Baltimore and Pittsburgh have major issues on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary.  The Ravens come into this game with a 0-3 record mainly due to their lack of defensive stops.  Baltimore led late in the fourth quarter in their last two games, but their secondary gave up game-winning touchdowns, resulting in a pair of losses.  The Ravens’ secondary allowed Derek Carr and Andy Dalton to complete 64.1% (50-78) of their passes for 734 yards on a whopping 9.4 yards per pass attempt.  While it’s true Baltimore’s defense gets a big break in facing Mike Vick instead of Ben Roethlisberger (MCL injury), the Ravens’ secondary still has gaping holes all over the field.  With Vick’s ability to make plays with his legs, the Steelers will be able to hit some big passes downfield simply on broken plays setup by Vick’s scrambling.

Pittsburgh’s pass defense is absolutely atrocious, and they were gouged in the first two games this season.  Pittsburgh allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.4% (58-78) of their passes for 623 yards on 8.0 yards per pass attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Last week in St. Louis, the Steelers held the Rams to just 6 points.  But upon further inspection, Pittsburgh allowed Nick Foles to complete 67.9% (19-28) of his passes for 197 yards on 7.0 yards per pass attempt.  Now the Steelers will face Joe Flacco who torched Pittsburgh last season while completing 67% (69-103) of his passes for 728 yards on 7.1 yards per pass attempt with a 6/1 touchdown/interception ratio.  With two capable offenses facing two poor defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Ravens and Steelers on Thursday night. 

10* Play OVER the total (Ravens/Steelers).

Kansas City’s offensive success is predicated on their running game.  If the Chiefs can the run the ball consistently on their opponent, they tend to score points.  And that will be the case tonight against Green Bay.  The Packers lost two of their top run defenders to injury in the first two weeks, so their defensive front is very thin.  Green Bay allowed the Bears to run for 158 yards on 29 carries in their season opener, and that was with their full personnel.  Last week, the Packers gave up 119 rushing yards to the Seahawks despite Seattle playing in catch-up mode throughout the game.  Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles gashed the stout Broncos defense for 125 yards last Thursday night, so he has to be salivating at this matchup against the Packers.  Quarterback Alex Smith is a very effective passer when the opposing defense is geared up to stop the Chiefs’ running game.  Smith also possesses the mobility to extend plays with his legs, and scrambling quarterbacks is a major defensive weakness of the Packers.

Green Bay’s offense is terrific with Aaron Rodgers under center.  The Packers haven’t skipped a beat this season.  Green Bay scored 31 points on the Bears in their season opener, and last week they scored 27 points on the Seahawks.  Rodgers has completed 76.8% (43-56) of his passes for 438 yards with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Rodgers is averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll have plenty of success tonight against a Kansas City secondary that is missing their best cornerback (Sean Smith) due to suspension.  Green Bay has scored 26 points or more in nine straight home games, and that streak will continue tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Chiefs and Packers on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Denver comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record, but the Broncos could actually be 0-2 on the season.  Denver beat Baltimore 19-13 in their season opener at home despite trailing by an average of 1.9 points per minute in that game.  Then last Thursday night, Denver won 31-24 in Kansas City in a miraculous finish.  The Broncos scored the game-tying touchdown with less than a minute to play, and then they returned a fumble for a touchdown when the Chiefs were simply trying to run out the clock.  Denver had a +4 in turnover margin in that game yet they barely won.  The Broncos were also 3-point road underdogs in that game, but now they are 3-point road favorites to a team that is rated equally to Kansas City.

Detroit is 0-2 SU on the season, but the Lions could very well be 1-1.  Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in San Diego in their season opener, and last week they came out flat in their second consecutive road game.  Detroit returns home a desperate football team, and in a primetime national TV game against a Super Bowl contender, we expect a peak performance by the Lions tonight.  Detroit went 7-1 SU at home last season with their lone loss coming by 3 points to the Bills in a 17-14 defensive grinder.  Tonight’s game projects to be a low-scoring game as well, so taking a field game with the home underdog is the way to go.  We’ll back Detroit in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play LIONS (+).

Pittsburgh and St. Louis have major issues on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary.  The Steelers’ pass defense is absolutely atrocious, and they were gouged in the first two games this season.  Pittsburgh has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74% (58-78) of their passes for 623 yards on 8.0 yards per pass attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.  The Steelers gave up 28 points in New England, and they gave up 18 points at home to a bad San Francisco offense last week.  Pittsburgh’s strength is stopping the run, but they will now be without their best linebacker, Ryan Shazier, who will miss today's game with a shoulder injury.  His absence makes the Pittsburgh defense even softer, so the Rams will have success on the ground and thru the air in this game.

St. Louis was in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for their game against the Redskins last week.  The Rams were hung over from their important overtime home underdog win versus the Seahawks, and the Rams' on-field play showed that.  St. Louis only scored 10 points on 213 yards of total offense.  But we can simply draw a line thru that result since St. Louis was in a bad spot to give their best effort.  In their season opener, the Rams scored 34 points on the Seahawks who have a superior defense when compared to Pittsburgh.  The Rams’ defense also allowed 31 points in that game, and Pittsburgh has a potent passing offense that will shred a weak St. Louis secondary.  The Steelers also get Le’Veon Bell back from injury, and his presence just makes the offense more explosive.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field today, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Steelers and Rams on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total (Steelers/Rams).

The Colts are off to a 0-2 SU/ATS start this season and that will ensure a very focused and motivated effort today.  The Colts Monday night loss was largely due to turnovers as they had a 5-1 turnover deficit versus the Jets, including losing a fumble on the 1-yard line that would have made the score 10-7.  That game was much closer than the 20-7 final score indicated as the Colts were only outgained by 1 total yard (343-344) and actually held a 5.6 to 5.5 yards per play advantage.  Despite that loss, QB Andrew Luck is still an incredible 14-2 SU after a defeat, so he should respond with a solid effort today.  Indianapolis has played better than their 0-2 SU/ATS record indicates as they also had a 3-0 turnover deficit at Buffalo in Week 1.  That means the Colts are now -7 in turnovers after just two games and this number is likely to revert back to the norm in future weeks.  Andrew Luck does throw more interceptions than most quarterbacks, but keep in mind this is because the Colts run more passing plays than most teams.  In fact, Luck's career interception % is actually lower than several famous quarterbacks such as Montana, Aikman, Manning, etc.

The Titans have played two weak opponents this season against Tampa Bay and Cleveland, so Tennessee is now taking a substantial step up in class versus the Indianapolis.  Rookie QB Marcus Mariota has looked good, but he is still a rookie and the Colts now have two full weeks of game film on him to develop a better gameplan and plan of attack.  Tennessee's defense is still suspect after playing two weak opponents and they lost 28-14 to backup QB Johnny Manziel last week who averaged an incredible 11.5 yards per pass with a 133.9 QB rating.  He averaged an awful 5.0 ypp with a 42.0 QB rating in his five games last year.  Indianapolis' should have a big bounce back game today, especially since the Colts have dominated Tennessee in this series, going a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the past seven meetings, including easy 41-17 and 27-10 wins last season.

9* Play COLTS (-).

Cincinnati comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record after crushing the Raiders in Oakland 33-13 and beating San Diego 24-19 at home last week.  The win in Oakland is nothing special, and last week the Bengals caught the Chargers in a bad scheduling and situational spot.  San Diego was off a big come from behind home win and playing across the country in an early start game.  Cincinnati now finds themselves in a bad spot as they will play a desperate divisional rival on the road.  The Bengals have beaten the Ravens in three straight meetings, so that means they could come into this game overconfident.  Despite Cincinnati’s offense looking good with 57 points scored, they’ve actually underperformed on the field.  The Bengals are averaging 28.5 points per game against defenses that allow 29.5 points per game.  They are averaging 6.2 yards per play against defenses that give up 6.5 yards per play.

Baltimore comes into this game with a 0-2 SU record, but the Ravens could actually be 2-0 on the season.  They lost a close 19-13 game in Denver in their season opener, and last week they blew a late lead in Oakland and lost 37-33.  The Ravens return home for a game they must win, and we expect them to bring their best effort.  Baltimore is 12-4 SU at home over the last two seasons with their average win coming by +12.9 points per game.  The Ravens are a perfect 5-0 at home when playing off a road loss in their previous game with their average win coming by +10.2 points per game in that situation.  The setup for a prime Baltimore performance couldn’t be any better, especially since they’ll be facing a familiar divisional opponent that is fat and happy right now.  This is a great spot for Baltimore to get a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the short number with the Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAVENS (-).

Missouri has been a terrific team over the last couple of seasons.  The Tigers are 26-5 in their last 31 games, including a perfect 3-0 so far in 2015.  Missouri’s strength over the last few years has been on the defensive side of the ball; they’ve allowed 23.5 points per game or less in four of the last five seasons.  The Tigers’ defense has been phenomenal this season; they are giving up just 9.7 points per game on 217 total yards per game.  Missouri is holding their opponents to just 3.3 yards per play, so teams have had an extremely difficult time moving the football consistently on the Tigers.  Granted, their schedule has been weak thus far, but Missouri’s history of fielding a strong defense is an indication that the first three games are not a fluke.  Missouri’s offense has struggled a bit this season, but that’s because star running back Russell Hansbrough has been out with injury.  However, reports indicate he will play in this game, and his presence alone will boost Missouri’s offensive production, especially since Kentucky allows 187.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.    

Kentucky comes into this game with a 2-1 record with their loss coming last week at home to Florida.  The Wildcats were in a good spot for that game after winning at South Carolina as 7-point road underdogs the week before.  But Kentucky played terrible football as they only had 3 points thru three quarters, and overall, they only had 241 yards of offense for the entire game.  The Wildcats’ offense has underperformed all season, and in fact, Kentucky is only averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.8 yards per play this season.  And it’s not like they’ve played a collection of strong defensive opponents.  As a group, Kentucky has faced defenses that are giving up 24.7 points per game.  They are taking a major step-up in class in this game against Missouri since the Tigers’ defense allows 15 points per game less than the teams Kentucky has been facing.  Missouri has dominated this series over the last three seasons, winning by a combined score of 101-37, and there’s nothing that indicates this game will be any different.  My power ratings actually make Missouri a 2.5-point favorite in this game, and since they are the better team with the better defense, we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

This game will be played on a neutral field, so neither team has the home field advantage.  The pointspread on this game has been severely inflated after the recent results over the last couple of weeks.  Back in June, the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas posted Arkansas as 6-point favorites over Texas A&M.  And after just three games, Texas A&M is now a 7-point favorite.  That’s a 13-point adjustment, and it’s simply way too much.  My raw power ratings before the season made Arkansas a 2-point favorite, and even after adjusting for in-season play, my power ratings only make Texas A&M a 1.5-point favorite.  Texas A&M comes into this game with a 3-0 record, but the Aggies have played two inferior opponents and Arizona State.  Texas A&M has played three terrible defensive teams that are giving up an average of 31.4 points and 427.9 yards per game as a group.  The Aggies are taking a big step-up in defensive class for this game as Arkansas is only allowing 21.3 points and 336 yards of offense per game this season.

Arkansas is just 1-2 on the season, and the Razorbacks come into this game off back-to-back home losses.  However, Arkansas could easily be 3-0 had the football bounced their way.  In their two losses, the Razorbacks’ offense has put up 939 yards of total offense.  Arkansas controlled the football in those two games; they held a 74:38-45:22 time of possession edge.  The Razorbacks do that by having a fantastic running game that is averaging 171 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  Arkansas’ defense has also been terrific this season as they are holding opponents to 13.7 points per game less than their seasonal average.  The Razorbacks’ opponents are averaging 35 points per game on offense as a group while Arkansas is only allowing 21.3 points per game as noted above.  The line on this game is super inflated, and we expect a close game throughout.  We’ll take the points with the Razorbacks in a game they have a very good shot at winning outright.

10* Play ARKANSAS (+).

BYU is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Michigan on Saturday afternoon.  The Cougars come into this game with a 2-1 record, but they could very well be 0-3 on the season.  BYU opened with back-to-back miraculous wins; they won at Nebraska and they beat Boise State at home on Hail Mary passes.  Last week, they played at UCLA, and the Cougars led for the majority of that game.  BYU blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead after giving up the game-winning touchdown to UCLA with just over 3 minutes to play in the game.  The Cougars’ 24-23 loss will be extremely difficult to overcome, especially after the pair of emotional games they won to begin the season.  BYU must now travel across the country and play an early game after playing back-to-back late games on the opposite coast.  The Cougars will likely be running on empty as this game goes on. 

Michigan has bounced back strongly after opening the season with a 24-17 loss at Utah.  The Wolverines have won their two home games by a combined score of 63-14, so they come into this game full of confidence.  Michigan dominated the line of scrimmage in their two wins, and their defense played outstanding as well.  The Wolverines ran for a total of 479 yards while gaining a whopping 5.5 yards per rush.  BYU’s rush defense was gouged by UCLA last week as the Bruins ran for 296 yards while averaging an incredible 7.8 yards per rush.  Michigan will have similar success in this game, especially since the Cougars’ defense has given up 24 points or more in all three games this season.  The Wolverines’ defense has held their three opponents to a total of 38 points this season.  In their last two games, Michigan has held their opponents to a total of 373 yards of offense.  Overall this season, the Wolverines’ defense is only allowing 3.8 yards per play.  This is simply a terrible spot for BYU, and with Michigan playing excellent football right now, we’ll lay the points with the Wolverines on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

Washington was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Rams.  The Redskins were catching St. Louis off their big overtime home win over Seattle, and it was simply a major flat spot for the Rams.  Washington took full advantage, and so did we by winning a Best Bet selection on the Redskins in their easy 24-10 blowout of St. Louis.  However, Washington is now in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in New York.  The Redskins are playing on a short week with this being their first game on the road; they also hosted Miami in Week 1.  Washington was a 4-point home underdog to the Dolphins, and they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Rams last week.  Now they are only 3-point road underdogs on the road.  Clearly, the oddsmakers have overreacted to last week’s results, especially since the Giants come into this game winless on the season.

New York is 0-2 SU on the season, but the Giants could actually be 2-0.  They mismanaged the clock in their 27-26 loss in Dallas in their season opener, and last week they blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead at home to the Falcons.  Atlanta scored the winning touchdown with just over a minute to play in that game.  Off back-to-back blown games, tonight’s game for the Giants is very important.  New York can ill-afford to drop to 0-3 SU on the season, so they will come with a supreme effort in this game, especially since they are playing a division opponent.  The Giants are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in their last four meetings against the Redskins, and quarterback Eli Manning has been spectacular against Washington.  In the two meetings last season, Manning completed 70% (51-73) of his passes for 550 yards with 7 touchdowns and 1 interception.  The Giants won those games by a combined scored of 69-27 and won the two games the year prior 44-23.  That means New York has outscored Washington 113-50 the past two years while going a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS with victory margins by 7, 14, 31, and 11 points.  New York is in a good spot to notch their first win of the season, so we’ll back the Giants on Thursday night.

10* Play GIANTS (-).

New York fired Rex Ryan a year too late, and because of that, the Jets suffered thru an embarrassing 4-12 SU campaign in 2014.  Former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is the new head coach, and he stepped into a pretty good situation.  Bowles is a defensive guru, and with Darrelle Revis returning, the Jets’ defense is a much improved unit.  The Jets beat Cleveland 31-10 in their season opener at home, but that result was expected.  The Browns are a bad football team, so New York’s win doesn’t mean much at all.  The game was much closer than the final score indicates as the Jets only out-yarded the Browns 333-321 with an 18-15 first down advantage.  The difference in the game were the five Cleveland turnovers, including four lost fumbles, and the Browns’ inability to score inside the red zone; they were 0-2 inside the 20-yard line.  The Jets’ offense was pedestrian as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 15 passes for 179 yards.  New York is taking a monumental step-up in class against the Colts in this game, and we expect a much different outcome for the Jets tonight.

Indianapolis comes into this game off a 27-14 blowout loss in Buffalo last week.  That loss now sets the Colts up in a prime situational bounce-back spot for this home opener.  Last week's loss was not a surprise as quarterback Andrew Luck had one of his worst games last season in Cleveland when he completed just 45% (24-for-53) of his passes while throwing two interceptions.  The Browns are coached by Mike Pettine who is a disciple of the Rex Ryan defensive schemes.  Last week against Ryan’s defense, Luck once again had an awful game as he completed just 53% (26-for-49) of his passes while throwing two interceptions.  Those two bad performances by Luck shows that he struggles mightily against that particular defensive scheme.  However, a solid bounce-back performance is expected tonight as Luck has been incredible when playing off a loss in his career; he’s a fantastic 14-1 SU and ATS in the following game with the wins coming by an average of +11.6 points per game.  The Colts are simply the better team, and in a terrific bounce back spot, we’ll lay the points with Indianapolis at home on Monday night.

10* Play COLTS (-).

Seattle’s offense was sluggish last week in St. Louis.  The Seahawks only had 13 points thru three quarters as their offensive line had a difficult time blocking the very good defensive line of St. Louis.  Quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked a whopping 6 times in that game, and the exceptional Seattle running game was held to 124 yards on 32 carries.  Seattle is taking a monumental step-down in defensive class in this game, and their offense will breakout against the poor Green Bay defense.  The Packers gave up 23 points on 402 yards of total offense to the Bears last week.  Green Bay was gouged for 189 yards on the ground while allowing a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Seattle’s ground game could be even better, and QB Wilson will hit big passing plays down field in this game. 

Green Bay’s offense is terrific with Aaron Rodgers under center.  The Packers didn’t skip a beat last week in Chicago as they scored 31 points on the Bears’ defense.  Rodgers completed 78.3% (18-23) of his passes for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Rodgers averaged a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll have similar success tonight against a Seattle defense that allowed Nick Foles to complete 18 passes for 297 yards last week; Foles averaged an incredible 11.0 yards per pass attempt.  Green Bay scored 26 points or more in every home game last season, and with this being their home opener on national TV, the Packers will be primed for a big performance.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Seahawks and Packers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

St. Louis is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Washington.  The Rams come in off a big win in a game they prepped for all summer.  St. Louis beat Seattle 34-31 in overtime last week.  That divisional win was an emotional one for the Rams after they tied the game with less than a minute to play to force overtime.  St. Louis now owns back-to-back home wins over the Seahawks, and their personnel simply matches-up extremely well with Seattle.  After beating the Seahawks last season, the Rams fell flat the following week when they lost 31-17 at home to San Francisco.  The Rams are now on the road and laying points in a prime letdown spot, and they are doing so against a team they shutout last season.  St. Louis beat the Redskins 24-0 in Washington last season.  That result was an embarrassing low-point for Washington, and they’ve had this game circled in red ever since.

Washington lost 17-10 at home to Miami last week, but the Redskins actually out-played the Dolphins in that game.  Washington took a 10-7 lead into the fourth quarter before losing on a 69-yard punt return touchdown.  Overall, the Redskins out-yarded the Dolphins 349-256 while holding Miami to just 74 rushing yards on 18 carries.  Washington’s defense, especially their defensive line, is very good.  St. Louis has scored 19 points or less in eight of their last eleven road games, and since they come in off a high-scoring overtime win, there’s a high probability that the Rams will have difficulty scoring in this game.  The total is posted at 41, and it is the lowest Over/Under this week along with the Texans/Panthers game.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, and since Washington is catching St. Louis at the perfect time, we’ll take the points with the Redskins on Sunday afternoon. 

10* Play REDSKINS (+).

Arizona and Chicago both played in high-scoring games last week, and we expect a similar outcome in this game.  The Cardinals beat the Saints 31-19 after racking up 307 yards thru the air.  Arizona’s first team offense under Carson Palmer was exceptional in the preseason, and that carried over into Week 1.  Palmer threw 3 touchdown passes against the Saints while averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt overall.  Lead running back Andre Ellington got hurt last week, and he will miss this game.  That means Arizona will be throwing the ball a lot more, and that’s not a bad thing, especially against a Chicago defense that gave up 78.3% completions on 8.2 yards per pass attempt to Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers last week.  The Bears gave up 31 points in that game, and dating back to last season, Chicago has now allowed 119 total points in their last four home games.

Chicago’s offense played extremely well last week, and they will have success once again in this game on the Arizona defense.  The Bears scored 23 points on 402 yards of total offense despite quarterback Jay Cutler having a mediocre game.  He completed just 50% (18-36) of his passes while only averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt.  Chicago’s running game was fantastic as they gouged the Packers for 189 yards on the ground while averaging a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Arizona’s defense was stout last season, but they’ve lost some guys and the unit will regress in 2015.  The Cardinals’ defensive line is the biggest concern as that group is a collection of castoffs and draft picks.  They held the Saints in check on the ground last week, but New Orleans has a terrible rushing attack.  Chicago’s ability to run the ball will expose the Cardinals’ defense because it will open up big passing plays down the field for Cutler.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Cardinals and Bears on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Pittsburgh comes into this game with a perfect 2-0 record, but the team is getting little respect as of right now.  The Panthers were 6.5-point home favorites over Iowa last season, but they lost that game 24-20 despite out-yarding the Hawkeyes 435-311.  Now Pittsburgh will play in Iowa in the return game, and they are getting +5.5 which equates to a 12-point line move.  That’s way too much considering the two teams are quite similar to last year.  Pittsburgh is in their first year under new head coach Pat Narduzzi who was the Michigan State defensive coordinator for the past eight seasons.  Narduzzi created one of the best defenses in the country in East Lansing, and he’s very familiar with Big 10 member Iowa.  Narduzzi’s defenses have held the Hawkeyes to just 14, 19, and 21 points the last three meetings.  Pittsburgh shut down Akron last week, holding them to just 7 points, 8 first downs, and 110 total yards , so they are quite capable of holding Iowa in check in this game.

Iowa also comes into this game with a 2-0 record; the Hawkeyes beat FCS Illinois State 31-14 and rival Iowa State 31-17.  Iowa hasn’t been challenged yet, but they will be severely tested on both sides of the ball in this game against Pittsburgh.  The Hawkeyes and Panthers are built in a similar way as they both like to run the ball while playing physical defense.  When teams that fit that profile play, we often see a low-scoring defensive scrum with points at a minimum.  That was exactly the case in last year’s meeting that only had a total of 44 points scored.  The posted total on this game is currently 47, so we’re expected to see a similar outcome to last year’s game in Pittsburgh.  These two teams are even across the board, so we’ll take the points in a game that comes right down to the wire.       

9* Play PITTSBURGH (+).

This rivalry game is one that is played early in the season, and that gives Colorado a definite advantage over Colorado State for this meeting.  The Rams are a rebuilding football team while Colorado is a team on the rise.  The Rams have a new head coach in Mike Bobo who was the offensive coordinator at Georgia for the last eight years.  While Bobo inherited 15 total returning starters, the Rams lost their starting quarterback and running back plus their top two tacklers from last year’s 10-3 team.  The Rams have serious issues at quarterback as Nick Stevens completed just 42.1% (8-of-19) of his passes last week for 51 yards with two interceptions; he was benched during the game.  Bobo said Stevens will start this game simply because the Rams don’t have much behind him.  Colorado State comes into this game off a tough 23-20 home loss in overtime to Minnesota last week, and that game puts them in a negative situation for this game.

Colorado is trending up, and head coach Mike MacIntyre is in his third year in Boulder.  The Buffaloes will have their best season under MacIntyre as they returned 16 total starters.  Colorado comes into this game at 1-1 on the season; they lost 28-20 at Hawaii as 7-point favorites and they crushed Massachusetts 48-14 last week.  The Buffaloes ran for 390 yards on 6.6 yards per rush in that game, and that spells trouble for Colorado State who allowed 180 rushing yards at home to Minnesota last week.  Colorado was a 2.5-point favorite over Colorado State last season, but they lost 31-17.  The Rams were a significantly better team last season while Colorado only won 2 games all year; Colorado State only lost 3 games.  That’s not the case this season as Colorado will have a better record at season’s end, but they are only laying 0.5 points more.  This game is ultra important for Colorado’s program, and since they are the better team, we’ll lay the points with the Buffaloes on Saturday night.

10* Play COLORADO (-).

Auburn comes into this game at 2-0 SU, but they are 0-2 ATS.  That is a major red flag considering Auburn’s two opponents thus far, Louisville and Jacksonville State, are a combined 1-4 on the season.  Auburn played a neutral site game against Louisville, and at home versus Jacksonville State; they were not impressive in either game.  The Tigers could have lost both of those games; they only beat Louisville 31-24 and they needed overtime to beat FCS Jacksonville State 27-20.  Now Auburn must play a true road game for the first time this season with a quarterback that has been awful in the first two games.  Jeremy Johnson has completed just 60.4% (32-53) of his passes for 373 yards with a 3/5 touchdown/interception ratio.  Johnson will be making his first collegiate true road start, and he will be facing a much better defense than what he has seen in the first two games.  LSU is an extremely difficult place to play, especially for a relatively young and inexperienced quarterback like Johnson.

LSU has had this game circled after getting embarrassed 41-7 at Auburn last season.  We remember that game well as we won a Best Bet selection on Auburn as 7.5-point favorites.  That game set-up perfectly for Auburn, but this game is just the opposite, as LSU is now the team in a good situational spot.  The Tigers won 21-19 at Mississippi State in their season opener last week.  The 2-point win makes the game look closer than it actually was; LSU led 21-6 heading into the fourth quarter.  LSU dominated that game at the line of scrimmage as they ran for 266 yards on 5.7 yards per rush while holding Mississippi State to just 43 yards on the ground while limiting them to just 1.7 yards per rush.  If LSU repeats that type of domination in this game, Auburn has zero chance of staying competitive.  LSU returned a loaded team this season, and the Tigers are flying well under the national radar.  With this game being their only SEC home game until October 17th, we expect a supreme effort by LSU.  We’ll lay the points with LSU in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LSU (-).

Clemson has been a terrific team over the last four seasons.  The Tigers won 10 games or more in all four years, and they are expected to finish this season with a similar record.  While the Tigers are an extremely talented team, they are young and inexperienced, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Clemson only returned 3 starters on defense this season from last year’s unit that gave up just 16.7 points and 261 yards per game.  The Tigers are 2-0 coming into this game after beating up on Wofford and Appalachian State by a combined score of 90-20.  Both of those teams are inferior opponents, and Clemson played both games at home, so those results mean absolutely nothing.  Tonight’s game at Louisville is their first test of the season, and Clemson is simply overvalued in this game because of recent results.

Louisville comes into this game with an 0-2 record after losing to Auburn and Houston.  Both of those opponents are good teams, and Louisville actually could have won both games if the football bounced a different way.  The Cardinals have obviously played the much tougher competition so far this season, and they are already playing at mid-season game speed.  Clemson is not after playing a pair of weaklings, so Louisville has a significant edge for this game.  In last year’s meeting at Clemson, the Tigers only won 23-17 as 9.5-point home favorites.  Clemson was a better team last season, and now they are laying just 3.5 points less on the road against Louisville.  The Cardinals went 5-1 at home last season in head coach Bobby Petrino’s first season back; their only loss was to Florida State.  Louisville is severely undervalued in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Cardinals on Thursday night. 

10* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Philadelphia got rid of three key players from last year’s 10-6 SU team.  Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin all departed.  And the Eagles replaced those guys with quarterback Sam Bradford and running back DeMarco Murray.  Philadelphia’s production should actually increase with the change of personnel this season, especially after seeing what the Eagles’ offense did in their preseason games last month.  They scored 36, 40, and 39 points in their first three games while Bradford completed 87% (13-15) of his passes for 156 yards.  Obviously preseason games are much different than regular season games, but they seem to correlate strongly with Chip Kelly coached teams.  In his two seasons in Philadelphia, the Eagles have scored 33 and 34 points in their season openers.  Kelly runs unique offensive schemes, and he’s usually one step ahead of opposing defenses, especially early in the season.

Atlanta parted ways with head coach Mike Smith after back-to-back losing seasons.  The Falcons made a shrewd hire in Dan Quinn who was Seattle’s defensive coordinator the past two seasons.  Quinn will turn Atlanta’s 26 points per game defense around eventually, but that unit will be in trouble tonight against the up-tempo Philadelphia offense.  The Falcons have offensive weapons all over the field, but 2014 was a lost season due to injuries.  Despite the injuries, Atlanta still scored 24 points or more in eight games last year.  When they were healthy early on, the Falcons scored 37 and 56 points in their first two home games.  With both offenses being the best units on the field, we expect a high-scoring game between the Eagles and Falcons on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total (Eagles/Falcons).

The New York Giants slogged thru a miserable 6-10 season last year; they were just 3-9 going into the last 25% of the season.  However, there are a lot of positive signs for the Giants, especially on the offensive side of the ball.  New York’s offense was simply awful early on as they were learning a completely new system.  But the Giants were explosive down the stretch, averaging 29.2 points per game over their last six games.  QB Eli Manning threw for 4,410 yards with a 30/14 TD/INT ratio.  The Giants’ offense has the potential to one of the best in the league this season, and they get a Dallas defense that will have a difficult time slowing them down.

Dallas will be playing a new style of football this season.  Running back DeMarco Murray left in free agency for rival Philadelphia, and his departure hurts in many ways.  Dallas led the league in time of possession because of their ability to run the football with Murray.  That limited the exposure of their defense, especially a weak secondary that gave up too many big plays.  But without Murray, the Cowboys will have to throw the ball a lot more now with quarterback Tony Romo.  Dallas will have a lot of success throwing the ball in this game, especially since the Giants secondary has been depleted by injuries.  With both teams having strong passing attacks, the two offenses will be the best units on the field and that will result in a high-scoring game on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Baltimore returned to the playoffs despite 2014 being a year of adversity for the franchise.  First came the Ray Rice fiasco off the field, and then the injury bug swept thru the team, especially the defensive secondary.  Baltimore’s offense was the best in franchise history last season, but offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak left for the head job in Denver.  In steps Marc Trestman who flopped in Chicago, and his offensive schemes are totally different which means it will take time for the Ravens to be a consistent unit.  The Baltimore secondary is the unit that needs major fixing, and there’s a very good chance they get exploited in this game, especially if the Ravens fail to stop the dangerous running game of the Broncos.

Denver will begin the new season with a new head coach as former Baltimore offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, takes over.  Kubiak is quite familiar with the Broncos as he called plays in Denver for 11 seasons (1995-2005).  Denver’s offense shouldn’t skip a beat, and their rushing offense will be one of the best in the league, especially since they’ll be utilizing Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme.  The running game will be ultra important because it will open up many big passing plays downfield for quarterback Peyton Manning.  Denver did not have that luxury last season, so defenses were able to play against the pass and make the Broncos a dink and dunk offense.  The Broncos’ defense shaved 3 points per game in 2014, and that unit should improve once again.  Denver has all of the advantages in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play BRONCOS (-).

New Orleans and Arizona have some major question marks on the defensive side of the ball.  The Saints defense was dreadful last season as they gave up 26 points and 384 yards per game.  On the road last season, the Saints gave up 20 points ore more in six of their eight games.  That included games against woeful offenses like the Jets, Buccaneers, and Panthers.  If the preseason was any indication, the New Orleans defense will be even worse this season; they gave up 26, 27, 30, and 38 points in their four games.  Arizona’s defense was stout last season, but they’ve lost some guys and the unit is likely to regress in 2015.  The Cardinals’ defensive line is the biggest concern as that group is a collection of castoffs and draft picks.  That means Arizona is going from one of the best defensive lines in the NFL to one that is vulnerable, especially early in the season.

The Saints and Cardinals both possess potent offenses.  Arizona will go up and down the field on the awful New Orleans defense.  The Cardinals’ first team offense under Carson Palmer was exceptional in the preseason.  Palmer was terrific in camp, and the offense is looking for a breakout season in 2015.  “This year, we’re on the same page now, Andre Ellington said.”  Carson’s back. We have our leader back. When he’s out there, the offense is going smooth.”  New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is also playing fully healthy after dealing with nagging injuries all of last season.  The Saints averaged 25 points on 411 yards of offense last season, and the unit will be even better this year.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Saints and Cardinals on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Detroit had a phony winning season in 2014.  The Lions went 11-5 and lost a playoff game in Dallas.  Detroit regressed sharply on offense last season as they averaged 5 points per game less than they did in 2013.  Overall, the Lions scored just 20 points per game, and they actually scored less than their seasonal average in seven games.  Detroit’s offense was woeful on the road where they averaged just 16.1 points per game.  Five of the Lions’ wins last season came by 7 points or less, including three wins by 2 points or less.  Detroit’s defense was ranked #1 for the majority of last season as they only allowed 18 points per game.  However, the defense was much worse on the road where they gave up 21 points or more five times.  Detroit also lost their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh, to the Dolphins, and that makes their stop unit much weaker coming into this season.

San Diego went 9-7 in 2014 for the second consecutive season, but last year did not result in a playoff appearance.  It was an impressive season for the Chargers considering the amount of injuries they had to deal with.  The Chargers’ offense was horrible down the stretch; they scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games, all losses.  But again, injuries were the culprit.  San Diego’s window to win is now, and that starts in their season opener at home.  San Diego’s offense will be much more consistent as long as they stay healthy.  The Chargers’ defense will be the best they’ve had in quite some time.  They’ve been terrific throughout camp and in their preseason games, and the players have a lot of confidence coming into this season.  “I feel like we have a special unit,” Melvin Ingram said.  “Let the results speak for themselves.”  San Diego is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Chargers in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

UCLA was ultra-impressive in their 34-16 home win over Virginia last week.  While the final winning margin of 18 points doesn’t look so good, the Bruins dominated that game from start to finish.  UCLA out-yarded Virginia 503-336 despite having the ball for 9 minutes less.  The most impressive part of that game was how UCLA controlled the line of scrimmage against one of the better defensive lines in the country.  The Bruins tallied 152 yards on the ground while averaging 4.5 yards per rush against a Virginia defense that only gave up 121 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush last season.  The ability to run the ball opened up the passing game for true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen who completed 80% (28-35) of his passes for 351 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  While it’s true Rosen will be making his first collegiate road start, the game will come at UNLV who has a terrible team and absolutely no home field edge whatsoever.

UNLV comes into this game off a close 38-30 loss at Northern Illinois in their season opener.  The Rebels actually trailed that game by 15 points with 5 minutes left to play, and they gave up 545 yards of total offense.  That was against a mediocre team from the MAC, and now they are taking a monumental step-up in class against UCLA in this game.  UNLV is in serious rebuilding mode with new head coach Tony Sanchez and just 10 returning starters this season.  The Rebels had no less than 13 returning starters in each of the last three seasons, and they went just 11-28 over that span.  UNLV is void of major talent right now, and they are totally out-classed in this game versus UCLA.  The Rebels faced Arizona from the Pac 12 twice in the last two years, and they lost both games by the exact same final score of 58-13.  UCLA is significantly better this season than those two Arizona teams, and UNLV is significantly worse than the teams they fielded in those games.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with UCLA on Saturday night.

10* Play UCLA (-).

Temple comes into this game off a solid 27-10 home win over Penn State last week.  The Owls were 7-point home underdogs in that game, and there was nothing fluky about their win.  Temple out-yarded Penn State 317-179 while controlling the ball for 36 minutes.  The Owls have an exceptional defensive team that returned 10 starters from last season when they held opponents to just 17.5 on 347 yards per game.  Overall, Temple returned 19 players from last year’s 6-6 team.  The Owls are the most experienced team in the AAC, and they are in their third season under head coach Matt Rhule.  Temple plays ball control offense, but quarterback PJ Walker has a lot of mobility which will be a key factor in this game.  Cincinnati’s defensive weakness is on the line of scrimmage, so Temple’s ability to run the ball with their backs and quarterback gives them a big matchup edge in this game.    

Cincinnati waxed Alabama A&M 52-10 last week, but that win means absolutely nothing.  The Bearcats will be stepping way up in class for this game, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Cincinnati does have a fantastic offense led by quarterback Gunner Kiel, but that unit struggled mightily against Temple’s defense last season.  The Bearcats only scored 14 points on 255 yards of total offense.  Cincinnati only ran the ball for 81 yards on 33 carries while averaging just 2.5 yards per rush.  As mentioned above, the Cincinnati defense is the liability in this game, especially their defensive line.  The Bearcats lost four of their top five tacklers from last year’s unit, so Temple will have a huge edge in the trenches.  Temple and Cincinnati are the top two teams in the AAC, and we expect a close game throughout just like last season.  We’ll take the points with the Owls in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play TEMPLE (+).

Oregon State is in a massive rebuilding year in 2015.  The Beavers have a new head coach in Gary Andersen who was at Wisconsin that past two seasons and at Utah State the previous four seasons.  Andersen is a good coach and he made a shrewd hire in defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake from Utah.  However, the Beavers are implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, and there’s only ten returning players with experience.  Oregon State beat FCS Weber State 26-7 at home last week, but it was just a 13-7 game in the third quarter.  True freshman quarterback Seth Collins played terrible as he completed just 10 of his 18 passes for 92 yards.  Now he’ll be making his first collegiate road start while stepping way up in competition against a terrific Michigan defense.  Collins and the Oregon State offense will have an extremely difficult time moving the football in this game.  While things look bright in the future for Oregon State, the team will suffer thru a tough 2015 starting in this game on Saturday.

Michigan was up against it last week in their season opener.  The Wolverines had to play on the road in the thin air and altitude of Utah, and they were also playing a stout defensive team.  Michigan did not play bad at all considering the circumstances, and in fact, the Wolverines out-gained Utah 355-337 despite losing 24-17.  Michigan returns home for this game, and they are in a fantastic situational spot for a big win.  New head coach Jim Harbaugh knows how big of a game this is, and Michigan gets the perfect opponent to beat by a big number.  The Wolverines’ offense is led by senior quarterback Jake Rudock who started 25 games at Iowa.  Rudock threw three interceptions last week, but that was a rare thing since he only had 18 total turnovers in his previous 25 starts.  Michigan’s offense will play significantly better in this game as they are taking a monumental step down in class, going from the stout Utah defense to an Oregon State defense that only has 2 returning starters from last season.  We’ll lay the points with Michigan in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

Pittsburgh squeezed into a playoff spot last season, but they’ll be hard-pressed to return to the post-season in 2015.  The Steelers went 11-5 in 2014, and six of their wins came by 8 points or less, including a pair of wins coming by exactly 3 points.  So that means more than half of their wins were close, and those close games tend to reverse the following season.  The Steelers are an old and aging team with a defense that needs a major makeover.  Pittsburgh somehow went 6-1 versus winning teams in 2014 despite a mediocre defense that allowed 368 points during the season.  They gave up 30 points or more in four games, and they gave up 27 points or more in six games overall.  Pittsburgh snapped a 2-year playoff drought last season simply by luck, but they’ll revert back to a non-playoff team in 2015.

New England comes in off a Super Bowl championship.  The Patriots have won the AFC East title six straight years, and in eleven of the last twelve years overall.  New England has simply been a dominant force in the NFL, and we expect that to continue, especially in tonight’s game against the overmatched Steelers.  Fortunately for New England, QB Tom Brady’s suspension was overturned, and he will play in this game.  The Patriots have opened the season on the road in the last four seasons, so with this game being at home, we can expect a prime effort.  The last time the Patriots opened their season at home (2010), they walloped the Bengals 38-24.  New England will play with an “us against the world” mentality after getting slammed by the media for the recent “Deflate Gate” debacle.  The Patriots are simply the superior team in this matchup, so we’ll lay the points with New England, especially since they’ve won 10 of their last 15 regular season home games by 7 points or more.

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Ohio State is looking to avenge last season’s 35-21 home loss to Virginia Tech on Monday night.  There was nothing fluky about that game as Virginia Tech held the potent Buckeyes’ offense to just 327 yards of total offense with 108 of those yards coming on the ground; they averaged just 2.7 yards per rush.  Ohio State had an incredible rushing attack that averaged 264 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush last season, so it was ultra impressive what Virginia Tech’s defense did in that game.  Ohio State ran the table and won the National Championship after that loss, so what the Hokies did in that game makes it even more eye-opening.  It’s true that Ohio State has an even better team this season, but so does Virginia Tech.  Plus the Buckeyes are dealing with suspensions to some of their better players (DE Joey Bosa being one), so they are not at full strength for this game. 

Virginia Tech only went 7-6 in 2014, but five of their six losses came by 7 points or less with three losses coming by 3 points or less.  Virginia Tech returns 16 total starters (8 on each side of the ball) this season, so they’ll have a much better win/loss record in 2015.  The Hokies always possess a stout defense; they allowed just 20.2 points per game on 344 yards of offense per game last season.  Virginia Tech allowed 30 points or more in just two games last season, and the 21 points they held Ohio State to were 10 points less than the 31 points or more they scored in their other 14 games.  The Hokies held the Buckeyes to 23.8 points less than their season average of 44.8 points per game.  This line is simply inflated, especially since Virginia Tech was just an 11.5-point road underdog in last year’s meeting.  We’ll take the Hokies plus the points in this game on Monday night.

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

Arkansas State will be a good team in the Sun Belt conference this season, but they are simply out-classed in this game versus USC.  The Red Wolves have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years as their defense cannot stop teams from BCS conferences.  In their last six road games versus power conferences, Arkansas State has allowed 34, 41, 38, 41, 57, and 42 points.  The Red Wolves have no chance to match points with the potent USC offense in this game, especially since they’ll have limited scoring opportunities.  Arkansas State returns just six starters on defense, and that unit was awful last season despite playing with seven returnees from the season before.  The Red Wolves gave up 30.5 points on 421 yards per game, and that unit will get roughed-up in this game against Southern Cal.

USC is a loaded team that includes 14 starters from last year’s 9-4 team that had to play a brutal schedule with multiple injuries and limited depth.  Head coach Steve Sarkisian is in his second season in Los Angeles, and his team will improve significantly in 2015.  The Trojans have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their offense will be led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Cody Kessler.  He completed 69.7% of his passes last season for 3,826 yards with an exceptional 39/5 touchdown/interception ratio.  The Trojans are on a mission this season after the mess they’ve been thru over the last few seasons.  USC is not going to take this game lightly as they need to impress to get back on the national radar.  We’ll lay the points with the Trojans on Saturday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Troy will begin a new era on Saturday night as new head coach Neal Brown replaces Larry Blakeney who won 178 games over the last 24 seasons.  Troy had a terrible 3-9 record in 2014, and a major reason for that was the poor play of their offense which averaged just 21.8 points per game.  The Trojans’ defense has been a sieve in recent years, and in fact, Troy has allowed 30 points per game or more in five straight seasons.  With Brown implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, Troy will go thru growing pains, especially early on this season.  Troy has been noncompetitive when playing on the road against BCS schools in recent years.  Last season, the Trojans lost 66-0 at Georgia.  The season before, Troy lost 62-7 at Mississippi State.  Both of those SEC teams have power running attacks, and that is the exact type of team Troy will face in this game at North Carolina State.

NC State will be in their third year under head coach Dave Doeren.  The Wolfpack improved on both sides of the ball last season, and we expect major improvement once again in 2015.  Doeren has 15 returning starters back from last season’s 8-5 team which averaged 30.2 points per game on 409 yards of offense per game.  NC State’s strength is running the football; they averaged 205 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush last season.  Quarterback Jacoby Brissett made a huge difference for this team after transferring from Florida.  He’s a dual threat quarterback that creates a lot of big plays with his arm and his legs, and that ability makes NC State’s offense difficult to stop.  This game is a mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Wolfpack on Saturday night.

9* Play NC STATE (-).

Texas-San Antonio was expected to be a really good team last season as they returned 20 starters from a team that went 7-5 the previous season.  But the Roadrunners failed miserably as they went just 4-8 in 2014.  Now UTSA comes into this season will little expectations as they are one of the youngest and least experienced teams in college football.  The Roadrunners only have 6 returning starters from last season, and they have limited depth on the two-deep after graduating the majority of their team.  UTSA will start a redshirt freshman (Blake Bogenschutz) at quarterback which is certainly a negative, especially with this game being on the road against a strong Pac 12 team.  Head coach Larry Coker has also indicated that Bogenschutz will not be the only quarterback to play in this game, and that is not good for the mindset of a young signal caller.  “The No. 1 job is very close and it isn’t over. This thing is going to battle out throughout the year. You may see more than one quarterback the first ball game.”  Bogenschutz and any other quarterback will play behind a makeshift offensive line that is a complete mess coming into this game.  The Roadrunners altered their line just this week, moving their right guard to center.  “We’re just going to put our best five on the field,” said coach Mike Markuson.  “However we have to get ’em on the field, right guard, center, it doesn’t matter.”  Those quotes show there’s no stability, and it means UTSA will have a difficult time moving the football in this game.

Arizona returns 7 offensive starters from last year’s team that went 10-4.  The Wildcats averaged 34.5 points per game on 464 yards per game in 2014, and that was with a freshman quarterback under center.  Anu Solomon returns for his sophomore season, and the offense will be even better than they were a season ago.  Solomon faced UTSA in the second game of last season; that was his first collegiate road start, and it came on a short week.  Solomon still lead the Wildcats to 26 points on 454 yards of offense.  Arizona ran for 223 yards on 5.1 yards per rush, and they will dominate on the ground once again in this game.  Head coach Rich Rodriguez is in his fourth season in Tucson, and his team has come out scoring in the last two years.  Arizona won their home opener 35-0 in 2013, and last season they won their home opener 58-13.  This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats on Thursday night. 

10* Play ARIZONA (-).

Seattle has played fantastic football down the stretch.  The Seahawks are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS over their last eight games; they are 11-1 SU over their last twelve games.  As impressive as their recent run has been, we have to put it into context.  Seattle played some of the worst offenses and quarterbacks in the NFL during their winning streak.  The Seahawks faced Derek Carr, Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (2x), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, and Cam Newton (2x) in nine of their recent eleven wins.  Those seven quarterbacks are all terrible passers, so it should be of no surprise that Seattle’s defense gave up more than 17 points just twice in those eleven games.  Seattle faced Aaron Rodgers in their last game, and with an injured calf, he had the Packers in front by 12 points (19-7) with just over two minutes to play, and that was on the Seahawks’ strong home field.  Seattle will now face one of the best offenses and one of the best quarterbacks in the league in back-to-back games, and they won’t be so fortunate in the Super Bowl on a neutral field.

New England has an identical 14-4 record as Seattle, and both teams are 5-3 away from home this season.  One of the Patriots’ losses was in a throw away game in Week 17 when they pulled their starters early.  So in truth, the Patriots are 14-3 in meaningful games this season with one of those losses coming in Green Bay by just 5 points (26-21).  The Seahawks were just dominated on their home field by the Packers and a hobbled Rodgers, so it’s clear that the Patriots have played the better football this season.  New England’s offense is averaging 30.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has strong seasonal numbers, but the Seahawks played an extremely weak group of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.7 points per game this season.  The Patriots average 7.7 points per game more than the opponents Seattle faced, and since New England faced strong defenses all season, their offense holds a big edge over Seattle’s defense in this game.  We’ll back New England in Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday night.  

10* Play PATRIOTS.

Indianapolis’ win last week in Denver can easily be discounted.  The Colts simply beat a team with an old and injured Peyton Manning at quarterback while Denver was playing for a soon to be gone coaching staff.  While all of that is true, we were still impressed with the Colts in that game, and we fully expect them to give New England all they can handle in this game.  Indianapolis has already played the Patriots this season, and they lost 42-20 at home as a 3-point home favorite.  The Colts also played in New England in the playoffs last season, and they got crushed 43-22 as 7.5-point underdogs.  The past results certainly put some doubt into the Colts’ chances, but Indianapolis is simply playing too good right now to put much stock into the previous outcomes.  The Colts are averaging 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against defenses that are only allowing 23.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Indianapolis’ offense has been just as good on the road where they are averaging 28.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

New England is 0-5 ATS in their past five AFC Championship game appearances.  They are not invincible, and that was clearly evident in their 35-31 win over Baltimore last week.  The Patriots trailed by 14 points twice in that game, so they were somewhat fortunate to win and move on.  New England wasn’t able to get much separation from their opponents down the stretch this season, and in fact, three of New England’s last four wins have come by single digits with the average margin of victory only being 4.7 points per game.  The Patriots’ defense gave up 31 points and 428 yards of offense to the Ravens last week.  Overall this season, New England is allowing 5.6 yards per play against offenses that are only averaging 5.5 yards per play.  The Patriots’ defense is also dealing with injury issues at cornerback, and their best cover guy, Darrelle Revis, may be a step too slow to shutdown T.Y. Hilton if he has to cover him in this game.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the Colts plus the points in the AFC Championship on Sunday night.                    

9* Play COLTS (+).

Indianapolis’ offense has been terrific this season.  The Colts are averaging 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play overall.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against defenses that are only allowing 23.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Indianapolis’ offense has been just as good on the road where they are averaging 28.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Colts will face a New England secondary that has injury concerns, and a secondary that allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only averaged 6.5 yards per pass attempt this season.  Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck has thrown 40 touchdown passes while averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season.

New England also has a strong offense, especially at home where they are averaging 33.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Patriots have had fantastic success running the ball on the Colts in the last two meetings.  New England ran for 480 yards on 90 carries while scoring 42 and 43 points in those two games.  Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady has thrown 33 touchdown passes while averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt this season.  New England’s offense will score their share of points against an Indianapolis defense that is allowing 26.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  The weather forecast is calling for rain, but the temperature will be near 40 degrees, so it is unlikely to limit scoring.  The three head-to-head meetings between Andrew Luck and Tom Brady have soared Over the total (3-0) with combined scores of 83, 65, and 62 points.  We expect another high-scoring game between the Colts and Patriots in the AFC Championship game on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Green Bay didn’t play their best football last week, but the Packers did just enough to beat Dallas 26-21 and advance.  Dallas was a much better team than people realized, and Green Bay’s close game was expected as we had a selection on the Cowboys in that game.  Green Bay will now take to the road and play in Seattle for the second time this season.  The Packers were crushed 36-16 by the Seahawks in the season opener, and that result combined with Green Bay’s close call last week has inflated the point spread on this game.  My power ratings only make Seattle a 4-point favorite, so we are getting outstanding line value with the Packers in this game.  Green Bay is a very good team with a potent offense.  The Packers are averaging 30.1 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that are only allowing 22.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.

Seattle has played fantastic football down the stretch.  The Seahawks are on a current 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS run and they are 10-1 SU during their past eleven games.  As impressive as their recent run has been, we have to put it into context.  Seattle played some of the worst offenses and quarterbacks in the NFL during their winning streak.  The Seahawks faced Derek Carr, Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (2x), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, and Cam Newton (2x) in nine of their recent ten wins.  Those seven quarterbacks are all terrible passers, so it should be of no surprise that Seattle’s defense gave up more than 17 points just once in those ten games.  Seattle will now face one of the best offenses and one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and while Aaron Rodgers may be hobbled with his calf injury, he is still significantly better than the quarterbacks Seattle has faced.  Rodgers played extremely well last week with 316 passing yards (9.0 ypp) and a 3/0 TD/INT ratio.  This line is simply way too high, so we’ll take the points with Green Bay in the NFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon.    

10* Play PACKERS (+).

Ohio State has been ultra-impressive in their last two games.  The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big 10 championship game, and they beat Alabama 42-35 in the Sugar Bowl.  Ohio State did that with their third string quarterback, Cardale Jones, which makes the wins even more impressive.  However, both of those wins came against similar teams as both Wisconsin and Alabama play power football, looking to win games with their big and physical offensive lines while running a pro style offense.  Those teams also have a similar look on the defensive side of the ball as they use their size and strength to overpower opponents.  Ohio State is built in a similar fashion, so the match-ups for the Buckeyes couldn’t have been any better.  The Buckeyes will face an Oregon team that is completely different than the teams they just played, and they are at a huge disadvantage since they’ve only had ten days to prepare for this game.  Ohio State did not face a team with the skill and speed of Oregon all season, and with this game inside a dome on a fast track, the Ducks’ quickness edge will be even more pronounced, especially as the game goes on.      

Oregon has steamrolled their opponents all year.  Twelve of Oregon’s thirteen wins have come by 12 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 29.7 points per game.  The Ducks have an explosive offense that averages 47.2 points per game on an incredible 7.4 yards per play.  Those stellar offensive numbers came against a collection of defenses that allowed 31.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Ohio State’s defense has strong seasonal numbers, but keep in mind they did not face an explosive offense like Oregon’s all season.  The Buckeyes’ defense faced a slate of offenses that only averaged 28.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Oregon’s offense averages 18.9 points per game more and 1.7 yards per play more than the average of Ohio State’s opponents.  Ohio State’s defense is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season, and the Buckeyes will be hard-pressed at slowing down the Ducks.  Oregon’s defense has faced a slate of explosive offenses that averaged 30.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Ducks held those teams to just 22.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Oregon is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in the National Championship Game on Monday night. 

10* Play OREGON (-).

Indianapolis played their season opener in Denver on a Sunday night, and the Broncos won 31-24.  However, that game was not nearly as close as the 7-point margin suggests.  The Colts were dominated from the opening kick off; they trailed 24-7 at the half and 31-10 with just 8 minutes left to play.  Indianapolis scored two late touchdowns with one coming after a successful onside kick.  The Colts had an easy game last week at home against a shorthanded Cincinnati team that was missing four key starters in that game, two on each side of the ball.  Indianapolis is in for a much stiffer challenge in this game, especially since they have to take to the road and play outside in the cold, thin air, and altitude of Denver.  The Colts have been a much weaker team on the road this season; their defense gave up 28.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play away from home.  Those poor numbers came against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.        

Denver coasted down the stretch, and the Broncos used that time to get rested and healthy for the playoffs.  The Broncos are a perfect 8-0 SU at home this season with seven of their eight wins coming by 7 points or more.  Denver’s offense has been unstoppable at home where they are averaging 35.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  Those outstanding offensive numbers have come against a strong slate of defenses that only allow 21.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Denver’s offense torched the Colts’ defense in the first meeting, and there’s no reason they won’t do it again in this game.  Indianapolis played three playoff teams on the road this season, and the results were not pretty.  The Colts lost 31-24 in Denver, 51-34 in Pittsburgh, and 42-7 in Dallas.  We expect another blowout loss by Indianapolis, so we’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on late Sunday afternoon.               

10* Play BRONCOS (-).

Dallas didn’t play their best football last week, but the Cowboys did just enough to beat Detroit 24-20 and advance.  The Cowboys will now take to the road where they are a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as a road underdog.  Dallas’ offense has been terrific lately as they’ve scored 44, 42, 38, 41, and 24 points over their last five games.  Overall, Dallas is averaging 28.9 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against a good collection of defenses that are only allowing 23.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Tony Romo is having the best season of his career as he led the NFL in completion percentage (69.9%), yards per pass attempt (8.5), and quarterback rating (113.2) during the regular season.  Dallas also has a very good running game that is averaging 142.5 yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.  The Cowboys will have success on the ground against a Green Bay run defense that allows 4.3 yards per rush.     

Green Bay is a very good team, but we see the Cowboys and Packers much closer than the point spread indicates.  The Packers are a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS at home this season, so they’ve been tough on their home field.  However, four of their home wins did come by 10 points or less, including a pair of wins by 6 and 5 points.  Green Bay’s offense is potent, and there’s really no negatives to cite.  But quarterback Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a calf injury which may hinder his mobility some, and that may give Dallas a nice little edge.  Green Bay’s defense is prone to giving up points against good offenses; they allowed 36 points to the Seahawks, 44 points to the Saints, 21 points to the Patriots, and 37 points to the Falcons.  Dallas is much better than people realize, so we’ll take the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play COWBOYS (+).

Carolina comes into this game on a 5-game winning streak, but we fully expect their season to come to an ugly end on Saturday night.  The Panthers had a losing record in the regular season, and losing teams that make the playoffs tend to get blown out if they won their first playoff game.  Since 2002, there have been seven teams, including Carolina, to make the playoffs with an 8-8 record or worse, and five of those teams won their first playoff game.  In their next playoff game, all five teams lost by 11 points or more with their average loss coming by 20 points per game.  Carolina faced a slew of dead teams down the stretch, and their win over Arizona last week was not impressive, especially since they failed to capitalize on the Cardinals’ atrocious play.  The Panthers’ offense is terrible, and we’ll be surprised if they score more than 10 points in this game.  In their last three games against Seattle, the Panthers have scored 9, 7, and 12 points.  All three of those games came in Carolina, and playing a playoff game in the toughest stadium in the NFL is going to be a nightmare for the weak Panthers’ offense.      

Seattle closed the season on a major roll; the Seahawks went a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS since November 23rd.  While the Seahawks did play a bunch of weak teams with weak quarterbacks in those games, they are facing the same situation in this game.  Seattle is the superior team across the board in this game, and their strength of running the ball will be too much for Carolina to stop.  The Seahawks averaged 172.6 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush this season.  They put those numbers up against a slate of defenses that only allowed 111.3 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Over the last month of the season, Carolina’s defense was gouged on the ground for 4.8 yards per rush while ranking 22nd in rush defense.  Seattle is 7-1 at home, and their last four home wins have all come by double digits, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Saturday night.           

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

Toledo and Arkansas State are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Sunday night.  Toledo has a potent offense that averaged 34.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season.  The Rockets are extremely well-balanced as they ran for 251.3 yards and threw for 239 yards per game this season.  Toledo will be facing a poor Arkansas State defense that allowed 35.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play away from home this season.  Those awful defensive numbers for the Red Wolves came against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 25.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  Against the five bowl teams they faced this season, Arkansas State allowed 31 points on 408 yards of offense per game.     

Arkansas State also had a very good offense this season.  The Red Wolves averaged 36.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 29.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Like Toledo, the Red Wolves were extremely well-balanced as they ran for 229.9 yards and threw for 248.2 yards per game this season.  Toledo’s defense played below average football this season as the Rockets gave up 29.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only averaged 26.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Against the six bowl teams they faced this season, Toledo allowed 34 points on 435 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Toledo and Arkansas State on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Detroit went 11-5 in the regular season with four of their five losses coming on the road.  And none of those losses were pretty; 24-7 in Carolina, 14-6 in Arizona, 34-9 in New England, and 30-20 in Green Bay last week.  There are some common traits in those games that will be evident in this game in Dallas.  The Lions’ offense was terrible in three of those losses, and their defense got torched by the two good offenses they faced; the Patriots scored 34 points and the Packers scored 30 points with a hobbled Aaron Rodgers.  Detroit gave up 53 first downs and 816 yards of offense in those games.  The Lions’ other road games have come against the dregs of the league: Jets, Vikings, Falcons, and Bears.  Overall, Detroit has faced a weak slew of passing offenses this season as their opponents have only averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  That will change here against one of the most potent passing offenses in the NFL.       

Dallas returns home off a 44-17 blowout win in Washington last week.  The Cowboys’ offense has been unstoppable lately as they’ve scored 44, 42, 38, and 41 points over their last four games.  Overall, Dallas is averaging a whopping 29.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against a good collection of defenses that are only allowing 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Tony Romo is having his best season of his career while leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.9%), yards per pass attempt (8.5), and quarterback rating (113.2).  The Lions’ secondary is awful, and they’ve already got torched by Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers on the road this season.  Dallas is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

10* Play COWBOYS (-).

This is the rubber match between Baltimore and Pittsburgh after each team won on their hime field earlier this season.  The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-6 back in early September and the Steelers beat the Ravens 43-23 back in early November.  We expect tonight’s game to resemble the most recent meeting in Pittsburgh as the teams matchup well for a high-scoring game.  Baltimore’s offense hasn’t looked that good over the last three weeks as they scored just 53 total points.  However, the Ravens played three solid defensive teams, especially in the secondary.  Prior to those games, Baltimore’s offense scored 21 points or more in eight consecutive games while averaging 30 points per game.  Overall, the Ravens are averaging 25.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season versus defenses that are allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Baltimore will be facing a weak Steelers’ defenses in this game, so they are actually taking a step-down in class.               

Pittsburgh has been all offense and no defense this season, especially at home.  The Steelers’ defense is giving up 24.7 points per game on an ugly 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a slate of weak offenses that only average 21.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s pass defense is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average just 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  In two meetings this season, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco completed 68.9% (51-74) of his passes against Pittsburgh for 469 yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception.  The Steelers’ offense has been fantastic at home this season where they are averaging 32.1 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Baltimore’s secondary is a complete mess, and they are taking a major step-up in class against Ben Roethlisberger after facing Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Connor Shaw over the last three weeks.  Big Ben carved Baltimore up at home this season when he threw for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns.  Overall, the Ravens’ defense is allowing 24.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Ravens and Steelers on Saturday night.    

10* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma State was terrible this season, and the Cowboys needed to beat rival Oklahoma as 19.5-point underdogs in their season finale to qualify for a bowl game.  Oklahoma State went just 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS overall this season, and there was a lot of turmoil between head coach Mike Gundy and booster T. Boone Pickens.  The Cowboys were not a cohesive group all season, and we don’t expect things to be much different now.  Oklahoma State will be without their best playmaker, Tyreek Hill, who is off the team after getting arrested.  Oklahoma State had terrible quarterback play after J.W. Walsh got hurt; Daxx Garman was simply terrible.  In a move of desperation to save face, Gundy had to lift the redshirt off true freshman QB Mason Rudolph.  In his two starts, Oklahoma State lost 49-28 at Baylor and they beat Oklahoma 38-35.  The Cowboys may have their quarterback of the future, but this will just his third collegiate start, and it comes against a terrific Washington defense that allowed just 24.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 32.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play this season.        

Washington closed the year playing some of their best football of the season.  The Huskies were in their first year under head coach Chris Petersen, and it took them a while to catch on to his system.  But once they did, the team was outstanding, and we expect them to dominate their opponent in this game.  Washington has a terrific rushing attack that averaged 195.3 yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  The Huskies will run all over an Oklahoma State defense that allowed 208 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush against the seven bowl teams they faced this season.  The Cowboys allowed 200 yards or more four times this season, and they gave up 42, 34, 49, and 35 points in those games.  Washington’s wins this season have been big as seven of their eight wins have come by 7 points or more.  Oklahoma State’s losses this season have been big as five of their six losses have come by 21 points or more.  We’ll lay the points with Washington in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play WASHINGTON (-).

Ohio State and Alabama both have explosive offenses, and on a fast track inside a dome, we expect a high-scoring game.  The Crimson Tide have an offense that averaged 37.1 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Alabama is extremely well-balanced as they run and pass for more than 208 yards per game.  The Crimson Tide running game averaged 5.1 yards per rush this season, and they will face an Ohio State run defense that is not in good current form.  The Buckeyes have allowed 179 rushing yards or more in three of their last five games.  Prior to their shutout of Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game, the Buckeyes’ defense had given up 24 points or more in four straight games, and overall they allowed 24 points or more in eight of their thirteen games this season.   

Ohio State will once again play this game with backup quarterback Cardale Jones after J.T. Barrett broke his ankle in the regular season finale.  Jones was terrific against Wisconsin, and we expect more of the same from the Ohio State offense in this game.  Overall this season, the Buckeyes averaged 45.2 points per game on 7.0 yards per play.  They put those strong numbers up against a good slate of defensive opponents that only allowed 25.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Buckeyes will face an Alabama defense that has faced a slew of weak offenses that only averaged 5.7 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide defense allowed 20 points or more in six games this season despite playing poor scoring offenses.  We expect a high-scoring game between Ohio State and Alabama in the Sugar Bowl on Thursday night.   

10* Play OVER the total.

Ohio State has played tremendous football this season, and they didn’t skip a beat in the Big 10 Championship Game event though they were playing with their third-string quarterback.  The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin 59-0 and earned their way into the college football playoffs.  Overall this season, Ohio State’s offense averaged 45.2 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  Those impressive offensive numbers came against a strong slate of defenses that allowed just 25.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Ohio State has an exceptional rushing attack that averaged 261 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.  That strong running game has opened up big plays downfield for Ohio State, and it has allowed their quarterbacks to throw for an incredible 9.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Buckeyes have fantastic offensive balance, and teams with such a profile are exceptional plays as underdogs.

Alabama went 12-1 SU this season, but the Crimson Tide weren’t as dominant as some of their previous teams.  Alabama won five games by 11 points or less with three of those wins coming by 7 points or less.  The Crimson Tide actually played a worse slate of defenses than Ohio State as their opponents allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Buckeyes’ defense was better than Alabama’s opponents as they gave up just 21 points per game on 4.7 yards per play away from home this season.  The Crimson Tide only went 6-6 ATS this season, including a 1-2 ATS mark as a single digit favorite.  That lone spread cover was fortunate as it came against LSU when Alabama won 20-13 in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite.  These two teams are much closer than the point spread indicates, so we’ll take Ohio State plus the points in this national semifinal on Thursday night.   

9* Play OHIO STATE (+).

Florida State has been living on the edge all season, and we expect their good fortunes to come to an end in this game against Oregon.  The Seminoles are on a 29-game winning streak, but the biggest difference between this year’s team and last year’s team has been the close games.  Florida State blew out all their opponents last season; they won thirteen games by 14 points or more.  This season, Florida State has only won five games by 14 points or more with their other eight wins coming by an average of just 5.1 points per game.  The Seminoles have found ways to win games in which they trailed by double digits, and usually that’s a sign of a really good team.  But we have to take into account the opponents played, and frankly, Florida State’s opponents were a mixed bag of mediocre and bad teams.  If the Seminoles were as good as last season, close games would not have been against the likes of Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami Florida, Boston College, Florida, and Georgia Tech.  All of those teams have name recognition, but none of them are close to being in the upper echelon of college football this season.

Oregon comes into this game like the Florida State of last season; the Ducks have steamrolled their opponents all year.  Eleven of Oregon’s twelve wins have come by 12 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +28.8 points per game.  The Ducks have an explosive offense that averaged 46.3 points per game on an incredible 7.3 yards per play.  Those stellar offensive numbers came against a collection of defenses that allowed just 31.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Florida State’s defense was tremendous last season, but this year’s stop unit is significantly worse.  Away from home, the Seminoles gave up 30.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play despite playing a weak group of offenses that averaged just 26.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Florida State’s defense is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season, and the Seminoles have virtually no chance at slowing down the Ducks.  We’ll lay the points with Oregon in this national semifinal game in the Rose Bowl. 

9* Play OREGON (-).

Minnesota and Missouri are evenly matched, so this game should be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  Missouri played the slightly tougher schedule, but the team’s overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board.  Minnesota went 8-4 SU and a solid 7-4 ATS this season.  Three of their four losses came to TCU, Ohio State, and Wisconsin who went a combined 33-5 in the regular season.  Those three teams are simply superior to Minnesota; their other loss only came by 4 points at Illinois.  The Golden Gophers’ offense is better than perceived as they averaged 29.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 27 points per game on just 5.3 yards per play.        

Missouri surprised many by going 10-3 SU this season.  The Tigers figured to be down a few notches after losing a slew of talent from last year’s 12-2 team.  Despite the strong record, Missouri played in a lot of close games this season as six of their last seven wins came by 10 points or less with the average win only coming by 8.8 points per game.  It’s also interesting to note that Missouri was an underdog in seven of their last nine games of the season; they were favored against the two dregs of the SEC, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.  The Tigers’ offense underperformed this season as they only averaged 5.3 yards per play against defenses that allowed 5.4 yards per play.  That weak Missouri offense will face a good Minnesota defense that only gave up 23.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season.  Missouri also has a good defense, but Minnesota’s offense has scored 24 points or more in eleven of their twelve games this season.  We’ll take the points with Minnesota as this game comes right down to the wire.

9* Play MINNESOTA (+).

Michigan State and Baylor will be an entertaining game, and it’s quite likely that the team that has the ball and scores last wins this game.  The Spartans have a reputation of a stout defensive team, but that was last year.  The Michigan State of this season is totally different as they are an explosive offensive team that has scored 27 points or more in every game this season.  Overall, the Spartans averaged 43.1 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season.  Those impressive numbers were put-up against defenses that allowed 29.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Michigan State is extremely well-balanced as they run for 234.9 yards per game and throw for 261.6 yards per game.  The Spartans only travel 11.5 yards to score a point which shows just how efficient they are.  Michigan State will face a Baylor defense that gave up 26.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play away from home this season.

Baylor has one of the best offenses in the country.  The Bears are simply an offensive juggernaut that has scored 27 points or more in every game this season.  Overall, Baylor averaged 48.8 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  The Bears were also quite efficient as they only had to travel 11.9 yards to score a point.  Baylor’s impressive offensive numbers came against a slate of defenses that allowed 32.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  While those opposing defenses were weak overall, keep in mind Baylor will now be facing a Michigan State defense that was shredded when facing good offenses this season.  The Spartans gave up 46 points and 491 yards of offense to Oregon and they gave up 49 points and 568 yards of offense versus Ohio State.  We expect both offenses to be the best units on the field, and that will result in a high-scoring game between Michigan State and Baylor in the Cotton Bowl on Thursday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Boise State and Arizona is a terrific matchup for a back and forth high-scoring shootout.  The Broncos have a potent offense that averaged 39.8 points per game on 6.5 yards per play this season.  Boise State is extremely well-balanced as they run and pass for over 219 yards per game.  The Broncos played ten bowl opponents this season, and their offense didn’t slow down at all.  They averaged 36 points per game on 494 yards per game while gaining 6.3 yards per play.  The impressive thing about Boise State’s offensive numbers is the fact they accumulated them against a solid group of opposing defenses.  The Broncos’ opponents only allowed 26.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Arizona played eight bowl opponents this season, and their defense gave up 27 points and 455 yards per game.         

Arizona has an explosive offense that averaged 34.8 points and 462 yards of offense per game while gaining 5.8 yards per play this season.  The Wildcats put those numbers up against a group of defenses that allowed 29.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Arizona has a potent running game that racked-up 157 rushing yards or more in seven games this season.  Boise State allowed 156 rushing yards or more in five games this season, and they gave up 35.8 points per game when failing to stop their opponent’s running game.  Boise State’s defense was shredded on the road this season as they allowed 32.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Those poor defensive numbers came against a group of offenses that only averaged 27.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between Boise State and Arizona on Wednesday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Mississippi opened the season with seven straight wins before losing 10-7 in the last minute at LSU.  That loss lingered as the Rebels lost two of their next three games.  But Mississippi bounced back strong in their season finale which resulted in a 31-17 win over their rival Mississippi State.  That win gave the Rebels their confidence back, and with a month to prepare for TCU, we expect a big performance by Mississippi in this game.  The Rebels were excellent on both sides of the ball this season.  They averaged 30.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Mississippi’s defense was tremendous this season as they only gave up 13.8 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Rebels faced ten bowl teams this season, and they gave up just 16 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.     

TCU can’t be too happy that they are playing in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.  The Horned Frogs were ranked #3 in the playoffs, but they got left out of the top 4 despite winning their season finale over Iowa State by a score of 55-3.  To make matters worse, this game is not even on New Year’s Day, and it comes with an early kick off.  TCU will likely be flat for this game, and that’s going to show on the defensive side of the ball.  Overall, the Horned Frogs only allowed 20.3 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  However, there are two areas in which they dropped significantly.  On the road, TCU’s defense allowed 26.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced, TCU allowed 24 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Those numbers clearly show the Horned Frogs’ defense was worse on the road against good competition.  TCU played five bowl teams over a stretch of six games and they gave up 36 points per game.  Mississippi also played the much tougher schedule, #6 versus #44, so the Rebels performed better against the tougher opponents.  The Big 12 has looked terrible while going 0-3 in bowl games so far, so we’ll take the points with the SEC-based Rebels in this early game on Wednesday afternoon.    

10* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Mississippi and TCU have played similar on offense this season.  The Rebels and Horned Frogs both play at a fast pace while hitting a lot of big plays, and that style often leads to high-scoring games, especially when the teams play each other.  Mississippi’s offense averaged 30.4 points on 443.5 yards of offense per game this season; they averaged 6.3 yards per play.  The Rebels ran for 150 yards or more seven times this season, and they averaged 38.4 points per game when doing so.  TCU’s defense allowed 150 rushing yards or more three times this season, and the Horned Frogs gave up 33, 61, and 30 points in those games.  Against seven bowl opponents this season, TCU gave up 24 points per game on 403 yards of offense.  The Horned Frogs were extremely vulnerable in the secondary as they allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt in those games.

TCU has a potent offense that is averaging 46.8 points per game on 6.8 yards per play this season.  The Horned Frogs are well-balanced as they average 209.3 yards on the ground and 332.8 yards thru the air per game this season.  TCU’s offense also played well away from home as they averaged 45.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Mississippi does have a very good defense, but in their three losses this season, the Rebels allowed 25 points per game with two of those opponents scoring 30 points or more.  TCU has scored 30 points or more in all twelve of their games this season, so Mississippi is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Mississippi and TCU on Wednesday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Louisville flew well under the radar all season.  The Cardinals come into this game at 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS.  Louisville has been strong despite instability at the quarterback position.  Starter Will Gardner was lost for the season, and freshman Reggie Bonnafon played well in his place before he got injured.  Kyle Bolin came in and also played well; both Bonnafon and Bolin are slated to play in this game against Georgia.  That gives Louisville a nice edge since Georgia does not have much game film to devise a solid game plan.  Louisville’s success this season has been because of their terrific defense that is only giving up 20.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  The Cardinals have put up those strong defensive numbers against offenses that are averaging 26 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Cardinals’ defense has actually played better away from home as they are only giving up 17 points per game on 4.3 yards per play on the road this season.  Louisville’s strong defense has allowed them to play close games as their three losses have come by a total of 19 points this season.           

Georgia also comes into this game with a 9-3 SU record.  The Bulldogs have obviously played the tougher schedule in the SEC, but they are definitely facing the toughest defense they’ve seen all season.  Overall, Georgia’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 26.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Bulldogs will take a big step-up in defensive class against Louisville in this game, especially since the Cardinals allow 6.4 points per game less than the opponents Georgia has faced.  The Bulldogs are without their longtime offensive coordinator Mike Bobo who left to take the head coaching job at Colorado State.  The Bulldogs’ offensive plays will be called by John Lilly who has never called plays before.  Georgia’s offense will also be facing their former defensive coordinator, Todd Grantham, who now holds the same position at Louisville.  The coaching match-ups definitely give Louisville a major edge in this game.  Georgia will also be without one of their best defensive players as Leonard Floyd is out due to an injury.  Reports out of Georgia’s camp say their defense is much weaker without Floyd because they have to run a different scheme, and it makes them extremely vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks.  Louisville QB Bonnafon is a tremendous runner, so his mobility gives the Cardinals another advantage.  We’ll take the points with Louisville in this game on Tuesday night.   

10* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Texas and Arkansas were bitter rivals back in the old Southwest Conference, and with this game being played in Houston, Texas, we expect a huge crowd and an intense ballgame.  Texas obviously holds the site edge with this game being played in their home state, so we can expect the Longhorns to bring their best effort.  Texas went just 6-6 in their first year under head coach Charlie Strong, but the team has taken on the personality of their coach.  The Longhorns are a physical bunch that relies on their defense to win games.  Overall, Texas is allowing just 23.2 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  Those strong defensive numbers have come against a slate of potent offenses that average 33.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Longhorns played eight bowl teams this season, and their defense only allowed 27 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.   

Arkansas went 6-6 in their second year under head coach Bret Bielema.  The Razorbacks got national attention late in the season when they beat LSU and Mississippi by a combined score of 47-0 in back-to-back weeks.  Like Texas, the Razorbacks win with their defense as they are only giving up 20.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Arkansas’ defense will face their first true dual threat quarterback this season as Texas’ Tyrone Swoops has rushed for 495 yards on the year.  Arkansas hasn’t had to worry about a mobile quarterback this season, but Swoops’ ability to make plays with his legs could very well be the determining factor in this game.  The posted total on this game is low at 44 which indicates a defensive struggle.  That makes the points extremely valuable, and since Texas has a lot of motivation for this game, we’ll take the Longhorns plus the points on Monday night.  

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Clemson quietly went 9-3 this season with their three losses coming against Georgia, Florida State, and Georgia Tech.  Those three teams are a combined 32-6 on the season, so the Tigers can’t be ashamed of those losses.  Clemson’s quarterback situation has been in and out with Deshaun Watson and Cole Stoudt sharing the starts.  Watson got hurt twice with his latest being a season-ending ACL injury.  Stoudt played late in the year, and now he has had a full month to prepare for this game against Oklahoma.  The Tigers’ offense will be much more efficient, especially since their strong running game will open up passing plays downfield.  Clemson has run for 146 yards or more six times this season, and they averaged 37.8 points per game when doing so.  Oklahoma’s defense allowed 148 rushing yards or more four times this season, and the Sooners gave up 37, 26, 31, and 48 points in those games while going 1-3 SU with the lone win coming by just 5 points.  Overall, Clemson averages 30.1 points on 409 yards of offense per game this season; they’ve eclipsed those averages five times this season.  

Oklahoma played in the Sugar Bowl last season, and the Sooners pulled off a major upset when they beat Alabama 45-31 as 16.5-point underdogs.  Oklahoma was a preseason Top 5 team that failed to live up to their lofty expectations after going just 8-4 this season.  Now they find themselves playing in the lowly Russell Athletic Bowl; they can’t be too thrilled about this game.  Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight and running back Samaje Perine are both coming back from injury, and they will face a strong Clemson defense that is only allowing 17.6 points per game on 4.0 yards per play this season.  Oklahoma hasn’t faced a defense like Clemson’s all season, and it also doesn’t help that the Tigers’ defensive coordinator is Brent Venables who held the same position for the Sooners for 12 seasons under Bob Stoops.  That’s a nice edge for Clemson, especially since they’ve had a month to prepare.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Clemson on Monday night.  

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Clemson and Oklahoma have played similar on offense this season.  The Tigers and Sooners both play at a fast pace while hitting a lot of big plays, and that style often leads to high-scoring games, especially when the teams play each other.  Clemson’s offense averaged 30.1 points on 409 yards of offense per game this season; they’ve eclipsed those averages five times this season.  The Tigers ran for 146 yards or more six times this season, and they averaged 37.8 points per game when doing so.  Oklahoma’s defense allowed 148 rushing yards or more four times this season, and the Sooners gave up 37, 26, 31, and 48 points in those games.  Against eight bowl opponents this season, Oklahoma gave up 30 points per game on 417 yards of offense.  The Sooners were extremely vulnerable in the secondary as they allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt while giving up 20 touchdown passes on the season.

Oklahoma has a potent offense that is averaging 38.9 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season.  The Sooners are well-balanced as they average 268.6 yards on the ground and 211.9 yards thru the air per game this season.  Oklahoma’s offense actually played better away from home as they averaged a whopping 43.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  Head coach Bob Stoops has a history of scoring a lot of points in bowl games; the Sooners have scored 31 points or more in four of their last five bowl games.  Clemson does have a very good defense, but in their three losses this season, the Tigers gave up 45, 23, and 28 points.  Oklahoma has scored 30 points or more in eleven of their twelve games this season, so Clemson is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Clemson and Oklahoma on Monday evening.

10* Play OVER the total.

Cincinnati won a big home game on Monday night against the Broncos, and we expect the Bengals to carry momentum into this game in Pittsburgh.  This game is for the division title, so we expect a close game throughout.  Cincinnati is playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed at home three weeks ago when the Steelers beat them 42-21 as 3-point underdogs.  That game setup perfectly for Pittsburgh, and we had a Best Bet winner on them, so we were not surprised by the outcome.  Cincinnati actually led 21-17 going into the fourth quarter, so the final score was not indicative of how the game played out.  The Bengals have a good defense, and it’s actually been better on the road this season.  Cincinnati is only allowing 17.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play on the road this season.  

Pittsburgh has won and covered their last three games, including their win in Cincinnati.  Their other two games were against the Falcons and Chiefs who have struggled recently, so it’s not like the Steelers have been beating the best teams.  Pittsburgh has been all offense and no defense this season, especially at home.  The Steelers’ defense is giving up 25.9 points per game on an ugly 6.3 yards per play at home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a slate of weak offenses that only average 21.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s pass defense is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average just 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  The Steelers are just 3-3 ATS as a home favorite this season, so they’ve also failed to surpass point spread expectations.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Cincinnati on Sunday night. 

9* Play BENGALS (+).

Detroit and Green Bay are playing for the division title, so we can expect a true to form game this afternoon.  The Lions are 11-4 on the season, but three of their four losses have come on the road.  And none of those losses were pretty; 24-7 in Carolina, 14-6 in Arizona, and 34-9 in New England.  There are some common traits in those games that will be evident in this game in Green Bay.  The Lions’ offense was terrible in all three of those losses, and their defense got torched by the one good offense (Patriots) they faced.  Detroit gave up 29 first downs and 439 yards of offense in that game.  The Lions’ other road games have come against the dregs of the league: Jets, Vikings, Falcons, and Bears.  Overall, Detroit has faced a weak slew of passing offenses this season as their opponents have only averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt.  That will change here against one of the most potent passing offense in the NFL.       

Green Bay returns home off back-to-back road games in which their offense scored a total of 33 points.  The Packers have been unstoppable at home this season, and we expect them to expose the Detroit defense in this game.  Green Bay is averaging a whopping 41.1 points per game on 7.0 yards per play at home this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against a good collection of defenses that are only allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Green Bay is throwing for an incredible 8.9 yards per pass attempt at home this season, so as mentioned above, the Lions are taking a major step-up in class in this game.  This is also a big revenge game for Green Bay after they lost 19-7 in Detroit earlier this season.  That was simply a terrible spot for the Packers, and Detroit scored on a fumble return and a safety in that game.  The Packers are the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

10* Play PACKERS (-).

Philadelphia has tanked down the stretch; the Eagles have lost three consecutive games and four of their last six games overall.  Last week’s loss in Washington knocked Philadelphia out of the playoffs, so today’s game in New York means absolutely nothing.  After winning four of his first five games, quarterback Mark Sanchez has reverted back to his old self.  Sanchez has played terrible football while failing to lead his team to any wins over the last three weeks.  And it doesn’t help that the Eagles’ defense has been torched for 89 points over the last three games.  Overall, the Philadelphia defense has been weak this season, especially on the road where they are giving up 26.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that only average 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.     

The New York Giants are closing the season in the opposite way of the Eagles.  The Giants have won and covered their last three games while out-scoring their last three opponents by a combined score of 97-50.  Over their last five games, New York’s offense has averaged 29.8 points per game while scoring 24 points or more in every game.  The Giants’ offense will continue their strong play, especially in their home finale against an Eagles’ defense that is not in good current form.  This is also a big revenge game for the Giants after they got embarrassed 27-0 in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football earlier this season.  These two teams are coming into this game from opposite directions, so we’ll back the hot and confident New York Giants in this early game on Sunday.

9* Play GIANTS (-).

Nebraska is a fragile team coming into this game against USC.  The Cornhuskers are extremely disappointed in the firing of head coach Bo Pelini, and his dismissal has caused friction between the players and the athletic department.  Nebraska will play tonight’s game under interim head coach Barney Cotton, and we do not expect the Cornhuskers to put much effort into this game.  Overall, Nebraska played a mediocre schedule this season, and once the competition got tougher, we saw some major chinks in the armor, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Nebraska gave up 30 points per game on 413 yards of offense against the eight bowl teams they faced this season.  USC will be the best offense Nebraska has faced this season, so the Cornhuskers’ defense will get lit-up in this game.  

USC went 8-4 during the regular season, and all four losses came against bowl teams.  They lost to Utah, and the Utes won their bowl game in a blowout; the other three teams have yet to play.  USC gets to play this game in their home state of California, and they will certainly have the crowd edge as San Diego is just over 100 miles from campus.  The Trojans are excited to play in this game, so we expect a big effort.  USC has a potent offense that is averaging 35.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 29.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Trojans also have a strong defense that allows just 23.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 31 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  USC is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, and since Nebraska is in a state of flux, we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Saturday night.   

9* Play USC (-).

Duke has a strong 9-3 record this season, but the Blue Devils played an extremely easy schedule.  In fact, Duke played the 81st schedule this season compared to Arizona State who played the 38th toughest schedule in the country this season.  Duke is playing in their third consecutive bowl game under head coach David Cutcliffe.  The Blue Devils are 0-2 in those games because their defense could not stop the opposing offenses; they gave up 48 points to Cincinnati in 2012 and last year they gave up 52 points to Texas A&M.  This season, Duke once again has a solid offense that is averaging 32.5 points per game, but a phony defense.  The Blue Devils have solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played an extremely weak group of offenses that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Duke is taking a major step-up in offensive class against Arizona State in this game, and we expect the Blue Devils’ defense to get exposed.           

Arizona State also went 9-3 in the regular season, but the Sun Devils played in the much better conference.  Arizona State has a potent offense that is averaging 37 points per game this season.  The Sun Devils are well-balanced as they average 170.2 yards on the ground and 276.3 yards thru the air per game this season.  Arizona State’s offense played just as good away from home as they averaged 36.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Head coach Todd Graham has a history of blowing teams out in bowl games; 62-28 in 2012, 62-35 in 2010, 45-13 in 2008, and 63-7 in 2007.  Last year, Arizona State lost 37-23 to Texas Tech as 17-point favorites and that defeat has lingered with Graham and his team.  The Sun Devils are motivated, and since they are the superior team, we’ll lay the points with Arizona State in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

10* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Duke and Arizona State have two offensive-minded coaches and two experienced quarterbacks that will result in a high-scoring shootout.  The Blue Devils’ offense averaged 32.5 points per game this season, and their recent bowl history suggests a lot of points in this game.  Duke is 0-2 over the last two years in bowl games because their defense could not stop the opposing offenses; they gave up 48 points to Cincinnati in 2012 and last year they gave up 52 points to Texas A&M.  The Blue Devils have solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played an extremely weak group of offenses that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Against five bowl opponents, Duke gave up 31 points per game on 476 yards of offense this season.  Duke is taking a major step-up in offensive class against Arizona State in this game, and we expect the Blue Devils’ defense to get exposed.       

Arizona State has a potent offense that is averaging 37 points per game this season.  The Sun Devils are well-balanced as they average 170.2 yards on the ground and 276.3 yards thru the air per game this season.  Arizona State’s offense played just as good away from home as they averaged 36.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Head coach Todd Graham has a history of scoring a lot of points in bowl games; 62 points in 2012, 62 points in 2010, 45 points in 2008, and 63 points in 2007.  Last year, Arizona State only scored 23 points in a loss to Texas Tech, and that defeat has lingered with Graham and his team.  The Sun Devils’ defense allowed 29 points per game against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, so Duke’s offense will also be able to score some points in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Duke and Arizona State on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Rutgers and North Carolina are evenly matched, so this game should be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  The teams played similar tough schedules, Rutgers #47 and North Carolina #33, and their overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board.  The Scarlett Knights went 7-5 SU and a solid 8-4 ATS this season.  Two of their losses came to Ohio State and Wisconsin who played in the Big 10 title game while other losses came at Michigan State and at Nebraska.  Those four teams are simply superior to Rutgers; their other loss only came by 3 points against Penn State.  The Scarlett Knights’ offense is better than perceived as they averaged 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 5.4 yards per play.  Rutgers’ offense has a good shot at breaking out in this game against a Tar Heels’ defense that is one of the worst in the country.        

North Carolina went just 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS on the season.  All six of their losses did come against teams playing in bowl games, but five of those six losses came by 15 points or more with the average loss coming by 20.5 points per game.  North Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the country as they are giving up 38.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  The Tar Heels gave up 44 points per game away from home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a group of offenses that averaged 31.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  North Carolina went 2-2 ATS as a favorite this season with their two wins coming by just 5 points apiece.  Overall, four of the Tar Heels’ five wins against FBS opponents only came by an average of 3.8 points per game with winning margins of 4, 5, 1, and 5 points.  We’ll take the points with Rutgers as this game comes right down to the wire.   

10* Play RUTGERS (+).

Rutgers and North Carolina are evenly matched, so this game should be a back and forth high-scoring shootout.  The Scarlett Knights’ offense is better than perceived.  They lost five games this season, but four of those losses came to Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska.  Rutgers scored a total of 44 points in those four games.  If we eliminate those games against the superior opponents, Rutgers’ offense averaged 32.9 points per game.  Overall, the Scarlett Knights’ averaged 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 5.4 yards per play.  Rutgers’ offense has a good shot at breaking out in this game against a Tar Heels’ defense that is one of the worst in the country.        

North Carolina is giving up 38.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  The Tar Heels gave up 44 points per game away from home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a group of offenses that averaged 31.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Against bowl opponents, North Carolina gave up 41 points per game on 516 yards of offense per game.  The Tar Heels allowed 5.2 yards per rush, 9.0 yards per pass attempt, and 6.7 yards per play overall.  While their defense is atrocious, North Carolina does have a good offense that averaged 34.2 points per game.  Their offense showed no dip in play against bowl opponents as they scored 33 points per game.  Rutgers’ defense gave up 36 points per game on 6.8 yards per play against the seven bowl teams they played this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Rutgers and North Carolina on Friday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Fresno State and Rice both come into this game off losses, and since both teams are happy to be here, we expect a good effort from each team.  Fresno State had a losing record at 6-7, but their six wins qualified them for a bowl.  The Bulldogs’ offense was explosive at times this season.  If we eliminate their awful games against good teams like USC, Nebraska, and Boise State, the Bulldogs’ offense averaged 31.9 points per game.  Fresno State has a well-balanced offense as they are averaging 183.9 yards on the ground and 234.8 yards thru the air per game.  The Bulldogs will face a poor Rice defense that is allowing 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Those numbers are even worse on the road where they are giving up 37.7 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.    

Rice opened their season with three straight losses, but they regrouped and won seven of their final nine games of the season.  The Owls’ offense was terrific in those wins as they averaged 32.9 points per game.  Rice also has a well-balanced offense as they are averaging 170.9 yards on the ground and 223.6 yards thru the air per game.  The Owls threw for 8.2 yards per pass attempt this season, and they will have a lot of success throwing on a terrible Fresno State secondary that gave up 8.6 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Bulldogs’ defense was gashed all season as they gave up 32.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  We expect both passing offenses to have success as the Fresno State and Rice secondaries allowed a combined 53 touchdown passes this season.  Look for a high-scoring game between Fresno State and Rice in the Hawaii Bowl on Wednesday night.      

10* Play OVER the total.

Central Michigan and Western Kentucky both went 7-5 this season.  Both teams played extremely easy schedules, so this game in the Bahamas is a nice reward.  The Chippewas’ offense played much better away from home this season.  Central Michigan averaged 28 points per game on 5.9 yards per play on the road this season.  They put those numbers up against a collection of defenses that gave up just 5.7 yards per play.  The Chippewas scored 34 points or more in three of their six road games this season.  Central Michigan will score at will on a terrible Western Kentucky defense that is allowing 39.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Hilltoppers’ defense was even worse on the road where they gave up 48.2 points per game on a whopping 6.8 yards per play.  

Western Kentucky has a potent offense that plays at an extremely fast pace.  Overall this season, the Hilltoppers averaged 44 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  They put those strong numbers up against a slate of defensive opponents that are allowed 30.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Western Kentucky will face a Central Michigan defense that has faced a slew of weak offenses that only averaged 24.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Chippewas’ defense will face the best offense they’ve seen all season, and they won’t be able to stop the Hilltoppers from scoring 40 points or more in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Central Michigan and Western Kentucky in this game on Wednesday afternoon.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Tonight’s game between Denver and Cincinnati has playoff implications, and because of that, we expect a low-scoring game.  The Broncos have changed their style of play in recent games as they’ve switched to running the football a lot more.  Denver is 4-1 to the Under over their last five games.  They went Over the total in all six of their previous games.  There are swirling rumors that Peyton Manning is not healthy, and his arm strength has decreased tremendously.  Denver has been cautious with Manning, and he’s only attempted 74 passes over the last three games.  There was some talk of resting Manning tonight as the Broncos only need to win one of their last two games to secure the #2 seed; they host the lowly Raiders next week.  Head coach John Fox is conservative, so we expect tonight’s game plan to be run heavy in order to protect whatever is ailing Manning.     

Cincinnati has also played in low-scoring games recently.  The Bengals are 5-1 to the Under over their last six games; they went Over the total in four of their previous five games.  Cincinnati’s offense has struggled against strong defensive teams this season, and overall the Bengals are only averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Those poor numbers have come against defenses that are allowing 23.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Bengals will face a very good Denver defense that is giving up just 21.6 points per game on 4.6 yards per play on the road this season.  Cincinnati’s defense has been good this season while allowing just 20.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Broncos and Bengals on Monday night.

9* Play UNDER the total.

Seattle is on a roll; the Seahawks have won and covered the spread in four straight games.  But let’s put those wins into perspective.  Seattle beat Arizona at home after coming off a road loss in Kansas City.  Then they won at San Francisco as road underdogs and at Philadelphia as 1-point favorites.  And then last week they beat the 49ers again in an ugly 17-7 defensive struggle.  Seattle got three total wins over the Eagles and 49ers, two teams that are struggling mightily right now; they are a combined 0-6 SU during their past six games.  The Seahawks are now the flavor of the month, and the line on tonight’s game is greatly inflated because of their recent results.  Seattle closed as just a 7.5-point home favorite when they played the Cardinals last month, but now they are laying more points against the same opponent on the road.

Arizona last played on a Thursday night, so the extra time off will help them, especially since Ryan Lindley is slated to start at quarterback.  The Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season, so there’s a lot of value in getting more than a touchdown with Arizona in this game.  The Cardinals have a strong defense, especially at home where they are only giving up 15 points per game.  Arizona’s run defense has been terrific all season as they are allowing just 90.4 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.  Seattle’s offensive line struggled in the first meeting as Russell Wilson got sacked seven times in that game.  The Seahawks lost their starting left tackle to injury in last week’s game, and his absence is a major loss.  Seattle has four losses on the season, and it’s interesting to note that Arizona is 5-0 SU against the teams that beat Seattle.  We’ll take the generous points with the strong defensive home underdog in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play CARDINALS (+).

The New York Giants have found a new life in recent weeks.  After losing three consecutive close games, including a blown 21-0 lead against Jacksonville, the Giants could have easily packed it in for the rest of the season.  But they didn’t, and they’ve won and covered their past two games.  The Giants out-scored their last two opponents by a combined score of 60-23.  Over their past four games, New York has averaged 28 points per game while scoring 24 points or more in every game.  The Giants’ offense should continue their strong play, especially since they’ll be indoors on a fast track against a Rams’ defense that has faced some of the worst passing offenses in the league over the last three weeks.  Prior to their past three games, the Rams’ secondary had allowed 958 passing yards during a three game span.

St. Louis comes in off an ugly 12-6 home loss to the Cardinals in their last game.  That was on a Thursday night, so the Rams do have some extra rest.  But considering the team isn’t going anywhere, that extra rest isn’t that meaningful.  St. Louis is getting a lot of respect in the betting market because of their recent 4-game ATS winning streak before last week' loss.  The Rams had gone 3-1 SU in those games, but two of the wins came against a pair of terrible teams, the Raiders and Redskins.  St. Louis has a poor offense that has been terrible all season long.  The Rams are averaging just 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  St. Louis has no business laying points into an offense that is better than their’s, so we’ll take the points with the Giants in this game on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play GIANTS (+).

Minnesota has certainly played better football since late October.  The Vikings are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS, but four of those games came at home.  Minnesota is just 1-2 on the road during their recent good run, including an 8-point loss at a terrible Chicago team.  The Vikings will be playing on a back-to-back road set after losing 16-14 in Detroit last week.  Minnesota was up 14-0 in the first quarter, and they failed to do anything over the final 45 minutes of the game.  The Vikings’ offense has been poor all season as they are only averaging 19.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Those terrible numbers have come against defenses that are allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Minnesota is taking a big step-up in defensive class as the Dolphins are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.  

Miami returns home off a 41-13 blowout loss in New England last Sunday.  That was Miami’s third loss over their last four games, but they lost to the Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens who are a combined 31-11 on the season.  We’re willing to forgive the Dolphins for those losses, and we expect a big effort in this home game.  Miami’s offense has played much better at home where they are averaging 24 points per game, and since they’ve scored 16 points or less in their last three games, we anticipate a breakout game against the Vikings.  Minnesota’s defense has been vulnerable on the ground all season; they’ve allowed 122 rushing yards or more in five of their last six games.  They’ve allowed that number in eight games this season.  Minnesota is a cold weather team that has played at home or in a dome over the last four weeks, so the heat and humidity of South Florida will be an issue on Sunday.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this early game on Sunday. 

9* Play DOLPHINS (-).

Bowling Green is one of the worst teams to make a bowl game this season.  The Falcons come into this game in a tailspin as they’ve lost three straight games, and four of their last six games overall.  Bowling Green has been dreadful versus the point spread; they are just 2-7-1 ATS over their last ten games.  Normally, teams like Bowling Green present some value because of their recent results, but that’s not the case at all here.  My power ratings have South Alabama as a 3.5-point favorite, and since this line is currently less than 3, the oddsmakers did not inflate the spread at all despite Bowling Green’s poor current form.  The Falcons have underperformed on both sides of the ball this season.  Bowling Green is averaging just 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.8 yards per play.  On defense, the Falcons are giving up 33.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.         

South Alabama is playing in their first bowl game, and they get to stay in state which gives them a huge site advantage for this game.  The Jaguars are no world beaters by any stretch of the imagination, but they are much more motivated to play in this game than Bowling Green.  The Jaguars have played good defense this season, so they also hold a defensive edge over the Falcons.  Overall, South Alabama is giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 30.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Jaguars’ defense has actually been better away from home where they are giving up 24.2 points per game on just 5.2 yards per play.  South Alabama is set for a big effort in what essentially is a home game, so we’ll lay the points with the Jaguars in this game on Saturday night.      

9* Play SOUTH ALABAMA (-).

San Diego has played good football since coming off their bye.  The Chargers are 3-2 with their two losses coming at home against the Patriots and Broncos who are a combined 22-6 on the season.  Going out on the road is a good thing for the Chargers right now, and we expect a strong bounce back effort in this game, especially since they are taking a big step-down in class.  San Diego’s offense has played above average football this season.  The Chargers are averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.4 yards per play.  San Diego’s offense will be facing a San Francisco defense that is not in good current form right now.  The 49ers have allowed 5.9 yards per play over their last three games which is in sharp decline from their seasonal average of 5.3 yards per play. 

San Francisco has lost three consecutive games, and the wheels seem to be coming off this team.  The 49ers’ offense has struggled all season long, and their backfield is in flux with Frank Gore suffering a concussion last week and Carlos Hyde out of this game with an ankle and back injury.  Overall, San Francisco’s offense is averaging just 17.9 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The 49ers will face a solid San Diego defense that is only giving up 21 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Chargers have a better defense than the average opponent San Francisco has played this season.  San Diego is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Chargers in this game on Saturday night. 

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

Tennessee and Jacksonville are two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they come into tonight’s game with identical 2-12 records.  One of Tennessee’s wins came at home over Jacksonville; the Titans won 16-14 back in Week 6.  That was a phony win for Tennessee as they were thoroughly out-played by the Jaguars.  Jacksonville held a 27-14 first down edge while out-gaining Tennessee 379-290 in total yardage.  Jaguars’ quarterback Blake Bortles also out-played Titans’ quarterback Charlie Whitehurst by a substantial margin.  Bortles completed 32 of his 46 passes for 336 yards while Whitehurst completed 17 of his 28 passes for 233 yards.  Tennessee won because of a +2 turnover edge, but if the Jaguars hold onto the ball in this game, we expect a different outcome.    

Jacksonville is playing better football than people think, especially on defense.  Overall, the Jaguars rank 6th in the NFL with 38 sacks; they sacked Whitehurst three times in the first meeting.  Jacksonville has allowed just two passing touchdowns over their last three games, and that means it’s going to be difficult for Tennessee to move the ball with consistency in this game.  The Jaguars’ offense has scored just 25 total points in their last two games, but they actually have a good shot at breaking out tonight against a Tennessee defense that is giving up 30.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play on the road this season.  This is Jacksonville’s final home game of the season, so we expect a strong effort and a comfortable win over Tennessee on Thursday night.  

10* Play JAGUARS (-).

New Orleans comes into this game off another baffling home loss, and not many will want to back the Saints in this game, especially since they are laying points on the road.  However, this is a very good spot to take New Orleans, especially since the pointspread is deflated a couple of points because of the recent results.  The Saints still possess one of the best offenses in the NFL despite their poor 5-8 record.  New Orleans is averaging 25.6 points per game on a strong 6.2 yards per play.  The Saints have racked up 393 yards of total offense in ten of their thirteen games this season; New Orleans had 525 total yards in their last Monday night game against the Ravens.  New Orleans will be facing a poor Chicago defense that is allowing 29.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Bears’ defense has given up 75 points and 871 yards of total offense in their last two games.

Chicago is in terrible current form; they are just 3-7 SU over their last ten games.  Chicago’s recent play suggests they’ve packed it in for the season, and tonight they will be without their best offensive player as Brandon Marshall was lost for the season last week.  The Bears’ offense has played below average football all season; Chicago averages just 20.2 points per game at home.  Chicago’s defense just can’t stop anybody, and they’ll be facing a strong New Orleans’ offense that is off their worst performance of the season when they only scored 10 points on 310 yards of offense last week.  The Bears have allowed 77.5% (55-71) pass completions for 595 yards on a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempts with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions over their last two games.  Chicago has allowed a league-high 30 touchdown passes this season.  New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees will have a monster game, and the Saints’ offense will be too much for the Chicago defense, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play SAINTS (-).

Dallas is 3-1 since losing back-to-back home games at the end of October.  The Cowboys lone loss over their last four games also came at home.  That was a 33-10 embarrassment on Thanksgiving at the hands of Philadelphia.  The Cowboys certainly remember that terrible performance, and in an important game, we expect a strong effort tonight.  Dallas’ offense has been terrific on the road this season.  The Cowboys are averaging 32.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Cowboys have a fantastic running game that is averaging 148.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.  Dallas’ ability to run the ball has allowed QB Tony Romo to make big passing plays downfield all season.  Romo is completing 69.1% of his passes while throwing for a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt. 

Philadelphia is off a 24-14 home loss to Seattle.  The Eagles were atrocious in that game as they only had 139 yards of total offense.  Philadelphia’s defense was shredded for 440 yards by the Seahawks with 188 of those yards coming on the ground.  The Eagles have allowed 281 rushing yards over their last two games, and that’s not a good thing since they will be facing a strong Dallas rushing attack.  Overall this season, Philadelphia’s defense has played below average football.  The Eagles are giving up 23.8 points per game versus offenses that are only averaging 22.6 points per game.  Philadelphia will now face a Dallas offense that is scoring 9.6 points per game more than the average Eagles’ opponent this season.  The Cowboys also hold a significant scheduling edge for this late in the season as they last played on a Thursday night, giving them a few extra days to get ready for this game.  We’ll take the points with Dallas in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play COWBOYS (+).

Philadelphia’s offense has been terrific at home this season, but they scored just 14 points on 139 yards of offense last week.  The Eagles are averaging 33.4 points per game on their home field this season.  Overall, Philadelphia’s passing attack is averaging 270.3 yards per game on 6.9 yards per pass attempt.  The Eagles will face a weak Dallas secondary that is allowing an ugly 7.4 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only average 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  Philadelphia scored 33 points on 464 yards of total offense against the Cowboys’ defense on Thanksgiving, so another strong offensive showing is expected.

Dallas also has a strong offense, especially on the road where they are averaging 32.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Cowboys have a fantastic running game that is averaging 148.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.  Dallas’ ability to run the ball has allowed QB Tony Romo to make big passing plays downfield all season.  Romo is completing 69.1% of his passes while throwing for a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  The Cowboys will have a lot of success against a Philadelphia defense that has played below average football this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cowboys and Eagles on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Oakland beat Kansas City as 7-point home underdogs three weeks ago on a Thursday night.  That was the Raiders first win of the season, and they celebrated like they won the Super Bowl.  Kansas City felt disrespected by the extended celebration, and they finally get the chance to atone for that loss.  After that win over Kansas City, the Raiders got crushed 52-0 in St. Louis the following week.  Off that embarrassment, the Raiders beat the 49ers 24-13 as 8.5-point home underdogs last week.  So Oakland has alternated wins and losses over their last three games with both wins coming on their home field.  Despite the recent wins, the Raiders are still a horrible team.  Oakland’s offense is awful as they are averaging just 15.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Those numbers are even worse on the road where they are averaging an anemic 11.4 points per game on 4.3 yards per play.

Kansas City’s loss in Oakland started their current 3-game losing streak.  The Chiefs also lost to Denver and Arizona, but those losses can be excused.  Kansas City has an exceptional rushing attack that is averaging 127.8 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  The Chiefs will run all over a terrible Raiders’ defense that has allowed 264 rushing yards over their last two games.  Kansas City’s offense is averaging 24.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home this season.  Those numbers have come against defenses that are only giving up 21.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Oakland’s defense has given up 27.3 points per game on the road this season.  The Chiefs’ defense has been strong at home, allowing just 17.7 points per game this season.  Kansas City is the superior team and playing with legitimate revenge, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday.  

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

We cashed a Best Bet winner on Pittsburgh going against Cincinnati last week, but we’re going to back the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.  The Steelers were in a terrific bounce back spot while holding some nice matchup edges.  Cincinnati fits that profile for this game.  The Bengals are in a good bounce back spot after losing 42-21 at home last week.  That was a bad spot for the Bengals after returning home off a 3-game road winning streak and facing a potent Pittsburgh passing attack that was in good form.  Things get much better and much easier for the Bengals in this game against the Browns.  Cincinnati is playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed at home on a Thursday night when the Browns beat them 24-3 as 6-point underdogs.  The Browns were in much better form then as they were 4-1 over their previous five games before playing the Bengals.  Cleveland comes into this game with a 1-3 record over their last four games.  

Cleveland comes in off a demoralizing 25-24 home loss to the Colts last week.  The Browns gave up the winning touchdown with just 32 seconds left to play after blowing a 21-7 lead.  The Browns are now desperate, and that’s evident by the fact that they will start rookie QB Johnny Manziel in this game.  Manziel will be facing a good Cincinnati defense off a terrible performance, so his task will be difficult.  The Bengals’ defense is only allowing 20.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season.  Despite scoring 25 points last week, the Browns’ offense only mustered 248 yards of total offense; they benefitted from 4 Indianapolis turnovers.  Cincinnati has been significantly better than Cleveland over the last four games as the Bengals are +6 in point differential while the Browns are -31 in point differential.  Cincinnati is the better team, and since they are playing with strong motivation, we’ll back the Bengals in this game on Sunday. 

9* Play BENGALS (+).

Green Bay is having a terrific season as they are 10-3 overall while riding a 5-game winning streak.  However, we’ve seen some regression in the Packers’ margin of victory over their last three games.  Green Bay’s first seven wins came by an average of 22.6 points per game with six of the seven wins coming by 7 points or more.  The Packers’ last three wins have come by an average of just 4.7 points per game, and two of those games were at home.  Green Bay is just 3-3 on the road this season with two of those wins coming by 3 points apiece.  Green Bay’s offense is terrific, but their defense has underperformed this season, especially on the road where they are allowing 26.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play to opponents who average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.        

Buffalo is in a good bounce back spot for this game against Green Bay.  The Bills come in off a 24-17 loss in Denver, and a return home will bring out Buffalo’s best effort, especially since this is their final home game of the season.  Buffalo’s defense has been terrific this season.  The Bills are giving up just 18.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play against offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Buffalo’s pass defense is allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 6.5 yards per pass attempt.  The Bills have a good enough defense to contain Green Bay’s offense, especially since the Packers have been weaker on the road this season.  This is a bad spot for Green Bay as they are playing an out of conference opponent on the road after playing at home on Monday night.  We’ll take the points with Buffalo in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play BILLS (+).

Army and Navy will play for the 115th time on Saturday afternoon.  The game will be played in Baltimore on the home field of the Ravens.  Navy has won 12 consecutive games in this series, and they will likely win again as they are 15-point favorites.  This series has also seen the Under go a perfect 8-0 the last eight years, and we expect another low-scoring game this year.  Army and Navy both run the same option offense, and the familiarity makes it extremely difficult for the teams to score many points.  Army runs the ball on 85.5% of their offensive plays while Navy runs the ball on 81.7% of their offensive plays.  That means the clock will be running, shortening the game while limiting possessions. 

The Black Knights have played below average football on offense this season.  Army is only averaging 26.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play against defenses that allow 30.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Army’s offense will have trouble moving the ball consistently in this game, especially since Navy’s defense has played decently this season.  The Midshipmen are giving up 29.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play, but keep in mind they’ve played some explosive offenses like Ohio State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame.  Navy gave up 119 points in those three games, skewing their seasonal numbers.  Army and Navy simply know how to defend the triple-option offense, so we expect a low-scoring game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play UNDER the total.

Arizona began the season at 9-1, but they’ve gone just 1-2 SU over their last three games.  Both of those losses came on the road, and we expect that trend to continue tonight.  The Cardinals were dealt a big blow when quarterback Carson Palmer was lost for the season with a knee injury.  Drew Stanton has been terrible in Palmer’s place, leading the Cardinals to just two touchdown drives over the last 15 quarters.  The Cardinals’ offense is in terrible current form as they’ve scored 17 points or less in four consecutive games.  Arizona’s struggles will continue tonight against a St. Louis defense that is playing their best football of the season; the Rams come in off back-to-back shutouts.

St. Louis is playing much better football now than they were earlier this season.  The Rams have won three of their last four games while holding their opponents to a total of 7 points in those three wins.  St. Louis’ defense has been fantastic, recording 34 sacks since Week 7.  The Rams’ defensive line is a nightmare match-up for a weak quarterback like Drew Stanton, especially since he’s been playing poorly.  Arizona won the first meeting 31-14, but Carson Palmer played in that game and the Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns.  St. Louis held the Cardinals to just 28 rushing yards in that game, so this game is going to be on Stanton’s shoulders.  St. Louis is simply playing better football right now, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play RAMS (-).

Atlanta has played much better football recently as they are 3-1 SU over their last four games.  The Falcons were dreadful early in the season as they went just 2-6 SU over their first eight games.  Atlanta’s first five losses of the season all came by 10 points or more, but their last two losses have come by just 1 and 2 points.  Despite the poor start to the season, Atlanta’s offense has played above average football overall.  The Falcons are averaging 24.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 23.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Atlanta’s defense has also improved significantly as they’ve held four of their last five opponents to 22 points or less.  The Falcons gave up 24 points or more in six of their first seven games. 

Green Bay is having a terrific season as they are 9-3 overall, including a perfect 6-0 at home.  However, we’ve seen some regression in the Packers’ margin of victory over their last two games.  Green Bay’s first seven wins came by an average of 22.6 points per game with six of the seven wins coming by 7 points or more.  The Packers’ last two wins have come by an average of just 4 points per game; they beat the Vikings 24-21 and the Patriots 26-21.  Green Bay is now a double digit favorite for the first time this season, and they are laying those points into an Atlanta team that is in tremendous current form.  The value is clearly on the Falcons side, so we’ll take the big points with Atlanta in this game on Monday night.

10* Play FALCONS (+).

New England comes in off a loss in Green Bay last Sunday, so we can expect a bounce back effort in this game.  The Patriots’ offense played one of their worst games of the season as they scored just 21 points on 320 yards of total offense.  New England’s offense is too good to play another clunker.  The Patriots are averaging 31.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play against defenses that are only allowing 22.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England will be facing a San Diego defense that has allowed 23 points or more in six of their last seven games.  The Chargers gave up 28 points or more in four of those games, and they allowed 33 points or more in three of those games.  The San Diego defense is not in good current form at all, and the Patriots’ offense will take full advantage of that.   

San Diego comes in off a momentum-building 34-33 win in Baltimore.  The Chargers scored the winning touchdown with just 38 seconds left to play.  Off such a win, we expect San Diego to come with another solid effort, especially in a spotlight home game against one of the best teams in the league.  The Chargers’ offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 61 points on 850 yards of total offense in their last two games.  San Diego will be facing a New England defense that is allowing 24.8 points per game and 5.8 yards per play on the road against offenses that are averaging 23 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Chargers’ offense averages 25.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Patriots and Chargers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Houston is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Jacksonville.  The Texans played their best game of the season last week when they crushed the Titans 45-21.  Houston put-up 457 yards of total offense in that game while quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Fitzpatrick was pulled earlier this season for ineffectiveness, and he was only playing last week because Ryan Mallett got hurt.  That was Houston’s second blowout of Tennessee as they won the first meeting 30-16.  Last week was an abnormal game for the Texans’ offense considering they only average 23.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play against defense that allow 24.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Houston has virtually no shot in matching last week’s production, and the line is grossly inflated because of their recent results.  

Jacksonville is quietly playing better football as the season goes on.  The Jaguars are off a 25-24 comeback home win over the Giants last week.  That win created a lot of momentum for Jacksonville, especially since they will be playing at home once again this week.  The Jaguars’ defense has played significantly better at home this season.  Jacksonville is giving up 23.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on their home field.  Overall, Jacksonville is allowing 27.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The numbers clearly show a big difference, and Jacksonville will be facing a below average offense that is off a season-best performance.  The Jaguars’ defense has a solid situational edge, and since Houston has been an underdog in four of their six road games this season, we’ll take the points with Jacksonville in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Tampa Bay has played excellent football since their bye despite going just 1-5 SU.  The Buccaneers out-gained four of their six opponents while their defense allowed 22 points or less in five of those games.  Overall, Tampa Bay’s defense has actually played better than average this season.  The Bucs are giving up 5.7 yards per play against offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.  The defense is taking a step down in class against a weak Detroit offense that is only averaging 19.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Lions have put-up those terrible offensive numbers against defenses allowing 23.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.       

Detroit is off a 34-17 home win over Chicago on Thanksgiving Day.  But that win means absolutely nothing since it came against the lowly Bears who just got blown out at home on Thursday by the Cowboys.  The Lions were in a terrific scheduling spot for that game after back-to-back road losses in which their offense scored a total of 15 points.  Detroit’s best offense comes from their passing game, but Tampa Bay’s defense is built to stop the pass, and their secondary has been terrific recently.  The Bucs have held their last six opponents to 280 passing yards or less, and they’ve held their last four opponents to 212 passing yards or less.  Tampa Bay has ten losses on the season, but eight of those losses have come by 10 points or less.  We’ll take the points with Tampa Bay in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Pittsburgh comes into this game off a home loss to New Orleans last week.  We had a Best Bet winner on the Saints in that game as we felt it was a bad matchup for Pittsburgh’s defense.  That’s not the case in this game, as Cincinnati does not possess the type of potent offense that gives the Steelers’ defense trouble.  Pittsburgh has played better football in the second half of the season.  Prior to last week’s loss, the Steelers were 4-1 over their previous five games with their lone loss coming in a terrible spot against the Jets.  Pittsburgh’s momentum was halted as they went into last week’s game off their bye.  The Steelers are now in a much better situation to bounce back with a strong performance, especially since this is an important division game.  Pittsburgh’s offense has played above average football this season as they are averaging 26.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 24 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Cincinnati is off an impressive 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS road trip.  The Bengals played three consecutive games away from home, and since they had success, there’s a good shot they come into this game overconfident.  Cincinnati’s play has actually gotten worse despite the recent positive results, and they were underdogs in two of their last three games.  Overall, the Bengals’ offense has played below average football this season.  Cincinnati is only averaging 21.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense has actually played better on the road where they are holding opponents to just 21.5 points per game compared to their overall season average of 24.8 points per game.  This isn’t the best of situational spots for the Bengals, so we’ll take the points with Pittsburgh in this early game on Sunday.  

10* Play STEELERS (+).

Carolina was in a prime situational and scheduling spot for their game in Minnesota last week, and the Panthers failed to show up in a 31-13 loss.  That poor effort is an indication that Carolina has quit on the season; they’ve lost six consecutive games.  The Panthers’ losses have been ugly, especially on the road.  Carolina lost by 21 points at Green Bay, 24 points at Philadelphia, and 18 points at Minnesota.  Now they must play on the road for a second consecutive week, and do so against one of the best offenses in the league.  Carolina’s defense has been atrocious on the road all season as they are giving up 33.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Those terrible numbers have actually come against a slate of opposing offenses that are only averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.   

New Orleans came thru with a nice win for us last week, and we’ll come right back and play them again this week.  New Orleans is just 5-7 on the season, and they’ve lost their last three home games.  This is a huge game for the Saints, and we expect them to bring one of their best efforts of the season.  New Orleans is averaging 26.9 points per game on a strong 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that are only allowing 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints will face a Carolina defense that is giving up 11.4 points per game more than teams New Orleans has been facing.  New Orleans beat Carolina 28-10 earlier this season; the Saints put-up 375 yards of offense despite playing on the road just four days after beating the Packers on a Sunday night.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with New Orleans on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play SAINTS (-).

Wisconsin is 10-2 on the season, but the Badgers have played an extremely weak schedule.  Their toughest game of the season came in the opener when they lost 28-24 to LSU.  The Tigers are not an elite team by any means, so you could argue that Ohio State will be Wisconsin’s toughest opponent this season, even though the Buckeyes do not have their starting quarterback for this game.  Wisconsin does have a potent offense that averages 37.5 points per game on 7.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 27.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Wisconsin’s offensive strength is running the football as they average 334.2 yards on the ground per game.  The Badgers will have success against an Ohio State run defense that is not in good current form.  The Buckeyes have allowed 179 rushing yards or more in three of their last four games.  Ohio State’s defense has given up 24 points or more in four straight games, and in eight of their twelve games this season.   

Ohio State will play this game with backup quarterback Cardale Jones after J.T. Barrett broke his ankle last week.  Jones has some experience, and we do not expect much drop-off in the Ohio State offense.  Overall this season, the Buckeyes are averaging 44.1 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  They’ve put those strong numbers up against a good slate of defensive opponents that are only allowing 26.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Buckeyes will face a Wisconsin defense that has faced a slew of weak offenses that are only averaging 25.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  The Badgers’ defense also comes into this game in poor current form as they’ve allowed 24 points or more in three straight games.  We expect a high-scoring game between Wisconsin and Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship on Saturday night.   

10* Play OVER the total.

Louisiana Tech comes into this game with an 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS record.  Two of their four SU losses came at Oklahoma and at Auburn, games they expected to lose.  So we can make the argument that Louisiana Tech is actually 8-2 in games against comparable teams, and both of those losses only came by 3 point apiece.  The Bulldogs have an explosive offense that is averaging 38.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech is well-balanced as they are averaging 148 yards on the ground and 248 yards thru the air per game.  The Bulldogs will be the first potent offense that Marshall has faced all season, and considering how bad of a spot this is for Marshall, we expect the Louisiana Tech offense to score a lot of points in this game.     

Marshall comes in off a heartbreaking loss last week to Western Kentucky.  The Thundering Herd lost 67-66 in overtime, and it was also their first loss of the season.  That defeat most likely cost Marshall a New Year’s Day bowl game, so we expect the Thundering Herd to play with a hangover in this game.  Marshall trailed by 21 points before forcing overtime, then they led by 7 until Western Kentucky tied the game and won it on a 2-point conversion attempt.  The way they lost that game is extremely difficult to get over, and since Louisiana Tech has a high-scoring offense, this is a case of the worst opponent at the worst time for Marshall.  The Thundering Herd also have a potent offense that averages 46.7 points per game, but Louisiana Tech’s defense is holding opponents to 25.2 points per game on just 4.8 yards per play.  This is simply a terrible spot for Marshall, so we’ll take the points with Louisiana Tech in this early game on Saturday afternoon.     

9* Play LOUISIANA TECH (+).

Dallas and Chicago both played last Thursday, so this somewhat of a normal week for both teams.  The Cowboys’ offense was terrible last week as they scored just 10 points on their home field.  Dallas has a strong offense that is averaging 25.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  The Cowboys have a fantastic running game that is averaging 144.9 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.  The Cowboys’ offense will bounce back strong tonight, especially since they will be facing a poor Chicago defense.  The Bears are giving up 28.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that are only averaging 23.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  

Chicago is also off a terrible offensive game as they scored just 17 points on 269 yards of total offense.  The Bears will bounce back with a much better performance tonight, especially since their strength is throwing the football.  Chicago will face a weak Dallas secondary that is allowing an ugly 7.4 yards per pass attempt versus opponents that only average 6.9 yards per pass attempt.  Dallas has given up 536 passing yards to the Giants and Eagles over the last two weeks.  The Bears have a strong passing attack that will be able to rack up yards thru the air on a Dallas secondary that is in terrible current form.  Chicago has thrown for 250 yards or more seven times this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cowboys and Bears on Thursday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami comes into this game off a 39-36 loss at Denver last Sunday.  The Dolphins’ defense was gashed for 450 yards in that game, and it was easily their worst performance of the season.  The terrible defensive outing wasn’t much of a surprise since they were playing an elite offense in Denver.  However, the Dolphins are also dealing with a slew of injuries to their defense, and they have cluster injuries to their linebackers and secondary.  Miami’s defense is extremely vulnerable right now, and if the Jets’ offense is ever going to breakout, tonight is the game.  New York is reinserting Geno Smith at quarterback after their failed experiment with Mike Vick.  This is a huge game for Smith as he is basically playing for his career.  He gets a Miami defense missing a lot of players, so Smith gets the perfect opponent to play against.  The Jets’ offense was absolutely terrible last Monday night when they scored just 3 points on the Bills.  Prior to that game, New York had scored 20 points or more in three of their previous four games, so they are more than capable of scoring points in this game.  

New York’s defense is a mess, so Miami’s offense will also score their share of points in this game.  The Dolphins have scored 22 points or more in seven of their last eight games, so they are in good offensive form.  Overall, the Dolphins are averaging 25.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New York’s defense is giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Jets have allowed 24 points or more in nine of their last ten games, including four of their last five home games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Dolphins and Jets on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Denver does not come into this game in the best of current form.  The Broncos have alternated wins and losses over their last five games while going just 1-3 ATS over their last four games.  Denver lost 22-7 to St. Louis, and that’s simply an ugly loss not matter what excuses you can make for the Broncos.  Denver was also fortunate to win at home last week over the Dolphins after Miami built a 28-17 lead going into the fourth quarter.  There’s something amiss right now with the Broncos, and that has been clearly evident over their last few games.  Things will not get easier tonight in Kansas City against a team that knows them well and plays a stye of football that beats the Broncos.  The Denver defense has been one of the best in the NFL, but their recent drop in play has changed their numbers drastically.  The Broncos are now allowing 25 points per game on the road against offenses that are averaging 22.9 points per game.

Kansas City has a huge scheduling advantage for this game.  The Chiefs last played on a Thursday night, so they’ve had a mini bye of sorts.  Head coach Andy Reid is one of the best at getting his team ready off a break, and since the Chiefs are coming in off an embarrassing loss in Oakland, we expect a strong bounce back performance.  Kansas City’s offense has been fantastic at home this season where they are averaging 26.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Chiefs have a terrific running game that is gaining 135.8 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush, and their ability to run the ball and control the clock is the exact formula to beat Denver.  The Broncos have been gouged on the ground in their last two games, allowing 228 rushing yards to the Rams and Dolphins.  This is a good spot for Kansas City, especially since they are catching a vulnerable Denver team at the perfect time.  We’ll back the Chiefs in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play CHIEFS (+).

Carolina has been a huge disappointment this year after making the playoffs last season.  The Panthers come into this game in Minnesota with a poor 3-7-1 record.  However, the Panthers are fresh off their bye, and this is the game they will bring their best effort.  Carolina has played a brutal schedule so far this season with games against the Lions, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Packers, Seahawks, and Eagles.  All seven of those teams will likely be in the playoffs this season, so there’s reason to excuse Carolina’s poor record.  The Panthers’ defense has poor seasonal numbers, but again, they’ve played all of the top-scoring offenses in the NFL.  Carolina’s defense will get a much needed class relief in this game against a Minnesota offense that is only averaging 18.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.      

Minnesota is off a close 24-21 home loss to the Packers last Sunday.  The Vikings were in a terrific scheduling spot for that game as they were catching Green Bay off a string of outstanding performances.  The Vikings couldn’t pull out the win, and that will have them playing with a hangover in this game.  Minnesota’s defense is allowing 25 points per game at home this season, so the Panthers’ offense will be able to move the ball with consistency.  Carolina’s offense scored 35 points on Minnesota last season as quarterback Cam Newton completed 20 of his 26 passes for 242 yards with 3 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.  Minnesota has been underdogs in ten of their eleven games this season, and in the one game they were favored, they lost 17-3 at home to the Lions.  We’ll take the points with Carolina in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PANTHERS (+).

New Orleans comes into this game off three consecutive home losses, and not many will want to back the Saints in this game.  However, this is a very good spot to take New Orleans, especially since the pointspread is inflated a couple of points because of the recent results.  The Saints still possess one of the best offenses in the NFL despite their poor 4-7 record.  New Orleans is averaging 26.2 points per game on a strong 6.3 yards per play.  The Saints have racked up 396 yards of total offense in nine of their eleven games this season; New Orleans had 525 total yards in Monday night’s loss to the Ravens.  New Orleans will be facing a poor Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 23.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Steelers’ defense has been even worse at home where they are giving up 26.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  

Pittsburgh is fresh off their bye, but the week off did not come at the best time.  The Steelers were in good form as they had won four of their five games going into the week of rest.  Pittsburgh’s momentum has been interrupted, and that’s not a good thing, especially when facing a potent offense like the Saints.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been extremely vulnerable against the pass this season; the Steelers are allowing opponents to throw for 242.4 yards per games on 7.4 yards per pass attempt.  That defensive weakness will face the offensive strength of the Saints as they throw for 308.8 yards per game on 7.4 yards per pass attempt.  New Orleans is a strong 5-2 ATS as a road underdog going back to last season based on the posted spread for this game, including 1-0 this season when they lost 24-23 at Detroit.  We’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play SAINTS (+).

Cincinnati is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Tampa Bay.  The Bengals will be playing their third straight road game after winning back-to-back games SU as underdogs.  Cincinnati is now laying more than a field goal into an out of conference team, their second straight NFC opponent.  The Bengals will return home after this game to host divisional opponent Pittsburgh, and then they’ll hit the road once again to face another divisional opponent, the Cleveland Browns.  Cincinnati’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 22.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play against opponents who allow 23.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Bengals’ offense has been even worse on the road where they are only averaging 17.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.         

Tampa Bay is in a good bounce back spot for this game against Cincinnati.  The Buccaneers come in off a misleading 21-13 loss in Chicago; Tampa Bay out-yarded the Bears 367-204 in that game.  Since their bye, the Buccaneers have played good football despite going just 1-4 SU.  Tampa Bay out-gained four of those five opponents while their defense allowed 22 points or less in four of those games.  Overall, Tampa Bay’s defense has actually played better than average this season.  The Bucs are giving up 5.7 yards per play against offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.  The defense is taking a step down in class against the weak road offense of the Bengals as mentioned above.  This is simply a bad spot for Cincinnati, so we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

San Diego has played good football since coming off their bye.  The Chargers have won back-to-back games since their week off; they lost three straight games going into their bye.  San Diego has thoroughly out-played their last two opponents while out-gaining them by a combined 710-550 and out-scoring them 40-30.  San Diego’s offense has played above average football this season despite dealing with multiple injuries to their running backs.  Overall, the Chargers are averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.4 yards per play.  San Diego’s offense will be facing a Baltimore defense that is giving up 5.8 yards per play.  The Ravens gave up 525 yards of total offense on a whopping 8.0 yards per play to the Saints last week. 

Baltimore is off a big 34-27 win in New Orleans on Monday night.  The Ravens will be hard-pressed to match that performance, especially on a short week.  Baltimore’s offense has actually underperformed at home this season.  The Ravens are averaging 26 points per game on 5.7 yards per play; overall they average 26.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  San Diego’s defense has been pretty good all season as they are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  This isn’t the best of scheduling spots for the Ravens after going into last week’s primetime game in New Orleans off their bye and winning outright as underdogs.  We’ll take the points with San Diego in this early game on Sunday.  

9* Play CHARGERS (+).

Pittsburgh opened the season at 3-0, but the Panthers have gone just 2-6 since.  Even worse is the fact that six of those eight games were played on Pittsburgh’s home field.  The Panthers did not play a tough slate of opponents at all as the best team they faced during that span was Georgia Tech, a game they lost 56-28.  Pittsburgh’s offense has decent seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a group of defenses that are allowing 28 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Panthers will face a Miami defense that is allowing just 20.2 points per game on 4.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Panthers are obviously taking a huge step-up in defensive class with the Hurricanes allowing 7.8 points per game and 1.5 yards per play less than the opponents Pittsburgh has faced this season.

Miami comes into this game with just a 6-5 record, but the Hurricanes are significantly better than that record indicates.  Four of their five losses this season have come against Louisville, Nebraska, Georgia Tech, and Florida State who are a combined 37-8 on the season.  Miami has a terrific offense that is averaging 30.5 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense has played below average football as they are giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that are only averaging 24.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Miami’s offense only scored 13 points last week in a loss at Virginia, but that was a huge flat spot after blowing a 23-7 lead over Florida State the week before.  Miami will bounce back with a big effort in their final home game of the season, so we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes as they win this game in blowout fashion on Saturday night. 

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Michigan State comes into this game with a solid 9-2 SU and ATS record.  The Spartans lost to Ohio State three weeks ago, but since that loss, they’ve steamrolled their last two opponents by a combined score of 82-18.  However, they played two overmatched teams that have terrible defenses.  Michigan State will finally play a competent opponent that also has a fantastic defense.  According to my strength of schedule ratings, the Spartans have played a very weak schedule.  The Spartans’ offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 30.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play as a group this season.  Michigan State is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Penn State in this game.  In fact, the Spartans will face a Nittany Lions’ defense that is allowing 14.2 points per game and 1.8 yards per play less per game than the opponents Michigan State has faced this season.

Penn State opened the season at 4-0, but they’ve gone just 2-5 since.  However, they’ve been competitive as four of those five losses have come by 7 points or less.  Penn State has played outstanding defense this season.  The Nittany Lions are giving up just 16.2 points per game on 4.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 26.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Penn State’s run defense has been tremendous as they give up just 81.9 yards per game on a minuscule 2.5 yards per rush.  Michigan State’s defense has been much worse on the road where they are giving up 27.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play compared to just 20.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play overall this season.  Penn State is set for a big effort in their final home game of the season, so we’ll take the big points with the Nittany Lions in this game on Saturday afternoon.      

9* Play PENN STATE (+).

Notre Dame comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Irish are just 1-4 SU and ATS over their last five games as their defense has completely fallen apart.  Since their 31-27 loss at Florida State, the Irish defense has given up 39, 55, 43, and 31 points.  Notre Dame allowed a total of 1,822 yards of offense in those games to non-explosive teams like Northwestern, Navy, and Louisville.  Notre Dame’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Irish will face a USC defense that is only allowing 5.0 yards per play on their home field this season.  Notre Dame has played in seven consecutive emotional games, including last week’s 31-28 home loss to Louisville after missing a chip shot field goal that would have sent the game to overtime.  The Irish now take to the road to face a hungry team off a loss and looking for revenge.

USC was embarrassed last week by UCLA in a 38-20 loss.  The Trojans played one of their worst games of the season, especially on offense.  The Trojans had just 276 yards of total offense in that game despite averaging 33.8 points per game on 441.5 yards per game while gaining 5.9 yards per play this season.  USC’s offense will bounce back with a much better performance in this game, especially since they are averaging 43 points per game on 6.3 yards per play at home this season.  Notre Dame’s defense has been terrible on the road all season as they are giving up 30.8 points per game away from home.  The Trojans are also looking to break their 2-game losing streak to the Irish; USC had won 7 of the prior 8 meetings against Notre Dame.  The Trojans played a home game off a road loss earlier this season, and they won that game 35-10.  We expect a similar result here, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Saturday afternoon.    

9* Play USC (-).

Stanford has been up and down all season.  The Cardinal come into this game with just a 6-5 record, including a 2-3 mark on the road.  Stanford hasn’t won back-to-back games since September; they beat California 38-17 last week despite giving up 410 yards of total offense.  Stanford’s defense has been their calling card this season, but they’ve been leaky as of late.  The Cardinal have allowed 82 points and 1,182 yards over their last three games on an average of 5.4 yards per play.  Stanford’s offense has been below average this season while scoring just 25.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Those poor numbers have come against defenses allowing an average of 31.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Stanford’s offense has been even worse on the road where they are only averaging 19.6 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.          

UCLA is finally playing up to their preseason expectations.  The Bruins are 9-2 overall, winning five consecutive games after losing back-to-back games to open October.  UCLA is off a big 38-20 win over USC last week, and we expect them to carry momentum into this game.  The Bruins have a fantastic offense that is averaging 35 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses giving up 26.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  UCLA has put-up 406 yards of offense or more in ten of their eleven games this season.  The Bruins are well-balanced as they run for 196 yards and throw for 299 yards per game.  UCLA has also played strong defense at home this season, holding their opponents to just 4.9 yards per play.  The Bruins will contain the weak Stanford offense in this game, especially since the Cardinal will be without their top receiver, Ty Montgomery, who is out with a shoulder injury.  Stanford is clearly down this season, and this is UCLA’s best chance to beat the Cardinal for the first time in six years.  We’ll lay the points with the Bruins in this game on Friday afternoon.      

10* Play UCLA (-).

Arizona State and Arizona is a heated rivalry game that has been dominated by the Sun Devils in recent years.  Arizona State has won this game two straight years, but we expect that mini streak to end this afternoon.  The Sun Devils are 9-2 on the season, and they’ve gone 2-1 in their last three games despite getting out-yarded by their opponents in all three games.  Arizona State has allowed 31, 35, and 31 points in their last three games while giving up 487, 498, and 622 yards of offense in those games.  The Sun Devils had held six of their previous eight opponents to 24 points or less, so it’s clear Arizona State’s play has declined despite winning.  Overall, Arizona State’s defense is allowing 5.7 yards per play this season versus offenses that are also averaging 5.7 yards per play.  The Sun Devils are vulnerable on the ground; they’ve allowed 203 rushing yards or more in five games this season.  Arizona averages 195.7 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush, so the Sun Devils’ defense will be gouged on the ground in this game.    

Arizona also comes into this game with a 9-2 record.  The Wildcats have a strong offense that is averaging 36.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Arizona has terrific balance on offense as they also pass for 299 yards per game.  The Wildcats are also in much better defensive form than the Sun Devils.  Arizona has held their last four opponents to 26 points or less, including two opponents to 17 points or less.  They’ve limited those opponents to just 5.2 yards per play.  Arizona has taken good care of the ball all season as they have 1 turnover or less in seven of their eleven games, and 2 turnovers or less in ten of their eleven games this season.  Arizona QB Anu Solomon re-injured his ankle in last week’s 42-10 win at Utah, and he’s questionable to play here.  But even if he doesn’t, Jesse Scroggins is a senior who is plenty capable of running the Arizona offense with efficiency.  Arizona is in a good spot to beat their rival, and since they are playing the better football right now, we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Friday afternoon.     

9* Play ARIZONA (-).