Rating: 2 Units

Watson dresses up today sporting a 10-2-1 ATS NFL career mark as a dog of six or fewer points versus sub .700 opposition, as well as 9-3-1 ATS as a road dog against sub .700 foes. Meanwhile, the Bengals enter off last week’s hard-fought battle with the Chiefs at just 1-6 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points, as well as 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season when taking on division foes. 

Rating: 2 Units

It’s now three consecutive wins for the Raiders, with RB Josh Jacobs off another monster game (26 carries, 144 yards, TD), and WR Davante Adams playing up to expectations (eight catches 177 yards, two TDs). The bottom line to this contest is there could be a Baker Mayfield sighting for the Rams tonight (signed but learning a new system), and Los Angeles falls to 2-13 ATS in games when coming off a loss as a dog against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Back the better team as it keeps their playoff hopes alive.

Rating: 2 Units

The Saints have decided to stick with Andy Dalton, it appears, but the veteran signal-caller has not rewarded their faith. He has struggled with turnovers and has certainly suffered from a lack of a consistent running game. Both teams are laboring but the Bucs have more weapons and certainly more incentive and hope of winning this game. I like this line for the Bucs at slightly over a field goal after starting out at almost a touchdown.

AFC Blowout of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Patrick Mahomes is on a path towards an MVP season. Thru 11 games this season he’s completed 66.1% of his passes for 3,585 yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs. Mahomes is also 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in starts during November and December when not favored by more than 3 points. And he’s 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in all games in which the Chiefs are seeking revenge. The revenge we’re referring to: last season’s AFC championship game loss which denied Kansas City a Super Bowl appearance, instead sending the Bengals to the big game. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 3-10 SU and 3-8-2 ATS as a home dog against greater than .400 opponents, including 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points. With the Bengals 3-7 ATS as non-division home dogs of fewer than 6 points.  To cap it all off consider that Kansas City is 40-7 SU in Patrick Mahomes’ NFL starts from November out. He is also 26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Bolts had failed to score a touchdown in their previous 20 fourth-quarter possessions before finding the end zone twice (TD and 2-point conversion) in the game’s final 15 seconds. Now they head to Sin City sporting a 1-5 ATS record as division road chalk, as well as a 2-8 ATS ledger when coming off a spread loss and facing a foe off a spread win. The Black Patches return home with a lofty 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in division games when coming off consecutive SU underdog wins. They are also 13-6 ATS the last nineteen games in this series when taking points, including 6-1 ATS at home. With the Chargers hobbled by the worst Yards Per Rush defense (5.4) in the league, and the Raiders offense gaining 5.2 Yards Finally consider that the Raiders are 11-4 ATS at home in the last fifteen division home games, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS when hosting a foe not off a win of 3 or more points.

Rating: 3 Units

Seattle QB Geno Smith leads all NFL quarterbacks in QBR Rating this season at 108.5. In fact, Smith is 14-5 ATS in his last nineteen NFL starts, including 5-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses. With the shell-of-themselves Rams 0-6 SUATS in this series, as well as 1-8 SUATS as a home dog, and with the Seahawks arriving off back-to-back losses consider that Seattle head coach Peter Carroll is 11-1 SUATS in Game 12 of the season with the Seahawks, including 10-0 SUATS when Seattle is not a double-digit favorite. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Eagles win over the Packers on Sunday night was impressive, to say the least. Not only did they manage to amass 363 rushing yards in the contest, (the eighth most in the Super Bowl era) but the Eagles rushed for 153 yards on 18 carries in the first quarter alone. Then in the fourth quarter, they rushed for 92 yards on another 18 carries. Whew. However, we don’t know if another onslaught of the same magnitude is possible this week against the Titans’ 3rd ranked rush defense, one that is allowing 85 RYPG. In addition, Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in matchups when both teams are coming off non-division battles, and 11-2 ATS as a dog of 5-plus points. The Eagles seal the deal entering with a 1-8 ATS ledger when coming off an ATS win versus a foe coming off an ATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Near double digit chalk role is always a bit scary, but until the Broncos can manufacture any sort of reliable offense, they will continue as a solid "go-against", especially with "over/under" proponents, as the "under" has reaped gold: 10-of-11. If the Broncos had scored 18 pts in each of their games, they would stand at 9-2, & not 3-8. Ravens' 2nd-ranked rushing game should provide be enough "O" to cover the spot. Tied with Cincy atop AFC North, to they cannot afford any slippage.

Prime Time Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The ‘return to the norm’ is simply too strong to overcome as ATS losses begin to pile up with each passing week. With it the Eagles enter this week on a 3-game ATS losing skid while having been out yarded in half of their last six games. Granted, the Packers are facing demons of their own, but Aaron Rodgers thrives in these situations, and we expect nothing less today. With it the Pack checks in 7-1 ATS in game versus .750 or greater foes the past two seasons, as well as 8-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday contest. Meanwhile, the Green Birds enter 1-8 ATS versus foes off a SU home favorite loss, and just 3-8 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. To cap it off, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SUATS as a dog when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus .700 or greater foes.

Rating: 2 Units

If Carroll can guide this team to 10 or more wins and make the postseason sans Wilson and Wagner, he’s almost certain to win Coach of the Year.” Fast forward from June to November and 6-4 Seattle is more than halfway to the 10-win season few thought they could achieve. While the Seahawks have been a major surprise, the 3-7 Raiders have dutifully taken their place as one of the worst teams in the NFL, disappointing eyepatch fans everywhere as they stumble to their fourth losing season in the last five years. Things won’t get any easier after today, either, with Vegas lining up against New England, San Francisco, and Kansas City down the stretch. When it comes to today’s contest, Las Vegas has run out of luck in its last fi ve meetings with NFC West teams, going 1-4 ATS. Not so for Seattle, who boasts a 7-1 ATS record off a SUATS loss versus foes off a SUATS win. It’s not a stretch to suggest that these two are headed in opposite directions, and we won’t be on the one heading south.

Rating: 2 Units

Stamina. It’s something that enables some athletes to keep going when others fall by the wayside. And it’s clearly something that Kliff Kingsbury has not enjoyed in his head coaching career. Kingsbury’s first seven games of the season with Texas Tech: .643, with Arizona .661... rest of the season with Texas Tech .242, with Arizona .323. And that summarizes the state of the Cardinals this season. Obviously, someone has got to go, and it’s either going to be Kingsbury or the eternal malcontent QB Kyler Murray, engineer of the biggest heist this side of Russell Wilson’s robbery of the Denver Broncos. The NFL has been in hot pursuit of Murray as a face of the sport, hoping to prove that someone who can’t see over his offensive linemen can be a star. But the former Oklahoma QB can’t seem to make it to the end of a season without injury or subpar play, and after missing two weeks with a hamstring problem, his return will be too little too late for the 4-7 Cardinals.

Rating: 2 Units

The Commanders are 6-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins as well as 4-1 ATS versus NFC South opponents. Meanwhile, the Dirty Birds enter 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS at home when coming off a win, and are 0-7 ATS in Game Twelve of the campaign. They are also riding a 10-game ITS (In The Stats) losing streak, currently the longest in the NFL.

AFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The ground game has really come to the Bengals aid of late as Nate Davis of the USA TODAY notes that the Bengals one-two running back punch of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, former teammates at Oklahoma, have eight TDs the past two games. But the hottest team in the league – read: Tennessee – also know they are 6-0 ATS off an away game versus a foe also off an away game. They are also 5-0 ATS off a Thursday game. Finally, Tennessee is 12-0 ATS off an ATS win versus a foe off an ATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota was a team that I had overrated heading into its abysmal showing against Dallas, although that turned out worse than anyone could have imagined. The Vikings’ stats do not match their record, as they have actually been outscored overall this season. Plenty of bettors are going to look at the records of these teams and back Minnesota, but I like New England here. The Patriots have quietly been playing very solid football, covering the spread in six of its last seven games. They have the much better defense and have won five straight meetings between these teams.

Rating: 3 Units

Dallas is 31-22-1 all-time on Thanksgiving Day, but only 4-7 SU and 1-10 ATS the last eleven years – including 0-3 SUATS the last three. Meanwhile, the Cowboys return home as an annual Turkey Day host, on the heels of last week’s 37-point win at Minnesota. It was the largest road win in Dallas’ history – and you know how we love fading teams coming off record setting performances. The Boys have now won 11 of their last 12 division games. However, the Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when coming off a SU favorite loss. To clinch it, consider that winning NFL division road dogs with triple revenge from losses in their last three meetings are 12-1 ATS when facing a foe coming off a win of 7 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury is the only coach in NFL history with a better outright record as a dog than as a favorite with the Cardinals, going 17-16-1 SU taking points and 11-14 outright laying them.  McCoy is 3-0 ATS as a dog as a starting quarterback for Arizona – winning all three games outright. Murray is 3-1-1 ATS in his starts in this series, including 2-0-1 ATS as a dog. On the Niners side, Frisco is 8-1 ATS on Mondays in division games, but only 1-7- 1 ATS as of late in this series.

Rating: 3 Units

The Chiefs enter this fray knowing they are 14-3 SU in the last 17 games in this series. Meanwhile, KC is 10-3 ATS as division road chalk of 10 or fewer points, while LA is 3-9 ATS the last dozen games as a home dog. We’d love to hop on the arm of Justin Herbert as he looks to avenge a 27-24 loss at Arrowhead in Game Two this season, but the fact of the matter is both Herbert and the Chargers are struggling, and the Bolts are only 4-38 ATS as home dogs in games they lose outright. 

Divisional Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Bengals are 8-0 ATS when coming off a non-division game when facing a foe that is also coming off a non-division game, as well as 7-0 ATS off a win versus foes coming off a win. And then there is Burrow, who brings a 9-1 SUATS career record into this game when facing an NFL opponent coming off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, the Black-and-Gold are at home following last week’s home win with a 0-4 SUATS ledger at home when coming a home game. Mike Tomlin’s troops are also 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season while being outgained an average -85 YPG. Finally the Bengals are 25-1 ATS in their last twenty-six division games they win outright

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Mike McCarthy, not the sharpest knife in the NFL coaches’ drawer, decided to go for it on fourth-and-3 from Green Bay’s 35-yard line in overtime rather than kicking a field goal to go up by 3 points. The Cowboys failed to convert and the Packers then proceeded to kick the game-winning field goal. Another knock at the door is Dallas’ 3-10 ATS log in this series, including 1-10 ATS without rest. To clinch it all, Dallas is 3-18-1 ATS as a conference favorite versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-11 SU and 0-13-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 4 points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills are 31-11 SU and 32-10 ATS when coming off three consecutive ATS losses, and they are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 8 points when coming off a home loss. In addition, NFL non-division home favorites who scored 30-plus points and lost as a favorite are 14-5 ATS the following game since 1980. For what it’s worth, despite hitting a recent two-game speed bump, Buffalo is winning the total yards on an average of +104 yards per contest this season. It’s closest pursuer, San Francisco, is 25 YPG lighter than the Bills. With QB Josh Allen’s MVP chances having taken a major hit, look for a bounce back.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s hard to fathom the 4-6 Falcons would be only two spots out of an NFC postseason berth were the playoffs to begin this week. And that’s behind a team that is being out-yarded -82 in net YPG (only Houston is worse), thanks to a league worst 1-9 ITS (In The Stats) record this season. And it’s beginning to catch up with them, as their 4-game ATS losing streak waters down a 6-0 ATS mark to start the season. With Atlanta 1-7 ATS against NFC North opposition, we’ll back the dog today.It’s hard to fathom the 4-6 Falcons would be only two spots out of an NFC postseason berth were the playoffs to begin this week. And that’s behind a team that is being out-yarded -82 in net YPG (only Houston is worse), thanks to a league worst 1-9 ITS (In The Stats) record this season. And it’s beginning to catch up with them, as their 4-game ATS losing streak waters down a 6-0 ATS mark to start the season. With Atlanta 1-7 ATS against NFC North opposition, we’ll back the dog today.

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in this series when both teams are coming off a win. On the flip side, Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in games in which they were an underdog in their last game and their opponent was favored in its last contest. The emergence of Packers rookie WR Christian Watson may be just what the doctor ordered as he scored three touchdowns to go with 8 receptions and 107 yards in last week’s stirring overtime win against Dallas. With QB Aaron Rodgers 5-1 SUATS in his last six games following a SU underdog win. To clinch is, Green Bay is 7-0 SUATS in their last seven Thursday games, and Tennessee is 0-4 SUATS in their last four appearances on Thursdays.

Rating: 3 Units

The Cowboys bring with them a league-best 33 sacks in eight games led by game-wrecker Micah Parsons. Dallas is rested following its bye week. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games with four of those victories achieved when back up quarterback Cooper Rush was under center. Mike McCarthy has had this matchup circled from the start in his return to Green Bay having been the Packers’ head coach for 13 seasons. Dak Prescott is back in healthy form. The Packers won’t have injured Rashan Gary, their best pass rusher. Despite having Kenny Clark at nose tackle, the Packers’ disappointing run defense ranks 26th. Green Bay’s special teams still remain bad, too. There is a bigger gap between these two teams than the point spread indicates

Rating; 2 Units

Mike Vrabel’s supermen have out-yarded just one foe this year while losing the stats an average -86 net YPG. For what it’s worth, only Houston and Pittsburgh are worse, and they own a collective record of 3-12-1 this season. Making matters worse for the Nashville cats, the well-rested Broncos are 5-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week, as well as 7-1 ATS in this series. In addition, Denver sports a 7-1 ATS mark in this series, including 5-0 ATS in games in which it has a losing record. With the Titans 2-6 ATS at home coming off back-to-back road games, we’re all over Denver here. 

Rating: 3 Units

The Lions are likely still feeling giddy after beating the Packers, 15-9, last week. They’d better not live too long in the moment as they ride a 5-game ITS (In The Stats) losing streak entering this game. They are also 2-13 ATS as a dog in first of consecutive away games, 0-4 ATS with double division revenge, not to mention 2-7 SUATS in division games after holding a division foe under 10 points in their previous game. With the bad news Bears 6-0 ATS in first meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS at home off a home game, look for the Lions to fall asleep here today. 

Upset of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Coming off their Bye week, the Browns look to be as healthy as they’ve been all season with star DB Denzel Ward and OT Wyatt Teller due back after resting lingering injuries. They are also as hungry as they’ve been this season as they now trail AFC North Division-leading Baltimore by 2.5 games and need to up their game in anticipation of the return of QB Deshaun Watson in three weeks. The Browns secondary better sharpen up, though, going against the top 1-2 WR duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Hill is on pace for a record 2,085 yards and could become the first ever receiver to surpass 2,000. Nonetheless, Miami arrives 3-8 ATS following consecutive NFC contests, while Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in this series, 4-0 ATS in first of back-to-back roadies, and 5-1 ATS following a division home game. Consider that Cleveland HC is 11-6 ATS as a dog with his current team, including 5-0 ATS against opponents he defeated in a most recent meeting.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Pete Carroll’s crew enters on a 4-0 SUATS win skein, winning three of the games outright as underdogs. And speaking of dogs, Seattle QB Geno Smith is 12-3 ATS in his last fifteen games when taking points in this league, including 7-0 ATS versus .444 or greater foes. On the other side of the fi eld, it should be noted that Brady is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral fields, but only 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS versus NFC West foes with the Bucs. In wrapping things up, it should also be noted that NFL teams with the better record are 19-8-1 SU and 16-12 ATS in Euro games. To clinch is, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 7-2 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when riding a three-game-plus win skein, including 7-0 ATS when taking either 2 or 3 points.

Rating: 2 Units

We’ve seen Baltimore blow double-digit leads in each of their three losses this season. The plus side for the Ravens is that those defeats came at home and this game is on the road. New Orleans is middle of the road defensively but they don’t get turnovers as they are a -9 in the takeaway/giveaway department this season. Baltimore, meanwhile, is a +6 in that category and isn’t afraid to hammer with the run game on offense, as Tampa Bay learned last week. The Ravens are the better team right now and that, coupled with the fact that the game is on the road, gives them the edge in this contest. Add in New Orleans’ 2-8 ATS record against opponents coming off a Thursday win, and it will be no surprise to us to find them fall to 0-5 ATS in its last five games under the Monday Night lights. 

Rating: 2 Units

Sean McVay has done his best work on the NFL road where he is 10-5 ATS as a dog, including 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when taking more than 2 points. In addition, he stands 10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS in skirmishes against the NFC South, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog. And lest we forget, defending Super Bowl champions who find themselves taking points with a losing record check in at 18-7-2 ATS since 1980. Toss in the Rams’ 8-1 ATS record in this series, and their 4-0 ATS mark versus foes coming off a Thursday home game.

Rating; 2 units

Smith actually enters this fray sporting a 107.2 QB Rating (3rd best in the league), while Murray’s woes continue with an 85.3 QB Rating (20th overall). Because of it, the Seahawks are taking minimal points in this game as opposed to the touchdown they were scheduled to receive prior to the start of the season. One of the reasons is the Seahawks are 3-0 SUATS the last three games. In those contests they allowed an average 256 YPG, a quantum leap over the 410 YPG they surrendered over the course of their fi rst fi ve games of the season. We realize Pete Carroll’s troops will be on their way to London after this contest but knowing that Arizona is 1-7 ATS at home with division revenge, 1-7 ATS as home favorites of 5 or fewer points, and 2-7 ATS in the first of three straight division contests, we can only look one way in this fray. Take the points.

Rating; 3 Units

Vikes are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last fi ve games in this series, or that Thor is a powerful 8-3 ATS against NFC East foes coming off consecutive wins. Nope. It’s more like Viking QB Kirk Cousins brings a lofty 8-2 SUATS away career mark into this game with a winning record and facing .500 or fewer foes, including 5-0 SUATS as a favorite of 2 or more points. The Commanders’ are 6-18 SU and 8-16 ATS in games before Philadelphia fights.  To cap it off .500 teams in Game Nine of the season, coming off consecutive wins, are 3-22 SU and 4-20-1 ATS when not favored by more than 2 points.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Atlanta is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS after scoring 30-plus points in their previous game, including 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS at home. Yes, the Chargers have struggled with QB Justin Herbert’s rib injury but there is nothing like a week off during the season to help mend the healing. The Bolts are 5-0 ATS non-conference road games as well as 5-1 ATS when coming off a SU home favorite loss. In closing consider that the Atlanta Falcons are 2-20-1 ATS at home during the regular season when coming off a home win..

NFL Mismatch of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

NFL road teams coming off a shutout loss – read: the Raiders – are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS since 1993 when facing foes coming off consecutive losses. Coupled with the fact that NFL teams returning home without rest after playing in London are 0-3 SUATS when coming off a SU favorite loss makes the red-faced Black and Silver the right side in this contest today, even though the Raiders failed to cross midfield until the 2:00 minute warning in last week’s embarrassing 24-0 loss at New Orleans. In the process, they were blanked for the first time since 2014 when, ironically, rookie QB Derek Carr suffered a 52-0 whitewash loss to the Rams. Carr bounced back the next game with a 24-13 win over the 49ers when he completed 22-of-28 passes for 3 TDs, 0 INTs and a Passer Rating of 140.2 – his best effort of the season. Jacksonville is on a 0-5 SUATS losing slide, and just 1-9 ATS at home versus AFC West opposition. Finally,  the Raiders are 10-1 ATS away during the regular season versus AFC South foes.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bengals have won two straight and four of the last five, while allowing an average of 17.5 points per game in the four victories and allowing just 19 points in the one loss. Cleveland has struggled the last four weeks, losing each of the four and the Browns' defense has been its weak spot. During Cleveland’s current four-game losing streak, the Browns are allowing an average of 28.5 points per game. Joe Burrow is averaging 299.6 yards per game passing with 15 touchdowns. Cleveland is tough on the ground with Nick Chubb but quarterback Jacoby Brissett has just six touchdowns and has thrown five interceptions, which has made Cleveland too one-dimensional with its running game.

Rating: 3 Units

Rodgers is 5-3 SUATS in his NFL career when the Packers are coming off three straight losses, including 3-2 SU and 4-1 SUATS in games in which Green Bay is not favored. We also know Rodgers is 40-15 SU and 33-21-1 ATS in his career during October, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of more than 2 points. He is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in games with a losing record when facing .750 or greater opponents. Rodgers is also 22-34-1 SU and 32-23-2 ATS as a dog in his NFL career, with the 8.5-points he took at Seattle in the 2019 playoffs a benchmark high. On the flip side, his counterpart Josh Allen has faced the Packers once in his NFL career, a 22-0 loss at Lambeau Field in 2018. However, the Bills own the league’s No. 1-ranked offense and defense, making it as tough a one-two combo as there is the NFL these days. However, with Rodgers 7-0 SUATS versus rested foes coming off a SUATS win, and 10-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career with a win percentage of less than .666 when facing a foe with a win percentage of greater than .750, we’ll go with the pack.  To finish it off consider that playing on any NFL Sunday night non-division dog of more than 8 points versus a foe coming off a SUATS win is 18-2 ATS since 1980.

Rating; 3 Units

Not one of Tennessee’s 4 wins this season have been against a team with a winning record. The Titans are 0-6 ITS (In The Stats) this season – although in fairness it should also be noted the Texans are 1-5 ITS, coming off its first stats’ win of the season last week. Hot Houston rookie RB Dameon Pierce leads the league with more yards after contact than any player in the league. Meanwhile, the Texans are 6-0 ATS as division dogs after surrendering 35-plus points and 8-0 ATS after allowing 35 or more points when facing winning foes of .500 coming off consecutive wins. With the Titans a tepid 1-6 ATS after a division home game, look for the Texans to improve on their 4-1 ATS ledger as a division host today. 

Rating: 2 Units

No questioning the vast improvement of the Jets, who are just a half-game behind the Bills in the AFC East, while ranking 9th in total "D" (8 picks already, as well as 8th in scoring "O". However, beating the Patriots, along with a man named Belichick, is something that they haven' been able to do since 2015. Right: 12 straight losses, & with such a minuscule spread, the outright winner will also be the ATS champ. But loss of Jet RB Breece Hall, is a truly devastating blow. Patriots continue their dominance.  To cap it off, New England stands 9-1 ATS in Game Eights and is 7-2 ATS in this series. 

Rating: 2 Units

First year coaches playing at home coming off a Bye week have struggled getting their team’s full attention, going just 6-10 SU and 4-10-2 ATS in this role since 2017, including 0-4 ATS behind .600 or greater teams. Making matters worse, the Vikes are 3-8 ATS with rest coming off a SUATS win. When the Cardinals beat New Orleans at home last week, it snapped an 8-game home losing skid back to when they topped Houston on October 24, a year ago. They improved to 9-2 in their last eleven games with WR DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup. With Zona head coach Kliff Kingsbury in his best role as a road dog going 15-5-1 ATS, including 7-1 ATS versus foes coming off a win, the points become the play today. 

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 5 Units

Las Vegas has cashed in each of the games, winning two of them on the scoreboard. Like Arizona, they are still on the outside looking in at the current NFL playoff picture. Unfortunately, they’ve struggled against foes coming off a Thursday game going just 4-10-1 ATS. And they’ve also wriggled in this series with a 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS mark the last ten gatherings. The Saints have won the stats in 5 of their seven games this season, including each of their last three games. As a result, they bring the better offense and the better defense into this fray. They are also 11-4 SU at home when playing off a SU previous home loss. Finally, consider that  NFL playoff teams the previous year are 6-22 SU and 7-20-1 ATS away in Game Seven when coming off consecutive ATS wins if not favored by 3 or more points, including 2-15 ATS if the Over/Under total in this game is greater than 40 points.

TNF Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Brady is 10-0 SUATS in his NFL career with a losing record and coming off a loss. On the other side of the field, the Ravens are certainly not hitting on all cylinders either going 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests. And with it, Baltimore brings a 0-5-1 ATS mark in Thursday road games. ultimately, NFL teams coming off three consecutive losses as a favorite of 7 or more points in each game are 3-1-1 ATS since 1980. In addition, the Bucs are 5-0 SUATS the last five games as an underdog with Tom Brady behind center, while Brady is 6-0 ATS as a dog versus AFC North foes in his NFL career. Lastly, Bucs QB Tom Brady is 41-17-2 ATS as an underdog in his NFL career, including 11-1-1 ATS at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears' offense has been terrible this season as they have struggled with an inexperienced offensive line and a young receiver group. Chicago has the 31st-ranked scoring offense in the NFL thus far this season. They are the #2 ranked rushing offense but are dead last in passing offense. In the red zone, the Bears are equally inept, ranking 28th in the league in red zone offensive efficiency.  The Patriots' defense seems to be hitting its stride as they once again shut down an opponent. New England held the Browns #1 rushing attack to just 70 yards on the day. Overall, New England gave up 328 yards of total offense and had two interceptions and two fumble recoveries on the day. The Patriots had four sacks on the day and a whopping nine quarterback hits. They also had two tackles for loss in their second straight win.

Inter-conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After starting 3-0 SUATS this season behind the lefty, the Fish ride a 0-3 SUATS skid entering this contest. The Dolphins have plummeted from being ranked fi rst in points per drive with Tagovailoa, to 29th without him. Tua, though, brings a lofty 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS career mark into this battle, including 10-4 SUATS at home. Nonetheless, concussions take center stage in this contest with new rookie QB Kenny Pickett currently in concussion protocol. Steelers’ backup QB Mitchell Trubisky completed nine of 12 passes for 144 yards and a TD in relief of Pickett who left last week’s game woozy with a concussion. Another side bar issue today will be the return of former Miami head coach and current Pittsburgh defensive assistant Brian Flores, who’s has had run-ins with Fish owner Stephen Ross over reported ‘tanking’ issues. However, .500 or greater NFL teams, 0-3 SUATS in their last three games, are 14-1 SUATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a SU underdog win.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Kansas City is 8-18 ATS as a favorite when coming off one loss when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 3-14 ATS versus avenging foes. The bottom line, though,  the Niners’ No. 1 ranked defense is 101 YPG superior to that of the Chiefs. That being the case, Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is 14-6 ATS as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more, including 6-0 ATS versus .714 or fewer opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

It’s been another year of frustration for the Jags, whose shortened nickname seems apropos. At the helm is QB Trevor Lawrence who after setting an NFL record for most fumbles in a game (4) two weeks ago, comes off the best effort of his NFL career last week after he completed 20-of-22 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown while adding two more TDs on the ground. But it wasn’t enough as the Colts scored the game winning touchdown with 23 seconds remaining to win 34-27. In the process, though, he also set another NFL record when he became the first quarterback in league history to complete over 90% of his passes on 20-plus attempts, score three touchdowns, commit no turnovers, and yet still lose the game. So, our question is why is Jacksonville suiting up as the favorite in this contest against the G-Men? However, the Jaguars 0-18 SU and 2-16 ATS in their last eighteen games against NFC competition.

Rating: 3 Units

If the playoffs began this week, the 3-3 Bucs would surprisingly be the No 3 seed in the NFC, based on the fact they sit on top in the NFC South. The Panthers situation continues to worsen with each passing week. After WR Robbie Anderson was kicked off the sidelines following an altercation with coaches on Sunday against the Rams, he was traded to Arizona on Monday. What the Panthers really need is a quarterback. An ugly 1-8 ATS log in games before facing a division foe, coupled with the fact that not only is Tampa 6-1 ATS in this series, but also Brady’s 22-6-1 ATS away record after his team was upended as a favorite in its previous game, makes this a one-way look.

Rating; 3 Units

The huge comeback win by the Colts last week vaults them back into contention in the wide-open AFC South where suddenly, if the NFL playoffs were to start this week, Indy would be the 7th and final seed from the AFC. Their counterpart Titans, by virtue of leading the AFC South, would hold down the No. 3 seed. Teams 3-2 teams after a 0-2 start (Tennessee) are 17-11-1 ATS in Game Six, but 0-3 SUATS when coming off a Bye week. In addition, the Titans are winless, 0-5, ITS (In The Stats) this season. Yes, we’d call them a false favorite in this matchup, especially with the Colts playing with a triple revenge chip on their shoulder. With the Nashville Cats 3-12 ATS in the first of consecutive division games, and the Colts 7-1 ATS versus opponents coming off Bye week.

Rating: 2 Units

Saints have struggled mightily on Thursdays in non-division clashes going 0-6-2 ATS. Looking inside the stats, Arizona has out yarded each of its last five opponents. So, while New Orleans is 5-0 ATS away off back-to-back home games, and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road dog, and the Cards are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall home games, we’re banking on Hopkins’ shot-in-the-arm return to be the magic elixir the Redbirds so desperately need.

Rating; 2 Units

This one is a matchup of a team that can’t score against one that has had major issues keeping the opposition off the scoreboard this season. Denver is second-worst in the league in scoring and their inability to put the ball in the end zone proved too much to overcome against a Colts team that is dead last in scoring offense. That puts Wilson and company in a tough situation here as the Chargers are in the upper echelon of scoring offenses in the league. Denver’s defense has been solid and kept them in games this season though they face a stiff challenge here. Ekeler has been on fire the last couple of weeks and Herbert is getting healthier after suffering that rib injury back in week two against the Chiefs. Playing at home with the potential of having Allen back in the mix here makes the Chargers too dangerous for the Broncos to handle.

SNF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The stat that jumps out in this contest is that both teams rank No. 1 and 2 in Net Turnover Margin, with Philly +1.8 and Dallas +1.0. For what it’s worth, the Eagles are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS under Nick Sirianni in games in which they lose the TOs, while the Cowboys are 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS the same way under Mike McCarthy. Meanwhile, where Sunday night home teams coming off consecutive wins tend to struggle, there is no refuting the fact that teams who just upset the defending Super Bowl champions are close to no shows the following game. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in games after Rams, and the Eagles seeking triple revenge it's important knowing America’s Team is a meager 1-9 SUATS away versus .428 or greater foes seeking triple revenge.  Finally, playing against any NFL away team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in their last game by 7+ points and scored 28+ points if they’re facing a .400 > foe and the O/U total in this game is < 44 is a PERFECT 15-0 ATS since 1980.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

It starts with KC QB Patrick Mahomes’ 12-1 SU mark versus .777 or greater foes, as well as his 4-1 SUATS record at home versus the AFC East during the regular season. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen has struggled away in his NFL career against .700 or better foes, going just 2-5 SUATS. Digging deeper, the Bills are 1-12 ATS in the 2nd quarter of the season (Games 5-8) with a .500 or greater win percentage when coming off a SUATS win and facing an opponent coming off a home game. Head coach Andy Reid brings in a 28-9-1 ATS dog log into this prime time showdown when coming off consecutive wins, including 4-0-1 ATS at home. Consider also that the Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career.

Rating: 3 Units

Tomlin has been at his best taking points at home, going 12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS since 2018. And for what it’s worth, he is 10-3 SUATS overall when coming off a loss of 17 or more points – including 4-0 ATS as a dog. Tampa enters just 2-6 ATS as road chalk of 4 or more points, and 1-5 ATS the last six games in this series. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against NFC South. Finally, consider that NFL non-division road favorites off three straight home games are 1-16 ATS when facing foes coming off consecutive losses, the last by 13 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Jacksonville out gained Houston by 174 yards in last week’s 13-6 loss. The Jags are also 9-1-1 ATS the last eleven games in this series, as well as 4-1-1 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday contest. On the other side of the field, Indy is on a 0-4 SUATS losing slide when coming off a SU underdog win, while head coach Frank Reich is only 12-22-2 ATS against sub .500 opponents, including 3-10-1 ATS when coming off a win. Finally, Indy is a dismal 1-7 ATS in their last eight division home games.

Rating: 3 Units

The Over is 6-1 in Jets last 7 vs. a team with a winning record, 6-2 in Jets last 8 games following a straight up win, 6-2 in Jets last 8 road games and 13-6 in Jets last 19 games overall. While the Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Rating: 3 Units

Playing On any Monday night home team coming off back-to-back away games if they are facing a foe coming off a home game. That’s because these MNF hosts are 33-13 ATS in this role when coming off a SUATS win. Tie in the Raiders’ 1-7 ATS mark in games when seeking triple revenge, and their 1-4 ATS record in their last five division road games, and we certainly don’t want to go against Mahomes here, not when he sports a 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS record under the Monday Night lights. 

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Baltimore has been outgained in all four games this season.  Cincinnati’s strength this season has been its defense as they rank No. 8 in points allowed and No. 11 in overall yards allowed. They are also one of five teams that have been installed as a favorite in every game this year – yet dress up as a dog today. Finally, consider that  Cincinnati is 12-1 ATS against foes seeking double revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall. The 49ers have only covered the spread twice in their last nine meetings with Carolina, but the Panthers have gone 1-10 ATS in their previous 11 contests overall. San Francisco is scoring just 17.8 points per game (tied-27th), but the Niners’ defense could easily add to the scoreboard while shutting down Baker Mayfield and Christian McCaffrey.  Baker Mayfield had a bad day in the office against Arizona’s defense, going 22-of-36 for 197 yards, a TD, and a couple of interceptions. He also lost a fumble, so it’s no strange Baker was booed by the home fans. Christian McCaffrey posted eight totes for 27 yards while catching all of his nine targets for 81 yards and a TD, and DJ Moore added six receptions for 50 yards. 

Rating: 3 units

Wilson’s late 81-and-65-yard drives to defeat the Steelers last week and with it they bring a Top 10 ranked offense and defense in this game. That makes them a dog with the better offense and the better defense, and that tells us, we’d better take the points. The Dolphins are just 1-7 ATS in this series. To cap it off, playing against any .545 > NFL away team off a loss, that was preceded by three wins, who won 9 or fewer games last season if they are facing a division foe off a win is 16-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

Tomlin is 5-0 SUATS the last five games overall when riding a losing streak of three or more games. All of which ties into his terrific 34-9 SU and 28-12-3 ATS mark in games without a winning record from Game Five out in his career – including 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as a dog. Meanwhile, the Bills return home off a gift at Baltimore where head coach John Harbaugh fell asleep at the wheel while allowing Buffalo to escape with a win. It doesn’t help knowing Buffalo is just 3-7 ATS when coming off back-to-back travelers as well as 3-5 ATS when hosting AFC North guests. 

NFC South Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Brady is 12-4 ATS in his NFL career when his team is coming off consecutive losses, as well as 23-7 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit loss. To clinch it, Brady is 7-1 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit home loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games.

Rating: 2 units

A record 23 NFL games have been decided by a field goal or less this season and once again this has all the earmarks of the same. The 1-2-1 Colts are the most disappointing team in the league at this stage of the season (their win-total was 10 entering this season) and now stand 0-2-1 in AFC South contests this year. They have been outscored 65-23 in the fi rst half of games this season and are tied for 30th in turnover differential (-6). Sure, they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven underdog roles, but until the not-solucky horseshoes iron things out, look for the Broncos to extend their streak to 4-0 ATS in this series, as the wild horses improve on their 4-0 SUATS all-time mark at home on Thursdays against non-division foes tonight. 

Rating: 2 Units

The 49ers and their mad-genius Coach Kyle Shanahan have now had two weeks to shape the team's game plan back towards an offense featuring Garoppolo at QB. I expect the Niners to feature Samuel more this week against the Rams, primarily on screens. In the playoff game against the Rams last season, Samuel ran for 45 yards and caught six passes for 95 yards.

Rating: 3 Units

Brady has yet to get going because of a cluster injury problem to the Bucs’ offensive line and wide receiver corps. The Buccaneers are getting healthier in those areas. Mike Evans, Brady’s top target, comes off suspension. The Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS following a loss since Brady came on board in 2020.  In addition, the GOAT’s is a stellar 11-1-1 ATS all-time as a home dog

Rating: 3 Units

NFL home teams in Game Two of a three-game home stand, coming off a SU underdog win, are just 6-10-1 ATS versus non-division foes, including 0-3 SUATS when favored by fewer than three points. Toss in the Panthers’ 2-6 ATS record in the second of a three-game home stand and suddenly we’ve got the makings of a wobbly home favorite. To clinch the selections, Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury is 14-4-1 ATS as a road dog during the regular season with the Cardinals, including 7-0 SUATS the last seven games.

Rating: 2 Units

We realize the Bills have lost seven straight one-score games, longest current skein in the league. However, we’ll fade Baltimore’s 1-8 ATS mark in games after New England games and instead bank on Sean McDermott’s amazing 11-3 SU and 11-1-2 ATS record in follow-up games after playing to a field goal or less in his last game. 

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Given the fact the Jags, with their new head coach Doug Pederson, are 0-10 ATS in the second of consecutive away games, they are also 0-4 ATS against the NFC East. On the other side of the coin, Philly is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the AFC South. All good numbers in the Eagles’ favor, for sure. To cap all of this off, consider that playing one any NFL non-division home team in Game 4 if not favored by more than 7 points vs. a foe that scored more than 24 points in its last game is 17-3 ATS since 1980.

AFC Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Mariota owns nearly twice the career wins (31) than Browns signal caller Jacoby Brissett (16). However, the Hawaiian hurler is 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS in his NFL career in games when his team is coming off a SU underdog win – including 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS when not taking three or more points, not to mention 1-6-1 ATS against AFC North opponents. We cap it off with the fact that Atlanta is 0-8  SUATS versus the AFC North since 2014, while Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC South.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami showed their true grit knocking off everyone's AFC Darlings, the Bills. Tua toughed it out after slamming his head off the turf in the 1st half & Hill & Waddle are just so dangerous, with Tua Tagovailoa questionable, the Dolphins may have to turn to Teddy Bridgewater, who would bring a 23-9 ATS career mark as an underdog starter into the game. Additionally, the Dolphins 5-2 vs Cincinnati.

Rating: 2 units

Giants’ wins has been by a field goal or less. This is the first time since 2016 that the Giants have opened the season 2-0. They hosted division rival Washington in the third game in 2016, when as a 3.5-point favorite they lost, 29-27. Dallas enters with an 8-2 ATS mark the last ten games in this series, as well as 7-2 ATS in its last nine appearances under the Monday Night lights. With Big Blue just 1-8 ATS in games when seeking “double revenge”, look for the G-Men to fall to 2-8 SUATS in games when coming off consecutive wins here this evening.

Rating: 3 Units

QB Trey Lance is out for the season with a broken ankle, it will likely prove to be the best thing that could have happened for head coach Kyle Shanahan and his troops, given Jimmy G’s 37-18 SU and 33-21-1 ATS career record as a starter in the NFL, including 25-11 ATS in game when not favored by more than 5 points. With Frisco 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference roadies, we’ll go mining with the Niners tonight.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Green Bay’s is 14-2 ATS in games after battling the Bears, along with the Pack’s 9-5-1 SU and 10-5 ATS record in games when seeking “double revenge”, including 10-2 ATS versus .333 or great foes. On the other side of the coin, the Bucs are 2-8 ATS at home against foes seeking “double revenge”, as well as 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s of the season. Finally the Packers are 11-2 SUATS with a sub .750 win percentage under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 4-0 SUATS when seeking revenge.

Rating: 3 Units

The Ravens’ task this week, if they are up to it, is to pick themselves back up off the canvas. It should prove difficult given the fact that playoff teams last year (read: Patriots) who are dogs in Game Three are 12-7 ATS against opponents coming off a SU favorite loss. Toss in Bill Belichick’s 33-17 SU and 40-20-1 ATS career mark with New England against foes off a similar SU favorite loss – including 4-0 ATS as a home dog . Finally, Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh owns a 3-10-3 ATS career mark as a favorite when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 0-9-3 ATS when favored by 3 or more points.

AFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Matt Ryan now owns a 63.9 QB Rating with the Colts. The saving grace is his 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opposition, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog. On the opposite side of the field, the 2-0 Chiefs – the only undefeated team in the AFC West – enter with a Super Bowl grudge rematch on tap at Tampa Bay next week. Kansas City’s 1-5 ATS record in its last six AFC South skirmishes, and the Colts 6-1 ATS log when coming off a division road. Finally NFL home dogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS, including 10-0 ATS versus .466 or greater opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

NFL teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a double-digit win in Game One, are just 101-124-12 since 1990. When facing foes coming off a SU favorite loss they are 17-37-2 ATS – including 4-16 ATS as non-division chalk. Titans will not enter tonight’s contest lacking confidence, having upended the Bills as underdogs in each of the past two seasons. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last ten Monday night appearances. With Buffalo 0-4 ATS at home on Mondays and 0-3 ATS after playing on Thursdays. Finally consider that Tennessee HC, Vrabel, is 13-3 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more points with 12 outright wins.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating; 5 Units

Rodgers has made a living at home in his career with the Packers, going 69-38-4 ATS overall, including 27-12 ATS in division games, as well as 28-9-2 ATS when hosting foes coming off a SUATS win. Green Bay is 20-3 SU and 18-5 ATS in this series since 2011, including 8-0 SUATS when coming off a loss. To clinch it, Green Bay is 9-0 SUATS in regular season games when coming off a loss under head coach Matt LaFleur.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating; 3 Units

The Lions have been underdogs in each of their last 25 games. Washington is 19-10 ATS as a small dog of 3 or fewer points, including 10-1 ATS when coming off a win.  Detroit is a dreadful 6-19 ATS record as a home favorite when coming off a home game, including 0-5 SUATS when favored by fewer than 3 points. To cap it off, consider that NFL Hard Knocks teams from the preseason (Lions) are 22-36-1 ATS as a pick or favorite in Games 1-8 of the regular season, including 1-13 ATS when not favored by 3 or more points.

Rating: 2 units

Mike Tomlin is 7-11 ATS at home with the Steelers after winning versus a favored opponent the previous game, including 0-4 ATS the past three seasons, and 0-6 ATS when hosting non-division foes coming off a SUATS loss. The Pats are 3-1-1 ATS the last five games in this series, as well as 5-1 ATS vs AFC North opposition, look for Belichick to improve on his 5-0 ATS career away record in games after losing his season opener here today.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS after Patriots’ performances, as well as 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in Game Two of the season. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in games before New England, while also going 9-1 ATS in this series, and 6-0 ATS at home versus the AFC East. Additionally, NFL away teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a double-digit win in Game One, are just 17-35-2 ATS when facing a foe coming off a SUATS win. 

NFC Division Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Brady comes into this one with a 2-7 ATS career mark when taking to the road as a favorite when coming off a road win after beating the spread by double-digits in his last game including six straight losing tickets in his last six tries. Additionally Tampa is 1-6 ATS away in games with double revenge. Consider as well that New Orleans is 7-1 ATS the last eight games in this series, and 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as conference home dogs versus .800 or greater opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

Chargers held Derek Carr to a passer rating of 69.1 while sacking him five times and picking off three passes. So the Chiefs face a much sterner test in this early AFC West Division match up. Herbert brings a 2-0 SUATS career ledger at Arrowhead Stadium into this contest and that catches our attention. The visiting team 13-4 ATS the last seventeen games in this series.  I am not willing to back Kansas City in this spot. There is almost always going to be value on the road underdog when they are facing a team that the public loves.

Rating: 2 units

Playing against any  NFL Monday Night favorite in Game One of the season we would have won the money 67% percent of the time, as these Monday Night favorites are 32-27 SU and 19-39-1 ATS since 1980. When the Over/Under total in the game is 41 or greater points, they fall to 25-22 SU and 12-34-1 ATS, including 4-17-1 ATS in division contests. Finally, with the Broncos’ 5-10 SU and 3-10-2 ATS mark in their last 15 Monday Night contests, the points become the play in this one.

NFL Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Bucs are 1-6 ATS as non-division road chalk and 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games against NFC East foes. Looking to the opposite side of the field we find Dallas at 7-0 ATS in its last seven home dog roles, and 4-0 ATS versus the, NFC South. To cap it off consider that an NFL pick or road favorites who won 13-plus games last season are 19-32-1 ATS in season openers, including 0-4 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 50 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colts’ track record during Week 1 is absolutely dreadful – 0-7 ATS the past seven years. They’ve lost their last five openers by an average of 16.2 points. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS Week 1 mark under Frank Reich. If laying more than a touchdown opening week during Weeks 1 and 2 the past 10 years, the Colts would be 2-18 ATS. Judging by preseason, Indianapolis doesn’t look ready again this year. Matt Ryan is the team’s new quarterback. He’s past his prime and has yet to display chemistry with his new receivers, who are mediocre at best. In addition, the Texans are 6-2 in Game Ones at home, and 10-4 ATS as division home dogs of 9 or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

Washed-up Joe Flacco is not a quarterback worth betting on. Flacco hasn’t been good since helping the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory – and that was 10 seasons ago. The Jets scored the fifth-fewest points in the league last season. Their defense even worse, surrendering the most points in the NFL. Since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, the Ravens have scored the fourth-most points trailing only the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Saints. Baltimore went unbeaten during preseason again. The Ravens lost in overtime to the Raiders in last year’s opener, but were 5-0 SU and ATS during their previous Week 1 games with their average win margin being 30.2 points. 

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Steeler head coach, Mike Tomlin makes winning division games a priority, going 65-29-1 in his career – including 10-4-1 in first division contests of the season. Additionally, playing against NFL any division road team not favored by 8 or more points in Game One of the season if they lost in the Super Bowl game last season is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1988.

Thursday Blowout

Rating: 4 Units

Rams are 5-0 SUATS Game One of the season the last five years, while head coach Sean McVay is 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS during the first three games of the season in his NFL career, including 7-1 SUATS at home. With public support overflowing for the Bills, we consider that fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs during the first six games of the season since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

There is no refuting the fact that the Rams were expected to be the stronger team at the start of the season: the season win-total posted at the Westgate Super Book was 10.5 as opposed to Cincinnati’s 6.5. But the Bengals have closed the gap, as the 4-point spread in this game matches the difference of the two teams’ preseason win-total differential. So now Burrow can become the only quarterback to ever win a Heisman Trophy, a National Championship, and the Super Bowl with a win on Super Sunday. That’s a lot of pressure, but JB9 is indeed a Super Freak and appears to be up to the task in what should be another nail-biter to conclude a 2022 postseason of thrilling games. To cap it off, consider these facts: Burrow is 15-14-1 SU and 19-10 ATS with the Bengals, including 13-6-1 ATS as a dog (13-2-1 ATS +2.5 or more points) and 15-14-1 SU and 19-10 ATS with the Bengals, including 13-6-1 ATS as a dog (13-2-1 ATS +2.5 or more points).  Finally Cincinnati has tackled 9 playoff squads this campaign, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS, for a net -92 yards. Los Angeles has faced 10 playoff teams, going 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS, +83 net yards.

Rating: 2 Units

Not to overstate the obvious, but Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan has become Sean McVay’s Kryptonite, going 7-3 SUATS in head-to-head games, including six straight wins, along with a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in games in which the 49ers sport a .333 or greater win percentage – as well as 6-0 ATS between the 7s (as a favorite or a dog of fewer than 7 points). The Niners, playing in their 17th conference championship game – the most in NFL history – escaped single-digit snowy weather at Lambeau Field last week when the Packers’ Achilles heel (it’s special teams) struck again at the worst possible time, allowing a blocked punt for a game-tying touchdown with under five minutes remaining. QB Jimmy Garappolo finished 11-of-19 for 131 yards and a pick to improve to 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS as a dog in his NFL career – including 12-2 ATS as a dog of fewer than five points. The concern today is Garoppolo has yet to toss a TD pass this postseason (to go with 5 INTs), posting a sub 90 Passer rating in each game. However, he is 4-1 in the playoffs, and his shiny new toy, badass wide back Deebo Samuel, is a threat to score on any play. Given the fact that playoff teams coming off consecutive underdog playoff wins are 15-8-1 ATS, including 12-4 ATS since 1990, there is only one way to look in this ‘Superman special’.

Rating: 3 Units

Since 1980 there has been only one team to score 40-plus points in back-to-back playoff games – Buffalo in 1991. The Bills scored 19 points and lost their following playoff contest straight up as 7-point favorites against the Giants in the Super Bowl. Finally, note that NFL playoff teams coming off an overtime win in the postseason are just 6-10 SUATS since 1980. With Kansas City lugging along a 2-16-1 ATS mark in one-score games the past two seasons, a take is in order.

Rating: 5 Unit AFC Divisional Game of the Week

NFL teams who have managed to take down a Bill Belichick coached team by 20 or more points are just 6-12 SUATS in follow-up contests, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus greater than .666 foes. With the win the Bills are now 3-0 at home and 0-3 away in the playoffs under Sean McDermott. The Chiefs bumped Buffalo out of the playoffs in the AFC title game last year, although the Bills did circle back and rout the Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead in October. The Bills enter this contest with +32 net TDs this season – the best in the league. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes was money for Chiefs’ backers in last week’s 42-21 win over Pittsburgh, going 30-of-39 for 404 yards, five touchdowns and the interception. Meanwhile, M’homey is 7-2 in the postseason, with both losses coming at the hands of Tom Brady. Consider that teams coming off a Wild Card win of 25-plus points are 3-7 SUATS since 1990, including 0-5 SUATS versus sub .800 foes.  In addition, playing against  any NFL away team in the Divisional Round of the playoffs coming off a win of 25-plus points if they’re facing a .750 or fewer opponent is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Unit NFC Divisional Dominator

The Packers are 41-12 SU and 34-19 ATS under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 24-3 SU and 19-8 ATS at Lambeau Field. And speaking of losing, LaFluer also holds down a fortuitous spot where the Green Bay Packers have never lost consecutive games under head coach Matt LaFleur, going 9-0 SUATS when coming off a loss. Speaking of which, QB Aaron Rodgers does not take kindly to losing, going 45-19 SU and 42-21-1 ATS in games when the Packers are coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games against foes coming off a SU underdog win. Plus, he’s got a triple playoff revenge chip on his shoulder from a 0-3 postseason mark against the Niners. On the other side of the field, Dallas sabotaged a potential victory with 14 penalties, paving the way for San Francisco’s appearance today – yet none of them equaled a nonsensical quarterback draw without any timeouts that blew up in the Cowboys’ faces when the game clock expired before they could run another play. As a result, Dallas fell to 3-11 SUATS in its last fourteen postseason games. While the Niners were very good to us last week, we don’t see the Packers gift-wrapping 14 penalties for them this week. With NFL Division Round teams coming off a SU Wild Card underdog win just 6-30 SU and 13-23 ATS since 1998, including 1-14 SU the past nine seasons, we’re forced to go turncoat today, as we become Packer backers.

Rating: 3 Units Divisional Dominator

The Bengals hadn’t won a playoff game in 31 years, the longest drought in the league, until last week’s 26-19 victory over Las Vegas. They were, however, outgained by the Raiders, 385-308 while Vegas averaged 0.4 more yards per play. Note that since 1988 rested home teams in the Divisional Round have gone 100-34 SU and 71-59-4 ATS. Coupled with road teams coming off a Wild Card Round SUATS win going just 53-69-2 ATS Divisional Round contests, look for the Bengals to fall to 0-6 SUATS on the playoff road.

Rating: 2 Units

If the Rams have a legitimate MVP candidate this season it would be WR Cooper Kupp. During the first 16 games of the season, he connected with QB Matthew Stafford 138 times, the third most in NFL history. And he led the league in receiving yards and touchdown receptions. However, in order for the Rams to move forward they need Stafford dialed in like he was when he opened the season 8-1. Since the start of Week 9, he has thrown the NFL’s second-most interceptions (11), including 4 pick-sixes. And he has never won a playoff game. Flipping the script, after a 7-0 start that had many thinking they would be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Cardinals finished 4-6, and in a wildcard spot. The good news is after losing defensive lineman J.J. Watt to a shoulder injury in Week 7, it appears he’s ready to return for the playoffs. His return would be most welcomed, especially given the fact that the Cardinals were 8-2 SUATS away this season. Noting the Rams’ 2-5 SUATS and 1-6 ITS (In The Stats) record this season against fellow playoff squads, as opposed to Arizona’s 5-2 SUATS and ITS marks against the same, it appears the wrong team just may be favored here today.  Finally consider that playing on any .600 or greater team in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs if they are seeking same-season revenge is 17-5 ATS since 1990. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Chiefs couldn’t have handpicked a better opening round opponent this Wild Card weekend. They’ve allowed an NFL worst 7.6 yards per play in the past two weeks. Over the same span, the Steelers have averaged 4.0 yards per play on offense. Kansas City has surrendered 12.9 PPG over the last eight games of the season. Pittsburgh has averaged 297.6 YPG over the same span. After starting the season 3-4, the Chiefs enter this contest on a 9-1 overall win skein, meaning they are surging at the right time. In fact, Kansas City is 19-3 SU and 13-8-1 ATS from Game Twelve out the past three seasons. Toss in Patrick Mahomes’ 27-1 SU and 16-11-1 ATS mark in his last 28 games during November, December, and January, and you know who will be advancing on to the divisional Round of the playoffs next week. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is just 4-4 in its last eight games, losing the stats in seven of those contests. And in his last four games, QB Ben Roethlisberger has posted QB Ratings of 80.1, 56.2, 73.4 and 80.1. Yikes. That would find most starters on the bench in this league. Furthermore, Big Ben is 1-6 SU with only two ATS covers in his seven career starts as a dog of 7 or more points, while the Steel City’s 2.2 PPG in the 1Q is the lowest in the league this season – KC’s 7.6 is the best.

Rating: 2 Units

Ever since the league first expanded the playoff field to 12 teams, and began seeding them in 1990, at least four new clubs have reached the postseason every successive year. The 2021-22 lineup features seven (50%) new teams – and two of them lock horns here, while also including the likes of the Cardinals, Bengals, Raiders, Patriots, and Eagles. After a 2-5 start, the Niners won eight of their final 10 games to qualify for the postseason, beating three playoff teams in the process. That’s a pretty strong body of work. Since the 49ers began using WR/RB Deebo Samuel extensively in the backfield in Week Ten, Samuel has been one of the NFL’s most unstoppable offensive weapons. He tied for the league high with 11 touchdowns over that span, and ranked No. 4 in yards from scrimmage (1,006). On the other side of the ball, since Dallas QB Dak Prescott returned to the lineup in Week 9 the offense has sputtered. Prescott ranked No. 11 in Total QBR in Weeks 1 to 6, but only No. 17 in Weeks 9 to 17. Worse, the Cowboys have beaten up on Washington and Eagles backups lately. Complicating matters, Jerry’s Boys are the worst team in the loop in Penalties Per Game (7.5) this season. Yes, Dallas was 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in conference play this season, but the Pokes are just 3-10 SUATS in the playoffs since 1997, including 1-6 ATS as a favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

Defending Super Bowl champions have fared well at home the following postseason when coming off a win, going 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS since 1990. Enter the Eagles, owners of the worst record of all teams still playing these days (read: fellow playoff foes) in the NFL. We are fully aware that you can only play the teams on your schedule, but after the Eagles followed their 2-5 start with a 7-3 run to clinch a playoff spot, it should be noted that four of those wins came against teams with a backup QB – and it’s only fair to note they didn’t beat a single team with a winning record. In fact, Philadelphia was laid to rest in each of its six games against fellow playoff squads this season. To close it out, consider that NFL playoff teams who won 4 or fewer games last season are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS since 1981 when coming off a loss of more than 7 points.

Rating: 5 Unit Wild Card Game of the Week

Rest assured, the Bills have been chewing nails since losing to Kansas City in the AFC title game last season. Not only have they played their way back to the postseason this year, they’ll take the field today knowing that playoff home teams who fell in their conference title game the previous season are 44-8 SU and 34-16-2 ATS overall, including 26-3 SU and 21-6-2 ATS when coming off a win of 6-plus points. Yes, we realize that six of their victories this season have come against teams that were using a backup quarterback, but after its 7-0 SUATS winning skein, New England enters just 1-3 SUATS in its last four contests while nearly mirroring its dismal 1-4 start to begin the season. The Pats where out-yarded -406 net yards against five fellow bowl teams this season, while the Bills outs tatted six playoff teams to the tune of +325 net yards. In fact, consider that NFL playoff home favorites who were in the playoffs the previous season are 15-3 SU and 14-5 ATS since 1996 when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a loss of more than 8 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Joe Burrow enters this scrape with a hot hand, having tossed for 971 yards in his last two starts – just three yards short of an NFL record over a two-game period. Along with rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase, they have become one of the league’s mostfeared duos. With RB Joe Mixon tallying 16 TDs in 16 games this season, this is an offense no one wants to face this postseason. Meanwhile, the Raiders ride a 4-game win streak. With it, this will mark the first playoff game for both signal-callers, Derek Carr and Burrow. Las Vegas coach Rich Bisaccia became the first interim coach since 1960 to take over a team during mid-season and lead his troops to the playoffs. With the Raiders looking to avenge a 32-13 home loss to the Bengals back in November – a game much closer than the final score indicates when the contest got out of hand late (Burrow threw for 148 yards) – and the Bengals riding an 8-game losing skein in the playoffs since their last win during the 1990 season, look for Cincy to succumb to its postseason inexperience and an 0-5 SUATS record in the playoffs when entering off a loss. Take the points.

Rating: 3 Units

The visiting Chargers have an offense that’s certainly humming these days, as they have scored 28 or more points in EACH of their last five games. All GAME 14 > road teams who scored 90 > COMBINED points in their last 3 games (CHARGERS), when the OU line is > 46 points is 16-1-1 O/U last 5 years. On defense, the Chargers have allowed 13, 41, and 34 points in their last three.  All road teams who allowed 13 , and 34 > pts in their L3 games (CHARGERS), when the OU line is 34 > points is 12-2 O/U since 2010. With both of these teams OVER .500 on the year, consider that week 12 or greater DIVISION games have gone 10-0-1 O/U last 4 years when (a) the home team is a DOG, and (b) both teams are > .500 on the year (RAIDERS/CHARGERS).

Rating: 4 UnitSNF Game of the Week

The Chargers’ Achilles heel has been its scoring defense in late stages of the game, as the 10.3 PPG they surrender in the 4Q of games is the worst in the league. However, Vegas is the worst team in the league in Penalty Yards Per Game which means nothing surprises us in this prime time playoff eliminator. In a game of back-and-forth possibilities, we settle on this beauty  that winning division home dogs of 3 or fewer points seeking revenge in their final game of the season are 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS since 1980. In addition, playing on any division home dog with a winning record coming off a SU non-division NFL road win as a dog of 4 or more points if they are facing an opponent that has won 21 or fewer of its last 32 overall games is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980.  That should put the Raiders in the playoffs.

Rating: 2 Units

Here’s something from the ‘Did You Know?’ department: Over the last three months of NFL play, who has been the league’s best OVER team? Your obvious guesses would probably be teams like the Cowboys, Buccaneers, Chiefs or Bills (the top 4 scoring teams in the NFL this year). But it’s actually the NEW YORK JETS. After starting the season with 3 straight UNDERS, the Jets have actually gone a very surprising 10-3 O/U since the start of October... with a very gaudy average of 56.5 combined PPG! So that’s where we are going this week, as we play the OVER in the AFC EAST Division game between the JETS and BILLS.