Scott Satterfield may be a name not readily recognized by most. he took over the Appalachian St. program the year before they joined the FBS and has quickly gotten traction having gone 34-10 in the last 3+ years. The Mountaineers are an elite team on any level, and their 4-1 record includes their opening game overtime loss at Penn St. Since that game they are 4-0 having out-scored those 4 opponents by 33ppg. A backdoor cover is not likely here as this is the 7th rated defense in the country, and they have not been scored upon in the 2nd half in those 4 wins. Offensively, this team is completely balanced and have the 11th ranked offense in the FBS. Lafayette has a good offense but against top defenses, they have really struggled. Last year the Mountaineers won 63-14. Special teams provide for another huge edge for App. St. as they have a kick return for a TD and a pair of punt returns for 62 and 59 yards, while they average 43.7 yards per punt. Mountaineers run out of the triple option at 6.49 yards per carry and have allowed just 6 sacks. UL Lafayette has a very poor defense and App St. should put up over 50 ere, and their defense allows just 288 yards a contest and 30.9% on 3rd down. They will have the advantage on every play on the field on both sides of the ball as well as special teams and their depth running the ball will keep points coming in the 4th quarter. A big number to take down for sure, but they are capable of easily beating it. Lafayette has averaged just 9.2ppg in the 4 meetings. Make the play on Appalachian St. 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and the Arkansas Razorbacks both enter this contest with just a single win. There are not many areas that either team shines in but what edges there is belong to Arkansas. Tulsa has been very strong against the pass and is very long and experienced. They have 5 DB's that average 6'2". Tulsa plays out of a 3-3-5 defense and that has made them vulnerable to the running game. Arkansas is very good at running the ball, and they will have success here. Arkansas does not pass well so the Tulsa strength is not as much of a factor here. Offensively, Tulsa is a running team and passes poorly. Seth Boomer completes an ugly 36.5% of his passes, and the weak part of the Arkansas defense is against the pass, and the Tulsa passing attack is just not strong enough to exploit it. Tulsa has run 310 times and attempted just 170 passes so there is little doubt what they will try to do here. Arkansas is above average vs the run so the Hogs have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Arkansas Coach Chad Morris made his entry in the FBS as OC of Tulsa so you know he wants this one badly. Arkansas is 35-0 SU at home in out-of-conference games vs a team that is not unbeaten and is 15-0 SU here since 1980 vs Tulsa. Both are coming off games where they blew 4th quarter leads, and Tulsa lost at home to S. Florida by a single point with a FG with; 22 seconds remaining. A team that is off a 1 point home dog loss and is now a road dog of more than 3.5 points, has a winning percentage of less than.333 and not facing a team greater than.750 is 3-28 ATS. Make the play on Arkansas.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had to go to Kansas City last week and face the red-hot Patrick Mahomes. The Jags went for over 500 yards, but still lost by 18 points, allowing a season's high 30. The issue was 5 turnovers, following a game they won the prior week vs the Jets despite 3 turnovers. They have to get that cleaned up, but the good news is a team that has committed 8 turnovers in their last 2 games are 24-14-1 ATS in their next game. The Dallas offense is averaging 16.6ppg, and Dak Prescott is struggling owning an 81.4 passer rating on the season. Jags have lost 2 in a row just 1 time since the start of last season, and have come back big after a loss out-scoring their opponent by 26-8. Make the play on Jacksonville.

The LA Chargers are 3-2,but their 2 losses have come against the only 2 unbeaten teams in the league, Kansas City and the LA Rams. The Chargers offense led by Phil Rivers has scored at least 23 points in all 5 games. The Browns come in at 2-2-1 on the season with all 5 games being played to within 4 points either way. One concern here is they have turned their opponent over 15 times 5 games, yet they are still only 2-2-1, which shows them as an over-rated team, as the turnover rate is not sustainable. Baker Mayfield is getting more credit than he deserves with just an 81.4 passer rating. Meanwhile Phil Rivers has a passer rating of 116.1 has 13 TDs to just 2 INT's. This game also fits a situation that is 77-32 ATS, and the play is on San Diego.

One of the most improved teams this year in the NFL has been the 3-1 Chicago Bears. The Bears biggest splash came from the signing of Khalil Mack. Mack was a holdout traded to the bears and it is no coincidence that as his snap count goes up the bears points allowed goes down. The Beats have decreased their points allowed every week. Mack is a game changer that has 5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, a recovery and an interception for a TD. The other difference is the maturation of Mitchell Trubitsky. Trubitsky had a 77.5 passer rating last year, with 7 TDs and 7 INT's, and 101.6 this year, with 8 TDs and 3 INTs. The Bears offense has gone from 16.9ppg to 27.8ppg, and without the collapse in week 1 vs Green Bay would be 4-0. Miami started 3-0 but has lost 3 straight, and after taking a 17-0 lead last week vs the Bengals they gave up 27 unanswered points for their 2nd straight loss. The last 24 teams to blow a 17 point or more lead and lose by 7 or more are 6-18 ATS. Ryan Tannehill has a 3.9% INT rate and has thrown 5 already, and Mack is going to be in his head. The Bears fit a situation involving certain teams off a bye, as road favorites, which is 44-12 ATS. Make the play on Chicago.

The W. Virginia Mountaineers come rolling into Iowa St. unblemished at 5-0, and a #6 ranking. They have yet to be tested, but do have a gauntlet of games ahead. Remaining are games at Texas and Oklahoma St., as well as home dates with TCU and Oklahoma. All in consecutive weeks. This one may look like a tune-up, but Iowa St. is a lot better than their 2-3 record which includes losses to Iowa, Oklahoma, and TCU, and a big road win at Oklahoma St. Matt Campbell came over from Toledo where he was 35-15, and has built the Iowa St. program quickly. The Cyclones won 8 games a year ago for the first time since 2000, and beat Oklahoma on the road, TCU at home, and Memphis on their Bowl game. The Cyclones are 2-3 but have played a schedule that includes Iowa, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. They beat Oklahoma Sy. on the road. Iows St. has not lost to anyone the last 2 years by more than 10 points. They beat Oklahoma a year ago on the road, and TCU at home, a very dangerous and under the radar team. While the schedule thus far has been against very tough opponents, the Cyclones have held 3 opponents to season low yards, and the other 2 to season 2nd lowest yards. Last week, due to injuries freshman QB Brock Purdy was electric. He went 18-23 good for 4 TD's and 318 yards at an amazing 13.8 yards an attempt. he also ran 19 times for 84 yards, on 19 carries and a TD. W. Virginia QB Will Grier is special, and will likely be playing on Sunday next year. W. Virginia however remains unchallenged, as they have played a much below average schedule. Iowa St. may be 2-3, but they are much better than the record, and with Purdy being named QB, the offense has been upgraded significantly. Make the play on Iowa St.

Las Cruces, N.Mexico was a happy place last season, as N. Mexico St. ended a Bowl drought that began back in 1960. Lots of optimism for this season went south quickly when the Aggies opened the season at 0-4. Coach Doug Martin returned 9 offensive players, but needed a QB and went with junior Matt Romero. Romero was pretty awful completing just 55% at 4.6 yards per attempt. He had 3 TD`s and 6 INT`s. Martin decided it was time for a change, and inserted freshman Josh Adkins, and the offense has exploded. Adkins is completing 61.3% at 7.9 yards an attempt, with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. He is not a great runner, but netter than Romero who could not run at all. It has brought life back to the running game as well as Christian Gibson after gaining 67 yards in 3 games with Romero at QB, has gained 230 yards on 23 carries since Adkins took over, 10ypc. The Aggie offense has gone from 10ppg to 38ppg in their last 2. It also helps a rather poor defense to get some rest and not on the field most of the game. Lots of hidden value here. Lafayette is a horrible defensive team, and the Aggies now have something to exploit that with. Aggies should be in this one off two inspiring wins all the way, and could surprise. Make the play on N. Mexico St.

The Chris Ash watch is on at Rutgers. He opened his weekly press conference defending his team, and spoke of a bright future...ut oh. His Rutgers team is brutally bad, especially on the road, where they have lost their last 5 games by a combined score of 218-37, and he is 1-11 SU on the road, out-scored by 4 TD's a contest. Maryland will do what they do best, pound the rock with Anthony McFarland (36-325 9.0), Ty Johnson (45-303  6.7), and Tayon Fleet Davis (41-211 5.1). Maryland's last opponent with a horrific run defense, Nowling Green, led to 444 rushing yards, and Rutgers has allowed 200+ on the ground in every game. The Scarlet Knights QB's have thrown 3 TD passes to 12 INT's, and complete just over 50%, and they don't run the ball well at all. They have averaged 12.8ppg in their 5 contests vs P5 teams, and they are on their 9th offensive coordinator in 9 years. Maryland averages 5.8 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.4, so expect big rushing yards here. Maryland has out-scored teams 66-22 in the 4th quarter, because they can continue to run and score, while Rutgers has been out-scored in the 4th by more than double, so a back door cover is not likely here. Maryland has produced 13 double-digit scoring quarters in their 5 games, Rutgers just 1. (10 points, barely got there). I expect a colossal blowout here, make the play on Maryland.

There is an old saying,"Hunted is he who wears the crown." It certainly applies to the reigning Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. the hunting grounds however are a lot more fertile on the road, than they are in Philly. The Eagles have been on a roll at home, where their defense is far and away the best in the NFL. They have seen a pair of high caliber QB's in their first 2 home games on the season in Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck, and limited them to 366 passing yards combined on 84 attempts at a woeful 4.36 yards per attempt. That rings ominous for a Minnesota team that has been completely one-dimensional this season. The Vikings are throwing the ball nearly 80% of the time in their last 3 games, and have had no success on the ground. Philly has dominated defensively at home where they are 11-1 SU in their last 12, allowing a stingy 12.7ppg. The numbers are even scarier in their last 7 here, limiting opponents to 9.1ppg. Carson Wentz is 11-4 ATS at home putting up 28.3ppg. Minnesota defense is not even close to where it was a year ago, and Philly off a loss at home, will be lethal. Make the play on Philadelphia. 

The Cleveland Browns are certainly a much better team than they have been in several years. They are very young, and are having a lot of difficulty closing out games, despite winning heavily in the turnover battle. The Browns have forced 13 opponent turnovers in 4 games, but despite getting 3.25 turnovers a contest the Browns are 1-2-1 on the season. Only 1 time in the last 30 years of NFL action has a team forced 12 or more turnovers in their first 4 games, and come away with just 1 win. That was all the way back to 1990. Baker Mayfield has proven to be forced into youthful mistakes, and the Baltimore pass defense is elite allowing 5 yards per attempt to teams that average 6.5. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco after a few bad seasons appears to have regained his confidence and is playing very well, 8 TD's just 2 INT's. Baltimore defense allowing just 16ppg, and the offense has gone for 3+ in all 4 games. Cleveland to young for this defense, and I think the turnovers work against them here. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Buffalo Bills at 1-3 know a loss here pretty much ends their season. Last week they were a complete no-show in Green Bay losing a 22-0 shutout. It was generally expected the Bills would falter after a hard to believe thumping they put on Minnesota, on the road 27-6. This will be Buffalo's only home game in a stretch from September 16th through October 29th, so there will be a charged up atmosphere here. Tennessee has been good enough, and lucky enough to win 3 straight games by 3 points as am underdog in all of them. They came out 3-1, but so easily could be 0-4 right now. They became the 4th team in the last 30 years to win 3 straight by exactly 3 points, for the record the other 3 all lost SU/ATS. Moreover the last 6 teams to win 3 straight by 3 or less, are 0-6 SU/ATS. It is simply tough to maintain that level of intensity in this league. Last week they beat the reigning Super Bowl Champion and a team doing so since 1992 has gone 13-41 SU and 16-38 ATS if on the road next game. The last 18 teams to get shutout have gone 14-3-1 ATS in their next game, and on average they were a +3.5 point dog (5-0-1 ATS as a home dog). make the play on Buffalo.

The Kentucky Wildcats are off to their best start in years at 5-0, and another win will give them their best start since 1950. The Cats have been big on both sides of the ball. Texas AM is not an easy place to play, and the Aggies may be 3-2, but the 2 losses were vs Clemson and Alabama. Those two games may offer a hint of what to expect here. AM lost to Clemson by just 2 points and gashed a powerhouse defense for over 500 yards. It was just the 6th time in regular season games that Clemson gave up 500 yards since the start of the 2012 season. The Aggies also hung up just shy of 400 yards at Alabama, and scored 23 points. Only 4 teams have come to Alabama and scored more than 23 points since November 11, 2007, covering 74 home games. The Kentucky defense is very good, but not as good as those 2 defenses, and if Mond and Co. could generate that type of yardage and points vs Clemson and Alabama they are sure capable of doing damage against Kentucky. The biggest edge may be the AM run defense which allows just 3.1 yards a carry, should be able to slow down Snell enough to force Kentucky into the air. Kentucky QB Terry Wilson has just 2 TDs and 5 INTs on the season, so if Texas AM can control the Wildcats ground game, they are going to be in good position to get a big win. This is the 3rd team AM has played against a team that is now 5-0, that experience, and offensive success will propel them at home. Make the play on Texas A%M.

The first leg of the Commander and Chief Trophy will see Navy heading to the Air Force Academy. There is no secret what to expect here, both teams run out of the triple option, and Navy has gone pretty much exclusively to the run, completing just 17 passes on the season. The one thing about the option is it is difficult to prepare for as most teams do not see it but once a season, but since both run their offense out of the option, they practice against it every day. That has led to a lot of lower scoring games than expected when Air Force, Army, and Navy get together. The last 48 times a game has been between 2 of these 3 schools the under is 35-13. This year has elements to conclude that to be the case in this one. Navy QB, Malcolm Perry is coming off a concussion, and Air Force QB Isaiah Sanders has a concussion and is questionable. Navy back up Zack Abby is also questionable, as he is used in the red-zone where he has 6 TD`s. Additionally, when Coach Niumatalolo is off a bye, his team has been 15-2 to the under, on the road. Navy is now 27-12 to the under vs a team that averages less than 150 yards a game, and 35-17 to the under vs a team that averages over 200 yards on the ground. Air Force is averaging 3.77 yards per carry on the season, their lowest mark in years. Make the play on the under.

The Illinois Ilini have not won a conference game in their last 13 tries, as they are 0-13. Ironically, they take on Rutgers, who is the last team they beat 24-7, also on the road. Rutgers has had no picnic either as they are 1-12 SU in their last 13 conference home games. The story line here is Illinois QB AG Bush has been upgraded to probable. Bush has played in just 1+ games as he injured a hamstring, and has been out since. Illinois is coming off a bye, which has helped this team with injuries, but also allows a QB to return that has generated 7.4 yards an attempt, and has rushed for 142 yards on just 26 carries, at 5.9 yards a tote. His replacement, M.J. Rivers threw for just 5.8 yards an attempt, and rushed for just 48 yards on 30 carries for 1.6 yards per carry. I see some hidden line value here, as the upgrade at QB helps both the running and the passing game. Rutgers has been brutal against the run all season. and are the worst passing team in the FBS generating 50% completions at 4.6 yards per attempt. Illinois is solidly the better team, should see improvement to the offense, against a very poor team all around. Make the play on Illinois.

Thursday Night Football is a difficult spot for a road team. It may be even tougher for the Colts tonight as their best offensive weapon, WR TY Hilton is out. The Colts presently have an NFL high 27 players on the injury report, and on a short week it is going to be tough. Home favorites have had a decided advantage to begin with as they are 123-87-8 ATS, and when it is considered an uncompetitive game, where they are a -6.5 point favorite or more, that jumps to 51-28-2 ATS, and if the total is greater than 39 it goes to 45-21-2 ATS. Moreover, the Colts are off an overtime game, and a team playing on Thursday off OT is just 6-25 ATS. New England gets Edelman back, Gronkowski is probable, and Gordon is now in full Patriot stride. Make the play on New England.

The Indianapolis Colts will be without TY Hilton tonight, which is a blow to their offense. They also have 27 players on their injury report, the top number in the entire NFL. The Colts have played 9 straight games as a dog to the under, averaging just 15ppg. Thursday night home favorites of -9.5 or more are now 14-0 to the under vs an opponent with revenge, as long as the total is greater than 35. NFL Thursday Night games with a home favorite are 82-55 to the under, including 20-4 from -9.5 and up, with the opponent averaging 11.2ppg. (9.4ppg ig the opponent is playing with revenge). Make the play on the under.

The NY Giants offense still looks rather ordinary, despite Barkley, Beckham, and Shepherd all healthy and in the mix. It seems the philosophy has changed some, as Eli Manning seems to get in trouble throwing mid to long range passes. he is completing a high percentage, but just 3 TD passes, none to Beckham. They are going to need to step things up vs New Orleans. Drew Brees seems to get better with age, and is completing over 80% of his passes at 8.4 yards per attempt, with 8 TDs and 0 INT's. While Manning's longest completion is just 37 yards, Brees has connected with 5 different receivers for 25 yards or more. Michael Thomas has 38 grabs through 3 games, which would project to an insane 200+ in 16 games, and with Alvin Kamara with 30 grabs, the Saints passing game has been flawless. Manning has had a 72.4 passer rating as a home dog in his last 5 years. Brees over his last 6 starts vs the Giants is 5-1 ATS and has a 114 passer rating, producing a sizzling 37.1ppg. Make the play on New Orleans.

Last week we saw these teams pressing at QB, with Blaine Gabbert taking hit, and in concussion protocol, forced the Titans to bring in an injured Marcus Mariota, who said he can't feel the ball in his hand. the Titans have played in mostly poor weather conditions this season, which has exposed a pedestrian offense even more, but should be somewhat better this week, but a lot of that depends on the health of Mariota. Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz looked a bit rusty in his debut after a torn ACL sidelined him late last season. he has been throwing to TE a lot, but that is something the Titans have defended very well. The key to this game, regarding the Philly offense v the stout Titan defense, is the return of WR Alshon Jeffery, as well as a healthy Jay Ajayi running the ball. The Eagles have had their greatest success running over tackle Lane Johnson, and there will be a huge mismatch against the Titan's right side with Derrick Morgan, who is a huge liability. The Titans have scored just 2 TD's all season, and Mariota managed just 4.8 yards per attempt vs Jacksonville. Wentz should be a bit more confident in his knee this week, and with Jeffries and Ajayi back, I think the defenses are a wash, but the question marks continue to loom large for the Titan offense with a QB that is feeling himself through games. Make the play on Philadelphia.

I don't play a lot of blind systems but this one is 117-47, to the under, so make the play on this game in the under.

Penn St. will host Ohio St. in the biggest game of the season so far. Both squads come in with a 4-0 record on the season, and rank 1 & 2 in points per game. Ohio St. QB Dwayne Haskins has certainly upgraded the Ohio St. offense, and the Buckeye aerial attack is striking for 10.2 yards an attempt vs opponents surrendering 7.5. There is little argument that the Buckeye offense is one of the best in the nation, perhaps 2nd only to Alabama. Penn St. and QB Trace McSorley are not quite up to those numbers in the passing game, but still potent at 8.6 yards an attempt. The key on offense for Penn St., is how well can they run the ball? They have been about 2 yards a play better in this regard, than their opposing defenses, and while Ohio St. has been above average vs the run, their schedule of opponents net just 4.4 yards a tote, while Penn St. is generating 6.4. While Ohio St. has some edge on offense, the Nittany Lions have an equal edge at the least, against an Ohio St. team that has played 2 good offenses in Oregon St., and TCU and were burned for big plays of 49, 78,80, and 93 yards. They certainly can't afford that here. Secondly, the Buckeyes only road game at TCU, resulted in a 40-28 win, but the real story was, Ohio St. scored 2 defensive TDs, had a +3 margin in turnovers, and were slightly out-gained per play by TCU. McSorley is 16-0 SU at home in his career, and 26-5 SU overall. The 5 losses have seen 4 decided by 3,3,3, and 1 point. Penn St. is 7-0 SU and ATS at home if not a favorite of 20 or more, and 6-0-1 ATS, and McSorley has never lost ATS home or away in competitively expected games lined from -7 to +7. Home dogs that have scored 38 or more points, in 2 straight wins are 98-44 ATS. Make the play on Penn St.

The Florida Atlantic Owls had a breakout season a year ago, but don't have the same level of all around talent that they did a year ago. Their biggest weakness is in their secondary where they have been carved up for a woeful 10.1 yards per attempt, arguably the worst in the country. Enter a QB that many are unaware of, in Middle Tennessee signal caller Brett Stockstill (coaches son), and trouble is looming. Stockstill is a 6th year serior, that is approaching 10,000 yards for his career, and could get there in this game. He also has 84 TDs to just 26 INT's while completing 68% on the season. He will own the biggest advantage in the field in this one. Middle Tennessee has averaged 32.5ppg in his 4 years directing the offense, and just shy of 40ppg at home. Hos one home start against FAU produced 77 points. MTSU is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following a 21 or more point loss in their last game, and I have a 64-26 ATS situation on them as well. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are just 1-3 on the season, and I believe this team is going to take some frustrations out on a very bad Bowling Green team, that matches up horribly against the Tech's triple option. Bowling Green has surrendered over 1300 yards on the ground through 4 games, including 558 yards on just 61 carries vs Miami,O. and E. Kentucky. The fact is G. Tech has never faced a team through 4 games or more allowing over 300 rushing yards a game. The Bowling Green offense is averaging just 4.3 yards a play and the Tech defense is slightly above average as well, so the Jackets have full control of every aspect of this game, including extensive garbage time, where they will still score on the ground. i have Tech with a 400 yard advantage in this game, make the play on Georgia Tech.

The LA Rams have looked like a Super Bowl team through the first 3 weeks of the 2018 season, and enter this game at 3-0. They certainly have done everything you could ask of a team. They have won each of their first 3 games by 12 points or more, and additionally have out-scored their opponents by 66 points. There have been just 5 other teams in the NFL to accomplish that, but now for the down side. Those 5 teams proceeded to go 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their next game. The Vikings have beaten teams that have a combined 1-8 SU record, with the lone win vs Buffalo. This will be their first true test. They will have to pass this test without the services of shutdown corner Aqib Talib, and likely without their other shutdown corner Marcus Peters. The Vikings will go to work targeting Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs. Vikings did a very good jon shutting down an elite Rams attack a year ago, limiting them to 7 points, and out-gaining them 451-270. Gurley was just 15-37 and no Ram rush generated 10 yards or more. Vikings are 45-24 ATS under Zimmer, and own a 13-0 ATS mark facing a team off a pair of double-digit wins, when they are not off a double digit win themselves. Rams have done a lot to become over-rated, and missing a pair of shutdown corners makes this game a lot closer. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in the 2013-14 season. Their offense was led by an emerging star in Russell Wilson, and their defense was anchored by numerous Pro Bowl defenders. Many thought this young, and talented team was built to win more. They had some very elite seasons, but never won since. The fact is this team has been in erosion slowly since. The Super Bowl team averaged 26.6ppg and allowed just 14.3ppg, look at what has happened since (year, offensive avg, defensive avg.)

2014        25.1        16.9

2015        25.4        17.6

2016        22.2        18.6

2017        22.9        20.8

2018        20.5        25.5

Since that Super Bowl win the offense has eroded by 6.1ppg and the defense by 11.2ppg. Combined, this team has been 17.3ppg worse on the scoreboard. They are missing 5 Pro Bowlers from the defense, and the offensive lie is in shambles, they can't run, ad Russell Wilson is under siege in every drop back. he has been sacked 12 times in 2 games, and the Dallas defense has been a sack machine. The 12th man has been considered lethal for opposing teams, but since Seattle has become a below average team, they have lost 4 of their last 5 here, the once impossible place to play has become winnable. Wilson is being forced into mistakes, and last week threw his first pick-6 since his rookie year, and fumbled in the 4th quarter, on a strip sack. A team that starts 0-2 has made the playoffs just 12% of the time, and that my speak a lot louder than the presumed Seattle 12th man, that has not had the same impact as Seattle erodes. Make the play on Dallas.

The Arizona Cardinals have managed 6 total points through 2 games. The 6 points they managed to score came in garbage time in the 4th quarter of their first game, with less than 6 minutes to go in the game. The biggest problem has been falling behind early, and having to throw the ball on almost every down. Sam Bradford therefore has been under siege and is averaging just 4 yards per attempt. The Cards longest run has been 11 yards, and longest pass 27 yards. Falling way behind early has limited their best offensive player, RB David Johnson to 11 carries a game. The NFL always looks different than it does 2 weeks into the season, and it forces the odds makers to over-adjust things in anticipation of the public's "what I have seen" posture of betting. Early season low totals have long been over-adjusted on a couple poor performances. Since the start of the 2005 season a week 3 total of 42 points or less, has seen the over go 54-21-1, beating the total on average by +5.12 points per game. Another indicator of an over-adjustment is the fact that when a team scores less than 7 points combined in 2 straight games, the over has been 27-10-2, beating the total by +6.96 points per game. The team that scored less than 7 points combined over 2 games, has come out in the next game averaging 20.1ppg. Make the play on the over.

NFL TOTALS, WHERE IS THE MONEY?

My research on sports betting totals is quite expansive. I believe that the easiest point of entry going against the books, and of course, the odds makers, can be achieved this way. The logic is pretty simple, some bettors hate totals, and even more bettors hate betting under the total, for the simple reason your bet may be lost before the game ends. 

The question then is, how do you find logical bets regarding totals, and successfully win at a high rate? The process begins as usual, by breaking down the 3 types of regular season games played in the NFL. They are divisional (6), conference (6), and out of conference (4). 

It would then make sense to take a look at match ups in all 3 levels to see what we are looking at:

GAME TYPE                 TOTAL RESULT O/U                WIN RATE     O/U

DIVISION                               1437-1546-53                           .482**

CONFERENCE                     1151-1152-59                           .500

NON CONFERENCE              881-841-26                             .512

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This is no surprise to me, the UNDER rate strikes more frequently, as the level of importance to the game increases. The order of importance is the exact order you see above, and there is a correlation to game importance and frequency of the under. 

So now that we have isolated an important find, that through over 3000 games puts us ahead of the coin flip by about 2% or a vig eater if you will, what is next?

It would make sense to me is to now look at the game expectations? Do lower totals rend to stay UNDER? Do they go over? It is time for us to handicap the total, much the same as we did to discover division games were out target.

TOTAL                     TOTAL RESULT   O/U                  WIN RATE  O/U

=40                              843-987-35                                   .461**

Games expected to play under are over-adjusted, but from 40 up, they are under-adjusted. Suddenly we are in a large pocket of profit, with a base of over 1800 games. 

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Our last step is the best step. A team is at their most comfortable playing on 6 days rest, that is the routine they follow 80%+ of the time. We complete our look by only looking at a host on 6 days rest, and out final situation reads as the following SDQL:

Play on the under in a regular season division game when the total is 40 or more, and the home team is on regular 6 days rest:

division = o:division and playoffs = 0 and H and total >= 40 and rest = 6SU:662-507-2 (2.07, 56.6%) Teaser RecordsATS:545-592-34 (-0.28, 47.9%)  avg line: -2.3+6:  790-361-20 (68.6%)  -6:  328-823-20 (28.5%)  +10:  915-230-26 (79.9%)  -10:  232-919-20 (20.2%)  O/U:498-652-21 (-0.90, 43.3%)  avg total: 44.

We now have a sample size of close to 1300 games, and a win rate of 56.7%. (that is a z-score of 4.5, which is absolutely off the charts for 1300 games)!

This situation over the last 10 years has won in 9 of the 10, where recent results are even better at 58.8%

division = o:division and playoffs = 0 and H and total >= 40 and rest = 6 and season > 2008SU:235-193-2 (1.43, 54.9%) Teaser RecordsATS:208-215-7 (-0.83, 49.2%)  avg line: -2.3+6:  289-136-5 (68.0%)  -6:  112-309-9 (26.6%)  +10:  333-88-9 (79.1%)  -10:  76-347-7 (18.0%)  O/U:174-248-8 (-1.67, 41.2%) 

This week the situation is active in the New Orleans v Atlanta game: UNDER would be the call.

The Memphis Tigers were 10-3 a year ago averaging 45.5ppg. They appear to be even better this season. This is going to be a very difficult game for S. Alabama who at best is average from the line of scrimmage, trying to defend a Memphis team averaging over 9 yards a carry on the ground, and over 9 yards a pass attempt. The Tigers are very good defensively, something they did not have too often a year ago, holding teams to 3.9 yards a play. Darrell Henderson has been a beast on the ground where he has picked up 521 yards on just 36 carries at 14.5 yards a carry. The speed on this offense is going to leave S. Alabama in the dust, and Memphis is certainly not shy about running up the score, scoring 63 or more 9 times in the last 5 years, this looks like #10. Make the play on Memphis.

The Kentucky Wildcats are off to a 3-0 start, and finally broke through vs Florida, beating the Gators for the first time in 31 years. This is a confident experienced team that has an NFL caliber back in Benny Snell, who has rushed for 2.779 yrs. in 2+ years. QB Terry Wilson has thrown for 392 yards, while running for 233 himself. Miss St. is very good on both sides of the ball, and QB Nick Fitzgerald is good with his legs and arm, and will present quite the challenge for the Cats. Last year Miss St. crushed Kentucky at home 45-7 so there is a huge revenge factor here for Kentucky. The Wildcats are as good as they have been in quite some time, and are being under-valued here. They have lost 6 SEC home games since the start of 2015, and 5 of them have been:

Florida      -1

Miss         -3

Georgia      -3

Florida      -5

Auburn       -3

Basically even with worse teams, they seldom get beat by much at home if they lose, and that list includes some strong teams. Kentucky applies to a situation that is 55-27-1 ATS, and I think the Cats are even capable of an upset here, so I'll gladly take the points. Make the play on Kentucky.

The Clemson Tigers certainly look the part of a team destined for the final four. Clemson will take on Georgia Tech who runs out of the triple option, where the ball is on the ground 80% of the time. The problem is, the option has not been successful against Clemson. This year the Tigers have gone against the option vs Georgia Southern, and even Furman has triple option elements in its offense. Tech runs it with better athletes, but the speed and size Clemson brings to the table has stopped the Tech option cold. The last 3 years, Clemson has held the Tech running game to 364 yards on 123 carries, at just shy of 3 yards a carry. The vulnerability in this Clemson defense is through the air, but Tech has completed 13 passes in 3 years vs Clemson, as that is simply not their offense. Tech is pretty pedestrian on defense, and they will have difficulty stopping a Clemson offense that is generating 7.4 yards per play on the season including an elite 9.3 yards per attempt in the air. This is a mismatch to start with, but the Tech style is not in the mold to threaten or compete with Clemson. Make the play on Clemson.

The scoreboard last week saw Washington win 24-6 over Arizona on the road, while Indianapolis was losing 34-23 at home to Cincinnati. The optics of those results has changed what was considered a fair line on this game from a -3 advanced line to now -6, in favor of the Skins. Things weren't as bad as they looked for the Colts trailing 27-23, and driving late, a fumble for a Bengal TD, and over and out. This sets this game up nicely, as team's that won by more than 10 points in week 1, covered as a dog by ,ore than 15, while their opponent did not cover, have not covered or won, since 2009, as they are 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS. Luck has a career 76% cover rate coming off a loss, and is 24-15 ATS with a total from 45-52. Alex Smith has a career 1-4 record vs the Colts and a passer rating of an ugly 68.4. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The NY Jets unveiled Sam Darnold last week, and are very optimistic off his strong performance, despite the first score of the game a pick-6 against him. The Jets won going away 48-17, but a lot of things happened here. The game was 17-17 early in the 3rd, when the Jets scored on a pick-6 and a punt return, and all together the Jets scored on a 62 yard run, a 41 yard pass, and a 21 yard pass, as 35 of their 48 points came on non-offensive TDs, or from outside the res-zone. The Jets also benefited from Matthew Stafford's 4 INT's. There was a lot to like about Darnold, but a lot of question marks as well, as sustained drives were very uncommon. Miami is glad to have Ryan Tannehill back. He was 20-28 for 230 yards, and 2 TDs. I think this game is a toss up, so getting a FG here is huge. Make the play on Miami.

The Ole Miss Rebels program spun out of control under Hugh Freeze, and they will once again be under Bowl sanctions. many will say this will be Ole Miss' Bowl game, facing Alabama, but that was true last year as well, and they lost 66-3. The Ole Miss offense appears formidable once again, but so was it last year, when they averaged 36ppg coming into the Alabama game, and were completely shut down. The bigger problem is the defense that allowed 34ppg last season, that gave up 41 to S. Illinois last week, and has allowed 44ppg to Alabama in the last 7 meetings. This may be the best Alabama offense in the Saban era. Tua Tagovailoa is throwing for 13 yds. per attempt with 7 TDs and 0 INT's. he is backed up by Jalen Hurts, and a bevy of RB's so the backdoor is less likely than ever for the Tide. NCAA Football is a momentum spirt. A road favorite that has won 2 straight by 27 or more points, against a team that allowed 37 or more in its last game is 155-88 ATS, with a sunset that is 80-29 ATS. Alabama is 10-3 ATS as a road chalk of 20 or more, including 8-2 ATS in the Saban era. Play on Alabama.

Tulsa won 10 games in 2016, and came back in 2017, and lost 10. They suffered a lot injuries, but this team simply was not competitive. Coach Montgomery, now in his 4th year, realizes the Golden Hurricanes fortunes have to change, or he will be out the door. He went for the quick fox of a poor defense, signing 8 JUCO Transfers for a defense. Arkansas St. has an experienced and really good QB, and 4 WR's that are from 6'3" to 6'6" all with skill. Last week Arkansas St. was ripped by Alabama 57-7 so they are not on anyone's radar, but the Red Wolves generated nearly 400 yards of offense against the Tide. Tulsa played Texas close, at least on the scoreboard, as they were out-gained by well over 100 yards. Arkansas St. is quite simply the better team, and should get the outright win here. Make the play on Arkansas St.

This game is based on an incredible situation that brings 2 teams together that both fit a similar situation, one as the home team, one as the road team. Auburn fits a situation that is 35-4-4 to the under, and LSU fits a very similar situation as the road team, which is 37-10-4 to the under. Combined these merging situations have gone 72-14-8 to the under. Make the play on the under.

he Seattle Seahawks team from 2013 that culminated in a 43-8 blowout win over Denver, had many thinking dynasty. The team was young, had an emerging QB in Russell Wilson, and a dominant RB. Despite all the predictions, Seattle has not won since. Once considered one of the best NFL defenses of all time, has been eroding since, and with 5 Pro Bowlers all gone now, expect a further erosion. here are the Seattle points per game allowed starting with the 2013 Super Bowl winning team:

2013    14.3

2014    16.9

2015    17.6

2016    18.6

2017    20.8

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It is very clear, the erosion has been occurring ever since, and now with just about all those Pro Bowl players, the defense is on course to be bottom third in the NFL. Denver was led by poor QB play last season, which resulted in their first losing record since 2010. They brought in Case Keenum, who had a breakout season in Minnesota a year ago. he still has a pair of Pro Bowl quality receivers in Thomas and Sanders who should benefit with him at QB. Denver is going to struggle with the loss of Aqib Talib, a top 3 cover corner. There is also the altitude in Denver to deal with. Players early in the season are not in as good of game shape as they are 4 games into the season. Denver has been posted as a home favorite 8 times vs NFC opponents in week's 1-3 (NFC teams play here just once every 8 years), and are 8-0 to the over in those games. Denver overall is 17-4-1 to the over, in week's 1-3, providing the game is not against a division opponent. (those teams play here every year). Seattle hasn't been here in 8 years, and pretty much the entire roster is different. make the play on the over.

The Seattle Seahawks, just 5 or so years ago were considered to be a dynasty in the making. They had a young inspiring QB, and a defense that was considered one of the best ever in the NFL. fast forward, and this team has been ripped apart, did not make the playoffs a year ago, and are now 5 Pro Bowlers removed from that vaunted defense. It appears the bottom has yet to be reached, and a further erosion is likely this season. Denver tried starting 3 different Qb's in 2017, Siemian, Osweller, and Lynch. The latter 2 went winless in 6 starts. The trio combined for 22 INT's, and none had better than a 73 passer rating. Enter case Keenum off a breakout season in Minnesota. he will have Sanders, and Thomas as Pro Bowl caliber receivers, and even if he regresses some from a year ago, he will be a substantial upgrade from a year ago. perhaps a bigger, and widely unknown factor here is the Denver altitude, early in the season, when players are simply not in game shape yet, as most starters make cameos in the NFLX. That has a major impact on opponents in week's 1 and 2, at home for Denver. Denver is 31-3 SU at home in the first 2 weeks of the season, 22-10-2 ATS. They win by an average margin of 9.88ppg, and cover by an average of 5.12ppg. Their last home loss in week's 1 and 2 at home came back on September 12, 2011. That was to a division rival, who plays here every year, outside of the division in week's 1 and 2 home games Denver has won 13 straight, last loss was on September 13, 1999, almost 20 years ago! They have won these games by an average of +13.26ppg and covered by an average of +9.21ppg. They have never lost to an NFC team, that play here just once every 8 years, they are 7-0 SU/ATS, winning by +15.43ppg and covering by +13.64ppg. Make the play on Denver.

The Cleveland Browns have won just 1 game over the past 2 seasons, and optimism is high this year, as they have added some offensive weapons to the fold. I certainly think the offense will be better, but in game 1, I wouldn't be as optimistic. The potential productive core of this offense has had very little time together. Pittsburgh (as of now), will make die without Le'Veon Bell a holdout. The Steeleers have been an under team for the last 3 years at 17-30-1 O/U, and 6-11-1 O/U in the division, and over the years, Pitt is 30-52-2 O/U to a total of better than 40 within the division, including 8-23-2 O/U lately to a total over 44, inside the division. It is a division that has seen 6 yrs pass without division games totaled higher than 40 finish with the bulk of them over. Pittsburgh's last 60 division games have seen just 12/60 (20%) score 47+ points, while Cleveland has seen 47/58 fail to score 47+. (19%). Think this line is off, and getting this out early, as I expect to see it fall. Make the play on the under.

Rutgers sure has had trouble since joining the Bog-12. That rings especially true against what are the annually best teams in the Big-10, Michigan St., Penn St., Ohio St., Michigan, and Wisconsin. Rutgers in their last 16 games against that group is 2-13-1 ATS having been out-scored 46-6. They have faced Ohio St. 4 times, losing by a combined score of 219-24, or 54.8-6.0. That is 49 points a game, and the distance between these teams is just as wide this year. Ohio St. has won every game by 39 points or more. Last week the Buckeyes put up 77 against Oregon St. They were even picked off in the end-zone on another possession, that was run back 82 yards to set up a FG. Three scores against them of 50,80, and 80 yards, wasn't even enough to keep it within 46. Ohio St.'s reserves continued to score, so I'm not so concerned about a back door cover here by Rutgers. One of the ugliest games on the schedule. Make the play on Ohio St.

Many will look at the FAU debacle at Oklahoma last week, and decide that last year's potent team was just a fluke, or that this team isn't nearly as good. last year they started 1-3, and proceeded to run the table. One of those early season losses was vs Wisconsin, where they got 9 first downs, to Wisconsin's 29. Wisconsin went for almost 600 yards, FAU about 250. Air Force is not Oklahoma, or Wisconsin, and they will travel over 2000 miles for this one. Air Force was 5-7 last year, and did not beat a single winning team. They opened with an easy win vs Stony Brook, but lost in the shuffle was their very poor 77 rushed for 333 yards, just 4.3ypc, 2 lost fumbles, and just 2 pass completions. The Air Force defense allowed 6ypc a year ago, and FAU is a powerful running team. Worthman runs the ball too much, and his completion percentage was under 50% a year ago, and things look the same. FAU off an embarrassing loss and coming home, will be primed to do big damage here. Make the play on FAU. 

Central Michigan went to Kentucky last week, and suffered a 35-20 loss. They managed to get the cover, but not much else. The Wildcats played an awful game, turning the ball over 4 times, forcing 0. They were lucky to win as a team making 4 turnovers, to their opponent's 0, have been 34-273 SU in NCAAF. Additionally, C. Michigan scored on a fumble return for a TD, so the offense with 4 extra possessions, put up 13. Kansas has not won more than 3 games in any season over the last 8 years. Their last win by more than 3 points vs an FBS opponent came all the way back to November 8th, 2014. They proceeded to lose at home to Nicholls St. in their opener, and the offense was dead, going back to last year's starting QB, Bender, is not the answer. I honestly don't know where the points are coming from here, neither team has a trustworthy proven QB. Make the play on the under.

TCU and SMU both reside in Texas, and have met with a high level of frequency through the years. SMU had some early success in the history between these teams, but recently, it has been all SCU. Gary Pattersin finally gets his prized 4* QB Shawn Robinson under center. Robinson was the first ever 4* QB recruit at TCU. Robinson is a bona fide duel threat QB, running 23 times for 6.9 yards a carry a year ago, and just 2 runs last week for 45 yards. He is surrounded by the highest rated skill set of players in TCU history, and against a Sonny Dykes team, that never has even an average defense, and was torched by N. Texas for 500+ yards a week ago, and completely shutdown offensively, it doesn't look like a good match up here for the Mustangs. N. Texas led 36-0 going to the 4th quarter, as the SMU offense could do nothing. SMU has an extremely poor history vs P5 schools, are 0-15 SU since a 2010 win vs Washington St, just 4-10-1 ATS. Longer term they are a woeful 1-31 SU vs Pr teams since 2001, and just 10-21-1 ATS. They have allowed 41.9ppg in those 32 contests, and this defense is capable of seeing that grow. Breaking diwn the numbers further shows the Mustangs at 3-18-1 ATS vs P5 schools from +32 or less in their last 22. Most recently, in their last 4 vs P5 teams, they have been out-scored 203-30. This looks like a bargain, and a blowout, make the play on TCU.

Hawaii had some question marks at QB entering the 2018 season, but those may have been answered quickly. QB Cole McDonald led a high powered run and shoot offense to perfection vs Colorado St. in a 43-34 upset shootout. The teams combined for 1270 total yards. McDonald was surprisingly good throwing for 418 yards, and 3 TD's, while running for 96 more and a pair of scores. Coach Nick Rolovich promised to bring in the run and shoot, and McDonald has the look of so many outstanding run and shoot QB's that have led high octane offenses. Navy has to replace 7 defenders from a year ago, and additionally has Malcolm Perry, called by 21 year Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo, the most dynamic QB he has ever coached. he will start, despite QB Zack Abey coming off a season of running for 1,413 yards (2nd best in Navy history). Hawaii showed a lot of holes on defense in their opener, allowing over 600 yards, so I am expecting a shootout here, with both offenses far ahead of the defenses. Navy has a history of allowing a lot of points to a team that went for 400+ on the air in their last contest, allowing 37.7ppg when facing them. The last 5 times Navy has been a double-digit road favorite, they have gone for 40+, and have averaged 38.2ppg as a 10+ point road favorite in all games. make the play on the over.

The W. Virginia Mountaineers were on the move last year at 7-3, losing only to V. Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. Those teams were a collective 31-9. They then lost QB Will Grier, and proceeded to lose 3 straight, by an average score of 39-20. It caused the Mounties to suffer on both sides of the ball. They went from winning at the line of scrimmage by +0.9 yards per play, to losing at the line by -2.6. The value of a healthy Grier goes beyond points. Tennessee averaged 14.1ppg in 8 conference games a year ago, never getting to even 27 points in any of them. The offense this season looks to be just about the same. Overall, they averaged 15.4ppg in their last 10. Grier is healthy, and W. Virginia is going to average over 40ppg this year (39ppg a year ago). The 3 best offenses this team saw a year ago were Alabama (45), Georgia (41), and Missouri (50). You can see where I am going with this. make the play on W. Virginia.

A lot of stuff going on at Ohio St. I'm sure these kids are itching to get on the field, and take out some of their anguish. They will do as they please vs an Oregon St. team that has not won on the road since 2014 (0-17), allowing 44.1ppg on the process. Overall, last year the Beavers allowed 43ppg, and I don't see much here that will improve upon that. This team is close to being a bottom 20 team in the country, and with so many injuries coming into game 1, at key spots, things could get worse. Ohio St. has been very good at these huge lined games, 12-7 ATS, and while there will be a lot of garbage time, the Ohio St. backups, in most cases, are better than the Oregon St. starters. Not much you can say about a game like this, except, this could easily be one of those 70-7 type games. Make the play on Ohio St.

The Wyoming Cowboys will have to experience life without QB Josh Allen, who was a first round pick in the NFL draft. Those are shoes that simply won't be filled anytime soon. Despite having a first-round NFL caliber QB, the Cowboys managed just 23.5 points per game last year, and there is a pretty good chance they will erode considerably from that pedestrian number. Wyoming had been looking forward to the return of RBs Trey Woods and junior Kellen, but Woods was declared ineligible, and the tandem fell shy of 1,000 yards last season. The good news is that eight starters return from a stingy defense that allowed 17.5 ppg, and forced a nation's best 38 turnovers. The Aggies ended the nation's longest Bowl drought at 57 years, and won their Bowl game to cap it off. It was their last season in the Sun Belt, as they become an FBS Independent. The offense will be led by Senior QB Nick Jeanty, who has five career starts and has passed for 1,028 yards with six TDs and six interceptions in 14 games. They bring back seven starters, along with Frank Spaziani, a former head coach at Boston College. He's made a huge difference, turning one of the nation's worst defenses in '16, into one that forced 27 turnovers, and saw the pathetic 11 sacks in '16 rise to 43 last year. Both of these teams will struggle offensively, but on defense they should both excel, so play this one to finish UNDER the total.

The Colorado St. Rams lost a strong QB from a year ago, but I think the offense is in good hands with K.J. Carta-Samuels coming over from Washington as a grad transfer. Their #1 receiver has departed but Olabisi Johnson, averaged 10.5 per target. The Rams passing attack has also added Tennessee transfer, Preston Williams, so I don`t think this offense is going to starve. Hawaii WR John Ursua, went down midway through last season and what was a pretty decent offense went in the tank. Ursua is healthy and is a difference maker. Colorado St. has a very suspect secondary, and are not all that good up front as well, and Hawaii should have success moving the chains. I think both these teams will have success moving the chains, and look for this game to play over the total.

It certainly looked bleak last week for the Minnesota Vikings, but the Minnesota Miracle, a play that will be shown over and over for the next decade, pulled them out of the fire, and into the NFL Championship game. Philadelphia, seemed doomed when Carson Wentz went down with a season ending knee injury, but Nick Foles, who has not done much, has been asked to manage the game, and not lose it, and allow the Philly defense to make plays. That has certainly been the case, as the total score in the Eagles last 3 games has been Philadelphia 34 Opponents 28. The 11.3ppg has been good enough to get them here, will it be good enough to get them to the Super Bowl? I don't think so. Minnesota QB Case Keenum is having one of those special years, and he may never repeat it, or he may be a great QB going forward. he has better weapons to throw to, and has been making big plays all season. I think last week the Vikings may have taken the pressure off leading 17-0, and it should of cost them, and it won't happen twice in 2 weeks, and Foles is not Drew Brees. Foles is throwing for 6 yards per attempt on the season, and just 5.2 in the last 3 weeks, which would grade out the worst in the NFL. It takes more than 1 side of the ball to win a Championship. A team that has allowed 30 points or less combined in their last 3 games, and at least the last one of those was in a playoff game, and this is a playoff game, allow on average 23.6ppg, so I expect Minnesota to score a decent amount, and the more they score in this game, the less likely Philadelphia is to cover and or win. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Jacksonville Jaguars after years of struggling have built their team to the extent that they are 1 game away from the Super Bowl. that one game will not be easy as they take on New England. The Jags defense that allowed 14.1ppg in their first 10, is suddenly not playing at the same level, having allowed 21.5ppg in their last 8. They needed 45 points to win last week. That leaves them in an ominous position as NFL teams that scored 40 or more points in the prior game, facing a team off at least 2 straight wins are 1-14 ATS in the playoffs. Their biggest challenge comes from defending Rob Gronkowski. The Pats will spread the field and look over the middle for him, and he is a huge play maker. The Pats also will utilize their backs on short passing plays, and take advantage of th 2 weak areas of the Jags defense. While overall they rank #1 covering the opponents top WR, and #2 against the #2 opponents WR, they are 20th against TE's and in the teens vs RB's. No one is more capable of exploiting this than Tom Brady. On the other side of the ball is a big question mark in Blake Bortles. He could be very good or very bad. One thing for sure, the Pats defense is vastly underrated. After allowing 32ppg in their first 4, the Pats have allowed 14ppg in their last 13, better than Minnesota, or Jacksonville. Scoing on defense is a huge asset of the Jag's, but NE doesn't very often throw a pick-6. Brady has attempted over 10,000 passes including the playoffs, and thrown just 13 pick-6's. It will probably take one for the Jags to cover here, and the odds certainly are well against that occurring. Make the play on New England.

There are a lot of reasons I like this game to go over and situationally there is support. Jacksonville, in non-division games off a win where they committed 0 turnovers and had time of possession of at least 28 minutes, facing a team off of at least 2 wins is 21-0 ATS to the over.

 I have access to a lot of NFL stats, and with the playoffs, and teams from northern climates, the weather can become a factor. This game fits nicely into a weather factor game, due to the cold, and a team from a southern climate. The high in Pittsburgh is expected to be 17 on Sunday, so this game will be played with temperatures in the teens. The most recent 36 games played with a game time temperature from 11-20 degrees shows a big impact on the passing game, and ultimately the number of plays run in a game. Home QB`s pass for an average of 5.85 yds per attempt, road QB`s just 5.25 yards per attempt, much below average. When you look at games played in an average temperature of 61-70 the number of plays run is 120, when the temp. is 11-20 it drops to 113, 7 less plays. Moreover, a team from a southern climate, such as Jacksonville, averages 16.4ppg in this temp. range. Overall, including both teams, the 146 QB`s participating in 73 games in this range have thrown TD passes of 3 in 14 games, exactly 2 in 31 games, exactly 1 in 52 games, and 0 in 49 games. That means TD passes per QB is 101 of 146 throwing 1 or less TD pass. These numbers sugget a wise historically backed play on the under

The Jacksonville Jaguars manhandled the Pittsburgh Steelers here earlier in the season. It became a defining moment for Big Ben after he threw 5 INT's in the game. he started publicly stating if he should retire, that he just didn't have it any more. He got over that moment fast and led Pittsburgh to a 13-3 record on the season. I think the Steelers will be a lot more ready this time. They have a huge advantage playing at home in cold weather. The history shows that ATS winning percentage goes up ti 55% for cold weather teams in December and January, but that is just part of the story. A lot of those teams, Cleveland, NY Jets, and Buffalo have been awful for a long time, just 1 Super Bowl between them, and that was close to 50 years ago. The elite cold weather teams such as Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England are a combined 143-94-7 ATS in December and January for 60.3% winners, and when facing the  12 warm weather teams they are 43-20 ATS and removing games played vs each other (6-9 ATS), they are 37-11 ATS. This makes for a huge advantage as these 3 teams have a lot of playoff, and Super Bowl history, and the operative here is elite. measuring all games shows a slight edge, but when your dealing with elite, it is exceptional. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

The New England Patriots find themselves in a familiar spot, at home on a Saturday Night in week 19. This is New England and many times these games have been played in less than ideal conditions, and that will be the case in Foxboro Saturday Night. Right now Saturday is projected to see the temperature go from the low 60s on Friday afternoon, with 2-3" of rain, to a low of 8 degrees Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. I know the field is covered, but it is going to be treacherous footing as the game goes on. A soft field is going to become rock hard, and icy during the course of the game. Additionally, winds will be gusting over 20 MPH, and the combination is going to limit offenses, and the kicking game. I expect Tennessee to try and run and shorten the game, and should have some success vs a soft NE front. The New England offense is not nearly as explosive as it has been in past years, and I look for this game to play under the total.

A familiar face and a team that has not won a National Championship since the days of Herchel Walker will square off in the NCAA Football National Championship game. The familiar face is Alabama, they have dominated the college football landscape in the Saban era, that began in 2008. His team is healthy again on defense, and we saw that vs Clemson, keeping the Tigers out of the end-zone. Alabama has lost just 14 games since 2008, and it isn't often a freshamn QB beats a Saban team, in fact there have been just 2, Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M, and Trevor Knight of Oklahoma. I'm not sure Jake Fromm is among the caliber of QB needed to beat Alabama, in fact 10 of the 14 QB's that posted a win vs the Tide in the Saban era were Jr's or Sr.'s. The Saban coaching tree is expansive, and all 11 coaches formerly on his staff are a combined 0-11 against him, losing by a combined margin of 316 points, or 427-111. Saban owns 20 wins vs top 5 teams, more than any other coach by a long shot. The odds makers have this one set with a line of -3.5 to -4, and a total of 45.5, which means the expected score rounding the line off to 4  and 45, would say 24.5-20.5. A perspective on that and a measuring stick would be that Saban is 112-1 SU when the opponent scores less than 23. Saban is also 9-1 ATS to a line of +6.5 to -4 at Alabama, 9-0 SU/ATS if the total is less than 55 in those games, covering by a staggering 18ppg. Georgia beat Oklahoma by virtue of long breakaway plays from the line of scrimmage in their running game. I doubt that will happen here. The Tide has allowed just 1 running touchdown of more than 5 yards this season (16 yards vs Auburn). They have also allowed 2 TD passes from outside of the red-zone all year, and one of those was to Fresno St. when leading 34-3, and back ups in the game. Alabama has allowed just 3 first half TD's all season, and Georgia can not afford to get behind here, because the running game is essential to their success. Saban has faced 18 monster running attacks at Alabama, each averaging over 250 yards per game, and held them on average to 38 carries for 125 yards. Georgia had problems defending Oklahoma as expected, but it was the way the Sooners gashed the Bull Dogs on the ground that is an eye opener. The Dogs have allowed 8 TD's from outside the red-zone. Alabama is healthy on defense, and held Clemson out of the end-zone, and 188 total yards. the Tigers had a potent running game that generated 64 yards on 33 carries. Auburn generated just 3.4 yards per attempt in their 26-14 win vs the Tide, with Alabama missing several key defenders. The Tide held Fla. St. (with Francois),Auburn, Clemson, LSU, A&M, Miss., and Miss St. all to 3.5 yards or less rushing the ball. It has also been 43 games since a team has run for 200 yards vs Alabama.  Chubb and Michel ran for 199 yards back in 2015 vs the Tide, but was down 38-3 at home, and Chubb broke one for 83 yards against reserves, in a 38-10 loss. This is a first for Georgia, while Alabama has been here many times before, and appear to be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Make the play on Alabama.

The New Orleans Saints and Carolina panthers have seen a lot of each other, as they both play in the NFC South. The Saints dominated the Panthers this season, winning both games, and doing what the Saints do, carve up defenses, scoring over 30 points in both games. The Saints have been a scoring machine at home averaging 30.1ppg, topping the 30 point average mark at home for the 3rd straight season. They have not been slowed down by this Carolina team at all, having scored 30 in 8 of the last 10 meetings in New Orleans. There is one major difference this year, the Saints allowed an average of over 30ppg at home the past 2 years, just 22.5ppg this year, they are equally explosive on offense, but much tighter on defense. Carolina is fairly tight in their front 7, but the secondary plays mostly zone, and for an experienced QB such as Brees, that is a great scenario for the Saints offense. Brees has averaged 31.5ppg at home vs the Panthers. A good measuring stick is the fact that a home team in the wildcard round that scores more than 20 points has been 35-1 SU and 30-5-1 ATS. The Saints have scored 20 or more in 22 of their last 23 home games. Some other things that trend toward New Orleans is a team that has given up fewer points in the regular season are 21-12-1 ATS, teams that allow less in defensive yards per point are 21-14-1 ATS. A team that has forced more turnovers is 20-11-1 ATS. The Saints have averaged 37ppg in their 4 home playoff games since division realignment, and Carolina has had just 1 road playoff game since 2005 and gave up 31. The line movement on this game is heading toward New Orleans, and when that happens, the team where the line movement is heading towards them, is 22-9 ATS last 31 NFL playoff games. Make the play on New Orleans.

It has been quite the turnaround for the LA Rams, a team that won just 4 games a year ago, and finished this season with 11. they went from a season scoring margin of -146, to +149, an amazing 295 point turnaround. It was almost entirely done offensively where the Rams went from 224 points scored to 478, while defensively they were pretty static year over year. While that is the feel good, there are some significant caveats and red flags as well. Just about everything broke perfect for this team. They beat Dallas when they were without Mike Lee, a situation in which Dallas loses most of the time. They beat Jacksonville with 2 special teams TD's. Lost to Minnesota by 17. beat new Orleans when they were missing both starting CB's. beat Seattle who was missing 4 of their top 5 players on the back 7 of their defense. That is a lot of breaks, and each situation was favorable for their offense. Teams that make such huge gains, year over year, make lousy playoff teams, in fact a team that won 4 or fewer games last year, but won 10 or more the next season are a woeful 0-10 SU, and 0-9-1 ATS in the playoffs, failing to cover by 9ppg. The emergence of Jared Goff is the biggest reason for the Rams marked improvement this season, but can he duplicate those performances in the playoffs? History says he will struggle. A QB making his 1st playoff start over the last 15 years is 11-27 SU, and 11-26-1 ATS, including 4-10 ATS as a home favorite. Moreover, a team that has not made a playoff appearance the last 3 years is 8-20-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Atlanta is a changed team, they battled injuries, mostly on offense, and did not come close to being the explosive offensive team they were a year ago. The biggest difference is the strides their defense made, as they are a legit top 10 defense, and while the points were a struggle, the Falcons gained the 8th most yards in the NFL, so they have better potential than their scoring numbers. The playoffs are a whole different animal, and the Rams have just 6 players totaling 21 games of playoff experience on their roster, while Atlanta is loaded with experience. Your going to read a lot about the Super Bowl curse. Only 2 teams that lost the Super Bowl the prior year, won it the next year, and none in the last 23 years. However, the teams that made it back to the playoffs the following year over those last 23 years (13), just 4 of them lost in the wild card round, and 9 moved on (69.2%), and the Falcons don't even have to move on, they just have to lose by less than a TD. better than that, the last 12 teams that played in the Super Bowl, the previous year and lost had just 1 team lose by as many as 6 points! So every one of them covered this line, but 1 would have pushed. make the play on Atlanta.

The Tennessee Titans will head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in the NFL Wild Card round. It has not been the type of season Titan fans expected from Marcus Mariota, as he threw for just 13 TD's and 15 INT's on the season, and for his career he is just 8-13 ATS on the road, and 8-16 ATS vs a defense allowing from 5.9 to 7.9 yards per pass attempt. Have to be concerned about the Titan schedule that feature just 2 teams that made the playoffs in their last 13 games, and they scored 15, and 17 points against them. The Bills and the Titans are the only 2 playoff teams that scored 17 or less 7 times this season. That may factor into the equation today as wild card road teams that score less than 17 points are 1-22 SU and 0-23 ATS. The Chiefs have been a feast or famine team this season, opening at 5-0, fading at 1-6, and finishing at 4-0. They are 10-0 ATS when they win, and 0-6 ATS when they lose, and are now 16-0 ATS in their last 16 wins. Wild card round home favorites of greater than -7.5 are 11-0 ATS since 1994. There is another huge concern for the Titans. Demarcus Murray has been ruled out. The Titans have used both Murray and Henry situationally and equally all season, trying to wear down the defenses. Last game, with Murray out, Henry ran the ball a season high 28 times, more than double the amount of carries he has had since week 6. he is sure to be feeling it coming back on 5 days rest. Moreover, he has shown fatigue in his last 4 games, rushing for just 115 yards on 51 carries, or 2.25 yards a carry. There is another issue. Murray was an instrumental part in the Titan's pass attack. He caught 39 balls, while Murray has just 11 catches all season. The Chiefs win because of ball security and a ball hawking defense. Over the last 3 years the Chiefs have forced an NFL high 88 turnovers, while turning it over themselves just 42 times, for a plus 46. Teams entering the wild card round with a season turnover edge are 20-11-1 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL - Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Sugar Bowl will play host for round 3 of Clemson v Alabama. These teams have split games the past 2 years in the Championship game, this year just 1 will make it, the winner of this game. Clemson is 40-3 SU over the period and the Tide is 39-3 SU, as both have dominated NCAA Football the past 3 years, with a combined 4 losses vs any other team. There are a lot of similarities, but one huge difference. Deshaun Watson is no longer at Clemson. To put into perspective what he did in the last 2 meetings, how about this stat. Clemson gained 1,055 yards vs Alabama the last 2 years, and Watson accounted for 825 of them through the air, and another 116 on the ground for a total of 941 of 1055 yards, or a ridiculous 89.1% of all yards. I have a great deal of respect for Kelly Bryant, but he is filling impossible shoes. We all knew how good Watson was, but it was certainly deemed real when he started dominating in the NFL as well before he was injured. Clemson is not an elite offense this year, far from it. They average 6.0 yds per play vs a schedule of opponents that combine to allow 5.7. Compare that to Alabama who averages 6.9 vs a schedule of opponents allowing 5.7. Defensively both of these teams are as good as it gets, Clemson allowing 4.3 yards a play vs a schedule of opponents that have combined to average 5.6. Alabama is allowing 4.0 to a schedule of opponents that combine to average 5.7. Alabama has better numbers on both sides of the ball, and more importantly, an experienced QB that has been here before. Jalen Hurts has thrown 1 INT all season, and Alabama seldom beats themselves, and has not made more than a single turnover in any game this season vs an opponent that was over .500 prior to the game. Alabama was not healthy late in the season, they lost 3 top LB's and they are all ready to go now. The defense may in fact be better. This will likely be a lower scoring game than the shootouts we have seen in the first 2, as I think both offenses are not as good, although I give the edge to Alabama, and the experience to Alabama, while the defenses are as good as ever. Revenge, experience at QB, a better offense. Saban is 9-2 ATS if he is a favorite of -4 or less, including pick or dog. Make the play on Alabama.

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

The Rose Bowl will host the 1st playoff game that has a pair of 12-1 teams, with stark contrasts going at it. Georgia power running game, and great defense, vs Oklahoma's power passing attack. The one question that comes to mind certainly is the health of Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, who has suffered the last several days from what is described as flu-like symptoms. He has been limited in practice, and did not participate in team events. While he may be fine, he may have issues with hydration, and stamina, we will have to see. I will assume he is 100% healthy. Thre have been a handful of January Bowl games that have put a prolific offense, against a prolific defense. I would define that as an offense that has averaged greater than 42 points a game coming into their January contest, going against a team that has allowed less than 16 points per game. Most of these games play out very close, as since the start of the 2006 season there have been just 8 such games, and 5 of them have been decided by 1 possession. If you go back all the way to 1987, there have been 22 such games. These games have seen the powerful offense average just 24.2ppg, while allowing 23.4ppg. They have on average played out very close. What you see by the numbers however, the games have not been very high scoring, in fact, 19 of the 22 failed to get to the total posted in this contest, and all 8 since 2006 have played under the total, and the most points the winner has ever had is 35, while the most points the loser has ever had is 21, which is still shy of the posted total here. The general history shows any Bowl team that averages more than 42 points a game erodes from the layoff to an average of 30ppg in a January Bowl game, while team that allows less than 16ppg, erodes a much lesser rate, allowing 21ppg. Neither of those scenarios says this one gets into the 60s. Make the play on the under.

ND is missing about 50% of their TD catches from an already suspect passing game. Running game has not been good against the better defenses. Josh Adams well over 1000 yds against crap teams, just 69-220 vs GA.MICH ST.,MIA,STAN,WF, similar lack of success for Wimbush, 264 vs those teams. ND  2-3/1-4 run for under 100, 7-0/6-1 over it. LSU much improved against the run down the stretch (

It has been quite a turnaround at C. Florida, a team that was 0-12 just 2 years ago ran the table to finish the season at 12-0. They do however have one big obstacle in the way, and that is Auburn. Many have already considered that Auburn will be a no-show, having lost the opportunity to play in a National Championship game, and I don't believe that is going to be the case, at least if you take a look at history. I take you back to the 2006-07 season. Hawaii led by Colton Brennan had an unstoppable offense. Brennan had completed 73% of his passes, and ran the ball well. He finished the year with 5,549 passing yards, and a ridiculous 58 TD's. Most thought the warriors would take down a tough defensive SEC team in Georgia. Well, they lost  41-10, ran the ball for negative yardage, and a team that passed for 10 yards per attempt was held to 5.5, and 6 turnovers. Next up was the unbeaten Cincinnati team, taking on a powerful SEC defense. Tony Pike had 29 TD's , but against the Florida defense was stopped cold, 170 yards at 3.8 yds per attempt, and the power running game as held to 3.3 yds a carry, and 76 yards. Florida won 54-21, (led 37-3 and called off the dogs). How about the amazing Jordan Lynch for N. Illinois. Lynch passed and ran over everyone, until meeting the powerful Florida St. defense. Lynch finished that year just shy of 2,000 rushing yards as a QB, but just 23-44 vs Florida St, and 15-41 in the air, 176 yards at 4.3 an attempt. They lost 31-10. How about the amazing Ball St. team behind Nate Davis. Davis averaged a prolific 9 yds an attempt. , he went 9-29 vs Tulsa for 143 yards, his team was 28-81 on the ground. Now it is the potent offense of C. Florida that goes up against an elite Auburn defense. Auburn also has an elite offense. We saw Memphis that rolled over everyone, get held to 20 vs Iowa St. This Georgia defense is way beyond what Iowa St. has. The SEC since 2006 is 9-1 ATS vs an unbeaten team in a Bowl game, and look for that to go to 10-1 after Auburn crushes C. Florida. Make the play on Auburn.

The South Carolina Gamecocks and the Michigan Wolverines are both 8-4 heading into their New Year's Day Bowl game. South Carolina perhaps played their best 2 games, in their first 2. They beat a good NC State team, and dominated Missouri, although Missouri was not good at all early in the season. They have had offensive issues all season, have not had a single running back carry the ball even 100 times, and the passing game behind Jake Bentley has been average at best. He has thrown for 16 TD's, but also 11 INT's. Th offense was derailed completely vs the 2 top defensive teams they faced, in Georgia, and Clemson, scoring just 10 points in each. They combined for 487 yards in those games on 133 plays, for a woeful 3.6 yards per play. Michigan brings in a defense capable of the same. The Wolverines could not handle the Big-10 elite teams, as all 4 losses came to Penn St, Michigan St., Wisconsin, and Ohio St. Those 4 teams are a combined 46-8, and Michigan managed just 13.3ppg in the 4 contests, and allowed 27.8ppg. The 8 wins were an entirely different story. The Wolverines averaged 32ppg and allowed 13.3ppg, winning all 8 games by 7 points or more, and 7 of the 8 by 16 or more. There is optics saying that Brandon Peters is an upgrade at QB for Michigan. O'Korn and Speights, combined for 5 TD's and 8 INT's, while Peters has passed for 4 TD's and 0 INT's on 37-64 passes at 7.6 yards per attempt, much better than the previously mentioned Michigan QB's. While the sample size is relatively small, one would be encouraged that Peters may be more than what the Wolverines have had much of the season. Michigan isn't likely to get to the 32ppg they have averaged in their previous 8 wins, but they are likely to get in the 20s, and I have a lot of reservations regarding the very pedestrian offense of South Carolina, to score much at all here. The Gamecocks also have kicking issues, with 2 kickers combing to go 12/25 on FG attempts, and if they miss out on 3 points here, it will add to their scoring woes. Michigan in this one.

This game is based mostly on my strongest NFL totals angle which is 116-46 ATS. Make the play on the under.

Week 17 is strange in the NFL, but one strange coach, Bill Belichick doesn't seem to ease up. While the Pats have often clinched the division, or a playoff slot by this time, it hasn't slowed them down. The Pats own the best week 17 record in the NFL at 19-7 ATS, and under the Hoodie, they are 13-4 ATS. Temperatures going to be in the single numbers for this one. The Jet's offense under Bryce Petty has been awful, as he has completed just 50% with 1 TD and 3 INT's, and a woeful 4.4 yards per attempt. Jets averaging just 8.8ppg in their last 3. Petty now has a 55.1 passer rating in the 9 NFL games he has played. NFL huge home favorites in week 17 of -11.5 or more points, that have 11 or 12 wins are 12-0 ATS, winning on average 35-10. Make the play on New England.

Week 17 NFL home teams playing to low totals of less than 42, and a line from +5 to -2.5 are 61-27-2 ATS. Make the play on Philadelphia.

Week 17 NFL home teams playing to low totals of less than 42, and a line from +5 to -2.5 are 61-27-2 ATS. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Minnesota Vikings have overcome a lot of key injuries, to put themselves in position to earn a 1st round bye with a win over Chicago today at home. The Vikings have worked to hard to let this opportunity slip away. John Fox was hired to turn the Bears around, but Chicago is just 14-33 since he took over. Perhaps what is most notable for the Bears this season is the fact that they are 4-0 vs the AFC, but 1-10 vs the NFC, and most importantly 0-5 in the division failing to cover any of them. This isn`t a new problem, the Bears are 4-19 SU in the division in their last 6 years, and 11-20-3 ATS. (3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS on the road). Week 17 home favorites of -11.5 and up, with 11 or 12 wins are 12-0 ATS winning by an average score of 35-10. Minnesota is now 42-15-1 ATS in their last 58 games, which includes 4-0 ATS from -9 and up. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Miami Florida Hurricanes have their Bowl game at home, but despite of that they are posted as an under dog. The Canes have won 9 straight here, and have been posted as a home dog just 29 times since 1980, and have been 2-10 to the under since 2000. The Canes always play tough on defense at home. No team is even close to what they have done on home turf allowing an amazingly stingy 15.1ppg in their last 240 home games. WOW! Better than that, the Canes have not allowed any opponent to score more than 30 points here in 15 straight games, and that team was down 38-16 with 11 minutes left. Wisconsin has been amazing defensively themselves, as the Badgers allowed 2 teams to score more than 17 against them this year. Only the ultra elite offense of Ohio St. scored 27, no one else more than 24. Last year Ohio St. got 30, no one else more than 20, and in 2015 Alabama scored 35, no one else more than 24. They have allowed 14.2ppg over their last 40 contests, and are 10-4 to the under in their last 14 to a total of 45 or less. Make the play on the under.

We are beginning to learn that the Pac-12 is not as good as people expected. They are 1-6 SU so far, and as I am writing this at halftime, USC is getting manhandled by Ohio St. The Big-10 is 4-0 so far, and Ohio St. has a big lead at the half, so likely 5-0. Penn St. is 4 points from perfect on the season, suffering a 1 point loss to Ohio St., and a 3 point loss to Michigan St. They are the closest P5 team to having a perfect season, missing by 4 points. What that means is this team has been consistent all season. Washington lost just 2 games, but did not have to face USC, and their out of conference schedule was weak. The Pac-12 is obviously over-rated, and I will ride with Penn St. who is 11-2 ATS since 1980 in Bowl games from +1 to any size favorite. 

Memphis averaged 47.7ppg on the season. They were one of the most dominating and potent offenses in the FBS. I`m not so sure of that. The AAC had no team with much of a defense at all. Including Memphis, the AAC had 5 teams that averaged #121 or worse in yards allowed per game, and Memphis played all of the other 4. Additionally Memphis went against UCL! #123, and UL Monroe #129, and S. Illinois, an FCS team. If you add S. Illinois to the list of opponents, the Tigers offense out of 130 FBS teams faced:

#130
#129
#128
#127
#123
#122
Plus S. Illinois of the FCS

That is most of their schedule against the 7 worst defenses in the country! They also faced #100 Tulane, #94 C. Fla (2), #95 Cincinnati, and #89 Houston. There isn`t a team in that mix above top 2/3 of all teams. Iowa St. is very familiar with big offenses in the Big-12, and despite of that, finished ranked #45. This will by far be the toughest test for Memphis yet, not even close, and they may have some issues with a resistance they have not seen all year. Iowa St. has had the upset mind all season, may add another here. Make the play on Iowa St.

Lost in the Louisville disappointing season was the fact that Lamar Jackson had a better season than last year when he won the Heisman Trophy. What Louisville could not overcome was a horrific defense that allowed 27.1ppg. Louisville was at one time just 5-4 before closing the season with 3 straight wins and covers, but against much lesser opponents than they will face today. Louisville did not beat a single opponent that finished the season with 8 or more wins. The defense was not only bad, they will not have the services of their top 2 defenders in DB Jaire Alexander, and pass rusher James Hearn. This just further weakens an already bad defense. Freshman Kaytaon Thompson did a decent job in relief after Fitzgerald was injured vs Ole Miss, and he has had 5 weeks taking all the snaps, and is said to look very good. He is also a runner, and I don't think the Miss St. offense is going to suffer a decline, especially with a poor Louisville defense. Miss St. has given up just 31 to Georgia, and Alabama, and I think they could win this game if they hold Louisville to that. Louisville apples to a 29-70 ATS Bowl system based in part by their 3 straight ATS wins coming into their Bowl game. Make the play on Miss St.

The Cotton Bowl will host the biggest Bowl of the season thus far as 11-2 Ohio St. squares off with 11-2 USC. Ohio St. is equal to both Alabama, and Georgia from the line of scrimmage this season. All 3 teams are +2.9 yards per play better than the average of all their opponents. USC is not even close. What kept Ohio St. out of the playoffs is the dud they threw up at Iowa. USC may have been in the conversation, if they did not throw up a dud at Notre Dame. While Ohio St. has a tremendous statistical advantage here, they have made costly mistakes, that have held them down. Against Oklahoma, Penn St., Iowa, Mich St., and Wisconsin they out-gained the 5 toughest opponents by 6.4 to 5 yards per play. If you take out the Iowa debacle, it is significantly more than that. I can't justify not playing them here with such a decided advantage in the trenches. USC has the offense to score some her, but their defense is simply not equipped to stop Ohio St. Sam Darnold seems to be back in control, but he has not hurt anyone with his legs this year, as he did a year ago. J.T. Barrett has 9000+ passing yards, and 3000+ rushing yards, and a boatload of experience. Urban Meyer in playoff games, championship games, and Bowl games is 14-5 ATS, including 11-2 ATS when his team is better than .750 but less than unbeaten. The only 2 failed covers have come vs Clemson, 11-0 ATS vs anyone else. Make the play on Ohio St.

The 7-5 Kentucky Wildcats will take on the surging 9-3 Northwestern Wildcats in the Music City Bowl in Nashville,TN. Kentucky with an 8th win could match the most wins by any Kentucky team since at least 1979. Nashville is just 3 hours from campus, and the previous 4 times they have played here, it was a sellout, they will have huge fan support. Northwestern has been on fire, winning and covering 7 straight games, but that just fuels line value on the other side. Teams that have covered 4 straight or more heading into their Bowl game, are just 58-90 ATS, and Northwestern falls into a 3-23 ATS subset of this situation, winning just 6 of the 26 outright! Make the play on Kentucky.

The Arizona St. Sun Devils at 7-5 on the season will take on the 8-4 NC State Wolf Pack in the Sun Bol in El Paso,TX. Should be perfect football weather with a game time temperature expected around 68 with a light breeze. The Wolf pack has a high ceiling to their 'A" game, beating Louisville, and scoring 31 vs Clemson, generating nearly 500 yards, holding a lead late into the 3rd quarter. NC State has become QB-U, as the Pack has 4 QB's in the NFL, and if Jr. Ryan Finley declares for the draft, they will soon have 5. The Sun Devils have struggled offensively vs the better defenses on their schedule, as vs Stanford, USC, SD St., Utah, an Washington they averaged just 20.4ppg, and close to 40ppg vs everyone else. NC State is an above average defense, and would expect them to hold the Sun Devils below their season average, while NC State scores above theirs. NC State also fits a 120-69 ATS Bowl situation here. Make the play on NC State.

Wake Forest has won 7 games or more now, each of the past 2 seasons for the first time in 8 years. They own wins vs Louisville and NC State this season. The offense is as good as we have seen here in years averaging 33.6ppg. Texas A&M comes in at 7-5 lacking a signature win on the season, beating Nichols St., LA Lafayette, Arkansas, SC, Florida, N. Mexico, and Ole Miss, and was over-matched vs every good team on their schedule. despite only having 4 road games all season. The Aggies allowed 40+ in 4 games on the season. Wake Forest will have the crowd behind them here, as they will be playing just a 90 minute drive from campus. A&M in the midst of a coaching change, and it will be a challenge getting this team motivated. A&M is in a poor 94-128 ATS Bowl situation as well. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Luke Falk has been one of the best college QB's in history. The numbers this season are not nearly as good as what they have been, as yards per attempt is down, TD passes down, and INT's are up. Perhaps most revealing is the breakdown. Falk dominated the poor teams on the schedule, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon St. and Montana St. In those 6 games he threw 20 TDs and o INT's. Th other 6 games vs Boise St., USC, Arizona, Stanford, Utah, Washington he threw 10 TDs to 13 INT's, hardly numbers warranted by a star QB. Michigan St has a very strong defense, and Falk will be missing his 2 top WRs both suspended. Michigan St. held 7 opponents to 14 or less on the season, and should score enough here for the win. Make the play o Michigan St.

There is one hidden factor in this game, and that is the real power of the TCU defense. They got ripped apart by the elite offensive teams they faced this season. The 5 teams they faced that averaged from 34.5ppg to 46.2ppg. averaged 34ppg against them. That being said all 5 of those teams scored below their season average by about a TD per game. The 8 other games they played, not including a shutout vs a FCS team, the Frogs held opponents averaging 18.7 to 34.3ppg to 7.4ppg! Stanford would qualify to be in this group. These teams averaged 20ppg less than their average, and 5 of them scored 7 or less. Make the play on TCU.

The last 13 Bowl teams that came into their Bowl game allowing 30 or more points per game are 0-11-2 ATS. Teams that average over 40 points a game are 72-94-1 ATS as well, and average scoring just 30ppg. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Sometimes you need to watch what you say, or like in a court of law, it can, and will be used against you. Long time Athletic Director at Texas, now special assistant to the President, said the following:

" Our bad years are not that bad, take a school like Missouri, our bad years, are better than their good years."

Bowls are in large part about motivation, and you can be sure the Tigers are going to be bringing a little extra to this contest. This is a changed Missouri team, one that started 0-5 vs FBS schools and ended 6-0. The 6 game streak saw them go from getting outscored 42-18 to finishing the last 6 out-scoring opponents 52-21. It is the biggest such turn around in NCAA Football history, 1st half of the season to 2nd. That equals 55 ppg. WOW! Texas has a good defense, but looking back at Missouri's game with Gorgia, before they got hot they put 28 on Georgia, who is much better than Texas defensively. The Tigers have won and covered 3 straight Bowls. Texas is 9-18 ATS in their last 27 Bowl games (1-5 vs a team with 7 or less wins). This will be just the 4th of those 27 Bowls played prior to 12/28, meaning this is a fringe Bowl for this type of team. SEC favorites of -3.5 or less are 23-8 ATS in Bowls (11-1 ATS last 12). The SEC has dominated the B-12 Conference at 17-4 ATS in Bowl games, and an active 16-1 ATS subset. Make the play on Missouri.

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

Boston College fans should appear in large numbers, as they are just 3 hours away from NY City, at Yankee Stadium. This game is the furthest north played outside of all Bowl games, and whoever runs the ball better is likely going to be the winner. Game time temperature around 20 degrees, with windchill about 10, dropping during the game, and we could see wind chill values at or below 0 before the game is over. BC was a different team once they started to hand the ball off to A.J. Dillon. Through 6 games, BC averaged a paltry 16.3ppg, as Dillon carried 89 times for just 333 yards, at 3.7 per carry, and BC was 2-4. The last 6, Dillon carried 179 times for 1091 yards at 6.1 yards per tote, and BC scored 36ppg, going 5-1. Despite the running heroics, it helped BC keep balanced, as it opened up the passing game, and they finished with 23 rushing TD's and 24 passing TD's. The BC offensive line is the best unit on the field. They allowed just 13 sacks, and were penalized just 11 times all season, and that is the difference maker. Iowa finished 11th in the B-10 rushing, not a good sign for this type a game. Kirk Ferentz has been around a long time, but he has lost 5 straight Bowl games by 7,17,17,27 and 29 points, so he seems to use them more for looking ahead to the next season instead of winning. The ACC is 41-24-3 ATS in Bowl games from -1.5 to +5 including 27-11-1 ATS vs P5 opponents. Make the play on BC.

The Florida St. Seminoles were supposed to be in the running for a National Championship. How things have changed. The Seminoles lost QB DeAndre Francois in game 1, suffered through a myriad of injuries, and now have lost their coach as well, and at 6-6, on the line is their 40th consecutive winning season. It took wins vs LA Monroe, and Delaware St. to secure a Bowl bid. The Noles have beaten just 1 other team  by a margin big enough to cover this one. Slorida St. is 19-6 ATS in their Bowl game if favored by less than -7, and 4-5-1 ATS otherwise, and tends to under-achieve as a big favorite. Southern Miss represents themselves well here, as this is their 21st Bowl game since 1980, and lost just 1 by 17 points, all others covered this number. C-USA Bowl dogs of +7 or more are 15-7 ATS as well. Florida St. in a 1-19 ATS situation here. Make the play on Southern Miss.

Duke Coach David Cutliffe has done a remarkable job at Duke. he has coached in 9 Bowl games (some at Ole Miss), and his team's have been a well prepared 7-2 ATS. N. Illinois has limited offense, and are not a good come from behind team. Duke started the season at 4-0, but lost 6 straight, and rebounded with a pair of wins in their last 2 games to finish 6-6 at get here. The MAC Conference has laid an egg vs P5 teams in a Bowl game (including the Big East), when getting less than +7. The MAC in this spot is 0-10 ATS and failing to cover by 10ppg. make the play on Duke.

West Virginia's offense has been led by Will Grier, and has been ruled out of the Mountaineers Bowl game vs Utah. More bad news is top RB Justin Crawford will sit out as well. There is big drop off on the W. Virginia offense as Grier threw 388 times, and Crawford ran 191 times, and Grier had 63 runs as well. Those numbers account for nearly all the WVU snaps this season. Utah is not a good offensive team, but the defense is very good. Big-12 Bowl teams from X-Mas to New year's eve  are 27-13 to the under as well. make the play on the under in this one.

When the Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 43-8 in the 2013-14 season, the young talent on both sides of the ball had many suggesting they would be winning a lot more. They have not won one since, and the evidence is mounting that this team is starting to erode year by year. A quick look shows in 21013, when the won the Super Bowl the derfense allowed 14.3ppg, here is what has followed:

2014    16.9

2015    17.6

2016    18.6

2016    21.0

It isn't just the defense, the offense that averaged 26.6, 25.1, and 5.4 from 2013-15, has averaged 22.2, and 22.9 the last 2 years. All together this team has eroded by 7ppg defensively, and 3.7ppg offensively, or a combined 10.7ppg. They are still a good team, and injuries have held this team back some. A perspective would be the fact that this team allowed 30+ points in a game just 4 times form 2011-13 and 5 times in their last 8 weeks this season. The last one, 42 at home, sets them up in a brutal situation today. A team that allowed 42 points their last game, and is now playing as a road dog vs a team on a 2 or more game winning streak is 1-41 SU, and 8-34 ATS. Make the play on Dallas.

The Tennessee Titans have lost 2 straight games, and while the optics are not there for this team right now, they still control their own playoff destiny, no worse than a wild card winning their final 2 games. The optics were different just 2 weeks ago when they were 8-4. The NFL is like the stock market, buy low, and sell high. The issue for this team as I see it, is the offense is better running the no-huddle, and it wasn't until they got behind, that they trended toward it. The game plan this week will no doubt include more. The Titans are a different team at home where they have beaten Baltimore, and Seattle, and won 5 straight. LA is coming off of 2 hugely physical and emotional games vs Philadelphia, and last week at Seattle. Their 42-7 pounding of Seattle holding them to 149 total yards has a lot to do with the over-lay here. Week 16 home dogs with a total of greater than 37 are 72-36 ATS. Make the play on Tennessee.

The New York Jets have thrown up a pair of duds the last 2 weeks, vs Denver and New Orleans. That is not much of a surprise, as New York has a lonely 1 win on the road this season, vs 0-15 Cleveland. they have been a much better team at home, and to a tough schedule of opponents. The jets beat Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Kansas City here, and lost to New England, Atlanta, and Carolina all by 1 possession. I certainly think they will hold their own here vs the Chargers. LA started 0-4, and had little margin for error to sniff the post-season, and last week's loss at Kansas City has left those hopes on life support. jets fit many good situations here as well. Make the play on the New York jets.

NFL SURFACE AND VENUE CHANGES NOT A HEALTHY BET:

A lot has been searched and written regarding changing surfaces in the NFL. While nothing I have read has shown any major advantage or disadvantage, I happen to disagree, when all the right elements are applied. Today in the newsletter we will explore what happens to a significant road favorite, changing venues (home), and now away and going from an artificial surface to grass, things often do not work out as they are expected.

THE PARAMETERS:

1) Play against team going from artificial home surface to grass road surface

2) Play against team is a road favorite of -7 or more.

Believe it or not, that is it!

These teams have stumbled greatly going:

33-55-3 ATS covering just 37.5% of all games. 

When you consider week 16 is the home dog week in the NFL: 78-55-7 ATS 58.6%, and this system is 1-8 ATS in week 16


This all rides unfavorably against Minnesota this afternoon. 

Make the play on Green Bay

A Bowl team coming off a prolific offensive game heading into their Bowl game have been awful teams to bet on. The Appalachian St. Mountaineers put up 63 in their final regular season game. Bowl teams that scored 60 or more in their last game, are 13-30 ATS in their Bowl game, including 0-13 ATS most recently. make the play on Toledo.

The Army is 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 games played in Texas, and will be looking for the big sweep this season. They have won the Commander and Chief trophy for the first time since 1996, beat Navy, and the hat-trick would be to win their Bowl Game. Military teams are tough to prepare for running the flex-bone, and in a Bowl game that seems to be doubled-down, as Military schools are 30-14 ATS in Bowls since 1980, as well as 19-3 ATS when facing a team better than .600. Make the play on Army.

Bowl teams that enter their Bowl game with 2 losses, and one of those losses was in their last game, often get mistaken for a disappointed team. After all, a 1 loss team would likely be playing in a major Bowl, and having lost their last game, the Bowl is obviously much less. That has not been the case, as all Bowl teams with 2 losses, with one of those losses occurring in their last game, and facing an opponent off a win are 17-1-1 ATS. Make the play on S. Florida.

The Wyoming Cowboys have an NFL caliber QB in Josh Allen. The problem is he is protected by a poor offensive line, a poor running game, and he has not played since Nov. 11th due to a shoulder injury. he has been upgraded to probable. His numbers have suffered this season and his 6.6 yards per attempt and 56% completion percentage is down from 8.6 a year ago, and his replacement Nic Smith is at 54% and 6.4, not much difference. The Cowboys win on defense. They have allowed 12.6ppg in their last 5, and are now 12-1-1 to the under in their last 14. C. Michigan scored big against bad defenses, and were limited vs good defenses, and look for that to continue here. Mountain West Bowl teams are 36-19 to the under when the total is less than 58, as well as being 21-4 to the under when posted as a -7 or less favorite. Make the play on the under.

There is probably no better story in NCAAF this season than UAB. The Blazers put an end to their football program after the 2014 season, but started it up again this season. They were projected for 2.5 wins, and finished with 8. This team has over-achieved all season, and have a chance to win the school's first Bowl game. The Blazers come in owning 4 SU wins as a dog of an average of +8 points per game. Ohio, U. is a well coached team under Frank Solich, but he has not had much success in Bowl games, at just 2-8 SU in his last 10, dropping 3 of 5 SU as a favorite. The Bobcats dropped their last 2 games of the season after upseting Toledo, ad will have a chore filling holes in their defensive line, as 3 starters are out. They will also be missing their top RB in A.J. Ouellette, who has been downgraded to doubtful. Make the play on UAB.

ST.PETERSBURG BOWL - Tropicana Field - St.Petersburg, FL

The Temple Owls will take on the Florida International Panthers tonight in the St. Petersburg Bowl. I'm not sure what Temple has done this season to have them posted as a TD favorite, or what Florida International hasn't done. Temple barely made it here at 6-6, and their 6 wins came at the hands of opponents that combined to finish the season with 19 total wins. Translation: No wins vs a winning team. Temple changed QB's to better results, but deceptive at the same time because they beat no one of significance. Florida International is in Miami, or about 250 miles from St. Petersburg, so this will be a defacto home game for the Panthers as well. The Panthers were 8-4 on the season, and have a much better QB, and with 19 seiors on this team, they will be playing hard. Temple is off a couple of big seasons, and playing FIU in a Bowl game is not exactly motivational. last night we watched a C-USA team beat a pretty good AAC team 52-10. Since the AAC was formed, its teams that made a Bowl game are 7-16 SU/9-14 ATS, and 0-5 SU vs C-USA. AAC Bowl teams with 8 wins or less are 1-8 SU in Bowl games, 3-6 ATS. FIU fits a Bowl situation that is 55-25 ATS here as well. Make the play on FIU.

The 1st ever DXL Frisco Bowl will put the 7-5 LA Tech Bull Dogs vs the SMU Mustangs. This is an interesting match up, simply because newly hired SMU Head Coach Sonny Dykes was the coach at LA Tech from 2010-12, before taking the job at Cal. Dykes was hired just 9 days ago, and will coach this game, so his `air raid` offense may add a few wrinkles to the SMU attack, but for the most part left-over assistants will be doing most of the play calling. Most gamblers prefer the over, but do get a bit edgy when the number exceeds 70, as it seems like such a high mountain to climb. The fact is Bowl totals of greater than 66 have gone 31-13 O/U (23-8 O/U in December Bowls) since 2010, and with a Bowl favorite of -7.5 or less we get 23-6 O/U. (17-4 O/U in December Bowls). The 2009 cut-off is not arbitrary, it is the point in time, when NCAA Football scoring was taking off. The period from 2006-09 saw the average NCAAF game have a posted total of 51.9, and since then, 56.1. This has allowed high totals have a better chance of connecting. SMU averaged 40.2ppg this year, but allowed 35.5ppg, and playing games vs a defense allowing greater than 25ppg, their games combined for 79.2ppg. LA Tech averaged 51.5ppg in Dykes last season, and 11 of his last 12 there went over the total. His team averaged 34.1ppg at Cal, with 10 of his last 14 there over the total. His final year at both schools (when he had all his own players), saw the total go 21-5 O/U. LA Tech this season faced 2 teams that averaged 38ppg and allowed an average of 52.5ppg, while their offense against teas that allowed more than 30ppg averaged 32.2ppg. Make te play over the total in this one.

If you watched the MNF game between the Patriots and the Dolphins, Miami looked like a playoff caliber team, and New England looked like a poor team. Well, there must be something in the water in Miami, as the Dolphins have beaten New England here 12 of the last 20 times, including 4 of the last 5. As Belichick would say, onto Pittsburgh. Unlike Miami, the Pats are 6-2 SU in their last 8 trips to the Steel City, and 6-2 ATS as well. It is never easy playing against the patriots to begin with, but facing them off a loss, is quite frankly impossible. Since the start of the 2002 season, when the Brady & Belichick combo was getting entrenched here, the Pats are 35-13-1 ATS off a loss, and a ridiculous 21-0-1 ATS off a loss facing an elite team (better than .570), if they were less than a -7 point favorite. The Pats will show up big here, knowing the loss to Miami is meaningless if they win here, as they will once again control their own destiny for home field advantage through the AFC Championship game. Brady is 8-2 in his last 10 vs Pittsburgh with a 117.2 passer rating, burning the not-so-steel curtain for 26 TD passes and just 3 INT's, and 32ppg. My NFL December Game of the Year is on New England.

The Minnesota Vikings knew their defense was going to be good, but the surprise has been the offense. The offense has averaged just shy of 24ppg on the season. Case Keenum has had a lot to do with that as he has had a breakout season. The defense has allowed less than 20 points in 9 of their 13 games. Cincinnati has to be out of will. The Bengals were a playoff team the last 5 years, but you could see the will was gone after blowing a lead vs Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago, as they were a no show at Chicago last week in a 33-7 loss. The Vikings are a cover machine at home, where they are now 33-13 ATS in their last 46, and overall this team is 40-15-1 ATS in their last 56 games. They are also in a great situation as from week 13 on, a home favorite of -10 to -17, facing a team with a winning percentage of less than .630 are 125-70-2 in the last 197 instances. Make the play on Minnesota.

If you look at this game on paper the Giants should get blown out. The fact is this is an ultra strong NFL Contrarian Special. Conference games from week 6 out, since the start of the 2000 season, that feature a team with a scoring margin edge of 20 or more (Phila 11.8/NYG -9.4 = 21.2), to a line of less than -14.5 and their opponent is on 6 days rest or less, are 7-51 ATS. Play on the NY Giants.

The San Diego Chargers have completely turned their season around. After a punishing 0-4 start, they have been 7-2 over their last 9 games, and have a big division game in Kansas City this week. The Chargers have now become an over-valued team, and have no business being a slight favorite in Kansas City. Kansas City has become under-valued, as they started 5-0 but have been 2-6 since. It has been a simple equation for the Chargers, turn the opponent over and win, don't do it and lose. The Chargers are 0-4 SU/ATS when they force 0 turnovers and 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when they force at least 1, lately they are 17-4 on turnovers, which likely won't continue. The Chiefs don't turn the ball over much (7 clean games, 4 games with just 1). Kansas City is also a great team in the role of a home dog logging a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark as a home dog from week 6 on if both they and their opponent are off a win. The Chargers fit the profile of a team in a bad situation, as from game 8 on a team that is on the road and 1 game over .500 against a .500 or better team are just 62-100 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn't the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average +5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from +2 to +10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn't very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn`t the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average 5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from 2 to 10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn`t very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The 10-2 Troy Trojans will take on the 9-4 N. Texas Mean Green in New Orleans. troy is getting a lot of support, ass they had one of the biggest upsets of the year, when they went don to baton Rouge, and beat LSU 24-21. Troy has had their best team's in their FBS history over the last 2 years, combining for a 20-5 SU record. The offense remains explosive, but not quite up to the standard set a year ago, but still 30ppg. Where this team has excelled is on defense where they have not allowed any team to top 25 points against them the only team in the country to have done that this season. N. Texas may look like a defensive slouch on the season allowing 33.8ppg, but their 4 losses, all to teams they were huge under dogs against, FAU (2), SMU, and Iowa, they allowed 48.8ppg against. Their other more competitive games saw them allow a more respectable 24.3ppg. North Texas will play this game without star running back Jeffrey Wilson, while Troy's win over Arkansas St. in the Conference Title game saw them lose 6 players, and 3 of them are WR's. Overall, C-USA totals have been big money in Bowl games, to the under, when the total is less than 64, where they are 3-22 O/U since 1998. Make the play on the under.