Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

The Bowl season gets underway when Toledo (7-5) takes on Middle Tennessee St. (6-6). Middle Tennessee sure has some issues at QB as they are down to their 4th string QB as Chase Cunningham, Alec Ogden, and Bailey Hockman are all declared out. This is going to be a game decided by who can win the battle between the potent Toledo running game, and a Middle Tennessee run stop unit that did not allow 100 yard rusher in their last 7 games. Wind will be at least a slight factor as they are projected at 16 MPH with higher gusts, just enough to have some impact. There is one area of this game that is far under the radar. These teams have combined this season for 16 special teams or defensive touchdowns. That amounts to 112 points or 56 per team. Both teams finished plus double-digits in turnover margin, so there is a lot of scoring by these teams that was unrelated to the offense and I think the total here is not where it should be. Both teams are going to want to run the ball which should help to shorten the game as well. I like the under in this one.

The Thursday Night NFL game has serious playoff implications. The Chiefs come in at 9-4, and the Chargers are 8-5. The Chargers offense has been in the driver's seat for most of the season, but at times it has been inconsistent. The big area of concern for the Chargers has been defense. The Charger defense has allowed 20 points or more in 9 straight games, and much more in many of them. The Chiefs have it rolling again, and Coach Andy Reid spent the bye week working on facing a cover-2 defense that they have seen and struggled against much of the season. They put up 48 vs Vegas last week. The Chiefs defense has been immense allowing just 65 total points in their last 6 games at 10.8ppg, and none of their last 3 opponents has topped 9. The Chiefs defense has on average generated 3 turnovers a game for the last 5 games, while the offense has tightened up their early season turnover problem. I like Kansas City in this one.

The Niners lost to Seattle last week 30-23. The good sign for this team is they have out-gained each of their last 4 opponents on the season. The defense has also started to force some turnovers over the 4 games as well with 9. QB Joe Burrow may have some issues as he is probable with a finger injury. Each of these teams has a very long injury report, but the impacts will be felt more by Cincinnati, and even more if Burrow is less than 100%. The Bengals have out-gained opponents by just 7 yards on the season, and San Francisco by 46. That margin is made more significant by the fact that San Francisco has played a much tougher schedule of opponents. This game also fits a situation on the Niners that has been 87-42 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Detroit Lions finally broke through for their first win of the season. The Lions were pounded early in the season but their last 4 games vs Minnesota, Cleveland, Chicago, and Pittsburgh have resulted in a 1-2-1 record and 4-0 ATS. The Lions in those games have been out-scored by just 3 total points. While offense has been mostly bad the defense has allowed 18ppg,right around where Denver averages. This line came out at +7.5 and now +10.5 is showing up. It has been bet into value for the dog, as many feel this will be a letdown spot for the Lions. When you go and play to an 0-9-1 record, and remain competitive, as they have I don't see a letdown I see a team that thinks they can compete and even win. Denver beat Dallas 30-16 after getting whipped by Philadelphia 30-13. Last week they managed 9 points vs the Chiefs. I don't see them rising up to the "A" game vs the lowly Lions and what looks to be a low scoring game, taking double-digits is pretty big. Make the play on Detroit.

Carolina is 5-7 on the season, and 3 games into the return of Cam Newton. While Newton seemed to give the Panthers a lift in his first game back, his numbers are really pretty poor. Newton has gone from a QB that delivered 7 yards per passing attempt in his career to 5.6, and has just 3 TD's and 2 INT's to this point, with a well below average QB rating. The Panther offense has gotten worse with each game. Christian McCaffrey has often been injured in his brief career, but he is now out for the season, and the weapons aren't there anymore. Atlanta is just 1-3 in its last 4 but the losses were to Tampa Bay, Dallas, and New England. Carolina isn't any of those teams. The Falcons also have revenge for a 19-13 loss to Carolina earlier this season. Make the play on Atlanta.

This has suddenly become a huge game for both teams. New England has transformed from a mediocre team into an elite one with the maturation of Mac Jones and overall better play on both sides of the ball. New England has won and covered 6 straight and in the NFL that is a difficult pace for any team to maintain. While they have not consistently shown it this year, The Bills have statistically dominated opponents. I really think the best of what this team has to offer, at home, on a Monday Night, is much more than the Pats have. A lot of what the Pats have done revolves around turnovers, which in the NFL, is highly random. New England has forced 19 turnovers in its last 7 games or almost 3 per contest which is unsustainable. Moreover, Buffalo has 11 turnovers in their last 4 games, almost 3 per contest. This is also unsustainable. Buffalo is +114 yards per game from the line of scrimmage, and +1.4 yards per play better than their opponents. The Pats +38 and +0.6. The Bills by far have been the better team at the line of scrimmage. Almost all positive and negative turnover situations favor the team that has been very negative and has been poor for the team that has been very positive, so that is not an asset for New England here, or a liability for Buffalo, it is the opposite. Make the play on Buffalo.

Time is running out on the Pittsburgh Steelers. This team has always been characterized by strong defense but the last 2 games saw them give up 41 points in each of them. You have to go back all the way to 1989 for the last time the Steelers defense gave up 40+ in 2 straight games. Everyone is saying what is wrong with Baltimore? That seems like a puzzling question regarding a team that is 8-3 and has the best record in the AFC. The Ravens are still out-gaining their opponents on the season, and just seem to have a nose for winning, even when they are not playing well. Pittsburgh is getting crushed at the line of scrimmage. Big Ben is passing for a career low of 6.6 yards per attempt, and it is starting to look like he is finished. I think the Ravens are going to come after him, and it likely won't be pretty. Make the play on Baltimore.

Don't look now but the Taylor Heinicke led Washington Football Team once 2-6 has won 3 straight games, and is back in the playoff picture. What has gone unnoticed is Washington has out-gained each of its last 5 opponents. Vegas finally got a much needed win last week after 3 straight losses. They out-lasted Dallas 36-33 on Thanksgiving. There is a gaping hole on defense however, as the Raiders have allowed 106 total points in their last 3 games. The offense at the same time has produced 16 or fewer points in 3 of its last 4. The Vegas offense is going to be challenged by a suddenly developing Washington defense. Vegas could also be caught looking ahead and take this NFC opponent lightly, especially after getting a win under their belt. Raiders have Kansas City next week, a big division rivalry game. Make the play on Washington.

There are now 9 teams in the AFC that have either 4 or 5 losses. A pair of those teams will take the field in Cincinnati, with the 7-4 Bengals hosting the 6-5 Chargers. The Bengals have suddenly become a running team carrying the ball 38 times in each of the last 2 weeks. They have success piling up 357 yards on the ground. They have won the 2 games by 50 points. That may be more predictive against them as for them. An NFL team that has won their last 2 games by a combined 50 points is 90-111-3 ATS in their next game covering just 44.8% of the time. The Chargers have not been able to put any kind of a winning streak together this season. Statistically they have out-played the Bengals on the season with a considerably stronger strength of schedule. There is an old saying in sports gambling that says, `The team in need, is the team indeed.` The Chargers can ill afford a loss, and they are the better team from the line of scrimmage with a favorable situations as well. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

This is the only covid-19 postponed game all season as USC will take on California to close out the Pac-12 regular season. This has been a brutal season for USC. This team has really struggled to find its way back into the national limelight. USC has moved the ball fairly well but the defense has been really bad. That is where Cal has the edge in this game, as they have great numbers when QB Chase Garbers lines up under center. USC's offense has not been as good without the best offensive player in the conference WR Drake London. The USC offense is also not quite as good with Jaxson Dart at QB, so a couple missing ingredients extends the Cal advantage in this game. USC is also likely to be without top RB Keaontay Ingram. Suddenly, an above average USC offense is below average. I'm not sure if it is the name on the jersey that says USC that has held this line down, but this line is off significantly and I will make the play on Cal.

Iowa wasn't supposed to be here, but things broke right for them, and here they are. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 on the season, and they did it entirely on defense. Iowa may be the first 10-2 P5 conference team to ever finish 10-2 while being out-gained by opponents by 17 yards per game. Their very good defense along with a +13 turnover advantage on the season is what got them here. The problem here is the Michigan offense is as good as the Iowa defense, and when you turn that around, the Iowa offense isn't even nearly on the same level as the Michigan defense. Michigan has out-gained their opponents by 132 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. That is a huge advantage. Make the play on Michigan.

I don't think too many had Wake Forest vs Pitt for the ACC Championship Game back at the beginning of the season. They both enter the game at 10-2. These teams are both very similar on offense. They don't run the ball particularly well, but they have tremendous passing attacks. If you look at both offenses they are pretty much dead even. The difference comes on defense. Wake Forest is out-gaining opponents 484-428 or by 56 yards a game and Pitt 513-353 or by 160 yards per game. Wake gave up 543 yards to Clemson, and 4 of their last 6 opponents went for 42 or more, so the defense if anything may even be regressing. Looking at the 5 common opponents this season Wake went 3-2 and Pitt 5-0. The difference was all defense, as both scored similar points but Wake gave up 9 more points per game. I like Pittsburgh in this one.

Everyone seems to want Cincinnati to stumble. They have passed every test put in front of them this season. The offense and defense are both elite. They will take on an 11-1 Houston team. But in NASA parlance, "Houston, We have a problem." That problem is while the Cougars finished the season 11-1 they had 0 wins vs the top 50! I'm not saying they are not a good team, they are, but they have not faced a team this year that should have beaten them, and what they are going to see on the field this week is completely different. Many think the pressure will be on Cincinnati, but for that matter it has been on them all season. They stepped up every time they had to. I think you are going to see the best of this team on Saturday. They have a chance to make history, and they aren't going leave a bit of energy off the field. They know style points are important, so a back door cover here is not a likely scenario. I see a 2 TD+ win here for the Bearcats. Make the play on Cincinnati.

There is a lot on the line here for both teams. Georgia ran the regular season table finishing 12-0, while Alabama had 1 loss at 11-1. Additionally, Alabama played a lot of close games and were lucky to get out of the Iron Bowl game vs Auburn with a win. This is the best chance Georgia has had to beat Alabama. It is also their best chance for a National Championship as well. Win or lose Georgia will be in the playoffs, for Alabama it is a must win. I think both of these offenses are elite, and the big difference here is the Georgia defense allowed fewer than 7 points a game on the season, and no team produced better than 17 against them. (Last team to allow 17 or fewer points to every team was 1979 Texas). Alabama is almost always the team with the best defense, and that simply is not the case this year for the Tide. The defense is good, but it is not on the level the Georgia defense is and that should be the difference in this game. Bryce Young will be under more pressure in this game than he has felt all season. Alabama has beaten Georgia 6 straight times. I think this is going to be the end of that. Make the play on Georgia.

I think Russell Wilson might have returned to the field too soon, but he should be getting healthy and he has a very favorable match up in this game. The Seahawks 13 total points scored in their last game has left them entirely under-valued. A match up against Taylor Heincke as a 1 point favorite is too hard to pass up. Pete Carroll Seattle teams off 2 straight losses are 15-2 ATS, and love the match up in this one. (6-0 ATS vs a team under .5000. Good opportunity in this one, which also has a Monday Night dog situation attched to it that is 48-17 ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

The Baltimore Ravens caught a lot of bettors off-guard last week when Lamar Jackson was a late scratch due to illness. He is listed as questionable as of right now, but I'm pretty sure he will play. The Ravens offense is simply on another level when they play at home. The last 2 seasons they have averaged just shy of 30ppg here. The Cleveland offense has had success running the ball, but it is a passing league, and the Browns offense has sputtered on multiple occasions generating 17 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games. They are going to have to do a lot better than that to stay in the game vs a Raven's team that has shown little problems scoring on anyone at home. Make the play on Baltimore.

It is never easy going into Green Bay in late November, or any time for that matter. The Rams have suddenly lost 2 straight games and have failed to cover their last 4. This all boils down to Matthew Stafford vs Aaron Rodgers. The fact is Rodgers is dealing with a toe injury that apparently got worse last week, but he will play. Stafford plain and simple is having a better year than Rodgers, and I trust the Rams defense a lot more than the defense of Green Bay which was exposed last week by Kirk Cousins. The Packers offense is producing 7.5 points less than a year ago, and the margin for error has slipped. The numbers say the Rams are the better team from the line of scrimmage. Make the play on the LA Rams.

This game is based on one of my favorite and most reliable total situations. If you play on the under when a team enters the game off a road favorite loss of 10 points or more from game 4 on they are 175-110-6 ATS to the under. If their opponent is off a loss the under is 37-6-1 ATS to the under, including 28-3 ATS in the last 31 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

There is a big log jam of potential playoff teams in the AFC. There are currently an amazing 9 teams that have either 4 or 5 losses. The Indianapolis Colts are one of them at 6-5. The Colts may not be as good as the 6-5 record as they are slightly negative from the line of scrimmage. Their 6 wins are games which saw them turn the opponent over 16 times, and in those games they have had a turnover margin of better than 2 per contest. The 6 wins have also come to teams that have a collective record of 22-40. Five of those teams have a combined record of 15-36. Tampa Bay is not one of them. The Colt losses have seen the opponent average 29ppg, and Tampa Bay is that team. Turnovers are in a large part random, and it would not be expected to see the Colts benefit from better than a 2 turnover advantage like they have. A team with a 2 or more turnover margin wins 87.2% of the time which is the reason the Colts are even 6-5. Tampa Bay is the better team and takes care of the ball a lot better than the 6 teams the Colts have beaten. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

Anyone that watched Atlanta lose 25-0 to New England last Thursday Night will have a hard time taking them this week. Looking back at the prior week vs Dallas, they managed just 3 points. That may be better stated by saying unless they are playing Jacksonville. The Jags have averaged just 10.8ppg in their last 4. I like Matt Ryan vs the rookie Trevor Lawrence who is suffering a lot of growing pains. Since the start of the 2015 season a team coming off a shutout has gone 24-7-2 ATS in their next game. I also think the Falcons have the match up edges here as well. Lawrence hasn't thrown a TD pass in 3 games. Make the play on Atlanta.

This game is interesting because Carolina and Miami are two of the most frequent blitzing defenses in the NFL. Miami started the season 1-7 but the Dolphins have come to life with 3 straight wins and covers and the defense has lead the way. The Dolphins are allowing 12ppg in their last 3, all wins. The Cam Newton hype came to an end when the Panthers lost to Washington as a favorite. Newton came off the bench 2 games back and scored a TD and screamed, "I'm back," Maybe that is not such a good thing as the Panthers are now 0-9 in Newtons last 9 starts. Make the play on Miami.

The New England Patriots have been the best team in the NFL over the last 5 weeks. The Pats are 5-0 winning by 25 points per game. Rookie QB Mac Jones has led the offense to 35 points per game. The Pats are playing at an unsustainable pace after an ugly 2-4 start to the season. Tennessee played their worst game of the season losing to Houston as a double-digit favorite, and teams off a double digit favorite loss in the NFL are 79-60-5 ATS in their next game. The Pats have won their last 2 by 25 points or more and NFL teams doing so are 28-47-1 ATS in their next game including 9-24 ATS vs a team better than .600. A closer look shows New England has beaten 7 teams with a combined record of 27-45. Make the play on Tennessee.

I think there is a lot of hidden value in this one. UCLA demolished their rival USC and put up 62 points and 609 yards of offense. Cal has actually been the better team in yards per play differential this season. The other point of value is the Cal loss to lowly Arizona 10-3. Cal had over 24 players and coaches out with covid-19, including their QB. That is the biggest impact that covid has had in a college football game all season. They came back and crushed Stanford last week. The Cal defense is finally living up to expectations allowing 15.5ppg in its last 6 and has not failed to cover a game since October the 2nd. I like the points here. Cal can make it to a Bowl with 2 wins in their last 2 games. Full effort should be the case here, and not so much for UCLA. Make the play on California.

This is not only a huge rivalry game, but with both teams at 10-1 and still some hope of making the playoffs it will be an intense battle. This is usually an offensive showcase, but the Oklahoma Sooners offense is not anything like it has been the past few years. They have managed 14 points vs Baylor and 28 vs Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. has one of the best defenses in the country. The Cowboys have held opponents to 13 fewer points than they average on the season, and no team has scored more than 24 points against them all season. Oklahoma has a huge gap between home and road offensively. The Sooners have put up 41ppg at home but just 21.5ppg on the road. While it has been typical over the past few years that in pretty much every game the Sooner offense is the best unit on the field. That won't be the case here it will be the Oklahoma St. defense. The Sooners are out-gaining opponents by just 0.2 yards per play on the road. Coach Gundy gets his teams ready to play in a favorite role where they are 82-54 ATS. Oklahoma St. is currently 7th in the playoff standings. Baylor is #8. A win here and a win in the B-12 Championship game over Baylor would leave Oklahoma St. 3 points from an unbeaten season, and at 12-1 they are going to be in the hunt. I think they are the better team, with a lot to play for, and have always played well at home. My NCAAF GOM IS ON OKLAHOMA ST.

The fate of the Old Dominion team changed when they finally had seen enough of QB D.J. Mack, and replaced him with Hayden Wolff. Old Dominion began the season at 0-5 against FBS teams, and they have since gone 4-0 and have a lot of feel good and momentum. A win here will get them bowl eligible. The Monarchs have also covered 4 straight. Old Dominion will go up against one of the worst defenses in the country. Charlotte allows 7.1 yards per play and the Old Dominion defense is pretty good. This game looks like at least a comfortable 2 TD win, and probably more. Make the play on Old Dominion.

I`m not sure it was supposed to end this way but David Cutliffe has gone full circle at Duke. He inherited perhaps the worst P5 program in the country, and made the program viable. Duke went from doormat to a team that won 7 or more games in 5 of 6 years, but he is leaving right where he started off. Duke has a total of 5 wins the last 2 years and over their last they have been outscored 51-15 on average per game. Miami, Fla. has lost 3 of their last 7 games by a combined total of 8 points. That is how close they are to being 7-0. Miami has scored 28 points or more in all 7, and against a Duke team that allows 9.6 yards per pass attempt, the Hurricanes are going to get a lot more. Make the play on Miami, Fla.

This is a big game for both teams as the winner will become bowl eligible. While both teams are 5-6 there is a big difference between the teams. Simply put, Maryland is the much better team. The 6 Maryland losses came against the top 6 Big-10 teams. They have played a very difficult schedule. Maryland is 5-0 vs a team on Rutgers level by an average of 19ppg. Rutgers was beaten by 6 Big-10 teams by an average final score of 34-8. Maryland has not only played a more aggressive schedule, they have out-gained opponents from the line of scrimmage by a lot more than Rutgers. Make the play on Maryland.

The season did not go quite as planed for North Carolina. They have a very good QB in Sam Howell, but the defense was not up to a high enough standard and they enter their finale at just 6-5. North Carolina has allowed 41.2ppg to their last 5 FBS opponents. The offense just can't overcome that week after week. The NC State defense may be the best they have faced all season. The Wolfpack allows just 4.8 yards per play and the pass defense is 1.2 yards per play better than the schedule of opponents they have faced this season. This game also fits a situation that is 101-64 ATS. Make the play on NC State,

This will be a tough spot for Arkansas to find its "A" game. The Razorbacks took Alabama to the wire last week and emptied the tank in doing so, especially emotionally. Arkansas has played a very difficult schedule and this game following the big one last week vs Alabama provides a good spot for Missouri to stay close. Missouri QB Connor Bazlak is not to bad and Arkansas will once again be without the services of Jalen Catalon who makes a huge difference in the Arkansas secondary.Missouri has been playing much better of late as the Tigers are 3-1 in their last 4 and has covered 3 straight. Think this is too many points. Make the play on Missouri.

Nebraska has had a very difficult season. The Cornhuskers are 3-8 but have not lost a game by more than 9 points all season.This will be the first time in NCAA Football history that a 3-8 team is favored over a 9-2 team. The previous 82 times this has occurred the 3-8 team was never better than a +7.5 point favorite. Nebraska took a blow with QB Adrien Martinez out for this game. Martinez is an experienced and very good QB, and he is also a top runner. The Nebraska offense is going to take a hit facing a very strong Iowa defense. There is also some hidden value here as the Nebraska special teams are brutal and Iowa has one of the best special teams in NCAA Football. Add it all up and Iowa is the choice here in this one.

The Buffalo Bills are still the best team from the line of scrimmage in the NFL. The issue of late has been turnovers, which have cost the Bills dearly. Buffalo has turned the ball over 9 times in their last 3 games, and that doesn't last forever, it tends to even out. The Saints have been great as a dog under Sean Payton but that didn't work out last week in a 40-29 loss. The Saints have bigger issues as the injuries are mounting, and it looks like several key offensive players will be missing this week, or at best a few may be playing through some injuries. It is time for the Bills to show the nation how good they are, as they are statistically the best team and facing a Saints team with a lot of injuries coming off a short week, which will challenge their depth. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Dallas Cowboys are just a game behind the Arizona Cardinals for the top seed in the NFC. They know they need to win to keep pace. They should have a strong chance in this one. It is very difficult for a team to travel for a Thursday game after playing on Sunday. Thursday home favorites are 97-69-5 ATS covering 58.4% of all games. That goes to 50-30-2 ATS when they are favored by 6 or more points. Make the play on Dallas.

This game makes little sense. Both teams will be starting back up QB's and the Lions from week 2 on have yet to score 20 points in a game. Tim Boyle threw for 77 yards last week and 2 INT's, and now the Bears go with back up Andy Dalton (who is better than Fields by the way). The Bears defense is bad enough for even Boyle and the inept Lions to do something, and Dalton is an upgrade for the Bears offense. This game seems so obvious it should stay under the total, and I have seen games like this all too often where weird things happen and the expected quickly goes sideways. I like the over in this one.

The Saints are suddenly just a game behind the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC South. They have a great match up in this one vs the Eagles. The Eagles are the top running team in the NFL, but that plays into the hands of the New Orleans defense which ranks #2 in the NFL. The Saints have allowed the fewest points in the NFC (178). If the Saints succeed in turning the Philadelphia offense into a passing team it looks a lot different. Not many teams are having success on the ground so I expect Philly to have to throw more, and while the running game has kept the turnovers low, that might change here. Alvin Kamara from all reports looks like a go this week. Sean Payton has gotten remarkable results from his team as an under dog over the years, as his teams are 49-21-2 ATS as a dog and lately that is 13-1-1 ATS, and 4-0 ATS this season. His New Orleans team is also 28-9 ATS off a loss of 6 points or fewer, and 50-18 ATS vs a team that averages 24 or more points per game. Make the play on New Orleans.

The numbers say that Tua Tagovailoa should be the starting QB for Miami, he is only because of injury. His numbers are not great, but better than the other two. He may not achieve those numbers this week. The Jets have a pass rushing duo of John Franklin-Myers, and Quinen Williams who are both great at getting sacks and pressure, and each has a tremendous match up advantage this week. Joe Flacco is an upgrade at QB only from the sense he is careful with the ball, and should not turn it over much if any. The other Jet QB's already have thrown a ridiculous 17 INT's on the season. All the situations are on the Jets this week, including one that is 184-91 ATS that plays on bad ATS teams at this point of the season. Make the play on the NY Jets.

Aaron Rodgers at QB tends to say offense, but the Packer offense has been sputtering all season. They rank in the bottom third of the league. The last 5 games has the Green Bay offense averaging just 19.2ppg. Meanwhile the Packers who have been labeled an offensive team during the Rodgers era have become one of the top defenses in the league. Green Bay has held its last 5 opponents to 11.6ppg.The Packers have in fact played 7 straight games to the under. No opponent in that stretch has scored more than 22 points against them. The Packers have not topped the 27 point mark in any of the 7 games either, and collectively the 7 Packer games have averaged just 35 total points. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 to the under holding 5 opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Packers are 4-1 to the under in its last 5 played in Minnesota with the average total score being fewer than 41 points. This game also fits a situation that is 50-15 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

The San Francisco 49ers have had to deal with injuries, but are starting to get healthy. They are still in the playoff hunt as they head to Jacksonville to take on the Jags. The Niner offense is in much better hands when Jimmy Garoppolo is under center especially on the road as a favorite. Garoppolo is 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS as a road favorite for his career, with his team averaging 30.8ppg. Trevor Lawrence was considered a can't miss quarterback coming out of Clemson, but he has really struggled in his rookie year, throwing more INT's than TD's. Garoppolo has a 111 passer rating as a road chalk. The Niners need to win this game, and start feeling good, so at 4-5 this is not a letdown spot, but an "A" game spot, and the Niners "A" game is better than a TD over Jacksonville. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Buffalo Bills have played rather mediocre of late. They somehow couldn't score against Jacksonville, and lost 9-6. The good news is despite some head scratching things, this team is still statistically the best NFL team, and odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl based on the metrics. Indianapolis is 5-5 on the season, and they may not be even that good. The Colts are 5-0 vs 5 teams that have a combined record of 12-34, and 0-5 vs 5 opponents that are a combined 32-16. The Bills obviously fit on that 0-5 side of the Colt's season, and I think the Bills have a big advantage here. Make the play on Buffalo.

When you think of Ole Miss you immediately think of high scoring games. They have played to lofty totals all season, but their games have not been as explosive as the odds-makers have suggested. Ole Miss has actually played 5 straight games to the under. The total for this one is running in the mid 60s and it just doesn't fit what these teams have done on the season. Vanderbilt doesn't belong in the SEC, which is part of the reason, but the Commodores have allowed 45 points or less in SEC games this season, and have allowed 40 on average. The issue for them is can they score? Vanderbilt is averaging just 10ppg in their 6 conference tilts this season, so their SEC games have averaged just 50ppg, and 4 of their last 5 have played under the total. Ole Miss has scored 31 or fewer points in 5 of their 6 SEC games which have averaged 61.7ppg, and 5 straight have played under the total. The total suggests a51-14 final score, while combined these teams average 56.1ppg in SEC games. If you look at Ole Miss and their outlier 52-51 win vs Arkansas, their SEC games average just 53.4ppg. Vandy lost to Georgia 62-0, otherwise their SEC games have seen 49.8ppg scored. What I am suggesting is it will take another outlier game to push this over the total. Moreover, Ole Miss is off a huge upset of Texas A&M, and are in a letdown spot, and on deck for them is the Egg Bowl rivalry game vs Miss St. I don't them pushing hard in this game. Make the play on the under.

UCLA and USC share a city rivalry. The Bruins should have won last year, and I think this is one of those circled games. The Trojans will be handicapped in this one as their top 2 offensive players QB Kedon Slovis, and WR Drake London are out. USC has 16 players on the injury report which has devastated this team. UCLA started strong, but are 3-3 in their last 6 with all 3 losses coming to teams at the top of the conference. They have handled everyone else. The Trojans are a negative team allowing more yards per play than they generate, and down to a freshman QB without a top target is going to be difficult. UCLA is positive from the line of scrimmage and the huge edge comes in the passing game, as USC has not been able to defend a competent passing attack all season. There really isn't any home field advantage here as both teams play in the same city. Coach Kelly has seen his teams go 17-2 ATS off a game where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers, and this game fits in a 76-31 ATS situation favoring the Bruin's as well. Make the play on UCLA.

The Wisconisn Badgers started the season 0-3, but have run off 7 straight. Wisconsin was lacking a running game and they started giving Allen the ball and the offense started having success running the ball as they have for years. The defense has allowed just 7.3ppg in their last 6. You won't find value on a team doing that. Nebraska is hidden solidly under the radar with a 3-7 record. Their stats would indicate a top 25 team, but they have 7 losses. They have out-gained those 7 opponents combined, and their losses include playoff hopefuls Oklahoma, Ohio St., Michigan, and Michigan St. None of the 7 losses have come by more than 9 points, so things could look a lot different for this team. I believe Nebraska is the better overall team and Wisconsin is going to be in for a game. Make the play on Nebraska.

The wheels have come off for Indiana. The Hoosiers appeared to have things turned around with a pair of Bowl appearances in the last 2 years, but rising expectations have been derailed. Indiana is not a team that can just reload, and they lost their top 3 players to the NFL a year ago. Having QB Michael Penix back from a torn ACL a year ago may have set unrealistic expectations, and at 2-8 on the season, and 1 of just 3 Power 5 teams that has yet to beat another Power 5 team, the season has been a disaster. Penix is doubtful here and is still nursing a shoulder injury. Jack Tuttle took over but he has just a 51.7% completion percentage with 2 TDs and 5 INT's. Donavon McCulley took over when Tuttle was injured and completed just 42.7% of his passes. It all coes down to no good options. The Hoosiers did score 35 against Maryland but against 6 other Big-10 opponents they scored a total of 38! The Gophers have had some offensive issues of their own, but have above average receivers, that need to get the ball more. The biggest area of consistency for Minnesota has been defense. The last 4 opponents have seen none generate more than 277 yards, and Indiana is going to really struggle to move the ball here regardless of who is at QB. They may not score a lot, but they likely won't need to. Make the play on Minnesota.

A lot of bettors shy away from very big point spreads. I never look at it that way. The size of the line has nothing to do with winning and losing, it is the value. Umass is a true bottom feeder, and Army beat this team 63-7 in 2019. Army has shown no mercy when playing very bad teams as they have beaten this number many times in recent years. Walt Bell has really struggled trying to get the UMass program competitive. The road has been a colossal struggle. Walt Bell has played 14 road games since taking over at UMass and his team is 2-12 ATS losing by an average score of 50.5-8.1. This year his team has played 4 road games and opponents have on average won by 48.8ppg, with no opponent winning by fewer than 44! Yes the line is huge for this game, but I see Army winning here by 45 plus points. Make the play on Army.

The look of this Texas team right now is brutally ugly. The Horns have dropped 5 straight games and a once-proud blue-blood program is looking to be at rock bottom right now. Who wants any part of this team right now? It has dramatically impacted the betting line as Texas opened a -2.5 point favorite, and is now a 2.5 point underdog. This is a great spot to buy low. Taking a look at the 5 games lost, 4 were to the best 4 teams in the Big-12. After that gauntlet of high-profile teams, the Horns lost to lowly Kansas 57-56. A closer look shows Texas dominated that game out-gaining the Jayhawks 574-420. That was despite the fact that Texas lost the turnover battle 4-0. One of the turnovers was a pick-6. West Virginia doesn't have the offense to stay with Texas, and the Mountaineers are no bargain at 2-5 SU in their last 7 games. A team that has a winning percentage of .333 or worse and is posted as a home favorite and facing a team better than .333 is just 395-504-14 ATS at 43.9%. That goes to 120-174-9 ATS to a line of less than -4. I see tremendous line value here with Texas. My game of the year is on Texas. (+3  -125).

The Las Vegas Raiders have had some difficult personnel problems over the last week that has left this team in a rather poor emotional state, and overall weaker than they were prior to some really sad events. The Vegas offense has been highly inconsistent, and the defense has allowed 20+ points in 6 straight games, which has added pressure to the offense. The Raiders turned the ball over 3 times vs the Giants last week in a 23-16 loss, and are now just 2-3 in their last 5 games. The Chiefs are still struggling at 5-4 on the season, but the defense has really taken a step forward after several games allowing 30+ points, Kansas City has allowed just 16ppg over its last 4. The Chiefs have won their last 2 games despite combining for just 33 points in those games. Patrick Mahomes numbers are way down, but there is too much talent on the offensive side of the ball to be held down forever, and the improvement on defense keeps them in games, and the offense is going be be better going forward. Vegas has long struggled in toss-up type games, as they are 61-90 ATS since 1992 to a line of -3 to +3. They are also 28-48 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less over the same period. I like Kansas City in this one.

This game features a pair of QB's having good seasons, as well as a pair of defenses that are suffering from a rash of injuries. The Chargers defense has allowed 31.8ppg over their last 4 and the Vikings will have up to as many as 5 key starters that may miss this game. The Chargers are ranked last in the NFL in success rate over their last 4 games. This game fits a situation that has been 87-46 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

Cleveland and New England both come into this game at 5-4 so it has a lot of playoff implications. I like the fact that Cleveland has under-achieved their stats this year, and New England has over-achieved their stats. New England has won and covered 3 straight games, so they are getting a bump in the line. The Pats are pretty even from the line of scrimmage out-gaining opponents by just 6 yards per game. Compare that to the Browns who own the edge on both sides of the ball and have out-gained opponents by 70 yards per game, and 1.1 yards per play. That equates to a very live dog here. The Cleveland defense is finally getting results as they are allowing 15ppg over its last 3 contests. The Browns have out-gained 7 of its 9 opponents on the season. Overall the Browns are the better team from the line of scrimmage putting them in a good role as the market has moved this line towards New England, and I believe they are the better team at this point of the season. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Tennessee Titans are in short company right now. Last week they became just the 14th team in the NFL over the past 33 years to win 4 straight games as a dog. So when these teams change roles and become a favorite in their next game they have gone 1-7 ATS. Moreover, these teams have won just 2 times straight up. The NFL is a tough place to sustain such excellence. Has it really been excellence? The Titans have statistically been a poor team, despite 5 straight wins. Those 5 games has seen them out-gained 1,909-1,633. That doesn't say 5-0. They have enjoyed winning the turnover battle, as they have had 1 game where the turnovers were even and they were +6 in the other 4. It is rare for a team to be 7-2 and yet out-gained on the season by the 9 opponents. I'm making this game about the Titans who have taken advantage of good luck, but it has a way of turning around and burning them as well. They are off their biggest win of the season against the Rams, and Henry is out for the season, and this looks like the right spot to turn them away. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Stanford Cardinal have struggled, and last week they played without QB Tanner McKee. It was a total disaster as the Cardinal lost 52-7 and passed for 85 yards at 3.6 yards per attempt. McKee is very unlikely yo play this week and Stanford head coach is going to go with freshman Ari Patu. It would be the first time a freshman QB has ever started a game in the Shaw era. Oregon St. has appeared to slip lately but it has been a tale of two teams this season for the Beavers. They are 1-4 at home, but 4-0 at home where they have averaged winning by 17.8ppg. Stanford didn't cross mid-field the entire 1st half last week and scored 7 points on just 167 yards of total offense. Patu will be the 4th different starting QB for Stanford this year, so call him the 4th string QB. West and Sanders have not gotten it done when called on. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers saw their games average in the 40s last year. This team has opened up the offense and are one of the top offensive teams in the league averaging 513 yards per game. They should have no trouble reaching or topping those numbers vs Rice, who allowed 620 yards to Texas, and 52 points to UTSA. The Hilltoppers over the last 5 weeks are averaging 43+ points per contest. Rice is averaging 19.3ppg but have been shutout by Texas, and UTSA in its last 7 games, and otherwise has averaged 30ppg in their other 5. Western Kentucky is allowing 29.3ppg on the season, and there is plenty of room for a lot of scoring here. Make the play on the over.

Mississippi St. comes into this game just 5-4 on the season, but a closer look reveals things are better than they appear. They were no match for Alabama, but their other 3 losses came by 2 vs Memphis, 3 by LSU, and 3 vs Arkansas. Most telling i the yardage edge they had in those games which was an amazing 1440-982. They out-gained all 3 opponents by an average of better than 150 yards per contest. This is a team that has averaged 18 more snaps per game more than their opponent, and is where a lot of the hidden value lies. This team is good defensively, and certainly can play from behind if necessary. Auburn QB Bo Nix is completing less than 60% of his passes and the Auburn passing game is a tick below average. Miss St. could realistically be 8-1 coming into this game, or certainly better than the 5-4 record they present here, which has their true ability well under the radar. Too many points here, make the play on Mississippi St.

The Oklahoma Sooners are a perfect 9-0 on the season. There is an ominous sign for this team. Despite reputation, and being one of just 2 P5 teams in the country to have a perfect record they are currently ranked #8 to be in the playoffs. There is good reason for that. This is not the same Oklahoma team we have seen in recent years. They have yet to face a team in the top 25, and despite of that they have won games by the slimmest of margins. They have had one possession wins vs Tulane, Nebraska, W. Virginia, Texas, and Kansas St. They have out-gained opponents by just 95 yards per game. Not typical of an elite 9-0 team. Baylor has out-gained their schedule of opponents by an equal 93 yards per game. The Baylor yards per play differential exceeds that of Oklahoma. It is by reputation and a 9-0 record that has Oklahoma as a road favorite in this one. The Bears got caught ast week in a look ahead in an upset loss to TCU. Expect their best game of the year in this one. Oklahoma has yet to play the top 3 teams in the B-12 which are Baylor, Iowa St., and Oklahoma St. (2 of them on the road). I think this is a toss up game, so adding in home field advantage and getting several points, makes the Bears a live dog here. Baylor has been knocking on the door the last 3 years vs Oklahoma, losing by 11, then 7, then 3 and covering them all, this year I think they crash through with the upset. Make the play on Baylor.

The Temple Owls have had a very trying season, and this team looks like they have packed it in. The Owls last 4 games have been complete wipe outs as the Owls have been out-scored 180-27. Houston brings in an 8 game winning streak and is averaging 39.1ppg on the season, but should be able to exceed those numbers vs the hapless Owls. The Owls offense has seen a lot of garbage time against non-starters over the 4 weeks and still have managed to average 243 yards per game, and just 6.8ppg. The Owls 6 losses have come by an average of 37.5ppg! Make the play on Houston.

Quite often we see a team put together a nice run in the NFL, but all that serves to accomplish is to electrify the bettors in their favor. The NFL has shown that when a team wins and covers 3 straight and are now facing a winning team they are 99-160-6 ATS if they are on the road. Basically there are a lot of red lights facing the Titans this week. The Rams certainly improved their defense adding Von Miller. Cooper Kupp should have aa big day against the Titan's secondary, and the Titans without Henry are going to be a lot more one-dimensional. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Arizona Cardinals suffered their first loss of the season last week at the hands of the 7-1 Green Bay Packers. This has historically been a good spot for NFL teams as 7 or 8 win teams with just 1 loss are 56-40-1 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 3-4 and their season is on the line. They got back on track last week with an 11 point win vs Chicago. Kyler Murray has an injured ankle and his status is listed as questionable, so this is a risky play as the line has hedged against Murray playing. I like the value vs risk here and will make the play on Arizona.

The Cleveland Browns have to be disappointed in their 4-4 record on the season. They have greatly under-achieved their stats. Injuries have played a significant role in their fate, but at some point the stats they are putting up will get results. The Browns are out-gaining opponents by 77 yards a game, while Cincinnati is doing so by just 2 yards per game. Cincinnati played their worst game of the season against the hapless Jets last week in a 34-31 loss, despite a 2 turnover advantage. The Browns are running more plays a game than their opponents and Cincinnati fewer plays than their opponent so the overall differential is greater than it looks. Cleveland also applies to a 186-97 ATS situation. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Minnesota Vikings season is essentially on the line this week. The Vikings at 3-4 and playing in the top heavy NFC can not afford to go to 3-5 or their season is going to be getting away from them so I expect a major effort here. The Vikings have 4 losses by a combined 15 points, and have 0 losses by more than 1 possession. Baltimore is not looking like the same team they have in recent years. The hallmark defense is now in the bottom 1/3 in the league. The running game is still potent, but it has not generated nearly the type of games we have seen in the recent past. Injuries have compromised this team and the Ravens are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite this season. I think Cousins will have a lot of success going against a secondary that allowed over 400 passing yards to Vegas, and Cincinnati this season, as well as 390 to Indianapolis. The back door is wide open here, and don't be surprised if the Vikings come away with a straight up win. Make the play on Baltimore.

A lot will be fooled by the records of these teams. Tennessee is much better than their 4-4 record, as they are above average on both sides of the ball. Kentucky got off to a 6-0 start but have been exposed the last 2 weeks by Miss St., and Georgia. The Wildcats were mild cats on offense producing 459 total yards in the 2 games combined. Kentucky has beaten itself a lot with 3 or more turnovers in 3 games already on the season. The 3 turnovers a game equals the amount of total turnovers Tennessee has made over the last 6 games! Tennessee lost last year when they went into halftime with a 203-75 yardage edge, yet trailed 17-3. Kentucky had 2 pick-6s in the first half. They certainly should be motivated here to return the favor. Tennessee has gone 31-3 SU vs Kentucky the last 34 games, and are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 trips to Lexington. Tennessee is off a bye, and the last time Kentucky won 2 in a row vs Tennessee is in 1976! Tennessee will stop the Kentucky ground game, as they lead the country with 70 tackles for a loss this season. Tennessee has fared much better vs common opponents, and the final score vs Alabama last week was misleading as the Vols trailed by 7 in the 4th quarter. This game also fits a 122-57 ATS situation for Tennessee. Make the play on Tennessee.

Both these teams enter this game at 4-4, and this game will certainly have Bowl implications, with the winner taking a leg up, and the loser left below .500. Western Kentucky is so different than they were a year ago. Last year they were in defensive games, this year they have a potent offense. The Hilltoppers are 3rd in the country averaging 533 yards per game, as well as 13rd in the country in yards per play margin. This is a passing attack that will really test the back 7 of Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders are going to have to score a lot of points here, and after having a pair of QB's already leave the team, current starting QB Chase Cunningham is questionable with an undisclosed injury or issue. This line is light because Middle Tennessee is off a pair of big blowout wins by 31 and 25 points. The problem is the 2 teams are both bottom 5 or 10 in the country, and this is a whole different opponent. Interesting note on last week for Middle Tennessee. They beat Southern Miss 35-10, but the box score shows they were held to 284 total yards. They scored 3 non-offensive TD's in the game, so the offense generated just 10 points. There is a lot of hidden value in this game. Middle Tennessee has defended the pass well, but they have yet to face a team that throws for close to 400 yards a game. W. Kentucky plays at a very high tempo and as it is Middle Tennessee is -11 plays per game vs their opponents this year. That could be higher this week. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

Here we go again. These games always look horrible for the dog, but have a huge and long history of covering. I played Navy for the same reason this year vs Cincinnati, and will play them again based on this. Military teams run the ball almost every down. It shortens the game, and makes large point spreads very difficult to take down despite the talent differential. Play on any Military team that is a dog of 20 or more points. They are 82-37-4 ATS in this role. Make the play on Navy.

Temple is 3-4 on the season, but the schedule has more to do with that than anything else. The Owls beat Wagner, and Akron among their 3 wins. They played a perfect unexpected game against Memphis in a 3 point upset win. Their last 3 games saw them get out-scored 135-24 turning the ball over 9 times and failing to generate more than 283 yards in any of the 3. ECU is 4-4 on the season. ECU has lost to South Carolina by 3, Central Florida by 4, and Houston by 7. Temple is a very bad team, and ECU can move the ball offensively with both the run and the pass. The Owls are poor on both sides of the ball and won't keep the pace here. Make the play on East Carolina.

While this is a natural in-state rivalry, Kansas has now lost 12 straight times to Kansas St. Kansas St. has not allowed Kansas to score more than 21 points in any of the 12 games, and has averaged allowing just 14.3ppg. The Jayhawks this year in their 7 games vs FBS opponents stand at 0-7 with an average scoring margin of -32.4ppg. While the line appears steep here, the ingredients and history show it isn't large enough. Last year these teams played 7 common opponents in which Kansas was out-scored by 36.3 points per game and the 4 common opponents this year show Kansas at -31 points per game. Kansas St. has lost to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., and Iowa St. and were competitive in all 3 games. The distance between these 2 teams is beyond the line in this one. Make the play on Kansas St.

The New Orleans Saints are 4-2 but they really don't have the look of a 4-2 team. They have losses to the Giant's and Panthers, and their offense has been really awful to this point. They will not be running on Tampa Bay in this game and that means Jameis Winston has to put the ball in the air a lot for offensive success. The Buc's are allowing fewer than 15ppg in its last 4 contests. Tampa Bay has forced 14 turnovers in 7 games and Winston is a turnover machine. Brady is 54-33 ATS as a favorite in his last 87 games. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

When you look at the records of these teams and see the Chargers at 4-2 and the Patriots at 3-4, and throw in the perception of these teams and the line appears to be on the mark. However, when you look at the stats these teams are pretty much a dead heat. Even the QB match up appears to favor the Chargers but both teams are averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots do not get beaten badly too often. This year they have one loss by more than 6 points. Mac Jones has a 93 passer rating and is getting better by the week. Justin Hebert has been solid and had a great rookie season a year ago but the Chargers are just 10-11 in his 21 starts an indication that the rest of the pieces are not in place. Make the play on New England.

The Cleveland Browns have statistically been a better team than what you have seen in the win column. They have dealt with a considerable amount of injuries, but will be glad to have Baker Mayfield, who should be joined by Nick Chubb, as well as RT Jack Conklin. The Browns have a healthy offensive line, and Pittsburgh has one of the worst run stop units in the league, and I expect the Brown's run at will in this game. The Browns strong pass defense may be attacked underneath by Big Ben who has been forced to get rid of the ball quickly, and has the fastest release time in the league t 2.3 seconds. I think this is a highly favorable match up for the Browns, and I will make the play on Cleveland.

The Atlanta Falcons are suddenly 3-3 on the season, but a closer look shows that they have beaten 3 teams that combine to have a record of 4-16 on the season. Matt Ryan is starting to show age and a bad offensive line. His 3 year average yards per pass attempt is 7.5. His yards per attempt last year was 7.3 which has eroded to a pedestrian 6.8 this year despite playing a very weak schedule. The Falcons have been out-gained by Philadelphia, Washington, the Giants, and Miami. Carolina has dropped 4 straight games where they have been a total of -6 in turnovers. Opponents have out-gained Atlanta on the season, and the opponents they have faced are certainly not very potent. I like Carolina in this one.

The Rams are part of the top heavy NFC, where there is currently 5 teams beginning the week with a single loss. The Rams have taken the next step up on offense behind Matthew Stafford as they are averaging just about 30ppg. The Rams will have a huge mismatch in their favor going up against the very weak Texan's secondary. I expect the Rams to surpass their season scoring average of 30ppg in this contest. Houston is down to David Mills at QB and he has yet to win an NFL game. The Houston offense has been bogged down by 10 turnovers in its last 4 games, and 2.5 turnovers per contest is unsustainable, and I expect that number to go down, and the points to go up. The Rams defense has only been about average on the season, and they may not be on the field a lot in the 2nd half of this one, enhancing the Texan's chances of scoring. Make the play on the over in this one.

North Carolina lost its unstoppable running game from a year ago, but this team is still a strong offense. The defense is playing reasonably well and you wonder why this team has lost to Florida St., Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech already. The Tar Heels are out-gaining opponents by 92 yards per game, but they have been guilty of 3 turnovers in 2 of their 3 losses. Notre Dame has a 6-1 record on the season yet they are posted as a dog at home to 4-3 North Carolina. The Irish have turned opponents over 16 times in 7 games and that is exactly what the Tra Heels have struggled with all season. The Heels could be letting down here as well. What was thought to be a Heisman QB, and a certain New Year's Bowl game, or playoff game has all been lost already. Meanwhile at 6-1 Notre Dame continues to improve and has everything to play for. Make the play on Notre Dame.

This is strictly a system and situational play. I have a situation on Oregon St. that is 103-46 -4 ATS. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Kansas St. Wildcats are 4-3 and this is a huge game at home. They need to win here and find 1 more win and this team will be Bowl eligible. TCU is 3-4 and in trouble, because they have games with Baylor, Oklahoma St., and Iowa St. ahead and this looks like their 2nd losing season in the last 3 years. This program has been slipping, and they are not the defensive team they used to be year after year. I think Kansas St. has more to play for right now and they are at home where they are always very competitive. Make the play on Kansas St.

The Colorado Buffalo's are now the worst offensive team in the nation gaining just an average of 238 yards per game. Colorado has gained fewer than 200 yards a game in their 5 losses on the season. Oregon has been pretty solid on both sides of the ball, and I really doubt that Colorado is going to contribute much here in this game, and almost all the points will have to come from Oregon. Outside of big scoring games vs Stony Brook, and winless Arizona Oregon has scored 24-35 points in every game. I think this number is too high and will make the play on the under.

It has been a long time since Rutgers was looking to be a .500 team after 8 games, and that opportunity is in front of them again. Greg Schiano made Rutgers relevant and he looks like he can do it again. Illinois played in a 9 overtime game last week. That had to be physically draining, as well as mentally and emotionally. Now they take on an equal team that is coming in fresh off a bye with 2 weeks to prepare. Illinois was a 24.5 point dog to Penn St. and won. I think this team is going to be mentally and emotionally absent this week. Illinois also has QB issues as Artur Sitkowski is out for the year and Peters has just never gotten it done at Illinois. Make the play on Rutgers.

The Detroit Lions are off to an 0-6 start to the season. These teams essentially traded QBs and Matthew Stafford has the Rams at 5-1. Jared Goff has struggled in Detroit where injuries have decimated WRs. I would suspect that the Rams will borrow from last week's playbook when they faced a similar Giants team lacking healthy WRs. They blitzed the Giants on about 30% of all plays. The Rams Aaron Donold should be in the backfield all afternoon, as the Lions have no one to block him. Cooper Kupp has a great match up as well and I would expect him to have another big game. Stafford's numbers are off the charts good so far and he should be highly effective this week. Another long after noon for the Lions is in store here, and for the many that don't like to lay huge points, since the start of the 2014 season a team favored by 14.5 or more points has gone 21-9 ATS. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The New England Patriots have lost 4 straight games at home. They certainly won't be taking the Jets lightly, as they are in dire need of a win. It is rare for a rookie QB to beat a Bill Belichick team as he owns a 23-6 SU record against them. The Jets are averaging just 13.4 points per game and an even worse 7 points per game on the road. Zach Wilson has yet to figure things out and has thrown 9 INTs already through 5 games. He has a passer rating of 62.9. The Pats have lost games by 2 points, 3 points, and in overtime, so with just a little luck they could have a winning record. The Jets are being out-gained by 107 yards per game. The Pats have beaten the Jets 12 straight times. New England is 49-23 ATS in their last 72 games after allowing 30 or more points. Make the play on New England.

The Tennessee Titans got a big win over the Buffalo Bills at home on Monday Night. They spent a lot of mental,physical, and emotional energy in that game. They had a big run by Henry for a 75 yard TD, but other than that they were limited to 287 total yards, while yielding 417. Ryan Tannehill is having a tough season. He has just 6 TD passes, after throwing 32 a year ago, and the offense is relying on Henry far to much. They hav 26 players on the injury report, of which 18 are on the IR. That is hard to overcome especially off a big emotional win and a short week. Kansas City is just 3-3 and a lot of that points at all the turnovers. The Chiefs have turned the ball over 14 times, and Mahomes has thrown 8 picks already after throwing just 8 all of last year. He has been too good and this is just variance, and I would expect going forward he will clean those up. Despite all that the Chiefs are scoring more at 31.2 points per game, despite the fewer possessions and Mahomes is completing 69% of his passes a career high, so there is evidence the interceptions will calm down and when they do the Chiefs are going on a run. It begins in Tennessee. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Green Bay Packers are 5-1 on the season, and that one loss has influenced the stats in a very hidden way. The Packers played a stinker in their opener vs the Saints which resulted in a 38-3 loss. The Packers turned the ball over 3 times, and did nothing on both sides of the ball. Since then they are averaging 28.2ppg and allowing 16.6ppg or winning by an average margin of 11.5ppg. The defense is allowing just 314 yards per game, and the offense has seen a worst performance of 323 yards. The Packers have turned the ball over just 2 times in the 5 wins. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is 3-11 ATS in all games, and enters with a passer rating of 82.1. He has already thrown 6 INT's. The Packers are in their wheel house when playing at home where Aaron Rodgers is 25-3 SU and 19-9 ATS including 21-9 ATS as a home favorite of -5.5 to -12.5. He has 75 TD passes in those games to just 5 INT's. Washington has allowed 34.3ppg in their last 3 and will have trouble staying in this game. Make the play on Green Bay.

Louisville is 3-3 and while they have a powerful offense, the defense has given all of it back. The Cardinals have scored 30 or more points in 5 straight games but they have lost 2 of them. They are allowing 34.4ppg to FBS opponents. Boston College has lost 2 straight, but both the losses came against strong defensive teams, and they have averaged over 40 points per game in their 4 wins. Louisville has NC State and Clemson on deck, and their level of focus here may not be their best. Boston College lost the turnover battle 5-0 in their last 2 games. Louisville has yielded close to 500 yards a game in their 5 contests vs FBS opponents, and it is tough trusting a team in the favorite role that plays absolutely no defense. The back door is wide open here, at the least. Louisville has not relished this role as they are 10-21 ATS as a conference home favorite in their last 31 coming off a loss, and that becomes 1-10 ATS if their opponent is off 2 straight losses. Make the play on Boston College.

Hard to back a team that is 0-5 SU vs FBS teams which is the case for California. What makes it even more ironic is Cal has had a turnover advantage on the season. Colorado has had some bad games at 2-4, but one of their losses was 10-7 vs Texas A&M. I think that says they have a higher ceiling in this game. Colorado is allowing fewer than 20ppg so getting better than a TD here with the much better defense in the game is an attractive proposition. Cal has no home field advantage as they are 0-10-1 ATS as a home favorite failing to cover by nearly 13ppg. Cal averages just 23ppg so getting enough here with a below average offense is not an easy task. Colorado has gone 20-10 ATS as a dog under coach Karl Dorrell. Make the play on Colorado.

This game in a lot of ways is important to both teams. Wake Forest returned 20 starters, and have a dynamic QB, and come into this game 6-0. The triple option is tough for a lot of teams, but when a team has 2 weeks to prepare for it, often they do a better job. Wake can move to 7-0 with Duke next week, and a pair of wins will have the Demon Deacons at 8-0 and heading to North Carolina for a huge game. Army started 4-0 but have lost consecutive games to Ball St., and Wisconsin. Their game last week was very physical, and it may show in this game. This is a highly motivated spot for Wake to remain unbeaten, and they have beaten Army 9 of the last 11 meetings. Army has managed just 16.5ppg against Wake, so they have done a very solid job with the option, with lesser teams. I think Wake is the odds on favorite to win the ACC right now. Army has 4 wins all coming vs bad teams that have combined to go 7-19. I like Wake Forest in this one.

Northwestern had a big season a year ago, but this is not yet the type of program that can lose a lot of quality players and reload. Northwestern returned as one of the least experienced teams in the country, with just 4 starters on both sides of the ball. The best team the Wildcats have seen this season is Nebraska who beat them 56-7. Michigan is 6-0 and is a top contender for making the playoffs. The Wolverines have one of the top offenses in NCAA Football, and the defense is also rock solid. I think Michigan is going to run away with this one and cover rather easily. Make the play on Michigan.

Things couldn't be going better for the Cincinnati Bearcats. They are ranked #2 in the country and have scored 50+ points in 2 straight games. The Navy is just the opposite as things could hardly get worse. This game looks like a complete blowout, but if history has anything to say about it, then these numbers will get your attention. Anytime a military team is getting 20 or more points they are hard to cover against. The Army, Navy, and Air Force all run the triple-option which consumes clock. It makes it hard to take down big numbers. A military team getting 20 or more have logged an 81-37-4 ATS mark. That is long term, and powerful. Make the play on Navy.

The Arizona Cardinals are the only unbeaten team in the NFL at 5-0. Everything has gone well for the Cardinals to this point.The Cleveland Browns are 3-2 and most will see the 2 big offenses they played destroyed their defense. The fact is they out-gained both those teams, and gave up late leads or they could also be looking at 5-0. The Browns are out-gaining their opponents by 119 yards per game and have a lethal running game. That running game is going to matter this week as game time winds are projected to gust upward of 20 MPH. That is going to have some impact on the passing game here, and the Browns have an advantage in this type of game. The Brown's have the better team from the line of scrimmage and have gone for 150+ yards on the ground in every game, and in a situation where the ground game matters more than usual, and the fact that the Browns are off a loss, and playing an unbeaten team at home, the best of what they have to offer will be on display here. Make the play on Cleveland, my game of the month.

The Baltimore Ravens are known to like to put the ball on the ground especially with Lamar Jackson at QB. The running game should be met with little resistance, as the Chargers run stop unit is among the worst in the league. The usually reliable Baltimore defense is not up to standard, as it is allowing 6.5 yards per play and close to 400 yards a game. Justin Hebert has taken a very strong rookie season, and elevated it as he is beating last year's numbers to this point of the season. Things haven't gotten much better as they allowed over 500 yards last week to the Colts. This game should see a lot of scoring opportunities, make the play on the over.

The Green Bay Packers season has been somewhat strange. They were dominated by New Orleans in week 1, but have since gone out and won 4 straight. The Packers have been out-scored on the season by their opponents, and overall they are just an average team from the line of scrimmage. They are ultra dependent on Davonte Adams who generated over 60% of the receiving yards last week vs the Bengals as well as 50% of the first downs. The Bears offense has been quite challenging, but they may be catching Green By at the right time. The Packers are off a road overtime win in Cincinnati, and take to the road again. The Packers are pretty banged up defensively, and they can't rely on Davonte Adams for everything they do offensively especially against a strong Bear defense. Too many points, make the play on Chicago.

The Cincinnati Bengals missed so many opportunities to beat the Green Bay Packers last week and move to 4-1. They head to Detroit off that loss and should have their focus on after a tough loss. The Lions are 0-5 on the season and should be. The Lion's scoring margin is -8 points per game on the season. Joe Burrow is making a jump in Cincinnati as he is completing 71.7% of his passes at 8.8 yards per attempt. The Lions are having injury issues at WR and it will hamper an already poor Lion's offense. I think the match up here for Cincinnati is quite favorable, and I also believe we have some line value here. Make the play on Cincinnati.

Back to London we go as the Miami Dolphins take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. It looks like a free play for the Dolphins as the Jag's are now 0-5 on the season, as well as 1-20 since the start of last season. Those numbers are certainly influencing the line here. The Jags however are the better team from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. There is a penalty being paid here for taking Mimi, as who wants a 1-20 team getting just a FG? This line is considerably off and I actually think it should be Jacksonville -3 here. I'm taking Jacksonville in this one.

The UTEP Miners are off to a sizzling 5-1 start to the season. While that sounds like a bad program turning the corner, I see a whole different picture. This team has played a schedule that ranks far below the 130 FBS teams there are, I would put them at 175 or so considering FCS teams. The 5 wins have come against Bethune Cookman, New Mexico St., New Mexico, Southern Miss, and Old Dominion. Those 5 teams are a combined -17 vs FBS teams, and the lone win has occurred because 2 of the teams played each other. UTEP despite what I consider the weakest schedule in the country, has played even at the line of scrimmage. Louisiana Tech has a 1 point loss at Miss St., a 2 point loss vs SMU, and a 7 point loss at NC State. They generated 440 yards of offense per game in those 3 losses to upper tier teams. The schedule differential is vast in this one, and it lends itself to a line that is clearly not enough. The 5 UTEP wins are vs an average opponent that ranks at the bottom of the FBS. I like Louisiana Tech in this one.

The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 6-0 start, but this team doesn't look nearly as explosive as recent editions. For the first time in many years Oklahoma has an average passing game that generates 7.9 yards per attempt vs a schedule of teams allowing 8.0 to an average team. The Sooners are better suited for running the ball. TCU is not the defensive team they have trended as for many years. This is a team that has allowed 31 or more points in 4 straight games, and the Sooners should have no trouble getting to 30 here. TCU however has also scored 34 points or more in its last 4 games, so I think they have enough offense to stay inside a rather lofty number here. Make the play on TCU.

The sense of urgency has become real for Alabama after a surprise loss to Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide knows another loss puts any playoff opportunity in immediate jeopardy, and Nick Saban teams are now 16-2 SU following a loss. The Tide has won by an average of 25 points per game in its last 5 off a loss, so expect a true sense of urgency in this one. Saban has certainly figured out the Mike Leach offense, as they buried Miss St. last year 41-0. It was the only time a Mike Leach team has ever been shutout. Alabama off a loss has been downgraded, while Miss St. winning last week gave them an upgrade. Alabama was a -19 point favorite vs A&M and Miss St. was +7. Add those two games together and the difference is 26 points. That shows a one week bias, and the adjustment is absurd. Alabama beat A&M at the line of scrimmage 522-379. That translates into a double-digit win. Over the last 5 seasons a home dog of 10.5 to 21 points is 14-42 ATS off a win vs a conference rival and playing a conference rival. Whatever this Alabama team has in its arsenal this season will be on display Saturday. Make the play on Alabama.

The Vanderbilt football program has struggled over many years trying to keep up with the schools in the SEC. They have had little success in doing so and this year they may be worse than the poor teams they have put on the field in many years. This is a team that managed just 3 points against E. Tennessee St., and has been shutout twice on top of that. They have scored 80 points in 6 games on the season. Their offense is generating -2.40 yards per play fewer than what their defense allows. South Carolina is in distress as well. The Gamecocks are averaging just 17.2 points per game vs FBS teams, and the offense has been average, while the defense is 0.5 yards better than the schedule of offenses they have faced. I think South Carolina will be capped at 30 in this game and they have already held 4 teams to 17 points or fewer on the season, and Vanderbilt is below those teams offensively. I look for this game to play under the total.

The Texas A&M Aggies knocked off previously unbeaten Alabama last week who was also the #1 team in the nation. That sets up a huge letdown spot for the Aggies here, who are 4-2 and not blowing teams out. The Aggies have faced 4 FBS teams and have been out-scored by them 91=83. They have 2 wins both by 3 points. Missouri is 0-6 ATS coming into this game, so they are not drawing much attention, but they certainly provide value here. The Tigers are now 0-9 ATS going back to last year, and if there is one of those games that "stinks" this week, this is the one as the Tigers are allowing 38 points and 500 yards on the season. Not a good sign when a team beats a Saban coached team as a dog and turns around to be a favorite in their next game as they are 6-9 ATS, including 0-5 ATS if they scored 35 points or more in that win. This one looks ugly. Make the play on Missouri.

The winner of this game will move to 4-1 on the season, so it is certainly a big game for both teams. The Chargers flexed their muscles Monday Night and dominated Las Vegas on both sides of the line of scrimmage in an easy 28-14 win. There are still concerns here. The Chargers took one gift wrapped from the Chiefs 30-24. The Chiefs turned the ball over 4 times but still managed 437 yards, and lost by just 6. Dallas went over 400 yards as well, and Cleveland has a lot of offensive weapons. The Browns have improved greatly on defense and has held its last 2 opponents to 6 and 7 points. It has enabled them to just pound the rock. The Chargers may be 3-1 but they are losing the line of scrimmage and the Cleveland running game will take charge of a run-stop unit that is among the worst in the league. The records are the same, but Cleveland is considerably better, and has the match up edges.Make the play on Cleveland.

The Tennessee Titans are 2-2 and that is pretty much where they belong. The same can be said for Jacksonville at 0-4 off a 1-15 season a year ago. Trevor Lawrence has not been good, in fact he has been awful. He enters with 5 TDs and 7 INTs. That equates to a passer rating of 66.1. His 6.1 passing yards per attempt is really poor. While the offense has been awful, the pass defense has been horrific allowing 9.4 yards per attempt. This is where Ryan Tannehill comes into play. Tannehill has not been the same this season, and this might be just what the doctor ordered. He is certainly capable and playing the worst secondary in the NFL might just get him back on track. Jacksonville has given up at least 23 points every game and has averaged just 18.5. Make the play on Tennessee.

Jalen Hurts makes a difference in the Philadelphia offense. His ability to scramble since he took over duties as the Eagles starting QB in week 14 last year shows him ranked 11th in rushing yards in the league. Hurts has a penchant for throwing screen passes, and with Shaq Thompson out for the Panthers, there should be a lot of success to be had in exploiting that area. Sam Darnold has played well this season for Carolina, but the Eagles pass defense, and ability to get pressure, is likely going to make Darnold's numbers look more like they did with the Jets, and success will be at a premium.With RB Christian McCaffrey dealing with a hamstring issue, I expect that if he plays he won't be as effective as usual.  This is typically not a good situation for any team as 3-1 teams that lost their first game of the season in their last game cover just 38.5% of the time in their next game. Also, any team surrendering 40 or more points in 2 straight weeks have gone 17-7 ATS when facing a winning team. Make the play on Philadelphia.

Washington will once again go with QB Taylor Heinicke. Probably the best testiment to the Washington offensive line was the fact that Heinicke took 3 seconds on average to unload the ball, and did not get sacked a single time. Washington runs the ball at a top 10 rate, but the Saints own the 2nd best run stop unit in the NFL so the heart of the Washington offense is going into a very unfavorable match up. Winston is known for holding the ball too long, and will be with out 2 pieces in his offensive line, most notable starting center Erik McCoy. I like this game to play under the total.

The match up here should provide a lot more scoring opportunities than the posted total might otherwise indicate. The Atlanta offense has allowed less time for Matt Ryan to et rid of the ball, and that has led to running backs featured in the passing game, as Ryan needs to get the ball out quickly. The Falcons target running backs at the 2nd highest rate in the league and the Jets allow the 2nd most receiving yards to running backs in the league. That sets up the Atlanta offense for success in this contest. Jamison Crowder lifted the Jets offense last week in his first game. He was targeted 9 times, and has a favorable match up here vs Atlanta. This game will be played in London under very good scoring conditions. I think these match ups favor a game with more scoring than expected. Make the play over the total.

The Michigan Wolverines are finally achieving what the roster looks like this year. The Wolverines are clicking in all facets of the game, with an offense that is elite, and a defense that is elite. Add to that the fact that they have turned the ball over just 1 time all season, and have the 2nd best special teams in the country, and they get my #4 ranking. Nebraska has already lost 3 times to teams far below Michigan. The stats show an average of 600 yards a game vs Fordham, Northwestern, and Buffalo, which skews realistic numbers. Nebraska is also #128 in special teams and Michigan excels in that area, offering some hidden value. Michigan has the edge here on all levels, and I will make the play on Michigan.

The Wyoming Cowboys are off to a terrific 4-0 start to the season. They almost lost for the first time last time on the field when they needed to rally their way to a 24-22 win. The Cowboy's offense is below average in both the running and passing game, and it is likely they fare worse in this one because the Air Force runs the ball almost all the time, and will limit the number of plays in this game with a moving clock. Wyoming's best attribute is defending the pass, which unfortunately for them is not going to come into play very often here. Air Force has been running the ball for years out of the triple-option, and may have their best running game ever. The Falcons have rushed for over 400 yards in 3 straight games. When a team is playing at home and has rushed for 300 or more yards in 3 straight games they are 83-62-2 ATS, with better subsets. I think Wyoming is a "false" 4-0, and they will be exposed in this one in a big way. Make the play on Air Force.

I am buying in on the hype around the Beavers. They will take to the Pac-12 road to take on 2-3 Washington St. The beavers are 4-1 and have won and covered 4 straight, and own big wins vs Washington, and USC. Washington St. has little to show on offense as the Cougars are averaging 17.8 points per game vs FBS competition and have turned the ball over 9 times in its last 3 games. Oregon St. has a well above average offense that steadily improves each week, and the defense is now a tick above average. This Oregon St. team is a player in the Pac-12, and a win at Washington St. will continue building the resume. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Bowling Green Falcons may be the biggest surprise of the year so far. They are now the only perfect ATS team in the country at 5-0. The bandwagon is getting full as bettors flock toward a 5-0 ATS team and has now raised the bar of expectations. This game opened at Bowling Green -12 and is now as high as -15. The Falcons were a pick-'em against Murray St. at home just 3 weeks ago, and they are now over-valued. Think about it. The Falcons average fewer than 15 points a game vs their 4 FBS opponents and have topped out at 20 in the 4 games. Akron had lopsided games vs Auburn and Ohio St. that has their stats skewed some. Just can't play Bowling Green laying more than they average. Make the play on Akron.