Rating: 3 Units

Raiders’ signal caller Jimmy Garoppolo was hospitalized with a back injury during last week’s contest against New England. On Bagent’s first drive in the NFL, he was strip-sacked, and the Vikings returned the fumble 42 yards for a touchdown. It proved to be a costly play in the Vikings’ 19-13 victory. With the quarterback situation up in the air in this fray, we’ll look to fade Las Vegas’ 0-9 ATS ledger as a road favorite as the Bears improve to 8-2 ATS in this series

Rating: 2 Units

Jacksonville’s team turnover differential is +7, which ranks second in the NFL. And the Jaguars lead the NFL in takeaways with 15. But the fact of the matter is that TOs have a tendency to regress to the mean. Meanwhile, Jags’ QB Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a sprained knee. If he sits, it will be C.J. Beathard behind center for Jacksonville. Beathard has made 12 starts during his NFL career, going 2-10 SU and 5-7 ATS. The Jags are also 1-10 ATS in their last eleven games against the NFC South, while the Saints are 4-0 SUATS in the last four games in this series. For a team that just spent two weeks in London that now hits the road for two more games outside of Jacksonville, we’re betting they won’t make it back home unscathed.  

Rating: 3 Units

Prescott is 4-1 SUATS under the Monday Night lights. He is also 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in games when the Boys are coming off a spread loss of more than 17 points. Meanwhile, Dallas is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when coming off a loss, as well as 5-0 SUATS away on Mondays when coming off a loss of 14 or more points. And we didn’t even mention the team’s 18-8 SU and 19-6-1 ATS mark in away games when coming off an away game, including 9-1 SUATS when coming off a setback. The Chargers check in just 1-4 SUATS on Mondays when coming off a Bye and 1-5-1 ATS coming off a SUATS win when hosting non-division opponents foes coming off a loss. Finally, the Cowboys’ defense is 112 YPG better than the Bolts, and that’s what figures to decide this contest.

Rating: 3 Units

The bottom line tonight, though, is we can’t lay a number like this with a team that played in London last week. And not when NFL Sunday Night home favorites of 7 or more points are just 12-22-1 ATS against non-division foes. The Giants allow 5.3 Yards Per Rush while the Bills permit 5.8 Yards Per Rush. We realize this matchup doesn't necessarily pass the smell test but forget about that and instead focus on the fact that NFL .600 or greater teams returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss, are 0-5 SUATS all-time.

Rating: 2 Units

The Panthers are 3-44 SU and 9-36-2 ATS in games in which they surrender 17 or more points, including 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS versus AFC foes. It’s been a rough start for Carolina QB Bryce Young, the top overall pick in last year’s NFL draft. He ranks No. 32 overall – last overall among the league’s starting quarterbacks – with a 28.6 QBR. Miami’s 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record in games where they are coming off an ATS win when taking on foes coming off an ATS loss sets the table. Carolina’s 1-6 ATS all-time mark in this series seals the deal.

Rating: 2 Units

This contest finds Minnesota coming off a loss while the Bears enter off a win. That fits Minny’s M.O. as they are 7-2 ATS in games when coming off a home dog loss. They are also 9-2 ATS versus opponents that scored 40+ points in their last game. Chicago got off the schneid in a dramatic way last Thursday with a 40-20 upset win over Washington, but they are only 2-8 SUATS in games when scoring a victory in its previous game, as well as 3-7 ATS after posting 40+ points. With Da Bears 1-9 ATS in their last ten division home games and having allowed season high yards in three of their last four games, it's the Vikings day today.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Jacksonville is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as home favorites behind QB Trevor Lawrence. Game Six of the season has been more like a devilish 6-6-6 to the Jags as they are 1-12 SU in Game Six the last 13 years, including 0-6 ATS at home. That’s chock full of bad numbers, if ever there were any. If you think those bad numbers, consider that Jacksonville is 2-14 SU and 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game!

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Titans gained 400 yards two weeks ago facing the Bengals and then another 347 this past weekend. It appears the offense has come alive, but the defense yielded a season-high 429 yards in last week’s loss at Indianapolis. With NFL teams who are dining on tea and crumpets 6-1 ATS as favorites when arriving here off a SU favorite loss, we take added solace in knowing Jackson is 24-11 SU and 22-11-2 ATS away from home with the Ravens, including 4-0-2 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Tennessee is 1-13-1 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of 5 or fewer points versus AFC North opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

Let’s face it: the Broncos' defense is literally nonexistent at this point of the season. In the last two weeks, they surrendered 28 points to the Bears and 31 to the Jets, a pair of teams that no one was going to confuse with a top-five offense in the league. Facing a Kansas City team that hasn’t necessarily hit their stride offensively is going to be a tough hill for the Broncos to climb. The Chiefs have performed well defensively, though they admittedly haven’t faced a Murderer’s Row of offenses to this point of the season. Denver’s last win against the Chiefs came back in September 2015 and they haven’t held Kansas City under 22 points in any of the games in this 15-game skid. Since Denver’s defense is so leaky right now, you have to think that Kansas City rolls up 30-plus points here to earn a home victory, extending their dominance in the series.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re looking at a pair of teams that have their fair share of questions that lack clear-cut answers. Green Bay is trying to find their run game as they have struggled to move the chains in that regard. Las Vegas has a similar situation as they are dead last in rushing yards per game this season. In addition, the hope is that Garoppolo will be able to play after missing last week with a concussion. O’Connell was decent in his NFL debut but was sacked seven times, six by former Raider Khalil Mack. The Packers have the better team right now and it’s tough to have faith in the Raiders given their problems on both sides of the ball. Take Green Bay on the road in this contest.

Rating: 3 Units

Denver ranks dead last in overall defense while being out statted -128 net yards per game. They also allow foes to chew them up on the ground, surrendering 5.6 Yards Per Rush. Finally, the Broncos are 1-14 ATS as a favorite if they were a favorite in their previous game, including 0-12 ATS when they have at least one loss on the season.

Rating: 3 Units

Arizona QB Josh Dobbs has sparked the Cardinals’ attack. They’re 3-1 ATS behind him; they beat the Cowboys as a double-digit dog, and they were within five points of the mighty 49ers at the start of the fourth quarter last week. In fact, his final two passes of the game last week were dropped touchdown passes that went right through the hands of two receivers in the end zone. Finally, the Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC West.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Rams come in with a 6-1 ATS mark in games when both teams are coming off wins as favorites. Philly tends to falter in games against the NFC West, going 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS in the past 25 contests. When the 2-2 Rams get Cooper Kupp back, it will be a scary tandem alongside rookie Puka Nacua. Nacua had another monster game after totaling 25 catches for 266 yards over the first two weeks, notching nine receptions for 163 yards last Sunday in Los Angeles’ overtime win at Indianapolis. Finally, playing against the defending Super Bowl loser from Game 5 out as an away favorite of fewer than 7 points in a non-division game versus a .333 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these squads coming off heartbreakers. What a horrible loss for the Bears to the Broncos. That tied for the biggest blown lead (21 pts) in team history. So now they are 0-4 for the first time since 2000. Justin Fields had a great day (4 TDs/1 INT), D.J. Moore had 8 receptions, 131 yards, & a TD & Kahlil Herbert with 18 carries for 103 yards, but still without a win. Washington will be facing a team which has allowed 25+ pts for an NFL record 14 straight games. The Commanders are 4-1 vs Chicago, but they are only 1-8 as home favorites in October.  Finally, Washington is 3-8 ATS at home after a division road game and 3-7 ATS after facing Philadelphia.

Rating: 3 Units

Stroud has completed 73 of 103 passes (70.9 percent) for 877 yards and all four of his touchdowns while inside the pocket. Outside the pocket, where he was often dangerous as a playmaker in college, Stroud has only completed five of 18 throws (27.8 percent) for 29 yards on 1.6 yards per attempt. Amazingly, he has accomplished all of this while playing behind an unsettled and injury-riddled offensive line that is allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the league. Through it all, he leads the league with a 77.8 percent completion percentage (14 of 18) against man coverage while tossing 222 yards and two touchdowns. The league average completion percentage against man coverage is 58.5 percent. So now that we’ve ascertained that we have the better QB in this game, we’ll lean on Houston's 6-1 ATS mark as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more when coming off its initial win of the season. With the Steelers staring dead ahead to a bigger clash up next with Baltimore, we look to the fact that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 12-21-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite coming off a win, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cleveland Browns lost Nick Chubb for the season, and Deshaun Watson has been spotty at best, although good last week. But people need to realize how freaking good this defense is. The offense is but a side role player in this production as the Browns have the best defense in the league and it will carry them all season. They held Joe Burrow to under 100 yards passing, they held Derrick Henry to 20 yards rushing, and in their only loss, 14 of the 26 points were from defensive touchdowns -- a pick 6 and a fumble scoop and score. The Ravens' passing game is limited and without much help around Jackson, I don't see the Ravens being able to mount much of an attack. 

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

QB Gardner Minshew’s will last week moved his record to 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in his last dozen starts. Complicating matters, the Colts are 5-10 SUATS in non-division games following consecutive underdog wins. Given the fact that Indy is one of 6 NFL teams to have been outgained in each of their games this season, what are the chances for the Colts this week? It is not all that good. The Rams have a top coach and a quality quarterback, which makes them dangerous on any given Sunday. Especially knowing that the Colts are just 2-12-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 0-8-1 ATS at home. Finally, HC McVay is 5-0 ATS away in his career, and 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against foes coming off a SU underdog win.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Titans surrender just 2.6 defensive yards per rush, which jumps off the page next to Cincinnati’s 5.1 DYPR. That’s a gaping difference. So, while a boatload of trends lines up in the Bengals’ favor, we’ll defer to stats and shade the Titans and Mike Vrabel and his glossy 16-9 ATS dog log against foes coming off a SUATS win. Finally, the Titans are 9-3 ATS at home against foes coming off a Monday night contest, including 4-0 ATS versus sub .400 opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The Packers overcame a 17-0 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Saints 18-17 in a game which increased their home opening record to 16-1 in the process. With it, they bring a lofty 12-0-1 outright mark in second-home games entering this contest while going 9-3-1 ATS in those games. Tonight’s game also marks the first time in the last 10 meetings between these two squads in which Green Bay will be on the receiving end of the points.  The Lions are 4-28 SU in Green Bay dating back to 1992 – being the favorite only twice. Finally, the Packers’ are 4-0 ATS as a home dog. 

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Cincinnati is 15-3 SU and 16-2 ATS in its last 18 non-division games, including 6-0 SUATS at home. In addition, they stand 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS losses. Los Angeles checks in with a 0-6-2 ATS log against AFC North foes coming off back-to-back losses. Finally, Joe Burrow is 5-0-1 ATS with the Bengals when Cincinnati is coming off a pair of losses.

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS their last six meetings. Jimmy Garoppolo, who stands heads and shoulders above Kenny Pickett. Jimmy G brings a 39-25-1 ATS overall career mark into this game, including 4-1 ATS against the AFC North. With the Black-and-Gold just 1-3 ATS in its last four games after Cleveland, we are going with the Raiders.

Rating: 3 Units

Houston, is a team that’s given Jacksonville fits over the years with the Texans going 15-3 outright in its last 18 games against Jacksonville, including 5-1 SUATS as a dog in this series since 2018. Additionally, while Houston is 0-2 SUATS this season, they are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats). Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has yet to cash an NFL ticket as a home favorite, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. To cap it off, Jacksonville is 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS as a favorite if the Jags were a dog in their last game.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore looks to improve to 3-0 on the season, something they haven’t done since 2016. They are 8-1 ATS after division road games and 5-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a division contest. The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last games against the AFC North and 2-7 ATS in games when both teams were taking points last week.

Rating: 2 Units

The Patriots are 0-2 for the first time since 2001. They went on to go 14-3 thereafter, riding a season-ending 9-0 win skein to capture the Super Bowl. But that was all with Tom Brady, not Mac Jones. One of the Pats’ weaknesses has been the lack of a ground game, and that doesn’t work in the NFL. The 6 NFL teams failing to average more than 82 Rushing Yards Per Game this season are struggling, going 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS through the first two games of the season. However, New England had a 5-0 ATS series record against the Jets, and a 6-1 ATS mark in games in which both teams are coming off SUATS losses. Bill Belichick is 18-3 SU and 14-7 of late in games when coming off successive losses.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating; 4 Units

After blowing last week’s 21-14 lead after two quarters, Denver has now lost an NFL record nine straight games where it has had the lead at halftime. Even with first-year NFL coaches just 1-9 this season, the value is all with Denver in this matchup. You can count on one thing in this game: Sean Payton is pissed, and somebody will pay the price. He is also 23-7-2 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off a win. Finally, NFL Game Three underdogs coming off a pair of SU favorite losses are 16-2-1 ATS since 2003, including 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL this year that went from worst to first in their division last season. That’s not good news if you’re looking to back them as a favorite, as these teams are just 82-100-5 ATS overall since 2004, including 43-68-3 ATS as home favorites. San Fran is also 1-6 ATS in this series when coming off back-to-back wins. The Giants were one of four NFL teams to come back and win after trailing by double-digits last week. New York is 6-0 ATS as a dog after being a favorite in its last game, and 3-0 ATS on Thursdays the past three seasons, and 4-0 ATS before a Monday night game.

Rating: 2 Units

Mike Tomlin does not take to losing consecutive home games very well, where he is 8-1 outright in the get-even game. Tomlin is also 7-1 ATS the last eight games as a dog after a game where he was a dog, and 13-4-5 ATS as a home dog in his career with Pittsburgh. The Browns are feeling good about themselves after destroying Cincinnati at the Dawg Pound last week, however they are just 1-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at Raymond James Stadium and 1-4 ATS in the first of a two-game homestand. The Bears are 6-3 ATS in the first of consecutive road games. Tampa comes into this one off a phony 20-17 win at Minnesota in which they lost the stats, 369-242, whereas the Bears were edged, 329-311, in total yards in their 18-point loss to the Packers. Finally, Tamp QB Baker is only 9-21-2 as a favorite in the NFL, including losing his last eight.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia HC Pederson is 16-12-1 ATS in his NFL head coaching career as an underdog when seeking revenge, including 4-0 ATS in the last four games. And Jacksonville brings a perfect 6-0 ATS home dog log into this contest – winning all six games outright! Consider that the Chiefs come in with a 2-7 ATS record in the last nine regular-season games against the AFC South, and are 1-4 ATS after a Thursday contest.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

 Seattle is 4-0 SUATS in this series, as well as 21-9 SU and 20-8-1 ATS when coming off a loss and facing an opponent coming off a win. In addition, Seattle’s head coach thrives against teams coming off a win from this division, going 11-3 outright in his career, including 5-0 when the foe is coming off an upset win. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 8-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points.

Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

NFL division teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a division loss in Game One, are 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS since 1990 if they were a playoff team last season, including games against opponents who are coming off a SUATS win. The Ravens are a horrible 2-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS record of late when coming off a no-division game and taking on an opponent off a division game. The Bengals 8-1 ATS when coming off a road game and facing a foe off a home game. Finally, playing on any NFL home team in Game Two coming off a loss if they were a playoff team last season and they are facing a division opponent coming off a win is a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2010.

Rating: 3 Units

Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins is 28-9-1 ATS when his team is coming off a loss and facing a greater than .400 opponent coming off a win, including 7-1-1 ATS within the first four games of the season. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in home openers the past six seasons, and 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS at home in Game Two of the season. Philadelphia comes into this one banged up defensively and defending Super Bowl losers standing 26-45-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss, including 17-37-1 ATS when favored by 10 or fewer points.  Finally, Minnesota is 8-0-2 ATS as a dog of more than 6 points when coming off a SU favorite loss and taking on an opponent coming off a win.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Jets hosts division rival Buffalo sporting a long-term 8-5-1 ATS mark at home on Monday nights in division battles. They also bring a nifty 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS mark in this series into this contest, including 4-0 SUATS as a competitive dog of 4 or fewer points. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers enters on a nine-game win skein on Mondays. He is also 6-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. Finally, the Jets are 22-10-1 SU and 24-9 ATS of late, including 6-0 ATS in season opening games the past six years

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The architect of the Cowboys’ offense, Kellen Moore, who has moved on to take over the offensive coordinator duties with the Chargers in Los Angeles this season. Over Moore’s four years as offensive coordinator in Dallas (2019-2022), the Cowboys’ offense totaled the 2nd most yards (391 per game) and 2nd most points (27.7 per game) in the NFL. However, Dallas is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS away against quadruple avenging opponents, including 0-4 ATS in division games. New York is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home when seeking quadruple revenge, including 4-0 SUATS in division contests

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia will face the league’s toughest schedule, by measurement of each opponent’s projected season win total. By this criterion alone, teams carrying this sort of added weight have fallen short in the 6 years we’ve been charting the theory, going 47-41 SU and 40-46-2 ATS overall that season, including 10-24-1 ATS as a favorite. Remember, Philly faced the league’s softest schedule last season, and it helped land them a spot in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. Keep in mind as well that playing against the defending Super Bowl loser if they are away in Game One of the season is 15-2 ATS. Additionally, the Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games, look for the Hoodie’s 12-3 outright record at home in season openers to serve as a tall task for the Eagles.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is coming off 3 straight winning seasons for 1st time since 1997-2003 (7 straight). However, they lost 6 of their last 7 games in '22 w/ their only win being a TD-less 11-6 win over the Jets in week 18. 1-4 in games not started by Tua last year. Last we saw the Chargers, they blew a 27-0 2nd quarter lead in Jacksonville before going down 31-30. They are the 1st team in NFL playoff history to lose a game with 5+ turnover margin. Herbert , 2nd player ever w/ 25+ TD passes in each of his 1st 3 seasons (P Manning). He has more PY (14,089) than any player in NFL history thru 1st 3 seasons. However, the Dolphins are 9-2 ATS as AFC West dogs and 8-2 ATS in season openers, and the Chargers 1-10 ATS non-division home chalk of four or fewer points, and just 1-5 ATS versus the AFC East.

Rating: 3 Units

San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in season openers the last six years, and 1-6 ATS in games before facing division rival Los Angeles Rams. Additionally, NFL season opening favorites who win 15 or games last season are 2-10 ATS as road chalk of fewer than five points. Finally, Pittsburgh is 10-2-2 ATS as a non-division home dog log under Mike Tomlin, including 4-0-1 ATS against foes that won 14-plus game the previous season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lions have struggled at 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-division games on Thursdays. We realize the defending champs were 7-3 SU but 0-10 ATS in one-score games last season, but evidence has it this should not be the case tonight. Not when you consider Andy Reid’s 6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division foes – with every win by double-digits. And note that the Chiefs are looking to become the third team to reach four Super Bowls in a five-year span, along with the 1990-93 Bills and the 2014-18 Patriots.

Rating: 3 Units

When it comes to handicapping the Super Bowl, this much we know for sure: winning the NFL MVP award has been the kiss of death for quarterbacks in Super Bowl games. Our all-knowing database confirms the fact that MVP winning quarterbacks have struggled in the big game since the inception of the Super Bowl in 1967. Collectively these NFL MVP Super Bowl quarterbacks are 6-15 SU and 5-14-2 ATS in all games, including 0-8 SU and ATS since 2002.  In addition, we love it when the top-ranked defense in the league (read: Eagles) matches up with the No. 1 offense (read: Chiefs) in a Super Bowl. When considering that teams with the better overall defense have won a whopping 46 of the previous 56 Super Bowls, it’s not surprising to learn that the seven previous teams owning the better scoring defense (read: Eagles) are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in head-to-head games.

Rating: 3 Units

If there’s one team that has the Chiefs’ number, it’s the Bengals with three wins in a row – all by 3 points, and all as underdogs – in just over a year. It sets up a fourth meeting in 13 months between these two wishful squads. The pressure to extend the skein doesn’t bother head coach Zac Taylor, though. It’s his contention that, “We only have to beat them one time in a row.” Given Andy Reid’s 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS record in games with triple revenge (7-1 ATS at home), including 5-0 ATS at home off a win and 5-0 SUATS off an ATS loss of fewer than 4 points, we see one in a row coming to a halt today. Yes, we were as wrong as the day is long fading the Bengals last week as we fully expected their glaring lack of success against fellow playoff squads to bite them in Buffalo. Instead, the Bills’ resolve in over-relying on Josh Allen alone did them in as Cincinnati executed a perfect game plan. Today, though, trying to dispose of soon-to-be league MVP Patrick Mahomes is a horse of a different color. Mahomes’ 72 wins in the last five seasons is second only to Tom Brady for the most in any five-year span (77 wins from 2003-07), and he is 9-1 ATS in his NFL career when not laying points. Wobbly ankle and all, we’re not about to go against Mahomes.

Rating: 3 Units

A suddenly seasoned QB Brock Purdy is in deeper waters than he’s been in his young career, but thanks to a promise fulfilled by the San Francisco defense, he’s answered every demand made of him. However, playoff teams coming off consecutive SUATS wins who were bounced in a championship game the previous year (San Francisco) are 20-1 SUATS since 1985 as either a favorite or as a dog of less than 3 points versus foes off a SUATS win. 

Rating: 2 Units

NFL teams entering the Divisional Round of the playoffs are 0-4 SUATS since 1990 when on an 11-game exact win streak. The question is does that outweigh the fact that NFL playoff teams playing in a fourth consecutive road game have gone 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS since 1980? It’s a decision you’ll need to make before plunging in on this contest. Meanwhile, Dallas arrives behind a career-best 143.3 QB Rating feat by QB Dak Prescott in its Monday night win over Tampa Bay. It snapped an 8-game road playoff losing skein by the Cowboys spanning 28 years as they bring a 3-13-1 SU and 5-12 ATS playoff road log into this fray. The good news on the Cowboys front is that head coach Mike McCarthy’s 4-0 ATS postseason dog log against greater than .750 opponents offsets Kyle Shanahan’s dizzying 6-1 ATS career mark in the playoffs. So where do we turn here – fade the table-setting stat or fade Prescott off a career-best effort? When push comes to shove we’ll always play against players or teams coming off record-setting performances. Plus, we’ll always side with teams sporting the better defense, and in this case the better offense, too. We simply can’t ignore Frisco’s 16-2 ITS (In The Stats) mark this season, tops in the NFL. Remember, the Niners are still a playoff home team that lost outright in a title game the previous season and these teams are 19-2 SU and 18-3 ATS since 1980 in games when both squads are coming off SUATS wins. Finally, playing on any NFL home favorite in the Divisional Round of the playoffs off a double-digit win who won 12+ games last season if they are facing a foe coming off one win are a perfect 10-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Bengals QB Joe Burrow is now 4-1 SUATS in the postseason, including 3-0 ATS when taking points. He’s also 16-6-2 ATS overall as a dog, including 9-0 ATS the last nine games – not to mention 3-1 SUATS versus AFC East foes (favored in all), including 3-0 SUATS the last three meetings The real problem for Cincy, though, is the Bengals are now 1-6 In The Stats against fellow playoff teams this season, while losing the total yards the last three games against the same ilk over 100 YPG each (average 139 YPG). And their offensive line is down to two original starters with LT Jonah Williams out with a dislocated kneecap. Yuck. Nonetheless, form takes precedence over the trends. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

When it comes to same-season double revenge for division teams in NFL playoff contests, they are just 7-13 SU and 9-10-1 ATS since 1990. But these same double revengers are 6-1-1 ATS as dog of more than 6 points. New York is 11-2 ATS dog log under Brian Daboll, and were involved in a league-high 14 one-score games, going 9-4-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in those contests, which goes hand-in-hand with the fact that a staggering 45% of games this season (122 of 271) were decided by 6 points or fewer – the most since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002. In the Eagles’ favor, playoff hosts are 37-10 SU and 29-18 ATS since 1990 when facing invaders coming off consecutive away games. And yes, like San Fran, Philadelphia owns the magic elixir when it comes to projecting Super Bowl participants, namely a Top 5-ranked offense and defense. So, while it’s hard to fade the league’s No. 1 overall defense, the points are too attractive for one team on a roll and the other on a slide.

Rating: 2 Units

Jacksonville is stuck in Kansas City against the top-seeded Chiefs knowing they are 0-3 SUATS against QB Patrick Mahomes. They also take on Andy Reid and his stalwart 29-6 SU and 22-13 ATS overall career mark in games with an added week of rest advantage, including 6-1 outright at home in the postseason. Reid will be going up against his former quarterback Doug Pederson, who was only 3-14 as a starting QB in the league but brings a salty 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS career mark as a head coach in the playoffs. We realize the Chiefs’ gaudy 0-10 ATS mark in one score games this season is troubling but we also know that 15 of Andy Reid’s 19 career postseason wins have been by double-digit margins. And Travis Kelce has to love the fact that the Jags were the 3rd worst ranked team in the league in yards per reception to tight ends

Rating: 2 Units

Prescott was 14-for-37, while the Cowboys’ rushing game averaged just 2.4 yards per rush on 27 total attempts in last week’s uninspiring loss at Washington. Note that Tom Brady is a 19-time division champion and is 7-0 outright in his career against the Cowboys. We realize that losing teams are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in the postseason, but they are 3-0 ATS at home. If fact, hosts are 6-0 ATS in games involving losing squads. Sealing the deal is the fact that playing against any away team in the NFL Wild Card Round of the playoffs if they are coming off a loss of 14 or more points (Dallas) is 14-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

The Ravens are 13-2 ATS away in same-season division revenge affairs. Meanwhile, a closer look at the ultra-hot Bengals shows they’ve been outgained in 5 of the 6 games they played this season against fellow playoff teams. Not good news for a team that was a Super Bowl Loser last year and considering they are 6-14-2 ATS in playoff openers when coming off win. Coupled with teams in right-back-same season revenge being 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS when coming off a loss of 5 or fewer points. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants return to the postseason for the first time since 2016 but bring a 22-8 ATS playoff record since 1982 into this scrum – including 15-4 ATS as a dog. On the fl ip side, the Norsemen are 8-17 SU and 9-15-1 ATS in the postseason since 1989, including 0-9 ATS when facing foes coming off a loss. Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins has made three starts in the playoffs during his NFL career, going 1-2 SUATS, including 0-1 SUATS as a favorite. Note that Wild Card round dogs of 3 or fewer points, seeking same-season revenge, are 12-4-1 ATS. With it, Big Blue certainly remembers dropping a 27-24 decision here just three weeks ago on a 61-yard field goal at the final gun, a game in which they outstated the Vikes by 92 yards. Look for the G-Men to improve on their 10-2 ATS dog log under head coach Brian Daboll. Go ahead and grab the points

Rating: 2 Units

The Fish have gone 0-4 SUATS in postseason games since and are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS on the playoff road by an average loss margin of 22 PPG. We certainly don’t want any of that, not in frigid Buffalo as the Dolphins are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS away in outside stadiums in January since 1990, as well as 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS in Buffalo when arriving off a SUATS home win. You can rest assured the Bills will play the Damar Hamlin card throughout the postseason. In addition, Buffalo is the only team in the playoffs that out-yarded each of the other playoff teams they faced this season. With Bills Mafia backers 31-9-4 ATS in games Buffalo wins outright as a favorite behind Josh Allen.

Rating: 2 Units

AFC South champion Jaguars, the first team since the 2008 Dolphins to win a division the season after having the league’s worst record. Pederson also shines in the postseason, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as a playoff dog. Coupled with the fact that Wild Card home pick or dogs are 12-3 ATS, look for the Bolts to short-circuit here.

Rating: 2 Units

Home teams in their initial NFL playoff game who lost at home in a conference championship game last season are 27-2 SU and 21-7-1 ATS in Game One in these contests if they won a dozen of more games last season. The Seahawks enter as one of seven playoff teams this year that missed the postseason in 2021. However, double digit dogs in the Wild Card round with same-season revenge are just 1-5 ATS – which makes for only one way to look here.

Rating: 2 Units

Detroit walks onto Lambeau Field having won seven of their last nine games, and at 8-8 on the season will not only need to beat the 8-8 Packers today but will also need the 8-8 Seahawks to lose against the 5-11 Rams. Sure, while this happening is unlikely, either way the 2022 season has been a resounding success for Dan Campbell and the Lions. Adding to the karma, the Lions are 9-0 ATS in their last nine division dukeouts, but the Packers are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as a host in this series when Detroit is coming off a win. Given the fact that no team has ever made the NFL playoffs after a 1-6 start, and the Packers own the clearest path to the playoffs (they own the tiebreaker over Seattle), we don’t see them losing this contest. Covering it is another matter. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Chargers are just 9-27 SU as visitors in this series, including 5-23 outright when they sport a win percentage of less than .666. Couple that with a deeply disappointed Denver crew looking to end a sour season on an uptick that stands17-8 SU and 21-3-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a division contest, including 14-1-1 ATS versus sub .700 opponents, and we have your winner.

Rating: 2 Units

What we know for sure is that the Bills’ mental frame of mind is not where it needs to be today. That and the fact they are just 6-16 ATS as a division favorite of 7 or more points, including 1-11 ATS versus greater than .250 opponents. With the Pats 6-1 ATS off a home game against foes coming off a road game, as well as 5-1 ATS when coming off a division home contest, we also know that Bill Belichick is 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS in final games of the regular season with New England, including 4-0 ATS as a dog. 

AFC Division Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Pickett pulled another rabbit out of the hat in last week’s thrilling comeback win over the Ravens in Baltimore to keep alive their aforementioned chances outlined above. The trends work in the Burghers favor today, too, as Pittsburgh is 30-8 SU and 24-12-2 ATS at home with a .500 or fewer record when coming off a home game, as well as 7-1 SUATS with revenge in this series, including 6-0 ATS when the Browns sport a losing record. On the other side of the fi eld, Cleveland is 1-11 ATS when coming off a non-division road game and 0-8 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a win. With that, we’ll side with the Black and Gold against Big Brown as they get their revenge today. Finally, consider that Mike Tomlin is 19-5 SU and 18-6 ATS at home in his career in games when both teams are coming off a SUATS win, including 9-0 SUATS from Game 12 out.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Brady is clearly programmed to break every NFL passing record in the book. In his best outing of the year – 432 yards and three TDs passing, one rushing TD – he completed 34 passes Sunday, adding yet another record to his seemingly endless collection. In the process he won his 19th division title, as the Bucs are now back-to-back division champs for the fi rst time in team history. Atlanta enters as a team playing out the string, just 2-6 SUATS and ITS in its last eight games while throwing green QB Desmond Ridder to the wolves. With the Dirty Birds just 2-13 ATS at home coming off a home game and Brady 3-0 ATS in his career as a dog in season finales, and finally NFL .500 dogs are 5-0 ATS in final games of the season when coming off a win

Rating: 3 Units

The fact of the matter is Stidham sliced up the NFL’s best defense. Given the Chiefs’ 0-6 ATS mark of late against sub .500 division foes, while also understanding since winning Super Bowl LIV, the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-27-1 ATS in one-score games, including 0-18-1 ATS against avenging foes., look for the Raiders to improve on their 9-1 ATS record at home against AFC West foes who are not coming off a win of more than three points. If that doesn't seal the deal consider that playing on  any NFL division home dog in its final game of the season if they were a playoff team last season and if they are seeking revenge from a .600 or greater opponent is 15-2 since 1980.

NFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home when the Packers are riding a three game win streak. He’s also 32-7-1 SU and 28-12 ATS at home in division games in his NFL career (4-0 SUATS this season), including 18-1 SU and 15-4 ATS in games in which the Packers sport a sub .666 win percentage. Toss in his 29-19-1 ATS mark in games when the Packers own a losing record, including 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS versus .750 or greater foes (5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS at home) and the task looks almost insurmountable for the Vikings today. Sure, Minnesota holds down the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff picture, but the fact remains they rank DEAD LAST in the league in overall defense and – remember this - no team has ever won an NFL playoff game that owned the worst defense in the league. And don’t fall asleep on the fact that the Vikings are 1-15 ATS in their last sixteen conference losses. Speaking of which, QB Aaron Rodgers is 15-1 SU from Game Thirteen out during the regular season.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

USA TODAY called out the fact that the Jets handed the Jaguars a Christmas gift two years ago when they foolishly rallied to defeat the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20, just before Christmas and granting them access to QB Trevor Lawrence as the No. 1 overall draft pick. Talk about a gift that keeps on giving to Jacksonville, it’s one that may well haunt the Jets for the next 10-15 years. What may also trouble the Big Planes today is their recent 7-16 SU and 5-18 ATS record in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 1-10 SUATS versus greater than .400 foes. That fits perfectly into the Seahawks’ 10-0 ATS record in home games when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Then there is head coach Pete Carroll, who is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a losing record and 4-0 SUATS versus sub .600 foes – and our favorite holiday ‘Caroller’ has also never lost four consecutive home games. Finally, consider that playing on any NFL non-division home dog or ‘pick’ if they are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games is 112-82-7 ATS since 1980. Better yet, put these non-division hosts up against a sub. 500 foe in this role and the black ink turns a deep shade of green, going 35-19-3 ATS, including 16-1-2 ATS when they sport a win percentage over .100 and were a dog of 6-plus points in their last game.

Rating: 3 Units

So, while the Dolphins control their playoff chances with wins in each of their final two contests, it will all likely be dependent on the status of Tagovailoa who has entered concussion protocol for the second time this season. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater will assume the reins, with the tune “Bridge over Troubled Waters” never more prevalent than it is here. While he brings a 42-23 ATS overall career record in NFL starts into this contest, including 23-8 ATS away, the fact of the matter is he is just 4-8 SUATS in his last twelve starts, including 0-1 SUATS with the Fish this season. Should the winner of this game win next week they will nail down a playoff berth. With that, consider that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 20-6 SUATS in Last Home Games, including 7-0 ATS with revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

Jags enter 13-6 ATS in games with quintuple-plus division revenge as they have now lost 9 straight times to Houston. Unlike years past, Jacksonville controls its playoff destiny, as a loss here will not matter since next week’s home contest against Tennessee will ultimately decide the AFC South title. What arguably matters more is head coach Doug Pederson would like to extend the Jags win skein to four in a row. But the fact of the matter is each of their last three wins came in underdog roles and today they change clothes. Teams in this role are just 7-16-2 ATS since 1999, including 3-11-1 ATS from Game Ten out. So, while Jack’s muscles are bulging at the moment, we can’t ignore the elephant in the room, namely that the Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS against foes coming off a SU underdog win.

Rating: 2 Units

We realize things are looking rosy for the Chargers, who close out the campaign against three 4-win lightweights in the Colts, the Rams and the Broncos. The Bolts are 4-0-1 ATS away Mondays, and 12-2-2 ATS away versus AFC South. On the other side of the bed, the Colts are 0-3 ATS home on Mondays, 1-7 ATS after scoring 35-plus points, and 1-7 ATS as home dogs 4 or fewer points. However, while it all looks like an avalanche of evidence working against the Colts, the Chargers are still a team that cannot blow out opponents, only winning one game all year by more than six points, and that came back in Week 4 against the awful Texans. Look for the Horseshoes to toss a surprise ringer tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucs’ six wins this season, the last five have been against losing teams a 26-44 winning record combined. Through it all, the GOAT who refused to hang ‘em up when he had the perfect opportunity, leads a team that is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite, 1-7 ATS last eight games on Sundays, 1-5-1 ATS versus NFC West foes and 1-5 ATS versus sub .400 opponents. Sheesh. While the Cardinals may be going thru the motions, at least they bring a 9-1 ATS log as home dogs of more than 2 points, and a 4-0 ATS record in this series.

Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

For the first time in over two-and-half months the Pack finally have a winning streak. The Cheese Heads are the No. 10 seed in the NFC, currently 1.5 games behind the Commanders for the NFC’s final wild-card spot. Green Bay enters 6-1 ATS as a dog in games when favored last game. Miami returns home off a winless three game road trek knowing they are 0-4 ATS coming off three straight road games, as well as 0-4 ATS when coming off three losses. And that’s not to mention the fact they are 1-5 ATS as a host in this series. With Rodgers suddenly smelling playoff blood, know that he is 9-4-1 ATS as a dog from game 15 out, including 6-0-1 ATS when the Packers own a win percentage of .666 or less.

Rating: 2 Units

In the cold, cold confines of Pittsburgh, on a Saturday night with Santa set to take off on his annual snow covered Christmas Eve delivery run, expect the fair-weathered dome protected Raiders to succumb to another Mike Tomlin push here tonight. For openers, QB Kenny Pickett is back for the Black and Gold where he stands 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career against sub .500 foes while the Burghers are 6-2 ATS on Saturdays. With Vegas just 3-12 ATS versus losing foes, look for the Tomln tribute to continue tonight.

Rating: 3 Units

The Cowboys, who have clinched a playoff berth, are 6-12 outright in Prescott’s NFL career in games in which he has more turnovers than touchdown passes, including 0-3 SUATS this season. The problem today for the Cowboys, though, is Dallas is just 2-10 ATS and 4-8 ATS at home in this series when Philly sports the better record. Yes, there are a lot of back-and-forth numbers bandying about in this fray, but until Dallas improves its to 8-25-1 ATS mark as a home favorite when coming off a loss, we’ll be flying with the Eagles. Especially knowing that Dallas is 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS at home on Saturdays during the regular season since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Vikes have clinched the division and a playoff spot s0 can they thwart the path of others looking to earn their playoff stripes? Owning the league’s 32nd-ranked (worst) defense, they concede all of the defensive numbers to the Giants in this contest. Minny has been out-yarded in 5 of their last 6 games and are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven games against NFC East opponents. With the G-Men barely clinging to the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff pictures, and 7-1 ATS on Saturdays, look for Big Blue to improve on its 7-2 ATS mark as a dog under rookie head coach Brian Daboll. Grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Meet the Lions, who are at the precipice of becoming the first NFL team to make the playoffs after starting the season 1-6. They are currently riding the arm of Jared Goff, the only QB in the league with no turnovers the last six games. Winners of six of its previous seven games, while going 7-0 ATS, they are on a major roll, and we’re not interested in stepping in front of them with a team that is 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS in games when coming off one loss exact. Additionally Carolina is 0-6 ATS in Last Home Games and the Lions are 5-2 ATS on the NFC South road.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Currently the Pats are the No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff picture but they must close out the season against the likes of these 10-4 Bengals, 8-6 Miami, and 11-3 Buffalo. Thus, it starts today against a Cincinnati squad who enters just 7-29 SU and 12-22-2 ATS away against the AFC East, including 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Yes, the Hoodies need to roll up their sleeves and get to work against a Joe Burrow-led Bengals’ bunch on an AFC best 6-game win skein. However, consider that playing against any NFL team that is 6-0 SUATS in its last six games if they are facing a sub .700 non-division opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980.

Trevor Lawrence is a kind of unhinged Justin Herbert with a more imaginative offensive coordinator, making them extremely dangerous behind a head coach whose been there and done that. Since Week 9, Lawrence leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and completion percentage, having thrown 14 touchdowns and just one interception. Those are numbers Jets’ head coach Robert Saleh would die for these days. And speaking of dying, Saleh completely blew last week’s game when he mismanaged a full array of three timeouts with under two minutes remaining in last week’s puzzling loss against the Lions. Despite the Jags’ putrid road record (2-21 SU in their last 23 away games), we’ll rely instead on playing against any NFL .500 favorite off a loss in Game Fifteen of the season, that's because teams in this situation are 16-45-4 ATS in this role dating back to 1980. Worse, send these .500 choke artists home off a loss and they fall to 7-28-2 ATS. And if these same teams are facing a sub .500 opponent they are a heart-stopping 2-19-1 ATS in this role since 1980. So look for the Jags to continue their winning ways at the expense of the league’s biggest quarterback bust since the days of JaMarcus Russell: Zach Wilson.

Rating: 3 Units

Rested home teams on Monday Night games are 25-12 ATS when coming off a SUATS win, including 19-7 ATS as a favorite of 4 or more points. Toss in the fact that the Pack is 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 and you can see where we’re headed. Our QB League check is reminding us that Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents while Mayfield is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in his last five games when coming off a win. We seal the deal with the fact that future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-4-1 ATS when coming off a Bye week in his career, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home.

NFL Upset of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Bengals are 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games, and that may sound good to Joe Public, but not to the savvy handicapper as non-rested NFL teams on a 5-0 SUATS win streak have puked as non-division favorites of 5 or fewer points, going just 10-20-1 ATS in this role. On the other side of this hardto-like take are the Bucs, who were totally throttled in last week’s 28-point loss at San Francisco. It doesn’t get much worse than that. In fact, it was the third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career. And adding more misery, it occurred at the hands of 7th round rookie QB Brock Purdy. By now we all know of Brady’s jaw-dropping 11-1 ATS career mark as a home dog. But don't forget that Tom Brady is 16-3 SU and 18-1 ATS as a pick or dog off a loss in his NFL career, including 10-0 SUATS off a loss of more than 7 points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Broncos have been installed as favorites for the sixth time this season, bringing with it a tawdry 0-5 ATS mark as chalk under head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Yes, it’s Colt McCoy time once again for Arizona, and for our money he’s more than welcome. That’s because he is 3-1 SUATS as a starter with the Cardinals. Coupled with Kingsbury’s 14-9 SU and 16-6-1 ATS road dog log with Zona, including 9-0 ATS versus losing foes. 

Rating: 2 Units

Las Vegas is 1-7 ATS mark when coming off a SU favorite loss, as well as 1-8-1 ATS versus AFC East opponents, and just 1-5 ATS when tackling foes coming off a Monday Night contest. Meanwhile, The Hoodie brings a razor-sharp 9-1 SU and 7-2 ATS career mark in games against any team wearing a Raiders helmet, while winning all four times in games in which the Pats sport the better record.

Rating: 2 Units

This is not a matchup that NFL fans would have circled on their calendars heading into the season, but it is going to be an electric atmosphere on Sunday. I would rather fade the Jets than the Lions right now, especially with some of the injury issues that New York is dealing with, most notably to White, who is out for this game. Detroit’s offense has been among the best in the NFL all year, and the Lions have gotten even better of late. They have covered the spread in six straight games and are the pick to cover the number on Sunday.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence, has over the course of his last three games sport a 111.7 QB Rating with 0 INTs. Meanwhile, the not-so-big news in the Dallas receiver room is that WR TY Hilton will be joining the Cowboys, not Odell Beckham, Jr. The feeling here is OBJ may still be in play for America’s Team, but not until he’s able to take the field. Yes, the Boys are confident, riding an 8-game ITS (In The Stats) win skein entering today’s game. But we can’t ignore that playing against any sub .800 NFL non-division road favorite coming off three straight home games from Game 11 out is 12-1-1 since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Buffalo pulled a win-no cover against the Jets last week, (Miami 0-6 ATS off SUATS loss versus a win-no-cover foe) and now own a one-game lead over the Fish. If you got to see that game, you know the weather in Buffalo was miserable – and it’s going to get worse tonight. All of which spells trouble for the Floridians. Hey, it’s bad enough that they have to play a third straight road game, where they are 1-6 SUATS in this role of late, but it’s borderline criminal to send them up into the arctic-cold of a city that may as well be in Canada. Buffalo QB Josh Allen will take time out from his busy commercial shoots to take care of a little business, namely revenge from a loss to Miami back in September. With the Bills now 5-1 ATS playing at home off a home game, look for the Dolphins to go down again.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colts have dropped three straight, while failing to reach the 20-point mark in scoring. Still, the blowout loss at Dallas was a 4th-quarter fluke (Cowboys outscored Indy, 33-0) and defeats against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia came down to the final minutes. The Colts are on an 11-0 ATS run when playing off a double-digit loss, plus they’ve cashed SEVEN straight tickets versus NFC North opponents. The Colts also counter with the league’s 7th ranked stop unit, 89 YPG superior to that of Minnesota.

Rating: 2 Units

Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 8-2-2 ATS in Thursday pressure cookers. Frisco has failed to cover in three straight Thursday appearances, and the Niners are a lousy 2-7 ATS as favorites versus a foe off a SU favorite loss. Look, we don’t expect Brock Purdy to match last week’s eye-popping performance against a desperate Seattle ‘D’, and 49ers all-world star Deebo Samuel is out with a sprained ankle and MCL, though he is expected back before the playoffs. No Deebo and a 2-game cushion for San Francisco in the division race means the hungry, hungry Seahawks find a way to win tonight.

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

When up against the wall, we’ll back Bilichick with every shot. For openers, he is 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS in his last 15 contests when coming off two losses, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS away. And then there is his 8-1 ATS career record away with a .500 record when coming off a loss. On the flip side, Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury checks in at 12-18 ATS home with the Redbirds, including 5-15 ATS when not taking more than two points. Kingsbury is also 1-3 SUATS on Mondays, including 0-3 SUATS the last three. With the Pats 8-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, there’s no better time to take the Pats. Finally, Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 22-9 SUATS against NFC West foes in his NFL career, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 SUATS versus those coming off a loss

Mismatch of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

So why is it, that the Seahawks a measly 3.5-point favorite at home against the 4-8 Panthers? Is Vegas telling us something? They may be trying, but we’re not buying. Not with Carolina 0-3 SUATS in NFC West division duke outs this season, and 0-3 SUATS the last three games in this series. And not with the Panthers a pussycat-like 0-4 ATS in games when coming off a Bye week. Turn it around and you’ll find a Seahawks squad 7-3 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week. Better yet, the Seahawks are 25-3 SU and 21-6-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Pete Carroll, including 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Brady  is simply the best as an underdog, going 41-17-1 ATS in his illustrious career, including 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and 17-5 ATS when his team is coming off an ATS loss. He also stands 21-6 SU in his career in games in which his team is .500 on the season. Perhaps even more impressive is Brady’s 45-14 SU and 43-12-4 ATS mark in games against foes with a better record, including 24-6 ATS when taking points. With Monday night’s stirring comeback win over the Saints, the Bucs currently hold down the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture while the Niners lay claim to the No. 2 seed. Frisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of fewer than four points and Tampa Bay is 7-1-2 ATS as a dog after being a favorite the previous game. Finally consider that playing against any .666 or greater single-digit NFL regular season home team coming off consecutive home wins if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is 14-2-1 since 1983.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jacksonville squad that stands 0-11 ATS in the second of consecutive away games. Once again we’ll take a stand and back the better team, one who brings a 9-0 ATS record into this division duel in games when both teams were taking points in their last game. Besides, head coach Mike Vrabel has slayed it in his NFL career, going 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in his career, including 6-0-1 ATS when not a double-digit favorite. 

Rating: 2 Units

There have been 26 games that played to an overtime tie in the NFL since 1980. The good news for Big Blue is that home teams not favored by 3 or more points are 9-2 SUATS when coming off a kiss-you-sister-contest, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, 1-5 ATS in their last six division road games, and 2-8 ATS as road chalk of three or more points, and the G-Men 6-2 ATS when seeking revenge in this series, the points are the play in this fray.

Rating: 2 Units

Watson dresses up today sporting a 10-2-1 ATS NFL career mark as a dog of six or fewer points versus sub .700 opposition, as well as 9-3-1 ATS as a road dog against sub .700 foes. Meanwhile, the Bengals enter off last week’s hard-fought battle with the Chiefs at just 1-6 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points, as well as 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season when taking on division foes. 

Rating: 2 Units

It’s now three consecutive wins for the Raiders, with RB Josh Jacobs off another monster game (26 carries, 144 yards, TD), and WR Davante Adams playing up to expectations (eight catches 177 yards, two TDs). The bottom line to this contest is there could be a Baker Mayfield sighting for the Rams tonight (signed but learning a new system), and Los Angeles falls to 2-13 ATS in games when coming off a loss as a dog against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Back the better team as it keeps their playoff hopes alive.

Rating: 2 Units

The Saints have decided to stick with Andy Dalton, it appears, but the veteran signal-caller has not rewarded their faith. He has struggled with turnovers and has certainly suffered from a lack of a consistent running game. Both teams are laboring but the Bucs have more weapons and certainly more incentive and hope of winning this game. I like this line for the Bucs at slightly over a field goal after starting out at almost a touchdown.

AFC Blowout of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Patrick Mahomes is on a path towards an MVP season. Thru 11 games this season he’s completed 66.1% of his passes for 3,585 yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs. Mahomes is also 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in starts during November and December when not favored by more than 3 points. And he’s 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in all games in which the Chiefs are seeking revenge. The revenge we’re referring to: last season’s AFC championship game loss which denied Kansas City a Super Bowl appearance, instead sending the Bengals to the big game. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 3-10 SU and 3-8-2 ATS as a home dog against greater than .400 opponents, including 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points. With the Bengals 3-7 ATS as non-division home dogs of fewer than 6 points.  To cap it all off consider that Kansas City is 40-7 SU in Patrick Mahomes’ NFL starts from November out. He is also 26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Bolts had failed to score a touchdown in their previous 20 fourth-quarter possessions before finding the end zone twice (TD and 2-point conversion) in the game’s final 15 seconds. Now they head to Sin City sporting a 1-5 ATS record as division road chalk, as well as a 2-8 ATS ledger when coming off a spread loss and facing a foe off a spread win. The Black Patches return home with a lofty 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in division games when coming off consecutive SU underdog wins. They are also 13-6 ATS the last nineteen games in this series when taking points, including 6-1 ATS at home. With the Chargers hobbled by the worst Yards Per Rush defense (5.4) in the league, and the Raiders offense gaining 5.2 Yards Finally consider that the Raiders are 11-4 ATS at home in the last fifteen division home games, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS when hosting a foe not off a win of 3 or more points.

Rating: 3 Units

Seattle QB Geno Smith leads all NFL quarterbacks in QBR Rating this season at 108.5. In fact, Smith is 14-5 ATS in his last nineteen NFL starts, including 5-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses. With the shell-of-themselves Rams 0-6 SUATS in this series, as well as 1-8 SUATS as a home dog, and with the Seahawks arriving off back-to-back losses consider that Seattle head coach Peter Carroll is 11-1 SUATS in Game 12 of the season with the Seahawks, including 10-0 SUATS when Seattle is not a double-digit favorite. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Eagles win over the Packers on Sunday night was impressive, to say the least. Not only did they manage to amass 363 rushing yards in the contest, (the eighth most in the Super Bowl era) but the Eagles rushed for 153 yards on 18 carries in the first quarter alone. Then in the fourth quarter, they rushed for 92 yards on another 18 carries. Whew. However, we don’t know if another onslaught of the same magnitude is possible this week against the Titans’ 3rd ranked rush defense, one that is allowing 85 RYPG. In addition, Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in matchups when both teams are coming off non-division battles, and 11-2 ATS as a dog of 5-plus points. The Eagles seal the deal entering with a 1-8 ATS ledger when coming off an ATS win versus a foe coming off an ATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Near double digit chalk role is always a bit scary, but until the Broncos can manufacture any sort of reliable offense, they will continue as a solid "go-against", especially with "over/under" proponents, as the "under" has reaped gold: 10-of-11. If the Broncos had scored 18 pts in each of their games, they would stand at 9-2, & not 3-8. Ravens' 2nd-ranked rushing game should provide be enough "O" to cover the spot. Tied with Cincy atop AFC North, to they cannot afford any slippage.

Prime Time Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The ‘return to the norm’ is simply too strong to overcome as ATS losses begin to pile up with each passing week. With it the Eagles enter this week on a 3-game ATS losing skid while having been out yarded in half of their last six games. Granted, the Packers are facing demons of their own, but Aaron Rodgers thrives in these situations, and we expect nothing less today. With it the Pack checks in 7-1 ATS in game versus .750 or greater foes the past two seasons, as well as 8-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday contest. Meanwhile, the Green Birds enter 1-8 ATS versus foes off a SU home favorite loss, and just 3-8 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. To cap it off, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SUATS as a dog when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus .700 or greater foes.

Rating: 2 Units

If Carroll can guide this team to 10 or more wins and make the postseason sans Wilson and Wagner, he’s almost certain to win Coach of the Year.” Fast forward from June to November and 6-4 Seattle is more than halfway to the 10-win season few thought they could achieve. While the Seahawks have been a major surprise, the 3-7 Raiders have dutifully taken their place as one of the worst teams in the NFL, disappointing eyepatch fans everywhere as they stumble to their fourth losing season in the last five years. Things won’t get any easier after today, either, with Vegas lining up against New England, San Francisco, and Kansas City down the stretch. When it comes to today’s contest, Las Vegas has run out of luck in its last fi ve meetings with NFC West teams, going 1-4 ATS. Not so for Seattle, who boasts a 7-1 ATS record off a SUATS loss versus foes off a SUATS win. It’s not a stretch to suggest that these two are headed in opposite directions, and we won’t be on the one heading south.

Rating: 2 Units

Stamina. It’s something that enables some athletes to keep going when others fall by the wayside. And it’s clearly something that Kliff Kingsbury has not enjoyed in his head coaching career. Kingsbury’s first seven games of the season with Texas Tech: .643, with Arizona .661... rest of the season with Texas Tech .242, with Arizona .323. And that summarizes the state of the Cardinals this season. Obviously, someone has got to go, and it’s either going to be Kingsbury or the eternal malcontent QB Kyler Murray, engineer of the biggest heist this side of Russell Wilson’s robbery of the Denver Broncos. The NFL has been in hot pursuit of Murray as a face of the sport, hoping to prove that someone who can’t see over his offensive linemen can be a star. But the former Oklahoma QB can’t seem to make it to the end of a season without injury or subpar play, and after missing two weeks with a hamstring problem, his return will be too little too late for the 4-7 Cardinals.

Rating: 2 Units

The Commanders are 6-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins as well as 4-1 ATS versus NFC South opponents. Meanwhile, the Dirty Birds enter 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS at home when coming off a win, and are 0-7 ATS in Game Twelve of the campaign. They are also riding a 10-game ITS (In The Stats) losing streak, currently the longest in the NFL.

AFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The ground game has really come to the Bengals aid of late as Nate Davis of the USA TODAY notes that the Bengals one-two running back punch of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, former teammates at Oklahoma, have eight TDs the past two games. But the hottest team in the league – read: Tennessee – also know they are 6-0 ATS off an away game versus a foe also off an away game. They are also 5-0 ATS off a Thursday game. Finally, Tennessee is 12-0 ATS off an ATS win versus a foe off an ATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota was a team that I had overrated heading into its abysmal showing against Dallas, although that turned out worse than anyone could have imagined. The Vikings’ stats do not match their record, as they have actually been outscored overall this season. Plenty of bettors are going to look at the records of these teams and back Minnesota, but I like New England here. The Patriots have quietly been playing very solid football, covering the spread in six of its last seven games. They have the much better defense and have won five straight meetings between these teams.

Rating: 3 Units

Dallas is 31-22-1 all-time on Thanksgiving Day, but only 4-7 SU and 1-10 ATS the last eleven years – including 0-3 SUATS the last three. Meanwhile, the Cowboys return home as an annual Turkey Day host, on the heels of last week’s 37-point win at Minnesota. It was the largest road win in Dallas’ history – and you know how we love fading teams coming off record setting performances. The Boys have now won 11 of their last 12 division games. However, the Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when coming off a SU favorite loss. To clinch it, consider that winning NFL division road dogs with triple revenge from losses in their last three meetings are 12-1 ATS when facing a foe coming off a win of 7 or more points.