NFL Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
11-18-18 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A pair of smoking teams here. Cincinnati the most recent victim of that Saints machine, while Bengals now have the dubious distinction of being the only team to give up 500+ yards in 3 straight games. And that offense is not much better, with Andy going 12-for-20 for just 153 yards & 2 picks. After that nice start, he has settled in with an 18/10 TD/INT ratio (bad). Three straight losses for Baltimore, as Ravens were dominated at home vs the Steelers, in all facets, before their bye, giving up a 7-minute TD drive, to start the 2nd half, managing just 1 TD for the afternoon. But that Raven "D" ranks as #1 in the NFL |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers -3 | 27-23 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems a lifetime ago, when these 2 went at in the playoffs, on a consistent basis. Did they ever play some classic January games. Five straight losses for the Giants & 4-21 in their last 25 games, giving up 7 sacks & coughing up 2 more turn overs vs the 'Skins before their bye. Lone bright spot: Beckham with 7 grabs for 125 yards. What a debut for Niners' Mullins: 262 passing yards & 3 TDs, with his 151.9 passer rating highest for a QB in his debut, since the 1970 merger. Throw in 8 sacks vs the hapless Raiders, & Mostert: 12.3 yards per rush. Giants are 0-9 ATS as Monday non-division dogs. |
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11-11-18 | Chargers -10 v. Raiders | 20-6 | Win | 103 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's face it, the Raiders are brutal, with their only win this season coming in host role vs the Browns. But they needed OT, along with a very questionable spot at the end of that one. Four straight losses, with an 85-point deficit. This team can't get to Vegas quick enough. Balanced offense for Bolts in Seattle last week: 113 rushing yards from Gordon (7.1 yards per rush); 124 receiving yards from Allen; & another 2 TDs from Old Man Rivers ,as he completed his 200th straight start, joining the Manning brothers, & of course, Brett Favre. Visitor is now 32-11 ATS in Charger games. |
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11-11-18 | Redskins v. Bucs UNDER 51 | 16-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Under is 7-2 in Redskins last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points, 20-6 in Redskins last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 7-2 in Redskins last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points, and 9-3 in Redskins last 12 games overall. While the Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 10-4 in Buccaneers last 14 home games. |
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11-11-18 | Cardinals v. Chiefs UNDER 50 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Under is 23-7-1 in Chiefs last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 47-20-1 in Chiefs last 68 home games, and 11-5-2 in Chiefs last 18 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. While the Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games on grass. |
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11-11-18 | Falcons -5.5 v. Browns | 16-28 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Will things ever turn around for this tortured fan base? Mayfield last week: 29-of-42 for 297 yards (2/1, and now 10/7 for the season). Cleveland "D" gave up TDs on the Chiefs' first 3 possessions. So its quick start is levelling off, with 4 straight losses, including 38-14, 33-18, & 37-21 rompers. Falcons dominated from the opening whistle in their win over the Redskins, looking like the team that steamrolled its way to the Super Bowl 2 years ago. Ryan: 350 passing yards & 4 TDs. Now at 2,685 yards & 19/3. And first time with over 100 rushing yards since Week 2. Falcons have always been streaky. Again. |
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11-11-18 | Saints -5 v. Bengals | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Great AFC/NFC match up here. Seven straight wins for the Saints (6 straight covers), as Brees just keeps going on-&-on. Four more TDs (346 passing yards) in that win over previously unbeaten Rams. Now at an incredible 18/1, & 76.3%. Three more TDs for Kamara, & Thomas with 211 yards receiving (new Saints record). Cincinnati came from a 45-10 loss vs the indomitable Chiefs, to 37-34 win over the Bucs, nearly blowing all of a 27-6 lead. Mixon: 123 yards in that one, with Dalton solid 21-of-34 for 280 yards & no picks (2 TDs). Two division on deck, & Cincinnati "D": 31+ points 5-of-6. Saints call. |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys -4 | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams in off their bye week. I'm still scratching my head over that "snap infraction" committed by the 'Boys at the end of that 'Skins game that resulted in the game-tying FG hitting the left upright. Never seen it before. Zeke: only 34 rushing yards on 15 carries that one, while Dak was 22-of-35 for 273 yards, with 1 throwing, & 1 rushing TD. Titans missed on 2-pt try in final 0:31 of 20-19 loss to Chargers, in London, 2 weeks ago. Mariota was 24-of-32 for 237 yards & a pick (first red zone pick of his career). Home team is 16-5-1 ATS in Titan games, while the favorite is 12-4-1 ATS in Cowboy tilts. Sways it to 'Boys. |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints +2.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The QBs in this one are playing at an elite level, with the timeless Brees seeming to get better by the week (18-of-23 in last week's 30-20 win at Minnesota, turning a 13-7 deficit into a 30-13 lead. Drew is now at 14 touchdowns with only 1 interception for the season. Yes, that's right, an actual interception last week. Rams continue to impress, with their best start since 1969. Withstood early & late punches from the Packers, & winning that game, with 3 more Goff TDs (17 touchdowns with 5 interceptions on the year). Aaron Donald: 6 sacks L2 weeks. Gurley 114 rushing yards, etc. If any team can throw in a wrench, it's New Orleans. |
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11-04-18 | Texans +1 v. Broncos | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Pick-em, and is now Denver minus 1. Well, it's taken me long enough to finally get on this smoking Texan squad, which has won 5 straight on the field (3-1-1 ATS). A year ago, they were weekly fixtures on my picks, as they were "money" under the leadership of the indomitable Watson, with Houston averaging 39 points per game in his last 5 starts, until a torn ACL (in practice) ended his season, as well as my "meal ticket". A week ago, he completed 5 TD passes, (13, 2, 73, 49, & 2 yards) in 42-23 win over Miami, with balanced 188 rushing yards & 239 passing yards. Broncos up-&-down, but wrong team is favored in this. |
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11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With the potent Chiefs their only real competition in their division, the Chargers have taken a step forward, their only losses coming to Chiefs and those muscular Rams. Respect Seattle’s management, Wilson, and the rest of the ‘Hawks’ roster, and not surprised home side opened marginal chalk here. However, this looms a reasonable schedule spot for the Chargers off their bye, so expect a peak effort, especially given the broad expectation that RB Melvin Gordon’s hamstring will be good to go, here. Rivers, again-&-again. He was 19-of-26 for 306 yards, & 2 TDs (75-yards on the first play from scrimmage, with a 55-yarder to follow). |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs -8 v. Browns | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 43 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last season, the Browns’ offense gained 4.9 yards per play, one of the lowest in the NFL. This season, the Browns offense is gaining 4.9 yards per play. The main difference in what has made them more competitive is that the 4.9 yards per play is coming with fewer turnovers. But with rookie Baker Mayfield quarterbacking, the turnovers will probably resume coming again. Against a team like the Chiefs, who can score against anybody, they’re liable to come in bunches as the Browns struggle to keep up with offensive personnel not cut out to do it. They were in a shootout at Oakland, and lost. Oakland is a terrible team; the Chiefs are 7-1. |
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10-28-18 | Saints -1 v. Vikings | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the one the Saints have been waiting for all year long. Who will ever forget that last-second "Hail Mary" from Keenum to Diggs, to steal the Divisional game here last year. Brees, as usual, was unstoppable in that 2nd half in Baltimore last week. Another 212 passing yards & 2 touchdowns with 0 interceptions, which puts him at 13 TD passes, with no interceptions. Now he's at 500 TD passes, joining Brady from last week, along with Manning & Favre. Five straight wins for New Orleans. But Minnesota is on a 3-game winning streak, as well, with Cousins now 14 touchdowns with 3 interceptions for the season. All the ingredients, so a revenge call. |
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10-28-18 | 49ers -1 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Does this team miss Garoppolo, or what? Beathard: 7 interceptions & 3 lost fumbles in 4 starts. Thus, the Niners have committed 14 straight turn overs since their last takeaway on Sept 30 against the Chargers. So now minus 15 in that column. How bad are the Cards? They looked horrible vs a Bronco team that had lost 4 straight heading into the desert. Rosen: 5 turnovers (3 picks, 2 fumbles). Just 69 rushing yards vs Denver, which was mauled for 593 RYs in their two previous gms. San Fran is 4-0 ATS off the Rams, & Shanahan 7-1 ATS away vs foe off SU loss. Arizona: 105-47 point deficit at home. |
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10-28-18 | Broncos v. Chiefs -9.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units About time that we jumped on this goose, & its weekly golden egg laying. Hard to believe that these bitter division rivals will finish their season series, before either of them hit their bye week, but that's the NFL. These 2 played a classic MNF last month. Bronco "D" looked more like itself, in Thursday rout of the Cards, featuring 5 forced turn overs, 2 of which were of the "pick-6" variety, along with 6 sacks of hapless Arizona. Chiefs keep on doing it: 45-10 win over Cincinnati, 33 first downs, 198 rushing yards, 353 passing yards. Mahomes: another 358 passing yards & 4 touchdowns with 1 interception (now 2,223 yards & 22 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions). Get on board now. |
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10-28-18 | Ravens -2.5 v. Panthers | 21-36 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justin Tucker's first extra point miss of his career (out of 222 attempts) did the Ravens (& us) in last week against the Saints. Second straight NFC South match up for Baltimore, it's the 4th road game in 5 weeks for the Ravens, who covered 2 of the first 3 by 15 & 18½ points. And that Baltimore "D" has held 5-of-7 opponents to 14 points, or less. Note that Lamar Jackson got his first NFL TD last week. Biggest comeback in Panther history last week, when they knocked off the Champs on the road. Trailed 17-0; won 21-17, with Cam 25-of-39 for 269 yards. And that "D" sacked Wentz 4 times. Ravens. |
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Overseas again, guvnah. London has to be thrilled to have the defending Super Bowl Champs playing in Wembley Stadium this season. However, the Eagles looked like anything but, after blowing a 17-point 4th quarter home lead to the Panthers last week. Wentz was solid throughout, and that offense had a 10-minute time of possession advantage for Carolina. A crushing home loss. The demise of the Jaguars makes little sense. Bortles & that Jacksonville offense look completely lost out there. Check Jags last 3 games: 2 TD passes, & 8 turn overs. Not a single 1st half point. |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons UNDER 53 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eli Manning, an offensive line not up to the task of anything resembling serious divisional contention, and another head coach (Pat Shurmer) who’s too conservative, even given the division’s weakened state. The Atlanta stop unit isn’t up to postseason standards, and you’re looking to defend a chunky lay number, so Manning shouldn’t be wholly frustrated – but the Giant body language displayed by too many of the guilty was poisonous in the Thursday-nighter at Philadelphia, and the crew doesn’t look enthusiastic about going down with this ship. |
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10-21-18 | Rams -9 v. 49ers | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Year Battle of two young mastermind coaches in Shanahan and McVay. McVay definitely has the edge with a healthy QB. Hopefully, Garoppolo gets back to 100% next year, because this could be the rivalry that it was back in the '80s & '90s. Third straight road game for the Rams, having slipped by the Seahawks & Broncos (33-31 & 23-20). No question that L.A. is the NFL's premier ball-mover, behind Goff (1,928 passing yards) & Gurley (career-high 208 rushing yards last week), but Rams allowing 27.3 ppg in their last 3 outings. Niner "D" is just about at that level, so we'll take the better "O" here. |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | 24-23 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Great AFC-NFC matchup here. These 2 always seem to end up in the postseason. The 39-year old Brees just continues to amaze. The new all-time passing yardage leader was 26-of-29 for 363 yards & 3 touchdowns vs Washington. Now 11 TD tosses, & zero picks, as Saints have put 29.4 points per game on the board in their last 20 games. We remember him flinging it all over the yard at Purdue, under Tiller, & he just keeps on producing. But in this one, he had better be at his best, as the Ravens have held 5-of-6 teams to 14 points or less, & in off team-record 11 sacks in shutout win over Tenn. |
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10-21-18 | Texans v. Jaguars -4 | 20-7 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though the Texans got off to a slow start, this one could end up being huge come week 17. Marrone has the Jags playing the type of football that can win in January, no matter the venue, or the opponent (well, maybe KC). Jacksonville has dropped 2 straight, by combined score of 70-21. Only 10 first downs, with a 205-65 rushing yard deficit at Dallas last week, resulting in a 40-7 embarrassment. But Jags won 45-7 here last year, & Texans are a basket case, despite the return of Watson, who was sacked 7 times, & hit 12 more times in narrow escape vs Buffalo ("pick-6" in final 1:23). Jag bounce backer. |
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10-21-18 | Panthers +5.5 v. Eagles | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Potential playoff preview? Cam & Carson are certainly two of the most exciting to play the quarterback position in this star-studded league. Wentz threw a season-high 3 touchdown passes (26-of-36 for 278 yds & no interceptions) beating the Giants (1-5) for the 4th straight time, & 7th in 8 games. Eagles sacked Eli 4 times, & hit him 13 other times. But the dog is 11-3 ATS in Philly games, while the chalk is 10-5 ATS in Panther tilts (0-2 LA). This should be one of the better games of the season. |
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10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | 33-31 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Looks like nothing but injuries can stop this machine. Another 5 TDs and 465 passing yards (both career highs) for Goff in putting up 38 points vs that Viking defense. He was 26-of-33 with a perfect 158.6 passer rating. And another 83 rushing yards from Gurley. For the Seahawks, it was hard to see Earl Thomas being carted off the field with that leg injury in the desert last week. Much has been written lately, about the demise of this once mighty Seahawk outfit. Seattle is 3-15 ATS in October off a SU division win |
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10-07-18 | Vikings +3 v. Eagles | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rematch of last year's NFC Title game in which the Eagles completely manhandled the Vikings. Would Minnesota have won with Cousins under center? Nope. The first half has killed the Vikings the past 2 weeks: 28 points given up to the Rams, after the Bills scored 27 on them. Kirk: 422 passing yards & 3 TDs in loss to L.A. He now has 10 touchdowns with 2 interceptions, but has been sacked 13 times. Brutal loss for Philly in Tennessee, despite 348 Wentz passing yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Eagles are 7-2 ATS vs Minnesota, but note that Zimmer is a splendid 25-9 ATS with revenge. |
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10-07-18 | Raiders +6 v. Chargers | 10-26 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Raiders relentless down the stretch in that OT win over Cleveland. In spite of his gaudy numbers vs the Browns (437 passing yards, 4 TDs), Derek Carr has thrown seven picks already this year, the most in the NFL. Beast mode was his normal dominant self in the 4th quarter and OT: 20 carries for 130 yards, while Cook & Cooper were quite a receiving duo (110 & 128 yards, respectively). Second of back-to-back home games vs Bay Area squads for Bolts. Rivers: 3 more TDs (11/2 this year). I'll take the 6 points |
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10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers -6 | 31-33 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A classic QB duel with Manning & Cam. Talk about different ways of getting the job done. One has a league MVP, while the other has two Super Bowl MVPs. Giants again struggling. Only 299 yards vs the Saints, a an early 7-0 lead turned into 19-7 deficit entering the 4th quarter: 33-18 final. NY has now been held under 18 points in 11 of its last 14 games. And try a current 4-16 SU run. Panthers in off a bye. Four TDs for Cam in that impressive win over the dangerous Bengals. McCaffrey racked up a career-high 184 rushing yards, while that defense picked Dalton 4 times. It all continues. |
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10-07-18 | Falcons +3.5 v. Steelers | 17-41 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Would you believe that the Steelers are on an 0-6-1 spread run at home? Seems impossible, but the Ravens just had their way vs Pittsburgh, as the Steelers managed a mere 17 rushing yards with a 451-283 total yard deficit. Sixteen years ago, these 2 played to a 34-34 tie in this stadium. QBs in that one: Michael Vick & Tommy Maddox. Another gut-wrenching home loss last week for the Falcons. That's 3 straight weeks, with at least 30 points for Atlanta, but just 1 win. Matt last week: 419 yards & 3 TDs. The worm has to turn. Mild upset. |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Absolutely hate going against the Monday Night home division dog, as that play was once the best setup in the league. Not so, anymore, but still a shot. One of the greatest moments in the history of MNF took place here in 1994, when Montana stuck a dagger in Elway's and the Bronco's with that last second drive. Chiefs' Mahomes has 13 TD's and nary a pick so far. Penalties killed the Broncos in Baltimore last week (12 for 10 yards). Another costly Red Zone pick from Keenum. As I said, bucking the home division dog on Monday is a tough one, but until the Chiefs show a crack, I am staying with them. |
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09-30-18 | Browns +3 v. Raiders | 42-45 | Push | 0 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Must consider to what degree we might be willing to lay anything with an inconsistent Derek Carr, dubious ground support, a shaky defense, and a coach who seems to think he’s more important than the roster. The market on this game indicates that Cleveland boasts the better talent. The injury to Tyrod Taylor has force-fed QB Baker Mayfield into the captain’s chair. You have to grant Carr the experience edge at quarterback, but Oakland’s blown three fourth quarter leads already, this season. The Raiders are 2-9 ATS before playing the Chargers. |
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09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys -2.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Detroit defense’s knowledge of what was coming at them when New England had the ball was a big edge, and the Patriots had the ball for only 48 snaps. This kind of stuff works about one time a season for a team playing out of character. The Lions won’t run it as well vs. the Cowboys’ defense, and Matt Stafford’s downfield passes are a big risk against Dallas’ Tampa-2 defense. Sacks and interceptions loom large. |
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09-30-18 | Texans +1 v. Colts | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 0-3 Texans have to be the most disappointing NFL team thus far, especially with the return of Watson, who guided them to a 6-2 SU and ATS start last year. He threw for 385 yards, with 2 touchdowns and a pick last week, but couldn't overcome a second quarter 20-3 deficit. One bright spot was Watt with 3 sacks and a forced fumble. Colt defense looked good, sacking Wentz 5 times in his return. Houston however is 7-1 ATS as a September underdog off a pair of losses. |
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09-30-18 | Bills +9.5 v. Packers | 0-22 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units How about Josh Allen, getting his first career win, on the road vs Minnesota, no less. Second of 2 brutal road games for the Bills, who came from a combined point deficit of 78-23, to not only snap that dubious start, but a 27-6 win (37.5 point cover). Allen first Bill rookie to run and pass for at least one score each in his first career road start. Clearly evident that Rodgers' left knee isn't close to healthy Two touchdown tosses last week, but he could barely move. The Bills are 6-2 ATS versus the Packers, who are on a 0-6 ATS run. |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs +1 | 30-27 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Steelers are a disaster. Simply too much inner turmoil with this whole Le'Veon Bell situation. Big Ben threw 60 passes vs the Chiefs last week, for 452 yards & 4 TDs (3 passing), but to no avail. Again: Jameis who? Fitz"Magic" is no fluke: 27-of-32 passes for 402 yards & 4 TDs. That's 2 straight weeks going over 400 yards, with two 75-yd TD throws. Pitt returns to the site of its 6th Super Bowl victory. Bucs are on a 5-0 ATS run, off a 3-11-1 slide. Pitt is 1-7-1 ATS lately, & 2-9 ATS as a favorite of |
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09-23-18 | Patriots -6.5 v. Lions | 10-26 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Guess Brady is human after all, losing to the Jags for the first time in his career, after winning the first 8 in that series, although he was a decent 24-of-35 for 235 yards & 2 TDs (no picks, of course). Didn't take long for the NFL to schedule Patricia against his former squad. The Lions almost pulled off an amazing comeback at San Francisco, with 2 Stafford TD passes in final 8:36, only to lose 30-27. He had 347 passing yards & 3/0 in the process. The Lions are on an 0-8 ATS run at home between a pair of road games. |
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09-23-18 | Bears -5.5 v. Cardinals | 16-14 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals didn't cross midfield until the final minute in their 34-0 loss to the Rams, managing only 5 FDs, in that humiliating display. Bradford: 17-of-27 for 90 yards. And it only gets worse for the Cardinals, as legend Fitzgerald left the game with a hamstring injury. "They are who we thought they are, & we let 'em off the hook!". Those famous words were uttered by the late Dennis Green 12 yrs ago, after a crushing 24-23 MNF loss to eventual NFC Champ Bears. Chicago a road chalk? You betcha. |
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -6 | 27-22 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants are in a Cowboy/Saint sandwich, while the Texans are in a division sandwich. Check NY with only 35 rushing yards last week (Barkley: 28 rushing yards, 2.5 yards per rush: Jim Brown, he isn't, yet). So a pair 15 & 13-point explosions for the Giants, topping 17 points in just 2 of their last 12 games. Texans' Watson last week: 310 passing yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. NY is on a 3-16 SU run, & Houston is 7-1 ATS as a September non-division home favorite. Continues for NY |
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09-23-18 | Bengals +3 v. Panthers | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bengals already have a pair of 34-23 wins to start the season. Dalton: 4 first half TD passes vs the Ravens, to put Cincinnati up 21 early in that one, with 3 of those to always impressive AJ Green in the 1st 17 minutes (a career high for him). Newton is missing his most trusted target in years past, injured tight end Greg Olsen, and lacks ground support. Bengal's Lewis is 18-3 ATS as a dog vs the NFC. In an upset. |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pack have to be relieved with that tie vs Minnesota, although Crosby's missed 52-yarder at the buzzer would have won it in regulation. They also have to be relieved to see Rodgers out there, even with that left knee brace (281 PYs, 1/0). Washington went from Week 1-best 182 RYs, to just 65 on 22 carries vs Indy, with Smith 33-of-46 for 292 yards (no TDs, no Ints). First time since 1967, that it wasn't a sellout in Washington. Green Bay is 8-2-1 ATS vs Redskins, but Gruden is 10-3 ATS if at .500+ off a non-division game. |
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09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys -3 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 32 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giant rookie QB Barkley last week: 18 carries for 106 yards, with Beckham 11 catches for 111 yards in his first game since last October. Eli: 23-of-37 for 224 yards, but no touchdowns & an interception. The Giants have been held below 18 points in 9 of their last 11 games, and carrying a 3-15 SU record. The Favorite is 9-2-1 ATS in Cowboy games, so bounce backer here. |
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09-16-18 | Raiders v. Broncos -6 | 19-20 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos field a top-notch defense and now employ a serviceable quarterback in Case Keenum instead of a cadaver. Denver is 10-0 SU, 6-2-2 ATS in its opening two games played at home during the first two weeks of the season. Opponents aren’t fully conditioned yet while playing in high altitude. It’s a difficult obstacle to overcome. Since 1989, the Broncos have gone a mind-boggling 32-3 in Week 1 and Week 2 home games. The spot is made worse for the Raiders traveling after playing Monday night. |
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins -5.5 | 21-9 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Luck made his first start in over 20 months, last week vs Cincy. Luckily, he'll make another one, surviving that vicious hit he took in 1st quarter that resulted in an ejection for Williams. Indy didn't score over the final 20 minutes vs Cincy. This is the first of 2 NFC East RGs for the Colts. The Redskins had first half TD drives of 80, 73, & 92 yds vs the Cards, as ageless Adrian Peterson ran for 96 yds & a score. Alex Smith: 21-of-30, no picks, & a pair of TD tosses. 'Skins are 6-1 ATS as favs vs AFC. |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in its home openers under Tomlin, winning by an average of 13 points. The Steelers have gone 3-0 SU and ATS versus Kansas City during the past two seasons with Bell rushing for 349 yards in the last two meetings. Patrick Mahomes can gun the ball. Concerns remain, though, about his accuracy and decision-making. Then there is a vulnerable KC defense likely to be missing Eric Berry again. |
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09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eagles pulled out the "Philly Special" again to keep a 3rd quarter drive alive in opener vs the Falcons. As far as the Bucs are concerned, Jameis who? Thirty-five year old Fitzpatrick: 417 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, with 2 scoring strikes of more than 50 yards in 48-40 win over the Saints. Tampa Bay scored on 6 of its first 7 possessions. But that only serves to alert the champs, no matter which QB. |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions -6.5 | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Traditionally the Lions start the season fast going 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS the past seven years in Week 1. Matthew Stafford provides the Lions a huge quarterback edge in experience and past production. Jets rookie Sam Darnold is all about potential at this stage. Josh McCown is 3-11 with 19 turnovers in his last 14 road starts. This is Matt Patricia ‘s first game as head coach. The former Patriots defensive coordinator knows the Jets having spent 14 years as an assistant coach in the AFC East. The Lions averaged 27 points at home last season, while the Jets surrendered an average of 26.5 points in their away games. The favorite is 8-1-2 ATS in Lion games, while the home team is 13-4-1 ATS in Jet games. |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers -7 | 23-24 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Before last few days, Packer QB Rodgers had the distinction of being the 3rd highest paid QB in his division. However, a new $134 million contract negates that fact. And it should, as he is the premier signal caller in the NFL. And he is a standout in this rivalry which belongs to the Pack, with current 15-5 ATS run vs the Bears, who have topped 17 pts in just 8 of their last 20 games. Nagy for Fox as HC of Chicago, which cannot but help. Bears are win less vs division rivals over the past 2 seasons. |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars -3 v. Giants | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 111 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Coughlin comes back to New York. He & Marrone have the Jags right where they want them, in a rebuild that has exceeded all expectations. After knocking off the Bills in the Wild Card, they shocked the NFL by going into Pittsburgh, & taking the Steelers in the Divisionals, before succumbing to the Pats, 24-20, in the AFC Title game, with a 374-344 yard edge. Visitor opened at 8-1 ATS in Jag games last year. Giants' prize rookie RB Barkley, is probable for this, although not 100% (ailing hamstring). |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 111 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Turnaround of Niner fortunes since the arrival of Garappolo has been special, winning & covering their last 5 games (+49 points ATS), directly on heels of 2-24 SU slide, & winding up with a combined 78-46 point edge in their final 2 games, vs the Jaguars & Rams, a couple of playoff squads. This one could easily have been slotted for Sunday Night Football, due to anticipation around Garappolo, & the Vikings' new "$84 Million Man", Kirk Cousins. Vikings are on a 10-2-1 ATS run (12-2 SU), holding 11-of-16 opponents below 18 points. San Francisco comes down to earth a bit in this. |
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09-09-18 | Bills v. Ravens -7.5 | 3-47 | Win | 102 | 49 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at minus 3, and is now minus 7.5. Nearly unprecedented NFL line move here, as the public may have finally realized that the Ravens have a score to settle here, losing out to the Bills for that final playoff spot last year. Buffalo is still seeking a game-changing QB, seemed hopeful, with their first-round drafting of Wyoming's Allen. But he has hardly impressed, serving to once again muddle that franchise position. Baltimore swept the preseason (only team to do it). A dedicated squad which has all the ingredients for another playoff run. Harbaugh, Flacco, & a Co. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles +4.5 v. Patriots | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Patriot Super Bowl wins have come by 3 pts, 3 pts, 3 pts, 5 pts, & 6 pts, with the latter 2 the result of unbelievable play calling by their opponents, in the dying seconds, the first when the Seahawks decided to throw into a crowd on 2nd-&-goal from the 1-foot line in the final half minute, eschewing Marshawn Lynch (pick), & the latter, in last year's blowing of a 28-12 lead in the 4th, by the Falcons, who opted for a pair of deep drop back passes on short yardage situations, after an incredible "game-winning" catch by Julio Jones. The Pats' 2 Super Bowl losses both came vs the Giants, & their brilliant defenses, along with stunning game-winning receptions. Before the loss of franchise QB Carson Wentz, these 2 seemed headed for this meeting. Well, it has unexpectedly come to pass, with Foles under center. Belichick has again built a squad with all the right pieces: Brady, Gronkowski, Amendola, etc. No question that the Patriots are the standard. Best QB & HC in history of the league. Year-after-year. But the Pats could be 7-0 in Super Bowl appearances, but just as easily could be 0-7. The underdog stands at 8-1-1 ATS in this year's NFL Playoffs. I'm calling for the upset. Eagle "D" is the edge |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly managed just one lone TD in their upset of the onrushing Falcons, with standing a last-second defeat, via a questionable incompletion on the game's final play. That one snapped a Philly 4-game playoff losing streak, also marking the Eagle's first postseason win, while scoring less than 16 pts. And Philadelphia is also 4-0 as a playoff home dog. Foles last week: 23-of-30, which is huge. The last 8 AFC/NFC title games have been won by the home team. Site cannot be overstated. Eagles! |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -7 | 20-24 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one marks their 7th straight AFC title game, & not only that, but New England has also won 7 straight home playoff games, with their last host slip up coming in the 2012 title loss to the eventual Super Bowl champ Ravens. Last week, they outscored the hopeful Titans, 35-7 after the first quarter (35 unanswered points). Tom: 35-of-53 for 337 yards, & 3/0 (TDs to INT ratio). By the way, that marked his 10th career postseason game with at least 3 TD tosses, passing Joe Montana for the most in NFL history. He wasn't sacked by the Titans, & rarely hurried, while the Pat "D" set a franchise record with 8 sacks of Tennessee QB Mariota. Have held 11 of their last 13 opponents under 18 points, while currently on a 9-1-1 ATS run. |
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01-14-18 | Saints +5 v. Vikings | 24-29 | Push | 0 | 29 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Like Minnesota, New Orleans also changed quite a bit after the season opener as former Vikings great Adrian Peterson was jettisoned to Arizona in favor of the two-pronged attack of Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara. The potent pair became the first running back duo in league history to gain more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage and helped New Orleans lead the NFL with 4.7 yards per carry and 23 rushing touchdowns. Kamara finished second among running backs in catches with 81 during the regular season, but had just one against the Panthers last weekend. Michael Thomas more than picked up the slack, however, reeling in eight of nine targets for 131 yards in his playoff debut. The Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games and 42-20-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The surprising Jaguars certainly didn't overly impress the folks, with their nail biting win over the Bills. Just 15 FDs, with a lowly 75 PYs from a suddenly unimpressive Bortles. Jags averaged 34.5 ppg 4 games previous to 10 & 10 points in their last 2 outings. Not the best of times to be taking on the steady "D" of the Steelers, although that unit has allowed 23.8 ppg in Pitt's last 6 games. Most notable sidebar here is the Steeler revenge factor, as the Jags picked off Ben 5 times in their first meeting (Oct 8). Obviously, that won't be repeated. Return of WR Brown is key (led NFL in receiving, despite missing 3 games). Pitt 2-5 ATS as chalk of 7+ points. Dog call. |
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01-13-18 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nine straight AFC East titles for the Patriots, who just continue along with their other worldly accomplishments. Brady at yet another outstanding 32/8 (4,577 yards, 66.3%) although he did toss a pick in each of 5 straight games down the stretch. But the Pats always have the answers. Note ranking 29th on "D", but holding 10 of last 12 foes under 18 points, & on an 8-1-1 ATS run. Titans pulled miraculous upset of the Chiefs, after trailing 21-3 at the half. But note that Mariota is just 15/16, while the host has covered to the tune of 10-2-1 in Titan games, including last week's shocker. Of course, the blowout is a distinct possibility, but the 2-TD spot is pushing it a bit |
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01-13-18 | Falcons -142 v. Eagles | 10-15 | Loss | -142 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the first time ever, a top-seed playoff team has been pegged as the underdog in its opening round. But, with the loss of the Eagles brilliant QB Wentz (33 TD passes; only 7 picks), it was expected, as Philly came from 30.3 ppg in its first 13 games, to just 15.7 ppg in its last 3, with Nick Foles once more the man. So, from a 10-1 start, to 3-2 windup. Quite a gift for the Falcons, who now have more than a legitimate shot at Super Bowl redemption. Check their 37:35-22:25 time edge in upset of the upstart Rams. Ryan not up to last year's standards, but note Philly allowing 7 TD passes in their last 4 games. |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | 26-31 | Loss | -112 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The only playoff game pitting arch-rivals from the same division, &, as you can see, the Saints have gotten the better of it, not just this season, but have covered 6 straight vs the Panthers. Note the fav covering 7 of Carolina's last 9 games, while the Saints are on a 7-2 ATS run as less than DD chalks. Cam is at just 22/16 this year, while Drew just keeps on doing it: 29/10 & another 4,332 passing yards. Lay the points. |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First playoff game for the Bills since the "Music City Miracle", when Buffalo was the victim of a controversial windup loss to the Titans on Jan 8, 2000. The Jags had a combined record of 22-74 from '11-'16, before HC Marrone's arrival, who had the same job with Bills in '13 & '14. First playoff game for Bortles (3,687 yards, 21/13), but Buffalo RB McCoy is limping (ankle). Seems the spread is just a tad too much |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta won six of its last eight, with the only two losses coming against division winners Minnesota and New Orleans, but Matt Ryan had only five touchdown passes versus four interceptions in the final six games. He still has one of the league's most dangerous targets in Julio Jones, who caught 88 passes and eclipsed 1,400 yards (1,444) for the fourth straight season. The Falcons also feature the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who rushed for a combined 1,493 yards and 12 touchdowns while adding 63 receptions and four scores. Atlanta surrendered 19.7 points per game and allowed only one 100-yard rusher. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | 22-21 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The streaky Chiefs are clicking at just the right time. The SU winner has covered all 16 of KC games: runs of 5-0, to 1-6, to 4-0. Their stat edges are hardly all that impressive, although Smith has become an study in efficiency (67.5 & 6/5), with Hunt leading the NFL in rushing. And note KC ranking 2nd in all-important TO ratio. The host has covered to the tune of 11-1-1 in Tennessee tilts, & with this the Titans' 1st playoff games in 9 years, accompanied by current 14-23-1 ATS run, it's the Chiefs. |
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12-31-17 | Saints -5 v. Bucs | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Saints have been brilliantly steady since their 0-2 start, averaging 28.6 ppg in their last 13 games. Brees is the fastest player to reach 70,000 career passing yards (248 games: Peyton did it in 258 games). New Orleans clinched a playoff spot with that win over Atlanta, which was its biggest win in 4 years, & will take their division with another here. No, it doesn't happen too often, but this one pits the best offense in the NFL (Saints), vs its worst defense (Bucs). Tampa's Winston threw for 367 yards & a TD vs the Panthers last week, but was sacked six times, & fumbled 3 times. Saints call. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +3 v. Titans | 10-15 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags have nailed down AFC South title, despite Bortles a horrid 3 interceptions, vs the Niners, one a pick-six. That after a 3-week run without a pick the best stretch of his career. However, he did throw for 382 yards & 2 TDs. And note Jacksonville allowing a TD in their first possessions of the game, for the 1st time this year. Check it out. Five losses for the Jags, with every one of their first 4 being followed by blowout wins: 44-7, 30-9, 27-0, & 30-10. Titans have a bit of a shot at a Wild Card insertion, with a win here, coupled with losses for both the Bills & Chargers. But won't take this. |
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12-31-17 | Bengals v. Ravens -9.5 | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither of these teams is dependable. Bengals made the Seahawk faithful ecstatic with their upset over the Lions, coming from 8 FDs in blowout loss to Minnesota, to a 28-15 FD edge vs Detroit. But can they do the same for the Bills this week? Ravens will clinch with a win here, which will represent their first sweep of Cincinnati since '12, the year that they won the Super Bowl. Have now won 5-of-6, after opening at 4-5. Flacco 29-of-38 vs Colts, & 7/1 over last 4 games. Even if Baltimore loses here, they'll get one of the two Wild Card spots, if either the Bills or Titans fall. Ravens in a rare rout |
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12-31-17 | Bears v. Vikings -11.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vikings have been "money", with yet another spread streak, covering 9 of their last 10 outings, doing it both offensively, behind the leadership of Keenum, who had thrown for 3,497 yards, 67%, with 22 TD tosses & just 7 picks, as well as defensively, with a "D" that has held 10-of-13 foes below 18 points. Left a frigid Lambeau Field with its first shutout win since a 13-0 effort over the Lions on Dec 5, 1993. And it was their first blanking of the Packers since '71. The Bears field 8th best "D" in the NFL, but 30th-ranked "O", that won't dent the Vikings in this |
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12-31-17 | Packers v. Lions -7 | 11-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It seems difficult to believe that the Lions are again on the outside, looking in, playoff-wise. Especially with the season that Stafford has had, 26 TD passes & just 10 picks, along with 4,123 PYs. So, as the highest paid player in NFL history, he has exactly zero playoff wins. They are 3-4 at home this season, but note the favorite covering to the tune of 7-1-2 in Detroit's last 10 games. For the Packers, they weren't shutout in 158 games, with Rodgers, but have been blanked twice since Hundley took over starting job 8 games ago. Visitor is 7-2 ATS in Green Bay games, but Lions in a romp |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -10 | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last of our 3 Super Bowl rematches (SB XV: 27-10 Raiders). If you discount the Donovan McNabb era, the Eagles have won exactly two playoff games since the Raiders destroyed the birds. For Philly, Foles is doing it again, clicking on 24-of-38 for 237 yards & 4 TDs (no picks). Have to hand it to this franchise for getting him back, but that "D" has allowed 29.3 points per game the last 3 weeks. Raiders are on a 1-7-2 ATS run on the road, & have topped 17 points in only 4 of their last 12 games. Eagles soar again. |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +9 | 34-6 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Steelers in off sickening loss to the Patriots, on a TD reversal in the closing seconds. Now they know, in all likelihood, that they'll have to travel to New England to get to the Super Bowl. Not only that, but the status of Brown's torn calf is beyond crucial. Another fine performance from Ben: 22-of-30 for 281 yards & 2 TDs, but killed by that end zone pick in the closing seconds. Texans have a 192-104 pt deficit since Watson went out, & Savage is doubtful. Pitt is 1-6 ATS as a chalk of more than 7 points this season |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units He's back. The Cowboys have turned it all around, with 3 straight wins (+42½ pts ATS), following their futility in their first 3 games without Elliott (7, 9, 6 pts), thereby keeping their postseason dreams alive & well. Remember, they covered their last HG by 24 pts. Seahawks are in off their worst loss in Pete Carroll's eight seasons. Completely dominated from the opening whistle vs the Rams. Wilson: just 14-of-30, with 7 sacks. The 'Boys are 8-1 ATS off a pair of wins vs a non-division opponent. It's Dallas. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | 33-44 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags in off their 7th win in last 8 outings, thereby clinching a post-season spot for the first time since 2007. They were an NFL-worst 22-74 over the previous 6 years. Check Bortles with a season-high 326 yards & the best QB rating (143.6) of his career, in rout of the Texans. He is 7/0 over the last 3 years. And note the Jaguar "D" holding 8 foes to 10 points or less. Three straight wins for the Niners, but just 1 TD (6 FGs) in win over the Titans. Garoppolo a career-high 381 yards. But going gets tougher |
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12-24-17 | Lions -3 v. Bengals | 17-26 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, that's it for Marvin Lewis. He never won a playoff game, as this year's Cincy squad is sinking fast, with 33-7, 34-7 losses in their last 2 games. Dalton last week: 11-of-22 for 113 yards. Bengals didn't cross midfield vs Minny until the final 3 minutes of the 3rd. Lions need 'em all to have a shot at landing a Wild Card slot. No TOs for Stafford in win over the Bears He has thrown for 3,920 yards, along with 25 TDs, & only 9 picks, & the chalk is on a 7-0-2 ATS run in Detroit games. No other way here. |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -10 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's see. A division sandwich for both teams (Buffalo sandwich for Dolphins). The Chiefs have shaken their previous trend in which the visitor was king, as the host is now on a 7-1 ATS run in KC games. They seem to have recaptured their early season brilliance (5-0 start), & have now taken control of the AFC West with LW's convincing rout of the red hot Chargers. Smith: another 2/0, so now at superb 25/5, while Hunt chipped in with 155 yards. Miami has a 144-54 pt deficit in its last 4 RGs. It continues. |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys -3 v. Raiders | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these squads are fighting for their playoff lives. Dak was splendid in the 'Boys' rout of the Giants. He was 20-of-30, for 332 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions and Dallas is a game back in Wild Card chase. Ditto the Raiders, who are a game behind both the Chiefs & Chargers in the AFC West. Oakland was held scoreless until the final 9 minutes of their 26-15 loss to KC (140-yard deficit). |
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12-17-17 | Titans +3 v. 49ers | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 2nd of 3 straight out of conference games for both of these squads. Titans in off holding the Cards without a TD, but still losing. Now find themselves looking up at the Jags in the NFC South, with Mariota tossing more picks than TDs this year (10/14). He was 6-of-16 for 60 yards & 2 picks in the 2nd half of that one. It wasn't all bad for the Titans, as their "D" had 8 sacks vs the Cards. This is a must win for the Titans |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks -1 | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one has huge implications on the NFL West. Last week, after a horrific 3 quarters, Seattle's Wilson again showed his magic in the 4th, with TD tosses of 61 & 74 yards. However, it wasn't enough to stop the up-&-coming Jags, as his 3 picks eventually did them in. Only the 3rd time in his career that has happened. Last week, the Rams put quite a beating on Wentz, in that loss to Philly, even before they knocked him out of the game. Goff: only 199 yards |
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12-17-17 | Bengals v. Vikings -12 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bengals face their former defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, here. Dalton is off a horrible 141 passing yards (1/1), in their embarrassing loss to the 3-win Bears, being more than doubled in first downs & total yards. Cincinnati's worst home drubbing since a 34-3 loss to Baltimore in '08. Minnesota's 8-game winning streak is history, although the Vikings did come back from an 11-point 4th quarter deficit. Minnesota defense has held 8 of its last 11 foes under 18 points. |
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12-17-17 | Ravens -6.5 v. Browns | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, we all know that the Ravens are normally a defensive force (7th in the NFL), but they've sure opened up that offense over the past couple of months, with a 189-98 point edge in their last 6 games. So 38 points & 414 yards vs the Steelers' 3rd-ranked offense, in last week's 39-38 crusher. Can things get any worse for the Browns, who blew a 2-TD 2nd half lead over the Packers, losing in OT? Kizer: 3 TD passes, but a killer OT pick. Cleveland is 3-8 ATS as a home dog of more than 3½ points, & is averaging 11.6 points per game in their last 5 home games |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a game for a national TV audience. The top spot in the NFL West is on the line. Total domination for the red hot Chargers, in their rout of the 'Skins: 24-9 first downs, 174-65 rushing yards, & 488-201 total yard edges. So 4 straight wins for the Bolts, with a 151-53 point edge. Rivers: another 319 passing yards (2 TDs: now 23/7), passing Warren Moon for 9th place on the all-time NFL passing yard list. KC in off snapping 4-game slide. In their last 15 AFC West games, the Chiefs have won 14. But an L.A. call here. |
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12-11-17 | Patriots -10 v. Dolphins | 20-27 | Loss | -117 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In both '13 & '15, Pats lost here late in the year, to relinquish home field to the Broncos. Both of those seasons ended with the Patriots losing the AFC title game in Mile High. Will history repeat, as they battle Steelers for home field advantage? Nope. Eight straight wins for New England, holding all 8 opponents below 18 pts. Contrast that to Miami in off snapping 5-game losing streak (allowing 34.2 ppg in that run). Pats took Dolphins, 35-14 here last year, as well as winning 35-17 in their earlier '17 meeting. Once again. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers -4.5 | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a great series this has been in the 21st century, having played some classic battles, both in the regular season, & in the playoffs. The Ravens live via their defense (7th), & the TO (1st at +14), as their offense ranks ahead of only Tampa in the NFL. Check a point edge of 150-59 in their last 5 games, with Flacco finally even in TD/INT ratio (11/11). The Steelers are in off their Monday battle with the Bengals, & are the match for Ravens' "D" (4th) but also coming in at 7th on "O". Forget revenge factor. |
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12-10-17 | Jets -1 v. Broncos | 0-23 | Loss | -117 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It just continues to amaze. How the Broncos could come from Super Bowl winners, to their current state is nearly impossible to grasp. An absolutely astounding 0-8 SU & ATS slide with a deficit of 241-108 points. I keep rewriting it, but it just extends their worst run in 50 years. Last week, they managed 9 points vs a Dolphin team that gave up 205 points in their prior 6 games (34.2 ppg). A 3-game stranglehold on the cellar of the AFC West. The Jets are in off posting 30 first downs & a time edge of 42:49-17:11 in win over Kansas City |
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12-10-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 might end up playing each other in January. This is the last of a brutal 3-game road trip for Minnesota, who just keep on winning, with their current SU run now at 8-0, with accompanying 7-1 ATS mark (only miss by ½ pt). Keenum in off yet another fine performance: 25-of-30, in throttling of the Falcons, allowing no touchdowns. Panthers covered their last home game by 16 points, but note the visitor is on an 11-4 ATS run in Carolina games |
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12-10-17 | Packers -3 v. Browns | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Another one of those "old school" classic NFL match ups: Brown, Hornung, Lombardi, etc. Well, you might know. Just 10 points for the Browns at the Chargers, but still managed to cover (to our dismay) a 2-touchdown spot vs a team which had scored 82 points in its previous 2 outings. Two more turnovers, so Cleveland leads the NFL (-19) in the all-important category. |
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | 30-10 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Hard to believe that this one may end up being meaningless in the NFC playoff race (notice time change). Will Eli get the start, after seeing his streak of 210 games end last week, to Geno Smith, of all people. Cowboys got their first win without Zeke on Thursday night behind Morris' 127 RYs, & Dak got his first TD pass since Nov 5th, but still just 102 passing yards. And Dez broke Bob Hayes' club record for TD grabs (74). Dallas is 3-11 ATS as a division road favorite off a double digit SU win, vs an opponent off a SU setback |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the beginning of some huge match ups in the NFL this weekend. Back in the '90's, taking the road team in this series was gold. Falcons came from averaging 33 points per game in previous 3 outings, to just 3 field goals in 14-9 loss to Minnesota. First time since in 2 years that the Falcons went without a TD, & Ryan's 30-game run with at least 1 TD pass, is now history. Saints 1-game up on Carolina, with last weeks balanced win (Ingram & Kamara: 145 rushing yards). So New Orleans is now at 31.2 points per game in their last 10 games. |
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11-30-17 | Redskins -1.5 v. Cowboys | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the 13th straight year, the NFC East will not have a repeat champion, which is truly amazing. Guess McNabb wasn't so bad after all. Third straight home game for the 'Boys, but little seems to matter, as this team has lost its last 3 games, by a combined score of 90-22 (-61 points ATS) with just 1 touchdown in its last 11 quarters. Check Dak with 5 picks in last 2 games. He threw only 4 a year ago. Another? Okay. Outscored 72-6 in 2nd half of those 3. Redskins a dangerous team, holding Giants to 7 first downs last week. I cannot back "Big D" |
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11-26-17 | Jaguars -5 v. Cardinals | 24-27 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Visitor continues to shine in Jag games, covering 7-of-8. Gift cover for Jacksonville at Cleveland, on a recovered end zone fumble in final 1:14. Fourth straight win for Jags, in sole possession of first place in AFC South, holding 6 opponents to 7 points or less. So lead division after 10 games, for 1st time since 1999. And 5 more takeaways for league's top ranked defense. Check Cards' Gabbert with 257 passing yards and career-high 3 touchdowns in his first start of the season. However, Arizona is allowing 30 points per game in their 6 underdog roles this year |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 69 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hard to believe that only 3 years ago, this may have been the best rivalry in the league. Just goes to show you what a great coach Jim Harbaugh is. For the Niners, the slump is over. They have won. Should have happened weeks ago, but it was nice to see Kyle Shanahan get his first W. Note that Goodwin's 83-yd catch was the longest touchdown for the 49ers, since Kaepernick's 90-yard run 4 years ago. San Francisco is 2-10 ATS vs Seattle, as well as 0-5 ATS off its bye |
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11-26-17 | Bears v. Eagles -13.5 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A Dallas/Seattle sandwich for the Eagles. But does it matter? Are now on an 8-0 SU run, as well as a 7-0 ATS skein. A week ago, it was simply stunning how Philly turned a brutal first half war (9-7 deficit) into a 37-9 blowout. Averaging 32 points per game, with Wentz at a brilliant 25 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. And how about its top-ranked run defense? One of Fox's greatest moments came here in the '03 NFC Title game, when his Panthers upset Reid's Eagles. Bears on 4-1-1 ATS run, but can they slow down the Eagles? Until it changes I say "No"! |
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11-26-17 | Bucs v. Falcons -9.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 66 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Finally a road win for the Bucs, who had dropped 6 straight as visitors, although their win over Miami's feeble offense (#31) saw Tampa with a 448-321 yard deficit (5-0 turn over edge). And before that one, note that the Bucs had allowed 34, 38, 30, & 30 points in the visiting role. So now must go it vs last years NFC champs. The Falcons entered their Monday Nighter with the Seahawks on a 1-5 ATS slide, as well as a 2-4 SU run. But Atlanta is 8-1 ATS off Monday games, & Quinn is 8-2 ATS off non-division, vs opponent off a road game. |
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11-26-17 | Bills v. Chiefs -9.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 66 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Many heavy favorites this week. Bills' QB change really worked. Five 1st half picks for Peterman on only 12 passes. Three straight losses for the Bills, who entered with the best turn over ratio in the NFL (+11), before 6-0 deficit vs the Chargers. The Bills' worst defensive half since 1977. Four losses in five games for the Chiefs, with no touchdowns in windswept loss to then 1-8 Giants. However, Kansas City is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs AFC East |
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11-23-17 | Giants v. Redskins -7 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Do the Giants own the AFC West elites, coming off their bye weeks, or not? First they took the Broncos, & now the first place Chiefs, picking Smith off twice, while holding him without a touchdown. He entered at a superb 18 touchdowns with only 1 interception, by the way. The end of the Saint/Skin game was very similar to the end of this past Super Bowl? Cousins was 22-of-32 for 322 yards & 3 touchdowns, only to see Washington's 31-16 lead with 3:00 left turn into an overtime loss. Washington 8-1 ATS as NFC favorite of more than 4 points coming off of 2 losses. |
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11-20-17 | Falcons +3 v. Seahawks | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the moment that this Falcon team has been awaiting. Remember last year's game here, when they didn't call that obvious pass interference, in the final 1:30, when Sherman or Thomas just tackled Julio Jones? But "Legion of Boom" could be without both of these stars vs this dangerous team. Eight sacks vs Dallas, their most since 9 on 10/2/05 vs Minnesota. Seattle's defense shut down Peterson on Thursday, with Wilson 22-of-32 for 238 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions (now 19/6). Atlanta is 9-1 ATS as a road dog off allowing under 8 points, while Seattle is 1-5 ATS off a Thursday game, & also 1-5 ATS vs the NFC South. |
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11-19-17 | Eagles -5 v. Cowboys | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wow, these Eagles just keep on doing it. In off their bye. Have outscored opponents, 64-12, in the 1st quarter this year. Check their current 7-0 SU run, covering their last 6 by 64½ points. Wentz, of course, is their trigger, throwing for 23 touchdowns, with only 5 picks. Four touchdown passes vs the Broncos. And get this: he has three 4-touchdown performances in the last 5 weeks. And toss in the fact that Philly ranks #1 in rushing defense. The Cowboys are without "Zeke", although Dak has 25 touchdowns in 50 games, the 2nd fastest to get there, behind only Dan Marino. But this one is an Eagle call. |
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11-19-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Vikings | 7-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two could end up playing each other again in January. Rams have won 3 games by 30+ points. In their previous 213 games, they did it 3 times. And this season, they've scored 40+ points 3 times. In their previous 161 games, they managed that just 3 times. So 4 straight wins, & covers, including +42½ points ATS in their last 2 road games. Check Goff with 355 passing yards & 3 touchdowns. Five straight wins for Minnesota (Keenum: 304 passing yards & 4 touchdowns vs Washington). Rams are 12-1 ATS vs .500+ favorites vs an opponent who is off 2+ SU wins. |
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11-19-17 | Redskins v. Saints -7.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units About time that I stopped going against the Saints, who've won 7 straight games, covering 6 (+104 points ATS). Check averaging 35 points per game in their last 5 contests, while holding 5-of-7 opponents to 13 points or less. Ingram is in off a career-best 3 touchdowns, & 131 rushing yards, with New Orleans finishing with 298 rushing yards & 32 first downs. Right, they never punted in rout of the Bills, scoring 5 times in their first 6 possessions. Redskins have dropped 5-of-6 vs the points, although Cousins had 327 passing yards & 3 touchdowns vs Minnesota, 2 rushing & 1 passing. And they have the Giants & Cowboys on deck. I jump on this rolling train. |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs -10 v. Giants | 9-12 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, the visiting streak in Giant games is now by the boards, after NY was done in at San Francisco (Niners' first win). But the other side of that trend is the Giants losing at home (by 30 points ATS hosting the Rams just 2 weeks back). Last week, Eli tied brother Peyton, for the most consecutive starts, with 208. And Manning an efficient 28-of-37, along with 2 touchdown passes, so he now has 14 touchdowns with 6 interceptions for the year. But NY's 30th-ranked defense has now allowed 106 points in its 3-game slide. KC's Smith finally threw his first pick of the year (18 touchdowns with only the 1 interception). Chiefs rested off 1-3 slide, after 5-0 start. Lay it. |
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11-19-17 | Jaguars -7.5 v. Browns | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Browns' woes continue. Led the Lions, 10-0, early in the game, for their first double-digit lead of the season, but it wasn't to be as Detroit pulled away with 21-0 windup on 3 Stafford touchdown passes. But note Cleveland with a 28-16 first down edge, with 201 rushing yards, and a 34:34-25:26 time edge. Kizer: 232 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception. Jacksonville's Marrone lost here as HC of the Bills in '13, 37-24. Three straight wins for "Sacksonville", on tipped OT FG vs the Chargers, although no touchdowns for Fournette (1st time this year). The Jags are 8-1 ATS vs the AFC North, while the Browns' Jackson is 3-7 ATS as a home dog of 4 or more points. |
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11-16-17 | Titans +7 v. Steelers | 17-40 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have won 4 straight games. Old hat for the Steelers, but the Titans hadn't done that since '09. And the best start for this franchise, since '08, when they ended up as the #1 seed in the AFC. Check those 27-15 first down & 180-53 rushing yard edges over the Bengals, taking it on a Mariota TD pass in the final 0:36. Pittsburgh has taken 5 in a row in this series, with their current run made possible by a pair of 2nd half touchdown throws from Ben, who has just 12 touchdowns with 10 interceptions for the season. A quirk shows that the Steelers lost their last non-division home game by 28 points ATS. Pittsburgh has a 3-game lead in their division. But this one is going to be tight. Take the points. |
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11-12-17 | Patriots -7.5 v. Broncos | 41-16 | Win | 101 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Stick a fork in this squad. It doesn't matter if it's Simien, Brock, or Lynch, the Broncos are done. There is only so much that even this defense can do. Were out gained 419-226, & had a first down deficit of 25-14 in unimaginable 51-23 loss to the Eagles. Hadn't allowed 30 points in a game this year, nor any touchdown runs. And things don't get any easier, now catching the defending champs off their bye. Anything else? This defense (still #1) has forced only 7 turnovers all season. Pats on 4-game winning streak, with Tom at 2,541 passing yards & 16 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. And with Gronk fully healthy, not about to buck this squad. |
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11-12-17 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Falcons | 7-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twenty-four years ago, the Cowboys came to Atlanta, & won their 2nd of back-to-back Super Bowls vs the Bills. That game was played in the now extinct Georgia Dome. Anytime the 'Boys take the field this year, the question looms: "Will he play?". Obviously the continuing saga that is Elliott's availability has to take its toll, although you would never know it as Dallas is at 31.7 points per game in their last 6 games. 'Boys looked impressive, holding KC's Hunt to 37 rushing yards (entered at 95.4 yards per game). Falcons in off seeing brilliant WR Jones drop a wide open TD with 8:12 left, & have lost their last 2 home games by 14 & 16 points ATS |
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11-12-17 | Texans v. Rams -11.5 | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 young & exciting teams looked like they were both heading to the playoffs, prior to Watson's injury, which is a crushing blow, & boy, didn't it show on Sunday vs the Colts. With Deshaun running the offense, Texans set a franchise record by scoring 30 or more points in 5 straight games. But in loss to Indy, nary an offensive TD until the final 6:11. Rams' Goff set career highs with 4 TDs & 311 passing yards in 51-17 rout of the definitely "hapless" Giants. L.A.'s 6-2 start is franchise's best since 2001. Rams are 13-2 ATS as favorites off scoring more than 34 points. Going in opposite directions |