LSU has the best offense in NCAA Football this season by a significant margin. The Tigers are averaging 45.2ppg on the season and should have no trouble reaching or exceeding that number vs a Florida defense that has allowed better than 40ppg in their last 3 contests, and this is the best offense they will see all season. Florida has an above average offense that will put up a lot of points vs an LSU defense that is significantly below average. The LSU schedule shows they have hung up huge numbers to a schedule of teams with above average defenses, so there is no limit on what their offense can do vs Florida. This game also fits a situation that is 136-77 ATS to the over as well. Make the play OVER the total, my NCAAF Total of the year.

Oregon St. has won more than 7 games just 1 time since 2012, and the Beavers are taking on Stanford at home. Oregon St. is 7-2 on the season, and this team ranks right up there with one of their better teams. The Beavers offense has produced 35.2ppg this season. They will be hosting a Stanford team that is allowing over 34ppg and there should be plenty of opportunities to score. Stanford is 2-7 on the season and is coming off a 10-7 win vs Washington St. as a 14 point road dog. A team that wins their last game as a double-digit road dog, and are playing on the road again as a 20 point or more dog have covered just 37.5% of all games. Oregon St. has the offense and defense to turn this into a blowout. Make the play on Oregon St.

Troy has won 10 or more games in 4 of the past 7 seasons, and at 7-2 they are heading in that direction again. This team has lost only to Kansas st., and came withing 2 points of unbeaten James Madison. The defense has been their anchor over the last 5 games where they have won and covered all of them on the strength of a defense that has allowed 6.6ppg in the 5 games. This team has a lot of mojo going right now. LA Monroe has not had a winning season since 2012. The Warhawks have allowed 37ppg in their last 7. Everything lines up for a big blowout win by the Trojans, including a 228-154 ATS situation based on momentum. Make the play on Troy.

Tulane has a few games left, but the 20 wins they have achieved since the start of last season are the most in Tulane football history over a 2 consecutive year period. Last year the Green Wave averaged 36ppg, but the offense is not as good this season, as they average just 28.7ppg. Moreover, the defense is improved from allowing 22.2ppg a year ago to 19.3ppg this season. The Tulsa offense is very bad, and in their 3 games vs the top 3 defenses on their schedule they produced an average of 12.3ppg. I expect they get less than that in this game. Tulane has been 7-1 to the under in its last 8 games and has not exceeded 37 points in any game all season. There is plenty of margin for this game to come up shy of the total, and the play is on the UNDER.

Michigan brings a perfect record into this contest at Penn St., but an imperfect ugly situation that continues to haunt them and Coach Harbough is suspended through the regular season, and won't be on the sidelines for this one. Michigan has faced a rather soft schedule. Penn St.has an average offense, but the defense gives them field position, and they are still averaging 40.2ppg. Michigan has not faced a top 25 team all season, and playing at Happy Valley in front of over 100,000 fans is never easy. Coach Franklin has some stunning numbers as Coach at Penn St. His team off a conference win is 38-13-2 ATS. A home dog from game 10 on that allows fewer than 9 points per game is 15-6 ATS. There are many more situations in the Nitany Lion's camp for this one, and a win would greatly improve their chances of making the 4 team playoff. Make the play on Penn St.

The Akron football program has really struggled, especially over the last 5 years where they are a woeful 7-44 SU. Any chance they had at moving the needle this season ended when QB D.J. Irons went down with an ACL injury.They are left with left with Jeff Undercuffler. This team could run the ball pretty good because of Irons, but now they don't even have a running game, let alone being down to a 2nd string QB. The defense has held its own as the Zips allow just 344 yards per game. Miami, Ohio lost star Jeff Gabbert, and his backup  Aveon Smith has been dreadful. Miami is going to put the ball on the ground, and let their strong defense take the game over. I don't see a lot of points here, and will make the play under the total.

The Cincinnati Bengals have recovered nicely from a 1-3 start. QB Joe Burrow wasn't healthy and the offense struggled. They have won and covered 3 straight games, and come off a huge 31-17 win at San Francisco. Both these teams are coming off their bye week, and that should put a much healthier Josh Allen on the field, and with Buffalo at 4-4 on the season, this is a big game for the Bills. Allen did suffer a shoulder injury and missed practice on Wednesday, but should be a go on Sunday Night. Burrow started 19-19 against San Francisco in his last game and finished 28-32, so the entire country has hopped on the Bengal bandwagon. Not me. Make the play on Buffalo.

I hear a lot of talk about what is wrong with the Eagles? This team has such great expectations, that even a 7-1 record isn't good enough. I think we will see them at their best as they play host to Dallas this week. The Eagles will be at their toughest at home and Jalen Hurts is 18-8 ATS in home games. He is also 10-1 ATS vs. a team allowing 14.1 to 20.1 points per game. The Eagles are also 17-2 SU (12-6 ATS) at home as a favorite. Dak has not been good as a dog of 6.5 or fewer points. His team is 5-8 SU and 4-10 ATS, and he has thrown just 11 TDs and has 17 INTs. Philadelphia is going to put pressure on Dak early, to see if they can force him into bad throws, which he seems to struggle with. I like Dallas in this one.

The New England Patriots started the season looking competitive. They were just 1-2 but both losses were by one possession. Things have gotten dicey since. The Pats are heading for their worst season in a long time at 2-6 and Mack Jones is not living up to what they expected him to be at this point. Jones has thrown 8 INTs to just 9 TDs, and his passer rating is awful. Simply put he is not getting it done. New England has lost 4 of its last 5 games and the losses have come by a combined 87 points or 22ppg. There is a lot to be fixed, and I don't think they will find answers this season. Washington has not lost a game by more than 7 points since September 24th against Buffalo. This team is competitive on a weekly basis, and 2 losses have come at the hands of Philadelphia by a combined 10 points. New England is fading while the Commanders seem to be improving. Make the play on Washington.

The Washington Commanders turned sellers and traded their bookend defensive ends Chase Young, and Montez Sweat. They also lost safety Darrick Forrest in week 5. This defense is already suspect having allowed 33 or more points 5 times this season already. New England scored 52 points over a 5 week period, but has scored 46 in their last 2. I think Washington lost most of their talent on the defensive end, and I can see significant points here. Rivera's teams have played over to a 30-16 ATS mark on turf, and Washington is 46-28 ATS to the over after scoring 30 or more points their last game. Make the play on the OVER.

We usually don't get games of this magnitude in the European time slot, but this should be a good one. There will be speed all over the field. The winner of this game may very well be the team to beat the rest of the way in the AFC. Pat Mahomes is still a dynamic QB but his numbers are down compared to last season across the board. His yards per pass attempt, and QB rating is down, and his interceptions are up. Tua Tagovailoa is having his best season, and 6.6% of his attempts have gone for TDs. He has certainly out-played Mahomes at this point. The Chiefs offense has lacked consistency, and not playing on the same level as the past few seasons. They went the previous 4 years scoring fewer than 20 points just 7 times (1 last year), but have failed to do so in 3 games already this season. Kansas City has turned the ball over 15 times in their last 7 games. The Miami offense looks more like the old Kansas City offense. Both teams have a lot of injured players, and to this point Miami has out-played KC and look more like the Chiefs than the Chiefs. Make the play on Miami.

Rice has coughed up some weird games as they lost to UConn at home. It is the Huskies only win this season. They also lost to South Florida by 13. Then there is the good Rice that lost to Tulane by just 2 points, and beat Houston by 2 points. This looks like such an ugly game after SMU has dominated their last 2 opponents by a combined score of 124-10. Rice has walked this road many times over the years, and they have been one of the best home dogs in the country. Rice is 55-37-2 ATS in their last 94 as a home dog, including 47-22-2 ATS if the line is fewer than 13 points. Rice is a perfect 19-0-1 ATS when they are a conference home dog, after covering their previous game by more than 6 points since 1991! Mke the play on Rice.

Looking at some of the numbers for this game tells a big story. New Mexico has the worst or second worst defense in the FBS. When you place that defense against a UNLV offense that has scored 40 points in the 5 games vs bad defenses, and New Mexico is worse than those teams in terms of defense. I expect New Mexico to move the ball on offense, but without getting stops they can`t keep up here. I`m playing on UNLV.

Hawaii has not been good all season but lately they look like there is a disconnect somewhere. Hawaii has allowed over 40ppg in their last 4 contests, all losses. They haven't covered a game since September 9, and that was vs. FCS Albany. Nevada is no bargain, but this team is showing signs of life and still being connected. Nevada shut-out San Diego on the road as an 11.5 point dog. They followed that up with a big win vs. New Mexico. Nevada is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. It is never easy for Hawaii to come to the mainland. They are 154-106 SU at home and 51-121 SU on the road. Hawaii is a good play against on the road vs. any team as they cover just 44% of the time. Make the play on Nevada.

This may be the last game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. in a long time. Oklahoma suffered a stunning loss at Kansas last week. The Sooners over their past 3 games have combined to out-score them by a total of 1 point. One of the hardest things in college football is being an unbeaten team of 5-0 or better and lose that first game. These teams blindly bet cover 55% of all bets. Statistically, Oklahoma is the better team, but that was the case in Oklahoma's last 3 games, and all 3 went down to the wire. I expect nothing less in this one. Oklahoma St. is 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS as a home dog in their last 8. I like Oklahoma St.

This game looked like it may be bigger that it actually is coming into the season. There is one big reason I like this game. Everyone is basing Clemson as if they are 8-0 right now or 7-1 like they have been for a long time. That isn't Clemson anymore. They are 4-4, and they are good, but only on the defensive side of the ball. They are slightly negative on the season. The Notre Dame offense is as good as the Clemson defense, but the Clemson offense is far worse than the Notre Dame defense. I feel Notre Dame caps out as a favorite here, as reluctant as the books are posting Clemson as a home dog. This isn't the same caliber team's we have seen before, and Notre Dame is. Make the play on Notre Dame.

The Toledo Rockets will determine their own fate as the Rockets are 7-1 on the season, with the only loss coming to Illinois by 2 points on the road. The Rockets have out-gained the last 7 opponents they have faced. They have out-gained their schedule of opponents by well over 100 yards per game. Buffalo has one of the worst offenses in the country, and in addition to that the match ups are all in favor of Toledo. I would not be surprised to see Toledo run for 300+ yards in this oneThink this line is considerably shy of what it should be. Toledo has finished all but 1 of their seasons at ,500 or above since 2010, a traditionally strong MAC team, and cover 55% of their home games. Make the play on Toledo.

Both these teams enter this contest at 4-4, but there are a lot of differences. Central Michigan is awful on offense and averages a woeful 6.4 yards per play while allowing 8.1. These teams are pretty much on par regarding strength of schedule. Northern Illinois and their plus running game should move the ball rather easily, and they out-gain their schedule of opponents by 0.5 yards per play. Northern Illinois has been about as good as it gets on the road where ther are 49-22 ATS since 2012, including 19-8 ats if it is a conference game.

The San Francisco 49ers started the season at 5-0 and looked like they were Super Bowl bound. That has changed with 2 straight losses. They might get Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel back. The Forty Niners are going to be in an ornery mood off 2 straight losses, and they will look like a different team where they are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 regular season home games. They have won the 12 games by an average of 15.7ppg. Joe Burrow has a QB rating in the 70s and has not been totally healthy and has not looked good. His passing yards per attempt have dropped about 30% from 7.3 yards per attempt a year ago to 5.3 this season. Brock Purdy is 10-1 at home and putting up over 33ppg. I like San Francisco.

Last week was a crazy game for the Cleveland Browns. Myles Garrett is a huge disruptor and his fingerprints were all over the 39-38 win by the Cleveland Browns last week. Garrett had 2 sacks, a blocked Field goal, and forced 2 fumbles. It was a highly emotional game that went back and forth all game. I think a different team shows up in Seattle this week, as it is going to be difficult for Cleveland to summon their "A" game after last week. The Browns are with a backup QB, and a bunch of injured RB's so the running game is in trouble. Brown's QB P.J. Walker has averaged just 5.6 yards per pass attempt, and you can't win in this league with those numbers. Add in all the injuries to the Cleveland RB's and this is not setting up to be a big week for Cleveland. Make the play on Seattle.

The Jacksonville Jaguars at 5-2 will head to Pittsburgh to take on the 4-2 Steelers. While both these teams have a combined 9-4 record they are both being out-gained by their opponents on the season. The Steelers have won 4 out of 4 games that finished with a one-possession final score, and have been blown out in their 2 losses by a combined score of 60-13, and Pittsburgh has shown a not very high ceiling, and a low floor. Pittsburgh is 4-2, but has been out-gained by their opponent in all 6 games. They are living off turnovers with opponents having 12 in the 6 games. Their opponents re running an average of 10 more plays a game than they are. Trevor Lawrence is the better QB in this game, and what Pittsburgh is doing is not sustainable. Make the play on Jacksonville.

The Atlanta Falcons spent a lot of money to fill in some holes and after a 7-10 season a year ago, they are looking much better at 4-3. Desmond Ritter has been serviceable, but the wheels have fallen off for Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has a QB rating of 71.9 with just 2 TD passes and 6 INTs on the season. Tennessee has scored an average of 14ppg in their 4 losses. Tennessee owns the biggest weakness in this game as the Titans pass defense has been very poor thus far. They have allowed opposing QB's to generate 7.4 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that generate just 6.1 That is where this game is likely going to be won or lost and I have more faith in a solid Atlanta defense. Make the play on Atlanta.

The LA Rams are 3-4 on the season. The passing offense has moved the ball well, until they see a defense that gets pressure as the LA offensive line has not held up against the good defenses they have played. Dallas leads the league getting pressure on half of their opponents snaps. I think Dallas is going to put the heat on Matthew Stafford, and that has not been a good thing for the Rams, as facing pressure has been the weakness. Dallas is not likely to get over the top against the Rams defense, but Dak Prescott has utilized short passes to sustain drives, and that will be open against the Rams. Since Prescott became a Cowboy in 2016 Dallas is 46-22-2 ATS when facing a team that is .500 or worse. When Dallas is .500 or better in these games, they are 34-14-2 ATS. Make the play on Dallas.

The James Madison Dukes had an extended period in the FCS where they put out a Championship contender just about every year. So far that has translated well to the FBS as the Dukes are 7-0. James Madison is allowing 1.2 yards per carry on the season, and also has an above average pass defense. When it comes to throwing the ball JMU is elite as they average 8.6 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams allowing just 7. A team that is 7-0 and a home favorite of fewer than 37.5 points are 63-43-4 ATS with a subset that is 51-18-1 ATS. Make the play on James Madison.

This will be a good match up as both these teams come into this contest at 5-2. A Bowl invite awaits the winner. Looking at this game Troy has been a significantly better team from the line of scrimmage than Texas St. They are even from the line of scrimmage on offense and slightly negative on defense. Troy caps out as an elite mid-major as they are 1.5 yards better from the line of scrimmage, which sets up a large mismatch. The Troy defense has allowed a combined 10 points in their last 3 games, and should be able to turn back Texas St. Troy has also played a significantly stronger schedule. Make the play on Troy.

East Carolina has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS. The Pirates have averaged just 13ppg vs FBS teams. UTSA has been a solid under team all season, and both teams have combined for a 10-4 mark to the under on the season. That just supports my best total system that generally wins a lot of games. Make the play under the total.

I think Chris Creighton has done a good job at Eastern Michigan. He took over the program that was on the edge of existing with bad season after bad seasons. He has led Eastern Michigan to bowl games, and they are much more competitive. This was not supposed to be a good season, but he has his team 4-4. The issue here is his team has been out-gained in all 8 games despite a very easy schedule. Their not as good as their record. Western Michigan is much better than their 2-6 record. The Bronco's have 6 losses to Syracuse, Iowa, Toledo, Miss St., Miami, O., and Ohio U. They have been on average in those 6 losses a +20 point dog. They were favored by a combined 15.5 points in their 2 wins and won both by 18. I think the records are misleading and this is a good spot for Western Michigan.

SMU is 5-2 on the season, but I think they are better than that. The 2 losses came against Oklahoma, who they out-gained, and TCU who out-gained them by 50 Yards. They are 5-0 vs everyone else and have the defense has been huge. SMU has not allowed any of those 5 opponents to gain 300 yards, and the Mustangs are allowing just 8ppg in the 5 games. Tulsa is off a 32 point home loss to Rice. SMU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of -17 or more points and winning by 35ppg. Make the play on SMU.

The Rams have won 3 of their last 4 games and are coming off their bye. The Rams passing game will get a boost with the return of WR Diontae Johnson. The Steelers have out-played their stats by a significant margin on the season, and that speaks of an over-rated team. Pittsburgh has lost at the line of scrimmage to all 5 opponents they have faced despite being 3-2. Pittsburgh has lost at the line of scrimmage by over 120 yards per game. I think this is as good spot for the Rams as it couuld be. Pittsburgh fits a horrible situation that plays against a team off a home dog win in a division game and is greater than .500 on the season. These teams are 38-80-6 ATS. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Seattle Seahawks rolled with Geno Smith last season and he had a big year for them. He is still about the same in turnovers, so that hasn't been a problem. Where the problem lies is his TD passes have tapered off steeply. Last year mith threw 32 TD passes, and he has just 5 through 5 games this season. I think this is a good matchup for Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs yardage numbers stand out vs a zone defense which Seattle employs on better than 4 of 5 snaps. Seattle finds themselves in a horrible situation that has been 7-42 ATS that has to do with certain favorites coming off an away loss vs an opponent also off an away loss. Make the play on Arizona.

This game fits a long term situation that has resulted in a 217-143-4 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

The Chicago Bears are just 1-5 on the season, and about the only good part of that is if the draft was today they would have the first and second picks in the draft. That won't help their offense today. The Bears lost QB Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent will get the start. Chicago has another problem. They are going to want to run more, but Justin Fields was the reason they ran the ball above average, which won't be the case today. The Vegas offense has struggled along with QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has thrown just 7 TD passes with 8 INT's on the season. Las Vegas has averaged just 16ppg in his 5 starts. The Raiders offense is full of check downs and have trouble getting the ball downfield leaving behind a frustrated Davante Adams. This game is supported by a 79-41 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.

The Indianapolis Colts are 3-3 on the season, but they are a soft 3-3 team. The Colts QB Gardner Minshew is averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt and has just 3 TD passes to 3 INT's. Indianapolis has been out-gained by their opponents on the season. The Browns are 3-2 on the season and none of their opponents has gained as many as 300 total yards in any of the 5 games. Cleveland has an ultra elite defense that is allowing exactly 200 yards a game against them. I don't see the subpar Colts offense doing much in this game. Cleveland fits into a defensive elite situation that is 73-48 ATS and I will make the play on Cleveland.

The Nevada Wolfpack has started the season 0-6. Nevada despite being 0-6 has out-played their stats which adds further value on this game. This is a team with a significantly low offensive efficiency, and has been out-gained on the season by almost 200 yards per game. Nevada now has a 16 game losing streak, and has covered just 5 times in the 16 games. San Diego St. does one thing above average as they can throw the ball some, and against one of the worst pass defenses in the country, they will have success moving the chains, and ripping off big plays. San Diego St. is 70-47 ATS against a losing team over the past 30 years. Make the play on San Diego St.

It looks like there is some line bias in this game. Toledo seems to be good most years, and the Rockets head to Miami, Ohio at 6-1 to take on the upstart Miami, Ohio Red Hawks who is also 6-1. Miami, Ohio should get a boost on offense as their star WR in Gage Larvadain make his return today. Toledo owns 3 wins by 7 or fewer points, and on average they were a -16 point favorite in the 3 games. Toledo is in several bad situations for this game. Since the start of the 2014 season a team posted as a home dog that comes into the game having won 4 or more straight games is 60-34-2 ATS. Make the play on Miami, Ohio.

This is the biggest game of the day as Penn St. heads to Ohio St. with both teams at 6-0 on the season. Both defenses are extremely good, and Penn St. has been brilliant on the defensive side of the ball as the Nittany Lions are allowing just 194 yards per game and just 8ppg. This game looks like a very good match up, but there is a lot in play here for Penn St. from a situational aspect. Penn St. brings the momentum of winning and covering 2 straight games, and after doing so they are 16-0-1 ATS. Games played between a pair of teams that are both 5-0 or better has seen the dog prevail 18-7 SU and 19-5-1 ATS. Penn St. has run an average of 21 more plays a game than their opponent, while Ohio St. is at -2. I like Penn St. in this one.

This game fits one of my 2 best total situations that has been off the charts good. It has been 104-33-12 ATS to the under. I play this one blind when it comes up because it is very strong. Make the play UNDER the total.

Greg Schiano had success at Rutgers his first time around, and he is starting to move the needle in his 2nd stint at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a very good defense that should shut down the Hoosier mediocre offense. Rutgers is allowing jut 16ppg on the season. Indiana has had trouble scoring against the better defenses on its schedule and I don't think that is going to change today.  and could become bowl-eligible with a win. Indiana has only beaten Akron by 2 points this season and were out-gained by over 200 yards. The other win is vs. FCS Indiana St. an easy win. A team that over its last 7 games is +49 or more points better than their opponent and has a winning record vs. a losing team is 79-49 ATS as a road favorite. Make the play on Rutgers.

This is a difficult scheduling period for Jacksonville. They just played 2 games in Europe, and now come home to be away again at New Orleans. Jacksonville will also be on the road next week. Jacksonville certainly has not carried itself well on the road where they are 22-79 SU in their last 101 road games. (15-73 SU as a road dog. They are also 9-18 ATS as a road dog of 4 or fewer points. Trevor Lawrence is a game time decision, but it looks like he will play, but may not be a running threat in this game. New Orleans has covered 5 straight in this series, and I like that to become 6 tonight. Make the play on New Orleans.

The New York Giants had a really good season last year, but everything seemed to work out in their favor. The opposite has been true this season. The Giants enter Sunday Night vs. the Bills with an offense that has scored 16 or fewer points in all 4 losses. The Giants have 18 players on the injury report including QB Daniel Jones who has been ruled out. Jones has been the offense for the Giants scrambling for his life. Tyrod Taylor will get the start for New York. The Buffalo offense is going to have to do all the heavy lifting on the scoreboard, but I doubt the motivation will be there in a lopsided game. The Giants have surrendered 30 sacks already which is the most by any team in the NFL through 5 games ever! This game fits a total situation that is 107-62 ATS, and I agree. Make the play under the total.

The Arizona Cardinals have gotten mixed reviews from QB Josh Dobbs. There has been a home vs road dichotomy that should come into play again. The Cardinals have moved the ball well at home where they are averaging 25.3ppg, but on the road they have truly struggled where the average dips to 16.5ppg. The defense has been bad home or away as Arizona is allowing 27.2ppg. Te Rams are 2-3 to start the season. Matt Stafford has had success downfield, and Arizona has been awful defending big pass plays so there will be many opportunities here for the Rams offense. Stafford has had trouble vs pressure, but Arizona has the 3rd worst pressure rate in the NFL. Dobbs is going to feel the heat vs Aaron Donald and others, and I think it will lead to turnovers and a couple short fields for the Rams defense. This is an important game for the Rams as it makes the difference of being 3-3 or 2-4. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The New England Patriots were embarrassed last week losing 34-0 to New Orleans. The Patriots have now lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 72-3. They have had a 6-0 turnover deficit in the 2 games. I'm not going to go into details of how New England is better than they have been the past 2 weeks, but they are in so many perfect situations it is hard for me not to hold my nose and play on them, as nobody wants them at this point which just fuels the line. A regular season game involving a team that was shutout in their last game covers 58.4% of the time in their next game. (115-82-5 ATS). I have 6 situations that all land on New England and I just have to trust what the information says and make the play on New England.

The Carolina Panthers drafted Bryce Young to be their QB into the future. He has made adjustments as he was hanging onto the ball too long. That has changed over the past 2 games, and he is slowly figuring things out. Carolina still has not put one in the win column as the Panthers head to 4-1 Miami with an 0-5 record on the season. The Panthers pushed their game against New Orleans, but still have not covered a game at 0-4-1 ATS. The Miami offense has been elite as the Dolphins are the only team in the NFL to produce a 500 yard game on offense and the Dolphins have done it 3 times already. The Miami offense took a hit losing Devon Achane. This game however features a situation that is 89-47 ATS in favor of Carolina. It has to do with a horrible team and horrible ATS team facing a good team and good ATS team. Looks like the type of game where Miami is not very motivated. Carolina has a bye mext week that puts them in a situation that is 133-99 ATS as well.  Make the play on Carolina.

The San Francisco 49era are now the 6th NFL team to score 30 or more points in each of their first 5 games. For what it is worth, the previous 5 teams went 1-4 ATS in their next game. The Browns offense has mostly self-destructed as Cleveland has turned the ball over 10 times in 4 games. The Niners are in some historically bad situations. They are off 3 straight home games. A team off 3 straight home games and now playing as a road favorite of more than 3 points, and playing within a specific total range is 6-32 ATS, and 1-9 ATS if favored by more than a TD. Home dogs in the NFL of greater than 7.5 points are on a 17-3 ATS run in the NFL (80-62 ATS longer term). The Browns have allowed 196.5 total yards per game. I like Cleveland in this one.

Most will shy away to making a play on Iowa. It is well known they don't move the ball well, but it seems like that has been a problem most years. The one good thing is Iowa has a rock solid defense as usual. Iowa is down to a backup QB that is worse. The Hawkeyes however have the best special teams in the country, and when you are playing in an anticipated low scoring game, special teams are far more important. Wisconsin is average offensively and slightly better than average defensively. Make the play on Iowa.

Most will shy away to making a play on Iowa. It is well known they don't move the ball well, but it seems like that has been a problem most years. The one good thing is Iowa has a rock solid defense as usual. Iowa is down to a backup QB that is worse. The Hawkeyes however have the best special teams in the country, and when you are playing in an anticipated low scoring game, special teams are far more important. Wisconsin is average offensively and slightly better than average defensively. Make the play on Iowa.

The Ohio, U. Bobcats lost their opener at San Diego St. 20-13. They have since beaten Iowa St. holding them to 7 points, and has not allowed any team to score more than 17 points in any of their last 5. This game is capping significantly under, and there is also bad weather for this game, and heavy winds and rains are going to limit kicking and the passing game. Both teams are good against the run and neither runs the ball that well. Make the play under the total.

The Western Michigan Broncos went to Mississippi St. and came home with a loss, but they did cover the game. The Broncos are 2-4 on the season. Miami, O.is likely getting their best player back from injury in Gage Larvadain. The Red Birds are 5-1 on the season, despite Larvadain missing 3 games. Miami, O. fits a strong 108-53 ATS situation. Make the play on Miami, O.

Kent St. did not bring an offensive player back from last season, and just 4 defenders. This is a brand new team, and the Golden Flashes are still looking for a win vs. an FBS opponent where they are 0-5. They have played a tough schedule. Kent St. in their 5 games vs. FBS opponents was on average a 28 point dog. They now get a game vs Eastern Michigan who has started 3-3, but to a very soft schedule. Eastern Michigan may be 3-3 but they are averaging just over 14ppg in their 5 games vs. FBS opponents. Eastern Michigan is being out-gained by 137 yards per game, and I think the number here is too big. Make the play on Kent St.

The Jacksonville Gamecocks are 5-1 on the season, but have had the magical turnover luck on their side all season. The Gamecocks have had 4 of their games where the opponent turned the ball over 3 or more times, and in their 5 wins they have averaged 3 turnovers, and are +10 on the season through 6 games. They have been out-gained by their opponent in 4 of their 6 games. Liberty is 5-0 and has out-gained their opponents by over 160 yards per game. Liberty has also had a higher strength of opponent average. Liberty is 51-27-2 ATS all-time, and 13-5 ATS when they are unbeaten on the season. Make the play on Liberty.

The Arizona Cardinals shocked the Dallas Cowboys at home last week. When you have a poor team off n upset win as an 11 point dog or more, they are 30-56-3 ATS in their next game, and if they are favored by more than 7.5 points, they are a woeful 0-13 SU and 1-12 ATS, and have failed to cover by more than 7 points. A 3-0 team that is posted as a double-digit favorite are good bets having gone 10-2 ATS since 1997. The route is on, Make the play on San Francisco.

The Denver Broncos could not have had a worse game against the Miami Dolphins which resulted in a 70-20 loss. This might be the first opportunity for Justin Fields to have a good game in the air. Through the first 2 games it was all short passes, but last week he averaged over 15 air yards on his passes, 3 times the amount of the first 2 games. Denver is giving up a lot on longer passes and this should be a good match up for the Bears. Denver is getting little pressure with its defense. The Bears use RBs in the passing game, and Denver ranks last to passing yards allowed to running backs. The Bears are also vulnerable to RBs in the passing game. I think both offenses will find the match ups appealing, and move the ball well in this one. I think the Justin Fields dynamics shine in this match up at home. The Bears fit a 78-41 ATS situation. Make the play on Chicago.

As you can see from my side write up I am high on both offenses match ups in this game as well as a 189-122 ATS total situation. Make the play over the total.

The Miami Dolphins put up 726 yards last week vs. Denver and through 3 games they have gained 1,651 total yards. The one thing about the NFL is things like this change and don't last very long. Bettors are swarming to the Dolphins this week with 70% backing them. How enticing it is to look at the Dolphins as a dog right now, and bettors have taken the bait. The Bills have had the Dolphins number as they have won 9 of the last 10 meetings, including 7 straight at home. Buffalo is going to show up in a big way and they have the defense to slow down the Dolphins and an offense that has put up 75 points in their last 2 games, The Bills have not allowed any of their 3 opponents to gain 300+ yards, and are a much more complete team than Miami. Scoring 60+ points in an NFL game is rare, and the 5 teams that have done so since 1980 are 0-5 ATS in their next game. Make the play on Buffalo. Make the play on Buffalo

The Cleveland Browns lost Nick Chubb likely for the season. The story here however is the Cleveland defense. The Browns new DC Jim Schwartz, has the defense looking /85 Bears-like. Cleveland has allowed 1 TD through 3 games, and lead the NFL in 3 and outs. Baltimore has 20 players on the injury report, and will continue without OBJ, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and
center Tyler Linderbaum. That isn't good news vs a very strong Cleveland defense. The Browns held Tennessee to under 100 total yards last week and when an NFL team has done that in the past they are 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 occurrences, while allowing a stingy 15.7ppg in the 27 games, and have covered 7 of the last 8. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Texas Longhorns have started 4-0 and they have been good on both sides of the ball. The Longhorns however are averaging just 35ppg, and the defense has been top shelf. Texas is allowing 12.5ppg on the season. overall their games have averaged just 47.5 total points per game. Kansas is also off to a 4-0 start. Kansas has been pretty good defensively allowing 24ppg. Kansas will limit the number of Texas possessions as the Jayhawks run a very slow offense that while they have possession yields 2 plays per minute. Kansas has had 3 games vs FBS opponents and the only game where more than 60 points were scored was their last game, but that game had 2 defensive TDs, so it actually would have been the lowest scoring game of the 3, so I think there is a spike in the total that does not belong. This game also fits a total situation that is 99-48 ATS. Make the play UNDER the total.

Ball St. has really struggled trying to move the chains. The Cardinals are averaging just 16ppg. They did have 2 very tough opponents against Kentucky, and Georgia. The problem is in their last game vs. Georgia Southern, they were beaten all around 40-3. W. Michigan had 2 powerhouse games themselves against Iowa and unbeaten Syracuse. I think Ball St. was exposed to being the bad team they are, and Western Michigan should be by better than a FG in this one. I like Western Michigan.

This game fits one of my strongest total situations that is 169-91 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.

This is a big game for both teams. Clemson is 2-2 on the season, and can't take another loss or their season, by their own standards, is over. Syracuse has an opportunity to go 5-0 with a good win under their belt. Clemson has not been the same since their top QB's that won them two Championships. Clemson is grading out average on offense. Clemson is strong defensively, but not the same way this team used to be built. I think Clemson might be a bit over-rated because they earned the right to be, but it doesn't apply here. I like Syracuse.

Minnesota is off to a 2-2 start with an expected loss vs. North Carolina, and a bad loss last week vs. Northwestern. Minnesota has a very good running game and they should be able to have a lot of success on the ground. The passing game has been poor, but LA Lafayette has doesn't defend it well either. LA Lafayette has faced 4 teams that have yet to win a game vs. an FBS school. The offensive numbers they have put up against cupcakes will not translate to this game. The 3-1 record is quite deceptive, and Minnesota fits a situation that is 76-41 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota.

This could be a very sleepy game, without a lot of action at least beyond the goal line. Jacksonville St. is a healthy 3-1 to start the season, but in their 3 games vs FBS opponents they have scored 18ppg. Outside of the best offense they have seen in Coastal Carolina, they have held their other 3 opponents to just 5.7ppg. Those numbers may turn out to go down after this game as Sam Houston St. has scored 10 total points in 3 games. They are averaging 148 yards per game of total offense. Both offenses are significantly below average while both defenses are significantly above average. I don't see a lot of ball movement here. Make the play under the total.

This is strictly a turnover play that works against the Bears. The situation is exclusive to the Bears and is a total situation that is 33-2 ATS. Make the play UNDER the total.

The Sean Payton era is getting off to a slow start in Denver as the Broncos head to Miami at 0-2. The Payton offense that went through Alvin Kamara when he was in New Orleans now goes through RB Samaje Perine. His receiving success is #1 for all backs so far this season, and with Miami playing soft underneath vs. running backs I can see Denver having success moving the chains. Overall, the Dolphins have been awful against the run and I'm sure they will face a heavy dose of it Sunday. The Miami passing game has been elite throwing downfield, but this week they will be without Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle who suffered a concussion last week. DB Pat Surtain is a tougher matchup than what Tyreek Hill has seen this year, and without Waddle there should be help as well. This game also favors Denver with a 23-4 ATS situation that plays in part on game 3 teams off 2 straight spead losses to start the season. Make the play on Denver.

The Minnesota Vikings had everything go right for them last year. They won 13 games despite being out-gained and out-scored by their opponents. They won 11 games by a single possession, and the regression is underway this season. The Vikings passed on Dalvin Cook and are paying the price as they have rushed for fewer than 70 total yards through 2 games, the worst mark in the league. The Vikings have taken the opposite course as they are 0-2 with 2 one-possession losses. The Chargers may be the best of the 0-2 teams. The Vikings have turned the ball over 7 times in 2 games. Justin Herbert is 9-4 ATS in his career as a road dog with 30 TDs and just 8 INTs. The Chargers fit a very strong 103-47 ATS situation. Vikings are in an 82-128 ATS situation. I like the LA Chargers in this one.

The Detroit Lions opened last season 1-6 and it looked like the same old Lions. Things began to click, and confidence grew as the Lions did a quick turnaround and finished the season 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are now dealing with a rash of injuries as they have 17 players listed on the injury report. That includes some key players, as they take on a relatively healthy Atlanta team. Detroit is facing a lot of downgrades on the field, while Atlanta already 2-0 has some significant upgrades. This game including home field advantage for the Lions grades out to a pick 'em game, so there is line value on the Falcons. NFL teams off a home favorite loss prior to game 5 and not a favorite of 4 or more points are 81-143-10 ATS. NFL week 3 home favorites of 3 or fewer points and coming off a loss are a woeful 12-38-5 ATS. Make the play on Atlanta.

Jordan Love has had mixed reviews in his first 2 starts to begin the post Aaron Rodgers era. The good news is Love has thrown 6 TDs and 0 INT's. The bad news is the Packers offense has gained just 583 total yards in 2 games. The 31ppg is not sustainable with those numbers, and I think there will be regression for Love as the season moves forward, especially against the best defense he will have seen in the New Orleans Saints. The Packers are also playing into a situation that is 2-21-1 ATS. Make the play on New Orleans.

Louisiana is going to be significantly under-valued in this game, because they have lost starting QB Ben Woolridge to a foot injury. That may not turn out as most think. Backup QB Zeon Chriss is more than capable. Chris has thrown just 20 passes on the season but completed 14 of them at 8.7 yards per attempt, which in a small sample size is hard to measure. Chriss is also a very good runner as he has 7 carries for 116 yards, so the running game will be upgraded substantially with him calling signals. Buffalo is 0-3 on the season, with a loss to Wisconsin as expected, but also a loss to Fordham. The Bulls allow over 44ppg. while their offense is also significantly below average. Louisiana is averaging almost 37ppg and may be a better offense with the backup. I like Louisiana.

The Texas St. Bobcats have not won more than 4 games in any of their last 8 seasons.They took a chance on bringing in head coach G.J. Kinne and his OC Mack Leftwich from Incarnate Word. Incarnate Word finished 12-2 and averaged 51ppg. Those numbers have translated even better at the FBS level. The Bobcats have the biggest upset of the season so far as they trounced Baylor as a 26.5 point dog. They put up 42 on Baylor. Going back to week 9 of 2018 this Baylor team had allowed an opponent to score 40 or more points just 2 other times. Texas St. is averaging 44ppg, and will host a Nevada team that I have ranked in the bottom 5 of all FBS teams. This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, and fits a momentum situation for the Bobcats that is 77-34 ATS. Make the play on Texas St.

This line has been growing in favor of LSU, and I think the influence of Arkansas' loss to BYU 38-31 has many down on this Arkansas team. That loss wasn't as bad as it looked. The Razorbacks out-gained the Cougars 414-281. They had 2 costly turnovers, so they controlled the line of scrimmage, and lost a game they should have won. LSU is also in a look ahead spot with a big game coming up next week at Ole Miss. Most of the game will be decided by the LSU offense vs. the Arkansas defense. LSU has moved the ball well on everyone, but was slowed down by Florida St. Arkansas has stopped everyone and out-gained all 3 opponents, but this will be the toughest offense they have faced all season. These teams have scored a combined 52 points the last 2 years, and Arkansas has been good in Baton Rouge where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 trips here. Since Sam Pittman took over at Arkansas his team is 23-15-1 ATS and always seem to be under-valued. (15-10-1 ATS in conference games. His teams is also 12-7 ATS as a dog. I think this is closer than it looks, and LSU is always considered to be an impossible place to win, so the lines tend to be skewed as they are 76-98-4 ATS at home. Make the play on Arkansas.

This will be a tough game for South Florida as the Bulls played Alabama to a 17-3 game, and held the failing Tide offense to 17 points. I can't see this team coming off that game with a lot of energy and Rice is in one of the biggest spots I have in situational handicapping which is 87-32 ATS. Make the play on Rice.

Colorado and coach Prime have become quite the story this season. Colorado won just one game a year ago but coach Prime is off to a 3-0 start after surviving last week vs Colorado St. That win came with a price as Colorado lost their most valuable player in Travis Hunter. Hunter is their best DB and best WR. Sanders at QB has exceeded expectations, especially since he has faced more pressure than any other QB in the FBS this season. I think that goes up in this game and being short his best receiver will make it tougher as they can't run the ball at all.  Games like this are won in the trenches and that is where Colorado is lacking depth and talent, and they will be exposed big here. Make the play on Oregon.

Since the start of the 2008 season under Nick Saban the Tide has lost 5 home games, and never 2 in the same season. Here we are in game 4 and Alabama is certainly in danger of losing for a 2nd time already this season. Jalen Milroe should be starting and is. He made some costly mistakes vs Texas, and Saban wanted to see what his other 2 QBs could do, and it wasn't much. So after Saban had seen that Milroe may not be ready for the big moment, he yanked him, and is now going back because he has no one else. Ole Miss through 3 games has been better than Alabama, and Alabama has other issues, the defense is good, but not as good as it has been or needs to be. Texas scored 34 points on 460 yards at Alabama and the Ole Miss offense has been better than Texas so far. The Ole Miss defense has been a yard better than their opponent, so they will not make it easy on Alabama. I think Ole Miss could win this one outright. I like Ole Miss. (I am putting a half unit on the money line with Ole Miss as well, but I am not making it an official pick.) Take Ole Miss plus the points.

The Cincinnati defense has a reputation and while they are allowing fewer than 22ppg, the number show a different story. The defense allows more yards per ply that the average of their schedule of opponents so far. Oklahoma once again has a huge offense that is averaging nearly 56ppg, and they will move the ball effectively against Cincinnati. The offense is above average and they will move the ball vs. Oklahoma as well. This total has dropped 3/3.5 points from the opener and I think the value is building with the mover for a higher scoring games. This game also fits a total situation that is 138-87 ATS. Make the play over the total.

Coastal Carolina never won more than 5 games before Grayson McCall arrived to play QB. He has better numbers over the 3 years than almost every QB. He has thrown 81 TD passes with just 10 INTs in his career. I think the concerns about him playing in a new system isn't real. He has played just 3 games and 1 was vs. UCLA. Take those numbers out and it looks more like the last 3 years. Georgia St. is 3-0 but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country. That being said they have been a below average team defending these bad teams. Things are going to change dramatically tonight. The Chanicleers have had a good enough defense to allow their offense to keep a distance from their opponents. I like Coastal Carolina in this one.

The Dallas Cowboy's looked like the most dominant team in week 1 of the NFL. They bullied the Giants 40-0. One would think this game would be an easy letdown, but if any team let's down it will be the Jets. They watched their Super Bowl hopes really get dashed when Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achillies on his 4th snap of the game. The Jets took advantage by sloppy play by the Bills who had 4 turnovers. A team off a shutout win, are 57-35-5 ATS in their next game. Make the play on Dallas.

This game fits a situation that is 41-100 ATS but there are double posting in some stances. Overall when a home team is in this situation the total has gone 25-55-5 O/U. Make the play on the under.

The Chicago Bears spent a lot of money in the off-season looking to get things turned around quickly. The Packers Made quick service of the Bears in an easy 38-20 win. Tampa Bay unveiled what they hope is a new version of Baker Mayfield. He played well and mistake free in a close win over the Vikings to start the season 1-0. This is a bad news Bear's type of pick as one of my favorite and reliable situations has this 2-33 ATS nightmare playing against the Bears. They are also on the losing side of a 45-94 ATS situation. Make the play on Tampa Bay. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The Detroit Lions made the playoffs last season in a surprise. They are now the darlings of Prime Time as they will play 5 National TV Prime Time games. Things like this have a rather long history of not going as it would seem. I think the Lions may be ft cats after their 1 point win vs Kansas City. The Chiefs were missing a lot of star players. Seattle got crushed by the Rams 30-12 at home, so both these teams need a win. Seattle also fits in a 21-0 ATS situation that is on them in week 2. Make the play on Seattle.

This game fits a situation that is 41-100 ATS but there are double posting in some stances. Overall when a home team is in this situation the total has gone 25-55-5 O/U. Make the play on the under.

In addition to a 5.2 difference I get on this total for line value, this game also fits a total situation which is 109-68 ATS. Make the play under the total.

I think this is a great spot for Ohio St. The QB controversy has ended. Kyle McCord was named the QB for the rest of the season, and the numbers dictate why. McCord averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt in 2 games this season and Devin Brown just a mediocre 5.1. This should really help the Ohio St. offense get on track, and they have the perfect team to do it against in Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have an awful defense that allows over 460 yards per game against 2 horrible offenses. I don't expect the Western Kentucky offense to move the ball at all here as Ohio St. has a strong defense. Look for Ohio St. to win this one by a huge margin.

Oregon St. has opened the season at 2-0 with the scoring margin in the 2 games at 73. This gives bettors a false impression of their level of play as they played a pair of horrible teams. I think there will be a big difference against San Diego St. The Aztecs since the start of the 2015 season has allowed fewer than 20 points per game. That cover 105 games. I don't think we will see big numbers from Oregon St. here. San Diego QB Jalen Mayden has not been the same this season. He is working in a new offense, and his numbers are much worse than a year ago. I think there is a good chance the San Diego St. defense holds down the Beavers as they continue to struggle to score themselves. Make the play under the total.

The North Carolina is led by Drake May and he has completed over 73% of his passes on the season. That has been complimented with a running game generating 6.5 yards a carry. North Carolina has a strong pass defense as does Minnesota, but North Carolina has played a much tougher schedule to this point. This will be the first offense this Minnesota has seen this year that is balanced and has speed. Minnesota has not run well yet, and Carolina has defended the air. Too many advantages here to let go. Make the play on North Carolina.

Missouri Coach Eliah Drinkwitz is running out of time in Missouri. He has yet to post a winning record in his 4 years. The good news is his Missouri team is off to a 2-0 start to the season. They may have a chip on their shoulder as they lost at Kansas St. 40-12 last year. Kansas St. is a top 20 team on offense and defense and has started 2-0. When you have a game between a pair of 2-0 teams and there is a home dog involved, that home dog is 15-16 SU and 19-12 ATS as long as they are a dog of fewer than 6 points. Home dogs from 3.5 to 10 in a game where both teams have outrushed their opponents by 50 or more yards a game on average, are 31-8 ATS. Make the play on Missouri.

This game fits a situation that has gone over the total to a record of 126-85 ATS and the play is on the OVER.

The Falcons offense was borderline bottom 10 last season. They have opted to go with Ridder and see what he can do. His performance last season was below Marcus Mariota, so there is a decent chance they are worse this year. The Panthers should be much better this season as they have brought over DC Ejiro Evero. He was the highest ranking DC ply caller in the NFL, and I think he has better personnel to work with in Carolina. Atlanta is off of 5 straight losing seasons, and will be challenged not to make this year the 6th. Scouts are high on rookie Carolina QB Bryce Young. They have said he is as close to Aaron Rodgers of anyone they have seen in the league in terms of accuracy. Think there is a lot more upside here on the visiting dog. Make the play on Carolina.

The Arizona Cardinals have voided their roster of talent. Any way you look at this team there is a hole to fill. They are going to go with Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune. Not sure if there is a winner in that pair. Washington has really built up their defensive line using the draft and the rewards will start to occur this season. Washington brought in
Eric Bieniemy from the Chiefs as their new offensive coordinator. There should be some upside from that move. This game fits a 127-78 ATS situation, with line value. Make the play on Washington.

This game total fits a situation that has gone 74-41 ATS and the play is on the OVER.

The Vikings have made some additions to their receiving core, and it should help Kirk Cousins have a lot more choices to throw the ball. They are building a much stronger offensive line through the draft, and it looks like the Vikings offense could be significantly better this season. Brady was somewhat better than average in Tampa Bay last year, but with Baker Mayfield at QB. they have been downgraded significantly. The Bucs have a very young, but very talented secondary, so they possess the type of defense that could give Minnesota trouble. Minnesota was out-gained last season by 31 yards a game despite winning 13 games. The Vikings won 9 games by a single score last season, and this line is too high. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The California Bears under Justin Wilcox have always been starved for offense. They have not averaged as many as 24ppg in any of the last 5 seasons. They have had to rely on good defenses to stay in games. Their fans have to be excited by what they saw vs North Texas. The Bears threw for 312 yards, mostly by a backup QB. They also ran for 357 yards giving them a total of 669 total yards. Auburn has not been able to defend the run and Cal has one of the best backs in the country in Jadyn Ott. He picked up close to 200 yards in game 1. It was shocking that one of the worst teams in the country, UMass, ran for 7.2 yards per carry last week. Then there is Coach Wilcox who has been lethal at Cal as an underdog. He will be in the best part of that this week vs Auburn. Wilcox has led his team to a 16-3 ATS mark when posted as a dog from 5 to 15. Make the play on Cal.

Washington was in need of a QB, and went out and got Cameron Ward.Many questioned the choice, as Ward played football at Incarnate Word. Would he be up for the challenge? Ward was succeeding all over the field, and went 37-49 and over 450 yards. They beat Colorado St. 50-24. QB Tanner Mordecai was awful last week for Wisconsin. The Wisconsin defense looked vulnerable as well. I think these teams are within a FG of each other, and the Cougars are also at home. Make the play on Washington St.

It is hard to understand just how good Chris Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan. This team had not been to a Bowl Game since 1987, and did not have winning record since 1995.His team is always prepared and that has left him a 33-12-3 ATS record as a dog of under 38. His team as a road dog of fewer than 24 points his team is a sizzling 23-4-1 ATS.Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

This is mostly predicated on my 2nd strongest totals situation for college football. It is 46-8 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

This is mostly predicated on my 2nd strongest totals situation for college football. It is 46-8 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

Northwestern had a very difficult summer. The program was riddled with scandals, and almost everything you read about them is negative. What they do have is a solid defense, and a lot of public against them with all the negative news. I think there will be line value on Northwestern early in the season at least, despite last week vs, Rutgers. UTEP is not exactly a thriving program. This team is 18-53 since the start of the 2017 season. Since the start of the 2017 season they have played 6 schools from the P5 and are 0-6. They have faced a team from the P5 41 times and are 0-41 SU! I like Northwestern in this one.

The Georgia Bull Dogs are 33-1 SU in their last 34 games. That streak won`t end on Saturday, but this is a big number. Ball St. certainly isn`t near Georgia`s level. The offense behind a new QB was only up 17-0 at the half. They picked it up some in the 2nd half but it looks like this is not a team that has become cohesive yet. Ball St. has enough to not be totally embarrassed. This has never been a good spot to back Kirby Smart teams as huge chalk. He seldom runs up the score for the monster sized wins. His team`s at Georgia since he arrived are 0-9 ATS when laying 38 or more points. Make the play on Ball St.

Dabo Swinney took over the program at Clemson in 2008. Once he had his recruited players in 2011 the Tigers have won 10 or more games every season since. His team was at the pinnacle of success from 2015-2020 where they went 79-7. While this program is still strong, since the start of the 2021 season, they have lost almost as many games (6), as their golden period. I think this is a good team, but the elite status is not present as it was. They have lost 3 games in each of the past 2 seasons for the first time since 2011. They have suffered 3 double-digit losses the last 2 years, and have had 8 wins of 6 or fewer points, and 8 single possession wins the past 2 years. (10 wins by 13 or fewer points, while they had just 7 such wins in the previous 4 years. their scoring margin has dipped significantly over the past 2 seasons. Duke is not a big-time football program, but they are off a 9-4 season with the 4 losses coming by 8,3,2,3 points. Cade Klubnik has yet to prove himself at QB. Overall, this is still a good team, but this is a reputation line, and the value is on Duke. Duke brought in 3 experienced defensive backs through the portal, and with 8 returning starters the defense should be better. Duke had an above average offense a year ago and QB Riley Leonard has all his backs and receivers returning. Duke was 5-1 ATS last season as a dog, with the only loss by 1/2 a point, and 3 of those were outright wins. Make the play on Duke.

Texas Tech was better than their record a year ago, and the offense could be ready to explode this season. The Red Raiders caught a bad break a year ago when starting QB Tyler Shough was injured in the very first game of the season. He came back to play well in the last 5 games. This season he is healthy and Texas Tech has 10 returning starters on offense, I look for a huge upgrade in the Tech offense this season. The Tech defense is expected to be similar to last year which was slightly better than average. Wyoming had a bad offense last season and will start this year without Dawaiian McNeeley out for the season with a torn ACL, and backup running back Harrison Waylee will miss the first few games. The Cowboy passing attack was brutal last season, and shouldn`t be much better this season. A road favorite of -14 to -21 points in a season opener covers about 60% of the time. I like Texas Tech.

G.J. Kinne will take over the program at Texas St. this season. He favors an uptempo offense but does he have the tools to run it? Transfer quarterbacks Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and TJ Finley (Auburn), are going to both probably get some time, but neither has a track record of success when they have been on the field, and I don`t see this offense clicking, at least early. Baylor doesn`t have more than an average offense. Baylor has a better running game than a passing attack and I think they put the ball on the ground a lot here, but it will be challenging early with an offensive line that has little experience. I don`t see a lot of explosiveness on either side, and the defenses will both be better than the offenses they are facing. When that is the case and the total is on the high side in a season opener a lower-scoring game is probable. Make the play under the total.

G.J. Kinne will take over the program at Texas St. this season. He favors an uptempo offense but does he have the tools to run it? Transfer quarterbacks Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and TJ Finley (Auburn), are going to both probably get some time, but neither has a track record of success when they have been on the field, and I don`t see this offense clicking, at least early. Baylor doesn`t have more than an average offense. Baylor has a better running game than a passing attack and I think they put the ball on the ground a lot here, but it will be challenging early with an offensive line that has little experience. I don`t see a lot of explosiveness on either side, and the defenses will both be better than the offenses they are facing. When that is the case and the total is on the high side in a season opener a lower-scoring game is probable. Make the play under the total.