25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers +3.5

The Packers are finally getting healthy at the right time. Charles Woodson just returned last week, and they had all of their receivers healthy for the first time all year. Green Bay dominated Minnesota 24-10 in the first round in a game that was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate.

Green Bay will want revenge from its loss to the 49ers in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers really had a good game, making this 49ers

20* Ravens/Broncos AFC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +9

The Ravens have new life now that they have their leader, Ray Lewis, back in action. He led the team in tackles with 13 in a 24-9 home victory over Indianapolis last weekend. This team really rallies around Lewis, and they want to send him out with a Super Bowl ring now that he has announced he will retire at season

20* Alabama/Notre Dame BCS Championship BEST BET on Notre Dame +10

The Fighting Irish have been getting disrespected all season. Many people don

15* Arkansas State/Kent State GoDaddy Bowl No-Brainer on Arkansas State -3.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves won the Sun Belt conference for a second straight year thanks to a finish that leaves them as one of the hottest teams in the country heading into their bowl game. They have gone 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall. All seven victories came by a touchdown or more.

Kent State comes in deflated following its loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game. There

15* Seahawks/Redskins NFC ATS ANNIHILATOR on Washington +3

The Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the league entering the playoffs. After a 3-6 start, it appeared that they would be just playing for pride the rest of the way. They weren

20* Seahawks/Redskins NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46

The oddsmakers have inflated this total in this NFC wild-card game between the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I believe is going to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Both offenses have been playing well of late, which is the biggest reason for this inflated total. However, each offense runs into a hot defense, and defenses reign supreme more times than not in the playoffs.

Seattle is allowing just 15.3 points/game this season, and it has given up 17 points or less in each of its last five contests. Washington has given up 21 or fewer points in three straight games while picking up three big wins in the process.

The Seahawks are scoring 21.1 points/game while allowing 18.7 points/game on the road this season. That's an average combined score of 39.8 points/game. Washington is scoring 25.7 points/game and allowing 22.1 points/game at home this year for an average combined score of 47.8 points/game. Add 47.8 and 39.8 and divide by two and we get 43.8, which is closer to what this total should really be set at, so you can see where I'm getting the value at.

This play falls into a system that is 29-8 (78.4%) to the UNDER since 1983. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams against the total (WASHINGTON) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

I look for both of these rookie quarterbacks to focus on taking care of the football and not making mistakes, which won't put their defenses in bad positions. This will lead to a low-scoring affair and an easy cash on the UNDER in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Wild-Card Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -7.5

The Packers have been playing their best football at home this season. They are 7-1 at Lambeau Field this year with their only loss coming against the San Francisco 49ers in their opener. They have won seven straight home games since, and they are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.6 points per game at Lambeau this season.

Green Bay had been dominant in this series before its Week 17 loss to Minnesota, which was a much more important game for the Vikings. It is still 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in its last six meetings with the Vikings. That includes a 23-14 home win earlier this season, and a 45-7 triumph at Lambeau last year. The Packers are outscoring the Vikings by an average of 13.7 points/game in their last six meetings.

While the Packers have struggled stopping Adrian Peterson, I believe a third try at him will help them improve against the run. They

20* Pitt/Ole Miss Compass Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -3

The Ole Miss Rebels were one of the most improved teams in the country this season. First-year head coach Hugh Freeze did an excellent job with this program by returning it to relevance. They even had three losses all by 6 points or less to Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and LSU, which are three of the better teams in the conference.

Ole Miss comes in with momentum after beating Mississippi State 41-24 in its finale just to become bowl eligible. It was their most dominant performance of the season as the Rebels outgained the Bulldogs 527-333 for the game. Now, they face a Pittsburgh team that doesn

20* Texas A&M/Oklahoma Cotton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -3

The Texas A&M Aggies were very close to winning the SEC West with a chance to play for the national title in Kevin Sumlin

20* K-State/Oregon Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Oregon -8

There

25* BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +14

The Florida Gators aren

15* Wisconsin/Stanford Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +7

The Badgers will at least have a familiar face guiding the program in in former head coach Barry Alvarez. With his credentials, he certainly demands respect from his players. He

15* Michigan/South Carolina Outback Bowl No-Brainer on South Carolina -5

The Gamecocks were just one loss away from playing for the SEC Championship and a shot at a national title. They beat SEC East champ Georgia 35-7, but followed that up with back-to-back road losses to LSU and Florida for their only setbacks of the season. They only lost 21-23 at LSU, and they gave up just 183 total yards to Florida in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.

Michigan already played one SEC team this season, and it was not pretty. It lost to Alabama 14-41 on a neutral field on September 1st in a game that was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. The Wolverines found themselves down 31-7 at halftime, and they rushed for just 69 yards on 2.4 per carry as a team.

South Carolina

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +1.5

This is the most talented team the Bulldogs have had in the Dan Mullen era. There

25* College Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Clemson/LSU UNDER 59.5

The UNDER in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl between Clemson and LSU represents my strongest college football total for the entire 2012-13 bowl season. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this number by more than two touchdowns.

LSU has one of the best defenses in the country, and it is more than capable of shutting down this Clemson offense Monday. The Tigers are only allowing 16.9 points/game this season while ranking 8th in the country in total defense at 296.2 yards/game.

While LSU has been dominant defensively, its has been sub-par on the other side of the ball. It is only scoring 15.5 points/game on the road this season while ranking 74th in the country in total offense at 387.2 yards/game.

Clemson played a defense in its season finale similar to the one that it will face in the Chick Fil A Bowl. It lost to South Carolina 17-27 for 44 combined points in a game that had a total set of 60.5. It was held to just 328 total yards in the loss. I look for a similar combined score in this contest against LSU.

Clemson is 8-0 to the UNDER in all dome games since 1992. We're seeing an average combined score of 34.9 points/game in this spot. LSU is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game since 1992. We're seeing an average combined score of 40.1 points/game in this situation. These two trends combine for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER over since 1992. Bet the UNDER in the Chick-fil-A Bowl Monday.

15* Georgia Tech/USC Sun Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 64

The books have set the bar too high in this Sun Bowl showdown between Georgia Tech and USC. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that I foresee neither team scoring more than 31 points.

USC faced some very good rushing teams this season as their opponents averaged 180 yards and 4.4/carry on the ground in 2012. The Trojans clearly have an above-average run D considering they held their opponents to 156 yards/game and 4.0/carry. That's huge considering Georgia Tech runs the triple-option and almost exclusive relies on the run.

USC had a solid offense this season under the guidance of quarterback Matt Barkley. However, Barkley will miss this game due to a shoulder injury, meaning that Max Wittek will get a second straight start in his place.

Things did not go well for Wittek in his first career start as he went just 14 of 23 passing for 186 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in a 13-22 home loss to Notre Dame in USC's season finale.

Georgia Tech came up with arguably its best defensive performance of the season in the ACC Championship. It held Florida State to just 21 points and 328 total yards while forcing three turnovers in a 15-21 loss. I look for it to build off of that performance and to keep Wittek in company in check.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 December games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. These three trends combine for a 20-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in the Sun Bowl Monday.

15* Cowboys/Redskins NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -3

The Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. They have won six straight games while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread in the process. After a 3-6 start, this team is simply on a mission to make the playoffs and win the NFC East. This is certainly a team that nobody wants to play right now, and one that won't be stopped Sunday.

Dallas had its momentum stopped with a 31-34 home loss to the New Orleans Saints last week in a game it really thought it had to win to make the playoffs. That was just its second loss in seven games with the other coming at home to the Redskins by a final of 31-38 on Thanksgiving Day.

Washington really dominated that first meeting with the Cowboys in a game that was much more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. This game was essentially over at halftime as the Redskins took a 28-3 lead into intermission. They kind of just coasted the rest of the way, allowing the Cowboys to make it respectable in garbage time with the outcome already decided.

The Redskins are 15-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Washington is 19-4 ATS versus poor rushing teams that average less than 90 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Cowboys are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC East opponents.

Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall, 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win, 5-0 ATS in its last 5 vs. NFC opponents, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 December games, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings with the Cowboys. These six trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the home team. Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

Recommendation: Buy the Redskins to -3

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -3

The Packers are one of the hottest teams in the league over the last few months. They have gone 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall to make backers a ton of money at the pay window. Rarely will you get them as a favorite of 3 points or less, so this is certainly a generous line from oddsmakers.

Green Bay has been the better team on both sides of the ball this season. It is scoring 26.6 points per game while ranking 13th in the league in total offense at 356.4 yards per game. It is allowing just 19.9 points per game while ranking 10th in the league in total defense at 329.6 yards per game.

Despite being 9-6 on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by 18.9 yards per game. This is one of the most overrated teams in the league, and one that isn't nearly as good as its record. Green Bay beat Minnesota 23-14 in the first meeting despite 210 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson.

There's no way the Vikings get another 200-yard day from AP as the Packers make the necessary adjustments to stop the run. And when the Packers do stop the run, the Vikings will be in a world of hurt considering they rank dead last in the NFL in passing offense at 168.3 yards per game.

This has been a very one-sided series over the last few years to say the least. Green Bay is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in its last five meetings with Minnesota. All five wins have come by 4 points or more and by an average of 17.0 points per game. That includes a 23-14 home victory in their first meeting this season as the Packers outgained the Vikings 435-359.

The Packers are 10-1 ATS versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 26.4 points per game. Bet the Packers Sunday.

Recommendation: Buy the Packers to -3

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bears -3

The Bears are the only team with something to play for in this one. They are still fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC at 9-6 on the season. They would clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Minnesota loss. Considering the Vikings play the Green Bay Packers in Week 17, the Bears know that there

15* TCU/Michigan State Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl BAILOUT on TCU -2.5

The Horned Frogs have the better offense in this one. They put up 29.3 points per game this season while ranking 61st in the country in total offense at 397.0 yards per game. Michigan State is scoring just 20.2 points per game while ranking 87th in total offense at 370.3 yards per game.

The Spartans lost their three offensive stars from last season in Kirk Cousins, B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin.

15* Oregon State/Texas Alamo Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State -3

The Oregon State Beavers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That is evident by the fact that they are an impressive 8-4 against the spread in all games, making backers a lot of money at the pay window this year. Their only three losses came on the road against Washington and Stanford by a combined 7 points, and at home against Oregon.

Texas is not playing well coming into this game having dropped two straight against TCU and Kansas State. It managed a combined 37 total points in the losses while committing seven turnovers. It continues to struggle at the quarterback position as head coach Mack Brown keeps going back and forth between David Ash and Case McCoy.

Oregon State is a sound football team on both sides of the ball. It is scoring 33.0 points per game while ranking 34th in the country in total offense at 442.7 yards per game. It is allowing just 19.7 points per game while ranking 33rd in the land in total defense at 353.7 yards per game.

The biggest strength on the Beavers

20* WVU/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Syracuse +4

The Syracuse Orange have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They gave away some games early, but really came on strong late. They won three straight games to close out the season with a blowout 45-26 home victory over Louisville, followed by impressive road wins at Missouri and Temple. Louisville won the Big East and will be playing in a BCS bowl.

A closer look at the numbers indicates that the Orange are one of the better teams in the country. They rank 21st in the land in total offense at 473.4 yards per game and a respectable 51st in total defense at 385.1 yards per game. They have a huge edge on defense considering West Virginia ranks just 110th in total yards allowed at 469.6.

Syracuse has a mental edge over former Big East rivalry West Virginia having won each of the last two meetings over the past two seasons. It won 19-14 on the road as a 13.5-point underdog in 2010, then came back with an even more impressive 49-23 home victory as a 14-point dog in 2011. Ryan Nassib threw for 229 yards and four touchdowns in the win, and he

20* Rutgers/VA Tech Russell Athletic Bowl No-Brainer on Virginia Tech -2

The Hokies simply underachieved this season after coming into the season with lofty expectations. They did manage to rebound down the stretch, winning their final two games against Boston College and Virginia to become bowl eligible. It would have been three in a row if not for a last-second loss to Florida State by a final of 22-28, which was a game that showed what this team is capable of.

Rutgers is deflated following two straight losses to close out the season. It played Louisville for all the marbles in its season finale on November 29th, but blew a double-digit lead to fall 17-20. That loss cost the Scarlet Knights a trip to the Sugar Bowl against Florida. These players will have hard time getting motivated to play in the Russell Athletic Bowl after letting such a big opportunity slip by.

15* Ohio/ULM Independence Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +7

Following three straight losses, there

15* Baylor/UCLA Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Baylor +3

The Bears are playing the better football coming into this game. They were absolutely sensational to finish out the season, winning four of their final five games while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Their only loss during this stretch came at Oklahoma 34-42 as a 21-point underdog. They beat Kansas 41-14, then-No. 1 Kansas State 52-24, Texas Tech 52-45, and Oklahoma State 41-34, so it

20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +8

The Blue Devils are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this season. This is their first trip to a bowl game since 1994. Head coach David Cutcliffe has his best team in five years with the program, and that really showed this season. These players want to be here more than the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Cincinnati had high hopes coming into the season of winning the Big East to play in a BCS bowl game. That didn

20* CMU/WKU Pizza Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57

I look for a shootout in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl between Central Michigan and Western Kentucky Wednesday. This game will be played inside a dome at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. That means the scoring conditions will be optimal for these two solid offenses.

Central Michigan really picked up the pace at the end of the season offensively, scoring 30 or more points in six straight games to close out the year. QB Ryan Radcliff is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 scores.

Western Kentucky put up an average of 28.7 points/game this season. RB Antonio Andrews will get plenty of touches as he makes a bid to set a single-season NCAA record for all-purpose yards. Andrews, who rushed for 1,609 yards and 11 touchdowns, also has 957 return yards and 2,977 overall. The junior needs 274 yards to surpass Barry Sanders' mark of 3,250 from his 1988 Heisman Trophy-winning season.

While the Hilltoppers did have a solid defense with three players earning all-conference honors. However, the anchor of that unit - Sun Belt defensive player of the year and defensive end Quanterus Smith - is out due to a knee injury suffered Nov. 17 against Louisiana-Lafayette. He had an FBS-leading 1.25 sacks per game and 12 1/2 overall in 10 games.

Western Kentucky gave up an average of 31.5 points/game over their last four games heading into the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Central Michigan gave up 33.3 points/game this season while ranking 93rd in the country in total defense (441.2 yards/game).

Central Michigan is 7-0 to the OVER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. The Chippewas are 6-0 to the OVER in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. CMU is 6-0 to the OVER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Wednesday.

20* Fresno/SMU Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on Fresno State -11.5

The Bulldogs have been the best team in the country at the pay window this season. Not only did they go 9-3 and while clinching a share of the Mountain West title, they also went an incredible 11-1 against the spread in the process. This team has certainly been going under the radar all season.

They are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game, so they

15* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +1

The Seahawks have a ton to play for in this one. They would be the No. 5 seed in the NFC if the season were to end today, and they are trying to fend off several 8-6 teams in their conference. They can also pull to within one-half game of the 49ers for the NFC West division lead with a victory heading into Week 17.

Seattle has been playing its best football in the second half of the season, especially over the last two weeks. It has won five of its last six games overall with four of those victories coming by double-digits. That includes a 58-0 home victory over Arizona on December 9th, and a 50-17 triumph in Toronto against Buffalo last Sunday.

The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread at home this season, yet they are an underdog in this one. They are scoring 30.2 points per game and allowing just 11.5 points per game at home this year. As you can see, they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.7 points per game inside of CenturyLink Field in 2012.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on home teams (SEATTLE)

15* Bears/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -5

The Chicago Bears are showing arguably their best value of the season Sunday as only a 5-point favorite at Arizona. The Bears are undervalued right now due to a stretch of poor play heading into this one, while the Cardinals are overvalued after a big win last week.

The Bears have lost five of their last six games overall, but all six of those contests came against playoff contenders. They played the Texans, 49ers, Packers, Seahawks and Vikings twice during this stretch. With so much still to play for, there's no question the they will be laying it all on the line Sunday.

Finally, Chicago gets a break in its schedule in Week 16 against the hapless Arizona Cardinals (5-9). This is the same Cardinals' team that had lost nine games in a row before a 38-10 home victory over the Detroit Lions last week. They don't have much reason to show up for this game with nothing other than pride to play for.

That win over the Lions was far from the blowout that it appeared on the scoreboard. Arizona only gained 196 total yards while giving up 312 total yards. It's really hard to score 38 points when only gaining 196 yards, but the Lions simply gift-wrapped the Cardinals most of their points by committing four turnovers.

That's important considering Arizona is 0-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 18.9 points per game. Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Saints/Cowboys NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5

The Cowboys are playing their best football of the season right now when the games have mattered most. Looking dead to the water after a 3-5 start, Dallas has reeled off five wins in its last six games to get to 8-6 on the season. It is now tied with Washington and New York atop the NFC East division.

At 6-8 on the season, the New Orleans Saints do not have much to play for. Their only real motivation is to play for pride and for the role of spoiler. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have everything to play for with the division title or a wild-card berth at stake.

Dallas has the superior defense in this one by far. It ranks a respectable 14th in the league in total defense at 340.3 yards per game allowed. New Orleans is yielding 27.1 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 433.6 yards per game. The Cowboys will come up with more stops in this one, which will be the difference.

This play falls into a system that is 32-12 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS)

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans -7.5

The Houston Texans have everything to play for in this one. With a win against the overrated Minnesota Vikings Sunday, the Texans will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That means they are playing for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota comes in way overvalued due to back-to-back wins over the Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams. Both of those wins were gift-wrapped to the Vikings considering Chicago outgained them 438-248, while St. Louis outgained them 432-322. The Vikings won't get away with such sloppy defense against the Texans this time around.

Stopping Adrian Peterson is the key to stopping Minnesota. In addition to owning the AFC's best record, Houston (12-2) has the fifth-ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing 93.2 yards per game and a league-low three rushing touchdowns. The Vikings rank last in the NFL in passing offense (168.1 yards/game), so this is a terrible match-up for them.

Houston is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 17.5 points/game. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by 17.9 points/game. Roll with the Texans Sunday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Trailing the Bengals by one game for the 6th and final wild-card spot in the AFC, this is a must-win game for the Steelers. A loss and they would be eliminated from postseason contention. This team has been great in these situations while winning two Super Bowls under Ben Roethlisberger.

Pittsburgh simply owns this series with Cincinnati. It has won five straight meetings while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Dating back further, it has won 14 of the last 18 meetings between these teams.

The Steelers topped the Bengals 24-17 on the road in their first meeting of the season on October 21st. This game was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals 431-185 for the game. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 285 yards and a touchdown, while Jonathan Dwyer rushed for 122 yards in the win.

Pittsburgh is 46-23 ATS in its last 69 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It is outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game in this spot.

The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 8-1 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North foes, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Steelers. These four trends combine for a 24-1 (96%) system backing Pittsburgh. Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* Falcons/Lions NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit +4.5

This line is simply be an overreaction from what happened last week. Obviously, the Falcons blew out the defending Super Bowl champs, while the Lions were upset in blowout fashion by one of the worst teams in the league.

There

20* Washington/Boise State Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +6

The Washington Huskies played a much tougher schedule than the Broncos did this season, and they are more battle-tested heading into this contest because of it. This will arguably be Boise State

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Ball State +7

The Ball State Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They won nine games with their only losses coming against current Top 25 opponents in Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State. They fell to both the Huskies and Golden Flashes by a combined 14 points, and both of those teams went on to play in the MAC title game. In fact, Northern Illinois will be playing in a BCS bowl.

Ball State features a dynamic offense, and it is certainly the superior team on this side of the ball. It is averaging 35.0 points per game while ranking 22nd in the country in total offense at 471.3 yards per game. It is averaging 214.3 yards on the ground and 257.1 through the air. UCF is 58th in total offense at 400.7 yards per game.

Starting quarterback Keith Wenning is expected to return after missing their season finale against Miami (Ohio) with a strained Achilles tendon. He is currently listed as probable, and he

20* BYU/San Diego State Poinsettia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on BYU -2.5

The BYU Cougars come in playing well having won three of their last four games overall. All three wins came by 24 or more points, including a 41-17 victory at Georgia Tech. Their lone loss during this stretch came on the road against an underrated San Jose State team by a final of 14-20.

San Diego State has a solid offense, but BYU has the antidote with one of the best defenses in the FBS. It is allowing just 14.7 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 266.3 yards per game.

The Cougars aren

20* Jets/Titans ESPN Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York +2

While the Titans have already been eliminated from postseason contention, the Jets are still alive. They have an excellent chance to win their final three games against the Titans, Chargers and Bills, which would leave them with a 9-7 record. That could be good enough to get them a wild-card spot, so this team certainly still has something to play for.

New York has won two straight and three of its last four with its only loss coming to the Patriots during this stretch. It has two road wins over this span with a 27-13 victory at St. Louis on November 18th, and a 17-10 win at Jacksonville last Sunday. It has been playing great defensively of late, limiting its opponents to 291 or less yards in its last three wins. It even held the Cardinals to 137 total yards in a home victory on December 2nd.

The Jets are certainly the better defensive team in this one, and it

15* Seahawks/Bills NFL Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 43

This total has been inflated Sunday in the annual NFL game played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada. I look for a very low-scoring game between the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon.

The biggest reason this total is inflated is due to the Seahawks scoring 58 points last week against Arizona. The Cardinals had given up early into that game, and the Seahawks kept pouring on the points. They won't be putting up a big number on this improved Bills' defense this week.

Buffalo has been playing tremendous on defense of late, limiting opponents to just 16.8 points/game in their last four contests. However, they have been poor offensively of late, scoring an average of only 19.5 points/game in their last four.

Seattle features one of the best defenses in the league. After shutting out the Cardinals last week, the Seahawks are giving up just 15.5 points/game while ranking 3rd in the league in total defense at 301.2 yards/game allowed.

The Seahawks are really not a good offensive team, especially when you don't factor in that Arizona game last week. Seattle is averaging just 17.0 points/game on the road this season, and it ranks just 21st in the league in total offense at 341.2 yards/game.

Buffalo is 13-2 to the UNDER in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score in these games has been Buffalo 14.0 and its opponents 22.8 for a combined average of 36.8 points. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Lions/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5

The Lions have lost five straight, and they have to be extremely frustrated with all of their close losses this season. Off a 20-27 loss at Green Bay in which they blew a 14-3 lead early, the Lions may not even show up this week. It

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Rams -2

The St. Louis Rams are playing their best football of the season right now. They should be a bigger favorite over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, and I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back the Rams in a game I believe they'll run away with.

St. Louis has won three straight with two of those victories coming on the road. It won 31-17 at Arizona as a 1.5-point dog, 16-13 vs. San Francisco as a 7.5-point dog, and 15-12 at Buffalo as a 3-point dog. This is clearly one of the most underrated teams in the league.

Minnesota is getting way too much respect for its 21-14 victory over Chicago last week. The Bears essentially gave that game away as they found a way to lose despite outgaining the Vikings 438-248 for the game. Remember, this is the same Minnesota team that had lost four of its previous five games all by 9 points or more coming in.

Percy Harvin is done for the year, and the Vikings' passing game has really struggled because of it. They are averaging a woeful 124.3 passing yards/game in their last seven contests. They are having to rely much too heavily on Adrian Peterson to carry the load, and their one-dimensional offense will be easy for the Rams to stop.

St. Louis ranks 12th in the league against the run at 110.3 yards/game. It is also giving up just 4.0 yards/carry. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider the 13 teams the Rams have faced this season average 126 yards and 4.4/carry, so they clearly have a great run D.

The Rams are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season, clearly playing best football inside the Edward Jones Dome. Minnesota has been atrocious on the road, going 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season. The Vikings are getting outscored by an average of 7.5 points/game away from home this year.

Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. These five trends combine for a 31-1 (97%) system backing St. Louis. Take the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +8

The Jaguars have played their best football on the road this season. While they are just 1-5 straight up away from home, they are a very profitable 5-1 ATS. This team doesn't have the best following at home, so they have a hard time getting excited to play in a stadium that has thousands of empty seats. It's just a better atmosphere for these players when they go on the road.

They lost at Minnesota 23-26 in overtime as a 3.5-point dog, won at Indianapolis 22-17 as a 3-point dog, lost at Oakland 23-26 as a 6-point dog, lost at Green Bay 15-24 as a 15.5-point dog, and lost at Houston 37-43 in overtime as a 15-point dog in their five road covers.

Miami is actually getting outscored at home this season, and it has been one of the worst home teams in the league over the last couple decades. The Dolphins are 48-71 ATS in home games after the first month of the season since 1992. They are also 39-59 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

The Dolphins simply do not score enough points to be a 7-point favorite against any team in this league. They are only averaging 18.5 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense at 310.6 yards per game. Three of their five wins this season have come by 4 points or less.

This play falls into a system that is 118-70 (62.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI)

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucs/Saints OVER 53.5

The OVER in this game between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints Sunday represents my strongest over/under release for the entire 2012-13 NFL season. I look for both teams to score 27-plus points to easily push the final combined score OVER the posted total by game's end.

I look for a similar final to the 35-28 road victory by New Orleans in the first meeting between these teams on October 21st. Tampa Bay put up 513 total yards in the loss, including 411 passing. New Orleans wasn't far behind with 458 total yards in the win, including 377 passing. As you can see, these teams combined for 63 total points and 971 total yards.

These are clearly two of the worst defenses in the NFL. New Orleans is allowing 29.2 points/game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 437.3 yards per game. Tampa Bay is yielding 23.7 points/game and ranking 28th in total defense at 389.8 yards per game.

That bodes well for a high-scoring affair considering these are two of the best offenses in the league as well. New Orleans is scoring 26.8 points/game while ranking 3rd in total offense at 394.3 yards/game. Tampa Bay is putting up 27.2 points/game and ranking 13th in total offense at 356.8 yards/game.

The Bucs are 6-0 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Tampa is 7-0 OVER off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.

The Bucs are 6-0 OVER after playing a home game this season. Tampa is 6-0 OVER after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. These six trends combine for a perfect 37-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Toledo/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 58.5

The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl features a match-up between two of the best offenses in the country. I look for a high-scoring affair in this contest between Utah State and Toledo with 60-plus combined points scored by game's end.

Utah State is scoring 34.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the country in total offense at 460.7 yards/game. What makes this offense so difficult to stop is its balance. The Aggies average 193 yards on the ground and 268 through the air.

The Aggies should have their way with a Toledo stop unit that ranks 107th in the country in total defense. They give up a whopping 463.2 yards/game, including 168 on the ground and 295 through the air.

Toledo is putting up 32.9 points/game while ranking 28th in the country in total offense at 456.1 yards/game. It also has tremendous balance as it averages 197 yards on the ground and 259 through the air.

Utah State does have a good defense, but it hasn't faced many offenses nearly as potent as the one it will be facing in this bowl game. Two offenses they've faced that have been comparable are San Jose State and Louisiana Tech. They gave up 27 points in a 49-27 victory over San Jose State on September 13th, and 41 points in a 48-41 victory over Louisiana Tech on November 17th.

Toledo is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 78.8 combined points on average in this situation. The Rockets are 11-1 to the OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 76.0 combined points in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Bengals/Eagles NFL Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia +5

The Eagles are showing excellent value at home tonight as a 5-point underdog to the Cincinnati Bengals. This line opened at Cincinnati -3, but the betting public has jumped all over the Bengals pushing it up to 5 in some places. I liked the Eagles at +3.5, and I certainly will back them at this price with a gift of a line from the books at +4.5 or better.

Philadelphia is undervalued right now due to the fact that it won't be going to the playoffs. These players have really known that for quite some time after a 3-7 start, but they have kept fighting. I look for them to continue to give their best effort tonight and to try and play the role of spoiler, just as they did last week.

The Eagles have been fighting for the last three weeks. They lost at home to Carolina 22-30 on November 26th, lost at Dallas 33-38 as a 10.5-point dog on December 2nd, then won 23-21 at Tampa Bay as a 7-point dog last Sunday. They thoroughly outplayed the Bucs, outgaining them 367-314 for the game.

Nick Foles had a big game, completing 32 of 51 passes for 381 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In fact, he has not thrown an interception in 14 quarters as he continues to improve with each start. The Eagles' defense held Josh Freeman to 14 of 34 passing for 189 yards and two touchdowns.

"He has the potential to be a special quarterback in this league," said Jeremy Maclin, who caught a season-high nine passes for 104 yards in the win over Tampa Bay. "And he's growing up right in front of our eyes."

Cincinnati blew a 9-point lead at home in the fourth quarter to lose 19-20 to the Dallas Cowboys last week. Head coach Marvin Lewis hasn't been able to get his team to respond well following tough losses like that one. Lewis is 2-10 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Cincinnati.

Andy Reid is 29-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Philadelphia. Lewis is 0-9 ATS in road games vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return as the coach of Cincinnati.

This play falls into a system that is 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Bet the Eagles Thursday.

20* Texans/Pats ESPN Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Houston +4

The Houston Texans have been the best team in the league all season in my opinion. I look for them to go out and make a statement Monday against the New England Patriots and win this game outright. I'll just take the points for some extra insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal either way.

A closer look at the numbers shows that Houston is the better team in this one. It ranks 4th in the league in total offense (388.5 yards/game) and 6th in total defense (322.9 yards/game). It is outgaining opponents by an average of 65.6 yards/game on the season.

The Patriots rank 1st in the NFL in total offense (426.2 yards/game). However, they are just 26th in total defense (381.7 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 44.5 yards/game. The difference in this game is going to be Houston's ability to get more stops behind a much better defense.

New England really started to show signs of missing TE Rob Gronkowski last week. It only gained 321 total yards against Miami in a lackluster 23-16 victory. Tom Brady and company are much easier to defense when you don't have to worry about his favorite weapon, which is clearly Gronkowski, especially in the red zone.

The Texans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 23-1 (96%) system backing Houston. I know this line is +3 and +3.5 in a lot of places, and I still recommend the Texans at those numbers. Bet the Texans Monday.

15* Lions/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Detroit +7

The Lions are one of the best 4-8 teams in the history of the NFL. This team just continually beats itself, which is the only reason they are 4-8 right now instead of 8-4. They should have no problem getting motivated to face their NFC North rival as they want revenge from their 20-24 loss to Green Bay on November 18th, which was another game they gave away.

All eight of Detroit

15* Cardinals/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +10

The Arizona Cardinals should not be catching double-digit points against the Seattle Seahawks Sunday. The Cardinals are just 4-8 this season, but these division games are played closer to the vest, and they will have no problem getting up to face Seattle to try and spoil its season.

I like Arizona's chances of making a game out of this considering they will start John Skelton at quarterback this week instead of Ryan Lindley, who was absolutely atrocious in his last couple starts.

Remember, the Cardinals won five of their final six games last season to finish 8-8 with Skelton running the show. They had little to play for down the stretch last year, but showed tremendous pride. That's why I believe this team will not pack it in, especially against a division opponent in Week 14.

Seattle isn't a team built for blowout out the opposition, which is why it should not be this heavily favored Sunday. The Seahawks are only scoring 20.2 points/game on the season while ranking 24th in the league in total offense (328.6 yards/game).

The Seahawks have not been favored by more than 5.5 points in any other game this season. This is simply a case of them being overvalued due to their 5-0 record at home. Now is the time to go against that trend and back the double-digit road dog showing tremendous value.

This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10.0 or more points (ARIZONA) - after 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins. This trend just goes to show that teams on long losing streaks eventually show the kind of value that you just cannot pass up. That's the case in this one. Take the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +10

The Miami Dolphins have been extremely competitive this season as they

15* Cowboys/Bengals NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

As usual, the Cowboys have saved their best football for the last few months of the season. They have won three of their last four games to get right back in the playoff hunt in the NFC.

They certainly need this win a little bit more than the Bengals do considering they trail Seattle by one game for the final NFC wild-card spot, and they lost to the Seahawks earlier this season, so they are essentially two games back. They can also get in by winning the NFC East as they trail the Giants by one game.

When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that Dallas is one of the best teams in the league. Its ranks 8th in the league in total offense at 379.1 yards per game, and 11th in total defense at 336.7 yards per game. It is outgaining opponents by 42.4 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team that would be above .500 at this point of the season rather than one that is 6-6.

The Bengals have been playing well of late, winning four in a row straight up and four in a row ATS. Three of those wins came against the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers, which is far from impressive. This four-game winning streak against weak competition has them overvalued, and they should not be the favorite here.

This play falls into a system that is 100-58 (63.3%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on underdogs or pick (DALLAS)

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Redskins -1.5

The Redskins are playing their best football of the season right now. They have won three straight over division rivals Philadelphia, Dallas and New York to put themselves in a great position to make a run at the NFC East title with only four games remaining. They trail the Giants by just one game, but own the tiebreaker due to their division record.

Baltimore may be 9-3 this season, but a closer look at the numbers assures that it has been overachieving in the win-loss column all season. Six of its nine wins have come by 7 points or less, including five by 3 points or fewer. They have simply gotten all the breaks to go their way in close games, but that tends to even out over time.

The Ravens rank just 19th in the league in total offense at 343.2 yards per game, and 25th in total defense at 372.4 yards per game. They are getting outgained by an average of 29.2 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team below .500 than one that is 9-3 on the season.

Baltimore was already playing without Ray Lewis and LaDarius Webb, two of its best defensive players. Now, it is likely to be without 2011 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs for the rest of the season. Suggs suffered what was diagnosed a torn bicep in its 20-23 loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday.

That's bad news for a suspect Baltimore defense that was already going to have a hard time containing Robert Griffin III and company. The Redskins are scoring 26.0 points/game this season while ranking 7th in the league in total offense (384.1 yards/game).

The biggest offensive strength for the Redskins is a rushing attack that is ranks 1st in the league at 167.2 yards/game. Baltimore ranks just 23rd in the league against the run, yielding 125.8 yards/game on the ground.

The key to stopping the Ravens is stopping Ray Rice. While the Redskins have not been good against the pass this season, they have been tremendous against the run. Washington ranks 4th in the league in run defense, yielding just 91.5 yards/game on the ground.

The Ravens never seem to play well the week after facing Pittsburgh, by far their biggest rival in the league. They lost at home to a Big Ben-less Steelers team last week, and I look for them to suffer a hangover effect this week against the surging Redskins.

Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Ravens are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 December games. Bet the Redskins Sunday.

20* Army/Navy Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy -7

This is a big mismatch once again in 2012 just as it has been over the past decade in this series. I look for the Navy Midshipmen (7-4) to roll by more than a touchdown over the Army Black Knights (2-9) Saturday in one of the biggest rivalries in the country.

Navy is 10-0 in its last 10 meetings with Army. Most of these games haven't even been close as nine of the ten wins came by 12 points or more. Navy did only win 27-21 last season, but its football program was way down last year. It is back to being dominant once again in 2012, especially of late.

The Midshipmen have won six of their last seven games overall. This amazing run to end the season coincided with a change at quarterback. Freshman Keenan Reynolds led Navy to a comeback win over Air Force on October 6th and he has ran away with the job ever since.

Reynolds gives Navy a dual-threat quarterback with his ability to hit open receivers, which has made all the difference. Reynolds has completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 754 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He has also rushed for 585 yards and nine scores.

Navy's ability to pass the ball is going to be one of the biggest reasons they win and cover in this game. Unlike Army, they hardly have to worry about defending the pass. Army quarterback Trent Steelman is completing just 45.9 percent of his passes for 619 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.

Not only do the Midshipmen have the edge through the air, but they also have the edge defending the run. Navy gives up 161 rushing yards/game and 4.3/carry, while Army yields 238 rushing yards/game and 5.7/carry. Simply put, the Midshipmen have the advantage in every phase of this game and should be a bigger favorite because of it.

Navy is 18-3 ATS in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) since 1992. Army is 0-7 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Midshipmen are 68-32 ATS in their last 100 road games. The Black Knights are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Navy Saturday.

20* Broncos/Raiders NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Denver -10

The Broncos are the hottest team in the league heading into Week 14. They have won seven straight while going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. All seven victories have come by 7 points or more as well, so it

25* Giants/Redskins MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +3

The Redskins had the Giants beat in their first meeting, but gave the game away in a 23-27 road loss on October 21st. They outgained the Giants 480-393 for the game, but committed four turnovers while also allowing the game-winning 77-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz with 1:13 to play.

There

15* Eagles/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 43

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low Sunday in this NFC East battle between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. I look for a similar final to the 38-23 game these teams played in their first meeting of the season on November 11th where 61 combined points were scored.

Both defenses are surrendering big points this season. Philadelphia allows 25.6 points/game overall, while Dallas gives up 23.8 points/game, including 26.2 points/game at home this year.

Both offenses rank in the top half of the league. Philadelphia is 14th in total offense at 357.2 yards/game, while Dallas is 9th at 375.6 yards/game. The Eagles are giving up 30.7 points/game in their last six contests, while the Cowboys are yielding 27.0 points/game in their last three.

Dallas is 8-1 to the OVER in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average combined score of 58.4 points/game in this situation. The Cowboys are 10-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 7-0 OVER in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 25-2 (93%) system backing the OVER. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +9

The Steelers simply need this win more as they are currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC if the season were to end today. Baltimore has some breathing room in the AFC North as it is three games clear of both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. It doesn

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +5

The Colts have been underrated all season. Nobody picked this team to be 7-4 at this point, let alone win seven games all year. They are right in the middle of the AFC playoff hunt due to their surprising start. This is a team that is going to give it their all every week as they play for head coach Chuck Pagano, who is battling cancer.

Detroit has to be deflated after falling to Houston on Thanksgiving Day 34-31 in overtime for yet another heartbreaking loss. This team could suffer a hangover from that defeat as its playoff hopes have all but been crushed. Detroit does have four wins this season, but three of those came by 4 points or less. Considering the Lions have just one win all season by more than 4 points, I'll gladly side with the value and the Colts +5.

This play falls into a system that is 32-12 (72.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS)

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Rams +7.5

The Rams went into San Francisco and should have won the first meeting of the season. They outgained the 49ers 458-341 for the game. The 49ers were very fortunate to not lose any of their four fumbles in that contest.

St. Louis had its best offensive performance of the season in that game, proving that the 49ers

15* Nebraska/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship BAILOUT on Wisconsin +3

The Wisconsin Badgers want revenge from a 27-30 loss at Nebraska earlier this season on September 29th as an 11-point underdog. They blew a 27-10 second-half lead in that contest, allowing the Corhuskers to score 20 unanswered points to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Nebraska has been getting away with murder all season, but that's not going to happen again Saturday. The Huskers have escaped with so many close victories over the final minutes of games that you would almost think it's magical.

The Huskers have five wins by 9 points or less, and every one of those games came right down to the wire with the opposing team blowing it in the end. Nebraska is nowhere near as good as its 10-2 record would indicate, and it is not even the better team in this contest.

Beating a team twice in the same season is extremely difficult, especially after the nature of the way the Huskers came back to win by 3 points in their first meeting at home. On a neutral field this time around, I have no doubt that the Badgers have their revenge and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl with a victory.

Wisconsin has an edge in the running game, which is going to be the difference in this game. Both teams rely heavily on the run, and the Badgers stop it better. They rank 13th in the country in rushing defense (111.3 yards/game), allowing just 3.4 yards/carry. Nebraska ranks 72nd against the run (166.2 yards/game), yielding 4.2 yards/carry.

Nebraska is 10-22 ATS in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992. Wisconsin is 21-8 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992. The Badgers are 21-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. After closing out the season with back-to-back overtime losses to Ohio State and Penn State, the Badgers are battle-tested heading into this one. Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

20* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +14

The Yellow Jackets

15* Alabama/Georgia SEC Championship No-Brainer on Georgia +8

The Bulldogs have certainly saved their best football for last. After a shaky start to the season due to suspensions to key players, they have rebounded nicely to win the SEC East for a second straight season. They certainly have a ton of momentum heading into the SEC Championship because of it.

Georgia has won six straight games while going 4-1 ATS in its last five contests dating back to a 17-9 win over Florida, its biggest win of the season. It has outscored each of its last four opponents all by 27 points or more, including a 42-10 victory over Georgia Tech last week.

The biggest difference in this team is that it has finally started to play up to its potential defensively. It has allowed 14 points or less in five straight games, giving up an average of just 8.6 points per game in the process. This was one of the best stop units in the country last season, and it

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA +8.5

UCLA simply suffered a letdown last week against Stanford. It was coming off its biggest win of the season with a victory over USC the previous week that assured it a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Essentially, the Bruins really had nothing to play for against the Cardinal last week.

Last week

15* NIU/Kent State MAC Championship No-Brainer on Kent State +7.5

The Northern Illinois Huskies are way overvalued heading into this MAC Championship. Kent State has been underrated all season and should not be catching a touchdown in a game I believe they can win outright. I'll take the points for some insurance.

Northern Illinois has not been playing all that sharp of football lately. They beat Toledo 31-24 at home as a 10-point favorite on November 14th, then went on the road to beat Eastern Michigan 14-7 as a 20.5-point favorite on November 23rd. This will be their toughest test of the season thus far.

Kent State is 11-1 this season while dominating along the way. Ten of its 11 wins have come by 7 points or more. The fact that this team is 10-2 ATS on the season shows how undervalued they have been all year. They'll continue making backers money at the pay window tonight.

The biggest reason I like Kent State in this contest is its ability to stop the run. It ranks 27th in the country against the run (129.3 yards/game) while allowing 3.7 yards/carry. That's impressive considering the 12 opponents it has faced average 169 rushing yards and 4.4/carry on the season. Northern Illinois rushes for 245.0 yards/game, so stopping the run is extremely important in this one.

Kent State is 7-0 ATS after playing a conference game this season. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Kent State is 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Kent State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Golden Flashes. Take Kent State Friday.

20* Saints/Falcons NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans +3.5

The Saints simply need this win more as they sit at just 5-6 on the season. They cannot afford more than one more loss the rest of the season if they want to make the playoffs, and they may just have to win out to do so. They

15* Louisville/Rutgers ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44

This game between Louisville and Rutgers is for all the marbles with the Big East Championship on the line. Both teams features below-average offenses and great defenses, and I look for a defensive battle tonight because of it.

Rutgers is giving up just 13.7 points/game overall, including 12.0 points/game at home. It ranks 14th in the country in total defense at 317.4 yards/game allowed. Louisville is yielding 24.2 points/game while ranking 26th in the country in total defense at 345.5 yards/game.

Rutgers has really struggled offensively this season as it ranks 100th in the country in total offense at 341.4 yards/game. Louisville has been decent offensively at 44th in the land with 431.3 yards/game, but it has yet to face a defense as dominant as the one it will see tonight.

I look for this contest to result in a similar final score to last year's 16-14 home victory by Louisville. The Cardinals managed just 309 total yards while limiting the Scarlet Knights to 298 total yards. I don't foresee either team topping 20 points in this one, either.

Rutgers is 7-0 to the UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 7-0 to the UNDER after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Scarlet Knights last 4 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Panthers/Eagles ESPN Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 41

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles. The books and the betting public are overreacting here to the losses of Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy for the Eagles.

Nick Foles and Bryce Brown will be taking their place, and I believe the Eagles still have one of the top offenses in the league with these two at the forefront. Philly ranks a very respectable 13th in the NFL in total offense at 361.8 yards/game.

It will be up against a Carolina defense that ranks 18th in the league at 350.7 yards/game allowed, and one that is without several key players due to injury. The Panthers are giving up 24.3 points/game this season.

The Eagles are giving up 25.2 points/game overall and 26.8 points/game at home. Cam Newton should have his way with a Philadelphia pass defense which has allowed a combined 143.6 passer rating over the past four weeks, surrendering 11 touchdown passes and making no interceptions.

Carolina is 8-1 to the OVER in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers are 12-3 to the OVER in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. The OVER is 9-2 in Panthers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Eagles last 8 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 games in Week 12. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Packers/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay +3

The Packers are rolling right now and it would be pretty foolish to bet against them with how well they are playing. They have won five straight while going 4-1 ATS in the process. They

15* Ravens/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +2

Taking a closer look at the numbers, I believe the Chargers are actually the superior team and should be the favorite in this contest. Yes, they have given some games away, but the Ravens have basically won all of their close games while catching plenty of breaks along the way. That

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland Raiders +9.5

This line is simply an overreaction from recent results between these two teams. There's no way the Bengals should be favored by 9.5 points against almost any team in the league. That's why I believe there is some serious line value with the Oakland Raiders in this one.

Public perception right now says that the Bengals are a great team because of back-to-back blowout victories over the Giants and Chiefs. With those two wins, they have created expectations against the spread that they simply cannot live up to. The betting public loves this team right now, which is why it's time to fade them.

Public perception is way down on the Oakland Raiders after three straight losses, including blowouts at the hands of the Ravens and Saints in their last two contests. Well, the Ravens and Saints are two of the best teams in the league. This will be a much easier task Sunday against the 5-5 Bengals, who I believe are way overrated.

This play falls into a system that is 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.

This system just goes to show you how teams that have been blown out in recent weeks tend to show excellent value in their next contest. That's certainly the case in this one folks. Bet the Raiders Sunday.

15* Stanford/UCLA Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -1.5

The UCLA Bruins are in a huge letdown spot here. They picked up their biggest win in years with a 38-28 home victory over USC last Saturday, which won them the Pac-12 South title and a trip to the conference championship game.

Stanford is coming off a huge win over Oregon as well, but it still has some work to do to win the Pac-12 North. It would clinch the division title with a win over UCLA Saturday.

I'm not saying UCLA is going to let Stanford win, but it would much rather face the Cardinal in the Pac-12 Championship than Oregon. Either way, when you look at the scenario, there's no question that Stanford is going to be the more motivated team heading into this one.

A great way to compare teams is to look at common opponents. Stanford and UCLA have played the same six opponents this season. The Cardinal are 6-0 against those six teams, outscoring them by 15.0 points/game. The Bruins are 4-2 against those six teams, outscoring them by 11.5 points/game.

The Cardinal have by far the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 16.9 points/game overall, including 10.8 points/game on the road, while ranking 18th in the country in total defense (328.4 yards/game). UCLA is giving up 25.0 points/game while ranking 80th in total defense (420.4 yards/game).

Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with UCLA, outscoring the Bruins a combined 114-35. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Cardinal are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

The Cardinal are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 games overall. Stanford is 9-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons. Bet Stanford Saturday.

25* College Football BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -2.5

The Nittany Lions have been undervalued all season due to their problems off the field with the Sandusky scandal. On the field, this has been one of the best teams in the Big Ten. They have gone 7-4 overall, including 8-2-1 ATS to prove that they have been undervalued by oddsmakers all year.

This is Senior Day for Penn State, and since they are serving a postseason ban, they won

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +3

This is a huge letdown spot for Baylor after such a big win over Kansas State. It

15* Michigan/Ohio State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State -3.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes have incredibly managed to stay focused throughout the season despite knowing they have to serve a postseason ban. First-year head coach Urban Meyer has done an excellent job with these players, and there

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh -2

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have absolutely nothing to play for Saturday. They are in a two-way battle with Louisville for 1st place in the Big East. Well, they could lose this game against Pitt and beat Louisville next week to win the conference.

Even if Rutgers wins this game against Pitt, it would still need to beat Louisville next week to win the Big East provided the Cardinals beat UConn this week, which is almost a foregone conclusion. There's no question that these Rutgers players know that this is a meaningless game against Pitt.

Meanwhile, the Panthers still need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible, so it certainly means something to them. Plus, it would make their season to knock off the top team in the Big East this Saturday.

Pittsburgh will come in more prepared mentally and physically to win Saturday. Aside from the fact that Rutgers has nothing to play for, Pitt will be coming off its bye week. That means it will have two full weeks to rest and prepare for the Scarlet Knights.

This is Senior Day for the Panthers, and these players would love nothing more than to send senior quarterback Tino Sunseri out with a victory. Sunseri has completed 67.3 percent of his passes this season and has thrown only two interceptions - none in 202 attempts over his last seven games.

Pittsburgh is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 13.8 points/game. The Panthers are 11-2 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Pitt is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* LSU/Arkansas CBS Friday No-Brainer on Arkansas +12.5

The LSU Tigers don

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +15

The Iowa Hawkeyes should not be more than a two touchdown underdog at home to the Nebraska Cornhuskers Friday. Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Huskers aren't about to walk into it and crush the Hawkeyes.

Since Iowa is 4-7 on the season, it will not be going to a bowl game. On Senior Day, and with the motivation of trying to spoil Nebraska's season, the Hawkeyes are sure to give it everything they have. They will treat this contest like their bowl game since it will be the final time they take the field this season.

Nebraska is one of the most overrated teams in the entire country. It is nowhere near as good as its 9-2 record would indicate. The Huskers have gotten away with murder several times this season, squeaking out wins in the closing seconds in victories over Wisconsin (30-27), Northwestern (29-28), Michigan State (28-24) and Penn State (32-23). This team has simply caught all the breaks this season.

Iowa is 16-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992. It is winning in this spot by an average of 5.5 points per game. The Hawkeyes are 19-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992. It is winning in this spot by 10.5 points per game.

The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1992. Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Hawkeyes are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. loss. The Cornhuskers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Nebraska is 25-51-2 ATS in its last 78 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Iowa Friday.

15* TCU/Texas ESPN Thursday Night BAILOUT on TCU +7

The Horned Frogs clearly have the better defense in this one, which gives them a chance to keep it close. They are giving up 24.0 points per game this season while ranking 16th in the country in total defense at 326.3 yards per game. It is giving up a solid 374.3 yards per game in conference play, which is saying something in a league comprised of the best offenses in the country.

Texas is yielding 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 85th in the country in total defense at 429.6 yards per game. It has been horrible on this side of the ball in Big 12 play, giving up 34.7 points and 473.0 total yards per game. TCU is averaging 29.7 points and 427.1 total yards per game in conference play, so it should be able to move the ball and score points without a problem Thursday

TCU has played its best football on the road this season. It is 4-1 away from home this year while outscoring opponents 29.2 to 23.4, or by an average of 5.8 points per game. It has road wins over Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and SMU with its only loss coming at Oklahoma State.

The Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Longhorns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with TCU Thursday.

25* NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -3

The Cowboys are back into the NFC East race after their win over the Cleveland Browns last week. They now trail the New York Giants by just one game for the top spot in this division. When you look at the numbers, you could argue that Dallas is one of the top teams in the league, rather than one that is .500.

Dallas ranks 11th in the league in total offense at 367.4 yards per game and 7th in total defense at 318.0 yards per game. It is outgaining opponents by 49.4 yards per game, which is one of the better margins in the NFL. It is a sign that this team is better than its 5-5 record would indicate.

While Washington does have a good offense, it hasn

15* Texans/Lions NFL Early ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3

The Texans have been one of the top teams in the league this season. They have looked as impressive as anyone en route to their 9-1 start. Getting them as only a field goal favorite against anyone is certainly worth a look.

The Lions had a chance to get back in the playoff hunt if they were to beat the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. Instead, they gave the game away, blowing a 20-14 lead late to fall to 4-6 on the season. They now realize their playoff hopes are slim to none, and they are likely to suffer a hangover from that defeat.

Houston struggled with Jacksonville last week, needing overtime to dismantle the Jaguars 43-37. It was probably taking them too lightly and it likely wasn

15* Akron/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Akron +19.5

The Toledo Rockets likely won't even show up tonight. They were eliminated from the MAC title race with a 24-31 loss at Northern Illinois last Wednesday. With nothing to play for tonight, they won't bring the kind of effort it's going to take to cover this huge number against Akron.

The Zips want to end their season on a positive note since they will not be going to a bowl game. They have played some very good teams tough this season. They lost at Tennessee 26-47 as a 32-point underdog. They also lost at Ohio 28-34 as an 18-point dog, and at Kent State 24-35 as an 18.5-point dog.

Under first-year head coach Terry Bowden, the Zips have implemented a high-octane passing attack. They rank 14th in the country in passing offense (317.1 yards/game) and should be able to move the ball at will through the air against a Toledo defense that ranks 116th against the pass (298.8 yards/game).

Akron comes in the more rested team as it last played on November 10th against UMass. Toledo comes in on just five days' rest after playing on Wednesday, November 14th against Northern Illinois. That extra rest and preparation should make a big difference in this one.

Toledo is 13-27 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992. The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. Take Akron Tuesday.

20* Bears/49ers ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 36.5

The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears feature two of the best defenses in the league. They will play part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight in San Francisco on ESPN's Monday Night Football.

The 49ers rank No. 1 in the league in scoring defense at 14.1 points/game. They are also No. 2 in total defense at 292.1 yards/game.

The Bears rank No. 2 in the league in scoring defense at 14.8 points/game, just behind the 49ers. They are also No. 5 in total defense at 306.7 yards/game.

Chicago ranks just No. 26 in total offense at 316.0 yards/game. They were already going to have trouble moving the ball and scoring points on the 49ers even if Jay Cutler was healthy. Now, with Cutler out and Jason Campbell in, the Bears' offense will be lucky to reach double-digits in points.

The 49ers had been doing pretty well offensively at No. 12 in the league at 365.7 yards/game. That all changes tonight as they will also be without their starting quarterback, Alex Smith. With Colin Kaepernick under center, they will be much more conservative and looking to run the football even more.

The 49ers are 16-4 to the UNDER against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 19-8 in Bears last 27 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

PS - I put this total in before the news that Alex Smith would be out. Obviously, I like the UNDER even more with him out, and I like it down to 34.

15* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +4

The Steelers have been a resilient team with injuries all season. They have been without arguably their two best defensive players in Troy Polamalu and James Harrison for more than half the season, yet they

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5

Double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been incredible against the spread over the last several years. Oddsmakers have to set these spreads extra high to get even action on both sides in games featuring one team with one of the worst records in the NFL, and one with the best.

That provides "sharp bettors" such as myself a chance to back the undervalued underdog at a number that is better than it should be. Houston is not more than two touchdowns better than Jacksonville in this one, and I fully expect the Jaguars to take this one right down to the wire because of several different factors.

First, the Jaguars have played their best football on the road. That makes sense because they cannot be too excited to play at home when there are so many empty seats in the stands. Jacksonville is 1-3 SU but 3-0-1 ATS in road games this season. It won at Indianapolis 22-17, and it's three losses have come against the Vikings (23-26), Raiders (23-26) and Packers (15-24). As you can see, it stay within 9 points in all three of its road losses.

Houston finds itself in a letdown spot after a big win at Chicago on NBC's Sunday Night Football last week. It will have a hard time getting motivated to face a Jacksonville team that it already beat 27-7 on the road in the first meeting. The Texans will come into this game feeling like they just have to show up to win. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will be looking at this game like it's their Super Bowl.

This play falls into a system that is 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.

The Texan are 1-9 ATS vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Jaguars are 15-5 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. Jacksonville is 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +10

The Cardinals are coming off their bye week, which couldn

25* WAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State -3

The Utah State Aggies are one of the best teams in the country that not too many people know about. As a result, they continue going under the radar and killing the books at the pay window for people who are willing to back them. I am one of those people, and I will do so again Saturday.

Utah State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming on the road at Wisconsin and BYU by a combined 5 points. It missed a last second-field goal at Wisconsin, and it lost by only a field goal at BYU. This team has won by 7 points or more in all eight of its victories, including six wins by 22 points or more.

Louisiana Tech is obviously a quality team at 9-1, but it has played a much softer schedule than Utah State. Its lone loss came to Texas A&M at home, and its nine wins have come against Houston (4-6), Rice (4-6), Illinois (2-8), Virginia (4-7), UNLV (2-9), Idaho (1-9), New Mexico State (1-9), UTSA (6-4) and Texas State (3-6).

As you can see, only one of their nine wins have come against a team with a winning record, and those teams have combined for a 27-66 record. I would have to say that the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as their record, and that will show on the field Saturday.

Utah State is a complete team. It ranks 25th in the country in total offense (463.2 yards/game), including 40th in rushing (187.1 yards/game) and 33rd in passing (275.9 yards/game). It ranks 12th in total defense (303.3 yards/game), including 5th against the run (94.6 yards/game) and 37th against the pass (208.7 yards/game).

Unlike the Aggies, the Bulldogs have some weaknesses, especially on the defensive side of the ball, which will be the difference in this game. Louisiana Tech ranks 121st in total defense (505.7 yards/game), including 117th against the pass (337.8 yards/game). Utah State will get more stops than Louisiana Tech in this one.

Utah State is 9-0 ATS in all games this season. Once again, it is not getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as only a 3-point favorite against a much inferior Louisiana Tech team. Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on NC State +17

First and foremost, the NC State Wolfpack have the talent to stay with Clemson Saturday aside from any outside motivational factors. They proved that last season while knocking Clemson out of the Top 10 with a 37-13 victory over the Tigers.

Aside from the fact that NC State has the talent to hang with Clemson, a big reason I'm taking the Wolfpack is because this is a huge letdown spot for the Tigers. Florida State, a 31-point favorite over Maryland Saturday, would win the ACC Atlantic division with a win. A loss would send Clemson to the ACC title game if the Tigers beat the Wolfpack.

That FSU/Maryland game kicks off at 12:00 EST, and it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Seminoles are going to win against a Terrapins team playing with their 5th string QB. The Clemson/NC State game kicks off at 3:30 EST, and these Tigers players will surely get wind of the fact that FSU beat Maryland before kickoff.

With the realization that they won't be playing in the ACC Championship Game, the Tigers will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand with little to play for. Remember, this is an NC State team that handed Florida State its only loss of the season, so it has proven it can win big games.

Mike Glennon threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson in last season's 37-13 win. Glennon is having another solid season, completing 57.3 percent of his passes for 2,910 yards with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He will be able to keep the Wolfpack in this game with his ability to move the ball through the air.

NC State is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 16.0 points/game. The Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Clemson. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet NC State Saturday.

15* Wake Forest/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Wake Forest +24

While the Fighting Irish are 10-0 this season, they haven

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -3

The Trojans are the most talented three-loss team in the entire country. They gave Oregon by far their toughest game so far with a 62-51 home loss to the Ducks. Their other two losses came to Stanford and Arizona on the road by a combined 10 points.

UCLA didn

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -2.5

The Bowling Green Falcons and Kent State Golden Flashes have both had amazing seasons to this point with little expected out of them coming into the year. It's unfortunate that somebody has to lose this game, but at the same time it's amazing that the winner will have the inside track to the MAC East division title, which means a trip to the MAC Championship.

While I have a bunch of respect for both teams, I have no question that the right play is to back Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown. Kent State is at least getting some love from oddsmakers because of their win over Rutgers earlier this season, but Bowling Green continues to get no respect.

Remember, the Falcons are the team that took Florida right down to the wire in their opener. This was a 17-14 game heading into the 4th quarter before the Gators scored 10 unanswered points int he final period to win 27-14. Their other two losses came on the road against very good Virginia Tech and Toledo teams.

Bowling Green is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents 32.5 to 9.0, or by an average of 23.5 points/game. The biggest reason the Falcons are going to win this game is because of their defense, which ranks 6th in the country allowing just 285.4 yards/game.

More specifically, the Falcons have a huge edge in the ground game, which is where this contest will be won. Bowling Green ranks 14th in the country against the run (103.7 yards/game, 3.3/carry), so it will be able to limit a Kent State rushing attack that ranks 15th at 235.7 yards/game.

Kent State does not move the ball through the air very well, ranking just 111th in passing offense (166.7 yards/game). So, when Bowling Green shuts down their running game, the Golden Flashes will have nowhere to turn. Also, Kent State ranks just 77th in total defense (414.2 yards/game).

The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Bowling Green is 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take Bowling Green Saturday.

20* FIU/FAU Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -1.5

The Florida Atlantic Owls have gone under the radar all season. They have been an absolute money-making machine at the pay window because of it, covering eight straight against the spread. As only a 1-point home favorite here, they could easily earn their ninth straight cover.

There

20* Dolphins/Bills AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 46

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this Thursday night game between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. These are two desperate teams in need of a victory to get back in the playoff hunt in the AFC, and I look for it to be a defensive battle partly because of it.

Another reason I believe this will be a low-scoring affair is that fact that these are two of the worst offenses in the league. Miami is scoring just 19.2 points/game while ranking 25th in total offense (323.9 yards/game).

Buffalo's offensive numbers are a bit inflated because of two games against the Patriots, who it always seems to play in high-scoring games with. It scored 28 points and gained 438 total yards in the 1st meeting, and it scored 31 points while gaining 481 total yards in the second. The Bills still rank just 14th in total offense (359.1 yards/game) despite those two explosions against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

These teams have combined for 45 or less points in four of the last five meetings, which would make for an 80% system pertaining to tonight's total set of 46. Dating back further, nine of the last 12 meetings have seen 45 or fewer points.

Miami is 7-0 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Dolphins are 6-0 to the UNDER in November games over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games overall. These four trends combine for a 28-1 (97%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* UNC/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +3.5

While the Cavaliers are just 4-6 on the season, there

25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo +11

The Toledo Rockets represent my strongest MAC release for the entire 2012 college football season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight against the Northern Illinois Huskies.

Toledo is undervalued due to its 27-34 loss to Ball State last week. There's no question it was looking ahead to this game against Northern Illinois. That's because this game is a winner-take-all in the MAC West. The winner will have the inside track to the MAC title game.

The Rockets had their shot last year, but they fell 63-60 on November 1st to Northern Illinois. That loss cost them the MAC West title, and there's no doubt this team wants revenge. Toledo will be the more motivated team coming in.

Northern Illinois is way overvalued due to playing an extremely easy schedule this season en route to a 9-1 start. The Rockets have played a much tougher schedule and have managed to get through at 8-2. Both of their losses came by exactly 7 points to a pair of very solid Arizona and Ball State teams.

This play falls into a system that is 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N ILLINOIS) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%). Bet Toledo Wednesday.

15* Ohio/Ball State ESPNU Wednesday No-Brainer on Ohio +7

The Bobcats are still mathematically alive for the MAC East title considering they still get to play Kent State in the final game of the season. They would need some help for that game to even matter, but at this point they are still alive.

Despite two losses in their last three games, this is still an 8-win team that returned 14 starters from a team that won the MAC East title last year, including QB Tyler Tettleton. He may be the best signal caller in the MAC. Tettleton is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 198 yards and four scores.

Ohio is 3-1 on the road this season with its only loss coming at Miami (Ohio) by 3 points. I know the Bobcats lost to Bowling Green at home last week, but their defense played well enough to win that game, limiting the Falcons to just 288 total yards. Ball State hasn

20* Chiefs/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City +13.5

If the Chiefs would just take care of the football, they would be a really good team. At some point, they will quit giving the ball away, thus giving games away. This is certainly better than a 1-7 team when you look at the numbers outside of turnovers.

Kansas City ranks 16th in the league in total offense at 358.0 yards per game, and 16th in total defense at 347.5 yards per game allowed. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by 10.5 yards per game. That is a number more indicative of a team that is 4-4 or better rather than one that is 1-7.

Pittsburgh has tended to play down to its competition at times this season. Remember, this is a team that has losses to the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans, which is about as bad as it gets. The Steelers were a 10.5-point favorite last season against the Chiefs and only won by a final of 13-9.

The Steelers are expected to be without arguably their top playmakers offensively in wide receiver Antonio Brown (ankle). He is listed as doubtful, which will certainly take the Steelers

20* Texans/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5

The Houston Texans are the superior team in this game against Chicago and it will show on the field Sunday Night. The Texans were my pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and they have not disappointed. I did expect the Bears to make the playoffs, but not to be off to this good of a start.

Chicago's 7-1 start is a bit fluky given all of the defensive touchdowns they have come up with. They can't possibly keep this pace up on defense, and they have been forcing turnovers against a pretty soft schedule in the first half. Six of the eight teams the Bears have faced are .500 or worse on the season, and five of those teams have losing records.

Houston won't be giving the Bears any gifts like these other teams have. It has only turned the ball over six times all season. This is the most complete team in the league as it ranks in the Top 10 of turnover differential, yards per play differential, and sack percentage. There are just no weaknesses on their entire team.

Chicago's biggest weakness is an offense that isn't nearly explosive as it was supposed to be coming into the season. It ranks just 25th in total offense (324.4 yards/game), including 27th in passing offense (196.8 yards/game). Houston ranks 12th in total offense (371.7 yards/game) and 3rd in total defense (286.1 yards/game).

The Texans are a perfect 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 15.4 points/game in this spot. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 12.2 points/game in this situation.

Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 November games. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing the Texans. Bet Houston Sunday.

15* Jets/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New York +6.5

The Jets are coming off their bye week and it could not have come at a better them. Their bye will give them a chance to recover and refocus from two straight AFC East losses to the Patriots and Dolphins. This extra week of rest will make the flight from the East coast to the West a lot easier, and is shouldn

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Lions -1

The Detroit Lions are rolling right now, playing their best football of the season coming into this one. They have won back-to-back games over the Seahawks and Jaguars while scoring a combined 59 points in the process. Now, Detroit wants revenge from a 13-20 loss to Minnesota earlier this season.

That loss was a complete fluke as the Lions dominated the game, but the special teams lost it for them. They outgained the Vikings 341-227 for the game, but gave up two special teams touchdowns. One came on a 100-yard kickoff return by Percy Harvin, who is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. He is the Vikings best weapon and will certainly be missed.

I've been saying all year that Detroit is a better team than its record indicates, and it's certainly starting to show. The Lions rank 2nd in the league in total offense (410.9 yards/game) and 7th in total defense (320.6 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 90.3 yards/game this season. Minnesota is actually getting outgained on the season despite its 5-4 record.

The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Detroit is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a ATS win. The Lions are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. I'll back the better team playing the better football right now against a Minnesota team likely playing without arguably its best player. Take the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Chargers +3

The San Diego Chargers should not be catching points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday. Tampa Bay is getting way too much credit for its back-to-back wins over the Vikings and Raiders. That win over Minnesota was its only win against a team with a winning record this season, and I would be willing to lay a large bet that the Vikings don't finish with a winning record.

San Diego comes in on three extra days' rest after playing last Thursday in a 31-13 home win over the Kansas City Chiefs. San Diego is a better team than its 4-4 record would indicate, and its defense will be the reason it goes into Tampa Bay and comes away with a victory Sunday.

The Chargers rank 9th in the league in total defense (322.4 yards/game), including 4th against the run (84.0 yards/game). Its ability to stop the run is huge considering the Bucs rely on Doug Martin and their rushing attack so much.

Tampa Bay's defense is the reason it will lose this game. The Bucs rank a woeful 28th in the league in total defense (398.4 yards/game), including dead last against the pass (321.1 yards/game). Philip Rivers is going to have a huge day against this soft Bucs' secondary.

The Buccaneers are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games. Tampa is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. San Diego is 15-5 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

15* Falcons/Saints NFC South No-Brainer on New Orleans +3

While the Saints are just 3-5 this season, there