20* Vikings/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -3

The 49ers had a team meeting after their terrible loss to Colt McCoy and the Cardinals.  They came back and throttled the Rams 31-10 at home while holding them to just 278 total yards.  Then they made that win count by going on the road and dominating the Jaguars 30-10 and holding them to just 200 total yards.  Now the 49ers are starting to play like the team everyone thought they'd be coming into the season.  

But we continue getting them at a discount because of their 5-5 record.  Their numbers are elite.  They average 360 yards per game on offense and have been even better when Jimmy G and George Kittle are healthy, which both are now.  And they have one of the best defenses in the NFL at 318 yards per game allowed.  They are outgaining opponents by over 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

Minnesota is also 5-5 but doesn't have as good of numbers.  The Vikings only outgain opponents by 8 yards per game and actually get outgained by 0.2 yards per play on the season.  And I think it's a terrible spot for the Vikings.  They are coming off a huge last-second win over their biggest rivals in the Green Bay Packers.  And that's a banged-up Packers team at that and they took advantage.  Now they have to travel clear out to the West Coast.  There's no way they'll be as motivated for this game as they were for the Packers, and I expect them to fall flat here.

Minnesota is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games off an upset win as a home underdog.  The Vikings are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games following a win by 3 points or less.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the home team winning all four games by 8 points or more.  I think we see the 49ers continue playing their best football of the season and win this game by more than a field goal over the Vikings.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3

Death, taxes and Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog.  Bridgewater is 25-9 ATS as an underdog in his career as a starting quarterback.  And I think we are getting tremendous value on the Broncos this week as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Broncos sit at 5-5 and ready to try and make a run at the playoffs here down the stretch.  They come in off their bye week, so they will be fresh and have had two weeks to prepare for Justin Herbert and company.  It should be a great atmosphere for the Broncos, and I fully expect them to win this game outright thanks to their rest and preparation advantage.

The Chargers will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and all five games went down to the wire decided by 7 points or less.  That includes their crazy 41-37 win over the Steelers last week in which they blew a big lead and needed some late heroics from Justin Herbert to get the victory.  I expect them to still be feeling the after-effects of all these close games and especially that tiring shootout last week on Sunday Night Football.

The key matchup here is that the Broncos will be able to run the football at will on the Chargers and control the game with time off possession.  They are a solid running team averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and they'll be up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  The Chargers allow 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.

Denver is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games following a bye week.  Los Angeles is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Chargers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 November games.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +4

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But those three wins came against the Lions, Broncos and Saints.  And we saw how bad the Saints looked against the Bills on Thursday as they are missing several key players, as were the Broncos when they played them.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Giants after they were waxed 30-10 by the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs on Monday Night Football.  That was a pissed off Bucs team coming off two straight losses, so they caught them at a bad time.  

The Giants were playing well prior to that defeat, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games.  They upset the Panthers 25-3 at home, only lost by 3 to the Chiefs as 10.5-point road dogs, and upset the Raiders 23-16 at home.  They had a bye after that game against Las Vegas, so they should still be fresh even though they are on a short week here after playing on Monday.

The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in.  The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) after winning two of its last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 73-31 (70.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +2.5

The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.

The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  And last week they beat the Jets 24-17.

Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score.  He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.  

Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward, especially with three straight home games against suspect competition coming up with a chance to get back to .500.  This team believes right now, and that is a big thing as we head down the stretch run of the season.

The Panthers continue to be overvalued from their blowout win at Arizona two weeks ago in Cam Newton's return.  Newton got the nod last week and did not play well, losing 21-27 at home to Washington as 3-point favorites.  Now they are favored against on the road here, and I just don't trust Newton to be able to beat Miami's blitz-happy defense with his arm.  We saw what they did to Lamar Jackson two weeks ago.  The formula will be the same here against Newton and the Panthers.

Carolina is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite.  The Panthers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* Bucs/Colts Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis +3

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming in overtime to Baltimore and Tennessee.  Carson Wentz has not thrown an interception in eight of his last nine games.  And the Colts have a great defense and running game.  They are definitely one of the biggest sleepers in the NFL right now.

That showed last week in their 41-15 win at Buffalo behind five touchdowns from arguably the best RB in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor.  They could have a letdown, but I don't think so considering they still have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs as they sit at just 6-5 on the season.  And they have the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs coming to town, so they are almost assuredly not going to let up.

I just don't think Tampa Bay can be trusted on the road, either.  The Bucs are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the road this season.  Their two wins came by 2 points over the Patriots and 6 over the Eagles.  They lost at the Rams by 10, were upset at New Orleans by 9 and also upset as a double-digit favorite at Washington by 10.  This might be their toughest road test of the season.

Plus, the Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  They could be without their best run stuffer in defensive tackle Vita Vea, who sat out last game.  They have injuries in the secondary and on offense that are concerning.  And I just think they are overvalued after beating the lowly Giants Monday night.

The Colts are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Indianapolis.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +13.5

Syracuse is 5-6 this season and needs one more win to get bowl eligible.  It's clear we will get their 'A' game Saturday as they will be max motivated to get to a bowl.  It will be a night game and a tremendous atmosphere with home-field advantage worth more than on any other normal week.

I question how motivated Pittsburgh will be for this one.  In fact, I expect something less than their 'A' game for sure, which is going to make it hard for them to win this game by two touchdowns or more to beat us.

The Panthers just clinched the Coastal Division title with their 48-38 win over Virginia last week.  They will be looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game next week, and they won't be fully focused on Syracuse.  They will be more worried about trying to keep everyone healthy for next week to try and win the ACC title.

Syracuse is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two straight conference losses where they allowed 31 points or more.  The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Their three home losses this season were all close by 3 to Clemson, by 3 to Wake Forest and by 10 to Rutgers.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Syracuse) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Syracuse Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7

Minnesota and Wisconsin match up very well.  They are two physical teams that run the football and rely on defense.  That is evident by this very low 39-point total.  So getting 7 points in what is expected to be a defensive battle is a very nice value here with the Gophers at home Saturday.

Minnesota just outgained Indiana by 173 yards in a 35-14 road win and outgained Iowa by 132 yards in a losing effort on the road in a game they deserved to win the week prior.  In fact, the Gophers have now outgained six straight Big Ten opponents coming into this game.  They are playing well enough to knock off Wisconsin, and stay within a score of them at the very least.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Badgers off seven consecutive victories.  But it's worth noting they were outgained by Nebraska by 54 yards last week in a fortunate 35-28 victory that kept their title hopes alive.  They should be favored in this game, but by 3 and not 7 points in my opinion.

Last year, Minnesota only lost 17-20 (OT) as a 10.5-point road dog at Wisconsin.  The Gophers outgained the Badgers in that game.  They get them at home this time around and will be revenge-minded.

Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games.  The Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven eight games as underdogs.  The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a game where it committed zero turnovers.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona +20.5

It's a terrible spot for Arizona State this week.  They just lost out on their chance to win the Pac-12 title with their 10-24 road loss as 3-point favorites at Oregon State last week.  And now they won't be that motivated to face a 1-10 Arizona team this week.  Not only do they have to win, they have to win by three touchdowns or more to beat us.

Arizona State managed just 10 points and 266 total yards against a bad Oregon State defense last week.  Injuries are mounting up on offense for the Sun Devils with two receivers and two tight ends out.  QB Jayden Daniels is not playing well with an 8-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and his job will be even tougher this week.

The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-10 SU this season.  But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch.  They will be max motivated playing their biggest rivals here to close out the season as this game means more to them than it does the Sun Devils.

Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs.  And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference.  If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season.

In fact, the Wildcats haven't been outgained by more than 139 yards in any of their last nine games.  In their last nine games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 12.2 yards per game on average.  They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before.

Arizona State is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite.  Take Arizona Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa +6.5

Tulsa has clawed its way back to 5-6 by winning four of its last six games to get within one more victory of bowl eligibility.  The two losses came by 3 to Navy and by 8 to Cincinnati on the road in a game they nearly won outright.  They will capitalize on this opportunity to make a bowl by winning this game outright at SMU Saturday.

I question the motivation of the Mustangs.  They won't be going to the AAC Title game.  They are coming off a 14-48 loss to Cincinnati that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  They were outgained 199 to 544 by the Bearcats.  They have now gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall for a lackluster finish.  I see no reason they will want to win this game Saturday, either.

Tulsa is the better team despite having the worse record in my opinion.  They have played the tougher schedule and are outgaining opponents by 62 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.  SMU has played the weaker schedule and is outgaining teams by 53 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

SMU was without leading receiver Danny Gray last week and his 49 catches for 803 yards and nine touchdowns this season.  He's questionable to return this week and chances are the Mustangs are going to sit him considering this game isn't that important.  

And I just think this SMU offense is overrated, managing 355 yards against Houston, 323 yards against Memphis and 199 yards against Cincinnati in three of their last four games.  Their defense is poor too giving up 419.1 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  Tulsa allows 378.1 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season to compare.

Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  SMU is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 home games after getting outgained by 225 or more yards last game.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  Don't hesitate to buy this to +7 while also sprinkling that money line.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +32.5

Tennessee just clinched bowl eligibility last week with a win over South Alabama to get their 6th victory of the season.  I don't see them being that motivated to face Vanderbilt this weekend.  And not only are they being asked to win, they are 32.5-point favorites at that.

At 2-9 on the season, this game means a lot more to Vanderbilt as it will be their final game of the season against their rivals.  And that record has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three straight covers.

They only lost to South Carolina by 1 as 19-point underdogs.  They only lost to Missouri by 9 as 16.5-point underdogs.  They covered as 21.5-point dogs in a 17-point loss to Kentucky.  And last week was their most impressive performance yet.  They only lost by 14 as 35.5-point dogs at Ole Miss.  What was impressive about it was that they were only outgained by 16 yards by the Rebels.  

Their offense came to life under backup quarterback Mike Wright.  He led the Commodores to 454 total yards against a very good Ole Miss defense.  Wright threw for 241 yards, but it's his dual-threat ability that makes this Vanderbilt offense better.  He also rushed for 61 yards on 13 carries in that Ole Miss game.  And I think he can do enough to keep Vanderbilt within the number here against this mediocre Tennessee defense.

Vanderbilt is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games following a road loss.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Volunteers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Volunteers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after covering the spread in their previous game.

Tennessee hasn't won any of its last 17 meetings with Vanderbilt by more than 29 points.  That makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to this 32.5-point spread.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +7

The Oregon Ducks suffered their dream crusher loss last week in a 38-7 setback at Utah.  Now they know they won't be going to the four-team playoff when they were in control of their own destiny if they won out having that head-to-head victory over Ohio State.  But none of that matters now.

I think the Ducks suffer a hangover from that defeat.  Now they face an upstart Oregon State Beavers team that is still alive to win the Pac-12 North.  The Beavers will be the more focused, motivated team here and I think we are getting tremendous value with them catching 7 points against the Ducks.

Oregon State is 7-4 this season with all four losses by 14 points or less.  They have been competitive in every game.  They are coming off a 24-10 win over Arizona State as 3-point underdogs.  And I think they have what it takes to hang with this Oregon team that gave up 208 rushing yards to Utah last week.

The Beavers should get their ground game going on offense as they do every week.  They average 230 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry this season.  Their defense has been solid as well, allowing 24.8 points per game and 377.0 yards per game, numbers very comparable to Oregon on both sides of the ball.

Oregon State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog.  The Beavers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.  Oregon State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Ducks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Beavers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Eugene.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -1

Michigan State suffered its dream crusher loss to Ohio State last week in a 56-7 blowout defeat.  Now the Spartans know they won't be making the four-team playoff or the Big Ten Championship Game.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat now that all of their dreams are gone.

Penn State has put the James Franklin rumors behind them as he just signed a contract extension.  I think we get a focused effort from the Nittany Lions, and the fact of the matter is they are the better team in this contest.  The numbers agree.

Penn State is averaging 381.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 333.7 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 48 yards per game.  Michigan State is averaging 429.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 463.4 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by over 34 yards per game.  The Spartans are a fraudulent 9-2 this season, and they are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.

These teams have five common opponents this season.  Penn State is outgaining those five teams by 65.4 yards per game, while Michigan State is getting outgained by 86.2 yards per game by those same five opponents.  This shows that Penn State is the better team and it's not really even close.

The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Penn State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Penn State is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Rice +4

Both of these teams are 3-8 this season, but I like the way that Rice has played to finish the season much more than that of Louisiana Tech.  And I think knowing we will get the 'A' game out of rice and less than that from Louisiana Tech will lead to an upset victory for the Owls at home here Saturday.

Rice upset UAB 30-24 as a 23.5-point road underdog.  They went on to lose to North Texas in OT despite outgaining them by 53 yards.  Then they lost at Charlotte in OT despite outgaining them by 119 yards.  They were only outgained by Western Kentucky by 83 yards in a 21-point loss that was much closer than the final score.  And WKU is one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country, same with UAB.  And last week they lost by 10 at UTEP, another solid 7-4 bowl team.

Louisiana Tech is 1-6 in its last seven games overall with its only win coming against Charlotte in a game it was outgained by 44 yards.  The Bulldogs lost outright to a terrible Southern Miss team by 16 as 15.5-point favorites last week, which is all you need to know about how they are currently playing and their mental state to close the season.  They have been outgained in five of their last six games overall as well.  This team is used to going to bowl games under Skip Holtz, and with that off the table they have struggled to find motivation down the stretch.

The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games games following a loss.  Rice is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less.  Roll with Rice Saturday.

15* Florida State/Florida ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +3

Mike Norvell has done a great job of keeping this Florida State team together this season after an 0-4 start.  The Seminoles have gone 5-2 since with their only losses to Clemson and NC State.  That includes upset road wins over North Carolina and Boston College, as well as an upset home win over Miami.

Now the Seminoles sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They definitely want it, and I know we will get their 'A' game here against their rivals in Florida.  I don't think the same can be said for their opponent and I don't expect anything close to their 'A' game.

Florida is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall and just fired head coach Dan Mullen.  The Gators are coming off an upset loss to Missouri.  They were also upset by 23 as 20.5-point favorites against South Carolina and by 7 as 12.5-point favorites against LSU.  Their only win during this stretch was even a concern as they gave up 52 points as a 31.5-point favorite against Samford.   At 5-6, they just want their season to be over, especially with the distractions about who their next head coach will be.

Florida is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games after a loss by 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Gators are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/East Carolina AAC ANNIHILATOR on East Carolina +14

I think Cincinnati breathes a sigh of relief this week just enough to fail to cover this 14-point spread.  They became the first Group of 5 team to be ranked in the Top 4 of the playoff rankings in the eight years since this system came out.  They finally got recognized after their dominant win over SMU last week, and I think they are overvalued this week as a result.

The fact remains, all the pressure is on Cincinnati here, and that's a lot to deal with.  They hadn't handled it very well in the several weeks prior to SMU, and I think bettors are quickly forgetting that.  And East Carolina is playing too good right now to be catching two touchdowns.  This is the 'National Championship' game for the Pirates with a chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati at home.

The Bearcats went 0-4 ATS in their previous four games prior to beating SMU.  They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen.  They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards.  They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite.  And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite.

East Carolina hasn't lost by more than 14 points all season.  They sit at 7-4 this season so they've already clinched a bowl berth, so they will be kind of free rolling here and playing relaxed football.  Three of their four losses have come by 7 points or less with a 3-point loss to South Carolina, a 4-point loss at UCF and a 7-point loss at Houston.  The 14-point loss was in the opener against Appalachian State.

The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat Tulane by 23, South Florida by 15, Temple by 41, upset Memphis on the road and beat Navy by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite.  That was a huge letdown spot against Navy and they still handled their business.  They had just clinched bowl eligibility the previous week with a win at Memphis.  And they had Cincinnati on deck, so it was a sandwich spot.  So to avoid the upset there against Navy showed a lot about their character.

Not only has East Carolina been a covering machine, they have also dominated the stats here down the stretch.  Indeed, the Pirates have now outgained all seven opponents during this 6-1 ATS stretch.  The last three have been mighty impressive as they outgained Navy by 181 yards, Memphis by 161 yards and Temple by 276 yards.  They also outgained Houston by 109 yards in a road loss in OT, and Houston is nearly as good as Cincinnati.

The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  The Pirates are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game.  Roll with East Carolina Friday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +13.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the UAB Blazers.  They played unbeaten UTSA last week with a trip to the Conference USA Championship Game on the line.  They gave up a touchdown with 3 seconds left to lose, 31-34 in heartbreaking fashion.  I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to beat UTEP by 14-plus points to cover this number now.

Both of these teams are 7-4 this season, but it's UAB that gets the respect while UTEP has been flying under the radar all season.  The Miners got off to a 6-1 start this season before losing three straight, but two of those losses were by exactly 3 points.  They rebounded nicely last week with a 38-28 home win over Rice.  Keep in mind UAB was upset by Rice recently.  And now the Miners want to put a stamp on their season and beat UAB in the finale.  They will be the more motivated team here.

UTEP boasts a balanced offense that averages 252 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and 148 rushing yards per game.  They also boast an underrated defense that allows 23.2 points per game, 339.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  Their numbers are very similar to that of UAB, which has a suspect offense at 389.5 yards per game on the season.  That offense makes it hard for the Blazers to cover these big numbers, especially given the terrible spot for them today.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UTEP) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Take UTEP Friday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan.  The Chippewas have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They made a run to close the season to try and win the MAC West.  But Northern Illinois sealed the West with a win last week in overtime against Buffalo.

Now this is a huge letdown spot for the Chippewas as the wind has been lifted from beneath their sails.  They are no longer playing for a championship, and they already have a bowl bid locked up.  I don't expect them to be nearly as motivated for this game as they would have been with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line.

Eastern Michigan has been grossly underrated for years, including this season.  The Eagles sit at 7-4 this season as well.  Amazingly, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which came on the road at Wisconsin in non-conference play.  That's understandable as Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the country.

Eastern Michigan has pulled several upsets this season.  Most recently, they went into Toledo and won 52-49 as 9-point dogs, while also knocking off a very good Western Michigan team 22-21 as 5-point home dogs.  Whoever wins this game Friday, I expect it to be decided by one score, so there's value here with the Eagles catching 9 points.

Chris Creighton is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Eastern Michigan.  Creighton is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game at EMU.  The Eagles are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 road games, including 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as road underdogs.  Bet Eastern Michigan Friday.

20* Bills/Saints NBC Thursday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -6

The Buffalo Bills have responded well after bad losses this season.  They want to get the taste out of their mouth from that 41-15 loss to the Colts in which they were -4 in turnovers.  The good news is they don't have to wait long to do it here against the New Orleans Saints.

The Bills have four losses this season.  They are 3-0 ATS following a loss.  After losing to Pittsburgh in the opener, they beat Miami 35-0 on the road the next week.  After losing at Tennessee, they won 26-11 at home against Miami the next week.  And after losing at Jacksonville, they won 45-17 at the New York Jets the next week.

The Saints continue getting respect from oddsmakers that they don't deserve with a third-string QB.  They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are coming off a 40-29 loss at Philadelphia in which they gave up 242 rushing yards.  They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons and gave up 332 passing yards.

Injuries are adding up for the Saints, and they just don't have a good enough offense to keep up with the Bills.  And Jalen Hurts ran wild on the Saints last week.  Now they face another mobile quarterback in Josh Allen, who should have a monster game against their defense as well.  And the Bills are about as healthy as any team in the NFL at this point in the season.

Plays against underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 35-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.  The Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by more than 14 points.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +1.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are 9-2 this season and playing for a New Year's 6 Bowl ranked 9th in the latest playoff rankings.  So anyone that questions their motivation here against a rival in Mississippi State is out of their minds.  These players want this game more than any other game this season, so any concerns about Lane Kiffin possibly taking another job are unwarranted.  That will show up in their bowl game if it does at all.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Mississippi State, which has gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Now the unranked Bulldogs are actually favored over the 9th-ranked Rebels.  Many like to back these unranked favorites against ranked teams blindly.  But this isn't the spot for it as Ole Miss is simply the better team.

The four wins during this stretch have come against Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee State.  They lost to the best team they faced in Arkansas.  And it's worth noting Ole Miss beat Arkansas, and gave Alabama a much better game than Mississippi State, which lost 49-9 to Alabama.  Ole Miss beat LSU by 14 while Mississippi State lost to LSU.

While the Rebels get a lot of hype and deservedly so for Matt Corral and the offense that averaged 517.5 yards per game, it's the improvement on defense that has made the difference for the Rebels this season.  They give up just 25.4 points per game on the season.  They allow 5.5 yards per play, which is the same as Mississippi State, which allows 5.5 yards per play as well but is perceived to be the better defense.

There's no question Ole Miss has the better offense.  They average 36.4 points, 517.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  Mississippi State is improved offensively this year, but still far behind Ole Miss as 31.8 points, 452.3 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Ole Miss is outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play, while Mississippi State is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play.  Ole Miss only averages 0.7 turnovers per game on offense, while Mississippi State gives it away 1.4 times per game.  The Rebels force 1.8 turnovers per game, while the Bulldogs force 1.4 turnovers per game.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.

15* Raiders/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 51

The Raiders are broken offensively since losing Harry Ruggs to injury.  They have scored 16 points or fewer in three consecutive games now and it has come against some pretty weak defenses in the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals.  They won't do much better here against the Cowboys with an offense that only really features Darren Waller as a decent weapon.

The Cowboys have been held to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four.  Injuries are really piling up for them on offense as well.  Amari Cooper is out, and CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are questionable.  But the Cowboys have an improved defense this season that gives up just 21.4 points per game.  They have held three of their last four opponents to 19 points or fewer, including the 19 points allowed to the Chiefs last week.

The Raiders are also improved defensively this season.  They give up just 352.7 yards per game.  They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and should be able to get after Dak Prescott.  They held Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's high-powered offense to just 129 passing yards on 20-of-29 attempts.  Three weeks ago they held the Giants to 96 passing yards.  They are giving up just 6.1 yards per attempt this season.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Cowboys last nine November games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Raiders last 10 November games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Western Michigan/NIU ESPNU No-Brainer on Western Michigan -3

Northern Illinois just clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game with their 33-27 (OT) win over Buffalo last week.  Now this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Huskies, who won't care about winning this game and will just be looking to stay healthy going into the title game next week.

Western Michigan would love to beat this team to close out the regular season and will be the more motivated team.  And I'm not so sure the Broncos aren't the better team, too.  But I'm definitely playing them because of the spot, which screams letdown for the Huskies.

The numbers show the Broncos are the better team, though.  Western Michigan is outgaining teams by 106.0 yards per game.  They are averaging 448.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 342.5 yards per game on defense.  The Broncos are clearly better than their 6-5 record would indicate.

Northern Illinois is only outgaining teams by 2.6 yards per game, averaging 439.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 436.5 yards per game on defense.  They have been one of the most lucky teams in the country winning so many close games to get to 8-3 this season.  Seven of their eight wins have come by one score with the lone exception being against FCS Maine.

Western Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games following three or more consecutive ATS losses.  Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

20* Giants/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on New York +11.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers after winning the Super Bowl last year.  They are just 3-6 ATS this season.  After losing 27-36 on the road to the Saints and Trevor Siemian, the Bucs had their bye week and many expected a big effort.  Instead, they lost outright 19-29 to Washington as 10-point favorites.

Now the Bucs come back as 11.5-point home favorites over another NFC East team in the New York Giants.  This despite the fact that the Bucs are missing several key players.  They are missing three cornerbacks, and they lost their run stuffer in Vita Vea last week with an injury.  He is crucial to their front seven and is one of the most underrated players in the NFL.  Offensively, they'll still be without Rob Gronkowki, and Antonio Brown is questionable after sitting last week.

Don't look now but the Giants are quietly playing some great football.  They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Carolina 25-3 as 3-point dogs and Las Vegas 23-16 as 3-point dogs.  Their lone loss, they nearly upset the Chiefs in a 17-20 defeat as 10.5-point road dogs.  And now they are coming off their bye week and will be even healthier than they were last time out against the Raiders.

The Giants are a pretty easy team to figure out.  Always bet them as a road underdogs.  Indeed, the Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Giants are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tampa Bay.  Bruce Arians is 0-6 ATS vs. NFC East opponents as the coach of Tampa Bay.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3

You definitely need to jump on the Dolphins as soon as possible.  This line isn't going to hold at -3 for much longer.  Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Jets.  He has been a disaster and it's amazing he is even in the league.  They will now be on their 4th different starting quarterback.  

The offense will be a mess with him at the helm.  And it just shows the Jets don't care about winning games by inserting Flacco instead of Mike White or Josh Johnson.  They don't want there to be a QB controversy when Zach Wilson comes back.

New York's defense is already a mess, allowing a total of 175 points in their last 4 games for an average of 43.4 points per game.  This is far and away the worst defense in the NFL.  The Dolphins are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season this week.

Tua came back in the 2nd half against the Ravens and led them to a 22-10 victory.  His finger looked absolutely fine.  He went 8-of-13 passing for 153 yards and averaged 12.2 yards per attempt.  He also scored a rushing touchdown.  And now the Dolphins get extra prep time after playing the Ravens last Thursday, which is basically a mine-bye week.

This  Miami defense has gotten healthy in recent weeks and is getting back to being the dominant unit that led this team last year.  They held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 10 points and 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  That came a week after holding the Texans to just 9 points and 272 yards while forcing 4 more turnovers.    And that was a Texans team with Tyrod Taylor at QB, which is a big upgrade over Davis Mills.

Miami won both meetings last year in blowout fashion, 24-0 at home and 20-3 on the road.  The Dolphins improved to 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and just a hot mess right now from head coach Robert Saleh, to the leaky defense, to the washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback.  There's just nothing to like about them right now.  

Miami has all the 'buy on' signs you are looking for late in the season.  They are undervalued due to their 3-7 record.  But they have won two straight and have a great chance of getting back to .500 at 7-7 with the upcoming schedule.  After facing the Jets this week, they get three straight home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets in games they should be favored in.  Everything is still in front of them.  Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans +10.5

This is the spot the Tennessee Titans have their letdown.  They have now won six straight games including five in a row against playoff teams from last year.  I question how much they have left in the tank after their wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints the last six weeks.  

This is a tired team right now too as the Titans haven't had a bye week yet and won't get one until Week 13.  The injuries are piling up.  They have 23 players on injured reserve.  They are already without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, leaving basically just Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown as their best offensive players by far.  LB's Bud Dupree, David Long Jr. and Rashaan Evans are all questionable, as is CB Greg Mabin.

The Titans were very fortunate to beat the Rams and Saints the last two weeks with their lack of offense.  They beat the Rams despite just 194 total yards.  They managed just 264 total yards against the Saints and had a fluky roughing the passer penalty go their way on Tannehill that wiped out an INT in the end zone and led to 7 points, which was the difference in their 23-21 victory.  It also helped that the Saints missed two extra points.  And the Saints should have won that game with a third-string QB in Trevor Siemian and without their best player in Alvin Kamara.

The Texans will be highly motivated for their first victory since Week 1.  They are coming off their bye week and facing the division leader in the Titans, so they will give a big effort.  It's clear they are still trying to win games or they wouldn't have brought back QB Tyrod Taylor.  He was rusty in his first start back against the Dolphins, but he should get back to his old self off a bye.  And his old self is a covering machine and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL with his ability as a dual-threat.

Both meetings last season were decided by 3 and 6 points.  And in both games, the Texans had a chance to win late but fumbled going into the end zone.  They have not forgotten, and they would love nothing more than to get their revenge here.  I think they have an excellent chance to win outright, but at the very least they will cover this 10.5-point spread with ease.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) after six or more consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 13 are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS since 1983.  This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot.  We'll 'buy low' on the Texans off eight straight losses.  And we'll 'sell high' on the Titans off six straight wins.  It's that simple folks as we are getting max line value here.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* Colts/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7.5

The Buffalo Bills have beaten up on the bad teams they have faced.  Their six wins have come against Houston, Miami (twice), Washington, Kansas City and the New York Jets.  Five of those six wins came against teams that are 3-6 or worse.  The lone decent win was against the Chiefs, but they are way down this season too.  The Bills also lost to the Jaguars, Steelers and Titans.  They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL according to Sagain.

The Colts have played a much tougher schedule.  And they are playing their best football of the season after a slow start.  The Colts have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their two losses both came in overtime to the Ravens and Titans in games in which they blew late leads.  So they haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 6 points.

The Colts are as healthy as they have been all season.  They have a Top 10 defense to contain Josh Allen and this offense.  And the Colts have been serviceable with Carson Wentz at quarterback and the running of Jonathan Taylor at running back.  There could be some bad weather in Buffalo Sunday, so that favors the team that can run the football in the Colts.  The Bills have struggled to run the ball again this season.

One sneaky factor here is that the Colts want revenge from a 24-27 road loss as nearly identical 7-point underdogs to the Bills in the playoffs last year.  They actually deserved to win that game outright.  They had 472 total yards against this Buffalo defense and outgained them by 75 yards.  They rushed for 163 yards on this Buffalo defense.

The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  

I just think this line is too big of an overreaction to Buffalo's blowout win over the Jets last week in which the Jets committed five turnovers.  They had just lost outright to the Jaguars as a 14.5-point favorite the week prior, so it's amazing how the betting markets shift their opinions in just one week.  The Colts are not the type of team that gets blown out, they are too solid everywhere and will keep this game within one score.  Take the Colts Sunday.

15* Oregon/Utah ABC ANNIHILATOR on Utah -3

Utah is a one-way team for me right now.  I'm either backing them or passing.  Kyle Whittingham has this team playing up to its potential now after a slow start to the season.  The Utes are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They are 4-0 at home this season with all four wins by double-digits.  And this will be a night game at 7:30 EST at Rice-Eccles Stadium.  That makes it one of the best atmospheres in all of college football.  Not to mention the Utes would clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship with a win, so they have a lot to play for.

I haven't been a big Oregon believer all season.  They seem to just keep escaping with wins ever since that victory over Ohio State.  I think their run ends here Saturday against the best team in the Pac-12 in my opinion in Utah.  The Utes definitely have the better quarterback.  I bet Whittingham wishes he started Cameron Rising over Charlie Brewer from the start.

Rising has responded with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  His dual-threat ability has been the key to this offense, though.  Rising has rushed for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 per carry.  Utah has scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games now with Rising at the helm.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Ducks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  The Utes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games.

Plays on home teams (Utah) - after three or more consecutive wins against an opponent that's off five or more consecutive wins are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +36.5

The 2-8 record for Vanderbilt has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only lost by 1 at South Carolina as 19-point dogs, by 9 to Missouri as 16.5-point dogs and by 17 to Kentucky as 21.5-point dogs.

Now the Commodores are looking forward to this opportunity to try and knock off Ole Miss.  Meanwhile, the Rebels won't be up for this game at all.  They are coming off their huge win over Texas A&M last week, and now they have an even bigger game on deck Thursday in the Egg Bowl against their biggest rivals in Mississippi State.  

That makes this a sandwich spot.  The Rebels won't be excited to face Vanderbilt, and they will be looking ahead to that game against Mississippi State.  Since it's on Thanksgiving on a short week, they just want to try and go into that game healthy and fresh.  Look for them to rest starters in the second half like they did against Liberty if it comes down to it.  This is a tired Rebels team as it is playing for an 8th consecutive week.

Vanderbilt is the much fresher team.  They had a bye prior to Kentucky last week, which allowed them to cover that number and only lose by 17.  They should still be fresh for this one, which is key going up against a team like Ole Miss that plays with tempo.

The Commodores are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Ole Miss.  The Commodores are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games following three or more consecutive losses.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins returned from their bye and smoked Colorado 44-20 as an 18-point favorite.  Now they will still be fresh and ready to take down their rivals in the USC Trojans, who don't care about this game as much as the Bruins do.  UCLA wants revenge from a gut-wrenching 43-38 loss to the Trojans last year.

USC is a program in turmoil with a lame-duck interim head coach.  Their play on the field has reflected it.  The Trojans are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only victory came in a nail biter against the worst team in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 41-34 as a 21.5-point favorite.

USC lost 16-31 on the road to Notre Dame as a 7.5-point dog.  They lost 26-42 at home as a 3-point favorite against Utah.  And they also lost 16-31 as a 10-point dog at Arizona State.  So they lost all three games by 15 points or more and weren't competitive.  I don't expect them to be competitive Saturday, either.

USC is without starting QB Kedon Slovis.  Backup Jaxson Dart will get the start, and he just hasn't been as effective this season.  And he won't have the services of top wideout Drake London, who has 88 receptions for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns this season.  The next-best receiver has 41 receptions, 474 yards and one score, so the loss of London is huge.

The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  USC is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.  Roll with UCLA Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on SMU +11.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are feeling the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff.  They are just surviving and advancing at this point.  And they are overvalued late in the year due to their perfect 10-0 record.  That unbeaten record is in jeopardy this weekend against arguably the best team they have faced yet in the SMU Mustangs.

The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen.  They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards.  They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite.  And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite last week.

SMU is looking at this game as its 'National Championship' game.  The Mustangs sit at 8-2 but have a head-to-head loss to Houston, which will likely keep them out of the AAC title game.  They would love nothing more than to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati.

The two losses by SMU came by 3 and 7 points this season.  They are coming off a 55-28 win over UCF as a 7-point favorite, so they have momentum.  And they have the offense to give Cincinnati a run for its money.  No question, this is the best offense the Bearcats will have faced this season.

The Mustangs are putting up 41.6 points and 498.8 yards per game this season.  Their defense has been respectable in allowing 25.9 points per game.  There's a chance the Bearcats will be without leading rusher Jerome Ford, who has accounted for 1,053 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns this season.  He missed last week's game against USF and is questionable for this one.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet SMU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -2.5

There's just no salvaging the season for Texas at this point.  The damage has already been done.  They have lost five straight games coming in.  They followed up their 23-point loss to Iowa State by getting upset as a 31-point favorite against Kansas last week.

I just don't see them getting back up off the mat to take the long road trip to West Virginia.  There is so much turmoil in this program right now.  I think it's best we keep fading them for these last two games.  And I like the spot for West Virginia, which needs to more wins to make a bowl and plays Kansas next week.

It's always a tough trip for this Big 12 teams going all the way out to West Virginia.  Just ask Iowa State a few weeks ago when the Mountaineers upset them.  And you know West Virginia has had this game circled after coming up just short at Texas last year in a 17-13 loss.  They were driving late in the final seconds of that game to go in for the game-winning score, but the refs didn't throw an obvious pass interference penalty in the end zone that likely would have given them the win.  I know because I had West Virginia in that game as they covered as 6.5-point dogs.

West Virginia's last two losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State were misleading.  They held Oklahoma State to just 285 yards.  They held Kansas State to just 299 yards.  They still have one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  And their offense should come to life like it did against Iowa State 3 weeks ago when they had 492 yards against a very good Iowa State defense.

This Texas defense is soft as butter.  The Longhorns just allowed 57 points to Kansas and have now allowed 30 or more points in 5 straight.  They are giving up 38.1 points per game in conference play.

West Virginia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when coming off a game where they forced zero turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites.  The Mountaineers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games overall.  Whether or not Texas has quit, I expect the Mountaineers to win and cover at home Saturday as I know they will show up for this game.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +13.5

This game means nothing to Kent State.  The Golden Flashes play Miami Ohio next week for a trip to the MAC Championship Game win or lose.  They have to beat Miami Ohio either way.  So I foresee them looking ahead to that game, and likely not trying to hard to beat Akron this weekend.

Akron continues to battle even without its head coach.  The Zips have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset Bowling Green, lost to Miami Ohio by 13 as 20-point dogs, lost to Ball State by 6 as 20-point dogs, and lost to Western Michigan by 5 as 26-point dogs.  Now they are catching too many points again this weekend.

The key to Akron's resurgence has been QB Zach Gibson.  He has provided a huge spark for the offense, completing 69.9% of his passes for 1,151 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  His dual-threat ability has been huge as he has been great at scrambling and finding his underrated weapons on the outside.

Gibson should continue his great play against a terrible Kent State defense that allows 36.8 points per game, 496.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  That against opposing offenses that average just 26.1 points per game, 387 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So the Golden Flashes are allowing 10.7 points per game, 110 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents have averaged on the season.

Plays against any team (Kent State) - with a horrible scoring defense that allows 35 points per game or more, after two straight games where 70 combined points or more were scored are 80-35 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Akron Saturday.

20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +19.5

Michigan State finally gets its chance to earn some respect with a showdown with Ohio State this weekend.  No question the Spartans feel disrespected being this big of underdogs.  And I think this line is out of hand this weekend.

Michigan State is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS this season.  The Spartans are loaded with a balanced offense that averages 34.6 points per game while rushing for 198 yards per game and throwing for 252 yards per game.  I just don't see Ohio State being able to slow them down enough to cover this large number.

I do expect the Spartans to hold their own defensively, too.  The Buckeyes are also balanced, but they aren't going to be able to run the football with much consistency on a Michigan State defense that gives up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.

We've seen Ohio State pushed by Oregon, Penn State and Nebraska, arguably the three best teams they have faced.  The Buckeyes lost outright to Oregon at home and only beat both Penn State and Nebraska by 9 points each.  Michigan State is in the same ballpark as those three teams if not better than them.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona +15.5

The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-9 SU this season.  But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch.  Now they have a great shot to get their 2nd win against one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in Washington State Friday night.

Arizona State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs.  And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference.  If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season.

In fact, the Wildcats have only been outgained by more than 85 yards just once in their last eight games overall.  That was the 139 yards they were outgained by Utah, which isn't that bad.  In their last eight games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 26.8 yards per game on average.  They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before.

This is a terrible spot for Washington State.  They just played Oregon last week, and now they have the Apple Cup on deck next week against Washington.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Cougars.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face Arizona as they were Oregon, and they won't be nearly as motivated to face Arizona as they will be Washington.  I think that factor will have them winning this game by two touchdowns or less and possibly losing outright.

When you look at the numbers, these are very evenly-matched teams.  Arizona is only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season.  Washington State is getting outgained by 23 yards per game on the season.  The Wildcats have a sneaky good defense that gives up just 367.3 yards per game.  The Cougars give up 397.6 yards per game.

Washington State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Washington State has only been favored three times this season and one was a 1.5-point favorite in a 3-point win against Stanford.  They actually lost outright as an 18-point favorite to Utah State, too.  Bet Arizona Friday.

20* Patriots/Falcons Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off the 45-7 victory over Cleveland last week resulting in the second-biggest blowout in the NFL.  I always like fading teams coming off the big blowout like that because they are always overvalued the next week.

Couple that with the fact that the Falcons are coming off the biggest blowout loss, losing 43-3 to the Cowboys last week.  And we are getting max line value based off of one week's results.  A team is never as good or bad as they played last week.  And the Falcons should not be catching 7 points at home to the Patriots Thursday night.

These short weeks always tend to favor the home teams.  And you know the Falcons will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Patriots will be feeling fat and happy coming into this one.  Keep in mind Atlanta just went on the road and won outright at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog the week prior to losing to Dallas.  And Dallas was just down 30-0 to Denver the previous week before blowout out Atlanta.  

This is just how the NFL works.  You won't to fade last week's results because that's where you get optimal line value.  The lookahead line for this game was Patriots -4.  So we are getting a full 3 points of value here with the Patriots now at -7 based off last week's results alone.

Each of Atlanta's previous six games before Dallas were decided by 7 points or fewer, and they hadn't lost any of them by more than 6 points.  I think this game is decided by one score either way.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last three seasons.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

20* NIU/Buffalo ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Northern Illinois PK

Northern Illinois can clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game with a win over Buffalo tonight.  They will be max motivated and not want to wait until next week against a very good Western Michigan team to clinch.  They will handle their business tonight against Buffalo.

This Buffalo team has been overvalued all season based on what they did last year when they were the best team in the MAC during the regular season.  But they lost their coach and many of their best players.  The result has been a disappointing 4-6 season where they aren't likely to make a bowl game because they would have to win out against NIU and at Ball State to get there.

And it looks like the Bulls have packed it in in recent weeks.  After getting upset 44-56 as a 13.5-point home favorite against a Bowling Green team that is getting crushed by everyone, they went on to lose 18-45 at Miami Ohio last week.  I don't understand why the Bulls are getting so much respect from oddsmakers after those two performances this week, and I'll gladly take advantage and fade them.

This is a great matchup for Northern Illinois.  The Huskies are second in the MAC in rushing offense at 220 yards per game.  They have run the ball nearly twice as many times (459 attempts) as they have thrown (270 attempts) this season.  Well, the Bulls have given up 218.3 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry in conference games this season.  And while Buffalo is tops in the MAC with 33 sacks, that won't be a factor here because Northern Illinois has surrendered just 7 sacks all season and doesn't throw much.  When they do, they have a dual-threat QB in Rocky Lombardi who can elude the rush.

The Huskies are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 road games.  Northern Illinois is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio +7

Don't look now but despite being 3-7, the Ohio Bobcats have a chance to win the MAC East.  They are just one game behind both Miami Ohio and Kent State and actually hold the tiebreaker over the Redhawks.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way and are flying under the radar.

Indeed, the Bobcats are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all three losses coming by 7 points or less.  They are coming off two straight upset wins over Miami Ohio 35-33 as 7-point underdogs and Eastern Michigan 34-26 as 6-point dogs.  Now this is a huge game on Senior Night at home against Toledo, and I think we get another big effort from them in a game they can certainly win outright.

Toledo sits at 5-5 on the season and was officially eliminated from MAC West title contention last week when Northern Illinois beat Ball State to get to 5-1 in the conference, while Toledo sits at 3-3.  The Huskies already beat the Rockets, so they have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

I question Toledo's motivation the rest of the way now that they have been eliminated from the MAC title picture.  Yes, they want to get bowl eligible bowl with another win, but they know they have lowly Akron on deck at home next week to accomplish that.

Toledo is getting way too much respect off its 49-17 win over lowly Bowling Green last week.  Remember, the Rockets had gone 1-3 SU in their previous four games with upset losses to Northern Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite, Central Michigan as a 5-point favorite and Eastern Michigan as a 9-point favorite.  They cannot be trusted to go on the road and lay 7 points her against this surging Ohio team with more to play for.

The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Toledo is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.  The Bobcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Ohio Tuesday.

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +4

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the San Francisco 49ers.  The entire world, including myself, were on them last week.  I had them +2.5 and they closed -5.5 against the Cardinals, an 8-point adjustment.  But they fell flat on their faces and turned it over three times in a lackluster 17-31 loss.

Now the 49ers will have be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.  Especially with all the headlines the Rams are making of late with all the moves they are making to try and win a Super Bowl.

Speaking of falling flat on their faces, the Rams lost 16-28 as a 7-point home favorite to the Tennessee Titans last week.  They didn't have Von Miller for that game and may not have him this game, either.  And too much is being made of the trade for Odell Beckham Jr, who has been a cancer everywhere he has gone.  The bigger news is losing Robert Woods to a season-ending ACL injury in practice on Friday.  He has been a reliable receiver for this team for years under Sean McVay.  Odell is questionable to play Monday as well and won't be that effective even if he does.

The 49ers are simply way better than their 3-5 record would indicate.  They are outgaining teams by 27.5 yards per game despite not having Jimmy G for a couple games.  They outgain their opponents by 0.8 yards per play which is one of the better margins in the NFL, averaging 6.3 per play on offense and giving up 5.5 per play on defense.  Jimmy G and George Kittle are both back healthy, and he has plenty of weapons now to get the ball to in the underrated Deebo Samuel plus Brandon Ayuk.

Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers simply own McVay and the Rams.  The 49ers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings winning outright as underdogs all three times they were in the dog role.  The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  San Francisco is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 Monday games.  Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Bet the 49ers Monday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals.  They have the best record in the NFL at 8-1.  And they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  That includes their shocking upset of the 49ers.

The world, including myself, was on the 49ers in that game and got great line value.  The 49ers got bet up to 5.5-point favorites.  They failed to show up and had some critical turnovers.  And the Cardinals rallied behind their backups without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green.  Colt McCoy had a career game.

I always like fading teams after a big performance like that when they were missing key players because it's tough to repeat.  And it's uncertain whether Murray, Hopkins or Green will be back this week as they are all questionable.  Either way, I don't think you are going to find better than 10.5 on the Panthers later on in the week.

This line indicated that Murray is playing at a minimum.  But I don't think it matters who is under center, the Panthers will cover.  Their season is on the line here at 4-5 with a chance to get back to .500.  And as bad as Sam Darnold has been, I think PJ Walker might actually be an upgrade at quarterback.

The team has lost faith in Darnold and the Panthers should rally around Walker just as the Cardinals did with McCoy last week.  Christian McCaffrey finally returned to the lineup last week and should be even better this week as he is another week healthier.

Carolina has an elite defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  The Panthers rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense giving up just 293.1 yards per game.  They also rank 2nd in giving up just 5.0 yards per play.  They will lean on this defense and McCaffrey to keep it close with Walker playing a mistake-free game as well and a game plan that fits his dual-threat ability, an added element the Cardinals are going to have to prepare for that they wouldn't have had to with Darnold.  The Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in giving up nearly 5 yards per carry, so this is a great matchup for the Panthers.

This just feels like the ultimate flat spot for the Cardinals.  They just played a stretch of six games against the Rams, 49ers (twice), Browns, Packers and Texans.  They are coming off that huge divisional win over the 49ers with their backs against the wall.  Now they have a road game at Seattle on deck next week.  They won't be able to get up emotionally for this Panthers team that has lost five of their last six.  Teams simply cannot be max motivated every week.

Arizona is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  Carolina is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.  The Cardinals are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites.  Carolina is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Football Team this week.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and now find themselves catching double-digits for the first time all season.  They will return from their bye highly motivated for a victory and to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs.

Washington has lost four in a row but deserved to win a couple of those games at the very least.  They didn't deserve to beat Kansas City, but they actually outgained the other three teams they lost to.  They outgained the Packers by 126 yards, the Broncos by 69 yards and the Saints by 4 yards.

Tampa Bay has been suspect on the road this season.  The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in road games with upset losses to the Rams and Saints.  They only beat the Eagles by 6 and the Patriots by 2, failing to cover as bigger favorites.  Now they are being asked to go on the road and beat Washington by double-digits, which is asking too much.

That's especially the case with all the players the Bucs are missing on offense.  They will be without both Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown this week.  Chris Godwin is also questionable.  So this bye week didn't really get the Bucs any healthier than they were going into it.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - that is outgaining opponents by 0.75 or more yards per play, after gaining 400 or more total yards on average in their last three games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Washington wants revenge from a 31-23 playoff loss to the Bucs last season.  Ron Rivera is 27-10 ATS following a road loss in all games as a head coach.  The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as road favorites.  The underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Washington Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Browns +2.5

The Browns were as healthy as they have been in a long time last week.  It showed when they beat the Bengals 41-16 on the road in a dominant effort.  Their secondary is finally healthy, and the offense showed what it could do without Odell Beckham Jr., continuing to play better without him as a distraction.  I think their solid play carries over into this week against the Patriots.

I believe the Browns are the better team in this matchup and should not be underdogs.    And it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Patriots after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  Mac Jones gets a lot of love but it's not like he's been that great this season with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio.

The Patriots need to be able to run the ball to be successful.  But they'll be up against an elite Cleveland front seven that can stop the run.  The Browns rank 3rd in the NFL against the run giving up just 84.8 yards per game.  They are 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry.  New England will be without top running back Damian Harris for this one as well, putting more pressure on Jones to make plays.

Like I said, this Browns secondary is healthy now and made life miserable on Joe Burrow last week.  I think this Cleveland defense will shut down the Patriots as well.  The Browns average 160 rushing yards per game and have proven they can still run it successfully even without Nick Chubb.    

The Patriots give up 109 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that normally average 98 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  I don't think they are that good against the run, they just haven't played many great running teams.  This will be their toughest test yet trying to stop the run.

Home-field advantage has been non-existent for the Patriots this season.  They are actually 1-4 SU at home with their only win coming against the lowly New York Jets.  The Browns are 3-1 ATS on the road with their only non-cover coming in a huge comeback win by the Chargers, 47-42.  

New England is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Patriots are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on TCU +12.5

The firing of Gary Patterson lit a fire under the TCU Horned Frogs.  It also helped that they one of the best interim head coaches possible in Jerry Kill.  He guided the Horned Frogs to a 30-28 upset win over Baylor as 7.5-point underdogs last week.  And I think they give a big effort again this week against Oklahoma State.

The win over Baylor wasn't fluky at all.  The Horned Frogs racked up 562 total yards and held the Bears to just 393 yards, outgaining them by 169 yards.  QB Chandler Morris went 29-of-41 for 461 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 70 yards and a score.  Look out for him here down the stretch in the Big 12 after that performance.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Oklahoma State after opening 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and massively exceeding expectations.  Now they are laying double-digits here against TCU when they shouldn't be.  While the Cowboys have a great defense, their offense leaves a lot to be desired and makes it difficult to cover these kinds of numbers.  

They average just 28.8 points per game, 382.4 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.  To compare, TCU is putting up 31.3 points, 450.6 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  They are at a disadvantage on defense, but they can more than make up for it on offense this week.

Plays on any team (TCU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 points or more with 4 or more starters returning than their opponent are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with TCU Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee +20.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Georgia Bulldogs due to being 9-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  That record and ranking has them overvalued as the betting public continues to back them and push these spreads higher than they should be down the stretch.  Missouri covered against them last week, and I expect Tennessee to cover this 20.5-point spread this week.

This looks like Georgia's toughest test of the season to date.  Tennessee is no joke.  The Volunteers are 5-4 this season with losses to Pitt by 7 and Ole Miss by 5.  They did lose by more to Florida and Alabama, but those games were much closer than the final scores would indicate.  And I think they can take Georgia to the wire this week.

Tennessee boasts one of the best offenses in the country in averaging 38.2 points, 457.1 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They are averaging 8.6 points, 77 yards and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow on the season.  And their defense is better than it gets credit for, holding opponents to 5.3 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play.

The key here is Tennessee's defense has been good at stopping the run.  They give up just 3.8 yards per carry this season.  That should help them slow down a Georgia rushing attack that averages 190 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry.  Their ability to stop the run will keep them in this game for four quarters, and Georgia hasn't seen an offense this good all season, especially not one that plays at the kind of pace that Tennessee does.  I expect the Bulldogs to give up their largest point total of the season.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* Miami/Florida State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

The Miami Hurricanes are rolling offensive right now behind freshman sensation quarterback Tyler Van Dyke.  They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games behind Van Dyke.  He is completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,877 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Their offense has also gone for 420 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.

Florida State got good news this week with the return of QB Jordan Travis after he sat out last game against NC State.  Travis is completing 62.9% of his passes with an 11-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 340 yards and four scores and his dual-threat ability makes this FSU offense much more dynamic.

Both defenses have been disappointing this season and the offenses should steal the show in this rivalry game.  The Seminoles allow 27.0 points per game this season against a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  This Miami offense may be the best they've seen all season.  The Hurricanes allow 30.4 points and 405.3 yards per game on the season.

The OVER is 5-1 in Miami's last six games overall with combined scores of 58 or more points in all six games and 61 or more points in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Troy +7

I love the spot for the Troy Trojans this week.  They sit at 5-4 and with a chance to clinch bowl eligibility.  They are also just one game back in the Sun Belt East division and very much alive to win the conference title.  That makes this kind of their 'National Championship' game this weekend.

Meanwhile, it's just another game for Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 8-1 this season and 6-0 in Sun Belt play.  They just clinched the West Division title with their 21-17 win over Georgia State last week.  Second place is just 2-3 in the division as it's by far the weaker of the two divisions.  I question their motivation the rest of the way.

Louisiana is nowhere near as good as its 8-1 record, either.  The Rajin' Cajuns have won so many close games this year.  They beat Nicholls State by 3 as 26-point favorites, Georgia Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12-point favorites, Arkansas State by 1 as 17-point favorites and Georgia State by 4 as 13.5-point favorites.  That's five wins against five bad teams all by one score.  I think this game will be decided by one score, too.

Troy has a tendency of playing in close games, too.  Five of the Trojans' nine games have been decided by one score.  Eight of their nine games have been decided by 13 points or less with the lone exception behind their 55-3 win over Southern in the opener.

Troy has a great defense that keeps it in games.  The Trojans give up just 21.8 points per game, 316.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  The key to stopping Louisiana is stopping their rushing attack that averages 204 yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  Well, Troy has the antidote with a run defense that gives up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry.

The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Trojans are 3-1 at home this season.  They showed they could play with the big boys in this conference as they went on the road and only lost to Coastal Carolina 28-35 as 17-point underdogs.  And now they'll give the Rajin' Cajuns a run for their money this weekend.  Take Troy Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Baylor FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +6

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Oklahoma Sooners.  They are a fraudulent 9-0 this season with five wins coming by one score.  I think there's a good chance this game is decided by a single score, so there's value in getting the Baylor Bears catching 6 points at home Saturday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Baylor after their 28-30 upset home loss to TCU.  I don't think they took TCU seriously because they had just fired their head coach leading into that game.  And the Bears couldn't help but look ahead to this game against Oklahoma, and it costs them.  Now this is their 'National Championship' and we should get an 'A' effort from the Bears this week.

No question the Bears have the numbers of an elite team.  They average 36.3 points, 457.4 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play on offense.  They give up 20.6 points per game, 364.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on defense.  They outscore their opponents by 15.7 points per game, outgain them by 93.6 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.

When you compare those numbers to Oklahoma, they are very similar and this line should be close to a PK with perhaps Baylor actually favored.  Oklahoma outgain opponents by 95.4 yards per game and 1.5 yards per play.  The Sooners outscore their opponents by 18.7 points per game.  And keep in mind Baylor has played the tougher schedule up to this point having already played Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Oklahoma still has to play the three other best teams in the conference in Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State the next three weeks.

Plays on home teams (Baylor) - a good rushing team (190-230 RYPG) against an average rushing team (140-190 RYPG) after 7-plus games, after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  Baylor is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.  The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  Baylor is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Sooners.  Take Baylor Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +7

The Indiana Hoosiers came into the season ranked in the Top 25.  They have fallen flat on their faces and currently sit at 2-7 on the season after losing 29-7 to Michigan last week.  The Hoosiers now won't be going bowling, and I question their motivation the rest of the way.

Rutgers is highly motivated to get to a bowl game.  They sit at 4-5 on the season and close with Maryland at home.  This is a very winnable game for them and I think they'll be 'all in' here to get it.  Their 'A' effort should be good enough to cover this 7-point spread and possibly pull off the upset.

Indiana has been held to 0, 7, 7 and 15 points in four of its last five games.  The Hoosiers don't have the offense to get margin, so asking them to cover this 7-point spread is asking a lot.  Rutgers has a very good defense that can hold this Indiana offense in check as well.  

The Scarlet Knights allow 24.9 points per game on the season, while the Hoosiers give up 31.3 points per game.  Rutgers scores 21.3 points per game while Indiana scores 20.3 points per game.  So when you look at the numbers, it's clear Rutgers is the better team this season.  They should not be catching nearly this many points, if any points at all, especially given the favorable motivational situation for them compared to the Hoosiers.

The Scarlet Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Rutgers is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Greg Schiano is 29-13 ATS as a road underdog as a head coach.  Schiano is 16-2 ATS in his last 18 road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +52

Alabama always gets a cupcake out of conference opponent late in the year.  And I almost always fade them in this spot.  I'm going to do it again this year with New Mexico State this week.

Alabama just played a huge rivalry game with LSU last week and struggled to a 20-14 victory.  Now they got Arkansas on deck next week.  They won't be looking to run up the score on New Mexico State as they always seem to take it easy on these opponents that are just looking for a paycheck.

New Mexico State has been one of my favorite teams to back this season.  They have just one win this season but their record has them undervalued.  That's why they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 27 points this season.

I had a really bad beat on the Aggies last week.  They were getting 18.5 points and were up 13-7 on Utah State at halftime.  But they got outscored 26-0 in the 2nd half and failed to cover by 3.5 points.  They squandered several opportunities deep in Utah State territory.  They were only outgained by 110 yards.

In fact, they have only been outgained by more than 110 yards just once in their past eight games.  They have been competitive in the stats due to an offense that has produced at least 345 yards in 8 straight games.  And this offense is capable of putting up a couple scores on this Alabama defense to stay within the number.  And I like that the Aggies are still fresh after having a bye prior to that Utah State game.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games against bad defensive teams that allow 450 or more total yards per game.  The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  Give me the Aggies and all these points against an Alabama team that will be looking to play backups and burn clock in the 2nd half.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

20* Cincinnati/South Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +23.5

You're paying a tax to back the Cincinnati Bearcats because they are 9-0 on the season and trying to make the four-team playoff.  They are feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoff and live up to expectations, and it has shown with their play on the field of late as they have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall while being in three straight dog fights against suspect competition.

Indeed, the Bearcats only beat Navy 27-20 as 28.5-point favorites.  They managed just 271 total yards and were outgained by 37 yards.  Then they had to pull away late to beat Tulane 31-12 as 27.5-point favorites.  They managed just 351 total yards and outgained a 1-8 Tulane team by just 71 yards.  And last week they needed a couple goal line stands to beat Tulsa 28-20 as 22.5-point favorites.  They managed just 390 total yards and were outgained by 56 yards by the Golden Hurricane.

I just don't think Cincinnati can be trusted to keep laying these kinds of big numbers, including this week at South Florida.  Their offense isn't dynamic enough to cover these big numbers, and they keep getting the opponents' best shot.  That will be the case this week for South Florida as they will look at this game as their 'National Championship' as they sit at just 2-7 on the season and won't be going bowling.

South Florida may not have to face Cincinnati star RB Jerome Ford, who has accounted for 1,053 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns.  Either way, I like the Bulls tonight.  They are much better than their 2-7 record would indicate.  They opened 1-4 this season with all four losses to ranked teams, so they have played a brutal schedule and won't be phased by Cincinnati.

The Bulls have since gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and have been competitive in every game.  They only lost 31-32 to Tulsa as 7.5-point dogs, beat Temple 34-14 as 2-point favorites, lost 14-29 at ECU despite only getting outgained by 80 yards and turned it over four times, and lost 42-54 as 13.5-point home dogs to Houston.  That's a Houston team that is playing as well as anyone in the AAC right now.

A very bad South Florida team only lost 7-28 at Cincinnati as 22-point underdogs last year.  They committed five turnovers and were only outgained by 42 yards by the Bearcats, so it was closer than the final score.  In fact, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of the last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 23.5-point spread.  Bet South Florida Friday.

15* Ravens/Dolphins AFC ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -7.5

The Baltimore Ravens have won six of their last seven games overall and should be bigger favorites over the lowly Miami Dolphins tonight.  The Ravens always seem to get better as the season goes on.  And they are coming off a misleading win over the Vikings last week.

The Ravens outgained the Vikings by 182 yards last week and should have won by more.  But they gave up a kickoff return TD which is the only reason it was even close and the only reason they did not cover.  They were also -2 in turnovers.  That misleading final I think actually has them undervalued this week.

Baltimore should still be fresh even coming off an OT game because they had a bye week prior to the Minnesota game.  They face a Miami Dolphins team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week, making this short week even tougher on them.  I don't expect them to handle it well, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa doubtful for this one.

The Dolphins are just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS this season.  They beat the worst team in the NFL in the Texans 17-9 last week despite just 262 total yards with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.  Their other win was a misleading 17-16 win at New England in the opener in which they should have lost while getting outgained by 134 yards.  The Dolphins are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season.

Baltimore is 15-1 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.  The Ravens are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Baltimore is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings with seven wins by 14 points or more.  Take the Ravens Thursday.

20* UNC/Pittsburgh ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and have been one of the most underrated teams in college football.  All seven wins came by 7 points or more including six by double-digits.  Both losses came by a combined 7 points.  They will beat the UNC Tar Heels by a touchdown or more tonight.

It's going to be a great atmosphere in Pittsburgh tonight with the Panthers on the verge of winning the Coastal title.  It will be a bigger home-field advantage than normal.  And the fact of the matter is Pittsburgh is better on both sides of the football, especially defensively.

Kenny Pickett is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 68.7% of his passes with a 29-to-3 TD/INT ratio this season.  He leads a Pittsburgh offense that is averaging 45.0 points, 541.1 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  Pickett and company will have their way with a UNC defense that allows 33.4 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.

UNC has a good offense in averaging 38.9 points and 488.8 yards per game this season.  But the passing game isn't what is was expected to be with Sam Howell, and the Tar Heels have actually had to rely on the run a lot averaging 215 rushing yards per game.  Well, that's not going to work against his Pitt defense.

Pittsburgh only allows 22.7 points, 344.1 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  While you can throw on them a little, you cannot run on them.  The Panthers give up 107 rushing yards per game and just 3.2 yards per carry, which ranks 12th nationally.  Pitt will make UNC one-dimensional, and that will make them much easier to stop.

This is a tough spot for UNC after needing a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat Wake Forest 58-55 as 2.5-point home favorites on Saturday.  Now they have to come back Thursday and try and stop this potent Pitt offense after the defense was just gashed for 615 yards by Wake Forest.  Pitt should score at will in this game and get enough stops to cover this number.

UNC is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a conference win.  The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games off a conference home win.  The Tar Heels are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this season and losing by 12.3 points per game.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their four games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Toledo/Bowling Green OVER 49.5

This is a very low total for a MAC week night game and I don't think it's justified.  So we'll back the OVER and root for yet another shootout in the MAC tonight in a game between two teams that are playing as shootout teams of late.

Toledo is coming off a 52-49 loss to Eastern Michigan last week in which the Rockets gained 672 total yards and somehow lost.  Their defense will be tired from that shootout, but their offense should be ready to hang another big number on Bowling Green tonight.

The OVER is 4-0 in Bowling Green's last four games overall.  They combined for 55 points with Akron, 60 points with Northern Illinois, 79 points with Eastern Michigan and 100 points with Buffalo.  That's why it is shocking to see this total so low tonight.

The Falcons have a better passing game than they get credit for and will need it to try and keep up with Toledo.  Bowling Green has passed for at least 221 yards in seven of their last eight games overall, including at least 235 yards in five straight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Ohio/Eastern Michigan OVER 60

Eastern Michigan has been mighty impressive on offense the last three weeks.  They put up 31 points against Ball State, 55 against Bowling Green and 52 against Toledo.  I think they can virtually almost cover this OVER on their own, but I'm expecting them to get some help, too.

Eastern Michigan QB Ben Bryant is one of the most underrated starters in college football.  He is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,190 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has thrown for at least 286 yards in four of his last five games and will lead this pass-heavy Eagles attack again tonight.

Ohio has scored at least 26 points in each of its last five games.  It is coming off a 35-point effort against a very good Miami Ohio defense last week.  So the Bobcats are capable of matching the Eagles score for score in this one.

Both teams have average to above-average offenses, but both teams definitely have below-average defenses.  Ohio gives up 6.0 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play.  Eastern Michigan gives up 6.0 yards per play against teams that only average 5.3 yards per play.  Both defenses are tired after Ohio gave up 569 yards to Miami last week, while Eastern Michigan allowed 672 yards to Toledo.

The OVER is 6-1 in Bobcats last seven Tuesday games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Eagles last four Tuesday games.  The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards last game.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +26

The Akron Zips are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  The only exception was a blowout loss to Buffalo in which they turned it over four times.  The other three games have been mighty impressive.

Indeed, it started with a 35-20 upset win at Bowling Green as 14-point dogs.  They also covered in a 21-34 loss at Miami Ohio as 20-point dogs.  And last week they covered as 20-point dogs in a 25-31 road loss at Ball State in which they had a chance to win the game on the final drive but fumbled going into the end zone.

Akron did fire their head coach after that loss to Ball State, which wasn't fair.  But I always like backing teams in their first game without their head coach because they tend to rally around one another.  And I expect that to be the case for them tonight as they easily stay within this 26-point spread.

The key to the Zips being more competitive of late is the play of QB Zach Gibson at quarterback.  He is completing 71.9% of his passes with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio and was the main guy in each of their last three covers against Bowling Green, Miami Ohio and Ball State.  Gibson went 24-of-31 passing for 331 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals last week.

I also hate the spot for Western Michigan.  The Broncos are now 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall to fall out of the MAC title chase.  They lost 20-45 outright as a 13.5-point home favorite against Ball State.  They lost 15-34 as a 1.5-point road favorite at Toledo.  And last week they lost 30-42 as a 9-point home favorite against Central Michigan.  

I question this team's focus the rest of the way, especially this week laying 26 points to Akron, which will be very difficult to cover whether they are focused or not.  The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Western Michigan is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight conference games.  Bet Akron Tuesday.

15* Bears/Steelers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers have turned around their season the only way they know how.  There's a reason they have never finished worse than 8-8 under Mike Tomlin because he gets the most out of his players even when things look grim.  And they definitely looked grim after a 1-3 start.

But the Steelers have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS.  They beat the Broncos 27-19 at home, the Seahawks 23-20 at home and the Browns 15-10 on the road in upset fashion.  They were coming off their bye week heading into that Cleveland game and should have won by more.  

They had 370 yards against a good Browns defense and held them to 304 yards, outgaining them by 64 yards.  But they had to settle for too many field goals.  They should still be fresh after that bye and have one of the best looking injury reports in the NFL.  And Big Ben is finding his groove now thanks in large part to a running game that has come around with 115 or more rushing yards in three consecutive games.  This offense is a dangerous one when it has balance.

Now Big Ben should be able to pick apart a Chicago defense that gets shredded every week.  After giving up 38 points and 408 yards to the Bucs two weeks ago in a 38-3 loss, the Bears came back last week and gave up 467 yards and 8.6 yards per play to the 49ers last week in a 33-22 loss that wasn't even as close as the final score.

This is a bad combination for the Bears having a leaky defense and a terrible offense.  They managed just 324 yards and 4.8 yards per play against the 49ers.  They were held to 311 yards against the Bucs, 277 to the Packers, 252 to the Raiders, 373 to the Lions and 47 to the Browns in their previous five games.  Justin Fields just isn't a very good passer, and missing David Montgomery has hurt this team.  

Stopping Chicago's rushing attack will be key, and the Steelers only give up 106 rushing yards per game and are proving they have one of the best defenses in the NFL yet again this year.  The Steelers are primed for one of the best defensive performances of the season against a Chicago offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense.  The next-worst team is at 4.8 yards per play.

Chicago is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 10.8 points per game and getting outscored by 16.0 points per game.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games following a loss.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a home loss.  The Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +2.5

Sunday Update: I got 49ers +2.5 early in the week.  I would still bet them as a 25* up to -3 even if Murray plays due to their other injuries and the situation.  Lower your bet if you can only get -3.5 or worse.

The San Francisco 49ers want revenge from a 17-10 road loss at Arizona a couple weeks ago on October 10th.  They deserved to win that game as they had the ball in Arizona territory the entire game even with Trey Lance at QB.  They outgained the Cardinals by 34 yards and held them to just 304 yards in that game but managed just 10 points.

Now the 49ers have Jimmy G back at QB, and he is coming off his best game of the season.  The 49ers beat the Bears 33-22 last week in what was an even bigger blowout than the final scored showed.  The 49ers had 467 total yards and outgained the Bears by 143 yards and didn't punt once.  They outgained the Bears 8.6 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play in that game.

The Cardinals are overvalued due to their 7-1 start.  I successfully faded them with the Packers last week in a game Green Bay won outright despite missing several key players.  Now it's the Cardinals who could be missing several key players.  They are already without JJ Watt and C Rodney Hudson, and they could be without both QB Kyler Murray and WR De'Andre Hopkins, who are both questionable.  If Murray were to sit the 49ers would definitely be favored.  But I like them either way.

Plays on underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 59-29 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Arizona is 1-8 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  It's regression time for this team that has overachieved in the first half this season.  The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The 49ers are outgaining opponents 6.1 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL this season and shows they are better than their 3-4 record would indicate.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -1

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers.  They went into their bye week coming off a 34-6 loss to the Ravens and many expected them to come out with their hair on fire against the Patriots.  Instead, they also lost to the Patriots 24-27 at home as 3.5-point favorites.

Now we are getting the Chargers at a discount.  This team is much better than they have shown in their last two games.  Remember, they were 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games beating the Chiefs 30-24 on the road, the Raiders 28-14 at home and the Browns 47-42 at home, and that was back when the Browns were healthier.  And the Chargers should still be fresh after having their bye two weeks ago, and they are as healthy as any team in the NFL.

Conversely, it's time 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles.  They are coming off a 44-6 victory over the Lions last week in the biggest blowout of the week.  They did so with just 350 total yards as the Lions just gave that game away.  It was also a flat spot for Jared Goff and the Lions after nearly upsetting the Rams the previous week.  The Eagles took advantage and looked better than they really were.

Remember, the Eagles looked awful the previous two weeks against the Bucs and Raiders.  They were outgained by 186 yards by the Bucs in their misleading 22-28 loss.  They were outgained by 84 yards by the Raiders in their 22-33 road loss in which they had three extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday the previous week.  Philadelphia's three wins have come against Atlanta, Carolina and Detroit.  They aren't very good, and the Chargers are the better of these two teams and we're getting them at basically a pick 'em price.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 points or less are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1983.

Los Angeles is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 road games following a loss by 3 points or less.  The Chargers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. NFC opponents.  Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Los Angeles is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -5.5

I love the spot for the Baltimore Ravens this week.  They are coming off their bye week and a terrible loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.  They will come back refreshed and highly motivated for a victory out of their bye.  It was definitely a more productive bye than most teams because you know they were focused off that 17-41 loss to the Bengals.

That loss to the Bengals was the aberration, not the norm.  The Ravens had gone 5-0 in their previous five games with the last three victories over the Broncos, Colts and Chargers coming by a combined 50 points.  Look for them to get back to their dominant ways against the Minnesota Vikings this week.

The Vikings blew a golden opportunity to get back in the playoff race with their 16-20 home loss to Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys last week.  The Cowboys outgained the Vikings by 141 yards behind a 300-yard passing effort from Rush.  Kirk Cousins was awful as the Vikings went just 1-of-13 on 3rd down and their only play call seemed to be a screen play.  

Cousins cannot stretch the field, and the Ravens play man-to-man defense mostly that is going to take away those short routes.  The Ravens also have the answer for Dalvin Cook.  They give up just 86 rushing yards per game as one of the top run defenses in the NFL.  And Lamar Jackson and company should have a field day against this Minnesota defense that just gave up 418 yards to Rush and the Cowboys.

The Ravens are scoring 26.7 points per game and averaging 417.6 yards per game this season.  They rank 4th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play on offense.  They should be able to do whatever they want to on offense, especially run the football against a Vikings defense that gives up 4.6 yards per carry on the season.

Baltimore is 15-3 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  They seem to get better as the season goes on under John Harbaugh.  The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas -5

I definitely like the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks this week.  They are coming off their bye week.  They basically had two weeks off in a row as they beat Arkansas Pine Bluff 45-3 going into their bye.  So they have had plenty of time to prepare for Mike Leach's Air Raid system.

The Razorbacks have been great at defending these spread offenses under Sam Pittman.  They upset Ole Miss last year and nearly upset them again this year, losing by 1 on the road.  They drop eight into coverage and keep the ball in front of them against these spread teams.

Last year, they went on the road and upset Mississippi State 21-14 as 16.5-point underdogs.  They forced four Mississippi State turnovers.  And I think they turn them over at least a couple times Saturday.  Arkansas only gives up 168 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per attempt this season, so they are built to stop the pass.

And this is the best Razorbacks offense they have had in several years.  They average 32.8 points and 465.3 yards per game this season.  They are averaging 6.6 yards per play against teams that normally allow 5.9 yards per play, so they are exceeding expectations on offense by 0.7 yards per play.  

Defensively they give up just 5.2 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play, so they are holding opponents to 0.7 yards per play below their season average.  They are outgaining teams by 1.4 yards per play overall, which is one of the best marks in all of college football.

To compare, Mississippi State is only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play, basically breaking even on the season.  Mississippi State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off two or more consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs off two straight wins over lowly Vanderbilt and overrated Kentucky.  Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +18.5

New Mexico State has been a big money maker for me and I'm going to continue to ride them as 18.5-point underdogs to Utah State Saturday.  The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and consistently catching too many points on a weekly basis.  Their only non-cover came in a 20-point loss to Hawaii as 17-point dogs.

They have played some great competition during this stretch and hung tough.  They lost by 18 at SDSU as a 31.5-point dogs, by 9 at New Mexico as a 19.5-point dogs, beat South Carolina State by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite, lost by 6 to San Jose State as a 26-point dog, lost by 27 to Nevada as a 28-point dog and lost by 14 to Hawaii in their 2nd meeting as an 18-point dog.

Not only are they covering, but they are playing these teams tough in the stats, too.  The Aggies actually outgained San Diego State by 11 yards, were only outgained by 91 yards by Hawaii in the first meeting and outgained them by 3 yards in the second meeting.  They were only outgained by 80 yards by Nevada and by 19 yards by San Jose State.  So they have only been outgained by more than 91 yards once in their last seven games.

Now the Aggies come in on two weeks' rest after a much-needed bye week following eight games in eight weeks to start the season.  They are primed for a big effort here against a Utah State team that is getting too much respect after winning and covering its last two games against Colorado State and Hawaii.  They were actually outgained by 128 yards in their win over Colorado State, too.

In the three games prior, they barely beat UNLV 2824, lost by 14 to BYU at home and lost by 24 to Boise State at home.  This team has a good offense, which is why they get respect, but their terrible defense is going to keep New Mexico State's underrated offense in this game for four quarters.  The Aggies rank 108th in total defense, giving up 435.1 yards per game.

New Mexico State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  New Mexico State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Mountain West opponents.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take New Mexico State Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +23

It's time to 'sell high' on the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They are 8-0 this season and starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff.  They barely beat Navy 27-20 as 29-point favorites two weeks ago and managed just 271 total yards against the Midshipmen.  Last week they were in a dog fight with lowly Tulane as a 28-point favorite before pulling away 31-12, but only managing 351 total yards.

Now they face a much better Tulsa team here that we want to 'buy low' on due to their 3-5 record.  But Tulsa is way better than that record would indicate.  And they are coming off an upset loss to Navy last week that has them undervalued.

Remember, Tulsa only lost by 5 as a 10.5-point dog at Oklahoma State.  The Golden Hurricane came back the next week and were in a one-score game with Ohio State on the road in the 4th quarter before eventually losing by 21 as a 24.5-point favorite.  They have only lost by more than 21 points once all season.

Amazingly, Tulsa is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games against ranked opponents.  They just have a way of playing up to their level of competition.  Last year, Tulsa only lost 24-27 at Cincinnati as a 13.5-point dog.  They also covered as 15.5-point dogs in a 13-24 loss at Cincinnati the year prior.  Each of the last eight meetings were decided by 19 points or fewer as well.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes this week.  They are coming off two straight upset wins as underdogs over NC State (by 1) and Pittsburgh (by 4) despite giving up 421 yards to NC State and 587 more to Pitt.  They played UNC to a 3-point game the game prior, so they have played in three straight dog fights.  They will run out of gas this week.

Now the Hurricanes go from underdogs to double-digit favorites against Georgia Tech this week, which is a huge overreaction.  This is a letdown spot off the win over a ranked Pitt team if I've ever seen one.  And it's a sandwich spot with rival Florida State on deck next week.  I don't expect anything near Miami's 'A' game this week because of it.

Georgia Tech is highly motivated for a victory.  The Yellow Jackets are coming off a pair of single-digit losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech the last two weeks following their bye.  They still believe they can make a bowl game, and a win here Saturday would be about their only hope.  They will treat this game as their 'National Championship'.

Georgia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Miami with all three games decided by 7 points or fewer.  They won outright as 18-point dogs last year, and they can do the same thing this year given the awful spot for the Hurricanes.  The Yellow Jackets are better than their 3-5 record too as they are outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play on the season.

Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.  They only have one win by more than 4 points all season, and that came against FCS Central Connecticut State as a 44-point favorite.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana Tech +13.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UAB.  The Blazers are 5-3 this season but it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the country.  Their wins have come against Jacksonville State, North Texas, Tulane, FAU and Southern Miss.  And they even just lost outright to Rice as a 24-point favorites while also losing by 24 to Liberty as a favorite and by 49 to Georgia.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Louisiana Tech, which is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  LA Tech lost by 1 to Mississippi State as a 20.5-point dog, but 2 to SMU as an 11-point dog and by 7 to NC State as an 18.5-point dog.  Those three efforts showed what they were capable of, and the last three games have been the aberration.

The Bulldogs are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, which is why it's a good 'buy low' spot.  They lost 19-3 to UTEP which is already bowl eligible.  They lost 16-45 to a UTSA team that is 8-0 this season.  And that game was closer than the final score as the Bulldogs were only outgained by 5 yards against the Roadrunners.  Then last week they outgained Old Dominion by 24 yards in their 23-20 defeat.

Three of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or less, and I expect more of the same here with this game going right down to the wire.  UAB"s offense just isn't good enough to get margin.  They average just 25.9 points per game and 374.5 yards per game.  LA Tech can match them offensively, averaging 25.8 points per game and 383.1 yards per game.  And LA Tech has an above-average defense.

LA Tech is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Skip Holtz is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of the Bulldogs.  Louisiana Tech is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 games as a road underdog.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  UAB is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina -2.5

We have a 4-4 unranked North Carolina team favored over a ranked 8-0 Wake Forest team.  And I think the unranked Tar Heels are favored for good reason.  Remember, this team was ranked in the Top 10 coming into the season.  They have failed to live up to expectations and I think it's a good time to 'buy low' on them.

They are still alive in the Coastal and won't pack it in.  They should be fresh because they had a bye before losing by 10 on the road to Notre Dame last week.  And they won't have a problem getting up for this unbeaten Wake Forest team off that loss to the Fighting Irish.

No question it's impressive what Wake Forest has done this season in getting to 8-0.  But they have done it against the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country.  UNC has faced the much tougher slate.   And the Tar Heels have been at their best at home at 4-1 and outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game.

UNC's stats show they are much better than a 4-4 team, too.  They are outgaining opponents by 85 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.  Those are almost identical numbers to Wake Forest, which is outgaining teams by 74 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.  And when you factor in UNC has played the tougher schedule, I actually believe the Tar Heels are the better team here.

UNC is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  I think UNC plays its best game of the season here Saturday and it will be more than enough to cover this 2.5-point spread against this overrated Wake Forest squad.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Liberty +10

Hugh Freeze is the former coach of Ole Miss.  He will have his players ready as this is Liberty's 'National Championship' game against an SEC opponent.  And the Flames come in fresh after throttling UMass 62-17 last week to improve to 7-2 with both their losses coming by 3 points each.

Ole Miss is the team in the awful spot.  The Rebels will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after facing Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn with each of the last four games decided by 14 points or fewer.  They were in a lot of dog fights, and now they step out of conference this week before taking on Texas A&M next week.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them.  They won't get up for Liberty at all stepping out of conference here.

Ole Miss was already missing its best receiver in Jonathan Mingo to a season-ending injury.  Now they could be without both Dontario Drummond (40 receptions, 658 yards, 7 TD) and Braylen Sanders (13 receptions, 309 yards, 3 TD), who are each questionable.  QB Matt Corral is expected to play but is battling an ankle injury.

Meanwhile, Liberty comes in fully healthy and ready to match this Ole Miss offense score for score.  The Flames average 37.4 points per game and 444.7 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  They give up just 17.8 points per game, 300.0 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.1 yards per play.  Malik Willis is one of the best QB's in the country that you have never heard of.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 21-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for a team-high 684 yards and 9 scores.

The Flames are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall.   Liberty is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.  The Flames are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.  

20* VA Tech/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 47.5

Boston College has been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing starting QB Phil Jurkovec early in the season.  The Eagles are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall, combining with Clemson for 32 points, NC State for 40 points, Louisville for 42 points and Syracuse for 27 points.

This total of 47.5 is set way too high Friday night.  Boston College has been held to just 10.0 points per game in its last four games.  Virginia Tech's defense is elite again this season, and it will shut down the Eagles too.  The Hokies allow just 22.4 points per game on the season.

The problem for the Hokies is not defense, but offense.  They average just 24.0 points per game and 349.9 yards per game.  Boston College does have a good defense that gives up just 20.8 points per game this season and should be able to hold the Hokies in check as well.

Both teams rely heavily on the run, which should keep the clock moving.  The Hokies average 40 rushing attempts per game, while the Eagles average 38 rushing attempts per game.  Both teams aren't great at stopping the run, so look for both teams to run it even more than normal in this one.

Boston College is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off three straight conference losses.  The UNDER is 6-2 in all Boston College games this season.  The UNDER is 6-2 in all Virginia Tech games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Jets/Colts AFC Thursday No-Brainer on New York +10.5

The Indianapolis Colts can't be favored by double-digit against almost anyone.  Carson Wentz cannot be trusted to make the right throws.  Their best bet it to run it 40 times a game with Johnathan Tayor, but they refuse to do it.

The Colts are coming off yet another devastating overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans in a game that would have gotten them back in the AFC South race.  Now they are tired on a short week here and having to face a New York Jets team that is undervalued and coming in with confidence and feeling good about themselves.

The Jets beat the Bengals 34-31 last week as 11.5-point underdogs and should have won by even more.  They racked up 511 total yards against the Bengals and held them to just 318 yards, outgaining them by nearly 200 yards.  But they did commit three turnovers to keep the Bengals in the game.

Still, no starting debut for a QB could have gone any better than the one for Mike White against the Bengals.  White went 37-of-45 passing for 405 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  Michael Carter emerged as the lead back as a rookie, rushing for 77 yards and a score while also catching nine balls for 95 yards.  This young team is looking forward to this opportunity on a National TV stage to showcase what they are capable of now with White running the show.

While the injury news is looking up on the Jets' front, the Colts suffered some more key injuries against the Titans last week.  T.Y. Hilton suffered a concussion and left the game and will be out for this one.  Wentz was terrible after he left.  DT Tyquon Lewis suffered a season-ending knee injury as well.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

15* Georgia State/Louisiana ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Georgia State +12.5

Louisiana has a way of playing to its level of competition.  There was an exception last week when they beat Texas State 45-0, but the Bobcats lost their QB in that game and weren't the same after keeping it close early with him.  Now the Rajin Cajuns come back overvalued off that blowout win.

Let's just look at some of their performances earlier this season.  They have wins over Nicholls State by 3 as 25.5-point favorties, GA Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12.5-point favorites, and Arkansas State by 1 as 18-point favorites.  They have a huge game on deck against Troy and could be looking ahead to that as well.

Georgia State comes in playing its best football of the season.  The Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Louisiana Monroe by 34 as 16-point favorites, Texas State by 12 as 10-point favorites and Georgia Southern by 7 as 6-point favorites.  They have the confidence to take give Louisiana a run for its money tonight.

The Panthers returned 19 starters from a team that took Louisiana to the wire last season in a 31-34 loss as 17-point underdogs.  I think they can stay within two touchdowns in the rematch tonight.  I like their run defense, which gives up 4.0 yards per carry against teams that normally average 4.6 yards per carry, so they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per carry below their season averages.  They also have a great rushing attack of their own that averages 224 yards per game and 5.0 per carry to shorten the game and control time of possession.

Louisiana is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Georgia State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  Take Georgia State Thursday.

20* CMU/WMU ESPNU No-Brainer on Central Michigan +10

Central Michigan just has a way of playing in close games, and I think we are getting some value with them here as double-digit underdogs to Western Michigan.  The Chippewas have played eight games this season with six decided by 11 points or fewer.  The only exceptions were their 28-point loss at LSU and their 45-point win over FCS Robert Morris.

I don't see how Western Michigan can be trusted to be laying double-digits here considering they have lost two of their last three games in blowout fashion outright as favorites.  They lost 34-15 at Toledo as 1.5-point favorites and 20-45 at home to Ball State as 13.5-point favorites.  I want no part of them as a double-digit favorite.

Central Michigan has the 29th-best offense in the country in averaging 449.5 yards per game with a tremendous balance of 288 passing yards per game and 161.5 rushing yards per game.  Their offense will keep them in this game for four quarters.  Western Michigan relies heavily on the run at 182.9 rushing yards per game, and Central Michigan has been good at stopping the run in giving up 139.1 rushing yards per game.

The Chippewas are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 November games.  The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  Western Michigan is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio +8

The Ohio Bobcats have been very competitive of late after a tough start to the season.  They have gone just 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  All three losses came by 7 points or less to Central Michigan (by 3), Buffalo (by 1) and Kent State (by 7).  If they lose this game to Miami (Ohio) then I expect it to be by 7 points or fewer as well.

The Bobcats were even in yardage against Kent State, only -53 yards against Buffalo and -92 yards against Central Michigan.  Those are three teams that are on par with Miami (Ohio), which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Redhawks aren't a team that can be trusted to lay a big number like this because they have a lackluster offense.

Indeed, the Redhawks are scoring just 21.1 points per game this season.  Even their defense has taken a step back this year in allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.6 yards per play.  Ohio averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and has been good on that side of the ball.  They give up 5.9 yards per play on defense, so not far behind Miami, which also averages 5.7 yards per play on offense.

Ohio is also playing with double-revenge after losing to Ohio 24-21 and 30-28 the last two meetings, both games that went down to the wire like this one will.  In fact, Miami (Ohio) hasn't beaten Ohio by more than 3 points in any of the last 14 meetings, making for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Bobcats pertaining to this 8-point spread.  Bet Ohio Tuesday.

15* Giants/Chiefs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -9.5

This line opened at Chiefs -13 this week and has been bet all the way down to -9.5.  It's now time to pull the trigger on the Chiefs in a game I fully expect them to win by double-digits.  This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Chiefs and 'sell high' spot on the Giants.

The Chiefs are coming off a shocking 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week.  They will be playing with their hair on fire after that embarrassing defeat.  The Giants are coming off an upset win over the Panthers 25-3 last week.  They will be feeling a little fat and happy after that performance.

The Chiefs have owned the NFC East this season.  They beat the Eagles 42-30 on the road and Washington 31-13 on the road.  The Giants aren't better than either of those two teams.  Now the Chiefs get to face an NFC East team at home here and should crush it.  Daniel Jones won't be able to match Patrick Mahomes score for score, just as Taylor Heineke and Jalen Hurts came up short as well.

The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC opponents.  Andy Reid is 8-1 ATS in Monday Night Football games as the coach of Kansas City.  New York is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing less than 15 points last game.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

20* Cowboys/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -2.5

I was going to be on the Vikings before the news that Dak Prescott is unlikely to play came out Thursday.  And now I'm jumping on this 2.5-point spread thinking if Prescott doesn't play this line will close a lot higher.  And I like the Vikings to win by a field goal or more either way so it will be a bonus if he doesn't play.

The Vikings are 3-3 this season but very close to being 6-0.  They lost in OT on the road to the Bengals after a fumble when they were in FG range to win.  They missed an extra point and a short FG at the buzzer in a 33-34 loss at Arizona, and that loss looks a lot better now with the Cardinals off to a 7-0 start.  And they scored on their opening drive against the Browns but didn't score again in their 14-7 loss, and that was a healthy Browns team that was playing well.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys.  They are the only team in the NFL that has covered every spread with a perfect 6-0 ATS record.  But they have had a lot of turnover luck go their way as they have forced at least two turnovers in every game and 14 in six games overall.  That is unsustainable.

The Cowboys still have a terrible defense that will get exposed here against this elite Minnesota offense.  Dallas gives up 381 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  They rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed.  The Vikings are 17th in in defensive yards per play at 5.6 to compare.

This Minnesota offense averages 24.5 points and 414 yards per games to go along with 5.9 yards per play.  Dalvin Cook is back in the fold, and Kirk Cousins is playing well.  He is completing 69.5% of his passes with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  And he won't have to try and match Dak Prescott score for score if he doesn't play.

Minnesota was a dominant home team under Mike Zimmer prior to the last two years due to the design of the stadium.  It is loud and very tough for opponents.  But not having fans last year makes us throw last year out.  And they are 2-1 at home this season with their only loss to the Browns.

Minnesota is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 home games after a win by 6 points or less.  Dallas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in the last six home meetings.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Texans +14.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Houston Texans this week after losing six straight and going 1-4 ATS in their five games since losing QB Tyrod Taylor to injury.  The Texans looked great with Taylor in the first 1.5 games at QB, and now he is expected to make his much-anticipated return from a hamstring injury this week.

We'll gladly take the 14.5 points at home with the Texans.  They were last seen at home nearly upsetting the Patriots as 8-point dogs in a 22-25 loss even with Davis Mills at QB.  The other three games were all tough road losses to the Bills, Colts and Cardinals.  Having Taylor back will allow them to stay within this massive spread against the Rams.

Los Angeles was in a dog fight with the Detroit Lions last week in a 28-19 home win.  That's a Detroit team that is not any better than the Texans with Taylor.  And it was an emotional game for Matthew Stafford against his former team.  Now this is a letdown spot for the Rams, who probably feel like they just have to show up to win.  It's also a 1:00 EST game which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Rams.

Taylor is completing 70.5% of his passes for 416 yards with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his six quarters of action this season.  He has also rushed for 55 yards and a score.  He just brings a much needed dimension to this offense that Davis Mills lacked.  He will keep the offense on the field for longer stretches, and that will help this defense get some rest, which it hasn't had much of with Mills under center.

The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring 14 points or fewer in two straight games.  Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

25* AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -113

The Colts will be out for revenge from a 25-16 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season.  They have been a different team since that loss.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only loss came in overtime against the Ravens on the road after blowing a 19-point lead.

They beat the Dolphins by 10 on the road, the Texans by 28 at home and the 49ers by 12 on the road.  Carson Wentz is playing some of the best football of his career, and the Colts are getting healthier by the week.

I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans.  They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bills and Chiefs.  That 27-3 win over the broken Chiefs last week has them overvalued.  The Titans could be missing both starting tackles on the offensive line and their injury list is ugly.

Slowing down Derrick Henry is the key to slowing down the Titans.  The Colts have a pretty good run defense in giving up just 111 rushing yards per game.  The Titans have a weak defense this season that gives up nearly 380 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.

The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Colts are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after two straight wins by 10 points or more.  Tennessee is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog.  The Colts are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indianapolis is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State/SDSU OVER 44

The books have set this number too low based off of what San Diego State has been doing in recent weeks.  The UNDER is 3-0 in SDSU's last three games overall.  But all three games came against running teams in New Mexico (34 attempts), SJSU (42 attempts) and Air Force (48 attempts).

Fresno State will not oblige.  The Bulldogs will put up some points and attack this San Diego State defense through the air, which is their biggest weakness.  The Bulldogs average 35.6 points, 479.6 yards per game and 341 passing yards per game on 40 attempts per game.  They will get their points, and San Diego State will be forced to try and get theirs too to keep up with them.

The Aztecs have been able to get their points this season, too, especially at home.  They are scoring 31.0 points per game overall and 35.0 points per game at home.  You can definitely score on this Fresno State defense, and the Aztecs should come close to their season average.  They combine to average nearly 66 points per game on offense.  So they can fall well short of that and still get this OVER 44 with ease.

The OVER is 8-2 in Bulldogs last 10 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +7

I like this Louisville team a lot.  They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points.  And the schedule has not been easy.  I cashed Louisville as a free pick in a 28-14 win over Boston College last week.

They dominated that game and won by 14 despite committing four turnovers.  They outgained Boston College by 172 yards.  They have been competitive in every game outside of the opener against Ole Miss.  And it turns out Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country.

NC State could easily suffer a hangover from that 1-point loss to Miami last week.  Louisville has an elite offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 1,684 yards and eight touchdowns, while also rushing for 480 yards and being tied for the national league in rushing touchdowns (13).  His dual-threat ability will be a handful for this NC State defense.

NC State is 0-10 ATS against good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last three seasons.  Take Louisville Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas +30.5

Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Their offense just isn't up to par compared to years' past for the Cowboys.  And that's why despite being 6-1 they haven't won a single game by more than 11 points this season, and that includes their 23-16 win over Missouri State.  They should not be laying 30.5 points to Kansas with that offense this week.

Kansas nearly upset Oklahoma last week.  The Jayhawks got screwed by the refs as they stopped the Sooners on 4th and 1 down 5 with a chance to get the ball back and win the game.  But the refs didn't rule forward progress stopped, and a fluky handoff from the RB back to the QB got the Sooners the first down.

Kansas is going to keep battling under first-year head coach Lance Leipold, who was one of the sneakiest coaching hires in the offseason.  They continue to improve and have found their quarterback.  Jason Bean completed 17-of-23 passes for 246 yards, while also rushing for 59 yards in the 23-35 loss to Oklahoma last week.  He'll be able to make enough plays against this Oklahoma State defense to keep the Jayhawks within four touchdowns.

Oklahoma State opened 6-0 but then suffered that dream crushing loss to Iowa State on the road last week.  Their chances of making the four-team playoff is basically out the door now, and I expect them to suffer a 'hangover' here against Kansas.  They probably feel like they can just show up and win this game, and they'll just be going through the motions in practice all week.  It will carry over into a flat effort Saturday.

The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning four or five of their last six games.  Plays on underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (Kansas) - after four ore more consecutive losses in Weeks 5 through 9 are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Kansas Saturday.

15* FSU/Clemson ACC ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +9.5

The Florida State Seminoles have turned around their season by going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  The 35-25 win at North Carolina as 17.5-point dogs showed their potential.  And they basically had a bye last week, beating UMass 59-3 which allowed them to empty their bench and keep players fresh for this week's showdown with Clemson.

Clemson has been the biggest money burner in college football.  They are good by name only, not by the product they put on the field.  Clemson is 4-3 SU & 0-7 ATS this season.  Their offense is broken, scoring 21 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season.  The only exception was against FCS South Carolina State.  Their lackluster offense is going to make it tough to beat Florida State by double-digits.

Don't be surprised to see Clemson just go through the motions the rest of the way.  They already have three losses overall and two losses within the conference, so they won't be going to the four-team playoff and likely don't even have a chance to win the ACC.  And I don't think they care much about it, either.

This is Florida State's 'Super Bowl'.  The Seminoles will be highly motivated to end a five-game losing streak to Clemson in this head-to-head series, and this is their best chance in years to put an end to it.  The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Plays on any team (Florida State) - an excellent rushing team that averages at least 4.8 yards per carry against a team that rushes for 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 200 or more yards are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +6.5

It's time to 'sell high' on Syracuse.  The Orange are coming off an upset win at Virginia Tech to improve to 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS this season.  Now they come back as 6.5-point favorites against Boston College this week after being underdogs in seven of their eight games this season with the lone exception being against FCS Albany.

In fact, Syracuse is now favored for the first time over an FBS opponent in two years.  Not only are they favored, they would have to win this game by 7-plus points to beat us to get the cover.  Their offense just isn't good enough to get margin.  Each of their last five games were decided by 5 points or fewer either way.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Boston College coming off three straight losses against three very good teams in Louisville, NC State and Clemson.  They beat Missouri the game prior.  They did have a bye three weeks ago so they are still fresh.  And Syracuse if the tired team here playing for a 9th consecutive week to start the season.  That's a huge factor in this game.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Eagles are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs.  Syracuse is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  Take Boston College Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami +9.5

Miami has some momentum after a season-saving win in a 31-30 upset victory over a very good NC State team last week.  Freshman QB Tyler Van Dyke got huge praise from head coach Manny Diaz after the game, and rightfully so.  He completed 25-of-33 passes for 325 yards and four touchdowns against a great NC State defense.

Now the Hurricanes have their sights set on Pittsburgh, a team that is coming off one of the biggest wins in program history in a 27-17 victory over Clemson last week.  But that was a big win in name only as Clemson is way down this season.  And I look for the Panthers to suffer a letodwn this week, and it's a great time to 'sell high' on them after their 6-1 ATS start.

Miami has simply owned Pitt, going 17-3 SU in the last 20 meetings.  The Panthers always seem to struggle with their athletes and will again in this matchup.  Miami only lost by 2 to Virginia and by 3 to UNC in its two games prior to the win over NC State, so they have been playing well for weeks but just coming up short.  This game is likely to be decided by one score, too.

The Hurricanes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off an upset win as an underdog, including 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off an upset win over a conference opponent.  Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as road underdogs.  Pittsburgh is 10-22-1 ATS in its last 33 games as a home favorite.  Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Pittsburgh.  The Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa +3.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are a tired team right now playing for a 6th consecutive week with their last five games coming against Notre Dame, Michigan, Illinois, Army and Purdue.  Now they have to face a physical Iowa team and it's a tough spot for them because of it.

Meanwhile, Iowa is fresh and prepared coming off its bye week following its first loss of the season against Purdue.  The bye couldn't have come at a better time because it gives the Hawkeyes time to get healthy after playing seven straight weeks to start the season.  It also makes it much easier to get over that 'dream crusher' type of loss to the Boilermakers.  They can get back to focusing on just winning the West and beating Wisconsin here.

Iowa doesn't make mistakes, and Wisconsin does.  The Badgers have committed 17 turnovers this season.  Iowa has forced 21 turnovers.  At some point, turnovers aren't luck with certain teams, and Iowa is a team you can trust every year to win the turnover battle more times than not.  Wisconsin's Graham Mertz is awful and cannot be trusted to take care of the ball as he's shown time and time again this year.

This is a rare case where a Top 10 team is an underdog to an unranked team.  Well, the last 10 times this has happened, the Top 10 underdog has gone 9-1 ATS.  So I think we are definitely getting value here on the Hawkeyes at +3.5, especially in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal with the lowest total of the season at 36 points.  This has 20-17 written all over it.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Iowa) - in conference games off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite are 51-19 (72.9%) ATS since 1992.  Kirk Ferentz is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse as the coach of the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas State +21

It's time to 'sell high' on Louisiana-Lafayette after six straight victories.  They just play to their level of competition.  They have wins over Nicholls State by 3 as 25.5-point favorties, GA Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12.5-point favorites, and Arkansas State by 1 as 18-point favorites.

Texas State is more than capable of staying within three touchdowns of Louisiana and likely taking this game down to the wire.  The Bobcats are just 2-5 this season but four of those losses came by 12 points or less.  That includes their 9-point loss to Baylor, which looks like a very good loss at this point.

Texas State has a decent up-tempo offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number.  And this is the best Bobcats defense they have had in recent memory.  They allow a respectable 422 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play, so it's at least an average defense this year.

Louisiana had a great team last year and only beat Texas State 44-34 as a 16.5-point favorite.  Now they come back as 21-point favorites in the rematch, which is too much.  Lafayette is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following six or more consecutive wins.  The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Texas State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards last game.  Louisiana is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  Roll with Texas State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -1.5

Rutgers wore down playing seven straight weeks to start the season and a gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule.  They went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS to open Big Ten play before having their bye last week.  Now they come back refreshed and ready to try and make a bowl game by getting three more wins the rest the way.

They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season and take a big step down in class here against Illinois.  It's a massive letdown spot for the Fighting Illini.  They are coming off that crazy 9-OT road win at Penn State last week as 24.5-point dogs.  I expect them to still be tired and to fall flat on their faces at home this week against Rutgers.

It's a great matchup for the Scarlet Knights.  Illinois averages 184 rushing yards per game but just 139 passing.  Rutgers has been great against the run.  They give up just 4.0 yards per carry against teams that normally average 5.1 yards per carry.  So they are holding their opponents to 1.1 yards per carry below their season average.

Illinois is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games with a total of 42 or less.  The Scarlet Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  Rutgers is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* UNLV/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +20

UNLV is way undervalued right now due to its 0-7 record.  But this team has come close to winning several times with five losses by one score.  They could easily have a winning record right now.  But because of that record, we are catching 20 points with them in this rivalry game with Nevada.

This game means a lot more to UNLV than it does to Nevada this year.  The Wolf Pack are coming off a 32-34 loss to Fresno State that could easily cost them the conference title.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat.  UNLV also played Fresno tough, only losing 30-38 on the road.

I like the spot for the Rebels.  This is their 'Super Bowl'.  They are also the fresher team and come in on seven days' rest after playing last Thursday.  Nevada only comes in on five days' rest after playing Fresno late Saturday night.

UNLV is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 18 points or less, including three by one score.  The Rebels are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* Packers/Cardinals FOX No-Brainer on Green Bay +6.5

This line has gotten out of hand with the news that Devante Adams and Allen Lazard are out for the Packers.  It has ballooned from Packers +3 to Packers +6.5, which is too big of an adjustment.  There's now value to pull the trigger on the Packers Thursday night.

Quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers are a dime a dozen.  He is capable of making his receivers better than they are.  And I think he'll welcome the challenge here of trying to hand the Arizona Cardinals their first loss of the season without those two.  Plus, the Packers are 6-0 the last three seasons without Adams and scoring 32.8 points per game, so they have had no problem scoring in his absence.

The Cardinals are already overvalued due to their perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS record this season.  It's time to 'sell high' on them here Thursday night against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Packers.  You could argue that Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league, and getting him as this big of a dog is very enticing.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Arizona) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent that is coming off four straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.

Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.  Arizona is 1-11 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game.  The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games as home favorites.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* Troy/Coastal Carolina ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy +17

Coastal Carolina just suffered the type of dream crushing loss that could wreck their season, at least for a week.  They had dreams of making a New Year's 6 Bowl likely taken away from them with their 27-30 road loss at Appalachian State last week.

That game wasn't even as close as the final score as they were outgained by 229 yards and gave up 575 total yards to the Mountaineers.  Now they have to come back a week later and try and get back up off the mat to face Troy.  I don't think they will be fully focused, and I think there will be a hangover effect from that defeat.

Troy is 4-3 this season and has been competitive in every game with its largest loss coming by 13 points.  That includes an 8-point loss to Liberty, which is a team on Coastal Carolina's level.  I think the Trojans can stay within this big number just as they did last season.

The Trojans will be playing with double-revenge after losing 35-36 to Coastal Carolina in 2019 and 38-42 as 12-point dogs last year, two losses by a combined 5 points.  Troy also has the benefit of coming off a bye week with their last game coming two Saturday's ago.  So they have had nearly two full weeks to rest and prepare for the Chanticleers.

The forecast is going to help us here, too.  There is nearly a 100% chance of rain Thursday night with winds gusting between 20-30 MPH.  That's going to make both teams have to run the football.  And Troy has been elite at stopping the run.  They only give up 95 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry this season.  Coastal gives up 144 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry.  Points will be hard to come by, which favors the big dog here.

Troy is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams who force 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Troy Thursday.

15* Saints/Seahawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +4

The Seattle Seahawks are playing to save their season tonight.  At 2-4 they need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive.  I think we get a big effort from them in front of a hostile crowd in Seattle.

Geno Smith has actually looked pretty good in replacing Russell Wilson.  The Seahawks had a chance to beat the Rams even without Wilson in the second half.  They also had a chance to beat the Steelers in a 20-23 road loss.  Smith is completing 67.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception.

I think the Saints are getting too much respect from the books due to coming off their bye week.  But you just can't trust Jameis Winston to go on the road and cover a 4-point spread here in a hostile environment in Seattle.

The Saints have terrible stats this season.  They are averaging just 295.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 354.0 yards per game on defense, so they are getting outgained by 58.8 yards per game.  They are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.  The Seahawks have good numbers from a YPP perspective, outgaining opponents by 0.4 YPP on the season.

The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU loss.  Seattle is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as underdogs.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Seahawks Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +18

It's time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals.  They're the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0.  They are coming off three straight huge wins over the Rams, 49ers and Browns.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for them with the perceived worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans coming to town.

Plus, the Cardinals have another huge game with the Green Bay Packers on deck Thursday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.  They will also be playing this game just to get a win and get out of the game healthy for that Packers game.  They won't be looking to run up the score.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Texans after five consecutive losses.  I actually like what I have seen from this Houston offense the last two weeks despite the scoreboard results.  They had 360 yards and outgained the Patriots by 8 yards two weeks ago in their 22-25 loss.  They had 353 yards against the Colts last week, but just 3 points, which should be impossible.  That misleading 31-3 loss where they were only outgained by 35 yards has this number inflated with an 18-point spread this week.

Arizona is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games.  They got to play against two banged-up offenses the last two weeks in the 49ers and Browns.  The Cardinals are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles +3

I think most the country was shocked to see the Raiders win 34-24 at Denver as 5-point underdogs last week.  With all the John Gruden turmoil surrounding the team it was hard to know what to expect, so I stayed away from that game.

But teams always seem to have a big effort in that first game with a new head coach.  The Raiders rallied around each other.  They also got some help with four turnovers from the Broncos.  It was an injury-ravaged Broncos team that still managed 421 yards against their soft defense.

I think it's time to fade the Raiders this week in their 2nd game back without Gruden.  They won't be nearly as motivated as they were last week.  The motivated team will be the Eagles, who have lost four of their last five and are playing for their season.  But you won't find a harder 5-game stretch all season than the one Philadelphia just faced.

The five games came against the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs.  They gave the Bucs all they wanted last Thursday in a 22-28 home loss.  And now the Eagles have had an extra three days to get ready for this game.  They come in as healthy as they have been all season.  Jalen Hurts and all that speed on offense should shred this terrible Raiders defense that is giving up 24 PPG.

The Raiders are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 games as favorites.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They are coming off three straight one-score losses against some pretty good competition in the Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings.  Now they are only 3-point favorites against the lowly New York Giants.

The Giants are off to yet another 1-5 start this season.  The last two losses weren't even close as they lost by 24 to the Cowboys and 27 to the Rams.  No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Giants.  They have 22 players on the injury report with 17 out and five questionable.  They are missing a ton of weapons on offense, and Daniel Jones isn't right, either.

The Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Giants are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  The Giants are an easy team to figure out.  They consistently get too much respect at home and not enough on the road.  They have almost zero home-field advantage with the way the fans feel about this team right now.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +18

The New Mexico State Aggies have been covering machines.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and still somehow flying under the radar.  Their only non-cover came in a 21-41 home loss to this same Hawaii team as 16.5-point dogs.

Now the Aggies are catching 18 points in the rematch and will be out for revenge.  There's reason to believe they can keep this close and possibly pull off the upset.  The Aggies actually gained 401 yards in that 21-41 loss and were only outgained by 91 yards.  They have been outgained by 91 or fewer yards in five of their last six games overall despite playing some tough competition like Nevada, Hawaii, SJSU and San Diego State, which they actually outgained.

Hawaii is 3-4 this season with its three wins coming against New Mexico State by 20, Portland State by 14 and Fresno State by 3.  The Rainbow Warriors lost by 34 to UCLA, by 18 to Oregon State, by 7 to SJSU and by 17 to Nevada.

The Aggies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  New Mexico State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents.  The Rainbow Warriors are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as home favorites.  Hawaii is 16-37 ATS in its last 53 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rainbow Warriors are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 home games.  Roll with New Mexico State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -25

The Alabama Crimson Tide need style points now after losing to Texas A&M.  They just beat Mississippi State 49-9 on the road last week.  That's why I'm willing to lay the -25 with them this week as they host the Tennessee Volunteers.  There's also another key reason I'm willing to lay it.

Tennessee is a very tired team.  They will be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  They just had to face 101 plays against Ole Miss' high-powered offense last week.  They gave up 510 yards to the Rebels.  Now Alabama will score at will against their tired, banged up defense.

The Crimson Tide are putting up 45.0 points per game this season.  If they get to their season average like I think they will, they are going to cover this number.  I don't see Tennessee getting to 20 points.  They still don't know if starting QB Hendon Hooker is going to play, and I don't think it matters much.  But if they have to go to backup Joe Milton it's going to get real ugly and would be a bonus for us.

The Volunteers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Alabama is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings winning by 31, 22, 37, 38 and 39 points.  Take Alabama Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana Tech +6.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the UTSA Roadrunners.  They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season to make backers a lot of money.  But it has come against the 131st-ranked schedule in the country.

Louisiana Tech has played the 78th-ranked schedule.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after their 2-4 start and coming off an ugly 19-3 loss to UTEP.  But they could easily be 4-2 instead of 2-4.  They only lost by 1 to Mississippi State as 20.5-point dogs.  They lost on a hail mary to SMU by 2 as 11-point dogs.  And they only lost by 7 at NC State as 18.5-point dogs.  

Those three teams are all better than anything UTSA has faced.  The seven wins have come against the likes of Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, WKU and Rice.  And keep in mind four of those wins came by one score, so they are very fortunate to be 7-0.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Louisiana Tech) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game in the second half of the season are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  LA Tech is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS loss.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA -1

The UCLA Bruins are 5-2 this season with their only losses coming to Fresno State and Arizona State.  Four of their five wins have come by double-digits.  I think they are the better team here than Oregon and should be more than a 1-point home favorite.

The Bruins have some great numbers.  They are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally only allow 5.4 yards per play.  They are giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense against teams that normally allow 5.8 yards per play.  Their improvement on defense has been a big reason they are so good this year, and they boast an offense that rushes for 220 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.

Oregon has gotten too much respect ever since its upset win at Ohio State.  The Ducks are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  The Ducks were actually outgained by 42 yards by awful Arizona and were fortunate to win that game forcing five turnovers.  They were upset at 8.5-point favorites at Stanford.  And they only beat Cal by 7 as 13.5-point favorites.  They are missing their best RB in CJ Verdell, and QB Anthony Brown is not as good as advertised.

The Bruins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game.  The Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference games.  Finally, UCLA wants revenge from a tough 35-38 road loss to Oregon last year.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +24

Northwestern always seems to get better as the season goes along under Pat Fitzgerald.  There have been numerous instances where they got off to a slow start and rallied in the Big Ten schedule.  And that appears to be the case again this season.

After a 2-3 start, Northwestern came back from its bye a different team last week.  The Wildcats beat Rutgers 21-7, outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 180 yards.  They held them to just 222 total yards and have a good defense.  That defense should carry them to a cover here against Michigan in what I expect to be an ugly-low-scoring Big Ten game.

Michigan is overvalued due to its 6-0 start and #6 National Ranking.  Yes, the Wolverines are coming off their bye week, but some bye weeks are better than others.  They had momentum and now that momentum is gone with this bye week.  

They were probably feeling fat and happy over the last 2 weeks instead of hungry due to their 6-0 record and Top 10 ranking.  I expect them to be flat against Northwestern Saturday.  Even if they're not, it's going to take a perfect game for them to cover this 24-point spread, and I'm willing to bet against it.

The Wildcats are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 road games.  Northwestern is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games as a road underdog.  The Wolverines are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Memphis/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis -2

The UCF Knights are an absolute mess since losing QB Dillon Gabriel.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Even in their lone win during this stretch they beat a bad ECU team 20-16 at home and were outgained in the game.

The Knights also lost by 35 at Cincinnati last week.  They were upset by Navy as 14.5-point favorites and outgained by 80 yards by the Midshipmen.  They were also outgained by 81 yards in their loss to Louisville.

Memphis has some impressive showings coming into this one.  They deserved to beat Tulsa on the road but lost despite gaining 614 yards and outgaining the Golden Hurricane by 198 yards.  They beat Navy by 18 last time out and outgained them by 174 yards, the same Navy team that upset UCF and outgained them by 80 yards.

The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games.  The Knights are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  UCF is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  The Knights are 0-7 ATS after playing their last game on the road.  Bet Memphis Friday.

15* Broncos/Browns NFL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 40.5

This is a very low total for any NFL game.  But it's definitely low considering the circumstances with the short week that always favors the offenses with less time to prepare.  And the fact that these teams aren't familiar with one another being a non-divisional game.

I know both teams have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, especially the Browns on offense.  But I think Case Keenum isn't that much of a downgrade from Baker Mayfield, especially the Mayfield we saw last week on a bum shoulder.

Cleveland's defense is terrible and tired.  The Browns gave up 47 points and 493 yards to the Chargers two weeks ago and another 37 points to the Cardinals last week.  The Broncos haven't been much better of late defensively.  They gave up 27 points and 391 yards to the Steelers two weeks ago and 34 points and 446 yards to the Raiders last week.

The OVER is 4-1 in Browns last five home games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Browns last six against AFC opponents.  The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games following a loss.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* College Football Thursday No-Brainer on Charlotte +7

The Charlotte 49ers are 4-2 this season with their only losses both coming on the road to Georgia State and Illinois.  They beat Duke at home and are 3-0 at home while outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game.  I like the value we are getting with the 49ers as 7-point home dogs to Florida Atlantic here.

FAU is 3-3 this season with all three wins coming at home against weak competition in Georgia Southern, Fordham and Florida International.  The Owls are 0-3 on the road and losing by 20.6 points per game.  They are only scoring 11.7 points per game on the highway.

Last year FAU beat Charlotte 21-17 at home despite getting outgained 396 to 315, or by 81 yards.  I like the 49ers' chances of getting revenge here with the outright upset, but there's certainly value in taking the 7 points.

The 49ers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games.  The Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Charlotte Thursday.

20* Coastal Carolina/Appalachian State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Coastal Carolina -4

Coastal Carolina is even better than they were last year, which is saying something.  They returned basically everyone with 19 starters back and their talent has shown with a 6-0 start this season that has seen them win those six games by an average of 33.8 points per game.

The Chanticleers boast an offense that is putting up 48.8 points per game and 552.3 yards per game.  Grayson McCall is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 79.8% of his passes for 1,478 yards with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for two scores.  Coastal Carolina's defense only gives up 15.0 points per game and 281.8 yards per game.

Appalachian State is finally down a little this season.  The Mountaineers are 4-2 and were fortunate to come from behind to beat Marshall.  They hung tough against an overrated Miami team.  But their 13-41 loss last week to Louisiana-Lafayette was a disaster.  They turned the ball over four times and have had at least one turnover in all six games.  They were held to 211 yards and outgained by 244 yards by the Rajin' Cajuns.

Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State 34-23 at home last year.  And this Coastal Carolina team is better than last year's version, while the Mountaineers aren't as good as they were last year.  The Mountaineers have three running backs on the injury report, which is putting a lot of pressure on QB Chase Brice to make plays.  He has an 8-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season.  I'll take McCall over Brice all day.

The scheduling spot favors the Chanticleers, too.  They are coming off their bye week, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers are basically on normal rest after losing to Louisiana-Lafayette last Tuesday.

Coastal Carolina is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Chanticleers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Coastal Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mountaineers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Appalachian State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference games.  Bet Coastal Carolina Wednesday.

20* Bills/Titans ESPN No-Brainer on Tennessee +5.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Buffalo Bills.  They are getting massive respect from oddsmakers and the betting public right now after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight blowout victories.

The Bills are coming off a 38-20 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs.  That was a huge revenge game for them after losing twice to the Chiefs last season, including getting eliminated by them in the playoffs.  Now they are fat and happy and feeling good about themselves, making them ripe for the picking.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Titans as they were the Chiefs.

The Titans have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the NFL year after year.  That was on display last year when they beat the Bills 42-16 at home as 3-point underdogs.  Now they are catching 5.5 points at home in the rematch.

The Bills have been forcing turnovers at an alarming rate, which is unsustainable.  They have forced three or more turnovers in four consecutive games and 15 turnovers overall in those four games.  Tennessee isn't a team that turns it over much as they are a run-heavy team, and Ryan Tannehill does a good job of taking care of the ball.  They have only committed seven turnovers in five games this season.

Plays against favorites (Buffalo) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Monday games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Titans Monday.

20* Cowboys/Patriots Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New England +4

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys.  They are the only remaining unbeaten team against the spread at 5-0 ATS this season.  They have won three straight home games against mediocre teams coming in.

The Cowboys haven't fared as well on the road.  They were fortunate to beat the Chargers 20-17 as the refs basically handed them that victory.  And they lost to the Bucs on the road in the opener despite forcing four turnovers.  And their turnover and injury luck has been unbelievable this year.  Players on opposing teams keep going down mid-game, and they have already forced 12 turnovers and at least two turnovers in every game, which is unsustainable.

The Patriots are just 2-3 this season and thus it's time to 'buy low' on them.  Two of their three losses came by a combined 3 points.  The other was a misleading 13-28 loss to the Saints in which they were -3 in turnovers and outgained the Saints by 48 yards.  Keep in mind they were last seen at home nearly upsetting the defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs, hitting the upright on a potential game-winning field goal in a 17-19 loss.

Dallas is only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.  They have an elite offense at 6.7 yards per play, but a terrible defense giving up 6.5 yards per play.  To compare, the Patriots have an elite defense in giving up 5.3 yards per play.  And Mac Jones is primed to have one of his best games of the season against this Dallas defense.

Bill Belichick is 14-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of New England.  The Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs of 7 points or fewer.  The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites.  New England is 39-19-3 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog overall.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.