Rating: 2 Units

Starter Teddy Bridgewater is out, enter Drew Lock. The former starter knows that he is 11-5 ATS in starts with the Broncos when Denver is coming off a loss, including 8-1 ATS from Game Ten out. The Broncos hit the road in the first of three straight travelers sporting a 7-2 ATS mark in these games. Meanwhile, the Raiders return home after Monday’s makeshift game in Cleveland, where they edged the Browns 16-14, to keep their playoff hopes alive. The problem is the Black-and-Silver are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS at Allegiant Stadium, including 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when hosting .500 or greater opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

Baltimore was a team with 17 players on injured reserve, five more on the COVID list, plus four more starters who were neither on IR or COVID-IR but were inactive. By the end of Sunday’s game, six of their top seven corners from the start of the season were gone, so perhaps playing for the win, rather than going up against Aaron Rodgers in overtime was the lesser of two evils. Cincinnati returns home off a gutsy 5-point win at Denver. As a result, they hold down the top spot in the AFC North, and would play Indianapolis should the playoffs begin this week. The problem for the Bengals today, though, is their feeble 7-10 SU and 6-11 ATS mark as division home chalk of fewer than 7 points, as well as QB Joe Burrow’s 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS mark in the NFL when Cincinnati is coming off a win. And with that it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: Baltimore is 13-6-1 ATS as a division road dog under head coach John Harbaugh, including 9-0 ATS in its last nine games.

Rating: 3 Units

Los Angeles’ last 3 games have averaged a combined 61.0 ppg, and four of their last 6 games have totaled 51 or more. Houston is off their best offensive output of the year (30 pts), and QB Davis Mills is airing it out bigtime as of late (79 pass attempts L2G). With LA laying a lot of points on the non-division road (-10.5 to -11), consider that less than ( pts (CHARGERS) have gone 90% OVER (9-1 O/U) in the last 3 years when the OU line is 48 or less points. In addition,  last Thursday, the Chargers lost at home to division rival Kansas City and know that all NFL teams off a Thursday division home loss (CHARGERS), when the OU line is in the range of > 42 and < 52 points is 28-9-1 O/U All-Time / 9-1-1 O/U L5 years.

Rating: 2 Units

Jared Goff’s best effort of the season may prevent Detroit from landing Kenny Pickett. Perhaps this performance will persuade the team to keep him for one more year. Goff misfired just five times, going 21-of-26 for 216 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s hair-raising 30-12 win over Arizona as 13-point home underdogs. It was just the 8th time since 1980 that a home dog of that size has managed to pull the rug out on its pricey guest. And for what it’s worth, six of those seven teams hit the road in their next contest where they went 4-1-1 ATS. With that we call in the Falcons, a team that is 0-9 ITS (In The Stats) since their Bye week in October. In addition, Nate Davis of the USA TODAY reports that the Lions’ upset win over Arizona marked just the third time in the Super Bowl era that a team with fewer than two wins beat a 10 win-team. Detroit’s 4.6 Yards Per Rush is its highest since 1997, and it fits like a glove into Atlanta’s 4.3 YPG Rush Defense.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bolts left a bushel full of points off the scoreboard, while ‘analytically’ deciding to go for the jugular on 4th downs instead of taking the 3-point layups. Here’s hoping a wave of common sense hits the Chargers like Omicron before their playoff hopes suddenly need a 9-1-1 booster shot. The good news today is the Chargers are 31-12 SU and 33-8-2 ATS all time versus the AFC South, including 20-3-2 ATS since 2009. The other is Houston’s recent 0-4 ATS ledger against the AFC West as well as its 1-7 SUATS mark at home in games when coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Dallas held Glennon to a 24.8 passer rating and forced three picks last week as he is 6-25 in his NFL career starts, including 1-16 in his last seventeen. Things were so bad for the G-Men last week that WR Kenny Golladay led the team in receiving with three catches for 53 yards, while Sterling Shepard tore his Achilles on the fi nal drive of the game when he collapsed on a non-contact injury. Ouch. With the Eagles on the road to recovery following their 2-5 start to the season, and anxious to avenge an ugly 13-7 loss at New York a month ago, we only have eyes on the ostracized birds today as they improve to 5-1-1 ATS in the second of consecutive division bouts.

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Indianapolis reversed a 0-3 start into the No. 5 seed in the current AFC playoff chase thanks to 4-1 SUATS skein after taking on the latest ‘Hard Knocks II’ role Thanksgiving Week, while snapping New England’s season best 7-game win streak last week. And they did it in spite of QB Carson Wentz’s immense struggles as potential league MVP RB Jonathan Taylor dashed for 170 yards on 29 attempts, including a 67-yard scamper for a score. Given head coach Frank Reich’s 10-4 SU mark from Game Thirteen out during the regular season, and Indy’s 8-3 SUATS all time mark against NFC West foes coming off consecutive losses, the points become the play here today. Also consider that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 3-8 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus winning foes, including 0-8 SUATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. To cap it all off, consider that playing against any regular season NFL home pick or favorite on Saturday coming off a loss if they lost to the spread by 17 or more points in the loss is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

The Vikings last 10 games have been decided by 8 or fewer points. And while it appears the 4-9 Bears look like they’ve gone into early hibernation, the fact remains they were still mathematically alive in the playoff race entering this weekend. Given Minny’s not so mighty 1-10 ATS record in its last eleven Monday Night road games, we’ll have our hand out looking to take as many points as we can get tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Baltimore loss vs Green Bay yesterday would vault Cleveland into first place in the AFC North, while also being the No. 4 seed in the current NFL playoff picture, with a win tonight. They will likely have to get by without the services of RB Kareem Hunt (ankle), but D’Ernest Johnson has filled in admirably during his frequent absences this campaign. Las Vegas’ 0-5 SUATS record the past three seasons in games after tackling Kansas City works in Cleveland’s favor, as does the Raiders rotten 1-4-1 ATS record in this series when coming off consecutive losses. Don’t look for the Browns to blow this golden opportunity.

Rating: 3 Units

Brady is just 2-4 ATS at home in his career in division games when coming off a SUATS home win, including 0-3 ATS against foes coming off a win. In addition, the Bucs bring a sour 0-4 ATS mark into this fray in the first of consecutive division duke-outs. On the opposite side of the field, the Saints kept their playoff hopes alive with a big win at the Jets last week, knowing they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division roadies. The Saints’ offense was a Sean Payton special, with all Taysom Hill runs and short passes and Alvin Kamara touches. Hill, despite a broken middle finger, misfired on just six occasions, as he seldom went downfield. He finished 15-of-21 for 175 yards, but did most of his damage on the ground. He scrambled 11 times for 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Kamara, meanwhile, rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown on 27 attempts. He also caught four passes for 25 receiving yards. That’s what you get with the Saints these days. Tie in Payton’s 47-26-3 ATS all-time dog log, including 21-4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off consecutive wins, and we’ve suddenly got the makings a live, double-digit division dog tonight. We seal the deal knowing that playing on any NFL away team in a division game on Sunday Night that is coming off a win of more than 10 points if they’re facing an opponent coming off a pair of wins who won 10 or more games last year is 11-1-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Double digit home favs been Money in the Bank for under bettors as of late as witnessed by the fact that all GAME 3 > NFL home favorites of -10 > points (Bucs vs Saints), when the OU line is > 44 points. In the past two years, is o 77% UNDERS (7-24 O/U).

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Upset of the Day

The suddenly listless Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first quarter in each of their last 7 games, but if you saw the second half of the Ravens-Browns contest, you’ll know why we think they’ve still got some fight left. That was when backup QB Tyler Huntley sparked Baltimore to a near-win at Cleveland, engineering a 19-point second half comeback that fell two-points short in the Ravens’ 24-22 loss at the Dawg Pound. Consider as well that playing on any NFL home dog of more than 3 points during the second-half of the season with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and they are facing an opponent with at least one loss on the season who is coming off a win of 14 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating; 2 Units

Sunday’s late afternoon ‘Do or Die’ game in the Rocky Mountains features the 7-6 Bengals taking on the 7-6 Broncos... with the loser probably eliminated from post-season play. It looks like both teams will be going all out in a Must-Win contest (for both). So that means we’ll be Going over in this Cincinnati/Denver game. Consider that All Week 9 > non-division games when both teams are > .500 on the season (BRONCOS + BENGALS) is 20-5 O/U the last two years.

Rating: 2 Units

Deebo Samuel is practicing fully this week after being hampered in Week 14. Fred Warner, the 49ers' most important defensive player, also is primed for a big game after dealing with an ankle injury.. When the Falcons step up in class, they usually get hammered. Witness their 40-point loss in Dallas, their 25-0 blanking at the hands of New England, and a pair of double-digit defeats to Tampa Bay. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS versus winning teams. The 49ers are putting it all together for a playoff run and should win by double digits.

Rating: 2 Units

 Pittsburgh has been outscored 78-16 in the first half of its past four games. If the Steelers start slowly again, they'll have a hard time coming back against Tennessee's above-average defense. Bud Dupree has been activated and will face his former team. Look for Tennessee to run the ball effectively with D'Onta Foreman -- the Steelers rank 30th in rush defense per DVOA -- as the Titans improve to 6-1 ATS in their last seven as underdogs.

Rating: 3 Units

It looks like a Saturday shootout is in order this week, as the hottest two offenses in the league will be going at each other at Lucas Oil Stadium. That means the over in this week’s PATRIOTS @ COLTS game as we head to late-season Saturday action. In the last two months of play (7 weeks), the host COLTS are the #1 offense in the league (averaging 33.1 ppg) while the visiting PATRIOTS are right behind (#2) at 32.1 ppg. That’s a good start for us. But let’s not forget the historically high-scoring nature of this series as well. The Pats and Colts have gone a perfect 7-0 O/U in the last 7 meetings vs each other, with a gaudy average of 64.4 combined PPG! Consider as well that since 2010, NFL games have gone 8-1 O/U when BOTH teams are off their Bye (COLTS / PATS), and the OU line is 46 or less points.

Rating: 5 UnitNFL Saturday Game of the Month

Bill Belichick is 6-2 SUATS riding a 7-game winning streak, including 4-0 SUATS versus sub .700 foes. He’s also 20-5 on Saturdays, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS during the regular season, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus the Colts with New England, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Indy owns a sub .777 win percentage. Toss in his sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest and his squad suddenly poses a major problem for the born-again Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has forgotten how win in this series, going just 13-34 SU and 14-32-1 ATS overall since 1987, including 2-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in games in which the Pats own the better record. We don’t see anything here being broke, and we’re not about to fix it. Finally, consider that New England head coach Bill Belichick is a sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest, including 11-0 SUATS when facing sub .666 opponents.

Rating: 4 Unit Prime Time Game of the Week

QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SUATS career record on Thursdays into this contest when facing division foes. On the flip side, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays from Game Eleven out.

Rating: 2 Units

Any team with any realistic shot at a Super Bowl needs help from the defense, and it’s worth noting the Cards’ stop-unit has been out-yarded in three of its last five games. The Rams will look to exploit that tonight knowing they are 4-0 SUATS in their last four-division contests after surrendering fewer than 10 points in its last game, as well as 8-1 SUATS the last nine games in this series (the loss being a 37-10 defeat in L.A. in Game Four this season). Given the Redbirds’ ruinous 1-7 ATS mark in its last seven games as a division host, as well as its 2-10 ATS record at home on Monday Nights, and head coach Sean McVay’s 10-5 SUATS on the division road, including 3-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win, which all sets up perfectly knowing that Arizona head coach Kingsbury is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite with the Cardinals, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of fewer than six points.

Rating 3 Units

The oddsmakers have set a fairly high bar for us, with the OU line hovering in the range of 52.5 to 53.0 points (HIGHEST line of the week). At the very least, we can feel confident that we have not one... but TWO very good offenses that should have no problem trading points with each other (both teams averaging 28.0 > PPG this season). The high line in this game is indeed justified, a all NFC home favorites (BUCS) vs an AFC opponent (BILLS), when the OU line is GREATER than (>) 50 points is 16-4-1 O/U since 2015 / 9-1-1 O/U L4 years.

Rating: 4 Unit - Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Kyle Shanahan has developed a broad home-road dichotomy, where he is 22-16 ATS away as opposed to 16-22-1 ATS at home with San Francisco (more on that below). Included in those numbers is a glitzy 7-2 ATS record on the AFC road, including 6-0 ATS the last six contests. Coupled with Cincy’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark under Zac Taylor in games against the NFC West, it paints an imposing picture for the suddenly fractured Bengals. Consider that Shanahan is 11-2 ATS away in non-division games against foes coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Tampa sits atop the NFC South with a four-game lead over all three of their other division rivals. In addition, Buffalo enters on an 8-1-1 ATS win skein on the non-conference road as well as 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in games after coming off a SU favorite Monday Night loss. Yes, Tommy Seven Rings is 31-3 all-tie against Buffalo, but in each of those wins he had The Hoodie whispering in his ear. FYI: He is only 2-2 ATS against Buffalo when the Bills sport a .636 or greater win percentage. Moving to the here and now, though, you may be shocked to learn that Brady is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS during the regular season with the Bucs versus .636 or greater opponents. To cap it off, consider that Tom Brady is 0-5 SUATS as a favorite during the regular season versus .636 or greater foes with Tampa Bay.

Rating: 3 Unit

Sharp bettors already know that the G-Men have gone a league-LOW 6-21-1 OU in the last 2 years (including 3-16 O/U in NON-division play). Not only that, but EACH of New York’s last SEVEN games have gone UNDER ( 0-7 OU / avg margin: -12.1 ppg). To top it all off, there’s a very good chance that they will be starting a QB who wasn’t even on the team 10 short days ago (Jake Fromm). In their last three games, the Giants have scored only 9, 13, and 10 points

Rating: 2 Units

The visiting Cowboys are in the middle of 3 straight road games in a row. All FAVS of 2 > pts in the 2ND of 3 straight road games (Dallas) is 5-18-2 O/U since 87 / 2-10 O/U since 2011 / 0-6 O/U L5Y years. In their last two games, Dallas has allowed 17 pts (vs NOrl) and 36 pts (vs LV). All NFL favorites who allowed 17 < pts and 35 > pts in their last two games (Dallas), when the OU line is < 51 points is 1-8-1 O/U so far THIS season.

Rating: 10 Unit 10* AFC Game of the Year

Baltimore’s loss to Pittsburgh dropped their chances at landing a spot in the postseason to 85%. It all blows to smithereens, though, with a Cleveland win today. However, I we like the Browns’ chances, as teams in Game Thirteen with a .500 record, who were in the playoffs last season, are 18-3 SUATS when seeking revenge. That’s a big number. And so is Baker Mayfield’s 15-7 SU and 14-8 ATS record with the Browns against foes coming off a loss, including 9-1 ATS when not favored by 3 or more points. To cap it off, consider that playing on  6-6 NFL team in Game Thirteen if they were a playoff team last season and are seeking revenge against a .500 or greater opponent that is not coming off a loss of 12 or more points is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 3 Units

Tomlin is 0-5 ATS in his NFL career after upsetting a division rival when facing a non-division foe coming off a SUATS loss. Worse, a loss by Mike Zimmer, and his tenure with Minnesota could be over by season’s end. It’s what happens to coaches who have delivered 2 playoff wins in 8 seasons. Tonight, he’ll look to rely on his 25-7-1 ATS career record in non-division tilts when coming off a loss, including 11-1 ATS versus AFC opponents. And for what it’s worth, Minnesota is also 4-0-1 ATS on Thursdays against non-division opposition coming off a win. Consider that teams who lose to a winless opponent during the second-half of the season are 5-1-1 ATS since 1980 at home in non-division contests the following game.

Rating: 2 Units

Suddenly, the Patriots’ 2-4 start to the season seems like a distant memory as they ride a 6-game win streak entering tonight’s contest. New England is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS when on a six-game-exact win skein since 2007. NFL teams on a 6-0 SUATS-exact win skein are 6-1 SUATS in division games when coming off an ATS win of 14 or more points. That’ a lot for Sean McDermott to digest given the fact that Buffalo is 3-31 SU and 12-21-1-1 ATS against the Pats since 2001, including 2-16 SU and 5-13 ATS home. After its 4-1 SUATS start, Buffalo enters tonight’s game just 3-3 SUATS in its past six contests. With Belichick riding a 9-1 ATS mark in his last ten games as a division road against foes coming off a win, we can’t fade that.

Rating: 2 Units

Featuring two teams playing FANTASTIC defensive football as of late. Kansas
City: only 14.5 ppg allowed L6 games / 1-5 O/U... Denver: 17.2 ppg allowed L5 / perfect 0-5 O/U!...With KC laying Double D’s (-10) in this one, we won't bury the lead. DOUBLE D games = UNDERS. 6-24-2 O/U L2Y: All home favs of -10 > pts with an OU line of 44 > pts (Chiefs). Kansas City comes in well-rested off their Bye Week. And since Game 7, NFL teams AFTER their Bye Week (Chiefs), have gone 3-15 O/U TY.

Rating: 3 Units

Mike Tomlin is 20-7 SU and 17-8-2 ATS in his NFL career after allowing more than 30 points in a contest, including 15-3 SU and 12-4-2 ATS at home.  As a result of Sunday’s 41-10 pummeling, Pittsburgh now resides in last place in the AFC North. There is nothing better than a red-faced angry dog who embarrassed us as a 5* Best Bet last week, especially at home in division games. With that being said, Big Ben is 8-4 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as a home dog in this league. However, to seal the deal consider that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS as a division dog against foes coming off consecutive wins.

Rating: 2 Units

The Seattle Seahawks are the #1 UNDER team in the league this season. Seattle games have gone 1-9-1 O/U TY, with an average of only 39.5 combined PPG. Talk about REGRESSION! Seattle’s offensive numbers are DOWN by -9.2 ppg compared to last year (19.0 ppg vs 28.2 ppg)... and their defensive numbers have IMPROVED by -3.1 ppg (20.5 ppg vs 23.6). It’s no wonder they’ve gone from 51.8 combined ppg to only 39.5 ppg. So we’ll be Going LOW (again) in this week’s Niners @ Seahawks game.

Rating: 3 Units

The Jacksonville Jaguars should be at the top of ALL bettors’ lists, when it comes to favorite UNDER teams. Since an OVER in Game One, the JAGS have gone 1-9 O/U in their last ten games... with an average margin of -11.3 ppg... and have not topped 17 points in SIX straight games. That’s what we call Offensive Futility. It didn’t get any better vs the Falcons last week either (14 total points and QB Lawrence had only 5.4 yards per passing attempt). We’ll keep riding Jaguar UNDERS until the streak is broken.

5* Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Setting the table for the Raiders, is the fact that home teams coming off a Turkey Day win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 1990 when hosting sub .666 foes off win. With the sinners in a three-way tie for second-place in the AFC West, one game behind Kansas City, and currently 5-1 ATS at home coming off a pair of previous home losses – they lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City at Allegiant Stadium last month – it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: NFL teams coming off a SU underdog win on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since 1990 versus a foe coming off a Monday Night game.

Rating: 4 Unit 4* AFC Play of the Day

While on paper it appears the Chargers are wobbling at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS since Bye week, they are actually 4-1 ITS (In The Stats) in those games. They are also 6-1-1 ATS away when coming off an away game. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow appears to be leading the Bengals’ resurgence, yet he is just 2-6 ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4 SUATS against no-division foes. And then there is Cinci’s 2-11 SUATS ledger when coming off a pair of wins-exact. Speaking of which, we sew up the deal with The clincher: Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS since 1980 when coming off consecutive wins after facing Pittsburgh, including 0-5 SUATS in non-division games.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* NFL Upset of the Week

Chicago has out yarded each of its last three opponents, while holding all three foes to less than 300 yards. And then there is this from the WOM (Well Oiled Machine): Game Twelve NFL home teams who were in the playoffs the previous season are 6-1 SUATS since 1990 against opponents coming off a Bye week. And then there is a cold weather team hosting a warm weather team in December. Given Arizona’s 5-13 SU and 6-11-1 ATS all-time mark on the NFC North road. The clincher:  Playing Against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

San Francisco’s last two games have been VERY revealing. They have MASTERED the art of the l-o-n-g, time-consuming offensive drive. Check out how much clock they have eaten lately. In the win over LA, they had a drive of 11+ minutes, 6+ minutes, and 6+ minutes (that led to just 13 total pts). And in the win over the Jaguars, they did even better: A drive of 13+ minutes in the 1st quarter(!), 7.5 minutes, and 6 minutes (that led to 17 total pts). They have thrown the ball just 41 times in TWO games, while running it 86 times! It’s a DOUBLE-whammy: They have taken a LONG time to score... AND kept the opposing offenses off the field. Those huge running numbers should continue this week when they face the league’s WORST rushing defense in the Vikings (allowing 4.8 yards per rush TY). So with that said, it’s UNDER the Total of 48.5 points in the Minnesota / San Francisco game

NFL Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Head coach Sean McVay enters this game knowing he is 4-1 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a loss. And speaking of QB dings, despite battling a toe injury, and losing left tackle Elgton Jenkins to injury, Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s loss at Minnesota, snapping the league’s longest SUATS win skein at 9 this season. The big concern for Rams’ backers is Rodgers’ 41-21-1 ATS career record in games when the Packers are coming off a loss. However, it waters down to 13-11 ATS when he is at home in games with both teams coming off a loss. Cap it off my knowing that playing on any NFL team coming off consecutive SU favorite losses, the last an ATS loss by 12 or more points, if they were a playoff team last year and they are facing a .700 or better opponent is 16-0 ATS since 2006

Rating: 3 Units

Our quest for OVER value in an ‘under the radar’ game takes us to Houston this week, as the TEXANS host the NY JETS. With two of the worst defenses in the league squaring off, POINTS should be PLENTY. I know the Texans haven’t scored > 22 points since Week One, but they have the perfect foe to ‘feast on’ this Holiday Weekend. JETS: #32 overall D (414.3) AND #32 scoring D (32.0 ppg allowed). Not only that, but 39.8 allowed in L5 games! Jumping out at us is Houston’s Home / Away ‘splits’. Texan HOME games (49.5) are averaging +12.3 ppg MORE than their road games (only 37.2) this season. Also in our favor is the fact that the JETS are on a current 6-1 O/U run (+12.2 ppg)... have gone 7-1 O/U as road dogs of 8 > pts L4Y... are 9-1 O/U vs the AFC South... and have averaged 49.8 ppg in their road games this season.

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Play of the Day

A red-faced Ryan Tannehill was intercepted 4 times (3 times in the 4Q) in last week’s humiliating loss to Houston as the Titans were flagged for looking past the Texans in favor of today’s contest. Our QB League database notes that Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as a dog. Note that NFL road dogs coming off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS when taking on a foe coming off a win of 14 or more points. The clincher: Tennessee is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, including 5-0 SUATS this season.

Rating: 5 UnitDivisional Game of the Week

The Steelers are 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS the last 24 games in this series. They are also 9-2 SUATS away in games in which Cincinnati sports the better record, including 5-0 SUATS when the Black and Gold arrives off a SUATS loss. And making things juicier, when Pittsburgh is coming off a loss and facing Cincinnati coming off a win, the Steelers stand 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Queen City, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Also consider that : Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 27-5-1 SU and 22-11 ATS away in Ohio at Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he played his college ball at Miami Oh, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in games in which Pittsburgh owns the lesser record. To finish it off Cincy is 3-7 ATS as a division home favorite while Pitt is 7-1 ATS as a division road dog.

Rating: 2 Units

These 2 solid defenses are allowing only 39.4 combined PPG on the year (Buf 17.6 / NO 21.8). We already know that Thursday home dogs (like the Saints) have gone a perfect 0-5 O/U this season (36.8) ppg. Let’s also not forget that New Orleans has gone 0-9 O/U in their last nine Thursday games since 2013! (39.0). Yes, we’re aware the Saints are off 4 straight ‘Overs’ in a row. However, all GAME 15 < dogs of 10 < pts off 4+ overs (Saints), when the line is 50 < points is 11-27 OU since 2014. Consider as well that all AFC road favs of > 3 pts (Buf) vs any NFC opponent (NOrl), when the OU line is in the range of 38 to 52 points is 4-20 OU since 2013.

Rating: 3 Units

Siemian owns an 88.9 QB Rating in his four starts this season, throwing 8 TDs and 2 INTs. He is also 9-5 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in his NFL home starts, including 4-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss of more than 3 points. More important, the Saints are 5-0 ATS in this series, as well as 7-0-1 ATS as home dogs of fewer than 6 points. Knowing that New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog – and provided New Orleans shakes the injury bug – look for the Saints to improve to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on Thanksgiving Day here tonight. Consider that playing on any .500 or greater NFL non-division home dog who was a playoff team last year if they’ve won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games and they’re facing a foe coming off an ATS loss of 7 or more points is 14-1-1 since 1996.

Rating: 2 Units

When Tampa Bay hosts the NY Giants under the Monday Night lights this evening a lot "OVER" developments will be in place. Tampa Bay has gone over in each of the last 6 meetings with the Giants by an average total of 59.5 PPG as well as going over in 6 of their last 7 games as home chalk of 8 or more points, and over in each of their last 3 Monday Night games. In addition the G-Men have gone over the number in 6 of their last 7 away games versus the NFC South.

5 Unit NFL Total of the Month

KC can let it all hang it this week with a Bye upcoming. And ‘Bye the way’... we’ve mentioned all season long about the hot over pattern for these teams. In the long and short term. All non-div favs before their Bye Week (KC), with OU line 41 > pts is 91-51-3 O/U since 2007. All favs before their Bye Week with OU line of 45 > pts (CHIEFS) is 8-0 O/U this year. It looks like the Sharps and Squares alike will both be on the over. #1 vs #4 offense + Last team with ball wins = Arrowhead SHOOTOUT.... 37 to 34!

5* NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 3 Units

We realize the Monsters of the Midway tend to stay in a deep sleep following Bye weeks, but a four-game losing streak has the natives restless. The price range also puts the Bears in a good situation, as they’re 8-2 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 4 or more points, while bumbling Baltimore shows up 0-5 ATS as non-division road favorites of more than 3 points. Like Shakira’s hips, these numbers don’t lie.

4* NFC Division Game of the Day

Kirk Cousins had a fine day in leading the Vikings past the Chargers last Sunday, when he completed 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, as the Vikes moved up to the No. 8 seed position in this year’s NFL playoff picture, as they now trail the Pack by 3.5 games in the NFC North. With it, we love fading teams with huge leads in divisional matchups, especially against those that are scratching and clawing to earn a playoff berth. Green Bay’s lousy rush defense allows 4.6 Yards Per Rush, which fits like a glove into Minnesota’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Consider that Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 10-4 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 ATS in division games. Also playing against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is 21-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

As far as the Rams are concerned, they will be monitoring QB Matthew Stafford’s inured back. At halftime last week he was just 9-of-16 for 62 yards and the pair of picks. A bigger problem looms on the other sideline where slumping San Francisco is just 1-11 the last dozen games when playing at home in Santa Clara. Frisco appears destined for its sixth losing season in seven years. With Los Angeles 5-1 ATS as a division road favorite of late, and the Niners 0-4 SUATS at home this season, as well as 1-3 SUATS in their last four games under the Monday Night lights, we’ll back the better team tonight.

Rating: 3 Units

NFL Total of the Week

Minnesota figures to run all ‘OVER’ (pun intended) the WORST rushing defense in the NFL, as LA allows 161.5 ypg and 5.0 yards per carry. Just like Philly did in last week’s OVER. From the Rushing portion of the database.  All GAME 5 > non-division home favs who ALLOW 5.0 > yards per rush (LA) are : 9-1-1 O/U last 4 years.  All > .500 GAME 8 > home teams who ALLOW 4.7 > ypr (LA) vs any opponent who averages 4.7 > ypr (MIN), when the OU line is 53 < points is 8-0 O/U since 2002..

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

The Vikings went up 17-3 just prior to halftime, but some more miserable time management allowed the Ravens to score a touchdown in the final seconds before intermission (that’s on you, Mike Zimmer). Still, the much-maligned Cousins had a nice performance, despite the loss, as he went 17-of-28 for 187 yards and two passing TDs and a running touchdown. The bottom line is Minnesota’s season – and possibly Zimmer’s job – is on the line in this contest. With seven of Minny’s eight games this season having been decided by 8 or fewer points, including three overtime sessions, we’ll take a look at the fact that Minnesota is 15-5-1 ATS as a dog in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer, including 9-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents.

Rating: 2 Unit

The OU line opened at 48.0 points, and has been bet down to 47.5.   All game 3 > home favs of < 13 pts who just scored 45 or more points at home the previous week (Colts) is 13-35-1 O/U (73% Unders) since 1982:. In the last 5 years, these teams have gone a perfedct 0-5 O/U. NFL teams who scored 40 or more pts on a Thursday (Colts) have gone a perfect 0-6 O/U in the last 4 years. This Indy offense is playing pretty good as of late, with 30 or more points in EACH of their last 4 games. That might make some under bettors a little gun shy. However, NFL favs who scored 30+ pts in each of their last 4 games (Colts) have gone 3-16-1 O/U since 2015, when the OU line is 52 < pts.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re certainly aware that the Lions were held to only six points on offense in their last game. With that said, NFL dogs of 10 < pts who scored < 7 points at home in their last game (LIONS) have gone 11-1 O/U since 2013 in game 14 or less. So that was a dominating and embarrassing loss by the score of 44 to 6 in their last game. Already this season, NFL teams off a bad loss of 35 or more points (LIONS) have gone a perfect  5-0 O/U in their next game. Avg MARGIN: +12.5 ppg! For the longest time, Pittsburgh was one of our favorite home ‘OVER’ teams in the entire league. And they’ve still gone 16-3 O/U as GAME 11 < non-div HF’s of 9 < pts (10-1-1 O/U L5 years!)

Rating: 2 Units

Big division road favorites of -8 > pts (Buf vs NYJ) have gone 10-30 O/U in
L10 years, including 3-21 O/U when the OU line is in the range of 43-50 pts. Buffalo’s game vs J’Ville last week had only 519 TOTAL offensive yards, and zero TD’s (final score was 9 to 6).  All NFL teams off a ‘10/10’ game (scored and allowed 10 < pts), when the OU line is > 46 points (Bills) is 1-10 O/U since 2009. For the host Jets, they play with added rest off that Thursday game vs the Colts. NFL teams off a Thursday road loss (Jets) have gone 4-23 O/U L4 years. That includes an almost-perfect 1-17 O/U when off a SU and ATS loss (Jets).

Rating: 3 Units

QB Tom Brady is 20-4 SU against everyone other than New Orleans since joining the Bucs, but only 1-3 SU versus the Saints. On the other side of the field, the WFT enters on a 0-4 SUATS slide knowing that head coach Ron Rivera is 12-1 ATS against the NFC South (his former division) when his troops are coming off a SUATS loss. And speaking of the NFC South, Washington sports a 12-3 ATS log as a dog of more than 3 points against this division. With the Bucs 0-5-2 ATS versus NFC East opponents, and Ron Rivera is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS during the regular season in his NFL career against foes coming off a Bye, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS versus non-division foes, we have to go with the WFT.

Rating: 4 unit NFL Mismatch of the Week

New Orleans dropped 22 points on Atlanta in the 4th quarter to take the lead, after trailing by 18, then failed on a 2-point conversion to leave the door open for a field goal win by the Falcons. That’s exactly what happened, so we expect to see a frustrated bunch of Saints in Music City this afternoon, taking it out on a Tennessee team that suddenly looks unbeatable. We know better. The visiting squad in this series has cashed four straight tickets, and the chest-puffing Titans have collapsed after rumbling with the Rams, going 1-6 ATS of late. Also consider that NFL teams coming off four consecutive underdog wins in a row are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS since 1999 as a favorite the following game.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

The plain truth is that the Steelers’ Monday Night win over Chicago featured one of  the worst-officiated games we have ever seen. The officials seemingly did everything in their power to decide this outcome. The greatest offense by the officials occurred when the Bears seemingly forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Cassius Marsh sacked Roethlisberger on third down, but Marsh was flagged for taunting – even though he only stared at Pittsburgh’s bench. He didn’t even say anything! Yet, the flag was thrown. Chances are the same crew won’t be working this game, which could be bad news for Detroit. No problem, we say, as the Lions are a hearty 8-1 ATS with rest, while Aged Beef Ben and his charges have gone 2-5 ATS after Monday Nighters. The win-starved Lions should want this more, and if Roethlisberger is as tired as he looked on Monday, Detroit has a great opportunity to get off the 0-8 schneid. Also consider that playing on any winless NFL with rest from Game Five out team versus a .500 or greater opponent if the opponent is not coming off a double-digit win is 13-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Once again, Jacoby Brissett filled in for peanut brittle Tua Tagovailoa, who sat the game out with a broken finger. Interestingly, 11 of the 16 AFC teams own winning records after nine weeks of the season while just one team in this matchup checks that box. Lamar Jackson became the first NFL quarterback this season to win three games after trailing by double-digits, digging the Ravens out of a 17-3, second-quarter hole with both his arm (266 yards, three touchdowns) and his legs (120 yards on 21 carries). The bottom line is Miami is 0-3 ATS in its last three games when coming off a win, and 1-4 SUATS on Thursdays. Next to Baltimore’s 8-0 ATS record in this series, 7-1 ATS mark in its last eight games versus the AFC East, and 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on Thursdays.

Rating: 2 Units

Tomlin has been unable to get his troops to fully focus under the Monday Night lights where they are 1-4 ATS at home under his lead in non-division contests, including 0-3 ATS when coming off a win. For Chicago, it was another week of frustration, as they enter this contest on a 0-3 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) slide. Despite failed fourth-quarter drives, QB Justin Fields still had a solid performance in a losing cause against San Francisco last week, going 19-of-27 for 175 yards, one touchdown and the pick. He also scrambled 10 times for 103 rushing yards and another score. However, Chicago brings a 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS ledger in games against the AFC North, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with a losing record into this battle.

Rating: 3 Units

Titans are 5-0 ATS as a dog versus .800 or greater opponents, as well as 5-0-1 ATS in this series. For the Rams, sometimes NFL scores can be misleading. This is one of those instances. The Rams dominated the Houston game from start to finish, eventually leading 38-0 before allowing the Texans 22 unanswered points in junk time. However, they will need to exert more of themselves against this red-hot juggernaut today. With a Monday night fight up next against division rival San Francisco, and just 2-8 ATS before Monday nighters, look for the Rams to fall tonight. Consider that NFL Sunday Night dogs of more than 7 points are 18-4 ATS when facing a non-division foe coming off a win of more than 14 points.

Rating: 2 Units

All non-division ROAD teams who scored 25 > pts in each of their last 4 games (PATS), when the OU line is less than 56 points is  16-3-1 O/U L4 years. All NFL favorites of < 6 pts who scored 110 > combined points in their last 3 games (PATS), when the OU line is < 47 points is 9-1 O/U since 2010. In addition all game 14 < NFC home teams vs an AFC opponent )PANTHERS vs PATRIOTS), when the OU Line is LESS than (

Rating: 3 Unit Total of the Day

All teams who scored 22 or less points in each of their last 6 games (HOU) are 7-1 O/U L3 years. The Texans are the worst rushing team in the entire league (only 3.3 yards per rush this year).  All  game 8 > road dogs of > 4 pts who average 3.5 or less yards per rush on the year (HOU), when the OU line is < 48 points is 9-1 O/U L5 years. With both teams on multi-game losing streaks, we’ll close with the fact that all home favorite of 6 > pts when both teams are off 4+ SU losses in a row (MIA / HOU) are 12-2 O/U since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

Non-Conference games are taking center stage in the NFL this week, with more than half of all games (8) featuring a NFC team taking on a AFC opponent. We’ll be Going low in one of those non-conf affairs, specifically the VIKINGS @ RAVENS game... with an OU line around 49.5 points. All Week 8 AFC home favs of > 3 pts (Bal) vs any NFC opponent (Min), when the OU Line is in the range of 40 to 52 points is  0-8-1 O/U L20 years. This will be the 8th game this season between these two particular divisions. And so far, AFC NORTH vs NFC NORTH games have gone 1-7 O/U, with an average of only 39.1 combined PPG. The host Ravens come in well rested after their Bye Week. They’ve had two weeks to ‘stew’ after getting shocked by the Bengals in Week Seven. Finally consider that   All teams AFTER their Bye Week off a SU favorite loss in their previous game (Balt), when the OU line is > 44 points is 5-23-1 O/U since 2012 and 1-10 O/U L4 years.

Rating: 2 Units

All underdogs off a SU loss of 15 > pts (Jacksonville) vs any opponent off a SU win of 15 > pts (Buffalo) is 1-13 O/U last 2 years. Jacksonville allowed 31 points last week while Buffalo allowed only 11 points. All underdogs of 6 > pts after allowing 31 > pts (Jacksonville) vs any opponent who allowed 11 < pts in their previous game (Buffalo), when the OU line is 54 or less points is 1-9 O/U last 2 years: . The clincher: Jacksonville has already gone a perfect 0-5 O/U this season in their non-division games (only 42.4 combined PPG).

Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day

For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging  a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

 Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite.

Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year

Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition,  the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990.  The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

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Rating: 2 Units

The Colts are in must-win mode as they enter a two-game stretch of games against the lowly Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis lost 34-31 in overtime to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Quarterback Carson Wentz threw one interception with less than two minutes left in regulation and another in overtime. The Jets come into this one off a big win but that euphoria may be short-lived, as they arrive in Indianapolis with an 0-3 ATS mark in Thursday action, and a 1-7 SUATS failure when coming off a win as a 7-point or larger dog. The Colts counter with a 14-4-1 ATS effort on Thursdays, and a near-perfect 5-0-1 ATS mark after tangling with the Titans.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chiefs give up an NFL-high 6.6 yards per play. Even though we can expect a bounceback from the K.C. offense -- it helps that Giants safety Jabrill Peppers is out -- the Chiefs' defense will leave the backdoor open. New York has already covered at Washington and New Orleans (outright win). The Giants got blown out at Dallas but that was a game in which Daniel Jones got knocked out early. Back New York to improve to 23-7 in its last 30 as a road dog.

Rating: 3 Unit Inter-Conference Total of the Week

This week’s Primetime ‘bookend’ concludes with the Monday Nighter, as the reeling KC Chiefs host the Giants in  Kansas City. It’s an ideal time to go low... with the Chiefs currently in an offensive funk... and taking on one of our favorite ‘Under’ teams in the G-Men (Giants: 1-9 O/U L2Y in non-div games w/ an OU of > 43 pts). At last look, KC was favored by 10 pts with an OU line of 52. Consider that Monday Night double-digit non-division home favorites (Chiefs) have gone 5-23-1 O/U (and 0-7 O/U In L5 years) when the OU line is 54 or less points.

Rating; 3 Units

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is still frothing following last season’s 31-28 home loss to Dallas as 7-point chalk, a loss to backup QB Andy Dalton that snapped a 3-game Vikings win streak, as well as a 4-game Dallas losing skid. In the end it eventually cost the 7-9 Vikings a losing season. Now back at the scene of the crime, Minny will look to improve on its 10-2 ATS series ledger, while Zimmer looks to pad his 16-3-1 ATS career mark at home against .500 or greater non-division foes. The Boys’ 11-17 SU and 9-19 ATS record against NFC North foes since 2009 adds another log to the fire. In addition, consider that 5-1 NFL teams in Game Seven, coming off five wins in a row, are 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS since 1980 if not favored by more than 3 points, including 0-6 SUATS versus sub .600 opponents.

Rating: 3 Unit NFC Total of the Day

We’re certainly aware that Dallas is on a very hot 4-game SU, ATS, and ‘OVER’ streak in a row. the sample size is small, but significant: NFL road teams (DAL) off 4+ SUATS wins and 4+ ‘OVERS’ have gone 6-0-1 O/U since 2004 when the OU line is < 57 points. With amazing offensive point totals of 35, 44, 36, and 41 in their last 4 games, our next query tells us that, Non-Division teams who scored 35 > pts in each of their last 4 games (DALLAS) have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U since 2000 when the OU line is 46 > points.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Brady numbers become dizzying, and at some point we anticipate seeing some degree of regression. It actually happened in his final season with New England when he concluded the season with a career-low 55.7 QBR. But the move to Tampa was akin to finding the Fountain of Youth. Today, though, he takes on a team he knocked out of the NFC playoffs last season, and for that, we expect him to pay the piper. For openers, the Saints are 10-3-1 ATS as home dogs dating back to 2006, including 6-1-1 ATS with head coach Sean Payton. The Bourbon Street gang is also 5-0 SUATS in its last five regular season meetings with the Bucs. And if that’s not enough, consider that Payton is an annuity when it comes to exacting revenge in division games, going 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS, including 18-2 ATS as a favorite or dog.

Rating: 2 Units

The OU line opened at 48 points, and has been bet down to 46.5 to 46.0. With Christian McCaffrey out for the Panthers, they’re pretty much lost on offense these days (only 20.9 ppg this year). When you only manage three points against the league’s #30 scoring defense (NY Giants), you’re in real trouble. But they still playing great defense, allowing only 307 yards per game and less than 21 points per game. So we’ll go with the flow, as this Carolina / Atlanta series has gone 1-4 O/U in the last 5 meetings.

Rating: 5 Units

NFL Mismatch of the Week

The key to this contest will be how the Titans respond following a pair of home underdog wins the past two weeks against the Chiefs and Bills. Tennessee 0-4 ATS in games after coming off consecutive SU underdog wins. In addition, the Tennessee is just 5-15 SU and 6-13-1 ATS the past twenty games in this series, including 2-9-1 ATS in games in which the Colts own a greater than .400 win percentage. In addition, playing on any 3-4 NFL team in Game Eight as either a dog or a favorite of 3 or fewer points if they were a playoff team last season and are facing a .666 or greater foe coming off consecutive wins if the foe allowed a combined 20 or more points in its last two games is 10-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Unit AFC Total of the Week

The fact that Cincy is a huge road favorite plays right into our hands, as NFL road favs of 9 > pts (Cin) have gone 73% under since 2011 (17-47-2 O/U), when the OU line is 41 > pts. Yes, we’re aware that the Bengals just scored 41 points against the Ravens last week. All ROAD teams who scored 40+ pts on the division road the previous week (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years. This will be Cincy’s 3rd straight road game in a row. Consider that all teams in 3rd straight road game after allowing 17 < pts in last two games (Cin) are 0-9 O/U L4 years.

Rating: 4 Unit TNF Game of the Week

The Cardinals, the league’s sole unbeaten team, and currently 7-0 for the first time since 1974 under head coach Don Coryell (why isn’t he in the NFL HOF?). As always, in matters of great importance like this game, we note the Packers are 5-0 ATS versus undefeated NFC West opponents. On the flip side, NFL 7-0 favorites are 0-3 SUATS in Game Eight versus .700 or greater non-division opponents since 1980, while Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points. In conclusion, take the points and relax. Also consider that Green Bay QB Rodgers is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Geno Smith, following last week’s winning ticket, is 8-5 ATS as a dog in games in which his team is coming off a loss. Seattle was losing 14-0 at intermission, as they produced just 65 net yards of offense compared to 177 for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh was in complete control of the game. However, Seattle made some amazing adjustments at halftime. The bottom line is we can’t ignore the fact that head coach Pete Carroll is 33-13 SU and 30-13-3 ATS at home in games in which his team does not sport a winning record, including 14-5-1 ATS as a dog.

Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month

The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game
losing skid, while sporting the better ‘O’ and ‘D’ in this contest. Frisco is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS of late against AFC South opposition. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo back after being sidelined the last six quarters with a calf injury, look for him to improve on his 20-7 SU and 16-11 ATS career mark against non-division foes here tonight. Finally consider that the 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 ATS In his NFL career when coming off three losses in a row.

Rating: 2 Units

Undefeated non-div home teams in game 5 > (Cards) have gone a perfect 0-11-1 O/U L5 years when the OU line is > 45 pts. At last look, ‘Zona was pegged as big home favs of -16.5 to -17 pts. Consider that all big non div home favs of -13 > pts (Cards), when the OU line is 72 or less points is 7-26 O/U the last 5 years. In last week’s road win over Cleveland, the Cardinals scored 37 points.

Rating: 3 Units

A non-conference SHOOTOUT in Las Vegas is on the menu for Week 7,
now that a NEW guy (Greg Olson) is calling the plays on offense. For us, that means the OVER in the EAGLES / RAIDERS affair. All it took was one game for the revelation. John Gruden’s designed offense was indeed holding the Raiders back. In their 34-pt explosion (and 426 yards) over the best home defense in the NFL (Denver), ALL the pieces on the Raiders offense had a role... which wasn’t even the case when the offense was scoring points earlier in the year.  The Eagles have gone 31-14-1 OU (69%) on the road since 2015, including 15-4 O/U as dogs of 6 < pts. In addition, Philly’s last 15 non-conference road games have gone 12-2-1 O/U, with an avg margin of +8.5 ppg.

Rating: 2 Units

The piss-poor offense of Detroit is ranked #28 in scoring (only 18.3 ppg). In fact, they have scored 17 or LESS points in EACH of their last five games (1-4 O/U). They’ll be taking on a Ram’s defense that has stabilized as of late, allowing only 14.0 ppg in their last two wins. The host Rams are one of three really big home favorites this weekend, as they are laying 15 to 16 pts. Consider that big non-division home favs of 13 > pts with an OU line of 52 < pts (Rams) have gone 7-26 O/U in the last 5 years, including 3-17 O/U when the OU line is in the range of > 43 and < 52 pts. LA was a road fav in each of the last two weeks and brought home the bacon both times.

Rating: 5 Unit Blowout

Figure the Ravens will not let the success of the last two home wins the past two weeks cut short their five-game win skein, not behind a burgeoning defense that has held three of its last four opponents to season-low yards. To confirm those thoughts, consider that NFL teams in the 3rd of a 3-game home stand, with a bye week on deck, are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS during the regular season. Playing on any NFL home team coming off consecutive home games who has a week of rest on deck if they scored more than 3 points in their last game and they are facing an opponent coming off a win of more than 7 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

This game at Lambeau Field has the potential to be the most WIND-AFFECTED contest of Week Seven. Weather Report: Overcast... chance of showers... winds in excess of 13-17 MPH... The 2021 Washington offense doesn’t scare anyone. Against the league’s 2nd WORSE defense last week (Chiefs),Washington managed only 276 yards and 13 points. That’s not a very encouraging sign. With key injures at all FOUR skill positions (QB / RB / WR / TE), it’s no wonder they’re stuck in neutral with a ranking of only #24 on offense. Consider that All NFL road teams after allowing a COMBINED 136 or MORE pts in their last 4 games (Wash), when the OU line is 54 < pts is 1-11-1 O/U the last 4 years.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

Monday night same conference games with a HIGH OU line of 52 > pts (Buf @ Ten) have gone 0-6 O/U L4 years. Monday Night games have gone 1-11-1 O/U L7 years in game 4 or greater when the road team is favored by > 4 and < 10 pts (Buf is -5 to -5.5). We’re aware that Buffalo has scored 38 or more points in each of their last 3 games however NFL favorites of > 1 pt who scored 35 > pts in each of their last 3 games (Buf) have gone 1-11 O/U since 2015.

Rating: 5 Unit MNF Game of the Month

Playing on (Tennessee) any NFL home dog of more than 3 points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and did not cover its last game by 20 or more points if they are facing an opponent coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

Today, the Pats return home to host Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league at 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. It’s where The Hoodie is 155-41 SU and 110-78-8 ATS in his career with New England, including 14-4-1 ATS when taking points. The Cowboys enter after taking down an injury-laden Giants squad at home last week, carrying a 9-21-1 ATS mark in non-division duels in games after knocking off New York, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games. Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career against teams from the NFC East, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog. He is also 6-0 SU versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Clincher: Playing against any NFL non-division road favorite of more than
3 points coming off three consecutive home games and a SUATS win is 14-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Browns lost to the Chargers on Sunday, even though they scored more than 40 points and didn’t turn the ball over a single time, there had been 401 instances in the Super Bowl era where a team had accomplished both of those feats, and those teams combined to go 401-0. However, the Browns ended that improbable 401-game winning streak that had gone on for more than 50 years. Consider that 6-0 NFL teams in Game Seven are 1-9 SUATS when facing an opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7 ATS if not favored by 12 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

All non-division teams off a road loss of 14 > pts and a road dog WIN (Giants), when the OU line is 41 > pts is 2-12 O/U since 2011. New York comes in with a 1-4 SU record on the year.  All NFC home teams with a .200 or worse winning pct (Giants), when the OU line is 38 > pts is 4-17 O/U last 4 years.

Rating: 3 Units

NFL home favorites < 7 pts off a MONDAY home game (RAVENS) is 16-3-1 O/U since 2012 . In the last 3 years, this situation has gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U (60.3 combined ppg). All game 3 > WEST time zone road DOGS of > 1 pt (CHARGERS) vs a EAST Time Zone opponent (RAVENS), when the OU line is 46 > pts is 21-5-1 O/U since 2014. The CLINCHER: The Ravens have gone 9-1 O/U at home vs all AFC WEST Division opponents in L10 years w/ an OU line of < 55 pts.

Rating: 3 Units

Bears’ defense showed their toughness and talent while leading the team to a road win in Las Vegas, their second victory in as many weeks. QB Justin Fields was just 12-of-20 for 111 yards and a touchdown, but he played mistake-free football, and came up with some clutch plays to support the great effort by his defense. With it, Chicago is 3-2 and is suddenly positioned to make the playoffs for the second year in a row. The Bears are 9-3 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points. Consider that the Bears are 7-1 SUATS when coming off two win under head coach Matt Nagy.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills, Browns and Rams rank 1-2-3 in net yards per play. Guess who's fourth? The Eagles. Philly hosts a Buccaneers team that's failed to cover six straight primetime games and will be without stud linebacker Lavonte David. Tom Brady has a sore right thumb but says it won't affect his play. Consider that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in Thursday performances while Tampa Bay has coughed up the bucks on Thursdays going just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Jackson has chewed up and spit out foes coming off a win, going 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS with Baltimore, including 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS versus .333 or worse opponents. Meanwhile, the bruised and battered Colts limp into Baltimore with an 0-5 ATS ledger in their last five meetings with the AFC North. The Clincher: NFL road teams, coming off consecutive away games and a SU underdog win, are just 6-23 SU and 7-22 ATS when facing a foe coming off consecutive wins, including 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS if the visitor owns a sub .666 win percentage.

Rating: 3 Units

NFL DOGS of < 13 pts who allowed 30 or less COMBINED points in their last 3 games (BILLS) have gone 9-1 O/U since 2014. On the flip side, KC’s offense is in mid-season form right now... 3 out of 4 games have totaled 62 or more points... and they ALSO cracked the 40-pt mark last week (like Buf). All NFL games in which BOTH teams scored 40+ pts the previous week (CHIEFS/BILLS) is 6-1 OU since 2014. Not only did that game vs Philly go OVER last week, but the Chiefs also covered a BIG number.

Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month

While the defensive genius of Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a given, he continues to fly under the radar in games when coming off high-scoring efforts, going 8-1 SUATS in his career in games after the Bills tally 35 or more points in their previous contest. He is also 6-1 SUATS with Buffalo in matchups of winning teams when his troops own the higher win percentage. With that, we turn things over to The clincher: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Niners enter off a pair of SU favorite losses, while the host Cardinals arrive off last week’s underdog win against the Rams. Because of it, the bottom line is this game is packed with value. Remember, the preseason line on this game at the Westgate Super Book was “pick”, so it’s been adjusted more than a variable rate mortgage loan. The Clincher: San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite, including 5-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Playing against any .500 or greater NFL division favorite coming off consecutive wins, the last as a dog (Arizona), versus an opponent coming off consecutive losses, each as a favorite, if the Over/Under total in this game is more than 41 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

This Chargers defense is FOR REAL. They are one of only THREE teams to start the year with a 0-4 OU record (the other two are Denver and Pittsburgh). And a league-LOW average MARGIN of -9.5 ppg. They held the mighty Chiefs to only 24 pts... Dallas to only 17 pts... Las Vegas to only 14 pts.... and Wash to only 16 pts (ALL season LOWS). On the flip side, Cleveland also has a killer D in 2021. In fact, the Browns are now ranked #2 in the entire league, allowing only 250.3 yards per game... and only 16.8 points per game

Rating: 3 Units

Kudos to the Bengals for a 3-1 SU record, tied for 1st place in the AFC North. They’ve scored 24 pts, 24 pts, and 17 pts in their last three games. nothing to write home about on offense. But... that ‘moderate’ scoring actually puts them in a great spot for an OVER. Consider that all .666 or better teams who scored 24 < pts in each of their last 3 games (CIN), when the OU Line is > 37 points is 41-10-1 OU last 6 years. LAST year, teams in this exact same position went 12-1 O/U!

Rating: 2 Units

This is a NFC North Division series that has gone 3-1 O/U in the last 4 meetings in 2019 and 2020, with an average of 56.2 combined PPG. If this was back in 2018 or 2019, we might have gone the other way... as NFC North Division games went 7-16-1 O/U in that 2-year period. But in 2020, NFL North Division games flip-flopped... and went 9-3 O/U with an average of 55.2 combined ppg. With Minnesota laying a TD in this game, we note that in the last 2 years, GAME 11 or less NFL big division home favs of -7 > pts (VIKINGS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U when the OU line is 50 or less points (58.6 combined PPG)

Rating: 2 Units

Sean Payton has a 49-28-1 ATS career mark in games when coming off a loss, including 25-10 ATS away. While Washington is 3-8 SUATS in its last eleven games when hosting visitors from the NFC South.

Rating: 2 Units

With Sunday’s win over San Francisco, Wilson has never lost three games in a row, and is now 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS while trying to avoid the trifecta. He is also 18-6-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS at home – not to mention 9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in games on Thursdays. Meanwhile, the Rams roll into the Emerald City off their first loss of the season knowing they are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in division duels on Thursdays, including 0-4 ATS when laying points. Given Seattle head coach Pete Carroll’s glossy 28-12 SU and 27-10-3 ATS NFL career mark in home games when his team does not own a winning record (.500 or less), we’ll be back on the take with the Seahawks tonight.