NFL Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
11-10-19 | Ravens -10 v. Bengals | 49-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You could see it in the eyes of the Patriots. They had no answers for the brilliance of Lamar Jackson, who just about personally took them apart. Ravens led the league in rushing, before that one, & just added to that stat vs one of the NFL's top-ranked defense. So the Bengals, who rank dead last in both total & rushing "D", must pick up the mantle in trying to contain them. Cincinnati is 0-8 for first time since '08, allowing 450+ yards in 4 straight games, tying team record. And Dalton has now lost 11 straight starts. Bengals are 1-7 ATS as division home dogs of 4 points or more. Romp. |
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11-10-19 | Chiefs -6 v. Titans | 32-35 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chiefs haven't forgotten how the Titans ended their season in '17, 22-21, as 9-point home favorites in Arrowhead. A 44-yd field goal at the buzzer got the win for KC last week, snapping a 3-game home losing streak. Andy Reid 201 wins puts him 6th all-time. Williams: 12 carries, 125 yards, & a 91-yard TD. Hill: 6 catches, 140 yards, & a 40-yd TD. His 20th career TD of 40+ yards. Moore's first win since '16, with the Dolphins. No Titans/Oilers QB has ever started their Houston career 3-0, not Warren Moon, not Dan Pastorini, not Steve McNair. That went up in flames in Carolina. Henry 99 yards from scrimmage & 2 TDs. Chiefs are 3-0 ATS at Tennessee. KC again. |
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11-10-19 | Falcons v. Saints -13.5 | 26-9 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams coming in off their bye week. Talk about 2 teams heading in completely opposite directions. Six straight losses for the Falcons, their worst start in 16 seasons. Schaub's 5th game of 400+ yards, & his first since 2012. It was first start by a Falcon QB other than Ryan, since '09. Falcons had better stats than the Seahawks, but 3 turn overs did them in. Check Brees vs the Cards: 34-for-43, 373 passing yards, 3 TDs, & just 1 pick. Extended his NFL record to 38 games with 350+ yards & 3 TD passes. And that New Orleans "D" has now held 5 straight opponents to less than 260 total yards. Sure, the spot is heavy, but smoking Saints on 6-0 run, both SU & ATS. Ditto |
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11-10-19 | Cardinals +4.5 v. Bucs | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Still have no idea why Arians didn't go for 2 at the end of regulation in Bucs' OT loss to the Seahawks. No way that that exhausted "D" was stopping Wilson in that situation. First time all year that the Bucs had someone rush for 100+ yds at them (Caron's 105 yds). Winston was 29/44 for 335 yds & 2 TDs. And Evans was a beast with 12 grabs. Bucs blew a 21-7 lead in that one. Kingsbury has to be kicking himself for calling that timeout at the end of the half in tight loss to the Niners. Ended up costing the Cards 7 big pts. Newly acquired RB Drake: 110 RYs. Murray another solid game, 241 passing yards, 2 TDs, while rushing for 34 yds. Cards are 3-0 ATS vs Bucs. |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys -6.5 v. Giants | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cowboys coming off bye. Back in control of NFC East after ending a 3-game run. Have feasted vs lesser lights, with their 4 wins (all covers) coming vs teams with a combined log of 7-23 SU. Prescott's 8-yard scoring run vs Philly broke Roger Staubach's team record of 20 rushing TDs by a QB. Giants have allowed 27+ points 7-of-8 games this year, having lost 4 games in a row before the end of October in back-to-back seasons, giving up 30.3 points per game in that slump. Cowboys rank 1st on "O", & 5th on "D", while Giants 24th on "O" & 27th on "D". Buck Monday Night home division dog theory. |
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11-03-19 | Patriots -3 v. Ravens | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units An AFC Championship preview? Belichick now 3rd coach ever with 300+ wins, joining Shula & Halas. Third 8-0 start in team history ('07 & '15). Lead the NFL with a +17 TO margin after forcing 3 more in win over the Browns. Now have a point differential of +189 through 8 games (3rd best ever). Twenty straight home wins. But this one isn't played in Foxboro, with Ravens on best start (5-2) since '14. Jackson has been the fly in opponents' defensive ointment. Another 143 passing yards & 116 rushing yards in last week's win over Seattle. He is 5th in the NFL in rushing. But that Patriot "D". |
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11-03-19 | Packers -3.5 v. Chargers | 11-26 | Loss | -102 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rodgers returns to the city of his worst game last season, dropping a 29-27 heartbreaker vs the eventual NFC Champion Rams. He's smoking now, coming off a 3-TD effort in 31-24 win over the Chiefs, including the eventual winning 67-TD yard pass for the 7-point win. Chargers kept their season alive, with that lucky win in Chicago. Had a 38:00-22:00 time deficit, but snapped their 3-game losing streak. First team since '46 Lions with fewer than 40 rushing yards in 4 straight games. Pack 14-0 ATS in 2nd of 2 road games vs less than .500 non-division foes. |
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11-03-19 | Lions +3 v. Raiders | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lions' 3-game losing skein is now over, with narrow win over the 2-6 Giants. Now 3-3-1, for their best start since '16. Four games of 27+ points, after having just 4 of those all last season. Stafford last week: 25of-32 for 342 yards & 3 TDs, including 49-yard & 41-yard TD passes. Raiders "D" allowing 35 points per game last 2 weeks. Gave up 130 rushing yards in loss to Houston, with a first down deficit of 29-15. Oakland has allowed 27+ points 4 times this year (0-4 in those games). Carr: 18-for 30, 285 yards, & 3 TDs. Williams: 3 catches & a TD. He now has a TD in all 5 games he's played this year. Yet another NFL nail biter |
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11-03-19 | Bears +4.5 v. Eagles | 14-22 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Was the "Fog Bowl" really 31 years ago? Another brutal home loss for the Bears, on missed 41-yard field goal at the gun, vs the Chargers. Have dropped 3 straight for the first time in Nagy's tenure. Last 4 drives: 2 turnovers, one punt, & that missed field goal. Bears have been outscored 50-21 in the 4th quarter this year. Eagles' 2-game losing run is over, doing it the old fashioned way, with more than 200 rushing yards, & 3 rushing TDs in the rain in Buffalo, outscoring the Bills, 20-6, in the 2nd half, as Philly had a 10-minute time of possession advantage. Bears reaching "now-or-never" stage. We call it "now". |
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11-03-19 | Texans v. Jaguars | 26-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seventh straight year in London for the Jags. Sacksonville is back! Eight sacks for the Jags in last week's 29-15 romper over the Jets (389-213 yard edge, along with 3 picks). That "D" has now held 5 teams to 17 points, or less. And check Minshew: 22-of-34, 279 yards, & 3 TDs. Also ran for 28 yards. He's now a superb 13 touchdowns with 2 interceptions this year. For the Texans, they're in off only their 2nd game without a turnover. Third win after falling behind at the half. Watson: 27-of-39, 279 yards, 3 TDs. His third game this year, with 3+ TD passes & no picks. Jags 1-11 ATS before the Colts |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +6 | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Obviously, the #1 concern here is the status of Mahomes' dislocated knee. What a gruesome injury that is. Before he got hurt, Mahomes became the fastest player in NFL history to throw for 7,500 yards, in just his 25th game. Mahomes: 15 TDs and one interception this season. This could be a rematch of Super Bowl I. Who knows? Rodgers, last week: 25/31, 429 yards, 5 TDs (21, 2, 37, 3 & 74 yards). Teams without star QBs seem to play a step above normalcy. Chief call here |
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10-27-19 | Panthers v. 49ers -4.5 | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Niners are 6-0 for the first time since '90, and the 6th team since '90 to limit an opponent to 7 or fewer points, & fewer than 200 yards for 3 straight games. Garoppolo the 6th QB to win at least 14 of his first 16 career starts. San Francisco has not given up a point in its last 18 defensive possessions. First road shutout win since '12, although sloppy weather didn't help us out in that ½ point loss last week. Panthers are 4-0 without Cam, with 23 sacks for the "D", & Allen first QB to start a career 5-0, without a pick |
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10-27-19 | Seahawks -7 v. Falcons | 27-20 | Push | 0 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 have battled on a few occasions in the playoffs. Falcons taking both games in '12 & '16. Another thing they have in common, is blowing Super Bowls to the Pats in both '14, & '16. After Julio Jones' miracle catch, Falcons never should have thrown another pass. Two years prior, Beast Mode should have gotten that ball 100 times out of 100. Check Seattle being outscored 17-3 in the 2nd half at home, vs the Ravens. First pick thrown by Wilson this year, & a pick-6 to boot. Five straight losses for Falcons. Haven't recorded a sack in a month, allowing 36 points per game during this streak. 'Hawks |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills -1 | 31-13 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Weird tidbit here. Brian Westbrook scored his first NFL TD in this building on Sept 28, 2003. Eagles did win that one, on their way to their 3rd straight NFC Championship appearance. Bills off to best start in 11 years, with that Buffalo "D" on a streak of 13 games of not allowing 250 yards of passing. Allen: 16-of-26, 202 yards, 2 TDs. His 4th game with 2+ TD passes. Outscored Dolphins 22-7 in 2nd half. Philly is 2-13 ATS as an October dog vs an opponent off DD SW win. Buffalo just keeps it going |
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10-27-19 | Broncos v. Colts -4.5 | 13-15 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a horrible offensive display for the Broncos at home vs the Chiefs last Thursday. After driving the length of the field for a TD on their opening possessions (aided by 2 pass interference calls on 3rd down), they put up a goose egg over the final 54 minutes to the much maligned Chiefs' "D". Denver converted just 1 of 13 third downs, botched a 2 point conversion, never reaching 200 yards until the last play of the game in garbage time. Colts haven't allowed a 100-yd rusher in 24 straight games. Only way. |
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10-24-19 | Redskins v. Vikings -15.5 | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kirk Cousins takes on his former squad, as Case Keenum makes his return to Minnesota. Worst start for 'Skins since '98, & are 0-4 home for 1st time since '94. Just 154 total yards in the rain for Washington last week. Now 8 straight losses at home for the Redskins, although another 81 rushing yards for Adrian. Three straight wins for the Vikings, also scoring TDs on 4 straight drives. Cousins 10 TDs & 1 pick in last 3 games. Averaging 36 points per game during that 3-game run. First 4-TD game for Cousins since 2015. Cook leads the NFL with 5 games over 100 rushing yards. Zimmer 20-2 ATS as non division home favorite |
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10-21-19 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 49 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last of 6 divisional matchups this week. Brady 31 of 41 for 334 yards, 1 pick, 2 TD runs and moved ahead of Peyton Manning for second place on the NFL's all-time passing yards list. At 42 years and 68 days, Brady became the oldest player in the Super Bowl era to rush for 2 TDs in a game. What a difference Darnold makes for the Jets! Season high yards (382) & points (24). Snapped a 7-game losing streak in that huge win over the Boys. Darnold 23/32, 338 yards, 2 TDs (92 & 5 yards), with 1 interception. Three offensive TDs against the 'Boys after just 2 of their first 4 games. Patriots again |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | 10-37 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eagles in the middle of a brutal 3 game road trip with Buffalo on deck. Eagles D finally gave up 100 yards rushing for the first time in 9 games in Minnesota last weekend. Only the 2nd time in Pederson's tenure that they've allowed more than 38 points. Not only that, but their defensive backs are not healthy. Wentz 26/40, 306 yards, 2 TDs (32 & 3 yarders), 1 interception. How long can Jason Garret last if this losing streak continues? First 3-game losing streak sine '17. 0 TDs in first 8 possessions. They have zero 1st half TDs during this slump. Dak 28/40, 277 yards. Zeke 105 rushing yards, & 1 TD. An Eagle call. |
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10-20-19 | Saints +4.5 v. Bears | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Another potential playoff preview, with the tiebreaker between these two looming large come January. Trust us, the Saints don't want to travel to Chicago and the Bears want no part of the Superdome in the postseason. Saints now 4-0 without Drew Brees. Five wins this year have come by a total of 24 points. Have now won 9 straight vs the AFC. Chicago coming off a bye. Bears dominant D allowed 2 TDs and a FG on Oakland's first 4 possessions. They allowed season-high in yards (398) & points (24) in London. Bears were manhandled in the first half 2 weeks ago. Not here |
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10-20-19 | Ravens +3 v. Seahawks | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We must admit that we saw the NFL future of Lamar Jackson, in a clouded window. His brilliant open field running for Louisville hardly prevented a pair of bowl losses, thereby overshadowing his overhead ability, the type of player, whose talents were hardly conducive to a promising pro career. Forget it. He does it all. Last week, he became the first player in NFL history, with 200 passing yards & 150 rushing yards in a game. His opponent, here, 'Hawks' Wilson is perhaps the best QB in the NFL, so a learning curve, to be sure. One of season's best matchups. An upset! |
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10-20-19 | 49ers -9.5 v. Redskins | 9-0 | Loss | -112 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The reason why review was put into play in the first place, was the 1983 NFC Title game between these two when there was a controversial pass interference call on Eric Wright that helped propel the Skins to the Super Bowl. San Fran already has more wins than all of last year (4-12). Garoppolo 24/33, 243 yards, 1 interception. The good news, the Skins got a 'W' last week. The bad news, it was by a single point. against the hapless Dolphins. A win is a win though. 5 sacks & 2 picks vs. Miami. They have now won 17 straight games when allowing less than 17 points. That's not the case in this. |
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10-20-19 | Texans +1 v. Colts | 23-30 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texans & Pats the only AFC teams without an AFC loss this year. Houston scored 28 of the last 35 points vs Chiefs. Deshaun Watson: 30-of-42, 280 yards, & 1 TD, & running for 2, while erasing a 17-3 first quarter deficit. Thus, a 28-7 windup. How about Colts going into Arrowhead, & dominating previously unbeaten Chiefs. Marlon Mack ran for 132 yards on 29 carries, with another 4 Vinatieri FGs. Indy allowed points on KC's first 2 possessions, before shutting them out, until a field goal in the last 1:16. QB Brissett ran it in for Colts only TD. Slightest QB edge to Watson over Brissett. |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | 30-6 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units hat's more like it, with Broncos getting their first shutout in 2 years. Allowing 37 rushing yards per game last 2 weeks. Now have 5 takeaways in 2 weeks, after having zero in the first 4 games of the year. Sacked Titan QBs 7 times. Two-game losing streak for the Chiefs. Bizarre, to say the least. Mahomes came in here in Primetime last year, & ripped the Bronco's hearts out with game-winning drive (27-23). Remember that left handed throw with Von Miller bringing him down? He still doesn't look right with that left ankle injury. Chiefs' last 6 drives last week: 2 TOs & 1 TD. Primetime home division dog. |
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers -3 | 22-23 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lions are coming off their BYE. All 4 games this season have been decided by 4 points or fewer. Stafford 21/34, 291 yards, 3 TDs vs Chiefs 2 weeks ago, despite playing with an injury. That's his 2nd game this season with 3+ TD passes and 0 interceptions. K. Johnson 26 rushes, 125 yards rushing and 32 yards receiving. Rodgers 22/34, 238 yards. Jones: 19 rush, 107 yards, 4 TDs to go along with 75 yards receiving. They are now 4-0 all time in AT&T Stadium. Have outscored opponents 42-3 in first quarter this year (14-0 vs Boys). The Lions are 1-6 ATS as dogs vs opposition off a double digit SU win. Bunched up NFC North, with Packers a chance to loosen it up. Grab their division Monday nighter |
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10-13-19 | Steelers +7 v. Chargers | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If a team was ever up against it, these Steelers fill the bill, not only losing Big Ben, but with more than able backup Rudolph having his bell rung, with no less than 3 interceptions, proof enough. However, the Chargers are banged up stem to stern, especially along the offensive line & secondary, and they are in off a game in which they managed no offensive TDs (punt return). That Pittsburgh defense should extend Chargers "O" problems, while the Steelers are a premier NFL underdog (currently 21-8 ATS). |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a loss for the Rams in Seattle, with Zuerlein missing the winner at the buzzer, after hitting three field goals earlier in the game. Goff: 29-of-49 for 395 yards & a TD, just days after throwing for a career-high 517 yards & tying an NFL record with no less than 45 completions in a loss to Tampa Bay. Everett had 7 catches for 136 yards, and Cooper Kupp had nine grabs for 118 yards. Gurley another 51 rushing yards, but also a costly fumble. L.A. is 0-6 ATS of |
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10-13-19 | Texans +4.5 v. Chiefs | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just another awesome matchup with these 2 QBs. Second of back-to-back AFC South home games for the Chiefs. Most total yards for the Texans (593) since '12. And for just the 2nd time in team history, scoring over 50 points. Watson brilliant 28-of-33, 426 yards (career-high), 5 TDs (ties career-high),& 47 rushing yards. That's right, 5 TD passes, & 5 incompletions. Will Fuller: 14 receptions, 217 yards, & 3 TDs. Three straight spread setbacks for the Chiefs, with a 180-36 rushing yard deficit vs the Colts, as well as a single TD pass from Mahomes (22-of-39), who leads NFL with 1,831 passing yards, 11 TDs, 1 Interception. |
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10-13-19 | Panthers -1 v. Bucs | 37-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Every other week for the Bucs, while the Panthers are streaking with 4 straight wins & covers. Buc fans won't be too thrilled, giving up a home game in Tampa. But when the owners (the Glazers) have ties in England, with owning Manchester United, it's bound to happen. McCaffrey: 237 yards from scrimmage ties career high: joins Jim Brown in 1963, as the only players with at least 175 yards from scrimmage in 4 of the team's first 5 games of the year. In Bucs' last 4 games, Winston has 10 TD passes, & only 2 picks. 'Bay ceding 30+ points in 4-of-5 tilts. |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pats have now won 18 straight home games, & the 4th time that they're 5-0 under Belichick. No wait, there's more. First time in Patriots history with 4 straight games with at least 5 sacks. Have not allowed a TD pass in 6 straight games. Amazing! Pats are now 55-14 SU vs the NFC, outscoring the 'Skins 21-0 in the 2nd half, with Brady 28- of-42 for 348 yards & 3 TDs. Trails only Manning & Brees with 71,923 passing yards. Are Pats' fans happy not to see Eli under center for this one? New York has not been above .500 since '16, & won't challenge. Somewhere near spot, but it has to be Pats. |
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10-07-19 | Browns +5 v. 49ers | 3-31 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yet another prime time event for the Browns. A very intriguing match up here, with two new age head coaches and their popular gun slingers leading their squads. Mayfield vs Garoppolo will bring more than a few eyes to this one. Niners 3-0 for the first time since '98, with 5 turn overs (3 of them in the Red Zone) preventing the cover vs Pitt. San Francisco completely dominated Steelers statwise: 439-239 yard edge, with 26-11 first downs. San Francisco is 1-14 ATS as a chalk, & 0-8 ATS with rest, while Browns are 4-1 ATS vs AFC foes. |
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10-06-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -10.5 | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colts' season ended here last year, after winning 10-of-11. Not to beat a dead horse, but that was all with Luck under center. However, this team has been quietly putting themselves back into the postseason hunt, with Brissett a solid 10 touchdowns with 2 interceptions in replacing Luck, with Indy tied for both the top & the cellar of the AFC South (2-2 marks all the way around). Chiefs just go along unbeaten, behind Mahomes' brilliance. Another 315 passing yards in taking the Lions, winning on a 1-yard Williams TD run in the last 0:20. |
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10-06-19 | Bears -5 v. Raiders | 21-24 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Looks like Raiders aren't dead yet, after a pair of putrid showings (62-24 deficit), off their super start upsetting the Broncos. Oakland never trailed in 31-24 upset of the Colts, with Carr tossing TDs of 18, 60, 19 yards, & a "pick-6" thrown in. Bear "D" is doing its part, allowing 11.25 points per game. Put clamps on Minny's previous 194 rushing yards per game. |
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10-06-19 | Bills +3 v. Titans | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bills return to the site of the "Music City Miracle" nightmare that ended their 2000 season. Bills fuming over a "non call" on a helmet-to-helmet hit that prevented QB Allen to finish the game. Four Buffalo interceptions cost them dearly in that hard-fought 16-10 loss to the Patriots. For the Titans, try 3 first half Mariota TD passes, after his seemingly uninspired play previous 2 weeks (just 1 TD pass in each). Bills certainly legit. |
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10-06-19 | Patriots -15 v. Redskins | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There's "the Patriot Way" and "the Daniel Snyder Way". As history has shown time and time again, the Pats continue to be the gold standard in professional sports, while the Redskins keep on keeping on in their slide to oblivion. Hard to believe that this franchise won 3 Super Bowls in 9 years. The 'Skins ranked 30th in the NFL on offense, before Sunday's 3-point, 8-first down, & 176-yard effort at New York. Haskins for Keenum in that one, but the 2 combined for 4 interceptions. The 2-TD spot is a bargain. |
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10-06-19 | Vikings v. Giants +5.5 | 28-10 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nineteen years ago, the Vikings marched into New York as 2½ point road favorite in the 2000 NFC Title Game. The Giants led 41-0 at the half. Many had the Vikings and the Over (42), so that wasn't the end of the world until zero points were scored in the 2nd half. That's right, a 41-0 final. Ouch! The Giants have sure changed it all around since trailing Tampa by 18 points, holding the Redskins to 8 first downs, with a 389-176 total yard edge. Minnesota never got untracked in 6-point effort at Chicago. A take. |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though the Seahawks dropped one here to the "Breesless" Saints, this is a huge NFC West battle, as Seattle can't fall 2 games behind this early in the season. Thirty-six first downs & 518 yards (Goff: 517 passing yards) not enough, even though the Rams nearly came all the way back from an 18-pt deficit (38-20), to get to within 5 points of the Bucs (45-40). And you know Buc fans were dreading it, as Tampa had blown an identical 18-point lead over the Giants a week ago. A 27-yard "pick-6" by Clowney sparked Seahawks' rout of the lacking Cardinals. Rams 2-9 ATS on Thursdays, & 3-9 ATS at Seattle. |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Broncos | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Broncos fans will never forget the Jags coming in here as 12-point dogs in the '96 Divisionals, & upsetting the #1 seed, by a 30-27 count. Denver did go on go win the next 2 Super Bowls, but that loss still stings. Jags avoided the franchise's 2nd 0-3 start in 4 years, with 204 passing yards from Minshew. "Sacksonville" is back! Nine sacks of Mariota (3 by Campbell). Bronco defense still has yet to record a sack or force a turn over. First 0-3 start since '99. That's 20 years, folks. Fangio is 1st Bronco coach to start a career 0-3. |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks -5 v. Cardinals | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Russell Wilson vs Russell Wilson 2.0. Cards: exactly 1 win in their last 17 games vs teams other than the Niners (1-15-1). Three punts & 2 picks in their last 5 drives in lopsided loss to the Panthers. Chandler Jones: 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, fumble recovery. Seahawks are in off their first September home loss under Pete Carroll. Were 15-0 since '10 entering their battle with the Brees-less Saints. Wilson: 32-of-50 for 406 yards (2 TDs). Dominated New Orleans, statwise: 515-265 total yards & 26-15 in first downs. |
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09-29-19 | Chiefs -7 v. Lions | 34-30 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Look who's undefeated. Yes, Lions are 2-0-1, but you have to give them their due. Best start since '11. And first time winning back-to-back games since '17. Upset of the Eagles has to be highlighted by 3 Wentz sacks. Third road games in 4 weeks for the Chiefs. Check Mahomes: 27-of-37 for 374 yards & 3 TDs: 18, 83, & 14 yarders. No picks. He now has 13 games of a least 300 yards in hit first 20 games, breaking Kurt Warner's record |
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09-29-19 | Panthers v. Texans -4 | 16-10 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units -Great comeback win for the Texans in L.A., down 10 at the half, scoring the next 20 points. Five sacks for Houston, 2 of them by JJ Watt. Watson: 25-of-34 for 351 yards & 3 TDs (16, 15, & 53 yarders). Talk about a franchise QB. He's something else. Panthers scraped the demons with 38-20 rout of Cards (173-121 rushing yards & 240-127 passing yards edges). Allen: 19-of-26, 261 yards & 4 TDs. Fourth QB in Panther history with 4+ TDs & no INTs (Beuerlein, Delhome, & Cam). Carolina's most points in a road game since '16. And how about that "D", sacking Heisman winner Kylar Murray 8 times. |
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09-29-19 | Chargers -14 v. Dolphins | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You gotta feel for the Dolphins at this point. Have scored 16 points, while allowing 18 TDs this season. And no, that's not a misprint. Adds up to a 133-16 point deficit. First team since '08 Rams to lose each of its first 3 games of the season by 20+ points. They need Brady & Belichick to retire ASAP. Chargers with a losing record thru 3 games for the 5th straight year. Started 1-2 last year, before going 11-2 the rest of the way. 209 straight starts for Rivers, tying Eli for 2nd longest in NFL history, & he is in off another 318 passing yards & 2 TDs (31-of-46). He ages extremely well. |
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09-23-19 | Bears -5 v. Redskins | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: Units 'Skins have now lost five straight home openers. Were out rushed, 213-47, by Dallas, but note Adrian Peterson's 107th career rushing TD, passing Jim Brown for 5th all-time. Bears were spread darlings a year ago: 12-5 ATS (12-4 during the regular season), but went down by ½ point, after taking Denver at the gun. Chicago now has exactly 1 TD on 21 drives this season. But maybe they've found their kicker in Pineiro. Washington has now lost 5 straight home openers. Little hope for the Skins |
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09-22-19 | Rams -3.5 v. Browns | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Back-to-back prime time games for the Browns. The Rams have now won 15 of their last 18 road games, including the playoffs. Goff last week: 19-of-28 for 283 yards, a TD pass, as well as a rushing TD. Gurley another TD. That's his 42nd TD since 2017: the most in the NFL. Rams are 4-1 ATS vs the Browns, while McVay is 8-1 ATS off a SU/ATS win vs an opponent off a road game, as well as 9-1 ATS off a pair of SU wins. Browns are 1-8 as HDs vs .600+ foes. Cleveland is off Monday nighter |
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09-22-19 | Saints v. Seahawks -4.5 | 33-27 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hard to believe that it was 9 yrs ago, when "Beast Mode" had that incredible 67-yard TD run over the Saints in Wild Card. Seahawks were 10-point home dogs in that one ,& won 41-36. The status of Brees' thumb is of ultimate concern for New Orleans, & the NFL, quite frankly. Couldn't even pick up a ball with that damaged digit. First 2-0 start for Seattle since 2013. Wilson last week: 29-of-35 for 300 passing yards, 3 TDs, & 22 rushing yards. Since last year, he has 41 TD passes, & 7 Interceptions. Seahawks: 150+ rushing yards in 13 of their last 16 games |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No points for the Raiders in their last 9 possessions in 28-10 loss to KC, & have now lost 9-of-10 to the Chiefs. Carr just 198 passing yards & 1 touchdown with 2 interceptions, although passing Ken Stabler for most passing yards in Raider history. Check Viking "D" allowing TDs in their first 3 possessions. Cousins: 2 picks last week. His record: 0-17 in those tilts. Bounce back. |
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09-22-19 | Jets v. Patriots -21 | 14-30 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pats have now outscored opponents, 76-3 this season. Three straight games without allowing a TD, first time Belichick has ever done that. It's the best point differential (+73) thru 2 games since the '75 Redskins. And 2nd biggest shutout win for Brady/Belichick era. Obviously can't continue, but bucking them seems fruitless. Pats are 3-0 ATS hosting the Jets, & a splendid 13-2 ATS off Miami. |
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09-22-19 | Dolphins v. Cowboys -22 | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems NFL spreads are reaching new heights, with this a prime example: 3 TDs. First 2-0 start for 'Boys since '15. Dak has been superb. Check 26-of-30, 269 yards, 3 TDs, 1 pick, & 69 rushing yards. His 34 regular season wins since '16 are the second most in the NFL to Brady's 37. Zeke another 111 rushing yards & a TD. Dallas has now won 6 straight division games for the first time since '98-'99. What is going on in Miami, being outscored 102-10 this season. First team to lose consecutive game by 40+ points since '61 Raiders. |
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09-16-19 | Browns -6.5 v. Jets | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I had the Titans as play last week in their 43-13 annihilation of these Browns, who looked anything but the up-&-coming franchise, that 2018 foresaw. Quite an embarrassing performance. First of four prime time occasions for Cleveland this year, after just 11 times previous 10 years. In off their most penalty yards since 1951. Jets did themselves no favors, in blowing 16-0 lead in 4th vs the Bills, & now 1-8 when Darnold throws less than 2 TDs. Much of the team's optimism was based on the expected progress of Darnold, but his illness paves the way for Trevor Siemian to make his first start since 2017 with Denver. It continued a dismal week for the Jets, who saw linebacker C.J. Mosley exit the season opener with a groin injury and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa (neck) placed on season-ending injured reserve. Browns learned their lesson last week |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | 28-10 | Win | 101 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Double poison for the Raiders here, as they are in off their Monday war with the Broncos, while the Chiefs, under Reid, are possibly the top streak team in the NFL, thereby signalling another solid win. Fifth straight 1-0 start for the Chiefs, although KC fans were holding their collective breath, after Mahomes hobbled off the field early in that one. His first quarter stats: 8-of-9 for 211 yards & 2 TDs (ended up with 378 passing yards, 75.8%, & 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. Raiders 1-6 ATS off Denver, 2-10 ATS hosting foes off 35+ points. |
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09-15-19 | 49ers v. Bengals | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Opening day heartbreak is quite normal for the Bengals, losing despite a career day for Dalton (35-of-51 for 418 yards & 2 touchdowns with 0 interceptions). Thus the biggest opening day upset didn't occur. This is final of 3 former Super Bowl match ups, a mere 39 & 31 years ago. Niners had a 295-256 yard deficit in their win over the Bucs, with 4 takeaways, with RB Coleman leaving the game in the 3rd quarter. The Bengals are 11-2 ATS in September games vs the AFC. |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens -13 | 17-23 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two of last three Heisman winners meet here (Jackson in '16, Murray in '18). Cards scored 21 straight points in the 4th quarter & OT vs the Lions for the 24-24 tie. Murray's debut: 29-of-54, 308 yards, & touchdowns with 1 interception. Larry Fitzgerald is an absolute marvel (8 grabs, 114 yards, & huge 45-yard diving catch in OT). For the Ravens & their demolition of the Dolphins, it was Jackson at his best. First half: 10-of-11, 210 yards, 4 TDs. Check 33-12 first down, 643-200, & 40:07-19:53 time edges. Jackson: 324 passing yards & 5 touchdowns with 0 interctions. Another rout. |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -101 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Did the Steelers lay an egg in Foxboro, or what, managing only 3 points (2nd straight team that the Pats held to a FG). Remember the Super Bowl? Ben: 27-of 47, for 276 yards, but 0 touchdowns with 1 interception. A 20-0 deficit at the half, in 33-3 final. Many a Seahawk fan believes that the refs did them no favors vs the Steelers in Super Bowl XL. That was 14 years ago, & Ben was the QB for Pitt. Seahawks got the win over Cincy, but note a 12-22 first down deficit, with 3 takeaways the key. Seattle is 0-8 as an AFC road dog of less than 7½ points as well as 0-5 in their last five games in Week 2 and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in September. . |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans has dropped five straight season openers for SU and ATS and draws a tough matchup in the Texans, who captured the AFC South in 2018 and revamped their roster with a series of notable moves on cut-down weekend, including trading away former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney. QB Watson is a gamer, meaning he steps up for big games. With Andrew Luck suddenly out of football the door is open for the Texas to take the division. |
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09-08-19 | Bengals +10.5 v. Seahawks | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The "Legion of Boom" is officially over, but man, they were something else (Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Browner, Thurman, & Maxwell). Made playoffs 7 of last 9 seasons, under Pete Carroll, & seems all the weight is now on QB Wilson. Bengals' new HC, Taylor takes over for Marvin Lewis, who led them for 16 years. But when you go 0-7 in playoffs, only so much patience. Despite it all, Cincy is 17-8-3 ATS in the month of Sept. |
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09-08-19 | Titans +6 v. Browns | 43-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The expectations are extremely high, as far as the Browns are concerned, as they captured the imagination of the NFL, with their vast improvement, coming from a combined 2-44 SU run, to last year's 7-8-1 record. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield, of course, was the catalyst. And his worth has actually risen, with the addition of HC Kitchens, WR Beckham, & RB Hunt, only increasing their expectations. But Titans, with a healthy Mariota, are a sneaky good outfit (got to divisional playoffs in '17). No pushovers. And their "D" line has improved. |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rams were just a few plays from being the defending Super Bowl champs, despite posting a mere 3 points. That impressive "D", who held the Pats to 13 points, has added Eric Weddle & Clay Matthews. Could work wonders with Wade Phillips' aggressive defensive philosophy. The #1 question with Panthers, of course is status of Cam's throwing shoulder. Losing LB Davis & DE Peppers, however, can't help. Rams the play. |
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09-08-19 | Ravens -6.5 v. Dolphins | 59-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the first time since '07, Joe Flacco will not be under center as the Ravens kick off this season. But this franchise is firmly behind the electric Jackson, who led Baltimore to the playoffs once more, before being ousted at home by the Chargers. Not only did they lose a veteran on "O", also Weddle, who has been replaced by Earl Thomas. New coaching regime for the Fins. Now 24 different AFC East head coaches since Belichick started dominating the division. Ravens are 8-0 ATS vs Miami. |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears -3 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This matchup was Khalil Mack's coming out party, as a Bear, when he completely dominated that SNF match up vs the Pack, injuring Rodgers in the process. Matt LaFleur takes over as Green Bay head coach, as not only did Packers lose McCarthy, but also veterans Matthews & Cobb. However, GB is always in the hunt with a healthy Aaron. Bears: 12-5 SU & ATS in '17, falling victim to Nick Foles' January magic. Have all the ingredients to continue up ticking |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2.5 v. Rams | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 237 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, it sounds like a broken record, but the dynasty that Belichick & Brady have established with the Pats won't be equalled. Five Super Bowl wins since '01, all with Tom under center (only QB to win 5), & now on the brink of six. The most impressive unit on the field has to be the Pats' offensive line, anchored by Brown, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, & Cannon, with sure-handed receivers in Edelman, Hogan, & Gronk. Brilliant slot receivers from Brown, to Welker, Edelman, etc. Brady hasn't been under pressure in his 2 playoff games, but will that end with the Rams' near unstoppable quartet of Donald, Suh, Brockers, & Fowler? The Giants had the luxury of rushing only 4, in their 2 wins over New England (along with a pair of extraordinary receptions). As we've noted previously, the Pats could easily be 8-0 in Super Bowl appearances, but just as easily could be 0-8 (final margins of 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 6, & 8 points). Veteran Brady over youngster Mahomes last week, & that edge just may repeat here, with Goff in only his 3rd year. A Patriot call. |
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01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | 37-31 | Win | 105 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New England lost five times on the road -- three by double digits -- and struggled in December, but put on a clinic against the Los Angeles Chargers a week ago, scoring touchdowns on its first five possessions en route to a 41-28 cakewalk. Brady, who has won five Super Bowl titles and earned game MVP honors four times, threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs in mid-October. Rookie running back Sony Michel rushed for 106 yards and two TDs in the first meeting versus Kansas City and warmed up for the rematch by rumbling for 129 yards and three scores against the Chargers. The clinchers: New England is 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while Kansas City is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games. |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second meeting of the season for these 2 squads, with the Saints taking a 45-35 barn burner on week 6, behind 346 passing yards & 4 TDs (no picks) from Drew, out dueling Goff, who threw for 391 yards (3/1), with a 10-0 windup. Total yards: New Orleans, a 487-483 yard edge. Just 3 punts. Brees a brilliant 28-of-38 last week (8th postseason 300-yd game). The Saints, ala the Patriots, are near invincible as playoff hosts, standing at 6-0 SU with Payton & Brees. Their win over the Eagles marked their first Divisional Playoff win since '09 (won Super Bowl that year), as well as their largest postseason comeback win (trailed Philly 14-0). These 2 teams have been at the pinnacle all season. Plenty of fireworks, with a nod to the Saints. |
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01-13-19 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 95 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eagles were in danger of not even making the playoffs, but that was before the return of Nick Foles, who is 10-2 as a starter since last Dec. And try 4th playoff win as an underdog (3rd most by a starting QB in the Super Bowl Era). As dominant as the Saints are in this building, Brees & Payton are only 2-2 ATS in the Superdome in the playoffs. More than TD spot a bit much. |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | 28-41 | Loss | -103 | 91 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Patriots can't go on forever, but here they are again. Brady & Belichick simply amazing, clinching a first round bye for the 9th straight season. Not only that, but in a rarity, they've been pegged as 4½ pt chalks vs a team with a better record. Why? Try 15 straight home wins, including playoffs. However, note just an 8-8 ATS playoff home game run since their undefeated 2007 regular season. Chargers in off holding league's best rushing team to 90 rushing yards, with Rivers another solid game (21-of-31). Chargers superb travelers, winning in Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, & Baltimore. With Gronkowski ailing, I have to give Chargers a look. |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 81 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cowboys are in off their first playoff win since '14 Wild Card vs Lions. Took Seattle thanks to another stellar showing from Elliott (137 rushing yards), who is averaging 5.1 yards per rush on 1st down carries, which matches Rams' league-worst 5.1 yards per rush defense. Remember, the Cowboys opened at 3-5, thus on a current 8-1 run. Also, keep in mind that Dallas held Seattle's top-ranked rushing offense (160 yards per game), to just 73 yards (fewest since Week 1). Rams clinched first-round bye for 1st time since '03 (double OT loss to Panthers), & should have RB Gurley back. However, the Rams managed just 2 covers over an 11-game run, before romp wins over patsy Niners & Cards. This one is going to be a fight to the end. |
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01-12-19 | Colts +5.5 v. Chiefs | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chiefs have home field throughout for the first time since '97, when they lost to eventual Super Bowl Champ Denver, 14-10, in this round, & in this stadium. KC's head coach Reid has just an 11-13 SU record in playoffs, thus Colt psyche edge. Indy also 4-0 vs the Chiefs all-time in playoffs. Are on a 10-1 SU run. Check Luck with 191 passing yards & 2 TDs before halftime in last week's win over Houston, while Mack's 148 rushing yards are an Indy playoff record. May approach '13's playoff scoring binge (45-44). I'm calling for the upset in this one. |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -6.5 | 16-15 | Loss | -102 | 30 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The additions of HC Nagy & LB Khalil Mack have turned the Bears completely around. And how about entering this on a 9-1 run, both SU & ATS, while ranking 1st in scoring defense. The Eagles were floundering, until Super Bowl hero Foles again saved the day: 4-1 as Philly's starting QB, and fresh off a superb 25 straight completion streak. However, he is now hurting (upper body), with his availability of utmost concern. The Bears have been there all year, & get my call. |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quick revenge shot for the Chargers, who were smothered by the Ravens just 2 weeks ago, as Baltimore put the clamps on Philip Rivers, not only with 2 sacks, but by also holding him without a TD pass for the first time all season. And he followed that up with a 1/2 showing vs the Broncos. Thus, a 1/4 mark, after entering with a 31/8 TD/INT ratio after week 14. Also a combined 731-474 yard deficit in Chargers' final 2 games, despite their most wins since 2009. Not so with the Ravens, who are peaking at the right time, behind the leadership of rookie QB Jackson, who is 6-1 SU as a starter, with their only miss coming in OT at Kansas City. |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Elliott didn't play in Cowboys' season-ending comeback win over the Giants, but Prescott sure did, with his 4th TD pass, along with the 2-point conversion, in the final 1:12. Seventh win in Dallas' last eight games, coming all the way back from 3-5 start, with an accompanying 6-1-1 ATS run. The Seahawks also smoking (9-3-2 LA, off a 2-3 start). Wilson a super 34/6, but he has been sacked 51 times. Many NFL experts are calling the Dallas Cowboys the weakest of the 12 teams in the playoffs. Seems a bit harsh after they held off the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. The Cowboys were 7-1 at home and 9-3 in the conference. The Seattle Seahawks were 4-4 on the road. Dallas gets revenge. |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans | 21-7 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have been superb, after horrible starts, as Texans became first team since '92 Chargers to win division, after an 0-3 start, while the Colts are one of only two teams to make the playoffs, after a 1-5 start. Indianapolis has scored 23+ points in 11 of its last 12 games, while Houston is on an 11-2 SU run, as well as a 9-2-2 ATS run. Houston is playing at home which will give them an advantage. Houston was 6-2 at home and 4-2 in the division. The Colts were only 4-4 on the road. |
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12-30-18 | Colts -170 v. Titans | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units This game will decide the #6 seed in the AFC playoffs. And what a game it shapes up to be, as the Titans have won 4 straight, while the Colts have won 8-of-9 (6-0 loss to Jacksonville), & scoring 23+ points in all but 3 games. When the season started, many wondered if Luck would ever play again. Well, try 4,308 passing yards & 36 TDs (just 13 interceptions), with the Colts at 27 points per game. Despite these teams having the same records, Indianapolis has a point differential of +73 while Tennessee's is +23. |
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12-30-18 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -13 | 24-27 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the crazy world that is the NFL, anything can happen, with the Cardinals a prime example this season, with 34-0, 45-10, & 45-10 wipe out losses followed by covers of 2, 5, & 17 points vs the Bears, the 49ers, & the Packers. Outside of the fact that they catch the Seahawks off their thrilling upset of the Chiefs, it just doesn't seem feasible. Seattle needs it, entering on a current 8-2-2 ATS run, with a 102-54 point edge in its last 3 home games. Cardinals on a 1-5 spread slide, with an 88-26 point deficit in their last 3 contests. |
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12-30-18 | Eagles -7 v. Redskins | 24-0 | Win | 102 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here they come. Does anyone want to play these guys in the playoffs? Having the reigning Super Bowl MVP back under center is just what this team needed. Won a classic vs the Texans last week, on that last-second field goal, after blowing a 13-point 4th quarter edge, with Foles simply superb. Check 471 passing yards & 4 TDs, in leading the Eagles to a 519-371 yard edge. You gotta hand it to Gruden & his players for hanging in there, after losing their top 2 QBs at such a crucial point in the year (3 if you count Sanchez). But it ends today. |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars v. Texans -6.5 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No doubt, the Texans will have one eye on the Patriot/Jet game, as they are tied with the Pats at 10-5. Shows what a healthy Watson can do, despite coming up just short in comeback effort at Philly, losing at the gun, after a pair of Deshaun TD passes in the last 4:41. The Jags & Marrone would love to find the magic from last year & knock one of their rivals out of the coveted first round bye. Doubt it, even though they dominated the Dolphins in Miami last week. Texans are 10-2 SU, as well as 8-2-2 ATS, while Jaguars are 2-9 SU, & 3-7-1 ATS. And the host is 8-3 ATS in Jag games. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Broncos came to the Bay Area 2 weeks ago, & gave up a 20-0 first half deficit they couldn't overcome. Because of that, no playoffs for Denver since they won Super Bowl 50 three years ago. Injuries finally caught up. Beat the Chargers & Steelers, and lost to the 49ers & Browns. Go figure. Oakland has lost 6 straight division games. Last week, Carr was 21-of-38, with a TD & no interceptions for 9th straight game (301 attempts): 9/0 in his last 5 games. Now 11+ Charger losses for the first time since '14. Call the upset. |
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12-23-18 | Rams -14 v. Cardinals | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Time for the Rams to turn it around. Seems strange to be saying that about an 11-3 team. But for all of their success, the fact is that they are on a 2-7-1 spread run, with just a 308-276 point edge. And they have a 45-29 point deficit the past 2 weeks. Goff: 2 picks in loss to the Eagles, & now just 27/13 for the year. Are in a battle with the Saints for home field advantage through the playoffs, so a return to earlier form is foremost in McVay's mind. Worst home start (1-6) for Cards, since '57, as the Chicago Cardinals, and doesn't get any better |
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12-23-18 | Texans +2.5 v. Eagles | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No, the Eagles are far from finished, with current 3-1 run taking them to within a game of the Cowboys. Foles did the job at the Rams (270 passing yards, 77.4%). That pushes the dog edge to 14-7 ATS in Philly games. Texans have won 10-of-11 SU, with accompanying 7-2-1 run. And they've covered 5 of their last 6 road games. Watson last week: 22-of-28 for 294 yards, & 2 TDs. |
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cowboys don't fool around. From a 5-0 SU/ATS run (+34½ points vs spread), to their first shutout loss in 15 years, 23-0, with only 4 catches for 32 yards from Cooper, a week after 217 & 3 TDs vs Philly. And note Dak coming from 455 passing yards to just 208. And a rushing "D" from 66 yards per game in their previous 5 games, to 179 at Indy. Six straight road losses for the Bucs, after shocking the Saints in their opener. Winston has now lost his last 11 road starts, & Tampa has been eliminated from the playoffs. Dallas bounce backer |
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12-23-18 | Bills v. Patriots -13 | 12-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thirteen straight home wins for the Pats, including playoffs, & have now won 48 of their last 54 home games. Didn't score a TD after their 3rd snap in Pittsburgh last week (63-yard Brady TD pass), with just 3 points in their final 8 drives, as 14 penalties for 106 yards (most since '14) did them in. Need a win, or a Miami loss, for 10th straight AFC East title. Bills are owned by this team & this player, as Brady is 29-3 SU vs Buffalo. Allen won for the 3rd time this year, when Bills are tied or behind, in the 4th. Still no contest |
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12-22-18 | Ravens +4.5 v. Chargers | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a win for Bolts at KC, with 2 TDs in final 3:49, plus the 2-pointer to win it. First time a team has won on a last-second 2-point conversion since the Vikings in '02. That snapped a 9-game losing streak vs the Chiefs. And they did it without Gordon. Ravens have rushed for over 200 yards 4-of-5 games with Jackson under center. First team since '79 Steelers to rush for 190+ yards 5 straight games. Baltimore took 4 of those 5. This could be a preview of a possible January match. Take the points. |
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12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | 12-9 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Third straight road game for the Saints, who came up big for us last week in Tampa, with a 25-0 2nd half edge, & though Drew was only 1/1 (31/4 for the year), he was a nice 77.4%. Second straight division title for the Saints, as their defense came up big (4 sacks, & allowing only 81 2nd-half yards). Five straight losses for Panthers (SU & ATS), with McCaffrey their lone bright spot (2 more TDs & 101 total yards). That's 12 TDs in his last 7 games. New Orleans is on a 10-1 ATS run, so not about to call free-falling Panthers' number. |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks -3.5 v. 49ers | 23-26 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Great win for the 49ers, over a Bronco team with everything to play for, snapping a 3-game losing streak in the process. San Francisco is now 6-1 in December, under Shanahan, but also 1-9 vs the NFC West under Shanahan. Check TE Kittle with 7 grabs for 210 yards, including an 85-yd TD last week, the most for the Niners since T.O. in 2000. Seahawks are in off their Monday Nighter with the Vikings, but are on a 7-1-2 ATS run, & have beaten the Niners 10 straight. SanFran "D": 27+ points in 9-of-12. |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Colts | 0-23 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Huge playoff implications here. These 2 squads came up big last week, with the Colts at Houston & the Cowboys in OT over the champs. 'Boys can clinch an NFC East title with a win here, as they now have longest active winning streak in the NFL, with 5 straight. Check Dak with 455 passing yards & 3 TDs. Zeke 113 rushing yards & 79 yards receiving. Cooper: 217 receiving yards & 3 TDs. Dallas is 9-1-1 ATS as an AFC road dog of less than 8 points. Upset |
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12-16-18 | Titans v. Giants +1.5 | 17-0 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a night for Henry, in Titan rout of Tampa, with 238 rushing yards on 16 carries, including that 99-yard classic. He ended up with 4 TDs (3, 99, 16, 54 yards), tying franchise record held by Earl Campbell & Lorenz White. No player in the Super Bowl era rushed for 200+ yards, & 4+ TDs on less than 21 carries. Giants completely dominated decimated Redskins (up 40-0), & are on a 5-0 ATS run, while averaging 31.4 points per game. Another 170 rushing yards from Barkley on only 16 carries. Titans have a 72-17 point deficit in their L2 road games |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | 13-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Lions are in off their fewest points allowed since 2 14, in 17-3 win over the mighty Cards, although posting just 1 offensive TD ("pick-6"). Bills let another one get away in the 4th quarter vs the Jets. Over their past two games, the Bills have 48-30 first down, 376-138 rushing yard , & 783-423 total yard edges, but 21-17 & 27-23 losses to show for their troubles. Their 2nd ranked defense should be able to put the clamps on a Lion offense that is averaging 16.3 points per game in their last 7 games |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Seattle Seahawks saw any hopes of winning the NFC West evaporate when the division-rival Los Angeles Rams opened the season 8-0. The Seahawks' playoff chances also appeared to take a major hit after back-to-back losses to both Los Angeles teams, but they have bounced back and carry a three-game winning streak into tonight's contest against the visiting Minnesota Vikings. Seattle posted three-point victories over Green Bay and Carolina before routing San Francisco last week to vault into the fifth playoff spot in the NFC - one-half game ahead of Minnesota. Minnesota a horrible 0-7 ATS on the road on a Monday, while Seattle is 7-1 as a Monday single digit favorite. I'll back the squad which is currently on 7-1-2 run. |
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12-09-18 | Broncos -3 v. 49ers | 14-20 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Three straight wins for the Broncos. As long as Keenum doesn't throw a pick, they win. Another stellar performance from RB Lindsay: 157 yards (career-high), & 2 more TDs (6 & 65 yards). He now has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage: first undrafted rookie in franchise history to do that. First 3-game winning streak for Vance Joseph (+8 turn overs in those 3). Four straight seasons with 10+ losses for first time in Niner history, with a 3-32 record in last 35 games without Garoppolo. Broncos still alive in Wild Card chase |
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12-09-18 | Patriots v. Dolphins +9 | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pats have clinched a winning record for the 18th straight season. And have won 8 of their last 9 outings. What else is new? Brady: now 579 TD passes, tying him with Manning for most of all time. And try 250 wins for Belichick as Pats HC. Dolphins in off lucky win over Bills, although Tannehill did toss 3 TD passes. That's 8 straight home wins for Miami, with him at the controls. Host is on a 14-3-1 ATS run in Dolphin games. And another |
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12-09-18 | Colts v. Texans -4 | 24-21 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colts were at 34.2 points per game in 6 games, previous to 6-0 loss to the Jags, snapping their 5-game winning streak. Now must take on a Texan team which has won 9 straight, after an 0-3 start. Amazing. Were up 23-0 at the half vs the Browns, with Watson now at 11 TDs & just 2 picks in his last 5 games. Texans are also +54½ points in their last 6 games, & enjoy a 3-game lead over the Colts & Titans. Would you believe that the Colts are 0-10 ATS as a .500+ avenging road dog vs an opponent off 2 SU wins. |
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12-09-18 | Ravens v. Chiefs -6 | 24-27 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Three straight wins for the Ravens, on heels of 3-game slide, dominating the Falcons (366-131 total yards), holding Atlanta to 34 rushing yards, while sacking Ryan 3 times. Jackson only 125 passing yards, but another rushing TD in his first road start. Now just ½ game behind Pitt. KC in off big win, after releasing star RB Hunt. Mahomes: another 4 TD passes, & now at 41/10. Chiefs at 30+ points 10-of-12 games (26 & 27 points in other 2). KC is 5-2 ATS vs Baltimore, while the Ravens are 1-9 ATS non-division dogs of 6+ points. |
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12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Champs can breathe a sigh of relief after last-minute win vs the Giants. That's 9-of-10 vs the Giants. An impressive 5-minute game-winning drive by Wentz & Co to get that "W" Note that the Eagles are scoreless in the first quarter in 9 of their 11 games this season. McCoy's 3 picks killed the Redskins on Thanksgiving, but if they had called that "helmet-to-helmet" that Reed received, with 1:30 left, you never know. The dog is 15-4 ATS in Eagle contests while the 'Skins covered their previous road game by 16 points. |
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11-25-18 | Packers +3.5 v. Vikings | 17-24 | Loss | -120 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is just 9-15-1 SU in division games in his NFL career, including 2-7-1 SU and 2-8 ATS the last ten games. With the Packers currently the No. 9 seed in the NFL playoff picture, and the Vikings the No. 6 seed, this becomes do-or die time for Mr. Rodgers. Green Bay QB Rodgers is 42-15-1 SU and 38-20 ATS in his career in division games, going 17-4 SUATS in division games when coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS away. |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins v. Colts -9 | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 119 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Third straight home game for the Colts. Luck is lighting it up: 23-of-29 for 297 yards & 3 TDs vs the Titans (QB rating of 143.8). He is now an eye-popping 29/9. And check Hilton with 9 catches for 155 yards & 2 TDs. And the 210th regular-season win of Vinatieri's career: an NFL record, breaking George Blanda's record. It's all about home field advantage, as far as Miami is concerned. Home team is 7-1 & 13-3 ATS in Dolphin games. Thus Miami is 0-5 ATS away, by 49½ points, allowing 34.5 points per game in its last 4 road games. Any questions? |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -109 | 116 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game,4-1 in Seahawks last 5 road games, and 13-6 in Seahawks last 19 vs. NFC. While the under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Carolina. |
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11-25-18 | Browns v. Bengals UNDER 47.5 | 35-20 | Loss | -109 | 116 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and 13-6 in Browns last 19 games in November. While the 9-8 in Bengals last 27 games following a ATS win, 14-6 in Bengals last 20 vs. a team with a losing record, and 14-6 in Bengals last 20 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. |
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11-25-18 | Browns +3 v. Bengals | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Cincinnati minus 3, and is still minus 3. There is no love lost between these 2 intra-state rivals. There are a few teams which are in the mix for the most improved, with these Browns definitely one of those outfits. Sure, just a 3-6-1 mark, but the could easily read 7-3, with three 3-pt losses, & that opening day tie with the Steelers. Finally some stability at QB, with emergence if rookie Mayfield: 1,984 yards, 62%, & 13 touchdowns with 7 interceptions. Bengals are falling fast, with current 1-4 SU & ATS run, after opening at 4-1, as Dalton has thrown 10 picks, & wide receiver Green just week-to-week. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints -13 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Who are these guys? The scary thing is that the Saints actually took it easy on the Eagles. Nine straight wins for this machine. Can anyone beat them in this building in January? Try 564 yards vs Philadelphia, & have scored at least 40 points for the sixth time this season. Brees putting up video game numbers, every week (another 363 yards & 4 TDs last week). And he now has 23 games with at least 4 TD passes & no interceptions. He now stands at 25 TDs & 1 pick. And how about 77%! Brutal home loss for Falcons vs Cowboys last week, & now they have to face this team. Until it all changes stay with the Saints. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Rams | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oh, what a game this should be, with the 2 premier NFL squads going at it. Both are 9-1 straight up, with those setbacks coming by just 3 & 10 points (late 10-0 deficit) to the mighty Patriots & Saints. I've always extended such contests to a possible upcoming February match, with this one definitely in that category. Check the passing stats. Right, Mahomes & Goff sit atop the passing column, with 3,150 yards (31/7) & 3,154 yards (22/6) respectively. RBs Gurley & Hunt, etc. Electrifying. Reid as a dog is key |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints -7.5 | 7-48 | Win | 103 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No letup in sight for this train. Saints have won 8 straight games, covering their last 7 Home or away. Chalk or dog. Or any combination thereof. Makes little difference. Check 5 TDs in their first 5 possessions vs the Bengals. Only 3 incompletions for Brees (22-of-25: 88%), with 5 total TDs. Another? Okay, how about 21 first downs by halftime! By the way, Drew is now 21/1 & 77.3%. Eagles were playing catch up all night in their home loss to the Cowboys, unable to stop a team which has been struggling, offensively. So 3 straight home losses for defending champions. Philly is 2-12 ATS vs opposition off 2+ SU/ATS wins. Simply can't buck the Saints |
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11-18-18 | Texans -2.5 v. Redskins | 23-21 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texans breathed a huge sigh of relief before their bye week, when that field goal by the Broncos went wide right, thereby overcoming a missed PAT that put them in that position. That's 6 straight wins for Houston, taking up where they left off with Watson's season-ending injury last year. His status is firmly established: now has 36 career TD passes, with the only QBs to get there quicker: Marino & Warner. 'Skins took advantage of Bucs' red zone ineptitude last week (now +11 in all-important TO ratio). Texans 5-0 ATS as road favorites of 3 points or less. |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Falcons | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The home side will be more comfortable, today, but Dallas may have turned the corner Sunday with a more aggressive offensive posture, acting as if they weren’t afraid of making errors of commission, starting well, maintaining competitive position throughout and working behind a clean game from Dak Prescott and 151 rushing yards from Zeke Elliott to out-finish the favored Eagles at the Linc. Obtaining Amari Cooper (6 receptions, for 75 yards) looks to have been a very good idea, if an expensive one. Cowboys may be two games behind the Redskins, but will have their chance against them, on Thanksgiving. |