15* 49ers/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +7

The San Francisco 49ers could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now. They have barely even come close to covering the spread in each of their last three games while getting outscored a combined 28-107 by the Steelers, Cardinals and Packers. But those are three of the best teams in the NFL, and now the 49ers get to take a step down in competition. The good news is that the betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so we’re certainly getting a lot of value here with this 7-point spread.

The opposite is true for the Giants. The betting public sees two impressive double-digits wins over the Redskins (32-21) at home and the Bills (24-10) on the road and thinks that the Giants are all of a sudden juggernauts. As a result, oddsmakers have to set this spread higher than it should be. While I do believe the Giants are a slightly better team than the 49ers, they shouldn’t be favored by 4 points on a neutral field, which is what this line is suggesting they would be.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Giants aren’t nearly as good of a team as this line would indicate. They actually rank 24th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 50.2 yards per game on the season. They are 26th in the league in total defense at 386.0 yards per game and 22nd in total offense at 335.8 yards per game. Those aren’t the kind of numbers that warrant being this big of a favorite.

One of the reasons the Giants are overvalued here is because they are already +6 in turnover differential on the season. One of the reasons the 49ers are undervalued is because they are -5 in turnover differential thus far. Turnovers have a way of evening themselves out over the course of the season, too.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) – who are getting outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 111-57 (66.1%) ATS since 1983. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Seattle +3

The Seattle Seahawks simply need this game more than the Bengals after their 2-2 start. This is a team that started 4-4 last year and went on to win each of their final eight games of the season. That’s why I’m not too concerned about the slow start because their losses have come against two quality teams on the road in the Rams and Packers. I still believe this is arguably the best team in football, and probably the best team in the NFC for sure, if it’s not the Packers.

Having Kam Chancellor back has made this Seattle defense absolutely dominant the last two weeks. They haven’t given up a defensive touchdown in either of their past two games as the only TD the Lions scored last week came on a fumble by Russell Wilson. They held the Bears to just 146 total yards and the Lions to 256 yards, or an average of 201 yards per game the past two weeks.

Give Cincinnati credit for its 4-0 start, but this is not an elite team. Wins over the Raiders, Chargers, Ravens and Chiefs aren’t great as those teams are a combined 6-10. This will be by far the best team that the Bengals have faced yet in the Seahawks. Andy Dalton has played well up to this point against those other defenses, but he’s in for a rude awakening against the best defense in the NFL this week.

For this to be a 3-point spread, oddsmakers are indicating that Cincinnati is an equal to Seattle. They are saying that the line would be a pick ’em on a neutral field. Well, I strongly believe the Seahawks are the better team and should be favored by at least 3 points on a neutral field, which means this line should be no more than a Pick 'Em. Rarely will you get the opportunity to back them as an underdog, and we’ll take advantage of that this week.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. The Seahawks are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS loss. Seattle is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +6

The Philadelphia Eagles have the most ruthless fans in the NFL. They are already disappointed with their team this season, and if things just go slightly wrong to start this game, the boo birds will be out early and often. That was the case in their lone home game this season, a 10-20 loss to the Cowboys that was their worst performance of the year.

The Eagles really don’t have a home-field advantage as they have actually played better on the road over the past few years, so they are constantly overvalued at home. Indeed, the Eagles are 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 home games overall. We are getting pretty good value here in backing the Saints as 6-point underdogs as we’re getting a few key numbers in there to boot.

I’m not so sure that the Saints aren’t the better team, either. Despite being 1-3 on the season, the Saints are actually outgaining opponents by 5.7 yards per game this year. They are at least an average team in this league, and they are going to be coming in with confidence after the resilience they showed in taking down the Cowboys last week. They also got C.J. Spiller finally involved in the offense, and having him as a weapon for Drew Brees going forward will make this unit more explosive.

The Saints are still 6th in the NFL in total offense at 387.2 yards per game, and that’s even with Brees missing the Carolina game. But look for big-time improvement from this defense going forward. There are several rookies who have already stepped up and played big roles for this defense. But the Saints also just got back two of their best veterans in safety Jairus Byrd and corner Keenan Lewis last week. Both played on a limited bases, but both should be able to play more snaps this week.

Without question, Philadelphia is one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Eagles are not explosive at all on offense, and the losses along the offensive line are taking their toll. The Eagles rank 29th in the NFL in total offense at 294.0 yards per game, and 21st in total defense at 373.5 yards per game. They are 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 79.5 yards per game. That’s the sign of a very bad team and one that should not be favored this heavily at home against the Saints.

The Eagles are only averaging 70 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. That’s putting too much pressure on Sam Bradford, who hasn’t been able to deliver. The Eagles only managed 226 total yards and committed three turnovers in their 10-20 home loss to the Cowboys. They also mustered just 231 total yards on the road against the Jets and were very fortunate to win that game 24-17 thanks to the help of an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles.

The Saints have won their last three matchups against the Eagles, including the postseason, with two of those victories coming in Philadelphia and five of the last six.  Philadelphia is dealing with some key injuries of its own, too. LB Kiko Alonso is out, while DE Cedric Thornton, DE Taylor Hart, LB Mychal Kendricks, CB Byron Maxwell and OT Jason Peters are all questionable with various injuries.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

25* NFC Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Redskins +7.5

The Washington Redskins may be the most underrated team in the NFL this season. They could easily be 4-0 with the numbers they have put up to this point. When you look at the numbers alone, I would argue that the Redskins are actually the better team in this matchup. I was on them last week against the Eagles, and I’m on them again this week catching just over a touchdown to the Falcons.

Washington has outgained each of its first four opponents. It outgained Miami by 93 yards, St. Louis by 160 yards, New York by 30 yards, and Philadelphia by 97 yards. It is outgaining teams by an average of 95.0 yards per game, which is the second-best mark in the NFL behind the Arizona Cardinals. That’s the sign of a very good team and one that should not be catching more than a touchdown this week.

The Redskins rank 8th in the NFL in total offense at 383.0 yards per game. They have a two-headed monster at running back in Alfred Morris and Matt Jones, and Kirk Cousins is playing the best football of his career. But the biggest improvement on this team has come on defense, where the Redskins rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 288.0 yards per game.

Despite being 4-0 on the season, the Falcons only rank 14th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 12.8 yards per game. While they clearly have one of the league’s best offenses, their defense is not as improved as everyone makes it out to be. The Falcons are giving up 390.5 yards per game to rank 28th in the NFL in total defense. They are also giving up 6.2 yards per play against opposing offenses who only average 5.4 yards per play.

The Falcons are overvalued right now because everything went right in their 48-21 win over the Texans last week, covering the spread by more than 20 points.  But you have to remember that Atlanta had to come from behind in each of its first three games to beat the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants.

One huge factor here that's getting overlooked is new Atlanta offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan.  He was the offensive coordinator at Washington last year.  That will give the Redskins a huge advantage because they know his playbook.  The Redskins simply aren't getting the respect they deserve in this game.

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games following a blowout win by 21 or more points. It is losing in this spot by an average of 11.8 points per game. The Falcons are 3-20 ATS in their last 23 home games following a home win. Atlanta is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following three or more consecutive ATS wins. The Falcons are simply overvalued right now due to their 4-0 ATS start.  Bet the Redskins Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans Money Line +120

The Tennessee Titans are getting no love from the oddsmakers this season.  There's no doubt in my mind that after seeing three games out of them that they are one of the most improved teams in the NFL.  But because they are just 1-2 when they could easily be 3-0, they remain undervalued this week.

After crushing Tampa Bay 42-14 on the road in Week 1, the Titans lost 14-28 at Cleveland in Week 2.  But they had several self-inflicted wounds in that game as they were -3 in turnover differential.  They actually outgianed the Browns by 111 total yards in that loss.  They then blew a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter to Indianapolis and lost 33-35 at home in Week 3 despite outgaining the Colts by 55 yards.

Now the Titans return from their bye week pissed off an wanting a win to get back to .500.  Statistically, the Titans have been one of the best teams in the NFL.  They are outgaining teams by an average of 67.4 yards per game while averaging 375.7 yards on offense and only giving up 308.3 yards on defense.  They rank 5th in the entire NFL in yardage differential this season.

The Bills are perceived to be the better team because they are 2-2 with wins over the Dolphins and Colts and a "close" loss to New England, 32-40.  But that game against the Patriots was a blowout until the Bills scored 19 points in 4th quarter garbage time.  The Bills actually rank 21st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 18.3 yards per game this season.  Their defense isn't as good as perceived, either, giving up 376.3 yards per game.

While the Titans are pretty much fully healthy coming into this one, the Bills clearly are not.  They are going to be without their top two running backs in LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams, while their top WR in Sammy Watkins is doubtful with a calf injury.  They even had to sign a running back this week in Dan Herron because their 3rd-stringer in Boobie Dixon is banged up as well.  This is just a very bad spot for this Buffalo offense against an improved, hungry Tennessee defense.  Take the Titans on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +21.5

Being 0-5 really has the Wyoming Cowboys undervalued right now.  I've been impressed with the way they've played against some solid teams in Washington State, New Mexico and Appalachian State the last three weeks.  I have no doubt that they can hang around against Air Force and easily stay within 3 touchdowns this week.

Wyoming outgained Washington State 409-378 in a 14-31 road loss at 25.5-point favorites in a game that was closer than the final score.  Wyoming was only outgained 408-409 in a 28-38 home loss to New Mexico as 4-point underdogs.  The Cowboys also outgained Appalachian State 373-314 in a 13-31 road loss at 26-point dogs last week in a game that was also closer than the final score.  Those three performances, especially the way they played defensively against a great Appalachian State offense, makes me believe they can hang around for four quarters.

Air Force is coming off a griding 11-33 road loss at Navy last week that had to take a lot out of them.  Now they'll be up against another run-heavy offense in Wyoming, which averages 169 yards per game.  But the Cowboys are vastly improved offensively this season due to the addition of former Indiana transfer Carson Coffman, averaging 228 passing yards per game.  Coffman is completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 1,087 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions on the year.

Wyoming has owned Air Force the past two seasons.  It beat Air Force 17-13 at home last year as 1-point underdogs, and rolled to a 56-23 road win in 2013 as 4-point favorites.  I see no way that Air Force should be this heavily favored a year later, but the fact that the Cowboys are 0-5 has them so undervalued right now as stated before.

Air Force is 3-17 ATS in home games after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.  The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Cowboys area perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Air Force.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Cal/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on California +8

I believe that Utah Utes to be overvalued here. The last impression the betting public has of them is beating Oregon 62-20 on the road and covering the spread by 52.5 points. They see that result and think that Utah is all of a sudden an elite team, and most of the bets are on Utah because of it. But this line has been dropping since opening at 8, which means the big money is on California, and I agree that it should be.

There’s no doubt that any win in Eugene is a good one, but this Oregon team is clearly down with two losses already. The Ducks rank 103rd in the country in total defense as they are giving up 441.4 yards per game this season. Not to mention, starting quarterback Vernon Adams was hurt in the Utah game and only attempted seven passes, one of which went for a touchdown. So the Ducks had to alter their gameplan and went with backup Jeff Lockie for the final three quarters. It was a 6-6 game before Adams went out with an injury.

What concerns me most about this Utah team is its performance in the previous three games. It beat Michigan 24-17 at home despite getting outgained by 18 yards, it beat Utah State 24-14 at home despite getting outgained by 46 yards, and it only outgained Fresno State by 15 yards in its 45-24 road win. That’s the same Fresno State team that has lost to Ole Miss by 52, San Jose State by 26 and San Diego State by 14.

I also believe that the No. 5 national ranking will go to Utah players’ heads this week. It has been a bad omen to be this highly ranked, just ask Ohio State, Michigan State and Ole Miss. Ohio State is 1-4 against the spread this season, Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread, and Ole Miss is 0-2 against the spread with an ugly loss to Florida ever since being ranked No. 3. With a high ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that is hard to live up to week to week.

California is probably the most improved team in the entire country this season. You could make a case for other teams for sure, but the fact that the Golden Bears are 5-0 when their season win total was 5.5 speaks volumes about how far this team has come. Of course, it wasn’t a surprise to me because they returned 17 starters and were projected to have all 22 upperclassmen starters as juniors or seniors. Don’t look now, but the Golden Bears are legitimate contenders to win the Pac-12 this season.

After thumping Grambling and San Diego State a combined 108-21 in its first two games, California led Texas 45-24 in the fourth quarter on the road but only ended up winning 45-44 after a missed extra point by Texas. That game was obviously a bigger blowout than the final score showed, but most folks look at a close win like that over a down Texas team and don’t give the Golden Bears much respect.

Two weeks ago, Cal went on the road and beat Washington 30-24 in another game that was a bigger blowout than the score showed. Cal outgained Washington by 222 total yards and its defense held the Huskies to just 259 yards while forcing five turnovers. A 34-28 win over Washington State last week also has the betting public concerned with this team as they only outgained the Cougars by 66 yards. But that was clearly a letdown spot for the Golden Bears as they were coming off two big road wins over Texas & Washington with this big road game against Utah on deck.

California has one of the best offenses in the country. It is putting up 43.4 points, 527.8 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play against opponents who allow 35.3 points, 443 yards per game and 5.8 per play. Jared Goff is a possible No. 1 draft pick and can keep the Golden Bears in any game. The junior is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,630 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt.

The defense is improved, too, allowing 23.4 points and 387 yards per game this year.  Just to show how improved this defense is, let's look at what they did last year compared to this year.  They allowed 90 points and nearly 1,200 total yards in losses to Washington and Washington State last year.  This year, they held those two teams to a combined 52 points and 662 total yards, cutting the numbers nearly in half.

The numbers just don’t add up for Utah. They are outscoring teams by 20.0 yards per game despite only outgaining them by 20.0 yards per game. This is the sign of an overrated team and one that won’t be able to live up to that No. 5 ranking. California is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games overall. The Utes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Kyle Whittingham is 7-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  Bet California Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -2.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in college football.  This is a team you need to keep your eye on going forward.  They were much better than their 3-9 record last year, and they returned 16 starters from that team.  In the end, I look for the Spartans to be one of the most improved teams in the country when it's all said and done.

After a slow start to the season with road losses against quality opponents in Air Force and Oregon State, the Spartans have looked much better the last two weeks.  They crushed Fresno State 49-23 at home while outgaining them by a whopping 296 total yards and limiting the Bulldogs to just 247 yards of total offense.

I was just as impressed with their 21-35 loss at Auburn last week as they outgained the Tigers by 64 yards and had every chance to win that game, but they finished -4 in turnover differential.  If they can hang with a team the caliber of Auburn, there's no doubt they should crush arguably the worst team in the Mountain West in UNLV this week.

This is a rebuilding year for UNLV, which went just 2-11 last year and returned 10 starts from that team.  UNLV has managed to go 2-3 to this point, but its two wins have come against Idaho State and Nevada, which is down this year as well.  It was beat by 21 at Michigan, by 34 at home to UCLA, and by 8 at Northern Illinois, which has lost three straight games as we speak.

The numbers for San Jose State are very impressive.  It is putting up 439.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play offensively, while giving up 333.0 yards per game and 5.2 per play defensively.  That's even more impressive when you consider the quality of competition faced so far in New Hampshire, Air Force, Oregon State, Fresno State and Auburn.

San Jose State has owned UNLV in recent years, too.  It is 5-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last five meetings.  It beat UNLV 34-24 on the road in 2013 while outgaining the Rebels 492-351.  Last year the Spartans crushed the Rebels 33-10 at home while holding a 542-221 yard edge as well.  This game won't be close, either.

San Jose State is 18-5 ATS as a road favorite since 1992.  UNLV is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a road win over a conference opponent.  The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  The Spartans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take San Jose State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +15.5

The Boise State Broncos could not possibly be more overvalue than they are right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since losing 24-35 at BYU.  Now only are they winning, they are dominating by outscoring Idaho State, Virginia & Hawaii a combined 161-14 while covering the spread by a combined 81 points.  It's safe to say that the betting public is all over them now, driving this line up from -11.5 to -15.5.  This is the perfect time to sell high on the Broncos.

It's also a great time to buy low on Colorado State, which has gone 1-3 straight up in its last four games and 0-2-1 ATS in its last three.  The Rams could easily be 4-1 right now instead of 2-3, but they lost in overtime to a pair of Power 5 conference teams in Minnesota (20-23) and Colorado (24-27).  This is still a very good team that returned 15 starters from a squad that went 10-3 last year.

Despite being just 2-3, the Rams have put up impressive numbers that lead me to believe they are much better than their record.  Their offense is averaging 32.0 points and 444.2 yards per game, while their defense is giving up just 361.6 yards per game, so they are outgaining teams by roughly 83 yards per contest.  But what has held them down is the sixth-most turnovers (14) in the FBS, which is kind of fluky and will turn around.

After playing three straight cupcakes in Idaho State, Virginia & Hawaii, Boise State will meet its match this week.  The other two games that Boise State have played are BYU and Washington, which are their two toughest opponents outside of Colorado State up to this point.  They only beat Washington 16-13 as 13-point home favorites, and they lost to BYU 24-35 as 2-point road favorites.

Colorado State has played Boise State very tough the last two years.  It lost 30-42 at home as 7-point dogs back in 2013 and should have won that game as it outgained the Broncos 626-437.  The Rams were only beaten 24-37 as 7.5-point road underdogs last year as well.  As you'll notice, the lines for those two games were right around a touchdown, and the line for this 2015 meeting is 15.5.  That fact alone shows you how overvalued this Broncos team is right now.

The Rams are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Colorado State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Take Colorado State Saturday.

15* Navy/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on Navy +14

This is a very tough spot for Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest game of the season last week in a 22-24 loss at Clemson where they missed a 2-point conversion late that would have forced overtime.  Now they will suffer a hangover from that loss.  They'll also be looking ahead to their next huge game against USC next week.  They won't bring the kind of focus it takes to put away a very good Navy team by more than two touchdowns.

That has been the case each of the last two seasons, too.  Navy only lost 34-38 at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs in 2013.  It was only outgained 419-506 by the Fighting Irish.  Navy also only lost 39-49 on a neutral field to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs last year.  The Midshipmen were only outgained 454-533 in the loss.  Now this is the best team Navy has had in quite some time.

Indeed, Navy is a perfect 4-0 this season with four wins by double-digits.  That includes a 45-21 win over an ECU team that nearly upset Florida and did upset Virginia Tech.  That also includes a 33-11 win over an Air Force team that won 10 games last year and is solid again this season.  Keenan Reynolds is the best triple-option QB that Navy has ever had.  He has rushed for 488 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season.  He is great with the football, too, as the Midshipmen have only turned the ball over once this year.

Navy is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.  It is actually outscoring these favorites by 5.3 points per game in this spot.  The Midshipmen are 73-35 ATS in their last 108 road games overall.  Notre Dame is 1-10 ATS in home games vs. awful passing teams that average 125 or fewer passing yards per game since 1992.  The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +11

This is an awful spot for Texas Tech, which is a big reason why this line is dropping when the betting public is all over the Red Raiders.  That means the big money is coming in on Iowa State, and I couldn't agree more that it should be this week.

Texas Tech is coming off a grueling 3-week stretch in which it has faced Arkansas, TCU and Baylor.  After beating Arkansas and nearly upsetting TCU, the Red Raiders couldn't keep up with Baylor in a 35-63 loss last week.  Now they'll really have nothing left in the tank to face Iowa State.  They also won't be able to get up for this game after playing three big-time opponents in a row.

That seems to be the case every time Texas Tech plays Iowa State as it doesn't take the Cyclones seriously.  Iowa State hasn't lost by more than 11 to Texas Tech in any of the last five seasons.  The Red Raiders won 34-31 last year, 42-35 in 2013 as 14-point favorites, and 24-13 in 2012.  Iowa State won 41-7 in 2011 as 15.5-point dogs and 52-38 in 2010 as 6.5-point dogs.  So the Cyclones have actually outscored the Red Raiders 172-145 in the last five meetings.

This is clearly an improved Iowa State team that could easily be 4-0 right now.  It has rolled at home over both Northern Iowa (31-7) and Kansas (38-13).  It led Iowa 17-10 in the second half before eventually losing 17-31 as the Hawkeyes tacked on a garbage TD late.  That's the same Iowa team that is 5-0 and just won at Wisconsin last week. The Cyclones also lost 23-30 at Toledo in double-overtime after missing a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it.  That's the same Toledo team that went on the road and beat Arkansas.  The Cyclones actually outgained the Rockets by 172 total yards in that game and never should have lost.

Plays against a home team (TEXAS TECH) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after a loss by 28 or more points are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games over the last three seasons.  It is losing 29.2 to 51.0 on average in this spot.  The Red Raiders will come out flat Saturday and will likely get upset by the Cyclones, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

25* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +3.5

I would strongly argue that Tennessee should be 5-0 right now, but because this team is just 2-3, it is undervalued coming into this game against Georgia. I was high on the Volunteers coming into the season as I believed they were the best team in the SEC East. Despite the 2-3 record, I still feel like they are the best team in this side of the conference.

The Vols held a 17-3 lead over Oklahoma at home before allowing 14 points in the fourth quarter and eventually losing in double-overtime. They had a 27-14 lead over Florida with just over four minutes remaining before giving up two late touchdowns and losing 28-27 on the road. They also held a 14-0 lead over Arkansas last week before blowing it and losing 24-20 at home. That’s three double-digit blown leads in all three of their losses, which is nearly impossible.

The Volunteers have obviously played an extremely difficult schedule up to this point, too, which has them battle-tested heading into this game. Oklahoma and Florida are both ranked in the Top 11 and unbeaten. Florida rolled Ole Miss last week, while Oklahoma crushed West Virginia. Arkansas is still a very solid team, and Bowling Green is one of the best non-Power 5 teams in the country. That tough schedule will aid the Vols in what is clearly a must-win game for them if they want to win the SEC East.

Georgia was exposed last week after playing a cake schedule in its first four games. I was all over Alabama last week because Georgia hadn’t played anyone. The Bulldogs first four opponents were Louisiana-Monroe, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern with three of those games at home. In their only road game, they did beat Vanderbilt 31-14, but that game was closer than the final score. The Bulldogs only outgained the Commodores 422-400, or by 22 total yards. Allowing 400 yards to Vanderbilt was a sign of things to come for them last week.

Georgia was rocked 10-38 at home by Alabama as its one-dimensional rushing attack was shut down. The Crimson Tide forced four Georgia turnovers, including three by their quarterbacks. Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey finished a combined 11 of 31 passing for 106 yards with three interceptions against Alabama. The Bulldogs’ one-dimensional offense will have a hard time moving the ball on this improved Tennessee defense this week, too.

Not only is Tennessee motivated following three double-digit blown leads this year, it is also motivated from four straight crushing losses to Georgia. Indeed, the Bulldogs have won each of the last four meetings with Tennessee by 8 points or less. They won 20-12 in 2011, 51-44 in 2012, 34-31 (OT) in 2013, and 35-32 in 2014. But this will be by far the best Tennessee team that Georgia has faced during this span.  The Vols have a bye week on deck, so their entire focus will be on this game.  It’s simply revenge time for the Volunteers Saturday as they put their best foot forward this week.

One thing to look for is the advantage that Tennessee is going to have on special teams, too.  Georgia ranks last in the nation in kickoff returns at only 14 yards per return.  Georgia also ranks 119th in the country in punting with a net average of 32 net yards.  Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in kickoff returns and 6th in punting.  Winning the field position battle will aid them this week as well.

This is also a hangover spot for the Bulldogs as that game against Alabama last week was supposed to be the game of the week in college football.  Mark Richt is 3-11 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent as the head coach at Georgia.  He hasn't been good at getting his players to respond following a bad loss in SEC play.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14

The UMass Minutemen are showing solid value as two-touchdown underdogs to the Bowling Green Falcons Saturday. The betting public has fallen in love with Bowling Green the last few weeks and have been paid off handsomely for the most part.  They public loves their high-scoring offense, so they aren't afraid to lay a big number like this one.  But there's clearly value with UMass because of it.

Bowling Green had covered the spread in three straight games with a 48-27 win at Maryland, a 41-44 loss to Memphis at home, and a 35-28 win at Purdue.  The public was all over them last week, driving their line at Buffalo all the way up to -8 after starting out around -3.  The Falcons failed to cover with a 28-22 win.  That hasn't stopped the public from driving this line up from -12.5 to -14, though.

UMass is certainly an underrated team that I have been impressed with despite a 1-3 start.  Its three losses have come on the road to Colorado, at home to Temple, and at Notre Dame.  I was very impressed with a 23-25 loss to Temple as 13.5-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 20 yards against a Temple team that is 4-0 with impressive wins over Penn State and Cincinnati.

But the Minutemen were even more impressive last week in their 24-14 home win over Florida International.  Sure, the score looks close, but it was anything but close.  UMass actually outgained FIU by 307 total yards in the win.  It racked up 495 yards of total offense, while also coming through with by far its best defensive performance of the year while holding the Panthers to 188 total yards.  That's a good sign coming into this week against this high-octane BG attack.

UMass proved last year that it can score with Bowling Green.  It only lost 42-47 as 5.5-point home underdogs.  The Minutemen racked up 638 total yards on this Bowling Green defense last year.  Blake Frohnapfel, one of the most underrated QB's in the country, threw for 589 yards and five touchdowns against one interception in the loss.  Frohnapfel should find plenty of success through the air against a Bowling Green defense that is allowing 36.0 points and 482.4 yards per game this season.

UMass is 8-1 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last two years.  UMass is 6-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons.  Bowling Green is giving up 64.1% completions and 295 yards per game through the air this year.  Roll with UMass Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Texas Red River Rivalry Play on Texas +17

The Sooners could not possibly be much more overvalued than they are right now. They are coming off a 20-point win over West Virginia in their Big 12 opener last week. They forced five WVU turnovers which turned a close game into a blowout real quickly. Don’t expect them to be so fortunate in the turnover department again this week.

The betting public just remembers what happened last week, which is why the Sooners are overvalued. But the fact of the matter is that Oklahoma struggled in its two previous games. It had to erase a 17-3 deficit to Tennessee in the fourth quarter to win in overtime, and then it only beat Tulsa by 14 despite being 33.5-point favorites. They gave up a whopping 603 total yards to the Golden Hurricane in that game.  This team still has plenty of flaws and will struggle to put away the Longhorns by more than 17 points.

At the same time, Texas couldn’t be more undervalued right now. It is coming off a 50-7 road loss to TCU as 14-point underdogs, failing to cover the spread by 29 points. The Longhorns didn’t even score until just over five minutes to play in that game. The betting public sees that kind of loss and wants nothing to do with the Longhorns this week, forcing the oddsmakers to give them extra points.

But I know that Texas easily could have beaten two very good teams in California and Oklahoma State the previous two weeks, who are both ranked in the Top 25 and are a combined 10-0. They lost to California 44-45 despite outgaining the Bears by 102 total yards as they missed an extra point at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. They also missed a late field goal against Oklahoma State and lost 27-30. Those two efforts show what the Longhorns are capable of. After two crushing losses like that, it was only human nature for them to suffer a hangover last week at TCU.

The betting public has written off Texas each of the last two years heading into the Red River Rivalry, too. Texas was a 13.5-point underdog in 2013 and pulled off the outright upset in a dominant 36-20 win as it outgained Oklahoma 445-263. Last year, Texas was a 16.5-point underdog to Oklahoma and lost 26-31. But there’s no way the Longhorns should have lost that game when you consider they outgained the Sooners 482-232, or by 250 total yards. The Longhorns usually bring their best game against the Sooners, and I look for that to be the case again this year.

Charlie Strong is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced zero turnovers in all games he has coached. Strong is 13-2 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games in October.  Take Texas Saturday.

25* NC State/VA Tech CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2

Any time you can get Virginia Tech as a home underdog, or as a favorite of less than 3, it's worth a look. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Hokies as underdogs or small favorites there. Everyone is quick to count the Hokies out after their slow start to the season, which has provided some nice line value here to swoop in and back them.

Virginia Tech will come in determined after back-to-back losses to very good East Carolina and Pittsburgh teams by a combined 11 points. After all, the Hokies had the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes on the ropes in the opener at Lane Stadium before giving up 28 unanswered points and losing 24-42.

This is still a very talented Virginia Tech team that returned 16 starters from last year. Obviously, the loss of starting quarterback Michael Brewer to injury in the opener has set this team back. But they have outgained three of their last four opponents. They outgained Furman by 329 yards in a 42-3 win, outgained Purdue by 206 yards in a 51-24 road win, and outgained ECU by 29 yards despite losing 28-35 on the road.

After two straight losses, the Hokies are going to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field and make amends Friday night. They have the type of defense that will shut down this NC State offense. The Hokies are only giving up 355.4 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 47% of their passes against what is one of the best secondaries in the country.

NC State is overrated due to such a soft non-conference schedule. Its first four opponents this season were Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion and South Alabama. Yes, the Wolfpack blew out all four opponents by 24 points or more, but you would expect that from a Power 5 team against that kind of competition.

The Wolfpack had their first true test last week against Louisville, and they failed miserably. They lost 13-30 at home and were outgained by 78 yards in that contest. Their offense only managed 228 total yards in the loss. That’s a Louisville defense that isn’t nearly as good as the one the Wolfpack will be up against Friday. Louisville has allowed 34 points to Houston and 31 to Auburn this season.

Virginia Tech is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games following a poor offensive performance where it gained 3.75 or fewer yards per game. The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Hokies are 41-17-2 ATS in their last 60 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Virginia Tech is the more battle-tested team coming into this one after playing the much tougher schedule up to this point.  Bet VA Tech Friday.

20* Washington/USC Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC -16.5

I still believe that the USC Trojans are one of the best teams in the country and a legitimate national title contender even though they lost to Stanford. The Cardinal simply wanted that game more after losing to the Trojans by a field goal each of the two previous seasons. The Cardinal always play the Trojans tough, too.

But USC proved in its last game that it is every bit as good as I thought it was. It went into Tempe and throttled Arizona State 42-14 as 4-point favorites. It racked up 455 total yards of offense behind five touchdown passes from Cody Kessler, and the defense forced four turnovers in the win.

Washington simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Kessler and this high-octane USC offense. The Trojans are putting up 46.7 points, 532.0 yards per game and 8.1 per play against teams that are only allowing 31.2 points, 408 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kessler is a Heisman Trophy contender, completing 73 percent of his passes for 1,297 yards with 15 touchdowns and only one interception through four games.

The Huskies were thoroughly outplayed in both of their losses to Boise State and California, which were bigger blowouts than the final scores would indicate. They were outgained by 158 yards in their 13-16 road loss to Boise State, and by 222 yards in their 24-30 home loss to California. But because those scores were close, the oddsmakers are giving the Huskies too much credit here.

Washington only managed 179 total yards against Boise State and 259 total yards against California. While Boise State does have a good defense, California’s stop unit is not very good this season. I believe this USC defense will be the best that the Huskies have faced yet, too. It would be hard to envision this Washington offense topping 14 points in this game Thursday night. That’s going to make it very difficult for the Huskies to stay within 17 points.

Plays against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Washington) in a game involving two excellent passing teams who average at least 8.3 yards per attempt, after allowing 8 or more yards/attempt in their previous game are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1992. Cal’s Jared Goff threw for 342 yards on this Washington defense last week. USC is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a road blowout win by 28 points or more.  Bet USC Thursday.

15* Colts/Texans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Houston -2

This line is indicating that Andrew Luck will be playing, otherwise the Texans would be much bigger favorites. I believe there is value with the Texans since he is expected to play because he’s not 100%. Plus, the Colts have all kinds of other issues outside of Luck, especially defensively.

Indeed, the Colts gave up 431 total yards to the Jaguars last week and should have lost. They are allowing 387.5 yards per game and 5.8 per play against opposing offenses who are averaging 359 yards per game and 5.7 per play. They just cannot stop anybody, and they are going to have a hard time slowing down this improved Houston offense.

Arian Foster saw the field on a limited bases against Atlanta last week. But now he should be ready for a full workload, and this offense is even better when that’s the case. The Texans have still put up impressive numbers offensively, averaging 384.2 yards per game on the season even without the services of Foster.  But make no mistake, this offense goes as Foster goes.

Yes, Houston is giving up 27.0 points per game, but that’s very fluky because they are only allowing 344.0 yards per game defensively. That point total is inflated due to non-offensive touchdowns by the opposition, which the Texans need to limit going forward. Houston is actually outgaining teams by 40.2 yards per game this season, while Indianapolis is getting outgained by 48.8 yards per game.

This is more of a must-win game for the Texans than it is for the Colts. The Texans have started 1-3 this year and cannot afford to drop to 1-4. If they win this game, they easily could be tied for the division lead. Bill O’Brien will certainly have his team fired up after the embarrassment that happened in Atlanta last week.

Plays on any team (Houston), a slow starting offensive team that averages 7 or fewer points per game in the first half, after allowing 40 points or more last game are 56-26 (68.3%) ATS since 1983. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after gaining less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Take the Texans Thursday.

20* Lions/Seahawks ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Seattle -9.5

Getting Kam Chancellor back certainly made a huge difference for this Seattle defense last week. Of course, it helped that they were up against Jimmy Clausen and the Bears, but to shut out any team is impressive. The Seahawks only allowed 146 total yards to the Bears. All 12 of Chicago’s possessions ended in punts, which is mighty impressive.

Seattle got its offense going last week as well in its 26-0 victory. It put up 371 total yards with 159 rushing and 212 passing despite Marshawn Lynch only getting five carries. Thomas Rawls took the place of an injured Lynch and rushed 16 times for 104 yards in the win. That’s important because Lynch may not play this week as he’s questionable with a hamstring injury.

The Lions are simply that bad that I’m willing to go against them here as 9.5-point underdogs. I usually look for dogs, but I cannot see any reason to take them this week. Jim Caldwell just doesn’t have the attention of his team, and Golden Tate said this week that other teams are calling out their plays on offense. They are too predictable on that side of the ball, and their defense has taken a major step back this year.

The Lions were one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL last season, and it hasn’t been any better in 2015. They are only averaging 18.7 points and 305.0 yards per game. They cannot run the football, which makes their offense very predictable. They are only averaging 45 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry. This Legion of Boom Seattle defense thrives against the pass, making this an excellent matchup for the Seahawks.

The loss of Ndamukong Suh in the middle of the Lions’ defense has been huge. But they’ve also been without middle linebacker DeAndre Levy, who is questionable to return this week with a hip injury. The Lions are giving up 27.7 points and 395.7 yards per game this season against opponents who are only averaging 22.2 points and 329 yards per game. They are also giving up 6.2 yards per play against opponents who average 5.4 yards per play.

The Seahawks simply do not lose at home. They are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games overall. Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine Monday Night games. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game.  Bet the Seahawks Monday.

15* Vikings/Broncos Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota +7

The Denver Broncos are extremely fortunate to be 3-0 right now. They trailed the Ravens in the fourth quarter before getting a defensive touchdown to win 19-13. They also trailed late against the Chiefs before tying the game with only a few seconds remaining, and then got a defensive touchdown on a fumble by Jamaal Charles just before the end of regulation to win 31-24. They were also only up 14-12 on the Lions in the final period before adding a touchdown and a field goal over the final eight minutes to win 24-12.  The three teams they've beaten are a combined 3-8 as well.

This Denver team has a different feel to it than the previous versions under Peyton Manning. The Broncos are going to be forced to win a lot more close, defensive battles. That certainly favors taking underdogs of a touchdown or more in their games. The Broncos just don’t have a very good offense this season as they are averaging just 290.7 yards per game and 4.5 per play against teams that give up 384 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.

I believe the Vikings' 3-20 loss at the 49ers was an aberration more than anything. They came into that game over-hyped, while the 49ers came in with something to prove after getting bashed all offseason. The Vikings responded well the last two weeks, beating Detroit and San Diego a combined 57-30 at home.

The Vikings only ran the ball 17 times against the 49ers in Week 1 with Adrian Peterson only receiving 10 carries. But they have gotten back to who they really are the last two weeks, which is a ground and pound team. They rushed 42 times for 199 yards against the Lions, and 31 times for 163 yards against the Chargers. Peterson had 192 total yards from scrimmage against the Lions and rushed 20 times for 126 yards and two scores against San Diego.

Minnesota’s offense has taken off with the new formula to run the football, and its defense is one of the top units in the league. The Vikings went from allowing 30 points per game in 2013 to just 21.4 points per game last year in Mike Zimmer’s first season on the job. Now they are giving up just 16.7 points per game through the first three weeks of the season. I believe this is a much more evenly-matched game than this spread would indicate.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) – after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in their last game over the past three seasons. Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Roll with the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7.5

The Arizona Cardinals could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  Yes, they are blowing teams out, but their three opponents in the Bears, 49ers and Saints are a combined 1-8 on the season.  They have simply taken advantage of a soft schedule.  They have now created expectations for themselves from the betting public and oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to, and that's going to show this week after their 3-0 ATS start.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Rams would have a hard time being more undervalued than they are right now.  After beating the Seahawks 34-31, they were overvalued as 3-point favorites at Washington in Week 2.  They suffered a letdown in that game and lost 10-24.  They also lost at home 6-12 last week to the Pittsburgh Steelers, failing to cover the spread for a second consecutive week.

I really like this Rams defense this season.  It held the Seahawks to 343 total yards and the Steelers to just 259 total yards.  It is giving up just 325.0 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 359 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  It is also giving up only 6.2 passing yards per attempt while leading the NFL in most sacks per pass attempt.  That's key because the Cardinals love to throw the football.

The Rams went into Arizona last year and were ready to pull off the upset.  They led 14-10 in the 4th quarter and were almost surely going to cover as 7-point underdogs.  But that's when a bunch of fluky things happened.  They gave up a touchdown with 7:40 to go and trailed 17-14, and then proceeded to give up two defensive touchdowns with an interception return and a fumble return over the final five minutes.  The Cardinals scored three times in a matter of less than four minutes, which simply does not happen.  It's revenge time for the Rams after losing three straight in this series.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 210-134 (61%) ATS since 1983.  Jeff Fisher is 15-4 ATS in road games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games in all games he has coached.  Take the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

The Carolina Panthers are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL this season.  They are 3-0 with their three wins coming against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, who are a combined 2-7 on the season.  They didn't cover against New Orleans last week as they were 10-point favorites in that game at home, and now they are overvalued again as 3.5-point road favorites over the Bucs.

It was going to take some time for the Bucs to gel as a team with a rookie quarterback in Jameis Winston.  But after three games, the chemistry should now be much better with Winston and company going forward.  This Carolina defense that is perceived to be great gave up 380 total yards to the Saints last week, including 31 of 38 passing for 280 yards to backup QB Luke McCown.  I look for Winston to have his best game yet Sunday.

The Panthers are dealing with all kinds of injuries right now, especially on defense.  Starting DE Charles Johnson is out with a hamstring injury, NFL Defensive MVP Luke Keuchly is doubtful with a concussion, starting CB Josh Norman is questionable, and key DE Frank Alexander is out with an Achilles injury.  Offensively, the Panthers are without their best receiver in Jerricho Cotchery, and backup RB Mike Tolbert is questionable with a groin injury.

Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) - off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucs are going to be out for revenge after losing each of their last four meetings with the Panthers, including both meetings by a combined 8 points last year.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* Eagles/Redskins NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington +3

The Philadelphia Eagles are not the same team they had been the previous two seasons under Chip Kelly. It’s already clear to me that the moves he made this offseason really have backfired. The numbers show that the Eagles are one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, while the Redskins are one of the better teams despite sharing identical 1-2 records.

Philadelphia did play a decent game against Atlanta in the opener and lost 24-26. But the last two weeks have been awful. The Eagles were outgained by 133 yards by the Cowboys in their 10-20 home loss, and that was even with Tony Romo getting hurt in the second half and no Dez Bryant. Then, they were outgained by 92 yards against the Jets last week and only won because they got an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles, and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions.

The Eagles only managed 226 yards of total offense against the Cowboys and 231 against the Jets. This isn’t the same explosive offense we’ve become accustomed to seeing. They are averaging 285.3 yards per game and 4.5 per play, while allowing 360.3 yards per game and 5.1 per play. As you can see, they are getting outgained by 75 yards per game. They are also dealing with key injuries right now to DeMarco Murray and a pair of starting linebackers in Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks.

The Redskins are much better than they are getting credit for this season. They outgained Miami by 93 yards in a 10-17 home loss, and they only lost that game because they gave up a punt return touchdown. They then thoroughly dominated the Rams at home in Week 2 by outgaining them by 160 yards in a 24-10 win. You could argue that they outplayed the Giants last week as they outgained them by 30 yards but lost 21-32 on the road.

The Redskins are putting up 371.7 yards per game and allowing just 277.3 yards per game, outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per contest. That’s the sign of a good team and one that is better than the 1-2 record would indicate. But they are -5 in turnover differential to this point, so if they can just limit the turnovers they can beat anyone.

The home team has won three straight and five of the last seven meetings in this series. The Redskins are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Eagles with all three losses coming by 8 points or less, so they have played them very tough.  The Redskins are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 vs. poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game. The Eagles are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Week 4 games. Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. NFC foes.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

25* AFC Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs +4

Off back-to-back losses and off to a 1-2 start, the Chiefs are going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday. The Bengals can afford a loss at this point after a 3-0 start to the season. I just look at this as a motivational mismatch, but I’m not so sure that the Chiefs aren’t actually the better team, too.

Kansas City has lost the last two weeks to Denver and Green Bay, which are two of the best teams in the NFL this season. Those two teams are a combined 6-0. The Chiefs should have beaten the Broncos, but they committed five turnovers and allowed two late touchdowns in a span of seconds. They didn’t play well in Green Bay, but who does?

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 3-0 against teams that are a combined 3-6 this season. They beat the Raiders, who have only beaten the Browns and Ravens. They beat the Chargers, who have only beaten the Lions. They also beat the Ravens, who are 1-3 on the year. I’m not ready to call the Bengals an elite team just yet. I think they have taken advantage of a soft schedule more than anything.

While I’m certain the Chiefs still have one of the best defenses in the league despite the numbers, I think the Bengals aren’t as good defensively as the numbers would indicate. Cincinnati is giving up 69.7% completions to opposing quarterbacks this year. That’s important because Andy Reid is 9-2 ATS against awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse as the coach of Kansas City.

Aaron Rodgers picked apart a decimated Kansas City secondary last week.  That won't happen this week.  That's because the best cornerback on the Chiefs roster returns from a 3-game suspension that has sidelined him up to this point.  Sean Smith has served his suspension, and now he'll team up with Marcus Peters to form one of the best CB duos in the league for the remainder of the season.

The Chiefs are 19-8 ATS in road games off a road loss since 1992. Kansas City is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS int heir last 10 road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. The Bengals are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Week 4 games.  Andy Reid is 46-26 ATS as a road underdog in his coaching career.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

20* Clemson/Notre Dame Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -1.5

I believe this is where all the injuries finally catch up to Notre Dame. They are down six potential NFL Draft picks already, and while they obviously have good depth, it’s going to bite them sooner rather than later. They were able to escape with a 34-27 road win at Virginia and a 30-22 home win over Notre Dame, but now they face the best team them have played all season.

Clemson is the real deal this year with one of the best offenses in the country and a defense that is better than it was expected to be with all of the losses during the offseason. Deshaun Watson is one of the most electric quarterbacks in the country as this Clemson offense thrived last year when he was healthy, and it struggled when he wasn’t able to play.

Watson is completing 74.4 percent of his passes for 6451 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 93 yards. He led them to an average of 45.0 points per game in wins over Wofford and Appalachian State before managing just 20 points in a 20-17 win at Louisville.

But that 3-point win at Louisville was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tigers outgained the Cardinals by 129 total yards.  The Cardinals got a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarterback to make it interesting.  I believe this 3-point win over Louisville has the betting public scared off, which provides us with some extra value here.

The Clemson defense has been absolutely sensational again this season. It is only giving up 12.3 points and 261.0 yards per game just one year after leading the country in total defense. That’s really impressive when you consider the three opponents it has played average 29.8 points and 400 yards per game. So the Tigers have held their opponents to 17.5 points and 139 yards per game below their season averages.

This is a great spot for Clemson. It will have been 16 days since the Tigers last played on September 17 against Louisville. They have been able to watch both the Georgia Tech and UMass games that Notre Dame has played to get prepared for them. They will be well-rested and chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this game.

Clemson is a very tough place to play. The Tigers are 28-2 at home over the past five seasons as they have one of the best home-field advantages in all of college football. Their two losses came to Florida State in 2013 and South Carolina in 2012. Florida State won the national championship in 2013 and South Carolina finished with 11 wins in 2012.

Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. The Fighting Irish are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Fighting Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +14

This line is a classic overreaction based on what happened last week.  Arizona State was blown out at home by USC 14-42, while UCLA crushed Arizona on the road 56-30.  Both games were expected to be close according to the odds in Las Vegas, but both turned into blowouts.  But if they had set a line for ASU @ UCLA prior to last week, it would have been UCLA by 7 points or less.  I believe we're getting at least a full TD of value here now this week.

UCLA benefited from Arizona losing starting QB Anu Solomon early in that game last week.  The Bruins only outgained the Wildcats by 29 yards even with the loss of Solomon.  But that game was decided by three Arizona turnovers and a +3 turnover differential for the Bruins.  I don't think that win was as impressive as it appears at all, especially since I already had Arizona tabbed as one of the most overrated teams in the country.

Meanwhile, Arizona State lost to the best team in the Pac-12 in USC last week, and I was on the Trojans in that game.  But it wasn't the 42-14 blowout it would appear.  USC only outgained Arizona State 455-454, or by a single yard.  That game was put out of reach once ASU fumbled while it was going into the end zone, and it was returned 94 yards for a touchdown.  Had the Sun Devils scored on that play, they could have made a run.

After being +29 in turnover differential the past two seasons combined, the Sun Devils are -3 so far this season.  They keep shooting themselves in the foot.  They have fumbled a whopping 13 times already and lost 7 of those fumbles.  To compare, they only fumbled 15 times last year and lost 4 of them.  They have simply been unlucky in the early going, but I still believe the Sun Devils are one of the better teams in the Pac-12.

"Obviously our guys know that our backs are against the wall," Graham said Monday. "And everything, every issue we have is self-inflicted and we've just got to get those things corrected and take it upon ourselves to go to work and get it done."

The Sun Devils have responded well recently following a difficult loss.  In 2013, Arizona State suffered a tough loss to Stanford and scored 62 points in a rout over USC the next week. The Sun Devils followed a blowout loss to UCLA last season by beating USC on a Hail Mary the following week.

Arizona State is going to be out for revenge from its 62-27 loss to UCLA last year as well.  The Sun Devils actually outgained the Bruins 626-580 in that game as it was obviously a lot closer than the final score showed.  But turnovers did them in again as they were -4 in turnover differential.  Mike Bercovici went 42 of 68 for 488 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss.

UCLA only beat a bad Virginia team at home by 18 and only beat BYU 24-23 in its two home games this season.  That's the same BYU team that lost 31-0 at Michigan last week, and the same Virginia team that lost 14-56 at home to Boise State last week.  Arizona State is by far the best team that the Bruins will have faced.

The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 20 points or less in their previous game.  The Bruins are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 October games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Arizona State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +45

I love fading LSU when it is laying massive points to non-conference opponents.  It's an easy choice because LSU doesn't play the brand of football that allows it to run up the scoreboard.  The Tigers play a conservative, run-heavy, ball-control approach that eats up clock and allows for big underdogs to cover these numbers with ease.

The biggest thing here is that LSU is not going to be concerned with running up the scoreboard.  It will be looking ahead to its next SEC game on the road against South Carolina.  I was not impressed with LSU's 34-24 win at Syracuse last week as 23-point favorites.  That was another situation where this team was simply laying too many points, but even though they didn't cover, oddsmakers aren't even factoring that into the line this week because they know the betting public will only back LSU.

Eastern Michigan is coming off two straight home losses and non-covers to Ball State (17-28) and Army (36-58).  Those two losses certainly look awful in the minds of the betting public, which has created some extra value here with this line.  I was impressed with this team the first two weeks as they flashed their potential and showed that they are certainly improved this year.

They lost to Old Dominion 34-38 as 6-point home underdogs in the opener due to having a -3 turnover differential.  They outgained the Monarchs by 31 yards in that loss.  Then they went on the road and upset Wyoming 48-29 as 13-point dogs and outgained the Cowboys by 44 yards in the win.  While these last two losses to Army and Ball State are concerning, it doesn't matter a whole lot when you're catching 45 points against a team that likely won't score 45 points themselves.

Eastern Michigan has shown me enough on offense to know that it can score a few times on this LSU defense.  It is averaging 33.7 points and 438.2 yards per game this season and 6.5 yards per play.  The improvement this team has made is almost exclusively due to this offense.  Brogan Robach is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 877 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions in just over 12 quarters of action this year.

Plays on road underdogs (E MICHIGAN) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (E MICHIGAN) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 84-42 (66.7%) ATS since 1992.

LSU is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -6.5

I believe the Ole Miss Rebels are the best team in college football this season. They showed that with their 43-37 road win at Alabama two weeks ago which followed up home wins over Tennessee-Martin and Fresno State by a combined 149-24 margin. They returned 16 starters this season in what is Hugh Freeze’s most talented team yet with the tremendous job he has done in recruiting.

I know a letdown spot when I see one, and that’s why I was on Vanderbilt +27 at Ole Miss last week. The Rebels weren’t going to be focused following their upset win over Alabama, and that proved to be the case. They made plenty of mental mistakes in that game and only wound up beating Vanderbilt 27-16. But they still outgained the Commodores by 150 total yards in the win.  Now Florida will have Ole Miss' full attention this week.

The Gators are 4-0 right now when they easily could be 1-3. They have won three straight games over ECU (31-24) at home, Kentucky (14-9) on the road and Tennessee (28-27) at home all by a touchdown or less. If they struggled to put those three teams away, they stand no chance of keeping this game close against the best team in college football.  They had a miracle win over Tennessee last week when they trailed by 13 with just over four minutes to play.  That win is keeping this line lower than it should be.

Ole Miss is loaded with firepower on offense this season as it’s averaging 54.7 points and 543.5 yards per game. Its defense is one of the best in the country once again just one year after it only allowed 16.0 points per game last year. The Rebels are yielding 19.2 points and 357.7 yards per game despite playing a pretty tough schedule up to this point.

Florida doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up. It was held to just 14 points with only four minutes to go against Tennessee last week. It was held to 14 points for the entire game against Kentucky the previous week. The Gators do have a solid defense, but they did allow 24 points to East Carolina and 27 to Tennessee. Ole Miss’ offense is a completely different animal.

Ole Miss is 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. Freeze is 28-15 ATS in all games as the coach of Ole Miss. The Gators are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Alabama/Georgia CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama +1.5

I’m not ready to count out the Crimson Tide just yet. If they lose this game, they’ll have no shot at winning a national title this year. They can’t afford two losses because they probably won’t be winning the SEC West if that’s the case. I expect Nick Saban to rally the troops this week and let them know what’s at stake.

After all, this is the first time that Alabama has been an underdog in 73 games. Saban can use that as extra motivation as well. The last time they were an underdog came in the 2009 SEC Championship Game against Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators. The Crimson Tide won that game and went on to beat Texas for the National Championship.

While Georgia is probably the best team in the SEC East, it would only be somewhere around the 4th-best team in the SEC West, and that might be a little generous. I believe Ole Miss is the best team in the SEC West and I said that coming into the season as well. I’m glad they proved me right with their upset win over Alabama, but that loss by the Crimson Tide only has them undervalued here.

I also like the fact that Alabama is more battle-tested coming into this one. Having already played Wisconsin and Ole Miss, it will be ready for this showdown with Georgia. The Bulldogs have only played LA-Monroe, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern. Well, it’s looking more and more like South Carolina and Vanderbilt are the two worst teams in the SEC. Plus, Georgia only outgained Vanderbilt by 22 total yards in its 31-14 victory. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Commodores racked up 400 yards on this Georgia defense.

I'm on Alabama this week for many of the same reasons I was on the Crimson Tide against Wisconsin in the opener. It's a perfect matchup for them.  The only teams Alabama struggles against are ones with mobile quarterbacks, and Georgia's Greyson Lambert is immobile.  Georgia relies heavily on its running game with Nick Chubb and company, and that plays right into Alabama's hands.

Indeed, Alabama is only giving up 57 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  So, they are holding their opponents to 106 yards and 2.3 per carry less than their season averages.  They've already faced two solid rushing offenses in Wisconsin and Ole Miss.  They held the Badgers to 40 yards on 21 carries and the Rebels to 92 yards on 32 carries.  That's some pretty impressive stuff right there.

Alabama is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 road games following an ATS loss that resulted in a straight up win. The Crimson Tide are 26-12 ATS in their last 28 road games versus good rushing defenses that give up 3.25 or fewer yards per carry. Georgia is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GEORGIA) – off a home win, after the first month of the season are 53-16 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Alabama going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall really has the Crimson Tide undervalued coming into this game.  I still believe this is the second-best team in the SEC, and that will be proven this weekend.  Roll with the Crimson Tide Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +7

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They had one of the best offseason hires in the nation by nabbing former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who also stepped into a great situation since the Golden Hurricane returned 16 starters.  The early results have been very promising.

The Golden Hurricane beat Florida Atlantic 47-44 in overtime at home in their opener.  They then went on the road and throttled New Mexico 40-21 as 6.5-point underdogs.  Then they gave Oklahoma more than it wanted in a 38-52 road loss at 33.5-point underdogs.  I watched most of that Oklahoma game and came away very impressed with this offense.

It's hard not to be considering Tulsa gained a whopping 603 total yards against a good Oklahoma defense.  Tulsa is averaging 41.7 points and 607.0 yards per game this season already, so Montgomery has clearly taken his offensive genius from Baylor and used it here at Tulsa to perfection.

Dane Evans is having a big senior season already, completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,172 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Golden Hurricane have the best duo of WR's in the AAC in Keyarris Garrett (26, 454, 1 TD) and Keevan Lucas (19, 342, 5 TD).

Houston is also an improved team under former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman.  But Herman didn't step into nearly as good of a situation as the Cougars returned only 11 starters this year.  They are 3-0, but they have faced a very easy schedule with Tennessee Tech, Louisville and Texas State.  They did upset Louisville 34-31 on the road, but that's a Louisville team that is 1-3 right now, so that win is looking worse and worse by the week.

Tulsa has a huge scheduling advantage in this one.  The Golden Hurricane are coming off their first bye of the season, having a full 14 days in between games.  They needed that extra recovery time after the shootout against Oklahoma two weeks ago.  They also should be coming into this game with a ton of confidence after taking one of the best teams in the country in the Sooners right down to the wire.  Meanwhile, Houston played Texas State last week and won't be as prepared or fresh.

Tulsa only lost 28-38 at Houston last season as 19.5-point underdogs.  The Golden Hurricane actually held a 25-21 first down edge in that game, but they only lost due to being -3 in turnover differential.  They gave the ball away three times while the Cougars didn't commit one turnover.  I believe it's revenge time now as this is the best Tulsa team we have seen in quite some time, and they're catching a touchdown at home when they shouldn't be.

Houston is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Tulsa is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  The Golden Hurricane are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Hurricane are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Tulsa is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following a bye week.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +22

I'll continue fading the Michigan State Spartans for the third straight time.  I did so successfully with Air Force +24.5 two weeks ago in a 35-21 Spartans home victory.  I also had Central Michigan +25 last week in a 30-10 Michigan State home win.  I wish I would have gone against the Spartans every week though since they're 0-4 against the spread.

Simply put, Michigan State is the single-most overrated team in the country.  It is ranked No. 2 in the country right now, and that fact alone has the Spartans overvalued.  They are simply laying too many points week in and week out due to their national ranking.  But the numbers show that this team really isn't very good, and may end up being outside of the Top 10 when it's all said and done.

Indeed, the Spartans have been outgained in three of the four games they've played in.  They only outgained Western Michigan by 69 yards in the opener, and then were outgained by 43 yards by Oregon, by 104 yards by Air Force, and by 16 yards by Central Michigan.  That 31-28 win over Oregon is looking worse and worse by the week.

The Spartans are only averaging 372.2 yards per game on offense, and their defense has taken a huge step back this season, allowing 395.7 yards per game thus far.  They are getting outgained by an average of 23.5 yards per game, which is not the sign of a team that should be ranked No. 2 in the country.

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in college football this season.  But that doesn't show up in the Boilermakers' record as they are just 1-3, but that also has them undervalued here.  This team could easily be 3-1 right now instead.

They led Marshall for most of the game before throwing a late pick-6 when they were driving to try and tie it, losing 31-41.  They missed a field goal late that could have beaten Bowling Green last week, but instead gave up a touchdown with only a few seconds remaining to lose 28-35.  That's a very good Bowling Green team, too.

Redshirt freshman David Blough was solid in his first career start against Bowling Green, going 29 of 39 for 340 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He also had a 1-yard TD run.  I believe he is the best starter on the team, and I like the focus of this team even after the tough start.

"We have a good locker room with a ton of leaders," sophomore linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley said. "We know we are not mentally out of it. We are just having execution problems. We have correctable issues that we can control and change."

Purdue has played Michigan State extremely tough through the years, especially here recently.  They have been at least 20.5-point underdogs in each of the last three meetings, and all three were decided by 14 points or less.  They only lost 31-45 as 21-point home dogs to MSU last year, 0-14 as 28-point road dogs in 2013, and 31-35 as 20.5-point road dogs in 2010.

In fact, Purdue hasn't lost to Michigan State by more than 20 points in any of the last 14 meetings.  That's a perfect 14-0 system working in the Boilermakers' favor dating back to 1997 pertaining to this three-touchdown spread.  With this being Darrell Hazell's best team yet, I look for this streak to continue in 2015.  Bet Purdue Saturday

20* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on UConn +17.5

The BYU Cougars are now overvalued after their impressive start that saw them upset Nebraska and Boise State and nearly beat UCLA on the road. They went 3-0 against the spread through those first four games and then were only catching a touchdown at Michigan last week. They would lose to the Wolverines 31-0 in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate.

Michigan outgained BYU by a whopping 343 total yards. The Wolverines managed 448 total yards including 254 rushing. They held the Cougars to just 105 yards of total offense as well. Now after playing the toughest schedule in the entire country through the first four weeks of the season, the Cougars are out of gas. They have to play on a short week here, which makes matters worse. I see no way they have enough left in the tank to put away UConn by more than 17.5 points.

Connecticut is a vastly improved team this season under second-year head coach Bob Diaco. It beat one of the best FCS teams in the country in Villanova 20-15 at home despite being 7-point underdogs, which just shows what the oddsmakers thought of the Wildcats. It then beat Army 22-17 at home in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Huskies outgained the Black Knights by 150 total yards.

Perhaps the effort that shows UConn is improved the most is the 6-9 loss at Missouri as 21-point underdogs. The Huskies were only outgained by 37 yards by the Tigers in that game. They were also only outgained by 18 yards against Navy in an 18-28 home loss last week. That’s a Navy team that beat East Carolina 45-21. Well, ECU has beaten Virginia Tech and nearly beat Florida on the road. So clearly that loss to Navy isn’t too bad.

I think this is another week that will show the improvement that UConn has made this season. The Huskies were playing their first game under Diaco when they hosted BYU last season in the 2014 opener. They lost that game 35-10 and were outgained by 158 yards. So, they’re going to want revenge in this game, and now they have the type of team that can hang with BYU a year later.

The reason the Huskies have a chance to keep this game close is because of their defense. They are only giving up 17.2 points and 295.2 yards per game. Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game as it is with the total set at just 44 points. These low-scoring games almost always favor taking the underdog catching big points. BYU would have to win roughly a 31-13 game for the score to match the spread and total. I don’t see BYU scoring more than 31, and I foresee UConn getting past 13.

BYU is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The Cougars are 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a 2-game road trip.  Bet Connecticut Friday.

15* Ravens/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3

It’s simply too tough to replace a quarterback the caliber of Ben Roethlisberger. This was the second-best offense in the league last season thanks to Roethlisberger tying Drew Brees for the NFL lead in passing yards. Now he’s expected to miss 4-6 weeks, and the Steelers will turn to Michael Vick for now. Vick was signed just prior to the season and has not had any success in Philadelphia or New York in recent years.

Simply put, this is a must-win situation for the Ravens. The chips are already stacked against them with their 0-3 start, but 0-4 would signal the end of the season. Only three teams have ever made the playoffs after starting 0-3, and only one has made the postseason after an 0-4 start. The Ravens are still talented enough to make a run at it and could be the 4th team to accomplish the feat.

After all, the Ravens could just as easily be 3-0 right now. They have blown three straight leads in the 4th quarter. They led Denver 13-9 before a pick-6 by Joe Flacco that ended up resulting in a 19-13 win by the Broncos. They led the Raiders 33-30 with 2:10 left before giving up a game-winning touchdown with 26 seconds to play. They held a 24-21 lead over the Bengals with 3:56 to go and allowed Cincinnati to march down the field and take a 28-24 lead for good with 2:10 to play.

Baltimore’s three losses this season have come against teams that are a combined 8-1. Pittsburgh’s two wins this year have come against teams that are a combined 2-4. The San Francisco 49ers are obviously terrible, and the St. Louis Rams aren’t a whole lot better. The Steelers only managed 259 total yards against the Rams last week and were really stuck in neutral once Roethlisberger left the game.

Fortunately, the Steelers were able to hold the Rams defensively in that 12-6 victory. But make no mistake about it, this isn’t a very good Steelers defense this season. The Ravens have really gotten their offense on track the last two weeks and will have their way with this defense. They put up 33 points and 493 total yards on the Raiders, and then 24 points and 398 yards against the Bengals. Joe Flacco has thrown for a combined 746 yards the past two weeks. Pittsburgh simply isn’t going to have the firepower to keep up with the Ravens now.

Joe Flacco has thrown for 746 yards and fourth touchdowns in his last two meetings with the Steelers.  Dating back further, Flacco has thrown 13 touchdowns and two interceptions while winning six of the last nine games the Steelers.  The Ravens have won three of the last four meetings in this series, including a 30-17 road win in the playoffs last year.

Baltimore is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following an upset loss as a home favorite. It is coming back to win by an average of 6.2 points per game in this spot. The Ravens are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Ravens Thursday.

20* Miami/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6.5

It’s clear to me that there is value with the home underdog Bearcats in this one. That’s just based off of these team’s records thus far and how they have done against the spread. Miami is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS through its first three games, which has the betting public backing the Hurricanes here. Cincinnati is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS thus far, and the betting public certainly doesn’t want much to do with them right now.

But Cincinnati is better than its record would indicate and arguably should be 4-0. The Bearcats have put up tremendous statistical numbers to this point. They outgained Alabama A&M by 390 yards in a 52-10 win, they outgained Temple by 261 yards in a 26-34 loss, outgained Miami (Ohio) by 97 yards in a 37-33 win, and outgained Memphis by 182 yards in a 46-53 loss.

The Bearcats are averaging a ridiculous 622.5 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season on offense. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as advertised, allowing 390.0 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by an average of 232.5 yards per game this year. The problem for the Bearcats has been turnovers as they are -10 in turnover differential already. These poor turnovers teams are almost always undervalued.

Miami has played a pretty favorable schedule during its 3-0 start. It played Bethune-Cookman and Florida Atlantic in its first two games and actually struggled to put away FAU until late. Then it drew Nebraska at home, and with two losses already, the Huskers clearly aren’t as strong of a team as they normally are this year. Plus, Miami is +8 in turnover differential already, and these favorable turnover teams are almost always overvalued.

Cincinnati is going to want revenge from its 34-55 loss at Miami last year. It was -2 in turnovers in that game and let it get away from them. This is also a tough spot for Miami. It is coming off that huge win over Nebraska, and it has its biggest game of the season on deck against Florida State. This is a classing sandwich game for the Hurricanes as they may not bring their best focus given the situation.

Hayden Moore threw for a school-record 557 yards against Memphis last week while coming off the bench to replace an injured Gunner Kiel.  Moore will get the start this week.  "I don't think I've ever seen a performance like that. ... He broke our record here and we've had some quarterbacks that could really throw the football," Cincinnati coach Tommy Tuberville said. "And he did it in three quarters."

Nippert Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Bearcats one of the best home-field advantages in the land.  Cincinnati has won 27 consecutive non-conference games at Nippert Stadium.  The last time they lost one of these came all the way back in 2002.  And they're an underdog?  Give me a break.

Miami is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Cincinnati is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games vs. good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) – in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Packers MNF Side & Total Parlay on Kansas City +7/UNDER 49

Reasons for the Chiefs:

Yes, it’s Monday Night Football so the Packers are going to be up for this game, but this is actually a bit of a letdown spot for them. They are coming off an emotional win over the Seahawks as they got their revenge from the NFC Championship Game loss last year. They certainly won’t be able to match the intensity they played with last week.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, will be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. They blew their game against the Broncos last Thursday, and that will have them pissed off coming into this one. It also means that they have three extra days of rest than the Packers, which will be an advantage.

This is still a very good Chiefs football team that will have a great shot to win the AFC West this season. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL as they held the Broncos to just 299 total yards last week. Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson are both back from injury this season, making an already stout Chiefs defense even better. This is a stop unit that allowed just 17.6 points per game last year as it is.

Kansas City’s offense is clearly improved this season with the addition of Jeremy Maclin. The Chiefs finally have a true No. 1 receiver, which they haven’t had in years. The early results are promising as the Chiefs are averaging 25.5 points per game. Look for Jamaal Charles to play an inspired game after blowing the game against the Broncos last week with a fumble in the closing seconds that was returned for a touchdown. It was one of five turnovers for the Chiefs, who simply gave that game away.

Eddie Lacy suffered an ankle injury against the Seahawks and is questionable to play this week. Devante Adams is also dealing with an ankle injury, and as you know, Jordy Nelson is likely out for the season with a torn ACL. Tackle Bryan Bulaga will miss 6-8 weeks with a knee injury as well. This isn’t the same explosive Green Bay offense that we saw last year due to all these injuries. But it is getting treated like it from oddsmakers as 7-point favorites here.

The Chiefs are 6-1 straight up in their last seven meetings with the Packers. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games. Andy Reid is 46-25 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

The Chiefs know that their best chance to win this game is to control the ball for the majority of the game and limit the turnovers.  I look for a very conservative game plan from them that revolves and Charles and not making mistakes.  I look for them to execute this game plan well and limit the time of possession.

As mentioned with the reasons for the Chiefs, they have a great defense, and the Packers aren't the same offense they were last year with all of the injuries.  Eddie Lacy and Devante Adams are banged up, while Jordy Nelson and Bryan Bulaga are out.  The Packers had unreal health on offense last season, but now the luck has not been on their side in the early going.

There is value with the UNDER because these teams have combined to go 3-1 to the over through their first four games.  The Chiefs went over in both of their games in a 27-20 win over Houston and a 24-31 loss to Denver.  The Packers went over in a 31-23 win over the Bears and under in a 27-17 win over the Seahawks.  But they only managed 322 total yards against the Bears and should not have scored 31 points.

But the Chiefs aren't the type of team that is going to play in shootouts like that every week.  Those two final scores were more aberrations than anything, especially with the five turnovers the Chiefs committed against the Broncos that led to easy scoring opportunities.  There were two defensive touchdowns in that game, which turned a 41-point game into a 55-point game.  The Packers and Chiefs both won't be giving away non-offensive touchdowns like that this week.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, after 1 or more consecutive losses are 45-19 (70.3%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Chiefs last 36 games following a ATS loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Chiefs/Packers MNF Side & Total Parlay on Kansas City +7/UNDER 49

Reasons for the Chiefs:

Yes, it’s Monday Night Football so the Packers are going to be up for this game, but this is actually a bit of a letdown spot for them. They are coming off an emotional win over the Seahawks as they got their revenge from the NFC Championship Game loss last year. They certainly won’t be able to match the intensity they played with last week.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, will be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. They blew their game against the Broncos last Thursday, and that will have them pissed off coming into this one. It also means that they have three extra days of rest than the Packers, which will be an advantage.

This is still a very good Chiefs football team that will have a great shot to win the AFC West this season. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL as they held the Broncos to just 299 total yards last week. Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson are both back from injury this season, making an already stout Chiefs defense even better. This is a stop unit that allowed just 17.6 points per game last year as it is.

Kansas City’s offense is clearly improved this season with the addition of Jeremy Maclin. The Chiefs finally have a true No. 1 receiver, which they haven’t had in years. The early results are promising as the Chiefs are averaging 25.5 points per game. Look for Jamaal Charles to play an inspired game after blowing the game against the Broncos last week with a fumble in the closing seconds that was returned for a touchdown. It was one of five turnovers for the Chiefs, who simply gave that game away.

Eddie Lacy suffered an ankle injury against the Seahawks and is questionable to play this week. Devante Adams is also dealing with an ankle injury, and as you know, Jordy Nelson is likely out for the season with a torn ACL. Tackle Bryan Bulaga will miss 6-8 weeks with a knee injury as well. This isn’t the same explosive Green Bay offense that we saw last year due to all these injuries. But it is getting treated like it from oddsmakers as 7-point favorites here.

The Chiefs are 6-1 straight up in their last seven meetings with the Packers. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games. Andy Reid is 46-25 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

The Chiefs know that their best chance to win this game is to control the ball for the majority of the game and limit the turnovers.  I look for a very conservative game plan from them that revolves and Charles and not making mistakes.  I look for them to execute this game plan well and limit the time of possession.

As mentioned with the reasons for the Chiefs, they have a great defense, and the Packers aren't the same offense they were last year with all of the injuries.  Eddie Lacy and Devante Adams are banged up, while Jordy Nelson and Bryan Bulaga are out.  The Packers had unreal health on offense last season, but now the luck has not been on their side in the early going.

There is value with the UNDER because these teams have combined to go 3-1 to the over through their first four games.  The Chiefs went over in both of their games in a 27-20 win over Houston and a 24-31 loss to Denver.  The Packers went over in a 31-23 win over the Bears and under in a 27-17 win over the Seahawks.  But they only managed 322 total yards against the Bears and should not have scored 31 points.

But the Chiefs aren't the type of team that is going to play in shootouts like that every week.  Those two final scores were more aberrations than anything, especially with the five turnovers the Chiefs committed against the Broncos that led to easy scoring opportunities.  There were two defensive touchdowns in that game, which turned a 41-point game into a 55-point game.  The Packers and Chiefs both won't be giving away non-offensive touchdowns like that this week.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, after 1 or more consecutive losses are 45-19 (70.3%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Chiefs last 36 games following a ATS loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Bengals/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -2.5

The Baltimore Ravens are already in must-win mode in Week 3. They know that teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs just 11 percent of the time. They certainly won’t be going to the postseason if they start 0-3. I look for them to come out with an inspired effort Sunday and to get the win over the Bengals, who can now afford a loss after opening 2-0. They won’t be as motivated as a result.

Baltimore easily could be 2-0 right now. Joe Flacco threw a late pick-6 in the second half that ultimately cost his team the game in a 13-19 loss at Denver. Flacco then engineered what appeared to be the game-winning drive with a field goal with 2:10 remaining against the Raiders, only for the defense to give up the go-ahead touchdown with 26 seconds left to play. It’s certainly a game of inches, and the Ravens have been on the wrong side of these breaks in the early going.

But now the Ravens get to play at home for the first time this season. They are 47-11 in all home games dating back to the start of the 2008 season, which was the first year under John Harbaugh. It’s safe to say that the Ravens have one of the best home-field advantages in the league, but they aren’t known for it. Getting them as less than a field goal favorite at home given the situation is a gift from the oddsmakers.

Baltimore will also be motivated after having lost three straight to the Bengals in this series. It’s payback time Sunday.   Joe Flacco is coming off a big game against the Raiders in which he threw for 384 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in September, going 13-1 in his career as a starter at home in this month.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent years. In fact, the home team is 9-2 straight up the last 11 meetings between these teams. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Ravens are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

15* Falcons/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta -1

This one is about as obvious as it gets folks.  The Dallas Cowboys are simply too banged up right now to win this game.  The Atlanta Falcons are also better than they are getting credit for this season and have already made drastic improvements under first-year head coach Dan Quinn.

Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, DE Randy Gregory, LB Rolando McClain, DE Greg Hardy, DT Terrell McClain and CB Orlando Scandrick are all key players who are missing for Dallas right now.  Jason Witten is also banged up with an ankle injury.  The Cowboys do have a solid defense that can keep them competitive, but I just don't trust in Brandon Weeden to get this offense going.

In their first game without Dez Bryant, the Cowboys were very fortunate to come away with a 20-10 win against the Eagles.  They had a defensive touchdown and capitalized on three Eagles' turnovers.  But their offense only scored 13 points in that game.  Weeden is 5-16 as a starter in the NFL, including eight straight defeats.  He started in place of Romo for one game last year, and the Cowboys lost badly at home to Arizona by a final of 17-28.  His job is a lot harder now without Bryant.

The Falcons beat the Eagles 26-24 at home and then went on the road and topped the Giants 24-20.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season as they are averaging 25.0 points per game and 398.5 yards per game.  Their defense will continue to improve under Quinn, who was the defensive coordinator in Seattle before coming here.  The Falcons are already starting to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks with the additions they made this offseason in Vic Beasley among others.

Jason Garrett is 3-11 ATS in home games off a division game as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 14-24 ATS in all home games as the coach of the Cowboys.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.  Atlanta should be favored by more than a single point given the situation.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +8

This line is inflated now that it has been announced that Drew Brees will sit out this game against the Carolina Panthers.  The value is clearly with the road underdog Saints now.  Also helping out the value is the fact that the Saints are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS, while the Panthers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  Any time this is the case it's usually a good idea to back the 0-2 team because there is inflation in the line.

I refuse to believe that Carolina is a good team.  It went 7-8-1 last year and won the NFC South, and I know it is 2-0 this season, but it easily could have lost its first two games to the Jaguars and Texans.  The Panthers were actually outgained by the Jaguars in their 20-9 road win, and they needed a stop in the red zone to beat the Texans 24-17 in the closing second last week.

Carolina does have a solid defense, but it is likely going to be without its best player in Luke Keuchly (doubtful) again this week. Starting DT Star Lotulelei is also questionable to play with a foot injury.  Defensive end Frank Alexander just suffered a torn Achilles and will miss the remainder of the season as well.  For the time being, this defense is just an average unit at best.

What isn't in question is that Carolina has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The loss of Kelvin Benjamin was huge before the season, but the injuries continue to pile up.  The new No. 1 receiver after Benjamin went out was Jerricho Cotchery, but now he's out this week after suffering an ankle injury last week.  Running back Jonathan Stewart is also banged up with a knee injury and questionable to play Sunday.  The Panthers simply do not have the firepower offensively now to put away the Saints by more than a touchdown.

New Orleans is going to be playing motivated football Sunday.  The Saints know that their season is on the line here because they cannot afford to start 0-3.  They are also going to want revenge from a crucial late-season loss to the Panthers last year in which they were blown out 10-41 at home.  The Saints won the previous meeting 28-10 in Carolina, so clearly home-field advantage doesn't mean a whole lot in this series.

I do have faith that Luke McCown can move the offense just fine this week.  He has made nine starts in his career and has been with the Saints as their backup for each of the last three years.  They have trust in him based on his experience and skill set.  He flashed that in the preseason, completing 24 of 35 passes for 323 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions while often lining up with the first-team offense.  Teammates and head coach Sean Payton have expressed confidence in McCown all week, saying the game plan won't change much with him behind center.

Plays against favorites (CAROLINA) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The road team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings in this series.  Take the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Vikings -2

The Minnesota Vikings were a popular pick to bust through and make the playoffs this year after a 7-9 season last year. I am certainly one of the many on board with this theory. They won seven games without Adrian Peterson last year, and now that they have him for a full season, this team should contend for a playoff berth.

That couldn’t have looked further from the truth when they lost 3-20 at San Francisco in the opener. But they let the offseason hype go to their head, and the 49ers simply wanted that game more after getting bashed by the media all offseason. It was just a very bad spot for the Vikings and not an indication of what to expect in the future.

The Vikings responded in a big way last week with a 26-16 home win over the Detroit Lions. They got back to who they are, which is a ground and pound running team behind the best back in the league in Peterson. They fed the horse 29 times for 134 yards and rushed for 199 yards as a team. Peterson also had two receptions for 58 yards, totaling 192 yards from scrimmage.

Their defense limited the Lions to just 16 points and 323 yards in the win. This is one of the most underrated stop units in the NFL thanks to the guidance of Mike Zimmer, the former Bengals defensive coordinator. He took a Vikings defense that allowed 30 points per game in 2013 to just 21.4 points per game last year. I expect even more improvement this season, and the Vikings haven’t disappointed as they are giving up just 18.0 points per game thus far.

The San Diego Chargers have a solid offense and will challenge the Vikings, but there’s no question that the edge on defense goes to the home team. The Chargers have allowed an average of 26.0 points per game to the Lions and Bengals, who aren’t exactly known as offensive juggernauts. The Bengals shredded them for 389 total yards last week, including 175 on the ground. Peterson has to be licking his chops at the opportunity to face this porous SD run defense.

Minnesota is a sneaky 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home in its last six games at TCF Bank Stadium. In fact, its only loss during this stretch came to the Green Bay Packers by a final of 21-24. That’s not a bad loss at all when you consider they were up against Aaron Rodgers and company, who rarely lose. I think the Vikings have a better home-field advantage than they are getting credit for here.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series, too. The home team is a perfect 4-0 straight up in the last four meetings dating back to 1999.  It's also worth noting that this is another early start for the Chargers.  West Coast teams historically struggle with games that start at 1:00 EST because their body is telling them it's 10:00 AM.  That was the case against Cincinnati last week, and it's the case again this week.

Minnesota is 19-7 ATS when playing with 6 or fewer days’ rest over the past three seasons. The Chargers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Vikings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts -3

The Indianapolis Colts are undervalued right now because they have started 0-2.  They haven't looked great in doing so, either, losing to the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets by a combined 26 points.  The betting public was all over them the first two weeks, but now they are scared to back the Colts after what they've seen.  That makes this the perfect time to jump on board.

It's not time for panic for the Colts.  After all, they started 0-2 last season, yet managed to win 11 games for the third consecutive year.  They went on to play in the AFC Championship Game.  While I did not agree that the Colts were going to be the best team in the AFC like many did coming into the year, I do still think they are one of the top three teams, and that will show as the season progresses.

The culprit of this 0-2 start is turnovers.  In fact, the Colts have turned the ball over a whopping eight times through two games.  That's a ridiculously high number, but it's not going to continue.  They faced two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Jets and Bills, and now they get to take on a Tennessee defense that's simply not that good.  Andrew Luck will not make the same mistakes he has, and a clean performance will lead to a blowout victory.

The Titans are overvalued right now due to the hype surrounding Marcus Mariota.  He threw four touchdown passes against the Bucs in his first game, which resulted in a 42-14 victory.  But the Titans only manged 309 total yards in that game, which should make it impossible to score 42 points.  The Bucs just kept turning the ball over and giving the Titans easy scores.  I believe Tennessee's true colors showed last week in a 14-28 loss at Cleveland to Johnny Manziel and company.

The Colts have simply owned the Titans in this series.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings dating back to 2011.  They won both meetings last year by a combined score of 68-27.  They outgained the Titans 378-192 in a 27-10 road win on December 28.  They also outgained the Titans 498-261 in a 41-17 home victory on September 28. Another blowout can be expected for the 8th consecutive time in this series.

Indianapolis is a perfect 10-0 ATS against division opponents over the last three seasons.  Tennessee is 1-11 ATS following one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Indianapolis is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games following a loss.  Tennessee is 1-10-2 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Colts Sunday.

15* USC/Arizona State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -5

I still believe the USC Trojans are one of the two best teams in the Pac-12 right alongside Stanford. They are certainly the best team in the loaded Pac-12 South, which says something considering they reside in that division with the likes of UCLA, ASU, Arizona and Utah. It was just a blip on the radar last week with their loss to Stanford, which wanted that game more after losing by a field goal each of the previous two seasons to the Trojans.  That loss will actually have the Trojans refocused and motivated this week.

The Trojans clearly won’t be lacking any motivation anyways, though that loss to Stanford does help. They have lost three of their last four meetings with Arizona State, including a 38-34 home loss last year. ASU scored three touchdowns in the final 3:23 to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.  It’s payback time Saturday night as this is the best team that USC has had since Pete Carroll left. All of the scholarship sanctions are gone, and the Trojans now have a very deep, talented roster.

I have not been impressed one bit with Arizona State this season. It was outgained by 134 yards in its 17-38 loss to Texas A&M in the opener and didn’t look like it even belonged on the same field as the Aggies. Then, the Sun Devils were flat against Cal Poly in a 35-21 home win as 34.5-point favorites, failing to cover by nearly 21 points. They also didn’t cover in a 34-10 home win over New Mexico as 25-point favorites. That was a 24-10 game in the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils scored the final 10 points.

USC features a high-octane offense that is putting up 48.3 points and 557.7 yards per game this season. Cody Kessler is still a Heisman Trophy candidate with the way he’s been playing. Kessler is completing 78.7 percent of his passes for 922 yards with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions to this point. Tre Madden is averaging 7.4 yards per carry, Ronald Jones is averaging 9.4, and Justin Davis is averaging 9.2.

With Kessler's numbers and the jaw-dropping yards-per-carry average of their three top running backs, the Trojans should move the ball at will on this ASU defense.  The Sun Devils have given up at least 178 rushing yards in each of their first three games.  They are allowing 215 yards per game rushing this season.  This defense simply is not very good.

I have not been impressed with Arizona State’s offense one bit, either. It is only averaging 28.7 points and 423.7 yards per game despite playing both Cal Poly and New Mexico, which have horrible defenses. The Sun Devils only managed 291 total yards against Texas A&M in their opener. In what is expected to be a shootout, I simply do not believe the Sun Devils have the firepower to keep up with this high-powered USC attack.

USC is a perfect 8-0 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 20.6 points per game in this spot. This has been a resilient bunch to say the least, and that will be on display Saturday as all of the motivational factors are working in the Trojans’ favor in this one.  Take USC Saturday.

15* Mississippi State/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -3

You're not going to get a better price on Auburn the rest of the season.  Now is the time to buy low on the Tigers after their 21-45 loss at LSU last week, which followed an overtime win over Jacksonville State as 39-point favorites the previous week.  I was very down on Auburn coming into the season unlike most, but now I'm reversing roles here and backing them while everyone else is down on them.

Auburn is making a switch at quarterback this week, and I really believe it's the right move.  There was a lot of hype surrounding Jeremy Johnson coming into the season, but he just hasn't gotten it done with only 473 passing yards and six interceptions in three games.  It was absolutely the right call for head coach Gus Malzahn to bench him this week.

Malzahn is putting his trust in freshman Shaun White, who was the 14th-ranked QB prospect coming out of high school.  Everything I've read about this guy is that he is a winner.  After he has a big game against Mississippi State this week, you're not going to get to back him at this kind of a price again, so now is the time to do so while the price is right.

"I feel like that's best for our offense right now," Malzahn said. "Sean White is a guy that has got a lot of reps. He's responded very well in practice, very well in scrimmages, and I just feel like he needs a shot right now. We've got a lot of confidence in him right now.”

White has participated in two Elite 11 QB camps and also a Nike training camp.  He shined in a 7-on-7 circuit with South Florida Express, a team loaded with elite players.  At a 7-on-7 event in Oregon, he thrived against 160 four-and-five star recruits.

His team, the Field Generals, began the tournament by losing their first game by almost 40 points, but that was a game White didn't play in.  The Field Generals rallied to win the 7-on-7 title after White led them on a last-minute touchdown drive for a 21-14 comeback victory.  That championship carried White, who ended up committing to Auburn two weeks later, a school he didn't have an offer from before coming to Oregon.  He earned MVP honors in that tournament as well as the Elite 11.

What I'm saying is that this guy is good, and it will show right away against a Mississippi State team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Bulldogs are the least-experienced team in the SEC with just 7 returning starters.

They only outgained Southern Miss by 29 yards in a 34-16 win in their opener.  That's a Southern Miss team that was 4-32 over the previous three seasons.  I think that performance just shows that the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as they were last season.

The reason they are getting so much respect is because they lost to LSU 21-19, while Auburn lost to LSU 21-45.  But you have to consider that LSU led Mississippi State 21-6 in the fourth quarter.  You also have to consider that Mississippi State played LSU at home, while Auburn played LSU on the road.

Auburn has won five of its last seven meetings with Mississippi State.  The home team has won each of the last four meetings.  Auburn is 6-1 in its last seven home meetings with Mississippi State.  The Tigers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference opponent.  I fully expect the Tigers to play inspired football this weekend after getting bashed all week.  White will be the biggest reason they come out on top.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +25

Ole Miss is coming off the biggest win in college football last week.  It stood toe-to-toe with Alabama and dominated the majority of the game, eventually coming away with a 43-37 victory.  ESPN College Gameday was in Tuscaloosa last week, so the stage couldn't have been bigger or brighter.  Ole Miss stood up to the test and is now the No. 3 ranked team in the country.

But off such an emotional win, it's only human nature for Ole Miss to suffer a letdown this week.  It won't be near as focuses to face Vanderbilt, thinking that it just has to show up to win.  That's the kind of mindset that makes it very difficult to cover massive spreads like this 24.5-point number the oddsmakers have set.  I look for the Commodores to give the Rebels a scare this week.

It's clear to me that Vanderbilt is already one of the most improved teams in the country.  That doesn't show up in the win/loss column because it is just 1-2 on the season.  However, a closer look at the two losses shows that the Commodores really played two fine games and could have won.  They also beat Austin Peay 47-7 last week to get their first win of the season.

In the opener, Vanderbilt lost at home 12-14 to Western Kentucky.  But there's no way the Commodores should have lost that game considering they outgained the Hilltoppers by 147 total yards.  That's the same Western Kentucky team that hung 41 points on Louisiana Tech and 35 points on Indiana this year.  The Commodores held the Hilltoppers to just 247 total yards.

Yes, Vanderbilt also lost at home to Georgia 14-31 as 18-point dogs, but that game was much closer than the final score showed.  The Commodores were only outgained 400-422, or by 22 total yards.  After seeing what Georgia did to South Carolina last week, it's safe to say the Commodores aren't to be taken lightly this year.

It's pretty easy to see why this team is so much better than last year.  They returned 18 starters after having just 10 back last season as they were very young.  Their defense is always good and is again this season, but the improvement on offense has been huge.  They had 400 total yards against Georgia and are averaging 444.7 yards per game.  Despite playing Western Kentucky and Georgia, their defense is only giving up 17.3 points and 271.0 yards per game.

The Commodores finally have a quarterback in Johnny McCray.  He is completing 59.8 percent of his passes for 880 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions this season.  He has also rushed for 124 yards and a score while averaging 5.9 per carry.  He is the type of quarterback that can make plays against this Ole Miss defense, just as he did against Georgia when he threw for 295 yards in that 17-point loss.

Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite.  Plays on road underdogs (VANDERBILT) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California -3

California is the biggest sleeper to win the Pac-12 this season.  The Golden Bears improved from 1-11 in Sonny Dykes' first season to 5-7 last year, and four of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less to Arizona (45-49), UCLA (34-36), USC (30-38) and BYU (35-42), which were all bowl teams last year.

Dykes returned 17 starters and a whopping 58 lettermen this season.  In fact, this is the most veteran team in the Pac-12 this year with all 22 of their starters either juniors or seniors.  I can't stress enough that it's time to back this team early in the season before all of the value is gone, including this week.

Cal was very impressive in its first two contests, which is no surprise.  Cal beat Grambling 73-14 in the opener and outgained them by 359 total yards.  Then it beat San Diego State 35-7 as 12.5-point home favorites and outgained the Aztecs by 160 total yards.

Cal has had an elite offense over the last two years and it's even better this season, but it's the defense that now makes this team a threat to win the Pac-12.  After being dreadful the past two seasons, the Golden Bears held their first two opponents to an average 10.5 points per game, 311 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  All the talk out of camp was how improved this D was going to be, and that certainly appears to be the case.

That defense did not hold up very well against Texas last week, but you have to consider that this was a 45-24 game before the Golden Bears took their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter.  Texas scored 20 unanswered points in the final period, but missed an extra point that would have forced OT.  But since California did cover the 5-point spread last week, I believe it is being undervalued here.  This team really should be 3-0 ATS if not for that blown lead.  I look for Dykes to use it as a teaching opportunity that you can never let up.

California's offense doesn't let up one bit.  This is probably the most underrated offense in the country led by a potential No. 1 NFL draft pick in Jared Goff.  They are averaging 51.0 points, 563.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  This was a good offense the last two years, too, but now in Goff's third season it's reaching new heights.  Goff is completing 73.1 percent of his passes for 898 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions this year.

Washington is a team in rebuilding mode.  It returned just 9 starters this season and lost four players to the NFL Draft in the first and second rounds.  Back-to-back home wins over Utah State (31-17) and Sacramento State (49-0) has Washington overvalued here, but the betting public sees its 13-16 road loss at Boise State in the opener and doesn't consider that a bad loss.

Well, a closer look at that Boise State game shows that it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Huskies were actually outgained by 158 total yards by the Broncos.  Their offense only mustered 179 total yards and remains a work in progress.  Now the Huskies will be playing their toughest opponent yet in Cal, which has a winning record.  That's significant because despite going 8-6 last season, the Huskies did not beat one team that had a winning record.

It's payback time for Cal this week, too.  The Golden Bears have lost six straight meetings in this series, including a 7-31 home loss last year.  That game was far from the blowout that that the score would indicate as Cal was only outgained 368-384, or by 16 total yards.  With 17 starters back for Cal and 9 back for Washington, it's clear to me that these are two teams heading in opposite directions this season.  That will show up in the final score Saturday.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with California Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Letdown Spot on UMass +28.5

This is the ideal letdown spot for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Not too many folks gave them a chance last week against Georgia Tech as they were home underdogs.  They were determined to prove their naysayers wrong and pulled off the 30-22 upset as they were a dog in most places all week.

Off such an emotional win, this is clearly a letdown spot.  But it's also a lookahead spot because the Fighting Irish travel to face No. 11 Clemson next week.  It's pretty clear to me that the Fighting Irish won't be focused for this game against UMass, and they aren't going to win by more than four touchdowns as a result.

I love fading Notre Dame as a big home favorite.  The Irish are 28-point favorites against the Minutemen, one of the largest point spreads during Brian Kelly's six seasons as Irish coach. No. 11 Notre Dame was 28-point favorites against Purdue last season and won 30-12. The 14th-ranked Irish were 29.5-point favorites against Temple to open the 2013 season and won 28-6. No. 11 Notre Dame also was 24.5-point favorite favorites against Boston College in 2011 and won only 16-14.  That's not a very good track record under Kelly.

UMass only went 3-9 last year and is undervalued in the early going as a result.  But five of its nine losses came by 7 points or less, and it only lost one game by more than 23 points last year.  The Minutemen now have 19 returning starters this year and are a sleeper in the MAC.

After opening with a 14-48 loss at Colorado in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated, the Minutemen showed what they were capable of last week by nearly upsetting Temple.  They lost 23-25 at home as 13.5-point underdogs.  But Temple is obviously a great team with two great wins already over both Penn State and Cincinnati.

No team in the country has been hit harder by injuries than Notre Dame up to this point.  "Certainly we can't afford to lose any more players at key positions: Quarterback, running back, you start to get into true freshmen, and that will be obviously a significant change in what we look like," Kelly said Sunday.

Sophomore safety Drue Tranquill became the sixth player for the Fighting Irish to sustain a season-ending injury when he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee Saturday while celebrating a pass breakup in the end zone against Georgia Tech.

Defensive lineman Jarron Jones was the first to go down in mid-August with a torn medial collateral ligament in his right knee when at the end of a play Notre Dame tackle Mike McGlinchey pushed linebacker Joe Schmidt, who fell in to Jones. Freshman nickel back Shaun Crawford , who had been practicing with the starters, during a one-on-one drill when he was backpedaling, turned and planted and tore his ACL.

Running back Tarean Folston, who led the Irish in rushing last season, tore the ACL in his right knee on his third carry of the season against Texas. Quarterback Malik Zaire fractured his ankle when his leg got trapped under a Virginia player on a run. Tight end Durham Smythe tore the MCL in his right knee in the final minute when a teammate fell into his leg.

One important thing to have when backing big underdogs like this is a good quarterback who can lead the offense to points.  UMass certainly has that in Blake Frohnapfel.  Last year, he threw for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  He has thrown for 618 and four touchdowns with two picks in two games thus far, which is pretty good against defenses the caliber of Temple and Colorado.

Notre Dame is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points.  The Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +25

This is an awful spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They are coming off two huge wins with their 31-17 win at in-state rival Iowa State and their 27-24 home win over Pittsburgh.  They kicked a 57-yard game-winning field goal as time expired to beat the Panthers last week.

Now, the Hawkeyes will be coming down for their emotional high, especially with the Big Ten opener at Wisconsin next week.  They know that the Big Ten West runs through Wisconsin, so they will clearly be looking ahead to that game.  They won't give North Texas the focus it deserves to cover this massive 25-point spread.

Iowa is not good at covering these huge spread.  The Hawkeyes play a very conservative style and have for years under Kirk Ferentz.  They never seem concerned with running up the score.  They seem to have a way of playing up or down to their competition every week, too.

Yes, they led Illinois State big most of the way in the opener, but they only ended up winning that game 31-14, or by 17 points.  I could see a similar score here.  Last year, all of Iowa's non-conference games were close, too.  They only beat Northern Iowa by 8 at home, Ball State by 4 at home, lost to Iowa State by 3 at home, and beat Pitt by 4 on the road.

You can count on two fingers how many wins Iowa has by more than 24 points over the past four seasons.  They only had one last year and that was a 48-7 win over Northwestern.  They only had one in 2013 and that was a 59-3 win over Western Michigan.  They didn't have one in 2012.  In fact, Iowa has only beaten 2 of its last 49 opponents by more than 24 points.  That's a 47-2 system working in North Texas' favor.

The betting public wants nothing to do with North Texas after an 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS start.  The Mean Green lost to SMU 13-31 on the road in the opener, but SMU had TCU on the ropes in the 4th quarter last week.  They lost to Rice 24-38 at home last week, but that game was closer than the score showed.  They were only outgained by 84 yards.  The Mean Green have committed 7 turnovers in two games and must improve in that department.

North Texas coach Dan McCarney was a former assistant at Iowa.  He was also the head coach at Iowa State for a number of years and faced Kirk Ferentz numerous times.  His familiarity with Ferentz and the Hawks will come in handy here.  It will also serve as extra motivation for McCarney as this game means a little more to him.

Plays against a home team (IOWA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Iowa is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games off a no-cover where it won as a favorite.  The Mean Green are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take North Texas Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -1

The Tennessee Vols are the real deal this season and my pick to win the SEC East.  They returned 18 starters this year and Butch Jones had put together back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes.  It has all come to fruition thus far as the Volunteers should be 3-0 had they not blown a 14-point 4th quarter lead to a very good Oklahoma team.

The proof that the Vols have turned the corner will come against Florida this weekend.  They have lost 10 straight meetings with the Gators, so they're obviously going to be about as motivated as a team could ever be.  They came close last year in a 10-9 home loss, which is only going to add fuel to the fire.

Florida is not a good team this year.  Yes, it is 3-0, but it could easily be 1-2 right now.  Florida beat East Carolina 31-24 at home in Week 2 and only outgained the Pirates by 40 yards.  That win really looks bad now when ECU lost to Navy 45-21 last week.  The Gators only outgained Kentucky by 4 total yards in their 14-9 road win last week as well.

Jim McElwain clearly isn't the offensive savior that everyone thought he'd be right away.  The Gators only put up 245 total yards on Kentucky last week.  They aren't going to be able to keep up with this high-powered Tennessee attack that is one of the most underrated in the country.

Since Josh Dobbs took over as the starting quarterback, this Tennessee offense has been rolling.  They have scored 45 or more points in five of his last eight starts, which is a huge number.  They have already hung 55-plus points twice this season.  Their defense is improved this year as well and limited a strong Oklahoma attack to just 348 total yards, in double-overtime no less.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - in conference games, after playing 2 straight non-conference games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Vols are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Gators are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing a game where 29 or fewer total points were scored.  Florida is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 home games after scoring 14 points or less last game.  The Gators are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Central Michigan +27

Michigan State is clearly overvalued this season.  It has opened up 3-0 but 0-3 against the spread.  That hasn't stopped the betting public from backing them, or the oddsmakers from jacking up their lines.  That's especially the case now that they are the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  These highly-ranked teams are overvalued week in and week out.

Obviously the 3-point win over Oregon was huge, but the other two wins have been far from impressive.  They only beat Western Michigan by 13 as 16.5-point favorites.  They also only beat Air Force by 14 as 24.5-point favorites.  They were actually outgained by 104 yards by Air Force last week, but the Falcons committed 6 personal foul penalties and 3 turnovers, or they actually could have pulled off the upset.  Despite being 3-0, the Spartans are actually getting outgained by 26 yards per game on the season.  That's not the sign of a very good team.

I love fading Big Ten favorites of 20 points or more.  Sure, I'm not going to do this blindly, but I have learned how to pick my spots over time.  Big Ten favorites of 20-plus points went 0-5 against the spread last week.  The Big Ten in general plays a slow, methodical game that tends to lead to defensive battles, which makes it hard for them to cover these big spreads.  Michigan State is no exception.

Central Michigan is flying under the radar this season due to its 1-2 start.  But the Chippewas played an improved Oklahoma State team very tough in the opener, only losing 13-24 as 21-point underdogs.  They were only outgained by 77 yards in that game.  They beat Monmouth by 21 before losing to Syracuse 27-30 (OT) on the road last week.  The Chippewas outplayed the Orange and should have won as they outgained them 520-326 for the game, or by 194 total yards.

I love backing big underdogs with good quarterbacks who can put up points on offense because you're never out of it when this is the case.  Well, Cooper Rush is the real deal this season.  He is completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 983 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions through three games.  Plus, the Chippewas have been better defensively than they are getting credit for here.  They are only giving up 309 yards per game this season, and holding Oklahoma State to 24 points is no small feat.

Just like Air Force and Western Michigan, which are two comparable teams to Central Michigan, the Chippewas will hang with the Spartans this week.  The Chippewas are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 games following a ATS win.  Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games, 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss, 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Chippewas.  Take Central Michigan Saturday.

25* CFB UPSET GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +7

I backed Connecticut last week and will ride this gravy train again Saturday as it continues to be undervalued.  The Huskies led most of the way against Missouri last week as 21.5-point road underdogs and only lost 9-6 when they went for a fake field goal and the win at the end of the game.

UConn really should be 3-0 against the spread right now, too.  After upsetting one of the best FCS teams in the country in Villanova 20-15 as 6.5-point home dogs, UConn only beat Army 22-17 as 6.5-point home favorites.  But the Huskies outgained Army by 150 total yards and should have won by more.

That game against Missouri was every bit as close as the final score indicated.  The Huskies were only outgained by 37 yards in their 9-6 loss.  Their defense held the Tigers to just 270 yards of offense and is one of the more underrated stop units in the country.  UConn is giving up just 13.7 points, 279.3 yards per game and 4.8 per play.

UConn has been sound against the run, giving up 126 yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  It held Missouri to just 85 yards on 34 carries last week.  Even Army, which usually produces huge rushing totals, could only muster up 180 yards.  That's big because UConn has already faced a triple-option team, so it will know exactly how to stop Navy this week.  That extra preparation the Huskies got for the triple-option cannot be overstated.

Navy is way overvalued here due to blowing out two lesser opponents at home in Colgate and East Carolina.  The Midshipmen are a quality team year in and year out, but they should not be favored by a touchdown on the road against the Huskies.  Their defense gave up 405 total yards to ECU last week, including 325 passing, and that game was much closer than the 45-21 score would indicate.

Connecticut is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 9 or fewer points in its last game.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 50-15 (76.9%) ATS since 1992.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - off a road loss, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS since 1992.  While I'm calling for the upset, I'm taking the +7 here and this play will be graded on the +7.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

20* Boise State/Virginia ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 49

I don’t have a real good feel for the side in this game. I believe Boise State being a small favorite is about right. I just don’t really trust either of these teams to win this game in what is essentially a pick ’em. But I do see some value in the total as I believe this is going to be a low-scoring affair.

Virginia has been a pretty good defensive team through the years with little offense. That’s the case in 2015 as its offense is sub-par once again, while its defense is better than the numbers show up to this point. The Cavaliers have played two high-powered offenses in Notre Dame and UCLA, so thus it is giving up 445 yards per game through three games.

The Cavaliers have not fared very well offensively in the early going. They are only putting up 375 total yards per game and only managed 373 against William & Mary last week. This is an offense that put up 374 yards per game last season and doesn’t look to be any better, especially with so many losses and only five starters back.

Boise State is no longer an elite offensive team. It lost its two best players on offense from last year in RB Jay Ajayi and QB Grand Hedrick. Now, starting QB Ryan Finley is out with an ankle injury, and this offense is really in trouble. The Broncos only managed 16 points against Washington in their opener and 24 against a suspect BYU defense. Sure, they racked up 52 points on Idaho State last week, but that’s far from impressive.

The Broncos are much more reliant on their defense this season than they have been in year’s past. That’s a pretty good unit to rely on when you consider the Broncos returned eight starters on that side of the ball. They held Washington to just 179 total yards, BYU to a respectable 381 total yards, and Idaho State to 298 yards. They are only giving up 16.0 points, 286 yards per game and 4.2 per play this season.

Virginia is 40-14 UNDER versus good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry since 1992.  Virginia is 41-16 UNDER versus good defensive teams that give up 310 or fewer yards per game since 1992.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Cavaliers last 10 home games off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

Plays on the UNDER on roadteams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (BOISE ST) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 50-19 (72.5%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Redskins/Giants NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York -3.5

The New York Giants are essentially already in a must-win situation. The chips are already stacked against them considering only 11 percent of teams since 1990 to open 0-2 have made the playoffs. It’s safe to say that they are going to be extra motivated to avoid suffering their third straight loss to start the season.

New York essentially should be 2-0 right now if its defense could have held late in both of the losses to the Cowboys and Falcons, where they blew double-digit second half leads in each. But the offense deserves some of the blame, too, failing to put away both of those teams. They settled for a field goal in the final two minutes against the Cowboys after Rashad Jennings was instructed not to score. They fumbled inside the Atlanta 10-yard line in the 4th quarter or would have added on more points.

Now the Giants get a break this week because they get to face a team they have simply dominated in recent years. The Giants are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Redskins, and none have even really been all that close. All four wins have come by 7 points or more. They have won by 13, 31, 14 and 7 points in the last four meetings, respectively. That’s an average margin of victory of 16.3 points per game.

The Redskins did bounce back nicely following a 10-17 home loss to the Dolphins in the opener with a 24-10 home win over the Rams last week. But they clearly caught the Rams in a letdown spot after they had beaten the two-time defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks at home the previous week. The Redskins are banged up right now as WR DeSean Jackson (out), LB Perry Riley (questionable) and CB Chris Culliver (questionable) are all possibly out for this one.

The Giants get a huge boost defensively this week due to the season debut of middle linebacker Jon Beason.  He is the leader of this defense and a beast against the run.  That's key because the Redskins lead the league in rushing through two weeks at 171 yards per game.  Well, the Giants rank 3rd in the league against the run, giving up 68 yards per game and 3.0 per carry.  That makes this a good matchup for them and an even better one now that Beason is back.

Odell Beckham Jr. got going last week with 146 receiving yards and a touchdown.  He had 12 receptions for 143 yards and his first three-touchdown game the last time these teams met in a 24-13 victory for New York on December 14.  Eli Manning was 51-of-73 for 550 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in last season's sweep of the Redskins.  Washington has gone 1-7 on the road in each of the past two seasons and is 2-12 in its last 14 games against NFC East opponents.  The Redskins hit the road for the first time this season.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off an upset win as a home underdog are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Redskins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Washington is 15-37-3 ATS in its last 55 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games. New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game.  Take the Giants Thursday.

20* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati +10

This line is clearly inflated whether or not Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel plays tonight.  If he plays it would just be an added bonus, and head coach Tommy Tuberville believes that there's a good chance he will take the field Thursday.

“He’ll have a good chance to play,” Bearcats coach Tommy Tuberville told reporters Tuesday of Kiel, who has thrown for 805 yards and five touchdowns in three games.  Backup Hayden Moore came in when Kiel exited against Miami Ohio when the score was 24-23 and eventually led the game-winning drive, so he at least got his feet wet if he needs to play.

The key here is that Cincinnati is better than the final scores would indicate to this point.  Cincinnati outgained Alabama by 390 yards in a 52-10 home win, outgained Temple by 261 yards in a 24-34 home loss, and outgained Miami Ohio by 97 yards in a 37-33 road win.

When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that the Bearcats are a very good team.  They rank 7th in the country in total offense at 579.3 yards per game, and their defense is only giving up 330.0 yards per game, so they are outgaining teams by an average of 249.3 yards per game.  The problem has been turnovers as the Bearcats have already committed 11 of them, which is correctable.

The Memphis Tigers are a good team again this season and I don't want to take too much away from them.  But they have faced three awful defenses in opening 3-0 in Missouri State, Kansas and Bowling Green.  They now will be facing the toughest team they have played yet, and it's not really even close.  Asking them to win by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

This is a Tigers defense that returned just three starters from last year and won't be very good as the season goes on. They gave up 41 points and 579 total yards to Bowling Green last time out, but escaped with a 44-41 victory thanks to facing one of the worse defenses in the country in the Falcons.

Memphis is going to have to deal with a ton of playmakers on Cincinnati's side.  The Bearcats have three players who have rushed for at least 220 yards already this season.  Mike Boone (220 yards, 9.6/carry) is an absolute stud, and he is probable to play tonight after his status was in doubt.  Their two best receivers in Shaq Washington and Mekale McKay were also in doubt earlier this week, but both are expected to play, which will give the offense a huge boost.

Finally, Cincinnati is going to be highly motivated following an embarrassing 41-14 home loss to Memphis last year.  The Tigers caught them completely off guard early in the season.  It's payback time now as the road team has won each of the last two meetings in this series.  Look for the Bearcats to play with a serious chip on their shoulder in this one.

The Bearcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight conference games.  The Tigers are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games after scoring 42 or more points in their previous game.  Memphis is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games following two more more consecutive wins.  Tommy Tuberville is 12-3 ATS off two straight games where his team has committed 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

20* Jets/Colts ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +7

The New York Jets are almost mirror images of the Buffalo Bills, who beat the Colts 27-14 last week, and will find some success in this game because of it. They boast a Top 5 defense led by the addition of Darrelle Revis, and they have a bruising running game. I actually think the Jets have a better quarterback than the Bills in Ryan Fitzpatrick, too, and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.

The Colts’ offense was stymied by the Bills last week. They were held to just 14 points and 304 total yards. Andrew Luck was confused and under duress all game, completing 26 of 49 passes for 243 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The ground game was held to just 64 yards on 17 carries as well.

Indianapolis was not great defensively against a Bills offense that wasn’t expected to be good. The Bills managed 27 points and 342 total yards on the Colts, whose weakness is their defense. They rushed for 147 yards on 36 carries, and I look for the Jets to have the same kind of success on the ground in this one.

New York had its running game going against a good Cleveland defense last week in a 31-10 victory. It rushed for 154 yards on 36 carries, led by 91 yards and two touchdowns by Chris Ivory. Fitzpatrick was efficient, completing 15 of 24 passes for 179 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Marshall made his presence felt right away, catching six balls for 62 yards and a score.

I know Cleveland doesn’t have an elite offense, but the Jets did what they were supposed to do and held the Browns to just 10 points and 321 total yards. They limited Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown to 18 of 32 passing for 231 yards and a touchdown with an interception, while also forcing two fumbles to get three takeaways in all. Head coach Todd Bowles is a defensive mastermind, which was proven in Arizona the past few years, and he will have an excellent game plan in place to stop the Colts.

The Jets have had the Colts number through the years. They are 5-3 straight up in the last eight meetings despite being an underdog in six of those. Indianapolis has only beaten New York by more than seven points once in those eight meetings. The Jets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.

It’s worth noting that the Colts will likely be without their best receiver in T.Y. Hilton for this one. Frank Gore was also injured against the Bills and is questionable to return this week. The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC opponents. The Colts are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* AFC Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Bengals -3

Admittedly, I may not have been giving the Bengals enough credit coming into the season. In fact, I didn’t give the Chargers much credit, either. But I think the Bengals will cover this 3-point spread as I was much more impressed with the way they went on the road and beat Oakland last week than I was with the Chargers’ home win over the Lions.

Cincinnati thoroughly dominated what was supposed to be an improved Raiders team from start to finish. It outgained the Raiders by 150 total yards for the game. This was a bigger blowout even than the 33-13 final showed as the Raiders scored all 13 of their points in the 4th quarter when the game was already decided. The Bengals clearly took their foot off the gas late after taking a commanding 33-0 lead.

Andy Dalton is still a solid regular season quarterback. He went 25 of 34 for 269 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He also has more weapons than he’s ever had with A.J. Green and a healthy Tyler Eifert at his disposal. Eifert’s presence was felt in the opener as he had nine receptions for 104 yards and two touchdowns, showing why he was a former 1st-round pick.

The rushing game was solid as usual, too, as the Bengals amassed 127 yards on the ground. That's actually a below-average number for this offense compared to last year.  The Bengals have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and will overpower a suspect San Diego front seven.  The defense held the Raiders to just 246 total yards in the win and is once again solid this year.

San Diego did erase a 21-3 deficit to beat Detroit in the opener, but it clearly has some holes on defense after giving up 28 points. I like what I saw from the Chargers offense against the Lions, but that’s a Lions defense that will take a huge step back this year with the loss of Ndamukong Suh. I don’t expect the Chargers to have nearly as much success against this impressive Bengals defense on the road this week.

Cincinnati is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with San Diego. The Bengals have outgained the Chargers in seven straight meetings. Even in their playoff loss to the Chargers a couple years ago, the Bengals outgained them 439-318 for the game, but shot themselves in the foot. Cincinnati has held San Diego to 334 or fewer total yards in each of the last four meetings. It clearly has this Chargers offense figured out.

The Bengals are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring 24 or more points in their previous game. The Chargers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. AFC opponents. San Diego is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall. Cincinnati is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games.  The Bengals have one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the NFL, going 14-2-1 SU in their last 17 games in Cincinnati.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Texans +3

The Houston Texans are going to come back hungry for a victory after opening 0-1 with a loss to the Chiefs.  The Texans dug themselves too big of a hole early and couldn't quite recover, losing 20-27 to a very good Kansas City team.  But they actually outgained the Chiefs by 66 total yards in the loss and held KC to a respectable 330 total yards.

Ryan Mallett took over for an ineffective Brian Hoyer in the second half, and the offense actually looked its best with Mallett running the show.  He finished 8 of 13 passing for 98 yards and a touchdown.  Head coach Bill O'Brien was impressed also because he has named Mallett the starter this week.  I look for this offense to live up to its potential as he's a much better passer than Hoyer and capable of making all the throws.

Carolina is coming off an ugly 20-9 win at Jacksonville.  That's a bad, bad Jacksonville team.  While the defense played well, the offense looked terrible against the Jaguars as expected.  The Panthers managed just 263 total yards for the game and were actually outgained by two yards.  This Carolina offense is going to really struggle against what is a better Houston defense now with J.J. Watt and a healthy Jadeveon Clowney teaming up to wreak havoc up front.

I just trust in O'Brien to light a fire under his team knowing that the Texans cannot start 0-2 if they want a chance to make the playoffs.  The stats say that only 25% of teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs, and I know O'Brien is well aware of it.  The Texans will come back the more motivated team in this one.

Let's get back to this Carolina offense.  This has to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL in 2015.  When your top receivers are Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery, you know you're in trouble.  Cam Newton is simply going to be asked to do too much all season, and the fact that the Panthers actually covered against the Jags last week works in our favor here.  The betting public doesn't yet know how bad this Carolina team is going to be, but I have a great feeling I do already.  The Panthers should not be favored in a game that I believe the Texans win outright.

The Panthers are missing their best player in Luke Keuchly, who suffered a concussion against the Jaguars and is listed as doubtful to play Sunday.  He has the most tackles in the NFL since he came into the league, and he is their leader on defense.  Without him, this is no more than an average defense.  The Panthers could also be without DT Dwan Edwards and DT Star Lotulelei, who are both questionable.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - good offense from last season - averaged 335 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in Week 2.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Vikings -2.5

The Minnesota Vikings should come back motivated from a poor performance in a 3-20 loss against the 49ers in the opener. I believe the 49ers simply wanted that game more after taking so much grief in the offseason. The Vikings admitted that they did not live up to the hype that was created for them with the return of Adrian Peterson, and they simply fell flat on their faces in the opener.

Minnesota will also be motivated from losing to the Lions in both meetings last season. In the second meeting, they lost 14-16 on the road, but thoroughly dominated that game. They outgained the Lions 360-233 for the game, or by 127 total yards. I believe the Vikings are still a team on the rise this season, while the Lions are not.

Adrian Peterson did not get enough touches against the 49ers to make a difference, and you can bet the Vikings will force-feed him in this one. He had just 10 carries for 31 yards against the 49ers. I expect him to get 20-plus carries in this one, which is when this offense is at its best, taking the pressure off of Teddy Bridgewater.

The Lions were outgained by 181 yards by the Chargers in a 28-33 loss. They benefited from a defensive touchdown en route to taking a 21-3 lead, but then their defense had all kinds of holes the rest of the way. The Chargers scored 30 straight points to take control of the game, racked up 483 total yards on the Lions, and it’s already clear that the Lions really miss Ndamukong Suh.

I certainly believe the Vikings have the better defense in this one. They went from allowing 30 points per game in 2013 to just 21.4 points per game last year in Mike Zimmer’s first season. They played pretty well against the 49ers until the fourth quarter, but they still only gave up 20 points. Their defense is built to stop the pass with elite rushers off the edge and a very good secondary, making this a better matchup for them against the pass-heavy Lions. They held Detroit to an average of 16.5 points per game in the two meetings last year.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) – off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS since 1983. The Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Minnesota is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss.  That last trend shows how resilient the Vikings have been.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants -2

The New York Giants are going to be hungry to come back with a win in their home opener after blowing the game against the Cowboys last week. They have been getting bashed in the media by the way they handled the clock management down the stretch, and that’s only going to add fuel to the fire.

The fact of the matter is that the Giants should have won that game against the Cowboys. This is a team that is clearly on the rise in my opinion, especially with the way they closed out last year. They scored 28, 24, 36, 24, 37 and 26 points over their final six games for an average of 29.2 points per game. Eli Manning and company put up 26 on the Cowboys in Week 1 as well.

Atlanta was one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL last season. It should be slightly better this year, but the fact of the matter is that it lacks overall talent on this side of the ball. The Eagles racked up 399 total yards on the Falcons on Monday Night Football and should have scored more than 24 points, but costly turnovers, penalties and missed field goals had them settling for that number.

One key advantage the Giants will have in this one is that they’ll have an extra day of rest. The Giants played on Sunday against the Cowboys, while the Falcons played on Monday against the Eagles. That extra day usually pays dividends in the NFL, and it’s always harder to come back on a short week like the Falcons after a MNF game.

I also believe the Giants will be the more motivated team in this one, as stated before. They know they cannot afford to drop to 0-2 because history says that teams that start 0-2 rarely make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Falcons will have a sense of satisfaction after upsetting the Eagles in a game everyone thought they'd lose last week and will not come back as motivated as a result.

The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win. New York is 5-1 straight up in its last six meetings with Atlanta. The home team is a perfect 4-0 straight up in the last four meetings dating back to 2009.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* BYU/UCLA Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +16.5

BYU continues to be underrated year in and year out.  That has been the case to open the 2015 season again.  BYU has pulled off back-to-back upsets over Nebraska (33-28) on the road and Boise State (35-24) at home.  Yet, it is now a 16.5-point underdog to UCLA this week and still lacking the respect it deserves.

The Cougars have put up great offensive numbers against two solid defenses.  They have scored 34.0 points per game and averaged 446.0 yards per game in their two wins.  The defense has held its own in allowing 26.0 points per game and 403.0 yards per game against two elite offenses as well.

BYU may be a better offense with Tanner Mangum under center.  He was one of the top QB recruits in the country coming out of high school, and even tied Jameis Winston for MVP honors in the Elite 11 camp.  He is a better passer than Taisom Hill.  Mangum has completed 61.5 percent of his passes for 420 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in just over one game of action.

UCLA is overvalued here.  It is expected to compete for a Pac-12 title this season with all of the returning starters it brought back.  While I believe this is a good team, I do not feel like the Bruins deserve to be 16.5-point favorites.  They were 18-point favorites over Virginia in a 34-16 home win in their opener.  BYU is clearly a better team than Virginia, and it's not really even close.

While the Bruins have a very good offense, their defense leaves a lot to be desired.  They gave up 28.1 points and 399 yards per game last season.  They returned eight starters on D, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to be much better.  They have faced two awful offenses in Virginia and UNLV in their first two games, and now I look for their weaknesses to be exploited against this underrated BYU offensive attack.

I also think this is a tough spot for UCLA.  It will be looking ahead to its Pac-12 opener next week at Arizona, which won the Pac-12 South last season.  UCLA clearly wants revenge on the Wildcats and wants to win the Pac-12 South this year, and it starts with beating Arizona next week.  The Bruins won't give the Cougars the full attention they deserve this week.

The Cougars are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  BYU is 7-1 ATS after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Bet BYU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SMU +37

The SMU Mustangs are clearly not the same joke of a team that they were last year when they went 1-11 after winning their final game of the season.  It's time to back them now while the perception is still out that SMU is still one of the worst teams in college football.

At the same time, the perception is that TCU is a national title contender.  While I believe that to be true, the fact of the matter is that oddsmakers are forced to set huge spread for TCU to have to cover due to what they did last year. It's going to be very hard for the Horned Frogs to live up to these lofty expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers in the early going.

That was clearly the case in a season-opening 23-17 win at Minnesota.  TCU was a 16-point favorite in that game and had to hold on for dear life in the end just to get the victory.  Sure, it came back and beat Stephen F. Austin 70-7 as a 45-point favorite last week, but that's an FCS team and one that is not nearly as good as this SMU squad.

Chad Morris, who was previously the offensive coordinator at Clemson and led the Tigers to numerous great seasons on that side of the ball, accepted the challenge of turning SMU around.  He actually inherited 16 returning starters this year, so he had some pieces to work with.  So far, he's done a tremendous job.

SMU opened the season with a 21-56 home loss to Baylor and covered the 37-point spread.  That was actually a 28-21 game at halftime before the Bears pulled away in the second half.  The Mustangs put up a respectable 369 total yards on a Baylor defense that was expected to be one of the best in the Big 12 with so much returning talent from last year.

Last week, SMU rolled North Texas 31-13 as a 6-point home favorite.  I'm not saying North Texas is a great team, but keep in mind that SMU had lost to North Texas 6-43 last year.  That just shows the kind of improvement this team has made.  That win over the Mean Green was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate.  The Mustangs outgained them 444-240, or by 204 total yards.

SMU is capable of putting up big points under the guidance of Chad Morris and behind former Texas A&M transfer Matt Davis, who was the 6th-rated QB recruit in the country coming out of high school.  Davis has been brilliant through two games, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 337 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for a team-high 240 yards and two scores.  With a QB of his caliber, SMU is more than capable of staying within five touchdowns of TCU.

Yes, TCU does have one of the best offenses in the country again this year, but it's defense is sure to take a big step back as the season goes on.  The Horned Frogs only returned five starters on defense and lost six of their top seven tacklers from last year.  Making matters worse is that they have been hit by injuries on this side of the ball already.

Two of those five returning starters were DE James McFarland and DT Davion Pierson, and both are out for this game due to injury.  Plus, three more of their projected starters on defense are hurt and will miss this game in FS Kenny Iloka, LB Mike Freeze and LB Sammy Douglas.  Their defense has held up against two poor offenses through the first two games, but I have no doubt Davis and this SMU offense will find plenty of success in this one.  Roll with SMU Saturday.

15* Stanford/USC ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Stanford +9.5

I believe the value is with the road underdog Cardinal in this one. That is evident to me when you consider that this was only a 5-point spread before the season started, and now it has moved 5.5 points in USC’s favor with a line of 10.5 now. I don’t believe that is warranted even though the Cardinal already have a loss. If anything, that has them extra motivated coming in knowing their margin for error now is very slim.

I like the way that Stanford responded from its loss at Northwestern last week. It beat a quality Central Florida team 31-7 at 20-point home favorites. This game was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Cardinal outgained the Knights by 310 total yards for the game. The offense racked up 491 yards behind 341 passing and three touchdowns from Kevin Hogan, while the defense limited the Knights to just 181 total yards.

USC has won and covered each of its first two games of the season, which has it overvalued here. The Trojans have played a very soft schedule, beating Arkansas State by 49 and Idaho by 50. They were 27-point favorites over Arkansas State and 44-point favorites over Idaho, so they were supposed to roll. I believe that easy early schedule will work against them here as the Cardinal are the more battle-tested team with a much tougher schedule thus far.

Plus, Stanford is going to be motivated after getting upset by USC each of the last two seasons by a field goal. The Cardinal outgained the Trojans by 26 yards in a 17-20 road loss in 2013. They then outgained the Trojans by a whopping 138 yards last year despite losing 10-13 at home. They limited the high-powered USC offensive attack to just 291 total yards last season, and their offense racked up 429 yards, but shot themselves in the foot by not capitalizing in USC territory time after time.

One thing that really stands out to me is how close of a series this has been in recent years. In fact, each of the last five meetings between USC and Stanford have been decided by 8 points or less, including three by a field goal or fewer. I expect USC to be slightly better than last year, but not enough to warrant this 9.5-point spread. I fully expect this game to go right down to the wire as well.

Plays on road underdogs (STANFORD) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Stanford Saturday.

20* CFB Letdown GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +8

The Toledo Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off the biggest win in all of college football last week, beating Arkansas 16-12 on the road despite being 23-point underdogs in that game.  After such a huge win over an elite SEC opponent, the Rockets won't even show up today against Iowa State.

The Cyclones are a much-improved team this season that will likely pull off the upset here, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.  They returned 13 starters this season, but after going 2-10 last year, the betting public wants nothing to do with this team in the early going.  The offense and defense are both vastly improved, and that has shown the first two weeks.

Iowa State's offense has a senior QB in Sam Richardson and one of the most underrated receiving corps in the Big 12.  They have a very good passing game that will pick apart this Toledo defense.  They also have their best defensive line since Paul Rhoads came to Iowa State seven years ago.  That D-line will be key in shutting down Toledo.

Iowa State opened the season with a 31-7 win over a ranked FCS opponent in Northern Iowa as a 13-point favorite.  Then, it held a 17-10 lead at home over Iowa last week, but gave up 21 unanswered points down the stretch to lose 31-17.  Iowa tacked on a garbage TD late that made this final score appear to be a blowout when it really wasn't.  But the perception that it was a blowout works in our favor here because we're now Iowa State is catching too many points.

Toledo never should have beaten Arkansas in the first place.  Toledo was actually outgained 318-515 for the game, or by nearly 200 total yards.  So, Toledo's win looks impressive, when in reality if Arkansas outgains Toledo by 200 yards it should win by 14-plus points every time.  This game was really a blowout in Arkansas' favor, but it did not show up in the final score.  The Razorbacks continually shot themselves in the foot.  But because it was an upset win for Toledo, that works out in our favor here, too.

These teams played last year with Iowa State winning 37-30 at home as 3.5-point favorites.  Remember, this was a 2-10 Iowa State team last year, too.  The Cyclones outgained the Rockets 454-325 for the game.  Sam Richardson had one of his best games of the season with 37 completions, 351 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.  He is primed for another big game against this Toledo defense, which gave up 30.8 points per game last year and 412 passing yards to Arkansas last week.  It's also worth noting that the three meetings between Toledo and ISU since 2006 have all been decided by 7 points or less and by a combined 10 points.

Toledo is 0-6 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. MAC opponents.  Take this combined 10-0 system backing the Cyclones straight to the bank.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on California -6.5

California is the biggest sleeper to win the Pac-12 this season.  The Golden Bears improved from 1-11 in Sonny Dykes' first season to 5-7 last year, and four of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less to Arizona (45-49), UCLA (34-36), USC (30-38) and BYU (35-42), which were all bowl teams last year.

Dykes returned 17 starters and a whopping 58 lettermen this season.  In fact, this is the most veteran team in the Pac-12 this year with all 22 of their starters either juniors or seniors.  I can't stress enough that it's time to back this team early in the season before all of the value is gone, including this week.

Cal has been very impressive in its first two contests, which is no surprise.  Cal beat Grambling 73-14 in the opener and outgained them by 359 total yards.  Then it beat San Diego State 35-7 as 12.5-point home favorites and outgained the Aztecs by 160 total yards.

Cal has had an elite offense over the last two years and it's even better this season, but it's the defense that now makes this team a threat to win the Pac-12.  After being dreadful the past two seasons, the Golden Bears have held their first two opponents to an average 10.5 points per game, 311 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  All the talk out of camp was how improved this D was going to be, and that certainly appears to be the case.

Speaking of dreadful, that's a great word to describe the state of Texas' football program.  After going 6-7 last year that ended in a 31-7 loss to Arkansas where the Longhorns were held to just 59 yards of total offense, many expected this team to be improved.  But they only had 12 returning starters and were projected to start a bunch of freshmen.

The start the Longhorns are off to clearly shows that they are in trouble.  They lost 38-3 to Notre Dame in the opener and were outgained by a ridiculous 364 total yards as their offense managed just 163 and their defense gave up 527.  Yes, they did beat Rice 42-28 last week at home, but a quick look at the box score shows that the Longhorns were actually outplayed in that game.

Indeed, Texas was outgained by 185 total yards by Rice.  They managed to score 42 points despite just 277 yards of total offense, which is nearly impossible.  That's because they benefited from an 85-yard punt return TD and a 26-yard fumble recovery for a TD.  Their defense gave up 462 total yards to the Owls.

So, this young defense is giving up an average of 33.0 points and 494 yards per game through two games.  It's safe to say that Cal is going to do whatever it wants to offensively as this will be the best offense that Texas has faced yet.  Plus, Texas is only averaging 220.0 yards per game offensively.  It's offense is still in shambles and will be able to do nothing against this improved Cal defense.

Texas is 0-8 ATS after a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the past three seasons.  It is losing in this spot by an average of 14.9 points per game.  The Golden Bears are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.  The Longhorns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Golden Bears.  Bet California Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +16.5

I believe this line is an overreaction from South Carolina’s 22-26 upset home loss to Kentucky last week. That’s a better Kentucky team than it gets credit for, and the Gamecocks still should have won the game. They outgained the Wildcats by 18 yards and racked up 417 total yards in the loss. They rushed for 195 yards as a team and 5.7 per carry.

Now that loss to Kentucky has created some serious line value to come back and support the Gamecocks this week. South Carolina clearly has Georgia’s number, going 4-1 straight up in the last five meetings, and 5-1 against the spread in the last six.   In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find the last time Georgia beat South Carolina by more than this 16.5-point margin, and even that was only an 18-point win.

Georgia has only beaten South Carolina by more than 11 points once in the last 11 meetings.  Georgia has only beaten South Carolina by more than 16 points twice in the last 19 meetings.  This series history alone shows that there's value with the Gamecocks.

South Carolina only went 7-6 last season, but four of those losses came by 7 points or less, and it beat Georgia 38-35. The Gamecocks outgained the Bulldogs 447-408 for the game. They have actually outgained the Bulldogs in five of the last seven meetings. Steve Spurrier simply owns Mark Richt in this series. Georgia may have its revenge this year, but asking it to win by 17-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

Georgia did take care of Louisiana-Monroe 51-14 in the opener, but that game was probably closer than the final score as the Bulldogs outgained the Warhawks by 184 total yards. I’m certain that Georgia’s 31-14 win at Vanderbilt was closer than the final score because the Bulldogs only outgained the Commodores by 23 total yards.

Vanderbilt had plenty of success against this overrated Georgia defense with 400 yards of total offense. Johnny McCray threw for 295 yards and a touchdown in the game, but his three interceptions cost the Commodores a chance to win. I believe Georgia has one of the worst QB situations in the SEC. Greyson Lambert only went 11 of 21 for 116 yards against the Commodores. They are a one-dimensional running team, making them easier to stop.

South Carolina also had starting QB Connor Mitch knocked out early against Kentucky, which threw the Gamecocks off.  Backup Perry Orth came in and played well, though, completing 13 of 20 passes for 179 yards with one touchdown and one interception.  Orth is a junior who has been with the program for three years.  Having an entire week to prepare to be a starting QB will benefit Orth, and I expect him to surprise some folks this week.  But because they have a backup QB starting, this line is higher than it should be.

Georgia is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 home games off a road win. The Bulldogs are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 home games off a win over a conference rival. The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Gamecocks are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +30.5

This is another situation where I'm fading a team off a huge win and expect a letdown.  Oklahoma erased a 17-3 deficit in the 4th quarter at Tennessee last week and won in double-overtime, 31-24.  The Sooners celebrated afterwards like they won the National Championship.  They will not be focused on beating Tulsa this week, and they'll come in overconfident and struggle to put the Golden Hurricane away.

Tulsa clearly isn't a team to be taken lightly, either.  It managed to nab former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who has led the record-setting offenses at Baylor over the past seven years.  He was tasked with turning around a Tulsa program that had gone 5-19 over the past two seasons after going 11-3 in 2012.  Montgomery stepped into a good situation with 16 starters and 57 lettermen back this season.

Montgomery and company are off to a tremendous start to a turnaround.  The Golden Hurricane have opened 2-0 with a 47-44 overtime win against Florida Atlantic and a 40-21 road win over New Mexico.  That was the same FAU team that gave the Miami Hurricanes a scare last week before eventually giving way in the second half, so that win looks more impressive today than it did in Week 1.

The win over New Mexico was even more impressive because it was on the road, and the Lobos are a team on the rise with 14 starters back.  The Golden Hurricane absolutely dominated in all areas of that 40-21 win.  They racked up 600 yards of total offense for a second straight week.  Their defense made big improvements in limiting the Lobos to 390 total yards, so they outgained them by 210 yards for the game.

It's really amazing what Mongtomery is doing here with this offense in his first season.  He did have 10 starters back on offense, but he has implemented his Baylor principles and has turned this unit into a juggernaut.  The Golden Hurricane are averaging 43.5 points, 609.0 yards per game and 7.0 per play.  It's a balanced attack that is averaging 236 yards per game on the ground and 372 through the air.

Senior QB Dane Evans is completing 58.7 percent of his passes for 745 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions.  He has two stud receivers in Keyarris Garrett (12 receptions, 265 yards) and Keevan Lucas (14, 258, 3 TD) back from last year.  The running game is vastly improved, too, behind Zack Langer (228 yards, 4 TD) and D'Angelo Brewer (225 yards, 1 TD).

Again, this is a tough spot for Oklahoma.  It is coming off that huge road win over Tennessee, and now it has its Big 12 opener on deck against West Virginia.  I have been impressed with the Sooners thus far, but after going 2-0 ATS through their first two games, they are clearly overvalued here.  Tulsa will be able to score enough points to keep this one interesting for four quarters and it will never get to a 31-point game or more in Oklahoma's favor.  The Golden Hurricane are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Tulsa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Air Force +25.5

The Michigan State Spartans are in a massive letdown spot this week.  They just beat Oregon 31-28 at home last week to avenge their loss to the Ducks last season.  I expect them to lack the kind of focus it will take to put away a pesky Air Force team by more than this 25.5-point spread.  There is a lot of value here with the Falcons because of it.

This is an Air Force team that went 10-3 last season with wins over the likes of Boise State, Colorado State and Western Michigan.  That's the same Western Michigan team that gave the Spartans all they wanted in the 2015 opener, only losing 24-37 as 16.5-point home underdogs.

Air Force appears to be strong again in 2015 as its off to a 2-0 start with blowout victories over Morgan State (63-7) and San Jose State (37-16).  That win over SJSU was extremely impressive because they were just 4-point favorites, and SJSU returned 16 starters this season and is going to prove to be one of the most improved teams in the country.

Air Force outgained SJSU by 162 total yards in the win.  This rushing attack by the Falcons is strong again after averaging 273 yards per game on the ground last season.  They have averaged 411 rushing yards per game and 6.2 per carry through their first two contests, and this is an offense that returned seven starters from last year so it was going to be strong again anyway.

Michigan State isn't used to facing the triple-option, and head coach Mark Dantonio is worried about it.  "They present a lot of problems in terms of discipline, who has who on the option, things of that nature," Dantonio said. "I think it's a tough draw because it's something we've not experienced. We've played option football before but not to this level."

Again, Michigan State is not going to be focuses this week after beating Oregon.  These players will just think they can show up to win this game.  And you have to be disciplined defensively to face the triple-option because there are so many responsibilities that each defender must focus on.  The Spartans gave up 24 points and 383 yards to WMU and 28 points and 432 yards to Oregon, so they aren't exactly off to the greatest start defensively.

Plays on road underdogs (AIR FORCE) - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in non-conference games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Falcons are once again undervalued in 2015, and that will be evident as they give the Spartans more of a test than they were expecting coming in.  Take Air Force Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +21.5

The Connecticut Huskies came into the 2015 season way undervalued due to having gone 2-10 in Bob Diaco's first season last year.  Diaco stepped into a tough situation, but it's not taking him long to turn things around in Storrs.  He has already matched his win total from last year with a 2-0 start.  He had 14 starters and 52 lettermen back this year.

The Huskies beat a highly-ranked FCS team in Villanova 20-15 in their opener and were 6.5-point underdogs in that game, which just shows you the respect the oddsmakers have for Villanova, and the lack of respect for UConn.  Last week, UConn beat Army 22-17 as 6.5-point favorites in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

UConn actually outgained Army 415-265 for the game and should have won by more.  But since they didn't, but believe this spread against Missouri is way bigger than it otherwise would have been.  The value is clearly with the Huskies as over 3-touchdown underdogs in this one in a game I believe they could actually pull the upset.

Missouri is one of the most overrated teams in the country coming into the 2015 season due to winning back-to-back SEC East titles.  It's an absolute miracle that the Tigers have accomplished that feat, because they really haven't been that good.  That was especially the case last year as they only outgained all opponents on the season by an average of 21 yards per game despite going 11-3.

The Tigers returned just 12 starters this season and won't be nearly as fortunate as they were last year.  They were already fortunate last week to escape with a 27-20 win at Arkansas State.  The Tigers only managed 288 total yards against Arkansas State, which was the same team that gave up 55 points and 509 total yards to USC the previous week.

To cover a big spread like this one, you need to have a high-powered offense.  Missouri does not have that.  It only averaged 367 yards per game last year, and it has an awful QB in Maty Mauk, who completed just 53.4 percent of his passes last season.  Mauk was awful against Arkansas State, completing just 16 of 36 passes for 148 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  Again, this was an Arkansas State defense that was one of the worst in the country.

Now Mauk will be up against a UConn defense that is clearly underrated.  The Huskies gave up a respectable 379 yards per game last season and were solid on that side of the ball.  They returned eight starters on defense this season and are a lot better.  The Huskies have only given up 16.0 points and 284 yards per game against their first two opponents.

NC State transfer Bryant Shirreffs has made what was a weak offense for UConn last year a respectable one in 2015.  He is completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 472 yards with two touchdowns against one interception through two starts.  I look for the Huskies to put up enough points to cover this massive spread, but to also hold Missouri to less than 30 points, which will make it an easy cover.  Bet UConn Saturday.

20* FSU/Boston College ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State -7.5

I believe Florida State is better than it gets credit for this season. The Seminoles are now 31-1 in their last 32 games overall, yet they're only the No. 9 ranked team in the country. They have been one of the best four teams in the country each of the past two seasons as well, and I’m not so sure they aren’t one of the four best in 2015. This is a very generous price to get the Seminoles at.

Florida State lost Jameis Winston, which is a big reason why it isn’t getting much respect in the early going. But Winston had an awful season last year to follow up his Heisman Trophy in 2013, throwing 25 touchdowns passes and 18 interceptions. It’s already apparent to me that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted the wrong guy with the No. 1 overall pick after watching Marcus Mariota outplay Winston in Week 1 NFL, and it wasn’t even close.

A 49-point win over Texas State and a 20-point win over South Florida aren’t hugely impressive, but it’s certainly worth noting that the Seminoles have played the tougher schedule than the Boston College Eagles have thus far, and that USF is a better team than it gets credit for.

Everett Golson is already playing better than Winston did last year, completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 465 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was also huge for the Seminoles to get Dalvin Cook back from suspension to start the year. All Cook has done is rush for 422 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per carry.

Boston College’s blowout wins over Maine (24-3) and Howard (76-0) are being overblown here.  It was a 26-point favorite over Maine and a 44-point favorite over Howard, which are two I-AA teams. This is an Eagles team that is in rebuilding mode in 2015 and one that will be outclassed. The Eagles only returned 10 starters this season and lost their best player in QB Tyler Murphy from last year. I do think they have a good defense, but only putting up 24 points against Maine shows that their offense has a lot of work to do.

I also believe this line is smaller than it should be due to Boston College playing Florida State tough the past two years. FSU won 48-34 as 23.5-point road favorites in 2013 when it went on to win the national championship. FSU was a 17-point home favorite against Boston College last year, but needed a field goal in the closing seconds to win 20-17. So essentially FSU is going from being an average favorite of 20 points per game the last two years against BC down to a 7.5-point favorite this year. That alone shows that there is value in the Seminoles.

The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Seminoles are 5-0 straight up in their last five meetings with Boston College with three of the last four wins coming by 14 points or more.  Bet Florida State Friday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Kansas City -3

The Kansas City Chiefs will be highly motivated to put an end to their 6-game losing streak to the Denver Broncos in this series. They know that if they want to win the division, it’s going to come down to beating the Broncos. I believe they now have the pieces to do so, and I agree with this line moving from a pick ’em all the way to Chiefs -3.

Kansas City was very impressive in its Week 1 win against Houston. It jumped out to a 27-9 lead by halftime and held on for a 27-20 win in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Alex Smith went 22 of 33 passing for 243 yards with three touchdowns in the win. He found tight end Travis Kelce six times for 106 yards and two scores. New No. 1 receiver Jeremy Maclin had a solid debut with five grabs for 52 yards.

The Chiefs certainly have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. They got back linebacker Derrick Johnson and safety Eric Berry after each missed most of last season due to injury. They were already one of the best defenses in the NFL last year, and now they’ll be even stronger in 2015. The Texans couldn’t do much on offense all game until the fourth quarter, when it was already decided.

Denver’s offense was atrocious against Baltimore in the opener. The Broncos did not score one offensive touchdown, and it’s clear that Peyton Manning is on the decline after a horrible finish to last season. Manning went 24-of-40 passing for 175 yards with an interception, which was returned for a touchdown. They only managed 69 rushing yards on 25 carries as well.

Baltimore has a good defense, but it is not as good as the one Kansas City fields this season.  Manning has been held to fewer than 200 passing yards three times in his last six games overall.  The five-time NFL MVP hasn't engineered a touchdown in 21 drives counting the preseason.  This isn't just a fluke folks, Manning is no longer the quarterback he once was.

The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win. The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Kansas City is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. AFC opponents. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four September games.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

15* Clemson/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +6

The Louisville Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for their first victory of the season Thursday night. They still have their entire ACC schedule ahead of them, so it shouldn’t be hard to shake off a couple losses to Auburn and Houston that have come by a combined 10 points. I still believe this is one of the best teams in the ACC.

Louisville actually outgained Auburn by 78 total yards in its 24-31 loss in the opener. Houston is obviously a better team than it gets credit for, though that 31-34 loss by the Cardinals as 13.5-point home favorites is concerning. That’s a Houston team that returned all of its key weapons on offense for first-year head coach Tom Herman, who was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State last year during the championship run.

Clemson is getting too much love from oddsmakers in this one due to back-to-back blowout victories. Well, it was favored by 34 over Wofford and by 18.5 over Appalachian State, so it was supposed to roll in both those games. I believe a lack of competition for the Tigers will really come back to hurt them here, while the tough slate the Cardinals have faced already has them battle-tested and ready for this big showdown.

Yes, Clemson did beat Appalachian State 41-10, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. Clemson only outgained Appalachian State 392-298 for the game, or by 94 total yards. It simply took advantage of four Mountaineer turnovers, even returning an interception for a touchdown.

Clemson did not fare well on the road last year at all.  It went 2-3 in road games with losses to Georgia (by 24), Florida State (by 6, FSU was playing backup QB) and Georgia Tech (by 22).  It's only road wins last year came against Boston College (by 4) and Wake Forest (by 14 as 21-point favorites).

Louisville will also be motivated for revenge from a 23-17 road loss to Clemson last season. It was an 8.5-point underdog in that game and arguably outplayed the Tigers despite losing. The Cardinals outgained the Tigers by 35 total yards in the game. Their defense held Clemson to just 229 yards of total offense.  In fact, the Tigers scored two non-offensive touchdowns with one punt return and one fumble return, so they pretty much did nothing offensively.  They aren't going to be so fortunate with those non-offensive touchdowns again.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 48-15 (76.2%) ATS since 1992. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games. The Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. Louisville is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 conference games.  Take Louisville Thursday.

20* Vikings/49ers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -2

I’m big on the Minnesota Vikings this season and believe they’ll be one of the most improved teams in the NFL. Mike Zimmer did a fine job in all aspects in his first season last year in turning this into a competitive football team. It was a young team last year, but now it’s loaded with young veterans and a plethora of talent to give the Packers a run for their money in the NFC North.

Zimmer was the architect of many strong Cincinnati defenses over the past few years. Well, it took him just one season to make drastic improvements in Minnesota. He took a defense that gave up 30 points per game in 2013 to an 8.6-point improvement and only 21.4 points per game in 2014. The Vikings finished a very respectable 14th in total defense. This stop unit is only going to be better in 2015 with some key additions in the draft (CB Trae Waynes, LB Eric Kendricks) and in free agency (CB Terrence Newman).

But the real reason to be excited about this team is getting Adrian Peterson back for a full season. He missed all but one game last year, yet the Vikings still went 7-9. Teddy Bridgewater took over the starting QB role midseason and managed to lead the Vikings to a 5-4 finish in his final nine games. Again, that’s impressive when you consider Peterson was not around for it.

Bridgewater finished the season with 2,919 passing yards while completing 64.4 percent of his passes and averaging 7.3 yards per attempt. He also rushed for 209 yards and a score. Now offensive coordinator Norv Turner has provided Bridgewater with the deep threat he was missing last year. Mike Wallace comes over from Miami after scoring 10 touchdowns for the Dolphins last year. He’ll be paired with Charles Johnson, who was one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league. A healthy Kyle Rudolph at tight end now gives this offense almost zero weaknesses.

The 49ers are an absolute mess. It has been well documented this offseason, but it’s the truth. The loss of a winning head coach like Jim Harbaugh is devastating enough, but the personnel losses are even bigger. Gone are Frank Gore, Mike Iupati, Patrick Willis, Michael Crabtree, Chris Borland, Perrish Cox and Aldon Smith. One of their key free-agent acquisitions was Darnell Dockett, but he was released prior to the season due to poor performance.

San Francisco will still have a respectable defense despite all of these losses on that side of the ball, but the offense is the main issue. Colin Kaepernick should have never been given a big contract. He has no accuracy in the passing game, and he did not look comfortable in the preseason. He took too many sacks behind a poor offensive line. The receiving corps is too slow, and with Gore gone, the running game is a question mark even with the emergence of Carlos Hyde. There just isn’t must to like about this San Francisco offense that managed a mere 19.1 points per game last year.

Simply put, these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Vikings are certainly a team on the rise that had Super Bowl aspirations as soon as this year, while the 49ers are in full-blown rebuilding mode. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 over the past two seasons. This basically shows that when they’re up against an elite defensive team like Minnesota, they don’t have the offense to perform well.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants are going to come into the 2015 season highly motivated after failing to make the playoffs five of the past six years. I like the direction that the front office has gone in rebuilding the offensive and defensive lines in recent years to get stronger up front. I believe that is going to start to pay off this year.

The Giants couldn’t have had any worse luck than they did last year. They were ravaged by injuries worse than any other team in the NFL. With a little better luck in the health department this year, the Giants are good enough to get back into NFC East title contention.

New York’s offense made huge strides last season in the second year of Bob McAdoo’s system. They ranked 10th in total offense and 7th in passing offense. Eli Manning had one of his best seasons ever, throwing for 4,410 yards and 30 touchdowns while setting a career high with a 63.1 completion percentage. This offense really hit its stride once Odell Beckham Jr. took over.

The Giants scored 28, 24, 36, 24, 37 and 26 points over their final six games for an average of 29.2 points per game. Beckham had 60 receptions for 842 yards and nine touchdowns over that six-game stretch. He may be the best receiver in the NFL already. Now they added Shane Vereen for another weapon out of the backfield. Vereen had 52 receptions in New England last year.

The defense must improve after giving up 25.0 points per game last season. So they brought in coordinator Steve Spaguolo, who was here in 2007 and 2008 and was the architect of the stop unit that beat the Patriots in Super Bowl 42. They added Alabama safety Landon Collins in the second round, and he’ll start right away. Middle linebacker Jon Beason is finally healthy after missing 40 games over the past four seasons.

When corners Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara were on the field at the same time, they played very well together last year. But Amukamara missed half the season with a torn bicep. Getting him back healthy will be a huge boost to this defense because he’s already one of the better corners in the league.

The Cowboys come into the season overvalued off their surprising 12-4 season last year that came out of nowhere. That is being reflected in this line right off the start with the Cowboys as 6-point favorites. Their offense won’t be as good without DeMarco Murray, and their defense only ranked 19th last year and still lacks talent.

Dallas has three starters out on defense for the opener as well. Defensive end Greg Hardy and linebacker Rolando McClain will both miss the first four games due to suspension. Their best corner in Orlando Scandrick suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp. Brandon Carr has not lived up to the massive contract he signed in the offseason, and former first-round pick Morris Claiborne has been a bust up to this point. They did use a first-round pick on UConn corner Byron Jones, but he’s not going to be a star from Day 1. The Giants are simply in much better shape at the CB positions, and that’s key because this is going to be a very pass-heavy game.

Finally, the Giants are going to be highly motivated to put an end to a 4-game losing streak to the Cowboys. Three of those four losses came by 5 points or less, and four of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 5 points or fewer. That fact alone shows you that there is value in backing the Giants as 6-point dogs here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Bengals/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oakland +3

I was very impressed with what I saw out of the Oakland Raiders in the preseason. Their defense was dominant, especially in a Week 3 game against the Arizona Cardinals where they were all over Carson Palmer throughout the first half.  The Cardinals could do nothing offensively against this defense.

The Raiders are clearly a team on the rise as they have gotten rid of their salary cap issues that have hurt them in the past, and now they are stocked with young, cheap talent in most areas.  I look for the Raiders to really surprise some teams this year behind the improvement of Derek Carr in his second season.

They added some very solid players this offseason, spending their cap money wisely on center Rodney Hudson, MLB Curtis Lofton, DE Dan Williams and WR Michael Crabtree, among others.  They also drafted the top wideout in Amari Cooper with their first pick, and he and Crabtree will be far and away better receivers than what Carr had to work with last year.  The Raiders have really emphasized strong offensive and defensive lines in their rebuilding project, too, and should be much stronger at the point of attack now.

While the Raiders won three of their final six games last year and should build off of that, this play is more about how down I am on Cincinnati than anything.  The Bengals went 10-5-1 last year despite getting outgained by an average of 11.3 yards per game on the season.  That is almost impossible to do.  They ranked 15th in total offense and 22nd in total defense.

The slip the defense made last year was very noticeable.  They lost defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer last offseason as he became the head coach of the Vikings.  This once-dominant defense under Zimmer now became soft.  Plus, this if a very old defense that isn't going to be any better this year.  The Bengals did almost nothing to address their needs on defense, only adding guys like Michael Johnson and A.J. Hawk, who are no more than replacement-level starters in this league.  They used their first three picks of the draft on offense, which was a mistake.

The defense had a league-low 20 sacks last year and won't be able to get pressure on Carr and the improved offensive line in Oakland.  Andy Dalton is not a very good quarterback, and his weapons outside of A.J. Green are sub-par to say the least.  The Bengals do have a strong offensive line and running game, but I look for the Raiders to load the box to stop it.

The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings between these teams.  The Raiders have won four of the past six meetings overall.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings as well.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +3

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team to look out for in 2015.  They enter Year 3 under Gus Bradley and have stockpiled a bunch of young talent while rebuilding over the last two years.  Now that young talent is going to pay off in 2015 with a much more competitive team.

Blake Bortles got comfortable with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in his rookie season last year while getting his feet wet.  By all indications, Bortles looks like the franchise QB that the Jaguars were hoping for.  Look for him to take a gigantic leap in Year 2.  There is a lot of positive vibes coming out of the locker room with this team as several members have stated that they are going to surprise some people this year, and I agree.

Bradley is a very good defensive mind who now has the right pieces in place to fit his system.  The Jaguars improved by leaps and bounds defensively last season, especially when it came to getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  They finished 6th in the league in sacks.  The return of their leader on defense in Paul Posluszny from injury will make them much stronger against the run this season.  He missed nine games last year with a torn chest.

While I do think the Jaguars will be improved, the biggest reason for this play is that I think Carolina is going to be absolutely horrid this season.  The Panthers won the NFC South last year with a 7-8-1 record, and they did so after opening the season 3-8-1.  So they simply finished strong the last four weeks of the season while everyone else in this pathetic division faltered.

The Panthers did little to improve their team this offseason and lost more than they gained.  The offense is in really bad shape as Cam Newton has the worst group of receivers in the league after Kelvin Benjamin suffered a torn ACL in the preseason.  Benjamin had 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie last year and is a massive loss.

That leaves Ted Ginn Jr. who has just 83 catches while starting five games for three different teams over the past five season, and Corey Brown as the starters.  Brown had 21 receptions as an undrafted rookie last season.  It's clear to me that Jacksonville is going to be able to load the box and stop the running game, because the Panthers aren't threats in the passing game at all this year.

Yes, Carolina has a solid defense, but this stop unit is overrated in my book because of the attention that Luke Keuchly gets.  Even with him, the Panthers still allowed 23.4 points per game last season.  That's not the kind of number that would go with 'elite defense' like many like to peg the Panthers as being.  They still have holes in a lot of places, especially in the secondary where the Jaguars should be able to take advantage.

Jacksonville is going to come out with something to prove in the opener.  I look for Bortles and company to have a big day through the air against a poor Carolina secondary.  I also look for their defense to shut down the one-dimensional Panthers do to their lack of weapons outside.  Jacksonville is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 Week 1 games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets -3

These are two very similar teams who have strong defenses and questions on offense.  The thing is I believe the Jets to have the better defense and much fewer questions on offense.  I look for the Jets to roll the Browns at home in the season opener for both teams Sunday.

Head coach Todd Bowles worked magic as the defensive coordinator in Arizona the past couple years.  He got the most out of the talent on hand, which was less talent than what he'll have to work with in New York.  The Jets could legitimately have the league's best defense this season.

They ranked 6th in the NFL in total defense last year.  Now they have added former Jets Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, giving them arguably the best CB tandem in the NFL.  They already had a strong front seven with their only weaknesses in the secondary.  Now this defense no longer has any weaknesses.

I think the Jets will actually be better offensively this season than most give them credit for.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a steadying hand at QB, and it was actually a blessing in disguise that Geno Smith suffered a broken jaw in training camp, because he's not nearly as good as Fitzpatrick.  I like the weapons at his disposal as well with the addition of Brandon Marshall to go along with Eric Decker.  The rushing attack should be strong with Chris Ivory leading the way behind a solid offensive line.  Ivory rushed for 820 yards on only 198 carries last year.

The Jets should find plenty of success on the ground in this one against a Cleveland defense that ranked 23rd overall and 31st against the run.  They also ranked just 27th in sacks (31) last season.  The Browns do have a very strong secondary, but even with Joe Haden, it's not as good as the secondary the Jets have to offer this season.

The biggest reason for this pick is that I do not think the Browns will be able to do anything offensively.  They still have arguably the worst QB situation in the NFL with Josh McCown starting.  He was terrible in Tampa Bay last year and he even had two stud receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.  Now, McCown will be throwing to guys like Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins.  If the Panthers don't have the worst receivers in the NFL, than the Browns certainly do.  They are also unsettled at running back.

The Jets are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Browns, most recently winning 24-13 at home as 2.5-point favorites in 2013.  I foresee a similar outcome in this meeting.  The Browns are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 1.  The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. AFC opponents.  New York could surprise some people this year.  Take the Jets Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins -3

The Miami Dolphins are a team on the rise.  After back-to-back 8-8 seasons, they are ready to break through and make the playoffs in 2015.  They have all the pieces in place to give the New England Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East this year.

The Dolphins put up their best offensive yardage ranking (14th) since 2008 and their best points ranking (11th) since 2001, which are the last two years the Dolphins made the playoffs.  Ryan Tannehill is one of the most underrated young starters in the game, and now he enters the second year of Bill Lazor's offense.  This is going to be one of the best offenses in the league as Tannehill has a plethora of weapons around him with the additions of Jordan Cameron, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills to go along with Jarvis Landry.

The defense is another reason to be excited about the Dolphins.  They finished 12th in the league in total defense last year and will be dominant this season.  That's because they have added the top free agent on the marked in Ndamukong Suh.  He was the catalyst behind Detroit's top-ranked defense last season.  This will be one of the most dominant defensive lines in the league as Suh joins Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.

Washington is a mess right now off a 4-12 season.  Robert Griffin III has essentially been shown the door, and the turnover-prone Kirk Cousins is taking his place.  The offensive line can't protect him as the trio of Griffin III, Cousins and Colt McCoy were sacked 58 times last year.  This offensive line hasn't gotten much better in the offseason, so look for Suh and company to be in Cousin's hip pocket all day long.

The Redskins won't be much better defensively, either.  They ranked 30th in scoring defense last year at 27.4 points per game allowed.  They did make some nice moves this offseason in adding guys like Terrance Knighton, but they have a long way to go before being among the better defenses in the NFL.  This is still one of the league's worst stop units.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - good offense from last season - averaged 335 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Washington is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 September home games.  Take the Dolphins Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +6.5

These are two teams headed in opposite directions in 2015.  The San Jose State Spartans are clearly a team on the rise that is undervalued, while the Air Force Falcons are primed to decline and are overvalued right now.  That creates the perfect storm to back an SJSU team that I fully expect to win outright Saturday.

San Jose State has had some very poor luck in Ron Carragher's first two seasons.  The Spartans did go 6-6 in 2013, but were not selected to a bowl game.  They slipped to 3-9 last year despite finishing with the third-best yardage differential (+82.8 yards/game) of all Mountain West teams.  They outgained all opponents by 42 yards per game on the season.  But they were -12 in turnovers and had poor offensive (20.4) and defensive (12.1) yards per point.

With 16 returning starters this season, the Carragher has by far his best team yet.  That was evident in the opener as San Jose State crushed New Hampshire 43-13.  Sure, New Hampshire is an FCS team, but it entered the 2015 season as the No. 7 FCS team in the country.  What did Vegas think of New Hampshire?  Well, SJSU was only a 6-point favorite, yet it won by 30 points.

Believe it or not, that 30-point win actually should have been bigger.  The Spartans outgained New Hampshire 707-186, or by 521 total yards.  That's right, the Spartans racked up 707 yards of total offense.  This was an offense that brought back a whopping 10 returning starters from last year, so it was going to be good, but nobody expected it to be this good.  Before long the secret will be out and there won't be as much value in backing SJSU, but for right now, this team is completely flying under the radar.

Air Force was the most improved team in the country last year, going from 2-10 in 2013 to 10-3 in 2014.  But the Falcons had 16 starters back last season after having just 10 back the year before, so they were bounce-back candidates.  They certainly weren't as good as their 10-3 record would indicate, though.  They were actually outgained by 20.1 yards per game in Mountain West play in spite of their 5-3 record.

Now the Falcons return just 11 starters this season. They lose QB Kale Pearson, who had a 14-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season and actually gave the Falcons a threat of a passing game, which is something they rarely have running the triple-option.  They only have four starters back on defense from a unit that had nine starters back last year and gave up 395 yards per game.  This is going to be one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West.  To compare, SJSU only gave up 357 yards per game last season

Air Force also beat an FCS opponent in Morgan State 63-7 last week.  But Morgan State is one of the worst FCS teams in the country as the Falcons were 32.5-point favorites in that game.  The Falcons also used a special teams touchdown and a defensive TD to pad the score.  I'm not saying the Falcons won't be decent again, but I really believe the Spartans are the better team in this one.

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is 2-9 ATS in a home game when the total is 56.5 to 63 as the coach of Air Force.  His teams rarely have the firepower to keep up in shootouts, which is what this game is expected to be.  San Jose State is 25-12 ATS in its last 37 games after scoring 37 or more points in its previous game.  The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Air Force is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 conference games.  Take San Jose State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Western Michigan -4.5

I am very high on the Western Michigan Broncos this season and believe they are the best team in the MAC.  Head coach PJ Fleck went just 1-11 in his first season in Kalamazoo, but then guided the Broncos to one of the best turnarounds in the country with an 8-5 record in 2014.

The blew a 21-10 halftime lead to Northern Illinois, otherwise they would have gone on to win the MAC Championship.  They are even stronger in 2015 with 16 returning starters.  This is easily the most talented team in the MAC.  They return QB Zach Terrell, who completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 3,443 yards with a 26-to-10 TD/INT ratio.

Leading rusher Jarvion Franklin (1,551 yards, 24 TD) and all of the top receivers are back, including Corey Davis (78 receptions, 1,408 yards, 15 TD) and Daniel Braverman (86, 997, 6 TD).  The defense is going to be even better this year with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 24.9 points per game last year.

I was very impressed with WMU in the opener.  It only lost 24-37 at home to Michigan State, which is considered a national title contender.  It was only outgained by 69 total yards against the Spartans.  The defense limited senior QB Connor Cook to 15-of-31 passing, and they held their own against the run.  Terrell went wild on a very good Spartans' defense, completing 33-of-50 passes for 365 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  That effort proved to me that my lofty expectations for this team are warranted.

Georgia Southern caught everyone by surprise last year en route to a 9-3 season that included a perfect 8-0 record in the Sun Belt and a conference championship.  It won't have that luxury again now that teams have game tape on them to go off of after last season was their first as a member of the FBS.

The Eagles do have a respectable 13 returning starters back, but their most important returning starter is suspender.  QB Kevin Ellison, who was the leader of this team last year and their most important player, has been suspended for the first two games of the season.  Ellison threw for 1,001 yards and five touchdowns against three interceptions last year, but rushed for 1,096 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per game.

This offense clearly missed Ellison in the opener.  Georgia Southern was destroyed 44-0 at West Virginia as 16-point underdogs.  The Eagles were outgained 544-224 for the game, or by 320 total yards.  Backup QB Favian Upshaw went just 2-of-13 passing for 29 yards with a whopping four interceptions in the loss.  It's clear to me after that performance that Georgia Southern is nothing without Ellison, and that's it's defense is not going to be able to hold up against this high-powered WMU offense.

Plays against any team (GA SOUTHERN) - poor passing team from last season - averaged 150 or less passing yards/game, with 8 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on of 3.5 to 10 points (W MICHIGAN) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS since 1992.  The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  WMU is 9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Western Michigan Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK Eastern Michigan +13.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with Eastern Michigan off three straight 2-10 seasons.  That's understandable, but this team is going to make some real progress in the second year under Chris Creighton in 2015.  He welcomes back 13 starters this season, and after the Eagles went just 2-10 ATS last year, they are going to be showing a lot of value this season early and often.

That was the case against Old Dominion in the opener as the Eagles were 6.5-point underdogs and covered the spread, losing by a final of 34-38.  That was a solid Old Dominion team that had gone 6-6 the previous season with impressive wins over Louisiana Tech and Rice.  The Eagles arguably should have beaten the Monarchs, too.

They outgained Old Dominion 444-413 for the game, but only lost due to a -3 turnover differential.  They also had QB Reginald Ball get hurt after they were tied going into the 4th quarter.  Ball is questionable to return this week, but head Creighton is optimistic, and even if Ball cannot go then he is very confident in backup Brogan Roback.

“Brogan (Roback) is prepared and he’s taken nearly as many reps all of fall camp as Reggie has,” Creighton said of his sophomore backup. “We have two quality quarterbacks.”  Bell went 12-of-18 passing for 117 yards and two touchdowns with an interception, while Roback was 10-of-17 for 71 yards with in interception while filling in for him.

While I do believe the Eagles are vastly improved this season, the biggest reason for this play is that I do not believe Wyoming should be getting this much love from oddsmakers.  The Cowboys went just 4-8 in Craig Bohl's first season last year despite having 16 returning starters.  Now they have only nine returning starters in 2015 and are pretty much rebuilding, while Eastern Michigan is past that rebuilding phase.

Wyoming showed its rebuilding ways in its 13-24 home loss to FCS foe North Dakota despite being 18-point favorites in the opener.  It was dominated in all phases of the game, which is a bad sign when you consider North Dakota isn't even among the top 30 FCS teams in the country.  North Dakota outgained Wyoming 429-330 for the game, or by 99 total yards.  The Cowboys could only managed 2.2 yards per rush with 41 yards on 19 carries.  Conversely, they gave up 276 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry to North Dakota.

Just like Eastern Michigan, Wyoming QB Cameron Coffman is questionable to play and will likely be a game-time decision.  That's big because Coffman threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns against North Dakota in a losing effort.  Coffman is a former Indiana transfer who actually finished second in passing yards per game in the Big Ten back in 2012.  Even if by chance Coffman plays and Ball does not, I still like EMU to cover this spread with ease.

Plays against favorites (WYOMING) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against a home team (WYOMING) - off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season are 44-11 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Wyoming is 0-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in its last game over the last three seasons.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +13

I actually have UMass picked to win the MAC East division this season, that's how highly I think of them despite going 5-31 over the past three seasons.  Head coach Mark Whipple was here from '98-'03 and took over a 2-9 team and led them to the IAA National Championship in his first season.

Whipple inherited a 1-11 team last year and took the Minutemen to 3-9, but this had to be one of the best 9-loss teams in the country.  The Minutemen had 5 losses by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 3 to both Colorado and Vanderbilt, by 5 to Bowling Green after leading in the 4th quarter, blew a 41-14 lead against Miami to lose by 1, and gave up a touchdown with 34 seconds left to lose to Toledo by 7.

Now the Minutemen return 19 starters and will be under the radar from the get-go.  That includes QB Blake Frohnapfel, maybe the most underrated QB in the entire country.  How important is Frohnapfel to this team?  Well, the Minutemen have outgained MAC opponents by 108 yards per game with him, and they've been outgained by 197 yards per game without him.

Frohnapfel threw for 3,345 yards and 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions over the team's first 10 starts last year.  The offense is going to be explosive again after averaging 421 yards per game last season with 10 starters back.  But look for huge improvements on defense with nine starters back from a unit that gave up 448 yards per game last season with only five starts back.  The Minutemen have a very nice set of LB's and DB's in particular.

I really thought Colorado had a chance to make some progress this year, but it's clear after a 28-20 loss at Hawaii in the opener that the Buffaloes are still hurting.  They turned the ball over three times and QB Sefo Liufau went just 23-of-40 passing for 158 yards with an interception.  That is not a very good Hawaii team, and one that has lost at least nine games each of the past three seasons.

UMass gave Colorado a run for its money last year.  It only lost 38-41 at home as 17.5-point underdogs.  Frohnapfel threw for 267 yards and three touchdowns with one pick in the loss.  I believe the Minutemen will be hungry for revenge in the rematch exactly one year later.  This spread has simply been set way too high due to the 19 starters the Minutemen have returning from that 3-point defeat to the Buffaloes.

The Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six September games.  UMass is 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game.  Colorado has just 10 wins over the past four seasons and enters this contest on a 9-game losing streak.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Connecticut -7

The UConn Huskies are a team that is flying under the radar entering 2015.  They went just 2-10 in head coach Bob Diaco's first season last year.  But they had just 12 returning starters, and now that number jumps to 14 with 52 lettermen returning and only 13 letter winners lost.  I fully expect the Huskies to be improved in the second season under Diaco.

They are off to a promising start.  Despite facing an FCS opponent in Villanova, the Huskies were actually 7-point underdogs in their opener.  Well, when you consider Villanova is the No. 2 ranked FCS team in the country, it's easy to see why.  That's why the Huskies' 20-15 win over Villanova wasn't your usual blah FCS win.

Connecticut is going to have a very good defense this season, just as it did last year when it gave up a respectable 379 yards per game.  But now eight starters are back on this side of the ball, and this will be the backbone of the team.  The Huskies played well defensively, giving up just 303 total yards to Villanova in the opener.  It help them to 3.2 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per pass.

UConn is going to be much better offensively this season behind sophomore Bryant Shirreffs, a former NC State transfer.  He's off to a great start by completing 12 of 20 passes for 202 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against Villanova.  He threw a 27-yard TD pass to Akeel Newsome with 4:53 remaining to put the game out of reach.  The Huskies led 20-9 at that point before a touchdown in garbage time by Villanova with 1:54 left.

Army is coming off a 4-8 season last year despite having 14 returning starters.  It now has just 10 returning starters in 2015, while losing each of its top three rushers on offense, including QB Angle Santiago.  The defense gave up 32.9 points and 431 yards per game last season and has just five starters back and will be awful again.

That was evident in Army's 35-37 home loss to Fordham last week.  Fordham is another FCS opponent, but it was only ranked No. 21 in the FCS rankings and nowhere near as good as Villanova.  The Black Knights were expected to roll as 13.5-point favorites, but it simply did not happen.  They were actually outgained by 56 yards in the game and gave up 445 yards to Fordham.  I believe that effort will be a sign of things to come for Army in 2015, especially this week given the situation.

UConn will be motivated for revenge in this one.  It lost to Army 21-35 last year on the road, but now it gets the Black Knights at home in the rematch.  That was far from the 14-point game that it appeared to be as the Huskies were only outgained 353-365 for the game.  UConn was actually going in for the game-tying score when Army intercepted a pass and returned it 99 yards for a TD with only 28 seconds remaining.

Army is 0-10 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.  UConn is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games off an upset win as an underdog.  The Black Knights are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games overall.  Take UConn Saturday.

20* Utah State/Utah ESPN 2 Rivalry Play on Utah -11.5

The Utah Utes are coming off their best season since joining the Pac-12.  They went 9-4 last year and finished with a winning record within the Pac-12 for the first time.  Sure, they were fortunate to win a lot of close games, but this is a team that can compete in the stacked South division.

With 14 starters and 61 lettermen back, this is Kyle Whittingham's best team that he has had at Utah yet.  I liked what I saw from the Utes in their opener against Michigan as they led 24-10 before giving up a garbage touchdown with only 54 seconds to play for a 24-17 victory.  That was a Michigan team that will prove to be vastly improved this year as the season goes on, and when we look back, I believe that win over the Wolverines will be even more impressive than it is today.

I certainly was not impressed with Utah State in its opener.  It only beat Southern Utah 12-9 despite being 31-point favorites.  It actually needed an 88-yard punt return for a touchdown with 4:54 left to play to overcome a 9-5 deficit.  I believe that performance is a sign of things to come for this team not only Friday, but as the season progresses.

The Aggies only managed 250 total yards on Southern Utah.  Chuckie Keeton clearly isn't what he used to be as injuries have really taken their toll on him throughout his career.  Keeton went just 16-of-33 passing for 110 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for only seven yards on six carries.

Utah State is missing some key players in this one.  Starting WR Brandon Swindall is questionable with a hamstring injury, and starting LG Tyshon Mosley is expected to miss this game due to suspension.  But the biggest loss is WR Hunter Sharp, who was by far their best receiver last year.  He had 66 receptions for 939 yards and seven touchdowns last season, and he has been suspended for this game.  Utah checks in very healthy.

Keep in mind that Utah beat a very good Mountain West team in Colorado State 45-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl last year.  That's a Colorado State team that went 10-3 and was certainly better than Utah State.  I would even argue that the Rams were nearly as good as Boise State last year, and the Utes beat them by 35.

Utah is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Utah State.  Eight of its last nine wins in the series have come by 16 points or more.  The Utes are 38-17-2 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games, including 8-0 ATS in non-conference games over the past three seasons.  The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last four September games.  Bet Utah Friday.

20* Steelers/Patriots 2015 NFL Season Opener on Pittsburgh +7

There’s no doubt that Tom Brady is worth a few points. But four? That seems a little high to me. New England was only a 3-point favorite over Pittsburgh when it was assumed that Brady would be serving a four-game suspension to start the season. But now that Brady won his appeal and will play, oddsmakers have moved this line to New England -7. The value is now with the Steelers in this one in my opinion.

I always look to fade teams off a Super Bowl victory early in the season. They tend to not come back as motivated the following year, and their training camp is much more laid back than most other teams. When you’re on top of the world, it’s even harder to get back there because of overconfidence and always having a target on your back each week.

While New England will no doubt be good again this year, remember, it started just 2-2 last season as well. I don’t expect the Patriots to be firing on all cylinders right out of the gate, especially with all of the distractions from ‘Deflategate’. They haven’t had many game reps with Tom Brady in the preseason, and the ones they had weren’t very productive.

In his first two games of the preseason, four of his five drives were three-and-outs, while completing just 3-of-9 passes. He was even worse against the Panthers, throwing a pair of interceptions in Game 3. With Brady under center, they didn’t score a touchdown until his 12th possession of the preseason. Of course, it is just the preseason, but I really do expect this offense to be a little bit out of sync to open the year.

There’s no doubt the Steelers have concerns of their own offensively. Running back Le’Veon Bell will miss the first two games due to suspension, WR Martavis Bryant will miss the first four games due to suspension, and center Maurkice Pouncey won’t be able to return from an ankle injury until at least Week 12.

While concerning, this is still a Pittsburgh offense that ranked second in the NFL at 411.1 yards per game last season. I still expect it to find plenty of success against this New England defense. The Patriots certainly got worse on this side of the ball in the offseason by parting ways with CB Darrelle Revis, CB Brandon Browner, CB Kyle Arrington and DT Vince Wilfork. I would rate their secondary below-average now, and I expect Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown to have big games.

The Steelers will be energized defensively as they have gotten younger this offseason, letting go of Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Jason Worilds. They have been using early draft picks on defense each of the past few seasons, and first-round pick Bud Dupree should be a factor from the start. They also get back a healthy Ryan Shazier at linebacker this year, who was a first-round pick last season. In fact, the Steelers could be starting four former first-round picks at linebacker this season. This youthful defense is the wild card, but I believe they start making progress this year after a couple of down years in a row defensively.

Pittsburgh is grabbing the headlines because of its injuries and suspensions, but New England has some sneaky important injuries and suspensions of its own.  Starting running back LeGarrette Blount is out due to suspension.  No. 2 receiver Brandon LaFell is out with a foot injury.  Starting center Bryan Stork is doubtful with a concussion, so the Patriots are also without their center, just like the Steelers are.  No. 1 receiver Julian Edelmen is expected to play, though he's nursing an ankle injury.  I just don't believe the Patriots will have the firepower offensively out of the gate to win this game by more than a touchdown to beat us.  Bet the Steelers Thursday.

15* LA Tech/WKU Conference USA ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech -1.5

Louisiana Tech was easily the second-best team in Conference USA last season.  It won the West division and went on to face Marshall in the Championship Game, losing that contest by a final of 23-26 as 7-point underdogs.  That was a Marshall team that went 13-1 last year and rarely played any close games.

Now the Bulldogs return 13 starters this season and are clearly a threat to win Conference USA again.  They do lose QB Cody Sokol, but they brought in former No. 1 QB recruit in the country in Jeff Driskel, a Florida transfer.  This is Driskel's senior season and his last chance to shine, so he's going to be committed to this team.  Plus, it doesn't hurt that he's going from facing very tough SEC competition to Conference USA competition, which is like night and day.

It also doesn't hurt that Driskel has all of his top playmakers back from last year.  Leading rusher Kenneth Dixon (1,299 yards, 22 TD) and each of his top three receivers in Trent Taylor (64 receptions, 834 yards, 9 TD), Carlos Henderson (29, 569, 4 TD) and Paul Turner (42, 514, 4 TD) are also back.  The Bulldogs return six starters and each of their top two tacklers on defense from a unit that gave up a respectable 24.7 PPG last year as well.

Driskel and company put on a show in their 62-15 rout of Southern in the opener.  They led 52-8 at halftime before calling off the dogs.  That was plenty of time for Driskel to complete 12-of-15 passes for 274 yards and four touchdowns.  It was also enough time for Kenneth Dixon to rack up 171 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on only 11 touches.  It's safe to say that this offense is going to be explosive again.

Western Kentucky does have 16 starters back from last year and is among the favorites to win Conference USA as well.  But I just do not trust this team, especially defensively, where they gave up 39.9 points and 510 yards per game last season.  Plus, the Hilltoppers were not impressive at all in their opener against the worst team from the SEC in Vanderbilt.

Sure, they won the game 14-12 as 2-point favorites, but the box score indicates that the Hilltoppers were dominated.  They simply benefited from three costly Vanderbilt turnovers.  They were outgained 246-393, or by 147 total yards.  Their running game produced only 37 yards on 23 carries for an average of 1.6 per carry.  Brandon Doughty was held to 209 passing yards and one touchdown, which are terrible numbers for him.  The Commodores, not known for their offense, racked up 393 yards on this soft defense.  I just believe it's a sign of things to come for the Hilltoppers in this game.

Plus, Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky 59-10 last year in a game that was every bit the 49-point blowout that the final score would indicate.  The Bulldogs outgained the Hilltoppers 517-297 for the game.  They held Doughty to 14-of-35 passing for 134 yards and one touchdown with four interceptions.  Sokol threw for 335 yards and five touchdowns in the win.  It's clear that Holtz and company have the antidote for this WKU offense. 

Can the Hilltoppers improve by 49 points from one season to the next? It's highly unlikely.  LA Tech is 9-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last two seasons.  WKU is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced three or more turnovers over the last three years.  The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Take Louisiana Tech Thursday.

20* Ohio State/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +14

While I don’t expect the Buckeyes to overlook the Hokies again, I do believe Virginia Tech is fully capable of pulling off another upset. I am very high on the Hokies heading into 2015 because they return 16 starters and this will be one of Frank Beamer’s best teams yet. I predicted that they’d win the Coastal Division and make the ACC Championship Game this year coming into the season.

This is a Virginia Tech team that has won at least 10 games in eight straight seasons prior to failing to win more than eight each of the last three years. Beamer enters his 29th season in Blacksburg and desperately wants to get back to the top of the ACC, which has been a familiar spot for this program up until recently. With 58 lettermen back as well, this team has the depth and talent to do so.

The offense held the Hokies back last year, but it should be vastly improved in 2015 with eight starters back. Quarterback Michael Brewer is now a senior who will be more efficient in Year 2 of the system. He went 23-of-36 for 199 yards against the Buckeyes last season and will be able to lean on that performance to put together another solid one in the rematch. Each of the top three receivers from last year were freshmen, and all three are now sophomores and will have much better chemistry with Brewer.

But the reason Virginia Tech has a chance to pull the upset is its defense. It allowed 20.2 points and 344 yards per game last season and will be even stronger in 2015. That’s because eight starters return on this side of the ball. The entire defensive line returns intact and will be one of the best in the country. The secondary gave up just 199 yards per game and 47.7 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks last season, and now three starters are back, including future NFL star Kendall Fuller at corner.

Ohio State simply enters the 2015 season overvalued due to winning the National Championship. It will have a hard time living up to expectations now, and I believe if you went against the Buckeyes ATS in every game this season, you would come out on top. Some of the spreads they have set for their games are ridiculous, including this one. While there’s no denying that the Buckeyes have the easiest path to get to the four-team playoff because they play in the Big Ten, they just aren’t going to be as dominant as most think.

The Buckeyes will be missing some key players in this game. Defensive end Joey Bosa, H-Back Jalin Marshall, WR Corey Smith and H-Back Dontre Wilson are all suspended. Bosa is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft, so his loss is huge. Marshall (30 receptions, 499 yards, 6 TD), Wilson (21, 300, 3 TD) and Smith (20, 255) are three of the team’s top four returning receivers as well. These losses are huge and will put the Buckeyes at a big disadvantage in the opener. Keep in mind that Beamer is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Virginia Tech.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

15* Purdue/Marshall Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Purdue +7.5

This is the year that Purdue makes a big leap forward.  Darrell Hazell enters his 3rd season with the Boilermakers, and he's squarely on the hot seat after going 1-11 in his first season and 3-9 last year.  But all signs are pointing up for this team heading into 2015.

The Boilermakers actually made big improvements last year despite only improving by two wins.  They were outscored by 23.1 points per game in 2013, but just 7.9 points per game last year, making 15.2-point improvement.  Another big jump can be expected this year with a whopping 15 starters and 50 lettermen back and only 17 letter winners lost.  Coaches usually make their biggest jump in Year 3, and it will be no different for Hazell.

The offense improved by roughly 8 points and 62 yards per game from 2013 last year.  Another step forward should be taken with eight starters back on this side of the ball.  They return leading receiver Danny Anthrop, who had 616 receiving yards and four touchdowns despite missing the final three games last year.

The defense improved by 7.3 points and 44 yards per game from 2013 to 2014.  Again, another step forward can be expected with seven starters and four of their top five tacklers back.  There was concern about some injuries at linebacker, but all three returning starters at LB are expected to be ready to go against Marshall.

The Thundering Herd enter the 2015 season overvalued because of how well they did last season.  They went 13-1 last season, but the only relevant team they faced all year was Western Kentucky, and they lost that game.  Marshall's schedule was so easy that it was actually favored in every game and by double-digits 12 times.

After having 14 starters back last year, the Thundering Herd only have 11 starters returning in 2015.  They lose the school's all-time leading passer in Rakeem Cato (14,079 yards), which is the program's biggest loss since Randy Moss left for the NFL.  They also lose leading receiver Tommy Shulder (92 receptions, 1,138 yards, 9 TD), who had 55 more receptions than second place on the team.

The offense is sure to take a huge step back with those two losses, and the defense only have five starters back.  They lose their top two tacklers who each registered more than 100 tacklers last year.  They only have two returning starters among the front seven, so they are going to be much weaker up front defensively.

The value is clearly with the Big Ten team over the team from Conference USA in this one.  Most of the time, the Big Ten team would be favored in this situation.  But since Purdue only won four games the past two years combined, and Marshall won 13 games last year alone, the betting public is quick to jump on the Thundering Herd.  But these are two teams headed opposite directions entering 2015 folks.  The Boilermakers are on the rise, while the Thundering Herd are in rebuilding mode.  Bet Purdue Sunday.

20* Wisconsin/Alabama ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -12

This one is pretty easy for me. The Alabama Crimson Tide are the supremely talented team, but I believe the questions surrounding the quarterback position have kept this line lower than it should be. When is the last time Alabama didn’t have good quarterback play? Not since Nick Saban has been here, and I’m sure whoever they go with will be more than good enough to lead them to a blowout win over the Badgers.

The questions for the Crimson Tide are on offense with just three returning starters and the loss of Amari Cooper, but the talent on this side of the ball is second to none. This is an offense that put up 36.9 points and 485 yards per game last season in the first year under coordinator Lane Kiffin. They will be explosive again with the new starters ready to step in and pick up where they left off.

But what really excites me about this Alabama team is the defense. It only gave up 18.4 points and 328 yards per game last year despite having only five starters back. Now, the Crimson Tide will have one of their best defenses of the Saban era with seven starters returning. Five of seven starters are back up front and will be prepared to stop Wisconsin’s rushing attack. The Crimson Tide only gave up 102 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry last season.

This is a match-up tailor made for the Crimson Tide. The only offenses they have struggled with through the years are ones that spread you out and pass it all over the field. Wisconsin doesn’t have that ability. It has one of the worst quarterback situations in the country. Senior Joel Stave completed just 53.4 percent of his passes for 1,350 yards with a 9-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio last year. He is back as the starter, and the Crimson Tide aren’t going to have to worry about the Badgers' passing game one bit with Stave at the helm.

Yes, the Badgers always have an explosive running game and a great offensive line. That should be the case again even though they lose Melvin Gordon and three starters along the offensive line. I don’t expect them to be as dominant on the ground as they were last year with the losses, but they will be good. But Alabama stops the run as well as almost anyone, so again, it’s just a perfect match-up for the Crimson Tide.

I do believe Wisconsin will have a solid defense this year after giving up just 20.8 points and 294 yards per game last season. It will be tough to match those numbers with only six starters back and the losses of three of their top five tacklers, but this will be a good unit. I do not expect them to hold Alabama to less than 30 points, though, and getting to 30 points will be more than enough for the Crimson Tide to cover this 10.5-point spread. Their defense isn’t going to allow more than 14 points.

Wisconsin may be overvalued here due to beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl last year.  But that was an Auburn team that was disappointed to be playing in a lesser bowl after making the National Championship Game the year before.  A better indication of what type of team the Badgers were was in their 59-0 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  Alabama lost to Ohio State as well, but led 21-6 early and only lost 35-42 in the four-team playoff.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Alabama) who won 80% or more of their games last season, in non-conference games between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Alabama is simply on another level than Wisconsin with the way it has recruited over the last several years with the top classes in the country.  Wisconsin has talent, but it is adjusting to new systems under first-year head coach Paul Chryst.  Playing a team of Alabama's caliber is not a good way to break in new systems.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

25* CFB Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M -3

I am very high on the Texas A&M Aggies this season and believe they are primed for a run at the SEC West title. They come into this season undervalued because they have gone from 11, to 9 to 8 wins in Sumlin’s first three seasons. But last year was expected to be a down year because they lost Johnny Manziel, Mike Evans and a plethora of talent.

After having just 11 returning starters each of the last two seasons, the Aggies are now a more veteran bunch as they return 16 starters in 2015. They were forced to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now those players are a year older and ready to take that next step. After all, Sumlin continues to come away with one elite recruiting class after another. It’s going to pay off sooner rather than later.

The Aggies played a freshman QB in Kyle Allen last year, and two of their top four receivers were freshmen as well. All three return and this is going to be one of the best receiving corps in the country. The Aggies still managed 35.2 points and 455 yards per game last year despite their youth, and now they should have no problem returning to close to the 44 points per game they averaged when Manziel was running the show.

But what really has me excited about this team is the defense. The Aggies managed to lure former LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis to oversee the play-calling duties. He steps into a great situation with eight returning starters on defense. This will be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 28.1 points and 451 yards per game last year. Their best players was a freshman in Myles Garrett, who recorded 11.5 sacks and will be an even bigger beast as a sophomore.  He even played injured down the stretch last year, and teammates think so much of him that they have named him a captain.

I am certainly not down on the Arizona State Sun Devils this season with 16 returning starters as well, but I do believe they were very fortunate to win 10 games last year. They benefited from a +14 turnover differential, and despite going 6-3 in Pac-12 play, they were actually outgained by 15 yards per game against conference opponents last season.

I don’t expect their offense to be as good with the loss of QB Taylor Kelly and leading receiver Jaelen Strong (82 receptions, 1,165 yards, 10 TD). Their defense did not play all that well last season as they allowed 27.9 points and 417 yards per game. While they could be improved in that area, I don’t expect them to take as big of a leap forward as Texas A&M on this side of the ball. The Aggies have loads more talent defensively than the Sun Devils do when you look at the recruiting rankings.

Finally, Texas A&M will have a home-field advantage despite this game being played at a neutral site.  It's only about a 1.5-hour drive from College Station to Houston, which will be the site of this game.  Meanwhile, it's over 16 hours from Tempe, AZ to Houston.  It's safe to say that the Aggies will have a distinct advantage with the crowd.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Tennessee -21

I’m about as big on Tennessee this season as anyone. In fact, I have picked them to win the SEC East with a 10-2 record. The reason is pretty simple. Butch Jones has put together back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes, so the talent is going to deliver the goods with this team sooner rather than later.

We saw it at the end of last year. The Vols went 4-1 over their final five games once Josh Dobbs took over as their starting quarterback. They scored 45 or more points three times during that stretch, and finished it by averaging 33.0 points per game. Dobbs completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,206 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 469 yards and eight scores. His dual-threat ability really opened up this offense.

Now Dobbs is a junior and he’s among a loaded roster that returns 18 starters and some of the best talent in the entire SEC.  Jones was forced to play 23 true freshmen last season, and now those guys are all a year older.  With the way this team finished last season by making a bowl and blowing out Iowa in it, that's a definite positive sign of things to come.

The offense is only going to pick up where it left off last year with 10 returning starters.  After having no returning starters on the offensive line last year, the Vols now return four starters up front.  Each of their receivers who factored into the passing game last year are back, as is leading rusher Jalen Hurd (899 yards, 5 TD).

The defense will continue to build on the strides it made last year. The Vols only allowed 24.2 points per game last season with five starters back, and now they have eight starters back on defense and should come close to the 20 PPG range.  They are very excited about their defensive line, which returns sophomore DE Derek Barnett (72 tackles, 21.5 for loss, 10 sacks).  The linebacker corps returns senior SLB Curt Maggitt (11 sacks), giving the Vols two double-digit sack guys back from last year.

This is the perfect storm because I’m also down on Bowling Green. The Falcons won the MAC East title last year but took advantage of a very soft division. They wound up losing to Northern Illinois 51-17 in the MAC Title game, which is more indicative of the type of team this really was, rather than an eight-game winner.

The Falcons do return 10 starters on offense and should be fine there, but the defense is what concerns me. They gave up 33.5 points and 494 yards per game last season with only five starters back. Now they return five starters again and I don’t see the numbers improving. That’s because they lose each of their top four tacklers and arguably their best four players on this side of the football.

Bowling Green was overwhelmed in its two non-conference road games last season. It lost 31-59 at Western Kentucky and 17-68 at Wisconsin. I believe this 2015 Tennessee team is better than both of those squads, and it’s not really even close. I look for the Falcons to get blown out of the building in their first non-conference road game of 2015 as well.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -6.5

James Franklin had his work cut out for him in his first season at Penn State. He was coming off back-to-back improbable 9-4 campaigns at Vanderbilt, which is no small feat. He did have 12 returning starters to work with last year and reduced sanctions, but it was still a tall task to ask for him to win in his first season.  The Nittany Lions wound up finishing 7-6 after beating Boston College 31-30 in the Pinstripe Bowl. They took national champion Ohio State into double-overtime, which shows what they are capable of.

Things are looking up for Penn State entering 2015. It has 15 returning starters, went 2-6 in Big Ten play last year despite only getting outgained by 7.5 yards per game, and now it goes from having 64 scholarship players in 2014 to 83 in 2015. That will dramatically improve their depth at all positions.  It was amazing to see the Penn State faithful fill Beaver Stadium during the probation period over the last three years. Now, those fans should be rewarded with some solid football under Franklin going forward.

The offense is in line for massive improvement after averaging just 20.6 points per game last season.  QB Christian Hackenberg is among eight returning starters on offense.  While Hackenberg had a down season last year, most experts believe he will be the first QB taken in the 2016 NFL Draft. 

The reason he struggled so much was because of inexperience along the offensive line.  But after having just one O-line starter back last year, the Nittany Lions return four starters and add in two very highly touted linemen.  The skill positions are in good hands as well with leading rusher Akeel Lynch (678 yards, 4.6/carry, 4 TD) and each of their top two receivers back in DaeSean Hamilton (82 receptions, 899 yards, 2 TD) and Geno Lewis (55, 751, 2 TD).

Penn State had one of the best defenses in the nation last year.  It allowed just 18.6 points and 279 yards per game.  With seven starters and five of its top six tacklers back on defense, this is going to be one of the top stop units in the country again.

Temple should be improved this season, but not as much as Penn State.  The Owls went 6-6 last year and return 19 starters.  But they went 4-4 in American Athletic play despite getting outgained by 69.5 yards per game.  Their defense is going to be solid again with 10 starters back, but the offense just doesn't have that much talent.

The Owls only managed 23.1 points per game last season.  Quarterback PJ Walker is experienced with two years as a starter under his belt, but he regressed last year and was simply forced to do too much.  He won't have much luck against this Penn State defense, which again, is one of the best in the country.

Penn State is 31-0 in its last 31 meetings with Temple with its last loss coming in 1941.  It beat Temple 30-13 at home last year while outgaining the Owls 366-248 for the game.  The Nittany Lions rushed for 254 yards in a turnover fest that saw both QB's combine to throw six interceptions.  A similar result can be expected in the 2015 meeting with a 17-point road victory for the Nittany Lions just about right.

Franklin is 15-5 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The talent gap between these teams is just enormous, but the spread isn't reflecting that, providing us with some nice value by laying the small number on the Nittany Lions.  Take Penn State Saturday.

15* Baylor/SMU ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 74

Last year, these teams played to a 45-0 game that was 29 points less than Friday’s posted total of 74. I can see a similar result, or something in the 52-17 range in favor of Baylor, which would still be UNDER the total. I simply believe that both teams are going to be better defensively this year.

The reason for Baylor fans to be excited is because this is going to be Art Briles’ best defense yet. While the offense gets all the hype, it’s the defense that has made the most strides in recent years. The Bears gave up 23.5 points and 360 yards per game in 2013, and 25.5 points and 382 yards per game in 2014. Now they return nine starters on defense, and I expect them to put up their best numbers of the Briles era in 2015.

The Bears have the best defensive line in the Big 12 with all four starters returning, led by athletic freak Shawn Oakman at defensive end, who earned 1st-team All-Big 12 honors last year. The linebacker corps does lose two starters, but the entire secondary returns intact. A strong defensive line and a strong secondary gives SMU little chance of being successful here.

I don’t expect Baylor to be as potent offensively this year. Yes, it does return nine starters on offense as well, but it loses QB Bryce Petty to the NFL. I’m not sold on Seth Russell as being anywhere near the passer that Petty was. Russell only completed 56.5 percent of his passes last year and did not impress me at all in the limited action he received in place of an injury Petty.

Simply put, SMU was horrible in all phases last year. It was especially poor on offense, putting up 11.1 points and 269 yards per game. It averaged just 100 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. I do expect it to be better under the guidance of first-year head coach Chad Morris, who was the offensive coordinator at Clemson before coming here. But make no mistake, this SMU offense is still going to be one of the worst in the FBS.

One key factor here with backing the UNDER is that a blowout will lead to a very low-scoring second half. The same thing happened last year with Baylor jumping out to a 31-0 lead at half before calling off the dogs in the 45-0 win.  I expect Baylor to take its foot off the gas late in this game as well.

SMU will be lucky to score 10-14 points in this one against this superior Baylor defense. The Bears will simply run out the clock in the 4th quarter and get away from the up-tempo attack that will have gotten them a big lead. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan/Utah 2015 CFB Season Opener on Michigan +5

Brady Hoke did not get the most out the talent he had on hand at Michigan.  The Wolverines went from 11 wins in his first season, to 8, 7 and 5 the next three years, which is simply unacceptable in Ann Arbor.  That's why they brought in Jim Harbaugh, which was the biggest offseason hire at any program.

Harbaugh had success as a quarterback here, and he's won everywhere he's gone as a head coach.  He went 29-6 at San Diego, 29-21 at Stanford, and 49-22-1 as the head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers.  The guy is a proven winner who will get this program on the right track from Day 1.

Harbaugh steps into a great situation, too.  He inherits 15 returning starters and 50 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners.  Make no mistake about it, Harbaugh will get the most out of these talented players.

He has been known as an offensive guru, and he'll certainly improve an offense that put up just 20.9 points and 333 yards per game last year.  Eight starters are back on offense, and he adds in Iowa transfer Jake Rudock at QB, who started 25 games for the Hawkeyes over two seasons.  It's not been announced whether Rudock or Shane Morris will start for competitive advantage reasons, but my best guess is Rudock.

To Hoke's credit, he did coach up the defense very well as the Wolverines allowed 22 or fewer points and 322 or fewer yards per game in three of his four seasons.  This is a stop unit that returns seven starters after allowing just 311 yards per game last season.  This will once again be one of the top defenses in the country because of the returning experience and talent on hand.

Utah comes into the season way overvalued.  The Utes went 9-4 last season and finished with a winning record in Pac-12 play for the first time as a member of the conference.  But they were actually outgained by 84.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play despite their 5-4 record, which was the worst yardage differential in the entire conference.  All five of their Pac-12 wins came by 6 points or less as well.

Michigan is going to be highly motivated following a 10-26 home loss to the Utes last season.  It actually outgained Utah 308-286 for the game, but finished -3 in turnover differential.  It committed four turnovers in the game, which was its Achilles heel all season last year as it finished -16 in turnover differential.  Harbaugh will demand that his quarterbacks take better care of the football, and the defense is sure to create more turnovers this year.

The biggest advantage for the Wolverines is that they have a bunch of new systems in place.  They have a new offensive coordinator in Tim Drevno, a new defensive coordinator in D.J. Durkin, and a new special teams coordinator in John Baxter.  Utah coach Kyle Whittingham cannot use game film from last year to game plan for the Wolverines.  I love the element of surprise that Michigan will have coming into this one.  Plus, Michigan knows what Utah is going to do after playing the Utes last year.  Utah's systems have not changed.

"It's just a hodgepodge of five, six or seven places," Whittingham told The Detroit Free Press' Mark Snyder. "We form the best-guess scenario. And that's what an opener is anyway, a best-guess scenario, we never really know. Even when you [face] a returning staff, there's still changes that come in the offseason in different schematics. But when you have a new staff, anything really is in the realm of possibility. We think we have a general idea of what to expect. You try to expose your players to everything you think they might see in fall camp. Build a game plan to accommodate all the possibilities."

Whittingham is 6-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl XLIX ATS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle PK

Seattle (14-4) got off to a shaky 3-3 start this season. It kicked it into high gear thereafter, going 11-1 in its final 12 games to reach the Super Bowl. It has been really impressive down the stretch, going 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall with seven of those victories coming by double-digits.

The Seahawks have been an absolute cash cow at the pay window because of how they have been blowing out the opposition. They have won their last eight games by an average of 14.4 points per game. They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 17 points or fewer, including five of those to a touchdown or less. Four of the eight opponents didn’t even score a touchdown against Seattle.

As you may know, the Seahawks have the league’s top-ranked defense in scoring (16.3 points/game) and total (274.4 yards/game) defense. However, they also put up solid numbers on offense at 25.2 points and 375.4 yards per game. So, they are outgaining their opponents by an average of 101.0 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league.

Looking at statistics alone, there’s no question that the Seahawks are the superior team. The Patriots are only outgaining their opponents by an average of 29.0 yards per game. They are averaging 370.3 yards per game offensively and giving up 341.3 yards per game defensively. While both numbers are solid, they are nothing compared to what the Seahawks have done this year statistically, especially here of late.

New England has to be feeling a little guilty about its use of 11 deflated footballs in the AFC Championship Game. These Patriots players may already know that if they win the Super Bowl, it will be tainted to a degree. That’s a sick feeling coming into the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Seahawks must feel like they cannot lose after what they did to come back and beat Green Bay in the NFC Championship. From a mental perspective, the Seahawks have an edge there as well.

Speaking of that win over Green Bay, it was by far the worst game the Seahawks have played in quite some time, and they still found a way to win.  They committed five turnovers and tried to give the game away to the Packers, and they couldn't even take it.  There's no chance that the Seahawks are that sloppy with the football again in the Super Bowl. 

Look for Russell Wilson to learn from his mistakes, and for the Seahawks to not be so pass-happy in this game when they know they have a huge edge in running the football.  They rank 1st in the league in rushing (170 YPG, 5.2 YPC), and you'll see a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch and Wilson on the ground in this one.  Also, it's worth mentioning that Wilson is a perfect 10-0 in his career against opposing quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl.  He is a real gamer and doesn't get enough credit.

Seattle is 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games overall. New England is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 playoff games. The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. New England is 0-4 ATS in its last four Super Bowl appearances.  Take the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX Sunday.

Free Prop Bets (From Bovada): My Picks in BOLD

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD scored in the game?

Yes (+155)
No (-190)
Answer: No (-190)

Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game?

Yes (-115)
No (-115)
Answer: Yes (-115) - Note: Seattle and NE are a combined 18-2 when they win the coin toss, 10-6 when they don't this season.

Longest touchdown scored in the game?

Over 44.5 (-115)
Under 44.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 44.5 (-115)

Shortest successful field goal in the Game?

Over 25.5 (-115)
Under 25.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 25.5 (-115)

Which half will have more points scored?

1st half +1/2 (-115)
2nd half -1/2 (-115)
Answer: 1st half +1/2 (-115)

Largest lead of the game by either team?

Over 14 (-120)
Under 14 (-110)
Answer: Under 14 (-110)

Team to have the longest punt in the game?

New England (-115)
Seattle (-115)
Answer: Seattle (-115)

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards?

Over 260.5 (-130)
Under 260.5 (+100)
Answer: Under 260.5 (+100)

Brandon LaFell Total Receiving Yards?

Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 50.5 (-115)

Marshawn Lynch Total Rushing Yards?

Over 92.5 (-135)
Under 92.5 (+105)
Answer: Over 92.5 (-135)

Which coach will be shown first on TV after kickoff?

Pete Carroll (+100)
Bill Belichick (-140)
Answer: Belichick (-140)

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Patriots/Seahawks UNDER 47.5

With a full two weeks to prepare for one another, the advantage has to go to the defenses in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.  Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll are arguably the two best head coaches in the NFL today, and you can bet that they will leave no stone unturned.

These are also two of the best scoring defenses in the NFL.  The Patriots only give up 19.5 points per game this season, while the Seahawks are tops in the league in allowing just 16.3 points per game.  Both defenses get better as the game goes on, too.  The Seahawks and Patriots have allowed three second-half touchdowns in their past 16 games combined.

Seattle also ranks No. 1 in the league in total defense, giving up just 274.4 yards per game this season.  It has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of its last eight games overall, and 7 or fewer points in five of those.  The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.

The Seahawks know that they aren't going to win a shootout with the Patriots, so look for them to give Marshawn Lynch a heavy dose of carries in this game to try and move the chains and keep New England's offense off the field.  The Seahawks rank 1st in the league in rushing and will ride both Lynch and Wilson's legs offensively, which will eat up clock and aid the UNDER as well.

New England knows that if it wants any chance of beating Seattle, it is going to have to run the football.  That's because the Seahawks rank 1st in the league against the pass, giving up just 187 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Seahawks because the Patriots rely heavily on the pass to move the ball.  They did show some versatility in running it 40 times for 177 yards against the Colts in the AFC Championship.

This will be the 6th Super Bowl that the Patriots will have played in during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era.  Four of the five previously have been low-scoring despite New England coming in with one of the best offenses in the league in each.  They lost to the Giants 21-17 in the 2012 Super Bowl, lost to the Giants 17-14 in 2008, beat the Eagles 24-21 in 2005, beat the Panthers 32-29 in 2004, and beat the Rams 20-17 in 2002. 

As you can see, four of their last five Super Bowls have seen 45 or fewer combined points, and three of those with 38 or fewer.  In 2007, New England scored 36.8 points per game during the regular season, then 14 points in the Super Bowl. In 2011, New England scored 32.1 points per game during the regular season, then 17 points in the Super Bowl.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Patriots last five Super Bowls.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Seahawks last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bill Belichick is 25-11 to the UNDER In road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points per game in all games he has coached since 1992.  Belichick is 22-8 to the UNDER versus good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots & Seahawks.

Free Prop Bets (From Bovada): My Picks in BOLD

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD scored in the game?

Yes (+155)
No (-190)
Answer: No (-190)

Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game?

Yes (-115)
No (-115)
Answer: Yes (-115) - Note: Seattle and NE are a combined 18-2 when they win the coin toss, 10-6 when they don't this season.

Longest touchdown scored in the game?

Over 44.5 (-115)
Under 44.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 44.5 (-115)

Shortest successful field goal in the Game?

Over 25.5 (-115)
Under 25.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 25.5 (-115)

Which half will have more points scored?

1st half +1/2 (-115)
2nd half -1/2 (-115)
Answer: 1st half +1/2 (-115)

Largest lead of the game by either team?

Over 14 (-120)
Under 14 (-110)
Answer: Under 14 (-110)

Team to have the longest punt in the game?

New England (-115)
Seattle (-115)
Answer: Seattle (-115)

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards?

Over 260.5 (-130)
Under 260.5 (+100)
Answer: Under 260.5 (+100)

Brandon LaFell Total Receiving Yards?

Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-115)
Answer: Under 50.5 (-115)

Marshawn Lynch Total Rushing Yards?

Over 92.5 (-135)
Under 92.5 (+105)
Answer: Over 92.5 (-135)

Which coach will be shown first on TV after kickoff?

Pete Carroll (+100)
Bill Belichick (-140)
Answer: Belichick (-140)

20* Colts/Pats AFC Championship No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7

There is going to be a lot made of the Patriots blowing out the Colts in their recent meetings leading up to this game.  They have won five straight meetings with the Colts, including their last three by 22, 21 and 35 points, respectively.  That includes a 42-20 road win over Indianapolis back on November 16th of this year.  Well, that was a 28-20 game with less than nine minutes remaining before the Patriots tacked on two late touchdowns to pull away.

These aren't the same Colts that have been pushovers against the Patriots in years' past.  They were very fortunate to make the playoffs the previous two years under Andrew Luck as they simply were fortunate in close games to overcome their lack of dominant statistics.  However, now they have the statistics to match their brilliant 13-5 record this year, and there's no denying that they belong in the AFC Championship.

Indeed, Indianapolis ranked 3rd in the league in yardage differential this season.  It outgained teams by an average of 63.9 yards per game this year.  Only the Seahawks and Broncos were better.  The Patriots, on the other hand, haven't been near as dominant as their 13-4 record would suggest.  They rank just 10th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game.

New England has shown the last three weeks that is is extremely vulnerable.  It has gone 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  It only won 17-16 at the New York Jets as 9.5-point favorites in Week 16.  It lost at home to Buffalo 9-17 despite being 4.5-point favorites in Week 17.  Then, last week, the Patriots needed to erase two 14-point deficits to come from behind to beat the Ravens 35-31 as 7-point home favorites.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, comes into this game playing its best football of the season.  It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  It won 27-10 at Tennessee in Week 17 as 7-point favorites in a game where it could have rested its starters, but elected not to to try and gain some momentum coming into the playoffs.  That has proven to be a great move by head coach Chuck Pagano.

The Colts have been mighty impressive in their two playoff games.  They beat the Bengals 26-10 at home as 3.5-points favorites, outgaining them 482-254 for the game, or by 228 total yards.  Then, last week, they went into Denver and came away with a 24-13 victory as 9.5-point underdogs.  They outgained the Broncos 364-288 for the game, or by 76 total yards.

Indianapolis ranked 3rd in the league in total offense during the regular season, averaging 406.6 yards per game.  Andrew Luck is on the verge of becoming the best quarterback in the NFL.  He completed 61.7% of his passes for 4,761 yards with 40 touchdowns and 16 picks during the regular season.  Luck went 31 of 44 for 376 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, and then 27 of 43 for 265 yards with two touchdowns and two picks against the Broncos in the playoffs.

While Luck and the offense are the biggest reason the Colts are one of the best teams in the NFL, the improvement by the defense this season is a close second.  The Colts were a competent defense during the regular season, giving up just 342.7 yards per game to rank 11th in total defense.  They have been at their best here of late, giving up an average of 244.7 yards per game in their last three games overall. 

This stop unit is fully capable of slowing down the Patriots, who have only averaged 304.3 yards per game in their last three games.  What I really like about the Colts is their pass defense, which will be huge in this game against a Patriots team that only rushes for 102 yards per game but throws for 266.  Indianapolis has allowed a ridiculously-low 155.5 passing yards per game in its last six games overall.

Pagano is 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games as the coach of Indianapolis.  Bill Belichick is 2-9 ATS as a No. 1 seed in the playoffs as the coach of New England.  Belichick is 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in his last game as the coach of the Patriots.  New England is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 playoff games.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five Conference Championship Games.  Indianapolis is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC foes.  Take the Colts in the AFC Championship Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Seattle Seahawks continued their dominant play with a 31-17 win over the Carolina Panthers in the Divisional Round.  They have now gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven victories coming by double-digits, and by an average of 15.6 points per game.  They are the best team in the National Football League, period.  That shows up in the numbers as well.

The Seahawks ranked 1st in the league in yardage differential during the regular season.  They outgained teams by a whopping 108.7 yards per game.  Their offense was better than it got credit for, ranking 9th in the NFL at 375.8 yards per game.  Their defense was once again the best in the NFL, giving up league lows of 15.9 points and 267.1 yards per game.  In fact, they were the only defense to allow less than 300 yards per game this season.

We're looking at what might be the best defense in NFL history.  The Seahawks have given up a total of 56 points in their last seven games overall for an average of just 8.0 points per game.  They have held five of those seven opponents to 7 points or fewer.  They have the best secondary in the NFL as well, one that gives up just 185.6 passing yards per game.

That's going to be huge against the Green Bay Packers, who rely heavily on throwing the football to move it on offense.  Well, Aaron Rodgers is playing with a torn calf muscle, and he was clearly hobbled against the Cowboys last week.  He only practiced one day in two weeks leading up to that game, and he didn't run until pregame warm-ups. 

Rodgers not having his mobility gives the Packers no chance of defeating the Seahawks this week, or even hanging with them.  Seattle has a much better pass rush than Dallas did.  Rodgers did put up good numbers against the Cowboys, but the Cowboys were one of the most overrated defenses in the league this season.  Seattle is not overrated as it has no weaknesses.

Green Bay has just been a mediocre road team this year.  It is 9-0 at home, but just 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road where it is actually getting outscored by an average of 2.1 points per game.  All four of its road losses came by 8 points or more as well.  It lost at Seattle 16-36, at Detroit 7-19, at New Orleans 23-44, and at Buffalo 13-21.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Green Bay and Seattle in recent years.  In fact, the home team is 8-1 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  As stated before, Seattle won 36-16 at home over Green Bay in the season opener.  This was a complete mismatch as the Seahawks outgained the Packers 398-255 for the game, or by 133 total yards.  Rodgers went 23 of 33 passing for just 189 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss.

The Seahawks rushed for 207 yards in the win over the Packers and should have another big day on the ground in the rematch.  They rank 1st in the league in rushing by a wide margin, averaging 172.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season, which was 25.5 yards more than second place.  They also average a ridiculous 5.2 yards per carry against teams that only give up 4.2 per carry.

The Packers have allowed at least 108 rushing yards in 13 of their 17 games this season.  They ranked 23rd against the run during the regular season, and they surrendered 145 yards on the ground to the Cowboys last week.  They give up an average of 121 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season against teams that average 112 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  Marshawn Lynch is licking his chops at another opportunity to face the Packers Sunday.

Seattle is currently on a 25-2 streak in its last 27 home games.  The Seahawks have gone 8-1 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.1 points per game.  The 12th man is the real real, and Seattle knew how important it would be to get home-field advantage when it went on its huge run in winning 10 of its last 11 games overall.

I know it's a small factor, but it's also worth noting that the Seahawks have an extra day of rest heading into this game.  They played on Saturday against the Panthers, while the Packers played on Sunday against the Cowboys.  It's certainly an advantage for the Seahawks to get that extra day of rest, especially because they were able to watch the Packers play on Sunday to scout them an extra time.  Also, Rodgers getting one less day to heal is big as well.  He clearly won't be anywhere near 100% for this game.

Seattle is 13-2 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  Green Bay is 1-8 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, losing by an average of 12.6 points per game in this spot.  The Seahawks are 10-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons. 

The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS off five or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  Seattle is 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game Sunday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Championship Game No-Brainer on Ohio State +7

While Oregon may be the better team, I just cannot foresee it blowing out Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played their two best games of the year coming into this one as Urban Meyer has his team hitting on all cylinders. They proved that their 59-0 beat down of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship was no fluke. After outgaining the Badgers by 300 total yards, the Buckeyes really dominated the Crimson Tide in the first round of the four-team playoff.

Alabama did score a late touchdown to get within 42-35, but that was as close as it would get. Statistically, this was actually a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Buckeyes outgained the Crimson Tide 537-407 for the game, or by 130 total yards. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries in the win. He now has 450 rushing yards in his last two games and is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. Cardale Jones threw for 243 yards and a touchdown with one pick against Alabama as well.

Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone a perfect 9-0 straight up and 9-0 against the spread in its last nine games overall. While that is impressive, it has the betting public quick to back the Ducks again. I believe these teams are much more evenly matched than this 7-point spread would indicate. It should be closer to a pick ‘em in my eyes, which means there is value in backing the dog.

Yes, Oregon beat Florida State handily 59-20, but that game was far from the blowout that the score shows. The Ducks only outgained the Seminoles by 111 total yards in the win. That’s a good margin, but not one that would warrant a 39-point blowout. The Seminoles simply gave the game away in the second half by committing five turnovers with four lost fumbles and an interception.

Florida State racked up 528 total yards on this suspect Oregon defense. The Ducks can score at will, but they clearly have the worse defense in this one. They are allowing an average of 421.9 yards per game on the season. Ohio State only gives up 22.1 points and 333.4 yards per game against teams that average 28.3 points and 396 yards per game, so it has been pretty elite defensively. I look for the Buckeyes to be the team that comes up with the more stops in this one, which will lead to a cover and possibly an outright win.

Ohio State has been pretty solid against the run, allowing an average of 142 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 188 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Stopping the run will be key because both teams love to run it. Oregon averages 242 rushing yards per game, while Ohio State puts up 262 yards per game on the ground. Oregon gives up 156 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry against teams that average 162 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, so it has been just mediocre against the run.

I have really been impressed with Ohio State’s ability to stop the run here of late against some very good rushing teams. The Buckeyes have held Michigan, Wisconsin and Alabama to a combined 120.7 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They limited Melvin Gordon and the Badgers to just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries, Michigan to 121 yards on 38 carries, and Alabama to 170 yards on 34 carries.

Urban Meyer is 21-5 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Meyer is 15-4 ATS versus excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in all games he has coached. Ohio State is 31-11 ATS in its last 42 vs. excellent rushing teams that average at least 230 yards per game. The Buckeyes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-12 opponents. Ohio State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  For what it's worth, the Buckeyes are 8-0 all-time against the Ducks.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game Monday.

15* Cowboys/Packers NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas +6

This is arguably the most anticipated game of the playoffs this weekend. These are two of the most popular teams in the NFL, and the league is certainly better when both the Cowboys and Packers are good at the same time. Also, the Packers are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, while the Cowboys are 8-0 on the road, so something has to give.

Obviously, the Cowboys going 8-0 on the road is probably the most impressive feat of the entire season in the NFL. They have played their best football away from home this year. They handed Seattle its only home loss of the season back on October 12th when they won 30-23 as 9.5-point underdogs. They won’t be intimidated by having to go into Green Bay to get a win Sunday, that’s for sure.

The Packers did go 8-0 at home this season, but five of those wins came against teams with losing records, and the other three were against New England, Philadelphia and Detroit. Both the Lions and Patriots were able to keep their games close as the Patriots lost by 5, while the Lions lost by 10. I believe the Cowboys are fully capable of keeping this game close as well, which will allow them to cover the 6-point spread.

Yes, Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers and one of the best offenses in the NFL, but it is being overvalued due to Rodgers’ play at home. The real key to this game is going to be defense. The Packers have not been the best defensive team in the league this year, and they have struggled against the run for most of the season. Remember, they were knocked out of the playoffs by the 49ers each of the last two seasons as San Francisco ran wild on them.

I believe that could be the case again in this game. The Cowboys rank 2nd in the league in rushing at 147.1 yards per game and 4.6 per carry behind the superb play of DeMarco Murray and arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. A big reason why I took the Lions +7 last week was because they were elite against the run. They ranked No. 1 in the league in run defense at under 70 yards per game, so I expected them to slow down Murray, which is precisely what they did. They nearly pulled off the upset as a result.

Green Bay won’t be able to stop Murray. The Packers allowed 108 or more rushing yards in 12 of their 16 games this season. They rank 23rd in the league against the run, surrendering an average of 119.9 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. The Cowboys are going to be able to move the football at will on the ground, which will open things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Green Bay gives up 357.5 yards per game and 6.0 per play against teams that average 353 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

Dallas has been superb against the run and will make Green Bay one-dimensional. The Cowboys have allowed 90 or fewer yards rushing in six of their last eight games overall. They have allowed an average of 61.0 rushing yards per game in their last five games to boot. Stopping Eddie Lacy will be key for them because Rodgers isn’t nearly as effective when he has no running game to support him.

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Green Bay is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 7.0 or more yards per attempt. Dallas is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days of rest this season. The Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 6.0 or more yards per play in their previous game. Jason Garrett is 20-9 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Dallas, including 9-2 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

25* NFC Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +11

The Seattle Seahawks come into the playoffs overvalued due to going 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall. They now find themselves as double-digit favorites over the Carolina Panthers, which I simply believe is too much. I look for the Panthers to keep this game close from start to finish, just as they have in several recent meetings with the Seahawks.

Yes, it’s bad that a team with a losing record is allowed to make the playoffs. The Panthers even made it despite having a six-game losing streak at one point in the season. They looked lost for much of the year, but here of late, they have much more resembled the team that went 12-4 last year and earned a first-round bye.

Indeed, the Panthers have won five straight games coming in. That includes blowout road wins at New Orleans 41-10 and at Atlanta 34-3, which are no small feats. Even their 27-16 win over the Cardinals last week was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cardinals by 308 yards and held them to just 78 total yards for the entire game.

Carolina’s run of great play extends back even further. In fact, it has outgained each of its last seven opponents, including five of them by 105 or more total yards. The Panthers have outgained their last seven foes by a total of 977 total yards, or by an average of 139.6 yards per game. Now that’s domination that really shows this team is no pushover.

Cam Newton has returned healthy from injury and has helped the Panthers rush for at least 100 yards in 12 straight games. In fact, the Panthers have averaged 190.4 rushing yards per game in their last five games overall. Jonathan Stewart has spearheaded the rushing attack, averaging 104.8 yards per game himself over these five contests.

The improvement the Panthers have made defensively here of late has been the biggest difference, though. Carolina has allowed 17 or fewer points in five straight games while giving up an average of 11.8 points per game during this stretch. It has also given up just 233.5 yards per game in its last six games overall. These numbers are elite defensively, and they resemble the numbers this defense put up all of last season.

The teams that have given Seattle trouble are ones with a defense and a running game. Seattle is still good against the run, but its biggest strength is against the pass. Controlling the ball with the running game and stopping the Seahawks’ offense is something the Panthers have mastered in recent meetings with them.

The Seahawks have won four straight over the Panthers, but the last three have all gone right down to the wire in ugly, low-scoring defensive battles. The Seahawks won 16-12 in 2012, 12-7 in 2013, and 13-9 in 2014. As you can see, the Panthers held them to 16 or fewer points in all three meetings. I believe they can do that again with the way they are playing defensively, which means they only need a score or two to cover this massive 11-point spread.

Carolina is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 11-2 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Carolina is 11-3 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Panthers have allowed 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last eight games. Stopping Marshawn Lynch and the running game will be huge in this one, too.  Bet the Panthers Saturday.

15* Ravens/Patriots AFC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +7

While the Baltimore Ravens entered the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, I don’t believe they are only the sixth-best team in the conference. They are right up there with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos as the top teams in the AFC. They belong in the final four of this conference, and they went out and proved that with a resounding 30-17 win at Pittsburgh last week.

I view the Patriots as only slightly a better team than the Ravens on a neutral field. So, give the Patriots 3-4 points for home-field advantage, and this line should be somewhere in the neighborhood of Patriots -4. I believe we are getting some value in backing the Ravens catching a full touchdown in this game as a result. I just can’t foresee New England winning this game by two scores or more.

The numbers would indicate that these teams are pretty much equals, though the Ravens actually have a slight edge. The Ravens rank 8th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 28.0 yards per game. The Patriots are only 10th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game. Statistically, the Patriots aren’t as dominant as their 12-4 record would indicate.

I actually believe New England could have a bit of rust coming into this game. It didn’t go all out against Buffalo in Week 17 as it rested several starters. So, it has essentially had three weeks off in between its last meaningful game and this one. The Patriots also earned the No. 1 seed back in 2012-13, only to get upset at home by the Ravens 28-13 as 8-point favorites in the Divisional Round.

When Baltimore won the Super Bowl two years ago, it had to go on the road for the final two games in the AFC as well. This is a team that doesn’t get phased by having to go on the road and win big games as they have been there, done that. Since joining the league in 2008, Joe Flacco’s 10 postseason wins are more than any other quarterback, including the combined win total for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning (8). His win in Pittsburgh Saturday was his seventh on the road, which is two more than any other passer in NFL history.

Two of Flacco’s playoff road wins have come in his three career attempts in New England. The Ravens just have a knack for playing the Patriots tough. While New England sports a 5-3 record in its last eight meetings with Baltimore, only one of those five wins came by more than 6 points.  So, Baltimore has only lost once to New England by more than 6 points in the last eight meetings between these teams.

Yes, the Patriots did beat the Ravens 41-7 on the road last year, but that game was nowhere near the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Ravens actually outgained the Patriots 358-300 for the game, but gave it away by committing four turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns. The Patriots scored three times in the final 2:05 of the game to pull away.

The Ravens are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games.  Baltimore is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five road playoff games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Baltimore.  Take the Ravens Saturday.

15* Lions/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Detroit +7.5

The Dallas Cowboys come into the playoffs way overvalued. They are obviously one of the better teams in the NFL, but asking them to win by more than a touchdown to beat us is too much. That’s why I am siding with the Detroit Lions as underdogs in this one. Dallas is overvalued due to the way it finished the season, while Detroit is undervalued due to its finish.

I really look at these teams as pretty much equals. So, on a neutral field, the line should be set close to a pick ‘em. Give the Cowboys three points for home-field advantage, and this line should be closer to Dallas -3 or -4 at the most. The numbers would also indicate that these teams are equals. It’s just that the betting public loves to back the Cowboys when they are good, so you can get some value by going against them.

Obviously, the public is all over the Cowboys after their strong finish. They went a perfect 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall, making backers a ton of money. However, you have to consider that the Cowboys actually played better on the road than they did at home this year. They were 8-0 on the road compared to 4-4 at home.

Detroit won four of its final five games to finish strong as well, but its 20-30 loss to the Packers is what sticks out to the betting public the most coming into this game. Well, the Packers simply don’t lose at home as they went 8-0 at home this season. The Lions haven’t won at Lambeau Field since 1991 either, so I don’t look at that as a bad loss. That game was actually tied 14-14 in the second half before the Packers pulled away late.

When you look at the numbers, you could argue that the Lions are the better team. They rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 39.9 yards per game. The Cowboys are a very good team too, but they are 8th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 27.5 yards per game.

The Lions certainly have the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 17.6 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total defense at 300.9 yards per game. The Cowboys allow 22.0 points and 355.1 yards per game to rank 19th in total defense. The Lions allow 5.1 yards per play against teams that average 5.6 yards per play, while the Cowboys give up 6.0 yards per play against teams that average 5.7 yards per play. The YPP stat really tells a lot about how good a defense is.

The only reason the Cowboys haven’t put up worse numbers overall defensively is because their offense possesses the ball for nearly 33 minutes per game, while their defense only plays 27 minutes per contest. That’s because Dallas has a great rushing attack that averages 147 yards per game. Well, no team is better equipped to stop the run than the Lions. They rank 1st in the league in rushing defense, giving up just 69.3 yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

There has been some huge news come out of Detroit as of this writing. Ndamukong Suh was originally suspended for this game after stepping on Aaron Rodgers. Well, he appealed that suspension and won, which means that he will play in this game. There’s no denying that Suh is one of the dirtiest players in the game, but he is also one of the best defensive tackles in the league. His presence on the field will be huge in stopping DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys.

Dallas is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse. The Cowboys are 10-25 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in. Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight playoff games. The Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 January games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Take the Lions Sunday.

Note - If you have the option, I would recommend buying the Lions to +7.  As of this publishing, the Lions are at +6.5 and +7 in most places.  I didn't have the option of putting the pick in at +7, so I went with the +7.5 option at -125.  My actual bet is on the Lions +7 (-115).  I'd still recommend the Lions at +6.5 if you don't have the option to buy points.