20* Bills/Patriots ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Buffalo +7.5

The New England Patriots are clearly overvalued right now due to their 9-0 start as they remain one of two unbeaten teams in the NFL. That was evidenced last week as they were fortunate to escape with a 27-26 road win over the New York Giants as 7-point road favorites. The Giants really aren’t very good, and they should have won that game. They outgained the Patriots by 16 yards and racked up 422 yards of total offense in the loss.

One thing that’s getting overlooked here is that the Patriots aren’t going to be as explosive offensively going forward without two of their top three weapons. Dion Lewis is out for the season with a knee injury suffered a few weeks back, and Julian Edelman broke his foot against the Giants last week and now will be out indefinitely.

Lewis had accounted for 622 total yards and was averaging 10.8 yards per reception. Edelman’s 61 receptions leads the team to go along with 692 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Brady is left with a pedestrian group of weapons now on offense. He is great at doing more with less, but the fact of the matter is that Edelman and Lewis made this offense dynamic, but now this is just an above-average bunch.

Tyrod Taylor makes all the difference for the Bills. He returned two weeks ago and led the Bills to a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins. He also had a nice game in a 22-17 road win at the Jets last week. The Bills are 5-2 in games in which Taylor has started, and 0-2 in games he did not start in losses to the Jaguars and Bengals. Taylor is completing 70.5 percent of his passes with an 11-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 243 yards and two scores to give this offense an added dimension with his legs.

Buffalo is 3-0 in true road games this season as well.  It won 41-14 at Miami, 22-17 at New York and 14-13 at Tennessee.  It is outscoring teams by an average of 11.0 points per game on the road this year.  This team just has a knack for playing its best football away from home.  Keep in mind that Taylor started in all three of those road wins.

The Bills had one of their best performances of the season in a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins two weeks ago. They were coming off their bye week and really played a complete game. Now, they are essentially getting a mini-bye week here. They played last Thursday against the Jets, giving them three extra days of rest than the Patriots heading into this one. Rex Ryan getting extra time to prepare for the Patriots is a dangerous propositions. He played them tough almost every time when he was with the Jets, so he certainly knows how to game plan for Belichick and company.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East opponents. Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four November games. The road team is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Bills Monday.

15* Packers/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +1

I know the Packers are reeling right now, but I simply trust them more in a big game like this. I also believe it’s impossible that Aaron Rodgers loses a fourth straight game as a starting quarterback. Heck, he hadn’t lost two in a row since his first year in the league in 2008, let alone three. He will rally the troops this week and get the Packers to finally put their best foot forward now that first place is on the line in the division.

Minnesota was one of the most underrated teams in the first half of the season, but after a 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS start, this team is now overrated in my opinion. The Vikings are extremely fortunate to be 7-2 right now because they have won so many close games, and when you look at the numbers, there’s no way this team should be five games over .500.

Would you believe that Minnesota is actually getting outgained on the season? Well, that’s the simple truth. Its offense is only averaging 328.7 yards per game, while its defense is giving up 336.6 per contest, so the Vikings are getting outgained by 7.9 yards per game. Those are the types of numbers you would expect from a team that is 4-5 right now instead of 7-2.

There’s no question that the Vikings have a strong running game and defense, but there’s also no denying that the Packers have a massive edge at the quarterback position. Rodgers is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,270 yards with 21 touchdowns and only three interceptions, so he's not broken. The Vikings have been winning in spite of Teddy Bridgewater, who has thrown for 1,810 yards with only a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio. I’ll back Rodgers in this matchup all day every day.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. The Packers are 9-1-1 straight up in their last 11 meetings with the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers was hurt and didn’t play in the game that they tied, and the lone loss came back in 2012 in a 34-37 defeat at Minnesota in which Rodges threw for 365 yards and four touchdowns. The Vikings are improved this year, but I don’t believe they’re ready to win this division quite yet.

Rodgers has owned the Vikings, too.  In 14 career games against Minnesota, Rodgers is completing 71 percent of his passes with 31 touchdowns and four interceptions.  It's certainly one of his favorites teams in the league to face, and he pretty much just owns the entire NFC North.  Green Bay is 39-18 ATS in its last 57 games vs. NFC North opponents.   That's not going to change this week.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) – after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I believe Green Bay is finally undervalued here as an underdog after losing four straight games against the spread. This is the first time that the Packers have been underdogs all season, and we'll take advantage and grab the points.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Cowboys -1

Despite their seven straight losses for a 2-7 start, the Dallas Cowboys still have a realistic shot of winning the NFC East. That’s because the leader in the division is the New York Giants at 5-5, who 2.5 games ahead of the Cowboys. With seven games to go, you can bet the Cowboys are going to be in must-win mode from here on out to make a run in this weak division.

They certainly like their chances now that Tony Romo is back. They went 2-0 with him in their first two games, and 0-7 without him in their last seven. I’ve been saying it all along that Romo is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league, and this start just proves it. All the Cowboys were missing was a quarterback. They’d probably be somewhere around 7-2 if he had played in all nine games, but instead they are 2-7.

The Cowboys have played tough even without Romo and it’s almost impossible that they are 0-7 with how well they’ve played. They have lost two overtime games to the Saints and Eagles, they lost by 4 to Tampa Bay, by 1 to Seattle and by 7 to New York. So, five of their losses have come by a TD or less. Their defense has played well enough to win most of these games, but they just haven’t gotten anything out of their offense. That’s going to change now that Romo is back.

The Miami Dolphins just aren’t very good this season. They rank 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 40.0 yards per game. They have been thoroughly outplayed in their last three games and should have lost all three. They lost 7-36 at New England and 17-33 at Buffalo, and their 20-19 win over the Eagles last week was a fluke.

They were outgained 289-436 by the Eagles, or by 147 total yards. Sam Bradford got hurt late in that game and the Eagles couldn’t recover. The Dolphins got a blocked punt and a freak tipped pass for a TD that had them coming back from a 16-3 deficit to win.  So I’d have to say that the Dan Campbell factor has certainly worn off. Plus, they lost their top pass rusher in Cameron Wake to a season-ending injury against the Patriots, and their defense has not recovered. They are giving up 29.3 points and 431.0 yards per game in their last three contests.

Plays on road teams off seven or more consecutive losses in November games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss with a losing record on the season are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Miami is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games off a win by 3 points or less. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Dolphins are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games overall.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -5

The Atlanta Falcons are extremely motivated for a victory right now.  They had their bye last week, and they've had a sour taste in their mouth for two weeks now do to the stench of this 3-game losing streak.  Make no mistake about it, the Falcons will be laying it all on the line to get a victory Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.

Despite the three consecutive losses, the numbers show that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL.  They actually rank 3rd in yardage differential behind only the Cardinals and Patriots, outgaining teams by an average of 59.9 yards per game.  They rank 5th in total offense at 402.2 yards per game, and their defense is improved this season, ranking 14th at 342.3 yards per game.

The Colts are fortunate to be 4-5 this season because when you look at the numbers, they have been pretty awful.  They rank 28th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 40.5 yards per game.  They average a pedestrian 353.7 yards per game on offense, and they are terrible on defense, ranking 28th in allowing 394.2 yards per game.

Matt Hasselbeck will be starting in place of the injured Andrew Luck.  Yes, Hasselbeck is 2-0 as a starter this season, but a closer look shows that the Colts were playing two terrible opponents and were fortunate to win.  They needed overtime to beat the Jaguars 16-13 at home and were outgained by 105 yards in that game, 326-431.  They also squeaked out a 27-20 road win over the Texans, and were again outgained by 121 yards, 323-444.

They shouldn't have won either of those games when you look at the yardage totals.  Now, against one of the best teams they've played this season in the Falcons, Hasselbeck is going to be exposed.  This is where you are going to see how much the Colts miss Luck, because Hasselbeck can't keep up with this high-powered Falcons offense.  He could keep up with the Jaguars and Texans, but not the Falcons.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a road loss are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* Tennessee/Missouri SEC East No-Brainer on Missouri +7

I really like the state of mind of the Missouri Tigers right now.  Once Gary Pinkel announced last week that this would be his last season, these players really rallied around one another.  They pulled off the 20-16 upset as 4.5-point underdogs last week against a good BYU team.  Now, this will be Pinkel's final home game as the head coach of the Tigers.  There's just going to be a little extra juice with this team given the situation.

This is going to be a night game in the Zoo to boot, and Columbia has been one of the toughest places to play at night over the years.  The Tigers (5-5) also still need another win to get bowl eligible, and since their next game is at Arkansas, this is their best chance to get one.  I just believe they are going to be putting all their eggs in one basket to get a win for Pinkel and to get bowl eligible.

The Tigers offense has been their reason for their poor record, because their defense is elite, limiting opponents to 14.7 points and 297.7 yards per game.  But the offense broke out against BYU for 434 total yards, limiting the Cougars to just 290 in the process.  Running back Russell Hansbrough recently returned from injury and had his first 100-yard effort of the season against the Cougars, which is a good sign going forward.  Freshman Drew Lock continues to improve, throwing for 244 yards and completing 68 percent of his passes last week.

Tennessee is just kind of going through the motions right now, picking up its sixth win to get bowl eligible last week in a lackluster 24-0 home win over North Texas as 40.5-point favorites.  That followed up another sub-par effort in a 27-24 home win over South Carolina as 17-point favorites.  I really don't think you can trust this team laying 7 points on the road this week, especially with all that Missouri has to play for here.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Tigers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Tennessee as SEC opponents over the last three years.  Missouri has actually been an underdog in two of those three games as well.  It also won 31-3 in its lone home meeting with Tennessee in 2012.

Missouri is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  The Volunteers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Roll with Missouri Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -4

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming on strong in the second half this year just as they did last season. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Alabama by a final of 14-27 as 15.5-point underdogs. That’s the same Alabama team that torched Mississippi State 31-6 last weekend.

Coming off that crushing loss to Alabama that ended any hopes of the Bulldogs winning the SEC, I look for them to suffer a hangover effect this week against the Razorbacks. They won’t be nearly as jacked up for this game against Arkansas as they were last week against Alabama. I’ll gladly side with the team playing the better football right now as short home favorites.

Arkansas has played a gauntlet of a schedule this year. It had to face Texas Tech and Toledo out of conference, but looking back, that may have been a blessing in disguise as the Razorbacks have been great in SEC play. Believe it or not, they still have a shot to earn at least a share of the SEC West title because they are 4-2 right now within the conference. They have two home games remaining against Mississippi State and Missouri, so 6-2 is very likely. They would need Alabama to lose at Auburn, but in that rivalry game, anything is possible.

Mississippi State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has taken advantage of a very soft schedule this season, playing Southern Miss, Northwestern State, Troy and LA Tech out of conference. It also drew two of the worst teams from the SEC East in Kentucky and Missouri and beat them both, while Arkansas had to play what I believe is the best team from the East in Tennessee. The Razorbacks beat the Vols 24-20 on the road.

Mississippi State has not fared well against the best three teams that it has played. It lost 19-21 at home to LSU in what was a 21-6 game in the fourth quarter. That’s the same LSU team that Arkansas beat 31-14 on the road last week. Mississippi State also lost 17-30 at Texas A&M, while Arkansas took Texas A&M to overtime on a neutral field. And finally, the Bulldogs lost 6-31 at home to Alabama, while Arkansas only lost 14-27 on the road to the Crimson Tide.

As you can see from that previous paragraph, when you compare common opponents, it’s clear that Arkansas is by far the superior team. These teams have played the same four teams this season in Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Mississippi State is 1-3 against them scoring just 14.8 points per game and getting outscored by 8.0 points per game, while Arkansas is 2-2 against them scoring 30.0 points per game and outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.

This Arkansas offense is unstoppable right now and may be the best unit in the entire SEC. It is putting up 50.3 points per game during its current four-game winning streak. It scored 54 against Auburn, 63 against Tennessee Martin, 53 against Ole Miss and 31 against LSU. The Razorbacks racked up 605 total yards on Ole Miss and 440 total yards on LSU, which is no small feat and just shows how well they are playing on that side of the ball right now. Mississippi State does not have the firepower to keep up, and its defense has taken a big step back this year.

Arkansas is 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 or more yards per attempt over the past two seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over their last three games. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  This is a huge hangover spot for the Bulldogs off that Alabama loss, so expect the Razorbacks to roll again.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -1.5

New Mexico is in the ultimate letdown spot here.  It just clinched a bowl win with a shocking upset of Boise State last week as whopping 31-point underdogs, winning 31-24 on the road.  The Lobos have now accomplished their goal of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2007.  That's a huge accomplishment, but now this team is not going to show up at all this week.

Besides, the win over Boise State was extremely fluky.  The Lobos were outgained by 225 yards in that game as Boise   racked up 638 total yards, but found a way to lose by committing four turnovers.  The Lobos are extremely fortunate to be 6-4 because they have been outgained in seven of their 10 games this season, and they only outgained New Mexico State by 30 yards and Wyoming by 1 yards in two of the games they weren't outgained.  The other was the opener against Mississippi Valley State.

New Mexico is getting outgained by an average of 60.9 yards per game on the season.  While New Mexico is content with being bowl eligible, Colorado State (5-5) still needs another win to clinch a bowl berth.  It will be the more motivated team here as a result.  The Rams are clearly the better team as they are outgaining teams by 16.5 yards per game this season, and they've played a tougher schedule than New Mexico to boot.

I really like the way the Rams are playing coming into this game.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat a good Air Force team 38-23 at home, topped Wyoming 26-7 on the road, and beat UNLV 49-35 at home.  Yes, they lost 17-41 at home to San Diego State, but the Aztecs are crushing everyone right now.  Plus, the Rams gave that game away by committing four turnovers because they were only outgained by 88 yards.  It was closer than that final score suggests.

Colorado State owns New Mexico, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The last two haven't even been close.  Colorado State won 66-42 as 7-point road favorites in 2013 while racking up 649 yards of offense.  The Rams also won 58-20 as 20.5-point home favorites last year, racking up 698 yards and outgaining New Mexico by 342 yards.

Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a home games.  New Mexico is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less.  The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Don't expect New Mexico to even show up for this one off that win over Boise State.  Roll with Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +29

The Clemson Tigers just cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves with their No. 1 ranking in the playoffs.  Oddsmakers have been forced to set the spreads in their games too high the last two weeks because of their ranking and the betting public's tendency to back these teams blindly.  They haven't lived up to those expectations.  After all, all undefeated teams went 1-5 ATS last week, and I expect that trend to continue this week.

Clemson failed to cover as a 12.5-point home favorite two weeks ago against Florida State, winning that game by 10 in what was a tie game entering the 4th quarter.  I successfully faded the Tigers in that game, and then again last week when they were massive 30-point favorites over Syracuse on the road.  They only beat the Orange 37-27.  I'm fading them for a 3rd straight week now that they are overvalued again as 29-point favorites over Wake Forest.

This is a Wake Forest team that is better than its 3-7 record would suggest.  It has been competitive in every single game this season outside of a 14-50 loss at North Carolina.  All six of its other losses came by 17 points or less.  That includes a 16-24 loss to Florida State as 19-point dogs, a 19-20 loss to Louisville as 12-point dogs, and a 7-28 loss at Notre Dame last week as 25.5-point dogs.

That game at Notre Dame really stands out to me.  Wake Forest actually outplayed the Fighting Irish in that game.  The Demon Deacons had a 340-282 yard edge.  That's right, they limited the high-powered Fighting Irish offense to just 282 total yards, 98 of which came on a TD run.  They had a 23-15 edge in first downs, but converted just 1 of 4 of their red zone trips and were stopped on the 1-yard line in the 2nd quarter.  If they can hang with Notre Dame, they can certainly hang with Clemson.

"I think we realized that we're a more talented team and that we can play with anyone in the country," sophomore quarterback John Wolford said. "It's just a matter of execution, knowing your assignment, just not making stupid plays. Right now we're still young, so for us to be in these games we have to be smart, we have to execute, and coming down to the end of games we have to try and find a way to win."

Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games following five or more consecutive straight up wins, only winning by 5.6 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 1-8 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five  games following a S.U. loss.  Clemson doesn't need style points, it just needs a win, which is all it cares about right now.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Penn State +4

There's a lot to love about Penn State in this game.  The Nittany Lions are coming off their bye week following a last-second 21-23 loss at Northwestern.  They have had two weeks to stew over that defeat, and there's no question that they're be chomping at the bit to hit the field in Happy Valley Saturday.  The bye has also given players like stud RB Saquon Barkley a chance to heal his injured ankle.

Meanwhile, Michigan is coming off a double-overtime win at Indiana last week and will be fatigued.  In fact, the Wolverines' last two road games against unranked opponents have gone down to the wire, and they were outplayed in both but found a way to win.  They won at Minnesota thanks to a goal-line stand despite getting outgained 461-296 by the Golden Gophers.  They also needed a fourth-and-goal TD pass on the last play of regulation to force OT against Indiana last week.  They won't be so fortunate in Happy Valley this weekend.

This is also a lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have "The Game" on deck next week against Ohio State.  They won't be able to help but look ahead to that contest.  I think the Nittany Lions are catching them at the perfect time all things considered, and I'm not so sure that Penn State isn't the better team.

After all, Happy Valley is a place where opposing teams have gone to die this season.  Indeed, Penn State is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 20.2 points per game.  Their defense has been suffocating at home, allowing just 9.8 points and 252.5 yards per game.  Their offense has gotten it going at home, averaging 30.0 points per game.  The Nittany Lions are also 3-0 straight up in their last three home meetings with Michigan.

Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  The Nittany Lions are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss.  The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* UNC/VA Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +6

The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be laying it all on the line this week for a couple of different reasons.  The biggest is that it's the final home game of Frank Beamer's illustrious career, but it's also a chance to become bowl eligible and extend their nation's longest bowl streak to 23 seasons.  Oh yea, it's also Senior Day for 26 Hokies on the roster.  It's safe to say that these players will be leaving it all on the field Saturday.

''We all know it's a huge game, not only for Frank but for us,'' senior defensive tackle Luther Maddy said this week. ''It's my last time walking through the tunnel at Lane Stadium, so I know I'm going to have some emotions running through my body. I'm sure all the other seniors will also. I think we're going to play our butts off this game, not only for us but for Coach Beamer and for this team to keep this bowl streak going. It'll be a huge game.''

The Hokies can also secure bowl eligibility next week by winning their regular-season finale against Virginia. Beamer's son Shane, the Hokies' associate head coach and running backs coach, would obviously prefer it happens against North Carolina.  ''I can't wait for Saturday,'' he said. ''We need Lane Stadium to be the loudest it's ever been on Saturday. Ever.''

North Carolina is only ranked 17th in the playoff poll with a 9-1 record because it has played such a soft schedule this year.  It has played seven home games, one neutral site game (a loss to South Carolina), and two true road games.  It only beat both Georgia Tech and Pitt by 7 points apiece in its two true road games, and Virginia Tech is better than both of those squads in my opinion, especially now that QB Michael Brewer is back.

Brewer led the Hokies to a 23-21 win at Georgia Tech last week, which followed up a 26-10 win at Boston College the previous week.  But defense has been the main reason for the late-season resurgence.  The Hokies held Boston College to just 218 yards and forced four turnovers.  They also limited a very good Georgia Tech offense to 258 yards and forced three turnovers.  This is a senior-laden defense that will be playing with a chip on its shoulder in trying to tame this UNC offense.

UNC has had a very good offense the last two seasons, but Beamer and defensive coordinator Bud Foster have shut the Tar Heels down.  The Hokies won 27-17 at home in 2013 over the Tar Heels and held them to 376 yards.  They also won 34-17 on the road last year while limiting Marquise Williams and company to 323 yards.  Foster clearly has this UNC offense figured out.

UNC is 9-27 ATS in its last 36 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games.  Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last games as the coach of UNC.  Beamer is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Virginia Tech.  These are two 100% never lost systems folks.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +23

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most overrated teams in the country right now.  They are currently No. 5 in the playoff rankings due to their 10-0 record, and while they've earned that record, the fact of the matter is that it's come against a soft schedule.

It's telling that oddsmakers in Las Vegas would have Iowa as a 10-plus point underdog to each of the top three playoff contenders in Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State on a neutral field, as well as an 8-point underdog to Notre Dame.  I don't have much of a problem with their No. 5 ranking, but the fact of the matter is that they're way overvalued right now.

That certainly showed last week as they opened as 12-point favorites against Minnesota and the money moved the line down to -9.  Iowa barely won that game 40-35 a week after escaping with a 35-27 win at Indiana.  Those are two bad teams, and Iowa couldn't put them away.  It's just not their style to win in blowout fashion, which is why Purdue is showing so much value here as a 23-point dog.

Purdue continues to fight here down the stretch, beating Nebraska 55-45 three weeks ago and nearly upsetting Northwestern in a 14-21 road loss last week.  I really like what I've seen from redshirt freshman QB David Blough, who has averaged 245 passing yards on 62 percent completions with six touchdowns and three interceptions over his past three games.  He's getting more and more comfortable as the season goes on.

Blough should have some success against this Iowa defense, which has given up a combined 62 points and 841 yards to Indiana and Minnesota the past two weeks.  It also help that leading rusher Markell Jones is probable to play after dealing with a knee injury.  He has been a huge bright spot on this team, rushing for 692 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per carry.

Iowa QB C.J. Beathard is having a fine season, but he's been banged up all year, and next week's game against Nebraska is more important, so don't expect the coaching staff to allow him to run as much as he normally does.  Beathard's latest ailment is a hip injury suffered in the win over Minnesota last week.  But he's also dealing with a groin injury, so he's just nowhere near 100 percent.

Iowa is playing with unbeaten pressure right now too, which could help explain its close calls against Indiana and Minnesota.  It doesn't need style points either, just a win will do, and that's all that head coach Kirk Ferentz cares about.  He's not one to run up scoreboards, that's for sure, and the Hawkeyes aren't capable anyways.  They are a run-first, stop the run type of team that's not flashy at all.  That's why it's so difficult for them to cover these monstrous spreads.

Unbeaten teams went 1-5 against the spread last week, so with each win from these teams comes bigger expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers.  Oddsmakers are forced to shade their lines because they know the public is going to be on them.

Iowa has eight wins over Power 5 teams, but those have come by just an average of 11.0 points per game.  Purdue has faced three teams who are currently ranked by the playoff committee, and it has only lost those games by an average of 9.0 points per game.  That alone shows you there's some value with the Boilermakers here.

Plus, Purdue has actually played its best football on the road this season.  It suffered a fluke 31-41 loss at Marshall in the opener where it gave up a pick-6 in the closing seconds when it was driving for the win after leading the entire way.  The Boilermakers are 3-0 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing at Michigan State 21-24 as 23-point dogs, at Wisconsin 7-24 as 23-point dogs, and at Northwestern 14-21 as 14-point dogs.

I would argue that Michigan State and Wisconsin are both better than Iowa, and Purdue played both tough on the road as identical 23-point dogs, losing by an average of 10.0 points to them.  Yes, Wisconsin did lose to Iowa 10-6, but that was a fluky loss too because the Badgers outgained the Hawks by 99 yards and fumbled on the 1-yard line on what would have been the winning TD.

This is Purdue's Super Bowl.  An upset win here would make their season.  I'm not calling for that, but that's just their mentality coming in.  They have nothing to lose while Iowa has everything to lose, so there's no pressure on the Boilermakers.  It also helps that home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall.  Purdue won 27-24 as a 5-point dog in its last trip to Iowa City, and lost 17-22 as a 17-point dog the time before.

Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  It is only losing to these teams by an average of 6.3 points per game.  The Boilermakers are consistently undervalued on the road, especially against good teams.  That's the case again here.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Purdue as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR Saturday!

20* Cincinnati/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +2

When I first looked into this game, I didn’t love the spot for South Florida. They just won their 6th game last week in an upset victory over Temple to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. I initially thought this would be a letdown spot for them after that accomplishment, but a closer inspection shows that they still have plenty to play for and will have no problem getting focused for Cincinnati this week.

Indeed, the Bulls are actually in second place in the AAC East standings at 4-2. The team ahead of them? Temple at 5-1. But the Bulls obviously have the tiebreaker over the Owls now, so if they can win out they will have a good chance to play in the AAC Championship Game. Temple still has to play Memphis and UConn, and there’s a good chance it loses one of those two games. Cincinnati (3-3) is two games back in the AAC East with little to play for right now, so if anything I have to question the Bearcats’ motivation.

With how well the Bulls are playing right now, it would be foolish to bet against them. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games with blowout wins over Syracuse (45-24), SMU (38-14) and Temple (44-23). They also went on the road and beat East Carolina (22-17) and Connecticut (28-20) as underdogs. They have actually been an underdog in five of their last six games. They outgained ECU by 222 yards and Temple by 176 yards in their last two games.

Raymond James Stadium has offered South Florida a tremendous home-field advantage this year. It is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 21.4 points per game in the process. Its only loss came to Memphis by a final of 17-24. The Bulls are also outgaining teams by an average of 155.0 yards per game at home this year.

Cincinnati has a very good offense but an awful defense. It is giving up 28.2 points and 403 yards per game. Its biggest problem has been stopping the run. The Bearcats are giving up 186 yards rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 150 per game and 3.9 per carry.

That’s bad news for them because now they’re up against a South Florida offense that is averaging 228 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. Marlon Mack, one of the most underrated backs in the country, rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Temple defense last week. He now has 1,065 yards while averaging 6.5 per carry on the season. He should have another career game against this weak Cincinnati stop unit.

Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming at Miami Ohio by a final of 37-33 as 21-point favorites. Miami Ohio is 2-9 on the season and has been outscored by 176 points this year. USF is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that complete 58% or more of their passes over the last two years. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  Bet South Florida Friday.

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville -3

The Jaguars are really improving as the season goes on under head coach Gus Bradley. They have gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in their last three games overall. They beat a good Bills team 34-31 over in London and also upset the Ravens 22-20 on the road as 5-point underdogs.

Even the game they lost they should have won as they fell 23-28 as 7.5-point road dogs to the Jets. They actually outgained the Jets by 146 total yards in the game, racking up 436 total yards against a good New York defense, while also only allowing 290 total yards. But they finished that game -4 in turnover differential, which proved to be the difference.

I really like the state of mind of the Jaguars right now. They are only one game back of both Indianapolis and Houston for first place in the AFC South, so they have a lot to play for. I don’t really like the mindset of the 2-7 Titans, who had their head coach fired midseason. They responded with a road win at New Orleans in Mike Mularkey’s first game as interim head coach, but then proceeded to go back to their usual bad ways in a 10-27 home loss to the Panthers last week.

That win over the Saints was really an aberration, but the Saints also lost badly to the Redskins last week, so that team isn’t playing well right now. The Titans are still 1-5 in their last six games overall. They have been outgained by at least 59 yards in four of their last five games, including 122 yards by the Falcons and 135 yards by the Dolphins in a 10-38 loss.

Marcus Mariota is being asked to do too much because the Titans just do not have a running game. They have been held to 97 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last eight games, so this is really a one-dimensional offense.  Now, another starting WR in Justin Hunter went down with a broken foot last week.  Kendall Wright is also out after missing the last three games with an MCL injury.  Wright and Hunter are the team's #2 and #3 leading receivers this season behind tight end Delanie Walker, so Mariota's options are clearly limited right now.

Blake Bortles has a lot more help around him than Mariota does. Bortles has a nice stable of young receivers, plus T.J. Yeldon is having a fine rookie season running the football. He has rushed for 532 yards this year while averaging 4.0 per carry.  Allen Hurns has caught a touchdown in seven consecutive games, which is a franchise record.  Allen Robinson is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL as well.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent years. The home team is 6-2 straight up in the last eight meetings, and the home team won both meetings last season. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three years. The Titans are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Tennessee is 4-20-2 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC South opponents. The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC foes.  Bet the Jaguars Thursday.

15* ECU/UCF ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Central Florida +14.5

The Central Florida Knights haven’t had a lot to be excited about this season. They are 0-10 and their head coach, George O’Leary, stepped down midseason. But they certainly do not want to go 0-12 this season and have that hanging over their heads all offseason. They have two more chances to get a win, both at home as they host East Carolina and then South Florida. Look for them to lay it all on the line in this game to get a win, especially since they are playing in a nationally televised home game on ESPN Thursday night. That’s more than enough motivation to bring out their best effort.

East Carolina has really fizzled out here down the stretch. It has gone 0-3 in its last three games overall and has been thoroughly outplayed in the process. Even though the Pirates beat Tulsa three weeks back 30-17, they were outgained in that contest by 81 yards. They blew a late lead and lost 14-24 at home to Temple three weeks ago, and they went on to get blown out 13-31 at Connecticut two games ago.  They have been held to just 14.7 points per game in their last three.

Last week, ECU lost 17-22 at home to South Florida as 5.5-point favorites. While that final score looks close, this was actually a huge blowout in the Bulls’ favor. They outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in the game and should have won by a lot more. They racked up 442 yards while limiting the Pirates to just 220 yards. I just don’t like the way the Pirates are playing right now, and you cannot trust them to win by more than a two touchdowns on the road, which is what it would take to cover this 14.5-point spread.

UCF has put together a couple of promising efforts here of late that make me think it can hang with East Carolina. It only lost 16-30 on the road at Temple as 19.5-point dogs on October 17 to cover that spread. The Knights also covered as 17-point road dogs to Tulsa in their last game in a 30-45 loss. But that game was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 13 yards, but they committed four turnovers to help Tulsa pull away.

ECU has not beaten UCF by more than 14 points in any of their nine meetings dating back to 2005. The Pirates have won five of those nine meetings, but their victories have come by 7, 5, 3, 14 and 13 points. The Knights have won the last two with a 40-20 home win in 2012 and a 32-30 road win in 2014.

The Pirates are 0-9 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. ECU is 4-12 ATS as a favorite over the last two years. The Pirates are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 conference games. ECU is 0-6 ATS in its last six Thursday games. UCF is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games.  Take UCF Thursday.

15* Western Michigan/Northern Illinois MAC No-Brainer on UNDER 61

First place in the MAC West division is on the line when the Western Michigan Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies get together tonight at Huskie Stadium.  The intensity will be turned up a notch in this one, and I believe that favors both defenses tremendously in what will be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Both of these teams have been pretty solid defensively this season.  The Huskies only give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.  The Broncos have been much better within the conference, giving up 23.7 points and 376.3 yards per game.  They only allowed 14 points to Ohio, 13 to Miami Ohio and 7 to Ball State in three of their last five contests.

Northern Illinois is without starting QB Drew Hare, and the offense isn't as explosive with backup Ryan Graham in there.  Graham has only played the last 1.5 games due to the Hare injury.  He played well to close against Toledo, but the Huskies relied mostly on their rushing attack to beat Buffalo last week.

What really stands out to me is the low-scoring nature of this series.  These teams combined for 52 points and 351.0 yards apiece last year in a 31-21 NIU victory.  They combined for 47 points and 360.0 yards apiece in a 33-14 NIU home win in 2013 as well.  In fact, eight of the last 10 meetings have seen 55 or fewer combined points.  Also, 15 of the last 19 meetings have seen 60 or less.

Western Michigan is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 UNDER in its last 43 home games vs. conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Huskies last eight November games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings at Northern Illinois.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Toledo +7

This feels a lot like last year when Bowling Green clinched the MAC East Title with a few weeks to go and proceeded to tank the rest of the way. I could easily see that happening again this year after the Falcons clinched the MAC East with their 41-27 win at Central Michigan last week. They literally have nothing to play for now, and betting on teams in these situations will get you killed.

Last year, Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title with two games left. It went on to lose 20-27 at Toledo as 7-point underdogs and 24-41 at home to Ball State as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27 points in that game. The Falcons also went on to lose to Northern Illinois 17-51 in the MAC Championship.

Toledo has everything to play for right now. It is sitting in a three-way tie with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan for first place in the MAC West and the right to play Bowling Green in the MAC Championship. The Rockets are going to have to win out and get some help because they lost a heartbreaker 27-32 to Northern Illinois, so the Huskies hold the tiebreaker over them.  But they host Western Michigan next week so they have a good shot.

The Rockets did a great job of handling their business last week in winning 28-23 at Central Michigan. This game was a bigger blowout than the final score indicated as the Rockets jumped out to a 21-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas. The Chippewas even got a defensive touchdown to help get them back in the game.

Toledo has actually outgained each of its last seven opponents this season. The only two games it got outgained this year it still found a way to beat Iowa State and Arkansas. The Rockets are very good on both sides of the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8. They also give up just 5.0 yards per play defensively against teams that average 5.5.

Bowling Green’s success offensively is well documented, but it will finally be up against a legitimate defense this week. The Rockets only allow 18.8 points per game and will be the best defense that the Falcons have seen in conference play. Bowling Green’s biggest weakness is its defense, which allows 27.9 points, 439 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

I believe the Falcons come in overvalued due to having gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Well, the last two games were a lot closer than the final scores. They beat Ohio 62-24 despite only outgaining the Bobcats by 38 yards. They also beat Western Michigan 41-27 despite only outgaining the Broncos by 18 yards.

Toledo simply owns Bowling Green, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Not only are they winning these games, they are dominating them. They have outgained Bowling Green in all five games with four of those coming by 101 yards or more. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if they win this game outright as well, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Toledo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Rockets have actually had an extra day of rest than the Falcons.  They played last Tuesday while the Falcons played on Wednesday, and that is a nice advantage for them as well.  Bet Toledo Tuesday.

20* Texans/Bengals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +10.5

Because the Bengals are 8-0 straight up and 7-0-1 against the spread this season, the betting public is quick to continue backing them.  Oddsmakers know this, and thus they have to shade the line in the Bengals' favor to try and get even action on both side.  This has created some excellent line value to swoop in and back the double-digit underdog Texans.

That's especially the case with the great spot the Texans are in.  They are coming off a season-saving 20-6 win over the Titans last week in which their defense came through with their best performance of the season, limiting Tennessee to just 211 total yards and forcing three turnovers.  At 3-5, most teams wouldn't be able to come back and make the playoffs, but that's not the case for the Texans.

Houston only trails Indianapolis 0.5 games in the AFC East and can pull into a first-place tie with a win.  That's why I love the motivation of this Texans team right now, and they had to have a much more enjoyable bye week after their 14-point win over the Titans.  They have had two weeks to get rested, healthy, and prepared to face the Bengals.  That's a huge advantage coming into this game.  The Bengals are so far out in front of the Steelers in the AFC North that they can afford to take their foot off the gas, too.

Cincinnati backers were rewarded laying double-digits last week in a 31-10 win over the Johnny Manziel-led Browns.  But that was a 7-point game into the fourth quarter.  And the Browns are a mess right now.  So after winning last week by laying the big points, the betting public won't be scared to do so again this week.  The problem for the public is that the Texans are a much more formidable opponent than Manziel and the Browns.

Statistically, the Texans are a much better team than their 3-5 record would indicate.  They actually rank 9th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 18.5 yards per game.  The Bengals are 7th in yardage differential to compare.  The Texans have an underrated offense that ranks 9th in the NFL at 369.4 yards per game.  They also have a respectable defense that is 14th and one that I believe will only get better as the season goes on.

Houston is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Cincinnati.  It will be out for revenge from a 22-13 home loss to the Bengals late in the season last year that ultimately cost the Texans a playoff spot.  Had they won that game, they would have been in the postseason.  Things like that are not forgotten, and the Texans are really looking at this as a must-win game here.

Plays on underdogs with a poor rushing offense (3.5 YPR or less) against a poor rushing defense (4.5 YPR or more) after 8-plus games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on road teams who are slow starters that are outscored by 5 or more points per game at halftime, after allowing 6 points or less last game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  This trend just shows how teams who continue covering spreads are overvalued in the second half of the season.  The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 90 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game.  Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Cincinnati.  Bet the Texans Monday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -3

Remember last year when the Seahawks were 3-3 to start the season an everyone was panicking. They went on to finish 12-4 and earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Well, they opened an even worse 2-4 this year and everyone was panicking again. But they’ve reeled off two straight victories since with a 20-3 win at San Francisco and a 13-12 win at Dallas. They are now 4-4 and only two games behind the Cardinals in the NFC West. If they want to win the division this year, they cannot afford to lose this game.

The Seahawks outgained the 49ers by 246 yards and the Cowboys by 103 yards in their last two games, so they clearly have gotten it together. Their defense has gotten back to being the most dominant in the league. They held the 49ers to just 142 total yards and the Cowboys to 220. Now I look for them to shut down this overrated Arizona offense this week to help aid the victory.

Seattle has held a lead in the 4th quarter in every game this season and could easily be 8-0. But it lost to four very good teams including three on the road. The Seahawks’ four losses have come to Carolina, Cincinnati, Green Bay and St. Louis, who are a combined 26-6 this season. So they have fell victim to a tough early schedule. But again, they held a 4th quarter lead in every game they lost despite the difficulty of the schedule.

Arizona is way overvalued due to its 6-2 start this season. Its six wins have come against New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore and Cleveland. Those six teams are a combined 15-36 this season, and none of the six currently owns even a .500 record, let alone a winning record. Even the losses were suspect as they fell 22-24 at home to the Rams and 13-25 on the road to the Steelers, who were playing without Ben Roethlisberger. This team has simply taken advantage of a very easy schedule to this point.

Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings. It is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all four wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 28.8 points per game. They have outscored the Cardinals by a combined 108 points in those five meetings even when you factor in their 17-10 home loss. One thing that really stands out to me is that Seattle has been favored by 9.5, 8, and 10.5 in its last three home meetings with Arizona. Now it is only a 3-point favorite, which just shows how much Arizona is being overvalued right now.

While Russell Wilson has figured out Arizona’s defense to the tune of 31.2 points per game in the last five meetings, this Seattle defense has shut down Arizona. The Cardinals have only averaged 9.6 points per game in their last five meetings with Seattle. The Cardinals are running the football better this year, but they are still a pass-first team. That bodes well for the Seahawks, who rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 186.4 yards per game.

The Seahawks simply do not lose at home. They are 28-3 in all home games over the past four seasons as the 12th man is the real deal. Seattle is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  This may be the last time you get Seattle at a discount, so take advantage this week.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Broncos AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +6

This is a great spot for the Chiefs. They have turned their season around in their last two games with back-to-back double-digit wins over the Steelers and Lions. They beat the Steelers 23-13 at home before crushing the Lions 45-10 in London. Now they have had two weeks off to continue to improve as a team under Andy Reid.

It is a proven fact that Reid is one of the best head coaches all-time at coming up with a game plan when given two weeks to prepare. Indeed, Reid was 13-1 straight up in Philadelphia off a bye, and he's now 14-2 after going 1-1 with the Chiefs thus far. He is known for giving his players a full week off, while under the CBA terms, players only get a mandatory four days off on a bye week. Rex Ryan was previously 1-5 off a bye, but changed it up and took a page from Reid’s book last week. He gave the Bills a full week off, and they responded with a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins.

The Chiefs have plenty of motivation heading into this one. They have lost seven straight to the Broncos, and the last time they lost eight in row in this series was all the way back from 1976 to 1979. They gave away the game in their first meeting in a 24-31 home loss as the Broncos scored 14 points in the final 36 seconds. The Chiefs uncharacteristically committed five turnovers in that game to hand Denver the win. In their other seven games this season, they have only committed a combined three turnovers just to prove how fluky that game was.

The reason the Chiefs have a chance to pull the upset in this game is because their defense is finally playing up to their potential. The Chiefs have held their last four opponents to 18 points or less, and an average of 14.3 points per game. This defense is loaded at every level and is especially good at getting after opposing quarterbacks. That will be key against the struggling Peyton Manning, who has thrown nine touchdowns against 13 interceptions this year. He has thrown at least one interception in all eight games this season.

Injuries and suspensions to several key players for the Broncos will hamper them this week.  Manning is banged up with a foot injury, though he's expected to play.  Emmanuel Sanders has an ankle injury that kept him out of practice Friday, and he's questionable.  On defense, LB Demarcus Ware is out with a back injury.  That will allow the Chiefs O-Line to focus on Von Miller.  The Broncos will also be without their top cornerback in Aqib Talib, who has been suspended for this one.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) – after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 102-59 (63.4%) ATS since 1983. Kansas City is 24-11 ATS in its last 25 games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +11

The Green Bay Packers weren't as good as everyone thought they were during their 6-0 start to the season.  They never once covered the spread by more than a touchdown in those first six games, and they have finally been exposed the past two weeks against better-quality teams.  Green Bay was outgained by 360 yards in a 10-29 loss at Denver and by 25 yards in a 29-37 loss at Carolina, which was nowhere near as close as the final score showed as the Packers got some late yardage and points in the 4th quarter to make it interesting.

In fact, the Packers have now been outgained in four straight games and in five of eight games this season.  They actually rank a woeful 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 41.2 yards per game on the season.  Aaron Rodgers is perceived to be the best QB in the league, and while he may be, this offense just isn't getting it done.  The Packers actually rank just 25th in total offense this year at 340.9 yards per game.

Statistically, these teams are almost equals as the Lions are getting outgained by 48.0 yards per game this year, which is only 6.8 yards more than the Packers.  But this 11-point spread would indicate that the Packers are by far the superior team, but that's simply not the case.  Rodgers clearly misses Jordy Nelson because his receivers aren't getting much separation outside of Randall Cobb.  Everything is just coming much tougher for this offense than it did in year's past.

It's not just the offense, though.  The defense has surrendered an average of 275 passing yards per game in its last three contests.  Green Bay also allowed the Broncos and Panthers to rush for a combined 290 yards.  The Packers are dealing with a bevy of injuries on defense, too.  Cornerbacks Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, and Damarious Randall are all questionable to play this week, and all three play significant roles.

The Lions have had their bye week to regroup and get ready for the Packers, and they would love nothing more than to add to Green Bay's misery by pulling off the upset here.  They also want to put an end to a 24-game losing streak at Lambeau Field, which has been well documented.

Matthew Stafford has actually played pretty well at Lambeau, too, throwing 10 touchdowns against three interceptions in four career starts there.  The Lions have been close in recent meetings at Lambeau, though.  Their last five visits were decided by 10, 13, 7, 4 and 2 points.  So, four of the five resulted in losses by 10 points or less, which would be good enough to cover this 11-point spread.

The Lions are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games following a loss by 21 points or more, and 19-6 ATS in their last 25 road games off a loss by 14 or more.  Plays on road teams (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Detroit could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now due to recent results.  Take the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7

Since their 26-0 loss to Detroit in Week 3 with Jimmy Clausen at QB, the Chicago Bears have been in every game they've played.  Each of their last five games have been decided by 3 points or less, and they've beaten Oakland at home while also going on the road and knocking off Kansas City and Oakland.  Their only losses came at Detroit (34-37) in overtime at home against Minnesota (20-23) after they allowed 10 points in the final two minutes.

Jay Cutler has been back and healthy every since that loss to the Seahawks.  He is really playing well now, especially since Alshon Jeffery returned healthy.  Jeffery has finished with at least 100 receiving yards in each of his last three games.  He has only been able to play in four games all season, but he has still managed to catch 33 balls for 492 yards and two touchdowns in those four games.  He is questionable with groin injury this week, but all signs point to him playing after he practiced on a limited basis Friday.

The St. Louis Rams have no business laying this kind of weight against a solid Chicago team.  The Rams are 4-4 on the season and still feature and awful offense that is only averaging 19.1 points and 312.6 yards per game this season.  The Rams are actually getting outgained by 11.1 yards per game this season.

The Bears, in spite of their 3-5 record, are actually outgaining teams by 5.2 yards per game.  That's impressive with both Cutler and Jeffery missing significant time, and now Matt Forte out.  John Fox has clearly had a huge influence on this team, and that's really been evident on defense.  He has turned this Chicago defense into a Top 10 (9th) unit in allowing just 341.9 yards per game this season.

Only two of the Rams' four wins this season came by more than 3 points, and those were against the 49ers and Browns, who are two of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Bears are certainly in a different class than those two teams statistically.  But the Bears just don't get a lot of love from the betting public, which is why we find them catching way too many points here. That's proven by the fact that they've gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite being an underdog in all five contests.

John Fox is 25-9 ATS in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached.  Fox is 10-2 ATS in road games off an upset win as a road underdog in all games he has coached, so he knows how to carry the momentum over with his teams.  Jeff Fisher is 16-35 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points in all games he has coached.  Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +5

Yes, the Baltimore Ravens are coming off their bye week, but at 2-6 they have nothing to play for at this point.  The Cincinnati Bengals are 8-0 within their division while the Steelers are 5-3.  They aren't going to come back and challenge either team within the division, and they are pretty much out of the wildcard race unless they were to go 8-0.  With the lack of talent they have, they know it's not going to happen.

The Ravens now have arguably the worst receiving corps in the NFL after losing star WR Steve Smith to a season-ending Achilles injury.  He suffered the injury in a 29-26 home win over the lowly Chargers last week.  The other win the Ravens got came back on October 1 by a final of 23-20 against a Steelers team that was without Ben Roethlisberger and starting Michael Vick for the first time on a short week on a Thursday.

So, both of Baltimore's wins have come by just 3 points.  In fact, all eight Ravens games this year were decided by 8 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer.  That's a big reason why I believe we are getting such great value here with the Jaguars +5.  I also like the fact that the Jaguars are playing their best football of the season coming in.

Jacksonville went to London and beat Buffalo 34-31 as 3-point underdogs.  It came back following its bye week and nearly upset the Jets as 7.5-point road dogs in a 23-28 loss.  The Jaguars thoroughly outplayed the Jets in that game and should have won.  They outgained them 436-290 for the game, or by 146 total yards, but they committed four turnovers to gift-wrap the game.  They held the a very good Jets rushing attack to only 29 yards on 28 carries.

Blake Bortles has made some real nice progress this season in throwing for 2,193 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  He should continue to find plenty of success against this awful Ravens defense that is giving up 26.7 points and 383.6 yards per game.  The Ravens rank 29th in the league against the pass, allowing 283.9 yards per game through the air.  They have yielded 290-plus passing yards in five of their last seven contests.

Yes, the Jaguars are also 2-6, but their outlook is much greater.  They only trail the Colts by two games for first place in the AFC South.  Plus, the Colts just lost QB Andrew Luck for a few games due to injury.  So they have a realistic chance of coming back and winning the division.  The Jaguars are only getting outgained by an average of 3.3 yards per game this season, so this team is better than their 2-6 record suggests.

Plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, in November games are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS over the alst 10 seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 84-40 (67.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record, and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Jacksonville.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee Titans +6

At 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season, the Carolina Panthers could not have gotten off to a better start.  But now we enter the second half of the season, and the Panthers have created expectations for themselves from the betting public that they simply cannot live up to going forward.  That starts this week as they are massive 6-point road favorites over the Tennessee Titans.

The Panthers are coming off four huge wins over the Seahawks, Eagles, Colts and Packers, and I cannot help but think they are gassed after those games.  They beat the top two Super Bowl contenders coming into the season, and now they have a feeling of satisfaction.  They also have a two-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South, so I expect them to take their foot off the gas this week.

The Titans are undervalued due to their 2-6 start this season.  Most teams at 2-6 wouldn't have a shot at the playoffs, but the Titans actually do.  They are only two games behind the Colts in the AFC South.  They picked up a season-saving win last week behind interim coach Mike Mularkey.  They won 34-28 at New Orleans as 6.5-point underdogs, and I look for them to build off that momentum this week.

The Titans have been very competitive at home even though they're 0-4.  Three of their four losses came by 3 points or less to Indianapolis (33-35), Buffalo (13-14) and Atlanta (7-10).  They did have a 10-38 loss to the Dolphins, but Marcus Mariota was injured early in that game and they committed four turnovers as he tried playing through the pain, but was ineffective.  Mariota sat out the next two games, which were losses to the Falcons and Texans.

But Mariota returned last week against the Saints to lead the Titans to a whopping 483 yards of total offense.  This offense is so much better with him at the helm, it's not even close.  He is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,610 yards (8.0/attempt) and 13 touchdowns against five interceptions.

One thing that's getting overlooked here is that the Titans have actually been better than the Panthers statistically on defense.  The Titans rank 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 329.0 yards per game.  The Panthers rank 14th in yielding 350.0 yards per game.  The Panthers are only outgaining teams by 8.9 yards per game this year, which isn't the sign of a team that should be 8-0.  To compare, the Titans are outgaining teams by 2.5 yards per game, which is a mark that signifies better than a 2-6 team.

Plays against favorites (CAROLINA) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Off that huge win over the Packers last week, it's only human nature for the Panthers to suffer a letdown here.  I expect an outright upset by Tennessee, but I'll take the points for some insurance.  Take the Titans Sunday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -2.5

Everyone is on the Oklahoma bandwagon right now due to how dominant it has been in going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. That’s evident by the fact that this line opened at Baylor -5 and has already been bet down to Baylor -2.5. There is a ton of money coming in on the Sooners right now to say the least. They have taken care of lesser opponents in Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State in their last four games.

But in their only game against the best opponent they’ve faced in Tennessee, the Sooners needed to erase a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit and were fortunate to escape with a 31-24 (OT) victory. They also had that ugly 17-24 loss to Texas in which they were outgained by 90 yards. The Sooners have to face the three best teams in the Big 12 still in Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State over their final three games. Their true colors will show on the road this week as Bob Stoops just doesn't win big games any more.

Baylor isn’t getting much love right now because it lost Seth Russell and only beat Kansas State 31-24 last week. But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bears led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing a couple garbage touchdowns late. Garbage touchdowns aren’t going to work for Oklahoma with this 2.5-point spread. Plus, Baylor gets an extra two days to prepare after playing last Thursday.

True freshman Jarrett Stidham more than held his own against Kansas State in a tough road environment in his first start. He threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score. But this guy doesn’t get rattled and has been superb while getting a chance to play in all eight games this year due the fact that Baylor has been in so many blowouts, outscoring opponents by 32.4 PPG on average.

Stidham is completing 77 percent of his passes for 750 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. He’s not a downgrade from Russell at all, and nearly beat him out in fall camp.  Art Briles has been raving about Stidham for good reason as he was one of the top rated QB's in the country coming out of high school as Phil Steele had him at No. 5.

Baylor’s toughest games are all ahead as well, but this team is getting punished a lot more than Oklahoma for its schedule by the voters. The fact of the matter is that the Bears have been dominant even though they’ve played an easy schedule. They lead the nation with 57.4 points and 665.6 yards pre game. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up 25.0 points, 388.4 yards per game and 5.0 per play. And a lot of those points and yards have come in garbage time with the game already decided and the backups in, otherwise the numbers would be even better.

Waco is becoming one of the toughest places to play in the country. Baylor is 29-1 at home over the past five seasons, and 26-7 ATS in its last 33 home games overall. It has won its last two home meetings with Oklahoma by finals of 41-12 (2013) as 17-point favorites and 45-38 (2011) as 16.5-point underdogs. Don’t forget, the Bears went into Norman last year and won 48-14 as 5.5-point underdogs. They outgained the Sooners 544-319 for the game.

Baylor has outscored Oklahoma a combined 89-26 in their two meetings over the past two seasons.  And the scary part is that this is the best team that Baylor has ever had now.  This team remembers all of the bad years as the Big 12 punching bags and wants to return the favor with its continued dominance of Oklahoma in the recent history in this series.

Baylor is 9-1 ATS after leading in its last two games by 14-plus points at the half over the last two seasons. The Bears are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Oklahoma is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. The Bears are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games with a total set of 70 or more points.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon +10

Stanford is getting a lot of hype right now because it is a playoff contender and it has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Teams on long ATS winning streaks like this are almost always overvalued. That’s reflected in this line with the fact that Stanford is a 10-point favorite over Oregon. I believe there is value in backing the Ducks catching double-digits on the road in this huge rivalry game. They would love nothing more than to spoil the Cardinal’s playoff bid, and they still have an outside shot of winning the division if they win out, so they will be plenty motivated.

It’s clear to me that Oregon hasn’t packed it in at all. It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 26-20 at Washington and 61-55 at Arizona State outright as underdogs in both games before putting together its most complete performance of the season in a 44-28 home victory over California last week. This game was a bigger blowout than even that final score showed as the Ducks racked up a season-high 777 total yards while holding the Bears to 432, outgaining them by 345 yards.

It’s a shame that Vernon Adams wasn’t healthy earlier this year in losses to Michigan State, Utah and Washington State. He played through injury in the loss to Michigan State, was knocked out early in the Utah game, and did not play at all against Washington State. But ever since Adams returned healthy, this has been a completely different Ducks team. It’s why they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Adams has thrown for 1,468 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 145 yards and two scores. Offense hasn’t been the issue for the Ducks, who are scoring 42.2 points and averaging 543.6 yards per game. Adams alone can keep the Ducks in this game while matching Kevin Hogan score for score.  He has thrown for at least 300 passing yards in three consecutive games and now faces the weakness of the Stanford team, which is its secondary.

One thing that stands out to me that really shows how much value we are getting with the Ducks is the spreads in recent games in this series. The Ducks have been favored in 11 of their last 13 meetings with Stanford. They were only 2.5-point underdogs both times they were not favored, and they won both of those games outright. You have to go all the way back to 1992 to find the last time that Stanford was favored by double-digits in this series.

Oregon is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following three straight conference games. The Ducks are 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. They have a knack for getting better as the season goes along, and that has been the case again in 2015. Oregon is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a sinning record. The Ducks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Oregon is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games. The Ducks are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Oregon Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +7.5

The LSU Tigers suffered a devastating loss to Alabama last week. Its going to be very tough for this team to come back emotionally and physically a week later. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat now that they have all but been eliminated from playoff contention as they no longer control their own destiny. That’s going to make it very tough for them to cover this 7.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Arkansas relishes the role of spoiler. It did the same thing last year with back-to-back shutouts of ranked Ole Miss and LSU teams as it was fighting to become bowl eligible. The Razorbacks are fighting for that again as they sit at 5-4 and could gain bowl eligibility this week with a win. They’d love nothing more then to kick LSU while it’s down this week.

Arkansas went into Ole Miss and came away with a 53-52 road win last week to spoil the Rebels’ bid to win the SEC West. The Rebels had controlled their own destiny, and if they won out, they would have been division champs. But Brandon Allen and company were clutch late once again, earning their second overtime victory in three weeks. They also beat Auburn in four overtimes by a final of 54-46 three weeks ago.

This is an Razorbacks offense that is hitting on all cycliners right now. They scored 54 points and amassed 457 total yards against Auburn, 63 points and 591 yards against Tennessee-Martin, and 53 points and 615 yards against Ole Miss. Those numbers have obviously led to a 3-0 run over their last three games as they are once again playing their best football in the second half of the season.

LSU was way overrated coming into that Alabama game last week because it had played a very favorable schedule up to that point. Five of its first seven games were at home, and it wasn’t impressive in its two road wins at Mississippi State (21-19) and Syracuse (34-24), either. I still don’t believe this team is as good as its getting credit for from oddsmakers here as 7.5-point favorites.

Arkansas shut out LSU 17-0 at home last year behind a dominant defensive effort. The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 total yards in the win. The Tigers only managed 36 rushing yards on 32 carries. Arkansas has been stopping the run very well again this season, allowing 129 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 180 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.

Keep in mind that the 17-0 shutout last year was on the heels of an overtime loss to Alabama for LSU.  So, the letdown spot following the Alabama game is real.  Also note that Arkansas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  In 2013, the Razorbacks were massive 28-point road underdogs in Baton Rouge.  They only lost that game 27-31 after LSU capped off a 99-yard drive TD drive with only 1:15 left on the clock.

The Razorbacks’ one weakness is their pass defense, but LSU QB Brandon Harris isn’t capable of exploiting it as he’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC. LSU is only averaging 10 completions per game and 54.4 percent completions this season. Harris is a liability, and that will be a big reason that the Razorbacks hang around for four quarters and possibly pull the upset.

Arkansas is 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 8 or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons. LSU is 10-22 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. The Tigers are 13-33 ATS in their last 46 November home games. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +29.5

First and foremost, this is a massive letdown spot for the No. 1 ranked Clemson Tigers.  They finally ended their Florida State's run as division champs last week, locking up the Atlantic Division title in the process.  It's only human nature for the Tigers to come out flat this week off such an emotional win, and I believe they will.

Secondly, Clemson is already overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking.  I took advantage last week and backed Florida State catching double-digits, which was a ridiculous line as it was.  This was a 13-13 game in the 4th quarter before the Tigers scored the final 10 points to win 23-13, but the Seminoles were never in jeopardy of not covering. 

Now oddsmakers are asking Clemson to go on the road and win this game by more than four touchdowns to cover this 29.5-point spread.  Just how rare is a 4 TD road favorite in conference games?  FSU's Jimbo Fisher has only been a 4 TD road favorite twice, Oregon in the Chip Kelly/Mark Helfrich era three times, and Bob Stoops in his 17 years at Oklahoma only four times.  Nick Saban has never been favored by four touchdowns on the road in SEC play, and Baylor hasn't laid four scores on the road in league play against anyone other than Kansas.

The difference here is that Syracuse is actually a decent team, especially at home.  The Orange are 3-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to ranked LSU and Pittsburgh teams.  They only lost 24-34 at as 23-point dogs to LSU and 20-23 as 8-point dogs to Pitt.  And this game?  This is the National Championship for the Orange, who would make their season with an upset bid here.  While that is probably unlikely, you can expect the Orange to be laying it all on the line for four quarters.  The same cannot be said for the Tigers, who think they just have to show up to win this one.

I think the injury to Syracuse starting QB Eric Dungey is being overblown here.  He suffered his third head injury of the season against Louisville last week and has been ruled out.  But that could be a blessing in disguise.  Backup QB Zach Mahoney has more than held his own.  He has thrown four touchdown passes against one interception while also providing a threat as a runner, averaging 5.7 per carry on nine attempts.

Mahoney finished off the 30-27 win over Central Michigan back on September 19.  Then, he started and played the entire game against LSU, which was arguably Syracuse's best performance of the season.  Mahoney actually threw for 154 yards and three touchdowns against that LSU defense.  He also threw a TD pass on the final possession of the game against Louisville last week after Dungey was knocked out.  This guy isn't a downgrade from Dungey one bit.

Syracuse is 17-5 ATS in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in its previous game, winning in this spot by 11.0 points per game on average.  Last year, Syracuse only lost 6-16 at Clemson as 17-point underdogs.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Clemson is 5-12-2 ATS in its last 19 road games vs a team with a losing record.  The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their five home games this year.  The Orange are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +14

This line actually opened at 8.5 in some places and has been bet all the way up to 14.  This move is clearly an overreaction from Louisville's 41-17 home win over Syracuse last week.  The betting public is quick to forget that Louisville's previous three games were far from impressive.

Indeed, it started with a 21-41 loss at Florida State as 6.5-point dogs in an absolute blowout in favor of the Seminoles.  Then, the Cardinals failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites over Boston College in a narrow 17-14 win.  The week prior to playing Syracuse, Louisville only won 20-19 at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Wake Forest and Boston College both are worse teams than this underrated Virginia squad.

Virginia is undervalued right now due to its 3-6 record this year.  But this team has been better than its record would indicate with a ton of narrow losses this season.  The Cavaliers only lost 27-34 at home to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs after a last-second TD by the Fighting Irish.  They also only lost on the road to a ranked Pitt team 19-26 as 8-point dogs, at ranked UNC 13-26 as 16-point dogs, and at Miami 21-27 as 6.5-points dogs.

In fact, the Cavaliers are 3-0-1 against the spread on the road this season.  They lost by 18 to UCLA, by 13 to UNC, by 7 to Pitt and by 6 to Miami.  I would ranked UCLA and UNC as better teams than Louisville, and Pitt and Miami as near equals to the Cardinals.  Even in that 13-point loss to UNC, the Cavaliers committed five turnovers and gave the game away.  Yet they still only lost by 13 with those five turnovers.

Virginia still realistically believes it can make a bowl game with a win Saturday.  That's entirely possible because the Cavaliers host both Duke and Virginia Tech to close out the season, which are two very beatable teams.  So the Cavaliers won't be lacking any motivation this week.  They won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs to Louisville last year.  I look for them to give the Cardinals a run for their money again in the rematch.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games with a total set between 42.5 and 49.  With the total set at 47.5 this week, oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair.  That certainly favored the underdog catching 14 points here in what should be a closely-contested battle throughout.  The Cavaliers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. winning teams.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* College Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ohio State/Illinois OVER 55

Ohio State is coming off an ugly, low-scoring affair in a 28-14 win over Minnesota last week.  That low output from both teams has the oddsmakers setting this total lower than it should be.  This is one of my favorite college football totals of the season as Ohio State may score 55 points on its own.

Cardale Jones had to start at QB for Ohio State last week due to a 1-game suspension of J.T. Barrett.  Jones struggled again, which he has all season, so it was no surprise.  But Barrett is going to return this week, and it's well documented how much better this Ohio State offense has been with him at the helm.

Barrett has only started one game this season, which was a 49-7 win at Rutgers.  He completed 14 of 18 passes for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing 13 times for 101 yards and two more scores.  I expect him to have a monster day Saturday as he is out to make amends to his team for his lack in judgment in getting suspended in the first place.

Illinois is going to do its part in helping aid this OVER.  The Fighting Illini are coming off their best offensive output of the season, scoring 48 points and racking up 595 yards of total offense in a win over Purdue last week.  They rushed for 382 yards as a team, and stud RB Josh Ferguson played his first game since October 3, carrying 12 times for 133 yards in the win.  Having Ferguson back healthy for this offense I believe is getting overlooked here.

Just look at the last three meetings between these teams, and you'll love the OVER as well.  Ohio State and Illinois have combined for 69, 95 and 74 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 79.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points more than today's posted total of 55.

Ohio State has done most of the heavy lifting in those three games over the past three seasons.  It scored 55 points and gained 545 yards last year, scored 60 points and gained 591 yards in 2013, and scored 52 points and gained 567 yards in 2012.  As you can see, it has nearly covered the 55-point total itself in these three games.  But Illinois has its best offense in quite some time this year with QB Wes Lunt throwing for 2,000 yards with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions this year.

Ohio State is 9-1 to the OVER after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (at least 4.8 YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 37-9 (80.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +15

This is the first time since 2013 that Northwestern has been a double-digit Big Ten favorite.  They lost outright the last time they were laying this kind of weight in a conference game.  With wins over Nebraska and Penn State by a combined four points in their last two games, the betting public is back to overvaluing this the Wildcats this week laying more than two touchdowns to Purdue.

At the same time, Purdue comes in undervalued after getting crushed at home by Illinois last week 48-14.  The betting public is quick to forget that Purdue beat Nebraska 55-45 at home the previous week as 7.5-point underdogs.  David Blough is a good young quarterback, and he threw for 274 yards and four TDs in that win over the Huskers.

What I really like about this play is that Purdue has gone on the road and covered the spread against Michigan State and Wisconsin already this season, and both of those teams are better than Northwestern.  Purdue only lost 21-24 at Michigan State as 23-point underdogs and 7-24 at Wisconsin as identical 23-point dogs.

It's tough for teams with such poor offenses like Northwestern to put away teams by double-digits.  The Wildcats are only averaging 21.1 points and 338.9 yards per game this year.  Take out their 41-point effort against Eastern Illinois, and they are only putting up 18.6 points per game.  They have been held to an average of 281.4 yards per game and 4.2 per play in Big Ten action.

Yes, Northwestern won 38-14 at Purdue last year, but this is a much better Purdue team than last year's version.  Plus, the Boilermakers gave that game away by committing five turnovers.  In their last trip to Evanston, the Boilermakers won 20-17 outright as 8-point underdogs.  I wouldn't rule out the outright upset here, either.

Pat Fitzgerald is only 12-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Northwestern.  Fitzgerald is 3-14 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse as the coach of the Wildcats.  The Boilermakers are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Northwestern is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games, which includes a 24-19 win over lowly Ball State as 17.5-point favorites this year.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

15* USC/Colorado ESPN 2 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59

USC features one of the best offenses in the country and will score at will on this Colorado defense.  The Trojans are averaging 37.4 points and 480.1 yards per game this season.  They'll be up against a Colorado defense that's giving up 36.2 points and 486.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play.

Colorado does have an underrated offense that is putting up 27.9 points and 425.0 yards per game this season.  The Buffaloes have put up 31 points on Arizona and 31 pints on UCLA this year, and they can find some success against a USC defense that is allowing 29.0 points per game in its last four contests.

But what really makes me like this OVER is the recent history between these teams.  USC and Colorado combined for 86 points in a 56-28 Trojans' victory last year, and 76 points in a 47-29 Trojans' win two years ago.  Cody Kessler threw seven touchdown passes against this Colorado defense last season.

Colorado is 9-1 to the OVER when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last two seasons.  We're seeing an average of 74.0 points per game scored in these games.  Three of USC's four games have seen 66 or more combined points since offensive coordinator Clay Helton was promoted to head coach.  Four of Colorado's six games in Pac-12 play have seen 65 or more combined points.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Bills/Jets AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York -2.5

The Jets are going to want revenge from getting embarrassed by the Bills in both meetings last season. The good news is that they now have the talent to get that revenge as they are a much more complete squad this year. They have gotten off to a 5-3 start this season and are a legitimate playoff contender due to their improved offense and lockdown defense.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was one of the best signings of the entire offseason from any team. He is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,790 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He was knocked out of the game early in their loss to the Raiders two weeks ago, but returned last week to throw for 274 yards and two touchdowns without an interception to lead the Jets to a 28-23 win over the Jaguars at home.

Fitzpatrick leads an underrated Jets offense that actually ranks 11th at 365.9 yards per game. The Jets are also 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 323.2 yards per game. They rank 6th in the league in yardage differential at +42.6 yards per game. The Bills are only 18th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. They average 350.5 on offense and give up 353.3 on defense.

I believe this line is lower than it should be for the simple fact that the Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games. But they were in bad spots in both games. They had to travel out to the West Coast to face Oakland a week after a heartbreaking loss to New England that had to be tough to recover from. Then they faced a Jacksonville team last week that was coming off its bye week, yet still won 28-23 as 7.5-point favorites.

At the same time, Buffalo is overvalued due to its 33-17 win over Miami last week. That game was closer than the final score as the Bills only outgained the Dolphins by 23 yards. The Bills were also in a good spot last week because they were coming off their bye week. I just can’t help but think this line is lower than it should be due to recent results against the spread for both teams.

But I’m not nearly as forgiving as the betting public is over one good performance from the Bills that followed poor outings. Remember, the Bills lost three of their previous four games before that win over Miami. They were blown out by both the Giants (10-24) and Bengals (21-34) at home, and they also lost to the Jaguars (31-34) in London. Their only win during that stretch was extremely fortunate in a 14-13 win at Tennessee. They trailed 10-0 until the end of the 3rd quarter and were outgained by 67 yards by the Titans.

New York has taken care of business at home this season, going 3-1 while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Its only home loss came back in Week 3 in a 17-24 setback to Philadelphia. But the Jets gave that game away by committing four turnovers. Those turnovers, plus an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles, were the difference. The Jets actually outgained the Eagles by 92 yards in that game, and they’ve outgained six of their eight opponents this year.

Buffalo is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 games off a home win over a division opponent. The Bills are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games following a win by 10 points or more over a division foe as well. The Jets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite. The Bills are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

15* VA Tech/GA Tech ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 53.5

While I don’t see a ton of value in the spread as both teams have been wildly inconsistent and unpredictable this season, I do believe there is value with the UNDER 53.5 points in this game. Neither team has lit it up offensively this season, but both feature better-than-average defenses. And their familiarity with one another is what makes the under such a great play.

Virginia Tech is giving up 24.3 points and 345 yards per game this season, while Georgia Tech is allowing 26.1 points and 365 yards per game. The Hokies are holding opposing offenses to 27 yards below their season averages, while the Yellow Jackets are holding foes to 39 yards below their season averages. Both teams are only average offensively with the Hokies putting up 373 yards per game and the Yellow Jackets 403 yards per game.

You have to consider that Virginia Tech’s defensive numbers would be even better and its offensive numbers even worse if not for a 3-OT thriller against Duke two games back. This was a 24-24 game at the end of regulation before the Blue Devils eventually won 45-43. Aside from that game, VA Tech held Pitt to 13 points, NC State to 13, and Boston College to 10 in three of its past five contests.

Georgia Tech has been improving defensively as the season has gone on. It held Florida State to just 16 points and 280 total yards two games ago, which is no small feat. This team is desperate to win its final three games to keep its bowl streak alive. I look for the Yellow Jackets to play another inspired effort defensively at home in this one and to shut down this lackluster VA Tech offense.

The head-to-head history in recent years tells the story. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have combined for 51 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings. They’ve combined for 51, 27, 37, 63, 49, 51, 37 and 30 points in the last eight meetings, respectively. That’s an average of 43.1 combined points per game, which is more than 10 points less than this posted total of 53.5.  That's why there's so much value with this UNDER tonight.

Virginia Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons. Georgia Tech is 21-8 UNDER in its last 29 Thursday games. The UNDER is 18-3 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hokies last five games following a bye week. Both teams have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, which certainly favors the defenses and will aid the UNDER here.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +3

This is a Western Michigan team that I picked to win the MAC this season with all they had returning. They had 16 starters back and were a loss to NIU in the season finale away from playing in the title game last year. So far, they haven’t disappointed this season, going 5-0 within the conference and needing to keep winning to make sure that they aren’t left out this season.

Offensively, the Broncos have been explosive, averaging 38.0 points, 485.8 yards per game and 6.9 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.9 points, 425 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Zach Terrell is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 2,369 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions this season.  The Broncos also average 208 rushing yards per game, and their balance offensively will be key in keeping Matt Johnson and the Bowling Green offense off the field.

Bowling Green also has an explosive offense, but the difference in this game is going to be defense. Western Michigan is much better on that side of the ball, giving up 389.2 yards per game. Bowling Green is allowing 434.2 yards per game this season for comparison’s sake. I simply look for the Broncos to get more stops in this one and for that to be the difference.

Both teams are coming off blowout wins last week. Western Michigan beat Ball State 54-7, while Bowling Green thumped Ohio 62-24. The difference is that the Broncos’ game was actually a blowout, while the Falcons’ game was not. WMU outgained Ball State 711-152 for the game, or by a ridiculous 559 total yards. Bowling Green only outgained Ohio 581-543, or by 38 total yards. That game against the Bobcats was much closer than the final score showed.  Keep in mind that Western Michigan beat Ohio 49-14 on the road, outgaining the Bobcats by 213 yards in the process.  Ohio is the lone common opponent between these teams.

It has been a long string of dominance for the Broncos, who have won five straight coming into this one dating back to their 41-39 home win over Central Michigan. They went on to beat Ohio 49-14 on the road while outgaining them by 213 yards, beat Miami Ohio 35-13 at home, beat Eastern Michigan 58-28 on the road, and beat Ball State 54-7 at home. The only losses the Broncos have suffered this year have come against three of the better teams in the country in Michigan State, Georgia Southern and Ohio State.

Western Michigan has owned Bowling Green in recent years, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Broncos topped the Falcons 26-14 on the road last year while outgaining them 361-274. Terrell threw two touchdown passes while Javion Franklin rushed for 149 yards and a score in the win. The Broncos held the Falcons to just 274 total yards and 14 first downs. Their better defense will be the difference in this game as well.

Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 10-1 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Western Michigan Wednesday.

20* Toledo/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan +4.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas have been underrated all season and they are again here as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets. They come in with an impressive 5-4 record when you consider how tough their schedule has been, which includes a tremendous 8-1 record against the spread. That right there just shows how undervalued this team has been all season.

I like the fact that the Chippewas have extra time to prepare for this game. They last played on October 31, while Toledo played last Tuesday on November 3. The Rockets suffered a devastating 27-32 loss to Northern Illinois that is likely going to keep them out of the MAC Title game. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat and to not put their best foot forward this week.

Central Michigan’s four losses have come against four very good teams in Oklahoma State (13-24) as 21-point dogs, Syracuse (27-30) as 8-point dogs, Michigan State (10-30) as 25.5-point dogs and Western Michigan (39-41) as 5-point dogs. Three of those four losses came on the road. They actually outgained Western Michigan by five yards, Michigan State by 16 yards, and Syracuse by 194 yards. They were only outgained by 77 yards by Oklahoma State, which is 9-0 and a playoff contender. Those results just show what the Chippewas are capable of.

Central Michigan is 3-0 in its last three home games with double-digit wins over Monmouth (31-10), Northern Illinois (29-19) and Buffalo (51-14). So, the Rockets and Chippewas have a common opponent in Northern Illinois. Both of them played the Huskies at home with the Chippewas winning by 10 and the Rockets losing by 5.

I just simply believe that Toledo is one of the most overrated teams in the country. That’s why I faded the Rockets last week as 7.5-point favorites over Northern Illinois. They were getting too much credit for their wins over Arkansas and Iowa State earlier this season. They shouldn’t have won either of those games as they were outgained by 197 yards by the Razorbacks and by 172 yards by the Cyclones. I believe they’re still getting too much credit for their 7-1 record and those two wins.

Central Michigan has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Cooper Rush, who is completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 2,626 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has put up those numbers against a much tougher schedule than Toledo has had to face this season. This defense is also underrated. The Chippewas are only giving up 21.7 points, 318 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.1 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) – off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1992. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games. The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Central Michigan is 44-20-2 ATS in its last 66 games following an ATS win.  Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.

15* Bears/Chargers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +4.5

Neither of these teams have gotten off to the start that they wanted. Both could easily be better than what they are with some better fortune in close games as the Bears are just 2-5 while the Chargers are 2-6. I believe there’s a good chance this game is close as well, which is why there’s some nice line value with getting the Bears as 4.5-point underdogs in this one.

The Bears are dealing with a couple injuries, mainly to Matt Forte, but otherwise are relatively healthy. But the Chargers are a complete mash unit right now. Almost half of their starters are hurt right now and either out or questionable. That includes WR Keenan Allen, T King Dunlap, CB Brandon Flowers, DE Corey Liuget, TE Ladarius Green, S Eric Weddle, LB Denzel Perryman, G Orlando Franklin and LB Manti Te’o. With so many injuries to key players, the Chargers just cannot be trusted to cover this 4-point spread.

The Chargers have just had a knack for playing in close games because their defense cannot stop anyone. Seven of their eight games have been decided by 8 points or less, with the lone exception being a 14-31 loss at Minnesota. Their only two wins have come against Detroit (33-28) and Cleveland (30-27) at home, and we know how bad those teams have been this season with the Lions at 1-7 and the Browns at 2-7.

The Chargers rank 27th in scoring defense at 28.4 points per game allowed and 31st in yards per play at 6.3 allowed. The Bears have actually been respectable defensively, ranking 9th in the league in total defense at 342.3 yards per game allowed. I bet there aren’t too many people out there that realize John Fox has turned this into a Top 10 defense, but that’s a fact.

I really like this matchup for the Bears, who rank 4th in the NFL against the pass (214.3 yards/game). The Chargers only throw the football and aren’t a threat to run as they rank 1st in the NFL in passing (336.9 yards/game) and 29th in rushing (86.4 yards/game). The Bears have actually held five opponents to less than 200 passing yards. They only gave up 189 to the Packers, 185 to the Cardinals, and 173 to the Raiders, which are three of the better passing offenses in the NFL.

The season-ending injury to Keenan Allen cannot be overstated. He was by far the biggest playmaker on this San Diego offense up to this point. Allen has 67 receptions for 725 yards and four touchdowns this year. Danny Woodhead is 2nd on the team in receiving with 39 receptions for 443 yards and two scores, and he’s a running back. So the loss of Allen is absolutely huge because he was Rivers’ comfort blanket on third down. There is no replacement for him on this roster.

Chicago’s last four games have all been decided by a field goal or less. I could easily see that streak extending to five here, but I actually like their chances to win now that Jay Cutler has his best weapon in Alshon Jeffery back. The offense has thrived in the three games with Jeffery. The Bears racked up 402 yards with Jeffery in the lineup in Week 1 against the Packers, 444 yards in Week 7 against the Vikings, and 305 yards in Week 8 against the Vikings. That output against Minnesota wasn’t great, but the Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Jeffery has 23 receptions for 341 yards and two touchdowns in two-plus games this year.

The Bears are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS against the Chargers in their last six meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 83-40 (67.5%) ATS since 1983. San Diego is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The Chargers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. The Bears are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. AFC West opponents.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* Broncos/Colts AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR Indianapolis +5.5

The Denver Broncos are overvalued here due to their 29-10 win over the Packers last week. They were out to prove their doubters wrong in that game, and they did a great job of it. But now they are in a massive letdown spot here against the Colts a week later.  They are also laying too many points because the public is putting too much stock into that win over the Packers. Had they not won that game, they would only be a 3-point favorite or less in this game, which is where the value comes in with this 5.5-point spread.

The Colts are undervalued right now because they have lost three straight and are just 1-5 with Andrew Luck as their starting quarterback. But their last three losses have all come by seven points or less, so they have had some poor fortune in close games for the first time in a long time. The Colts are extremely motivated for a victory to turn their season around, and it starts this week against the Broncos.

I like the fight I saw from the Colts last week against the unbeaten Panthers. Things weren’t going great for them for three quarters, but they found a way to come back with 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and overtime to take a 26-23 lead. They would eventually lose the game to the Panthers, who kicked two straight field goals thereafter to win 29-26. But this team can build from that loss.

I also like that head coach Chuck Pagano fired offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton. The Colts were supposed to be a more run-oriented offense this season, but Hamilton wasn’t following script. Look for new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski to get back to running the ball and taking pressure off of Andrew Luck. He was Cleveland’s head coach in 2013 and also coached Cam Newton in Carolina. He knows the importance of establishing a running game, especially when he has Frank Gore at his disposal.

Indianapolis has had Denver’s number with Andrew Luck. It is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings. It won 39-33 at home in 2013, lost 24-31 as 8-point road dogs in 2014, and then pulled the 24-13 road upset as 9.5-point dogs in the playoffs last year. The Broncos were also 6-0 when they went into Lucas Oil Stadium in 2013, and obviously they left with that 33-39 loss.

This is a classic buy low, sell high situation.  We're selling high on all of the great news coming out of Denver right now with their 7-0 start and their win over the Packers, coupled with their addition of Vernon Davis, who won't play a big role in this game after getting traded from the 49ers.  We're also buying low on the Colts, who are coming off three straight losses, and that has prompted rumblings about head coach Chuck Pagano's job status.

Plays against favorites (DENVER) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. As you can see, teams coming off upset wins like the one the Broncos had last week do not usually fare well the next week. This is simply because it’s hard to get up for the next game after such a big win. The Colts will be ready to play Sunday, and the Broncos will have a hard time matching their intensity level.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They should not be a home underdog to the New York Giants with the way they are playing right now.  They have won two of their last three games overall, including a 23-20 win at Atlanta last week.  They also beat Jacksonville 38-31 at home.  Their only loss was a 30-31 setback at Washington after they blew a 24-0 lead.  They actually outgained the Redskins by 124 yards in that game.

Tampa Bay put up a stinker in its opener against Tennessee, but it has been a much improved team ever since.  It has outgained four of its last six opponents.  It even outgained the unbeaten Carolina Panthers by 167 yards at home despite losing that game.  It went on the road and beat New Orleans 26-19 as well, and that was with a healthy Drew Brees.  So this team has shown me enough to know they can beat just about anyone and play with anyone.

The Giants, on the other hand, are extremely fortunate to be 4-4 right now.  It's embarrassing that head coach Tom Coughlin believes they should have won last week against New Orleans.  They  were outgained by 192 yards and their defense gave up 614 total yards, including 511 passing.  They were fortunate to beat the Cowboys 27-20 at home two weeks earlier as they were outgained by 171 yards in that game.  They were also outgained by 181 yards in their 7-27 loss at Philadelphia three weeks ago.

In fact, the Giants have been outgained in seven of their eight games this season.  They only exception was a 30-27 home win over San Francisco, and that victory looks even worse now because of how poor the 49ers are playing.  They needed a last-second touchdown to beat them.  The Giants rank 31st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 75.0 yards per game.  Only the 49ers have been worse.

The reason the Giants have been able to scrounge out a .500 record to this point is because they are plus-11 in turnover differential, which is the best mark in the league.  There is a ton of luck involved with turnovers, and that has help mask some of the inefficiencies of this team.  The Giants rank last in the NFL in total defense (427.5 yards/game) and last against the pass (315.4 yards/game).

The Giants' offense gets more credit than it deserves.  They average 352 yards per game and 5.7 per play against opposing defenses that allow 362 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  Their defense gives up 428 yards per game and 6.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 356 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  The Bucs don't get enough credit for their solid per play numbers.  Tampa Bay averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.7 per play on defense, which are both better than the Giants.

New York is just 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming at Buffalo.  The Giants are 1-10 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in their last game over the past three seasons.  They are coming back the next week to lose by an average of 16.3 points per game.  They are still probably gassed from that shootout in New Orleans, and it doesn't help that they could be without some key players in CB Prince Amukamara, TE Larry Donnell, LB Jon Beason and WR Reuben Randle.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be highly motivated for a win this week following two straight losses to the Chiefs and Bengals. They just couldn’t close the deal last week against Cincinnati despite leading almost the entire game and outgaining the Bengals by 60 yards. Ben Roethlisberger was clearly rusty in his first start back from injury, tossing three interceptions. But expect him to be back to his old self this week now that he's healthier and to come back with a much stronger performance.

Because Oakland has won two straight while Pittsburgh has lost two straight, this line is lower than it should be. The Raiders were in great spots in their last two games, catching their opponents in bad spots. They were off their bye in a 37-29 win at San Diego, while the Chargers were off a heartbreaking last-second loss to the Packers the previous week. Then last week, the Raiders caught the Jets in a hangover spot after their loss to the Patriots the previous week. But this is now a bad spot for the Raiders, who catch a pissed off Steelers team.

I’ve been very impressed with the improvement of the Steelers defense this season as they are only giving up 18.4 points per game. They have held seven of their eight opponents to 23 points or fewer, with the only exception behind the 28 points scored by the Patriots in the opener, who are scoring on everyone. The Raiders are improved offensively this year, but they are no juggernaut.

I know Le’Veon Bell is likely out for the season, but the Steelers have a capable running back in DeAngelo Williams, who is better than he gets credit for. Williams has taken advantage of his opportunities, rushing for 310 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He is also averaging 6.7 yards per reception out of the backfield and has pretty much matched Bell in terms of production when given a chance. Bell averages 4.9 yards per carry and 5.7 per reception for comparison's sake.

Roethlisberger and Williams should find plenty of holes in this Oakland defense. The Raiders are giving up 24.7 points and 385.0 yards per game. Oakland ranks 31st against the pass, giving up a whopping 302.1 passing yards per game. You can bet that Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and company are licking their chops at the opportunity to go up against this defense this week.

Oakland will be traveling out East for an early start time.  West Coast teams have not handled these situations well.  Pittsburgh has already beaten two teams from the West in San Francisco and Arizona pretty handily at home.  The Steelers won 43-18 over the 49ers and 25-13 over the Cardinals, and they were even playing without Roethlisberger in that game against Arizona.

Plays against any team (Oakland) off an upset win as a home underdog are 86-47 (64.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Oakland is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games following an upset win as a home underdog, coming back to lose by 18.8 points per game in this spot.  The Raiders aren't used to handling success and won't handle it well this week.

Pittsburgh is 53-22 ATS in its last 75 vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Oakland is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. AFC North opponents. Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS after losing two of its last three games over the past three seasons, coming back to win by 9.9 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -2.5

I’ve faded the Packers with success in each of their last two games. They only won 27-20 at home over the Chargers as 10.5-point favorites and lost 10-29 at Denver last week as 2.5-point favorites. I believed they were overvalued in both of those games, but now I’m reversing roles and believing they are undervalued as only 2.5-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers this week.

While I believe the Broncos are a legitimate Super Bowl contender with the league’s best defense, I also feel that the Panthers are one of the biggest frauds in the NFL. They may be the worst 7-0 team in the history of the league. There’s no way this team should be undefeated right now, but the fact of the matter is that they’ve had some good fortune in close games, and they clearly aren’t as good as their record.

The Panthers only rank 12th in the NFL in yardages differential, outgaining teams by just 6.5 yards per game. That’s not the kind of number you would expect from a 7-0 team. But they are 4-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They had chances to lose in all of their games this season but found a way to win them all, which is mostly luck with all of the breaks going their way late in games.

The Panthers have also benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL up to this point.  They haven't beaten a team with a winning record yet as all seven of their wins have come against teams with a .500 record or worse.  Now they will be up against the best team they have faced yet in the 6-1 Packers, and they will meet their match.

Green Bay is going to come back highly motivated this week. Aaron Rodgers hates to get embarrassed the way he did by Peyton Manning and the Broncos, and that’s going to be eating at him all week leading up to this game. Look for Mike McCarthy and company to make the proper adjustments to get this offense back to hitting on all cylinders this week.  Plus, Rodgers hasn't lost back-to-back games as a starter since 2010.  He always bounces back from losses.

Carolina doesn’t have the firepower offensively to keep up with Rodgers and company. It is only averaging 349.1 yards per game and 5.4 per play against opposing defenses that allow 361 yards per game and 5.7 per play. This is still a below-average, vanilla offense that relies too heavily on the running game to move the football.

The Panthers also aren’t as good defensively as they get credit for, and they certainly aren’t up to the level of the Broncos on this side of the ball. They have allowed 22 or more points in four of their last five games, which isn’t the sign of an elite defense. They have a lot of injuries they are dealing with on that side of the ball too with guys like Dwan Edwards, Charles Johnson and Frank Alexander out.  LB Shaq Thompson and DE Mario Addison are questionable, while C Ryan Kalil is also questionable on offense.

Last year, Green Bay throttled Carolina 38-17 at home as 6.5-point favorites. This was actually a 38-3 game with under 10 minutes to play before the Panthers put up 14 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Rodgers completed 19 of 22 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns against this Carolina defense.  He has thrown for an average of 287.0 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception in three career meetings with the Panthers.

I also like the fact that Carolina will be on short rest after playing an overtime game on Monday Night Football. That will work in the Packers’ favor here. They will not only be the more motivated team off that loss to the Broncos, they will also be the more rested and more prepared team here.

Mike McCarthy is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of Green Bay. McCarthy is 21-10 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Packers, who are coming back to win by 11.9 points per game in this spot. Ron Rivera is 2-10 ATS in home games after playing a home game as the coach of Carolina. Green Bay is 9-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the last two seasons, winning by 17.8 points per game in this spot.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington -1.5

The Washington Huskies are going to be contenders in the Pac-12 for years to come now that Chris Petersen is getting his players in place.  They may be just 4-4 this season, but from what I've seen from them, they can beat any team in the country.  They've even proven that at times this year.

The Huskies could be 7-1 right now because they've lost some heartbreakers to some very good teams in Boise State (13-16) on the road, California (24-30) at home and Oregon (20-26) at home.  Their only blowout loss came at Stanford 14-31 as 14.5-point underdogs, and even that wasn't that big of a blowout.  Plus, QB Jake Browning missed the Stanford game with a shoulder injury, but returned to throw a season-high 4 TD passes against Arizona last week.

Washington has gone on the road and beaten USC 17-12 as 17-point underdogs, which is a tremendous performance because USC is a lot better team than its record.  After some tough losses since that win, the Huskies came through with their most complete performance of the season in a 49-3 beat down of Arizona at home last week.  They racked up 468 yards of total offense while the defense forced four Arizona turnovers in the win.

Washington leads the Pac-12 in scoring defense, giving up just 20.4 points per game in conference play.  Arizona had been averaging 41.8 points before being held to just a field goal last week.  Now the Huskies will be up against one of the worst offenses they've played in Utah.

The Utes are so predictable offensively because they rely on Devontae Booker too much.  Booker averages 156.0 yards from scrimmage, accounting for 43.2 percent of the team's scrimmage yards.  His 232 touches leads the nation.  But because the Utes continue to get shaky QB play from Travis Wilson, I cannot take them seriously.

They are very fortune to be 7-1 this season.  The Utes have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season by USC, Cal, Utah State and Michigan.  They are only outgaining opponents by an average of 24.3 yards per game on the season, which isn't what you'd expect from a 7-1 team.  They struggled to put away Oregon State last week before getting a couple late scores to win 27-12 as 26-point home favorites.

The numbers really show that Washington is the better team in this one.  The Huskies average 5.9 yards per play on offense against opposing defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play.  The Huskies only give up 4.8 yards per play against opponents that average 6.1 per play.  Utah averages 5.6 yards per play on offense against defenses that allow 5.4 per play.  The Utes allow 5.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 5.8 per play.  Utah has never beaten Washington as Pac-12 opponents.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oregon State +17.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Oregon State Beavers.  They are just 2-6 on the season and 0-5 in Pac-12 play.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set their numbers higher than they should be here of late. I took advantage by backing them as 26-point road underdogs against Utah last week, and I'll back them again as 17.5-point home dogs against UCLA this week.

What I see from this Oregon State outfit is an improving team as the season goes on.  The Beavers should have beaten Colorado in a 13-17 home loss.  They outgained the Buffaloes by 73 yards and held them to just 328 yards of total offense.  That's the same Colorado team that only lost 31-35 at home to UCLA as 23.5-point underdogs last week.  The Buffaloes even outgained the Bruins by a whopping 154 total yards and should have won that game.

Then last week against the No. 3 ranked team in the country in Utah, Oregon State put up a fight for four quarters on the road.  The Beavers eventually lost 12-27 as 26-point underdogs, but this was a 24-12 game with eight minutes to play.  They were only outgained 312-372 by the Utes for their second straight strong defensive performance.  Their defense will keep them in this game against UCLA, too.

No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than UCLA.  The Bruins were already without star LB Myles Jack and leading tackler Isaako Savaiinaea, but then inside linebacker Kenny Young had to leave the Colorado game with an upper-body injury.  Josh Woods, a freshman who had been on track to redshirt, was then pressed into action for the first time before suffering hamstring injury.  The injuries just keep coming, especially to the LB corps.

"Man, the injuries have reached just comical proportions," said Deon Hollins, who returned against Colorado after missing one game because of a knee injury.  "I've never seen it," receiver Jordan Payton said. "I haven't even heard of something like this before. It's crazy, but that is a part of football. We play a game with a 100 percent injury rate, so it's going to happen."

Those injuries left UCLA able to only run two defenses for most of the game against Colorado.  The Buffaloes' offense officially ran a school-record 114 plays, one shy of the FBS single-game record.  So the Bruins were on the field for most of the game, and I don't believe they'll be fully recovered in time to face the Beavers this week after giving up 554 total yards to the Buffaloes.

Oregon State is a run-first team that is averaging 179 rushing yards per game this season.  That bodes well for the Beavers.  The Bruins have struggled to stop the run due to all of the injuries at linebacker.  They rank last in the Pac-12 and in the bottom 20 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (208), and that total has ballooned to 245.8 yards in conference play.  So the Beavers will be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack, which will help them easily stay within this 17.5-point spread.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years as each of the last four meetings between UCLA and Oregon State have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON ST) - after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  UCLA is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bruins are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* TCU/Oklahoma State Big 12 Battle of Unbeatens on TCU -5

The TCU Horned Frogs are getting the shaft once again from the playoff committee with the release of the first rankings on November 3. Despite going 12-1 last year with their only loss to Baylor by 3 points on the road, and opening 8-0 this year, they are only No. 8 in the playoff rankings. Look for them to take out their frustration on the Oklahoma State Cowboys this weekend to come away with a blowout victory.

Sure, the Horned Frogs have some close road wins this season over Minnesota, Texas Tech and Kansas State. But none of those three places are easy atmospheres. Plus, the Horned Frogs were banged up big-time defensively in all three of those games. But their defense is slowly getting healthy, and now it’s starting to play up to the level that it did last year.

In fact, TCU has only allowed 10 points in the last seven quarters to Iowa State and West Virginia. After falling behind 21-14 to Iowa State, it held the Cyclones scoreless for the final three quarters to pull away for a 45-21 road win. Last week, the Horned Frogs put together their most complete performance yet in a 40-10 home win over West Virginia. They outgained the Mountaineers 616-327 for the game.  The Mountaineers had 27 consecutive games of at least 350 total yards snapped in that loss.  They were averaging 486 yards per game coming in.

The Horned Frogs' last four opponents have only scored a combined 17 points after halftime, so Gary Patterson and company are making some serious adjustments at the break that have paid big dividends.  The Horned Frogs have used 16 first-time starters this year on defense, so their depth is really improving as the season goes alone.

Starting seniors Davion Pierson and Mike Tuaua have been back on the right side of the defensive line after both missed three games.  Pierson is the most experienced starter with 35 career starts, 10 more than senior safety Derrick Kindred.  ''Like a spark, he comes back with all this energy, his craziness. We just feed of him, great to have him back,'' defensive tackle Aaron Curry said of Pierson. ''He has this energy about him that everybody feeds off.''

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both teams have faced Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech and West Virginia this season. TCU is 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 20.8 points per game and outgaining them by 220.3 yards per game. Oklahoma State is also 4-0 against those four teams, but it is only outscoring them by 7.3 points per game, and outgaining them by 45.8 yards per game. TCU has been 13.5 PPG and 174 YPG better than Oklahoma State in those four games.  It’s clear by those numbers that the Horned Frogs are the superior team.

Oklahoma State will be a little gassed from the shootout it played at Texas Tech last week. It needed a 42-15 second half to beat the Red Raiders 70-53. The Cowboys won’t be able to match the energy of the Horned Frogs, who breezed to a 40-10 win at West Virginia last Thursday. That means they will have an extra two days of rest prior to this weekend’s game.

Last year, TCU crushed Oklahoma State 42-9 at home in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Horned Frogs outgained the Cowboys 676-258 for the game, or by 418 total yards.  Trevone Boykin threw for 410 yards, including 225 and two touchdowns to stud receiver Josh Doctson, who is having a monster year again in 2015.  While I don’t expect that kind of blowout again, I do believe it’s fair to assume that the Horned Frogs will win this game by a touchdown or more.

TCU is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games off a Thursday game. The Horned Frogs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference games. TCU is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points are 56-24 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* FSU/Clemson ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State +11

At 8-0 and ranked No. 3 in the country, the Clemson Tigers have earned the faith of the betting public. They have gone 5-2-1 ATS through those eight games, and if you bet on them early in the week, then you would be 7-1 as their lines just keep moving in favor of them throughout the week. That’s because the betting public has really gravitated toward this team with the way they are playing right now. As a result, I believe Clemson is simply laying too many points this week against Florida State.

Clemson has played a pretty soft schedule up to this point with its lone signature win coming at home against Notre Dame by a final of 24-22 as 3-point favorites in the slop. The Tigers were actually outgained by 141 yards by the Fighting Irish and were fortunate to win that game. I’m just not sold that this team is a national title contender at this point in the season due to the softness of the schedule.

Florida State would be 8-0 as well if not for a blocked field goal on the game’s final play that was returned for a touchdown at Georgia Tech. It was the first regular season loss for the Seminoles in three years and only their second loss overall in the past three seasons combined. But somehow, this team just doesn’t get much credit for what it has done, and what it is doing.

This will certainly be the first time in the past three years that the Seminoles have been double-digit dogs, and if you were ever going to back them, this would be the time.  Florida State has never been a double-digit dog under Jimbo Fisher.  In fact, the Seminoles have only been an underdog to Clemson twice in the last 35 years, and they won both of those games outright.

I love the resiliency the Seminoles showed last week in bouncing back from that loss to Georgia Tech with a 45-21 home win over Syracuse. They dominated that game, outgaining the Orange 575-303. They did so without two of their studs in Everett Golson and Dalvin Cook, who were both out with injury.

While both Golson and Cook are probable, I don’t think it would matter either way. Sean Maguire is a veteran quarterback who can handle the load, and he proved it last week with 348 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Syracuse. Jacques Patrick filled in nicely for Cook, rushing for 162 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. The Seminoles are a deep, talented team who can use the ‘next man up’ mentality because of their depth.

Last year, Maguire saved Florida State’s season against Clemson. He played the entire game in place of an injured Jameis Winston and led the Seminoles to a 23-17 (OT) victory. Maguire threw for 304 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the win. And that was against a much better Clemson defense than the one the Seminoles will be up against Saturday. The Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State last week and aren’t as good on that side of the ball as they are getting credit for with just three starters back from last year.

The Seminoles are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Tigers. In their only trip to Clemson during this stretch, they won 51-14 as 5-point favorites in 2013. They outgained the Tigers 565-326 for the game. They have only lost to Clemson by double-digits once in the last nine meetings in this series. I believe they can stay within double-digits of the Tigers this weekend as well, and I'm not ruling out the outright upset.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee -2.5

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are in danger of missing a bowl game for a second consecutive season.  They went 6-6 last year and didn't get invited to a bowl, and despite returning 16 starters this year, they sit at just 3-5 and needed three more wins in their final four games to become bowl eligible.

It's safe to say that the Blue Raiders will be putting their best foot forward this week against Marshall as a result.  Their bye week couldn't have come at a better time as it has given them a chance to regroup and refocus.  I look for their best effort of the season here Saturday against a Marshall team that played last week and hasn't had a bye yet, so they are tired.

Middle Tennessee is way better than its 3-5 record would indicate.  It has lost to two Power 5 teams in Vanderbilt (13-17) and Illinois (25-27) by a combined 6 points.  It has already had to go on the road and play Alabama, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech as well.  You would be hard-pressed to find many other teams who have played as difficult a schedule as the Blue Raiders up to this point.

But Middle Tennessee has taken care of business at home, going 3-1 while outscoring the opposition by an average of 29.8 points per game.  Its offense has averaged 49.5 points and 527.2 yards per game at home, while its defense has only given up 19.7 points and 320.7 yards per game.  Two years ago, Middle Tennessee pulled the 51-49 upset of Marshall as 10-point underdogs.  That was a much better Marshall team than the 2015 version.

The Thundering Herd are nowhere near as good as their 8-1 record would indicate.  They have played such a soft schedule up to this point with their nine games coming against Purdue, Ohio, Norfolk State, Kent State, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, North Texas and Charlotte.  You would be hard-pressed to find an easier schedule in the country than that.  So the Thundering Herd aren't battle-tested, and this is going to be their stiffest test yet.

Marshall is only outgaining teams 393.7 to 349.6 on the season, which isn't the sign of an 8-1 team.  Its offense has taken a huge step back this year, averaging those 393.7 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 424 yards per game.  The defense is only giving up 349.6 yards per game, but that's not that impressive when you consider opposing offenses only average 359 yards per game.  Now the Thundering Herd recently lost their best player in RB Devon Johnson, who had rushed for 555 yards and 6.6 per carry with five touchdowns.  He may return this week, but it's not going to matter.

Marshall has been vulnerable on the road this season.  It lost 10-21 at Ohio while getting outgained by 122 yards.  That's the same Ohio team that has blowout losses to Western Michigan (14-49), Buffalo (17-41) and Bowling Green (24-62) in its last three games.  The Thundering Herd also needed overtime to beat Kent State 36-29 on the road, and they were outgained by 159 yards in that game and shouldn't have won.  Kent State is just 3-6 this season with blowout losses to Illinois (3-52), Toledo (7-38) and Bowling Green (0-48).

Marshall is 38-62 ATS in its last 100 road games.  The Thundering Herd are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The home team is 4-0 straight up in four all-time meetings between these programs having never lost.  Take Middle Tennessee Saturday.

15* Penn State/Northwestern ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

Both Penn State and Northwestern have two losses apiece, but I have no doubt that the Nittany Lions are the better team in this one. They play in the tougher division in the Big Ten with their only losses coming to Ohio State and Temple, who are both ranked.  They have taken care of business against all lesser opponents they've faced, and I look at Northwestern as a lesser opponent.

The Wildcats have been overvalued ever since their season-opening win over Stanford.  If those teams played 10 times, the Wildcats would lose nine of them.  I believe the Wildcats' true colors showed in their 38-0 loss to Michigan where they were outgained by 212 yards, and their 10-40 home loss to Iowa where they were outgained by 294 yards.  Penn State is a very similar team to both Michigan and Iowa, but with a better quarterback.

Christian Hackenberg is starting to live up to that first-round draft status that everyone has been talking about.  Over his last six games, Hackenberg has thrown for 1,415 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  He's coming off his most efficient performance of the season, hitting 21 of 29 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns in a 39-0 blowout victory over Illinois.  The Nittany Lions just keep getting better as a team.

I trust Hackenberg to be able to make more plays than Northwestern freshman Clayton Thorson, who is completing just 52.7 percent of his passes for 1,119 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions.  Thorson is going to be under duress all game against a Nittany Lions defense that leads the nation with 36 sacks while ranking 4th against the pass at 157.9 yards per game allowed.

Northwestern is being overvalued due to its 30-28 win at Nebraska last time out.  But Nebraska just lost to Purdue and will not be making a bowl game this season.  Plus, that was a misleading final score.  At one point, the Huskers had a 10-1 edge in first downs over the Wildcats but somehow trailed 14-6.

Penn State is outgaining Big Ten opponents by 76 yards per game, while Northwestern is getting outgained by 102 yards per game in conference play, a difference of 178 yards per game that really shows how much better the Nittany Lions are than the Wildcats.

Northwestern is 0-8 straight up in its last eight games following a bye week, so I'm not concerned at all with the fact that Northwestern gets extra time off before this one.  For whatever reason, Pat Fitzgerald just hasn't managed the bye weeks very well at all in his time at Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions will be anxious to get back on the field and they'll be playing with a ton of confidence after their best performance of the season in that 39-point win over Illinois.

The Wildcats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.  Northwestern is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* College Football DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +21

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Florida Gators.  They are coming off a huge 27-3 win over their arch rivals in the Georgia Bulldogs.  Expect them to come out lacking the kind of focus it's going to take to put away this pesky Vanderbilt team by three touchdowns.

Vanderbilt was in a big letdown spot last week against Houston as it stepped out of conference following its first SEC win under second-year head coach Derek Mason.  The Commodores failed to show up and beat themselves by committing four turnovers and essentially handing Houston 21 points in a 34-0 loss.

Turnovers have been the Commodores' undoing as they've put up decent numbers overall, but are -11 in turnover differential.  The Gators, meanwhile, have benefited from one of the best turnover differentials (+13) in the country.  There is a lot of luck involved with turnovers, and the Gators wouldn't be 7-1 without them.

The Commodores have been competitive in every SEC game they've played.  Their biggest loss in SEC play came against Georgia by a final of 14-31.  But that game was much closer than the final would indicate as they were only outgained by 22 yards.  They also lost by 9 to South Carolina on the road, beat Missouri 10-3, and only lost 16-27 at Ole Miss as 27-point underdogs.

Vanderbilt has one of the best defenses in the country, which will keep it in this game against Florida.  The Commodores only give up 18.5 points per game, 323.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.3 points, 406 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  So they are holding opponents to 10.8 points, 83 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.

It's not like Florida has the kind of explosive offense that is going to produce consistent blowouts.  The Gators only average 380.9 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 384 yards per game.  They already have close home wins over East Carolina (31-24) and Tennessee (28-27).

Vanderbilt has only lost to Florida by more than 14 points once in the last four years, which was a 24-point loss last season in a game that was closer than the final score showed.  The last time the Commodores went to Gainesville, they won 34-17 as 12-point underdogs in 2013.

Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  The Commodores are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games after playing their last game on the road.  The Commodores are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Florida blowout win over Georgia last week coupled with Vanderbilt's blowout loss to Houston has created some additional line value here that is too good to pass up.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Temple/SMU AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +13.5

The average bettor would look at this line and assume that Temple is obviously the right side as only 13-point favorites. You have a 7-1 Temple team that is unbeaten within the conference up against a 1-7 SMU team that has lost all four of its conference games. Seems obvious, right? Well, this is where situational handicapping comes into play, and this line is smaller than the general public thinks it should be for a reason.

This is a horrible spot for Temple. It is deflated following its 20-24 home loss to then-No. 9 Notre Dame last weekend. It held a 20-17 lead with just over two minutes remaining before giving up a touchdown to the Fighting Irish to lose a heartbreaker. ESPN’s College Gameday was in Philadelphia for this game, so it was hyped up all last week. These players aren’t going to be nearly as motivated to face SMU, and I look for them to come out very flat and for the Mustangs to put it on them early and keep it close for four quarters.

When you look at the Notre Dame game, there’s no way Temple should have even had a shot to win anyways. It was outgained 295-467 by the superior Fighting Irish, or by 172 total yards. Notre Dame had three trips inside the Temple 14-yard line, which resulted in just three points due to two turnovers and a missed field goal.  That 24-20 game being closer than it really was is actually providing some additional line value here, because the Owls covered when they provably shouldn't have.

More concerning for the Owls is the lumps they took physically. Rhule said his team may be without "a number of starters" against SMU.  Rhule didn't go into specifics about the injuries, but one starter banged up over the weekend was running back Jahad Thomas. Thomas, who leads the AAC with 113.0 rushing yards per game, said he hurt his ribs against Notre Dame.  "That game really took a toll," Rhule said. "It is a really beat up, beat up football team that we have right now. ... But I think we have a lot of good backups that are waiting their turns."

The Owls were also fortunate to beat East Carolina on the road the week before. They trailed 14-10 with just under four minutes to play before scoring 14 straight points. They were outgained by the Pirates by 56 yards in that game. They have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season, so they aren’t as good as their 7-1 record shows.  They have been outgained in three of their four road games by 56 yards by ECU, by 32 yards by lowly Charlotte, and by 261 yards by Cincinnati in a very fluky win.  They only outgained a bad UMass team by 20 yards on the road and beat them 25-23 as similar 13.5-point favorites.

Despite being 1-7, I have no doubt that SMU is a better team than that record indicates. A lot of that can be blamed on the schedule as the Mustangs have had to face three teams that are still unbeaten on the season in Baylor, TCU and Houston. They covered the spread in all three of those games, and only lost to TCU 37-56 on the road as 37-point underdogs in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter.

The last three weeks, the Mustangs are 0-3 with losses to Houston (28-49), USF (14-38) and Tulsa (31-40), but a closer look at the box scores shows that those games were closer than the finals would indicate. They were only outgained by 58 yards at Houston, they outgained South Florida by 13 yards, and they were only outgained by 13 yards against Tulsa.  Those were some misleading final scores to say the least.

Former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris has done a great job improving this SMU offense and making it competitive. The Mustangs are putting up 28.7 points and 414.2 yards per game this season. Quarterback Matt Davis can do it all as he’s throwing for 1,775 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 450 yards and seven scores.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) – good passing team (230-275 PY/G) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/G) after 8+ games are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. SMU is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer yards per game.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* Browns/Bengals NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland +11.5

The Cincinnati Bengals could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They have gone 7-0 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread to really make the betting public a killing. The public continues to pour money in on them this week, forcing oddsmakers to over-adjust and set them as 11.5-point favorites. It’s by far the biggest spread of the season for the Bengals, who haven’t been more than 3.5-point favorites in any other game. The clear value in this game with with the Browns.

At the same time, the Browns couldn’t be much more undervalued right now due to going 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games. They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses at St. Louis (6-24) and at home against Arizona (20-34). But I’ve seen enough from this team to know that they can stay within double-digits of the Bengals, especially with the intensity level a little higher for them in this division rivalry game.

The Browns have beaten Tennessee 28-14 at home and Baltimore 33-30 on the road. Three of their losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 27-30 loss at San Diego, and a 23-26 (OT) home loss to the unbeaten Broncos. The Browns clearly aren’t as bad as their record would indicate as they’ve simply had poor fortune in close games, going 1-3 in contests decided by a TD or less. They were even ahead 20-10 at halftime against Arizona last week before losing Josh McCown to injury in the second half, which is when they spiraled downhill.

I know Johnny Manziel is expected to start this week, but I’m not that concerned about it. He has actually played pretty well when given a chance this year. Manziel is completing 56 percent of his passes for 393 yards with three touchdowns against one interception for a 93.2 QB rating. McCown had played well with a 95.2 rating, but Manziel can play up to his level. He proved that in the 28-14 win over Tennessee as he threw for 172 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

Cincinnati is nowhere near as good as its 7-0 record would indicate. It has only outgained one opponent by more than 60 yards this year, and that was all the way back in Week 1 against the Raiders. The Bengals have actually been outgained in three of their last four games against the Steelers, Bills, Seahawks and Chiefs. The only exception was when they outgained the Seahawks by 22 yards after erasing a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to come back and win 27-24 (OT).

The Bengals are 9-0-1 in their last 10 games that were decided by a touchdown or less. They have simply been fortunate in close games over the last two years to have the record that they’ve had. They are 4-0 in such games this season. This kind of luck in close games isn’t going to last for long. And I fully expect this one to be close, especially since Cleveland has won three of the last five meetings, including a 24-3 road win last year as 6.5-point dogs.

This is certainly a letdown spot for the Bengals.  They are coming off a huge 16-10 win at Pittsburgh in which the Steelers outgained them by 60 yards but gave the game away with three interceptions by Ben Roethlisberger.  The Bengals 'proved' they were for real with that win, and now have a comfortable 3.5-game lead in the division.  I look for them to take their foot off the gas this week, and for the hungry Browns to take advantage and keep this one close.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive losses against an opponent off one or more consecutive wins are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Cleveland is 8-1 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. The underdog is 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings, which just shows that anything can happen in this rivalry.  Roll with the Browns Thursday.

15* Baylor/K-State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -16.5

The Baylor Bears just plug in quarterbacks and keep churning out massive offensive numbers, which is why I'm not concerned about the season-ending injury to Seth Russell.  The bye week came at a great time as freshman Jarrett Stidham has had nearly two weeks to get ready for Kansas State now.

Because the Bears have outscored teams by an average of 36.0 points per game this season, Stidham has seen action in all seven games.  He's gone 24 of 28 for 331 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Stidham came to Baylor in January 2014 as one of the nation's most highly touted recruits.

"Stidham's deal is he's been going all along anyway. In practice, our backups get as many reps as our starters," head coach Art Briles said. "From that standpoint, there was no difference there except he was working with a few different people over the last few practices. I’d be totally shocked if he’s not very composed, very competitive, very intelligent, and very on cue with everything he does Thursday for our football team".

The Bears are the nation's highest-scoring team at 61.1 points per game and they lead the country at 686.1 yards per game.  But what really makes them a national title contender is that they may have the best defense in the Big 12.  They are holding opponents to 25.1 points, 382.4 yards per game and 4.9 per play who average 30.2 points, 429 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  And that's really impressive when you consider a lot of those yards given up have come in garbage time with the game already decided.

While this is probably the best team in the history of Baylor, this is one of the worst Kansas State teams that Bill Snyder has ever had.  The Wildcats have opened 3-4 with their only wins coming against South Dakota, UTSA and Louisiana Tech (in overtime).  They were even outgained by 96 yards at home by Louisiana Tech.

The Wildcats have opened 0-4 in Big 12 play and will fall to 0-5 for the first time ever in conference action.  They did play TCU and Oklahoma State tough, but they were outgained by 158 yards by the Horned Frogs and by 139 yards by the Cowboys.  They were outgained by 458 yards in a 0-55 home loss to Oklahoma.  They were outgained by 131 yards in a 9-23 loss at Texas, which was just shut out 24-0 by Iowa State.

“You know a lot of us, myself included, have not really been here before,” Kansas State coach Bill Snyder told reporters of the losing streak. “So, it is a matter of having the answers of how to overcome the complexity and the difficulty of what has taken place.”

I just see no way this Kansas State offense can put up enough points to stay within 16.5 of Baylor.  The Wildcats were held to 110 total yards by Oklahoma and 242 yards by Texas.  QB Joe Hubener is 30-of-78 passing for 378 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions in Big 12 play.  He's not going to start magically lighting up this underrated Baylor defense.

Plays against a home team (KANSAS ST) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 225 or less total yards/game over their last two games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bears are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall, including 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Baylor Thursday.

15* Ohio/Bowling Green MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 68

Because Bowling Green is a team that has been putting up a lot of points against bad defenses this year, the oddsmakers have been forced to over-inflate this total tonight.  But the Falcons will be up against a much better defensive team than their used to in Ohio.

Indeed, Ohio is only giving up 23.0 points and 366.7 yards per game this season.  The Bobcats are a run-first team that likes to control the clock and keep opposing offenses off the field.  But they aren't great offensively as they are averaging 25.5 points and 386.1 yards per game.

Bowling Green is better defensively than it gets credit for.  It is giving up 28.5 points and 421 yards per game this season against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points and 394 yards per game.  It has really picked up its play defensively following a tough non-conference schedule.

The Falcons are only allowing 17.5 points and 363.2 yards per game in MAC play.  They have given up 10 combined points in their last two games.  They only allowed 10 points and 271 total yards to Akron and shut out Kent State while allowing just 166 total yards.

Ohio's offense has really bogged down in conference play.  It is scoring just 19.7 points and averaging 357.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against MAC opponents.  It was held to 14 points against Akron, 14 against Western Michigan and 17 against Buffalo in its three losses.

Looking at the recent history of this series, it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined outputs of 44, 49, 40 and 57 points.  That's an average of 47.5 combined points per game, which is 20.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 68.

Ohio is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams who score 34 or more points per game.  We're seeing 51.2 combined points per game in this spot.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NIU/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +8

Every year it seems like the talk is how Toledo is going to finally overtake Northern Illinois in the MAC West, and every year the Rockets find a way to lose to the Huskies. Neither team has been more than an 11.5-point favorite in any of the last eight meetings. But Northern Illinois is 5-0 in the last five meetings and simply has Toledo’s number.

In fact, Northern Illinois is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Toledo with its only loss coming by a final of 19-20 on the road in 2009.  The Huskies have won by 3, 18, 7, 3, 35 and 31 points in the other six meetings.   That makes for a perfect 7-0 system backing the Huskies dating back to 2008 pertaining to this +7.5-point spread.  Getting 7.5 points here with the Huskies is where the value lies. 

Despite having three more losses than Toledo this season, I would argue that Northern Illinois (5-3) is every bit as good. The three losses for the Huskies have all come on the road and to quality opponents, all by 10 points or less. They only lost 13-20 at defending national champion Ohio State while only allowing 298 total yards to the Buckeyes as 34-point underdogs. That effort alone showed what the Huskies are capable of this season.

Northern Illinois’ other two losses came at Boston College (14-17) and at Central Michigan (19-29). It’s no shame to lose to an ACC team like the Eagles by a field goal on the road. And when you look at the CMU game, the Huskies actually outgained the Chippewas 316-275 but gave the game away by committing four turnovers. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS since with blowout wins over Ball State (59-41), Miami Ohio (45-12) and Eastern Michigan (49-21).

Toledo is overvalued due to its 7-0 record and No. 20 national ranking. The Rockets should be 5-2 at best right now. They were outgained by 197 yards in their 16-12 win at Arkansas that was a complete fluke as the Razorbacks only managed 12 points despite gaining 515 total yards. The Rockets were also outgianed by 172 yards in a 30-23 (OT) home win over Iowa State. The Cyclones missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it for them and clearly outplayed the Rockets the entire game.

So, I actually come away more impressed with Northern Illinois’ two losses against Ohio State and Boston College than Toledo’s two wins against Arkansas and Iowa State. I really do think these are two evenly-matched teams, and if anything the Huskies are the better squad. They should have no problem staying within a touchdown of the Rockets this week and will be looking for another statement win in this series.

The numbers also show that these teams are pretty much equals. The Huskies gain 5.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.9 yards per play, while the Rockets gain 6.1 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.9 yards per play. The Huskies allow 4.7 yards per play against opponents that average 5.4 yards per play, so they have a very underrated defense. The Rockets give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 per play.

The Huskies are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. Northern Illinois is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Toledo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine Tuesday games. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.

25* Colts/Panthers MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis +7

This line is clearly an overreaction to the way these two teams have started the season. I’m not ready to crown the Carolina Panthers as a Super Bowl contender like this line indicates, and I’m not ready to write off the Indianapolis Colts as this line suggests. There’s no way the Panthers should be laying a touchdown to the Colts when I look at these as two pretty evenly matched teams in spite of their records.

The fact of the matter is that the Panthers are way overvalued right now due to their 6-0 start that has included a 5-1 record against the spread. Meanwhile, the Colts are undervalued right now due to their 3-4 start that has included a 2-5 record against the number. The betting public has made a killing on the Panthers while losing a fortune on the Colts, which has forced oddsmakers to set this this number higher than it should be.  They know the public is going to be quick to back the Panthers instead of the Colts, it's as simple as that.

The Panthers are very fortunate to be 6-0 right now. They have played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL as all six of their opponents currently own losing records in the Jaguars, Texans, Saints, Bucs, Seahawks and Eagles. They only rank 13th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 4.4 yards per game on the season. That’s not the type of number you would expect from a 6-0 team.

The Colts being 1-4 with Andrew Luck is being blown out of proportion. He’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets back to the way he played when the Colts won 11 games for three consecutive seasons in his first three years as a starter. They gave the Patriots all they could handle in a 27-34 loss just two weeks ago in his return from injury. He threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots and 333 yards and three scores against the Saints the past two weeks, so he’s clearly not broken.

Only once this season have the Panthers been favored by more than a field goal. They have been undervalued up to this point, but now they are clearly overvalued as 7-point favorites here. The only other time they were favored by more was against the Saints in Week 3, where they were 10-point favorites because Drew Brees was not playing due to injury. They failed to cover the spread in that game in a 27-22 home win. If they win this game against the Colts, it’s not going to be by more than a touchdown.

Off two straight losses and sitting at 3-4 on the season, the Colts are going to be the more motivated team in this one. They desperately need a win to get their season turned around after losing the past two weeks to the Patriots and Saints. I look for them to come out very hungry and for that hunger to lead them to the likely upset win here. But we’ll take the points for some added insurance.

Ron Rivera is 2-9 ATS in home games after playing a game at home as the coach of Carolina. Chuck Pagano is 6-0 ATS vs. poor punt coverage teams who allow 12 or more yards per return as the coach of Indianapolis. The Colts are 18-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss. Indianapolis is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 Monday night games.  Bet the Colts Monday.

15* Packers/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +3.5

Note: I'd recommend buying Denver to +3 if you have the option.  I put in the pick at +3.5 (-125) because that was my best option to choose from, the rest were +2.5 at either +105 or +110.  I personally bet the Broncos +3 (-120).

The Broncos are getting a lot of hate right now despite being 6-0. That’s because the offense hasn’t lived up to the lofty standards that Peyton Manning has set over the past couple seasons. But a bye week should do this offense wonders, and it’s just a testament to how good this defense really is that they are 6-0 right now. Defense is half of the game, and the Broncos’ stop unit is not getting enough credit here as they are 3-point home underdogs when I believe they should be favored.

Indeed, the Broncos are 2nd in the league in scoring defense (17.0 points/game) and 1st in total defense (281.3 yards/game) this season. They have the perfect recipe to stop the Packers because they have arguably the best pass rush in the NFL led by Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. They also have elite defensive backs who can shut down opposing receivers and allow the pass rush to get there. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 192.2 yards per game.

Manning and the offense did show signs of taking a step in the right direction last time out against the Browns. They racked up a season-high 442 total yards with a balanced attack that featured 152 yards on the ground and 290 through the air. Manning isn’t going to continue throwing this many interceptions for much longer, and the bye week will help him and Gary Kubiak get on the same page with this offense to work out the kinks.

The Packers are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season. The betting public loves backing them, and the Packers have delivered week in and week out. But as a result, they are overvalued right now, and that started to show in their last game against the Chargers. They were asked to lay 11 points to San Diego, and they only won 27-20 and should have lost that game. They gave up 548 total yards to San Diego and were outgained by 178 yards for the game.

In fact, the Packers have been outgained in three of their six games this season. They are 15th in total defense (355.0 yards/game) and 10th in total offense (364.2 yards/game).  They only rank 12th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by a mere 9.2 yards per game. Compare that to the Broncos, who have outgained five of their first six opponents, and you could make the argument that Denver is the better team. The Broncos rank 7th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.5 yards per game.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Broncos are 2-0 at home this season to improve to 24-2 at home in the regular season with Peyton Manning as their quarterback. That makes their 6-0 record all the more impressive considering they have played four road games compared to just two home games.  The Packers have played four home games to just two road games, and they didn't play all that well at San Francisco or Chicago.  Now they faced their toughest road test yet.

Denver is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Broncos are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game. Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +1.5

The Chicago Bears should not be home underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings.  They have had two weeks to prepare for this game and are hungry for a win after a 2-4 start.  They were playing much better coming into their bye, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with thei only loss coming 34-37 (OT) on the road at Detroit.  I look for them to come out of their bye playing even better.

The Bears have had a chance to get some rest and to get healthy.  Their top two receivers coming into the season were Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal, who have both missed some time.  But both are back and healthy now.  Jeffery had been out since the opener with a pulled hamstring but returned for the Detroit game last time out and caught eight passes for 147 yards and a touchdown.  With him in the lineup, this offense is much more dynamic.

Chicago totaled a season-high 444 yards against the Lions with Cutler throwing for 353.  The only other time the Bears topped 400 yards was when Jeffery was active in Week 1 against the Packers.  The Bears played the Packers extremely tough at home in that game, only losing 23-31 despite outgaining Green Bay 402-332 for the game.  That effort right there showed what they are capable of at full strength as they should have won that game.

Minnesota is extremely fortunate to be 4-2 right now.  It actually ranks just 19th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 13.3 yards per game.  The Bears are 16th in yardage differential, getting outgained by only 7.1 yards per game.  And that's with Cutler missing a couple starts due to injury and Jeffery missing four games.  This is clearly one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now.

Minnesota has also benefited from an extremely easy schedule.  It has played just one team with a winning record, and that was the Denver Broncos, who they lost to 20-23 on the road.  The other five games have come against the Lions (twice), 49ers, Chargers and Chiefs, who are a combined 7-21.  That makes the fact that they are getting outgained by 13.3 yards per game on the season even worse.  The Bears have faced a much more difficult schedule having already played the likes of the Packers, Cardinals, Seahawks & Raiders.

The Bears are 13-1 in their last 14 home meetings with the Vikings, including 7-0 in the last seven meetings at Soldier Field.  Obviously, home-field advantage has been huge in this series, and I expect that to continue this year.  The Bears averaged 32.9 points during their seven straight home wins over Minnesota.  The Home team is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 meetings.  Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Chicago.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +8

There's no question in my mind that this line is inflated.  The 49ers are coming off an ugly 3-20 home loss to the Seahawks last week, while the Rams are coming off a 24-6 blowout home win over the Browns.  The Rams are not 8 points better than the 49ers at home, but public perception has forced oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be based off last week's results.

The Seahawks simply have the 49ers number, so it wasn't surprising to see them lose the way they did.  But that game was played last Thursday, meaning the 49ers have some extra rest and prep time to get ready for the Rams this week.  I look for them to come back strong in this one.  Also, consider that the Rams were coming off their bye last week, while the Browns were coming off a heartbreaking OT loss to Denver.  That was an awful spot for the Browns and a great one for the Rams.

When you look at how the 49ers played in their previous two games prior to the Seattle game, this team was starting to turn the corner.  They only lost 27-30 on the road to the New York Giants in Week 5 after the Giants scored a game-winning touchdown late.  They racked up 380 total yards on the Giants in that game.  Then they came bac in Week 6 and beat the Ravens 25-20 at home, gaining 391 total yards in the process.  This offense isn't broken, it just ran into a buzz saw in Seattle last week.

St. Louis hasn't been much better on that side of the ball this season.  In fact, the Rams are scoring just 18.0 points per game while ranking 31st in the NFL in total offense.  These teams are actually very evenly-matched offensively as they are both well below average units.  That is why it's going to be hard for the Rams to cover this 8-point spread, especially in a division rivalry game.  The Rams also rank 29th in yardage differential this year, getting outgained by 52.5 yards per game.

While the Seahawks have owned the 49ers, the 49ers have actually owned the Rams.  They are 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings in this series.  Their three losses during this span came by 3, 3, and 8 points.  In fact, the 49ers haven't lost by more than 8 points to the Rams in any of the last 20 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 20-0 system backing San Francisco heading into this game.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

20* AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers Money Line +113

The Steelers had a nice run without Ben Roethlisberger, managing to go 2-2 despite arguably betting outplayed in all four games. They would have taken that record knowing that their franchise quarterback was going to miss four weeks. It really brought this team together and allowed other guys to step up, which is only going to help them going forward.

But now Big Big is expected to return to action this week just in time for a huge division game against the Bengals, and the Steelers are going to be a very dangerous team the rest of the way as a result. Roethlisberger has completed 75.3 percent of his passes for 912 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 10.2 yards per attempt in two-plus games, so his absence was a huge one. Look for him to pick up right where he left off now that he’s 100 percent healthy and didn’t come back too early.  Remember, Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing last year.

Cincinnati is certainly putting on a show in the early going, but with a 6-0 record comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Bengals are going to find hard living up to the rest of the way. They’ve also gone 5-0-1 against the spread, so the public has been winning some serious money on them. The proof that they are overvalued comes with the fact that they actually opened as 1.5-point road favorites in this game. Sure, coming off a bye week is a concern, but the last thing this team needed was a bye week to stop their momentum with the way they were playing.

The Bengals haven’t been as good as their record would indicate, however. They did dominate the Raiders in the opener and outgained them by 150 yards in their 33-13 road win. But they haven’t outgained a team by more than 60 yards since, and they have won all three of their games that were decided by five points or less to be very fortunate in close games. They have actually been outgained in two of their last three games. They were outgained by 16 yards by the Chiefs and by 13 yards by the Bills. They needed to erase a 17-point fourth quarter to beat the Seahawks, too. Sooner rather than later, their good fortune will run out.

I believe that to be this week as the Steelers have owned the Bengals in the last three meetings. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while outgaining the Bengals in all three contests. They won 30-20 at home in 2013, 42-21 on the road in 2014, and 27-17 at home last year as well. As you can see, all three wins have come by double-digits, so they really haven’t even been close. They have averaged 33.0 points per game in the three wins.  With Big Ben back, look for the Steelers’ dominance in this series to continue, especially since they need this game more as they are sitting at 4-3 while the Bengals are 6-0.

Pittsburgh’s defense has shown vast improvement this season in allowing just 18.7 points per game. It hasn’t allowed more than 28 points in any game, and it has held six of its first seven opponents to 23 points or fewer.  The Patriots were the team that scored 28, and they have been putting up big numbers on everyone.

Cincinnati’s defense isn’t as good as it gets credit for. The Bengals are giving up 370.7 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season against opponents who average 364 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  Cincinnati is giving up 4.9 yards per carry this season and Le'Veon Bell is in for a big game.  Jamaal Charles ran for 6.6 yards per carry on this Bengals defense, which hasn't faced many great running backs outside of Charles.

The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in home games after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons. Pittsburgh is 56-34 ATS in its last 90 home games following one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Steelers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record. They have really risen to the occasion in recent years against these good teams.

Pittsburgh is 34-13 straight up in its last 47 meetings with Cincinnati.  Roethlisberger is 9-2 against the spread as a starter as a home underdog in his career, including 3-0 against the spread in his career as a home dog against division opponents.  The wrong team is favored here folks.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line.

20* NFC Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Saints -3

The Saints have really impressed me with the way they’ve been able to turn around their season following an 0-3 start. They have won three of four games since, and the last two have come against two quality teams in the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts.

The difference has been that the Saints are now taking care of the football. They have committed just one turnover in their three wins, and they have forced three turnovers in each of their wins over the Falcons and Colts. They beat the Falcons 31-21 at home two weeks ago. Last week, they beat the Colts 27-21 on the road and really dominated that game from start to finish. They outgained the Colts by 73 yards in the win thanks to a 449-yard output from their offense.

This is a New Orleans offense that is once again among the league’s elite. The Saints rank 6th in the NFL in total offense in averaging 395.9 yards per game this season. They proved that they have balance last week in rushing for 183 yards as a team. Drew Brees is still playing at a Pro Bowl level and looks recovered from a shoulder injury suffered earlier this season.

The Giants are 4-3, but the numbers indicate that this team is very fortunate to hold that record. In fact, they have been outgained in six of their seven games this season. They rank 31st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 58.3 yards per game. Only the San Francisco 49ers have been worse. Those aren’t the type of numbers you would expect from a team with a winning record at this point in the season.

Brees and company should have their way with a Giants defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 401.7 yards per game. The Giants were actually outgained by 171 yards by the Cowboys last week and should have lost. They gave up 460 total yards to Dallas, which is really poor when you consider that the Cowboys were without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. Indeed, the home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Saints are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Giants with the last three wins coming by 25, 21 and 42 points, respectively. The Giants are just 1-2 on the road this season while the Saints are 2-1 at home. I think that home-field advantage should be worth more than just three points here.

New Orleans is 11-3 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. The Saints are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. New York is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 games after being outgained by 150-plus total yards in its previous game. The Giants are 20-46-2 ATS in their last 68 games in November.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +13

The Michigan Wolverines are being treated like they are one of the best teams in the country with this 13-point spread. They certainly are improved under Jim Harbaugh, but asking them to go on the road and to put away a pesky Minnesota team by two touchdowns to beat us is asking too much. I believe there is some serious line value with the Golden Gophers at home this week.

Both teams are coming off their byes, so there’s no real advantage there. But I will say that Michigan’s bye couldn’t have come at a worse time. Nobody wants to practice for two straight weeks after losing the way that the Wolverines did to Michigan State. That blocked punt return TD was about the worst way you could lose a game. I still believe these players are feeling a hangover effect from that loss and won’t bring their best effort against Minnesota this week after essentially having their Big Ten and national title hopes crushed.

Minnesota is consistently undervalued year in and year out under Jerry Kill. The guy just keeps finding ways to keep the Golden Gophers competitive, and that has been the case again this year. They are off to a 4-3 start and still very much alive in the Big Ten West race. Their first four games were all decided by 6 points or less, which included a 17-23 loss to national title contender TCU.

But Kill has decided to step down this week due to health reasons, and the players will be trying to win this game to honor him, which just adds to their motivation.  The interim coach will be Tracy Claeys.  He filled that role for seven games in 2013 and did a tremendous job while Kill took a break for the same health reasons.  Indeed, Minnesota was a dog in six of those seven games with Claeys as the coach, and he guided them to a 6-1 ATS record with outright upsets of Northwestern, Nebraska and Indiana.

Minnesota has actually gone 5-0 ATS in its last five as a home underdog with upsets of Nebraska (+10) and Iowa (51-14), along with near upsets of eventual national champ Ohio State (lost by 7) and No. 2 ranked TCU (lost by 6) in recent seasons.

The Golden Gophers did lose 27-0 on the road to Northwestern earlier this year, but they only allowed 312 total yards to the Wildcats in that game. They came back with a 41-13 win at Purdue the following week before losing to Nebraska 25-48 at home last time out. But that was a 38-25 game late in the fourth quarter before the Huskers added 10 points late, including an interception return for a TD. The Gophers were outgained by less than 100 yards by the Huskers.

Both of these teams are really built to play in close games, which is why the +13 here has a lot of value. Both teams rely on their defenses, which is why this total has only been set at 39 points. Oddsmakers are expecting a very low-scoring game, which favors the underdog. It would take roughly a 27-13 score for this line to match up with the total, and I don’t see the Wolverines getting to 27 points.

Minnesota has only allowed more than 27 points once this season. It is giving up just 23.1 points, 328.7 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  It is holding opponents to 5.0 points, 77.3 yards and 0.9 per play below their season averages.  Now the Golden Gophers will be up against a Michigan offense that simply lacks firepower, which is going to make it hard to cover this big spread on the road.

The Wolverines are only averaging 28.6 points, 367.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opposing defenses that allow 25.5 points, 380 yards per game and 5.4 per play. So, Michigan essentially has a below-average offense. Jake Rudock is not a very good quarterback as the Wolverines are only averaging 186 passing yards per game. Minnesota defends the run pretty well, allowing 3.9 yards per carry this season.

Last year, Minnesota thoroughly dominated Michigan 30-14 on the road behind a strong defensive effort. It outgained the Wolverines 373-171 for the game, or by 202 total yards. I look for this Minnesota defense to limit what Rudock and company can do again, and for that to be the reason this game goes down to the wire with the Golden Gophers getting the cover in the end.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MINNESOTA) – after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 224-143 (61%) ATS since 1992. The Wolverines are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 road games. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Minnesota is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon State +27

The Utah Utes continue to be way overvalued here.  I have faded them in three straight games with a 2-1 ATS record.  They only won 30-24 at home against Cal as 7-point favorites and would have lost that game if not for 6 turnovers by the Golden Bears.  They managed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 34-18 home win over Arizona State the next week despite trailing 14-18 entering the fourth quarter.

But their luck ran out last week against a better team in USC, losing 24-42 on the road as 6.5-point underdogs.  Now I question the Utes' state of mind knowing that their national title hopes took a serious hit last week.  Sure, they can win out and would still have a chance to make the four-team playoff, but it's not likely.  Frankly, I don't think they're good enough to win out anyway.  But it's clear that loss and where they stand is still on the players and coach's minds.

''Life moves on. We have to be ready for the next game, the next opponent and the next challenge. Like I said, we still control our own destiny. We can't let this (loss at USC) affect us in a negative way. There can be no hangover in this next game from last week.'' said head coach Kyle Whittingham.

''My guess is that there won't be any undefeated teams in the Power 5 at the end of the season, maybe one,'' Whittingham said. ''When you look back, it's really hard to go undefeated. We don't really care about anything but this week, but historically, it's really hard to go undefeated.''

''If you had told us in August that seven games in, we'd be 6-1 with a one-game lead in the South, I think we would have taken that,'' Whittingham said. ''We're not disappointed with where we are. Obviously, we're disappointed with the loss on Saturday, but we think we're in pretty good shape."

There were a lot of positives for Utah that can be taken out of those comments, but the fact that they are talking about it so much means the loss is clearly on their minds.  Even though Whittingham talks about not having a hangover, that's typically what happens after a loss like that one to USC.  He's right that they'd take being 6-1 right now because they are very fortunate to have six wins.

In fact, Utah has been outgained in four of its seven games this season.  That's the type of thing you would expect from a 3-4 team and not one that is 6-1.  I never once believed this team was a national title contender.  They are only outgaining opponents by 19.1 yards per game on the season, which is nowhere near what you would see from teams like Clemson, Ohio State and other real contenders.

Oregon State is just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS on the season, so it could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Beavers, which has created some artificial line inflation here as the oddsmakers know this.  I'll gladly take the 27 points here.

It also actually helps that Oregon State lost to Colorado 13-17 at home last week.  But the Beavers really dominated that game in outgaining the Buffaloes by 73 total yards.  Their offense came through with one of their best performances of the season in gaining 401 yards, while their defense also played one of its best games in giving up just 328 total yards.

The last two meetings between Utah and Oregon State have actually gone into overtime with the road team winning both times.  In fact, they have split the last six meetings in this series 3-3 and each has been decided by 19 points or less, so it has been closely contested.  I wouldn't be shocked at all if this one goes down to the wire as well even with the Beavers as 27-point dogs here.

One key to point out that may be getting overlooked is that Kilane Sitake is a first-year defensive coordinator at Oregon State.  That's important because Sitake was was an assistant at Utah for the last 11 years, including the last four as defensive coordinator.  He is very familiar with the Utes' offense and will have a great game plan to stop it.  That won't take much because the Utah offense is the weakness on the team, averaging only 390.1 yards per game.

Gary Anderson is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Oregon State is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent, actually coming back to win by an average of 4.7 points per game in this spot.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy +24

The Troy Trojans are just 2-5 on the season, but they played about as tough of an early schedule as anyone in the country.  That tough early schedule made them battle-tested and it is starting to pay off against lesser competition.  Indeed, the Trojans are coming off their best performance of the season in a 52-7 road win at New Mexico State as only 3-point favorites.  They racked up 482 yards of total offense in the win.

In its first five games, Troy had to play road games at NC State, Wisconsin and Mississippi State.  But it actually covered the spread in two of those three games, and not once did it lose by more than 28 points to any of those three teams.  Now the oddsmakers are asking the Trojans to stay within 24 points of Appalachian State on the road, and I don't believe that will be a problem because App State isn't as good as any of those three aforementioned teams.

Appalachian State is overvalued right now due to its 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS start against some very soft competitions.  Its lone loss came at Clemson 10-41, but its six wins have come against Howard, Old Dominion, Wyoming, Georgia State, LA Monroe and Georgia Southern.  Those are some of the worst teams in the entire country, so I'm not willing to give the Mountaineers that much credit for them.

There's no doubt that the Mountaineers' 31-13 home win over Georgia Southern last week was impressive.  They covered the 6.5-point spread with ease, which was their third straight ATS victory, which has them overvalued.  It also has the Mountaineers in a huge letdown spot here off such a big win.  Everyone was calling that game against Georgia Southern the "defacto Sun Belt Championship", and that was probably the case.  But just as big of a game against Sun Belt contender Arkansas State looms on deck next week, so this is the ultimate sandwich game.  Look for the Mountaineers to come out flat in this one.

Despite such a tough schedule, Troy's defense is only giving up 26.9 points, 378.7 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Its biggest improvement this season has come on defense, and the stop unit gives it a chance to be competitive in this game against Appalachian State.  But QB Brandon Silvers also gives the Trojans a fighting chance.  He's completing 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,046 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record, 9-4 ATS after accumulating 450 or more total yards in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mountaineers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 yards in their previous game.  Roll with Troy Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -1.5

The Florida Gators continue to be undervalued this week as only 3-point favorites over the reeling Georgia Bulldogs. I know that both teams still have a lot to play for and the winner will control their own destiny in the SEC East, but the fact of the matter is that the Gators are the better team in 2015. I look for them to get the job done in Jacksonville and for them to take a commanding lead in the division.

Florida has some seriously impressive wins this season. It beat Tennessee 28-27 at home, followed by a 38-10 home win over national title contender Ole Miss, and then a 21-3 road win at Missouri. Even in the game the Gators lost they gave LSU all they could handle on the road, and Baton Rouge is no easy place to play. This was a 28-28 game in the fourth quarter before LSU got a game-winning fake field goal for a TD to win 35-28.

Georgia’s last three games are great for comparing it to Florida. The Bulldogs lost 10-38 at home to Alabama, which is the same team that Ole Miss beat 43-37 on the road, and that’s the same Ole Miss team Florida beat 38-10 at home. The Bulldogs also lost 31-38 at Tennessee, while the Gators beat the Vols 28-27 at home. Georgia only beat Missouri 9-6 at home, while Florida beat Missouri 21-3 on the road. These common opponents show that the Gators have a huge edge here.

Yes, the loss of QB Will Grier certainly hurts the Gators, but I don’t think it’s as big of a loss as it’s perceived to be. Treon Harris has plenty of starting experience and came through with one of the best performances of his career at LSU. He threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in the loss. Again, Baton Rouge is an extremely difficult place to play.

The bigger loss is Georgia’s Nick Chubb, who is one of the best backs in the country. The Bulldogs never recovered once Chubb went out with an injury in the loss to Tennessee. Then, their offense was really held in check in their first game without him against Missouri. They only won that game 9-6 and gained just 298 total yards against the Tigers, including 120 rushing on 45 carries. That’s an average of just 2.7 yards per carry and shows that they really miss Chubb.

Harris led the Gators to a 38-20 upset win over Georgia last season as they racked up 445 yards of total offense.  This was a down Florida team last year and one that is nowhere near as good as it is this season.  It was also a Georgia team last year that isn't nearly as good as the one that will be on the field in the 2015 meeting.  Chubb rushed for 156 yards and a touchdown on the Gators last year and will be missed.

Grayson Lambert has been playing so poorly that Georgia is desperate enough to start third-string QB Faton Bauta, who will be making his first career start.  Bauta has seen very limited action and is the Bulldogs' holder on extra points.  This isn't the kind of defense you want to be up against when you're making your first start.

The Gators are only giving up 17.3 points, 314.4 yards per game and 4.7 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.4 points, 412 yards per game and 5.9 per play. So, the Gators are holding their opponents to 12.1 points, 98 yards and 1.2 per play less than their season averages.

Florida is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 road games following a bye week. The Gators are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games following one or more consecutive games that went over the total. Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Auburn ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -7

These are two teams heading in opposite directions both in the standings and emotionally right now. Ole Miss is coming off a huge season-saving 23-3 win over Texas A&M in an absolutely dominant effort. The Rebels outgained the Aggies by 279 yards and held them to just 192. They still control their own destiny in the SEC West because if they win out, they will win the division.

At 1-3 within the conference, Auburn has nothing to play for but pride. The Tigers did show plenty of pride in their game against Arkansas last week, but the way they lost will take a lot out of them emotionally and physically. Losing a four-overtime thriller 46-54 to the Razorbacks had to be draining. I look for the Tigers to suffer a big-time hangover this week as they aren’t able to get back up off the mat in time to beat an Ole Miss team with much bigger aspirations.

The Rebels should be favored in every game from here on out as they play road games at Auburn and Mississippi State, which are the two worst teams in the SEC West. They play two of the better teams in Arkansas and LSU at home. I really like their chances of winning out and winning the SEC West. I still believe this is the best team in the entire SEC even with two losses on the season already.

Ole Miss has been putting up the types of numbers you would expect from a team capable of winning the SEC. It is averaging 41.0 points, 514.7 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that allow 33.6 points, 428 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Defensively, it is holding opponents to 19.7 points, 338.5 yards per game and 4.3 per play against teams that average 26.3 points, 392 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Auburn has put up the kind of numbers you would expect from a rebuilding team, which is exactly what it is. The Tigers average just 363.1 yards per game offensively and give up 430.6 yards per game defensively, getting outgained by an average of 67.5 yards per game. In fact, the Tigers have been outgained in six of their seven games this season. That includes games against Jacksonville State, Kentucky and San Jose State.

Ole Miss is going to want revenge from a 35-31 home loss to Auburn last year. The Rebels were going in for the game-winning score before Laquan Treadwell fumbled at the 1-yard line and suffered a season-ending injury in the process. Treadwell has come back stronger than ever this year, leading the SEC with 54 catches for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, it helps to have a guy like Chad Kelly throwing him the ball. Kelly is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,475 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.

Treadwell spent several months rehabbing, and he said the emotional aspect of this rematch hit him immediately once Ole Miss finished its win against Texas A&M and he realized Auburn was next.  "They're going to feel my pain," he said. "I'm just going to play my hardest, play with heart like I did last week and my team will do the same and we hope to get the W."

Senior linebacker C.J. Johnson returned against Texas A&M after missing two weeks because of a knee injury.  His presence was felt immediately when he recovered a fumble early in that game.  The best defensive player in the entire SEC is DT Robert Nkemdiche, who has missed most of the past two games due to a concussion.  But coach Hugh Freeze said that Nkemdiche is expected to return this week.

Ole Miss is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games after committing four or more turnovers in its previous game. Auburn is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games, 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record, 0-7 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last two seasons, and 1-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game over the last two years.  These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the Rebels.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +25

The Old Dominion Monarchs are the only team in the country that has yet to cover a spread this season.  They are 0-7 against the spread in 2015.  If you've followed me, you know I like backing teams who are on extended ATS losing streaks because there is artificial inflation in their lines.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, and the oddsmakers know this so they are forced to tack extra points onto the favorite to try and get equal action on both sides of the game.

But Old Dominion is a better team than its 0-7 ATS mark shows.  It has gone 3-4 straight up and is more than capable of staying within 25 points of Western Kentucky this week at home.  Its four losses have come to some good teams in NC State, Appalachian State, Marshall, and Florida International.  It lost by 24 to NC State at home and by 20 at Marshall.  But that game at Marhsall was closer than the final score showed as the Monarchs were only outgained by 39 yards.

Also adding to this line inflation was a 12-41 loss at Florida International last week.  Sure, that score looks awful, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was much closer.  Old Dominion actually outgained FIU 498-448 for the game, or by 50 total yards.  That's right, the Monarchs nearly gained 500 yards of offense yet were held to only 12 points, which is a complete fluke.  Had they not been "blown out" last week, they wouldn't be catching 25 points this week.

Western Kentucky is a quality team and one of the best in Conference USA.  But asking the Hilltoppers to go on the road and win by more than 25 points to cover this spread is asking too much.  That's especially the case considering the awful spot the Hilltoppers are in this week.

They treated the game against LSU last week as their Super Bowl.  They hung tough for a half but were eventually blown out by a final of 20-48.  After that trip to Baton Rouge, which is one of the toughest and coolest places in the country, the Hilltoppers can't help but suffer an emotional hangover here.  They won't be up for Old Dominion at all and will feel like they just have to show up to win.

The Hilltoppers are also beat up defensively after that physical game against LSU.  Now they'll be facing an Old Dominion rushing attack that produced 297 yards against FIU last week.  ODU has rushed for at least 184 yards in four of its seven games this season and averages 4.8 yards per carry.  WKU gives up 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Hilltoppers have allowed at least 176 rushing yards in five of their eight games.  They also haven't had a bye week yet, so they have to be running out of gas.

Old Dominion wants revenge from a 51-66 road loss to Western Kentucky last year.  This was a shootout in every sense of the word as both teams racked up more than 600 yards of offense.  The Monarchs actually outgained the Hilltoppers 643-601 for the game.  But the difference was that WKU scored two non-offensive touchdown with one kick return and one interception return for a TD.  I'm banking on the Hilltoppers not getting those breaks again.

WKU is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the past three seasons.  The Hilltoppers are 2-10 ATS in road games after playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored over the last three years.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -4.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions should be much bigger favorites at home against the Illinois Fighting Illini this week.  There is a lot of value with the Nittany Lions in laying less than a touchdown at home here.

While it hasn't been pretty at times, the fact of the matter is that Penn State is 6-2 this season and one of the best teams in the big Ten.  The struggles have been on the road with losses to Temple and Ohio State, two teams who are a combined 14-0 right now.  They also barely beat a Maryland team last week that had two weeks to prepare for Penn State and a new head coach, which had their team inspired.

But that 31-30 win by the Nittany Lions has them undervalued here because it was a bad spot for them.  Keep in mind that they were coming off a crushing loss to Ohio State the previous week.  It's always hard to come back from a loss to the defending national champion.  But because that game against Maryland was close, it has kept this line lower than it should be.  Look for a renewed focus for the Nittany Lions this week.

It has been a completely different story for Penn State at home.  It is 5-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game.  Its defense has been especially dominant at home, giving up just 11.8 points and 269.6 yards per game this season.

Illinois has also played much better at home than on the road.  It is 4-1 at home with its lone loss coming to Wisconsin last week by a final of 24-13.  It had to be disappointing that the Fighting Illini didn't win that game because they had two full weeks to prepare for the Badgers, yet still lost by double-digits.  That makes this a bad spot for them.

But Illinois is 0-2 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.5 points per game.  Its defense has been shredded for 38.5 points and 474.5 yards per game on the road.  It lost 14-48 at North Carolina on the road back in Week 3.  It also lost 20-29 at Iowa two games ago.  That games against Iowa was relatively close, keep in mind that Iowa was coming off a big win against Wisconsin the previous week, so it was a letdown spot for the Hawkeyes.

Penn State's three poor performances this season have come against dual-threat quarterbacks as well in Temple, Ohio State and Maryland.  Fortunately, Illinois has a pocket passer in Wes Lunt.  That's going to be key because the Nittany Lions lead the country with 31 sacks.  Carl Nassib leads the NCAA with 12.5 sacks on his own and came up with a huge sack late against Maryland to preserve the win.  That makes this an excellent machup for the Nittany Lions as they should be in Lunt's grill all day, and he's not going to be able to use his legs to beat them.

Illinois is missing a couple of key weapons on offense, too.  The Fighting Illini are expected to be without starting tight end Tyler White due to a knee injury.  Starting running back Josh Ferguson is also expected to miss his third straight game with a shoulder injury.  They were already without their top receiver from last year in Mike Dudek.  The injuries just keep piling up for this offense.

Penn State wants revenge from a 14-16 loss at Illinois last year as well.  It should have no problem getting it considering the Nittany Lions are 4-0 the next season following a loss to Illinois with an average margin of victory of 12.0 points per game.  They are also 8-1 in their last nine home meetings with Illinois.

James Franklin is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won as a favorite in all games he has coached.  His teams are coming back to win by an average of 23.6 points per game in this spot.  I'll back this 100% never lost system here with Franklin and the Nittany Lions.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* CFB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming +27

Because they are just 1-7 on the season with one win, the Wyoming Cowboys have been grossly undervalued here in recent weeks.  As a result, they have been able to go 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oddsmakers are continuing to undervalue them as 27-point underdogs here to the Utah State Aggies.

In fact, Wyoming hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points all season.  That 20-point loss came last week as a 33.5-point road underdog to Boise State.  The Cowboys lost that game 14-34.  If they can stay within 20 of Boise State, there's no question they can hang with Utah State for four quarters and stay within 27.

The key here is that Utah State isn't an explosive offensive team and will struggle to cover this big spread because of it.  The Aggies were held to just 239 total yards in a 14-48 loss at San Diego State last week.  They are only averaging 338.1 yards per game this season, including 172 passing.  Their offense is sub-par to say the least.

Wyoming running back Brian Hill became the fastest running back in Wyoming history to reach 1,000 rushing yards this season.  The Cowboys ride him hard, and he should be able to find plenty of success on the ground against a Utah State defense that yielded a whopping 336 rushing yards to San Diego State last week.

Last year, Utah State beat Wyoming 20-3 on the road as 7.5-point favorites.  While this was a 17-point game, it was much closer than that as Wyoming actually outgained Utah State 363-356 for the game.  To only come away with three points with 363 yards of offense is really hard to do.  Look for the Cowboys to capitalize on more of their opportunities this time around as this one is closer than expected.

Utah State is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more.  The Aggies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games off a loss by 28 points or more.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Wyoming Friday.

20* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami +9

The Miami Dolphins have been a completely different team under Dan Campbell. His passion for the game has really rubbed off on his players, and to a man, every player is taking accountability. It’s really been one of the best transformations of a team I’ve ever seen when a head coach has been fired midseason like Joe Philbin was. I don’t expect these players to slow down any time soon, especially against rival New England this week.

Miami went on the road and throttled Tennessee 38-10 in Campbell’s first game. The offense produced 434 total yards including 180 rushing as they got back to being physical. Lamar Miller had 113 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, and Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 29 passes for 266 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The defense forced four turnovers by the Titans as they outgained them by 135 yards.

Last week against the Texans was even more impressive from the Dolphins as they crushed a solid team. They led 41-0 at halftime and wound up winning 44-26 after the Texans scored 26 points in garbage time after intermission with the game well out of reach. They racked up 503 total yards of offense with 248 rushing, including 175 and a touchdown from Miller. Tannehill had one of his best games as a pro, completing 18 of 19 passes for 282 yards and four touchdowns. They outgained the Texans by 181 total yards in the win.

New England is overvalued right now because it has gone 6-0 SU & 3-1-2 ATS thus far to make the betting public who backs them on a regular basis some decent money. But the last two weeks the Patriots have been vulnerable. They only won 34-27 at Indianapolis while outgaining the Colts by only eight yards. They also won 30-23 at home against the Jets last week while getting outgained by 19 yards. I think the Dolphins, with the way they are playing right now, can certainly stay within a touchdown of the Patriots like the Colts and Jets did.

Miami has played New England extremely tough the last two years. In 2013, they lost 17-27 at New England after having a 17-3 lead at halftime. They outgained the Patriots 301-252 for the game. They beat the Patriots 24-20 at home in 2013 and 33-20 at home in 2014. Then last year, they were only down 14-13 at halftime to the Patriots on the road but went on to lose 41-13 despite only getting outgained 384-395.

So the Dolphins have been on the verge of pulling the upset on the road at the half each of the last two years. I finally believe they have the mental strength now to get over that hurdle and finish the deal. The Dolphins are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Miami is 39-23 ATS in its last 62 road games after covering the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  Bet the Dolphins Thursday.

15* WVU/TCU Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia +14.5

The Mountaineers are one of the best teams in the country to have a record of .500 or worse right now. That record can be attributed to a very tough schedule in Big 12 play to start. The Mountaineers have had to play road games at Oklahoma and Baylor, and they lost a home game to Oklahoma State in overtime. Baylor and Oklahoma State are still undefeated, while Oklahoma has just one loss.

TCU has been vulnerable this season and should not be favored by two touchdowns against this solid WVU outfit. The Horned Frogs already have three very close wins over Minnesota (23-17), Texas Tech (55-52) and Kansas State (52-45). West Virginia is better than all three of those teams and can hang with the Horned Frogs in this one because of it.

TCU has played Stephen F. Austin, Texas and SMU at home this season. It even was in a dogfight with SMU for four quarters before scoring the final two touchdowns of the game to pull out a 56-37 victory as 37-point favorites. West Virginia will be by far the best team that TCU has faced not only at home, but for the entire season as well.

The numbers show that West Virginia really is a great team. It is putting up 36.3 points and 485 yards per game against opposing defenses that only allow 26.9 points and 384 yards per game. It is also giving up 27.0 points and 401 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 39.2 points and 484 yards per game.

While TCU was expected to have a great offense this season and that has proven to be the case, its defense certainly is nowhere near to the level it was last season. The Horned Frogs are giving up 26.6 points and 397 yards per game against opposing offenses that only average 25.8 points and 374 yards per game.

The road team has gone 3-0 SU the last three years in meetings between these teams as Big 12 opponents with all three decided by a field goal or less. West Virginia went to TCU and won 30-27 as 11-point underdogs in 2013. The Mountaineers are going to want revenge from their 30-31 home loss to the Horned Frogs as 3.5-point dogs last year. They held them to just 389 total yards in that loss.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that has covered the spread in two of their last three games are 224-143 (61%) ATS since 1992. The Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Roll with West Virginia Thursday.

20* UNC/Pitt ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +2

It’s a little bit surprising to me that North Carolina is actually favored on the road in this one. The Tar Heels are certainly improved from last year and brought a lot of talent back. Their defensive improvement has made the biggest difference this year behind coordinator Gene Chizik. But the Tar Heels should not be favored in this one.

Pittsburgh has played a more difficult schedule this year. It has played five of its first seven games on the road, which makes its 6-1 record that much more impressive. Its only loss came at Iowa by a final of 24-27 on a last-second field goal. Iowa is still unbeaten at 7-0 on the season. The Panthers have also gone on the road and beaten Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Akron.

North Carolina has taken advantage of an easy early schedule. It has only played one true road game this season, which was a 38-31 win at Georgia Tech. It has played five of its first seven games at home, and those five were against NC A&T, Illinois, Delaware, Wake Forest and Virginia. Its lone loss came against South Carolina by a final of 17-13 on a neutral field. We’ve all seen how poor the Gamecocks are this year since that game.

Pittsburgh is going to want some revenge here after losing to the Tar Heels by a touchdown or less each of the past two seasons. The Panthers racked up 523 total yards on the Tar Heels and outgained them despite losing 35-40 on the road last year. Pat Narduzzi’s team is improved this year and a legitimate threat to win the ACC.

This Pittsburgh defense has been dynamite under Narduzzi. It is only giving up 21.6 points, 309 yards per game and 5.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.6 points, 382 yards per game and 5.6 per play. So this defense is holding opposing offenses to 9.0 points and 73 yards per game less than their season averages.

UNC’s defense is improved, but you have to consider the ease of the schedule in which it has played. The Tar Heels are only giving up 350 yards per game defensively, but when you see that opposing offenses only average 346 yards per game on the season, it’s not that impressive. This is pretty much just an average Tar Heels defense that has taken advantage of their schedule.

The Tar Heels are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following four or more consecutive wins. North Carolina is 22-38 ATS in its last 60 games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Panthers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Pittsburgh Thursday.

20* Ravens/Cardinals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore +9

Despite being 1-5 on the season, the Ravens still have 10 games left.  Some say they'll pack it in, but that's not going to happen with more than half a season left.  It's also not going to happen under John Harbaugh, who is one of the best motivators in the game today.  It's certainly not going to happen this week on the biggest stage in the NFL on ESPN's Monday Night Football.

Baltimore could easily be 5-1 right now instead of 1-5.  Its five losses have come by a combined 22 points this season, and it has not lost once by more than 6 points all year.  That fact alone shows that there is value in backing the Ravens on this 9-point spread.  They have played a tough schedule this year, too, as this will be their 5th road games in 7 weeks to start the season.  They know that with a home-heavy schedule coming up, they can make a run.

Arizona is way overvalued right now due to posting some blowout wins against bad teams.  In fact, Arizona's four wins this season have come against New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, and Detroit, four teams who are a combined 7-17 on the season.  Not one of those teams is better than 2-4.  While the Ravens are 1-5, there's no question they are better than their record.

The betting public hasn't won a game yet when they've backed the Ravens.  That's because they are 0-5-1 against the spread on the season.  Because the public hasn't won on them, they are afraid to back them and automatically shift to the favored Cardinals.  But that has created some artificial line value for us to swoop in and back the Ravens. Again, this team hasn't lost by more than 6 points all season.

There is a nice system that goes right along with that way of thinking.  Plays on road teams (BALTIMORE) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a losing record are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Another is plays on road teams (BALTIMORE) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 years.  These teams on long ATS losing streaks are almost always undervalued.

"We have what it takes. We just have to get better, and we're going to find a way to do it," Harbaugh said.  I like the way he's thinking coming into this one, and I believe his players will buy in.  I also like the fact that Harbaugh is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or four of his last six games as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are actually winning these games by 9.8 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* Eagles/Panthers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are finally playing up to their potential now. They are coming off back-to-back blowout victories over the New Orelans Saints and New York Giants by a combined 66-24 margin. They have done so despite committing six combined turnovers in the two games. After giving up a touchdown to the Giants on their opening possession, the Eagles went on to commit four turnovers, but the defense managed to prevent the Giants from scoring off of any of them.

This Eagles defense is hitting on all cylinders right now, getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks at an alarming rate. They have forced seven turnovers the past two weeks and will be getting after Cam Newton again in this one. They also held the Giants to just 247 total yards. Limiting the Saints and Giants to an average of 12.0 points per game the past two weeks is no small feat.

Philadelphia’s offense is starting to find its stride, too. It gained 185 rushing yards against the Saints and 155 against the Giants as DeMarco Murray has had much more room to operate behind improved offensive line play the past two weeks. The amazing thing is that the Eagles have committed 14 turnovers through six games, so if they start taking care of the football, they are going to be extremely dangerous going forward.  They also could be 5-1 as two of their losses came to Atlanta and Washington by a combined 5 points on the road when they held leads in the closing minutes.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Panthers. They put a lot into their game against the Seahawks last week. They had two weeks to prepare as they were coming off their bye, and they clearly wanted revenge from their loss in the NFC Championship Game. Despite trailing 20-7 in the second half, they managed to come back and win 27-23 in the final seconds. It was the fourth time this season that the Seahawks lost after leading in the fourth quarter. Off such an emotional win, it’s only human nature for the Panthers to suffer a letdown this week.

Philadelphia has owned Carolina in recent meetings. It is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Panthers, winning three times by 22 or more points. That includes a 45-21 home victory over the Panthers last season. Their defense held Carolina to just 317 total yards while forcing Cam Newton and company into five turnovers. Newton threw three picks and they also lost two fumbles.

The fact of the matter is that Carolina is overvalued due to its 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start. Its five wins have come against Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Seattle, who are a combined 9-20 this season. The Panthers have played the easiest schedule in the NFL when you look at the records of the teams they have faced. I still don’t believe this team is nearly as good as it is perceived to be, and the Eagles have the better team this season despite a worse record.

There’s no question the Eagles have the edge offensively in this one. They have averaged 33.0 points and 472.0 yards per game the past two weeks as they are hitting their stride. The Panthers only average 334.2 yards per game this season despite playing such a soft schedule. They still have all kinds of issues with their lack of playmakers outside. If they get behind in this one, they won’t have the ability to catch up.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +4.5

This line is a complete overreaction from the Dolphins’ win over the Titans last week. They hurt Marcus Mariota early with a low, dirty hit that hampered his performance the rest of the way. The Dolphins capitalized by coming up with four turnovers. It was a great spot to back the Dolphins because they were coming off a bye with a new head coach, but too much is being made of Dan Campbell. This has created some great line value to fade the Dolphins this week.

The Texans would be better than 2-4 if they had started Brian Hoyer every game. He answered the bell with 293 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars last week. Ryan Mallet has been awful, and Hoyer has been far and away the better quarterback. So with him going forward, and a healthy Arian Foster back, this Texans team is going to be a dangerous one the rest of the way.

Even with the uncertainty at quarterback up to this point, the Texans have put up the kind of numbers that would suggest they are much better than their 2-4 record. They have actually outgained four of their six opponents this year. They rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 45.0 yards per game. They’re in elite company as the top eight teams in yardage differential are the Jets, Chargers, Cardinals, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Bengals and Falcons, in that order.

While Houston’s defense has yet to live up to expectations, the offense has quietly been one of the best units in the NFL. The Texans rank 6th in the league in total offense at 393.8 yards per game this season. Again, that’s with Foster missing most of the season and Mallet at quarterback for half the games. Going forward, this offense has even more potential. DeAndre Hopkins has quietly been the best receiver in the NFL this year. He has 52 receptions for 726 yards and five touchdowns already.

When you compare Houston’s numbers to those of Miami, it’s not even close. Miami ranks 26th in the NFL in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 40.8 yards per game. Only the Browns, Raiders, Vikings, Rams, Colts and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some awful company. I don’t think that the Dolphins are magically fixed with Campbell as their head coach. Sure, they are playing with more fire now, but there are still a ton of issues with this team.

Houston has owned Miami, going 7-0 in the last seven meetings with the last two wins coming by an average of 15.0 points per game. The Dolphins are 17-34 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%. Miami is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. The Dolphins are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games overall.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +9.5

The New York Jets are the most underrated team in the National Football League this season. They are not only winning, they are dominating the opposition. They have outgained all five of their opponents this season, and in their only loss, they even outgained the Eagles by 92 yards. But they lost that game 17-24 at home thanks to an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles that proved to be the difference.

The numbers show that the Jets are one of the best teams in the NFL this season. All four of their wins have come by at least 13 points as they are outscoring the opposition by 10.8 points per game. But they also rank 1st in the entire NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 110.6 yards per game. That’s 31.9 yards per game better than second place.

The Jets lead the NFL in scoring defense (15.0 points/game) and total defense (269.2 yards/game). First-year head coach Todd Bowles has made a huge difference for this team, as have the additions of Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis on the outside. The Jets also recently got back DT Sheldon Richardson from a four-game suspension as he got some playing time against the Redskins last week in a dominant 34-20 win. This is the best defense in the NFL folks.

But what’s getting overlooked with the Jets is how improved their offense has been. Ryan Fitzpatrick is more than just a game manager, and he now has some ample weapons outside with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. The Jets are putting up 25.8 points and 379.8 yards per game to rank 8th in the NFL in total offense. But the key has been Chris Ivory and the ground game, which ranks 1st in the NFL at 146.0 rushing yards per contest.

A running game and a solid defense have allowed the Jets to play the Patriots extremely tough in recent years. In fact, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 3 points or less and by a combined 9 points. The Jets have held the Patriots to 232, 295, 313 and 231 yards in the last four meetings. That’s an average of 267.8 yards per game, which is might impressive when you consider what the Patriots are doing to everyone else. And now this is the best defense the Jets have had maybe ever.

This is a bad spot for New England. Sure, it will be up for this game because it’s a division game with first place on the line, but it put a lot into last week’s game against the Colts. Tom Brady and company wanted revenge for ‘Deflategate’, and while they downplayed it in the media after the game, it was clear that the win meant a lot to them. That was evident when Bill Belichick went over to Brady and hugged him after the win, and Brady even kept the game ball. That win meant a lot more to them than they are leading on.

The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC opponents. New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. AFC East foes. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to New England.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +3

It’s obvious right away that there is value in backing the Detroit Lions as a home underdog when you compare this line to the one in their first meeting back on September 20. Minnesota was a 2.5-point home favorite over Detroit in that game, and now Minnesota is a 3-point road favorite in the rematch. Based off the the line in their first meeting, the Lions should be 3 to 3.5-point favorites when adjusting for home field advantage. So we’re getting nearly 6 points of value here.

I like the mindset of the Lions after they battled the Bears for nearly five full quarters last week and were rewarded with a victory. They beat the Bears 37-34 (OT) in a game where they actually outgained them by 102 yards and should have won in regulation, but two muffed punts put them behind the eight ball.

The Lions exploded for 546 yards of total offense in the win. Matthew Stafford responded from getting benched the previous week with his best game of the year. He threw for 405 yards and four touchdowns with one interception, while the Lions also rushed for 155 yards as a team. Calvin Johnson showed that he’s still an elite receiver in this league, catching six balls for 166 yards and a touchdown. It’s certainly a performance that will lift the spirits of the team going forward.

Minnesota is overvalued due to its 4-1 ATS start, while Detroit is undervalued due to its 1-5 ATS start. The betting public has made a lot of money on the Vikings and will continue to ride them as a result, while they want nothing to do with the Lions due to their poor ATS results. That’s why we’re seeing the Vikings favored here when they shouldn’t be due to the oddsmakers adjusting to public perception.

The reality is that Minnesota is very fortunate to be 3-2 when you look at the numbers. The Vikings have been outgained in four of their five games this season. They actually rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 46.2 yards per game. To compare, Detroit is only getting outgained by 28.1 yards per game and is better than its 1-5 record would indicate.

A brutal schedule is the biggest reason for Detroit’s slow start. It has already had to play tough road games at San Diego, Minnesota and Seattle, while also playing Denver, Arizona and Chicago at home. In all reality, the Lions have had a chance to win in the fourth quarter of five of their six games. The only exception was a 17-42 loss to Arizona two weeks ago, but the Lions gave that game away with six turnovers. They actually outgained the Cardinals by 90 yards in the loss.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings. Indeed, the home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings. Minnesota is 23-40 ATS in its last 63 games as a road favorite. Detroit is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 home games when revenging a same-season loss to an opponent. Plays on home underdogs who failed to cover two of their last three games, with a winning percentage of 25% or less playing a team with a winning record are 123-66 (65.1%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Lions Sunday.

15* Utah/USC FOX Saturday No-Brainer on USC -3

I’m not ready to give up on the USC Trojans yet, and I don’t believe they have given up on themselves either. If they win out, they’ll still have a great shot to win the Pac-12 South, so their season is far from lost. But it starts with a win over Utah this week that would help turn their season around. It’s clear to me that their effort against Notre Dame showed that they are buying into interim coach Clay Helton, who also led them to a bowl victory over Fresno State two years ago, so the players trust him.

Indeed, USC arguably outplayed Notre Dame last week in its 31-41 road loss. The Trojans racked up 590 yards of total offense against a very good Fighting Irish defense, and they outgained them by 114 yards in the game. In fact, they have only been outgained once this season, and that was by 47 yards in a 31-41 home loss to Stanford. With the numbers this team is putting up, it’s clear to me that this is still one of the most talented teams in the country.

There’s no question in my mind that Utah is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Sure, the 6-0 start is solid, but the Utes have actually been outgained in three of their six games this season. They were outgained by Michigan, Utah State and California. They are only outgaining opponents by an average of 28.8 yards per game, which is not the sign of a national title contender. Their luck in the turnover department and special teams will come to an end here soon, and probably this week. They aren’t going to force 3.2 turnovers per game the rest of the way.

Meanwhile, USC has put up the kind of numbers that you would expect from a national title contender. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 108.2 yards per game this season. Its offense has been dynamite, and Helton is the offensive coordinator, so that’s not going to change any time soon. The Trojans are putting up 38.3 points, 510.7 yards per game and 7.5 per play. Utah, which is only averaging 396.3 yards per game and 5.6 per play, does not have the firepower to keep up with the Trojans.

Cody Kessler may be the best quarterback in the country, but he doesn’t get the kind of accolades he deserves. He is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 1,818 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. While USC clearly has the better offense, Utah only has a slight edge on defense. The Utes are giving up 19.5 points and 369.5 yards per game, while the Trojans are allowing 21.3 points and 402.5 yards per game.

USC is 9-1 ATS off one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. This team has been extremely resilient over the past couple seasons, and with a half a season left and the goal of winning the Pac-12 still within their grasp, I look for them to come back with a great effort this week.

"These kids want to go out and show the world how good they are and we plan on doing that in these last six games," Helton said.  You can bet that it's going to be a rowdy home crowd for this one with the No. 3 team in the country coming to town.  This is where the Trojans rally the troops and turn their season around.  Also, it's telling that USC is the favorite here despite being unranked and playing the No. 3 team.  Vegas agrees that the Trojans should be favored, and Utah is going to be a very public underdog this weekend.  Take USC Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +3

The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of the most improved teams in the country.  While their 2-4 record doesn't reflect that, the fact of the matter is that they have been competitive in every game they have played.  They could easily be better than that record.  Now the Commodores are going to put a lot into this game against Missouri because it's Homecoming, plus they are looking for their first SEC win under Derek Mason.

Mason had a very young team last year, but he returned 18 starters this season, which was tied for the most in the SEC.  I like what I've seen from this team.  They were only outgained by 22 yards in their 14-31 home loss to Georgia.  They only lost 16-27 at Ole Miss as 27-point dogs.  They beat a good Middle Tennessee team 17-13 on the road and outgained them by 94 yards.  They also should have beaten Western Kentucky in a 12-14 home loss as they outgained the Hilltoppers by 147 yards.

Turnovers have hurt the Commodores, so if they can fix that problem they will win more games in a hurry.  They have committed 16 turnovers already, including five in the loss to South Carolina last week.  Look for ball security to be a priority this week, and if they take care of the football, they are a better team than Missouri and will win this game.

The Vanderbilt offense is certainly improved this year as it's averaging 400.3 yards per game against a pretty tough schedule.  But the defense is the strength of this team.  The Commodores are only giving up 18.5 points, 338.2 yards per game and 5.0 per play against teams that average 30.8 points, 410 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  So they are holding opponents to 12.3 points, 72 yards and 1.0 per play less than their season averages.

Missouri has one of the worst offenses in the country.  It ranks 116th in offensive efficiency as it is putting up just 16.6 points and 290.4 yards per game.  To compare, Kansas is the worst Power 5 team in this category at 120th.  The Tigers have been held to 9, 13, 24, 3 and 6 points over the past five weeks.  Vanderbilt boasts a top-20 defense in terms of efficiency.  Holding Western Kentucky to 12 points and Ole Miss to 27 is no small feat.

The Tigers are in a very poor state of mind right now.  They miraculously won the SEC East each of the last two seasons, which was completely a fluke.  Now they already have 3 SEC losses and no chance of winning the division.  I really question their motivation the rest of the way, especially after their 6-9 road loss to Georgia last week in which they managed just 164 yards of total offense.  It's going to be hard for them to get up for Vanderbilt this week.

The Commodores are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Commodores are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Vanderbilt is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 conference games.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -3

Virginia Tech is just 3-4 but is listed as a favorite over a ranked team this week.  I believe the oddsmakers have this one right, and that the Hokies should be bigger favorites.  They are a better team than Duke despite what the records say, and they certainly should be favored by more at home as a result.

The Hokies get back quarterback Michael Brewer, who almost led a comeback at Miami last week.  Remember, with a healthy Brewer, the Hokies led Ohio State 17-14 at the half here in Blacksburg.  Then Brewer got injured, and the wheels proceeded to fall off for the Hokies.

Virginia Tech is still very much alive in the ACC Coastal Division with just two conference losses.  It has faced the 33rd-toughest schedule in the country up to this point, while Duke has faced the 109th-toughest.  That's why the Blue Devils are 5-1 at this point.

Virginia Tech's five wins have come against Tulane, NC Central, Georgia Tech, Boston College and Army.  Its only loss came against the best team it played in Northwestern.  It also lost that game at home by a final of 10-19.  I would argue that Virginia Tech is the best team that the Blue Devils have faced yet.

The Hokies are 13-1 in their last 14 meetings with the Blue Devils.  Their only loss was very fluky in 2013.  They lost 10-13 despite outgaining the Blue Devils 387-198, or by 189 total yards.  They committed four turnovers in that game which allowed the Blue Devils to win.  But they went on the road last year and beat Duke, and I expect them to improve to 14-1 in the last 15 meetings with a comfortable home victory in 2015.

Frank Beamer is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 17 or more points per game as the head coach of Virginia Tech.  Beamer is 15-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 14 or fewer points per game as the coach of the Hokies.  The Hokies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami +7.5

The Clemson Tigers have taken advantage of a favorable schedule to get to 6-0 at this point. While they have played some quality opponents such as Notre Dame, the fact of the matter is that five of its first six games have been at home. The Tigers do not lose at home often, so it’s not surprising that they are 6-0 right now.

In their only road game this season, the Tigers only beat Louisville 20-17 as 5-point favorites. That’s the same Louisville team that already has four losses on the season and clearly is not as good as most were expecting coming into the season. Asking the Tigers to go on the road and beat a better team than Louisville in Miami by a touchdown this week is asking too much.

Miami has played the more difficult schedule as it has already had three road games this season. Both of its losses came on the road to Cincinnati and Florida State, which are two quality teams. The Hurricanes only lost 24-29 at Florida State as 6-point underdogs and led that game in the 4th quarter with a chance to pull off the upset, showing what they were capable of.

The Hurricanes are a perfect 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 19.3 points per game. They beat Nebraska 36-33 in overtime in a game they led by 23 points in the fourth quarter, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Hurricanes racked up 397 total yards in a 30-20 home win over Virginia Tech last week as well.

You have to give Al Golden some credit because he is preaching ball security and a ball-hawking defense, and his team is listening. The Hurricanes have only turned the ball over twice this season while getting 15 takeaways, going +13 in turnover differential to this point. Turnovers will likely decide this game, so I’ll be glad to back the team that is taking better care of the football. Clemson has committed at least one turnover in all six games and 12 for the season.

Miami’s offense is getting it done this year with averages of 33.7 points, 443.8 yards per game and 6.4 per play. Sophomore QB Brad Kaaya is playing like a seasoned vet, completing 61.2 percent of his passes for 1,795 yards and a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. The two best passing offenses that Clemson faced were Notre Dame and Louisville. They gave up 253 passing yards to Louisville and 321 to Notre Dame.

Kaaya should have a big game Saturday as he's the best quarterback that Clemson has faced.  The Hurricanes rank 4th out of 65 Power 5 teams in passing offense efficiency.  Notre Dame is 13th and DeShone Kizer threw for 321 yards at Clemson, and keep in mind that game was played in the rain.

Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following six or more consecutive straight up wins. It is actually losing 29.7 to 32.9 on average in this spot. There’s no question that the Tigers are overvalued due to their 6-0 start. Al Golden is 14-3 ATS as a home underdog in all games he has coached. The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +16

The Charlotte 49ers aren't a team that the betting public wants anything to do with.  This is their first season in the FBS, so the public isn't familiar with them at all.  That's why they are going to always have a few extra points tacked onto their lines, because if the public plays 49ers games, they will be taking the opponent 80-plus percent of the time.

It hasn't been a great start for Charlotte as an FBS member as it is just 2-4.  But I've seen enough from this team to know that it can hang with 4-3 Southern Miss Saturday.  Take away turnovers, and the 49ers would would have one or two more wins right now.  They have committed a ridiculous 24 turnovers in six games, or an average of four per game.  That's why some of their scores were bigger blowouts than they should have been.

Charlotte opened the season with a 23-20 win at Georgia State  and a 34-10 home win over Presbyterian.  But then it committed seven turnovers apiece in its next two games against Middle Tennessee and FAU.  It only lost to FAU 7-17 as 10-point dogs even with those seven turnovers.  Its 3-37 loss to Temple was certainly closer than the final score.  The 49ers actually outgained the Owls by 32 yards in that game.  That's very impressive when you consider Temple is 7-0 right now an nationally ranked.

In fact, the 49ers have outgained five of their six opponents this season.  When you do that, you should go somewhere around 5-1, but the luck hasn't been on their side in the turnover department.  I liked what I saw from this team in a 34-37 loss at Old Dominion last week.  They racked up 536 yards of total offense and outgained the Monarchs by 54 yards.

Southern Miss is certainly an improved team this season, but I don't see any way it should be laying 16 points on the road to a team that has outgained five of six opponents.  I have not been impressed with the Eagles on the road this year.  They are 1-2 away from home with a 10-31 loss to Marshall.  Their only road win came at Texas State in overtime by a final of 56-50, and I believe Texas State is a very comparable team to Charlotte.  Their four wins have come against Austin Peay, North Texas, UTSA and Texas State with three of those coming at home.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1992.  Southern Miss is simply way overvalued right now due to starting 6-1 against the spread through its first seven games of the year.  The betting public has caught on, and now it's time to face the Eagles.  The Golden Eagles are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 conference games.  Take Charlotte Saturday.

15* Utah State/SDSU ESPN 2 Friday Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +5

The Utah State Aggies are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 52-26 home victory over the Boise State Broncos last week, pulling the upset as 7.5-point underdogs.  The Broncos had won 12 straight in that series, so the Aggies put a lot into that game trying to end that streak.  They will now come out flat a week later against San Diego State.

Sure, the final score was 52-26 last week against Boise, but that game was gift-wrapped by the Broncos.  They committed a ridiculous eight turnovers, and no team is going to win when giving the ball away that many times.  Boise State would be Utah State nine out of 10 times, but this was simply the Aggies' night.

The Aggies have now forced a combined 17 turnovers in their last four games, but their luck will run out tonight.  San Diego State has committed one or fewer turnovers in five of their seven games this year.  Head coach Rocky Long is great at getting his offense to value the football and relying on their defense to help win games.

Quietly, San Diego State has been playing some of the best football in the country during its 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS run.  It beat Fresno State 21-7 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the score showed as the Aztecs outgained the Bulldogs by 320 yards.  They outgained Hawaii by 151 yards in a 28-14 road win, and it's never easy coming away with a victory on the Islands.  Then last week, they went on the road and beat a solid San Jose State team 30-7 while outgained the Spartans by 229 yards.

Without question, the Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the country.  They gave up just 89 total yards to Fresno State, 251 to Hawaii, and 148 to San Jose State the last three weeks.  They have given up just 9.3 points and 162.7 yards per game to those three teams, which is absolutely ridiculous.  The Utah State offense is only averaging 354.7 yards per game, and it will be in for a long day against Long's bunch.

Former Kentucky transfer Maxwell Smith is settling in at quarterback and making plays when he needs to.  He completed 73.3 percent of his passes against Hawaii and 71.4 against SJSU in his last two games.  He has a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season, so he's not hurting the team.  This offense relies on one of the most underrated backs in the country in Donnel Pumphrey, who has already rushed for 729 yards and eight touchdowns.  Chase Price (424 yards, 5.3/carry) has also been a nice compliment to him out of the backfield.

Plays against a road team (UTAH ST) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 33-7 (82.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Utah State is just 1-2 on the road this season with its only win at Fresno State.  The Aztecs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  Take San Diego State Friday.

20* Memphis/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +10.5

Memphis could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now off that huge 37-24 win over Ole Miss. The Tigers moved all the way up to No. 18 in the Top 25 rankings after previously being unranked. The betting public is quick to back this team now because they are undefeated taking on a Tulsa team that has lost three of its last four.

But this is the ultimate letdown spot for Memphis. That win over Ole Miss was arguably the biggest in school history, and it’s only human nature to suffer a letdown off such a huge victory. The players will be receiving pats on the back all week for their efforts against Ole Miss, and I expect them to fail to show up with the kind of focus it’s going to take to beat Tulsa by double-digits.

Meanwhile, Tulsa could not possibly be more motivated now after losing three of its last four coming in. It will relish the opportunity to play in front of its home fans on the ESPN stage Friday night in what will be a hostile atmosphere. When you look at the quality of opponents faced recently, it’s easy to see why Tulsa last lost three of four.

Indeed, the three losses have come against East Carolina, Oklahoma and Houston. Both Oklahoma and Houston are ranked, while East Carolina has beaten Virginia Tech and nearly upset both Florida and BYU on the road. Tulsa only lost to Oklahoma and Houston by 14 points each, and it actually outgained ECU by 81 yards in its 17-30 road loss in a game that was much closer than the final score showed. The Golden Hurricane were going in for a score against ECU early in the 1st quarter, but then had an interception returned 100 yards for a touchdown. They weren’t able to recover.

The Golden Hurricane have the offensive firepower this season to keep up with the Tigers. They are putting up 33.3 points and 550.5 yards per game against opponents that only allow 27.9 points and 404 yards per game. They scored 38 on Oklahoma, 40 on New Mexico and 47 on Florida Atlantic. Dane Evans hast thrown for 2,127 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 8.8 per attempt.  He'll be able to keep up with Paxton Lynch and company.

Neither team has a very good defense, and Memphis is clearly down this year on that side of the ball after bringing back just three starters from last year’s solid stop unit. The Tigers are giving up 445.3 yards per game this season. Tulsa is going to be able to score with Memphis Friday night, which will help it stay within this 11-point spread.

Tulsa had won four straight meetings with Memphis before losing 20-40 on the road last year. But that game was much closer than the final score as the Tigers only outgained the Golden Hurricane 426-411. Evans threw for 349 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against Memphis last year, and again, that Memphis defense was much better than the version he will be up against in 2015.  With 16 starters back for Tulsa and only 11 for Memphis, I think the home team is primed to get revenge here.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TULSA) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-79 (65.9%) ATS since 1992. Memphis is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games following two or more consecutive straight up wins. The Golden Hurricane are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

15* Cal/UCLA ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on California +3.5

The Cal Golden Bears are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They could easily be 6-0 right now if they hadn’t turned the ball over six times at Utah last time out. They still only lost that game 24-30 and were driving for the winning score late before their 6th turnover. To play make that many mistakes and still have a chance to win against the No. 3 team in the country just shows how far this team has come.

The good news is that California has actually played its best football on the road this year. It beat Texas 45-44 in what was a 21-point game in the 4th quarter before a desperate comeback by the Longhorns late. They beat Washington 30-24 on the road in a game that was also a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bears outgained the Huskies by 222 total yards. They outgained the Utes by 32 yards in their 24-30 loss last time out as well.

One of the biggest reasons to back California this week is that it will be the more rested team. It last played on Saturday, October 10, while UCLA last played on Thursday, October 15. So the Bears get five extra days to prepare for this game. UCLA is beaten up right now after giving up 310 rushing yards in its 35-56 road loss at Stanford last week. That was a 56-20 game before two touchdowns by the Bruins in garbage time, too.  It’s going to be tough to come back off such a physical game.

That loss to Stanford along with a 23-38 home loss to Arizona State as 12.5-point favorites shows that UCLA is really not as good as many expected it would be this season. The Bruins were also outgained by 123 yards by Arizona State in that loss. Their defense has given up 30-plus points in all three Pac-12 games and an average of 41.3 points per game.  It doesn't help that they're missing three of their best players in LB Myles Jack, CB Fabian Moreau and DT Eddie Vanderdoes, either.

That’s bad news for a Bruins defense that will be up against the best offense they have faced yet in California. The Golden Bears are putting up 40.2 points and 517.7 yards per game this season. Jared Goff is going to be extremely motivated after giving the game away against Utah with five interceptions. But he is still completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,970 yards, 8.8 per attempt, and a 17-9 TD/INT ratio.

California is vastly improved defensively this season. It is only giving up 24.5 points and 395 yards per game this season, including 27.3 points and 365.7 yards per game in conference play. I actually give the edge on both sides of the ball to the Golden Bears in this game, and throw in the extra rest and there’s no way there’s not value with the 3.5 points here.

The Golden Bears also want to avenge their 34-36 home loss to UCLA last season. They took a 34-33 lead with 6:50 to play, only for UCLA to go down and kick a game-winning field goal with 3:40 left. California is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Golden Bears are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. California is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. The Bruins are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 October games.  Take Cal Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Seahawks/49ers UNDER 42.5
While I was leaning toward taking Seattle when this line opened at -4, now that it has been bet up to -6.5 I don’t see a whole lot of value with the Seahawks any more. Instead, I believe the value is with the total as it has been bet up from 41 to 42 and 42.5 in some places. I would have liked it at 41 anyway, but now that it has gone up there is even more value here with the UNDER.

These are two 2-4 teams in desperate need of a victory. That will lead to all-out defense from both sides, especially for the Seahawks. They have been bashed in the media because they would be 6-0 right now if not for four blown fourth quarter leads. I look for their defense to take it personally and to shut down the 49ers in this matchup.

Without question, Seattle still has one of the best defenses in the NFL. It is giving up 20.8 points and 319.5 yards per game this season, which isn’t as good as in year’s past, but the Seahawks have played a tough schedule. They will now be up against a San Francisco offense that is one of the worst in the NFL in averaging just 16.7 points and 321.2 yards per game.

The 49ers have slipped a bit defensively this season, but it’s easy to see why because of the schedule. In their last five games, they have faced Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Those are five of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today. Russell Wilson is a solid quarterback, but he’s not the passer that those guys are and his biggest weapon is his ability to run the ball.

The 49ers have been battered defensively on the road, but at home it’s been a different story. The 49ers are only giving up 13.3 points per game at home this season. They held Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings to just 3 points, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to a season-low 17, and Joe Flacco and the Ravens to 20. They will be able slow down this mediocre Seahawks offense Thursday night.

This has quickly become one of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams have been battling for supremacy not only in the NFC West in recent years, but also to get to the Super Bowl from the NFC. They are extremely familiar with one another as they play a similar brand of football. They both have limited passers at quarterback and prefer to run the ball. They also both have elite defenses, though the 49ers have tailed off a bit this season, except at home.

In fact, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams. They have combined for 40 or fewer points in seven of those eight meetings, and they have averaged 30.8 points per game in the last five, all of which have gone UNDER the total. They have averaged 31.8 points per game in the last eight meetings combined. In the last three meetings in San Francisco, they have combined for 22, 36 and 19 points, or an average of 25.7 points per game. To say this has been a low-scoring series would be a massive understatement. I look for it to continue Thursday night.
San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER versus good rushing teams that average 130 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  It is combining with these teams for an average of 34.3 points per game.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Seahawks last 12 vs. NFC West opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in 49ers last five vs. NFC West foes.  The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight Thursday games.
I believe a big reason this total is set to high is because the Seahawks and 49ers are both 2-0 to the OVER in their last two games coming in.  That has also helped create some nice line value on the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* UL-Lafayette/Arkansas State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arkansas State -7

I was on the Red Wolves last week in their 49-31 win at South Alabama. I’ll hop back on board this week as well as the Red Wolves are neck-and-neck with Appalachian State and Georgia Southern as the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference this season. The Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year, which was their most since 2003. They have a veteran quarterback and the best set of receivers in the conference.

Arkansas State’s three losses this season have come against three teams who were ranked inside the Top 25 at one point. They were road losses to USC and Toledo, and a home loss to Missouri. They played Missouri right down to the wire, losing 20-27 as 9.5-point underdogs. Quarterback Freddi Knighten was injured late in that game, and he had to miss the next three games because of a groin injury.

But Knighten returned against South Alabama last week to lead the Red Wolves to an 18-point victory. He threw two touchdown passes while also rushing for 40 yards. But it was the defense that deserves most the credit. The Red Wolves held South Alabama to just 302 total yards while forcing five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.

The Red Wolves’ stop unit is vastly improved this season. They held the Jaguars to just 29 rushing yards on 32 carries, or an average of 0.9 yards per carry. They haven't allowed 200 rushing yards to any team this year.  That’s going to be key in this game because Louisiana-Lafayette relies heavily on the run. The Rajin’ Cajuns average 231 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry. But the Red Wolves have one of the best defensive lines in the Sun Belt, and they are only giving up 146 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this season.

Arkansas State comes into this game extra motivated after losing the last two meetings with Louisiana-Lafayette. They lost 40-55 on the road last year despite outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns 595-521 for the game. They allowed Elijah McGuire to go off for career highs of 265 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The defense will take this rematch personally.

But the Red Wolves should find plenty of success on offense, just as they did last year. Knighten threw for 344 yards and accounted for four touchdowns, Michael Gordon ran for 134 yards on 15 carries, Dijon Pacshal caught 8 balls for 141 yards and two touchdowns, and J.D. McKissic had 7 grabs for 99 yards. All four of those studs are back this season for the Red Wolves.

I just cannot take Louisiana-Lafayette seriously when its only wins have come at home against awful teams in Northwestern State and Texas State. The Rajin’ Cajuns lost 14-35 at home to Akron despite being 7.5-point favorites and were outgained by 173 yards by the Zips, who have been pretty bad this season themselves. They also lost 14-43 at Louisiana Tech as 14-point underdogs. Those two performances show me that the Rajin’ Cajuns have clearly taken a big step back this season.

Turnovers are going to be key in this game, and I look for Arkansas State to win the turnover battle. This is an opportunistic defense that has forced three or more turnovers in four of its six games this season with 15 takeaways overall. Louisiana-Lafayette has committed at least three turnovers in three of its five games this season and 11 overall. The advantage at the QB position clearly goes to Knigten and the Red Wolves over first-year starter Jalen Nixon of the Rajin’ Cajuns, who played terribly up until the Texas State game last week.

Arkansas State is 2-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 23.3 pints per game. Its only home loss came to Missouri by a touchdown as mentioned before. Lafayette is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 18.0 points per game. The Red Wolves are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 conference games. Arkansas State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Take Arkansas State Tuesday.

15* Giants/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -4

Despite their 2-3 record, I still believe the Eagles are the better team in this one. They are undervalued right now because of their slow start to the season that saw them open 1-3. But two of their losses came by a combined five points on the road to the Falcons and Redskins, who are two of the most improved teams in the league.

Philadelphia finally played up to its potential last week in a dominant 39-17 home win over New Orleans. The Eagles outgained the Saints by 131 total yards. Their offense had their best game of the season with 519 total yards. The ground game produced 186 yards, which will be a sign of things to come for this team. Sam Bradford also played a solid game, completing 32 of 45 passes for 333 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Giants come in overvalued due to having won three straight. They needed a last-second touchdown to beat the 49ers at home last week, who have been punching bags to everyone but the Giants over the previous four weeks. The Giants have actually been outgained in four of their five games this season, which isn’t the sign of a team that should be 3-2.

New York still has issues defensively that will be exploited by this Eagles offense. The Giants are giving up 384.8 yards per game and 5.8 per play against opposing offenses that average 350 yards per game and 5.6 per play. They have been awful against the pass, allowing 304 yards per game and 67.7% completions to rank last in the NFL in pass defense. Even Colin Kaepernick looked like Joe Montana against this Giants’ pass defense last week.

Philadelphia has had New York’s number in going 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Eagles swept the season series last year, which included a 27-0 home win that saw them outgain the Giants 448-254. The Eagles averaged 30.5 points and 437 total yards per game against the Giants last season. It doesn’t appear like this Giants defense is improved at all this season, so the big offensive numbers should continue for the Eagles in this one.

The Giants also have their top three receivers hurting right now.  Odell Beckham Jr. is questionable, Rueben Randle is questionable, and Victor Cruz still hasn’t resumed practice.  Their top cornerback in Prince Amukamara is out as well. which is a huge blow to their pass defense.  Middle linebacker Jon Beason suffered a concussion last week and is questionable to return.

Plays on favorites (PHILADELPHIA) – after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983. Trailing the Giants in the division, I look for the Eagles to come out the more motivated team and to build off of their best performance of the season last week.  Take the Eagles Monday.

15* Patriots/Colts NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England -7.5

The Patriots are on a mission this season and are taking no prisoners with them. They have been inspired behind all of the offseason media attention surrounding ‘Deflategate’, and they’re out to prove to the rest of the NFL that they are the best team without cheating. It was the Colts who started this whole ‘Deflategate’ scandal in the AFC Championship Game last year, and you can bet that the Patriots have had this game circled all offseason.

Andrew Luck is expected to return for this game, but it’s not going to matter. The Colts will struggle to find points against a New England defense that is only giving up 19.0 points and 342.5 yards per game. A lot of those points have been scored in garbage time, too, with games already decided. New England allowed a last-second touchdown to Pittsburgh to win 28-21. It allowed 19 points in the 4th quarter at Buffalo to ‘only’ win 40-32. And it allowed 14 points after intermission to beat Jacksonville 51-17.

But the real key here is that Indianapolis is not going to be able to stop New England. The Colts are giving up 398.8 yards per game to rank 28th in the NFL in total defense. That’s really bad when you consider the five offenses they have played have been the Bills, Jets, Titans, Jaguars and Texans. Those are five of the worst offenses in the NFL.

New England ranks 1st in the NFL in total offense, scoring 37.2 points per game to go along with 423.7 yards per game. The Patriots are also 1st in the league in passing offense at 331 yards per game and 8.3 per attempt while completing 72.5 percent of their passes. The Colts rank 28th against the pass as well, giving up 286.8 yards per game, 7.8 per attempt and 64.9 percent completions.

The Patriots are 6-0 in their last six meetings with the Colts. The last four haven’t even been close as the Patriots have won all four by 21 or more points and by an average of 29.0 points per game. I see no reason this trend will end this week as the Patriots come in motivated to do it again and put the Colts in their place. It also helps that this is a big stage on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. Look for Tom Brady to keep the foot on the gas for four quarters and to show no sympathy for the Colts in this one.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Chargers +11

The Green Bay Packers could not be more overvalued than they are right now. They are already one of the public’s favorite teams to bet, and they are delivering in a big way by going 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to set their spreads high enough, getting killed on the Packers every week. It looks to me as though they have finally said enough is enough and are giving the Chargers way too many points here. It’s time to sell high on the Packers.

It’s the perfect storm as the Chargers are 2-3 straight up and 1-4 against the spread this season. The public was killed on the Chargers on Monday Night Football in a 20-24 home loss to the Steelers. The public drove the line in that game up from -3 to -4, which is a huge move in the NFL. The public was a big loser in that game, and now they are gun shy about backing the Chargers this week.

I’ve seen enough from San Diego to know that it can hang with Green Bay. In fact, the numbers show that the Chargers are still one of the better teams in the NFL despite their 2-3 record. They have actually outgained four of their five opponents this season, and they are outgaining them by an average of 58.8 yards per game. That’s the 5th-best mark in the entire NFL as they are in the company of teams like the Patriots and Cardinals.  To compare, Green Bay is 9th in yardage differential (+46.4/game).

San Diego ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 410.0 yards per game. Philip Rivers has been brilliant, but he also just got Antonio Gates back from a 4-game suspension last week. Rivers threw for 354 yards in the loss to the Steelers, including two touchdown passes to Gates. San Diego really did outplay Pittsburgh, but an interception return for a touchdown kept the Steelers in it. This San Diego defense has held its own in giving up 351.2 yards per game this year.

Green Bay’s defense is getting a ton of accolades right now, but it has faced a very easy schedule in terms of opposing offenses. The five opposing offenses it has faced average 18.9 points and 324 yards per game on the season. None of the five rank better than 15th in total offense. The Packers have faced St. Louis (32nd), San Francisco (29th), Chicago (27th), Kansas City (18th) and Seattle (15th). Their mediocre defense will finally get exposed against San Diego’s third-ranked offense.

San Diego has played in a ton of close games this season. Indeed, four of its five games have been decided by 5 points or less. I look for this game to go right down to the wire as well. Green Bay is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play. The Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in two straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  Rivers will keep the Chargers in the game for four quarters and will have a chance to upset the Packers in the end.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7

It’s not usually a wise move to go against teams coming off their bye week, but I believe that is factored into this line. The Seahawks should be double-digit favorites, and instead they are laying less than a touchdown to the Panthers. In their showdown in the playoffs last year, the Seahawks were 13.5-point favorites, so this is an adjustment of nearly 7 points from that game. I think there is clearly value with the Seahawks because of it.

Despite their 2-3 start, I still believe the Seahawks are one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL. Despite their 4-0 start, I still believe the Panthers are no better than a middle-of-the-pack team. The difference in these two starts has been scheduling. The Seahawks have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, while the Panthers have benefited from a cake schedule to this point.

Indeed, Seattle has had to go on the road to face Green Bay, Cincinnati and St. Louis, who are a combined 12-3 this season. Carolina has faced Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay, who are a combined 5-15. You’ll find out this week that the Panthers are nowhere near as good as their 4-0 record.

Despite facing such an easy schedule, Carolina has actually been outgained by 19.0 yards per game on the season. It has one of the worst offenses in the NFL, a unit that ranks 25th in total offense (322.0 yards/game) and 28th in yards per play (5.0) against opposing defenses that give up 359 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Its defense is solid but not great, giving up 339.0 yards per game this season. Again, you have to factor in the ease of the schedule in which they played.

I also still believe the Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL. They are giving up just 306.8 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opposing offenses that average 344 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Those numbers would be better, but in their first two games they played without Kam Chancellor. Since he returned three weeks ago, this defense has played a lot better.  The Seahawks rank 5th in the NFL in total defense.

Seattle is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Carolina. The three road wins for the Seahawks during this stretch have been close, but the two home wins have not. Seattle won 31-17 at home in the playoffs last year and 31-14 in its previous home meeting with Carolina. All the Seahawks have to do to cover this spread is win by more than a touchdown, and I see no way that won’t be the case.

Normally this would be a revenge spot for the Panthers, and while it still is, that should be a non-factor. Seattle needs this win more after a 2-3 start, while Carolina can afford a loss after its 4-0 start. I actually look for the Seahawks to be the more motivated team as a result.  And I like their chances to get a win considering they are 28-2 in all home games over the past four seasons.

The Seahawks are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 home games. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) – off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* SDSU/SJSU Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State -3

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They went just 3-9 last year and had all kinds of bad fortune in close games and the turnover department.  But they returned 16 starters this year and were determined to turn it around.  After a slow start, this team is now playing up to its potential, but it's still being undervalued week after week.

They beat Fresno State 49-23 and outgained the Bulldogs by 296 total yards.  Then they went to Auburn the next week and only lost 21-35 and actually outgained the Tigers by 64 yards in a game they had every chance to win.  Playing a tough SEC team like Auburn on the road like that down to the wire really shows that this team is capable of.  Then the Spartans won 33-27 (OT) at UNLV last week while outgaining the Rebels by 41 yards.  They blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead, but showed a lot of grit down the stretch when they could have folded.  Now they have a ton of confidence heading into this week.

San Diego State has not impressed me at all this year.  It is 3-3 on the season, which is identical to San Jose State, but its three wins have come against Hawaii, Fresno State and South Dakota.  Those are three of the worst teams in the country.  Plus, they only beat Fresno State 21-7 at home, while San Jose State beat Fresno State 49-23 at home, giving them a common opponent to gauge off of.

The Aztecs have one of the worst offenses in the country.  They are only putting up 23.5 points, 331 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing defenses that give up 31.1 points, 375 yards per game and 5.4 per play.  So it's not like they've faced a gauntlet of defenses.  They get awful quarterback play week in and week out, averaging just 46.4 percent completions and 151 passing yards per game.

San Jose State has a much better offense as it is putting up 30.5 points and 440.5 yards per game.  Its defense has been respectable, too, giving up 344.7 yards per game this season.  So it is outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.  San Diego State is only outgaining foes by 10 yards per game.  Plus, San Jose State has played the slightly tougher schedule with four road games already, including trips to Air Force, Oregon State and Auburn.

San Diego State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off a road win over a conference opponent.  The Aztecs are 14-32 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS since since 1992.  San Jose State is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 games as a favorite.  Bet San Jose State Saturday night.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State +6

The Arizona State Sun Devils have really played up to their potential the last two weeks following their ugly 14-42 loss to USC.  But they committed four turnovers against the Trojans in that game and were only outgained by one yard, so it was much closer than the final score would indicate.

Arizona State went on the road and beat UCLA 38-23 as 13-point underdogs the next week, outgaining the Bruins by 123 yards in the process.  They followed that up with a 48-23 home win over Colorado last week.  The offense is now hitting on all cylinders, and the defense has taken some great strides since that USC loss.

The Sun Devils will be the more motivated team in this one as they feel like they are still very much alive in the Pac-12 Title race.  To win the South, they are going to probably need to beat Utah this week.  Utah is coming off a huge win 30-24 win over California last week to improve to 5-0.  ESPN's College Gameday was at that game, and there's no way the atmosphere is going to be as good a week later without it.  This is actually a letdown spot for the Utes following such a big win.

Utah may be the most overrated team in the country.  Despite being 5-0, it is only outgaining teams by an average of 9.8 yards per game this season, which is the sign of a .500 team.  Utah was outgained by 18 yards at home in a win over Michigan, by 46 yards at home in a win over Utah State, and by 32 yards at home in the win over California.  The Bears had six turnovers in that game, yet the Utes could only manage a 30-24 win.  They only outgained an awful Fresno State team by 15 yards in a road win as well.

The key to this game for me is Arizona State's ability to stop the run against a power running team in Utah.  Arizona State has been excellent against the run, giving up just 139 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry against opposing offenses that average 219 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  So, the Sun Devils are limiting opposing offenses to 80 rushing yards per game and 1.5 per carry less than their season averages.  Utah averages 217 rushing yards per game and just 185 passing, so it clearly depends almost exclusively on the run to move the football.

Arizona State has had Utah's number to say the least.  The Sun Devils are 11-0 in their last 11 meetings with the Utes with their last loss coming all the way back in 1976.  They have won four straight trips to Salt Lake City by an average of 17 points per game.  Kyle Whittingham is 7-24 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  This team is much better in the role of spoiler as an underdog, but that's not the case now as the Utes are way overvalued due to their No. 4 national ranking.  Roll with Arizona State Saturday.

15* USC/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +5

The betting public is all over Notre Dame in the wake of the Steve Sarkisian firing, driving this line up from -2 to -7 and back down to -5. I believe the firing is actually going to work in favor of the Trojans, who simply needed a change. Look back to two years ago when Ed Orgeron took over for a fired Lane Kiffin. The Trojans went 7-2 over their final nine games that year when they were left for dead.

Orgeron found out that he would not be retained as the head coach the next year, so he quit at the end of the regular season. That left offensive coordinator Clay Helton to coach the bowl game, and the players responded well. They crushed Fresno State 45-20 as 6-point favorites under the guidance of Helton. That’s important because Helton has been named the interim head coach now, and several of these players were with him in 2013. I expect them to respond well again.

I would still argue that USC is one of the most talented teams in the country despite some poor results in home losses to Stanford and Washington. But you don’t have to look too deep to find the potential of this team. They opened the season with blowout home wins over Arkansas State (55-6) and Idaho (59-9), and they went on the road and crushed a very good Arizona State team 42-14. That’s the same Sun Devils squad that won 38-23 at UCLA.

The numbers also show that the Trojans are an elite team still. They are putting up 39.8 points and 494.8 yards per game on offense, and their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up just 17.4 points and 387.5 yards per game. They have the luxury of having arguably the best quarterback in the country on their side in senior Cody Kessler. He has completed 69.5 percent of his passes for 1,453 yards with 15 touchdowns against three interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

Kessler had a monster game against this Notre Dame team last year. He completed 32 of 40 passes for 372 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions to lead the Trojans to a 49-14 victory. While that game was at home, the Trojans have had no trouble winning in South Bend, either. They have actually won five of their last six visits to Notre Dame with their only loss coming by a final of 10-14 in 2013.

Notre Dame comes in overvalued due to going 5-1 against the spread in all games this season.  This is a public team as it is, and the public isn't going to stop backing the Fighting Irish after the start they have gotten off to.  But they have played a very easy schedule to this point with Texas, Virginia, Georgia Tech, UMass and Navy resulting in their five wins, and their lone loss coming at Clemson in their toughest game of the season.  USC will be the best team that they have faced yet.

USC is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 10 points or more. It is coming back to win by an average of 16.7 points per game in this spot. The Trojans are also 7-0 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last three years. They are coming back to win by 21.7 points per game in this spot. And to cap it off, USC is 9-0 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, coming back to win by 21.6 points per game.  These three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Trojans.  Also, the Trojans will have had extra time to rest and prepare after playing last Thursday.  Take USC Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on TCU -20.5

The TCU Horned Frogs will make easy work of the Iowa State Cyclones this week.  Many are calling this a letdown spot for the Horned Frogs off their comeback 52-45 victory over Kansas State last week, but I'm not buying it.  TCU is on a mission to win the Big 12 this season and will not take Iowa State lightly.

We saw what happened in what was a letdown spot following a 55-52 win at Texas Tech three weeks ago.  TCU came back the next week and crushed Texas 50-7 at home in a lopsided affair.  I look for a similar result this week after that Kansas State win, which should have been a bigger blowout because the Horned Frogs outgained the Wildcats by 158 yards.

In fact, the Horned Frogs have outgained all six of their opponents by at least 108 yards during their 6-0 start.  They outgained Texas by 291, Texas Tech by 143, SMU by 212 and Stephen F. Austin by 460.  The Horned Frogs are outgaining the opposition by an average of 228.7 yards per game this season.  That's the sign of an elite team and one that's a national title contender.

TCU is even better on offense this season than it was last year, if that's even possible.  it is putting up 51.0 points and 615.5 yards per game behind the play of Heisman trophy candidate Trevone Boykin.  The defense hasn't been as bad as most think as the Horned Frogs are only giving up 5.1 yards per play against opponents who average 5.5 per play.

Iowa State's defense has no shot at stopping TCU, and thus no chance of covering.  The Cyclones played the best team that they have faced this season last week in Texas Tech, and they were annihilated.  They gave up a ridiculous 776 total yards in a 66-31 road loss to the Red Raiders.  TCU is a similar team to Texas Tech, but better.

Last year, TCU embarrassed Iowa State 55-3.  This game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Horned Frogs outgained the Cyclones 722-236, or by 484 total yards.  It's not going to take another 52-point blowout to cover this spread as the Horned Frogs only need to win by 21.  That shouldn't be a problem because their offense is going to score at will.

Iowa State is 0-7 ATS after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game over the past three seasons. It is coming back to lose by an average of 28.8 points per game in this spot.  The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 32.9 points per game in this spot.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -4

The Oklahoma Sooners are still very much alive for the Big 12 title after their slip-up last week against the Texas Longhorns.  I believe that loss will have them re-focused this week and ready to get back on track against a Kansas State team that is reeling after blowing a late lead to TCU last week.

Indeed, I think Kansas State is in the much worst spot mentally in this one.  They have opened 0-2 in Big 12 play with a 2-point loss to Oklahoma State and a 7-point loss to TCU.  But both of those games were bigger blowouts than the final scores showed.  Kansas State was outgained by 139 yards by Oklahoma State and by 158 yards against TCU.

In a 39-33 overtime win against Louisiana Tech at home, the Wildcats were also outgained by 96 yards.  The Wildcats are now actually getting outgained by an average of 27.6 yards per game on the season.  They aren't as good as they have been in year's past, and this Oklahoma team is the best that Bob Stoops has had in a few years.  I look for that to play out in this game Saturday with the Sooners easily able to cover as small favorites.

There's no question that this is the best offense Stoops has had in a while.  Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield has made a huge different.  He is leading the Sooners to an average of 37.0 points, 473.0 yards per game and 6.4 per play against opposing defenses that allow 27.3 points, 423 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

Oklahoma has also been better defensively this season than it is getting credit for.  The Sooners are holding the opposition to 22.6 points, 364.0 yards per game and 4.6 per play.  That's impressive when you consider that those opponents average 32.1 points, 442 yards per game and 5.7 per play against everyone else.

Oklahoam wants revenge from a 31-30 home loss to Kansas State last year.  The Sooners missed a chip shot field goal at the end of the game that would have won it.  They outgained the Wildcats 533-385 for the game, or by 148 total yards.  The road team has actually gone 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, so home-field advantage has meant nothing.  Oklahoma won 41-31 at Kansas State in 2013 and 58-17 at Kansas State in 2011.

In fact, Oklahoma is 5-0 in its last five trips to Manhattan with all five victories coming by 10 points or more.  The Sooners have won by an average of 18.8 points per game in their last five road meetings with the Wildcats.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Sooners are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games following a S.U. loss.  In fact, the Sooners haven't lost back-to-back regular season games since 1999, a span of 34 straight wins following a loss.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +7

The betting public has steamed Michigan from a 3-point favorite all the way up to an 8.5-point favorite, and it's now back down to 7. They love backing this Michigan team because they have put together three straight shutouts and covers. The public has bet this line up to the point where the only choice is to take the value with the Spartans if you are going to play this game at all.

It’s the perfect storm. Michigan State is 6-0 despite going 0-6 against the spread this season. The betting public has lost a lot of money backing the Spartans, while I have made hay fading them. I went against them with success against Air Force, Central Michigan and Purdue. But I know when to shift gears when the price is right, and there’s no question that the price couldn’t be any better on the Spartans now in the role of underdogs.

The Spartans have actually held double-digit leads in all six of their games this season.  But they have allowed several backdoor covers to their opponents when they were covering late.  But because they have taken their foot off the gas in the second half of games, they have gone 0-6 against the spread this season.  It will be interesting to see what this team can do this week when it goes full-throttle for four quarters.

Michigan State will be out to make a statement in this game as it continues to slide in the rankings. The Spartans were ranked as high as No. 2 after their win over Oregon, but they have slid all the way down to No. 7 now despite continuing to win. They need a high-profile win over a team like the Wolverines to boost their playoff résumé, and this is their chance to get it. I look for them to take full advantage.

To say this has been a one-sided series in recent years would be a massive understatement. Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings with Michigan. The last two haven’t even been close. The Spartans won 29-6 at home as 4-point favorites in 2013 while outgaining the Wolverines 394-168. They won in an even bigger blowout 35-11 at home last year, outgaining the Wolverines 446-186.

While Michigan does have the better defense, its numbers are skewed a bit because it has faced mostly awful offenses. The Wolverines’ opponents only average 26.4 points, 368 yards per game and 5.2 per play this season. That’s a very soft slate. Michigan State’s opponents average 30.7 points, 424 yards per game and 5.9 per play. The Spartans have faced the much more difficult schedule in terms of opposing offenses.

I do give a slight edge to the Michigan defense, though, but there’s no denying that Michigan State has the better offense. The Spartans are putting up 31.3 points per game this season and still haven’t played up to their capability because of injuries along the offensive line, but they are getting healthier by the week and should have almost everyone back. Connor Cook has thrown for 1,334 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, and I trust him a lot more in a big game than Jake Rudock.

Michigan hasn't faced a passing offense nearly as good as the one it will be up against Saturday.  Almost every team Michigan has gone up against has been primarily a running team.  Utah is 97th in passing offense, Oregon State is 116th , UNLV is 107th, BYU is 26th, Maryland is 109th and Northwestern is 115th.  While that 31-0 win over BYU looks nice, the fact of the matter is that Michigan caught the Cougars in a great spot.  They had just lost to UCLA 23-24 the previous week and were out of gas due to a brutal early schedule.

Michigan’s offensive numbers are swayed a bit due to defensive touchdowns. Yet the Wolverines are still only scoring 29.5 points per game this season. I do not trust Rudock in this big game situation. He cost them in their biggest game thus far against Utah with 3 interceptions, and I expect him to cost them in this one too. Rudock has thrown five touchdowns against six interceptions this season and is holding this offense back.

Michigan State has actually played its best football on the road in recent years. The Spartans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall, and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry over the last three seasons. The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in road games off two straight wins over conference opponents over the last three seasons.  With the Spartans being 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings, these three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing them.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10.5

The Ole Miss Rebels should be much heavier favorites Saturday against the Memphis Tigers.  This is essentially like a college team playing a pro team in terms of talent level.  I look for that to be on display Saturday as the Rebels run away with this one.

This is the best team that Ole Miss has had since Hugh Freeze took over.  They are still national title contenders even with their fluky loss at Florida where they committed four turnovers and gave the game away.  They still have their road win at Alabama, and if they win out they will for sure be going to the four-team playoff.  That's why they won't be overlooking Memphis this week.

That's especially the case after they left Memphis hang around for three quarters last year.  They only led 7-3 at the end of three quarters before scoring 17 in the fourth for a 24-3 victory.  But that game was a much bigger blowout.  Ole Miss outgained Memphis 426-104 for the game, or by 322 total yards.  They held stud Memphis QB Paxton Lynch to just 13 of 81 passing for 81 yards with an interception.

Ole Miss once again has one of the best defenses in the country in 2015.  It is giving up 19.7 points, 337.5 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  While Memphis has an offense that is just as good as last year, it is going to find just gaining first downs against this Ole Miss defense difficult.  The Tigers haven't even seen a defense near the caliber of this one this season.

Indeed, Memphis has played one of the softest slates of defenses in the country.  The five opponents they've play have averaged giving up 40.6 points and 473 yards per game to all opponents this season.  They have played Missouri State, Kansas, Bowling Green, Cincinnati and South Florida.  The best defense they have played was South Florida, which held them to just 24 points last time out.  Memphis won't get to 20 against Ole Miss, which is going to make it impossible to stay within this 10.5-point spread.

The Rebels also have the best offense they have had in the Freeze era in 2015.  They are putting up 46.8 points and 527.8 yards per game while averaging 7.4 yards per play behind the talented Chad Kelly at quarterback.  Memphis has an awful defense, giving up 26.8 points and 438.4 yards per game with 5.7 per play.  Kelly and company will have a field day against this Memphis defense.  The sledding was a little tougher for Ole Miss against Memphis' defense last year, but that was a talented stop unit.  The Tigers only have three starters back on defense this year, and it's a glaring weakness.

Ole Miss is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a game where it committed three or more turnovers over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 20.3 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. awful passing defense that allow 275 or more yards per game.  The Rebels are 6-0 in their last six meetings with the Tigers with the last three wins all coming by 17 points or more.  The Rebels are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.  The Tigers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boise State -9.5

The Boise State Broncos are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. Normally I would look to fade these teams because they are usually overvalued, but I just don’t believe that’s the case with the Broncos in this game. They should be more than single-digit favorites over the Utah State Aggies with the way they are playing right now, even though this game is on the road.

Not only are the Broncos winning, they are dominating. They have outscored their last four opponents 202-24 while covering four straight by a combined 108 points. They even beat two solid teams on the road in Colorado State (41-10) and Virginia (56-14) that shows that their game travels well. They also shut out Hawaii (55-0) and Idaho State (52-0) at home during this stretch.

The fortune of the Broncos has turned ever since Brett Rypien, the son of former NFL QB Mark Rypien, was inserted at quarterback. The freshman has been lighting it up, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,057 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. I was worried about this team early because of their problems at QB, but that’s no longer an issue with Rypien under center.

Boise State now has an explosive offense to go with a defense that is just dominating. The Broncos returned eight starters on defense this season and were going to be good, but they have been even better than expected. They are only allowing 12.0 points and 259.5 yards per game this season. They are also allowing just 3.8 yards per play. They faced a good Colorado State offense last week, and held the Rams to just 256 yards while forcing three turnovers.

Utah State is overvalued after two straight wins and covers in my book. It won 33-18 at home against Colorado State as 5.5-point favorites, which gives these teams a common opponent. Again, Boise State beat Colorado State 41-10 on the road and outgained the Rams by 341 yards. Utah State only outgained the Rams by 74 yards at home. The Aggies beat an awful Fresno State team 56-14 last week, which is keeping this spread smaller than it should be.

Boise State is 12-0 in its last 12 meetings with Utah State with the last 10 wins coming by an average of 31 points per game. Each of the last 10 wins have come by 11 points or more as well, giving us a perfect 10-0 system since 2000 backing Boise State. The Broncos beat the Aggies 50-19 as only 10-point home favorites last year. They outgained Utah State 498-268, or by 230 total yards. A similar beat down can be expected in the rematch this year.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) – off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 42-11 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 10-1-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings at Utah State.  Bet Boise State Friday.

20* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta -3

The hamstring injury to Julio Jones is concerning, but he was able to play through it last week against Washington and get a key touchdown late in that game. While Jones didn’t practice on Tuesday, head coach Dan Quinn said he expects him to play even though he’s listed as questionable. Even if for whatever reason he doesn’t go, I still believe the Falcons have enough left to put away one of the worst teams in the NFL in the New Orleans Saints.

Even with a hobbled Jones, the Falcons really outplayed a good Washington team last week and shouldn’t have needed overtime to beat the Redskins. They outgained them 418-270 for the game, or by 148 total yards. The problem was that the Falcons had to settle for too many field goals, and the usually reliable Matt Bryant missed two of them. Matt Ryan also uncharacteristically threw two interceptions, but the Falcons still found a way to win in overtime.

Atlanta is the real deal this season. A lot of people are going to point to them erasing four fourth quarter deficits to win in four of their five games, but that is just business as usual for Matt Ryan. He leads all quarterbacks in game-winning drives since he came into the league in 2008. He has the best offensive coordinator he has ever had in Atlanta in Kyle Shanahan, and these two are on fire right now.

The Falcons are putting up 32.4 points and 406.2 yards per game this season to rank 4th in the league in total offense. While Ryan is on fire, it's the new-found running game that has made this offense so tough to tame.  The Falcons are averaging 126 rushing yards per game against opponents that only allow 97 yards per game on the ground.

Devonte Freeman has scored seven touchdowns in the last three games as the Falcons have rushed for an average of 156.3 yards per game during this stretch.  Their defense played its best game of the season against the Redskins, limiting them to just 270 total yards. This defense is only going to get better as the season goes on under the guidance of Quinn.

The Saints are a mess and I question their motivation the rest of the way after a 1-4 start. Drew Brees clearly isn’t his old self as he continues to play through injury. He was a big part of the four turnovers the Saints committed in their ugly 17-39 road loss to Philadelphia last week. He constantly has to try and bring his team back from deficits because the Saints have an awful defense, and he’s been unable to do it.

Ryan and company should have their way with a New Orleans defense that is giving up 28.6 points and 409.0 yards per game to rank last in the NFL in total defense. Ryan certainly played well against this defense last season in leading the Falcons to a 2-0 season sweep of the Saints. The Falcons racked up 568 yards in a 37-34 home win, and 403 yards in a 30-14 road win.

These teams have a couple common opponents to gauge off of. Atlanta beat Philadelphia 26-24 at home and Dallas 39-28 on the road. New Orleans lost to Philadelphia 17-39 on the road and needed overtime to beat Dallas 26-20 at home.  Brandon Weeden was the starting quarterback for Dallas in both of those games.

The Saints simply do not have the same kind of home-field advantage they used to. They are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Ryan loves the Thursday night stage as the Falcons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five. The Saints are 27-50 ATS in their last 77 home games vs. division opponents.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

15* Auburn/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -2

The Auburn Tigers were a popular preseason pick to win the SEC West. I wasn’t one of them on that bandwagon as I believed Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M were the four best teams in the division. So far, I’ve been proven right. But at the same time, I realize when it’s time to jump on a team once the value is right.

Auburn would probably win the SEC East if it was in that division even with its struggles thus far in 2015. That’s because the East is so weak, and Kentucky isn’t even a top three team in the division. I believe Tennessee, Georgia and Florida are all much better than the Wildcats, and I believe Auburn would beat all three of those teams. So, yes, I believe that Auburn will win this game over Kentucky as well.

Auburn has played the much more difficult schedule this season, already having to face the likes of Louisville, LSU and Mississippi State. Kentucky is overvalued due to its 4-1 record against an extremely easy schedule. The Wildcats have beaten the likes of Missouri, South Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette. They lost to the best team they’ve played in Florida.

Kentucky has been extremely fortunate in close games this year as all five of its games have been decided by 7 points or less. That means the Wildcats could easily be 1-4 instead of 4-1. But the most concerning thing about the Wildcats is that they have played awful against two non-conference opponents that they were expected to roll.

Indeed, they needed overtime to beat Eastern Kentucky 34-27 last time out as 27.5-point favorites. They only outgained Eastern Kentucky by 21 yards in that game. They also only beat Louisiana-Lafayette 40-33 at home as 17-point favorites in the opener. They were actually outgained by 44 yards by the Rajin’ Cajuns. The Wildcats are getting outgained 365.6 to 368.4 on the season, which isn’t the sign of a 4-1 team.

Auburn has simply owned Kentucky through the years. It is 8-0 in its last eight visits to Lexington with its last loss there coming all the way back in 1966. The Wildcats are 1-10 against SEC West opponents since 2010.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) – off a home win, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Auburn Thursday.

20* Ark State/South Alabama Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas State -4.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are arguably the best team in the Sun Belt Conference this year. But because they have opened just 2-3, they are flying a little under the radar right now. When you look at the losses, it’s easy to see why this team has already suffered three defeats.

The three losses have come at USC, vs Missouri, and at Toledo. These are three teams who have been ranked in the Top 25 at various points in the season. The Red Wolves nearly upset Missouri in a 20-27 home loss in Week 2. Star QB Fredi Knighten suffered a groin injury in that game, and he has missed each of the team’s three games since. But Knighten is expected to start against South Alabama on Tuesday as he is finally recovered from that injury.

Arkansas State had little trouble with Idaho last week even in the absence of Knighten. It led the Vandals 49-21 early in the 4th quarter before allowing a couple of garbage touchdowns late to make the final score 49-35. I believe that final being closer than the game really was also has the Red Wolves undervalued here.

Without Knighten, the Red Wolves have really gotten their ground game going. They rushed for 344 yards in a 70-7 win over Missouri State, and 333 yards in that win over Idaho last week. This ground attack is going to find plenty of holes against a South Alabama defense that is giving up 205 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry against teams that average 174 yards per game and 4.1 per carry. This is one of the worst rush defenses in the country.

South Alabama is overvalued due to its 3-2 start to the season. Remember, this is a team that returned the fewest starters (5) in the conference, and it will be up against an Arkansas State team that returned 15 starters from last year. The Jaguars did have a good win at San Diego State (34-27) in Week 3, but their other two wins have come against lowly Gardner Webb and Troy teams.

More telling was their blowout losses to the two best teams they have played this year. They lost to Nebraska 9-48 on the road and were outgained by 229 yards. Nebraska is 2-4 this season. They also lost to NC State 13-63 at home and were outgained by 328 yards. NC State has opened 0-2 in ACC play with losses to Louisville and Virginia Tech.

Arkansas State is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against South Alabama over the last three years. The Red Wolves dominated the Jaguars 45-10 at home last year as 11-point favorites, outgaining them 400-201 for the game. Knighten threw for 186 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 80 yards and a score to lead the way. Again, he’s expected to be healthy and ready to play in this game, and I expect the Red Wolves to improve to 4-0 against the Jaguars.

The Red Wolves are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas State is 26-10-1 ATS in its last 37 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game. South Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. South Alabama is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.

20* Steelers/Chargers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +4

The betting public is backing the Chargers pretty hard in this Monday Night Football game, driving the line up from -3 to -3.5 and -4 in some places.  That's a pretty big move in the NFL for the books to come off the key number of 3, and I believe there is plenty of value in backing the Steelers now.

The public doesn't trust Michael Vick, which is the biggest reason for this move, but I do now.  Vick was thrust into the starting role on a short week against Baltimore last week since it was a Thursday game.  The Steelers were still in control for most of the game until getting too conservative late and letting it slip away in a 20-23 loss.

But now Vick will have had extra time to prepare for the Chargers having played last Thursday.  The playbook will expand exponentially, and I look for offensive coordinator Todd Haley to open it up a lot more this week.  Plus, Vick can rely on the 2-headed monster at RB, along with plenty of talent on the outside led by Antonio Brown.

The Steelers will be up against a soft San Diego defense that has allowed at least 24 points in all four games this season.  The Chargers are giving up 27.5 points per game on the year and nearly lost to the Browns last week, needing a last-second FG to win 30-27 at home.  They allowed 432 total yards to Cleveland.

San Diego is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons.  Pittsburgh is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Steelers are certainly improved defensively in giving up just 18.7 PPG this year.  Pittsburgh is 12-3 straight up in its last 15 meetings with San Diego.  The Chargers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC foes.  Bet the Steelers Monday.