Cincinnati comes into this game off their bye. The Bengals are rested and ready and the long travel out to California will have zero impact. Cincinnati went into their off week off a confidence building win after losing their previous two games in overtime. The Bengals

Tampa Bay has won three consecutive games after opening the season at 0-8. The Bucs have also covered the pointspread in four consecutive games. However, Tampa Bay has played two weak teams (Dolphins and Falcons) at home and they got an extremely fortunate win in Detroit last week. The Bucs were out-gained by 161 yards (390-229) and lost the first down battle 25-10. Tampa Bay was handed 5 turnovers by the Lions which gift-wrapped that win. The Bucs were 7.5-point underdogs in that game so the fact that they are getting fewer points in this game makes absolutely zero sense as Carolina would be a decent favorite over Detroit according to my power ratings. Tampa Bay was already crushed by Carolina this season, losing 31-13 at home as 6.5-point underdogs. Again, adjusting for home field, this line makes absolutely zero sense based upon the recent meeting between these two teams.

Carolina has won 8 of their last 9 games by a combined score of 222-93. They are playing at an elite level right now, and many people still haven

Texas A&M is off a dreadful game at LSU last week. The Aggies scored just 10 points as QB Johnny Manziel played the worst game of his collegiate career. Manziel finished with just 16 completions from 41 pass attempts for 224 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Texas A&M was off a bye for that game, and their offense showed rust as they simply could not get into any type of rhythm. We expect a more fluid Aggies

Clemson comes into this game at 10-1 SU with their lone loss this season came to arguably the best team in the country when Florida State beat the Tigers 51-14. We picked the Seminoles to win and cover that game so the result is easily excusable. In their other ten games, Clemson owns a +28 scoring margin per game which shows how dominant they

Baylor comes into this game at TCU off their first loss of the season. The Bears were blown out at Oklahoma State (49-17), and that loss will leave them with a hangover for this game on Saturday afternoon. Baylor has an explosive offense, but they

This is a big game between East Carolina and Marshall as the winner will go on and represent the East division in the Conference USA championship game. East Carolina is 9-2 on the season, including a solid 4-1 record on the road. The Pirates two losses have come by a combined 8 points; they lost by 5 points (15-10) to Virginia Tech and by 3 points in overtime at Tulane. That close loss to Virginia Tech is impressive and East Carolina owns wins over other major conference teams like North Carolina and North Carolina State. The Pirates have a strong offense that averages 41.5 points and 461.6 yards per game; they scored 65 points on Marshall in last year

This is an important game between Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Both teams are 5-6 on the season and the loser most likely falls out of playoff contention. The Steelers have won three straight games and five of their last seven games overall after starting the season at 0-4. A 19-16 home win over the Ravens came during that stretch. The rematch comes on Thursday night, and we don

Oakland is just 4-7 on the season, and they are in a tough scheduling spot for this game. The Raiders will be playing their third game in 11 days and their third road game over the last four weeks. They are also traveling on a short week with just 4 days in between games. Oakland is playing with Matt McGloin at quarterback, and observant scouts have been impressed with his last two games. He had to face two strong passing defenses, but now he gets to face a dreadful Dallas secondary that has allowed 22 TD passes on the season which ranks them #30 in the NFL. Overall, the Dallas defense is allowing 6.2 yards per play and 7.2 yards per pass attempt. McGloin and the Oakland offense will be able to score points on the poor Cowboys

Green Bay

San Francisco won five consecutive games in a month

Denver easily beat Kansas City last week on Sunday night. That was a big win for the Broncos as it was a division game and it was also against the lone undefeated team left in the NFL. But the Broncos are in a tough spot this week as they must travel to New England to face an irritated Patriots team returning home off a road loss in Carolina. The Patriots have been outstanding off a loss; they are 30-12-1 ATS their last 43 games when playing off a SU loss. Denver

Carolina has won 7 of their last 8 games by a combined score of 202-77. They are playing at an elite level right now, and not many people have noticed. Over their last four games, Carolina has been a dominating team. They

San Diego comes into this game on a 0-3 SU and ATS slide. However, the Chargers were competitive in all three of those losses as all three games were decided by 8 points or less, including an overtime loss at Washington. The Chargers were flat in Miami last week but that was expected after they lost a divisional showdown game at home to Denver the week before. With this game in Kansas City being a division game, we can expect a full effort by the Chargers. San Diego

Tampa Bay comes in off back-to-back wins over Miami and Atlanta. The Bucs had strong offensive efforts in those games as they scored a total of 63 points; they scored a total of 124 points in their previous eight games. The Bucs

Oklahoma State beat us last week as they went into Texas and won 38-13 as 3-point road favorites. That game turned on a single play right before the end of the first half. Texas dropped a sure interception in the end zone and Oklahoma State caught the tipped ball for a gift touchdown. Texas threw a pick 6 on their next possession with just 21 seconds left in the half. Oklahoma State went from a 14-10 lead to a 28-10 halftime lead in just one minute. Oklahoma State is throwing for just 7.0 yards per pass attempt which ranks them #71 in the country. They are only converting on 37.4% (#82) of their third down attempts. With poor numbers like that, Oklahoma State

Vanderbilt continues to improve under HC James Franklin. The Commodores won just 4 total games in the two seasons prior to Franklin

BYU comes into this game against Notre Dame playing outstanding football. The Cougars have won six of their last seven games with their lone loss coming by just 10 points at Wisconsin. BYU has one of the toughest offenses to defend. The Cougars rush for 248 yards per game which is #14 in the country and they are #11 in total offense, averaging 496 yards per game. BYU owns a +93.1 net rushing differential this season and they will have no problem running on a Notre Dame team that owns a -11.2 net rushing differential. The Cougars also have a fantastic defense that ranks #24 in the country in allowing just 22 points per game. They hold their opponents to only 4.8 yards per play (#22) and 6.1 yards per pass attempt (#13).

Notre Dame does come into this game off a bye, but that won

Nebraska

Michigan State comes into this game with an impressive 9-1 record. The Spartans only loss was a 17-13 setback at Notre Dame. This team wins with defense as they allow just 13.2 points per game on 228 yards of total offense. But as good as Michigan State has been on defense this season, they have struggled mightily on offense. The Spartans are #95 in total offense at 359 yards per game and #101 in the country in averaging only 4.8 yards per play. The Spartans have struggled big time in the passing game as they are ranked #106 in the country only averaging 5.8 yards per pass attempt and they are #104 in passing yards per game, averaging just 180 yards thru the air. Those are some terrible numbers, especially for a team laying a full touchdown on the road.

Northwestern has lost 6 straight games coming into Saturday, but they are much better than their record indicates. Some of their losses are excusable after they lost their big home game against Ohio State. The hangover lingered for awhile, but the Wildcats are over it now. Northwestern has one of the best offenses in the country and they are #1 in red zone scoring with a success rate of 100%. The Wildcats run for 176 yards per game and they

Oklahoma lost SU at home to Kansas State last season as a double digit favorite. HC Bob Stoops and the Sooners will be looking for revenge, especially since they are an underdog in this game. Oklahoma will start Trevor Knight at quarterback after losing Blake Bell to a concussion in last week

UNLV comes into tonight

New Orleans hosted Atlanta in the season opener and the Saints held on for a 23-17 win. The rematch tonight has a different vibe now that the Falcons are just 2-8 on the year after going 13-3 last season. Atlanta

Northern Illinois is undefeated at 10-0 and they are looking to make another appearance in a BCS bowl. Last season the Huskies played in the Orange Bowl and lost 31-10 to Florida State. This year, Northern Illinois has played an extremely easy schedule with their best win coming at Iowa in the season opener way back on August 31st. The Huskies have faced a slew of terrible defenses this season so they

New England comes in off their bye week after crushing the Steelers 55-31 in their previous game. Bettors are flocking to the Patriots in this game for a few reasons, and we simply disagree with their thinking. Many believe the Patriots

Kansas City is the lone unbeaten team remaining in the NFL. The Chiefs are 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS; they

After five consecutive SU wins by San Francisco, they lost 10-9 as 6-point home favorites to the Panthers last Sunday. That loss was not a surprise as we actually had a Best Bet on Carolina in that game. The 49ers will bounce back strong off that defeat, especially in a spot very few give them a chance. San Francisco

New York has won two out of their last three games while going Over the total in all three of those games. The Jets played three high-powered offenses (Patriots, Bengals, and Saints) which are why the games went Over; New York allowed 27, 49, and 20 points. New York comes in off their bye week so we expect their defense to play much better in this game against Buffalo. The Jets have a weak offense that ranks #28 in the league in scoring at 18.8 points per game. They

This is a rematch from the season opener when the Eagles beat the Redskins 33-27 in Washington as 4-point underdogs. Washington has alternated wins and losses over their last six games, and since they come off a loss, their performance pattern suggests a big effort is coming. The Redskins 3-6 record may not reflect it, but Washington has one of the better offenses in the NFL this season. They rank in the Top 10 in points per game (25.6), yards per game (410), yards per play (5.8), third down conversions (46%), red zone touchdowns (65%), and touchdowns per game (3.2). Washington is averaging 31 points and 425 yards of total offense per game over their last four games. Last week

Oregon State comes in with a 6-3 SU record, but a losing 4-5 mark ATS. The Beavers are off back-to-back home losses to Stanford and USC and we see this team continuing to head in a downward spiral. They do come off a bye, but that

Miami Fla opened their season with seven consecutive wins, but they

Oklahoma State is in a bad scheduling spot for this game at Texas as it will be their final road game of the season with a pair of revenge games at home on deck against Baylor and Oklahoma. This will also be Oklahoma State

Both teams come into tonight

Georgia Tech has been a team of runs this season. The Yellow Jackets opened the season with 3 straight wins before losing their next three games in a row. They come into tonight

The two best teams in the MAC play tonight as Ball State travels to Northern Illinois for a crucial conference game. Ball State is 9-1 on the season, including a solid 4-1 record on the road. Their lone loss of the season came by just 7 points at North Texas way back in September. The Cardinals have a strong offense led by quarterback Keith Wenning who owns a solid 27/5 TD/INT ratio on the season. Ball State has a prolific passing offense that averages a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt. The Cardinals also convert on 41.1% of their third down attempts and that allows them to move the chains consistently. Ball State also has a solid defense that is holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play and just 6.1 yards per pass attempt.

Northern Illinois is undefeated at 9-0 on the season. The Huskies have played an extremely weak schedule and their best win came at Iowa (30-27) in their season opener. Since that game, the Huskies have feasted on a bunch of terrible teams; tonight

Miami comes in off a 22-20 home underdog win in overtime over Cincinnati in their last game. That win by the Dolphins snapped a 4-game losing streak after they opened the season at 3-0. There

Dallas and New Orleans will put on an entertaining game on Sunday night. The Cowboys and Saints will light-up the scoreboard in the Superdome. Both teams are in the Top 10 in passing yards per game. The Cowboys throw for an average of 267 yards per game (#9) while the Saints throw for 318 yards per game (#3). The Cowboys average 28.6 points per game while the Saints average 27 points per game. New Orleans is converting 41.3% on third down and they average 7.9 yards per pass attempt which is #4 in the league. The Saints have scored 31 or more points in each of their last 3 home games, and that trend should continue on Sunday night against a bad Dallas defense.

The Cowboys have been shredded when facing strong passing teams this season. Dallas has faced San Diego, Detroit, and Denver who all have excellent passing offenses. Against those three teams, the Cowboys

Denver and San Diego will put on an offensive show on Sunday afternoon. These two teams have the #1 (Broncos) and #2 (Chargers) passing offenses in the league as well as two of the worst defenses in the league. San Diego QB Philip Rivers has completed a remarkable 72% of his passes this season which is #1 in the NFL; Denver QB Peyton Manning is #2 at 71%. The Broncos are averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt which is best in the league while the Chargers are averaging 8.1 yards per pass which is #2 in the league. Both offenses are also fantastic on third down as the Broncos are converting 50.5% of their attempts and the Chargers are right behind them at 47.9%.

Both defenses have been terrible this season. The Broncos are allowing 27.2 points per game to opponents that only average 21.7 points per game. Denver is #21 in the league in allowing opponents to average 5.6 yards per play. They give up 7.3 yards per pass attempt which ranks them at #26. The Chargers

Carolina comes into this game in San Francisco as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Panthers are riding a 4-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. Carolina

Cincinnati and Baltimore are two teams going in different directions. The Bengals have won four of their last five games and they could very well be riding a 5-game winning streak if not for a loss on a safety last Thursday night in Miami. Meanwhile, the Ravens are on a 3-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. Cincinnati has the motivation coming off a loss and they also had extra time to prepare since their last game was on a Thursday night. The Bengals also have the better team on both sides of the ball. They rank #8 in the NFL while averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals convert 43.3% of their third downs which ranks them #7 in the league. Defensively, Cincinnati only allows opponents to average 4.9 yards per play (#4) and 5.9 yards per pass attempt which is also 4th best in the NFL.

Baltimore has struggled as expected this season. The Ravens only average 21 points per game, and they

Notre Dame comes in with a 7-2 SU record, but a losing 3-5-1 mark ATS. The Fighting Irish have played five of their nine games at home and one neutral site game. They

After a 21-point loss at home to Mississippi on September 14th, it was looking as if Texas would struggle to get to a bowl game this season. Fast forward five weeks and the Longhorns are one of the hottest teams in the country. Texas has won 5 straight games, including SU underdog wins versus Oklahoma and at TCU. The Longhorns travel to Morgantown with revenge on their minds after losing 48-45 to West Virginia as 7-point home favorites last season. The Texas offense has been potent as they are averaging 32 points per game. They convert on an impressive 44.2% of their third down attempts and they will be facing a West Virginia defense that is allowing opponents to convert 45% on third down; that ranks the Mountaineers #97 in the country. The Longhorns average over 200 yards rushing and passing while throwing for 7.4 yards per pass attempt.

West Virginia has struggled on both sides of the ball this season. They are only managing to score 23.6 points per game; last year they averaged 39 points per game. They only throw for 6.3 yards per pass attempt (#96 in the country) and covert only 31.5% on third down (#107). The Texas defense only allows 23.6 points per game. They have held their opponents to 5.2 yards per play and 6.5 yards per pass, #26 in the country in both categories. West Virginia

Arkansas HC Bret Biliema has had a rough first year in the SEC. Biliema is finding his system, which worked well in the power football of the Big 10 conference, is not suited for the personnel that he has in place currently at Arkansas. The current players are more suited for a faster, quick-paced offense. Things have continued to spiral for Arkansas. They have been out-scored by a combined 169-34 over their last four games. They have lost 6 straight games while going just 1-5 ATS during that span. The Razorbacks

Oregon has looked unstoppable so far this season. The Ducks come into tonight

Washington has alternated wins and losses over their last six games. The Redskins come in off a win in their last game so if their pattern continues, we can expect a lesser performance tonight. Washington is also off three consecutive high-scoring games, including a dramatic overtime win last week against the Chargers. Now Washington must take to the road on a short week and lay points into a desperate Minnesota team; this is not an ideal setup and situation for the Redskins. Washington also has a terrible defense that is allowing 31.6 points per game to offenses that average 28.1 points per game. The Redskins have given up 141 points in four games since their bye week.

Minnesota returns home off a close 27-23 loss at Dallas. That close loss by the Vikings was a positive sign considering they lost their previous three games by 13 points or more. Minnesota has historically played on a strong home field inside the Metrodome, but they are 0-3 at home this season. However, two of those losses came to Carolina and Green Bay with the other coming to Cleveland in a close 31-27 loss. Minnesota is finally getting a team on their level at home, and this is a very winnable game for the Vikings. They were 7-point favorites over the Browns and 2.5-point favorites over the Panthers; those two teams are better than Washington. There

These are the two best teams in the MAC East as Ohio and Buffalo both come into this game at 6-2 SU overall. Ohio is 3-1 in conference play while Buffalo is a perfect 4-0 in conference play. The Bobcats haven

Chicago comes into tonight

Both teams come into this game off their bye, but the two teams heading into their off week in different directions. The Colts scored a huge 39-33 home upset win over the previously unbeaten Broncos prior to their bye. The Texans lost a close game in Kansas City to head into their off week on a 5-game losing streak. There

San Diego comes into this game off a bye week so they are fresh and the travel east will not impact them. The Chargers are off back-to-back wins over the Colts and Jaguars in which they had good defensive efforts. But the Colts had their worst offensive game of the season (267 total yards) and the Jaguars are simply the worst team in the NFL. The Chargers did allow 353 yards to the Jaguars which is 67 yards more than Jacksonville averages. Those two games are not a true indication of how bad the Chargers

Kansas City has looked impressive in the win/loss column, but a deeper investigation reveals some major flaws being masked by their wins. The Chiefs are the phoniest 8-0 team in recent NFL memory. Kansas City has played a woeful schedule as their opponents are a collective 20-41 SU on the season; none of their eight opponents have a record better than .500 this year. The Chiefs

Tennessee comes into this game with a 4-4 overall record, both SU and ATS. The Volunteers are winless on the road at 0-3 but they

Iowa State finds themselves in a tough spot this week. The Cyclones are playing their third road game over the last four weeks and they

Mississippi State has not been impressive at all this season despite their winning 4-3 record. Two of their four wins this season have come against Alcorn State and Troy. Their other two wins came by 1-point over Bowling Green and by 6 points at home against a poor Kentucky team. The Bulldogs are on a money burning 1-7 ATS run as an SEC road underdog and we don

The Dolphins have struggled offensively this season and they were shutout 24-0 in the second half last Sunday at New England after building a 17-3 halftime lead. It is unlikely that the Dolphins will suddenly fix their offensive woes with just three days to prepare for this Thursday night game. Overall, Miami is averaging only 311 total yards per game and just 5.3 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 348 yards and 5.5 yppl). The Dolphins have been particularly bad running the ball, averaging only 89 rushing yards per game.

Miami will now be facing a solid Cincinnati defense that held the Jets to just 9 total points last week and overall is permitting only 18.0 points per game this season and just 5.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 23.3 ppg and 5.6 yppl). Cincinnati has been especially strong versus the pass, allowing just 5.8 yards per pass this year (versus opponents that average 6.6 ypp). This solid secondary is important tonight versus a Miami offense that is throwing for 71% of their total yards this season.

Miami is a decent defensive team and this is a tough scheduling spot for the Bengals who must travel and play on just three days rest. Cincinnati is the better team and they hold a significant statistical matchup edge, but the situation favors Miami as the home team on a short week, so the best way to play this game tonight looks to be the total as I expect both defenses to play well.

9* Play UNDER (Bengals/Dolphins).

The public is heavy on Cincinnati as a small favorite tonight due to the fact the Bearcats at 5-2 SU this season, while Memphis is just 1-5 SU. However, the records are misleading as Memphis has played a much tougher schedule and when adjusting this season's statistics based on opponents played, the Tigers actually rate the overall stat edge tonight. We also get the much better defensive team as a home underdog this evening.

This is the biggest game of the season for Memphis. The team will not qualify for any postseason action, so this is basically the Tigers' "Bowl" game on national TV tonight. The matchup is also favorable as Memphis is a run-based, defensive home team getting points as an underdog. The Tigers have quietly put together an excellent stop unit this season, allowing just 22.5 points per game and 4.7 yards per play (versus opponents that average 33.0 ppg and 6.0 yppl).

Cincinnati is an overrated offensive team that has taken advantage of weak opponents this season. The Bearcats are averaging 34.0 points per game and 6.3 yards per play, but it is very misleading as they have faced a schedule of terrible defensive teams that permit 36.6 ppg and 6.4 yppl. When factoring strength of schedule and opponent's statistical averages, Memphis actually rates the overall edge tonight and they present value as a home underdog in this national TV game.

9* Play MEMPHIS (+).

This game is a major mismatch as Seattle is the much better team on both sides of the ball, plus St. Louis will now be without starting quarterback Sam Bradford who is out with a knee injury. While Seattle should win this game easily, there is no value laying double-digits on the road, especially as this line is now approaching two full touchdowns. In fact, double-digit home underdogs have been a long-term 60% ATS play in this situation, so while the matchup favors Seattle, the technical situation favors the Rams.

The safer play is the total in this game and the Under presents value as the Rams will likely struggle offensively with backup quarterback Kellen Clemens under center. Clemens has been an awful during this eight year NFL career with the Jets and Rams. Clemens has a terrible 51.2% completion percentage and has barely averaged 6.0 yards per pass with a negative 7/13 TD/INT ratio and a career 62.2 QB rating. Clemens will now be facing a strong Seattle pass defense that is allowing just 5.5 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that average 6.5 ypp). Making matters worse for St. Louis is the fact they have no running game this season since losing veteran RB Steven Jackson to Atlanta in the off-season. Jackson had rushed for 1,000+ yards in each of the past eight seasons, but now the Rams are averaging only 71 rushing yards per game as a team this year and an awful 3.2 yards per rush (versus opponents that allow 4.2 ypr). St. Louis will struggle to move the ball tonight and their lack of a passing attack means a quick score or a late garbage touchdown in this game is not likely.

Seattle is a run-based offense and they will look to establish their ground game tonight which will keep the clock moving and shorten this game. The Seahawks will also become more conservative if they establish a double-digit lead which is likely in this game. Seattle averages 154 rushing yards per game, but they still have some issues on their offensive line. The Seahawks have been strong defensively this season, allowing just 16.6 points per game and only 4.8 yards per play (versus opponents that average 21.0 ppg and 5.4 yppl).

9* Play UNDER the total.

Green Bay waxed Cleveland last week 31-13 despite missing some of their better offensive players. That was the Packers third straight win and ATS cover and they should add to those totals after this game on Sunday night in Minnesota. The Packers

Washington got off to a slow start this season because QB RG III missed all of the preseason. His first game action came in the season opener so the sluggish start for the Redskins was expected. However, RG III and the Redskins

Dallas comes in off back-to-back wins over division rivals Washington and Philadelphia. The Cowboys had poor offensive efforts in those games, but we attribute that to the familiarity of the opponents. Prior to their last two games, Dallas scored a total of 100 points in their previous three games. The Cowboys

After beginning the season 3-0 SU and ATS, Miami has gone in the opposite direction by going 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 games. The Dolphins were overvalued early on this season, and with their recent downward trend, we see a team that is now undervalued in the pointspread. Aside from their 21-point loss in New Orleans, the Dolphins two losses have come by a combined 5 points; a 3-point loss to the Ravens and a 2-point loss to the Bills last Sunday. Despite losing those games, Miami played well enough to win, especially last week against the Bills since they outgained Buffalo and only allowed 178 passing yards.

New England simply does not have the same offense we

Stanford

Texas comes into this game at TCU with a nice scheduling edge as they are fresh off their bye. Their week off came at a good time as they upset Oklahoma 36-20 as 14-point underdogs in their last game.

South Carolina comes in off an upset loss at Tennessee last week. The Gamecocks were 7-point road favorites and they lost 23-21 on a last-second field goal. Despite the loss, South Carolina out-played Tennessee from the line of scrimmage as they held a 5.2-3.6 yards per rush attempt edge and a 7.5-5.0 yards per pass attempt edge. The difference was the -2 turnover margin for South Carolina. The Gamecocks also lost QB Connor Shaw to a sprained knee. Dylan Thompson will start this game at Missouri, and he replaced Shaw last year with success. Thompson started at Clemson and completed 23 of 41 passes for 310 yards and three touchdowns in South Carolina

Carolina is in tremendous form right now. The Panthers have won three of their last four games while also going 3-1 ATS in those games. Carolina has won those three games by a combined score of 103-25; the Panthers are finally starting to play to their talent level. Over their last four games, Carolina has been a dominating team. They

UL Lafayette was the preseason pick to win the Sun Belt conference. Tonight they will play at Arkansas State; the Red Wolves are the 2-time defending Sun Belt champions. This is a big game for both teams, and it

Both teams have struggled mightily this season. Minnesota comes in with a 1-4 record while New York is winless at 0-6. The Vikings will be playing their fourth game away from home and we expect tonight

Most of the focus in this game will be on the return of Peyton Manning to Indianapolis. But that only creates a distraction for Denver, and despite their perfect 6-0 record, the Broncos are not as invincible as they seem. The Broncos

Houston suffered another loss last week when the Rams beat them 38-13. That was the fourth consecutive loss for the Texans after they opened the season at 2-0. Houston took a ton of sharp money in that game, but the Texans imploded. Despite losing that game by 25 points, Houston held a 27-15 first down edge and they out-yarded the Rams by 204 yards (420-216). Incredibly, the Texans have won the stats in every game this season. Turnovers have been the issue and they have a -8 turnover margin in their last two games. Houston will start Case Keenum at quarterback, and that change should spark this team. Keenum was fantastic in the preseason for the Texans as they led the NFL in offensive yards per game (444.2), passing yards (300.2), total yards per play (6.2) and first downs per game (25). Keenum hit 68.3% (43-63) of his passes for 482 yards while averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt.

Kansas City may be the phoniest 6-0 team in recent NFL memory. The Chiefs have played a woeful schedule as their opponents are a collective 11-25 on the season; the 0-6 Jaguars and Giants are part of that group. Kansas City

The difference in talent level in the NFL is slim despite what a team

Cincinnati comes in off back-to-back wins over New England and Buffalo. The Bengals had good defensive efforts in those games, but neither the Patriots nor the Bills are playing at full capacity on offense. Two games before that Cincinnati faced the weak offenses of Cleveland and Pittsburgh. The Bengals have faced just two strong passing offenses so far this season and they allowed 24 points to the Bears and 30 points to the Packers. And that was when the Bengals

Oregon State is simply in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in California. The Beavers are playing back-to-back road games and their fourth road game in their last five games. They also have much bigger games on deck at home against Stanford and USC. This is a monumental flat spot on their schedule, especially since California is winless against FBS opponents this season. Oregon State is a pass heavy team with QB Sean Mannion who has an impressive 25/3 TD/INT ratio on the year. But Mannion

Florida State comes in with a perfect 5-0 SU record and a 4-1 mark ATS. The Seminoles have dominated their opponents, and they are #2 in the country with an average scoring margin of +40 per game. Their offense is averaging an incredible 53.6 points per game on 549 yards of total offense per game. Florida State is well-balanced as they are running for 228.2 yards per game and passing for 320.8 yards per game. The Seminoles

Last season was a debacle at Auburn, and one of their lowest moments came in a humiliating 63-21 home loss to Texas A&M. The Tigers have come a long way since that defeat and they will bring a much improved team to College Station on Saturday afternoon. HC Gus Malzahn has turned the Tigers completely around. Malzahn is known for his offensive acumen, but the biggest difference this season for Auburn has been the play of their defense. The Tigers are allowing only 18.8 points per game while giving up just 5.5 yards per play and 6.8 yards per pass. Auburn gave up 28 points per game in 2012 so the defensive improvement has been significant thus far. The Tigers

Indiana has played much better football this season than their 3-3 record indicates. The Hoosiers have alternated wins and losses on the season; they lost their last game at Michigan State. If their pattern holds up, Indiana will bounce back strong in this game at Michigan. The Hoosiers have a potent offense that is averaging 41.7 points per game versus defenses that allow 24.6 points per game. They average 8.0 yards per pass attempt and covert on 44% of their third downs. Overall, Indiana is averaging 6.2 yards per play which ranks them #22 in the country.

Michigan is in a horrendous situational and scheduling spot for this game. The Wolverines were 5-0 going into their game at Penn State last week, but they lost a 4 overtime thriller in heartbreaking fashion. Teams often suffer a letdown after their first loss of the season, and Michigan

UCLA has double revenge on Stanford after losing twice last season; 35-17 in the regular season and 27-24 in the PAC 12 title game. The Bruins have one of the most potent offenses in college football as they are averaging 46 points per game which is the 7th best number in the country. They are averaging 9.1 yards per pass attempt and converting on an impressive 56% of their third downs which ranks them #5 in the country. Overall, UCLA is putting up an average of 547 yards of offense per game on an impressive 6.5 yards per play. The Bruins also have a solid defense that allows only 18.2 points per game while holding opponents to just 4.3 yards per play (#9) and 5.7 yards per pass attempt (#8).

Stanford is not in a good spot here at all. This is a team that had legitimate National Title hopes and they saw those go away with their loss last week at Utah. Teams often suffer a letdown after their first loss of the season, and the Cardinal is just 1-2 ATS after a SU loss under HC David Shaw. Stanford

Seattle has not played well in their last three games. The Seahawks are 2-1 in those games, but they could easily be 0-3. Three weeks ago, they trailed Houston 20-3 at the half before rallying for a 23-20 win in overtime. Two weeks ago they blew a 28-23 fourth quarter lead in Indianapolis and lost 34-28. Last week, Seattle was in a battle with Tennessee in which they trailed 10-7 at the half and were tied 10-10 going into the fourth quarter. The Seahawks pulled that game out 20-13, but that is a concern, especially since they dominate teams at home. Seattle is well known for being better at home than on the road, but they are 2-1 away this season although the two wins have come by only 5 and 3 points. The Seahawks are missing two starters on the offensive line and RB Marshawn Lynch is also dealing with a hip injury. They need to run to have success, but the Cardinals only allow 91 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per rush.

Arizona comes in with a 3-3 record on the season. The Cardinals lost 32-20 in San Francisco last week, but they are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS when playing off a loss this season. Arizona is also 2-0 SU at home this season, winning both games as home underdogs. Over their last 18 home games, the Cardinals are 12-6 SU and a solid 14-4 ATS based on tonight

Miami Fla comes into tonight

These are two of the better teams in the Sun Belt conference so tonight

Indianapolis has surprised many with their 4-1 start to this season. The Colts were also a surprise team last season when they went 11-5 and made the playoffs despite being the only team to play in the postseason with a negative point differential (-30). Indianapolis owns two impressive wins over the 49ers and Seahawks with their 34-28 win over Seattle coming last week as 3-point home underdogs. The Colts were down 5 points with less than 9 minutes to play before scoring the final 11 points of the game. Off that comeback win, Indianapolis is in a difficult situational and scheduling spot as road favorites off home underdog wins are a poor long-term ATS play in the NFL. The Colts are also playing their third road game in four weeks with their second trip to the West Coast. And to make matters worse, the Colts have their big showdown with Peyton Manning

Washington is in a pretty good situational spot for this game in Dallas on Sunday night. The Redskins come in off their bye after getting their first win of the season in Oakland the last time took the field. That win gave them some confidence heading into their off week with extra time to prepare for an important divisional road game this week. HC Mike Shanahan is 14-5 ATS in divisional games with the Redskins, including a perfect 6-0 ATS versus Dallas. Washington

Green Bay came out of their bye last week with a strong performance over the Lions. The Packers only scored 22 points on the scoreboard, but they racked up 449 yards of total offense. That

Philadelphia is not in a good scheduling and situational spot for this game on Sunday in Tampa Bay. This is the 3rd consecutive road game for the Eagles and they are coming off a division road win as an underdog with two more divisional games on deck. The Eagles

St. Louis snapped their 3-game losing streak last week when they beat the lowly Jaguars 34-20. Despite the 14-point win on the scoreboard, St. Louis was unimpressive in that game, and they actually made Jacksonville look like a competitive NFL team. The Rams allowed 267 passing yards on just 16 pass completions from the QB duo of Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne. That

Texas A&M and

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Northwestern was in a tremendous scheduling and situational spot for their home game against Ohio State last week. The Wildcats were off their bye while the Buckeyes were off their tussle with Wisconsin. The game seemed to be in hand for Northwestern, and certainly the pointspread cover was, but the Wildcats blew both the SU and ATS win late. That high-scoring loss sets Northwestern up in a negative spot this week, especially since they have to travel and play at Wisconsin who is coming off their bye. Madison has not been too kind to the Wildcats under HC Pat Fitzgerald; his teams have lost their last two trips by a combined score of 111-32.

Wisconsin also comes into this game off a loss to Ohio State, but the big difference for the Badgers is the fact they

Arizona comes in off their first loss of the season; they lost 31-13 at Washington. The Wildcats own three wins over terrible teams in which they won by a combined 131-26. However, they are taking a monumental step-up in class for this game at USC. The Wildcats have been a run-heavy team as they are averaging 291.5 rushing yards per game and only 111.2 passing yards per game. But unfortunately for Arizona, they will be facing a USC rush defense that is allowing just 99.6 rushing yards per game and only 3.5 yards per rush. Arizona has to throw the ball to have success in this game, but they are only averaging 4.5 yards per pass attempt which ranks them #122 in the country.

USC will be a different team going forward as they fired lame duck HC Lane Kiffin. The interim HC will be Ed Orgeron and all reports out of Southern California have been positive.

Both teams come into tonight

Both teams come into tonight