan will be seen.  Look for a low-scoring game between the Cowboys and Vikings on Thursday night. 

9* Play UNDER the total.

Green Bay is just 4-6 SU on the season, but five of their losses have come in their last six games.  The Packers are on a 4-game losing streak, and they are playing their third consecutive road game.  Green Bay also got blown out by 18 points (42-24) in Washington in their last game, and that was last Sunday night.  Off that national TV loss, and with everything else listed above, not many will want any part of Green Bay in this game and this line has now become inflated.  The Packers have some things working in their favor that will make them competitive tonight.  Green Bay is averaging 24.7 points per game versus defenses that give up just 23.2 points per game.  The Packers won’t have to trade points tonight as their defense is taking a big step-down in class against the inefficient Philadelphia offense after Green Bay has just faced four straight highly efficient offenses.

Philadelphia returns home off a 26-15 loss in Seattle.  The Eagles are a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season, but that record isn’t as impressive when factoring in the opponents they played.  Philadelphia beat offensively challenged Cleveland and Minnesota at home, so their strong defensive numbers are a bit skewed.  In six games against efficient offenses this season, the Eagles are just 2-4 SU.  Philadelphia’s offense is only averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play, so Green Bay’s defense won’t be as bad tonight as they’ve been in recent games.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Green Bay plus the points in this game on Monday night.

9* Play PACKERS (+).

Kansas City comes into tonight’s game off a bad 19-17 home loss versus the Buccaneers last Sunday.  The Chiefs were 7-point home favorites in that game, and their offensive struggles were on full display.  Kansas City has scored 20 points or less in three consecutive games, and overall, the Chiefs are only averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face a Denver defense that is only giving up 18.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.

Denver comes into this game fresh off their bye, so we expect a strong performance tonight.  The Broncos have won three of their previous four games after losing back-to-back games prior to that.  Denver has an exceptional defense as noted above.  Overall, the Broncos are only giving up 18.9 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Kansas City will have trouble moving the ball consistently, so we’ll back Denver in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

New England and New York match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Patriots have scored 23 points or more in nine of their ten games, and 30 points or more in five of their ten games this season.  Overall, New England is averaging 27.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Patriots’ offense has been even better on the road where they are averaging 30.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  New England will now face a New York defense that is allowing 24.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 20.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. 

New York’s offense has struggled this season, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 20.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Jets come into this game fresh off their bye, so we expect a strong offensive performance this afternoon.  New York will face a New England defense that has faced a terrible group of opposing offenses that only average 21.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Jets’ offense is more than capable of scoring points as prior to their last game, they had scored 23 points or more in three consecutive games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Patriots and Jets on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Carolina comes into this game with a 4-6 SU record, but the Panthers have been a much better team since their bye five weeks ago and they are now an underdog for the first time this season.  Carolina has won three of their last four games with their lone loss coming by just 3 points to the Kansas City Chiefs.  Overall, Carolina’s offense is averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.5 points per game.  On the road, the Panthers have been even better while averaging 26.0 points per game.  Carolina will now face a poor Oakland defense that is giving up 28.0 points per game on a whopping 7.4 yards per play and 9.9 yards per pass at home this season.

Oakland is in a terrible scheduling spot for this game against Carolina.  The Raiders will be playing on a short week after beating the Texans in Mexico on Monday night.  Oakland was clearly a gassed team from the high altitude, and on short rest, we don’t expect the Raiders to be at their best in this game, especially since the Raiders went into their last game off a bye.  Overall, Oakland’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they will now face an improving Carolina defense that has held their last four opponents to 20 points or less.  Carolina is catching Oakland at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Panthers plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

San Diego is just 4-6 on the season, but the Chargers should have a much better record.  Their first four losses all could have been wins, but they lost each one of those games late after having fourth quarter leads.  San Diego has a huge scheduling advantage over Houston in this game.  The Chargers come into this game fresh off their bye while the Texans will be playing on short rest after a game in Mexico on Monday night.  San Diego’s offense is averaging 29.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will take advantage of a Houston defense that was clearly gassed from the high altitude in Mexico.

Houston comes into this game with a 6-4 record, but the Texans may not be as good as their record indicates.  Houston’s offense is only averaging 18.1 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Five of Houston’s six wins this season have come 7 points or less, and that is a clear indication that the Texans are a mediocre team at best.  Their defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Houston’s defense is taking a big step-up in class against the potent San Diego offense.  The Chargers are simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Florida is 8-2 SU on the season, and they come into this game off their biggest win of the year.  The Gators won 16-10 as 14-point road underdogs at LSU last Saturday to clinch their spot in the SEC title game next week.  Florida is in that game regardless of what happens in this game, so we expect a natural letdown to happen, especially considering the Gators are decimated by injuries.  Florida is expected to be without these starters against Florida State: linebackers Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone, safeties Nick Washington and Marcus Maye, defensive end Bryan Cox Jr., quarterback Luke Del Rio and center Cam Dillard.  Florida’s offense is only averaging 25.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 27 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Gators will now face a Florida State defense that only gives up 19 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home.

Florida State comes into this game with an 8-3 record after winning their last two games by a combined score of 90-21.  The Seminoles are averaging 35.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 27.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Florida has strong defensive numbers, but they’ve faced offenses that only average 27 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Florida State’s running game averages 202.9 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.  Florida is allowing 157.8 rushing yards per game on the road, and with their long list of defensive injuries, we expect the Seminoles to dominate this game on the ground.  We’ll lay the points with Florida State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Oregon and Oregon State match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.  Oregon has a potent offense.  The Ducks are averaging 36.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 28.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Oregon will now face an Oregon State defense that has been atrocious this season.  The Beavers are giving up 31.1 points per game versus offenses that average 30.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Oregon scored 52 points on 674 yards of offense against the Beavers last season. 

Oregon State’s offense has sub-par numbers this season, but they’ve played a tough slate of defensive opponents.  The Beavers have faced defenses that only give up 28 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Oregon State will now face a woeful Oregon defense that is giving up 42.1 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 32.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Oregon State scored 42 points on 427 yards of offense against the Ducks last season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Oregon and Oregon State on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

West Virginia comes into this game with an 8-2 SU record, but the Mountaineers are a phony team.  They’ve played an extremely weak schedule, and in the games against decent opposition, the Mountaineers are just 2-2 SU with the two wins coming by a total of 4 points.  West Virginia had a huge home game against Oklahoma last Saturday night, and they proceeded to lose that game by 28 points (56-28).  That demoralizing loss will leave the Mountaineers with a hangover, and the fact that they are laying a full touchdown on the road creates even more value on Iowa State; my power ratings say West Virginia should be just a 3.5-point favorite in this game.  West Virginia’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per game, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.5 points per game.  The Mountaineers will now play an Iowa State defense that is only allowing 25.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play at home.

Iowa State has a poor 3-8 SU record, but the Cyclones have been playing much better football down the stretch.  Iowa State has won their last two games after their offense scored a total of 97 points.  The Cyclones were competitive in four of their previous five losses as well; they lost by 10, 7, 5, and 3 points.  Iowa State’s offense has been fantastic at home all season.  The Cyclones are averaging 37 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play.  West Virginia’s defense has given up 134 total points in their last four games, so they are in poor current form.  We’ll take Iowa State plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play IOWA STATE (+).

Arizona State and Arizona match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  Arizona State has a strong passing offense.  The Sun Devils are averaging 33.2 points per game and 7.5 yards per pass versus defenses that are giving up just 30.9 points per game and 7.0 yards per pass.  Arizona State will face an Arizona defense that is allowing their opponents to score 38.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play, including 8.0 yards per pass.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that average just 30.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play and 7.5 yards per pass.  Arizona State’s offense will be a step-up in class for Arizona’s defense, so expect the Wildcats to give up more than their season average tonight.

Arizona’s offense has struggled this season, but we expect their best offensive performance in this game.  Arizona has faced an extremely tough slate of opposing defenses that have held their opponents to just 24.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Arizona will now face a woeful Arizona State defense that is giving up 38.4 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus offenses that average just 33.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  The Sun Devils give up a terrible 41.4 points per game on 7.0 yards per play on the road.  Arizona’s offense is taking a major step-down in defensive class based on the above numbers.  Look for a high-scoring game between Arizona State and Arizona on Friday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Boise State comes into this game with an impressive 10-1 record, but they’ve played a woeful schedule to say the least.  The Broncos have been 14.5-point road favorites or greater in all five of their away games this season, and that alone speaks volumes about their poor competition.  Boise State is just a single-digit road favorite in this game, and based on my power ratings, they are laying a few points too many.  Overall, Boise State’s offense is averaging 37 points per game on 7.1 yards per play, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 30.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Broncos will now face an Air Force defense that is holding opponents to just 25.8 points per game at home, and just 5.6 yards per play overall. 

Air Force will be the best team Boise State has faced so far this season.  The Falcons own an 8-3 record on the year with all three losses coming by 9 points or less.  Air Force has played three of their last four games on the road, and with this being their season finale at home, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  Air Force is averaging 37.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Falcons average a whopping 382.4 rushing yards per game at home, and since Boise State’s defense is giving up 201.6 rushing yards per game on the road, we expect Air Force to control this game on the ground.  We’ll take Air Force plus the generous points in this game on Friday afternoon.

10* Play AIR FORCE (+).

Washington and Dallas match-up well for a high-scoring game on Thursday.  The Redskins have scored 23 points or more in seven of their ten games this season.  Overall, Washington is averaging 25.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Redskins’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 95 points in their last three games.  Washington scored 23 points on 432 yards of total offense on Dallas’ defense back in their Week 2 matchup.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 28 passes for 364 yards in that game, and now he will face a depleted Dallas secondary that is missing a couple of starters. 

Dallas’ offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Cowboys are averaging 26.8 points per game on a terrific 6.2 yards per play.  Those numbers aren’t a fluke considering Dallas’ overall average of 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys will have success against a Washington defense that is allowing 23.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Redskins and Cowboys on Thursday.  

10* Play OVER the total.

This game will be played in Mexico.  Houston is 6-3 on the season, but all three of their losses have come on the road.  Those defeats came against New England, Minnesota, and Denver.  The Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos are a combined 21-9 SU on the season, and all three teams have excellent defenses.  Houston’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played a tough slate of defenses that are only giving up 22 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  In four games against lesser defenses, Houston has averaged 23.2 points per game.  The Texans are taking a monumental step-down in defensive class against the Raiders in this game, so we expect a solid offensive performance tonight.

Oakland comes into tonight’s game on a 3-game winning streak.  The Raiders scored 30 points or more in all three games, but they played a pair of bad teams in Jacksonville and Tampa Bay.  Oakland has good offensive numbers this season, but they’ve faced a collection of bad defenses that allow 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Raiders will now face a Houston defense that is only giving up 20.9 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  That’s 3.4 points per game and 0.4 yards per play less than what the Oakland offense has faced this season.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Houston plus the points in this game on Monday night.

9* Play TEXANS (+).

Green Bay and Washington match up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday night.  The Packers have scored 23 points or more in seven of their nine games this season.  Overall, Green Bay is averaging 24.8 points per game versus defenses that give up 23.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Packers’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 109 points in their last four games.  Green Bay will now face a poor Washington defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.

Washington’s offense has been fantastic at home this season.  The Redskins are averaging 24.6 points per game on a terrific 6.7 yards per play.  Those numbers aren’t a fluke considering Washington’s overall average of 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play.  The Redskins will have success against a Green Bay defense that is allowing 30.0 points per game on 6.3 yards per play on the road.  Green Bay’s secondary has been terrible on the road where they are allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Redskins on Sunday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Philadelphia got back to their winning ways after defeating the Atlanta Falcons 24-15 last week.  The Eagles had lost their previous two games to the Cowboys and Giants, but those losses came by a combined 11 points.  In fact, all four of the Eagles’ losses this season have come by 7 points or less.  Philadelphia has played above average football on both sides of the ball this season.  The Eagles are averaging 25.1 points per game versus defenses that only give up 23.1 points per game.  Philadelphia’s defense only gives up 17.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Philadelphia has scored 20 points or more in all nine of their games this season, and in the four games in which Seattle has given up more than 20 points, the Seahawks’ three wins have come by 7 points or less.  

Seattle is 6-2-1 on the season as they return home off a high-scoring win in New England last Sunday night.  That was Seattle’s fifth consecutive close game with the average margin of victory only coming by 4 points per game.  The Seahawks have underperformed greatly on the offensive side of the ball this season.  Seattle is only averaging 21.4 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Quarterback Russell Wilson has been playing hurt, and that is having a major impact on Seattle being inefficient on offense.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Philadelphia plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play EAGLES (+).

Tennessee and Indianapolis match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  In the first meeting of the season, these two teams scored a total of 60 points on just 753 yards of total offense.  Tennessee’s offense is averaging 26.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Titans have scored 26 points or more in six straight games, and that streak will continue in this game, especially against a terrible Indianapolis defense.  The Colts are allowing 28.5 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play at home this season.

Indianapolis comes into this game fresh off their bye, so they’ll be ready to roll, especially since their last home game was an embarrassing 30-14 loss to Kansas City.  The Colts have scored 23 points or more in seven of their nine games this season.  Overall, Indianapolis is averaging 26.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 23.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Indianapolis will now face a poor Tennessee defense that is allowing 25.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Titans and Colts on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Buffalo comes into this game fresh off their bye, and since they went into it on a 3-game losing streak, we expect a peak performance against the Bengals.  Buffalo’s offense has been extremely efficient this season.  The Bills are averaging 26.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Cincinnati’s defense is allowing 23.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Buffalo has scored 25 points or more in seven of their nine games this season, and in the seven games in which Cincinnati has given up more than 20 points, the Bengals have gone 1-5-1 SU and 1-6 ATS.   

Cincinnati is just 3-5-1 on the season as they return home off back-to-back road games.  The Bengals played in London three weeks ago, and last week they lost 21-20 in New York to the Giants on Monday night.  Cincinnati is now on a short week while their opponent has had an extra week of rest.  The Bengals’ offense is only averaging 20.8 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.2 points per game.  Buffalo’s defense is only giving up 18.2 points per game on the road.  Buffalo is clearly the better team, so we’ll back the Bills in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (+).

Arkansas comes into this game off a 38-10 blowout home loss to LSU last week.  We won a Best Bet against the Razorbacks in that game, and we’ll go against them once again this week, especially since they are back on the road where they’ve been absolutely terrible this season.  Arkansas has only played three away games, and they are just 1-2 SU with their lone win coming in overtime.  The Razorbacks’ defense is giving up 46.3 points per game on a whopping 8.2 yards per play on the road this season.  Overall, Arkansas has a woeful run defense that has allowed opponents to run for 218 yards per game on 6.3 yards per rush, including an atrocious 368 rushing yards per game (8.8 ypr) on the road.  Their inability to stop the run will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

Mississippi State returns home off a 51-3 blowout loss at Alabama.  That loss was ugly, but Alabama is the best team in the country and the Bulldogs can’t compete with superior teams.  Mississippi State will now play a team on their level, and we expect a strong bounce back performance in this game.  The Bulldogs are averaging 28.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 25.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Mississippi State’s offense is going from facing the best defense in the country to facing one of the worst defenses in the SEC.  We’ll lay the points with Mississippi State on Saturday night.  

10* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (-).

Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 7-3 SU record, but they are just 4-6 ATS, including a 3-game losing streak against the spread.  The Hokies lost to Georgia Tech last week as 14-point home favorites.  That’s a terrible loss, and now they are stepping up in class while playing their third road game over the last four weeks.  Virginia Tech’s offense is in terrible current form as they’ve only scored 44 total points in their last two games.  Overall, Virginia Tech is averaging 33.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play, but they’ve played a group of opposing defenses that are giving up 28.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Hokies will now play a Notre Dame defense that is only allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  That’s 3.0 points per game and 0.5 yards per play less than the defenses Virginia Tech has faced this season.

Notre Dame has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The Irish come into this game with a poor 4-6 SU record, but they’ve been a competitive bunch.  All six of Notre Dame’s losses have come by 8 points or less with their defeats coming by a total of 29 points.  The Irish are off their best game of the season; they blew out Army 44-6.  Off that dominating win and back at home, we expect the Irish will carry over momentum into this game.  Notre Dame is averaging 31.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that only gave up 26 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Those numbers show Notre Dame is a much better team than their record indicates.  We’ll back Notre Dame in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NOTRE DAME.

Oklahoma State is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game at TCU on Saturday afternoon.  The Cowboys come into this game with an 8-2 record, and they could very well be 9-1 on the season.  Oklahoma State lost on a controversial last play to Central Michigan back in Week 2; the play never should have counted.  The Cowboys won 43-37 at Kansas State two weeks ago after scoring the winning touchdown with less than 2 minutes to play.  Last week, the Cowboys beat Texas Tech 45-44 in a back and forth game that had over 1,100 yards of total offense.  That’s back-to-back emotionally draining games for Oklahoma State, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll have much in reserve for this game.  Oklahoma State was in a similar spot for their game at Baylor earlier this season, and it resulted in a 35-24 loss.  The Cowboys will also be playing their second road game in three weeks, and their third road game over the last five weeks.

TCU has had a disappointing season with just a 5-4 record.  However, the Horned Frogs have lost three of those games by 6 points or less, so they are a much better team than their record indicates.  TCU comes into this game off a bye, so that’s a major scheduling advantage for them, especially since Oklahoma State is off back-to-back draining games.  TCU is also playing with legitimate revenge after losing 49-29 as 6.5-point road favorites at Oklahoma State last season.  TCU actually out-yarded Oklahoma State 663-456 in that game, so the final was certainly misleading.  TCU is averaging 41.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play at home this season.  Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 30.7 points per game on 6.6 yards per play on the road this season.  The Cowboys’ defense is giving up 228.3 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per rush while TCU’s offense is running for 196 yards per game on 5.4 yards per rush.  This is simply a terrible spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma State, so we’ll lay the points with TCU on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play TCU (-).

Cincinnati and New York match-up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Bengals come into this game fresh off their bye week, so they’ll be ready to roll.  Cincinnati has scored 58 total points in their last two games, and we expect more of the same tonight.  Overall, Cincinnati is only averaging 20.9 points per game.  However, the Bengals gain 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play, so their offense is much better than their scoring average suggests.  Cincinnati will now face a New York defense that is allowing 5.7 yards per play at home, so the Bengals should move the ball consistently in this game.

New York’s offense has struggled a bit this season, but they’ve actually played above average football on that side of the ball.  The Giants are averaging 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play.  At home, New York’s offense is averaging 24.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play, so they should have success against a Cincinnati defense that is allowing 27.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road.  The Giants are a passing offense and they average a fantastic 8.3 yards per pass at home this season.  They will now face a weak Cincinnati pass defense that allows 7.8 yards per pass on the road.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Bengals and Giants on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Seattle and New England will have the same game plan for tonight’s game, and that will be to throw the ball a lot.  The Seahawks had a breakout offensive game last week when they scored 31 points on Buffalo.  Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson had an efficient game as he completed 76.9% (20-26) of his passes for 282 yards with 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Wilson will also have success tonight against a New England secondary that has only faced one strong passing quarterback all season.  That came against Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton who completed 21 passes for 254 yards while scoring 17 points.

New England’s offense has been fantastic this season.  The Patriots are averaging 27.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Keep in mind that New England’s seasonal numbers include four games in which QB Tom Brady did not play.  In four games this season, Brady has completed 73.1% of his passes while averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt.  Overall, Brady has thrown for 1,319 yards with a 12/0 touchdown/interception ratio.  He will face a Seattle defense that was carved up by Matt Ryan and Drew Brees earlier this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Seahawks and Patriots on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Dallas was in a terrible scheduling and situational spot last week for their game in Cleveland, but the Cowboys played a perfect game in their 35-10 blowout win.  Dallas will now play a back-to-back road set for the first time this season, so the spot is even worse than last week.  Aside from last week’s game in Cleveland, the Cowboys have played three other road games this season.  They were 3.5 and 5-point underdogs in two of those games (Washington and Green Bay), and they were only 1-point favorites against the 49ers in San Francisco.  Now they are getting less points in Pittsburgh against the Steelers who are a better team than the others they’ve played.  Remember, the Cowboys are led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, so it’s hard to imagine them overcoming another bad spot in consecutive weeks.

Pittsburgh returns home off an ugly 21-14 road loss in Baltimore last week.  The Steelers have now lost three consecutive games, but two of those defeats came without QB Ben Roethlisberger under center.  Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played with a backup quarterback in some games.  Still, the Steelers are averaging 23 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh is primed for a peak performance while the Cowboys are taking a monumental step-up in class.  We’ll back Pittsburgh in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Kansas City and Carolina shouldn’t have much trouble scoring points on each other’s defense in this game.  The Chiefs have scored 24 points or more in five of their eight games this season.  They were held to 19 points last week against the Jaguars, but Kansas City played that game without QB Alex Smith and a slew of other offensive players.  Smith will be back under center for this game, so we expect a much better offensive performance.  Overall, the Chiefs are averaging 23.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face a Carolina defense that is giving up 25.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Carolina returns home off an ugly 13-10 win in Los Angeles.  The Panthers have played three of their last five games on the road, so a home game will bring out their best, especially on the offensive side of the ball.  Carolina’s offense is averaging 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Kansas City’s defense is giving up 21.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play on the road.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Chiefs and Panthers on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Green Bay and Tennessee match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Packers have scored 23 points or more in six of their eight games this season.  Overall, Green Bay is averaging 24.7 points per game versus defenses that give up 22.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Packers’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored a total of 84 points in their last three games.  Green Bay will now face a poor Tennessee defense that is allowing 25.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offense that only average 22.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.   

Tennessee’s offense has struggled a bit this season, but they’ve actually played above average football on that side of the ball.  The Titans are averaging 24.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that give up 24.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Titans are averaging 6.2 yards per play at home this season, so they will have success against a Green Bay defense that is allowing 24.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play on the road.  Green Bay’s secondary has been terrible while allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and since Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota is averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt at home, the Titans offense will have success thru the air.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Titans on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

LSU was on a tear since firing head coach Les Miles.  Interim head coach Ed Orgeron led the Tigers to three straight wins by a combined score of 125-38.  However, LSU ran into the best team in the country last week and they lost 10-0 to Alabama.  There’s no shame in that loss, and off their disappointing performance, we expect LSU to come with a focused effort.  LSU is averaging 26.1 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 24.7 points per game on just 5.5 yards per play.  The Tigers’ offense is going from facing the best defense in the country to facing one of the worst defenses in the SEC.  Arkansas is giving up 29.0 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  The Razorbacks have been horrendous against the run, allowing 6.1 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 4.9 ypr).  LSU has a potent ground game that is averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season (versus opponents that allow just 4.5 ypr), so the Tigers should dominate the line of scrimmage tonight.

Arkansas comes into this game off an upset home win as 3-point underdogs against Florida.  The Razorbacks went into that game off their bye week, and off a 31-10 victory, we expect a letdown, especially since they are now taking a major step-up in class.  The Arkansas offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play as a group this season.  Arkansas is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against LSU in this game.  In fact, the Razorbacks will face a Tigers’ defense that is only allowing 14.4 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  That’s -13.1 points per game and -1.1 yards per play less than the opponents Arkansas has faced this season.  We’ll lay the points with LSU on Saturday night.  

9* Play LSU (-).

Stanford and Oregon match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.  The Cardinal offense has struggled so far this season, but we expect their best offensive performance in this game.  Stanford has faced an extremely tough slate of opposing defenses that have held their opponents to just 25.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Stanford will now face a woeful Oregon defense that is giving up 42.6 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 34.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Stanford’s offense is taking a major step-down in defensive class based on the above numbers.

Oregon has a potent offense.  The Ducks are averaging 38.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 29.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Oregon will face a Stanford defense that has good seasonal number this season.  However, the Cardinal defense was extremely fortunate in facing a collection of offenses that have been at less than full strength recently.  Oregon has scored 83 total points on Stanford in their last two meetings.  We expect a high-scoring game between Stanford and Oregon on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami, FL comes into this game with a 5-4 SU record, but they’ve actually lost four of their last five games.  The Hurricanes snapped their 4-game losing streak with a 51-28 win over Pittsburgh last week as 4.5-point home favorites.  Miami will now hit the road for the third time in four weeks, and they are simply laying way too many points in a poor scheduling spot.  Miami’s offense is averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

Virginia comes into this game with a poor 2-7 record, but the team has been competitive under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  Three of the Cavaliers’ seven losses have come by 7 points or less, including two of their last three home games.  Virginia is averaging 27.8 points per game at home this season, and since Miami’s defense is giving up 24.5 points per game on the road, we expect the Cavaliers to score enough points to keep this game close throughout.  We’ll take Virginia plus the generous points in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VIRGINIA (+).

Cleveland comes into this game winless at 0-9 SU, and the Browns put in a pathetic effort in their 35-10 home loss to Dallas last Sunday.  However, Cleveland will now play with legitimate revenge tonight after blowing a 20-0 first quarter home lead against Baltimore back in Week 2.  The Browns went on to lose that game 25-20, so we expect a focused effort in this rematch tonight.  Overall, Cleveland’s offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play.  And that was without their full compliment of starters.  The Browns’ offense is finally at full strength, so they’ll play much better than they did last week.  Winless underdogs are a long-term 60% ATS play at this point in the season.

Baltimore came off their bye last week to beat Pittsburgh 21-14.  But that was another phony win by the Ravens as they scored on a 95-yard broken play and a blocked punt return.  Their only sustained offense resulted in two field goals.  Baltimore’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Ravens are only averaging 19.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Quarterback Joe Flacco is playing with a hurt shoulder, and his numbers are way down because of it.  The Ravens shouldn’t be laying this many points into any team, so we’ll back Cleveland in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play BROWNS (+).

North Carolina is 7-2 SU on the season with their two losses coming versus Georgia in the season opener and at home versus Virginia Tech.  The Tar Heels played a tough stretch of games in which they were on the road in three of four weeks right before their bye.  They won all three of those games, and went into their off week full of momentum.  After a week of rest, North Carolina came out and waxed Georgia Tech by 28 points (48-20) at home last week.  But now they must hit the road again, and this is simply a natural letdown spot for the Tar Heels on a short week.  North Carolina’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a terrible group of defenses that give up 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

Duke comes into this game with a poor 3-6 SU record, and they are on a 3-game losing streak.  However, two of those three games were on the road, and the Blue Devils lost all three games by 10 points or less with two of the losses coming by just 3 points apiece.  Only one of Duke’s six losses this season has come by more than tonight’s posted pointspread and the Blue Devils are a profitable 6-3 ATS in all games.  Duke has played solid defense this season.  The Blue Devils are giving up just 23.9 points per game versus opponents that average 28.3 points per game.  Duke’s defense is only giving up 18.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play at home this season.  We’ll take Duke plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play DUKE (+).

Buffalo has been a streaky team so far this season.  The Bills opened the season with back-to-back losses before winning four consecutive games.  Buffalo comes into tonight’s game in Seattle off two straight losses, so we certainly expect a strong effort from the Bills tonight, especially with a bye week on deck.  Buffalo’s offense has been extremely efficient this season.  The Bills are averaging 26.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Buffalo has scored 25 points or more in six of their eight games this season, and in the two games in which Seattle has given up more than 20 points, the Seahawks lost and won the other game by just 2 points.

Seattle is 4-2-1 SU on the season as they return home off back-to-back road games with another big road game at New England on Sunday night.  The Seahawks have underperformed greatly on the offensive side of the ball this season despite facing a collection of poor defenses.  Seattle is only averaging 18.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Quarterback Russell Wilson is clearly playing hurt, and that is having a major impact on Seattle being inefficient on offense.  This game should be close throughout, so we’ll take Buffalo plus the points on Monday night football.

10* Play BILLS (+).

Denver is back to their winning ways after two straight dominating victories by a combined score of 54-28.  The Broncos had lost their previous two games to the Falcons and Chargers, but they’ve righted their ship in the last two games.  Denver has an exceptional defense once again this season.  The Broncos are only giving up 17.0 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  On the road, Denver is only allowing 15 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.

Oakland comes into tonight’s game off a fortunate overtime win in Tampa Bay last Sunday.  The Raiders trailed by a touchdown with just over a minute to play before forcing overtime.  Oakland has good offensive numbers this season, but they’ve faced a collection of bad defenses that allow 25.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Raiders will now face a Denver defense that is giving up -8.7 points per game and -1.0 yards per play less than what they have seen.  The Broncos hold a substantial defensive edge in this game as the Raiders are allowing 25.4 points per game on a horrendous 6.6 yards per play (versus opponents that average 24.8 ppg and 5.8 yppl).  We’ll back Denver in this game for first place in the AFC West division on Sunday night.

9* Play BRONCOS.

New Orleans and San Francisco match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Saints have scored 21 points or more in six of their seven games, and 25 points or more in five of their seven games this season.  Overall, New Orleans is averaging 28.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that give up 23.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints’ offense will now face a terrible San Francisco defense that is allowing 31.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 23.1 ppg and 5.7 yppl).

San Francisco’s offense has struggled this season, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up only 21.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The 49ers come into this game fresh off their bye, so we expect a strong offensive performance this afternoon.  San Francisco will face a poor New Orleans defense that has given up 30.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average just 25.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Saints and 49ers on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER (Saints/49ers).

Jacksonville is just 2-5 on the season, and they come off an ugly 36-22 national TV loss to the Titans on a Thursday night.  Nobody will want any part of the Jaguars in this game, but this is a good bounce back spot for the team.  Jacksonville has played a tough schedule, but they’ve been a competitive team in four of their seven games.  Jacksonville’s offense has underperformed, so they fired offensive coordinator Greg Olson.  With extra time to prepare, we expect a spirited effort out of the Jacksonville offense this afternoon.  Kansas City’s defense has alternated good games and bad games this season, and if that pattern holds, look for a poor performance from the Chiefs stop unit.

Kansas City comes into this game with a 5-2 record, and the Chiefs are on a 3-game winning streak.  However, Kansas City has underachieved on the offensive side of the ball.  The Chiefs’ offense is only averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  And that was with their full compliment of starters.  Kansas City will be without QB Alex Smith (concussion), running back Jamal Charles (knee), and running back Spencer Ware (concussion).  The Chiefs’ second unit offense will face a Jacksonville defense that is only giving up 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.  We’ll take Jacksonville plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Dallas was fortunate to win at home against the Eagles last Sunday night.  The Cowboys trailed 23-13 in the fourth quarter before rallying back to win in overtime.  Dallas will now hit the road off that big divisional win, and they are are simply laying way too many points.  The Cowboys have played three road games so far this season.  They were 3.5 and 5-point underdogs in two of those games, and they were only 1-point favorites against the 49ers in San Francisco.  The Cowboys are led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, so having them lay more than a touchdown on the road off a big spotlight win cannot be a good thing, especially with another big game at Pittsburgh next week.

Cleveland comes into this game winless at 0-8 SU, but winless dogs at this point in the season are a long-term 60% ATS play, plus the Browns have been a competitive team in the majority of their games.  The Browns have only played three home games, and they should have won two of those games.  They lost by 5 points to the Ravens and by 3 points to the Jets last week.  Cleveland is at home for the second consecutive week for the first time this season, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  Overall, Cleveland is averaging 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.8 yards per play.  And that was without their full compliment of starters.  The Browns’ offense will finally be at full strength, and since they are catching Dallas in a bad spot, we’ll take Cleveland plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BROWNS (+).

Alabama is the best team in the country as the Crimson Tide come into this game with a perfect 8-0 SU record on the season.  Alabama also comes into this game off a bye, but not sure that’s a good thing after winning their last two games by a combined score of 82-24.  The Crimson Tide offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play as a group this season.  Alabama is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against LSU in this game.  In fact, the Crimson Tide will face a Tigers’ defense that is only allowing 14.2 points per game on 4.4 yards per play at home.  That’s -13.3 points per game and -1.2 yards per play less than the opponents Alabama has faced this season.

LSU has been on a tear since firing head coach Les Miles.  Interim head coach Ed Orgeron is 3-0 SU/ATS with those three wins coming by a combined score of 125-38.  Like Alabama, LSU will come into this game off a bye.  But it’s a much stronger angle for LSU since they are home underdogs while playing with legitimate revenge.  LSU is averaging 36.4 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play at home this season.  Alabama does have a stout defense, but they have been much weaker on the road, giving up 14.6 points per game and 1.0 yards per play more away than at home this season.  When the season began two months ago, LSU was a 1-point favorite in this game.  Now they are getting more than a full touchdown which provides solid line value.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with LSU on Saturday night.  

10* Play LSU (+).

Iowa comes into this game with a 5-3 SU record with their last game being a 17-9 home loss to Wisconsin.  All three of the Hawkeyes’ losses this season have come by 8 points or less with their average loss coming by just 5.7 points per game.  Iowa comes into this game off a bye week, so they’ve had extra time to prepare.  And since they are also off a home loss, we expect a peak performance in this game.  The Hawkeyes are averaging 28.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 26.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Iowa’s running game averages 246 yards per game on 5.6 yards per rush on the road.  They will face a Penn State defense that allows 183 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  Iowa’s ability to run the ball will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

Penn State is 6-2 SU on the season, and they come off their two best games of the year.  The Nittany Lions beat Ohio State 24-21 as a 19-point home underdog two weeks ago, and last week they beat Purdue 62-24 on the road.  Off those back-to-back big performances, we expect Penn State to regress sharply in this game.  The Nittany Lions’ offense is averaging 31.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play at home this season, but they’ve put those numbers up against a poor slate of opposing defenses.  Penn State will now face an Iowa defense that only gives up 16.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play on the road this season.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Iowa on Saturday night.

9* Play IOWA (+).

Missouri is just 2-6 SU on the season, but the Tigers are better than their record indicates.  Missouri is averaging 33.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 30.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Tigers will face a South Carolina defense that has good seasonal numbers, but the Gamecocks have played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 27.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Missouri’s offense will be a step-up in class for South Carolina, and that’s not a good thing since the Gamecocks have given up 21 points or more in four consecutive games.

South Carolina is 4-4 SU on the season after winning their last two games.  The Gamecocks barely survived a terrible UMass team 34-28 two weeks ago as a 20-point favorite before beating Tennessee 24-21 as 14.5-point home underdogs last week.  Off those back-to-back close games, South Carolina is in a major flat spot, especially since they are laying points in this game.  South Carolina’s offense has played below average football this season.  The Gamecocks are only averaging 17.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 27.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  South Carolina shouldn’t be laying this many points, so we’ll take Missouri in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

Atlanta is 5-3 SU on the season, but the Falcons are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Tampa Bay.  The Falcons are off three consecutive close, high-scoring games while now traveling on a short week and laying points on the road.  Atlanta’s last three games were all decided by 3 points or less with one of those games going into overtime.  The Falcons have to be fatigued, and that may show tonight, especially since they’ve had less time to recover.  Atlanta’s defense has been terrible all season; the Falcons are giving up 28.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average just 25.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Tampa Bay is winless at home this season, but their three losses have come against Oakland, Denver, and Los Angeles who are a combined 15-8 SU on the season.  The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 31-24 in Atlanta back in Week 1, and they know they are capable of winning again.  Quarterback Jameis Winston had a terrific game as he completed 71.9% (23-for-32) of his passes for 281 yards with 4 touchdown passes and one interception.  There’s no reason Winston can’t repeat that performance tonight, especially since Atlanta’s defense has gotten progressively worse since that first meeting.  Tampa Bay matches up well against Atlanta as the Bucs are 3-0 SU/ATS the past two seasons, plus Tampa's defensive coordinator is now Mike Smith who was the former head coach for Atlanta.  We’ll back the Buccaneers plus the points in this home game on Thursday night.

10* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Minnesota and Chicago come into tonight’s game from opposite ends of the spectrum.  The Vikings are 5-1 SU/ATS on the season with their lone loss coming last week at Philadelphia.  The Bears are just 1-6 SU/ATS on the season with their lone win coming by just 3 points over a poor Detroit team.  Minnesota has built their record by beating bad teams, but despite that, they’ve played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  The Vikings are averaging 21.5 points per game on just 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Chicago’s defense is only allowing 20 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season, so they should be able to contain Minnesota's weak offensive unit tonight.

Chicago has had a terrible season so far, but the Bears have at least been competitive on their home field.  The Bears are just 1-2 SU at home, but one of their losses came by just a single point (17-16) while the other loss came against a decent Eagles squad.  Chicago’s offense is only averaging 15.9 points per game, but they are gaining 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.8 yppl) which makes the Bears' points per game average misleading.  Chicago will put quarterback Jay Cutler back under center tonight, so maybe he can provide a little more pop.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive slugfest, so we’ll back Chicago plus the points at home on Monday night football.

10* Play BEARS (+).

Philadelphia got back to their winning ways after defeating the Minnesota Vikings 21-10 last week.  The Eagles had lost their previous two games to the Lions and Redskins, but those losses came by a combined 8 points.  Philadelphia has played above average football on both sides of the ball this season.  The Eagles are averaging 26 points per game versus defenses that only give up 22.8 points per game.  Philadelphia’s defense only gives up 14.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. 

Dallas comes into tonight’s game off their bye, but that’s not a good thing considering they had won five consecutive games.  The Cowboys are led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, so having their momentum halted mid-season may have a negative impact on how they perform tonight, especially against a strong Philadelphia defense.  Dallas has faced soft defenses so far this season, but tonight they will face a defense that is giving up 9 points per game and 0.2 yards per play less than what they have seen.  We’ll take the points in a game that will go right down to the wire.

9* Play EAGLES (+).

Oakland and Tampa Bay match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Raiders have scored 28 points or more in five of their seven games this season.  In their game against Kansas City, the Raiders only scored 10 points, but that game was played in a monsoon which prevented Oakland from throwing the ball effectively.  Overall, the Raiders are averaging 26.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Oakland’s offense has actually been better on the road where they are averaging 28.2 points per game.  Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed 37 and 27 points in their two home games this season.  

Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled a bit this season, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only give up 23.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Buccaneers scored 34 points on the 49ers last week, and we expect another strong offensive performance this afternoon.  Tampa Bay will face a poor Oakland defense that has given up 25.6 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Oakland’s secondary has been atrocious while allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Raiders and Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

New York and Cleveland shouldn’t have much trouble scoring points on each other’s defense in this game.  The Jets have scored 22 points or more in just three of their seven games this season, but those three games all came against poor defenses.  They were held to 17 points or less in their other four games against the Cardinals, Seahawks, Steelers, and Chiefs.  Overall, the Jets have faced a group of defenses that is only giving up 19.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New York will now face a horrendous Cleveland defense that is allowing opponents to score 29.6 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  They’ve allowed those poor numbers against offenses that only average 22.4 points per pass on 6.0 yards per play.

Cleveland returns home off back-to-backs road losses, and in fact, the Browns have played four of their last five games on the road.  Overall, this will only be Cleveland’s third home game of the season.  Their last home game came against New England when Tom Brady was making his season debut.  The Browns’ offense has poor numbers, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses that only allow 20.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  New York’s defense is giving up 28.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road, so Cleveland’s offense will breakout, especially with veteran QB Josh McCown back under center.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Jets and Browns on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Detroit and Houston both come into today’s game with 4-3 records on the season, but there’s no doubt that the Texans have played the much tougher schedule.  The Lions opened the year at 1-3 despite playing bad teams like the Colts, Titans, and Bears.  Detroit has played their last three games at home while going 3-0 versus the Eagles, Rams, and Redskins.  However, all three of those games were close and decided late; they beat the Eagles 24-23, the Rams 31-28, and the Redskins 20-17 on a last second touchdown last week.  Now Detroit must hit the road off three consecutive tough games while facing a team that is undefeated on their home field.  Detroit’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 28.7 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season.

Houston’s three losses this season have come on the road against New England, Minnesota, and Denver.  The Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos are a combined 16-4 SU on the season, and all three teams have excellent defenses.  Houston’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played a tough slate of defenses that are only giving up 20.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  In four games against lesser defenses, Houston has averaged 23.8 points per game.  The Texans are taking a monumental step-down in defensive class against the Lions in this game, so we expect a breakout offensive performance this afternoon.  We’ll back Houston in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play TEXANS (-).

Clemson is a perfect 7-0 SU on the season, but they’ve only played two ‘real’ opponents so far.  The Tigers struggled mightily at Auburn in their season opener; they won that game 19-13.  Their other tough game ended in a 42-36 come from behind home win over Louisville.  The Tigers’ offense is averaging 36.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play, but they’ve put those numbers up against a poor slate of opposing defenses.  Clemson will now face a Florida State defense that only gives up 17.0 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home.  That’s 19.6 points and 0.6 yards per play of production that Clemson has too make up in order to reach their seasonal averages.

Florida State comes into this game with a 5-2 SU record, including a 2-1 home record where they’ve won by a combined score of 69-14.  The Seminoles are averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that give up 28.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Clemson has good defensive numbers, but they’ve faced offenses that average 30 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Florida State’s running game averages 213 yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush.  Clemson allowed Louisville to run for 273 yards, and the Tigers trailed in that game 36-28 on their home field late in the fourth quarter.  The look-ahead line was Florida State -3 when this season began, so recent results have now created solid value with the Seminoles.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Florida State as a home underdog on Saturday night.

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

Arizona State and Oregon match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday.  The Sun Devils have a potent offense that is averaging 35.7 points per game versus defenses that give up 31.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Sun Devils will now face a woeful Oregon defense that is giving up 43.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 35.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Arizona State scored 55 points on 742 yards of offense against the Ducks last season.  QB Manny Wilkins is doubtful with an arm injury today, but he has mediocre numbers this season and the backup quarterback is more than capable of still moving the ball against this terrible Oregon defense.  This total is also several points lower now because of the injury which has created line value.

Oregon also has a potent offense.  The Ducks are averaging 38.6 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 28.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Oregon will now face an Arizona State defense that has been atrocious this season.  The Sun Devils are giving up 34.4 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 33.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Oregon scored 61 points on ‘just’ 499 yards of offense against the Sun Devils last year.  Look for a high-scoring game between Arizona State an Oregon on Saturday.

9* Play OVER the total.

Miami, FL comes into this game with a 4-3 SU record, but they are on a 3-game SU and ATS losing streak.  The Hurricanes will play back-to-back road games, and they will also be on the road for the fourth time in their last six games.  Miami’s offense is in terrible current form as they’ve scored 19 points or less in each of their last three games while scoring a total of just 48 points in those games.  Overall, Miami is averaging 33.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Hurricanes will now play a Notre Dame defense that is only allowing 27.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  That’s 3.9 points per game and 0.4 yards per play less than the defenses Miami has faced this season.

Notre Dame has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The Irish come into this game with a poor 2-5 SU record, but they’ve been a competitive bunch.  All five of Notre Dame’s losses have come by 8 points or less with their defeats coming by a total of 28 points.  The Irish are off back-to-back losses, but they are also off a week of rest, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  Notre Dame is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only gave up 26.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Those numbers show Notre Dame is a much better team than their record indicates.  We’ll back Notre Dame in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NOTRE DAME.

California is 4-3 SU on the season, but the Golden Bears are 0-3 SU in true road games.  They lost at San Diego State, Arizona State, and Oregon State.  USC is a much better team than those three opponents, so California is up against it tonight.  California’s defense gave up 45 points or more in all three of those road losses, and that is not a surprise as their stop unit has been absolutely atrocious this season.  The Golden Bears are allowing 41.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  On the road, California has given up 43.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

USC also comes into this game with a 4-3 SU record, but their losses have come against teams like Alabama, Stanford and Utah.  The Trojans have now won three straight games with their last being a confidence-building 48-14 blowout at Arizona, so they come into this game with good momentum.  USC’s offense is averaging 35.7 points per game on 6.5 yards per play at home this season, so they will score at will on California’s terrible defense.  USC’s defense has been tremendous at home where they are only giving up 14.7 points per game on 4.5 yards per play this season.  USC has 11 days of rest for this game, while California must travel and play on a short week (only 5 days of rest) after a draining national TV overtime game versus Oregon last week.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the USC on Thursday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Jacksonville is just 2-4 SU on the season, but they have played a tough schedule.  The Jaguars have also been a competitive team in four of their six games, and against an opponent on their level tonight, they’ll be in this game from the start at Tennessee.  Jacksonville’s offense has yet to get going this season, but again, they have faced a strong group of opposing defenses that give up 24.2 points per game.  The Jaguars will now face a Tennessee defense that is allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.

Tennessee comes into this game with a 3-4 SU record, and the Titans may actually be worse than their record indicates, especially since they are just 2-5 ATS.  Tennessee has played a weak schedule yet they have still underachieved greatly.  Tennessee’s offense is only averaging 20.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Jacksonville’s defense is only giving up 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.7 yards per play, so Tennessee’s offense will struggle to move the ball with consistency in this game.  We’ll back Jacksonville in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Houston and Denver both come into tonight’s game with 4-2 records on the season, but one can argue that the Texans have played the tougher schedule.  Houston’s two losses came to New England and Minnesota, and both of those games were on the road.  The Patriots and Vikings are a combined 11-2 SU on the season.  Houston’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played a tough slate of defenses that are only giving up 20.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Texans will certainly face another tough defense tonight in Denver, but we expect the Texans to stay in this game with their defense.

Denver has played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  The Broncos are only averaging 23.3 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 27.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Things won’t get any easier for the Broncos tonight as they’ll face a Houston defense that is only giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season.  Denver will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game, and that will prevent them from winning this game by more than a touchdown.  We’ll back Houston on Monday night football.

10* Play TEXANS (+).

Seattle comes into tonight’s game in Arizona with a good looking 4-1 record on the season.  However, the Seahawks have played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  Seattle is only averaging 21 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 26.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Things won’t get any easier for the Seahawks tonight as they’ll face an Arizona defense that is only giving up 12.5 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.  Seattle will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.

Arizona is only 3-3 on the season, but the Cardinals just got quarterback Carson Palmer back on the field last week.  Arizona has had to win games with their defense in the absence of Palmer, and the stop unit has been terrific.  Overall, the Cardinals are only allowing 17.3 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense is averaging 25.5 points per game versus defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game, so they’ve been much better than Seattle on that side of the ball.  We’ll back the Cardinals in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

San Diego and Atlanta match-up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  The Chargers come into this game off a poor offensive performance at home versus Denver on a Thursday night; they only scored 21 points on 265 yards of total offense.  However, the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league, so that performance can be forgiven.  San Diego’s offense will bounce back with a much better performance today, especially since they are facing an Atlanta defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Falcons are giving up 32.0 points per game on 6.0 yards per play at home this season with those games averaging 68.0 total points scored.

Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 36 points per game on a whopping 7.7 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Matt Ryan has completed 68.1% of his passes while averaging 9.9 yards per pass attempt this season.  Overall, Ryan has thrown for 2,075 yards with a 15/3 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a San Diego defense that is giving up 31 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Chargers’ secondary is allowing 316 passing yards per game and 7.6 yards per pass attempt on the road, so Ryan will throw the ball all over the field in this game.  The Falcons are 5-1 to the Over this season with an average of 60.9 total points per game, while the Chargers are 4-2 to the Over with an average 54.6 total points per game (4-1 Over and 58.8 ppg if you remover the Denver game).  Look for a high-scoring game between the Chargers and Falcons on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Washington and Detroit will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The Redskins have scored 23 points or more in four of their six games this season, and all of those games have come outside in the elements.  This will be Washington’s first game inside a dome, and on a fast track, we expect a strong offensive performance.  Overall, the Redskins are averaging 23.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins is averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and he will now face a terrible Detroit secondary that has given up a league-high 17 touchdown passes while allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt against offenses that only average 6.8 yards per pass attempt.

Detroit comes into this game off back-to-back home wins after their offense scored a total of 55 points in those two games.  Overall, the Lions’ offense is averaging 25 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus a collection of defenses that only allow 22.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  Washington’s defense is giving up 23.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play despite playing struggling offenses like the Giants, Ravens, and Browns.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Redskins and Lions on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore returns to New York for the second consecutive week after losing 27-23 to the Giants last Sunday.  The Ravens are now 3-3 on the season after opening with a perfect 3-0 record.  Baltimore’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Ravens are only averaging 19.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Joe Flacco is playing with a hurt shoulder, and he missed two days of practice this week because of it.  Baltimore will also be without their best pass rusher, Elvis Dumervil (foot), Terrell Suggs (biceps), linebacker C.J. Mosley (thigh), wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. (ankle), and lineman Marshal Yanda (shoulder) are all out as well.  The Ravens are a mash unit right now, so the Jets are catching them at the right time.

New York has had a disappointing season; the Jets come into this game with a 1-5 record.  But to their defense, they’ve played a brutal schedule against teams like Seattle, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo.  The Jets have also played four of their six games on the road, including four of their last five games.  New York’s last home game came three weeks ago, so they will be primed for a big effort in front of their fans this afternoon.  New York’s offense has struggled mightily, so Geno Smith will start at quarterback in hopes of turning things around.  Smith’s mobility will play a key role in this game, especially since Baltimore’s front seven is decimated by injuries.  We’ll back the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play JETS (-).