It wasn't expected that the Miami Hurricanes would enter this game as the perfect team, and higher ranked team. Iy was generally considered that Florida St, with all 11 offensive starters returning and 6 defensive starters, that they were among the elite teams in NCAAF this season. A 3-2 start has left the noles with no path to the National Championship Game. The schedule has been tough, no doubt, and the Noles have shown plenty of offense, but the usually defensive reliable team has seen the stop unit allowing over 40ppg. They have allowed 233 yards rushing on average in their last 3, and over 500 yards a game. The offense has been very good, but the defense has been average at best, and allowing 9.4 yards per pass attempt. The Hurricanes offense is even more elite than Florida St. generating 7ypc on the ground, and 9.8 in the air per pass attempt, to teams allowing just 7.1. The Hurricanes are not perfect just because of the offense, they allow just 3.6 yards per play. Florida St. will do better than that, but the problem is the Miami offense has a much higher ceiling in this game, and at home with a perfect season going, against a bitter rival, should result in a big effort, and bigger win. Make the play on Miami.

It seems like Bill Snyder has been at Kansas St. forever, and he pretty much has, except for a temporary hiatus from 2006-08. He took over a bad program in 1989, and after that first year he has been the top coach ATS at 162-107-4 ATS, with his team's covering a ridiculous 60.2% of the time. he doesn't take too kindly to losing, and when his Cats are off a loss, they come out prepared in their next game at home, as they are 35-10 ATS following a setback, including 27-7 ATS if it was a road loss. Those are certainly numbers I would avoid, and with the best defense in the country, he will have his team up for the challenge of the high octane Texas Tech offense. Kansas St. is 43-18 ATS in their last 61 conference games, including 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of -6.5 or more. Texas Tech is allowing 41ppg in their last 24 road conference games. (45.2ppg in their last 8). When Texas Tech has allowed more than 28 points on the road, and they are less than a 10 point under dog, they are 22-59 ATS! (9-23 ATS lately). Make the play on Kansas St.

Umass and Old Dominion are both new to the FBS. Umass has found little success since their entry as they carry a 9-61 SU mark into this game, of which 4-37 SU is representative of the struggles they have faced on the road, where they have lost by an average of 21 points per contest. They have had an unusual schedule this season and are coming off 4 straight home games. Umass is also 0-9 SU as a road dog off a home game since joining the FBS. Old Dominion has gotten their legs under themselves, and is 11-9 SU in their last 20 since joining the FBS. Before their last 2 games they had held just 1 FBS team to 20 points or less (a woeful Eastern Michigan team), but have done so in each of their last 2. This is a team that has done very well at home as a favorite where they are 8-1 SU. Umass fits an ugly 21-52 ATS situation based in part on allowing 30+ points in 2 straight games, while Old Dominion applies to a long term momentum situation that ia 421-294 ATS. Make the play on Old Dominion.

Many wondered about this Ohio St. team this season, as they returned just 3 starters on offense, as well as just 3 on defense. Worry no more, the Buckeyes are as good as ever, and that is the product of having top level recruiting classes every year. Urban Meyer is 158-27 SU as a coach, and has won at 4 different schools and the Buckeyes are 54-4 SU since his arrival on campus, and his sweet spot has been as a -24 to -31 home favorite where he is 6-0 ATS here, winning by 44 points per game. Overall Meyer's teams are 17-4 ATS as a favorite from -24 to -31. Indiana is off a huge win over Michigan St., but the Spartans are not the same team they have been over the past few years. Indiana has shown to have an elite passing attack, but they are going against the best pass defense in the country, and I think they are going to turn the ball over, and find it hard moving the chains here. Indiana has not beaten Ohio St. since 1988 (0-22-1). Indiana fits a horrible 45-103 ATS situation, and a different 2-23 ATS situation. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes apply to a 91-45 ATS situation. Make the play on Ohio St.

The North Carolina Tar Heels won a huge game last week, upsetting Florida St. 37-35, in a shootout thriller. They could be a bit flat when they take on a vastly improved Virginia Tech Hokies teams in this one. Justin Fuente has infused the Hokie offense, that he brought with him from Memphis, and defensively, the Hokies have been mighty stingy against the pass. They had a very misleading loss to Tennessee, a game they led 14-0, but 5 fumbles turned the game completely around. Tennessee recovered 2 of the fumbles inside the Hokies 6 yard line, and scored TD's in 1 play, and scored a FG on another, resulting in 17 points, and V Tech simply could not recover. The Hokies out-gained the Vols 400-330, but in addition to 5 fumbles they were penalized 101 yards. They held Joshua Dobbs to 91 yards passing, and the V Tech pass defense has been great all season, and should be able to at least make life difficult for the Carolina passing attack. Offensively the Hokies have a bigger edge, and should be able to score enough here to possibly win the game outright. Virginia Tech applies to a 65-20 ATS situation here, and I like them to possibly win the game. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Army suffered a tough 23-20 loss their last time out vs a bad Buffalo team. They dominated the stats, but didn't get the job done, but the Black Knights are still 3-1 and certainly look like a much better team here than we have seen out of West Point in well over a decade. They have out-gained every opponent they have faced by 180ypg, and usually limit the number of plays run in a game, because they run the triple option, and the clock is moving with almost every play when they have the ball. They have averaged +22 plays a game on the season. Duke has been out-gained in 3 of their 4 games, have a big huge win over Notre Dame, so many will question the line here. Army teams when better than .500 and at least 5 weeks into the season, are 8-3 ATS facing a power conference team. Duke also beat Army 44-3 at West Point last year, so many will question if things have changed that much? QB Daniel Jones has been quite erratic for Duke with 6 TD's to 8 INT's on the season, and leading RB Jela Duncan, the only Duke runner at 4ypc or better, is questionable. Army fits a situation that is 27-4 ATS for this one as well. Make the play on Army.

The Tennessee Vols, are at the least opportunistic,resilient, or most likely, lucky to come into this game unbeaten. Once again for the third straight season, Texas A&M is off to the races with a 5-0 start. They don't seem to learn with an easy early schedule, and the last 2 years after starting 10-0, they finished 6-10 SU and 3-13 ATS. The 2014 season saw them at 5-0 scoring 51.5ppg, allowing 15ppg. They then saw those numbers go to 25.2ppg allowing 36.2ppg. Last year their 5-0 start saw them at 39.2ppg allowing 21ppg, and finished 20.6ppg allowing 22.6ppg. Here we go again at 5-0. Tennessee has grown up. All 4 of their losses a year ago came when leading in the 4th quarter, and all their wins this year have come after trailing by 10 or more. A&M has been here before, and melted, Tennessee was last 5-0 the year they won a National Championship. Make the play on Tennessee.

The Minnesota Vikings are not only building a strong record at 3-0, but a strong resume to go along with it. They have already beaten Green Bay, and last week took down Carolina on the road. This all in spite of the fact they lost Adrien Peterson, and QB Teddy Bridgewater. Sam Bradford has had a pair of solid games for Minnesota, but it is not the Vikings offense that has them 3-0, it is the defense. The Vikings offense in terms of points is about as bad as it gets. Through 3 games they have produced just 3 TD's all in the air. The defense has scored 2 TD's and contributed a safety, and they have a punt return TD. The offense also has produced 7 FG's. Scoring 1 TD a week puts tremendous pressure on the defense, which can't score every week. The Giants are off their first loss at home to Washington. Eli Manning, and the Giants offense have some skilled weapons on the outside, but do not run the ball very well. The Giant defense has been a team strength, and while it doesn't get the credit, it has played better from the line of scrimmage than the Viking's defense. The Giants also have a better offense. This game fits a very strong turnover situation, one that has gone 90-54 ATS, and the Giants fit in a subset of that which is 40-9-2 ATS. Make the play on NY.

The San Francisco 49ers opened the season with a shutout win, and just when you may have thought the Niner defense was back, they go and allow 83 points in their next 2 games. It has certainly made this total appear very achievable, and has drawn the attention of bettors, who love to bet over the total. That being said, the total has actually dropped half a point from the opener. This presents a very NFL worthy contrarian play. It may not be the Niner defense that has problems here, but the offense is brutally bad. Blaine Gabbert in his career is 5-14 O/U at home, generating just 14.2ppg. His 68.6 passer rating on the season says the Niners points are going to trend down, not up. perhaps the biggest factor here expresses the history of such contrarian situations. Home teams that have allowed 35 or more points in each of their last 2 games, with the total points allowed in the 2 games topping 80, and playing to a total from 35 to 48.5, and their opponents last opponent scored more than 10 points, are 1-25 O/U since 1980. The last 20 in this situation have all fallen shy of the total by an average of 12.25ppg. Lots of value, on an NFL worthy contrarian situation. Make the play on the under.

The Washington Redskins are off a huge win last week against the NY Giants on the road 29-27. What wasn't so pretty about that win was they gave up 27 points, and that marks 3 straight games this season they have done so, as the defense continues to struggle. No team has failed to reach 100 rushing yards or 275 passing yards against them yet this season, making this line, and the circumstances surrounding it very vulnerable. Josh McCown, and Robert Griffin are already out for the Browns, who will start Cody Kessler again this week. Kessler produced over 400 yards of offense, and his passer rating is better than the previous two to start for Cleveland this year. Terrelle Pryor has become an instant target for Kessler, and Pryor has taken snaps, and running and throwing. The Cleveland offense has become somewhat unique, and a more difficult defend than in the recent past. Teams that have allowed 27 points or more in 2 consecutive games, and are at home facing a team off a 6 point or less loss are a brutal 39-82 ATS, and if they won their last one, they are 0-14 ATS. Make the play on Cleveland.

Arizona is coming off a physical and emotional contest vs Washington. The game left the Cats physically battered and have no less than 7 players on the injury report from that game. Perhaps none more important than RB Nick Wilson and his 6 yards a carry and 3 TD's. The Arizona run game may be impacted if Wilson can't go or is not 100%, and the run defense of UCLA has been the team's biggest asset, so the match up is favorable here. UCLA has yet to cover a game this season, but teams 0-4 ATS and playing as a home favorite of 10 or less points are 12-5 ATS, and 9-3 ATS vs a team .500 or less. This is a huge game with both teams at 2-2. Make the play on UCLA.

Utah is off to a 4-0 start, and looking back they had ample trouble moving into the Pac-12 Conference back in 2011, as they were 9-18 SU in their first 3 years. They have since recruited competitively, and have gone 12-7 SU since. The Utes do it as good as anyone on defense, as they have limited their first 4 opponents to 15.8ppg. That is in stark contrast to California who allows 42.5ppg, and 47ppg against the 2 power-5 conference teams they have faced. The Cal offense is not as good as the numbers say it is as they have generated 8.3 yards per play, vs opponents that average allowing 8. The Utes held Cal to 24 points a year ago, and that was against a QB that is now in the NFL. Conference road teams with momentum, having covered 2 straight games, and are playing a toss up game on the road, -3 to +3, are 102-55-4 ATS since 2010. That is 81-46-3 ATS if it is a conference game. Make the play on Utah.

Everyone considered the Florida St. Seminoles the challenger of Alabama for the National Championship. The Noles brought just about everyone back from a year ago, but were blindsided by upstart Louisville, who simply has devastated all comers so far this season. All is not lost, and many thought they might stumble last game vs S. Florida, feeling sorry for themselves, but the opposite happened, they went out and got right back in the thick of things. They have to win out until they get Clemson at home on October 29, and that game will likely determine their post-season fate. Carolina is not as good as they were last season despite the 3-1 start, and the loss to Georgia looms larger, as the Bull Dogs have not been as good as advertised. They have been just above average offensively in yards per play, and about average defensively. The Noles are elite offensively, can run and throw, and even with the Louisville debacle figured in, the defense has been slightly better than average. I see a big Seminole win at home, and they are also backed by a 37-6 ATS angle for this one. Make the play on Florida St.

This will be the first of many big games in the competitive Big-10 Conference this season as a pair of unbeatens face off in Ann Arbor. Wisconsin is the surprise here as they opened the season with a big win vs LSU, but was it as big as it looks? Les Miles is on the hot seat in Baton Rouge, as LSU fell for the 2nd time this season last week, at Auburn. The Badgers are very ordinary on offense, and depend on a strong defense to stay in games. The defense will be tested by a balanced and elite Michigan offense, that is also elite on defense. The Wolverines will have the best team on the field be it on offense, or defense. The Wolverines have scored 45+ points in all 4 games, and have a defense capable of limiting Wisconsin to very few points, something important for laying 10+ points. This group of Badgers has never been to Ann Arbor, as the last time Wisconsin played here, was 2010, and the badgers have avaregd just 14.2ppg here in their last 12 trips, and will be hard pressed to top that here. Michigan fits a conference situation that is 104-53 ATS. Lay the points and play on Michigan.

The Georgia Tech Yellow jackets run the triple option, and it is an offense designed to negate the advantage of an opposing defense. They have been highly successful, but this season it appears that they are not up to speed with past years. They did manage to run all over Mercer, but that was a decided mismatch. There games vs Vanderbilt, Clemson, and Boston College were far more challenging. tech in those 3 games ran for just 3.97 yards per carry. This is a team that has averaged 5 to 6 yards a carry in many of the seasons under Paul Johnson. meanwhile, the Miami defense has squashed the run in their 3 games allowing 1.57 yards per carry. What is even more important than that, they faced the triple option last week vs Appalachian St. holding them to 2.6 yards per carry. teams that face the triple option for the 2nd time in consecutive weeks are 15-7 ATS, and hold the option to 4.2 yards per carry. That will not cut it for Georgia Tech, especially against a Miami offense generating over 50ppg. Make the play on Miami.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense has been so good for so long, it is expected they play high scoring games. The Pack put up a stunning 38.2ppg at home in 2014, but without Jordy Nelson (or so most thought), those numbers eroded to 23.2ppg. Unless your telling me Jordy Nelson is worth 15ppg, then something else is wrong. The Pack was 1-7 O/U at home a year ago. I'll tell you what is wrong. Aaron Rodgers has suddenly lost his mojo. Last year, it wasn't just Nelson being out, he so many times missed passes your used to seeing him convert with his eyes closed. This year, it has been worse. The 6.1 yards per attempt a year ago is down to 5.4 yards per attempt, Nelson included. Sunday night he over threw at least 3 times, and on a little dink pass to Lacey, he threw it into the ground. No one is saying anything, because after all, he is Aaron Rodgers, but is he anymore? The last 18 games says he is not, the posted total says he is. Detroit broke a 23 game losing streak at Lambeau last year, holding the sputtering Green Bay offense to just 3 points through 3 quarters in an 18-16 win. Most will consider Rodgers having had a great day, 35-61 for 333 yards and a pair of TD's, but look closer, just 5.46 yards per attempt. Those are bottom of the league numbers. This game fits a situation that is based in part by division road dogs in a scenario that has been an electric under producer at 117-206-2 O/U 36.2% over, so the under has been 63.8% on 325 games, close tyo a z-score of 5! A situation with nearly a 5 z-score on 325 games is off the charts! Make the play on the under.

The Minnesota offense has been very shaky all season, and it may about to get worse. The Vikings will likely be without star RB Adrien Peterson, injured vs Green Bay last game. QB Teddy Bridgewater is done for the season, so enter Sam Bradford. Bradford managed the game well vs Green Bay at home, but with that being said, the Vikings offense is awful. They won vs Green Bay because they had a +2 turnover margin, were at home, and were inspired playing at a new stadium. They were out-gained by lowly Tennessee in week 1, and out-scored by the Titans offense, but a +3 in net turnovers made the difference again, as the defense led to 14 points. Carolina has an elite offense one that has out-gained opposing defenses that allow 5.1 yards a play, to their 6.1 yards a play output against them. The Carolina defense has been a lot more average this season, but should be good at home vs a very bad offense. The Panthers made 4 turnovers vs SF and still generated 46 points. Minnesota is 4-16 ATS following a home dog win, and the NFL since 1989 has a 16-68 ATS mark if a team is off a home dog division win, is better than .500, as long as they are not facing a win less opponent. Newton has a 105.6 career passer rating vs Minnesota with 7 TD's and 1 INT, and Bradford has struggled in his career vs elite teams, at 1-6 and a passer rating of 78.1. The Vikings committed over 12 penalties in their last game, and such teams are 133-177 ATS in their next game covering 42.9%. Teams off a game where they had 4 or more TD passes, are 183-150 ATS in their next game 55%. Make the play on Carolina.

This should be an interesting battle, especially if you remember Josh Norman going at it with O'Dell Beckham last year, when Norman was in Carolina. Norman severely got in Beckham's head, as Carolina was up 35-7. and Beckham caught his first ball with 5:19 left in the third. Carolina, and Norman slacked off, and the Giants eventually caught Carolina, but ended up with the loss. Coach Gruden has stated he may line up Norman across from Beckham on every down. The Giants offense is generating just 5.9 yards a play to defenses that have allowed 6.6, but the defense is allowing just 4.7 to teams averaging 5.9. Washington has been a half yard better than their opponents on offense, but -0.9 yards worse per play on defense. What I see is a good Washington offense, not good enough to overcome an even better NY defense, and a sub par NY offense, with their top weapon being taken away, not good enough to overcome the poor Washington defense. There is a bigger factor here historically as division games bring out defensive intensity, and division home favorites are 883-960-32 O/U since 1989, 52.1% under. When the total is greater than 38 it goes to 571-684-21 O/U or 54.5% under, and in fact when the total is above average, at 45 or more it goes to 105-150-1 O/U, or 58.8% to the under. I have a tremendous situation, one of my top total situations, applicable here which is 39-107-2 O/U or 73.3% to the under and an off the charts z-score of 5.59! Moreover, Eli Manning is 8-15 O/U for his career vs Washington, completing just 58.2% of his passes, with the games averaging less than 40 points. Kirk Cousins owns a career passer rating of 60.5 vs the G-men, and just 15ppg, and the 4 games have seen the G-men pick him off 8 times. Not a lot of love for the offenses here, to a high total. Make the play on the under.

The Washington Huskies strung together 24 straight seasons of .500 or better, but that came crashing down hard in 2004, when they finished a woeful 1-11. That wasn't even rock bottom for this team, as they continued to have a losing record 6 straight seasons, and rock bottom came in 2008 when they were a hapless 0-12. They have since gotten their respectability back, and have had winning seasons in each of their last 6 campaigns. This year could be special, as UW is off to a 3-0 start, and ranked #9 in the nation, and rightfully so, and could be even better than the ranking. Washington allowed just 18ppg a year ago, and the defense has the potential to be even better this season, and the offense that averaged 30ppg a year ago, is going to be much better with the emergence of QB Jake Browning, now a sophomore. Browning had 16 TD a year ago last year to 10 picks, but is 12 TD's 1 INT to start 2016. Arizona is a very crippled team right now, and Has a QB, and top RB who both may miss Saturday, or hampered at the least. They also have 3 questionable LB's for the game, as well as a CB, so the back 7 may be depleted and UW and Browning are generating 10.1 yards per pass attempt and should rule the roost here. Arizona was blistered by Grambling for 402 yards in the air, when they were healthy. A conference road favorite that is 3-0, cover 55% of the time. Road favorites that have won their last 3 games by 17 or more points also cover 55% of the time. Just don't see Arizona keeping up here, with a lack of depth, and missing or hampered key pieces on the offense. Make the play on Washington.

I picked army to top their season win total futures, and they are well on their way to doing so early. The Black Knights have their best team in 20 years, and have opened at 3-0. Many will look at their road woes, which were ugly until recently and find a way to play against them. Army was 0-20 SU on the road, and 1-19 ATS. They have since been 3-4 SU on the road, and 6-1 ATS. They have played a decent schedule, one that is on or above their level, and have out-gained Temple, UTEP, and Rice by 1358-809. The Cadets were 1-24 SU on the road, with the lone win against long term worst FBS team, E. Michigan, how things have changed. They have 5 players who have rushed for 120 or more yards on the season, led by Andy Davidson 62-334, only a sophomore. They have 2 competent QB's to run the option. The offense ranks 46th in the country, and the defense #17. Buffalo has had just 2 winning years in their FBS history, and this will not be the 3rd. They lost to Albany at home, a team they beat last year 51-14, and Nevada on the road 38-14, a team they lost by 3 to a year ago. Their 2 QB's have gone 24-57, completing just 42.1%, against poor competition. Nevada ran all over them a week ago, and Army will do the same. Buffalo's lack of a passing game, makes them an even worse team, playing from behind. Teams that allowed 5.5 yards a carry in their last game, playing as a home dog, against a team that out-rushed their last 3 opponents by 100 yards or more are 5-23 ATS. If you extend that to facing an opponent that out-rushed their last 3 opponents by 150 or more yards it becomes 0-10 ATS, failing to cover by 11.50ppg. Home dogs that allowed 37 or more points in their last game, and facing an opponent that led by 14 or more points at the half in their last 2 games and are .500 or less, are 10-30 ATS.Army has started 3-0 just 2 times in the last 36 years, and when they did they went to 4-0 winning by 34.5ppg. This is a different Army team, make the play on Army.

Central Florida hit rock bottom a year ago finishing at 0-12. They had a previous encounter with the "doughnut" coming up empty in 2004 at 0-11. They rebounded from that performance to generate 8 wins in 2005, and this team has a chance to do the same. The record is just 1-2, but a pair of losses in the Big-10, hardly measure what to expect going forward, and the fact is they took Maryland to overtime, out-gaining the Terps by nearly 100 yards, despite 4 fewer possessions as they had a -4 turnover margin in that game. FIU was drubbed by that same Maryland team 41-14, and this team has also lost to Umass. The numbers are ugly for both teams offensively, but defensively Central Florida is light years ahead, and against a poor defense, the mediocre offense of the Knights should find some daylight. This is a bigger mismatch than it looks thanks to the fact that C. Florida is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games. Things have changed, but the perception has yet to catch up. Make the play on Central Florida.

I had this game marked as potentially being a very large play at the beginning of the season, and what I have seen so far, has not changed my mind, but in fact enhanced it. Vanderbilt has struggled to move the football, and outside of a game vs Middle Tennessee at home, the numbers are as ugly as ever with just 7 points vs Georgia Tech and 13 vs SC. This is a team that finished 124th in scoring a year ago, at just 15.2ppg, and two years ago, not much better at 17.2ppg. I don't see the needle moving much. The biggest difference is on defense, where the Dores were very stingy a year ago, but through 3 games they have been significantly below average, both against the run, and the pass. W, Kentucky will exploit a weaker than average secondary, with a passing attack that remains elite, and generates 10.2 yards per play, vs opponents that have averaged allowing 8.2. Vandy has big issues throwing the ball, where they complete just 52.6% of their passes at an ugly 4.6 yards per attempt, and 125 yards per game. W. Kentucky's average pass defense should have no issues containing the meager Vanderbilt airless offense. That means Vandy is going to have to find success on the ground, but even their they are below average, and the Hilltoppers excel stopping the run, allowing 2.9 yards per rush vs teams averaging 4.2. Needless to say, the Dores are going nowhere in this contest, while W. Kentucky should have a big game in the air, especially with their fast paced offense, and 345 yard average in the air per game. They could top that in this one. This one goes as my NCAAF September Game of the Month. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

When you just take a glimpse of the names of these schools, and see an ACC team at home vs a MAC Conference school, and see the MAC Conference school as a favorite, on the road, it is hard not to look the way of Virginia. The devil is in the details however, and the right team is favored, but not by enough. The difference is a balanced C. Michigan attack led by 5th year senior Cooper Rush. Rush has started at QB all 4 years, has thrown for over 10,000 yards, and 78 TD's. He is averaging 9.4 yards an attempt on the season, and his 11 TD passes have gone to 6 different receivers. Virginia gave up 8.3 yards per pass attempt vs Oregon, and 8.1 to Richmond. They are going to be in trouble in this one as well, as Rush already went to Oklahoma St. and won 30-27 and has the Chip's off to a 3-0 start covering all 3. This team is vastly underrated, and has a very good defense as well. The Chip's are looking for their 6th straight season at .500 or better, for the first time in their history. Virginia had a run of 17 out of 18 years at or over .500, but the program has fallen off the map, and has not won more than 5 games in the last 4 years, and at 0-3, nothing looks different here, maybe worse. Virginia once again is yielding over 30ppg, and that has been their history over the last 4+ years, allowing 30+. With a limited offense, vs a very strong offense, with an above average defense, it will be hard for the Cavs to stay close here. Make the play on C. Michigan.

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are off to a 2-1 start. That is news for a struggling program that has not won more than 2 games in 6 of the last 7 years. The Eagles are 82-222 SU in their last 304 games. Now the bad news. The Eagles beat Mississippi Valley St. arguably the worst team in the FCS, and then beat Charlotte, and an argument can be made, that Charlotte is the worst team in the FBS. between those wins was a 40 point loss to Missouri. Bigger than that loss however was the loss of Shaq Vonn in that game. EMU has limited skill players, and Vaughn was arguably their best. Wyoming opened the season with a win vs the MAC over N. Illinois, and was beaten badly by Nebraska as expected. e. Michigan has not won 2 consecutive games since October22, 2011, or 5 years ago, and own a 24-43 ATS mark off a win. Wyoming is not a good team, but compared to E. Michigan, they should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. E, Michigan is 8-70 SU in their last 78 games vs the FBS, when outside the conference. Make the play on Wyoming.

The Clemson Tigers rolled over teams a year ago with a Heisman caliber QB in Deshaun Watson. he decided to return for his senior year, and appears quite tentative thus far. Last year he threw for 8.4 yards per attempt, rushed for 5.3 yards a carry, and completed nearly 68% of his passes. This year he is completing just 57%, at a pedestrian 6.8 yards per attempt, and has run for just 3.7 yards per carry, and after running for 12 scores a year ago, he has 0 this season. he ran for over 1100 yards a year ago, and through 3 games, he has just 84 yards. It appears that they are being cautious with him, as keeping him on the field is of the utmost importance. Last week vs Auburn just 19 points. Georgia Tech runs the option, and sometimes a good defense struggles against it, and that has been the case with Clemson. These teams have met 5 times in the last 5 years, and Georgia Tech has produced 24,28,31,31, and 31 points, or an average of 29ppg. It would appear that Clemson may need 40 points to cover this one, something they have done on the road just 32% of all games since 2011. This game fits a 70-38 ATS situation on the dog here. ACC home dogs are 23-16 ATS, in Thursday games, including 10-3 ATS from +5 to +12.5. Make the play on Georgia Tech.

The Philadelphia Eagles have won 10 or more games in 11 of the last 15 years. This does not look like one of those double-digit winning teams, or does it? I got a good look last week of QB Carson Wendt. Many are going to look at the numbers, and say, but that was against Cleveland. There is some truth to that, but there is also truth to the fact that he was poised, confident, and accurate. I saw him throw balls right on the money consistently, and he looks to have a chance to be better, and more ready, than advertised. The Eagles offense was successful, and balanced, and an improved defense looked improved. Chicago's offense struggled, and Jay Cutler is now in his 8th year in Chicago, and the Bears are 50-48 SU. I'm not sure why he is still here, as his 142 career INT's and his pedestrian QB rating, don't shine as a Super Bowl caliber QB. He has put up reasonably solid numbers, but at age 33, arguably the best numbers have already occurred. he has a career mark of just 16-28 ATS at home, but the Bears keep hoping he will reach his potential, and with 11 years in the league, I think you have already seen the truth, and it is what it is. They are not on the side of history here either, and the fact that they have a pair of defensive backs on the injury report isn't going to help. September teams off a road loss, and now home, in a toss-up game, lined from -3 to +3, are 62-106 ATS. That goes against Chicago this week, among other things. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Green Bay Packers escaped Jacksonville with a 28-24 victory to open the season. Minnesota was led by their defense in a 25-16 win at Tennessee. The Packers offense sputtered last season without Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb suffered the most. It also had an impact on Aaron Rodgers who was facing a lot of heat, and an average corp of receivers that simply could not get open. It was his worst year in a Packer uniform. Many see the packers getting back to normal with Nelson back on the field, but in the early going he is limited in the amount of plays he is on the field for. The 28 points in game one are going to leave the impression that the Green Bay offense is back, but the truth is, it sputtered against, at best a mediocre Jacksonville defense. Rodgers threw for a pedestrian 199 yards on 34 attempts, for 5.85 yards per attempt, worse than last year. Eddie Lacey and the Packer ground game managed just 3.8 yards per carry. While the points were there, the offense was arguably, worse than a year ago, and that will show vs a stout Minnesota defense. Zimmer said he will not name his starting QB until Sunday, and be it Shaun Hill, or Sam Bradford, the Minnesota offense lacks play makers, unlike the defense, which is loaded with them. Adrien Peterson looked like a shell of his former self, Since the start of the 2013 season, Peterson has averaged 4.4 yards a carry, a number below any of his season's average prior to that. The Vikings offense did not find the end-zone all game vs the Titans, as both scores came by the defense. Blair Walsh attempted 6 FG's in game 1, and history tells us, that a team playing at home, that attempted 5 or more FG's in their last game, does not solve their offensive woes the next week, resulting in a 37-74-4 O/U situation, or a 67% success rate on the under. The game analysis, with historic situational support, positions this game to have significant value taking a position on the UNDER.

The odds makers have punted on this one, basically making this one a toss up, with 3 points going in the column of San Diego. The Chargers lost Keenan Allen for the year, and I think that has played more into the line than the actual impact. Last year Allen played the first 8 games before being lost for the year, and the Chargers were 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. They were a better play without him, the same 2-6 SU, but 5-3 ATS. The Chargers dominated KC last week, ran and threw the ball with precision, but imploded, blowing a 24-3 lead. Most will say the sting of that meltdown will have the Chargers flat this week, but history has not agreed with that camp. teams That lead at the half on the road by 13 or more points the previous week on the road, and go on to lose, are 33-14-2 ATS the following week, including 15-2 ATS since 2006. Basically, these teams come out breathing fire. next consideration is the AFC South effect displayed by the Chargers. Since conference realignment in 2002, the Chargers own the AFC South where they are 25-3-1 ATS, and 13-0-1 ATS last 14. Rivers has carved up the Jags secondary to the tune of a passer rating of 116.3 and 5-1, averaging 30.3ppg. Jacksonville just 52-75-2 ATS since 2008, and Bortles owns just an 84.5 passer rating vs SD, and his road record stands at 1-13 SU. Coach Bradley, since taking over the coaching job at Jacksonville is 1-11 SU in September. Make the play on Jacksonville.

If you like points, your in for a treat here, as Texas Tech has been a scoring machine since the start of last season, and are shockingly, getting better offensively. This is a team that has averaged 61ppg at home since the start of last season, and have scored a minimum of 52 points at home. While the defense is awful, the trade off is, the offense stands out a lot more than the deficiencies of the defense. Tech is close to 700 yards of total offense in their first 2 games. Texas Tech vs the similar mid-level conferences of the Mountain West, USA, and Sun Belt, are 15-0 SU at home winning by an average score of 45.4-17.7 or by just about 28ppg. LA Tech gave Arkansas everything they could handle, and that surely has limited the line here, but the challenge they face here, vs an electric offense, is something they have not seen before, and a lot of these mid-level conference teams simply don't have the depth to keep up. LA Tech caught Arkansas off guard, and Tech will take note, but here is the big difference. Tech returns 0 linebackers, and just one member of the secondary. Last game, CB Ephraim Kitchen injured his groin, and DB Jerrell Jackson, a transfer from Hawaii expected to challenge in the secondary, quit the team. The back 7 has little experience, and little depth, and won't be prepared for the onslaught they receive. They will get there points, Tech does not defend well. here is an eye opener. Texas Tech is 153-66-5 ATS in all games since 1980 when they score 28 or more points. I think it is quite obvious their chances of getting there are extremely high. LA Tech is 28-75 ATS on the road over the same period if they allow 28 or more, including 6-34 ATS with a line from +7.5 to +21.5. Make the play on Texas Tech.

It has been a good news, bad news week for Army. Their win last Saturday has them at 2-0 for the first time since 1996. The sad news is, Brandon Jackson was killed in a single car crash just hours after that game. The Black Knights have dedicated the rest of the season to Jackson, as well as their game vs UTEP. We have seen so many times when a team steps up to honor a fallen teammate, coach, owner, etc. It seems to galvanize and focus a team's commitment in their next game. There is more good news for Army. This game is being played in El Paso Texas, with Fort Bliss right around the corner, and there will be countless Army fans in the seats. Secondly, the history of both Army and Navy playing in Texas, as why? I have done a lot of research on this. What I found was Army and Navy get a ton of players from Texas every year (35 combined players from Texas this year on Army and Navy Rosters). Coaches report the most competitive week of practice is when they are playing in Texas, as players do everything they can to make the travel squad, and local parents often have a barbecue for players, and the games are always well attended by Army supporters. The record bears this out. Army and Navy are 24-4 ATS in Texas (Army 11-2). UTEP has played well at home, but have some injury issues, especially at QB as Zack Greenlee injured his knee missed last week, but did practice on Tuesday, and it looks like he will play, but at what capacity if he does? Army has not been good for a long time, and many will point to their 2-10 SU record in their rare games as road chalk...but those were all bad Army teams. If you go back to 1996, the last time they were 2-0, their mark as road chalk was 9-3 SU. I think this Army team is more like those. Army has always had turnover issues, but have yet to turn the ball over this year, and it is just the 6th time they have gone 2 straight games without a turnover since 2010, and they have a winning spread record in the first 5. The last 2 times UTEP saw the option was in 2014 where they allowed 410 rushing yards at 7.9 yards per attempt, and 2013 allowing 395 yards on 6.9 yards an attempt. Army finished 47th in the country on defense last year, and are currently 25th through 2 games. Make the play on Army.

I am making a late add to the plays for Saturday, based almost entirely on a situation that is 115-46-2 ATS 71.4% winners, and has not finished any season with a worse winning percentage than 59%, and in fact the worst it has done in the last 9 years is 67%! This is one of few situations I will play blindly, because it is so strong. Make the play on Mississippi St.

I am making a late add to the plays for Saturday, based almost entirely on a situation that is 115-46-2 ATS 71.4% winners, and has not finished any season with a worse winning percentage than 59%, and in fact the worst it has done in the last 9 years is 67%! This is one of few situations I will play blindly, because it is so strong. Make the play on Boston College.

Bill Snyder has been around Kansas St. football for many years, and is serving his 2nd stint as the team`s head coach. The first stint sa him compile a record of 136-68-1 SU and 108-77-3 ATS. he returned at an advanced age, but the game has far from passed him by, as he is 57-34 SU and 54-36-1 ATS in his 2nd stint. The 162-113-4 ATS mark in his career here, is the best in the country at 59%, so he always has to be considered. When you take a peak at his numbers as a home chalk from -12 to -34 he is 40-19 ATS. Florida Atlantic has had little success, and the last time they had a winning record was in 2008, and they are 26-60 SU since then. The strength of the team was supposed to be on defense, but they were torched for 530 yards, and out-gained at home by S. Illinois, and through 2 games, they are allowing 500 yards a contest. They certainly have not thrived facing the superior teams in the Big-12 where they are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7, having been outscored 6.7 to 44.3 or by just about 38ppg, and have failed to cover by 15.07ppg. Kansas St. opened at Stanford, and despite out-gaining the Cardinal by 63 yards a -1 turnover margin sealed their fate. The resolve of this Wildcat team under coach Snyder reveals that they are at their best off a loss at 55-28 ATS, including 34-13 ATS at home. This one as the potential to be a colossal blowout, and with SW Missouri St. on deck for the Wildcats, no look ahead to worry about. Make the play on Kansas St.

Make no mistake about it, this will be the biggest football game ever played in Boone, NC. Appalachian St. has never hosted a power-5 conference opponent. This is a very experienced and talented team, with a storied history in the FCS, and writing their own history since joining the FBS in 2014-15. Since October 11, 2014, the Mountaineers have only seen 3 FBS teams lose fewer games than they have, Ohio St., Alabama, and Clemson. The 3 losses were at Clemson last year, where they were out-gained by just 95 total yards, as Clemson played in the National Championship game. This year they traveled to Rocky Top to take on a top 10 Tennessee team, and took them to overtime, losing a heart breaker on a fumble recovery in the end-zone in overtime. Tennessee out-gained them by just 27 total yards. This team went to Michigan in 2007 and beat the Wolverines 34-32 in front of 109,000 people. The Mountaineers play at 3,300 ft. perhaps not enough to cause problems for the Hurricanes, but maybe just enough. This is a talented team, led by a QB in Taylor Lamb that threw for 31 TD's a year ago, and ranked #10 in QB efficiency in the nation. RB Marcus Cox went for over 100 yards vs Clemson last year, and 125 vs Tennessee this season. Cox has rambled for 4,336 yards in his career and 46 TD's. Jalen Moore, and Terrence Upshaw combined for over 1,100 yards a year ago as well, and return. The defense, a team strength a year ago, returned 9 this season, and should be better, and have been tested vs Tennessee. Miami has a new coach in Mark Richt, who was let go by Georgia. Richt had many good years there, but just could not get over the top, as Florida, LSU, and Alabama seemed to always get in his way. He faces a similar challenge in the ACC competing with Florida St. and Clemson. One note on Richt. His entire lengthy career at Georgia is notable for one absence. He never played a road game vs a team not from a power5 conference. The Hurricanes enter completely untested, and while the rushing numbers have been great, the OL is a major concern, and defensively, they are switching to a 4-3, and the back 7 is very inexperienced, and not deep. This is a huge opportunity for Appalachian St. who has a storied history of Championships, and success. I think the Clemson game a year ago, as well as the Tennessee game this year, both on the road, will serve them well here. The Mountaineers will not be intimidated, and Miami may not take this game as seriously as they need to. The upset is a very real possibility, and players have positioned themselves to the obvious, with 75-80% of all bets on Miami. Despite that, the line has dropped some, showing a lot of sharp action running with the Mountaineers, and I see what they see. Make the play on Appalachian St.

Georgia St.did not join the FBS until the beginning of the 2013 season. They certainly had a trying 2 years, going 1-21. They had a major bounce last season, behind a very experienced and blossoming QB in Nick Arbuckle. Arbuckle set the Sun Belt record for passing yards with 4,368, and carried the team. The Panthers did very little on the ground, finishing dead last in the Sun Belt rushing for less than 100 yards a game. Despite Arbuckle's heroics, this team was still mediocre at 6-7, but did make it to a Bowl game, which they lost. Notable from a season ago was how they fared in the 2 toughest games. They lost to Oregon by 33, and Georgia Southern by 34. That was with Arbuckle, this year it is with Conner Manning, a completely different result. Manning has completed just 51.8% of his passes, at 5.3 yards per attempt. neither was vs a defensive minded unit, in Air Force and Ball St. The ground game, missing from a year ago, has generated much less with 39-104 at 2.67 yards a tote. They have been out-gained 986-441 in those 2 games. They also have struggled by the fact that Will Lutz has graduated, as Lutz punted, kicked off, and was the FG kicker as well. So far they are averaging a meager 35.1 yards per punt. Trouble lies ahead vs Wisconsin. The Badgers have had 14 straight winning seasons, 7 of which produced 10 wins or more. Just 7 teams have more wins since 2005. This is a team that always brings it on defense. They have dominated the time of possession battle vs LSU, who had the ball just 22 minutes, and Akron, who had it just 19. Georgia St. will be lucky to crack the 20 minute possession barrier, and I expect this one to get ugly early. I would be shocked if Georgia St. scores in the first 3 quarters of this game, if at all. There is situational support as well as 2-0 home favorites are 32-11 ATS vs an 0-2 team since 1980, and if it is a power5 conference team, that jumps to 26-7 ATS. If the 2-0 team is off a 24 or more point win, they are 14-0 ATS in this spot, as well as being 23-3 ATS if their opponent lost their last game by 7 or more points. All Badgers, all the time, lay the lumber, and play on Wisconsin.

The Miami Dolphins have not had a coach that compiled a winning record since Dave Wannstedt (2000-04), and they have turned the reigns over to Adam Gase. Gase was given a 5 year contract, so it appears there will be some patience here, and their better be, as the Dolphins are poised to finish last in the AFC East. Last year was supposed to be big for QB Ryan Tannehill, but things were no different from 2014, except his completion percentage dropped. The result was a 4,000+ yard season, but just 19.1ppg. One issue has been the fact that his last 64 starts have seen him sacked 184 times. The running game is in flux, and I think the Dolphin's offense is going to be more troubling than even last year. They went from 14th to 26th in yards last year, and from 11 to 27 in points. Since the start of the 2007 season, the road has not been friendly for the Dolphins offense, at 17.7ppg, and that has led to a mark of 27-45 O/U, in 72 games, 62.5% under. Seattle is 31-6 SU in their last 37 at home, allowing 15.7ppg. They have led the league in fewest points allowed 4 straight years, and I expect no drop off this season. Biggest problem for this team s on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 2014, and in a short period of time, have 0 offensive lineman left from that team, and will rely on a couple rookies this season. They no longer have Lynch to romp for big chunks f yardage, and Rawls is coming back from a broken ankle, and a reduced offensive line. While Seattle has allowed 13 points or less in half of their last 14 home games, they have managed 30+ in just 4 of their last 14. If you do the math, the numbers don't add up, especially when the opponent is weak offensively. Seattle allows 12.5ppg when listed as a home favorite of 10 or more. That drops to a ridiculous 5.7ppg if it is prior to week 5, when injuries, fatigue, bumps, etc. have not kicked in yet. If this game is going to reach the total, the Seattle offense is going to have to score big, but they have not topped 31 points as a 10 or more point home favorite in their last 9, which was late in the 2013 season. Make the play on the under.

This is by far the squarest play of the weekend, with almost every bet coming in on Green Bay. The packers are getting 83% of all bets as of this writing, and that is never a good sign as this one looks far and away too easy. The Packers have struggled on the road vs the AFC, especially as a road favorite where they are 5-6 SU to an average line of -5. We have seen 8 of the 11 wins by a single score, either way, so while this one looks to be easy, I would expect it will be anything but. Jacksonville, for as bad as they were a year ago, out-scored their opponents at home by 1.6 points per game, where 4 of their 5 wins came from. teams that had more wins than their opponent from the previous year are just 52-79 ATS in week 1, and 30-56-2 ATS if the line is less than -7. The jags offense has taken the step forward, and should get better with a revamped offensive line, and 1,000 yard rusher from the jets last year, Chris Ivory. The defense should be better by default, as it was awful a year ago. Green Bay's offense took a huge step down. Jordy Nelson is not ready to play a full game, and Aaron Rodgers was off last year, as the Packer offensive line is supplying a lot of question marks. This one looks to be close either way, make the play on Jacksonville.

There are not a lot of expectations after Cal saw their QB go #1 in the NFL draft, but things may be looking up for the Bears who got a late transfer signing with QB Davis Webb from Texas Tech. Webb immediately took control of the offense going 38-54 for 441 yard at 8.2 yards per attempt vs Hawaii. The Bears have 4 offensive linemen returning, along with 3 backs that all went for over 500 yards a year ago. The defense is still a work in progress, but since coming on board, DC Art Kaufman who inherited a defense that allowed 45.9ppg the year prior to his arrival has taken those numbers down to 39.8ppg in his first year, and 30.7ppg a year ago. I expect the offense to be as good as ever, and the defense improving a bit more. San Diego St. opened with an as expected easy win 31-0 vs New Hampshire. The running game will be the strength of the offense, but the receiving corp is limited, and Pumphrey led the team with just 28 catches a year ago. It has been a huge challenge over the years for San Diego St. going up against the Pac-12 where they are a pathetic 5-43-1 SU. They lost to Oregon St. 28-7 in 2014, and last year were crushed by this same Cal team 35-7. They are 1-23 SU vs the Pac-12 since 1995, beating a 4-8 Washington St. team in 2011 for their only win. Make the play on California.

The Boise St. Broncos failed to win 10 games last season for just the 2nd time in the last 10 years. What is more ominous is it is the 2nd time in 3 years, after this program went 70-8 SU. Bryan Harsin does not appear to be bringing the same type of team to the field, and Boise St. who was on a 100-4 SU mark at home, went 4-2 here last year, and for the first time lost 2 straight on the Smurf Turf. The offense is loaded, but the defense has some serious issues with just 1 defensive lineman returning, and the corner back position has some issues as well. That is a dangerous situation going up against Washington St, and QB Luke Falk. Falk threw for over 4500 yards a year ago, with 38 TD's and 8 INT's. WR Gabe Marks shunned the NFL, to chase a Rose Bowl dream, and this will be one of the most potent offenses in the country. the Cougars went from 3 wins in 2014 to 9 a year ago, and could be a dark horse in the Pac-12. Alex Grinch took over the defense last year, making huge gains. he took a team that allowed 38.6ppg in 2014, down to 27.7ppg last year. he also took over a team that forced just 8 turnovers in 2014, and tripled it to 24 a year ago. Washington St. lost to E. Washington in their opener, but don't forget, they lost to Portland St. in their opener a year ago, and then went on to win at Oregon, UCLA, and Arizona. Make the play on Washington St.

Nick Saban has built a powerhouse at Alabama, winning 3 of the last 5 National Championships, and come into 2016 as the consensus favorite to do it again. Many will point to the fact that Saban has to replace his QB, and point to that as a weakness, but Saban has had to do so for the 3 previous seasons as well, and don't forget that 6 of the last 7 NCAA Champion had a QB that was starting for the first time. Freshman Blake Barnett got the start, and he struggled to move the offense, and the Tide found themselves down 3-0 after 1 quarter vs USC, and appeared to be in trouble offensively. Enter QB Jalen Hurts, and things immediately changed. The Tide went on to outscore a very good USC team 52-0, for an impressive, dominating easy win. The defense, which may be Saban's best ever (which is saying a lot), held USC to less than 200 yards, and just 3 yards per play. The Tide has hosted 3 C-USA opponents since the start of the 2014 season, and have outscored them 130-22. W. kentucky is off a 12 win season, the best mark by far in program history. It will be mighty hard to stay on top, as gone is a QB that accounted for 10,000 yards and 100 TD's, all in the last 2 seasons. Unlike Alabama, this is not a program that just reloads. The problem is the offense is not going to be able to score at the same rate vs better teams, and the defense, one of the worst in 2014, that allowed 40ppg, and improved to 25.9ppg a year ago, is going to take a step back. The offense is not going to hold the ball as much, and 7 starters are gone, so they may be closer to the 40ppg they allowed in 2014, than the 25.9ppg allowed a year ago. A team like Alabama is going to limit them offensively, and as we saw vs a strong USC club, the Tide put up 52 in 3 quarters. This game fits a situation that sees home favorites off a win of 35 or more points, and facing a team that played a high scoring game of 60 points or more, have gone 199-123-8 ATS, 61.2%. lay the bundle and play on Alabama.

Kansas came into this season having lost 15 straight games. It appeared certain that would end last week vs Rhode Island, but nothing has come easy for this team the last 6 years, as they were 12-60 SU coming into the URI game. The fact is they have opened with a FCS team in each of the 6 years and failed to cover in each of the last 4. The 55-6 win was huge for this team, but it also shows this team has a bit more in the tank than previous Kansas teams. The same can't be said for Frank Solich's Ohio U. team. The Bobcats were prohibitive home favorites vs a weak Texas St. team, and lost at home 56-54 in 3 OT's. Teams losing in overtime as a greater than or equal to a -17 point favorite are 2-7 ATS in their next game, and a winless 0-3 ATS as a dog. Kansas has not won a lot of games, but they are still a Big-12 team, that is 17-6 SU vs the MAC,Mountain West, and C-USA, the teams considered the mid-level conferences of the FBS, and own a 9-3 ATS record vs the MAC. I took Kansas at more than 2 wins for the season, and a win here will make that a push or win, through just 2 weeks. Kansas will be in the best frame of mind they have ever been, tasting victory, playing at home, and having a good shot at starting 2-0. Make the play on Kansas.

Last year, new Coach John Bonamego saw the preseason coaches poll peg his team for last place in the MAC West. He shocked everyone with a finish that had the Chip's tied for 1st. It was a huge success, and he looks to build on that this season with a lot of returnees and the best QB in the MAC in Cooper Rush. Rush has thrown for 6,088 yards, and 68 TD's in his career, and with a strong season, he could reach the 10,000 yard mark. CMU has to get more from a ground game that managed a MAC worst 101.3ypg a year ago, but that was in large part caused by the loss of Devon Spalding in game 5. Spalding is back, and that should help Rush be even better. Last year at home they led Oklahoma St. into the 3rd quarter, before falling 24-13, and were out-gained by just 77 yards. Oklahoma St. has a very good QB of their own in Mason Rudolph, but the running game was ranked 114th a year ago, and they will need to do better. CMU had the ball for 33:26 in their game a year ago, and have a strong enough offense to stay within 3 TD's. Make the play on C. Michigan.

The NFL will lift the curtain on the 2016 season, with a rematch of Super Bowl teams, as the Carolina Panthers head to the Mile High City of Denver, looking for revenge. Everything went right for the Panthers a year ago, as they became the first team to finish 15-1 or better in the regular season since the Green Bay Packers did so in 2011. The fact is since 1989, there have been just 4 teams with 15 or more regular season wins, and none won more than 11 games the following season, and 3 of the 4 failed to cover in week 1 of the next season. Carolina has pretty much the same team, but they will miss lock down CB Josh Norman the most, and if this team is vulnerable, it will be exposed in the back 4. Carolina will probably play a lot of cover 2 this year to help protect the secondary. One blemish, undetected from a year ago, because of the Carolina success, is the fact they had 4 FG's blocked. The big news in Denver is at QB. The legendary Peyton Manning has retired, but honestly he was a mere shell of himself a year ago. The QB was not the strength of this team a year ago, as they combined to throw 23 INT's, and Peyton, was at the heart of that problem. Former 7th round draft pick from Northwestern, Trevor Siemian will take over. If he is as good as the last Northwestern QB to start a game one, Otto Graham, in 1955, the Broncos will repeat, but he doesn't have to be good, Peyton wasn't, and look what happened. The broncos were 4-2 without Peyton starting last year, scoring 2.7ppg less, so while most make this a big issue, I don't. Denver has C.J. Anderson, and Devontae Booker and a rebuilt OL with free agent tackles Russell Okung, and Donald Stephenson in the fold, as well as G Ty Sambrailo back from injury. They also have former Ohio St. TE Jeff Heuerman, who missed all of last season. The defense is scary good, front to back, with ample depth to boot. Carolina will have a lot of trouble duplicating last year's +20 turnover margin. Since 1989 NFL Super Bowl teams are 3-20 ATS starting the season on the road, including 1-13 ATS if they lost the Super Bowl. let's not forget, this game is at altitude, and game 1 a lot of players aren't conditioned as well as they would be later in the season, and Denver is 19-10-2 ATS here as a home dog, as well as 18-13 SU! When it is an NFC team visiting, which obviously come here infrequently, Denver is 9-1-1 ATS here. They held this Panther team to 10 points in the Super Bowl after they averaged over 30 in their previous games. Make the play on Denver.

You have to feel for the New Mexico St. Aggie Football team. They are being bounced out of the Sun Belt Conference after next season. They are a program that has had no success to speak of over the years, and they don't bring much to the table in any conference. This program may be facing extinction. The Aggies have not won more than 4 games since 2004, and boost just 2 winning seasons since 1992, yikes! Coach Doug Martin enters his 4th year, but what does he bring to the table? He was fired from his only coaching job at Kent St. where his team produced a 29-53 record, and not a single winning season. New Mexico St. is 9-58 SU on the road the last 11 years, and 5 of the 9 wins were by 3 points or less. UTEP is off a disappointing season a year ago. Any hopes of repeating their 2014 success went up in flames when star RB Aaron Jones went down early, and missed the last 10 games. UTEP may see QB issues resolved with Fresno St. transfer Zack Greenlee. UTEP has become dominate at home where they are 8-2 SU in their last 10, and have allowed 18.6ppg in their last 8 contests here. They should not need a lot from the QB position in this one, as Aaron Jones should have a field day. New Mexico St. allowed 300 rushing yards and 35 rushing TD's a year ago, and sadly that was their best effort in the last 3 years! I just don't see them being competitive here vs a big, nasty, and tough o-line in UTEP. Lay the points and play on UTEP.

The Nebraska Corn Huskers had one of the worst years in program history in 2015.A lot of their recent failures have been due to turnovers, that have simply broken against them, as they are -37 in net turnover margin the last 4 years. Despite of all that they are still 34-19 SU during the period. Last year turnovers cost them 4.81 points per game, so when you look at the 7 losses by 1,2,2,3,5,8,10 points, this team was not far from being a 10 win team. This year has a lot of promise, playing on the weak side of the Big-10, and if things break better, they could find themselves in the Big-10 Championship game. The Huskers are 48-1 SU in their last 49 non-conference games that were not against a power-5 conference, or independent, and 27-18 ATS in those games. When favored by 28 or less, they are 29-1 SU and 22-8 ATS, winning by an average score of 42.8-13.6. Fresno St. has been awful the last 2 years, and prospects for advancement are not all that great, especially early. The offense ranked 121st last year at 315 yards per game, while the defense was 101st. They have a long long way to go on both sides of the ball. back in 2013 they reached the red-zone 71 times, in 2014 they did so 55 times, and last year just 33 times, as they have fallen off the cliff offensively. They were out rushed a year ago 2,816 yards to 1,642. perhaps more telling was their 5 games as a dog of +12 or more where they went 0-5 SU/ATS, being outscored 268-83. Their 2 toughest games vs Ole Miss a loss by 73-21, and BYU 52-10, shows just how far away from elite, or top programs. The last 2 years as a dog of +11 or more they are 0-11 SU/2-9 ATS, and allowing 50ppg. Nebraska should win this one by 5 TD's or more. Make the play on Nebraska.

 LA Tech broke through to put together consecutive 9 win seasons for the first time in school history. Coming back for a 3rd is going to be nearly impossible. Tech caught lightning in a bottle when Florida QB transfer, decided to come to LA Tech. He led a potent offense, that also included RB Kenneth Dixon. The defense was anchored by 1st round Carolina draft pick DT Vernon Butler. The trio of NFL draftees, leaves this team with a ton of leadership voids, diminished talent and experience, and in need of an inexperienced QB to step up, with inexperienced backs. Compounding the problem is a defense that lost 8 starters, and a lot of voids to fill. This team will have a chance o improve, and fare well in C-USA, but taking to the road in game 1, vs a stacked Arkansas team, is going to be problematic. Tech is just 19-98 SU on the road in their last 117, and 0-14 SU vs the SEC and 4-10 ATS, when a road dog of 20. Arkansas is loaded, and don`t discount Bret Bielema. Remember it took him 3 years to turn Wisconsin into a time Rose Bowl team, and his first 3 in Arkansas have seen improvements every year, from 3 wins, to 7, and 8 last year, where they finished 7-1. Remember this team had an impossible 4 SEC road games a year ago at LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Bielema`s squad was more than up to the challenge, winning 3 of the 4. Tech is in trouble, as they are going to have to run, and the best part of the Arkansas defense is the front 7. Arkansas is 51-3 SU at home in non conference games, including 44-0 SU since 1997, if not facing a power conference team. This one should be a monster blowout by Arkansas. Make the play on Arkansas.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will open the season with an ACC battle, that will be played in Ireland. Both of these teams went 3-9 a year ago, and each will be primed to get the season started on a winning note. Paul Johnson, and his triple option, suffered their worst offensive season in 8 years with the dominating ground game. A lot of it had to do with key injuries in the backfield, but the biggest problem was an offensive line that was really poor. The prospects for this year are higher as they will open the season healthy, but at the same time the biggest question mark on this team remains a poor offensive line, that will have to get better. The Tech defense has never been really good, or for that matter really bad. They are going to need a lot of help, as the only true All-Conference caliber player on the defensive side has moved onto the NFL in DT Adam Gotsis. The BC offense wasn't even an offense a year ago, averaging a paltry 10.6ppg vs FBS opponents. Enter successful OC Scot Loeffler, and QB Patrick Towles, a Kentucky transfer who has been around since 2012, and 2 full years as a starter, and their is an immediate upgrade. The defense allowed 15.2ppg a year ago, and was elite in all aspects, and while there were losses, there remains an All-Conference player at all 3 levels, front, linebacker, and defensive back, and still a lot of talent. QB Darius Wade is also healthy, and either he or Towles will find a lot more success than what was available a year ago. I think BC has the advantage here on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and should be a live dog in their opener. Make the play on BC.

Friday September 2nd, 2016

 The annual Rocky Mountain Showdown, always has the teams ready to play, as Colorado takes on Colorado St. Colorado over the last 5 seasons has been horrible, collecting just 13 wins and losing 48. Perhaps more importantly, they are 9-3-1 ATS in wins, and just 14-33-1 ATS in losses. The key will be how healthy QB Sefu Liufau is, and he apparently will be the starter. While last season didn`t look very good, the Buff`s are certainly knocking on the door. They played 4 Bowl teams to an average of -5ppg, in Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah. A big key was hiring Jim Leavitt to oversee the defense, and the Buff`s D responded allowing their fewest points per game in 9 yrs, and 9 of the 11 return. The 3-4 was installed a year ago, and should be even better this season. Colorado St. has a pair of qualified QB`s, but the top 4 receivers are gone. The defense lost the entire front, necessitating a switch to a 3-4, and the entire secondary has to be replaced as well. This will be a challenge for the defense, learning a new formation, and one that allowed 200 yards on the ground in 8 of their last 10 games. This team should emerge competitive in the Mountain West, but opening with more questions than answers vs an underrated Colorado team, is going to be a tall order. Make the play on Colorado.

The Arizona Cardinals will take on the Carolina Panthers for the NFC Championship, with the winner heading to the Super Bowl to take on Denver or New England. Carolina may be the worst 16-1 team in NFL history, and that is not to suggest they are a bad team, they are a very good one. Many wonder why they are favored by a scant FG at home, which basically says Arizona is the better team? The fact is Arizona is the better team, as the Cards 0.7 yards better from the line of scrimmage than their opponent, while Carolina is -0.1 yards worse than their opponent on a per play average. Carolina owns a 0.4 advantage on defense, in average yards per play vs their schedule of opponents. Arizona has out-gained opponents by 80 yards a game, and Carolina just 35. The Panthers have actually played 9 games decided by 1 possession, and too their credit, they have won 8 of them. The fact is, in their last 3 games they have generated an average of less than 310 yards per game, with their opponents averaging 387. They have been out-gained in all 3 games, by an average of 77 yards per game, and sooner or later, when your not the better team from the line of scrimmage, your going to get exposed, and their loss occurred in 1 of those 3 games. Arizona is going to spread the field and play fast, and they are going to score enough points to win this game. Teams with less wins than their opponent in a playoff game to a line of less than 9.5, and they have 11 or more wins are 21-5 ATS in the playoffs. Teams that have a scoring margin of greater than 11.5 points per game, from week 19 on to a total of less than 55, and have more than 12 wins are under a lot of pressure, and are 1-22 ATS, including 0-11 ATS from week 20 on. Make the play on Arizona.

The New England Patriots will seek a repeat of their Super Bowl win a year ago, but they first must travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in the AFC Championship game. The Patriots looked like they were going to be unstoppable starting the season 10-0, but the wheels came off down the stretch where they finished just 2-4, and instead of playing this game in Foxboro, they must play it in Denver. let's start with some shocking numbers. New England in their last 4 road games, generated just 273.5 yards per game, at 5.06 yards per play. That is the ugliest 4 game road stretch in the Brady/Belichick era. What else stands out in glaring fashion is the fact that over their last 4 games the Pats have run off just a total of 213 plays, while they have had to defend 277. That is 17 plays per game more by their opponent, but at the same time a tired defense, that has been on the field a lot. Complicating defensive issues is the loss of LB Jerod Mayo, and injury to LB Jamie Collins, as well as a knee injury to DE Chandler Jones. The Pats defense has surrendered 424.7 yards a game in their last 3, and were out-gained here this year in Denver 433-301, lost the 1st down battle 23-16 and time of possession 36:31 to 25:57. The edge lies in the running game, so crucial to playoff success. Denver has run for over 100 yards in 6 of their last 7, and New England didn't even try to run the ball vs the Chiefs, just 14 attempts. They will have to be more balanced here against Denver to win, and I don't think they can run the ball. Peyton Manning, like last week vs Pittsburgh just has to manage the offense, not win the game. The Denver FG offense should get enough points to win it. The fact is over the last 4 games, the Denver offense has out-scored the New England offense. teams that average more than 28.25ppg from week 19 on with a winning percentage of greater than .750 and a total of less than 55, and a line of less than -13 are 3-18 ATS. (applies against New England). teams that average less than 1 turnover a game (New England), are 8-16 ATS in the playoffs. (5-15 ATS from +5.5 to -12). Everyone thinks the New England is back after last week's good showing by Gronkowski and Edelman, but the net yards were just 301 and that was at home. (5.19 yds per play), which is no better than what they were doing without them. The Broncos have one extra advantage here, the altitude. It allowed them to out-score their opponents at home this year by +3.2ppg in the second half, while they were actually out-scored here in the 1st half! Denver is a strong home dog at 17-10-2 ATS, and at +3 they are 7-1-2 ATS, going 7-3 SU in the 10 games. (6-2 ATS as a home dog if they are .667 or better). Pats just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 as a road favorite (1-5 ATS last 6). make the play on Denver.

I have been waiting all week for the Steeler's injury updates, and this is what I have learned so far. RB Deangelo Williams has not practiced through Thursday, an is likely out. That means that Toussaint, and Toddman are going to have to carry the rushing load. The pair accounted well for themselves vs Cincinnati, but the next issue is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has a shoulder injury, light participation in practice, and I expect he is going to give it a go. His problem is he is not able to throw downfield, something he likes to do often, with a lot of success, and he won't have Antonio Brown, who is out not passing concussion protocol. brown is responsible for nearly 2,000 receiving yards counting the wild card game, and close to 150 catches, and 10 TD's. Martavis Bryant now becomes the #1 target, and he is dealing with a neck injury. Marcus Wheaton will step into Brown's spot, a huge downgrade. The Steeler offense, with an unhealthy Big Ben, missing his world class receiver, and the top two rushers on the team, going against a top rated Denver defense on the road, spells big trouble. Make the play on Denver.

There is something about what happened yesterday in the lucky Seattle Seahawks win, that brought me back to last season. Minnesota missed a 27 yard field goal, by a kicker that was 15-15 in his career on FG's with the temperature of 20 degrees or less. rewind to last year and Seattle trailed Green Bay 16-0 at the half, and got a fake punt pass by their punter for a TD. Then, they score to make it 19-14 with just 2 minutes to play and recover an onside kick and take the lead, before winning in overtime. They should have never been in the NFC Championship game, and they should not be here now. Well, here they are again against Carolina a team that almost ran the table finishing 15-1. Many wonder why the line is just 3, suggesting the game is a pick 'em considering 3 points for home field advantage. The truth is, Seattle is the better team, and has won the line of scrimmage by +85 yards a game, while Carolina is just +44. The other fact is the fact that elite teams in the wrong spot are brutal bets in the playoffs. A team that has a scoring margin on the season of greater than 11.5ppg (Carolina), and the game is beyond week 18 (the wild card round), to a total of less than 55, with 13 or more wins on the season are 0-22 ATS! secondly, any team that averages more than 30ppg, facing an opponent with more than 5 days rest off a road win are 0-10 ATS. I also have situations on Seattle that are 22-6, 14-2, and 19-5 all ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

The Green Bay packers have gotten the talking heads thinking. The offense seemed to come to life against Washington. The 35 points were second best on the season for Green Bay, topping all but the effort in week 3 when they piled up 38 against Kansas City. I'm not buying it for a second! First of all, the Redskins defense is one of the worst in the NFL. yes, Green Bay generated 35 points, but only had 346 total yards at 5.1 yards per play. That is hardly representative of an offensive surge. remember, this Packer team gained 5.6 yards or more in 7 of their first 8 games, the one game they didn't was vs Denver, the #1 defense in the league. Since then, the Packer offense has not generated more than 5.5 yards in any game, and were held to an ugly season low of 3.2 yards per play in Arizona just a few short weeks ago. there is another issue for Green Bay. Through 10 games they turned the ball over just 6 times, with 7 clean games, 0 turnovers. Since then, in their last 7 games, they have turned the ball over 13 times, with 1 clean game. Arizona has the top offense in the league, and the 5th ranked defense. Simply put, they control the line of scrimmage in this match up on both sides of the ball. While the packer offense has done no better than 5.5 yards per play in their last 8, Arizona has topped that mark in 14 of 16 games. The Cards have the home field, and 1.4 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage. That translates to a 10-12 pt margin, so the Packer win and apparent refound offense has changed things here. The Packers are also going to be missing Devonte Adams as well, so don't expect things to get better. Rodgers is once again going to be under siege all game, and that hasn't worked out very well. Make the play on Arizona.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been on a tear winners of 11 straight games, and they opened the playoffs with a 30-0 win over Houston and the game was pretty much over in 11 seconds, after a 106 yard kickoff return to open the game. The Chiefs needed no more points, and Brian Hoyer, and the Texan's offense 5 turnovers were an over and out. The Chiefs, brimming with confidence now take on the New England Patriots, a team that started the season 10-0, but finished 2-4. The patriots awful finish was due in large part to numerous injuries, that left the team hurting on all levels of the game. The bye week has really helped this team heal, and suddenly things look a whole lot different. new England will have LB Donta Hightower back, DE Chandler Jones, OL Sebastian Vollmer, DB Justin Coleman, and most important of all, WR Julian Edelman. Edelman, outside of Brady himself, is the most important player on the Patriots team, period. The proof is in the numbers:

NE on 3rd down with Edelman 54-107 50%
WITHOUT                     34-108 31%

BRADY WITH EDELMAN:

235-342   69%   2804   23   2
167-282   59%   1966   13   5

BRADY IN RED ZONE:

With Edelman  36-59   61%  286   19  1
WITHOUT       17-24   71%  102    8  1

Note the red-zone opportunities rate of diminishing without Edelman. Less than 1/2 the opportunities, one factor is the 50% to 31% decline on 3rd down that kept the Pats out of the red-zone.

While Edelman is not the root cause of all of those numbers, he is by far the most dynamic part of it. When he is on the field with Gronkowski, that means single coverage and favorable matchups somewhere, and no one is better than Brady at exploiting those. Having Vollmer back on the offensive line is huge as well as he is elite.

The pats come limping in at 2-4 in their last 6, and lost their final 2 games, but teams playing in the playoffs off of 2 losses to close the season are 12-4-1 ATS, including 7-0 ATS as a favorite of -3.5 or more. The Chiefs have played just 4 games all season vs an offense that scores more than 24 points a game, and have allowed 27.2ppg against them. Granted some of that was early on when they were playing poorly, but the Bills scored 22, and the Pats offense is vastly superior to the Buffalo offense. Kansas City is now the injured team with WR Jermey Macklin with a high ankle sprain, Hali, and Houston ailing but playing, as well as Dee Ford. Tardif and Moore in concussion protocol. The Pats own a 20-0 SU and ATS record off a loss vs a team better than .570 if the line is less than -7, since 2003, and 17-2 ATS when Brady threw for 195 yards or less with no INT's in his last game. teams on 9 game winning streaks or longer are 1-13 ATS. Playoff GOY on New England.

The Washington Redskins were picked last in the NFC East in just about every preseason publication. What wasn't known were two things. just how bad the NFC East was going to be, and just how good Kirk Cousins was going to be. I think the two are intertwined. Cousins had some dramatic stats. He had 22 TD passes to just 1 INT in wins, but 7 TD's and 10 INT's in the Skins losses. The fact that the division was so bad, and the overall schedule saw Washington face just 3 teams all season with a winning record, leaves this team at 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS when facing a winning club, 4 INT's by cousins, out-gained by 214 yards a contest in those games, and out-scored 35 to 15. The Skins managed a grand total of 704 total yards in the 3 games, and Green Bay has something in common with those teams, they all allowed less than 20.5ppg, as does Green Bay. The Packers have had the 6th best opponent QB rating against numbers, and Cousins has struggled against that kind of team. He has no playoff experience, and that leads to an ugly number, as a team that won 4 games or less last year and make the playoffs this year are not ready for prime time as they are 1-16 ATS over the last 15 years. Green Bay has struggled on offense, but the Skins allow over 380 yards a game, and that should provide enough room for Aaron Rodgers to make some plays, and Eddie Lacey close them out late. Packers are in a 26-2 ATS situation that applies to them playing on the road on a grass surface and a couple other factors. teams entering the playoffs on 2 straight losses are 11-4-1 ATS Make the play on Green Bay.

The Minnesota Vikings may have the advantage with the weather in this game, as game time temperatures are projected to be around 0, with a wind chill of -15 to -20. That will put this game into the top 10 coldest games in NFL history. That being the case it calls us upon looking at the top 15 coldest games in NFL history, and the available data I have researched:

12 degrees  HOU at CHI     Chi  -1   34      FINAL:   Hou  24   Chi   5    ROAD AND UNDER
9   degrees  CHI   at MN      ??          ??      FINAL:   Minn 16  Chi  13     ?????????????

5   degrees  SF    at  GB      SF   -3   46.5   FINAL:   SF    23    GB  20  PUSH AND UNDER
4   degrees  WASH  CHI     CHI -4.5 38     FINAL:  WASH 21 CHI 17  ROAD AND PUSH
4   degrees  TN   at  NE      NE   -6    34     FINAL:  NE   17     TN  14  ROAD AND UNDER
2   degrees  DET at GB      GB   +3   36     FINAL:  DET 24     GB  17  ROAD AND OVER
0   degrees  LAR at BUF   BUF  -7   33.5  FINAL:   BUFF 29  LAR 23  ROAD AND OVER
0   degrees  LAR at GB     GB   -3    32.5  FINAL:   GB    28   LAR  0   HOME AND UNDER
0   degrees  GB   at  MN    MN  ??    ??     FINAL:   GB    23   MN   7   ROAD AND UNDER
-2  degrees  CHI at  MN     MN  ??   ??     FINAL:    MN   23  CHI   10 HOME AND LIKELY UNDER
-4  degrees  NYG at GB     GB  -7.5 41.5 FINAL:    NYG 23    GB   20 (OT) ROAD AND OVER
-5  degrees  OAK at CLV   CLV -3.5 38    FINAL:    OAK 14   CLV  12  ROAD AND UNDER
-6  degrees  IND  at  KC     KC   -8  41.5  FINAL:    IND  10    KC     7  ROAD AND UNDER
-9  degrees   SD   AT CN   CN  -4.5 45     FINAL:    CN   27    SD     10 HOME AND UNDER
-13 degrees  DAL at  GB    GB ??    ??     FINAL      GB   21   DAL   17   ?????????????
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Perhaps the biggest surprise is the success of the road teams, and not so much of a surprise is the under dominance. There have been just 515 total points scored in the 15 games and that is an average of just 34.3ppg. It is also noted, that in the NFL's coldest games, no team has ever scored as many as 30 points! The loser also has scored 20 points or less in all but 1 game, and 17 or less 80% of the time! Make the play on the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers almost blew their chances at making the playoffs in week 16 with a loss to Baltimore, but got things right in their finale beating up on Cleveland 28-12. That coupled with the Jet's meltdown in Buffalo allowed them to make it as a wild card. They will take on the division winning Cincinnati Bengals. Both these teams are top offensively, scoring 30 or more points in 7 games each. While they did play a 16-10 game at Pittsburgh, the Steelers did manage nearly 400 yards in the game, and proved they could score against the Bengals defense in Cincinnati scoring 33. The Steelers would be considered an under team over the years with their big defensive teams, but despite that going back to the start of the 2001-02 season, the Steelers are 17-0 to the over if the total is less than 47 (currently 46.5). Those games have seen an average of 51.5 points scored, and an average total of just 39.6, so they have beaten the total by over 12 points per game. Make the play on the over.

This is the unlikeliest of playoff match ups in 2015. The Houston Texans started the season at 2-4, went through so many QB injuries, yet in the end won 7 of their last 9 to finish 9-7 and win the AFC South. The Kansas City Chiefs were even more special. Kansas City started the season at 1-5, and to make matters worse, lost their best offensive player in RB Jamaal Charles for the season. It certainly looked as though the Chiefs were closing in on the first overall pick in the draft, but they caught fire, gained confidence, and ran the table to finish 11-5. They have now been posted as a road favorite in Houston, and I think the odds makers have it all wrong. The Chiefs bandwagon is officially full now, with the public lining up to grab the scorching hot team. perhaps a lesson in statistics and history can offer some proof. let's remember, the playoffs are a totally different animal, throw out all the regular season stuff, especially streaks. How good a bet have extremely hot teams been once they reach the playoffs? let's try 1-14 ATS if they have won 9 or more straight games, with a losing straight up record as an average of a -6.5 point favorite. That 1-14 ATS mark is also 0-13 ATS the last 13 occurrences. Then there is this issue. The Chiefs are just 2 yards better from the line of scrimmage than their opponent, while Houston is +38 yards better. Remember, everything broke right for Kansas City. They closed 10-0, but 8 of the 10 games were vs teams with a combined record of 45-83, none of which had a winning record. Secondly, the 2 wins they had vs winning teams were tainted. They played Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, had a +3in turnovers and won. They played Denver without Peyton Manning, and Brock Osweiler, when he was green, which resulted in a +5 turnover margin for the Chiefs. Houston has held 5 of their last 9 opponents to 6 points or less, and average 9 more plays than their opponent per game, while the Chiefs are running 5 plays less than their opponents, for more hidden value. We get the better team from the line of scrimmage, playing at home, as a dog, and the opponent in a historically bad spot. Make the play on Houston.

This game certainly could turn out to be a lot bigger for Arizona than Seattle, but regardless of the outcome consider this. The Seattle Seahawks have played 71 games since the start of the 2012 season, and have lost none of them by more than 10 points, and for that matter, they have only lost 2 of the 71 games by more than 7 points. With the point spread creeping up now to the 7 point mark, this becomes a no brainer. Seattle is also 10-4-1 ATS over the same period as a dog, winning 7 straight up. Make the play on Seattle.

The Carolina Panthers learned just how hard it is to run the table in this league. they made it unbeaten into week 16, but thoughts of a perfect season were washed away by Atlanta. If that were not bad enough, the Panthers could still end up not having home field advantage throughout the playoffs if they lose their finale, and Arizona wins. The Bucs have a bit of incentive themselves, beyond taking down a 14-1 team. Tampa Bay with a loss will become the first NFL team since the merger, to finish last in their division 5 straight years, and they would like to strike that news from the records. Carolina had scored 33 or more points in 5 straight games, before just 13 vs a weak Atlanta defense, and the loss may have this team playing very flat, and another offensive meltdown may ensue. This game fits a very strong under situation that is 202-116 ATS, make the play on the under.

The Seattle Seahawks are all about defense, and they will face the ultimate challenge in the desert, going against the best offense in the NFL this year, in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards are tough in the desert, but have not been tough enough for Seattle who has won each of the last 2 meetings here. Seattle, after a slow start has regained some of their swagger on the defensive side of the ball. They are allowing 12.3ppg over their last 4 on just 216 total yards a game by their opponents. Seattle has won 3 straight on the road, and got some good news this week, as Marshawn Lynch is expected to play, and that could add some ball control for the Seahawks, and a closer in a tight game. Seattle is in a different place defensively, than they were in the 39-32 shootout in the season's first matchup with the Cards. This game fits a strong under situation, one that has delivered a 202-116 ATS record. Make the play on the under.

The NY Jets head to Buffalo with their playoff fate in their hands and control their own destiny. The Buffalo Bills had a lot of promise for this season, but came up short of their goal to make the playoffs, and this will not be an easy game for the Jets. Buffalo will be bringing it, as this is their Super Bowl, and nothing could make a sour season sweeter, than knocking the Jets out of the race for the playoffs. Add to the story line the irony that standing in the way is Rex Ryan, and you know his team is going to be jacked up for this game. The jets are in a historically bad situation, that plays against better than .500 teams off a huge home dog win, and are now in a division game. The situation is 16-56 ATS, and the Jets are looking down the teeth of it for their finale. Make the play on Buffalo.

The New Orleans Saints are not destined for the playoffs for the 2nd straight year, and that could spell the dismissal of Sean Peyton. The Saints have a lot of news circulating about the future of many of their top players, including QB Drew Brees, and many are likely not to be here next year. Atlanta looked impressive in a 5-0 start, but the offense crashed and burned, and never found its way back. The Falcons averaged 32.4ppg in their first 5, but since just a meager 16ppg. That has left the Falcons at 12-2-1 to the under for the season, and their games have averaged just 37 points total over the last 10 weeks where they are 9-0-1 to the under. Drew Brees is hurting, the game means nothing, and I see a fast played game, with both teams trying to exit the season without any additional injuries. This game fits a 202-116 ATS under situation. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 44-12 ATS and the play is on W. Virginia.

The TCU Horned Frogs will take on the Oregon Ducks in the Alamo Bowl. these teams had designs on a National Championship, or at least a final four destination, but have followed a similar track. The Ducks and the Frogs both played without their starting QB`s for a bit, and paid the price. Oregon has not been the offensive powerhouse as they have been in the past, but have been right there under the direction of QB Vernon Adams, averaging 48.6ppg in his last 5 starts, all wins. TCU has a similar fate and own a 10-1 record behind QB Trevor Boykin, topping the 50 point mark 5 times. It comes down to the experience of the defenses, as TCU faces a lot of power passing teams in the Big-12, and I think that gives them the edge here. TCU has out-gained opponents by 167 yards a game, compared to the Oregon 68. TCU has better overall numbers against the pass, and with all else being equal, the extra stop or two is the difference maker in this one. Make the play on TCU

This game fits a situation that is 31-7 ATS and the play is on Arkansas

This game fits a situation that is 54-22 AYS and the play is on Penn St.

The Oklahoma St. Cowboys had a very soft schedule, and were 10-0 through 10 games. They really snuck by a lot of teams wit a 3 point win at Texas, a 4 point win at Iowa St., a 2 point win to Kansas St. at home, and a 7 point win at W. Virginia. They beat TCU by 20, but that was a true outlier, as they were out-gained 663-456, and lost the first down battle 36-16. The difference was TCU's 4 turnovers to the Cowboy's 0. The other factor was 4 huge plays for TD's of 48, 50, 74, and 82 yards. The rest of the Oklahoma St. plays were 49 for 202 total yards, just 4.1 yards per play. No team in the last 24 years has entered a Bowl game having started 10-0 and lost their last 2. Ole Miss has 3 losses, one to Florida where they had a -4 in turnovers, while the yardage was close, and a huge, yet undeserved win at Alabama due to a +5 turnover margin. What stands out the most to me here is Ole Miss has been +1.2 yards better on offense than their opponents average, and -0.8 better on defense, for a combined +2.0 yards per play advantage, and only Alabama (2.1), Oklahoma (2.5), Clemson (2.1), have been better this season. When you factor in the 4th toughest strength of schedule those numbers are impressive. Oklahoma St. has a combined +0.9, and while they were considered on of the top teams in the country, that would rank them 15th best. Oklahoma St. faces a Bowl situation that is 12-30 ATS (5-19 ATS lately), based in part on their high scoring game last time on the field. Make the play on Ole Miss.

The Rose Bowl will feature the Stanford Cardinal going up against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa has been disrespected all season, as they came within 3 points of coming into this game at 13-0. Iowa has been noted as a team that was lucky, as they bypassed Michigan St. and Ohio St. in the regular season, but they did play Michigan St. to a 3 point game, and also beat Wisconsin, and beat a Northwestern team 40-10, the same one that beat Stanford. Stanford comes in at 11-2, but the numbers tell a different story as they were out-gained in 6 games. Their stats tell the tale as they out-gained 5 opponents by a combined 1,156 yards, that had a combined record of 20-43. (none better than 7-6). When you look at the rest of their schedule comprised of teams that combined to go 70-31 they were out-gained by -478 yards at the line of scrimmage. They did not out-gain any of them by more than 70 total yards. meanwhile, Iowa faced Michigan St. (12-1), Pittsburgh (8-5), Northwestern (10-2), and Wisconsin (9-3), 4 teams that were a combined 39-11, and out-gained them by a total of +179 yards. Clearly the Hawkeyes getting a TD here is well beyond what the "real" numbers say in this contest. Iowa will also regain the services of RB Jordan Canzeri, a huge change. One of the biggest factors of all are New Year's Day Bowl teams huge situation that qualifies for this contest. It has gone 82-42 ATS. My 2015-16 BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR IS ON IOWA.

This game fits a 22-1 situation, and the play is on the over.

The Tennessee Volunteers will square off with the Northwestern Wildcats in the Outback Bowl. Northwestern finally broke through in the 2012-13 season, their last Bowl appearance, by beating Mississippi St. 34-24. It was the first Bowl win ever for the Wildcats, although they have been good of late covering 4 of their last 5. You can be sure they will be up and ready for this one as they seek a school record 11th win. The Wildcats lost just twice on the season to Iowa, and Michigan, a pair of teams that are a combined 21-4. The 10 wins on the season included 5 as a dog, and own straight up wins as a dog of 7, 10, and 10.5 so they are plenty capable here, just ask Stanford, and Wisconsin. Tennessee won 8 games on the season, held their own to some good teams, but does not have a real signature win on the season. They will be playing for the 11th time this season as a pick or favorite. The schedule strength does not show a whole lot of separation, and the Vols out-gained their opponents by 52 yards on the season, and Northwestern 23, so I don't see better than a TD's worth of separation here, and both teams are healthy. Make the play on Northwestern.

The NCAA Playoffs will bring together the Michigan St. Spartans and the Alabama Crimson Tide. What most have forgotten about Nick Saban is he coached a year at Toledo before taking the reigns at Michigan St. for 5 years. One of his coaches was Mark Dantonio. Dantonio was on his way up at Michigan St. when he took his team to a Bowl game to face his former mentor, and was taken behind the woodshed in a 49-7 defeat. That was the Tide's best defensive team under Saban that allowed just 8.2ppg. This is a strong Tide defense as usual but the offense averages less points than any Tide team since 2009, and the Spartans can play some defense. Michigan St. is 1 point away from being 13-0, and have held their last 4 opponents to 12.5ppg, and those opponents include Ohio St., and Iowa. Spartans are one of the top dog teams in NCAA Football, now 10-0 ATS in their last 10 as a single digit dog. The Tide is allowing 11.2ppg in their last 5. Both these teams love to run the ball, as combined they put it on the ground 84 times a contest, and both run stop units are amongst the best in the nation. Look for a quick, ground heavy game, and a fight for field position in this one. The play is on the under.

The Michigan St. Spartans will take on the Alabama Crimson Tide for the right to play for the National Championship. Alabama has had a ton of success with 3 Championships since 2009, and there has been a hidden tell-tale in their Championship seasons. The Tide has always had a great defense under Saban, but some years better than others. Looking at them since the start of the 2006 season, the key to their success has been stopping the run. The years they did not claim the Championship were told by how many teams gained 100 or more yards rushing against them. Here is the breakdown:

2006   9   NO CHAMPIONSHIP
2007   8    "    "
2008   3    "    "
2009   3    CHAMPIONS
2010   4   NO CHAMPIONSHIP
2011   3    CHAMPIONS
2012   3    CHAMPIONS
2013   5   NO CHAMPIONSHIP
2014   6   NO CHAMPIONSHIP

What you see here is the year's they dominate against the run, they win it all, and in the years they don't they fall short. The last 3 times they saw the number of teams gaining less than 100 rushing yards against them they not only won the Title, they won it and covered with scores of 37-21 vs Texas, 42-14 vs ND, and 21-0 vs LSU. That is 100-35. This year is their best ever at stopping the run allowing just 2.4 yards per carry, and just 2 teams have reached 100 yard against them (fewest ever). Michigan St. would not be here if not for a fluke ending to the Michigan game. They only out-gained opponents by 54 yards a game, the Tide 165 to a much tougher schedule. Michigan St. allowed 7 teams to run for over 100 yards, and derrick Henry is going to be the difference, along with the Tide defense. Make the play on Alabama.

This looks like the best two teams in the country to me, although Alabama fans may argue with that. Both of these teams dominate at the line of scrimmage, out-gaining their opponents by over 200 yards a game. Oklahoma has gone for 30+ points in all but one, their unexplained game vs Texas. The issue is the Sooners had trouble moving the chains against the best defensive teams they faced on the season, and the same can be said for Clemson who produced just 20 points vs Louisville, 23 vs Florida St. and 24 vs Notre Dame. These teams are equally equipped defensively to keep this game out of the mid-60s. Make the play on the under.

This may be the most competitive Bowl Game of the year. Both these teams have out distanced themselves from their opponents by over 200 yards a game. Oklahoma is off of 3 straight huge games to get here, and that may have taken something out of this team. Clemson appears to have that look of a team of destiny. They are getting no respect, as they were chosen as the #1 team, but here they are as a dog, and not a declining dog, a dog that sees the line rising by the day. It has now gotten to the point where the Tigers are steeped in value, as I thought anything from a FG and up was playable, and now we are seeing 5's show up. This team will definitely play with a chip on their shoulder for this game. This is a team that is 16-0 SU in their last 16 games. Oklahoma is in a long line of Big-12 January favorites that have now failed miserably at 4-15 ATS since 2003, playing in January. That includes 1-10 ATS to a line of -7 or less. Clemson in this one.

This game fits a 22-2 situation that plays on the under, which is also 0-18 O/U the last 18 times it has come up. Make the play on the under.

The Houston Cougars had a great year, and if not for an injury to QB Greg Ward Jr. they would have likely finished the season at 13-0. All that sounds good, but Houston did not play a very strong schedule. Yes, they had Louisville early and beat them, but the Cards started 0-3. The AAC is not looking very good either at this point as they are 1-5 SU in their 6 Bowl games, and just 2-4 ATS. The current members of the AAC own a collective 3-10 SU mark in conference history, which equals the Cougars career mark in Bowl games, also 3-10 SU. Florida St. finished 10-2 on the season, and if not for a fluke ending on a short range FG try on the last play of the game for the winner, it was blocked and brought back 78 yards for the loss. The only other loss suffered by the Noles was to #1 Clemson. The Noles on the road in that game, held a lead of 13-10 through 40 minutes, and were right there at 13-16 with 3 minutes left, before surrendering the decisive score. That was despite being -2 in turnovers, resulting in 26 extra plays for Clemson. The Noles won the battle at the line of scrimmage 6.12 yards per play to 6.02 yards per play. This team was close to being unbeaten themselves. Bowl games at Florida St. are serious business, regardless of the opponent. They are 24-8-1 SU, and 22-10-1 ATS. the numbers read like this for Florida St. in their Bowl game. They are 14-2-1 ATS vs all conferences not including the SEC and Big-12. They are 19-6 ATS as long as they are not a double-digit chalk. They are also 15-4-1 ATS when they have 2 losses or more, so they show up always. This team closed the season strong, but tired, playing 9 weeks in a row, and has had a chance to get RB Cook and others healthy. Sean Maguire has been every bit as good as Everett Golson, so no drop off there. make the play on Florida St.

Wisconsin has won 7 or more games for 14 straight years, and will be looking for win #10 against USC to give them 10 wins in 7 of their last 11 seasons. USC may seem like the better program, but the Trojans have not topped the 10 win mark in 7 years, and with just 8 wins, will not do so this season. The fact is Wisconsin is 68-24 and USC is 61-30 over the last 7 years. The Badgers are allowing 11.1ppg over their last 11 games. teams that allow less than 13.5ppg against an opponent that averages more than 33.5ppg cover their bowl game 56% of the time. I also have another situation that is 46-27 ATS. Make the play on Wisconsin.

This game fits a Bowl situation which is 27-6 ATS, and the play is on the under.

NC State is in a Bowl game as a product of a very weak schedule, as they started the season at 4-0 vs the likes of Troy, E. Kentucky, Old Dominion, and S. Alabama. They out-scored these teams 185-48. They beat Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse, the worst teams in the ACC. Their 5 games vs Bowl teams saw them go 0-5 SU/ATS, as well as getting out-gained by all 5 teams. Miss St. is clearly the better team here, off a tougher schedule to also get to 7-5, and fit a Bowl situation that has been 31-7 ATS. Make the play on Miss St.

This game fits a 22-2 situation that plays on the under, which is also 0-18 O/U the last 18 times it has come up. Make the play on the under.

Memphis started the season at 8-0 with a couple nice wins in the mix, but this team faltered down the stretch  and closed 1-3. Navy, Houston, and Temple out-scored them 111-64. Auburn certainly had a sub-par season, closing at 6-6, and covered just 2 games all season. The schedule was impossible to navigate playing 8 top level teams, but they still managed to break even in scoring for and against on the season. Poor point spread teams have flourished in Bowls, as this game fits a 42-21 ATS situation based in part on that. Make the play on Auburn.

The LSU Tigers were expecting a whole lot more this season, but in the end, the lack of a competent QB was their downfall. they have proven time and time again, as they fall short of a National Championship opportunity, they are not a very good Bowl team. Despite being favored in 5 of their last 6 Bowl games, the Bayou Bengals have been 2-4 SU, and 1-5 ATS, which followed a 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS 12 game Bowl run. The difference in this game from the line of scrimmage is just +25 yards per game for LSU, and that simply does not correspond to the line here. LSU started the season at 7-0 and had Championship on their mind, but finished 1-3, so this is surely a disappointment Bowl. LSU allowed 9 opponents to score 20 or more points, and that is the most times they have done so in at least the last 27 years! here is an eye opener. LSU is 52-145-4 ATS when they allow 20 or more points in a game, and are 3-10 SU if it is a Bowl Game. Texas Tech went to Arkansas and won 35-24 earlier in the season, and have reached 48 or more points 7 times on the season, including 26 or more points in every game. Remember the stat from above? LSU if they allow 26 or more points in a game is 23-95-3 ATS since 1989. Tech is 6-1 SU in their last 7 Bowl Games, and has scored at least 31 points in all of them. Make the play on Texas Tech. They are also 9-2 SU in their last 11 Bowl games. One team shows up, the other doesn't, make the play on Texas Tech.

This play is strictly situational. Bowl favorites with less than 8 wins, and have had more than 20 days rest, and on a winning streak of 3 or more games are 1-18 ATS in the last 19 occurrences, including 0-13 ATS as a favorite of -4.5 or less, pick, or dog. Make the play on Nevada.

The Baylor Bears have flirted with the final four the last 2 years, but injuries have reduced perhaps the best offense in NCAAF to just a good one, and they are going to be taking on what is now a decisively better offense in North Carolina. Baylor has lost their top 2 QB's and if that was not bad enough, their top RB, Shock Linwood has been downgraded to doubtful, and their top WR and playmaker, Corey Coleman will also miss this game with a groin injury. Baylor has now become a regular to the Bowl season, but in their last 2 games they lost, giving up 94 total points, and the reduced offense scored just a total of 38 points in the last 2 games. North Carolina fits a 21-2 ATS Bowl situation for this game. Make the play on North Carolina.

The Cal bears have an NFL caliber QB, but the issue here isn't the offense, it is the defense. The worst part of a leaky Bear's stop unit is stopping the run. Unfortunately for them they will get a heavy dose of the run in this game against Air Force. Air Force runs the ball an average of 59 plays a game, and generates 322 yards. teams that average  314 yards or more a game on the ground are 8-1 ATS in their Bowl game as a dog, and 7-0 ATS if the line is +3 or more, with a 3-4 SU record with an average line of +6.4. The 4 losses were by 1,3,1, and 3 points, and they have won the last 3 straight up. teams that pass for an average of more than 300 passing yards a game are 36-47 ATS in a Bowl game (just 5-12 ATS if their opponent averages 207 or more yards per game on the ground), and that becomes 0-3 ATS to a line greater than -5. Running dogs vs high octane passing attacks generally do well, make the play on Air Force.

This game fits a situation which is 56-17 ATS and the play is on Minnesota.

This game fits a situation which is 26-6 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Naval Academy has a chance to record their 11th win of the season, which would be a new high water mark for the school. Keenan Reynolds needs 2 TD's to become the top TD producer in NCAAF of all time. Pitt has struggled down the the stretch, and over the last 3 years have gotten a look at the triple-option which Navy will employ, the problem is they can't defend it. Pitt has faced Georgia Tech in each of the last 3 years, and has allowed 1117 rushing yards on 157 carries at 7.1ypc. That includes 40-376 this year, and almost 10ypc. Navy does it better than anyone this year, and has turned the ball over just 7 times on the season, and is playing at home, where Bowl teams often get the win. Make the play on Navy.

This game fits a situation which is 44-17 ATS and the play is on the over.

The Green Bay Packers may be 10-4 on the season, and on their way to the playoffs, but this team continues to struggle, even with Mike McCarthy back calling the plays. They were extremely fortunate to win in Detroit on a Hail Mary, and were fortunate to come away with a win in Oakland last week. The Packers got a pick-6 and another interception deep in Oakland territory for 14 of their 30 points. The offense generated just 293 total yards, a continued problem. The packers may be the only 10-4 team in NFL history being out-gained from the line of scrimmage. Arizona has a Super Bowl look, as this team is now 12-2 and has won 8 straight games. The Cards hit the 40 point mark for the 4th time this season last week in a 40-17 route of Philadelphia on the road. The Cards own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball at +93 yards per game. QB Carson Palmer is having a much better year than the frustrated Aaron Rodgers, who has spent a lot of time on his back, or running for his life. The Cards are by far the better, and more consistent team, and the fact that they are playing a 10-4 team will summon the "A" game in the desert. Make the play on Arizona.

This game fits a situation which is 133-71 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The New England Patriots are in the playoffs, and will have a chance to once again defend their Super Bowl win from a year ago. It is tough going against a QB in Tom Brady who is 82-23 SU in his last 105 starts, and has picked apart good defenses at 26-15 ATS vs a defense that allows 16.4-22.4 points per game. New England, despite the injuries on offense is just 1 of two teams (the other Carolina), that has scored 20 points or more in all their games. The ominous part of that is the fact that the Jets are 75-157-5 ATS when they allow 20 or more points in a game since 1989. (7-14 ATS vs New England in that spot). jets QB, Ryan Fitzpatirck is just 1-6 SU vs New England under coach Belichick, with 14 TD's and 16 INT's and it is the Patriots defense that has been carrying the team of late, allowing 17 points or less in half their games. This game fits a strong 122-44 ATS situation, and the play is on New England.

 Houston has certainly turned their season around after a 2-5 start, they have reversed things, having gone 5-2 in their last 7. This certainly is not a good team overall, as they have been out-scored on the season and in 10 of their 14 games the offense has been limited to 21 points or less, including each of the last 3. The Texans have seen 4 different QB`s finishing off wins, and uncertainty looms here with either Hoyer or Weeden at QB, and it is one reason the offense has struggled. Tennessee will go with Zach Mettenberger who is 0-8 SU in 8 career NFL starts but he did throw for 248 yards vs New England with a pair of TD`s. Houston has been out-scored 67-43 over their last 3 games. The Titans have lost 5 games by a combined total of 15 points, and 4 games at home by 3 points or less, so they have managed to stay in almost every game at home. They also fit a situation that is 87-32 ATS. Make the play on Tennessee.

This game fits a situation which is 11-54 ATS, and the play is on Dallas.

This game fits a situation which is 77-36 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 27-0 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 20-3 ATS, and the play is on the under.

There are not many situations I play on the blind, but this one has been perfect for so long, I'm riding it out. The Philadelphia Eagles are 27-0 ATS in their last 27 games to the over, after a game in which they scored less than 23 points as an under dog. The average points scored in these games has been 55.5, and have beaten the total by an average of 10.78 points per game. Make the play on the over.

This will be the swan song for Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer. The Hokies went to 6-6 with a win in their season finale, to get here, and will be facing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes. Tulsa finished at 6-6 as well, and while these teams are separated by just 41 yards from the line of scrimmage, the line is monumental, basically because the Hokies played a much tougher schedule. I think the line here has been boosted by motivation beyond reason, as no doubt, V tech will be motivated to send out Coach Beamer with a win. To start with, December Bowl favorites that average less than 30 points a game are just 112-135-2 ATS  45.3% cover rate (1-6 ATS from -14 and up), and a bad bet to begin with. (0-3 ATS if their opponent averages more than 33ppg). Teams that are a dog in a Bowl game, and facing an opponent that averages more than 29 points a game, as a double-digit dog are 12-1 ATS, winning 6 of the 13 games outright! Moreover, since 2004 they are 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU! That's right 6-1 SU as an average dog of +12.6ppg. That is a serious money line consideration. Make the play on Tulsa.