-Georgia is a perfect 9-0 SU, but they’ve played one good team; beat Notre Dame 20-19
-offense has faced a collection of bad rush defenses making it easy on their true freshman QB
-Bulldogs defense has faced terrible offenses in their last two games; stepping way up in class 

-Auburn playing with revenge after losing 13-7 as 10-point road favorites at Georgia last season

-offense is averaging 36.9 points per game versus defenses that give up 27.8 points per game 
-Tigers defense is allowing just 12.5 points per game on 3.8 yards per play at home

9* Play AUBURN (+).

-SMU played their second worst offensive game of the season last week; expect bounce back 

-offense is averaging 39.6 points per game vs. defenses that give up 31.4 points per game    

-Mustangs defense is giving up 39.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play on the road

-Navy is also off a couple of recent bad offensive games; expect a strong performance here

-offense is averaging 33.5 points per game on 6.8 yards per play at home this season

-Midshipmen defense gives up 32.2 points per game on 6.8 yards per play at home 

9* Play OVER the total.

-Virginia Tech comes into this game off a crucial loss at Miami; tough spot to bounce back
-offense is only averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that also give up 5.6 yards per play    
-Hokies defense is giving up 4.7 yards per rush and 6.0 yards per play on the road this season

-Georgia Tech has four losses this season, but three of those losses have come by 4 points or less 

-offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.4 yards per play
-Yellow Jackets defense is allowing just 14.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play at home 

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

-BYU is just 2-8 on the season, but they’ve played a very tough schedule; big drop in class here

-offense has faced strong defenses that only give up 25.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play   

-Cougars defense is giving up 31 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season 

-UNLV’s offense is averaging 30 points per game on 6.5 yards per play at home   

-the Rebels average 252.3 rushing yards per game; BYU gives up 192.6 rushing ypg on the road 

-defense gives up 34.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season 

10* Play OVER the total.

-Seattle comes into this game off a home loss, so expect a strong bounce back effort tonight
-offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play   

-Seahawks defense is giving up just 16.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play on the road

-Arizona is 0-3 off a win this season; the Cardinals lost their next game by 11, 27, and 33 points 
-offense is only averaging 5.4 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play
-Cardinals defense is giving up 25.1 points per game vs. offenses that only average 23.5 ppg   

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

-Ball State is 0-5 SU on the road with their last 3 road losses coming by a combined 122 points
-offense is only averaging 4.5 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play
-Cardinals defense is giving up 39.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road

-Northern Illinois returns home off a road loss; expect big bounce performance tonight
-offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 28 points per game this season     

-Huskies defense is giving up just 15.7 points per game on 3.5 yards per play at home

9* Play NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-).

-Kent is 0-5 SU on the road; lost all five games by 21 points or more; have yet to score a TD
-offense is only averaging 4.1 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play
-Golden Flashes defense is giving up 38.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play on the road

-Western Michigan has lost their last two home games; expect big bounce performance tonight
-offense is averaging 35.3 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 29.2 points per game     

-Broncos defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game on 4.5 yards per play at home

10* Play WESTERN MICHIGAN (-).

-Akron will be playing their fifth road game over their last seven games overall; bad spot  
-offense is only averaging 5.2 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play
-Zips defense is giving up 31.6 points per game on 6.8 yards per play on the road this season 

-Miami Ohio returns home; this will be just their 3rd home game over their last seven games 
-offense has played much better at home where they are averaging 25.2 points per game    

-Redhawks defense is giving up just 20.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play at home 

9* Play MIAMI OHIO (-).

-Detroit has lost three straight games, and four of their last five games overall
-Lions are 1-25 SU at Green Bay L26 times; cold conditions tonight (31 degrees)
-offense is only averaging 5.2 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.3 yards per play
-Lions' defense is giving up 24.1 points per game vs. offenses that only average 20.4 ppg

-Green Bay lost their last game at home (3-1 SU), so expect a strong bounce back effort tonight
-coming off bye week which gave extra prep time and adjustments for backup QB Hundley
-Lions' pass defense has been terrible, allowing 7.4 yards per pass this season
-Packers' defense is giving up just 18.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play at home

9* Play PACKERS (+).

-Oakland is off a terrible offensive performance in their last game; expect an outburst tonight
-offense is averaging 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.4 yards per play 
-Raiders defense is giving 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.5 yards per play   

-Miami comes into this game off a 40-0 loss in their last game; expect strong offensive effort
-offense is averaging 23.5 points per game at home; much better stats than their road games 

-Dolphins defense has given up 68 total points in their last two games; bad time to face Oakland 

9* Play OVER the total.

-Indianapolis has lost three consecutive games, but that sets them up in strong bounce back spot
-offense has scored 22 points or more in three of their last four games; expect more of the same
-Colts defense is good against the run (116 ypg), so Texans will struggle to pass with backup QB

-Houston lost quarterback Deshaun Watson to an injury in practice this week; big negative here
-offense is going to struggle with Tom Savage at quarterback; he was terrible in his Week 1 start 
-Texans defense is giving up 26.9 points per game vs. offenses that only average 23.2 ppg 

10* Play COLTS (+).

-Los Angeles has scored 27 points or more in four of their last five games; in good form
-offense is averaging 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play 
-Rams defense is allowing a whopping 6.1 yards per play on the road this season

-New York comes into this game off their bye, so they’ll be fresh and ready with a strong effort
-offense has faced a strong group of opposing defenses that only give up 21.4 points per game

-Giants defense is giving up 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that also average 5.7 yppl

9* Play OVER the total.

-Denver has lost three consecutive games, but that sets them up for a strong performance here
-offense has faced a strong group of opposing defenses that only give up 21.2 points per game  
-Broncos defense is giving up just 4.7 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.7 yppl 

-Philadelphia is 6-1 on the season, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule so far
-offense runs first to open up passing game; Broncos allow just 73 rushing yards per game  
-Eagles defense is giving up 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.6 yppl

9* Play BRONCOS (+).

-Arizona has given up 86 total points in their two road conference games this season 
-offense has faced a group of bad defenses that give up 32.8 points per game; big step-up in class 
-Wildcats defense is giving up 30.2 points per game vs. offenses that only average 27.2 ppg

-USC returns home off a big road win at Arizona State; riding some good momentum here

-offense is averaging 36.8 points per game on 6.9 yards per play at home this season 
-Trojans defense is only giving up 25.8 points per game vs. offenses that average 31.1 ppg 

10* Play USC (-).

-Texas playing with revenge after losing 31-9 as 3-point home favorites vs. TCU last season

-offense is averaging 31.2 points per game versus defenses that give up 29.4 points per game 
-Longhorns defense is allowing just 17.5 points per game on 5.1 yards per play on the road 

-TCU comes into this game off their first loss of the season; expect hangover effect here
-offense has faced a collection of bad defenses that give up 33.9 points per game; step-up in class
-Horned Frogs defense has faced terrible offenses in their last three games; stepping way up here   

9* Play TEXAS (+).

-Stanford playing with revenge; lost 42-16 as 7.5-pt home favorites vs. Cougars last season

-offense is averaging 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.8 yards per play
-Cardinal defense is allowing just 20.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play on the road 

-Washington State is just 1-2 SU over their last three games, so they are not in good current form
-offense is only averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that also give up 5.8 yards per play    
-Cougars defense is giving up 141.2 rushing yards per game; Stanford averages 236.1 rypg 

9* Play STANFORD (-).

-Buffalo has won their last two games after scoring a combined 64 points; regression tonight 
-offense is only averaging 14 points per game on 4.1 yards per play on the road this season 
-Bills defense is giving up 5.5 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.6 yards per play  

-New York has lost their last three games, but those defeats have come by a total of 15 points 
-offense averages 6.0 yards per play at home, so expect a strong effort in this revenge spot  

-Jets defense is giving up just 18.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home 

9* Play JETS (+).

-Denver has lost back-to-back games with their last being a shutout loss; expect strong effort
-offense has faced a strong collection of opposing defenses that only give up 5.5 yards per play  
-Broncos defense is giving up just 4.7 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.5 yppl   

-Kansas City is on an 0-2 SU and ATS run after opening the season with a 5-0 SU/ATS record
-offense has faced a group of bad defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play; step-up in class here  
-Chiefs defense is giving up 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.9 yards per play

10* Play BRONCOS (+).

-Pittsburgh will play their first game inside a dome on a fast track; expect an explosive offense
-offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.2 yards per play 
-Steelers defense has faced below average offenses that only average 20.9 ppg; big step-up here 

-Detroit has scored 24 points or more in five of their six games, including all three at home
-offense is averaging 26.8 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 21.8 points per game 

-Lions defense is giving up 26.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season

9* Play OVER the total.

-Houston had a bye at the worst possible time; expect that break to have a negative impact 
-offense is averaging 6.5 points per game less on the road (23) than at home (29.5) 
-Texans defense is giving up 24.5 points per game vs. offenses that only average 22.9 ppg 

-Seattle is playing terrific football right now; they are on a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS run
-offense is averaging 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season
-Seahawks defense is holding opponents to just 15.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

-Carolina comes into this game off back-to-back losses; expect strong bounce back effort
-offense has played much better on the road where they are averaging 5.6 yards per play     
-Panthers defense is giving up just 18.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play on the road    

-Tampa Bay has lost three straight games and four of their last five games overall 
-offense must pass the ball to have success, but Carolina only allows 6.1 yards per pass attempt  
-Buccaneers defense is giving up 25.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season 

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

-Los Angeles has scored 21 points or more in three of their last four games; in good form
-offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play 
-Chargers defense has faced below average offenses that only average 20.8 ppg; big step-up here

-New England has scored less than their seasonal average in their last 3 games; bounce back spot
-offense is averaging 29 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season 

-Patriots defense is giving up 6.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 6.0 yards per play 

9* Play OVER the total.

-Mississippi State is off back-to-back blowout wins where they scored 80 points; regression here 

-offense has been much worse on the road where they only average 23.3 ppg 5.1 yards per play   
-Bulldogs defense is giving up 33.7 points per game on 6.5 yards per play on the road

-Texas A&M off a bye with revenge; lost 35-28 as 10.5-pt road favorites at Miss State last season
-offense is averaging 32.1 points per game versus defenses that allow 27.1 points per game
-Aggies defense allowing just 19.7 points per game on a strong 5.1 yards per play at home 

9* Play TEXAS A&M (+).

-Utah is 0-3 SU over their last three games while getting out-scored 81-57 in those games 
-offense is only averaging 25.3 points per game on the road; two away wins came by 12 points  
-defense is giving up 145.7 rushing yards on the road; Ducks average 244.7 yards on the ground 

-Oregon returns home off back-to-back ugly offensive games; strong bounce back here

-offense is averaging 43.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play at home this season 
-Ducks defense is only giving up 5.0 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.5 yards per play 

9* Play OREGON (+).

-Vanderbilt has lost their last four games by an average of 31.5 points per game
-offense is only averaging 22.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play this season 
-Commodores defense is giving up 33.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play on the road

-South Carolina returns home off a bye for homecoming; expect a strong performance here

-passing offense is averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt, and 6.0 yards per play overall at home
-defense has allowed just 19.3 points per game versus offenses that average 28.6 points per game  

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-).

-Penn State is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot after their big home win over Michigan
-offense has been much worse on the road where they only average 26 ppg on 5.4 yards per play   
-Nittany Lions defense has faced bad offenses that only average 24.2 ppg on 5.1 yards per play

-Ohio State off a bye with revenge; lost 24-21 as 19-pt road favorites at Penn State last season

-offense is averaging 7.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.7 yards per play
-Buckeyes defense is allowing just 15.4 points per game on 4.5 yards per play this season 

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

-Washington lost 30-17 at home to Washington in Week 1; just a 2-pt game with 2 minutes left
-offense is averaging 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.9 yards per play  
-Redskins defense is giving up just 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.9 yppl   

-Philadelphia is 5-1 on the season, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule so far
-offense runs first to open up passing game; Redskins allow just 87 rushing yards per game  
-Eagles defense is giving up 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that also average 5.7 yppl

10* Play REDSKINS (+).

-Atlanta’s offense is taking a big step-down in class against New England’s defense in this game
-Falcons offense is averaging 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.4 yards per play 
-defense is below average, giving up 5.1 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 4.8 yppl  

-New England returns home off two poor road games, so expect a strong offensive performance
-offense is averaging 31 points per game on 6.0 yards per play at home this season 

-Patriots defense is giving up 6.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.9 yards per play

9* Play OVER the total.

-Cincinnati comes into this game off their bye fresh and ready for a divisional opponent 
-offense has been strong on the road where they are averaging 27.5 ppg on 5.6 yards per play
-Bengals defense is excellent, giving up just 16.6 points per game on 4.4 yards per play 

-Pittsburgh returns home after handing the Chiefs their first loss of the season; letdown here
-offense is only averaging 17.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season  
-Steelers defense has faced a group of mediocre offenses that only average 21.3 ppg on 5.4 yppl  

10* Play BENGALS (+).

-New York hits the road after a 24-17 home loss to New England; expect bounce back effort
-already beat the Dolphins 20-6 this season after out-yarding them by 111 yards (336-225)    
-Jets defense is giving up just 21.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season    

-Miami returns home off their big upset win at Atlanta as 14-point road underdogs; letdown spot
-offense is below average; averaging just 12.2 points per game vs. defenses that allow 23.2 ppg  
-Dolphins averaging just 4.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play

9* Play JETS (+).

-Tennessee off high-scoring home win on Monday night vs. division rival; letdown here
-offense is only averaging 20.3 points per game on 5.0 yards per play on the road
-Titans defense is giving up 27.3 points per game versus offenses that only average 21.9 ppg  

-Cleveland is winless on the season, but returning home, expect a strong performance here  
-offense has played strong defenses that only give up 5.3 yards per play; step-down vs. Titans
-Browns defense good at home where they give up 23 points per game on 5.3 yards per play 

9* Play BROWNS (+).

-Wyoming has played an easy schedule for a 4-2 record; lost 49-13 to Oregon and 24-3 at Iowa 

-offense is below average; 24 ppg on 4.8 yppl versus defenses that allow 28.9 ppg on 5.9 yppl  
-Cowboys defense has faced offenses that average 21.2 points per game on 4.8 yards per play 

-Boise State has this game circled after losing as 14.5-point favorites at Wyoming last season
-offense is averaging 29 points per game versus defenses that only give up 22.5 points per game
-Broncos defense is allowing just 22.8 points per game on a strong 4.6 yards per play 

10* Play BOISE STATE (-).

-USC has played 5 of their 7 games at home this season; toughest road game to date

-offense has been much worse on the road where they are only averaging 5.1 yards per play   
-Trojans defense has faced bad offenses that only average 5.7 yards per play; big step-up here 

-Notre Dame hell bent on revenge after getting embarrassed 45-27 at USC last season
-offense averaging 40 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.3 yppl
-Irish defense allowing just 16.8 points per game on a stout 4.8 yards per play 

9* Play NOTRE DAME (-).

-Oregon has played two straight poor games against strong defenses; strong bounce back here

-offense is averaging 37.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play; now face a terrible defense  
-Ducks defense is only giving up 4.9 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.4 yards per play 

-UCLA is just 1-3 SU over their last four games, losing those games by an average of 14.7 ppg 
-offense has faced defenses that give up 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play  
-Bruins defense is giving up 40.5 points on a whopping 6.7 yards per play this season  

9* Play OREGON (+).

-Louisville is on a 2-game losing streak, and they are stepping way up in defensive class 

-offense has faced opponents that allow 29 points per game on 5.9 yards per play   
-Cardinals defense is giving up 34 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road

-Florida State playing with revenge after losing 63-20 as road favorites in Louisville last season

-offense is averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 4.8 yards per play
-Seminoles defense is allowing just 20.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play 

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

-Kansas City’s offense is taking a big step-down in class against Oakland’s defense 
-Chiefs offense is averaging 6.7 yards per play vs. defenses that give give up 5.7 yards per play 
-defense is giving up 6.2 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.8 yards per play  

-Oakland remains at home after a terrible offensive performance; scored just 16 points 
-offense averages 26 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home, so expect bounce back effort  

-Raiders defense is giving up 5.8 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.5 yards per play 

9* Play OVER the total.

-New York is only scoring 16.4 points per game versus defenses that give up 22 ppg  
-offense is averaging 5.4 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that give up 5.7 yppl
-Giants defense has been poor on the road, giving up 23.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play

-Denver returns off a bye, so expect a fresh and healthy team; big edge vs. injury riddled Giants
-offense is averaging 24.5 points per game versus defenses that give up 21.5 points per game 
-Broncos defense is holding opponents to just 18.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play 

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

-Pittsburgh is off an ugly 30-9 home loss to Jacksonville, so expect a strong performance here  
-offense has played strong defenses that only give up 5.3 yards per play; Chiefs allow 6.0 yppl
-Steelers defense is excellent, giving up just 17.8 points per game on 4.8 yards per play 

-Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, but off high-scoring game on Sunday night, letdown here
-offense has faced a group of terrible defenses that allow 6.0 yards per play; stepping up in class 
-Chiefs defense is giving up 6.0 yards per play overall, and 6.5 yards per play at home 

9* Play STEELERS (+).

-Los Angeles’ offense is taking a big step-down in class against Oakland’s defense in this game
-Chargers offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play 
-defense is below average, giving up 5.7 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.6 yppl  

-Oakland is getting QB David Carr back on the field, so expect a strong offensive performance
-Carr was fantastic in earlier games; he completed 67.9% of his passes with a 7/2 TD/INT ratio 

-Raiders defense is giving up 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that only average 5.4 yppl 

10* Play OVER the total.

-Tampa Bay is just 2-2 on the season despite playing a weak schedule with three home games 
-offense is below average while averaging just 21.2 points per game vs. defenses that allow 24.1  
-Buccaneers defense gave up 34 points on a whopping 7.1 yards per play in their lone road game

-Arizona returns home off an embarrassing 34-7 loss in Philadelphia; expect bounce back effort
-offense averages 289.2 passing yards per game; Bucs give up 309 pypg on 7.4 yards per attempt    
-Cardinals defense is giving up just 21.5 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home    

9* Play CARDINALS (+).

-UCLA’s offense played poorly in their last game, so expect a strong bounce back effort here

-offense is averaging 41.4 points per game on a whopping 7.2 yards per play  

-Bruins defense gives up 53 points and 556.5 yards of offense on 7.7 yards per play on the road 

-Arizona’s offense is averaging a whopping 42 points per game on 6.8 yards per play   

-the Wildcats average 321 rushing yards per game; UCLA gives up 284.2 rushing yards per game 

-defense gave up 72 total points in their last two games and now they are stepping up in class

10* Play OVER the total.

-Michigan State off their big rivalry win at Michigan as 13-point underdogs; natural letdown spot 

-offense is below average; 22.4 ppg on 5.4 yppl versus defenses that allow 23 ppg on 5.4 yppl  
-Spartans defense gave up 284 rushing yards to Notre Dame and Michigan  

-Minnesota off back-to-back losses, and returning home, expect a peak performance here
-offense has a powerful rushing attack that averages 190 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush
-Golden Gophers defense allowing just 17.2 points per game on a strong 5.0 yards per play 

9* Play MINNESOTA (+).

-Auburn has scored 144 total points in their last three games against terrible teams and defenses
-the Tigers were 3.5-point home underdogs vs. LSU last season now 7.5-point road favorites 
-only road game against a competent defense resulted in a 14-6 loss at Clemson 

-LSU returns home off a 17-16 win at Florida; strong effort after losing their last home game 

-offense is averaging 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.5 yards per play
-Tigers defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play 

9* Play LSU (+).

-Philadelphia’s offense is taking a big step-up in class against Carolina’s defense 
-offense has faced a group of poor defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play 
-Eagles defense is giving up just 19.8 points per game; allowing 62.8 rushing yards per game  

-Carolina returns home off back-to-back road wins; they’ve scored 22 total points at home
-offense averages just 5.5 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 6.0 yards per play 

-Panthers defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play

10* Play OVER the total.

-South Alabama is 1-4 on the season with three of their four losses coming by 18 points or more

-offense averages just 23.6 points per game versus defense that give up 31.6 points per game   

-Jaguars defense is giving up 40.5 points per game on 7.4 yards per play on the road 

-Troy has won four straight games after losing their season opener 24-13 at Boise State  

-offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play 

-Trojans defense is excellent; allow just 12 points per game on 3.9 yards per play at home 

10* Play TROY (-).

-Minnesota’s offense is taking a big step-down in class against Chicago’s pass defense 

-Vikings offense averaging 6.1 yards per play vs. defenses that give give up 5.7 yards per play 

-defense played their worst game of the season in their lone road game; 26 points allowed

-Chicago returns home off a blowout loss at Green Bay; extra prep time off that Thursday game

-offense averages 4.5 yards per rush vs. defenses that give up 4.2 ypr; opens up big passing plays 

-Bears defense is giving up 26 points per game overall; allowing 6.0 yards per play at home

9* Play OVER the total.

-Kansas City is 4-0 SU/ATS on the season, but this is a bad spot after playing on Monday night  
-offense has faced defenses that give up 6.3 yards per play, so this is a big step-up in class
-Chiefs defense has given up 5.8 yards per play, so that unit has been anything but dominant

-Houston is getting a rare national TV game at home, so expect a strong effort tonight
-offense is averaging 27.5 points per game versus defenses that only give up 23.8 ppg  
-Texans defense is holding opponents to just 21.5 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home 

9* Play TEXANS (+).

-Seattle has some good momentum after their 46-18 home win over the Colts last Sunday night 
-offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play 
-Seahawks defense is holding opponents to just 19.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play

-Los Angeles returns home off back-to-back high-scoring road wins; natural letdown spot here 
-offense is pass heavy while averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt; Seattle gives up just 5.7 yppa 
-Rams defense is giving up 26.2 points per game on an ugly 6.0 yards per play

10* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

-Buffalo is off back-to-back SU underdog wins, and now on second straight road trip; letdown
-offense is below average; scoring just 18.9 points per game on 4.9 yards per play 
-Bills QB Taylor isn't the same on the road; just 6 of his last 22 TD passes have come on the road

-Cincinnati returning home off a big, confidence-building 31-7 win over Cleveland last Sunday  
-offense has played strong defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play
-Bengals defense is excellent; giving up just 16.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play 

9* Play BENGALS (-).

-Los Angeles is 0-4 on the season, but three of their four losses have come by 3, 2, and 2 points
-offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play  
-Chargers defense is stepping down in class after facing teams that average 5.7 yards per play  

-New York is also 0-4 on the season, and they’ve lost back-to-back high-scoring games 
-offense has been abysmal while averaging just 15 points per game on 5.4 yards per play 
-Giants defense is giving up 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play; bad stats for a favorite

9* Play CHARGERS (+).

-Kansas State is 3-1 on the season, but all three wins have come at home; lost 14-7 at Vanderbilt

-offense is below average; 37.5 ppg on 6.7 yppl versus defenses that allow 36.9 ppg on 6.8 yppl  
-Wildcats defense has faced offenses that average 20.7 points per game on 5.2 yards per play 

-Texas hell bent on revenge after losing 24-21 at Kansas State last season
-offense is averaging 48.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play at home this season
-Longhorns defense allowing just 21.2 points per game on a strong 5.3 yards per play 

10* Play TEXAS (-).

-Arkansas will play their first true road game of the season against a superior defensive team
-the Razorbacks offense has faced defenses that give up 31.3 ppg; big step-up vs. South Carolina 
-defense gave up 50 points on 7.3 yards per play in their one neutral site game this season

-South Carolina returns home off a 24-17 loss at Texas A&M; expect a strong bounce back here

-passing offense averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt; Arkansas has faced all running teams
-defense has allowed just 20.8 points per game versus offenses that average 30.5 points per game  

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (+).

-West Virginia has played an extremely easy schedule, but their stats are unimpressive
-offense has faced terrible defenses that allow 40.9 points per game on 6.8 yards per play
-Mountaineers defense giving up 6.1 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.7 yppl

-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season; 4-0 SU so far in 2017
-Horned Frogs offense is averaging a whopping 47.7 points per game on 6.6 yards per play
-defense allowing just 18.5 ppg on 5.2 yards per play; allow just 94.5 rushing yards per game   

9* Play TCU (-).

-Miami, FL is 3-0 vs. awful teams: Bethune Cookman, Toledo and Duke
-their three opponents allow 32.1 ppg on 6.4 yards per play on defense; big step-up in class now   
-Hurricanes defense has faced terrible offenses that only average 5.3 yards per play

-Florida State has won seven consecutive games against their in-state rival

-Seminoles have faced the much tougher schedule vs. teams like Alabama and NC State
-defense is allowing just 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 6.3 yards per play  

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

-New England was in a bad spot last Sunday, and that loss was not surprising; bounce back here
-offense averages 32.2 ppg on 6.5 yards per play vs. defenses that allow 19.6 ppg on 5.7 yppl 
-head coach Bill Belichick is an incredible 20-1 SU and ATS off a SU loss vs. non-division teams 

-Tampa Bay survived the Giants last week; team is loaded with injuries and stepping up in class 
-Buccaneers offense only averaging 23.7 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.9 ppg
-defense has given up 21.3 points per game vs. opponents that only average 16.7 points per game  

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

-Washington playing their 2nd straight primetime game; beat Oakland 27-10 last Sunday night
-offense has underperformed; 6.0 yards per play versus three bad defenses that allow 6.1 yppl 
-Redskins defense gave up 7.1 yards per play in their lone road game in LA versus the Rams 

-Kansas City comes into this game at 3-0 on the season; the only unbeaten team remaining
-offense is averaging a whopping 7.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 6.5 yppl
-Chiefs defense has been good giving up 5.5 yards per play vs. offenses that average 6.1 yppl    

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

-Indianapolis is only scoring 17.7 points per game versus defenses that give up 25.2 ppg  
-offense is averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that give up 5.4 yppl
-Colts defense has been terrible giving up 30 points per game on 5.8 yards per play

-Seattle returns home off a 33-27 loss to Titans; expect strong bounce back, especially on defense
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 5.4 yards per play 
-Seahawks defense is holding opponents to just 19.7 points per game; give up just 9 ppg at home   

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

-New York is 0-3 SU and desperate; much improved showing last week; expect more of the same
-offense stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 5.5 yards per play
-defense has played good while only giving up 23.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play

-Tampa Bay returning home off a shellacking at Minnesota; team is besieged with injuries 
-Buccaneers offense has played two defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play; step-up vs. Giants
-defense has given up 6.1 yards per play versus opponents that only average 5.7 yards per play 

10* Play GIANTS (+).

-San Francisco is 0-3 SU, but they’ve had extra time to prepare after last playing on a Thursday
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 19.3 points per game 
-49ers defense is only giving up 5.1 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.4 yards per play

-Arizona playing another home game after losing on Monday night to Dallas; injury riddled team
-offense has underperformed; 18.7 points per game versus bad defenses that allow 23.9 ppg 
-Cardinals defense is giving up 25.3 points per game on 5.1 yards per play

9* Play 49ERS (+).

-Carolina has yet to play their best football, but they get a favorable matchup to do just that
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 21.2 points per game 
-Panthers defense is excellent; holding opponents to 13.3 points per game on 4.9 yards per play 

-New England is set to regress after scoring 36 points in each of their last two wins
-QB Tom Brady will face a Carolina secondary that is only giving up 5.5 yards per pass attempt
-Patriots defense is giving up 31.7 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

-California’s offense has played back-to-back poor games, but facing a much softer defense here

-balanced offense that averages 153 rushing yards per game and 275.5 passing yards per game 

-Golden Bears defense gave up 30 points on 440 yards of offense in their lone road game

-Oregon’s offense is averaging a whopping 50.7 points per game on 7.1 yards per play   

-the Ducks average 244 yards per game on the ground and 313 yards per game thru the air

-defense gave up 35 and 37 points to the 2 Power 5 teams they played, Nebraska and Arizona St

9* Play OVER the total.

-Mississippi stepping up in class after playing California, Tennessee-Martin and South Alabama 
-the Rebels offense only averaging 36 points per game versus defenses that give up 33 ppg
-defense allowing 184 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush; bad matchup here 

-Alabama is averaging 41.2 ppg on 6.9 yppl versus defenses that allow 24.2 ppg on 5.4 yppl    

-offense is averaging 6.5 yards per rush versus defenses that only give up 4.3 yards per rush 
-defense is outstanding; allowing just 10 points per game on 4.2 yards per play  

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

-Florida State is 0-2 on the season, and with a bye on deck, expect a peak performance

-Seminoles have faced Alabama and NC State, so taking a big step-down in class here
-defense is allowing just 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 6.4 yards per play  

-Wake Forest is 4-0 vs. awful teams: Presbyterian, Boston College, Utah St and Appalachian St
-their four opponents allow 33.8 ppg on 5.7 yards per play on defense; big step-up in class   
-defense has faced terrible offenses that only average 20.2 ppg on 5.0 yppl 

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

-USC’s offense has played back-to-back poor games, so expect a breakout performance tonight
-despite scoring just 57 total points in their last two games, Trojans averaging 37 ppg on 6.5 yppl
-Trojans defense has given up 20 points or more in every game; now stepping up in class 

-Washington State’s offense is averaging 43.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play  
-the Cougars average 432.5 passing yards per game on 7.8 yards per pass attempt 
-defense has faced four bad offenses that only average 18.6 ppg on 4.8 yppl; big step-up vs. USC  

9* Play OVER the total.

-Dallas is looking to bounce back strong off their poor performance in Denver; a 42-17 loss
-offense is averaging 4.9 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that only give up 4.8 yppl
-Cowboys defense has been good giving up 5.1 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.5 yppl  

-Arizona playing their home opener after splitting their first two games on the road
-offense has underperformed; 19.5 points per game versus two bad defenses that allow 25.5 ppg 
-Cardinals defense is terrible giving up 5.7 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 4.7 yppl    

9* Play COWBOYS (-).

-Oakland’s offense will face another terrible defense; Raiders have scored 71 points in 2 games
-QB David Carr completing 75% (45-60) of his passes with a perfect 5/0 TD/INT ratio
-defense going from a run-oriented Jacksonville offense to a pass heavy Redskins offense

-Washington lost their home opener after scoring just 17 points; offense is the focus in this game
-offense averaging 146.5 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per rush; big plays will open up downfield   

-Redskins defense giving up 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 6.3 yards per play  

9* Play OVER the total.

-Seattle has yet to play their best football, but they get a favorable matchup to do just that
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 5.4 yards per play 
-Seahawks defense is excellent; holding opponents to 13 points per game on 5.3 yards per play 

-Tennessee set to regress after beating Jacksonville by 21 points (37-16) last week
-QB Marcus Mariota has struggled mightily; 58.8% completions with just one TD pass so far
-Titans defense giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 5.6 yards per play on the season

10* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

-New York is 0-2 SU and desperate; expect a strong effort with this being a divisional game
-offense stepping down in class after facing two defenses that only give up 5.0 yards per play
-defense has played good while only giving up 21.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play

-Philadelphia returning home off a pair of road games; line is inflated after Giants recent results 
-Eagles offense has played two bad defenses that give up 6.0 yards per play; step-up vs. Giants
-defense has given up 4.9 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per play; bad stats for a favorite 

9* Play GIANTS (+).

-Denver’s first road game after a Monday night win and high-profile win over the Cowboys
-the Broncos offense will regress sharply after scoring 66 points in their first two games
-offense averaging just 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.1 yppl  

-Buffalo plays much better at home than on the road; they beat the Jets in their home opener
-Denver’s man defense vulnerable to dual threat quarterbacks; Taylor leads all QB’s in rushing  
-the Bills defense is giving up just 10.5 points per game on 4.1 yards per play 

9* Play BILLS (+).

-Notre Dame hell bent on revenge after losing 36-28 at home as 7.5-point favorites last season
-offense averaging 39 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.4 yppl
-defense allowing just 18.7 points per game on a stout 4.6 yards per play 

-Michigan State’s two wins this season have come against less talented MAC teams

-offense is below average; 31.5 ppg on 6.1 yppl versus defenses that allow 37.3 ppg on 6.3 yppl  
-Spartans defense has faced offenses that only average 21 points per game on 4.6 yards per play 

10* Play NOTRE DAME (-).

-Mississippi State is one of the most improved teams in the country after going 6-7 in 2016
-Bulldogs have excellent rushing attack that averages 298 yards per game on 6.5 yards per rush
-defense has only given up 28 total points on a minuscule 3.3 yards per play in their three games 

-Georgia’s lone win against a ‘real’ team came by just a single point (20-19) over Notre Dame
-offensive strength is rushing, but Mississippi State’s defense only gives up 2.6 yards per rush
-defense taking a big step-up in class after facing a group of offenses that only average 27 ppg 

9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+).

-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season; 3-0 SU so far in 2017
-revenge game after losing 31-6 to Oklahoma State as 6.5-point home favorites last season
-defense allowing just 14.3 ppg on 4.5 yards per play; allow just 92.3 rushing yards per game   

-Oklahoma State off three straight blowout wins causing this pointspread to be inflated
-offense has faced three terrible defenses that allow 39.9 points per game on 7.8 yards per play
-Cowboys defense taking a big step-up in class against a TCU offense that averages 7.0 yppl

9* Play TCU (+).

-NC State will play their first true road game of the season against a superior team
-the Wolfpack offense has faced three bad defenses that give up 30.4 ppg; big step-up vs. FSU 
-below average stats on defense, giving up 5.6 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.3 yppl  

-Florida State playing just their second game of the season after losing to Alabama 3 weeks ago

-offense will be led by QB James Balckman; an edge since NC State has zero film on him
-defense is loaded with 9 returning starters; best in the ACC and one of the best in the country

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

-Utah comes into this game with a 3-0 SU record, but the Utes had to travel on a short week
-the Utes offense has faced three bad defenses that give up 33.8 ppg on 5.8 yards per play 
-defense has faced three terrible offenses that only average 14.6 ppg on 4.3 yards per play 

-Arizona returns home off 47-point road win; lost their previous home game so focused spot

-offense is averaging 47 points per game on 6.5 yards per play; big step-up for Utah’s defense
-defense is only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play; step-up for Utah’s offense  

9* Play ARIZONA (+).

-Detroit is not nearly as good as they looked by the score of their 35-23 win over Arizona
-Lions offense only had 367 yards of total offense; 4 turnovers contributed to their 35 points
-committed 10 penalties and only ran for 82 yards at home; trouble coming on the road 

-New York was in a bad spot for their opener in Dallas; a team playing with double revenge
-Giants playing at home against an overrated team presents some great value in the pointspread
-defense taking a step-down in class going from diverse Cowboys offense to predictable Lions  

10* Play GIANTS (-).

-Green Bay’s offense taking a big step-down in class going from the Seahawks to the Falcons
-QB Aaron Rodgers played terrific against Seattle while throwing for 311 yards 
-Packers defense going from a run-oriented Seattle to a pass-happy Atlanta offense on a fast track

-Atlanta opening their new stadium in primetime, so expect a strong offensive performance
-QB Matt Ryan was fantastic in Chicago; completed 70% (21-30) of his passes for 321 yards 

-Falcons defense taking a huge step-up in QB class going from Mike Glennon to Aaron Rodgers

9* Play OVER the total.

-New England’s offense had extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday night
-QB Tom Brady completed just 44.4% (16-36) of his passes vs. KC; expect a strong performance 
-Patriots defense was atrocious while giving up 42 points on 537 yards to the Chiefs  

-New Orleans’ offense only scored 19 points in Minnesota; expect strong performance at home
-QB Drew Brees played terrific on Monday; completed 73% (27-37) of his passes for 291 yards 

-Saints defense gave up 346 passing yards and 3 touchdowns to Sam Bradford; now face Brady

10* Play OVER the total.

-Buffalo only beat the Jets (worst team in the league) by 9 points at home last week
-defense has 6 new starters in their defensive backfield; ranked 30th in rush D efficiency in 2016
-the Bills offense averaged 30.8 points per game at home, but just 19.1 ppg on the road in 2016 

-Carolina dominated the 49ers in San Francisco in their 23-3 win last week
-offense is more dynamic now with rookie running back Christian McCaffrey catching passes
-Panthers defense is healthy, and they’ve held 8 of their last 11 opponents to 20 points or less  

9* Play PANTHERS (-).

-Stanford off a 42-24 loss at USC; head coach David Shaw is 20-4 ATS off a SU loss 
-Cardinal offense averaging 7.1 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play
-defense giving up just 24.5 points per game versus offenses that average 32.3 points per game   

-San Diego State is very young; only 11 returning starters and they lost 23 seniors from last year
-defense stepping way up in class going from 22.8 points per game opponents to 43 ppg Stanford 
-offense also stepping up in class; Stanford allows 9.8 points per game less than opponents faced

9* Play STANFORD (-).

-Georgia State faced Tennessee State and lost 17-10; big step-up in class for first road game
-the Panthers offense was terrible last season while averaging just 19.9 points per game
-defense gave up 238 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per rush to a FCS team  

-Penn State most experienced team in the Big Ten with 18 returning starters; 2-0 this season

-offense averaging 42.5 points per game on 7.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 6.3 yppl  
-defense allowing just 7 points per game on a minuscule 3.4 yards per play 

10* Play PENN STATE (-).

-Oregon is one of the most improved teams in the country this season
-new head coach Willie Taggart has an experienced team with 17 returning starters back
-offense has scored a total of 119 points on a whopping 8.1 yards per play in their two games 

-Wyoming’s lone win this season has come against FCS Gardner Webb
-offense only averaging 15 points per game on 4.8 yards per play; can’t trade points with Oregon
-defense has faced offenses that average 17 points per game on 4.5 yards per play; big step-up 

9* Play OREGON (-).

-Colorado State will play their first true road game of the season against a superior team
-the Rams offense only averaging 33 points per game versus defenses that give up 29 ppg
-below average stats on offense, and now facing one of the best defenses in the country

-Alabama playing second straight home game before hitting the road for their first SEC game

-offense is averaging 5.9 yards per rush versus defenses that only give up 4.3 yards per rush 
-defense is outstanding; allowing just 8.5 points per game on 4.3 yards per play  

9* Play ALABAMA (-).

-San Diego has played much better on the road recently; 10-6 ATS their last 16 away games
-Chargers out-rushed the Broncos in both 2016 meetings; Melvin Gordon fully healthy now

-defense will be very good this season, and they’ll limit scoring opportunities in this game

-Denver went 9-7 in 2016, but we expect a losing record at the end of the 2017 season
-Broncos possess a limited offense with Trevor Siemian at QB
-defense is in transition; released safety TJ Ward and pass rusher Derek Wolf (ankle) hobbling  

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

-New York’s offense was absolutely abysmal last season, and not much looks it will change
-Odell Beckham is battling a high ankle injury; insiders believe there’s a good chance he’s out
-Giants offensive line was atrocious in 2016, and that unit looks just as bad heading into 2017

-Dallas’ offense was terrific in 2016, and with the same personnel, expect more of the same
-Ezekiel Elliott was reinstated, so the Cowboys have their full compliment of weapons available
-of their 3 regular season losses last season, two came against the Giants; meaningful revenge

9* Play COWBOYS (-).

-Oakland is set to regress this season after overachieving in 2016; bad stats for a 12-win team
-Raiders were +16 in turnover margin as well; another reason to expect regression
-went 5-0 in games that were decided by 3 points or less in 2016

-Tennessee’s offense improved by 5 points per game in 2016; expect more improvement in 2017
-rushing success will open up big passing plays downfield against a terrible Oakland secondary
-Eric Decker, Corey Davis, and Taywan Taylor all upgrade the Titans skill positions significantly

10* Play TITANS (-).

-Arizona set to bounce back after failing to reach 10+ wins for the first time under HC Arians
-Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu are both healthy making the Cardinals defense formidable
-expect QB Carson Palmer to attack with the pass since Detroit’s defense is undermanned

-Detroit is set to regress after making the playoffs in 2016 while getting out-scored on the year
-Lions defense is in flux; Kerry Hyder (out for season) and Ziggy Ansah (ankle) limited
-offense is not explosive so expect few points, a lot of running and short passing plays

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

-Jacksonville will be able to run the ball on Houston with bruising rookie Leonard Fournette
-the Jaguars have a solid defense that will limit the scoring opportunities of the Texans
-both meetings were close last season (1 and 3 points), and the teams are just about the same

-Houston had the 29th ranked offense last year, and with Tom Savage starting, expect similar
-Pro Bowl LT Duane Brown is holding out, so the Texans offensive line is in flux right now
-Will Fuller (collarbone) and Jaelen Strong (suspension) won’t play, reducing the depth at WR

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

-Boise State has gone Over the total in 8 of their last 12 road games
-the Broncos are really young in the secondary, and they’ll be under siege all game long
-offense was really vanilla last week, but they have no choice but to open up in this shootout

-Washington State’s offense accounted for 511 yards in their 31-0 win over Montana State
-the Cougars scored 28 points in Boise last season; that game had 59 total points scored
-QB Luke Falk completed 55 of 71 passes, and he threw for 480 yards in the game noted above

9* Play OVER the total.

-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season
-revenge game for Horned Frogs after losing 41-38 at home in 2016 despite a 572-404 yard edge
-defense held Jackson State to just 65 total yards of offense and 1-for-13 on third downs

-Arkansas is very young; 9 true freshmen playing; 2 starting on the OL and in the secondary
-Razorbacks defense is converting from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment; not good against potent offense
-QB Austin Allen was under consistent pressure against a lesser opponent last week

9* Play TCU (-).

-Middle Tennessee State was terrible in their 28-6 home loss to Vanderbilt last week
-the Blue Raiders offense managed just 166 yards passing and 49 yards on the ground
-secondary gave up 296 passing yards on whopping 10.6 yards per attempt to Vanderbilt 

-Syracuse is experienced team with 19 returning starters in second year under HC Dino Babers 

-offense racked up 586 yards in their 50-6 win last week over Central Connecticut State
-QB Eric Dungey threw for 270 yards per game at home with a 10/4 TD/INT ratio in 2016

10* Play SYRACUSE (-).

-Kansas City went 12-4 SU in 2016, but their overall stats did not match up to that record

-QB Alex Smith will lose his job to rookie QB Patrick Mahomes; it’s just a matter of when

-Chiefs were +16 in turnover margin in 2016; a number which will certainly regress in 2017

-New England is the best team in the NFL, and there’s a decent gap back to second

-offense is loaded with speedy playmakers; more potent than ever, even without Julian Edleman-Patriots have gone 13-3 SU and 10-4-2 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

-Tennessee was -70.6 ypg in SEC play last season despite an overall 9-4 SU record

-Vols must replace dual threat QB Joshua Dobbs who accounted for most of their offense

-defense gave up 28.8 ppg on 449 ypg, including 219 rushing yards per game on 5.0 ypr

-Georgia Tech’s current roster is 5-1 SU against SEC teams

-excellent triple option rushing offense that averaged 258 ypg on 5.5 ypr last season

-head coach Paul Johnson is 6-2 ATS away from home as an underdog with this current roster

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

This game is being played on a neutral field in Arlington, Texas.  The line has gone higher since Florida suspended ten players this week, however it is an overreaction by the oddsmakers and betting public, and this has now created additional value with the underdog Gators.  Florida went 9-4 SU last year, including an impressive 30-3 Outback Bowl win over Iowa as a 3-point favorite.  This is a deep, veteran team that still has plenty of talent, even after the recent suspensions.  Starting running back Jordan Scarlett will not play, but this means second-leading rusher Lamical Perine will get more carries.  Scarlett will be joined by WR Antonio Callaway on the sidelines, however his loss might actually boost the team's morale as insiders report he was not well liked by his teammates.  Head coach Jim McElwain announced Feleipe Franks will start under center and he has a strong arm and solid pocket presence.  The posted total is a low in this game (O/U 43) which suggests a defensive, low-scoring game and that favors the underdog, especially since Florida is 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral field games with a low total in this range.

Michigan went 10-3 SU last year, but they lost 17 of their 22 starters from that team.  The Wolverines now have just five returning starters overall with only one of those being on defense. This makes them the least experienced team in FBS football.  The offense will be breaking in several new players against a strong Florida defense that allowed just 16.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play last year (versus opponents that averaged 28.6 ppg and 5.9 yppl).  Florida has been making solid strides under Jim McElwain who is now 29-8 SU entering his third year as head coach at the school.  The recent suspensions should motivate and focus the Gators on Saturday afternoon and has created line value with a strong defensive underdog.

9* Play FLORIDA (+).

South Carolina went 6-7 SU last year in Will Muschamp's first year with the school.  The defensive minded coach didn’t help the offense as that unit averaged just 20.8 points per game last year.  In 2016, South Carolina played six games away from home and averaged a meager 15 points per contest and just 296 yards of total offense.  The Gamecocks will have an extremely difficult time moving the ball consistently in this game against a strong defense like NC State.  We expect the Gamecocks to struggle this year, especially since they’ll be playing the fourth toughest schedule in the country amongst FBS teams.

NC State went 7-6 SU last season, and the team returns 17 starters which makes them the most experienced team in the ACC.  It all starts with an excellent defense that held opponents to just 22.8 points per game last season.  Their defensive line clamped down on the run holding opponents to just 109 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry.  NC State’s excellent defense is led by Bradley Chubb who ranks 12th in school history with 34 tackles for loss and 10th in school history with 16 sacks.  The Wolfpack is 12-4 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons, and 8-2 ATS over that span out of conference.  NC State is the superior team, and this pointspread is extremely cheap based on my power ratings.  We’ll back the Wolfpack in this game in Charlotte, NC on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play NC STATE (-).

Akron went just 5-7 SU last season, and they only return 15 starters for this season.  This is a group that failed miserably when they took a step up in competition.  The Zips lost 54-10 at Wisconsin last year and 41-3 at Oklahoma in 2015 in two recent "paycheck" games.  QB Thomas Woodson threw for just 108 yards in that loss to the Badgers.  Akron is 2-6 ATS the last three seasons in the month of September.  The Zips are just 3-6 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Penn State went 11-3 SU last season, and the Nittany Lions return 18 starters from a team that made the Rose Bowl.  They are the most experienced team in the Big 10 and feature an offense that returned all but one production player.  Signal caller Trace McSorley broke school single-season passing yard and touchdown records in just his first season starting.  Saquon Barkley leads a strong rushing attack that will take advantage of an Akron defense that gave up 225 rushing yards per game (5.0 yards per carry) last season.  On defense, more than 72% of the tacklers return to a unit that gave up just 25.4 points per game last season.  Head coach James Franklin is one win away from picking up number 50 in his career, and he will be able to do so in easy fashion on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PENN STATE (-).

Utah State went just 3-9 SU last season, and they only return 10 total starters for this season.  The Aggies’ biggest concerns come on the defensive line, and that’s a big negative for tonight’s game against Wisconsin.  Utah State lost four of their top five defensive lineman, including their best player from a year ago.  Even with an experienced group, the Aggies gave up 203 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush last season.  Things will be even worse this season, especially against tonight’s opponent.  Utah State also has a pedestrian offense that has averaged just 23.9, 29, and 26.9 points per game over the last three seasons.  In their out of conference road opener last season, the Aggies only scored 7 points in a 38-point loss at USC.  We expect a similar outcome tonight.

Wisconsin went 11-3 SU last season, and the Badgers return 15 starters from that team that won the Cotton Bowl.  Wisconsin is in their third season under head coach Paul Chryst, so we expect even more improvement this season.  The Badgers are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in home openers under Chryst, winning those two games by a combined score of 112-10.  Wisconsin has a powerful running game that will move the ball at will in this game.  Last season, the Badgers ran for 203 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Wisconsin also possess a very strong defense that has given up just 15.6 and 13.7 points per game over the last two seasons.  This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Badgers on Friday night. 

10* Play WISCONSIN (-).

New England is an efficient team that is extremely difficult to stop.  Overall, the Patriots are averaging 28.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up just 22.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  New England is the best scheming team in the league and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability will negate Atlanta’s pass rush which in turn makes the Patriots' passing game very dangerous.  New England’s offensive line will hold up in protection, so Brady will throw the ball all over a weak Falcons' secondary just as every other elite quarterback has done this season.  Brady and the Patriots offense will face an Atlanta defense that gives up 24.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a collection of offenses that only averaged 23.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

Atlanta’s offense is explosive, and the Falcons should once again have a terrific offensive game.  Atlanta is averaging 34.4 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Falcons’ offense was strong away from home this season where they averaged 32.5 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense has scored 30 points or more in thirteen games this season, and they are capable of doing so again in this game.  The Falcons’ offense is a big step-up in class for New England’s defense, especially at the quarterback position with Matt Ryan.  The Patriots’ have faced a slew of terrible quarterbacks and bad offenses that only averaged 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  Atlanta will be a shock to New England’s system, and there are many reasons to believe the Patriots will play their worst defensive game of the season.  Look for a high-scoring Super Bowl between the Patriots and Falcons on Sunday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Pittsburgh was one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs, and after a 30-12 home win over Miami and last week’s 18-16 win in Kanas City, the Steelers are on a 9-game winning streak.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been outstanding recently as they’ve scored 24 points or more in nine of their last ten games.  They should have done it again last week against the Chiefs, but their four red zone trips resulted in field goals, and their lone goal to go resulted in an interception in the end zone.  Overall, the Steelers’ offense is averaging 24.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s offense will be a big step-up in class for New England’s defense, especially at the quarterback position with Ben Roethlisberger.  The Patriots’ have faced a slew of terrible quarterbacks and bad offenses that only averaged 20.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Steelers will be a shock to New England’s system, and there’s many reasons to believe the Patriots will play one of their worst defensive games of the season.  

New England is an efficient team that is extremely difficult to stop.  Overall, the Patriots are averaging 27.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 23 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England is the best scheming team in the NFL, and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability will negate Pittsburgh’s pass rush which in turn makes a short passing game very dangerous.  Furthermore, if New England’s offensive line can hold up in protection, Brady will throw the ball all over the weak Steelers secondary just as he did in an earlier season meeting in Pittsburgh.  Brady completed 19 passes for 222 yards with 2 touchdowns in a 27-16 New England win; Roethlisberger did not play in that game.  Pittsburgh’s defense has faced a slew of terrible quarterbacks and bad offenses that only averaged 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Patriots will be a shock to Pittsburgh’s system, and there’s many reasons to believe the Steelers will also play one of their worst defensive games of the season.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring AFC Championship game on Sunday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Green Bay has been one of the hottest teams down the stretch as they are on an 8-game winning streak.  Unfortunately for the Packers’ offense, they lost wide receiver Jordy Nelson to a rib injury prior to their last game, and wide receiver Davante Adams injured his ankle in last week’s game.  They will likely give it a go today, but Nelson and Adams are Green Bay’s top two receivers, and their lack of health and possible ineffectiveness will make things that much harder for quarterback Aaron Rodgers in this game.  The Packers will also be playing their third road game in four weeks, and after last week’s emotional late win in Dallas, the team may not have much left to beat another excellent opponent.  The Packers’ defense has been their weakness all season, especially on the road where they are giving up 28.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play while allowing a horrible 8.3 yards per pass.

Atlanta’s offense was explosive all season, and the Falcons will once again have a terrific offensive game.  Atlanta is averaging 33.9 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Falcons’ offense was even better at home where they averaged 35.1 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense hung 33 points on the Packers’ defense in an earlier season meeting, and since Green Bay has given up 24 points or more in their last three road games, there’s no reason the Falcons won’t match the production of the first meeting.  Five of Atlanta’s six home wins this season have come by 6 points or more, so we’ll lay the points with the Falcons in the NFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play FALCONS (-).

Green Bay’s offense is averaging 28 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Packers’ offense has also traveled well this season as they are averaging 27.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 65.7% (401-610) of his passes for 4,428 yards with an excellent 40/7 touchdown/interception ratio.  Rodgers carved-up Atlanta’s secondary in the first meeting while throwing 4 touchdown passes and scoring 32 points.  Overall, the Falcons’ defense allows 26.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Packers’ defense has been their weakness all season, especially on the road where they are giving up 28.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  To win, Green Bay will have to trade points with Atlanta all game long.

Atlanta’s offense was explosive all season, and the Falcons will once again have a terrific offensive game.  Atlanta is averaging 33.9 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Falcons’ offense was even better at home where they averaged 35.1 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense hung 33 points on the Packers’ defense in an earlier season meeting, and since Green Bay has given up 24 points or more in their last three road games, there’s no reason the Falcons won’t match the production of the first meeting.  We expect a high-scoring NFC Championship game between the Packers and Falcons on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.