Rating: 2 Units

The Chargers beat the Raiders, 30-27, as 3-point road dogs in December of last year, a costly loss that denied Vegas a winning campaign. Carr and head coach Jon Gruden look to get even knowing that the Raiders are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Monday Night games, while the Chargers own a 1-3-1 ATS mark in their last five Monday Nighters. The Chargers have blown a fuse when favored at home over AFC West foes, going 3-8 ATS of late, and L.A. is an even worse 2-12 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. Speaking of home, there may be more Raiders fans than Chargers’ faithful at SoFi Stadium tonight. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-14 UNDER in their last 17 division road games.
The Los Angeles Chargers are 1-7 UNDER when coming off a road dog win, and 1-6 UNDER in their last seven division home games. Look for the Bolts to stay UNDER the total in their 4th consecutive home game tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

In their last 9 non-division games over the last 12 months, the Patriots have gone a perfect 0-9 O/U (avg margin -8.0 ppg). With the visiting Bucs laying sizable points on the road (-6.5 to -7), this game is active in two of  the same situations as our Chiefs / Eagles UNDER. (1) 3-15 O/U L5Y: All GAME 11 < non-division road favs of -6 > pts (Bucs), with an OU line of 49 > pts. (2) 0-7-1 O/U L4 years: All NFL road favorites of > 3 pts after scoring AND allowing 24 > pts in each of last 3 games (Bucs). Tampa lost last week’s game to the Rams by 10 points. 16-58-1 O/U s’14: ALL teams off a road FAV loss of 10 > pts (Bucs). The results improve to 3-18 O/U (85% Unders) when the OU line is > 46 points

Rating: 5 Units

Denver stands 22-10 SUATS at home versus opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 15-5 SUATS in non-division contests. Then there’s the red-hot Bridgewater, who is 21-6 ATS when his team is coming off a win, including 15-2 ATS versus non-division foes. Consider that 3-0 teams in the NFL are 15-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting a non-division opponent.

Rating: 4 Units

The Steelers come into this one 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in non-conference road games. The fact that HC Tomlin is at his best when facing quality opponents who own a .666 or greater record, going 37-13-2 ATS when the foe is coming off back-to-back wins, including 20-6-2 ATS as a dog. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog, including 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS away against foes coming off consecutive wins.

Rating: 2 Units

Is a letdown in order for the Rams after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs last week? According to the well-oiled machine, the answer is yes – given the fact that teams who upset the defending champs are just 26-35 SU and 24-36-1 ATS when facing a division rival the following game, including 9-19 SU and 8-20 ATS since 1980 when the divisional foe arrives off a SUATS win in its previous game.  Stafford is only 3-10-1 ATS in division games when coming off back-to-back wins. Since the Cards are currently on a 9-3-1 ATS roll as single-digit division road dogs, a take is in order today.

Rating: 3 Units

The host Cowboys will be on short rest off last week’s Monday Nigther. Consider that game 4 or greater teams off a Monday game (Dal) have gone 5-19-1 O/U L5 years when the OU line is a high 49 or more points. Dallas is in the midst of a 3-game homestand. 0-6-1 O/U L5Y: All non-division teams in the 2nd of 3 straight home games (Dal), in-between same-division games (Dal). Don’t be afraid that Dallas just scored 41 points on Monday Night. NFL non-div home favorites who scored 40+ at home in their last game (Dal) have gone 5-17-1 O/U since 2011... and a perfect 0-6-1 O/U in last four years.

Rating: 3 Units

Just like out other play, the host in this game will be playing on reduced rest (after a Monday game). 0-6 O/U since 2015: All NFL underdogs of > 3 points off a Monday division road game (Eagles), when the OU line is > 41 points. At last look, the OU line for this non-conference game was one of the highest of the week (54-55 pts). Last season, NFL non-division games with a very high OU line of > 53 points in week 4 to week 8 went 90% UNDER (1-9 O/U).

Rating: 3 Units

New Orleans is just 1-6 ATS in home openers the last six seasons. Meanwhile, QB Jameis Winston’s production last week almost mirrored his Week One performance – without all the touchdowns. Winston wasn’t asked to do much as he threw 30 fewer times than his counterpart, Mac Jones did. While being put under wraps, Winston didn’t make any mistakes, going 13-of-21 for 128 yards and two touchdowns, but it’s difficult being productive when you’re swathed in Saran Wrap. Consider this shocker that the Giants are the NFL’s best road dog the last four years, going 17-3 ATS since 2018.

Rating: 5 Units

Playing against any NFL team with a winning record coming off a Monday Night divisional win and cover if they are facing a .750 or greater opponents coming off a SUATS win of more than 3 points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rhule 36-13 ATS away and 40-19 ATS as a dog in his combined college and NFL head coaching careers, and Dallas a dismal 0-8 SUATS at home in games after coming off a Monday night game

Rating: 3 Units

The history book shows us that Dallas is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last ten division home games, while Philly was 0-3 SUATS away in division battles last season. Consider that NFL Monday Night home teams coming off consecutive road games, the last a SUATS win, facing opponents coming off a home game, are 32-11-1 ATS.

Rating: 5 Units

Game Three NFL teams are just 24-48-2 ATS in home openers when hosting non-division foes. Given the Niners’ 3-9 ATS record in Sunday Night games when coming off consecutive wins, including 1-8 ATS the last nine games, we gladly hand it off to the fact that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-3-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or fewer points in his career against opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 9-1-1 ATS the last eleven games

Rating: 5 Units

The revitalized Rams found their magic elixir in QB Matthew Stafford, whose 127.0 QB rating is nearly 40 points above his career average. The horned heads are 7-1 ATS in this series as well as 5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. On the other side of the field Tampa, who has yet to win the stats this season, is 1-7 ATS in Game Three of the season, as well as 1-4 ATS
in its last five games against NFC West opposition. To cap it off, consider that playing against the defending Super Bowl champion as a non-division road pick or favorite coming off a win in which they scored 48 or fewer points if they own a win percentage of more than .900 and are facing an opponent coming off a win of 14 or fewer points is 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

For the visiting Saints, it’s been a weird two weeks to start the year. On offense, they scored 35 points against Green Bay in Week One, but only 7 points last week vs Carolina. The over is a perfect 15-0 O/U since 2007 for all NFL underdogs who scored 7 < pts and 35 > pts in their last two games (SAINTS). Also consider that NFL teams off a SU division loss in which they rushed for 55 < yards (SAINTS) have gone 16-2 O/U in their next game over the last two seasons. To close it out the Patriots are  17-5 O/U in non-divisional games with OU line 43 < pts.

Rating: 3 Units

The Giants had a rare ‘OVER’ in last Thursday’s game against Washington. But we can’t ignore the fact that New York was the #1 under team in all of football last year (3-12-1 O/U / 0-7 O/U L7 games)... and also had the worst home offense in the NFL (only 16.4 points per game). Consider also that NFL road teams who allowed 45+ points in their previous game (Falcons) have gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U when the OU line is 52 < pts.

Rating: 2 Units

Jacksonville comes into this one still seeking it’s first win which slides right into our under play as game 3 or greater winless home underdogs of +5 > points have gone 5-21 O/U since 2016. The Jaguars could only muster up 13 points in last week’s loss to Denver. Consider that the under is 3-15 O/U last 2 years with all NFL underdogs off a SUATS home dog loss in which they scored less than 14 points (Jaguars), when the OU line is 42 or more points.

Rating: 4 Unit

Payton brings a 48-28-1 ATS career mark into this contest when coming off a loss, including 24-10 ATS when his team is on the road. On the other side of the coin, the Pats defense is carrying the offense this season while rookie QB Mac Jones learns on the job. Jones was 22-of-30 for 186 yards in last week’s rout of the Jets. With the Pats coming off a division win last week and having
a monster look-ahead to Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs, look for the Saints to be the hungrier team today. Also consider that the Saints head coach Sean Payton is 14-2-1 ATS in his career when coming off a loss and seeking revenge against an opponent coming off a win, including 7-0-1 ATS as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

What a comeback for the Ravens over the Chiefs! Outscored them 12-0 in the 4th quarter. They dealt Mahomes the first loss of his career in September. Lamar Jackson is 14-5-1 ATS on the road in his career & has become the fastest QB since 1970 with 3,000+ rushing yards (48 games). Thus, he now has surpassed Michael Vick (8) for the most games with 100+ pass yards and 100+ rush yards since 1960. In addition, the Lions have coughed up 30 or more points in each of their last eight contests, going 1-7 ATS in the process.

Rating: 2 Units

After booing injured QB Andy Dalton at home last week, it’s a good thing the Bears are playing in Cleveland this week. The fans sounded Eagles-esque. With Dalton on the mend with a bruised knee, it appears that Justin Fields is in line to make his first NFL start. Chicago’s 3-9-1 ATS record as road dogs of 6 or more points is likely to come into play, as is Cleveland’s 4-0 ATS mark at home when coming off a home game.

Rating: 2 Units

Play on an NFL home dog of 7 or more points who own a .500 or greater record, if they are facing an undefeated foe. These disrespected puppies that refuse to throw in the towel are 30-9-1 ATS since 1980 in this role. Couple Carolina’s 0-6 ATS log on Thursdays with Houston’s 8-2 SUATS all-time mark at home against visitors from the NFC South, and you have the ATS winner.

Rating: 4 Units

Baltimore QB, Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career, including 15-6 at home. With it, he’s been a home dog only once back in 2019 when he took 3 points from New England and beat the snot out of Tom Brady and the Patriots, 37-20. And then there is Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh, who brings a lofty 19-4 SU and 15-8 ATS career record at home during the month of September. To top it off, consider, that  defending NFL Super Bowl loser as an away pick or favorite vs. a non-division opponent that won 9 or more games last season is 1-12-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 5 Units

Prescott is 5-2 SUATS as an underdog when coming off a loss in his NFL career, including 4-0 SUATS the last four games. In addition, the Cowboys are 10-3 ATS as non-conference road dogs. The Chargers completed an uncanny 14 of 19 third downs in last week’s win over Washington. We don’t see that happening two weeks in a row. Not with the Bolts sporting a 6-10 SU and 3-12-1 ATS record when favored in games before taking on division rival Kansas City. In addition, NFL teams coming off a SU loss and ATS win on Thursday are 15-7 ATS away since 1986, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in games before facing the Rams and 2-8 ATS after taking on the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Atlanta invades off a deeply disappointing 32-6 home loss to the Eagles in new head coach Arthur Smith’s debut. NFL head coaches, coming off a season-opening loss of 20 or more points are 12-7 ATS the following game, including 9-3 ATS away. With the Dirty Birds sporting an 11-1 ATS record in Game Twos, we’ll join the Super Bowl Champ fade-train today.

Rating: 3 Units

Pittsburgh has gone 30-11-1 O/U as home favorites of < 9 pts since 2013, including an amazing 15-1 O/U in Week 11 or less in non-divisional games. In addition, the Steelers have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U when hosting these ‘West to East’ games s’12 (61.9 combined points per game!). Meanwhile, the Raiders have gone 10-1 O/U as ‘West to East’ road dogs the last 6 years when the OU line is < 50 points.

Rating: 3 Units

In the last two seasons, NFL non-division road teams have gone 90% under the Total (1-9 O/U) before a Thursday home game the following week (Houston). NFL big home favs of -12 > pts (Browns) have gone 25-55 O/U last 6 years... including 1-15 O/U in GAME 11 or less when the OU line is > 45 points. In addition game 2 big home favs of > 8 pts have gone 18-49 O/U since 1986.

Rating: 2 Units

DENVER has gone 14-33-1 O/U (70% Unders) as favorites of < 10 pts last 8 years... including 5-18 O/U when favored by > 3 and < 10 pts. And that’ll play right into JACKSONVILLE’s record of 0-6 O/U at home last 3 years (37.5 points per game) when playing off a division loss.

Rating: 3 Units

Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford’s, has a 10-15-1 ATS record as a road favorite in the NFL, including 2-9 ATS versus foes coming off a double-digit loss – with a 0-4 ATS mixer added in when Stafford is coming off a win in its last game. Colts head coach Frank Reich is 17-8-1 ATS in his NFL career as a head coach against foes coming off a win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS versus greater than .750 opponents

Rating: 2 Units

In the Dolphins’ takedown of once-mighty New England, QB Tagovailoa went 16-of-27 for 202 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. He nearly had a second pick, but a Patriot defender dropped the pass. Miami is also famous for post-Patriot letdowns, just 2-11 ATS since 2013, including 0-5 ATS when coming off a win over New England.

Rating: 2 Units

Giants QB,  Jones is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus Washington, and his OC Jason Garrett was 14-5 against Washington while with the Cowboys, including 3-1 SUATS as a dog. Consider also that New York is  7-1 ATS in its last eight division road games while Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as division home chalk

Rating: 4 Units

Playing three road games in a row is always tough, as since 2014, sixteen other teams have been in that same situation: playing their last two preseason games on the road and then opening the regular season on the road. Those sixteen teams are 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in Week One, including 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS if they failed to make the postseason the previous year. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville played their last two preseason games on the road, and then open the season on the road. That makes their Week One game their third road game in a row. MNF favorites dip to 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS when laying less than 6 points in a game in which the Over/Under total is set at 40 or more points

Rating: 5 Units

Chicago will be starting Andy Dalton, who brings a 6-19 SU and 9-16 ATS record into this game in his last twenty-five starts. With it, the Bears lug along a 1-7 ATS mark as dogs of 5 or more points and an 8-18 ATS dog log under the Sunday Night lights. On the home front, there’s a reason that head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead were comfortable trading multiple first round picks for 33-year-old quarterback, Matthew Stafford, with one career Pro Bowl. The former fi rst pick in the 2009 draft, he gives them a missing ingredient and a key factor that nearly every Super Bowl winning team possesses – a top-flight quarterback. His career Passer Rating actually ranks higher than the likes of Terry Bradshaw, Brett Favre, Joe Namath, Bart Starr and Roger Staubach, all Hall of Fame Super Bowl winning QBs. Given the hard-heads’ 4-0 SUATS record in season openers under McVay and the host team going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, consider also that NFL away teams in their first game of the season who made the playoff the previous season with 9 or fewer wins are 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS since 2001.

Rating: 2 Units

New York was easily the #1 under team in the league last year, going 3-12-1 O/U (next best UNDER team was LA Rams at 6-12 O/U). New York was also the only team in the league to average less than 40 combined points per game (17.5 on offense / 22.3 on defense). With Denver laying about a field goal in this one, we note that the Broncos are on a current 3-12 O/U run when favored on the road... including a perfect 0-4 O/U in the last three years. This is one of seven different games on the Week One schedule is which the road team is favored.

Rating: 3 Units

For what it’s worth, Winston is 28-42 SU and 30-36-4 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 12-21-3 ATS at home and 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite. However, he is 15-9-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. With that, the Saints are 43-23-3 ATS as dogs under Sean Payton, including 9-2-1 ATS at home as well as 25-9-3 when seeking revenge (New Orleans lost 37-30 as a 3.5-point favorite to Green Bay in September last year). Additionally,  the Saints are 6-0-1 ATS as home dogs of 6 or fewer points.

Rating: 3 Units

This is one of those familiar WEST to EAST game. In cases like this the total has gone 3-16 O/U the last 5 years: All West Time Zone road favs of > 3 pts (Niners) vs any east Time Zone opponent (Lions), when the OU line is > 42 points. There’s also a couple of ‘Game Specific’ situations that are worth noting. First, the total has gone 6-27-1 O/U since 1996 (82% Unders) when all game one non-division road favorites of 3 > points (San Francisco), when the OU line is > 41 points. Second, the total has gone 1-11 O/U last 12 years (92% Unders) when in game one both teams won 6 or less games last season (Niners + Lions), when the OU line is > 40 points. In addition, the last ten games of this Niners / Lions series have gone 2-8 O/U... with an average of only 41.7 combined ppg.

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee has been the league’s number one home ‘OVER’ team in the last four seasons. The Titans have gone 8-1 O/U in their last nine non-conference home games, with an average OU margin of +10.0 in those games. There’s also some solid numbers for this week’s visitors. The Cardinals have gone 17-5 O/U since 2001 as non-conference road dogs of 13 < pts, and that includes a perfect 10-0 O/U in Games 9 or less. They’ve also gone 9-3 O/U in all game ones versus any non-division opponent (including 5-0 O/U on the road).

Rating: 2 Units

A second consecutive 12-win season last year meant it was the 8th time in the last nine years that Pete Carroll’s crew has cracked double-digit wins. And much like last year’s effort, the collar and cuffs didn’t match as the Seahawks allowed 232 yards more than they gained on the season, a concerning number for a 12-win team. In spite of the gaffe, the Seahawks have averaged 10.33
wins per year in 16-game schedules over the past six seasons. Their worst season in that stretch was a 9-7 fi nish in 2017. The key stat today, though, is the Seahawks are 25-10 in Eastern Time Zones behind QB Russell Wilson, including 12-1 SU and 9-2-2 ATS the last 13 games. Coupled with Indy’s 1-12 ATS mark in season openers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Falcons have endured three straight non-winning seasons fi ve times since 1990. They bounced back with winning efforts every year, making to the postseason all five times! The bad news for Philly is the Eagles allowed a league-worst 65 sacks in 2020. The good news is Philadelphia will face the league’s softest strength of schedule versus foes who were a combined .430 last season. The Falcons’ luckless 1-8 mark in one-score games, including four in their first five games (all losses), sealed Atlanta’s fate last season. Nevertheless, they were not as bad as their 4-12 record indicated. With Matty Ice now 11-2 SUATS in home openers with the Falcons, and Philly a puzzling 1-12 ATS in domed that last five years, we’ll side with the home team.

Rating: 2 Units

Since 1980 teams who won a Super Bowl as an underdog are 84-102-5 ATS as a favorite the following season, including 50-80-4 ATS versus foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. Also, last year’s champs are just 12-24-1 ATS as favorites of more than 6 points during the first two games of the season. With the Bucs being weighed down by their overdone Super Bowl rings and just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS on Thursdays, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS at home, look for the Brady bunch to fall to 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven NFC East skirmishes tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

There is two weeks between the championship games and Super Bowl this year. Kansas City is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in the postseason since 2018. No team has compiled a better record the past three seasons than the Chiefs, who are 44-11 during this span. Maybe the Chiefs got back on track with their impressive title-game victory versus the Bills. Maybe. Until that performance, Kansas City was 1-8 ATS in its last nine games with the lone cover occurring by half a point against the Saints. Yes, the Chiefs were being overpriced by the oddsmaker and probably overvalued in the marketplace. Still, both their offense and defense had declined from their performance during the first half of the season when they covered six of their first eight games, while outscoring foes by an average of 31.6 points to 19 points. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, definitely are in peak form with Brady fully in sync with Bruce Arians and his new offense. Brady has never had these many outstanding receivers at his disposal. He can match Mahomes plus he has the huge advantage of being backed by the superior defense. Also consider that Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

Mahomes is firmly in his prime, the most dangerous quarterback in the league for the past three seasons with 114 TD passes in 45 regular season games. Sparked by Mahomes, the Chiefs have scored at least 21 straight points in their past five playoff games. The Chiefs have averaged 36.1 points in the last six playoff games in which Mahomes did not get injured. Tampa Bay is averaging 35.7 points in its last six games with Brady firmly comfortable in his new offense with his many dangerous weapons. He is facing a less than stellar Kansas City defense. So even though this is a high total, it’s a tough sell to try to make an Under work given these two offenses and the league’s emphasis on high-scoring entertainment. Consider that the over is 23-10 in Buccaneers last 33 games overall.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills have the pieces to defeat the Chiefs – a dynamic quarterback, a smart, aggressive defense and tremendous coaching from defensive guru Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who turned Allen from an inaccurate passer to an emerging superstar. The Bills finished No. 2 in scoring and yards. Kansas City finished 16th in total defense. The Chiefs may be without veteran cornerback Bashaud Breeland, who suffered a concussion against Cleveland. The Bills have broken several franchise droughts, including winning their first AFC division title and postseason game in 25 years The Chiefs have just been getting by. That’s not going to cut it against Buffalo.

Rating: 2 Units

The Packers have proven vulnerable to the run. The Chargers and 49ers in the championship game exploited that last season and the Buccaneers and Colts did it this season. Green Bay is vulnerable, too, when Rodgers is pressured and Adams is limited. The Buccaneers and Panthers in the second half of their game against the Packers demonstrated that. Only two of Green Bay’s 13 regular-season victories were against playoff teams, New Orleans and Tennessee. Thus far the Packers have been able to overcome their weak special teams. Both their punt team and punt return team have been abysmal. Green Bay was second-from-the-bottom in punt returns with a long return of 11 yards. The Packers ranked 30th with a 38.3-yard net punt average, while also giving up a league-high 17.1 yards per punt return. The Packers are deserving of being home chalk, but they have enough vulnerabilities that make them a shaky favorite against this particular opponent.

Rating: 2 Units

The Saints built a 24-7 lead in the season-opener and held off the Buccaneers, 34-23, as 4-point home favorites. New Orleans humbled Tampa Bay, 38-3, as 3-point road ‘dogs in Week 9. It’s difficult to win three games in the same season versus any opponent. The Week 1 matchup was Brady’s first game with his new team. He wasn’t sharp, nor in sync with his receivers, like he is now. Brown has come on to catch a TD pass in four straight games. Evans showed he’s fine hauling in six passes for 199 yards in the Buccaneers’ 31-23 wild-card playoff victory against Washington. Consider that Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Browns gave up the seventh-most big plays in the NFL. Discounting a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Chargers when they held 20 starters out, including Mahomes, the Chiefs have won 23 of their last 24 games. Kansas City was 4-0 this season in games versus playoff teams. They defeated the Ravens by 14 points and Bills by nine. No coach in history has been better off a bye than Andy Reid, who has an astounding 83 percent winning mark in that role. Improved health from rest, new offensive plays to catch the Browns off-guard and extra defensive preparation all could ensure a huge Chiefs performance. Consider that the Browns are 9-26-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

Congratulations to the Bills, fresh off their first playoff win since December of 1995, after having reached the Super Bowl 4 of the previous 6 years. For the Ravens, QB Jackson is off the schneid, gaining his first win, after trailing by double digits, outscoring the Titans, 20-3, to end that game. He is just the 2nd QB with 100+ rushing yards & a rushing TD in a playoff game (Kaepernick). He actually outrushed Derrick Henry, 136-40. Bills' QB Josh Allen has emerged as a true elite with a 39/10 TD/INT ratio (4,868 passing yards). Versus Colts last week: 324 passing yards (2 TDs with 0 INTs), 54 rushing yards, & a rushing TD. Just the 2nd Bills QB with 300+ passing yards, & 2+ TDs in a playoff game (Jim Kelly). Wide Receiver Diggs another 128 receiving yards & a TD. Six straight wins for Ravens (7-0 ATS run). Overland, & defensively, it's all Baltimore

Rating: 2 Units

The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC runs through Lambeau Field. That is music to the ears of Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off an MVP season of 48 TD passes, & only 5 interceptions (superb, even for him). He is coming in off a bye, & his 10th game this season with 3+ TD passes, and zero picks. The top-rated Ram defense was just incredible vs Seattle last week (11 first downs), holding the Seahawks to 2-of-14 on 3rd down (14%), and the 42-yard "pick-six" by Darius Williams set the tone in that one. The Ram "D" now has 1 or more sacks in 19 straight games. But will Aaron Donald be close to healthy (ribs) vs the highly efficient offense of the Packers? Running Back Cam Akers had the most scrimmage yards (176) in a Ram playoff game since Eric Dickerson in 1985. But note that his 2nd quarter TD was the first offensive TD for the Rams in their last 28 possessions. Packers: 30+ points 12 times this season. Consider that LA is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings while the favorite is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Rating: 3 Units

Do you really think the Browns, making their first playoff appearance since 2002, can halt a 17-game losing streak at Heinz Field and upset the Steelers? Understood that the Browns went vanilla and didn’t want to show too much when the teams met this past Sunday. Still, the Browns nearly blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead needing to stop a two-point conversion attempt and recover an onside kick with 1:22 left to hold on to a 24-22 win. The Steelers came this tantalizing close despite sitting out eight starters among them Ben Roethlisberger, probable Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt, center Maurkice Pouncey and Cam Heyward. The Steelers steamrolled the Browns at home when they had all their starters in, 38-7, back in October. In addition, consider that Cleveland coaches — including the head coach and playcaller Kevin Stefanski — unavailable. The Browns didn’t start practicing on the field until yesterday. They will be significantly short-handed, with left guard Joel Bitonio, safeties Ronnie Harrison and Jovante Moffatt and receiver KhaDarel Hodge definitely out. The status of four others on the reserve/COVID-19 list, including starting cornerback Denzel Ward and nickel back Kevin Johnson, is uncertain. Defensive end Olivier Vernon tore an ACL in Sunday’s win against the Steelers and is out. Consider that the Browns are 8-26-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

Bears backed their way into this one after laying that 4th quarter egg at home vs the Pack last week, while the Saints closed out an undefeated division record for their first time ever. Brees: 22-of-32, 201 passing yards, & had his 3rd game 3/0 game this year. Saints' Montgomery had 132 scrimmage yards, filling in for Kamara (Covid), who is expected to play here. Bears had their 3-game winning streak (36.7 points per game) snapped in 19-point loss to Green Bay, despite a 356-316 yard edge. However, Nagy made the right call going to Trubisky coming down the stretch. When New Orleans is on its game, it's the match of an other squad. Certainly the case at this moment

Rating: 2 Units

Rematch of LY's Divisionals, when the Titans went into Baltimore & shocked the #1 seeded Ravens, with 195 rushing yards from the unstoppable Henry. This year, the Ravens keep pounding the ball down their opponents' throats: 404 RYs vs Cincinnati. Only the 2nd team in the Super Bowl era to do that. Lamar Jackson is first QB with multiple 1,000 rushing yard seasons. Question is: can he win a playoff game? Titans almost let it slip away vs the Texans, but banked in a game winner at the buzzer. Tennessee is first team in NFL history with two 2,000 yard rushers: Chris Johnson & Derrick Henry (250 rushing yards vs Houston). Playoff Home Dogs have been 'money'. Again

Rating: 3 Units

How fitting that the NFC East winner has to face Tom Brady in the first round of the playoffs. Granted, they get him at home, but it's still THE GOAT. Brady finished off 2000 by throwing for 399 yards & 4 TDs with 1 INT vs the Falcons. His last 8 quarters? Try 1,067 passing yards, 10 TDs & 1 pick. First 11-win season since 2005 for the Bucs. He is simply the best, & he has he weapons. Evans: the 1st player in NFL history with 1,000+ receiving yards each of his first 7 seasons. 'Skins controversial win over the Eagles is of little concern here. A 6-2 SU windup, & competitive in last 9 contests

Rating: 3 Units

Frank Reich returns to Buffalo: 28 years ago (Jan 3, '93) at this very site, in this very round, is his greatest moment as a Bill. Simply known as "The Comeback", Bills trailed 35-3 with 28 minutes left, but somehow won 41-38 (OT). Colts pulled away from a gritty Jags team to get this berth, while Bills certainly didn't take their foot off the pedal last week: 56 points (most since '66), vs Miami which had everything to play for. Josh Allen: 4,544 passing yards & 45 total TDs (both team records). But Indy got 253 rushing yards from rookie Taylor in win over Jacksonville. Eight straight covers for Buffalo (+112½ points) & 9-1 SU, with a 142-54 point edge in Bills' last 3 games. Lay the TD

Rating: 2 Units

Even with that blowout loss in Lambeau on Sunday Night, the Titans can still clinch the AFC South with a win here. Cut Packer lead to 19-14, before the floodgates opened. Henry just missed out on another 100-yard game (23 carries: 98 yards). Let's hope that Watson's (24-of-34, 324 yards, 3 TDs with 0 INTs) throwing shoulder is OK after that hit he took at the end of the game. He is the first QB in team history with 30+ TD passes. Houston now has two 4-game losing streaks this year. RB David Johnson with 12 carries for 127 yards & a TD. Texans are 5-1 at home vs the Titans, but are hardly fired up.

Rating: 2 Units

There’s an outside chance the Seahawks still can get the top seed. So Seattle won’t lack incentive. San Francisco is 2-6 in its last eight games with all of the defeats during this time frame coming by eight or more points. Healthy again at running back, the Seahawks should be able to wear the weary 49ers down, while Russell Wilson picks his spots. Wilson had four TD throws when Seattle defeated San Francisco, 37-27, in Week 8. Special teams could factor, too, as the 49ers have allowed a league-high five TD’s on returns, including giving up four defensive scores. The 49ers have had multiple turnovers in eight of their past nine games

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants have failed to reach 20 points in any of their past five games. Jones is far from 100 percent. He lacks the skill position weapons Andy Dalton has with the Cowboys. The Giants don’t have a healthy running back the caliber of Ezekiel Elliott and their wideouts can’t compare to Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. Jones has been sacked 12 times in the past two games. Dallas has a pair of excellent pass rushers, DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory. New York is 2-5 at home this season. The Giants are at their worst when taking points at home failing to cover 11 of the last 13 times as a home ‘dog. Dallas has won the last seven meetings in the series, including 37-34 in Week 5 when Dak Prescott was lost for the season

Rating: 2 Units

Recommending the New York Jets hasn’t been as crazy as it sounds the past couple of months. In fact, the J-Men have not only won their last two games outright, but have been offering good spread value since midseason, covering 6 of their last 9, as they travel to Foxborough for the season-ended at Gillette Stadium vs. New England. The J-Men have been a better recommendation lately than the Patriots, who entered the Buffalo game last Monday having covered just 4 of their last 11 in 2020. And Bill Belichick has really had his problems as a favorite this season, dropping his last five in that role

Rating: 2 Units Prime Time Profit Play

The Bills have a good pass offense, the Patriots do not. The Bills’ good pass defense figures to make the Patriots’ pass offense weaker than it already was (Cam Newton, 5 TD passes in 13 games!). With Patriots' CB Stephon Gilmore out, (he was 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year), the Bills’ pass offense moves up a notch higher in the match-up. Although they’ve clinched the AFC East, the Bills can still get the #2 seed and a second home game in the playoffs. Plus, sweeping an avenging New England after being tortured by them all these years would be a good way to maintain momentum and build more confidence

Rating: 2 Units

Ryan Tannehill has 31 TD throws. Aaron Rodgers is having a brilliant campaign. But Green Bay’s defense hasn’t shown enough improvement allowing 24-plus points in three of the past five games. The Packers’ special teams have been awful, too. The Titans have produced at least 30 points in each of their last five games, averaging 37.4 points during this span. Tennessee has won and covered its last three road matchups, including knocking off the Ravens and Colts, 45-26. The Packers lost to the Colts on the road, 34-31 in overtime.

Rating: 2 Units

The Seahawks clinched a playoff berth for the 9th time 11 seasons under Carroll. Even though Russell Wilson has a career high 37 TDs, he also has a career high 13 picks. Not exactly Jameis Winston, but bye bye MVP Award. Both of these teams will clinch NFC West by winning their final 2 games. What in the world happened to the Rams last week? They had to be peeking ahead to this one. Their first half offense? Try 5 punts (1 blocked), an interception, & only 3 points vs an 0-13 team. What

Rating: 2 Units

Houston has Deshaun Watson. Cincinnati has Brandon Allen or Ryan Finley. Enough said. The Bengals might be able to run on the Texans’ league-worst rush defense – if Joe Mixon returns from a lengthy foot injury. Mixon hasn’t played since Week 6 so he can’t be counted upon. The Bengals lack the quarterbacks who can take advantage of the Texans’ porous secondary, which has become worse with the suspension of Bradley Roby. Aging J.J. Watt could have one more big game in him given the Bengals’ pass protection problems. Cincinnati’s chore is made more difficult by traveling on a short week having just hosted the Steelers this past Monday night

Rating: 2 Units

28th matchup between these two. Browns lead this series 15-12, which included that classic divisional matchup in 1986 at 'The Mistake by the Lake'. That 2OT barnburner was one of the greatest ever and surprisingly enough, is the only time these two have battled in the playoffs. Even when the Jets win, they lose. The Jags now hold that #1 draft spot for Lawrence. However, have to hand it to NY, as it was in command of that game from the coin flip. Jets "D" got a big 4th down stop & the "O": 2 late first downs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Raiders aren’t exactly stretch-runners as they are in the midst of another familiar December fade with four straight spread Ls. Maybe giving Marcus Mariota more snaps isn’t a bad idea after he looked very serviceable in relief of a hurting Derek Carr (strained groin) last Thursday vs. the Bolts, but even Alabama would have trouble scoring enough points to overcome a Vegas D that’s allowed 30 or more a staggering nine times in 2020 (only the Jets have been as bad). It can’t be good news for Jon Gruden that Miami just ran over Bill Belichick’s defense to the tune of 250 rush yards last week, either, while the careful Tua (only 2 picks in 8 starts) is making Brian Flores smile by avoiding the sorts of mistakes that often befall rookie QBs. The Dolphins are also the anti-Raiders, having won 8 and covered 9 out of their last 10 as they get closer to their first playoff berth since 2016

Rating: 2 Units

This really isn’t a road venue for the 49ers since Arizona’s State Farm Stadium has been their new home away from home. Nick Mullens hasn’t come through for the 49ers throwing at least one interception in eight of 10 appearances. San Francisco is holding out hope that Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will all be able to see action here to team with emerging star Brandon Aiyuk. The Cardinals beat the 49ers when San Francisco was healthy, 24-20, opening week. The 8-6 Cards have won four games by 15 or more points. San Francisco is 5-9 and out of playoff contention

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota doesn't have a better offense, or defense, than the Saints, who are playing home off a home loss, in a game with playoff seeding implications as well as some emotional fodder because it was the Minnesota uniforms who eliminated them from what they thought was going to be Super Bowl season last year. Injuries and missed practices suggest a gutted linebacker group for Minnesota in this game (as the defense prepares to play against Alvin Kamara and LaTavius Murray) and a definite absence for TE Kyle Rudolph

Rating: 2 Units

Even though it's been 4 weeks since Burrow's injury, you can't help but think about the connection between his and Carson Palmer's knee injuries. Of course, Palmer's came in this very same stadium against the Steelers in the '05 Wild Card. The Steelers went on to win that game & 2 more road games (Indy & Denver) on their way to winning Super Bowl XL. The Steelers are favored by two touchdowns despite a down-trending offense that has topped out at 19 points in their last three games. And that was when Baltimore was missing guys all over the place. Revenge for blowout loss earlier vs. division rival, home dog on Monday night

Rating: 2 Units

Would you believe that the defending champion Chiefs haven't covered since Nov 1st? And would you believe that the league's MVP, Patrick Mahomes, is in off a career worst 3 interceptions? And would you believe that the Saint "D" is the best in the NFL? If all of that isn't a recipe for atonement, we don't know what is. Sure, New Orleans as a true elite, but have to see an angry Mahomes & Co taking this one

Rating: 2 Units

Who would have ever thought the Jets could have a coach worse than Rich Kotite? Congratulations Adam Gase, who surpassed Kotite with the Jets having lost a franchise-record 13 consecutive games. New York has been outscored by 132 points in six away contests for an average road loss of 22 points. This is the Jets’ second West Coast game in a row. Sean McVay is licking his lips envisioning a passing attack against the Jets young and talent-deficient cornerbacks. The Jets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road matchups versus opponents with a winning home record. Sacks leader Aaron Donald faces a Jets squad ranking last in points and total yards.

Rating: 2 Units

These 2 have played 3 times in the playoffs in the last 15 years, with the Seahawks taking 3 out of 3. The last being 2012, when RGIII crumbled to the turf in FedEx Field, basically ending his career as Washington's savior. Sad to say the least. Russ is back! 21/27, 206 yards, 4 TDs with 1 INT. That gives him a team record 36 TD passes. The Seahawks tied the team record with its 5th game of 35+ points. Four straight Ws for Wash after that 2-7 start. Now a game up in the NFC East. Here's hoping Alex Smith is OK

Rating: 2 Units

First matchup of these two teams this season. They will meet again in Week 17. By that time, the Bucs postseason status may be solidified, so this one is huge for Tom and company. Bucs D has gone 4 straight games with 5+ sacks (6 vs Minn.). Best start for Tampa (8-5) since '16. Brady had his 6th game with 2+ TD passes & 0 picks & joined Jameis Winston as only Tampa Bay QBs with 30 TDs. On the other hand, the Falcons officially eliminated from the playoffs after Ryan's 3 picks in LA. Bucs

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills had no problem handling the Broncos last season holding them to 134 total yards in a 20-3 home victory. Things don’t look any better this time around for the Broncos. Their pass rush is missing Von Miller and their secondary has become severely short-handed minus their two top cornerbacks, suspended A.J. Bouye and injured Bryce Callahan. Josh Allen has made great strides from a year ago. Allen has accounted for 35 touchdowns spearheading a balanced attack that has produced 30 or more points in six games. Drew Lock has thrown 13 interceptions in his last nine starts. Denver has scored 21 or fewer points in six of those starts.

Rating: 2 Units

Nothing more the Chargers would love to do than knock the Raiders out of playoff contention like they did in Week 17 in 2011, which allowed Tebow and company to take the AFC West with an 8-8 record. Herbert (36/44, 243 yards, 2 TDs 1 INT) threw a beautiful pass to set up that game winning 43-yard field goal last week. That is the Chargers first win this season vs a team with more than 2 wins. The Raiders fired their defensive coordinator after Sunday night’s home loss to the 9-4 Colts. Therefore, rookie Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is likely to see things he didn’t see in the first meeting between these AFC West rivals back on November 8, when the Chargers had 75 offensive snaps to the Raiders 50 and 9.5 more minutes of possession time, but still managed to lose 31-26

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore has dominated this series going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings, including easily handling Cleveland, 38-6, opening week. Lamar Jackson threw for 275 yards and three touchdown passes in that game, which was the Browns’ worst opening week defeat since football resumed in Cleveland in 1999. The Ravens have won 10 of their last 12 road contests going 8-4 ATS. The Browns have been missing multiple starters in their secondary, including cornerback Denzel Ward and strong safety Ronnie Harrison

Rating: 2 Units

These 2 have only played 10 times, with the Falcons winning 8. Last matchup was a San Diego 33-30 OT win in 2016 Georgia Dome. Gone is Philip Rivers, but Matt Ryan is still slinging it for the Falcons (3,436 yards this year). Both of these squads coming of home losses. In fact, it was the worst loss in Chargers history. Falcons almost got that Hail Mary at the buzzer to beat the Saints, but wasn't meant to be. Matt sacked 11 times by Saints this year. Bolts haven't beaten a team with 2+ wins. Consider:  LA is 9-18-1 ATS at home under Lynn, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL during this time span

Rating: 2 Units

Kyle Shanahan holds special animosity toward Washington because both he and his father, Mike, were fired by Washington owner Daniel Snyder following the 2013 season. Kyle gave the game ball from last season’s 9-0 shutout of Washington to his father. San Francisco is healthier. It’s a short week for both teams having each played on Monday. Washington has it rougher with a long trip to Arizona’s home stadium, the temporary hosting spot for San Francisco’s home games. Not playing in the Bay Area isn’t such a bad thing for the 49ers considering they are 1-4 at Levi’s Stadium and 4-2 in true road games

Rating: 2 Units

The Chiefs have won their last 11 road, or neutral site, games. They are 12-6-1 ATS laying points. Patrick Mahomes is on another insane tear with an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during Kansas City’s last seven games, all victories. Miami lost 20-13 to Denver two weeks. The Chiefs are 2-0 versus the Broncos beating them by a combined 33 points. Miami cornerback Xavien Howard has an NFL-leading eight interceptions. But Howard can’t be responsible for both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Hill leads the NFL in touchdown receptions with 13 while Kelce is far ahead of any other tight end in receptions, yards and touchdowns. The Dolphins are committed to playing rookie Tua Tagovailoa. Perhaps Tagovailoa will emerge as a superstar to justify his lofty draft position. But right now Mahomes versus the inexperienced rookie is a huge mismatch

Rating: 2 Units

Jaguars normally seem to give the mighty Titans a decent game, losing just 33-30 in their first meeting. Whereas the Titans are an inconsistent play  (haven't posted more than a 2-game spread run all season), the seemingly hapless Jags are on a 4-1 spread run, losing 4 of their last 5 games by 2, 4, 2, & 3 pts, allowing a consistent 27, 24, 27, 27, & 27 pts. Sure, the Titans, with the powerful Henry, can move it, but on defense, they rank just 25th. We'll grab the TD in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Back-to back games in SoFi Stadium for the Pats, as last week, the Pats embarrassed the Chargers, 45-0 (12th shutout under Belichick). He has now won in 50 different stadiums, as the Pats have won 4-of-5. Of course, this is the 1st time that these 2 have played since Super Bowls LIII, when the Pats (-2½) won 13-3 for Brady & Belichick's 6th title. Rams beat the Cardinals last week for the 7th straight time as Goff had 351 passing yards. L.A. ranks 6th & 2nd in total "O" & "D", while Pats are 21st, & 16th

Rating: 2 Units

Is it possible that horrid Cowboys (3-8) are in a better position than the Ravens (6-4)? When 'Boys lose, they really lose. Zeke: 39 yards from scrimmage in that Thanksgiving Day debacle vs the 'Skins. He also lost his 5th fumble of the year (had 5 in his previous 4 seasons combined). No, 60 rushing  yards as a team will not get it done (122-yard deficit). And that "D" also continues to let this team down, now allowing 20+ points in EVERY game this season (longest streak in team history

Rating: 2 Units

This was the Super Bowl Chris Bermann always wanted, but never got. He was close in '88, '90, '92, & '93, but it never happened. What a game that would have been, it wouldn't have mattered if it was Montana or Young under center. Bills got it done vs the Chargers last week. Nothing fancy, offensively, but were in control from the coin flip. What an upset for the Niners in L.A. last week. Back-to-back sweeps of the Rams. Consider that the Bills are 4-0 vs

Rating: 2 Units

Chiefs absolutely own this team. Since Mahomes has taken over, KC is 6-0 vs Denver. And he has done it every way imaginable: in the snow, & left-handed escaping Von Miller's grasp on MNF 2 years ago. What a joke that the Broncos/Saints game wasn't delayed, but the Ravens/Steelers was. Makes zero sense. Denver had no chance in that one, with their 12 passing yards the fewest in the NFL since 2016. On the other hand, there are the Chiefs: Mahomes, Hill, etc. Best start since 2003 for KC.  Additionally, KC is 9-1 ATS the L10 versus Denver.

Rating: 2 Units

This one could have been a battle of the young guns. However, as we all know, Burrow as KOed for the season 2 weeks ago. Let's hope these 2, along with Herbert are battling in the playoffs for years to come. Where does this team go without Burrow? When you are TD home dogs to any NFC East team, you have pretty much answered that question. Bengals are now 1-13-1 in one possession games over the last 2 seasons. Dolphins' Fitz'magic' got it done again last week, and against one of his many former squads. Miami has now won 6 of its last 7 games, & grabs this contest

Rating: 2 Units

This will loom large come January in regard to playoff seedings. The head-to-head tie-breaker between these two is enormous. The Browns got their 8th win last week in Jacksonville. That's 3 straight. Not the most impressive win, but that running attack is very impressive, keeping them in the thick of the AFC playoff race. Chubb: 144 rushing yards & a TD. The Titans went into Indy & took complete control of AFC South. Derrick Henry is simply a monster: 27 rushes, 178 yards, 3 more TDs. When Titans are cooking, well..

Rating: 2 Units

The Saints just keep marching on. A couple of weeks ago we mentioned the fact that New Orleans has had a 6-game winning streak in each of the last 4 seasons. Well, that run has now been extended to 8 games, after opening the year at 1-2. And they've done it without Brees, which seems unfathomable. But Hill has filled that void quite nicely with his do-it-all capacity. And by the way, how about that Saint "D", ranking 3rd in the NFL. Falcons did everything right against the Raiders last week. But not here

Rating: 2 Units

Rematch of last year's Wild Card game in Philly, when the Seahawks (+2½) upset the Eagles behind Russ & DK Metcalf. Eagles now 3-6-1. "O" line useless in Cleveland, yielding 5 sacks, while Seahawks' Wilson just passed Peyton for most wins (92) by a QB in their first 9 seasons. Philly is 0-4 SU this season vs teams currently over .500, with Wentz owning NFL-high 18 turn overs this season. Seahawk "D" ranks dead last in the NFL, so Eagles a  chance

Rating: 2 Units

We have been stung by the Bears of late, unable to shake those late comebacks in the early season. But they've failed to top 17 pts in 3 of their last 4 games, losing all 4, while QB Foles now has 8 picks. The Packers have settled down following their 4-0 SU/ATS start, & enter this off an OT loss to the Colts. Thus their 3rd loss of the year, so note that they followed up their earlier 2 losses with 35-20 & 34-17 romps over Houston & San Francisco. Ditto.

Rating: 2 Units

This matchup would be completely different with a packed Mile High. Not the case in '20. Here they come. After an 0-3 start the Broncs have won 4-of-7. Saints are now a mind-boggling 6-0 without Brees since last year. Have won 7 straight, averaging 29.6 points per game during that streak. Hill: 18/23 for 233 yards, 51 rushing yards & 2 rushing TDs vs Falcons. And that "D" stepped up , sacking Ryan 8 times. Broncos: no opening TD drive in their last 13 games

Rating: 2 Units

Can Niners' depleted squad play spoiler vs the Rams? They're allowing 32.7 points per game during their 3-game losing streak (first 3-game losing skein since 2018), with Mullens 1 TD with 2 INTs  vs New Orleans last week, his 6th career start with at least 2 turnovers (0-6 record in those 6). Rams are coming in off their Monday Nighter with the Bucs, but are 5-0 with
revenge (lost 24-16 to 49ers on 10/18), & are 14-3 ATS vs an opponent off a double digit SU loss. The SU winner has covered all 10 Niner games to date. Additionally, San Francisco is 0-11 SU, 2-9 ATS the past 11 times when underdogs of six or more points

Rating: 2 Units

Adam Gase Bowl. Is this the one the Jets finally win? Tua got knocked out of the game in Denver, but is expected to start this one. He was sacked 6 times by the Broncos. Fitzpatrick in relief: 12-of-18, with 117 passing yards, but 0 TDs & an end zone pick in the final minute, snapping Dolphins' 5-game winning streak. The Jets have never been 0-10 until now, & are 0-8 vs AFC for first time since 1996. They completed just 3 passes in first half vs Chargers, 4 if you count the awful 'pick-6' from Flacco. No Jet revenge

Rating: 2 Units

Dallas is 8-1 SU all-time vs Washington on Thanksgiving. Most recent results: Dallas 31-23 in '18, Boys 31-26 in '16, Skins 38-31 in '12, behind the brilliance of RG III, Boys 27-20 in '02). Dallas snapped its 4-game losing streak to get their 1st win since Oct 11th, with 31-28 win over Minnesota. And Zeke: 21 rushes, 103 yards. Hard to believe that's his first 100-yd game this season. In addition, the short week favors the home side as well. The Washington Football team beat the Bengals 20-9 at home. Alex Smith earned an important victory, but Washington is still 0-4 against the spread on the road this year.

Rating: 2 Units

Eight years ago, these 2 battled here on Thanksgiving. Texans trailed in that one 24-14 in the 3rd quarter, only to come back & win 34-3, giving them. That win gave them an 11-1 record, on way to ending that season losing to the Pats in the Divisionals. Houston in off first W, Watson: 344 passing Yards, 2 TDs with 0 INTs. His last 5 games: 12 TDs & zero picks. Lions couldn't have looked any worse in Carolina vs their 2nd string QB, with Stafford suffering the first shutout of his career (159th start). The Texans are in the midst of a forgettable season with 3-7 SU, 2-7-1 ATS mark.

Rating: 2 Units

Great Monday Night matchup, with this one looming large when it comes to Wild Card implications in January. These 2 have some playoff history, with both times in the NFC Title game and both with some pretty weird scores: Rams 9-0 in "Big Sombrero" in '79, & Rams 11-6 in St Louis in '99. Rams 4-0 at home allowing 13 points per game, & 6-1 in the NFC. No picks in last week's 27/37, 302 yards, 0 TDs with 0 INTs, Goff effort. His 4th game without a pick (4-0 in those 4). Brady's record vs all teams besides New Orleans this year: 7-1. He was a mere 28-of-39 for 341 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs, & a rushing TD vs Carolina last week

Rating: 2 Units

Revenge? Of course, as the Raiders are the only team to beat the Chiefs since the Packers came into Arrowhead on Oct 27, 2019 & took KC, 31-24, on Sunday night football. KC has gone 19-1 SU since that game. Three straight wins for the Raiders, allowing only 14.7 points per game during that run. Five takeaways vs the Broncos (had 5 total takeaways in their first 5 contests), and 3-0 vs AFC West foes for 1st time since 2010. Chiefs on their 2nd 4-game winning streak this year, with the first one broken by a 40-32 loss to these Raiders. Revenge could be overrated, but not so in this situation

Rating: 2 Units

Battle of a couple of QBs who have already shown signs of brilliance. Of course, Tua came into the NFL with much more fanfare, but Lock has shown he can hold his own. Problem with Lock: Mahomes isn't going anywhere, while Tua timed it perfectly with Brady heading to NFC South. Best start (6-3) for Dolphins since 2001, & on their first 5-game win streak since 2016. Tua is the first rookie to win his first 3 games since Lamar did it in '18. He was a solid 15-of-25, 169 yards, 2 TDs 0 INTs. Drew's 4 picks do not get it done in the NFL. Stats say it's the Broncos, but can't buck oncoming Dolphins

Rating: 2 Units

Many a Browns fan is still hurting over the fact that the Browns took Tim Couch over Donavan McNabb in the 1999 draft. Since then, the Browns have played exactly one playoff game (36-33 loss to Pitt in '02 Wild Card), while McNabb took the Eagles to 4 straight NFL Title Games from '01-'04. Eagles off to worst start since 2012 (3-5-1). Were 0/9 on 3rd downs vs the Giants last week. First game since '04 without a 3rd down conversion. By comparison, best start (6-3) for Browns since '12. Cleveland in off 3rd time in 5 games with 200+ rushing yards. Chubb & Hunt: 126 & 104 rushing yards

Rating: 2 Units

While neither team is up to their normal standards, the Titans' drop has been the more obvious, losing 3-of-4, with the offensive line main culprit, as that unit is hurting. The Ravens well remember losing to Tennessee in last year's Divisionals, & have been pointing to this one ever since. The ineptitude of place kicker Gostkowski eventually has a bearing on a team's morale, Defensively, the Titans rank 25th, & the Ravens rank 8th.

Rating: 2 Units

Third straight great Thursday Night matchup. This looms large when it comes to division rankings & tie-breakers. As we've mentioned before, it's Russell Wilson vs Russell Wilson 2.0. What a win for the Cards vs the Bills last week, after trailing 23-9 in the 2nd half. Murray: 22/32, 245 yards & 1 TD with 1 INT. Also 61 rushing yards with 2 TDs. And he was 4/4 for 75 yards, with successful game-winning "Hail Mary" throw. He is now the 1st QB with a rushing TD in 5 straight games since Tobin Rote in 1956. 'Hawks have lost 3-of-4, since starting at 5-0, with 10 Wilson turn overs in his last 4 games. No TDs & 4 INTs last week

Rating: 2 Units

Don't look now, but the Vikings are suddenly a dangerous team. If Cook continues to pound the rock like he has, the Bears will have their hands full. Is there a better running back in the NFL than Dalvin Cook? Try 22 rushes, 206 rushing yards, 2 TDs (also 46 receiving yards). Cousins: 13/20, 220 yards, & 3 TDs with 0 INTs. First game this season with 2+ TD passes & no picks. Bears putting up only 16.7 points per game in 3-game slide. That's 23 points, or fewer, in all 6 Nick Foles starts this year (2-4 record). Six straight games with fewer than 100 rushing yards (first time since '08-'09). But Bear "D" gives us Monday Night home division dog

Rating: 2 Units

The slate of great games just continues with this NFC West battle. Trust us, both teams are rooting for the Bills & Saints today, with log jam that is the NFC West standings. Seahawks not exactly the "Legion of Boom" anymore. Gave up 44 pts to the Bills, which is the most in Pete Carroll's 11 seasons. Most passing yards allowed thru 8 games by any team in the Super Bowl era (2,897 including 386 in Buffalo). And check Russell Wilson's 4 turn overs in a game for the first time since '16. This one features the Rams' top-rated "D" vs the Seahawks' 31st & last defense. A sweet edge

Rating: 2 Units

What a great inter conference matchup we have here. Super Bowl preview? A long shot for sure, but this is the National Football League, after all. A 7-2 start for the Bills, the best for them since 1993 (the last of 4 consecutive Super Bowl appearances). Josh Allen vs Seahawks last week: 31-of-38, 415 yards, 3 TDs with 0 INTs, & a rushing TD. Wow! His 3rd game of the season without a turn over. Bills 3-0 in those games. Murray has that Cardinal "O" clicking: 21-of-26, 238 passing yards, & 3 TDs with 0 INTs, along with a career-high 106 rushing yards with a rushing TD. Fourth straight game with 30+ points, tying a franchise record. Cards

Rating: 2 Units

Brady takes on the Panthers again. Of course, his most famous battle with Carolina was XXXVIII, when the Pats won 32-29. If you drew 2 & 9 in your Super Bowl pool, you thought you had zero chance of winning. Think again. The 'under' also seemed in the bag, until 37 points in the 4th quarter were scored. Four straight losses by the Panthers, all by 8+ points. McCaffrey has scored 2 TDs in each games he's played this season, but Tampa has won by 31-17 & 38-10 following its 2 previous losses

Rating: 2 Units

The Mark Brunell Bowl. Granted, he only played in 2 games for the Pack (never started), in 1994, before being traded to Jacksonville, which worked out well for the Jags, as they made the 1996 AFC Title game. Rodgers joined Brady (2007) as the only players with 24+ TD passes & 2 picks in their first 8 games of a season. Packers have now scored 30+ points in 6 of their first 8 games of this season (best in the league). The last time Green Bay did that was in 1963. Jags allowing 32.4 points per game during 7-game losing streak, Jacksonville's worst start since '14. When the Bay reaches 30 points, it covers