Lost in the Louisville disappointing season was the fact that Lamar Jackson had a better season than last year when he won the Heisman Trophy. What Louisville could not overcome was a horrific defense that allowed 27.1ppg. Louisville was at one time just 5-4 before closing the season with 3 straight wins and covers, but against much lesser opponents than they will face today. Louisville did not beat a single opponent that finished the season with 8 or more wins. The defense was not only bad, they will not have the services of their top 2 defenders in DB Jaire Alexander, and pass rusher James Hearn. This just further weakens an already bad defense. Freshman Kaytaon Thompson did a decent job in relief after Fitzgerald was injured vs Ole Miss, and he has had 5 weeks taking all the snaps, and is said to look very good. He is also a runner, and I don't think the Miss St. offense is going to suffer a decline, especially with a poor Louisville defense. Miss St. has given up just 31 to Georgia, and Alabama, and I think they could win this game if they hold Louisville to that. Louisville apples to a 29-70 ATS Bowl system based in part by their 3 straight ATS wins coming into their Bowl game. Make the play on Miss St.

The Cotton Bowl will host the biggest Bowl of the season thus far as 11-2 Ohio St. squares off with 11-2 USC. Ohio St. is equal to both Alabama, and Georgia from the line of scrimmage this season. All 3 teams are +2.9 yards per play better than the average of all their opponents. USC is not even close. What kept Ohio St. out of the playoffs is the dud they threw up at Iowa. USC may have been in the conversation, if they did not throw up a dud at Notre Dame. While Ohio St. has a tremendous statistical advantage here, they have made costly mistakes, that have held them down. Against Oklahoma, Penn St., Iowa, Mich St., and Wisconsin they out-gained the 5 toughest opponents by 6.4 to 5 yards per play. If you take out the Iowa debacle, it is significantly more than that. I can't justify not playing them here with such a decided advantage in the trenches. USC has the offense to score some her, but their defense is simply not equipped to stop Ohio St. Sam Darnold seems to be back in control, but he has not hurt anyone with his legs this year, as he did a year ago. J.T. Barrett has 9000+ passing yards, and 3000+ rushing yards, and a boatload of experience. Urban Meyer in playoff games, championship games, and Bowl games is 14-5 ATS, including 11-2 ATS when his team is better than .750 but less than unbeaten. The only 2 failed covers have come vs Clemson, 11-0 ATS vs anyone else. Make the play on Ohio St.

The 7-5 Kentucky Wildcats will take on the surging 9-3 Northwestern Wildcats in the Music City Bowl in Nashville,TN. Kentucky with an 8th win could match the most wins by any Kentucky team since at least 1979. Nashville is just 3 hours from campus, and the previous 4 times they have played here, it was a sellout, they will have huge fan support. Northwestern has been on fire, winning and covering 7 straight games, but that just fuels line value on the other side. Teams that have covered 4 straight or more heading into their Bowl game, are just 58-90 ATS, and Northwestern falls into a 3-23 ATS subset of this situation, winning just 6 of the 26 outright! Make the play on Kentucky.

The Arizona St. Sun Devils at 7-5 on the season will take on the 8-4 NC State Wolf Pack in the Sun Bol in El Paso,TX. Should be perfect football weather with a game time temperature expected around 68 with a light breeze. The Wolf pack has a high ceiling to their 'A" game, beating Louisville, and scoring 31 vs Clemson, generating nearly 500 yards, holding a lead late into the 3rd quarter. NC State has become QB-U, as the Pack has 4 QB's in the NFL, and if Jr. Ryan Finley declares for the draft, they will soon have 5. The Sun Devils have struggled offensively vs the better defenses on their schedule, as vs Stanford, USC, SD St., Utah, an Washington they averaged just 20.4ppg, and close to 40ppg vs everyone else. NC State is an above average defense, and would expect them to hold the Sun Devils below their season average, while NC State scores above theirs. NC State also fits a 120-69 ATS Bowl situation here. Make the play on NC State.

Wake Forest has won 7 games or more now, each of the past 2 seasons for the first time in 8 years. They own wins vs Louisville and NC State this season. The offense is as good as we have seen here in years averaging 33.6ppg. Texas A&M comes in at 7-5 lacking a signature win on the season, beating Nichols St., LA Lafayette, Arkansas, SC, Florida, N. Mexico, and Ole Miss, and was over-matched vs every good team on their schedule. despite only having 4 road games all season. The Aggies allowed 40+ in 4 games on the season. Wake Forest will have the crowd behind them here, as they will be playing just a 90 minute drive from campus. A&M in the midst of a coaching change, and it will be a challenge getting this team motivated. A&M is in a poor 94-128 ATS Bowl situation as well. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Luke Falk has been one of the best college QB's in history. The numbers this season are not nearly as good as what they have been, as yards per attempt is down, TD passes down, and INT's are up. Perhaps most revealing is the breakdown. Falk dominated the poor teams on the schedule, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon St. and Montana St. In those 6 games he threw 20 TDs and o INT's. Th other 6 games vs Boise St., USC, Arizona, Stanford, Utah, Washington he threw 10 TDs to 13 INT's, hardly numbers warranted by a star QB. Michigan St has a very strong defense, and Falk will be missing his 2 top WRs both suspended. Michigan St. held 7 opponents to 14 or less on the season, and should score enough here for the win. Make the play o Michigan St.

There is one hidden factor in this game, and that is the real power of the TCU defense. They got ripped apart by the elite offensive teams they faced this season. The 5 teams they faced that averaged from 34.5ppg to 46.2ppg. averaged 34ppg against them. That being said all 5 of those teams scored below their season average by about a TD per game. The 8 other games they played, not including a shutout vs a FCS team, the Frogs held opponents averaging 18.7 to 34.3ppg to 7.4ppg! Stanford would qualify to be in this group. These teams averaged 20ppg less than their average, and 5 of them scored 7 or less. Make the play on TCU.

The last 13 Bowl teams that came into their Bowl game allowing 30 or more points per game are 0-11-2 ATS. Teams that average over 40 points a game are 72-94-1 ATS as well, and average scoring just 30ppg. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Sometimes you need to watch what you say, or like in a court of law, it can, and will be used against you. Long time Athletic Director at Texas, now special assistant to the President, said the following:

" Our bad years are not that bad, take a school like Missouri, our bad years, are better than their good years."

Bowls are in large part about motivation, and you can be sure the Tigers are going to be bringing a little extra to this contest. This is a changed Missouri team, one that started 0-5 vs FBS schools and ended 6-0. The 6 game streak saw them go from getting outscored 42-18 to finishing the last 6 out-scoring opponents 52-21. It is the biggest such turn around in NCAA Football history, 1st half of the season to 2nd. That equals 55 ppg. WOW! Texas has a good defense, but looking back at Missouri's game with Gorgia, before they got hot they put 28 on Georgia, who is much better than Texas defensively. The Tigers have won and covered 3 straight Bowls. Texas is 9-18 ATS in their last 27 Bowl games (1-5 vs a team with 7 or less wins). This will be just the 4th of those 27 Bowls played prior to 12/28, meaning this is a fringe Bowl for this type of team. SEC favorites of -3.5 or less are 23-8 ATS in Bowls (11-1 ATS last 12). The SEC has dominated the B-12 Conference at 17-4 ATS in Bowl games, and an active 16-1 ATS subset. Make the play on Missouri.

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

Boston College fans should appear in large numbers, as they are just 3 hours away from NY City, at Yankee Stadium. This game is the furthest north played outside of all Bowl games, and whoever runs the ball better is likely going to be the winner. Game time temperature around 20 degrees, with windchill about 10, dropping during the game, and we could see wind chill values at or below 0 before the game is over. BC was a different team once they started to hand the ball off to A.J. Dillon. Through 6 games, BC averaged a paltry 16.3ppg, as Dillon carried 89 times for just 333 yards, at 3.7 per carry, and BC was 2-4. The last 6, Dillon carried 179 times for 1091 yards at 6.1 yards per tote, and BC scored 36ppg, going 5-1. Despite the running heroics, it helped BC keep balanced, as it opened up the passing game, and they finished with 23 rushing TD's and 24 passing TD's. The BC offensive line is the best unit on the field. They allowed just 13 sacks, and were penalized just 11 times all season, and that is the difference maker. Iowa finished 11th in the B-10 rushing, not a good sign for this type a game. Kirk Ferentz has been around a long time, but he has lost 5 straight Bowl games by 7,17,17,27 and 29 points, so he seems to use them more for looking ahead to the next season instead of winning. The ACC is 41-24-3 ATS in Bowl games from -1.5 to +5 including 27-11-1 ATS vs P5 opponents. Make the play on BC.

The Florida St. Seminoles were supposed to be in the running for a National Championship. How things have changed. The Seminoles lost QB DeAndre Francois in game 1, suffered through a myriad of injuries, and now have lost their coach as well, and at 6-6, on the line is their 40th consecutive winning season. It took wins vs LA Monroe, and Delaware St. to secure a Bowl bid. The Noles have beaten just 1 other team  by a margin big enough to cover this one. Slorida St. is 19-6 ATS in their Bowl game if favored by less than -7, and 4-5-1 ATS otherwise, and tends to under-achieve as a big favorite. Southern Miss represents themselves well here, as this is their 21st Bowl game since 1980, and lost just 1 by 17 points, all others covered this number. C-USA Bowl dogs of +7 or more are 15-7 ATS as well. Florida St. in a 1-19 ATS situation here. Make the play on Southern Miss.

Duke Coach David Cutliffe has done a remarkable job at Duke. he has coached in 9 Bowl games (some at Ole Miss), and his team's have been a well prepared 7-2 ATS. N. Illinois has limited offense, and are not a good come from behind team. Duke started the season at 4-0, but lost 6 straight, and rebounded with a pair of wins in their last 2 games to finish 6-6 at get here. The MAC Conference has laid an egg vs P5 teams in a Bowl game (including the Big East), when getting less than +7. The MAC in this spot is 0-10 ATS and failing to cover by 10ppg. make the play on Duke.

West Virginia's offense has been led by Will Grier, and has been ruled out of the Mountaineers Bowl game vs Utah. More bad news is top RB Justin Crawford will sit out as well. There is big drop off on the W. Virginia offense as Grier threw 388 times, and Crawford ran 191 times, and Grier had 63 runs as well. Those numbers account for nearly all the WVU snaps this season. Utah is not a good offensive team, but the defense is very good. Big-12 Bowl teams from X-Mas to New year's eve  are 27-13 to the under as well. make the play on the under in this one.

When the Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 43-8 in the 2013-14 season, the young talent on both sides of the ball had many suggesting they would be winning a lot more. They have not won one since, and the evidence is mounting that this team is starting to erode year by year. A quick look shows in 21013, when the won the Super Bowl the derfense allowed 14.3ppg, here is what has followed:

2014    16.9

2015    17.6

2016    18.6

2016    21.0

It isn't just the defense, the offense that averaged 26.6, 25.1, and 5.4 from 2013-15, has averaged 22.2, and 22.9 the last 2 years. All together this team has eroded by 7ppg defensively, and 3.7ppg offensively, or a combined 10.7ppg. They are still a good team, and injuries have held this team back some. A perspective would be the fact that this team allowed 30+ points in a game just 4 times form 2011-13 and 5 times in their last 8 weeks this season. The last one, 42 at home, sets them up in a brutal situation today. A team that allowed 42 points their last game, and is now playing as a road dog vs a team on a 2 or more game winning streak is 1-41 SU, and 8-34 ATS. Make the play on Dallas.

The Tennessee Titans have lost 2 straight games, and while the optics are not there for this team right now, they still control their own playoff destiny, no worse than a wild card winning their final 2 games. The optics were different just 2 weeks ago when they were 8-4. The NFL is like the stock market, buy low, and sell high. The issue for this team as I see it, is the offense is better running the no-huddle, and it wasn't until they got behind, that they trended toward it. The game plan this week will no doubt include more. The Titans are a different team at home where they have beaten Baltimore, and Seattle, and won 5 straight. LA is coming off of 2 hugely physical and emotional games vs Philadelphia, and last week at Seattle. Their 42-7 pounding of Seattle holding them to 149 total yards has a lot to do with the over-lay here. Week 16 home dogs with a total of greater than 37 are 72-36 ATS. Make the play on Tennessee.

The New York Jets have thrown up a pair of duds the last 2 weeks, vs Denver and New Orleans. That is not much of a surprise, as New York has a lonely 1 win on the road this season, vs 0-15 Cleveland. they have been a much better team at home, and to a tough schedule of opponents. The jets beat Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Kansas City here, and lost to New England, Atlanta, and Carolina all by 1 possession. I certainly think they will hold their own here vs the Chargers. LA started 0-4, and had little margin for error to sniff the post-season, and last week's loss at Kansas City has left those hopes on life support. jets fit many good situations here as well. Make the play on the New York jets.

NFL SURFACE AND VENUE CHANGES NOT A HEALTHY BET:

A lot has been searched and written regarding changing surfaces in the NFL. While nothing I have read has shown any major advantage or disadvantage, I happen to disagree, when all the right elements are applied. Today in the newsletter we will explore what happens to a significant road favorite, changing venues (home), and now away and going from an artificial surface to grass, things often do not work out as they are expected.

THE PARAMETERS:

1) Play against team going from artificial home surface to grass road surface

2) Play against team is a road favorite of -7 or more.

Believe it or not, that is it!

These teams have stumbled greatly going:

33-55-3 ATS covering just 37.5% of all games. 

When you consider week 16 is the home dog week in the NFL: 78-55-7 ATS 58.6%, and this system is 1-8 ATS in week 16


This all rides unfavorably against Minnesota this afternoon. 

Make the play on Green Bay

A Bowl team coming off a prolific offensive game heading into their Bowl game have been awful teams to bet on. The Appalachian St. Mountaineers put up 63 in their final regular season game. Bowl teams that scored 60 or more in their last game, are 13-30 ATS in their Bowl game, including 0-13 ATS most recently. make the play on Toledo.

The Army is 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 games played in Texas, and will be looking for the big sweep this season. They have won the Commander and Chief trophy for the first time since 1996, beat Navy, and the hat-trick would be to win their Bowl Game. Military teams are tough to prepare for running the flex-bone, and in a Bowl game that seems to be doubled-down, as Military schools are 30-14 ATS in Bowls since 1980, as well as 19-3 ATS when facing a team better than .600. Make the play on Army.

Bowl teams that enter their Bowl game with 2 losses, and one of those losses was in their last game, often get mistaken for a disappointed team. After all, a 1 loss team would likely be playing in a major Bowl, and having lost their last game, the Bowl is obviously much less. That has not been the case, as all Bowl teams with 2 losses, with one of those losses occurring in their last game, and facing an opponent off a win are 17-1-1 ATS. Make the play on S. Florida.

The Wyoming Cowboys have an NFL caliber QB in Josh Allen. The problem is he is protected by a poor offensive line, a poor running game, and he has not played since Nov. 11th due to a shoulder injury. he has been upgraded to probable. His numbers have suffered this season and his 6.6 yards per attempt and 56% completion percentage is down from 8.6 a year ago, and his replacement Nic Smith is at 54% and 6.4, not much difference. The Cowboys win on defense. They have allowed 12.6ppg in their last 5, and are now 12-1-1 to the under in their last 14. C. Michigan scored big against bad defenses, and were limited vs good defenses, and look for that to continue here. Mountain West Bowl teams are 36-19 to the under when the total is less than 58, as well as being 21-4 to the under when posted as a -7 or less favorite. Make the play on the under.

There is probably no better story in NCAAF this season than UAB. The Blazers put an end to their football program after the 2014 season, but started it up again this season. They were projected for 2.5 wins, and finished with 8. This team has over-achieved all season, and have a chance to win the school's first Bowl game. The Blazers come in owning 4 SU wins as a dog of an average of +8 points per game. Ohio, U. is a well coached team under Frank Solich, but he has not had much success in Bowl games, at just 2-8 SU in his last 10, dropping 3 of 5 SU as a favorite. The Bobcats dropped their last 2 games of the season after upseting Toledo, ad will have a chore filling holes in their defensive line, as 3 starters are out. They will also be missing their top RB in A.J. Ouellette, who has been downgraded to doubtful. Make the play on UAB.

ST.PETERSBURG BOWL - Tropicana Field - St.Petersburg, FL

The Temple Owls will take on the Florida International Panthers tonight in the St. Petersburg Bowl. I'm not sure what Temple has done this season to have them posted as a TD favorite, or what Florida International hasn't done. Temple barely made it here at 6-6, and their 6 wins came at the hands of opponents that combined to finish the season with 19 total wins. Translation: No wins vs a winning team. Temple changed QB's to better results, but deceptive at the same time because they beat no one of significance. Florida International is in Miami, or about 250 miles from St. Petersburg, so this will be a defacto home game for the Panthers as well. The Panthers were 8-4 on the season, and have a much better QB, and with 19 seiors on this team, they will be playing hard. Temple is off a couple of big seasons, and playing FIU in a Bowl game is not exactly motivational. last night we watched a C-USA team beat a pretty good AAC team 52-10. Since the AAC was formed, its teams that made a Bowl game are 7-16 SU/9-14 ATS, and 0-5 SU vs C-USA. AAC Bowl teams with 8 wins or less are 1-8 SU in Bowl games, 3-6 ATS. FIU fits a Bowl situation that is 55-25 ATS here as well. Make the play on FIU.

The 1st ever DXL Frisco Bowl will put the 7-5 LA Tech Bull Dogs vs the SMU Mustangs. This is an interesting match up, simply because newly hired SMU Head Coach Sonny Dykes was the coach at LA Tech from 2010-12, before taking the job at Cal. Dykes was hired just 9 days ago, and will coach this game, so his `air raid` offense may add a few wrinkles to the SMU attack, but for the most part left-over assistants will be doing most of the play calling. Most gamblers prefer the over, but do get a bit edgy when the number exceeds 70, as it seems like such a high mountain to climb. The fact is Bowl totals of greater than 66 have gone 31-13 O/U (23-8 O/U in December Bowls) since 2010, and with a Bowl favorite of -7.5 or less we get 23-6 O/U. (17-4 O/U in December Bowls). The 2009 cut-off is not arbitrary, it is the point in time, when NCAA Football scoring was taking off. The period from 2006-09 saw the average NCAAF game have a posted total of 51.9, and since then, 56.1. This has allowed high totals have a better chance of connecting. SMU averaged 40.2ppg this year, but allowed 35.5ppg, and playing games vs a defense allowing greater than 25ppg, their games combined for 79.2ppg. LA Tech averaged 51.5ppg in Dykes last season, and 11 of his last 12 there went over the total. His team averaged 34.1ppg at Cal, with 10 of his last 14 there over the total. His final year at both schools (when he had all his own players), saw the total go 21-5 O/U. LA Tech this season faced 2 teams that averaged 38ppg and allowed an average of 52.5ppg, while their offense against teas that allowed more than 30ppg averaged 32.2ppg. Make te play over the total in this one.

If you watched the MNF game between the Patriots and the Dolphins, Miami looked like a playoff caliber team, and New England looked like a poor team. Well, there must be something in the water in Miami, as the Dolphins have beaten New England here 12 of the last 20 times, including 4 of the last 5. As Belichick would say, onto Pittsburgh. Unlike Miami, the Pats are 6-2 SU in their last 8 trips to the Steel City, and 6-2 ATS as well. It is never easy playing against the patriots to begin with, but facing them off a loss, is quite frankly impossible. Since the start of the 2002 season, when the Brady & Belichick combo was getting entrenched here, the Pats are 35-13-1 ATS off a loss, and a ridiculous 21-0-1 ATS off a loss facing an elite team (better than .570), if they were less than a -7 point favorite. The Pats will show up big here, knowing the loss to Miami is meaningless if they win here, as they will once again control their own destiny for home field advantage through the AFC Championship game. Brady is 8-2 in his last 10 vs Pittsburgh with a 117.2 passer rating, burning the not-so-steel curtain for 26 TD passes and just 3 INT's, and 32ppg. My NFL December Game of the Year is on New England.

The Minnesota Vikings knew their defense was going to be good, but the surprise has been the offense. The offense has averaged just shy of 24ppg on the season. Case Keenum has had a lot to do with that as he has had a breakout season. The defense has allowed less than 20 points in 9 of their 13 games. Cincinnati has to be out of will. The Bengals were a playoff team the last 5 years, but you could see the will was gone after blowing a lead vs Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago, as they were a no show at Chicago last week in a 33-7 loss. The Vikings are a cover machine at home, where they are now 33-13 ATS in their last 46, and overall this team is 40-15-1 ATS in their last 56 games. They are also in a great situation as from week 13 on, a home favorite of -10 to -17, facing a team with a winning percentage of less than .630 are 125-70-2 in the last 197 instances. Make the play on Minnesota.

If you look at this game on paper the Giants should get blown out. The fact is this is an ultra strong NFL Contrarian Special. Conference games from week 6 out, since the start of the 2000 season, that feature a team with a scoring margin edge of 20 or more (Phila 11.8/NYG -9.4 = 21.2), to a line of less than -14.5 and their opponent is on 6 days rest or less, are 7-51 ATS. Play on the NY Giants.

The San Diego Chargers have completely turned their season around. After a punishing 0-4 start, they have been 7-2 over their last 9 games, and have a big division game in Kansas City this week. The Chargers have now become an over-valued team, and have no business being a slight favorite in Kansas City. Kansas City has become under-valued, as they started 5-0 but have been 2-6 since. It has been a simple equation for the Chargers, turn the opponent over and win, don't do it and lose. The Chargers are 0-4 SU/ATS when they force 0 turnovers and 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when they force at least 1, lately they are 17-4 on turnovers, which likely won't continue. The Chiefs don't turn the ball over much (7 clean games, 4 games with just 1). Kansas City is also a great team in the role of a home dog logging a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark as a home dog from week 6 on if both they and their opponent are off a win. The Chargers fit the profile of a team in a bad situation, as from game 8 on a team that is on the road and 1 game over .500 against a .500 or better team are just 62-100 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn't the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average +5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from +2 to +10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn't very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn`t the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average 5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from 2 to 10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn`t very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The 10-2 Troy Trojans will take on the 9-4 N. Texas Mean Green in New Orleans. troy is getting a lot of support, ass they had one of the biggest upsets of the year, when they went don to baton Rouge, and beat LSU 24-21. Troy has had their best team's in their FBS history over the last 2 years, combining for a 20-5 SU record. The offense remains explosive, but not quite up to the standard set a year ago, but still 30ppg. Where this team has excelled is on defense where they have not allowed any team to top 25 points against them the only team in the country to have done that this season. N. Texas may look like a defensive slouch on the season allowing 33.8ppg, but their 4 losses, all to teams they were huge under dogs against, FAU (2), SMU, and Iowa, they allowed 48.8ppg against. Their other more competitive games saw them allow a more respectable 24.3ppg. North Texas will play this game without star running back Jeffrey Wilson, while Troy's win over Arkansas St. in the Conference Title game saw them lose 6 players, and 3 of them are WR's. Overall, C-USA totals have been big money in Bowl games, to the under, when the total is less than 64, where they are 3-22 O/U since 1998. Make the play on the under.

The post-season is no longer in the offing for Denver or Indianapolis, so tonight's game will be for pride. Indianapolis is off a brutal bad weather game, in which 6" of snow fell during the game. The passing and kicking games were muted by the weather. This week Indianapolis is back at home under the dome, but not in a good spot. Thursday Night teams off an overtime game vs a team that did not play overtime last week are a brutal 3-21 ATS. That includes 1-16 ATS in the last 17, and 0-13 ATS if not a +4.5 under dog or more. Denver completely manhandled the NY Jets last week, shutting them out 23-0 and limiting them to 100 yards of total offense, and just 6 first downs. A team that allowed 7 or less 1st downs in their last game are 43-16 ATS in their next one, and Thursday favorites are 120-87-7 ATS, as the better team seems to have more to prepare for a short week. Make the play on Denver.

The New England patriots behind Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been a lethal combination, and continue to be. I don't think anyone would be surprised if they once again landed in the Super Bowl. They will take the field tonight without Rob Gronkowski, and he is a vital weapon for the Pats, especially in the red-zone. The Pats historically have played under as a heavy road chalk as they are 6-13 O/U as a road favorite from -8 to -15. Scoring in the NFL started to surge at the start of the 2012 season, and the games that have felt the least impact have been huge home dogs. Since that time NFL home dogs of greater than +7.5 points are 8-35 O/U. (falling short by -7.63ppg). Weaknesses don't last long around Bill Belichick. The New England defense allowed 32ppg through the first 4 games, and since no team has scored more than 17, and the Pats are allowing a league best 11.9ppg. Make the play on the under.

Sunday December 10th, 2017

The Cleveland Browns have had a poor offense for quite some time, and the Packers offense behind Brett Hundley has been awful as well. The Browns defend a lot better than their record, and Green Bay has had success vs poor offensive teams. Weather is often an issue off the lake in Cleveland in December, and it will be today as well with winds from 15-20 MPH gusting to a high as 30 MPH. Cleveland is 18-29-1 O/U in their last 48 December home games, including 4-15 O/U since X-Mas Eve of 2006, and 0-7 O/U to a toatl of 39 or less. Make the play on the under.

This is one of my favorite games of the year. I love the tradition, and make a point to watch it every year. The Army has become a lot more competitive the last few years. 

Here is an eye opener since 1980:

When Army comes in averaging less than 24.7ppg    5-15 ATS including 1-13 ATS as long as they are not a dog of more than 14 points

When Army comes in averaging more than 24.7ppg   10-6 ATS including 8-1 if competitive game from -6 to +7

Additionally, the team with more rest than their opponent is 8-2 ATS last 10. Make the play on Army.

This series has seen the last 11 meetings play under the total. That has become well publicized, and this game opened at a fair price of 52. The public immediately bet this total down to 48, and as the game approached, and snow become the operative word in the forecast, this game has continued to plummet, and is down to 44 as of this writing and may drop more prior to the start of the game. The snow does not impact these teams, nor are snow games generally lower scoring. They both run the ball on almost every play, and the kicking game is going to have little impact as neither team kicks many FG's. The value pendulum is now flipped to the over as we have 8 points and counting from the opener of value. Make the play on the over.

The New Orleans and the Atlanta Falcons will meet twice in the next 3 weeks, so the Falcons playoff chances will for a large part, be determined in the two games. Atlanta had an unstoppable offense a year ago, when everything went right. This year, it has not nearly been the same. Atlanta's offense has regressed 11.3ppg year-over-year. Matt Ryan has already thrown more interceptions this year than last, and the yards per attempt have gone from 9.4 to 7.8. New Orleans has been on a roll, and the running game has been unstoppable, which has Drew Brees in a much better place. Brees has the luxary of passing for balance vs necessity, and the numbers show it. Last year Brees threw 15 INT's, this year just 5. His yards per attempt are up to 8.1. While the Saints offense is unchanged on the scoreboard over a year ago, the more ball control, has allowed the rebuilt defense time to breath, and they have shaved 9ppg off last year's total. Brees has excelled recently vs good, but not great defenses, those allowing 17.3 to 23.3 points per game. he is 23-14 ATS against them, scoring 28.9ppg, carrying a passer rating of 104.6. Falcons home field is not providing what it did last year, as they have lost 3 here already, two of which came to Buffalo, and Miami. The Saints after 3 straight 7-9 seasons, are 10-1 in their last 11, and building a Super Bowl resume, much the same as Atlanta did a year ago, and I think they add to that resume tonight. Make the play on New Orleans.

This is a big time match up between 10-1 Philadelphia, and 7-4 Seattle. The Eagles have become in most people's minds the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL, and why not. The Eagles have won 9 straight, and covered 8 of them. What gets over-looked is the fact that they have beaten 1 team that currently has a winning record, and that was by 5 points. Seattle may not be as potent as they once were, but at 7-4, they still have plenty of talent, and winning in Seattle is not an easy task. They are 42-8 SU here since the start of 2012, and none of those losses were by more than 7 points. Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog, winning 6 of the 9 straight up. Philadelphia has blown out their last 2 opponents, but in doing so, they set themselves up in a 3-23 ATS situation. Make the play on Seattle, and don't be surprised if they win outright.

It has been a season of misery and disappointment for the NY Giants, as they have gone from a playoff team in 2016 to 2-9 this season, with no hopes for the playoffs. The offense has been riddled with injuries, and has taken a step back averaging just 15.6ppg, and even worse than that over their last 5 games at 13.4ppg. The Giants last 2 games have combined to see 51 points scored by all teams, and when 51 or less points are scored in a team's last game, they are 25-10 to the over, and the Raiders are 21-8-2 to the over in their last 31 at home. More importantly here, this game fits a 39-4 situation to the over. Make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have all kinds of issues, as they are 1-29 SU in their last 30, and here we are in December, and they are still looking for their first win. This is a team that has carried a strong home vs road dichotomy in their games. This season, they have averaged just 11ppg at home and allowed 20ppg, but on the road, they are scoring 19ppg, allowing 31.2ppg. This was also the case all of last season, scoring and allowing more on the road. The Browns last 21 road games have seen their opponent score 30+ in 2/3 of them, 27+ in 18/21, and 24+ in 20/21. The Browns offense has reached 20 points or more in half of their last 12 road games, while not topping 20 in 10 straight at home. They will have Josh Gordon in the line up, and Coach Hue Jackson says he will be instrumental in the offense this week. Chargers have allowed 24 or more points in 7 of their last 10 at home, and Cleveland has averaged 25ppg here in the last 2. Cleveland is 10-2 to the over in their last 12 on the road, while the Chargers are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 as a home favorite. Bigger than all that is the fact that road teams that scored 17 points or less, in at least their last 2 games, and also average 17 points or less on the season, and are playing to a total greater than 39, are 39-4 to the over last 43 occurrences. My NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

 It isn`t to often the Denver Broncos have a season this poor. The worst season they have had since at least 1989 was the 4-12 team in 2010, and they enter this game at 3-8. Denver is 0-7 SU/ATS in their last 7 games, but it hasn`t been quite as bad as it looks. The Broncos have made 18 turnovers or 2.6 a contest, while forcing just 4. Those numbers have a way of turning around. The Dolphins defense, that allowed no more than 20 points in any of their first 5 games, has allowed 27 or more in each of their last 6, to an average of 34.2ppg. I think the Broncos get in the winning column this week as they apply to a 52-11 ATS situation. Make the play on Denver.

The MAC Championship game will be a complete mismatch as Akron takes on Toledo. Akron, from my records will be the worst team to ever make a conference championship game. The Zips posted just a 7-5 mark on the season, and are below average on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They don't have a RB that has gained even as much as 350 yards on the season, and their QB Thomas Woodson has not played in 3 games due to a suspension, but will be available. Toledo raced off to a 21-0 1st quarter lead in the first meeting this season, and won't take their foot off the gas in a Championship game. Championship mismatches are few, but when they have occurred, it has been utter devastation. A team favored in a Championship game by 21 points are more, being played at a neutral site are 5-0 SU/ATS winning by an average score of 49-6, and covering by 17.6ppg. Lay the bundle and make the play on Toledo.

The Dallas Cowboys have really looked brutally bad the last 3 weeks, as they have failed to reach the 10 point mark in any of the 3 games. It certainly has influenced the line here, and public opinion regarding their game vs Washington. They each own a 5-6 record coming into this, and no matter the outcome here, neither of these teams are likely to make the playoffs, as they have 8 teams in front of them, and 2 others also at 5-6. Even running the table, which seems unlikely for either of these teams, might not be enough. Washington has done nothing to deserve being a road favorite for this one.Remember this Dallas offense averaged 31.7ppg the 6 weeks prior to going cold. It isn't so much cold, as it has been the turnovers, as they have made 8 in the last 3 games. Many will point to the absence of Ezekiel Elliott as the cause of the Dallas offensive futility. That is not the case. Elliott has carried for 4.1 yds. per attempt this year, and the last 3 weeks Dallas has averaged 4.4. The bigger problem was the injury to Tyron Smith, as Atlanta and Philadelphia, a pair of elite teams, had 12 sacks in his absence, and last week, upon his return gave up just 2, and on the season averaging less than that. Look for the Dallas offense to come to life after playing elite teams in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and a surging Charger's team in their last 3. Washington has allowed 33 or more points to 4 of the last 6 teams they have faced, including 33 vs this same Dallas team, and they have issues of their own. Losing RB Chris Thompson hurts both the running game and the passing game. Dallas has been a perfect 8-0 ATS (7-1 SU), at home as a PK or dog since 1990 vs Washington, winning 7 straight up, and a combined margin of +12ppg. I look for that to continue tonight in this one. The public has turned badly against America's team, as 65% favor the Skins here, but a road favorite in a division game, that carries a lot of their own baggage and injuries here, is not something I'm interested in backing. Make the play on Dallas.

It is not too often you get a red-hot team and getting points at the same time, but thus is the case for the New Orleans Saints as they take on the LA Rams today. The Saints are not only winning, they have been more of a power run offense than ever, and that just makes Drew Brees more dangerous. The Saints have lost the turnover battle in 3 of their last 4 games, normally a death sentence, but have won them all. The Rams after racking up 117 points in 3 games, were completely shut down last week vs Minnesota. Overall I think the Saints are a more experienced and complete team right now. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Carolina Panthers have their playoff destination in their own hands. While the Cam Newton led offense has had its share of struggles, the defense continues to carry this team week in and week out. They are coming off their bye week, and that has given this team some well needed fresh legs, and a chance to work on some offense. The Panthers defense has been extremely good on the road, holding all 5 opponents to season low yards. The Jets come in at 4-6, and have seen each of their last 7 games decided by one=possession. I like Carolina coming off a bye, as good teams often benefit more when they are, and this game fits a 22-0-1 ATS situation, based in part on that. Make the play on Carolina.

This is a weather play on the under.

This is a weather play on the UNDER.

This is a huge rivalry game, and a lot will be on the line for Clemson, who currently is in position to make another National Championship run. Dabo Swinney will seek his 100th win in Columbia in this game. Swinney's teams have lost just 29 total games, but 5 of those have come at the hands of the Gamecocks. Last year the Tigers mauled SC 56-7 so there is a huge payback on the line here. Clemson has not won at SC by more than 5 points since 2003, and are 0-5 ATS here in the last 5 meetings. This game fits a situation that is 55-14 ATS as well. Make the play on South Carolina.

The Iron Bowl is always a thrilling intense football teams that hate each other and do everything they have to do to come away with a win in this game. Coach Saban has never beaten an Auburn team with 9 or more wins, as he is 0-3 at Alabama, and was 0-3 at LSU, and 0-6 overall. The Tide are a great football team, but have really had an easy schedule to this point, and the tough teams they have played have stayed in the game with them home or away. Alabama is really banged up, and now thin at linebacker, and Auburn is going to deliver a punishing running game. Both these teams have elite defenses, but I think right now the Tide is vulnerable. Auburn beat then #1 Georgia easily, and has a chance to beat a #1 again. They will also get another shot at Georgia if they win here in the SEC Championship game. If they win out, they will be in with the resume they have put together, and I think they get the 2nd leg done in this one. Auburn fits a 73-31 ATS situation for this one as well, make the play on Auburn.

Central Connecticut St. has suspended their QB and key offensive lineman for today's FCS playoff game vs New Hampshire.

New Hampshire   -10   -110

The Missouri Tigers have reaslly struggled the past year or so, and opened the season with low expectations got off to a poor start and things were looking dark early. Then the light suddenly came on for this team which seems to show improvement every week. The Tigers have won 5 straight and are already Bowl eligible. Arkansas has had a tough season and at 4-7 there will be no Bowl, and not a whole lot to play for. I would not be surprised to see some young players getting a look here. Missouri isn't just winning they are destroying everything in their path, and the 5 straight wins have been by 177 points or 35.4ppg. Gonna ride this cash cow until someone slows them down. Make the play on Missouri.

The Naval Academy does a lot of recruiting in Texas, and whenever they come here, they tend to play above their level. The Navy is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 trips to Texas. Navy is also the best road dog in the country where they are 83-39-3 ATS in their last 125 games. Navy seldom gets blown out, as they have lost just 7 games over the last 5 years by more than 10 points, none this year despite battling South Florida, Memphis, and Notre Dame. Houston defense has been leaking oil allowing 474 yards a game in their last 6, and no less than 416 to anyone. Navy in this one.

The Washington Redskins stole one in Seattle 2 weeks ago, and last week they gave it back at New Orleans blowing a 15 point lead before losing in overtime. The Giants who most have left for dead, shocked the free-falling Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 in overtime. That sets them up in a bad spot for this one. teams off an overtime game and now have to play on the road in a short week, in a Thursday game are 2-17 ATS. Favorites have been tough to beat on Thanksgiving as they own a 40-19-1 ATS record to a line of -2 or more. Make the play on Washington.

The Egg Bowl will be played on Thanksgiving, as these hated in-state rivals will go at it once again. Last year Ole Miss suffered a totally humiliating defeat at home 55-20, so there will be a pretty significant revenge motive at work here. Secondly, Ole Miss is not eligible for a Bowl game this year even if they qualify, so this is their Bowl game. Ole Miss holds a 4-1 ATS mark in this series as a road dog. Ole Miss is also 11-4-1 ATS in this series with revenge, including 7-1 ATS when Mississippi has been a .700 team or better. Make the play on Ole Miss.

A lot has been made of the Dallas struggles without LB Sean Lee and also without RB Ezekiel Elliott. Certainly the results of their last 2 games would tend to verify that. Dallas has been beaten by a combined score of 64-16. So, suddenly Dallas has become a bad team to all that have 2 games on their immediate mind. We have to not lose sight of the fact that the losses came to Atlanta and Philadelphia, not 4-6 San Diego. They also turned the ball over 6 times, and Elliott ad Lee had nothing to do with that. The Chargers 4 wins have come against the Giants, Oakland, Denver, and last week vs a Buffalo team wheeling out a QB that threw 5 INT's in the first half, on their way to a +6 in turnover margin, and a 30 point win. Lost blindly i  all that was the fact they were out-gained from the line of scrimmage 6.44 yards a play to 5.96 yards a play. There is a lot of hidden value here. A team that saw their previous opponent turn the ball over 6 times are 56-74 ATS in their next game. A subset of that reads if they are posted as a road favorite in their next game they are 2-15 ATS. (0-7 ATS if it is a non-conference game). Dallas is 21-5-1 ATS from +4.5 to -1 at home if they have a winning percentage greater than 0 and less than .700. Make the play on Dallas.

The Detroit Lions have salvaged their season with 3 straight wins, and moved into the playoff hunt at 6-4. They will be going for 5 straight Turkey Day wins and covers against the surging Vikings, now 8-2, after recording their 5th straight win and cover, so something will have to give in this game. Detroit has beaten Green Bay, Cleveland, and Chicago, not exactly a gauntlet of elite teams, or even good teams. Some will look at the Detroit 14-7 win in Minnesota, and say they have proven they can not only play tough against this team, but beat them. A quick look at that game may suggest otherwise. The Vikings fumbled 3 times, and lost all 3, and out-gained the Lions 5.3 yards a play to 3.7 yards a play. Stafford was sacked 6 times, and Detroit had 10 plays for negative yardage, and Minnesota just 2. This is not a good spot for Detroit either. The Lions since the start of the 2005 season are 0-17 SU and 2-14-1 ATS losing by -13.41 points per game taking on an elite opponent, one with a winning percentage of greater than .780. That includes 0-8 ATS when the Lions themselves have been good coming in with a winning percentage of their own of .600 or better. Vikings have been a cover machine, now 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59. Minnesota can put a bow around the NFC Central with a revenge win here. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Monday Night match up between the visiting Atlanta Falcons vs the Seattle Seahawks has a lot of playoff implications. The Falcons have had injury and hangover issues after blowing a huge Super Bowl lead last year. They appear to be hitting their stride once again. While the offense has not put up big numbers, the defense has been so much better, as no team has scored more than 26 on them all season. They had 8 sacks last week vs Dallas, and Seattle has had issues on their offensive line all season. Seattle has scored 16 or less points in 4 games. Atlanta has the better offense here, and the once mighty Seattle defense is no average from the line of scrimmage. Ryan will have a good opportunity to exploit the Seahawks secondary who just lost Richard Sherman for the year, and Earl Thomas is nursing a hamstring injury. Adding to the injury woes, CB Shaquill Griffin injured his shoulder last week as is questionable. Matt Ryan has averaged 27.3ppg in his last 6 vs Seattle. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Dallas Cowboys are tied with a bunch of NFC teams at 5-4, and outside the current playoff picture. This is a critical game for Dallas, if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. The Eagles through 9 games are 8-1, and have the best record in the NFL. Dallas has to try and get it done without Ezekiel Elliott once again, but the bigger problem is T Tyron Smith's health. He missed last week, and Adrian Clayborn sacked Dak Prescott 6 times, and he went down 8 times total, and took a total beating. A weakened Dallas running game, is not helping. The Eagles have now scored 20+ points in 13 straight games, and are 9-1 in their last 10. Carson Wentz has really become an elite level QB in his 2nd year throwing for 23 TD's and just 5 INT's, with a 104.1 passer rating. Dak Prescott remains solid but his yards per attempt have dropped below 7 this season, after it being 8 last year. This is not the same offensive line for Dallas, and without Elliott, the offense really went nowhere last game. Eagles are off a bye, while Prescott took a beating last week. Eagles are 17-9 ATS off a bye, including 4-1 ATS as a road favorite. They also apply to a 141-76 ATS situation. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Detroit Lions moved to 5-4 with their 14 point win vs Cleveland last week. They remain in playoff contention, and will take on division rival Chicago, a 23-16 loser at home vs Green Bay. The Bears have struggled all season on offense as Mitchell Tribisky is a work in progress at QB. He enters with a passer rating of just 75.6, with the Bears averaging just 17.8ppg in his starts. Matthew Stafford has had one of his best seasons to date, with a passer rating of 96.3 and the Lion's offense is generating 27.1ppg. He has done a much better job with turnovers this season as he has tossed 17 TD passes to just 5 INT's. Bears loss to Green Bay last week has left them at 3-6 and the playoffs are pretty much gone now, and this could be a big letdown spot. Make the play on Detroit.

There were little expectations for the Missouri Tigers coming into this season. The Tigers managed just 4 wins a year ago, off a season where they had just 5 wins. The Tigers opened the season with 5 straight losses vs FBS opponents. They were out-scored in the 5 games 210-92. They have since turned things around, as the Tigers have won 4 straight, and have out-scored those 4 opponents by 215-66. While they have not proven they can stand up to the top of the conference, they certainly have stood out vs the middle and bottom. Vanderbilt owns just 3 winning seasons since 1982, and this will be their 4th straight losing season. Vandy is 0-6 in conference games where they have been out-scored 277-121, and allowing 46.2ppg. The Tigers have out-gained their last 4 opponents 2355-1266, and are on a roll. Vanderbilt fits into a 5-31 ATS situation, and several other indicators point to Missouri. My November NCAAFB GAME OF THE MONTH is on Missouri.

I wait for these games to come up every year. The Army recruits heavily in Texas, and currently has 23 rostered players from Texas. Coaches have even said that this is the most competitive practice week of the season. It is because players fight to make the travel team, for a lot of them it is a trip home, one that does not come often. There will be a lot of family and friends at the game. The results speak for themselves as Army is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 trips to Texas. Make the play on Army.

This game fits a situation that is 67-32 ATS and the play is on Miami.

There is a fine line between good, average, and bad in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills may be a vastly over-rated team to this point as they come into play against the hot New Orleans Saints at 5-3, and have the record of a playoff team, but it is an illusion. The Bills don't do anything good or bad, as they are pretty much a slightly below average team from the line of scrimmage. They have been out-gained by each of their last 7 opponents, and in their last 4 wins have had a turnover margin of +12. It is an unsustainable pace to be on average +3 going forward, and I expect this Buffalo team's record to erode going forward, we saw it last week vs the Jets. New orleans appeared to be heading for a bad season starting 0-2, but everything has come together for this team, including their much maligned defense, that has now allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Saints, unlike the Bills, have won their last 3 games by an average of 9ppg, despite a negative turnover margin in all 3. The Saints have also out-gained each of their last 6 opponents. Only way Buffalo has a chance here is if they are +2 or more on turnovers, so I like their chances. Make the play on New Orleans.

Washington needed a miracle last Sunday Night, and got one, beating the Seahawks 17-14 with late heroics from Kirk Cousins. They were out-gained by nearly 200 yards, but somehow managed to win. Washington spent a lot of physical and mental energy in that game, and this team is severely banged up. The Skins have 22 players on he NFL injury report. The offense has become one-dimensional, as they have run for just 269 yards in their last 4, and has gotten worse with a dinged up OL, at just 100 rushing yards total in their last 2. Minnesota is going to make things tough, as the Vikings in their last 5 games has not allowed any QB to pass for more than 161 yards, and none of their last 6 opponents has topped the 17 point mark. Menwhile, Kase Keenum has a passer rating of 88.8, respectably better than what he has done previously in his career, and more importantly has cut his interception rate down to 1.3%. The Vikings have become a player in the NFC, and should come away with the road win here. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Detroit Lions saved their season last week in Green Bay with a 27-17 win on Monday Night. That has gotten Detroit even at 4-4, but they have had red-zone issues all season. Detroit has managed just 45.8% scoring TD's in the red-zone, while Cleveland is at 45%. DeShone Kizer has been in and out as the Cleveland starting QB, and his 52% completion rate, just 3 TD's and 11 INT's are not NFL caliber at this stage of his career. The Browns have gotten to 20 points just one time this season, all the way back to game 3, and have averaged just 14.6ppg with Kizer at QB. The Browns defense is better than it looks, last year they allowed 10 teams to go for 400+ yards, and this year none. Think there is some value on the under here, and a situation here that is 31-69 O/U offers some support. Make the play on the under.

The Green Bay Packers have certainly not fared well when Aaron Rodgers has not been their QB in recent years. QB Brett Hundley has been a disaster so far, but the Packers have had 2 weeks to get him straightened out and to formulate a game plan. Mike McCarthy is a strong offensive mind, and he will have the offense geared for Hundley to have more success, and Aaron Rodgers has worked with him as well. Better news is the banged up Packers have had a chance to heal, and have a lot more defensive starters back, as well as their offensive line back in tact. Aaron Jones has given the Packer's a running game, and should be enough to slow the rush on Hundley. Detroit has even bigger issues, as they have dropped 3 straight allowing 33ppg. The offense was 0-5 in the red-zone last week, and struggling. Packers have some strength as a pass rushing unit, and Detroit has trouble protecting Stafford, and I think the Packers will disrupt some drives in that respect. Lions have never been a strong road team, and worse as a favorite where they are 9-26 ATS as road chalk since 1992, and Lambeau has been a graveyard for this team just 1-25 SU in their last 26 here. Lot of action on Detroit, but the line eroding, a good sign that big money is behind Green Bay. McCarthy is 9-1 ATS after a bye. Lions 0-15 ATS in their last 15 vs an opponent that had less than 26:30 time of possession in their last game, losing all but one of them straight up as well. A team making 5 or more field gaols in their last game is a sure sign of trouble as they are 44-64 ATS the following game. McCarthy is 30-11 ATS in his coaching career vs teams that average 60+ penalty yards a game. Make the play on Green Bay.

The NFL has become a passing league, as more and more we see the ball in the air. A team still has to run the ball to keep opposing defenses from just coming all out every down. Today in the newsletter we will examine the rushing paradox. A gambler is faced with a favorite that has not run the ball well, vs a team that just got crushed on the ground. So the paradox is, will our favorite seize the opportunity vs a team that just git out-gained on the ground by 100+ yards, or will the inept running game of our favorite be a better match for our running scared opponent. Let's take a look and supply some history to our paradox:

1)  Play against team is favored

2)  Play against team has failed to rush for 100+ yards in each of their last 2 games.

3)  Opponent was out-gained on the ground by 100+ yards in their last game.

THE RESULTS:

The favorite is a dreadful:

45-89-9 ATS  at 35.2%!

Seems like we have found our answer, today this plays against the Oakland Raiders, so on the Miami Dolphins.

This game fits a situation that is 41-14 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 113-67 ATS, and the play is on Alabama.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on Oklahoma St.

It would be easy to dismiss this UConn team after Missouri pasted them at home 52-12. The game wasn't even that clsoe, as the Tigers called off the dogs with the bulk of the 3rd quarter still remaining. Dial it back a bit further, and the Huskies dropped a 70-31 debacle vs Memphis as well. They now have to try to stand in against Quinton Flowers and the 7-1 S. Florida Bulls. The perception is, the Bulls are better than both Memphis, and Missouri, so how is UConn going to stay in this game? It is all about perception, and match ups, and this is a more favorable match up for UConn. The Bulls first of all are 7-1, and have beaten teams with a combined record of 13-36 and throw in an FCS win as well. While they tend to score a lot of points, the offense actually grades out negative, generating 5.7 yards per play vs a schedule of opponents that allow 5.9. This team likes to grind it out, and they will put it on the ground 60+ times a game. UConn has faced a similar offense in Tulsa. Tulsa had a trio of RB's that have generated over 2.000 yards and 26 TD's and held them to 194 on 44 carries. S. Florida ill be feeding Tice, Johnson, and QB Flowers on keepers, who have almost combined numbers similar to Tulsa. Beating UConn on the ground is not as easy as through the air, as Tulsa found out. Flowers is not an accurate throwing QB, as he completes just 53%, just like the Tulsa duo, President, and Skipper who complete 55%. S. Florida has beaten an easy schedule of opponents for 3 reasons. They run them into the ground, they win the turnover battle (7 games with a turnover edge, and 1 even), and run a lot more plays. The defense is above average, but their schedule of opponents average a woeful 6.3 yards per attempt in the air. UConn's QB Bryant Shirreffs may not be the best QB in the FBS, but has generated 9.1 yards per attempt, by far the best air attack the Bulls have seen all season. The Bulls have beaten 6 FBS teams, and the 6 teams they have faced have thrown 56 INT's on the season, Shirreffs has thrown 4. While it won't be freezing cold, it will be in the low 50s and drop into the 40s in the 2nd half, and living in Florida this early in the season, that will be the coldest weather this team has experienced since May of this year. Many will expect South Florida to come in loaded for bear off their first loss, but history dictates otherwise. A team that was 5-0 or better and lost their 1st game last time out by 14 or less points, and are now facing a team better than .250 and worse than .667 are 39-82 ATS! Line is way off here, make the play on Uconn.

This game fits a situation that is 177-102 ATS, and the play is on Northwestern.

This game fits a situation that is 101-66 ATS, and the play is on Iowa St.

This game fits a situation that is 88-57 ATS, and the play is on Stanford.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 51-16 ATS, and the play is on Vanderbilt.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

When I look at a game, I like to look for hidden value and there is plenty to work with regarding this game. The Lions don't get to play on Thursday Night, Monday Night, or Sunday Night very much at all. They have made 5 appearances since October of 1999 on Sunday Night and are 0-5. They have made just 4 appearances at home on Monday Night since October of 1998, and have not appeared at home on a Thursday Night since October of 1998. Needless to say, the current roster has very little experience in game preparation for these "special" games. Pittsburgh has been a fixture in these games pretty much on a season to season basis. Pittsburgh is 7-1 since 1989 vs Detroit (best record they have vs an out of conference opponent), winning by 11ppg. Detroit would appear to be the better offense here, but they are far from it, registering -0.5 yards per play from the schedule of opposing defense they have faced, while Pitt is +0.2. Detroit has scored on short fields more than any team in the league, and is averaging 11.1 yards per point, which will not continue. No team has generated more than 313 yards against the Pittsburgh defense this season. Pittsburgh allows -0.7 yards per play vs a schedule of opposing offenses generating 4.7, while the Detroit defense is even. This gives Pittsburgh the advantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and the Detroit injury list is as long as the dead sea scrolls. Pittsburgh comes in very healthy. Stafford has struggled throughout his career vs strong defensive teams, with an 83.6 passer rating against defenses allowing from 13.6 to 19.6ppg, and his Lion's team is averaging 19ppg in those contests. Pittsburgh is allowing 12.6ppg when it does not turn the ball over more than 1 time. The Steelers also fit a statistical match up situation that is 125-80 ATS. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Not too many teams come out of Seattle feeling very well. The Seahawks are 41-6 SU at home since the start of the 2012 season, and teams from the AFC that seldom play here are 0-11 SU over the period. DeShaun Watson has been a force, but most don't realize his last 3 games were all at home, and now he must go to the most difficult place in the league to play, and his inexperience is going to be tested at the top level. Seahawks have allowed 15.4ppg in the 47 games, and many think the defense is down, but 15.8ppg a year ago, and 13.5ppg this year. Make the play on Seattle.

Many were surprised that Lane Kiffin took the Florida Atlantic job. He has the Owls at 4-3, and the offense has been clicking on all cylinders, and produced a season high 69 points in their last game at home vs North Texas. The owls generated over 800 total yards of offense in that win. The problem side of the ball for this team is a defense that has allowed 31ppg on the season vs FCS opponents, and a road record of 1-2 on the season. The Hilltoppers have been given expectations beyond their means after a couple of very strong seasons, but at 5-2, they have shown signs of improvement with each game, and have now won 4 straight, and for the 1st time this season will be in the role of an under dog. Statistically, FAU brings in much better numbers to this game, along with a much tougher schedule. This is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and W. Kentucky is 18-2 SU here in their last 20 games, losing by a single point in both loses. They are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a home dog, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6, winning 5 of those outright. Owls never good in this role, and are 2-7-1 ATS as a road chalk. Hill Toppers apply to a 77-40 ATS situation as well. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

: After completing the past 12 seasons with a .500 record or better, the BYU Cougars are enduring what possibly may turn out as their worst season ever. The Cougars enter play at home with a woeful 1-7 record on the season, and stand at 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They will have their best chance of getting their first win this season against an FBS team against San Jose St. Like the Cougars, the Spartans are winless vs FBS competition this season. Biggest problem for San Jose is turnovers, as the Spartans average 3.5 turnovers a game vs FBS schools. BYU has played a much tougher schedule overall, and when there has been a battle of a pair of 1 win teams from game 8 out, the home team is 37-16 ATS, and I have a subset of that which is 18-2 ATS, make the play on BYU.

The Florida St. Seminoles last had a losing season back in 1976, over 40 years ago. They enter this game against Boston College at 2-4 on the season. this is step up time for the Noles, who have endured a lot of injuries this season, but have a deep talented roster. Are they really a pick-em team against BC, subtracting out 3 for home field advantage? The Noles have by far played the toughest schedule in the country, with no opponent under .500, with the 4 losses coming to teams that are a combined 24-4 on the season. Taking a look at those 4 opponents, the Noles actually were the better team from the line of scrimmage, 6.92 to 6.54. It was a negative turnover margin totaling -7 in the 4 games, and a negative turnover margin in all 4. Don't get me wrong, this BC team is much better than the previous few years, and have played a tough schedule of their own. The difference is, their toughest 4 games vs Clemson, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Notre Dame, show them out-gained 6.84 yards a play to 5.06. Much different than Florida St. The Noles are the better team on both sides of the ball, and in every facet. BC even had a +1 turnover edge in the 4 games mentioned above. This is not close, make the play on Florida St.

Other than a period from the 2006 season through the 2009 season, Toledo has been .500 or better in all but 1 season since 1990. This has been the most stable program in the MAC, and one that has generated 9 wins in 5 of the last 6 seasons, and at 6-1 they sure look like they will add another. The Rockets have blasted conference opponents to the tune of a 47-12 SU record since 2010, covering 60% of the time along the way. The Rockets are 123-92-6 ATS in conference games all-time. (14-5 ATS from -21 to -30). Ball St. has lost 7 of their last 30 games by an average margin of 40ppg, so this team has played some ugly games recently. They have bigger problems in this game with RB James Gilbert, and QB Riley Neal, both out. Reserve QB Jack Milas is also nursing an injured elbow. Milas is probable, but his 4.9 yd. avg. per attempt is way below average, and he has thrown 0 TD`s to 6 INT`s on the season. The Cards are also without a pair of WR`s for this game, and they have generated a grand total of 15 points in their last 3 games. Toledo fits an 84-37 ATS situation for the icing on the cake, Make the play on Toledo.

The San Francisco 49ers have been just bad enough to lose each of their first 6 games in 2017. They have lost the last 5 of them all by 3 points or less. Their first 2 games of the season saw them do nothing offensively, as they generated 12 total points and under 240 yards a game. The offense has been doing much better since, as they have averaged 25.3ppg on 366 yards per game. Last week CJ Bethard in his NFL debut looked like a poised veteran when he came in and threw for 245 yards on 19-36, and nearly rallied the Niners to victory. He will get the start Sunday. The Dallas offense is doing fine, but the defense has allowed 35 or more points in 3 of their last 4, and has been average on the season. San Francisco has been vulnerable in the air, and I would expect Dak Prescott to have a big game. A team that is off a home favorite loss, and playing on the road, in the first half of the season (prior to week 9)are 55.8% to the over. These teams in their last 4 games (8 games total), has seen the average points scored in their game at 55.8ppg. Niners 18-1 to the over as a single digit dog vs a team that forces less than 1.25 turnovers per game, and allows less than 4.95 yds a carry on the season since 2006, going over by over 7ppg. Make the play over the total.

This is based on one of my top systems which is 51-5 ATS, make the play on Indianapolis.

This game is based on one of my top systems which is 42-7 ATS, make the play on Tampa Bay.

This game is based on one of my top totals situations which is 57-17 ATS, make the play on the under.

This game is based on a statistical matchup indicator, one that has a record of 84-48 ATS, make the play on Carolina.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Wyoming.

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Michigan.

The Oklahoma Sooners will take on Kansas St. on the road. The Sooners have the best passing attack in the country, at 12.5 yards per attempt, and while Bill Snyder has worked some magic at home as the coach of Kansas St., those numbers have not held up vs ranked opponents. Kansas St. has a good run defense, but have been marginal vs the pass, and this Sooner aerial attack is by far the best they will have seen this season. Kansas St. has another issues, as QB Jesse Ertz will be out again, and he is the Kansas St. offense. Ertz duel threat ability led to a passing attack that was generating 9.3 yards an attempt, and Ertz is by far the best runner on the team. Alex Delton has completed 38% of his 34 passes at 5.2 yards per attempt. Dalton can run some, but not the same threat as Ertz. Oklahoma big in this one.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1058-897 ATS, and the play is on Illinois.

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 77-51 ATS, and the play is on Indiana.

The Ball St. Cardinals has seen their offense diminish considerably in the absence of starting QB Riley Neal. He has been replaced by 5th year senior Jack Milas. Milas was decent in his freshman year throwing 9 TD's to 5 INT's at 6.2 yards per attempt, but he has since regressed, lost his job, and has been pretty bad since. Milas since the start of his sophomore year has averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, with just 2 TD's and 11 INT's (0 TD's and 6 INT's this year. His last 2 games have seen the Cardinal's offense produce 6 points on 3.77 yards per play. C. Michigan has generated 15ppg in their last 5, playing under the total in all 5 games. This game fits a situation that is 57-124 O/U. I will make the play on the under in this one.