The Denver Broncos have certainly played well on defense, but the offense is holding this team back considerably, and it is about to get worse. QB Trevor Siemian is out with a foot injury which means that Paxton Lynch will get the nod at QB. Lynch has completed passes for just 6.7 yards per attempt, which is a downgrade from Siemian. Jacksonville was supposed to challenge for a playoff spot this season, but it just didn't materialize. They have also had some bad breaks swinging a few games against them. The good news is, despite the 2-9 record they are a much better team than the record would indicate. They are riding a 6 game losing streak, but have been in 8 games this season decided by 1 possession, and are 2-6 in those 8 games, flip that around and instead of 2-6 if they were 6-2, they would be 6-5. Their last 4, all against winning teams were 1 possession games, and 3 of those were on the road. Make the play on Jacksonville.

It is hard to go against the New England Patriots. This is a team that has been one of the NFL's greatest and long lasting dynasties. There will be a lot written about Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. This is a complete mismatch with Brady, who with a win, will become the winningest QB of all time, against the Rams, and Jered Goff, who has yet to win even 1. Tom Brady has had many of good seasons, but this may arguably be his best with a 116.7 passer rating 18 TD's and just 1 INT on the season, and 8.6 yards per attempt. That pales in contrast to Goff's 5.5 yards per attempt. Brady is 31-16 ATS in his career vs a team that allows 18.5 to 24.5 points per game, and the pats have to keep winning if they want home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Rams haven't managed as much as even 250 total yards in Goff's 2 starts, will be hard to keep up here. Make the play on New England.

The Detroit Lions are fresh off their thanksgiving win vs Minnesota, and after the Vikings fell to Dallas on Thursday, the Lions have a bit of a cushion in the NFC North, and a win here could position them very well. The Saints may have something to say about that, as they have recovered from a slow start, gotten themselves to 5-6, and a win puts them back in the playoff hunt, a loss may mean the end to those hopes. Drew Brees is on fire, completing better than 70% of his passes in 6 straight games, a career best. While the Lions are 6-1 in their last 7 games, they have not managed as much as 350 yards in any of them, nor have they rushed for 100 yards in any of the 7 games. Matthew Stafford is having a good year, but points are just not coming. Since starting 0-3 the Saints have covered 7 of 8, have scored in the 40s on 3 occasions and in the 30s in 6, and after giving up 34 or more points in starting 1-4, they have not allowed more than 27 in any of their last 6. Lions come crashing down, while the Saints continue to rise. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Cincinnati Bengals have been to the playoffs for 5 straight seasons, but at 3-7-1 they are pretty certain not to make The Cincinnati Bengals have been to the playoffs for 5 straight it 6. So what has gone wrong? The NFL is a pretty balanced league, but this season the Bengals have drawn the short straw for sure. There are currently 16 teams with better than .500 records on the season, the Bengals have played 9 of them! They have had just 2 games vs teams with a losing record, both wins by the way. Philadelphia started the season on fire, with what then looked like a potential rookie of the year QB in Carson Wentz. Their 3-0 start saw them score 29 or more in every game, allowing just 9 points per game. Fast forward and they have not scored more than 24 since, and have allowed 24 or more in 6 of their last 8. The Bengals, despite facing winning teams each of the last 4 games, are winless, but have lost the 4 games by a total of 10 points. Finally they get a winning opportunity, where they have been very good, against an Eagle's team that has lost its way on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Cincinnati.

Arkansas St. went into last week with a 15 game conference winning streak, and despite out-gaining their opponent 521-292 they lost by 5 points. That is a misleading result, and one that should serve them well here. Arkansas St. is holding their conference opponents to -72 yards per game from their average, while averaging +92 yards in those games. Texas St. is -184 yards per game in conference play, have dropped 7 straight, and statistically are among the worst team in the FBS on both sides of the ball. Texas St. has been out-scored 137-31 the last 3 weeks. Since 1999 a team that has been out-scored by 100 or more points in their last 3 games, and playing as a 21 point or more hime dog, are 9-18 ATS, losing by 33ppg, and have been shutout 7 times! Make the play on Arkansas St.

The Colorado Buffalos have had their best season in a long time, finishing the regular season at 10-2. They lost back to back games at Michigan, and USC, but they come with a big "what if". QB Sefo Liufau was injured early in the 3rd quarter against Michigan, 28-24. He was picking apart one of the best defenses in the country throwing for 9.8 yards per attempt, 3 TD's and 0 INT's. He went out after the first 2nd half drive, and Colorado did not score again. That carried over to USC, and the Buff's lost 21-17 without Liufau. You can argue, they may have gone 12-0 with him. Washington will be under severe pressure as they have to win and perhaps win big, to secure a spot in the four team playoff to a National Championship. I think there is some hidden value here, as Liufau was strong vs one of the strongest defenses, and can keep Colorado in the game here. Make the play on Colorado.

The Western Michigan Broncos are in rarified air at 12-0 for the first time ever, as they take on the Ohio, U. Bobcats for not only the MAC Championship, but for a berth in the Cotton Bowl. This group of seniors were 1-11 just 3 years ago, so they have come a long way. W. Michigan has dismantled Ohio,U. over the last 2 seasons, winning by a combined 56 points, and most everyone thinks this game is going to be a breeze. If history has anything to say about it, then W. Michigan is in big trouble. When an NCAAF Championship Game features a team that on the season has a winning percentage of .250 or more greater than their opponent (100.0 to 66.7% here or 33.3%), they are 6-15 ATS. If the line is from -6.5 to -20.5 they are 0-11 ATS. What is more amazing is the fact that these teams are also 7-4 SU as an average -13.6 point favorite! They have lost straight up as -14.5 favorites twice, and as a -20.5 point favorite. Make the play on Ohio, U.

The Clemson Tigers at 10-1 on the season have their playoff fate in their own hands. A win vs SC, and an ACC Championship game will put the Tigers in the final 4. South Carolina has bounced back from a 3-9 season, to be Bowl eligible at 6-5, despite being out-scored on the season. Part of the reason is they avoided the top 3 teams in the SEC West this year Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. They have been 1-8 SU on the Sec road the last 2 years, with the only win coming vs Vanderbilt 13-10. They have averaged just 11ppg in their 4 road games this year in the SEC. Clemson is out-gaining opponents by 172 yards per game, and like the SEC opponents that thwarted the pedestrian SC attack this year on the road, look for Clemson to pitch a shutout here, or close to one. Make the play on Clemson.

This is a tough spot for Marshall, which has been a solid program over the years. Marshall was 33-8 SU over the last 3 years, but graduation losses were heavy, and this young team is just 3-8 on the season, and still has a lot of growing up to do. The Herd is well below average on both sides of the ball. W. Kentucky was 3-33 SU in their first 3 years at the FBS level, but turned things around swiftly, and have had 6 straight winning seasons since, and win here will give them an opportunity for another 10 win season in their Bowl game. The Hilltoppers are an elite passing team, which is a major weakness with this Marshall team. W. kentucky is averaging better than 50ppg in their last 6, and has won their last 4 games by an average of 37.5ppg. This game also has a situation that favors WKY at 78-35 ATS, and this should be a colossal blowout. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

No surprise that Navy once again has the triple option rolling, as they have averaged 312 yards on the ground per contest. The Middies have now had a winning season in 12 of their last 13 campaigns, and only 18 teams in the FBS have recorded more wins. They are 25-5 SU in their last 30 games, and when they play in Texas, as I have mentioned many times, they dominate. SMU has made considerable progress after closing out the last 2 seasons with a combined 3 wins. They are still a very pedestrian team that has allowed 31 or more points 8 times this season, and better than 40 on 4 occasions. This game also fits a 57-17 ATS situation, make the play on Navy.

Alabama is 58-4 SU at home under Nick Saban. His teams signature is the defense, always has been since day 1. His teams at home have been next to impossible to score on allowing 9.4ppg in 60 played here. That has led to a 16-42-2 O/U mark under Saban at home, including 8-25-2 O/U in conference games. When the total is below 49, is it is in this one vs Auburn, and they are not favored by 34 or more points, with a total of less than 49 they are 0-14 O/U. Make the play on the under.

Kansas and Kansas St. have been rivals for a very long time, but among rivalry games, this one has been brutally one-sided. Kansas is better than last year's 0-12 team, but not much, as they will conclude the 2016 season winning 3 games or less for the 7th straight season. It has been ugly for the Jayhawks on the conference road where they have won 1 time or less in 18 of their last 19 seasons, and have now dropped 35 consecutive road conference tilts, where they are 10-24-1 ATS, losing by an average of just about 30ppg. Kansas fits an uglier 4-34 ATS situation for this game, and owns a 27-58-2 ATS mark in their last 87 as a road dog. Kansas St. meanwhile is in a 94-49 ATS situation here. Kansas St. is on a merciless 7-0 SU/ATS run in this series, winning by 32.4ppg. Make the play on Kansas St.

Tommy Tuberville may be in trouble at Cincinnati. His Bearcats have had a very tough season. It has become pretty evident that his team has quit on him. The Bearcats last 4 games have produced a grand total of 26 points of offense, and in their 7 losses they have averaged less than 12ppg. Tulsa has an 8-3 record losing to just Ohio St., Houston, and Navy, all top 25 teams. Outside the top 25 they are a perfect 8-0 and 6-2 ATS, and averaging nearly 50ppg, and have piled up an average of 555 yards of offense. They certainly can score enough here to get well over the top vs a team that has completely lost its way. Tulsa has dropped 5 straight at the hands of Cincinnati. including an 11 point loss last year. The Golden Hurricanes have their sight on a 10 win season, if they win here, and win their Bowl game, so plenty to play for, and revenge is just an extra sweet reason. Make the play on Tulsa.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

The Oakland Raiders once upon a time dominated Monday Night Football, but they have been bad for a long time, and have not hosted a Monday Night Football game since week 1 of the 2012 season. Needless to say, the atmosphere for this one is going to be electric. The Raiders have not won a MNF home game since 2002, but have only played here 6 times over the period. This is a good spot for them, as MNF favorites off a home division win are 64-36 ATS (51-21 ATS if the team is greater than .580). They also fit a team off a bye situation that is 25-4 ATS. Houston is a negative team from the line of scrimmage overall despite their 6-3 record. Teams that scored 30 or more points in their last 3 games are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last 8 on MNF, covering by a TD a game. Make the play on Oakland.

  It has been a frustrating season for the Green Bay Packers. They have not played at near the level most had expected, and at 4-5 on the season, this is as big of a game for this team than they have faced in a long time, as a loss will have them on life support to make the playoffs. Remember the Packers finished last season with a pair of losses while Washington won 4 straight, and Green Bay came here in the wild card round of the playoffs and won easily. The packers sure have missed a lot of players, none more than Clay Matthews, as they have allowed 34.5ppg without him, and there is a good chance he will be back for this one. Washington has a deep stable of receivers and Kirk Cousins has taken advantage of it, but I think the Packers are going to have their game faces on for this one, and they fit into one of my strongest situations which is an amazing 48-8-1 ATS, make the play on Green Bay.

The Rams are hoping that rookie, and 1st round draft choice Jered Goff makes a splash just like Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott, as he will make his highly anticipated 1st start this week. The ceiling certainly is not high, as the Rams managed 10 points or less in 5 of Case Keenum's starts. Miami is facing back-to-back weeks on the West Coast, but chose to stay in California and practice there all week. The Rams have not run well, but do have a quality back in Todd Gurley, who should find room vs the Dolphin run defense which ranks 30th in the league, and take some pressure off of Goff. Historically, travel or not, teams playing consecutive games in the Pacific time zone from the eastern time zone have not been good bets. LA also fits in a situation that is 77-34 ATS. Make the play on LA.

 The offense is brutal, despite Sam Bradford playing over his head. The offense is going backwards and has not topped the 20 point mark in their last 4 games, and the toll on the defense, having to be on the field so much is starting to show as well. Minnesota's defense allowed 16 points or less in the first 5 games, and has allowed 20 or more in each of the last 4. The Cardinals are starting to put things together at 3-1-1 in their last 5, and has held 3 teams to 7 points or less on the season, and Minnesota is surely a candidate for the 4th. Arizona fits a situation that is 88-37 ATS. Make the play on Arizona.

No team is harder to blow out than the Baltimore Ravens. They have lost just 11 of their last 115 games by more than 1 possession, and since the start of the 2015 season, outside of week 14 and 15 in 2015, when they did so 2 games in a row, they have not lost any other game by more than 1 possession. This team finds a way to hang around games, and I expect they will find a way to do so here. The Ravens have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 62 rushing yards or less. Dallas has won 8 straight but teams that have done so and are home favorites from -4 to -12, are just 5-9 ATS, the point is, there is no guarantee win here. (0-2 ATS in non-conference games). Those number don`t mean a lot, what they show is 8 straight wins does not impact how this game is played, in fact to some extent it works against them.Favorites of -8 points or less are 41-67-3 ATS if they play next on Thursday. Make the play on Baltimore

Sometimes when you look at a game, keeping things simple are the easiest approach. Looking at this game, Navy has run the triple option forever, and there is no secret as to what they are going to do. They run the ball 85% of the time. Their success is measured by staying ahead of down and distance. This year they are averaging over 300 yards a game on the ground, at 5.5 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.8. East Carolina has struggled against the run all season, but as bad as the numbers look, they are even worse. They have held 5 teams to less than 200 yards on the ground (you'll see the significance of this further down). Those teams were as follows. Uconn a team that averages -1.0ypc than the opponents allowance per carry, W. Carolina a 2-8 FCS team, SC who is -1.1 yards per attempt vs the defenses they faced, Virginia Tech -0.4, and Cincinnati -0.6. Those teams generated 695 rushing yards or 139 a game. Then there are these teams. NC St. -0.2 (215), C. Fla. -0.3 (217), SMU -0.0 (242), S. Fla +2.1 (306), Tulsa +0.7 (345). They have faced just 3 plus rushing teams on the season and gave up 962 rushing yards, all over 300ypg. Enter Navy and the triple option, would it be fair to say Navy has an 80% or better chance of getting to 200? I ask that because the last 18 times Navy has rushed for 200 or more yards they are 18-0 SU and 13-4-1 ATS (11-1-1 ATS lately). Navy is as follows in all games: rush for 200+  68-45 ATS, 225+ 65-42 ATS, 250+ 64-34 ATS, 275+ 56-27 ATS, 300+ 51-23 ATS. They certainly are in a very favorable spot. Make the play on Navy.

Wyoming has had a break out season after winning just 2 games in 2015. The credit begins and ends with 3rd year head coach Craig Bohl. Bohl was the architect of a North Dakota St. team that has dominated the FCS, where his teams went 104-32, winning the NCAA Division 1 Championship in each of his last 3 years. His team may have gotten caught looking ahead to SD State last week, as they lost to UNLV in 3 overtimes, despite recovering a fumble in the end-zone for a TD, returning a punt 60 yards for a TD, and scoring as time expired in regulation on a 19 yard pass. They could not contain the unLV ground game, which went for over 400 yards. A problem area for this team has been turnovers, despite a net +3 on the season, the Cowboys have coughed it up 17 times, and against a San Diego St. team that has an FBS high of 19 INT's on the season, that could be decisive in this contest. The Aztecs defense is by far the best in the Mountain West Conference, and the reason they are 17-0 SU and 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games. San Diego St. has won those 17 games by an average score of 35.9-104, covering by an unbelievable 14.26ppg. The Aztecs have their eyes set to earn a New Year's Day Bowl game, and if they win out, they are likely to achieve that goal. san Diego St. ranks 5th in the FBS allowing just 4.4 yards per play. The Aztecs run the ball alot, and rank 23rd nationally in time of possession, so Wyoming is going to have to take advantage of every play to stay in this game, and the Aztecs have allowed just 9 red-zone TD's all season, and the defense has 4 pick-6 TD's. Wyoming can throw the ball, but SDST ranks 11th in the country in pass efficiency defense. The last 14 teams to play more than 2 overtimes in their last game are just 4-10 ATS. Donnel Pumphrey, barring injury will become the career rushing leader in NCAA Football history. He has 6,051 yards and 59 TD's, and is currently 4th, trailing the career leader, Ron Dayne by just 346 yards. Wyoming lost to SD St. last year 38-3. If your worried about the 7,200 ft. elevation in Wyoming, consider that San Diego St. went to Colorado St., and Utah St. last year, both about 5000 ft. and won 41-17, and 40-13. This is a deep team, and Pumphrey ran 32 times vs Utah St. for 223 yards, and combined 52-344 at 6.6 yds carry, so no drop off. San Diego also fits in a situation that is 99-43 ATS, with Wyoming in a negative 51-118 ATS situation, and another that is 0-22 ATS. My NCAAF GOY is on San Diego St.

I understand this is BYU and Umass, and so do the odds makers, but I think they pressed this line. Umass has not lost a game by more than 28 points since playing Notre Dame last September, and they have played the likes of Florida, BC, SC, Miss St., Troy, and LA tech this season. Their average loss has been 17.2ppg in the 6. Umass is also off a bye, and have no players on their injury report. BYU has beaten just 1 FBS team by more than 28 points just 1 time in 2 years. The Cougars will not be focused here, their attention will be fixed on their next game for The Old Wagon Wheel vs Utah St., a huge rivalry.Umass has some good numbers vs good teams, and should at least hold their own here, make the play on Umass.

Once you get to week 9 of the NCAAF season, teams offenses and defenses have declared themselves as to what they are. When a game is posted from week 9 on with a total of less than 39, the mark stands at 1-19-2 OU. Make the play on the under.

Once you get to week 9 of the NCAAF season, teams offenses and defenses have declared themselves as to what they are. When a game is posted from week 9 on with a total of less than 39, the mark stands at 1-19-2 OU. Make the play on the under.

Baylor went 14 years without a winning season, but have now put together 7 in a row. They have been a much better team, but some of that is questionable as they refuse to take on out of conference teams that are a threat. The Bears are 63-24 SU over the period, but from week 1-5 they are 31-4, averaging 49.9ppg allowing 22.3. Then when they get into the meat of their schedule they are 32-20 SU from week 6 on averaging 40.4ppg allowing 35.2ppg. They wilt by 0ppg on offense and 13ppg on defense. They now must try and get by with a QB that has thrown just 35 passes at less than 50% in his career, and not mobile like Seth Russell. Additionally 2 key RB's were injured last game, and Shock Linwood is coming off suspension, so the offense is much weaker than they have been in a long time. Kansas St., and coach Bill Snyder are 22-9-1 ATS on 11-14 days rest, including 10-0 ATS in their last 10. They are 7ppg better with this kind of rest, than they are on regular 6 days rest. Make the play on Kansas St.

NFL teams playing at home on Thursday are certainly advantaged, especially playing as a home favorite. Thursday NFL home favorites are 70-47-4 ATS, including 4-0 SU/ATS this year. When it comes down to the strength of the teams, when a below .500 team takes on a home team that is worse than .420, the Thursday home favorite is 12-2 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to New York to face the Giants, in what has to be considered a must win as the Bengals have stumbled out of the gate at 3-4-1. It is going to come down to who can do the better job defending a pair of top 6 passing offenses, as the defenses for both these teams is suspect at best. I like the idea of the Bengals defense, that does not have to worry a lot about the Giants running game which generates a paltry 68.2 yards per game. The Bengals have 25 sacks, and Eli Manning has been known for a lot of errant passes when under duress, and he will be tonight. The Bengals have also had ample time to get things fixed coming off their bye week, and it also allowed TE Tyler Eifert to heal, adding another piece to the Bengals passing attack. lewis has seen his team bounce back after a meltdown in the secondary, as they are 9-1 ATS after allowing 350+ in the air their last game. The extra rest, and more urgent status of the Bengals has them as the choice tonight. Make the play on Cincinnati.

Get ready for ugly. Not sure if it gets any uglier than the San Francisco 49ers right now. This team is a total mess. We are not looking for or asking for them to win however, and that is what is important, we are asking them to be within 2 TD's. History points us to this: teams that have lost at least 6 straight games, playing as a road dog in November, are 37-11 ATS, including 12-1 ATS getting 12.5 points or more, covering by 9ppg. Make the play on SF.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost and failed to cover in 3 straight games. That has happened just 7 times since 1996, so this team at 4-4 is appearing to be in trouble. Dallas is clicking on all cylinders right now, and have been the best team in the NFL, with a balanced attack. There is roughly 100 yards a game from the line of scrimmage between these teams, in favor of Dallas, and the usually reliable Steeler defense has been below the league average on the season. Dallas has out-gained each of their last 6 opponents, and the only thing keeping the line down here is it is the Steelers. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in the last 3 years as road chalk, and simply are a much better team. Make the play on Dallas.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost and failed to cover in 3 straight games. That has happened just 7 times since 1996, so this team at 4-4 is appearing to be in trouble. Dallas is clicking on all cylinders right now, and have been the best team in the NFL, with a balanced attack. There is roughly 100 yards a game from the line of scrimmage between these teams, in favor of Dallas, and the usually reliable Steeler defense has been below the league average on the season. Dallas has out-gained each of their last 6 opponents, and the only thing keeping the line down here is it is the Steelers. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in the last 3 years as road chalk, and simply are a much better team. Make the play on Dallas.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were supposed to turn the corner this season, but at 2-6, the Jags have not gotten off to the start they would have hoped for. QB Blake Bortles appeared to be heading for stardom, after throwing 35 TD passes a year ago, but has just 14 this season. The INT's at 18 last year needed to be cleaned up, but they haven't, as he has 10 already. The Jags are scoring 4.4ppg less than a year ago. Houston has had a solid defense for several years, and the feeling was Brock Osweiler was going to put them over the top offensively. That has not come close to happening with Houston averaging 17.1ppg. neither of these teams can sustain drives, neither throw the ball well. This one is coming down to field position, with limited offensive potential. Make the play on the under.

The New Orleans Saints have had 2 straight losing seasons for the first time since 1999. They opened the season a dreadful 0-3 and appeared to be heading for disaster. Two of those losses were by 1 point and 3 points, and they have since gone 4-1, and covered 5 straight games. Denver has struggled against the run, and their defense was on the field for 80 snaps last week vs Oakland and are facing a Saints team that has suddenly found a ground game, generating 100+ yards in 3 straight games. It is the first time they have done so since week 11 of 2014. The Saints own a 23-13 ATS mark in their last 36 vs the AFC. Denver at 6-3, started 3-0 but has been just 2-3 since, barely generating 20ppg. The Saints are +26 yards a game better than their opponents, and Denver just +11. The Saints have out-gained their last 4 opponents, while Denver has been out-gained in their last 2. Make the play on Denver.

The Green Bay Packers were thought to be a Super Bowl contender, but at 4-4, they are in need of a win just to continue to have a chance at making the playoffs. The Packers played 2 weeks ago without 10 starters, and injuries have played a huge role in the 4-4 record. That injury list is shrinking, and the Packers should come to Tennessee a healthier team, and a focused one. Tennessee at 4-5 has gotten some good things from 2nd year QB Marcus Mariota, but he continues to cost his team with 8 INT's and multiple fumbles, and it is holding this team back. He has struggled at home, especially as a dog where he is 0-6 SU,and just 1-5 ATS. Aaron Rodgers is 25-12 ATS in his career as a favorite or PK up to -6.5. Make the play on Green Bay.

San Diego St. is improving every week, and for the last 2 years, their defense has dominated opponents. This is now a rising program, one that has won 7 or more games for 7 straight seasons. The Aztecs won 11 games a year ago, the most in program history, and at 8-1 they are ready to challenge that mark with a better 2016. They are improved on both sides of the ball, upping their offensive scoring from 32.4 to 35.8, and defending even better allowing 18.9ppg a year ago, to 15.1ppg this season, but the real story to the defense is the fact that they have allowed 5.2ppg in their last 5, and the Nevada offense is one of the worst in the FBS at 22.9ppg. The defense is as bad as the offense, and San Diego St. has a chance to pitch a shutout here. San Diego St. is 16-0 SU and 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games, winning by combined scores of 35.2-10.1 or 25ppg. They have won the 3 games where they have been favored by more than 17 by an average score of 45-2! This game also fits a situation that is 30-4 ATS with a subset which is 21-0 ATS, make the play on San Diego

The records are similar in this game, with Colorado St. coming in at 5-4, and Air Force at 6-3. One big difference is the fact that Colorado St. has been playing the bottom of the conference against Fresno St. (1-9), UNLV (3-6), and Utah St. (T3-6). That is 3 of their 5 wins, and the other was vs N. Colorado as well as UT San Antonio. Things also took a step back when QB Colin Hill was lost for the season, and his replacement Nick Stevens has thrown for nearly 2 yards less per pass attempt, and neither are good runners. Air Force has wins over Army and Navy, and have the better team on both sides of the ball and playing at home as well, where they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16. Make the play on Air Force.

There are simply few teams that are better from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball than Michigan. Iowa shocked almost everyone when they took a relatively easy schedule all the way to an unbeaten season at 12-0. They did not face Michigan St. or Ohio St. last year in the regular season. The problem is when they got to the Big-10 Championship game they lost to Michigan St., and could not stand up to Stanford in the Rose Bowl where they lost 45-16. It says a lot about how fortunate, and lucky last season was, and since going 12-0 they are actually a very ordinary 5-6, outscoring opponents by a scant 1.2ppg. This team is showing the visible signs of wear and tear as their last 2 were against Wisconsin and Penn St. The defense allowed 1,022 yards in the 2 games. Michigan is poised to come out big, and will likely remain unbeaten until their finale at Ohio St. Michigan has allowed 8 points or less in 4 of their last 5 contests, and 10 times in 2 seasons under Harbaugh, opponents have failed to get to 10. Michigan fits a 30-5 ATS situation, make the play on Michigan.

LA Tech may have the best offense in the country for a team that is not from a power-5 conference. The Bull Dogs are good over land as well as in the air, and also defend the run very well, and UTSA is not a very good passing team. The Bull Dogs are getting better as the season goes on, as they have won 6 straight games by an average margin of 21.3ppg, and have averaged over 52ppg in the process. UTSA has some misleading stats, and a lot has to do with the bounces, as they have had 4 games where their opponent has committed 3 turnovers or more. That will not likely be the case here as LA Tech has turned the ball over more than 1 time just once all season. Texas San Antonio also fits a very negative 49-104 ATS situation, and I'm not going against that. Make the play on LA Tech.

The Army Black Knights will travel to San Antonio, Texas to take on the Irish of Notre Dame. The Army is 0-7 SU against Notre Dame since 1980, but this may be one of their best chances. The game will be played in Texas, and that has been a haven for covering for Army. The Army has dozens of football recruits on their roster from Texas, and coaches say it is the most intense week of practice, as a lot of these kids try to make the travel squad. Parents of players often have a barbecue for players, and they often get to see friends and family, something that doesn't happen often if your at a military academy. Army already went to Texas once this year beating UTEP 66-14. The Army has a very good defense, and run the option, which keeps them in games vs better teams, and the record in Texas is 14-1 ATS. Notre Dame is 3-6 and having a poor season, and can hardly seeing them bringing a whole lot to this game. Make the play on Army.

This game fits a situation that is 139-91 ATS, plays on certain teams off a bye as a dog. Make the play on UNLV.

This will be a huge night for fans at Doak Campbell, as the Noles have not played a Friday Night home game in forever. The atmosphere will be electric. I think there is a lot of hidden value in this game, as the BC offense is going nowhere in this game, and the defense is vastly over-rated, and here is why. The Eagles have faced 5 opponents that have an offensive rank of 64-114 (bottom half of the FBS), and on top of that add Wagner. Boston College held these teams to 40 rushing yards on 28 attempts, and 135 passing yards on 135 attempts. Combined 68 plays for 175 total yards, 2.57 yards per play, and out-scored them 27.6-10.2, and they are 4-1 SU/ATS in the 5 games. They have played 4 games vs teams that rank 1-45 on offense. These teams have run for 190 yards on 38 attempts, and passed for 318 yards on 30 attempts, or 68 plays for 508 yards, at 7.5 yards per play. The average score has been 46.2-9.2. Florida St. has a very good offense, and while the defense is not up to speed with past Seminole defenses, it is more than equipped to handle a brutal BC offense. This game has major blowout written all over it. Make the play on Florida St.

Georgia Southern has only been in the FBS since the start of the 2014 season. They made a big splash winning 9 games in each of their first 2 seasons, but are not the same team this year. They run out of the triple option, but don't have the same caliber of players to run it this year. The 2014 season saw them at 53-383 per game on the ground, last year 56-363, but this year just 54-245. They have eroded 140ypg since 2014, and if you extract a game vs Savannah St. it drops to 222 ypg this year. They have averaged just 23.4ppg vs FBS opponents. LA Lafayette has a very poor offense, that has generated 13.3ppg in their last 3, but the one thing they do well is defend the run, allowing 3.1 ypa. LA Lafayayette runs 60% of the time, and Georgia Southern 73% of the time, so the ball will be on the ground a lot here burning clock. Since 2008 when a dog averages 125+ rushing yards per game, and playing to a total of 49 or less, the under is 519-367. Make the play on the under.(27-11 on Thursday games).

The W. Michigan Broncos at 9-0 on the season, are now the only unbeaten team from outside the power-5 conferences. They hold their own fate to get a G5 bid into a major Bowl game. They have won each of their last 8 games by double-digits, but that tends to start working against a team, especially as a road favorite. Teams 8-0 or better that won 8 straight by 10+ points, as road favorites from -7 to -24 are a woeful 4-17 ATS. It is basically due to the fact odds makers over-price them in anticipation of the public riding the "high horse." Kent St. is down to their 3rd QB, converted from RB, in Nick Holley. Holley has actually been a slight upgrade completing passes for 6.3 yards per attempt compared to the 5.3 by Mylik Mitchell. Holley of corse is a runner and has generated 9 TD's on the ground. Make the play on Kent St.

The Eastern Michigan Eagles joined the FBS in 1990, and it has been a most unpleasant journey, but there are signs of change in the air. E. Michigan has not won more than 6 games since joining, and here they are at 5-4 with 3 to play, and amazingly, will be Bowl eligible with just 1 win in their last 3 games. Coach Chris Creighton took over an impossible task, and after a couple of years struggling, he is starting to change the culture here, and his recruiting classes are an upgrade so the Eagles are now a competitive team in the MAC, and no longer a punching bag for opponents. The Eagles have lost the services of QB Todd Porter, but he was erratic, with 7 TD's and 9 INT's. Replacement Brogan Roback has been his equal in terms of completion percentage and yards per attempt, but much less prone to turning the ball over, with 10 TD's and just 3 INT's. While he is not a threat to run, as Porter was, the running numbers by Porter were better, but pedestrian at best, and I don't see it as a factor here. The best part of the EMU offense is the passing game, and against a very below average Cardinal back 7, they will find success in the air. Ball St. runs the ball pretty well, but EMU is a tick above the average of their opponents success on the ground, and could keep Ball St. behind the chains enough to have an advantage. EMU has been bad for so long, there is some line value here, and Ball St. is 0-10 SU in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Looking at Ball St. over the last 2 years, They have 2 wins vs FCS teams, and their opponents records are 10-41 combined over the last 2 years in their other 5 wins, and none of those teams finished the season with more than 3 wins. They are now 0-8 ATS following a conference loss of 10 or more points. QB Riley Neal is suffering from a knee injury, and will play, but if something happens, back up, Jack Milas is a tremendous downgrade. Make the play on E. Michigan.

the Seattle Seahawks can be nasty on defense, and they will be tested by a strong Bill's ground game, that should have LeSean McCoy back for this one. Russell Wilson has had a a lot of injury issues this season, but appears to be heeling, and pete Carroll called out the offense this week, to get things going. I think you may see a more mobile Wilson, and some downfield passes to open up the offense tonight. The Seattle defense has allowed over 360 yards to their opponents in each of the last 3 games, and that is the first time that has occurred since December 6, 2009. Monday Night inter conference games that have a winning road team against a .500 or less home team, have seen the total go 9-0 to the over in the last 9, all the waay back to 1990. Make the play on the over.

The Green Bay packers have suffered so many injuries, it is a miracle they are 4-3 on the season. They went to Atlanta without top two running backs (Eddie Lacy and James Starks), top three corner backs (Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins), two of their wide receivers (Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery), premier defender (Clay Matthews) and their primary tight end (Jared Cook), and lost by just a single point. What they still have is a suddenly rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers who over the last 2 weeks, is third in passer rating, second in completions and first in touchdown passes. The bad news for Indy is they rank 31st vs the pass. This is a crossroads game for Green Bay, as after this they head to the road for 3 straight games, and need to be 5-3 not 4-4, or their playoff watch will go on the critical list. Make the play on G

Watching New Orleans QB Drew Brees carve up the stout defense of the Seattle Seahawks has bettors rushing to the betting window as if they know the final score in this one. The parade includes over 80% of the action on the Saints. The Saints are 3-4, and every game is a nail biter, as they have seen final margins of 1,3,1,3,5, and 6 points, and a loss of 13 as well. The Niners have dropped 6 straight, with a defense that has allowed 33 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games, so how do they stop Drew Brees? Well, for starters, the Saints are off of a huge win at home vs Seattle. Secondly, Brees is not exactly automatic as a road favorite, where he is 8-14 ATS in his last 22 games in this spot. Colin Kaepernick is 5-0 ATS with high totals (48.5-55.5 in his career, and is 3-0 ATS in his career vs New Orleans. brees and New Orleans are vastly different on the road, where in his last 45 road games, they average 23.5ppg, vs over 30ppg at home. Looks ugly, but it isn't. Make the play on San Francisco.

The bloom has come off the rose for the Minnesota Vikings, and QB Sam Bradford. The Vikings opened the season at 5-0 and appeared to be headed for a great season. There have been 6 teams start the NFL season at 5-0, only to lose their next 2, and 3 of those lost the next one as well. Minnesota is 31st in yards generated on offense per game, and when the defense doesn't score, they are in a battle. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford, much maligned for the great share of his career, is finally meeting expectations. He has a passer rating over 100, and has thrown 16 TD passes to just 4 INT's. Bradford is 0-2 vs Detroit in his career with a passer rating of 60. he has been unable to move the offense. The Lions shocking numbers reveal they have gone a full NFL schedule's worth of games (16), without losing by more than 7 points, and are a playoff worthy 10-6 SU in those 16 games. Make the play on Detroit.

The Kansas City Chiefs easily dispatched the Indianapolis Colts on the road last week 30-14, marging their 3rd straight win. Nick Foles is in charge of the offense until Alex Smith recovers from a concussion. There is a reason Foles is a back up, as he is 21-20 SU in his career as a starter, with an 88.5 passer rating, but just 4-7 last year with a 67 passer rating, with 7 TD's and 10 INT's. Those are some ugly numbers, and Jacksonville, while being just 2-5, has actually been a tick better than KC from the line of scrimmage this year. The Chiefs have forced 14 turnovers in their last 4 wins, and at least 2 in all of them, and that will not keep up, and is disguising what looks like a very good team at 5-2, that is a very average team. Jacksonville has made 10 turnovers in their last 4 losses, or 2.5 a game, and makes an average team look poor. The line is too high here, as these teams are about even. Make the play on Jacksonville.

This is always a blood bath, as these teams hate each other, and LSU would love nothing more than to put a chink in the Alabama National Championship hopes, but that is no small order. Ed Orgeron finds himself in a good spot. The man could not recruit at Ole Miss, and his 3 years there were a disaster, and he went 3-21 in his 24 SEC games. He has been proven to be a good coach when it comes to X's and O's, when he has someone elses gifted players. He went 6-1 in the Pac-12 as an interim, and he has LSU at 3-0, replacing Les Miles as an interim once again. Many ways, Orgeron has followed a path similar to Pete Carroll, and he takes something from that. He will need everything he has here to beat Alabama, but if this goes like the 4 meetings against Saban's troops in Baton Rouge it is going to be a dog fight, as none have ended with a margin of more than 7 points. Alabama is scoring 10.5ppg without its offense on the field, which is stunningly amazing unto itself, but despite of that they have had some close calls vs the best teams on their schedule, and right now, Orgeron has his LSU team playing at an extremely high level. Defensively, the Tigers are as close to Alabama as anyone in the country, and offensively they are pretty even right now. The fact is, since the start of the 2000 season, LSU has lost just 8 games at home by more than a TD, and the Tide, in all their glory has only managed to do it 1 time. The fact is, since October 10th, 2009, the Tigers have only lost here 1 time by more than 7 points. LSU looks like they are getting everything out of themselves since Orgeron took over, and I would not be surprised if they win this game outright. Make the play on LSU.

I have a lot of situations, but few I play blindly, but this one is 53-5 ATS with a 6.2 z-score, and play these games blindly as they arise. The play in this game is on Tulsa.

Life was painful at W. Kentucky, when they started the transition into the FBS in 2008. The first 3 years saw this team go 3-33 straight up in their first 3 years. They began a move forward in 2011 winning 7 games, and have had a winning team since. Former Louisville QB, Jeff Brohm took over in 2014 and the program took another leap forward, as they are 26-10, with 2 Bowl wins, and another bowl bid has been secured this year. The Hilltoppers passing game is elite, at 9.9 yards per attempt, and the offense has really gotten t going at 51.4ppg the last 5 contests. FIU is 45-97 SU lifetime in the FBS, and has never really gotten things going. The fact is they are just 10-56 SU vs a team that is .440 or better all-time. 25-39-2 ATS vs those teams. They have a worse than average pass defense, and their passing offense is far below average, and playing from behind, and having to throw the ball is not in their best interests. This is a blowout, make the play on W. Kentucky.

The South Carolina Gamecocks are at 4-4, saw a streak of 11 straight seasons at .500 or better come to an end a year ago, when they finished 3-9, their fewest wins since 1999. They may look like an improved team, but not as much as you would think. They have not beaten anyone by more than 6 points, and in their last 3 wins they had a turnover advantage of +9, and they were out-gained from the line of scrimmage in all 3 of those games. Missouri runs the ball very well, and that has been the weakness of the SC defense, as they do defend the pass pretty well. Perhaps the most telling story here is teams, such as Missouri, that have lost at least 4 straight, both against SU/ATS, and are a road dog of 5 or less in a conference game are 17-9 SU and 18-8 ATS. Make the play on Missouri.

This may be the ugliest game on the schedule this week. Florida Atlantic is 0-7 SU vs FBS teams this season, and Rice is 0-7 SU vs the FBS this season, so something has to give here. These teams boh enter this game with 1 win on the season, and in a game between 1 win teams from game number 8 out, the home team is 18-2 ATS, when facing a road team on regular 6 days rest, that is off a loss by 15 or more points. This is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1995. Make the play on Rice.

The Louisville Cardinals still entertain thoughts of playing for a National Championship at 7-1. They got a big scare last week, and I think that will serve as a wake up call here. The Cards are elite on both sides of the ball, and the pathetic BC offense has no chance in this game. We have seen the Eagles defensively dominate average to weak offenses on the season, and the stats say they are one of the nations best stop units, until you look at the 2 games where they played elite offenses, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, and they lost those 2 games by a combined 95 points, allowing 52.5ppg, and almost 500 yards a game. I see something similar playing out here, as the BC offense scored a grand total of 10 points on less than 200 yards a game. Ugly start to finish, make the play on Louisville.

It has not been a good year for the UCLA Bruins, who at 3-5 will have to scramble to become Bowl eligible. Things have gotten worse when QB Josh Rosen went down with an injury. Rosen had 10 TD's to 5 INT's, and threw for 8.3 yards per attempt. Mike Fafaul has taken over, and he has completed a lower percentage, and has 8 INT's already, and the Bruins have gone from an above average 8.3 yards per pass attempt to 6.4. That is a huge drop, and the Colorado defense is strong, and getting stronger, while the offense and passing game are generating 8.4 yards per attempt. Buff's allowing just 12ppg in last 4, have the edge here on offense, on defense, and at home, and now hold destiny in their own hands to reach the Pac-12 Conference Championship. Make the play on Colorado.

I like looking at games where the coaches on one side used to coach the opponent they are facing. Both Buc's head coach Dirk Koetter, and Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith are from Atlanta, but are now against them. They have a pretty good idea what each Falcon's player is, and that proved out, with an opening season 31-24 win in Atlanta. One player, and a crucial one, is Atlanta WR Julio Jones who will play, but is nursing a knee injury. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is having his best year, with 19 TD's and just 4 INT's, but he has struggled in Tampa where he is 1-3 ATS, and getting out-scored by the Bucs in the 4 games. (6 TD's, 5 INT's). Meanwhile Jameis Winston is quietly 3-0 SU/ATS vs Atlanta, with a passer rating of over 100. The public has chimed in on this game, and overwhelmingly on the Falcons at over 80%, and that seldom is a desirable place to be. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

I have a very specific metric that is based on offense vs defense, applied to road favorites, that fits into this game perfectly. While it doesn`t come up a lot, it has projected 87.7 total points in this game. Make the play on the over.

The Minnesota Vikings saw their 5-0 record evaporate last week vs the Eagles. The Vikings who have feasted with their excellent defense all season, saw special teams and a careless offense bite them in the back last week. The Minnesota offense has gotten career numbers from back-up QB Sam Bradford, but is he coming back to reality? The numbers are good, he has had the defense bail him out, but if he regresses back to his career numbers the defense is going to have to be even better. Chicago is 1-6 on the season, has covered just 1 game, so why here? Jay Cutler should return and stabilize the offense here. Bradford has 1 career start vs Chicago, and a 39 passer rating in that game, losing 23-6. The Bears have been a home dog to the Vikings 9 times since 1998, and have won 5 outright, and are 7-2 ATS. The 2 biggest lines were +7 and +8 and they won both outright. This has been a house of horrors for Minnesota as they are 2-13 here last 15 trips, and 4-11 ATS. Line has averaged -1.3 in the 15 games, Bears have out-scored them by 9ppg. Public is 85% invested on Minnesota, and that is a death sentence. Make the play on Chicago.

No one could of expected that when Tony Romo went down, 4th round draft choice Dak Prescott would turn out to be better than Romo. The same can be said for Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz, but for Wentz and the Eagles, the bloom is starting to come off the rose a bit. The Eagles are off a huge upset in a turnover plagued game, and special teams, and solid defense led the Eagles to a big win over Minnesota. Wentz has seen his passer rating slip to 92.3, and he has thrown 3 INT's in his last 2 games, after throwing 0 in his first 4. Prescott is still packing a QB rating of over 100, and has thrown just 1 INT all season. The Dallas offense is balanced as another rookie, Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for over 700 yards at 5.1 yards a clip. Wentz is just 27-50 for 283 yards in his last 2 gamesThe Dallas defense has become vastly underrated as they have held 4 straight opponents to 17 points or less, and none of their 6 opponents have topped 23. Dallas also fits a situation that is 57-27 ATS, make the play on Dallas.

This is going to sound like a broken record, but the Green Bay Packers are not a very good team. Last year all the reasons pointed to the absence of Jordy Nelson, and why Aaron Rodgers was having one of his worst years. Things have not changed with Nelson back in the fold, in fact Rodgers numbers so far this year are worse than a year ago. Lacey, and Starks are both out with injuries, and Ty Montgomery is now the Packer's running back. The Green Bay offense is actually below average, and that is before the injuries. Bigger problems lie on the otherside of the ball, as the below average Packer pass defense takes on Matt Ryan. The Atlanta passing attack is the best in the league at 9.2 yards per attempt, and Ryan's 113.6 passer rating is the leagues best. Rodgers threw the ball 56 times last week with no running game to speak of, so the numbers looked big, but he did so at less than 6 yards per attempt which is very much below average, especially for him, but it has become the norm for this Packer offense. Green Bay has not been on the road since September 18th, well over a month, and this is a tough match up. Make the play on Atlanta.

The San Diego Chargers won just 4 games a year ago, finishing 3-12 in their final 15 games. They are off to a 3-4 start this season, and certainly the optics of those numbers make them a hard team for bettors to embrace. When you dig into the reality, this is a team that could actually be 7-0, as the Chargers have held 3rd quarter leads in all 4 of their losses, by 2 to 21 points. they are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games despite making 8 turnovers, and in their last 13 overall they are 10-3 ATS, including 7-1 ATS, and have not lost a road game within that stretch by more than 1 possession, in fact, they have lost just 1 game in the last 13 by more than 1 possession. The Chargers despite being 5-8 SU in those 13 games have out-scored those 13 opponents by +0.9ppg. Denver has had a lot of trouble against this team, especially at home where they are just 7-6 SU and 2-9-2 ATS in the last 13 here. Phil Rivers is 9-2 ATS vs the Broncos, and is 22-12 ATS in his last 34 starts as a road dog with a 96.2 passer rating. Denver has revenge but is 0-2 ATS vs the Chargers with same season revenge. The Broncos are getting the bulk of the action from the public, but the line is heading in the opposite direction. Make the play on San Diego.

I don't think many would believe this stat: The Detroit Lions have the 6th best record in the NFL since after November 1st of last year at 10-5. They are one of 2 NFL teams that have not lost a game over that 15 game period by more than 1 possession. The fact is, the Lions have either won, or been in every game they have played for the last year, and have a lot of hidden value here. The Texans held 5 of their last 9 opponents last year to 6 points or less, and their last 5 opponents this season have averaged 25.6ppg. Do you think they miss J.J. Watt? It is pretty obvious that he was the glue to the defense, whoch has become unglued. Bigger problem is their negative 6 turnover margin, and the fact they have not thrown for over 256 yards in any of their 6 games. Brock osweiller has been brutal with 8 INT's already and a 71 passer rating, while Matthew Stafford carries a 105.7 passer rating into this game, with 15 TD's and 4 INT's on the season. Detroit has been a team plagued by turnovers over the past several seasons, but just 5 on the season this year, and it is showing up in the win column. Make the play on Detroit.

The Cleveland Browns are off to a dreadful 0-7 start, and are now 0-10 going back to last season, and are the only win less team in the NFL. That will send bettors far away from wanting any part of this team. The truth is, that adds to the value of them here, and history shows that to be true. NFL teams are are 0-7 or worse, are 53-23-4 ATS covering just about 70% of the time. That hasn't melted away recently either, as they are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 occurrences. The jets own just 2 wins on the season, and after giving up on Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith started last week, and was lost for the year, so Fitzpatrick is back under center. These teams through 7 games are just about even here from the line of scrimmage, so beyond the records of the teams, Cleveland getting points at home here shows value in itself. The Browns should be better defensively as Joe Haden is set to return, and he is a difference maker in their secondary. Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine, and that is why he has drifted from team to team, and the Jets gave up on him this season, but have no choice but to turn things over to him again after the Smith injury. Make the play on Cleveland.

This game fits a totals situation based on negative ATS margin over the past several games. It is 53-116-6 O/U, and the play is on the under.

No team in the country has faced a more difficult schedule than Wisconsin. They have already played against LSU, Ohio St., Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan St. The offense has not done very well on a whole, but they have faced 3 teams with top 10 defenses on the season. There are signs the offense is improving as their last 2 games vs a pair of tough defenses, they generated 6.1 yards per play vs Ohio St., and 5.8 yards per play vs Iowa on the road. The Badger defense has been tested by potent offenses, such as Ohio St. and Michigan, as well as the potent ground game of LSU, and combined to hold those 3 to under 20ppg on average. Nebraska has a much less offense, and at 7-0 they are about to get a reality check. Nebraska has not faced a good defense all season, as their 7 opponents average ranking on defense is 86.3 out of 128 teams, making them a power-5 conference offense that has faced the worst defenses of any power-5 conference team. I think Nebraska is an illusion at 7-0, and also have Ohio St. on deck. Make the play on Wisconsin. Make the play on Wisconsin.

The Baylor Bears come into this game off having played just 1 games since October 1st. They are 6-0 on the season, but the schedule ranks as one of the worst in the country. The perspective can be shown by the fact that the Bears have been favored by a combined 176 points in their 6 games, or by just about 30 points per game. Texas has 3 losses by 7 points or less, and come in at just 3-4 on the season. The Horns have covered 7 of their last 8 at home, and have won 5 of their last 6 here SU, with the only loss by 3 points. They are 9-3 ATS as a home dog of 4 or less. Baylor has started 6-0 in each of the last 4 seasons, because they refuse to play any team out of the conference that can beat them. There 24-0 record turns to 14-7 from game 7 on. Despite the big numbers this is not close to the Baylor offense we have seen in the last 3 years. Texas has played a much tougher schedule. Road favorites off a bye that are unbeaten from game 6 out, and not a prohibitive favorite (less than -44), are 5-23 ATS since 1997. Going for the upset here, make the play on Texas.

The Ohio St. Buckeyes took a hit in their quest for a national title last week, with a loss at Penn St. I look for them to rebound in a big way this week vs Northwestern. Northwestern has not played at the Show since 2007, and their road history in this series is pathetic. The Buckeyes are 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS (one of the 2 ATS losses by half a point), and have been outscored 44.3 to 6.8. The Wildcats have scored 9 points or less here in 11 of the 12 games, with the Buckeyes average cover +12.73 ppg. urban Meyer has coached at Bowling Green, Utah, Florida, and now Ohio St., with very few losses in the regular season. His teams are 18-4-1 ATS off a loss, and as a large favorite of -16 or more his teams are 6-0-1 ATS after a loss. Make the play on Ohio St.

The USC Trojans were beaten soundly by Alabama in their opener, and it seemed to rattle this team. They have really been playing better every week over their last 4 games, and the stats bear that out. They are generating 6.2 yards per play on the season, but 7.3 in their last 4 games, and the defense allowing 5.4 yards per play on the season, is allowing just 5.0 in their last 4 games as well. The bottom line is this team on the season is 0.8 yards better per play but that has changed to 2.3 yards better over their last 4, and have become a hidden elite team, despite being 4-3. California has been rather average from the line of scrimmage, but score a lot because of their shear volume of plays (88 per contest on average). I think that volume will drop vs USC, while the USC offense and defense enjoy a distinct advantage at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. Make the play on USC.

Whenever 2 option teams go at it, they know how to defend each other, as they see it in practice every day. That has led to a 6-26 O/U mark when option teams face each other in the right situation. Make the play on the under.

The Sunday Night Football game should be a good one, with the Seattle Seahawks traveling to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. The Cards season has been on the line the last 2 weeks, and after a 1-3 start, they have evened things up at 3-3. Turnovers have been the plague of NFL teams always, but no team has been impacted by them more since the start of last season than Arizona. Arizona is 17-7 SU over the period, but 6 of the 7 losses have been due to a 3 or more turnover disadvantage, and they are 17-1 SU when their turnover margin is less than a negative 3. basically they have lost just 1 game when the deficit is less than 3 against them. The Seahawks stole a game at home vs Atlanta on a blown call, and come in at 4-1. perhaps we can take something from history here as well as a team off a better than 17 point MNF blowout win is 74-46 ATS in their next game, with a subset that is 32-2 ATS, covering 24 straight times back to 1994. Make the play on Arizona

The NY Jets offense got off to a healthy start, scoring 22 vs Cincinnati, and 37 vs Buffalo. It has all come apart since then, as the jets have managed just 36 points in their last 4 games. Turnovers have been a huge part in the demise, and on the season the jets stand at a woeful -11. Much of that lies in the hands of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who has thrown for 5 TD's and 11 INT's on the season, and a league low passer rating of 63.4. The Ravens have run the ball well, but have struggled through the air, but the Jets pass defense has been the worst in the league allowing 8.4 yards per attempt vs teams averaging 6.8. Baltimore also fits a 29-8 ATS situation. Make the play on Baltimore.

It is so difficult for a bettor to wrap around a team that is winless, and in the case of this game, that points to the Cleveland Browns, who are off to a brutal 0-6 start to their season. That typically means they are going to be given some padding on the point spread to entice some action on them, or at least deter action on their opponent the Cincinnati Bengals. The proof lies in the fact that once a team gets to 0-4 in the NFL, playing on them is 148-106-7 ATS or a winner 58.3% of the time. The Bengals are certainly not a team without issues, as indicated by their own 2-4 start. The culprit in this case is a defense that allowed more than 24 points in a game a year ago, that is averaging allowing more than that this season through 6 games. I pointed that out because the Browns offense has been better, and the clincher is this. A team getting to 20 points as a 10 point dog is 49-6-3 ATS, if they get to 17, they are 61-18-3 ATS, to 14 and they are 68-28-4 ATS. Odds makers have this one as 28-18. So by their own algorithms, they are saying Cleveland is the valued side by plenty here. Make the play on Cleveland.

The biggest surprise in NCAA Football this year, may be the fact that Washington St. has a better defense than they do offense, although the offense is still putting up a lot of points. The Cougars are 4-2 on the season, and after an opening season home loss to E. Washington, they went to Boise St. and lost by just 3. They have been perfect since, and have out-gained all 5 of their FBS opponents on the season, and have looked like the better team from the line of scrimmage in all 5 games. Arizona St. is a somewhat tainted 5-2 on the season. They have a pair of good wins vs California and UCLA, but were out-gained by the Bruins by 168 yards and by the Bears by 183 yards. The difference maker was UCLA committed 4 turnovers, and Cal 3. Washington St. ran the ball just 22.5 times a game on average in their first 2, but have since been running 35 times a game, and have become more balanced. They are the better team on both sides of the ball and should get a comfortable win here. Make the play on Washington St.

The Ole Miss Rebels have had a tough schedule, and a tough time handling it, as they come into this game a disappointing 3-3 on the season. They have the unenviable task of taking on LSU in a night game in Baton Rouge. The Tigers are 91-12 SU her their last 103, and half of the 12 losses came to Alabama and Florida. They are 42-2 SU here vs teams .500 or worse over the period, and currently have a 32 game home winning streak vs .500 teams or worse. The better news is Leonard Fournette will play here, and the Rebels have yielded 200+ yards on the ground in 4 of their 6 contests. Make the play on LSU.

Arkansas has played well this season, and a lot of that has been in the hands of QB Austin Allen. Where the Razorbacks have struggld is against better teams, that have competent, or elite running attacks. Against TCU, A&M, and Alabama, they game up a ridiculous 825 yards on 103 carries. Auburn is all about the run, in fact they put it on the ground 55 times a game, with success. The problem is, if you load up the box against them, they can get big plays, and average 9.0 yards per pass attempt, when Sean White throws the ball. I can see a lot of success here for Auburn, controlling the line of scrimmage, and the Tiger defense has been pretty elite allowing 5.1 yards per play to teams that average 6. Arkansas is in a woeful 2-31 ATS situation for this contest as well. Make the play on Auburn.

NEWS FLASH: Eastern Michigan is 5-2 coming into this game. That is a monumental leap by this team that has won 2 games or less in 6 of the last 7 seasons, and has not had a winning season since 1995. here is the problem. They have played a soft schedule, and have committed 13 turnovers, and forced 13. Their biggest road test was at Missouri, and the Tigers beat them silly 61-21, gaining 647 total yards, and Missouri isn't exactly an offensive force. They are 11-26-1 ATS vs teams over .600 if they are getting 21 or more points. W. Michigan has it going at 7-0, and the biggest reason is the maturation of already good QB Zack Terrell. Terrell is a 5th year senior, and has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his career, including 80 for TD's. He is completing over 70% of his passes, at 9.2 yards per attempt and has 17 TD passes, to 0 INT's, in fact the Broncos through 7 games have turned the ball over 1 time all season. No team since at least 1980 has entered game 8 with just 1 turnover on the season. The Bronco's are averaging 51ppg against teams that are not from a power-5 conference, and just shutout a potent Akron offense. Teams off a 35 or more point win cover 54% in their next game, including 56.4% if they are a home favorite. Teams off a 35+ point win, playing as a home favorite, after shutting out their last opponent to a line of less than -27 are 122-80-6 ATS. Make the play on W. Michigan.

This is a tough spot for Illinois new head coach Lovie Smith. I think in time he will make the Illini competitive, but that time is not now. Illiois has a modest offense, but when you have your starting QB Wes Lunt, who is uncertain to play after suffering a back injury last week, and his back up, Chase Grouch, who went down with a shoulder injury last week, and your facing an ultra elite defense, your in big trouble. Michigan can't be run on, so I'm not sure if Illinois can crack the scoreboard here. Then there is the Michigan offense, that has out-gained opponents by 257 yards per game, and full of play makers. It's amazing how fast Jim Harbough has turned Michigan, back into the Michigan of old, now 16-2 SU since losing his first game as head coach. Michigan is a player for a National Championship, and Harbough doesn't allow his players to let down. That is evidenced by the fact that most of his games have been blowouts, but opponents score 1.7ppg in the 4th, Michigan 10.1. No back door here, make the play on Michigan.

It has been a long time since Colorado has put a competitive team on the field, but at 5-2, they appear to be heading for their first winning season since 2005. This is a team that last won 6 or more games in the 2007 season. The Buffaloes two losses have come against USC, and Michigan. They last won at Stanford in 1990, so they will be coming here with purpose. meanwhile, the Stanford offense is poor, as the Cardinal has not scored more than 27 points all season, and average just 19ppg, and have just 1 first quarter TD on the season. Colorado has held 4 opponents to 16 points or less on the season, and with RB Christian McCaffrey still hobbling, and questionable, the Stanford offense should be easy to contain. QB Sefo Liufau is healthy again, and has been perfect with 6 TD's and 0 INT's on the season, completing 72% of his tosses. Colorado has a perfect balance on offense, with 16 scores in the air, and 16 on the ground. Make the play on Colorado.

It is always wise to look toward Kansas St. when Bill Snyder is on the sidelines. One thing for sure is the game has not passed him by, and his kids are ready every game, and execute to precision. This is a team that converts in the red-zone better than any other team in the country over the last 2 years, as they have come away from the red zone with points in 80 of their last 83 possessions. (96.3%). they are a perfect 28 for 28 this year (19 TD's). Where his team has been almost equally effective is covering point spreads, especially when coming off a loss, and playing at home, as long as he is not a -31 point favorite or more, and the opponent is less than .750. His squad is an amazing 26-4 ATS in this spot, with a subset that is 20-1 ATS. Kansas has been pretty ordinary on offense this year, but as usual, the numbers are much better at home, where they have out-gained opponents by 2 yards per play. Charlie Strong finds himself on the hot seat at 3-3 on the season, as this was supposed to be a big year for Texas. It almost always looks like Kansas St. is an ugly pick, and it looks that way here as well, but history says they almost always turn out to be the right side. Make the play on Kansas St.

There is not a lot of offensive weapons on the field for Uconn, a team averaging just 17.3ppg in the Bob Diaco era, which started in 2014. The Huskies have done a bit better this year at 20.1ppg, but still a very below average offense. Central Florida has rebounded nicely, and fast from a woeful 2015, and are off to a 3-3 start. They are 20.4ppg better on offense, and 12.7ppg better on defense vs a year ago, but they are coming from a long distance from respectability. UCF has been pretty good defending the run, and so has Uconn, and that will take on extra importance here. The weather in E. Hartford, is not going to favor the kicking game or the passing game, as winds will be gusting up to 35 MPH, and a lot of rain is expected prior to kick off, so it could be a sloppy field as well. Bob Diaco has been known to get very conservative in poor weather conditions, and regardless, I think there will be a lot of running the ball here, against defenses expecting the run, that have handled opposing running attacks at an above average rate on the season. My NCAAF TOTAL OF THE MONTH, is on the UNDER.

This is strictly a situational play. This game fits a totals situation that is 53-115 O/U. Make the play on the under.

The Indianapolis Colts offense has generated 20 points or more in all 5 of their games, but the defense has allowed 22 or more, and last week coughed up over 500 yards to a pedestrian Bears offense. The problem here is the Colts, while scoring at a decent clip, have an average offense from the line of scrimmage, that will be tested by a Houston back 7 that has been significantly above average on the season. Since most of the Indianapolis offense comes in the air, as they have yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season, Houston will be ready for the passing game. No team has generated more than 351 yards on the Houston defense this season, and just 1 team has gotten 200+ yards on their secondary. The problem for Houston is sustaining drives, and their lackluster passing attack, isn't good enough to take advantage of a weak Colts secondary. Andrew Luck has certainly taken care of business at home in his career, but as a road dog he is just 7-13 ATS with a passer rating of a woeful 68.1, with 27 TD's and 33 INT's, generating just 18.6ppg. This game also fits a super total situation, one that has generated a mark of 41-107 O/U, and I'm not going to buck that. Make the play on the under.

als ever since the Ice Bowl, many years ago. This once again becomes a battle of teams that think they have the recipe to take it all the way to a Championship. Many thought that Jordy Nelson was the reason Aaron Rodgers struggled last year, and that his return would immediately return the Green Bay offense to elite status. That certainly has not been the case this season so far. Rodgers threw for a career low 6.6 yards per attempt a year ago, but has been even worse this year, at 6.3. His completion percentage is way down at a significantly below average 56.1%. Something is wrong with Rodgers, as he is missing open receivers weekly, and this has gone on now for 14 games, dating back to last year. What has been good for Green Bay is the run defense, allowing 1.99 yards per carry. here is the problem with that. Green Bay has faced Jacksonville, Minnesota, Detroit, and the Giants. Those 4 teams combine to average being the 5th worst rushing teams in the NFL. That ranking shows the Packers having faced the worst rushing teams in the league, and enter Dallas and Ezekiel Elliot and his 109-546 on the season, on the ground. Couple that with the Packer's porous secondary, and QB Dak Prescott, and you have a huge mismatch. If you look at the QB achievements for the year, Prescott is more like the old Rodgers than Rodgers himself, having 0 INT's in 155 attempts. Right now the Packers are very over-rated, and their apparent strength against the run is an illusion, and will be exploited. Dallas has been a funny team as they are 26-41-1 ATS as a favorite, and 30-18-1 ATS as a dog since the start of the 2009 season and 19-8 ATS as a dog of more than 3. First time in this role this season, make the play on Dallas.

No one likes a loser, and the Cleveland Browns are out of the gate at 0-5, but that is where a lot of the value is coming from. Backing a win less team is not in the stomach of most bettor's but the value often is. More on that at the end. Then there is Tennessee. The Titans have been favored in just 2 of their last 21 games coming into this one, and the largest favorite was -3.5. They have been favored by -7 or more 1 time in their last 86 games, and that didn't turn out too well, as they lost to Jacksonville at -12. The Browns are 0-5, but were up 20-2 on Baltimore before losing their QB. They missed 3 FG's vs Miami, that would have turned the game, and a bad call vs Washington cost them the game winning drive. I just don't see Tennessee as a TD favorite out of nowhere. teams without a win on the season and at least 3 losses as road dogs, and getting more than 4 points are 60-28 ATS! hard to buck the contrarian NFL situation, that usually comes through. Make the play on Cleveland.

If you consider the fact that the Baltimore Ravens last 21 games outside of a pair of consecutive blowout losses last year, have otherwise played to a one possession final score in their other 19 games. Taking points with a team like this has to be looked at closely, because it is almost a given, they will have a chance to win late. The Ravens hope that firing offensive coordinator Marc Trestman has the same results as when the Buffalo Bills fired and hired a new OC. The big issue for the Giants is the fact they have just 4 sacks on the season, and Flacco has thrown 216 times, an NFL so far this year. This is a good spot for the Ravens as 3-2 teams that have suffered both their losses in their last 2 games are 15-8-1 ATS, including 7-2-1 ATS as a road dog. The Ravens defense will be the best unit on the field in this game, and Eli Manning in 3 starts against the Ravens has a passer rating of a woeful 51, averaging just 10ppg, with just 110 passing yards per contest. Make the play on Baltimore.

The idea behind sports betting is to find where the bias is. Bias comes in many forms, but for addressing the card today we have a long term total bias situation in play here. Whenever you have two teams playing, that have played more overs than unders in the regular season, we have a totals bias to the over. This does not work the other way around, with 2 under teams, simply because the public has an innate tendency to bet over. Now if we capture, and handicap the totals, avoiding extremes, we have the following: Play under in any NFL regular season game when both teams have each played more games resulting in over the total, than under the total, if the total is in line with mainstream NFL totals, not extremes (greater than 37 and less than 53). The result is:

263-360-10 O/U or 57.8% playing under. Make the play on the under in this contest.

It has been a strong debut for Eagle`s rookie QB Carson Wentz. he and fellow rookie QB Dak Prescott of Dallas have transformed the NFC East from a bad division, with just the 9-7 Redskins a year ago making the playoffs, to one of the best divisions in the NFL this year. Washington swept the Eagles a year ago, but with new coach and QB, and rejuvenated defense the Eagles are vastly improved team. Wentz has been great at taking care of the football with just 1 INT in 135 attempts, and since turnovers are almost always decisive, he is a strong reason why the Eagles are 3-1. It is the Eagles defense allowing just 5.3 yards per play to a schedule of opponents that gain 6.1, that has been the biggest improvement. The Redskins weakness has been on defense especially stopping the run, and Philadelphia will look to exploit that as they have rushed for 100 yards or more in all 4 games on the season. Washington has struggled offensively in their last generating 315 yards or less in both games, and it will be tough getting it going vs the Eagles defense. Road teams in an anticipated competitive game from 3 to -3 playing on grass off a road loss, without a bye are 68-24-4 ATS in their last 96 occurrences. Tough to buck those impressive numbers. Make the play on Philadelphia.

It certainly has not been the start each of these teams had expected, with Stanford at 3-2, and off a pair of blowout losses, and Notre Dame, considered to be a top 10 team, now at 2-4. Stanford has lost their last 2 games by a combined 64 points, and you have to go all the way back to 2007 since they lost 2 consecutive games by 56 points or more. The fact is since 1980, the Cardinal have lost consecutive games by 56 or ore total points and they have gone 4-3 SU to an average line of +16.5! They are also 6-1 ATS. I expect a huge rebound here in this contest. It is also just the 5th time since 1980 they have allowed 40+ points in back-to-back games, and they are 4-0 ATS in the first 4. Notre Dame played in the driving rain, mud, and wind last week at NC State. Notre Dame has beaten just Nevada and Syracuse on the season, and with 4 games left vs strong opponents, the Irish are likely to fall short of a Bowl bid this season. I think the wrong team is favored here, and the play is on Stanford.

This game fits a situation, that is based in part in a match up of underachieving teams, that has posted a 53-112-6 O/U mark. The play is on the under.

Rice has been up and down in football, as they have been very good at times, and also very bad at other times. The trend for this team is significantly down, as the Owls have opened 0-5, have won less games each of the past 2 seasons, and will make that 3 this year. The reason I like this game, is the Rice secondary is allowing 12 yards per attempt in the air, the worst such mark in NCAA Football. UTSA junior QB Dalton Sturm has thrown for 976 yards on the season at 8.6 yards per attempt. This is a decisive match up for the Road Runners, while Rice passes for just 5.3 yards per attempt. Make the play on Texas San Antonio.

While the Miami Florida Hurricanes suffered a tough 1 point loss to in state rival Florida St. last week, I still have this team as one of the best from the line of scrimmage in NCAA Football, and expec a big rebound this week. North Carolina was taken out brutally by Virginia Tech last week 34-3. This team has a bigger reputation that the level of talent and are just 3-4 SU in their last 7 games, vs FBS competition. Miami was beaten to a pulp at NC last year where they gave up 59 points to the Heels. Teams that are home favorites off a 1 point loss cover 56.5% in their next game, and 64.2% if favored by 6 to 11 points. Home teams revenging a road loss cover 54% of the time. These teams are far apart in talent, and I expect Miami to play with a chip on their shoulder, as they have had this game circled since spring practice. Make the play on Miami,Fla.

After winning an average of 11 games a year for 6 years, the N. Illinois Huskies are off to a precarious 1-5 start, including a loss at home to W. Illinois. their problems have been getting out of the ate, as they have been punished in the 1st quarter, where they have lost by a combined score of 17-69, while getting outscored by just 6 total points after the 1st quarter. C. Michigan opened the season at 3-0, and had a huge upset on the road at Oklahoma St. They have been a different team since starting 3-0, as they are 1-2 in their last 3, beating Ball St. by just 3, as a 12 point favorite. They have spent their last 2 at home, and this will be on the road. he line here looks suspicious, but N. Illinois has a pedigree to knock off a C. Michigan team that has lost its way. Make the play on N. Illinois.

Pure and simple, Toledo has one of the best passing attacks in NCAAF, and Bowling Green can't throw the ball, nor defend the pass, and have given up 70+ twice this season. This may be the 3rd. Make the play on Toledo.

There are simply not a lot of teams that run the triple option, but Saturday a pair that do will meet as Georgia Southern takes on Georgia Tech. The theory of course, is these teams practice against it every single day of practice, so understanding the system in great detail, would have a team more prepared to be effective defensively against it, than a typical team. When a pair of triple option teams meet, and the line is higher than -7, the result has been 2-17 O/U in these games, covering the under by a whooping 11.32ppg. These teams that rush all the time for averages of 5 yards to 7 yards per carry, have been 96.4 carries for 407.1 total yards or just 4.22 yards per carry, well below their norms. Make the play on the under.

This one sets up nicely for the San Diego St. Aztecs. They enter the game at 4-1, with the lone loss to S. Alabama, an inexcusable loss, where everything went wrong. The Aztecs held S. Alabama to 5.4 yards per play, but allowed 42 points, because of a fumble return of 80 yards, a broken coverage 79 yard TD pass, a 39 yard TD pass, and a negative turnover margin. If you take away the 2 big plays, the Jaguars managed just 3.6 yards per play. The stats, and that loss are keeping this team from being 5-0, and a much different picture here. RB Donnel Pumphrey is running for a career high 6.9 yards per attempt. Pumphrey is rising on the career record for rushing yards held by Ron Dayne of Wisconsin with 6,397 yards. Pumphrey has 5,163, and will have a shot at the record barring injury. Fresno St. is an opportunity for him to have a huge game, as they have allowed 1,318 rushing yards to Nebraska, Toledo, Tulsa, and UNLV at 6.3 yards er carry. San Diego St. after 11 seasons without a winning record, has had 6 winning seasons in a row, this will be the 7th. The defense is among the best in the country. Fresno St. is completing less than 50% of their passes on the season, and 3 players have caught about 80% of those completions, and that is just not a versatile enough offense to go against the Aztec back 7 especially with an inferior running game. San Diego should continue to run the ball effectively even with a big lead, preventing the opportunity for a back door cover. Make the play on San Diego St. My NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH.

Have a double total situation for tonight. Lafayette has already played an option team (Tulane), and has been significantly above average vs the run this year, so should do a good job here. App St. 47-272 on ground last year, just 47-213 this year, has eroded year over year, and Cox out has not been the difference. teams that have previously seen the option do very well against it. App St. passing erosion 220 in 2014, 194 in 2015 and 166 this year on similar attempts, offense not nearly as impactful, down from 35,37ppg in 14,15 to 23ppg this year.I have an 89-128-5 O/U situation on this game, and option teams tend to under perform vs a team that has seen and practiced for the option from a game earlier in the season. Make the play on the under.

The Green Bay Packers have a reputation for offense, especially with Aaron Rodgers at QB. Last year was his worst season since taking over as the Green Bay starting QB, but without Jordy Nelson, and no one else stepping up, the Packer offense and Rodgers suffered tremendously. This year, the Packer offense has been among the worst in the league, generating under 300 yards a game. Green Bay may be 2-1, but one possession wins vs Detroit and Jacksonville don't shout Super Bowl. The facts get in the way of the perception here, as Green Bay has been an average team from the line of scrimmage this year. While the Packers have stuffed the run, their pass defense is one of the worst in the league, and the Giants have an above average passing game, and will exploit the weak back 7 of the Packer defense. Conversely, the Giants have done a very good job defensively ranking significantly above average vs both the run and the pass. The wildcard in this game is rookie Giant's Head Coach Bob McAdoo. he served under McCarthy through the 2013 season, and knows the Packer offense and Aaron Rodgers as well as anyone. Eli Manning is 4-0 ATS vs McCarthy and the Packers with a 104.9 passer rating. The Packers have been out-gained in all 3 games, and are fortunate to be 2-1, as their stats are ugly, and unimpressive. Make the play on New York.

I think there is a lot of hype in Dallas, as many believe hey have found their future QB in Zak Prescott. He certainly has responded well to opportunity, and has the Boy's at 3-1. The problem is, the Cowboys have not beaten a winning team yet, and the average defense he has faced in the 4 games, ranks #19. He will see a top 10 defense in this one, as will the Dallas defense see a top 10 offense, one that has a pretty elite passing attack, and they should be able to assualt the Dallas back 7. Dallas despite a weak schedule so far, is negative from the line of scrimmage per play offense vs their defense. What attracts me to this game even more are 2 things. The Bengals own a 15-3 ATS mark in their last 18 vs the NFC East, including 9-1 ATS on the road. Bigger than that is a 1 condition situation that goes 112-173-14 ATS against the home team.Make the play on Cincinnati.