It will be harder to find a game between two teams that started strong and have fallen apart. Syracuse appeared to be on their way to an elite season. The Orange came out of the gate 6-0, but have fallen on hard times losing 4 straight. Wake Forest held a #10 ranking at one point, but they are just 2-4 in the ACC and have lost 3 straight, so something has to give here. This is a great match up for Syracuse. Wake loves to throw the ball, and has struggled running it all season. Their elite passing offense is going to face an elite Syracuse pass defense, that ranks #14 in the country. Cuse allows just 168 yards per game in the air, and turns teams over consistently well. Wake has turned the ball over 14 times in their last 4 games. It is hard to trust either team, but the line appears to be way off, and Wake Forest fits a situation that is 228-307-14 ATS with a subset of 90-143-4 ATS. I like Syracuse in this one.

Tennessee has it all over SC, and should win and cover this game rather comfortably. Huge road favorites are 191-154-2 ATS from greater than -21 as long as they have a winning percentage of .900 or better. Make the play on Tennessee.

This game has the lowest posted total so far of this season. It is rare to see a college football game with a total this low. The games always look like they will be 13-10, or 17-13, etc. The fact is when a college football game has a posted total of fewer than 35 points, the games have played over the total to a 19-3 ATS mark, in favor of over the total. I'll play this one over the total.

This game fits my top long-term total situation which is 616-367-20 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

The Florida St. season can be summed up by 3 consecutive losses to Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson. All the games were close and Florida St. out-gained all 3 teams by a combined 1240-1091. Florida St. is one of the top teams in the country in yards per play margin, and could easily be 9-1 or 10-0 coming into this game. They have been 2.1 yards per play better than their schedule of opponents allow. LA Lafayette has no offense to speak of, and overall they have been even at the line of scrimmage for the season, but when you factor in strength of schedule the edge for Florida St. increases substantially. Florida St. since their 3 losses is 3-0 and has out-scored those 3 opponents 124-22 and neither of their last 2 opponents have gotten in the end-zone. This looks like a 30+ point game to me. Make the play on Florida St.

The Indianapolis Colts fired head coach Frank Reich after the Colts generated just 121 total yards on 51 plays. It was the lowest yards per play generated by any team in the NFL this year. The Colts offense has generated just 9.7ppg in the last 3. New Head Coach Jeff Saturday who will become the first NFL head coach ever that has never coached at the pro or college level. Worse than that he hasn't been with the Colts all season. The Colts are left with a staff where no coach has ever called plays, so a bad offense may be worse. Defensively the Colts allowed New England 26 points, but the Pat's scored a defensive TD, and also scored after a blocked punt game New England a short field TD. New England generated just 203 total yards, so the 26 points was very misleading. Vegas is averaging 10ppg in their last 2 games on an average of 252 total yards per game, and has struggled offensively themselves. Derek Carr has numbers well short of last season, and the Colts can defend very well. I don't see a lot of points being scored in this game, and the Raiders are going to have to score big to get this over, and I don't see it in this match up. Make the play under the total.

I like playing a team that is on the brink. The Browns surely fit the bill at 3-5. A loss here to Miami and the Browns season may be sunk. The Browns defense is finally delivering. The last 2 games vs potent offenses in Baltimore and Cincinnati the Browns defense allowed 254 yards to Baltimore and just 229 to Cincinnati. The Dolphins went 4 straight games not topping the 17 point mark until they scored 66 combined points the last 2 games vs Chicago, and Detroit. Tua Tagovailoa is having a good season, but he took on Baltimore and Buffalo when they had depleted defenses, and has crushed teams with poor pass defenses. The Browns represent a much stiffer challenge. He will be under pressure in this game, and Denzel Ward returns to the secondary for Cleveland this week. This game fits a situation that is 94-57 ATS and I'm making the play on Cleveland.

This game will be played in Germany. Tom Brady has now thrown for 100,000 yards and while he is still a serviceable NFL QB the numbers are eroding. Brady is averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt, by far the lowest in his career, and has just 10 TD passes. The Bucs are averaging just 18ppg, and have not covered any of their last 7 games. Seattle QB Geno Smith has surprised. He has a 107.2 QB rating along with 15 TDs and 4 INTs. The Seattle defense after allowing 34.5ppg over 4 games is now allowing 16.5ppg in their last 4. The Tampa offense can't run the ball, and move the ball slowly in the passing game and find it hard to sustain and finish drives. I like Seattle in this one.

Florida St. lost 3 games in a row and it looked like another tough season. Since that point the light went on for this team and they are playing like a top 10 team. The Noles have won 2 straight games by a combined score of 86-19. Perhps what goes unnoticed because they are 6-3 is that Florida St. ranks 5th in the country in yards per play. They are out-gaining opponents by 2 yards per snap, nd if you do that you win a lot of games. Dino Babers had his team at 6-0, but has lost the magic as the Orange have lost 3 straight. They have been really hurt by injuries, and the line here says it looks like QB Garrett Shrader is going ti miss his 2nd straight game. Syracuse had 9 points and 145 total yards without him last week. The Noles are also in a momentum situation that is 87-36 ATS and I will make the play on Florida St.

This game fits my top total situation which is 613-361-19 ATS. Make the play under the total.

This is an interesting match up. I think there is considerable value here. It starts with the fact that the defensive line coach for Troy is Eric McDaniel. He was a defensive coach at Army prior to coming to Troy, and went up against the triple-option every day, and certainly knows how to stop it. Shiel Wood is the defensive coordinator at Troy. He was the defensive coordinator at Army prior to coming to Troy, and coached at Georgia Tech, and Wofford as well (both option offenses). The Troy defensive coaches have a lot of experience coaching against the triple-option. Troy is a very good defense, and allows just 3.3 yards per carry against them, but the offense is lacking a running game, which is the Army's weakness, as they are better against the pass. Army generated just 7 points and ran 35 times last week vs Air Force for just 78 yards, a team that also runs the option and can defend it. Troy has scored just 16.6ppg in their last 3, and I think both teams are going to be limited in this game. Make the play on the under.

I wasn`t surprised to see an 8-0 Clemson team make the top 4 slots for the playoffs 2 weeks ago. This team is not the same as the Clemson teams we have seen in the past, despite the gaudy record. They were exposed by Notre Dame last week and blown out. The proof is this. Prior to this season Clemson played 22 straight games at home and were posted as a double-digit favorite in all of them. This year they have played 5 home games and have been a double-digit favorite in just 1 of them. Their 4 toughest games vs Wake Forest, Florida St., Notre Dame, and Syracuse saw them go 3-1 but they were actually out-scored in the 4 games. Their last 3 games has seen them out-scored 84-5, allowing 28ppg, and were out-gained in 2 of them. Louisville is 6-3 and has it going with 4 straight wins by a combined score of 140-58, and has played the more difficult schedule. Louisville has out-gained their opponents this season by an average of 75 yards a game, to Clemson`s 71, and out-gaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play to Clemson`s 1.0, and to a slightly stronger schedule. This says Louisville is actually a slightly better team, and the only reason Clemson is favored by a TD is they are Clemson, but not the Clemson we are used to. Make the play on Louisville.

This game fits a situation that is 137-91 ATS and the play is on the over.

The Seattle Seahawks after trading Russell Wilson, were supposed to be in a steep rebuild. That was until Geno Smith took charge of the offense, and has made this Seattle team a bonafide playoff contender. Seattle is 5-3 on the season and Smith has been spectacular. He enters this game with 19 TD passes to just 4 INTs with a passer rating of 103.2. Seattle is averaging 26.2ppg. Arizona is a disappointing 3-5. The Cardinal's defense is allowing 6 yards per play so the Seattle offense should be putting up a lot of points. The Seattle defense is allowing almost 6 yards per play, and Arizona should have no trouble moving the chains. The last 5 seasons has seen a team that is playing to a total of 49.5 or higher and is off a home win of 10 points or more that wins 60-75% of its games has played over the total to a 26-7 ATS mark. Make the play over the total.

This game fits my 2nd strongest total situation that has been 238-157 ATS. Make the play on the over.

The 4-3 LA Chargers will make the cross-country trip to take on the 4-4 Atlanta Falcons. I think the market has caught up to Atlanta. The Falcons opened the season with 6 straight spread wins, but has dropped their last 2. Atlanta is going to run the ball even when they are behind. They are the only team in the NFL that has run more than they passed in every game. That typically means they are averaging fewer yards per play than their opponents, and fewer plays in general (-6 on the season). They are 4-4 but are being out-gained by just shy of 100 yards per game. The Chargers have not fared well stopping the run, and I assume Atlanta will have success running here. The difference is in the passing game where the Chargers throw effectively and often. The difference between the Atlanta run edge and the Chargers passing edge is huge in yards per play for LA. If you are generating  a couple yards per play more than your opponent, and getting significantly more snaps in a addition to that on a yards per point basis the score starts to get away from the running team, even if they have success. I also have 3 significant situations all lining up with LA. My NFL GOY is on the LA Chargers.

This game fits a total situation that is 84-38 ATS and the play is over the total.

The New England Patriots seem to get into a mud sling every week, with sloppy play on both sides. Through 8 games the Patriot's games have seen 32 turnovers, 16 by each side. Indianapolis came into this season thinking they could hand off to Johnathon Taylor and solve their offensive issues. Taylor through 8 games has not topped 80 yards in any of them. Indianapolis has played 7 of their 8 games under the total, with no team in those games topping 24. The Colts have scored more thn 20 points just 1 time all season. This game fits a situatiaon that is 139-94 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game is a weather play as 41 MPH wind gusts are expected in Cincinnati. The wind does not impact the running game of Navy, but it will certainly impact the passing game of Cincinnati. I like Navy in this one.

This game will be played in horrible conditions with a cold rain and winds gusting up to 60 MPH. Illinois is allowing 8.9ppg as it is, and can just stack the box against the run all game. Make the play on the UNDER

This game is a weather play with high winds and rain, and a New Mexico offense that is already severely handicapped. Make the play on the under.

TCU QB Chandler Morris went down 3 weeks ago and the TCU offense has not skipped a beat. The TCU offense is generating 9.7 yards per pass attempt and it will be difficult for Texas Tech to both stop, and keep up with TCU in this game. Texas Tech has a below average offense, and slightly better than average defense, but neither will be enough to allow them to hang with the unbeaten Horned Frogs. TCU also applies to a situation that is 88-49 ATS. Make the play on TCU.

Air Force and Army is always a heated rivalry game among Military schools. This is not a vintage Army running attack and the big rushing yards they have generated has come against Villanova, Colgate, and LA Monroe. The Army is running for just 4.3 yards per carry in other games. These Military games come down to who can stop the run better. The numbers say the better run defense covers better than 65% of the time when the line isn`t huge. Air Force applies to a lot of favorable situations beyond that. Make the play on Air Force.

The Green Bay Packers have lost 3 straight games, and looked like a horrible team in doing so. Aaron Rodgers is having his worst year statistically to this point. The Packers offense is dead, and the defense is starting to crumble as well. Buffalo looks like a Super Bowl team, and a team that has the appearance they could win this game by 20+. I get a feeling you are going to see a different Packer team tonight. History certainly supports those thoughts. Sunday Night Football double-digit dogs are 28-15-1 ATS, as they tend to be inspired by the bright lights. The Packers fit a situation that is in part due to their poor ats record and Buffalo's good ats record. That situation is 88-46-6 ATS, including a perfect 8-0 ATS on Sunday Night Football with 4 outright upsets. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Minnesota Vikings are off to a great start at 5-1. Most will see them as a 3.5 point home favorite against the 3-4 Cardinals, which is barely above standard home field advantage, and look towards the Vikings. The record may say 5-1, but Minnesota is just 2-4 ATS and each of their last 4 games , all wins were by 1 score. The Vikings have played the easiest schedule in the league and despite a 5-1 record and a soft schedule they are -40 yards per game from the line of scrimmage. Arizona is just 3-4 but the 4 losses have come against Kansas City, the LA Rams, Seattle, and Philadelphia. Lost 20-17 to the Eagles and held them to a season low points. All things considered the Cardinals have been the better team and also apply to a situation that is 117-71 ATS. Make the play on Arizona.

The Chicago Bears got their biggest win of the season as they dominated New England. That might work against them in this one. An NFL team that won their last game straight up as a dog of 6 or more, and is a dog of 6 or more in their next game are a woeful 20-52-1 ATS. Huge letdown spot for Chicago. Make the play on Dallas.

All you have to do is see the 5-2 NY Jets are a home dog to the New England Patriots who are 3-4. For many that won't look right. Jets QB Zach Wilson has yet to prove he is an NFL QB. He has a career 70.5 passer rating and sits at 73 thus far this season. His 10 career TDs are fewer than his career INTs at 13. The loss of Brice Hall is substantial as he was carrying the Jet's offense. The Jets also have offensive line issues with several out or playing injured. New England is 30-6 ATS off a loss since the start of 2003 in the regular season to a line that does not exceed -4. (including 3-0 ATS this year). I like the New England Patriots in this one.

The Georgia Bulldogs have been the best team in NCAA Football over their last 26 games where they are 25-1 SU. They will take on Florida in Jacksonville, Fla. Georgia has out-gained opponents 527-247, and their defense has been so good they have run +16 plays a game more than their opponent. They out-gain opponents from both sides of the line of scrimmage by 2.7 yards per play. Florida comes in at 4-3, but the Gators are being out-gained by 6 yards per game. The Bulldogs are 65-10 SU and 45-30 ATS since the start of the 2017 season, allowing 14.8ppg, and in their 25-1 SU current run they allow 9.9ppg. The Bulldogs fit a situation that is 93-31 ATS. Make the play on Georgia.

Illinois has not won 7 games since 2011. They have won 9 games or more just 2 times since 1990. Illinois lost to Indiana 23-20 back in game 2. They gave the game away as they dominated the stats, but 4 turnovers did them in. Since that game they are 5-0 and have allowed 33 total points or 6.6ppg. Illinois has a top 3 defense in the country, and have out-gained opponents 418-225 and is allowing 3.8 yards per play on the season. Nebraska is considered to be strong offensively, but they are out-gaining Illinois by just 6 yards per game. Defensively, Nebraska allows 472 yards per game, or 250 yards more than Illinois. These numbers show a statistical easy double-digit win for Illinois. No team has out-gained Illinois this season, and I don't see that changing here. Make the play on Illinois.

Iowa opened the season with what looked like one of the worst offenses in the country. They were missing their top WR which hampered an already bad offense losing their top weapon. He is back and the offense has improved, but still considerably below average. The Hawkeyes are off 3 consecutive games vs Ohio St., Michigan, and Illinois, the top 3 teams in the Big-10. Michigan and Ohio St. are elite offensive teams, but no other team has scored more than 10 points against them. Northwestern scored 7 points in each of their top 2 games vs Penn St. and Wisconsin, and it is likely they won't get more than that here. Iow is a top 3 defense in the country and a shutout is not out of the question. Make the play on Iowa.

This game fits my best NCAAF total situations which is 601-354-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my best NCAAF total situations which is 601-354-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

UL Lafayette and Southern Miss are both changed teams since the beginning of the season. Southern Miss caught a bad break in game one when they lost starting QB Ty Keyes to a  season ending injury. He has been replaced by the tandem of Wilke and Lange, but each has been a significant drop off from Keyes. UL Lafayette has seen just the opposite take place. Chandler Fields was injured, and the QB duties were taken over by Ben Wooldridge, and the offense has been a lot better. Southern Miss has turned the ball over 17 times on the season, while the aggressive defense of UL Lafayette has forced 17 turnovers of their own. Add it all up and UL Lafayette has emerged the better team and should come out victorius on the road. Make the play on UL Lafayette.

Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones? I don't think it makes much difference. The game plan may be different but each has proven capable of moving the offense for New England. They are separated by 0.2 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots defense has been a lot better than expected. Justin Fields is used carefully and the Bears gain more ground yards than air yards. The Pats will stack the box and it will be a long night for Chicago. The Bears have 2 wins, and one was over San Francisco at home. They were out-gained by 125+ yards, and the game was played in a quagmire. Their only other win was against Houston. The Pats are averaging nearly 30ppg in their last 4, and should get enough points to get separation from a bad Bear's team. The Bear's fit a 58-95 ATS situation. Make the play on New England.

San Francisco has been a tough team to figure out. The 49ers are just 3-3 and the 3 losses have come against Chicago, Denver, and Atlanta. They managed to score a combined 34 points against those 3 teams, so the offense has really struggled. Injuries have played a big role in some of the inconsistencies, but they better be consistent here. The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss. Kansas City is now 10-1 SU when coming off a loss in their last 11, and have scored 20 points or better in all of them, so San Francisco is likely going to have to find some offense to win this one. Kansas City is the better team and the Chiefs thrive off a loss behind Mahomes. This game also fits a situation that is 138-84 ATS. I'll make the play on Kansas City.

This game fits a toatl situation that is 106-67 ATS. The play is on the over.

The NY Giants are a surprising 5-1 on the season. Last week if you look at the box score they were out-gained 406-238. When an NFL team is out-gained by their opponent by 150 or more yards they win 13.7% of the time. So the Giants win was a fluke, and I think the line is being held down by a season full of luck. The Giants rank 27th in yards per play margin despite playing the 26th ranked schedule. Jacksonville is a top 10 team in yards per play, vs a top 12 schedule. All 4 of Jacksonville losses have been by 1 possession. The Giants are a 5-1 team that is consistently losing the battle at the line of scrimmage, as their opponents have out-gained them on the season. I have a betting formula, not a system, that is 206-147-9 ATS that applies to this game. Make the play on Jacksonville.

Atlanta is a surprising 3-3 on the season, while Cincinnati is a disappointing 3-3. This is a good match up for both offenses. The Falcons are limiting the number of passes that Marcus Mariota throws as he has not thrown more than 20 times in any game this season. The Falcons are running the ball as well as any team with 150+ yards in 5 of their 6 contests. The Bengals have become vulnerable to the running game when D.J. Reader went down with an injury (5.6 yards a carry). Burrow led Cincinnati to 30 points last week vs New Orleans and the Falcons are dead last in the league getting pressure. This game also fits a situation that is 87-41 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Detroit Lions games have been exciting to watch. Their games have averaged 62ppg. Dak Prescott will make his return at QB for Dallas and he obviously has a favorable match up. The Cowboy's throw the ball a lot with Prescott so things will certainly open up against the soft Detroit pass defense. If for some reason Prescott isn't completely healthy and clicking, the Lions run defense is the worst in the league. Dallas is one of the top teams in getting pressure, but Goff has been protected by a strong offensive line that ranks 3rd in allowing the least pressure. The game sets up as another high scoring affair for the Lions, who also fit in a situation that is 54-18 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

This game fits one of my strongest total situations that is 226-118 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS and the play is on Tampa Bay.

This game fits a situation that is 38-9 ATS and the play is on the under.

Southern Miss is 3-3 on the season, and turnovers has had a lot to say about their outcomes. Their 3 losses to good teams in Miami, FL, Troy, and Liberty saw them lose the turnover battle 12-6. Their 3 wins they have just 4 total turnovers. Texas St. has a huge win over Appalachian St. as a 19 point under dog but has not done much otherwise with a offense that is well below average. Texas St. has run the ball for 86 yards or fewer in 5 of their 7 games, and they have been out-gained by 5 straight FBS opponents. It's clear that Southern Miss has the advantage in this game on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Southern Miss.

This is strictly a weather play. The weather today in Palo Alto, CA calls for showers, but more importantly sustained winds of 25 MPH with gusts in the 30s. Both teams rely on the passing game which will be slowed by the windy conditions. Make the play on the under.

Oklahoma St. suffered their first loss of the season last week vs TCU. The big concern here is the Cowboy's allowed over 500 yards of offense for the third time this season. Oklahoma St. has now been out-gained by 4 teams on the season (C. Michigan,Baylor,Texas Tech, and TCU). Texas will be the best team they have faced all season, and the Horn's have played a much tougher schedule. This is also a tough spot for Oklahoma St. as a team with a 5-0 record or better off their first loss of the season have gone 157-199-6 ATS at 44.1%. Texas is clearly better than a TD than Oklahoma St. on the road. Make the play on Texas.

Both of these teams average over 40 points per game, so that certainly looks like the over is a good take. However, I think the fact that both these teams are coming off their bye, and 13 days to prepare that changes things, as the defenses have had a lot of time to prepare. Games with both teams coming off a bye with a total of 63 or more points with the home team favored are 3-13-1 O/U. They have failed to go over the total by an average of 11.88ppg. Make the play on the under.

Clemson has a great reputation and as they come into this game at 7-0 it appears to the public that this is like the team's Clemson has fielded prior to last year. It isn't. When Clemson had their ultra good teams they had a better QB and a better defense, and typically out-gained opponents by 3 or more yards per play. This year that number is 1.1 yards per play better. That is a long way from what they used to be when they had a lofty ranking. Syracuse is vastly improved at 5-0. The Cuse has out-gained opponents by 2 yards per game to a schedule of teams that average just about equal to Clemson. This game fits a situation that is 44-24-4 ATS, which is based in part on taking dogs in games between unbeaten teams. Those numbers have been even better recently. Make the play on Syracuse.

The Denver Broncos offense has been awful. Many thought when Russell Wilson came over that the Denver offense would flourish. That has not been the case. The Broncos have scored 16 points or fewer in 4 of their 5 games. The good news is the defense has come to the rescue as the Bronco's defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in 4 of 5 games. Denver has not allowed over 200 passing yards all season and have held 3 opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards. The Chargers are offensive dependent, and I don't see them moving the ball a lot in this game. The Denver offense should be able to generate more points vs a banged up Charger's defense that has allowed 3 straight opponents to average over 400 yards. I like Denver in this one.

These plays are based on some line value and game situations. This one fits a situation that is 131-88 ATS and the play is on Philadelphia.

Looking at the stats for this game Buffalo has certainly out-played Kansas City, but digging deeper makes things look quite different. This will be Pat Mahomes 42nd career start at home. He was favored in all 41 up until this one. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 33-8 SU at home, so giving points to Mahomes at home is not very logical. There is also the Josh Allen numbers. Allen is just 19-16 SU in his 35 road starts. The Chiefs also have revenge from last year's playoff loss to the Bills. Arrowhead Stadium is the loudest stadium in the NFL, and it will be at its loudest for this one. Chiefs, and mMahomes sky high for this one, and you can't measure that in stats. Make the play on Kansas City.

The LA Rams have 20 players on the injury report this week. Their offensive line has taken a huge hit as they have lost almost everyone including a couple of backups. This isn't the Super Bowl team from last year. Matthew Stafford is taking a beating. The Rams offensive line has allowed 84 pressures already which is more than any other team. The Rams have scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their 5 games this season and are 2-3. Carolina has lost games by 2 and 3 points, and are not as bad as their 2-3 record might suggest. They will have to go with PJ Walker in this one so I don't expect a lot of offense from Carolina either. A team that has scored 10 points or less in 2 straight games has occurred 529 times in the NFL and these teams average 18ppg in their next game. I think laying this many points with an offense that is really banged up is way too much. Make the play on Carolina.

This game fits a situation that is 107-56 ATS. The play is under the total.

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-2-1 and they have played one bad game all season, and it was against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts were completely shut down in that game losing 24-0. An NFL team that was shutout in their last meeting against a team covers 54.4% of all games when that opponent scored 24 or more points. That is a good starting point as I think these teams bring a little extra to these games. Turnovers have cost the Colts more than anything else, so it kind of makes them look like an inferior team. I would rank these teams pretty close to even from the line of scrimmage, but with a mental edge for revenge and home field, I like Indianapolis.

This game fits a total situation hat is 77-36 ATS and the play is on the under.

These plays are based on some line value and game situations. This one fits a situation that is 58-21 ATS and the play is on Baltimore.

This game fits a situation that has to do with certain teams off a shutout win and is 20-1 ATS. The play is on New England.

This total caps out at 60.5 and a situation that is 77-41 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game fits my strongest situation in any sport which is 501-260-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game caps out at Washington -20.5 and fits a situation that is 87-56 ATS. The play is on Washington.

James Madison was one of the top FCS teams in the country. They made the jump to the FBS this season, and have started the season 5-0. They own a win over Appalachian St. who is a very solid team. Georgia Southern mad a huge change this season as they moved from the triple-option to a fast paced attack. That is going to be tough for them in this game because James Madison plays uptempo as well. Georgia Southern averages 80 plays a game and James Madison 77. The reason that is a problem for Georgia Southern is James Madison averages 2.3 yards per play than their opponents on the season and Georgia Southern is at a negative 0.2. James Madison also allows 1.6 yards per rushing attempt and there is a good chance they make Georgia Southern a one-dimensional team. I like James Madison big here.

Everywhere I look I see big names making big bets on Tennessee at home vs Alabama. I won't be with them or plenty of reasons. Nick Saban would not disclose if Bryce Young would be at QB for this game. I have a sneaky suspicion he will play. If he does not play I still like Alabama. Everyone is looking at last game with Jalen Milroe at QB. He threw just 19 times for 119 yards, but did throw 3 TD passes to 1 INT. If he plays, he will do more. Alabama set this game up for bettors jumping on Tennessee. They barely got past Texas A&M 24-20, and Tennessee is better. Alabama out-gained A&M, they beat them at the line of scrimmage 5.7 yards a play to 4.5. Alabama fumbled 3 times and lost them all. Tennessee has lost 15 straight games to Alabama by an average of 26ppg. Alabama is gaining 7 yards per carry against team's that average allowing 4.4. The Tide is also winning the line of scrimmage by averaging 7.5 yards per play and allowing 3.8. Tennessee is good but not in that ball-park. Alabama has also played a more difficult schedule. Alabama had a turnover margin of -3 against Texas A&M. NCAA teams that have a -3 turnover margin are 231-1335 SU, so they have to be pretty good to overcome what 85% of all teams fail at. The 4 turnovers by Alabama was just the 4th time they have had that many in the Saban era, and they won all 4. I like Alabama in this one.

NC State is 5-1 but they are also 3 points from being 3-3. They own a 1 point win vs East Carolina and a 2 point win over Florida St, and they were out-gained in both games. The only FBS team they have out-gained is Connecticut. That isn't the marker for a 5-1 team. The top 2 teams on their schedule to this point Clemson, and Florida St. gained 6 yards a carry against them. Syracuse is not only off a bye but their game before their bye was a 59-0 win over Wagner, so this is a fresh healthy team. The same can't be said with NC State who has struggled offensively all season, and now QB Devin Leary. None of this is a good situation on the road at the Carrier Dome which is a home field advantage again for this 5-0 Syracuse team. Make the play on Syracuse.

This game fits a situation that is 107-68 ATS and the play is on TCU

This game caps out to a line of -27 and it also fits a situation that is 55-17 ATS. The play is on UAB.

This is a weather play with winds enough to limit the passing game. The play is on the under.

This game caps out with Ohio, U. the favorite by -3.5, and a situation that is 37-6 ATS. The play is on Ohio, U.

This is a huge game between a pair of unbeaten teams. The winner will come out of this as a playoff looking team while the loser will at least temporarily fall out of the conversation. Penn St. Coach James Franklin has a big piano on his back. He is 0-8 at Penn St. since he arrived when playing on the road vs a top 5 team. Penn St. overall has been even worse as the Nitany Lions are 0-15 straight up on the road vs a top 5 team. Penn St. has a potent running game thanks to freshman Nicholas Singleton who is averaging 7.3 yards per carry. This is a defense that is better than any Penn St. will have seen this year and overall Michigan has some crazy good numbers as they average 3 yards per play better than their opponent, while Penn St. is at 1.4. That is a huge difference, and at the same time Michigan will have the better QB in this game and also playing at home. I look for a solid home win by Michigan.

This game caps out to -20.5 so significant line value as well as a situation that is 138-88 ATS. The play is on Texas.

This game caps out to +13.5 and it also fits a situation that is 207-157 ATS. The play is on Auburn.

The Dallas Cowboys have been riding their back up QB Cooper Rush and he has really been impressive. The Rams on the other hand are in trouble. It isn't so much about Matthew Stafford as it is about the offensive line. The Rams offensive front is on life support and they allowed 23 pressures last week vs San Francisco. The Rams are 2nd from the bottom in the league in pass blocking efficiency and Dallas is getting pressure on 42% of all snaps. I don't see the Rams offense giving Stafford enough pressure, and this game appears to look very similar to last week for the Rams and that didn't work out very well. Make the play on Dallas.

Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both 2-2 on the season. That is where the similarities end. The Bucs have beaten the Falcons 3 straight times by margins of 17, 23, and 13. This is a game of mismatches and most of them go against Atlanta. The Bucs will dominant both sides of the line of scrimmage. Bucs are going to fired up after their disaster last week vs Pat Mahomes. Lay the bundle and play Tampa Bay.

Cleveland has gotten the best running game in the NFL. That means they are going to give the LA Chargers fits as the Chargers are horrible against the run. Cleveland has gained 171 or more yards rushing in every game this season, and this looks like it will add to that. The Chargers have a ton of injuries to some key players and this is not a good spot for them traveling to the Eastern time zone with a wounded team. Small home dogs with a good offense excel in the NFL. A home dog of 3.5 points or fewer that averages 360 or more yards per game are 126-90-6 ATS. I like Cleveland in this one.

Most bettors do not like to lay a lot of points. I never base a pick on the line, but the match up and history. The huge home favorites in the NFL have been cash cows. NFL home favorites of 11 or more points are 78-43-5 ATS, including 41-19-1 ATS if the home favorite has a winning percentage of .700 or better. Make the play on Buffalo.

Geno Smith is playing better than he has ever. Despite his efforts and the above average Seattle offense, the Seahawks defense has been brutally bad. Jameis Winston is not far behind at 7.5 yards per pass attempt but the Saints are strong defensively. Some of what Smith is doing is against bad defenses, but in 2 games vs a good defense the Seahawks have scored 17 and 7 points. The Saints are also in a great spot. A 1-3 NFL team facing an opponent off a win and as long as they are not a dog of 9 or more points have gone 64-29-3 ATS. Make the play on New Orleans.

Kent St. heads to Miami for a conference game with both teams off to a 2-3 start. Kent St. has played a strong schedule facing Washington, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Kent St. scored 20 on Washington and 22 on Georgia. The offense scored just 31 points last game, but that is very misleading as the Golden Flashes put up 737 yards of offense. Miami, O. is going to score in this game as the Kent St. defense is not that good. This game fits a situation that is 81-48 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

UCLA is off to a 5-0 start to the season. They played their best opponent last week vs Washington and handed the Huskies their first loss of the season. It was 2 Washington turnovers that decided the game which ended in a one possession margin. While that is their biggest win, the Bruin`s are 5-0 to a schedule that ranks number 132 in the country so they haven`t exactly beaten good teams. Utah opened with a heart breaker in the swamp at Florida. They lost 29-26 but have won 4 straight. They are out-gaining opponents by more than 230 yards a game and out-scoring them by 24. They are catching UCLA off their biggest game this season to date, and may catch them at the right time. Utah has owned UCLA winning and covering the last 5 meetings. Utah has out-scored UCLA by 1135 total points in the last 5 meetings.I like Utah in this one.

The records of these teams coming into this game has this line super-inflated. There is no way Oklahoma St. is almost 10 points better than Texas Tech. Tech has played a significantly stronger schedule and is 3-2. Their 4 games vs FBS opponents show the Red Raiders have out-gained every one of them. They were -3 in turnovers vs NC State, and Kansas St. Oklahoma St. has been a breakeven team offense vs defense. They were out-gained by C. Michigan, and Baylor. he numbers in this game suggest a much lower line, but this game is being driven by national rankings, home field, and very misguided stats. I think Texas Tech has a shot at the straight up win, and I'll take the points and play on Texas Tech.

Virginia Tech has a very poor offense and are averaging just 18.2ppg, and just 16ppg in their 4 games vs FBS opponents. Pittsburgh is 3-2 and has covered just 1 game all season. The situations for this game are clearly in favor of Virginia teach. Conference road dogs of 6.5 or more points to a low total of 46 or fewer points are 261-155-15 ATS. Many will believe Pittsburgh will be geared up to erase their painful loss to Georgia Tech last week as a 21.5 point favorite, but a team off a loss as a -17 point favorite or higher has been 83-112-6 ATS. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

This game is from my all-time best situation for totals and is now 496-254-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

I'm not sure what has happened in Colorado in terms of football. Colorado St. and Colorado are a combined 0-9 and both have been out-scored by over 30ppg. Colorado St. has seen the top 2 receivers leave the team, and now QB Clay Millen is likely out as well. The Colorado St. offensive line is surrendering 6 sacks per game, and now have an inexperienced QB for this one. Nevada has an even worse offense at 4.1 yards per play on the season, which is almost 2 yards worse than the average of the defenses they have faced. Colorado St. despite allowing 41 points per game has actually been even at the line of scrimmage. I don't see a lot of points in this one and will make the play on the under.

 UCF is the team carrying the reputation in this game, but despite a 3-1 record I think SMU is better on both sides of the ball. UCF generated 600 yards vs South Carolina St., and 653 against FAU. That makes the offense look way better than it is. The 2 better teams they faced saw them gain just 339 vs Louisville, and 333 vs Georgia Tech. SMU has played 2 teams better than UCF and lost by 1 possession or less in both. The Mustangs gained 476 yards vs TCU and 520 vs Maryland. The numbers show an edge here to SMU on both sides of the ball when adjusting for strength of schedule and input separating cupcakes vs legit teams. I think we have the wrong team getting points here, and I will make the play on SMU.

The New England Patriots took a blow when Mac Jones went down with a shoulder injury. I think back to last year when Bill Belichick took his team to Buffalo and played the game in high winds. His game plan was to run the ball on every down, and the Pats ended up throwing 3 passes in the game for an upset win in Buffalo. Maybe the strategy won't be as extreme here, but he knows he is facing a future HOF QB in Aaron Rodgers, and he is likely going to take the air out of the ball and run often. Green Bay is considered an offensive power with Rodgers but with no true go to guy the Packers offense has struggled to 16ppg. I see a defensive struggle in this one and will make the play under the total.

Buffalo heads to Baltimore today with redemption in mind. They lost to Miami last week 21-19 but the stats presented a different story. Buffalo may have lost but the stats show they out-gained Mimai 497-212. The perspective on that shows an NFL team that out-gains their opponent by 275 or more yards are 191-8 SU in the NFL. Buffalo remains the best team in the NFL so far, and I would expect they come out blazing in this one off a misleading loss. The Ravens own a loss to Miami also but the difference was they gave up 547 yards to the Dolphins. This isn't the Baltimore defense of recent years and the Buffalo defense has enough to slow the Ravens offense. I like Buffalo in this one.

Both Tennessee and Indianapolis saved their season last week. The Titans slipped past Las Vegas 24-22, while the Colts squeaked past Kansas City 20-17. They are both still in a must win situation as we head to week 4. Tennessee owns a win vs the only NFL team without a win and they have been out-gained by all 3 opponents on the season. Indianapolis is well positioned to slow the Titans running attack as they are allowing just 77 rushing yards per game. Recently the Titans have played well against the Colts but they remain 12-28 SU against Indianapolis in the last 40 meetings. Bigger than those numbers is a situation that is 77-34 ATS that favors the Colts in this one. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Cleveland Browns have gotten strong QB play out of Jacoby Brissett. He is doing just enough for the Cleveland ground game to control games. Brissett has 4 TD passes to just 1 INT. The Atlanta offense has been equally good behind Marcus Mariota, but the similarities change from there. They are getting ripped on the ground and through the air. The net per play for the Falcons has been negative yards per play. Cleveland should be able to run the ball and keep the worst part of the Atlanta team, their defense, on the field. The Browns are in a highly favorable 207-138 ATS situation as well. Make the play on Cleveland.

This game fits one of my strongest NFL total situations. This game applies to a total situation that is 68-16 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

Georgia Tech is 1-3 and has of yet beaten an FBS team where they are 0-3. The offense in their 3 games vs FBS opponents is scoring an average of 6.7ppg. It is unlikely they find answers against this Pitt teams that averages out better defensively than the 3 opponents Georgia Tech has played. That would mean Pitt would have to do some heavy lifting on offense, but Tech is an above average defense that should keep Pitt from rolling up a big score. Throw in a situation that is 77-45 ATS to the under and this is a rather strong play. Make the play on the under.

The Cincinnati offense has looked pretty good early on as they are off to a 3-1 start. They have been guilty of turning the ball over too much with 7 turnovers in their 4 games. Where this team doesn't resemble last year's team is on defense. They returned just 5 starters but has still done a reasonable job. Tulsa since the 2019 season has thrived in the role of an under dog as the Golden Hurricane are 13-2 ATS in 15 games. The two games they failed to cover were by a combined 3 points! They have faced Cincinnati as a dog 3 times over the period and has covered all 3 by a combined 30 points. Make the play on Tulsa.

Mack Brown has really cranked up the offense since he arrived at North Carolina. The Tar Heels are putting up over 500 yards per game. The problem has been the defense is allowing over 500 yards as well. The Hokies offense is brutally bad, but it will look a lot better this week vs North Carolina who can't stop anyone including Florida A&M who scored 24. Virginia Tech may not only have a lot more offense here, but they have a complete defense capable of keeping North Carolina from running away. North Carolina has 2 wins vs FBS opponents by a total of 9 points, and they gave up 89 points in the two games. I don't see them pulling away from Virginia Tech here, and the Hokies apply to a 155-92 ATS situation as well. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Illinois is just 3 points from being 4-0 and they will head to Wisconsin for a big test. Illinois has really stepped things up on defense allowing just 8ppg. Illinois is allowing just 3.9 yards per play so far. Wisconsin has good looking offensive numbers, but that was due to games vs FCS Illinois St., and New Mexico St. The Badgers numbers vs Ohio St., and Washington St. don't look nearly as impressive. This also isn't the killer defense that we have seen from Wisconsin in recent years, and I think getting a full touchdown with Illinois is showing some significant value. Make the play on Illinois.

Both Denver and San Francisco have played 2 games under the total. They have both showed some strong defense and at the same time neither offense has looked very impressive. Their games have combined to average about 40 total points. This game features Denver at home and early in the season. Looking at all Denver home games through week3 the over covers 61.1% of all games. I think a good part of that is defenses are in full game shape early in the season and the high altitude makes that worse. I expect a lot more offense in this one. Make the play over the total.

The Detroit Lions have been bad for a long time. They seemed to be short on both sides of the ball, but through 2 games and a 1-1 record the Lions offense has looked as good as anyone, while the defense has been average. Minnesota has been below average offensively and defensively. The Vikings just surrendered nearly 500 yards to Philadelphia and ran the ball just 11 times. Detroit has a decent pass rush, and I think they will be disruptive here. Goff has outplayed Cousins through 2 games, and that may continue here. Detroit broke an 8 game losing streak to Minnesota last year, and I think this is too many points in a division game that looks a lot closer to me. Make the play on Detroit.

This is a season saving game for one of these teams. If a team starts 0-3 the chances of making the playoffs is really low. Both these teams made the playoffs last year, so this is a huge game for both teams. Ryan Tannehill has seen his passing numbers plunge without AJ Brown. That goes back before he was signed by the Eagles. He averaged fewer than 5 and a half yards per pass without Brown, and so far this season he has been under 5. He also lost LT Taylor Lewan. The Tennessee running game has been stopped. Without the offensive line performing at a modest level, Henry can find no running room. The Tennessee defense has been very poor. The Titans are a negative -2 yards per play in terms of what the defense allows and the offense produces. Las Vegas is a net positive in that regard, and I think Davante Adams is in for a big day here. Vegas opened up as a dog, but are rightfully posted as the favorite as they are significantly better on both sides of the ball.

This game fits a situation that is 172-117 ATS to the under, and I like the fact that both teams have their season on the line which usually means intense battles at the line of scrimmage. Make the play under the total.

Nobody wants a part of the Colts right now. They tied Houston and were shutout by Jacksonville, and now they have to deal with Pat Mahomes. The over-reaction of NFL bettors regarding a team that was shutout last week is substantial and line influencing. Since the 2014 season a team off a shutout is 29-13-2 ATS. That goes to 10-1-1 ATS if the line is fewer than 9 points. Looks ugly, but the NFL better bets usually do look ugly. Make the play on Indianapolis.

This game fits a total situation that is 52-13 ATS and the play is on the over.

The Oregon Ducks opened the season ranked as the #11 team in the country. They had a severe test vs Georgia and failed miserably. They managed just 3 points against a strong Georgia defense and now they face another strong defense in Washington St. Washington St. is allowing 12.7ppg and held a really good Wisconsin team to 14 points. This game also fits a situation that is 117-58 ATS. Make the play on Washington St

I don't thinks anyone saw this coming. Duke heads to Kansas who is also 3-0. The winner of this game is going to be getting attention at 4-0. Kansas has beaten Houston and West Virginia on the road in consecutive weeks as a double-digit dog in both. There is some regression value here playing against Kansas. Kansas is converting nearly 70% of 3rd downs, and they are averaging a near perfect 6.3ppg in red zone possessions. Those numbers are unsustainable. Kansas also won by 31 total points vs Houston and West Virginia, but the Jayhawks were out-gained 947-860. The defense is as awful as the offense is good, and the offense right now is very good, but also a product of everything going perfect. The Duke offense is legit. They have generated 1,381 yards of offense themselves. Duke can match the Kansas offense, and the defense is better. I would not be surprised if Duke wins this game outright, so I will certainly take the points and make the play on Duke.

Matt Campbell has changed the culture at Iowa St. He has recruited very well and the team depth has changed dramatically since he took over as well as the quality of talent. He lost 4 year starting QB Brock Purdy, the best RB in school history, returned just 5 on offense and 3 on defense and he is 3-0. Baylor has a 2-1 record and the 2 wins are vs horrible teams where they were favored by an average of 36 points per game. Iowa St already has a signature win over Iowa on the road. They held the Hawkeyes to 150 total yards and 7 points. The aggressive defense has forced at least 2 turnovers in every game and averages 2.7 a contest. I like Iowa St.