The Philadelphia Eagles needed a win and a loss by Minnesota to have a shot at repeating their Super Bowl win from a year ago. They got it done with a whitewash of Washington 28-0. QB Nick Foles will be under center again, just like a year ago, but he doesn't have the same numbers as he enters with 7 TDs and 4 INT's, but not far off. He is battling injuries and he may not be as effective. bears QB Mitchell Trubisky made a huge leap from a year ago and has become a quality QB. The Bears offense has added 10ppg from a year ago, and their defense has become elite. The Bears finished 7-1 at home losing only to New England and their average margin in the 7 wins was 13.1ppg. They beat Seattle and The Rams here. They held the elite offense of the Rams to 6 points. The Eagle defense on the road this year allowed 400+ yards a game and 23.7ppg. The Bears defense closed the season allowing a total of 42 points in their last 4 games. A team that allowed less than 47 points in their final 4 games and playing in the wild-card round is 7-2 SU/7-2 ATS. They are also 6-0 ATS if they did not allow more than 17 points in any of their last 4. Finally, teams in the wild-card round that average greater than 2.95 sacks a game, and are less than a -7 point favorite is 33-12 ATS. I also have a statistical matchup situation that has been 98-65-5 ATS, and when you combine it with the sack situation from above it has been 23-1-1 ATS. Make the play on Chicago. 

The San Diego Chargers enter their wild-card showdown vs Baltimore with 12 wins. They are being backed by the public bigger that any of the 4 wild card games. Baltimore was transformed offensively when Lamar Jackson took over at QB, and the Ravens running game exploded averaging 230 rushing yards a game. That is perhaps the most significant stat of all heading into this game. A team in the wild-card game that out-rushes their opponent is 47-13 ATS. While a 12 win team appears to be in a good spot as a road dog in the wild card round, they are 0-2 SU/ATS in this role, and a wild card team with a worse record as a wild card home favorite has cashed 63.6% of the time. make the play on Baltimore.

The Dallas Cowboys and the Seattle Seahawks have each played well down the stretch. Seattle has won the last 3 meetings have won 8 playoff games behind Wilson, while Dallas has won 2 playoff games since 1996. Seattle dominated the early season meeting 24-13, and Prescott had less than 60 yards passing entering the 4th quarter. The QB play is important, and it comes down to who do you trust more? Seattle sacked Prescott 5 times in that meeting this season. Seattle has run the ball for 882 yards at 4.8 yards a carry in its last 5 games while the Dallas running game has managed 131 yards on 46 carries in their last 2 at 2.8 yards a tote. Many will say Dallas has Amari Cooper now, well Seattle has Doug Baldwin who didn't play in the first meeting either. Make the play on Seattle.

These teams both got off to slow starts as Watson and Luck were both coming off season-ending injuries from the prior season. Once they got going and up to speed, each team took off. Luck has had a banner year and has some crazy stats. he has completed a 20+ yard pass to 12 different receivers and completed a TD pass to 13 different receivers. The difference however in this game is Houston relies heavily on Clowney and Watt to get pressure and be game changers, and Luck has been sacked a league-low 18 times all season, an NFL best. Houston has seen Watson go down 62 times on the season, a league high. Indianapolis sacked him 12 times in the 2 games this season, and I believe that will be the difference maker here. Houston has been out-gained in 4 of their last 5 games. The team that controls the line of scrimmage generally wins the game, and Indy has done that consistently going 9-1 down the stretch. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Washington Huskies finished a disappointing 10-3 on the season. They just could not score points despite having a seasoned QB as they averaged 26.5ppg. They were carried by their defense all season. Last year they have a much better offense, with a similar defense but lost in their Bowl when Penn St. scored 35, the most they gave up all season. Two years ago their 41ppg offense was held to 7 by Alabama. They were also beaten by Auburn this season, and this team has just struggled outside the conference vs the better teams. They are 1-6 in their last 7 vs the SEC, 1-6 in their last 7 vs the Big-12, and lost last year to Penn St. Bigger than any of that is my best Bowl situation that is 65-16 ATS is on the Buckeyes here. This is Urban Meyer's last game and his teams have been 55-27-1 ATS as long as he is not a favorite of -10 or more. (7-1 ATS in January). Make the play on Ohio St. 

The Kentucky defense was as good as ever this season, but they have been a one-way team all season. The Wildcats are great on defense, but the offense averaged just over 26 points a contest and in their last 5 SEC games they scored just 67 total points, or 13.4 a game. Overall in the 5 games, they managed 4.5 yards a play which is really bad. They were out-gained by 70 yards a game. The Penn St. offense scored almost 35 points a game, while their last 3 opponents combined to score a total of 20 points. Kentucky runs the ball 64% of the time, and Penn St. faced Wisconsin, Maryland, and Pitt which are 3 run-heavy offenses, and none of the 3 scored more than 10 points against them, as Penn St. forced 8 total fumbles. The defenses here are similar, but the Penn St. offense is much more explosive. Make the play on Penn St. 

The Miss St. season can be summed up rather quickly. They allowed 12ppg which is the best in the nation. The offense is another story. The top 6 defenses they played saw them score even less than that stingy defense allowed, 11.2ppg. When they played poor defenses they thrived and scored 47ppg. That is an amazing split, but unfortunately, Iowa is more like the 6 tough defenses that shut this team down. The Iowa defense is elite and allowed just 16 TDs prior to the 4th quarter all season. It is tough for a team averaging 11.2ppg vs elite defenses to cover a TD. There have only been 4 previous Bowl Games with a line of +7 or more and a total less than 45, and the dog won 2 outright and covered 3. A team entering its Bowl game that allowed their last 2 opponents less than 10 combined points us 1-15 ATS. Make the play on Iowa.

The ACC lacked quality at the top this season and NC State benefited from a 4 game out of conference schedule that did not include a P5 opponent and went 4-0 winning by 127 points. The SEC dominated the ACC going 7-0 ATS and included in that was 2 ATS losses by Clemson that gave up 500+ yards to A&M and 600+ to SC. Texas A&M is a lot better than their record as they lost to both Clemson and Alabama but scored 24.5ppg in the two vs the nations best defenses. Texas A&M beat Kentucky, SC, and LSU, so they beat some good teams. I think if NC State played the A&M schedule it would remain questionable if they would even be Bowl eligible. A team off 3 straight home games coming into its Bowl game. winning at least the last 2 are 12-1 ATS since 1998. Make the play on Texas A&M.

Both Michigan St. and Oregon had disappointing seasons. These programs have come to expect more. Oregon got news that QB Justin Herbert will return for his senior year. Hebert was projected as the first QB to be selected in the draft. Mario Cristobal will be taking over the Oregon program, and I think the coaching edge goes to Mark Dantonio as he has won and covered 5 straight Bowl games despite being an underdog in 4 of them! Oregon fits a Bowl situation that is 0-11 ATS as well as a statistical profile that is 42-82 ATS. make the play on Michigan St.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on Minnesota.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on the NY Giants.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on Tampa Bay.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on Buffalo.

The Oklahoma Sooners have the best all-time offense in NCAAF. They average 578 yards a game along with 49.5 points. The Alabama Crimson Tide have their best offense ever and generate 528 yards and 48 points. When you look at Alabama because their defense was so strong, QB Tua Tagovialoa only played in the 4th quarter in one game, and still had 42 TD passes. The separation is the Alabama defense allowing 14.8ppg, vs the dreadful defense of Oklahoma that allowed 32.6ppg and was worse late in the season allowing over 40ppg in their last 5. It is possible that Alabama will be scoring on every possession, and the Tide defense is going to give up some points here, but will also get several stops. Alabama led 7 games this season by 14 points or more after the first quarter and had 20 point leads or better at the half in 9 games. There is no difference between the offenses, but a huge difference between the defenses. Oklahoma gave up 556 yards a game in their last 5. WR Marquise Brown is struggling with a foot injury and he is a key piece for the Oklahoma offense, and the secondary is banged up as well. Make the play on Alabama.

I think Notre Dame has been disrespected all season. Not being in a conference, a schedule questioned by many, and have been thought of as a team that doesn't really belong. That certainly will be a motivating factor and remember they did beat Michigan who ran off 10 straight wins after losing to the Irish, and that was before the offensive changes. Ian Book completed 70% of his passes with 19 TDs and 6 INTs after becoming the starter the last 9 games. Clemson saw similar results when Trevor Lawrence took over at QB. The key to this game is going to be the ability of the Notre Dame offensive line to give Book some shots downfield. That is the Clemson weakness, they were beat bad by SC over the top. The ACC was pretty weak at the top this year with Pittsburgh making it to the Championship game. When Clemson played up outside the conference their defense was burned for over 500 yards by A&M and over 600 yards by SC. The Irish have enough to hold their own here in a game that should be a lot closer than many think. Make the play on Notre Dame.

This game is going to be somewhat forgotten as it is nestled in with the 4 team playoff semi-finals, and some much more interesting Bowl games. Arkansas St. had a somewhat disappointing season. QB Justice Hansen did have a very good season with 27 TDs to just 6 INT's, but the Red Wolves 8 wins did not include any vs a team that made a Bowl game, and collectively the teams they beat went just 26-58. That doesn't include a win vs Se Missouri St. of the FCS. hard to trust the numbers as this team still has not beaten anyone of reasonable quality all season. The run defense really eroded this year after finishing 2017 allowing 136 rushing yards per game at 3.6 a carry to 201 a game at 5 yards a carry in 2018, despite a rather weak schedule. Nevada was 3-9 a year ago, but won 2 of their last 3 after a 1-8 start, so they have been 9-6 since. The offense really came together late in the season averaging over 520 yards per game in the last 3, and if not for blowing a 23-0 lead vs UNLV in the finale, they would be riding a 5 game winning streak here. Nevada should be excited to be here, are closer to home, and an 8th win would be the most for them since 2010. Nevada was a double-digit dog in 4 games, and a dog overall in 7 and still manged 7 wins. Make the play on Nevada.

Washington St. failed to finish business as they went into their finale against Washington with 1 loss and in the hunt for the 4 team playoff. It has to be demoralizing for a team that came so close to winning the Pac-12 and at least playing in the Rose Bowl. Mike Leach doesn't actually have much of a reputation in Bowl games where his team is just 2-7 ATS in his last 9, despite being the favorite in all but 1. Iowa St. finished 8-4 and has a chance to be only the 2nd team to reach 9 wins in the last 38 years at Iowa St. This team has lost just 1 game by more than 10 points in the last 2 years (14 v Texas), so basically they have been in every game they have played. This team took off when freshman QB Brock Purdy was inserted as the starter as they finished 7-1 with him directing the offense. He has been under the radar good. Just 2 QBs in the country averaged more yards per attempt than his 10.04 and that was Tagovialoa and Murray. Grier at W. Virginia was not as good, and the next best freshman was Trevor Lawrence of Clemson at 7.99. Needless to say, he is the best QB no one has heard of. Iowa St. will not be intimidated by the Cougars passing game after having faced Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and W, Virginia. The Iowa St. defense appeared to tire late in the season but will be ready here. Make the play on Iowa St.

The W. Virginia season could not have had a worse ending. They brought an 8-1 record into their last 2 games and suffered heartbreaking defeats in each. The losses came despite generating 97 points and 1,257 total yards. They will now be without the QB that generated the explosive offense as Will Grier won't play. Additionally, their best offensive lineman will skip the game as well. jack Allison will start at QB and he has attempted just 10 passes all season. Syracuse will be the motivated team here, as they have a shot at their first 10 win season since 2001. The Cuse fans sold out their ticket allotment almost immediately and will be well represented in Orlando. Syracuse's 3 losses came against unbeaten Clemson and Notre Dame, and against Putt who made it to the ACC Championship game. Syracuse averaged 40.8ppg and without Grier and their best offensive lineman, I don't see the Mountaineers keeping up here. A team that looked like they were going to a big Bowl, with 1 loss, and then lost their final 2 games like W. Virginia have really struggled in their Bowl game at 2-10-1 ATS since 1994. W. Virginia just 5-19 ATS in their last 24 Bowl games, and 0-12 ATS if they are not a dog of +3 or more. make the play on Syracuse.

Might be some rain early on Friday but it appears things should rapidly improve prior to kickoff here. this game is all about the QBs as Auburn signal caller Jarrett Stidham will be entering the NFL draft, but will play in the Bowl. I'm sure he is looking to brush up his resume vs a Purdue team that ranked in the bottom 10 this season in pass defense. Purdue has a very good QB of their own in David Blough who threw for 277+ yards in 9 of his last 10 games. he has a speedy target in freshman Rundale Moore who caught 103 balls for 12 TDs. Auburn faced some very strong defensive teams in LSU, Washington, Miss St., A&M, Georgia, and Alabama, where they averaged 22ppg, but vs everyone else 38.2ppg. The ball is going to be successful in the air here, make the play on the over.

Both these teams needed to win their finale to get here, as they each finished 6-6. Vanderbilt had built a lot of momentum late in the season covering their last 5 games at 5-0 ATS. Unfortunately all that momentum gets lost with the big layoff and often these streaking teams don't fare well in Bowl games. A team that comes into a Bowl game with an ATS streak of more than 3 games vs an opponent that is not on an ATS streak of more than 3 games is 52-81-2 ATS, including 10-27-1 ATS with a line from pock to -4.5. I also have another version of streaking teams that i 29-71 ATS. Baylor was 1-11 SU last year, so they have to be excited to be in any Bowl game. They also get this one in Texas and should have the crowd on their side making this a quasi-home game. Make the play on Baylor.

A disappointing season for both these teams as they collide in the Pinstripe Bowl. Wisconsin will go with back-up QB Jack Coan, while it looks like Miami QB N'Kosi Perry may be facing disciplinary issues. That would leave Malik Rozier at QB for the Canes. The offense has been problematic all season and each QB has struggled against good teams. This game will come down to The Wisconsin running game and heavy doses of Jonathon Taylor, and his 1,989 yards on the season at 7.1 yards an attempt vs a stout Miami run defense. Taylor had success vs the top 4 run defenses he saw this year in BYU, Iowa, Michigan, and Penn St. He carried 88 times for 516 yards at 5.9. he will be the best player on the field. One big factor is also the weather. This game is being played in NY City and temps are expected to be in the 30s. Miami us the only warm weather team to ever play in the Pinstripe Bowl, and perhaps an unmotivated team already, in cold weather may lose more of their mental preparation here. Wisconsin is certainly used to the cold, and it could be a big day for Taylor. Hard to trust a likely unmotivated Miami team in the cold. Make the play on Wisconsin.

It looks like both QB Anthony Russo and RB Ryquell Armstead will both be playing for Temple. The coaching match up goes solidly Duke's way as David Cutcliffe has a great Bowl resume at Ole Miss and Duke at 8-2 ATS and his team has scored 27 or more points in every one of them. Temple will be led by Ed Foley as an interim coach, the same role he had 2 seasons ago. Foley lost that game as a -10.5 favorite to another ACC team Wake Forest 34-26. Duke is coming off a woeful loss to Wake Forest in their season finale 59-7 and lost the game prior to that vs Clemson 35-6. A team entering their Bowl game after losing the previous 2 by -52 points or more are very motivated, and are 10-2 ATS if +3.5 or more, and 8-1 ATS if it is a December Bowl game. AAC teams with 7 to 10 wins are 6-19 SU and 6-19 ATS, including 1-8 ATS in their last 9. Make the play on Duke.

One of the lowest Bowl totals in quite some time, as California takes on TCU. The Bears have struggled in offense all season, and their last 5 games shows they scored 15,13,13,12, and 33. They scored 33 vs Colorado by opening the first quarter with 2 pick-6's, so in reality the offense scored 19. TCU is down to their 3rd string QB, and they have also struggled all season. The best units on the field will be both defenses which are among the best in the country. The total may be low, but not low enough. This is an era of high scoring so sometimes these low totals tend to push the bettor toward the over. The last 2 years in games played with a P5 conference favorite and a total of less than 41 the under is 13-1! The average score was 22.8 to 7.9. Only one game reached as high as 43 points and that game saw running TDs of 71,67, and 60 yards, so a certain outlier. Make the play on the under.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers had to win a tough game at Wisconsin yo finish 6-6 and become Bowl eligible. They were handed the game on a silver platter by Wisconsin who fell behind 17-0, committed 4 turnovers, and allowed a 69-yard punt return. That marked the biggest weakness of this Minnesota team, their run defense. Wisconsin had success on the ground generating 170 yards on 31 carries but had to throw a lot to play catch up all game. Minnesota has issues, as 6 unannounced players are suspended for this game. Minnesota has faced 3 other top 30 rushing offenses and here is what happened:

#17 Maryland      37-315    42 points

#13 Illinois      35-430    55 points

#28 Nebraska      43-383    53 points

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Now they get not only the #1 rushing team in NCAA Football but one that is even more difficult to stop, running the triple option. Tech has run for 4,019 yards at 5.73 yards per carry and 45 TDs on the ground. The only 2 teams that contained their running game were Georgia, and Clemson, as they went for 229+ vs all others, and 372+ vs 6 opponents. Minnesota also loses LB Blake Cashman (leading tackler) and OT Donnell Greene sit out of this game to prepare for NFL draft. Paul Johnson is making this game his swan song so tech should easily be the motivated team here to send their coach out a winner. Make the play on Georgia Tech.

The contrarian NFL always holds some surprises. My biggest and nest situation applies to this game. It is based on part in a game where one team's scoring margin vs the weak opponent is very extreme. The situation is a ridiculous 52-7 ATS. Make the play on Arizona.

Buffalo at 10-3 on the season broke the previous school record for wins of 8 since joining the FBS. The Bulls, however, may still be feeling the pain for their MAC Championship game where they were up 29-10 near the end of the 3rd quarter vs an offensively challenged N. Illinois team and lost. Neil Brown has a chance to string together a 3rd straight 10 win season at Troy with a win. Bowl teams that play relatively close to home (under a 3-hour drive in this case), often have the huge crowd advantage as Buffalo is over 1000 miles away here. The MAC has a horrific Bowl record as they are 18-36-3 ATS since 2007, and just 1-11 SU in their last 12. Buffalo has whiffed in their 2 Bowl games as they lost by 18 and 25 points. This is the 1st ever Bowl game for Lance Leipold, while Neal Brown has won the last 2 years. Make the play on Troy.

The Houston Cougars were standing at 7-1 and a big Bowl game appeared to be within striking distance. It all came tumbling down when QB D'Eriq King went down with a season-ending injury. King was also the team's top runner. His replacement Clayton Tune is passing at just 44% completions, and 2 yards less per attempt than King, and is not a runner. Additionally, the Cougars lost 4 defensive linemen, including one of the best in the country Ed Oliver, who is skipping the Bowl game. Army has its best team in years at 10-2. The Army roster is always heavily stocked with Texas recruits(20+ this year), and playing in Texas in front of family and friends have always served this team well as they are 19-2 ATS lifetime in Texas. Make the play on Army.

Bowl teams that are .500 or less and playing a team over .500 and are a dog from +2 to +10.5 are 40-12 ATS in their Bowl Game. Meanwhile, a Bowl team that lost their Conference Championship game by 8 points or more and are in a December Bowl not a dog of more than 1 point are 1-16 ATS (applies against Memphis). Make the play on Wake Forest.

BYU could be without their top 3 running backs for this game. They may have to take to the air but against a bad W. Michigan secondary, even the poor BYU passing attack should be able to move the chains. Despite losing their starting QB the Broncos have been still good in the passing game. The tough task for a team that averages just 25ppg to a line that is double-digits is going to be rough for BYU. this is the first time a 6 win Bowl team facing a 7 win Bowl team has been favored by double digits and in fact they are 9-17 ATS to a line of -3 or more. A Bowl team that is posted as a favorite covering 3+ games in a row coming in with a line of -3 to dog or -10 or more is just 6-29 ATS. Make the play on W. Michigan.

A Bowl game where a team averages 40.25 points per game or more and the total is set at less than 64 with a line of less than or equal to +3 (which includes them as a PK or favorite). The under is 20-3 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

Conference-USA December Bowl favorites with a total from 50 to 63.5 and not favored by -8 or more are 10-0 to the under. Make the play on the under. 

Ohio U. and San Diego St. have had completely different years. Ohio U. started off 3-3 and finished 5-1, while SD St. started 6-1 and finished 1-4. The Aztecs finished the season on a 1-6 ATS run which is actually positive for a Bowl team. What they do best is stop the run allowing just 2.7 yards per attempt, and the running game is a huge part of the Bobcats offense as they have generated 261 yards a game on the ground. I don't think they will be able to move the ball on the ground in this one. The Aztecs are rarely beaten bad, and while they lost 4 of their last 5 it was by a combined 17 points. San Diego St. has an unusual profile having gone 0-9 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite, but 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a dog. They have won 7 of those 9 as a dog straight up. The MAC Conference is just 33-60 SU and 33-48-2 ATS in Bowl games. Make the play on San Diego St.

A Bowl game where a team averages 40.25 points per game or more and the total is set at less than 64 with a line of less than or equal to +3 (which includes them as a PK or favorite). The under is 20-3 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

UAB didn't even have a football program as recently as 2 years ago. Since restoring the program the Blazers are 18-8. What a great job by Bill Clark. This year he won the C-USA Championship, and are on a mission to finish the job they didn't get done, as they lost their Bowl game. UAB has a shown to be almost impossible to score on vs horrible offenses, and N. Illinois is quite offensively challenged. take a look at what the UAB defense has done vs the teams on its schedule that average less than 25ppg. (N. Illinois is at 20.7):

The New England Patriots, Tom Brady, and Bill Belichick, and the city of Miami just don't get along. Miami has been a chamber of horrors for the Pats in the Brady/Belichick era. Last week the Pats suffered a loss on a hook and ladder Miracle in Miami, losing on the last play of the game. Bill Belichick I'm sure is saying, onto Pittsburgh. Thankfully the Pats rarely play poorly after a loss, and since 2002 they are 36-12-1 ATS off a loss. Brady stands at 5-0 vs Pittsburgh vs Mike Tomlin scoring 34.6ppg, at 9.7 yards per attempt, 14 TDs 1 INT, and a passer rating of 127.7. Pittsburgh has gotten a strong season out of Big Ben, but he was forced out of last week's game with a rib injury, although he did come back. he will play this week but could be a hit away from being forced out again. Pittsburgh is leaking oil severely and Ben is 3-8 in his last 11 vs New England with 22 TDs and 11 INTs. he enters this game having thrown 7 TDs and 6 INTs in his last 4 games. Pittsburgh has not beaten a team all season that currently has more than 7 wins, and that was Baltimore. Baltimore also beat Pittsburgh 26-14. RB James Connor may return, but outside of a 4 game stretch where he went for 436 yards, he has generated 436 in all other games, and his replacements Ridley and Samuels have carried 46 times for 119 yards. Pittsburgh has become solely dependent on Big Ben, as they have generated 75 yards or less on the ground in 4 straight games. The final factor is the fact that New England in the regular season following a loss, and not favored by more than 4 points is 23-0 ATS last 23 covering by +14.11ppg! My NFL Game of the Year is on New England.

Appalachian St. has had a great run under Scott Satterfield. Unfortunately, he has been hired by Louisville and won't be on the sidelines for this one. Many want to believe that the team with the interim head coach is a reason to play against a team bit since 2003 the interim head coach is 32-34-1 ATS in a Bowl game, so it is not a factor. Appalachian St. won 10 games this season, but have had very little in the way of resistance as they were double-digit favorites in 11 straight games, making Middle Tennessee the strongest opponent they have faced in 3 months. The Blue Raiders are a not so lofty 8-5 but consider the fact they lost 3 games to SEC teams in Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Kentucky. They suffered another loss when QB Brett Stockstill went down in the 1st quarter with an injury. The only other loss was to UAB by 2 points, a team they beat the week before 27-3, holding them to negative rushing yards. Stockstill is a 6th-year senior, and has had an oft-injured career, but is healthy again. He spent a lot of the early season battling injuries and had 0 games vs FBS competition throwing for 8+ yards per attempt. Once healthy he threw for 8+ yards an attempt in 5 of his last 6 including scoring 23 vs Kentucky. he has thrown for over 12,000 yards and a 100 TDs in his career. App. St. has a strong pass defense but has not been tested by a QB like Stockstill with a boatload of experience and healthy again. Middle Tennessee outside the SEC has lost with Stockstill out, and by 2 to a UAB team, they beat by 24. UAB did not give up points to many teams and either has Kentucky. Stockstill's last 3 games were vs those two teams and he went 81-107 for 916 yards at 8.56 yards an attempt, and 7 TDs. A healthy Stockstill makes a huge difference and not reflected in the line here. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

Georgia Southern finished just 2-10 a year ago and turned that into 9-3, the biggest turnaround of any team in a Bowl this year. The one big win came vs Appalachian St. a team that also runs the triple option, lost its quarterback early in the first quarter, and its top RB the week before. The 9-3 record is encrusted with variance as Georgia Southern benefited from 27 turnovers by opponents while setting an FBS record by committing only 5 of their own. Teams that benefit greatly from turnovers in the regular season often struggle in Bowls. despite the 22 extra possessions and a 9-3 record on the season, Georgia Southern was out-gained on the season by their opponents by 18 yards a game. Chris Creighton has done a remarkable job here, as he took over a program that had never won more than 6 games and led them to 7 wins in 2 of the last 3 years. E. Michigan has the added incentive to set the school record for wins at 8. his team is 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 in the role of a dog. Make the play on E. Michigan.

Utah St. has had a great season, and finished at 10-2. They went on a 10 game winning streak where they were quite dominant. The question mark for this team is they played on the weak side of the MWC, and their 10 wins came against a schedule of teams that combined to go 40-80. Seven of the teams they beat allowed 35.4 points a game or more. Eight of those teams also averaged 28.8 points per game or less. While they did play tough teams tough, they have a lot of nothing wins. North Texas is 9-3 and their losses are by a combined 13 points, and have wins vs SMU and Arkansas by an impressive combined points of 50. The Mean Green score 36.4ppg more than any team Utah St. has beaten all season, and they allow 21.8ppg, fewer than all but 2 teams the Aggies have beaten all season. QB mason Fine cut his INT`s from 15 a year ago to 5 this season, and the junior is just under 10,000 yards for his career. North Texas is the only team in the entire FBS that out-gained every team on its schedule. A lot will go against them as they have failed to cover 5 straight games, but teams in their Bowl game failing to cover in 5 straight or more have gone 19-10 ATS. When they are a dog of 6.5 or more, they are 7-1 ATS winning outright 6 times! Make the play on North Texas.

This is a huge game for both these teams and a win here will go a long way to determining the playoff fate of each team. Minnesota went 12-1 SU in their last 13 games a year ago, and the addition of Kirk Cousins at QB had everyone thinking Super Bowl. Cousins has had a good season but the Minnesota defense has really dropped off. The Vikings held 12 opponents to 20 points or less a year ago with those 12 teams averaging a scant 11.8ppg. This year the defense is allowing 5 points a game more, and just 5 teams have been held to 20 or less. Minnesota has truly suffered over the years vs teams willing to put the ball on the ground, trowing on average less than 30 passes a game. When they have been on the road vs this type of team they are 1-15 ATS. Seattle has dominated in Monday or Thursday games where they are 20-10-2 ATS, while Minnesota on the road in Monday or Thursday games is just 2-8-3 ATS. Wilson has dominated the Minnesota defense and is 4-0 averaging 30ppg with a passer rating of 120.5, 9 TDs to just 1 INT. Make the ply on Seattle.

The LA Rams are 11-1 and put a lot of pressure on a defense as they have scored 29 or more points in 11 of 12 games. They also have a huge game changer on defense in Aaron Donald. Donald leads the NFL with 16.5 sacks and has also made 20 tackles for a loss. He also has 32 QB hits. he has had 10.5 sacks in one-possession games. The Rams are 16-0 in a game in which he records a sack going back to last year. he wears down the opponent as 7.5 of his sacks have come in the 4th quarter, and 21 of his QB hits. All 4 of his forced fumbles have resulted in a Rams TD. he will go against rookie G James Daniels, which is a total mismatch, but Daniels will get a lot of help with double teams. Goff had a breakout season a year ago, but has been even better this season. The Rams got Aqib Talib back for 26 snaps last week, and it is no coincidence the Rams defense was better than it had been in awhile. Bears QB Mitch Trubitsky will likely return from a shoulder injury, but with Donald on the other side he could be a play from being hit again. The Bears have allowed at least 3 sacks in 2 straight games, and after doing so and playing at home they are a woeful 0-12 ATS. With the sack master in the house make the play on LA.

Le'Veon Bell decided not to play this season, so the Steelers went with first-year starting running back James Conner. Conner filled in admirably, but now he has been declared out against Oakland. That leaves the running game to Rookie Jaylen Samuels and veteran Stevan Ridley. Combined they have carried the ball 30 times for 87 yards, so expect a big drop off in the Pittsburgh running game. The Steelers are 5-0-1 SU/5-1 ATS this year when rushing for 100+ yards, and 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS rushing for less than 100 yards. (a pair of wins by 3, and 4 points). Oakland played the Chiefs to a 7 point game last week, out-gained by just 29 yards. It was 3 turnovers that did them in. Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 8 times in their last 3 games, and Big Ben has tossed 13 INT's on the season. Home dogs of +9.5 or more in the NFL are 105-81-5 ATS covering 56.5% of all games. Make the play on Oakland.

The Arizona Cardinals went to Green Bay last Sunday and upset the Packers as a 2 TD underdog. That places them in a huge letdown spot here as a team that won on the road as an 11.5 or more point underdog is just 15-39-1 ATS in their next game. If the opponent isn't worth getting up for and has a winning percentage of less than .600 it drops to 7-31 ATS. (3-19 ATS from week 11 out). Make the play on Detroit.

The Denver Broncos have played their way back into the playoff picture at 6-6. They have lost Emmanuel Sanders for the season and also SB Chris Harris Jr. The Broncos have a myriad of injuries with 17 on the injury report. Sam Francisco has coughed up the ball 5 times in their last 2 games, and it hides how well they have moved the ball. The Niners offense has managed just 25 points but their 6.1 yards per play in the 2 games is well above average for an NFL team. Nick Mullins is passing at 8.1 yards an attempt which is very high, so look for the Niners offense to have success vs a depleted Denver defense. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Carolina Panthers had it all going in the first half of the season at 6-2. They have yet to win a game in the 2nd half where they are 0-4. I think the market has now under-valued this team. The Panthers despite losing their last 3 out-gained all 3 opponents. last week may have been rock bottom for Cam Newton as he threw 4 INT's, something he hadn't done since his rookie year. The Browns are 2-12 ATS in a game following scoring less than 14 points. The Panthers fit a situation that is 54-16 ATS in this one. Make the play on Carolina.

Eagles fit a situation that is 77-122-6 ATS. An under .500 team playing as a favorite off a win of 3 points or less. (33-58-1 ATS if it is a division game). Make the play on Washington.

The Cleveland Browns have win 2 straight games for the first time in their last 66 games. The history in the NFL is such that is shows teams off a pair of dog wins struggle in their next game. It will certainly not be easy going against a Houston team that opened the season 0-3 but have rattled off 8 straight wins. The Texans are fresh off a Monday Night Football win over Tennessee 34-17. A team coming off a Monday Night win of 17 or more points is 91-61-4 ATS. Houston is rolling and all the situations point to rolling once again. Make the play on Houston.

he Tampa Bay Bucs have gone back and forth between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They finally won a game 27-9 but that was vs the Niners who are 2-9. They are allowing over 30ppg on the season. The Panthers after winning and covering 3 straight, have now lost and failed to cover in 3 straight. The last 2 were by a total of 4 points so they are not getting buried. They put up 42 points, a season high vs Tampa in the first meeting. The Tampa Bay offense has been elite, aside from nasty turnovers which have plagued them all season, but as good as it is the defense is equally bad. Winston has just 10 TDs to 11 INTs on the season. He owns just a 78.2 passer rating in his career vs Carolina 5 TDs and 9 INTs, and just 14.8ppg in 6 starts. Newron is 9-3 SU/ATS vs TB, producing 29ppg in the 12 contests. Make the play on Carolina.

Time has pretty much run out on the Falcons at 4-7 on the season, even running the table would likely leave them short of the playoffs, and they certainly don't look like a team ready to run the table. The insertion of QB Lamar Jackson has transformed the Ravens running game from 27th to 11th in just 2 weeks. It has helped the #1 ranked Raven defense to be even better. The Falcons have a lot of offensive weapons but they just aren't clicking having scored less than 20 points 3 straight games, scoring just 19 total points in the first half in the 3 games. perhaps worse than that the Falcons are allowing 28ppg against them. Matt Ryan is just 20-35 ATS in his last 55 starts as a favorite. Make the play on Baltimore.

I have my best situation that I ever discovered that is active for this game. It is a ridiculous 368-185 to the UNDER, converting 66.7% of 553 bets. It has a Z-score of an off the charts 7.79 z-score, making it extremely predictable. When it has been a matchup of ACC teams it has been 47-14 to the UNDER at 77%. Make the play on the UNDER.

The Red River Rivalry 2.0 takes on even more meaning in this game as Oklahoma is fighting to make the 4 team playoff while Texas looks to win the B-12 Championship for the first time since 2009. Texas is getting better fast under Tom Herman, and a win in this game or their Bowl game will give the Horn's their first 10 win season since 2009. Since Sept. 16, 2009 Texas has been in all bit one game despite a turnover disadvantage in all but one. Here are the Texas losses over the period:

Since Sept. 16, 2017 TX has lost 8 games, aside from a 24-3 loss to TCU last year those losses:

MD      29-34    -5    -3 in turnovers

OKST  35-38    -3     EVEN     OKST FG as time expired

WVA    41-42   -1     -1            WVA score 0:16 left

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2017:

TXT    23-27    -4     -2         TXT score with 1:47 left

OKL    24-29   -5     +1         OKL  59 pass 6:59 left

USC    24-27   -3     -2          USC OT

OKST  10-13   -3    E            OKST OT

****************************************************************

This team despite  -7 in turnovers in these games has been right there in every game. Herman is 12-1 ATS as dog 9-4 SU, but if you go back to when he was OC at Iowa St. 23-1 ATS as dog! 

Oklahoma is the best all-time offense in NCAA Football history at this point, but what the offense has given the defense has for the most part taken away. The Sooners since the beginning of November have had trouble getting separation allowing 40+ points in all 4 games winning by an average of 6 points per game and allowing 47.2 a contest. That includes Kansas going over 500 yards and scoring 40 points. To put that in perspective, the Jayhawks have not scored as many as 35 points in a B-12 Conference game since Nov. 6, 2010! Texas has had Oklahoma's number and is 7-7 SU in the last 14 meetings, but 10-3-1 ATS. Oklahoma is also 1-6 ATS when they face Texas and have 2 more wins than Texas since 1989. Texas held a 45-24 lead in the first meeting with 9 minutes left, and imploded for a 48-45 loss. The Horn's had 3 turnovers in that game, and considering the Oklahoma defense had forced just 7 other turnovers the entire season, that was just pure bad luck. The last 5 meetings have all been decided by 7 points or less, and I don't see this one being any different. make the play on Texas.

The Big-12 Championship game is a rematch of the Sooners only defeat this season as Texas won a shootout early in the season 48-45. The Sooners have the best offense in terms of yard per play of any team in NCAA Football history. The problem is they have also allowed 40+ points in each of their last 4 games, including 40 to Kansas which hadn't scored more than 35 in over 8 years in a B-12 game. Oklahoma is 9-0-1 to the over this season facing P5 opponents with an average of an astounding 87.2ppg scored by both teams. (100.6ppg last 4). Texas has been in shootouts vs the best offenses in the B-12 all season. Texas games vs Oklahoma (93), Texas Tech (75), W. Va. (83), and Oklahoma St. (73), have averaged 81ppg. Saturday games (regular rest and routine), played between a pair of P5 opponents on a neutral field are 12-0 to the over when the total is 73 or higher. These games have beaten the lofty totals by +14.62 ppg. Bettors love the over, but usually, play under these big totals. Make the play on the over.

The Washington Huskies did a lot of disappointing this season. many had this team pegged as a playoff contender coming into the season, but they finished 9-3. There are some reasons, especially regarding the offense. RB Myles Garrett was a pre-season All-American. Garrett spent most of the season injured, missed 2 games, and has just gotten healthy and the numbers show it. Three of his top 4 rushing games were in the last 3 weeks, including a season-high 178 last week vs Washington St. TE Hunter Bryant was a pre-season All Pac-12, but he missed 9 games. He is healthy and averaging 24 yards a catch and like Garrett, his last game was his best. Don't underestimate the loss of LT Troy Adams as well, another pre-season All-American that missed the first 10 games, but is healthy again. Utah lost QB Tyler Huntley for the season and freshman Jason Shelley has taken over. Shelley has put up similar numbers to Huntley, but this is now a freshman in a Championship game vs the best defense he has seen all year, and that could change. RB Zack Moss has also been lost for the season. Washington stopped the Utah offense cold earlier in the season in a 21-7 win, and have all their pieces together now on offense, and are much better than they were then, while Utah has lost a lot from that game offensively. Washington was -4.5 at Utah and now just -5.5 on a neutral field, despite key offensive players lost by Utah, and 3 huge offensive players added and healthy for Washington? Make the play on Washington.

Typically the favorite in Thursday games has a tremendous advantage on the short week as evidenced by their 133-87-8 ATS record. However, this week both teams are in a rare event, both having played on Thursday last week. Dallas has bee playing well and have won 3 straight games themselves. From game 12 out, a team on the road vs a better than .500 team that has won and covered at least 3 straight games is just 36-67 ATS. The Saints have covered 9 straight games, but no team has covered 10 straight in the NFL since the 1992 Chargers. make the play on Dallas.

The Denver Broncos had a come from behind one point win vs the Chargers last week at home. The stats were not as kind as they were out-gained by over 150 yards, but a 2-0 turnover edge was why they won. It has been how the Denver wins have gone all season as 3 of their 4 wins were by 1,1, and 3 points all 4th quarter comebacks. That may be a bit more difficult against the NFL road warriors, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is 10-0-1 SU in their last 11 road games winning by an average margin of 7.5 points per game. Pittsburgh has a strong passing attack and has held opponents to 51 yards per game less than they average on the season. This will be the 3rd straight game for the Broncos facing a team on a 5 game winning streak or longer, and those are not easy games, and the Broncos have spent a lot of energy in those games. Case Keenum has 11 TDs to 10 INTs on the season has not been nearly as effective as last season. He has faced Pittsburgh one time scoring 9 points. Pittsburgh is better on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay has lost offensive continuity as Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick keep trading places. The pair has thrown an ugly 20 INT's on the season, and it is nearly impossible to win that way. Winston will get the nod this week. Winston's last start saw him throw 4 INT's. Tampa Bay has 4 or more turnovers in 4 of their last 5 games. the problems don't get much better on the other side of the ball where the Buc's defense is surrendering 34ppg in their last 7. The Niners have found some offensive life behind QB Nick Mullins. The Niners have totaled a season hugh 57 total points in their last 2 games. Tampa Bay has forced 1 turnover in their last 7 games while they have coughed it up 23 times themselves. Make the play on San Francisco.

It took years for the Jacksonville Jaguars to find their way back to the playoffs, as they did a year ago. They won't be going back this year as they are 3-7. There are at least 2 reasons why. The injury list coming into this game has reached epic proportions as it is at 21. The second is a huge regression on both sides of the ball. Combined they are 12.5 points worse than they were a year ago. They are still perceived as a good team, they are not. Buffalo is perceived to be a bad team, which is somewhat true. The Bills are 3-7 having played the toughest schedule in the NFL. They have faced 2 teams under .500 all season, one of them is Green Bay who probably won't be under .500 when the season ends, the other is the Jets who they beat 41-10, and going for over 450 yards. remember Blake Bortles is 26-49 SU in his NFL career, and carries a losing record as a road favorite. We have a warm weather team heading to Buffalo in a game that will not inspire their interest. Jacksonville has allowed 20+ points in 6 straight games, and has scored 18 or less in 5 straight. Make the play on Buffalo.

Boise St. has been very good for so long it seems that they never lose. They have been so good at home it seems like they never lose on their Smurf Turf. It is mostly true. The Broncos at home from 1999-2010 were 48-23-1 ATS but they have since been 16-32-1 ATS so they have obviously been over-priced. They are 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite of less than -17. The weakness on this team plays into the Utah St. strength which is the passing game, and that will be the difference in this one. Make the play on Utah St.

The Georgia Bulldogs have a date with Alabama in the SEC Championship game. If you are worried about a letdown, they were in the exact same situation last year with a date vs Auburn, and they beat Georgia Tech on the road 38-7. It takes a very good defense as well as one that knows how to defend the Tech's triple-option attack that runs the ball 90% of the time. Georgia faces this team every year, so I looked back to 2010, and in the 2 games played in the season that Georgia had an elite defense last year (16.9ppg allowed), and in 2015 (16.9ppg allowed), they stopped the triple option cold. This year Georgia is allowing 16.8ppg. The two years when Georgia had a great defense Tech scored 7 points each season. Many will point to the fact that Tech averages 36.9ppg but in 2014 they averaged 37.9ppg and scored 7 vs the Bull Dogs elite defense. Georgia is 12-0 SU at home in their last 12 home games winning on average by 40.8 to 12.2. Only 1 opponent would have covered this line, a 14 point win. Make the play on Georgia.

One of the biggest rivalries in college football has a lot at stake. Michigan and Ohio St. are both 10-1 entering this contest. Michigan brings its best team in years to the Horseshoe and the Wolverines are the best defense in this game as well as the best offense because they have the same numbers as Ohio St. from the line of scrimmage vs teams that average out to be better defensively. Defense is no contest. Ohio St. is below average and Michigan is ultra elite, the best in the country. Ohio St. is 28-1 SU in their last 29 home conference games, but will take the field as a home dog for the first time since 2011. This is the 13th time since 1982 they have been a home dog, 8 of those vs Michigan. The 17 point per game scoring margin by Ohio St. is their smallest in the Urban Meyer era. They have had scares vs TCU, Penn St., Nebraska, and Maryland, and lost to Purdue. This is not the caliber of Ohio St. team we have seen in recent years. Michigan last won here in 2000, but they were not supposed to win coming into the game as an average 9.1 under dog. This year is different, make the play on Michigan.

The Washington Huskies appeared to have everything in lace to make a run at the playoffs but they just don't seem to add up to the sum of their parts. These teams appear to be about even but there is something about the confidence and grit of Washington St. They have the winning intangibles. The Cougars just seem to get it done week after week while Washington doesn't seem to be connected and have lost 3 games. I'm riding this one on a situation that has been one of my best at 70-25 ATS that applied to the Cougars here. Make the play on Washington St.

This was supposed to be the big showdown in the Big-12, but with the W. Virginia loss last week some of that luster is gone, as West Virginia no longer has a shot to make the 4 team playoff. The Oklahoma balanced offense is the best by numbers I have ever seen. The Sooners generate 8.8 yards per play to opponents that allow 5.8. W. Virginia has pretty much an average defense, so Oklahoma is going to score big here. While Morgantown is a tough place to win, Oklahoma has done so all 3 times since W. Virginia became a member of the Big-12. The Sooners have averaged 54ppg here. W.Virginia has a strong offense and against a pretty average Oklahoma defense, they should do some scoring here, but keeping up may be a big problem. Oklahoma overall has won and covered 4 straight vs W, Virginia. Tough to try and match this Oklahoma team, they just have so much speed and so many weapons. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Until last season E. Michigan had not had consecutive seasons with at least 5 wins in each. They have done one better as they have 6 wins already this season and are Bowl eligible. Coach Chris Creighton has done a great job here winning in a place that never won before. E. Michigan is an improved team and has won 4 straight games in the conference. Kent St. is just 2-9 on the season. This program had a breakout season in 2012 winning 11 games but in the 6 years since they have just 16 wins. E. Michigan allowed just 7 points to each of their last  opponents. It sets them up in a situation that plays on a team that allowed 14 or less in 2 straight games vs an opponent giving up 37 or more in its last game. That is 60-20 ATS. Make the play on E. Michigan.  

The New Orleans Saints offense is scary good, and Drew Brees has unlimited weapons at his disposal. The Saints have won and covered 8 straight games. They have averaged 48 points per game in their last 3. They are just the 6th team since 1989 to score 40+ in 3 straight and playing at home. The previous 5 have averaged 39, allowing 20 winning by 19. Thanksgiving games where a team has 4 or more wins than their opponent are a perfect 7-0 ATS, winning by 25.2 points per game to an average line of -11.3. The much-maligned Saints defense has allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7, so it has been a bend but doesn't break defense, much like New England. falcons are now 1-11 ATS on the turf after a loss where they led after the 3rd quarter. Thursday favorites have a huge advantage logging a 130-87-8 ATS mark. It is even better for home favorites which are 85-52-5 ATS. (11-3 ATS giving 11 or more). Saints keep rolling. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Ole Miss Rebels are 5-6 but won't be going to a Bowl game because of NCAA sanctions. They will face their Egg Bowl in-state rival Miss St. Ole Miss is a big offensive team but has been shutdown by the big defenses they have faced. They average 36.7ppg but against Alabama, LSU, and Auburn they scored 13ppg. That will be problematic vs a Miss St. team allowing just 12.8ppg and held Alabama to 24. They held the Tide to 304 yards of total offense. It has been a tale of 2 cities for the Miss St. offense. They have faced 5 great defensive teams in KY,FL,AUB,LSU, and ALA and averaged 7.8ppg, but against poor defenses un SF, LA Lad, LA Tech,Arkansas they averaged 54ppg. Ole Miss has a brutal defense. I think it is clear, Miss St. stops potent offenses, and Ole Miss can't score vs a potent defense. While Miss St. crushes bad defenses. Make the play on Miss St.

NFL Thursday division games with a total from 36.5 to 45 are 22-2 to the under after week 11. (15-1 under in the NFC). Make the play on the under.

The Detroit Lions have had a very mixed bag of results on Thanksgiving. One thing is clear when they are the better team playing as the favorite since 1989, they are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS winning by an average score of 31.9 to 16.5 to an average line of -4.8, covering by +10.64 points per game. The results when they are not the better team is ugly. The Lions are 4-14 SU as a home dog on Thanksgiving, and 6-12 ATS. They average losing 28.4 to 18.9 as an average +5 dog. Failing to cover by -4.47 points per contest. Since 2004 it has been even uglier 0-10 SU, and 1-9 ATS losing 34.9 to 16.7 and failing to cover by -12.25 points per game. Detroit has finally found a running game as Kerryon Johnson has rushed for 641 yards at 5.4 yards a carry. problem is he has been ruled out for this game. That means LeGarrette Blount will be getting the carries and his 78 rushes at 2.3 per attempt are ugly. Mitchell Tribitsky has ignited a Bear's offense to just under 30ppg. make the play on Chicago.

This may be the most anticipated Monday Night Football game in many years, as the 9-1 KC Chiefs take in the 9-1 LA Rams. Not going to spend a lot of time on how good these teams are, the elite QB's, and play makers. Everyone is aware of that. The Rams have been a model of consistency as they have scored between 29-39 points in all 10 games. The KC offense has been +53 yards better than the average allowed by the defenses they have faced, LA is +93. KC is allowing 55 yards more on defense than the offenses they have faced, LA is 6 yards better than the offenses they have faced. That is a net of +101 yards for LA, and additionally the Rams run 7 plays a game more than their opponent, the Chiefs 7 yards less. I think Gurley on offense, and Darnold on defense will be the difference makers. History shows us how these games often turn out. Monday Night elite home teams (better than .800) facing an opponent .500 or better to a line of -9 or less, and a total of greater than 37 are 39-7-2 ATS. Make the play on LA.

The Oakland Raiders are a brutal team, and 2 games back they scored 3 points vs SF and last game just 6 vs the Chargers. The contrarian NFL makes them very desirable this week as a team that has scored less than 10 points in 2 straight games are 39-13 ATS including 14-1 ATS as a road dog of +13 or less. Make the play on Oakland.

The Jacksonville Jaguars prior to last season had gone 9 straight years without a winning season. They broke out in a big way last year winning 12 games and it sure looked like this team was ready to contend again. They started the season at 3-1 and then the bottom fell out as the Jags are 0-5 since. The trusty defense has allowed 28.6ppg in the 5 losses while the offense has slumped to 14.4ppg. It has been a total breakdown. Many had the Steelers pegged as a team that could take down New England but a 1-2-1 start was cause for concern. Not anymore as the Steelers are 5-0 SU and ATS since the ugly start. Jacksonville may bring a little extra here as their season is on the line, but don't think it will be enough against a red-hot Pittsburgh team. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

The Utah St. Aggies joined the FBS back in 1990. They struggled to be competitive and until 2012 the team never won more than 7 games. This program has elevated its level of play since then and is 1 win away from their 3rd season of 10 or more wins in the last 7 years. The Aggies are 9-1 with the only loss coming at the hands of Michigan St. in their opener a game that was tied with 2 minutes remaining. Since that game, the Aggies have rattled off 9 straight wins, by an average margin of 53.6-20.1. They have been better lately averaging 9.1 yards per play in their last 3 as QB Jordan Love continues to improve. Love has thrown for 2,676 yards 24 TDs and just 4 INT`s on the season. The offense can run the ball as well as Thompson and Bright have carried the ball 215 times for 1,530 yards at 7.1 yards a carry. The defense and special teams have been terrific, as they have combined to average 6.4ppg by themselves. Colorado St. is falling apart, and with QB Collin Hill (recovering from an ACL tear), is back at QB replacing Washinton transferJ.K. Carta-Samuels. Samuels wasn`t great but reasonably effective while Collins is trying to work his way back after surgery and the numbers are worse than Samuels as he has completed a lesser percentage 3 TD`s to 4 INT`s, and his yards per attempt is very poor. Coach Bobo said Collins is now #1 on the depth chart. A home team that has allowed225 rushing yards to at least their last 2 opponents, facing a team that generated 225 rushing yards in at least their last 2 games os 4-28-1 ATS. I also have situations of 7-38 ATS and 8-34 ATS against Colorado St. UtahSt. applies to a 96-47 ATS situation as well. Better than .500 road favorites that have accrued an ATS margin of 50 or more points in their last 7 games, and facing a sub-.500 team are 56-30 ATS in the last 86 occurrences. Make the play on Utah St.

The Northwestern Wildcats for the first time ever clinched the Big-10 Western Conference Title and will play in the Championship game. They are likely to be flat and have nothing to play for in this game. Minnesota, on the other hand, is 5-5 and needs a win in one of its last 2 games to become Bowl eligible. Their finale is on the road, so this is a huge spot. The Golden Gophers are the youngest team in the nation with over half its member's freshman so this would be quite an accomplishment. Minnesota fired its defensive coordinator prior to last week and they went out under new direction and held Purdue to 233 total yards and 10 points. The defense has been a liability all season but appears to take on new life with a new DC. The Minnesota offense that generated 25.5ppg with Zack Annexstad at QB, has come to life after he was replaced by Tanner Morgan. Morgan is 54-91 throwing for 10.4 yards per attempt, with 6 TDs and just 4 INT's. Ammexstad was throwing for 6.8 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and 7 INTs. The offense is now scoring 34.5ppg with Morgan under center. The Minnesota offense has generated 415 yards or more in 4 straight games, considerably better than before and now with a defense that appears to be put in a position to succeed, they are very much under the radar. Northwestern has had to fight through a lot of tough games and this is a great spot to see them in a "breather alert" situation. Make the play on Minnesota.

Middle Tennessee QB Brent Stockstill (coaches son), is a 6th year senior and has passed for 11,238 yards, 98 TDs to 30 INTs. he has a ton of experience and has seen and endured a lot. M. Tennessee St. is 7-3 on the season, but facing an SEC team that is 7-3 is completely different. Since the start of last season MTSU has faced Vanderbilt twice, and Georgia. The numbers tell the story. MTSU has generated 810 total yards on 197 plays at 4.11 yards per play. Stockstill has thrown for 4.89 yards per attempt. Needless to say, those numbers would rank at or near the bottom of the entire NCAA FBS. meanwhile, they were out-scored 112-20, and most of the points came late when they were blown out. Kentucky has a defense that is as good as any MTSU has ever faced, and after 2 losses where they played poorly, they will bring the heat in this one. SEC teams that allow less than 17ppg and facing a C-USA opponent allow 11.7ppg. If that opponent allows 28 or more points per game, the final score has averaged 41.3-10.4. I smell a major blowout here. Make the play on Kentucky.

It has to be tough play calling for the Green Bay Packers. You have a future Hall of Fame QB in Aaron Rogers but this season they have one of the best ground games in the NFL. Despite that the Packers have run the ball 30+ times or more in just 1 game, against Buffalo who they beat 22-0. The Packers have played a murderous schedule, and are in the midst of 4 games on the road in 5 weeks. This is a tough scheduling spot for them as they have played 8 straight games in a different city and this one comes on short rest. The Packers are a great road team on grass where they are 76-47-2 ATS but on artificial surface they are a woeful 50-72-1 ATS. Thursday Night favorites own a 129-87-8 ATS mark with a big advantage. If they are home favorites it goes to 84-52-5 ATS. Seattle is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Sunday Night Football games, as well as 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday Night games. They seem to thrive in the bright lights. NFL Thursday non-division conference games shows the home favorite at 14-1 ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

The New Orleans Saints won a big game at home last week vs the previously unbeaten LA Rams. The Saints have moved to 7-1 and have to be considered a serious Super Bowl contender. The Saints added to their already formidable weapons on offense picking up Dez Bryant. While the Saints are adding the Bengals are without their top weapon in A.J. Green. Drew Brees may be 39 but he is putting up the best numbers of his career with a passer rating of 120.6 with 18 TDs and just 1 INT. The explosive offense is averaging 35ppg. Andy Dalton still makes a lot of mistakes and has been picked off 8 times already on the season. Bengals are below average from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and until someone cools off Drew Brees no one is beating the Saints. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Cleveland Browns have tried just about everything, even a new coach but the wins have been very scarce. The 2-6-1 record this season is better bit they are still a long way from playing winning football. The Atlanta Falcons can score as Matt Ryan continues to have a big season, the big question mark for this team has been can they stop their opponent? The answer seems to have been found as they have held each of their last 3 opponents to fewer points than the previous opponent, none bigger than 14 allowed to Washington on the road a week ago. Atlanta has rallied back from an awful start to move to 4-4 and a win in Cleveland moves this team back into the playoff picture. Cleveland has allowed 134 points in the last 4 weeks are heading in the opposite direction. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Colts were so much better when Andrew Luck was a healthy QB and all the time he has missed has created the illusion of Indianapolis being a much worse team than they really are. It took some time, but Luck is healthy, up to game speed and is quietly having a career year with 23 TD passes already. Jacksonville has the perception of a top team off of last year, but they are so much worse averaging just 16.8ppg. A lot of that falls in the lap of Blake Bortles who has just 10 TD passes to 8 INTs. (8-27 SU on the road). The offense is nearly 10 points worse than a year ago while the defense has also regressed allowing 4 more points a game. Not surprised Indy is favored here, just surprised it is not by more. Make the play on Indianapolis. 

The Nevada Wolf Pack enters there game vs 3-6 Colorado St. at 5-4 seeking Bowl Eligibility. The last 20 home favorites seeking bowl eligibility vs a team with 4 wins or less is 20-0 SU and 14-6 ATS. Nevada has played a much tougher schedule, bit the defense has been vastly improved. They allowed 46.3ppg in their first 3 but 23.6ppg since. Colorado St. Has allowed opponents to score more than their season average in 8 of 9 games, and in 6 of those games, the opponent out-scored their season average by +11.1ppg or more. That does not bode well here on the road. Colorado St. has suffered a cluster of injuries on their offensive line. The Nevada air raid offense hasn't been special bit the CSU pass defense is brutal, and no player on the roster has more than 2.5 sacks. Special teams has been a disaster as well for CSU allowing 4 TDs. ESPN’s advanced metrics rank the Rams’ offense 103rd out of 130 FBS teams, their defense 119th and their special teams 129th. That adds up to an overall rank of 123, which leaves just seven worse teams in the nation. Make the play on Nevada.

This is becoming like a broken record. Iowa St. has played the toughest schedule in the country. They are very much under the radar, because they are just 5-3. A lot has changed in the last 4 games. QB Zeb Noland has left the team, as he sees the light. Freshman Brock Purdy is a high level QB, and has infused a mediocre offense into a strong one. Behind Noland Iowa St. was generating 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Since Purdy took over that has jumped to an elite 11.1, with 11 TD's to just 2 INT's. The running game that is averaging 3.6 yards an attempt has thrived as well, and has jumped to 4.4, and David Montgomery has 712 yards at 4.5 yards a carry. WR Hakeem Butler at 6'6" 225 has become elite with a competent QB to get him the ball. Butler now has 33 grabs for 791 yards and 8 TD's. He has 17 for 480 with Purdy at QB for 28.2 yards per catch. Uowa St. started football in 1892 and has never won 10 games, and this team is on a mission to get to the B-12 Championship game and win it. The Iowa St. defense is elite allowing 4.7 yards per play, and Baylor has struggled to stop good offenses, and struggled to score against good defenses, and in this game they will face both. Iowa St. offense has season numbers of 3.6 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per attempt, but behind Purdy it is 4.4 a carry and 10.9 per pass attempt. This team plays hard on every down, and finally has the depth in their defensive front to play strong for 4 quarters. Baylor fits a situation that is 15-62 ATS here, so technical support is big for ISU as well. Make the play on Iowa St.

The Missouri Tigers at 5-4 are under the radar, and look to secure Bowl eligibility at home vs Vanderbilt. A lot of bettors will look to the bright spot on the Vanderbilt season a 22-17 loss at Notre Dame. This was before Ian Book took over the Irish offense, because Wimbish was a liability in the passing game. The Missouri offense is balanced and is directed by a future NFL QB in Drew Lock. Lock has destroyed average defenses all season, as Missouri averaged just 17.7ppg vs Georgia, Alabama, and Kentucky, but 45ppg vs everyone else. Lock is even better as Emmanual Hall is healthy once again, as he averages 23 yards per catch and stretches the field and opens things up for others. Missouri can also run the ball, and has an above average defense. The Vandy defense grades out above average, however against very good offenses in SC, Georgia, and Florida they gave up 5.6 yards per rush, and 10 yards per pass attempt, way below average. There is some hidden value here. Make the play on Missouri.

It has been a tough year for 4-5 Wake Forest, a team that started the season 2-0, but their only wins since have come against a couple really bad teams in Rice and Louisville. The 5 losses have come by a total of 134 points. One of the reasons has been the injury bug. Wake Forest has lost 12 scholarship players for the season, and a total of 38 scholarship players have missed at least 1 game. The most recent injury will be the costliest as QB Sam Hartman has been lost for the season. Hartman is a freshman, and while his numbers aren't great they were more than adequate as he was growing into the position. The offense would normally turn to Kendall Hinton, but he us battling a pair of injuries himself, and may not even play, as they have used him on special teams and wide receiver. That likely leaves Jamie Newman who has completed just 46.5% of his 15 passes on the season with an INT and just 5 yards per attempt. Wake will likely turn to the running game but NC State is elite against the run allowing 3.1 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams that averages 4.5. The Wake secondary is below average and allows 64% completions and NC State QB Ryan Finley leads an elite passing attack generating close to 9 yards an attempt. Wake in their 5 losses have allowed:

BC       41

ND       56

CLEM     63

FLST     38

LOU      35

SYR      41

A new inexperienced QB, and an average running game vs an elite run defense, as well as a mediocre pass defense, against an elite passing attack has a strong odor of blowout on it. make the play on NC State.

The LA Tams were tested in their last game at home vs Green Bay. The Packers best game of the year went against the Rams worst game of the year, and LA managed to survive and move to 8-0 on the season. They now move to a tough team and venue to take on the 5-1 New Orleans Saints. This is a tough match up for the Saints weak back 7. The Saints allow 8.3 yards per attempt vs a schedule of teams that generate 7.1. The Rams have the best passing attack in the league as they generate an amazing 9.1 yards per attempt. It will be hard for Drew Brees to match scores here for 4 quarters. Both offenses are scoring 33ppg but the Rams defense allows a TC less, and that will be tough to overcome. Make the play on LA. 

The LA Chargers have seen so much go wrong over the last 3 years. They lost 20 one-possession games, suffered through countless injuries, and failed to make the playoffs a year ago at 9-7. Signs of that reversing are showing up in 2018 as the Chargers are 5-2 on the season. The 2 losses are to a pair of teams that have combined to lose just 1 game. They average beating the rest of the teams on their schedule by over 10 points a game. The Chargers have one of the top offenses in the league generating 7.1 yards a play vs a schedule of opponents allowing 6.0. The Phil Rivers passing attack is generating 8.8 yards an attempt vs opponents allowing 7.1. Seattle grades out overall as an average team. Phil Rivers is 22-12 ATS in his last 34 as a road dog. Seattle once dominated at home but just 2-5 here in their last 7. Make the play on LA.

The Atlanta Falcons have a lot of skill players on offense but have become a one-dimensional team. They are an elite passing team that can't run the ball. Washington has not allowed more than 104 rushing yards in any game this season so it does not appear that will be fixed in this game. Washington's 5-2 record is above their stats, as they grade out as an average team. The injury report is going to catch up with them now listing 15 players, 7 added after last week. This is what hurt them last year it may again this year. A team that is covering .333 or less games vs one that covers .670 or better has always been a good bet n the contrarian NFL, and Atlanta is the qualifier this week. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in control of their own destiny, but that hasn't meant much over the last 4 years. Notre Dame has entered November ranked in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years, and in the 4 years they have failed to finish in the top 10 in any of them. Notre Dame has perhaps the biggest fan base in the country and when they reach a lofty status the offs makers push the lines. The Irish are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 November games. Northwestern has won the last 2 meetings despite being a dog of -17 and -28. This stat will surprise most that read this. Northwestern has more wins over the last 3 years coming into this season than Notre Dame. Northwestern was a team that once upon a time had 4 winning seasons in 25 years. The Wildcats own wins over Michigan St. twice, Iowa, and Wisconsin since the start of last season, and lost to Michigan by just 3. Getting 10 points when you allow 23.6 is huge. Vandy, Pittsburgh, and Ball St. would have covered this number vs Notre Dame (3 ND wins). Northwestern has a way to get up for these games. Make the play on Northwestern.

Florida lost for the 2nd time this season last week. They played Georgia on a neutral field and lost 36-17. That certainly looks pretty bad, but it was very misleading. Florida actually led 14-13 in the 3rd quarter but 3 turnovers took them out of the game. All of Georgia's TD's came on 3rd down. Missouri is just not the same team as they were a year ago, especially offensively. Last week they were forced into 9 straight 3 and outs vs Kentucky. WR Emanuel Hall has been out most of the year, and he has been the only downfield threat for Missouri. Drew Locke has seen his passing yards per attempt drop way off. Part of that reason is the change to Derek Dooley who is now the Missouri offensive coordinator. Dooley personally flushed the Tennessee program down the toilet and this is his first ever stint at OC. Here are Lock's numbers vs good defenses:

The Kansas Jayhawks broke a 14 game conference losing streak against sputtering TCU. The results were very misleading as TCU out-gained Kansas 504-307. Kansas also won the turnover battle finishing at +2, and TCU saw a drive stall at the Kansas 1 yard line, as well as fumbling at the Kansas 7. Kansas was completely outplayed but got all the breaks and still ended up just a 1 point winner at home. Iowa St. is a completely different team with a healthy Montgomery at RB and with freshman QB Brock Purdy. The Cyclones passing game behind Zeb Noland was generating just 6.6 yards per attempt and since Brock Purdy took over he has passed for 11.0 yards an attempt.  Additionally, the Iowa St. defense us one of the best in the land allowing just 4.9 yards per play and the Cyclones have played the toughest schedule in the country. This is easily a top #10 team now, but at 4-3 they are supplying some great hidden value. Make the play on Iowa St. 

This will be the third meeting between these teams since the start of last season all in Minnesota. The Vikings stole the playoff game with a miracle 61 yard TD completion with time running out. The Saints have quietly gone 15-4 in their last 19 regular season games. I think the Saints have a couple of scores to settle in this one and right now Drew Brees is playing at an ultra-high level, and the Minnesota injury report has now reached 16 players. The Saints are lighting the scoreboard for 34ppg and Brees passer rating is at 121.6. He has thrown for 13 TDs and 0 INT`s on the season. The only comparable offense Minnesota has faced is the LA Rams and they were exposed for 38 points and 556 total yards. Make the play on New Orleans.  

There isn't a whole lot at stake in this one other than pride as the loser will fall to 1-7 on the season. The Arizona offense has been poor all season and Josh Rosen is injured, but looks like he will play. The Cards beat the Niners for their only win on the season, but it took a 5 turnover surplus yo win by 10 points and they were out-gained by 227 yards. Arizona has yet to gain as much as 270 yards in a game, and San Francisco does have a good defense and solid running game. Cards averaging just over 10ppg outside the Niner game where they had 5 gifts. Both QB's have ugly numbers, but Beathard's are somewhat better. Make the play on San Fransisco.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are always a dangerous team. They head to Iowa St. with a 5-2 record on the season. It will come down to a pair of true freshman QB's with Tech's Alan Bowman against the Cyclones Brock Purdy. Bowman has already thrown for 2,088 yards on the season with 14 TDs and 4 INTs. Purdy has played just 2 games but has passed at 11.9 yards per attempt and has a dead Cyclone offense that averaged 17.5ppg prior to hum playing to one that is averaging 37ppg with him. he is a duel threat contributing 122 yards on the ground on 31 carries. The Texas Tech defense is better than it has been but not nearly on the level with Iowa St. The Cyclones rank among the best stop units in the country, and allow just 4.9 yards a play to teams that average 6.4. RB Montgomery is healthy again and has benefited from Purdy at QB. Overall Iowa St. is now the best 3-3 team in the country and are on an extra week of rest. Iowa St. has held Tech to 23 points total the last 2 years and just 321 yards a game, while generating over 500 yards a game themselves. Make the play on Iowa St. 

The best thing for the New York Giants right now is to get out of New York. The media is always harsh in the Big Apple. The good news for New York is they are coming off a Thursday game, have had extra time to prepare, and the Falcons will arguably be the worst team on their schedule to this point. The Falcons offense is really banged up and will be handicapped by players out or injured. The Giants own a 10-0 ATS mark since 1995 coming off a Thursday game, and after having lost 3 straight this team is in need of a win. Since their explosive Super Bowl season in 2016, the Falcons have not been the same and own just 5 wins by more than 7 points. Make the play on New York.

The Giants are giving up points at an alarming rate, while the Falcons have topped the 30 point mark in 4 of their 6 games. It certainly looks like a shootout is about to take place, but then there is the contrarian nature of the NFL and history suggests otherwise. Here are some examples. A team that is allowing 27ppg or more on the season and has allowed 25 or more in 4 straight games is 4-26 O/U in their last 30 games, including 0-10 O/U in the last 10. Giants have played 14-33 O/U in their last 47 vs a team that allows 24 or more points per contest. The last 10 meetings between these teams, with no overtime has gone 0-9-1 O/U with no game topping 50 total points scored, averaging just 34 points a game. Make the play on the under.

A big inter-conference meeting between the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens will take place this Sunday in Baltimore. It will be the high octane New Orleans offense averaging 36ppg against the Ravens defense that is allowing just 12.8ppg. Drew Brees has been about perfect all season throwing for 11 TDs and 0 INT's with a passer rating of 122.3. Brees has completed nearly 80% of his throws at a chunky 8.7 yards per attempt. He also has the Saints at 20-12 ATS as a dog over the last 5 years. he is also 15-9 ATS vs elite pass defenses (4.3-6.3 yards an attempt) over the same period scoring 27.3ppg. Joe Flacco is a tick better this year than over the past 5, but he has never duplicated his Super Bowl winning season. Brees has weapons all over the field and has completed passes of 23 yards or more to 9 different receivers already. Saints in this one.

The NY Jets have certainly both suffered and benefited from their rookie QB Sam Darnold. he has been great in wins but awful in losses. It may be the Jets defense that has fans worried a lot more as they have surrendered 1,022 yards in the last 3 games in the air. The Vikings are 3-2-1 and have lost in LA to the unbeaten Rams, and lost a stinker at home vs Buffalo. Darnold is carrying a rather low 83.7 passer rating into this contest, and has been picked off 7 times. Cousins has been better than his career average passer rating this season at 102.1 and has 12 TDs to just 3 INT's and connecting on 72.1% of his throws. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have already caught just shy of 100 passes with 1150 yards and 7 TDs are more than the Jets can handle. Make the play on Minnesota. 

The Tennessee Titans have had a ridiculous stretch of games. Over the last 4 weeks they have taken on Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Baltimore, and now have to head across the country to take on The LA Chargers. Last week showed just how bad the offense is as they got off only 29 plays the entire game, and gained just 105 yards. They have still failed to score more than 2 TDs in any of their 6 games. The Chargers have put up 23 points or more in every game and Phil Rivers is having a big season with 15 TDs to just 3 INTs and a 115.1 passer rating. Marcus Mariota has really struggled this season, as he seems to be limited in options and the running game has disappeared over the last with just 225 yards. Chargers 2 losses came against the unbeaten Rams and KC who just lost for the first time last week. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

The NCAAF playoffs look a bit clearer right now after 4 top teams bit the bullet last week. Things have a way of changing quickly however as we saw last week. Ohio St. has moved up to the #2 ranked team in the country, and this week they will head to W. Lafayette, Ind. to take on Purdue. Last year Purdue coach Brian Brohm too over a dead Purdue program that had 10 wins the previous 4 years, and immediately got them into a Bowl game against Arizona that they won. Brohm is an offensive genius and his teams have averaged 39.2ppg in his coaching career. he had returning QB Elijah Sindelar returning, and was hopeful things could get turned up a notch, but Sindelar struggled in 2 losses to start the season, where they averaged just 23ppg. David Blough who injured his leg last November and the offense took off. Blough has thrown 10 TD passes to 2 INT's, at 9.8 yards per attempt in his starts and the Boilermaker offense is averaging 38ppg, and is now a top 10 offense. Ohio St. is 7-0, and the line is over-compensating for their successful coach, and #2 ranking. The Buckeyes to this point of the season are not on the level defensively as all other Urban Meyer Ohio St. teams as they have been basically average. The running game is not as potent, but where they shine is in the air with Haskins at QB, but Purdue has been just as good with Blough. These teams are a lot closer than they look with Blough now at QB for Purdue, which displays hidden value. Urban Meyer coached teams are hard to bet against as they are 122-86-4 ATS. There is a weakness however as they are 5-18 ATS as a conference road favorite from -11.5 to -23, failing to cover by -6.28 points per game. Purdue is also in a momentum situation that is 100-45 ATS, one of my most predictive situations. Make the play on Purdue.