15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +28.5

The TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. That could not be more evident than the fact that they have gone 8-1 against the spread in their nine games. They are finally getting the respect they deserve not only from the playoff committee with their No. 4 ranking, but also the oddsmakers. They are now overvalued this week laying four touchdowns to the Jayhawks on the road.

TCU has only played three true road games all season. One was a 56-0 win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. Another resulted in a loss to Baylor (58-61) as they allowed 782 total yards to the Bears, and the other was a one-point win at West Virginia (31-30) in a game they probably should have lost, but the Mountaineers committed five turnovers to gift-wrap the win for them.

Kansas has actually played pretty well at home this year. It is 3-2 at home with all three of its victories coming in Lawrence. That includes a 24-10 win over a solid Central Michigan team from the MAC, and a 34-14 win against Iowa State last week. The Jayhawks have only lost one Big 12 game by more than 23 points this season, and that was a 60-14 loss at Baylor, which just beats down everyone at home. They also played Oklahoma State tough in a 20-27 home loss as an 18-point dog.

That game against the Cyclones last week was awfully impressive. The Jayhawks dominated from start to finish, and the 20-point result was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cyclones 514-373 for the game, or by 141 total yards. Michael Cummings threw for 278 yards and a touchdown, while Corey Avery and Troy Pierson each rushed for over 100 yards in the win.

Interim head coach Clint Bowen has really lifted the spirits of these players since the firing of Charlie Weis.  All of their hard work finally payed off last week in that 34-14 win over the Cyclones, and now they will have supreme confidence in what Bowen is doing.  This team really feels like they can compete with TCU, and I look for them to show it on the field Saturday.

The Horned Frogs are in a massive letdown spot here off their big win over Kansas State last week. They are also feeling pretty good about themselves after moving up to No. 4 in the playoff rankings. They could also start to feel the pressure from that ranking and not play their best because of it. Either way, this is a tough spot for them, especially asking them to win by more than four touchdowns on the road when they haven’t played that well away from home.

Plays against road favorites (TCU) – excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Jayhawks only lost by 10 at TCU as a 24-point dog last year and by 14 at home as an 18.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs in 2012. I anticipate this game will be closer than most think as well, and for the Jayhawks to stay within the inflated number for a third straight season.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -2.5

The Clemson Tigers (7-2) have done a remarkable job of moving forward in the right direction with six straight wins despite only having star quarterback DeShaun Watson for two of those games. Those were the first two of the streak, and the Tigers put up a combined 91 points against UNC and NC State with Watson at the helm. Well, he is expected to return as the starter this week, giving the offense a huge boost.

Clemson was held to an average of 22.5 points per game over its last four with Cole Stoudt as the quarterback in wins over Louisville, Boston College, Syracuse and Wake Forest. Normally that wouldn’t be enough to win all four games, but it was because the defense held all four of those opponents to 20 or fewer points and an average of 14.0 points per game.

For the season, this Clemson defense is only allowing 18.4 points and 252.3 yards per game to rank second in the country in total defense. In fact, it has allowed 273 yards or fewer in five consecutive games coming in. That includes 119 yards to Wake Forest, 170 yards to Syracuse, and 156 yards to NC State.

Georgia Tech has won three in a row in blowout fashion, and I believe it is overvalued as a result. The Yellow Jackets have essentially been gift-wrapped all three of those wins as their opponents have committed a combined 11 turnovers during this stretch. They are not going to continue to be so fortunate in the turnover department.

The Tigers last played on Thursday, November 6th. While normally two extra days of rest wouldn’t be a big deal, it is in this situation. Any time you get some extra preparation before facing Georgia Tech it’s a big deal because the triple-option is one of the toughest schemes to prepare for.

The Yellow Jackets obviously rely heavily on the run as they average 55 attempts for 336 yards per game compared to 15 pass attempts for 146 yards per game. Perhaps no team in the country is more prepared to stop the triple-option than Clemson. It is allowing just 91 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry this season.

The Tigers have won their last two meetings with the Yellow Jackets in blowout fashion. They won 55-31 at home last year and 47-31 at home in 2012. The Tigers should put up another big number on this Georgia Tech defense, which is yielding 408.7 yards per game. Watson has been brilliant when he’s been healthy, completing 67.0 percent of his passes for 1,176 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 147 yards and three scores.

Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven visits to Georgia Tech. Clemson is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after playing its last game on the road.  Take Clemson Saturday.

20* Tulsa/UCF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -19

The UCF Knights are going to be highly motivated for a win Friday when they host the Golden Hurricane. They are coming off a 29-37 loss at UConn last time out in a game they never should have lost. They actually outgained the Huskies by 102 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, which cost them the win.  They are still 3-1 within the AAC and right in the hunt for the conference title just a half-game back.

They have had two weeks off since that loss, while Tulsa played SMU on Saturday and will be working on a short week. That extra rest will certainly come in handy here, and it will give the Knights a chance to correct their mistakes. They have actually won three of their last four games despite committing a combined 14 turnovers during this stretch. If they just take care of the football, they will have no problem winning this game by 20-plus points, which I fully expect them to do.

The Knights won their last home game by 20 points over Temple (34-14) in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. They outgained the Owls 466-182 for the game and forced four turnovers. That is a very good Owls team that has a win over East Carolina this year. If they can dominate Temple at home like that, they can certainly do the same against Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane really do not have much to play for the rest of the way. They are 2-7 this year and are coming off an unconvincing 38-28 home win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. They had lost seven straight prior to that win, including road losses to Memphis (20-40), Colorado State (17-42) and Florida Atlantic (21-50). UCF is every bit as good as those three teams, if not better.

Tulsa is 0-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.2 points per game.  UCF Is 4-0 in home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Home-field advantage is obviously going to be huge in this one for the Knights against a Tulsa team that has been atrocious on the road.

The Knights have really played well offensively of late, averaging 31.5 points and 447.5 yards per game in their last two contests. They should have no problem moving the football and scoring points against this pathetic Tulsa defense. The Golden Hurricane are allowing 39.2 points, 484 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play against opponents that are only averaging 26.4 points, 381 yards, and 5.5 per play on offense. This is easily one of the worst defenses in the entire country.

Plays against a road team (TULSA) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1992. The Knights are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss.

Tulsa is 1-11 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 0-7 ATS after having lost two out of its last three games over the last two years. UCF is 8-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the past two seasons. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Friday.

20* Bills/Dolphins AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo +5

Favorites in primetime games this year have made the betting public a ton of money. I believe that’s a contributing factor as to why the Dolphins are 5-point home favorites over the Bills in this one as the books don’t want to get burnt again. That’s a big reason why the Bills are showing value this week as 5-point dogs when they should only be 3-point dogs at the most when you factor in home-field advantage as I believe these are pretty equal teams.

Buffalo is gone 3-2 since Kyle Orton became the starting quarterback. Its only losses have come to New England and Kansas City, which are two of the best teams in the AFC. It also went on the road and beat Detroit 17-14 in his first start, which is in my opinion the best team in the NFC. Orton has thrown for over 250 yards in four of his five starts this year to really pick up the offense.

That game against the Chiefs last week should have gone the Bills’ way, but they let a 13-3 lead slip away from them due to committing three turnovers and losing by a final of 13-17. They outplayed the Chiefs, outgaining them 364-278 for the game, or by 86 total yards. I believe that loss is also a contributing factor as to why this spread is at 5 instead of 3.

While Buffalo should have won last week, Miami should never have had a chance to beat Detroit. It was dominated in the box score in that game, getting outgained 228-351 by the Lions, or by 129 total yards. The only reason it was close was due to a blocked field goal by the Dolphins that they returned to the 3-yard line to set up their only touchdown of the game. That was a 10-point swing in the game at the time.

Miami is still getting a lot of respect for its three-game winning streak prior to that loss to Detroit against the likes of Chicago, Jacksonville and San Diego. Well, all three of those wins are looking worse and worse by the week as the Bears, Jaguars and Chargers are all broken right now. The only real impressive win the Dolphins have this season was back in Week 1 against the Patriots back when New England was broken as well.

Buffalo simply has Miami figured out. It is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Dolphins, outscoring them a combined 71-31 in the process. They have also outgained them 973 (324.3 yards/game) to 686 (228.7 yards/game), or by an average of 95.6 yards per game. Their defense clearly has this Miami offense figured out, limiting them to just 10.3 points per game in their three consecutive victories.

The Dolphins have been relying on the pass quite a bit this season in their new offense. Well, the Bills have held four of their last five opponents to less than 200 yards passing, which is no small feat in today’s game. For the season, the Bills are surrendering just 20.2 points and 319.9 yards per game to rank 6th in the league in total defense.

The Bills are allowing 96 per game and 3.7 per carry on the ground, and 224 per game and 6.2 per attempt through the air, which are both elite numbers.  This will likely be an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between two solid defensive teams, which also favors the underdog.

Buffalo is 42-24 ATS in its last 66 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in. Miami is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 home games after covering the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +9

The UTSA Roadrunners had big expectations coming into the year. They were thinking they could win a Conference USA Title thanks to playing in a weak division. Many picked them to do so, including myself. But my opinion on this team has changed drastically from the start of the year. There just isn’t much to like about the Roadrunners, who are 2-7 and in the midst of a lost season.

The reason UTSA has struggled this year is due to its offense that simply cannot move the football and score points with any consistency. Indeed, the Roadrunners are putting up just 16.9 points per game this season while ranking 125th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense at 282.1 yards per game. They have been held to 20 or fewer points in five straight games. I just don’t trust that this UTSA offense is capable of scoring enough points to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this 9-point spread.

While it’s not saying much, the fact of the matter is that Southern Miss is one of the most improved teams in the country over a year ago. They have won three games this season and have been much more competitive in the losses, aside from a blowout at the hands of Marshall last week. Well, the Thundering Herd are likely to go 12-0 this year, so that’s no surprise.

Unlike the Roadrunners, the Eagles do have a respectable offense that has kept them in ball games. They are averaging 370.6 yards per game on the season. Their defense hasn’t been as bad as the numbers show when you consider the opposition faced. They are giving up 452 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 437 yards per game. They have certainly faced a more difficult schedule than UTSA, yet they have a better record (3-7).

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Southern Miss and UTSA have played the same three teams this year. Both are 0-3 against those teams, but there is a distinct difference. The Eagles are getting outscored by 16.3 points per game against those three teams, but only getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. The Roadrunners are getting outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 132.7 yards per game against them.

UTSA has not played well at home at all this year.  It is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its three home games.  It lost to New Mexico 9-21 as a 16.5-point favorite, only beat Florida International 16-13 as an 8-point favorite, and lost to UTEP 0-34 as a 14-point favorite.  That 34-point loss to the Miners happened just two games ago and gives you an indication of the kind of football the Roadrunners are playing of late.  They only gained 70 yards of total offense in that loss.

Plays on road underdogs (SOUTHERN MISS) – after a loss by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UTSA is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss. The Golden Eagles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Southern Miss Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts -3.5

The UMass Minutemen get a rare opportunity to play on a nationally televised stage Wednesday night in front of their home fans at McGuirk Alumni Stadium. They will certainly be jacked up for this one, while Ball State could suffer a letdown here. The Cardinals are coming off another loss to hated rival Northern Illinois at home last week, and now their chances of making a bowl game are slim to none at 3-6 on the year.

UMass has a huge edge in rest heading into this one. It last placed on October 25th against Toledo, while Ball State faced NIU last Wednesday on November 5th. The Minutemen have had essentially two and a half weeks to get ready for the Cardinals, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go in this one.

The Minutemen are the definition of a team that is better than their record would indicate. They have gone 2-7 straight up this season, but are a sensational 7-2 ATS because they have lost so many close games. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.

Their most impressive performance of the year may have come in a losing effort last time out against Toledo. They only lost 35-42 on the road as 17.5-point underdogs and were only outgained by 23 yards by the Rockets, who are 5-1 in the MAC this season. If they can play with the Rockets on the road, they can certainly play with anyone in this conference.

Despite being 2-7, the Minutemen are only getting outgained by an average of 23.0 yards per game. They have an explosive offense that is putting up 30.8 points and 435.3 yards per game this season. Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has thrown for 2,921 yards with 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season.

I really like the way that the Minutemen have played in their last three games coming in.  Prior to that narrow 7-point loss at Toledo, they had beaten Kent State 40-17 on the road followed by a 36-14 home victory over Eastern Michigan.  They racked up 482 yards of offense on the Golden Flashes, 562 yards on the Eagles, and 497 yards on the Rockets.  Dating back further, they have now amassed at least 482 yards of offense in each of their last five games.

Ball State is every bit as bad as its 3-6 record would indicate. It has only outgained two opponents all season. One was Colgate in the opener, and the other was Akron a couple weeks ago in a game the Zips were playing without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl. The Cardinals are getting outgained by an average of 45.4 yards per game on the season. Take away the Colgate game, and that number jumps to 74.9 yards per game.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on turf. UMass is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games. The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record. UMass is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five November games. Ball State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet UMass Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron -3.5

The Akron Zips are highly motivated to become bowl eligible this season. At 4-5 on the year, they know they probably need to win out to get invited to a bowl game, which is exactly what they’ll set out to do. They have lost three in a row coming in, but two of those came without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl.

Pohl returned to action against Bowling Green last week and was rusty, completing just 31 of 62 passes for 304 yards without a touchdown and three interceptions. Look for him to have shaken off the rust and to perform much better this week against a terrible Buffalo defense.

The Bulls, meanwhile, have little to play for right now after four straight losses that have dropped them to 3-6 on the season. They have been outgained badly in three of their last four games, and they lost the other game 27-37 at Eastern Michigan, which is one of the worst teams in all of the FBS. They were outgained by 255 yards by Ohio last week in a 14-37 road loss last Wednesday.

The difference in this game is going to be the Akron defense vs. the Buffalo defense. Akron has been very good on that side of the ball, giving up just 21.0 points per game, 370.2 yards per game, and 5.0 yards per play. Buffalo, meanwhile, is allowing 33.6 points per game, 424.0 yards per game, and 6.2 yards per play. You also have to consider that the Zips have played the tougher schedule by far, which makes their numbers all the more impressive.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams. Both the Zips and the Bulls have squared off against the same four teams this year. The Zips are 2-2 against those four teams, outscoring them by an average of 2.2 points per game. The Bulls are 1-3 against those same four teams, getting outscored by an average of 6.5 points per game. Akron is allowing just 18.8 points per game against those four teams, while Buffalo is yielding 34.3 points per game against them.

Terry Bowden is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after a game with 50 or more pass attempts as the coach of Akron. These high-volume passing games usually come in losses, which is why they are usually showing value the next week when they come back from them. The Zips simply beat themselves against Bowling Green by committing five turnovers. They actually outgained the Falcons for the game.  Bet Akron Tuesday.

20* Panthers/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +7

Despite their 3-5-1 start, the Carolina Panthers have plenty to look forward to the rest of the season.  That's because they play in one of the worst divisions in football, and they are actually just a half-game out of first place (Saints, 4-5).

The Panthers will be in a good frame of mind heading into this game against the Philadelphia Eagles because of it.  Also helping matters is that they have had three extra days of rest as they last played on Thursday against the Saints.

That extra rest has allowed some key players for the Panthers to get healthy.  T Byron Bell, G Amini Silatolu and G Trai Turner all missed the Saints' game with injuries.  Both Bell and Silatolu are probable to return, while Turner is still questionable.  On defense, safety Thomas DeCoud is expected back from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Saints' game.  Also, the running back corps finally has a healthy Ryan Williams and Jonathan Stewart working together.

Philadelphia has injury concerns of its own.  They are without starting quarterback Nick Foles for six weeks and defensive Captain DeMeco Ryans for the rest of the season.  Right guard Todd Herremans is also reportedly out for the season and will have surgery to repair a torn biceps.

Mark Sanchez will replace Foles, and while this is a system offense and a lot of quarterbacks would succeed in it, I just don't believe that Sanchez is as good as Foles.  He has thrown 77 touchdowns and 72 picks as a starter in the National Football League dating back to his time with the Jets.  He threw two picks in limited action against the Texans last week and cannot be trusted.

The loss of Ryans may be the biggest of them all as he was the unquestioned leader of the defense and had a team-high 45 tackles before suffering a torn right Achilles tendon on Sunday.  The Eagles rank 20th against the run and will have a hard time stopping the Panthers' ground attack, which will get a boost with the return of a couple starting linemen and a healthy backfield.

Coach Ron Rivera isn't about to give up on the Panthers.  "I've been in a race like this before, we all have," he said. "It ends up being the team that comes back, that gets up and keeps fighting. The next thing you know, you're right in the thick of things."

This line opened at Eagles -5.5 and the betting public has been all over the favorites, betting them up to the current line of -7.  That means we have passed two key numbers of 6 and 7, and that's big when we talk about value in the NFL.  There is clearly some value here in backing the Panthers as touchdown underdogs because of this line move.

Oddsmakers realize that the betting public knows that Carolina has not played well of late, forcing them to set this line so high.  Well, a closer look at the schedule shows why as the Panthers have faced the likes of the Packers, Seahawks and Saints the last three weeks, respectively.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.

Carolina is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 yards per game or more in the second half of the season.  Te Panthers are 20-8 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Carolina is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 vs. NFC foes.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Seahawks -8

After failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games coming into this one, I believe there is actually some value in backing the Seattle Seahawks this week as only 8-point home favorites against the New York Giants. They lost to both Dallas and St. Louis before beating Carolina and Oakland by a combined 10 points the last two weeks. The betting public has been killed backing them, so they are actually afraid to support them with their money again, which has kept this line lower than it should be.

However, anyone who watched that game against the Raiders last week knows that Oakland was fortunate to cover. They trailed that game 24-3 at halftime before outscoring the Seahawks 21-6 the rest of the way to get the backdoor cover. The Seahawks simply let their foot off the gas. They still held the Raiders to just 226 total yards while forcing three turnovers, and there’s no way the Raiders should have scored 24 points with those numbers.

It was the third straight dominant performance for the Seattle D, which appears to be returning to its Super Bowl form from a year ago. It held St. Louis to 272 yards, Carolina to 266 yards, and Oakland to 226 yards in its last three games, respectively. It now ranks 4th in the NFL in total defense at 304.9 yards per game. This is still one of the best teams in the NFL despite the shaky start to the season, which has been more attributed to a tough schedule than anything.

New York, on the other hand, has been one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last three weeks. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in losses to the Eagles (27-0), Cowboys (31-21) and Colts (24-40), getting outscored a combined 45-98 in the process, or by an average of 17.7 points per game. Its defense has been shredded in four straight games now.

The Giants gave up 397 yards to the Falcons, 448 yards to the Eagles, 423 yards to the Cowboys, and 443 yards to the Colts in their last four games, respectively. They have given up averages of 29.5 points and 427.8 yards per game during this stretch. They cannot stop anybody, which leaves them prone to the blowout, especially this week in a hostile environment in Seattle where the Seahawks have only lost twice over the past two seasons combined.

New York hasn’t been very good offensively since losing star receiver Victory Cruz, either. It is averaging just 15.0 points in its last three games overall. That even includes the 14 points the Giants scored against the Colts last week in garbage time in the fourth quarter. They actually trailed that game 40-10 before the Colts pulled their defensive starters, and the Giants got most of their offensive output for the entire came in the final 10 minutes. They are going to struggle offensively once again this week against a top-notch Seattle defense.

This will be a tough trip from the East Coast to the West Coast for the Giants for a late-afternoon start. Adding to that is the fact that they will be working on a short week after playing Indianapolis on Monday.  The Seahawks dominated the Giants in their 23-0 road win last season. They outgained them 327-181 for the game, or by 146 total yards. Eli Manning went 18 of 31 passing for 156 yards with a whopping five interceptions in the loss.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) – after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Seattle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games versus terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game. The Giants are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. New York is 19-43-2 ATS in its last 64 November games. Seattle is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 home games.  Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7

The Arizona Cardinals are currently the most overrated team in the NFL in my opinion due to their 7-1 start. Asking them to lay a touchdown here against a division opponent that is playing good football right now is asking too much. I’ll side with the points and the Rams in a game that will likely go right down to the wire.

The reason I believe the Cardinals are overrated is because when you look at everything outside of their record, the stats show that they are only a mediocre team in this league. In fact, the Cardinals rank 23rd in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 36.0 yards per game. They are only averaging 330.4 yards of offense and giving up 366.4 yards per game on defense.

Teams that get outgained by 36.0 yards per game would usually have a losing record on the season. In fact, all of the teams that rank 24th or worse in yardage differential behind the Cardinals have losing records with the exception of the 24th-place Cleveland Browns, who have also been fortunate to have the record that they do. The Cardinals have only committed six turnovers this year and have a +10 turnover differential on the season. That is simply unsustainable, and they will regress to the mean the rest of the way.

Considering St. Louis has beaten both Seattle and San Francisco in two of its last three games, it is fully capable of going into Arizona and pulling off the upset, let alone covering the 7-point spread. The Rams finally showed what their defense is capable of against the 49ers last week, limiting them to just 263 total yards while sacking Colin Kaepernick eight times. They will get after the much more immobile Carson Palmer in this one.

St. Louis has actually owned Arizona the last two years. It has won three of its last four meetings with the Cardinals, including two by exactly 14 points. It has held Arizona to an average of 14.7 points per game in the three wins, and I look for its defense to shut down this suspect Cardinals’ offense one again in their first meeting of 2014.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 10 games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Take the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +10

The Tennessee Titans are showing excellent value this week as they return from their bye as 10-point underdogs to the Ravens. They will be the fresher, more prepared team heading into this one. The Ravens could be in a tough state mentally after their 23-43 loss to division rival Pittsburgh last week. This could be a hangover spot for them, and their confidence has to be shot after that defeat.

Tennessee decided to give the keys to the offense to Zach Mettenberger in its last game against Houston. While it lost that game 16-30, it wasn’t because of poor play from its quarterback this time. Mettenberger turned in the best performance of any Titans’ QB this season, completing 27 of 41 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and one pick. Having two weeks to learn the offense and get accustomed to run with the first-team will do wonders for the rookie heading into this one.

This Baltimore offense has really struggled the last two weeks against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. It managed just 294 total yards against the Bengals before posting 332 total yards against the Steelers. Neither of those teams have elite defenses, so those performances were really concerning. I believe the Ravens were a bit of a fraud coming into those games because their five wins this season had come against the likes of the Steelers, Browns, Panthers, Bucs and Falcons.

The Titans are undervalued as we enter the second half of the season. They have played a tough schedule in the first half as four of their six losses have come against teams that currently have winning records and are at least two games over .500 or better. They have also failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them. That’s why oddsmakers have been forced to inflate this line Sunday.

Tennessee has played Baltimore very tough over the years. Six of the last eight meetings have been decided by 6 points or less, and the only two that weren’t were blowout wins by the Titans. So, the Titans have not lost by more than 6 points to the Ravens in any of their last eight meetings since 2001. Dating back further, the underdog is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series.

Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) – off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (BALTIMORE) – after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or worse) are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Tennessee is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Jets +4

The Jets have been the most disappointing team in the NFL up to this point. They were expected to be much better than 1-8 through their first nine games of the year, and nobody is more disappointed than Rex Ryan. They just have turned the ball over far too often this season while not getting any turnovers themselves. They have committed 18 turnovers while getting just three for a -15 differential.

Teams that have a poor turnover differential in the first half usually turn it around in the second half. Obviously, to only get three turnovers on defense, the Jets have been extremely unlucky this year. Rex Ryan is a great defensive coach, but for whatever reason, the ball is just not bouncing their way on either side of the football. I still believe this is a solid team, and the numbers certainly show that.

New York is actually outgaining opponents by an average of 4.9 yards per game. Teams with this kind of differential can usually be found with around a .500 record, or more likely a winning team than a losing one. Instead, the Jets are 1-8 on the year, and I believe they are undervalued heading into the second half of the season. They have shown no quit yet, and I don’t expect them to just pack it in.

The Jets fought tough against Kansas City last week even in a 10-24 loss. They outgained the Chiefs 364-309 for the game and arguably should have won. They kept moving the ball into Kansas City territory in the second half, but could do nothing with it as they were stopped on downs time and time again. Before that, they played tough against both Denver and New England before giving the game away against Buffalo with six turnovers.

With the worst ATS record (1-7-1) in the NFL, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Jets right now. That’s why this line opened at Pittsburgh -2.5 and was bet up to -5.5 before settling at -4 in most places. That line movement alone shows that there is value in backing the Jets this week. It has passed over a couple of key numbers in 3 and 4. Whenever you get a bargain like this, it’s usually a wise move to take advantage and back the home dog when the public is all over the short road favorite.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is extremely overvalued right now due to its three straight wins and covers coming into this game. All three of those wins came at home, and while the blowout wins over the Colts and Ravens were impressive, the Steelers have no business laying 4 points on the road this week. Pittsburgh is getting outscored 17.5 to 21.2 on the road this season.

The Steelers are in a letdown spot here off a win over their biggest rival in the Ravens, and it's certainly on the mind of Ben Roethlisberger.  "They're a lot better football team than their record looks and their defense is very good," Roethlisberger said of the Jets. "Last week is over. The week before last week is over. We're facing a good defense at their place and so we need to come out and play our best football."  Easier said than done of such a big win.

Plays on underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 92-45 (67.2%) ATS since 1983. This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams on extended losing streaks in the second half of the year. The Steelers are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Pittsburgh is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 14 points or more.  Take the Jets Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions -2.5

The Detroit Lions have shown me enough thus far in 2014 to make me believe that they are arguably the best team in the NFC. To get to 6-2 without having two of its superstars in Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for an extended period of time is simply remarkable. The Lions are certainly a sleeper to win the Super Bowl and should not be taken lightly the rest of the way.

That’s especially the case considering both Johnson and Bush had an extra week off to get healthy coming into this game. The Lions will be returning from their bye after beating the Falcons over in London, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go. Both Johnson and Bush are listed as probable, and it’s going to be fun to watch what this offense can do with these two finally healthy again.

The reason the Lions have had so much success despite mediocre production on offense is their performance on the other side of the football. The Lions are giving up just 15.7 points per game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total defense at 290.4 yards per game. They will certainly make life miserable on Ryan Tannehill and this Miami offense this week.

While I’ll admit that the Dolphins are a very good team with impressive numbers up to this point, they are simply overvalued this week off their 37-0 win against San Diego last week. Sure, the Dolphins have won three straight games coming in against the Bears, Jaguars and Chargers, but they have been gift-wrapped those wins. They have a combined +9 turnover differential in their last three games, and that is simply unsustainable moving forward.  Miami is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better.

The Dolphins have some bad injury news of their own to deal with this week. Knowshon Moreno was already out for the season with a knee injury, but now starting running back Lamar Miller is banged up. Miller left the Week 9 win against the Chargers with a shoulder injury and did not return. He is questionable to play this week, leaving the Dolphins very thin in the backfield.

Miami is going to be forced to be a one-dimensional team this week not only because of the injuries to its running backs, but also because the Lions don’t allow an inch on the ground. They rank 2nd in the league against the run, allowing just 74.0 yards per game and 3.3 per carry. With two weeks to prepare for this new Miami offense, the Lions will be ready to slow down Tannehill and company.

Plays against road teams (MIAMI) – after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -2.5

It’s amazing to think that the Falcons still feel like they have a shot to win the NFC South, but such is life in this poor division. The Falcons are very much alive for the division title as they trail the New Orleans Saints by just two games for first place. They also currently hold the tiebreaker over the Saints after beating them in Week 1.

This bye week came at a great time for Atlanta, which can clear its mind of what happened in the first half of the season and focus on making a run in the second half. That starts this week with a road game against the Bucs, who are the only team in the division that has been worse than the Falcons. With games against the Panthers and Browns the next two weeks after this, the Falcons have to feel like they can make a run.

Atlanta did play well in its last game against one of the best teams in the NFL over in London. Unfortunately, it blew a 21-0 lead over Detroit and lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 22-21. That Detroit team is now 6-2 and vying for the top spot in the NFC. It was a tough loss, but one that shows what the Falcons are capable of moving forward.

The Bucs would be winless this season if not for a fluke 27-24 win at Pittsburgh back on September 28th. It has lost four in a row coming in, including losses to both the Vikings and Browns the last two weeks. Those two performances followed up a 17-48 home loss to Baltimore on October 12th. This team simply is not that good, and they certainly can’t have a very good outlook going forward right now.

While that 31-point loss to the Ravens was bad, it wasn’t even the biggest loss the Bucs have suffered this season. They were beaten even more handily by Atlanta in the first meeting of the season by a final of 56-14 on the road. The Falcons outgained the Bucs 488-217 for the game in their most impressive effort of the season. Matt Ryan threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, while the Falcons rushed for 144 yards as a team in the win.

There’s no denying that both teams are bad defensively, but the edge clearly goes to the Falcons on the other side of the football. They rank 8th in the NFL in total offense at 375.6 yards per game, while the Bucs rank 31st in total offense at 303.9 yards per game. Matt Ryan still has two of the best weapons in the NFL in Roddy White and Julio Jones as this offense has gotten back on track with these two healthy in 2014.

Plays on road favorites (ATLANTA) – when playing with two weeks or more of rest are 85-47 (64.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (ATLANTA) – after five or more consecutive losses, in November games are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) – off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season are 39-10 (79.6%) ATS since 1983. The Bucs are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -8

This is a pretty generous line to be able to back the Ducks with. They have kicked it into high gear of late, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really make a strong push at the four-team playoff.  They have outscored their last four opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game.

Even after their 45-16 beat down of Stanford last week, they know their work isn’t done. Marcus Mariota did not come back for his junior season just to let his team suffer another letdown for a third straight year. Look for the Ducks to be 100% focused against the Utes as they know some unfinished business remains.

The Ducks once again boast one of the top offenses in the country. Putting up 45 points and 525 total yards on that Stanford defense is no small feat. They were right on par with their season averages as they put up 45.4 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. They should be able to put up another big number this week against a Utah team that is simply overrated right now.

I don’t even believe that the Utes are one of the Top 25 teams in the country even though they're ranked 17th. They have been extremely fortunate to get to 6-2 this season. In fact, the Utes have actually been outgained by their opponents in six straight games, yet they have gone 4-2 during this stretch. They are getting outgained 373.4 to 385.2 on the season and don’t have an offense explosive enough to keep up with the Ducks in this one.

Last week’s 16-19 loss to Arizona State was far from the close game that the final score would indicate. The Sun Devils actually outgained the Utes 444-241 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson went just 12-of-22 passing for 57 yards with a touchdown in the loss. Wilson isn’t going to be able to match Mariota score-for-score in this one.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Ducks are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. Oregon is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  They allowed 239 rushing yards to the Sun Devils last week.  The Ducks have rushed for 218-plus yards in four straight games and should have no problem moving the football on the ground in this one.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU -6

The TCU Horned Frogs have been the single-most underrated team in the country this season. They have gone 7-1 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in 2014 to make backers like myself a ton of money. While they were overvalued last week at West Virginia, they still nearly covered with a one-point win as a 3-point favorite. They are undervalued this week as only 6-point home favorites over the Kansas State Wildcats.

Trevone Boykin really needs to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion. He leads a new & improved TCU offense that is putting up 48.0 points and 550.0 yards per game this season to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Boykin is completing 57.0 percent of his passes for 2,472 yards with 22 touchdowns against four interceptions, while also rushing for 423 yards and four scores.

While the offense has played very well, the defense doesn’t get enough credit for the job that it has done, either. The Frogs are allowing just 22.6 points and 370.0 yards per game this season despite facing an extremely difficult schedule. Stopping Jake Waters and the Kansas State rushing attack will be key, and the Frogs are equipped to do it. They are only allowing 140 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Kansas State is nowhere near as good as the seventh-best team in the country, which is where it is currently ranked. Sure, it is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 12, but it has faced a very easy conference schedule thus far. It still has road games at TCU, WVU and Baylor left on its schedule. Its true colors will show over the next four weeks as I wouldn’t be surprise to see it go 1-3 during this stretch.

Sure, Kansas State went into Oklahoma and won 31-30, but it should never have won that game as Oklahoma’s kicker gift-wrapped it for the Wildcats. They were outgained by the Sooners 385-533 for the game, but they were able to win because Michael Hunnicut missed an extra point and a chip shot field goal with only a few ticks remaining. Look for the Wildcats to get dominated in the box score in this one as well, and to lose big like they should this time around.

TCU played Kansas State very tough on the road last year. It only lost by a final of 31-33 as an 11.5-point underdog. It’s hard to even describe how much improved these 2014 Horned Frogs are over last year’s version. They will be looking for revenge on the Wildcats at home this time around. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 29.8 points per game.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off a win against a conference rival against opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1992. TCU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games. The Horned Frogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* Virginia/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Virginia +20.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were one of the surprise teams in the early going with their 4-2 start. They had beaten the likes of Louisville and Pittsburgh with their only losses coming to BYU (33-41) and UCLA (20-28) up to that point. They would go on to lose two more close games to Duke (13-20) and North Carolina (27-28) before their worst performance of the season last week against Georgia Tech (10-35).

I believe that performance is why this line is so high, and that showing was an aberration when you look at how close their other four losses were coming in. The Cavaliers had not lost by more than eight points in any game up to that point, and they are still a very solid team. The problem is that they have failed to cover the spread in four straight, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now. That has provided us with some nice line value in this one.

Meanwhile, Florida State is coming off its big National TV win at Louisville last week, so the betting public is back on the FSU train. The Seminoles have no business being this heavily favored against a quality Virginia squad. They are in a big letdown spot here off that big win over Louisville and with a trip to Miami on deck next week. I don’t expect them to bring their best effort to the field Saturday night, which will have the Cavaliers staying within three touchdowns.

Florida State has been overvalued for most of the season. It is just 2-6 ATS in its eight games this year. It has only beaten two teams by more than 18 points this year. Those were home games against FBS foe The Citadel (37-12) as a 56.5-point favorite and Wake Forest (43-3) as a 37-point favorite. The Seminoles only beat Oklahoma State by 6, Clemson by 6, NC State by 15, Syracuse by 18, Notre Dame by 4 and Louisville by 11. I believe Virginia is better than half of those teams.

This Virginia defense is fully capable of limiting this FSU offense. The Cavaliers are only giving up 24.2 points, 344.7 yards, and 5.0 yards per play against opponents who average 29.3 points, 421 yards, and 5.7 yards per play this season. Florida State is allowing 22.7 points, 388.6 yards, and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 25.3 points, 371 yards, and 5.2 per play. The Seminoles rank just 10th in the ACC in total defense.

“We’re playing for coach (Mike) London, we’re playing for our teammates, we’re playing for the season, we’re playing for a bowl game,” said tight end Zachary Swanson, who played on the ’11 team that beat FSU 14-13 in Tallahassee. “We have three more opportunities to win two and I think it’s a big thing for us to get these wins, and play hard, for whatever our reasons may be.”

The Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Seminoles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Idaho +21

The oddsmakers are asking San Diego State to cover a very big number here against Idaho, and I don't believe the Aztecs are capable of doing so.  That's why I'll side with the road underdog Vandals here catching three touchdowns in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire.

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 1-7 Idaho team.  That record is the reason they are showing such good value here.  However, a closer investigation shows that they are a much better football team than that record would indicate.

Five of the Vandals' seven losses have come by 16 points or fewer.  The other two were a 24-point loss to South Alabma and a 23-point loss at Georgia Southern, which is a team that is one of the most underrated in the country.

Idaho comes into this game playing some very good football.  It has actually outgained three of its last four opponents despite going 1-3 during this stretch.  The lone exception was that 23-point road loss to Georgia Southern, which again, isn't a bad loss at all.

When I take big underdogs like this, I like them to be able to put up points because that always gives them a chance to score and get a backdoor cover if need be.  While I don't think that will be needed in this one, I do like what I've seen from this Idaho offense.

Indeed, the Vandals are scoring 26.1 points per game and averaging 426.0 yards per game.  Matt Linehan is completing 60.9 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards on the season, and Jerrel Brown has rushed for 451 yards while averaging 5.2 per carry.  Elijhaa Penny has added 368 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

San Diego State is just 4-4 on the season.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Northern Arizona, UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii.  It has only won one game by more than 17 points this season, and that was against FCS foe NAU.  It only beat Hawaii by 10, New Mexico by 10, and UNLV by 17, which are three awful teams that I believe Idaho could beat.

The Aztecs simply lack the offense to cover such a big number like this one.  They are only scoring 22.1 points per game and averaging 388.7 yards per game.  That's really bad when you consider that their eight opponents faced thus far average giving up 33.1 points per game and 451 yards per game on defense.

Plays on road underdogs (IDAHO) - off a home loss by 14 or more points, with 17 or more total starters returning are 69-34 (67%) ATS since 1992.  The Vandals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Aztecs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Off a big loss at Nevada last week, and with Boise State on deck, this is certainly a letdown spot for SDSU as well.  I don't expect them to have the kind of focus or the offensive firepower it will take to win this game by more than three touchdowns against a sneaky Vandals squad.  Roll with Idaho Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -14

This line has been bet up from -10 to -14 already and I still don't believe it's enough.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are an under-the-radar team from the Sun Belt that the oddsmakers just haven't been able to keep up with.

The Eagles are 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to NC State (23-24) and Georgia Tech (38-42) by a combined five points.  Six of their seven wins have come by 20 points or more, so this team has been blowing out the opposition on the regular.

Georgia Southern boasts a potent offense that is putting up 44.4 points, 519.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  It is giving up just 20.9 points, 379.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  As you can see, it is outscoring opponents by an average of 23.5 points per game and outgaining foes by 139.9 yards per game.

Texas State is a quality team, but it isn't capable of keeping up with the Eagles in this one.  That's because its defense is giving 27.7 points, 460.9 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  That is really bad when you consider its opponents are only averaging 384 yards per game on the season, so it is allowing roughly 77 yards per game more than its opposing offenses have averaged on the season.

This is just a terrible matchup for the Bobcats.  They are allowing 218 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  There's no way they are going to be able to slow down a Georgia Southern rushing attack that is averaging 407 yards per game and 7.4 yards per carry on the year.  The Eagles are going to score and score some more because there's nothing the Bobcats are going to be able to do to stop them.

Plays on road favorites (GA SOUTHERN) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Texas State is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +7

I believe the Wyoming Cowboys are undervalued as 7-point home underdogs coming into this one. At 4-5 on the season, they desperately need to win this game if they want a chance to become bowl eligible because they still have Boise State remaining on the schedule. I’ve been very impressed with the job that Craig Bohl has done in his first season here, making the Cowboys far more competitive than they were expected to be.

Sure, Wyoming lost four straight games prior to beating Fresno State 45-17 last week, but it was competitive in every game aside from a 14-56 loss at Michigan State that started the skid. It only lost by 10 at Hawaii, by 7 to San Jose State in overtime, and by 14 at Colorado State as a 19.5-point underdogs. That tough stretch of games had the Cowboys battle-tested heading into last week’s game against Fresno State, and boy did they put on a show.

The Cowboys are coming off their best performance of the season against the Bulldogs last week. They won by a whopping 28 points on the road despite being 16-point underdogs in that contest. They outgained the Bulldogs 694-316 for the game as this was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. Colby Kirkegaard threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, while Brian Hill rushed for 281 yards and two scores on 23 carries in the win.

Utah State is coming off a 35-14 blowout win of its own at Hawaii last week, but it is overvalued here as a result. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Aggies only outgained the Warriors 465-454 for the game. The Aggies benefited from a defensive touchdown and finished +3 in turnover differential in the win.

While I admit that Kent Myers looked very good in his first start for the Aggies against the Warriors, he wasn’t asked to do much as he threw for just 186 yards on 15 attempts in the win. Meyers is a freshman who was supposed to redshirt, but since there have been injuries to the top three quarterbacks on the roster, he has been forced into action. The Aggies certainly should not be a touchdown road favorite here with a fourth-string quarterback under center.

Wyoming is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to San Jose State by a final of 20-27 in overtime. The crowd will be rowdy for this one as this is a rare opportunity for the Cowboys to showcase themselves on National TV. This game will be nationally televised on ESPN 2 Friday night, which will just add more fuel to the fire for the Cowboys. They come in with a ton of confidence off that win against Fresno State last week.

The Cowboys are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

15* Memphis/Temple AAC Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -7.5

The Temple Owls are in a massive letdown spot here against the Memphis Tigers. They are coming off their biggest win of the season against a ranked opponent in East Carolina. They won that game 20-10, but when you look at the box score, it’s easy to see that it was a complete fluke. The Owls were outgained by the Pirates 135-432 for the game, or by 297 total yards. The difference was that ECU committed five turnovers while the Owls didn’t commit a single one.

That was the third straight lousy performance for the Owls offensively. They only managed 10 points and 357 total yards in a 10-31 loss to Houston on October 17th. They came back and scored just 14 points behind 182 total yards in a 14-34 loss at UCF on October 25th. So, in their last three games combined, Temple has averaged just 16.0 points and 224.7 yards per game.

That’s not going to cut it this week against a Memphis team that is vastly improved over a year ago. Its only three losses this season have come to the likes of UCLA (35-42), Ole Miss (3-24) and Houston (24-28). That’s how close this is to being a 7-1 team right now. The Tigers even trailed the Rebels 7-3 on the road entering the fourth quarter before giving up 17 points in the final period.

Despite playing this tough schedule, the Tigers have put up the kind of numbers that show they are a real contender to win the American Athletic this year after their 3-1 start in conference play. They are scoring 36.2 points and averaging 448.0 yards per game on offense, while giving up just 19.4 points and 350.6 yards per game on defense. In conference play alone, the Tigers are ouscoring teams 38.2 to 18.0 and outgaining them 496.5 to 342.0.

Temple is 3-2 in conference play, but it’s a complete fluke. The Owls are outscoring teams 23.0 to 21.8 within the conference, but they are getting outgained 288.6 to 416.4 in AAC play. So, Memphis is outgaining conference opponents by an average of 154.5 yards per game, while Temple is getting outgained in AAC play by an average of 127.8 yards per game. Without question, the Tigers are the better team despite their identical 5-3 records, and that will show on the football field Friday night.

Memphis is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 November road games. Temple is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 75 or less passing yards in its previous game. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Memphis Friday.

20* Browns/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -6

While the Browns are certainly improved this season, they have benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the league.  This 5-3 team is clearly a fraud, and they will be exploited Thursday night against a much superior Bengals squad.  The Browns have played five home games compared to three road games. 

While the Browns have gone 4-1 at home, they are just 1-2 on the road with their only win coming at Tennessee 29-28 as they had to erase a 25-point deficit to get that win.  They also lost at Pittsburgh 27-30 after trailing in that game by 24 points.  Perhaps the game that most exemplifies the kind of team that Browns are is their 6-24 road loss to Jacksonville, which has proven to be the only win of the season thus far for the Jaguars.

Cincinnati simply does not lose at home.  It is now 12-0-1 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in all regular season home games over the last two seasons.  The Bengals have one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the league.  They are outscoring teams 30.8 to 20.6 at home this season, or by an average of 10.6 points per game.  Their offense is averaging 411.6 yards per game at home this year, and now Andy Dalton has the luxury of a healthy A.J. Green back in the lineup.

Cleveland has not been able to run the football since losing center Alex Mack to a season-ending injury.  Despite playing the Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs the last three weeks, the Browns have only been able to rush for an average of 52.7 yards per game.  It's not like they are abandoning the run, either.  They have gained 158 yards on a whopping 83 carries in their last three games, an average of a mere 1.9 yards per rush.  They are one-dimensional and easy to defend now.

One fact that shows the Browns are not as good as their 5-3 record would indicate is that they rank 24th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 39.5 yards per game.  They are averaging 352.3 yards of offense while giving up 391.8 yards per game on defense.  That's really bad when you consider how easy their schedule has been.

It's also worth noting that the Browns could be without two of their biggest weapons on offense this week.  Tight end Jordan Cameron is doubtful to play with a concussion, while leading receiver Andrew Hawkins (39 receptions, 504 yards, 1 TD) is questionable with a knee injury.  For an offense already short on weapons because Josh Gordon (suspension) remains out, this is very bad news.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Cleveland and Cincinnati as well.  Indeed, the home team has won five straight and eight of the last nine meetings.  Cincinnati beat Cleveland 41-20 at home last year, and a similar beat down can be expected in this one given how poorly the Browns have played on the road this year, and how well the Bengals have played at home.

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS after having won three out of their last four games over the past three years.  Cincinnati is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 home games overall.  The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

20* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3

While the Huskies are not as dominant as they have been over the past several years, they are still one of the best teams in the MAC at 6-2 on the season with their only losses coming to Arkansas and Central Michigan.  They have taken care of business against all other comers, and have actually played their best football on the road.  They beat the likes of Northwestern, UNLV and Eastern Michigan for a 3-1 record in road games this year.

Despite the losses of two of the best quarterbacks the MAC has ever seen in recent years in Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch, the Huskies are still performing at a high level offensively.  They are scoring 31.6 points and averaging 464.9 yards per game.  Drew Hare is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 1,226 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 581 yards and five scores on 7.6/carry.  He's the next great dual-threat QB for this program.

Ball State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers in this one as only a 3-point underdog.  That's because it has won its last two games against Central Michigan and Akron.  Well, Central Michigan gave that game away as it outgained the Cardinals by 139 total yards but committed five turnovers in a 29-32 loss.  Akron was playing without starting QB Kyle Pohl in its 21-35 loss to the Cardinals and blew a 21-13 halftime lead thanks to committing five turnovers as well.  So, Ball State has benefited from 10 turnovers by the opposition in its two wins, and that is unsustainable.

The reason the Cardinals stand little chance of keeping this game competitive is because of their offense.  They are only averaging 364 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that are allowing 406 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Defensively, they are giving up 404 yards per game and 5.9 per play against teams that average 374 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  Simply put, the Cardinals are not a very good team this year when you look at the numbers.

Northern Illinois is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Ball State, which includes two blowout victories on the road by finals of 35-23 and 59-21.  The Huskies have put up 569 yards, 509 yards, and 710 yards on the Cardinals in their last three meetings, respectively. 

The Huskies are averaging 269 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season, which is bad news for the Cardinals, who are giving up 188 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry. 

The Huskies are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%.  The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home record of .500 or worse.  Northern Illinois is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games overall.  Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

15* MAC Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +6.5

Asking the Akron Zips to win by a touchdown or more to cover against the defending MAC champs is too much. Sure, Bowling Green isn’t nearly as strong as it was a year ago, but it is still arguably the better team this season at 5-3 compared to the Zips, who are 4-4. I’d much rather take my chances with the road underdog in this one and the points.

The Falcons will have a big edge in this one in the rest department as they last played on October 18th. Meanwhile, the Zips last played on October 25th, so the Falcons have an extra week of preparation for this game under their belts. They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the football field in this one and correct their mistakes from a 14-26 loss to Western Michigan last time out.

Akron has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games overall and clearly has been overvalued since an upset win against Pittsburgh. It is coming off two straight outright losses at Ohio (20-23) and at Ball State (21-35) despite being favored in both contests. This team has no business laying a touchdown tonight off its last four performances.

Bowling Green boasts an offense that has put up 31 or more points in six of its eight games this season. It is averaging 33.6 points and 454.7 yards per game on the season. James Knapke has filled in nicely for the injured Matt Johnson, completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 1,958 yards and 10 touchdowns, while also rushing for 157 yards and five scores. Travis Greene (636 yards, 8 TD, 5.0/carry) and Fred Coppet (366 yards, 5 TD, 5.1/carry) have been a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Akron, on the other hand, is putting up just 22.9 points and 382.7 yards per game this year. That’s why it cannot be trusted to lay points because it struggles to put points on the scoreboard itself. The Zips have been held to 21 or fewer points in five of their eight games this season. They only managed 318 yards against Miami (Ohio), 352 yards against Ohio, and 325 yards against Ball State in their last three games, respectively.

The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Zips.  They have won four of those five games by 14 points or more as well while outscoring them by an average of 15.0 points per game.  As you can see, this has clearly been a one-sided series in recent years.

Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games off an upset loss as a favorite. Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit home loss. The Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games overall. The Zips are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

20* Colts/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +3.5

The New York Giants are essentially in a must-win situation here at 3-4 on the season and two games behind both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the NFC East. They will bring their best effort to the field Monday night because of it. Also helping that will be the fact that they’ll be coming off their bye with two weeks of rest and preparation for the Colts.

The Giants obviously have not looked great in their last two games against the Eagles and Cowboys following a three-game winning streak. I believe the answer to how good this team is lies somewhere between their last two losses and their previous three blowout wins over the Texans, Redskins and Falcons all by 10 points or more.

With two weeks off coming in, the Giants will play closer to the team that blew out those three opponents than the one that lost their last two games.  Victor Cruz is a big loss, but having two weeks to prepare without him will give the Giants plenty of time to around his absence.  Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham are fine young receivers who will become more of a focal point of the offense, along with tight end Larry Donnell.

Indianapolis was exposed last week in a 34-51 road loss to Pittsburgh. It gave up a ridiculous 639 total yards to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger had a career game, completing 40-of-49 passes for over 500 yards and six touchdowns. Eli Manning, who is becoming a lot more comfortable with this west coast system in New York, should have a field day against this Colts defense as well. After all, it was the fourth time this year that the Colts had surrendered 28 or more points.

The Colts were overvalued last week as 4.5-point favorites against the Steelers on the road. They had come into that contest on a five-game winning streak and were playing very good football. It looks like the betting public is completely overlooking that loss to the Steelers and still pounding the Colts this week.

That’s why the Colts are still 3.5-point road favorites in this game when they shouldn’t even be favored at all.  This line is essentially saying that the Colts would be 6.5 to 7-point favorites on a neutral field, which is way off.  Not only is there value with the Giants, I also like the fact that this game will be played outdoors.  The weather is getting colder in New York and the Colts are used to playing inside the dome at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Plays against road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) – after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1983. Tom Coughlin is 30-13 ATS vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game as the coach of New York.  Bet the Giants Monday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Steelers UNDER 48

The Baltimore Ravens versus Pittsburgh Steelers is arguably the biggest rivalry in the NFL today.  This game is always played close to the vest as these players literally hate each other.  The end result is usually a physical, defensive battle, and I expect that to be the case in their second meeting of 2014 Sunday.

A ridiculous 14 of the last 15 meetings between Pittsburgh and Baltimore have seen 43 or fewer combined points.  That's a 14-1 system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 48 points.  The only exception was a 31-24 win by Pittsburgh in the 2010-11 playoffs.  Even that final of 55 combined points was a complete fluke.  The Ravens managed 24 points with only 126 yards of offense, while the Steelers scored 31 with only 263 total yards.

There is clearly a ton of value in backing the UNDER 48 in this game.  I had the under 44 the first time these teams played on September 11th and thought there was a lot of value with that number because that 44-point total was the biggest it had been in this series since 1997.  The Ravens won 26-6 for 32 combined points.  You can just imagine how my eyes lit up when I saw this 48-point total for the first time this week.

The biggest reason this number has been set so high is because both teams went over the total last week and while scoring and giving up a lot of points.  The Steelers beat the Colts 51-34 in the highest-scoring game of the week, while the Ravens lost to the Bengals 24-27.  Those performances were clearly aberrations and not the norm for these teams.  Had they not both played in shootouts, this total would have been set around the 44-point range just as it was in the first meeting.  I believe this total should be set closer to 40 points when you look at the history of this series.

Baltimore still has one of the best defenses in the league.  It is giving up just 16.4 points per game on the season, and it held the Steelers to just a pair of field goals the first time these teams played.  Baltimore did managed 26 points in that game, but the Steelers held the Ravens to a respectable 323 total yards.  

These teams just know each other so well inside and out that points are always hard to come bye.  Neither team is going to pull a fast one on the other.  There are no surprises when they get together.  Both teams bring their hard hats and slug it out, plain and simple.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 25-6 (80.6%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Steelers last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oakland Raiders +14.5

The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks are suffering the dreaded Super Bowl hangover this season. They aren’t playing nearly as well as they did a year ago, and as a result, they are just 3-4 against the spread this season. They have only won one game by more than 10 points this season, which was all the way back in their opener against Green Bay. Asking them to win by more than two touchdowns to beat us this week is simply asking too much.

Seattle has lost two of its last three games while going 0-3 ATS in the process. Its only win came on a last-second touchdown at Carolina last week by a final of 13-9. The defense has given up 20 or more points in four of the last six games and is nowhere near as dominant as last year. The offense has been OK this year, but the trade of Percy Harvin and the questions surrounding Marshawn Lynch’s future are weighing heavily right now.

While the Super Bowl hangover is the real deal, one of the biggest contributing factors to that is the fact that the defending Super Bowl champ has a massive target on its back. Teams that are having bad seasons will bring their “A” game against the defending champs. I look for that to be the case this week as the Raiders would love nothing more than to pick up their first victory of the season against the Seahawks.

While that is unlikely to happen, the Raiders are certainly capable of staying within 14 points of the Seahawks this week. They have hung tough the last three weeks against the likes of San Diego, Arizona and Cleveland, losing all three of those games by 11 or fewer points. They arguably outplayed the Browns last week, but lost by a final of 13-23 despite outgaining them 387-306 for the game.

I like the progression I’ve seen from Derek Carr this year. The rookie quarterback has played very well in two of the past three games. He threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns against the Chargers three weeks ago. He threw for 328 yards and a touchdown without an interception last week against Cleveland. Carr is taking care of the football, throwing nine touchdowns against five picks on the season.

Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – off a road loss in November games are 70-26 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – after 7 or more consecutive losses and winless on the season are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1983. As you can see, winless teams after Week 7 have been a very profitable bet throughout the years. There is clearly some value in backing Oakland as a 14.5-point dog this week, and we'll take advantage.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +10

I know the Jets have not been playing good, but that’s the reason why this line is as high as it is. Oddsmakers realize that the betting public is going to want nothing to do with the Jets this week because of their seven-game losing streak coming in. That’s why there is some serious line value here in taking the Jets as double-digit dogs if you can stomach backing them this week.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is overvalued due to winning four of its last five games overall. It has also covered the spread in five of its last six games, while New York has gone 1-6-1 ATS in all games this season for the worst ATS mark in the entire NFL. That has created the perfect storm here where the only choice is to play the Jets because the Chiefs are not 10 points better than them.

The Jets turned the ball over a whopping six times last week against Buffalo in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. They actually outgained the Bills by 32 yards in the game.  When you look at the numbers, this Jets team is not that bad as they are only getting outgained by 1.5 yards per game on the season. They actually rank 6th in the league in total defense, giving up just 320.8 yards per game.

If the offense quits turning the ball over, the Jets will be a tough team to beat this week. That’s why head coach Rex Ryan has named Michael Vick the starter with the hope that he can take care of the ball better than Geno Smith, who has thrown seven touchdowns against 10 interceptions this year. I believe Vick will give the team the spark they need to be much more competitive this week against the Chiefs.

If you can look past the loss to Buffalo, you will find that the Jets actually played the Broncos and Patriots very tough the previous two weeks. They did lose by 14 to Denver at home, but they were only down a touchdown late before giving up a pick-six in the closing seconds. They only lost 25-27 at New England while outgaining the Patriots 423-323 in a game they should have won.  If they can play with the Broncos and Patriots, the two best teams in the AFC, they can certainly play with the Chiefs.

Plays on road teams (NY JETS) – after six or more consecutive losses, in November games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after seven or more consecutive losses against opponent after two or more consecutive wins are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.

This trend just goes to show that backing teams on long losing streaks against teams on extended winning streaks has been a very profitable move over the years. It makes sense because the line is always inflated, as is the case in this game. The Chiefs are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Take the Jets Sunday.

15* Utah State/Hawaii Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Utah State Aggies have no business being favored on the road at Hawaii, which has historically been a much better home team than a road team for obvious reasons.  I'll take the points with the Warriors in this one in a game they'll likely win outright.

Utah State is living too much off reputation as being one of the better non-Power 5 conference teams in the country over the last few seasons.  That certainly isn't the case in 2014.  Sure, they are 5-3 this season, but a closer look at their five victories shows that none of them have been impressive.

Utah State has beaten the likes of Idaho State, Wake Forest, BYU, Air Force and UNLV this season.  Sure, the win over BYU stands out, but that was the same game that star quarterback Taysom Hill broke his leg midway through the contest.  The Cougars never recovered and were deflated for the rest of the game, and the Aggies took advantage.

Speaking of quarterback injuries, the Aggies have the worst situation in the country in that department.  They lost Chuckie Keeton to a season-ending injury.  Backup Darrell Garretson played well in his place before going down as well.  If that wasn't enough, third-stringer Craig Harrison i snow out with a knee injury.

That leaves fourth-string quarterback Kent Myers to take over the starting QB duties this week against Hawaii.  Myers is a freshman who was expected to redshirt this year, but now he'll be thrust into the action against Hawaii.  Make no mistake, teams down to their fourth-string QB usually aren't successful, just ask Maryland a few years back.

Hawaii may be just 2-6 this season, but I have seen signs that this team is better than that record would indicate.  It only lost to Washington (16-17) and Oregon State (30-38) at home by a combined nine points, a pair of Pac-12 opponents.  It beat Wyoming and Northern Iowa at home, while also taking a 10-0 lead against Nevada last week before eventually losing 18-26 at home.  All six of its losses have come by 14 points or fewer, and five by 10 points or less, so it's not like it has been really blown out in any game.

The Warriors are 51-28 at home compared to 20-38 on the road over the past 10-plus seasons.  The Aggies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nevada -3

The Nevada Wolf Pack (5-3) deserve a lot more credit than they are getting as only 3-point home favorites over the San Diego State Aztecs (4-3) in this game Saturday.  I look for them to win this one going away and to cover this generous spread with ease.

Nevada has beaten a Pac-12 opponent in Washington State by a final of 24-13 at home while losing to one of the better teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 28-35 on the road as a 20-point underdog.  It has also gone on the road and beaten San Jose State (21-10), BYU (42-35) and Hawaii (26-18).

The Wolf Pack's other two losses came to very good teams as underdogs to both Boise State (46-51) and Colorado State (24-31) at home.  So, as you can see, all three of their losses have come by a touchdown or less against great opponents.  That's how close this is to being an 8-0 team.

San Diego State doesn't have an impressive win yet.  Its four victories have resulted in two home wins over Northern Arizona, UNLV and Hawaii, as well as a road win at New Mexico.  Its three losses have come against the best three teams it has faced in North Carolina, Oregon State and Fresno State all on the road.

The Aztecs have played a much easier schedule than the Wolf Pack up to this point.  They have gone 1-3 on the road this season where they are getting outscored 17.7 to 24.2 on average.  As stated before, their lone road win came at New Mexico, which is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West.

Cody Fajardo is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and he leads a Nevada offense that is putting up 29.9 points and 414.1 yards per game this season.  He is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 1,814 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year, while also rushing for 585 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per rush.

Nevada wants revenge from a pair of close losses to San Diego State over the past two seasons.  It lost 44-51 on the road last season to the Aztecs in overtime despite gaining 564 total yards in the loss.  It also fell 38-39 at home in overtime to the Aztecs in 2012 despite outgaining them 480-349 for the game.  So, after back-to-back overtime losses, you can bet that the Wolf Pack have had this game circled on their calendars for quite some time.

The Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.  Nevada is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  The Wolf Pack are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aztecs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

15* Auburn/Ole Miss SEC West No-Brainer on Ole Miss -1.5

The loss by Ole Miss last week to LSU is keeping this line lower than it should be. I believe the Rebels are the better team in this one, and their home-field advantage is worth more than what is factored into this line. Oddsmakers are actually saying that Auburn is the better team if they are only giving Ole Miss credit for three points for their home field. I’m not buying it.

I would argue that Ole Miss has the best defense in the entire country. After all, it is only giving up an average of 10.5 points per game on the season. What makes that so impressive is the brutal schedule that it has faced already having to take on the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. It held all three of those teams to 20 or fewer points, and I look for it to do the same against Auburn en route to victory.

The Rebels have been dominant at home this season, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 24.7 points per game. They have beaten four quality teams at home as well in Louisiana Lafayette (56-15), Memphis (24-3), Alabama (23-17) and Tennessee (34-3). If they can beat Alabama, they can certainly beat Auburn as I believe the Crimson Tide are a much better team than the Tigers.

Auburn has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this year in my opinion. That has shown in recent weeks as it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. It only beat Kansas State 20-14 as a 7-point road favorite, it lost at Mississippi State 23-38 as a 3-point road favorite, and it barely beat South Carolina 42-35 at home last week as an 18-point favorite.

The Rebels certainly have a massive edge in this one defensively. The Tigers have been hemorrhaging points and yards over their last two games. Indeed, they have given up averages of 36.5 points and 502.0 yards per game during this stretch. They surrendered 38 points and 469 total yards to Mississippi State, and 35 points and 535 total yards to South Carolina, which had been struggling offensively prior to last week’s game.

Ole Miss certainly wants revenge on Auburn from its 22-30 road loss last year in a game that it should have won. It actually outgained the Tigers 464-375 for the game. Bo Wallace threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in the loss, but his two interceptions proved to be costly. Nick Marshall went just 11 of 17 passing for 93 yards for the Tigers.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the last seven meetings. The Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Ole Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. Hugh Freeze is 24-10 ATS in all games as the coach of Ole Miss.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kentucky +8

The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the entire country this year.  I fully believe they'll go into Columbia and give the Missouri Tigers a run for their money and likely pull off the upset this weekend, though we'll take the points for some added insurance.

Kentucky (5-3) is so close to becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010 that it can taste it.  A victory at Missouri would accomplish that feat following a disastrous 2-10 campaign last year.  The Wildcats almost have to be looking at this game like a must-win because their remaining schedule is difficult.  They play Georgia at home, followed by road games at Tennessee and Louisville.

Four of the Wildcats' five victories this season have come by double-digits.  They also beat South Carolina 45-38 at home in their best win of the year.  They have only been blown out once this season, which was at LSU in a game they just didn't show up.  They only lost at Florida by a final of 30-36 (OT).

Last week's performance against the No. 1 team in the country in Mississippi State shows that the Wildcats can play with anyone.  They were an onside kick away from getting the ball back and having a chance to score late to tie that game.  Instead, the Bulldogs returned the kick for a touchdown to put the game away in a 45-31 victory. 

The Wildcats managed 504 total yards against Mississippi State and have a legitimate offense this year.  They are putting up 31.6 points and 426.5 yards per game on the season.  Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles is the future of this program.  He is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 2,077 yards with 12 touchdowns and only four picks this season, while also rushing for 204 yards and four scores.

There's no question that the Wildcats have a massive edge in this one on offense.  The Tigers are only averaging 330.7 yards per game on the season to rank 117th in the country out of 128 FBS teams in total offense.  With that kind of suspect offense, the Tigers have no business laying more than a touchdown in this game.

Kentucky is also improved on the other side of the football.  While Missouri has a slight edge on defense in giving up 350.9 yards per game, the Wildcats aren't far behind.  They are allowing just 24.7 points and 377.6 yards per game on the season.  This stop unit is good enough to keep them in the game this weekend.

I believe Missouri is way overvalued this week due to its 42-13 win at Florida two weeks ago.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but when you consider the Tigers only managed 119 yards of total offense and scored just one offensive touchdown, it really wasn't.  They can't rely on getting five non-offensive touchdowns every week like they did in that game.

That was a big reason why I faded Missouri last week as a 21.5-point home favorite against Vanderbilt, which is easily the worst team in the SEC by a wide margin.  The Commodores kept it close, losing by a final of 14-24 to the Tigers on the road.  Remember, Indiana upset Missouri 31-27 on the road earlier this season, and Georgia also beat Missouri 34-0 in Columbia a few weeks back.

Plays against home favorites (MISSOURI) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +23.5

I believe this number is too big Saturday. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are playing well and are one of the top 15 teams in the country, but I don’t believe the 23.5-point spread is warranted. I faded them last week with success and backed Rutgers in an 18-point loss as a 20-point underdog. I believe Purdue is every bit as good as Rutgers, especially with the way it has been playing of late.

The Boilermakers are in a good spot here as they’ll be returning from their bye week having two weeks to prepare for the Huskers. They nearly upset Minnesota on the road last time out, falling short by a final of 38-39 as 12-point underdogs. It was the third straight game where they played well. They beat Illinois 38-27 on the road as 10-point underdogs, and they only lost to Michigan State by 14 at home as 21.5-point dogs. They have actually covered five of their last six games against the spread, and they are still undervalued here.

This Purdue offense has really kicked it in gear of late. It has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games overall. Austin Appleby has stepped up his play at the quarterback position. He is now completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 655 yards with six touchdowns and four picks on the year, performing much better than Danny Etling did before Appleby took over the job for good. Appleby has also rushed for 164 yards and four scores. Akeem Hunt (640 yards, 6.2/carry, 5 TD) and Raheem Mostert (466 yards, 6.1/carry, 3 TD) are two of the most underrated backs in the league.

Nebraska has a big game at Wisconsin on deck in its next game, and it certainly could be looking ahead to that contest. I just don’t believe that the Cornhuskers are as good as they get credit for as they have faced a very easy schedule up to this point. Sure, they only lost by five at Michigan State (22-27), but they were down 27-3 in that game. It was decided well before they came back with those 19 points in the fourth quarter of garbage time.

The Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Purdue is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +11

This rivalry game is always played close to the vest. That’s why it doesn’t always matter what the team’s records are coming into it. The last four meetings have all been decided by 8 points or less. Georgia won 23-20 last year, 17-9 in 2012, and 23-20 in 2011, while Florida won 34-31 (OT) in 2010. The Gators will be out for revenge in this one after losing the last three by such small margins.

The betting public wants nothing to do with Florida after it lost to Missouri 13-42 in its last game. However, a closer look at the box score shows that there’s no way in hell the Gators should have lost that game by such a wide margin. They actually gave up just 119 total yards and one offensive touchdown to the Tigers. Missouri scored a ridiculous five non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which was a complete fluke.

Considering Florida nearly beat LSU the week before, I have no doubt that this is still a quality team despite its 3-3 record. The Gators lost to LSU 27-30, which is the same LSU team that just beat previously unbeaten Ole Miss last week. The Gators held the Tigers to just 305 total yards. They also held Missouri to the 119 yards and Tennessee to 233 yards in their last three contests.

The biggest reason Florida has a chance to keep this game close is its defense, which ranks 12th in the country in giving up just 312.8 yards per game on the season. Georgia has a solid stop unit as well, giving up 320.6 yards per game, but I have no doubt that Florida has the better overall defense in this one.

The edge does go to Georgia offensively, but it’s not like the Bulldogs are one of the top offenses in the country. They are averaging a pedestrian 437.1 yards per game to rank 49th in total offense. They have been impressive in their last two games without Todd Gurley, but they will really miss him in this game.  Also, Georgia is overvalued this week due to its five-game winning streak coming in.  It hasn't beaten a single great team during this stretch as its wins have come against Troy, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Arkansas.

The Florida offense should be better with Treon Harris as the starter. Will Muschamp has decided to bench Jeff Driskel, who has been simply atrocious at the quarterback position up to this point.  Harris has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and one pick in limited action. I believe this Florida defense will keep them in the ball game, while Harris will make enough plays to keep the Gators within this double-digit spread.

Florida is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 games following a two-game home stand. Georgia is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 games off a double-digit road win. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a bye week. The Bulldogs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.  Take Florida Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina +15

This feels a lot like last year when North Carolina opened 1-5 and went 6-1 down the stretch.  After starting 2-4, the Tar Heels have won their last two games with a home win over Georgia Tech as a narrow favorite and an upset win at Virginia.  Their only loss in their last three games came at Notre Dame by a final of 43-50 as a 16.5-point underdog, which I would consider a very good loss.

This North Carolina offense will keep it in every game from here forward.  It is averaging 37.4 points and 442.5 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,035 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing (497 yards, 5 TD).

Miami doesn't have a win over a really great opponents yet.  It has beaten the likes of Florida A&M, Arkansas State, Duke, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech.  It has lost to the three best opponents it has faced in Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28) all by double-digits.  Asking the Hurricanes to win by more than two touchdowns to cover against the Tar Heels is simply asking too much.

The underdog has gone 8-1-1 ATS in the the last 10 meetings in this series while pulling off five outright upsets in the process.  The last three meetings have all been decided by 6 points or less, and six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  The road team has won each of the last three meetings.

UNC is 9-2 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two years.  North Carolina is 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Miami is 2-9 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +24.5

I realize that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane have lost six straight games coming into this contest. However, that streak has made them way undervalued heading into this game against a much-improved Memphis squad. I certainly like their chances of staying within 24 points of the Tigers in this battle between former Conference USA rivals.

I’ve seen enough from Tulsa even in some losses to know that its is more than capable of keeping this game within 24 points. It only lost to Texas State 34-37 as a 3-point favorite, it lost to Tempe on the road 24-35 as a 17-point underdog, and it lost to South Florida 30-38 at home as a 2-point dog. I know Memphis is better than all three of those teams, but asking it to win by 25-plus points to cover is asking too much.

The one thing that gives Tulsa a chance to keep this game close is its offense, which is putting up a very impressive 433.3 yards per game this season, which is only slightly behind Memphis (451.1 YPG). In their last four games, the Golden Hurricane put up 434 yards against Texas State, 390 yards against Colorado State, 438 yards against Temple, and 488 yards against South Florida.

Tulsa quarterback Dane Evans has played pretty well this season. He is completing 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,941 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Zach Langer (436 yards, 4.2/carry) and James Flanders (330 yards, 4.5/carry) have provided steady play at running back. Keevan Lucas (64 receptions, 809 yards, 8 TD) is one of the most underrated receivers in the country.

Tulsa has had two full weeks to prepare for Memphis. The Golden Hurricane last played on October 18th, while the Tigers last played on October 25th. That extra week of preparation is going to be huge in this game, especially with the Tigers working on a short week already after having played on Saturday.

While I admit that the Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country, they are finally getting too much respect this week.  They have covered the spread in five of their seven games this year, and the betting public has taken notice.  They have no business being a 24-point favorite against almost any FBS opponent outside of SMU.  They were 'only' a 23-point favorite against awful SMU last week, and they are getting too much respect this week after blowing them out.

Memphis is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more in its previous game. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a double-digit road win. Memphis is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off a win against a conference opponent.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -2.5

The Saints are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now due to their 3-4 record.  If you just look at their record, you automatically figure they aren't a very good team.  However, a closer look into how they have performed this year paints a completely different story.  

I made them my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Sunday Night against the Packers, and I'm backing them again this week against the Panthers because I still believe they are undervalued as only a 2.5-point favorite against the Panthers.  I still believe this is one of the best teams in the NFL, and the numbers really show that.

Three of New Orleans' four losses this season have come by a combined six points.  That's how closer it is to being a 7-1 team right now instead of 3-4.  Plus, I don't consider road losses to Cleveland (24-26) and Detroit (23-24) by a combined three points to be bad performances.  The Saints really showed what they were capable of last week in their 44-23 beat down of the previously red-hot Packers at home.

New Orleans ranks 5th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 54.9 yards per game on the season.  It has done so behind an offense that ranks 2nd in the league at 445.3 yards per game, which is nearly 30 yards ahead of third place and only seven behind first-place Indianapolis.

The offense has gotten a big boost with a healthy return of Mark Ingram in the backfield recently.  All he did against the Packers was rush 24 times for 172 yards and a score.  Drew Brees completed 27 of 32 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns without a pick as the Saints racked up 495 total yards in the win.

On the other side, Carolina is a much worse team than its 3-4-1 record would indicate.  It ranks 25th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 46.0 yards per game.  The Panthers rank 24th in total offense at 332.5 yards per game, and 21st in total defense at 378.5 yards per game.

This Carolina defense has given up 37 or more points in four of its last six games overall to the likes of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay and Cincinnati.  It has given up an average of 31.2 points per game during this stretch.  You can just imagine how badly it will struggle against this second-ranked New Orleans offense on Thursday.

The Saints have been great at running the football this year, ranking seventh in the league at 133.0 yards per game and second in yards per carry (5.1).  They should have success on the ground against a Carolina defense that ranks 28th against the run (135.2 YPG) and last in yards per rush (5.2).

Sure, these teams split their regular season meetings last year with the Panthers winning 17-13 at home and the Saints winning 31-13 at home.  However, the Saints dominated each game and should have won both.  They outgained the Panthers 365-222 in their four-point road loss, and 373-239 in their 18-point home win.  So, they outgained the Panthers 738-461 in the two meetings combined as the defense led the way in stopping Cam Newton and company.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Saints Thursday.

15* Florida State/Louisville ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -3.5

This is a pretty generous line to back the No. 2 team in the country in the Florida State Seminoles. I know that they haven’t been nearly as dominant as last year, but they’ve also played a tougher schedule up to this point. I believe their few closes wins this season against good teams in Clemson and Notre Dame have kept this spread smaller than it should be.

Keep in mind that Clemson was playing with DeShaun Watson at quarterback while FSU was playing without Jameis Winston when it beat the Tigers in overtime earlier this year. Also, the 31-27 win over Notre Dame is nothing to laugh about as the Fighting Irish are one of the best teams in the country and currently ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll.

Louisville also lost a close one to Clemson by a final of 17-23. However, Watson went down with an injury early in that game, and the Cardinals couldn’t take advantage. Clemson is a much inferior offensive team with Cole Stoudt at quarterback rather than Watson. So, you can’t really even compare those games. The Cardinals haven’t really beaten a great team yet as their six wins have come against Miami, Murray State, FIU, Wake Forest, Syracuse and NC State.

Florida State is putting up 37.9 pints and 442.7 yards per game on the season. Jameis Winston is completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 1,878 yards with 13 touchdowns and six picks on the year. I don’t believe Louisville has the offensive firepower to keep up with the Seminoles in this one. It is averaging 30.9 points and 370.4 yards per game on the season, averaging a mere 5.0 yards per play. It hasn’t face very many good defenses, either, and the ones it did it lost to in Virginia and Clemson.

The Seminoles are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games coming in. Louisville is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games following three straight conference games. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two years. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Florida State Thursday.

20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +10

The Cowboys have been the biggest surprise in the NFL up to this point.  Nobody expected this team to start 6-1.  DeMarco Murray broke the NFL record for consecutive 100-yard rushing games to open the season.  He is running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  As a result, Tony Romo has been much more efficient in the passing game.  The defense has even been better than expected.

With the world well aware of the Cowboys' success this year, oddsmakers have been forced to inflate their line this week against the Redskins.  Asking them to win by 11-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  While they are certainly one of the better teams in the league, there are a few factors that show they aren't as good as their record would indicate.

The offense is dominant, and as a result, the defense has hardly seen the field.  The Cowboys are the third-best team in the league in terms of time of possession.  If the defense were on the field more often, that suspect unit would be giving up a lot more yards and points.  In fact, they haven't been much better on that side of the ball compared to last season, when they ranked last in the league in total defense.

Dallas gave up 6.1 yards per play in 2013 and it is giving up 6.1 yards per play in 2014.  It gave up 7.0 yards per passing attempt last year, and it is giving up 6.8 yards per attempt this year.  It allowed 4.7 yards per carry last year, and it is giving up 4.9 yards per rush in 2014.  It forced 1.75 turnovers per game last season, and it is getting 1.71 turnovers per game this season.

The key to stopping Dallas is making sure it does not keep the football for most of the game.  Washington has the power to do that behind a defense that ranks 12th in the league against the run in giving up 103.3 yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  In fact, a closer look at the numbers shows that Washington is a much better team overall than its 2-5 record would indicate.

The Redskins rank an incredible 3rd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 67.5 yards per game.  They trail only the Colts and Broncos in that category, which shows that they are right up there with two of the top teams in the NFL.  Furthermore, the Redskins rank 7th in the league in total defense (321.9 yards/game) and 5th in total offense (389.4 yards/game).  This team is much better than it is getting credit for as a 10-point underdog to the Cowboys.

I realize Colt McCoy is expected to start this game for Washington, but I'm not too concerned about it because Kirk Cousins was a turnover machine and can't be trusted.  McCoy impressed in leading the Redskins to a 19-17 victory over the Titans last week in a game they should have won by more.  They outgained the Titans by 115 yards in the game.  McCoy finished 11 of 12 passing for 128 yards and a touchdown after replacing Cousins.

Washington has played Dallas extremely tough over the past few seasons.  In fact, it is a sensational 7-1 (88%) ATS against the Cowboys in the last eight meetings in this series.  It has only lost to the Cowboys by more than 3 points once during this stretch.  That was a 16-31 loss at Dallas last year when the Redskins simply gave that game away.  They actually outgained the Cowboys 433-213 for the game, but they turned the ball over twice and gave up an 86-yard punt return for a score.

The underdog is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.  The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Dallas.  The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.  Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four Monday games.  Jason Garrett is 0-6 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 11-23 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -1

The Saints clearly have not gotten off to the start they wanted to this season.  A lot of that has had to do with the scheduling as they have played four road games compared to two home games.  They are 0-4 on the road and 2-0 at home. 

Another reason has to do with the fact that they haven't been able to win close games as three of their losses have come by a combined six points.  The good news is that they are only one game back in the weak NFC South division, so all is not lost yet.  I still believe this team will win the division and be a factor in the playoffs.

Look for the Saints to come out highly motivated for a win Sunday as they host the Green Bay Packers and play inside the friendly confines of the Superdome.  I have no doubt that the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, and that's evident in the statistics. 

They rank 2nd in the league in total offense at 437.0 yards per game, and while their defense has taken a step back this year, they are still outgaining opponents by an average of 63.3 yards per game, which is the fourth-best mark in the league.  The defense has given up an average of 329.0 yards per game the last two weeks and will only get better as the season progresses.

With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home.  They are a combined 10-0 at home over the past two seasons.  Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 17-1-1 ATS at home dating back to 2011-12.  This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the Saints as this short of a home favorite.  We'll take advantage this week.

The home team has won five of the last six meetings between these teams with the only exception being New Orleans' 34-27 win at Lambeau Field back in 2006.  Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.

While the Saints are better than their record, there's no question the Packers aren't as good as their 5-2 record would indicate.  They rank just 25th in the league in total offense at 325.4 yards per game and 19th in total defense at 362.7 yards per game.  They are actually getting outgained by 37.3 yards per game, which is the 10th-worst mark in the NFL.

Green Bay is just 2-2 on the road this season compared to 3-0 at home.  It has really been outplayed on the road this season despite the 2-2 record.  It is only gaining 301.2 yards per game on offense while giving up 399.0 yards per game on defense.

As you can see, it is getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game away from home this year.  It needed a last-second touchdown to beat Miami, and it was outgained by the Bears by 140 total yards in its 38-17 victory.  It also lost to the Seahawks by 20 and the Lions by 12 in its first two road games.

The Packers are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers here because they have won and covered in four consecutive games.  Keep in mind that this stretch of games has featured wins over the Bears, Vikings, Dolphins and Panthers, and none of those teams have better than a .500 record. 

The betting public has been all over the Packers, too.  They'll continue to ride them because they have been good to them, which is why this is only a 1-point spread as the books know the public will be on Green Bay again, so they have over-adjusted the line.  That has provided us with some serious line value here on the Saints.

Payton is 11-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game as the coach of New Orleans.  Payton is 14-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Saints.  The Saints are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 home games overall.  The Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +7

The Cleveland Browns have no business being this heavily favored against any team in the league. I said that last week when I backed the Jaguars as 6-point home underdogs, and they came through and won outright 24-6 over the Browns. I’m saying it again this week. Even though it’s the winless Raiders, the Browns are clearly overvalued here. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much.

One big reason why Cleveland could be in line for a tough stretch is that it recently lost center Alex Mack to a season-ending leg injury. He was the heart and soul of this offense, and even quarterback Brian Hoyer said that you don’t replace a guy like Mack heading into the Jacksonville game. Center is the most underrated position in the NFL because he calls out all of the blocking assignments.

Cleveland had been one of the best rushing teams in football prior to Mack going down with an injury. His loss was felt against the Jaguars as the Browns managed a measly 69 rushing yards on 30 carries for an average of 2.3 yards per attempt. Even Brian Hoyer had an awful game, going just 16-of-41 passing for 215 yards with an interception. The Browns were held to 266 total yards, and head coach Mike Pettine admitted that he contemplated replacing Hoyer with Johnny Manziel against the Jaguars last week.

Cleveland has played in a bunch of close games this year as four of its six games have been decided by a field goal or less. It is going to have a hard time blowing out teams due to a defense that has not been very good at all this year. The Browns are giving up 23.2 points and 394.8 yards per game to rank 29th in the league in total defense.

The Browns rank last in the league against the run, giving up a whopping 155.5 yards per game on the ground.  The Raiders averaged the fewest rushing yards (69.3 RYPG) this season, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they've been playing from behind.  Look for head coach Tony Sparano to be sure that Darren McFadden gets more carries in this one.  He rushed for 89 yards on 14 attempts against San Diego and 48 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown against Arizona the past two weeks.  He just needs more touches and should get them this week.

I’m a realist, and I realize that Oakland is probably the worst team in the league, but I have been impressed with Derek Carr’s development as the season has gone on. He is more than capable of putting up solid numbers against this soft Cleveland defense. He had his best game against the Chargers two weeks ago when he threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns. He and the rest of these Raiders are highly motivated to pick up their first win of the season, and this is one of their best chances yet to do so.

"Nobody is handed the trophy at the end of six weeks," Sparano said. "In my mind, we have 10 games to go right now. I've seen teams get into this tournament with eight wins, with nine wins, whatever the case is.

"That isn't really our concern right now. Our concern is getting one win and winning the next game. That really has to be our focus, because if we look at the picture down the road right now, the parade might pass us by."

"We're building," defensive end Benson Mayowa said. "Every week we come in and we're building; we're getting close. We just have to get a W, and that's what we're going to do."

The Browns are 0-7 ATS versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the past two seasons. Oakland is a very profitable 25-12 ATS in its last 37 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Raiders are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games following a non-conference game. Cleveland is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

Note - I recommend buying the Raiders to +7 if you have the option but would still take them at +6 or better if you don't.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Seahawks -5

I just cannot foresee the defending Super Bowl champs losing three straight games. They were dealt a big distraction last week heading into their showdown with St. Louis as Percy Harvin was traded late in the week to the Jets. It caught most of the Seattle players by surprise as they said so afterwards. Even wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who allegedly had a run-in with Harvin, was caught off guard by it. He said it was certainly a distraction, but also that there was no excuse for the 26-28 loss to the Rams.

St. Louis was aided by an 90-yard punt return for a touchdown, a 75-yard kickoff return, and a fake punt in the fourth quarter as special teams was the difference in the game. The Seahawks actually dominated the box score and should have won. They outgained the Rams by 191 total yards for the game as they racked up 463 yards of offense in their best output of the season on that side of the ball.

The offense has been carrying the load this season in averaging 26.5 points and 357.0 yards per game.  You can bet the defense is going to put this game on their shoulders after giving up an average of 29.0 points per game the past two weeks in losses to the Cowboys and Rams. I still believe this is one of the best stop units in the league, and I fully expect that to be on display against the Panthers, just as it was last year.

Seattle beat Carolina 12-7 on the road last season in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Seahawks outgained the Panthers 370-253 for the game, or by 117 total yards. Russell Wilson went 25 of 33 passing for 320 yards and a touchdown in the win, while the defense limited Cam Newton to 16 of 23 passing for 125 yards and a score.

The Panthers are clearly down this season. They have won just one of their last five games overall while giving up an average of 34.8 points per game in the process. They have allowed 37 or more points in four of their last five games as well. They currently rank 29th in the league in scoring defense (27.9 PPG) and 29th in total defense (388.3 YPG). They clearly miss suspended DE Greg Hardy as well as three of four starters from their secondary who departed this offseason.

Offensively, Cam Newton is simply being asked to do too much.  The Panthers have been decimated by injuries at running back with both DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert out.  Now, the offensive line is a mess.  Rookie guard Trai Turner is out with a sprained knee and ankle, while tackle Byron Bell (elbow) and guard Amini Silatolu (calf) are listed as questionable.

Seattle is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 versus terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game. The Seahawks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Seahawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after giving up more than 30 points in their previous game. Pete Carroll is 8-0 ATS after gaining 7 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 16-4 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game as the coach of the Seahawks.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -13.5

Quietly, the Buckeyes have gone 5-1 against the spread this season. They continue to be a covering machine under Urban Meyer and are currently playing as well as almost anyone in the country. They need to keep packing on style points if they want to make the four-team playoff because the 21-35 home loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2 is hard for the playoff committee to forget.

The Buckeyes have been doing their best in trying to make everyone forget about that Virginia Tech game, though. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight wins by 22-plus points. They beat Kent State (66-0), Cincinnati (50-28) and Rutgers (56-17) at home, while also dominating Maryland (52-24) on the road.  They are outscoring opponents 56-17 during this stretch.

Ohio State’s offense is hitting on all cylinders. It has scored 50-plus in five straight games and is now averaging 46.5 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. Meyer is proving that he is a quarterback genius once again. J.T. Barrett has put up Heisman-like numbers in recent weeks. He is now completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,615 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 383 yards and four scores on the season.

Penn State played well en route to a 4-0 start against a very soft schedule, but it has been exposed in its last two games. It lost at home to Northwestern 6-29 back on September 27th and followed that up with a 13-18 road loss to Michigan. The Nittany Lions were held to just 266 yards against the Wildcats and 214 yards against the Wolverines. They simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Buckeyes in this one.

Ohio State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Penn State. Last year, it stormed out to a 42-7 lead by halftime against the Nittany Lions and cruised to a 63-14 victory. The was the worst loss in Penn State history.  The Buckeyes outgained them 686-357 for the game. They held Christian Hackenberg to 12 of 23 passing for 112 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the win.

The Buckeyes are 53-25-2 ATS in their last 80 conference games. Ohio State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 road games. The Buckeyes are 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. The Nittany Lions are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Alabama -17

The Crimson Tide finally lived up to their potential last week and took care of Texas A&M 59-0. I believe this will be a sign of things to come for them because the fact of the matter is that they have the most talented team in the country. Some of that talent is young, so it took a while for the Crimson Tide to gel. There may be no stopping this team the rest of the way, especially Saturday against an overmatched Tennessee squad.

The Volunteers have played their two worst games against the two best teams they have faced, and I don’t believe they have gone up against a team as strong as Alabama yet. They lost 10-34 at Oklahoma early in the season as 16-point underdogs. Then they were beat down by Ole Miss 3-34 last week as 15-point dogs. They only managed 191 total yards against the Rebels last week and committed four turnovers.

Tennessee clearly lacks the offensive firepower needed to keep up with a team like Alabama. It is only averaging 24.4 points and 325.1 yards per game on the season. Alabama is putting up 36.9 points and 510.7 yards per game, and as I’ve stated before, this may be the best offense they've had in school history.

Also, Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley suffered a shoulder injury late in the Ole Miss game last week and was forced to miss the rest of the game. If he can’t go, or if he’s limited at all, the Volunteers stand no chance of keeping this game close. They have a good defense, but that’s not going to be enough to make up for the lack of offense.

To say this had been a one-sided series in recent years would be a gross understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee, outscoring the Vols by an average of 25 points per game in the process. Six of those victories have come by 20 points or more, and the last four have come by 31-plus. Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Knoxville.

Plays on a road team (ALABAMA) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a loss by 17 or more points are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tennessee is 2-19 ATS in its last 21 home games versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Vols are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +24

The Missouri Tigers come into this game against Vanderbilt way overvalued due to their 42-13 win at Florida last week.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it should have been impossible for them to win by that much.  They only gained 119 yards of total offense and had one offensive touchdown.  They scored five touchdowns on defense and special teams, which is unheard of.

Simply put, Missouri cannot rely on defensive and special teams touchdowns, and they don't have the offense to put away Vanderbilt by 24-plus points this week.  Missouri ranks 118th in the country out of 128 teams in total offense this season, averaging just 323.7 yards per game.  The Tigers will be lucky to score 24 points in this one, let alone win by more than 24.

Vanderbilt opened the season with a pair of blowout losses to Temple and Ole Miss and has been undervalued since.  It has gone a profitable 3-2 ATS since.  The Commodores only lost by 14 to South Carolina as a 22.5-point underdog, 10 to Kentucky as a 17-point road underdog, and 27 to Georgia as a 33-point road dog.

That's the same Georgia team that beat Missouri on the road 34-0 a couple weeks back.  Also, South Carolina should have beat Missouri, but gave up a 20-7 lead in the fourth quarter to lose 20-21.  Indiana also went into Missouri and came away with a 31-27 victory.  This Missouri team simply is not that good, yet it is getting treated like one of the better teams in the country with this 24-point spread.  The Tigers are actually getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game on the season.

Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a no-cover where it won as a favorite.  The Commodores are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games following a win by 6 points or less.  Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in road games after the first month of the seaosn over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Michigan/Michigan State Rivalry Play on Michigan +17

Let's just start out by saying that this is the most Michigan State has ever been favored in this history of this series.  This is a lot of points for the Spartans to be laying in a rivalry game. I know that they are one of the best teams in the Big Ten, but anything can happen in these rivalry games.

This line is a bit inflated due to Michigan State’s blowout win over Indiana last week. The Spartans actually trailed in the second quarter before scoring on six straight possessions to win 56-17.  However, they had an easy path to victory due to a soft Indiana defense, but also an Indiana offense that was missing starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld.

I like Michigan’s mental and physical state coming into this game. This is a chance for the Wolverines to turn their season around with an upset win, and motivation will not be a factor against their rivals in this one. Also, the Wolverines have two full weeks to prepare for Michigan State, which is a huge advantage. They should be in a good frame of mind after showing a lot of guts last time out in beating Penn State 18-13.

This Michigan team is not as bad as its 3-4 record would indicate. It has actually outgained five of its seven opponents on the season, which is more of a sign of a 5-2 team rather than one that is 3-4. The Wolverines are giving up just 21.4 points and 301.0 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Their stop unit is good enough to keep this Michigan State offense in check, which should help it cover the 17-point spread.

While Michigan State also has one of the top defenses in the country, surrendering 292.7 yards per game, this stop unit has looked vulnerable at times. The Spartans allowed 46 points to Oregon and 31 to Purdue. They are giving up 21.6 points per game this season against a relatively soft schedule. Michigan has played a much more difficult slate of games, which makes its defensive numbers that much more impressive.

After winning five of the last six meetings in this series, I could easily see Michigan State overlooking Michigan and looking ahead to its next game against Ohio State.  I actually believe this game means more to the Wolverines, and quarterback Devin Gardner hasn't been shy about it.  "We're not thinking about ruining their season," Gardner said. "This is about us. I want to win this game as bad as I've wanted to win any game."

Even Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook believes this is going to be a close game, because it normally is no matter the circumstances.  "We could be 0-5 going into the game, they could be No. 1 in the country and it's going to be a tight game. You have that with rivalry games," said Cook. "I don't think we overlook them at all, and I don't think they overlook us."

Brady Hoke is 15-2 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in the last game in all games he has coached. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. The Spartans are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Michigan State had been undervalued in this head-to-head rivalry over the past seven seasons. Now, those roles are reversed and Michigan isn’t getting the respect it deserves as a 17-point underdog heading into the 2014 meeting.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +22.5

TCU has been the most underrated team in the country up to this point. Sharp bettors have been backing them relentlessly as their lines every week move in their direction. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up to how good this team has been up to this point, which is why the Horned Frogs are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

While I’ll admit that TCU is one of the best teams in the land, the odds have finally caught up to them this week. They opened as 21-point favorites and have been bet up to 22.5 in most places as the public is all over them after realizing that they have covered every spread thus far. They are simply laying too many points here to Texas Tech, and the value is clearly with the road underdog in this one.

The two blowout losses that the Red Raiders have suffered this season have come against run-heavy teams in Arkansas (28-49) and Kansas State (13-45). They have held their own against the rest of their opponents. They only lost 35-45 to Oklahoma State as 14.5-point road underdogs. They blew a big lead and let West Virginia escape with a 37-34 road win as the Red Raiders were 5.5-point underdogs in that contest.

Texas Tech has the kind of offense that will put up points on TCU and keep it within the number. It is averaging 30.9 points and 488.3 yards per game this season. Davis Webb is having another monster season, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,239 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

TCU hasn’t faced many elite offenses this season aside from Oklahoma and Baylor. Oklahoma put up 33 points and 461 total yards against TCU, including 309 passing. Baylor put up 61 points and 782 total yards against the Horned Frogs, including 510 through the air. Webb should be primed for a big day in this one.

The last three meetings between TCU and Texas Tech have all been decided by 10 points or less. Texas Tech is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with TCU. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Horned Frogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic +28

The betting public is all over Marshall right now due to its 7-0 start and 5-1-1 ATS mark this season.  It has covered the spread in five straight games coming in.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set this line 7-10 points higher than it should be to try and draw even action on both sides knowing that the public is going to be all over Marshall again this week.  I'll take advantage and back the road dog in this one.

Florida Atlantic is a quality team that is fully capable of keeping this game within four touchdowns.  In fact, I believe this one will go right down to the wire.  The Owls suffered blowout losses to both Nebraska and Alabama on the road to open the season, but have been much more competitive since.  They have beaten the likes of Tulsa, UTSA and Western Kentucky, and they only lost by one at Wyoming.

Sure, there is one result that is going to stick in the minds of some people and question Florida Atlantic's talent.  They went on the road and lost 10-38 at Florida International a few weeks back despite being a 6.5-point favorite.  However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Owls actually outgained the Panthers 383-345 for the game.  That yardage differential wouldn't normally lead to a 28-point loss, but the Owls committed four turnovers.  I believe that effort was more of an aberration than anything.

Last year, Florida Atlantic lost 23-24 at home to Marshall as a 10-point underdog in a game it should have won.  It actually outgained the Thundering Herd 400-355 for the game.  The Owls held star quarterback Rakeem Cato to just 18 of 34 passing for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss.  They want revenge from that one-point defeat, and I just cannot foresee them getting blown out by four-plus touchdowns in the rematch a year later.

Florida Atlantic is a sensational 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Owls are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Florida Atlantic is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Jose State +9

I have been very impressed with how well San Jose State has played in its last three games following blowout road losses to both Auburn and Minnesota, who each have just one loss on the season.  I believe the Spartans are fully capable of staying within single-digits of Navy, and they will have a great chance of pulling off the upset Saturday as well.

Sure, they did lose 10-21 to Nevada at home, but a closer look at the box score shows that they dominated that game and should have won.  They outgained the Wolf Pack 446-256 for the game, or by 190 total yards.  They went on to outgain UNLV 542-221 in a 33-10 home win and to outgain Wyoming 471-277 in a 27-20 (OT) road win.

In these three games, they have averaged 486.3 yards per game and have given up 251.3 yards per game, outgaining their opponents by an average of 235 yards per game.  If that's not domination, I don't know what is.  So, they are playing their best football of the season heading into the Navy game and should be getting more respect from oddsmakers.

Navy is just 3-4 on the season and clearly down this year.  It has lost to Ohio State by 17, Rutgers by 7, Western Kentucky by 9 and Air Force by 9.  Its three wins have come against Temple by 7, Texas State by 14 and VMI by 37.  Really, the only Navy blowout this season came against VMI, which was expected because the Midshipmen were 38-point favorites.  The Midshipmen only outgained Texas State by 27 total yards and shouldn't have won by 14.

This will be the fourth meeting between these teams over the last four years.  The first three have all been close with SJSU winning 27-24 at home in 2011, SJSU winning 12-0 on the road in 2012, and Navy winning 58-52 (OT) in 2013.  The Spartans have really dominated the box score in all three games, outgaining the Midshipmen by 121 total yards in 2011, 244 total yards in 2012, and 122 total yards in 2013.  Expect SJSU to hold its own in the box score again in this one and for the game to go right down to the wire.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN JOSE ST) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) are 59-22 (72.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Navy is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three seasons.  SJSU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  SJSU is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 road games overall.  Navy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Roll with San Jose State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina +7

North Carolina finds itself in pretty much the exact same position as last season.  Last year, it bounced back from a four-game losing streak to win six of its final seven games capped by a bowl victory.  The Tar Heels just snapped a four-game slide by rallying past Georgia Tech 48-43 last week.

Perhaps the real turning point came a week earlier when the Tar Heels went into Notre Dame and gave the previously unbeaten Fighting Irish all they wanted and more.  They only lost that game 43-50 as 16.5-point underdogs.  We all saw that Notre Dame probably should have beat defending champion Florida State on the road last week, so that 7-point loss to the Irish was nothing to laugh about.

Obviously the Tar Heels have a terrible defense and are being asked to put up big numbers offensively to stay in games, which is a concern.  The thing is that they are fully capable of winning shootouts, which they showed last week against Georgia Tech.  They are averaging 38.7 points and 452.3 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 1,776 yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions, while also pacing the team with 448 rushing yards and four scores.

Virginia is a team that I had pegged as underrated coming into the year, and that has proven to be the case.  The Cavaliers have opened 4-3 and will push for a bowl game this year.  However, their four wins have come against the likes of Richmond, Louisville, Kent State and Pittsburgh all at home.  Plus, those two wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh came by a combined 7 points.

I believe the Cavaliers are now overvalued heading into this game, and asking them to win by more than a touchdown over the Tar Heels to beat us is asking too much.  They don't exactly have the most explosive offense.  If you take out the Richmond and Kent State wins, they have only topped 24 points one time in their other five games.

This has been a one-sided series in recent years.  North Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Virginia with wins by 31, 24, 11 and 34 points, respectively.  The Tar Heels are outscoring the Cavaliers by an average of 25 points per game in the last four meetings.  The beat the Cavaliers 45-14 at home last year as 11.5-point favorites.

Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. incredible offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after having covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Again, the Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing UNC.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +20

This is a very big number that the books are asking the Cornhuskers to cover. While I’m not going to say Rutgers is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, I certainly believe they are better than they get credit for. They have shown that by going 5-2 already this season despite having their win total set at roughly 3.5 games coming into the year. This team is no joke, but they are getting treated like it with this line.

The reason this line is so big is because Nebraska blew out Northwestern by 21 points on the road last week, while Ohio State blew out Rutgers by 39 points at home. Those results have created some serious line value here on the Scarlet Knights. Northwestern actually held a 17-14 lead at halftime over Nebraska before laying down after intermission. Ohio State is rolling everyone right now, so that 39-point win isn’t that much of a surprise.

Rutgers had been 5-1 prior to the Ohio State game with its only loss coming to Penn State by a field goal. It had beaten the likes of Washington State, Navy and Michigan. What I like about this Rutgers team is that it has a very good defensive line that won’t be overmatched by Nebraska’s offensive line. The Huskers have taken advantage of a schedule that has featured several overmatched defensive lines outside of Michigan State. That’s why Ameer Abdullah is having such a big season to this point.

Rutgers has a better offense than it is getting credit for. It is putting up 27.7 points and 415.0 yards per game against opponents that are only giving up 26.6 points and 368 yards per game. Quarterback Gary Nova is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,793 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.

After covering five straight games coming in, the Huskers are simply overvalued here. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Rutgers is 16-5 ATS-1 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cornhuskers are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Rutgers Saturday.

20* BYU/Boise State Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boise State -7

I have been very impressed with the Boise State Broncos (5-2) in their first season under Bryan Harsin. One of their two losses this season came against Ole Miss, which is a national title contender. That was a 7-6 game entering the fourth quarter as the Broncos proved they could play with one of the best teams in the country.

Sure, they lost 14-28 to Air Force, but the Falcons are improved this season. Also, there’s no way the Broncos should have lost that game because they outgained them by 132 yards for the game.  They also committed a ridiculous seven turnovers to give the game away.

Statistically, Boise State is one of the most dominant teams in the country. It has only been outgained in one game this season, and that was by just 59 yards against Ole Miss. It has outgained its other six opponents. It has outgained five of those teams by 108 yards or more. On the season, it is outgaining the opposition by an average of 119.1 yards per game.

Boise State is averaging 485.0 yards per game of offense against teams that are giving up 402 yards per game on defense. The Broncos are limiting teams to 365.9 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 405 yards per game of total offense. To compare, BYU is giving up 388 yards per game against opponents that are only averaging 355 yards per game on offense.

Since losing star quarterback Taysom Hill midway through the Utah State game on October 3rd, the Cougars haven’t been the same team. They went on to lose to Utah State 20-35 at home, to UCF 24-31 on the road, and to Nevada 35-42 at home. I would certainly argue that Boise State is better than all three of those teams, which is why it should have no problem winning this game by more than a touchdown to cover the spread Friday night.

Hill was the one player that BYU could not replace. He made them an outside contender for the four-team playoff in all honesty as they had a great shot to run the table with him at the helm. Backup Christian Stewart is only completing 55.0 percent of his passes compared to Hill’s 67.2 percent. Stewart only has 110 rushing yards while averaging 3.1 per carry, compared to Hill’s 463 rushing yards and 5.4 per carry.

As losses in each of their last three games have shown, the Cougars are only an average team without Hill running the show.  While the offense clearly hasn't been as good without Hill, the BYU defense may be just as big of a concern.  The Cougars have allowed 31 or more points in four straight games.  It's not like they have faced elite offenses, either.  

I wouldn't consider Virginia, Utah State, UCF or Nevada elite.  However, I would consider Boise State's offense elite as it has scored 34 or more points on five different occasions this year.  Another thing to consider here is that BYU has turned the ball over two or more times in all but one game this season.  They are very careless with the football with 16 turnovers this season, which is another reason this game could get out of hand in a hurry.

Boise State is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game. BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after playing its last game at home. Boise State is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. The Broncos are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Boise State Friday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Denver -8.5

I wrote last week about how San Diego had faced the easiest schedule in the league, which was a big reason for its 5-1 start to the season. I really do not believe this team is as good as its record would indicate, and that it will be overmatched against the best team in the NFL in the Broncos in this one.

Perhaps the biggest reason I’m taking Denver Thursday is that San Diego is really banged up right now. It was already without a couple starters on defense in Melvin Ingram and Manti Te’o. Then, last week the Chargers were missing Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder), their top two cornerbacks.

Flowers, who has played at a Pro Bowl level this season, has been ruled out due to his concussion suffered against Kansas City on Sunday.  Verrett, who is in the early discussion for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, is listed as questionable.  As of Wednesday, a source close to the situation viewed Verrett as a longshot to play due to his shoulder injury.  The Chargers will have to turn to their two starters from last year in Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright, who were two of the least effective corners in the league.

That’s bad news for San Diego, which will be up against the record-setting Peyton Manning and company. The Broncos are averaging 31.5 points per game, 299 passing yards per game, and 8.5 yards per attempt. Manning is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,848 yards with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions on the season. He has put up those numbers against a very tough schedule and some of the best defenses in the league in the likes of the Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Jets & 49ers.

San Diego has put up good numbers defensively this year, but that has a lot more to do with the schedule than actually being a good defense. Sure, it opened with Arizona and Seattle, but then played Buffalo, Jacksonville, New York (Jets), Oakland and Kansas City the next five weeks. I wouldn’t consider any of those teams to be elite offensively. This defense is likely to be in for a rude awakening this week, especially with all of the injuries.

Denver’s defense did not perform all that great in the first three weeks of the season. However, this revamped stop unit has really picked it up of late. The Broncos have won their last three games all by 14 points or more largely due to the defense. They allowed 20 points and 215 total yards in a 21-point win over Arizona, 17 points and 204 total yards in a 14-point win over the Jets, and 17 points and 310 total yards in a 25-point win over the 49ers.

The Broncos rank 6th in the league in total defense, giving up just 316.8 yards per game.  They also rank 4th in total offense at 394.0 yards per game.  That puts them at 2nd in the league in yardage differential as they are outgaining teams by a whopping 77.2 yards per game.  With the schedule they have faced, this is easily the best team in the NFL.

Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. The Broncos are 49-28 ATS in their last 77 home games against a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Broncos Thursday.

25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +3

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Virginia Tech as an underdog in Blacksburg. Frank Beamer has gone 133-37 at home in his 28 seasons with the program. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Hokies one of the best home-field advantages in the nation. I don’t believe that home stadium is getting enough credit here with the Hokies listed as the underdogs.

Virginia Tech is a much better team than its 4-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses this year have come by a touchdown or less, while all four of its wins have come by 14 points or more. That includes perhaps the most impressive win of the season in all of college football. The Hokies went into Ohio State and came away with a 35-21 victory as 10-point underdogs back on September 6th.

Miami is every bit as bad as its 4-3 record would indicate. It is 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this season, losing all three road games by double-digits to Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28). The Hurricanes have no business being the favorite in this contest when you look at their home/away discrepancy. Al Golden is just 18-33 on the road as a head coach, including 8-11 at Miami.

Brad Kaaya is the future of Miami at quarterback.  He is a very talented player, but has done most of his damage at home this year.  Kaaya has thrown 11 touchdowns against three interceptions at home, compared to five TDs and six picks on the road.  Also, wide receiver Phillip Dorsett has scored all six of his touchdowns at home.

Virginia Tech has dominated this series with Miami in recent years, going 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. It has won eight of the last 11 meetings, including three straight at home by an average of 19 points. Last year, the Hokies won 42-24 at Miami as 4.5-point underdogs. They dominated that game from start to finish, outgaining the Hurricanes 550-352 for the game. I look for this VA Tech defense to shut them down again.

The Hokies have one of the best stop units in the country. They are allowing just 20.0 points and 326.0 yards per game to rank 20th in total defense. What is most impressive about that is the fact that the Hokies’ seven opponents played so far are averaging 33.1 points and 435 yards per game on offense, so they are holding them 13.1 points and 109 yards per game below their season averages.

Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Virginia Tech is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 Thursday games.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* UConn/East Carolina ESPNU Thursday No-Brainer on Connecticut +28

East Carolina is clearly overvalued right now after its impressive start to the season. It has beaten the likes of Virginia Tech and North Carolina, while only losing to South Carolina by 10. It covered the spread in each of its first four games, and that was the point it started to become overvalued.

The Pirates failed to cover the spread the following week as 38-point favorites in a 21-point home win over SMU. As you probably know, SMU may be the worst team in the entire country. Then, last time out, they only won by 11 at South Florida as 16.5-point favorites. Now the books are asking the Pirates to win by four-plus touchdowns over the Huskies to beat us, and that’s simply asking too much.

Connecticut has played some very good teams, and it has yet to lose a game by four-plus touchdowns. It lost by 25 to BYU in the opener back when the Cougars had Taysom Hill and were rolling everyone. It also only lost to Boise State by 17 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Huskies were only outgained by the Broncos 290-292 for the game.

In fact, the Huskies have only been outgained by more than 85 yards in two of their six games this season.  They have not been outgained by more than 158 yards in any game, and that effort came in the 25-point loss to BYU in the opener.  To win this game by more than four touchdowns, the Pirates are likely going to have to outgain the Huskies by 200-plus yards, and I just don't see that happening.

What gives the Huskies a chance to keep this game close is a defense that has played very well this season. Indeed, the Huskies rank 17th in the country in total defense, giving up just 325.0 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider their six opponents thus far average 379 yards per game offensively, so they are holding them 54 yards per game below their season average.

East Carolina, meanwhile, has not been that great defensively. It is giving up 23.8 points and 363.8 yards per game against opponents that only average 22.9 points and 338 yards per game on offense this season. Admittedly, the Huskies have a poor offense this year, but they should be able to muster up enough points to stay within this 28-point spread. I also wouldn’t be surprised if ECU fails to top 28 points in this one, which is something they have failed to do in three of six games this year.

Connecticut is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 9 points or fewer in their last game. Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. East Carolina is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a win. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games. ECU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Take Connecticut Thursday.

20* Arkansas State/UL-Lafayette No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns (3-3) played a gauntlet of a schedule in the early going and did not look good. Their blowout road losses to both Ole Miss and Boise State were not fun to watch for fans of this program. However, they have responded with two straight victories since. After a lackluster performance in a 34-31 win over Georgia State, they put together their most complete performance of the season last week.

Lafayette rolled to a 34-10 road win at Texas State to improve to 2-0 within the conference. It racked up 528 total yards of offense while limiting Texas State to just 270 total yards. Terrance Broadway, who is probably the best player in the conference, threw for 225 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 113 yards in the win.

I simply believe that tough early-season schedule will have Lafayette battle-tested hitting on all cylinders in the Sun Belt. They were the favorites to win this conference coming into the season, and I see no reason why that should change now after their 2-0 start. It’s very surprising to see them as home underdogs here to Arkansas State, which is a solid team, but lacks the talent that Lafayette has to offer.

Last year, Lafayette rolled to a 23-7 win at Arkansas State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Rajin’ Cajuns racked up 470 yards of offense while limiting the Red Wolves to just 168, outgaining them by a ridiculous 302 total yards. Broadway threw for 205 yards, while the team rushed for 265 yards in the win. That helped the Rajin’ Cajuns control the ball for over 42 minutes.

That result last year is important because of the players these two teams have coming back.  Lafayette returned 17 starters this season, while Arkansas State brought back just 12 starters.  These teams tied for the Sun Belt Title last year, but there's no question that the Rajin' Cajuns are the better team in 2014 with what they returned.  They are undervalued right now due to the slow start to the year outside of the conference.

Arkansas State is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Red Wolves are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in their previous game. Arkansas State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its previous game. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette has won 8 of its last 9 home meetings with Arkansas State.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Tuesday.

Note - I recommend buying Lafayette to +3 if you have the option but still would take them at +2.5.

20* Texans/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +3

While these teams share identical 3-3 records this season, I have been much more impressed with the Texans and feel like they are the stronger team in 2014. They did lose the last two weeks, but even in the losses they proved they could play with two of the best teams in the league. Dallas needed overtime to beat the Texans 20-17. Indianapolis needed a late stop defensively to preserve its 33-28 win.  Dallas is 6-1, while Indy is 5-2 this season.

Pittsburgh’s three wins have come against Cleveland, Carolina and Jacksonville. It only beat the Browns and Jaguars by a combined 11 points, so those wins weren’t that impressive. It’s the losses that really show how down the Steelers are this year. They lost to the Ravens by 20 and the Browns by 21. They also fell at home to the Buccaneers 24-27. The Bucs and Jaguars were a combined 1-18 in their last 19 games overall heading into this week, and the Steelers only outscored those two awful teams 41-36.

The Steelers have given up 157-plus rushing yards in three different games this season. That’s bad news for their defense because they will be up against one of the better rushing attacks in the league. The Texans are averaging 128 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this year. Arian Foster is showing that he is still one of the elite backs in the NFL. He has rushed for 513 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Foster even missed one game due to injury, which was the only poor performance by the Texans this season in a 17-30 loss to the Giants.

I know their last meeting was a few years ago, but the Texans did beat the Steelers 17-10 at home. That was a much better Pittsburgh defense than the one it is putting on the field in 2014. Foster had a huge day on the ground in that game, rushing for 155 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries. The Texans rushed for 180 as a team. Their defense also limited the Steelers to just 296 total yards. Ben Roethlisberger went 16 of 30 passing for 206 yards with a pick.

Houston's J.J. Watt is an a absolute beast.  He leads the NFL with 20 hits on quarterbacks this season, and he has also scored three touchdowns with two on defense and one on offense.  Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 17 times entering Week 7 for the second-highest total in the NFL.  Look for Watt and company to get after him and to force some turnovers in this one.  It’s also worth noting that the Texans will have three more days than the Steelers to prepare for this game after playing the Colts last Thursday.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) – after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points are 64-30 (68.1%) ATS since 1983. Houston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 400 or more total yards per game in its last three games. The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Monday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs +4

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) are looking at this game like a must-win because they cannot afford to fall any further behind in the AFC West standings with both the Broncos and Chargers only having one loss apiece. They will certainly be putting their best foot forward this week off their bye last week. The Chargers could actually afford a loss at this point and won’t be playing with the same sense of urgency as the Chiefs in this one because of their fast start to the season.

I really like what I’ve seen from this Kansas City team ever since its season-opening loss to the Titans. It went into Denver and gave Peyton Manning and company a run for their money in a 17-24 loss as a 13-point underdog. It went into Miami and came away with a 34-15 win as a 6-point dog. It thumped New England 41-14 on Monday Night Football as a 3-point dog. Then, it had its chances against San Francisco, but ultimately fell 17-22 on the road as a 4-point dog.

So, as you can see, the Chiefs have played three of their last four games on the road with all four coming against some of the premier teams in the league, especially the Broncos, Patriots and 49ers. They have hung right with or dominated each of their last four opponents. They are certainly capable of going into San Diego and coming away with a win in this one as well.

The Chargers are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-1 start to the season, which has also included a 5-1 ATS record. I successfully faded the Chargers last week by backing the Raiders as 7.5-point home underdogs in a 31-28 victory for San Diego. The Raiders were in that game the whole way, and just like the Chiefs, they were coming off their bye week. That makes this a very tough spot for San Diego as it has to face two straight teams coming off their bye weeks.

Not only does that make this a tough spot for the Chargers with the Chiefs coming off the bye, that may not even be the biggest situation factor here.  Perhaps the bigger factor is the fact that San Diego plays Denver on Thursday.  Even though this game against the Chiefs is a division game, I have no doubt the Chargers will be looking ahead to that game against the Broncos, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They simply will not be able to bring the kind of focus and effort to the field this week it takes to put away the pesky Chiefs.

The Chargers aren't as good as they're perceived to be this year, either.  They have faced the easiest schedule in the league thus far as their six opponents up to this point have a combined 33% winning percentage on the season.  Also, they have been lucky as they're the only team in the NFL to have not lost a fumble.  They have fumbled six times and recovered all six.

The Chiefs have only failed to cover the spread in one of their last 12 road games.  Coach Andy Reid has won 63% of his road games for his career.  Also, Reid has won 16 of his last 18 games as a head coach off a bye, including playoffs.

San Diego did win both meetings with Kansas City last year, but both were by exactly a field goal, and there’s a good chance this one is decided by a field goal as well. Also, the Chiefs even rested their starters in Week 17 last year, yet nearly beat the Chargers as 15.5-point underdogs. San Diego needed overtime to escape with a 27-24 home victory and punch its ticket into the playoffs. You can bet the Chiefs will be out for revenge in this one after getting swept in the season series by a combined six points last year.

Plays against any team (SAN DIEGO) – after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 140-85 (62.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Kansas City is 42-25 ATS in its last 67 road games following one or more consecutive losses. The Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -3

After opening the season with losses against two of the best teams in the league in Denver and Philadelphia by a combined 10 points, there has been nobody playing better football than the Colts over the last four weeks. They have outscored the Jaguars, Titans, Ravens and Texans a combined 138-75 while going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

That doesn’t even tell the entire story. Not only are the Colts winning, they are absolutely dominating the box score. They ougained the Jaguars by 185 yards, the Titans by 237 yards, the Ravens by 145 yards, and the Texans by 124 yards. So, as you can see, they have outgained their last four opponents by a total of 691 yards. They even outgained the Broncos by 47 yards in their Week 1 loss on the road.

I have lost more money going against the Colts over the past few seasons than any other team in the NFL.  That's because they were always winning close games despite getting outgained on a regular basis.  Now, I know the Colts are the real deal because they rank 1st in the league in yardage differential.  They are outgaining opponents by 103.5 yards per game on the season, which is nearly 26 yards per game more than second place.

Andrew Luck is playing better than any quarterback in the league this season. He is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,987 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 93 yards and two scores. His ability to move within the pocket with his underrated feet make him very tough for opposing pass rushers to bring down. He’s so great at extending plays and making them when needed, but he’s also tremendous within the pocket.

Cincinnati was one of the most overrated teams in the league after its 3-0 start to the season. That showed in a 17-43 loss in New England in Week 5. It also showed last week as the Bengals only managed to tie the Panthers 37-37 at home despite being a 7-point favorite.  The Bengals had won 11 straight regular season home games prior to that tie, so they have clearly done most of their damage over the last few years at home and not on the road.

As you can see, their defense has given up a combined 80 points over the past two weeks.  They rank 28th in the league in total defense this year, giving up 398.8 yards per game on the season.  That's not good news for the Bengals because they will be up against a Colts offense that ranks 1st in the league in total offense at 444.0 yards per game.

Also, Cincinnati's offense was without star receiver A.J. Green last week, and he is doubtful to play with a toe injury this week. While he isn’t the best receiver in the league, he is more important to this Cincinnati offense than any other receiver in the NFL in my opinion. He just requires so much attention for opposing defenses.  Green has averaged 104.7 receiving yards per game in the last three full games he's played.  That kind of production is simply irreplaceable.

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The Colts are 6-0 straight up in their last six home meetings with the Bengals.  It's also important to note that the Colts will have three extra days of rest and preparation than the Bengals because they played last Thursday against Houston.  Meanwhile, the Bengals could be a little more fatigued than normal because they played a full five quarters last week in their overtime game against Carolina.

Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record over the last three years. The Colts are 12-1 ATS in a home games where the total is 45.5 or more over the last three seasons.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing Indianapolis.  Take the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

It’s unfathomable that the Cleveland Browns are actually this big of a road favorite against anyone in the NFL. Sure, they are a vastly improved team this season with their 3-2 start, but they are getting too much respect here against the Jaguars. Asking them to go on the road and win by a touchdown or more to beat us is simply asking too much.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Browns, who are coming off their 31-10 beat down of the Steelers last week. That win had to feel good considering they 'improved' to 4-25 in their last 29 meetings with the Steelers in that AFC North rivalry. It will be hard for a team like the Browns to go on the road and put forth the kind of effort they did against the Steelers now that they’ll be facing a winless team.  This is clearly a tough spot for them because they are not used to success.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are very hungry for that first victory. They have been inching closer to it each of the last three weeks, losing by 19 on the road to the Chargers, by 8 at home to the Steelers, and by 2 last week on the road against the Titans. The reason they have been more competitive is the insertion of Blake Bortles as the starting quarterback.

Jacksonville played by far its best game of the season last week at Tennessee and arguably should have won. It outgained the Titans by 89 total yards for the game as the offense amassed a season-high 379 yards, and the defense limited the Titans to season-low 290 yards.

Bortles went 32-of-46 passing for 336 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 38 yards on five carries in his best game yet as a pro.  Cecil Shorts is back healthy and had a career-high 10 catches for 103 yards.  Bortles has completed 67.8 percent of his passes this year, which is the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

Four of Cleveland’s five games this season have been decided by 3 points or less, and there’s a good chance this one will go right down to the wire as well. The Browns were fortunate to be able to come back from a 28-3 deficit to beat Tennessee 29-28 in their last road game. This is a team that has been dreadful on the road over the past decade and rarely wins away from home.

The Browns have been winning in spite of their defense, which has been atrocious this season.  They are giving up 23.0 points and 406.6 yards per game to rank 29th in the league in total defense.  Bortles figures to have another big day through the air in this one as the Jaguars will likely put forth their best offensive output of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.

The Cleveland offense has been surprisingly good, especially running the football.  It is averaging 146 yards per game on the ground.  However, center Alex Mack, the team's best and most important lineman, went down with a likely season-ending broken leg.  The center is the most underrated position in all of football.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer said it best when referring to Mack. "You just don't replace that guy," Hoyer said.  Plus, the Jacksonville run defense has been trending in the right direction.  The Jaguars have only allowed an average of only 74.3 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry over their last three games.  The Browns haven't proven they can really light it up through the air this season to take advantage of Jacksonville's biggest weakness, which is its secondary.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) – a horrible offensive team (scoring less than 14 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford -3.5

Stanford (4-2) is a couple of 3-point losses to both USC and Notre Dame away from being undefeated on the season. Because this is just a 4-2 team right now, I believe it is undervalued at this point in the season. It should be a much heavier favorite on the road against Arizona State this week. Defense wins games, and there’s no question that the Cardinal have the superior stop unit in this one.

The Cardinal are limiting opponents to just 10.0 points and 238.0 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total defense. They held a high-powered Washington State offense to just 266 yards of total offense last week. They held USC to 291 total yards and should have won that game. They also limited Washington to 179 total yards and Notre Dame to 370 yards.

The Sun Devils only brought two starters back on defense this year, and the inexperience has shown. They are giving up 31.4 points and 452.6 yards per game to rank 102nd in the country in total defense. They have given up over 200 yards rushing in four consecutive games. They were even outgained by Colorado on the road 426-545 for the game and should have lost, but found a way to win 38-24.

The fact of the matter is that Arizona State simply is not that good this season. It is getting respect because of its fluke win at USC in which it needed a late touchdown, an onside kick, and a hail mary on the final play of the game to win. The more telling result about how bad this team really is was the 27-62 home loss to UCLA a few weeks back. Look for Stanford to put a similar beat down on the Sun Devils, just as they have done in recent meetings.

Indeed, Stanford is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Arizona State. Last year, the Cardinal won 42-28 at home during the regular season in what was a 39-7 game entering the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils got some garbage points late to make the final score seem closer than it would appear. Then, in the Pac-12 Championship, the Cardinal rolled to a 38-14 victory while outgaining ASU 517-311 for the game.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (STANFORD) – off 3 or more consecutive unders, good team – outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Stanford is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. The Cardinal are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Stanford is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 conference games. The Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* Notre Dame/Florida State ABC ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame +10

The Florida State Seminoles (6-0) have been overvalued all season due to winning the national championship last year. That couldn’t be more evident when you look at how they have done against the spread. They only won by 6 over Oklahoma State as an 18.5-point favorite, by 25 over The Citadel as a 56.5-point favorite, by 6 over Clemson as a 10-point favorite, by 15 over NC State as a 16.5-point favorite, and by 18 over Syracuse as an 23.5-point favorite. Their only cover came against Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate.

Notre Dame (6-) has been very impressive this season outside of last week’s win over North Carolina, which was an obvious letdown and lookahead situation. The Irish were coming off a huge win over Stanford the previous week, and they were clearly looking ahead to this game against Florida State. So, I’m willing to throw out that performance because it wasn’t a good spot for them mentally. I really like what I’ve seen from this team in their wins over Stanford (17-14), Rice (48-17) and Michigan (31-0).

I also like the performance the Irish put up against Syracuse (31-15), which gives them a common opponent with the Seminoles, who beat the Orange 38-20. The Irish outgained the Orange 523-429 for the game, but the score was closer than it should have been because Notre Dame committed five turnovers. The Seminoles outgained the Orange 482-412 in their 18-point win. That effort shows that there is very little difference between these teams, and that the 10-point spread has been inflated.

Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule this season, which makes it even more impressive that it has nearly identical statistics to Florida State on the year. The Irish are averaging 34.5 points and 444.3 yards per game on the season, and giving up 17.2 points and 348.3 yards per game. They are outscoring opponents by 17.3 points per game and outgaining them by 96 yards per game. Florida State is outscoring opponents by 18.3 points per game and outgaining them by 104.2 yards per game.

Everett Golson is now 16-1 as a starter at Notre Dame.  The only loss was against Alabama in the 2012-13 BCS Championship Game.  I like his moxy and his ability to just get it done.  He served a suspension in 2013 and was able to work on his craft.  He has been a better player this year as a result.  He is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 209 yards and four scores in 2014.

Florida State, on the other hand, is dealing with the Jameis Winston situation.  He signed a bunch of autographs and the NCAA is looking into whether or not he was paid for them.  While Winston is expected to play this week, this is a huge distraction for the team and one that will work against them heading into this game against Notre Dame.  It takes some of the focus away from the game and there's no way that can be a good thing for the Seminoles, who are fortunate to still be undefeated this year.

The Irish are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. Notre Dame is 25-7 ATS in its last 32 October road games. Brian Kelly is 26-12 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Kelly is 18-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better in all games he has coached. The Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +7

The Nebraska-Northwestern series has been one of the most exciting in all of college football since the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011. All three games have been decided by a total of seven points, with the Huskers winning two. Last year, the Huskers won 27-24 thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. You can bet the Wildcats have had this game circled and will be looking for revenge in 2014.

In 2012, Nebraska rallied from 12 down in the final period to match the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in school history for a 29-28 win in Evanston. In their first meeting in 2011, Northwestern went into Lincoln as a 17-point underdog and came away with a 28-25 victory. There is a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well, meaning there is clearly value with the touchdown underdog here.

Northwestern (3-3) did not look good in the early going this season with home losses to both California and Northern Illinois. However, this has been a completely different team since. A 29-6 road win at Penn State followed by a 20-14 home win over Wisconsin proved that this team is for real. Then, last week, the Wildcats outplayed Minnesota on the road but lost 17-24. They outgained the Gophers 393-274 for the game and should have won.

Nebraska (5-1) could not have faced an easier schedule in its first five games of the season with four at home and just one on the road at Fresno State. We got a glimpse of how bad the Huskers are this year when they trailed Michigan State 27-3 entering the fourth quarter last time out. Sure, they only lost 22-27, but they got 19 garbage points in the fourth quarter to make the game appear closer than it really was.  Now they are getting too much respect because it looks like they played the Spartans close when they really did not.

This Wildcats defense is vastly improved from a year ago.  They are only giving up 17.5 points, 358.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season against teams that are averaging 26.6 points, 404 yards and 5.6 per play.  They limited Penn State to 266 total yards and Minnesota to 274 total yards.  They also held Wisconsin to 14 points, which is no small feat.

Northwestern is 43-26 ATS in its last 69 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bo Pelini is 0-7 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Nebraska.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +17

The Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) are extremely close to being 5-1 on the season. They have three blowout wins over Utah State, Arkansas State and Chattanooga. Their only blowout loss came at Oklahoma by a final of 10-34, but even that game was closer than the final score would indicate. Their 32-35 loss at Georgia and their 9-10 loss to Florida show that this team is vastly improved from last season and capable of beating any team in the SEC on their best day.

I really do believe the Volunteers have a chance to pull the upset here, let alone stay within 17 points. That’s because Ole Miss is in a very tough spot. It is getting all kinds of recognition nationally with a No. 3 ranking off wins over Alabama and Texas A&M. This is the definition of a trap game, because the Rebels have LSU and Auburn on deck over the next two weeks. I don’t expect them to come with their best effort against the Volunteers here.

They catch a Tennessee team that is desperate for a conference victory after losing its first two SEC games by a combined four points against quality competition. Butch Jones already has his players believing that they can beat anyone, and an upset like this would only affirm that belief. This is clearly Jones’ best team yet with the job he has been able to do in recruiting by going toe-for-toe with the big boys the last two years.

Sure, Ole Miss’ 35-20 win at Texas A&M last week appears impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was very fortunate to come away with a win, let alone a 15-point triumph. Indeed, the Aggies actually outgained the Rebels 455-338 for the game, but they committed three turnovers to essentially give it away. Only amassing 338 yards against a poor Texas A&M defense is a very bad result for this Ole Miss offense.

The Volunteers have a real shot of limiting this Ole Miss offense, which will help them stay within the 17-point spread. They are only giving up 19.2 points and 316.3 yards per game on the season to rank 16th in the country in total defense. That is even more impressive when you consider the six opponents that they have faced are averaging 30.9 points and 391 yards per game on the year, so they are holding them to roughly 12 points and 75 yards below their season averages.

Tennessee is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Ole Miss dating back to 1984. Plays on a road team (TENNESSEE) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games are 186-109 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Volunteers are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 October road games.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +10

I have been one of the biggest TCU (4-1) supporters coming into the season and early into the 2014 campaign. I predicted that they’d win the Big 12, and they have not disappointed up to this point. They beat Oklahoma and then had a 21-point lead against Baylor last week, only to give it up in the fourth quarter and lose by a final of 58-61. They covered in that contest to improve to a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their five games in 2014.

They were undervalued up until this point and I capitalized by backing them each of the last two weeks. However, I’m going the other way this week simply because this is a bad spot for TCU, and now it is finally getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Horned Frogs should not be favored by double-digits in this matchup against Oklahoma State (5-1).

The Frogs are in a huge hangover spot here from that loss to Baylor, and I look for them to come out very flat. It’s simply going to be too tough to get up emotionally for the Cowboys after playing two juggernauts like Oklahoma and Baylor in back-to-back weeks. They will struggle to win the game, let alone win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to cover this lofty spread.

The Cowboys come in undervalued this week after only beating Kansas 27-20 on the road last week as an 18-point favorite. They haven’t been world beaters this season, but there’s no question the Cowboys are better than they were perceived to be coming into the year. Their only loss came to defending national champion Florida State by a final of 31-37 as 18.5-point underdogs. That effort alone showed that they are capable of playing with almost anyone in the country.

Oklahoma State has dominated TCU in its two meetings as Big 12 opponents. It won 36-14 at home in 2012 as a 7-point favorite while racking up 471 yards of total offense. It also won 24-10 at home last year as a 6-point favorite while putting up 415 yards of offense. The Cowboys won by 14 despite committing four turnovers because they held TCU to just 325 yards and forced four turnovers themselves.

The Cowboys have scored 20 or more points in 58 consecutive games dating back to the start of the 2010 season.  That's the longest active streak in the country and the second-longest in FBS history (USC, 2002-06).  It's also worth noting that TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin underwent surgery this week to repair a wrist injury.  Sure, he's probable to play, but a hurt wrist is not something you want your starting quarterback dealing with on the football field.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS since 1992. This trend just shows that it’s tough for even good teams to bounce back from a tough loss on the road. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Baylor/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on Baylor -7.5

I faded Baylor (6-0) with success last week in a rare ATS loss for the Bears. They beat TCU but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. Off that rare loss against the spread, I believe the Bears are now undervalued in this one as only 7.5-point favorites. This is a team that went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. They have opened with a 4-1-1 ATS mark in 2014 to continue crushing the spread on a regular basis.

TCU is a much better team than it gets credit for, so that win over the Horned Frogs was nothing to frown about. The Bears are still the best team in the Big 12, and I would say that TCU is the second-best team. Baylor just scores at will and cannot be stopped. Putting up 61 points on a very good TCU defense is no small accomplishment. The Bears arguably should have won by more because they outgained TCU 782-485 for the game.

This Baylor offense tops the country in scoring (52.7) and yards per game (622.5) this season. Even after a poor defensive performance last week, the Bears are only giving up 20.0 points and 303.5 yards per game. There’s no question they have a better defense than WVU, which is giving up 27.2 points and 393.0 yards per game. I look for the difference in this game to be the Bears getting a few more stops than the Mountaineers to pick up the win and cover.

I just haven’t been impressed with WVU over the last few weeks. They lost to Oklahoma 33-45 at home and gave up 508 total yards in defeat. They also needed a big comeback to beat a terrible Texas Tech team 37-34 while giving up 565 total yards. If that’s the kind of effort their defense is going to give against those two teams, you can just imagine what this Baylor offense is going to do against that WVU defense.

Last year, Baylor beat West Virginia 73-42 in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bears outgained the Mountaineers 875-399 for the game, more than doubling their yardage output. Bryce Petty left this game early because of the blowout after throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears rushed for a ridiculous 479 yards while averaging 8.0 per carry in the win.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS versus good rushing defenses that give up 120 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Bears.  Take Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +14

The Purdue Boilermakers (3-4) have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They have already tripled their win total from a year ago and have even been impressive in some of their losses.  Their most impressive performance was a 38-27 win at Illinois to pick up their first conference victory since 2012.

However, I was even impressed with how Purdue hung around against teams like Notre Dame, Iowa and Michigan State, all of which are better teams than Minnesota.  They only lost 14-30 to Notre Dame as 30-point underdogs, 10-24 to Iowa after blowing a 10-0 lead, and 31-45 to Michigan State last week as 21.5-point underdogs.  They even racked up 340 total yards against a very good Spartan defense.

Minnesota (5-1) is overvalued right now due to its record this season.  It has played a very soft schedule thus far, which is the biggest reason for the record.  The 7-30 road loss to TCU is the exception, and it was the most telling performance about this team. 

Sure, the Gophers won 30-14 at Michigan, but everyone is beating the Wolverines.  The Gophers also picked up a nice 24-17 win over Northwestern last week, but a closer look at the box score shows they should have lost that game.  They only gained 274 yards of total offense and gave up 393 yards, getting outgained by the Wildcats by 119 yards for the game.

I have really liked what I've seen from this Purdue offense of late.  It has actually scored 35-plus points in three of its last four games, including the 38 on Illinois and the 31 on Michigan State.  Akeem Hunt rushed for 96 yards and three touchdowns against the Spartans on only 12 carries.  Hunt is one of the more underrated backs in the country as he has 542 yards and five touchdowns this season while averaging 6.2 per carry.

This Minnesota offense simply isn't explosive enough to put away a team like Purdue.  The Gophers are only averaging 27.0 points and 331.8 yards per game this season to rank 116th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense.  That's really bad when you consider they have played a very suspect schedule to this point.

The Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.  Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Boilermakers are 13-6 SU & 12-6-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings with Minnesota.  Take Purdue Saturday.

20* Temple/Houston AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +8

The Temple Owls (4-1) are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have already doubled their win total from a year ago with their only loss coming to a very good Navy team by a final of 24-31. Their two most impressive performances of the season came in their two road games.

They went on the road and beat Vanderbilt 37-7 despite being an 8.5-point underdog in that game. They also went to Connecticut and came away with a 36-10 win as a 6-point favorite. Sure, Vanderbilt and UConn are not great teams, but the way the Owls beat them down speaks volumes about what they are capable of.

The Owls have been impressive on both sides of the football. They are averaging 38.2 points per game and giving up just 14.4 points per game on the season. They have been a much more competitive team ever since P.J. Walker took over as starting quarterback over the final seven games last year. Walker is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,099 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions this year, while also rushing for 92 yards and three scores.

Sure, Houston beat Temple 22-13 on the road last year and probably should have won by more due to the yardage differential, but that was an early-season game. It was prior to Walker taking over as the starting quarterback. With Walker, the Owls are more than capable of going into Houston and coming away with a victory in this one.

The Cougars have not been impressive at all this season. They already have three losses on the year, including a 7-27 home loss to a UTSA team that is not that good in the opener. They are getting a lot of respect for their 28-24 win at Memphis last week, which has inflated this line up to 8 when it should be right around a field goal, providing some value with a road underdog Owls in this one.

While Temple has scored 35 or more points in four of its five games this season, Houston has been held to 28 or fewer points in four of its five games. It lacks the offensive firepower to put away Temple in this one. That’s especially the case considering how well the Owls have played defensively this year in giving up just 326.6 yards per game. The Cougars are only averaging 371.5 yards per game on offense against defenses that are giving up an average of 409 yards per game.

Temple is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. The Owls are 9-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog. Temple is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Temple Friday.

15* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

I look for a shootout tonight between the New England Patriots and New York Jets in this AFC East showdown.  This has been a very high-scoring series in recent years and I look for that to continue in their first meeting of 2014.

Indeed, the OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Patriots and Jets.  They have combined to score 48 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings, including 51 or more in five of the last six.

The Patriots are back. They went to a no-huddle, up-tempo offense against the Bengals and have put together their two most complete performances of the season as a result. They beat the Bengals 43-17 while putting up 505 yards of total offense. Then last week, they topped the Bills 37-22 while racking up 396 yards.

Tom Brady has been much more efficient in the new-look offense. He completed 23 of 35 passes for 292 yards with two touchdowns and no picks against the Bengals. Brady went 27 of 37 for 361 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Bills last week. Those are two of the better defenses in the league, and Brady was able to do whatever he wanted to against them.

The Patriots have two key injuries that will also favor the over.  They lost running back Steven Ridley for the season, so they will certainly be putting the ball in the air a lot in this one.  They also lost arguably their best defensive player in Jarrod Mayo to a season-ending injury last week.  The Jets should have success running the football because of it.

New England is 6-0 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 6-0 to the OVER against teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over the last three years.  New England is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  New England is 12-1 to the OVER after having won two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.  These five trends combine for a 38-2 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* VA Tech/Pitt ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest Thursday night between Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.  These are two teams with very good defenses and limited offenses who will find points very hard to come by.

Virginia Tech’s defense is going to be able to stop Pittsburgh’s offense. The Hokies have been tremendous against the run in allowing just 109 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry against teams who average 191 yards per game and 4.9 per carry, holding them to 82 yards and 1.5 per carry below their season average.

Pittsburgh is a team that relies exclusively on the run. It averages 46 rushing attempts and 244 yards per game on the ground compared to 24 pass attempts and 161 yards per game through the air. Their one-dimensional offense is going to struggle to move the football in this one.

The Panthers have given up 25 or fewer points in all six games they have played.  They are allowing just 19.0 points and 277.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total defense.  The Hokies have put up decent numbers offensively, but they've been up against six teams whose defenses average giving up 29.6 points and 415 yards per game.  They haven't faced a defense near the caliber of the one they will be up against Thursday.

Virginia Tech has played four elite offensive football teams this year, which makes their numbers defensively all the more impressive.  They combined with Ohio State for 56 points, East Carolina for 49 points, Georgia Tech for 51 points, and North Carolina for 51 points.  There's no question this game will stay below the 45.5-point total against a much worse offense and a much better defense in Pittsburgh.

In its last three games, Pittsburgh has combined with Iowa for 44 points, with Akron for 31 points, and with Virginia for 43 points as all three games have gone UNDER the total.  Look for this contest against the Hokies to take on a similar tone as they have a much better defense than those three teams, and only a slightly better offense.

Last year, Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh 19-9 at home for 28 combined points when the game total was set at 43.  This was precisely the defensive battle that the score would indicate as well.  The Hokies held the Panthers to 11 first downs and 210 total yards.  Virginia Tech managed 17 first downs and just 315 total yards in the victory.

Pittsburgh is 34-18 to the UNDER in its last 52 games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 24-9-1 in Hokies last 34 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Panthers last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Panthers last five games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Panthers last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* UL-Lafayette/Texas State No-Doubt Rout on Texas State -2

I’ve been really impressed with the Texas State Bobcats (3-2) in 2014 in just their third season as an FBS member and their second in the Sun Belt Conference. This is a team that went 6-6 last year with five of their wins coming against FBS foes. They certainly have a shot at bowl eligibility this year and are a dark horse candidate to win the Sun Belt.

While the Bobcats’ three wins aren’t all that impressive aside from the 37-34 win at Tulsa as 3-point underdogs, their two losses say a lot about what kind of team this is. They only lost 21-35 at home to a very good Navy team while racking up 442 yards of total offense in the defeat. More promising yet was their 35-42 loss at Illinois as 11-point underdogs as they gained 475 yards in that game.

As you can see, Texas State has a very good offense, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering it returned eight starters on this side of the ball from last year. It is putting up 38.6 points and 497.8 yards per game on the season. Tyler Jones is completing 68.4 percent of his passes for 1,149 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 253 yards and four scores. Terrance Franks (408 yards, 7.8/carry, 6 TD) and Robert Lowe (402 yards, 5.9/carry, 2 TD) form a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Many expected Louisiana to win the Sun Belt this year. That looks like a long shot now after what this team has shown so far. The Rajin’ Cajuns’ only wins this season have both come at home against Southern (45-6) as a 38.5-point favorite and Georgia State (34-31) as a 16.5-point favorite. That half-point cover against Southern was the only cover for them all season. They have lost to LA Tech (20-48) at home, and Ole Miss (15-56) and Boise State (9-34) on the road.

I realize that Louisiana crushed Texas State last year by a final of 48-24. However, that couldn’t have been a better spot for the Rajin’ Cajuns as they were coming off a bye week and had a bye week on deck. It’s clear that the Rajin’ Cajuns are way down this season compared to last year, while the Bobcats are vastly improved. The Bobcats should have no problem moving the football and putting up points on a Louisiana defense that is giving up 35.0 points and 458.0 yards per game on the season.

Plays against road underdogs (LA LAFAYETTE) – after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 94-48 (66.2%) ATS since 1992. Louisiana is 0-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. Lafayette is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or less turnovers over the past two years. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Bet Texas State Tuesday.

20* 49ers/Rams ESPN Monday No-Brainer on San Francisco -3

The San Francisco 49ers (3-2) are a couple blown second-half leads to the Bears and Cardinals away from being undefeated this year. They have rebounded nicely over the last two weeks with a 26-21 win over the Eagles and a 22-17 victory over the Chiefs. Both games were dominant performances by the 49ers. They outgained the Eagles 407-213 and forced four turnovers, while also outgaining the Chiefs 357-265.

Many thought that their defense would be down this season, but that couldn’t have been further from the truth. They are still very much getting it done on that side of the ball. Indeed, the 49ers rank 2nd in the league in total defense, giving up just 282.8 yards per game this season.

St. Louis has taken a massive step back on that side of the ball this season. It only has one sack through four games, and a big reason for that is the injury to defensive end Chris Long. The Rams rank 13th in total defense this year, giving up 344.8 yards per game. They are also allowing a whopping 29.8 points per game this season, which is the third-worst mark in the league.

Frank Gore voiced his frustration after the 49ers’ 1-2 start. This team was built behind a physical running game and a defense. The 49ers have gotten back to their old ways the past two weeks, rushing for 218 yards on the Eagles and 171 on the Chiefs. Gore accounted for 119 yards on 24 carries against the Eagles and 107 yards on 18 carries against the Chiefs.

After back-to-back strong performances on the ground, the 49ers now rank 3rd in the league in rushing at 145.0 yards per game. The biggest weakness for the Rams’ defense is against the run.  They rank 31st in the league in rushing defense, allowing 152.5 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season.

San Francisco has dominated this series with St. Louis, going 13-4-1 in the last 18 meetings. Last year, it put together a pair of blowout victories with a 35-11 win on the road and a 23-13 home victory. The 49ers outscored the Rams a combined 58-24 in the two victories. The defense limited the Rams’ offense to an average of 250 yards per game in the two wins as well.

The 49ers are 8-1 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 Monday games. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NFC West opponents. St. Louis is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game.  Bet the 49ers Monday.

15* Giants/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3

These are two teams trending in opposite directions. Few teams have played as well as the New York Giants over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, the Eagles have not looked very impressive over the last three weeks and are fortunate to be 4-1 on the season. They have won three games by 6 points or less, and they lost to the 49ers 21-26 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Only beating the Redskins 37-34 at home back in Week 3 looks like a really poor performance right now because they are 1-4 on the season. In that loss to the 49ers, the Eagles were outgained 213-407 for the game. They got three non-offensive touchdowns against the 49ers, and then came back back with two more last week against the Rams.

That gives the Eagles a whopping seven non-offensive touchdowns for the season, which is by far the most in the league and will not continue at nearly this pace.  They were outgained by the Redskins by 132 yards and by the Rams by 114 yards. So, over the last three weeks combined, the Eagles have been outgained by a total of 440 yards. 

They have been outgained by more than 200 yards on the season, which isn't the sign of a 4-1 team.  They have also really struggled in the red zone as their spread offense just doesn't get it done when they get inside the opponent's 20-yard line.  Indeed, they have scored touchdowns on just 6 of their 16 trips into the red zone this season.

Nick Foles is being exposed this season.  He played well behind a dominant offensive line last year that saw all five starters start in all 16 games.  Now, the Eagles have really been beat up along the offensive line as they are down at least two starters.  Foles and the offense have struggled to move the football, especially the last two weeks.  Their rushing attack was 1st in the league last year, but just 23rd in 2014, averaging a mere 98.6 yards per game.  That can also be attributed to the struggles and injuries along the O-Line.

The Giants have won three straight games by double-digits. They dominated Houston in a 30-17 home win, went on the road and beat Washington 45-14, and then toppled Atlanta 30-20 at home last week. The new West Coast offense has really come alive with an average of 35 points per game over the last three weeks. Eli Manning and company are hitting on all cylinders right now and should be able to do what they want against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 28th in the league, giving up an average of 406.2 yards per game.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between the Giants and Eagles. The road team has actually won five of the last seven meetings outright while going a combined 5-1-1 against the spread. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series as well.

New York is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. awful passing defenses that allow 260 or more passing yards per game. The Giants are 33-12 ATS in their last 45 road games off two or more consecutive ATS wins. New York is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 October games. The Giants are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Eagles are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 home games. Philadelphia is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are 4-20 ATS in their last 24 when playing the role of the favorite for the second week in a row.  Take the Giants Sunday.

Note - I recommend buying the Giants to +3 if you have the option.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +7.5

The Raiders have fired yet another head coach in Dennis Allen. He simply did not get the job done as this team went just 4-12 in his first two seasons, and then opened 0-4 this year. The veteran Tony Sparano, who took a 1-15 Miami team to the playoffs in his first year as head coach there, takes over. Any time a team goes through a coaching change like this, they usually respond in that first game back.

This was the perfect timing for the Raiders to make that change considering they had a bye last week. That gives Sparano a chance to work with the team for two full weeks. I look for them to come out and play their best game of the season this week, especially since they won’t have any problem getting motivated to face their division rivals in the Chargers.

Oakland has played San Diego very tough over the past four seasons. Indeed, it has gone 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Chargers. The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Even the four losses have been relatively close as all four have come by 13 points or less. The Raiders beat the Chargers 27-17 at home loss year as 5.5-point underdogs, and now they are catching 7.5 points in their 2014 home meeting.

San Diego is clearly overvalued right now due to starting a perfect 5-0 against the spread through its first five games. The betting public has taken notice, and has been pounding the Chargers in recent weeks. Oddsmakers have had no other choice but to inflate their line this week knowing that everyone wants to bet the Chargers, while nobody wants to bet the Raiders right now. That’s indicated by the fact that roughly 80% of the bets are coming in on the Chargers in this one, providing some nice line value with the Raiders.  Also, this line was San Diego -3 to open the season.

Here are some interesting trends backing the Raiders.  Winless teams in Week 6 or later in the role of the underdog have covered 63% of the time.  Winless teams off a bye are 29-11 ATS in the last 40 instances.  If you bet $1,000/game on all NFL road favorites of 7 or more points over the last 20 years, you would be down $63,000.

Plays on home underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) – after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a terrible team (winning 25% or fewer games) playing a team with a winning record are 117-63 (65%) ATS since 1983. The Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Raiders are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 October games.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

Note - I'd still take the Raiders at +7.  You don't need to buy it to 7.5.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New England Patriots -2.5

New England proved that it was far from done for last week with a 43-17 home win over Cincinnati. Everyone was writing Tom Brady and the offense off, and all they did was rack up 505 total yards against one of the best defenses in the league. Look for this game to be the turning point for the offense and the team as a whole. The way they rallied around one another, the Patriots are going to be a scary bunch going forward.

The key last week for the Patriots is that they went to a hurry-up, no-huddle offense to find a rhythm and keep the Bengals guessing.  They ran a whopping 82 plays, which is like the Oregon Ducks of college football.  The even ran the ball 46 times against Cincinnati.  This is the kind of offense you are going to see from Brady and company going forward as it's clearly what they have to do to be most effective.

The Bills are coming off a big win at Detroit that has them overvalued here. Had they not beaten the Lions, they would be more than a 2.5-point underdog in this one. They did not really deserve to win that game as the Lions missed three field goals, which led to the release of their kicker. This is a solid Buffalo team and one that is certainly improved, but the offensive struggles for this team will hold them back in this one.

Buffalo ranks just 26th in the league in total offense at 325.2 yards per game this season. Kyle Orton did throw for over 300 yards against the Lions, but nobody is going to mistake him for Peyton Manning. Speaking of mistakes, he also threw and interception that was returned for a touchdown. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering he has been known for making mistakes throughout his career. Orton hasn't magically fixed the offense, and he's not going to out-duel Tom Brady in this one.

Nobody has dominated one team quite like the Patriots. Indeed, they have gone 20-1 straight up in their last 21 meetings with the Bills. With this line set at only 2.5 points, the Patriots essentially just have to win to cover the spread. I like their chances of winning by a field goal or more and to continue the one-sided nature of this series Sunday afternoon.

New England is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games vs. a marginal winning team with a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. New England is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games after allowing 3 point or less in the first half of last game. The Bills are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

Note - I'd still take the Patriots at -3

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +3.5

It has been feast or famine for the Miami Dolphins (2-2) in 2014. They could not have looked better in their 33-20 home win over New England in the opener as they held the Patriots to just 315 total yards. They also looked great last time out in a 38-14 win against Oakland in London, outgaining the Raiders 435-317 for the game while forcing four turnovers.

I tend to believe that the Dolphins are somewhere in between their performances against the Patriots and Raiders and their blowout losses to the Bills (10-29) and Chiefs (15-34). I would lean toward they are more the team that beat the Raiders and Patriots in blowout fashion as well. They certainly should be putting their best foot forward on Sunday considering they are coming off their bye week.

One key coaching edge the Dolphins have in this one is that head coach Joe Philbin was the former offensive coordinator of the Packers. He knows exactly what they like to run, and he’ll be very prepared to stop it. Meanwhile, Philbin has handed over the play-calling duties to Bill Lazor this season, the former offensive coordinator under Chip Kelly and the Eagles last year. So, the Packers aren’t familiar with the system that Philbin’s team is running. Having two weeks to prepare for the Packers is even bigger for the Dolphins since Philbin knows that offense inside and out.

I believe Green Bay is being overvalued here because it is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Chicago (38-17) and Minnesota (42-10). That win over Chicago was nowhere near the blowout the final score would indicate. In fact, the Packers were actually outgained 358-496 by the Bears in that contest and probably should not have won. Then, they got to play the Vikings last week, who were starting third-stringer Christian Ponder at quarterback.

The Packers have been atrocious on the road this season. They are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS while getting outgained 278.7 to 415.7, or by an average of 137 yards per game. They are a completely different team when they get away from the friendly confines of Lambeau Field.  Green Bay has been outgained by more than 300 yards on the season, while Miami has actually outgained opponents by over 100 yards this year.  This shows that Miami is arguably the better team.

Another factor to keep in mind here is the heat in Miami.  Temperatures are expected to be around 91 and humid with a heat index of 95 for Sunday.  The Patriots, a cold weather team, struggled in the second half against the Dolphins, getting outscored 23-0 after intermission.  The Packers, another cold weather team, figure to struggle in the second half in this heat as well.

Miami ranks 5th in the league in rushing at 142.2 yards per game.  Green Bay ranks dead last against the run, yielding 163.0 yards per game.  The Dolphins get back starting center Mike Pouncey this week from injury, which will only enhance the performance of their offensive line.  Look for Miami to control the time of possession with their ability to run the football.  That will really wear down this shaky Packers' defense and will have a really big impact in the warm weather, especially in the second half.

The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. Miami is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 6-0 ATS as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

Note - I'd still take the Dolphins at +3.  If you get 2.5 buy it to 3 if you have the option, but don't buy it to 3.5.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +7

The Panthers certainly have had a pair of uncharacteristic performances in their blowout losses at the hands of the Steelers and Ravens. However, they have been very solid in their other three games with a 20-14 win at Tampa Bay without Cam Newton, a 24-7 home win over Detroit that looks really good right now, and a 31-24 home win over Chicago last week. I tend to believe that the Panthers are closer to the team that they were last year when they went 12-4 rather than the one that was blown out in consecutive weeks.

I have no doubt that Cincinnati was overvalued after a 3-0 start that made most media outlets peg the Bengals as the best team in the league. They couldn’t be further from it, and that showed last week in a 17-43 road loss to a New England team that isn’t as good as it has been in year’s past. The Bengals gave up 505 total yards to the Patriots in the loss.

Cincinnati was overvalued as a favorite last week in New England, and it is once again being overvalued as a 7-point home favorite in this contest. These teams are very similar in that they rely on physical defenses. I just believe that Carolina’s stop unit is better than that of Cincinnati, and that will show this week.

The Bengals rank a woeful 27th in the league in total defense this year, giving up 390.8 yards per game.  Despite being 3-1, they have actually been outgained by nearly 100 yards on the season, which is a stat that shows they are not as good as their record would indicate.  They are also overvalued due to their success at home over the past few seasons.

Cincinnati is expected to be without its best players in wide receiver A.J. Green this week.  Green is a matchup nightmare and worth more points to the Bengals than perhaps any other receiver in the league would be to their respective teams.  Sure, Calvin Johnson is up there, but the Lions have a plethora of other weapons.  The Bengals do not, and the loss of Green will be felt in this one as the Panthers can stack the box and stop the run, because they know Andy Dalton cannot beat them without Green.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) – after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. While the betting public is being quick to overlook Cincinnati’s blowout loss to New England, it is not overlooking Carolina’s two blowout losses to the Ravens and Steelers. That’s why there is clearly value with the Panthers, as this trend suggests.

Carolina is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 games versus poor rushing defenses that allow 130 or more yards per game. Cincinnati is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in its last game. The Bengals are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss by 21 or more points, coming back to lose by an average of 10.5 points per game in this spot.  The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

Note - I'd still recommend a play on the Panthers at +6.5.  I will be buying it to 7, and recommend you do the same if you have the option.

15* Penn State/Michigan ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

James Franklin has had a bye week to get his team ready for Michigan. It certainly could not have been a pleasant bye week for these Nittany Lions players as they made all kinds of mistakes in their 23-point loss to Northwestern last time out. However, I believe that performance was an aberration and not the typical effort you will see from this Penn State (4-1) team the rest of the way, especially this week.

The Nittany Lions had been very impressive prior to that game during their 4-0 start. They outgained UCF by 265 yards in their 26-24 win over in Ireland, outgained Akron by 148 yards in their 21-3 home victory, outgained Rutgers by 79 yards in their 13-10 road win, and outgained UMass by 198 yards in their 48-7 home victory. They turned the ball over twice against Northwestern, including one that was returned for a touchdown to blow the game open in the fourth quarter. This was a 14-6 game entering the final period.

It’s amazing that Brady Hoke has kept his job with the start the Wolverines are off to this season. They have gone just 2-4 with their only wins coming at home against the likes of Appalachian State and Miami Ohio. They were blown out on the road by Notre Dame 31-0, and they suffered lopsided defeats at the hands of both Utah (10-26) and Minnesota (14-30) at home.

Even their 24-26 loss at Rutgers last week was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Wolverines 476-336 for the game, or by 140 total yards. Michigan was also outgained by a whopping 202 total yards by Minnesota the week before as its offense only put up 171 yards in that 16-point loss. The Wolverines have been held to 336 or fewer yards in all four of their losses.

It’s going to be tough sledding for the Michigan offense again this week against perhaps the best defense they have seen yet. The Nittany Lions are only giving up 14.6 points and 288.8 yards per game this season to rank 9th in the country in total defense. Offensively, the Nittany Lions have the superior unit as they are averaging 407.8 yards per game, while the Wolverines are only averaging 354.0 yards per game.

Making matters worse for the Michigan offense is the fact that it is going to be without its leading rusher for the rest of the season.  Derrick Green (471 yards, 5.7/carry, 3 TD) broke his collarbone against Rutgers and is done for the year.  Also, second-leading rusher De'Veon Smith (282 yards, 6.0/carry, 4 TD) is dealing with an injury, though he is expected to give it a go against Penn State.  That puts even more pressure on Devin Gardner, who has already thrown seven interceptions in 120 attempts this season.

Penn State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Michigan. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points. Michigan is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after having lost four of its last five games coming in.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Nittany Lions.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MICHIGAN) – with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS since 1992. The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama -8.5

There’s no question that Nick Saban is steaming over the loss to Ole Miss. That will be reflected in practice this week in preparation for Arkansas. Look for him to rally the troops and have the Crimson Tide coming back motivated and determined this week as all of their goals are still within their grasp despite that loss. This team is simply too talented for the Razorbacks to hang with.

To say this has been a one-sided series in recent years would be a massive understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Arkansas with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points per game. Five of those wins have come by 24 or more points, and the last two have resulted in 52-0 blowouts in the Crimson Tide’s favor. While the Razorbacks are a better team this year, they aren’t good enough to stay within single-digits of Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have been dominant statistically this season. They average 37.0 points and 549.2 yards per game on offense, which makes this one of the most explosive units in the Saban era. While the defense is perceived to be down a notch, they are still allowing just 15.8 points and 264.8 yards per game and are only going to get better on this side of the ball as the season progresses.

Arkansas is an improved offensive team this season, but its defense leaves a lot to be desired. It is giving up 25.8 points and 403.2 yards per game this season. In the opener against Auburn, the Razorbacks were beaten 21-45 as they were outgained 328-595 for the game. Alabama is every bit as good as Auburn this season, so expect a one-sided affair in this one. The Razorbacks also gave up 523 total yards to Texas A&M last time out.

Alabama is only giving up 64 yards per game and 2.6 per carry on the ground this season, so the Razorbacks won’t be able to do a whole lot defensively because they rely on the run almost exclusively.  Indeed, the Razorbacks average 317 yards on the ground and only 168 through the air.  This is the type of game where being one-dimensional is going to really cost Arkansas.

Alabama is 35-19 ATS in its last 54 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. Bret Bielema is 2-14 ATS versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or less yards per game in all games he has coached.  Finally, the Crimson Tide have not lost back-to-back SEC games since Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa back in 2007.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* Auburn/Mississippi State CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Mississippi State +3

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-0) have been arguably the most underrated team in the country up to this point. I believe they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve as a 3-point home underdog to the Auburn Tigers (5-0) in this one. It makes sense because they have been down for so long, but this isn’t the same Mississippi State team of year’s past. This is Dan Mullen’s best team yet with 16 starters back, and a legitimate contender to win the SEC West.

The last two wins by Mississippi State show that it is for real. It went into LSU and came away with a 34-29 victory as a 7-point underdog. That game wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Bulldogs led 34-10 in the fourth quarter before LSU got 19 garbage points in the final period. They dominated from start to finish last week, beating Texas A&M 48-31 at home as a 2.5-point favorite.

I stated last week that Dak Prescott is a guy you need to keep your eye on for the Heisman Trophy, and he had another big performance against the Aggies. He totaled five touchdowns in the win with two passing and three rushing. Prescott is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 455 yards and six scores on the season. He is a 235-pound quarterback in a running back’s body.

While I admit that Auburn has been better than I expected this season, it has done all of its damage at home. In its only road game this year, it won 20-14 at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite. It had no business winning that game as the Wildcats missed three field goals. They also had a touchdown pass dropped in the end zone that turned into an interception for the Tigers.

The home team has won three straight meetings in this series. Last year, Mississippi State only lost 20-24 at Auburn as a 6.5-point road underdog. That effort against the eventual SEC champs showed what the Bulldogs were capable of. Now, with a much better team in 2014 and getting the Tigers at home this time around, I look for the the Bulldogs to pull off the upset this week.

Sure, Mississippi State has been torched through the air this year, but that won't come into play this week against an Auburn team that throws the ball just 34% of the time and runs it 66% of the time.  That makes this a great match-up for the Bulldogs, who are only giving up 98 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry against opponents who average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Auburn's one-dimensional offense will cost them, while Mississippi State's balanced attack (274 rypg, 267 pypg) will be tough for the Tigers to stop.

One trend that just goes to show how undervalued the Bulldogs have been is the fact that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +8

If you’ve ready anything I’ve written about TCU (4-0) before, you’ll know that they were my pick to win the Big 12 coming into the season. I was on them last week against Oklahoma, and I am taking them this week against Baylor as well. This is arguably the best team that head coach Gary Patterson has had yet. They only went 4-8 last year but were much better than that, losing by a field goal to both Baylor and Oklahoma.

In that 38-41 home loss to Baylor last year, the Horned Frogs played the Bears as good as almost anyone. They actually outgained them 410-370 for the game, but committed three turnovers that cost them the victory. The defense limited Bryce Petty to just 19 of 38 passing for 206 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, which is no small feat. Their defense played as well against Baylor as anyone last year.

That stop unit has been a big reason for the 4-0 start this season. The Horned Frogs are only giving up 13.5 points and 279.2 yards per game this year. They actually ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in total defense last season among conference games. This stop unit does not get enough credit, and it is fully capable of containing this high-powered Baylor offense again in 2014.

However, the biggest difference for TCU this year has been the improvement on offense. It went to a new no-huddle, spread offense, and it is getting rave reviews. The Frogs are averaging 42.7 points and 516.2 yards per game this season. They put up 37 points and 469 total yards against Oklahoma last week as Trevone Boykin threw for 318 yards and rushed for 77 more. Boykin has thrown for 1,176 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 260 yards and three scores this year.

Baylor is a team I have backed in four of the five games it has played this year, so I have been big on the Bears as well. They have gone 4-0-1 against the spread in all games this season. However, the betting public is finally onto how good this team is, and they are finally overvalued this week as more than a touchdown favorite.

TCU is by far the best team that they have faced this year as the Bears have played an extremely soft schedule, so they aren’t battle-tested, which hurts them coming into this one.  Baylor has played the likes of SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo, Iowa State and Texas.  TCU's win over Oklahoma gives it the confidence needed to go into Baylor and pull off the upset in this one.

The Horned Frogs have really dominated this series with the Bears.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Baylor dating back to 2006.  Their two losses have come by a combined 5 points.  Back in 2012, the Horned Frogs went on the road and beat Baylor 49-21 as 6-point underdogs.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire and for TCU to likely win the game, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Baylor is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. good pass defenses that allow 48% completions or less. The Bears are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games versus good defensive teams that give up 4.25 or fewer yards per play. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Baylor.  Bet TCU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on North Carolina +17

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0) are way overvalued this week off their win over Stanford last week. There are certain games where statistics can be thrown out the window, and this is one of them.  You look at the numbers and you see a great Notre Dame defense and a terrible UNC stop unit up to this point, but those are two things I'm willing to overlook because of this tough situation for the Fighting Irish.

That victory over the Cardinal sets them up for a letdown spot here. Couple that with the fact that they play No. 1 Florida State next week, and there’s almost no way they bring their best effort to the field against UNC. They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Seminoles and won’t have the kind of focus it takes to win by 17-plus points against the Tar Heels.

Without question, North Carolina has been way overvalued up to this point in the season. Many thought that it would win the ACC Coastal Division this season, but that is looking like a long shot now after three straight losses, including two to ACC foes.

However, those three losses all came to very good teams in East Carolina, Clemson and Virginia Tech. They at least hung around against both Clemson and VA Tech as last week’s 17-34 find score against the Hokies was nowhere near indicative of how close the game was.  I really liked what I saw out of this UNC defense last week as they limited the Hokies to 357 yards of total offense. It just shows that the defense can be better than it was through the first four games of the season.

After going 0-5 against the spread through their first five games, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Tar Heels. They are finally undervalued now after being overvalued up to this point. It’s time to jump back on the Tar Heels, who won six of their final seven games last season to come on strong in the second half after a slow start.  I can easily foresee the same thing happening in 2014 with the talent that is on this roster.

The Fighting Irish were in a similar letdown spot earlier this season.  They were coming off a 31-0 win over Michigan in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Wolverines actually outgained them for the game.  They played Purdue next week, and I was all over the Boilermakers as 30-point underdogs.  The Fighting Irish only won that game by 16 points.  This is an even tougher spot for them because of the letdown/lookahead spot combined, and UNC is a better team than Purdue.

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off four or more consecutive unders. Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) – average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last three games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1992. The Tar Heels are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. UNC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0) certainly were not that dominant in their first three non-conference games, but they got the job done. Their 42-38 win over Georgia Southern had many folks skeptical, but it has been proven since that Georgia Southern is no joke. With a 27-24 road win at Virginia Tech and a 28-17 home win over Miami to open ACC play, it’s also clear that the Yellow Jackets are a real contender to win the Coastal Division this season.

Duke is a team I had circled coming into the year as overvalued. It certainly was overvalued heading into ACC play due to four straight wins in the non-conference over lowly teams like Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. That showed in a 10-22 road loss to Miami in its ACC opener in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils were outgained by the Hurricanes 264-426 for the game and should have lost by more.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. Georgia Tech is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Duke with an average victory of 21.2 points per game. It is 18-1 the last 19 meetings as well while winning nine straight home meetings all by 10 or more points. Last year, Georgia Tech beat the Blue Devils 38-14 while outgaining them 469-254 for the game in an completely lopsided affair.

Duke will likely have the same troubles in this one, which is stopping the run. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 344 yards on them last year. They rank 11th in the FBS in rushing (297.2 ypg) behind quarterback Justin Thomas (6.0 ypc) and Zach Laskey (5.0 ypc). Duke has given up over 200 yards rushing in each of its last three games to Kansas, Tulane and Miami.

It’s really sad that the Blue Devils gave up that many yards to both Kansas and Tulane and shows what kind of poor shape this rush D is really in.  Sure, Duke does get a bye to prepare for Georgia Tech, but that is the only factor it has working in its favor.  A bye is not going to magically upgrade their talent on defense, which is what they need to be able to stop this potent Yellow Jackets rushing attack.  David Cutcliffe is 1-9 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 or more yards per play as the coach of Duke.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off their bye week, so they have two full weeks to prepare for Indiana, which is a huge advantage. They did look shaky in the early going this season with a 2-1 start that included a loss to Iowa State.  However, they have gotten a lot better in their two games since, which have been their two most impressive performances of the season.

Quarterback C.J. Bethard replaced an injured Jake Rudock midway through the Pittsburgh game a couple weeks ago.  He led Iowa to a come-from-behind 24-20 road victory over the Panthers as 6.5-point underdogs.  Bethard continued his solid play the next week, leading Iowa to a 24-10 road win at Purdue as an 8.5-point favorite.

Head coach Kirk is beating around the bush with the media about who is going to play quarterback this week now that Rudock is healthy.  However, with Bethard being the reason for the solid play the last two weeks by this team, there's almost no doubt in my mind that he will get the nod.  He is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt over the last two games compared to Rudock's 6.3 yards per attempt against softer competition in the first three-plus games.  His ability to throw the deep ball opens up the Iowa rushing attack.

Indiana is being overvalued right now due to its 31-27 road win at Missouri.  I was on Indiana in that game because it was a huge lookahead spot for the Tigers, who had their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina the following week.  They caught the Tigers in a spot where they were ripe for the upset.

Really, that was the Hoosiers' only strong performance this season.  They have two terrible efforts in a 42-45 road loss at Bowling Green as a 9-point favorite, and a 15-37 home loss to Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite.  Those two performances are more indicative of what kind of team Indiana is rather than the upset win at Missouri.

This is a great matchup for Iowa because its strength is stopping the run, while Indiana's strength is its rushing attack.  The Hoosiers are averaging 300 yards per game on the ground this season.  However, Iowa is only giving up 93 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's really impressive when you consider the teams they have played average 145 yards per game and 4.0 per carry on the season.

Iowa has won four of its last five meetings with Indiana with its only loss coming in 2012 by a final of 21-24 on the road.  The Hawkeyes are a real contender to win the Big Ten West Division this season, and they know that they cannot afford to overlook a team like Indiana.  They won't fall victim this week because they have had two weeks to prepare and are itching to get back on the field.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Indiana is 0-13 ATS in its last 13 games after outrushing its last opponents by 200 or more yards.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS off a win by 17 or more points over the last three seasons.  Thee Hoosiers are 0-7 ATS in their last six games following a win.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State -10

Fresno State (3-3) is coming off a 24-13 home victory over San Diego State last week for its third win in a row. UNLV (1-5) has lost four in a row, including its 10-33 road loss at the hands of San Jose State last week.

The Bulldogs have rebounded nicely with three straight wins and covers following three straight losses and ATS defeats to open the season. Those three losses came against three of the better teams in the country in USC, Utah and Nebraska. They really got the Bulldogs battle-tested heading into conference play, and they have looked like a much better team against inferior competition.

They beat Southern Utah 56-16, New Mexico 35-24 on the road, and San Diego State 24-13 at home. Their defense has really showed some life by limiting each of their last three opponents to 382 or less yards, including the 270 yards to the Aztecs last week. Their offense has also come around with 694 total yards against Southern Utah and 593 total yards against New Mexico. This team is really hitting on all cylinders right now.

UNLV has gone 1-5 against the spread in 2014 after making a bowl game last year. This team has been overvalued all season long to say the least. Its only cover came as an 18-point underdog to San Diego State in a 17-point loss. All five of its losses have come by 14 or more points this season, and its only win came against FCS foe Northern Colorado by a final of 13-12 as a 27.5-point home favorite.

The Rebels have really been bitten by injuries this season. Starting quarterback Blake Decker was injured in last week’s 10-33 loss to San Jose State in which they were outgained by 321 total yards by the Spartans in perhaps their worst effort of the year. Backup Nick Sherry was awful as his replacement, completing just 5 of 18 passes for 45 yards with no touchdowns and one pick.

Decker is questionable to return this week. This is an offense that was already without last year’s top receiver in Devante Davis (87 receptions, 1,290 yards, 14 TD in 2013), who has missed the past two games and is questionable to return this week.  Also, leading rusher Keith Whitely (299 yards, 4.9/carry) is questionable with a knee injury suffered last week.

The Rebels really need these players to be healthy because their offense is going to have a hard time keeping up with opponents due to their porous defense. Indeed, the Rebels are giving up an average of 38.7 points and 545.3 yards per game this season. That’s really bad when you consider that their five opponents this season average just 25.9 points and 418 total yards per game on the year.

Fresno State has owned UNLV by going 10-0 in the last 10 meetings with an average score of 38-16. All 10 wins came by 11 points or more. That includes last year’s 38-14 triumph by the Bulldogs that was completely a one-sided affair. The Bulldogs outgained the Rebels 641-294 for the game. Look for Fresno State to score at will offensively, and to get enough stops against this injury-riddled UNLV offense to cover the number Friday.

Plays on road favorites (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Fresno State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take Fresno State Friday.

20* SDSU/New Mexico Mountain West No-Brainer on New Mexico +4.5

San Diego State (2-3) is coming off a 13-24 road loss to Fresno State last week as a 3.5-point underdog. New Mexico (2-3) is coming off a huge upset win at UTSA by a final of 21-9 as a 16.5-point underdog.

San Diego State head coach Rocky Long said on Sunday that senior quarterback Quinn Kaehler is expected to miss a second straight game after sitting out the 13-24 loss to Fresno State last week. That means freshman QB Nick Bawden will get another start after a disastrous effort against the Bulldogs. Bawden threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, and those three turnovers led to 14 points for Fresno State.

Bawden went just 9-of-24 passing for 84 yards with one touchdown on those three turnovers against Fresno State. The loss of Kaehler, who threw for 3,007 yards and 19 touchdowns last year, certainly hurts. The offense was already without last year’s leading receiver in Ezell Ruffin, who had 68 receptions for 1,136 yards and three scores n 2013. That means the offense has lost each of its top four receivers from last year, which makes it tougher on Bawden as he has no playmakers outside.

After a frustrating 24-35 loss to Fresno State two weeks ago, New Mexico showed a lot of resolve last week by going on the road and coming away with a 21-9 victory over a very good UTSA team. It outgained the Roadrunners 370-341 for the game as it put up 283 yards on the ground and 5.9 per carry. Look for the Lobos to control this game behind a potent rushing attack that is averaging 323 yards per game and 6.1 per carry on the season.

The Lobos had won eight straight meetings with the Aztecs prior to losing the last four. However, three of the last four losses have been by 10, 5 and 3 points. They will certainly want some revenge this time around, and should have a good chance of getting it as this is Bob Davie’s best team yet. They only lost 30-35 last year at SDSU as a 14-point underdog and were only outgained 483-423. The home team has won four of the last five meetings.

This is Rocky Long’s worst team yet at San Diego State. This team has really been inept on the road this season.  The Aztecs are 0-3 away from home, scoring just 15.7 points per game while giving up 27.7 points per contest.  They only managed 215 total yards in a 7-28 loss at Oregon State.  They were also held to only 13 points and 270 total yards last week against a very suspect Fresno State defense.

New Mexico is a sensational 39-22 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Lobos are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

20* Colts/Texans AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston +3

The Houston Texans have been one of the most improved teams in the league this season. They have gone 3-2 this season despite playing three games on the road. Both of their losses came away from home to the Giants and Cowboys, who are both playing tremendous football of late. The Texans have won both of their home games with a 17-6 triumph over Washington in the opener and a 23-17 win over Buffalo in Week 4.

Houston’s defense has been one of the better stop units in the league this year. It ranks 4th in the league in scoring defense at just 17.4 points per game allowed this season. This is a unit that has been one of the best in the league over the past four years, so this should come as no surprise. Look for the defense to limit the Indianapolis Colts’ offense in this one and to keep this game close for four quarters.

Last year, the Texans played well against the Colts defensively. They held Andrew Luck and company to just 331 yards on the road and 314 yards at home in their two meetings. In fact, the Texans led the Colts 24-6 late in the third quarter at home, but blew that lead and eventually lost by a final of 24-27 as nothing went right for this team last year. They even outgained the Colts 483-314 in that contest and obviously should have won. They want revenge in this one.

It’s amazing how much better of a team the Texans are when they have a healthy Arian Foster. He has rushed for 404 yards and three touchdowns in four games this season while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He is clearly still one of the best backs in the NFL, and a weapon that the Texans use a ton.

The Texans should have good success on the ground in this one as the Colts are giving up an average of 4.6 yards per carry on the season.  While Foster has voiced his displeasure about playing on Thursday's leading up to this game, his performance on the field begs to differ.  Foster has averaged 5.3 yards per carry while rushing for 343 yards and four touchdowns in three career Thursday games.

I believe the short week actually favors the Texans in this one.  They are familiar with the Colts, who run the same systems they did last year.  The Colts are not familiar with the Texans, who have completely different schemes under new head coach Bill O'Brien.  Only getting three days to prepare for those new schemes is a huge disadvantage for the Colts.

"It's a huge game for us," offensive tackle Duane Brown said.  "The good thing about the Colts is that we're very familiar with them. Of course you have a different game plan than we've had in years past, but as far as the personnel and things like that we kind of know what to expect. So that makes it a little bit easier, but it's never easy."

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) – after two straight dominating performances where they held the ball for 34-plus minutes and recorded 24-plus first downs are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1983. The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* BYU/UCF ESPN Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46

The season-ending injury to BYU quarterback Taysom Hill is going to derail their season. He was a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender and the reason this team was a sleeper to make the four-team playoff. He was having another fine game against Utah State last week before going out with a broken leg. Backup Christian Stewart was atrocious in his place, completing just 10 of 29 passes for 172 yards with no touchdown and three picks.

Stewart is not even one-fourth of the quarterback that Hill was. While he should be better with a full week to prepare to run the offense, he just lacks the leadership and dual-threat ability that Hill had. He’ll be up against another great defense this week in UCF, which is giving up just 20.7 points and 334.2 yards per game this season.  The Knights limited Houston to just 12 points and 331 total yards last week while forcing three turnovers in their 17-12 road victory over the Cougars.

While the BYU offense will struggle due to a limited playbook for their backup quarterback, their defense will likely shoulder the load and keep them in this ball game.  That's because they will be up against a UCF offense that has been terrible this year.  Indeed, the Knights rank 122nd out of 128 teams in total offense at 281.0 yards per game this season.  They clearly miss Blake Bortles, who has left for the NFL and leaves behind one of the worst offenses in all of college football.

These teams last met in 2011 with BYU coming away with a 24-17 home victory for 41 combined points.  The total was set at 44 points for that game, and I believe we'll see a similar result here with the final combined score finishing less than 46 points.  These teams combined for just 659 total yards in that game, and I look for that number to be less in the rematch considering the poor shape that both of these offenses are in.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BYU) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), in non-conference games are 50-18 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  BYU is 29-12 to the UNDER in its last 41 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Cougars last five Thursday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cougars last six road games.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knights last 43 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knights last five home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Seahawks/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +7.5

I believe the Redskins are undervalued here because they are coming off such a poor performance last week against the Giants where they essentially gave the game away by committing six turnovers. Meanwhile, the public perception is very high on the Seahawks off their win over the Broncos. They also have a bye week coming in, but that’s not as big of a factor here because the Redskins played last Thursday, so they essentially are getting half a bye week as well.

There has been a recent trend where teams have been blown out on Thursday Night Football and then come back as underdog to win outright in their next game.  It happened a couple weeks ago as the Steelers lost to the Ravens 26-6 before coming back the following Sunday to crush the Panthers.  The Bucs were beaten 14-56 at Atlanta and came back the next Sunday to beat the Steelers on the road as 7.5-point underdogs.

This is a make or break game for the Redskins, who have been much better than their 1-3 record would indicate. They actually rank 2nd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 91.0 yards per game. They rank 8th in total defense (324.3 yards/game) and 4th in total offense (415.3 yards/game) coming into the week. That is the sign of a very good team, not one that is 1-3 on the season.

We all know about Seattle’s dominance at home over the past few years. However, this team has not been nearly as effective on the road. The Seahawks are 0-1 on the road this season with a 21-30 loss at San Diego despite being a 5-point favorite. They were really dominated in that game as they only put up 288 yards of offense and gave up 377 yards on defense, getting outgained by 89 yards in the loss.

Plays on underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) – with a poor scoring defense – allowing 24 or more points/game, after a loss by 28 or more points are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Redskins have won each of their last six regular season meetings with the Seahawks. Seattle is just 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games following a bye week. The Seahawks are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games in October.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Jets +7

The San Diego Chargers are overvalued right now due to their three straight victories, while the New York Jets are undervalued due to their three straight losses coming in. Oddsmakers have tacked on a few too many points to the Chargers here as I believe they should only be about a 4-point favorite.

The value is clearly with the road underdog Jets, who need a win this week if they want any chance of making the playoffs. They have to be optimistic because they are only one game back in the AFC East, which is wide open.  Three teams are tied fir the division lead at 2-2, meaning the Jets are just one game back and right in it.

I have no doubt that the Jets are better than a 1-3 team. All three of their losses have come to good teams in the Packers, Bears and Lions. All three were one-possession games as they were decided by eight points or less. It is a sign that this team is a lot more competitive in 2014, and they should be showing some great value going forward as they will remain under the radar because of their record to this point.

The one stat that shows the Jets are better than their record is that they rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 75.0 yards per game on the season. They rank 9th in the league in total offense (366.3 yards/game), and 3rd in total defense (291.3 yards/game). Geno Smith is receiving a lot of grief, but the team held an offensive players-only meeting and will likely rebound on that side of the ball this week.

“No grievances,” Smith said. “I understand the semantics are a huge thing in this market, but no grievance. I don’t want you guys to get that misunderstood. No one’s hanging their head around here, no one’s sad, no one’s down on themselves. We’re ready to go out and play.”

Simply put, the Chargers are overvalued due to their perfect 4-0 ATS start against a very soft schedule. They have a false sense of security right now after their blowout win over the Jaguars last week. I look for them to slip up this week, especially with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Here is a list of the players who are questionable for San Diego: DE Corey Liuget, WR Malcolm Floyd, C Rich Ohrnberger, CB Jason Verrett, LB Jeremiah Attaochu, LB Reggie Walker.  These are the guys that are doubtful or out: CB Shareece Wright, LB Manti Te'o, LB Melvin Ingram, RB Danny Woodhead, RB Ryan Matthews, C Nick Hardwick, G Jeromey Clary.  Most of these guys listed are starters, so the Chargers are really having to go deep on their 53-man roster to find replacements.

San Diego is 0-7 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive overs during the last three seasons. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to San Diego.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New York Giants -4

It was going to take some time for the new West Coast System to come along in New York. The first two games were certainly not up to par offensively, but the last two have shown that Eli Manning is finally starting to get comfortable. The Giants beat the Texans 30-17 at home in Week 3 before going on the road and topping the Redskins 45-14 last week.

Manning went 21-of-28 passing for 234 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans, while Rashad Jennings rushed for 176 yards and a score in the win. Manning went 28-of-39 for 300 yards and four touchdowns with one pick against the Redskins. The Giants also managed to rush for 154 yards as a team. The improvement of Manning, coupled with a balanced offensive attack thanks to a new-found ground game, have really shown through the past two weeks.

Now, the Giants will be the fresher team in this one because they played last Thursday and have had an extra three days to rest. The Falcons could really use some rest after their embarrassing 28-41 loss to the Vikings and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater last week. They have all kinds of injury problems right now that won't be fixed in a week's time.

Indeed, the Falcons were forced to use their starting tight end at right tackle against Minnesota because of all of the injuries suffered along the offensive line during the loss. Center Joe Hawley, guard Justin Blalock, tackle Lamar Holmes, guard Jon Asamoah, tackle Sam Baker and tackle Mike Johnson are all injured. There’s a good chance that none of these guys play this week as they are all either listed as questionable or out.  Also, third receiver Harry Douglas is questionable after missing last week with a foot injury.

That's bad news for Matt Ryan as he figures to be under pressure all game long against a Giants' defense that is vastly improved up front and in the secondary.  They harassed Ryan Fitzpatrick and forced him into three interceptions in Week 3.  Kirk Cousins was under constant pressure last week, which led to him throwing four interceptions as the Redskins turned the ball over six times.  Both of those teams have much better offensive lines than the one the Giants will be teeing off on Sunday.

Atlanta has just as big of problems on the other side of the ball. It could not stop anyone last year defensively, and that appears to be the case again in 2014. The Falcons gave up a whopping 558 total yards to the Vikings last week with 241 on the ground and 317 through the air. They also allowed 472 yards to the Bengals and 472 yards to the Saints. They currently rank 31st in the league in total defense at 429.8 yards per game.  They are expected to be without their defensive leader in safety William Moore, who suffered a shoulder injury last week and has been placed on the IR.

The Falcons are 1-9 in their last 10 road games dating back to last season.  They are getting outscored by an average of 13.5 points per game on the road this season.  Their 10-24 loss at Cincinnati in Week 2 was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They were actually outgained 309-472 in that contest and the Bengals missed three field goals.  They just don't play well on the road, especially outdoors.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ATLANTA) – after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Atlanta is 3-18 ATS in its last 21 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. New York is 35-20 ATS in its last 55 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Texans +6.5

The Dallas Cowboys are in a massive letdown spot here off their win over the Saints Sunday night. I do have to admit that the Cowboys have been better than expected, but at the same time this team has a lot of flaws that will be exposed in the coming weeks. They won’t be in a great state of mind mentally off that big win. I believe they are simply overvalued here due to their three straight victories as they should not be more than a 3 to 4-point favorite in this one.

Without question, Dallas still has a defense that is extremely vulnerable, just as it was last season when it ranked dead last in the league in total defense. It is giving up 379.9 yards per game thus far in 2014 to rank 24th in the league in total defense. Those numbers would be worse if the Cowboys didn’t hold the ball for over 40 minutes against the Titans. They also had the ball for most of the San Francisco game due to turnovers and short fields for the 49ers.  They did give up 438 total yards to the Saints last week but were bailed out by turnovers.

Now, star cornerback Morris Claiborne is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL suffered last week.  Also, starting linebacker Bruce Carter is expected to miss Sunday's game due to a quad injury.  This is a defense that was already without LB Sean Lee and DE Demarcus Lawrence.  Everyone is saying that the Cowboys' defense isn't as bad as it was last year, but give it some time and I believe you will see that it is every bit as bad due to the lack of talent and the injuries.

Houston was a team I had my eye on coming into this season as being the most improved in the league. That has proven to be the case thus far as it has opened 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. I still believe the Texans aren’t getting the respect they deserve from the books, and that is reflected in this line as they are a 6.5-point underdog. The betting public is jumping on the Dallas bandwagon while completely ignoring the 3-1 start by the Texans.

This is such a big letdown spot for the Cowboys. Not only are they coming off the win over the Saints last week, they also have a road trip to Seattle on deck next week. I foresee them laying an egg here, which is something they have been accustomed to doing over the last several years. That will allow the Texans to stay within the number and possibly pull off the upset. Either way, I’m not so sure that Houston isn’t the better team here anyway.

Plays against favorites (DALLAS) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Dallas is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 off a game where it controlled the ball for 34-plus minutes and had 24-plus first downs.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -10

The New Orleans Saints certainly have their backs against the wall now after an ugly 1-3 start to the season that nobody could have predicted. They lost on last-second field goals on the road to both the Falcons and Browns in their first two games. They were blown out by the Cowboys 17-38 last week in a game that was closer than the final would indicate. They were only outgained 438-445 by the Cowboys, but shot themselves in the foot by finishing -3 in turnover differential.

The schedule has been tough to this point, but it gets much easier the rest of the way as they still have seven home games remaining. In their lone home game this season, the Saints took care of business in a 20-9 victory over Minnesota as a 9.5-point favorite in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They actually outgained the Vikings 396-247 for the game.

To say the Saints have been a covering machine at home would be a massive understatement. Indeed, New Orleans is a perfect 17-0-1 ATS in its last 18 home games with Sean Payton as head coach dating back to the start of the 2011-12 season, including playoffs. New Orleans has outscored opponents by an average of 17.6 points in winning each of its nine games at the Superdome since the start of 2013.

While I have no doubt the Saints are better than their 1-3 record and could easily be 3-1 right now, the Bucs are every bit as bad as their 1-3 record and should be 0-4. The Steelers simply let them off the hook last week with all kinds of penalties and some questionable play calling toward the end. Remember, this team lost at home to both Carolina and St. Louis to open the season before getting throttled at Atlanta 14-56 in Week 3.

The Saints have proven that they have the firepower on offense this year.  They rank 3rd in the league in total offense at 425.8 yards per game.  I just don't believe the Bucs have the firepower to keep up with them in this one.  Indeed, Tampa Bay ranks just 30th in the league in total offense at 290.8 yards per game.  I realize the Saints' defense hasn't been great on the road, but they are a completely different animal at home when they feed off the energy of their home fans.

New Orleans is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Tampa Bay while outscoring the Bucs by an average of 17.2 points per game. Each of the last three home meetings have resulted in blowout victories with the Saints winning by 25, 41 and 11 points, respectively.

The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. awful passing defensive that allow 260 or more yards per game. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC foes. The Saints are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home games. Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7

This is really a make or break game for the St. Louis Rams, who cannot afford to fall to 1-3 if they want any chance of making the playoffs. They will be laying it all on the line this week to get a victory. They will also the the fresher, more prepared team after having Week 4 off due to a bye. That’s going to be a huge advantage for them as they’ll be taking on a Philadelphia team that is simply banged up right now.

The Eagles were manhandled by the 49ers 26-21 last week. The only reason that game was close was because Philadelphia got three gift return touchdowns with two on special teams and one on defense. Their offense was limited to just 213 total yards with four turnovers against the 49ers. They suffered more injuries in that game that will really hurt them going forward.

Philadelphia’s entire starting offensive line returned intact this year. All five starters started all 16 games last season as it got very lucky in the health department. Last week against the 49ers, only one starting offensive lineman from last year was in the game at one point. That was Jason Peters, who even left last week’s game at one point with an injury.  This beat up O-line will struggle against one of the best D-Lines in the league in St. Louis.

After ranking 1st in the league in rushing last year, the Eagles are only 27th in rushing this year, averaging 87 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  That alone shows you the kind of shape the offensive line is in.  They have only rushed for a total of 76 yards over the last two weeks combined while averaging 2.1 yards per carry.  Nick Foles hasn't had any time in the pocket, and he's starting to watch for rushers instead of keeping his eyes downfield.  He has also taken a lot of hits through the first four weeks of the season.

St. Louis has been a completely different team since its ugly loss to Minnesota in Week 1. It went on the road to Tampa Bay and came away with a 19-17 victory as a 4-point underdog. It then led Dallas 21-3 early in the game before letting the lead slip away, eventually losing 31-34. It actually outgained the Cowboys by 108 total yards in that game and should have won, but had a dropped would-be touchdown by Jared Cook and had to settle for a field goal, which proved to be the difference.

The win over the Bucs and the narrow loss to the Cowboys both look a lot better after last week’s results, with the Bucs beating the Steelers on the road, and the Cowboys blowing out the Saints. The biggest reason for the Rams’ resurgence has been the play of backup quarterback Austin Davis. He leads the league with a ridiculous 72.3 completion percentage, and his 8.0 yards per attempt ranks 6th among quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Davis should have his way with a Philadelphia defense that was awful last year and hasn't been any better in 2014.  The Eagles rank 28th in the league in total defense at 391.2 yards per game allowed.  They have been owned in the running game and the passing game at times.  They gave up 169 rushing yards to the Colts in Week 2 and 218 to the 49ers last week.  They allowed 427 passing yards to the Redskins in Week 3.  Not helping matters is that their best defender in LB Mychal Kendricks missed last week and is doubtful to play this week.  Also, starting CB Brandon Boykin is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Simply put, the Eagles have no home-field advantage. They have gone a woeful 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 home games. Time and time again, they have been overvalued at home. They were lucky to come back from a 17-0 deficit at home to the Jaguars in their opener. They also trailed Washington for the majority of the game in their last home contest, eventually winning 37-34 as a 4-point favorite. There’s a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well. 

Plays against favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by 40+ YPG, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 80-36 (69%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Rams Sunday.

20* Utah/UCLA Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +13.5

The Utah Utes (3-1) are a one-point loss to Washington State (27-28) last week away from being undefeated on the season.  They have blown out Fresno State (59-27) at home as well as coming away with an impressive win at Michigan State (26-10).  They have played a tough schedule to this point and have shown that they are a much-improved team in 2014.

UCLA (4-0) did not look good in the first three weeks of the season.  It failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games, winning at Virginia (28-20) as a 19-point favorite, beating Memphis (42-35) at home as a 22-point favorite, and knocking off Texas (20-17) on the road as an 8-point favorite.  Those results were certainly reason to worry about the Bruins.

However, they came back with an inspired effort last week after having lost to Arizona State last year, which cost them a shot at a Pac-12 Title.  Of course they were going to be up for that game, and they showed it by throttling the Sun Devils (62-27) on the road.  The thing is that ASU is way down this season with only two returning starters on defense, plus they lost starting quarterback Taylor Kelly to injury, so he didn't even play in that game.  This team just isn't the same without Kelly running the show.

Now, the public perception is that UCLA is the team that we thought they were going to be coming into the season.  That could not be further from the truth.  I'm not willing to just throw out their first three games of the season, which showed that they weren't the team they were cracked up to be.  The Bruins still have a lot of flaws, yet they are being asked to win by two touchdowns against an improved Utah team this week to cover the spread.

There's no question that the Bruins are overvalued this week in my mind.  Now, they are in a very tough spot mentally.  They just got revenge on ASU and are undefeated on the season.  That alone sets them up for a letdown spot.  However, the bigger situational factor in play here is the fact that UCLA has Oregon on deck next week.  Without question, the Bruins will be looking ahead to that game, and the Utes won't have their full attention because of it.

We've seen the last two years that Utah is capable of beating UCLA, but it has come up just short both times.  UCLA beat Utah 21-14 as a 9.5-point home favorite in 2012, only outgaining the Utes 354-319 for the game.  Then, last year, the Utes lost 27-34 at home to the Bruins as a 5-point underdog.  They were only outgained 387-404 in that game, and the only reason they lost was because they committed a whopping six turnovers.  I look for this game to be decided by a touchdown or less as well, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Utes pull the upset.

Plays against home favorites (UCLA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +7.5

This is essentially a must-win game for LSU if it wants to compete for an SEC West Title. That extra motivation will certainly be in play here after the loss to Mississippi State in the conference opener. A very tough schedule thus far that has featured Wisconsin and the Bulldogs will have this team battle-tested as it goes into Auburn this weekend.

LSU fell way behind against Mississippi State, but rallied and made a game out of it late thanks to the play of sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris. He took the place of the ineffective Anthony Jennings in that game, and went 6-of-9 passing for 140 yards and two touchdowns to lead LSU back late.

Harris continued his stellar play against New Mexico State, going 11-of-14 for 178 yards and three touchdowns without a pick. All seven of his drives against the Aggies resulted in touchdowns for the Tigers.  Jennings has completed 50.6 percent of his passes (42 of 83) for 734 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions. In a smaller body of work, Harris has completed 73.3 percent (22 of 30) for 394 yards and six scores with one INT.  This guy is the real deal and the future of the program.  He'll get the start this week.

Auburn is still overvalued after making the national title game last year. It won a whopping six games by a touchdown or less in 2013, and it already has one of those on its résumé thus far. It beat Kansas State on the road 20-14 in a game that it should have lost. The Wildcats missed three field goals in that game and committed three turnovers, including one that would have been a touchdown that bounce off a receiver’s chest and wound up being an interception in Auburn’s end zone.

LSU beat Auburn 35-21 at home last year to continue its domination in this series. Indeed, LSU has won six of the last seven meetings with Auburn. LSU led 21-0 at halftime last year with Auburn not once making it past the LSU 41-yard line. Auburn would make a bit of a comeback after halftime, but this game was already decided at that point as LSU handed Auburn its only regular season defeat.

Plays against home favorites (AUBURN) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. LSU is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 road games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game. Auburn is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  Bet LSU Saturday.

15* Stanford/Notre Dame Rivalry Play on Notre Dame +2.5

I have been very impressed with Notre Dame this season behind the play of quarterback Everett Golson. It has opened 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread with its only non-cover coming against Purdue (30-14) as a 30-point favorite. That was a clear letdown spot for the Irish off the big 31-0 win over Michigan as a 4-point favorite. It has also beaten Rice 48-17 at home as a 19.5-point favorite, and Syracuse 31-15 on the road as a 7.5-point favorite.

Golson is now 14-1 as a starter at Notre Dame with his only loss coming against Florida State in the 2012-13 BCS Championship. He is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 1,142 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 104 yards and four scores this year.

The junior was suspended for all of the 2013 season, which allowed him to work on his game while also watching from the outside to work on the mental side of it, too. It’s clearly paying big dividends this year as the offense is averaging 35.0 points and 444.2 yards per game, and Golson is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender.

There's no denying that Stanford has an elite defense. It has put up tremendous numbers this season, but a closer look at the schedule shows that it hasn't been as impressive as it is perceived to be.  The Cardinal have not faced an offense as good as the one they will be up against this week.  Their four opponents have been Cal Davis, USC, Army and Washington.  USC is by far the best offensive team they have played, and Washington has one of the worst offenses in the Pac-12.

The problem for this team is the play of quarterback Kevin Hogan, who just holds the Cardinal down. They had nine trips inside the USC 30-yard line and only came away with 10 points, losing by a final of 10-13. Last week, the defense limited Washington to 13 points, but Hogan was only able to muster up 20 points as the Cardinal got a late score to win by a touchdown 20-13. That was not a very good Washington team, and USC is obviously not a great team either as it lost to Boston College.

Despite playing a tougher schedule than Stanford, the Fighting Irish have held their own defensively as well.  They are only giving up 11.5 points per game on the season.  They shut out Michigan 31-0 and have held all four of their opponents in Rice, Michigan, Purdue and Syracuse to 17 points or less.  The Cardinal may have a slight edge on defense, but the difference in this game will be Golson outplaying Hogan by a landslide, as well as the home-field for the Fighting Irish.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Stanford and Notre Dame. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings. Even in a down year last season, the Irish hung tough on the road and only lost by a final of 20-27 as a 16.5-point underdog. With Golson running the show this time around, I look for him to improve to 15-1 as a starter overall, including 2-0 against Stanford.

Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Pac-12 opponents. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on TCU +6

I picked TCU (3-0) to surprise and win the Big 12 this season and have seen nothing to this point to change my mind. This will be Oklahoma’s toughest test of the entire season, and I look for it to fail and come away with a loss in Forth Worth Saturday afternoon. The perception on the Horned Frogs is that they are down since they joined the Big 12, but they simply have had inexperience and close losses over the past two seasons.

Two of those close losses last year came to both Oklahoma and Baylor. The Horned Frogs were only beaten by the Sooners 17-20 on the road as a 10-point underdog. They then gave Baylor a run for their money in their season finale, losing 38-41 at home as a 13-point dog. Remember, this team went 4-8 last year, but they were much better than their record would indicate. That is going to show in 2014 as Gary Patterson has his best team yet with 16 returning starters and a hungry, talented, experienced bunch.

I love what the new up-tempo, spread offense is doing for the Horned Frogs this year. They are averaging 44.7 points and 532.0 yards per game behind the play of junior quarterback Trevone Boykin. He is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 858 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception, while also rushing for 183 yards and three scores.

The defense has been dynamite and is the backbone of this team after finishing 1st in the conference in total defense last year. The Frogs are giving up just 7.0 points and 218.7 yards per game. Their 30-7 win over Minnesota looks a lot better now after the Golden Gophers went into Michigan and came away with a 30-14 win last week. TCU held a very good Minnesota rushing attack to just 99 yards on 36 carries. It is allowing just 92 rushing yards per game and 2.1 per carry this season.

Admittedly, Oklahoma has been better than I expected it to be coming into the season. However, this team hasn’t faced the toughest of schedules. Also, its 34-10 win over Tennessee at home wasn’t the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Vols were going in for a TD in the fourth quarter that would have made it a 10-point game, but threw a 100-yard pick six. The 45-33 win at West Virginia saw the Mountaineers put up 513 total yards, but the three turnovers they committed really were the different in the game.

Despite not getting the results that they wanted in their first two seasons in the Big 12, the Horned Frogs played the Sooners tough in both meetings.  As stated before, they only lost 17-20 at Oklahoma last year.  They also lost 17-24 at home to Oklahoma in 2012.  Both meetings were decided by a touchdown or less, and this one is likely to come down to the wire as well, which is where the 6-point spread comes into play.  Except this time, because this is arguably Patterson's best TCU team yet, I look for the Frogs to pull the upset.  We'll just take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on any team (TCU) – with a great scoring defense – allowing 14 or less points/game, after three straight wins by 21 or more points are 87-44 (66.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. TCU is 59-37 ATS in its last 96 home games. The Horned Frogs are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games after allowing 14 points or less last game. Gary Patterson is 63-15 at home as the coach of TCU. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet TCU Saturday.