Oregon State has had this game circled since losing 31-14 at home to USC last season.  The Beavers closed as 5.5-point home favorites in that game, so this is a legitimate revenge game for them.  Oregon State returned 14 starters from last year’s team, including future NFL quarterback Sean Mannion who is having a fantastic season.  Mannion is completing 67.2% of his passes, and he’ll be facing a young and vulnerable USC secondary that has yet to face a strong passing offense this season.  Prior to last year’s loss, this series has been quite competitive with the teams splitting the last six meetings with four of the games decided by 8 points or less.      

USC is a better team now that Lane Kiffin is gone.  Steve Sarkisian is a much better coach, but the heat is on in Los Angeles.  The Trojans are off a horrible blowout loss at Boston College, and there was no excuse for such a poor performance.  USC has had a week off since that ugly loss, so a strong bounce back effort may be expected.  However, according to insiders, the week off consisted of ‘what went wrong’ questions instead of putting the game in the past.  “I feel it every week,” Sarkisian said when asked about the pressure to win.  “Expectations, believe me, are extremely high at USC. This is a different place that way, but that's OK.”  Those quotes speak volumes to the pressure on USC in this game.  Oregon State’s defense has been terrific this season as they are giving up just 17 points per game, so getting more than a touchdown presents solid value.  Oregon State will bring their best effort in this revenge game, so we’ll take the points with the Beavers on Saturday night.   

9* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Texas-San Antonio returned one of the most experienced teams in the country this season.  The Roadrunners welcomed back 20 starters after winning 15 games over the last two seasons.  Head coach Larry Coker won a national championship at Miami, FL so he knows what to do with a good team.  The Roadrunners have played a brutal schedule so far with games at Houston, home versus Arizona, and at Oklahoma State.  Despite playing three potent offenses, Texas-San Antonio’s defense is only giving up 25.3 points per game.  The Roadrunners’ offensive numbers are skewed because of the competition, and since they are taking a major step-down in class for this game, we expect Texas-San Antonio’s best offensive production of the season, especially since they come into this game off a productive week of rest.  “Our goal is to win the conference and go to a bowl game,” said defensive coordinator Neal Neathery.  “There’s definitely a little more, ‘Hey, let’s go get this thing.’  That’s what we’ve been talking about this week.”  

Florida Atlantic is not a good football team.  The Owls come into this game with a 1-3 record.  Granted, two of their losses came at Nebraska and at Alabama, but the Owls have still played below average football when we factor in their other games against poor teams like Tulsa and Wyoming.  Florida Atlantic is averaging just 19 points per game against defenses that allow 25.4 points per game.  Texas-San Antonio’s defense has faced a group of offenses that average 37.8 points per game, so their strong defense will stymie the Owls in this game.  On defense, Florida Atlantic is giving up 34.2 points per game versus opponents that average 31.6 points per game.  The Owls are off a brutal 20-19 loss last week in Wyoming after a fumble allowed the Cowboys to kick the winning field goal with just 15 seconds left to play in the game.  Texas-San Antonio is the better team in a good spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday.   

9* Play TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (-).

Wake Forest is a team in transition.  The Demon Deacons are in their first season under new head coach Dave Clawson, and they are still learning his schemes on both sides of the ball.  Wake Forest comes into this game at 2-2 on the season, but their two wins came at home against Army and FCS Gardner-Webb.  The Demon Deacons have played a terrible slate of opponents thus far as their other two games have come against Louisiana-Monroe and Utah State.  Despite the weak schedule, Wake Forest has played below average football.  They are only averaging 20.2 points per game versus defenses that are giving up 26.4 points per game.  Wake Forest has also faced some terrible offenses, but they allowed 20.2 points per game versus opponents who only average 18.1 points per game.  Wake Forest is taking a huge step-up in class against Louisville in this game.

Louisville won convincingly 34-3 at Florida International last week.  The Cardinals return home with a lot of momentum after playing their last two games on the road.  Louisville’s offense has taken well to head coach Bobby Petrino’s system as they are averaging 38 points per game this season.  True freshman Reggie Bonnafon will start at quarterback in this game, and Petrino is excited to get him on the field:  “Since the day he got here, he’s been very mature, a quick learner, very competitive,” Petrino said.  “Every time we’ve put him into the game, he’s executed well.  He has a little bit of different flavor, with the fact that he’s very athletic and he can run.”  Bonnafon’s presence just gives the poor Wake Forest defense another dimension to game plan for, and with limited film on Bonnafon, the Cardinals’ offense has a big advantage.  Louisville’s defense has been terrific this season, allowing just 15 points per game versus opponents that average 24.4 points per game.  This game is a mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Louisville on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

UCLA has not played up to their hype yet this season.  The Bruins are 3-0 SU but they are 0-3 ATS, and because of that there’s some value in this game.  UCLA has played a much tougher schedule than it appears.  Virginia, Memphis, and Texas are better than projected, and the defenses of the Cavaliers and Longhorns have proven to be strong.  Despite playing tough opponents, UCLA’s offense is averaging 30 points per game versus defenses that are only allowing 22.7 points per game.  The Bruins will face a young and inexperienced Arizona State defense tonight, so we can expect efficient offensive production out of UCLA in this game.

Arizona State is also 3-0 SU on the season, but the Sun Devils have played a brutally bad slate of opponents so far.  Arizona State has faced FCS Weber State and a pair of FBS dregs on the road in New Mexico and Colorado.  Despite the weak opposition, the Sun Devils have underperformed as they are barely playing above average football.  Arizona State has faced a collective group of defenses that are allowing 38.7 points per game.  Things will get much tougher tonight as UCLA’s defense is only giving up 24 points per game versus offenses that are averaging 31.9 points per game.  The Sun Devils will also be without starting quarterback Taylor Kelly due to injury.  Backup QB Mike Bercovici can play, but this is a tough spot start for him.  UCLA is also playing with meaningful revenge after losing 38-33 at home to Arizona State last season.  The Bruins have yet to play to their talent, but in a spotlight game in primetime, we expect their best performance of the season.

10* Play UCLA (-).

This is a tough situational and scheduling spot for Chicago.  The Bears come into this game off a fortunate 28-20 win in San Francisco last Sunday night.  Chicago capitalized on 4 turnovers by the 49ers, and without them, it’s hard to imagine the Bears winning that game since they only had 216 yards of total offense.  The Bears are playing with a banged-up offensive unit, and that doesn’t bode well for this game against one of the best defensive fronts in football.  Chicago will be hard-pressed to have much success running the ball in this game as the Jets have held their two opponents to just 105 total rushing yards on 37 carries, good for 2.8 yards per rush.  That means Chicago has to win this game thru the air, but with a group of receivers playing with nagging injuries, that’s going to be hard, especially in their second consecutive road game while going coast to coast. 

The New York Jets could actually be 2-0 coming into this game.  They blew a 21-3 lead in Green Bay last week after dominating the Raiders with a 402-158 yardage edge in their season opener.  New York will have success running the ball in this game against a Chicago defense that has been gashed on the ground this season.  The Bears have allowed 237 rushing yards on 44 carries in their two games this season.  That equates to an ugly 5.4 yards per rush, and the Jets have the personnel to take advantage of Chicago’s defensive weakness, especially with a mobile quarterback like Geno Smith.  New York has the better running game and they also hold a solid defensive edge, so we’ll lay the short price with the Jets in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play JETS (-).

Pittsburgh has not looked sharp in their first two games.  The Steelers needed a last-second field goal to beat Cleveland, and they followed that up with an ugly 26-6 loss at Baltimore last Thursday night.  The Steelers have had extra time to prepare for this game in Carolina, so we expect a much better effort.  We also need to note that both of those games came against divisional opponents for Pittsburgh, and those teams simply know their personnel and schemes much better than tonight’s out of conference opponent will.  Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 37 times in the last game, and that’s not a successful formula for the Steelers.  Pittsburgh has a good running game with Le’Veon Bell, and he will be a major test for a Panthers’ defense that has faced two poor rushing attacks so far this season.

Carolina is 2-0 thus far this season despite most pundits predicting a regression from the Panthers.  However, neither win by Carolina came in dominating fashion as they escaped Tampa Bay with a 20-14 win and last week they beat Detroit 24-7 in a misleading margin of victory.  The Panthers only led the Lions 7-6 with 2 minutes left to play in the third quarter before extending their lead late.  While Pittsburgh’s defense has some flaws, Carolina simply does not have an explosive offense to take advantage.  The Panthers are dealing with injury issues to their skill players, and it’s unclear who will actually play in this game.  Carolina’s defense has been stout, but they are facing a different style of offense tonight, and Pittsburgh’s physical ways are a bad match-up for the Panthers.  We’ll take the points with the Steelers on Sunday night.   

9* Play STEELERS (+).

Denver and Seattle will play once again after just meeting in the Super Bowl.  That game was a 43-8 route by the Seahawks, so this is an obvious revenge game for the Broncos.  Denver’s offense was stymied by Seattle in the Super Bowl, so the Broncos are out to make amends for that awful performance.  Denver’s offense has been superb in their two games this season as they’ve scored 55 total points.  The Broncos could easily have scored more points, but they’ve cruised in the second half of both games after winning the first half by a combined score of 45-17.  Denver will not go conservative in this game as their offense will give their full effort for all four quarters.  The Broncos’ offense also gets Wes Welker back on the field after he was suspended for the first two games.  Denver has their full compliment of skill players for this game, and with motivation, we expect a big offensive game from the Broncos.

Seattle’s offense is terrific, and the Seahawks will have one of the top scoring teams in the NFL at season’s end.  They’ve scored 57 points in their two games, averaging 28.5 points per game against defenses that allow 24.8 points per game.  Denver’s defense has yet to play well despite facing a pair of mediocre offenses that are only averaging 19.5 points per game on the season.  Seattle will move the ball up and down the field on the Broncos just like they did in the Super Bowl.  Seattle comes in off a road loss in San Diego, and the Seahawks’ offense has performed extremely well when returning home off a loss.  In three such instances over the last few years, Seattle’s offense has averaged 25.7 points per game.  We have a Denver offense highly motivated to prove their Super Bowl performance was a fluke, and an explosive Seattle offense playing at home off a loss.  That combination sets up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore bounced back strong as expected last Thursday night as they dominated Pittsburgh in a 26-6 win.  The Ravens have had extra time to get ready for another divisional opponent, so we expect another big effort in this game.  Baltimore has had this game circled since losing 24-18 in Cleveland last November.  Prior to that loss, the Ravens had won the nine previous games against Cleveland by an average of 12.1 points per game.  Baltimore’s defense has been terrific in their two games this season, allowing just 14.5 points per game against opponents that average 20.8 points per game.  The Ravens’ defense is taking a major step-down in class as they’ll be facing skill players from the Browns that rank dead last in the NFL based upon fantasy football grading guidelines. 

Cleveland played way over their heads for the second consecutive week in their 26-24 win over the Saints on the last play of the game.  Had New Orleans punched the ball into the end zone from the 4-yard line with about 3 minutes left to play, Cleveland would have been down 8 points and most likely would have lost.  Cleveland has played in emotional draining, last-second games in the first two weeks.  The Browns lost in Pittsburgh 30-27 in the season opener after giving up the winning field goal as time expired.  Off those back-to-back high-scoring games, we expect major regression from Cleveland, especially since they are facing a much better defensive team.  The Browns took advantage of two poor defensive teams in Pittsburgh and New Orleans, but they’ll be hard-pressed in having much success against the stout Baltimore defense.  Baltimore is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the short price with the Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAVENS (-).

Washington is a better team without RGIII at quarterback.  We saw that last week after he got injured and Kirk Cousins took over.  The Redskins dominated the hapless Jaguars and won 41-10 after Cousins completed 22 of his 33 passes for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Washington’s offense also ran for 191 yards in that game, and with balance to the run and pass, the Redskins can move the ball consistently under Cousins.  Washington will face a poor Philadelphia defense that has allowed 44 points in their two games thus far.  These divisional opponents played in a pair of close games last season with Philadelphia squeaking out a 6-point win on the road and an 8-point win at home.  The Redskins were a dysfunctional team last year, so the close games against the Eagles bodes well for this year, especially since Washington looks improved in 2014.  

Philadelphia is 2-0, but they could very well be 0-2 on the season.  The Eagles fell way behind in both games; they trailed Jacksonville 17-0 and trailed Indianapolis 20-6.  Philadelphia showed some grit in coming back to win both games, but they can’t expect the comebacks to continue.  This is also a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Philadelphia.  The Eagles are not only coming off the back-to-back come from behind wins, but they are also coming off a Monday night game in which they won SU as a road underdog.  Now the Eagles are facing a division opponent and laying a handful of points on a short week.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take Washington plus the points on Sunday afternoon.  

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

Louisiana Lafayette may be a good team in the Sun Belt conference this season, but they are once again out-classed in this game.  We played against the Ragin’ Cajuns last week and won an easy Best Bet selection on Mississippi in their 56-15 romp.  Now Lafayette must take to the road again and travel out to Boise and play in elevation on the quirky blue turf after taking a beaten by a physical SEC team.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have a bye next week before opening conference play, so this is basically a ‘throwaway’ game with an eye towards easier opponents.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years.  Besides last week’s 41-point drubbing, they lost 34-14 at a terrible Arkansas team last season, and they got waxed 65-24 at Oklahoma State the season before.  The Ragin’ Cajuns’ defense is a mess as they’ve allowed 104 points and 1,087 yards of offense in their last two games.  

Boise State returns home off a solid win at Connecticut last week.  The Broncos were playing cross country in an early start game and they still put up 38 points.  Boise State has always been a much stronger team on their home field, and against a poor defense like Lafayette, we expect the Broncos to produce their best offense of the season.  Boise State is averaging 29.3 points per game versus opponents that only give up 21.7 points per game.  The Broncos’ defense has also been impressive in holding teams to just 26.7 points per game despite those offenses averaging 31.8 points per game collectively.  Boise State will not play another home game until October 17th, so they will bring their best effort in front of their loyal fans.  We’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Mississippi State has had this game circled since losing 59-26 at home to LSU last season.  On the surface, that result looks like a dominating 33-point blowout win by LSU.  That game was anything but.  LSU only led 31-26 going into the fourth quarter before Mississippi State self imploded.  The Tigers scored 28 points over the final 15 minutes of the game to make the score look like a lopsided win.  Mississippi State put up 468 yards of offense in that game, including 216 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per rush.  The Bulldogs return 8 starters from last year’s offense, so they know they can have success against LSU’s defense.  This year, the Bulldogs are averaging 43.7 points per game against opponents who only allow 23.3 points per game.  Mississippi State’s offense is averaging 6.7 yards per play, so they will move the ball on the Tigers.        

LSU has won their last two games by a combined score of 87-0.  However, the Tigers have played nothing in terms of competition in those wins over FCS Sam Houston State and Louisiana Monroe.  The Tigers were challenged in their season opener as they only beat Wisconsin 28-24.  LSU needed 15 fourth quarter points to win that game; the Tigers allowed the Badgers to run for 268 yards on 6.9 yards per rush.  LSU only returned 12 starters from last year’s 10-win team, and the early season results may not be a true indication that this current team is a dominant bunch.  Mississippi State will bring their best effort in this revenge game, so we’ll take the points with the Bulldogs on Saturday night.   

9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+).

Massachusetts is not a good football team; they come into this game at 0-3.  The Minutemen do appear to be a competitive bunch this season with back-to-back 3-point losses, but those margins of defeat look much better than they actually are.  UMass was drilled 30-7 by a bad Boston College team in their season opener, and then they lost to Colorado and at Vanderbilt.  All three opponents are dregs, so the Minutemen are taking a huge step-up in class against Penn State in this game.  UMass will also be without their leading rusher, Jamal Wilson, after he broke his ankle in their last game.  His replacement is a true freshman, and this comment from head coach Mark Whipple isn’t exactly promising: “I can’t say I have much confidence now. I’d be lying and I’m not a liar,” Whipple said when asked about the new running back.  The Minutemen are also inexperienced along the offensive line as they will start a true freshman, a Juco transfer, and a career backup in this game.   

Penn State is trending up, and that began with the hire of head coach James Franklin.  He turned Vanderbilt into a relevant football team while he was there, and he’s doing the same for the Nittany Lions.  Penn State is 3-0 against three decent opponents, and their play on defense has been terrific.  Penn State is only allowing 12.3 points per game versus opponents that average 22.9 points per game.  The Minutemen offense has been poor despite playing a slate of weak defenses; UMass is only scoring  25.3 points per game versus teams that allow 31.6 points per games.  Penn State’s offense will explode against a terrible Massachusetts defense that has given up 35 points per game against offenses that average just 23.7 points per game.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Penn State on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play PENN STATE (-).

Florida was one of our selections last week, and we lost when the Gators won SU but failed to cover the spread against Kentucky.  The Gators were sluggish in that game, perhaps to their historical dominance of Kentucky, and maybe they were just peaking ahead to this game against Alabama.  Whatever the reason, we have no hesitation in backing the Gators again this week, especially since they are a double digit underdog.  Florida is a much improved team this season, and they hold a ton of value after slogging thru an injury riddled 4-8 season last year.  The Gators now possess an offense that can move the ball consistently, and their defense is always one of the best in the SEC.  Despite their awful 2013, Florida was only a double digit underdog twice; they lost by 5 points at South Carolina and got drilled by Florida State just like everybody else.

Alabama comes into this game at 3-0 SU, but they are 0-3 ATS.  That is a major red flag considering Alabama played three inferior opponents that all have poor defenses.  Alabama is taking a major step-up in defensive class in this game, so asking them to win this game by more than two touchdowns is asking an awful lot.  The Crimson Tide’s defense was carved up by West Virginia QB Clint Trickett in the season opener; he threw for 365 yards on the inexperienced Alabama secondary.  Alabama will be without their starting safety in the first half after he was ejected for an illegal hit in their last game, and his backup is out with an injury.  That leaves a shaky unit quite thin, and Florida has the personnel to attack thru the air.  Florida will put everything they have into this game since they have a bye on deck, so we’ll take the big points with the Gators on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play FLORIDA (+).

Tampa Bay and Atlanta both come in off losses last week, so we can expect a good effort from both teams.  The Buccaneers are 0-2 on the season despite being a home favorite in both games.  Tampa Bay closed as 5.5-point favorites over Carolina in the season opener, and last week the Bucs closed as 4-point favorites over St. Louis.  The Bucs played in two competitive games as a total of 8 points decided those games.  Now Tampa Bay hits the road for a divisional game, and they are catching 6 points.  That number is certainly inflated because the oddsmakers know the public is going to back the high-scoring Falcons in this game.  New Tampa Bay head coach Lovie Smith is a defensive-minded coach, and even though the Bucs are dealing with some injury issues to their stop unit, we expect Tampa Bay to contain Atlanta’s passing game.  The Bucs have a strong running game, and since Atlanta has a poor defense, playing ball control and shortening the game will be Tampa Bay’s way of keeping the Falcons’ offense off the field.   

Atlanta got crushed last week in Cincinnati; the Falcons lost 24-10.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Bengals in that game, and we have no hesitation in playing against the Falcons once again, especially since they are laying points in this game.  Atlanta’s defense has been awful, allowing a league-high 944 yards in two games.  The Falcons’ rush defense is extremely poor, allowing 283 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per rush and 5 touchdowns on the ground so far.  Tampa Bay’s strength is running the ball, and the Bucs will hold a big edge in the trenches in this game.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay on Thursday night.

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Auburn has played fantastic football under head coach Gus Malzahn.  In his two years, the Tigers are 14-2 with their losses coming in the National Championship game to Florida State and at LSU; the Tigers were double digit underdogs in both games.  Malzahn is one of the best coaches in college football, and it’s tough to go against his teams.  However, this is an extremely difficult spot for Auburn, and the line is simply inflated.  My power ratings only make Auburn a 3-point favorite in this game, so there’s some tremendous value on Kansas State, especially at +7 or more.  Auburn has played two home games thus far, and against the one decent team they faced (Arkansas), the game was tied in the third quarter before Auburn pulled away late.  The Tigers closed as 17-point favorites in that game after a flood of money came in against Auburn, so for them to somewhat struggle at home is not a good sign, especially since they are laying points in their first road game against a good out of conference opponent.

Kansas State is also 2-0 on the season with a home win over FCS Stephen F. Austin and a road win at Iowa State.  The Wildcats come into this game off a 12-day break (Auburn does as well), but we actually give a big edge to Kansas State in this scheduling situation.  Head coach Bill Snyder is a master game planner with extra time, and his teams are always ready when playing as a home underdog.  In fact, Kansas State is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog since Snyder returned in 2009, winning six of those games SU.  Overall, Snyder has won SU 13 times as an underdog since returning, and tonight’s game provides an excellent chance at adding to that number.  Insiders are sure that Kansas State played vanilla offense in their first two games with Snyder’s eye on this Auburn game.  They believe Snyder will unleash the Wildcats in this game as this game is their entire season.  We respect Auburn and Malzahn immensely, but the points and situation are too good to pass up, so we’ll take Kansas State on Thursday night.  

9* Play KANSAS STATE (+).

Philadelphia and Indianapolis both showed last week that their offenses can score points fast and in bunches.  The Eagles were shutout in the first half before erupting for 34 second-half points against the Jaguars.  Philadelphia ran 82 plays in that game which is an indication they play fast in hopes of wearing their opponent’s defense down.  The Eagles get an easy defensive opponent in this game as the Colts are ravished with injuries and simply void of much talent.  The Eagles’ offense will thrive on the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Colts are going from the methodical and precision of the Broncos’ offense to the fast and furious Philadelphia offense.  That change in pace will be too much for the Colts’ defense.

Indianapolis only scored 7 points in the first half last week against Denver, but like the Eagles, the Colts played their best offense in the second half when they scored 17 points.  Quarterback Andrew Luck completed 35 of his 53 passes for 370 yards, and we expect him to have another big game.  The Broncos’ defense is significantly better than the Eagles’ defense, so Luck and the Colts’ offense will produce points in all four quarters.  Philadelphia allowed a terrible Jacksonville offense to throw for 266 yards last week, so they’ll have little shot in preventing Luck from having a big game thru the air.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Eagles and Colts on Monday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Chicago unexpectedly lost 23-20 in overtime at home as 7-point favorites to Buffalo last week.  The Bears came out flat in that game, and they were playing catch-up for the majority of the game.  But with a game under their belts, we expect a much better effort from the Bears in this game, especially since they are off a loss and playing a spotlight game on Sunday night.  We expect Chicago to be fighting for a playoff spot later this season, so they certainly have the talent to hang with San Francisco.  Despite losing, the Bears’ offense put up tremendous numbers as they gained 427 yards while QB Jay Cutler completed 34 of his 49 passes for 349 yards.  Chicago’s potent offense will face a depleted 49ers’ defense, so we expect the Bears to move the ball consistently in this game.

San Francisco is off a misleading 28-17 win over Dallas last week.  The 49ers were handed that win thanks to four Dallas turnovers.  San Francisco only had 316 yards of total offense while giving up 382 yards of total offense to the Cowboys.  The 49ers’ defense escaped a bad outing in part to the ineptitude of the Dallas offense, but they won’t get any breaks in this game against Chicago.  The 49ers are without their three best defenders as Navorro Bowman (knee), Glenn Dorsey (biceps), and Aldon Smith (suspension) leave San Francisco’s top stop unit a shell of itself.  Both San Francisco cornerbacks also suffered injuries last week, so the 49ers’ defense is quite vulnerable in this game.  We’ll take the generous points with the Bears on Sunday night.

9* Play BEARS (+).

Miami and Buffalo both come into this game off upset wins as underdogs last week.  The Dolphins beat New England 33-20 as 3.5-point home underdogs while the Bills beat Chicago 23-20 in overtime as 7-point road underdogs.  Miami’s win over the Patriots was much bigger since that was a division game.  They are now in a bad situational spot, especially since they are on the road.  The Dolphins always put their best efforts into the New England games, so there’s reason to expect regression in this game against the Bills.  The Dolphins trailed 20-10 at the half, so they had to exert a lot of energy in that come back win.      

Buffalo showed a lot of grit in their comeback win in Chicago last Sunday.  The Bills blew a lead early and a lead late, before gutting out the win in overtime.  That win is a big confidence booster, especially since the Bills will play this game on their home field.  Buffalo ran the ball extremely well last week as they had 193 yards on 33 rushes.  That bodes well for this game considering Miami allowed the Patriots to average 4.4 yards per rush last week.  Miami also beat New England last season, and the following week the Dolphins played in Buffalo and lost 19-0.  We expect another flat game from Miami, so we’ll take Buffalo in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play BILLS (-).

NOTE:  The Giants have moved from +2 to Pick/-1 this morning.  New York would still be a 3% play at the current line of Pick/-1.

Arizona is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in New York against the Giants.  The Cardinals played at home on Monday night, and they were fortunate in beating San Diego 18-17 after scoring a touchdown with just over 2 minutes left in the game.  Now the Cardinals must wheel back on a short week and travel to the opposite coast and play an early start game.  Arizona is also playing with a shorthanded defense, so it makes no sense that the Cardinals are favored in this game.

New York also played last Monday night, but the Giants were noncompetitive in their 35-14 loss in Detroit.  The Giants expended very little energy in that game, and with a return home off an ugly spotlight loss, we expect a much improved effort in this game.  New York’s defense is better than what they showed in their season opener, and since they will be playing a fatigued Arizona offense, the Giants will be able to limit the Cardinals’ offensive production.  New York’s offense also has to play better, and they have no excuses in this game against the limited Arizona defense.  If these two teams played last week, New York would have been a 2-point home favorite.  But after last week’s results, there has been an overreaction which has created value in the pointspread.  We’ll take the value with the Giants at home in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play GIANTS (+).

New Orleans and Cleveland both lost their season openers, and of the two, we expect the Saints to bounce back with a strong performance.  New Orleans lost in overtime in a high-scoring shootout with the Falcons.  There’s no shame in losing that game in Atlanta, and we’ll just disregard the statistical numbers against the Saints.  New Orleans is taking a major step-down in class for this game, and their talent simply over-matches anything Cleveland puts on the field.  The Saints’ defense will play much better in this game as they’ll be facing skill players from the Browns that rank dead last in the NFL based upon fantasy football grading guidelines. 

Cleveland played way over their heads last week in Pittsburgh.  The Browns were getting crushed at the half; they were down 27-3.  But the Browns exploded in the second half while out-scoring the Steelers 24-3.  Cleveland tied the game early in the fourth quarter before giving up the winning field goal as time expired.  Off that high-scoring loss against one of their divisional rivals, we expect major regression from Cleveland, especially since they are a poor team void of much talent.  The Browns will not be able to trade points with the potent New Orleans offense, so we’ll lay the points with the Saints in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SAINTS (-).

Atlanta opened their season with a big home win over their divisional rivals last Sunday.  The Falcons beat the Saints 37-34 in overtime after racking up 568 yards of total offense.  That was a huge offensive performance by the Falcons, and it was a major “statement” game for Atlanta after going 4-12 last season.  Off that big win, Atlanta must take to the road and play an out of conference game against a strong Cincinnati team playing their home opener.  The Falcons’ offense will face a stiff challenge in this game against a stout Bengals’ defense that completely shut down Baltimore last week.  Atlanta’s defense was torched by the Saints for 472 yards last week, and we expect the Bengals to put-up similar numbers in this game. 

Cincinnati was quite impressive in their 23-16 win in Baltimore last week.  The Bengals controlled that game from the outset, and they handed the Ravens their first home September loss  under head coach John Harbaugh.  Cincinnati was flattered on Thursday night when Baltimore came back and beat Pittsburgh 26-6.  The Bengals’ offense is in much better hands this season under offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, and that was evident last week.  QB Andy Dalton will have a big season, and we expect him to put-up some big numbers on the poor Atlanta defense.  Cincinnati is simply the much better team, and since they are catching Atlanta off their best performance, we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play BENGALS (-).

USC has won two Best Bet selections for us so far this season, and there’s no reason for us to stop backing the Trojans.  They crushed Fresno State 52-13 in their season opener, and last week they beat Stanford 13-10.  Many may think this is a letdown spot for USC off the Stanford win, but we see it the opposite way.  The Trojans are on a mission this season after the mess they’ve been thru over the last few seasons.  USC is not going to take any game lightly as they need to impress to get back on the national radar.  USC is a more unified group without Lane Kiffin as their head coach.  Current head coach Steve Sarkisian is well liked by his players, and the team goes all out for him.  Quarterback Cody Kessler has played tremendous, completing 67.8% (40-59) of his passes with 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Kessler’s numbers will be much improved this year under the guidance of Sarkisian, and we expect him to have a big game on Saturday night.

Boston College is in rebuilding mode with just 9 returning starters this season.  The Eagles had 17 returning starters last season, and they went just 7-6 on the year.  Boston College is void of major talent right now, and they are totally out-classed in this game versus USC.  The Eagles had a much better team last year, but they were non-competitive in a 35-7 loss at USC.  Boston College is taking a monumental step-up in competition this week after facing a putrid Massachusetts team in their season opener and an okay Pittsburgh team last week.  This is an important game for USC, especially since they have a bye next week.  Lay the points with USC on Saturday night.

9* Play USC (-).

This has been a lopsided series with Florida winning 27 straight games over Kentucky.  That streak is going to continue this year, and the Gators are going to roll up a big number on the Wildcats.  Florida crushed Eastern Michigan 65-0 last week, and they showed that their offense has improved greatly from last season’s debacle.  The Gators only averaged 18.8 points per game in 2013, but much of that can be attributed to injuries as they just decimated the whole Florida team.  In their 65-point win last week, the Gators gained 655 yards of total offense.  Despite Florida’s poor offense last year, they stilled rolled up 402 yards on Kentucky’s home field.  With a healthy team now, the Gators will go up and down the field on the Wildcats in this game.

Kentucky comes into this game at 2-0, but those two wins came at home over FCS UT-Martin and Ohio from the MAC conference.  The Wildcats are taking a major step-up in class here against the Gators, and we don’t expect them to be too competitive.  Kentucky’s Over/Under season wins total was just 3.5 this season, so after a 2-0 start, their losses are going to start adding up.  Kentucky installed their new Air-Raid offense under head coach Mark Stoops last season, but the Wildcats were highly inconsistent last week when they scored just 20 points against Ohio.  The Gators have a very stout defense, and it’s hard to envision Kentucky scoring enough points to stay close, especially since Florida has held them to a total of 7 points over the last two meetings.  This game will be a one-sided blowout, so we’ll lay the points with Florida on Saturday night. 

9* Play FLORIDA (-).

Mississippi came thru for us with an easy Best Bet winner over Vanderbilt last week, and we’ll come right back with the Rebels this week.  Mississippi won that game 41-3 after racking up 547 yards of total offense.  Mississippi is a loaded team that includes 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team that had to face Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in three consecutive weeks.  Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford, and his teams always improve as the years go on.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their defense has been outstanding so far this season.  Mississippi has allowed 16 total points in their two games, and they will limit the Ragin’ Cajuns’ offensive production in this game. 

Louisiana Lafayette will be a good team in the Sun Belt conference this season, but they are simply out-classed in this game versus Mississippi.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years.  They lost 34-14 at a terrible Arkansas team last season, and they got waxed 65-24 at Oklahoma State the season before.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have no chance to match points with the potent Mississippi offense, especially after their defense gave up 48 points on 533 yards of offense to Louisiana Tech on their home field last week.  We’ll lay the points with Mississippi in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

This heated rivalry has been a close series over the last few years.  In fact, nine of the last ten meetings have been decided by 3 points or less.  Based on that trend, taking the points with Pittsburgh as an underdog may be luring.  However, the Steelers are a shell of their former teams, especially their defense.  In their home game last week against a talent-less Cleveland offense, the Steelers’ defense gave up 27 points on 389 yards of total offense.  Pittsburgh was gashed on the ground as the Browns ran for 183 yards while averaging a whopping 6.1 yards per rush.  The Steelers must now take to the road on a short week and face a hungry Baltimore team off a home loss in their season opener and playing once again on their strong home field.  Pittsburgh has had no time to fix their poor defense, so we can expect a repeat of last week’s terrible performance.  

Baltimore did not play good at all last week.  The Ravens trailed the Bengals 15-0 at one point before taking a brief lead and giving it right back just four plays later.  That home loss by the Ravens was their first in September under head coach John Harbaugh, and since they played so poorly, we can expect a much better effort tonight.  The Ravens are also in a better position to fix their problems because they’ve been at home since the end of preseason.  Baltimore is dealing with the distraction of the Ray Rice situation, but the best way for them to escape that is to play a football game.  The Ravens may prove to be the much better team at season’s end, so laying less than a field goal holds some value in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play RAVENS (-).

San Diego will be playing a new style of football this season.  The Chargers’ offense is now led by Frank Reich, and he has transformed San Diego from a ball-control offense into an up-tempo offense looking to run a high volume of plays.  The Chargers have a good passing attack with Philip Rivers at quarterback, and he’ll be productive in this game, especially since Arizona’s defense is dealing with multiple injuries to their best players.  The Cardinals’ defense is without Daryl Washington (suspension) and Darnell Dockett (knee) while Karlos Dansby left in free agency.  The absence of those three guys will limit Arizona’s pass rush and allow Rivers ample time to complete passes downfield.  

Arizona’s offense has the potential to be really good this season.  Head coach Bruce Arians is a brilliant play caller, and in his second year with the Cardinals, we expect big improvement.  We saw a much more efficient offense in the second half of last season after QB Carson Palmer and the rest of the Arizona offense got comfortable in Arians’ schemes.  Palmer is in position to have a big season, and tonight’s opponent provides him an opportunity to get off to a fast start.  The Chargers’ defense was poor last season, especially their secondary.  San Diego revamped their corners in free agency, but new guy Brandon Flowers and hold over Shareece Wright were torched repeatedly in the preseason.  With two strong passing offenses facing two vulnerable defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Chargers and Cardinals on Monday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Indianapolis had another phony season in 2013.  The Colts were out-played on the field, yet they went 11-5 and won a playoff game.  Indianapolis is coming into this season off back-to-back fortunate years, and regression has to set in soon, and we expect it to start in this game against the Broncos.  Seven of the Colts’ wins last season came by single digits, including their 39-33 home win over Denver last October.  Indianapolis was out-yarded 429-334 in that game, and that was a common occurrence last year.  The Colts’ defense was good against the bad teams and awful against the good teams, and we fully expect the Broncos’ offense to score a lot of points in this game.

Denver has some motivation to play extremely well in this game.  Aside from this game being the season opener, the Broncos were humiliated in the Super Bowl and they are also playing with revenge.  This is an important game for Peyton Manning against his former franchise, especially since he lost in his initial return to Indianapolis.  Manning and the Broncos’ offense will move the ball at will, especially since the Colts’ defense will be without their best defender Robert Mathis (suspension) and their free safety Delano Howell (neck).  Denver’s secondary was atrocious last season, but they addressed that need with the signings of Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.  Denver’s defensive line is projected to be strong, and they will apply pressure on QB Andrew Luck, especially since the Colts will start A.Q. Shipley at center after claiming him off waivers last Sunday.  Denver is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Sunday night. 

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

San Francisco and Dallas have major issues on the defensive side of the ball.  The 49ers are without their three best defenders as Navorro Bowman (knee), Glenn Dorsey (biceps), and Aldon Smith (suspension) leave San Francisco’s top stop unit a shell of itself.  Against the two strong offenses they faced in the preseason, the 49ers gave up 23 points to the Ravens and 34 points to the Broncos.  The Cowboys’ defense was dreadful last season (27 points allowed per game), and they’ll also be without their best defenders.  Sean Lee is out with a knee injury while DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher left in free agency.  Dallas’ preseason results were ugly as they gave up 25 points or more in all four preseason games.   

The 49ers and Cowboys both possess potent offenses.  San Francisco will go up and down the field on the awful Dallas defense.  The 49ers’ offense returns intact from last year’s team that averaged 25.4 points per game.  Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a true dual threat, and Dallas’ defense has major issues versus mobile QB’s.  The Cowboys’ offense was strong last season (27 points scored per game), and they’ll be potent once again in 2014.  Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the league, and San Francisco’s inability to pressure will allow Tony Romo to pick them apart thru the air.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the 49ers and Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Oakland is in a very difficult situational and scheduling spot for this game in New York.  The Raiders had to travel cross country for their season opener, and they must play this game early on their body clocks.  The players’ bodies are not used to this, especially since all of their preseason games this year came at night.  Oakland will also be playing with a rookie quarterback, Derek Carr, who is making his first NFL start on the road.  Carr’s task will not be easy, especially against the aggressive and blitz-heavy defense of the Jets.  Carr faced pressure on just 8 of his 47 pass attempts during the preseason, so he’ll be unprepared for what Rex Ryan and the Jets’ defense is going to throw at him.  Oakland’s offensive line was a mess in preseason, and they are still trying to find a viable unit and slot them in the right positions.  The Raiders’ offense will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.  

The New York Jets will be much better than expected this season.  Most assumed Rex Ryan was gone after last season, but he was retained to the applause of his players who love playing for him.  The Jets’ situation this season is quite positive, and the team has built great chemistry.  “We’re way, way closer than last year,” Willie Colon said.  “Our stock as a team and family is going up.”  Quarterback Geno Smith was productive in the preseason as he completed 69.7% of his passes while playing healthy.  The Jets now have a home run threat in the backfield with the addition of Chris Johnson.  The ability to run the ball consistently will open things up downfield for the Jets, and they will attack the old and weak Oakland secondary.  The Jets are simply the superior team in an advantageous spot, so we’ll lay the points with them in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

10* Play JETS (-).

UCLA did not play up to their hype last week in Virginia.  The Bruins escaped with a 28-20 win as their offense played really bad.  However, we’re willing to forgive that effort and the results for a couple of reasons.  First and foremost, UCLA was playing a rare game on the East Coast and it started at 12:00 pm ET.  The Bruins’ players were out of their element, and an early start in their first game of the season was a big disadvantage.  Second, the Bruins were playing a very good Virginia defense that had all summer to prepare.  UCLA was simply in a terrible situation to play up to their abilities last week, but that all changes in this game.  UCLA is at home and facing an inferior opponent, so we fully expect to see the “real” Bruins in this game.  

Memphis got their season off to a big start in their 63-0 waxing of FCS Austin Peay last week.  However, the Tigers are stepping way up in class here, and they’ll be facing one of the best teams in college football on the road off a poor performance.  Memphis may have a good season with 17 returning starters, but they are hopelessly out-classed in this game versus UCLA.  The 63 points scored by the Tigers last week was an aberration.  In their previous 60 games, the most points Memphis scored were 42, and they only eclipsed the 40-point mark in two of those sixty games.  The Tigers will regress sharply off their win, and since we expect UCLA to play much better, this game will be a one-sided blowout.  

10* Play UCLA (-).

Mississippi did not play their best football last week in their 35-13 win over Boise State.  But with that game under their belts, we expect a much sharper team, especially since this is their SEC opener.  Mississippi is a loaded team that includes 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team that had to face Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in three consecutive weeks.  Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford, and his teams always improve as the years go on.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and despite their sluggish play last Thursday, Mississippi still rolled up 458 yards of offense.  The Rebels’ offense will explode this week, especially since they’ll be facing a Vanderbilt team that gave up 37 points to Temple last Thursday night.   

Vanderbilt figured to regress sharply this season after losing head coach James Franklin to Penn State.  Not only did they lose Franklin, but Vanderbilt also lost 11 starters, including five all-conference players.  The Commodores overachieved under Franklin as they won 18 games over the last two seasons, and if their season opener is any indication, Vanderbilt is in for a long season.  They lost at home by 30 points to Temple after getting out-yarded 351-278.  Vanderbilt did not score an offensive touchdown as their lone points came on a 13-yard fumble recovery.  The Commodores have no chance to match points with the potent Mississippi offense, so we expect another blowout loss for Vanderbilt in this game.  Lay the points with the Rebels on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

USC crushed Fresno State 52-13 last week, winning us a Best Bet selection.  We’re going to come right back with the Trojans this week as they still hold some pointspread value.  USC is a much better team than they were last season, and they are a more unified group without Lane Kiffin as their head coach.  Current head coach Steve Sarkisian is well liked by his players, and that was evident last week when they came together after the bogus racist allegations were raised about Sarkisian.  USC racked up 37 first downs on 701 yards of total offense last week.  Quarterback Cody Kessler played tremendous as he completed 67.6% (25-37) of his passes with 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Kessler’s numbers will be much improved this year under the guidance of Sarkisian, and last week’s performance was certainly an indicator.

Stanford also won impressively last week as they rolled to a 45-0 victory.  However, that was against FCS UC-Davis.  They are taking a monumental step-up in competition this week.  Stanford has been terrific over the last few seasons; they’ve won 11 games or more in four straight years.  But the Cardinal return just 12 starters this season, and it’s hard to see them repeating their recent success.  Stanford had a tremendous team last season, but they lost 20-17 at USC as 3.5-point favorites.  They were a significantly better team than USC last year, so the fact that they lost that game does not bode well for this game, especially since USC is much improved.  This is an important game for USC as they attempt to regain their superiority in the state of California.  We’ll take the points with the better team in this game on Saturday afternoon.    

9* Play USC (+).

Green Bay and Seattle will begin the 2014 NFL regular season on Thursday night.  The Packers will be a good team this season, but they face a brutal matchup in this game.  Green Bay has to open their season on the road in the toughest stadium, and they will do so with an inexperienced center.  Rookie center Corey Linsley will get the start after Green Bay lost their starter to injury.  Linsley has yet to snap a ball to quarterback Aaron Rodgers in a game, and that will be a major issue in this game, especially considering the extreme crowd noise teams face in Seattle.  The Packers’ defense was also bad last season when they gave up 27 points or more in ten games.  Green Bay did not address those issues, so we can expect the Packers’ defense to play poorly tonight, especially against a Seattle offense that should be one of the best in the NFL this season.

Seattle cruised to a Super Bowl win last season, and there’s no reason they won’t sustain a high level of performance for the next few years.  There are no holes in this Seattle team, and they could actually be better than they were last season.  The Seahawks’ offense was on a mission during the preseason, and quarterback Russell Wilson played lights out.  Wilson completed 78.6% (33-42) of his passes while taking the second-most QB snaps of all quarterbacks in the preseason.  That indicates that Seattle is planning to unleash Wilson this season rather than making him a game manager like the last couple of years.  Seattle’s entire offense is fully healthy, and they simply have too much firepower for the Green Bay defense.  We’ll lay the points with Seattle in this game on Thursday night.        

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

Green Bay and Seattle will provide an entertaining matchup on opening night in the NFL.  The Packers always possess a strong offense, and that will be the case once again this season.  Green Bay will score their share of points just as they always do early in the season.  In fact, the Packers have averaged 25.5 points per game in their first three regular season games over the last two years.  The Packers will also benefit from the new defensive pass interference rules, especially since rumor has it that the league changed the rules because of the Seattle cornerbacks.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is shrewd enough to recognize that, so expect the Packers to take some shots downfield.

Seattle’s reputation is that of a defensive team.  However, we expect the Seahawks’ offense to have a fantastic season in 2014.  In the preseason, Seattle tipped their hand with the way they played quarterback Russell Wilson.  He completed 78.6% (33-42) of his passes while taking the second-most QB snaps of all quarterbacks in the preseason.  That indicates that Seattle is planning to unleash Wilson this season rather than making him a game manager like the last couple of years.  Seattle’s entire offense is fully healthy, and they simply have too much firepower for the Green Bay defense.  The Packers gave up 27 points or more in ten games last season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Seahawks on Thursday night.   

9* Play OVER the total.

These two teams closed out last season with Louisville beating Miami (FL) 36-9 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  However, a lot has changed since that game.  Miami (FL) is much healthier for this game as they will have their best running back, Duke Johnson, on the field tonight; he missed the bowl game.  The Hurricanes will also have a new quarterback in true freshman Brad Kaaya.  He beat out experienced and BYU transfer Jake Heaps, and all reports out of Miami say Kaaya has the goods to be an elite college quarterback.  Miami’s ability to run the ball successfully with Johnson in this game will keep the pressure off Kaaya.  Louisville is replacing seven defensive starters while switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme, so Miami’s offense will take advantage of the Cardinals’ transition.  The Hurricanes have had all summer to prepare for Louisville, and they are hell-bent on erasing the memory of the embarrassing bowl loss last season.

Louisville comes into this season with a slew of changes from last year’s 12-1 team.  The Cardinals have a new head coach in Bobby Petrino after Charlie Strong left for Texas.  The coaching personalities are complete opposites, so it will be a difficult transition for the returning players.  Louisville lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to the NFL, and his successor is sophomore Will Gardner who is learning a completely new system.  Gardner will not have Louisville’s best receiver as DaVante Parker is out with a broken bone in his foot.  Miami returns their entire starting secondary from last year, and that unit feels compelled to atone for their atrocious performance in last year’s game.  Miami is 9-4 ATS as an underdog in three year’s under head coach Al Golden, and the Hurricanes have a lot of motivation fro this game.  In what projects to be a close game throughout, we’ll take the points with the Hurricanes on Monday night.          

10* Play MIAMI (FL) (+).

This game will be played on a neutral field in Dallas, Texas so neither team will have the site advantage.  Oklahoma State gets the worst possible opponent in their season opener.  The Cowboys are a shell of the team they’ve had over the last few seasons.  They return just 8 total starters, 4 on each side of the ball.  The Cowboys do have JW Walsh back at quarterback, but without the supporting cast, his experience means little, especially against the fast and ferocious defense of Florida State.  Oklahoma State’s defense was sneaky good last year even though they didn’t get any recognition.  They gave up just 21.6 points per game which were the fewest points allowed since 2009.  The Cowboys are extremely young on defense this season, and they are up against it versus the speed of the Seminoles’ offense.

Florida State comes in off their National Championship season.  The Seminoles will be hard-pressed to repeat their dominance for the whole season, but in this game against this opponent, we certainly expect them to.  Florida State returns quarterback Jameis Winston along with six other offensive starters.  The Seminoles will slice thru the Oklahoma State defense, especially since they’ll own a huge speed edge on the artificial surface.  Florida State’s defense will dominate opponents once again, and the young Cowboys’ offense will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency.  Florida State holds all the edges in this game, and since my power ratings make this game north of 3 touchdowns, we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles on Saturday night.

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Fresno State and USC closed out 2013 in the Las Vegas Bowl; the Trojans won 45-20 as 6-point favorites.  The talent edge displayed by USC in that game was quite noticeable, and that was against Fresno State’s best team in a decade.  The Trojans return virtually intact while the Bulldogs must replace their record-setting offense.  Quarterback Derek Carr graduated and he’s now in the NFL.  The Bulldogs are also without their top two wide receivers who accounted for 2,744 receiving yards and 30 touchdown receptions.  Fresno State won 11 games last season, but five of those wins came by 7 points or less which indicates they also had good fortune on their side.

USC will begin a new era in this game as Steve Sarkisian takes over as head coach.  Sarkisian knows the USC culture from his time as offensive coordinator under Pete Carroll.  The recent news about racism is a bunch of hogwash coming from a disgruntled player who wasn’t going to play.  The current team and former players have all backed Sarkisian in this incident, so there’s an expectation of a big performance in this game to silence the critics.  The Trojans are a very good team on both sides of the ball, and their defense will be one of the best in the country.  They allowed just 21 points per game last season, and they will dominate a young and inexperience Fresno State offense in this game.  This game is a mismatch as USC lays over the Bulldogs at every position.  Lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Clemson and Georgia will open their season against each other for the second consecutive year.  We won a Best Bet on Clemson as a home underdog in their 38-35 win over Georgia last season, but we’re going to flip sides for this game.  Clemson lost a lot of explosive talent from last year’s 11-2 team that won the Orange Bowl.  The Tigers must replace six offensive starters, including their quarterback, running back, and top two wide receivers.  Clemson’s offense averaged 41 and 40 points over the last two years, but their production is going to take a significant drop this season.  That will be quite evident in this game against Georgia’s defense, a unit that will be one of the best in the country at season’s end.

Georgia had a disappointing 2013.  The Bulldogs went just 8-5, and they lost quarterback Aaron Murray to a season-ending ACL injury.  Georgia suffered thru a slew of injuries last year, and they just couldn’t overcome them.  But last year’s misfortunes will benefit Georgia this season as many players gained valuable playing experience, especially QB Hutson Mason.  He completed 60.9% of his passes while throwing for 968 yards last season, and his numbers will improve this year.  Mason has a terrific running game to lean on, and the wide receivers will be one of the top units in the SEC.  Clemson’s defense is pretty good, but they will wear down because they will be on the field for a long time in this game as the Tigers’ offense will be unable to sustain drives against the stout Bulldogs’ defense.  Georgia is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday.

9* Play GEORGIA (-).